Vol. 33 | No. 4
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues New measures to boost home transactions
42
Economic News Briefing
44
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview While the Korean economy has continued to pick up with improving employment, indicators showing domestic demand have slowed down due to rising oil prices and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, and prices have stayed on an upward track. Mining and manufacturing production fell 2.3 percent month-on-month in February due to the Lunar New Year holiday, without the effect of which the index would have continued a usual increase. Service output lost 3.4 percent from the previous month with the outbreak of food-and-month disease and unusual cold spells, both of which disturbed outdoor activities. In February retail sales declined 6.1 percent month-on-month, as rising oil prices shrank consumer sentiment, and after a surge of sales due to Lunar New Year Holiday demand in the previous month. Facilities investment dropped 8.4 percent month-on-month in February, while the manufacturing operation ratio remained high, which would lead to high investment demand. Construction investment decreased month-on-month for two months in a row, down 8.5 percent. February’s economic composite indices posted month-on-month decreases of 0.2 points in the coincident index and 0.6 percentage points in the leading index, as indicators for real economy, finance, economic sentiment all went down due to the Lunar New Year holiday and growing external uncertainties. Although imports soared due to rising oil prices, a trade surplus in March expanded to US$3.1 billion from the previous month’s US$2.5 billion, as the recovering global economy supported exports. Employment in February continued to improve, adding 469,000 jobs, with agricultural, forestry & fishery industries recovering from the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and helped by job generation in both manufacturing and services sectors. The consumer price, despite drops in agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices, rose 4.7 percent in March, due to petroleum and manufactured products, whose prices increased in line with rising international oil and commodities prices. Core consumer prices accelerated a rise from 3.1 percent in the previous month to 3.3 percent, affected by increasing service charges. In March, although the earthquake in Japan stirred financial markets in the beginning, stock prices rose and foreign exchange rates fell, as investment sentiment recovered and foreign capital flowed in. Both home prices and rent posted a faster increase than the previous month in March, while those in the Seoul metropolitan area slowed down with a moving season nearing an end. To sum up, although the global economy has recovered at a faster pace, there are growing uncertainties such as rising oil prices due to political unrest in the Middle East, worries over Japan’s radiation leak, and the European fiscal crisis. The Korean government will closely watch external changes and flexibly respond to them, so that the Korean economy can stand in the way of solid recovery with employment steadily improving and inflation stabilizing. On the other hand, to curb inflation expectations which lead to price instability, it will swiftly respond to changes that could affect prices, such as an international oil price rise, while stepping up efforts to enable the economy to deal with external changes, for example, oil prices staying high for an extended period. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy Growth is continuing in major countries such as the US and China but uncertainties are growing in the global economy, along with unease regarding the effects of Japan’s earthquake as well as rising oil prices affected by political instability in the Middle East and North Africa and resurfacing European fiscal crisis.
US
US economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2010 has been revised upward from 2.8 percent (preliminary, annualized q-o-q) to 3.1 percent (final). In February, industrial production slowed down to 0.0 percent compared with the previous month and the ISM manufacturing index slightly declined, while retail sales expanded by 1.0 percent. ISM manufacturing index (base=50) 55.3 (Sep 2010)
56.9 (Oct)
58.2 (Nov)
58.5 (Dec)
60.8 (Jan 2011)
61.4 (Feb)
61.2 (Mar)
In February both new and existing home sales dropped 16.9 percent and 9.6 percent monthon-month, respectively, and in January the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index fell for the seventh consecutive month. Unemployment declined to 8.8 percent in March, a drop of 0.1 percentage point month-onmonth, with the labor market slowly improving thanks to increasing non-farm payrolls. On March 15, the Federal Open Market Committee estimated that the economy was making a solid recovery and the employment market was gradually improving. The committee also reiterated its view that the US$600 billion QE2 program, the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing, should be carried out as planned. (Percentage change from previous period) 20101
2009
Real GDP
2
20111
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
-2.6
5.0
2.9
3.7
1.7
2.6
3.1
-
-
-
-1.2
0.9
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.4
4.0
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.1
-1.4
5.5
7.8
17.2
10.0
7.7
-
-
-
- Housing construction investment
-22.9
-0.8
-3.0
-12.3
25.7
-27.3
3.3
-
-
-
Industrial production
-11.2
1.4
5.3
2.0
1.7
1.6
0.9
0.2
0.0
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
-6.4
1.5
6.5
2.1
1.3
0.8
3.3
0.7
1.0
-
5.2
11.9
-4.5
-12.3
7.5
-25.1
13.8
3.4
-9.6
-
New non-farm payroll employment (thousand)3
-422
-135
78
39
181
-46
139
68
194
216
Consumer prices
-0.3
0.7
1.6
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.5
-
Retail sales Existing home sales
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce
4
April 2011
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s industrial production and consumption remained strong. China, however, faced continued inflationary pressure due to increasing grain and raw material prices as well as higher demand. The country’s trade balance shifted from a surplus of US$6.5 billion in January to a deficit of US$7.3 billion in February with decreasing exports during the Lunar New Year holiday and surging raw material imports due to a rise in international commodities prices. Prices remained high, while liquidity growth slowed down as a result of the key interest rate and banks’ reserve requirement ratio hikes. M2 growth (%) 19.0 (Sep 2010)
19.3 (Oct)
19.5 (Nov)
19.7 (Dec)
17.2 (Jan 2011)
15.7 (Feb)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
20101 Q2
Q3
Q4
9.1
10.7
10.3
11.9
10.3
9.6
9.8
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
30.5
30.5
24.5
26.4
25.5
24.5
Retail sales
15.5
16.9
18.4
17.9
18.5
18.4
Industrial production
11.0
18.0
15.7
19.6
16.0
Exports Consumer prices
-16.0
0.2
31.3
28.7
-0.7
0.7
3.3
Producer prices
-5.4
-2.1
5.5
2009 Real GDP
1. Preliminary
20111 Feb Jan -
-
24.5
-
24.9
18.8
19.9
11.6
13.5
13.3
-
14.9
40.9
32.5
25.2
37.7
2.4
2.2
2.9
3.5
4.7
4.9
4.9
5.2
6.8
4.5
5.7
6.6
7.2
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Uncertainties regarding the Japanese economy significantly increased as a result of the March 11 earthquake, while industrial production and exports decelerated an increase. Japan’s Cabinet Office said on March 23 that the economy had been affected by the earthquake and its power to pick up had been weakening. (Percentage change from previous period) Annual
Q1
20101 Q2
2009 Real GDP Industrial and mining production Retail sales (y-o-y, %) Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Preliminary
Annual
Q4
Q3
Q4
20111 Feb Jan
-6.3
1.8
4.0
1.5
0.5
0.8
-0.3
-
-
-21.8
5.9
16.0
7.0
1.5
-1.8
-1.6
1.3
0.4
-2.3
-0.7
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
-0.4
0.1
0.1
-34.2
-8.7
25.7
44.8
35.2
18.8
10.8
2.9
-
-1.4
-2.0
-0.7
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
Source: Japan’s Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
Eurozone’s economic recovery has continued with Germany and other major countries leading the way despite fresh concerns over fiscal crises in countries such as Portugal. The EU summit on Mach 24-25 failed to agree on steps to raise the ceiling for loans from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from 250 billion euros to 440 billion. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y, %) Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 1. Preliminary
6
April 2011
Source: Eurostat
1
20111
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
-4.0
0.2
1.7
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.3
-
-
-14.9
1.1
7.1
2.4
2.4
1.0
1.7
0.0
-
-2.2
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.2
-0.1
-18.1
-9.4
20.1
12.9
22.3
22.8
21.8
27.0
-
0.3
0.4
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.4
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary GDP) increased 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.2 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009
Private consumption2 (Seasonally adjusted)3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.0
-4.7
-1.1
0.4
5.6
4.1
6.6
3.5
3.6
2.9
-
-0.3
3.7
1.4
0.9
-
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
3. Percentage change from previous period
In February, retail sales fell 6.1 percent month-on-month and 0.8 percent year-on-year with non-durable and semi-durable goods leading the trend, following a surge of sales due to Lunar New Year holiday demand in the previous month and as consumer sentiment dipped affected by high oil prices and outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease. On a month-on-month basis, sales of durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods declined 2.2 percent, 8.2 percent, and 7.7 percent, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, both durable goods sales and semi-durable goods sales expanded 9.0 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively, whereas those of non-durable ones declined due to higher prices of food and oil products. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Durable goods3 ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods
5
4
20111
2010
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb
2.7
10.9
6.6
9.7
4.9
7.5
5.1
4.3
10.6
-0.8
-
3.8
-
0.6
-0.1
3.3
0.8
-0.4
4.1
-6.1
8.2
34.1
14.9
29.6
5.6
17.0
10.6
6.2
14.0
9.0
21.8
77.0
11.1
48.9
-2.1
12.0
0.1
-8.6
7.7
2.9
1.3
4.5
6.8
2.5
6.2
6.6
11.1
12.0
11.1
2.3
1.2
4.0
2.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
-0.7
0.2
9.3
-6.9
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales inched up 0.2 percent at convenience stores, which are not affected by holiday demand, but fell 9.0 percent at department stores and 15.7 percent at large discounters, the decline of which came after a sales increase due to Lunar New Year holiday demand. On a year-on-year basis, sales grew by 10.0% at convenience stores and 3.1% at department stores, but slipped by 10.8% at large discounters and 13.6% at supermarkets. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20111
2010
2009 Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
- Department stores
4.3
9.7
8.8
7.5
9.2
7.4
10.5
10.0
20.5
3.1
- Large discounters
-2.2
2.7
4.4
5.4
4.1
7.6
0.8
2.6
20.4
-10.8
3.0
12.7
5.6
9.7
1.8
7.3
4.2
2.4
6.6
1.9
- Specialized retailers2
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
April 2011
Feb
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Consumer goods sales in March, despite factors interfering in consumer sentiment such as the earthquake in Japan and rising food and energy product prices, is projected to increase, given a rise in household income and high estimates of advanced indicators. Also, amid a continued rise in wages, the number of workers hired has grown, providing a boost to real purchasing power. Household income (y-o-y, %) 4.9 (Q4 2009)
7.4 (Q1, 2010)
7.6 (Q2)
6.1 (Q3)
2.4 (Q4)
Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 249 (Sep 2010)
316 (Oct)
303 (Nov)
455 (Dec)
331 (Jan 2011)
469 (Feb)
Sales at department stores and large discounters accelerated compared with February, when they dropped considerably following a sales surge due to Lunar New Year holiday demand, while domestic credit card spending and imports of consumer goods steadily grew. However, gasoline sales slowed down due to high oil prices. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 19.5 (Oct 2010)
16.0 (Nov)
14.5 (Dec)
16.9 (Jan 2011)
10.8 (Feb)
24.0 (Jan 2011)
5.2 (Feb)
13.1 (Mar1)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 13.3 (Oct 2010)
10.1 (Nov)
11.6 (Dec)
12.4 (Mar1)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) 0.0 (Oct 2010)
1.7 (Nov)
2.9 (Dec)
21.4 (Jan 2011)
-10.9 (Feb)
2.1 (Mar1)
5.7 (Feb)
-1.9 (Mar1)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) -0.7 (Oct 2010)
11.6 (Nov)
-0.5 (Dec)
5.6 (Jan 2011)
Consumer goods imports (y-o-y, %) 34.0 (Oct 2010)
37.2 (Nov)
17.6 (Dec)
44.0 (Jan 2011)
22.5 (Feb)
28.6 (Mar1)
1. Preliminary Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for March data)
With continuing uncertainties at home and abroad, consumer sentiment is declining, which would lead to a slowdown in consumption to some extent. The sentiment fell below the benchmark of 100 for the first time since May 2009 due to the earthquake and radiation leak in Japan as well as rising food and energy prices. Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI, base=100) 108 (Oct 2010)
10
April 2011
110 (Nov)
109 (Dec)
108 (Jan 2011)
105 (Feb)
98 (Mar)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2010 posted a quarter-onquarter decrease of 1.0 percent and a year-on-year gain of 15.9 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008
Facility investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3
- Machinery - Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
20101
2009
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-1.0
-9.8
-9.4
12.2
25.0
29.1
30.5
26.6
15.9
-
-
9.1
7.8
-
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-1.8
-13.5
-18.1
10.1
30.8
30.0
35.3
38.9
20.5
1.8
2.8
24.4
19.1
6.7
24.2
15.6
-6.6
0.6
3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in February fell 8.4 percent month-on-month due to decreased investment in machinery, but rose 1.6 percent year-on-year thanks to increased investment in transportation equipment. Facility investment is projected to decrease, given a slowdown in leading indicators, in particular machinery imports, and bleak outlook for corporate investment amid growing external uncertainties. Still, the trend needs to be watched since there are positive signs such as increasing domestic machinery orders and exports. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Facility investment (Seasonally adjusted)2 - Machinery - Transportation equipment
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-2.3
-9.4
25.1
30.0
29.5
29.3
-
-
-
4.0
6.7
-2.4
-12.6
30.5
32.5
Dec
Jan
1
Feb1
13.6
7.4
21.2
1.6
7.2
-5.4
1.3
3.5
-8.4
37.1
37.4
17.1
9.5
26.6
0.7
-1.7
4.6
4.3
19.3
2.8
-0.1
-1.2
-1.8
-1.3
6.0
-14.1
-10.3
11.2
10.3
24.7
-0.2
11.3
34.9
19.7
26.7
-
-
-
-4.0
15.2
-3.6
4.1
29.1
-15.5
-0.3
5.0
62.4
-37.9
-43.7
-42.2
-71.7
31.4
213.9
-31.5
20.9
-15.8
-18.2
21.8
22.6
35.5
22.0
7.8
4.3
25.1
27.1
6.4
-16.6
40.4
48.3
51.3
40.0
26.3
25.4
22.2
-1.9
Manufacturing operation ratio
-3.2
-3.5
8.8
19.2
10.8
1.8
5.3
3.7
5.6
1.6
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
-1.7
-3.7
9.5
20.4
12.1
3.4
4.6
3.7
6.8
2.4
Domestic machinery orders (Seasonally adjusted)2 - Public - Private - Machinery imports
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
2010
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
April 2011
2011
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
103
103
104
104
102
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2010 fell 1.0 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.9 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2008 Annual
Annual
-2.8 -
- Building construction - Civil engineering works
Construction investment
2
(Seasonally adjusted)3
20101
2009 Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
3.4
3.2
4.0
-1.4
4.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.9
-
-1.2
0.7
-
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-4.6
-2.3
0.2
2.4
-2.9
4.5
-5.1
-6.3
-2.8
-0.2
11.6
8.2
5.6
0.5
4.0
1.0
1.7
-2.9
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
The value of construction completion in February dropped 8.5 percent month-on-month and 19.2 percent year-on-year, as both building construction and civil engineering works declined. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Construction completed(constant value) (Seasonally adjusted)
- Civil engineering works Construction orders (current value)
Annual1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Dec1
Jan1
Feb1
-8.1
1.6
-3.3
3.4
-4.3
-6.8
-4.3
-0.1
-11.0
-19.2
-
-
-
2.6
-3.1
-4.3
-1.6
8.7
-8.8
-8.5
-10.3
-6.4
-7.1
1.5
-7.7
-12.3
-8.5
-3.8
-13.6
-21.8
-4.0
16.1
2.2
6.0
0.6
1.9
1.2
4.2
-7.6
-15.7
-7.6
5.0
-18.7
-1.6
-6.7
-3.6
-40.2
-22.5
-33.9
-16.7
-
-
-
-31.4
0.2
-1.4
-22.9
15.3
-11.3
-2.6
-15.4
-14.2
-9.9
8.3
55.3
-1.3
-46.4
-48.5
-46.8
-14.6
13.5
44.3
-29.5
-12.4
-49.7
-7.0
-29.9
29.2
-1.1
-19.3
-20.1
-12.9
19.3
12.1
47.4
-14.3
18.1
15.3
59.5
-23.1
2
- Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
2009 Annual
2
- Building construction
(Seasonally adjusted)
2008 Annual
2010
2011
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
It is unlikely that construction investment will rebound soon considering poor leading indicators, including construction orders and building permit area and contracted investment sentiment of construction companies.
2010
Business survey indices (base=100) for construction projections Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
April 2011
2011
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
75.6
81.3
77.5
87.0
80.5
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in March increased 30.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$48.60 billion. Despite external uncertainties caused by Japan’s earthquake and the political unrest in the Middle East, exports continued to be solid, led by petroleum products (up 87.5%), vessels (up 70.0 %), steel (up 33.2%), and automobiles (up 24.4%). It was the second consecutive month that average daily exports posted more than two billion dollars, registering US$2.03 billion, following February, when the index hit a record high. By regional category, exports to the ASEAN countries (up 39.5%), EU (up 19.6%), China (up 18.6%) and the US (up 14.9%) increased along with those to Japan (up 64.3%). (US$ billion) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar1
365.53
466.38
101.08
120.24
116.32
128.75
44.60
38.61
48.60
-13.9
28.3
35.8
33.1
22.7
23.8
45.1
16.9
30.3
1.30
1.70
1.51
1.76
1.72
1.79
1.94
2.03
2.03
323.08
425.21
98.16
105.63
105.70
115.73
41.76
36.15
45.50
(y-o-y, %)
-25.8
31.6
37.4
42.8
24.6
24.6
32.4
16.4
27.9
Average daily imports
13.16
1.46
0.47
1.54
1.57
1.61
1.82
1.90
1.90
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in March increased 27.9 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$45.50 billion. The imports of raw materials (up 38.0%) and consumer goods (up 28.6%) soared in line with rising international commodity prices and recovering domestic demand, while those of capital goods (up 10.4%) also posted a double-digit increase. The current account balance in March posted a surplus of US$3.00billion (preliminary), accelerating from the previous month. (US$ billion) 2009
Trade Balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
April 2011
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar1
40.45
41.17
2.93
14.61
10.62
13.02
2.92
2.46
3.10
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in February, while rising 9.1 percent year-on-year, fell 2.3 percent month-on-month, as the Lunar New Year holiday and labor-management disputes interrupted operation. By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 6.3%) and audio-visual communications equipment (up 1.8%) increased month-on-month, while automobiles (down 9.4%) and clothing and furs (down 22.2%) went down. Shipments posted a month-on-month loss of 4.4 percent while inventories gained 2.7 percent, which pushed up the manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio for the first time in four months. By business category, the shipments of refined petroleum (up 0.9%) and audio-visual communications equipment (up 0.1%) increased month-on-month, while those of automobiles (down 9.9%) and machinery (down 6.0%) declined. The inventories of semiconductors and parts (up 13.9%) and computers (up 20.4%) climbed month-on-month, while those of automobiles (down 3.8%) and primary metals (down 1.9%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 2.2 percentage points to 82.5 percent, yet hovering above the 10 year average of 78.3 percent between 2000 and 2010 by 4.2 percentage points. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009 Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
20111
2010 Annual
Q3
Q4
Feb
Dec
Jan1
Feb1
-
-
1.1
-0.5
2.4
3.2
4.2
-2.3
(y-o-y)
-0.1
16.2
10.9
11.7
18.3
10.7
13.4
9.1
- Manufacturing
-0.2
16.7
11.2
11.9
18.9
11.0
13.8
9.3
9.3
25.2
19.1
15.2
38.4
18.9
17.0
17.9
∙Automobiles
-6.4
23.1
11.3
10.1
26.5
8.4
22.8
11.3
Shipment
-1.4
14.4
9.9
11.9
13.3
10.6
14.6
10.3
- Domestic demand
-1.6
11.5
6.6
8.3
11.4
4.3
10.2
6.3
∙ICT
3
- Exports
-0.9
18.2
14.5
16.9
16.0
19.6
20.9
15.7
Inventory4
-7.8
17.4
19.1
17.4
4.8
17.4
12.9
11.0
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
74.4
81.2
81.2
80.8
80.5
82.2
84.7
82.5
3.5
7.2
7.8
7.4
6.0
7.3
7.0
6.9
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to stay on an upward track month-onmonth with exports steadily growing and operation returning to normal after the Lunar New Year holiday, but may slow down temporarily if Japan’s recovery from the earthquake takes long, and the slow recovery interrupts supply of parts. Exports (y-o-y, %) 27.6 (Oct 2010)
21.4 (Nov)
22.6 (Dec)
45.1 (Jan 2011)
16.9 (Feb)
30.3 (Mar1)
Automobile production (thousand) 387 (Oct 2010) 1. Preliminary
18
April 2011
389 (Nov)
397 (Dec)
388 (Jan 2011)
297 (Feb)
396 (Mar1)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in February decreased 3.4 percent month-on-month due to sluggish wholesale & retail sales and hotels & restaurant affected by the setback effect following expenditure ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Limited outdoor activities amid the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and cold wave also contributed to the trend. Service activities in all areas except transportation services (up 0.1%) decreased month-onmonth. In particular, wholesale & retail sales (down 6.6%), financial & insurance services (down 3.9%) and educational services (down 3.7%) showed a decline. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight Service activity index
2009
20111
2010
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb
1.8
4.8
3.9
6.2
4.2
2.3
3.1
2.4
4.6
0.2
100.0
- Wholesale & retail sales
21.8
-0.4
5.4
5.7
7.4
5.6
5.0
4.7
4.2
8.2
-1.0
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6
1.4
12.0
14.1
14.3
10.1
10.0
12.0
8.4
4.4
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.4
-0.2
1.2
1.2
0.7
1.3
1.7
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
- Information & communication services
8.4
0.9
1.6
1.9
1.0
0.4
2.2
3.6
5.4
8.1
1.5
- Financial & insurance services
15.3
7.8
5.6
4.6
6.7
2.5
1.4
8.2
7.9
8.0
7.2
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
21.3
-8.6
11.5
-2.4
-15.9
-24.3
-25.4
-19.2
-20.2
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.2
1.6
-0.7
0.8
2.1
-3.9
-1.9
-4.4
0.0
-7.5
- Business services
2.9
-3.0
0.0
7.4
5.3
8.1
7.6
8.4
8.2
8.7
4.3
- Educational services
10.8
2.1
2.8
2.0
3.2
1.4
0.5
3.1
4.4
4.3
-1.8
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
13.2
8.8
11.7
11.0
8.6
4.6
2.5
6.3
3.6
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
-3.8
-0.4
-3.9
-0.1
-0.4
2.7
-4.4
1.7
0.0
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.1
1.0
4.3
1.6
6.0
5.0
4.5
2.5
6.2
1.0
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
-0.2
5.1
6.7
6.0
1.7
6.4
7.3
6.9
-4.0
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Amid continuing decline in wholesale & retail sales affected by higher food and energy prices, service activity is expected to be weighed down by weak logistics performance and leisure activities affected by Japan’s devastating earthquake and radioactive contamination. * Fresh food price index (year-on-year, %) 37.4 (Nov, 2010)
33.8 (Dec)
30.2 (Jan, 2011)
25.2 (Feb)
19.0 (Mar)
* Gasoline price (monthly average, won) 1,716 (Nov, 2010)
20
April 2011
1,771 (Dec)
1,825 (Jan, 2011)
1,850 (Feb)
1,939 (Mar)
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
February 2011 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in February increased by 469,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 57.1 percent. By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 262,000), services (up 227,000) and construction (up 27,000) climbed while that in agriculture, forestry & fishery (down 51,000) declined. Hiring in manufacturing maintained a high growth rate helped by increasing production in mining and manufacturing. The service sector continued to expand employment with increasing health & welfare (up 203,000), business assistance (up 105,000) and professional, scientific & technical services (up 63,000). By status of workers, the number of regular workers (up 604,000) and daily workers (up 27,000) increased whereas temporary workers (down 57,000) decreased. Non-wage workers (down 105,000) including self-employed workers (down 130,000) continued to decline.
2009 Annual Number of employed (million)
Q1
Q2
2010 Q3
Q4
Annual
Feb
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
23.51 22.90 23.74 23.75 23.63 23.83 23.60 23.04 24.17 24.12 23.99 23.20 23.34
Employment rate (%)
58.6
57.4
59.3
59.1
58.7
58.7
56.6
57.0
59.6
59.3
58.9
56.8
57.1
(seasonally adjusted)
58.6
58.8
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.7
58.4
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
58.4
58.9
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-72 -146 -134
-1
-6
323
125
132
433
369
358
331
469
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
-34 -160 -109
24
110
405
268
296
518
414
393
435
520
-126 -163 -151 -143
-49
191
45
61
172
262
269
224
262
-43 -113 -103 -107
33
-87
-61
44
92
57
15
27
200
310
313
325
83
80
203
227
- Manufacturing - Construction
-91
- Services
179
38
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-38
14
-25
-25 -116
-82 -143 -164
-85
-45
-35 -104
-51
- Wage workers
247
73
175
356
385
517
329
371
623
541
532
535
574
∙Regular workers
383
318
313
386
515
697
593
651
766
671
699
593
604
22 -136
-5
125
105
-34
-24
-37
42
-26 -114
-13
-57
-45
27
∙Temporary workers ∙Daily workers - Non-wage workers ∙Self-employed workers - Male
154
261
261
-158 -108 -133 -155 -235 -146 -239 -243 -185 -104
-53
-319 -220 -309 -357 -391 -194 -204 -239 -189 -172 -174 -204 -105 -259 -197 -286 -276 -279 -118 31
-23
24
34
- Female
-103 -124 -158
- 15 to 29
-127 -212
- 30 to 39
-70 -106
-91 -130 -146 -191 -130
116
117
188
207
212
181
292
89
181
-34
-94
142
9
15
245
163
146
150
177
-99 -123
-77
-43
-16
-12
-58
-44
-57
-72
-37
-173 -159 -213 -169 -149
-4
-37
-42
-13
21
17
-29
-36
- 40 to 49
-24
8
-27
-30
-46
29
-39
-21
48
40
50
82
87
- 50 to 59
198
193
156
211
230
294
255
251
342
295
287
247
310
54
23
49
109
37
47
-39
-44
114
57
60
102
145
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
April 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in February decreased by 74,000 year-on-year to 1,095,000.The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the number of unemployed persons in February increased by 108,000 to 996,000 (seasonally adjusted) as people who applied for government-run job programs but were not selected were counted as unemployed persons. The youth unemployment rate fell 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 8.5 percent.
2009
2010
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Number of unemployed (thousand)
889
908
943
886
817
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
119
107
176
134
60
Annual
Feb
Q1
920 1,169 1,130 31
244
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
868
873
808
918 1,095
-75
-13
-10
-298
222
Feb
-74
- Male
80
83
116
95
25
-7
101
83
-47
-48
-16 -160
-63
- Female
40
24
60
39
36
38
143
139
-29
35
6 -139
-11
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.7
4.9
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.8
4.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.6
3.5
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.7
4.4
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.6
4.0
- 15 to 29
8.1
8.6
8.0
8.1
7.6
8.0
10.0
9.5
7.7
7.6
7.1
8.5
8.5
- 30 to 39
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.5
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.6
4.2
- 40 to 49
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.5
3.0
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.7
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.5
3.2
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.8
- 60 or more
1.6
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.5
2.8
6.0
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
3.3
6.5
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in February was up 63,000 from a year earlier to 16,450,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) rose 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 59.8 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to rest, time-off and leisure (up 244,000) and housework (up 85,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to old age (down 121,000), childcare (down 44,000) and education (down 40,000) decreased.
2009 Annual
Q1
Q2
2010 Q3
Q4
Annual
Feb
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Economically inactive population (million) 15.70 16.09 15.35 15.53 15.83 15.84 16.38 16.25 15.49 15.66 15.96 16.73 16.45 Labor force participation rate (%)
60.6
59.7
61.7
61.3
60.7
61.0
59.5
59.8
61.8
61.5
60.8
59.0
59.8
(seasonally adjusted)
60.6
60.9
60.9
61.0
60.6
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.1
60.7
60.6
61.4
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
447
514
445
374
456
143
151
166
146
128
133
424
63
40
78
48
19
15 -125 -152 -118 -126 -149 -107
-66
-44
- Housework
148
131
125
100
235
201
238
237
175
303
189
270
85
- Education
31
90
58
11
-36
12
-84
-74
23
46
55
51
-40
- Old age
88
52
102
105
92
80
196
193
59
43
25
-76
-121
123
162
112
94
123
-56 -189 -187
-27
15
-27
337
244
- Childcare
- Rest, time-off and leisure Source: Statistics Korea
24
April 2011
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market Despite concerns over a slowdown in the global economic recovery, the Korean stock market gained in March helped by inflows of funds from foreign investors. Stock market volatility accelerated in early-March due to external risk factors such as Japan’s devastating earthquake and the consequent nuclear power plant accidents, continuing political upheaval in the Middle East and resurgent debt crisis in Southern Europe. After mid-month, however, the KOSPI rallied led by increasing demand on the back of eased external risk factors, the coordinated G7 intervention to stabilize the Japanese yen, expectations for the upcoming earnings season and continuing inflows of foreign funds. Foreign investors shifted to the net-buying position on Korean shares to purchase 1.1 trillion won in March helped by increasing risk tolerance level, recovering investment sentiment and high expectations for earnings season. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI
KOSDAQ
Feb 2011
Mar 2011
Change1
Feb 2011
Mar 2011
Change1
Stock price index
1,939.3
2,106.7
+167.4 (+8.6%)
504.5
525.4
+21.0 (+4.2%)
Market capitalization
1,086.2
1,181.4
+95.2 (+8.8%)
99.0
103.9
+4.9 (+5.0%)
Average daily trade value
6.2
6.8
+0.6 (+9.6%)
2.1
2.1
+0.02 (+1.0%)
Foreign stock ownership
32.5
32.5
-0.01 (-0.03%)
10.4
9.4
-1.0 (-10.0%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in February decreased 32.0 won from 1,128.7 won at the end of February to wrap up the month at 1,096.7 won. Due to Japan’s earthquake, a possible leakage of radioactive material from the earthquake-damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant and continuing tumult in the Middle East, the won/dollar exchange rate rose to 1135.3 won. The won/dollar exchange rate, however, fell as international financial markets stabilized helped by G7’s coordinated intervention in the currency market on March 18. The won/100 yen exchange rate was down 56.6 won month-on-month as the yen weakened after the coordinated G7 intervention. (End-period) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Feb
Mar
Change1
Won/Dollar
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,134.8
1,096.7
3.5
Won/100 Yen
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,382.2
1,325.6
5.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
April 2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields dipped in March due to rising demand for safe assets amid heightened external risks. Despite Bank of Korea’s key interest rate hike and worries over inflation, the yields fell due to the “flight to safety assets” trend affected by the Japanese earthquake and turmoil in the Middle East. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
2011 Mar
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.51
2.75
2.76
2.99
+23
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.80
3.05
3.17
3.39
+22
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.38
3.96
3.84
3.73
-11
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.27
4.75
4.63
4.51
-12
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.08
4.41
4.28
4.11
-17
1. Basis point, changes in March 2011 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in January 2011 expanded 6.5 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. The month-on-month M2 growth slowed down due to the government’s early spending cuts, outflows of foreign portfolio investments, equity investments by asset management companies (AMCs) and beleaguered savings banks. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2008 Annual Annual M1
20104
2009
20114
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Jan1
18.9
17.8
11.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
11.2
12.9
12.6
426
-1.8
16.3
10.8
17.6
M2
14.3
10.3
11.5
10.1
9.9
9.8
8.7
9.4
9.5
8.6
7.4
7.2
6.5
1,676
Lf 3
11.9
7.9
8.8
7.3
7.8
7.8
8.2
8.5
9.1
8.2
7.1
6.9
6.6
2,153
2
1. Balance at end January 2011, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In February 2011, bank deposits increased significantly while asset management company (AMC) deposits accelerated the decrease. Bank deposits greatly accelerated due to the large increase in time deposits, led by higher deposit rates and the inflows of funds exiting savings banks and those of local government funds. Despite a decrease in redemptions, asset management company (AMC) deposits plunged due to net outflows of Treasury funds and concerns over an interest rate hike. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2009 Annual
2010 Feb
Annual
Feb
2011 Dec
Jan
Feb
Feb1
Bank deposits
54.8
23.1
36.9
16.9
-8.7
2.1
14.3
1,061
AMC deposits
-27.6
11.4
-16.7
9.7
-11.2
-5.2
-8.5
1,301
1. Balance at end February, trillion won
28
April 2011
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in February expanded from the previous month’s US$150 million to US$1.18 billion. Despite rising international commodity prices, the goods account surplus maintained a twodigit growth to post US$1.58 billion, helped by solid exports. The service account deficit considerably narrowed to US$570 million from the previous month’s deficit of US$1.64 billion on the back of decreased overseas travel and business service payments. The primary income account decelerated the surplus to US$540 million from the previous month’s deficit of US$700 million due to increasing dividend payments. Meanwhile, the secondary income account deficit narrowed to US$380 million from US$470 million a month earlier. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb1
Current account
32.79
28.21
0.26
8.86
9.93
9.16
2.11
0.15
1.18
- Goods balance
37.87
41.90
4.79
12.24
12.54
12.34
3.68
1.56
1.58
- Service balance
-6.64
-11.23
-4.20
-1.87
-2.96
-2.20
-1.15
-1.64
-0.57
- Income balance
2.28
0.77
0.55
-1.01
1.30
-0.07
-0.03
0.70
0.54
- Current transfers
-0.71
-3.23
-0.87
-0.50
-0.95
-0.91
-0.39
-0.47
-0.38
Source: The Bank of Korea 1. Preliminary
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in February expanded the outflow to US$2.26 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$1.28 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -5.87 (Oct 2010)
-2.19 (Nov)
-0.34 (Dec)
-1.28 (Jan 2011)
-2.26 (Feb)
The direct investment account slightly decelerated the outflow to US$1.64 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$1.73 billion with increasing inflows of foreign direct investment. The portfolio investment account shifted to an outflow of US$3 billion from the previous month’s inflow of US$900 million as foreign investors turned to a net-selling position of Korean bonds due to concerns over a possible spread of the Middle East unrest. The financial derivatives account turned to a deficit of US$360 million from the previous month’s surplus of US$570 million. The other investment account expanded the net inflow to US$4.86 billion from the previous month’s US$1.77 billion as domestic banks retrieved their short-term loans. The current account surplus in March is expected to expand from the previous month driven by strong exports.
30
April 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in March rose 4.7 percent year-on-year and 0.5 percent month-on-month. Although prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products fell compared with the previous month, high oil product prices and a price hike in personal services led to an increase in consumer prices. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 3.3 percent year-onyear and 0.3 percent month-on-month in February due to a low base effect and an increase in personal service charges. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 4.9 percent compared with the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2010
2011
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Month-on-Month (%)
0.3
0.5
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.2
-0.6
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
Year-on-Year (%)
2.3
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.6
4.1
3.3
3.5
4.1
4.5
4.7
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.6
3.1
3.3
(m-o-m)
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.3
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
4.1
4.8
3.6
3.9
4.7
5.2
4.9
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products fell 0.8 percent month-on-month, as weather conditions improved and the alert level of foot-and-mouth disease was lowered from “serious” to “caution”. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in Mar (m-o-m, %) Green chili (32.4), chicken (7.5), Chinese cabbage (6.3), spinach (-35.7), green onion (-13.2), strawberry (-9.8), pork (-6.1), domestic beef (-2.8)
Prices of industrial products such as processed food and durable goods rose 1.3 percent month-on-month, as oil product prices spiked due to an increase in the prices of international oil and commodities. Public utility charges remained stabilized in general, falling 0.8 percent month-on-month, partly due to low high school tuition fees (down 17.3%, m-o-m). Personal service charges increased 0.5 percent month-on-month, in particular the cost of dining out.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Month-on-Month (%)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.5
-0.8
1.3
4.1
0.6
-0.8
0.5
Contribution (%p)
0.50
-0.08
0.41
0.26
0.06
-0.12
0.17
Year-on-Year (%)
4.7
14.9
5.9
15.3
3.2
0.6
3.0
Contribution (%p)
4.70
1.32
1.84
0.90
0.29
0.10
1.05
Source: Statistics Korea
32
April 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil and domestic oil product prices rose in March. International oil prices (Dubai crude) continued to rise due to political turmoil in the Middle East, with the earthquake in Japan adding volatility to prices. (US$/barrel, period average) 2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2011 Feb
Mar
Dubai crude
94.3
61.9
78.1
75.2
80.3
83.6
88.9
92.5
100.5
108.5
Brent crude
97.5
61.7
79.7
77.9
83.2
85.8
91.8
96.8
104.1
114.6
WTI crude
99.9
61.9
79.5
75.3
81.9
84.4
89.2
89.5
89.6
103.0
2010
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)
Domestic oil product prices surged as a result of high international oil prices. Won/dollar exchange rate (average) 1,148 (Dec 2010)
1,120 (Jan 2011)
1,118 (Feb)
1,122 (Mar) (Won/liter, period average)
2008 Annual
2009 Annual
Sep
2010 Oct
Annual
Nov
Dec
Jan
2011 Feb
Mar
Gasoline prices
1,692
1,601
Diesel prices
1,614
1,397
1,710
1,700
1,700
1,716
1,771
1,825
1,850
1,939
1,503
1,499
1,500
1,518
1,570
1,621
1,652
1,756
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
International commodities were shown to be experiencing price adjustments in March, due to concerns over low demand as a result of the earthquake in Japan. Rising inventories of key commodities also contributed to the decline. Non-ferrous metal prices fell, led by copper and nickel, as the earthquake quelled demand, stocks of major items such as copper increased, and import demand from China decreased. Copper inventories have been rising since last December, and China’s copper imports fell 36 percent month-on-month in February. International grain prices decreased due to adjustments made from recent price surges, and also due to expectations of rising inventories. In March, USDA announced that the world grain stocks may increase from 426 million tons to 436 million tons. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Mar (m-o-m, %) Aluminum (2.1), wheat (-11.0), raw sugar (-9.7), nickel (-5.1), zinc (-4.8), copper (-3.2), tin (-2.6), soybean (-2.4), corn (-0.9)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2,536
2,079
2,553
2,765
2,824
2,952
3,119
3,228
3,323
3,221
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS
34
April 2011
2011
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market The upward trend of nationwide apartment sales prices accelerated in March, rising 1.3 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area increased for the fourth straight month, up 0.3 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area continued an upward trend, led by South Gyeongsang Province (up 4.5%, m-o-m), Busan (up 2.8%, m-o-m) and Daejeon (up 2.5%, m-o-m). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities climbed 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent each, surpassing the national average.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
2010
Annual Annual
Annual Annual Mar
Oct
2011 Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar Mar 71 Mar 141 Mar 211 Mar 281
Nationwide
2.1
2.3
1.6
2.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
1.1
1.3
0.37
0.33
0.36 0.32
Seoul
3.6
3.2
2.6
-2.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.03
0.02
0.01 0.00
0.5
-1.9
3.9
-1.8
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.04
0.02
0.00 0.00
8.3
9.4
0.9
-2.7
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.02
0.02
0.02 0.00
Seoul metropolitan area
4.0
2.9
0.7
-2.9
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.08
0.06
0.04 0.03
5 metropolitan cities
-0.6
1.0
2.8
8.7
0.7
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
2.0
2.3
0.61
0.61
0.66 0.62
Gangnam
2
Gangbuk3
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental prices in March were up 2.3 percent from the previous month. The increase rate was slightly higher than the previous month’s 2.0 percent. Growth continued in Seoul (up 1.8%, m-o-m), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 2.4%, m-o-m) and Gyeonggi Province (up 3.1%, m-o-m). Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.6), Seocho (0.7), Songpa (1.3), Seongbuk (4.1)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
2010
Annual Annual
Annual Annual Mar
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar Mar 71 Mar 141 Mar 211 Mar 281
2011
Nationwide
1.9
0.8
4.5
8.8
0.8
1.0
1.4
1.0
1.1
2.0
2.3
0.63
0.56 0.53
0.44
Seoul
2.2
-1.8
8.1
7.4
0.7
1.2
1.1
0.8
1.1
2.1
1.8
0.46
0.38 0.29
0.13
0.5
-3.6
10.4
8.8
0.5
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.9
1.4
0.37
0.23 0.25
0.10
Gangbuk3
Gangnam
4.6
0.5
5.4
5.6
0.9
1.1
0.8
0.5
1.0
2.4
2.3
0.57
0.57 0.34
0.16
Seoul metropolitan area
2.1
-0.4
5.6
7.2
0.7
1.1
1.3
0.7
1.0
2.1
2.4
0.63
0.58 0.46
0.32
5 metropolitan cities
1.1
1.6
3.9
12.0
1.0
0.9
1.5
1.4
1.3
2.1
2.2
0.58
0.53 0.59
0.58
2
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in February decreased 2.83 percent from the previous month’s 79,724 to 77,471. From a year earlier, the transactions were up 16.5 percent.
Apartment sales transactions 2007
(Monthly average, thousand)
2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Sep Nationwide
84
74
77
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
36
April 2011
90
2010
Oct
Nov
87
82
2011
Dec Annual May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 82
71
62
65
62
57
57
73
86
106
80
77
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in February rose for the fourth consecutive month (up 0.09%), but were still 2.03 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices were 0.23 percent lower compared with the previous year, with the increase pace shown to be decelerating evenly nationwide. Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.10%), Seoul (up 0.12%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.08%) and Incheon (up 0.06%) were all almost on par with prices of the previous month. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.01 (Nov 2010)
0.12 (Dec)
0.10 (Jan 2011)
0.10 (Feb)
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.07 percent month-onmonth in February, continuing the upward trend from October 2010. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.06 (Nov 2010)
0.10 (Dec)
0.07 (Jan 2011)
0.07 (Feb)
Land prices by region 2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
2009
Annual Annual Nationwide
3.88
-0.31
2010
2011
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
-4.09
0.96
-1.20
0.35
0.88
0.94
1.05
0.70
0.29
-0.05
0.11
0.09
0.09
Seoul
5.88
-1.00
-6.34
1.40
-1.38
0.68
1.30
0.81
0.53
0.72
0.02
-0.25
0.39
0.12
0.12
Gyeonggi
4.22
-0.26
-4.29
1.22
-1.62
0.37
1.13
1.36
1.49
0.96
0.53
-0.08
0.07
0.08
0.08
Incheon
4.86
1.37
-3.57
1.99
-1.39
0.53
1.16
1.70
1.43
1.08
0.43
-0.10
0.02
0.06
0.06
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in February recorded 176,000 land lots, down 7.6 percent from the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, however, the transactions were up 5.1 percent. Land transactions were 2.6% less than the five-year February average of 181,000 land lots. Month-on-month land transactions decreased slightly in areas such as Seoul (down 5.8%, m-o-m), Busan (down 9.7%, m-o-m), Gwangju (down 4.6%, m-o-m), and Ulsan (down 12.4%, m-o-m).
Land sales transactions
(Land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
Nationwide Seoul
2009
2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
Feb
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
208
208
203
226
212
207
241
187
168
163
145
181
208
257
191
176
33
26
22
28
25
19
21
16
17
12
11
14
18
24
18
17
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
56
52
48
58
41
34
36
32
40
45
58
46
38
Incheon
13
13
10
13
14
11
12
8
7
7
7
8
9
11
8
9
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
38
April 2011
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell for the first time in three months in February (down 0.2p, m-o-m). Among the components of the coincident composite index, the mining & manufacturing production index, manufacturing operation ratio index, domestic shipment index and number of non-farm payroll employment rose, while the rest decreased from the previous month. Components of coincident composite index in February (m-o-m) Mining & manufacturing production index (1.7%), manufacturing operation ratio index (0.8%), domestic shipment index (0.5%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.3%), value of construction completion (-3.0%), volume of imports (-1.3%), wholesale & retail sales index (-0.5%) service activity index (-0.1%)
The year-on-year leading composite index in February fell 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among the components of the leading composite index, five components, including the value of machinery orders received and indicator of inventory cycle, rose while others such as the consumer expectations index and liquidity in the financial institutions fell month-on-month. Components of the leading composite index in February (m-o-m) Value of machinery orders received (2.6%), indicator of inventory cycle (2.1%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (1.2%p), composite stock price index (0.9%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.1%p), consumer expectations index (-4.0), value of capital goods imports (-2.6%), value of construction orders received (-1.0%), net terms of trade index (-1.0%), liquidity in the financial institutions (-0.8%)
2010
2011 1
Feb1
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.8
1.4
0.3
101.1
100.4
99.6
99.5
99.8
100.8
100.6
-0.3
-0.7
-0.8
-0.1
0.3
1.0
-0.2
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.2
0.5
0.6
-0.2
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
5.4
4.5
3.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.4
-0.8
-0.9
-1.2
-0.5
0.1
0.1
-0.6
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
(m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
40
April 2011
Jan
1
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues New Measures to Boost Home Transactions
The Korean government unveiled new measures to boost home transactions on March 22. As part of the measures, the government will lower the real estate acquisition tax rate by half and seek to remove a cap on the price of newly built houses. Meanwhile, restrictions on debt-to-income (DTI) ratio were reintroduced as scheduled at the beginning of April.
Original measures The Korean government announced on August 29, 2010 a temporary relaxation of DTI ratio regulations for mortgage loans in order to stimulate the depressed housing market. The temporary easing of the DTI ratio limit was applicable to those who do not own houses, and when they buy houses worth less than 900 million won in a non-speculative area, along with mortgage facilities of up to 200 million won available to first time home buyers. In addition, people who have multiple houses would have been able to avoid the heavy transfer tax for another two years from the end of 2010, and have benefited from the property acquisition tax reduction for another year from the same date. The August 29 measures have helped increase home transactions, although accompanied by rising household debt. To curb increasing household debt and keep boosting home transactions, the government announced another round of home transaction stimulus measures on March 22, 2011. Apartment transaction volume in the Seoul metropolitan area (thousand) 9.0 (Sep 2010)
12.4 (Oct)
17.5 (Nov)
20.2 (Dec)
16.0 (Jan 2011)
19.9 (Feb)
Mortgage lending (trillion won) 2.6 (average between Jan and Aug 2010) 2.8 (Feb)
42
April 2011
3.3 (Sep)
3.5 (Oct)
4.4 (Nov)
5.3 (Dec)
1.8 (Jan 2011)
New measures 1) Reinstatement of the DTI rule The Korean government decided to end the temporary easing of the DTI ratio as scheduled at the end of March and the previously-imposed limit has been reinstated starting April. The DTI ratio is 40 percent for speculative areas, 50 percent for non-speculative areas in Seoul, and 60 percent for Incheon and Gyeonggi Province. The March 22 DTI measure is designed to be complemented by preferential DTI ratios of up to 15 percentage points more, if a mortgage is conditioned without a grace period and with fixed-rate principal and interest installments. Credit ceilings of microloans to which the DTI regulation does not apply, is raised from 50 million won to 100 million won. Mortgage loan facilities for first time home buyers, scheduled to expire at the end of March, will be maintained by the end of 2011. The loan facilities are available to households in which all members do not own houses and whose household income is less than 40 million won a year, when they purchase houses worth less than 600 million won and smaller than 85m2 in a non-speculative area. Home buyers who fulfill these requirements will be able to use the loan facilities to the amount of up to 200 million won at the annual interest rate of 5.2 percent. 2) Lowered home acquisition tax The real estate acquisition tax is halved, and the new rate will be effective until the end of 2011. The acquisition tax on houses worth less than 900 million won is lowered from 2.0 percent to 1.0 percent, while houses worth more than 900 million won from 4.0 percent to 2.0 percent. In addition, individuals who own more than one house are subject to pay a lower tax rate from 4.0 percent to 2.0 percent. Meanwhile, the government decided to indemnify local governments against tax cut losses, and the actual indemnity plans will be discussed in a task force team meeting. 3) No more price ceiling on new homes To encourage private builders to supply more homes, the government is pursuing easing of price ceiling on new homes as soon as possible. The related bill is pending approval in the National Assembly.
Economic Bulletin
43
Economic News Briefing
Korean economy grows 6.2% in 2010 (Preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.2 percent in 2010 compared with the previous year due to increased facilities investment, robust exports of goods & services and rising private consumption. On the production side, manufacturing surged 14.8 percent while construction edged down by 0.1 percent. Services rose by 3.5 percent led by rapid growth of transport & storage services, wholesale & retail trade and health & social work. On the expenditure side, private consumption increased 4.1 percent as expenditures on durable goods showed a strong upward trend and those on non-durable goods and semidurable goods also turned to an increase. Exports of goods & services grew by 14.5 percent, with increased exports of semi-conductors, automobile and machinery. Imports of goods and services also rose by 16.9 percent. Real gross national income (GNI) in 2010 grew 5.5 percent and per capita GNI at current prices increased to US$20,759 from US$17,193 a year earlier. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Korea decided on April 12 to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 3.00 percent after having raised it by 25 basis points each in January and March.
44
April 2011
<GDP by production and expenditure*>
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009
2010 1
2010 1 (Original) 2
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
2010 1 (Seasonally adjusted) 3 Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
GDP
0.3
6.2
8.5
7.5
4.4
4.7
2.1
1.4
0.6
0.5
Agriculture, forestry and fishery
3.2
-4.3
0.9
-2.2
-7.3
-6.7
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
0.2
-1.5
14.8
22.2
17.8
9.8
11.1
4.2
4.0
2.3
0.1
Construction
1.8
-0.1
2.2
0.8
0.9
-3.2
1.4
-0.1
-1.2
-3.2
Services
Manufacturing
1.2
3.5
4.5
3.7
2.8
3.0
1.5
0.2
0.3
1.1
Private consumption
0.0
4.1
6.6
3.5
3.6
2.9
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
Government consumption
5.6
3.0
3.4
2.9
2.5
3.2
3.6
0.3
-0.1
-0.4
-9.8
25.0
29.1
30.5
26.6
15.9
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
4
Facility investment
3.4
-1.4
4.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.9
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
Goods exports5
-0.2
15.8
20.8
14.7
11.6
16.9
3.0
7.4
2.5
3.0
Goods imports
-7.8
18.2
21.6
20.4
16.0
15.5
4.8
7.1
3.6
-0.7
1.6
5.5
9.6
5.6
4.5
3.0
1.2
1.3
0.4
0.0
Construction investment
GNI
5
*At 2005 chained prices 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage changes from the same period of the previous year 3. Percentage change from the previous period 4. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included. 5. FOB basis
Korea revises its economic outlook for 2011 On April 13, the Bank of Korea kept its forecast of 4.5 percent growth for 2011 as originally projected in December 2010. GDP growth is predicted to register 4.8 percent next year. The central bank raised its consumer inflation projection for this year to 3.9 percent from a previous estimate of 3.5 percent, while revising the core inflation outlook slightly up from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent. For 2012, consumer price inflation is forecast at 3.4 percent and core inflation at 3.6 percent. Meanwhile, on April 11, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed that the world economic recovery has solidified but downside risks remain due to the differences in the recovery pace. The Washington-based agency projected that the world economy will grow by 4.4 percent and 4.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, respectively. In advanced economies, growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2011 and 2.6 percent in 2012 while that in emerging economies as a whole is expected to reach 6.5 percent in both 2011 and 2012. IMFâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth forecast for the Korean economy remained unchanged at 4.5 percent in 2011 and 4.2 percent in 2012.
Economic Bulletin
45
Inbound FDI in Q1 posts US$2,005 million Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Korea recorded US$2,005 million in the first quarter of 2011, up 30.1 percent from US$1,541 million a year earlier. Despite overseas risk factors such as political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and a devastating earthquake in Japan, Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s FDI maintained a strong growth. FDI from almost all regions except the Middle East and the EU increased. In contrast to a contraction last year, US direct investment soared 1,068 percent and investment by Japan increased 40.1 percent year-on-year. By industry, year-on-year FDI in the manufacturing and service sector increased 20.3 percent and 45.7 percent, respectively. FDI in the service sector spiked due to a surge in investments in business services and retail services.
(Notification basis, US$ million, %) 2009
1
2010
1
20111
Total
1,677
1,541
2,005
Changes2
-38.2
-8.2
30.1
1. First quarter of the year 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year
Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s year-end fiscal data for 2010 Korea had 261.2 trillion won of tax revenues in 2010, with the surplus rising to 7.8 trillion won and annual expenditures reaching 248.7 trillion won. The revenues were 0.1 trillion won less than those of 2009 but 5.8 trillion won more than the planned amount of 255.4 trillion won. Korea had a fiscal deficit of 13.0 trillion won, down 1.1% compared to GDP, but a consolidated surplus of 1.4% compared to GDP. Meanwhile, the national debt hit 373.8 trillion won, or 31.9% of GDP, posting an increase of 27.7 trillion won from the previous year and a decrease of 20.8 trillion won from the 2010 budget. The national debt including the net debts of local governments is estimated to reach 392.8 trillion won, or 33.5% of GDP, a 33.2 trillion won rise from the previous year. As of the end of 2010, the government had 185.6 trillion won worth of credit, an increase of 6.2%, or 10.9 trillion won, compared to 2009. National assets recorded 315.1 trillion won, a rise of 18.3 trillion won, or 6.2 percent from 2009, with the value of state-held securities climbing by 10.8 trillion won and that of the government land shrinking by 0.4 trillion won.
46
April 2011
Korea’s financial regulator tightens rules for savings banks On March 17, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) unveiled measures to tighten supervision on savings banks. Acknowledging that many savings banks have been vulnerable to improper practices of their largest shareholders, the FSC plans to toughen controls on the major shareholders and hold them more accountable for the banks’ business operations. For example, when the biggest shareholder has allegedly committed an illegal act, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) will be able to launch an investigation, and if found guilty of improper conduct, both the shareholder and the savings bank will be held subject to fines. Savings banks whose capital adequacy ratio is above 8 percent and non-performing ratio is below 8 percent have been exempted from the lending cap applied to the rest of the savings bank industry, which is 8 billion won per borrower. This preferential treatment, however, has caused problems by allowing certain savings banks to engage in disproportionate investment in high-risk assets and excessive business expansion. In order to boost the financial health of savings banks, the FSC has decided to end this preferential treatment while raising the lending cap from 8 billion won per borrower to 10 billion won. In response to claims that investors suffer from lack of transparency in accounting and contracts made based on incomplete information, the FSC will strengthen market disciplines and limit the issuance of subordinated bonds. Finally, the FCS plans to tighten surveillance over savings banks in risk of insolvency. The FSC will work closely with related government agencies to seek civil and criminal charges against savings banks’ major shareholders and management if they were to be found responsible for any business failure and misconduct.
National Assembly passes Macro-prudential Stability Law On April 5, Korea’s National Assembly passed the Partial Amendment Law to the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act. Previously, the Korean government proposed the Macro-prudential Stability measures on December 19, 2010 in an effort to deal with a surge of capital inflows and Korea’s exposure to global financial market turbulence. The amendment shall come into force from August 1, 2011. Non-deposit foreign currency liabilities at all commercial banks and state-run banks such as Korea Development Bank, Export-Import Bank of Korea, Industrial Bank of Korea, National Agricultural Cooperative Federation, National Federation of Fisheries Cooperative and Korea Finance Cooperation are subject to the measures. Those banks will be charged 20 basis points on their foreign liabilities that mature in less than a year, 10 basis points for 1-3 year liabilities, 5 basis points for 3-5 year liabilities, and 2 basis points for more than 5 year liabilities.
Economic Bulletin
47
Korea’s self-sufficiency in key minerals rises to 27 percent Korea’s self-sufficiency rate in key mineral resources rose in 2010 from a year earlier on greater output from overseas mines owned by local companies, said the Ministry of Knowledge Economy. According to the ministry, the rate for the six key minerals came to 27 percent of demand last year, up from 25.1 percent a year earlier. In addition, the selfsufficiency rate for rare earth elements reached 8.5 percent of demand in 2010, higher than the 5.5 percent target for the year. Local companies invested a record US$2.64 billion in overseas resources development projects last year, up 157 percent from US$1.02 billion a year earlier. In terms of investment return, local companies retrieved US$553 million through the sales of minerals produced, up 39 percent from US$397 million in 2009. Meanwhile, Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) signed a US$1.55 billion deal with Anadarko Petroleum Corporation to secure 23.67 percent of the stake in the Maverick Basin assets in Texas. The shale oil assets in Texas hold the equivalent of 491 million barrels of oil and are producing 28,000 barrels a day. In a separate deal, Korea acquired 95 percent of Altius Holdings, which owns four oil blocks in Kazakhstan with reserves totaling 56.9 million barrels. The two acquisitions may boost KNOC’s output by 16,500 barrels a day.
Korea plans KSP joint consultation with multilateral development banks The Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced on March 29 that it has agreed to conduct joint consultations with five multilateral development banks (MDBs) as part of its Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP). The joint consulting with the MDBs - the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and African Development Bank (AfDB) - expands the existing bilateral KSP to include a third party. The joint consultation system will help boost the effectiveness of KSP projects by combining the MDBs’ specialization in their respective regions with Korea’s unique experience in economic development. The KSP, which was established in 2004 to share Korea’s economic development experience with the developing countries, has conducted about 200 consulting projects in 22 countries. Meanwhile, Korea spent US$ 1.17 billion on official development assistance (ODA) in 2010, up 25.7 percent from the previous year. This is the second highest increase rate among DAC member countries after Portugal, which posted a 31.5 percent increase last year.
48
April 2011
Korea to host Inter-American Development Bank annual meeting in 2015 Korea has been selected to host the 56th annual meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in 2015, an opportunity that the government expects will boost economic cooperation between Korea and Latin America. The Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced on March 29 that the decision was made unanimously at the 52nd round of the IDB annual meeting that ended on March 28 in Canada. The IDB was established in 1959 to promote economic and social development in Latin America, and Korea has been a member of the bank since March 2005.
Economic Bulletin
49
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 3.2 -4.3
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.8 -1.5 14.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.2 3.9
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -1.0 7.0
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 3.4 -1.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.8 25.0
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009
I II III IV
-4.2 -2.1 1.0 6.3
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-13.6 -7.1 1.8 13.1
-2.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
-7.5 -3.0 -1.0 6.2
1.6 4.3 3.2 4.0
-21.9 -18.1 -9.4 12.2
2010P
I II III IV
8.5 7.5 4.4 4.7
0.9 -2.2 -7.3 -6.7
22.2 17.8 9.8 11.1
5.9 3.4 3.4 3.0
12.5 6.8 6.8 3.4
4.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.9
29.1 30.5 26.6 15.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
April 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2008 2009 2010
Production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.8 119.7 139.1
3.4 -0.1 16.2
118.3 116.7 133.5
2.6 -1.4 14.4
125.5 115.5 135.6
7.1 -7.8 17.4
116.2 118.3 122.9
3.6 1.8 3.9
2008
I II III IV
121.9 125.5 119.6 112.4
11.2 9.2 5.9 -11.0
119.8 123.0 118.0 112.4
9.3 6.8 5.5 -9.9
123.6 133.2 132.0 125.5
8.4 16.3 17.1 7.1
114.1 116.7 116.1 117.8
6.8 4.8 3.6 -0.4
2009
I II III IV
103.5 118.7 125.3 131.2
-15.1 -5.4 4.9 16.8
102.6 116.6 120.7 126.9
-14.4 -5.2 2.3 12.9
115.9 110.4 113.0 115.5
-6.2 -17.0 -14.3 -7.8
112.9 118.0 118.9 123.4
-1.1 1.1 2.4 4.8
2010
I II III IV
129.8 141.0 139.0 146.6
25.4 18.8 10.9 11.7
124.0 135.1 132.7 142.0
20.9 15.9 9.9 11.9
124.6 127.7 134.6 135.6
7.5 17.5 19.1 17.4
119.9 122.9 121.6 127.3
6.2 4.2 2.3 3.1
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.3 111.1 128.3 126.5 126.5 123.5 123.4 116.2 119.1 126.7 110.3 100.0
12.0 10.9 10.9 11.2 9.2 7.3 8.9 2.2 6.7 -1.5 -13.6 -18.4
121.9 109.9 127.6 124.8 123.7 120.5 121.6 114.7 117.6 124.2 109.8 103.2
10.5 8.1 9.2 8.9 6.6 4.9 8.0 2.0 6.3 -1.7 -12.9 -15.1
123.9 124.3 123.6 124.6 128.7 133.1 132.4 132.1 132.0 134.7 133.2 125.5
4.5 7.5 8.4 11.4 12.7 16.2 14.5 14.3 17.1 17.1 15.9 7.1
113.9 109.9 118.4 116.1 117.8 116.2 116.5 115.2 116.5 116.6 114.4 122.2
8.0 6.3 6.1 6.2 5.1 3.0 4.6 2.2 3.7 1.0 -0.9 -1.3
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
94.4 100.7 115.3 117.2 116.1 122.7 124.6 117.8 133.4 128.1 130.7 134.8
-25.3 -9.4 -10.1 -7.4 -8.2 -0.6 1.0 1.4 12.1 1.2 18.5 34.8
93.7 100.3 113.8 115.6 113.8 120.5 120.1 113.6 128.3 124.0 126.6 130.1
-23.1 -8.7 -10.7 -7.4 -7.9 0.0 -1.2 -1.0 9.1 -0.2 15.3 26.2
123.9 117.7 115.9 112.3 111.5 110.4 111.5 112.0 113.0 112.4 113.6 115.5
0.1 -5.2 -6.2 -9.8 -13.3 -17.0 -15.7 -15.1 -14.3 -16.4 -14.6 -7.8
112.1 109.9 116.7 117.1 117.6 119.2 117.9 117.0 121.8 119.3 119.3 131.6
-1.6 0.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.2 2.6 1.2 1.6 4.5 2.3 4.2 7.7
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
129.3 119.1 141.1 140.0 140.0 142.9 143.1 136.5 137.3 145.3 145.3 149.2
37.0 18.3 22.4 19.5 20.6 16.5 14.8 15.9 2.9 13.4 11.2 10.7
123.1 113.6 135.2 134.7 133.4 137.3 135.7 131.0 131.4 140.8 141.4 143.9
31.4 13.3 18.8 16.5 17.2 13.9 13.0 15.3 2.4 13.5 11.7 10.6
119.8 123.3 124.6 126.3 129.9 129.7 134.1 134.5 134.6 133.5 132.8 135.6
-3.3 4.8 7.5 12.5 16.5 17.5 20.3 20.1 19.1 18.8 16.9 17.4
118.5 116.7 124.4 121.5 123.3 124.0 122.4 120.9 121.6 123.2 123.8 134.9
5.7 6.2 6.6 3.8 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 -0.2 3.3 3.8 2.5
146.6 129.9
13.4 9.1
141.1 125.3
14.6 10.3
135.3 136.9
12.9 11.0
124.0 116.9
4.6 0.2
2011
1P 2P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
April 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
115.3 119.3 127.9
5.1 3.5 7.2
97.2 93.8 102.1
-3.2 -3.5 8.8
77.6 74.4 81.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2008 2009 2010 2008
I II III IV
113.8 115.1 116.0 116.4
5.9 6.3 5.3 3.4
99.3 103.1 95.5 91.1
2.2 0.5 -0.7 -13.6
82.0 80.8 77.9 69.7
2009
I II III IV
117.0 118.0 120.1 122.2
2.8 2.5 3.5 5.0
81.7 95.3 97.8 100.3
-17.7 -7.6 2.4 10.1
67.0 74.3 77.8 78.4
2010
I II III IV
124.3 126.5 129.5 131.3
6.2 7.2 7.8 7.4
97.4 105.6 99.6 105.6
19.2 10.8 1.8 5.3
80.4 82.3 81.2 80.8
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.8 113.8 113.9 114.3 115.4 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.7
6.2 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.7 6.2 5.5 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.4 3.3
103.2 89.5 105.1 104.7 103.3 101.2 99.8 92.2 94.5 104.1 89.4 79.7
3.4 1.5 1.4 3.2 -0.6 -1.3 1.5 -4.6 0.7 -4.8 -16.8 -20.1
83.0 81.3 81.7 82.0 80.2 80.1 78.5 77.7 77.6 77.6 69.3 62.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.9 116.9 117.1 117.7 117.7 118.5 119.3 119.8 121.1 121.6 121.9 123.1
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.5
73.7 79.8 91.6 94.1 93.3 98.4 98.8 91.0 103.6 99.1 100.5 101.2
-28.6 -10.8 -12.8 -10.1 -9.7 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 9.6 -4.8 12.4 27.0
63.7 67.3 70.0 72.5 73.7 76.6 77.7 76.4 79.3 77.8 78.0 79.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.6 123.9 125.3 125.5 126.5 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.1 132.1
5.7 6.0 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.3
97.1 88.4 106.7 106.1 103.8 107.0 105.3 96.2 97.2 106.6 105.4 104.9
31.8 10.8 16.5 12.8 11.3 8.7 6.6 5.7 -6.2 7.6 4.9 3.6
79.3 80.5 81.5 81.7 82.1 83.1 82.7 79.7 81.2 79.7 80.5 82.2
2011 1P 2P
132.1 132.4
7.0 6.9
102.5 89.8
5.6 1.6
84.7 82.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2008 2009 2010
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
110.6 113.6 121.1
1.1 2.7 6.6
126.4 136.8 157.2
1.6 8.2 14.9
104.9 106.3 113.5
-3.0 1.3 6.8
110.0 111.3 113.7
1.4 1.2 2.2
2008
I Il III IV
111.5 111.7 108.8 110.4
4.5 2.9 1.4 -4.2
129.9 134.1 125.8 115.7
8.7 8.0 -0.1 -9.6
103.6 107.2 94.0 115.0
4.0 -2.7 0.3 -10.7
109.2 108.8 112.3 109.5
2.3 1.3 1.5 0.2
2009
I II III IV
106.5 113.4 111.9 122.4
-4.5 1.5 2.8 10.9
114.7 142.0 135.5 155.1
-11.7 5.9 7.7 34.1
103.1 107.7 94.3 120.2
-0.5 0.5 0.3 4.5
107.7 109.2 114.3 113.9
-1.4 0.4 1.8 4.0
2010
I II III IV
116.8 118.9 120.3 128.6
9.7 4.9 7.5 5.1
148.7 149.9 158.5 171.6
29.6 5.6 17.0 10.6
105.7 114.4 100.5 133.6
2.5 6.2 6.6 11.1
111.1 112.8 117.7 113.1
3.2 3.3 3.0 -0.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.7 107.3 115.4 113.4 115.1 106.5 109.6 106.2 110.7 109.7 108.9 112.7
5.4 3.5 4.6 6.3 3.3 -0.7 4.2 2.2 -1.8 -3.3 -4.6 -4.8
128.3 117.8 143.6 139.1 136.0 127.1 140.7 121.5 115.2 123.9 108.9 114.4
8.1 6.1 11.4 15.6 7.9 0.6 7.9 -4.7 -3.8 -0.5 -15.3 -12.5
104.4 97.8 108.5 108.5 112.1 100.9 97.6 86.2 98.1 111.6 120.3 113.1
6.7 7.2 -1.3 -2.8 -3.7 -1.8 3.5 8.8 -8.9 -10.1 -7.7 -14.3
108.8 108.4 110.5 109.5 112.3 104.5 106.1 112.0 118.8 106.6 107.7 114.3
4.3 0.6 2.2 4.5 2.0 -2.7 1.0 2.0 1.6 -2.2 1.2 1.5
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 101.2 109.7 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.8 106.7 118.2 120.6 119.6 127.1
-2.9 -5.7 -4.9 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.1 0.5 6.8 9.9 9.8 12.8
104.1 116.0 124.0 123.9 144.0 158.0 138.2 122.5 145.9 144.8 153.5 167.1
-18.9 -1.5 -13.6 -10.9 5.9 24.3 -1.8 0.8 26.6 16.9 41.0 46.1
103.6 97.1 108.5 109.3 113.3 100.4 95.4 86.5 101.1 116.1 121.8 122.6
-0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.3 3.1 4.0 1.2 8.4
114.8 99.2 109.2 106.8 113.1 107.6 110.8 112.9 119.3 116.6 109.2 116.0
5.5 -8.5 -1.2 -2.5 0.7 3.0 4.4 0.8 0.4 9.4 1.4 1.5
2010
115.8 114.2 120.3 116.5 121.2 118.9 120.7 116.7 123.5 125.5 127.8 132.6
6.7 12.8 9.7 7.3 3.6 3.8 8.9 9.4 4.5 4.1 6.9 4.3
145.5 141.3 159.2 144.6 147.0 158.1 164.0 154.4 157.0 165.2 172.1 177.4
39.8 21.8 28.4 16.7 2.1 0.1 18.7 26.0 7.6 14.1 12.1 6.2
108.4 99.6 109.1 113.1 120.7 109.3 103.5 90.2 107.7 130.0 133.4 137.3
4.6 2.6 0.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 8.5 4.3 6.5 12.0 9.5 12.0
108.7 112.1 112.6 110.4 116.0 112.1 115.1 116.4 121.6 111.1 111.9 116.2
-5.3 13.0 3.1 3.4 2.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.9 -4.7 2.5 0.2
128.1 113.3
10.6 -0.8
165.9 154.0
14.0 9.0
120.4 101.9
11.1 2.3
118.8 104.4
9.3 -6.9
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1P 2P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
April 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2008 2009 2010
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
114.8 116.4 122.0
1.6 1.4 4.8
126.8 135.1 139.6
1.8 6.5 3.3
109.9 108.9 115.0
1.4 -0.9 5.6
-
2008
I II III IV
117.5 115.7 113.8 111.9
5.8 4.2 2.2 -5.7
133.3 136.5 123.0 114.4
11.3 11.4 0.1 -13.9
111.1 107.4 110.1 111.0
3.3 0.9 3.2 -1.8
-
2009
I II III IV
107.7 114.8 119.9 123.3
-8.3 -0.8 5.4 10.2
113.4 139.9 139.4 147.8
-14.9 2.5 13.3 29.2
105.3 104.7 112.0 113.4
-5.2 -2.5 1.7 2.2
-
2010
I II III IV
118.5 119.9 122.0 127.6
10.0 4.4 1.8 3.5
136.7 139.5 139.2 142.9
20.5 -0.3 -0.1 -3.3
111.2 112.1 115.1 121.6
5.6 7.1 2.8 7.2
-
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
125.4 106.5 120.6 119.8 115.7 111.7 117.8 111.7 112.0 119.7 107.0 109.1
9.1 2.1 5.7 7.3 2.4 2.9 7.4 -1.1 0.6 -1.6 -9.3 -6.3
132.6 123.1 144.2 144.2 136.9 128.5 134.3 118.6 116.1 127.7 111.0 104.4
12.4 8.3 12.8 20.3 9.3 5.0 8.0 -5.1 -2.8 -6.4 -15.8 -19.8
122.5 99.8 111.1 110.1 107.2 105.0 111.1 108.9 110.3 116.6 105.4 111.0
7.8 -0.7 2.3 1.7 -0.7 2.0 6.9 0.7 2.1 0.8 -6.2 0.1
84 96 96 88 84 81
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.6 103.8 111.7 112.6 113.5 118.4 119.0 110.9 129.7 121.7 118.5 129.6
-14.2 -2.5 -7.4 -6.0 -1.9 6.0 1.0 -0.7 15.8 1.7 10.7 18.8
99.0 115.5 125.7 120.6 140.7 158.4 146.3 125.8 146.1 139.5 146.7 157.1
-25.3 -6.2 -12.8 -16.4 2.8 23.3 8.9 6.1 25.8 9.2 32.2 50.5
111.0 99.0 106.0 109.3 102.6 102.3 108.0 104.9 123.1 114.5 107.2 118.6
-9.4 -0.8 -4.6 -0.7 -4.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 11.6 -1.8 1.7 6.8
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.7 110.3 121.6 120.5 117.5 121.8 121.9 120.5 123.6 129.3 128.3 125.3
15.0 6.3 8.9 7.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 8.7 -4.7 6.2 8.3 -3.3
136.0 129.7 144.5 135.4 135.3 147.7 145.6 133.9 138.0 145.7 144.7 138.4
37.4 12.3 15.0 12.3 -3.8 -6.8 -0.5 6.4 -5.5 4.4 -1.4 -11.9
118.8 102.6 112.3 114.6 110.4 111.4 112.4 115.2 117.8 122.8 121.8 120.1
7.0 3.6 5.9 4.8 7.6 8.9 4.1 9.8 -4.3 7.2 13.6 1.3
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 110 109
2011 1 2 3
129.7 106.3 -
4.9 -3.6 -
132.9 125.8 -
-2.3 -3.0 -
128.4 98.5 -
8.1 -4.0 -
108 105 98
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
23,360
2,330
21,030
12,279
133.2
135.0
I ll III IV
5,544 6,247 5,662 5,908
525 402 380 1,023
5,019 5,845 5,282 4,885
2,910 3,564 3,026 2,779
120.5 137.5 139.1 135.6
116.7 144.2 136.2 142.8
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,767 1,641 2,135 1,843 2,189 2,214 2,092 1,710 1,860 1,719 1,770 2,418
169 107 249 127 115 160 105 106 169 101 102 820
1,598 1,534 1,886 1,716 2,074 2,055 1,987 1,604 1,691 1,618 1,668 1,599
1,008 880 1,022 1,054 1,329 1,180 1,068 897 1,061 964 981 834
103.7 112.8 145.1 132.9 132.4 147.2 139.1 140.8 137.5 130.8 134.7 141.2
108.3 102.7 139.1 139.4 140.9 152.2 138.6 132.8 137.1 134.8 136.7 156.9
2011 1P 2P
2,115 2,079
116 129
2,000 1,950
1,156 1,149
125.7 114.6
127.7 123.9
2010P 2010
Manufacturing
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010P
11.2
-37.9
21.8
32.3
25.1
22.5
I ll III IV
10.3 24.7 -0.2 11.3
-43.7 -42.2 -71.7 31.4
22.6 35.5 22.0 7.8
45.6 58.5 27.4 4.5
30.0 29.5 29.3 13.6
18.1 25.7 27.4 18.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11.8 -2.0 20.6 27.2 56.3 2.6 -16.5 26.6 2.3 9.9 -9.2 34.9
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 19.6 -68.6 -90.2 48.9 -15.5 20.8 -76.5 213.9
18.5 32.8 18.7 26.4 59.1 24.4 38.7 25.3 4.5 9.3 10.0 4.3
39.4 66.8 36.7 57.1 101.1 28.8 41.8 37.1 9.6 13.2 4.2 -3.7
26.3 23.7 38.3 32.5 28.4 27.7 31.5 41.2 17.1 21.6 13.1 7.4
27.6 5.2 22.1 24 32.1 21.8 28.1 36.9 18.8 25 19.5 12.4
19.7 26.7
-31.5 20.9
25.1 27.1
14.6 30.6
22.2 1.6
17.9 20.6
2010
2011
1P 2P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
April 2011
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
35,163
52,777
88,675
29,013
54,628
Public
92,238
2010P
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completion (total)
2010
I ll llI lV
20,329 24,082 22,005 25,823
7,467 9,129 7,784 10,784
11,977 13,931 13,160 13,708
18,110 25,295 19,095 26,175
7,955 6,890 6,814 7,355
9,087 16,737 11,406 17,399
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,496 6,145 7,687 7,354 7,741 8,986 7,453 7,150 7,401 7,356 8,041 10,426
2,257 2,303 2,908 2,628 2,841 3,660 2,690 2,460 2,634 2,856 3,278 4,650
3,972 3,614 4,391 4,460 4,537 4,934 4,419 4,370 4,371 4,135 4,401 5,173
7,043 4,752 6,314 6,636 8,717 9,941 7,475 4,145 7,475 4,415 7,551 14,209
2,410 2,170 3,375 1,829 1,672 3,388 3,903 1,327 1,584 1,185 2,023 4,146
4,274 2,232 2,582 4,456 6,652 5,629 3,351 2,698 5,355 3,111 5,217 9,071
6,157 5,333
2,415 2,087
3,476 3,019
4,658 4,959
1,295 1,396
2,697 2,445
2011
1P 2P
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010P
2.7
8.5
0.5
-18.7
-43.7
2.8
2010
I ll llI lV
6.3 2.0 -0.4 3.3
13.8 5.5 -1.1 15.9
3.8 2.6 1.0 -4.8
-1.6 -6.7 -3.6 -40.2
-14.9 -61.9 -22.0 -52.1
8.0 105.4 13.2 34.4
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7.2 0.8 10.5 -1.0 7.3 0.2 6.7 6.5 -11.8 0.9 -0.5 8.2
5.1 12.9 22.2 -0.1 9.6 6.7 14.0 1.4 -14.6 10.5 17.1 18.6
9.6 -3.5 5.3 1.0 7.8 -0.3 3.9 11.2 -9.8 -4.8 -9.4 -0.5
20.2 -4.6 -16.5 -14.1 17.4 -16.9 25.6 -12.5 -18.1 -58.8 -48.7 -22.5
-11.5 -22.2 -11.9 -68.7 -62.9 -56.0 23.5 -26.2 -58.0 -75.0 -61.4 -22.8
49.2 8.0 -25.8 178.8 138.3 49.8 38.3 -5.0 11.4 -45.7 -41.2 -23.9
-5.2 -13.2
7.0 -9.4
-12.5 -16.5
-33.9 -16.7
-46.3 -35.7
-36.9 9.5
2011
1P 2P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.0 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.7
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.4
110.9 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.3
101.4 101.4 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.4 102.2 102.5 102.7 103.2
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.1 114.9 114.8 114.2 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.5 111.3 110.5
6.5 5.1 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -3.1 -3.9
119.3 119.6 119.9 119.9 120.0 119.8 119.8 120.0 120.3 120.3 118.8 116.1
103.7 103.5 103.4 102.9 102.6 102.0 101.5 101.3 101.1 100.6 99.0 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.9 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 126.4 127.2
-3.6 -2.4 -1.3 0.5 2.6 5.4 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.7 12.0
114.1 114.1 115.3 117.1 118.1 120.4 121.7 122.7 123.5 124.4 125.2 125.8
94.3 93.9 94.5 95.5 96.0 97.4 98.0 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.2 99.2
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.5 127.0 127.1 126.9 127.3 127.7 128.4 128.8 128.8 128.4 128.7 129.3
11.6 10.4 9.6 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9
126.6 127.8 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.4 132.4 132.6 132.2 131.8 132.1 133.1
99.5 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.8
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1 2 3 4
130.1 129.9 -
3.0 2.4 -
135.0 134.4 -
100.8 100.6 -
99.1 92.2 107.8 -
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
April 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2008 2009 2010P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
3,197.5 32,790.5 28,213.6
5,170.1 37,866.0 41,904.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
434,651.5 358,189.7 464,286.9
429,481.4 320,323.7 422,383.1
-5,734.1 -6,640.5 -11,229.4
4,435.4 2,276.7 768.4
-673.9 -711.7 -3.229.4
2008
I II III IV
86.3 595.6 -3,981.0 6,496.6
1,365.8 4,095.7 -1,208.3 916.9
106,227.0 117,184.4 119,540.5 91,699.6
104,861.2 113,088.7 120,748.8 90,782.7
-2,358.8 -1,656.7 -3,145.3 1,426.7
1,613.1 -887.1 1,137.3 2,572.1
-533.8 -956.3 -764.7 1,580.9
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III IV
263.3 8,857.9 9,931.1 9,161.3
4,785.4 12,240.4 12,542.3 12,335.9
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,257.3 127,090.1
96,569.1 105,344.7 105,715.1 114,754.2
-4,201.1 -1,873.1 -2,954.6 -2,200.6
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.1 -67.6
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7 -906.4
2008
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
19.2 -1,230.5 1,297.6 -1,205.1 1,002.8 797.9 -192.6 -3,587.6 -200.8 4,984.2 1,453.1 59.3
588.5 30.8 746.5 1,018.4 1,234.9 1,842.4 1,900.0 -2,467.7 -640.6 1,327.3 -388.9 -21.5
36,167.2 32,263.4 37,796.4 38,594.7 39,428.7 39,161.0 43,842.5 37,121.5 38,576.5 37,504.4 28,046.2 26,149.0
35,578.7 32,232.6 37,049.9 37,576.3 38,193.8 37,318.6 41,942.5 39,589.2 39,217.1 36,177.1 28,435.1 26,170.5
-996.1 -1,497.2 134.5 137.5 -391.7 -1,402.5 -1,769.1 -1,211.4 -164.8 1,416.8 716.2 -706.3
718.3 670.3 224.5 -2,036.2 441.5 707.6 228.0 305.4 603.9 1,468.6 635.4 468.1
-291.5 -434.4 192.1 -324.8 -281.9 -349.6 -551.5 -213.9 0.7 771.5 490.4 319.0
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,998.9 4,330.0 4,457.9 1,975.7 3,497.5 5,112.5 1,934.4 2,114.4
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,658.4 4,841.9 5,268.9 2,826.0 4,447.4 5,484.9 3,170.8 3,680.2
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,903.4 39,223.8 42,012.2 41,939.6 43,138.3
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,591.7 35,306.3 35,861.3 35,077.4 34,776.4 36,527.3 38,768.8 39,458.1
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 147.4 -751.6 -859.3 -902.5 -1,192.8 -749.9 -304.5 -1,146.2
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2 -34.5
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7 -385.1
2011P 1 2
154.7 1,178.3
1,557.9 1,583.0
42,662.8 37,228.3
41,104.9 35,645.3
-1,640.9 -569.1
703.7 542.6
-466.0 -378.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2008 2009 2010P
-1,154.0 -34,651.2 -25,331.5
-16,940.6 -14,948.0 -19,379.7
-2,405.6 49,727.7 38,552.4
-14,769.9 -3,093.0 -7.4
-23,593.2 2,038.9 -17,228.1
Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
109.3 289.6 -174.2
56,446.0 -68,666.4 -27,094.5
-2,043.5 1,860.7 -2,882.1
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
2008
I ll III IV
1,193.5 1,939.6 2,595.0 -6,882.1
-6,108.5 -4,467.0 -3,988.1 -2,377.0
-4,401.5 8,356.7 -9,421.3 3,060.5
-1,249.5 -1,240.7 -3,550.4 -8,729.3
9,213.4 -6,200.3 6,889.4 -33,495.7
-110.4 -226.8 -217.7 664.2
3,850.0 5,717.7 12,883.1 33,995.2
-1,279.8 -2,535.2 1,386.0 385.5
2009
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
2010P I II III IV
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6 -8,397.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4 -8,290.7
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1 7,262.3
746.6 -983.9 -388.6 618.5
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3 -5,443.2
-175.6 27.1 31.1 -56.8
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5 -2,487.7
-108.0 241.1 -2,251.5 -763.7
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
386.7 808.3 -1.5 1,442.8 670.4 -173.6 1,052.9 2,866.3 -1,324.2 -3,562.9 -1,557.3 -1,761.9
-3,111.7 -199.9 -2,796.9 -2,670.0 -792.4 -1,004.6 -1,574.4 -1,537.7 -876.0 -1,087.9 -724.2 -564.9
-949.8 -3,144.5 -307.2 4,093.1 9,168.1 -4,904.5 -7,025.3 -343.4 -2,052.6 5,004.0 -2,524.0 580.5
-130.4 -298.1 -821.0 -560.3 -627.6 -52.8 -551.2 -69.3 -2,929.9 -3,888.3 -1,347.1 -3,493.9
3,201.2 2,762.6 3,249.6 -1,744.6 -9,293.2 4,837.5 1,209.3 6,139.7 -459.6 -23,932.3 -8,079.7 -1,483.7
-58.7 -14.9 -36.8 -86.7 -49.1 -91.0 -176.9 -107.8 67.0 353.5 213.5 97.2
1,436.1 1,703.1 710.8 2,411.3 2,264.6 1,041.8 9,171.4 -1,215.2 4,926.9 19,988.1 10,904.2 3,102.9
-405.9 422.2 -1,296.1 -237.7 -1,673.2 -624.3 -860.3 721.3 1,525.0 -1,421.3 104.2 1,702.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -2,191.7 -336.2
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8 -1,610.0
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 2,227.2 -2,412.2
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9 511.2
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -1,494.4 1,268.0
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.6
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.0 -2,879.6 -2,658.6 -1,719.3 1,890.2
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,612.6 -200.7 -929.5 -554.0 -768.2 757.2 257.3 -1,778.2
2011P 1 2
-1,282.0 -2,261.4
-1,725.4 -1,635.1
904.6 -3,004.0
569.3 -363.3
1,773.3 4,861.7
-120.7 -32.7
-2,683.1 -2,088.0
1,127.3 1,083.1
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
April 2011
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2009 2010
112.8 116.1
113.6 118.8
112.2 114.3
112.5 114.5
110.9 115.1
111.9 117.0
109.2 106.4
137.7 145.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6 117.8 117.1 117.8
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8 122.1 120.4 121.9
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.0 114.9 115.0
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.6
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 109.6
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 156.1
2011 1 2 3
118.9 119.8 120.4
123.8 125.1 123.1
115.8 116.4 116.6
116.3 117.1 117.4
119.7 120.5 122.0
122.7 123.9 125.8
108.6 110.6 113.5
156.1 160.9 166.5
2009 2010
2.8 2.9
3.4 4.6
2.4 4.2
-0.2 3.8
-0.5 4.6
-0.2 -2.6
-4.1 5.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3 7.2 5.4 6.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 12.7
2011 1 2 3
4.1 4.5 4.7
7.1 7.8 7.9
2.2 2.5 2.5
2.6 3.1 3.3
6.2 6.6 7.3
7.7 8.2 9.1
4.9 5.6 9.1
14.1 16.9 19.6
Y-o-Y change (%) 3.6 1.8
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2009 2010
24,394 24,748
23,506 23,829
3,836 4,028
17,998 18,214
3.6 3.7
16,454 16,971
9,390 10,086
5,101 5,068
1,963 1,817
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847 24,538
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109 23,684
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139 4,156
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340 18,272
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300 17,154
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334 10,347
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069 4,999
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898 1,808
2011 1 2
24,114 24,431
23,196 23,336
4,148 4,149
18,007 3.8 18,019 4.5 Y-o-Y change (%)
16,832 16,856
10,305 10,390
4,848 4,781
1,680 1,684
2009 2010
0.2 1.5
-0.3 1.4
-3.2 5.0
0.5 1.2
-
1.5 3.1
4.3 7.4
0.4 -0.7
-7.4 -7.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.0
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.3
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.4
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -1.5
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7 -2.2
2011 1 2
0.1 1.6
1.4 2.1
5.7 6.7
1.2 1.4
-
3.3 3.5
6.1 6.2
-0.3 -1.2
-2.6 1.6
Source: Statistics Korea
64
April 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3
2.7 2.8 2.9
2.9 3.1 3.4
4.5 4.7 4.5
3.7 3.9 3.7
4.3 4.4 4.1
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2009 2010
61,739.6 67,585.1
357,344.1 399,412.3
1,508,550.4 1,639,675.1
1,937,336.0 2,096,534.8
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,071.5 1,897,923.7 1,913,084.5 1,925,418.1 1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8 71,472.9
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8 425,673.9
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9 1,682,871.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5 2,154,538.9
2011 1 2
73,540.8 75,432.1
429,368.1 432,482.8
1,676,448.8 1,674,390.5
2,152,814.0 2,148,254.1
2009 2010
18.1 9.5
Y-o-Y change (%) 16.3 11.8
10.3 8.7
7.9 8.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6 14.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8 12.9
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.2
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9
2011 1 2
13.0 13.3
12.6 11.5
6.5 5.0
6.6 5.2
Source: The Bank of Korea
66
April 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2009 2010
1,167.6 1,138.9
1,276.4 1,156.3
1,262.8 1,397.1
1,363.1 1,320.6
1,674.3 1,513.6
1,774.4 1,532.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
2011 1 2 3
1,114.3 1,127.9 1,107.2
1,120.1 1,118.1 1,122.5
1,356.6 1,380.7 1,331.9
1,356.3 1,351.0 1,376.2
1,514.0 1,549.5 1,563.5
1,495.4 1,524.6 1,572.6
-7.1 -2.5
15.8 -9.4
26.6 -3.1
-5.7 -9.6
10.4 -13.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
2011 1 2 3
-3.6 -2.6 -2.1
-1.6 -3.4 -1.3
5.4 6.3 9.4
8.7 5.4 9.6
-6.2 -1.3 3.0
-8.1 -3.8 1.8
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%) -9.4 10.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Bang, Moon-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho, Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Eli Horn (MOSF) Lee, Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr