Vol. 33 | No. 1
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues Comprehensive measures to counter inflation
42
Economic News Briefing
46
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview Korea’s real GDP growth returned to normal, as domestic conditions such as employment and household income continued to improve amid brisk exports. Mining and manufacturing production in November gained 1.4 percent month-on-month, with the manufacturing sector posting strong performance across the board, while service output rose for the second consecutive month amid recovery in consumption demand. Consumer goods sales posted a month-on-month increase for a second month in a row in November, backed by increasing sales of durable goods such as automobiles. Facilities investment stayed on a downward track month-on-month in November, as once soaring machinery investment fell in the process of returning to normal. Construction completed shifted to a rise month-on-month in five months, affected by a budget spending increase at the end of the year. Although rising raw material prices pushed up imports in terms of value in December, exports rose at a faster pace compared with the previous month, leading to an expansion in trade surplus. Employment continued to improve in November, as the total number of workers hired posted a year-on-year gain of more than 300,000 for the second straight month, and the unemployment rate declined from a month earlier. The consumer price in December climbed at a faster pace month-on-month from 3.3 percent to 3.5 percent affected by rising international oil prices. Despite stable core consumer prices, which went up 2.0 percent, basic necessities prices accelerated an increase from 3.6 percent to 3.9 percent spurred by surging vegetable and oil product prices. In December stock prices rose and foreign exchange rates fell, despite looming North Korean risks and continuing worries over the European sovereign debt crisis, as expectations of global economic recovery grew. Housing prices turned to an increase in the Seoul metropolitan area in December for the first time in eight months, while rental prices continued to rise, however at a slightly slower pace compared with the previous month. To sum up, although the global economy has made a steady recovery, there are still uncertainties, as the possibility of the European fiscal crisis and danger from North Korea linger, and inflationary pressure in emerging economies including China rises in line with volatile international commodity prices and global liquidity excess. The Korean government will go on with macroeconomic policies which facilitate sustainable growth, while renewing efforts to restructure the economy and monitor the risk factors. On the other hand, the government will be fully prepared for commodity and necessity price increases so that they will not lead to inflationary expectations. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy is expected to post steady recovery, as major economies as well as emerging countries including China continued an upward track. However, there are growing uncertainties, as international oil prices has been on the rise and worries over China’s inflation have increased amid persisting European debt concerns.
US
US real GDP in the third quarter of 2010 has been revised up to 2.6 percent (annualized q-oq), with signs of recovering industrial production detected. In November, while retail sales slowed down an increase, up 0.8 percent month-on-month, industrial production rebounded 0.4 percent, and the ISM manufacturing index rose. ISM manufacturing index (base=50) 56.2 (Jun 2010)
55.5 (Jul)
56.3 (Aug)
54.4 (Sep)
56.9 (Oct)
56.6 (Nov)
57.0 (Dec)
In November, both new and existing home sales shifted to an increase month-on-month by 5.5 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. The Federal Open Market Committee announced on December 12, 2010 that it would carry out QE2 of US$ 600 billion bond buying as planned, as it confirmed that the economic recovery, although steady, was not strong enough to lower the unemployment rate. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
20101
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Real GDP2
-2.6
-4.9
-0.7
1.6
5.0
3.7
1.7
2.6
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
-1.2
-0.5
-1.6
2.0
0.9
1.9
2.2
2.4
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.1
-35.2
-7.5
-1.7
-1.4
7.8
17.2
10.0
-
-
- Construction investment for housing
-22.9
-36.2
-19.7
10.6
-0.8
-12.3
25.7
-27.3
-
-
Industrial production
-9.3
-4.7
-2.7
2.0
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.4
-0.2
0.4
Retail sales
-6.3
-1.7
0.0
1.9
1.5
2.2
1.1
0.8
1.7
0.8
5.4
-2.2
3.7
10.5
13.1
-13.9
8.4
-25.3
-2.2
5.6
New non-farm payroll employment (thousand)3
-395
-753
-477
-261
-90
87
190
-30
172
39
Consumer prices
-0.3
-0.6
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.4
-0.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
Existing home sales
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce
4
January 2011
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s economy, while both domestic demand and exports continued to rise, experienced liquidity expansion, which led to growing worries over inflation. The Chinese government took tightening measures such as a 25 basis point rate hike on December 25, 2010 and a reserve requirement ratio increase of 50 basis points on December 10, in line with rising consumer and producer prices, up 5.0 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. M2 growth (y-o-y, %) 18.5 (Jun 2010)
17.6 (Jul)
19.2 (Aug)
19.0 (Sep)
19.3 (Oct)
19.5 (Nov)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009 Real GDP
Annual
Q1
Q2
20101 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
9.1
6.2
7.9
9.1
10.7
11.9
10.3
9.6
-
-
Industrial production
11.0
5.1
9.1
12.4
18.0
19.6
17.6
13.5
13.1
13.3
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
30.5
28.6
33.6
33.3
30.5
26.4
25.5
24.5
24.4
24.9
Retail sales
15.5
14.9
15.0
15.4
16.9
17.9
18.5
18.4
18.6
18.7
Exports
-16.0
-19.7
-23.4
-20.3
0.2
28.7
40.9
32.5
22.9
34.9
Consumer prices
-0.7
-0.6
-1.5
-1.3
0.7
2.2
2.9
3.5
4.4
5.1
Producer prices
-5.4
-4.6
-7.2
-7.7
-2.1
5.2
6.8
4.5
5.0
6.1
1. Preliminary Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s real GDP growth has been revised up to 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2010. Although exports kept decelerating a rise, industrial production rebounded in six months in November along with increasing retail sales, showing signs of improving domestic demand. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009 Annual
Real GDP
20101
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
-6.3
-5.4
2.7
-0.3
1.4
1.7
0.7
1.1
-
-
Industrial and mining production
-21.8
-20.1
6.6
5.3
5.9
7.0
1.5
-1.8
-2.0
1.0
Retail sales (y-o-y, %)
-2.32
-3.9
-2.8
-1.9
-0.7
3.8
3.7
3.2
-0.2
1.3
Exports (y-o-y, %)
-34.2
-47.8
-39.9
-35.5
-8.7
44.8
35.2
19.0
8.8
-
-1.4
-0.1
-1.0
-2.2
-2.0
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.2
0.1
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Preliminary Source: Japan’s Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
Eurozone’s real economy continued to recover, while there were worries over a possible European fiscal crisis in the zone’s major economies as well as in peripheral ones. The European Council agreed to introduce a permanent crisis management mechanism on December 16, 2010. Moody’s degraded Ireland’s sovereign rating by five notches to Baa1 on December 20, 2010, while Fitch cut the credit ratings of Portugal and Hungary on December 23. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Preliminary Source: Eurostat
6
January 2011
20101
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-4.0
-2.5
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
1.0
-14.8
-9.3
-1.7
2.7
1.3
2.4
2.3
Oct
Nov
0.4
-
-
0.9
0.6
-
-2.4
-1.1
-0.1
-0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
-
-18.1
-21.1
-22.7
-18.7
-9.3
12.9
22.3
22.7
20.2
-
0.3
1.0
0.2
-0.4
0.4
1.1
1.5
1.7
1.9
1.9
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) increased 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Private consumption2 (Seasonally adjusted)3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2009
2010 1
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
1.3
0.2
-4.4
-1.0
0.7
5.8
6.3
3.7
3.3
-
-
0.3
3.3
1.7
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.3
3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales increased for the second consecutive month in November, as the sales of durable and non-durable goods shifted to a rise from the previous month, the former from a 2.2 percent drop to a 6.5 percent increase, the latter from a 0.7 percent fall to a 2.9 percent rise. On a month-on-month basis, consumer goods sales gained 2.9 percent backed by the brisk sales of non-durable goods, in particular automobiles, which posted a 6.5 percent increase, while semi-durable goods sales went down 1.5 percent due to a high base effect. On a year-on-year basis, the index rose 6.9 percent, as the sales of durable goods such as automobiles, semi-durable goods such as clothing, and non-durable goods such as gasoline all increased. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Durable goods3 ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods
5
4
2010 1
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
2.6
-4.7
1.5
2.8
10.8
9.9
4.9
7.3
4.2
6.9
-
1.0
5.1
0.3
4.1
0.5
0.0
2.8
0.2
2.9
8.1
-11.9
5.7
7.9
33.9
29.5
5.4
16.7
14.1
12.3
21.8
-20.6
20.1
24.1
76.9
48.6
-2.1
12.0
6.1
4.8
0.3
-1.5
-0.6
-0.7
3.4
2.7
6.9
7.2
12.6
10.2
1.2
-1.4
0.5
1.9
4.1
3.3
3.5
2.9
-4.7
2.7
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at large discounters and supermarkets stayed sluggish, while those at department stores and convenience stores kept strong along with brisk non-store retailing. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers
2
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
3.3
-0.8
0.4
4.2
9.1
9.0
10.4
8.0
12.3
10.9
-2.0
-4.4
-2.9
-3.4
3.2
5.9
3.7
7.4
-1.4
0.5
2.9
-6.6
2.6
3.5
12.6
9.7
1.7
7.0
3.7
6.8
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
January 2011
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Consumer goods sales is projected to continue an upward trend considering positive advanced estimates, increasing household income, and improving consumer sentiment. Household income posted a steady increase while employment continued to recover. Household income (y-o-y, %) -0.7 (Q3 2009)
4.9 (Q4)
7.3 (Q1, 2010)
7.7 (Q2)
6.1 (Q3)
Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 473 (Jul 2010)
386 (Aug)
249 (Sep)
316 (Oct)
303 (Nov)
The consumer sentiment index has been well above the base, 100, which reflects positive attitudes of the consumers towards the economy. Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI, base=100) 112 (Jul 2010)
110 (Aug)
109 (Sep)
108 (Oct)
110 (Nov)
109 (Dec)
Both domestic credit card spending and department store sales continued a steady rise year-on-year, with the former rising 14.5 percent and the latter 9.7 percent. Gasoline sales and consumer goods imports posted a slower increase in advanced estimates. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 17.1 (Jul 2010)
17.2 (Aug)
10.6 (Sep)
19.5 (Oct)
16.0 (Nov)
14.5 (Dec)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 10.1 (Jul 2010)
8.5 (Aug)
6.4 (Sep)
13.3 (Oct)
10.1 (Nov)
9.7 (Dec)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) 8.2 (Jul 2010)
3.9 (Aug)
18.0 (Sep)
0.0 (Oct)
1.7 (Nov)
2.6 (Dec)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 5.3 (Jul 2010)
8.6 (Aug)
10.5 (Sep)
-0.7 (Oct)
11.6 (Nov)
-0.8 (Dec)
Consumer goods imports (y-o-y, %) 28.3 (Jul 2010)
31.7 (Aug)
9.4 (Sep)
24.6 (Oct)
31.8 (Nov)
15.5 (Dec)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for December data)
It is likely that consumer spending will grow at a limited pace given price increases in raw materials and agricultural products, which can possibly raise necessities prices, and spreading foot and mouth disease. Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 2.6 (Jun 2010)
2.6 (Jul)
2.6 (Aug)
3.6 (Sep)
4.1 (Oct)
3.3 (Nov)
3.5 (Dec)
Dubai crude (US$/barrel) 74.1 (Jun 2010)
10
January 2011
72.6 (Jul)
74.2 (Aug)
75.2 (Sep)
80.3 (Oct)
83.6 (Nov)
88.9 (Dec)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2010 posted a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.5 percent and a year-on-year gain of 24.3 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
- Machinery - Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2009
20101
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-1.0
-9.1
-23.1
-17.3
-7.0
13.3
29.9
30.2
24.3
-
-
-10.5
9.0
10.8
5.3
2.4
9.1
5.5
-1.8
-13.0
-23.2
-21.5
-14.8
10.0
32.5
38.7
36.6
1.8
4.7
-22.6
-2.9
22.9
24.2
19.4
4.8
-11.2
3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in November, while rising 4.5 percent year-on-year, fell 0.6 percent monthon-month, as once soaring machinery investment led by semiconductor equipment continued to decelerate a rise. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Facility investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2009
2010 1
Annual
Annual
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
0.8
-8.2
10.0
25.5
24.5
27.6
11.6
9.7
4.5
-
-
12.1
1.4
6.0
7.0
-3.7
-9.7
-0.6
- Machinery
0.6
-12.8
8.7
29.3
32.2
36.8
19.2
13.3
4.1
- Transportation equipment
1.1
11.7
15.0
11.9
0.0
-0.8
-10.5
-2.6
6.4
-13.8
-11.8
20.0
10.5
24.2
-0.7
4.5
11.4
-14.2
2
Domestic machinery orders (Seasonally adjusted)
-
-
-9.9
-1.4
16.7
-0.8
5.9
-15.9
-3.4
5.0
61.7
-27.2
-43.7
-41.2
-72.2
-16.2
20.8
-76.5
-15.5
-19.9
35.2
22.9
34.9
21.9
7.1
10.8
3.7
- Machinery imports
6.4
-16.6
7.2
48.1
51.4
40.0
24.5
33.0
21.4
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
-1.7
-4.0
12.8
21.7
14.4
5.7
-2.4
7.3
4.3
2
- Public - Private
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
Facility investment is projected to improve given rising capital goods imports and positive investment sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited with once soaring investment in semiconductor equipment getting back to normal.
2010 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Capital goods imports (US$ billion)
1.19
1.18
1.15
1.20
1.23
1.311
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections
106
106
106
105
102
103
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
12
January 2011
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2010 rose 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, while falling 2.3 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
-2.8
4.4
2.8
5.1
-
-
5.9
1.8
- Building construction
-4.6
-1.8
-9.6
-2.4
- Civil engineering works
-0.2
13.3
26.1
15.7
Construction investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
20101 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
4.4
5.0
2.3
-2.9
-2.3
-0.7
-0.1
1.3
-3.6
1.3
1.2
2.5
1.7
-6.3
-9.7
9.7
7.5
3.1
1.1
8.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction completed (constant value) in November, helped by an increase in SOC budget spending at the end of 2010, posted a month-on-month rise of 2.4 percent, turning upward in five months, while dropping 10.1 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Construction completed(constant value) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Building construction - Civil engineering works Construction orders (current value) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
2010 1
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
-8.1
1.7
5.0
-
-
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
2.0
-3.9
-3.8
-14.7
-8.9
-10.1
-1.4
5.4
-2.2
-2.9
-3.5
-9.7
2.4
Q1
-10.3
-6.5
0.7
-0.1
-8.5
-11.2
-19.5
-13.0
-13.7
-4.0
16.2
11.3
4.8
2.8
8.1
-7.5
-2.7
-4.9
-7.6
3.0
11.6
-6.9
-6.6
-5.0
-18.4
-59.6
-48.7
-
-
19.8
-22.5
11.5
-0.2
27.7
-56.7
56.4
-15.4
-16.0
17.0
-0.4
60.1
-2.5
11.1
-38.9
-48.8
13.5
41.9
3.7
-14.2
-51.5
-8.7
-46.3
-80.3
-48.5
-20.1
-12.9
13.1
36.5
47.4
-14.3
-33.0
15.9
25.6
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment in November posted a month-on-month rise, affected by temporary factors such as increased year-end SOC spending, despite ongoing low investment and decreasing construction orders. However, recent signs of recovering housing markets may lift investment sentiment.
14
January 2011
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in December increased 23.1 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$44.34 billion. Backed by continuing global economic recovery, exports continued to post a more than 20 percent rise, with average daily exports increasing month-on-month. By export category, major items such as steel, petroleum products, automobiles, and semiconductors posted a substantial increase. Major export increase (%) Steel (34.4), petroleum products (34.2), automobiles (24.5), semiconductors (22.7)
By regional category, exports to both emerging countries such as China and developed countries such as the US and Japan all soared, while exports to EU shifted to a rise from the previous month’s drop. Regional export increase (preliminary, y-o-y, %) US (30.4), Japan (31.2), China (21.9), ASEAN (19.9), EU (12.8) (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
365.53
74.42
90.36
94.78 103.97 467.40 101.09 120.25 117.12 128.95
-13.9
-25.2
-21.1
-17.6
Q4
Annual
11.7
28.6
1.49
1.69
Q1
Q2
Q41
35.8
33.1
23.6
24.0
1.51
1.76
1.69
1.30
1.10
1.30
1.32
323.09
71.42
73.97
84.85
-25.8
-32.7
-35.6
-31.0
1.4
31.8
37.4
43.0
1.16
1.06
1.06
1.18
1.33
1.54
1.46
1.55
92.85 425.68
Q3
Nov
Dec1
41.29
44.34
21.5
23.1
1.79
1.72
1.81
98.13 105.74 105.69 116.12
38.50
40.60
24.6
25.1
30.8
23.3
1.52
1.61
1.60
1.66
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in December increased 23.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$40.60 billion. Capital goods imports soared amid the domestic economy recovering, while raw material imports jumped due to rising international commodity prices and growing winter-season demand. Import increase by category (preliminary, y-o-y, %) Raw materials (20.8), capital goods (30.9), consumer goods (15.5)
The current account surplus in December (preliminary) was US$3.74, widening at a faster pace compared with the previous month. The annual surplus hit a record high of US$41.72. (US$ billion) 2009
Trade Balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
January 2011
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Nov
Dec1
40.45
3.00
16.39
9.94
11.12
41.72
2.96
14.51
11.43
12.83
2.67
3.74
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in November rose 1.4% month-on-month and 10.4% year-on-year as the manufacturing sector posted strong performance across the board. By business category, most productions including those of semiconductors and parts (up 1.3%) and metal working (up 6.9%) rose month-on-month, while those of audio-visual communications equipment (down 1.6%) and pharmaceuticals (down 2.9%) went down. As the month-on-month increase of shipment (up 1.6%) exceeded that of inventories (up 0.1%), the manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell for the first time in five months. By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 2.1%) and metal working (up 8.3%) increased month-on-month, while those of audio-visual communications equipment (down 6.3%) and computers (down 4.5%) declined. The inventories of audiovisual communications equipment (up 24.6%) and machinery (up 7.7%) climbed month-onmonth, while those of semiconductors and parts (down 3.1%) and refined petroleum products (down 7.6%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 1.2 percentage points to 80.9 percent from the previous month, as the operating ratios of automobiles and semiconductors picked up. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009 Sep
Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
20101 Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
-
4.2
1.3
5.1
5.0
2.1
-0.3
-4.2
1.4
(y-o-y)
-0.8
11.1
16.2
25.8
19.5
11.9
4.0
13.5
10.4
- Manufacturing
-0.9
11.5
16.8
26.8
20.2
12.2
4.1
13.6
10.6
7.8
14.9
46.3
46.1
27.0
19.9
15.8
12.5
11.1
∙ICT
3
∙Automobiles
-6.8
32.5
14.7
51.0
35.7
16.5
2.8
21.8
12.3
Shipment
-1.7
8.8
12.8
21.8
17.2
11.3
3.8
13.7
11.0
- Domestic demand
-1.8
12.6
12.3
21.2
15.4
8.3
-0.8
10.5
8.0
- Exports
-1.7
4.0
13.3
22.5
19.7
15.4
10.1
18.0
15.0
Inventory
4
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
-8.0
-14.2
-8.0
6.6
15.6
18.4
18.4
18.3
16.2
74.6
79.9
78.4
80.5
83.0
82.6
81.5
79.7
80.9
3.1
3.6
4.0
5.1
5.8
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to continue an upward track, backed by brisk exports, and strong production of automobiles and semiconductors. Average daily exports (US$ billion) 1.66 (July 2010)
1.55 (Aug)
1.88 (Sep)
1.84 (Oct)
1.72 (Nov)
1.81 (Dec1)
Automobile production (thousand) 378 (July 2010) 1. Preliminary
18
January 2011
282 (Aug)
339 (Sep)
387 (Oct)
389 (Nov)
397 (Dec1)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Although entertainment, cultural & sports services fell 5.0 percent due to the previous month’s high base effect, service activity in November increased 0.8 percent month-onmonth as robust domestic consumption supported wholesale & retail sales, publishing & broadcasting services, and educational services. Despite sluggishness in real estate & renting, professional, scientific & technical services, and educational services, service activity in November rose 3.6 percent year-on-year as financial services and transportation services showed solid growth helped by increased equity transactions and strong exports. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2009 Annual
Q1
2010 1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
Service activity index
100
2.0
-0.3
2.4
1.9
3.7
5.7
4.0
2.3
3.0
3.6
- Wholesale & retail
21.8
-0.4
-4.8
-2.2
0.3
5.4
7.4
5.5
4.9
3.5
6.2
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6
-12.7
-10.0
-4.8
1.4
13.9
13.8
9.7
10.8
7.8
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.5
-2.6
-0.6
-2.5
-0.2
1.5
0.9
1.8
4.6
1.6
- Information & communication services
8.4
0.7
-1.4
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.2
0.4
1.7
2.1
3.7
15.3
8.0
6.9
10.3
9.0
5.7
6.5
2.4
1.9
7.0
8.9
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
-4.2
-2.2
6.7
21.3
10.4
-2.7
-16.2
-23.1
-24.1
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.0
-1.7
3.8
0.0
2.0
3.1
2.1
-5.2
-5.0
-2.8
- Business services
2.9
-3.0
-4.9
-6.2
-0.8
0.0
5.4
7.9
7.0
7.3
9.7
10.8
2.8
9.4
16.5
-3.7
-9.6
-0.8
1.0
0.0
-0.4
5.0
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
8.9
8.9
10.4
13.2
11.5
11.1
8.5
5.7
5.1
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
1.4
0.7
0.0
-3.8
-3.5
-0.2
-0.2
12.8
0.2
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.4
-3.8
-4.8
-1.4
2.4
1.3
6.0
5.0
4.4
5.0
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
0.1
9.0
6.0
-0.2
7.2
5.3
0.2
7.3
3.0
- Financial & insurance services
- Educational services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service activity in December is expected to show a gradual increase from the previous month as domestic consumption steadily increases and the Korean stock price index shows strong performance. Meanwhile, service activity is expected to be weighed down by weak construction markets and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
20
January 2011
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
November 2010 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in November increased by 303,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 59.2 percent. By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 284,000), construction (up 50,000) and services (up 32,000) climbed while that in agriculture, forestry & fishery (down 50,000) declined. Hiring in manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, rising more than 0.2 million for the fifth consecutive month. Despite decreasing employment in public administration (down 129,000), the service sector continued to increase employment, helped by a rise in health & welfare (up 157,000), business assistance (up 99,000), and professional, scientific & technical services (up 60,000). By status of workers, despite a decrease in daily workers (down 33,000) and temporary workers (down 187,000), wage workers (up 511,000) continued to expand growth as the number of regular workers (up 731,000) increased. Non-wage workers (down 207,000) including self-employed workers (down 166,000) continued to decline. 2008
2009
Annual Annual Nov Number of employed (million)
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov
23.58 23.51 23.81 22.90 23.74 23.75 23.63 23.04 24.17 24.12 24.17 24.11
Employment rate (%)
59.5
58.6
59.1
57.4
59.3
59.1
58.7
57.0
59.6
59.3
59.4
59.2
(seasonally adjusted)
59.5
58.6
58.5
58.8
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
58.5
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
145
-72
10
-146
-134
-1
-6
132
433
369
316
303
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
182
-34
141
-160
-109
24
110
296
51.8
414
371
353
- Manufacturing
-52
-126
-43
-163
-151
-143
-49
61
172
262
241
284
- Construction
-37
-91
-115
-43
-113
-103
-107
-61
44
92
94
50
- Services
260
179
294
38
154
261
261
313
325
83
54
32
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-37
-38
-151
14
-25
-25
-116
-164
-85
-45
-55
-50
- Wage workers
236
247
413
73
175
356
385
371
623
541
488
511
∙Regular workers
386
383
492
318
313
386
515
651
766
671
652
731
∙Temporary workers
-93
22
186
-136
-5
125
105
-37
42
-26
-81
-187
∙Daily workers
-57
-158
-264
-108
-133
-155
-235
-243
-185
-104
-84
-33
-92
-319
-424
-220
-309
-357
-391
-239
-189
-172
-172
-207
-79
-259
-307
-197
-286
-276
-279
-106
-91
-130
-146
-166
- Male
96
31
81
-23
24
34
89
117
188
207
228
181
- Female
48
-103
-91
-124
-158
-34
-94
15
245
163
87
122
- 15 to 29
-119
-127
-79
-212
-99
-123
-77
-12
-58
-44
-42
-53
- 30 to 39
-26
-173
-142
-159
-213
-169
-149
-42
-13
21
19
17
- 40 to 49
64
-24
-53
8
-27
-30
-46
-21
48
40
25
48
- 50 to 59
207
198
228
193
156
211
230
251
342
295
290
274
18
54
35
23
49
109
37
-44
114
57
23
18
- Non-wage workers ∙Self-employed workers
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
January 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in November decreased by 82,000 year-on-year to 737,000 as people who applied for the census jobs but were on the waiting list gained employment. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) fell 0.3 percentage points to 3.0 percent. By gender, both male unemployment (down 51,000) and female unemployment (down 30,000) declined. By age, unemployment decreased in all age brackets except seniors aged 50 to 59 (up 1,000) and 60 or more (up 12,000). The youth unemployment rate dropped 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, landing at 6.4 percent.
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Q4
Annual Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
Number of unemployed (thousand)
769
757
889
819
908
943
886
817 1,130 868
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-14
24
119
69
107
176
134
60
- Male
-12
25
80
37
83
116
95
-1
-1
40
32
24
60
39
- Female
Q1
873
857
832
737
-75
-13
32
33
-82
25
83 -47
-48
-40
-5
-51
36
139 -29
-35
72
38
-30
222
Unemployment rate (%)
3.2
3.1
3.6
3.3
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.3
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.0
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.2
3.2
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.5
4.3
3.4
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.2
- 15 to 29
7.2
7.0
8.1
7.7
8.6
8.0
8.1
7.6
9.5
7.7
7.6
7.2
7.0
6.4
- 30 to 39
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.0
- 40 to 49
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.4
2.1
- 50 to 59
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.2
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.0
- 60 or more
1.2
1.1
1.6
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.5
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in November was up 257,000 from a year earlier to post 15,910,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) was down 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 61.0 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to housework (up 215,000), education (up 90,000), and rest, time-off and leisure (up 4,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to childcare (down 103,000) decreased.
2008
2009
Annual Q4
Annual Nov
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct Nov
Economically inactive population (million) 15.25 15.37 15.70 15.65 16.09 15.35 15.53 15.83 16.25 15.49115.66 15.77 15.71 15.91 Labor force participation rate (%)
61.5 61.3 60.6 61.1 59.7 61.7 61.3 60.7 59.8 61.8 61.5 61.2 61.4 61.0
(seasonally adjusted)
61.5 61.2 60.6 60.7 60.9 60.9 61.0 60.6 61.0 61.0 61.1 60.9 60.8 60.5
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
297
372
447
451
514
445
374
- Childcare
63
53
40
6
78
48
19
- Housework
61
59
148
262
131
125
100
235
237
175
303
229
234
215
- Education
113
109
31
-40
90
58
11
-36
-74
23
46
54
37
90
- Old age
76
59
88
86
52
102
105
92
193
59
43
28
1
49
- Rest
31
99
123
127
162
112
94
123 -187
-27
15
68
-25
4
Source: Statistics Korea
24
January 2011
456
166
146
128
199
130
257
15 -118 -126 -149 -160 -125 -103
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in December rose with expectations of global economic recovery. Despite a series of international and domestic anxiety factors such as financial instability in the eurozone, concerns over China’s tightening policy, and geopolitical risk on the Korean peninsula, KOSPI broke the 2000-point bar, fueled by positive economic sentiment amid improving employment statistics and the Dow Jones industrial average hitting a year high after strong US economic data. Expecting continuing economic recovery, foreign investors expanded their net-buying position on Korean shares, purchasing 3.6 trillion won in December. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Stock price index
1,904.6
2,051.0
Market capitalization
1,058.6
KOSDAQ Change1
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Change1
+146.4 (+7.7%)
498.4
510.7
+12.3 (+2.5%)
1,141.9
+83.2 (+7.9%)
94.7
98.0
+3.2 (+3.4%)
Average daily trade value
6.7
6.0
-0.7 (-10.4%)
1.9
1.7
-0.2 (-10.5%)
Foreign stock ownership
32.2
32.9
+0.7 (+3.2%)
10.0
10.3
+0.3 (+3.0%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in December decreased 24.9 won from 1,159.7 won at the end of November to wrap up the month at 1,134.8 won. The won/dollar exchange rate fell as geopolitical tension on the Korean peninsula eased and export companies sold dollars at the end of the year. Despite the strong won, the won/yen exchange rate was up 14.6 won month-on-month as concerns over China’s tightening policy and Japanese exporters’ dollar sales at the end of the year contributed to the strong yen. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
2010 Nov
Dec
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,159.7
1,134.8
2.6
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,379.0
1,393.6
-9.3
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
January 2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields increased in December amid concerns over rising inflationary pressure, as the US Treasury Bond yield rallied 49 basis points in December helped by expectations of economic recovery. In addition, worries over inflation and government’s announcement of plans to impose Macro-prudential Stability Levy contributed to the rise. (End-period)
Call rate (1 day)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.26
2.51
2.51
Change1 0
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.66
2.80
2.80
0
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.25
3.19
3.38
+19
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.03
4.03
4.27
+24
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
3.86
3.88
4.08
+20
1. Basis point changes in December 2010 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in October expanded 7.5 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. Despite rising private credit, the year-on-year M2 growth decelerated in October from the previous month’s 7.9 percent due to a smaller money supply from overseas sectors affected by increasing foreign direct investment (FDI). (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2008 M1
Annual
Q1
Q2
2009 Q3
20104
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Oct1
-1.8
-12.4
-0.1
2.1
5.0
16.3
10.8
17.6
18.9
17.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
9.0
405
M2
14.3
13.3
15.3
14.7
13.8
10.1
11.5
10.1
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.8
8.3
7.5
1,660
Lf 3
11.9
11.6
12.8
12.1
11.2 Upper 7
8.8
7.3
7.5
7.4
8.1
8.6
7.9
7.1
2,123
2
1. Balance at end October 2010, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In November, bank deposits turned to a decline as time deposits shifted to a decrease due to the limited inflow of corporate funds into money market funds (MMFs). Decreasing amounts of time deposits led by money outflows from local governments’ account also contributed to the trend. Despite declining redemption of equity funds, asset management company (AMC) deposits slightly increased due to decelerating growth of money market funds (MMFs) affected by the outflow of treasury surplus. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2008
2009
Annual
Nov
Bank deposits
104.3
AMC deposits
63.0
1. Balance at end November, trillion won
28
January 2011
2010
Annual
Nov
Sep
Oct
Nov
Nov1
9.4
54.8
1.5
-3.3
13.7
-2.4
1,053
2.8
-27.6
4.4
-2.0
0.1
0.0
326
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in November narrowed from the previous month to US$1.93 billion. The goods account surplus decreased to US$3.35 billion from the previous month’s US$5.39 billion driven by an increase in imports following domestic economic recovery and high commodity prices. The service account deficit contracted to post US$490 million from the previous month’s deficit of US$870 million due to improving balance of construction services. The primary income account turned to a deficit of US$690 million from the previous month’s US$660 million surplus as dividend payments increased substantially. The transfer income account deficit remained at the similar level to the previous month, slightly down from US$280 to US$240 million. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov1
Jan-Nov1
Current account
32.79
4.54
11.56
8.61
8.08
0.26
8.57
9.41
4.89
1.93
25.06
- Goods balance
37.87
2.82
13.55
10.92
10.58
4.79
12.18
12.29
5.39
3.35
37.99
- Service balance
-6.64
-0.03
-1.29
-2.66
-2.66
-4.20
-2.11
-3.22
-0.87
-0.49
-10.88
- Income balance
2.28
0.39
-0.15
0.95
1.09
0.55
-1.01
1.30
0.66
-0.69
0.80
- Current transfers
-0.71
1.36
-0.55
-0.59
-0.93
-0.87
-0.05
-0.95
-0.28
-0.24
-2.84
Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in November recorded a net outflow of US$3.31 billion, down from the previous month’s outflow of US$5.87 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -0.16 (Q1 2010)
-9.10 (Q2)
-7.68 (Q3); -5.87 (Oct)
-3.31 (Nov)
The direct investment account narrowed the net outflow to register US$1.29 billion from the previous month’s deficit of US$5.39 billion as locals’ overseas investment declined. The portfolio investment account decelerated the inflow to post US$3.49 billion from US$7.45 billion a month earlier as foreigners’ investments in the Korean stock market decreased amid worries over financial instability in the eurozone and geopolitical risk on the Korean peninsula. The financial derivatives account marked a surplus of US$110 million as gains from overseas financial derivative transactions increased. The other investment account deficit decreased to US$3.88 billion from the previous month’s US$5.22 billion due to non residents’ increasing redemption of short-term borrowings. The current account in December is expected to expand the surplus, owing to an increase in trade surplus and an improving primary income account affected by decreasing dividend payments.
30
January 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Despite stabilized public utility charges, consumer prices rose at a faster pace in December as the prices of food and industrial products, and personal services fees rose. December consumer prices rose 3.5 percent year-on-year and 0.6 percent month-on-month. Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, remained stable in December, rising 2.0 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent month-on-month. Consumer prices of basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.9 percent compared with the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2009
2010
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month-on-Month (%)
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.2
-0.6
0.6
Year-on-Year (%)
2.8
3.1
2.7
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.6
4.1
3.3
3.5
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
(m-o-m)
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
3.3
3.8
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
4.1
4.8
3.6
3.9
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products rose 1.7 percent month-on-month. Despite falling vegetable prices, fruit and fish prices rose, resulting in an overall gain. Prices of agricultural & livestock products in Dec (m-o-m, %) Potato (27.9), mackerel (16.1), persimmon (12.5), corn (11.6), pear (8.2), green onion (-13.3), lettuce (-26.9), leek (-15.5), carrot (-14.9)
Prices of industrial products extended gains month-on-month (up 1.2%), as those of durable goods and oil products surged due to rising gold and oil prices. International oil prices (Dubai crude, US$/barrel) 74.1(Jun)
72.6 (Jul)
74.2 (Aug)
75.2 (Sep)
80.3 (Oct)
83.6 (Nov)
88.9 (Dec)
Public utility charges fell 0.2 percent month-on-month due in particular to decreasing phone charges. However, personal service charges posted a slight gain month-on-month (up 0.2%) as a result of peak season surcharges imposed on international flight fares (up 5.0%).
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Month-on-Month (%)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.6
1.7
1.2
3.4
0.4
-0.2
0.2
Contribution (%p)
0.60
0.16
0.37
0.20
0.03
-0.03
0.06
Year-on-Year (%)
3.5
16.7
3.2
8.3
2.4
0.6
2.2
Contribution (%p)
3.51
1.40
1.03
0.48
0.22
0.10
0.75
Source: Statistics Korea
32
January 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices In December, international oil and domestic oil product prices rose from the previous month. International oil prices (Dubai crude) rose sharply to almost US$90 per barrel amid expectations of economic recovery, as demand for heating oil rose due to unexpected cold spells in Europe and speculative cash inflows increased. (US$/barrel, period average) 2007
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dubai crude
68.4
94.3
61.9
74.1
72.6
74.2
75.2
80.3
83.6
88.9
Brent crude
72.8
97.5
61.7
74.9
75.7
77.2
77.9
83.2
85.8
91.8
WTI crude
72.3
99.9
61.9
75.3
76.3
76.6
75.3
81.9
84.4
89.2
Source: KOREAPDS
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)
Domestic oil product prices rose due to higher exchange rates and international oil prices. Won/dollar exchange rate (average) 1,167 (Sep 2010)
1,123 (Oct)
1,126 (Nov)
1,148 (Dec) (Won/liter, period average)
2007 Annual
2008 Annual
2009 Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
2010 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Gasoline prices
1,526
1,692
1,601
1,715
1,722
1,716
1,700
1,700
1,716
1,771
Diesel prices
1,273
1,614
1,397
1,509
1,518
1,513
1,499
1,500
1,518
1,570
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
International commodity prices rose in December due to concerns about supply disruptions along with increased demand led by economic recovery. Non-ferrous metal prices surged as supply concerns were raised amid strong demand from China and other emerging markets. International grain prices rose due to concerns that supply will be disrupted as a result of bad weather in major grain-producing areas, and as China increased its grain imports. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Dec (m-o-m, %) Corn (6.9), wheat (14.3), soybean (5.0), raw sugar (7.6), copper (7.7), aluminum (0.3), nickel (5.1), zinc (-0.9), lead (0.9), tin (25)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2,400
2,536
2,079
2,285
2,477
2,687
2,765
2,824
2,952
3,119
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS
34
January 2011
2010
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In December, nationwide apartment sales prices increased 0.6 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales price increases in 2010 (y-o-y, %) Nationwide (2.5), Seoul metropolitan area (-2.9), 5 metropolitan cities (8.7), provincial cities (7.9)
Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area increased for the first time in eight months, rising 0.1 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area showed a continuing strong upward trend. In particular, the prices in South Gyeongsang Province rose 2.1 percent from the previous month and those in Busan were up 1.8 percent. Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities each advanced 1.2 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2008
Annual Annual
Annual Annual
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
Seoul
24.1
Gangnam2
27.6
Gangbuk
3
Seoul metropolitan area 5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007
2009
2010
Q4
Annual
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec 61 Dec 131 Dec 201 Dec 271
2.3
1.6
0.9
2.5
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.15
0.16
0.16 0.16
3.6
3.2
2.6
0.3
-2.2
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.02
0.04
0.05 0.02
0.5
-1.9
3.9
0.2
-1.8
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.03
0.05
0.08 0.04
19.0
8.3
9.4
0.9
0.4
-2.7
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.00
0.02
0.01 0.01
24.6
4.0
2.9
0.7
0.2
-2.9
-0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.02
0.02
0.03 0.03
2.1
-0.6
1.0
2.8
1.9
8.7
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.2
0.30
0.33
0.31 0.28
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental prices in December were up 1.0 percent from the previous month. In the Seoul metropolitan area the pace of an increase decelerated slightly, but rental prices in popular school districts in Seoul, such as Gangnam (up 1.8%) and Yangcheon (up 2.0%), showed strong growth.
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2006 2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
Annual Annual Annual
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam
2009 Annual Q4
2010 Annual Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec 61 Dec 131 Dec 201 Dec 271
7.6
1.9
0.8
4.5
2.0
8.8
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.4
1.0
0.25
0.24 0.21
0.23
11.5
2.2
-1.8
8.1
2.3
7.4
0.2
0.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.20
0.23 0.21
0.16
11.3
0.5
-3.6
10.4
2.7
8.8
0.3
0.7
1.2
1.4
1.0
0.25
0.27 0.26
0.20
Gangbuk3
11.8
4.6
0.5
5.4
1.9
5.6
0.1
0.6
1.1
0.8
0.5
0.13
0.18 0.15
0.12
Seoul metropolitan area
11.7
2.1
-0.4
5.6
1.8
7.2
0.2
0.8
1.1
1.3
0.7
0.16
0.20 0.18
0.18
3.0
1.1
1.6
3.9
2.6
12.0
0.7
0.6
0.9
1.5
1.4
0.37
0.36 0.31
0.32
2
5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in November increased 18.0 percent from the previous month’s 72,629 to post 85,704. The transactions were up 5.0 percent from a year earlier and 19.0 percent compared with the monthly average of 72,000 recorded in the same month for the past 3 years.
Apartment sales transactions 2007
(Monthly average, thousand)
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Sep Nationwide
84
74
77
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
36
January 2011
90
2010
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
87
82
82
62
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 67
80
73
62
65
62
57
57
73
86
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in November went up for the first time in three months, rising 0.03 percent month-on-month, which is 2.31 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area rose for the first time in five months, led by Seoul (up 0.02%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.04%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) -0.04 (Jul 2010)
-0.04 (Aug)
-0.09 (Sep)
-0.08 (Oct)
0.01 (Nov)
Land price increases in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area continued in November, led by Daejeon (up 0.23%), Busan (up 0.09%) and South Gyeongsang Province (up 0.08%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.06 (Jul 2010)
0.05 (Aug)
0.05 (Sep)
0.05 (Oct)
0.06 (Nov)
Land prices by region 2007 Annual Q3 Nationwide
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008 Annual
2009 Q3
3.88 0.92 -0.31 1.18
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
0.96
-1.20
0.35
0.88
0.94
0.94
0.70
0.29
1
Q3
Sep
Oct
Nov
-0.05 -0.04 -0.03
0.03
Seoul
5.88 1.39 -1.00 1.59
1.40
-1.38
0.68
1.30
0.81
0.49
0.72
0.02
-0.25 -0.13 -0.13
0.02
Gyeonggi
4.22 1.05 -0.26 1.28
1.22
-1.62
0.37
1.13
1.36
1.41
0.96
0.53
-0.08 -0.05 -0.03
0.01
Incheon
4.86 1.11
1.99
-1.39
0.53
1.16
1.70
1.41
1.08
0.43
-0.10 -0.06 -0.02 -0.03
1.37 2.01
1. Jan-Nov aggregate total Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in November recorded 208,000 land lots, increasing 14.9 percent from the previous month and 0.7 percent year-on-year. Land transactions in Ulsan (up 42.9%), Seoul (up 29.3%), and South Gyeongsang Province (up 21.3%) increased significantly.
Land sales transactions
(Land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
Nationwide
2009
2010
Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Sep Oct
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov
171
163
208
208
203
226
212
207
241
170
Seoul
33
26
22
28
25
19
21
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
56
52
48
58
Incheon
13
13
10
13
14
11
12
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
38
January 2011
168
213
203
177
183
145
181
208
16
17
20
17
14
13
10
12
11
14
18
39
34
44
42
37
42
38
36
32
40
45
6
7
9
9
10
8
8
7
7
8
9
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.7 points month-on-month to 99.2 in November. All components of the coincident composite index excluding service activity fell compared to the previous month. Components of coincident composite index in November (m-o-m) Service activity index (0.3%), value of construction completed (-3.8%), mining & manufacturing production index (-1.1%), volume of imports (-0.8%), domestic shipment index (-0.8%), wholesale & retail sales index (-0.3%), manufacturing operation ratio index (-0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (-0.1%)
The year-on-year leading composite index in November fell 0.8 percentage points from the previous month due to previous year’s high base effect and a decline in leading composite index. Among components of the leading composite index, the composite stock price index and consumer expectations index rose while the other eight indices fell. Components of the leading composite index in November (m-o-m) composite stock price index (3.9%), consumer expectations index (0.7p), value of construction orders received (-5.3%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-5.2%p), value of machinery orders received (-4.7%), Indicator of inventory cycle (-1.0%p), net terms of trade index (-0.6%), value of capital goods imports (-0.5%), liquidity in the financial institutions (-0.2%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.1%p)
2010
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
May
Jun
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
Oct1
Nov1
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.3
-0.4
-0.9
-0.2
101.4
101.7
102.2
102.1
101.2
99.9
99.2
(m-o-m, p)
0.3
0.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.9
-1.3
-0.7
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.6
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
-0.7
-0.1
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
8.0
7.1
6.8
5.9
4.9
3.4
2.6
-0.6
-0.9
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-1.5
-0.8
(m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
40
January 2011
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues Comprehensive Measures to Counter Inflation
Background The Korea government announced measures to control price-hikes amid growing inflationary expectations, as international commodities and agricultural product prices are rising and domestic demand is increasing backed by improved income and ample liquidity. The government needs to curb the inflationary expectations, which will make price-hikes hard to control. To avoid inflationary expectations the current price situation might bring, the government decided to take price-stabilizing measures, which include year-round monitoring of prices, and most of which will be adopted in the first half of 2011.
Directions of the measures The government puts its first priority of 2011’s first half on stable prices. To this end, it will take measures of both long-term as well as short-term to prevent inflationary expectations from raising prices.
42
January 2011
The major causes of the current inflationary expectations came from volatile agricultural and petroleum product prices, and public utility charges and tuition bound to increase. To prevent those causes from affecting inflation, the government will reduce customs tariffs to minimize the impact from rising international commodity prices, and offer financial and tax incentives aimed at encouraging both the private and public sectors to contribute to stabilizing prices. In addition, the government is positively considering freezing public utility charges, and will monitor the level of local prices and college tuition fees. The government will also respond to unfair and illegal price-setting practices such as price-fixing. On top of those short-term measures, the government will continue to pursue long-term measures which aim to maintain balance between supply and demand and reform distribution systems. The long-term measures will be closely monitored and their subsequent results will be reflected in the future policies. The joint ministerial system to swiftly respond to inflationary pressure will be launched, which will provide across the board price information collected by each ministry. Under the system, each ministry is responsible for monitoring the prices of the items it concerns, and is obliged to field-monitor supply-demand situations of the items. Ministries will exchange price information at the weekly joint ministerial meeting, where ways to respond to any changes in prices will be sought.
Ministerial-level measures and implementation schedule Ministry of Strategy and Finance - Reducing tariff rates for 67 items of basic necessities such as sugar and cooking oil, and for grains traded in the international market such as corn and wheat (January) - Granting local governments with fiscal incentives for their efforts to stabilize public utility charges (January) - Awarding private firms for keeping low prices (year-round) - Evaluating public firms’ productivity and cost-reduction on the basis of those of their counterparts in major economies such as US and Japan (year-round) - Watching long-term and broad measures to promote competition, stabilize supplydemand, and improve distribution systems, and modifying them if necessary (year-round) Ministry of Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries - Securing the supply of vegetables and livestock products, the former through contract farming and the latter by delaying the closing of slaughter houses to supplement the amount affected by foot-and-mouth disease (first quarter) - Adopting tariff quotas to fishery products (January) - Early importing the mandatory quota of dry milk and seeking a tariff quota for the item (first quarter) - Increasing agricultural product supply through contract farming expanded from 9 percent to 15 percent (2011)
Economic Bulletin
43
- Promoting direct sales of agricultural products (year-round) - Building a web-site to help direct sales of agricultural products (May) - Organizing a committee for international grain price analyses (January) - Establishing an overseas firm to facilitate grain supply, through which 0.1 million tons of corn and beans will be imported in 2011 (May) Ministry of Public Administration and Security - Local governments required to make available cost information when there is a public utility charge increase (first quarter) - Giving local governments financial incentives for stabilizing local public utility charges (first half and second half) - Providing local service fee information for 48 private sector services to curb the fee increases (August) - Awarding service businesses with incentives for keeping fees low (from January on) Ministry of Education & Science Technology - Freezing public universities’ tuition fees and encouraging major private universities to freeze theirs (January) - Reflecting tuition fee increases when assessing universities for government’s financial support (first quarter) - Revising laws concerning tuition level determining factors (first quarter) - Revising laws regulating private educational institutions and obliging them to make available fee information (first half) - Monitoring private kindergarten tuition (from January on) - Revising laws so that private daycare centers can be required to put up fee information (first half) Ministry of Knowledge Economy - Increasing the number of petroleum products subject to putting up price information (from January on) - Increasing petroleum imports (first half) - Improving the LPG distribution system (first half) - Freezing charges for electricity, gas, and postal services (2011) - Reducing quota tariff rates for major raw material imports (January) - Seeking to improve distribution systems of manufactured goods (first half) Fair Trade Commission - Organizing a task force team to monitor prices (January) - Weekly monitoring of major item prices (January) - Immediately monitoring basic necessity prices when any inflationary pressure detected (January) - Unfair practices which cause price increases such as price fixing to be under close watch (year-round) - Encouraging direct sales (year-round) - Inspecting unfair practices between oil refining companies and gas station businesses (from January on) - Comparing domestic and overseas prices for the same items (every quarter)
44
January 2011
Ministry of Land, Transportation, and Maritime Affairs - Increasing the supply of rental houses, early providing the publicly planned affordable houses, Bogumjari houses, and encouraging private builders to construct small-sized houses in cities (January and February) - Increasing loan support for those who want to rent houses (from January on) - Providing real-time price information on rental houses (February) - Easing regulations on housing construction, which includes the abolition of the price ceiling for new apartments and less time taken for housing construction permits (February) Korea Communications Commission - Introducing cheaper communications fees for smart phone use (first quarter) - Mobile virtual network operators allowed to use the existing mobile telephone network at 31 percent to 44 percent discounted rates so that they can enter the market with cheaper services (first half) Ministry of Health and Welfare - Stabilizing daycare center fees below the average price increase (February) - Controlling fees for after-school activities (February) - Seeking to strictly regulate special medical services so that patients who do not want the medical service are not required to have the service on their expense (first half)
Economic Bulletin
45
Economic News Briefing
The Bank of Korea focuses on price stabilization in 2011 The Bank of Korea set the inflation target for the 2010-2012 period at the level of 3.0 Âą1 percent at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on January 6, 2011. The bank projected that the domestic economy will maintain its growth trend, with local consumer prices rising above the inflation target. This is attributable to the continuing upturn in economic activities along with rising international commodity prices, wages and rents.
<Economic Outlook>
(Year-on-year, %) 2011
1
2009
20101 1st half
2nd half
Annual
GDP growth
0.2
6.1
3.8
5.0
4.5
CPI inflation
2.8
2.9
3.7
3.3
3.5
1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea Economic Outlook for 2011 (released on December 10, 2010)
In implementing monetary policy for 2011, the Bank of Korea will put priorities on both economic growth and price stabilization. In addition, the central bank will enhance its capacity to adjust liquidity, improve the predictability and transparency of monetary policy, and strengthen efforts for financial stability. In particular, the Bank of Korea will ensure that Macro-prudential Stability Levy takes effect from the second half of this year. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Korea decided on January 13, 2011 to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent in an effort to curb inflation.
46
January 2011
Korea introduces Macro-prudential Stability Law to reduce volatility On December 19, 2010, the Korean government announced plans to impose Macro-prudential Stability Levy on non-deposit foreign currency liabilities held by domestic and foreign banks. Currently, Korea is faced with massive capital inflows caused by the exceptionally low interest rates and quantitative easing measures in advanced countries. A surge of capital inflows could lead to inflation and asset price bubbles, and a sudden reversal of such inflows could possibly result in a systemic risk. Against these backdrops, the Korean government plans to adopt the Levy as a pre-emptive and precautionary measure. The Levy will be charged on non-deposit foreign currency liabilities appeared in bank balance sheets. The Levy will first apply to banks including domestic banks and foreign bank branches given that they represent a large portion of the financial sector, with high possibility of posing systemic risks. However, the Levy will gradually apply to all financial institutions including domestic financial institutions. In addition, the Levy will vary according to debt maturity. Short-term debt will be subject to higher Levy rate compared with longterm debt as the former poses higher risk than the latter. The related legislation will be submitted to the National Assembly in February and is expected to take effect from the second half of this year.
Government plans to issue 82.4 trillion won worth of government bonds The Korean government plans to issue 82.4 trillion won worth of government bonds in 2011, up 4.7 trillion won from the previous yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 77.7 trillion won. The Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced on December 30, 2010 that the government bonds will be issued evenly every month in order to ensure the stability of the bond trading market. Among the 82.4 trillion won of government bonds to be issued this year, 21 trillion won will be deficitcovering bonds and 34.3 trillion won will be used to repay previous debts. The issue ratio by maturity will be similar to 2010 levels in general, but may be adjusted depending on the changes in market demand. The target ratio is 20 to 30 percent for 3-year bonds, 30 to 40 percent for 5-year bonds, 25 to 35 percent for 10-year bonds, and 5 to 15 percent for 20-year bonds. The government is also planning to increase issuance of inflationindexed government bonds, as growing demand for those bonds is expected amid rising inflationary pressures.
Economic Bulletin
47
Korea unveils the five-year plan for improving ODA programs The Korean government announced the “2011-2015 International Development Cooperation Plan”, which consists of plans to improve official development assistance (ODA) programs over the next five years. The plan was confirmed on December 21, 2010 at the 8th International Development Cooperation Committee presided by Prime Minister Kim Hwangsik. The concessional loan plan focuses on green growth sectors to help developing nations respond to the climate change and achieve sustainable growth, while the grant plan focuses on contributing to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by increasing aid to the least developed countries. By 2015, the ratio of untied assistance will be raised to 50 percent for concessional loans, and 100 percent for grants. Also, the amount of aid for overseas emergency relief, which is currently less than 1 percent of the total ODA, will be expanded to 6 percent by 2015. The government will create a joint task force team in the Prime Minister’s Office to draw effective ODA programs based on the Saemaul Movement, Korea’s rural development scheme from the 1970s that is regarded as a successful development model for developing countries. Meanwhile, during the committee session, participants discussed measures for successful hosting of the Fourth High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness (HLF-4), which will take place in Busan from November 29 to December 1, 2011.
Korea’s trade surplus hits record high in 2010 Korea posted a record high trade surplus of US$41.7 billion in 2010, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said on January 1, 2011. Exports increased 28.6 percent year-on-year to record US$467.4 billion while imports gained 31.8 percent to post US$425.7 billion. For December, exports jumped 23.1 percent year-on-year to US$44.3 billion, while imports rose 23.3 percent to US$ 40.6 billion. Among 70 major exporters in the World Trade Organization (WTO), Korea ranked 7th for the first 10 months in 2010.
<2010 Export-Import>
(preliminary, customs cleared, US$ billion, %) 2009 1 Half st
Exports Year-on-year growth rate Imports Year-on-year growth rate Trade balance
48
January 2011
2 Half nd
164.8
198.8
145.4
177.7
19.4
21.1
2010 Annual
1 Half
2 Half
Annual
363.5
221.4
246.0
467.4
-13.9
34.3
23.7
28.6
323.1
203.9
221.8
425.7
-25.8
40.2
24.8
31.8
40.4
17.5
24.2
41.7
st
nd
Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2010 rose 13.8 percent year-on-year to post US$13.07 billion, the highest level in a decade, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy announced on December 30, 2010. Although global FDI remained sluggish in 2010, the inflow of foreign capital into Korea increased due to Korea’s sound economic fundamentals. FDI in the manufacturing sector rose 75.6 percent year-on-year to post US$6.54 billion, while service-related investments fell 18 percent to US$6.23 billion. New growth engine sectors accounted for 23.6 percent of all investments.
Microcredit program marks first anniversary The “Miso Credit Foundation”, a microcredit lending program in Korea to support lowincome households, marked its first anniversary with the 100th branch opening on December 16, 2010 in Seoul. Starting with the Samsung Miso Credit Foundation office in Suwon, which opened on December 15, 2009, 45 branches have been established in the Seoul metropolitan area and 55 branches in various provincial cities. The credit program is operated by 31 banks including Kookmin, Woori, Shinhan, Hana, and Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK), and 49 companies in non-financial sectors, such as Hyundai-Kia, LG, SK, POSCO and Lotte. According to the Financial Services Commission, the Miso Credit Foundation has provided a total of 101.9 billion won to 21,223 people through microcredit loans and micro insurance from January to December 15, 2010. 12,865 people have borrowed loans worth 99.7 billion won from the foundation, and 8,358 people have received micro insurance worth 4.1 billion won.
Economic Bulletin
49
50
January 2011
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 1.6
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.9 -1.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.3
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -0.2
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 4.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.1
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009P
I II III IV
-4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0
1.5 -1.3 3.3 2.8
-13.6 -7.2 1.7 13.0
-2.0 0.7 1.7 4.7
-7.4 -2.3 0.4 7.1
2.8 5.1 4.4 5.0
-23.1 -17.3 -7.0 13.3
2010P
I II III
8.1 7.2 4.4
-1.9 -2.2 -7.5
20.7 18.0 10.1
5.7 3.6 3.2
11.4 6.4 6.6
2.3 -2.9 -2.3
29.9 30.2 24.3
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
January 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2008 2009
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.8 118.9
3.4 -0.8
118.3 116.3
2.6 -1.7
125.5 115.5
7.1 -8.0
116.1 118.4
3.6 2.0
2008
I II III IV
121.9 125.5 119.6 112.4
11.2 9.2 5.9 -11.0
119.8 123.0 118.0 112.4
9.3 6.8 5.5 -9.9
123.6 133.2 132.0 125.5
8.4 16.3 17.1 7.1
114.0 116.0 116.4 118.1
6.8 4.3 3.4 0.0
2009
I II III IV
102.8 117.8 124.7 130.5
-15.7 -6.1 4.3 16.2
101.9 115.9 120.5 126.8
-14.9 -5.8 2.1 12.8
115.9 110.6 113.3 115.5
-6.2 -16.9 -14.2 -8.0
113.7 118.8 118.6 122.5
-0.3 2.4 1.9 3.7
2010
I II III
129.3 140.8 139.5
25.8 19.5 11.9
124.1 135.8 134.1
21.8 17.2 11.3
123.6 127.9 134.2
6.6 15.6 18.4
120.2 123.6 121.3
5.7 4.0 2.3
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.3 111.1 128.3 126.5 126.5 123.5 123.4 116.2 119.1 126.7 110.3 100.0
12.0 10.9 10.9 11.2 9.2 7.3 8.9 2.2 6.7 -1.5 -13.6 -18.4
121.9 109.9 127.6 124.8 123.7 120.5 121.6 114.7 117.6 124.2 109.8 103.2
10.5 8.1 9.2 8.9 6.6 4.9 8.0 2.0 6.3 -1.7 -12.9 -15.1
123.9 124.3 123.6 124.6 128.7 133.1 132.4 132.1 132.0 134.7 133.2 125.5
4.5 7.5 8.4 11.4 12.7 16.2 14.5 14.3 17.1 17.1 15.9 7.1
114.3 109.6 118.1 116.1 116.7 115.1 117.4 114.2 117.5 118.9 113.3 122.2
8.0 6.6 6.0 6.1 4.1 2.7 4.7 1.2 4.2 3.1 -2.0 -1.0
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
93.8 99.8 114.7 116.1 115.0 122.2 124.3 117.4 132.3 127.0 130.3 134.2
-25.7 -10.2 -10.6 -8.2 -9.1 -1.1 0.7 1.0 11.1 0.2 18.1 34.2
93.1 99.4 113.3 114.7 112.8 120.1 120.0 113.5 127.9 123.4 126.8 130.2
-23.6 -9.6 -11.2 -8.1 -8.8 -0.3 -1.3 -1.0 8.8 -0.6 15.5 26.2
123.7 117.6 115.9 112.4 111.4 110.6 112.3 112.8 113.3 112.6 113.7 115.5
-0.2 -5.4 -6.2 -9.8 -13.4 -16.9 -15.2 -14.6 -14.2 -16.4 -14.6 -8.0
112.4 109.5 119.2 119.9 118.5 118.0 118.1 115.5 122.3 118.3 118.1 131.0
-1.7 -0.1 0.9 3.3 1.5 2.5 0.6 1.1 4.1 -0.5 4.2 7.2
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
128.5 118.7 140.7 139.4 139.9 143.2 143.7 137.3 137.6 144.2 143.9
37.0 18.9 22.7 20.1 21.7 17.2 15.6 17.0 4.0 13.5 10.7
123.0 113.7 135.6 134.9 134.2 138.2 137.1 132.4 132.8 140.3 140.7
32.1 14.4 19.7 17.6 19.0 15.1 14.3 16.7 3.8 13.7 11.0
119.2 122.5 123.6 124.6 127.9 127.9 132.8 134.1 134.2 133.2 132.1
-3.6 4.2 6.6 10.9 14.8 15.6 18.3 18.9 18.4 18.3 16.2
117.3 117.5 125.8 124.4 122.9 123.5 121.9 120.3 121.2 121.8 122.3
4.4 7.3 5.5 3.8 3.7 4.7 3.2 4.2 -0.9 3.0 3.6
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
January 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
115.3 118.9
5.1 3.1
97.2 93.5
-3.2 -3.8
77.5 74.6
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2008 2009 2008
I II III IV
113.8 115.1 116.0 116.4
5.9 6.3 5.3 3.4
99.3 103.1 95.5 91.1
2.2 0.5 -0.7 -13.6
81.5 80.8 78.3 69.6
2009
I II III IV
116.8 117.8 119.7 121.1
2.6 2.3 3.2 4.0
81.4 94.6 97.8 100.3
-18.0 -8.2 2.4 10.1
66.9 74.2 78.8 78.4
2010
I II III
122.7 124.6 127.5
5.1 5.8 6.5
97.7 106.5 100.8
20.0 12.6 3.1
80.5 83.0 82.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 113.9 114.3 115.4 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.7
6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.3
103.2 89.5 105.1 104.7 103.3 101.2 99.8 92.2 94.5 104.1 89.4 79.7
3.4 1.5 1.4 3.2 -0.6 -1.3 1.5 -4.6 0.7 -4.8 -16.8 -20.1
82.1 80.6 81.7 82.1 80.1 80.1 79.3 78.3 77.3 76.9 69.1 62.8
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.8 116.7 117.0 117.6 117.6 118.3 119.1 119.5 120.4 120.6 120.8 121.9
2.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.5
73.5 79.5 91.1 93.4 92.6 97.9 98.6 91.1 103.6 99.1 100.6 101.1
-28.8 -11.2 -13.3 -10.8 -10.4 -3.3 -1.2 -1.2 9.6 -4.8 12.5 26.9
62.8 67.7 70.3 72.4 73.6 76.6 78.7 77.7 79.9 77.3 78.2 79.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
122.1 122.4 123.6 123.8 124.8 125.1 126.7 127.7 128.2 128.2 128.4
4.5 4.9 5.6 5.3 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.3
97.4 88.4 107.2 106.6 104.8 108.2 106.8 97.8 97.9 107.5 106.1
32.5 11.2 17.7 14.1 13.2 10.5 8.3 7.4 -5.5 8.5 5.5
78.9 80.3 82.4 82.2 82.8 84.0 84.8 81.5 81.5 79.7 80.9
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Consumer goods sales index
2008 2009
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
110.6 113.5
1.1 2.6
126.4 136.7
1.6 8.1
104.9 105.2
-3.0 0.3
110.0 111.3
1.4 1.2
2008
I Il III IV
111.5 111.7 108.8 110.4
4.5 2.9 1.4 -4.2
129.9 134.1 125.8 115.7
8.7 8.0 -0.1 -9.6
103.6 107.2 94.0 115.0
4.0 -2.7 0.3 -10.7
109.2 108.8 112.3 109.5
2.3 1.3 1.5 0.2
2009
I II III IV
106.3 113.4 111.9 122.3
-4.7 1.5 2.8 10.8
114.4 141.8 135.7 154.9
-11.9 5.7 7.9 33.9
102.0 106.6 93.3 118.9
-1.5 -0.6 -0.7 3.4
107.7 109.3 114.4 114.0
-1.4 0.5 1.9 4.1
2010
I II IIIP
116.8 118.9 120.1
9.9 4.9 7.3
148.1 149.4 158.3
29.5 5.4 16.7
104.8 114.0 100.0
2.7 6.9 7.2
111.3 113.1 117.7
3.3 3.5 2.9
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.3 115.4 113.4 115.1 106.5 109.6 106.2 110.7 109.7 108.9 112.7
5.4 3.5 4.6 6.3 3.3 -0.7 4.2 2.2 -1.8 -3.3 -4.6 -4.8
128.3 117.8 143.6 139.1 136.0 127.1 140.7 121.5 115.2 123.9 108.9 114.4
8.1 6.1 11.4 15.6 7.9 0.6 7.9 -4.7 -3.8 -0.5 -15.3 -12.5
104.4 97.8 108.5 108.5 112.1 100.9 97.6 86.2 98.1 111.6 120.3 113.1
6.7 7.2 -1.3 -2.8 -3.7 -1.8 3.5 8.8 -8.9 -10.1 -7.7 -14.3
108.8 108.4 110.5 109.5 112.3 104.5 106.1 112.0 118.8 106.6 107.7 114.3
4.3 0.6 2.2 4.5 2.0 -2.7 1.0 2.0 1.6 -2.2 1.2 1.5
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 100.9 109.4 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.9 106.7 118.1 120.4 119.5 127.0
-2.9 -6.0 -5.2 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.2 0.5 6.7 9.8 9.7 12.7
103.9 115.8 123.6 123.7 144.0 157.8 138.3 122.7 146.0 144.7 153.2 166.8
-19.0 -1.7 -13.9 -11.1 5.9 24.2 -1.7 1.0 26.7 16.8 40.7 45.8
102.6 96.1 107.4 108.3 112.1 99.4 94.3 85.6 100.1 114.9 120.7 121.2
-1.7 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -1.5 -3.4 -0.7 2.0 3.0 0.3 7.2
114.8 99.0 109.2 107.1 113.0 107.8 111.1 112.9 119.1 116.8 109.3 116.0
5.5 -8.7 -1.2 -2.2 0.6 3.2 4.7 0.8 0.3 9.6 1.5 1.5
2010
116.0 114.1 120.2 116.5 121.3 118.9 120.5 116.6 123.3 125.4 127.8
6.9 13.1 9.9 7.3 3.7 3.8 8.7 9.3 4.4 4.2 6.9
145.6 140.1 158.6 144.1 146.7 157.5 163.8 154.3 156.9 165.1 172.1
40.1 21.0 28.3 16.5 1.9 -0.2 18.4 25.8 7.5 14.1 12.3
107.3 98.6 108.5 112.7 120.5 108.9 103.1 89.6 107.3 129.4 133.0
4.6 2.6 1.0 4.1 7.5 9.6 9.3 4.7 7.2 12.6 10.2
108.8 112.2 112.8 110.6 116.2 112.4 114.9 116.5 121.6 111.3 112.2
-5.2 13.3 3.3 3.3 2.8 4.3 3.4 3.1 2.1 -4.7 2.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
January 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2008 2009
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
114.8 115.5
1.6 0.6
126.8 133.9
1.8 5.6
109.9 108.1
1.4 -1.6
-
2008
I II III IV
117.5 115.7 113.8 111.9
5.8 4.2 2.2 -5.7
133.3 136.5 123.0 114.4
11.3 11.4 0.1 -13.9
111.1 107.4 110.1 111.0
3.3 0.9 3.2 -1.8
-
2009
I II III IV
106.7 114.1 118.8 122.5
-9.2 -1.4 4.4 9.5
112.7 138.0 138.0 147.0
-15.5 1.1 12.2 28.5
104.3 104.5 111.1 112.6
-6.1 -2.7 0.9 1.4
-
2010
I II III
117.6 119.2 120.8
10.2 4.5 1.7
136.1 139.7 139.1
20.8 1.2 0.8
110.2 111.0 113.5
5.7 6.2 2.2
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.4 106.5 120.6 119.8 115.7 111.7 117.8 111.7 112.0 119.7 107.0 109.1
9.1 2.1 5.7 7.3 2.4 2.9 7.4 -1.1 0.6 -1.6 -9.3 -6.3
132.6 123.1 144.2 144.2 136.9 128.5 134.3 118.6 116.1 127.7 111.0 104.4
12.4 8.3 12.8 20.3 9.3 5.0 8.0 -5.1 -2.8 -6.4 -15.8 -19.8
122.5 99.8 111.1 110.1 107.2 105.0 111.1 108.9 110.3 116.6 105.4 111.0
7.8 -0.7 2.3 1.7 -0.7 2.0 6.9 0.7 2.1 0.8 -6.2 0.1
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.4 102.7 110.9 111.3 112.7 118.2 118.1 110.0 128.2 120.2 118.8 128.4
-15.2 -3.6 -8.0 -7.1 -2.6 5.8 0.3 -1.5 14.5 0.4 11.0 17.7
98.6 115.1 124.4 119.1 138.9 156.1 144.3 124.6 145.0 138.8 146.0 156.1
-25.6 -6.5 -13.7 -17.4 1.5 21.5 7.4 5.1 24.9 8.7 31.5 49.5
109.5 97.7 105.6 108.2 102.2 103.0 107.7 104.2 121.5 112.7 107.9 117.3
-10.6 -2.1 -5.0 -1.7 -4.7 -1.9 -3.1 -4.3 10.2 -3.3 2.4 5.7
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
122.3 109.5 121.0 119.5 116.3 121.9 121.3 119.1 122.0 126.8 125.4 -
14.9 6.6 9.1 7.4 3.2 3.1 2.7 8.3 -4.8 5.5 5.6 -
135.5 129.1 143.8 135.2 135.5 148.5 146.1 134.0 137.2 145.1 143.2 -
37.4 12.2 15.6 13.5 -2.4 -4.9 1.2 7.5 -5.4 4.5 -1.9 -
117.0 101.7 111.9 113.2 108.7 111.2 111.3 113.2 115.9 119.5 118.2 -
6.8 4.1 6.0 4.6 6.4 8.0 3.3 8.6 -4.6 6.0 9.5 -
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 108 109
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2009
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
20,718
3,735
16,983
9,111
109.3
110.4
Manufacturing
2009
I ll III IV
5,033 4,942 5,591 5,152
932 696 1,345 763
4,101 4,246 4,246 4,389
1,992 2,212 2,321 2,586
97.0 110.4 107.7 122.2
98.7 112.7 107.5 122.6
2010
I ll III
5,563 6,136 5,549
525 409 374
5,038 5,727 5,175
2,956 3,509 3,012
121.7 137.5 137.4
119.6 148.1 140.0
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,494 1,340 1,757 1,541 1,942 1,669
1,073 71 200 84 433 246
1,421 1,268 1,557 1,458 1,509 1,422
754 653 914 836 941 810
101.9 100.7 120.4 112.4 121.4 132.9
107.5 98.2 116.8 109.1 116.3 142.3
2010
1,752 1,630 2,181 1,823 2,168 2,145 2,017 1,697 1,835 1,717 1,666
169 107 249 127 122 160 105 102 167 101 102
1,583 1,523 1,932 1,696 2,046 1,986 1,912 1,595 1,668 1,616 1,565
1,010 880 1,065 1,053 1,331 1,125 1,070 911 1,031 970 887
107.6 114.5 142.9 131.9 133.0 147.6 136.4 141.4 134.4 123.3 126.9
111.6 105.7 141.5 143.1 145.7 155.4 144.0 137.2 138.8 134.5 136.1
-11.8
61.7
-19.9
-27.2
-8.2
-5.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009 2009
I ll III IV
-35.5 -17.7 3.4 20.0
150.8 29.9 280.2 -27.2
-44.8 -22.3 -16.0 35.2
-59.1 -27.6 -19.4 51.5
-18.3 -12.9 -9.9 10.0
-12.7 -8.0 -6.4 6.4
2010
I ll III
10.5 24.2 -0.7
-43.7 -41.2 -72.2
22.9 34.9 21.9
48.4 58.6 29.8
25.5 24.5 27.6
21.2 31.4 30.2
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
6.1 -19.6 26.5 -7.9 56.2 21.2
498.5 -17.4 127.5 -79.0 110.1 -44.5
-34.6 -19.7 19.7 14.3 45.5 52.4
-38.1 -30.7 27.3 16.5 74.6 79.5
-18.3 -15.6 5.3 -0.5 10.1 20.8
-10.9 -9.9 1.6 -5.3 4.0 20.1
2010
11.2 -3.1 22.9 25.1 57.5 1.8 -19.1 26.6 4.5 11.4 -14.2
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 26.8 -68.6 -90.2 42.5 -16.2 20.8 -76.5
17.8 30.9 21.3 24.2 59.8 24.1 34.6 25.8 7.1 10.8 3.7
41.4 65.7 42.7 57.0 102.3 27.3 42.0 39.6 12.7 16.1 -5.7
20.9 19.5 34.7 25.6 24.3 23.9 33.9 40.4 11.6 9.7 4.5
31.0 8.1 25.1 29.0 39.8 26.3 34.0 39.6 18.8 23.3 17.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
January 2011
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
32,393
52,562
107,011
50,771
51,914
Public
89,863
2009
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completed (total)
2009
I ll llI lV
19,130 23,628 22,106 25,000
6,570 8,665 7,875 9,284
11,544 13,577 13,029 14,412
18,104 26,392 19,719 42,795
9,219 17,747 8,826 14,980
8,263 7,760 9,971 25,920
2010
I ll llI
20,066 24,196 22,737
7,317 9,171 8,181
11,870 14,011 13,497
16,848 24,649 18,737
7,646 6,746 6,648
8,335 16,453 11,249
2009
7 8 9 10 11 12
6,988 6,719 8,398 7,301 8,060 9,639
2,362 2,427 3,085 2,585 2,780 3,919
4,252 3,929 4,848 4,354 4,854 5,204
6,009 4,660 9,050 10,570 14,538 17,688
3,314 1,756 3,756 4,700 5,101 5,179
2,398 2,807 4,766 5,616 8,853 11,451
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
6,414 6,051 7,602 7,355 7,784 9,057 7,635 7,420 7,682 7,168 7,817
2,222 2,236 2,859 2,623 2,858 3,690 2,798 2,610 2,774 2,794 3,193
3,924 3,589 4,357 4,473 4,564 4,973 4,495 4,488 4,514 4,024 4,282
6,643 4,615 5,590 6,418 8,354 9,877 7,346 4,010 7,381 4,274 7,459
2,286 2,109 3,252 1,735 1,613 3,398 3,830 1,251 1,567 1,173 1,957
4,074 2,163 2,099 4,356 6,521 5,576 3,315 2,640 5,293 2,989 5,191
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009
3.3
21.2
-5.7
3.0
60.9
-21.9
2009
I ll llI lV
4.3 6.4 -1.2 3.7
24.5 31.9 21.3 10.7
-5.3 -5.9 -11.8 0.4
-12.0 -1.1 7.6 11.6
33.1 182.9 78.9 11.6
-37.3 -60.2 -14.3 17.3
2010
I ll llI
4.9 2.4 2.9
11.4 5.8 3.9
2.8 3.2 3.6
-6.9 -6.6 -5.0
-17.1 -62.0 -24.7
0.9 112.0 12.8
2009
7 8 9 10 11 12
-2.8 -8.2 6.8 -5.9 3.2 12.9
16.6 14.1 31.9 3.5 8.1 18.3
-11.6 -18.9 -5.4 -10.1 1.7 9.8
-1.8 -27.0 55.3 28.8 78.8 -19.6
135.8 6.7 99.6 90.8 63.3 -33.9
-42.7 -36.6 57.4 16.2 92.5 -9.6
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10P 11P
5.8 -0.8 9.2 -1.1 7.8 1.0 9.3 10.4 -8.5 -1.8 -3.0
3.4 9.6 20.1 -0.5 10.0 7.5 18.4 7.5 -10.1 8.1 14.9
8.3 -4.3 4.5 1.3 8.5 0.4 5.7 14.2 -6.9 -7.6 -11.8
17.1 -6.7 -25.3 -14.6 16.8 -15.8 22.2 -13.9 -18.4 -59.6 -48.7
-14.7 -23.5 -14.0 -69.8 -63.6 -55.1 15.6 -28.8 -58.3 -75.1 -61.6
49.4 4.7 -39.5 192.8 151.2 51.7 38.2 -5.9 11.1 -46.8 -41.4
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.1 111.4 112.3 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.4 116.2 116.6
5.3 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.2
110.7 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.5 115.7 116.2 116.9 118.0
101.3 101.3 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.4 102.6 102.3 102.4 102.6 103.1
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.2 115.1 115.1 114.6 114.0 113.8 113.6 112.7 111.1 110.4
6.3 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -1.8 -3.4 -4.2
119.1 119.3 119.7 119.7 119.9 119.7 119.9 120.2 120.5 120.3 118.7 116.0
103.6 103.4 103.3 102.8 102.6 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.4 100.8 99.1 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.5 115.4 117.6 120.3 122.1 123.2 123.9 124.7 126.1 127.0
-3.9 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 2.7 5.5 7.6 8.8 9.6 10.3 11.3 11.6
113.7 113.9 115.3 117.3 118.4 120.5 121.8 122.8 123.6 124.1 124.7 125.2
94.1 93.9 94.6 95.9 96.3 97.7 98.3 98.7 98.9 98.9 99.0 98.9
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.4 127.1 127.3 127.1 127.7 128.2 129.3 129.6 129.6 128.7 128.6 -
11.3 10.3 9.7 8.6 7.9 7.1 6.8 5.9 4.9 3.4 2.6 -
126.2 127.7 128.9 130.1 131.0 132.0 133.2 133.6 133.0 131.8 131.5 -
99.3 100.0 100.6 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 101.2 99.9 99.2 -
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1
-
-
-
-
-
101.8
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
January 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2008 2009
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
3,197.5 32,790.5
5,170.1 37,866.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
434,651.5 358,189.7
429,481.4 320,323.7
-5,734.1 -6,640.5
4,435.4 2,276.7
-673.9 -711.7
2008
I II III IV
86.3 595.6 -3,981.0 6,496.6
1,365.8 4,095.7 -1,208.3 916.9
106,227.0 117,184.4 119,540.5 91,699.6
104,861.2 113,088.7 120,748.8 90,782.7
-2,358.8 -1,656.7 -3,145.3 1,426.7
1,613.1 -887.1 1,137.3 2,572.1
-533.8 -956.3 -764.7 1,580.9
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III
263.3 8,568.0 9,411.2
4,785.4 12,183.3 12,287.5
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,067.3
96,569.1 105,401.7 105,779.7
-4,201.1 -2,106.0 -3,219.8
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.2
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
19.2 -1,230.5 1,297.6 -1,205.1 1,002.8 797.9 -192.6 -3,587.6 -200.8 4,984.2 1,453.1 59.3
588.5 30.8 746.5 1,018.4 1,234.9 1,842.4 1,900.0 -2,467.7 -640.6 1,327.3 -388.9 -21.5
36,167.2 32,263.4 37,796.4 38,594.7 39,428.7 39,161.0 43,842.5 37,121.5 38,576.5 37,504.4 28,046.2 26,149.0
35,578.7 32,232.6 37,049.9 37,576.3 38,193.8 37,318.6 41,942.5 39,589.2 39,217.1 36,177.1 28,435.1 26,170.5
-996.1 -1,497.2 134.5 137.5 -391.7 -1,402.5 -1,769.1 -1,211.4 -164.8 1,416.8 716.2 -706.3
718.3 670.3 224.5 -2,036.2 441.5 707.6 228.0 305.4 603.9 1,468.6 635.4 468.1
-291.5 -434.4 192.1 -324.8 -281.9 -349.6 -551.5 -213.9 0.7 771.5 490.4 319.0
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,859.0 4,180.0 4,457.9 1,725.6 3,227.7 4,892.5 1,929.8
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,630.9 4,812.3 5,268.9 2,704.6 4,314.1 5,385.4 3,348.7
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,813.4 39,123.8 41,942.2 42,099.7
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,619.2 35,335.8 35,861.3 35,108.8 34,809.7 36,556.8 38,751.0
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 35.0 -872.1 -859.3 -1,031.1 -1,329.3 -870.4 -487.0
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2008 2009
-1,154.0 -34,651.2
-16,940.6 -14,948.0
-2,405.6 49,727.7
-14,769.9 -3,093.0
-23,593.2 2,038.9
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
109.3 289.6
56,446.0 -68,666.4
-2,043.5 1,860.7
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
2008
I ll III IV
1,193.5 1,939.6 2,595.0 -6,882.1
-6,108.5 -4,467.0 -3,988.1 -2,377.0
-4,401.5 8,356.7 -9,421.3 3,060.5
-1,249.5 -1,240.7 -3,550.4 -8,729.3
9,213.4 -6,200.3 6,889.4 -33,495.7
-110.4 -226.8 -217.7 664.2
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
-1,279.8 -2,535.2 1,386.0 385.5
2009
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
2010P I II III
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1
746.6 -983.9 -388.6
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3
-175.6 27.1 31.1
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5
-108.0 531.0 -1,731.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
386.7 808.3 -1.5 1,442.8 670.4 -173.6 1,052.9 2,866.3 -1,324.2 -3,562.9 -1,557.3 -1,761.9
-3,111.7 -199.9 -2,796.9 -2,670.0 -792.4 -1,004.6 -1,574.4 -1,537.7 -876.0 -1,087.9 -724.2 -564.9
-949.8 -3,144.5 -307.2 4,093.1 9,168.1 -4,904.5 -7,025.3 -343.4 -2,052.6 5,004.0 -2,524.0 580.5
-130.4 -298.1 -821.0 -560.3 -627.6 -52.8 -551.2 -69.3 -2,929.9 -3,888.3 -1,347.1 -3,493.9
3,201.2 2,762.6 3,249.6 -1,744.6 -9,293.2 4,837.5 1,209.3 6,139.7 -459.6 -23,932.3 -8,079.7 -1,483.7
-58.7 -14.9 -36.8 -86.7 -49.1 -91.0 -176.9 -107.8 67.0 353.5 213.5 97.2
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
-405.9 422.2 -1,296.1 -237.7 -1,673.2 -624.3 -860.3 721.3 1,525.0 -1,421.3 104.2 1,702.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -3,309.4
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 3,492.0
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -3,876.9
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.00 -2,879.60 -2,658.60 -1,719.30
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,752.5 -50.7 -929.5 -303.9 -498.2 977.2 1,379.6
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
January 2011
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2009 2010
112.8 116.1
113.6 118.8
112.2 114.3
112.5 114.5
110.9 115.1
111.9 117.0
109.2 -
137.7 -
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6 117.8 117.1 117.8
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8 122.1 120.4 121.9
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.0 114.9 115.0
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.6
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 -
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 -
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009 2010
2.8 2.9
3.4 4.6
2.4 4.2
3.6 1.8
-0.2 3.8
-0.5 4.6
-0.2 -
-4.1 -
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3 7.2 5.4 6.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 -
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 -
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2009
24,394
23,506
3,836
17,998
3.6
16,454
9,390
5,101
1,963
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009
0.2
-0.3
-3.2
0.5
-
1.5
4.3
0.4
-7.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7
Source: Statistics Korea
64
January 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2006 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8
5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.2
5.0 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8
5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9
1,399.80 1,371.60 1,359.60 1,419.70 1,371.70 1,295.70 1,297.80 1,352.70 1,371.40 1,364.60 1,432.20 1,434.50
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2008 2009
52,272.8 61,739.6
307,273.6 357,344.1
1,367,713.4 1,508,550.4
1,794,841.2 1,937,336.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,071.5 1,897,923.7 1,913,084.5 1,925,418.1 1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5
Y-o-Y change (%) 2008 2009
7.7 18.1
-1.8 16.3
14.3 10.3
11.9 7.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3
Source: The Bank of Korea
66
January 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2008 2009
1,257.5 1,167.6
1,102.6 1,276.4
1,393.9 1,262.8
1,076.6 1,363.1
1,776.2 1,674.3
1,606.8 1,774.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
Y-o-Y change (%) 2008 2009
34.0 -7.1
18.7 15.8
67.3 -9.4
36.3 26.6
28.6 -5.7
26.2 10.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Bang, Moon-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho, Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Lee, Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr