Vol. 33 | No. 10
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. External economic situation
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues 2012 Budget and 2011-2015 fiscal management plan
42
Economic News Briefing
48
Statistical Appendices
51
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview Although domestic demand has continued to recover, led by improving employment and the brisk service sector, the Korean economy has seen some real economic indicators hold back and inflation remain high. Employment improved in August, adding 490,000 jobs, led by service industries, with the employment rate rising year-on-year to 59.6 percent from 59.1 percent, and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.0 percent from 3.3 percent. Consumer price inflation, while expected inflation and core inflation remained high, slowed down month-on-month in September from 5.3 percent to 4.3 percent, as excess demand for agricultural products subsided after the Chuseok holidays. Mining and manufacturing production fell 1.9 percent from the previous month in August, partly due to temporary reasons such as equipment replacement and the moving of manufacturing facilities. Service output grew for the fourth consecutive month, rising 0.5 percent, on the back of increases in financial & insurance services and information & communications services. In August retail sales fell 0.2 percent in line with gasoline prices returning to the previous level, compared with a month ago when gasoline demand spurred just before the price hike. Facilities investment and construction investment rose 1.3 percent and 1.1 percent month-onmonth, respectively, in August, while slowing down year-on-year. A trade surplus widened to US$1.44 billion in September from US$0.48 billion in the previous month, backed by steadily increasing exports at around 20 percent. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index stayed flat in August, as sluggish mining and manufacturing production offset an increase in service output. The year-on-year leading composite index, despite a weak stock market, remained steady from the previous month backed by a rise in construction orders. In September, stock markets and foreign exchange markets showed a higher volatility, reflecting worries over possible spread of the European debt crisis. Meanwhile, bond markets posted net buying of foreign investors. There have been remaining gaps of housing price trends between in and outside the Seoul metropolitan area in September, while rent increased at a fast pace due to the autumn moving season, particularly in the Seoul Metropolitan area. There are growing uncertainties surrounding the Korean economy, with a possible outbreak of a global fiscal crisis and rising volatility in the domestic and international financial markets. The Korean government will closely monitor local and global economic situations and examine their effects on the economy in order to help the economy keep recovering and prices keep stabilizing. In the meantime, it will continue to pursue active job creation and strong domestic demand to boost the real economy, while pushing forward fiscal soundness and the soft-landing of household debts to make the Korean economy stronger. Economic Bulletin
3
1. External economic situation Concern over a recession is increasing due to the worsening outlook for the US economy and a decline in China’s economic indicators as well as the possibility of a default by Greece and the spreading of the European debt crisis. US Economic Growth Forecast for 2011 by Major Institutions (Jun 2.5%
1.6% (IMF), 2.5%
1.5% (Goldman Sachs), 2.4%
Aug or Sep)
1.6% (Bank of America)
The international financial market’s volatility is increasing because of a shortage of dollar liquidity at major European banks, such as those in France, and growing credit risks in US financial companies, both of which have been caused by the European fiscal difficulties.
US
US GDP in the second quarter of 2011 has been revised upward to 1.3 percent (annualized q-o-q) from 1.0 percent, and economic indicators have improved to a certain extent. Industrial production and personal consumption expenditure grew in August following the previous month. Industrial production (m-o-m, %) 0.7 (Mar 2011)
-0.3 (Apr)
0.2 (May)
0.4 (Jun)
0.9 (Jul)
0.2 (Aug)
0.7 (Jul)
0.2 (Aug)
Personal consumption expenditure (m-o-m, %) 0.6 (Mar 2011)
0.3 (Apr)
0.2 (May)
-0.2 (Jun)
The ISM manufacturing index and the consumer sentiment index improved slightly in September after declining in July and August. ISM manufacturing index (base=50) 61.4 (Feb 2011)
61.2 (Mar)
60.4 (Apr)
53.5 (May)
55.3 (Jun)
50.9 (Jul)
50.6 (Aug)
51.6 (Sep)
63.7 (Jul)
55.7 (Aug)
59.4 (Sep)
Michigan consumer sentiment index (CSI, base=100) 67.5 (Mar 2011)
69.8 (Apr)
74.3 (May)
71.5 (Jun)
The US strengthened its economic recovery measures, with the administration unveiling a $447 billion economic stimulus package on September 4 and the Federal Reserve announcing “Operation Twist” aimed at expanding its long-term bond holdings. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
Real GDP
2
20111
2010
Jul
Aug
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
-3.5
3.0
3.9
3.8
2.5
2.3
0.4
1.0
-
-
-1.9
2.0
2.7
2.9
2.6
3.6
2.1
0.4
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.8
4.4
6.0
18.6
11.3
8.7
2.1
9.9
-
-
- Housing construction investment
-16.0
14.6
-15.3
22.8
-27.7
2.5
-2.4
3.4
-
-
Industrial production
-11.2
5.3
2.0
1.7
1.6
0.8
1.2
0.3
0.9
0.2
- Personal consumption expenditur
-1.7
3.8
1.1
0.8
0.9
1.4
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.2
Existing home sales
5.2
-4.5
-12.3
7.5
-25.1
13.8
8.2
-4.9
-3.5
7.7
Unemployment rate3
9.3
9.6
9.7
9.6
9.6
9.6
8.9
9.1
9.1
9.1
-0.3
1.6
0.3
-0.1
0.4
0.7
1.3
1.0
0.5
0.4
Retail sales
Consumer prices 1. Preliminary
4
2. Annualized rate (%)
October 2011
3. Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Department of Commerce
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s economy continued to grow at a robust pace, expanding 9.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, but production and consumption slowed down gradually. The year-on-year consumer price index slightly slowed down to 6.2 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
20111 Q2 Jul
11.9
10.3
9.6
9.8
9.7
9.5
-
-
15.7
19.6
16.0
13.5
13.3
14.9
13.9
14.0
13.5
30.5
24.5
26.4
25.5
24.5
24.5
32.5
27.0
27.2
28.1
15.5
23.3
23.7
23.8
23.9
22.0
17.1
18.2
17.6
17.0
-16.0
31.3
28.7
40.9
32.2
24.9
26.4
22.0
20.4
24.5
-0.7
3.3
2.2
2.9
3.5
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.5
6.2
-5.4
5.5
5.2
6.8
4.5
5.7
7.0
6.9
7.5
7.3
2009 Annual
Annual
9.1
10.3
11.0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated) Retail sales
Real GDP Industrial production
2
Exports Consumer prices2 2
Producer prices
Aug
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s industrial production and exports showed a recovery trend with the supply chain continuing to recover, while personal consumption gradually increased. The country’s Cabinet Office said in its Monthly Economic Report on September 20 that despite difficulties due to the Great East Japan Earthquake, the recovery of the economy was continuing. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009 Annual
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales (y-o-y) Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
Q3
Q4
Q1
20111 Jul Q2
0.5
0.8
-0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-
-
0.7
-1.1
-0.1
-2.0
-4.0
0.4
0.8
Annual
Q1
2010 Q2
-6.3
4.0
1.5
-21.9
16.4
7.4
Aug
-2.3
2.5
3.8
3.7
3.2
-0.4
-3.0
-1.7
0.6
-2.6
-33.1
24.4
43.2
33.2
17.8
10.0
2.4
-8.0
-3.4
2.8
-1.4
-0.7
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.1
-1.4
-0.9
0.2
0.2
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance
Eurozone
The recovery of the eurozone economy was limited due to uncertainties from government debt problems, while the upward trend of consumer prices continued. Policy measures were strengthened as the European Central Bank said on September 15 that it would provide three-month dollar liquidity to euro-area banks and mentioned on September 26 the possibility of resuming covered bond purchases, while the German parliament on September 29 approved the planned expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
6
Source: Eurostat
October 2011
2009 Annual
Annual
-4.0
1.7
-14.7
7.4
Q1
2010 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
20111 Jul Q2
0.4
1.0
0.3
0.3
0.8
0.2
-
-
2.6
2.4
1.0
1.8
0.9
0.2
1.0
-
Aug
-2.4
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
0.2
-18.1
20.1
12.9
22.3
22.8
21.8
21.2
12.6
5.4
-
0.3
1.6
1.1
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.5
2.8
2.5
2.5
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (preliminary) increased 0.9 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2011. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009
Private consumption
2
q-o-q
20111
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
0.0
-1.1
0.4
5.6
4.1
6.6
3.5
3.6
2.9
2.8
3.0
-
3.7
1.4
0.9
-
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.9
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Retail sales in August increased 5.2 percent year-on-year. However, it declined 0.2 percent month-on-month despite strong sales of durable and semi-durable goods, as non-durable goods sales slowed down affected by declining gasoline demand, which soared shortly before the price return to the normal level. On a year-on-year basis, durable goods sales slowed down but remained at a high level, while sales of semi-durable and non-durable goods grew. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales q-o-q - Durable goods
2
ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods3 - Non-durable goods
4
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul1
Aug1
2.7
6.6
9.7
4.9
7.5
5.1
5.1
5.7
5.3
5.2
-
-
0.6
-0.1
3.3
0.8
1.1
0.2
2.3
-0.2
8.2
14.9
29.6
5.6
17.0
10.6
12.9
17.5
12.6
12.2
21.8
11.1
48.9
-2.1
12.0
0.1
10.2
13.0
10.8
7.1
1.3
6.8
2.5
6.2
6.6
11.1
6.1
5.6
3.9
4.0
1.2
2.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
-0.7
0.8
-0.4
2.2
2.5
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Sales at department stores and nonstore retailers jumped 8.0 percent, respectively, while those at large discounters rose 2.4 percent, from the effect of Chuseok holiday-related expenditures, but sales at specialized retailers dropped 2.5 percent. On a year-on-year basis, the sales of department stores, large discounters, specialized retailers and nonstore retailers all continued to gain ground. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers - Nonstore retailers
2
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul1
Aug1
4.3
8.8
7.5
9.2
7.4
10.5
11.5
9.7
7.1
7.9
-2.2
4.4
5.4
4.1
7.6
0.8
3.5
5.1
3.5
3.0
3.0
5.6
9.7
1.8
7.3
4.2
4.3
4.9
6.0
3.8
8.7
15.6
20.1
17.9
11.4
13.5
11.5
9.2
6.1
15.3
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
October 2011
20111
2010
2009
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
There is a possibility that retail sales will slow down considering advanced indicators and a drop in consumer sentiment due to concern over a global economic slowdown. As Chuseok-related expenditures accounted for a considerable part of the retail sales in August, there is a possibility of a slowdown in retail sales, particularly those of non-durable goods, in September. Increasing volatility in financial markets due to the downgrading of the US credit rating and concern over a global economic slowdown has been followed by the plummeting of stock prices, resulting in worries over their effect on assets. KOSPI (monthly average) 2,153 (Apr 2011)
2,122 (May)
2,075 (Jun)
2,150 (Jul)
1,869 (Aug)
1,791 (Sep)
In September, the consumer sentiment index was 99, falling below the benchmark of 100 for the second month in a row. Consumer sentiment index (CSI, base=100) 105 (Feb 2011)
98 (Mar)
100 (Apr)
104 (May)
102 (Jun)
102 (Jul)
99 (Aug)
99 (Sep)
Advanced indicators for September showed that retail sales slowed down overall. Credit card use and sales of department stores and large discounters slowed down, with a particular year-on-year drop in sales of large discounters. The decline in gasoline sales continued, as fuel prices remained high due to the rising exchange rate. Credit card use (y-o-y, %) 16.3 (Apr 2011)
21.1 (May)
19.8 (Jun)
16.6 (Jul)
19.8 (Aug)
16.6 (Sep)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 15.1 (Apr 2011)
8.7 (May)
8.2 (Jun)
8.5 (Jul)
8.3 (Aug)
5.8 (Sep)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) 4.6 (Apr 2011)
2.4 (May)
2.7 (Jun)
4.9 (Jul)
2.0 (Aug)
-1.4 (Sep)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) -4.7 (Apr 2011)
-2.6 (May)
-3.4 (Jun)
9.2 (Jul)
-0.3 (Aug)
0.9 (Sep)
Domestic sales of cars (y-o-y, %) 3.0 (Apr 2011)
3.7 (May)
6.0 (Jun)
6.1 (Jul)
3.7 (Aug)
3.8 (Sep)
Consumer goods imports (y-o-y, %) 30.0 (Apr 2011)
28.1 (May)
27.2 (Jun)
33.3 (Jul)
28.6 (Aug)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for September data)
Although situations related to retail sales are improving with a recovery in employment and a slowdown in consumer price inflation, the growth of retail sales are predicted to be limited by external uncertainties. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 469 (Mar 2011)
379 (Apr)
355 (May)
472 (Jun)
335 (Jul)
490 (Aug)
Consumer Prices (y-o-y, %) 4.7 (Mar 2011)
10
October 2011
4.2 (Apr)
4.1 (May)
4.4 (Jun)
4.7 (Jul)
5.3 (Aug)
4.3 (Sep)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2011 increased 3.9 percent quarter-on-quarter and 7.5 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009
Facility investment
2
q-o-q - Machinery - Transportation equipment
20111
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
-9.8
12.2
25.0
29.1
30.5
26.6
15.9
11.7
7.5
-
7.8
-
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-1.1
3.9
-13.5
10.1
30.8
30.0
35.3
38.9
20.5
13.9
9.0
2.8
19.1
6.7
24.2
15.6
-6.6
0.6
3.2
2.0
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment in August, while rising 1.3 percent month-on-month, fell 3.7 percent yearon-year due to weak investment in machinery. Facility investment is projected to return to moderate recovery given domestic consumption in good shape and leading indicators improving. Still, mounting uncertainties triggered by Europe’s debt crisis and shrinking corporate investment sentiment are likely to limit gains. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
-9.4
25.1
29.5
29.3
13.6
6.6
q-o-q, m-o-m
-
-
6.7
7.2
-5.4
- Machinery
-12.6
30.5
37.1
37.4
17.1
Facility investment
- Transportation equipment
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
4.8
4.7
-2.8
-3.7
-0.2
3.0
0.7
-5.7
1.3
6.8
7.0
5.2
-2.5
-6.0
4.6
4.3
2.8
-0.1
-1.2
5.6
-5.7
2.6
-4.2
10.6
-10.3
11.2
24.7
-0.2
11.3
19.5
8.2
18.5
-4.4
6.0
-
-
15.2
-3.6
4.1
3.6
3.9
10.2
-16.4
1.0
- Public
62.4
-37.9
-42.2
-71.7
31.4
-10.3
82.0
205.2
44.9
8.0
- Private
-18.2
21.8
35.5
22.0
7.8
22.7
3.1
4.0
-7.0
5.8
-16.6
40.4
51.3
40.0
26.3
8.0
10.5
3.3
12.4
11.3
Manufacturing operation ratio
-3.5
8.8
10.8
1.8
5.3
2.6
-0.3
-0.4
-2.4
0.8
Facility investment adjustment pressure2
-3.7
9.5
12.1
3.4
4.6
4.1
1.6
1.5
-0.5
1.3
Domestic machinery orders q-o-q, m-o-m
Machinery imports
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
2011
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
October 2011
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
103
102
103
103
100
98
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2011 rose 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, and fell 6.8 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009
20111
Annual
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
3.4
4.0
-1.4
4.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.9
-11.9
-6.8
-
0.7
-
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-6.7
1.6
- Building construction
-2.3
2.4
-2.9
4.5
-5.1
-6.3
-2.8
-11.3
-3.7
- Civil engineering works
11.6
5.6
0.5
4.0
1.0
1.7
-2.9
-12.7
-10.4
Construction investment
2
q-o-q
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
The value of construction completion (constant) in August increased 1.1 percent month-onmonth, but declined 9.2 percent year-on-year due to a drop in both building construction and civil engineering works. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
1.6
-3.3
-4.3
-6.8
-4.3
-12.6
-6.61
-1.41
-14.6
-9.2
-
-
-3.1
-4.3
-1.6
-4.6
3.51
14.51
-16.5
1.1
- Building construction
-6.4
-7.1
-7.7
-12.3
-8.5
-15.2
-8.4
1
-3.5
1
-14.3
-10.5
- Civil engineering works
16.1
2.2
0.6
1.9
1.2
-9.2
-4.3
1
1.1
1
-14.9
-7.5
5.0
-18.7
-6.7
-3.6
-40.2
-12.8
-3.3
13.3
-34.6
75.4
-
-
0.2
-1.4
-22.9
12.8
9.8
37.0
-30.4
65.8
-14.2
-9.9
55.3
-1.3
-46.4
-9.7
-4.0
8.3
-41.8
87.7
44.3
-29.5
-49.7
-7.0
-29.9
-17.0
-1.5
22.1
-26.7
50.7
-12.9
19.3
47.4
-14.3
18.1
21.5
3.8
7.8
31.4
87.8
Value of construction completion(constant) q-o-q, m-o-m
Construction orders (current value) q-o-q, m-o-m - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment is forecast to slightly recover, while suffering from stagnant housing markets and construction companies’ weak investment sentiment. Housing markets have shown recovery signs, as building permits have increased, and unsold houses have dropped. Meanwhile, leading indicators have turned positive. As of August 31, housing building permits increased 79.6 percent year-on-year.
2009
Unsold houses
14
October 2011
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Jun
Jul
Aug
123,000
89,000
73,000
70,000
69.000
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in September increased 19.6 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$47.12 billion. Exports rose almost 20 percent amid the global fiscal difficulties and despite weak performance of IT products, as petroleum products, automobiles and steel increased. By business category, exports of petroleum products (up 56.8%), automobiles (up 40.0%), and steel (up 39.6%) surged while those of semiconductors (down 4.2%) and LCDs (down 5.1%) decreased. By regional category, exports to Japan (up 48.8%), the ASEAN countries (up 43.2%), and China (up 20.5%) jumped while those to the EU and the US remained positive. Exports to the EU countries (up 11.2%) posted a double-digit gain for two consecutive months, while those to the US (up 15.9 %) expanded from the previous month’s 6.9 percent. (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep1
363.53
466.38
101.08
120.24
116.32
128.75
131.00
142.74
142.24
45.94
47.12
-13.9
28.3
35.8
33.1
22.7
23.8
29.6
18.7
22.3
25.9
19.6
1.30
1.70
1.51
1.76
1.72
1.79
1.99
2.08
2.05
1.91
2.14
323.08
425.21
98.16
105.63
105.70
115.73
123.64
134.36
142.24
45.46
45.68
-25.8
31.6
37.4
42.8
24.6
24.6
25.9
27.2
22.3
28.9
30.5
11.6
1.46
0.47
1.54
1.57
1.61
1.87
1.96
2.05
1.90
2.08
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in September increased 30.5 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$45.68 billion. Imports of commodities and consumer goods soared in line with high oil prices as well as recovering domestic demand, outstripping exports in terms of an increase rate. In September imports of commodities rose 34.3%, those of capital goods 7.6%, and those of consumer goods 31.5% year-on-year. The current account surplus (preliminary) in September was US$1.44 billion, a surplus for the 20th consecutive month. The surplus increased from the previous month as the summer vacation season ended. (US$ billion) 2008-2010
Average trade surplus
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
4.25
2.41
-0.35
2.16
3.64 (US$ billion)
2009
Trade Balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
October 2011
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep1
40.45
41.17
2.93
14.61
10.62
13.02
7.37
9.37
6.81
0.48
1.44
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in August fell 1.9 percent month-on-month with automobiles and chemical products declining, while rising 4.8 percent year-on-year. By business category, clothing and fur (up 12.2%) and groceries (up 3.3%) increased monthon-month, while automobiles (down 6.7%) and chemical products (down 3.2%) went down. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio increased month-on-month for three months in a row, as the inventory added 3.1 percent and the shipments shed 0.6 percent. By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 1.3%) and nonferrous metals (up 5.8%) increased month-on-month, while those of refined petroleum (down 6.2%) and electric equipment (down 7.4%) declined. The inventories of semiconductors and parts (up 7.3%) and electric equipment (up 11.0%) climbed month-on-month, while those of refined petroleum (down 14.9%) and clothing and fur (down 4.0%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector lost 1.6 percentage points to 80.5 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the average of 78.3 percent between 2000 and 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 Q2
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
Aug1
-
4.2
-1.5
6.1
0.0
0.9
-0.3
-1.9
(y-o-y)
16.2
18.8
15.9
10.6
7.2
6.6
4.0
4.8
- Manufacturing
16.7
19.3
16.2
10.9
7.4
6.6
3.9
4.9
∙ICT
Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2011
25.2
26.7
21.7
14.3
10.5
6.9
3.6
2.8
∙Automobiles
23.1
32.1
18.3
16.1
12.1
17.2
12.0
23.6
Shipment
14.4
15.9
15.3
11.9
7.2
5.9
3.2
4.4
- Domestic demand
11.5
13.3
12.0
7.2
3.8
3.7
1.2
2.7
3
- Exports
18.2
19.5
19.8
18.4
11.6
8.8
5.9
6.3
Inventory4
17.4
17.5
20.1
10.3
10.0
10.0
9.8
11.9
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
81.2
82.3
79.7
83.1
81.4
82.5
82.1
80.5
7.2
7.2
8.3
6.8
5.8
5.1
4.4
3.6
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity, and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to continue a moderate recovery, as the equipment replacement in major car makers was finalized and exports steadily grow at around 20 percent. However, it may possibly be affected by global uncertainties. Exports (y-o-y, %) 23.5 (Apr 2011)
22.0 (May)
11.2 (Jun)
21.7 (Jul)
25.9 (Aug)
19.6 (Sep)
Automobile production (thousand) 395 (Apr 2011)
18
October 2011
389 (May)
438 (Jun)
392 (Jul)
320 (Aug)
374 (Sep)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Despite sluggish hotels & restaurants and wholesale & retail sales due to increased number of rainy days, service activity in August increased 0.5 percent from the previous month, helped by information & communications services and financial & insurance services. On a year-on-year basis, service activity rose 4.8 percent. Service activities in financial & insurance services (up 2.7%) and information & communications services (up 2.6%) significantly expanded month-on-month. Healthcare & social welfare services (up 1.5%) also increased. Real estate & renting (up 0.3%) continued to improve for two consecutive months, while remained weak on a year-on-year basis (down 3.4%). (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight Service activity index
2009
2010
Annual Annual
2011
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul1
Aug1
100.0
1.8
3.9
6.2
4.2
2.3
3.2
2.7
3.3
3.8
4.8
- Wholesale & retail sales
21.8
-0.4
5.7
7.4
5.6
5.0
4.7
4.0
4.8
3.1
4.6
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6
12.0
14.1
14.3
10.1
10.0
7.2
3.5
4.1
4.6
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.4
1.2
1.2
0.7
1.3
1.7
-0.6
1.9
2.6
0.9
- Information & communications services
8.4
0.9
1.9
1.0
0.4
2.2
3.6
3.9
3.4
4.0
6.0
15.3
7.8
4.6
6.7
2.5
1.4
8.2
7.2
8.2
7.8
10.6
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
-8.6
11.5
-2.4
-15.9
-24.2
-17.7
-11.5
-3.5
-3.4
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.2
-0.5
0.8
2.1
-3.9
-1.3
-3.6
-1.4
0.6
3.7
- Business services
2.9
-3.0
7.5
5.3
8.1
7.6
8.6
5.7
5.5
4.4
1.6
10.8
2.1
2.0
3.2
1.4
0.5
3.1
1.1
0.2
1.9
2.7
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
8.8
11.7
11.0
8.6
4.6
6.2
5.0
4.8
5.2
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
-0.4
-3.9
-0.1
-0.4
2.7
2.4
1.2
3.1
1.1
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.1
4.3
1.6
6.0
5.0
4.5
2.9
2.4
2.0
1.5
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
5.1
6.7
6.0
1.7
6.4
0.0
-3.1
-5.2
6.8
- Financial & insurance services
- Educational services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service activity is expected to slowdown in September affected by sluggish wholesale & retail sales and financial & insurance services due to dampening consumer sentiment and the bearish stock market.
20
October 2011
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
August 2011 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in August increased by 490,000 from a year earlier, while the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 59.6 percent. By industry, employment in services (up 572,000) led the upward trend. The service sector continued to expand employment with increasing health & welfare (up 111,000) and professional, scientific & technical services (up 97,000). In addition, transportation services (up 79,000) and wholesale & retail sales (up 88,000) contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, employment in manufacturing (down 28,000) declined due to the base effect from August last year, when the manufacturing sector gained 297,000 jobs. By status of workers, the number of regular workers (up 559,000) continued to increase, while self-employed workers (up 53,000) increased year-on-year for the first time since April 2006.
2009 Annual Number of employed (million)
Q3
2010 Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
2011
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug
23.51 23.75 23.63 23.83 23.04 24.17 24.12 23.99 24.01 23.46 24.57 24.64 24.50
Employment rate (%)
58.6
59.1
58.7
58.7
57.0
59.6
59.3
58.9
59.1
57.4
59.9
60.0
59.6
(seasonally adjusted)
58.6
58.7
58.5
58.7
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
58.9
58.8
59.2
59.1
59.5
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-72
-1
-6
323
132
433
369
358
386
423
402
335
490
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
-34
24
110
405
296
518
414
393
421
451
39
390
529
-126 -143
-49
191
61
172
262
269
297
228
112
40
-28
- Construction
-91 -103 -107
33
-61
44
92
57
109
-3
-41
-55
-1
- Services
179
261
200
313
325
83
80
36
224
331
410
572
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-38
-25 -116
-82 -164
-85
-45
-35
-35
-28
3
-55
-38
- Wage workers
247
356
385
517
371
623
541
532
569
519
421
439
462
∙Regular workers
383
386
515
697
651
766
671
699
679
605
621
611
559
22
125
105
-34
-37
42
-26 -114
5
-88 -137
-78
-91
- Manufacturing
∙Temporary workers
261
∙Daily workers
-158 -155 -235 -146 -243 -185 -104
-53 -115
2
- Non-wage workers
-319 -357 -391 -194 -239 -189 -172 -174 -183
-96
∙Self-employed workers
-259 -276 -279 -118 -106
- Male
-94
-6
-19 -104
-63
-28
-91 -130 -146 -133 -115
-39
-39
53
31
34
89
181
117
188
207
212
218
266
221
175
267
- Female
-103
-34
-94
142
15
245
163
146
167
157
181
160
223
- 15 to 29
-127 -123
-77
-43
-12
-58
-44
-57
-55
-49
-74
-44
39
- 30 to 39
-173 -169 -149
-4
-42
-13
21
17
37
-34
-13
-52
-93
- 40 to 49
-24
-30
-46
29
-21
48
40
50
44
77
59
63
61
- 50 to 59
198
211
230
294
251
342
295
287
309
286
294
269
300
54
109
37
47
-44
114
57
60
50
143
137
98
182
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
October 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in August decreased by 69,000 year-on-year to 762,000 and the year-on-year unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) dropped 0.3 percentage points to 3.0 percent. The youth unemployment rate fell 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the youth unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) went down 0.6 percentage points to 6.7 percent, falling for the fifth consecutive month.
2009
2010
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Number of unemployed (thousand)
889
886
817
920 1,130
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
119
134
60
31
222
- Male
80
95
25
-7
- Female
40
39
36
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.6
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.6
- 15 to 29
8.1
- 30 to 39 - 40 to 49
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jul
868
873
808
831 1,028
-75
-13
-10
-74
-101
83
-47
-48
-16
-83
38
139
-29
35
6
3.3
3.7
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.7
4.3
3.5
8.1
7.6
8.0
9.5
7.7
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.5
3.9
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.9
Aug
865
837
762
-3
-95
-69
-70
-32
-68
-37
9
-32
29
-27
-32
3.3
3.3
4.2
3.4
3.3
3.0
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.9
3.4
3.3
3.1
7.6
7.1
7.0
8.8
7.9
7.6
6.3
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.6
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.4
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.3
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
- 60 or more
1.6
1.6
1.5
2.8
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
4.5
2.3
2.5
1.8
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in August was up 47,000 from a year earlier to 15,860,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate rose 0.3 percentage point year-onyear to 61.4 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to rest, time-off and leisure (up 162,000), housework (up 78,000), and childcare (up 19,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to education (down 125,000) and old age (down 12,000) decreased.
2009 Annual
Q3
2011
2010 Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug
Economically inactive population (million) 15.70 15.53 15.83 15.84 16.25 15.49 15.66 15.96 15.82 16.39 15.56 15.61 15.86 Labor force participation rate (%)
60.6
61.3
60.7
61.0
59.8
61.8
61.5
60.8
61.1
59.9
62.0
62.0
61.4
(seasonally adjusted)
60.6
60.9
60.6
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.1
60.8
61.0
61.1
61.3
61.1
61.3
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
447
374
456
143
166
146
128
133
172
138
66
231
47
40
19
15 -125 -118 -126 -149 -107
-93
-44
-16
7
19
- Housework
148
100
235
201
237
175
203
189
118
130
27
104
78
- Education
31
11
-36
12
-74
23
46
55
38
-16
-39
-61
-125
88
105
92
80
193
59
43
25
123
94
123
-56 -187
-27
15
-27
- Childcare
- Old age - Rest, time-off and leisure Source: Statistics Korea
24
October 2011
24 -103 -58
241
-58
-22
-12
163
215
162
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock price index in September fell 5.9 percent month-on-month to 1,770 points from the previous month’s 1,880 points. Due to weak investment sentiment affected by worries over the spread of European debt crisis and the possibility of a double dip recession, the Korean stock market recorded 1,653 points on September 26, the lowest level this year. The index decelerated the decline thereafter, helped by mounting expectations of policy coordination in Europe as German lawmakers approved a bill to increase the size of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) on September 29. Foreign investors maintained a net-selling position but the sales volume decelerated to 1.4 trillion won in September from the previous month’s 5.1 trillion won. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI Aug 2011
Sep 2011
Stock price index
1,880.1
1,769.7
Market capitalization
KOSDAQ Change1
Aug 2011
Sep 2011
-110.5 (-5.9%)
493.4
449.7
Change1 -43.8 (-8.9%)
1,062.7
1,001.9
-60.7 (-5.7%)
102.2
93.2
-9.0 (-8.8%)
Average daily trade value
8.0
6.3
-1.7 (-21.0%)
2.6
2.2
-0.4 (-15.7%)
Foreign stock ownership
32.0
32.9
+0.9 (+2.9%)
9.9
9.9
-0.1 (-0.6%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in September increased 111.3 won to wrap up the month at 1,178.1 won from 1,066.8 won at the end of August. The won/dollar exchange rate significantly rose from end-August due to worries over a double dip recession in the US. Resurfacing eurozone crisis, highlighted by possible Greek default and concerns over the spread of European financial crisis to France and Italy also contributed to the rise. Due to flight to safety assets caused by the international financial market jitters, the yen strengthened and the won/100 yen exchange rate rose 145.6 won from the end of the previous month. (End-period) 2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Aug
2011 Sep
Change1
Won/Dollar
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,066.8
1,178.1
-3.7
Won/100 Yen
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,393.4
1,539.0
-9.4
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
October 2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market The 5-year Treasury bond yields gained 4 basis points in September to 3.66 percent from the previous month’s 3.62 percent. Despite flight to safety assets affected by worries over global economic slowdown, the Treasury bond yields rose due to spreading concerns over the outflow of foreign investment funds amid unstable financial markets. Foreign investors’ netselling of the Treasury bonds futures also contributed to the rise. (End-period)
Call rate (1 day)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jul
Aug
Sep
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.51
3.27
3.27
3.28
Change1 +1
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.80
3.59
3.59
3.58
-1
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.38
3.85
3.49
3.55
+6
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.27
4.54
4.23
4.36
+13
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.08
4.02
3.62
3.66
+4
1. Basis point, changes in September 2011 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in July expanded 3.2 percent from a year earlier. Despite slightly contracted government credit, the month-on-month M2 increased 3.0 percent from the previous month, helped by expanded private sector credit as sell-off pressure on equity-type funds has eased. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
M1
2
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Jul1
-1.8
16.3
11.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
11.2
9.6
7.4
5.4
3.84
419.04
4
1,705.54 2,208.64
M2
14.3
10.3
8.7
9.4
9.5
8.6
7.4
3.9
3.7
3.0
3.2
Lf
11.9
7.9
8.2
8.5
9.1
8.2
7.1
4.5
4.4
4.1
4.64
3
1. Balance at end July 2011, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In August, bank deposits decelerated the increase while asset management company (AMC) deposits accelerated the rise. It was attributable to the slower growth in time deposits in line with the lowering of interest rates and accelerated decline in instant access account deposits due to payments of corporate taxes. Asset management company (AMC) deposits expanded due to increases in equity-type funds and fund inflows from banks. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Jul
Annual
Jul
Jun
Jul
Aug
Aug1
Bank deposits
54.8
-0.6
36.9
3.5
6.7
7.1
3.9
1,079.2
AMC deposits
-27.6
-2.2
-16.7
-6.5
-1.9
0.6
4.4
1,306.1
1. Balance at end August, trillion won
28
October 2011
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in August posted US$ 400 million, decelerating the growth from the previous month’s US$ 3.77 billion due to seasonal factors such as summer vacation. However, the surplus is similar to the most recent five-year August average of US$ 490 million. Current account balance (monthly average from 2006 to 2010, US$ billion) 3.04 (Jun)
2.58 (Jul)
0.49 (Aug)
2.91 (Sep)
3.73 (Oct)
The goods account surplus continued the upward trend helped by robust exports in petroleum products and automobiles. The surplus, however, decelerated to US$480 million from the previous month’s US$4.73 billion led by seasonal factors such as fewer working days during the summer vacation period. The service account deficit narrowed to US$580 million from the previous month’s US$690 million as the travel account improved. The primary income account surplus widened to US$700 million from the previous month’s US$70 million due to decreased dividend payments. Meanwhile, the secondary income account deficit contracted to US$200 million from the deficit of US$340 million a month earlier, affected by increased inward remittance. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug1
Current account
32.79
28.21
0.26
8.86
9.93
9.16
2.72
5.49
3.77
0.40
- Goods balance
37.87
41.90
4.79
12.24
12.54
12.34
5.95
7.66
4.73
0.48
- Service balance
-6.64
-11.23
-4.20
-1.87
-2.96
-2.20
-2.54
-0.80
-0.69
-0.58
- Income balance
2.28
0.77
0.55
-1.01
1.30
-0.07
0.39
-0.82
0.07
0.70
- Current transfers
-0.71
-3.23
-0.87
-0.50
-0.95
-0.91
-1.08
-0.55
-0.34
-0.20
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in August registered an outflow of US$2.37 billion, slightly decreasing from the previous month’s outflow of US$2.48 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) 0.52 (Mar 2011)
0.39 (Apr)
-3.96 (May)
-3.25 (Jun)
-2.47 (Jul)
-2.33 (Aug1)
1. Preliminary
The direct investment account turned to an outflow of US$1.04 billion from the previous month’s inflow of US$330 million as overseas direct investment by locals increased. The portfolio investment account shifted to an outflow of US$2.92 billion from the previous month’s inflow of US$9.26 billion as foreign funds registered a huge outflow in the equity market. The financial derivatives account turned to an outflow of US$1.87 billion from the previous month’s inflow of US$530 million. Meanwhile, the other investment account shifted to an inflow of US$4.0 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$6.58 billion as local banks’ borrowing increased. The current account in September is expected to expand the surplus, helped by increased exports to major trade markets such as the US, EU and ASEAN.
30
October 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Inflation decelerated considerably in September, with consumer prices rising 4.3 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent month-on-month. The year-on-year increase rate was 1.0 percentage point lower than the previous month’s 5.3 percent. The prices of most agricultural, livestock & fishery products, as well as personal services, have stabilized. However, the prices of some agricultural products, durable goods and rent continued to move upward. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 3.9 percent year-onyear and 0.2 percent month-on-month. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.8 percent compared to the same month of the previous year.
Consumer price inflation 2010
2011
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Month-on-Month (%)
0.3
1.1
0.2
-0.6
0.6
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.1
Year-on-Year (%)
2.6
3.6
4.1
3.3
3.5
4.5
4.7
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.7
5.3
4.3
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
2.0
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.9
(m-o-m)
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
2.6
4.1
4.8
3.6
3.9
5.2
4.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
4.8
5.2
3.8
Source: Statistics Korea
While most agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices fell (down 0.1%, m-o-m), those of chili powder and some other agricultural products rose. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in September (m-o-m, %) Grape (-27.6), Chinese cabbage (-11.1), turnip (-5.4), pork (-4.4), mackerel (-0.2), rice (0.6), egg (1.6), chili powder (38.2)
Prices of industrial products continued to rise (up 0.5%, m-o-m), led by gold accessories, in particular gold rings (up 8.1%, m-o-m). Public service charges fell (down 0.1%, m-o-m), as the rise in water fees (up 0.2%, m-o-m) was offset by the decrease in mobile service fees (down 1.4%, m-o-m). Price increases in personal services (down 0.2%, m-o-m), which include dining out costs, gradually stabilized.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.08
0.01
0.18
0.00
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
0.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.04
-0.01
-0.06
Year-on-Year (%)
4.3
2.3
7.7
16.5
4.7
0.6
3.2
Contribution (%p)
4.25
0.23
2.40
0.96
0.42
0.10
1.11
Source: Statistics Korea
32
October 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices In September, international oil prices inched up while domestic oil product prices edged down from the previous month. Although the monthly average of international oil prices increased month-on-month, weekly prices fell after the first week of September, due to fears over recession caused by financial difficulties in Europe. Dubai crude in September (per week, US$/barrel) 108.4 (week 1)
106.2 (week 2)
105.7 (week 3)
101.6 (week 4) (US$/barrel, period average)
Dubai crude
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Annual
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
94.3
61.9
78.1
108.5
115.8
108.0
107.5
110.2
105.0
105.7
Brent crude
97.5
61.7
79.7
114.6
123.3
114.3
114.0
116.8
110.0
111.5
WTI crude
99.9
61.9
79.5
103.0
110.0
101.3
96.3
97.3
86.3
85.6
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Domestic oil product prices fell by a small margin in September, as the effect of lower international oil prices in August took effect gradually over the course of 1~2 weeks. However, weekly prices continued the upward trend due to the weakening won. Gasoline prices in September (per week, won/liter) 1,935 (week 1)
1,942 (week 2)
1,947 (week 3)
1,956 (week 4)
Won/dollar exchange rate in September (per week) 1,069 (week 1)
1,095 (week 2)
1,141 (week 3)
1,181 (week 4) (Won/liter, period average)
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Annual
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Gasoline prices
1,692
1,601
1,710
1,939
1,951
1,938
1,915
1,935
1,946
1,945
Diesel prices
1,614
1,397
1,503
1,756
1,793
1,773
1,736
1,754
1,758
1,746
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of international commodities decreased in September, due to recession fears led by a possible European financial crisis and poor economic indicators from major countries. Despite production disruptions caused by strikes at copper mines in Indonesia and Peru, non-ferrous metal prices fell due to concerns that a recession would lead to lower demand. Prices of non-ferrous metals in September (m-o-m, %) Electrolytic copper (-7.5), nickel (-7.4), tin (-7.3), aluminum (-3.8)
International grain prices fell due to the possibility of slow demand amid increased production and inventories. The world grain production outlook for 2011~12 has been revised to 2.267 billion tons in the latest USDA reports released on September 12, up 0.1 percent from the previous month. The outlook for inventories revised up 2.1 percent month-on-month to 442 million tons. Prices of grain in September (m-o-m, %) Wheat (-5.6), corn (-4.2), soybean (-2.2), raw sugar (-5.7)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
2010 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2,536
2,079
2,553
3,221
3,246
3,128
3,143
3,145
3,038
2,978
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
34
October 2011
2011
Source: KOREA PDS
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market The upward trend of nationwide apartment sales prices continued in September, with prices rising 0.7 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area remained unchanged from the previous month. Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area showed a persistent upward trend, led by Busan (up 1.2%, m-o-m), Gwangju (up 1.8%, m-o-m) and North Chungcheong Province (up 2.3%, m-o-m). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities climbed 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent each, surpassing the national average.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
0.6
0.7
Sep Aug 291 Sep 51 Sep 191 Sep 261
Nationwide
2.3
1.6
2.5
0.6
1.1
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.7
Seoul
3.2
2.6
-2.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2 -0.1
-0.1 -0.04 -0.02 -0.02 -0.04
Gangnam2
-1.9
3.9
-1.8
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2 -0.1
-0.1 -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02
Gangbuk3
9.4
0.9
-2.7
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0 -0.1
-0.1 -0.1
-0.1 -0.04 -0.03 -0.01 -0.06
Seoul metropolitan area
2.9
0.7
-2.9
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0 -0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01
5 metropolitan cities
1.0
2.8
8.7
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
1. Weekly trends
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
1.6
0.7
0.15 0.17 0.21 0.19
0.30 0.34 0.44 0.41
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental prices in September were up 1.8 percent, accelerating from the previous month’s 1.5 percent. The prices slightly picked up in Seoul (up 2.2%, m-o-m), Gyeonggi Province (up 2.1%, m-o-m) and the Seoul metropolitan area (up 2.0%, m-o-m). Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (2.1), Songpa (2.5), Gangdong (3.0), Nowon (3.3)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual Jan
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam Gangbuk3 Seoul metropolitan area 5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Aug 291 Sep 51 Sep 191 Sep 261
0.8
4.5
8.8
1.1
2.0
2.3
1.6
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.5
1.8
0.41 0.44 0.52 0.46
-1.8
8.1
7.4
1.1
2.1
1.8
0.7
0.3
0.5
1.1
1.7
2.2
0.54 0.62 0.64 0.50
-3.6 10.4
2
Feb
8.8
1.3
1.9
1.4
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.2
1.7
2.1
0.48 0.63 0.58 0.47
0.5
5.4
5.6
1.0
2.4
2.3
0.8
0.4
0.2
1.0
1.8
2.3
0.61 0.61 0.71 0.54
-0.4
5.6
7.2
1.0
2.1
2.4
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.9
1.6
2.0
0.47 0.50 0.60 0.50
3.9 12.0
1.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.9
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.4
0.32 0.34 0.40 0.39
1.6
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in August increased 3.1 percent from the previous month’s 42,718 to 44,049. The transactions were up 42.1 percent from 31,007 a year earlier.
Apartment sales transactions 2007
2008
(Monthly average, thousand)
2009
2010
Annual Annual Annual Annual Aug Nationwide
38
39
44
40
31
Source: Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
36
October 2011
2011
Sep
Oct
Nov
34
41
54
Dec Jan 63
45
Feb
Mar
52
59
Apr May 56
48
Jun
Jul
Aug
47
43
44
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in August rose for the tenth consecutive month (up 0.09%, m-o-m), but still 1.44 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices were higher compared to the same month of the previous year, while the pace of increase decelerated nationwide. Monthly land prices in Seoul (up 0.05%), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.10%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.15%) and Incheon (up 0.06%) continued to rise. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.12 (Mar 2011)
0.11 (Apr)
0.10 (May)
0.10 (Jun)
0.10 (Jul)
0.10 (Aug)
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.09 percent month-onmonth in August, continuing the upward trend since October 2010. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.08 (Mar 2011)
0.07 (Apr)
0.09 (May)
0.09 (Jun)
0.10 (Jul)
Land prices by region
0.09 (Aug)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
2010
Annual Annual Annual Q3
Q4
Annual Q2
2011
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Nationwide
3.88
-0.31 0.96
0.88 0.94
1.05 0.29
-0.05 0.11 0.09 0.09
0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
Seoul
5.88
-1.00 1.40
1.30 0.81
0.53 0.02
-0.25 0.39 0.12 0.12
0.15
0.12
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.05
Gyeonggi
4.22
-0.26 1.22
1.13 1.36
1.49 0.53
-0.08 0.07 0.08 0.08
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.15
0.15
Incheon
4.86
1.37 1.99
1.16 1.70
1.43 0.43
-0.10 0.02 0.06 0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.06
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in August recorded 196,000 land lots, down 0.2 percent from the previous month and up 19.9 percent from 163,000 a year earlier. Land transactions were 7.0 percent more than the five-year August average of 183,000 land lots. Monthly land transactions decreased significantly in areas such as Incheon (down 13.9%), Busan (down 6.6%), Ulsan (down 10.1%), and North Chungcheong Province (down 10.9%).
Land sales transactions
(Land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual 1 Annual1 Annual1 Oct Nov Dec Annual 1 Aug Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nationwide
Jul
Aug
208
208
203
212
207
241
187
163
208
257
191
176
244
226
212
207
196
196
Seoul
33
26
22
25
19
21
16
12
18
24
18
17
23
19
18
18
15
17
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
52
48
58
41
36
45
58
46
38
52
46
43
40
40
39
Incheon
13
13
10
14
11
12
8
7
9
11
8
9
13
11
13
10
11
9
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
38
October 2011
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in August decreased 0.3 percent month-on-month and increased 3.9 percent year-on-year. Output in services (up 0.5%, m-o-m), construction (up 1.1%, m-o-m) and public administration (up 1.8%, m-o-m) increased, but lower output in mining & manufacturing (down 1.9%, m-o-m) contributed to the overall decrease in industrial output. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index remained unchanged in August. Five components of the coincident composite index, such as the volume of imports and service activity, rose from the previous month, while three components fell, including mining and manufacturing. Components of coincident composite index in August (m-o-m) Volume of imports (1.2%), service activity (0.6%), wholesale & retail sales (0.2%), domestic shipment (0.2%), number of non-farm payroll employment (0.2%), manufacturing operation ratio (-0.3%), mining & manufacturing production index (-0.5%), value of construction completion (-1.1%)
The year-on-year leading composite index also stayed flat from the previous month. Among the components of the leading composite index, three components, including the value of construction orders, rose while seven other factors, such as the composite stock price index and ratio of job openings to job seekers, dropped. Components of the leading composite index in August (m-o-m) Value of construction orders received (17.1%), liquidity in the financial institutions (0.8%), net terms of trade (0.6%), value of capital goods imports (-0.1%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.1%p), indicator of inventory cycle (-2.2%p), value of machinery orders received (-2.3%), consumer expectations (-2.6p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-3.4%p), composite stock price (-3.8%)
2011 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May1
Jun1
Jul1
Aug1
Industrial output (m-o-m, %)
3.2
-4.7
2.8
-1.3
1.7
2.1
-2.4
-0.3
(y-o-y, %)
8.4
0.1
3.4
3.2
4.5
4.2
2.7
3.9
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
1.5
0.1
0.4
-0.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
100.8
100.6
100.6
99.9
100.2
100.6
100.9
100.9
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.7
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.0
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.6
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.2
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%)
3.0
2.3
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.0
(m-o-m, %p)
0.1
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.0
1. Preliminary
40
October 2011
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues 2012 Budget and 2011-2015 Fiscal Management Plan
The Korean government unveiled the 2012 budget based on the mid-term fiscal management plan between 2011 and 2015.
2011-2015 Fiscal management plan Fiscal conditions between 2011 and 2015 Both tax revenue and nontax revenue including fund revenue are expected to increase between 2011 and 2015, with the retention of the highest bracket of income and corporate tax rates, withdrawal of existing tax exemptions and reductions, government efforts to increase returns on its investment in shares, and a rise in social security insurance contributions. * Tax revenue (trillion won): 170.5 (2010) * Nontax revenue (trillion won): 24.3 (2010) * Fund revenue (trillion won): 96.0 (2010)
187.6 (2011) 24.5 (2011) 102.2 (2011)
204.2 (2012)
221.1 (2013)
30.2 (2012)
29.9 (2013)
108.4 (2012)
114.2 (2013)
241.7 (2014) 29.1 (2014) 120.2 (2014)
Government expenditures are expected to increase, with rising mandatory expenditures such as support for local governments, and payment of national pensions and interest on sovereign debts. They are also expected to rise as budgets for boosting the real economy and bridging gaps between large enterprises and small- and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) increase, and investment in R&D, education and others expands.
42
October 2011
Between 2011 and 2015, fiscal conditions are projected to improve compared to those between 2010 and 2014, as the 2010 fiscal balance posted a deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP, up from the expected deficit of 2.7 percent. Sovereign debts also declined 2.7 percentage points to 33.4 percent of GDP rather than the originally forecast 36.1 percent, a drop which will set favorable conditions for reaching the sovereign debt target of the lower half of the 30 percent range in 2014.
Fiscal management between 2011 and 2015 1. Key directions The fiscal management between 2011 and 2015 is aimed at recovering fiscal soundness to the pre-crisis level, while supporting the livelihood of the working class and investing for the future. Considering uncertainties in the global economy and the ageing population, it is required to achieve a fiscal balance as soon as possible. Backed by the fiscal condition, with a deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP in 2010 compared with the original outlook of a 2.7 percent deficit, the Korean government plans to achieve a fiscal balance in 2013. Government support for working classes will be focused on customized welfare to facilitate working such as daycare and education, while government investment is to be centered on nurturing future growth engines such as green growth-related industries and cultivating human resources. 2. Fiscal management Fiscal revenue including budgets and funds are expected to rise 7.2 percent a year on average between 2011 and 2015. Tax revenue accounting for most of the revenue budget is projected to rise by an average of 8.7 percent per year during the period, 1.3 percentage points more than the country’s GDP forecast of 7.4 percent.
<Fiscal revenue projection, 2011-2015>
(trillion won, %)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Change1 (%)
Fiscal revenue
314.4
344.1
375.7
395.8
415.3
7.2
- Revenue budget
212.2
234.5
259.4
273.9
286.8
7.8
187.6
205.9
224.2
242.6
262.3
8.7
24.5
28.6
35.2
31.3
24.5
0.0
102.2
109.6
116.3
121.9
128.5
5.9
Tax revenue Nontax revenue - Funds revenue 1. Annual average
To achieve a fiscal balance in 2013, fiscal expenditures will be increased at an average annual rate of 4.8 percent, 2.4 percentage points less than the fiscal revenue increase rate of 7.2 percent, while budget expenditures will be increased by 4.7 percent and funds expenditures 5.1 percent. Economic Bulletin
43
<Fiscal expenditures projection, 2011-2015>
(trillion won, %)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Change1 (%)
Fiscal expenditures
309.1
326.1
341.9
357.5
373.1
4.8
- Budget expenditures
216.3
227.0
239.1
248.9
260.0
4.7
- Funds Expenditures
92.7
99.1
102.9
108.6
113.1
5.1
1. Annual average
The consolidated fiscal balance, excluding social security funds which have a surplus account, is forecast to swing into a surplus in 2013 and maintain a moderate surplus from 2014. Meanwhile, sovereign debts are expected to be in the lower half of the 30 percent range to GDP in 2013, and to be managed in the upper half of the 20 percent range from 2014.
<Fiscal balance and sovereign debts, 2011-2015> Consolidated fiscal balance excluding social security funds
(trillion won, %) 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-25.0
-14.3
0.2
3.1
5.3
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
422.7
448.2
460.0
466.4
471.6
33.3
32.8
31.3
29.6
27.9
Percentage to GDP, % Sovereign debts Percentage to GDP, %
Tax revenue as percentage of GDP is expected to be in the 19 percent range between 2011 and 2015, reaching 19.7 percent in 2015 on the back of the withdrawal of the current tax exemption and reduction. Tax revenue including social security contributions is projected to be 25.7 percent to GDP in 2015.
<Tax revenue as percentage of GDP projections>
(%)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Tax revenue as percentage of GDP
19.3
19.2
19.4
19.5
19.7
Tax revenue including social security contributions as percentage of GDP
25.1
25.1
25.3
25.5
25.7
2012 Budget Current fiscal situation and future tasks Although the fiscal condition has been improved as Korea successfully rode out the 2008 financial crisis, the country needs to increase its fiscal soundness due to growing external uncertainties.
2007
2008
2009
2010
Fiscal balance (percentage to GDP, %)
0.7
-1.1
-4.1
-1.1
National debt (percentage to GDP, %)
30.7
30.1
33.8
33.4
44
October 2011
Despite the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s economic growth of 6.2 percent in 2010 that was higher than the expected 5.8 percent, there is a growing need to create more jobs and secure the livelihoods of vulnerable groups. In this respect, the 2012 budget centers on creating more jobs and improving the welfare system, while at the same time establishing a basis for achieving a fiscal balance in 2013. Four main focuses of the 2012 budget 1. Job creation The 2012 budget puts first priority on creating jobs and supporting those who want to work but are faced with difficult situations, by providing customized welfare services such as expanded daycare services or visiting carer services. This is to ensure that the virtuous cycle of work, economic growth, and better welfare systems can take root. 2. Better welfare The 2012 budget focuses on daycare, education, housing, and health care, so it can provide customized welfare services in each stage of peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lives. The welfare system will be improved in a way for those who want to work to focus on working by providing the most needed welfare services in each stage of life. 3. Stronger domestic demand and development of future growth engines The 2012 budget puts an emphasis on increasing domestic demand through expanded social overhead capital (SOC) investment including improvement of water quality and through more sophisticated service industries, and also on developing future growth engines by nurturing green growth-related industries and cultivating human resources. 4. Pursuit of budget balance in 2013 The Korean government will keep the spending increase at the lowest possible level until the country achieves a budget balance in 2013. In 2011, the spending increase was 2.6 percentage points less than the revenue increase. Budgets and budget allocation 1. Spending The total spending of budgets and funds in 2012 will be 326.1 trillion won, a 5.5 percent increase from the 2011 spending, but 4.0 percentage points less than the revenue increase rate of 9.5 percent.
<2012 spending>
(trillion won, %) 2011 budget
Increase from the previous year (%)
2012 budget (bill)
Increase from the previous year (%)
Total spending
309.1
5.5
326.1
5.5
- budgets
216.3
5.4
227.0
4.9
92.7
6.0
99.1
6.9
- funds
Economic Bulletin
45
2. Revenue The total revenue is expected to be 344.1 trillion won in 2012, growing 9.5 percent from 2011.
<2012 revenue>
(trillion won, %) 2011 budget
Increase from the previous year (%)
2012 budget (bill)
Increase from the previous year (%)
314.4
8.1
344.1
9.5
212.1 (187.6)
8.9 (10.1)
234.5 (205.9)
10.6 (9.7)
- funds
102.2
6.5
109.6
7.2
Total tax revenue as percentage of GDP (%)
19.3
-
19.2
-
Total revenue - budgets (tax revenue)
3. Fiscal balance and national debt The fiscal balance in 2012 is projected to post a deficit of 1.0 percent of GDP, improving 1.0 percent compared with a 2.0 percent deficit in 2011. The national debt is expected to decrease 2.3 percentage points to 32.8 percent to GDP, down from 35.1 percent in 2011.
<2012 fiscal balance and national debt>
(trillion won, %) 2011 budget
2012 budget (bill)
Consolidated fiscal balance excluding social security funds
-25.0
-14.3
(Percentage to GDP, %)
(-2.0)
(-1.0)
5.3
18.0
National debt
435.5
448.2
(Percentage to GDP, %)
(35.1)
(32.8)
Consolidated fiscal balance
4. Balanced budget in 2013 A budget balance is expected to be achieved in 2013.
<Expected budget balance>
(trillion won, %) 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Annual increase
Total revenue
314.4
344.1
375.7
395.8
415.3
7.2
Total spending
309.1
326.1
341.9
357.5
373.1
4.8
Fiscal balance (Percentage to GDP, %)
-25.0 (-2.0)
-14.3 (-1.0)
0.2 (0.0)
3.1 (0.2)
5.3 (0.3)
46
October 2011
5. Budget allocation
<Budget allocation by area>
(trillion won, %) 2011 budget (A)
2012 budget bill (B)
Change (B-A)
Change (B/A, %)
R&D
14.9
16.0
1.1
7.3
Industries, SMEs, energy (SMEs)
15.2 (6.0)
15.2 (6.2)
0.1 (0.2)
0.6 (3.1)
SOC (excluding Four Major River Restoration Projects)
24.4 (21.4)
22.6 (22.3)
-1.8 (0.9)
-7.3 (4.5)
Agriculture, fishery, food (agriculture)
17.6 (15.1)
18.1 (15.8)
0.5 (0.7)
2.7 (4.7)
Healthcare, welfare, labor
86.4
92.0
5.6
6.4
41.2 (35.3)
45.1 (38.5)
3.9 (3.2)
9.3 (9.1)
Culture, sports, tourism
4.2
4.4
0.2
5.7
Environment
5.8
6.1
0.3
6.3
31.4
33.2
1.8
5.6
Education (government support for local government-run educational institutions)
National defense Foreign relations, reunification
3.7
3.9
0.2
8.1
13.7
14.5
0.8
6.5
General public administration (government support for local governments)
52.4 (30.2)
56.6 (33.1)
4.2 (2.9)
8.2 (9.5)
Total budgets
309.1
326.1
17.0
5.5
Public order, security
Economic Bulletin
47
Economic News Briefing
US congress passes Korea-US FTA Korea and the US made substantial progress in the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) as US lawmakers cleared legislation for the trade deal. On October 12, the US House of Representatives passed the trade agreement by a vote of 278 to 151 with five abstentions. Shortly after, the Senate voted 83 to 15 to approve the deal. The vote coincided with Korean President Lee Myung-bakâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s arrival in Washington for a state visit. Although Korea and the US signed the KORUS FTA on June 30, 2007, its ratification has been delayed for more than four years. As the agreement won bipartisan support in the US, President Barack Obama is expected to sign the bill into law. Once Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s National Assembly concludes the ratification process, the KORUS FTA will go into effect 60 days after the two countries exchange letters confirming the ratification.
48
October 2011
IMF’s world economic outlook update On September 20, the international Monetary Fund (IMF) unveiled the latest edition of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) and reduced its forecast for world economic growth, assessing that the recovery has become much more uncertain since the previous forecast. The global financial institution projected that the world economy will grow by 4.0 percent in both 2011 and 2012, compared with growth of 5.1 percent in 2010. In advanced economies, growth is projected at 1.6 percent in 2011 and 1.9 percent in 2012 while that in emerging economies is forecast to reach 6.4 percent in 2011 and 6.1 percent in 2012. IMF expects Korea’s economic output to increase 4.0 percent in 2011 and 4.4 percent in 2012.
Revision of Enforcement Decree of FSCMA approved at cabinet meeting The proposed revision of the Enforcement Decree of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act (FSCMA), which aims to introduce home-grown hedge funds to Korea’s capital markets, has been approved by the Cabinet Council on September 27. The first part of the revision, which regards the creation of hedge funds, proposes that the scope of hedge fund investors be extended to individuals with risk-taking capacity. Currently, investments in private equity funds are allowed only to a limited number of qualified investors such as financial firms and pension funds. However, in order to provide more diverse investment opportunities, the revision will allow individuals who can invest 500 million won or more to join a hedge fund. The revision will allow more freedom on asset management, while tightening supervision on fund operations. The second part of the revision states that prime brokers will be allowed to conduct both trading and brokerage within the same department as trust businesses. However, the brokerage unit will be separated from other businesses within a securities firm in order to avoid conflict of interest. Another clause states that prime brokers will be allowed to extend credit loans and securities-collateralized loans to hedge funds, and can also entrust part of their custody and management to other trust companies such as banks and securities finance companies.
National debt expected to reach 422.7 trillion won by year-end Korea’s national debt is expected to reach 422.7 trillion won by the end of 2011, up by 30.5 trillion won over the corresponding period last year, a Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) report revealed on October 2. Out of the 422.7 trillion won, 404.9 trillion won will be
Economic Bulletin
49
central government debt, while 17.8 trillion won will be the net debt of provincial governments. The projected debt-to-GDP ratio for 2011 is 33.3 percent. This ratio is expected to decrease gradually, reaching the pre-crisis level of 31.3 percent by the end of 2013, and maintaining mid-20 percent levels from 2014. Meanwhile, national debt at the end of 2010 was 392.2 trillion won, with the debt-to-GDP ratio standing at 33.4 percent.
<National debt outlook for 2011~15> 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
National debt (trillion won)
422.7
448.2
460.0
466.4
471.6
Debt-to- GDP ratio (%)
33.3
32.8
31.3
29.6
27.9
Korea ranked top in global ICT development index Korea is the most advanced nation in terms of information and communications technologies (ICT), according to an annual report released by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) on September 15. The global ICT Development Index (IDI), which is a gauge of ICT development levels among ITU member nations, showed Korea as the top ranking nation, followed by Sweden, Iceland, Denmark and Finland. The Index ranks 152 countries according to their levels of ICT access, use and skills, and Korea received the top score for ICT use, while ranking second for ICT skills and tenth for ICT access. In the IDI subcategories, Korea received high scores for the percentage of households with Internet access, as well as for mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions.
50
October 2011
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
51
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 3.2 -4.3
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.8 -1.5 14.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.2 3.9
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -1.0 7.0
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 3.4 -1.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.8 25.0
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009
I II III IV
-4.2 -2.1 1.0 6.3
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-13.6 -7.1 1.8 13.1
-2.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
-7.5 -3.0 -1.0 6.2
1.6 4.3 3.2 4.0
-21.9 -18.1 -9.4 12.2
2010P
I II III IV
8.5 7.5 4.4 4.7
0.9 -2.2 -7.3 -6.7
22.2 17.8 9.8 11.1
5.9 3.4 3.4 3.0
12.5 6.8 6.8 3.4
4.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.9
29.1 30.5 26.6 15.9
2011P
I II
4.2 3.4
-8.6 1.0
9.8 7.2
2.5 2.8
-2.2 -1.1
-11.9 -6.8
11.7 7.5
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
52
October 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
53
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Production index
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.7 139.1
-0.1 16.2
116.7 133.5
-1.4 14.4
115.5 135.6
-7.8 17.4
118.3 122.9
1.8 3.9
2009
I II III IV
103.5 118.7 125.3 131.2
-15.1 -5.4 4.9 16.8
102.6 116.6 120.7 126.9
-14.4 -5.2 2.3 12.9
115.9 110.4 113.0 115.5
-6.2 -17.0 -14.3 -7.8
112.9 118.0 118.9 123.4
-1.1 1.1 2.4 4.8
2010
I II III IV
129.8 141.0 139.0 146.6
25.4 18.8 10.9 11.7
124.0 135.1 132.7 142.0
20.9 15.9 9.9 11.9
124.6 127.7 134.6 135.6
7.5 17.5 19.1 17.4
119.9 122.9 121.6 127.3
6.2 4.2 2.3 3.2
2011
I II
143.6 151.2
10.6 7.2
138.7 144.8
11.9 7.2
137.4 142.7
10.3 10.0
123.1 127.0
2.7 3.3
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
94.4 100.7 115.3 117.2 116.1 122.7 124.6 117.8 133.4 128.1 130.7 134.8
-25.3 -9.4 -10.1 -7.4 -8.2 -0.6 1.0 1.4 12.1 1.2 18.5 34.8
93.7 100.3 113.8 115.6 113.8 120.5 120.1 113.6 128.3 124.0 126.6 130.1
-23.1 -8.7 -10.7 -7.4 -7.9 0.0 -1.2 -1.0 9.1 -0.2 15.3 26.2
123.9 117.7 115.9 112.3 111.5 110.4 111.5 112.0 113.0 112.4 113.6 115.5
0.1 -5.2 -6.2 -9.8 -13.3 -17.0 -15.7 -15.1 -14.3 -16.4 -14.6 -7.8
112.1 109.9 116.7 117.1 117.6 119.2 117.9 117.0 121.8 119.3 119.3 131.6
-1.6 0.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.2 2.6 1.2 1.6 4.5 2.3 4.2 7.7
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
129.3 119.1 141.1 140.0 140.0 142.9 143.1 136.5 137.3 145.3 145.3 149.2
37.0 18.3 22.4 19.5 20.6 16.5 14.8 15.9 2.9 13.4 11.2 10.7
123.1 113.6 135.2 134.7 133.4 137.3 135.7 131.0 131.4 140.8 141.4 143.9
31.4 13.3 18.8 16.5 17.2 13.9 13.0 15.3 2.4 13.5 11.7 10.6
119.8 123.3 124.6 126.3 129.9 129.7 134.1 134.5 134.6 133.5 132.8 135.6
-3.3 4.8 7.5 12.5 16.5 17.5 20.3 20.1 19.1 18.8 16.9 17.4
118.5 116.7 124.4 121.5 123.3 124.0 122.4 120.9 121.6 123.2 123.8 134.9
5.7 6.2 6.6 3.8 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 -0.2 3.3 3.8 2.5
146.9 129.8 154.0 149.7 151.5 152.3 148.8 143.0
13.6 9.0 9.1 6.9 8.2 6.6 4.0 4.8
141.4 125.2 149.6 144.6 144.4 145.4 140.1 136.7
14.9 10.2 10.7 7.3 8.2 5.9 3.2 4.4
135.4 137.1 137.4 137.3 140.2 142.7 147.3 150.5
13.0 11.2 10.3 8.7 7.9 10.0 9.8 11.9
124.1 116.9 128.2 125.2 127.4 128.4 127.0 126.7
4.7 0.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.8
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
October 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
119.3 127.9
3.5 7.2
93.8 102.1
-3.5 8.8
74.4 81.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2009 2010 2009
I II III IV
117.0 118.0 120.1 122.2
2.8 2.5 3.5 5.0
81.7 95.3 97.8 100.3
-17.7 -7.6 2.4 10.1
67.0 74.3 77.8 78.4
2010
I II III IV
124.3 126.5 129.5 131.3
6.2 7.2 7.8 7.4
97.4 105.6 99.6 105.6
19.2 10.8 1.8 5.3
80.4 82.3 81.2 80.8
2011
I II
132.7 133.8
6.8 5.8
99.9 105.3
2.6 -0.3
83.1 81.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.9 116.9 117.1 117.7 117.7 118.5 119.3 119.8 121.1 121.6 121.9 123.1
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.5
73.7 79.8 91.6 94.1 93.3 98.4 98.8 91.0 103.6 99.1 100.5 101.2
-28.6 -10.8 -12.8 -10.1 -9.7 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 9.6 -4.8 12.4 27.0
63.7 67.3 70.0 72.5 73.7 76.6 77.7 76.4 79.3 77.8 78.0 79.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.6 123.9 125.3 125.5 126.5 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.1 132.1
5.7 6.0 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.3
97.1 88.4 106.7 106.1 103.8 107.0 105.3 96.2 97.2 106.6 105.4 104.9
31.8 10.8 16.5 12.8 11.3 8.7 6.6 5.7 -6.2 7.6 4.9 3.6
79.3 80.5 81.5 81.7 82.1 83.1 82.7 79.7 81.2 79.7 80.5 82.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
132.2 132.5 133.4 133.8 133.7 133.9 134.2 134.4
7.0 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.7 5.1 4.4 3.6
102.5 89.5 107.8 104.6 104.7 106.6 102.8 97.0
5.6 1.2 1.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.4 -2.4 -0.8
84.8 82.2 82.4 80.4 81.3 82.5 82.1 80.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
Consumer goods sales index
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
113.6 121.1
2.7 6.6
136.8 157.2
8.2 14.9
106.3 113.5
1.3 6.8
111.3 113.7
1.2 2.2
2009
I II III IV
106.5 113.4 111.9 122.4
-4.5 1.5 2.8 10.9
114.7 142.0 135.5 155.1
-11.7 5.9 7.7 34.1
103.1 107.7 94.3 120.2
-0.5 0.5 0.3 4.5
107.7 109.2 114.3 113.9
-1.4 0.4 1.8 4.0
2010
I II III IV
116.8 118.9 120.3 128.6
9.7 4.9 7.5 5.1
148.7 149.9 158.5 171.6
29.6 5.6 17.0 10.6
105.7 114.4 100.5 133.6
2.5 6.2 6.6 11.1
111.1 112.8 117.7 113.1
3.2 3.3 3.0 -0.7
2011
I II
122.7 127.7
5.1 5.7
167.9 176.2
12.9 17.5
112.2 120.8
6.1 5.6
112.0 112.4
0.8 -0.4
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 101.2 109.7 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.8 106.7 118.2 120.6 119.6 127.1
-2.9 -5.7 -4.9 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.1 0.5 6.8 9.9 9.8 12.8
104.1 116.0 124.0 123.9 144.0 158.0 138.2 122.5 145.9 144.8 153.5 167.1
-18.9 -1.5 -13.6 -10.9 5.9 24.3 -1.8 0.8 26.6 16.9 41.0 46.1
103.6 97.1 108.5 109.3 113.3 100.4 95.4 86.5 101.1 116.1 121.8 122.6
-0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.3 3.1 4.0 1.2 8.4
114.8 99.2 109.2 106.8 113.1 107.6 110.8 112.9 119.3 116.6 109.2 116.0
5.5 -8.5 -1.2 -2.5 0.7 3.0 4.4 0.8 0.4 9.4 1.4 1.5
2010
115.8 114.2 120.3 116.5 121.2 118.9 120.7 116.7 123.5 125.5 127.8 132.6
6.7 12.8 9.7 7.3 3.6 3.8 8.9 9.4 4.5 4.1 6.9 4.3
145.5 141.3 159.2 144.6 147.0 158.1 164.0 154.4 157.0 165.2 172.1 177.4
39.8 21.8 28.4 16.7 2.1 0.1 18.7 26.0 7.6 14.1 12.1 6.2
108.4 99.6 109.1 113.1 120.7 109.3 103.5 90.2 107.7 130.0 133.4 137.3
4.6 2.6 0.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 8.5 4.3 6.5 12.0 9.5 12.0
108.7 112.1 112.6 110.4 116.0 112.1 115.1 116.4 121.6 111.1 111.9 116.2
-5.3 13.0 3.1 3.4 2.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.9 -4.7 2.5 0.2
128.1 113.3 126.6 122.4 128.8 125.8 127.1 122.8
10.6 -0.8 5.2 5.1 6.3 5.8 5.3 5.2
165.9 154.2 183.5 167.4 176.4 184.9 184.6 173.3
14.0 9.1 15.3 15.8 20.0 17.0 12.6 12.2
120.4 101.6 114.6 121.5 127.0 114.0 107.5 93.8
11.1 2.0 5.0 7.4 5.2 4.3 3.9 4.0
118.9 104.3 112.7 108.7 116.3 112.2 117.6 119.3
9.4 -7.0 0.1 -1.5 0.3 0.1 2.2 2.5
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
October 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2009 2010
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
116.4 122.0
1.4 4.8
135.1 139.6
6.5 3.3
108.9 115.0
-0.9 5.6
-
2009
I II III IV
107.7 114.8 119.9 123.3
-8.3 -0.8 5.4 10.2
113.4 139.9 139.4 147.8
-14.9 2.5 13.3 29.2
105.3 104.7 112.0 113.4
-5.2 -2.5 1.7 2.2
-
2010
I II III IV
118.5 119.9 122.0 127.6
10.0 4.4 1.8 3.5
136.7 139.5 139.2 142.9
20.5 -0.3 -0.1 -3.3
111.2 112.1 115.1 121.6
5.6 7.1 2.8 7.2
-
2011
I II
120.8 117.8
1.9 -1.8
134.9 134.6
-1.3 -3.5
115.2 111.0
3.6 -1.0
-
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.6 103.8 111.7 112.6 113.5 118.4 119.0 110.9 129.7 121.7 118.5 129.6
-14.2 -2.5 -7.4 -6.0 -1.9 6.0 1.0 -0.7 15.8 1.7 10.7 18.8
99.0 115.5 125.7 120.6 140.7 158.4 146.3 125.8 146.1 139.5 146.7 157.1
-25.3 -6.2 -12.8 -16.4 2.8 23.3 8.9 6.1 25.8 9.2 32.2 50.5
111.0 99.0 106.0 109.3 102.6 102.3 108.0 104.9 123.1 114.5 107.2 118.6
-9.4 -0.8 -4.6 -0.7 -4.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 11.6 -1.8 1.7 6.8
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.7 110.3 121.6 120.5 117.5 121.8 121.9 120.5 123.6 129.3 128.3 125.3
15.0 6.3 8.9 7.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 8.7 -4.7 6.2 8.3 -3.3
136.0 129.7 144.5 135.4 135.3 147.7 145.6 133.9 138.0 145.7 144.7 138.4
37.4 12.3 15.0 12.3 -3.8 -6.8 -0.5 6.4 -5.5 4.4 -1.4 -11.9
118.8 102.6 112.3 114.6 110.4 111.4 112.4 115.2 117.8 122.8 121.8 120.1
7.0 3.6 5.9 4.8 7.6 8.9 4.1 9.8 -4.3 7.2 13.6 1.3
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 110 109
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P 9
129.6 105.9 127.0 118.6 115.7 119.1 119.9 120.4 -
4.8 -4.0 4.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.2 -1.6 -0.1 -
133.0 125.6 146.1 133.1 131.4 139.4 141.9 132.1 -
-2.2 -3.2 1.1 -1.7 -2.9 -5.6 -2.5 -1.3 -
128.2 98.0 119.4 112.7 109.4 110.9 111.1 115.7 -
7.9 -4.5 6.3 -1.7 -0.9 -0.4 -1.2 0.4 -
108 105 98 100 104 102 102 99 99
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2010
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
23,360
2,330
21,030
12,279
133.2
135.0
Manufacturing
2010
I ll III IV
5,544 6,247 5,662 5,908
525 402 380 1,023
5,019 5,845 5,282 4,885
2,910 3,564 3,026 2,779
120.5 137.5 139.1 135.6
116.7 144.2 136.2 142.8
2011
I ll
6,627 6,760
471 732
6,156 6,029
3,744 3,684
128.5 144.1
133.1 148.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,767 1,641 2,135 1,843 2,189 2,214 2,092 1,710 1,860 1,719 1,770 2,418
169 107 249 127 115 160 105 106 169 101 102 820
1,598 1,534 1,886 1,716 2,074 2,055 1,987 1,604 1,691 1,618 1,668 1,599
1,008 880 1,022 1,054 1,329 1,180 1,068 897 1,061 964 981 834
103.7 112.8 145.1 132.9 132.4 147.2 139.1 140.8 137.5 130.8 134.7 141.2
108.3 102.7 139.1 139.4 140.9 152.2 138.6 132.8 137.1 134.8 136.7 156.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
2,115 2,070 2,442 1,965 2,171 2,624 2,000 1,812
116 122 233 102 142 487 152 115
2,000 1,948 2,209 1,869 2,029 2,137 1,848 1,698
1,156 1,148 1,440 1,158 1,190 1,336 1,027 1,007
125.7 113.9 145.8 132.5 146.1 154.1 135.2 135.6
127.6 123.6 148.1 138.3 150.9 156.0 136.7 123.3
11.2
-37.9
32.3
25.1
22.5
2010
Y-o-Y change (%) 21.8
2010
I ll III IV
10.3 24.7 -0.2 11.3
-43.7 -42.2 -71.7 31.4
22.6 35.5 22.0 7.8
45.6 58.5 27.4 4.5
30.0 29.5 29.3 13.6
18.1 25.7 27.4 18.4
2011
I ll
19.5 8.2
-10.3 82.0
22.7 3.1
28.7 3.4
6.6 4.8
14.1 2.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11.8 -2.0 20.6 27.2 56.3 2.6 -16.5 26.6 2.3 9.9 -9.2 34.9
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 19.6 -68.6 -90.2 48.9 -15.5 20.8 -76.5 213.9
18.5 32.8 18.7 26.4 59.1 24.4 38.7 25.3 4.5 9.3 10.0 4.3
39.4 66.8 36.7 57.1 101.1 28.8 41.8 37.1 9.6 13.2 4.2 -3.7
26.3 23.7 38.3 32.5 28.4 27.7 31.5 41.2 17.1 21.6 13.1 7.4
27.6 5.2 22.1 24 32.1 21.8 28.1 36.9 18.8 25 19.5 12.4
2011
19.7 26.1 14.4 6.6 -0.8 18.5 -4.4 6.0
-31.5 14.0 -6.3 -19.6 23.4 205.2 44.9 8.0
25.1 27.0 17.1 8.6 -2.2 4.0 -7.0 5.8
14.6 30.4 41.0 9.8 -10.5 13.2 -3.9 12.2
22.2 1.0 0.5 -0.3 10.3 4.7 -2.8 -3.7
17.8 20.4 6.5 -0.8 7.1 2.5 -1.4 -7.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
October 2011
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
35,163
52,777
88,675
29,013
54,628
Public
92,238
2010
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completion (total)
2010
I ll llI lV
20,329 24,082 22,005 25,823
7,467 9,129 7,784 10,784
11,977 13,931 13,160 13,708
18,110 25,295 19,095 26,175
7,955 6,890 6,814 7,355
9,087 16,737 11,406 17,399
2011
I ll
19,067 23,898
7,288 9,304
10,857 13,195
15,796 24,473
4,053 6,067
10,743 16,821
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,496 6,145 7,687 7,354 7,741 8,986 7,453 7,150 7,401 7,356 8,041 10,426
2,257 2,303 2,908 2,628 2,841 3,660 2,690 2,460 2,634 2,856 3,278 4,650
3,972 3,614 4,391 4,460 4,537 4,934 4,419 4,370 4,371 4,135 4,401 5,173
7,043 4,752 6,314 6,636 8,717 9,941 7,475 4,145 7,475 4,415 7,551 14,209
2,410 2,170 3,375 1,829 1,672 3,388 3,903 1,327 1,584 1,185 2,023 4,146
4,274 2,232 2,582 4,456 6,652 5,629 3,351 2,698 5,355 3,111 5,217 9,071
6,157 5,277 7,634 7,053 7,435 9,410 6,793 6,921
2,415 2,047 2,827 2,721 2,189 3,765 2,441 2,520
3,476 2,991 4,391 3,981 4,226 4,989 4,044 4,071
4,658 4,959 7,179 6,459 6,753 11,260 4,892 7,269
1,295 1,396 1,362 1,413 1,861 2,793 1,735 1,505
2,697 2,445 5,601 4,452 4,428 7,941 3,042 5,503
2.7
8.5
-18.7
-43.7
2.8
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
2010
Y-o-Y change (%) 0.5
2010
I ll llI lV
6.3 2.0 -0.4 3.3
13.8 5.5 -1.1 15.9
3.8 2.6 1.0 -4.8
-1.6 -6.7 -3.6 -40.2
-14.9 -61.9 -22.0 -52.1
8.0 105.4 13.2 34.4
2011
I ll
-6.2 -0.8
-2.4 1.9
-9.4 -5.3
-12.8 -3.3
-49.1 -11.9
18.2 0.5
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7.2 0.8 10.5 -1.0 7.3 0.2 6.7 6.5 -11.8 0.9 -0.5 8.2
5.1 12.9 22.2 -0.1 9.6 6.7 14.0 1.4 -14.6 10.5 17.1 18.6
9.6 -3.5 5.3 1.0 7.8 -0.3 3.9 11.2 -9.8 -4.8 -9.4 -0.5
20.2 -4.6 -16.5 -14.1 17.4 -16.9 25.6 -12.5 -18.1 -58.8 -48.7 -22.5
-11.5 -22.2 -11.9 -68.7 -62.9 -56.0 23.5 -26.2 -58.0 -75.0 -61.4 -22.8
49.2 8.0 -25.8 178.8 138.3 49.8 38.3 -5.0 11.4 -45.7 -41.2 -23.9
-5.2 -14.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.0 4.7 -8.8 -3.2
7.0 -11.1 -2.8 3.5 -0.8 2.9 -9.3 2.4
-12.5 -17.3 0.0 -10.7 -6.9 1.1 -8.5 -6.8
-33.9 -16.7 13.7 -2.7 -22.5 13.3 -34.6 75.4
-46.3 -35.7 -59.6 -22.7 11.3 -17.6 -55.5 13.4
-36.9 9.5 117.0 -0.1 -33.4 41.1 -9.3 103.9
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
59
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.0 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.7
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.4
110.9 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.3
101.4 101.4 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.4 102.2 102.5 102.7 103.2
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.1 114.9 114.8 114.2 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.5 111.3 110.5
6.5 5.1 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -3.1 -3.9
119.3 119.6 119.9 119.9 120.0 119.8 119.8 120.0 120.3 120.3 118.8 116.1
103.7 103.5 103.4 102.9 102.6 102.0 101.5 101.3 101.1 100.6 99.0 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.9 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 126.4 127.2
-3.6 -2.4 -1.3 0.5 2.6 5.4 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.7 12.0
114.1 114.1 115.3 117.1 118.1 120.4 121.7 122.7 123.5 124.4 125.2 125.8
94.3 93.9 94.5 95.5 96.0 97.4 98.0 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.2 99.2
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.5 127.0 127.1 126.9 127.3 127.7 128.4 128.8 128.8 128.4 128.7 129.3
11.6 10.4 9.6 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9
126.6 127.8 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.4 132.4 132.6 132.2 131.8 132.1 133.1
99.5 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.8
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
130.1 129.8 129.4 129.0 129.5 130.2 130.8 131.0 -
3.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.0 -
135.1 135.3 135.8 135.5 136.6 137.7 138.6 139.2 -
100.8 100.6 100.5 99.9 100.3 100.6 100.9 100.9 -
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 -
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
60
October 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Current balance
Period
2009 2010P
Goods trade balance
Exports
32,790.5 28,213.6
37,866.0 41,904.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
358,189.7 464,286.9
320,323.7 422,383.1
-6,640.5 -11,229.4
2,276.7 768.4
-711.7 -3.229.4
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III IV
263.3 8,857.9 9,931.1 9,161.3
4,785.4 12,240.4 12,542.3 12,335.9
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,257.3 127,090.1
96,569.1 105,344.7 105,715.1 114,754.2
-4,201.1 -1,873.1 -2,954.6 -2,200.6
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.1 -67.6
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7 -906.4
2011P
I
2,610.3
5,842.7
127,691.2
121,848.5
-2,538.0
387.9
-1,082.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,998.9 4,330.0 4,457.9 1,975.7 3,497.5 5,112.5 1,934.4 2,114.4
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,658.4 4,841.9 5,268.9 2,826.0 4,447.4 5,484.9 3,170.8 3,680.2
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,903.4 39,223.8 42,012.2 41,939.6 43,138.3
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,591.7 35,306.3 35,861.3 35,077.4 34,776.4 36,527.3 38,768.8 39,458.1
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 147.4 -751.6 -859.3 -902.5 -1,192.8 -749.9 -304.5 -1,146.2
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2 -34.5
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7 -385.1
2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
154.7 1,126.1 1,329.5 1,277.6 2,183.9 2,030.7 3,773.6 401.3
1,557.9 1,530.8 2,754.0 3,327.6 1,633.8 2,699.6 4,728.0 480.2
42,662.8 37,228.3 47,800.4 47,879.4 47,149.8 47,693.6 48,555.9 45,794.8
41,104.9 35,697.2 45,046.4 44,551.8 45,516.0 44,994.0 43,827.9 45,314.6
-1,640.9 -569.1 -328.0 -178.8 15.5 -632.7 -690.9 -577.9
703.7 542.6 -858.4 -1,581.9 517.3 239.8 72.3 699.6
-466.0 -378.2 -238.1 -289.3 17.3 -276.0 -335.8 -200.6
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
61
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
289.6 -174.2
-68,666.4 -27,094.5
1,860.7 -2,882.1
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
746.6 -983.9 -388.6 618.5
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3 -5,443.2
-175.6 27.1 31.1 -56.8
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5 -2,487.7
-108.0 241.1 -2,251.5 -763.7
-1,379.1
730.3
6,251.6
-181.4
-3,479.2
143.8
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -2,191.7 -336.2
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8 -1,610.0
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 2,227.2 -2,412.2
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9 511.2
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -1,494.4 1,268.0
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.6
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.0 -2,879.6 -2,658.6 -1,719.3 1,890.2
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,612.6 -200.7 -929.5 -554.0 -768.2 757.2 257.3 -1,778.2
-1,282.0 -1,996.2 524.1 394.7 -3,956.7 -3,246.0 -2,469.2 -2,328.1
-1,725.4 -1,635.1 -1,335.8 -7.38.8 -1,254.7 -2,144.6 327.1 -1,036.4
904.6 -3,004.0 720.3 4,575.0 -1,140.1 -1,399.5 9,258.3 -2,923.0
569.3 -363.3 524.3 -206.2 165.1 -501.8 526.6 -1,868.6
1,773.3 5,126.9 -648.6 -145.9 -821.7 -464.9 -6,581.0 4,000.9
-120.7 -32.7 -28.0 -33.6 -49.9 -28.4 13.8 41.5
-2,683.1 -2,088.0 1,291.9 -3,055.8 -855.4 1,293.2 -6,014.0 -542.5
1,127.3 870.1 -1,853.6 -1,672.3 1,772.8 1,215.3 -1,304.4 1,926.8
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2009 2010P
-34,651.2 -25,331.5
-14,948.0 -19,379.7
49,727.7 38,552.4
-3,093.0 -7.4
2,038.9 -17,228.1
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
2010P I II III IV
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6 -8,397.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4 -8,290.7
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1 7,262.3
2011P I
-2,754.1
-4,696.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
62
October 2011
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2009 2010
112.8 116.1
113.6 118.8
112.2 114.3
112.5 114.5
110.9 115.1
111.9 117.0
109.2 106.4
137.7 145.0
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6 117.8 117.1 117.8
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8 122.1 120.4 121.9
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.0 114.9 115.0
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.6
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 109.6
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 156.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
118.9 119.8 120.4 120.4 120.4 120.6 121.4 122.5 122.6
123.8 125.1 123.1 125.7 125.1 125.3 127.0 129.1 129.6
115.8 116.4 116.6 116.9 117.3 117.5 117.8 118.1 118.1
116.3 117.1 117.4 117.6 118.2 118.6 119.0 119.4 119.6
119.7 120.5 122.0 122.4 122.3 121.9 122.4 122.8 122.9
122.7 123.9 125.8 126.2 126.0 125.5 126.0 126.7 126.9
108.6 110.6 113.5 111.8 110.2 109.4 108.0 109.4 113.1
156.1 160.9 166.5 167.6 163.9 163.2 161.4 162.1 168.1
2009 2010
2.8 2.9
3.4 4.6
2.4 4.2
3.6 1.8
-0.2 3.8
-0.5 4.6
-0.2 -2.6
-4.1 5.3
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
-5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
-2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
-12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3 7.2 5.4 6.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 12.7
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4.1 4.5 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.3 4.3
7.1 7.8 7.9 6.4 5.9 6.5 7.4 8.5 6.4
2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.8
2.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9
6.2 6.6 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.6 5.7
7.7 8.2 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.6 8.0 8.2 7.0
4.9 5.6 9.1 7.7 3.3 -0.4 -1.3 1.8 5.8
14.1 16.9 19.6 19.0 13.2 10.5 9.8 10.0 14.0
Y-o-Y change (%)
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2009 2010
24,394 24,748
23,506 23,829
3,836 4,028
17,998 18,214
3.6 3.7
16,454 16,971
9,390 10,086
5,101 5,068
1,963 1,817
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847 24,538
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109 23,684
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139 4,156
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340 18,272
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300 17,154
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334 10,347
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069 4,999
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898 1,808
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
24,114 24,431 24,918 25,240 25,480 25,592 25,473 25,257
23,196 23,336 23,846 24,303 24,661 24,752 24,636 24,495
4,148 4,149 4,122 4,108 4,137 4,135 4,079 4,031
18,007 3.8 18,019 4.5 18,244 4.3 18,536 3.7 18,731 3.2 18,812 3.3 18,844 3.3 18,739 3.0 Y-o-Y change (%)
16,832 16,856 17,065 17,357 17,626 17,720 17,667 17,510
10,305 10,390 10,543 10,618 10,708 10,716 10,718 10,710
4,848 4,781 4,782 4,928 5,064 5,132 5,137 5,031
1,680 1,684 1,740 1,812 1,854 1,872 1,811 1,769
2009 2010
0.2 1.5
-0.3 1.4
-3.2 5.0
0.5 1.2
-
1.5 3.1
4.3 7.4
0.4 -0.7
-7.4 -7.4
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.0
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.3
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.4
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -1.5
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7 -2.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.1 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.7
1.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 2.0
5.7 6.7 5.1 2.9 2.5 2.9 1.0 -0.7
1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 3.1
-
3.3 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.7
6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.5
-0.3 -1.2 -3.9 -4.3 -3.0 -0.6 -1.5 -1.8
-2.6 1.6 1.5 -1.3 -5.1 -3.4 -4.9 -0.3
Source: Statistics Korea
64
October 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2009 2010
61,739.6 67,585.1
357,344.1 399,412.3
1,508,550.4 1,639,675.1
1,937,336.0 2,096,534.8
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8 71,472.9
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8 425,673.9
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9 1,682,871.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5 2,154,538.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
73,540.8 75,432.1 73,012.7 73,206.1 73,828.5 74,705.5 74,069.7 75,642.3
429,368.1 432,482.8 430,936.6 425,420.5 423,994.7 421,885.3 418,973.1 422,649.3 Y-o-Y change (%)
1,676,448.8 1,674,390.5 1,677,475.9 1,684,792.3 1,690,543.0 1,697,204.2 1,705,451.5 1,719,437.8
2,152,814.0 2,148,254.1 2,152,736.5 2,163,485.7 2,175,557.3 2,189,729.2 2,208,624.3 2,230,191.9
2009 2010
18.1 9.5
16.3 11.8
10.3 8.7
7.9 8.2
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6 14.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8 12.9
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.2
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
13.0 13.3 11.2 13.9 8.8 12.8 10.6 12.4
12.6 11.5 11.6 9.6 7.4 5.4 3.8 5.4
6.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.2 4.0
6.6 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.5
Source: The Bank of Korea
66
October 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2009 2010
1,167.6 1,138.9
1,276.4 1,156.3
1,262.8 1,397.1
1,363.1 1,320.6
1,674.3 1,513.6
1,774.4 1,532.9
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1,114.3 1,127.9 1,107.2 1,072.3 1,080.6 1,078.1 1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5
1,120.1 1,118.1 1,122.5 1,086.8 1,083.5 1,081.3 1,059.5 1,073.2 1,118.6
1,356.6 1,380.7 1,331.9 1,313.8 1,335.6 1,335.7 1,353.2 1,396.8 1,536.6
1,356.3 1,351.0 1,376.2 1,304.8 1,333.6 1,342.8 1,333.4 1,391.4 1,456.5
1,514.0 1,549.5 1,563.5 1,591.2 1,549.7 1,560.5 1,507.9 1,547.3 1,601.4
1,495.4 1,524.6 1,572.6 1,569.4 1,551.3 1,555.4 1,515.4 1,538.7 1,542.4
-7.1 -2.5
15.8 -9.4
26.6 -3.1
-5.7 -9.6
10.4 -13.6
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
-3.6 -2.6 -2.1 -3.9 -10.0 -10.9 -11.3 -9.9 3.3
-1.6 -3.4 -1.3 -2.7 -6.8 -10.8 -12.2 -9.0 -4.1
5.4 6.3 9.4 10.7 1.3 -2.1 -1.2 -0.7 12.7
8.7 5.4 9.6 9.2 5.4 0.7 -3.2 0.8 5.2
-6.2 -1.3 3.0 7.6 5.1 5.8 -2.9 2.7 2.9
-8.1 -3.8 1.8 4.5 6.2 5.0 -1.6 1.0 1.6
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%) -9.4 10.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
67
Editor-in-Chief Hong Nam-Ki (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim Young-Min (MOSF) Shim Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee Sung-Shin (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Eli Horn (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr