Vol. 33 | No. 8
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. External economic situation
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues Outcomes of government plans to further develop the service sector
42
Economic News Briefing
46
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview The Korean economy has stayed on a recovery track with employment improving, while inflation has remained in the four percent range. Employment growth accelerated in June, adding 472,000 jobs, led by service industries, with the employment rate rising year-on-year to 60.3 percent from 59.8 percent, and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent. Consumer price inflation accelerated month-on-month from 4.4 percent to 4.7 percent in July, affected by rising agricultural product prices amid the torrential rain and rebounding petroleum product prices with oil refiners withdrawing temporary price cuts. Meanwhile, core consumer prices continued an upward track from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent, as the prices of processed food and cost of dining out remained strong. Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.7 percent in June, as difficulties disrupting steady supply in automobile and chemical industries were eased. Service output grew 0.9 percent compared with the previous month on the back of wholesale & retail sales continuing an upward track. In June, retail sales rose 1.3 percent month-on-month in line with growing durable goods sales, particularly automobiles. Facilities investment increased 0.5 percent month-on-month in June, thanks to increasing transportation equipment investment. Construction investment gained 14.3 percent from the previous month, as SOC spending was expanded. Exports increased 27.3 percent year-on-year in July backed by brisk vessels, petroleum products and steel products, resulting in a widening trading surplus from US$2.8 billion in the previous month to US$7.2 billion. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose for a second consecutive month in June with most of the index’s components improving. The leading composite index climbed year-on-year for two months in a row, as machinery orders and construction orders increased. Uncertainties surrounding the financial market rose in July, fueled by the possibility of the US failing to reach a debt ceiling agreement amid lingering worries over the European fiscal crisis. While home prices in the Seoul metropolitan area fell slightly with continuing wait-and-see attitudes, rent increased at a faster pace affected by seasonal factors. The Korean government will closely monitor the economic situation, as there are growing external uncertainties such as high oil prices, slowdown in major economies and possible spread of the European fiscal crisis. Under these circumstances, the government will focus on stabilizing prices, with active measures to curb price increases in the short term, particularly following the torrential rain and before Chuseok Holiday, as well as long-term measures to improve the economy’s pricesetting system. On the other hand, the government will renew its efforts to boost domestic demand and restructure the economy so that the economy can enhance job creation capabilities and build a solid ground for sustainable development. Economic Bulletin
3
1. External economic situation Although the recovery of the global economy is continuing, led by developing countries such as China, there is growing concern that the recovery might slow down as economic indicators for the US and other economies have dropped. At an emergency summit on July 21, eurozone leaders agreed on a second rescue package for Greece worth 158.6 billion euros, easier lending terms for Portugal and Ireland, and broader powers for the European Financial Stability Facility. Although concerns over a possible default alleviated following an agreement between the Obama administration and congressional leaders to raise the country’s debt ceiling, S&P downgraded US credit rating from AAA to AA+ on August 5.
US
US economic growth slowed down to 0.4 percent (annualized q-o-q) in the first quarter of 2011 and 1.3 percent in the second quarter. Comparison between preliminary and revised GDP growth rate Preliminary: -0.7 (Q2 2009) 1.6 (Q3) 5.0 (Q4) 3.7 (Q1 2010) 1.7 (Q2) 2.6 (Q3) 3.1 (Q4) 1.9 (Q1 2011) Revised: -0.7 (Q2 2009) 1.7 (Q3) 3.8 (Q4) 3.9 (Q1 2010) 3.8 (Q2) 2.5 (Q3) 2.3 (Q4) 0.4 (Q1 2011)
Industrial production increased 0.2 percent month-on-month in June and retail sales gained 0.1 percent, but in July the ISM manufacturing index and the consumer sentiment index both fell. ISM manufacturing index (base=50) 61.4 (Feb 2011)
61.2 (Mar)
60.4 (Apr)
53.5 (May)
55.3 (Jun)
50.9 (July)
69.8 (Apr)
74.3 (May)
71.5 (Jun)
63.7 (July)
Consumer sentiment index 77.5 (Feb 2011)
67.5 (Mar)
Housing prices continued to fall in May with a drop of 0.1 percent month-on-month based on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and in June existing home sales fell 0.8 percent while new home sales slipped 1.0 percent. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (m-o-m, %) -0.3 (Jan 2011)
-0.3 (Feb)
-0.6 (Mar)
0.4 (Apr)
-0.1 (May)
The recovery of the labor market lost steam in June as non-farm payrolls only climbed by 18,000 month-on-month, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.2 percent. Non-farm payrolls (q-o-q, thousand) 68 (Jan 2011)
235 (Feb)
194 (Mar)
217 (Apr)
25 (May)
18 (Jun) (Percentage change from previous period)
2009
20111
2010
May
Jun
1.3
-
-
2.1
0.1
-
-
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Real GDP 2
-3.5
3.0
3.9
3.8
2.5
2.3
0.4
- Personal consumption expenditur
-1.9
2.0
2.7
2.9
2.6
3.6
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.8
4.4
6.0
18.6
11.3
8.7
2.1
6.3
-
-
- Housing construction investment
-16.0
14.6
-15.3
22.8
-27.7
2.5
-2.4
3.8
-
-
Industrial production
-11.2
5.3
2.0
1.7
1.6
0.8
1.2
0.2
-0.1
0.2
-7.0
6.4
2.1
1.0
0.9
3.0
2.5
1.1
-0.1
0.1
Existing home sales
5.2
-4.5
-12.3
7.5
-25.1
13.8
8.2
-5.4
-3.8
-0.8
Unemployment rate3
9.3
9.6
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.6
8.9
9.1
9.1
9.2
-0.3
1.6
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.7
1.3
0.4
0.2
-0.2
Retail sales
Consumer prices 1. Preliminary
4
2. Annualized rate (%)
August 2011
3. Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Department of Commerce
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
The solid growth of China’s industrial production continued amid rising inflationary pressure as consumption and investment increased. Consumer prices climbed month-on-month in June to 6.4 percent from 5.3 percent in the previous month, as food prices rose following a spike in pork prices. Food prices (y-o-y, %) 10.3 (Jan 2011)
11.0 (Feb)
11.7 (Mar)
11.5 (Apr)
11.7 (May)
14.4 (Jun)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year) Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
20111 Q2 May
11.9
10.3
9.6
9.8
9.7
9.5
-
-
15.7
19.6
16.0
13.5
13.3
14.9
13.9
13.3
15.1
30.5
24.5
26.4
25.5
24.5
24.5
32.5
27.0
34.0
27.0
15.5
23.3
23.7
23.8
23.9
22.0
17.1
18.2
16.9
17.7
-16.0
31.3
28.7
40.9
32.2
24.9
26.4
22.0
19.4
17.9
Consumer prices2
-0.7
3.3
2.2
2.9
3.5
4.7
4.9
5.7
5.5
6.4
Producer prices2
-5.4
5.5
5.2
6.8
4.5
5.7
7.0
6.9
6.8
7.1
2009 Annual
Annual
9.1
10.3
Industrial production2
11.0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated) Retail sales
Real GDP
Exports
Jun
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s production and retail sales grew in June, while its exports slowed down a decline, showing the country’s gradual recovery from the major earthquake earlier this year. The Bank of Japan on July 11 revised downward its economic growth forecast for 2011 from 0.6 percent to 0.4 percent, but maintained its 2.9 percent growth forecast for 2012. (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales (y-o-y) Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
2009 Annual
Annual
-6.3
4.0
-21.9
20111 May Apr
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
1.5
0.5
0.8
-0.3
-0.9
-
-
-
16.4
7.4
0.7
-1.1
-0.1
-2.0
1.6
5.7
3.9
-2.3
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
-0.4
-3.0
-4.8
-1.3
1.2
-33.1
24.4
43.2
33.2
17.8
10.0
2.4
-12.4
-10.3
-1.6
-1.4
-0.7
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.2
Jun
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance
Eurozone
Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in June, exceeding the European Central Bank’s target of 2.0 percent for the seventh consecutive month, as the eurozone recovery lost momentum. The European Banking Authority said on July 15 that its EU-wide stress test found that eight banks fell below the 5 percent Core Tier 1 Ratio threshold, and the total capital shortfall would be 2.5 billion euros. (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
6
August 2011
Source: Eurostat
2009 Annual
Annual
-4.0
1.7
-14.9
20111 May Apr
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
-
-
7.1
2.4
2.4
1.0
1.7
1.1
0.2
0.1
-
-2.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.3
-0.2
0.7
-1.1
-
-18.1
20.1
12.9
22.3
22.8
21.8
21.2
15.0
20.9
-
0.3
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.5
2.8
2.7
2.7
Jun -
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advanced estimates) increased 1.0 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2011. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009
Private consumption
2
(Seasonally adjusted) 3 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
20111
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
0.0
-1.1
0.4
5.6
4.1
6.6
3.5
3.6
2.9
2.8
3.1
-
3.7
1.4
0.9
-
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
1.0
3. Percentage change from previous period
Retail sales in June climbed 1.3 percent month-on-month and 5.6 percent year-on-year, helped by a 3.8 percent improvement in sales of durable goods including a 6.1 percent rise in car sales, while sales of non-durable goods such as gasoline dropped 0.4 percent month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, sales of durable and semi-durable goods expanded 17.2 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, while those of non-durable goods declined 0.7 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales q-o-q - Durable goods2 ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods
4
3
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2.7
6.6
9.7
4.9
7.5
5.1
5.1
5.6
1
May1
Jun1
6.3
5.6
-
-
0.6
-0.1
3.3
0.8
1.1
0.1
1.1
1.3
8.2
14.9
29.6
5.6
17.0
10.6
12.9
17.7
20.0
17.2
21.8
11.1
48.9
-2.1
12.0
0.1
10.2
13.0
13.0
12.2
1.3
6.8
2.5
6.2
6.6
11.1
6.1
5.9
5.2
4.9
1.2
2.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
-0.7
0.8
-0.6
0.3
-0.7
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at large discounters and non-store retailers declined 1.4 percent and 1.0 percent month-on-month, respectively, while those at department stores and specialized retailers climbed 1.7 percent and 1.5 percent, each. On a year-on-year basis, all sales categories of department stores, large discounters, specialized retailers and non-store retailers continued to gain ground. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010
2009
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers - Nonstore retailers
2
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q21
May1
Jun1
4.3
8.8
7.5
9.2
7.4
10.5
11.5
9.7
8.0
7.4
-2.2
4.4
5.4
4.1
7.6
0.8
3.5
5.1
4.3
3.7
3.0
5.6
9.7
1.8
7.3
4.2
4.3
4.8
5.8
5.9
8.7
15.6
20.1
17.9
11.4
13.5
11.5
9.6
11.4
7.1
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
August 2011
2011
Annual
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Sales of consumer goods are expected to grow considering a recovery in employment, which raises purchasing power, and indicators showing positive trends. Employment (y-o-y, thousands) 331 (Jan 2011)
469 (Feb)
469 (Mar)
379 (Apr)
355 (May)
472 (Jun)
The consumer sentiment index exceeded the benchmark of 100 and the consumer spending plan maintained its comparatively high level. Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI, base=100) 108 (Jan 2011)
105 (Feb)
98 (Mar)
100 (Apr)
104 (May)
102 (Jun)
102 (Jul)
Consumer Spending Plan (base=100) 114 (Jan 2011)
112 (Feb)
109 (Mar)
110 (Apr)
110 (May)
109 (Jun)
109 (Jul)
Advanced indicators of department store sales and those of large discounters as well as car sales had been rising. Gasoline sales increased as demand jumped ahead of the end of temporary price cuts by local oil refiners. Credit card use (y-o-y, %) 10.8 (Feb 2011)
13.1 (Mar)
16.3 (Apr)
21.1 (May)
19.8 (Jun)
16.6 (Jul)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 5.2 (Feb 2011)
13.1 (Mar)
15.1 (Apr)
8.7 (May)
8.2 (Jun)
7.7 (Jul)
2.4 (May)
2.7 (Jun)
3.9 (Jul)
-2.6 (May)
-3.4 (Jun)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) -10.9 (Feb 2011)
1.9 (Mar)
4.6 (Apr)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) 5.7 (Feb 2011)
-2.4 (Mar)
-4.7 (Apr)
9.9 (Jul)
Domestic sales of cars (y-o-y, %) 1.1 (Feb 2011)
8.4 (Mar)
3.0 (Apr)
3.7 (May)
6.0 (Jun)
6.1 (Jul)
Consumer goods imports (y-o-y, %) 22.6 (Feb 2011)
32.1 (Mar)
30.0 (Apr)
28.1 (May)
27.2 (Jun)
1. Preliminary Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for July data)
The consumer sales increase in July might be limited, considering reduced outdoor activities due to bad weather conditions, including torrential rains and the rainy season. Although global uncertainties have abated with the recent stabilization of oil prices and easing of concerns over the European financial crisis, they may affect consumer sentiment when they resurface. Dubai crude (US$/barrel) 92.5 (Jan 2011)
10
August 2011
100.2 (Feb)
108.5 (Mar)
115.8 (Apr)
108.0 (May)
107.5 (Jun)
110.2 (Jul)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the second quarter of 2011 increased 4.0 percent quarter-on-quarter and 7.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009
Facility investment
2
q-o-q - Machinery - Transportation equipment
20111
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
-9.8
12.2
25.0
29.1
30.5
26.6
15.9
11.7
7.6
-
7.8
-
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-1.1
4.0
-13.5
10.1
30.8
30.0
35.3
38.9
20.5
13.9
-
2.8
19.1
6.7
24.2
15.6
-6.6
0.6
3.2
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment in June rose 0.5 percent month-on-month and 4.3 percent year-on-year, thanks to the rise in investment in transportation equipment. Facility investment is projected to see a moderate rise given stable corporate confidence and leading indicators showing positive signs, but ongoing external uncertainties surrounding the European debt crisis and the possibility of a US slowdown is likely to limit the gain. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-9.4
25.1
29.5
29.3
13.6
-
-
6.7
7.2
-12.6
30.5
37.1
4.6
4.3
2.8
-10.3
11.2
-
- Public - Private
Q21
Apr
May1
Jun1
6.6
4.6
-0.6
10.1
4.3
-5.4
-0.2
2.8
-5.4
14.1
0.5
37.4
17.1
6.8
6.8
5.1
10.9
4.7
-0.1
-1.2
5.6
-5.7
-26.5
6.5
2.7
24.7
-0.2
11.3
19.5
8.9
6.6
-0.8
20.4
-
15.2
-3.6
4.1
3.6
4.5
-6.4
8.5
11.9
62.4
-37.9
-42.2
-71.7
31.4
-10.3
82.1
-19.6
23.4
205.5
-18.2
21.8
35.5
22.0
7.8
22.7
3.9
8.6
-2.2
6.1
-16.6
40.4
51.3
40.0
26.3
8.0
10.5
3.5
26.9
3.3
Manufacturing operation ratio
-3.5
8.8
10.8
1.8
5.3
2.6
-0.2
-1.4
1.1
-0.4
Facility investment adjustment pressure2
-3.7
9.5
12.1
3.4
4.6
4.1
1.5
0.5
2.6
1.4
Facility investment q-o-q - Machinery - Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders q-o-q
Machinery imports
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
2011
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
August 2011
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
104
102
103
102
103
103
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the second quarter of 2011 fell 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 8.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009
20111
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
3.4
4.0
-1.4
4.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.9
-11.9
-8.6
-
0.7
-
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-6.7
-0.4
- Building construction
-2.3
2.4
-2.9
4.5
-5.1
-6.3
-2.8
-11.3
-
- Civil engineering works
11.6
5.6
0.5
4.0
1.0
1.7
-2.9
-12.7
-
Construction investment2 q-o-q
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
The value of construction completion (constant) in June increased 14.3 percent month-onmonth thanks to a rise in both building construction and civil engineering works, but fell 1.5 percent year-on-year due to a drop in building construction. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q11
Q21
Apr1
May1
Jun1
1.6
-3.3
-4.3
-6.8
-4.3
-12.6
-6.6
-10.1
-9.2
-1.5
-
-
-3.1
-4.3
-1.6
-4.6
3.6
-9.1
3.8
14.3
- Building construction
-6.4
-7.1
-7.7
-12.3
-8.5
-15.2
-8.1
-10.0
-12.0
-2.9
- Civil engineering works
16.1
2.2
0.6
1.9
1.2
-9.2
-4.6
-10.2
-5.4
0.4
5.0
-18.7
-6.7
-3.6
-40.2
-12.8
-3.3
-2.7
-22.5
13.3
-
-
0.2
-1.4
-22.9
12.8
9.8
-9.9
-5.4
37.0
-14.2
-9.9
55.3
-1.3
-46.4
-9.7
-4.0
2.4
-20.5
8.3
44.3
-29.5
-49.7
-7.0
-29.9
-17.0
-1.5
-12.8
-28.4
22.1
-12.9
19.3
47.4
-14.3
18.1
21.5
3.8
0.7
3.5
7.8
Value of construction completion(constant) q-o-q
Construction orders (current value) q-o-q - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment slightly improved in June, with construction orders and other leading indicators turning positive. Still, it is uncertain whether this trend will continue since investment sentiment of construction companies has yet to recover and July and August are traditional off-season particularly due to heavy rain. 2011
Business survey indices (base=100) for construction projections Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
August 2011
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
80.5
59.1
74.6
80.4
76.8
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in July increased 27.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$51.45 billion. Exports on a monthly basis surpassed US$50 billion for the first time, with an average daily exports at a record high of US$2.19 billion. By business category, exports of petroleum products (up 88.6%), steel (up 67.9%), vessels (up 42.6%), and automobiles (up 22.5%) surged while those of semiconductors (down 13.3%) decreased due to a drop in unit prices. By regional category, exports to the ASEAN countries (up 56.8%), Japan (up 38.2%), and China (up 20.7%) jumped, while those to the EU fell, where recovery has been limited with mounting worries over a debt crisis. (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
363.53
466.38
101.08
120.24
116.32
128.75
131.00
143.82
47.76
51.45
-13.9
28.3
35.8
33.1
22.7
23.8
29.6
19.6
13.6
27.3
1.30
1.70
1.51
1.76
1.72
1.79
1.99
2.10
2.08
2.19
323.08
425.21
98.16
105.63
105.70
115.73
123.64
134.44
44.94
44.22
-25.8
31.6
37.4
42.8
24.6
24.6
25.9
27.3
27.4
24.8
11.6
1.46
0.47
1.54
1.57
1.61
1.87
1.96
1.95
1.88
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in July increased 24.8 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$44.22 billion. Year-on-year imports soared, while on a month-on-month basis, imports and daily imports slightly fell mainly due to decreasing terminal prices of oil. (thousand) 2011
Terminal prices of oil (US$ per barrel)
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul1
105.0
114.2
116.5
114.0
111.8
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
The current account balance in July posted a record high surplus of US$7.22 billion. (US$ billion) 2009
Trade Balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
August 2011
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
40.45
41.17
2.93
14.61
10.62
13.02
7.37
9.37
2.82
7.22
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in June rose 0.7 percent month-on-month and 6.4 percent year-on-year, backed by brisk exports and with difficulties related to supply in automobile and chemical industries eased. By business category, automobiles (up 10.1%) and chemical products (up 7.4%) increased month-on-month, while semiconductors and parts (down 3.7%) and primary metals (down 2.2%) went down. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio increased month-on-month in two months, as the increase in inventory (up 2.2%) outpaced that in shipments (up 1.1%). By business category, the shipments of automobiles (up 8.7%) and machinery (up 2.8%) increased month-on-month, while those of semiconductors and parts (down 2.6%) and primary metals (down 1.3%) declined. The inventories of refined petroleum (up 15.7%) and automobiles (up 5.6%) climbed month-on-month, while those of groceries (down 1.6%) and machinery (down 0.9%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector gained 1.1 percentage points to 82.5 percent, 4.2 percentage points higher than the average of 78.3 percent between 2000 and 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010
Mining and manufacturing activity2
Apr
May1
Jun1
Q2
Jun
Q1
Q2
-
4.2
1.2
6.1
-0.1
-1.7
1.6
0.7
Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
2011 1
(y-o-y)
16.2
18.8
16.5
10.6
7.1
6.9
8.1
6.4
- Manufacturing
16.7
19.3
16.9
10.9
7.3
7.1
8.3
6.4
∙ICT 3
25.2
26.7
22.3
14.3
10.5
12.4
12.4
7.0
∙Automobiles
23.1
32.1
25.0
16.1
12.1
8.3
10.7
17.0
Shipment
14.4
15.9
13.9
11.9
7.0
7.3
8.1
5.6
- Domestic demand
11.5
13.3
10.2
7.2
3.5
2.2
5.3
3.0
- Exports
18.2
19.5
19.4
18.4
11.7
14.5
11.7
9.0
17.4
17.5
17.5
10.3
9.9
8.7
8.1
9.9
81.2
82.3
83.1
83.1
81.4
80.4
81.4
82.5
7.2
7.2
7.5
6.8
5.8
6.6
5.7
5.0
Inventory
4
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity 1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity, and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to stay on a recovery track with favorable export situations, unless external situations significantly aggravate. Exports (y-o-y, %) 16.5 (Feb 2011)
28.8 (Mar)
23.6 (Apr)
22.0 (May)
13.6 (Jun)
27.3 (Jul)
However, with a possibility that the recovery of major economies might slow down as is shown in the OECD leading indicators, it is necessary to keep a close watch on how the global economic situation will develop. OECD leading indicators (base=100) 102.8 (Jan 2011)
18
August 2011
102.9 (Feb)
102.9 (Mar)
102.8 (Apr)
102.5 (May)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Despite sluggish hotels & restaurants, real estate & renting, service activity in June increased 0.9 percent from the previous month, helped by wholesale & retail sales and educational services. On a year-on-year basis, service activity rose 3.6 percent. Service activities in wholesale & retail sales (up 1.6%) expanded month-on-month, helped by increased car sales. Information & communication services (up 3.9%) and educational services (up 2.3%) also increased. With continuing sluggish performance in real estate & renting (down 4.4%), contracting for five consecutive months, service activities in restaurants & hotels (down 1.3%) slowed down due to limited outdoor activities affected by the rainy season and torrential rains. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight Service activity index
2009
2010
Annual Annual
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
May1
Jun1
100.0
1.8
3.9
6.2
4.2
2.3
3.2
2.7
3.4
3.4
3.6
- Wholesale & retail sales
21.8
-0.4
5.7
7.4
5.6
5.0
4.7
4.0
4.8
5.7
4.7
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6
12.0
14.1
14.3
10.1
10.0
7.2
3.2
3.1
2.8
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.4
1.2
1.2
0.7
1.3
1.7
-0.6
1.8
3.0
1.5
- Information & communication services
8.4
0.9
1.9
1.0
0.4
2.2
3.6
3.9
3.0
1.6
5.6
15.3
7.8
4.6
6.7
2.5
1.4
8.2
7.2
8.9
9.0
8.6
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
-8.6
11.5
-2.4
-15.9
-24.2
-17.7
-11.2
-12.7
-4.0
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.2
-0.5
0.8
2.1
-3.9
-1.3
-3.6
-1.6
-1.2
-4.9
- Business services
2.9
-3.0
7.5
5.3
8.1
7.6
8.6
5.7
5.2
4.6
4.5
10.8
2.1
2.0
3.2
1.4
0.5
3.1
1.1
0.2
-0.8
0.7
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
8.8
11.7
11.0
8.6
4.6
6.2
5.0
5.6
4.8
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
-0.4
-3.9
-0.1
-0.4
2.7
2.4
1.1
-0.7
1.3
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.1
4.3
1.6
6.0
5.0
4.5
2.9
2.1
2.4
1.8
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
5.1
6.7
6.0
1.7
6.4
0.0
-3.1
3.3
-9.1
- Financial & insurance services
- Educational services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service activity is expected to maintain an upward trend in July helped by continuously improving consumer spending. Nevertheless, the upward pace may decelerate in wholesale & retail sales and restaurants & hotels due to limited outdoor activities affected by bad weather conditions such as the rainy season and heavy rainfall.
20
August 2011
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
June 2011 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in June increased by 472,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 60.3 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the number of workers on payroll rose by 48,000 (seasonally adjusted), continuing to increase for the fifth consecutive month. By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 118,000) and services (up 436,000) continued to grow. Hiring in manufacturing continued to climb on the back of strong exports, maintaining a rapid increase pace of more than 100,000 for the 16th consecutive month for the first time since November 2000. The service sector continued to expand employment with increasing health & welfare (up 186,000), professional, scientific & technical services (up 74,000) and business assistance (up 82,000). In addition, wholesale & retail sales (up 96,000) and transportation services (up 79,000) contributed to the increase. By status of workers, the number of regular workers (up 627,000) continued to increase. Meanwhile, non-wage workers (down 17,000) including temporary workers (down 159,000), daily workers (down 99,000) and self-employed workers (down 53,000) continued to decline.
2009 Annual Number of employed (million)
Q3
2010 Q4
Annual
Jun
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
May Jun
Q1
Q2
23.51 23.75 23.63 23.83 24.28 23.04 24.17 24.12 23.99 24.66 24.75 23.46 24.57
Employment rate (%)
58.6
59.1
58.7
58.7
59.8
57.0
59.6
59.3
58.9
60.1
60.3
57.4
59.9
(seasonally adjusted)
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.7
58.8
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
59.2
59.3
58.8
59.2
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-72
-1
-6
323
314
132
433
369
358
355
472
423
402
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
-34
24
110
405
353
296
518
414
393
382
501
451
39
-126 -143
- Manufacturing
-49
191
181
61
172
262
269
101
118
228
112
- Construction
-91 -103 -107
33
67
-61
44
92
57
-27
-42
-3
-41
- Services
179
261
261
200
126
313
325
83
80
260
436
224
331
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-38
-25 -116
-82
-39 -164
-85
-45
-35
27
-29
-28
3
- Wage workers
247
356
385
517
457
371
623
541
532
372
527
519
421
∙Regular workers
383
386
515
697
750
651
766
671
699
630
627
605
621
22
125
105
-34 -116
-37
42
-26 -114 -159
-33
-88 -137
∙Temporary workers ∙Daily workers - Non-wage workers ∙Self-employed workers
-158 -155 -235 -146 -177 -243 -185 -104
-53
-99
-66
2
-63
-319 -357 -391 -194 -143 -239 -189 -172 -174
-17
-55
-96
-19
-85 -106
-91 -130 -146
-49
-53 -115
-39
31
34
89
181
109
117
188
207
212
171
265
266
221
-103
-34
-94
142
205
15
245
163
146
184
207
157
181
- 15 to 29
-127 -123
-77
-43
-86
-12
-58
-44
-57
-98
-52
-49
-74
- 30 to 39
-173 -169 -149
-4
-27
-42
-13
21
17
-15
-7
-34
-13
- Male - Female
-259 -276 -279 -118
- 40 to 49
-24
-30
-46
29
24
-21
48
40
50
64
73
77
59
- 50 to 59
198
211
230
294
332
251
342
295
287
274
306
286
294
54
109
37
47
70
-44
114
57
60
129
152
143
137
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
August 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in June decreased by 38,000 year-on-year to 839,000 and the year-on-year unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) dropped 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) declined 0.3 percentage points to 3.3 percent and the number of unemployed persons (seasonally adjusted) decreased by 69,000 to 840,000, turning back to the normal level. The youth unemployment rate fell 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 7.6 percent. In seasonally adjusted terms, the youth unemployment rate went down 0.3 percentage points to 7.4 percent, falling for the third consecutive month.
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Jun
Number of unemployed (thousand)
889
886
817
920
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
119
134
60
31
- Male
80
95
25
- Female
40
39
36
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Jun
Q1
878 1,130
868
873
808
819
-83
222
-75
-13
-10
26
-38
-101
-3
-7
-51
83
-47
-48
-16
-10
-59
-70
-32
38
-32
139
-29
35
6
36
21
-32
29
839 1,028
Q2
865
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.7
3.5
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.3
4.2
3.4
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.7
3.5
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.9
3.4
- 15 to 29
8.1
8.1
7.6
8.0
8.3
9.5
7.7
7.6
7.1
7.3
7.6
8.8
7.9
- 30 to 39
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.4
4.0
3.5
- 40 to 49
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.5
2.1
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.5
2.0
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.9
2.7
2.0
- 60 or more
1.6
1.6
1.5
2.8
2.0
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.2
2.2
4.5
2.3
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in June was up 26,000 from a year earlier to 15,440,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 62.4 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to rest, time-off and leisure (up 125,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to old age (down 34,000), housework (down 19,000), childcare (down 15,000) and education (down 14,000) decreased.
2009 Annual
Q3
2011
2010 Q4
Annual
Jun
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Jun
Q1
Q2
Economically inactive population (million) 15.70 15.53 15.83 15.84 15.42 16.25 15.49 15.66 15.96 15.52 15.44 16.39 15.56 Labor force participation rate (%)
60.6
61.3
60.7
61.0
62.0
59.8
61.8
61.5
60.8
62.1
62.4
59.9
62.0
(seasonally adjusted)
60.6
60.9
60.6
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.1
60.8
61.3
61.3
61.1
61.3
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
447
374
456
143
264
166
146
128
133
89
26
138
66
40
19
112 -118 -126 -149 -107
-11
-15
-44
-16
- Housework
148
100
235
201
246
237
175
203
189
34
-19
130
27
- Education
31
11
-36
12
29
-74
23
46
55
-65
-14
-16
-39
- Old age
88
105
92
80
53
193
59
43
25
-60
-34 -103
-58
123
94
123
-56
45 -187
-27
15
-27
188
125
163
- Childcare
- Rest, time-off and leisure Source: Statistics Korea
24
August 2011
15 -125
241
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock price index rose 1.5 percent month-on-month in June, shifting to a rise for the first time in three months. Although the Korean stock market mixed due to concerns over financial stability of the US and Europe, the shares rose after the announcement of the second rescue package for Greece. The index then fell to wrap up the month to a minimal increase, weighed down by uncertainties over the US debt negotiations. Foreign investors turned to a net-buying position of 1.2 trillion won in July from the previous month’s net-selling of 0.7 trillion won. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI
KOSDAQ
June 2011
July 2011
Change1
June 2011
July 2011
Change1
Stock price index
2,100.7
2,133.2
+32.5 (+1.5%)
479.6
536.1
+56.5 (+11.8%)
Market capitalization
1,183.5
1,203.6
+20.1 (+1.7%)
98.2
109.8
+11.6 (+11.8%)
Average daily trade value
6.56
6.60
+0.03 (+0.5%)
1.22
2.10
+0.89 (+73.1%)
Foreign stock ownership
32.2
32.1
-0.1 (-0.3%)
10.9
10.4
-0.5 (-4.3%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in July decreased 13.2 won to wrap up the month at 1,054.5 won from 1,067.7 won at the end of June. The won/dollar exchange rate fell 13.2 won affected by eased concerns over the eurozone’s debt problem after the announcement of the Greek rescue plan and the weak dollar caused by uncertainties over the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling. Due to the flight to safety assets caused by the debt concerns in the US and Europe, the yen rapidly strengthened and the won/100 yen exchange rate rose 32.1 won from the end of the previous month. (End-period) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jun
Jul
Change1
Won/Dollar
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,067.7
1,054.5
7.6
Won/100 Yen
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,328.2
1,360.3
2.4
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
August 2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market The 5-year Treasury bonds yield added 1 basis point in July to 4.02 percent from the previous month’s 4.01 percent. Despite debt concerns in the US and Europe, the Treasury bond yields - most notably those of short-term Treasury bonds - rose, with foreign investors continuing to invest in the Treasury bonds and as expectations over interest rate hike heightened. (End-period)
Call rate (1 day)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
May
Jun
Jul
Change1
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.51
3.03
3.28
3.27
-1
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.80
3.46
3.57
3.59
+2
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.38
3.59
3.76
3.85
+9
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.27
4.33
4.49
4.54
+5
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.08
3.87
4.01
4.02
+1
1. Basis point, changes in July 2011 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in May expanded 3.7 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. Despite credit expansions in the private sector due to rising bank lending, the month-onmonth M2 growth slowed down from the previous month affected by contracted foreign credits due to foreign fund outflows in equity investment. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
M1
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Feb
Mar
2011 Apr
May
May1
-1.8
16.3
11.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
11.2
11.5
11.6
9.6
7.4
424.0
M2
14.3
10.3
8.7
9.4
9.5
8.6
7.4
5.0
4.3
3.9
3.7
1,690.5
Lf 3
11.9
7.9
8.2
8.5
9.1
8.2
7.1
5.2
4.7
4.5
4.44
2,175.64
2
1. Balance at end May 2011, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In June, bank deposits increased while asset management company (AMC) deposits turned to a decrease. While growth in time deposits decelerated due to increased fiscal spending by regional governments, instant access account deposits significantly increased, owing to short-term excess corporate cash inflows. Among asset management company (AMC) deposits, money market funds (MMF) plunged due to withdrawals of funds by banks, affected by banks’ BIS rate management at the halfyear point. Bond-type funds also decreased due to worries over interest rate hike. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2009
2010
Annual
May
Bank deposits
54.8
AMC deposits
-27.6
1. Balance at end June
28
August 2011
2011 Jun
Jun1
Annual
May
Apr
May
10.0
36.9
18.6
12.5
-0.4
6.7
1,068.2
-2.3
-16.7
4.2
-3.2
4.1
-1.9
1,301.0
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in June expanded from the previous month’s US$2.18 billion to US$2.99 billion. The goods account surplus widened to US$3.66 billion from the previous month’s US$1.63 billion, helped by solid exports such as cars, petroleum products and steel products. The service account shifted to a deficit of US$630 million from the previous month’s surplus of US$20 million as the travel account deficit widened and business service payments increased. The primary income account surplus narrowed to US$240 million from the previous month’s US$520 million. Meanwhile, the secondary income account shifted to a deficit of US$280 million from the surplus of US$20 million a month earlier, affected by increased outward remittance. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
May
Jun1
Current account
32.79
28.21
0.26
8.86
9.93
9.16
2.72
6.45
2.18
2.99
- Goods balance
37.87
41.90
4.79
12.24
12.54
12.34
5.95
8.62
1.63
3.66
- Service balance
-6.64
-11.23
-4.20
-1.87
-2.96
-2.20
-2.54
-0.80
0.02
-0.63
- Income balance
2.28
0.77
0.55
-1.01
1.30
-0.07
0.39
-0.82
0.52
0.24
- Current transfers
-0.71
-3.23
-0.87
-0.50
-0.95
-0.91
-1.08
-0.55
0.02
-0.28
Source: The Bank of Korea 1. Preliminary
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in June accelerated the outflow to US$4.64 billion from the previous month’s US$3.96 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -1.28 (Jan 2011)
-2.00 (Feb)
0.52 (Mar)
0.39 (Apr)
-3.96 (May)
-4.64 (Jun)
The direct investment account accelerated the outflow to US$2.14 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$1.25 billion due to increasing overseas direct investment by locals. The portfolio investment account registered a net outflow of US$1.4 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$1.14 billion due to flight to safety assets affected by worries over Greek debt restructuring. The financial derivatives account turned to an outflow of US$50 million from the previous month’s inflow of US$170 million. Meanwhile, the other investment account expanded the outflow to US$1.86 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$820 million due to local banks’ increased overseas borrowing. Despite the widening service account deficit due to overseas travel during summer vacation, the current account surplus in July is expected to increase, helped by the expanding goods account surplus.
30
August 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in July rose 4.7 percent year-on-year and 0.7 percent month-on-month. Prices of agricultural products, especially vegetables, surged. Processed food and oil product prices also continued their upward trend. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 3.8 percent year-onyear and 0.3 percent month-on-month. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 4.8 percent compared with the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2010 Jul
Aug
Sep
2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Month-on-Month (%)
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.2
-0.6
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
Year-on-Year (%)
2.6
2.6
3.6
4.1
3.3
3.5
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.7
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.7
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.8
(m-o-m)
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.3
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
2.7
2.6
4.1
4.8
3.6
3.9
4.7
5.2
4.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
4.8
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices of agricultural products, such as fruits and vegetables, showed strong growth, while those of grain and livestock mostly held steady, either rising or falling slightly. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in July (m-o-m, %) Lettuce (94.4), spinach (71.8), Chinese cabbage (63.9), chicken (8.9), mackerel (3.0), rice (0.1), bean (0.1), pork (-0.5), beef (-0.7), egg (-3.9)
Prices of industrial products continued to rise (0.6%, m-o-m), due to the increase in the prices of oil products and processed food. Despite the price freeze in public utility charges imposed by the central government, overall public service charges rose (0.4%, m-o-m), as a result of higher municipal public utility charges such as metro bus fees (up 3.0%, m-o-m) and subway fees (up 0.3%, m-o-m). Price increases in personal services, which include the cost of dining out, slowed (up 0.2%, m-o-m).
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
0.7
4.0
0.6
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
1.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
Contribution (%p)
0.66
0.37
0.18
0.09
0.02
0.05
0.06
Year-on-Year (%)
4.7
11.2
6.3
13.6
4.2
1.5
3.3
Contribution (%p)
4.75
0.99
1.99
0.81
0.38
0.24
1.16
Source: Statistics Korea
32
August 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices International oil and domestic oil product prices rose in July. International oil prices were slightly higher compared with the previous month, due to decreased US oil inventories and the weak US dollar. US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s inventory report (released on July 20) 350 million barrels (3.73 million barrels less than the previous week)
Yen/dollar exchange rate (end period) 81.52 (Dec 2010)
81.62 (Apr 2011)
80.91 (May)
80.72 (Jun)
77.79 (Jul) (US$/barrel, period average)
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
2011
2010 Annual
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Dubai crude
94.3
61.9
78.1
88.9
100.2
108.5
115.8
108.0
107.5
110.2
Brent crude
97.5
61.7
79.7
91.8
103.9
114.6
123.3
114.3
114.0
116.8
WTI crude
99.9
61.9
79.5
89.2
89.7
103.0
110.0
101.3
96.3
97.3
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel) Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)
Domestic oil product prices increased due to higher international oil prices and the termination of the gasoline price discount by local refineries. (Won/liter, period average) 2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
2011 May
Jun
Jul
Gasoline prices
1,692
1,601
1,710
1,771
1,850
1,939
1,951
1,938
1,915
1,935
Diesel prices
1,614
1,397
1,503
1,570
1,652
1,756
1,793
1,773
1,736
1,754
2010
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of international commodities including non-ferrous metals and grain increased, as a result of the weaker US dollar and prospects of declining inventories. Production losses due to the strikes in Chile’s copper mines, fewer inventories and dollar weakness were among the factors that prompted non-ferrous metal prices to rise. Prices of non-ferrous metals in July (m-o-m, %) Tin (8.5), zinc (6.7), nickel (5.9), electrolytic copper (4.7), aluminum (2.7)
International grain prices rose due to lower than expected stocks and concerns over a bad harvest caused by heat waves in the US. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s report (released on July 12) US corn stocks were estimated to be 870 million bushels, down 130 million from the original market expectation of 1 billion bushels.
Prices of grain in July (m-o-m, %) Raw sugar (13.2), barley (9.5), corn (7.8), soybean (4.9)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2,536
2,079
2,553
3,119
3,323
3,221
3,246
3,128
3,143
3,145
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
34
August 2011
2011
Source: KOREA PDS
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market The upward trend of nationwide apartment sales prices decelerated in July, with prices rising 0.6 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area continued to show a horizontal price movement, falling 0.1 percent from the previous month. Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area showed a persistent upward trend, led by Daejeon (up 2.3%, m-o-m), North Chungcheong Province (up 2.2%, mo-m) and Gangwon Province (up 1.8%, m-o-m). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities climbed 1.4 percent and 1.2 percent each, surpassing the national average.
Nationwide apartment sales prices 2007 2008
(Percentage change from previous period) 2009
2010
Annual Annual Annual
Annual
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2011 May
Jun
Jul
Jul 41 Jul 111 Jul 181 Jul 251
0.6
0.13
Nationwide
2.1
2.3
1.6
2.5
0.6
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.7
Seoul
3.6
3.2
2.6
-2.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.03
Gangnam2
0.5
-1.9
3.9
-1.8
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2 -0.04 -0.06 -0.05 -0.03
Gangbuk3
8.3
9.4
0.9
-2.7
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1 -0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.03
Seoul metropolitan area
4.0
2.9
0.7
-2.9
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01
5 metropolitan cities
-0.6
1.0
2.8
8.7
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.2
1.6
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
1.4
0.31
0.14
0.16
0.35 0.34
0.14
0.29
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental prices in July were up 1.0 percent, accelerating the upward pace from the previous month’s 0.8 percent. Price increases picked up the pace in Seoul (up 1.1%, mo-m), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.9%, m-o-m) and Gyeonggi Province (up 1.0%, m-o-m). Apartment rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (2.3), Seocho (1.2), Songpa (1.0), Gangdong (2.4)
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2009
Annual Annual
Annual Annual
Nationwide
1.9
0.8
Seoul
2.2 0.5
Gangnam2 Gangbuk
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2010
2011 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Jul 41 Jul 111 Jul 181 Jul 251
4.5
8.8
1.1
2.0
2.3
1.6
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.27
0.29 0.29
0.29
-1.8
8.1
7.4
1.1
2.1
1.8
0.7
0.3
0.5
1.1
0.33
0.35 0.33
0.36
-3.6
10.4
8.8
1.3
1.9
1.4
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.2
0.31
0.32 0.34
0.43
4.6
0.5
5.4
5.6
1.0
2.4
2.3
0.8
0.4
0.2
1.0
0.35
0.39 0.32
0.28
Seoul metropolitan area
2.1
-0.4
5.6
7.2
1.0
2.1
2.4
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.28
0.28 0.28
0.31
5 metropolitan cities
1.1
1.6
3.9
12.0
1.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.23
0.26 0.31
0.27
3
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in June decreased 2.5 percent from the previous month’s 48,077 to 46,885. The transactions were up 54.0 percent from 30,454 a year earlier.
Apartment sales transactions 2007
2008
(Monthly average, thousand)
2009
2010
Annual Annual Annual Annual Jun Nationwide
38
39
44
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
36
July 2011
40
30
Jul 32
Aug Sep 31
34
2011 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
41
54
63
45
52
59
Apr May 56
48
Jun 47
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in June rose for the eighth consecutive month (up 0.10%, m-o-m), but were still 1.63 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices were 0.10 percent lower compared with the previous year, but the pace of increase has slightly accelerated nationwide. Month-on-month land prices in Seoul (up 0.07%), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.10%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.14%) and Incheon (up 0.06%) continued to rise. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.10 (Jan 2011)
0.10 (Feb)
0.12 (Mar)
0.11 (Apr)
0.10 (May)
0.10 (Jun)
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.09 percent month-onmonth in June, continuing the upward trend from October 2010. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.07 (Jan 2011)
0.07 (Feb)
0.08 (Mar)
0.07 (Apr)
0.09 (May)
Land prices by region
0.09 (Jun)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Q2
2010
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
2011 Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Nationwide
3.88
-0.31 0.96
0.35 0.88
0.94 1.05
0.70 0.29 -0.05 0.11
0.09
0.09
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
Seoul
5.88
-1.00 1.40
0.68 1.30
0.81 0.53
0.72 0.02 -0.25 0.39
0.12
0.12
0.15
0.12
0.09
0.07
Gyeonggi
4.22
-0.26 1.22
0.37 1.13
1.36 1.49
0.96 0.53 -0.08 0.07
0.08
0.08
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.14
Incheon
4.86
1.37 1.99
0.53 1.16
1.70 1.43
1.08 0.43 -0.10 0.02
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in June recorded 207,000 land lots, down 1.9 percent from the previous month and up 13.2 percent from 183,000 a year earlier. Land transactions were 0.8 percent lower than the most recent five-year June average of 209,000 land lots. Month-on-month land transactions continued to decrease in areas such as Incheon (down 19.8%), Ulsan (down 17.9%), Gyeonggi Province (down 5.3%), and South Chungcheong (down 8.6%).
Land sales transactions 2007
Nationwide
(Land lot, thousand)
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual 1 Annual1 Annual1 Oct
Nov
Dec Annual 1 Jun
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
208
208
203
212
207
241
187
183
181
208
257
191
176
244
226
212
207
Seoul
33
26
22
25
19
21
16
13
14
18
24
18
17
23
19
18
18
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
52
48
58
41
42
40
45
58
46
38
52
46
43
40
Incheon
13
13
10
14
11
12
8
8
8
9
11
8
9
13
11
13
10
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation 1. Monthly average
38
August 2011
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in June increased 1.9 percent month-on-month and 4.2 percent year-onyear, with all sectors, including mining & manufacturing, service, construction and public administration, showing improvements. Contribution to month-on-month industrial output increase (%p) Construction (0.75), service (0.5), public administration (0.44), mining & manufacturing (0.26)
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose for the second consecutive month (up 0.3p) in June. All eight components of the coincident composite index, including the volume of imports and value of construction completion, rose from the previous month. Components of coincident composite index in June (m-o-m) Volume of imports (2.9%), value of construction completion (2.8%), wholesale & retail sales index (0.6%), service activity index (0.4%), mining & manufacturing production index (0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.2%), domestic shipment index (0.1%), manufacturing operation ratio index (0.0%)
The year-on-year leading composite index in June improved for the second consecutive month (up 0.4%p, m-o-m), due to improvements in machinery and construction orders. Among components of the leading composite index, six factors, including the value of construction orders received and the value of machinery orders received, rose while four other factors, such as the indicator of inventory cycle and ratio of job opening to job seekers, dropped. Components of the leading composite index in June (m-o-m) Value of construction orders received (6.0%), value of machinery orders received (4.6%), consumer expectations index (2.2p), value of capital goods imports (1.3%), composite stock price index (0.2%), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.2%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.1%p), net terms of trade index (-0.3%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-1.3%p), indicator of inventory cycle (-1.7%p)
2010
2011
Nov
Dec
Industrial output (m-o-m, %)
0.9
2.8
3.2
(y-o-y, %)
5.4
5.0
8.4
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
Jan
Mar1
Apr1
May1
Jun1
-4.7
2.8
-1.3
1.8
1.9
0.1
3.4
3.2
4.5
4.2
Feb
0.2
0.8
1.5
0.1
0.4
-0.3
0.8
0.8
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
99.5
99.8
100.8
100.6
100.6
99.9
100.3
100.6
(m-o-m, p)
-0.1
0.3
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.7
0.4
0.3
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.2
0.5
0.6
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
0.4
0.5
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.3
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.7
-0.5
0.1
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.4
(m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
40
August 2011
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues Outcomes of Government Plans to Further Develop the Service Sector
Background Service industries are one of the main drivers of Korea’s sustainable growth, as they are at the heart of boosting domestic demand and creating jobs. The Korean government has announced 13 packages of 695 plans between 2008 and 2010 to nurture the service sector. The government measures also include financial support and tax incentives for R&D investment in the service sector, and the forming of think-tanks to support the development of the service sector.
Outcomes of the plans Out of the 695 plans, 433 have been completed while 217 plans are being carried out and the other 45 have been suspended: Of the 45 suspended plans, 20 are under discussion at the National Assembly. The rest of 25 plans have been delayed due to changes in environment, conflicts of interests between ministries, and schedule changes. Major outcomes by category are as follows:
42
August 2011
1. Health and medical services Regulations have been changed to allow sales of some medical supplies outside pharmacies. By the end of November this year, 39,254 medical supplies will be categorized as products that could be sold outside pharmacies and ones that have to be sold at pharmacies. With the introduction of medical tourist visas in May 2009, the number of foreign patients jumped from 27,480 in 2008 to 60,201 in 2009 and to 81,789 in 2010. On top of that, foreign patients treated in hospitals in provinces increased while those treated in hospitals in the Seoul metropolitan area declined between 2009 and 2010, due to local governments’ efforts to develop medical tourism services. 2. Education Five foreign educational institutions have opened their branches in Korea, and the quota for local students has been increased up to 30 percent in 2011 from 10 percent in 2005. The five foreign institutions are Chadwick Songdo International School, the State University of New York at Stoney Brook in Songdo, Shipping and Transport College Korea (STC-Korea) in Gwangyang, FAU Busan Campus, and Lee Academy in Daegu. 3. Tourism Streamlined visa issuance processes for Chinese and East Asian tourists resulted in an increase in tourists from those countries by 2.02 million from China and 310 thousand from the East Asian countries. Affordable and quality accommodations have jumped as government-designated exemplary accommodations increased from 164 in 2008 to 279 in 2010. Through the immigration program for real estate investors, Jeju island has attracted 112.5 billion won and 16 investor immigrants. Regulations on membership for vacation accommodations have been eased to help boost domestic tourism. There has also been deregulation to nurture marine sports and develop marine sports facilities such as ports exclusive for cruise ships. Rules regulating sports stadiums and golf fields have been relaxed, and provincial golf clubs with membership were given tax incentives between 2008 and 2009, contributing to an increase in such golf clubs from 311 in 2008 to 386 in 2010. 4. Broadcasting/communications/contents To promote three dimensional (3D) broadcasting, the government financed broadcasting companies with 2.12 billion won. Regulations on the mobile payment system have been eased to help boost mobile transactions, and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs*) have been introduced in the mobile phone market to promote competition. To nurture the contents industry, the government strengthened copyright protection, lowered market entry barriers, and applied eased ratings on game programs available in the open market. * A mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) provides mobile phone services, but does not have its own licensed frequency allocation of radio spectrum.
Economic Bulletin
43
5. Logistics The government has supported third party logistics companies by providing consulting services as well as tax incentives. 33 companies have been beneficiaries of those supports, and received three years of consulting services from 2008 to 2010. A total of 205.3 billion won worth logistics contracts have been made with third party logistics companies, resulting in the saving of 23 billion won in logistics costs. License certificates have replaced temporary license plates as for cars for export, saving time and efforts to put the plates on the cars and resulting in the saving of 1.2 billion won a year. 6. Social security services/ business support services Social security services have been expanded from 4 services in 2007 to 10 services in 2010 including daycare and pre-pregnancy check-ups, with electronic vouchers available to all registered service providers. Government orders for software have been required to be made separately so that smalland-medium sized enterprises (SMEs) have more chances. Intellectual rights for developed software have been jointly owned by the companies and the government. Meanwhile, between 2004 and 2010, 102 universities have been funded with 3.6 billion won of government support for educating design majors based on market needs. 7. Professional service market Deregulation on professional services such as patent and law corporations and pharmacies has been pursued. Establishing limited corporations by patent and law corporations has been sought, and related bills are to be brought to the National Assembly in November, 2011, with bills concerning the establishment of pharmacies corporations pending in the National Assembly. Less tight requirements of professional carriers for establishing those firms have also been deliberated, and three lawyers with more than 5 years of experience can establish law corporations instead of five lawyers with more than 10 years of experience, if the related bill is passed. 8. Support for service industries Service industries have been given expanded supports equivalent to those given to SMEs including tax incentives, government guarantees and other financial supports. Soap operas, performances, and games as well as films were made eligible for government’s guarantees given to cultural export products in 2009.
Future tasks The government will continue to make efforts for for-profit hospital related bills to be passed in the National Assembly. It will also enact new regulations and revise regulations if they are
44
August 2011
needed to develop medical services: At present law enactment concerning healthcare services and medical bonds, and law revision to facilitate remote treatment are under active discussion. To attract more foreign educational institutions, the Special Free Economic Zone Act needs to be revised so that the institutions’ surplus can be remitted outside the country. The government will renew its efforts for the revised bills to be passed in the August National Assembly, and a new package containing plans to further attract foreign educational institutions will be announced in the third quarter of 2011. For fair and competitive broadcasting industries, changes in acts regulating broadcasting advertising system will continue to be sought, along with law revision to provide a fair ground to outsourced producing companies. Guidelines for government R&D support in the service sector will be released in March 2012, and government certification for qualified service businesses will be expanded with improved practicality.
Economic Bulletin
45
Economic News Briefing
Korea grows 0.8% in Q2 (Advanced) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the previous quarter. From a year earlier, the GDP grew 3.4 percent. On the production side, manufacturing sector expanded by 1.5 percent, led by an increase in general machinery and transport equipment. Service sector grew by 0.1 percent from the previous quarter’s 1.2 percent. Meanwhile, agriculture, forestry & fishery increased by 8.2 percent, recovering from the abnormal cold wave and outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. On the expenditure side, exports rose by 1.8 percent, driven by vessels and telecommunication devices. Private consumption grew by 0.1 percent due to increased expenditures on durable and semi-durable goods. Facility investments increased by 4.0 percent while construction investment decreased by 0.4 percent. Real gross domestic income (GDI) fell by 0.1 percent as terms of trade worsened affected by high oil prices.
46
August 2011
<GDP by production and expenditure*>
(Percentage change from previous period) 20101
2009
20111
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
0.1 (-4.2)2
2.5 (-2.1)
3.4 (1.0)
0.2 (6.3)
2.1 (8.5)
1.4 (7.5)
0.6 (4.4)
0.5 (4.7)
1.3 (4.2)
0.8 (3.4)
1.1
0.0
3.7
0.0
-3.1
-2.5
-2.5
0.2
-4.5
8.2 (0.9)
-3.4
8.4
9.7
-1.1
4.2
4.0
2.3
0.1
3.1
1.5 (7.3)
Construction
3.5
1.3
-1.4
0.5
1.4
-0.1
-1.2
-3.2
-6.1
0.3 (-9.7)
Services3
0.4
1.0
1.1
0.9
1.5
0.2
0.3
1.1
1.2
0.1 (2.7)
-0.3
3.7
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
1.0 (3.1)
2.6
0.8
0.1
-1.1
3.6
0.3
-0.1
-0.4
1.7
0.9 (2.2)
-10.2
6.7
9.1
7.8
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-1.1
4.0 (7.6)
3.9
2.4
-1.2
0.7
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-6.7
-0.4 (-8.6)
Goods exports4
-2.1
13.3
5.4
-1.7
3.0
7.4
2.5
3.0
4.6
1.5 (12.1)
Goods imports4
-6.1
8.1
7.8
-0.4
4.8
7.1
3.6
-0.7
3.1
3.1 (10.0)
0.8
4.8
1.9
1.2
1.6
1.2
0.5
0.3
-0.3
-0.1 (0.4)
GDP Agriculture, forestry and fishery Manufacturing
Private consumption Government consumption Facility investment Construction investment
Gross Domestic Income
*At 2005 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms 3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included. 4. FOB basis
Korea holds a joint press conference for foreign media The Ministry of Strategy and Finance held a news conference for foreign media in coordination with senior officials from the Financial Services Commission, the Financial Supervisory Service, and the Bank of Korea on August 11. The meeting was convened as part of efforts to properly notify Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic situation and to promote the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s resilience to external shock such as the financial woes in the US and Europe. The gathering was attended by local correspondents of foreign press including Bloomberg News, Dow Jones, Financial Times, NHK, etc. The ministry, the two financial regulators and the central bank made it clear that they would take firm actions in response to the recent volatility. The Ministry of Strategy and Finance will continue to rapidly and actively respond to changing global economic conditions.
Economic Bulletin
47
Revision bill of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act The Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (FSCMA) was established in 2007 to promote autonomy and innovation in capital markets. Since the FSCMA took effect in February 2009, however, initially expected effects such as the creation of globally competitive investment banks (IBs) were not brought about due to the global financial crisis. Against this backdrop, the Korean government drafted a revision bill of the FSCMA and made public for 20 days from July 27 to August 16. Key revisions to the FSCMA are as follows: First, to nurture leading investment banks, securities companies that meet certain criteria will be qualified as investment banks or comprehensive financial investment services providers; Second, to further develop asset management business, asset management companies will be required to further protect investors’ rights by exercising their voting rights in accordance with investors’ interests and simplifying the procedures for mergers between small funds; Third, to promote competition and efficiency in the market structure, a license system will be introduced to allow new stock exchanges or an alternative trading system (ATS); Fourth, to diversify listed companies’ funding tools, listed companies will be allowed to issue contingent securities and warrants. In addition, to help general meetings of shareholders to properly function, the “shadow voting” system will be abolished in 2015, and regulations on the granting of a Power of Attorney will be amended; and Fifth, to strengthen regulations on unfair trading practices, price manipulation using unlisted securities or OTC derivatives will be punished with criminal charges if underlying assets of such products are listed securities while acts of market abuse such as scalping will be subject to administrative sanctions.
Macro-prudential Stability Law takes effect from August Starting on August 1, 2011, the Korean government imposes Macro-prudential Stability Levy on non-deposit foreign currency liabilities held by 56 financial institutions including 13 domestic banks and 37 foreign bank branches as well as Industrial Bank of Korea, Korea Eximbank, the Korea Development Bank, Korea Finance Cooperation, Bank of National Agricultural Cooperative Federation and National Federation of Fisheries Cooperation. The levy varies according to debt maturity, i.e., short-term debt is subject to higher levy rate compared with long-term debt as the former poses higher risk than the latter. For instance, the levy of up to 0.5 percent is imposed according to debt maturity, with 0.2 percent for less than one-year ones, 0.1 percent for those between one and three years, 0.05 percent for three to five year debts, and 0.02 percent for more than five year debts. In case of an emergency, however, an extra levy can be imposed for up to 6 months to the total levy of up to 1.0 percent. The first notice of the levy for liabilities between August and December of 2011 will be issued in April 2012.
48
August 2011
FDI rose 23.8% in first half of 2011 Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea maintained strong growth in the first half of 2011, despite risk factors such as the devastating earthquake in Japan, uprising in the Middle East, and concerns over the financial crisis in Europe. FDI inflows during the first six months of 2011 amounted to US$5.37 billion, a 23.8 percent rise from the same period of the previous year. Investment from the advanced economies contributed greatly to the overall growth. FDI from the United States surged 186 percent year-on-year, while investment from Japan and the European Union (EU) increased 43.5 percent and 45.6 percent each. In contrast, FDI inflows from the Middle East fell 58.9 percent, due to the political unrest that weakened investor sentiment in the region. Greenfield investments continued to show strong growth this year, rising 31 percent while cross border M&A activities decreased 2.5 percent. By industry, investments in manufacturing and services both increased, reversing last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trend. Service sector FDI, in particular, expanded 17 percent year-on-year, boosted by investments in finance, insurance and business services. (Notification basis, US$ million, %)
Total FDI Growth rate
2
20071
20081
20091
20101
20111
3,369
4,548
4,644
4,333
5,365
-31.5
34.9
2.1
-6.7
23.8
1. First half of the year 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year
FSC releases report on microfinance services The Financial Services Commission (FSC) released on July 14 a report assessing the current situation of lending programs for low-income households, and outlining future measures to reinforce microfinance services in Korea. Smile Microcredit, which aims to create a 2.2 trillion won fund to provide cheap loans to low-income families, has already obtained 1 trillion won, or 45 percent of the targeted amount. According to the report, the program has successfully established a funding base in a short period of time, but in order to develop into a sustainable microcredit program, it needs to provide business consulting services for the beneficiaries. Meanwhile, Sunshine Loans, which is another microcredit program, has added 283.1 billion won to its assets so far. The program has received funding from the central government, regional governments, and financial companies. Lending activity has been decreasing
Economic Bulletin
49
recently, due to the implementation of stricter criteria on redeemability. The FSC report stated that the Sunshine Loans program should simplify lending procedures in order to accommodate more loan recipients.
<Current situation of major microfinance programs> Smile Microcredit
Sunshine Loans
New Hope Loans
- goal: 2.2 trillion won
- goal: 2 trillion won
banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; own financial resources
- already obtained: 1 trillion won (through donations & funds from dormant bank accounts)
- already obtained: 283.1 billion won (through funds from government & financial sector)
2 trillion won in 10 years
10 trillion won in 5 years
10% of banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; operating profits in 5 years
- credit rating of 7 or lower
- annual income of less than 26 million won
- annual income of less than 30 million won
- annual income of less than 40 million won & credit rating of 6 or lower
- annual income of less than 40 million won & credit rating of 5 or lower
2~4.5%
10~13%
6~14%
Total amount loaned
325.2 billion won (Jul 2008 ~ Jun 2011)
1.65 trillion won (Jul 2010 ~ Jun 2011)
686.7 billion won (Nov 2010 ~ May 2011)
Average loan amount per borrower
7.3 million won
9.01 million won
7.95 million won
Financial resources
Lending goal
Eligibility criteria
Annual interest rate
Aggregate Performance
50
August 2011
- welfare recipient, lower income group
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 3.2 -4.3
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.8 -1.5 14.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.2 3.9
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -1.0 7.0
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 3.4 -1.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.8 25.0
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009
I II III IV
-4.2 -2.1 1.0 6.3
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-13.6 -7.1 1.8 13.1
-2.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
-7.5 -3.0 -1.0 6.2
1.6 4.3 3.2 4.0
-21.9 -18.1 -9.4 12.2
2010P
I II III IV
8.5 7.5 4.4 4.7
0.9 -2.2 -7.3 -6.7
22.2 17.8 9.8 11.1
5.9 3.4 3.4 3.0
12.5 6.8 6.8 3.4
4.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.9
29.1 30.5 26.6 15.9
2011P
I II
4.2 3.4
-8.6 0.9
9.8 7.3
2.5 2.9
-2.2 -2.2
-11.9 -8.6
11.7 7.6
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
August 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.7 139.1
-0.1 16.2
116.7 133.5
-1.4 14.4
115.5 135.6
-7.8 17.4
118.3 122.9
1.8 3.9
2009
I II III IV
103.5 118.7 125.3 131.2
-15.1 -5.4 4.9 16.8
102.6 116.6 120.7 126.9
-14.4 -5.2 2.3 12.9
115.9 110.4 113.0 115.5
-6.2 -17.0 -14.3 -7.8
112.9 118.0 118.9 123.4
-1.1 1.1 2.4 4.8
2010
I II III IV
129.8 141.0 139.0 146.6
25.4 18.8 10.9 11.7
124.0 135.1 132.7 142.0
20.9 15.9 9.9 11.9
124.6 127.7 134.6 135.6
7.5 17.5 19.1 17.4
119.9 122.9 121.6 127.3
6.2 4.2 2.3 3.2
2011
I IIP
143.6 151.0
10.6 7.1
138.7 144.6
11.9 7.0
137.4 142.6
10.3 9.9
123.1 127.1
2.7 3.4
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
94.4 100.7 115.3 117.2 116.1 122.7 124.6 117.8 133.4 128.1 130.7 134.8
-25.3 -9.4 -10.1 -7.4 -8.2 -0.6 1.0 1.4 12.1 1.2 18.5 34.8
93.7 100.3 113.8 115.6 113.8 120.5 120.1 113.6 128.3 124.0 126.6 130.1
-23.1 -8.7 -10.7 -7.4 -7.9 0.0 -1.2 -1.0 9.1 -0.2 15.3 26.2
123.9 117.7 115.9 112.3 111.5 110.4 111.5 112.0 113.0 112.4 113.6 115.5
0.1 -5.2 -6.2 -9.8 -13.3 -17.0 -15.7 -15.1 -14.3 -16.4 -14.6 -7.8
112.1 109.9 116.7 117.1 117.6 119.2 117.9 117.0 121.8 119.3 119.3 131.6
-1.6 0.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.2 2.6 1.2 1.6 4.5 2.3 4.2 7.7
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
129.3 119.1 141.1 140.0 140.0 142.9 143.1 136.5 137.3 145.3 145.3 149.2
37.0 18.3 22.4 19.5 20.6 16.5 14.8 15.9 2.9 13.4 11.2 10.7
123.1 113.6 135.2 134.7 133.4 137.3 135.7 131.0 131.4 140.8 141.4 143.9
31.4 13.3 18.8 16.5 17.2 13.9 13.0 15.3 2.4 13.5 11.7 10.6
119.8 123.3 124.6 126.3 129.9 129.7 134.1 134.5 134.6 133.5 132.8 135.6
-3.3 4.8 7.5 12.5 16.5 17.5 20.3 20.1 19.1 18.8 16.9 17.4
118.5 116.7 124.4 121.5 123.3 124.0 122.4 120.9 121.6 123.2 123.8 134.9
5.7 6.2 6.6 3.8 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 -0.2 3.3 3.8 2.5
146.9 129.8 154.0 149.7 151.4 152.0
13.6 9.0 9.1 6.9 8.1 6.4
141.4 125.2 149.6 144.6 144.2 145.0
14.9 10.2 10.7 7.3 8.1 5.6
135.4 137.1 137.4 137.3 140.4 142.6
13.0 11.2 10.3 8.7 8.1 9.9
124.1 116.9 128.2 125.2 127.5 128.5
4.7 0.2 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.6
2011
1 2 3 4 5P 6P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
August 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
119.3 127.9
3.5 7.2
93.8 102.1
-3.5 8.8
74.4 81.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2009 2010 2009
I II III IV
117.0 118.0 120.1 122.2
2.8 2.5 3.5 5.0
81.7 95.3 97.8 100.3
-17.7 -7.6 2.4 10.1
67.0 74.3 77.8 78.4
2010
I II III IV
124.3 126.5 129.5 131.3
6.2 7.2 7.8 7.4
97.4 105.6 99.6 105.6
19.2 10.8 1.8 5.3
80.4 82.3 81.2 80.8
2011
I IIP
132.7 133.8
6.8 5.8
99.9 105.4
2.6 -0.2
83.1 81.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.9 116.9 117.1 117.7 117.7 118.5 119.3 119.8 121.1 121.6 121.9 123.1
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.5
73.7 79.8 91.6 94.1 93.3 98.4 98.8 91.0 103.6 99.1 100.5 101.2
-28.6 -10.8 -12.8 -10.1 -9.7 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 9.6 -4.8 12.4 27.0
63.7 67.3 70.0 72.5 73.7 76.6 77.7 76.4 79.3 77.8 78.0 79.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.6 123.9 125.3 125.5 126.5 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.1 132.1
5.7 6.0 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.3
97.1 88.4 106.7 106.1 103.8 107.0 105.3 96.2 97.2 106.6 105.4 104.9
31.8 10.8 16.5 12.8 11.3 8.7 6.6 5.7 -6.2 7.6 4.9 3.6
79.3 80.5 81.5 81.7 82.1 83.1 82.7 79.7 81.2 79.7 80.5 82.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
132.2 132.5 133.4 133.8 133.7 133.8
7.0 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.7 5.0
102.5 89.5 107.8 104.6 104.9 106.6
5.6 1.2 1.0 -1.4 1.1 -0.4
84.8 82.2 82.4 80.4 81.4 82.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2009 2010
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
113.6 121.1
2.7 6.6
136.8 157.2
8.2 14.9
106.3 113.5
1.3 6.8
111.3 113.7
1.2 2.2
2009
I II III IV
106.5 113.4 111.9 122.4
-4.5 1.5 2.8 10.9
114.7 142.0 135.5 155.1
-11.7 5.9 7.7 34.1
103.1 107.7 94.3 120.2
-0.5 0.5 0.3 4.5
107.7 109.2 114.3 113.9
-1.4 0.4 1.8 4.0
2010
I II III IV
116.8 118.9 120.3 128.6
9.7 4.9 7.5 5.1
148.7 149.9 158.5 171.6
29.6 5.6 17.0 10.6
105.7 114.4 100.5 133.6
2.5 6.2 6.6 11.1
111.1 112.8 117.7 113.1
3.2 3.3 3.0 -0.7
2011
I IIP
122.7 125.6
5.1 5.6
167.9 176.4
12.9 17.7
112.2 121.1
6.1 5.9
112.0 112.1
0.8 -0.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 101.2 109.7 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.8 106.7 118.2 120.6 119.6 127.1
-2.9 -5.7 -4.9 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.1 0.5 6.8 9.9 9.8 12.8
104.1 116.0 124.0 123.9 144.0 158.0 138.2 122.5 145.9 144.8 153.5 167.1
-18.9 -1.5 -13.6 -10.9 5.9 24.3 -1.8 0.8 26.6 16.9 41.0 46.1
103.6 97.1 108.5 109.3 113.3 100.4 95.4 86.5 101.1 116.1 121.8 122.6
-0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.3 3.1 4.0 1.2 8.4
114.8 99.2 109.2 106.8 113.1 107.6 110.8 112.9 119.3 116.6 109.2 116.0
5.5 -8.5 -1.2 -2.5 0.7 3.0 4.4 0.8 0.4 9.4 1.4 1.5
2010
115.8 114.2 120.3 116.5 121.2 118.9 120.7 116.7 123.5 125.5 127.8 132.6
6.7 12.8 9.7 7.3 3.6 3.8 8.9 9.4 4.5 4.1 6.9 4.3
145.5 141.3 159.2 144.6 147.0 158.1 164.0 154.4 157.0 165.2 172.1 177.4
39.8 21.8 28.4 16.7 2.1 0.1 18.7 26.0 7.6 14.1 12.1 6.2
108.4 99.6 109.1 113.1 120.7 109.3 103.5 90.2 107.7 130.0 133.4 137.3
4.6 2.6 0.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 8.5 4.3 6.5 12.0 9.5 12.0
108.7 112.1 112.6 110.4 116.0 112.1 115.1 116.4 121.6 111.1 111.9 116.2
-5.3 13.0 3.1 3.4 2.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.9 -4.7 2.5 0.2
128.1 113.3 126.6 122.4 128.8 125.6
10.6 -0.8 5.2 5.1 6.3 5.6
165.9 154.2 183.5 167.4 176.4 185.3
14.0 9.1 15.3 15.8 20.0 17.2
120.4 101.6 114.6 121.5 127.0 114.7
11.1 2.0 5.0 7.4 5.2 4.9
118.9 104.3 112.7 108.7 116.3 111.3
9.4 -7.0 0.1 -1.5 0.3 -0.7
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
August 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2009 2010
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
116.4 122.0
1.4 4.8
135.1 139.6
6.5 3.3
108.9 115.0
-0.9 5.6
-
2009
I II III IV
107.7 114.8 119.9 123.3
-8.3 -0.8 5.4 10.2
113.4 139.9 139.4 147.8
-14.9 2.5 13.3 29.2
105.3 104.7 112.0 113.4
-5.2 -2.5 1.7 2.2
-
2010
I II III IV
118.5 119.9 122.0 127.6
10.0 4.4 1.8 3.5
136.7 139.5 139.2 142.9
20.5 -0.3 -0.1 -3.3
111.2 112.1 115.1 121.6
5.6 7.1 2.8 7.2
-
2011
I IIP
120.8 117.9
1.9 -1.7
134.9 134.7
-1.3 -3.4
115.2 111.1
3.6 -0.9
-
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.6 103.8 111.7 112.6 113.5 118.4 119.0 110.9 129.7 121.7 118.5 129.6
-14.2 -2.5 -7.4 -6.0 -1.9 6.0 1.0 -0.7 15.8 1.7 10.7 18.8
99.0 115.5 125.7 120.6 140.7 158.4 146.3 125.8 146.1 139.5 146.7 157.1
-25.3 -6.2 -12.8 -16.4 2.8 23.3 8.9 6.1 25.8 9.2 32.2 50.5
111.0 99.0 106.0 109.3 102.6 102.3 108.0 104.9 123.1 114.5 107.2 118.6
-9.4 -0.8 -4.6 -0.7 -4.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 11.6 -1.8 1.7 6.8
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.7 110.3 121.6 120.5 117.5 121.8 121.9 120.5 123.6 129.3 128.3 125.3
15.0 6.3 8.9 7.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 8.7 -4.7 6.2 8.3 -3.3
136.0 129.7 144.5 135.4 135.3 147.7 145.6 133.9 138.0 145.7 144.7 138.4
37.4 12.3 15.0 12.3 -3.8 -6.8 -0.5 6.4 -5.5 4.4 -1.4 -11.9
118.8 102.6 112.3 114.6 110.4 111.4 112.4 115.2 117.8 122.8 121.8 120.1
7.0 3.6 5.9 4.8 7.6 8.9 4.1 9.8 -4.3 7.2 13.6 1.3
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 110 109
2011 1 2 3 4 5P 6P 7
129.6 105.9 127.0 118.6 115.8 119.3 -
4.8 -4.0 4.4 -1.6 -1.4 -2.1 -
133.0 125.6 146.1 133.1 131.3 139.7 -
-2.2 -3.2 1.1 -1.7 -3.0 -5.4 -
128.2 98.0 119.4 112.7 109.6 111.1 -
7.9 -4.5 6.3 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 -
108 105 98 100 104 102 102
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2010
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
23,360
2,330
21,030
12,279
133.2
135.0
Manufacturing
2010
I ll III IV
5,544 6,247 5,662 5,908
525 402 380 1,023
5,019 5,845 5,282 4,885
2,910 3,564 3,026 2,779
120.5 137.5 139.1 135.6
116.7 144.2 136.2 142.8
2011
I llP
6,627 6,804
471 732
6,156 6,072
3,744 3,673
128.5 143.8
133.1 147.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,767 1,641 2,135 1,843 2,189 2,214 2,092 1,710 1,860 1,719 1,770 2,418
169 107 249 127 115 160 105 106 169 101 102 820
1,598 1,534 1,886 1,716 2,074 2,055 1,987 1,604 1,691 1,618 1,668 1,599
1,008 880 1,022 1,054 1,329 1,180 1,068 897 1,061 964 981 834
103.7 112.8 145.1 132.9 132.4 147.2 139.1 140.8 137.5 130.8 134.7 141.2
108.3 102.7 139.1 139.4 140.9 152.2 138.6 132.8 137.1 134.8 136.7 156.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
2,115 2,070 2,442 1,965 2,172 2,667
116 122 233 102 142 488
2,000 1,948 2,209 1,869 2,030 2,180
1,156 1,148 1,440 1,158 1,191 1,324
125.7 113.9 145.8 132.5 145.8 153.5
127.6 123.6 148.1 138.3 149.6 154.0
11.2
-37.9
32.3
25.1
22.5
2010
Y-o-Y change (%) 21.8
2010
I ll III IV
10.3 24.7 -0.2 11.3
-43.7 -42.2 -71.7 31.4
22.6 35.5 22.0 7.8
45.6 58.5 27.4 4.5
30.0 29.5 29.3 13.6
18.1 25.7 27.4 18.4
2011
I llP
19.5 8.9
-10.3 82.1
22.7 3.9
28.7 3.1
6.6 4.6
14.1 2.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11.8 -2.0 20.6 27.2 56.3 2.6 -16.5 26.6 2.3 9.9 -9.2 34.9
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 19.6 -68.6 -90.2 48.9 -15.5 20.8 -76.5 213.9
18.5 32.8 18.7 26.4 59.1 24.4 38.7 25.3 4.5 9.3 10.0 4.3
39.4 66.8 36.7 57.1 101.1 28.8 41.8 37.1 9.6 13.2 4.2 -3.7
26.3 23.7 38.3 32.5 28.4 27.7 31.5 41.2 17.1 21.6 13.1 7.4
27.6 5.2 22.1 24 32.1 21.8 28.1 36.9 18.8 25 19.5 12.4
2011
19.7 26.1 14.4 6.6 -0.8 20.4
-31.5 14.0 -6.3 -19.6 23.4 205.5
25.1 27.0 17.1 8.6 -2.2 6.1
14.6 30.4 41.0 9.8 -10.4 12.2
22.2 1.0 0.5 -0.3 10.1 4.3
17.8 20.4 6.5 -0.8 6.2 1.2
1 2 3 4 5P 6P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
August 2011
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
35,163
52,777
88,675
29,013
54,628
Public
92,238
2010
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completion (total)
2010
I ll llI lV
20,329 24,082 22,005 25,823
7,467 9,129 7,784 10,784
11,977 13,931 13,160 13,708
18,110 25,295 19,095 26,175
7,955 6,890 6,814 7,355
9,087 16,737 11,406 17,399
2011
I llP
19,067 23,884
7,288 9,274
10,857 13,204
15,796 24,473
4,053 6,067
10,743 16,821
6,496 6,145 7,687 7,354 7,741 8,986 7,453 7,150 7,401 7,356 8,041 10,426
2,257 2,303 2,908 2,628 2,841 3,660 2,690 2,460 2,634 2,856 3,278 4,650
3,972 3,614 4,391 4,460 4,537 4,934 4,419 4,370 4,371 4,135 4,401 5,173
7,043 4,752 6,314 6,636 8,717 9,941 7,475 4,145 7,475 4,415 7,551 14,209
2,410 2,170 3,375 1,829 1,672 3,388 3,903 1,327 1,584 1,185 2,023 4,146
4,274 2,232 2,582 4,456 6,652 5,629 3,351 2,698 5,355 3,111 5,217 9,071
6,157 5,277 7,634 7,053 7,435 9,396
2,415 2,047 2,827 2,721 2,189 3,734
3,476 2,991 4,391 3,981 4,226 4,997
4,658 4,959 7,179 6,459 6,753 11,260
1,295 1,396 1,362 1,413 1,861 2,793
2,697 2,445 5,601 4,452 4,428 7,941
2.7
8.5
-18.7
-43.7
2.8
2010
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
2010
Y-o-Y change (%) 0.5
2010
I ll llI lV
6.3 2.0 -0.4 3.3
13.8 5.5 -1.1 15.9
3.8 2.6 1.0 -4.8
-1.6 -6.7 -3.6 -40.2
-14.9 -61.9 -22.0 -52.1
8.0 105.4 13.2 34.4
2011
I llP
-6.2 -0.8
-2.4 1.6
-9.4 -5.2
-12.8 -3.3
-49.1 -11.9
18.2 0.5
7.2 0.8 10.5 -1.0 7.3 0.2 6.7 6.5 -11.8 0.9 -0.5 8.2
5.1 12.9 22.2 -0.1 9.6 6.7 14.0 1.4 -14.6 10.5 17.1 18.6
9.6 -3.5 5.3 1.0 7.8 -0.3 3.9 11.2 -9.8 -4.8 -9.4 -0.5
20.2 -4.6 -16.5 -14.1 17.4 -16.9 25.6 -12.5 -18.1 -58.8 -48.7 -22.5
-11.5 -22.2 -11.9 -68.7 -62.9 -56.0 23.5 -26.2 -58.0 -75.0 -61.4 -22.8
49.2 8.0 -25.8 178.8 138.3 49.8 38.3 -5.0 11.4 -45.7 -41.2 -23.9
-5.2 -14.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.0 4.6
7.0 -11.1 -2.8 3.5 -0.8 2.0
-12.5 -17.3 0.0 -10.7 -6.9 1.3
-33.9 -16.7 13.7 -2.7 -22.5 13.3
-46.3 -35.7 -59.6 -22.7 11.3 -17.6
-36.9 9.5 117.0 -0.1 -33.4 41.1
2010
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.0 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.7
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.4
110.9 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.3
101.4 101.4 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.4 102.2 102.5 102.7 103.2
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.1 114.9 114.8 114.2 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.5 111.3 110.5
6.5 5.1 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -3.1 -3.9
119.3 119.6 119.9 119.9 120.0 119.8 119.8 120.0 120.3 120.3 118.8 116.1
103.7 103.5 103.4 102.9 102.6 102.0 101.5 101.3 101.1 100.6 99.0 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.9 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 126.4 127.2
-3.6 -2.4 -1.3 0.5 2.6 5.4 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.7 12.0
114.1 114.1 115.3 117.1 118.1 120.4 121.7 122.7 123.5 124.4 125.2 125.8
94.3 93.9 94.5 95.5 96.0 97.4 98.0 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.2 99.2
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.5 127.0 127.1 126.9 127.3 127.7 128.4 128.8 128.8 128.4 128.7 129.3
11.6 10.4 9.6 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9
126.6 127.8 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.4 132.4 132.6 132.2 131.8 132.1 133.1
99.5 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.8
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
130.1 129.8 129.4 129.0 129.5 130.2 -
3.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 -
135.1 135.3 135.8 135.5 136.6 137.7 -
100.8 100.6 100.5 99.9 100.3 100.6 -
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 -
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
August 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Current balance
Period
2009 2010P
Goods trade balance
Exports
32,790.5 28,213.6
37,866.0 41,904.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
358,189.7 464,286.9
320,323.7 422,383.1
-6,640.5 -11,229.4
2,276.7 768.4
-711.7 -3.229.4
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III IV
263.3 8,857.9 9,931.1 9,161.3
4,785.4 12,240.4 12,542.3 12,335.9
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,257.3 127,090.1
96,569.1 105,344.7 105,715.1 114,754.2
-4,201.1 -1,873.1 -2,954.6 -2,200.6
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.1 -67.6
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7 -906.4
2011P
I
2,610.3
5,842.7
127,691.2
121,848.5
-2,538.0
387.9
-1,082.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,998.9 4,330.0 4,457.9 1,975.7 3,497.5 5,112.5 1,934.4 2,114.4
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,658.4 4,841.9 5,268.9 2,826.0 4,447.4 5,484.9 3,170.8 3,680.2
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,903.4 39,223.8 42,012.2 41,939.6 43,138.3
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,591.7 35,306.3 35,861.3 35,077.4 34,776.4 36,527.3 38,768.8 39,458.1
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 147.4 -751.6 -859.3 -902.5 -1,192.8 -749.9 -304.5 -1,146.2
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2 -34.5
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7 -385.1
2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6
154.7 1,126.1 1,329.5 1,277.6 2,183.9 2,987.8
1,557.9 1,530.8 2,754.0 3,327.6 1,633.8 3,656.0
42,662.8 37,228.3 47,800.4 47,879.4 47,149.8 48,693.6
41,104.9 35,697.2 45,046.4 44,551.8 45,516.0 45,037.6
-1,640.9 -569.1 -328.0 -178.8 15.5 -632.4
703.7 542.6 -858.4 -1,581.9 517.3 239.8
-466.0 -378.2 -238.1 -289.3 17.3 -275.6
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
289.6 -174.2
-68,666.4 -27,094.5
1,860.7 -2,882.1
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
746.6 -983.9 -388.6 618.5
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3 -5,443.2
-175.6 27.1 31.1 -56.8
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5 -2,487.7
-108.0 241.1 -2,251.5 -763.7
-1,379.1
730.3
6,251.6
-181.4
-3,479.2
143.8
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -2,191.7 -336.2
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8 -1,610.0
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 2,227.2 -2,412.2
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9 511.2
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -1,494.4 1,268.0
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.6
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.0 -2,879.6 -2,658.6 -1,719.3 1,890.2
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,612.6 -200.7 -929.5 -554.0 -768.2 757.2 257.3 -1,778.2
-1,282.0 -1,996.2 524.1 394.7 -3,956.7 -4,642.2
-1,725.4 -1,635.1 -1,335.8 -7.38.8 -1,254.7 -2,144.6
904.6 -3,004.0 720.3 4,575.0 -1,140.1 -1,399.5
569.3 -363.3 524.3 -206.2 165.1 -501.8
1,773.3 5,126.9 -648.6 -145.9 -821.7 -1,861.1
-120.7 -32.7 -28.0 -33.6 -49.9 -28.4
-2,683.1 -2,088.0 1,291.9 -3,055.8 -855.4 1,293.2
1,127.3 870.1 -1,853.6 -1,672.3 1,772.8 1,654.4
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2009 2010P
-34,651.2 -25,331.5
-14,948.0 -19,379.7
49,727.7 38,552.4
-3,093.0 -7.4
2,038.9 -17,228.1
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
2010P I II III IV
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6 -8,397.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4 -8,290.7
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1 7,262.3
2011P I
-2,754.1
-4,696.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
August 2011
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2009 2010
112.8 116.1
113.6 118.8
112.2 114.3
112.5 114.5
110.9 115.1
111.9 117.0
109.2 106.4
137.7 145.0
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6 117.8 117.1 117.8
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8 122.1 120.4 121.9
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.0 114.9 115.0
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.6
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 109.6
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 156.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
118.9 119.8 120.4 120.4 120.4 120.6 121.4
123.8 125.1 123.1 125.7 125.1 125.3 127.0
115.8 116.4 116.6 116.9 117.3 117.5 117.8
116.3 117.1 117.4 117.6 118.2 118.6 119.0
119.7 120.5 122.0 122.4 122.3 121.9 122.4
122.7 123.9 125.8 126.2 126.0 125.5 126.0
108.6 110.6 113.5 111.8 110.2 109.4 108.0
156.1 160.9 166.5 167.6 163.9 163.2 161.4
2009 2010
2.8 2.9
3.4 4.6
2.4 4.2
3.6 1.8
-0.2 3.8
-0.5 4.6
-0.2 -2.6
-4.1 5.3
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
-5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
-2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
-12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3 7.2 5.4 6.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 12.7
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4.1 4.5 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.7
7.1 7.8 7.9 6.4 5.9 6.5 7.4
2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0
2.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8
6.2 6.6 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.5
7.7 8.2 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.6 8.0
4.9 5.6 9.1 7.7 3.3 -0.4 -1.3
14.1 16.9 19.6 19.0 13.2 10.5 9.8
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2009 2010
24,394 24,748
23,506 23,829
3,836 4,028
17,998 18,214
3.6 3.7
16,454 16,971
9,390 10,086
5,101 5,068
1,963 1,817
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847 24,538
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109 23,684
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139 4,156
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340 18,272
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300 17,154
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334 10,347
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069 4,999
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898 1,808
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
24,114 24,431 24,918 25,240 25,480 25,592 25,473
23,196 23,336 23,846 24,303 24,661 24,752 24,636
4,148 4,149 4,122 4,108 4,137 4,135 4,079
18,007 3.8 18,019 4.5 18,244 4.3 18,536 3.7 18,731 3.2 18,812 3.3 18,844 3.3 Y-o-Y change (%)
16,832 16,856 17,065 17,357 17,626 17,720 17,667
10,305 10,390 10,543 10,618 10,708 10,716 10,718
4,848 4,781 4,782 4,928 5,064 5,132 5,137
1,680 1,684 1,740 1,812 1,854 1,872 1,811
2009 2010
0.2 1.5
-0.3 1.4
-3.2 5.0
0.5 1.2
-
1.5 3.1
4.3 7.4
0.4 -0.7
-7.4 -7.4
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.0
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.3
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.4
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -1.5
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7 -2.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.1 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.0
1.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4
5.7 6.7 5.1 2.9 2.5 2.9 1.0
1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9
-
3.3 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 3.1 2.5
6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.0
-0.3 -1.2 -3.9 -4.3 -3.0 -0.6 -1.5
-2.6 1.6 1.5 -1.3 -5.1 -3.4 -4.9
Source: Statistics Korea
64
August 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2009 2010
61,739.6 67,585.1
357,344.1 399,412.3
1,508,550.4 1,639,675.1
1,937,336.0 2,096,534.8
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8 71,472.9
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8 425,673.9
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9 1,682,871.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5 2,154,538.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6
73,540.8 75,432.1 73,012.7 73,206.1 73,828.5 74,705.5
429,368.1 432,482.8 430,936.6 425,420.5 423,994.7 421,885.3
1,676,448.8 1,674,390.5 1,677,475.9 1,684,792.3 1,690,543.0 1,697,204.2
2,152,814.0 2,148,254.1 2,152,736.5 2,163,485.7 2,175,557.3 2,189,729.2
Y-o-Y change (%) 2009 2010
18.1 9.5
16.3 11.8
10.3 8.7
7.9 8.2
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6 14.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8 12.9
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.2
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6
13.0 13.3 11.2 13.9 8.8 12.8
12.6 11.5 11.6 9.6 7.4 5.4
6.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.0
6.6 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.0
Source: The Bank of Korea
66
August 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2009 2010
1,167.6 1,138.9
1,276.4 1,156.3
1,262.8 1,397.1
1,363.1 1,320.6
1,674.3 1,513.6
1,774.4 1,532.9
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,114.3 1,127.9 1,107.2 1,072.3 1,080.6 1,078.1 1,052.6
1,120.1 1,118.1 1,122.5 1,086.8 1,083.5 1,081.3 1,059.5
1,356.6 1,380.7 1,331.9 1,313.8 1,335.6 1,335.7 1,353.2
1,356.3 1,351.0 1,376.2 1,304.8 1,333.6 1,342.8 1,333.4
1,514.0 1,549.5 1,563.5 1,591.2 1,549.7 1,560.5 1,507.9
1,495.4 1,524.6 1,572.6 1,569.4 1,551.3 1,555.4 1,515.4
-7.1 -2.5
15.8 -9.4
26.6 -3.1
-5.7 -9.6
10.4 -13.6
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-3.6 -2.6 -2.1 -3.9 -10.0 -10.9 -11.3
-1.6 -3.4 -1.3 -2.7 -6.8 -10.8 -12.2
5.4 6.3 9.4 10.7 1.3 -2.1 -1.2
8.7 5.4 9.6 9.2 5.4 0.7 -3.2
-6.2 -1.3 3.0 7.6 5.1 5.8 -2.9
-8.1 -3.8 1.8 4.5 6.2 5.0 -1.6
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%) -9.4 10.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Hong Nam-Ki (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim Young-Min (MOSF) Shim Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee Sung-Shin (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Eli Horn (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr