Vol. 33 | No. 5
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. Global economy
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues The 2012 guidelines on budgeting
42
Economic News Briefing
46
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview The Korean economy stayed on an upward track, with employment and business sentiment steadily improving, and inflation slowing down, as cold waves eased and foot-and-month disease was brought under control. Mining and manufacturing production went up 1.4 percent month-on-month in March backed by rising demand from strong exports and with the number of working days returning to normal from the previous month when the Lunar New Year holiday fell and resulted in fewer working days. Service output gained 2.0 percent from the previous month, helped by boosted domestic demand amid increasing employment. In March retail sales rose 2.9 percent month-on-month, as the adverse effect of unusual cold spells and foot-and-month disease had been removed, and the positive effect of new car releases set in. Facilities investment increased 2.9 percent month-on-month in March, while the manufacturing operation ratio posted a solid performance of 82.5 percent. Construction investment improved for the first time in three months, rising 13.4 percent from the previous month. Three month moving average of the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.1 percentage point in March affected by the previous month’s poor performance. The leading composite index fell 0.8 percentage points year-on-year due to worsening consumer sentiment and net terms of trade. Although imports soared due to rising oil prices, a trade surplus in April expanded to US$5.8 billion from the previous month’s US$2.8 billion, as exports continued to be brisk despite the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake. Employment in March continued to improve, adding 469,000 jobs, as strong exports and eased foot-and-mouth disease contributed to job generation in agricultural, forestry & fishery industries as well as manufacturing and services sectors. Although high international commodities prices pushed up those of manufactured products, consumer prices rose at a slower rate of 4.2 percent than the previous month’s 4.7 percent, due to drops in fresh food prices. Core consumer prices, which exclude goods reflecting changes in supply situations with their high price volatility, narrowed an increase month-onmonth from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent. In April stock prices rose and foreign exchange rates fell, as the business performance of domestic companies brought about foreign capital inflows and the dollar depreciated. Both home prices and rental rates, led by the Seoul metropolitan area, posted a slower increase than the previous month in April, as wait-and-see attitude prevailed with the moving season nearing an end. To sum up, although the overall global economy has recovered, there are growing uncertainties such as political unrest in the Middle East, worries over Japan’s radiation leak, and the European fiscal crisis. The Korean government will closely watch any changes in economic situations and flexibly respond to them with microeconomic as well as macroeconomic measures, so that the Korean economy can be on its way to solid recovery with employment steadily improving and inflation stabilizing. On the other hand, the government will continue to pursue an economy strong enough to deal with external changes such as high oil prices on its own, while stepping up efforts to improve the real economy, to which lives of working classes are closely related. Economic Bulletin
3
1. Global economy The global economy, despite lingering uncertainties, has seen robust growth in developing countries such as China and gradual recovery in advanced countries including the US. There are continuing uncertainties from rising oil prices as a result of political instability in the Middle East, the effects of Japan’s earthquake and the renewed European financial crisis.
US
The US economy, affected by heavy snow, cold waves, sharp rises in energy prices and a reduction in fiscal expenditures, slowed down in the first quarter of 2011 compared with the previous quarter, posting 1.8 percent growth (advanced estimate, annualized q-o-q). In March the ISM manufacturing index dropped for the second month in a row, while industrial production and retail sales improved 0.8 percent and 1.5 percent month-onmonth, respectively. ISM manufacturing index (base=50) 56.9 (Oct 2010)
58.2 (Nov)
58.5 (Dec)
60.8 (Jan 2011)
61.4 (Feb)
61.2 (Mar)
60.4 (Apr)
In February, housing prices fell for the eighth consecutive month based on the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, but in March the new and existing home sales rose 11.1 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, compared with the previous month. The labor market stayed on a gradual recovery track in March, as unemployment fell 0.1 percentage point to 8.8 percent and non-farm payrolls increased at a faster rate. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on April 27 that the growth slowdown would be temporary, and predicted that gradual growth would continue until the end of 2011. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
2010
1
20111
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
Real GDP 2
-2.6
2.8
3.7
1.7
2.6
3.1
1.8
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
-1.2
1.8
1.9
2.2
2.4
4.0
2.7
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.1
5.6
7.8
17.2
10.0
7.7
1.8
-
-
- Housing construction investment
-22.9
-3.0
-12.3
25.7
-27.3
3.3
-4.1
-
-
Industrial production
-11.2
5.3
2.0
1.7
1.6
0.8
1.5
0.1
0.8
-7.0
6.4
2.1
1.0
0.9
3.0
2.7
1.1
1.5
Retail sales
5.2
-4.5
-12.3
7.5
-25.1
13.8
8.3
-8.9
3.7
New non-farm payroll employment (thousand)3
-422
78
39
181
-46
139
159
194
216
Consumer prices
-0.3
1.6
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.7
1.3
0.5
0.5
Existing home sales
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Monthly average Source: US Department of Commerce
4
May 2011
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
Despite China’s austerity measures in the first quarter, the country’s economy grew 9.7 percent year-on-year backed by strong industrial production and consumption. However, the economy faced continued inflationary pressure due to a rise in grain and raw material prices as well as higher demand. In 2011 the People’s Bank of China raised the interest rate twice and banks’ reserve ratio four times in order to meet the target inflation rate of 4 percent. M2 growth (y-o-y, %) 19.3 (Oct 2010)
19.5 (Nov)
19.7 (Dec)
17.2 (Jan 2011)
15.7 (Feb)
16.6 (Mar)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) 1
20111 Feb
2009 Annual
Annual
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
9.1
10.3
11.9
10.3
9.6
9.8
9.7
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
30.5
24.5
26.4
25.5
24.5
24.5
32.5
34.0
32.5
Retail sales
15.5
23.3
23.7
23.8
23.9
22.0
17.1
11.6
17.4
Real GDP
Mar
11.0
15.7
19.6
16.0
13.5
13.3
14.9
14.9
14.8
Exports Consumer prices
-16.0
31.3
28.7
40.9
32.2
24.9
26.4
2.4
35.8
-0.7
3.3
2.2
2.9
3.5
4.7
4.9
4.9
5.4
Producer prices
-5.4
5.5
5.2
6.8
4.5
5.7
6.6
7.2
7.3
Industrial production
1. Preliminary
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
The Japanese economy saw industrial production and retail sales significantly decline affected by the March 11 earthquake, while exports slowed down. On April 28, the Bank of Japan revised down its economic forecast for 2011 from 1.6 percent to 0.6 percent. (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial and mining production Retail sales (y-o-y) Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
Q1
20101 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
1.5
0.5
0.8
-0.3
-
-
-
16.4
7.4
0.7
-1.1
-0.1
-2.0
1.8
-15.3
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
-0.4
-3.0
0.1
-8.5
-33.1
24.4
43.2
33.2
17.8
10.0
2.4
9.0
-2.3
-1.4
-0.7
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2009 Annual
Annual
-6.3
4.0
-21.9 -2.3
20111 Feb
Mar
Source: Japan’s Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre
Eurozone
While Eurozone’s economy gradually improved, fiscal problems reemerged following Portugal’s request for an EU bailout on April 6 and concerns over the Greek debt restructuring. The European Central Bank raised the policy rate from 1.0 percent to 1.25 percent on April 7 in response to growing inflation. (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
6
May 2011
Source: Eurostat
1
Q1
20111 Feb
Mar
-
-
-
1.7
-
0.5
-
0.4
0.3
-
0.3
-
22.3
22.8
21.8
-
23.1
-
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.7
2.4
2.7
2009 Annual
Annual
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
-4.0
1.7
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.3
-14.9
7.1
2.4
2.4
1.0
-2.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
-18.1
20.1
12.9
0.3
1.6
1.1
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advanced estimate of GDP) increased 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009
Private consumption2 (Seasonally adjusted) 3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
20111
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
0.0
-4.7
-1.1
0.4
5.6
4.1
6.6
3.5
3.6
2.9
3.0
-
-0.3
3.7
1.4
0.9
-
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.5
3. Percentage change from previous period
In March, retail sales climbed 2.9 percent month-on-month and 4.9 percent year-on-year with sales of durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods rising 1.5 percent, 2.9 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. The increases, partly due to a low base effect, came as new vehicles were released, and a cold wave and foot-and-mouth disease subsided. On a year-on-year basis, durable and semi-durable goods sales expanded 14.9 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively, whereas those of non-durable ones declined 0.4 percent affected by higher prices of food and petroleum products. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Durable goods3 ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods
5
4
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
2.7
6.6
9.7
4.9
7.5
5.1
4.9
-0.8
4.9
-
-
0.6
-0.1
3.3
0.8
1.0
-6.2
2.9
8.2
14.9
29.6
5.6
17.0
10.6
12.8
9.1
14.9
21.8
11.1
48.9
-2.1
12.0
0.1
10.2
3.0
19.0
1.3
6.8
2.5
6.2
6.6
11.1
6.0
2.0
4.6
1.2
2.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
-0.7
0.6
-7.0
-0.4
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales of nonstore retailers and supermarkets jumped by 8.2 percent and 7.8 percent monthon-month, respectively, while all sales categories improved due to a low base effect. On a year-on-year basis, all sales categories such as nonstore retailers, department stores, specialized retailers and large discounters posted an increase. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers - Nonstore retailers
2
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
4.3
8.8
7.5
9.2
7.4
10.5
11.5
2.8
10.2
-2.2
4.4
5.4
4.1
7.6
0.8
3.5
-11.0
2.0
3.0
5.6
9.7
1.8
7.3
4.2
4.3
1.9
4.1
8.7
15.6
20.1
17.9
11.4
13.5
11.2
3.2
12.1
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
May 2011
20111
2010
2009
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Consumer goods sales are projected to go on with the increase, given the purchasing power strengthened by rebounding employment and the stock price rise, improving consumer sentiment in line with slowing down inflation, and advanced indicators showing an upward trend. Sales of gasoline decreased for the second month in a row due to high oil prices, but domestic credit card use and sales at department stores and large discounters continued to rise. Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %) 16.0 (Nov 2010)
14.5 (Dec)
16.9 (Jan 2011)
10.8 (Feb)
16.3 (Apr1)
13.1 (Mar)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 10.1 (Nov 2010)
11.6 (Dec)
24.0 (Jan 2011)
5.2 (Feb)
14.1 (Apr1)
13.1 (Mar)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) 1.7 (Nov 2010)
2.9 (Dec)
21.4 (Jan 2011)
-10.9 (Feb)
1.9 (Mar)
4.9 (Apr1)
5.7 (Feb)
-2.4 (Mar)
-4.8 (Apr1)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 11.6 (Nov 2010)
-0.5 (Dec)
5.6 (Jan 2011)
Consumer goods imports (y-o-y, %) 37.2 (Nov 2010)
17.6 (Dec)
44.0 (Jan 2011)
22.5 (Feb)
32.0 (Mar)
1. Preliminary Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for April data)
The number of workers hired has grown amid a continuous wage increase, which has led to a rise in consumption. Nominal income (y-o-y, %) 2.6 (Q4, 2009)
6.1 (Q1, 2010)
5.2 (Q2)
6.3 (Q3)
2.0 (Q4)
Employment (y-o-y, thousands) 316 (Oct 2010)
303 (Nov)
455 (Dec)
331 (Jan 2011)
469 (Feb)
469 (Mar)
Although the consumer sentiment index registered at the benchmark of 100, it turned to an increase for the first time in five months, showing signs of picking up. Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI, base=100) 108 (Oct 2010)
110 (Nov)
109 (Dec)
108 (Jan 2011)
105 (Feb)
98 (Mar)
100 (Apr)
However, considering uncertainties in the global economy such as rising international oil prices and the renewed European financial crisis, consumer sentiment may possibly deteriorate. Dubai crude (US$/barrel) 79.9 (Oct 2010)
10
May 2011
84.5 (Nov)
88.8 (Dec)
94.6 (Jan 2011)
107.4 (Feb)
109.4 (Mar)
118.4 (Apr)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimate of GDP) in the first quarter of 2011 posted a quarteron-quarter decrease of 0.8 percent and a year-on-year gain of 12.0 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009
Facility investment
2 3
(Seasonally adjusted) - Machinery
- Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
20111
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-9.8
-9.4
12.2
25.0
29.1
30.5
26.6
15.9
12.0
-
9.1
7.8
-
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-0.8
-13.5
-18.1
10.1
30.8
30.0
35.3
38.9
20.5
-
2.8
24.4
19.1
6.7
24.2
15.6
-6.6
0.6
-
3. Percentage change from previous period
Facility investment in March rose 2.9 percent month-on-month and 0.3 percent year-on-year, backed by strong transportation equipment investment. Facility investment is projected to go on with solid growth, given rising investment demand in line with economic recovery, positive signs in leading indicators and improving business sentiment. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Facility investment (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Machinery - Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders 2
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-9.4
25.1
30.0
29.5
29.3
Q11
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
13.6
6.6
21.2
1.4
0.3
-
-
4.0
6.7
7.2
-5.4
-0.2
3.5
-8.6
2.9
-12.6
30.5
32.5
37.1
37.4
17.1
6.8
26.6
0.4
-2.0
4.6
4.3
19.3
2.8
-0.1
-1.2
5.6
-1.3
6.0
11.0
-10.3
11.2
10.3
24.7
-0.2
11.3
19.5
19.7
26.1
14.2
-
-
-4.0
15.2
-3.6
4.1
3.5
-15.5
-0.8
2.6
- Public
62.4
-37.9
-43.7
-42.2
-71.7
31.4
-10.3
-31.5
14.0
-6.3
- Private
-18.2
21.8
22.6
35.5
22.0
7.8
22.6
25.1
27.0
16.9
-16.6
40.4
48.3
51.3
40.0
26.3
7.9
22.2
-1.9
5.8
Manufacturing operation ratio
-3.5
8.8
19.2
10.8
1.8
5.3
2.7
5.6
1.5
1.1
Facility investment adjustment pressure3
-3.7
9.5
20.4
12.1
3.4
4.6
4.0
7.0
2.5
2.6
(Seasonally adjusted)
Machinery imports
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period 3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
2010
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
May 2011
2011
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
103
103
104
104
102
103
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimate of GDP) in the first quarter of 2011 fell 6.7 percent quarter-on-quarter and 11.9 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009 Annual
20111
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q11
3.4
3.2
4.0
-1.4
4.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.9
-11.9
-
-1.2
0.7
-
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-6.7
- Building construction
-2.3
0.2
2.4
-2.9
4.5
-5.1
-6.3
-2.8
-
- Civil engineering works
11.6
8.2
5.6
0.5
4.0
1.0
1.7
-2.9
-
Construction investment2 (Seasonally adjusted)3
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period Source: The Bank of Korea
The value of construction completion (constant) in March, as both building construction and civil engineering works improved in some parts, gained 13.4 percent month-on-month, while losing 9.2 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
2010
1
20111
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q41
Q11
Jan1
Feb1
Mar1
1.6
-3.3
3.4
-4.3
-6.8
-4.3
-13.1
-11.0
-20.0
-9.2
-
-
2.6
-3.1
-4.3
-1.6
-5.0
-8.8
-9.4
13.4
- Building construction
-6.4
-7.1
1.5
-7.7
-12.3
-8.5
-16.0
-13.6
-22.0
-13.3
- Civil engineering works
16.1
2.2
6.0
0.6
1.9
1.2
-9.0
-7.6
-17.3
-3.7
5.0
-18.7
-1.6
-6.7
-3.6
-40.2
-12.8
-33.9
-16.7
13.7
-
-
-31.4
0.2
-1.4
-22.9
12.8
-11.3
-2.6
22.0
Value of construction completion(constant) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
Construction orders (current value) (Seasonally adjusted)
2
- Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
-14.2
-9.9
8.3
55.3
-1.3
-46.4
-9.7
-46.8
-14.6
61.5
44.3
-29.5
-12.4
-49.7
-7.0
-29.9
-17.0
-1.1
-19.3
-24.7
-12.9
19.3
12.1
47.4
-14.3
18.1
21.5
59.6
11.3
5.2
1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from previous period Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment is likely to be sluggish for a while considering poor construction orders, SOC budget cuts and contracted investment sentiment of construction companies. The construction sector is expected to gradually improve, as government’s measures to boost housing markets will be implemented as planned, and the housing market will rebound as a result.
2010
Business survey indices (base=100) for construction projections Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
May 2011
2011
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
81.3
77.5
87.0
80.5
59.1
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in April increased 26.6 percent (preliminary) year on year to US$49.77 billion. The average daily exports rose to a record high of US$2.12 billion, as exports continued to grow amid global economic recovery. By business category, exports of petroleum products (up 78.9%), vessels (up 54.6 %), and automobiles (up 35.7%) surged, while those of semiconductors (down 0.7 %) slightly decreased. By regional category, exports to Japan (up 64.8 %), the Middle East (up 46.0 %), the ASEAN countries (up 38.8%), and the US (up 17.7%) surged, while those to EU (up 13.5%) and China (up 9.8%) stayed on an upward trajectory. (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr1
365.53
466.38
101.08
120.24
116.32
128.75
44.60
38.61
48.07
49.77
-13.9
28.3
35.8
33.1
22.7
23.8
45.1
16.9
28.9
26.6
1.30
1.70
1.51
1.76
1.72
1.79
1.94
2.03
2.00
2.12
323.08
425.21
98.16
105.63
105.70
115.73
41.76
36.15
45.29
43.95
(y-o-y, %)
-25.8
31.6
37.4
42.8
24.6
24.6
32.4
16.4
27.3
23.7
Average daily imports
13.16
1.46
0.47
1.54
1.57
1.61
1.82
1.90
1.89
1.87
Imports
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in April increased 23.7 percent (preliminary) year on year to US$43.95 billion. Rising international commodities prices and recovering domestic demand led to increasing import, in particular that in raw materials (up 23.7%) and consumer goods (up 28.9%). The current account balance in April posted a surplus of US$5.82billion (preliminary), sharply accelerating from the previous month. (US$ billion) 2009
Trade Balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
May 2011
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr1
40.45
41.17
2.93
14.61
10.62
13.02
2.92
2.46
2.78
5.82
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in March, free from the holiday effect, rose 1.4 percent month-on-month and 8.7 percent year-on-year, as exports continued to be brisk. By business category, primary metals (up 4.2%) and automobiles (up 2.5%) increased month-on-month, while audio-visual communications equipment (down 7.9%) and semiconductors and parts (down 1.8%) went down. The month-on-month increase in shipment (up 2.6%) outpaced that in inventories (up 0.4%), and the manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio declined in two months. By business category, the shipments of other transportation equipment (up 9.4%) and semiconductors and parts (up 5.8%) increased month-on-month, while those of audio-visual communications equipment (down 5.6%) and machinery (down 1.5%) declined. The inventories of machinery (up 6.6%) and primary metals (up 6.2%) climbed month-on-month, while those of computers (down 12.8%) and semiconductors and parts (down 1.0%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector improved 0.1 percentage point to 82.5 percent, hovering above the 10 year average of 78.3 percent between 2000 and 2010 by 4.2 percentage points. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20111
2010 Q1
Q4
Mar
Q11
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
-
4.9
-0.5
2.0
5.9
4.4
-2.5
1.4
(y-o-y)
16.2
25.4
11.7
22.4
10.5
13.6
9.2
8.7
- Manufacturing
16.7
26.6
12.0
23.2
10.7
14.0
9.4
9.0
∙ICT
Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
25.2
45.9
15.2
39.1
14.3
17.0
17.8
9.0
∙Automobiles
23.1
48.8
10.2
46.1
16.1
24.3
12.8
11.6
Shipment
14.4
20.9
11.9
18.8
11.9
14.9
10.3
10.5
- Domestic demand
11.5
19.5
8.3
18.6
7.2
10.3
6.0
5.1
- Exports
18.2
22.7
16.9
18.9
18.5
21.2
16.1
18.0
Inventory4
17.4
7.5
17.4
7.5
9.8
13.0
11.4
9.8
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
81.2
80.4
80.8
81.5
83.2
84.8
82.4
82.5
7.2
6.2
7.4
7.0
6.7
7.0
6.9
6.4
Mining and manufacturing activity2
3
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to stay on an upward track, with exports steadily growing, labor-management conflicts in the automobile industry being eased and production in the steel industry increasing. Exports (y-o-y, %) 21.4 (Nov 2010)
22.6 (Dec)
45.2 (Jan 2011)
16.9 (Feb)
28.9 (Mar)
26.6 (Apr1)
Automobile production (thousand) 389 (Nov 2010)
397 (Dec)
388 (Jan 2011)
297 (Feb)
396 (Mar)
395 (Apr1)
1. Preliminary
Major steel producers including POSCO recently revealed their plans to increase production in line with growing demand.
18
May 2011
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Despite sluggish hotels & restaurants and real estate & renting, service activity in March increased 2.0 percent month-on-month due to improving wholesale & retail sales and transportation services. The increase was also helped by robust exports and eased adverse effects of cold waves and foot-and-mouth disease. On a year-on-year basis, service activity increased 2.7 percent. Service activities in hotels & restaurant and real estate & renting decreased due to the devastating earthquake in Japan and a delay in real estate market’s recovery. Meanwhile, educational services suffered a slowdown for three consecutive months affected by the poor performance of private institutions. With service activities in other areas showing an even growth, transportation services significantly increased, affected by increasing freight volume amid robust exports. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight Service activity index
2009
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Feb
Mar
100.0
1.8
3.9
6.2
4.2
2.3
3.1
2.5
0.1
2.7
- Wholesale & retail sales
21.8
-0.4
5.7
7.4
5.6
5.0
4.7
3.6
-0.8
3.3
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6
12.0
14.1
14.3
10.1
10.0
6.7
3.7
8.2
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.4
1.2
1.2
0.7
1.3
1.7
-0.7
-0.5
-1.3
- Information & communication services
8.4
0.9
1.9
1.0
0.4
2.2
3.6
4.0
0.9
3.2
15.3
7.8
4.6
6.7
2.5
1.4
8.2
7.1
6.5
6.8
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
-8.6
11.5
-2.4
-15.9
-24.3
-17.7
-20.1
-13.7
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.2
-0.7
0.8
2.1
-3.9
-1.9
-3.5
-8.8
-1.8
- Financial & insurance services
- Business services
2.9
-3.0
7.4
5.3
8.1
7.6
8.4
5.8
3.8
5.0
10.8
2.1
2.0
3.2
1.4
0.5
3.1
0.7
-0.8
-1.0
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
8.8
11.7
11.0
8.6
4.6
6.4
4.9
6.7
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
-0.4
-3.9
-0.1
-0.4
2.7
2.5
0.6
5.1
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.1
4.3
1.6
6.0
5.0
4.5
2.1
1.2
-0.4
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
5.1
6.7
6.0
1.7
6.4
0.2
-6.1
1.0
- Educational services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service activity is expected to continue an upward trend in April helped by active economic activities amid economic recovery, robust logistics performance and expanded consumption.
20
May 2011
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
March 2011 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in March increased by 469,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 58.3 percent. By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 198,000), services (up 243,000) and agriculture, forestry & fishery (up 71,000) climbed while that in construction (down 50,000) declined. Hiring in manufacturing maintained a high growth rate helped by increasing production in mining. The service sector continued to expand employment with increasing health & welfare (up 208,000), business assistance (up 100,000) and professional, scientific & technical services (up 78,000). By status of workers, the number of regular workers (up 617,000) and daily workers (up 25,000) increased whereas temporary workers (down 194,000) decreased. Non-wage workers (up 30,000) went up slightly as self-employed workers (down 25,000) decelerated the decline.
2009 Annual Number of employed (million)
Q2
2010
Q3
Q4
Annual Mar
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Feb
Mar
Q1
23.51 23.74 23.75 23.63 23.83 23.38 23.04 24.17 24.12 23.99 23.34 23.85 23.46
Employment rate (%)
58.6
59.3
59.1
58.7
58.7
57.8
57.0
59.6
59.3
58.9
57.1
58.3
57.4
(seasonally adjusted)
58.6
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.7
58.5
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
58.9
59.0
58.8
-72 -134
-1
-6
323
267
132
433
369
358
469
469
423
-34 -109
24
110
405
455
296
518
414
393
520
540
451
-126 -151 -143
-49
191
110
61
172
262
269
262
198
228
- Construction
-91 -113 -103 -107
33
-16
-61
44
92
57
27
-50
-3
- Services
179
154
261
200
362
313
325
83
80
227
243
224
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-38
-25
-25 -116
-82 -188 -164
-85
-45
-35
-51
71
-28
- Wage workers
247
175
356
385
517
541
371
623
541
532
574
448
519
∙Regular workers
383
313
386
515
697
752
651
766
671
699
604
617
605
22
-5
125
105
-34
35
-37
42
-57 -194
-88
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand) (Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery) - Manufacturing
∙Temporary workers ∙Daily workers - Non-wage workers ∙Self-employed workers - Male - Female
261
-26 -114
-158 -133 -155 -235 -146 -247 -243 -185 -104
-53
27
-319 -309 -357 -391 -194 -274 -239 -189 -172 -174 -105 -259 -286 -276 -279 -118 -135 -106 31
25
2
20
-96
-91 -130 -146 -130
-25 -115
24
34
89
181
145
117
188
207
212
292
325
266
-103 -158
-34
-94
142
123
15
245
163
146
177
143
157
-99 -123
- 15 to 29
-127
-77
-43
-33
-12
-58
-44
-57
-37
-38
-49
- 30 to 39
-173 -213 -169 -149
-4
-8
-42
-13
21
17
-36
-37
-34
- 40 to 49
-24
-27
-30
-46
29
-32
-21
48
40
50
87
62
77
- 50 to 59
198
156
211
230
294
264
251
342
295
287
310
299
286
54
49
109
37
47
12
-44
114
57
60
145
182
143
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
May 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in March increased by 68,000 year-on-year to 1,073,000.The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3 percent. The youth unemployment rate was up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 9.5 percent as job seekers who actively looked for jobs amid economic recovery and people who applied for national examination for local public officers were counted as unemployed persons.
2009
2010
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Number of unemployed (thousand)
889
943
886
817
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
119
176
134
60
31
53
80
116
95
25
-7
- Male
Annual Mar
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
868
873
808 1,095 1,073 1,028
222
-75
-13
-10
-74
68
-101
-8
83
-47
-48
-16
-63
14
-70
920 1,005 1,130
Feb
Mar
Q1
- Female
40
60
39
36
38
60
139
-29
35
6
-11
54
-32
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.7
4.1
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
4.5
4.3
4.2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.6
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
4.0
4.0
3.9
- 15 to 29
8.1
8.0
8.1
7.6
8.0
9.0
9.5
7.7
7.6
7.1
8.5
9.5
8.8
- 30 to 39
3.6
3.9
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.8
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
- 40 to 49
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.8
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.7
2.6
2.5
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.5
2.6
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.7
- 60 or more
1.6
1.9
1.6
1.5
2.8
3.0
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
6.5
3.9
4.5
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in March was down 74,000 from a year earlier to 16,000,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) rose 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 60.9 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to rest, time-off and leisure (up 142,000) and housework (up 36,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to old age (down 113,000), education (down 58,000) and childcare (down 22,000) decreased.
2009 Annual
Q2
2011
2010
Q3
Q4
Annual Mar
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Feb
Mar
Q1
Economically inactive population (million) 15.70 15.35 15.53 15.83 15.84 16.07 16.25 15.49 15.66 15.96 16.45 16.00 16.39 Labor force participation rate (%)
60.6
61.7
61.3
60.7
61.0
60.3
59.8
61.8
61.5
60.8
59.8
60.9
59.9
(seasonally adjusted)
60.6
60.9
61.0
60.6
61.0
60.8
61.0
61.0
61.1
60.7
61.4
61.5
61.1
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
447
445
374
456
143
198
166
146
128
133
63
-74
138
15 -125 -112 -118 -126 -149 -107
- Childcare
40
48
19
-44
-22
-44
- Housework
148
125
100
235
201
192
237
175
303
189
85
36
130
- Education
31
58
11
-36
12
-25
-74
23
46
55
-40
-58
-16
- Old age
88
102
105
92
80
191
193
59
43
25 -121 -113
-103
123
112
94
123
-56 -140 -187
-27
15
- Rest, time-off and leisure Source: Statistics Korea
24
May 2011
-27
244
142
241
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market Helped by strong domestic and overseas earnings and inflows of global liquidity, the Korean stock price index rose to a fresh record high of 2,216 points on April 25. On the same day, the KOSPI posted a record high of 1,242 trillion won in terms of market capitalization. Despite concerns over global inflation, a possible debt restructuring in the southern European countries and Standard & Poor’s decision to revise its outlook on the US AAA credit rating to “negative” from “stable”, the Korean stock market gained in April led by domestic auto and chemical sectors, overseas companies including tech heavyweight Intel Corp, and continuing inflows of liquidity. With abundant liquidity and high earnings expectations, foreign investors maintained the net-buying position on Korean shares to purchase 3.2 trillion won in April. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI Mar 2011
Apr 2011
Stock price index
2,106.7
2,192.4
Market capitalization
1,181.4
KOSDAQ Change
Mar 2011
Apr 2011
Change1
+85.7 (+4.1%)
525.4
511.0
-14.4 (-2.7%)
1,229.8
+48.4 (+4.1%)
103.9
102.0
-1.9 (-1.9%)
1
Average daily trade value
6.8
9.2
+2.4 (+35.9%)
2.1
2.1
+0.02 (+1.1%)
Foreign stock ownership
32.5
32.6
+0.1 (+0.4%)
10.4
10.6
+0.1 (+1.3%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in April decreased 25.2 won from 1,096.7 won at the end of March to wrap up the month at 1,071.5 won. Despite overseas woes including Portugal’s bailout, the won/dollar exchange rate fell 25.2 won, affected by a global weak dollar trend following the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates close to zero. Along with most Asian currencies making gains, the won/100 yen exchange rate was down 11.5 won month-on-month as the won appreciated significantly, backed by solid fundamentals. (End-period) 2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Mar
2011 Apr
Change1
Won/Dollar
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,096.7
1,071.5
5.9
Won/100 Yen
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,325.6
1,314.1
6.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
May 2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market Treasury bond yields inched up in April due to diminishing demand for safe assets on improving earnings news. Despite expectations over Bank of Korea’s key interest rate hike boosted by high inflation and strong earnings reports, the bond yields, mainly those of short-term bonds, increased only slightly due to the global easy monetary policy and ample overhanging demand. (End-period)
Call rate (1 day)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
Change1
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.51
2.76
2.99
3.02
+3
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.80
3.17
3.39
3.42
+3
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.38
3.84
3.73
3.77
+4
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.27
4.63
4.51
4.56
+5
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.08
4.28
4.11
4.10
-1
1. Basis point, changes in April 2011 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in February expanded 5.0 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. Despite banks’ expanded lending, the month-on-month M2 growth slowed down due to smaller government expenditure, beleaguered asset management companies (AMCs) and savings banks, and outflows of foreign portfolio investments. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average) 2008 Annual Annual M1
20104
2009
20114
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Feb1
18.9
17.8
11.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
11.2
12.6
11.5
432
-1.8
16.3
10.8
17.6
M2
14.3
10.3
11.5
10.1
9.9
9.8
8.7
9.4
9.5
8.6
7.4
6.5
5.0
1,674
Lf 3
11.9
7.9
8.8
7.3
7.8
7.8
8.2
8.5
9.1
8.2
7.1
6.6
5.2
2,148
2
1. Balance at end February 2011, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In March, bank deposits plunged while asset management company (AMC) deposits shifted to an increase. Despite an increase in time deposits, bank deposits greatly decelerated due to a decrease in money market deposit accounts (MMDA) and the transfer of debts between banks affected by KB Financial’s spinoff of its credit card unit. Asset management company (AMC) deposits turned to an increase as growth in equity funds continued and money market fund (MMF) shifted to a rise, helped by capital inflows from banks. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Mar
Annual
Mar
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar1
Bank deposits
54.8
-4.4
36.9
16.2
2.1
14.3
-11.4
1,049
AMC deposits
-27.6
-3.0
-16.7
6.1
-5.2
-8.5
0.6
1,302
1. Balance at end March, trillion won
28
May 2011
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in March slightly expanded from the previous month’s US$1.13 billion to US$1.43 billion. Despite rising international commodity prices, the goods account surplus, helped by solid exports, accelerated the growth to post US$2.86 billion from the previous month’s US$1.53 billion. The service account deficit slightly narrowed to US$330 million from the previous month’s deficit of US$570 million on the back of increased revenue from transportation and construction services. The primary income account shifted to a deficit of US$860 million from the previous month’s surplus of US$540 million due to dividend payments by Korean companies whose fiscal year ends in December. Meanwhile, the secondary income account deficit narrowed to US$240 million from US$380 million a month earlier. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar1
Current account
32.79
28.21
0.26
8.86
9.93
9.16
0.15
1.13
1.43
- Goods balance
37.87
41.90
4.79
12.24
12.54
12.34
1.56
1.53
2.86
- Service balance
-6.64
-11.23
-4.20
-1.87
-2.96
-2.20
-1.64
-0.57
-0.33
- Income balance
2.28
0.77
0.55
-1.01
1.30
-0.07
0.70
0.54
-0.86
- Current transfers
-0.71
-3.23
-0.87
-0.50
-0.95
-0.91
-0.47
-0.38
-0.24
Source: The Bank of Korea 1. Preliminary
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in March turned to the inflow of US$500 million from the previous month’s outflow of US$2 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -0.34 (Dec 2010)
-1.28 (Jan 2011)
-2.00 (Feb)
0.50 (Mar)
The direct investment account slightly decelerated the outflow to US$1.34 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$1.64 billion due to decreased overseas direct investments by locals. The portfolio investment account shifted to an inflow of US$720 million from the previous month’s outflow of US$3 billion as foreign investors decelerated their net-selling of Korean shares and increased investments in bonds. The financial derivatives account turned to an inflow of US$520 million from the previous month’s outflow of US$360 million. The other investment account shifted to an outflow of US$670 million from the previous month’s inflow of US$5.13 billion as domestic banks’ overseas lending increased. Despite widened primary income account deficit due to dividend payments by Korean companies whose fiscal year end in December, the current account surplus in April is expected to expand from the previous month driven by a rising goods account surplus.
30
May 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in April rose 4.2 percent year-on-year and 0.0 percent month-on-month. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products stabilized as vegetable prices went down, but high oil product prices and a price hike in personal services led to an increase of consumer prices. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 3.2 percent year-onyear and 0.2 percent month-on-month in April. The year-on-year increase rate was lower than the previous month’s because price hikes in personal service charges had slowed down. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 4.1 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2010
2011
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Month-on-Month (%)
0.5
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.2
-0.6
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.0
Year-on-Year (%)
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
3.6
4.1
3.3
3.5
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.2
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.2
(m-o-m)
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.2
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
4.1
4.8
3.6
3.9
4.7
5.2
4.9
4.1
Source: Statistics Korea
Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices stabilized (down 1.8%, m-o-m), as vegetable prices posted a significant drop from the previous month. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in Apr (m-o-m, %) Rice (3.4), mackerel (3.8), egg (4.6), onion (-18.8), Chinese cabbage (-21.0), cucumber (-24.5), young radish (-24.7), spinach (-27.0), green pepper (-34.4)
Prices of oil products and processed food rose slightly (up 0.2%, m-o-m), due to price increases in international commodities such as oil. Public utility charges remained unchanged from the previous month as a result of the continued price freeze. Personal service charges increased 0.3 percent month-on-month, led by the cost of dining out, due to increasing cost burdens and inflation expectations.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
0.0
-1.8
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.00
-0.18
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.00
0.11
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
Year-on-Year (%)
4.2
9.2
5.7
14.1
3.5
0.5
3.3
Contribution (%p)
4.15
0.83
1.78
0.84
0.32
0.08
1.13
Source: Statistics Korea
32
May 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil and domestic oil product prices rose in April. International oil prices (Dubai crude) spiked due to continued political turmoil in Libya and other parts of the Middle East. (US$/barrel, period average) 2008
2009
Annual
Annual
2011
2010 Annual
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Dubai crude
94.3
61.9
78.1
80.3
83.6
88.9
92.5
100.2
108.5
115.8
Brent crude
97.5
61.7
79.7
83.2
85.8
91.8
96.8
103.9
114.6
123.3
WTI crude
99.9
61.9
79.5
81.9
84.4
89.2
89.5
89.7
103.0
110.0
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)
Stable exchange rates and oil refiners’ price cuts resulted in domestic oil product prices rising only slightly despite a significant increase in international oil prices. Won/dollar exchange rate (average) 1,120 (Jan 2011)
1,118 (Feb)
1,122 (Mar)
1,087 (Apr) (Won/liter, period average)
2008 Annual
2009 Annual
Annual
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2011 Mar
Apr
Gasoline prices
1,692
1,601
1,710
1,700
1,716
1,771
1,825
1,850
1,939
1,951
Diesel prices
1,614
1,397
1,503
1,500
1,518
1,570
1,621
1,652
1,756
1,793
2010
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Price increases in international commodities such as non-ferrous metals and grains slowed down in general, although individual items showed different price movements depending on their supply conditions. Non-ferrous metals experienced price decrease, led by copper and nickel, due to large inventories and the possibility of policy tightening in major countries such as China. Rise in stocks as of April 22 (change from the end of the previous month, tons) Zinc (79,000), lead (210,000), copper (17,000)
International grains exhibited different price trends depending on supply conditions. Corn rallied due to delays in planting new crops, while raw sugar declined. Prices of non-ferrous metals and grains in Apr (m-o-m, %) Corn (10.0), barley (6.0), aluminum (4.2), lead (2.7), soybean (0.6), zinc (0.4), copper (-0.3), nickel (-1.6), raw sugar (-10.4)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2,536
2,079
2,553
2,824
2,952
3,119
3,228
3,323
3,221
3,246
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREAPDS
34
May 2011
2011
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market The upward trend of nationwide apartment sales prices decelerated in April, with prices rising 1.2 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.1 percent month-on-month, with the increase rate slightly lower than that of the previous month. Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area showed a persistent upward trend, led by South Gyeongsang Province (up 3.9%, m-o-m), Gwangju (up 3.3%, mo-m) and Busan (up 3.2%, m-o-m). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities climbed 2.4 percent and 2.0 percent each, surpassing the national average.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual
Annual Annual Apr
2010
2011
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Apr 41 Apr 111 Apr 181 Apr 251
Nationwide
2.1
2.3
1.6
2.5
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.6
1.1
1.3
1.2
0.29
Seoul
3.6
3.2
2.6
-2.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.01
Gangnam2
0.5
-1.9
3.9
-1.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.05
Gangbuk3
8.3
9.4
0.9
-2.7
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.00
0.02
0.00 0.00
Seoul metropolitan area
4.0
2.9
0.7
-2.9
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.03
0.02
0.01 -0.01
5 metropolitan cities
-0.6
1.0
2.8
8.7
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.4
0.59
0.49
0.46 0.49
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
0.23
0.21 0.22
0.00 -0.01 -0.03
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental prices in April were up 1.6 percent from the previous month. The increase rate was significantly lower than the previous month’s 2.3 percent. Price increases decelerated in Seoul (up 0.7%, m-o-m), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 1.2%, mo-m) and Gyeonggi Province (up 1.7%, m-o-m). Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.0), Seocho (0.2), Songpa (0.7), Seongdong (1.5)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual
Annual Annual Apr
2010
2011
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Apr 41 Apr 111 Apr 181 Apr 251
Nationwide
1.9
0.8
4.5
8.8
0.8
1.4
1.0
1.1
2.0
2.3
1.6
0.37
0.30 0.26
0.25
Seoul
2.2
-1.8
8.1
7.4
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.1
2.1
1.8
0.7
0.12
0.12 0.12
0.06
0.5
-3.6
10.4
8.8
0.5
1.4
1.0
1.3
1.9
1.4
0.6
0.13
0.12 0.11
0.04
Gangbuk3
Gangnam
4.6
0.5
5.4
5.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
1.0
2.4
2.3
0.8
0.12
0.13 0.15
0.08
Seoul metropolitan area
2.1
-0.4
5.6
7.2
0.7
1.3
0.7
1.0
2.1
2.4
1.2
0.23
0.17 0.14
0.12
5 metropolitan cities
1.1
1.6
3.9
12.0
1.0
1.5
1.4
1.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
0.55
0.47 0.39
0.44
2
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in March increased 26.3 percent from the previous month’s 77,471 to 97,842. The transactions were up 23.0 percent from 79,549 a year earlier.
Apartment sales transactions 2007
2008
(Monthly average, thousand) 2009
Annual Annual Annual Oct Nationwide
84
74
77
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
36
May 2011
87
2010
Nov 82
Dec Annual May Jun 82
71
62
65
2011
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 62
57
57
73
86
106
80
77
98
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in March rose for the fifth consecutive month (up 0.11%), but were still 1.92 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices were 0.21 percent lower compared with the previous year, but the pace of increase has accelerated evenly nationwide. Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.12%), Seoul (up 0.15%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.10%) and Incheon (up 0.06%) posted a slight increase from the previous month. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.12 (Dec 2010)
0.10 (Jan 2011)
0.10 (Feb)
0.12 (Mar)
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.08 percent month-onmonth in February, continuing the upward trend from October 2010. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.10 (Dec 2010)
0.07 (Jan 2011)
0.07 (Feb)
0.08 (Mar)
Land prices by region 2007
(Percentage change from previous period) 2008
Annual Annual
2009
Q4
2010
2011
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Nationwide
3.88
-0.31 -4.09
0.96
-1.20
0.35
0.88
0.94
1.05
0.70
0.29
-0.05
0.11
0.09
0.09
0.11
Seoul
5.88
-1.00 -6.34
1.40
-1.38
0.68
1.30
0.81
0.53
0.72
0.02
-0.25
0.39
0.12
0.12
0.15
Gyeonggi
4.22
-0.26 -4.29
1.22
-1.62
0.37
1.13
1.36
1.49
0.96
0.53
-0.08
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.10
Incheon
4.86
1.37
1.99
-1.39
0.53
1.16
1.70
1.43
1.08
0.43
-0.10
0.02
0.06
0.06
0.06
-3.57
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in March recorded 244,000 land lots, up 38.7 percent from the previous month and up 14.6 percent from 213,000 a year earlier. Land transactions were 8.2% less than the five-year March average of 226,000 land lots. Month-on-month land transactions increased greatly in areas such as Seoul (up 34.3%, m-om), Incheon (up 42.9%, m-o-m), Gyeonggi Province (up 37.6%, m-o-m), and Gwangju (up 51.7%, m-o-m).
Land sales transactions
(Land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
Nationwide
2009
2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual Mar
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
208
208
203
226
212
207
241
187
213
145
181
208
257
191
176
244
Seoul
33
26
22
28
25
19
21
16
20
11
14
18
24
18
17
23
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
56
52
48
58
41
44
32
40
45
58
46
38
52
Incheon
13
13
10
13
14
11
12
8
9
7
8
9
11
8
9
13
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
38
May 2011
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Despite improvements in related indices, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.1 point in March, due to the three-month moving average effect. Among the components of the coincident composite index, six factors, including the mining & manufacturing production index and domestic shipment index, increased from the previous month, while the value of construction completion and service activity index dropped. Components of coincident composite index in Mar (m-o-m) Mining & manufacturing production index (1.0%), domestic shipment index (0.7%), wholesale & retail sales index (0.3%), volume of imports (0.3%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.3%), manufacturing operation ratio index (0.1%), value of construction completion (-2.3%), service activity index (-0.1%)
The year-on-year leading composite index in March decreased for the second consecutive month (down 0.3%p, m-o-m), as the consumer expectations index and terms of trade declined. Among the components of the leading composite index, three factors, including the indicator of inventory cycle and value of construction orders received, rose month-on-month, while six factors, such as the consumer expectations index and value of machinery orders received fell. Components of the leading composite index in Mar (m-o-m) Indicator of inventory cycle (2.6%p), value of construction orders received (0.9%), composite stock price index (0.6%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.0%p), consumer expectations index (-6.2p), value of machinery orders received (-5.2%), value of capital goods imports (-1.8%), net terms of trade index (-1.5%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-0.7%p), liquidity in the financial institutions (-0.6%) 2010
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan1
Feb1
Mar1
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.8
1.5
0.1
0.4
100.4
99.6
99.5
99.8
100.8
100.6
100.5
-0.7
-0.8
-0.1
0.3
1.0
-0.2
-0.1
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.0
-0.3
0.2
0.5
0.6
-0.2
-0.3
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
4.5
3.3
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.4
1.6
-0.9
-1.2
-0.5
0.1
0.1
-0.6
-0.8
(m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
40
May 2011
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues The 2012 guidelines on budgeting
The 2012 guidelines pursue fiscal consolidation and effective budget spending. Balanced fiscal situation on which the future of Korea is firmly based will be the focus of the 2012 budgeting, while the government continues to provide essential support.
Overview It is time for Korea to manage total fiscal balance as the country is on its way to solid fiscal recovery. The rise in the total fiscal expenditure will be controlled below that in the total revenue so that the 2012 fiscal balance can be improved from 2011’s deficit of 2.0 percent of GDP. To help the country achieve fiscal health and prepare for the better future at the same time, the government will plan budget spending on the principle of ‘selection and concentration’, and provide strong support to the most essential projects. Stricter rules will be applied to budget spending, while fiscal projects will be field-examined before allocating budgets.
42
May 2011
Guidelines on budget allocation The 2012 budgets will be aimed at 1) providing better environment for employment, education, and living, 2) fostering green growth industries and developing next generation high technologies, and 3) strengthening security in terms of homeland protection and social safety nets, and reinforcing efforts in crime and natural disaster prevention. 1) Providing better environment for employment, education, and living The 2012 budgets will contain a second round of support for working classes, which covers customized help for vulnerable groups, in addition to the ongoing support for childcare, specialized high schools, and multicultural families. Social welfare budgets will have to be planned in an employment-friendly way, which are expected to help the working poor. In 2012 there will be an increase in government’s spending related to providing lifelong education, improving living environment and developing cultural industries. Details of the guideline are as follows: - Customized jobs for women and the physically challenged - Creating jobs for baby boomers, which require their knowledge and experience - Programs to encourage basic livelihood security recipients to work - Supporting newly established self-employed businesses and providing educational opportunities to startups - Performance of government’s job creation projects to be reflected in budgeting, and similar projects to be merged or streamlined - Reinforced daycare programs aimed at raising birth rates and facilitating multicultural families’ settlement - Programs to reduce basic living costs such as those for housing, education and health care - Employment opportunities for graduates of specialized high schools to be increased through customized job training and employment arrangement with private companies - Support for university-industry cooperation to become more focused and systemized - Encouraging the private sector to provide lifelong education - Growing cultural and contents industries as one of future growth engines, and introducing voucher programs to help vulnerable groups enjoy cultural events - Support for sports, leisure and cultural activities - Helping develop regional traditional cultures as one of tourism resources - Stricter standards to be applied in examining soil and groundwater pollution - Environment related infrastructure systems such as those of water supply, drainage and sewage disposal to be reformed for effective management 2) Fostering green growth industries and developing next generation high technologies The 2012 budgets will have to more effectively allocate R&D budgets as well as expand them, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities in basic sciences. In 2012 green growth related budgets including development of energy saving technologies will be increased, with the four river restoration projects successfully carried out. Based on the
Economic Bulletin
43
budgeting guidelines which highly prioritize developing future growth engines, the government will keep nurturing IT convergence and other next generation high value added technologies, and seek developing markets in emerging countries. Green house gas emissions reduction obligations will be applied more broadly. Details of the guideline are as follows: - R&D investment to be under close evaluation with the focus of the investment moving toward basic sciences, original technologies, new growth engines, and green growth related technologies - Restructuring of similar R&D projects - National Science & Technology Council to lead the directions of national R&D projects - Maintenance of flood prevention facilities constructed during the four river restoration project - High speed rails, one of the green transportation methods, to be constructed as scheduled, with public transportation conveniently linked to them to boost demand for railways - Upgrading water quality by improving water supply and drainage infrastructures and waste disposal facilities - Helping small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) enter overseas markets, in particular emerging markets - High-tech convergence industries, biotechnologies and health-related industries to receive strong support as future growth engines - New and innovative enterprises to receive financial support on the principle of selection and concentration - Support for developing energy saving technologies and expanding overseas resources development, aimed at securing energy supply and developing substitutes for conventional energy resources - Improving distribution systems of fresh food products to stabilize their prices, and raising competitiveness of agricultural and fishery industries ahead of FTAs - Applying stricter quarantine systems for livestock - Bolstering high value added agricultural and fishery industries, such as the seed industry, bio-industry and globalized food industry 3) Strengthening homeland securities, and crime and natural disaster prevention Core combat capabilities will have to be enhanced against North Korea’s provocation and asymmetric threats. Security related budgets, such as those for natural disaster prevention, food and other everyday-life related safety, and social safety nets for vulnerable groups, will continue to expand. In addition, official development assistance (ODA) will continue to increase. Details of the guideline are as follows: - Reform of the military procurement system and military R&D investment - Increased support for military veterans - Increased spending in natural disaster prevention, information protection and everyday-life safety such as that of food and transportation
44
May 2011
- ODA to reach 0.15 percent of GNI - Increased support for North Korean defectors - Reimbursement of acquisition tax cuts to local governments, aimed at helping increase fiscal stability of the local governments
Guidelines on fiscal management The focus of the 2012 budget management is on strictly regulating spending, and pursuing fiscal consolidation. To this end, the government will limit budget spending to the most essential ones, secure tax revenue, carefully manage long-term fiscal risks, and fieldexamine fiscal projects and reflect the result in budgeting. Details of the guidelines are as follows: - Restructuring of local government projects to ease the financial burden of both the local governments and the central government - Legislation incurring budget spending to be carefully examined by government’s legislation committee - Welfare, R&D, and ODA projects to be carefully examined and restructured - Withdrawal of tax exemptions and cuts, and increased taxation on tax evaders - Mid- and long-term risk management of public debts, in particular debts of the National Pension Service and the National Health Insurance Corporation - Field examination of fiscal projects, the result of which to be reflected in allocating budgets - Careful examination of ongoing fiscal projects by outsourced experts
Economic Bulletin
45
Economic News Briefing
Korea grows 1.4% in Q1 (Advanced) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the previous quarter. From a year earlier, the GDP grew 4.2 percent. On the production side, manufacturing sector expanded 3.2 percent led by an increase in electrical & electronic equipment, steel and automobile manufacturing. Service sectors grew 1.3 percent from the previous quarter’s 1.1 percent. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishery contracted by 5.1 percent due to the sluggishness in the livestock industry affected by the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. On the expenditure side, exports rose by 3.3 percent helped by robust semiconductors, electronic components and automobiles exports. Private consumption grew by 0.5 percent as increased expenditures on durable goods offset sluggish spending on nondurable goods. Facility investment and construction investment decreased by 0.8 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively. Real gross domestic income (GDI) fell by 0.6 percent as terms of trade declined affected by high oil prices.
46
May 2011
<GDP by production and expenditure*>
(Percentage change from previous period) 20101
2009 Q2
Q1
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q4
1.4 (4.2)
0.1 (-4.2) 2.5 (-2.1) 3.4 (1.0) 0.2 (6.3) 2.1 (8.5) 1.4 (7.5) 0.6 (4.4) 0.5 (4.7) 2
GDP Agriculture, forestry and fishery Manufacturing Construction Services
Q3
20111
3
Private consumption Government consumption Facility investment
1.1
0.0
3.7
0.0
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
0.2
-5.1 (-9.2)
-3.4
8.4
9.7
-1.1
4.2
4.0
2.3
0.1
3.2 (9.9)
3.5
1.3
-1.4
0.5
1.4
-0.1
-1.2
-3.2
-6.1 (-9.9)
0.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.6
0.1
0.1
1.3
1.3 (2.8)
-0.3
3.7
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.5 (3.0)
2.6
0.8
0.1
-1.1
3.6
0.3
-0.1
-0.4
1.8 (1.6)
-10.2
6.7
9.1
7.8
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-0.8 (12.0)
3.9
2.4
-1.2
0.7
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-6.7 (-11.9)
Goods exports4
-2.1
13.3
5.4
-1.7
3.0
7.4
2.5
3.0
4.6 (18.6)
Goods imports
-6.1
8.1
7.8
-0.4
4.8
7.1
3.6
-0.7
2.7 (13.3)
0.8
4.8
1.9
1.2
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.3
-0.6 (1.6)
Construction investment
4
Gross Domestic Income
*At 2005 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis
National Assembly passes Korea-EU FTA The National Assembly approved the Korea-EU free trade agreement (FTA) on May 4, 2011 by a vote of 163 to 1 with 5 abstentions. The trade pact between Korea and the EU was initialed on October 15, 2009 and signed on October 6, 2010. The European Parliament supported the trade agreement by a wide margin on February 17, 2011. With the approval of both parties, the provisional application of the FTA is expected on July 1, 2011. The Korea-EU FTA will bring significant positive effects on the Korean economy considering that the EU is the world’s biggest trading bloc and Korea’s second largest trading partner. In addition, the trade pact is expected to contribute to solidifying the strategic partnership, which was established during the Korea-EU Summit last October. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade welcomed the ratification of the FTA, saying it will help Korea better prepare against global economic challenges such as Japan’s devastating earthquake, political upheaval in the Middle East and North Africa, and the Korean currency’s appreciation.
Economic Bulletin
47
Korea announces follow-up plan for improving service sector The Korean government released an assessment of previous plans to nurture the service sector and announced follow-up measures for the industry, at a meeting held by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) on April 27. Since 2001, the government has introduced various measures to enhance the competitiveness of the service sector, but ten years of efforts have not led to significant advancements to the sector. Although some improvements have been made in terms of increased employment opportunities and eased regulations, other areas, such as the structure of employment, productivity and international competitiveness, leave much to be desired. According to the assessments, the employment rate in the service industry has been steadily increasing but there needs to be efforts to improve the quality of employment. In order to enhance productivity, knowledge based service industries should increase investment in research and development (R&D), and to improve the service account, the tourism, education and consulting services should be further promoted. The government pointed out five service industries that need improvement - medical and social services, education, tourism and leisure, broadcasting and communication contents, and business services - and unveiled detailed action plans.
Korea to support construction industry On May 1, the Korean government unveiled a comprehensive program to boost the sluggish construction industry. Establishing a bad bank to buy non-performing property loans, reducing transfer taxes for homeowners in Seoul and the Seoul metropolitan area, extending tax incentives for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and funds, expanding the supply of houses by easing regulations on land use and promoting project developments without minimum revenue guarantee (MRG) are part of the plan. In particular, by creating a Project Financing Stabilization Bank (â&#x20AC;&#x153;the PFS Bankâ&#x20AC;?), all project financing (PF) loans can be pooled together and purchased by one bank so that the PFS Bank can take actions to restructure and stabilize the industry on an individual project basis. The first PFS bank, which will be launched during June 2011, will acquire 1 trillion won worth of soured PF loans. The second and the third PFS Banks will follow suit afterwards.
48
May 2011
Korea to help low-income households’ access to financial services The Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced on April 18 measures to lower financial costs of low-income households and strengthen the financial safety net. According to the plan, Korea will provide 3.2 trillion won in loans to low-income families this year through its three lending programs: Smile Microcredit, Sunshine Loans; and New Hope Loans. Regarding individual credit rating, credit inquiry records would be no longer taken into the assessment of individuals’ credit rating. In addition, overdue payments of less than 100,000 won would not affect borrower’s credit rating. Overdue payments of less than 90 days would be reflected only for three years, in the assessment of borrower’s credit ratings if debts are fully repaid. As a part of the plan, measures such as putting a cap on loan brokerage fees, strengthening the crackdown on illicit brokerage practices, extending the operation of pre-workout program, broadening the scope of beneficiaries of transfer loans, and expanding financial support for those in the credit recovery program, establishing a database of financial services targeting low-income earners and creating more education programs for them are included.
Government strengthens price stabilization efforts The Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) held a meeting on May 3 to discuss the government’s price stabilization efforts. Responding to inflationary pressures in regional public utility and personal service charges, the government has set up an action plan to provide 50 billion won in financial aid to stabilize public utility prices in regional areas. The system will be introduced in June to compensate provincial governments for losses from price hikes in intra-city buses, subways and water supply. Meanwhile, the government recognized that provision of agricultural, livestock and fishery products have improved but supply problems still exist in certain items such as rice and pork. Therefore the government will attempt to stabilize the market by releasing its holdings of rice and increasing tariff quotas for imported pork.
Economic Bulletin
49
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 3.2 -4.3
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.8 -1.5 14.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.2 3.9
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -1.0 7.0
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 3.4 -1.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.8 25.0
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009
I II III IV
-4.2 -2.1 1.0 6.3
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-13.6 -7.1 1.8 13.1
-2.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
-7.5 -3.0 -1.0 6.2
1.6 4.3 3.2 4.0
-21.9 -18.1 -9.4 12.2
2010P
I II III IV
8.5 7.5 4.4 4.7
0.9 -2.2 -7.3 -6.7
22.2 17.8 9.8 11.1
5.9 3.4 3.4 3.0
12.5 6.8 6.8 3.4
4.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.9
29.1 30.5 26.6 15.9
2011P
I
4.2
-9.2
9.9
2.7
-2.2
-11.9
12.0
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
May 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Production index
Period
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.7 139.1
-0.1 16.2
116.7 133.5
-1.4 14.4
115.5 135.6
-7.8 17.4
118.3 122.9
1.8 3.9
2009
I II III IV
103.5 118.7 125.3 131.2
-15.1 -5.4 4.9 16.8
102.6 116.6 120.7 126.9
-14.4 -5.2 2.3 12.9
115.9 110.4 113.0 115.5
-6.2 -17.0 -14.3 -7.8
112.9 118.0 118.9 123.4
-1.1 1.1 2.4 4.8
2010
I II III IV
129.8 141.0 139.0 146.6
25.4 18.8 10.9 11.7
124.0 135.1 132.7 142.0
20.9 15.9 9.9 11.9
124.6 127.7 134.6 135.6
7.5 17.5 19.1 17.4
119.9 122.9 121.6 127.3
6.2 4.2 2.3 3.2
143.4
10.5
138.7
11.9
136.8
9.8
122.9
2.5
2011
IP
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
94.4 100.7 115.3 117.2 116.1 122.7 124.6 117.8 133.4 128.1 130.7 134.8
-25.3 -9.4 -10.1 -7.4 -8.2 -0.6 1.0 1.4 12.1 1.2 18.5 34.8
93.7 100.3 113.8 115.6 113.8 120.5 120.1 113.6 128.3 124.0 126.6 130.1
-23.1 -8.7 -10.7 -7.4 -7.9 0.0 -1.2 -1.0 9.1 -0.2 15.3 26.2
123.9 117.7 115.9 112.3 111.5 110.4 111.5 112.0 113.0 112.4 113.6 115.5
0.1 -5.2 -6.2 -9.8 -13.3 -17.0 -15.7 -15.1 -14.3 -16.4 -14.6 -7.8
112.1 109.9 116.7 117.1 117.6 119.2 117.9 117.0 121.8 119.3 119.3 131.6
-1.6 0.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.2 2.6 1.2 1.6 4.5 2.3 4.2 7.7
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
129.3 119.1 141.1 140.0 140.0 142.9 143.1 136.5 137.3 145.3 145.3 149.2
37.0 18.3 22.4 19.5 20.6 16.5 14.8 15.9 2.9 13.4 11.2 10.7
123.1 113.6 135.2 134.7 133.4 137.3 135.7 131.0 131.4 140.8 141.4 143.9
31.4 13.3 18.8 16.5 17.2 13.9 13.0 15.3 2.4 13.5 11.7 10.6
119.8 123.3 124.6 126.3 129.9 129.7 134.1 134.5 134.6 133.5 132.8 135.6
-3.3 4.8 7.5 12.5 16.5 17.5 20.3 20.1 19.1 18.8 16.9 17.4
118.5 116.7 124.4 121.5 123.3 124.0 122.4 120.9 121.6 123.2 123.8 134.9
5.7 6.2 6.6 3.8 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 -0.2 3.3 3.8 2.5
146.9 130.0 153.4
13.6 9.2 8.7
141.4 125.3 149.4
14.9 10.3 10.5
135.4 137.3 136.8
13.0 11.4 9.8
124.1 116.8 127.7
4.7 0.1 2.7
2011
1 2P 3P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
May 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
119.3 127.9
3.5 7.2
93.8 102.1
-3.5 8.8
74.4 81.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2009 2010 2009
I II III IV
117.0 118.0 120.1 122.2
2.8 2.5 3.5 5.0
81.7 95.3 97.8 100.3
-17.7 -7.6 2.4 10.1
67.0 74.3 77.8 78.4
2010
I II III IV
124.3 126.5 129.5 131.3
6.2 7.2 7.8 7.4
97.4 105.6 99.6 105.6
19.2 10.8 1.8 5.3
80.4 82.3 81.2 80.8
132.6
6.7
100.0
2.7
83.2
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.9 116.9 117.1 117.7 117.7 118.5 119.3 119.8 121.1 121.6 121.9 123.1
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.5
73.7 79.8 91.6 94.1 93.3 98.4 98.8 91.0 103.6 99.1 100.5 101.2
-28.6 -10.8 -12.8 -10.1 -9.7 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 9.6 -4.8 12.4 27.0
63.7 67.3 70.0 72.5 73.7 76.6 77.7 76.4 79.3 77.8 78.0 79.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.6 123.9 125.3 125.5 126.5 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.1 132.1
5.7 6.0 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.3
97.1 88.4 106.7 106.1 103.8 107.0 105.3 96.2 97.2 106.6 105.4 104.9
31.8 10.8 16.5 12.8 11.3 8.7 6.6 5.7 -6.2 7.6 4.9 3.6
79.3 80.5 81.5 81.7 82.1 83.1 82.7 79.7 81.2 79.7 80.5 82.2
2011 1 2P 3P
132.2 132.4 133.3
7.0 6.9 6.4
102.5 89.7 107.9
5.6 1.5 1.1
84.8 82.4 82.5
2011
IP
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100) Consumer goods sales index
Period
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
113.6 121.1
2.7 6.6
136.8 157.2
8.2 14.9
106.3 113.5
1.3 6.8
111.3 113.7
1.2 2.2
2009
I II III IV
106.5 113.4 111.9 122.4
-4.5 1.5 2.8 10.9
114.7 142.0 135.5 155.1
-11.7 5.9 7.7 34.1
103.1 107.7 94.3 120.2
-0.5 0.5 0.3 4.5
107.7 109.2 114.3 113.9
-1.4 0.4 1.8 4.0
2010
I II III IV
116.8 118.9 120.3 128.6
9.7 4.9 7.5 5.1
148.7 149.9 158.5 171.6
29.6 5.6 17.0 10.6
105.7 114.4 100.5 133.6
2.5 6.2 6.6 11.1
111.1 112.8 117.7 113.1
3.2 3.3 3.0 -0.7
122.5
4.9
167.7
12.8
112.0
6.0
111.8
0.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 101.2 109.7 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.8 106.7 118.2 120.6 119.6 127.1
-2.9 -5.7 -4.9 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.1 0.5 6.8 9.9 9.8 12.8
104.1 116.0 124.0 123.9 144.0 158.0 138.2 122.5 145.9 144.8 153.5 167.1
-18.9 -1.5 -13.6 -10.9 5.9 24.3 -1.8 0.8 26.6 16.9 41.0 46.1
103.6 97.1 108.5 109.3 113.3 100.4 95.4 86.5 101.1 116.1 121.8 122.6
-0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.3 3.1 4.0 1.2 8.4
114.8 99.2 109.2 106.8 113.1 107.6 110.8 112.9 119.3 116.6 109.2 116.0
5.5 -8.5 -1.2 -2.5 0.7 3.0 4.4 0.8 0.4 9.4 1.4 1.5
2010
115.8 114.2 120.3 116.5 121.2 118.9 120.7 116.7 123.5 125.5 127.8 132.6
6.7 12.8 9.7 7.3 3.6 3.8 8.9 9.4 4.5 4.1 6.9 4.3
145.5 141.3 159.2 144.6 147.0 158.1 164.0 154.4 157.0 165.2 172.1 177.4
39.8 21.8 28.4 16.7 2.1 0.1 18.7 26.0 7.6 14.1 12.1 6.2
108.4 99.6 109.1 113.1 120.7 109.3 103.5 90.2 107.7 130.0 133.4 137.3
4.6 2.6 0.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 8.5 4.3 6.5 12.0 9.5 12.0
108.7 112.1 112.6 110.4 116.0 112.1 115.1 116.4 121.6 111.1 111.9 116.2
-5.3 13.0 3.1 3.4 2.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.9 -4.7 2.5 0.2
128.1 113.3 126.2
10.6 -0.8 4.9
165.9 154.2 183.0
14.0 9.1 14.9
120.4 101.6 114.1
11.1 2.0 4.6
118.9 104.3 112.2
9.4 -7.0 -0.4
2011
2011
IP
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2P 3P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
May 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Period
2009 2010
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
116.4 122.0
1.4 4.8
135.1 139.6
6.5 3.3
108.9 115.0
-0.9 5.6
-
2009
I II III IV
107.7 114.8 119.9 123.3
-8.3 -0.8 5.4 10.2
113.4 139.9 139.4 147.8
-14.9 2.5 13.3 29.2
105.3 104.7 112.0 113.4
-5.2 -2.5 1.7 2.2
-
2010
I II III IV
118.5 119.9 122.0 127.6
10.0 4.4 1.8 3.5
136.7 139.5 139.2 142.9
20.5 -0.3 -0.1 -3.3
111.2 112.1 115.1 121.6
5.6 7.1 2.8 7.2
-
120.8
1.9
135.2
-1.1
115.0
3.4
-
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.6 103.8 111.7 112.6 113.5 118.4 119.0 110.9 129.7 121.7 118.5 129.6
-14.2 -2.5 -7.4 -6.0 -1.9 6.0 1.0 -0.7 15.8 1.7 10.7 18.8
99.0 115.5 125.7 120.6 140.7 158.4 146.3 125.8 146.1 139.5 146.7 157.1
-25.3 -6.2 -12.8 -16.4 2.8 23.3 8.9 6.1 25.8 9.2 32.2 50.5
111.0 99.0 106.0 109.3 102.6 102.3 108.0 104.9 123.1 114.5 107.2 118.6
-9.4 -0.8 -4.6 -0.7 -4.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 11.6 -1.8 1.7 6.8
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.7 110.3 121.6 120.5 117.5 121.8 121.9 120.5 123.6 129.3 128.3 125.3
15.0 6.3 8.9 7.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 8.7 -4.7 6.2 8.3 -3.3
136.0 129.7 144.5 135.4 135.3 147.7 145.6 133.9 138.0 145.7 144.7 138.4
37.4 12.3 15.0 12.3 -3.8 -6.8 -0.5 6.4 -5.5 4.4 -1.4 -11.9
118.8 102.6 112.3 114.6 110.4 111.4 112.4 115.2 117.8 122.8 121.8 120.1
7.0 3.6 5.9 4.8 7.6 8.9 4.1 9.8 -4.3 7.2 13.6 1.3
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 110 109
2011 1 2P 3P 4P
129.6 106.2 126.6 -
4.8 -3.7 4.1 -
133.0 126.2 146.5 -
-2.2 -2.7 1.4 -
128.2 98.2 118.5 -
7.9 -4.3 5.5 -
108 105 98 100
2011
IP
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
23,360
2,330
21,030
12,279
133.2
135.0
5,544 6,247 5,662 5,908
525 402 380 1,023
5,019 5,845 5,282 4,885
2,910 3,564 3,026 2,779
120.5 137.5 139.1 135.6
116.7 144.2 136.2 142.8
6,623
471
6,153
3,742
128.5
133.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,767 1,641 2,135 1,843 2,189 2,214 2,092 1,710 1,860 1,719 1,770 2,418
169 107 249 127 115 160 105 106 169 101 102 820
1,598 1,534 1,886 1,716 2,074 2,055 1,987 1,604 1,691 1,618 1,668 1,599
1,008 880 1,022 1,054 1,329 1,180 1,068 897 1,061 964 981 834
103.7 112.8 145.1 132.9 132.4 147.2 139.1 140.8 137.5 130.8 134.7 141.2
108.3 102.7 139.1 139.4 140.9 152.2 138.6 132.8 137.1 134.8 136.7 156.9
2011 1 2P 3P
2,115 2,070 2,438
116 122 233
2,000 1,948 2,205
1,156 1,148 1,438
125.7 114.4 145.5
127.6 124.3 148.4
2010 2010
2011
I ll III IV IP
Manufacturing
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010
11.2
-37.9
21.8
32.3
25.1
22.5
10.3 24.7 -0.2 11.3
-43.7 -42.2 -71.7 31.4
22.6 35.5 22.0 7.8
45.6 58.5 27.4 4.5
30.0 29.5 29.3 13.6
18.1 25.7 27.4 18.4
19.5
-10.3
22.6
28.6
6.6
14.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11.8 -2.0 20.6 27.2 56.3 2.6 -16.5 26.6 2.3 9.9 -9.2 34.9
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 19.6 -68.6 -90.2 48.9 -15.5 20.8 -76.5 213.9
18.5 32.8 18.7 26.4 59.1 24.4 38.7 25.3 4.5 9.3 10.0 4.3
39.4 66.8 36.7 57.1 101.1 28.8 41.8 37.1 9.6 13.2 4.2 -3.7
26.3 23.7 38.3 32.5 28.4 27.7 31.5 41.2 17.1 21.6 13.1 7.4
27.6 5.2 22.1 24 32.1 21.8 28.1 36.9 18.8 25 19.5 12.4
2011
19.7 26.1 14.2
-31.5 14.0 -6.3
25.1 27.0 16.9
14.6 30.4 40.8
22.2 1.4 0.3
17.8 21.0 6.7
2010
2011
I ll III IV IP
1 2P 3P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
May 2011
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
2011 2010
2011
Private
Public
Private
35,163
52,777
88,675
29,013
54,628
20,329 24,082 22,005 25,823
7,467 9,129 7,784 10,784
11,977 13,931 13,160 13,708
18,110 25,295 19,095 26,175
7,955 6,890 6,814 7,355
9,087 16,737 11,406 17,399
18,980
7,271
10,793
15,796
4,053
10,743
6,496 6,145 7,687 7,354 7,741 8,986 7,453 7,150 7,401 7,356 8,041 10,426
2,257 2,303 2,908 2,628 2,841 3,660 2,690 2,460 2,634 2,856 3,278 4,650
3,972 3,614 4,391 4,460 4,537 4,934 4,419 4,370 4,371 4,135 4,401 5,173
7,043 4,752 6,314 6,636 8,717 9,941 7,475 4,145 7,475 4,415 7,551 14,209
2,410 2,170 3,375 1,829 1,672 3,388 3,903 1,327 1,584 1,185 2,023 4,146
4,274 2,232 2,582 4,456 6,652 5,629 3,351 2,698 5,355 3,111 5,217 9,071
6,157 5,277 7,546
2,415 2,047 2,809
3,476 2,991 4,327
4,658 4,959 7,179
1,295 1,396 1,362
2,697 2,445 5,601
92,238 I ll llI lV IP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2P 3P
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Public
2010 2010
Type of order
Value of construction completion (total)
Y-o-Y change (%) 2010 2010
2011 2010
2011
I ll llI lV IP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2P 3P
2.7
8.5
0.5
-18.7
-43.7
2.8
6.3 2.0 -0.4 3.3
13.8 5.5 -1.1 15.9
3.8 2.6 1.0 -4.8
-1.6 -6.7 -3.6 -40.2
-14.9 -61.9 -22.0 -52.1
8.0 105.4 13.2 34.4
-6.6
-2.6
-9.9
-12.8
-49.1
18.2
7.2 0.8 10.5 -1.0 7.3 0.2 6.7 6.5 -11.8 0.9 -0.5 8.2
5.1 12.9 22.2 -0.1 9.6 6.7 14.0 1.4 -14.6 10.5 17.1 18.6
9.6 -3.5 5.3 1.0 7.8 -0.3 3.9 11.2 -9.8 -4.8 -9.4 -0.5
20.2 -4.6 -16.5 -14.1 17.4 -16.9 25.6 -12.5 -18.1 -58.8 -48.7 -22.5
-11.5 -22.2 -11.9 -68.7 -62.9 -56.0 23.5 -26.2 -58.0 -75.0 -61.4 -22.8
49.2 8.0 -25.8 178.8 138.3 49.8 38.3 -5.0 11.4 -45.7 -41.2 -23.9
-5.2 -14.1 -1.8
7.0 -11.1 -3.4
-12.5 -17.3 -1.5
-33.9 -16.7 13.7
-46.3 -35.7 -59.6
-36.9 9.5 117.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.0 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.7
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.4
110.9 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.3
101.4 101.4 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.4 102.2 102.5 102.7 103.2
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.1 114.9 114.8 114.2 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.5 111.3 110.5
6.5 5.1 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -3.1 -3.9
119.3 119.6 119.9 119.9 120.0 119.8 119.8 120.0 120.3 120.3 118.8 116.1
103.7 103.5 103.4 102.9 102.6 102.0 101.5 101.3 101.1 100.6 99.0 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.9 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 126.4 127.2
-3.6 -2.4 -1.3 0.5 2.6 5.4 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.7 12.0
114.1 114.1 115.3 117.1 118.1 120.4 121.7 122.7 123.5 124.4 125.2 125.8
94.3 93.9 94.5 95.5 96.0 97.4 98.0 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.2 99.2
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.5 127.0 127.1 126.9 127.3 127.7 128.4 128.8 128.8 128.4 128.7 129.3
11.6 10.4 9.6 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9
126.6 127.8 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.4 132.4 132.6 132.2 131.8 132.1 133.1
99.5 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.8
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5
130.1 129.8 129.4 -
3.0 2.4 1.6 -
135.1 135.3 135.8 -
100.8 100.6 100.5 -
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 -
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
May 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Current balance
Period
2009 2010P
Goods trade balance
Exports
32,790.5 28,213.6
37,866.0 41,904.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
358,189.7 464,286.9
320,323.7 422,383.1
-6,640.5 -11,229.4
2,276.7 768.4
-711.7 -3.229.4
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III IV
263.3 8,857.9 9,931.1 9,161.3
4,785.4 12,240.4 12,542.3 12,335.9
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,257.3 127,090.1
96,569.1 105,344.7 105,715.1 114,754.2
-4,201.1 -1,873.1 -2,954.6 -2,200.6
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.1 -67.6
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7 -906.4
2011P
I
2,715.3
5,948.1
127,700.0
121,751.9
-2,538.0
387.9
-1,082.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,998.9 4,330.0 4,457.9 1,975.7 3,497.5 5,112.5 1,934.4 2,114.4
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,658.4 4,841.9 5,268.9 2,826.0 4,447.4 5,484.9 3,170.8 3,680.2
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,903.4 39,223.8 42,012.2 41,939.6 43,138.3
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,591.7 35,306.3 35,861.3 35,077.4 34,776.4 36,527.3 38,768.8 39,458.1
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 147.4 -751.6 -859.3 -902.5 -1,192.8 -749.9 -304.5 -1,146.2
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2 -34.5
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7 -385.1
2011P 1 2 3
154.7 1,126.1 1,434.5
1,557.9 1,530.8 2,859.4
42,662.8 37,228.3 47,809.2
41,104.9 35,697.2 44,949.8
-1,640.9 -569.1 -328.0
703.7 542.6 -858.4
-466.0 -378.2 -238.5
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
289.6 -174.2
-68,666.4 -27,094.5
1,860.7 -2,882.1
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
746.6 -983.9 -388.6 618.5
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3 -5,443.2
-175.6 27.1 31.1 -56.8
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5 -2,487.7
-108.0 241.1 -2,251.5 -763.7
-1,379.1
730.3
6,226.0
-181.4
-3,479.2
64.4
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -2,191.7 -336.2
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8 -1,610.0
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 2,227.2 -2,412.2
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9 511.2
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -1,494.4 1,268.0
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.6
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.0 -2,879.6 -2,658.6 -1,719.3 1,890.2
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,612.6 -200.7 -929.5 -554.0 -768.2 757.2 257.3 -1,778.2
-1,282.0 -1,996.2 498.5
-1,725.4 -1,635.1 -1,335.8
904.6 -3,004.0 720.3
569.3 -363.3 524.3
1,773.3 5,126.9 -674.2
-120.7 -32.7 -28.0
-2,683.1 -2,088.0 1,291.9
1,127.3 870.1 -1,933.0
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2009 2010P
-34,651.2 -25,331.5
-14,948.0 -19,379.7
49,727.7 38,552.4
-3,093.0 -7.4
2,038.9 -17,228.1
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
2010P I II III IV
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6 -8,397.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4 -8,290.7
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1 7,262.3
2011P I
-2,779.7
-4,696.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011P 1 2 3
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
May 2011
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2009 2010
112.8 116.1
113.6 118.8
112.2 114.3
112.5 114.5
110.9 115.1
111.9 117.0
109.2 106.4
137.7 145.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 111.6 112.4 112.7 112.7 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
110.4 112.1 113.3 113.8 113.6 113.3 113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
111.1 111.2 111.8 112.0 112.0 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
111.1 111.5 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.5 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
109.6 110.3 110.8 111.0 110.1 109.8 111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
110.4 111.5 112.1 112.1 111.0 110.5 112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
111.1 116.5 118.4 112.2 106.3 108.3 109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
138.1 143.5 145.4 134.1 130.0 136.7 136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6 117.8 117.1 117.8
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8 122.1 120.4 121.9
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.0 114.9 115.0
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.6
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 109.6
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 156.1
2011 1 2 3 4
118.9 119.8 120.4 120.4
123.8 125.1 123.1 125.7
115.8 116.4 116.6 116.9
116.3 117.1 117.4 117.6
119.7 120.5 122.0 122.4
122.7 123.9 125.8 126.2
108.6 110.6 113.5 111.8
156.1 160.9 166.5 167.6
2009 2010
2.8 2.9
3.4 4.6
2.4 4.2
-0.2 3.8
-0.5 4.6
-0.2 -2.6
-4.1 5.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.7 4.1 3.9 3.6 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
3.9 5.2 5.8 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
3.7 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
5.2 5.2 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
4.7 4.4 3.5 1.5 -1.3 -3.1 3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
5.7 5.5 4.3 1.6 -1.9 -4.3 -5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
18.6 22.9 17.4 7.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
16.7 18.0 10.6 -1.8 -13.9 -11.9 -12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3 7.2 5.4 6.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 12.7
2011 1 2 3 4
4.1 4.5 4.7 4.2
7.1 7.8 7.9 6.4
2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.6 3.1 3.3 3.2
6.2 6.6 7.3 6.8
7.7 8.2 9.1 8.4
4.9 5.6 9.1 7.7
14.1 16.9 19.6 19.0
Y-o-Y change (%) 3.6 1.8
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2009 2010
24,394 24,748
23,506 23,829
3,836 4,028
17,998 18,214
3.6 3.7
16,454 16,971
9,390 10,086
5,101 5,068
1,963 1,817
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
23,709 23,667 24,062 24,456 24,658 24,927 24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
22,861 22,742 23,110 23,524 23,720 23,967 23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,895 3,842 3,813 3,846 3,846 3,836 3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
17,663 17,539 17,701 17,899 18,016 18,251 18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,053 15,953 16,076 16,353 16,484 16,736 16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,102 9,194 9,174 9,227 9,316 9,340 9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
4,982 4,862 4,941 5,051 5,076 5,281 5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,969 1,897 1,961 2,076 2,092 2,115 1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847 24,538
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109 23,684
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139 4,156
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340 18,272
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300 17,154
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334 10,347
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069 4,999
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898 1,808
2011 1 2 3 4
24,114 24,431 24,918 25,240
23,196 23,336 23,846 24,303
4,148 4,149 4,122 4,108
18,007 3.8 18,019 4.5 18,244 4.3 18,536 3.7 Y-o-Y change (%)
16,832 16,856 17,065 17,357
10,305 10,390 10,543 10,618
4,848 4,781 4,782 4,928
1,680 1,684 1,740 1,812
2009 2010
0.2 1.5
-0.3 1.4
-3.2 5.0
0.5 1.2
-
1.5 3.1
4.3 7.4
0.4 -0.7
-7.4 -7.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-3.2 -4.4 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 -3.9 -4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.3 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
-2.6 -3.8 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 2.9 1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-6.3 -4.1 -5.4 -7.2 -6.2 -4.5 -9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.0
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.3
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.4
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -1.5
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7 -2.2
2011 1 2 3 4
0.1 1.6 2.2 1.5
1.4 2.1 2.0 1.6
5.7 6.7 5.1 2.9
1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4
-
3.3 3.5 2.7 2.1
6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1
-0.3 -1.2 -3.9 -4.3
-2.6 1.6 1.5 -1.3
Source: Statistics Korea
64
May 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2009 2010
61,739.6 67,585.1
357,344.1 399,412.3
1,508,550.4 1,639,675.1
1,937,336.0 2,096,534.8
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
64,040.6 63,061.7 65,669.5 61,379.9 60,082.5 59,530.3 59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
331,358.0 334,521.7 342,777.0 350,446.0 355,922.0 362,111.3 363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,440,275.8 1,457,931.3 1,470,443.1 1,482,009.7 1,491,542.7 1,501,898.3 1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,868,843.3 1,879,102.7 1,889,071.5 1,897,923.7 1,913,084.5 1,925,418.1 1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8 71,472.9
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8 425,673.9
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9 1,682,871.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5 2,154,538.9
2011 1 2 3
73,540.8 75,432.1 73,012.7
429,368.1 432,482.8 430,936.6 Y-o-Y change (%) 16.3 11.8
1,676,448.8 1,674,390.5 1,677,475.9
2,152,814.0 2,148,254.1 2,152,736.5
10.3 8.7
7.9 8.2
2009 2010
18.1 9.5
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
27.4 20.0 32.5 21.1 19.0 16.1 17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
8.3 9.8 14.3 17.4 17.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
12.0 11.4 11.1 10.6 9.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
9.2 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.3 7.0 7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6 14.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8 12.9
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.2
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9
2011 1 2 3
13.0 13.3 11.2
12.6 11.5 11.6
6.5 5.0 4.3
6.6 5.2 4.7
Source: The Bank of Korea
66
May 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2009 2010
1,167.6 1,138.9
1,276.4 1,156.3
1,262.8 1,397.1
1,363.1 1,320.6
1,674.3 1,513.6
1,774.4 1,532.9
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,368.5 1,516.4 1,377.1 1,348.0 1,272.9 1,284.7 1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,346.1 1,429.5 1,462.0 1,341.9 1,258.7 1,261.4 1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,521.0 1,541.1 1,414.8 1,382.9 1,314.1 1,336.3 1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,487.2 1,546.1 1,495.7 1,356.2 1,304.5 1,305.5 1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,768.7 1,930.1 1,816.4 1,786.8 1,772.7 1,809.3 1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,793.8 1,829.9 1,904.0 1,771.6 1,719.1 1,767.8 1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
2011 1 2 3 4
1,114.3 1,127.9 1,107.2 1,072.3
1,120.1 1,118.1 1,122.5 1,086.8
1,356.3 1,351.0 1,376.2 1,304.8
1,514.0 1,549.5 1,563.5 1,591.2
1,495.4 1,524.6 1,572.6 1,569.4
-7.1 -2.5
15.8 -9.4
26.6 -3.1
-5.7 -9.6
10.4 -13.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
45.0 61.8 38.9 34.8 23.4 23.1 23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
42.8 51.3 49.2 36.0 21.4 22.5 24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
71.1 73.2 41.5 43.8 34.5 36.1 39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
70.4 75.6 53.8 40.9 31.2 35.6 40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
26.1 35.6 16.1 14.8 10.8 9.9 11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
29.4 31.1 25.3 13.9 6.5 10.4 10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
2011 1 2 3 4
-3.6 -2.6 -2.1 -3.9
-1.6 -3.4 -1.3 -2.7
5.4 6.3 9.4 10.7
8.7 5.4 9.6 9.2
-6.2 -1.3 3.0 7.6
-8.1 -3.8 1.8 4.5
2009 2010
1,356.6 1,380.7 1,331.9 1,313.8 Y-o-Y change (%) -9.4 10.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Bang, Moon-Kyu (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim, Young-Min (MOSF) Shim, Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee, In-Sook (KDI) Coordinators Kim, Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho, Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho, Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Eli Horn (MOSF) Lee, Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr