Vol. 32 | No. 3
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues Lee administration’s economic achievement for the past two years 42
Economic News Briefing
46
Statistical Appendices
53
The Green Book Current Economic Trends
Overview The Korean economy overall continued a recovery track, despite some indices becoming stagnant affected by temporary factors such as a heavy snowfall and cold wave, and the expiration of the tax credit for new car purchases. Mining and manufacturing production in January remained flat month-on-month, while rising 36.9 percent year-on-year. Service output fell 0.8 percent month-on-month due to weak performance in real estate and rent, education, and leisure businesses, but year-on-year the index rose 4.6 percent. Consumer goods sales, while gaining 6.9 percent year-on-year, lost 1.3 percent month-onmonth in January due to sluggish sales of durable goods, in particular automobile sales affected by the expiration of the tax credit for new car purchases. In January facilities investment dropped 9.8 percent month-on-month as machinery investment decreased, but year-on-year the index increased 20.4 percent. Construction completed grew both month-on-month and year-on-year by 12.7 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively, backed by the brisk public sector and civil engineering works. The total number of workers hired in January gained 5,000 year-on-year. The employment rate (seasonally adjusted) posted 58.2 percent, shedding 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.0 percent affected by temporary factors, in particular soaring applicants for Hope Employment Program where economicallyinactive population such as the aged were counted unemployed persons. Exports jumped 31.0 percent year-on-year in February, helped by the recovering global economy. Imports soared 36.9 percent year-on-year, as an unusual cold wave increased crude oil imports. Consumer prices in February declined back to the 2 percent range, as stabilizing prices of manufactured goods such as processed food and petroleum products offset increasing prices of agriculture, livestock and fishery products. Instability in the financial market grew in February, as stock prices and foreign exchange rates fluctuated affected by rocky international financial markets. To sum up, amid the global economy steadily recovering, external uncertainties rise as international financial markets are vulnerable to fiscal difficulties in some European countries and policies taken by the US and China. The Korean government, to achieve a secure economic recovery, will keep pursuing expansionary fiscal policies, while renewing its efforts to create jobs. On the other hand, the government will keep an eye on any changes in internal and external situations including international financial markets, and check risks in the Korean economy to timely respond to possible worsening of economic conditions. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy has been slowly rebounding, as major countries such as the US, Japan and European countries continued to grow in the fourth quarter of 2009. There have been some moves toward liquidity control such as the US discount rate hike and China’s further increase in the bank reserve ratio. Concerns about sovereign credit risk from European countries have been relieved to some degree after Greek government’s announcement of new fiscal austerity plan.
US
US real GDP was revised upward to 5.9 percent (annualized q-o-q, preliminary) in the fourth quarter from 5.7 percent (advanced). The real economy including consumption and production continued a slow recovery, as industrial production and retail sales rose in January from the previous month. The US housing market recovery decelerated in January, despite the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index inching up 0.3 percent, as existing and new home sales fell 7.2 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively. The job market slowed its fall, as the unemployment rate improved from the previous month, landing at 9.7 percent, and non-farm payrolls decreased at a slower pace. The Federal Reserve announced in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on February 18 that it would raise the discount rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent from 0.5 and shorten loan terms to overnight from 28 days. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, at the House of Representative hearing on February 24, that the Fed would keep its main interest rate at an all-time low near zero for an “extended period.” (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditure - Corporate fixed investment
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
0.4
-2.7
-5.4
-2.4
-6.4
-0.7
2.2
5.9
-
-0.2
-3.5
-3.1
-0.6
0.6
-0.9
2.8
1.7
-
1.6
-6.1
-19.5
-17.9
-39.2
-9.6
-5.9
6.5
-
-22.9
-15.9
-23.2
-20.4
-38.2
-23.3
18.9
5.0
-
Industrial production
-1.8
-2.3
-3.4
-9.8
-5.2
-2.7
1.6
1.6
0.9
Retail sales
-0.8
-1.5
-6.8
-6.0
-1.3
-0.1
1.6
1.9
0.5
New home sales
-37.4
-9.8
-15.0
-22.8
-13.5
9.9
9.2
-8.9
-11.2
New non-farm payroll employment (thousand)2
-302
-334
-651
-398
-753
-478
-260
-103
-20
3.8
5.2
1.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.9
-1.6
1.5
2.6
- Construction investment for housing
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce
4
March 2010
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
The Chinese government further raised the bank reserve ratio on February 25, aiming to stabilize asset prices, amid increasing domestic demand and expanding exports. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in January stayed above the benchmark 50 for the 12th consecutive month, but compared with the previous month, it fell 3.8 points. Manufacturing PMI (y-o-y, %) 54.0 (Aug 2009)
54.3 (Sep)
55.2 (Oct)
55.2 (Nov)
56.6 (Dec)
55.8 (Jan 2010)
52.0 (Feb)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Annual Real GDP
Q3
2009 Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
2010 Q3
Q4
Jan
9.0
9.0
6.8
8.7
6.2
7.9
9.1
10.7
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
26.1
27.6
26.1
30.5
28.6
33.6
33.3
30.5
-
Retail sales
21.6
23.2
20.6
15.5
14.9
15.0
15.4
16.9
-
Industrial production
12.9
13.0
6.4
11.0
5.1
9.2
12.4
18.0
-
Exports
17.2
22.9
4.1
-15.9
-19.7
-23.5
-20.7
0.2
21.0
Consumer prices
5.9
5.3
2.5
-0.7
-0.6
-1.5
-1.3
0.7
1.5
Producer prices
6.9
9.7
2.5
-5.4
-4.6
-7.2
-7.7
-2.1
4.3
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s economy grew 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, maintaining recovery momentum, as exports increased and facility investment rebounded. Exports surged, thanks to a low base effect from the previous year and growing demand from the recovering global economy. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Real GDP
-0.7
-1.1
-3.0
-5.0
-3.2
1.3
0.0
1.1
-
Industrial and mining production
-3.4
-3.3
-17.7
-22.3
-17.2
14.6
5.9
4.7
2.5
0.3
0.8
-1.5
-2.2
-3.9
-0.9
-3.4
-0.7
2.6
-3.5
3.2
-23.1
-33.1
-46.9
-38.5
-34.4
-8.0
40.8
1.4
2.2
1.0
-1.4
-0.1
-1.0
-2.2
-2.0
-1.3
Retail sales (y-o-y, %) Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
The eurozone economy showed a slow recovery, posting 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter growth in the fourth quarter, as Germany’s GDP stayed flat and Italy’s economy contracted 0.2 percent. Greek government's announcement on March 3 of additional deficit cuts worth 4.8 billion euros (US$6.6 billion) alleviated the country’s sovereign debt concerns to some degree. (Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual
Q3
Q4
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
0.8
-0.4
-1.9
-4.0
-2.5
-0.1
0.4
0.1
-
Industrial production
-1.8
-2.0
-7.8
-14.9
-8.3
-1.4
1.9
0.2
-
Retail sales
Real GDP
-0.7
-0.4
-1.1
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
Exports (y-o-y, %)
3.6
5.3
-4.9
-18.1
-20.9
-23.2
-19.4
-8.4
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
3.3
3.8
2.3
0.3
1.0
0.2
-0.4
0.4
1.0
Source: Eurostat
6
March 2010
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2009 edged down 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter but increased 5.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Private consumption
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
20081
20091
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
5.1
0.9
1.4
-3.7
0.2
-4.4
-0.8
0.8
5.6
-
-
0.0
-4.6
-
0.4
3.6
1.5
-0.1
3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales in January 2010 dropped 1.3 percent month-on-month, negatively affected by weak sales of durable goods including automobiles and non-durable goods, but rose 6.9 percent year-on-year. Durable goods sales continued an upward trend year-on-year, soaring 39.8 percent, but fell 5.7 percent month-on-month due to a drop in automobile sales as the tax break for new car purchases expired. Non-durable goods sales decreased 2.0 percent month-on-month or 5.2 percent year-onyear, as gasoline sales dropped due to a cold wave and heavy snow. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q4
Annual
Consumer goods sales
1.1
-4.2
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
- Durable goods
2
3
1
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2.6
-4.7
1.5
2.8
10.8
9.7
12.7
6.9
-3.6
-
1.0
5.1
0.3
4.1
0.5
1.2
-1.3
1.6
-9.6
8.1
-11.9
5.7
7.9
33.9
40.7
45.8
39.8
1
Nov
Dec
1
Jan1
-3.5
-21.0
21.8
-20.6
20.1
24.1
76.9
113.3
92.0
73.0
- Semi-durable goods4
-3.0
-10.7
0.3
-1.5
-0.6
-0.7
3.4
0.3
7.2
5.2
- Non-durable goods
1.4
0.2
1.2
-1.4
0.5
1.9
4.1
1.5
1.5
-5.2
Automobiles
5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at department stores and specialized retailers jumped 6.5 percent and 10.9 percent year-on-year, respectively, whereas those at large discounters posted a 9.0 percent year-onyear drop. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
Annual
2009 Q4
Annual1
Q1
Q2
1.2
-4.3
3.3
-0.8
2.5
-1.0
-2.0
-1.8
-8.2
2.9
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
0.4
4.2
9.1
3.2
14.7
6.5
-4.4
-2.9
-3.4
3.2
-1.3
5.4
-9.0
-6.6
2.6
3.5
12.6
12.6
14.1
10.9
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
March 2010
2010 1
1
Jan1
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Consumer goods sales in February are projected to rebound from a month earlier, given an increased demand during the Lunar New Year holidays, improvements in advanced estimates, and recovering consumer spending, with the year-on-year index continuing to improve due to a low base effect from the previous year. Domestic credit card spending rose 21.2 percent year-on-year, posting a 20 percent range increase for three consecutive months since December 2009 when the index first landed at 20 percent. Sales at department stores jumped 14.5 percent year-on-year, adding 9.7 percentage points to the January figure. Sales at large discounters sharply rebounded by 31.3 percent year-onyear in February, after the previous month’s fall of 13.4 percent. Domestic sales of Korean automobiles in February contracted month-on-month due to the expiration of the tax break for new car purchases and Lunar New Year holidays, while increasing 21.3 percent year-on-year. Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (ten thousand units) 13.1 (Oct 2009)
13.7(Nov)
15.7 (Dec)
11.9 (Jan 2010)
10.7 (Feb)
Gasoline sales turned positive in four months, thanks to an increasing demand during the Lunar New Year holidays. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 14.7 (Sep 2009)
9.4 (Oct)
18.3 (Nov)
20.0 (Dec)
20.2 (Jan 2010)
21.2 (Feb)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 8.6 (Sep 2009)
11.4 (Oct)
6.4 (Nov)
12.5 (Dec)
4.8 (Jan 2010)
3.9 (Dec)
-13.4 (Jan 2010)
14.5 (Feb)
Discount store sales (y-o-y, %) -6.0 (Sep 2009)
4.5 (Oct)
-2.8 (Nov)
31.3 (Feb)
Domestic sales of Korean automobiles (y-o-y, %) 76.0 (Sep 2009)
23.8 (Oct)
83.6 (Nov)
79.9 (Dec)
61.7 (Jan 2010)
21.3 (Feb)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) -0.3 (Sep 2009)
20.7 (Oct)
-3.0 (Nov)
-4.5 (Dec)
-0.6 (Jan 2010)
9.4 (Feb)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Korea National Oil Corporation Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for February data)
Gradually improving employment and subdued inflation is expected to help recovery in private consumption. Number of workers hired (y-o-y, ten thousand) 7.1 (Sep 2009)
1.0 (Oct)
-1.0 (Nov)
-1.6 (Dec)
2.8 (Dec)
3.1 (Jan 2010)
0.5 (Jan 2010)
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 2.0 (Oct 2009)
2.4 (Nov)
2.7 (Feb)
The Consumer Sentiment Index, which slightly decreased in February but stayed above the benchmark 100, is also projected to positively affect private consumption. Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) 114 (Sep 2009)
10
March 2010
117 (Oct)
113 (Nov)
113 (Dec)
113 (Jan 2010)
111 (Feb)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2009 posted a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7 percent, and a year-on-year gain of 12.9 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9.3
-2.0
1.5
1.1
4.3
-14.0
-23.5
-15.9
-7.4
12.9
-
-
-0.4
0.4
0.2
-14.2
-11.2
10.1
10.4
4.7
- Machinery
9.2
-2.7
-1.2
-0.1
6.5
-15.3
-24.0
-19.6
-15.1
-
- Transportation equipment
9.6
0.4
12.2
5.1
-3.6
-9.9
-21.8
-3.2
21.8
-
Facility investment1 (Seasonally adjusted) 2
1. National accounts 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment in January rose 20.4 percent year-on-year but the index fell 9.8 percent month-on-month, affected by a high base effect from the previous month and seasonal factors which caused machinery investment such as semi-conductors to fall by 12.7 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007 Annual Facility investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Machinery
2008
2009
Annual Annual1
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Jan
Nov
Dec1
Jan1
8.2
-3.0
-8.0
-17.9
-12.9
-10.0
10.2
-21.1
10.2
21.1
20.4
-
-
-
-10.2
5.6
2.4
13.9
-4.5
5.9
5.9
-9.8
7.5
-4.2
-12.9
-22.1
-18.9
-17.0
8.8
-22.2
7.2
19.5
15.1
11.3
2.1
12.0
0.1
11.8
20.0
15.5
-16.4
21.5
27.4
41.7
20.6
-13.8
-11.8
-35.5
-17.7
3.4
20.0
-49.1
56.2
21.2
11.3
- Public
-11.4
5.0
61.7
150.8
29.9
280.2
-27.2
56.5
110.1
-44.5
-27.1
- Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders
- Private
24.5
-15.5
-19.9
-44.8
-22.3
-16.0
35.2
-54.4
45.5
52.4
18.0
- Machinery imports
22.1
6.4
-16.6
-27.9
-27.4
-15.9
-7.2
-33.6
21.6
24.7
34.8
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
1.7
-1.7
-4.0
-19.1
-8.9
1.2
12.8
-29.9
14.9
31.5
34.4
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea & The Korea International Trade Association
Facility investment in February is expected to increase from the previous month, given improvements in leading indicators such as machinery orders and imports, corporate investment confidence and facility investment adjustment pressure.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
March 2010
2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
100
96
98
103
101
103
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose 3.9 percent year-on-year, while remaining unchanged quarter-on-quarter. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2007
Construction investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
3
- Building construction - Civil engineering works
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.4
-2.1
-1.9
-0.3
0.2
-5.6
1.6
3.7
2.7
3.9
-
-
-2.5
-0.3
0.1
-3.0
5.2
1.7
-2.0
0.0
-0.0
-4.3
-1.2
-0.1
-0.1
-14.3
-11.1
-3.5
-0.4
-
3.8
1.3
-3.2
-0.7
0.7
5.7
24.9
14.3
7.7
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction completed (current value) in January rose 8.9 percent year-on-year or 12.7 percent month-on-month thanks to an increase in SOC budget spending which affected public sector performance. Both building construction and civil engineering works climbed 8.6 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively, from the previous year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Construction completed
2007
2008
Annual
Annual
6.6
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
4.9
3.3
4.3
6.4
-1.2
3.7
-0.5
3.2
12.9
8.9
-
-
-
8.1
0.7
-6.3
3.4
15.0
-0.7
1.4
12.7
8.4
6.5
21.2
24.5
31.9
21.3
10.7
25.2
8.1
18.3
11.6
(Seasonally adjusted)2 - Public
2009 1
1
Jan
Nov
Dec
1
Jan1
4.6
2.2
-5.7
-5.3
-5.9
-11.8
0.4
-11.4
1.7
9.8
7.6
23.6
-7.6
3.0
-12.0
-1.1
7.6
11.6
0.3
78.8
-19.6
17.1
- Public
40.3
10.0
60.9
33.1
182.9
78.9
11.6
64.4
63.3
-33.9
-14.7
- Private
16.5
-14.3
-21.9
-37.3
-60.2
-14.3
17.3
-31.2
92.5
-9.6
49.4
13.3
-20.1
-12.9
-31.6
-32.7
-4.6
13.1
-48.3
14.1
42.7
33.3
- Private Construction orders
Building permit Area
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea & The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment in February is expected to be negatively affected by a high base effect from the previous month, despite improving leading indicators such as construction orders and business survey indices.
2009
Business survey indices (base=100) for construction projections Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
March 2010
2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
110.8
90.1
83.6
74.8
91.4
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in February rose 31.0 percent year-on-year to US$33.27 billion. Exports, while staying on a positive track backed by the recovering global economy, grew at a slower pace compared with the previous month, as the number of working days decreased by 1.5 days with the Lunar New Year holidays falling on February instead of January. Working-day-adjusted daily average exports rose to US$1.62 billion from the previous month’s US$1.38 billion, helped by soaring vessel exports from US$1.9 billion to US$5 billion. By export category, semiconductors (up 118.4%) and liquid crystal devices (up 60.3%) made great strides, and by regional category, exports to Central and South America (up 62.2%) and China (up 43.2%) surged. (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
363.53
74.42
90.36
94.78
103.97
21.13
25.40
31.01
33.27
-13.9
-25.2
-21.1
-17.6
11.7
-34.5
-18.5
46.7
31.0
1.30
1.10
1.30
1.32
1.49
0.98
0.91
1.38
1.62
323.09
71.42
74.00
84.84
92.85
24.90
22.60
31.47
30.94
-25.8
-32.7
-35.6
-31.0
1.4
-31.4
-30.7
26.4
36.9
1.16
1.06
1.06
1.18
1.33
1.16
1.03
1.40
1.51
Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in February jumped 36.9 percent year-on-year to US$30.94 billion, accelerating an increase from the previous month, due to a low base effect, rising imports of crude oil by 56.9 percent and petroleum products by 102.5 percent, backed by a cold wave, and the recovering economy. Average daily imports in working-day-adjusted-terms increased from the previous month’s US$1.4 billion to US$1.51 billion. Imports of capital goods, raw materials and consumer goods all expanded greatly year-on-year. Raw materials (y-o-y, %) -42.8 (Q2, 2009)
-39.3 (Q3)
-2.3 (Q4); 25.4 (Jan 2010)
42.8 (Feb)
Capital goods (y-o-y, %) -23.6 (Q2, 2009)
-13.7 (Q3)
8.2 (Q4); 30.3 (Jan 2010)
29.3 (Feb)
4.6 (Q4); 21.3 (Jan 2010)
27.1 (Feb)
Consumer goods (y-o-y, %) -24.4 (Q2, 2009)
-20.9 (Q3)
The trade balance in February shifted back to the black from the previous month’s deficit of US$460 million, posting a surplus of US$2.33 billion.
(US$ billion) 2009
Trade Balance Source: Korea Customs Service
16
March 2010
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
40.45
3.00
16.39
9.94
11.12
-3.77
2.80
-0.46
2.33
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production remained steady month-on-month in January, while rising 36.9 percent year-on-year due to a low base effect from the same period of the previous year. By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 80.1%), automobiles (up 83.1%), and primary metals (up 50.5%) posted an increase year-on-year, whereas refined petroleum products (down 5.8%) and beverages (down 2.2%) decreased. Shipments, led by semiconductors and parts, continued to improve, posting a 32.4 percent increase year-on-year and 0.8 percent month-on-month, while the level of inventory fell at a slightly slower pace year-on-year from 7.5 percent to 4.0 percent. By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 77.8%), and automobiles (up 79.0%) rose year-on-year, while those of cigarettes (down 3.3%) and refined petroleum products (down 0.7%) declined. The inventories of apparels (down 32.5%), non-metal minerals (down 20.2%), and primary metals (down 9.6%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector was 78.8 percent, down 0.9 percentage points from a month earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2009 Annual
1
2010
Q3
Q4
1
Jan
Nov
Dec
1
Jan1
-
-
6.8
1.3
2.9
1.8
2.4
0.0
(y-o-y)
3.4
-0.7
4.3
16.2
-25.7
18.0
34.3
36.9
- Manufacturing
3.0
-0.9
4.4
16.8
-27.3
18.8
36.0
38.9
Heavy chemical industry Light industry Shipment - Domestic demand
4.4
0.1
5.7
20.0
-28.1
21.9
41.5
43.5
-1.6
-5.7
-2.4
1.7
-22.9
3.6
11.6
17.7
2.6
-1.7
2.1
12.8
-23.6
15.4
26.2
32.4
-0.4
-1.8
3.3
12.4
-24.3
13.9
26.2
26.1
- Exports
7.2
-1.7
0.4
13.3
-22.6
17.5
26.1
34.4
Inventory3
7.1
-8.0
-14.2
-8.0
-0.1
-14.6
-8.0
-4.0
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
77.5
74.6
78.8
78.4
62.8
78.2
79.7
78.8
5.1
3.1
3.2
4.0
2.6
3.9
4.5
4.5
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry Source: Statistics Korea
3. End-period
Mining and manufacturing production in February is projected to remain steady considering advanced indices such as exports and industrial electricity sales. Industrial electricity sales (thousand GWh) 17.7 (Oct 2009)
18.1 (Nov)
19.1 (Dec)
19.4 (Jan 2010)
34.3 (Nov)
36.2 (Dec)
17.2 (Feb) 1
1. Estimate
Exports (US$ billion) 34.1 (Sep 2009)
18
March 2010
34.0 (Oct)
31.1 (Jan 2010)
32.7 (Feb)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in January 2010 decreased 0.8 percent month-on-month due to sluggish educational services and real estate & renting services. From a year earlier, service output expanded 4.6 percent. By business category, finance & insurance services (up 2.8%), business services (up 2.6%) led the month-on-month increase in service activity. On the other hand, educational services (down 7.9%) and real estate & rental (down 6.6%) declined from a month earlier. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
-0.3
2.4
1.9
3.6
4.2
6.9
Service activity index
100
3.6
0.0
2.0
- Wholesale & retail
1
Jan1 4.6
22.0
1.3
-4.7
-0.4
-4.8
-2.2
0.3
5.4
5.4
8.9
5.8
- Transportation services
9.0
4.3
-3.2
-6.6
-12.7
-10.0
-4.8
1.4
2.5
4.8
11.6
- Hotels & restaurants
7.8
0.7
-3.0
-1.5
-2.6
-0.6
-2.5
-0.2
-1.9
3.6
3.2
- Information & communication services
8.4
3.3
-0.8
0.7
-1.4
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
0.7
- Financial & insurance services
15.3
9.7
4.5
8.0
6.9
10.3
9.0
5.7
5.3
7.7
8.9
- Real estate & renting
6.3
-2.1
-7.5
5.3
-4.2
-2.2
6.7
21.6
21.3
25.9
8.6
- Professional, scientific & technical activities
4.8
2.0
0.9
1.0
-1.7
3.8
0.0
1.6
-2.4
7.7
0.4
- Business services
2.9
4.4
0.0
-3.0
-4.9
-6.2
-0.8
-0.2
-1.3
0.6
3.0
- Educational services
10.8
1.7
7.4
2.8
9.4
16.5
-3.7
-9.6
2.1
-3.3
-12.1
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
8.7
8.7
10.4
8.9
8.9
10.4
13.2
12.5
14.9
14.0
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.2
3.3
-0.5
1.4
0.7
0.0
-3.8
-6.6
2.6
2.0
- Membership organizations
3.8
0.1
-1.0
-2.4
-3.8
-4.8
-1.4
0.1
-2.2
2.8
2.2
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
5.8
4.0
3.7
0.1
9.0
6.0
-0.2
2.3
0.3
5.9
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service activity in February 2010 is expected to slightly increase from a month earlier. Amid robust expectations on wholesale & retail sales as well as advertisement & broadcasting services affected by the lunar New Year’s holidays and Winter Olympics, improved labor market conditions also served as a positive factor. Initial claims for unemployment benefits (thousand) 67.1 (Oct 2009)
20
March 2010
70.2 (Nov)
93.7 (Dec)
139.7 (Jan 2010)
88 (Feb)
l es
l&
tate
ncia
& re
ranc
e se
ns
bus iness f ines acil s su ity m ppo ana rt se gem rvic ent es & Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea serv lthcare ices & s ocia l we lfar e Ente serv rtainm ices ent , cu ltur al & spo Me rts othe mbersh r pe ip o rson rgan al s izati ervi ons Sew ces , re pair reco erage, & very was & re te m med ana iatio gem n ac ent, tivit mate ies rials
es
atio
rvic
unic
s
omm
rant
tail
insu
&c
stau
tion
& re
ion
& re
ntin g Prof e s tech sion nica al, s l se cien rvic tifi c& es Bus
Rea
Fina
ale
rtat
rma
els
Info
Hot
spo
oles
Tran
Wh
ex
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
December 2009 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in January 2010 increased by 5,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points to 56.6 percent. Employment in construction (down 81,000), and agriculture, forestry & fishery (down 160,000) stayed on a downward track, while hiring in the manufacturing (up 29,000) and service sector (up 213,000) increased. Manufacturing employment rose due to an increase in both production and exports. Employment in construction continued to decline, although decelerating the pace. Hiring in services soared as a result of the recovery of domestic consumption and expanded expenditure. Employment in agriculture, forestry & fishery sector tumbled with lower temperature and heavy snowfalls. Wage workers rose by 244,000 led by an increase of 609,000 in regular workers, although the number of daily workers plunged by 244,000. Non-wage workers including selfemployed workers (down 113,000), however, plummeted by 240,000 from a year earlier. In the mean time, male workers (up 91,000) and workers in their fifties (up 233,000) significantly increased.
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Jan
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
23.58
23.75
23.64
23.51
22.86
22.90
23.74
23.75
23.63
22.87
Employment rate (%)
59.5
59.9
59.4
58.6
84.8
57.4
59.3
59.1
58.7
56.6
(seasonally adjusted)
59.5
59.5
59.2
58.6
59.0
58.8
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.2
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
145
141
54
-72
-11.8
-146
-134
-1
-6
165
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
182
179
46
-34
-
-160
-109
24
110
-
- Manufacturing
-52
-52
-103
-126
-127
-163
-151
-143
-49
29
- Construction
-37
-40
-41
-91
-41
-43
-113
-103
-107
-81
- Services
263
262
187
186
57
47
155
269
264
213
Number of employed (million)
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-37
-38
8
-38
15
14
-25
-25
-116
-160
- Wage workers
236
208
137
247
21
73
175
356
413
244
Regular workers
386
347
316
383
287
318
313
386
492
609
Temporary workers
-93
-83
-94
22
-134
-136
-5
125
186
-121
Daily workers
-57
-56
-85
-158
-133
-108
-133
-155
-264
-244
- Non-wage workers
-92
-66
-83
-319
-123
-220
-309
-357
-424
-240
-79
-76
-95
-259
-112
-197
-286
-276
-307
-113
96
92
43
31
-19
-23
24
34
89
91 -9
Self-employed workers - Male - Female
48
49
12
-103
-84
-124
-158
-34
-94
- 15 to 29
-119
-114
-166
-127
-240
-212
-99
-123
-77
14
- 30 to 39
-26
-36
-92
-173
-113
-159
-213
-169
-149
-81
- 40 to 49
64
92
56
-24
28
8
-27
-30
-46
-56
- 50 to 59
207
169
206
198
197
193
156
211
230
233
18
30
50
54
25
23
49
109
37
-105
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
March 2010
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of the unemployed in January 2010 climbed by 368,000 year-on-year to record 1,216,000, and the unemployment rate rose by 1.1 percentage points to 5.0 percent. The number of female workers who have lost jobs (up 214,000) increased at a faster pace than that of male workers unemployed (up 154,000) in January. The unemployment rate was high among employers in their fifties and sixties or over as applicants for public works allotted to seniors were categorized as economically active population.
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Jan
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Number of unemployed (thousand)
769
752
757
889
848
908
943
886
817
1,216
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-14
-5
24
119
73
107
176
134
60
368
- Male
-12
1
25
80
66
83
116
95
25
154
-1
-6
-1
40
8
24
60
39
36
214
Unemployment rate (%)
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.3
5.0
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.5
4.8
- Youth aged 15 to 29
7.2
6.9
7.0
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.0
8.1
7.6
9.3
- Middle school graduate or under
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.5
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.2
2.3
7.1
- High school graduate
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.0
5.2
- College, univ. graduate or over
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.5
3.0
3.6
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.8
- Female
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in January 2010 was up 150,000 from a year earlier to post 16,310,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate was up 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 59.6 percent. Workers quit jobs due to childcare & housework (up 190,000) and old ages (up 190,000) surged while those who stayed away from work to take a rest (down 231,000) significantly decreased.
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Jan
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
61.5
61.8
61.3
60.6
59.5
59.7
61.7
61.3
60.7
59.6
Economically inactive population (million) 15.25
15.15
15.37
15.70
16.16
16.09
15.35
15.53
15.83
16.31
Labor force participation rate (%)
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
297
289
372
447
506
514
445
374
456
150
- Engaged in family duties
123
134
112
188
147
209
173
119
250
190
- Retired
76
104
59
88
55
52
102
105
92
190
- Rest
31
-27
99
123
149
162
112
94
123
-231
Source: Statistics Korea
24
March 2010
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Unemployment rate by education Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in February 2010 slightly fell adversely affected by unfavorable factors in the global economy. Global investor sentiment has been chilled as uncertainty over global monetary policy rose as the US and China moved to absorb liquidity. On February 18, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) raised the discount rate by 25 basis points while China’s central bank lifted the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points on February 16. Worries over the Greek debt crisis persisted as European finance ministers failed to spell out concrete measures to aid Greece and credit rating agencies, S&P and Moody’s, hinted that they may downgrade Greece’s sovereign debt rating. Due to the flight to safety assets, foreign investors shifted to a net-buying position on Korean shares for the first time since February 2009. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI Jan 2010
Feb 2010
1,602.4
1,594.6
848.1
844.1
Average daily trade value
6.2
4.0
Foreign stock ownership
32.5
32.1
Stock price index Market capitalization
KOSDAQ Change
Jan 2010
Feb 2010
-7.9(-0.5%)
496.6
507.3
10.5(2.1%)
-43.2(-4.4%)
84.8
84.4
-0.4(-0.5%)
-2.2(-35.5%)
3.2
2.3
-0.9(-28.1%)
-0.4(-1.2%)
7.6
7.5
-0.1(-1.3%)
1
Change1
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate as of the end of February 2010 fell 1.8 won from 1,161.8 won at the end of January to wrap up the month at 1,160.0 won. The exchange rate has shown higher volatility fluctuating in the 1,140 to 1,170 won range due to external factors such as credit concerns in the eurozone and Dubai and the Fed’s discount rate hike, rather than internal factors. The won/yen exchange rate rose 5.8 won from 1,293.2 won to 1,299.0 won due to growing demand for safe assets including yen affected by sovereign debt woes in Greece and other eurozone countries. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
2010 Jan
Feb
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,161.8
1,160.0
0.4
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,293.2
1,299.0
-2.7
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
March 2010
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields were down in February 2010 due to expectations on the Bank of Korea’s policy rate freeze after the bank’s monetary policy meeting and continuing concerns over Greek financial troubles. Although treasury bond yields edged up in mid-February with the Fed’s discount rate rise, they turned to a decrease as international credit rating company warned Greece of a credit rating downgrade. (End-period, %) 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Call rate (1 day)
3.76
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.00
2.01
1
CD (91 days)
4.09
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.88
2.88
0
Change1
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
5.08
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
4.27
4.10
-17
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.52
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
5.39
5.24
-15
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.36
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.82
4.62
-20
1. Basis point changes in February 2010 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in December 2009 expanded 8.8 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. The year-on-year M2 growth was lower than the previous month’s 9.1 percent due to accelerated absorption of money by the government and reduced amount of foreign funds invested in Korean bonds. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2009
2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Dec1
-1.8
-12.4
-0.1
2.1
5.0
16.3
10.8
17.6
18.9
17.8
17.3
16.4
377
M2
14.3
13.3
15.3
14.7
13.8
10.1
11.5
10.1
9.5
9.3
9.1
8.8
1,562
Lf3
11.9
11.6
12.8
12.1
11.2
Upper7
8.8
7.3
7.5
Mid7
Around 7
Mid7
1,9934
Annual M1+
2
1. Balance at end December 2009, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Balance at end November 2009, trillion won
In January 2010, bank deposits turned to a rise while asset management company (AMC) deposits continued to fall. Bank deposits shifted to an increase driven by time deposits which expanded at a record pace fueled by deposit rate hikes. Asset management company (AMC) deposits continued to decrease due to low yields and higher interest rates on time deposits.
(Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2008
2009
Annual
Jan
Bank deposits
104.3
11.6
AMC deposits
63.0
23.5
1. Balance at end January 2010, trillion won
28
March 2010
Annual
2010
Jan
Nov
54.8
-5.2
-27.7
17.7
Dec
Jan
Jan1
1.5
-8.3
15.7
1,023
4.4
-11.1
-5.1
327
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account recorded a US$450 million deficit in January 2010. The goods account surplus decreased significantly to post US$1.55 billion from the previous month’s US$4.02 billion as the trade account shifted to a deficit. Although the travel account deficit expanded, the service account deficit was down to US$2.16 billion from the previous month’s US$2.80 billion as the business service deficit fell. The income account surplus declined to record US$470 million from US$700 million a month earlier due mainly to reduced dividend income. The current transfer account deficit edged down to US$300 million from the previous month’s US$400 million with decreased outward remittance. (US$ billion) 2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Jan
Current account
-5.78
42.67
8.62
13.10
10.40
10.56
4.28
1.52
-0.45
- Goods balance
5.67
56.13
8.31
17.58
14.70
15.54
5.84
4.02
1.55
-16.67
-17.20
-1.93
-4.17
-5.33
-5.78
-1.66
-2.80
-2.16
- Service balance - Income balance
5.90
4.55
0.92
0.29
1.69
1.65
0.39
0.70
0.47
- Current transfers
-0.67
-0.81
1.31
-0.60
-0.66
-0.86
-0.29
-0.40
-0.30
Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account in January 2010 posted a net inflow of US$5.07 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -1.40 (Q1 2009)
8.68 (Q2)
14.40 (Q3)
4.77 (Q4); 1.64 (Dec)
5.07 (Jan 2010)
The direct investment account expanded the net outflow to register US$1.68 billion from the previous month’s deficit of US$1.37 billion mainly as inbound foreign direct investment (FDI) was down. The portfolio investment account decreased the net inflow to record US$100 million from US$970 million a month earlier as foreign investment in the Korean stock market declined. The net inflow in the financial derivatives account was down to post US$320 million from US$990 million in the previous month as payments related to overseas financial derivative transactions increased. The other investment account increased the surplus to US$6.40 billion from the previous month’s US$1.01 billion as domestic financial institutions’ temporary borrowings from overseas were up. The current account is likely to record a surplus of around US$1 billion in February 2010 as the trade account registered a US$2.33 billion surplus.
30
March 2010
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in February 2010 increased 2.7 percent year-on-year, decelerating from the previous month’s 3.1 percent with price stabilization of processed foods and oil products, although prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products stayed on an upward track. From a month earlier, consumer prices were up 0.4 percent.
Consumer price inflation 2009
2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Month-on-Month (%)
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
-0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
Year-on-Year (%)
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.7
2.0
1.6
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.1
2.7
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
5.2
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.2
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9
(m-o-m)
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
3.3
3.1
3.0
1.8
0.5
0.4
1.3
1.7
1.5
2.3
3.3
3.8
3.4
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products increased driven by products vulnerable to cold weather. The price was also boosted by increased demand during the Lunar New Year holidays which shifted from January in 2009 to February in 2010. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in Feb 2010 (m-o-m, %) Chinese cabbage (46.0), apple (13.3), cucumber (26.5), pumpkin (26.4), bell pepper (22.0), scallion (14.7), lettuce (-34.5), strawberry (-5.7), pork (-1.8), rice (-1.0)
Prices of oil products decreased 0.2 percent from a month earlier as the won’s appreciation was reflected with time lag while international oil prices went down. Prices of Dubai crude (US$/barrel) 71.4 (Aug 2009)
67.7 (Sep)
73.2 (Oct)
77.7 (Nov)
75.5 (Dec)
76.8 (Jan 2010)
73.6 (Feb)
Public utility charges remained unchanged month-on-month without noticeable price adjustments. Personal service charges were up 0.3 percent from the previous month due to seasonal factors such as the school vacation, moving season and winter heating demand.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p) Year-on-Year (%) Contribution (%p)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.4
2.5
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.35
0.22
-0.05
-0.01
0.02
0.00
0.12
2.7
4.3
3.5
11.2
1.4
1.9
2.4
2.69
0.37
1.07
0.60
0.13
0.31
0.83
Source: Statistics Korea
Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose by 1.9 percent year-on-year. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.4 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
32
March 2010
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices Average international oil prices in February 2010 decreased month-on-month as the dollar strengthened amid fiscal woes in some European countries such as Greece. The prices, however, turned to an increase after mid-February as energy demand for heating was pushed up by cold weather and heavy snowfalls in the North Eastern region of the US. (US$/barrel, period average) 2007
2008
Annual
Annual
Annual
Aug
Sep
2009 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2010 Feb
Dubai crude
68.4
94.3
61.9
71.4
67.7
73.2
77.7
75.5
76.8
73.6
Brent crude
72.8
97.5
61.7
72.9
67.5
72.8
76.7
74.5
76.4
73.9
WTI crude
72.3
99.9
61.9
71.1
69.4
75.8
78.1
74.5
78.3
76.5
Source: KOREAPDS
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)
In the domestic market, galsoline prices inched up month-on-month backed by the won’s depreciation although international oil prices decreased. Meanwhile diesel prices declined from the previous month as the prices fell at a steeper pace than gasoline in the international market. (Won/liter, period average) 2007
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Gasoline prices
1,526
1,692
1,601
1,670
1,681
1,627
1,655
1,646
1,661
1,664
Diesel prices
1,273
1,614
1,397
1,447
1,453
1,409
1,452
1,441
1,450
1,443
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Monthly average prices of all non-ferrous metals in February decreased from a month earlier with the exception of nickel whose prices increased due to long-term strikes in the Canadian nickel mines. Non-ferrous metal prices, however, generally showed an upward trend after mid-February as concerns over China’s monetary tightening eased. International prices of grain including corn, wheat and soybean decreased from the previous month as robust grain production in South America boosted the grain harvest outlook for this year. A strong dollar also contributed to a fall in grain prices. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Feb 2010 (m-o-m, %) Corn (-5.5), wheat (-6.0), soybean (-4.3), bronze (-7.3), aluminum (-8.2), nickel (3.0), zinc (-11.6), lead (-10.5), tin (-7.6)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2,400
2,536
2,079
2,159
2,147
2,197
2,243
2,294
2,343
2,290
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS
34
March 2010
2010
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In February 2010, nationwide apartment sales prices increased at a faster pace of 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent a month earlier. In the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.1%), the increase in apartment sales prices accelerated month-on-month in Seoul (up 0.3%) including Gangnam (up 0.4%). On the other hand, prices relatively stabilized in Gyeonggi province (up 0.0%) and Incheon (down 0.1%). Meanwhile, apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area continued to increase led by some metropolitan cities such as Busan (up 1.3%) and Daejeon (up 1.3%) without enough apartments put up for sale.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2006
2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb Feb11 Feb81 Feb151 Feb221
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
2.3
1.6 -1.2
0.4
1.5
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
Seoul
24.1
3.6
3.2
2.6 -1.3
1.0
2.6
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Gangnam
27.6
0.5
-1.9
3.9 -1.1
1.7
3.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Gangbuk3
19.0
8.3
9.4
0.9 -1.7
0.2
2.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Seoul metropolitan area
24.6
4.0
2.9
0.7 -1.8
0.5
1.8
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
-0.6
1.0
2.8 -0.7
0.3
1.3
1.9
0.5
0.4
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
2
5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
The increase in rental prices has been speeded up significantly to 0.9 percent from the previous month’s 0.4 percent. In Seoul (up 1.0%), the acceleration was led by Gangnam (up 1.4%), Seocho (up 2.2%), Songpa (up 2.1%) and Gwangjin (up 3.1%) with rising demand in good school districts and from newlyweds.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2006
2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb Feb11 Feb81 Feb151 Feb221
7.6
1.9
0.8
4.5 -1.3
0.9
2.8
2.0
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
11.5
2.2
-1.8
8.1 -0.8
1.8
4.7
2.3
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
-3.6 10.4 -0.1
11.3
0.5
2.4
5.1
2.7
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
Gangbuk3
11.8
4.6
0.5
5.4 -1.6
1.0
4.2
1.9
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.3
Seoul metropolitan area
11.7
2.1
-0.4
5.6 -1.8
1.4
4.1
1.8
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
3.0
1.1
1.6
3.9 -0.9
0.4
1.9
2.6
0.7
0.7
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.3
2
5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in January 2010 plunged from 81,961 a month earlier to post 61,974. The transactions were up 26.3 percent from a year earlier and down 13.8 percent compared with the monthly average recorded in the same month for the past 3 years.
Apartment sales transactions 2007 Annual Jan
Nationwide
84
87
Source: Korea Land Corporation
36
March 2010
(Monthly average, thousand)
2008
2009
Annual Jan Annual Jan
74
80
77
49
2010
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
60
79
76
72
81
91
81
90
87
82
82
62
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Continuing the moderate recovery pace since April 2009, nationwide land prices in January 2010 rose 0.25 percent, slightly decelerating from the previous month’s 0.34 percent. Land prices in January were 3.0 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. In the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.31%), land prices in Incheon (up 0.45%) and Gyeonggi province (up 0.35%) saw a robust increase. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.37 (Oct 2009)
0.36 (Nov)
0.38 (Dec)
0.31 (Jan 2010)
Meanwhile, land price increases in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area slowed to 0.14 percent from 0.26 percent of the previous month. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.16 (Oct 2009)
0.21 (Nov)
0.26 (Dec)
0.14 (Jan 2010)
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nationwide
3.88
0.91
1.15
-0.31
1.23
1.46
1.18
-4.08
0.96 -1.20
0.35
0.88
0.94
0.25
0.25
Seoul
5.88
1.40
1.90
-1.00
1.83
2.17
1.59
-6.34
1.40 -1.38
0.68
1.30
0.81
0.25
0.25
Gyeonggi
4.22
1.05
1.14
-0.26
1.28
1.57
1.28
-4.28
1.22 -1.62
0.37
1.13
1.36
0.35
0.35
Incheon
4.86
1.13
1.37
-3.57
1.99 -1.39
1.70
0.45
0.45
1.12
1.36
1.67
2.01
Annual
0.53
1.16
Annual Jan
Source: Korea Land Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in January recorded 170,000 land lots, down 29.6 percent from the previous month and up 26.9 percent from the same month of the previous year. Nationwide land transactions decreased in terms of land lots led by Incheon (down 49.3%), South Jeolla province (down 35.8%) and Gyeonggi province (down 33.5%).
Land sales transactions
(Monthly average, land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Nationwide
2010
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
208
208
203
134
164
207
207
192
215
222
206
226
212
207
241
170
Seoul
33
26
22
13
15
20
24
22
27
26
25
28
25
19
21
16
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
26
34
41
48
45
49
50
48
56
52
48
58
39
Incheon
13
13
10
7
7
9
10
9
10
11
10
13
14
11
12
6
Source: Korea Land Corporation
38
March 2010
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The coincident composite index increased 0.9 percent month-on-month in January 2010, while the cyclical indicator of coincident composite index was up 0.5 points from the previous month. All components of the coincident composite index including the value of construction completed, the domestic shipment index and the mining and manufacturing production index increased with the exception of the number of non-farm payroll employment which has remained flat. Components of coincident composite index in Jan 2010 (m-o-m) Value of construction completed (3.8%), domestic shipment index (1.4%), mining & manufacturing production index (1.3%), volume of imports (1.0%), manufacturing operation ratio index (0.7%), service activity index (0.5%), wholesale & retail sales index (0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.0%)
The leading composite index climbed 0.3 percent from the previous month, while the 12month smoothed change in leading composite index slipped 0.3 percentage points monthon-month. The indicator of inventory cycle, the ratio of job openings to job seekers, the value of machinery orders received and the value of capital goods imports were up. Components of the leading composite index in Jan 2010 (m-o-m) Indicator of inventory cycle (3.8%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (3.3%p), value of machinery orders received (1.4%), volume of capital goods imports (0.1%), composite stock price index (0.0%), liquidity in the financial institutions (-0.1%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.1%p), net terms of trade index (-0.5%), consumer expectations index (-2.0p), value of construction orders received (-2.2%)
2009 Jul
Aug
Sep
2010 Oct
Nov
1
Dec
1
Jan1
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.9
98.4
98.7
98.9
98.9
99.1
99.1
99.6
(m-o-m, p)
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.5
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
1.1
0.7
0.3
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
7.6
8.8
9.6
10.3
11.3
11.6
11.3
(m-o-m, %p)
2.1
1.2
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.3
-0.3
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
1. Preliminary
40
March 2010
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
94.2 92.6
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues Lee Administration’s Economic Achievement for the Past Two Years
As the Lee Myung-bak administration started its third year at the end of February, the government looked back on the achievement of the Lee administration in terms of efforts 1) to weather the global economic crisis, 2) support the working class, 3) upgrade Korea’s image in the international community, 4) restructure the economy, and 5) enhance potential for future economic growth.
Weathering the economic crisis Korea is one of the three OECD economies seeing positive growth in 2009, achieving annual growth of 0.2 percent. The financial and foreign exchange markets began to stabilize from the second quarter of 2009, reflecting expectations of economic rebound, as anxiety over the international financial market began to be eased: The KOSPI soared from end-2008’s 1124.5 points to 1682.8 points at the end of 2009, and during the same period the won/dollar exchange rate continued to improve from 1259.5 won to 1164.5 won. The current account balance recorded a surplus of US$42.7 billion in 2009, backed by brisk exports. The IMF, OECD, and Fitch Ratings positively evaluated the role of the Korean government in facilitating riding out the economic crisis (IMF at the annual consultation meeting in December 2009, OECD at the 2010 annual meeting in February 2010, and Fitch Ratings in September 2009). The Korean government pursued expansionary fiscal policies along with tax cuts in 2008 and 2009, to supplement and stimulate demand. Some of the examples of the policies are 4.9 trillion won of supplementary budget to control rising oil prices, 11.4 trillion won of additional budget at the end of 2008 to cope with the economic crisis, and the record high level of supplementary budget for job creation of 28.4 trillion won. The increased budget was complemented with early budget expenditure, with 62.9 percent of the 2009 budget, 171.5 trillion won spent in the first half of 2009. Both income tax cuts to boost domestic demand and corporate tax cuts to promote investment were implemented in line with consumption tax reduction and investment tax deduction.
42
March 2010
The Korean government responded swiftly in the financial market: The Bank of Korea slashed the base rate from 5.25 to 2.0 percent, while supplying liquidity of 27.9 trillion won through RP purchases, open market operation, bank recapitalization fund, total loan increase, bond market stabilization fund, and increased interest-on-reserves. The government also carried out measures exclusive for SMEs to provide them liquidity and credit, which resulted in reduced default rates of corporate bonds and corporations. Thanks to government’s foreign liquidity provision measures such as currency swap arrangements with the US, Japan and China, foreign currency liquidity provision by the Bank of Korea, bond issuance to secure foreign liquidity, and relaxed regulations to facilitate inflows of foreign investment, most indices related to foreign exchange markets have recovered to the pre-crisis level: The CDS premium, which was 104 basis points in August 2008, fell back to 103 basis points in February 2010, after it hit 699 basis points in October 2008. The current account balance greatly improved from a US$5.78 billion deficit in 2008 to a surplus of US$42.67 billion in 2009, backed by relatively strong exports compared to other nations amid the global economic downturn. Korea was ranked the 9 th largest exporter in 2009, climbing from the 12th in 2008. The government increased support for export insurance from 130 trillion won to 170 trillion won and credit guarantee for exporters from 1.5 trillion won to 6 trillion won between 2008 and 2009 in addition to expanded budgets for R&D and overseas marketing. The government’s efforts to help enhance Korean companies’ competitiveness will continue through its firm support for parts and service industries, and green growth engines.
Supporting the working class To help boost falling employment levels in face of the crisis, the government launched the job sharing program. Government’s job creation programs include ‘Hope Employment Program’ which provided 250,000 jobs to the vulnerable group, youth internship program through which 99,000 college graduates were employed, and social welfare service program for which the government financed 1.1 trillion won in 2008 and 16.4 trillion won in 2009 to support employment of social welfare workers. In 2010 ‘the National Strategic Meeting on Employment’, a monthly meeting presided by the president, was launched, in which mid-and long term as well as short term measures to raise employment are discussed, laid out, and implemented. The government took various measures to stabilize prices directly affecting the lives of low income class. The price stabilizing measures include oil tax reduction of 10 percent, redemption of 3.5 trillion won for oil purchased in 2008, lowering tariff quotas and stabilizing public utility charges, and monitoring prices of 52 necessities: lower tariff quotas applied to 123 import items in 2009 and public utility charges up 2.4 percent in 2008 and 1.9 percent in 2009. The government will monitor and balance supply of and demand for agriculture, livestock and fishery products to stabilize their prices, while it strictly bans pricefixing of manufactured goods.
Economic Bulletin
43
The ratio of welfare budget to total budget was steadily increased from 2007’s 25.8 percent to 26.2 percent in 2008 to 26.6 in 2010. To help the low income class with burden of education and housing costs, the government adopted income contingent loans and low interest rate student tuition loans, and planned to provide 1.5 million housing units affordable to the low income group between 2009 and 2018. The government began supporting those who have will to be self-reliant but with poor credit through micro-loan programs which do not require any security for loans. The micro-loan programs will be expanded to 2 trillion won for the next 10 years. Low income working families of 590,000 received earned income tax credit of 453.7 billion won in 2009 for the first time, which was designed to encourage them to work.
Upgrading Korea’s image in the international community In 2009 as one of the G20 Troika, Korea played an active role in working together in the international community to ride out the crisis through the Washington, London and Pittsburg summits, where Korea proposed a standstill on protectionism, sharing Korea’s experience of dealing with toxic assets, and international cooperation in laying out exit strategies. Korea, as the first emerging country to host a G20 summit, will try hard to effectively play a bridging role between developed and developing countries, enhance cooperation among international organizations, and actively collaborate with domestic and overseas think tanks to reflect their expertise to the G20 Seoul summit in 2010. Korea made one step forward to become a more reliable donor country by doubling the size of Official Development Aid (ODA) from US$450 million in 2006 to US$900 million in 2009, and expanding Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP), through which Korea shares its economic development experience with other developing countries, from eight countries in 2008 to 11 countries in 2009 with increasing financial support from 2.5 billion won to 5 billion won. Korea joined the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) in November 2009, and the legal basis for ODA has been established in January 2010. On the trade front, five FTAs (FTAs with Chile, the EFTA, Singapore, the ASEAN, and India) are in force, two (FTAs with the US and the EU) signed, seven (FTAs with Canada, the GCC, Mexico, Peru, Australia, New Zealand, Columbia) under negotiation, and eight under study. To raise Korea’s birth rate, the government announced measures covering five key areas of easing bringing-up burden, supporting households with more than two children, creating family-friendly working environment, supporting single parent and adopting parents, and pursuing more open immigration policies. Action plans for 2011 through 2015 will follow, and be reflected in budgeting.
44
March 2010
Restructuring the economy The government founded a financial basis for corporate restructuring by launching the Bank Recapitalization Fund of 20 trillion won and Corporate Restructuring Fund of 40 trillion won. To promote corporate restructuring, the government introduced corporate tax reduction in April 2009, which applies to a company or its major shareholders selling assets to repay corporate debt. The revised capital market law was passed in the plenary session of the National Assembly in February 2010, which allows Private Equity Fund to invest in corporation under restructuring. Household debt, in particular mortgage loans, has been on the rise. However, the debt is relatively sound thanks to the government’s early response to increasing mortgage loans by tightening the loan to value (LTV) ratio and debt to income (DTI) ratio. In dealing with cacophonous labor-management relations, the government stuck to the principle that it does not tolerate any illegal walkouts. Revised regulations banning companies from paying full-time union workers and allowing multiple unions in one workplace were passed, which will be enforced from July 2010 and July 2011, respectively. Instead of paying by a company as full time union workers, union members will be exempt from their company duties for some time to carry out union activities. Multiple unions in one workplace are obliged to form a single bargaining body to negotiate with a company. The number of labor-management disputes hit the lowest in 2008 at 130 cases and increased to 175 in 2009, which, although increased, is still a low level compared with the previous years. Government’s efforts to scrap unnecessary business regulations were paid off as the World Bank’s report “Doing Business 2010” ranked Korea 19th out of 183 countries in the business friendliness scale, up 4 notches from the previous year. Korea lifted limitations on giant corporations’ investment in other companies, by allowed non-financial companies to hold bank shares up to nine percent, eased regulations on metropolitan area development and military facilities protection zone development, and took market friendly measures in the service sector.
Nurturing future growth potential The government designated 17 future growth engines in three areas: 1) green technologies to generate and effectively use energy, 2) high-tech convergence industries such as IT and communications, new materials and nano-technology, and medical devices and biotechnology, and 3) value added services such as health care, education, content & software, and tourism. The government increased support for those industries not only through R&D budgets, tax incentives and deregulation but also by certifying new technologies to encourage private investment in the promising technologies.
Economic Bulletin
45
Economic News Briefing
Korea hosts the G-20 Deputy Finance Ministers’ and Deputy Governors’ meeting The G-20 Deputy Finance Ministers’ and Deputy Central Bank Governors’ Meeting was held at the Songdo, Incheon from February 27 to 28, marking the first G-20 meeting that Korea chaired. Some 150 participants included delegations from G-20 member nations and international organizations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the OECD. The co-chairs were Shin JaeYoon, the Deputy Minister for International Affairs of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, and Rhee Gwang-Ju, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Korea. The focus of the meeting was to analyze the current situation of the global economy and continue the follow-up of past G-20 agendas. On February 27, participants focused discussions on framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth, global financial safety nets, and international financial institutions’ reform. On February 28, discussions were centered on improving financial regulations, addressing problems of energy subsidies and financial inclusion, and financing for the fight against climate change.
46
March 2010
About 100 of the global business leaders will gather in Seoul to attend the “Seoul G-20 Business Summit” from November 10 to 11, 2010. The summit will cover four topics on the agenda: trade and investment, finance, green growth, and corporate social responsibility. It will be the first time for the world’s top business leaders to get together on the sidelines of a G-20 Summit, seeking economic cooperation between public and private sectors.
Amendments to the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (FSCMA) passed at the National Assembly Amendments to the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (FSCMA) were passed at a general meeting of the National Assembly on February 18, 2010. The revisions were made based on six proposals submitted by legislators to address various issues raised since FSCMA came into effect in February 2009. The amendments are expected to take effect in June 2010, three months after a public announcement. In regard with commercial papers (CPs), however, the new rule will be enforced immediately after public hearings.
Key changes
Purposes
A. Introducing PEFs and Mutual Fund for corporate financial restructuring (temporarily enforced for 3 years)
Facilitating corporate funding and corporate restructuring through capital markets
B. Allowing companies to issue CPs without issuing electronic notes C. Strengthening requirements for financial investment companies to add new business activities, while easing requirements for major shareholders D. Extending qualification requirements for financial investment companies’ executives to non-registered directors
Improving the quality of financial services through the extended scope of financial investment businesses, as well as enhancing public trust in financial investment companies
E. Imposing mandatory ceilings on fund sales/service fees
Providing better protections for financial
F. Conducting prior reviews for OTC derivatives trades
investors and consumers
With the intent to utilize the capital markets and gather private funds to revitalize corporate restructuring, a special exemption law will be enacted and enforced for three years on asset management of funds specially purposed for enhancing corporate financial structure. Under the revised law, private equity funds (PEFs) for corporate financial restructuring are able to invest in a company without management participation, but are to invest more than 50 percent of their assets into corporate restructuring related assets. In regard to Mutual Funds for corporate financial restructuring, the 10 percent rule, which limits investments in a single company to a maximum of 10 percent of the funds’ assets, is alleviated to supply sufficient liquidity to the SMEs. The funds are enabled to invest a maximum of 50 percent of its assets in newly issued stocks of SMEs and mid-size corporations.
Economic Bulletin
47
The amended law will remove the potential hurdle for the issuance and trade of CPs. Before revision, listed companies that are subject to external audits are required to issue electronic notes when issuing promissory notes. The previous requirement of issuing electronic notes, however, is waved for CPs. Under the revised law, requirements for financial companies to expand into new business activities are strengthened, while qualifications for major shareholders are eased. Also, required qualifications for executives of financial companies are extended to cover nonregistered directors. The new law stipulates that fund sales fees should not exceed 3 percent of paid-in capital and service fees should not surpass 1.5 percent of the fund’s asset in order to curb excessive fees taken by fund management companies and to protect investors. In addition, prior reviews for over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are introduced as an ex-ante regulations to assess risks involved in OTC derivatives. A review committee will be created within the Korea Financial Investment Association (KOFIA) to conduct a prior review of OTC derivatives newly introduced by each financial company.
Korea’s international investment position at the end of 2009 (preliminary) Korea’s overseas investment surged in 2009 from a year earlier on the back of a sharp rise in reserve assets as well as an increase in the appraised value of overseas investment, Bank of Korea said on February 26. As of the end of 2009, the outstanding amount of Korea’s investment abroad stood at US$604.7 billion, a rise of US$109.3 billion from the end of 2008. The outstanding amount of Korea’s external assets in debt instruments amounted to US$417.1 billion, up US$69.3 billion year-on-year. Meanwhile, the outstanding amount of foreign investment into Korea recorded US$752.8 billion at the end of 2009, expanding US$144.3 billion from the end of 2008. Korea’s external debt stood at US$401.9 billion, an increase of US$24.0 billion from a year earlier. The net international investment position (NIIP) as of the end of 2009 posted minus US$148.0 billion, down US$35.0 billion from the end of 2008. Net external assets in the form of debt instruments stood at US$15.2 billion, up US$45.3 billion year-on-year.
48
March 2010
International investment position
(US$ billion, end-period) 2007
2008
Sep 20091
20092
changes during year
596.8
495.4
577.6
604.7
109.3
78.0
31.4
74.8
97.9
107.8
115.6
17.7
10.6
7.1
68.1
88.4
96.6
103.5
15.1
8.1
7.0
6.7
9.5
11.2
12.1
2.6
2.4
0.1
2. Portfolio investment
158.6
75.1
98.2
102.4
27.3
-1.3
28.6
2.1. Equity securities
104.9
47.9
72.1
76.9
29.0
2.7
26.4
53.8
27.2
26.0
25.5
-1.8
-3.9
2.2
2.3
10.4
7.6
6.2
-4.1
-
-4.1
4. Other investment
98.9
110.8
109.8
110.5
-0.3
-0.4
0.1
4.1. Trade credits
15.2
14.2
16.2
15.5
1.4
0.9
0.5
A. Assets (Korea’s investment abroad) 1. Direct investment 1.1. Equity capital & reinvested earnings 1.2. Other capital
2.2. Debt securities 3. Financial derivatives
trade factors
non-trade factors
4.2. Loans
35.9
45.3
44.0
45.2
-0.2
-0.6
0.4
4.3. Currency & deposits
11.2
17.7
18.7
16.8
-0.9
0.3
-1.2
4.4. Others
36.7
33.7
30.9
33.1
-0.6
-1.0
0.4
5. Reserve assets
262.2
201.2
254.3
270.0
68.8
69.1
-0.3
<External assets in debt instruments>
420.6
347.9
400.4
417.1
69.3
67.2
2.1
Short-term
333.1
280.2
329.2
345.0
64.8
-
-
Long-term
87.5
67.7
71.1
72.2
4.5
-
-
B. Liabilities (Foreign investment in Korea)
826.3
608.5
735.3
752.8
144.3
39.7
104.6
1. Direct investment
122.0
94.7
107.4
110.8
16.1
1.5
14.6
118.2
90.2
102.2
105.2
15.0
0.8
14.2
3.8
4.5
5.1
5.6
1.1
0.7
0.4
456.7
251.0
373.4
390.0
139.1
49.4
89.7
1.1. Equity capital & reinvested earnings 1.2. Other capital 2. Portfolio investment 2.1. Equity securities
320.1
124.6
224.2
236.0
111.3
25.7
85.7
2.2. Debt securities
136.6
126.3
149.3
154.1
27.7
23.7
4.0
4.9
15.8
11.5
9.7
-6.0
-
-6.0
242.8
247.1
243.0
242.2
-4.9
-11.2
6.3
3. Financial derivatives 4. Other investment 4.1. Trade credits 4.2. Loans 4.3. Currency & deposits 4.4. Others <External debt>
58.0
70.0
65.4
63.4
-6.6
-12.1
5.5
162.9
142.7
143.8
150.5
7.8
9.0
-1.2
15.9
26.9
22.4
17.4
-9.5
-11.8
2.3
6.0
7.5
11.4
11.0
3.5
3.7
-0.2
383.2
377.9
397.4
401.9
24.0
13.2
10.7
Short-term
160.3
149.9
147.5
150.0
0.1
-
-
Long-term
222.9
228.1
249.9
252.0
23.9
-
-
-229.5
-113.1
-157.7
-148.0
-35.0
38.3
-73.2
37.4
-30.1
3.0
15.2
45.3
53.9
-8.7
C. Net IIP (C=A-B) <Net external assets in debt instruments> 1. Revised 2. Preliminary
Economic Bulletin
49
Domestic banks’ foreign currency liquidity conditions remain favorable Domestic banks’ short-term borrowing conditions have largely remained intact from the recent concerns over credit risk in Southern Europe. From January 1 to February 10 this year, the spread over Libor for 2 to 364 day borrowings averaged 25.3 basis points with an average maturity of 79.5 days, staying on a favorable track since the second half of last year. The market conditions for long-term borrowings have also continued to improve since 2009 although the CDS premium for Korean paper has recently risen due to credit default risk concerns in Southern Europe. The Libor spread for 1 year paper stayed benign albeit widening from 67 basis points in January to 86 basis points during the first ten days of February. The spread for 5-year paper narrowed recently to as low as 155 basis points recovering to the levels before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. As of February 10, 2010, domestic banks exceeded, on a preliminary basis, the recommended levels to secure foreign exchange soundness measured by the 3-month foreign-currency liquidity ratio as well as for the 7-day and 1-month maturity mismatch ratios.
Korea to boost software development The Korean government plans to inject one trillion won (US$870 million) to nurture the nation’s software industry by 2012 as a way to keep abreast of a new competition structure in the world’s software market. On February 4, the government announced four core strategies and 12 major policy tasks dedicated to software development for the first time. The government will foster fair trade practices in the software industry and strengthen the nation’s embedded software industry development. A government-run vocational training program will be set up to nurture software programming experts, with the cooperation of enterprises. The trainees will be given chances to work for related companies upon finishing their course. Further, a recruitment system will be launched to link 70,000 nationally reported software engineers and relevant companies. The government will also increase investment into software R&D to 670 billion won by 2013 from the current 370 billion won, and boost software development cooperation with India, the world’s second largest software exporter, supported by the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two countries. The government expects that the country’s software exports will increase to US$15 billion and 160,000 new jobs will be created by 2013, helped by the growth plan for the industry.
50
March 2010
Flexible working hour system to be spread The Korean government has set up the plan to spread flexible work scheme in the second national employment strategy meeting on February 18, 2010 so that more people can benefit from more job opportunities. One key way to boost Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s low employment rate is to promote the adoption of flexible working hours which will encourage women and the elderly to remain active in the labor market. Pilot programs for the flextime system will be launched in government offices and public corporations. After a trial period, the government will encourage the private sector to adopt the tested programs. Also the government will solidify institutional and political bases to facilitate flexible work system and make efforts to form an agreeable social environment for the flextime system. Relevant laws will be revised so that employers who offer flexible hours do not suffer disadvantages. In addition, the government will work to protect the welfare of employees who take alternative working arrangements. The exemption clause of national health and annuity insurances will be adjusted to meet the given standard (working less than 60 hours) of employment insurance.
Korea signs nuclear power plant deal with Turkey The Korea Electric Power Cooperation (KEPCO) and Turkish state power company Electrik Uretim Anonim Sirketi (EUAS) have reached an agreement of nuclear energy deal cooperation on March 10, 2010, said the Ministry of Knowledge Economy. According to the agreement, the two countries will carry out preliminary work to build a Korean-style nuclear power plant in Sinop, northern part of Turkey. The deal is meaningful in that Korea has secured a foothold to export nuclear power plants, APR1400, to Turkey. The Vice Minister Kim Young-hak of the Ministry of Knowledge Economy has met Turkeyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz and the Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss ways to form a cooperative tie-up with the signing of the joint declaration.
Economic Bulletin
51
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
53
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008P 2009P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
7.2 2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.2 0.2
-2.2 -5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.5 1.6
8.7 5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 3.1 -1.8
8.1 0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 1.6 1.3
Construction
Facilities
7.1 4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.7 -0.9
6.2 8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.1 3.1
7.3 -1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -2.0 -8.9
2002
I II III IV
6.6 7.0 6.8 8.1
2.3 -2.4 -1.1 -5.5
5.1 7.2 9.3 13.1
10.3 9.1 7.7 5.7
7.5 7.9 3.2 9.6
11.4 7.2 -1.5 9.4
2.6 7.7 9.8 9.1
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008P
I II III IV
5.5 4.3 3.1 -3.4
7.4 4.4 4.2 6.4
9.1 8.4 5.6 -9.1
3.9 2.6 2.0 -1.9
-0.5 0.6 1.8 -7.3
-1.9 -0.3 0.2 -5.6
1.5 1.1 4.3 -14.0
2009P
I II III IV
-4.2 -2.2 0.9 6.0
1.5 -1.2 3.1 2.8
-13.6 -7.3 1.6 12.5
-2.0 0.9 1.7 4.5
-8.1 -2.7 -0.8 6.4
1.6 3.7 2.7 3.9
-23.5 -15.9 -7.4 12.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
54
March 2010
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
55
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Production index
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
2008
119.8
3.4
118.3
2.6
125.5
7.1
116.1
3.6
2009 P
118.9
-0.18
116.3
-1.7
115.5
-8.0
118.4
2.0
121.9
11.2
119.8
9.3
123.6
8.4
114.0
6.8
2008
2009
2008
2009
2010
I II
125.5
9.2
123.0
6.8
133.2
16.3
116.0
4.3
III
119.6
5.9
118.0
5.5
132.0
17.1
116.4
3.4
IV
112.4
-10.9
112.4
-9.9
125.5
7.1
118.1
0.0
I
102.8
-15.7
101.9
-14.9
116.0
-6.1
113.7
-0.3
II
117.8
-6.1
115.9
-5.8
110.6
-17.0
118.8
2.4
III
124.7
4.3
120.5
2.1
113.3
-14.2
118.6
1.9
IVP
130.6
16.2
126.8
12.8
115.5
-8.0
122.3
3.6
1
126.3
12.0
121.9
10.5
123.9
4.5
114.3
8.0
2
111.1
10.9
109.9
8.1
124.3
7.5
109.6
6.6
3
128.3
10.9
127.6
9.2
123.6
8.4
118.1
6.0
4
126.5
11.2
124.8
8.9
124.6
11.4
116.1
6.1
5
126.5
9.2
123.7
6.6
128.7
12.7
116.7
4.1
6
123.5
7.3
120.5
4.9
133.1
16.2
115.1
2.7
7
123.4
8.9
121.6
8.0
132.4
14.5
117.4
4.7
8
116.2
2.2
114.7
2.0
132.1
14.3
114.2
1.2
9
119.1
6.7
117.6
6.3
132.0
17.1
117.5
4.2
10
126.7
-1.5
124.2
-1.7
134.7
17.1
118.9
3.1
11
110.3
-13.6
109.8
-12.9
133.2
15.9
113.3
-2.0
12
100.0
-18.4
103.2
-15.1
125.5
7.1
122.2
-1.0
1
93.8
-25.7
93.1
-23.6
123.7
-0.2
112.4
-1.7
2
99.8
-10.2
99.4
-9.6
117.6
-5.4
109.5
-0.1
3
114.7
-10.6
113.3
-11.2
115.9
-6.2
119.2
0.9
4
116.1
-8.2
114.7
-8.1
112.4
-9.8
119.9
3.3
5
115.0
-9.1
112.8
-8.8
111.4
-13.4
118.5
1.5
6
122.2
-1.1
120.1
-0.3
110.6
-16.9
118.0
2.5
7
124.3
0.7
120.0
-1.3
112.3
-15.2
118.1
0.6
8
117.4
1.0
113.5
-1.0
112.8
-14.6
115.5
1.1
9
132.3
11.1
127.9
8.8
113.3
-14.2
122.3
4.1
10
127.0
0.2
123.4
-0.6
112.6
-16.4
118.3
-0.5
11
130.3
18.1
126.8
15.5
113.7
-14.6
118.1
4.2
12P
134.3
34.3
130.2
26.2
115.5
-8.0
130.6
6.9
1P
128.4
36.9
123.3
32.4
118.9
-3.9
117.6
4.6
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
March 2010
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
2008
115.3
5.1
97.2
-3.2
77.5
2009 P
118.9
3.1
93.5
-3.8
74.6
113.8
5.9
99.3
2.2
81.5
2008
2009
I II
115.1
6.3
103.1
0.5
80.8
III
116.0
5.3
95.5
-0.7
78.3
IV
116.4
3.4
91.1
-13.6
69.6
I
116.8
2.6
81.4
-18.0
66.9
II
117.8
2.3
94.6
-8.2
74.2
III
119.7
3.2
97.8
2.4
78.8
IVP
121.1
4.0
100.3
10.1
78.4
2008 1
113.8
6.2
103.2
3.4
82.1
2
113.8
5.9
89.5
1.5
80.6
3
113.9
5.8
105.1
1.4
81.7
4
114.3
5.9
104.7
3.2
82.1
5
115.4
6.7
103.3
-0.6
80.1
6
115.7
6.2
101.2
-1.3
80.1
7
115.7
5.5
99.8
1.5
79.3
8
116.0
5.3
92.2
-4.6
78.3
9
116.2
4.9
94.5
0.7
77.3
10
116.3
3.6
104.1
-4.8
76.9
11
116.3
3.4
89.4
-16.8
69.1
12
116.7
3.3
79.7
-20.1
62.8
2009 1
116.8
2.6
73.5
-28.8
62.8
2
116.7
2.5
79.5
-11.2
67.7
3
117.0
2.7
91.1
-13.3
70.3
4
117.6
2.9
93.4
-10.8
72.4
5
117.6
1.9
92.6
-10.4
73.6
6
118.3
2.2
97.9
-3.3
76.6
7
119.1
2.9
98.6
-1.2
78.7
8
119.5
3.0
91.1
-1.2
77.7
9
120.4
3.6
103.6
9.6
79.9
10
120.6
3.7
99.1
-4.8
77.3
11
120.8
3.9
100.6
12.5
78.2
12P
121.9
4.5
101.3
27.1
79.7
2010 1P
122.0
4.5
97.3
32.4
78.8
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100) Consumer goods sales index
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
2008
110.6
1.1
126.4
1.6
104.9
-3.0
110.0
1.4
2009 P
113.5
2.6
136.7
8.1
105.2
0.3
111.3
1.2
111.5
4.5
129.9
8.7
103.6
4.0
109.2
2.3
2008
2009
I Il
111.7
2.9
134.1
8.0
107.2
-2.7
108.8
1.3
III
108.8
1.4
125.8
-0.1
94.0
0.3
112.3
1.5
IV
110.4
-4.2
115.7
-9.6
115.0
-10.7
109.5
0.2
I
106.3
-4.7
114.4
-11.9
102.0
-1.5
107.7
-1.4
II
113.4
1.5
141.8
5.7
106.6
-0.6
109.3
0.5
III
111.9
2.8
135.7
7.9
93.3
-0.7
114.4
1.9
IVP
122.3
10.8
154.9
33.9
118.9
3.4
114.0
4.1
2008 1
111.7
5.4
128.3
8.1
104.4
6.7
108.8
4.3
2
107.3
3.5
117.8
6.1
97.8
7.2
108.4
0.6
3
115.4
4.6
143.6
11.4
108.5
-1.3
110.5
2.2
4
113.4
6.3
139.1
15.6
108.5
-2.8
109.5
4.5
5
115.1
3.3
136.0
7.9
112.1
-3.7
112.3
2.0
6
106.5
-0.7
127.1
0.6
100.9
-1.8
104.5
-2.7
7
109.6
4.2
140.7
7.9
97.6
3.5
106.1
1.0
8
106.2
2.2
121.5
-4.7
86.2
8.8
112.0
2.0
9
110.7
-1.8
115.2
-3.8
98.1
-8.9
118.8
1.6
10
109.7
-3.3
123.9
-0.5
111.6
-10.1
106.6
-2.2
11
108.9
-4.6
108.9
-15.3
120.3
-7.7
107.7
1.2
12
112.7
-4.8
114.4
-12.5
113.1
-14.3
114.3
1.5
2009 1
108.5
-2.9
103.9
-19.0
102.6
-1.7
114.8
5.5
2
100.9
-6.0
115.8
-1.7
96.1
-1.7
99.0
-8.7
3
109.4
-5.2
123.6
-13.9
107.4
-1.0
109.2
-1.2
4
108.6
-4.2
123.7
-11.1
108.3
-0.2
107.1
-2.2
5
117.0
1.7
144.0
5.9
112.1
0.0
113.0
0.6
6
114.6
7.6
157.8
24.2
99.4
-1.5
107.8
3.2
7
110.9
1.2
138.3
-1.7
94.3
-3.4
111.1
4.7
8
106.7
0.5
122.7
1.0
85.6
-0.7
112.9
0.8
9
118.1
6.7
146.0
26.7
100.1
2.0
119.1
0.3
10
120.4
9.8
144.7
16.8
114.9
3.0
116.8
9.6
11
119.5
9.7
153.2
40.7
120.7
0.3
109.3
1.5
12P
127.0
12.7
166.8
45.8
121.2
7.2
116.0
1.5
2010 1P
116.0
6.9
145.3
39.8
107.9
5.2
108.8
-5.2
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
March 2010
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Period
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
2008
114.8
1.6
126.8
1.8
109.9
1.4
2009 P
115.5
0.6
133.9
5.6
108.1
-1.6
I
117.6
5.9
133.7
11.6
111.1
3.3
-
II
115.8
4.3
136.8
11.7
107.4
0.9
-
2008
2009
-
III
114.0
2.4
123.5
0.5
110.1
3.2
-
IV
112.1
-5.6
114.8
-13.6
111.0
-1.8
-
I
106.8
-9.2
113.0
-15.5
104.3
-6.1
II
114.1
-1.5
138.3
1.1
104.5
-2.7
III
118.9
4.3
138.3
12.0
111.1
0.9
IV P
122.4
9.2
147.1
28.1
112.5
1.4
2008 1
125.4
9.1
132.6
12.4
122.5
7.8
-
2
106.5
2.1
123.1
8.3
99.8
-0.7
-
3
120.6
5.7
144.2
12.8
111.1
2.3
-
4
119.8
7.3
144.2
20.3
110.1
1.7
-
5
115.7
2.4
136.9
9.3
107.2
-0.7
-
6
111.7
2.9
128.5
5.0
105.0
2.0
-
7
117.8
7.4
134.3
8.0
111.1
6.9
84
8
111.7
-1.1
118.6
-5.1
108.9
0.7
96
9
112.0
0.6
116.1
-2.8
110.3
2.1
96
10
119.7
-1.6
127.7
-6.4
116.6
0.8
88
11
107.0
-9.3
111.0
-15.8
105.4
-6.2
84
12
109.1
-6.3
104.4
-19.8
111.0
0.1
81
2009 1
106.4
-15.2
98.6
-25.6
109.5
-10.6
84
2
102.7
-3.6
115.1
-6.5
97.7
-2.1
85
3
110.9
-8.0
124.4
-13.7
105.6
-5.0
84
4
111.3
-7.1
119.1
-17.4
108.2
-1.7
98
5
112.7
-2.6
138.9
1.5
102.2
-4.7
105
6
118.2
5.8
156.1
21.5
103.0
-1.9
106
7
118.1
0.3
144.3
7.4
107.7
-3.1
109
8
110.0
-1.5
124.6
5.1
104.2
-4.3
114
9
128.2
14.5
145.0
24.9
121.5
10.2
114
10
120.2
0.4
138.8
8.7
112.7
-3.3
117
11
118.8
11.0
146.0
31.5
107.9
2.4
113
12
128.2P
17.5P
156.1P
49.5P
117.0P
5.4P
113
2010 1
121.1P
13.8P
135.4P
37.3P
115.4P
5.4P
113
-
111
2
-
-
-
-
-
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
20,718
3,735
16,983
9,111
105.4
110.4
I ll III IVP
5,033 4,942 5,591 5,152
932 696 1,345 763
4,101 4,246 4,246 4,389
1,998 2,212 2,321 2,586
93.9 106.3 103.8 117.7
98.7 112.7 107.5 122.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
1,575 1,682 1,775 1,457 1,377 2,108 2,494 1,340 1,757 1,541 1,942 1,669
232 518 181 91 96 508 1,073 71 200 84 433 246
1,344 1,164 1,594 1,366 1,280 1,600 1,421 1,268 1,557 1,458 1,509 1,422
714 531 746 678 658 883 754 653 914 836 941 810
86.3 92.8 102.5 100.7 103.2 115.1 97.8 97.5 116.2 108.2 116.7 128.2
85.2 97.8 113.1 110.9 104.2 123.0 107.5 98.2 116.8 109.1 116.3 142.3
2010 1P
1,754
169
1,585
1,011
103.9
111.7
2009P 2009
Manufacturing
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009 P
-11.8
61.7
-19.9
-27.2
-8.0
-5.2
I ll III IVP
-35.5 -17.7 3.4 20.0
150.8 29.9 280.2 -27.2
-44.8 -22.3 -16.0 35.2
-59.1 -27.6 -19.4 51.5
-17.9 -12.9 -10.0 10.2
-12.7 -8.0 -6.4 6.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
-49.1 -27.5 -25.5 -27.4 -25.4 -2.0 6.1 -19.6 26.5 -7.9 56.2 21.2
56.5 661.0 16.8 -4.1 8.9 44.5 498.5 -17.4 127.5 -79.0 110.1 -44.5
-54.4 -48.3 -28.4 -28.5 -27.1 -11.1 -34.6 -19.7 19.7 14.3 45.5 52.4
-64.6 -65.8 -42.6 -39.1 -26.6 -16.6 -38.1 -30.7 27.3 16.5 74.6 79.5
-21.1 -12.0 -20.2 -18.7 -16.2 -3.4 -18.8 -15.4 5.4 -0.4 10.2 21.1
-20.7 -6.1 -11.4 -9.2 -15.8 1.1 -10.9 -9.9 1.6 -5.3 4.0 20.1
2010 1P
11.3
-27.1
18.0
41.5
20.4
31.1
2009
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
March 2010
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
32,393
52,562
107,011
50,771
51,914
Public
89,863
2009 P
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completed (total)
2009
I ll III IVP
19,130 23,628 22,106 25,000
6,570 8,665 7,875 9,284
11,544 13,577 13,029 14,412
18,104 26,392 19,719 42,795
9,219 17,747 8,826 14,980
8,263 7,760 9,971 25,920
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
6,063 6,102 6,964 7,433 7,227 8,971 6,988 6,719 8,398 7,301 8,060 9,639
2,150 2,039 2,381 2,636 2,597 3,431 2,362 2,427 3,085 2,585 2,780 3,919
3,623 3,751 4,170 4,416 4,208 4,953 4,252 3,929 4,848 4,354 4,854 5,204
5,674 4,949 7,481 7,513 7,151 11,728 6,009 4,660 9,050 10,570 14,538 17,688
2,679 2,758 3,782 5,752 4,434 7,561 3,314 1,756 3,756 4,700 5,101 5,179
2,728 2,065 3,471 1,488 2,596 3,677 2,398 2,807 4,766 5,616 8,853 11,451
2010
1P
6,600
2,398
3,900
6,643
2,286
4,074
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009 P
3.3
21.2
-5.7
3.0
60.9
-21.9
2009
I ll III IVP
4.3 6.4 -1.2 3.7
24.5 31.9 21.3 10.7
-5.3 -5.9 -11.8 0.4
-12.0 -1.1 7.6 11.6
33.1 182.9 78.9 11.6
-37.3 -60.2 -14.3 17.3
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
-0.5 11.2 3.1 5.5 -1.6 14.6 -2.8 -8.2 6.8 -5.9 3.2 12.9
25.2 34.2 16.7 34.0 16.8 44.4 16.6 14.1 31.9 3.5 8.1 18.3
-11.4 1.0 -5.0 -5.2 -11.4 -1.3 -11.6 -18.9 -5.4 -10.1 1.7 9.8
0.3 -19.0 -14.9 -10.7 -17.9 22.7 -1.8 -27.0 55.3 28.8 78.8 -19.6
64.4 39.7 13.8 234.8 70.5 286.7 135.8 6.7 99.6 90.8 63.3 -33.9
-31.2 -47.3 -34.5 -77.1 -55.5 -48.9 -42.7 -36.6 57.4 16.2 92.5 -9.6
2010
1P
8.9
11.6
7.6
17.1
-14.7
49.4
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2007 1
109.1
5.3
110.9
101.2
85.6
96.5
2
110.0
5.8
111.3
101.2
87.5
93.4
3
110.4
5.8
111.9
101.3
109.4
112.3
4
111.1
6.0
112.5
101.4
105.8
107.7
5
111.4
5.8
113.1
101.5
104.1
110.9
6
112.3
6.2
113.9
101.8
100.2
105.6
7
113.3
6.7
114.8
102.1
95.8
99.3
8
114.0
7.0
115.5
102.4
94.4
102.5
9
114.7
7.1
115.7
102.1
101.5
111.8
10
115.4
7.2
116.3
102.2
108.3
116.3
11
116.2
7.4
117.0
102.4
106.0
112.4
12
116.6
7.2
118.2
103.0
98.9
103.4
2008 1
116.3
6.3
119.3
103.6
95.2
103.0
2
115.6
5.0
119.6
103.3
95.6
94.8
3
115.2
3.9
120.1
103.3
101.1
102.1
4
115.1
3.2
120.0
102.8
101.7
98.1
5
115.1
2.6
120.3
102.6
98.1
104.7
6
114.6
1.5
120.1
102.0
79.1
95.3
7
114.0
0.5
120.3
101.8
80.8
83.2
8
113.8
-0.1
120.6
101.6
83.1
80.8
9
113.6
-0.7
120.9
101.5
76.8
98.3
10
112.7
-1.8
120.8
101.0
64.6
84.9
11
111.1
-3.4
119.3
99.2
53.7
63.7
12
110.4
-4.2
116.6
96.6
52.4
55.0
2009 1
110.8
-3.9
114.5
94.4
58.1
52.0
2
112.2
-2.6
114.6
94.2
62.4
66.0
3
113.5
-1.4
116.1
94.9
89.0
76.1
4
115.4
0.4
117.9
96.1
93.7
86.7
5
117.6
2.7
119.0
96.5
100.9
103.8
6
120.3
5.5
121.0
97.8
96.6
100.2
7
122.1
7.6
122.3
98.4
98.5
98.7
8
123.2
8.8
123.2
98.7
96.0
99.8
9
123.9
9.6
123.9
98.9
110.5
117.0
10
124.7
10.3
124.5
98.9
107.5
116.5
11
126.1
11.3
125.2
99.1
103.8
109.0
12
127.0
11.6
125.9
99.1
104.8
105.9
2010 1
127.4
11.3
127.0
99.6
99.2
103.1
2
-
-
-
-
98.7
102.3
3
-
-
-
-
-
116.2
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
62
March 2010
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Current balance
Period
Goods trade balance
Exports
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
2008
-5,776.3
5,669.1
422,007.3
435,274.7
-16,671.5
5,900.0
-673.9
2009 P
42,667.6
56,127.6
363,533.6
323,084.5
-17,202.7
4,553.6
-810.9
-4,866.4
-1,375.4
99,444.5
106,052.9
-4,936.9
1,979.7
-533.8
2008
2009P
I II
-411.5
5,526.4
114,492.0
114,792.8
-4,460.5
-521.1
-956.3
III
-8,329.7
-3,230.5
115,000.1
122,901.0
-5,837.8
1,503.3
-764.7
IV
7,831.3
4,748.6
93,070.6
91,528.0
-1,436.3
2,938.1
1,580.9
I
8,618.2
8,308.8
74,421.4
71,417.5
-1,926.2
922.3
1,313.3
II
13,097.4
17,576.0
90,360.4
73,970.2
-4,167.7
292.7
-603.6
III
10,395.5
14,702.5
94,780.5
84,845.1
-5,334.5
1,690.7
-663.2
IV
10,556.5
15,540.3
103,971.3
92,851.8
-5,774.3
1,647.9
-857.4
1
-2,343.6
-935.1
32,274.6
36,318.0
-1,957.3
840.3
-291.5
2
-2,372.0
-524.2
31,178.2
32,624.3
-2,205.7
792.3
-434.4
3
-150.8
83.9
35,991.8
37,110.6
-773.9
347.1
192.1
4
-1,578.8
1,733.1
37,850.2
38,260.4
-1,072.9
-1,914.2
-324.8
5
-566.7
367.0
39,383.2
38,704.5
-1,215.3
563.5
-281.9
6
1,734.0
3,426.3
37,258.6
37,827.9
-2,172.3
829.6
-349.6
7
-2,433.9
487.2
40,961.2
42,952.5
-2,719.6
350.0
-551.5
8
-4,676.2
-2,926.8
36,610.6
40,420.4
-1,962.9
427.4
-213.9
9
-1,219.6
-790.9
37,428.3
39,528.1
-1,155.3
725.9
0.7
10
4,644.8
2,102.2
37,111.1
36,098.8
180.5
1,590.6
771.5
11
2,408.2
1,230.4
28,841.6
28,853.6
-70.0
757.4
490.4
12
778.3
1,416.0
27,117.9
26,575.6
-1,546.8
590.1
319.0
2009P 1
-1,612.3
-1,762.2
21,133.4
24,898.8
-710.5
596.4
264.0
2
3,585.8
3,100.1
25,397.1
22,598.1
-540.4
510.5
515.6
3
6,644.7
6,970.9
27,890.8
23,920.6
-675.3
-184.6
533.7
4
4,274.1
6,105.2
30,326.5
24,873.8
-1,117.3
-803.1
89.3
5
3,442.6
4,872.3
27,823.8
23,407.0
-1,524.4
389.6
-294.9
6
5,380.7
6,598.5
32,210.0
25,689.3
-1,526.0
706.2
-398.0
7
4,419.5
6,114.5
31,908.5
27,679.8
-1,898.0
511.1
-308.1
8
1,922.1
3,319.5
28,949.6
27,408.2
-1,803.4
617.7
-211.7
9
4,053.9
5,268.5
33,922.4
29,757.1
-1,633.1
561.9
-143.4
10
4,757.3
5,675.1
33,970.0
30,396.5
-1,312.6
559.4
-164.6
11
4,277.7
5,842.3
33,991.6
29,534.7
-1,662.7
390.0
-291.9
12
1,521.5
4,022.9
36,009.6
32,920.5
-2,799.0
698.5
-400.9
2010P 1
-447.5
1,548.6
31,006.9
31,468.1
-2,164.3
465.4
-297.2
2008
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
63
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
2008
-50,083.6
2009P
26,447.9 1,990.3
2008
I
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
-15,632.6
-2,405.6
-14,769.9
-17,384.8
109.3
56,446.0
-586.1
-9,065.8
50,681.6
-5,538.1
-10,817.1
1,187.3
-69,061.1
-54.4
-5,781.5
-4,401.5
-1,249.5
13,533.2
-110.4
3,850.0
-973.9
ll
-3,160.7
-4,140.0
8,356.7
-1,240.7
-5,909.9
-226.8
5,717.7
-2,145.5
III
-6,286.4
-3,661.1
-9,421.3
-3,550.4
10,564.1
-217.7
12,883.1
1,733.0
IV
-42,626.8
-2,050.0
3,060.5
-8,729.3
-35,572.2
664.2
33,995.2
800.3
2009P I
-1,399.2
-2,045.4
3,532.3
-4,893.6
1,282.5
725.0
-9,017.4
1,798.4
II
8,682.0
-172.1
16,740.2
-614.9
-7,566.0
294.8
-19,541.8
-2,237.6
III
14,399.1
-2,137.6
19,914.7
-1,296.5
-2,258.0
176.5
-23,886.9
-907.7
IV
4,766.0
-4,710.7
10,494.4
1,266.9
-2,275.6
-9.0
-16,615.0
1,292.5
2008 1
1,171.9
-3,002.7
-949.8
-130.4
5,313.5
-58.7
1,436.1
-264.4
2
202.3
-90.9
-3,144.5
-298.1
3,750.7
-14.9
1,703.1
466.6
3
616.1
-2,687.9
-307.2
-821.0
4,469.0
-36.8
710.8
-1,176.1
4
-835.4
-2,561.0
4,093.1
-560.3
-1,720.5
-86.7
2,411.3
2.9
5
-113.8
-683.4
9,168.1
-627.6
-7,921.8
-49.1
2,264.6
-1,584.1
6
-2,211.5
-895.6
-4,904.5
-52.8
3,732.4
-91.0
1,041.8
-564.3
7
-6,014.3
-1,465.4
-7,025.3
-551.2
3,204.5
-176.9
9,171.4
-723.2
8
5,113.2
-1,428.7
-343.4
-69.3
7,062.4
-107.8
-1,215.2
778.2
9
-5,385.3
-767.0
-2,052.6
-2,929.9
297.2
67.0
4,926.9
1,678.0
10
-23,462.3
-978.9
5,004.0
-3,888.3
-23,952.6
353.5
19,988.1
-1,170.6
11
-13,488.5
-615.2
-2,524.0
-1,347.1
-9,215.7
213.5
10,904.2
176.1
12
-5,676.0
-455.9
580.5
-3,493.9
-2,403.9
97.2
3,102.9
1,794.8
2009P 1
4,655.2
-538.7
5,678.8
-248.5
-379.9
143.5
-4,488.6
1,445.7
2
-3,216.5
-785.8
161.4
-2,312.2
-609.6
338.7
-1,260.0
890.7
3
-2,837.9
-720.9
-2,307.9
-2,323.9
2,272.0
242.8
-3,268.8
-538.0
4
2,193.3
112.4
7,133.0
-679.8
-4,532.5
160.2
-5,444.1
-1,023.3
5
6,707.8
-574.5
4,263.5
1,341.1
1,586.6
91.1
-10,248.6
98.2
6
-219.1
290.0
5,343.7
-1,276.2
-4,620.1
43.5
-3,849.1
-1,312.5
7
2,200.5
-1,323.9
7,940.1
-272.7
-4,379.0
236.0
-5,573.6
-1,046.4
8
5,296.9
-276.1
4,063.5
-721.0
2,177.0
53.5
-7,095.2
-123.8
9
6,901.7
-537.6
7,911.1
-302.8
-56.0
-113.0
-11,218.1
262.5
10
1,582.9
-509.0
6,130.5
-572.9
-3,477.9
12.2
-7,966.2
1,626.0
11
1,544.2
-2,835.0
3,389.4
848.7
193.9
-52.8
-5,637.4
-184.5
12
1,638.9
-1,366.7
974.5
991.1
1,008.4
31.6
-3,011.4
-149.0
2010P 1
5,074.6
-1,679.9
104.6
319.8
6,400.1
-70.0
-5,250.9
623.8
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
March 2010
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2008 2009
109.7 112.8
109.9 113.6
109.6 112.2
108.6 112.5
111.1 110.9
112.5 111.9
109.5 109.2
143.7 137.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.8 107.2 108.2 108.8 109.7 110.4 111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7
106.3 106.6 107.1 108.2 110.0 111.5 112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2
107.1 107.5 108.9 109.2 109.5 109.7 110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0
105.6 106.0 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9
104.7 105.7 107.1 109.4 111.5 113.3 115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9
104.4 105.7 107.5 110.3 113.1 115.5 118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9
93.7 94.8 100.8 103.3 110.7 112.0 112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0
118.4 121.6 131.5 136.5 151.1 155.2 156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2
114.2 114.6
115.6 116.1
113.3 113.6
113.4 113.6 Y-o-Y change (%)
112.7 113.0
113.9 114.5
103.5 104.7
136.9 137.6
2008 2009
4.7 2.8
6.2 3.4
3.7 2.4
4.2 3.6
8.6 -0.2
10.8 -0.5
21.8 -0.2
36.2 -4.1
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.9 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
4.8 4.2 4.7 5.3 7.0 8.6 9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
2.8 2.8 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
4.2 5.1 6.0 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
4.8 6.1 7.3 9.3 11.3 13.6 16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
5.8 7.6 13.4 15.7 24.0 25.2 25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
21.2 22.2 28.0 31.3 44.6 49.0 50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2
3.1 2.7
4.7 3.6
2.0 2.2
2.1 1.9
2.8 2.4
3.2 2.7
-6.9 -10.2
-0.9 -4.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2008 2009
24,347 24,394
23,577 23,506
3,963 3,836
17,906 17,998
3.2 3.6
16,206 16,454
9,007 9,390
5,079 5,101
2,121 1,963
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,738 23,703 24,114 24,495 24,692 24,727 24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
22,964 22,884 23,305 23,711 23,939 23,963 23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
4,022 4,017 3,999 4,001 3,987 3,993 3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
17,651 17,510 17,732 17,929 18,046 18,067 18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,032 15,836 15,993 16,258 16,405 16,385 16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
8,815 8,804 8,898 8,894 9,010 9,039 9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,115 5,055 5,023 5,127 5,165 5,132 5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,102 1,977 2,073 2,238 2,231 2,214 2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2
24,082 24,035
22,865 22,867
3,924 3,886
17,796 5.0 17,762 4.9 Y-o-Y change (%)
16,297 16,282
9,712 9,786
4,860 4,838
1,725 1,657
2008 2009
0.5 0.2
0.6 -0.3
-1.3 -3.2
1.3 0.5
-
1.5 1.5
4.5 4.3
-1.8 0.4
-2.6 -7.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-
2.4 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
5.2 4.8 5.5 5.2 5.6 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.2 -1.4 -3.2 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
0.2 -1.9 -1.8 -1.7 -3.2 -3.3 -2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2
1.6 1.6
0.0 0.5
0.8 1.2
0.8 1.3
-
1.5 2.1
6.7 6.4
-2.4 -0.5
-12.4 -12.6
Source: Statistics Korea
66
March 2010
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2
2.0 2.0
2.9 2.9
5.4 5.3
4.3 4.2
4.8 4.8
1,602.43 1,594.58
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2008 2009
52,272.8 61,739.6
307,273.6 357,344.1
1,367,713.4 1,508,550.4
1,794,841.2 1,937,336.0
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
50,260.5 52,563.7 49,571.5 50,683.6 50,502.5 51,274.4 50,600.6 51,981.0 53,303.9 52,976.5 54,254.5 59,300.7
305,868.0 304,580.7 299,792.8 298,474.4 304,239.8 305,514.3 306,584.4 304,538.7 307,067.8 310,565.5 316,330.9 323,725.9
1,286,407.8 1,309,161.7 1,324,032.7 1,339,434.9 1,356,612.9 1,369,728.1 1,378,914.3 1,386,101.1 1,395,719.2 1,403,984.2 1,426,165.1 1,436,298.3
1,711,196.8 1,726,407.2 1,743,481.7 1,762,945.3 1,782,721.1 1,798,774.9 1,801,540.6 1,810,535.1 1,831,313.4 1,845,717.7 1,859,348.8 1,864,111.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,071.5 1,897,923.7 1,913,084.5 1,925,418.1 1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1
65,054.7
381,218.2
1,574,215.8
2,019,563.5
14.3 10.3
11.9 7.9
2008 2009
7.7 18.1
Y-o-Y change (%) -1.8 16.3
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 6.2 1.3 6.7 5.0 7.0 6.5 8.7 9.1 7.3 11.1 17.8
-13.5 -13.2 -10.6 -2.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.5 5.2
12.5 13.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.1
11.4 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.1 12.7 12.1 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1
1.6
15.0
9.3
8.1
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
68
March 2010
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2008 2009
1,257.5 1,167.6
1,102.6 1,276.4
1,393.9 1,262.8
1,076.6 1,363.1
1,776.2 1,674.3
1,606.8 1,774.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
943.9 937.3 991.7 999.7 1,031.4 1,043.4 1,008.5 1,081.8 1,187.7 1,291.4 1,482.7 1,257.5
942.4 944.7 979.9 986.7 1,036.7 1,029.3 1,019.1 1,041.5 1,130.4 1,326.9 1,390.1 1,373.8
889.1 889.7 1,000.2 961.8 977.0 981.8 932.9 987.9 1,144.2 1,306.0 1,553.8 1,393.9
872.9 880.6 972.3 962.4 994.2 963.0 954.2 953.0 1,060.6 1,327.1 1,435.1 1,503.3
1,402.3 1,423.5 1,565.0 1,556.2 1,599.6 1,647.1 1,571.0 1,590.3 1,707.2 1,664.4 1,912.6 1,776.2
1,386.2 1,395.4 1,519.5 1,555.1 1,614.6 1,601.7 1,606.4 1,561.6 1,627.6 1,765.3 1,768.9 1,846.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2
1,156.5 1,158.4
1,138.8 1,157.1
1,287.0 1,299.3
1,248.3 1,281.7
1,614.6 1,569.2
1,627.5 1,584.5
2008 2009
34.0 -7.1
18.7 15.8
67.3 -9.4
36.3 26.6
28.6 -5.7
26.2 10.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 -0.1 5.5 7.6 10.9 12.6 9.2 15.1 29.0 42.3 59.5 34.0
0.6 0.8 3.9 5.9 11.7 10.9 10.9 11.5 21.2 44.9 51.6 47.7
15.0 12.1 25.5 23.6 27.8 30.5 20.4 22.0 43.6 65.1 83.6 67.3
12.2 13.4 20.8 22.8 29.4 27.2 26.3 19.2 30.8 67.8 73.7 81.5
14.9 14.6 24.8 22.8 28.1 32.2 24.0 24.0 31.0 27.1 39.4 28.6
13.9 13.9 21.6 23.6 28.7 28.7 27.5 22.7 26.1 35.5 31.5 36.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2
-15.5 -23.6
-15.4 -19.1
-15.4 -15.7
-16.1 -17.1
-8.7 -18.7
-9.3 -13.4
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
69
Editor-in-Chief Park, Cheol-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Kim, Sun-Young (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr