Vol. 32 | No. 10
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues 2011 Budget plan
42
Economic News Briefing
48
Statistical Appendices
53
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview The Korean economy posted a steady recovery although temporary factors such as the summer vacation and bad weather negatively affected real economic indicators. Mining and manufacturing production in August fell 1.0 percent month-on-month due to the summer vacation and production facilities under repair, while rising 17.1 percent year-onyear. Service output lost 0.2 percent month-on-month affected by declining professional, scientific & technical services, while gaining 4.2 percent year-on-year. Consumer goods sales, despite a year-on-year increase of 9.3 percent, dropped 0.7 percent month-on-month in August, as bad weather conditions adversely influenced non-durable and semi-durable goods sales. In August facilities investment, thanks to increasing machinery investment, jumped 6.2 percent month-on-month and 39.8 percent year-on-year. Construction completed, while improving 3.0 percent year-on-year, shed 5.5 percent month-on-month, with sluggish housing markets and reduced fiscal expenditures bringing pressure to the index. Exports in September, led by semiconductors and petroleum products, rose 17.2 percent year-on-year. Imports went up 16.7 percent from a year earlier, as those of raw materials and capital goods increased. The total number of workers hired in August gained 386,000 year-on-year, led by manufacturing and construction industries. The employment rate (seasonally adjusted) posted 59.0 percent, adding 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) registered 3.4 percent, shedding 0.3 percentage points. The consumer price in September posted a year-on-year increase of 3.6 percent, as the prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products soared affected by unusual weather conditions and heavy rainfall. However, core consumer prices, which exclude petroleum and agricultural products, continued to show a modest increase of 1.9 percent. In September, stock prices rose and foreign exchange rates fell, as worries over a possibile global economic slowdown eased and expectations of the Fed’s quantitative easing measures led to dollar depreciation. Housing prices in September continued to fall in the metropolitan area, while rental prices increased due to the autumn moving season and a wait-and-see attitude held by potential home buyers. To sum up, although the global economy continues a steady recovery, external uncertainties still exist as major economies may slow down, foreign exchange rates become increasingly volatile, and European fiscal problems linger. The Korean government will continue macroeconomic policies which facilitate sustainable growth and employment, while keeping away inflation expectations amid the price rise caused by recent bad weather conditions. On the other hand, the government will renew its efforts to examine risk factors of each industry and reform the economy so that external changes may influence the economy to a minimum, while keeping trying to create more jobs for vulnerable groups, encourage cooperation between large conglomerates and small- and medium-sized enterprises, both of which are expected to improve the real economy. Economic Bulletin
3
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) increased 0.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Private consumption2 (Seasonally adjusted)3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2009
2010 1
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
1.3
-3.6
0.2
-4.4
-1.0
0.7
5.8
6.3
3.7
-
-4.5
-
0.3
3.3
1.7
0.4
0.7
0.8
3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales in August, despite a rise in durable goods sales, dropped 0.7 percent month-on-month, as the sales of semi-durable and non-durable goods decreased. On a month-on-month basis, durable goods sales rose 3.1 percent led by automobile sales which registered a 11.5 percent increase, while semi-durable and non-durable goods sales fell 2.2 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, the index increased 9.3 percent, as the sales of durable goods such as automobiles and home electronics, semi-durable goods such as clothing, and nondurable goods such as food & beverages all improved. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
2010 1
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug
Consumer goods sales
1.1
2.6
-4.7
1.5
2.8
10.8
9.9
4.9
8.7
9.3
(Seasonally adjusted)
-
-
1.0
5.1
0.3
4.1
0.5
0.0
1.3
-0.7
- Durable goods
2
3
ÂĄâ „Automobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods
5
4
1.6
8.1
-11.9
5.7
7.9
33.9
29.5
5.4
18.4
25.8
-3.5
21.8
-20.6
20.1
24.1
76.9
48.6
-2.1
13.9
37.7
-3.0
0.3
-1.5
-0.6
-0.7
3.4
2.7
6.9
9.4
4.3
1.4
1.2
-1.4
0.5
1.9
4.1
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.1
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at specialized retailers increased at a faster pace year-on-year, while those at department stores and large discounters decelerated the rise. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug
1.2
3.3
-0.8
0.4
4.2
9.1
9.0
10.4
10.9
8.5
2.5
-2.0
-4.4
-2.9
-3.4
3.2
5.9
3.7
8.2
3.5
-1.8
2.9
-6.6
2.6
3.5
12.6
9.7
1.7
7.1
10.7
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
October 2010
2010 1
2009
2008
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2010 posted a quarter-onquarter increase of 9.1 percent and a year-on-year gain of 30.2 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
- Transportation equipment
20101
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
-1.0
2.0
5.3
-13.3
-9.1
-23.1
-17.3
-7.0
13.3
29.9
30.2
-
1.2
-1.0
-13.9
-
-10.5
9.0
10.8
5.3
2.4
9.1
-1.8
0.9
8.0
-14.4
-13.0
-23.2
-21.5
-14.8
10.0
32.5
38.7
1.8
5.9
-3.8
-9.8
4.7
-22.6
-2.9
22.9
24.2
19.4
4.8
3
- Machinery
2009
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in August rose 6.2 percent month-on-month or 39.8 percent year-on-year on the back of strong machinery investments, in particular those for semiconductor manufacturing. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Facility investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Machinery - Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders - Public - Private
2009
2010 1
Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
-3.0
-8.0
-12.9
-10.0
10.2
25.5
24.5
23.9
33.7
39.8
-
-
5.6
2.4
13.9
1.4
6.0
8.1
-3.0
6.2
-4.2
-12.9
-18.9
-17.0
8.8
29.3
32.2
31.5
41.9
51.6
2.1
12.0
11.8
20.0
15.5
11.9
0.0
0.4
9.4
-1.1
-13.8
-11.8
-17.7
3.4
20.0
10.5
24.2
1.8
-19.1
33.6
5.0
61.7
29.9
280.2
-27.2
-43.7
-41.2
-68.6
-90.2
42.5
-15.5
-19.9
-22.3
-16.0
35.2
22.9
34.9
24.1
34.6
33.1
- Machinery imports
6.4
-16.6
-27.4
-15.9
7.2
46.3
51.4
66.4
38.2
59.9
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
-1.7
-4.0
-8.9
1.2
12.8
21.7
14.4
12.0
9.5
10.5
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea & The Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
Facility investment in September is projected to be affected by a high base effect from the previous month’s large increase despite brisk machinery imports and solid investor confidence.
2010
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
October 2010
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
104
104
107
106
106
106
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2010 declined 3.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.9 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
-2.8
-0.5
0.4
-7.7
4.4
2.8
5.1
-
-0.4
0.7
-3.3
-
5.9
1.8
- Building construction
-4.6
-0.8
0.2
-14.8
-1.8
-9.6
-2.4
- Civil engineering works
-0.2
-0.2
0.8
1.6
13.3
26.1
15.7
Construction investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
20101 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
4.4
5.0
2.3
-2.9
-0.7
-0.1
1.3
-3.6
1.2
2.5
1.7
-6.3
9.7
7.5
3.1
1.1
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction completed (constant value) in August, while rising 3.0 percent year-on-year, fell 5.5 percent month-on-month, as building construction and civil engineering works declined due to the sluggish housing market and reduced fiscal spending. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Construction completed(constant value) (Seasonally adjusted)
- Civil engineering works Construction orders (current value) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
Annual
Annual
-8.1
1.7
Q2
Q3
Q4
4.5
1.8
5.0
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
2.0
-3.9
-5.9
2.2
3.0
-
-
3.5
-5.3
-1.3
5.4
-2.2
7.7
-4.4
-5.5
-10.3
-6.5
-6.5
-5.1
0.7
-0.1
-8.5
-12.1
-6.6
-7.2
2.2
-5.7
25.9
15.4
11.4
4.8
2.8
2.5
17.4
19.6
-7.6
3.0
-1.1
7.6
11.6
-6.9
-6.6
-15.8
22.2
-13.9
-15.4
-16.0
-47.2
5.6
17.0
-0.4
60.1
34.3
3.3
-24.9
13.5
41.9
140.9
10.6
3.7
-14.2
-51.5
-49.3
52.7
23.2
-20.1
-12.9
-32.7
-4.6
13.1
12.1
47.4
14.0
1.7
-4.7
2
- Building construction
2010 1
2009
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea & The Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment in September, given falling construction-related advanced indicators, is likely to be low, despite improved investor confidence following the government’s measures to boost housing market transactions announced on August 29.
2010
Business survey indices (base=100) for Construction projections Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
October 2010
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
85.5
74.1
69.6
58.4
55.9
71.5
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
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7-2
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7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
August 2010 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in August increased by 386,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 59.0 percent. By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 297,000), construction (up 109,000) and services (up 36,000) climbed while that of agriculture, forestry & fishery (down 35,000) declined. Hiring in manufacturing expanded at the highest pace since August 2000 as output in mining and manufacturing increased amid robust exports. The service sector decelerated growth due to sluggish public administration (down 214,000) and whole sales and retail sales (down 33,000). By status of workers, despite an accelerated decrease in daily workers (down 115,000), wage workers (up 569,000) continued to expand growth as the number of regular workers (up 679,000) and temporary workers (up 5,000) increased. Non-wage workers (down 183,000) including self-employed workers (down 133,000) continued to decline.
2008
2009
Annual Annual Aug Number of employed (million)
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
23.58 23.51 23.62 22.90 23.74 23.75 23.63 23.04 24.17 24.28 24.30 24.01
Employment rate (%)
59.5
58.6
58.8
57.4
59.3
59.1
58.7
57.0
59.6
59.8
59.8
59.1
(seasonally adjusted)
59.5
58.6
58.8
58.8
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.3
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.0
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
145
-72
3
-146
-134
-1
-6
132
433
314
473
386
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
182
-34
37
-160
-109
24
110
296
51.8
353
513
421
- Manufacturing
-52
-126
-138
-163
-151
-143
-49
61
172
181
238
297
- Construction
-37
-91
-105
-43
-113
-103
-107
-61
44
67
118
109
- Services
260
179
275
38
154
261
261
313
325
126
182
36
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-37
-38
-34
14
-25
-25
-116
-164
-85
-39
-40
-35
- Wage workers
236
247
375
73
175
356
385
371
623
457
639
569
路Regular workers
386
383
365
318
313
386
515
651
766
750
725
679
路Temporary workers
-93
22
147
-136
-5
125
105
-37
42
-116
-40
5
路Daily workers
-57
-158
-137
-108
-133
-155
-235
-243
-185
-177
-46
-115
-92
-319
-373
-220
-309
-357
-391
-239
-189
-143
-166
-183
-79
-259
-276
-197
-286
-276
-279
-106
-91
-85
-128
-133
- Male
96
31
7
-23
24
34
89
117
188
109
24
218
- Female
48
-103
-4
-124
-158
-34
-94
15
245
205
23
167
- 15 to 29
-119
-127
-126
-212
-99
-123
-77
-12
-58
-85
-18
-55
- 30 to 39
-26
-173
-166
-159
-213
-169
-149
-42
-13
-27
32
37
- 40 to 49
64
-24
-33
8
-27
-30
-46
-21
48
24
49
44
- 50 to 59
207
198
201
193
156
211
230
251
342
332
314
309
18
54
127
23
49
109
37
-44
114
70
96
50
- Non-wage workers 路Self-employed workers
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
October 2010
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in August decreased by 74,000 year-on-year to record 831,000 and the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) stood at 3.4 percent, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. By gender, male unemployment (down 83,000) accelerated the decrease while female unemployment (up 9,000) increased. By age, the unemployment rate decreased in all age brackets except seniors aged 60 or more (up 10,000). The unemployment for youths aged 15 to 29 dropped 1.2 percentage points, recording 7.0 percent.
2008 Annual Q3
2009
2010
Q4 Annual Aug
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
Number of unemployed (thousand)
769
752
757
889
905
908
943
886
817 1,130 868
878
931
831
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-14
-5
24
119
141
107
176
134
60
222 -75
-83
4
-74
- Male
-12
1
25
80
97
83
116
95
25
83 -47
-51
-22
-83
-1
-6
-1
40
44
24
60
39
36
139 -29
-32
25
9
Unemployment rate (%)
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.3
4.7 3.5
3.5
3.7
3.3
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.5
4.3 3.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
- 15 to 29
7.2
6.9
7.0
8.1
8.2
8.6
8.0
8.1
7.6
9.5 7.7
8.3
8.5
7.0
- 30 to 39
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.7
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.9 3.6
3.4
3.4
3.6
- 40 to 49
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.9 2.3
2.2
2.4
2.3
- 50 to 59
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.2
3.2 2.1
2.0
2.4
2.1
- 60 or more
1.2
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.5
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.5
5.8 2.1
2.0
2.2
1.8
- Female
Q1
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in August was up 172,000 from a year earlier to post 15,820,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) was up 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 61.1 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to rest, time-off, and leisure (up 18,000), housework (up 204,000) and education (up 83,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to childcare (down 148,000) decreased.
2008 Annual Q3
2009 Q4 Annual Aug
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul
Aug
Economically inactive population (million) 15.25 15.15 15.37 15.70 15.64 16.09 15.35 15.53 15.83 16.25 15.49 15.42 15.38 15.82 Labor force participation rate (%)
61.5 61.8 61.3 60.6 61.1 59.7 61.7 61.3 60.7 59.8 61.8 62.0 62.1 61.1
(seasonally adjusted)
61.5 61.4 61.2 60.6 61.0 60.9 60.9 61.0 60.6 61.0 61.0 61.0 61.3 61.1
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
297
289
372
447
366
514
445
374
- Childcare
63
82
53
40
2
78
48
19
- Housework
61
52
59
148
71
131
125
100
235
237
175
246
175
204
- Education
113
125
109
31
33
90
58
11
-36
-74
23
29
0
83
- Old age
76
104
59
88
110
52
102
105
92
193
59
53
62
39
- Rest
31
-27
99
123
108
162
112
94
123 -187
-27
45
-41
18
Source: Statistics Korea
24
October 2010
456
166
146
264
14
172
15 -118 -126 -112 -141 -148
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in September surged amid easing concerns over global economic slowdown. KOSPI showed a strong upward momentum as economic indicators in major economies such as the US and China improved and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared the end of the recession, which renewed expectations of economic recovery. KOSPI broke the 1,870-point as investor sentiment improved with strong earnings expectations for Korean companies and successful issuances of government bonds by Europe’s debt-ridden nations including Portugal. Foreign investors shifted to a huge net-buying position, purchasing to 4.3 trillion won, as international money market’s appetite for risk grew and investors noticed that KOSPI remains undervalued. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI
KOSDAQ
Aug 2010
Sep 2010
Change1
Aug 2010
Sep 2010
Change1
1,742.8
1,872.8
+130.1(+7.5%)
464.7
492.8
+28.0 (+6.0%)
964.0
1,037.7
+73.7 (+7.6%)
84.9
91.5
+6.6 (+7.8%)
Stock price index Market capitalization Average daily trade value
5.0
6.0
+1.0 (+20.0%)
1.5
1.5
0.0 (0.0%)
Foreign stock ownership
31.5
31.5
0.0 (0.0%)
8.6
9.0
+0.4 (+4.7%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in September decreased 57.9 won from 1,198.1 won at the end of August to wrap up the month at 1,140.2 won. The won/dollar exchange rate fell mainly as the dollar is losing steam in the global market with expectations that the Federal Reserve would launch the second round of quantitative easing. The won’s appreciation was also due to improved US economic indicators and KOSPI, which continued to set new highs. The won/yen exchange rate was down 55.7 won month-on-month as the won appreciated relatively significantly backed by Korea’s solid economic fundamentals amid the weak dollar. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
2010 Aug
Sep
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,198.1
1,140.2
2.1
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,423.8
1,368.1
-7.6
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
October 2010
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields plummeted in September as the Bank of Korea (BOK) was expected to keep its policy rate unchanged until the end of this year. Despite improved domestic and overseas stock market conditions, Treasury bond yields continued to decrease due to the BOK’s unexpected rate freeze, mounting expectations over the Federal Reserve’s additional liquidity measures and the strong won. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jul
Aug
2010 Sep
Call rate (1 day)
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.28
2.28
2.27
-1
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.63
2.66
2.66
0
Change1
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.80
3.55
3.32
-23
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.75
4.53
4.26
-27
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.38
4.00
3.71
-29
1. Basis point changes in May 2010 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in July expanded 8.7 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. Despite inflows of foreign investment fund, the year-on-year M2 growth decelerated in July from the previous month of 9.0 percent, due to reduced volume of security held by financial institutions and VAT payments. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2008 M1
Annual
Q1
2009
Q2
Q3
2010
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Jul
Jul1
-1.8
-12.4
-0.1
2.1
5.0
16.3
10.8
17.6
18.9
17.8
10.7
11.1
404
M2
14.3
13.3
15.3
14.7
13.8
10.1
11.5
10.1
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.7
1,646
Lf 3
11.9
11.6
12.8
12.1
11.2 Upper 7
8.8
7.3
7.5
7.4
8.6
8.44
2,106
2
1. Balance at end July 2010, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In August, bank deposits shifted to a decrease as a net redemption of market deposits expanded although time deposits grew steadily. Asset management company (AMC) deposits turned to an increase due to the inflow of corporate funds into money market funds (MMFs) and a decreased redemption in equity funds. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2008
2009
2010
Annual
Aug
Annual
Aug
Jun
Jul
Aug
Aug1
Bank deposits
104.3
18.7
54.8
13.5
5.4
3.5
-3.2
1,045
AMC deposits
63.0
4.0
-27.6
-7.8
-9.5
-6.5
0.6
328
1. Balance at end August, trillion won
28
October 2010
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2 International oil and commodity prices In September, international oil prices inched up month-on-month while domestic oil product prices edged down from the previous month. International oil prices (Dubai crude) showed a mixed trend until mid September before edging up toward the end of the month. Governments’ aggressive policy response such as maintaining the low interest rate policy eased concerns that major economies such as the US would fall into another economic recession, pushing up international oil prices. (US$/barrel, period average) 2007
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Dubai crude
68.4
94.3
61.9
77.3
83.6
76.8
74.1
72.6
74.2
75.2
Brent crude
72.8
97.5
61.7
79.0
84.8
75.2
74.9
75.7
77.2
77.9
WTI crude
72.3
99.9
61.9
81.3
84.5
73.7
75.3
76.3
76.6
75.3
Source: KOREAPDS
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)
Although international oil prices increased slightly, domestic prices of oil products continued to decrease month-on-month as the won’s value against the dollar stabilized. (Won/liter, period average) 2007 Annual
2008 Annual
2009 Annual
Mar
Apr
Gasoline prices
1,526
1,692
1,601
1,691
Diesel prices
1,273
1,614
1,397
1,469
May
2010 Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
1,725
1,732
1,715
1,722
1,716
1,700
1,507
1,522
1,509
1,518
1,513
1,499
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in September increased due to robust demand in emerging markets such as China and expected decreases in major grain production hit by aggravating weather conditions. Prices of major non-ferrous metals such as copper and nickel climbed as robust demand continued with China, the world’s largest importer of raw materials, expanding imports of non-ferrous metals. International prices of grain including corn hiked due to bad weather conditions in major grain producing countries as well as forecasts of lower US production. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Sep (m-o-m, %) Corn (15.5), wheat (1.9), soybean (4.3), raw sugar (20.3), copper (5.7), aluminum (3.4), nickel (5.4), zinc (5.0), lead (5.2), tin (9.4)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2,400
2,536
2,079
2,269
2,329
2,273
2,285
2,477
2,687
2,765
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS
34
2010
2007 Annual
October 2010
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In September, nationwide apartment sales prices were up 0.2 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area fell for the sixth consecutive month in September with a 0.3 percent decrease. The pace of decrease was however, slowing steadily. Meanwhile, apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area continued to increase significantly led by Busan (up 1.1%), South Gyeongsang province (up 1.1%) and North Jeolla province (up 0.8%). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities advanced 0.6 percent and 0.5 percent month-on-month, respectively.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007
2008
Annual Annual
Annual Annual
2009 Q4
2010 May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Aug 301
Sep 61 Sep 131 Sep 271
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
2.3
1.6
0.9
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.0
0.2
0.05
0.04
Seoul
24.1
3.6
3.2
2.6
0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.04
-0.04 -0.04 -0.05
Gangnam2
27.6
0.5
-1.9
3.9
0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.2
-0.04
-0.04 -0.04 -0.05
Gangbuk3
19.0
8.3
9.4
0.9
0.4
-0.3
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.03
-0.04 -0.05 -0.05
24.6
4.0
2.9
0.7
0.2
-0.4
-0.7
-0.7
-0.5
-0.3
-0.04
-0.06 -0.05 -0.05
2.1
-0.6
1.0
2.8
1.9
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.18
Seoul metropolitan area 5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
0.16
0.04
0.15
0.09
0.26
3. Northern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment rental prices in September were up 0.7 percent from the previous month on strong seasonal demand in autumn from newlyweds and others. In the Seoul metropolitan area, apartment rental prices considerably accelerated the month-on-month increase (up 0.8%), reversing a stabilizing trend of recent months.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2006 2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Annual Q4
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam
2
Gangbuk3 Seoul metropolitan area 5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
2010 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Aug 301 Sep 61 Sep 131 Sep 271
7.6
1.9
0.8
4.5
2.0
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.15
0.19 0.23
0.36
11.5
2.2
-1.8
8.1
2.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.12
0.16 0.27
0.51
11.3
0.5
-3.6
10.4
2.7
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.7
0.14
0.19 0.29
0.58
11.8
4.6
0.5
5.4
1.9
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.6
0.09
0.13 0.24
0.43
11.7
2.1
-0.4
5.6
1.8
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.8
0.14
0.20 0.30
0.48
3.0
1.1
1.6
3.9
2.6
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.6
0.15
0.19 0.19
0.25
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 3. Northern Seoul Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in August declined 7.1 percent from 61,878 a month earlier to post 57,492. The transactions were down 29.0 percent from a year earlier and 17.4 percent compared with the monthly average of 70,000 recorded in the same month for the past 3 years.
Apartment sales transactions 2007
(Monthly average, thousand)
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Jul Nationwide
84
74
77
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
36
October 2010
91
2010
Aug
Sep
Oct
81
90
87
Nov Dec Jan 82
82
62
Feb Mar Apr 67
80
73
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
62
65
62
57
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of coincident composite index decreased 0.1 point month-on-month to post 102.1 in August. Among the components of coincident composite index, four components such as the service activity index and the value of construction completed went down while the other four components such as the domestic shipment index and the wholesale & retail sales index were up. Components of coincident composite index in August (m-o-m) Value of construction completed (-0.9%), service activity index (-0.5%), manufacturing operation ratio index (-0.4%), number of non-farm payroll employment (-0.1%), wholesale & retail sales index (1.5%), volume of imports (1.3%), domestic shipment index (1.2%), mining & manufacturing production index (0.5%).
The year-on-year leading composite index in August increased 0.2 percentage points from the previous month showing a fourth consecutive month upward trend of the economy but decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year due to last year’s high base effect. Among the components of the leading composite index, five components such as the value of construction orders and the indicator of inventory cycle declined, while the other five components such as the ratio of job openings to job seekers and the composite stock price index climbed. Components of the leading composite index in August (m-o-m) Value of construction orders received (-13.1%), value of machinery orders received (-5.5%), indicator of inventory cycle (-2.8%p), consumer expectations index (-0.5p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.1%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (3.1%p), composite stock price index (3.1%), value of capital goods imports (2.4%), net terms of trade index (1.4%), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.3%).
2010 Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun1
Jul1
Aug1
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.3
100.0
100.6
101.1
101.4
101.7
102.2
102.1
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
-0.1
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
-0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.6
0.3
0.9
0.2
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
10.3
9.7
8.6
7.9
7.1
6.7
5.9
(m-o-m, %p)
-1.0
-0.6
-1.1
-0.6
-0.9
-0.4
-0.8
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
1. Preliminary
40
October 2010
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues 2011 Budget Plan
Background During the past two years, the Korean government has put the first priority on riding out the economic crisis. The administration actively responded to the crisis, as it laid out 40.6 trillion won in fiscal spending through supplementary budgets and put 26.1 trillion won in tax reduction, the total of which amounted to 66.7 trillion won or 6.5 percent of GDP, between 2008 and 2010. Helped by the government’s swift response, Korea has seen its economy recover faster than any other OECD member countries. Against this backdrop, the Korean government unveiled the 2011 budget plan focusing on 1) expediting the trickle-down of the economic recovery to the real economy, and 2) improving fiscal consolidation impaired while the country was trying to overcome the crisis.
Key principles of the 2011 budget plan The 2011 budget will prioritize 1) supporting working class people through welfare services designed to the need of individuals in education, daycare, housing and medical services, 2) nurturing future growth engines such as green technologies, convergence industries and other breakthrough technologies by providing more systematic support in developing core technologies, growing professionals, creating new markets, and funding startups, and 3) improving the fiscal balance so that it will reach a balance between 2013 and 2014 and the national debt will be reduced to the lower 30 percent range to GDP by 2014.
42
October 2010
The budget plan The total revenue in 2011 including budgets and funds will be 314.6 billion won, an 8.2 percent increase from 2010, with the tax burden remaining at the same level as 2010 of 19.3 percent of GDP.
<Revenue Budget>
(trillion won, %) 2010 Budget (A)
2011 Budget plan (B)
290.8
314.6
Total revenue
Change (B/A, %) 8.2
Budget
194.8
212.3
9.0
- National tax
170.5
187.8
10.2
- Non-tax revenue
24.3
24.5
0.6
Fund
96.0
102.3
6.5
Tax burden (% to GDP)
19.3
19.3
-
The total expenditure in 2011 will be 309.6 trillion won, a 5.7 percent increase from 2010. The expenditure increase is 2.5 percentage points lower than the revenue increase, which is expected to contribute to improving fiscal health.
<Expenditure Budget>
(trillion won, %) 2010 Budget (A)
2011 Budget plan (B)
Total expenditure
292.8
309.6
5.7
- Budget
205.3
215.9
5.2
87.5
93.7
7.0
- Fund
Change (B/A, %)
The fiscal balance is expected to improve 0.7 percentage points from -2.7 percent to GDP in 2010 to -2.0 percent in 2011. The fiscal deficit will start to be reduced from 2011, and a fiscal balance is expected to be reached by 2013 or 2014. The national debt will be decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 35.2 percent to GDP in 2011 from 2010â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 36.1 percent. Less amount of national bonds to supplement the general account will be issued in 2011, as 22.0 trillion won of the bonds are planned to be on the market in 2011 compared with 2010â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 29.3 trillion won.
<Fiscal Balance>
(trillion won) 2010 Budget
2011 Budget plan
-30.1
-25.3
- Percentage to GDP (%)
-2.7
-2.0
Consolidated fiscal balance
-2.0
5.0
Consolidated fiscal balance excluding social security funds
- Percentage to GDP (%)
-0.2
0.4
407.2
436.8
- Percentage to GDP (%)
36.1
35.2
National bonds to supplement the general account
29.3
22.0
National debt
Economic Bulletin
43
<Major budget allocation> Sector R&D
(trillion won, %) 2010 Budget (A)
2011 Budget plan (B)
Difference (B-A)
13.7
14.9
1.2
Change (B/A, %) 8.6
Industries, SMEs, energy
15.1
15.2
0.06
0.4
- Excluding a budget for reserving oil
14.4
15.2
0.8
5.2
SOC
25.1
24.3
-0.8
-3.2
3.2
3.3
0.1
1.9
- Four river restoration project Agriculture, fishery, food
17.3
17.7
0.4
2.3
Health, welfare, employment
81.2
86.3
5.1
6.2
Education
38.3
41.3
3.0
8.0
- Grants for local education
32.3
35.3
3.0
9.3
Culture, sports, tourism
3.9
4.1
0.2
5.0
Environment
5.4
5.7
0.3
5.0
29.6
31.3
1.7
5.8
3.3
3.7
0.4
9.0
Public order, public safety
12.9
13.6
0.7
5.3
General public administration
48.7
53.2
4.5
9.3
- Tax grants to local governments
27.4
30.2
2.8
10.3
292.8
309.6
16.8
5.7
Defense (general account) Foreign affairs, reunification
Total expenditure
Details of the budget 1. Budgets for supporting vulnerable groups Single income households with monthly income of 4.5 million won or less and double income households with monthly income of 6.0 million won or less, in case both of which are more than four member families, will be able to send their children to daycare centers free of charge. Up to 0.2 million won of childcare grants will be available to household with children under 36 months old who do not go to daycare centers. Would-be mothers will be paid 1.0 million won during their maternity leave and reemployment centers for mothers will be revitalized. The number of retired police officials and senior volunteer groups engaged in junior safety patrol in schools and school vicinities will be expanded from 1,740 persons to 2,270 persons and from 30 groups to 100 groups, respectively. Counseling services for victimized children will be expanded greatly with increased government support from 58.7 billion won to 91.7 billion won. Tuitions and admission fees for vocational high schools will be entirely provided by the government, for which 315.9 trillion won will be set aside. College scholarship for students from low-income families will also be expanded 100 billion won in 2011 from 2010â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 181.7 billion won to 331.3 billion won.
44
October 2010
The 2011 budget will spend 400 billion won on securing housing for low-income families, a 100 billion won increase from 2010â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 300 billion won. 11,000 old houses owned by those eligible for governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s basic livelihood support will be improved, an increase of 3,000 houses, along with home improvement to public rental housing. Homeless people who contracted tuberculosis will be under special care, and the emergency medical service system will be reformed so that the time taken to get the service can be reduced. Those with governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s long-term care for the severely disabled will be provided with expanded services such as visiting nurses and carers in addition to aid for housework and transportation. More than 10,000 customized jobs for disabled people will be provided in 2011, and companies employing disabled people will have increased support from 5.4 billion won to 6.5 billion a year in case of the ordinary disabled and from 7.2 million to 8.6 million for the severely disabled. Visiting childcare service sent to families with disabled children will be increased about four times from 688 families to 2,500 families. The number of those eligible for disabled medical support will be raised along with the amount of the support. Seniors will be provided with 200,000 customized jobs, while having expanded basic livelihood pensions, Senior Long-term Care Insurance, and visiting carer services. Temporary educational and medical supports will be offered for two years to those who are not eligible any more for educational and medical supports due to an income increase, from which 8,100 persons will benefit. All multicultural families, regardless of their income, will be provided with childcare support, which will amount to 58 billion won, along with language learning support of 5.6 billion won. To help settle marriage immigrants in Korea, the government will set aside 25.7 billion won for early settlement counseling, and 1.4 billion won for employment counseling.
<Budgets for supporting vulnerable groups>
Childcare
(billion won, %)
2010
2011
Difference
Change (%)
2,730.6
3,268.0
537.5
19.7
Child safety
120.5
219.7
99.1
82.2
Education, culture
736.6
1,364.9
628.4
85.3
14,728.7
15,569.4
840.7
5.7
Housing, medical services Disabled
367.8
617.2
249.4
67.8
Seniors
3366.9
3,581.3
214.4
6.4
Low-income families
7057.8
7,422.1
364.3
5.2
Multicultural families
59.4
85.9
26.6
44.7
29,168.2
32,128.6
2,960.3
10.1
Total
Economic Bulletin
45
2. Budgets for developing future growth engines New technologies with great potential markets such as those in robots, biomedicine and green cars, and industries with large job-creating potential and high added value such as content and health care industries will have stronger support in 2011. Technologies having spreading effects on other industries such as those in automobiles, shipbuilding, convergence, IT, software and energy will have solid support along with the development of World Premier Materials including secondary battery, LED, steel plates used in automobiles and vessels, and display panels. One trillion won will be set aside for basic scientific researches, while space and aeronautics have expanded support. Next generation exports, in particular plant exports, will also have unwavering support. Budgets for the four river restoration project will be 3.3 trillion won, an increase of 60 billion won compared with 2010. At the advent of the Green House Gas and Energy Target Management System, the government will invest 13.4 billion won in building up a national statistics system to help smoothly adopt the target management system. Expanded loans of 600 billion won will be available to Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), which provide energy-saving solutions. New renewable energy industries such as solar and nuclear energy, and wind power industries will be nurtured as new growth engines. More budgets set aside for railroad construction and maintenance in 2011 than 2010, as trains are cleaner means of transportation than cars. 2.2 trillion won will be put to secure water and upgrade water quality. Official Development Assistance (ODA) will be increased from 1.3 trillion won in 2010 to 1.6 trillion won in 2011. Seven countries will be eligible for customized consultation on Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic development experience. R&D investment into agricultural and fishery industries will be largely increased, especially in the fields to relate high technologies such as information technolgy (IT) and biotechnology (BT) to the industries. Innovative small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), especially startup innovative companies, will have expanded loans and education opportunities. The number of persons benefiting from governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s customized employment programs, which cover from training to employment, will be increased from 31,000 in 2010 to 50,000 in 2011. Governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s job training programs will be run on the basis of demand, focusing on green technologies, IT, and knowledge services.
46
October 2010
<Budgets for developing future growth engines>
(billion won, %)
2010
2011
2,855.9
3,355.4
499.5
17.5
733.8
771.1
37.3
5.1
Four river restoration
3,220.0
3,280.0
60.0
1.9
Response to the climate change
4,348.7
5,777.2
1,428.5
32.8
New growth engines Next generation exports
Difference
Change (%)
Foreign affairs
1,971.4
2,400.9
429.5
21.8
Agricultural and fishery industries
2,372.5
2,545.3
172.8
7.3
SMEs
3,781.3
3,998.9
217.6
5.8
Employment
1,507.8
1,589.3
81.5
5.4
20,791.4
23,718.1
2,926.7
14.1
Total
3. Budgets for local governments, defense and public safety Transfer of financial resources from the central government to local governments such as tax grants and education grants will be increased by 5.9 trillion won, making the total of 95.5 trillion won in 2011. Investments into local industries and corporate investment into provinces will have larger incentives. Major defense budgets will reflect the North’s provocation near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) and its unparallel threat, allocating more resources to reconnaissance and early warning. Each police station-based crime reporting centers will be integrated under the local office, for the police to move out faster in case of emergency, while a relief fund for crime victims is to be set up. Budgets for flood prevention such as river improvement and rainwater management will be increased, along with larger budget allocation in weather forecasting equipment. 4. Budgets for fiscal consolidation The fiscal deficit is expected to decrease 0.7 percentage points in 2011 from 2010’s 2.7 percent to 2.0 percent. The national debt to GDP in 2011 will be improved 0.9 percentage points to 35.2 percent. Mid- and long term fiscal management plan will be set up in preparation for possible future exhaustion of 11 funds including National Pension Fund and Public Employees’ Pension Fund. Budget cuts for projects with government subsidies will go on in 2011, with thorough inspections taken place every three years. Similar or overlapping employment programs will be integrated: 2010’s 202 programs by 23 ministries combined into 151 programs by 22 ministries in 2011. Welfare grant recipients will continue to be checked in terms of eligibility on the basis of the integrated welfare grant management system which monitors changes in recipients’ income and property as well as their welfare grant status.
Economic Bulletin
47
Economic News Briefing
Korea and EU sign free trade pact Korea and the European Union (EU) officially signed a free trade agreement (FTA) on October 6. The two sides held the official signing ceremony at the European Council headquarters in Brussels. Korean President Lee Myung-bak, EU President Herman Van Rompuy, and European Commission President Joseâ&#x20AC;˛Manuel Barroso attended the ceremony. The Korea-EU FTA marks the first free trade pact the EU has settled with an East Asian country. The agreement will come into provisional effect in July next year. The pact eliminates or phases out all duties on Korean exports to the EU, and 97.0 percent of the duties on EU exports to Korea over the next five years. Tariffs on 81.7 percent of Korean goods and 94.0 percent of EU products will be immediately abolished after the deal takes effect. With respect to the service sector, Korea is to open 115 industries while Europe will allow 139 industries. Once the FTA enters into force, Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s real GDP is expected to grow 5.6 percent, and its exports in manufacturing sectors, including automobiles, electronics, and textiles, are
48
October 2010
predicted to increase considerably. At a joint press conference following the fifth Korea-EU summit, President Lee said the Korea-EU FTA will bring huge economic benefits to both Korea and the EU. Lee added that the trade pact will boost economic cooperation and promote tourism as well as exchanges in education, culture, human resources, sports and other fields.
IMF’s world economic outlook update On October 6, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed that the world economic recovery is proceeding but remains fragile since it is an unbalanced recovery with sluggish advanced economies and much stronger emerging and developing countries. The Washington-based agency projected that the world economy will grow by 4.8 percent and 4.2 percent in 2010 and 2011, respectively. In advanced economies, growth is projected at 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.2 percent in 2011 while that in emerging economies as a whole is forecast to reach 7.1 percent in 2010 and 6.4 percent in 2011. IMF’s growth forecast for the Korean economy remained unchanged at 6.1 percent in 2010 and 4.5 percent in 2011.
Korea and Africa to enhance cooperation The 2010 Korea-Africa Economic Cooperation Forum (KOAFEC) was held in Seoul on September 16. Several African ministers, a delegation from the African Development Bank (AfDB), business leaders and specialists attended the forum to discuss bilateral economic partnership with Korea. The forum aims at strengthening cooperation ties among KOAFEC partners in the pursuit of mutual interests. Participants of the forum engaged in stimulating discussions to share Korea’s development experience with Africa in areas such as construction and infrastructure, IT and resource and energy cooperation. Meanwhile, Korea’s Strategy and Finance Ministry and the AfDB signed in Seoul on September 15, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) extending their US$250 million cofinancing agreement to 2011-2013. In addition, Korea and the AfDB signed two other MOUs for joint consulting and promotion of trade and investment.
Economic Bulletin
49
Korea reveals mutual growth plan for large enterprises and SMEs Korea announced on September 29 a plan to promote cooperation between conglomerates and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Recognizing the need to stay competitive in the face of global competition, and also to achieve sustainable growth and job creation, the government and various industry groups devised measures that would help large enterprises to grow in harmony with their smaller counterparts. The plan consists of four parts: Ensuring a fair transaction, protecting the business boundaries of SMEs, supporting self-sustainable growth, and establishing a system to implement the above. The first part includes measures to give SMEs more leverage in negotiating contract terms with large enterprises, prevent big businesses from taking SMEs’ technology, and keep an eye on large retailers’ unfair trade practices. Other strategies involve restricting entry of conglomerates in certain sectors in order for SMEs to take more chances, as well as expanding the scope of cooperation between large enterprises and SMEs. Plans to boost competitiveness of small businesses and improve working conditions in industrial complexes have also been suggested. To ensure the sustainability of the plan, “Mutual Growth Committee” will be launched in December. In addition, “Win-Win Index” will be adopted to assess the performance of each company. Those rated high in the index will receive favor when participating in government projects, while the low-ranking firms will be subject to penalties.
Korea to attract FDI to service industry On September 14, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy announced a plan to attract up to US$60 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) to the country’s service industry and create up to 150,000 new jobs by 2015. To further develop the service industry, the government is focusing on attracting FDI in areas such as knowledge services, tourism, logistics, distribution, financial services, education and medical services. The increase in FDI is expected to improve the service account by about US$2.5 billion over the next five years. In addition, the government plans to increase Korea’s service productivity to 70 percent of the OECD average from 63 percent last year. To help attract more foreign investors, the government revised special laws on free economic zones and the revision is currently pending in the National Assembly.
50
October 2010
KNOC seals Dana takeover Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) announced on September 24 that it secured 64.26 percent of Dana Petroleum’s stock with its 1,800 pence per share offer. Dana Petroleum, a British oil company, controls oil reserves in the North Sea and Africa. The deal is KNOC’s first hostile takeover and the second largest purchase after its takeover of Canada’s Harvest Energy last year. KNOC will apply for Dana’s delisting from the London Stock Exchange if it secures more than 75 percent of the shares. It is anticipated that cancellation of listing and admission to trading of Dana will take effect from October 28. The acquisition would help KNOC to achieve its target of doubling the current oil production to 300,000 barrels a day and reserves to 2 billion barrels by 2012.
Economic Bulletin
51
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
53
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 1.6
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.9 -1.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.3
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -0.2
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 4.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.1
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009P
I II III IV
-4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0
1.5 -1.3 3.3 2.8
-13.6 -7.2 1.7 13.0
-2.0 0.7 1.7 4.7
-7.4 -2.3 0.4 7.1
2.8 5.1 4.4 5.0
-23.1 -17.3 -7.0 13.3
2010P
I II
8.1 7.2
-1.9 -2.2
20.7 18.0
5.7 3.6
11.4 6.4
2.3 -2.9
29.9 30.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
54
October 2010
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
55
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2008 2009
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.8 118.9
3.4 -0.8
118.3 116.3
2.6 -1.7
125.5 115.5
7.1 -8.0
116.1 118.4
3.6 2.0
2008
I II III IV
121.9 125.5 119.6 112.4
11.2 9.2 5.9 -11.0
119.8 123.0 118.0 112.4
9.3 6.8 5.5 -9.9
123.6 133.2 132.0 125.5
8.4 16.3 17.1 7.1
114.0 116.0 116.4 118.1
6.8 4.3 3.4 0.0
2009
I II III IV
102.8 117.8 124.7 130.5
-15.7 -6.1 4.3 16.2
101.9 115.9 120.5 126.8
-14.9 -5.8 2.1 12.8
115.9 110.6 113.3 115.5
-6.2 -16.9 -14.2 -8.0
113.7 118.8 118.6 122.5
-0.3 2.4 1.9 3.7
2010
I II
129.3 140.8
25.8 19.5
124.1 135.8
21.8 17.2
123.6 127.9
6.6 15.6
120.2 123.6
5.7 4.0
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.3 111.1 128.3 126.5 126.5 123.5 123.4 116.2 119.1 126.7 110.3 100.0
12.0 10.9 10.9 11.2 9.2 7.3 8.9 2.2 6.7 -1.5 -13.6 -18.4
121.9 109.9 127.6 124.8 123.7 120.5 121.6 114.7 117.6 124.2 109.8 103.2
10.5 8.1 9.2 8.9 6.6 4.9 8.0 2.0 6.3 -1.7 -12.9 -15.1
123.9 124.3 123.6 124.6 128.7 133.1 132.4 132.1 132.0 134.7 133.2 125.5
4.5 7.5 8.4 11.4 12.7 16.2 14.5 14.3 17.1 17.1 15.9 7.1
114.3 109.6 118.1 116.1 116.7 115.1 117.4 114.2 117.5 118.9 113.3 122.2
8.0 6.6 6.0 6.1 4.1 2.7 4.7 1.2 4.2 3.1 -2.0 -1.0
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
93.8 99.8 114.7 116.1 115.0 122.2 124.3 117.4 132.3 127.0 130.3 134.2
-25.7 -10.2 -10.6 -8.2 -9.1 -1.1 0.7 1.0 11.1 0.2 18.1 34.2
93.1 99.4 113.3 114.7 112.8 120.1 120.0 113.5 127.9 123.4 126.8 130.2
-23.6 -9.6 -11.2 -8.1 -8.8 -0.3 -1.3 -1.0 8.8 -0.6 15.5 26.2
123.7 117.6 115.9 112.4 111.4 110.6 112.3 112.8 113.3 112.6 113.7 115.5
-0.2 -5.4 -6.2 -9.8 -13.4 -16.9 -15.2 -14.6 -14.2 -16.4 -14.6 -8.0
112.4 109.5 119.2 119.9 118.5 118.0 118.1 115.5 122.3 118.3 118.1 131.0
-1.7 -0.1 0.9 3.3 1.5 2.5 0.6 1.1 4.1 -0.5 4.2 7.2
128.5 118.7 140.7 139.4 139.9 143.1 143.6 137.5
37.0 18.9 22.7 20.1 21.7 17.1 15.5 17.1
123.0 113.7 135.6 134.9 134.2 138.2 137.0 132.3
32.1 14.4 19.7 17.6 19.0 15.1 14.2 16.6
119.2 122.5 123.6 124.6 127.9 127.9 132.6 134.5
-3.6 4.2 6.6 10.9 14.8 15.6 18.1 19.2
117.3 117.5 125.8 124.4 122.9 123.5 121.9 120.3
4.4 7.3 5.5 3.8 3.7 4.7 3.2 4.2
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
October 2010
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
115.3 118.9
5.1 3.1
97.2 93.5
-3.2 -3.8
77.5 74.6
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2008 2009 2008
I II III IV
113.8 115.1 116.0 116.4
5.9 6.3 5.3 3.4
99.3 103.1 95.5 91.1
2.2 0.5 -0.7 -13.6
81.5 80.8 78.3 69.6
2009
I II III IV
116.8 117.8 119.7 121.1
2.6 2.3 3.2 4.0
81.4 94.6 97.8 100.3
-18.0 -8.2 2.4 10.1
66.9 74.2 78.8 78.4
2010
I II
122.7 124.6
5.1 5.8
97.7 106.5
20.0 12.6
80.5 83.0
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 113.9 114.3 115.4 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.7
6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.3
103.2 89.5 105.1 104.7 103.3 101.2 99.8 92.2 94.5 104.1 89.4 79.7
3.4 1.5 1.4 3.2 -0.6 -1.3 1.5 -4.6 0.7 -4.8 -16.8 -20.1
82.1 80.6 81.7 82.1 80.1 80.1 79.3 78.3 77.3 76.9 69.1 62.8
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.8 116.7 117.0 117.6 117.6 118.3 119.1 119.5 120.4 120.6 120.8 121.9
2.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.5
73.5 79.5 91.1 93.4 92.6 97.9 98.6 91.1 103.6 99.1 100.6 101.1
-28.8 -11.2 -13.3 -10.8 -10.4 -3.3 -1.2 -1.2 9.6 -4.8 12.5 26.9
62.8 67.7 70.3 72.4 73.6 76.6 78.7 77.7 79.9 77.3 78.2 79.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
122.1 122.4 123.6 123.8 124.8 125.1 126.7 127.7
4.5 4.9 5.6 5.3 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.9
97.4 88.4 107.2 106.6 104.8 108.2 106.8 98.2
32.5 11.2 17.7 14.1 13.2 10.5 8.3 7.8
78.9 80.3 82.4 82.2 82.8 84.0 84.8 81.8
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Consumer goods sales index
2008 2009
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
110.6 113.5
1.1 2.6
126.4 136.7
1.6 8.1
104.9 105.2
-3.0 0.3
110.0 111.3
1.4 1.2
2008
I Il III IV
111.5 111.7 108.8 110.4
4.5 2.9 1.4 -4.2
129.9 134.1 125.8 115.7
8.7 8.0 -0.1 -9.6
103.6 107.2 94.0 115.0
4.0 -2.7 0.3 -10.7
109.2 108.8 112.3 109.5
2.3 1.3 1.5 0.2
2009
I II III IV
106.3 113.4 111.9 122.3
-4.7 1.5 2.8 10.8
114.4 141.8 135.7 154.9
-11.9 5.7 7.9 33.9
102.0 106.6 93.3 118.9
-1.5 -0.6 -0.7 3.4
107.7 109.3 114.4 114.0
-1.4 0.5 1.9 4.1
2010
I II
116.8 118.9
9.9 4.9
148.1 149.4
29.5 5.4
104.8 114.0
2.7 6.9
111.3 113.1
3.3 3.5
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.3 115.4 113.4 115.1 106.5 109.6 106.2 110.7 109.7 108.9 112.7
5.4 3.5 4.6 6.3 3.3 -0.7 4.2 2.2 -1.8 -3.3 -4.6 -4.8
128.3 117.8 143.6 139.1 136.0 127.1 140.7 121.5 115.2 123.9 108.9 114.4
8.1 6.1 11.4 15.6 7.9 0.6 7.9 -4.7 -3.8 -0.5 -15.3 -12.5
104.4 97.8 108.5 108.5 112.1 100.9 97.6 86.2 98.1 111.6 120.3 113.1
6.7 7.2 -1.3 -2.8 -3.7 -1.8 3.5 8.8 -8.9 -10.1 -7.7 -14.3
108.8 108.4 110.5 109.5 112.3 104.5 106.1 112.0 118.8 106.6 107.7 114.3
4.3 0.6 2.2 4.5 2.0 -2.7 1.0 2.0 1.6 -2.2 1.2 1.5
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 100.9 109.4 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.9 106.7 118.1 120.4 119.5 127.0
-2.9 -6.0 -5.2 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.2 0.5 6.7 9.8 9.7 12.7
103.9 115.8 123.6 123.7 144.0 157.8 138.3 122.7 146.0 144.7 153.2 166.8
-19.0 -1.7 -13.9 -11.1 5.9 24.2 -1.7 1.0 26.7 16.8 40.7 45.8
102.6 96.1 107.4 108.3 112.1 99.4 94.3 85.6 100.1 114.9 120.7 121.2
-1.7 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -1.5 -3.4 -0.7 2.0 3.0 0.3 7.2
114.8 99.0 109.2 107.1 113.0 107.8 111.1 112.9 119.1 116.8 109.3 116.0
5.5 -8.7 -1.2 -2.2 0.6 3.2 4.7 0.8 0.3 9.6 1.5 1.5
2010
116.0 114.1 120.2 116.5 121.3 118.9 120.5 116.6
6.9 13.1 9.9 7.3 3.7 3.8 8.7 9.3
145.6 140.1 158.6 144.1 146.7 157.5 163.8 154.3
40.1 21.0 28.3 16.5 1.9 -0.2 18.4 25.8
107.3 98.6 108.5 112.7 120.5 108.9 103.1 90.1
4.6 2.6 1.0 4.1 7.5 9.6 9.3 5.3
108.8 112.2 112.8 110.6 116.2 112.4 114.9 116.4
-5.2 13.3 3.3 3.3 2.8 4.3 3.4 3.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
October 2010
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2008 2009
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
114.8 115.5
1.6 0.6
126.8 133.9
1.8 5.6
109.9 108.1
1.4 -1.6
-
2008
I II III IV
117.5 115.7 113.8 111.9
5.8 4.2 2.2 -5.7
133.3 136.5 123.0 114.4
11.3 11.4 0.1 -13.9
111.1 107.4 110.1 111.0
3.3 0.9 3.2 -1.8
-
2009
I II III IV
106.7 114.1 118.8 122.5
-9.2 -1.4 4.4 9.5
112.7 138.0 138.0 147.0
-15.5 1.1 12.2 28.5
104.3 104.5 111.1 112.6
-6.1 -2.7 0.9 1.4
-
2010
I II
117.6 119.2
10.2 4.5
136.1 139.7
20.8 1.2
110.2 111.0
5.7 6.2
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.4 106.5 120.6 119.8 115.7 111.7 117.8 111.7 112.0 119.7 107.0 109.1
9.1 2.1 5.7 7.3 2.4 2.9 7.4 -1.1 0.6 -1.6 -9.3 -6.3
132.6 123.1 144.2 144.2 136.9 128.5 134.3 118.6 116.1 127.7 111.0 104.4
12.4 8.3 12.8 20.3 9.3 5.0 8.0 -5.1 -2.8 -6.4 -15.8 -19.8
122.5 99.8 111.1 110.1 107.2 105.0 111.1 108.9 110.3 116.6 105.4 111.0
7.8 -0.7 2.3 1.7 -0.7 2.0 6.9 0.7 2.1 0.8 -6.2 0.1
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.4 102.7 110.9 111.3 112.7 118.2 118.1 110.0 128.2 120.2 118.8 128.4
-15.2 -3.6 -8.0 -7.1 -2.6 5.8 0.3 -1.5 14.5 0.4 11.0 17.7
98.6 115.1 124.4 119.1 138.9 156.1 144.3 124.6 145.0 138.8 146.0 156.1
-25.6 -6.5 -13.7 -17.4 1.5 21.5 7.4 5.1 24.9 8.7 31.5 49.5
109.5 97.7 105.6 108.2 102.2 103.0 107.7 104.2 121.5 112.7 107.9 117.3
-10.6 -2.1 -5.0 -1.7 -4.7 -1.9 -3.1 -4.3 10.2 -3.3 2.4 5.7
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
122.3 109.5 121.0 119.5 116.3 121.9 120.9P 117.9P -
14.9 6.6 9.1 7.4 3.2 3.1 2.4P 7.2P -
135.5 129.1 143.8 135.2 135.5 148.5 145.9P 133.7P -
37.4 12.2 15.6 13.5 -2.4 -4.9 1.1P 7.3P -
117.0 101.7 111.9 113.2 108.7 111.2 110.8P 111.6P -
6.8 4.1 6.0 4.6 6.4 8.0 2.9P 7.1P -
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2009
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
20,718
3,735
16,983
9,111
109.3
110.4
Manufacturing
2009
I ll III IV
5,033 4,942 5,591 5,152
932 696 1,345 763
4,101 4,246 4,246 4,389
1,992 2,212 2,321 2,586
97.0 110.4 107.7 122.2
98.7 112.7 107.5 122.6
2010
I ll
5,563 6,136
525 409
5,038 5,727
2,956 3,509
121.7 137.5
119.6 148.1
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,575 1,682 1,775 1,457 1,377 2,108 2,494 1,340 1,757 1,541 1,942 1,669
232 518 181 91 96 508 1,073 71 200 84 433 246
1,344 1,164 1,594 1,366 1,280 1,600 1,421 1,268 1,557 1,458 1,509 1,422
714 531 746 678 658 883 754 653 914 836 941 810
89.0 95.8 106.1 105.0 107.0 119.1 101.9 100.7 120.4 112.4 121.4 132.9
85.2 97.8 113.1 110.9 104.2 123.0 107.5 98.2 116.8 109.1 116.3 142.3
2010
1,752 1,630 2,181 1,823 2,168 2,145 2,017 1,790
169 107 249 127 122 160 105 102
1,583 1,523 1,932 1,696 2,046 1,986 1,912 1,688
1,010 880 1,065 1,053 1,331 1,125 1,070 911
107.6 114.5 142.9 131.9 133.0 147.6 136.2 140.8
111.6 105.7 141.5 143.1 145.7 155.4 144.0 137.1
-11.8
61.7
-27.2
-8.2
-5.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
2009
Y-o-Y change (%) -19.9
2009
I ll III IV
-35.5 -17.7 3.4 20.0
150.8 29.9 280.2 -27.2
-44.8 -22.3 -16.0 35.2
-59.1 -27.6 -19.4 51.5
-18.3 -12.9 -9.9 10.0
-12.7 -8.0 -6.4 6.4
2010
I ll
10.5 24.2
-43.7 -41.2
22.9 34.9
48.4 58.6
25.5 24.5
21.2 31.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-49.1 -27.5 -25.5 -27.4 -25.4 -2.0 6.1 -19.6 26.5 -7.9 56.2 21.2
56.5 661.0 16.8 -4.1 8.9 44.5 498.5 -17.4 127.5 -79.0 110.1 -44.5
-54.4 -48.3 -28.4 -28.5 -27.1 -11.1 -34.6 -19.7 19.7 14.3 45.5 52.4
-64.6 -65.8 -42.6 -39.1 -26.6 -16.6 -38.1 -30.7 27.3 16.5 74.6 79.5
-21.8 -12.4 -20.2 -18.5 -16.1 -3.7 -18.3 -15.6 5.3 -0.5 10.1 20.8
-20.7 -6.1 -11.4 -9.2 -15.8 1.1 -10.9 -9.9 1.6 -5.3 4.0 20.1
2010
11.2 -3.1 22.9 25.1 57.5 1.8 -19.1 33.6
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 26.8 -68.6 -90.2 42.5
17.8 30.9 21.3 24.2 59.8 24.1 34.6 33.1
41.4 65.7 42.7 57.0 102.3 27.3 42.0 39.6
20.9 19.5 34.7 25.6 24.3 23.9 33.7 39.8
31.0 8.1 25.1 29.0 39.8 26.3 34.0 39.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
October 2010
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
32,393
52,562
107,011
50,771
51,914
Public
89,863
2009
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completed (total)
2009
I ll llI lV
19,130 23,628 22,106 25,000
6,570 8,665 7,875 9,284
11,544 13,577 13,029 14,412
18,104 26,392 19,719 42,795
9,219 17,747 8,826 14,980
8,263 7,760 9,971 25,920
2010
I ll
20,066 24,196
7,317 9,171
11,870 14,011
16,848 24,649
7,646 6,746
8,335 16,453
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,063 6,102 6,964 7,433 7,227 8,971 6,988 6,719 8,398 7,301 8,060 9,639
2,150 2,039 2,381 2,636 2,597 3,431 2,362 2,427 3,085 2,585 2,780 3,919
3,623 3,751 4,170 4,416 4,208 4,953 4,252 3,929 4,848 4,354 4,854 5,204
5,674 4,949 7,481 7,513 7,151 11,728 6,009 4,660 9,050 10,570 14,538 17,688
2,679 2,758 3,782 5,752 4,434 7,561 3,314 1,756 3,756 4,700 5,101 5,179
2,728 2,065 3,471 1,488 2,596 3,677 2,398 2,807 4,766 5,616 8,853 11,451
6,414 6,051 7,602 7,355 7,784 9,057 7,635 7,376
2,222 2,236 2,859 2,623 2,858 3,690 2,798 2,639
3,924 3,589 4,357 4,473 4,564 4,973 4,495 4,410
6,643 4,615 5,590 6,418 8,354 9,877 7,346 4,010
2,286 2,109 3,252 1,735 1,613 3,398 3,830 1,251
4,074 2,163 2,099 4,356 6,521 5,576 3,315 2,640
3.3
21.2
3.0
60.9
-21.9
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
2009
Y-o-Y change (%) -5.7
2009
I ll llI lV
4.3 6.4 -1.2 3.7
24.5 31.9 21.3 10.7
-5.3 -5.9 -11.8 0.4
-12.0 -1.1 7.6 11.6
33.1 182.9 78.9 11.6
-37.3 -60.2 -14.3 17.3
2010
I ll
4.9 2.4
11.4 5.8
2.8 3.2
-6.9 -6.6
-17.1 -62.0
0.9 112.0
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.5 11.2 3.1 5.5 -1.6 14.6 -2.8 -8.2 6.8 -5.9 3.2 12.9
25.2 34.2 16.7 34.0 16.8 44.4 16.6 14.1 31.9 3.5 8.1 18.3
-11.4 1.0 -5.0 -5.2 -11.4 -1.3 -11.6 -18.9 -5.4 -10.1 1.7 9.8
0.3 -19.0 -14.9 -10.7 -17.9 22.7 -1.8 -27.0 55.3 28.8 78.8 -19.6
64.4 39.7 13.8 234.8 70.5 286.7 135.8 6.7 99.6 90.8 63.3 -33.9
-31.2 -47.3 -34.5 -77.1 -55.5 -48.9 -42.7 -36.6 57.4 16.2 92.5 -9.6
5.8 -0.8 9.2 -1.1 7.8 1.0 9.3 9.8
3.4 9.6 20.1 -0.5 10.0 7.5 18.4 8.7
8.3 -4.3 4.5 1.3 8.5 0.4 5.7 12.2
17.1 -6.7 -25.3 -14.6 16.8 -15.8 22.2 -13.9
-14.7 -23.5 -14.0 -69.8 -63.6 -55.1 15.6 -28.8
49.4 4.7 -39.5 192.8 151.2 51.7 38.2 -5.9
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.1 111.4 112.3 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.4 116.2 116.6
5.3 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.2
110.7 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.5 115.7 116.2 116.9 118.0
101.3 101.3 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.4 102.6 102.3 102.4 102.6 103.1
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.2 115.1 115.1 114.6 114.0 113.8 113.6 112.7 111.1 110.4
6.3 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -1.8 -3.4 -4.2
119.1 119.3 119.7 119.7 119.9 119.7 119.9 120.2 120.5 120.3 118.7 116.0
103.6 103.4 103.3 102.8 102.6 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.4 100.8 99.1 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.5 115.4 117.6 120.3 122.1 123.2 123.9 124.7 126.1 127.0
-3.9 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 2.7 5.5 7.6 8.8 9.6 10.3 11.3 11.6
113.7 113.9 115.3 117.3 118.4 120.5 121.8 122.8 123.6 124.1 124.7 125.2
94.1 93.9 94.6 95.9 96.3 97.7 98.3 98.7 98.9 98.9 99.0 98.9
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
127.4 127.1 127.3 127.1 127.7 128.2 129.3 129.6 -
11.3 10.3 9.7 8.6 7.9 7.1 6.7 5.9 -
126.2 127.7 128.9 130.1 131.0 132.0 133.2 133.6 -
99.3 100.0 100.6 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 -
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 -
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
62
October 2010
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2008 2009 P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
-5,776.3 42,667.6
5,669.1 56,127.6
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
422,007.3 363,533.6
435,274.7 323,084.5
-16,671.5 -17,202.7
5,900.0 4,553.6
-673.9 -810.9
2008
I II III IV
-4,866.4 -411.5 -8,329.7 7,831.3
-1,375.4 5,526.4 -3,230.5 4,748.6
99,444.5 114,492.0 115,000.1 93,070.6
106,052.9 114,792.8 122,901.0 91,528.0
-4,936.9 -4,460.5 -5,837.8 -1,436.3
1,979.7 -521.1 1,503.3 2,938.1
-533.8 -956.3 -764.7 1,580.9
2009P
I II III IV
8,618.2 13,097.4 10,395.5 10,556.5
8,308.8 17,576.0 14,702.5 15,540.3
74,421.4 90,360.4 94,780.5 103,971.3
71,417.5 73,970.2 84,845.1 92,851.8
-1,926.2 -4,167.7 -5,334.5 -5,774.3
922.3 292.7 1,690.7 1,647.9
1,313.3 -603.6 -663.2 -857.4
2010P
I II
1,335.2 10,337.9
7,434.7 15,710.4
101,092.6 120,274.0
98,131.4 105,855.1
-6,041.0 -4,165.9
756.0 -753.5
-814.5 -453.1
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,343.6 -2,372.0 -150.8 -1,578.8 -566.7 1,734.0 -2,433.9 -4,676.2 -1,219.6 4,644.8 2,408.2 778.3
-935.1 -524.2 83.9 1,733.1 367.0 3,426.3 487.2 -2,926.8 -790.9 2,102.2 1,230.4 1,416.0
32,274.6 31,178.2 35,991.8 37,850.2 39,383.2 37,258.6 40,961.2 36,610.6 37,428.3 37,111.1 28,841.6 27,117.9
36,318.0 32,624.3 37,110.6 38,260.4 38,704.5 37,827.9 42,952.5 40,420.4 39,528.1 36,098.8 28,853.6 26,575.6
-1,957.3 -2,205.7 -773.9 -1,072.9 -1,215.3 -2,172.3 -2,719.6 -1,962.9 -1,155.3 180.5 -70.0 -1,546.8
840.3 792.3 347.1 -1,914.2 563.5 829.6 350.0 427.4 725.9 1,590.6 757.4 590.1
-291.5 -434.4 192.1 -324.8 -281.9 -349.6 -551.5 -213.9 0.7 771.5 490.4 319.0
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,612.3 3,585.8 6,644.7 4,274.1 3,442.6 5,380.7 4,419.5 1,922.1 4,053.9 4,757.3 4,277.7 1,521.5
-1,762.2 3,100.1 6,970.9 6,105.2 4,872.3 6,598.5 6,114.5 3,319.5 5,268.5 5,675.1 5,842.3 4,022.9
21,133.4 25,397.1 27,890.8 30,326.5 27,823.8 32,210.0 31,908.5 28,949.6 33,922.4 33,970.0 33,991.6 36,009.6
24,898.8 22,598.1 23,920.6 24,873.8 23,407.0 25,689.3 27,679.8 27,408.2 29,757.1 30,396.5 29,534.7 32,920.5
-710.5 -540.4 -675.3 -1,117.3 -1,524.4 -1,526.0 -1,898.0 -1,803.4 -1,633.1 -1,312.6 -1,662.7 -2,799.0
596.4 510.5 -184.6 -803.1 389.6 706.2 511.1 617.7 561.9 559.4 390.0 698.5
264.0 515.6 533.7 89.3 -294.9 -398.0 -308.1 -211.7 -143.4 -164.6 -291.9 -400.9
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-630.8 167.6 1,798.4 1,421.6 3,818.4 5,097.9 5,817.3 2,073.8
1,376.4 1,557.9 4,500.4 5,124.4 4,171.4 6,414.6 7,160.4 3,694.6
30,739.4 33,041.6 37,311.6 39,308.6 38,895.3 42,070.1 40,681.9 36,965.4
31,517.1 31,055.6 35,558.6 35,509.1 34,913.6 35,432.5 35,438.7 35,246.9
-2,164.4 -1,777.9 -2,098.7 -1,850.8 -642.7 -1,672.4 -1,497.0 -1,783.7
465.4 547.9 -257.3 -1.378.3 298.3 326.5 437.3 608.8
-308.2 -160.3 -346.0 -473.7 -8.6 29.2 -283.4 -445.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
63
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
-50,083.6 26,447.9
-15,632.6 -9,065.8
-2,405.6 50,681.6
-14,769.9 -5,538.1
-17,384.8 -10,817.1
109.3 1,187.3
56,446.0 -69,061.1
-586.1 -54.4
I ll III IV
1,990.3 -3,160.7 -6,286.4 -42,626.8
-5,781.5 -4,140.0 -3,661.1 -2,050.0
-4,401.5 8,356.7 -9,421.3 3,060.5
-1,249.5 -1,240.7 -3,550.4 -8,729.3
13,533.2 -5,909.9 10,564.1 -35,572.2
-110.4 -226.8 -217.7 664.2
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
-973.9 -2,145.5 1,733.0 800.3
2009P I II III IV
-1,399.2 8,682.0 14,399.1 4,766.0
-2,045.4 -172.1 -2,137.6 -4,710.7
3,532.3 16,740.2 19,914.7 10,494.4
-4,893.6 -614.9 -1,296.5 1,266.9
1,282.5 -7,566.0 -2,258.0 -2,275.6
725.0 294.8 176.5 -9.0
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,886.9 -16,615.0
1,798.4 -2,237.6 -907.7 1,292.5
2010P I II III
5,713.7 -4,714.0
-2,645.7 -2,235.2
10,547.5 6,789.0
407.9 -1,144.7
-2,420.4 -8,150.2
-175.6 27.1
-6,863.3 -5,600.2
-185.6 -23.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,171.9 202.3 616.1 -835.4 -113.8 -2,211.5 -6,014.3 5,113.2 -5,385.3 -23,462.3 -13,488.5 -5,676.0
-3,002.7 -90.9 -2,687.9 -2,561.0 -683.4 -895.6 -1,465.4 -1,428.7 -767.0 -978.9 -615.2 -455.9
-949.8 -3,144.5 -307.2 4,093.1 9,168.1 -4,904.5 -7,025.3 -343.4 -2,052.6 5,004.0 -2,524.0 580.5
-130.4 -298.1 -821.0 -560.3 -627.6 -52.8 -551.2 -69.3 -2,929.9 -3,888.3 -1,347.1 -3,493.9
5,313.5 3,750.7 4,469.0 -1,720.5 -7,921.8 3,732.4 3,204.5 7,062.4 297.2 -23,952.6 -9,215.7 -2,403.9
-58.7 -14.9 -36.8 -86.7 -49.1 -91.0 -176.9 -107.8 67.0 353.5 213.5 97.2
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
-264.4 466.6 -1,176.1 2.9 -1,584.1 -564.3 -723.2 778.2 1,678.0 -1,170.6 176.1 1,794.8
2009P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4,655.2 -3,216.5 -2,837.9 2,193.3 6,707.8 -219.1 2,200.5 5,296.9 6,901.7 1,582.9 1,544.2 1,638.9
-538.7 -785.8 -720.9 112.4 -574.5 290.0 -1,323.9 -276.1 -537.6 -509.0 -2,835.0 -1,366.7
5,678.8 161.4 -2,307.9 7,133.0 4,263.5 5,343.7 7,940.1 4,063.5 7,911.1 6,130.5 3,389.4 974.5
-248.5 -2,312.2 -2,323.9 -679.8 1,341.1 -1,276.2 -272.7 -721.0 -302.8 -572.9 848.7 991.1
-379.9 -609.6 2,272.0 -4,532.5 1,586.6 -4,620.1 -4,379.0 2,177.0 -56.0 -3,477.9 193.9 1,008.4
143.5 338.7 242.8 160.2 91.1 43.5 236.0 53.5 -113.0 12.2 -52.8 31.6
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -11,218.1 -7,966.2 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
1,445.7 890.7 -538.0 -1,023.3 98.2 -1,312.5 -1,046.4 -123.8 262.5 1,626.0 -184.5 -149.0
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
4,631.0 -433.0 1,515.7 8,557.3 -12,037.5 -1,233.8 201.2 -203.3
-1,679.9 -763.5 -202.3 -1.216.1 -548.7 -470.4 -1,899.6 -1,249.5
316.0 2,442.1 7,789.4 5,496.5 -592.6 1,885.1 8,676.4 1,413.6
49.8 254.5 103.6 -250.2 -445.5 -449.0 -80.0 92.6
6,015.1 -2,322.9 -6,112.6 4,647.6 -10,522.0 -2,245.8 -6,495.4 -517.9
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9
-5,250.9 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7,083.3 -3,393.3 -6,020.9 -1,511.0
1,250.7 -449.3 -987.0 -688.7 1,135.8 -470.8 2.4 -359.5
Period
2008 2009P 2010P 2008
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
64
October 2010
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
Errors and omissions
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2008 2009
109.7 112.8
109.9 113.6
109.6 112.2
108.6 112.5
111.1 110.9
112.5 111.9
109.5 109.2
143.7 137.7
2008 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.2 111.0 111.1 111.0 110.7 110.7
112.9 112.2 112.1 111.7 110.3 110.2
110.1 110.3 110.4 110.6 110.9 111.0
109.2 109.4 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.9
115.5 115.2 114.8 114.4 111.8 109.9
118.1 117.6 117.0 116.7 113.3 110.9
112.1 110.5 115.6 124.5 120.4 115.0
156.8 149.9 153.4 159.7 149.1 140.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 -
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 -
2008 2009
4.7 2.8
6.2 3.4
3.7 2.4
8.6 -0.2
10.8 -0.5
21.8 -0.2
36.2 -4.1
2008 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.9 5.6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1
9.3 8.4 7.1 6.3 5.1 4.4
3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.0
4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.6
12.5 12.3 11.3 10.7 7.8 5.6
16.1 15.6 14.4 14.0 9.9 6.9
25.1 21.9 27.4 38.6 31.5 25.0
50.6 42.6 42.6 47.1 32.0 22.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 -
Y-o-Y change (%) 4.2 3.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2008 2009
24,347 24,394
23,577 23,506
3,963 3,836
17,906 17,998
3.2 3.6
16,206 16,454
9,007 9,390
5,079 5,101
2,121 1,963
2008 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,673 24,380 24,456 24,582 24,566 24,032
23,903 23,617 23,734 23,847 23,816 23,245
3,975 3,899 3,928 3,945 3,897 3,888
18,088 17,872 17,951 18,005 18,086 17,935
3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3
16,363 16,104 16,221 16,314 16,377 16,189
9,054 9,107 9,142 9,138 9,111 9,068
5,163 4,970 5,015 5,034 5,071 5,082
2,146 2,027 2,064 2,142 2,195 2,040
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058
17,796 5.0 17,762 4.9 18,047 4.1 18,285 3.8 18,499 3.2 18,422 3.5 18,489 3.7 18,175 3.3 Y-o-Y change (%)
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775
2008 2009
0.5 0.2
0.6 -0.3
-1.3 -3.2
1.3 0.5
-
1.5 1.5
4.5 4.3
-1.8 0.4
-2.6 -7.4
2008 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2
0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1
-1.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.3 -2.2 -3.3
1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6
-
1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5
4.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6
-1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.7 -2.0 -1.8
-2.4 -2.3 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -6.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1
Source: Statistics Korea
66
October 2010
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2008 2009
52,272.8 61,739.6
307,273.6 357,344.1
1,367,713.4 1,508,550.4
1,794,841.2 1,937,336.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,071.5 1,897,923.7 1,913,084.5 1,925,418.1 1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,649.2 2,113.039.3
Y-o-Y change (%) 2008 2009
7.7 18.1
-1.8 16.3
14.3 10.3
11.9 7.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
68
October 2010
Editor-in-Chief Yoon, Yeo-Kwon (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Lim, Keun-Hyuk (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr