The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview Although real economy indicators such as production, investment and employment, affected by Chuseok holidays, slowed improvement in October, the Korean economy overall stayed in a recovery phase during September and October. Mining and manufacturing production decreased 3.8 percent month-on-month, while service output fell 1.4 percent. On a year-on-year basis, however, both indicators improved 0.2 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. During September and October, mining and manufacturing production rose 5.5 percent compared with the same period of the previous year, while service output grew 3.0 percent. Consumer goods sales improved at a faster pace, from an increase of 1.7 percent to 2.9 percent month-on-month and 6.6 percent to 9.8 percent year-on-year, backed by strong automobile sales and Chuseok holiday demand. Facilities investment declined 5.8 percent month-on-month in October, affected by decreasing investment in transportation equipment including airplanes, although the index improved 0.3 percent year-on-year. Construction completed fell 0.4 percent month-onmonth, or 6.5 percent year-on-year, due to poor performance in the private sector. Exports in November surged 18.8 percent year-on-year from the previous month’s 8.5 percent decline, positively affected by a rise in major exports and a low base effect. The total number of workers hired gained 10,000 year-on-year in October, increasing at a slower rate compared with the previous month’s gain of 71,000, due to weak construction. The unemployment rate dropped from the previous month’s 3.4 percent to 3.2 percent. Consumer prices in November accelerated a year-on-year increase from 2.0 percent a month earlier to 2.4 percent, as strong international oil prices pushed up oil product prices. In November, uncertainties surrounding financial markets grew due to Dubai World’s request for a standstill on debt payments on November 25, which demonstrated that potential risks still exist in the global economy and international financial markets, and that the recovery is not sustainable yet. To sum up, although the domestic economy stayed on a recovery trajectory, uncertainties surrounding the economy remain, as employment and investment have not improved enough, and international financial markets will possibly become unstable again. The Korean government will, considering external factors and other uncertainties in the economy, keep pursuing expansionary fiscal policies, spend the 2009 budget as planned, and make 2010 budget spending ready. On the other hand, measures to create jobs, support the working class and advance service industries will continue to be carried out, while external and internal uncertainties being closely monitored.
Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy is gradually emerging from the recession as the third-quarter growth in major countries such as the US, the EU and Japan turned positive. On November 19, the OECD revised up its world economic growth outlook for 2010 to 3.4 percent, higher than its June forecast of 2.3 percent growth. The organization projected economic growth of the U.S., the EU and Japan at 2.5 percent, 0.9 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively. However, uncertainties still remain over the international financial market due to a slow recovery and Dubai World’s potential default on its debt payments.
US
Although the US revised down annualized real GDP growth (preliminary) in the third quarter from 3.5 percent to 2.8 percent, the economy is on a recovery track. Industrial production slowed its pace of growth in October, posting a 0.1 percent increase month-on-month, as manufacturing of automobiles and components dropped 1.7 percent due to the end of the Cash for Clunkers Program. Sales of new and existing homes in October jumped 6.2 percent and 10.1 percent month-onmonth, respectively, backed by the tax credit for first-time home buyers, while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices rose 0.3 percent, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. In October, non-farm payrolls declined at a slower pace, whereas the unemployment rate hit 10.2 percent, the highest since 1983. The Federal Reserve raised the growth outlook to a contraction of 0.4 to 0.1 percent in 2009 and growth of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2010, from the June forecast of 1.5 to 1.0 percent shrinkage in 2009 and 2.1 to 3.3 growth in 2010. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
Real GDP
1
- Personal consumption expenditure - Corporate fixed investment - Construction investment for housing
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
0.4
-0.7
1.5
-2.7
-5.4
-6.4
-0.7
2.8
-
-0.2
-0.6
0.1
-3.5
-3.1
0.6
-0.9
2.9
-
1.6
1.9
1.4
-6.1
-19.5
-39.2
-9.6
-4.1
-
-22.9
-28.2
-15.8
-15.9
-23.2
-38.2
-23.3
19.5
-
Industrial production
-1.8
0.1
-1.2
-2.3
-3.4
-5.2
-2.7
1.4
0.1
Retail sales
-0.7
-0.5
0.4
-1.4
-6.6
-1.3
-0.3
1.5
1.4
New home sales
-37.4
-14.8
-9.6
-9.8
-15.0
-13.5
9.9
11.1
6.2
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)2
-257
-113
-153
-208
-553
-691
-428
-226
-190
3.9
4.2
4.3
5.2
1.5
-0.2
-0.9
-1.6
-0.2
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce
4
December 2009
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
Investment and consumption in China continued to improve, with exports declining at a slower pace. Consumer prices eased the slide year-on-year and home prices accelerated the increase. Home prices (y-o-y, %) -1.3 (Mar 2009)
-1.1 (Apr)
-0.6 (May)
0.2 (Jun)
1.0 (Jul)
2.0 (Aug)
2.8 (Sep)
3.9 (Oct)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
9.0
10.6
10.1
9.0
6.8
6.1
7.9
8.9
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
26.1
25.9
26.8
27.6
26.1
28.6
33.6
33.3
33.3
33.1
Retail sales
21.6
20.6
22.2
23.2
20.6
15.0
15.0
15.4
15.5
16.2
Industrial production
12.9
16.4
15.9
13.0
6.4
5.1
9.1
12.4
13.9
16.1
Exports
17.2
21.4
22.4
22.9
4.1
-19.7
-23.5
-20.7
-15.2
-13.8
Consumer prices
5.9
8.0
7.8
5.3
2.5
-0.6
-1.5
-1.3
-0.8
-0.5
Producer prices
6.9
6.9
8.4
9.7
2.5
-4.6
-7.2
-7.7
-7.0
-5.8
Real GDP
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s real GDP grew 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter (advanced estimates) in the third quarter, posting a rise for two straight quarters, as the improving global economy boosted exports and industrial production. The Cabinet Office declared the economy was in mild deflation, and was expected to reflect the situation in the 2009 supplementary budget and the 2010 budget. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
2008 Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Real GDP
-0.7
1.0
-0.7
-1.7
-3.0
-3.2
0.7
1.2
-
-
Industrial and mining production
-3.4
0.3
-1.5
-3.3
-17.7
-17.2
14.6
5.9
2.1
0.5
0.3
1.8
0.2
0.8
-1.5
-3.9
-0.9
-3.4
-1.3
-0.9
-3.5
5.9
1.8
3.2
-23.1
-46.9
-38.5
-34.4
-30.6
-23.2
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.0
-0.1
-1.0
-2.2
-2.2
-2.5
Retail sales (y-o-y, %) Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
Eurozone’s real GDP in the third quarter rose for the first time in five quarters, posting a 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter increase (advanced estimates), helped by export growth in France and Germany. Industrial production grew for a fifth consecutive month in September, as orders increased in line with the economic recovery. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
0.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.2
0.4
-
-
Industrial production
-1.8
1.0
-1.0
-1.7
-8.0
-8.6
-1.0
2.1
0.2
-
Retail sales
-0.7
0.1
-0.6
-0.5
-0.7
-0.9
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-
Exports (y-o-y, %)
3.6
6.5
8.0
5.3
-5.0
-21.3
-23.4
-19.1
-18.4
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.8
2.3
1.0
0.2
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
Real GDP
Source: Eurostat
6
December 2009
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter increased 1.5 percent quarter-onquarter, or 0.8 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Private consumption
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
20081
Annual
Annual
Q1
5.1
0.9
-
-
20091
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
4.0
2.3
1.4
-3.7
-4.4
-0.8
0.8
1.1
-0.2
0.0
-4.6
0.4
3.6
1.5
3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales in October rose 2.9 percent month-on-month, or 9.8 percent year-onyear, posting a sixth consecutive monthly increase, thanks to brisk sales of durable, semidurable and non-durable goods. On a month-on-month basis, durable and non-durable goods sales led a rise in consumer goods sales, increasing 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent respectively, while semi-durable goods sales inched up 1.3 percent. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales jumped 15.8 percent thanks to solid automobiles sales, while sales of semi-durable and non-durable goods rose 3.6 percent and 10.0 percent, respectively. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Consumer goods sales
1.0
2.9
1.4
-4.2
-4.9
1.6
3.5
1.9
6.6
9.8
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
-1.3
-0.1
-3.5
0.4
5.0
1.5
-0.4
1.7
2.9
1.9
8.7
0.0
-9.9
-13.6
4.0
10.1
6.0
26.1
15.8
- Durable goods
2
3
1
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
-2.0
7.1
-4.9
-19.5
-21.3
18.4
29.7
19.4
65.7
36.1
- Semi-durable goods4
-2.4
-2.1
0.6
-9.9
-0.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
2.6
3.6
- Non-durable goods
0.7
0.3
1.2
-0.4
-1.4
1.0
2.0
1.1
0.3
10.0
Automobiles
5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at large discounters rose year-on-year for the first time in five months, and sales at both department stores and specialized retailers posted double-digit growth. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
2009
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
0.5
3.7
0.2
-5.0
1.4
2.8
6.5
7.1
8.8
12.0
2.2
3.1
-0.2
-1.2
-5.0
-2.9
-3.2
-2.2
-2.0
5.6
-1.7
0.7
-1.0
-8.1
-6.9
2.6
4.5
1.4
8.6
10.6
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
December 2009
1
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
In November, consumer goods sales are likely to slightly decrease month-on-month due to a high base effect from Chuseok holidays. The year-on-year index, however, will continue to rise, given improvement in advanced estimates. Domestic credit card spending surged 18.3 percent year-on-year, expanding the upward trend from the previous month’s 9.4 percent. Sales at department stores grew 6.4 percent year-on-year, posting an increase for nine consecutive months, although the pace of increase slightly decelerated compared with the previous month. Sales at large discounters reversed to decrease by 2.8 percent year-on-year in November, after a month of year-on-year growth in October. Domestic sales of Korean cars soared 83.6 percent year-on-year, affected by the release of new cars, demand surge before expiration of the tax break for new car purchases and a low base effect from the previous year. Gasoline sales fell 1.6 percent year-on-year due to a decline in demand, as fear about the spread of H1N1 influenza discouraged people from traveling. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 12.4 (Jun 2009)
7.3 (Jul)
10.9 (Aug)
14.7 (Sep)
9.4 (Oct)
18.3 (Nov)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 3.6 (Jun 2009)
4.0 (Jul)
7.6 (Aug)
8.6 (Sep)
11.4 (Oct)
6.4 (Nov)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) -1.4 (Jun 2009)
-6.0 (Jul)
-1.5 (Aug)
-6.0 (Sep)
4.5 (Oct)
-2.8 (Nov)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) 46.0 (Jun 2009)
10.8 (Jul)
13.0 (Aug)
76.0 (Sep)
23.8 (Oct)
83.6 (Nov)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 11.1 (Jun 2009)
15.8 (Jul)
4.0 (Aug)
- 0.3 (Sep)
20.7 (Oct)
-1.6 (Nov)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for November data)
Despite stabilizing consumer prices and gradually improving employment, consumer sentiment declined slightly. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) -219 (May 2009)
4 (Jun)
-76 (Jul)
3 (Aug)
2.2 (Aug)
2.2 (Sep)
71 (Sep)
10 (Oct)
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 2.0 (Jun 2009)
1.6 (Jul)
2.0 (Oct)
2.4 (Nov)
The won/dollar exchange rate (monthly average) 1,261 (Jun 2009)
1,264 (Jul)
1,238 (Aug)
1,219 (Sep)
1,175 (Oct)
1,164 (Nov)
1,579 (Aug)
1,659 (Sep)
1,631 (Oct)
1,583 (Nov)
KOSPI (monthly average) 1,395 (Jun 2009)
1,460 (Jul)
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) 106 (Jun 2009)
10
December 2009
109 (Jul)
114 (Aug)
114 (Sep)
117 (Oct)
113 (Nov)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter posted a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.4 percent, and a year-on-year loss of 7.4 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
20091
1
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
9.3
-2.0
1.5
1.1
4.3
-14.0
-23.5
-15.9
-7.4
-
-
-0.4
0.4
0.2
-14.2
-11.2
10.1
10.4
- Machinery
9.2
-2.7
-1.2
-0.1
6.5
-15.3
-24.0
-19.6
-15.1
- Transportation equipment
9.6
0.4
12.2
5.1
-3.6
-9.9
-21.8
-3.2
21.8
Facility investment2 (Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment in October fell 5.8 percent month-on-month, as transportation equipment investment plummeted 16.7 percent affected by flagging investment in automobiles and aircrafts. However, it rose 0.3 percent year-on-year due to a low base effect. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Facility investment (estimated) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Machinery
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
8.2
-4.3
-13.4
-17.7
-13.4
-10.1
-15.5
5.8
0.3
-
-
-9.3
-11.6
6.6
4.2
4.2
17.9
-5.8
7.5
-5.7
-14.5
-21.9
-19.5
-17.2
-20.7
-6.0
0.2
11.3
1.5
-9.0
0.4
11.3
19.6
7.2
54.4
0.4
20.6
-5.5
-47.3
-33.8
-14.1
6.5
-15.7
31.9
3.0
- Public
-11.4
4.9
-3.5
150.5
30.9
281.3
-15.7
129.5
-75.7
- Private
24.5
-6.2
-53.9
-42.9
-18.5
-12.4
-15.7
25.5
26.9
1.7
-2.2
-15.6
-18.9
-8.5
1.5
-1.8
8.1
-3.1
- Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea & The Korea International Trade Association
Facility investment in November is projected to improve, given growing corporate investment confidence, rising domestic machinery orders, and increasing capital goods imports.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Capital goods imports (US$ billion) Source: The Bank of Korea
12
December 2009
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
97
95
100
96
98
9.03
9.62
9.48
10.50
-
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter rose 2.7 percent year-onyear, and declined 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Civil engineering works
20091
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.4
-2.1
-1.9
-0.3
0.2
-5.6
1.6
3.7
2.7
-
-
-2.5
-0.3
0.1
-3.0
5.2
1.7
-2.0
-0.0
-4.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
-14.3
-11.1
-3.5
-0.4
3.8
1.3
-3.2
-0.7
0.7
5.7
24.9
14.3
7.7
3
- Building construction
2008
1
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction completed (current value) in October dropped 6.5 percent year-on-year due to a setback in the private sector, although civil engineering works in the public sector stayed on a positive track. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
6.6
4.7
-2.2
4.5
7.0
-0.6
-7.9
7.7
-6.5
-
-
-6.2
7.7
2.2
-6.6
-5.6
8.4
-4.3
- Public
8.4
6.5
8.7
24.4
32.1
21.7
14.2
32.2
2.5
- Private
4.6
1.7
-9.1
-5.0
-5.2
-11.3
-18.6
-4.3
-10.7
23.6
-9.0
-6.5
-16.5
-2.0
9.1
-29.5
58.4
27.2
- Public
40.3
9.1
5.0
22.0
186.5
75.6
12.7
101.1
89.7
- Private
16.5
-15.8
-15.3
-38.4
-62.4
-10.7
-42.0
61.8
16.3
Construction completed (Seasonally adjusted)
2
Construction orders
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment is projected to improve in November, as construction orders continue to rise and the number of unsold houses decreases. Construction orders increased 16.3 percent year-on-year due to growing orders in both the public and private sector. Private sector construction orders advanced from a year earlier for two consecutive months for the first time since May 2008. Unsold houses (thousand) 146 (Jun 2009)
14
December 2009
140 (Jul)
134 (Aug)
126 (Sep)
120 (Oct)
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in November increased 18.8 percent year-on-year to US$34.27 billion. The large increase in exports is mainly attributed to a low base effect from the previous year. Daily average exports in working-day-adjusted-terms edged up from the previous month. Semiconductors (up 80.7%), liquid crystal devices (up 66.8%), and household appliances (up 43.7%) posted a substantial increase. Meanwhile, vessels (down 3.3%) and automobiles (down 13.7%) decreased. By regional category, exports to China (up 54.7%) and the ASEAN region (up 33.4%) expanded significantly, while exports to the US (down 0.7%) slowed the fall. (US$ billion) 2008
Exports (y-o-y, %)
2009
Annual
Nov
Jan-Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan-Nov
422.01
28.84
394.89
74.41
90.69
94.99
34.07
33.96
34.27
328.31
13.6
-19.5
16.7
-25.2
-20.8
-17.5
-9.0
-8.5
18.8
-16.9
1.53
1.28
1.57
1.10
1.30
1.32
1.42
1.48
1.49
1.29
435.27
28.85
408.70
71.42
73.72
84.79
29.75
30.33
30.22
290.49
(y-o-y, %)
22.0
-15.0
26.6
-32.7
-35.8
-31.0
-24.7
-16.0
4.7
-28.9
Average daily imports
1.58
1.28
1.63
1.06
1.06
1.18
1.24
1.32
1.31
1.14
Average daily exports Imports
Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in November rose 4.7 percent year-on-year to US$30.22 billion, but average daily imports in working-day-adjusted-terms slightly fell from the previous month. Year-on-year imports of capital goods and consumer goods reversed to an increase, while raw material imports continued to decline affected by a drop in crude oil imports due to temporary inventory adjustment. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) -34.8 (Q1 2009)
-43.1 (Q2)
-39.3 (Q3); -18.1 (Oct)
-6.7 (Nov)
-13.7 (Q3); -13.3 (Oct)
27.9 (Nov)
-20.9 (Q3); -11.0 (Oct)
10.8 (Nov)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) -29.1 (Q1 2009)
-23.6 (Q2)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) -29.5 (Q1 2009)
-24.4 (Q2)
The trade balance in November posted a surplus of US$4.05 billion, staying in the black for ten straight months since February 2009. (US$ billion) 2008
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service
16
December 2009
2009
Annual
Nov
Jan-Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
Jan-Nov
-13.27
-0.01
-13.81
2.99
16.97
10.19
4.32
3.63
4.05
37.82
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in October fell 3.8 percent month-on-month, with working days decreasing due to Chuseok holidays, but year-on-year it rose 2.0 percent, maintaining the upward trend. By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 32.7%) and chemical products (up 5.6%) increased year-on-year, while audio visual communications equipment (down 15.5%) and automobiles (down 12.8%) decreased. Shipments fell 3.1 percent year-on-year, while the level of inventory dropped at a faster pace from the previous month’s 14.0 percent to 16.4 percent. By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 19.5%) and chemical products (up 11.8%) rose, while those of audio visual communications equipment (down 13.4%) and automobiles (down 7.3%) declined. The inventories of chemical products (down 27.4%), automobiles (down 27.0%), and primary metals (down 21.9%) went down. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector registered 77.3 percent, down 3.0 percentage points month-on-month. Average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector (m-o-m, %) 72.9 (May 2009)
76.6 (Jun)
78.7 (Jul)
77.7 (Aug)
80.2 (Sep)
77.3 (Oct)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Sep
Q2
Q31
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
-
-1.9
0.7
11.4
7.1
-1.2
5.4
-3.8
(y-o-y)
3.0
5.6
6.3
-6.2
4.2
1.0
11.0
0.2
- Manufacturing
3.0
5.6
6.2
-6.6
4.3
1.0
11.4
0.3
4.1
6.8
7.1
-6.2
5.6
2.3
12.4
1.9
-2.2
0.0
2.0
-8.8
-1.8
-5.3
6.4
-7.4
2.4
5.3
6.1
-5.8
2.1
-1.0
8.8
-0.6
Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2009
Q3
Annual
Heavy chemical industry Light industry Shipment - Domestic demand
-0.7
1.7
1.5
-6.6
3.1
-0.7
12.4
-1.1
- Exports
7.1
10.3
12.4
-4.7
0.8
-1.3
4.3
-0.1
Inventory
7.3
17.3
17.3
-16.7
-14.0
-14.2
-14.0
-16.4
77.2
78.3
77.3
73.7
78.9
77.7
80.2
-
5.2
5.3
4.9
1.9
2.8
2.8
3.2
-
3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry Source: Statistics Korea
3. End-period
In November, mining and manufacturing production is projected to increase, considering a low base effect from the previous month and improving advanced estimates of electricity sales and exports. Industrial electricity sales (thousand GWh) 17.9 (Jul 2009)
17.4 (Aug)
18.3 (Sep)
17.7 (Oct)
18.0 (Nov)1
28.9 (Aug)
34.1 (Sep)
34.0 (Oct)
1. Estimate
Exports (US$ billion) 32.6 (Jun 2009)
18
December 2009
32.0 (Jul)
34.3 (Nov)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in October decreased 1.4 percent from the previous month partly due to the H1N1 flu pandemic. From a year earlier, however, service output expanded 1.5 percent. By business category, real estate & renting services (up 14.3%), healthcare & social welfare services (up 11.2%) and financial & insurance services (up 4.9%) led the year-on-year increase in the service sector. Meanwhile, entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 6.6%) and educational services (down 5.7%) declined from a year earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2008
2009
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-0.4
1.6
Service activity index
100
3.4
3.2
-0.4
- Wholesale & retail
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
2.2
1.0
4.5
1.5
1
22.0
1.4
3.6
-4.6
-4.0
-2.2
0.3
-1.1
3.3
1.9
- Transportation services
9.0
4.3
4.3
-3.2
-10.8
-9.5
-4.2
-5.2
0.3
-2.6
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
0.7
1.7
-3.0
-2.4
-0.3
-2.2
-5.5
0.3
-2.7
- Information & communication services
8.4
3.5
3.4
-0.2
-1.9
0.9
1.6
0.4
3.5
1.5
- Financial & insurance services
15.3
9.7
9.6
4.5
6.6
9.8
8.7
9.7
9.5
4.9
- Real estate & renting
6.3
-2.1
-8.4
-7.5
-3.1
1.5
9.5
10.7
10.2
14.3
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
2.0
1.8
0.9
-1.9
3.2
0.2
-1.8
3.3
-2.8
- Business services
2.9
4.6
3.2
0.1
-4.8
-6.6
-1.1
-0.2
-1.2
-0.6
- Educational services
10.8
1.8
-0.5
2.3
3.7
6.9
-2.6
-5.9
-0.3
-5.7
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
6.3
6.1
6.5
8.6
8.1
10.0
9.7
12.1
11.2
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.2
1.7
4.3
1.5
0.9
0.1
-6.9
4.8
-6.6
- Membership organizations
3.8
0.1
-1.4
-1.0
-3.4
-5.0
-1.4
-4.2
2.6
-0.7
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
5.8
3.9
4.0
0.5
8.8
5.5
1.0
9.6
-3.4
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea
Despite robust advanced indicators including credit card spending, service activity in November is likely to remain at a similar level to the previous month mainly affected by the H1N1 flu for which the government on November 3 raised its alert status to its highest “Red� level. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 7.3 (Jul 2009)
20
December 2009
10.9 (Aug)
14.7 (Sep)
9.4 (Oct)
18.3 (Nov)
l es
l&
tate
ncia
tion
& re
ranc
e se
ns
& Bus bus iness f ines acil s su ity m ppo ana rt se gem rvic ent es & Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea serv lthcare ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente serv rtainm ices ent , cu ltur al & spo Me rts m othe bersh r pe ip o rson rgan al s izati ervi ons Sew ces , re pair reco erage, & very was & re te m med ana iatio gem n ac ent, tivit mate ies rials
es
atio
rvic
unic
s
omm
rant
tail
insu
&c
stau
ion
& re
ntin g Pro tech fession nica al, s l se cien rvic tifi c es
Rea
Fina
rtat
ale
& re
rma
els
Info
Hot
spo
oles
Tran
Wh
ex
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
October 2009 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in October climbed by 10,000 from a year earlier, with the government’s efforts to create jobs. Employment in the manufacturing sector stayed on a downward track declining by 87,000, mainly due to falling exports. Hiring in the construction sector continued to fall with a 147,000 decrease as increased orders of civil engineering works in the public sector were offset by weak construction in the private sector. Employment in the service sector soared by 269,000 driven by the government’s job creation policies. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
Oct
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Employment growth
145
97
209
173
141
54
-146
-134
-1
71
10
- Manufacturing
-52
-92
-18
-34
-52
-103
-163
-151
-143
-118
-87
- Construction
-37
-42
-22
-46
-40
-41
-43
-113
-103
-75
-147
- Services
263
250
307
300
262
187
47
155
269
278
269
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-37
-22
-63
-54
-38
8
14
-25
-25
-19
-29
Source: Statistics Korea
By status of workers, non-wage workers including self-employed workers plunged by 367,000 from a year earlier. Meanwhile, wage workers rose by 376,000 led by an increase of 490,000 in regular workers and 136,000 in temporary workers, although the number of daily workers shrank by 250,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
Oct
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Employment growth
145
97
209
173
141
54
-146
-134
-1
71
10
- Wage workers
236
167
312
289
208
137
73
175
356
466
376
Regular workers
386
313
435
448
347
316
318
313
386
464
490
Temporary workers
-93
-85
-98
-96
-83
-94
-136
-5
125
136
136
Daily workers
-57
-61
-25
-63
-56
-85
-108
-133
-155
-134
-250
-92
-70
-102
-115
-66
-83
-220
-309
-357
-395
-367
-79
-111
-79
-67
-76
-95
-197
-286
-276
-324
-266
- Non-wage workers Self-employed workers Source: Statistics Korea
The employment rate stood at 59.3 percent, down 0.7 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points yearon-year to 3.2 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.5 percentage points from a year earlier to 7.6 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
Unemployment rate (%) Employment rate (%)
22
December 2009
2009
Annual
Oct
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
3.2
3.0
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
59.5
60.0
58.5
60.3
59.9
59.4
57.4
59.3
59.1
59.2
59.3
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in November fell affected by bad news from the global economy. The KOSPI has surpassed the 1,600 points during the month boosted by an expected upward revision of Korea’s growth rate as well as domestic listed companies’ better performance in the third quarter. The Korean main bourse, however, plunged around the end of the month, as investors are increasingly worried about the fallout from the bankruptcy of US CIT group and Dubai World’s six-month standstill on debt repayments. Despite a record low value of transaction this year, foreign investors continued their netbuying of Korean shares since July in line with expanded investment into emerging markets by foreign investors. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI
Stock price index
KOSDAQ
Oct 2009
Nov 2009
Change1
Oct 2009
Nov 2009
Change1
1,580.7
1,555.6
-25.1 (-1.6%)
486.5
464.3
-22.2 (-4.6%)
828.2
818.5
-9.7 (-1.2%)
77.9
75.4
-2.5 (-3.2%)
Average daily trade value
5.5
4.0
-1.5 (-27.3%)
1.7
1.6
-0.1 (-5.9%)
Foreign stock ownership
31.4
32.7
1.3 (-4.1%)
6.9
7.3
0.4 (5.8%)
Market capitalization
1. Change from the end of the previous year
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in November fell 19.7 won from 1,182.5 won at the end of October to wrap up the month at 1,162.8 won. The exchange rate dropped to 1,153 won, the lowest this year, on November 18, as the dollar remained weak after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s decision to continue its expansionary monetary policy. It, thereafter, turned to an increase as investors’ appetite for safe assets grew amid Dubai World’s request for a standstill on debt payments. The won/yen exchange rate rose to the 1,300 won range with the yen’s appreciation. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
2009 Oct
Nov
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,182.5
1,162.8
8.3
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,299.3
1,348.8
3.6
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
December 2009
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields were down in November as the Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its loose monetary policy while foreign investors posted a net buying of KTB (Korea Treasury Bond) futures. The yields fell at an even faster pace toward the end of the month as demand for safer assets increased in the aftermath of Dubai World’s default on its debt payments. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sep
Oct
2009 Nov
Call rate (1 day)
3.76
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.00
2.01
2.01
0
CD (91 days)
4.09
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.75
2.79
2.79
0
Change1
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
5.08
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.39
4.44
4.10
-34
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.52
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.53
5.58
5.21
-37
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.36
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.81
4.94
4.61
-33
1. Basis point changes in August 2009 from end December 2008
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in September expanded 10.0 percent from a year earlier. Excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009, the year-on-year M2 growth stood at 9.5 percent, a similar level to the previous month’s 9.6 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2007
2009
2008
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Jul
Aug
Sep
Sep1
-5.2
-1.8 -12.4
-0.1
2.1
2.7
5.0
10.8
17.6
17.6
18.5
18.5
19.5
367.1
M2
11.2
14.3
13.3
15.3
14.7
14.5
13.8
11.5
10.1
10.1
9.7
10.0
10.0 1,535.3
Lf3
10.2
11.9
11.6
12.8
12.1
12.2
11.2
8.8
7.3
7.3
7.7
8.0
7.7 1,956.14
M1+
2
Annual
1. Balance at end September 2009, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Balance at end August 2009, trillion won
Despite an increase in time deposits with higher deposit rates, bank deposits in October reversed course to a decrease with industrial financial debentures transferred (16.5 trillion won) in accordance with the split-up of the Korea Development Bank and the establishment of the Korea Financial Corporation. Asset management company (AMC) deposits continued to decline due to redemptions of equity funds as well as less money inflows into money market funds (MMFs) with fund withdrawals by individual and corporate investors. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007 Annual
2008
2009
Oct
Annual
Oct
Sep
Oct
Nov
Oct1
Bank deposits
59.6
8.4
104.3
22.7
13.5
16.5
-6.8
1,014.3
AMC deposits
61.8
13.0
63.0
2.4
-7.8
-18.3
-7.3
338.5
1. Balance at end October 2009
26
December 2009
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account recorded a US$4.94 billion surplus in October. The goods account surplus expanded to US$5.72 billion from US$5.28 billion a month earlier as exports showed strong performance led by vessels. The service account deficit decreased to US$1.13 billion from the previous month’s US$1.63 billion, due to the improved travel account. Despite an increase in dividend payments, the income account surplus remained at a level similar to the previous month to record US$540 million as expanded foreign reserve boosted interest income. The current transfer account deficit slightly increased to US$190 million from the previous month’s US$160 million with decreased inflow of overseas remittance. (US$ billion) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct Jan-Oct
Current account
-6.41
-5.21
-0.13
-8.58
7.52
8.58
13.17
10.31
4.03
4.94
37.00
- Goods balance
5.99
-1.22
5.72
-3.48
4.97
8.35
17.63
14.74
5.28
5.72
46.43
- Service balance
-16.73
-5.07
-4.27
-5.69
-1.70
-1.88
-4.02
-5.32
-1.63
-1.13
-12.35
- Income balance
5.11
1.69
-0.65
1.36
2.71
0.83
0.18
1.62
0.55
0.54
3.17
- Current transfers
-0.77
-0.61
-0.94
-0.77
1.55
1.28
-0.61
-0.73
-0.16
-0.19
-0.26
Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account in October posted a net inflow of US$1.54 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -0.55 (Q1 2009)
8.89 (Q2)
15.05 (Q3)
7.20 (Sep)
1.54 (Oct)
The direct investment account slightly expanded the net outflow to register US$280 million from the previous month’s deficit of US$230 million due to an increase in overseas investment by locals. The portfolio investment account decreased the net inflow to record US$6.13 billion from US$7.91 billion a month earlier as foreign investment in the Korean stock market declined. The financial derivatives account deficit rose from the previous month’s US$300 million to post US$570 million, as revenue related to overseas financial derivative transactions decreased. The other investment account significantly expanded the net outflow to post US$3.74 billion from the previous month’s deficit of US$60 million as financial institutions increased foreign currency-denominated lending. The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$3.5 billion in November as the trade balance posted a surplus of US$4.05 billion.
28
December 2009
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
29
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in November increased 2.4 percent month-on-month while rising 0.2 percent year-on-year. The overall price index was up 0.2 percent month-on-month as prices of industrial goods, which is relatively heavily weighted to the index, showed strength although prices for agricultural, livestock and fishery products went down. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products declined 2.7 percent from the previous month due to increased supply with the fall harvest season in full swing and favorable weather conditions. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in November 2009 (m-o-m, %) Rice (-2.8), radish (-11.9), Chinese cabbage (-37.5), pumpkin (32.0), grapes (3.5), Korean beef (0.8), pork (-7.4), scabbard fish (3.9), yellow corvina (0.4), Alaska pollack (0.1)
Prices of oil products increased 3.0 percent from a month earlier affected by strong international oil prices and LPG price increases in November. Prices of oil products in November 2009 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (2.2), diesel (3.2), kerosene (3.9), LPG for automobiles (6.6), LPG for kitchen use (6.1)
Public utility charges remained at a similar level to the previous month as an increase in local heating fees affected by the implementation of the fuel adjustment mechanism was almost negligible. Despite higher expenses for dining-out affected by beef price increases, personal service charges rose mere 0.1 percent due to the continuing deflation gap and price slash in mobile data charges.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p) Year-on-Year (%) Contribution (%p)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.2
-2.7
1.0
3.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.18
-0.23
0.33
0.17
0.02
0.00
0.03
2.4
2.8
3.7
1.9
1.1
1.5
2.0
2.44
0.23
1.17
0.11
0.11
0.25
0.68
Source: Statistics Korea
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 2.5 percent year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 2.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2008
2009
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
-0.3
0.2
Year-on-Year (%)
4.5
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.4
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
5.3
5.6
5.2
5.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
(m-o-m)
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
4.0
3.0
2.8
3.3
3.1
3.0
1.8
0.5
0.4
1.3
1.7
1.5
2.3
Month-on-Month (%)
Source: Statistics Korea
30
December 2009
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices Fluctuating in the high-US$70s, international oil prices in November rose month-on-month affected by the US dollar movement, oil stockpiles and new economic data. (US$/barrel, period average) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dubai crude
61.6
68.4
94.3
40.5
69.4
65.0
71.4
67.7
73.2
77.7
Brent crude
65.1
72.8
97.5
40.4
68.6
64.6
72.9
67.5
72.8
76.7
WTI crude
66.0
72.3
99.9
41.6
69.7
64.2
71.1
69.4
75.8
78.1
Source: KOREAPDS
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)
Despite the won’s depreciation, domestic prices of oil products went up as strong international oil product prices after mid-October were reflected with the time lag. (Won/liter, period average) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Gasoline prices
1,492
1,526
1,692
1,329
1,607
1,639
1,670
1,681
1,627
1,655
Diesel prices
1,228
1,273
1,614
1,303
1,389
1,428
1,447
1,453
1,409
1,452
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of non-ferrous metals excluding nickel continued to rise while international prices of grain including corn, wheat and soybean rose due to the weak dollar and increased export demand. Prices of non-ferrous metals excluding nickel increased with expectations of economic recovery amid the weak dollar and buoyant data on US home sales. On the other hand, nickel prices fell affected by concerns over oversupply and the delay in stainless steel demand recovery. Corn and wheat prices rose due to the weak dollar and increased demand while the soybean price moved upward with strong US demand. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in November 2009 (m-o-m, %) Corn (5.0), wheat (8.9), soybean (4.7), bronze (6.2), aluminum (3.5), nickel (-8.3), zinc (6.1), lead (2.9), tin (1.8)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2006
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2,019
2,400
2,536
1,767
2,117
2,082
2,159
2,147
2,197
2,243
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS
32
December 2009
2009
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In November, nationwide apartment sales prices were up 0.3 percent month-on-month. The pace of increase, however, decelerated for two straight months. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area, which is under the influence of low season, financial regulations and supply of Bogeumjari Houses, remained steady. On the other hand, apartment sales in other cities, especially metropolitan cities (up 0.8%), increased relatively significantly.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov Dec Annual Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct Nov Nov21 Nov91 Nov161 Nov231
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
Seoul
24.1
Gangnam2
27.6
Gangbuk3 Seoul metropolitan area
2.3
-0.1 -0.5 -0.5
1.4 -1.2
0.4
1.5
0.4
0.3
0.05
0.05
0.06
3.6
3.2
-0.3 -0.8 -1.6
2.6 -1.3
1.0
2.6
0.3
0.0
0.01 -0.03 -0.05
0.00
0.5
-1.9
-0.5 -1.2 -2.0
4.0 -1.1
1.7
3.1
0.3
0.0
0.02 -0.03 -0.07 -0.01
19.0
8.3
9.4
-0.1 -0.4 -1.3
0.9 -1.7
0.2
2.0
0.4
0.1
0.01 -0.03 -0.03
24.6
4.0
2.9
-0.3 -1.0 -1.4
0.8 -1.8
0.5
1.8
0.3
0.0
0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.01
5 metropolitan cities
2.1 -0.6
1.0
0.1
0.0 -0.3
2.2 -0.7
0.3
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.12
0.16
0.14
0.15
Other cities
3.0
2.3
0.2
0.0 -0.3
1.8 -0.3
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.6
0.09
0.10
0.13
0.13
1. Weekly trends
0.3
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
0.06
0.00
Source: Kookmin Bank
The rental prices continued the upward pace although the rising pace decelerated with the beginning of the winter low season.
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov Dec Annual Q1
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam
Q2
Q3
Oct Nov Nov51 Nov121 Nov191 Nov261
7.6
1.9
0.8
0.2 -0.4 -1.4
4.2 -1.3
0.9
2.8
0.9
0.8
0.13
0.09
0.11
0.08
11.5
2.2
-1.8
-0.2 -1.0 -2.7
7.7 -0.8
1.8
4.7
1.1
0.8
0.11
0.06
0.09
0.07
11.3
0.5
-3.6
-0.6 -1.2 -0.9
9.8 -0.1
2.4
5.1
1.1
1.0
0.12
0.13
0.13
0.09
Gangbuk3
11.8
4.6
0.5
0.2 -0.7 -2.4
5.2 -1.6
1.0
4.2
1.1
0.6
0.09 -0.02
0.04
0.04
Seoul metropolitan area
2
11.7
2.1
-0.4
0.1 -0.9 -2.2
5.5 -1.8
1.4
4.1
1.0
0.7
0.09
0.04
0.05
0.02
5 metropolitan cities
3.0
1.1
1.6
0.2
0.1 -0.4
3.2 -0.9
0.4
1.9
0.8
1.1
0.12
0.13
0.18
0.15
Other cities
4.1
2.2
2.6
0.4
0.1 -0.5
2.4 -0.4
0.5
1.0
0.5
0.7
0.20
0.19
0.17
0.15
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in October decreased 3.5 percent from 90,490 a month earlier to post 87,329. The transactions were up 28.5 percent from a year earlier and 1.6 percent compared with the monthly average recorded in the same month for the past 3 years.
Apartment sales transactions 2006 Annual
Nationwide
94
December 2009
2007
2008
Oct Annual Oct Annual Oct 110
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
(Monthly average, thousand)
84
80
74
68
2009
Nov Dec 54
57
Jan
Feb
Mar
49
60
79
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
76
91
81
90
87
72
81
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in October rose 0.30 percent, a similar level to the previous month’s 0.31 percent. The accumulated increase rate from January to October was 0.31 percent, with land prices standing below the record high in October 2008 by 3.83 percent. Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area continued an upward trend as Incheon and Gyeonggi province saw land prices rising by 0.51 percent and 0.42 percent, respectively. In addition, other cities witnessed a higher price increases. Land price increases in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.06 (Jul 2009)
0.09 (Aug)
0.12 (Sep)
0.16 (Oct)
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nationwide
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
-0.31
1.23
1.46
1.18
-4.08
-1.20
0.35
0.88
0.30
Seoul
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
-1.00
1.83
2.17
1.59
-6.34
-1.38
0.68
1.30
0.30
Gyeonggi
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
-0.26
1.28
1.57
1.28
-4.28
-1.62
0.37
1.13
0.42
Incheon
4.86
1.13
1.37
1.36
1.67
2.01
-3.57
-1.39
0.53
1.16
0.51
1.24
1.28
1.12
Source: Korea Land Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in October expanded 10.9 percent or 21,000 land lots from a year earlier to 212,000 land lots. In terms of gross area, land transactions were down 3.8 percent. Land transactions in Gyeonggi (up 45.6%) and Incheon (up 34.7%) increased year-on-year in terms of land lots while those of Daegu (down 25.9%) and South Jeolla province (down 17.6%) decreased.
Land sales transactions
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Mar
Jun
Sep
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2009 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nationwide
208
208
237
244
173
162
134
164
207
207
192
215
222
206
226
212
Seoul
33
26
31
38
20
13
13
15
20
24
22
27
26
25
28
25
Gyeonggi
49
45
50
55
37
31
26
34
41
48
45
49
50
48
56
52
Incheon
13
13
16
15
11
8
7
7
9
10
9
10
11
10
13
14
Source: Korea Land Corporation
36
December 2009
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index, a barometer of the current economic conditions, remains unchanged in October from the previous month. The volume of imports, the domestic shipment index, the wholesale & retail sales index and the service activity index contributed to the increase. Components of the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index in October 2009 (m-o-m) Volume of imports (3.2%), domestic shipment index (0.4%), wholesale & retail sales index (-0.3%), service activity index (0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.2%), mining & manufacturing production index (0.1%), value of construction completed(-0.1%), manufacturing operation ration index (-0.6%)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, went up 1.0 percentage point month-on-month in October. The 12-month smoothed change in leading composite index increased 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, running on an upward track since January. The value of received construction orders, the composite stock price index, the indicator of inventory cycle, the consumer expectations index, and the liquidity in the financial institutions were up. Components of the leading composite index rose in October 2009 (m-o-m) Value of received construction orders (-26.4%), composite stock price index (5.2%), indicator of inventory cycle (2.1%p), consumer expectations index (2.1%p), volume of capital goods imports (0.0%), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.8%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (0.7%p), net terms of trade index (0.6%), spreads between long & short term interest rate (0.1%p), value of machinery orders received (-13.8%)
2009 Jan
Feb
Jul
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
-1.9
0.0
1.2
0.9
0.6
0.4
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
92.4
92.0
96.2
96.7
96.9
96.9
(m-o-m, p)
-2.2
-0.4
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.1
1.4
1.0
0.8
1.0
-4.0
-2.9
7.8
9.1
10.2
11.3
0.1
1.1
2.1
1.3
1.1
1.1
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%) (m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
38
December 2009
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues 2010 Economic Policies
Background The current crisis is expected to bring about a fundamental paradigm shift in the world economic order and industrial structure. There seems to be uncertainties in the world economy which will not grow at as high a rate as it did before the crisis. In the process of correcting the global imbalance and tightening financial regulations, disputes between nations and re-emergence of protectionism are likely, along with competition for natural resources and energy. Against this backdrop, the Korean government set up economic policies for 2010, which is aimed at adapting the economy to low energy consumption, exploring and nurturing new growth engines, boosting domestic demand, creating jobs and strengthening social safety nets.
Key directions for 2010 economic policies The 2010 economic policies center on improving the real economy and developing growth potential. First of all, the government will make efforts to transform the nascent economic recovery into robust and sustained growth that will stimulate investment and employment, which, in turn, will result in real economy improvement. The five major policy directions are: 1. Stabilizing the economy by continuing with the expansionary fiscal policies and enhancing the country’s capacity to deal with external influences 2. Creating decent jobs in the private sector and pursuing active labor market policies 3. Stabilizing inflation and real estate markets, and supporting low income classes 4. Developing new growth engines and pursuing low energy consumption 5. Addressing low birth rates, ageing population and growing fiscal burden
40
December 2009
Main contents 1. Achieving sustainable economic recovery The government will continue its expansionary fiscal measures until the private sector rebounds, while withdrawing temporary measures as planned to ward off moral hazard. Financial policies will remain eased with measures to brace for rising household and corporate debts, but provisional measures to fight the global crisis will be unwound. The government will gradually reduce temporary government jobs from 800,000 in 2009 to 550,000 in 2010, given the slow recovery of private sector employment. Government’s credit guarantee will be extended until the first half of 2010, with the guarantee level declining from 95 percent in 2009 to 90 percent in January 2010 and further down to 85 percent in July. Korea will have more financial agility with flexible reserve requirements. Large-scale financial institutions will be more closely monitored, given their considerable impact on the economy, while banks will be banned from excessive lending. The government will also tighten regulations on the foreign currency liquidity ratio and introduce guidelines for managing foreign currency risks. To enhance industrial competitiveness of the country, the government planned to nurture high-tech SMEs by supporting their R&D projects, 350 of which will be selected for the support. In addition, 20 components and materials which are mostly likely to replace imports and spur large demand, will be selected for state support. Young adults with an entrepreneurial spirit will be strongly backed by the government through a state-developed five year program, which is designed to educate future venture businessmen and help them start business. The Venture Investment Fund of around 3.5 trillion won will be set up by 2012. Regulations on M&A and corporate spin-off will be eased. Plant exports and exports by SMEs and ship builders will be strongly backed: Korea Eximbank will increase export financing from 53 trillion won in 2009 to 60 trillion won in 2010. The Korea Export Insurance Corporation will raise its support for export insurance from 170 trillion won in 2009 to 190 trillion won in 2010.
2. Creating Jobs The government will found a basis for creating decent jobs in the private sector by innovating service industries and increasing job market flexibility. Measures to develop markets for professional services will be drawn up, which will be followed by law revisions. The Medical Service Development Plan is now being made into regulations, and discussions over allowing for-profit hospitals which accept funds from private investors are underway. Industries creating more jobs and higher added value will receive more support: The examples of the industries are social welfare services such as day caring and nursing, and content and leisure industries. The government will provide assistance to municipal
Economic Bulletin
41
governments when they develop regionally specialized industries. Regulations will be modified in a way to facilitate reforming job markets and stabilizing labor-management relations. Rules concerning irregular workers will be examined based on employment situations of irregular workers. The two-year limit of a contract term will be applied with exceptions, for example a university lecturer position not to be affected by the law. The government will encourage part-time employment to promote female hiring and create family-friendly work environment. As the private sector employment has not recovered yet, government’ s job creating efforts will continue until private sector employment revives: Budgets for Hope Employment Project through which 100,000 will find jobs and the internship program to recruit 37,000 college graduates will be spent in the first half of 2010. In addition, job seekers will find more opportunities in social welfare fields with 140,000 jobs in 2010, an increase of 11,000 from 2009’s 129,000. To attract foreign investment to industries creating quality jobs, the government planned to expand tax incentives and cash support: Foreign investment in future growth engines will be eligible for the same tax exemption and reduction given to the investment in high-tech industries. Government’s cash support will be expanded to small-scale foreign investments along with an increased ceiling of the cash support.
3. Supporting working classes The government proposed policy responses to improve livelihood of the working class as belows: First, the government will stabilize consumer prices and real estate markets; second, provide more jobs and educational opportunities; and third, strengthen social safety nets. Measures to control inflation and real estate markets cover promoting fair competition among producers, tightening mortgage loan conditions, and supplying more houses low income classes can afford. The government will keep pushing toward social safety nets not leaving out those in desperate need of help. Social safety nets to be introduced in 2010 are aids for single mothers at the age of 24 or younger, monthly pension plans for the seriously handicapped, and financial aids for those with Alzheimer’s disease. Farmers and fishermen will pay reduced premiums for the public health insurance and pension plan, and assistance for farming and fishing will be available on their request in case of accidents or diseases outbreaks. Those receiving basic living support will be eligible for a savings account called ‘Raising Hope’ designed to help become self-reliant. Regarding college loans, College students will be able to choose the Income Contingent Repayment option from the first semester of 2010. More students will benefit from after school vouchers, with which students pay for after
42
December 2009
school programs. The number of microcredit institutions will be increased from 30 to 200300 in 2010, along with the introduction of micro-insurance, which will use public funds from the postal service insurance. Those from the low income class will be eligible for the insurance at a monthly premium of 10,000 won.
4. Green growth and low energy consumption Green industries and the four-river restoration project will be a foundation for a low-energy consuming economy, and will expand Korea’s capacity to respond to future climate change. To develop green industries, the government will certify green enterprises and technologies from January 2010 to facilitate funding from private investors. Furthermore, certified green technologies will be financed long-term at low cost through financial facilities exclusive for green technologies including green savings and bonds. Existing manufacturers will be strongly recommended to improve energy efficiency. The government allocated more R&D budgets to green technologies from 2 trillion won in 2009 to 2.2 trillion in 2010, which will be appropriated to developing core technologies such as offshore wind power generators and secondary batteries. Tax incentives will be increased for R&D investment in those technologies from the current tax deduction of 3-6 percent to 20 percent for new growth engines, and 25 percent for core technologies. Funds for new growth engines, worth 200 billion won, will be created, and existing funds will be attracted into early investment in those fields. The four river restoration project will step into the second phase in 2010, with 60 percent of dredging and embankment construction completed by the end of the year and compensation for land by the first half. To promote energy saving, the current energy pricing system will gradually be changed in a way to reflect fuel costs. To help develop technologies for clean energy production, CO2 emissions reduction and high energy efficiency, 760 billion won are earmarked in 2010, up from 2009’s 640 billion.
5. Addressing future challenges The Korean government set up measures to address future challenges such as low birth rates and growing mid-to long-term fiscal burden. On top of that, a solid basis for policy making and new economic indices will be developed, while current methods used to produce economic indicators being improved. Government’s grants for In Vitro Fertilization will be expanded to couples earning below 150 percent of the national average income from those earning below 130 percent of the urban average income. Grants for artificial fertilization will be added in 2010.
Economic Bulletin
43
Working parents with more than two kids will be offered various supports for child delivery and rearing. More working parents will be eligible for education fee support as the income bar for the support will be lowered. 70 percent of the low income bracket will be provided with free education for second children and later ones. The government will keep a total fiscal operating cost increase below one percent. Tax expenditure budget will be introduced in 2010 to manage fiscal spending in a more integrated way. Budgets will be spent more transparently with the introduction of the accrual-based double entry accounting system. Introduction of Asset Liability Management is under consideration, as a way to effectively manage the pension fund. Cooperated efforts to improve financial soundness of the public health insurance will be made by the related authorities. Methods used to produce major economic indices will be improved to reduce a gap between the indices and the real market. New housing market indicators will be introduced to show the current market and future supply and demand. Indices reflecting changes affected by low carbon green growth, multicultural families and ageing population will be developed.
44
December 2009
Economic News Briefing
Q3 GDP growth revised upward to 3.2% (Preliminary) Korea’s real GDP expanded 3.2 percent from a quarter earlier (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter, up 0.3 percentage points from the advanced estimate of 2.9 percent released on October 26. From a year earlier, GDP grew 0.9 percent compared with the initial estimate of a 0.6 percent rise. It was the fastest quarter-on-quarter growth since the first quarter of 2002, when GDP grew 3.8 percent from the previous quarter. The upward revision reflects improved economic data including September industrial output.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period) 20081
20091
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
GDP
2.2
0.2 (3.1)2
-5.1 (-3.4)
0.1 (-4.2)
2.6 (-2.2)
3.2 (0.9)
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
5.5
0.6
-0.1
-0.1
-1.7
4.9 (3.1)
Manufacturing
3.1
0.1
-11.9
-3.4
8.9
9.8 (1.6)
-2.4
1.1
-4.2
5.9
-0.2
-0.5 (0.7)
Construction Services
2.5
0.5
-1.4
0.3
1.1
0.7 (0.9)
Private consumption
0.9
0.0
-4.6
0.4
3.6
1.5 (0.8)
Facility investment
-2.0
0.2
-14.2
-11.2
10.1
10.4 (-7.4)
Construction investment
-3.0
5.2
1.7
-2.0 (2.7)
3
-2.1
0.1
4
4.1
-0.9
-12.6
-3.4
14.7
5.2 (1.8)
Goods imports4
4.6
1.2
-15.7
-6.2
7.4
8.6 (-7.9)
Domestic demand
1.4
0.8
-7.3
-2.6
1.3
4.1 (-4.4)
Goods exports
*At 2005 chained prices, seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Figures in parenthesis denote percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms. 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis Economic Bulletin
45
OECD, KDI upgrade Korea’s growth forecast On November 19, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised the 2009 growth outlook for Korea to 0.1 percent from the previous projection of minus 2.2 percent. The international organization also lifted the nation’s 2010 growth forecast to 4.4 percent from the previous estimate of 3.5 percent. The Paris-based agency attributed the faster-than-expected recovery of Korea to buoyant exports and expansionary fiscal policy. The international body noted that although the impact of fiscal stimulus will fade in 2010, a sustained pick-up in exports is projected to help boost output growth to 4 to 4.5 percent in both 2010 and 2011, with a rebound in domestic demand and a marked fall in unemployment. Meanwhile, Korea Development Institute (KDI), a government-sponsored think tank, predicted that Korea’s GDP will expand 0.2 percent this year before rising 5.5 percent in 2010. That compares with the previous forecast of a 0.7 percent contraction and a 4.2 percent expansion in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
OECD Outlook for Korea’s GDP
(Percentage change from previous period) 2009
2011
2010
Jun 2009 Outlook
Nov 2009 Outlook
Jun 2009 Outlook
GDP growth
-2.2
0.1
3.5
4.4
4.2
- Private consumption
-2.6
0.2
3.0
2.9
3.2
- Gross fixed capital formation - Exports of goods & services Net exports1
-5.1
-1.7
6.6
3.6
4.9
-10.5
-0.1
7.0
13.4
12.9
2.3
4.4
-2.0
-0.4
0.3
Unemployment rate
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.6
3.4
Consumer price index
2.5
2.7
2.0
2.8
3.0
3.3
4.6
1.7
1.3
1.0
-1.2
-1.8
-2.3
0.4
1.1
Current account balance
2
General government financial balance2
Nov 2009 Outlook
Nov 2009 Outlook
1. Contribution to GDP growth (%p) 2. As a percentage of GDP
Korea and US vow to broaden common grounds on key issues Korean President Lee Myung-bak and the US President Barack Obama held summit talks in Seoul on November 19. The leaders discussed several issues including North Korean nuclear solutions, Korea-US free trade agreement (FTA) and other global issues including G20 Summit, green growth, climate change, etc. They reaffirmed the solid Korea-US alliance and agreed to further develop the partnership to an exemplary strategic alliance of the 21st century. Regarding the North Korean nuclear issue, President Lee and President Obama shared the view that the issue requires a definite and comprehensive resolution, or “Grand Bargain”, and agreed to closely consult on measures
46
December 2009
to elaborate and implement the approach. Meanwhile, both sides recognized the economic and strategic importance of the Korea-US FTA and committed to work together to move the agreement forward. In addition, the two leaders highly praised the results of the G20 Summit held in Pittsburgh and promised to cooperate for the success of the upcoming G20 Summit in Korea.
Korea proposes drastic target for greenhouse gas reduction Korea has set its voluntary target to cut greenhouse gas emission by 30 percent from its business-as-usual (BAU) level by 2020, the strongest level of commitment recommended to developing countries by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Korea aims at curtailing its greenhouse gas emission to 569 million tons in 2020, down 4 percent from the 590 million tons it produced in 2005 and 30 percent below the projected 813 million tons it would produce in 2020, announced the government on November 17. The plan is the most ambitious of three possible measures set out in July, and could put pressure on developed nations to act more aggressively to fight global warming. Korea’s reduction target reflects President Lee Myung-bak’s ambitious “green growth and low carbon” policy. President Lee said in a statement that while the emission reduction would present “short-term burdens” it would also bring “broader national gains.” He added that Korea would be ready for industrialized countries’ carbon trade tariffs and could strengthen its energy security and acquire market share first in rapidly growing green sectors through aggressive greenhouse gas reduction.
Korea’s accession to the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) approved Korea has been accepted as a member to the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on November 25. The DAC is the principal body through which the OECD deals with issues relating to co-operation with developing countries. In order to accept a country as its member, the agency assess the size of a country’s aid program, the existence of appropriate institutions and policies to mange aid, the quality of a country’s statistical reporting on ODA efforts, and a country’s ability and willingness to implement important DAC recommendations. Korea’s gaining membership is significant since it is the first nation that has successfully moved from an aid recipient to an aid donor since the establishment of the OECD. As with the inclusion as a member into the DAC at this time, Korea has become a member of all 25 sub-committees of the OECD.
Economic Bulletin
47
Meanwhile, the 2nd Korea-Africa forum was held in Seoul on November 24. In the joint declaration, Korea and the African Union’s member states vowed to work together on social and economic assistance projects. In addition, the Korean government has decided to double its official development assistance (ODA) levels to the African region, invite 5,000 trainees, and send over 1,000 volunteers by 2012.
Korea announces strategies for external economic policy On December 4, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced strategies for external economic policy for 2010-2013 to secure new growth engines, strengthen global and intraregional partnerships, enhance contributions and leadership in international community, and develop external infrastructure. According to the blueprint, the government plans to set up FTA strategies to secure new growth engines and link them with high value added services such as legal and accounting services. Consequently, service industries such as law, accounting, medical care and education will be pushed for strategic market opening. Regulations on real estate including price cap will also be lifted in free economic zones (FEZs) to attract foreign investment. In addition, the plan includes measures to improve overseas competitiveness of small-and medium-sized enterprises, globalize the financial sector, and upgrade the country’s official development assistance (ODA) to developing countries. It is the first time for the government to establish a mid-to long-term plan on external economic policies.
Korea introduces measures to strengthen forex soundness The Financial Services Commission (FSC) on November 19 unveiled measures to help local firms better manage foreign-exchange (forex) risks and prevent a foreign liquidity crunch. The steps follow a draft plan of “Financial Institutions’ Forex Soundness and Strengthened Supervision” announced on September 25. Korean banks are required to hold at least 2 percent of their foreign-currency assets in safe assets carrying an investment rating of ‘A’ or higher. From early 2010, both local banks and branches of foreign banks are not allowed to trade forex forwards worth more than 125 percent of the value of exports to prevent excessive forex hedging. Asset-management companies will be required to provide customers more information on forex hedge costs and effects through prospectus and introduce investment products with different forex hedge ratios. In addition, the minimum ratio of mid-to long-term foreign financing in foreign loan portfolio (mid-to long-term financing / mid-to long-tern lending) at local banks will be raised to 90 percent from the current level of 80 percent. The FSC will work towards tightening it to 100 percent or more in the first half of 2010.
48
December 2009
Bank of Korea expands inflation target band for 2010-2012 On November 26, the Bank of Korea set a new inflation target for 2010-2012. The target inflation range has been expanded to between 2 percent and 4 percent, compared with a 2.5-3.5 percent range set for 2007-2009. With respect to broadening the inflation range from 0.5 percentage point to
1 percentage point, the bank noted uncertainties in prices would
likely to increase between 2010 and 2012 as inflation environments over the period would be significantly different from the period before the global financial crisis. The inflation target for the next horizon will be set before the end 2012 in order to ensure the continuity of monetary policy.
Korea to become the 9th largest exporter this year Korea is set to become the ninth largest exporter this year thanks to a relatively smaller contraction in exports amid the global economic downturn. For the first nine months of the year, the nation’s exports posted US$260 billion, the ninth largest in the world. Korea saw exports decrease of 20.9 percent during the January to September period, which compares with a 27.8 percent contraction of worldwide exports. The Korean government forecasts the country’s trade surplus to register a record high of US$40 billion this year. Meanwhile, the Korean government will make every effort to open the door wider for exporters through free trade agreements (FTAs) and lower transportation-related costs by advancing logistics system at industrial parks, said the Ministry of Knowledge Economy on November 30 on occasion of the country’s 46th Trade Day, an annual event. The government hopes Korea to become the world’s eighth largest exporter by the year 2014.
Economic Bulletin
49
50
December 2009
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
7.2 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2
-2.2 -5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.5
8.7 5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 3.1
8.1 0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 1.6
Construction
Facilities
7.1 4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.7
6.2 8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.1
7.3 -1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -2.0
2002
I II III IV
6.6 7.0 6.8 8.1
2.3 -2.4 -1.1 -5.5
5.1 7.2 9.3 13.1
10.3 9.1 7.7 5.7
7.5 7.9 3.2 9.6
11.4 7.2 -1.5 9.4
2.6 7.7 9.8 9.1
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008P
I II III IV
5.5 4.3 3.1 -3.4
7.4 4.4 4.2 6.4
9.1 8.4 5.6 -9.1
3.9 2.6 2.0 -1.9
-0.5 0.6 1.8 -7.3
-1.9 -0.3 0.2 -5.6
1.5 1.1 4.3 -14.0
2009P
I II III
-4.2 -2.2 0.9
1.5 -1.2 3.1
-13.6 -7.3 1.6
-2.0 0.9 1.7
-8.1 -2.7 -0.8
1.6 3.7 2.7
-23.5 -15.9 -7.4
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
December 2009
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2007 2008
Production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
115.9 119.4
6.9 3.0
115.3 118.1
7.2 2.4
117.2 125.7
5.6 7.3
112.2 116.0
6.8 3.4
2007
I II III IV
109.6 114.9 112.9 126.2
4.1 6.3 6.1 10.9
109.6 115.2 111.9 124.7
5.2 7.1 5.6 10.5
114.0 114.5 112.7 117.2
5.0 4.1 2.9 5.6
106.7 111.2 112.6 118.1
5.5 6.5 7.4 7.4
2008
I II III IV
121.6 125.1 119.2 111.9
10.9 8.9 5.6 -11.3
119.6 122.8 117.8 112.1
9.1 6.6 5.3 -10.1
123.7 133.1 132.2 125.7
8.5 16.2 17.3 7.3
113.8 116.5 116.2 117.6
6.7 4.8 3.2 -0.4
2009
I II III P
102.7 117.4 124.2
-15.5 -6.2 4.2
102.0 115.7 120.3
-14.7 -5.8 2.1
116.5 110.9 113.7
-5.8 -16.7 -14.0
113.3 118.4 118.6
-0.4 1.6 2.1
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.8 100.2 115.7 113.8 115.8 115.1 113.4 113.7 111.6 128.6 127.6 122.5
8.7 -0.2 3.5 6.4 5.8 6.7 13.6 9.0 -3.0 16.1 7.7 9.4
110.3 101.7 116.8 114.6 116.0 114.9 112.6 112.5 110.6 126.3 126.1 121.6
8.3 2.0 5.1 7.5 6.6 6.9 14.3 7.3 -3.5 15.6 7.8 8.6
118.6 115.6 114.0 111.8 114.2 114.5 115.6 115.6 112.7 115.0 114.9 117.2
10.8 8.4 5.0 4.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 5.5 2.9 4.9 4.3 5.6
105.9 102.8 111.4 109.4 112.1 112.1 112.1 112.9 112.8 115.3 115.6 123.4
4.3 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.2 8.1 10.0 7.9 4.5 9.3 6.7 6.2
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.0 110.9 127.8 126.1 126.1 123.1 123.1 115.8 118.6 126.2 110.0 99.6
11.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 8.9 7.0 8.6 1.8 6.3 -1.9 -13.8 -18.7
121.7 109.7 127.3 124.5 123.5 120.3 121.5 114.5 117.3 124.0 109.5 102.8
10.3 7.9 9.0 8.6 6.5 4.7 7.9 1.8 6.1 -1.8 -13.2 -15.5
123.9 124.4 123.7 124.8 128.9 133.1 132.4 132.3 132.2 135.1 133.4 125.7
4.5 7.6 8.5 11.6 12.9 16.2 14.5 14.4 17.3 17.5 16.1 7.3
114.2 109.3 118.0 116.3 117.7 115.5 116.8 115.1 116.8 116.9 113.9 121.9
7.8 6.3 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.0 4.2 1.9 3.5 1.4 -1.5 -1.2
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
93.9 99.8 114.4 115.8 114.7 121.7 124.0 117.0 131.7 126.5
-25.5 -10.0 -10.5 -8.2 -9.0 -1.1 0.7 1.0 11.0 0.2
93.2 99.5 113.2 114.5 112.8 119.8 119.9 113.4 127.6 123.2
-23.4 -9.3 -11.1 -8.0 -8.7 -0.4 -1.3 -1.0 8.8 -0.6
124.4 118.1 116.5 112.6 111.4 110.9 112.7 113.5 113.7 112.9
0.4 -5.1 -5.8 -9.8 -13.6 -16.7 -14.9 -14.2 -14.0 -16.4
113.0 109.6 117.2 118.5 118.1 118.7 117.9 116.2 122.1 118.7
-1.1 0.3 -0.7 1.9 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.0 4.5 1.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
December 2009
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
109.7 115.4
5.4 5.2
100.4 96.8
0.1 -3.6
80.1 77.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2007 2008 2007
I II III IV
107.5 108.3 110.2 112.6
4.5 4.5 6.0 6.4
97.2 102.6 96.2 105.5
-2.1 0.7 -1.7 3.4
78.9 79.9 80.1 81.3
2008
I II III IV
114.0 115.3 116.0 116.5
6.0 6.5 5.3 3.5
98.9 102.7 95.1 90.6
1.7 0.1 -1.1 -14.1
80.8 80.4 78.3 69.3
2009
I II IIIP
116.9 117.5 119.3
2.5 1.9 2.8
80.7 94.3 97.6
-18.4 -8.2 2.6
65.8 73.7 78.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.2 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.2 110.8 112.3 112.5 113.0
4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5
99.8 88.2 103.6 101.5 103.9 102.5 98.3 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.7
2.6 -7.2 -1.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 7.3 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 0.9
78.5 79.5 78.8 78.8 80.5 80.4 80.6 81.1 78.6 81.9 81.0 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 114.3 114.7 115.5 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.8
6.2 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4
102.9 89.2 104.6 104.2 103.0 100.8 99.4 91.9 94.1 103.8 89.1 78.9
3.1 1.1 1.0 2.7 -0.9 -1.7 1.1 -4.9 0.3 -5.1 -17.0 -20.9
81.3 80.2 80.9 81.0 80.0 80.2 79.2 78.4 77.3 77.3 68.4 62.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.2 117.2 118.2 118.8 119.2 119.9 120.2
2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4
72.9 78.8 90.4 93.1 92.2 97.5 98.4 90.9 103.4 99.1
-29.2 -11.7 -13.6 -10.7 -10.5 -3.3 -1.0 -1.1 9.9 -4.5
61.4 66.9 69.2 71.5 72.9 76.6 78.7 77.7 80.3 77.3
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2007 2008
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
109.3 110.4
5.1 1.0
124.7 127.1
9.6 1.9
108.1 105.5
3.9 -2.4
108.5 109.3
5.2 0.7
2007
I II III IV
106.6 108.3 107.1 115.1
5.2 4.3 7.2 3.6
119.6 124.6 126.0 128.6
16.6 12.5 10.2 0.8
99.9 110.1 94.1 128.5
5.4 1.5 3.6 5.4
106.6 107.6 110.5 109.4
4.3 3.5 8.4 5.0
2008
I Il III IV
111.3 111.4 108.6 110.3
4.4 2.9 1.4 -4.2
131.0 135.5 126.0 115.9
9.5 8.7 0.0 -9.9
103.7 107.8 94.7 115.8
3.8 -2.1 0.6 -9.9
108.6 107.9 111.8 109.0
1.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4
2009
I II IIIP
105.9 113.2 112.3
-4.9 1.6 3.4
113.2 140.9 138.5
-13.6 4.0 10.1
102.8 108.1 94.9
-0.9 0.3 0.2
107.1 109.0 114.0
-1.4 1.0 2.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.6 110.1 106.6 111.3 107.0 105.0 103.6 112.6 113.4 113.9 118.1
0.4 10.3 5.6 3.8 5.6 3.6 9.1 5.8 6.6 6.8 3.9 0.5
118.7 111.2 128.8 120.5 126.5 126.8 130.5 127.0 120.5 124.8 129.1 131.8
22.0 11.5 16.2 13.9 14.3 9.4 20.7 11.4 -0.3 11.7 4.0 -10.3
98.0 91.5 110.2 111.5 116.2 102.5 94.4 80.0 107.8 123.9 130.0 131.7
4.6 5.7 5.8 -0.1 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.8 4.6 8.2 4.3 3.9
104.4 107.4 108.1 105.0 110.3 107.4 105.3 109.6 116.7 109.3 106.6 112.2
-4.9 16.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 1.9 8.7 5.7 10.9 4.1 5.4 5.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.2 115.1 113.0 114.8 106.3 109.3 105.9 110.5 109.5 108.6 112.8
5.2 3.5 4.5 6.0 3.1 -0.7 4.1 2.2 -1.9 -3.4 -4.7 -4.5
129.5 118.7 144.8 140.6 137.6 128.2 141.1 121.5 115.4 124.4 109.0 114.4
9.1 6.7 12.4 16.7 8.8 1.1 8.1 -4.3 -4.2 -0.3 -15.6 -13.2
104.5 97.3 109.2 109.2 112.5 101.8 98.0 87.1 99.1 112.5 121.2 113.8
6.6 6.3 -0.9 -2.1 -3.2 -0.7 3.8 8.9 -8.1 -9.2 -6.8 -13.6
108.1 107.9 109.8 108.1 111.7 103.9 105.7 111.4 118.2 105.8 107.0 114.3
3.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.3 -3.3 0.4 1.6 1.3 -3.2 0.4 1.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
108.0 100.7 109.1 108.6 116.6 114.3 111.3 107.9 117.8 120.2
-3.3 -6.1 -5.2 -3.9 1.6 7.5 1.8 1.9 6.6 9.8
102.5 114.3 122.9 123.7 142.8 156.3 141.3 128.8 145.5 144.0
-20.8 -3.7 -15.1 -12.0 3.8 21.9 0.1 6.0 26.1 15.8
103.2 96.8 108.4 110.0 113.5 100.7 95.8 87.3 101.7 116.6
-1.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.2 0.2 2.6 3.6
113.6 98.8 108.8 107.0 112.5 107.5 110.9 112.6 118.6 116.4
5.1 -8.4 -0.9 -1.0 0.7 3.5 4.9 1.1 0.3 10.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
December 2009
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2007 2008
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
113.0 114.6
6.0 1.4
124.5 126.6
12.8 1.7
108.4 109.8
3.2 1.3
-
2007
I II III IV
111.1 111.0 111.3 118.7
8.4 7.8 2.4 5.9
119.8 122.5 122.9 132.8
17.6 15.0 9.3 9.9
107.6 106.4 106.7 113.0
4.8 4.7 -0.5 4.1
-
2008
I II III IV
117.3 115.7 113.5 111.8
5.6 4.2 2.0 -5.8
132.5 136.4 123.0 114.5
10.6 11.3 0.1 -13.8
111.3 107.5 109.7 110.7
3.4 1.0 2.8 -2.0
-
2009
I II IIIP
105.9 113.1 118.4
-9.7 -2.2 4.3
112.8 137.9 137.6
-14.9 1.1 11.9
103.2 103.2 110.7
-7.3 -4.0 0.9
-
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.9 104.3 114.1 111.6 113.0 108.5 109.7 112.9 111.3 121.6 118.0 116.4
11.1 8.0 6.2 10.1 8.8 4.7 10.0 6.0 -7.1 11.8 3.1 2.9
118.0 113.7 127.8 119.9 125.3 122.4 124.3 125.0 119.5 136.4 131.8 130.2
21.9 14.8 16.2 19.5 18.2 8.0 23.6 13.9 -5.8 16.9 6.7 6.5
113.6 100.5 108.6 108.3 108.0 102.9 103.9 108.1 108.0 115.7 112.4 110.9
7.2 5.0 2.2 6.3 4.8 3.2 4.5 2.8 -7.6 9.6 1.4 1.3
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.2 106.4 120.3 119.8 115.8 111.6 117.6 111.3 111.5 119.5 107.0 108.8
9.0 2.0 5.4 7.3 2.5 2.9 7.2 -1.4 0.2 -1.7 -9.3 -6.5
131.5 122.4 143.5 144.0 136.9 128.2 134.2 118.8 116.0 127.8 111.0 104.6
11.4 7.7 12.3 20.1 9.3 4.7 8.0 -5.0 -2.9 -6.3 -15.8 -19.7
122.7 100.0 111.1 110.1 107.4 105.0 111.0 108.3 109.7 116.2 105.5 110.5
8.0 -0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.6 2.0 6.8 0.2 1.6 0.4 -6.1 -0.4
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
105.7 102.3 109.8 110.5 111.5 117.4 117.6 109.9 127.7P 119.7P
-15.6 -3.9 -8.7 -7.8 -3.7 5.2 0.0 -1.3 14.5P 0.2P
99.0 115.2 124.3 119.0 138.6 156.0 143.7 124.6 144.5P 138.6P
-24.7 -5.9 -13.4 -17.4 1.2 21.7 7.1 4.9 24.6P 8.5P
108.4 97.2 104.0 107.1 100.6 102.0 107.1 104.0 120.9P 112.1P
-11.7 -2.8 -6.4 -2.7 -6.3 -2.9 -3.5 -4.0 10.2P -3.5P
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007 2008
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
27,279 23,798
2,199 2,309
25,080 21,488
15,635 12,809
118.1 113.0
114.5 114.5
Manufacturing
2008
I ll III IV
7,863 6,088 5,474 4,372
371 535 354 1,049
7,492 5,552 5,121 3,324
4,936 3,140 2,947 1,786
112.8 121.2 113.7 104.3
111.7 120.6 113.9 111.9
2009
I ll IIIP
5,205 5,227 5,833
931 701 1,348
4,274 4,527 4,484
2,083 2,330 2,456
92.8 104.9 102.2
98.1 111.2 106.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,110 2,339 2,414 2,043 1,863 2,182 2,372 1,688 1,414 1,711 1,259 1,402
148 68 155 95 89 352 179 87 88 399 207 444
3,661 2,271 2,259 1,947 1,775 1,830 2,193 1,602 1,326 1,312 1,053 959
2,032 1,571 1,332 1,137 913 1,090 1,239 965 743 754 555 478
107.8 104.2 126.4 122.6 122.5 118.4 118.9 113.3 108.9 105.8 103.6 103.5
106.3 102.9 125.9 119.6 122.1 120.0 119.6 108.3 113.8 112.5 108.2 115.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
1,636 1,727 1,842 1,534 1,466 2,228 2,544 1,423 1,865 1,762
232 519 181 93 98 510 1,074 73 201 97
741 562 780 690 700 940 795 691 970 939
84.7 92.4 101.3 99.4 102.7 112.6 96.5 95.7 114.3 106.1
84.3 97.5 112.5 109.5 102.9 121.1 106.4 97.0 115.4 106.9
2007 2008
20.6 -12.8
-11.4 5.0
29.9 -18.1
8.2 -4.3
3.3 0.0
1,404 1,209 1,661 1,441 1,368 1,718 1,470 1,350 1,663 1,665 Y-o-Y change (%) 24.5 -14.3
2008
I ll III IV
22.7 -0.5 -15.2 -47.3
9.7 84.7 -26.9 -3.5
23.5 -4.7 -14.3 -53.9
44.6 -7.4 -23.7 -64.0
-3.8 -2.7 3.0 -13.4
1.3 0.6 6.5 -7.4
2009
I ll IIIP
-33.8 -14.1 6.5
150.5 30.9 281.3
-42.9 -18.5 -12.4
-57.8 -25.8 -16.7
-17.7 -13.4 -9.9
-12.2 -7.8 -6.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
51.2 2.6 16.7 5.0 -6.4 0.0 17.0 -9.0 -45.0 -46.4 -52.6 -42.8
67.3 -54.7 55.3 3.2 -2.4 229.6 5.3 -32.2 -52.8 349.0 -5 -43.2
50.5 6.6 14.7 5.1 -6.6 -11.8 18.1 -7.3 -44.4 -57.7 -56.8 -42.7
78.7 26 29.5 5.9 -13.6 -13.7 12.0 -1.4 -58.2 -67.5 -66.9 -50.8
-2.2 -8.0 -1.5 -4.2 -1.1 -2.7 7.0 -0.9 2.9 -6.2 -14.9 -18.4
1.8 0.2 1.6 4.4 -0.8 -1.7 7.1 2.6 10.0 -1.0 -10.1 -10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
-47.4 -26.2 -23.7 -24.9 -21.3 2.1 7.3 -15.7 31.9 3.0
56.4 660.1 16.7 -2.9 10.5 45.1 498.8 -15.7 129.5 -75.7
-52.6 -46.8 -26.5 26 22.9 -6.2 -32.9 -15.7 25.5 26.9
-63.6 -64.2 -41.4 -39.3 -23.4 -13.8 -35.9 -28.4 30.6 24.5
-21.4 -11.3 -19.9 -18.9 -16.2 -4.9 -18.8 -15.5 5.0 0.3
-20.7 -5.2 -10.6 -8.4 -15.7 1.0 -11.0 -10.4 1.4 -5.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
December 2009
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
25,098 26,728
54,559 55,509
112,502 102,321
28,695 31,320
77,554 65,294
Public
82,939 86,806
2007 2008
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completed (total)
2008
I ll III IV
18,283 22,158 22,317 24,047
5,279 6,568 6,503 8,383
12,142 14,367 14,712 14,288
21,048 25,995 17,061 38,217
7,398 6,056 4,691 13,175
13,077 19,171 10,795 22,252
2009
I ll IIIP
19,115 23,716 22,181
6,562 8,678 7,915
11,536 13,623 13,052
17,567 25,485 18,620
9,024 17,350 8,237
8,055 7,201 9,640
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,074 5,473 6,736 7,026 7,321 7,811 7,168 7,312 7,837 7,741 7,779 8,528
1,716 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,376 2,025 2,139 2,339 2,498 2,572 3,312
4,072 3,698 4,372 4,636 4,731 5,001 4,789 4,822 5,101 4,819 4,743 4,726
6,275 6,152 8,621 7,880 8,578 9,537 5,372 6,169 5,519 8,187 8,151 21,879
1,907 2,048 3,442 1,743 2,499 1,814 1,392 1,520 1,779 2,451 3,088 7,636
4,166 3,887 5,024 5,933 5,884 7,353 3,452 4,432 2,911 4,827 4,722 12,703
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
6,048 6,129 6,937 7,451 7,271 8,995 7,005 6,734 8,442 7,237
2,149 2,036 2,377 2,643 2,611 3,423 2,380 2,443 3,092 2,561
5,333 4,880 7,354 7,249 6,988 11,247 5,527 4,352 8,741 10.415
2,552 2,695 3,778 5,610 4,295 7,445 2,947 1,713 3,576 4,650
2,514 2,079 3,462 1,260 2,573 3,369 2,362 2,569 4,709 5,616
6.6 4.7
8.4 6.5
23.6 -9.0
40.3 9.1
16.5 -15.8
2007 2008
3,608 3,782 4,147 4,415 4,232 4,977 4,249 3,923 4,879 4.302 Y-o-Y change (%) 4.6 1.7
2008
I ll III IV
5.6 6.1 10.6 -2.2
6.8 3.5 6.6 8.7
3.0 4.6 10.5 -9.1
-3.7 -6.1 -22.7 -6.5
17.4 14.6 2.9 5.0
-14.1 -4.7 -32.3 -15.3
2009
I ll IIIP
4.5 7.0 -1.2
24.4 32.1 20.8
-5.0 -5.2 -11.8
-16.5 -2.0 9.1
22.0 186.5 75.6
-38.4 -62.4 -10.7
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
10.5 3.1 3.6 4.2 7.5 6.6 8.7 8.3 14.8 5.1 -1.3 -8.6
16.5 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.1 3.2 9.5 6.9 20.4 5.7 3.4
5.6 2.6 1.0 2.6 5.9 5.3 9.2 5.9 16.7 -3.3 -7.1 -16.2
-9.3 -7.0 3.6 -0.5 16.4 -23.0 -13.2 -8.1 -39.8 -23.7 -39.3 30.7
3.6 2.1 40.1 -5.6 50.7 2.0 -9.2 9.3 8.8 -25.8 -16.6 37.8
-15.0 -14.1 -13.4 3.4 16.0 -21.0 -8.4 -10.7 -59.6 -32.1 -46.7 23.4
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9P 10P
-0.4 12.0 3.0 6.0 -0.7 15.2 -2.3 -7.9 7.7 -6.5
25.2 34.0 16.5 34.3 17.4 44.1 17.5 14.2 32.2 2.5
-11.4 2.3 -5.1 -4.8 -10.5 -0.5 -11.3 -18.6 -4.3 -10.7
-15.0 -20.7 -14.7 -8.0 -18.5 17.9 2.9 -29.5 58.4 27.2
33.8 31.6 9.7 221.8 71.9 310.3 111.7 12.7 101.1 89.7
-39.7 -46.5 -31.1 -78.8 -56.3 -54.2 -31.6 -42.0 61.8 16.3
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
104.2 104.3 104.2 104.3 104.6 105.0 105.2 105.7 106.4 107.4 108.1 108.7
6.9 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.4
104.0 104.1 104.5 104.6 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.6 106.4 108.3 109.1 109.4
100.4 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.1 99.1 99.4 100.7 101.1 101.0
95.4 90.5 111.5 99.8 94.1 94.2 79.1 85.9 99.4 99.4 103.7 100.4
102.6 102.4 118.9 112.7 110.7 98.6 94.2 93.4 107.7 103.5 104.3 101.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.2 109.9 110.3 111.0 111.3 112.3 113.2 114.1 114.9 115.8 116.7 117.0
5.5 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9 7.6
109.4 109.8 110.2 110.7 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.7 113.8 114.4 115.0 116.0
100.6 100.6 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.9 101.4 101.6 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.9
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.6 115.8 115.2 114.9 114.8 114.4 113.7 113.5 113.4 112.7 111.3 110.4
6.6 5.1 3.9 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.8 -3.3 -4.3
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.3 117.6 117.7 117.9 117.6 115.9 113.0
102.2 101.9 101.7 101.2 101.0 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.8 99.2 97.3 94.6
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.7 111.9 113.0 115.0 117.4 120.5 122.2 123.4P 124.4P 125.7P -
-4.0 -2.9 -1.9 0.1 2.6 5.8 7.8 9.1P 10.2P 11.3P -
110.9 110.9 111.9 113.6 114.5 116.9 118.3 119.4P 120.1P 120.6P -
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 -
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
December 2009
92.4 92.0 92.5 93.5 93.8 95.4 96.2 96.7P 96.9P 86.9P -
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2007 2008P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
5,876.0 -6,406.4
28,168.0 5,993.9
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
371,489.1 422,007.3
356,845.7 435,274.7
-19,767.6 -16,733.6
1,002.7 5,106.5
-3,527.1 -773.2
2007
I II III IV
-1,013.3 -1,303.6 4,344.1 3,848.8
5,721.8 5,811.9 8,881.9 7,752.4
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-5,391.3 -4,415.9 -5,256.6 -4,703.8
-618.1 -1,662.4 1,795.9 1,487.3
-725.7 -1,037.2 -1,077.1 -687.1
2008P
I II III IV
-5,212.6 -134.4 -8,579.9 7,520.5
-1,219.8 5,722.7 -3,475.5 4,966.5
99,444.5 114,492.0 115,000.1 93,070.6
106,052.9 114,792.8 122,901.0 91,528.0
-5,067.2 -4,272.7 -5,691.7 -1,702.0
1,688.1 -645.6 1,356.7 2,707.3
-613.7 -938.8 -769.4 1,548.7
2009P
I II III
8,576.7 13,173.8 10,304.7
8,349.6 17,625.5 14,736.4
74,412.0 90,689.0 94,987.0
71,421.4 73,723.6 84,797.6
-1,883.3 -4,021.6 -5,315.1
832.4 180.8 1,617.1
1,278.0 -610.9 -733.7
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
439.4 430.4 -1,883.1 -2,558.6 193.8 1,061.2 1,773.7 589.1 1,981.3 3,010.5 1,674.4 -836.1
1,505.6 2,140.0 2,076.2 1,233.1 1,476.9 3,101.9 3,250.9 2,386.2 3,244.8 4,361.0 2,723.8 667.6
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.5 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,409.6 -2,356.4 -1,625.3 -1,371.3 -1,396.5 -1,648.1 -1,675.3 -2,050.6 -1,530.7 -1,527.0 -1,410.8 -1,766.0
610.1 867.2 -2,095.4 -2,203.8 504.0 37.4 557.1 610.7 628.1 454.1 474.8 558.4
-266.7 -220.4 -238.6 -216.6 -390.6 -430.0 -359.0 -357.2 -360.9 -277.6 -113.4 -296.1
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,751.3 -2,350.7 -110.6 -1,581.3 -377.5 1,824.4 -2,534.0 -4,696.3 -1,349.6 4,753.0 1,906.7 860.8
-1,095.2 -599.1 474.5 1,632.3 612.5 3,477.9 217.6 -2,803.4 -889.7 2,625.7 844.8 1,496.0
32,274.6 31,178.2 35,991.8 37,850.2 39,383.2 37,258.6 40,961.2 36,610.6 37,428.3 37,111.1 28,841.6 27,117.9
36,318.0 32,624.3 37,110.6 38,260.4 38,704.5 37,827.9 42,952.5 40,420.4 39,528.1 36,098.8 28,853.6 26,575.6
-2,138.1 -2,249.6 -679.5 -979.0 -1,167.4 -2,126.3 -2,456.0 -2,000.0 -1,235.7 -54.8 -130.1 -1,517.1
768.0 700.7 219.4 -1,932.0 459.2 827.2 239.6 324.8 792.3 1,411.2 720.2 575.9
-286.0 -202.7 -125.0 -302.6 -281.8 -354.4 -535.2 -217.7 -16.5 770.9 471.8 306.0
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-1,635.8 3,563.7 6,648.8 4,247.4 3,495.8 5,430.6 4,358.7 1,912.2 4,033.8 4,944.6
-1,736.5 3,106.9 6,979.2 6,131.8 4,882.0 6,611.7 6,126.4 3,332.0 5,278.0 5,721.0
21,130.6 25,397.2 27,883.6 30,325.4 27,807.8 32,555.8 31,977.5 28,940.7 34,068.9 33,956.5
24,928.1 22,591.7 23,901.7 24,797.5 23,328.1 25,598.1 27,641.1 27,406.3 29,750.2 30,325.8
-708.6 -529.0 -645.7 -1,109.3 -1,466.9 -1,445.4 -1,894.1 -1,791.3 -1.629.7 -1,127.2
563.5 484.6 -215.7 -855.5 358.3 678.0 481.6 587.4 548.1 541.2
245.8 501.2 531.0 80.4 -277.6 -413.7 -355.2 -215.9 -162.6 -191.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2007 2008P
7,128.3 -50,933.3
-13,836.0 -10,594.8
-26,057.8 -15,367.5
5,444.8 -14,332.7
43,964.8 -10,599.7
-2,387.5 -38.6
-15,128.4 56,446.0
2,124.1 893.7
I II III IV
6,364.1 8,948.6 -4,323.4 -3,861.0
-900.7 -2,847.3 -2,606.0 -7,482.0
-12,227.6 -1,055.9 -11,455.8 -1,318.5
1,300.5 1,067.4 1,432.9 1,644.0
19,005.7 12,466.8 8,879.2 3,613.1
-813.8 -682.4 -573.7 -317.6
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.6 -2,384.2
-1,352.5 -1,394.9 2,475.1 2,396.4
2008P I ll III IV
395.9 -4,673.7 -4,850.5 -41,805.0
-4,790.6 -2,913.5 -2,283.5 -607.2
-9,992.8 5,997.3 -12,393.1 1,021.1
-1,072.8 -805.9 -3,470.2 -8,983.8
16,489.7 -6,718.6 13,515.7 -33,886.5
-237.6 -233.0 -219.4 651.4
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
966.7 -909.6 547.3 289.3
2009
-548.7 8,893.7 15,050.3
-1,194.7 39.3 -1,485.1
3,532.3 16,740.2 19,914.7
-4,893.6 -614.9 -1,296.5
1,282.3 -7,565.6 -2,259.3
736.9 275.5 164.2
-9,017.4 -19.541.8 -23,886.9
989.4 -2,525.7 -1,468.1
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,179.9 -527.7 4,711.9 4,481.5 4,750.1 -283.0 -552.8 137.3 -3,907.9 -3,753.9 -373.5 266.4
-222.3 -644.1 -34.3 -402.2 -282.9 -2,162.2 -322.0 -1,427.1 -856.9 -4,514.5 -1,723.4 -1,244.1
-1,915.9 -2,366.7 -7,945.0 3,601.6 -12.6 -4,644.9 -7,912.0 -6,531.8 2,988.0 -638.2 -2,473.5 1,793.2
292.8 368.2 639.5 197.7 409.0 460.7 705.2 440.1 287.6 663.4 627.2 353.4
4,381.7 2,318.3 12,305.7 1,325.2 4,871.5 6,270.1 7,203.9 7,864.1 -6,188.8 900.5 3,269.4 -556.8
-356.4 -203.4 -254.0 -240.8 -234.9 -206.7 -227.9 -208.0 -137.8 -165.1 -73.2 -79.3
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.6 863.4 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
-268.6 1,232.0 -2,315.9 -44.5 -451.0 -899.4 1,200.7 211.2 1,063.2 1,590.9 -807.1 1,612.6
2008P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
409.2 -401.3 388.0 -376.9 -732.1 -3,564.7 -5,774.6 5,312.4 -4,388.3 -24,834.8 -12,140.9 -4,829.3
-2,488.7 303.5 -2,605.4 -1,911.9 -262.6 -739.0 -1,214.3 -742.7 -326.5 -198.7 -213.9 -194.6
-3,829.7 -5,214.3 -948.8 4,069.9 7,623.0 -5,695.6 -8,855.9 -566.8 -2,970.4 5,172.5 -3,139.6 -1,011.8
-181.4 -212.1 -679.3 -498.2 -279.6 -28.1 -707.2 1.4 -2,764.4 -3,912.1 -1,558.7 -3,513.0
7,013.3 4,819.9 4,656.5 -1,948.9 -7,758.2 2,988.5 5,180.4 6,730.0 1,605.3 -26,247.2 -7,439.3 -200.0
-104.3 -98.3 -35.0 -87.8 -54.7 -90.5 -177.6 -109.5 67.7 350.7 210.6 90.1
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
906.0 1,048.9 -988.2 -453.1 -1,155.0 698.5 -862.8 599.1 811.0 93.7 -670.0 865.6
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5,139.4 -2,976.9 -2,711.2 2,161.3 7,022.9 -290.5 2,384.8 5,461.0 7,204.5 1,543.4
-55.0 -545.5 -594.2 80.4 -259.6 218.5 -1,139.3 -111.2 -234.6 -281.7
5,678.8 161.4 -2,307.9 7,133.0 4,263.5 5,343.7 7,940.1 4,063.5 7,911.1 6,130.5
-248.5 -2,321.2 -2,323.9 -679.8 1,341.1 -1,276.2 -272.7 -721.0 -302.8 -572.9
-379.4 -610.3 2,272.0 -4,532.6 1,586.9 4,619.9 -4,379.3 2,176.2 -56.2 -3,744.7
149.6 326.1 261.2 140.5 93.8 41.2 208.5 52.3 -96.6 24.4
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -11,218.1 -7,966.2
985.0 673.2 -668.8 -964.6 -270.1 -1,291.0 -1,169.8 -278.0 -20.2 1,478.2
2007
I II IIIP
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
December 2009
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
Errors and omissions
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2007 2008
104.8 109.7
103.5 109.9
105.7 109.6
104.2 108.6
102.3 111.1
101.5 112.5
89.8 109.5
105.5 143.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 -
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 -
2007 2008
2.5 4.7
2.0 6.2
2.9 3.7
2.4 4.2
1.4 8.6
1.0 10.8
-2.1 21.8
4.5 36.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.0 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2007 2008
24,216 24,347
23,433 23,577
4,014 3,963
17,679 17,906
3.2 3.2
15,970 16,206
8,620 9,007
5,172 5,079
2,178 2,121
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931
2007 2008
1.0 0.5
1.2 0.6
-1.0 -1.3
2.2 1.3
-
2.7 1.5
5.1 4.5
0.6 -1.8
-1.2 -2.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: Statistics Korea
64
December 2009
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2007 2008
48,543.7 52,272.8
312,832.3 307,273.6
1,197,094.8 1,367,713.4
1,603,516.0 1,794,841.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,864,111.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,388.6 1,897,923.7 1,912,745.6 1,925,341.0 1,939,962.4 1,956,088.3 1,972,156.3 1,990,248.2
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
16.5 7.7
-5.2 -1.8
11.2 14.3
10.2 11.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
66
December 2009
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2007 2008
938.2 1,257.5
929.2 1,102.6
833.3 1,393.9
789.8 1,076.6
1,381.3 1,776.2
1,272.7 1,606.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
0.9 34.0
-2.8 18.7
6.6 67.3
-3.9 36.3
-13.0 28.6
6.1 26.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67