Vol. 33 | No. 2
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Economic News Briefing
42
Statistical Appendices
47
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview Korea’s real economy continued to improve backed by exports and domestic demand, although rising oil prices and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease affected supply and led to inflation. Mining and manufacturing production in December accelerated a month-on-month rise in line with brisk semiconductors and automobiles, while service output improved amid recovering domestic demand even though an unusual cold spell and foot-and-mouth disease negatively affected wholsale and retail sales. Consumer goods sales posted a month-on-month decrease in December, as the sales of durable and non-durable goods declined due to rising prices. Facilities investment slightly climbed for the second consecutive month in December, thanks to machinery investment recovering from a recent slump. Construction completed rose at a faster pace, as SOC budget spending increased at the end of the year. Although imports soared due to rising oil prices and increasing seasonal energy demand, the trade balance stayed in the black in January helped by growing vessel exports. Employment continued to improve in December, led by the private sector, with the total number of workers hired gaining more than 400,000 and the employment rate rising from a month earlier. The consumer price in January 2011 posted a 4.1 percent increase, as the prices of agricultural, livestock and fishery products jumped along with those of oil and processed food products. Core consumer prices, although remaining stable at the 2.0 percent-range, rose at a faster rate compared with the previous month due to increasing service fees. In January stock prices rose and foreign exchange rates fell, amid expectations of both global and domestic economic recovery, but the upward trend slowed down affected by the unrest in Egypt. Housing prices continued moderate recovery in the Seoul metropolitan area in January, while rent soared due to seasonal demand, particularly in areas with prestigious schools. To sum up, although the global economy has recovered at a faster pace with the US economy posting better-than-expected performance, there are still uncertainties as fiscal situations in major economies aggravate, inflation worries in emerging countries continue, and unrest in the Middle East countries may surface. The Korean government will go on with macroeconomic policies which facilitate sustainable growth and curb inflation, while continuing efforts to reform the economy strong enough to absorb internal and external risks. On the other hand, to ensure supply the government will examine the implementation of anti-inflation measures announced on January 13 and come up with supplementary ones to them if necessary. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy continued a recovering track, as major economies such as the US and China posted better-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter of 2010. The IMF revised up the 2011 global economic growth outlook from 4.2 percent to 4.4 percent on the basis of accelerating US economic recovery and emerging countries’ steady growth. However, there are growing uncertainties in the emerging economies, as international commodity prices have been on the rise amid the unrest in Egypt.
US
US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 rose 3.2 percent (advanced, annualized q-o-q), helped by increasing private consumption and net exports. In December, while retail sales slowed down an increase month-on-month, up 0.6 percent, industrial production accelerated a rise to 0.9 percent, and the ISM manufacturing index improved. ISM manufacturing index (base=50) 55.1 (Jul 2010)
55.2 (Aug)
55.3 (Sep)
56.9 (Oct)
58.2 (Nov)
58.5 (Dec)
60.8 (Jan 2011)
In December, both new and existing home sales increased month-on-month by 17.5 percent and 12.3 percent, respectively, while the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell for the third consecutive month. Despite a month-on-month decline in the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points to 9.0 percent, the number of non-farm payrolls slowed down an increase, showing the modestly recovering job market. The Federal Open Market Committee reconfirmed on January 27, 2011 that it would carry out QE2 of US$ 600 billion bond buying as planned, as it assessed the economic recovery, although steady, as not strong enough to improve the employment situation. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
20111
20101
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
-2.6
1.6
5.0
2.9
3.7
1.7
2.6
3.2
-
-
-1.2
2.0
0.9
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.4
4.4
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.1
-1.7
-1.4
5.5
7.8
17.2
10.0
4.4
-
-
- Construction investment for housing
-22.9
10.6
-0.8
-3.0
-12.3
25.7
-27.3
3.4
-
-
Industrial production
-9.3
2.0
1.7
5.7
1.8
1.7
1.6
0.6
0.9
-
Retail sales
-6.4
1.9
1.5
6.6
2.3
1.1
0.8
3.3
0.6
-
5.4
10.5
13.1
-4.7
-13.9
8.4
-25.3
15.4
12.3
-
New non-farm payroll employment (thousand)3
-422
-256
-135
76
39
181
-46
128
121
36
Consumer prices
-0.3
0.6
0.6
1.6
0.24
-0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
-
Real GDP
2
- Personal consumption expenditure
Existing home sales
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce
4
February 2011
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s economy, despite slow-down in exports, grew 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 thanks to increasing domestic demand, and achieved annual economic growth of 10.3 percent in 2010. Although prices and the housing price decelerated an increase, the Chinese government raised banks’ reserve requirement ratio on January 20 in line with continuing worries over inflation due to liquidity expansion. M2 growth (y-o-y, %) 17.6 (Jul 2010)
19.2 (Aug)
19.0 (Sep)
19.3 (Oct)
19.5 (Nov)
19.7 (Dec)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009 Annual Real GDP
20101
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
9.1
9.1
10.7
10.3
11.9
10.3
9.6
9.8
-
-
Industrial production
11.0
12.4
18.0
15.7
19.6
17.6
13.5
13.3
13.3
13.5
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
30.5
33.3
30.5
24.5
26.4
25.5
24.5
24.5
24.9
24.5
Retail sales
15.5
15.4
16.9
18.4
17.9
18.5
18.4
18.8
18.7
19.1
Exports
-16.0
-20.3
0.2
31.3
28.7
40.9
32.5
25.2
34.9
17.9
Consumer prices
-0.7
-1.3
0.7
3.3
2.2
2.9
3.5
4.7
5.1
4.6
Producer prices
-5.4
-7.7
-2.1
5.5
5.2
6.8
4.5
5.7
6.1
5.9
1. Preliminary Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s economy showed signs of picking up, as export growth speeded up in November and industrial production posted an increase of 11 month high in December. Japan’s Cabinet Office upgraded its economic assessment on January 21, 2011 for the first time in seven months from the economy “being at standstill” to “some movements toward a pickup being seen”. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
Real GDP Industrial and mining production Retail sales (y-o-y, %) Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
20101
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
-6.3
-0.3
1.4
-
1.7
0.7
1.1
-
-
-21.8
5.3
5.9
16.0
7.0
1.5
-1.8
-1.6
3.1
-2.3
-1.9
-0.7
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
-0.4
-2.1
-34.2
-35.5
-8.7
-
44.8
35.2
18.8
-
-
-1.4
-2.2
-2.0
-0.7
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.1
0.0
1. Preliminary Source: Japan’s Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
Eurozone’s economy continued steady recovery, as worries over the European fiscal crisis eased with the successful bond sales by Portugal and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). At the EU finance ministers’ meeting between January 17 and 18, EU finance ministers agreed that they wanted tougher stress tests for the region’s banks, and postponed decisions on recapitalizing the EFSF. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Preliminary Source: Eurostat
6
February 2011
20101
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-4.0
0.4
0.2
-
0.4
1.0
0.3
-
-
-
-14.8
2.8
1.1
-
2.4
2.4
1.1
-
0.8
1.3
Nov
Dec
-2.4
-0.3
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.0
0.4
-0.6
-0.3
-0.6
-18.1
-18.7
-9.43
-
12.9
22.3
22.7
-
24.4
-
0.3
-0.4
0.4
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.7
2.0
1.9
2.2
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advanced estimates of GDP) increased 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.2 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Private consumption
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2010 1
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.2
-4.4
-1.0
0.7
5.8
4.1
6.3
3.7
3.3
3.2
-
0.3
3.3
1.7
0.4
-
0.7
0.8
1.3
0.3
3. Percentage change from previous period
Consumer goods sales in December 2010 declined 1.0 percent month-on-month, as the sales of durable and non-durable goods shifted to a decrease, the former from a 6.5 percent increase to a 2.5 percent drop, the latter from a 3.0 rise to a 2.0 percent fall. On a month-on-month basis, consumer goods sales, despite brisk semi-durable goods sales such as clothing (up 4.2%), fell 1.0 percent, as durable (down 2.5%) and non-durable (down 2.0%) goods sales dropped due to a high base effect and rising petroleum product prices. On a year-on-year basis, the index rose 4.3 percent, thanks to strong sales of semi-durable goods such as clothing (up 13.0%), despite slowing down non-durable goods sales (up 0.2%). (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Durable goods3 ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods
5
4
2010 1
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
2.6
-4.7
1.5
2.8
10.8
6.7
9.9
4.9
7.3
5.2
7.0
4.3
-
1.0
5.1
0.3
4.1
-
0.5
0.0
2.8
1.5
2.9
-1.0
8.1
-11.9
5.7
7.9
33.9
14.7
29.5
5.4
16.7
10.7
12.3
6.1
21.8
-20.6
20.1
24.1
76.9
11.1
48.6
-2.1
12.0
0.1
4.8
-8.7
0.3
-1.5
-0.6
-0.7
3.4
7.4
2.7
6.9
7.2
11.9
10.2
13.0
1.2
-1.4
0.5
1.9
4.1
2.2
3.3
3.5
2.9
-0.6
2.7
0.2
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at specialized retailers (down 2.3%) posted a month-on-month decline, while those at department stores (up 0.1%) and large discounters (up 0.6%) edged up. On a year-on-year basis, sales at department stores (up 10.2%) jumped, while those at large discounters (up 1.6%) and specialized retailers (up 2.4%) slightly improved. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009 Annual
Q1
- Department stores
3.3
-0.8
- Large discounters
-2.0
-4.4
2.9
-6.6
2.6
- Specialized retailers2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
0.4
4.2
9.1
9.7
9.0
10.4
8.0
11.1
10.9
10.2
-2.9
-3.4
3.2
4.4
5.9
3.7
7.4
0.2
0.5
1.6
3.5
12.6
5.6
9.7
1.7
7.0
4.2
6.9
2.4
Q2
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
February 2011
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Consumer goods sales is projected to continue an upward trend given increasing real purchasing power in line with a rise in the number of workers hired, steadily improving consumer sentiment, and positive advanced estimates of indicators such as store sales. The number of workers hired has continued to climb with wage increases, leading to strong real purchasing power. Household income (y-o-y, %) -0.7 (Q3 2009)
4.9 (Q4)
7.3 (Q1, 2010)
7.7 (Q2)
6.1 (Q3)
Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 473 (Jul 2010)
386 (Aug)
249 (Sep)
316 (Oct)
303 (Nov)
455 (Dec)
Although the consumer sentiment index slightly declined for two months in a row, it had been well above the base, 100, which reflects positive attitudes of the consumers towards the economy. Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI, base=100) 110 (Aug 2010)
109 (Sep)
108 (Oct)
110 (Nov)
109 (Dec)
108 (Jan 2011)
Domestic credit card spending posted steady growth, while store sales such as those at department stores and discounters soared along with consumer goods imports. Gasoline sales rose at a slow rate, due to cold spells and frequent snowfalls. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 17.2 (Aug 2010)
10.6 (Sep)
19.5 (Oct)
16.0 (Nov)
14.5 (Dec)
16.9 (Jan 2011)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 8.5 (Aug 2010)
6.4 (Sep)
13.3 (Oct)
10.1 (Nov)
11.6 (Dec)
23.1 (Jan 2011)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) 3.9 (Aug 2010)
18.0 (Sep)
0.0 (Oct)
1.7 (Nov)
2.9 (Dec)
22.9 (Jan 2011)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 8.6 (Aug 2010)
10.5 (Sep)
-0.7 (Oct)
11.6 (Nov)
-0.6 (Dec)
2.3 (Jan 2011)
Consumer goods imports (y-o-y, %) 33.9 (Aug 2010)
17.4 (Sep)
34.0 (Oct)
37.2 (Nov)
17.6 (Dec)
37.5 (Jan 2011)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for January data)
It is likely that consumer spending will grow at a limited pace given unstable raw material and agricultural & livestock product prices, the former affected by the unrest in Egypt, and the latter by spreading foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza. Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 2.6 (Aug 2010)
3.6 (Sep)
4.1 (Oct)
3.3 (Nov)
3.5 (Dec)
4.1 (Jan 2011)
Dubai crude (US$/barrel) 74.2 (Aug 2010)
10
February 2011
75.2 (Sep)
80.3 (Oct)
83.6 (Nov)
88.9 (Dec)
92.4 (Jan 2011)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2010 posted a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.6 percent and a year-on-year gain of 16.0 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
- Machinery - Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2009
20101
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.0
-9.1
-7.0
13.3
24.5
29.9
30.2
24.3
16.0
-
-
10.8
5.3
-
2.4
9.1
5.5
-1.6
-1.8
-13.0
-14.8
10.0
-
32.5
38.7
36.6
-
1.8
4.7
22.9
24.2
-
19.4
4.8
-11.2
-
3. Percentage change from previous period
Despite decreased investment in transportation equipment, in particular other transportation equipment, facility investment in December 2010 rose 0.2 percent month-onmonth, as machinery investment turned to an increase for the first time in four months. On a year-on-year basis, the index fell 1.2 percent due to a base effect from a year ago, when it posted a 20.8 percent spike. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
2010 1
Annual
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q3
0.8
-8.2
10.0
19.9
27.6
-
-
12.1
-
7.0
- Machinery
0.6
-12.8
8.7
25.1
36.8
- Transportation equipment
1.1
11.7
15.0
2.3
-13.8
-11.8
20.0
-
-
-9.9
5.0
61.7
-15.5
- Machinery imports Facility investment adjustment pressure3
Facility investment (Seasonally adjusted)2
Domestic machinery orders (Seasonally adjusted)2 - Public - Private
Oct
Nov
Dec
4.3
9.7
5.4
-1.2
-10.0
-9.7
0.2
0.2
5.5
13.2
5.1
-0.5
-0.8
0.0
-2.6
6.1
-3.8
10.9
-0.7
11.3
11.4
-14.2
41.0
-
-0.8
-5.4
-15.9
-3.4
42.4
-27.2
-37.6
-72.2
34.0
20.8
-76.5
232.8
-19.9
35.2
21.6
21.9
7.4
10.8
3.6
7.8
6.4
-16.6
7.2
40.4
39.9
26.3
33.0
21.4
25.4
-1.7
-4.0
12.8
11.2
5.7
5.27
7.4
4.6
3.9
Q4
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
Facility investment, despite recent slowdown, is expected to maintain an upward momentum given rising exports in major industries and positive investment sentiment.
2010
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
February 2011
2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
106
105
102
103
103
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2010 rose 4.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, while falling 4.7 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
2009
Annual
Annual
-2.8
4.4
-
-
- Building construction
-4.6
-1.8
- Civil engineering works
-0.2
13.3
Construction investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
20101 Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
4.4
5.0
-2.3
2.3
-2.9
-2.3
-4.7
-0.7
-0.1
-
1.3
-3.6
1.3
-4.5
1.2
2.5
-
1.7
-6.3
-9.7
-
9.7
7.5
-
3.1
1.1
8.5
-
Q3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction completed (constant value) in December 2010, while dropping 2.9 percent year-on-year, posted a month-on-month rise of 8.0 percent, as both building construction and civil engineering works increased. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Construction completed(constant value) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Building construction - Civil engineering works Construction orders (current value) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
2010 1
2009
Annual
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q3
Q4
Oct
Nov
Dec
-8.1
1.7
5.0
-3.4
-3.8
-6.7
-8.9
-9.4
-2.9
-
-
-1.4
-
-2.9
-9.1
-9.7
3.2
8.0
-10.3
-6.5
0.7
-8.2
-11.2
-11.2
-13.0
-13.4
-7.5
-4.0
16.2
11.3
3.4
8.1
-0.9
-2.7
-3.7
2.3
-7.6
3.0
11.6
-19.7
-5.0
-39.8
-59.6
-48.7
-20.8
-
-
19.8
-
-0.2
-39.0
-56.7
56.4
16.1
-15.4
-16.0
17.0
-10.6
-2.5
-45.9
-38.9
-48.8
-46.8
13.5
41.9
3.7
-30.6
-8.7
-29.7
-80.3
-48.5
30.2
-20.1
-12.9
13.1
19.3
-14.3
18.1
15.9
25.6
15.3
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment is projected to stay in a negative territory, without temporary factors such as end-year budget spending. In 2011, construction investment is likely to be negatively affected by construction orders, a leading indicator, which plunged in 2010 in line with dropping orders of new housing construction and civil engineering works.
14
February 2011
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in January increased 46.0 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$44.89 billion, a huge increase from a year ago backed by global economic recovery and a surge in vessel exports that registered a year-on-year gain of 275.1 percent. Both exports and average daily exports posted a month-on-month increase, which is not typical of January when exports fall from the previous month with end-year demand removed. By export category, major items such as petroleum products (up 53.3%t), automobiles (up 48.2%), steel (up 46.3%), and semiconductors (up 23.3%) all posted a year-on-year gain By regional category, exports to both developed countries such as the EU (up 84.5%) and the US (up 36.1%) and emerging countries such as China (up 15.8%) and the ASEAN countries (up 47.0 percent) all soared compared with a year ago. (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2010
20111
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Jan
365.53
466.38
101.08
120.24
116.32
128.75
41.26
44.15
44.89
-13.9
28.3
35.8
33.1
22.7
23.8
21.4
22.6
46.0
1.30
1.70
1.51
1.76
1.72
1.79
1.72
1.80
1.95
323.08
425.21
98.16
105.63
105.70
115.73
38.67
40.06
41.93
-13.9
31.6
37.4
42.8
24.6
24.6
30.9
21.7
32.9
1.30
1.46
0.47
1.54
1.57
1.61
1.61
1.64
1.82
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in January increased 32.9 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$41.93 billion. Consumer goods imports rose 37.5 percent with the domestic economy recovering, while raw material imports increased 35.1 percent due to rising international commodities prices. The current account balance in January posted a surplus of US$2.96 billion (preliminary), the first surplus in January since January 2007. (US$ billion) 2009
Trade Balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
February 2011
2010
2010
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Jan
40.45
41.17
2.93
14.61
10.62
13.02
2.59
4.09
2.96
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in December 2010 rose 2.8% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year thanks to improving manufacturing production, in particular that of semiconductors and automobiles. By business category, manufacturing production in most industries climbed along with semiconductors and parts (up 5.9%), and automobiles (up 6.4%), while there were some exceptions such as non-metallic minerals (down 5.7%) and food production (down 2.1%). A shipment increase (up 2.3%) exceeded that of inventories (up 0.3%), pulling down the manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio for two consecutive months. By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 8.8%) and audio-visual communications equipment (up 10.7%) increased month-on-month, while those of refined petroleum products (down 10.1%) and non-metallic minerals (down 8.0%) declined. The inventories of primary metals (up 6.1%) and machinery (up 8.3%) climbed month-on-month, while those of semiconductors and parts (down 6.6%) and audio-visual communications equipment (down 13.1%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 1.6 percentage points from the previous month to 82.5 percent, which is above the average ratio of 78.9 percent from 2005 to 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009 Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
20101 Q4
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q3
Oct
Nov
Dec
-
1.3
-
5.0
2.1
-2.9
-4.2
1.5
2.8
(y-o-y)
-0.8
16.2
16.7
19.5
11.9
11.3
13.5
10.7
9.8
- Manufacturing
-0.9
16.8
17.1
20.2
12.2
11.4
13.7
10.9
9.9
7.8
46.3
24.8
27.0
19.9
13.0
12.5
11.3
15.3
∙ICT
3
∙Automobiles
-6.8
14.7
27.4
35.7
16.5
15.2
21.8
12.6
11.9
Shipment
-1.7
12.8
15.0
17.2
11.3
11.5
13.8
11.2
9.7
- Domestic demand
-1.8
12.3
12.6
15.4
8.3
7.4
10.5
8.2
3.7
- Exports
-1.7
13.3
18.5
19.7
15.4
17.3
18.0
15.3
18.6
Inventory
4
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
-8.0
-8.0
17.1
15.6
18.4
17.1
18.3
16.4
17.1
74.6
78.4
81.8
83.0
82.6
81.0
79.7
80.9
82.5
3.1
4.0
5.9
5.8
6.5
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.0
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to stay on an upward track, in line with growing exports and increasing major item production, in particular that of semiconductors and automobiles. Average daily exports (US$ billion) 1.55 (Aug 2010)
1.88 (Sep)
1.84 (Oct)
1.72 (Nov)
1.80 (Dec)
1.95 (Jan 20101)
Automobile production (thousand) 282 (Aug 2010) 1. Preliminary
18
February 2011
339 (Sep)
387 (Oct)
389 (Nov)
397 (Dec)
387 (Jan 20101)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Although service production has slowed in wholesale & retail sales and hotels & restaurants due to a cold wave and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, service activity in December increased 1.3 percent month-on-month as robust exports and increasing real estate transactions supported transportation services, educational services, and real estate & renting. On a year-on-year basis, despite sluggishness in real estate & renting and professional, scientific & technical services, service activity in December rose 2.1 percent as transportation services and financial & insurance services showed solid growth helped by strong exports. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight Service activity index
100.0
- Wholesale & retail
21.8
2009 Annual Q1
2010 1
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.9
3.7
2.0
-0.3
2.4
0.4
-4.8
Annual Q1 3.7
5.7
Q2
Q3
Q4
4.0
2.3
2.9
Nov Dec 3.8
2.1
-2.2
0.3
5.4
5.5
7.4
5.5
4.9
4.5
6.0
3.9
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6 -12.7 -10.0
-4.8
1.4
11.9
13.9
13.8
9.7
10.2
7.8
12.3
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.5
-2.6
-0.6
-2.5
-0.2
1.6
1.5
0.9
1.8
2.0
1.5
0.7
8.4
0.7
-1.4
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.8
1.2
0.4
1.7
3.1
3.8
3.5
15.3
8.0
6.9
10.3
9.0
5.7
4.6
6.5
2.4
1.9
8.3
9.4
8.2
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
-4.2
-2.2
6.7
21.3
-9.0
10.4
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.0
-1.7
3.8
0.0
2.0
-1.9
3.1
2.1
-5.2
-6.2
-3.9
-9.5
- Information & communication services - Financial & insurance services
-2.7 -16.2 -24.3 -24.1 -25.5
2.9
-3.0
-4.9
-6.2
-0.8
0.0
7.2
5.4
7.9
7.0
8.2
9.4
7.9
10.8
2.8
9.4
16.5
-3.7
-9.6
1.0
-0.8
1.0
0.0
4.3
6.8
5.7
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
8.9
8.9
10.4
13.2
9.1
11.5
11.1
8.5
5.3
5.6
4.2
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
1.4
0.7
0.0
-3.8
-0.2
-3.5
-0.2
-0.2
2.9
0.1
-4.2
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.4
-3.8
-4.8
-1.4
2.4
4.1
1.3
6.0
5.0
4.0
5.8
1.7
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
0.1
9.0
6.0
-0.2
4.9
7.2
5.3
0.2
6.5
4.7
7.8
- Business services - Educational services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service activity in January is expected to show a gradual increase from the previous month as domestic consumption steadily increases and the Korean stock price index shows strong performance. Meanwhile, service activity is expected to be weighed down by weak construction markets, slowing down facility investment, and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza.
20
February 2011
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
December 2010 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in December increased by 455,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 58.0 percent. By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 284,000), construction (up 25,000), services (up 154,000) and agriculture, forestry & fishery (up 1,000) climbed. Hiring in manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, rising by more than 0.2 million for the sixth consecutive month. With employment in public administration (down 25,000) decelerating the decline, the service sector continued to increase employment, along with a rise in health & welfare (up 174,000), business assistance (up 98,000), and professional, scientific & technical services (up 57,000). By status of workers, despite a decrease in daily workers (down 41,000) and temporary workers (down 75,000), wage workers (up 599,000) continued to expand growth as the number of regular workers (up 715,000) increased. Non-wage workers (down 144,000) including self-employed workers (down 127,000) continued to decline.
2009 Annual Dec Number of employed (million)
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
23.51 23.23 22.90 23.74 23.75 23.63 23.83 23.04 24.17 24.12 23.99 24.11 23.68
Employment rate (%)
58.6
57.6
57.4
59.3
59.1
58.7
58.7
57.0
59.6
59.3
58.9
59.2
58.0
(seasonally adjusted)
58.6
58.3
58.8
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.7
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
58.5
58.8
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-72
-16 -146 -134
-1
-6
323
132
433
369
358
303
455
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
-34
153 -160 -109
24
110
405
296
51.8
414
393
353
454
-16 -163 -151 -143
-49
191
61
172
262
269
284
284
-43 -113 -103 -107
33
-61
44
92
57
50
25
200
- Manufacturing
-126
- Construction
-91
-58
- Services
179
227
38
154
261
313
325
83
80
32
154
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-38 -169
14
-25
-25 -116
-82 -164
-85
-45
-35
-50
1
- Wage workers
247
366
73
175
356
385
517
371
623
541
532
511
599
∙Regular workers
383
564
318
313
386
515
697
651
766
671
699
731
715
-8 -136
-5
125
105
-34
-37
42
∙Temporary workers ∙Daily workers - Non-wage workers ∙Self-employed workers - Male
22
261
-26 -114 -187
-158 -191 -108 -133 -155 -235 -146 -243 -185 -104
-53
-33
-75 -41
-319 -382 -220 -309 -357 -391 -194 -239 -189 -172 -174 -207 -144 -259 -265 -197 -286 -276 -279 -118 -106 31
126
-23
-91 -130 -146 -166 -127
24
34
89
181
117
188
207
212
181
227
- Female
-103 -142 -124 -158
-34
-94
142
15
245
163
146
122
228
- 15 to 29
-127
-99 -123
-77
-43
-12
-58
-44
-57
-53
-76
- 30 to 39
-173 -131 -159 -213 -169 -149
-4
-42
-13
21
17
17
15
-12 -212
- 40 to 49
-24
-68
8
-27
-30
-46
29
-21
48
40
50
48
78
- 50 to 59
198
242
193
156
211
230
294
251
342
295
287
274
299
54
-47
23
49
109
37
47
-44
114
57
60
18
139
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
February 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in December increased by 19,000 year-on-year to 853,000. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) stayed flat at 3.5 percent. By gender, both male unemployment (up 8,000) and female unemployment (up 11,000) increased. By age, unemployment increased in all age brackets except those aged 30 to 39 (down 10,000) and 40 to 49 (down 5,000). The youth unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, landing at 8.0 percent.
2009 Annual Dec
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Number of unemployed (thousand)
889
834
908
943
886
817
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
119
48
107
176
134
60
31
80
-4
83
116
95
25
- Male
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
868
873
808
737
853
222
-75
-13
-10
-82
19
-7
83
-47
-48
-16
-51
8
920 1,130
- Female
40
52
24
60
39
36
38
139
-29
35
6
-30
11
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.7
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
3.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.7
4.3
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.6
- 15 to 29
8.1
7.6
8.6
8.0
8.1
7.6
8.0
9.5
7.7
7.6
7.1
6.4
8.0
- 30 to 39
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.0
3.4
- 40 to 49
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.1
3.2
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.4
- 60 or more
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.5
2.8
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.9
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in December was up 12,000 from a year earlier to 16,270,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 60.1 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to housework (up 118,000) and education (up 38,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to childcare (down 93,000) and rest, timeoff and leisure (down 58,000) decreased.
2009 Annual Dec
Q1
2010
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Economically inactive population (million) 15.70 16.25 16.09 15.35 15.53 15.83 15.84 16.25 15.49 15.66 15.96 15.91 16.27 Labor force participation rate (%)
60.6
59.7
59.7
61.7
61.3
60.7
61.0
59.8
61.8
61.5
60.8
61.0
60.1
(seasonally adjusted)
60.6
60.5
60.9
60.9
61.0
60.6
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.1
60.7
60.5
61.0
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
447
481
514
445
374
456
143
166
146
128
133
257
12
40
-17
78
48
19
15 -125 -118 -126 -149 -107 -103
-93
- Housework
148
330
131
125
100
235
201
237
175
203
189
215
118
- Education
31
-64
90
58
11
-36
12
-74
23
46
55
90
38
- Old age
88
98
52
102
105
92
80
193
59
43
25
49
24
123
107
162
112
94
123
-56 -187
-27
15
-27
4
-58
- Childcare
- Rest Source: Statistics Korea
24
February 2011
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock market in January was lifted by the so-called “January effect” at the beginning of the year. In early January, the KOSPI hit a record high, rising beyond 2110-point. The stock market thereafter decelerated an increase due to Japan’s credit rating downgrade, unrest in Egypt, and increasing prospects of China’s further tightening measures. Foreign investors reduced their net-buying of Korean shares in January, purchasing 0.3 trillion won, due to inflation worries of emerging markets and increased redemption for profit taking after the short-term surge in stock prices. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI
KOSDAQ
Dec 2010
Jan 2011
Change
Dec 2010
Jan 2011
Change1
Stock price index
2,051.0
2,069.7
+18.7 (+0.9%)
510.7
521.4
+10.7 (+2.1%)
Market capitalization
1,141.9
1,156.7
+14.8 (+1.3%)
98.0
102.1
+4.1 (+7.5%)
1
Average daily trade value
6.0
7.7
+1.7 (+27.9%)
2.3
2.3
+0.7 (+46.1%)
Foreign stock ownership
32.9
32.5
-0.4 (-1.2%)
10.3
10.4
+0.1 (+1.0%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in January decreased 13.3 won to wrap up the month at 1,121.5 won from 1,134.8 won at the end of December. The won/dollar exchange rate fell due to continuing recovery expectations in domestic and foreign economies. However, the decline decelerated due to geopolitical risks posed by the Egyptian crisis at the end of the month. The won/yen exchange rate was up 25.7 won month-on-month as Japanese investors’ appetite for foreign assets increased on expectations of global economic recovery. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Change1
Won/Dollar
929.8
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,121.5
1.2
Won/100Yen
783.4
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,367.9
1.9
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
February 2011
2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields increased in January due to the key interest rate hike and concerns over inflation. Treasury bond yields surged after the Bank of Korea raised the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75 percent on January 13, 2011 to rein in inflation. In addition, foreign investors’ net-selling position on Korean treasury bonds and continuously increasing US Treasury Bond yields contributed to the rise. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
2010 Dec
Jan
2011 Change1
Call rate (1 day)
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.51
2.51
2.75
+24
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.80
2.80
3.05
+25
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.19
3.38
3.96
+58
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.03
4.27
4.75
+48
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
3.88
4.08
4.41
+33
1. Basis point changes in December 2010 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in November expanded 7.4 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. Although money supply from overseas sectors increased in line with the current account and capital account surplus, the year-on-year M2 growth fell due to decelerating private credit growth. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2008 M1
Annual
Q1
Q2
2009 Q3
20104
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Nov Nov1 11.8
-1.8
-12.4
-0.1
2.1
5.0
16.3
10.8
17.6
18.9
17.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
M2
14.3
13.3
15.3
14.7
13.8
10.3
11.5
10.1
9.9
9.8
9.4
9.5
8.6
7.4 1,680
Lf 3
11.9
11.6
12.8
12.1
11.2
7.9
8.8
7.3
7.8
7.8
8.5
9.1
8.2
7.3 2,146
2
415
1. Balance at end November 2010, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In December, bank deposits as well as asset management company (AMC) deposits decreased affected by rising money demand at the end of the year. Bank deposits significantly accelerated the decline due to the year-end fiscal spending by local governments and the withdrawal of funds by businesses for debt ratio management. Asset management company (AMC) deposits showed a sharp decline due to plummeting money market funds (MMFs) affected by the outflows of treasury surplus and corporate funds at the end of the year. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2008
2009
2010
Annual
Dec
Annual
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dec1
Bank deposits
104.3
-8.2
54.8
-8.3
13.7
-2.4
-8.7
1,045
AMC deposits
63.0
12.8
-27.6
-11.1
0.1
0.0
-11.2
315
1. Balance at end December, trillion won
28
February 2011
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) surplus in December expanded from the previous month to US$2.11 billion. The goods account surplus increased to US$3.68 billion from the previous month’s US$3.17 billion driven by an increase in exports amid global economic recovery. The service account deficit rose to US$1.15 billion from the previous month’s deficit of US$300 million as royalties and other service-related payments increased. The primary income account, which posted a substantial deficit in November due to interim dividend payouts made by a few companies, greatly narrowed the deficit to US$30 million from the previous month’s deficit of US$690 million. Meanwhile, the secondary income account deficit increased to US$390 million from US$240 a month earlier. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Nov
Dec1
Current account
32.79
28.21
0.26
8.86
9.93
9.16
1.93
2.11
- Goods balance
37.87
41.90
4.79
12.24
12.54
12.34
3.17
3.68
- Service balance
-6.64
-11.23
-4.20
-1.87
-2.96
-2.20
-0.30
-1.15
- Income balance
2.28
0.77
0.55
-1.01
1.30
-0.07
-0.69
-0.03
- Current transfers
-0.71
-0.71
-0.87
-0.50
-0.95
-0.91
-0.24
-0.39
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in December narrowed the outflow to US$340 million, down from the previous month’s outflow of US$2.19 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -0.16 (Q1 2010)
-9.10 (Q2)
-7.68 (Q3); -5.87 (Oct)
-2.19 (Nov)
-0.34 (Dec1)
1. Preliminary
The direct investment account expanded the net outflow to register US$1.61 billion from the previous month’s deficit of US$1.29 billion as locals’ overseas investment increased. The portfolio investment account turned to an outflow of US$ 2.41 billion from the previous month’s inflow of US$2.23 billion as foreign investors sold Korean bonds after the Korean government revived the tax on interest income from Treasury bonds held by foreigners. The financial derivatives account surplus increased to US$510 million from the previous month’s US$110 million as gains from overseas financial derivative transactions increased. The other investment account shifted from the previous month’s net outflow of US$1.49 billion to a net inflow of US$1.27 billion as financial institutions’ borrowing increased. The current account balance in January is expected to fall from the previous month as imports surge due to the rising demand for energy during the winter season and the domestic economic recovery.
30
February 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in January 2011 increased 4.1 percent year-on-year and 0.9 percent month-onmonth. The index rose as prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products surged due to the spread of foot-and-mouth disease, and those of processed food and oil products rose as a result of higher prices of international commodities such as oil. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 2.6 percent year-onyear and 0.6 percent month-on-month in January due to a low base effect. Consumer prices of basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 4.7 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2010
2011
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Month-on-Month (%)
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.2
-0.6
0.6
0.9
Year-on-Year (%)
3.1
2.7
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.6
4.1
3.3
3.5
4.1
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.6
(m-o-m)
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.6
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
3.8
3.4
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
4.1
4.8
3.6
3.9
4.7
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products increased 3.3 percent month-on-month, as prices of vegetables and livestock products rose due to a cold spell, heavy snow, and widespread damage from foot-and-mouth disease. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in Jan (m-o-m, %) Pork (15.1), Chinese cabbage (22.2), cucumber (27.4), mackerel (15.7), green onion (12.3), chicken (8.3), apple (7.4), imported beef (5.8), radish (-27.4), green chili (-7.4)
Prices of industrial products surged 3.9 percent month-on-month, led by processed food and oil products, due to a price rise in international commodities such as oil and grains. International oil prices (Dubai crude, US$/barrel) 72.6 (Jul 2010)
74.2 (Aug)
75.2 (Sep)
80.3 (Oct)
83.6 (Nov)
88.9 (Dec)
92.5 (Jan 2011)
Public utility charges rose 0.9 percent month-on-month due to the increase of regional public utility charges and health care fees. Personal service charges also went up (0.6%, mo-m), led by dining out and group travel prices, which were affected by rising income amid economic recovery and inflation expectations.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Month-on-Month (%)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.9
3.3
1.1
3.9
0.3
0.9
0.6
Contribution (%p)
0.93
0.31
0.34
0.24
0.02
0.14
0.20
Year-on-Year (%)
4.1
17.5
4.3
10.9
2.6
1.1
2.6
Contribution (%p)
4.12
1.49
1.35
0.64
0.24
0.17
0.90
Source: Statistics Korea
32
February 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices In January 2011, international oil and domestic petroleum product prices continued an upward trend. International oil prices (Dubai crude) rose to more than US$90 per barrel as demand for heating oil surged due to cold spells in Europe, speculative cash flows increased, and geopolitical risks were heightened by the unrest in Egypt. (US$/barrel, period average) 2007
2008
2009
2011
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Dubai crude
68.4
94.3
61.9
72.6
74.2
75.2
80.3
83.6
88.9
92.5
Brent crude
72.8
97.5
61.7
75.7
77.2
77.9
83.2
85.8
91.8
96.8
WTI crude
72.3
99.9
61.9
76.3
76.6
75.3
81.9
84.4
89.2
89.5
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)
Although exchange rates stabilized, domestic oil product prices rose with increasing international oil prices. Won/dollar exchange rate (average) 1,123 (Oct 2010)
1,126 (Nov)
1,148 (Dec)
1,120 (Jan 2011) (Won/liter, period average)
2007 Annual
2008 Annual
2009 Annual
2010 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011 Jan
Gasoline prices
1,526
1,692
1,601
1,722
1,716
1,700
1,700
1,716
1,771
1,825
Diesel prices
1,273
1,614
1,397
1,518
1,513
1,499
1,500
1,518
1,570
1,621
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
International commodity prices continued to rise in January due to decreased production affected by bad weather and strong demand in line with economic recovery. Non-ferrous metal prices rose as supply concerns were raised amid China’s solid demand for nickel and copper. International grain prices rose due to concerns that supply will be disrupted by bad weather in major grain-producing countries such as Argentina and Australia. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Jan (m-o-m, %) Corn (7.3), wheat (3.7), soybean (5.7), raw sugar (3.2), copper (4.8), aluminum (3.7), nickel (6.2), zinc (4.1), lead (5.7), tin (4.8)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2007
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2,400
2,536
2,079
2,477
2,687
2,765
2,824
2,952
3,119
3,228
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS
34
February 2011
2010
2011
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market In January 2011, nationwide apartment sales prices increased 0.6 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area posted a slight gain for the second straight month, rising 0.1 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area showed a continued strong upward trend. The prices in South Gyeongsang Province rose 2.1 percent from the previous month and those in Busan were up 1.8 percent. Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities advanced 1.2 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2006 2007
2008
Annual Annual
Annual Annual Jan Annual
2009
2010 Jan
2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jan 31 Jan 101 Jan 171 Jan 241
Nationwide
13.8
2.1
2.3
1.6
-0.7
2.5
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.13
0.19
0.24 0.23
Seoul
24.1
3.6
3.2
2.6
-0.9
-2.2
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.04
0.07 0.07
Gangnam
27.6
0.5
-1.9
3.9
-1.1
-1.8
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.06
0.06
0.10 0.10
Gangbuk3
19.0
8.3
9.4
0.9
-0.7
-2.7
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.03
0.01
0.04 0.03
Seoul metropolitan area
24.6
4.0
2.9
0.7
-1.0
-2.9
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.04
0.05
0.07 0.06
2.1
-0.6
1.0
2.8
-0.4
8.7
0.6
0.4
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.26
0.35
0.43 0.44
2
5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental prices in January were up 1.1 percent from the previous month. In the Seoul metropolitan area, apartment rental price accelerated an increase, especially in areas with prestigious schools. Apartment rental price increase in major areas (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (1.9), Seocho (2.1), Gwangjin (2.3), Bundang (2.5), Yongin (2.4)
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2006 2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
Annual Annual Annual
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam
2009
2010
Annual Jan
Annual Jan
2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Jan 31 Jan 101 Jan 171 Jan 241
7.6
1.9
0.8
4.5 -1.2
8.8
0.4
1.0
1.4
1.0
1.1
0.22
0.39 0.45
0.42
11.5
2.2
-1.8
8.1 -1.7
7.4
0.6
1.2
1.1
0.8
1.1
0.22
0.53 0.52
0.40
11.3
0.5
-3.6
10.4 -1.8
8.8
0.9
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.3
0.21
0.58 0.54
0.35
Gangbuk3
11.8
4.6
0.5
5.4 -1.5
5.6
0.1
1.1
0.8
0.5
1.0
0.24
0.48 0.50
0.46
Seoul metropolitan area
11.7
2.1
-0.4
5.6 -1.9
7.2
0.3
1.1
1.3
0.7
1.0
0.20
0.41 0.45
0.42
3.0
1.1
1.6
3.9 -0.5
12.0
0.7
0.9
1.5
1.4
1.3
0.20
0.41 0.47
0.42
2
5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in December increased 24.2 percent from the previous month’s 85,704 to 106,411. The transactions were up 29.8 percent from a year earlier.
Apartment sales transactions 2007
(Monthly average, thousand)
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Sep Nationwide
84
74
77
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
36
February 2011
90
2010
Oct
Nov
87
82
Dec Annual Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 82
71
80
73
62
65
62
57
57
73
86
106
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in December rose for the second consecutive month, rising 0.11 percent month-on-month, which were 2.2 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. The aggregate land price increase in 2010 was 1.05 percent, which was slightly higher than the previous year’s 0.96 percent. Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.12 percent from the previous month, with Seoul (up 0.15%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.10%) and Incheon (up 0.07%) all stepping up the pace of increase. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) -0.04 (Jul 2010)
-0.09 (Sep)
-0.08 (Oct)
0.01 (Nov)
0.12 (Dec)
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.1 percent month-onmonth in December, expanding the upward trend since October 2010. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.06 (Jul 2010)
0.05 (Sep)
0.05 (Oct)
0.06 (Nov)
0.10 (Dec)
Land prices by region 2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual Annual Nationwide
3.88
-0.31
2010
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
-4.09
0.96
-1.20
0.35
0.88
0.94
1.05
0.70
0.29
-0.05
0.11
0.03
0.11
Seoul
5.88
-1.00
-6.34
1.40
-1.38
0.68
1.30
0.81
0.53
0.72
0.02
-0.25
0.39
0.02
0.15
Gyeonggi
4.22
-0.26
-4.29
1.22
-1.62
0.37
1.13
1.36
1.49
0.96
0.53
-0.08
0.07
0.01
0.10
Incheon
4.86
1.37
-3.57
1.99
-1.39
0.53
1.16
1.70
1.43
1.08
0.43
-0.10
0.02 -0.03
0.07
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in December recorded 257,000 land lots, increasing 23.9 percent from the previous month and 6.9 percent from 241,000 a year earlier. In 2010, land transactions slightly fell from the previous year, with 2,241,000 land lots. Month-on-month land transactions significantly increased in areas such as Seoul (up 34.4%), South Chungcheong Province (up 30.6%), North Chungcheong Province (up 29.4%), and Gyeonggi Province (up 28.7%).
Land sales transactions
Nationwide
(Land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
2009
Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Annual1 Mar
Jun
Jul
2010 Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
183
171
163
145
181
208
257
208
208
203
226
212
207
241
187
Seoul
33
26
22
28
25
19
21
16
20
13
10
12
11
14
18
24
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
56
52
48
58
41
44
42
38
36
32
40
45
58
Incheon
13
13
10
13
14
11
12
8
9
8
8
7
7
8
9
11
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
38
February 2011
213
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index remained at the same level as December at 99.3. Among the eight components of the coincident composite index, the volume of imports and the domestic shipment index fell, the mining and manufacturing index stayed flat, and the others rose compared to the previous month. Components of coincident composite index in December (m-o-m) Volume of imports (-1.3%), domestic shipment index (-0.4%), service activity index (1.1%), wholesale & retail sales index (0.8%), manufacturing operation ratio index (0.4%), value of construction completed (0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.1%), mining & manufacturing production index (0.0%)
The year-on-year leading composite index in December fell 0.2 percentage points from the previous month due to the previous year’s high base effect. Among the components of the leading composite index, the ratio of job openings to job seekers, value of machinery orders received, composite stock price index, value of capital goods imports, and consumer expectations index rose, while the others such as the value of construction orders received, and net terms of trade index fell month-on-month. Components of the leading composite index in December (m-o-m) Ratio of job openings to job seekers (6.3%p), value of machinery orders received (5.9%), composite stock price index (3.4%), value of capital goods imports (2.4%), consumer expectations index (0.7p), indicator of inventory cycle (0.1%p), value of construction orders received (-10.9%), net terms of trade index (-1.3%), liquidity in the financial institutions (-0.6%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.2%p)
2010
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep1
Oct1
Nov1
Dec1
0.8
0.9
0.3
-0.4
-0.9
-0.2
0.5
101.7
102.2
102.1
101.2
99.9
99.3
99.3
(m-o-m, p)
0.3
0.5
-0.1
-0.9
-1.3
-0.6
0.0
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
0.2
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
7.1
6.8
5.9
4.9
3.3
2.5
2.3
-0.9
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
-1.6
-0.8
-0.2
(m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
40
February 2011
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Economic News Briefing
Korean economy grows 0.5% in Q4 (Advance) Korea’s real GDP expanded by 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the previous quarter, recording eight consecutive quarters of positive growth since the first quarter of 2009. From a year earlier, the fourth quarter GDP increased by 4.8 percent. On the production side, the manufacturing and construction sectors decreased quarter-onquarter by 0.7 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, services rose by 1.3 percent from the previous quarter, mainly led by growth in recreational, cultural & sporting, financial intermediation and transport & storage services. On the expenditure side, private consumption increased by 0.3 percent from a quarter earlier while facility investment decreased by 1.6 percent. Exports of goods grew by 2.4 percent, led by increased exports of general machinery & equipment and wireless communications equipment. Real gross domestic income (GDI), which reflects changes in terms of trade, rose by 0.4 percent from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, real GDP increased by 6.1 percent in 2010 helped by robust exports and increasing manufacturing and facility investment. Real GDI was up 5.8 percent in 2010, the fastest increase since 2002 when it rose 7.2 percent.
42
February 2011
<GDP by production and expenditure*>
(Percentage change from previous period) 2009
GDP
20101
1
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.2
0.2
2.4
3.2
0.2
6.1
2.1
1.4
0.7
0.5
1.6
-0.1
-0.4
2.9
0.4
-4.9
-4.9
0.1
-3.5
1.3
-1.6
-2.5
8.0
9.4
-1.7
14.6
4.2
5.2
2.2
-0.7
Construction
1.9
4.4
1.2
-1.0
-0.6
-0.7
1.9
-0.9
0.6
-5.3
Services
1.0
0.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
3.5
1.6
0.1
0.1
1.3
Private consumption
0.2
0.3
3.3
1.7
0.4
4.1
0.7
0.8
1.3
0.3
Government consumption
5.0
2.9
0.7
0.0
-2.4
3.4
5.8
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
-9.1
-10.5
9.0
10.8
5.3
24.5
2.4
9.1
5.5
-1.6 -4.5
Agriculture, forestry and fishery Manufacturing
2
Facility investment
4.4
5.9
1.8
-0.7
-0.1
-2.3
1.3
-3.6
1.3
3
0.0
-1.7
13.5
5.1
-1.5
15.7
3.7
7.0
1.9
2.7
Goods imports3
-7.9
-5.8
8.7
8.0
-1.3
18.8
5.1
9.5
2.1
-1.4
1.7
0.1
4.7
1.4
2.8
5.8
1.1
0.5
0.4
0.4
Construction investment Goods exports
Gross Domestic Income
*At 2005 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included. 3. FOB basis
CEPA boosts Korea-India trade Bilateral trade between Korea and India has increased significantly since the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) took effect. During the twelve months since CEPA first took effect on January 1, 2010, Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s exports to India increased 42.7 percent to US$ 11.4 billion and imports from India increased 37 percent to US$ 5.7 billion. The major export items were automobile parts (12%), telephones (6%) and ships (6%), while imports mostly consisted of oil products (54%), cotton (6%) and ferro-alloys (4%).
<Changes in Korea-India bilateral trade>
(US$ billion)
Exports
Imports
Trade balance
2009 (before CEPA)
8
4.1
3.9
2010 (after CEPA)
11.4
5.7
5.8
(% change)
42.7
37
48.8
Economic Bulletin
43
KTB market information website opens The Ministry of Strategy and Finance opened the Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) website (http://ktb.most.go.kr) on January 31, 2011, thus allowing investors easier access to information on KTB trading. Although most countries are already running websites dedicated exclusively to their Treasury bond markets, Korea has until now lacked one that would provide detailed information on the KTB market. The new website, which is serviced in both Korean and English, has contents on KTB-related policies, statistics and press releases. It aims to be a one-stop destination for investors looking for information on KTB trading, such as KTB issuance schedules and auction results, bond yields and other statistics. The Ministry will continue to improve the website in order to ensure better service for bond investors.
Korea’s investment in overseas resources development to reach US$7.8 billion in 2011 Korean firms are expected to spend a total of US$7.8 billion in developing overseas oil and gas reserves this year, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said on January 24, 2011. The investment amount is 29 percent more than the estimated investment of US$6 billion in 2010. State-run firms such as Korea National Oil Corp (KNOC) and Korea Gas Corp (KOGAS) are expected to invest US$6.55 billion, or 84 percent of the total investment. Private firms will expand investment to US$1.25 billion in 2011, which is twice the size of the previous year. Of the total investment, US$2.1 billion will be spent in North America, while US$1.2 billion and US$ 900 million will be allocated to the Middle East and Southeast Asia, respectively. Investment in 2010 (estimate)
Planned investment in 2011
Public firms
Private firms
Total
Public firms
Private firms
Total
Investment (US$ billion)
5.43
0.61
6.04
6.55
1.25
7.8
Ratio (%)
89.9
10.1
100
84
16
100
In a separate statement, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy announced that the government has earmarked 7.83 billion won this year to support private firms’ overseas mineral resources development projects. The 2011 budget for the development is 77.6 percent more than the previous year’s 4.41 billion won. This drastic increase reflects domestic companies’ growing interest in entering the mineral-rich emerging markets.
44
February 2011
Korea aims to attract US$ 15 billion in FDI On January 31, 2011, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy announced FDI promotion measures for 2011. According to the plan, Korea aims to attract US$15 billion in FDI in 2011 to the areas such as green energy, services and industrial component sectors. The target is an increase of about 16 percent in FDI from the previous yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s US$13.07 billion, which marked a 10-year high. Korea plans to offer various incentives including cash grants and assistance in obtaining necessary land, along with comprehensive foreign investor relations efforts to highlight the advantages of doing business in the country. The government set aside 14 billion won worth of funds that can be given as direct cash grants this year. Foreign businesses will also be eligible to receive various tax and administrative-related support if their investments in the manufacturing sector exceed US$10 million. Similar breaks will be offered to foreign investments in the distribution services sector that surpass US$5 million.
Economic Bulletin
45
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
47
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P 2010P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.2 6.1
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 1.6 -4.9
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.9 -1.6 14.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.3 3.9
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -0.2 6.2
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 4.4 -2.3
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.1 24.5
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009P
I II III IV
-4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0
1.5 -1.3 3.3 2.8
-13.6 -7.2 1.7 13.0
-2.0 0.7 1.7 4.7
-7.4 -2.3 0.4 7.1
2.8 5.1 4.4 5.0
-23.1 -17.3 -7.0 13.3
2010P
I II III IV
8.1 7.2 4.4 4.8
-1.9 -2.2 -7.5 -6.6
20.7 18.0 10.1 11.2
5.7 3.6 3.2 3.3
11.4 6.4 6.6 2.1
2.3 -2.9 -2.3 -4.7
29.9 30.2 24.3 16.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
48
February 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
49
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2008 2009 2010P
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.8 118.9 138.7
3.4 -0.8 16.7
118.3 116.3 133.8
2.6 -1.7 15.0
125.5 115.5 135.2
7.1 -8.0 17.1
116.1 118.4 122.8
3.6 2.0 3.7
2008
I II III IV
121.9 125.5 119.6 112.4
11.2 9.2 5.9 -11.0
119.8 123.0 118.0 112.4
9.3 6.8 5.5 -9.9
123.6 133.2 132.0 125.5
8.4 16.3 17.1 7.1
114.0 116.0 116.4 118.1
6.8 4.3 3.4 0.0
2009
I II III IV
102.8 117.8 124.7 130.5
-15.7 -6.1 4.3 16.2
101.9 115.9 120.5 126.8
-14.9 -5.8 2.1 12.8
115.9 110.6 113.3 115.5
-6.2 -16.9 -14.2 -8.0
113.7 118.8 118.6 122.5
-0.3 2.4 1.9 3.7
2010
I II III IVP
129.3 140.8 139.5 145.2
25.8 19.5 11.9 11.3
124.1 135.8 134.1 141.4
21.8 17.2 11.3 11.5
123.6 127.9 134.2 135.2
6.6 15.6 18.4 17.1
120.2 123.6 121.1 126.1
5.7 4.0 2.1 2.9
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.3 111.1 128.3 126.5 126.5 123.5 123.4 116.2 119.1 126.7 110.3 100.0
12.0 10.9 10.9 11.2 9.2 7.3 8.9 2.2 6.7 -1.5 -13.6 -18.4
121.9 109.9 127.6 124.8 123.7 120.5 121.6 114.7 117.6 124.2 109.8 103.2
10.5 8.1 9.2 8.9 6.6 4.9 8.0 2.0 6.3 -1.7 -12.9 -15.1
123.9 124.3 123.6 124.6 128.7 133.1 132.4 132.1 132.0 134.7 133.2 125.5
4.5 7.5 8.4 11.4 12.7 16.2 14.5 14.3 17.1 17.1 15.9 7.1
114.3 109.6 118.1 116.1 116.7 115.1 117.4 114.2 117.5 118.9 113.3 122.2
8.0 6.6 6.0 6.1 4.1 2.7 4.7 1.2 4.2 3.1 -2.0 -1.0
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
93.8 99.8 114.7 116.1 115.0 122.2 124.3 117.4 132.3 127.0 130.3 134.2
-25.7 -10.2 -10.6 -8.2 -9.1 -1.1 0.7 1.0 11.1 0.2 18.1 34.2
93.1 99.4 113.3 114.7 112.8 120.1 120.0 113.5 127.9 123.4 126.8 130.2
-23.6 -9.6 -11.2 -8.1 -8.8 -0.3 -1.3 -1.0 8.8 -0.6 15.5 26.2
123.7 117.6 115.9 112.4 111.4 110.6 112.3 112.8 113.3 112.6 113.7 115.5
-0.2 -5.4 -6.2 -9.8 -13.4 -16.9 -15.2 -14.6 -14.2 -16.4 -14.6 -8.0
112.4 109.5 119.2 119.9 118.5 118.0 118.1 115.5 122.3 118.3 118.1 131.0
-1.7 -0.1 0.9 3.3 1.5 2.5 0.6 1.1 4.1 -0.5 4.2 7.2
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
128.5 118.7 140.7 139.4 139.9 143.2 143.7 137.3 137.6 144.2 144.2 147.3
37.0 18.9 22.7 20.1 21.7 17.2 15.6 17.0 4.0 13.5 10.7 9.8
123.0 113.7 135.6 134.9 134.2 138.2 137.1 132.4 132.8 140.4 141.0 142.8
32.1 14.4 19.7 17.6 19.0 15.1 14.3 16.7 3.8 13.8 11.2 9.7
119.2 122.5 123.6 124.6 127.9 127.9 132.8 134.1 134.2 133.2 132.3 135.2
-3.6 4.2 6.6 10.9 14.8 15.6 18.3 18.9 18.4 18.3 16.4 17.1
117.3 117.5 125.8 124.4 122.9 123.5 121.9 120.3 121.2 122.0 122.6 133.8
4.4 7.3 5.5 3.8 3.7 4.7 3.2 4.2 -0.9 3.1 3.8 2.1
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
50
February 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
115.3 118.9 125.9
5.1 3.1 5.9
97.2 93.5 102.9
-3.2 -3.8 10.1
77.5 74.6 81.8
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2008 2009 2010P 2008
I II III IV
113.8 115.1 116.0 116.4
5.9 6.3 5.3 3.4
99.3 103.1 95.5 91.1
2.2 0.5 -0.7 -13.6
81.5 80.8 78.3 69.6
2009
I II III IV
116.8 117.8 119.7 128.6
2.6 2.3 3.2 6.2
81.4 94.6 97.8 106.4
-18.0 -8.2 2.4 6.1
66.9 74.2 78.8 81.0
2010
I II III IVP
122.7 124.6 127.5 128.6
5.1 5.8 6.5 6.2
97.7 106.5 100.8 106.4
20.0 12.6 3.1 6.1
80.5 83.0 82.6 81.0
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 113.9 114.3 115.4 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.7
6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.3
103.2 89.5 105.1 104.7 103.3 101.2 99.8 92.2 94.5 104.1 89.4 79.7
3.4 1.5 1.4 3.2 -0.6 -1.3 1.5 -4.6 0.7 -4.8 -16.8 -20.1
82.1 80.6 81.7 82.1 80.1 80.1 79.3 78.3 77.3 76.9 69.1 62.8
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.8 116.7 117.0 117.6 117.6 118.3 119.1 119.5 120.4 120.6 120.8 121.9
2.6 2.5 2.7 2.9 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.5
73.5 79.5 91.1 93.4 92.6 97.9 98.6 91.1 103.6 99.1 100.6 101.1
-28.8 -11.2 -13.3 -10.8 -10.4 -3.3 -1.2 -1.2 9.6 -4.8 12.5 26.9
62.8 67.7 70.3 72.4 73.6 76.6 78.7 77.7 79.9 77.3 78.2 79.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
122.1 122.4 123.6 123.8 124.8 125.1 126.7 127.7 128.2 128.2 128.4 129.2
4.5 4.9 5.6 5.3 6.1 5.7 6.4 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.0
97.4 88.4 107.2 106.6 104.8 108.2 106.8 97.8 97.9 107.5 103.2 105.4
32.5 11.2 17.7 14.1 13.2 10.5 8.3 7.4 -5.5 8.5 5.6 4.3
78.9 80.3 82.4 82.2 82.8 84.0 84.8 81.5 81.5 79.7 80.9 82.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
51
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Consumer goods sales index
2008 2009 2010P
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
110.6 113.5 121.1
1.1 2.6 6.7
126.4 136.7 156.8
1.6 8.1 14.7
104.9 105.2 113.0
-3.0 0.3 7.4
110.0 111.3 113.8
1.4 1.2 2.2
2008
I Il III IV
111.5 111.7 108.8 110.4
4.5 2.9 1.4 -4.2
129.9 134.1 125.8 115.7
8.7 8.0 -0.1 -9.6
103.6 107.2 94.0 115.0
4.0 -2.7 0.3 -10.7
109.2 108.8 112.3 109.5
2.3 1.3 1.5 0.2
2009
I II III IV
106.3 113.4 111.9 122.3
-4.7 1.5 2.8 10.8
114.4 141.8 135.7 154.9
-11.9 5.7 7.9 33.9
102.0 106.6 93.3 118.9
-1.5 -0.6 -0.7 3.4
107.7 109.3 114.4 114.0
-1.4 0.5 1.9 4.1
2010
I II III IVP
116.8 118.9 120.1 128.6
9.9 4.9 7.3 5.2
148.1 149.4 158.3 171.4
29.5 5.4 16.7 10.7
104.8 114.0 100.0 133.1
2.7 6.9 7.2 11.9
111.3 113.1 117.7 113.3
3.3 3.5 2.9 -0.6
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.3 115.4 113.4 115.1 106.5 109.6 106.2 110.7 109.7 108.9 112.7
5.4 3.5 4.6 6.3 3.3 -0.7 4.2 2.2 -1.8 -3.3 -4.6 -4.8
128.3 117.8 143.6 139.1 136.0 127.1 140.7 121.5 115.2 123.9 108.9 114.4
8.1 6.1 11.4 15.6 7.9 0.6 7.9 -4.7 -3.8 -0.5 -15.3 -12.5
104.4 97.8 108.5 108.5 112.1 100.9 97.6 86.2 98.1 111.6 120.3 113.1
6.7 7.2 -1.3 -2.8 -3.7 -1.8 3.5 8.8 -8.9 -10.1 -7.7 -14.3
108.8 108.4 110.5 109.5 112.3 104.5 106.1 112.0 118.8 106.6 107.7 114.3
4.3 0.6 2.2 4.5 2.0 -2.7 1.0 2.0 1.6 -2.2 1.2 1.5
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 100.9 109.4 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.9 106.7 118.1 120.4 119.5 127.0
-2.9 -6.0 -5.2 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.2 0.5 6.7 9.8 9.7 12.7
103.9 115.8 123.6 123.7 144.0 157.8 138.3 122.7 146.0 144.7 153.2 166.8
-19.0 -1.7 -13.9 -11.1 5.9 24.2 -1.7 1.0 26.7 16.8 40.7 45.8
102.6 96.1 107.4 108.3 112.1 99.4 94.3 85.6 100.1 114.9 120.7 121.2
-1.7 -1.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -1.5 -3.4 -0.7 2.0 3.0 0.3 7.2
114.8 99.0 109.2 107.1 113.0 107.8 111.1 112.9 119.1 116.8 109.3 116.0
5.5 -8.7 -1.2 -2.2 0.6 3.2 4.7 0.8 0.3 9.6 1.5 1.5
2010
116.0 114.1 120.2 116.5 121.3 118.9 120.5 116.6 123.3 125.4 127.9 132.4
6.9 13.1 9.9 7.3 3.7 3.8 8.7 9.3 4.4 4.2 7.0 4.3
145.6 140.1 158.6 144.1 146.7 157.5 163.8 154.3 156.9 165.1 172.1 176.9
40.1 21.0 28.3 16.5 1.9 -0.2 18.4 25.8 7.5 14.1 12.3 6.1
107.3 98.6 108.5 112.7 120.5 108.9 103.1 89.6 107.3 129.4 133.0 136.9
4.6 2.6 1.0 4.1 7.5 9.6 9.3 4.7 7.2 12.6 10.2 13.0
108.8 112.2 112.8 110.6 116.2 112.4 114.9 116.5 121.6 111.3 112.3 116.2
-5.2 13.3 3.3 3.3 2.8 4.3 3.4 3.1 2.1 -4.7 2.7 0.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
52
February 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2008 2009 2010
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
114.8 115.5 120.8
1.6 0.6 4.6
126.8 133.9 139.2
1.8 5.6 4.0
109.9 108.1 113.4
1.4 -1.6 4.9
-
2008
I II III IV
117.5 115.7 113.8 111.9
5.8 4.2 2.2 -5.7
133.3 136.5 123.0 114.4
11.3 11.4 0.1 -13.9
111.1 107.4 110.1 111.0
3.3 0.9 3.2 -1.8
-
2009
I II III IV
106.7 114.1 118.8 122.5
-9.2 -1.4 4.4 9.5
112.7 138.0 138.0 147.0
-15.5 1.1 12.2 28.5
104.3 104.5 111.1 112.6
-6.1 -2.7 0.9 1.4
-
2010
I II III IV
117.6 119.2 120.8 125.4
10.2 4.5 1.7 2.4
136.1 139.7 139.1 141.7
20.8 1.2 0.8 -3.6
110.2 111.0 113.5 118.9
5.7 6.2 2.2 5.6
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.4 106.5 120.6 119.8 115.7 111.7 117.8 111.7 112.0 119.7 107.0 109.1
9.1 2.1 5.7 7.3 2.4 2.9 7.4 -1.1 0.6 -1.6 -9.3 -6.3
132.6 123.1 144.2 144.2 136.9 128.5 134.3 118.6 116.1 127.7 111.0 104.4
12.4 8.3 12.8 20.3 9.3 5.0 8.0 -5.1 -2.8 -6.4 -15.8 -19.8
122.5 99.8 111.1 110.1 107.2 105.0 111.1 108.9 110.3 116.6 105.4 111.0
7.8 -0.7 2.3 1.7 -0.7 2.0 6.9 0.7 2.1 0.8 -6.2 0.1
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.4 102.7 110.9 111.3 112.7 118.2 118.1 110.0 128.2 120.2 118.8 128.4
-15.2 -3.6 -8.0 -7.1 -2.6 5.8 0.3 -1.5 14.5 0.4 11.0 17.7
98.6 115.1 124.4 119.1 138.9 156.1 144.3 124.6 145.0 138.8 146.0 156.1
-25.6 -6.5 -13.7 -17.4 1.5 21.5 7.4 5.1 24.9 8.7 31.5 49.5
109.5 97.7 105.6 108.2 102.2 103.0 107.7 104.2 121.5 112.7 107.9 117.3
-10.6 -2.1 -5.0 -1.7 -4.7 -1.9 -3.1 -4.3 10.2 -3.3 2.4 5.7
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
122.3 109.5 121.0 119.5 116.3 121.9 121.3 119.1 122.0 126.8 125.1 124.3
14.9 6.6 9.1 7.4 3.2 3.1 2.7 8.3 -4.8 5.5 5.3 -3.2
135.5 129.1 143.8 135.2 135.5 148.5 146.1 134.0 137.2 145.1 143.2 136.7
37.4 12.2 15.6 13.5 -2.4 -4.9 1.2 7.5 -5.4 4.5 -1.9 -12.4
117.0 101.7 111.9 113.2 108.7 111.2 111.3 113.2 115.9 119.5 117.9 119.3
6.8 4.1 6.0 4.6 6.4 8.0 3.3 8.6 -4.6 6.0 9.3 1.7
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 110 109
2011 1
-
-
-
-
-
-
108
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
53
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2009 2010P
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
20,718 22,984
3,735 2,330
16,983 20,654
9,111 12,139
109.3 131.0
110.4 137.7
Manufacturing
2009
I ll III IV
5,033 4,942 5,591 5,152
932 696 1,345 763
4,101 4,246 4,246 4,389
1,992 2,212 2,321 2,586
97.0 110.4 107.7 122.2
98.7 112.7 107.5 122.6
2010
I ll III IVP
5,563 6,136 5,549 5,736
525 409 374 1,023
5,038 5,727 5,175 4,713
2,956 3,509 3,012 2,663
121.7 137.5 137.4 127.5
119.6 148.1 140.0 143.0
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,494 1,340 1,757 1,541 1,942 1,669
1,073 71 200 84 433 246
1,421 1,268 1,557 1,458 1,509 1,422
754 653 914 836 941 810
101.9 100.7 120.4 112.4 121.4 132.9
107.5 98.2 116.8 109.1 116.3 142.3
2010
1,752 1,630 2,181 1,823 2,168 2,145 2,017 1,697 1,835 1,717 1,666 2,353
169 107 249 127 122 160 105 102 167 101 102 820
1,583 1,523 1,932 1,696 2,046 1,986 1,912 1,595 1,668 1,616 1,564 1,533
1,010 880 1,065 1,053 1,331 1,125 1,070 911 1,031 970 887 806
107.6 114.5 142.9 131.9 133.0 147.6 136.4 141.4 134.4 123.3 127.9 131.3
111.6 105.7 141.5 143.1 145.7 155.4 144.0 137.2 138.8 134.8 137.8 156.5
-11.8 10.9
61.7 -37.6
-27.2 33.2
-8.2 19.9
-5.2 24.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
2009 2010P
Y-o-Y change (%) -19.9 21.6
2009
I ll III IV
-35.5 -17.7 3.4 20.0
150.8 29.9 280.2 -27.2
-44.8 -22.3 -16.0 35.2
-59.1 -27.6 -19.4 51.5
-18.3 -12.9 -9.9 10.0
-12.7 -8.0 -6.4 6.4
2010
I ll III IVP
10.5 24.2 -0.7 11.3
-43.7 -41.2 -72.2 34.0
22.9 34.9 21.9 7.4
48.4 58.6 29.8 2.9
25.5 24.5 27.6 4.3
21.2 31.4 30.2 16.6
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
6.1 -19.6 26.5 -7.9 56.2 21.2
498.5 -17.4 127.5 -79.0 110.1 -44.5
-34.6 -19.7 19.7 14.3 45.5 52.4
-38.1 -30.7 27.3 16.5 74.6 79.5
-18.3 -15.6 5.3 -0.5 10.1 20.8
-10.9 -9.9 1.6 -5.3 4.0 20.1
2010
11.2 -3.1 22.9 25.1 57.5 1.8 -19.1 26.6 4.5 11.4 -14.2 41.0
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 26.8 -68.6 -90.2 42.5 -16.2 20.8 -76.5 232.8
17.8 30.9 21.3 24.2 59.8 24.1 34.6 25.8 7.1 10.8 3.6 7.8
41.4 65.7 42.7 57.0 102.3 27.3 42.0 39.6 12.7 16.1 -5.7 -0.5
20.9 19.5 34.7 25.6 24.3 23.9 33.9 40.4 11.6 9.7 5.4 -1.2
31.0 8.1 25.1 29.0 39.8 26.3 34.0 39.6 18.8 23.6 18.5 10.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
February 2011
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3
(current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
32,393 35,182
52,562 52,754
107,011 85,981
50,771 28,144
51,914 53,268
Public
89,863 92,192
2009 2010P
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completed (total)
2009
I ll llI lV
19,130 23,628 22,106 25,000
6,570 8,665 7,875 9,284
11,544 13,577 13,029 14,412
18,104 26,392 19,719 42,795
9,219 17,747 8,826 14,980
8,263 7,760 9,971 25,920
2010
I ll llI lVP
20,066 24,196 22,737 25,193
7,317 9,171 8,181 10,513
11,870 14,011 13,497 13,376
16,848 24,649 18,737 25,747
7,646 6,746 6,648 7,103
8,335 16,453 11,249 17,231
2009
7 8 9 10 11 12
6,988 6,719 8,398 7,301 8,060 9,639
2,362 2,427 3,085 2,585 2,780 3,919
4,252 3,929 4,848 4,354 4,854 5,204
6,009 4,660 9,050 10,570 14,538 17,688
3,314 1,756 3,756 4,700 5,101 5,179
2,398 2,807 4,766 5,616 8,853 11,451
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
6,414 6,051 7,602 7,355 7,784 9,057 7,635 7,420 7,682 7,168 7,878 10,147
2,222 2,236 2,859 2,623 2,858 3,690 2,798 2,610 2,774 2,794 3,217 4,501
6,643 4,615 5,590 6,418 8,354 9,877 7,346 4,010 7,381 4,274 7,459 14,024
2,286 2,109 3,252 1,735 1,613 3,398 3,830 1,251 1,567 1,173 1,957 3,973
4,074 2,163 2,099 4,356 6,521 5,576 3,315 2,640 5,293 2,989 5,191 9,052
3.3 2.6
21.2 8.6
3.0 -19.7
60.9 -44.6
-21.9 2.6
2009 2010P
3,924 3,589 4,357 4,473 4,564 4,973 4,495 4,488 4,514 4,024 4,305 5,047 Y-o-Y change (%) -5.7 0.4
2009
I ll llI lV
4.3 6.4 -1.2 3.7
24.5 31.9 21.3 10.7
-5.3 -5.9 -11.8 0.4
-12.0 -1.1 7.6 11.6
33.1 182.9 78.9 11.6
-37.3 -60.2 -14.3 17.3
2010
I ll llI lVP
4.9 2.4 2.9 0.8
11.4 5.8 3.9 13.2
2.8 3.2 3.6 -7.2
-6.9 -6.6 -5.0 39.8
-17.1 -62.0 -24.7 -52.6
0.9 112.0 12.8 -33.5
2009
7 8 9 10 11 12
-2.8 -8.2 6.8 -5.9 3.2 12.9
16.6 14.1 31.9 3.5 8.1 18.3
-11.6 -18.9 -5.4 -10.1 1.7 9.8
-1.8 -27.0 55.3 28.8 78.8 -19.6
135.8 6.7 99.6 90.8 63.3 -33.9
-42.7 -36.6 57.4 16.2 92.5 -9.6
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
5.8 -0.8 9.2 -1.1 7.8 1.0 9.3 10.4 -8.5 -1.8 -2.3 5.3
3.4 9.6 20.1 -0.5 10.0 7.5 18.4 7.5 -10.1 8.1 15.7 14.9
8.3 -4.3 4.5 1.3 8.5 0.4 5.7 14.2 -6.9 -7.6 -11.3 -3.0
17.1 -6.7 -25.3 -14.6 16.8 -15.8 22.2 -13.9 -18.4 -59.6 -48.7 -20.8
-14.7 -23.5 -14.0 -69.8 -63.6 -55.1 15.6 -28.8 -58.3 -75.1 -61.6 -23.3
49.4 4.7 -39.5 192.8 151.2 51.7 38.2 -5.9 11.1 -46.8 -41.4 -21.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.1 111.4 112.3 113.3 114.0 114.7 115.4 116.2 116.6
5.3 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.2
110.7 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.5 115.7 116.2 116.9 118.0
101.3 101.3 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.4 102.6 102.3 102.4 102.6 103.1
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.2 115.1 115.1 114.6 114.0 113.8 113.6 112.7 111.1 110.4
6.3 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.6 1.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -1.8 -3.4 -4.2
119.1 119.3 119.7 119.7 119.9 119.7 119.9 120.2 120.5 120.3 118.7 116.0
103.6 103.4 103.3 102.8 102.6 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.4 100.8 99.1 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.5 115.4 117.6 120.3 122.1 123.2 123.9 124.7 126.1 127.0
-3.9 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 2.7 5.5 7.6 8.8 9.6 10.3 11.3 11.6
113.7 113.9 115.3 117.3 118.4 120.5 121.8 122.8 123.6 124.1 124.7 125.2
94.1 93.9 94.6 95.9 96.3 97.7 98.3 98.7 98.9 98.9 99.0 98.9
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.4 127.1 127.3 127.1 127.7 128.2 129.3 129.6 129.6 128.6 128.5 128.8
11.3 10.3 9.7 8.6 7.9 7.1 6.8 5.9 4.9 3.3 2.5 2.3
126.2 127.7 128.9 130.1 131.0 132.0 133.2 133.6 133.0 131.8 131.5 132.2
99.3 100.0 100.6 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 101.2 99.9 99.3 99.3
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1 2
-
-
-
-
99.1 -
101.8 98.0
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
56
February 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2008 2009 2010P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
3,197.5 32,790.5 28,213.6
5,170.1 37,866.0 41,904.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
434,651.5 358,189.7 464,286.9
429,481.4 320,323.7 422,383.1
-5,734.1 -6,640.5 -11,229.4
4,435.4 2,276.7 768.4
-673.9 -711.7 -3.229.4
2008
I II III IV
86.3 595.6 -3,981.0 6,496.6
1,365.8 4,095.7 -1,208.3 916.9
106,227.0 117,184.4 119,540.5 91,699.6
104,861.2 113,088.7 120,748.8 90,782.7
-2,358.8 -1,656.7 -3,145.3 1,426.7
1,613.1 -887.1 1,137.3 2,572.1
-533.8 -956.3 -764.7 1,580.9
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III IV
263.3 8,857.9 9,931.1 9,161.3
4,785.4 12,240.4 12,542.3 12,335.9
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,257.3 127,090.1
96,569.1 105,344.7 105,715.1 114,754.2
-4,201.1 -1,873.1 -2,954.6 -2,200.6
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.1 -67.6
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7 -906.4
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
19.2 -1,230.5 1,297.6 -1,205.1 1,002.8 797.9 -192.6 -3,587.6 -200.8 4,984.2 1,453.1 59.3
588.5 30.8 746.5 1,018.4 1,234.9 1,842.4 1,900.0 -2,467.7 -640.6 1,327.3 -388.9 -21.5
36,167.2 32,263.4 37,796.4 38,594.7 39,428.7 39,161.0 43,842.5 37,121.5 38,576.5 37,504.4 28,046.2 26,149.0
35,578.7 32,232.6 37,049.9 37,576.3 38,193.8 37,318.6 41,942.5 39,589.2 39,217.1 36,177.1 28,435.1 26,170.5
-996.1 -1,497.2 134.5 137.5 -391.7 -1,402.5 -1,769.1 -1,211.4 -164.8 1,416.8 716.2 -706.3
718.3 670.3 224.5 -2,036.2 441.5 707.6 228.0 305.4 603.9 1,468.6 635.4 468.1
-291.5 -434.4 192.1 -324.8 -281.9 -349.6 -551.5 -213.9 0.7 771.5 490.4 319.0
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,998.9 4,330.0 4,457.9 1,975.7 3,497.5 5,112.5 1,934.4 2,114.4
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,658.4 4,841.9 5,268.9 2,826.0 4,447.4 5,484.9 3,170.8 3,680.2
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,903.4 39,223.8 42,012.2 41,939.6 43,138.3
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,591.7 35,306.3 35,861.3 35,077.4 34,776.4 36,527.3 38,768.8 39,458.1
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 147.4 -751.6 -859.3 -902.5 -1,192.8 -749.9 -304.5 -1,146.2
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2 -34.5
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7 -385.1
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
57
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2008 2009 2010P
-1,154.0 -34,651.2 -25,331.5
-16,940.6 -14,948.0 -19,379.7
-2,405.6 49,727.7 38,552.4
-14,769.9 -3,093.0 -7.4
-23,593.2 2,038.9 -17,228.1
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
109.3 289.6 -174.2
56,446.0 -68,666.4 -27,094.5
-2,043.5 1,860.7 -2,882.1
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
2008
I ll III IV
1,193.5 1,939.6 2,595.0 -6,882.1
-6,108.5 -4,467.0 -3,988.1 -2,377.0
-4,401.5 8,356.7 -9,421.3 3,060.5
-1,249.5 -1,240.7 -3,550.4 -8,729.3
9,213.4 -6,200.3 6,889.4 -33,495.7
-110.4 -226.8 -217.7 664.2
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
-1,279.8 -2,535.2 1,386.0 385.5
2009
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
2010P I II III IV
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6 -8,397.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4 -8,290.7
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1 7,262.3
746.6 -983.9 -388.6 618.5
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3 -5,443.2
-175.6 27.1 31.1 -56.8
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5 -2,487.7
-108.0 241.1 -2,251.5 -763.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
386.7 808.3 -1.5 1,442.8 670.4 -173.6 1,052.9 2,866.3 -1,324.2 -3,562.9 -1,557.3 -1,761.9
-3,111.7 -199.9 -2,796.9 -2,670.0 -792.4 -1,004.6 -1,574.4 -1,537.7 -876.0 -1,087.9 -724.2 -564.9
-949.8 -3,144.5 -307.2 4,093.1 9,168.1 -4,904.5 -7,025.3 -343.4 -2,052.6 5,004.0 -2,524.0 580.5
-130.4 -298.1 -821.0 -560.3 -627.6 -52.8 -551.2 -69.3 -2,929.9 -3,888.3 -1,347.1 -3,493.9
3,201.2 2,762.6 3,249.6 -1,744.6 -9,293.2 4,837.5 1,209.3 6,139.7 -459.6 -23,932.3 -8,079.7 -1,483.7
-58.7 -14.9 -36.8 -86.7 -49.1 -91.0 -176.9 -107.8 67.0 353.5 213.5 97.2
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
-405.9 422.2 -1,296.1 -237.7 -1,673.2 -624.3 -860.3 721.3 1,525.0 -1,421.3 104.2 1,702.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -2,191.7 -336.2
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8 -1,610.0
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 2,227.2 -2,412.2
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9 511.2
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -1,494.4 1,268.0
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.6
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.00 -2,879.60 -2,658.60 -1,719.30 1,890.20
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,612.6 -200.7 -929.5 -554.0 -768.2 757.2 257.3 -1,778.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
58
February 2011
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2009 2010
112.8 116.1
113.6 118.8
112.2 114.3
112.5 114.5
110.9 115.1
111.9 117.0
109.2 106.4
137.7 145.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6 117.8 117.1 117.8
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8 122.1 120.4 121.9
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.0 114.9 115.0
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.6
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 109.6
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 156.1
2011 1
118.9
123.8
115.8
116.3
119.7
122.7
-
-
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009 2010
2.8 2.9
3.4 4.6
2.4 4.2
3.6 1.8
-0.2 3.8
-0.5 4.6
-0.2 -2.6
-4.1 5.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3 7.2 5.4 6.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 12.7
2011 1
4.1
7.1
2.2
2.6
6.2
7.7
-
-
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2009 2010
24,394 24,748
23,506 23,829
3,836 4,028
17,998 18,214
3.6 3.7
16,454 16,971
9,390 10,086
5,101 5,068
1,963 1,817
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847 24,538
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109 23,684
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139 4,156
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340 18,272
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300 17,154
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334 10,347
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069 4,999
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898 1,808
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009 2010
0.2 1.5
-0.3 1.4
-3.2 5.0
0.5 1.2
-
1.5 3.1
4.3 7.4
0.4 -0.7
-7.4 -7.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.0
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.3
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.4
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -1.5
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7 -2.2
Source: Statistics Korea
60
February 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1
2.7
2.9
4.5
3.7
4.3
2,069.73
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2008 2009 2010
52,272.8 61,739.6 67,585.1
307,273.6 357,344.1 399,412.3
1,367,713.4 1,508,550.4 1,639,675.1
1,794,841.2 1,937,336.0 2,096,534.8
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,071.5 1,897,923.7 1,913,084.5 1,925,418.1 1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8 71,472.9
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8 425,673.9
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9 1,682,871.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5 2,154,538.9
Y-o-Y change (%) 2008 2009 2010
7.7 18.1 9.5
-1.8 16.3 11.8
14.3 10.3 8.7
11.9 7.9 8.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6 14.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8 12.9
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.2
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9
Source: The Bank of Korea
62
February 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2008 2009 2010
1,257.5 1,167.6 1,138.9
1,102.6 1,276.4 1,156.3
1,393.9 1,262.8 1,397.1
1,076.6 1,363.1 1,320.6
1,776.2 1,674.3 1,513.6
1,606.8 1,774.4 1,532.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
2011 1
1,114.3
1,120.1
1,356.6
1,356.3
1,514.0
1,495.4
Y-o-Y change (%) 2008 2009 2010
34.0 -7.1 -2.5
18.7 15.8 -9.4
67.3 -9.4 10.6
36.3 26.6 -3.1
28.6 -5.7 -9.6
26.2 10.4 -13.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
2011 1
-3.6
-1.6
5.4
8.7
-6.2
-8.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
Editor-in-Chief Bang, Moon-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho, Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Kang, Ji-Eun (KDI) Lee, Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr