Vol. 32 | No. 1
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets
24
9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4
Stock market Exchange rate Bond market Money supply & money market
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices and international commodity prices
30
11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market
34
12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
38
Policy Issues Labor union law revised
40
Economic News Briefing
43
Statistical Appendices
49
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview The Korean economy continued an upward trend as real economic indicators such as production, investment and exports stayed in a recovery phase, while financial markets remained stable. Mining and manufacturing production in November rose 1.4 percent month-on-month and 17.8 percent year-on-year. Service output fell 1.2 percent month-on-month, affected by the H1N1 flu pandemic. On a year-on-year basis, however, the index rose 3.3 percent. Consumer goods sales slightly declined month-on-month by 0.9 percent in November due to drops in semi-durable and non-durable goods sales, while the indicator accelerated a yearon-year rise from 9.8 to 10.0 percent, backed by a low base effect and growing durable goods sales. Facilities investment increased in November by 7.0 percent month-on-month and 10.3 percent year-on-year, helped by recovering machinery investment. Construction completed, thanks to the private sector posting a year-on-year rise in nine months, grew both month-onmonth and year-on-year by 1.2 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. Exports in December jumped 33.7 percent year-on-year, positively affected by a rise in major exports including liquid crystal devices and a low base effect. Imports soared 24.0 percent year-on-year, as imports of raw materials and capital goods rose and the low base lifted the index. The total number of workers hired shed 10,000 year-on-year in November, as hiring in the agriculture, forestry & fishery significantly dropped. The unemployment rate slightly increased month-on-month from 3.2 to 3.3 percent. Consumer prices in December remained in the 2 percent range, despite rising prices of agriculture, livestock & fishery products, of which the shipments declined due to a cold wave. In December, financial markets continued to be stable, as worries over Dubai World’s possible default eased, a Korea’s consortium won a contract to export nuclear facilities to the United Arab Emirate (UAE), and the stock market rallied reflecting expectations over an economic recovery, while the interest rate reversed to a slight increase. To sum up, although the Korean economy passed the critical stage and has continued to improve, the recovery does not seem to be firmly entrenched, as the private sector is not strong enough to drive consumption, investment and employment, and external uncertainties including oil prices are still lingering. The Korean government, to secure economic recovery, will keep pursuing expansionary fiscal policies and spend budgets as planned, and at the same time it will continue to create jobs and support the working class. On the other hand, the government will step up its efforts to reform the economy through corporate restructuring and nurture growth potential, in order to found a basis for a future economic take-off. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy is showing a gradual recovery as production and exports improved in advanced countries. However, potential threats to global economic stability including sluggish employment still remain. Also, concerns grew over sovereign debt risks as Standard & Poor’s revised its credit outlook for Spain to negative from stable on December 9, 2009 and Fitch cut Greece's credit rating to BBB+ from A- on December 8.
US
The US revised down annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth in the third quarter from 2.8 to 2.2 percent, as the level of inventory declined and investment in non-housing construction decelerated. In November, production and consumption continued upward trends, as industrial production increased 0.8 percent month-on-month, and retail sales 1.3 percent. Sales of existing homes in November jumped 7.4 percent from the previous month, backed by the tax credit, while new home sales fell 11.3 percent. In November, non-farm payrolls declined at a slightly slower pace, while the unemployment rate hovered over the 10-percent range, showing the sluggish labor market. The Federal Reserve announced in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on December 17, 2009 that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.0 to 0.25 percent, along with the plan to complete the purchase of US$1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about US $175 billion of agency debt by the first quarter of 2010. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditure - Corporate fixed investment
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Nov
0.4
-0.7
1.5
-2.7
-5.4
-6.4
-0.7
2.2
-
-0.2
-0.6
0.1
-3.5
-3.1
0.6
-0.9
2.8
-
1.6
1.9
1.4
-6.1
-19.5
-39.2
-9.6
-5.9
-
-22.9
-28.2
-15.8
-15.9
-23.2
-38.2
-23.3
18.9
-
Industrial production
-1.8
0.1
-1.2
-2.3
-3.4
-5.2
-2.7
1.5
0.8
Retail sales
-0.7
-0.5
0.4
-1.5
-6.7
-1.2
-0.3
1.6
1.3
New home sales
-37.4
-14.8
-9.6
-9.8
-15.0
-13.5
9.9
9.4
-11.3
New non-farm payroll employment (q-o-q, thousand)2
-257
-113
-153
-208
-553
-691
-428
-199
-11
3.9
4.2
4.3
5.2
1.5
-0.2
-0.9
-1.6
1.8
- Construction investment for housing
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce
4
January 2010
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
Investment and consumption in China continued to improve in November, with industrial production surging and exports declining at a much slower pace. The consumer price index turned positive and home prices had accelerated a rise since June 2009, fanning concerns over a potential asset bubble. Home prices (y-o-y, %) -1.1 (Apr 2009)
-0.6 (May)
0.2 (Jun)
1.0 (Jul)
2.0 (Aug)
2.8 (Sep)
3.9 (Oct)
5.7 (Nov)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
9.0
10.6
10.1
9.0
6.8
6.1
7.9
8.9
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
26.1
25.9
26.8
27.6
26.1
28.6
33.6
33.3
33.1
32.1
Retail sales
21.6
20.6
22.2
23.2
20.6
15.0
15.0
15.4
16.2
15.8
Industrial production
12.9
16.4
15.9
13.0
6.4
5.1
9.1
12.4
16.1
19.2
Exports
17.2
21.4
22.4
22.9
4.1
-19.7
-23.5
-20.7
-13.8
-1.2
Consumer prices
5.9
8.0
7.8
5.3
2.5
-0.6
-1.5
-1.3
-0.5
0.6
Producer prices
6.9
6.9
8.4
9.7
2.5
-4.6
-7.2
-7.7
-5.8
-2.1
Real GDP
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan revised down annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth in the third quarter to 0.3 percent, but automobile sales rose in overseas markets, helping exports and industrial production continue an upward march. The Cabinet Office unveiled on December 9, 2009 its new economic stimulus package of 7.2 trillion yen (US$81 billion), which included employment promotion, while deflation took its course as consumer prices declined for the eighth straight month. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
2008 Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Real GDP
-0.7
1.4
-2.1
-1.0
-2.7
Industrial and mining production
-3.4
0.3
-1.5
-3.3
-17.7
Retail sales (y-o-y, %) Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-3.1
0.7
0.3
-
-
-17.2
14.6
5.9
0.5
2.6
Oct
Nov
0.3
1.8
0.2
0.8
-1.5
-3.9
-0.9
-3.4
-1.0
-1.0
-3.5
5.9
1.8
3.2
-23.1
-46.9
-38.5
-34.4
-23.2
-6.3
1.4
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.0
-0.1
-1.0
-2.2
-2.5
-1.9
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
Eurozone’s exports declined at a slower pace, whereas the unemployment rate in October hit 9.8 percent, the highest since 1980, showing the depressed employment market. The EU, at the summit meeting on December 14, announced that the eurozone would maintain economic stimulus policies until a durable economic recovery takes hold, as uncertainties and vulnerabilities still lingered in the economy. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
0.8
0.8
-0.3
-0.4
-1.9
-2.4
-0.2
0.4
-
-
Industrial production
-1.7
0.9
-1.1
-1.8
-7.6
-8.7
-1.2
2.1
-0.6
-
Retail sales
Real GDP
-0.7
0.3
-0.6
-0.5
-0.9
-0.8
-0.3
-0.3
0.1
-
Exports (y-o-y, %)
3.6
6.5
8.0
5.3
-5.0
-20.9
-23.2
-19.3
-16.8
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
3.3
3.3
3.6
3.8
2.3
1.0
0.2
-0.4
-0.1
0.5
Source: Eurostat
6
January 2010
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter increased 1.5 percent quarter-onquarter, or 0.8 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Private consumption
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
20081
Annual
Annual
Q1
5.1
0.9
-
-
20091
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
4.0
2.3
1.4
-3.7
-4.4
-0.8
0.8
1.1
-0.2
0.0
-4.6
0.4
3.6
1.5
3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales in November edged down 0.9 percent month-on-month, but rose 10.0 percent year-on-year, posting an increase for the seventh consecutive month. On a month-on-month basis, durable goods sales was up 4.4 percent for the third straight month, whereas semi-durable and non-durable goods sales fell 1.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales jumped 39.5 percent, thanks to solid automobiles sales backed by tax incentives, while sales of semi-durable and nondurable goods rose 1.3 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
Consumer goods sales
1.0
2.9
1.4
-4.2
-4.9
1.6
3.4
6.6
9.8
10.0
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
-1.3
-0.1
-3.5
0.4
5.0
1.5
1.7
2.9
-0.9
1.9
8.7
0.0
-9.9
-13.6
4.0
9.9
26.1
15.6
39.5
- Durable goods
2
3
-2.0
7.1
-4.9
-19.5
-21.3
18.4
29.7
65.7
36.1
108.4
- Semi-durable goods4
-2.4
-2.1
0.6
-9.9
-0.9
0.3
0.2
2.6
3.6
1.3
- Non-durable goods
0.7
0.3
1.2
-0.4
-1.4
1.0
2.0
0.3
10.0
2.1
Automobiles
5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at department stores rose 5.5 percent, continuing an upward track for nine months in a row, while sales at specialized retailers posted double-digit growth for the second straight month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
2009
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
0.5
3.7
0.2
-5.0
1.4
2.8
6.5
8.8
12.0
5.5
2.2
3.1
-0.2
-1.2
-5.0
-2.9
-3.2
-2.0
5.5
-1.1
-1.7
0.7
-1.0
-8.1
-6.9
2.6
4.5
8.6
10.7
12.5
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
January 2010
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
In December, consumer goods sales is likely to turn positive month-on-month, and continue to rise year-on-year, given improving advanced estimates and consumer sentiment, and a low base effect from the same period in the previous year. Domestic credit card spending increased year-on-year from the previous month’s 18.3 percent to 20.0 percent, posting double-digit growth for the second consecutive month. Sales at department stores grew 12.4 percent year-on-year, up 6.0 percentage points from the previous month, continuing an upward trend. Sales at large discounters grew 3.9 percent year-on-year from the previous month’s decline of 2.8 percent. Domestic sales of Korean cars soared 79.9 percent year-on-year, affected by the release of new cars, demand surge before expiration of the tax break for new car purchases, and a low base effect from the previous year. However, gasoline sales slightly declined. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 7.3 (Jul 2009)
10.9 (Aug)
14.7 (Sep)
9.4 (Oct)
18.3 (Nov)
20.0 (Dec)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 4.0 (Jul 2009)
7.6 (Aug)
8.6 (Sep)
11.4 (Oct)
6.4 (Nov)
12.4 (Dec)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) -6.0 (Jul 2009)
-1.5 (Aug)
-6.0 (Sep)
4.5 (Oct)
-2.8 (Nov)
3.9 (Dec)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) 10.8 (Jul 2009)
13.0 (Aug)
76.0 (Sep)
23.8 (Oct)
83.6 (Nov)
79.9 (Dec)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 15.8 (Jul 2009)
4.0 (Aug)
-0.3 (Sep)
20.7 (Oct)
-3.0 (Nov)
-4.4 (Dec)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for December data)
Stabilizing financial markets and improving consumer sentiment are also expected to positively affect consumption. Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1.6 (Jul 2009)
2.2 (Aug)
2.2 (Sep)
2.0 (Oct)
2.4 (Nov)
2.8 (Dec)
The won/dollar exchange rate (monthly average) 1,264 (Jul 2009)
1,238 (Aug)
1,219 (Sep)
1,175 (Oct)
1,164 (Nov)
1,166 (Dec)
1,659 (Sep)
1,631 (Oct)
1,583 (Nov)
1,647 (Dec)
KOSPI (monthly average) 1,460 (Jul 2009)
1,579 (Aug)
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) 109 (Jul 2009)
10
January 2010
114 (Aug)
114 (Sep)
117 (Oct)
113 (Nov)
113 (Dec)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter posted a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.4 percent, and a year-on-year loss of 7.4 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Facility investment2 (Seasonally adjusted)3 - Machinery - Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2008
20091
1
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
9.3
-2.0
1.5
1.1
4.3
-14.0
-23.5
-15.9
-7.4
-
-
-0.4
0.4
0.2
-14.2
-11.2
10.1
10.4
9.2
-2.7
-1.2
-0.1
6.5
-15.3
-24.0
-19.6
-15.1
9.6
0.4
12.2
5.1
-3.6
-9.9
-21.8
-3.2
21.8
3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in November rose 10.3 percent year-on-year, as machinery investment, in particular that in semi-conductor equipment, rapidly improved, and transportation equipment investment, in particular automobile investment, continued to increase. Machinery investment increased 7.4 percent year-on-year, the second fastest increase since November 2007 when it rose 7.9 percent, approaching the pre-crisis level. Machinery investment index 109.7 (Sep 2008)
99.2 (Oct)
83.1 (Jan 2009)
90.1 (Aug)
107.8 (Nov)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Facility investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Machinery
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
8.2
-4.3
-13.4
-17.7
-13.4
-10.1
5.0
0.5
10.3
-
-
-9.3
-11.6
6.6
4.2
17.9
-5.6
7.0
7.5
-5.7
-14.5
-21.9
-19.5
-17.2
-6.0
0.6
7.4
11.3
1.5
-9.0
0.4
11.3
19.6
54.4
0.0
21.1
20.6
-5.5
-47.3
-33.8
-14.1
6.5
31.9
3.0
56.6
- Public
-11.4
4.9
-3.5
150.5
30.9
281.3
129.5
-75.7
108.8
- Private
24.5
-6.2
-53.9
-42.9
-18.5
-12.4
25.5
26.9
46.4
1.7
-2.2
-15.6
-18.9
-8.5
1.6
8.3
-3.0
15.1
- Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea
Facility investment in December is projected to stay on an upward track, given growing corporate investment confidence and improving leading indicators such as rising domestic machinery orders and increasing facility investment adjustment pressure.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
January 2010
2010
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
95
100
96
98
103
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter rose 2.7 percent year-onyear, and declined 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
3
- Building construction - Civil engineering works
2008
20091
1
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.4
-2.1
-1.9
-0.3
0.2
-5.6
1.6
3.7
2.7
-
-
-2.5
-0.3
0.1
-3.0
5.2
1.7
-2.0
-0.0
-4.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
-14.3
-11.1
-3.5
-0.4
3.8
1.3
-3.2
-0.7
0.7
5.7
24.9
14.3
7.7
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction completed (current value) in November rose 4.2 percent year-on-year, as construction completed in the private sector improved along with the public sector, for the first time in nine months since February 2009, landing at a 3.4 percent increase year-on-year. Both building construction and civil engineering works climbed by 0.5 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
6.6
4.7
-2.2
4.5
7.0
-0.6
7.7
-5.2
4.2
-
-
-6.2
7.7
2.2
-6.6
10.1
-2.9
1.2
- Public
8.4
6.5
8.7
24.4
32.1
21.7
32.2
4.9
8.1
- Private
4.6
1.7
-9.1
-5.0
-5.2
-11.3
-4.3
-9.6
3.4
23.6
-9.0
-6.5
-16.5
-2.0
9.1
58.4
27.2
77.0
- Public
40.3
9.1
5.0
22.0
186.5
75.6
101.1
89.7
64.6
- Private
16.5
-15.8
-15.3
-38.4
-62.4
-10.7
61.8
16.3
85.6
13.3
-20.1
-41.9
-31.6
-32.7
-4.6
31.4
-29.5
14.1
Construction completed (Seasonally adjusted)
Construction orders
Building permit area
2
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea & The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment is projected to slightly improve in December, given a rise in leading indicators such as construction orders and building permit area. Construction orders in the private sector, for the first time since December 2007, advanced for three consecutive months from a year earlier.
14
January 2010
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in December soared 33.7 percent year-on-year to US$36.24 billion. The large increase in exports is mainly attributed to a low base effect from the previous year and the global economy recently recovering. Daily average exports in working-day-adjustedterms also rose from the previous month. By export category, liquid crystal devices (up 177.7%) and semiconductors (up 125.5%) surged, and by regional category, exports to China (up 94.0%) and the EU (up 41.7%) greatly improved. (US$ billion) 2008
Exports (y-o-y, %)
2009
Annual
Dec
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Dec
422.01
27.12
74.41
90.32
94.77
33.96
34.08
36.24
363.77
13.6
-17.9
-25.2
-21.1
-17.6
-8.5
18.1
33.7
-13.8
1.53
1.13
1.10
1.30
1.32
1.48
1.48
1.51
1.30
435.27
26.58
71.45
73.82
84.79
30.34
29.46
32.94
322.79
(y-o-y, %)
22.0
-21.6
-32.6
-35.7
-31.0
-16.0
2.1
24.0
-25.8
Average daily imports
1.58
1.11
1.06
1.06
1.18
1.32
1.28
1.37
1.16
Average daily exports Imports
Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in December jumped 24.0 percent year-on-year to US$32.94 billion due to a low base effect and improving domestic demand. Average daily imports in working-dayadjusted-terms also increased from the previous month. Imports of capital goods further expanded, while raw material imports switched to an increase, affected by rising oil prices. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) -34.7 (Q1 2009)
-43.0 (Q2)
-39.3 (Q3); -7.0 (Nov)
24.8 (Dec)
-13.7 (Q3); 17.8 (Nov)
29.1 (Dec)
-20.9 (Q3); 15.3 (Nov)
7.4 (Dec)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) -29.1 (Q1 2009)
-23.6 (Q2)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) -29.5 (Q1 2009)
-24.4 (Q2)
The trade balance in December posted a surplus of US$3.30 billion, staying in the black for eleven straight months since February 2009. The annual trade balance of 2009 recorded a surplus of US$40.98 billion, the largest surplus ever. (US$ billion) 2008
Trade Balance Source: Korea Customs Service
16
January 2010
2009
Annual
Dec
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Dec
-13.27
0.32
2.99
16.50
9.98
3.62
4.62
3.30
40.98
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 1.4 percent month-on-month in November, thanks to an export increase and a low base effect from the previous month due to Chuseok holidays, while year-on-year it surged 17.8 percent By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 56.3%), chemical products (up 28.0%), and automobiles (up 14.9%) posted an increase year-on-year, whereas beverages (down 9.6%) and metalworks (down 2.5%) decreased. Shipments soared 2.0 percent month-on-month, or 15.3 percent year-on-year, thanks to brisk shipments of semiconductors and parts, while the level of inventory decelerated a drop from the previous month’s 16.2 percent to 14.5 percent. By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 47.1%) and automobiles (up 18.6%) rose year-on-year, while those of refined petroleum products (down 2.4%) and transportation equipment (down 2.9%) declined. The inventories of automobiles (down 30.9%), primary metals (down 21.4%), and chemical products (down 21.1%) went down. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector registered 77.3 percent, staying at the same level as the previous month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Q3
Nov
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
-
-1.9
-10.1
11.4
7.2
5.7
-3.8
1.4
(y-o-y)
3.0
5.6
-13.8
-6.2
4.2
11.0
0.2
17.8
- Manufacturing
3.0
5.6
-14.5
-6.6
4.4
11.5
0.4
18.6
Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2009
Heavy chemical industry Light industry Shipment - Domestic demand
4.1
6.8
-15.0
-6.2
5.6
12.4
1.9
21.5
-2.2
0.0
-12.2
-8.8
-1.8
6.5
-7.1
4.4
2.4
5.3
-13.2
-5.8
2.1
8.9
-0.6
15.3
-0.7
1.7
-14.0
-6.6
3.1
12.4
-1.0
13.5
- Exports
7.1
10.3
-11.9
-4.7
0.8
4.3
-0.1
17.7
Inventory3
7.3
17.3
16.1
-16.7
-13.9
-13.9
-16.2
-14.5
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
77.2
78.3
68.4
73.7
78.9
80.2
77.3
77.3
5.2
5.3
3.4
1.9
2.8
3.2
3.4
3.5
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry Source: Statistics Korea
3. End-period
Mining and manufacturing production in December is projected to continue an upward track, as advanced estimates, in particular electricity sales and exports, showed an improvement. Industrial electricity sales (thousand GWh) 18.3 (Sep 2009)
17.7 (Oct)
18.1 (Nov)
19.0 (Dec)1
34.1 (Sep)
34.0 (Oct)
1. Estimate
Exports (US$ billion) 32.0 (Jul 2009)
18
January 2010
28.9 (Aug)
34.1 (Nov)
36.2 (Dec)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in November 2009 decreased 1.2 percent from the previous month partly due to the H1N1 flu pandemic. From a year earlier, however, service output expanded 3.3 percent. By business category, real estate & renting services (up 15.9%), healthcare & social welfare services (up 11.6%) and wholesale & retail sales (up 5.4%) led the year-on-year increase in the service sector. Meanwhile, entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 6.9%) and professional, scientific & technical activities (down 3.9%) declined from a year earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2008
2009
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
Service activity index
100
3.4
3.2
-0.4
-0.4
1.6
2.2
4.4
1.3
3.3
- Wholesale & retail
22.0
1.4
3.6
-4.6
-4.0
-2.2
0.3
3.3
1.9
5.4
- Transportation services
9.0
4.3
4.3
-3.2
-10.8
-9.5
-4.1
0.4
-2.5
2.6
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
0.7
1.7
-3.0
-2.4
-0.3
-2.2
0.0
-2.7
-2.0
- Information & communication services
8.4
3.5
3.4
-0.2
-1.9
0.9
1.5
3.2
1.5
1.4
15.3
9.7
9.6
4.5
6.6
9.8
8.7
9.4
4.0
4.5
- Real estate & renting
6.3
-2.1
-8.4
-7.5
-3.1
1.5
9.3
9.7
14.3
15.9
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
2.0
1.8
0.9
-1.9
3.2
0.1
3.0
-2.9
-3.9
- Financial & insurance services
- Business services
2.9
4.6
3.2
0.1
-4.8
-6.6
-1.1
-1.2
-0.5
-2.4
10.8
1.8
-0.5
2.3
3.7
6.9
-2.6
-0.3
-7.0
0.2
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
6.3
6.1
6.5
8.6
8.1
9.8
11.4
11.4
11.6
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.2
1.7
4.3
1.5
0.9
0.1
4.7
-6.6
-6.9
- Membership organizations
3.8
0.1
-1.4
-1.0
-3.4
-5.0
-1.7
1.9
-0.8
-3.5
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
5.8
3.9
4.0
0.5
8.8
5.5
9.6
-3.5
0.3
- Educational services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Amid robust advanced indicators including credit card spending, service activity in December 2009 is expected to reverse its course to post a month-on-month increase, mainly affected by the subdued H1N1 flu pandemic and rising stock prices.
Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 10.9 (Aug 2009)
14.7 (Sep)
9.4 (Oct)
18.3 (Nov)
1. Estimate
KOSPI (monthly average) 1,630 (Oct 2009)
20
January 2010
1,583 (Nov)
1,647 (Dec)
20 (Dec)1
l es
l&
tate
ncia
tion
& re
ranc
e se
ns
& Bus bus iness f ines acil s su ity m ppo ana rt se gem rvic ent es & Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea serv lthcare ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente serv rtainm ices ent , cu ltur al & spo Me rts m othe bersh r pe ip o rson rgan al s izati ervi ons Sew ces , re pair reco erage, & very was & re te m med ana iatio gem n ac ent, tivit mate ies rials
es
atio
rvic
unic
s
omm
rant
tail
insu
&c
stau
ion
& re
ntin g Pro tech fession nica al, s l se cien rvic tifi c es
Rea
Fina
rtat
ale
& re
rma
els
Info
Hot
spo
oles
Tran
Wh
ex
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
November 2009 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in November 2009 declined by 10,000 from a year earlier as hiring in the agriculture, forestry & fishery dropped significantly. Employment in the manufacturing sector continued to decrease mainly due to sluggish exports. The pace of decline in the sector, however, decelerated to 43,000. Hiring in the construction sector stayed on a downward track with a 115,000 decrease as employment in the private sector remained weak. Employment in the service sector soared by 294,000 driven by the government’s job creation policies. Meanwhile, the number of employed in the agriculture, forestry & fishery plunged 151,000 as fall cultivation declined while the temperature dropped. By status of workers, non-wage workers including self-employed workers plummeted by 424,000 from a year earlier. In the mean time, wage workers rose by 413,000 led by an increase of 492,000 in regular workers and 186,000 in temporary workers, although the number of daily workers shrank by 264,000. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008
2009
Annual
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Employment growth
145
78
209
173
141
54
-146
-134
-1
10
-10
- Manufacturing
-52
-86
-18
-34
-52
-103
-163
-151
-143
-87
-43
- Construction
-37
-32
-22
-46
-40
-41
-43
-113
-103
-147
-115
- Services
263
150
307
300
262
187
47
155
269
269
294
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-37
42
-63
-54
-38
8
14
-25
-25
-29
-151
- Wage workers
236
159
312
289
208
137
73
175
356
376
413
Regular workers
386
318
435
448
347
316
318
313
386
490
492
Temporary workers
-93
-103
-98
-96
-83
-94
-136
-5
125
136
186
Daily workers
-57
-56
-25
-63
-56
-85
-108
-133
-155
-250
-264
-92
-81
-102
-115
-66
-83
-220
-309
-357
-367
-424
-79
-83
-79
-67
-76
-95
-197
-286
-276
-266
-307
- Non-wage workers Self-employed workers Source: Statistics Korea
The employment rate stood at 59.1 percent, down 0.8 percentage points compared to the same month of the previous year. The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points yearon-year to 3.3 percent, while that of youths aged 15 to 29 was up 1.5 percentage points from a year earlier to 7.6 percent. (Change from same period in previous year, thousand) 2008 Annual Unemployment rate (%) Employment rate (%) Source: Statistics Korea
22
January 2010
Nov
Q1
2009 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
3.2
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.2
3.3
59.5
59.9
58.5
60.3
59.9
59.4
57.4
59.3
59.1
59.3
59.1
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
8-3
Unemployment rate and number of unemployed Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in December 2009 was up amid global market rallies and expectations over an economic recovery. Investor sentiment in the market was boosted as Korea’s GDP in the third quarter expanded 3.2 percent from the previous quarter posting the highest quarter-on-quarter growth in 90 months while the IMF upgraded its forecasts for Korea’s economic growth for 2009 and 2010 to 0.25 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, from initial estimates of minus 1 percent and 3.6 percent. Despite liquidity problems of Kumho Asiana Group, the Korean stock market rallies continued until the end of the year, mainly affected by a Korean consortium’s gaining of the nuclear-plant contract with the United Arab Emirate (UAE). Foreign investors led domestic stock market rallies by continuing their net-buying of Korean shares since July, although the market was in a wait-and-see mode toward the end of the year. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI Nov 2009
Dec 2009
1,555.6
1,682.8
818.5
Average daily trade value Foreign stock ownership
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ Change
Nov 2009
Dec 2009
Change1
127.2 (8.2%)
464.3
513.1
48.8 (10.5%)
887.3
68.8 (8.4%)
75.4
85.2
9.8 (13.0%)
4.0
4.5
0.5 (12.5%)
1.6
2.0
0.4 (25.0%)
32.7
32.7
0.0 (0.0%)
7.3
7.4
0.1 (5.8%)
1
1. Change from the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in December rose 1.7 won from 1,162.9 won at the end of November to wrap up the month at 1,164.5 won. The exchange rate dropped to 1,153 won, the lowest this year, on December 4 as did on November 18, as fear eased over Dubai’s debt default crisis. It, thereafter, turned to an increase as investors’ appetite for safe assets grew as downgrades of Greece’s sovereign credit rating fueled concerns over credit risks in the eurozone. The won/yen exchange rate fell to the 1,200 won range with worries about deflation in Japan. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
Dec
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,162.8
1,164.5
8.2
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,348.8
1,264.5
10.5
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
24
January 2010
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
25
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields were up in December due to less demand for safe assets with global stock market rallies and expectations over an economic rebound. Despite the Bank of Korea’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged, the yields accelerated the growth pace, as foreign investors made a net selling of KTB futures amid an improvement of economic indicators such as industrial activities. (End-period) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Oct
Nov
2009 Dec
Call rate (1 day)
3.76
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.01
2.01
0
CD (91 days)
4.09
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.79
2.79
2.88
9
Change1
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
5.08
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
4.10
4.44
34
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.52
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.58
5.21
5.56
35
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.36
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.94
4.61
4.98
37
1. Basis point changes in December 2009 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in October expanded 9.9 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. The yearon-year M2 growth was higher than the previous month’s 9.5 percent, as financial institutions are likely to have hiked their deposit rates to attract matured deposits. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2007
2009
2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Oct
Q1
Q2
Aug
Sep
Oct
Oct1
-1.8
-12.4
-0.1
2.1
5.0
4.2
10.8
17.6
18.5
19.5
19.6
371.5
11.2
14.3
13.3
15.3
14.7
13.8
14.2
11.5
10.1
9.5
9.5
9.9
1,543.4
10.2
11.9
11.6
12.8
12.1
11.2
11.9
8.8
7.3
7.6
7.3
Annual
Annual
M1+2
-5.2
M2 Lf3
Lower7 1,965.34
1. Balance at end October 2009, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Balance at end September 2009, trillion won
Bank deposits in November increased driven by time deposits which expanded at a faster pace with the inflow of massive corporate funds fueled by deposit rate hikes. Asset management company (AMC) deposits shifted to an increase as financial institutions’ short-term idle money flowed into the deposits while money withdrawals from equity funds declined. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Nov
Annual
Nov
Sep
Oct
Nov
Nov1
Bank deposits
59.6
11.2
104.3
9.4
16.5
-6.8
1.5
1,015.8
AMC deposits
61.8
14.3
63.0
2.8
-18.3
-7.3
4.4
342.9
1. Balance at end November 2009, trillion won
26
January 2010
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
27
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account recorded a US$4.28 billion surplus in November. The goods account surplus exceeded US$5 billion for three consecutive months since September 2009 as the trade balance continued to post a surplus. The surplus expanded to US$5.84 billion from US$5.68 billion a month earlier. The service account deficit increased to US$1.66 billion from the previous month’s US$1.31 billion, as deficits swelled in the travel balance and fee payments such as payments for patent rights. The income account surplus reduced to US$390 million from US$560 million of the previous month as dividend and interest payments increased. The current transfer account deficit was up to US$290 million from the previous month’s US$160 million with increased outward remittance. (US$ billion) 2008
Current account
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov Jan-Nov
-5.78
-4.87
-0.41
-8.33
7.83
8.62
13.10
10.40
4.76
4.28
41.15
5.67
-1.38
5.53
-3.23
4.75
8.31
17.58
14.70
5.68
5.84
52.11
- Service balance
-16.67
-4.94
-4.46
-5.84
-1.44
-1.93
-4.17
-5.33
-1.31
-1.66
-14.40
- Income balance
5.90
1.98
-0.52
1.50
2.94
0.92
0.29
1.69
0.56
0.39
3.86
- Current transfers
-0.67
-0.53
-0.96
-0.76
1.58
1.31
-0.60
-0.66
-0.16
-0.29
-0.41
- Goods balance
Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account in November posted a net inflow of US$1.54 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -1.44 (Q1 2009)
8.68 (Q2)
14.40 (Q3); 1.58 (Oct)
1.54 (Nov)
The direct investment account expanded the net outflow to register US$2.84 billion from the previous month’s deficit of US$510 million as outbound foreign direct investment (FDI) by locals increased while inward FDI by foreigners decreased. The portfolio investment account decreased the net inflow to record US$3.39 billion from US$6.13 billion a month earlier as foreign investment in the Korean bond market declined. The financial derivatives account turned to a net inflow of US$850 million from a net outflow of US$570 million in the previous month as payments related to overseas financial derivative transactions decreased. The other investment account reversed its course to post a surplus of US$190 million after recording a deficit of US$3.48 billion a month earlier as financial institutions collected shortterm foreign currency-denominated lending from overseas. The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$2 billion in December as the trade balance posted a surplus of US$3.30 billion.
28
January 2010
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in December 2009 increased 0.4 percent month-on-month while rising 2.8 percent year-on-year.
Consumer price inflation 2008
2009
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month-on-Month (%)
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.4
Year-on-Year (%)
4.1
3.7
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.8
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
5.6
5.2
5.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.2
(m-o-m)
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
3.0
2.8
3.3
3.1
3.0
1.8
0.5
0.4
1.3
1.7
1.5
2.3
3.3
Source: Statistics Korea
The overall price index was up 0.4 percent month-on-month as prices for agricultural, livestock and fishery products gained strength and a price adjustment increased personal service charges in the year-end. Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 2.8 percent from the previous month due to decreased supply affected by cold wave and higher storage cost. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in December 2009 (m-o-m, %) Rice (-1.9), radish (0.7), Chinese cabbage (-6.4), cucumber (50.3), lettuce (36.3), mandarin orange (-11.1), Korean beef (1.5), pork (3.1), mackerel (5.6), scabbard fish (4.1), Alaska pollack (3.1)
Despite stabilized international oil prices, prices of oil products increased 0.2 percent from a month earlier affected by LPG price increases in December. Prices of oil products in December 2009 (m-o-m, %) Gasoline (-0.5), diesel (-0.7), kerosene (-0.3), LPG for automobiles (5.4), LPG for kitchen use (4.4)
Public utility charges remained at a similar level to the previous month as an increase in local public utility charges was offset by falling medical service fees followed by expanded medical insurance coverage. Due to higher expenses for dining-out affected by beef price increases and strong demand for yearend parties on top of a peak price tariff introduced in the tourism and lodging industry during the high season, personal service charges rose 0.3 percent month-on-month.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p) Year-on-Year (%) Contribution (%p)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.4
2.8
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.35
0.23
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.09
2.8
3.4
4.6
11.9
1.2
1.8
2.0
2.80
0.28
1.42
0.63
0.11
0.29
0.71
Source: Statistics Korea
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 2.2 percent year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.3 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
30
January 2010
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11.2. International oil and commodity prices Before rising to the high-US$70s affected by strong demand for heating oil in the month-end, international oil prices in December tumbled to remain around US$70 a barrel as the US dollar gained strength. The monthly average oil prices turned to a fall for the first time in three months. (US$/barrel, period average) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dubai crude
68.4
94.3
61.9
69.4
65.0
71.4
67.7
73.2
77.7
75.5
Brent crude
72.8
97.5
61.7
68.6
64.6
72.9
67.5
72.8
76.7
74.5
WTI crude
72.3
99.9
61.9
69.7
64.2
71.1
69.4
75.8
78.1
74.5
Source: KOREAPDS
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14)
Despite the won’s deppreciation, domestic prices of oil products inched down month-onmonth as weak international oil product prices by mid-December were reflected with the time lag. (Won/liter, period average) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Gasoline prices
1,526
1,692
1,601
1,607
1,639
1,670
1,681
1,627
1,655
1,646
Diesel prices
1,273
1,614
1,397
1,389
1,428
1,447
1,453
1,409
1,452
1,441
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of non-ferrous metals in December continued to rise while international prices of grain rose due to China’s increased demand. Prices of non-ferrous metals increased with expectations of economic recovery in 2010 rather than fundamental factors including demand and supply conditions. Aluminum prices grew at double digit with the spreading recognition that it remained relatively undervalued compared to other non-ferrous metals. Corn and soybean prices rose due to deteriorating weather conditions and increasing demand from China while the wheat price increase is limited by favorable supply and demand dynamics. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in December 2009 (m-o-m, %) Corn (3.0), wheat (0.2), soybean (2.4), bronze (4.8), aluminum (11.7), nickel (0.6), zinc (8.6), lead (1.2), tin (4.9)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2,400
2,536
2,079
2,117
2,082
2,159
2,147
2,197
2,243
2,294
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
32
January 2010
Source: KOREAPDS
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
33
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In December 2009, nationwide apartment sales prices were up 0.2 percent month-on-month, decelerating the pace of increase for three straight months. Compared with the end of 2008, apartment prices rose 1.6 percent. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area were down for the first time since March 2009 as property transactions in major areas such as Gangnam (down 0.1%), Seocho (down 0.1%), and Gwacheon (down 0.7%) continued to contract. On the other hand, apartment sales prices in other cities, especially Busan (up 0.8%) and Daejeon (up 0.7%), increased relatively significantly.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Dec Annual Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Oct Nov Dec Dec71 Dec141 Dec211 Dec281
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
Seoul
24.1
Gangnam2
27.6
Gangbuk
2.3
-0.5
1.6
-1.2
0.4
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.03
0.03
0.03
3.6
3.2
-1.6
2.6
-1.3
1.0
2.6
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0 -0.01 -0.01
0.00
0.01
0.5
-1.9
-2.0
3.9
-1.1
1.7
3.1
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0 -0.01 -0.01
0.00
0.04
19.0
8.3
9.4
-1.3
0.9
-1.7
0.2
2.0
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.0 -0.01
0.00 -0.02
24.6
4.0
2.9
-1.4
0.7
-1.8
0.5
1.8
0.2
0.3
0.0 -0.1 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01
5 metropolitan cities
2.1 -0.6
1.0
-0.3
2.8
-0.7
0.3
1.3
1.9
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.19
0.08
0.09
0.10
Other cities
3.0
2.3
-0.3
2.2
-0.3
0.3
0.8
1.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.08
0.12
0.08
0.05
3
Seoul metropolitan area
1. Weekly trends
0.3
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
0.05
0.00
Source: Kookmin Bank
The rental prices have slowed down the growth pace for the third month in a row with the beginning of the winter low season, by rising 0.3 percent from the previous month. From the end of 2008, rental prices were up 4.5 percent. The rental prices in Gangnam (up 0.8%), Seocho (up 1.2%), and Songpa (up 0.7%) remained strong.
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Dec Annual Q1
Nationwide
7.6
Seoul Gangnam
1.9
Q2
Q3
Q4
Oct Nov Dec Dec71 Dec141 Dec211 Dec281
0.8
-1.4
4.5 -1.3
0.9
2.8
2.0
0.9
0.8
0.3
0.09
0.09
0.08
0.08
11.5
2.2 -1.8
-2.7
8.1 -0.8
1.8
4.7
2.3
1.1
0.8
0.4
0.14
0.08
0.12
0.01 0.20
11.3
0.5 -3.6
-0.9 10.4 -0.1
2.4
5.1
2.7
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.25
0.10
0.18
Gangbuk3
11.8
4.6
0.5
-2.4
5.4 -1.6
1.0
4.2
1.9
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.00
0.07
0.04 -0.01
Seoul metropolitan area
11.7
2
2.1 -0.4
-2.2
5.6 -1.8
1.4
4.1
1.8
1.0
0.7
0.1
0.02
0.04
0.04
0.06
5 metropolitan cities
3.0
1.1
1.6
-0.4
3.9 -0.9
0.4
1.9
2.6
0.8
1.1
0.7
0.21
0.14
0.15
0.13
Other cities
4.1
2.2
2.6
-0.5
2.9 -0.4
0.5
1.0
1.8
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.13
0.17
0.11
0.09
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in November decreased 6.6 percent from 87,329 a month earlier to post 81,589. The transactions were up 52.1 percent from a year earlier and down 8.3 percent compared with the monthly average recorded in the same month for the past 3 years.
Apartment sales transactions 2006
(Monthly average, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Nov Annual Nov Annual Nov
Nationwide
94
152
Source: Korea Land Corporation
34
January 2010
84
80
74
54
2009 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
57
49
60
79
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
76
91
81
90
87
82
72
81
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
35
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in November rose 0.30 percent, the same level as the previous month, continuing the moderate recovery pace since April 2009. The accumulated increase rate from January to November was 0.61 percent, with land prices standing below the record high in October 2008 by 3.5 percent. In the Seoul metropolitan area, Seoul continued to slow the upward pace while Incheon and Gyeonggi province continued to post high price increases rising by 0.55 percent and 0.47 percent, respectively. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan (m-o-m, %) 0.41 (Sep 2009)
0.37 (Oct)
0.36 (Nov)
In addition, price increases in other cities, especially Daegu (up 0.35%) and North Gyeongsang province (up 0.33%), accelerated the growth pace. Land price increases in other cities (m-o-m, %) 0.09 (Aug 2009)
0.12 (Sep)
0.16 (Oct)
0.21 (Nov)
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Nationwide
3.88
0.96
0.79
0.91
1.15
-0.31
1.23
1.46
1.18
-4.08
-1.20
0.35
0.88
0.30
0.30
Seoul
5.88
1.38
1.07
1.40
1.90
-1.00
1.83
2.17
1.59
-6.34
-1.38
0.68
1.30
0.30
0.24
Gyeonggi
4.22
1.07
0.89
1.05
1.14
-0.26
1.28
1.57
1.28
-4.28
-1.62
0.37
1.13
0.42
0.47
Incheon
4.86
1.13
1.37
1.36
1.67
2.01
-3.57
-1.39
0.53
1.16
0.51
0.55
1.24
1.28
1.12
Source: Korea Land Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in November expanded 39.0 percent or 58,000 land lots from a year earlier to 207,000 land lots. In terms of gross area, land transactions were up 39.9 percent. Nationwide land transactions excluding Daegu (down 26.1%) increased year-on-year. Particularly, land transactions in Daejeon (up 98.0%), Gangwon province (up 74.2%), and Busan (up 69.4%) soared.
Land sales transactions
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)
2007
2008
Annual Annual Sep
2009
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
208
208
173
191
148
162
134
164
207
207
192
215
222
206
226
212
207
Seoul
33
26
20
23
14
13
13
15
20
24
22
27
26
25
28
25
19
Gyeonggi
49
45
37
36
28
31
26
34
41
48
45
49
50
48
56
52
48
Incheon
13
13
11
10
8
8
7
7
9
10
9
10
11
10
13
14
11
Nationwide
Source: Korea Land Corporation
36
January 2010
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The coincident composite index was up 0.3 percent in November from the previous month while the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index remained unchanged. Three out of all components of the index including the volume of imports decreased. The value of construction completed, the mining & manufacturing production index, the domestic shipment index, and the number of non-farm payroll employment were up. Components of coincident composite index in November 2009 (m-o-m) Value of construction completed (2.5%), mining & manufacturing production index (1.0%), domestic shipment index (0.7%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.1%), service activity index (0.0%), manufacturing operation ratio index (-0.1%), wholesale & retail sales index (-0.7%), volume of imports (-0.9%)
The year-on-year leading composite index, which foresees the future economic conditions, went up 1.3 percentage points month-on-month in November. The 12-month smoothed change in leading composite index increased 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, running on an upward track since January. The value of received construction orders, the value of machinery orders received, the indicator of inventory cycle, the ratio of job openings to job seekers, the volume of capital goods imports, and the composite stock price index were up. Components of the leading composite index in November 2009 (m-o-m) Value of received construction orders (27.4%), value of machinery orders received (12.7%), indicator of inventory cycle (5.7%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (3.4%p), volume of capital goods imports (0.5%), composite stock price index (0.3%), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.3%), net terms of trade index (0.1%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.0%p), consumer expectations index (-1.0%p)
2009 Jan
Feb
Aug
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
-1.9
0.0
0.9
0.6
0.4
0.3
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
92.4
92.0
96.7
96.9
96.8
96.8
(m-o-m, p)
-2.2
-0.4
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.3
1.1
1.0
0.7
1.1
1.3
-4.0
-2.9
9.1
10.1
11.3
12.5
0.1
1.1
1.3
1.0
1.2
1.2
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) 12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%) (m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
38
January 2010
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
39
Policy Issues Labor Union Law Revised
The proposed revision of the labor union law was passed by the National Assembly, which limits wage payment for full time unionists and allows multiple unions at one workplace.
Background Banning corporations from paying wages to full time union members and allowing multiple unions at one workplace have been controversial for 13 years, although both of them need to be adopted to help improve Korea’s labor-management relations. The revised labor union law regulates details concerning ban on paying full time union members and multiple unions at one workplace, which aim to guarantee as much freedom as possible to companies and unions, while at the same time be in line with the principles of labor-management relations.
Main contents of the revision 1. Banning corporations from paying full time union members Although full time union members are allowed when employers agree or collective agreements approve, they are required to be paid not by companies but by unions. Corporations paying full time labor union members will be punished for not complying with the law. However, the revised labor union law provides some flexibility to the wage payment system for labor unionists. The revision allows unionists to be paid by corporations through the time-off system, in which employees receive time off payment when they are engaged in union activities considered relevant to the common interests of the union and management, such as collective bargaining and job site safety, or when the activities are considered essential for operating the union. The ceiling of time off for union activities is set by the deliberation committee, based on the number of union members in a worksite.
40
January 2010
The deliberation committee is composed of 10 members, five appointed by the business circle and labor community, and five by the government. The existing time off ceilings are examined every three years to decide whether to keep the current limits or revise them. The deliberation committee is required to decide on the first time off ceiling by April 30, 2010, otherwise the five members appointed by the government will set the ceiling. 10 million won or less penalty will be imposed on strikes which demand wage payment to full time unionists beyond the time off ceiling, even if wage demand is not a major issue of a strike, but one of the agenda of a strike. Existing agreements will be in force until they expire, although the revised law has taken effect since January 1, 2010.
2. Multiple unions in one workplace Multiple unions will be allowed in one workplace from July 1, 2010, but they are required to use a single negotiation channel when they bargain with employers. The revised law regulates ways and procedures to set up a single body representing multiple unions, as the representative body, if set up in a fair and reasonable way, will increase negotiation efficiency and minimize chances of strife between employers and employees. The procedure to set up a representative body starts when one of the multiple unions calls for a negotiation with the employer. Each union is entitled to call for a negotiation before the existing collective agreement expires, and employers are required to announce the call to give all unions in the company an equal opportunity to be a representative body. The negotiation union is chosen by unions in the company, or if the unions fail to select their representative body, the union with more than half of the total corporate union members represents the other unions. In the process, the unions are allowed to unite to be a majority union, or become part of a larger union. If the unions fail to have a representative body with more than half of the total corporate union members, they need to create a new negotiation body. The unions of which the number of members exceeds 10 percent of the participants in the negotiation union selecting process can qualify for being a part of the new representative body. If this fails again, the Labor Relations Commission will set up a negotiation body, reflecting the number of members in each union. The negotiation body represents all union members in a company or workplace, without being affected by industrial unions or craft unions. However, the revised law allows separate negotiation bodies when there are major differences in working conditions, employment types, and negotiation styles. The Labor Relations Commission decides on whether separate negotiation bodies are necessary, and separate bodies are set up with the same procedures as those for setting up general negotiation bodies. Employers as well as unions are allowed to request a separate negotiation body.
Economic Bulletin
41
The negotiation union is responsible for fairly representing the other unions: It is required to listen to minority unions before or during a negotiation. Employers are also responsible for taking part in a negotiation without any bias. If the negotiation union fails to be a fair representative body, the union claiming to be treated unfairly reports the case to the Labor Relations Commission within three months from the incident. The commission then orders removal of unfairness if any unequal treatment is detected. Terms regulating walkouts and time off union activities are added to the revision: Staging a strike requires consent from more than half of the total union members, but individual unions are not entitled to deciding on a strike. Only a representative union decides on strikes. Union activities taken as time off work are set through a negotiation between a representative union and an employer, or by the Labor Relations Commission.
42
January 2010
Economic News Briefing
Government to frontload 70% of 2010 estimated expenditure Korea will spend some 70 percent of the 2010 estimated expenditure during the first half of the year in an effort to accelerate the economic recovery, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said on January 4, 2010. The spending plan covering both the general and special accounts is as follows:
2010 budget plan
(Trillion won, %)
Budget Spending rate (accumulated)
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
255.3
109.8
68.6
44.8
32.1
43.0
69.8
87.4
100.0
Some 178.4 trillion won of the government’s planned annual expenditure of 255.3 trillion won will be spent during the period, from which a total of 164 trillion won will be spent to create jobs, stabilize low-income households, and support on-going SOC projects. The spending plan was released along with the budget spending guidelines, the purposes of which are: (i) to facilitate early spending; (ii) to help reduce energy consumption in public institutions by 10 percent; and (iii) to enhance transparency and efficiency in budget spending.
Economic Bulletin
43
Asia to launch Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) in March Korea, China, Japan, and 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN+3) completed the signing of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralizaton (CMIM) Agreement on December 24, 2009 to launch the pact on March 24, 2010. The CMIM will strengthen the region’s capacity to safeguard against increased risks and challenges in the global economy. The core objectives of the CMIM are (i) to address balance-of-payments and short-term liquidity difficulties in the region and (ii) to supplement the existing international financial arrangements. The initial amount of the multilateral currency swap fund will be US$120 billion. The CMIM will provide financial support through currency swap transactions to the CMIM participants facing balance-of-payments and short-term liquidity difficulties. Participating countries are entitled to swap its own currency into US dollars in accordance to their contributions.
CMIM contributions and maximum amount of available funds Financial contribution
(End-period, %) Maximum amount of available funds
US$ (billion)
(%)
US$ (billion)
1
38.40
32
19.20
Japan
38.40
32
19.20
Korea
19.20
16
19.20
ASEAN
24.00
20
63.10
China
1. Hong Kong is included
Korea to further develop Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP) The Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP), a comprehensive policy consultation program launched by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance to share Korea’s development experience with other countries, will be further advanced in 2010 to provide more systematic assistance to developing countries. With Korea’s accession to the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) last November ahead of chairing the G20 Summit this year, Korea plans to improve its official development assistance (ODA) system and establish an original Korean assistance model as a part of its contribution to the international society. In this regard, the Korean government will upgrade KSP in a more systematized way in 2010 while expanding aid volume to developing countries.
44
January 2010
The 2010 KSP will be directed in ways as follows: (i) 20 cases of Korea’s economic development experience to be selected and developed into programs; (ii) consultants and consulting firms specializing in KSP to be introduced; (iii) the link between KSP and untied/tied aid to be strengthened to fully support developing countries; (iv) joint consultation with international organizations to be accompanied by Korea’s official financial aid; and (v) comprehensive consultation to be provided to 4 countries in 2010 from only one country in 2009.
Microcredit program starts from December 2009 The “Miso Credit Foundation”, a microcredit lending program in Korea to support low income households, opened its first branch on December 15, 2009 as Samsung has set up the first office of Microcredit foundation in Suwon. Other non-financial companies including Hyundai-Kia Automotive, SK, LG, POSCO and Lotte have also launched their microcredit foundations in December 2009. In the banking sector, Kookmin, Woori, Shinhan, Hana and Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK) have embarked their foundations. The Miso Credit Foundation plans to open some 50 branches by May 2010 and gradually expand branches up to 300 through 2010. In addition, 11 regional units of Miso Credit Foundation are to kick off by February 2010.
Current situation of Miso Credit Foundation Names of foundation
Dates of establishment
Samsung Miso Credit Foundation
December 15, 2009
Kookmin Miso Credit Foundation Woori Miso Credit Foundation
December 17, 2009
Shinhan Miso Credit Foundation Hyundai-Kia Automotive Miso Credit Foundation LG Miso Credit Foundation
December 18, 2009 December 21, 2009
Hana Miso Credit Foundation SK Miso Credit Foundation
December 23, 2009
Posco Miso Credit Foundation
December 24, 2009
Lotte Miso Credit Foundation
December 28, 2009
IBK Miso Credit Foundation
December 30, 2009
Economic Bulletin
45
Korean group wins landmark UAE nuclear power deal A Korean consortium, on December 27, 2009, won a landmark deal valued at about US$20.4 billion to build four nuclear reactors for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in a high-profile contest with a French consortium led by Areva, an industry leader, and a US-Japanese consortium including General Electric and Hitachi. The victory for the Korea Electric Power (Kepco) led consortium marks the first international deal for Korea, which built its first commercial nuclear plant in 1987, making the nation the world’s sixth exporter of the nuclear reactors after the US, France, Canada, Russia and Japan. The deal is expected to secure stepping stone for the country’s advance into the fast-growing international market for nuclear power plants. The Kepco led group also includes Hyundai Engineering and Construction, Samsung C&T, Doosan Heavy Industries and Construction as well as Westinghouse, a US-based unit of Japan’s Toshiba. According to the deal, the Korean consortium will build four 1,400megawatt nuclear power units in the UAE that will be completed from 2017 to 2020. The Korean group expects to earn another US$20 billion by jointly operating the reactors for 60 years, and hopes to build more plants in the UAE beyond 2020 to meet future demand. The Ministry of Knowledge Economy attributed the Korean consortium’s winning of the UAE deal to its cost-effectiveness, high safety standards, technological know-how and relatively short period of construction. President Lee Myung-bak’s aggressive diplomacy also contributed to the success of Korea’s nuclear power plant export, which was highlighted in his surprise trip to Abu Dhabi on December 26 to support the Korean firms. At a summit with President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahayan in Abu Dhabi on December 27, 2009, President Lee said the contract will deepen relations between Korea and the UAE in the economic, cultural, security and diplomatic sectors. The two leaders also agreed to continue developing the relationship between the countries into a strategic partnership to help ensure their joint development in the future.
Korea’s trade surplus hits all-time high in 2009 Korea’s trade balance posted a record high US$40.98 billion surplus in 2009 as exports fell 13.8 percent year-on-year to US$363.77 billion while imports declined 25.8 percent from a year earlier to US$322.79 billion. Amid the substantial decrease in global trade volume, Korea’s exports performed relatively well, making the nation the ninth largest exporter in 2009. Year-on-year export growth in December, in particular, jumped 33.7 percent from the previous month’s 18.1 percent, confirming the upward trend in exports.
46
January 2010
By export item, ships and LCD devices led the healthy export performance by increasing 4.4 percent and 28.5 percent, respectively. By export destination, exports to emerging markets such as China (down 7.5%) and the Middle East (down 11.7%) declined at a smaller pace compared with those to developed countries including the US (down 18.9%) and Japan (down 23.7%). The Korean government forecasts that exports this year will increase around 9 percent from the previous year to post US$410 billion while imports will climb about 21 percent to register US$390 billion, resulting in the trade surplus of around US$20 billion.
Economic Bulletin
47
48
December 2009
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
49
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
7.2 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2
-2.2 -5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.5
8.7 5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 3.1
8.1 0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 1.6
Construction
Facilities
7.1 4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.7
6.2 8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.1
7.3 -1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -2
2002
I II III IV
6.6 7.0 6.8 8.1
2.3 -2.4 -1.1 -5.5
5.1 7.2 9.3 13.1
10.3 9.1 7.7 5.7
7.5 7.9 3.2 9.6
11.4 7.2 -1.5 9.4
2.6 7.7 9.8 9.1
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008P
I II III IV
5.5 4.3 3.1 -3.4
7.4 4.4 4.2 6.4
9.1 8.4 5.6 -9.1
3.9 2.6 2.0 -1.9
-0.5 0.6 1.8 -7.3
-1.9 -0.3 0.2 -5.6
1.5 1.1 4.3 -14.0
2009P
I II III
-4.2 -2.2 0.9
1.5 -1.2 3.1
-13.6 -7.3 1.6
-2.0 0.9 1.7
-8.1 -2.7 -0.8
1.6 3.7 2.7
-23.5 -15.9 -7.4
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
50
January 2010
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
51
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
115.9 119.4
6.9 3.0
115.3 118.1
7.2 2.4
117.2 125.7
5.6 7.3
112.2 116.1
6.8 3.5
2007
I II III IV
109.6 114.9 112.9 126.2
4.1 6.3 6.1 10.9
109.6 115.2 111.9 124.7
5.2 7.1 5.6 10.5
114.0 114.5 112.7 117.2
5.0 4.1 2.9 5.6
106.7 111.2 112.6 118.1
5.5 6.5 7.4 7.4
2008
I II III IV
121.6 125.1 119.2 111.9
10.9 8.9 5.6 -11.3
119.6 122.8 117.8 112.1
9.1 6.6 5.3 -10.1
123.7 133.1 132.2 125.7
8.5 16.2 17.3 7.3
113.8 116.5 116.2 117.6
6.7 4.8 3.2 -0.4
2009
I II III
102.7 117.4 124.2
-15.5 -6.2 4.2
102.0 115.7 120.3
-14.7 -5.8 2.1
116.5 110.9 113.7
-5.8 -16.7 -14.0
113.3 118.4 118.6
-0.4 1.6 2.1
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
112.8 100.2 115.7 113.8 115.8 115.1 113.4 113.7 111.6 128.6 127.6 122.5
8.7 -0.2 3.5 6.4 5.8 6.7 13.6 9.0 -3.0 16.1 7.7 9.4
110.3 101.7 116.8 114.6 116.0 114.9 112.6 112.5 110.6 126.3 126.1 121.6
8.3 2.0 5.1 7.5 6.6 6.9 14.3 7.3 -3.5 15.6 7.8 8.6
118.6 115.6 114.0 111.8 114.2 114.5 115.6 115.6 112.7 115.0 114.9 117.2
10.8 8.4 5.0 4.0 3.7 4.1 2.8 5.5 2.9 4.9 4.3 5.6
105.9 102.8 111.4 109.4 112.1 112.1 112.1 112.9 112.8 115.3 115.6 123.4
4.3 6.7 5.5 5.4 6.2 8.1 10.0 7.9 4.5 9.3 6.7 6.2
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.0 110.9 127.8 126.1 126.1 123.1 123.1 115.8 118.6 126.2 110.0 99.6
11.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 8.9 7.0 8.6 1.8 6.3 -1.9 -13.8 -18.7
121.7 109.7 127.3 124.5 123.5 120.3 121.5 114.5 117.3 124.0 109.5 102.8
10.3 7.9 9.0 8.6 6.5 4.7 7.9 1.8 6.1 -1.8 -13.2 -15.5
123.9 124.4 123.7 124.8 128.9 133.1 132.4 132.3 132.2 135.1 133.4 125.7
4.5 7.6 8.5 11.6 12.9 16.2 14.5 14.4 17.3 17.5 16.1 7.3
114.2 109.3 118.0 116.3 117.7 115.5 116.8 115.1 116.8 116.9 113.9 121.9
7.8 6.3 5.9 6.3 5.0 3.0 4.2 1.9 3.5 1.4 -1.5 -1.2
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
93.9 99.8 114.4 115.8 114.7 121.7 124.0 117.0 131.7 126.5 129.6
-25.5 -10.0 -10.5 -8.2 -9.0 -1.1 0.7 1.0 11.0 0.2 17.8
93.2 99.5 113.2 114.5 112.8 119.8 119.9 113.4 127.7 123.2 126.2
-23.4 -9.3 -11.1 -8.0 -8.7 -0.4 -1.3 -1.0 8.9 -0.6 15.3
124.4 118.1 116.5 112.6 111.4 110.9 112.7 113.5 113.8 113.2 114.1
0.4 -5.1 -5.8 -9.8 -13.6 -16.7 -14.9 -14.2 -13.9 -16.2 -14.5
113.0 109.6 117.2 118.5 118.1 118.7 117.9 116.2 121.9 118.4 117.7
-1.1 0.3 -0.7 1.9 0.3 2.8 0.9 1.0 4.4 1.3 3.3
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
52
January 2010
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
109.7 115.4
5.4 5.2
100.4 96.8
0.1 -3.6
80.1 77.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2007 2008 2007
I II III IV
107.5 108.3 110.2 112.6
4.5 4.5 6.0 6.4
97.2 102.6 96.2 105.5
-2.1 0.7 -1.7 3.4
78.9 79.9 80.1 81.3
2008
I II III IV
114.0 115.3 116.0 116.5
6.0 6.5 5.3 3.5
98.9 102.7 95.1 90.6
1.7 0.1 -1.1 -14.1
80.8 80.4 78.3 69.3
2009
I II III
116.9 117.5 119.3
2.5 1.9 2.8
80.7 94.3 97.5
-18.4 -8.2 2.6
65.8 73.7 78.9
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.2 107.5 107.7 107.9 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.2 110.8 112.3 112.5 113.0
4.4 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2 4.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.5
99.8 88.2 103.6 101.5 103.9 102.5 98.3 96.6 93.8 109.4 107.4 99.7
2.6 -7.2 -1.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 7.3 1.4 -12.3 9.6 0.1 0.9
78.5 79.5 78.8 78.8 80.5 80.4 80.6 81.1 78.6 81.9 81.0 80.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 114.3 114.7 115.5 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.8
6.2 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.4
102.9 89.2 104.6 104.2 103.0 100.8 99.4 91.9 94.1 103.8 89.1 78.9
3.1 1.1 1.0 2.7 -0.9 -1.7 1.1 -4.9 0.3 -5.1 -17.0 -20.9
81.3 80.2 80.9 81.0 80.0 80.2 79.2 78.4 77.3 77.3 68.4 62.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.2 117.2 118.2 118.8 119.2 119.9 120.2 120.4
2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.5
72.9 78.8 90.4 93.1 92.2 97.5 98.4 90.9 103.3 99.0 100.5
-29.2 -11.7 -13.6 -10.7 -10.5 -3.3 -1.0 -1.1 9.8 -4.6 12.8
61.4 66.9 69.2 71.5 72.9 76.6 78.7 77.7 80.2 77.3 77.3
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
53
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Consumer goods sales index
2007 2008
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
109.3 110.4
5.1 1.0
124.7 127.1
9.6 1.9
108.1 105.5
3.9 -2.4
108.5 109.3
5.2 0.7
2007
I II III IV
106.6 108.3 107.1 115.1
5.2 4.3 7.2 3.6
119.6 124.6 126.0 128.6
16.6 12.5 10.2 0.8
99.9 110.1 94.1 128.5
5.4 1.5 3.6 5.4
106.6 107.6 110.5 109.4
4.3 3.5 8.4 5.0
2008
I Il III IV
111.3 111.4 108.6 110.3
4.4 2.9 1.4 -4.2
131.0 135.5 126.0 115.9
9.5 8.7 0.0 -9.9
103.7 107.8 94.7 115.8
3.8 -2.1 0.6 -9.9
108.6 107.9 111.8 109.0
1.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4
2009
I II III
105.9 113.2 112.3
-4.9 1.6 3.4
113.2 140.9 138.5
-13.6 4.0 10.1
102.8 108.1 94.9
-0.9 0.3 0.2
107.1 109.0 114.0
-1.4 1.0 2.0
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 103.6 110.1 106.6 111.3 107.0 105.0 103.6 112.6 113.4 113.9 118.1
0.4 10.3 5.6 3.8 5.6 3.6 9.1 5.8 6.6 6.8 3.9 0.5
118.7 111.2 128.8 120.5 126.5 126.8 130.5 127.0 120.5 124.8 129.1 131.8
22.0 11.5 16.2 13.9 14.3 9.4 20.7 11.4 -0.3 11.7 4.0 -10.3
98.0 91.5 110.2 111.5 116.2 102.5 94.4 80.0 107.8 123.9 130.0 131.7
4.6 5.7 5.8 -0.1 1.8 2.7 3.2 2.8 4.6 8.2 4.3 3.9
104.4 107.4 108.1 105.0 110.3 107.4 105.3 109.6 116.7 109.3 106.6 112.2
-4.9 16.0 3.7 3.3 5.0 1.9 8.7 5.7 10.9 4.1 5.4 5.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.2 115.1 113.0 114.8 106.3 109.3 105.9 110.5 109.5 108.6 112.8
5.2 3.5 4.5 6.0 3.1 -0.7 4.1 2.2 -1.9 -3.4 -4.7 -4.5
129.5 118.7 144.8 140.6 137.6 128.2 141.1 121.5 115.4 124.4 109.0 114.4
9.1 6.7 12.4 16.7 8.8 1.1 8.1 -4.3 -4.2 -0.3 -15.6 -13.2
104.5 97.3 109.2 109.2 112.5 101.8 98.0 87.1 99.1 112.5 121.2 113.8
6.6 6.3 -0.9 -2.1 -3.2 -0.7 3.8 8.9 -8.1 -9.2 -6.8 -13.6
108.1 107.9 109.8 108.1 111.7 103.9 105.7 111.4 118.2 105.8 107.0 114.3
3.5 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.3 -3.3 0.4 1.6 1.3 -3.2 0.4 1.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
108.0 100.7 109.1 108.6 116.6 114.3 111.3 107.9 117.8 120.2 119.5
-3.3 -6.1 -5.2 -3.9 1.6 7.5 1.8 1.9 6.6 9.8 10.0
102.5 114.3 122.9 123.7 142.8 156.3 141.3 128.8 145.5 143.8 152.1
-20.8 -3.7 -15.1 -12.0 3.8 21.9 0.1 6.0 26.1 15.6 39.5
103.2 96.8 108.4 110.0 113.5 100.7 95.8 87.3 101.7 116.5 122.8
-1.2 -0.5 -0.7 0.7 0.9 -1.1 -2.2 0.2 2.6 3.6 1.3
113.6 98.8 108.8 107.0 112.5 107.5 110.9 112.6 118.6 116.4 109.2
5.1 -8.4 -0.9 -1.0 0.7 3.5 4.9 1.1 0.3 10.0 2.1
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
January 2010
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2007 2008
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
113.0 114.6
6.0 1.4
124.5 126.6
12.8 1.7
108.4 109.8
3.2 1.3
-
2007
I II III IV
111.1 111.0 111.3 118.7
8.4 7.8 2.4 5.9
119.8 122.5 122.9 132.8
17.6 15.0 9.3 9.9
107.6 106.4 106.7 113.0
4.8 4.7 -0.5 4.1
-
2008
I II III IV
117.3 115.7 113.5 111.8
5.6 4.2 2.0 -5.8
132.5 136.4 123.0 114.5
10.6 11.3 0.1 -13.8
111.3 107.5 109.7 110.7
3.4 1.0 2.8 -2.0
-
2009
I II III
105.9 113.1 118.4
-9.7 -2.2 4.3
112.8 137.9 137.6
-14.9 1.1 11.9
103.2 103.2 110.7
-7.3 -4.0 0.9
-
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.9 104.3 114.1 111.6 113.0 108.5 109.7 112.9 111.3 121.6 118.0 116.4
11.1 8.0 6.2 10.1 8.8 4.7 10.0 6.0 -7.1 11.8 3.1 2.9
118.0 113.7 127.8 119.9 125.3 122.4 124.3 125.0 119.5 136.4 131.8 130.2
21.9 14.8 16.2 19.5 18.2 8.0 23.6 13.9 -5.8 16.9 6.7 6.5
113.6 100.5 108.6 108.3 108.0 102.9 103.9 108.1 108.0 115.7 112.4 110.9
7.2 5.0 2.2 6.3 4.8 3.2 4.5 2.8 -7.6 9.6 1.4 1.3
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.2 106.4 120.3 119.8 115.8 111.6 117.6 111.3 111.5 119.5 107.0 108.8
9.0 2.0 5.4 7.3 2.5 2.9 7.2 -1.4 0.2 -1.7 -9.3 -6.5
131.5 122.4 143.5 144.0 136.9 128.2 134.2 118.8 116.0 127.8 111.0 104.6
11.4 7.7 12.3 20.1 9.3 4.7 8.0 -5.0 -2.9 -6.3 -15.8 -19.7
122.7 100.0 111.1 110.1 107.4 105.0 111.0 108.3 109.7 116.2 105.5 110.5
8.0 -0.5 2.3 1.7 -0.6 2.0 6.8 0.2 1.6 0.4 -6.1 -0.4
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.7 102.3 109.8 110.5 111.5 117.4 117.6 109.9 127.8 119.8P 118.5P -
-15.6 -3.9 -8.7 -7.8 -3.7 5.2 0.0 -1.3 14.6 0.3P 10.7P -
99.0 115.2 124.3 119.0 138.6 156.0 143.7 124.6 144.5 138.6P 145.7P -
-24.7 -5.9 -13.4 -17.4 1.2 21.7 7.1 4.9 24.6 8.5P 31.3P -
108.4 97.2 104.0 107.1 100.6 102.0 107.1 104.0 121.0 121.3P 107.6P -
-11.7 -2.8 -6.4 -2.7 -6.3 -2.9 -3.5 -4.0 10.3 -3.4P 2.0P -
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2007 2008
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
27,279 23,798
2,199 2,309
25,080 21,488
15,635 12,809
118.1 113.0
114.5 114.5
Manufacturing
2008
I ll III IV
7,863 6,088 5,474 4,372
371 535 354 1,049
7,492 5,552 5,121 3,324
4,936 3,140 2,947 1,786
112.8 121.2 113.7 104.3
111.7 120.6 113.9 111.9
2009
I ll III
5,205 5,227 5,833
931 701 1,348
4,274 4,527 4,484
2,083 2,330 2,456
92.8 104.9 102.2
98.1 111.2 106.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,110 2,339 2,414 2,043 1,863 2,182 2,372 1,688 1,414 1,711 1,259 1,402
148 68 155 95 89 352 179 87 88 399 207 444
3,661 2,271 2,259 1,947 1,775 1,830 2,193 1,602 1,326 1,312 1,053 959
2,032 1,571 1,332 1,137 913 1,090 1,239 965 743 754 555 478
107.8 104.2 126.4 122.6 122.5 118.4 118.9 113.3 108.9 105.8 103.6 103.5
106.3 102.9 125.9 119.6 122.1 120.0 119.6 108.3 113.8 112.5 108.2 115.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
1,636 1,727 1,842 1,534 1,466 2,228 2,544 1,423 1,865 1,762 1,972
232 519 181 93 98 510 1,074 73 201 97 430
741 562 780 690 700 940 795 691 970 939 972
84.7 92.4 101.3 99.4 102.7 112.6 96.5 95.7 114.3 106.3 114.3
84.3 97.5 112.5 109.5 102.9 121.2 106.4 97.0 115.4 108.0 114.6
2007 2008
20.6 -12.8
-11.4 5.0
29.9 -18.1
8.2 -4.3
3.3 0.0
1,404 1,209 1,661 1,441 1,368 1,718 1,470 1,350 1,663 1,665 1,542 Y-o-Y change (%) 24.5 -14.3
2008
I ll III IV
22.7 -0.5 -15.2 -47.3
9.7 84.7 -26.9 -3.5
23.5 -4.7 -14.3 -53.9
44.6 -7.4 -23.7 -64.0
-3.8 -2.7 3.0 -13.4
1.3 0.6 6.5 -7.4
2009
I ll III
-33.8 -14.1 6.5
150.5 30.9 281.3
-42.9 -18.5 -12.4
-57.8 -25.8 -16.7
-17.7 -13.4 -9.9
-12.2 -7.8 -6.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
51.2 2.6 16.7 5.0 -6.4 0.0 17.0 -9.0 -45.0 -46.4 -52.6 -42.8
67.3 -54.7 55.3 3.2 -2.4 229.6 5.3 -32.2 -52.8 349.0 -5 -43.2
50.5 6.6 14.7 5.1 -6.6 -11.8 18.1 -7.3 -44.4 -57.7 -56.8 -42.7
78.7 26 29.5 5.9 -13.6 -13.7 12.0 -1.4 -58.2 -67.5 -66.9 -50.8
-2.2 -8.0 -1.5 -4.2 -1.1 -2.7 7.0 -0.9 2.9 -6.2 -14.9 -18.4
1.8 0.2 1.6 4.4 -0.8 -1.7 7.1 2.6 10.0 -1.0 -10.1 -10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
-47.4 -26.2 -23.7 -24.9 -21.3 2.1 7.3 -15.7 31.9 3.0 56.6
56.4 660.1 16.7 -2.9 10.5 45.1 498.8 -15.7 129.5 -75.7 108.8
-52.6 -46.8 -26.5 26 22.9 -6.2 -32.9 -15.7 25.5 26.9 46.4
-63.6 -64.2 -41.4 -39.3 -23.4 -13.8 -35.9 -28.4 30.6 24.5 75.2
-21.4 -11.3 -19.9 -18.9 -16.2 -4.9 -18.8 -15.5 5.0 0.5 10.3
-20.7 -5.2 -10.6 -8.4 -15.7 1.0 -11.0 -10.4 1.4 -4.0 5.9
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
January 2010
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
25,098 26,728
54,559 55,509
112,502 102,321
28,695 31,320
77,554 65,294
Public
82,939 86,806
2007 2008
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completed (total)
2008
I ll III IV
18,283 22,158 22,317 24,047
5,279 6,568 6,503 8,383
12,142 14,367 14,712 14,288
21,048 25,995 17,061 38,217
7,398 6,056 4,691 13,175
13,077 19,171 10,795 22,252
2009
I ll III
19,115 23,716 22,181
6,562 8,678 7,915
11,536 13,623 13,052
17,567 25,485 18,620
9,024 17,350 8,237
8,055 7,201 9,640
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,074 5,473 6,736 7,026 7,321 7,811 7,168 7,312 7,837 7,741 7,779 8,528
1,716 1,519 2,040 1,967 2,224 2,376 2,025 2,139 2,339 2,498 2,572 3,312
4,072 3,698 4,372 4,636 4,731 5,001 4,789 4,822 5,101 4,819 4,743 4,726
6,275 6,152 8,621 7,880 8,578 9,537 5,372 6,169 5,519 8,187 8,151 21,879
1,907 2,048 3,442 1,743 2,499 1,814 1,392 1,520 1,779 2,451 3,088 7,636
4,166 3,887 5,024 5,933 5,884 7,353 3,452 4,432 2,911 4,827 4,722 12,703
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
6,048 6,129 6,937 7,451 7,271 8,995 7,005 6,734 8,442 7,339 8,109
2,149 2,036 2,377 2,643 2,611 3,423 2,380 2,443 3,092 2,620 2,781
5,333 4,880 7,354 7,249 6,988 11,247 5,527 4,352 8,741 10,415 14,425
2,552 2,695 3,778 5,610 4,295 7,445 2,947 1,713 3,576 4,650 5,082
2,514 2,079 3,462 1,260 2,573 3,369 2,362 2,569 4,709 5,616 8,766
6.6 4.7
8.4 6.5
23.6 -9.0
40.3 9.1
16.5 -15.8
2007 2008
3,608 3,782 4,147 4,415 4,232 4,977 4,249 3,923 4,879 4,355 4,904 Y-o-Y change (%) 4.6 1.7
2008
I ll III IV
5.6 6.1 10.6 -2.2
6.8 3.5 6.6 8.7
3.0 4.6 10.5 -9.1
-3.7 -6.1 -22.7 -6.5
17.4 14.6 2.9 5.0
-14.1 -4.7 -32.3 -15.3
2009
I ll III
4.5 7.0 -0.6
24.4 32.1 21.7
-5.0 -5.2 -11.3
-16.5 -2.0 9.1
22.0 186.5 75.6
-38.4 -62.4 -10.7
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
10.5 3.1 3.6 4.2 7.5 6.6 8.7 8.3 14.8 5.1 -1.3 -8.6
16.5 -1.0 5.5 2.4 5.0 3.1 3.2 9.5 6.9 20.4 5.7 3.4
5.6 2.6 1.0 2.6 5.9 5.3 9.2 5.9 16.7 -3.3 -7.1 -16.2
-9.3 -7.0 3.6 -0.5 16.4 -23.0 -13.2 -8.1 -39.8 -23.7 -39.3 30.7
3.6 2.1 40.1 -5.6 50.7 2.0 -9.2 9.3 8.8 -25.8 -16.6 37.8
-15.0 -14.1 -13.4 3.4 16.0 -21.0 -8.4 -10.7 -59.6 -32.1 -46.7 23.4
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
-0.4 12.0 3.0 6.0 -0.7 15.2 -2.3 -7.9 7.7 -5.2 4.2
25.2 34.0 16.5 34.3 17.4 44.1 17.5 14.2 32.2 4.9 8.1
-11.4 2.3 -5.1 -4.8 -10.5 -0.5 -11.3 -18.6 -4.3 -9.6 3.4
-15.0 -20.7 -14.7 -8.0 -18.5 17.9 2.9 -29.5 58.4 27.2 77.0
33.8 31.6 9.7 221.8 71.9 310.3 111.7 12.7 101.1 89.7 64.6
-39.7 -46.5 -31.1 -78.8 -56.3 -54.2 -31.6 -42.0 61.8 16.3 85.6
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
104.2 104.3 104.2 104.3 104.6 105.0 105.2 105.7 106.4 107.4 108.1 108.7
6.9 6.4 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.4
104.0 104.1 104.5 104.6 105.2 105.5 105.2 105.6 106.4 108.3 109.1 109.4
100.4 100.1 100.1 99.8 99.9 99.8 99.1 99.1 99.4 100.7 101.1 101.0
95.4 90.5 111.5 99.8 94.1 94.2 79.1 85.9 99.4 99.4 103.7 100.4
102.6 102.4 118.9 112.7 110.7 98.6 94.2 93.4 107.7 103.5 104.3 101.4
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.2 109.9 110.3 111.0 111.3 112.3 113.2 114.1 114.9 115.8 116.7 117.0
5.5 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.8 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9 7.6
109.4 109.8 110.2 110.7 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.7 113.8 114.4 115.0 116.0
100.6 100.6 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.9 101.4 101.6 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.9
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.6 115.8 115.2 114.9 114.8 114.4 113.7 113.5 113.4 112.7 111.3 110.4
6.6 5.1 3.9 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.9 -1.8 -3.3 -4.3
116.8 116.9 117.1 117.1 117.3 117.3 117.6 117.7 117.9 117.6 115.9 113.0
102.2 101.9 101.7 101.2 101.0 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.8 99.2 97.3 94.6
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.7 111.9 113.0 115.0 117.4 120.5 122.2 123.4 124.3 125.7P 127.3P -
-4.0 -2.9 -1.9 0.1 2.6 5.8 7.8 9.1 10.1 11.3P 12.5P -
110.9 110.9 111.9 113.6 114.5 116.9 118.3 119.4 120.1 120.6P 121.0P -
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
-
103.1
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2010 1
-
-
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
58
January 2010
-
92.4 92.0 92.5 93.5 93.8 95.4 96.2 96.7 96.9 96.8P 96.8P -
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2007 2008r
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
5,876.0 -5,776.3
28,168.0 5,669.1
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
371,489.1 422,007.3
356,845.7 435,274.7
-19,767.6 -16,671.5
1,002.7 5,900.0
-3,527.1 -673.9
2007
I II III IV
-1,013.3 -1,303.6 4,344.1 3,848.8
5,721.8 5,811.9 8,881.9 7,752.4
84,703.5 92,984.5 90,529.1 103,272.0
82,261.7 87,961.9 86,058.8 100,563.3
-5,391.3 -4,415.9 -5,256.6 -4,703.8
-618.1 -1,662.4 1,795.9 1,487.3
-725.7 -1,037.2 -1,077.1 -687.1
2008r
I II III IV
-4,866.4 -411.5 -8,329.7 7,831.3
-1,375.4 5,526.4 -3,230.5 4,748.6
99,444.5 114,492.0 115,000.1 93,070.6
106,052.9 114,792.8 122,901.0 91,528.0
-4,936.9 -4,460.5 -5,837.8 -1,436.3
1,979.7 -521.1 1,503.3 2,938.1
-533.8 -956.3 -764.7 1,580.9
2009P
I II III
8,618.2 13,097.4 10,395.5
8,308.8 17,576.0 14,702.5
74,405.3 90,318.7 94,769.4
71,445.5 73,820.7 84,786.1
-1,926.2 -4,167.7 -5,334.5
922.3 292.7 1,690.7
1,313.3 -603.6 -663.2
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
439.4 430.4 -1,883.1 -2,558.6 193.8 1,061.2 1,773.7 589.1 1,981.3 3,010.5 1,674.4 -836.1
1,505.6 2,140.0 2,076.2 1,233.1 1,476.9 3,101.9 3,250.9 2,386.2 3,244.8 4,361.0 2,723.8 667.6
28,092.6 26,225.1 30,385.8 29,944.5 31,039.9 32,000.1 30,207.4 30,998.1 29,323.5 34,433.8 35,807.9 33,030.3
27,560.1 25,406.2 29,295.5 29,596.9 29,856.9 28,508.1 29,223.2 29,642.1 27,193.6 32,741.2 33,926.1 33,895.9
-1,409.6 -2,356.4 -1,625.3 -1,371.3 -1,396.5 -1,648.1 -1,675.3 -2,050.6 -1,530.7 -1,527.0 -1,410.8 -1,766.0
610.1 867.2 -2,095.4 -2,203.8 504.0 37.4 557.1 610.7 628.1 454.1 474.8 558.4
-266.7 -220.4 -238.6 -216.6 -390.6 -430.0 -359.0 -357.2 -360.9 -277.6 -113.4 -296.1
2008r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,343.6 -2,372.0 -150.8 -1,578.8 -566.7 1,734.0 -2,433.9 -4,676.2 -1,219.6 4,644.8 2,408.2 778.3
-935.1 -524.2 83.9 1,733.1 367.0 3,426.3 487.2 -2,926.8 -790.9 2,102.2 1,230.4 1,416.0
32,274.6 31,178.2 35,991.8 37,850.2 39,383.2 37,258.6 40,961.2 36,610.6 37,428.3 37,111.1 28,841.6 27,117.9
36,318.0 32,624.3 37,110.6 38,260.4 38,704.5 37,827.9 42,952.5 40,420.4 39,528.1 36,098.8 28,853.6 26,575.6
-1,957.3 -2,205.7 -773.9 -1,072.9 -1,215.3 -2,172.3 -2,719.6 -1,962.9 -1,155.3 180.5 -70.0 -1,546.8
840.3 792.3 347.1 -1,914.2 563.5 829.6 350.0 427.4 725.9 1,590.6 757.4 590.1
-291.5 -434.4 192.1 -324.8 -281.9 -349.6 -551.5 -213.9 0.7 771.5 490.4 319.0
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-1,612.3 3,585.8 6,644.7 4,274.1 3,442.6 5,380.7 4,419.5 1,922.1 4,053.9 4,757.3 4,277.7
-1,762.2 3,100.1 6,970.9 6,105.2 4,872.3 6,598.5 6,114.5 3,319.5 5,268.5 5,675.1 5,842.3
21,130.1 25,391.9 27,883.2 30,324.9 27,805.5 32,188.3 31,895.4 28,948.0 33,925.9 33,957.8 34,074.7
24,937.3 22,597.7 23,910.4 24,843.7 23,346.5 25,630.5 27,639.2 27,397.8 29,749.1 30,336.2 29,456.7
-710.5 -540.4 -675.3 -1,117.3 -1,524.4 -1,526.0 -1,898.0 -1,803.4 -1,633.1 -1,312.6 -1,662.7
596.4 510.5 -184.6 -803.1 389.6 706.2 511.1 617.7 561.9 559.4 390.0
264.0 515.6 533.7 89.3 -294.9 -398.0 -308.1 -211.7 89.3 -164.6 -291.9
R: Revised P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
59
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2007 2008r
7,128.1 -50,083.6
-13,835.9 -15,632.6
-26,057.8 -2,405.6
5,444.8 -14,769.9
43,964.5 -17,384.8
-2,387.5 109.3
-15,128.4 56,446.0
2,124.0 -586.1
I II III IV
6,364.4 8,948.8 -4,323.2 -3,861.9
-900.4 -2,847.0 -2,605.7 -7,482.8
-12,227.6 -1,055.9 -11,455.8 -1,318.5
1,300.5 1,067.4 1,432.9 1,644.0
19,005.7 12,466.7 8,879.1 3,613.0
-813.8 -682.4 -573.7 -317.6
-3,998.3 -6,250.1 -2,495.8 -2,384.2
-1,352.8 -1,395.2 2,474.8 2,397.2
2008r I ll III IV
1,990.3 -3,160.7 -6,286.4 -42,626.8
-5,781.5 -4,140.0 -3,661.1 -2,050.0
-4,401.5 8,356.7 -9,421.3 3,060.5
-1,249.5 -1,240.7 -3,550.4 -8,729.3
13,533.2 -5,909.9 10,564.1 -35,572.2
-110.4 -226.8 -217.7 664.2
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
-973.9 -2,145.5 1,733.0 800.3
2009P I II III
-1,399.2 8,682.0 14,399.1
-2,045.4 -172.1 -2,137.6
3,532.3 16,740.2 19,914.7
-4,893.6 -614.9 -1,296.5
1,282.5 -7,566.0 -2,258.0
725.0 294.8 176.5
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,886.9
1,798.4 -2,237.6 -907.7
2007
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,180.0 -527.6 4,712.0 4,481.4 4,750.2 -282.8 -552.7 137.3 -3,907.8 -3,753.9 -373.3 265.3
-222.2 -644.0 -34.2 -402.1 -282.8 -2,162.1 -321.9 -1,427.0 -856.8 -4,514.4 -1,723.3 -1,245.1
-1,915.9 -2,366.7 -7,945.0 3,601.6 -12.6 -4,644.9 -7,912.0 -6,531.8 2,988.0 -638.2 -2,473.5 1,793.2
292.8 368.2 639.5 197.7 409.0 460.7 705.2 440.1 287.6 663.4 627.2 353.4
4,381.7 2,318.3 12,305.7 1,325.2 4,871.5 6,270.2 7,203.9 7,864.0 -6,188.8 900.4 3,269.5 -556.9
-356.4 -203.4 -254.0 -240.8 -234.9 -206.7 -227.9 -208.0 -137.8 -165.1 -73.2 -79.3
-2,350.7 -1,134.7 -512.9 -1,878.4 -4,492.9 121.2 -2,421.6 -937.6 863.4 -847.5 -493.8 -1,042.9
-268.7 1,231.9 -2,316.0 -44.6 -451.1 -899.5 1,200.6 211.1 1,063.1 1,590.8 -807.2 1,613.6
2008r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,171.9 202.3 616.1 -835.4 -113.8 -2,211.5 -6,014.3 5,113.2 -5,385.3 -23,462.3 -13,488.5 -5,676.0
-3,002.7 -90.9 -2,687.9 -2,561.0 -683.4 -895.6 -1,465.4 -1,428.7 -767.0 -978.9 -615.2 -455.9
-949.8 -3,144.5 -307.2 4,093.1 9,168.1 -4,904.5 -7,025.3 -343.4 -2,052.6 5,004.0 -2,524.0 580.5
-130.4 -298.1 -821.0 -560.3 -627.6 -52.8 -551.2 -69.3 -2,929.9 -3,888.3 -1,347.1 -3,493.9
5,313.5 3,750.7 4,469.0 -1,720.5 -7,921.8 3,732.4 3,204.5 7,062.4 297.2 -23,952.6 -9,215.7 -2,403.9
-58.7 -14.9 -36.8 -86.7 -49.1 -91.0 -176.9 -107.8 67.0 353.5 213.5 97.2
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
-264.4 466.6 -1,176.1 2.9 -1,584.1 -564.3 -723.2 778.2 1,678.0 -1,170.6 176.1 1,794.8
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
4,655.2 -3,216.5 -2,837.9 2,193.3 6,707.8 -219.1 2,200.5 5,296.9 6,901.7 1,582.9 1,544.2
-538.7 -785.8 -720.9 112.4 -574.5 290.0 -1,323.9 -276.1 -537.6 -509.0 -2,835.0
5,678.8 161.4 -2,307.9 7,133.0 4,263.5 5,343.7 7,940.1 4,063.5 7,911.1 6,130.5 3,389.4
-248.5 -2,312.2 -2,323.9 -679.8 1,341.1 -1,276.2 -272.7 -721.0 -302.8 -572.9 848.7
-379.9 -609.6 2,272.0 -4,532.5 1,586.6 -4,620.1 -4,379.0 2,177.0 -56.0 -3,477.9 193.9
143.5 338.7 242.8 160.2 91.1 43.5 236.0 53.5 -113.0 12.2 -52.8
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -11,218.1 -7,966.2 -5,637.4
1,445.7 890.7 -538.0 -1,023.3 98.2 -1,312.5 -1,046.4 -123.8 262.5 1,626.0 -184.5
2007
R: Revised P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
60
January 2010
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
Errors and omissions
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2007 2008
104.8 109.7
103.5 109.9
105.7 109.6
104.2 108.6
102.3 111.1
101.5 112.5
89.8 109.5
105.5 143.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
2.5 4.7
2.0 6.2
2.9 3.7
2.4 4.2
1.4 8.6
1.0 10.8
-2.1 21.8
4.5 36.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.0 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2007 2008
24,216 24,347
23,433 23,577
4,014 3,963
17,679 17,906
3.2 3.2
15,970 16,206
8,620 9,007
5,172 5,079
2,178 2,121
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 1,849
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
1.0 0.5
1.2 0.6
-1.0 -1.3
2.2 1.3
-
2.7 1.5
5.1 4.5
0.6 -1.8
-1.2 -2.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
Source: Statistics Korea
62
January 2010
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.5
3.7 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.1
3.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.3
932.70 1,011.40 965.70 911.30 970.20 1,008.20 1,111.30 1,083.30 1,221.00 1,158.10 1,297.40 1,379.40
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2007 2008
48,543.7 52,272.8
312,832.3 307,273.6
1,197,094.8 1,367,713.4
1,603,516.0 1,794,841.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,864,111.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,388.6 1,897,923.7 1,912,745.6 1,925,341.0 1,939,962.4 1,956,088.3 1,972,156.3 1,990,248.2 2,000,616.2
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
16.5 7.7
-5.2 -1.8
11.2 14.3
10.2 11.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
January 2010
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2007 2008
938.2 1,257.5
929.2 1,102.6
833.3 1,393.9
789.8 1,076.6
1,381.3 1,776.2
1,272.7 1,606.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
Y-o-Y change (%) 2007 2008
0.9 34.0
-2.8 18.7
6.6 67.3
-3.9 36.3
-13.0 28.6
6.1 26.2
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65