Vol. 31 | No. 9
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
38
Policy Issues 2009 tax revision
40
Economic News Briefing
45
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Although the Korean economy overall continued to improve, some indicators such as investment did not pick up in July as temporary factors that had boosted the economy became less influential. In July, mining and manufacturing production recovered from its loss for the first time in 10 months, posting a year-on-year rise of 0.7 percent, while registering a month-on-month increase for the seventh straight month, rising 2.0 percent from a month ago. Service output dropped 0.8 percent month-on-month, but on a year-on-year basis, the index posted an increase for four months in a row, showing a rise of 0.8 percent. Consumer goods sales fell 1.6 percent month-on-month in July, the first drop in four months, affected by a decrease in durable goods sales as the individual consumption tax reduction on automobiles ended, whereas year-on-year consumer goods sales rose for the third consecutive month, registering a 1.9 percent increase. Facilities investment tumbled 11.6 percent month-on-month, and 18.2 percent year-on-year in July, as machinery and transportation equipment investments slid. Construction completed rose 1.8 percent year-on-year, while falling 8.9 percent month-on-month due to high base effects created by early fiscal spending. Exports in August decelerated its year-on-year decline from the previous month’s 21.8 percent to 20.6 percent, as semiconductor and petroleum product exports continued to improve. The total number of workers hired decreased year-on-year in July from the previous month’s gain of 4,000 to a loss of 76,000, affected by low employment in the private sector, in particular manufacturing and construction. However, unemployment fell from 3.9 percent a month ago to 3.7 percent. Year-on-year consumer prices increased at a faster pace in August from 1.6 percent to 2.2 percent, due to price rises in oil, and agriculture & livestock products. Although domestic financial markets continue to be stabilized with rising stock prices and supply-demand balance in the foreign exchange market, uncertainties surrounding international financial markets exist, distressed US commercial real estate among others. To sum up, although the domestic economy keeps recovering amid those of developed countries improving, the private sector shows relatively slow recovery and downside risks such as a possible rise in oil prices exist. The Korean government will carry out measures to create jobs, support the working class, and boost consumption and investment as planned, while continuing expansionary macroeconomic policies. On the other hand, the government will early-spend second half budgets in the third quarter, increase public firms’ investment in order to make up for low investment, and closely monitor the domestic economy to detect any causes for instability, in particular the overheated real estate market. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy Expectations for global economic recovery increased, as developed countries such as the US, Japan and eurozone posted much improved economic growth in the second quarter than in the first quarter. Japan, Germany and France saw their economies grow from the previous quarter for the first time in five quarters.
US
The US economy hinted at recovery, as industrial production increased month-on-month in July for the first time in 10 months and the employment situation improved. Industrial production rose 0.5 percent month-on-month in July for the first time since October 2008, as Cash-for-Clunkers positively affected the auto industry. In July, both existing home and new home sales expanded by 7.2 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively, from the preceding month, along with the home price index increasing for two straight months. Job markets in July improved as non-farm payrolls slowed the decline and unemployment fell from 9.5 percent to 9.4 percent month-on-month. The Federal Reserve, at the Federal Open Market Committee in August, evaluated that the current economic downturn was drawing to a close and the economy would start to rebound after the second half of 2009. However, the Fed commented that the growth of the economy would be constrained by long-term unemployment and distressed commercial real estate. The Federal Reserve, at the FOMC meeting, stated that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.0 to 0.25 percent, and purchase US$300 billion of Treasury securities by the end of October, one month extension from the end of September. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditure - Corporate fixed investment
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
0.4
-0.7
1.5
-2.7
-5.4
-6.4
-1.0
-
-
-0.2
-0.6
0.1
-3.5
-3.1
0.6
-1.0
-
-
1.6
1.9
1.4
-6.1
-19.5
-39.2
-10.9
-
-
-22.9
-28.2
-15.8
-15.9
-23.2
-38.2
-22.8
-
-
Industrial production
-1.8
0.1
-1.2
-2.3
-3.4
-5.2
-2.9
-0.4
0.5
Retail sales
-0.7
-0.5
0.4
-1.4
-6.6
-1.4
-0.4
0.8
-0.1
New home sales
-37.4
-14.8
-9.6
-9.8
-15.0
-13.5
8.6
9.1
9.6
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)2
-257
-113
-153
-208
-553
-691
-422
-443
-247
3.9
4.2
4.3
5.2
1.5
-0.2
-0.9
-1.4
-2.1
- Construction investment for housing
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Monthly average
4
September 2009
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
Despite sluggish exports, China’s domestic demand including investment and consumption continued to improve, thanks to economic stimulus packages. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector, hovered over 50 for the sixth consecutive month. PMI (base = 50) 45.3 (Jan 2009)
49.0 (Feb)
52.4 (Mar)
53.5 (Apr)
53.1 (May)
53.2 (Jun)
53.3 (Jul)
54.0 (Aug)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2007
2009
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Real GDP
13.0
9.0
10.6
10.1
9.0
6.8
6.1
7.9
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
25.8
26.1
25.9
26.8
27.6
26.1
28.6
33.6
33.6
32.9
Retail sales
16.8
21.6
20.6
22.2
23.2
20.4
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.2
Industrial production
18.5
12.9
16.4
15.9
13.0
6.4
5.1
9.0
10.7
10.8
Exports
25.7
17.2
21.4
22.4
22.9
4.1
-19.7
-23.5
-21.4
-23.0
Consumer prices
4.8
5.9
8.0
7.8
5.3
2.5
-0.6
-1.5
-1.7
-1.8
Producer prices
3.1
6.9
6.9
8.4
9.7
2.5
-4.6
-7.2
-7.8
-8.2
1. The rate accumulated from January to February
Japan
Japan’s economy grew 0.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, the first growth in four consecutive quarters. Mining and manufacturing production, in particular that of automobiles and semiconductors, continued to increase, while job markets remained weak with unemployment landing at 5.7 percent in July. 2007
Real GDP Industrial and mining production
(Percentage change from previous period) 2009
2008
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
2.3
-0.7
1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-3.5
-3.1
0.9
-
-
2.8
-3.4
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-12.0
-22.2
8.3
2.3
1.9
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
-0.1
0.3
1.8
0.2
0.8
-1.5
-3.9
-2.8
-2.9
-2.5
Exports (y-o-y, %)
11.5
-3.5
5.9
1.8
3.2
-23.1
-46.9
-38.5
-35.7
-36.5
0.0
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.0
-0.1
-1.0
-1.8
-2.2
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
Eurozone
Eurozone’s economy in the second quarter posted a contraction for the fifth consecutive quarter, but decelerated the decline at 0.1 percent from the previous quarter. However, indicators reflecting economic sentiments such as the Business Confidence Index and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) improved: the former increasing for five straight months to land at 80.6 and the latter hitting 50.0, reaching the base for the first time in 15 months. (Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Real GDP
2.7
0.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.1
-
-
Industrial production
3.7
-1.8
1.8
-2.2
-2.8
-6.2
-7.5
-3.0
-0.6
-
Retail sales
1.5
-0.8
0.1
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
11.1
3.7
6.8
8.5
5.7
-5.0
-21.3
-24.0
-22.2
-
2.1
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.8
2.3
1.0
0.2
-0.1
-0.7
Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
6
September 2009
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2009 posted a quarter-onquarter increase of 3.6 percent, and a year-on-year decline of 0.8 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Private consumption
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
20081
20091
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
5.1
5.4
4.7
0.9
4.0
2.3
1.4
-3.7
-4.4
-0.8
-
0.9
0.4
-
1.1
-0.2
0.0
-4.6
0.4
3.6
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales in July fell month-on-month for the first time in four months, down 1.6 percent, but rose 1.9 percent year-on-year, posting an increase for three straight months. On a month-on-month basis, durable goods sales, affected by the termination of the individual consumption tax reduction on automobiles, fell 14.5 percent, leading the decline in consumer goods sales, while sales of semi-durable goods and non-durable goods rose 0.4 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, sales of semi-durable goods such as clothing dropped 3.2 percent, whereas those of non-durable goods including automobile fuel increased 4.7 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q21
May
Jun1
Jul1
Consumer goods sales
1.0
4.4
2.9
1.4
-4.2
-4.9
1.6
1.6
7.5
1.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
1.1
-1.3
-0.1
-3.5
0.4
5.0
4.9
2.0
-1.6
- Durable goods
2
1.9
9.5
8.7
0.0
-9.9
-13.6
4.0
3.8
21.9
-0.1
-2.0
9.6
7.1
-4.9
-19.5
-21.3
18.4
20.6
60.0
10.3
- Semi-durable goods4
-2.4
3.8
-2.1
0.6
-9.9
-0.9
0.3
0.9
-1.1
-3.2
- Non-durable goods
0.7
1.9
0.3
1.2
-0.4
-1.4
1.0
0.7
3.5
4.7
3
路Automobiles 5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable good: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.
Sales at department stores rose for the fifth straight month and those at specialized retailers for the third straight month, whereas sales at large discounters fell for the second straight month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers2
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
0.5
4.3
3.7
0.2
-5.0
1.4
2.2
7.6
3.1
-0.2
-1.2
-1.7
2.0
0.7
-1.0
-8.1
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.
8
September 2009
May
Jun1
Jul1
2.8
4.6
2.7
3.3
-5.0
-2.9
0.2
-4.8
-5.3
-6.9
2.6
1.8
12.2
3.6
1
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Year-on-year consumer goods sales in August are expected to continue its growth, given the improvements in advanced estimates and consumer sentiment, with the month-on-month index remaining steady. Domestic credit card spending rose 10.9 percent, back to the double-digit growth in two months since June. Sales at department stores increased 7.7 percent, posting an increase for six consecutive months, while those at large discounters slowed the fall. Domestic sales of Korean cars continued its steady climb for two straight months since July, while gasoline sales rose for the sixth straight month, up 3.9 percent. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 6.2 (Mar 2009)
7.0 (Apr)
8.7 (May)
12.4 (Jun)
7.3 (Jul)
10.9 (Aug)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 4.5 (Mar 2009)
2.8 (Apr)
5.4 (May)
3.6 (Jun)
4.0 (Jul)
7.7 (Aug)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) -0.8 (Mar 2009)
0.1 (Apr)
1.6 (May)
-1.4 (Jun)
-6.0 (Jul)
-1.5 (Aug)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) -15.4 (Mar 2009)
-14.9 (Apr)
15.3 (May)
46.0 (Jun)
10.8 (Jul)
13.0 (Aug)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 3.7 (Mar 2009)
0.1 (Apr)
9.7 (May)
11.1 (Jun)
15.8 (Jul)
3.9 (Aug)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for August data)
Stabilizing prices and financial markets, and improving consumer sentiment are all expected to positively affect consumer spending. Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 3.9 (Mar 2009)
3.6 (Apr)
2.7 (May)
2.0 (Jun)
1.6 (Jul)
2.2 (Aug)
The won/dollar exchange rate (monthly average) 1,462 (Mar 2009)
1,342 (Apr)
1,259 (May)
1,261 (Jun)
1,264 (Jul)
1,238 (Aug)
1,401(May)
1,395 (Jun)
1,460 (Jul)
1,579 (Aug)
KOSPI (monthly average) 1,140 (Mar 2009)
1,322 (Apr)
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) 85 (Feb 2009)
84 (Mar)
98 (Apr)
105 (May)
106 (Jun)
Employment (y-o-y, thousand) -195 (Mar 2009)
10
September 2009
-188 (Apr)
-219 (May)
4 (Jun)
-76 (Jul)
109 (Jul)
114 (Aug)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2009 posted a year-on-year loss of 15.9 percent and a quarter-on-quarter gain of 10.1 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Facility investment
20081
20091
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
9.3
8.0
-2.0
1.5
1.1
4.3
-14.0
-23.5
-15.9
2
-
3.8
-
-0.4
0.4
0.2
-14.2
-11.2
10.1
- Machinery
9.2
8.5
-2.7
-1.2
-0.1
6.5
-15.3
-24.0
-19.6
- Transportation equipment
9.6
5.8
0.4
12.2
5.1
-3.6
-9.9
-21.8
-3.2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in July plummeted year-on-year and month-on-month, as investments both in machinery and transportation equipment worsened, affected by a high base effect from the end of June when the first half performance came out, and reduced tax incentives for automobiles. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Facility investment (estimated) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Machinery - Transportation equipment
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
8.2
-4.3
-13.4
-17.7
-13.4
-16.2
-4.9
-18.2
-
-
-9.3
-11.6
6.6
7.3
10.4
-11.6
7.5
-5.7
-14.5
-21.9
-19.5
-22.2
-13.5
-23.6
1
May
Jun1
Jul1
11.3
1.5
-9.0
0.4
11.3
7.2
31.7
2.2
20.6
-5.5
-47.3
-33.8
-14.1
-21.3
2.1
7.3
- Public
-11.4
4.9
-3.5
150.5
30.9
10.5
45.1
498.8
- Private
24.5
-6.2
-53.9
-42.9
-18.5
-22.9
-6.2
-32.9
21.7
18.9
6.3
-20.9
-18.3
-32.2
-2.1
-19.7
1.7
-2.2
-15.6
-18.9
-8.7
-11.1
-3.7
-1.9
Domestic machinery orders
Machinery imports Facility investment adjustment pressure3
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p)
Facility investment in August is projected to increase month-on-month, considering improvements in indices such as domestic machinery orders, capital goods imports and consumer sentiment.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100) Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Manufacturing facility investment results
89
91
93
95
-
Manufacturing facility investment projections
85
89
91
94
97
Source: The Bank of Korea
12
September 2009
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2009 rose 3.7 percent year-on-year, or 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
1.4
0.4
-2.1
-1.9
-0.3
0.2
-5.6
1.6
3.7
-
2.9
-
-2.5
-0.3
0.1
-3.0
5.2
1.7
-0.0
0.7
-4.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
-14.3
-11.1
-3.5
3.8
-0.1
1.3
-3.2
-0.7
0.7
5.7
24.9
14.3
3
- Building construction - Civil engineering works
20091
20081
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period
In July, construction completed (current value) fell 8.9 percent month-on-month due to a high base effect from the end of June when the first half performance came out, but rose 1.8 percent year-on-year as civil engineering works in the public sector continued to grow. Construction completed in the public sector rose 22.3 percent year-on-year, while that in the private sector fell 9.2 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
6.6
4.7
-2.2
4.5
-
-
-6.2
- Building construction
6.2
1.7
- Civil engineering works
6.9
10.6
Construction completed (Seasonally adjusted)
2
May
Jun1
Jul1
7.0
-0.7
15.2
1.8
7.7
2.2
-3.2
13.2
-8.9
-10.6
-6.0
-3.1
-6.8
1.6
-5.5
13.6
24.8
26.5
11.0
40.9
17.4
1
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period
Construction completed in August is expected to increase as a high base effect from early fiscal spending in the first-half eases and budget spending on SOC increases. As for construction orders, one of key leading indicators, civil engineering orders rose 19.2 percent, while building construction orders fell 5.6 percent. The business survey index (BSI) for construction is nearing 100, the base. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Construction orders
23.6
-9.0
-6.5
-16.5
- Public
40.3
9.1
5.0
- Private
16.5
-15.8
Building permit area
13.3
-20.1
Q2
May
Jun1
Jul1
-2.0
-18.5
17.9
2.9
22.0
186.5
71.9
310.3
111.7
15.3
-38.4
-62.4
-56.3
-54.2
-31.6
-41.9
-31.6
-32.7
-37.1
-2.4
-
1. Preliminary
Business survey index for construction (base=100) 72.3 (Mar 2009)
80 (Apr)
86.6 (May)
92.2 (Jun)
99.3 (Jul)
Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
September 2009
1
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Korea National Statistical Office (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in August dropped 20.6 percent year-on-year to US$29.08 billion, improving slightly from the previous month’s fall of 21.8 percent. The fall in August exports was mainly attributed to a decline in vessel exports and a setback to automobile exports driven by labor strike. Vessel exports plummeted 33.6 percent to US$2.6 billion from the preceding month’s drop of 5.4 percent to US$3.4 billion. Improvement in exports excluding vessels, however, was apparent as they posted a decline of 18.7 percent from the last month’s fall of 23.4 percent. By export category, liquid crystal devices (up 31.9%) continued the upward trend, while other exports, led by semiconductors and petroleum products, slowed their pace of decline. By regional category, exports to most regions stayed on the downward trajectory, while exports to China (down 13.2%) and the US (down 13.1%) fell at a slower pace than other regions. (US$ billion) 2008
2009
Annual
Aug
Jan-Aug
Q1
Q2
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Jan-Aug
422.01
36.61
291.51
74.57
91.10
28.15
32.63
32.02
29.08
226.57
(y-o-y, %)
13.6
18.1
22.0
-25.0
-20.4
-28.5
-12.4
-21.8
-20.6
-22.3
Average daily exports
1.53
1.63
1.60
1.10
1.31
1.28
1.39
1.28
1.26
1.22
435.27
40.42
304.22
71.29
73.28
23.09
25.36
27.62
27.41
199.74
(y-o-y, %)
22.0
36.4
32.8
-32.8
-36.2
-40.3
-32.9
-35.7
-32.2
-34.3
Average daily imports
1.58
1.80
1.67
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.19
1.08
-13.27
-3.81
-12.71
3.27
17.82
5.06
7.21
4.41
1.67
26.84
Exports
Imports
Trade balance
Imports in August plunged 32.2 percent year-on-year to US$27.41 billion. Compared with the first half, imports decelerated the decline, led by capital goods and consumer goods. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) -34.9 (Q1 2009)
-43.6 (Q2)
-44.8 (Jul)
-40.8 (Aug 1-20)
-14.6 (Jul)
-17.5 (Aug 1-20)
-29.3 (Jul)
-12.8 (Aug 1-20)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) -29.1 (Q1 2009)
-23.6 (Q2)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) -29.5 (Q1 2009)
-24.4 (Q2)
August trade posted a surplus of US$1.67 billion, staying in the black for seven straight months since February 2009.
16
September 2009
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production In July, mining and manufacturing production rose 2.0 percent month-on-month, continuing an increase since January 2009, while on a year-on-year basis, the production increased for the first time since September 2008, gaining 0.7 percent. By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 5.2%), and automobiles (up 9.9%) continued to improve month-on-month, while machinery (down 1.8%) fell slightly. Shipments decreased at a slightly faster pace year-on-year from 0.6 percent a month ago to 1.4 percent, while the level of inventory fell at a slower rate from the previous month’s 16.7 percent to 15.0 percent. By business category, shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 11%), transportation devices (up 13.1%), and automobiles (up 8.2%) posted a year-on-year increase. The inventories of semiconductors and parts (down 35.0%), computers (down 31.5%), and machineries (down 15.7%) fell. Judging from the shipment/inventory cycle and inventory to shipment ratio, the economy continued to move towards a recovery phase with inventory adjustment nearing an end. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Q2
Jul
Q1
Q2
-
0.1
-1.3
-2.7
Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2009 May
Jun1
Jul1
11.3
1.4
5.7
2.0
1
(y-o-y)
3.0
8.9
8.6
-15.5
-6.2
-9.0
-1.2
0.7
- Manufacturing
3.0
9.3
8.6
-16.4
-6.7
-9.6
-1.5
0.8
·Heavy chemical industry
4.1
11.6
9.7
-17.0
-6.2
-9.1
-0.7
2.2
-2.2
-1.2
3.4
-13.5
-8.8
-11.9
-5.7
-6.3
·Light industry Shipment
2.4
6.6
7.9
-14.7
-5.9
-8.7
-0.6
-1.4
-0.7
1.7
5.0
-16.3
-6.6
-9.7
-0.4
-1.9
- Exports
7.1
14.3
12.3
-12.4
-4.7
-7.3
-0.8
-0.7
Inventory
7.3
16.2
14.5
-5.8
-16.6
-13.6
-16.6
-15.0
77.2
80.4
79.2
65.8
73.7
72.9
76.6
78.7
5.2
6.5
6.2
2.5
2.0
1.5
2.2
2.7
- Domestic demand
3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity 1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period
Mining and manufacturing production is likely to continue to rise in August due to a production increase amid the inventory adjustment, led by semiconductors and automobiles. However, the increase is projected to be limited, given the exports improving at a slow pace. Exports fell 20.6 in August after dropping 21.8 percent a month ago.
18
September 2009
6-1
Industrial production Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Korea National Statistical Office (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in July continued to expand for four consecutive months with a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percent. From a month earlier, however, it shifted to a slight decrease of 0.8 percent from a 1.9 percent gain of June when service activities in research and educational institutions were stronger wrapping up the first half of the year. By business category, healthcare & social welfare services (up 8.5%), real estate & renting services (up 7.7%) and financial & insurance services (up 6.4%) led the year-on-year increase in the service sector. Meanwhile, transportation services (down 7.7%) and educational services (down 2.4%) were down from a year earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
-0.4
Service activity index
100
3.4
6.7
4.8
3.2
-0.4
- Wholesale & retail
May
Jun1
Jul1
1.6
0.3
2.8
0.8
1
22.0
1.4
4.0
3.1
3.6
-4.6
-4.0
-2.2
-3.7
1.4
-1.5
- Transportation services
9.0
4.3
8.1
8.2
4.3
-3.2
-10.8
-9.4
-9.2
-7.8
-7.7
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
0.7
3.6
0.6
1.7
-3.0
-2.4
-0.5
-1.5
-0.2
-1.5
- Information & communication services
8.4
3.5
6.0
5.5
3.4
-0.2
-1.9
0.9
1.0
1.5
0.7
- Financial & insurance services
15.3
9.7
16.1
9.8
9.6
4.5
6.6
10.0
9.4
7.7
6.4
- Real estate & renting
6.3
-2.1
5.7
2.7
-8.4
-7.5
-3.1
1.6
-2.0
9.0
7.7
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
2.0
4.2
1.5
1.8
0.9
-1.9
3.1
-0.6
8.5
0.2
- Business services
2.9
4.6
8.0
7.7
3.2
0.1
-4.8
-6.6
-6.5
-6.1
-1.8
- Educational services
10.8
1.8
3.4
1.9
-0.5
2.3
3.7
6.9
4.5
2.7
-2.4
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
6.3
6.1
6.8
6.1
6.5
8.6
8.1
7.4
9.0
8.5
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.2
2.5
0.4
1.7
4.3
1.5
0.9
0.9
-1.2
2.1
- Membership organizations
3.8
0.1
1.9
1.0
-1.4
-1.0
-3.4
-5.2
-8.1
-1.4
-3.5
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
5.8
8.9
6.9
3.9
4.0
0.5
8.8
1.6
20.5
4.8
1. Preliminary
Service activity in August is expected to stay on an upward track given robust advance estimates of retailers’ sales and credit card spending as well as improved consumer sentiment. The pace of increase, however, is likely to be restrained by a delayed recovery of job markets. Consumer sentiment index (base=100) 98 (Apr 2009)
105 (May)
106 (Jun)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Employment (y-o-y, thousand) -219 (May 2009)
20
September 2009
4 (Jun)
-76 (Jul)
109 (Jul)
114 (Aug)
l es
l&
tate
ncia
& re
ranc
e se
ns
& Bus bus iness f ines acil s su ity m ppo ana rt se gem rvic ent es & Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea serv lthcare ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente serv rtainm ices ent , cu ltur al & spo Me rts m othe bersh r pe ip o rson rgan al s izati ervi ons Sew ces , re pair reco erage, & very was & re te m med ana iatio gem n ac ent, tivit mate ies rials
es
atio
rvic
unic
s
omm
rant
tail
insu
&c
stau
tion
& re
ion
& re
ntin g Pro tech fession nica al, s l se cien rvic tifi c es
Rea
Fina
ale
rtat
rma
els
Info
Hot
spo
oles
Tran
Wh
ex
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
July 2009 service industry by business
Source: Korea National Statistical Office (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in July declined by 76,000 year-on-year affected by deteriorated weather conditions during the employment survey period. Employment in the manufacturing sector stayed on a downward track declining by 173,000, mainly due to sluggish domestic demand and falling exports. Hiring in the construction sector continued to fall with a 127,000 decrease dragged by weak construction in the private sector and bad weather conditions during the survey period, despite increased orders of civil engineering works in the public sector. Employment in the service sector soared by 250,000 driven by the government’s job creation policies. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
Jul
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
May
Jun
Jul
Employment growth
145
153
209
173
141
54
-146
-134
-219
4
-76
- Manufacturing
-52
-47
-18
-34
-52
-103
-163
-151
-140
-157
-173
- Construction
-37
-34
-22
-46
-40
-41
-43
-113
-125
-88
-127
- Services
263
269
307
300
262
187
47
155
95
271
250
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-37
-47
-63
-54
-38
8
14
-25
-49
-25
-22
By status of workers, non-wage workers including self-employed workers plunged by 302,000 from a year earlier. Meanwhile, wage workers rose by 226,000 led by an increase of 329,000 in regular workers and 92,000 in temporary workers, although the number of daily workers shrank by 195,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
Jul
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
May
Jun
Jul
Employment growth
145
153
209
173
141
54
-146
-134
-219
4
-76
- Wage workers
236
236
312
289
208
137
73
175
79
351
226
·Regular workers
386
381
435
448
347
316
318
313
306
301
329
·Temporary workers
-93
-91
-98
-96
-83
-94
-136
-5
-89
149
92
·Daily workers
-57
-53
-25
-63
-56
-85
-108
-133
-139
-99
-195
- Non-wage workers
-92
-83
-102
-115
-66
-83
-220
-309
-298
-347
-302
·Self-employed workers
-79
-82
-79
-67
-76
-95
-197
-286
-301
-287
-229
The employment rate stood at 59.4 percent, down 0.9 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.6 percentage points yearon-year to 3.7 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier to 8.5 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008 Annual Unemployment rate (%) Employment rate (%)
22
September 2009
Jul
Q1
2009 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
May
Jun
Jul
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.7
59.5
60.3
58.5
60.3
59.9
59.4
57.4
59.3
59.3
59.8
59.4
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Korea National Statistical Office (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in August reached the highest point this year as expectations over an economic recovery were higher amid buoyant global stock markets and healthier domestic economic indicators. The KOSPI exceeded 1,600 points during the month as investor sentiment was boosted by upgraded outlook for the Korean stock market by major investment banks and a robust current account surplus recorded in July. Foreign investors continued their massive net-buying of Korean shares with the amount posting 3.1 trillion won in July. Net buying of Korean shares by foreign investors in the KOSPI market (trillion won) 3.0 (May 2009)
1.6 (Jun)
5.6 (Jul)
3.1 (Aug) (End-period, point, trillion won)
KOSPI
Stock price index
KOSDAQ
2008
Aug 2009
Change
1,124.4
1,591.8
576.9
829.2
5.1
6.7
Market capitalization Average daily trade value
2008
Aug 2009
Change1
467.4 (+41.6%)
332.0
514.7
182.7 (+55.0%)
252.3 (+43.7%)
46.1
79.6
33.5 (+72.7%)
1.6 (+31.4%)
1.2
2.5
1.3 (+108.3%)
1
1. Change from the end of the previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in August fluctuated within a band of the 1,210 to 1,250 won range. The exchange rate dropped to 1,218 won on August 4, a record low of this year, before stabilizing in the mid 1,200 won range as factors pushing up the exchange rate including a drop of around 23 percent in the Shanghai composite index were balanced with pulling factors such as surpluses of current and trade accounts and sustained net buying of Korean shares by foreign investors. The won’s value against 100 yen rose to the 1,300 won range amid the yen’s appreciation. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
2009 Jul
Aug
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,228.5
1,248.9
0.8
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,288.8
1,345.8
3.8
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
September 2009
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Bond yields soared in August as expectations over an economic recovery mounted amid stock market rallies at home and abroad and an improvement in major economic indicators. Although the Bank of Korea decided to hold its key interest rate steady at 2.0 percent and maintain its expansionary monetary policy, the yields surged amid cautions against a growing discussion on an exit strategy. (End-period)
Call rate (1 day)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jun
Jul
Aug
Change1
3.76
4.60
5.02
3.02
1.96
1.95
1.99
-103
CD (91 days)
4.09
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.41
2.41
2.57
-136
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
5.08
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.16
4.26
4.38
97
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.52
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.39
5.68
5.61
-211
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.36
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.64
4.76
4.91
114
1. Basis point changes in August 2009 from end December 2008
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in June expanded 9.6 percent from a year earlier. The pace of increase, however, slightly decelerated from 9.9 percent in the previous month, mainly as businesses reduced loans in won by 0.7 trillion won after increasing 1.7 trillion won a month earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2007
2008
Annual 8.1
Annual
M2
11.2
Lf3
10.2
11.9
M1
2
2009 Jun1
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
4.1
9.0
11.1
15.2
17.4
16.9
18.3
402.8
14.3
12.0
11.4
11.1
10.6
9.9
9.6
1,501.9
9.2
8.8
8.4
7.7
7.3
Around 7
1,913.14
1. Balance at end June 2009, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Balnace at end May 2009, trillion won
In July, bank deposits turned to a slight decline as instant access accounts plunged mainly due to VAT payments. Asset management companies (AMC) deposits continued to decrease as money inflow into money market funds (MMFs) fell by 2.5 trillion won amid falling yields. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Jul
Annual
Ju1
May
Jun
Jul
Jul1
Bank deposits
59.6
-7.2
104.3
0.3
10.4
7.7
-0.6
991.1
AMC deposits
61.8
3.9
63.0
-0.3
-2.2
-11.5
-2.2
371.9
1. Balance at end July 2009, trillion won
26
September 2009
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account recorded a US$4.40 surplus in July. The goods account surplus shrank to US$6.17 billion from US$6.61 billion a month earlier. The service account deficit expanded to US$1.89 billion from the previous month’s US$1.45 billion, as the travel account deficit swelled during the summer vacations. The income account surplus contracted to US$480 million after posting US$680 million in the previous month, due to a decrease in interest and dividend income. The current transfer account posted a deficit of US$360 million, a similar level to the previous month’s US$410 million. (US$ billion) 2008
Current account - Goods balance
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Jan-Jul
-6.41
-5.21
-0.13
-8.58
7.52
8.58
13.17
5.43
4.40
26.15
5.99
-1.22
5.72
-3.48
4.97
8.35
17.63
6.61
6.17
32.14
- Service balance
-16.73
-5.07
-4.27
-5.69
-1.70
-1.88
-4.02
-1.45
-1.89
-7.80
- Income balance
5.11
1.69
-0.65
1.36
2.71
0.83
0.18
0.68
0.48
1.49
- Current transfers
-0.77
-0.61
-0.94
-0.77
1.55
1.28
-0.61
-0.41
-0.36
0.31
The capital and financial account in July turned to post a net inflow of US$2.38 billion from the previous month’s net outflow of US$290 million. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -0.55 (Q1 2009)
8.89 (Q2)
-0.29 (Jun)
2.38 (Jul)
The direct investment account shifted to a net outflow of US$1.14 billion from the previous month’s net inflow of US$220 million due to foreigners’ net retrieval of direct investment in the Korean market as well as more overseas investment by locals. The portfolio investment account expanded the net inflow to record US$7.94 billion from US$5.34 billion a month earlier as foreigners’ investments in the Korean bond market increased. The financial derivatives account deficit was down from the previous month’s US$1.28 billion to post US$270 million, as payments related to overseas financial derivative transactions decreased considerably. The other investment account registered a net outflow of US$4.38 billion, standing at the similar level to the previous month. The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$1.5 billion in August as the trade balance posted a surplus of US$1.7 billion.
28
September 2009
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in August rebounded for the first time in six months, rising by 2.2 percent year-on-year helped by a base effect. The overall price index was up 0.4 percent month-on-month as the price for agricultural, livestock and fishery products as well as oil products showed strength and increased public utility charges were reflected. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 1.5 percent from the previous month due to intense rainfalls during the rainy season and expanded demand for livestock products during the summer holidays. Prices of oil products increased 2.3 percent from a month earlier as prospects for economic recovery pushed up international oil prices and effects of the LPG price hike in August were reflected. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in August 2009 (m-o-m, %) Spinach (37.3), Chinese cabbage (36.6), tomato (20.1), radish (9.9), pork (3.5), Korean beef (3.1), mackerel (-2.1), peach (-20.1), grape (-33.8)
Prices of oil products in August 2009 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (2.1), diesel (1.4), kerosene (1.0), LPG for automobiles (6.9), LPG for kitchen use (5.7)
Public utility charges advanced mere 0.2 percent compared to the previous month as overall public utility charges stabilized except for taxi fares of Gyeonggi province and local heating charges. Personal service charges were up 0.2 percent month-on-month fueled by price increases in some services due to higher seasonal demand during the summer.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p) Year-on-Year (%) Contribution (%p)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.4
1.5
0.3
2.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.35
0.13
0.08
0.13
0.02
0.03
0.06
2.2
4.9
1.4
-13.9
1.3
2.4
2.2
2.16
0.41
0.44
-0.95
0.12
0.38
0.77
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 3.1 percent year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 1.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2008
2009
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Month-on-Month (%)
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.4
Year-on-Year (%)
5.6
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.2
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
4.7
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.6
5.2
5.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
(m-o-m)
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
6.6
5.5
4.8
4.0
3.0
2.8
3.3
3.1
3.0
1.8
0.5
0.4
1.3
30
September 2009
11-1 Prices Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Korea National Statistical Office (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil prices in August increased with prospects for economic recovery followed by improved economic data in the eurozone. After mid August, however, international oil prices fell hit by increased profit taking and expanded oil reserve. (US$/barrel, period average) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Dubai crude
61.6
68.4
94.3
40.5
45.6
50.0
57.9
69.4
65.0
71.4
Brent crude
65.1
72.8
97.5
40.4
46.5
50.4
57.5
68.6
64.6
72.9
WTI crude
66.0
72.3
99.9
41.6
48.0
49.8
59.1
69.7
64.2
71.1
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)
Despite the won’s appreciation, domestic prices of oil products rose in line with increased international oil prices. (Won/liter, period average) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Gasoline prices
1,492
1,526
1,692
1,329
1,530
1,551
1,543
1,607
1,639
1,670
Diesel prices
1,228
1,273
1,614
1,303
1,304
1,330
1,320
1,389
1,428
1,447
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of overall non-ferrous metals went up month-on-month due to the optimism on economic recovery albeit undergoing temporary adjustments amid a plunge of the Chinese stock market. Grain prices were affected by both pushing and pulling factors. For instance, prices of corn and wheat moved downward with favorable weather conditions and a good harvest while soybean prices were up due to increased demand. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in August 2009 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-0.8), wheat (-4.6), soybean (6.7), bronze (18.2), aluminum (16.0), nickel (22.5), zinc (15.5), lead (12.8), tin (4.5)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2,019
2,400
2,536
1,767
1,870
1,942
2,099
2,117
2,080
2,158
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
September 2009
2009
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Affected by expectations over improvement in the real estate market, nationwide apartment sales prices in August continued to rise at the same pace as the previous month despite the typically weak demand during the summer. Seoul, however, slightly decelerated the upward trend since it was under pressure against a short-term surge and the Gangnam area slowed its price increases amid concerns over a further tightening in mortgage-lending regulations.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Aug31 Aug101 Aug171 Aug241
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
Seoul
24.1
Gangnam2
27.6
Gangbuk
2.3
-0.7
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.06
0.12
0.13
0.16
3.6
3.2
-0.9
-0.2
-0.3
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.08
0.21
0.18
0.26
0.5
-1.9
-1.1
0.2
-0.1
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.09
0.26
0.21
0.32
19.0
8.3
9.4
-0.7
-0.6
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.7
0.4
0.07
0.15
0.14
0.19
24.6
4.0
2.9
-1.0
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.06
0.15
0.15
0.20
5 metropolitan cities
2.1 -0.6
1.0
-0.4
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.07
0.11
0.14
0.16
Other cities
3.0
2.3
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.07
0.06
0.08
3
Seoul metropolitan area
1. Weekly trends
0.3
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment rental prices were up at a faster pace as the imbalance between supply and demand further deepened due to the short supply and increased demand ahead of autumn led by newlyweds. With the Seoul metropolitan area extending the upward trend, other cities and provinces also accelerated price increases from the previous month.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug Aug31 Aug101 Aug171 Aug241
Nationwide
7.6
1.9
0.8
-1.2
-0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.11
0.22
0.28
0.35
Seoul
11.5
2.2
-1.8
-1.7
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.9
1.0
0.21
0.37
0.33
0.65
Gangnam
11.3
0.5
-3.6
-1.8
0.7
1.0
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.27
0.40
0.31
0.69
Gangbuk3
11.8
4.6
0.5
-1.5
-0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.14
0.34
0.34
0.59
Seoul metropolitan area
2
11.7
2.1
-0.4
-1.9
-0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.13
0.34
0.41
0.50
5 metropolitan cities
3.0
1.1
1.6
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.09
0.10
0.18
0.26
Other cities
4.1
2.2
2.6
-0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.07
0.08
0.07
0.07
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in July continued the upward trend for two consecutive months to post 90,643, much higher than the average level of 73,467 recorded in the same month of 2006 through 2008.
Apartment sales transactions 2006
(Monthly average, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Jul Annual Jul Annual Jul
2009
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Nationwide
94
69
84
68
74
84
61
68
54
57
49
60
79
76
72
81
91
Seoul
16
9
8
8
8
10
5
5
3
5
4
6
8
9
10
11
12
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
September 2009
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in July rose 0.21 percent, extending the upward trend for four consecutive months, albeit below the peak of October 2008 by 4.7 percent. Nationwide land prices (m-o-m, %) 0.06 (Apr 2009)
0.11 (May)
0.16 (Jun)
0.21 (Jul)
Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area showed a higher price increase than the national average of 0.21 percent as Seoul, Gyeonggi province and Incheon saw prices rising by 0.28 percent, 0.30 percent and 0.31 percent, respectively.
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul
Nationwide
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
-0.31
1.23
1.46
1.18
-4.08
-1.20
0.34
0.21
Seoul
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
-1.00
1.83
2.17
1.59
-6.34
-1.38
0.67
0.28
Gyeonggi
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
-0.26
1.28
1.57
1.28
-4.28
-1.62
0.36
0.30
Incheon
4.86
1.24
1.28
1.12
1.13
1.37
1.36
1.67
2.01
-3.57
-1.39
0.52
0.31
Source: Korea Land Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in July contracted 9.4 percent or 23,000 land lots from a month earlier to 222,000 land lots. In terms of gross area, land transactions were down 8.4 percent. While the Seoul metropolitan area witnessed the decrease in land transactions year-on-year, land transactions in green belt sites increased with expectations that the government would designate those areas as sites to build Bogeumjari Houses, affordable public apartments for low-income households.
Land sales transactions
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Jan
2009
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
208
208
216
237
248
245
173
149
162
134
164
207
207
192
215
222
Seoul
33
26
24
32
36
34
20
14
13
13
15
20
24
22
27
26
Gyeonggi
49
45
44
50
58
57
37
28
31
26
34
41
48
45
49
50
Incheon
13
13
11
16
16
18
11
8
8
7
7
9
10
9
10
11
Nationwide
Source: Korea Land Corporation
36
September 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Korea National Statistical Office (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of the current economic conditions, rose 0.9 points in July from the previous month, staying on an upward track since March. Four out of all components of the index, i.e., the manufacturing operation ratio index, the mining & manufacturing production index, the domestic shipment index, and the volume of imports were up. Components of the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index in July 2009 (m-o-m) Mining & manufacturing production index (3.0%), manufacturing operation ratio index (3.2%), value of construction completed (-0.2%), service activity index (-0.3%), wholesale & retail sales index (2.4%), domestic shipment index (2.9%), volume of imports (2.8%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.2%)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, rose 2.1 percentage points month-on-month in July, running on an upward track since January. All components of the index including the value of machinery orders received, the consumer expectations index, the indicator of inventory cycle, the value of received construction orders, and the volume of capital goods imports were up. Components of the leading composite index in July 2009 (m-o-m) Value of machinery orders received (23.5%), indicator of inventory cycle (4.8%p), consumer expectations index (5.2p), volume of capital goods imports (3.9%), composite stock price index (3.0%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (2.4%p), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.7%), spreads between long & short term interest rate (0.1%p), net terms of trade index (-0.8%), value of received construction orders (-6.6%)
2009 Jan
Feb
Apr
May1
Jun1
Jul1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
-1.9
0.0
1.5
0.8
2.0
1.4
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
92.4
92.0
93.5
93.8
95.4
96.3
(m-o-m, p)
-2.2
-0.4
1.0
0.3
1.6
0.9
0.2
1.1
1.8
2.1
2.6
1.5
-4.1
-3.0
0.1
2.6
5.8
7.9
0.1
1.1
2.0
2.5
3.2
2.1
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%) (m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
38
September 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Korea National Statistical Office
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues 2009 Tax Revision
The 2009 tax revision is aimed at stabilizing public livelihood, and yet at the same time preparing for the future take-off of the Korean economy
Background The Korean economy has shown signs of economic recovery, which is evident in the betterthan-expected GDP growth in the first and second quarters. However, internal and external uncertainties still exist, and low income classes are likely to suffer from an income decrease and deteriorating job markets. On top of that, Korea’s fiscal balance has been worsening affected by the expansionary fiscal policies against the global economic downturn, which caused a fall in tax revenue and a surge in budget spending. Against this backdrop, the government introduced the 2009 tax revision to create more business-friendly environment, support low & middle income brackets, in particular self-employed small business owners and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and prepare for the ageing society by increasing fiscal capacity.
Key directions of the revision - Tax cuts will be implemented as planned to create more jobs and enhance growth potential. - Tax incentives for low & middle income brackets will continue until clear signs of economic recovery are detected. - R&D support will be expanded to the world-class level. - Pursuit of healthy fiscal balance and policies of stimulating economic recovery will go together by broadening the tax base and lowering tax rates.
40
September 2009
Details of the revision Tax incentives for self-employed small business owners - Small business owners who closed their businesses will be exempted from paying delinquent taxes of up to 5 million won until the end of 2010. The tax exemption will be applied when the small business owners have no assets at business close-down, and still be effective when they start new businesses or get jobs. The tax incentive is eligible for small businesses which earned a three year average of less than 200 million won a year before close-down. - The amount of tax delinquency subject to being notified to credit bureaus will be raised temporarily for two years from 5 million won to 10 million won, which will allow 380,000 tax defaulters to use financial institutes for funding. - Grace period for tax payment will be extended from up to nine months to 18 months for businesses with no delinquency records. The period will be applied in case of bankruptcy, natural disasters and diseases. - Late installments of tax will first pay taxes and then penalties, a shift from penalties first and then taxes, resulting in more effectively reducing the amount of unpaid taxes. - Medical and education fees will be tax-deductible for three more years until the end of 2012. - Reduced rates of value added tax (VAT) applied to small restaurants, accommodations, and retailers will be extended two years until 2011: From 2.0 percent to 1.5 percent for small retailers, and 4.0 percent to 3.0 percent for restaurants and accommodations. - Higher simplified expense rate will be applied in the case of tax return based on the estimation of income tax, which will be offered to small business owners suffering from the economic downturn. A total of 240 businesses, particularly cargo trucks, cargo handling and furniture retailers, will be benefited from the revision. - Rewards given to those paying taxes in time, now available for 50 percent of collateral when applying for a tax installment plan or grace period, will be used for 100 percent of collateral. Tax incentives for SMEs - Less tight regulations will be applied when family businesses are succeeded: Business predecessors will need to work as a representative director for at least 60 percent of a total time of business operation, or more than eight years of the 10 years of business operation just before the succession takes place, a relaxed requirement from at least 80 percent of a total time of business operation. - The temporary lift of asset assessment for death tax with management premiums of 10 to 15 percent of the stock price, scheduled to be sunset at the end of 2009, will be extended until 2010 to help succeed businesses.
Economic Bulletin
41
- The amount of tax payment with credit cards will be increased from up to two million won of several taxes to up to 5 million won of all taxes. - The major support measures for SMEs scheduled to be withdrawn at the end of 2009 will be extended three more years until the end of 2012. - Tax deduction of 3 million won a year given to the “SME Insurance Payment” will continue. - Relaxed regulations will be applied to manufacturing Korean traditional liquor to help produce a more variety of Korean liquor by small manufacturers. - Extension of tax payment due or payment suspension will be offered to SMEs suffering temporary hardships such as natural disasters or credit crunch. Tax incentives for the working poor - Tax deduction on monthly rent will be introduced for those earning less than 30 million a year, having dependants and living in houses smaller than 85m2 in size. - Transfer tax will be exempted on in-kind investment in the fishing industry. - Deposit products for farmers and fishermen, which are exempted from interest tax, will be sold for two more years until 2011. - VAT exemption for school or factory cafeterias will be extended three more years, along with expanded VAT exemption on medicines including those for rare illnesses. - Transfer tax incentives will be given when owners of two houses sell one of their houses, under the condition that one of the them is inherited. - No comprehensive real estate tax will be imposed on senior housing. - The food “traceability system” will be applied with expansion from imported beef (January 2009) to salt, soybean oil and others (August 2009), and to live eels, ginseng and ingredients for Korean medicine (December 2012). - Imports of fake clothing and foot wares will be donated to the poor, if trade mark rights holders agree, and deserted agricultural products will be made compost and provided to farmers. - To promote donation, money donated to finance microcredit loans will be given an increased tax deduction on expenditure for 50 percent of return on both corporate and private donations, significantly up from 5.0 percent and 20 percent of return, respectively. - Tax deduction on donated money which supports social welfare, scholarship, academic activities, and art will be transferable for five years.
42
September 2009
Tax revisions to create more business-friendly environment - Tax deduction on R&D investment will be increased to 20 to 25 percent for large enterprises, and 30 to 35 percent for SMEs. - Green industry-related financial products will be tax-exempt or tax-deductible. - Islamic bonds (Sukuk) will be exempted from tax: Unlike other bonds issued in foreign currencies which yield interest, therefore no tax on it, Islamic bonds have been issued in a different way, which regards the bond interest as profit, making it difficult whether to apply no tax or not. However, the revision will offer tax exemption on Islamic bonds. - To help operate Korean branches of foreign financial institutions, tax deductions on foreign borrowings by the branches will be given on the basis either of the foreign exchange rate as of the fiscal year-end, or daily exchange rates, which will depend on the branches’ choice, but the choice is obliged to last for five years. - Relaxed regulations will be applied when parent companies receive indirect tax credits for dividend from subsidiaries: Parent companies with more than 10 percent shares of overseas subsidiaries are eligible for the tax credit, a revision from more than 20 percent of shares. - To facilitate overseas investment, a relaxed requirement to be exempted from the tax heaven rules will be applied to foreign holding companies: Foreign subsidiaries whose shares of more than 40 percent are held by foreign holding companies will be entitled to the exemption, a 10 percent decrease from 50 percent. Tax revisions to enhance fiscal health - Income tax deduction for those who earn more than 80 million won a year will be reduced, along with the abolition of tax credit granted when property transfer is reported in advance. - The revisions related to capital gain taxes are i) revival of withholding taxation on bond yield collected by financial institutions, ii) termination of income tax exemption on overseas fund products, iii) ending of no taxation on stock transactions by public offering funds and pension funds, and iv) less financial products eligible for tax exemption or reduction on interest yielded. - To broaden the VAT taxation base, veterinarian treatment and aesthetic plastic surgeries will be subject to VAT. - To improve fiscal balance, the revision will strengthen the taxation system for high-income earners and professionals, and impose more severe punishment on frequent and highprofile tax evaders as well as tax officials and tax agents who help evade tax duties. - To promote international cooperation in tackling tax evasion, taxation information exchanged internationally will include that of Korean residents and domestic corporations as well as non Korean residents and foreign corporations.
Economic Bulletin
43
Expected effects The revision is expected to bring a net revenue increase of 10.5 trillion won, as the abolition of tax exemptions and reductions offset tax incentives.
Expected tax revenue increase by the year
(trillion won) 2010
2011
2012
Total
Income tax
1.3
0.9
0.3
2.5
Corporate tax
5.2
1.1
0.1
6.4
VAT
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
Securities transaction tax
0.3
-
-
0.3
Others
0.8
0.1
-
0.9
Total
7.7
2.3
0.5
10.5
Tax payment by high income brackets and large corporations will contribute to 80 to 90 percent of the 10.5 trillion revenue increase. On the other hand, a total of 3.6 trillion won will be used to support low & middle income brackets and SMEs through tax incentives: Programs to financially support small business owners and extension of incentives scheduled to be ended at the end of 2009. Given that most incentives are extended rather than newly introduced, a decrease in tax revenue is estimated to be about 200 billion won.
44
September 2009
Economic News Briefing GDP growth in Q2 revised up to 2.6% (Preliminary) Korea’s real GDP grew 2.6 percent in the second quarter from the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted), revised up from an advance estimate of 2.3 percent, adding to hopes that the recovery in Asia’s fourth-largest economy is sustainable. The revised figure shows the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2003 when GDP also grew 2.6 percent quarteron-quarter. From a year earlier, the economy shrank a revised 2.2 percent in the April-June period, after contracting 4.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
20081
20091
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
GDP
1.5 (4.5)2
1.5 (5.3)
1.3 (4.9)
1.3 (5.7)
1.1 (5.5)
0.4 (4.3)
0.2 (3.1)
-5.1 (-3.4)
0.1 (-4.2)
2.6 (-2.2)
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
-0.2
3.0
0.8
-2.9
5.8
0.8
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-1.7 (-1.2)
2.0
2.7
2.5
2.4
1.2
1.7
0.1
-11.9
-3.4
8.9 (-7.3)
Manufacturing Construction
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
1.3
-1.4
-2.2
1.1
-4.2
5.9
-0.2 (2.2)
Services3
2.0
1.2
1.1
1.2
0.8
0.1
0.5
-1.4
0.3
1.1 (0.4)
Private consumption
1.7
1.5
0.9
0.4
1.1
-0.2
0.0
-4.6
0.4
3.6 (-0.8)
Facility investment
6.0
1.2
-3.0
3.8
-0.4
0.4
0.2
-14.2
-11.2
10.1 (-15.9)
-0.1
-2.2
-0.4
2.9
-2.5
-0.3
0.1
-3.0
5.2
1.7 (3.7)
5.4
2.6
1.5
7.1
-0.7
2.5
-0.9
-12.6
-3.4
14.7 (-4.2)
3.8
5.0
0.3
5.9
0.1
3.0
1.2
-15.7
-6.2
7.4 (-14.3)
1.8
0.8
0.3
1.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
-4.3
0.7
3.4 (-0.1)
Construction investment Goods exports4 Goods imports4 Domestic demand
5
*At 2005 chained prices, seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms. 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis 5. Excluding inventory Economic Bulletin
45
On the expenditure side, the manufacturing output expanded a revised 8.9 percent from the previous quarter compared with an initial estimate of 8.2 percent, while the service output increased 1.1 percent, slightly up from an earlier figure of 1.0 percent. Meanwhile, facility and construction investments rose 10.1 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, up from advance estimates of 8.4 percent and 0.4 percent.
Korea’s sovereign rating outlook upgraded to “Stable” On September 2, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Korea’s sovereign credit ratings at “A+”, warranting an outlook revision from “Negative” to “Stable”. Fitch lowered the outlook to negative in November 2008 on concerns that Korea may experience widening current account deficits and its financial system would face increased uncertainty due to the global financial crisis. In its report, the rating agency attributed the upgrade to the government’s efforts to overcome the economic crisis and to the improvement in its macroeconomic data and foreign currency liquidity. The revised rating outlook is expected to affect credit ratings or rating outlooks of domestic financial institutions, bringing more favorable foreign borrowing conditions to them and improving foreign investor sentiment, which will positively influence the country’s financial markets.
Korea joins ranks of top 10 exporters Korea ranked tenth in the share of world export markets during the January-April period this year, up two notches from the previous year’s twelfth, as Korea’s exports remained relatively healthy with a 23.6 percent decrease despite a downturn in major export markets. For the year 2009, Korea is supposed to join the world’s top 10 exporting countries for the first time in history. Thomson Reuters Datastream, the world’s largest financial statistical database issues monthly rankings for 70 countries based on the value of their exports; below are average figures of top 15 exporters for the first four months of 2009. Korea ranked twelfth last year and moved up to eleventh in the first quarter of this year. By the third quarter, some analysts believe that Korea will reach ninth place; however, variables such as the stronger won and a recent increase in oil prices make any predictions uncertain.
46
September 2009
The top eight countries remain unchanged from 2008, with Germany retaining the number one spot. However, Russia and Canada have dropped out of the top 10: Russia fell to thirteenth in the ranking from ninth and Canada ceded the number ten spot to Korea. Meanwhile, the UK advanced two steps to ninth place, while Hong Kong moved up from thirteenth place to twelfth.
Rank
Country
Exports (US$ billion)
Growth Rate (%)
1
Germany
342.0
-33.3
2
China
337.4
-20.5
3
US
329.4
-22.4
4
Japan
161.8
-39.6
5
France
145.0
-33.2
6
Netherlands
129.1
-32.1
7
Italy
121.4
-35.1
8
Belgium
112.0
-33.5
9
UK
107.8
-33.5
10
Korea
104.9
-23.6
11
Canada
101.5
-36.1
12
Hong Kong
90.8
-20.5
13
Russia
78.7
-47.7
14
Singapore
77.6
-32.2
15
Mexico
71.7
-29.0
*Figures represent averages for January to April 2009 Source: Datastream
Korea receives more foreign direct investment Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Korea in the first seven months of 2009 amounted to US$6.79 billion, up 32.4 percent from US$5.13 billion in the same period of the previous year, hitting the highest level since 2000. After a steep drop in the first quarter, FDI rebounded in May and the upward trend remains steady since then. Enhanced price competitiveness and signs of a rapid economic recovery are the biggest contributing factors behind the increase. Foreign investors are also expressing greater confidence in Korea’s economic growth potential. The surge in FDI is especially noteworthy since the global economic recession has depressed FDI in most advanced countries and emerging markets. In an effort to maintain a steady inflow of FDI, the government will work consistently to provide a better investment environment.
Economic Bulletin
47
Domestic Banks’ BIS capital ratio rises to highest level Korean banks have posted an all-time high Bank for International Settlements (BIS) capital ratio under Basel Ⅱ. Domestic banks’ BIS capital ratio stood at 13.74 percent as of end-June, up 0.80 percentage points from 12.94 percent at the end of the previous quarter. Banks’ Tier-1 capital ratio also climbed 0.79 percentage points from 9.51 percent to 10.30 percent over the same period. The rise was attributed to the banks’ capital expansion and decreased risk-weighted assets. At the highest level on record, the current end-June BIS ratio of 13.74 percent has domestic banks on solid footing, especially in terms of their ability to absorb possible losses. The highest BIS ratio to date was 13.18 percent at end-March 2006. (End-period, %) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Mar (A)
Jun (B)
B-A
BIS capital ratio
12.31
12.31
12.94
13.74
0.80
Tier-1 capital ratio
8.97
8.84
9.51
10.30
0.79
2 trillion won to be injected to boost facility investment Two Korean state-run lenders will provide a combined 2 trillion won (US$1.61 billion) into establishing Facility Investment Fund aimed at promoting private companies’ facility investment. It is a follow up measure to the July 2 announcement on “Plan to Promote Corporate Investment” released by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance. In accordance with the original plan to inject 5 trillion won into the fund through state-owned Korea Development Bank (KDB) and Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK), an initial investment of 2 trillion won will be made. KDB will contribute 0.6 trillion won in addition to 0.8 trillion won through the Korea Policy Banking Corporation (KPBC) once it is established in October, while the remaining 0.6 trillion won investment will come from IBK. The method of investment will be either direct investment through various channels including issuance of preferred shares or indirect investment through private funds and private equity funds (PEF). The funds will be available in multiple currencies (won, dollar, yen, euro, etc.) as required by specific projects. The funds from KDB will mainly support facility investment made to new growth enginerelated industries, infrastructure projects, long-term investments with higher than normal risks, and other large-scale investments unable to be funded by the private sector alone. On
48
September 2009
the other hand, funds from IBK will lean towards investing into technologically advanced but liquidity strapped small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with high growth potentials.
UNEP praises Korea’s green growth policies On August 20, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) praised Korea’s green growth efforts in a report titled “Overview of the Republic of Korea’s Green Growth National Vision.” UNEP assessed that Korea is one of the countries that proactively join global green efforts and the first country to adopt a green growth vision as its key development paradigm. In particular, the Four Major River Restoration Project, which is one of the key components of the Five-year Green Growth Plan with a total budget of US$13 billion, is expected to contribute to securing water resources, improving water quality, preventing floods, and enhancing regional development. The restoration project will also help the county adapt to climate change, noted the report. UNEP also praised the Korean government’s dedication of US$83.6 billion, or 2 percent of its GDP, to green growth projects and its voluntary plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by pointing out that Korea is not a member of the countries currently tasked with cutting greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.
Economic Bulletin
49
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
7.2 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2
-2.2 -5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.5
8.7 5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 3.1
8.1 0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 1.6
Construction
Facilities
7.1 4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.7
6.2 8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.1
7.3 -1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -2.0
2002
I II III IV
6.6 7.0 6.8 8.1
2.3 -2.4 -1.1 -5.5
5.1 7.2 9.3 13.1
10.3 9.1 7.7 5.7
7.5 7.9 3.2 9.6
11.4 7.2 -1.5 9.4
2.6 7.7 9.8 9.1
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008P
I II III IV
5.5 4.3 3.1 -3.4
7.4 4.4 4.2 6.4
9.1 8.4 5.6 -9.1
3.9 2.6 2.0 -1.9
-0.5 0.6 1.8 -7.3
-1.9 -0.3 0.2 -5.6
1.5 1.1 4.3 -14.0
2009P
I II
-4.2 -2.2
1.5 -1.2
-13.6 -7.3
-2.0 0.9
-8.1 -2.7
1.6 3.7
-23.5 -15.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
September 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2007 2008
Production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
115.9 119.4
6.9 3.0
115.3 118.1
7.2 2.4
117.2 125.7
5.6 7.3
112.2 116.0
6.8 3.4
2007
I II III IV
109.6 114.9 112.9 126.2
4.1 6.3 6.1 10.9
109.6 115.2 111.9 124.7
5.2 7.1 5.6 10.5
114.0 114.5 112.7 117.2
5.0 4.1 2.9 5.6
106.7 111.2 112.6 118.1
5.5 6.5 7.4 7.4
2008
I II III IV
121.6 125.1 119.2 111.9
10.9 8.9 5.6 -11.3
119.6 122.8 117.8 112.1
9.1 6.6 5.3 -10.1
123.7 133.1 132.2 125.7
8.5 16.2 17.3 7.3
113.8 116.5 116.2 117.6
6.7 4.8 3.2 -0.4
2009
I IIP
102.7 117.4
-15.5 -6.2
102.0 115.6
-14.7 -5.9
116.5 111.0
-5.8 -16.6
113.3 118.4
-0.4 1.6
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.8 100.2 115.7 113.8 115.8 115.1 113.4 113.7 111.6 128.6 127.6 122.5
8.7 -0.2 3.5 6.4 5.8 6.7 13.6 9.0 -3.0 16.1 7.7 9.4
110.3 101.7 116.8 114.6 116.0 114.9 112.6 112.5 110.6 126.3 126.1 121.6
8.3 2.0 5.1 7.5 6.6 6.9 14.3 7.3 -3.5 15.6 7.8 8.6
118.6 115.6 114.0 111.8 114.2 114.5 115.6 115.6 112.7 115.0 114.9 117.2
10.8 8.4 5.0 4.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 5.5 2.9 4.9 4.3 5.6
105.9 102.8 111.4 109.4 112.1 112.1 112.1 112.9 112.8 115.3 115.6 123.4
4.3 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.2 8.1 10.0 7.9 4.5 9.3 6.7 6.2
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.0 110.9 127.8 126.1 126.1 123.1 123.1 115.8 118.6 126.2 110.0 99.6
11.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 8.9 7.0 8.6 1.8 6.3 -1.9 -13.8 -18.7
121.7 109.7 127.3 124.5 123.5 120.3 121.5 114.5 117.3 124.0 109.5 102.8
10.3 7.9 9.0 8.6 6.5 4.7 7.9 1.8 6.1 -1.8 -13.2 -15.5
123.9 124.4 123.7 124.8 128.9 133.1 132.4 132.3 132.2 135.1 133.4 125.7
4.5 7.6 8.5 11.6 12.9 16.2 14.5 14.4 17.3 17.5 16.1 7.3
114.2 109.3 118.0 116.3 117.7 115.5 116.8 115.1 116.8 116.9 113.9 121.9
7.8 6.3 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.0 4.2 1.9 3.5 1.4 -1.5 -1.2
93.9 99.8 114.4 115.7 114.8 121.6 124.0
-25.5 -10.0 -10.5 -8.2 -9.0 -1.2 5.7
93.2 99.5 113.2 114.5 112.8 119.6 119.8
-23.4 -9.3 -11.1 -8.0 -8.7 -0.6 -1.4
124.4 118.1 116.5 112.6 111.4 111.0 112.6
0.4 -5.1 -5.8 -9.8 -13.6 -16.6 -15.0
113.0 109.6 117.2 118.5 118.1 118.7 117.7
-1.1 0.3 -0.7 1.9 0.3 2.8 0.8
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
54
September 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
109.7 115.4
5.4 5.2
100.4 96.8
0.1 -3.6
80.1 77.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2007
I II III IV
107.5 108.3 110.2 112.6
4.5 4.5 6.0 6.4
97.2 102.6 96.2 105.5
-2.1 0.7 -1.7 3.4
78.9 79.9 80.1 81.3
2008
I II III IV
114.0 115.3 116.0 116.5
6.0 6.5 5.3 3.5
98.9 102.7 95.1 90.6
1.7 0.1 -1.1 -14.1
80.8 80.4 78.3 69.3
2009
I IIP
116.9 117.6
2.5 2.0
80.7 94.3
-18.4 -8.2
65.8 73.6
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.2 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.2 110.8 112.3 112.5 113.0
4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5
99.8 88.2 103.6 101.5 103.9 102.5 98.3 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.7
2.6 -7.2 -1.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 7.3 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 0.9
78.5 79.5 78.8 78.8 80.5 80.4 80.6 81.1 78.6 81.9 81.0 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 114.3 114.7 115.5 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.8
6.2 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4
102.9 89.2 104.6 104.2 103.0 100.8 99.4 91.9 94.1 103.8 89.1 78.9
3.1 1.1 1.0 2.7 -0.9 -1.7 1.1 -4.9 0.3 -5.1 -17.0 -20.9
81.3 80.2 80.9 81.0 80.0 80.2 79.2 78.4 77.3 77.3 68.4 62.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.2 117.2 118.3 118.5
2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.2 2.7
72.9 78.8 90.4 93.1 92.2 97.5 98.4
-29.2 -11.7 -13.6 -10.7 -10.5 -3.3 -1.0
61.4 66.9 69.2 71.5 72.9 76.6 78.7
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2007 2008
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
109.3 110.4
5.1 1.0
124.7 127.1
9.6 1.9
108.1 105.5
3.9 -2.4
108.5 109.3
5.2 0.7
2007
I II III IV
106.6 108.3 107.1 115.1
5.2 4.3 7.2 3.6
119.6 124.6 126.0 128.6
16.6 12.5 10.2 0.8
99.9 110.1 94.1 128.5
5.4 1.5 3.6 5.4
106.6 107.6 110.5 109.4
4.3 3.5 8.4 5.0
2008
I Il III IV
111.3 111.4 108.6 110.3
4.4 2.9 1.4 -4.2
131.0 135.5 126.0 115.9
9.5 8.7 0.0 -9.9
103.7 107.8 94.7 115.8
3.8 -2.1 0.6 -9.9
108.6 107.9 111.8 109.0
1.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4
2009
I IIP
105.9 113.2
-4.9 1.6
113.2 140.9
-13.6 4.0
102.8 108.1
-0.9 0.3
107.1 109.0
-1.4 1.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.6 110.1 106.6 111.3 107.0 105.0 103.6 112.6 113.4 113.9 118.1
0.4 10.3 5.6 3.8 5.6 3.6 9.1 5.8 6.6 6.8 3.9 0.5
118.7 111.2 128.8 120.5 126.5 126.8 130.5 127.0 120.5 124.8 129.1 131.8
22.0 11.5 16.2 13.9 14.3 9.4 20.7 11.4 -0.3 11.7 4.0 -10.3
98.0 91.5 110.2 111.5 116.2 102.5 94.4 80.0 107.8 123.9 130.0 131.7
4.6 5.7 5.8 -0.1 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.8 4.6 8.2 4.3 3.9
104.4 107.4 108.1 105.0 110.3 107.4 105.3 109.6 116.7 109.3 106.6 112.2
-4.9 16.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 1.9 8.7 5.7 10.9 4.1 5.4 5.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.2 115.1 113.0 114.8 106.3 109.3 105.9 110.5 109.5 108.6 112.8
5.2 3.5 4.5 6.0 3.1 -0.7 4.1 2.2 -1.9 -3.4 -4.7 -4.5
129.5 118.7 144.8 140.6 137.6 128.2 141.1 121.5 115.4 124.4 109.0 114.4
9.1 6.7 12.4 16.7 8.8 1.1 8.1 -4.3 -4.2 -0.3 -15.6 -13.2
104.5 97.3 109.2 109.2 112.5 101.8 98.0 87.1 99.1 112.5 121.2 113.8
6.6 6.3 -0.9 -2.1 -3.2 -0.7 3.8 8.9 -8.1 -9.2 -6.8 -13.6
108.1 107.9 109.8 108.1 111.7 103.9 105.7 111.4 118.2 105.8 107.0 114.3
3.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.3 -3.3 0.4 1.6 1.3 -3.2 0.4 1.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
108.0 100.7 109.1 108.6 116.6 114.3 111.4
-3.3 -6.1 -5.2 -3.9 1.6 7.5 1.9
102.5 114.3 122.9 123.7 142.8 156.3 141.0
-20.8 -3.7 -15.1 -12.0 3.8 21.9 -0.1
103.2 96.8 108.4 110.0 113.5 100.7 94.9
-1.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.7 0.9 -1.1 -3.2
113.6 98.8 108.8 107.0 112.5 107.5 110.7
5.1 -8.4 -0.9 -1.0 0.7 3.5 4.7
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
56
September 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2007 2008
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
113.0 114.6
6.0 1.4
124.5 126.6
12.8 1.7
108.4 109.8
3.2 1.3
-
2007
I II III IV
111.1 111.0 111.3 118.7
8.4 7.8 2.4 5.9
119.8 122.5 122.9 132.8
17.6 15.0 9.3 9.9
107.6 106.4 106.7 113.0
4.8 4.7 -0.5 4.1
-
2008
I II III IV
117.3 115.7 113.5 111.8
5.6 4.2 2.0 -5.8
132.5 136.4 123.0 114.5
10.6 11.3 0.1 -13.8
111.3 107.5 109.7 110.7
3.4 1.0 2.8 -2.0
-
2009
I IIP
105.9 113.1
-9.7 -2.2
112.8 137.7
-14.9 1.0
103.2 103.2
-7.3 -4.0
-
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.9 104.3 114.1 111.6 113.0 108.5 109.7 112.9 111.3 121.6 118.0 116.4
11.1 8.0 6.2 10.1 8.8 4.7 10.0 6.0 -7.1 11.8 3.1 2.9
118.0 113.7 127.8 119.9 125.3 122.4 124.3 125.0 119.5 136.4 131.8 130.2
21.9 14.8 16.2 19.5 18.2 8.0 23.6 13.9 -5.8 16.9 6.7 6.5
113.6 100.5 108.6 108.3 108.0 102.9 103.9 108.1 108.0 115.7 112.4 110.9
7.2 5.0 2.2 6.3 4.8 3.2 4.5 2.8 -7.6 9.6 1.4 1.3
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.2 106.4 120.3 119.8 115.8 111.6 117.6 111.3 111.5 119.5 107.0 108.8
9.0 2.0 5.4 7.3 2.5 2.9 7.2 -1.4 0.2 -1.7 -9.3 -6.5
131.5 122.4 143.5 144.0 136.9 128.2 134.2 118.8 116.0 127.8 111.0 104.6
11.4 7.7 12.3 20.1 9.3 4.7 8.0 -5.0 -2.9 -6.3 -15.8 -19.7
122.7 100.0 111.1 110.1 107.4 105.0 111.0 108.3 109.7 116.2 105.5 110.5
8.0 -0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.6 2.0 6.8 0.2 1.6 0.4 -6.1 -0.4
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
105.7 102.3 109.8 110.5 111.5 117.2P 117.7P -
-15.6 -3.9 -8.7 -7.8 -3.7 5.0P 0.1P -
99.0 115.2 124.3 119.0 138.6 155.6P 143.0P -
-24.7 -5.9 -13.4 -17.4 1.2 21.4P 6.6P -
108.4 97.2 104.0 107.1 100.6 101.9P 107.6P -
-11.7 -2.8 -6.4 -2.7 -6.3 -3.0P -3.1P -
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007 2008
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
27,279 23,798
2,199 2,309
25,080 21,488
15,635 12,809
118.1 113.0
114.5 114.5
Manufacturing
2008
I ll III IV
7,863 6,088 5,474 4,372
371 535 354 1,049
7,492 5,552 5,121 3,324
4,936 3,140 2,947 1,786
112.8 121.2 113.7 104.3
111.7 120.6 113.9 111.9
2009
I llP
5,205 5,207
931 701
4,274 4,527
2,083 2,330
92.8 104.9
98.1 111.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,110 2,339 2,414 2,043 1,863 2,182 2,372 1,688 1,414 1,711 1,259 1,402
148 68 155 95 89 352 179 87 88 399 207 444
3,661 2,271 2,259 1,947 1,775 1,830 2,193 1,602 1,326 1,312 1,053 959
2,032 1,571 1,332 1,137 913 1,090 1,239 965 743 754 555 478
107.8 104.2 126.4 122.6 122.5 118.4 118.9 113.3 108.9 105.8 103.6 103.5
106.3 102.9 125.9 119.6 122.1 120.0 119.6 108.3 113.8 112.5 108.2 115.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
1,636 1,727 1,842 1,534 1,466 2,228 2,544
232 519 181 93 98 510 1,074
741 562 780 690 700 940 795
84.7 92.4 101.3 99.4 102.7 112.6 97.3
84.3 97.5 112.5 109.5 102.9 121.1 106.6
2007 2008
20.6 -12.8
-11.4 5.0
24.5 -14.3
29.9 -18.1
8.2 -4.3
3.3 0.0
1,404 1,209 1,661 1,441 1,368 1,718 1,470 Y-o-Y change (%)
2008
I ll III IV
22.7 -0.5 -15.2 -47.3
9.7 84.7 -26.9 -3.5
23.5 -4.7 -14.3 -53.9
44.6 -7.4 -23.7 -64.0
-3.8 -2.7 3.0 -13.4
1.3 0.6 6.5 -7.4
2009
I llP
-33.8 -14.1
150.5 30.9
-42.9 -18.5
-57.8 -25.8
-17.7 -13.7
-12.2 -7.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
51.2 2.6 16.7 5.0 -6.4 0.0 17.0 -9.0 -45.0 -46.4 -52.6 -42.8
67.3 -54.7 55.3 3.2 -2.4 229.6 5.3 -32.2 -52.8 349.0 -5 -43.2
50.5 6.6 14.7 5.1 -6.6 -11.8 18.1 -7.3 -44.4 -57.7 -56.8 -42.7
78.7 26 29.5 5.9 -13.6 -13.7 12.0 -1.4 -58.2 -67.5 -66.9 -50.8
-2.2 -8.0 -1.5 -4.2 -1.1 -2.7 7.0 -0.9 2.9 -6.2 -14.9 -18.4
1.8 0.2 1.6 4.4 -0.8 -1.7 7.1 2.6 10.0 -1.0 -10.1 -10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
-47.4 -26.2 -23.7 -24.9 -21.3 2.1 7.3
56.4 660.1 16.7 -2.9 10.5 45.1 498.8
-52.6 -46.8 -26.5 26 22.9 -6.2 -32.9
-63.6 -64.2 -41.4 -39.3 -23.4 -13.8 -35.9
-21.4 -11.3 -19.9 -18.9 -16.2 -4.9 -18.2
-20.7 -5.2 -10.6 -8.4 -15.7 0.9 -10.9
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
58
September 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
2007 2008
Type of order
Type of order
Private
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
Private
25,098 26,728
54,559 55,509
112,502 102,321
28,695 31,320
77,554 65,294
Value of construction completed (total)
Public
82,939 86,806
2008
I ll III IV
18,283 22,158 22,317 24,047
5,279 6,568 6,503 8,383
12,142 14,367 14,712 14,288
21,048 25,995 17,061 38,217
7,398 6,056 4,691 13,175
13,077 19,171 10,795 22,252
2009
I llP
19,115 23,716
6,562 8,678
11,536 13,623
17,567 25,485
9,024 17,350
8,055 7,201
6,074 5,473 6,736 7,026 7,321 7,811 7,168 7,312 7,837 7,741 7,779 8,528
1,716 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,376 2,025 2,139 2,339 2,498 2,572 3,312
4,072 3,698 4,372 4,636 4,731 5,001 4,789 4,822 5,101 4,819 4,743 4,726
6,275 6,152 8,621 7,880 8,578 9,537 5,372 6,169 5,519 8,187 8,151 21,879
1,907 2,048 3,442 1,743 2,499 1,814 1,392 1,520 1,779 2,451 3,088 7,636
4,166 3,887 5,024 5,933 5,884 7,353 3,452 4,432 2,911 4,827 4,722 12,703
6,048 6,129 6,937 7,451 7,271 8,995 7,294
2,149 2,036 2,377 2,643 2,611 3,423 2,478
5,333 4,880 7,354 7,249 6,988 11,247 5,527
2,552 2,695 3,778 5,610 4,295 7,445 2,947
2,514 2,079 3,462 1,260 2,573 3,369 2,362
6.6 4.7
8.4 6.5
4.6 1.7
23.6 -9.0
40.3 9.1
16.5 -15.8
5.6 6.1 10.6 -2.2
6.8 3.5 6.6 8.7
3.0 4.6 10.5 -9.1
-3.7 -6.1 -22.7 -6.5
17.4 14.6 2.9 5.0
-14.1 -4.7 -32.3 -15.3
4.5 7.0
24.4 32.1
-5.0 -5.2
-16.5 -2.0
22.0 186.5
-38.4 -62.4
10.5 3.1 3.6 4.2 7.5 6.6 8.7 8.3 14.8 5.1 -1.3 -8.6
16.5 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.1 3.2 9.5 6.9 20.4 5.7 3.4
5.6 2.6 1.0 2.6 5.9 5.3 9.2 5.9 16.7 -3.3 -7.1 -16.2
-9.3 -7.0 3.6 -0.5 16.4 -23.0 -13.2 -8.1 -39.8 -23.7 -39.3 30.7
3.6 2.1 40.1 -5.6 50.7 2.0 -9.2 9.3 8.8 -25.8 -16.6 37.8
-15.0 -14.1 -13.4 3.4 16.0 -21.0 -8.4 -10.7 -59.6 -32.1 -46.7 23.4
-0.4 12.0 3.0 6.0 -0.7 15.2 1.8
25.2 34.0 16.5 34.3 17.4 44.1 22.3
-11.4 2.3 -5.1 -4.8 -10.5 -0.5 -9.2
-15.0 -20.7 -14.7 -8.0 -18.5 17.9 2.9
33.8 31.6 9.7 221.8 71.9 310.3 111.7
-39.7 -46.5 -31.1 -78.8 -56.3 -54.2 -31.6
2008
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
2007 2008 2008
I ll III IV
2009
I llP
2008
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
3,608 3,782 4,147 4,415 4,232 4,977 4,349 Y-o-Y change (%)
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
104.2 104.3 104.2 104.3 104.6 105.0 105.2 105.6 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.6
6.9 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.3
104.0 104.1 104.5 104.6 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.6 106.4 108.3 109.1 109.4
100.4 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.1 99.1 99.4 100.7 101.1 101.0
95.4 90.5 111.5 99.8 94.1 94.2 79.1 85.9 99.4 99.4 103.7 100.4
102.6 102.4 118.9 112.7 110.7 98.6 94.2 93.4 107.7 103.5 104.3 101.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.1 109.9 110.3 111.0 111.3 112.4 113.2 114.1 114.7 115.6 116.4 116.8
5.4 5.8 5.7 6.0 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.4
109.4 109.8 110.2 110.7 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.7 113.8 114.4 115.0 116.0
100.6 100.6 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.9 101.4 101.6 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.9
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.5 115.7 115.1 115.0 115.0 114.6 113.8 113.5 113.4 112.7 111.3 110.4
6.5 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.5 1.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.8 -3.2 -4.2
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.3 117.6 117.7 117.9 117.6 115.9 113.0
102.2 101.9 101.7 101.2 101.0 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.8 99.2 97.3 94.6
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
110.6 111.8 113.0 115.0 117.4P 120.5P 122.3P -
-4.1 -3.0 -2.0 0.1 2.1P 2.6P 1.5P -
110.9 110.9 111.9 113.6 114.5P 116.8P 118.4P -
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 -
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P: Preliminary Source: Korea National Statistical Office & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
September 2009
92.4 92.0 92.5 93.5 93.8P 95.4P 96.3P -
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2007 2008P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
5,876.0 -6,406.4
28,168.0 5,993.9
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
371,489.1 422,007.3
356,845.7 435,274.7
-19,767.6 -16,733.6
1,002.7 5,106.5
-3,527.1 -773.2
2007
I II III IV
-1,013.3 -1,303.6 4,344.1 3,848.8
5,721.8 5,811.9 8,881.9 7,752.4
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-5,391.3 -4,415.9 -5,256.6 -4,703.8
-618.1 -1,662.4 1,795.9 1,487.3
-725.7 -1,037.2 -1,077.1 -687.1
2008P
I II III IV
-5,212.6 -134.4 -8,579.9 7,520.5
-1,219.8 5,722.7 -3,475.5 4,966.5
99,444.5 114,492.0 115,000.1 93,070.6
106,052.9 114,792.8 122,901.0 91,528.0
-5,067.2 -4,272.7 -5,691.7 -1,702.0
1,688.1 -645.6 1,356.7 2,707.3
-613.7 -938.8 -769.4 1,548.7
2009P
I II
8,576.7 13,173.8
8,349.6 17,625.5
74,417.5 91,055.7
71,293.7 73,278.6
-1,883.3 -4,021.6
832.4 180.8
1,278.0 -610.9
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
439.4 430.4 -1,883.1 -2,558.6 193.8 1,061.2 1,773.7 589.1 1,981.3 3,010.5 1,674.4 -836.1
1,505.6 2,140.0 2,076.2 1,233.1 1,476.9 3,101.9 3,250.9 2,386.2 3,244.8 4,361.0 2,723.8 667.6
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.5 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,409.6 -2,356.4 -1,625.3 -1,371.3 -1,396.5 -1,648.1 -1,675.3 -2,050.6 -1,530.7 -1,527.0 -1,410.8 -1,766.0
610.1 867.2 -2,095.4 -2,203.8 504.0 37.4 557.1 610.7 628.1 454.1 474.8 558.4
-266.7 -220.4 -238.6 -216.6 -390.6 -430.0 -359.0 -357.2 -360.9 -277.6 -113.4 -296.1
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1,824.4 -2,534.0 -4,696.3 -1,349.6 4,753.0 1,906.7 860.8
-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3,477.9 217.6 -2,803.4 -889.7 2,625.7 844.8 1,496.0
32,274.6 31,178.2 35,991.8 37,850.2 39,383.2 37,258.6 40,961.2 36,610.6 37,428.3 37,111.1 28,841.6 27,117.9
36,318.0 32,624.3 37,110.6 38,260.4 38,704.5 37,827.9 42,952.5 40,420.4 39,528.1 36,098.8 28,853.6 26,575.6
-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.0 -1,167.4 -2,126.3 -2,456.0 -2,000.0 -1,235.7 -54.8 -130.1 -1,517.1
768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2 239.6 324.8 792.3 1,411.2 720.2 575.9
-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4 -535.2 -217.7 -16.5 770.9 471.8 306.0
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-1,635.8 3,563.7 6,648.8 4,247.4 3,495.8 5,430.6 4,397.4
-1,736.5 3,106.9 6,979.2 6,131.8 4,882.0 6,611.7 6,165.1
21,134.5 25,397.5 27,887.6 30,331.4 28,117.6 32,606.7 32,022.9
24,906.0 22,578.0 23,871.6 24,729.4 23,234.4 25,393.4 27,617.3
-708.6 -529.0 -645.7 -1,109.3 -1,466.9 -1,445.4 -1,894.1
563.5 484.6 -215.7 -855.5 358.3 678.0 481.6
245.8 501.2 531.0 80.4 -277.6 -413.7 -355.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2007 2008P
7,128.3 -50,933.3
-13,836.0 -10,594.8
-26,057.8 -15,367.5
5,444.8 -14,332.7
43,964.8 -10,599.7
-2,387.5 -38.6
-15,128.4 56,446.0
2,124.1 893.7
I II III IV
6,364.1 8,948.6 -4,323.4 -3,861.0
-900.7 -2,847.3 -2,606.0 -7,482.0
-12,227.6 -1,055.9 -11,455.8 -1,318.5
1,300.5 1,067.4 1,432.9 1,644.0
19,005.7 12,466.8 8,879.2 3,613.1
-813.8 -682.4 -573.7 -317.6
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2
-1,352.5 -1,394.9 2,475.1 2,396.4
2008P I ll III IV
395.9 -4,673.7 -4,850.5 -41,805.0
-4,790.6 -2,913.5 -2,283.5 -607.2
-9,992.8 5,997.3 -12,393.1 1,021.1
-1,072.8 -805.9 -3,470.2 -8,983.8
16,489.7 -6,718.6 13,515.7 -33,886.5
-237.6 -233.0 -219.4 651.4
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
966.7 -909.6 547.3 289.3
2009P I II
-548.7 8,893.7
-1,194.7 39.3
3,532.3 16,740.2
-4,893.6 -614.9
1,282.3 -7,565.6
736.9 275.5
-9,017.4 -19.541.8
989.4 -2,525.7
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,179.9 -527.7 4,711.9 4,481.5 4,750.1 -283.0 -552.8 137.3 -3,907.9 -3,753.9 -373.5 266.4
-222.3 -644.1 -34.3 -402.2 -282.9 -2,162.2 -322.0 -1,427.1 -856.9 -4,514.5 -1,723.4 -1,244.1
-1,915.9 -2,366.7 -7,945.0 3,601.6 -12.6 -4,644.9 -7,912.0 -6,531.8 2,988.0 -638.2 -2,473.5 1,793.2
292.8 368.2 639.5 197.7 409.0 460.7 705.2 440.1 287.6 663.4 627.2 353.4
4,381.7 2,318.3 12,305.7 1,325.2 4,871.5 6,270.1 7,203.9 7,864.1 -6,188.8 900.5 3,269.4 -556.8
-356.4 -203.4 -254.0 -240.8 -234.9 -206.7 -227.9 -208.0 -137.8 -165.1 -73.2 -79.3
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.6 863.4 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
-268.6 1,232.0 -2,315.9 -44.5 -451.0 -899.4 1,200.7 211.2 1,063.2 1,590.9 -807.1 1,612.6
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
409.2 -401.3 388.0 -376.9 -732.1 -3,564.7 -5,774.6 5,312.4 -4,388.3 -24,834.8 -12,140.9 -4,829.3
-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0 -1,214.3 -742.7 -326.5 -198.7 -213.9 -194.6
-3,829.7 -5,214.3 -948.8 4,069.9 7,623.0 -5,695.6 -8,855.9 -566.8 -2,970.4 5,172.5 -3,139.6 -1,011.8
-181.4 -212.1 -679.3 -498.2 -279.6 -28.1 -707.2 1.4 -2,764.4 -3,912.1 -1,558.7 -3,513.0
7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 -1,948.9 -7,758.2 2,988.5 5,180.4 6,730.0 1,605.3 -26,247.2 -7,439.3 -200.0
-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5 -177.6 -109.5 67.7 350.7 210.6 90.1
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -453.1 -1,155.0 698.5 -862.8 599.1 811.0 93.7 -670.0 865.6
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5,139.4 -2,976.9 -2,711.2 2,161.3 7,022.9 -290.5 2,384.8
-55.0 -545.5 -594.2 80.4 -259.6 218.5 -1,139.3
5,678.8 161.4 -2,307.9 7,133.0 4,263.5 5,343.7 7,940.1
-248.5 -2,321.2 -2,323.9 -679.8 1,341.1 -1,276.2 -272.7
-379.4 -610.3 2,272.0 -4,532.6 1,586.9 4,619.9 -4,379.3
149.6 326.1 261.2 140.5 93.8 41.2 208.5
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6
985.0 673.2 -668.8 -964.6 -270.1 -1,291.0 -1,208.6
2007
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
September 2009
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
Errors and omissions
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2007 2008
104.8 109.7
103.5 109.9
105.7 109.6
104.2 108.6
102.3 111.1
101.5 112.5
89.8 109.5
105.5 143.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 -
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 -
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
2.5 4.7
2.0 6.2
2.9 3.7
2.4 4.2
1.4 8.6
1.0 10.8
-2.1 21.8
4.5 36.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.0 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3
Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2007 2008
24,216 24,347
23,433 23,577
4,014 3,963
17,679 17,906
3.2 3.2
15,970 16,206
8,620 9,007
5,172 5,079
2,178 2,121
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
1.0 0.5
1.2 0.6
-1.0 -1.3
2.2 1.3
-
2.7 1.5
5.1 4.5
0.6 -1.8
-1.2 -2.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7
Source: Korea National Statistical Office
64
September 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2007 2008
48,543.7 52,272.8
312,832.3 307,273.6
1,197,094.8 1,367,713.4
1,603,516.0 1,794,841.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,864,111.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,388.6 1,897,923.7 1,912,745.6 1,925,341.0 1,939,962.4
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
16.5 7.7
-5.2 -1.8
11.2 14.3
10.2 11.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
66
September 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
₩ /US$
₩ /100￥
₩ /Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2007 2008
938.2 1,257.5
929.2 1,102.6
833.3 1,393.9
789.8 1,076.6
1,381.3 1,776.2
1,272.7 1,606.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,323.8
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
0.9 34.0
-2.8 18.7
6.6 67.3
-3.9 36.3
-13.0 28.6
6.1 26.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Park, Chul-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Kim, Dong-Yule (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Korea National Statistical Office http://www.nso.go.kr/eng2006