Vol. 33 | No. 11
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin The Green Book : Current Economic Trends Overview
3
1. External economic situation
4
2. Private consumption
8
3. Facility investment
12
4. Construction investment
14
5. Exports and imports
16
6. Mining and manufacturing production
18
7. Service sector activity
20
8. Employment
22
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
26
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
36
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
40
Policy Issues Current financial situation of Korea: Solid enough to absorb impact from outside
42
Economic News Briefing
46
Statistical Appendices
49
The Green Book Current Economic Trends Overview Although the Korean economy has continued to recover, there are worries that inflation might remain high, and some economic indicators have posted a decline. Employment decelerated an increase in September affected by temporary factors such as Chuseok holidays, from adding 490,000 jobs in the previous month to 264,000 jobs, while the employment rate fell from 59.6 percent to 59.1 percent, and the unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.0 percent. Consumer price inflation, although the current level might be pushed up by high expected inflation and rising import prices, slowed down month-on-month in October from 4.3 percent to 3.9 percent, as the supply of agricultural, livestock & fishery products became stable. Mining and manufacturing production rose 1.1 percent from the previous month in September, while service output fell 1.6 percent affected by sluggish wholesale & retail sales and financial & insurance services. In September retail sales fell 3.2 percent from the previous month, due to a diminishing effect of Chuseok holidays which fell earlier than usual and had an effect on the previous month’s index. Facilities investment went down 2.0 percent month-on-month in September, while construction investment gained 3.8 percent. The trade surplus widened to US$4.29 billion in October from US$1.56 billion in the previous month, while exports posted a less fast year-on-year increase of 9.3 percent due to a high base effect. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index declined 0.8 percentage points from the previous month in September, as the value of construction completed and wholesale & retail sales fell. The leading composite index went down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year compared with the previous month, as the KOSPI and the consumer sentiment index dropped. In October, financial markets became stable relative to September in line with eased volatility in the international financial markets amid efforts to reinforce policy coordination for solutions to the European debt crisis. There have been remaining gaps of housing price trends between the Seoul metropolitan area and other areas in October, while rental prices slowed down an increase from the previous month from 1.8 percent to 1.1 percent. Uncertainties continued to remain in the Korean economy, amid the European debt crisis and with a possible slowdown in major economies. The Korean government will closely monitor local and global economic situations and swiftly respond to any changes, while renewing efforts to help the economy keep recovering and prices continue stabilizing. In the meantime, it will pursue active job creation and better livelihood for working class families, and push forward economic restructuring in a way to boost domestic demand and facilitate the soft-landing of household debts. Economic Bulletin
3
1. External economic situation Worries over a global economic recession has slightly eased with the US and Chinese economies posting better-than-expected performance in the third quarter. However, downward risks from the continuing European financial woes are still a main concern.
US
Amid a gradual recovery with the improvement of economic indicators, the US economy grew 2.5 percent (annualized q-o-q) in the third quarter, an increase from the previous quarter. The growth was led by a significant increase in personal consumption, which climbed 2.4 percent in the third quarter after a rise of 0.7 percent in the second quarter, with consumption of durable goods increasing 4.1 percent from the previous month’s drop of 5.3 percent. However, a considerable amount of the growth was a result of temporary factors such as the normalization of car production, which had dropped due to the Japanese earthquake and its impact on component supply chains. Contribution of car to personal expenditures (q-o-q, percentage point) -0.74 (Q2, 2011)
-0.08 (Q3)
Contribution of car to facility investment (q-o-q, percentage point) 0.14 (Q2, 2011)
0.34 (Q3)
Economic indicators, particularly industrial production and personal consumption expenditure, continued to rise. Industrial production (m-o-m, %) -0.4 (Apr 2011)
0.3 (May)
0.0 (Jun)
1.1 (Jul)
0.0 (Aug)
0.2 (Sep)
0.2 (Aug)
0.6 (Sep)
Personal consumption expenditure (m-o-m, %) 0.3 (Apr 2011)
0.2 (May)
-0.2 (Jun)
0.9 (Jul)
In October, the Federal Open Market Committee revised downward its 2011 growth forecast to the 1.6 to 1.7 percent range, after predicting 2.7 to 2.9 percent in June, although it estimated that there was a slight recovery in growth in the third quarter with an improvement in temporary factors that had restricted growth. The Federal Reserve said it would continue current policies such as Operation Twist and the freezing of the benchmark interest rate, and mentioned the possibility of additional quantitative easing such as the acquisition of mortgage-backed securities if needed. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009
20111
2010
Aug
Sep
2.5
-
-
0.7
2.4
-
-
Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Real GDP 2
-3.5
3.0
3.8
2.5
2.3
0.4
1.3
- Personal consumption expenditur
-1.9
2.0
2.9
2.6
3.6
2.1
- Corporate fixed investment
-17.8
4.4
18.6
11.3
8.7
2.1
10.3
16.3
-
-
- Housing construction investment
-16.0
14.6
22.8
-27.7
2.5
-2.4
4.2
2.4
-
-
Industrial production
-11.2
5.3
1.7
1.6
0.8
1.2
0.1
1.3
0.0
0.2
-1.7
3.8
0.8
0.9
1.4
1.5
1.0
1.2
0.2
0.6
Existing home sales
5.2
-4.5
7.5
-25.1
13.8
8.2
-4.9
-0.1
8.4
-3.0
Unemployment rate3
9.3
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
8.9
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.1
-0.3
1.6
-0.1
0.4
0.7
1.3
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.3
Retail sales
Consumer prices 1. Preliminary
4
2. Annualized rate (%)
November 2011
3. Seasonally adjusted
Source: US Department of Commerce
1-1
US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Source: US Department of Commerce
1-2
US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change) Source: US Department of Labor
1-3
US federal funds rate and consumer prices Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor
Economic Bulletin
5
China
China’s economy slightly slowed down in the third quarter, growing 9.1 percent year-on-year. Exports grew at a slower pace in line with the slowdown of the global economy, but the robust growth of domestic demand, including consumer goods sales, continued. Consumer price inflation slightly eased year-on-year to 6.1 percent in September. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Q2
20111 Q3
Aug
9.5
9.1
-
-
14.9
13.9
13.8
13.5
13.8
24.5
32.5
27.0
28.0
28.1
28.0
2009 Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
9.1
10.3
10.3
9.6
9.8
9.7
Industrial production2
11.0
15.7
16.0
13.5
13.3
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
30.5
24.5
25.5
24.5
Real GDP
2010
Sep
15.5
23.3
23.8
23.9
22.0
17.1
18.2
17.2
17.0
17.7
-16.0
31.3
40.9
32.2
24.9
26.4
22.0
20.5
24.5
17.1
Consumer prices2
-0.7
3.3
2.9
3.5
4.7
4.9
5.7
6.3
6.2
6.1
Producer prices2
-5.4
5.5
6.8
4.5
5.7
7.0
6.9
7.1
7.3
6.5
Retail sales Exports
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
Japan’s economy is rebounding from the shock of the Great East Japan earthquake, but the increase of uncertainties in the global economy such as from the European financial crisis and the strong yen are a burden to growth. On October 21, the Japanese government approved a package of measures to ease the burden on companies from the strength of the yen and to take advantage of the strong yen. (Percentage change from previous period) 2009 Annual
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales (y-o-y) Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
2010
20111 Q3
Aug
Sep
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
0.5
0.8
-0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-
-
-
0.7
-1.1
-0.1
-2.0
-4.0
4.0
0.6
-4.0
Annual
Q2
-6.3
4.0
-21.9
16.4
-2.3
2.5
3.7
3.2
-0.4
-3.0
-1.7
-
-2.6
-1.2
-33.1
24.4
33.2
17.8
10.0
2.4
-8.0
-
2.8
2.3
-1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.8
0.1
-1.4
-0.9
-
0.2
0.0
Source: Japan's Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance
Eurozone
With a comprehensive agreement to resolve the European financial crisis, the European Central Bank on November 3 lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent . At the EU summit on October 26, the region’s leaders agreed on the reduction of Greece’s debt, expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), and increased injection of capital into European banks. (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y) 1. Preliminary
6
Source: Eurostat
November 2011
2009 Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
20111 Q3
Aug
Sep
-4.1
1.8
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.8
0.2
-
-
-
-14.7
7.4
2.4
1.0
1.8
0.9
0.2
-
1.5
-
2010
-2.4
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
-
0.1
-18.1
20.1
22.3
22.8
21.8
21.5
13.4
-
12.1
-
0.3
1.6
1.5
1.7
2.0
2.5
2.8
-
2.5
3.0
1-4
China’s GDP and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
1-5
Japan’s GDP growth Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
1-6
Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat
Economic Bulletin
7
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advanced estimates) rose 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.2 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2011. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010 1
2009
Private consumption
2
q-o-q
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
0.0
0.4
5.6
-
1.4
0.9
20111
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
4.1
6.6
3.5
3.6
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.2
-
0.5
0.7
1.4
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.6
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Retail sales in September fell 3.2 percent from August, reflecting the effect of sales related to Chuseok holidays during the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, sales of durable goods, semi-durable goods and non-durable goods all rose, but the growth of overall sales slowed down. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Consumer goods sales q-o-q - Durable goods
2
ăƒťAutomobiles - Semi-durable goods - Non-durable goods4
3
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug1
Sep1
2.7
6.6
4.9
7.5
5.1
5.1
5.7
4.4
5.2
2.8
-
-
-0.1
3.3
0.8
1.1
0.2
2.3
-0.2
-3.2
8.2
14.9
5.6
17.0
10.6
12.9
17.5
10.4
12.2
6.4
21.8
11.1
-2.1
12.0
0.1
10.2
13.0
8.3
6.7
7.3
1.3
6.8
6.2
6.6
11.1
6.1
5.6
3.9
3.8
4.2
1.2
2.2
3.3
3.0
-0.7
0.8
-0.4
2.0
2.6
1.3
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
With drops in sales related to Chuseok holidays, sales at department stores fell 8.0 percent from the previous month’s rise of 7.6 percent, and those at nonstore retailers decreased 7.8 percent following a jump of 8.1 percent, while sales of large discounters and specialized retailers went down 2.9 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, sales of department stores, large discounters, specialized retailers and nonstore retailers all slowed down. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
- Department stores - Large discounters - Specialized retailers - Nonstore retailers
2
20111
2010
2009 Annual
Annual
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug1
Sep1
4.3
8.8
9.2
7.4
10.5
11.5
9.7
6.5
7.6
5.3
-2.2
4.4
4.1
7.6
0.8
3.5
5.1
2.3
3.0
0.3
3.0
5.6
1.8
7.3
4.2
4.3
4.9
3.9
3.8
1.8
8.7
15.6
17.9
11.4
13.5
11.5
9.2
9.3
15.4
6.7
1. Preliminary 2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items. Source: Statistics Korea
8
November 2011
2-1
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
2-2
Consumer goods sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
2-3
Consumer goods sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
9
Considering advanced indicators, retail sales in October may slightly recover month-on-month. Credit card use rose 17.4 percent year-on-year in October, staying on a sharp upward track, although slightly slowing down from the previous month. Sales of cars and those at department stores, both of which are susceptible to market situations, slowed down from the unease in financial markets, while sales at large discounters, which are less susceptive, rose 5.6 percent year-on-year. However, the slump in gasoline sales continued, as the price rose significantly due to the appreciation of the won. Gasoline prices (won per liter) 1,956 (4th week of Sep 2011)
1,965 (1st week of Oct)
1,970 (2nd week)
1,981 (3rd week)
1,991 (4th week)
Credit card use (y-o-y, %) 21.1 (May 2011)
19.8 (Jun)
16.6 (Jul)
19.8 (Aug)
19.7 (Sep)
17.4 (Oct1)
Department store sales (y-o-y, %) 8.7 (May 2011)
8.2 (Jun)
8.5 (Jul)
8.3 (Aug)
6.5 (Sep)
2.0 (Aug)
-1.1 (Sep)
3.8 (Oct1)
Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %) 2.4 (May 2011)
2.7 (Jun)
4.9 (Jul)
5.6 (Oct1)
Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %) -2.6 (May 2011)
-3.4 (Jun)
9.2 (Jul)
-0.3 (Aug)
1.0 (Sep)
-1.4 (Oct1)
Domestic sales of cars (y-o-y, %) 3.7 (May 2011)
6.0 (Jun)
6.1 (Jul)
3.7 (Aug)
3.8 (Sep)
-8.8 (Oct1)
Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy The Credit Finance Association Korea National Oil Corporation The Korea Customs Service Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for October data)
Domestic and external uncertainties are expected to limit the increase of retail sales even though other conditions related to consumption such as employment and inflation have been improving. Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 379 (Apr 2011)
355 (May)
472 (Jun)
335 (Jul)
490 (Aug)
264 (Sep)
Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 4.2 (Apr 2011)
4.1 (May)
4.4 (Jun)
4.7 (Jul)
5.3 (Aug)
4.3 (Sep)
3.9 (Oct)
The consumer sentiment index recovered to the benchmark level of 100, but it is improving at a slow pace. Consumer sentiment index (CSI, base=100) 98 (Mar 2011)
10
November 2011
100 (Apr)
104 (May)
102 (Jun)
102 (Jul)
99 (Aug)
99 (Sep)
100 (Oct)
2-4
Department store and discount store sales (current value) Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)
2-5
Domestic automobile sales Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)
2-6
Consumer sentiment index Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
11
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter of 2011 fell 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, and rose 1.4 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Facility investment
2
q-o-q - Machinery - Transportation equipment
2010
1
20111
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
-9.8
25.0
29.1
30.5
26.6
15.9
11.7
7.5
1.4
-
-
2.8
7.9
5.6
-1.0
-1.1
3.9
-0.4
-13.5
30.8
30.0
35.3
38.9
20.5
13.9
9.0
-
2.8
6.7
24.2
15.6
-6.6
0.6
3.2
2.0
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment in September slipped 2.0 percent month-on-month and 4.2 percent yearon-year, as investment in both machinery and transportation equipment decreased. However, the index is projected to be in good shape given leading indicators such as facility investment adjustment pressure and manufacturing operation ratio staying positive. Still, continuing uncertainties triggered by Europe’s debt crisis and worsening corporate investment sentiment are likely to limit gains. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Facility investment
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
-9.4
25.1
29.3
13.6
6.6
4.8
-3.5
-3.0
-3.4
-4.2
q-o-q, m-o-m
-
-
7.2
-5.4
-0.2
3.0
-0.9
-5.9
1.8
-2.0
- Machinery
-12.6
30.5
37.4
17.1
6.8
7.0
-3.6
-2.8
-5.4
-2.5
4.6
4.3
-0.1
-1.2
5.6
-5.7
-3.2
-4.2
8.8
-11.9
-10.3
11.2
-0.2
11.3
19.5
8.2
1.3
-4.4
6.0
3.4
- Transportation equipment Domestic machinery orders q-o-q, m-o-m
-
-
-3.6
4.1
3.6
3.9
-9.4
-16.4
1.0
-4.2
- Public
62.4
-37.9
-71.7
31.4
-10.3
82.0
5.6
44.9
8.0
-20.4
- Private
-18.2
21.8
22.0
7.8
22.7
3.1
1.0
-7.0
5.9
5.7
-16.6
40.4
40.0
26.3
8.0
10.5
9.2
12.5
11.3
3.3
Manufacturing operation ratio
-3.5
8.8
1.8
5.3
2.6
-0.3
-0.1
-2.4
0.7
1.7
Facility investment adjustment pressure2
-3.7
9.5
3.4
4.6
4.1
1.6
1.2
-0.6
1.1
3.2
Machinery imports
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)
2011
Business survey indices (base=100) for manufacturing facility investment projections Source: The Bank of Korea
12
November 2011
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
102
103
103
100
98
96
3-1
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
3-2
Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average) Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
3-3
Machinery imports Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)
Economic Bulletin
13
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the third quarter of 2011 rose 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter, and dropped 4.2 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 20101
2009
20111
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
3.4
-1.4
4.3
-2.3
-3.1
-2.9
-11.9
-6.8
-4.2
-
-
2.0
-4.2
-0.8
-1.0
-6.7
1.6
2.2
- Building construction
-2.3
-2.9
4.5
-5.1
-6.3
-2.8
-11.3
-3.7
-
- Civil engineering works
11.6
0.5
4.0
1.0
1.7
-2.9
-12.7
-10.4
-
Construction investment
2
q-o-q
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
The value of construction completion (constant) in September declined 1.7 percent year-onyear due to a drop in civil engineering works, but increased 3.8 percent month-on-month. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2009
Value of construction completion(constant)
20111
2010
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
1.6
-3.3
-6.8
-4.3
-12.6
Q2
Q31
-6.6
1
-8.6
1
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
-14.6
1
-9.4
-1.7
1
-
-
-4.3
-1.6
-4.6
3.5
-6.1
-16.5
0.9
3.8
- Building construction
-6.4
-7.1
-12.3
-8.5
-15.2
-8.41
-8.1
-14.31
-10.6
0.9
- Civil engineering works
16.1
2.2
1.9
1.2
-9.2
-4.31
-9.3
-14.91
-7.8
-5.3
5.0
-18.7
-3.6
-40.2
-12.8
-3.3
0.9
-34.6
75.4
-5.0
q-o-q, m-o-m
Construction orders (current value)
-
-
-1.4
-22.9
12.8
9.8
8.2
-30.4
65.8
-25.5
-14.2
-9.9
-1.3
-46.4
-9.7
-4.0
8.6
-41.8
87.7
4.1
44.3
-29.5
-7.0
-29.9
-17.0
-1.5
-11.0
-26.7
50.7
-22.4
-12.9
19.3
-14.3
18.1
21.5
3.8
58.7
31.4
87.8
59.2
q-o-q, m-o-m - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
Construction investment is forecast to slightly rebound considering recovery signs in housing markets such as increasing building permissions and diminishing number of unsold houses. As of September 30, housing building permits increased 83.3 percent year-on-year.
2009
Unsold houses
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Jul
Aug
Sep
123,000
89,000
70,000
69,000
68,000
Yet, the trend needs to be tracked closely, since leading indicators such as construction orders turned negative and business sentiment of construction industries remains weak. 2011
Business survey indices (base=100) for construction projections Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea
14
November 2011
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
80.4
76.8
64.1
74.0
72.2
69.0
4-1
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
4-2
Construction completed and housing construction Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed) Kookmin Bank (housing construction)
4-3
Leading indicators of construction investment Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders) Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)
Economic Bulletin
15
5. Exports and imports Exports in October increased 9.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$47.36 billion. The index grew relatively slow year-on-year in October due to a base effect from the same period of the previous year when exports soared. The average daily exports posted a similar level to the previous month’s. Export increase (September 23.4
October, US$ billion)
24.2 (average between 2000 and 2009), 39.4
43.3 (2010)
By regional category, exports to Japan (up 25.5%), the ASEAN countries (up 21.8%), China (up 14.9%) and the Middle East (up 15.7%) posted a double-digit growth, while those to the EU (down 20.1%) and the US (down 3.4%) decreased due to the global debt concerns. By business category, exports of petroleum products (up 29.0%), automobiles (up 18.9%), and steel products (up 20.5%) stayed on an upward track, while those of semiconductors (down 4.3%) and LCDs (down 2.2%) remained negative. (US$ billion) 2009
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
363.53
466.38
101.08
120.24
116.32
128.75
131.00
142.72
141.57
46.83
47.36
-13.9
28.3
35.8
33.1
22.7
23.8
29.6
18.7
21.7
18.8
9.3
1.16
1.70
1.51
1.76
1.72
1.79
1.99
2.08
2.05
2.13
2.10
323.08
425.21
98.16
105.63
105.70
115.73
123.73
134.38
134.97
45.27
43.07
-25.8
31.6
37.4
42.8
24.6
24.6
25.9
27.2
22.3
29.3
16.4
11.6
1.46
0.47
1.54
1.57
1.61
1.87
1.96
2.05
2.06
1.91
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in October increased 16.4 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$43.07 billion. Imports of commodities decreased to US$26.8 billion from US$28.6 billion in the previous month since international commodity prices had fallen and the won against the dollar had dropped, leading to a slow year-on-year increase. 2011 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
CRB index (average)
344.6
331.3
318.4
310.8
Won against dollar (average)
1,059
1,073
1,119
1,155
The current account surplus (preliminary) in October was US$4.29 billion, posting a monthon-month increase. (US$ billion) 2009
Trade balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
November 2011
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep
Oct1
40.45
41.17
2.93
14.61
10.62
13.02
7.26
8.33
6.60
1.56
4.29
5-1
Exports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-2
Imports (customs clearance basis) Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
5-3
Trade balance Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)
Economic Bulletin
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production in September increased 1.1 percent month-on-month and 6.8 percent year-on-year in line with brisk semiconductors and parts. By business category, semiconductors and parts (up 7.3%) and non-metallic minerals (up 3.3%) increased month-on-month, while machinery (down 6.6%) and automobiles (down 1.7%) went down. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio decreased month-on-month by 1.8 percentage points, as the inventory added 0.2 percent and the shipments 1.8 percent. By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 11.3%) and primary metals (up 2.5%) increased month-on-month, while those of automobiles (down 2.5%) and groceries (down 5.1%) declined. The inventories of semiconductors and parts (up 1.4%) and refined petroleum products (up 9.8%) climbed month-on-month, while those of computers (down 14.4%) and machinery (down 4.3%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector gained 0.9 percentage points to 81.3 percent, 3.0 percentage points higher than the average of 78.3 percent between 2000 and 2010. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) 2010
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
Q3
Sep
Q2
Q3
-
1.1
0.6
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
-1.9
1.1
(y-o-y)
16.2
10.9
2.9
7.2
5.1
3.9
4.7
6.8
- Manufacturing
16.7
11.2
2.8
7.4
5.1
3.8
4.7
7.0
∙ICT
Annual Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and manufacturing activity2
2011 1
25.2
19.1
13.5
10.5
5.5
3.4
2.7
10.4
∙Automobiles
23.1
11.3
-3.1
12.1
16.2
11.8
22.8
15.2
Shipment
14.4
9.9
2.4
7.2
4.9
3.1
4.2
7.5
- Domestic demand
11.5
6.6
-2.2
3.8
2.5
1.0
2.6
3.9
3
- Exports
18.2
14.5
8.6
11.6
8.0
5.7
6.2
11.8
Inventory4
17.4
19.1
19.1
10.0
10.4
9.8
11.8
10.4
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity
81.2
81.2
81.2
81.4
81.3
82.1
80.4
81.3
7.2
7.8
7.4
5.8
3.9
4.4
3.6
3.8
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity, and gas industry 3. Information and Communications Technology 4. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to continue a moderate recovery, given the favorable export situations. However, it may possibly be affected by global uncertainties. Daily exports (US$ billion) 2.16 (May 2011)
2.03 (Jun)
1.89 (Jul)
1.90 (Aug)
2.13 (Sep)
2.11 (Oct)
Automobile production (thousand) 389 (May 2011)
438 (Jun)
392 (Jul)
320 (Aug)
374 (Sep)
OECD leading indicator (base=100) 102.3 (May 2011)
18
November 2011
101.9 (Jun)
101.4 (Jul)
100.8 (Aug)
415 (Oct)
6-1
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-2
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
6-3
Inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
19
7. Service sector activity Service activity in September decreased 1.6 percent from the previous month due to sluggish wholesale & retail sales, transportation services, and financial & insurance services. On a year-on-year basis, service activity rose 3.8 percent. With Chuseok holidays this year falling about 10 days earlier than usual, the output increase of holiday-related services was already reflected in the previous month, dragging down the index in September. Service activities in wholesale & retail sales (down 3.4%) and transportation services (down 1.5%), both of which are susceptible to holidays, fell due to Chuseok holidays. Due to volatility amid the ongoing global fiscal crisis, such as declining stock prices, financial & insurance services (down 2.9%) dropped significantly. KOSPI (points) 2,172.3 (August 1)
1,880.1 (August 31)
1,769.7 (September 30, down 18.5% from August 1)
Stock-market trading value (trillion won) 178.7 (August)
128.3 (September, down 28.2% from August 1)
Real estate & renting declined 1.8 percent month-on-month and 3.5 percent year-on-year, continuing the downward trend. (Percentage change from same period in previous year) Weight
2009
2010
Annual Annual
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q31
Aug1
Sep1
4.2
2.3
3.2
2.7
3.3
4.2
4.9
3.8
100.0
1.8
- Wholesale & retail sales
21.8
-0.4
5.7
5.6
5.0
4.7
4.0
4.8
3.4
4.7
2.4
- Transportation services
9.0
-6.6
12.0
14.3
10.1
10.0
7.2
3.5
4.2
4.7
4.0
- Hotels & restaurants
7.7
-1.4
1.2
0.7
1.3
1.7
-0.6
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.4
- Information & communications services
8.4
0.9
1.9
0.4
2.2
3.6
3.9
3.4
5.2
5.9
5.7
Service activity index
- Financial & insurance services
3.9
2011
Q2
15.3
7.8
4.6
2.5
1.4
8.2
7.2
8.2
8.9
11.0
8.0
- Real estate & renting
6.3
5.3
-8.6
-2.4
-15.9
-24.2
-17.7
-11.5
-3.3
-3.0
-3.5
- Professional, scientific & technical services
4.8
1.2
-0.5
2.1
-3.9
-1.3
-3.6
-1.4
3.8
3.7
7.5
- Business services
2.9
-3.0
7.5
8.1
7.6
8.6
5.7
5.5
2.7
2.3
1.0
- Educational services
10.8
2.1
2.0
1.4
0.5
3.1
1.1
0.2
2.0
2.7
1.3
- Healthcare & social welfare services
6.0
10.4
8.8
11.0
8.6
4.6
6.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.7
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.5
-0.4
-0.1
-0.4
2.7
2.4
1.2
2.1
1.0
2.2
- Membership organizations
3.8
-2.1
4.3
6.0
5.0
4.5
2.9
2.4
1.5
1.1
1.3
- Sewerage & waste management
0.4
3.7
5.1
6.0
1.7
6.4
0.0
-3.1
0.2
7.1
-0.8
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service activity is expected to improve in October as a low base effect from the previous month is removed when the index was affected by Chuseok holidays, and with stabilizing financial markets.
20
November 2011
es
usin ty m ess ana sup gem port ent serv & ices Edu cati ona l se rvic es Hea lthc are &s ocia l we Ente serv lfare rtai ices nme nt, c ultu ral & sp Me serv orts & o mbersh ices ther ip o pers rgan ona izat l se ions rvic , re es pair Sew mat erage eria , w ls re aste cove ma ry & nage rem men edi t, acti ation vitie s
Prof
& re ntin g ess iona l , tech scie nica ntif Bus l se ic & ines rvic s fa es cili b
rvic
s
ns
rant
ion
atio
e se
tate
ranc
l es
insu
stau
unic
& re
omm
els
ex
tail
rtat
& re
spo
ale
Tran
oles
&c
Rea
l&
tion
ncia
rma
Fina
Info
Hot
Wh
7-3
l ind
7-2
Tota
7-1 Service industry
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Wholesale and retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
September 2011 service industry by business
Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)
Economic Bulletin
21
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in September increased by 264,000 from a year earlier to 24,320,000 and the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) stayed flat year-on-year to 59.1 percent. By status of workers, the number of regular workers (up 547,000) continued to increase. Meanwhile, daily workers (down 213,000) and unpaid family business employees (down 98,000) temporarily plummeted due to Chuseok holidays. As the employment survey was carried out from September 11 to 17, working days and working hours were affected by Chuseok holidays, which fell in the survey week. By industry, services (up 434,000) such as health & welfare (up 120,000), and professional, scientific & technical services (up 88,000) led the upward trend. Meanwhile, employment in manufacturing (down 48,000) and construction (down 50,000) accelerated the decline as a result of fewer workings days due to Chuseok holidays.
2009 Annual Number of employed (million)
2010
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
2011
Q3
Q4
Sep
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
23.51 23.63 23.83 23.04 24.17 24.12 23.99 24.05 23.46 24.57 24.48 24.50 24.32
Employment rate (%)
58.6
58.7
58.7
57.0
59.6
59.3
58.9
59.1
57.4
59.9
59.5
59.6
59.1
(seasonally adjusted)
58.6
58.5
58.7
58.3
58.9
58.9
58.6
58.7
58.8
59.2
59.1
59.5
58.6
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
-72
-6
323
132
433
369
358
249
423
402
363
490
264
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery)
-34
110
405
296
518
414
393
307
451
39
414
529
323
-126
-49
191
61
172
262
269
252
228
112
-12
-28
-48
- Construction
-91 -107
33
-61
44
92
57
49
-3
-41
-35
-1
-50
- Services
179
261
200
- Agriculture, forestry & fishery
-38 -116
- Wage workers
247
385
∙Regular workers
383 22
- Manufacturing
∙Temporary workers
313
325
83
80
32
224
331
472
572
434
-82 -164
-85
-45
-35
-58
-28
3
-51
-38
-59
517
371
623
541
532
416
519
421
392
462
275
515
697
651
766
671
699
611
605
621
572
559
547
105
-34
-37
42
-26 -114
-45
-88 -137
-76
-91
-60
-63 -104
-6
-213
∙Daily workers
-158 -235 -146 -243 -185 -104
-53 -151
2
- Non-wage workers
-319 -391 -194 -239 -189 -172 -174 -167
-96
-19
-29
-28
-11
∙Self-employed workers
-259 -279 -118 -106
-91 -130 -146 -131 -115
-39
34
53
88
31
89
181
117
188
207
212
161
266
221
208
267
181
- Female
-103
-94
142
15
245
163
146
88
157
181
155
223
83
- 15 to 29
-127
-77
-43
-12
-58
-44
-57
-58
-49
-74
-1
39
2
- 30 to 39
-173 -149
-4
-42
-13
21
17
-7
-34
-13
-83
-93
-104
- Male
- 40 to 49
-24
-46
29
-21
48
40
50
26
77
59
46
61
12
- 50 to 59
198
230
294
251
342
295
287
262
286
294
270
300
241
54
37
47
-44
114
57
60
26
143
137
131
182
114
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
22
November 2011
8-1
Number of employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-2
Share of employed by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-3
Share of employed by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
23
The number of unemployed persons in September decreased by 100,000 year-on-year to 758,000 and the year-on-year unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) dropped 0.4 percentage points to 3.0 percent. The youth unemployment rate fell 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3 percent.
2009
2010
Annual
Q4
Number of unemployed (thousand)
889
817
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
119
60
31
80
25
- Male
Annual
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
Sep
868
873
808
857 1,028
222
-75
-13
-10
32
-7
83
-47
-48
-16
920 1,130
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
865
786
762
758
-101
-3
-88
-69
-100
-40
-70
-32
-48
-37
-39
- Female
40
36
38
139
-29
35
6
72
-32
29
-40
-32
-61
Unemployment rate (%)
3.6
3.3
3.7
4.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.4
4.2
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.0
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.6
3.5
3.7
4.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.9
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.2
- 15 to 29
8.1
7.6
8.0
9.5
7.7
7.6
7.1
7.2
8.8
7.9
6.7
6.3
6.3
- 30 to 39
3.6
3.3
3.5
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.2
3.5
4.0
3.5
3.2
3.4
3.1
- 40 to 49
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.9
2.3
2.5
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.2
2.5
3.2
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.2
- 60 or more
1.6
1.5
2.8
5.8
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
4.5
2.3
2.1
1.8
2.2
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in September was up 294,000 from a year earlier to 16,070,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points year-onyear to 61.0 percent. The number of workers quitting jobs due to rest, time-off and leisure (up 202,000), housework (up 248,000), and childcare (up 25,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to education (down 50,000) and old age (down 32,000) decreased.
2009 Annual
2011
2010
Q4
Annual Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Sep
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep
Economically inactive population (million) 15.70 15.83 15.84 16.25 15.49 15.66 15.96 15.77 16.39 15.56 15.85 15.86 16.07 Labor force participation rate (%)
60.6
60.7
61.0
59.8
61.8
61.5
60.8
61.2
59.9
62.0
61.5
61.4
61.0
(seasonally adjusted)
60.6
60.6
61.0
61.0
61.0
61.1
60.8
60.9
61.1
61.3
61.0
61.3
60.6
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
447
456
143
166
146
128
133
199
138
66
191
47
294
15 -125 -118 -126 -149 -107 -160
-44
-16
17
19
25
143
- Childcare
40
- Housework
148
235
201
237
175
203
189
229
130
27
78
248
- Education
31
-36
12
-74
23
46
55
54
-16
-39
-78 -125
-50
- Old age
88
92
80
193
59
43
25
28 -103
-58
-22
-12
-32
123
123
-56 -187
-27
15
-27
68
163
193
162
202
- Rest, time-off and leisure Source: Statistics Korea
24
November 2011
241
8-4
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-5
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
8-6
Economically active population Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)
Economic Bulletin
25
9. Financial market 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock price index in October rose 7.9 percent month-on-month to 1,909 points from the previous month’s 1,770 points. Due to weak investment sentiment affected by spreading concerns over a possible Greek default, the Korean stock market fell to 1,667 points on October 5, showing high volatility. The index rose rapidly thereafter, boosted by the European Central Bank’s decision on October 6 to inject liquidity, measures agreed at the EU summit in Brussels on October 26 to resolve Europe’s debt problems, and the improvement in US GDP growth in the third quarter. Foreign investors shifted to a net-buying position of 1.2 trillion won from the previous month’s net-selling position of 1.4 trillion won. (End-period, point, trillion won) KOSPI Sep 2011
Oct 2011
Stock price index
1,769.7
1,909.0
Market capitalization
1,001.9
1,081.8
Average daily trade value
6.4
Foreign stock ownership
32.9
KOSDAQ Change
Sep 2011
Oct 2011
Change1
+139.4 (+7.9%)
449.7
490.7
+41.0 (+9.1%)
+79.9 (+8.0%)
93.2
102.0
+8.8 (+9.5%)
6.7
+0.3 (+4.5%)
2.19
3.04
+0.8 (+38.8%)
33.1
+0.2 (+0.6%)
9.9
9.1
-0.8 (-7.8%)
1
1. Change from the end of the previous month
9.2 Exchange rate The won/dollar exchange rate in October decreased 68.1 won to wrap up the month at 1,110.0 won from 1,178.1 won at the end of September. As EU leaders reached an agreement on Greek haircuts and an expanded European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), worries over the eurozone crisis eased and won/dollar exchange rate stabilized. Due to Japan’s currency market intervention on October 31, the yen weakened and the won/100 yen exchange rate dropped 141 won from the end of the previous month. (End-period) 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sep
Oct
Change1
Won/Dollar
936.1
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,178.1
1,110.0
+2.2
Won/100 Yen
828.6
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,539.0
1,398.0
-0.3
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
26
November 2011
9-1
Stock prices
9-2
Foreign exchange rate (month-end)
9-3
Recent foreign exchange rate
Economic Bulletin
27
9.3 Bond market The 5-year Treasury bond yields dropped 3 basis points in October to 3.63 percent from the previous month’s 3.66 percent. Although flight to safety assets have declined helped by eased concern over the fiscal crisis in Europe, the Treasury bond yields slightly fell as concerns over foreign investment outflow and the key interest rate froze. (End-period) 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Aug
Sep
2011 Oct
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
4.60
5.02
3.02
2.01
2.51
3.27
3.28
3.26
-2
CD (91 days)
4.86
5.82
3.93
2.88
2.80
3.59
3.58
3.57
-1
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.92
5.74
3.41
4.44
3.38
3.49
3.55
3.51
-4
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.29
6.77
7.72
5.56
4.27
4.23
4.36
4.35
-1
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
5.00
5.78
3.77
4.98
4.08
3.62
3.66
3.63
-3
1. Basis point, changes in October 2011 from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market The M2 (monthly average) in August expanded 4.0 percent from a year earlier excluding cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. The month-on-month M2 growth increased 3.2 percent, helped by equity-type funds inflows, expanded business sector credit extension, and a decrease in money withdrawal by the government sector. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
M1
2
M2 Lf
3
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
2010 Annual
Q1
2011
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Jun
Jul
Aug 4
Aug1 422.64
-1.8
16.3
11.8
14.5
10.7
10.8
11.2
7.4
5.4
3.8
5.4
14.3
10.3
8.7
9.4
9.5
8.6
7.4
3.7
3.0
3.2
4.04
1,719.44
4.6
4
2,230.24
11.9
7.9
8.2
8.5
9.1
8.2
7.1
4.4
4.1
5.5
1. Balance at end August 2011, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) 4. Preliminary
In September, bank deposits grew at a faster pace, helped by solid growth in time deposits, a shift to net issuance of bank debentures, and decelerated decline in instant access account deposits. Meanwhile, asset management company (AMC) deposits showed slower growth. It was attributable to the deceleration of growth in equity-type funds and MMF compared to the previous month, affected by banks’ fund withdrawals. (Monthly change, end-period, trillion won) 2009 Annual
2010 Sep
Annual
2011 Sep
Jul
Aug
Sep
Sep1
Bank deposits
54.8
16.5
36.9
-3.3
7.1
3.9
6.8
1,085.9
AMC deposits
-27.6
-18.3
-16.7
-2.0
0.6
4.4
3.0
1,309.1
1. Balance at end September, trillion won
28
November 2011
9-4
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea
9-5
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea
9-6
Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end) Source: The Bank of Korea * Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.
Economic Bulletin
29
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account surplus (preliminary) in September posted US$3.1 billion, significantly expanding the growth from the previous month’s US$ 290 million. The goods account accelerated the surplus to US$2.37 billion from the previous month’s US$370 million, helped by increasing working days and robust exports of petroleum products and automobiles. The service account shifted to a surplus for the first time in four months as the travel account and business service account improved. The primary income account surplus narrowed to US$540 million from the previous month’s US$700 million, owing to increasing interest payments. Meanwhile, the secondary income account reversed to a surplus of US$120 million from the deficit of US$200 million a month earlier, affected by decreased overseas remittance. (US$ billion) 2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Aug
Sep1
Current account
32.79
28.21
0.26
8.86
9.93
9.16
2.61
5.49
7.17
0.29
3.10
- Goods balance
37.87
41.90
4.79
12.24
12.54
12.34
5.84
7.66
7.47
0.37
2.37
- Service balance
-6.64
-11.23
-4.20
-1.87
-2.96
-2.20
-2.54
-0.80
-1.20
-0.58
0.07
- Income balance
2.28
0.77
0.55
-1.01
1.30
-0.07
0.39
-0.82
1.31
0.70
0.54
- Current transfers
-0.71
-3.23
-0.87
-0.50
-0.95
-0.91
-1.08
-0.55
-0.42
-0.20
0.12
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in September registered an outflow of US$4.50 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) 0.39 (Apr 2011)
-3.96 (May)
-3.25 (Jun)
-2.47 (Jul)
-1.69 (Aug)
-4.50 (Sep1)
1. Preliminary
The direct investment account accelerated the outflow to US$2.10 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$1.04 billion due to increasing overseas direct investment by locals. The portfolio investment account shifted to an inflow of US$1.77 billion from the previous month’s outflow of US$2.92 billion as the net inflow of debt securities investment funds continued while the net outflow of foreign investor funds for equity securities investment decreased. The financial derivatives account decelerated the outflow to US$150 million from the previous month’s US$1.87 billion. Meanwhile, the other investment account shifted to an outflow of US$17.09 billion from the previous month’s inflow of US$4.64 billion as local banks’ investment in short term overseas funds increased. The current account in October is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by a continuing goods account surplus.
30
November 2011
10-1 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-2 Travel balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
10-3 Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)
Economic Bulletin
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices Consumer prices in October rose 3.9 percent from the previous year and 0.2 percent from the previous month. The year-on-year increase rate was 0.4 percentage points lower than September’s 4.3 percent. The price increase of agricultural, livestock & fishery products moderated, along with those of personal services. However, prices of certain agricultural products such as chili powder rose, and house rents were up from the levels in September. Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 3.7 percent year-onyear and 0.2 percent month-on-month. Consumer prices for basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.2 percent compared to the same month of the previous year. Expected inflation remained at high levels, while the upward trend in import prices accelerated. Expected inflation (%) 3.9 (Jun 2011)
4.0 (Jul)
4.2 (Aug)
4.3 (Sep)
4.2 (Oct)
Import price increases (m-o-m, %, won) 9.8 (Jul 2011)
10.0 (Aug)
14.0 (Sep)
Consumer price inflation
(%) 2010
2011
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Month-on-Month
0.2
-0.6
0.6
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.9
0.1
-0.2
Year-on-Year
4.1
3.3
3.5
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.7
5.3
4.3
3.9
Core consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.9
1.8
2.0
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.7
(m-o-m)
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.2
Consumer prices for basic necessities (y-o-y)
4.8
3.6
3.9
4.7
5.2
4.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
4.8
5.2
3.8
3.2
Source: Statistics Korea
The prices of most agricultural, livestock & fishery products fell (down 3.6%, m-o-m) as supply chains stabilized, but those of chili powder rose as a result of small harvest. Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products in October (m-o-m, %) Radish (-50.6), spinach (-42.9), Chinese cabbage (-38.3), pork (-12.3), mackerel (-10.2), egg (-7.5), rice (4.4), chili powder (10.4)
Industrial product prices stabilized overall (down 0.1%, m-o-m), despite strength in oil product and processed food prices. Rents continued to rise (up 0.4%, m-o-m) due to strong demand for rental housing. Price increases in personal services, which include dining out costs, have regained stability, rising 0.1 percent month-on-month.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors
Month-on-Month (%) Contribution (%p)
Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
-0.2
-3.6
0.1
-3.3
0.4
0.5
0.1
-0.16
-0.35
0.03
-0.05
0.03
0.08
0.03
Industrial products
Oil products
Housing rents
Public utility
Personal services
Year-on-Year (%)
3.9
-1.7
7.6
29.1
4.9
1.1
3.2
Contribution (%p)
3.90
-0.17
2.35
0.37
0.37
0.18
1.11
Source: Statistics Korea
32
November 2011
11-1 Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer prices, core inflation) & The Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11-2 Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
11-3 Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trend)
Economic Bulletin
33
11.2. International oil and commodity prices In October, international oil prices edged down while domestic oil product prices rose from the previous month. International oil prices were slightly lower compared to September, reflecting continued uncertainties in the global economy. However, prices have been inching up since midOctober affected by the US economy posting accelerated growth in the third quarter (2.5% annualized rate) and with US and OECD crude oil inventories decreasing. US crude oil inventories in October (Energy Information Administration, as of Oct 21) 338 million barrels (down 8.3% y-o-y, down 0.4% m-o-m)
OECD crude oil inventories in August (International Energy Agency, as of end-Oct) 2.692 billion barrels (down 11.2% m-o-m) (US$/barrel, period average) 2008
2009
2010
Annual
Annual
Annual
2011 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Dubai crude
94.3
61.9
78.1
115.8
108.0
107.5
110.2
105.0
105.7
103.5
Brent crude
97.5
61.7
79.7
123.3
114.3
114.0
116.8
110.0
111.5
109.1
WTI crude
99.9
61.9
79.5
110.0
101.3
96.3
97.3
86.3
85.6
86.5
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Due to the belated effect of the weakening won, domestic oil product prices rose despite lower international oil prices. Won/dollar exchange rate in October 1,081 (Jun 2011)
1,060 (Jul)
1,073 (Aug)
1,119 (Sep)
1,155 (Oct) (Won/liter, period average)
2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual
Annual
Annual
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Gasoline prices
1,692
1,601
1,710
1,951
1,938
1,915
1,935
1,946
1,945
1,978
Diesel prices
1,614
1,397
1,503
1,793
1,773
1,736
1,754
1,758
1,746
1,772
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Prices of international commodities decreased in October, due to recession fears led by the European financial crisis and poor economic indicators of major countries. Despite production disruptions caused by strikes at copper mines in Indonesia and Peru, non-ferrous metal prices fell due to concerns about lower demand, as the chinese economy might slow down. Prices of non-ferrous metals in October (m-o-m, %) Electrolytic copper (-12.1), nickel (-7.5), aluminum (-5.6), tin (-3.8)
International grain prices fell due to expectations of increased production and inventories. World grain production/inventory outlook for 2011~12 (USDA, Oct) Production: 2.278 billion tons (up 0.5%, m-o-m) Inventories: 459 million tons (up 3.7%, m-o-m)
Prices of grain in October (m-o-m, %) Wheat (-9.4), soybean (-9.4), corn (-8.9), raw sugar (-3.4)
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2008
2009
Annual
Annual
Annual
2010 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2,536
2,079
2,553
3,246
3,128
3,143
3,145
3,038
2,978
2,781
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities
34
November 2011
2011
Source: KOREA PDS
11-4 International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
11-5 International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service
11-6 International commodity prices Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index) * CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
Economic Bulletin
35
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market The upward trend of nationwide apartment sales prices slightly moderated in October, with prices rising 0.5 percent month-on-month. Apartment sales prices in the Seoul metropolitan area remained unchanged for the third consecutive month. Apartment sales price increases decelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, in particular Busan (up 0.8%, m-o-m), Daegu (up 1.0%, m-o-m) and Gangwon Province (up 1.2%, m-o-m). Apartment prices in 5 metropolitan cities and other cities climbed 1.0 percent and 1.2 percent each, surpassing the national average.
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2.3
1.6
2.5
0.6
1.1
1.3
1.2
Seoul
3.2
2.6
-2.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
-0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.04 -0.04 -0.05 -0.02
Gangnam2
-1.9
3.9
-1.8
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.07 -0.06 -0.06 -0.04
Gangbuk3
9.4
0.9
-2.7
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.00
Seoul metropolitan area
2.9
0.7
-2.9
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0 -0.1 -0.1
0.0
0.0 0.0 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 -0.02
5 metropolitan cities
1.0
2.8
8.7
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.2
1.4
1.4 1.0
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
0.7
Aug Sep Oct Oct31 Oct101 Oct171 Oct241
Nationwide
1. Weekly trends
1.0
Jul
0.6
1.6
0.7
1.4
0.7 0.5
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.13
0.31 0.31 0.31 0.32
Source: Kookmin Bank
Nationwide apartment rental prices in October were up 1.1 percent, decelerating from the previous month’s 1.8 percent. Price increases moderated in Seoul (up 1.0%, m-o-m), Gyeonggi Province (up 1.1%, m-o-m) and the Seoul metropolitan area (up 1.1%, m-o-m). Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.5), Seocho (0.7), Songpa (1.1), Gangdong (2.4)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Nationwide Seoul Gangnam
4.5
8.8
1.1
2.0
2.3
1.6
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.1
0.35 0.30 0.25 0.18
8.1
7.4
1.1
2.1
1.8
0.7
0.3
0.5
1.1
1.7
2.2
1.0
0.29 0.25 0.17 0.05
8.8
1.3
1.9
1.4
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.2
1.7
2.1
0.9
0.27 0.15 0.15 0.01
0.5
5.4
5.6
1.0
2.4
2.3
0.8
0.4
0.2
1.0
1.8
2.3
1.2
0.31 0.36 0.19 0.10
-0.4
5.6
7.2
1.0
2.1
2.4
1.2
0.5
0.5
0.9
1.6
2.0
1.1
0.33 0.24 0.16 0.07
3.9 12.0
1.3
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.9
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.1
0.34 0.34 0.32 0.33
5 metropolitan cities 1. Weekly trends
Oct Oct31 Oct101 Oct171 Oct241
0.8
Gangbuk3 Seoul metropolitan area
Aug Sep
-1.8
-3.6 10.4
2
Jul
1.6
2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul
3. Northern Seoul
Source: Kookmin Bank
Apartment sales transactions in September decreased 2.1 percent from the previous month’s 44,049 to 43,118. The transactions were up 28.0 percent from 33,685 a year earlier.
Apartment sales transactions
(Monthly average, thousand)
2007 2008 2009
2010
2011
Annual Annual Annual Annual Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nationwide
38
39
44
40
32
Source: Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
36
November 2011
31
34
41
54
63
45
52
59
56
48
47
Jul 43
Aug Sep 44
43
12-1 Real estate prices Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
12-2 Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)
12-3 Apartment prices by region Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)
Economic Bulletin
37
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in September rose for the eleventh consecutive month (up 0.09%, m-o-m), but still 1.35 percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008. Land prices were higher compared to the same month of the previous year, when the prices fell 0.04 percent. The pace of increase slightly accelerated nationwide. Monthly land prices in Seoul (up 0.05%), the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.09%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.13%) and Incheon (up 0.05%) continued to rise. Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.11 (Apr 2011)
0.10 (May)
0.10 (Jun)
0.10 (Jul)
0.10 (Aug)
0.09 (Sep)
Land prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.11 percent month-onmonth in September, continuing the upward trend since October 2010. Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.07 (Apr 2011)
0.09 (May)
0.09 (Jun)
0.10 (Jul)
0.09 (Aug)
Land prices by region
0.11 (Sep)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2007 2008
2009
Annual Annual Annual Q3
2010 Q4
2011
Annual Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nationwide
3.88
-0.31 0.96
0.88 0.94
1.05 -0.05
0.11 0.09 0.09 0.11
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
Seoul
5.88
-1.00 1.40
1.30 0.81
0.53 -0.25
0.39 0.12 0.12 0.15
0.12
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.05
Gyeonggi
4.22
-0.26 1.22
1.13 1.36
1.49 -0.08
0.07 0.08 0.08 0.10
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.13
Incheon
4.86
1.37 1.99
1.16 1.70
1.43 -0.10
0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.06
0.05
Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Nationwide land transactions in September recorded 181,000 land lots, down 7.7 percent from the previous month and up 24.6 percent from 145,000 a year earlier. Land transactions were 3.6 percent more than the most recent five-year September average of 188,000 land lots. Monthly land transactions decreased significantly in areas such as Busan (down 14.6%), Gwangju (down 12.9%), Daejeon (down 12.5%), and South Gyeongsang Province (down 17.6%).
Land sales transactions
(Land lot, thousand)
2007 2008
2009
2010
2011
Annual 1 Annual1 Annual1 Nov Dec Annual 1 Sep Nov Dec Jan Nationwide
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
208
208
203
207
241
187
145
208
257
191
176
244
226
212
207
196
196
181
Seoul
33
26
22
19
21
16
11
18
24
18
17
23
19
18
18
15
17
16
Gyeonggi
49
45
46
48
58
41
32
45
58
46
38
52
46
43
40
40
39
39
Incheon
13
13
10
11
12
8
7
9
11
8
9
13
11
13
10
11
9
9
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
38
November 2011
12-4 Land and consumer prices since 1970s Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
12-5 Land prices by region Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)
12-6 Land trade volume Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)
Economic Bulletin
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in September decreased 0.1 percent month-on-month and increased 4.6 percent year-on-year. Mining & manufacturing (up 1.1%, m-o-m), public administration (up 3.8%, m-o-m) and construction (up 3.8%, m-o-m) increased, but lower output in services (down 1.6%, m-o-m) contributed to the overall decrease in industrial output. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.8 points in September. Among the components of the coincident composite index, the volume of imports rose, while six components, such as the value of construction completion and wholesale & retail sales, fell compared to the previous month. Components of coincident composite index in September (m-o-m) Volume of imports (0.3%), service activity (0.0%), number of non-farm payroll employment (-0.2%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.4%), manufacturing operation ratio (-0.5%), wholesale & retail sales (-0.9%), domestic shipment (-0.9%), value of construction completion (-4.7%)
The year-on-year leading composite index fell 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among the components of the leading composite index, liquidity in the financial institutions rose from the previous month, but eight other components, including the composite stock price index and value of machinery orders received, dropped. Components of the leading composite index in September (m-o-m) Liquidity in the financial institutions (0.8%), indicator of inventory cycle (0.0%p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.1%p), net terms of trade (-0.4%), value of capital goods imports (-1.5%), consumer expectations index (-2.0p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-2.2%p), composite stock price (-4.7%), value of construction orders received (-5.2%), value of machinery orders received (-7.2%)
2011 Feb Industrial output (m-o-m, %)
Mar
Apr
May
Jun1
Jul1
Aug1
Sep1
-4.7
2.8
-1.3
1.7
1.7
-1.6
-0.2
-0.1
(y-o-y, %)
0.1
3.4
3.2
4.4
4.0
3.1
4.4
4.6
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.1
0.4
-0.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.4
-0.4
100.6
100.6
99.9
100.2
100.6
100.9
100.9
100.1
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
-0.2
0.0
-0.7
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.0
-0.8
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.1
-0.2
2.3
1.6
1.0
1.3
1.7
2.0
1.9
1.5
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
0.3
0.4
0.3
-0.1
-0.4
12 month smoothed change in leading composite index (%) (m-o-m, %p) 1. Preliminary
40
November 2011
13-1 Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-2 Leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea
13-3 Coincident and leading composite indices Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
41
Policy Issues Current Financial Situation of Korea: Solid Enough to Absorb Impact from Outside
With mounting concern over the spread of the European crisis and a subsequent global crisis that may follow, it would be necessary to examine the financial situation of Korea, for whether the country can absorb external shocks or not will depend on its financial capability as well as fiscal soundness.
Current situation 1) Fiscal situation Korea’s fiscal situation have shown better-than-expected improvement since it overcame the 2008 global financial crisis, backed by tightly controlled expenditures and rising tax revenues. * Expenditure increase (annual, %): 6.5 (average between 2005 and 2007), 10.8 (2008), 14.8 (2009), -3.0 (2010), 5.5 (2011) * Tax revenue increase (annual, %): 11.1 (average between 2005 and 2007), 3.6 (2008), -1.7 (2009), 8.0 (2010), 10.1 (2011)
The country has posted relatively fast fiscal recovery compared to major economies.
(percentage to GDP)
Consolidated fiscal balance excluding social security funds National debt
42
November 2011
2011-2015, plan
2009 outcome
2010 outcome
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-4.1
-1.1
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
33.8
33.4
35.1
32.8
31.3
29.6
27.9
* Fiscal balance (percentage to GDP, 2009 * National debt (percentage to GDP, 2009
2010): -8.2
-7.7 (OECD average), -4.4
-1.1 (Korea)
2010): 90.9
97.6 (OECD average), 33.8
33.4 (Korea)
2) Current situation compared with that when the Asian financial crisis broke out With sustained efforts to reform the economy after the Asian financial crisis, the Korean economy has considerably improved. Corporate financial soundness has been significantly improved as excessive borrowing has been removed, while corporate governance that fits the global standard has taken root in line with increased accounting transparency. * Corporate borrowing ratio (debt to capital, %): 424.6 (1997), 129.8 (2008), 114.8 (2010) * Corporate capital ratio (capital to total asset, %): 19.0 (1997), 43.5 (2008), 46.6 (2010)
As a result of persistent efforts to reform the financial industry and to impose more efficient and effective supervision on it, the financial sector has begun to appear in good shape. * Banks’ BIS capital ratio (%): 7.04 (1997), 12.3 (2008), 14.6 (2010), 14.4 (2011 as of June) * Banks’ nonperforming loan (%): 5.8 (1997), 1.14 (2008), 1.90 (2010), 1.73 (2011 as of June)
Korea’s foreign exchange reserves have significantly increased thanks to the current account surplus, while reliance on short-term foreign debt has decreased. The country’s sovereign credit rating has also steadily improved. * Foreign reserves (US$ billion): 20.4 (1997), 201.2 (2008), 291.6 (2010), 311.0 (2011 as of October) * Short-term foreign debt (%): 38.1 (1997), 47.2 (2008), 37.5 (2010), 37.6 (2011 as of September) * Sovereign credit rating (S&P): AA- (1997), B+ (December 1997), BB+ (February 1998), BBB- (January 1999), BBB (November 1999), BBB+ (November 2001), A- (July 2002), A (July 2005)
More flexible and efficient regulations concerning labor-management relations have been adopted, resulting in increased productivity and less disputes. Such regulations include allowing multiple unions in one work place, setting up a presidential committee to help improve work environment, and approving labor force adjustment through cuts or reassignment. * Labor-management disputes: 98 (1997), 108 (2008), 86 (2010), 22 (2011 as of June) * Working days lost due to disputes (thousand): 445 (1997), 809 (2008), 511 (2010), 183 (2011 as of June)
Efforts to efficiently run public firms such as through a performance-based pay system and privatization have produced a positive outcome. Between 1998 and 2002, eight public firms and their 50 subsidiaries completed M&As, while 22 government-run companies were merged or rearranged. Seven public firms have been privatized and 36 rearranged under the current administration.
Economic Bulletin
43
3) Foreign capital movement There were foreign capital outflows of 7.2 trillion won from Korea’s equity market and of 6.5 trillion won from the local branches of foreign banks in August and September during which the US credit rating was downgraded. However, into October the foreign capital situation stabilized in line with growing expectations over the easing of the European debt crisis. * Net foreign equity investment (trillion won): -5.9 (August 2011), -1.3 (September 2011), 1.0 (October) * Net foreign bond investment (trillion won): 0.1 (August 2011), 0.0 (September), 1.6 (October) * Capital movement in banks (August-September 2011 -6.04
3.58 (Domestic banks), -8.67
October, US$ billion):
1.09 (Local branches of foreign banks)
Korea’s bond market has steadily grown, as the fiscal and foreign exchange conditions have been in good shape and long-term investors such as Asian central banks have increased. * Net foreign bond investment (US$ billion): -13.4 (September-December 2008), 1.5 (August-October 2011)
Still, there are remaining uncertainties in the global economy. The Korean government will always be prepared for the possibility of sudden capital movements. 4) Currency swaps with Asian countries expanded As a way to respond to external uncertainties, Korea has recently expanded currency swap agreements with Japan and China, from the equivalent of US$13 billion to 70 billion for the wonyen swap agreement and from US$26 billion to 56 billion for the won-yuan swap agreement. In addition to efforts to enhance foreign liquidity capacity, the Korean government will continue to pursue stronger fundamentals for the economy, through such efforts as to keep corporate and household debt under control, carry out restructuring fit to each industry, and boost the financial soundness of financial and foreign exchange sectors. In particular, the government prioritizes achieving fiscal balance in 2013.
Fitch’s upgrading of the economy Korea’s sovereign credit rating has been upgraded from A+ with Stable Outlook to A+ with Positive Outlook on November 7, 2011 by Fitch Ratings. * Korea’s sovereign rating by Fitch: A+ with Negative Outlook (November 2008) Outlook (September 2009)
A+ with Stable
A+ with Positive Outlook (November 2011)
Korea’s sound fiscal conditions and balance of payments situation as well as its economy’s fast recovery are behind the upgrade, according to Fitch. Moderate public debt and longstanding fiscal prudence are both key rating strengths, along with rising foreign reserves and
44
November 2011
decreasing reliance on short-term debt, said the rating agency, adding that high competitiveness of the country’s exporters and its flexible foreign exchange system have offset the risks posed by the volatile global economic and financial environment. Still, high levels of household debt and export-dependency, along with a heavy external debt refinancing burden in 2012 could have a negative influence on the economy. The upgrading of the sovereign credit rating is expected to raise ratings of the country’s financial institutions, as well as improve borrowing conditions for corporations and banks. In addition, it is likely to positively affect the country’s equity and bond markets by boosting foreign investor confidence in the Korean economy.
Future challenges and efforts to address them Korea puts first priority on achieving fiscal balance in 2013 and maintaining the national debt below the upper 20 percent range to GDP after 2014, for the country needs to be prepared for rising welfare costs accompanied by an ageing population. Government’s efforts to reach the targets center on broadening the tax base, increasing efficiency in spending budgets, and reforming the fiscal management system. To broaden the tax base, the government has removed unnecessary tax exemptions and reductions, encouraged honest reporting of income, and sought new sources of tax revenue. * Tax reduction (trillion won/ratio to total tax revenue): 23.0/12.5 (2007), 28.8/14.7 (2008), 31.1/15.8 (2009), 30.0/14.4 (2010), 30.6/13.7 (2011, preliminary), 32.0/13.4 (2012, outlook)
To spend budget more wisely, the government will continue to evaluate fiscal projects and rearrange similar projects. As of the end of 2010, evaluation was completed on 482 projects, out of which 132, or 27.4 percent, were put under budget cut. To achieve fiscal balance as planned, the total expenditure increase will be strictly controlled 3 percentage points below the total revenue increase until fiscal balance is reached. The government will keep predicting the long-term fiscal outlook and improve statistical methods used in fiscal management.
Economic Bulletin
45
Economic News Briefing
Korea grows 0.7% in Q3 (Advanced) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.7 percent in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the previous quarter. It grew 3.4 percent from a year earlier. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fishing decreased by 6.1 percent due to decreased fish catches and sluggish cultivation affected by torrential rainfall. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector expanded by 1.3 percent, led by metal products and transportation equipment. Service output grew by 0.3 percent as gains in financial consulting and information & communication offset a decline in real estate and renting. On the expenditure side, private consumption grew by 0.6 percent due to increased expenditures on durable and non-durable goods. Facility investment decreased by 0.4 percent, as investment in semiconductor manufacturing equipment fell. Construction investment grew by 2.2 percent. Exports rose by 1.4 percent, driven by automobiles and metal products. Imports also expanded by 1.8 percent. Real gross domestic income (GDI) rose by 0.8 percent.
46
November 2011
Korea ratifies KORUS FTA Korea’s National Assembly ratified a free-trade agreement (FTA) with the US on November 22. The bill was passed by 151 votes to seven in a parliamentary session. The parliament also approved a package of 14 related measures. Although Korea and the US signed the KORUS FTA on June 30, 2007, its ratification has been delayed for more than four years. After renegotiating the automobile section of the deal, the US congress passed the trade deal last month. As Korea has finalized the trade pact, the KORUS FTA is expected to enter into force next January. The trade agreement will promote the further integration of the Korean and US economies and expand business opportunities for both countries.
Korea expands currency swap with Japan and China President Lee Myung-bak and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda agreed at a summit held on October 19 to expand the currency swap between Korea and Japan to US$70 billion. The previous agreement consisted of a US$10 billion currency swap line agreed under the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and US$3 billion worth of won-to-yen swaps. The Bank of Korea and Bank of Japan are to expand the amount of won-to-yen swaps from the current US$ 3 billion to US$ 30 billion. The two countries will also add US$ 30 billion worth of dollar-local currency swaps while maintaining the US$10 billion CMI currency swap line. Meanwhile, the currency swap agreement between the Bank of Korea and the People’s Bank of China has been expanded from 38 trillion won (180 billion yuan, equivalent to US$ 26 billion) to 64 trillion won (360 billion yuan, equivalent to US$ 56 billion). The three-year agreement will expire on October 25, 2014. In a statement released on October 26, the Bank of Korea said the agreement would help ease the negative impact of increased global uncertainties, while contributing to the promotion of Korea-China trade.
Economic Bulletin
47
Korea climbs eight notches in business climate ranking The World Bank released its annual report titled “Doing Business 2012,” in which Korea was rated 8th place among 183 countries in terms of business environment. According to the report, Korea ranked 6th among OECD members, 3rd within the G20 countries and in East Asia. Korea previously ranked 27th in 2005, 23rd in 2008, 19th in 2009, and 16th in 2010. Korea moved up eight notches this year and ranked in the top 10 for the first time. In addition, the 2012 report includes a case study on Korea’s policy efforts to improve the business environment.
<Dong business indicators for Korea> Doing Business 2012 Rank Doing Business 2011 Rank
Change in Rank
Starting a Business
24
59
+35
Dealing with Construction Permits
26
27
+1
Getting Electricity
11
9
-2
Registering Property
71
74
+3
8
8
-
Protecting Investors
79
74
-5
Paying Taxes
38
40
+2
4
10
+6
Getting Credit
Trading Across Borders Enforcing Contracts
2
4
+2
Resolving Insolvency
13
13
-
Korea announces modified HSK The Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced on October 19 the amendments to the Harmonized System of Tariff Classification of Korea (HSK). The new version, which will go on effect on January 1, 2012, is based on the fifth edition of the HS Convention (HS 2012) and will put Korea’s product classification system in line with international standards while reflecting changes such as the introduction of new products and trade practices. In the 2012 version of HSK, the total number of Korea’s tariff lines at the HS 10-digit level has been expanded from 5,025 to 5,205 (329 created, 176 deleted), while that at the HS 6-digit level went up from 11,900 to 12,232 (968 created, 636 deleted). The HS is an internationally standardized system of names and numbers for classifying traded products developed and maintained by the World Customs Organization (WCO).
48
November 2011
Statistical Appendices Tables & Figures 1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment, and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Economic Bulletin
49
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Period
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Gross fixed capital formation
Final consumption expenditure
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
2.8 4.6 4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.2
-5.4 9.1 1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 3.2 -4.3
5.4 10.0 6.2 8.1 7.2 2.8 -1.5 14.6
0.5 1.0 4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.2 3.9
Construction
Facilities
4.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -1.0 7.0
8.5 1.3 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 3.4 -1.4
-1.5 3.8 5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.8 25.0
2003
I II III IV
3.5 1.8 2.0 3.9
0.7 -1.6 -9.6 -8.0
5.4 3.1 4.3 8.5
2.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4
5.1 4.7 2.8 5.0
8.2 8.4 8.3 9.0
2.9 -0.7 -5.8 -2.2
2004
I II III IV
5.2 5.9 4.8 2.7
8.2 7.6 8.3 11.6
10.9 12.9 10.4 6.2
-0.1 1.3 1.0 1.8
2.3 4.9 3.1 -1.4
5.3 4.2 1.2 -3.5
-0.6 6.4 7.7 1.8
2005
I II III IV
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
2006
I II III IV
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
2007
I II III IV
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
2008
I II III IV
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009
I II III IV
-4.2 -2.1 1.0 6.3
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-13.6 -7.1 1.8 13.1
-2.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
-7.5 -3.0 -1.0 6.2
1.6 4.3 3.2 4.0
-21.9 -18.1 -9.4 12.2
2010P
I II III IV
8.5 7.5 4.4 4.7
0.9 -2.2 -7.3 -6.7
22.2 17.8 9.8 11.1
5.9 3.4 3.4 3.0
12.5 6.8 6.8 3.4
4.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.9
29.1 30.5 26.6 15.9
2011P
I II III
4.2 3.4 3.4
-8.6 1.0 -2.6
9.8 7.2 6.0
2.5 2.8 2.5
-2.2 -1.1 -1.6
-11.9 -6.8 -4.2
11.7 7.5 1.4
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
50
November 2011
Growth rate by economic activity
Growth rate by expenditure on GDP
Economic Bulletin
51
2. Production, shipment and inventory See graphs 6-1, 6-3, 7-1, 7-2 & 7-3 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2009 2010
Production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Shipment index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Inventory index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Service production index
Y-o-Y change (%)
119.7 139.1
-0.1 16.2
116.7 133.5
-1.4 14.4
115.5 135.6
-7.8 17.4
118.3 122.9
1.8 3.9
2009
I II III IV
103.5 118.7 125.3 131.2
-15.1 -5.4 4.9 16.8
102.6 116.6 120.7 126.9
-14.4 -5.2 2.3 12.9
115.9 110.4 113.0 115.5
-6.2 -17.0 -14.3 -7.8
112.9 118.0 118.9 123.4
-1.1 1.1 2.4 4.8
2010
I II III IV
129.8 141.0 139.0 146.6
25.4 18.8 10.9 11.7
124.0 135.1 132.7 142.0
20.9 15.9 9.9 11.9
124.6 127.7 134.6 135.6
7.5 17.5 19.1 17.4
119.9 122.9 121.6 127.3
6.2 4.2 2.3 3.2
2011
I II III
143.6 151.2 146.1
10.6 7.2 5.1
138.7 144.8 139.2
11.9 7.2 4.9
137.4 142.7 148.6
10.3 10.0 10.4
123.1 127.0 126.7
2.7 3.3 4.2
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
94.4 100.7 115.3 117.2 116.1 122.7 124.6 117.8 133.4 128.1 130.7 134.8
-25.3 -9.4 -10.1 -7.4 -8.2 -0.6 1.0 1.4 12.1 1.2 18.5 34.8
93.7 100.3 113.8 115.6 113.8 120.5 120.1 113.6 128.3 124.0 126.6 130.1
-23.1 -8.7 -10.7 -7.4 -7.9 0.0 -1.2 -1.0 9.1 -0.2 15.3 26.2
123.9 117.7 115.9 112.3 111.5 110.4 111.5 112.0 113.0 112.4 113.6 115.5
0.1 -5.2 -6.2 -9.8 -13.3 -17.0 -15.7 -15.1 -14.3 -16.4 -14.6 -7.8
112.1 109.9 116.7 117.1 117.6 119.2 117.9 117.0 121.8 119.3 119.3 131.6
-1.6 0.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.2 2.6 1.2 1.6 4.5 2.3 4.2 7.7
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
129.3 119.1 141.1 140.0 140.0 142.9 143.1 136.5 137.3 145.3 145.3 149.2
37.0 18.3 22.4 19.5 20.6 16.5 14.8 15.9 2.9 13.4 11.2 10.7
123.1 113.6 135.2 134.7 133.4 137.3 135.7 131.0 131.4 140.8 141.4 143.9
31.4 13.3 18.8 16.5 17.2 13.9 13.0 15.3 2.4 13.5 11.7 10.6
119.8 123.3 124.6 126.3 129.9 129.7 134.1 134.5 134.6 133.5 132.8 135.6
-3.3 4.8 7.5 12.5 16.5 17.5 20.3 20.1 19.1 18.8 16.9 17.4
118.5 116.7 124.4 121.5 123.3 124.0 122.4 120.9 121.6 123.2 123.8 134.9
5.7 6.2 6.6 3.8 4.8 4.0 3.8 3.3 -0.2 3.3 3.8 2.5
146.9 129.8 154.0 149.7 151.5 152.3 148.7 142.9 146.7
13.6 9.0 9.1 6.9 8.2 6.6 3.9 4.7 6.8
141.4 125.2 149.6 144.6 144.4 145.4 135.9 136.5 141.2
14.9 10.2 10.7 7.3 8.2 5.9 3.1 4.2 7.5
135.4 137.1 137.4 137.3 140.2 142.7 147.2 150.4 148.6
13.0 11.2 10.3 8.7 7.9 10.0 9.8 11.8 10.4
124.1 116.9 128.2 125.2 127.4 128.4 127.0 126.8 126.2
4.7 0.2 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.9 3.8
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
52
November 2011
3. Production capacity and operation ratio See graph 6-2
Period
Y-o-Y change (%)
Operation ratio index (2005=100)
Y-o-Y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
119.3 127.9
3.5 7.2
93.8 102.1
-3.5 8.8
74.4 81.2
Production capacity index (2005=100)
2009 2010 2009
I II III IV
117.0 118.0 120.1 122.2
2.8 2.5 3.5 5.0
81.7 95.3 97.8 100.3
-17.7 -7.6 2.4 10.1
67.0 74.3 77.8 78.4
2010
I II III IV
124.3 126.5 129.5 131.3
6.2 7.2 7.8 7.4
97.4 105.6 99.6 105.6
19.2 10.8 1.8 5.3
80.4 82.3 81.2 80.8
2011
I II III
132.7 133.8 134.6
6.8 5.8 3.9
99.9 105.3 99.5
2.6 -0.3 -0.1
83.1 81.4 81.3
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.9 116.9 117.1 117.7 117.7 118.5 119.3 119.8 121.1 121.6 121.9 123.1
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 5.5
73.7 79.8 91.6 94.1 93.3 98.4 98.8 91.0 103.6 99.1 100.5 101.2
-28.6 -10.8 -12.8 -10.1 -9.7 -2.8 -1.0 -1.3 9.6 -4.8 12.4 27.0
63.7 67.3 70.0 72.5 73.7 76.6 77.7 76.4 79.3 77.8 78.0 79.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.6 123.9 125.3 125.5 126.5 127.4 128.6 129.7 130.1 130.8 131.1 132.1
5.7 6.0 7.0 6.6 7.5 7.5 7.8 8.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.3
97.1 88.4 106.7 106.1 103.8 107.0 105.3 96.2 97.2 106.6 105.4 104.9
31.8 10.8 16.5 12.8 11.3 8.7 6.6 5.7 -6.2 7.6 4.9 3.6
79.3 80.5 81.5 81.7 82.1 83.1 82.7 79.7 81.2 79.7 80.5 82.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
132.2 132.5 133.4 133.8 133.7 133.9 134.2 134.4 135.1
7.0 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.7 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.8
102.5 89.5 107.8 104.6 104.7 106.6 102.8 96.9 98.9
5.6 1.2 1.0 -1.4 0.9 -0.4 -2.4 0.7 1.7
84.8 82.2 82.4 80.4 81.3 82.5 82.1 80.4 81.3
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
53
4. Consumer goods sales index See graphs 2-2, 2-3, 2-4 & 2-5 (constant prices, 2005 = 100)
Period
2009 2010
Consumer goods sales index
Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Semi-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
113.6 121.1
2.7 6.6
136.8 157.2
8.2 14.9
106.3 113.5
1.3 6.8
111.3 113.7
1.2 2.2
2009
I II III IV
106.5 113.4 111.9 122.4
-4.5 1.5 2.8 10.9
114.7 142.0 135.5 155.1
-11.7 5.9 7.7 34.1
103.1 107.7 94.3 120.2
-0.5 0.5 0.3 4.5
107.7 109.2 114.3 113.9
-1.4 0.4 1.8 4.0
2010
I II III IV
116.8 118.9 120.3 128.6
9.7 4.9 7.5 5.1
148.7 149.9 158.5 171.6
29.6 5.6 17.0 10.6
105.7 114.4 100.5 133.6
2.5 6.2 6.6 11.1
111.1 112.8 117.7 113.1
3.2 3.3 3.0 -0.7
2011
I II III
122.7 125.7 125.6
5.1 5.7 4.4
167.9 176.2 175.0
12.9 17.5 10.4
112.2 120.8 104.4
6.1 5.6 3.9
112.0 112.4 120.1
0.8 -0.4 2.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 101.2 109.7 108.6 117.0 114.6 110.8 106.7 118.2 120.6 119.6 127.1
-2.9 -5.7 -4.9 -4.2 1.7 7.6 1.1 0.5 6.8 9.9 9.8 12.8
104.1 116.0 124.0 123.9 144.0 158.0 138.2 122.5 145.9 144.8 153.5 167.1
-18.9 -1.5 -13.6 -10.9 5.9 24.3 -1.8 0.8 26.6 16.9 41.0 46.1
103.6 97.1 108.5 109.3 113.3 100.4 95.4 86.5 101.1 116.1 121.8 122.6
-0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 1.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.3 3.1 4.0 1.2 8.4
114.8 99.2 109.2 106.8 113.1 107.6 110.8 112.9 119.3 116.6 109.2 116.0
5.5 -8.5 -1.2 -2.5 0.7 3.0 4.4 0.8 0.4 9.4 1.4 1.5
2010
115.8 114.2 120.3 116.5 121.2 118.9 120.7 116.7 123.5 125.5 127.8 132.6
6.7 12.8 9.7 7.3 3.6 3.8 8.9 9.4 4.5 4.1 6.9 4.3
145.5 141.3 159.2 144.6 147.0 158.1 164.0 154.4 157.0 165.2 172.1 177.4
39.8 21.8 28.4 16.7 2.1 0.1 18.7 26.0 7.6 14.1 12.1 6.2
108.4 99.6 109.1 113.1 120.7 109.3 103.5 90.2 107.7 130.0 133.4 137.3
4.6 2.6 0.6 3.5 6.5 8.9 8.5 4.3 6.5 12.0 9.5 12.0
108.7 112.1 112.6 110.4 116.0 112.1 115.1 116.4 121.6 111.1 111.9 116.2
-5.3 13.0 3.1 3.4 2.6 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.9 -4.7 2.5 0.2
128.1 113.3 126.6 122.4 128.8 125.8 127.1 122.8 127.0
10.6 -0.8 5.2 5.1 6.3 5.8 5.3 5.2 2.8
165.9 154.2 183.5 167.4 176.4 184.9 184.6 173.3 167.1
14.0 9.1 15.3 15.8 20.0 17.0 12.6 12.2 6.4
120.4 101.6 114.6 121.5 127.0 114.0 107.5 93.6 112.2
11.1 2.0 5.0 7.4 5.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 4.2
118.9 104.3 112.7 108.7 116.3 112.2 117.6 119.4 123.2
9.4 -7.0 0.1 -1.5 0.3 0.1 2.2 2.6 1.3
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
November 2011
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index See graph 2-6
Period
2009 2010
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2005=100) Y-o-Y change (%)
Durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Non-durable goods
Y-o-Y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
116.4 122.0
1.4 4.8
135.1 139.6
6.5 3.3
108.9 115.0
-0.9 5.6
-
2009
I II III IV
107.7 114.8 119.9 123.3
-8.3 -0.8 5.4 10.2
113.4 139.9 139.4 147.8
-14.9 2.5 13.3 29.2
105.3 104.7 112.0 113.4
-5.2 -2.5 1.7 2.2
-
2010
I II III IV
118.5 119.9 122.0 127.6
10.0 4.4 1.8 3.5
136.7 139.5 139.2 142.9
20.5 -0.3 -0.1 -3.3
111.2 112.1 115.1 121.6
5.6 7.1 2.8 7.2
-
2011
I II III
120.8 117.8 120.7
1.9 -1.8 -1.1
134.9 134.6 136.5
-1.3 -3.5 -1.9
115.2 111.0 114.4
3.6 -1.0 -0.6
-
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.6 103.8 111.7 112.6 113.5 118.4 119.0 110.9 129.7 121.7 118.5 129.6
-14.2 -2.5 -7.4 -6.0 -1.9 6.0 1.0 -0.7 15.8 1.7 10.7 18.8
99.0 115.5 125.7 120.6 140.7 158.4 146.3 125.8 146.1 139.5 146.7 157.1
-25.3 -6.2 -12.8 -16.4 2.8 23.3 8.9 6.1 25.8 9.2 32.2 50.5
111.0 99.0 106.0 109.3 102.6 102.3 108.0 104.9 123.1 114.5 107.2 118.6
-9.4 -0.8 -4.6 -0.7 -4.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.7 11.6 -1.8 1.7 6.8
84 85 84 98 105 106 109 114 114 117 113 113
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
123.7 110.3 121.6 120.5 117.5 121.8 121.9 120.5 123.6 129.3 128.3 125.3
15.0 6.3 8.9 7.0 3.5 2.9 2.4 8.7 -4.7 6.2 8.3 -3.3
136.0 129.7 144.5 135.4 135.3 147.7 145.6 133.9 138.0 145.7 144.7 138.4
37.4 12.3 15.0 12.3 -3.8 -6.8 -0.5 6.4 -5.5 4.4 -1.4 -11.9
118.8 102.6 112.3 114.6 110.4 111.4 112.4 115.2 117.8 122.8 121.8 120.1
7.0 3.6 5.9 4.8 7.6 8.9 4.1 9.8 -4.3 7.2 13.6 1.3
113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109 108 110 109
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P 9P 10
129.6 105.9 127.0 118.6 115.7 119.1 120.0 121.2 120.9 -
4.8 -4.0 4.4 -1.6 -1.5 -2.2 -1.6 0.6 -2.2 -
133.0 125.6 146.1 133.1 131.4 139.4 141.9 132.3 135.2 -
-2.2 -3.2 1.1 -1.7 -2.9 -5.6 -2.5 -1.2 -2.0 -
128.2 98.0 119.4 112.7 109.4 110.9 111.2 116.8 115.1 -
7.9 -4.5 6.3 -1.7 -0.9 -0.4 -1.1 1.4 -2.3 -
108 105 98 100 104 102 102 99 99 100
Source: Statistics Korea & The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
55
6. Machinery orders received, domestic machinery shipment and estimated facility investment index See graph 3-2 Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant prices) Period
2010
Estimated facility investment index (2005=100)
Domestic machinery shipment excluding ship (2005=100)
Total
Public
Private
23,360
2,330
21,030
12,279
133.2
135.0
Manufacturing
2010
I ll III IV
5,544 6,247 5,662 5,908
525 402 380 1,023
5,019 5,845 5,282 4,885
2,910 3,564 3,026 2,779
120.5 137.5 139.1 135.6
116.7 144.2 136.2 142.8
2011
I ll III
6,627 6,760 5,735
471 732 401
6,156 6,029 5,334
3,744 3,684 3,119
128.5 144.1 134.2
133.1 148.4 123.8
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,767 1,641 2,135 1,843 2,189 2,214 2,092 1,710 1,860 1,719 1,770 2,418
169 107 249 127 115 160 105 106 169 101 102 820
1,598 1,534 1,886 1,716 2,074 2,055 1,987 1,604 1,691 1,618 1,668 1,599
1,008 880 1,022 1,054 1,329 1,180 1,068 897 1,061 964 981 834
103.7 112.8 145.1 132.9 132.4 147.2 139.1 140.8 137.5 130.8 134.7 141.2
108.3 102.7 139.1 139.4 140.9 152.2 138.6 132.8 137.1 134.8 136.7 156.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
2,115 2,070 2,442 1,965 2,171 2,624 2,000 1,812 1,922
116 122 233 102 142 487 152 115 134
1,156 1,148 1,440 1,158 1,190 1,336 1,027 1,007 1,085
125.7 113.9 145.8 132.5 146.1 154.1 134.9 136.0 131.7
127.6 123.6 148.1 138.3 150.9 156.0 135.9 124.5 126.0
11.2
-37.9
32.3
25.1
22.5
2010
2,000 1,948 2,209 1,869 2,029 2,137 1,848 1,698 1,788 Y-o-Y change (%) 21.8
2010
I ll III IV
10.3 24.7 -0.2 11.3
-43.7 -42.2 -71.7 31.4
22.6 35.5 22.0 7.8
45.6 58.5 27.4 4.5
30.0 29.5 29.3 13.6
18.1 25.7 27.4 18.4
2011
I ll III
19.5 8.2 1.3
-10.3 82.0 5.6
22.7 3.1 1.0
28.7 3.4 3.1
6.6 4.8 -3.5
14.1 2.9 -5.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
11.8 -2.0 20.6 27.2 56.3 2.6 -16.5 26.6 2.3 9.9 -9.2 34.9
-27.1 -79.4 37.2 39.0 19.6 -68.6 -90.2 48.9 -15.5 20.8 -76.5 213.9
18.5 32.8 18.7 26.4 59.1 24.4 38.7 25.3 4.5 9.3 10.0 4.3
39.4 66.8 36.7 57.1 101.1 28.8 41.8 37.1 9.6 13.2 4.2 -3.7
26.3 23.7 38.3 32.5 28.4 27.7 31.5 41.2 17.1 21.6 13.1 7.4
27.6 5.2 22.1 24 32.1 21.8 28.1 36.9 18.8 25 19.5 12.4
2011
19.7 26.1 14.4 6.6 -0.8 18.5 -4.4 6.0 3.4
-31.5 14.0 -6.3 -19.6 23.4 205.2 44.9 8.0 -20.4
25.1 27.0 17.1 8.6 -2.2 4.0 -7.0 5.8 5.7
14.6 30.4 41.0 9.8 -10.5 13.2 -3.9 12.2 2.3
22.2 1.0 0.5 -0.3 10.3 4.7 -3.0 -3.4 -4.2
17.8 20.4 6.5 -0.8 7.1 2.5 -1.9 -6.3 -8.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
November 2011
7. Value of construction completion and domestic construction orders received See graphs 4-2 & 4-3 (current prices, billion won)
Period
Type of order
Private
Public
Private
35,163
52,777
88,675
29,013
54,628
Public
92,238
2010
Type of order
Domestic construction orders received (total)
Value of construction completion (total)
2010
I ll llI lV
20,329 24,082 22,005 25,823
7,467 9,129 7,784 10,784
11,977 13,931 13,160 13,708
18,110 25,295 19,095 26,175
7,955 6,890 6,814 7,355
9,087 16,737 11,406 17,399
2011
I ll llI
19,067 23,898 21,411
7,288 9,304 7,836
10,857 13,195 12,464
15,796 24,473 19,259
4,053 6,067 6,396
10,743 16,821 12,176
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,496 6,145 7,687 7,354 7,741 8,986 7,453 7,150 7,401 7,356 8,041 10,426
2,257 2,303 2,908 2,628 2,841 3,660 2,690 2,460 2,634 2,856 3,278 4,650
3,972 3,614 4,391 4,460 4,537 4,934 4,419 4,370 4,371 4,135 4,401 5,173
7,043 4,752 6,314 6,636 8,717 9,941 7,475 4,145 7,475 4,415 7,551 14,209
2,410 2,170 3,375 1,829 1,672 3,388 3,903 1,327 1,584 1,185 2,023 4,146
4,274 2,232 2,582 4,456 6,652 5,629 3,351 2,698 5,355 3,111 5,217 9,071
6,157 5,277 7,634 7,053 7,435 9,410 6,793 6,908 7,710
2,415 2,047 2,827 2,721 2,189 3,765 2,441 2,524 2,870
3,476 2,991 4,391 3,981 4,226 4,989 4,044 4,051 4,369
4,658 4,959 7,179 6,459 6,753 11,260 4,892 7,269 7,098
1,295 1,396 1,362 1,413 1,861 2,793 1,735 1,505 3,156
2,697 2,445 5,601 4,452 4,428 7,941 3,042 5,503 3,631
2.7
8.5
-18.7
-43.7
2.8
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
2010
Y-o-Y change (%) 0.5
2010
I ll llI lV
6.3 2.0 -0.4 3.3
13.8 5.5 -1.1 15.9
3.8 2.6 1.0 -4.8
-1.6 -6.7 -3.6 -40.2
-14.9 -61.9 -22.0 -52.1
8.0 105.4 13.2 34.4
2011
I ll llI
-6.2 -0.8 -2.7
-2.4 1.9 0.7
-9.4 -5.3 -5.3
-12.8 -3.3 0.9
-49.1 -11.9 -6.1
18.2 0.5 6.8
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7.2 0.8 10.5 -1.0 7.3 0.2 6.7 6.5 -11.8 0.9 -0.5 8.2
5.1 12.9 22.2 -0.1 9.6 6.7 14.0 1.4 -14.6 10.5 17.1 18.6
9.6 -3.5 5.3 1.0 7.8 -0.3 3.9 11.2 -9.8 -4.8 -9.4 -0.5
20.2 -4.6 -16.5 -14.1 17.4 -16.9 25.6 -12.5 -18.1 -58.8 -48.7 -22.5
-11.5 -22.2 -11.9 -68.7 -62.9 -56.0 23.5 -26.2 -58.0 -75.0 -61.4 -22.8
49.2 8.0 -25.8 178.8 138.3 49.8 38.3 -5.0 11.4 -45.7 -41.2 -23.9
-5.2 -14.1 -0.7 -4.1 -4.0 4.7 -8.8 -3.4 4.2
7.0 -11.1 -2.8 3.5 -0.8 2.9 -9.3 2.6 9.0
-12.5 -17.3 0.0 -10.7 -6.9 1.1 -8.5 -7.3 0.0
-33.9 -16.7 13.7 -2.7 -22.5 13.3 -34.6 75.4 -5.0
-46.3 -35.7 -59.6 -22.7 11.3 -17.6 -55.5 13.4 99.3
-36.9 9.5 117.0 -0.1 -33.4 41.1 -9.3 103.9 -32.2
2011
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8P 9P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Economic Bulletin
57
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI See graphs 13-1, 13-2 & 13-3
Y-o-Y change (%)
Coincident index (2005=100)
Cycle of coincident index (2005=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
109.1 110.0 110.4 111.0 111.2 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.2 115.2 116.1 116.7
5.4 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.5 7.4
110.9 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.3
101.4 101.4 101.4 101.5 101.6 101.9 102.2 102.4 102.2 102.5 102.7 103.2
85.6 87.5 109.4 105.8 104.1 100.2 95.8 94.4 101.5 108.3 106.0 98.9
96.5 93.4 112.3 107.7 110.9 105.6 99.3 102.5 111.8 116.3 112.4 103.4
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
116.3 115.6 115.1 114.9 114.8 114.2 113.5 113.3 113.1 112.5 111.3 110.5
6.5 5.1 4.0 3.2 2.5 1.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.7 -3.1 -3.9
119.3 119.6 119.9 119.9 120.0 119.8 119.8 120.0 120.3 120.3 118.8 116.1
103.7 103.5 103.4 102.9 102.6 102.0 101.5 101.3 101.1 100.6 99.0 96.4
95.2 95.6 101.1 101.7 98.1 79.1 80.8 83.1 76.8 64.6 53.7 52.4
103.0 94.8 102.1 98.1 104.7 95.3 83.2 80.8 98.3 84.9 63.7 55.0
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.8 112.2 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.9 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.6 126.4 127.2
-3.6 -2.4 -1.3 0.5 2.6 5.4 7.2 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.7 12.0
114.1 114.1 115.3 117.1 118.1 120.4 121.7 122.7 123.5 124.4 125.2 125.8
94.3 93.9 94.5 95.5 96.0 97.4 98.0 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.2 99.2
58.1 62.4 89.0 93.7 100.9 96.6 98.5 96.0 110.5 107.5 103.8 104.8
52.0 66.0 76.1 86.7 103.8 100.2 98.7 99.8 117.0 116.5 109.0 105.9
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.5 127.0 127.1 126.9 127.3 127.7 128.4 128.8 128.8 128.4 128.7 129.3
11.6 10.4 9.6 8.6 7.7 6.8 6.2 5.4 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.9
126.6 127.8 128.8 129.6 130.5 131.4 132.4 132.6 132.2 131.8 132.1 133.1
99.5 100.0 100.3 100.5 100.8 101.0 101.4 101.1 100.4 99.6 99.5 99.8
99.2 98.7 113.1 108.9 111.9 109.4 105.0 98.6 104.1 104.3 103.5 102.1
103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1 113.1 107.1 104.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
130.1 129.8 129.4 129.0 129.5 130.2 130.8 130.9 130.6 -
3.0 2.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.5 -
135.1 135.3 135.8 135.5 136.6 137.7 138.6 139.2 138.7 -
100.8 100.6 100.5 99.9 100.3 100.6 100.9 100.9 100.1 -
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 -
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4
Period
Leading index (2005=100)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source: Statistics Korea & The Federation of Korean Industries
58
November 2011
9. Balance of payments (I) See graphs 5-1, 5-2, 5-3, 10-1 & 10-2 (million US$)
Period
2009 2010P
Current balance
Goods trade balance
Exports
32,790.5 28,213.6
37,866.0 41,904.0
Imports
Services trade balance
Income trade balance
Current transfers
358,189.7 464,286.9
320,323.7 422,383.1
-6,640.5 -11,229.4
2,276.7 768.4
-711.7 -3.229.4
2009
I II III IV
4,543.3 11,557.4 8,613.2 8,076.6
2,819.2 13,553.3 10,914.6 10,578.9
73,334.9 87,038.0 95,485.2 102,331.6
70,515.7 73,484.7 84,570.6 91,752.7
-26.0 -1,291.4 -2,663.3 -2,659.8
393.9 -151.1 948.6 1,085.3
1,356.2 -553.4 -586.7 -927.8
2010P
I II III IV
263.3 8,857.9 9,931.1 9,161.3
4,785.4 12,240.4 12,542.3 12,335.9
101,354.5 117,585.0 118,257.3 127,090.1
96,569.1 105,344.7 105,715.1 114,754.2
-4,201.1 -1,873.1 -2,954.6 -2,200.6
546.5 -1,006.5 1,296.1 -67.6
-867.4 -502.9 -952.7 -906.4
2011P
I II III
2,610.3 5,492.2 7,169.5
5,842.7 7,661.0 7,471.3
127,691.2 142,722.8 141,672.5
121,848.5 135,061.8 134,201.2
-2,538.0 -796.0 -1,198.2
387.9 -824.8 1,314.9
-1,082.3 -548.0 -418.5
2009
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,800.2 2,579.8 3,763.7 3,511.2 3,153.8 4,892.4 4,054.8 1,300.2 3,258.2 3,202.9 4,165.0 708.7
-2,441.3 1,766.2 3,494.3 4,255.5 3,822.6 5,475.2 5,021.2 1,920.5 3,972.9 3,546.1 4,851.1 2,181.7
21,910.3 24,179.6 27,245.0 28,832.5 27,228.8 30,976.7 32,688.5 29,001.4 33,795.3 33,474.6 34,055.5 34,801.5
24,351.6 22,413.4 23,750.7 24,577.0 23,406.2 25,501.5 27,667.3 27,080.9 29,822.4 29,928.5 29,204.4 32,619.8
-98.9 -64.1 137.0 -15.8 -555.6 -720.0 -1,241.2 -761.3 -660.8 -505.9 -643.6 -1,510.3
502.7 366.2 -475.0 -835.1 205.0 479.0 366.3 367.9 214.4 336.2 272.5 476.6
237.3 511.5 607.4 106.6 -318.2 -341.8 -91.5 -226.9 -268.3 -173.5 -315.0 -439.3
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-571.8 -363.1 1,198.2 529.0 3,998.9 4,330.0 4,457.9 1,975.7 3,497.5 5,112.5 1,934.4 2,114.4
996.7 586.3 3,202.4 3,740.1 3,658.4 4,841.9 5,268.9 2,826.0 4,447.4 5,484.9 3,170.8 3,680.2
31,806.6 31,119.7 38,428.2 39,186.7 38,250.1 40,148.2 41,130.1 37,903.4 39,223.8 42,012.2 41,939.6 43,138.3
30,809.9 30,533.4 35,225.8 35,446.7 34,591.7 35,306.3 35,861.3 35,077.4 34,776.4 36,527.3 38,768.8 39,458.1
-1,651.8 -1,270.7 -1,278.6 -1,268.9 147.4 -751.6 -859.3 -902.5 -1,192.8 -749.9 -304.5 -1,146.2
414.6 497.4 -365.6 -1,452.5 219.8 226.2 352.3 518.7 425.1 657.1 -690.2 -34.5
-331.3 -176.1 -360.0 -489.7 -26.7 13.5 -304.0 -466.5 -182.2 -279.6 -241.7 -385.1
2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
154.7 1,126.1 1,329.5 1,277.6 2,183.9 2,030.7 3,773.6 292.6 3,103.3
1,557.9 1,530.8 2,754.0 3,327.6 1,633.8 2,699.6 4,728.0 371.5 2,371.8
42,662.8 37,228.3 47,800.4 47,879.4 47,149.8 47,693.6 48,555.9 45,634.9 47,481.7
41,104.9 35,697.2 45,046.4 44,551.8 45,516.0 44,994.0 43,827.9 45,263.4 45,109.9
-1,640.9 -569.1 -328.0 -178.8 15.5 -632.7 -690.9 -577.9 70.6
703.7 542.6 -858.4 -1,581.9 517.3 239.8 72.3 699.6 543.0
-466.0 -378.2 -238.1 -289.3 17.3 -276.0 -335.8 -200.6 117.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea & Korea Customs Service
Economic Bulletin
59
10. Balance of payments (II) See graph 10-3 (million US$) Changes in reserve assets
Errors and omissions
289.6 -174.2
-68,666.4 -27,094.5
1,860.7 -2,882.1
6,917.1 -7,914.9 -251.1 3,287.8
382.3 25.8 -103.9 -14.6
-9,017.4 -19,541.8 -23,492.6 -16,614.6
-175.0 1,379.4 -1,636.0 2,292.3
746.6 -983.9 -388.6 618.5
16.7 -7,076.3 -4,725.3 -5,443.2
-175.6 27.1 31.1 -56.8
-8,595.1 -5,600.2 -10,411.5 -2,487.7
-108.0 241.1 -2,251.5 -763.7
-1,379.1 2,035.4 8,108.4
730.3 -542.9 -1,490.7
6,251.6 -1,432.5 -19,031.3
-181.4 -111.9 235.5
-3,479.2 -2,618.0 6,326.1
143.8 1,315.8 1,490.1
-643.0 -1,095.1 -1,039.8 -695.3 -855.9 -480.8 -1,644.2 -865.9 -795.6 -749.1 -2,855.1 -3,228.2
4,715.2 122.8 -2,053.4 6,879.7 4,157.3 4,890.2 8,470.1 4,004.4 8,752.4 5,829.4 2,992.6 967.0
473.2 -771.2 -2,358.9 274.1 1,279.7 -954.8 -155.1 -870.3 -25.5 -509.1 614.2 -89.3
2,644.7 -1,255.7 5,528.1 -4,669.7 1,818.3 -5,063.5 -3,538.9 2,696.1 591.7 -1,429.4 712.9 4,004.3
61.9 195.6 124.8 60.3 -16.5 -18.0 3.4 -29.4 -77.9 6.9 -56.4 34.9
-4,488.6 -1,260.0 -3,268.8 -5,444.1 -10,248.6 -3,849.1 -5,573.6 -7,095.2 -10,823.8 -7,965.8 -5,637.4 -3,011.4
-963.2 1,483.8 -695.6 83.9 711.9 583.6 -1,616.6 860.1 -879.5 1,614.1 64.2 614.0
-686.4 1,398.3 -867.2 641.8 -5,611.5 -4,129.3 -3,528.4 -1,421.7 -2,729.5 -5,869.7 -2,191.7 -336.2
-1,070.2 -613.7 -623.6 -1,163.6 -571.7 -828.8 -1,773.0 -1,184.2 -3,260.2 -5,393.9 -1,286.8 -1,610.0
118.0 2,484.0 7,557.6 5,792.1 747.2 559.1 8,592.4 1,061.0 4,378.7 7,447.3 2,227.2 -2,412.2
241.8 549.3 -44.5 80.6 -854.8 -209.7 -297.3 61.3 -152.6 0.4 106.9 511.2
7,076.7 -1,692.8 -5,367.2 5,343.4 -12,116.8 -302.9 -4,029.4 93.3 -789.2 -5,216.8 -1,494.4 1,268.0
-70.0 -43.2 -62.4 -120.5 101.3 46.3 -0.2 57.9 -26.6 -48.1 -25.3 16.6
-6,982.7 714.7 -2,327.1 -9,290.2 7083.3 -3393.3 -6020.9 -1,511.0 -2,879.6 -2,658.6 -1,719.3 1,890.2
1,258.2 -1,035.2 -331.0 -1,170.8 1,612.6 -200.7 -929.5 -554.0 -768.2 757.2 257.3 -1,778.2
-1,282.0 -1,996.2 524.1 394.7 -3,956.7 -3,246.0 -2,469.2 -1,690.6 -4,499.8
-1,725.4 -1,635.1 -1,335.8 -7.38.8 -1,254.7 -2,144.6 327.1 -1,036.4 -2,098.3
904.6 -3,004.0 720.3 4,575.0 -1,140.1 -1,399.5 9,258.3 -2,923.0 1,773.1
569.3 -363.3 524.3 -206.2 165.1 -501.8 526.6 -1,868.6 -148.7
1,773.3 5,126.9 -648.6 -145.9 -821.7 -464.9 -6,581.0 4,638.4 -17,088.7
-120.7 -32.7 -28.0 -33.6 -49.9 -28.4 13.8 41.5 180.2
-2,683.1 -2,088.0 1,291.9 -3,055.8 -855.4 1,293.2 -6,014.0 -542.5 12,882.6
1,127.3 870.1 -1,853.6 -1,672.3 1,772.8 1,215.3 -1,304.4 1,398.0 1,396.5
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivative
2009 2010P
-34,651.2 -25,331.5
-14,948.0 -19,379.7
49,727.7 38,552.4
-3,093.0 -7.4
2,038.9 -17,228.1
I II III IV
-4,368.3 -12,936.8 -6,977.2 -10,368.9
-2,777.9 -2,032.0 -3,305.7 -6,832.4
2,784.6 15,927.2 21,226.9 9,789.0
-2,656.9 599.0 -1,050.9 15.8
2010P I II III IV
-155.3 -9,099.0 -7,679.6 -8,397.6
-2,307.5 -2,564.1 -6,217.4 -8,290.7
10,159.6 7,098.4 14,032.1 7,262.3
2011P I II III
-2,754.1 -6,808.0 -8,659.6
-4,696.3 -4,138.1 -2,807.6
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,763.4 -4,063.6 -3,068.1 -3,595.1 -3,865.7 -5,476.0 -2,438.2 -2,160.3 -2,378.7 -4,817.0 -4,229.2 -1,322.7
2010 P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2011P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2009
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
60
November 2011
Capital transfers Other & acquisition of investment non-financial assets
11. Prices See graphs 11-1, 11-2 & 11-3 (2005 = 100) Producer prices (2005=100)
Consumer prices
Export & import prices
Period All Items
Commodity
Service
Core
All items
Commodity
Export
Import
2009 2010
112.8 116.1
113.6 118.8
112.2 114.3
112.5 114.5
110.9 115.1
111.9 117.0
109.2 106.4
137.7 145.0
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
113.0 113.4 113.5 113.2 113.4 113.8
113.9 114.5 114.6 113.9 114.2 115.0
112.5 112.7 112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0
112.7 112.8 112.9 113.0 113.2 113.3
111.1 111.7 111.8 110.9 111.3 111.9
112.1 112.9 113.0 111.8 112.5 113.1
109.0 109.3 107.3 104.0 104.3 105.1
136.6 139.5 136.8 135.3 137.9 138.6
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
114.2 114.6 115.0 115.6 115.7 115.5 115.9 116.3 117.6 117.8 117.1 117.8
115.6 116.1 116.9 118.1 118.1 117.6 118.3 119.0 121.8 122.1 120.4 121.9
113.3 113.6 113.8 114.0 114.1 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.9 115.0 114.9 115.0
113.4 113.6 113.7 113.9 114.2 114.4 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.1 115.2 115.6
112.7 113.0 113.7 114.6 115.2 114.8 114.9 115.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 117.8
113.9 114.5 115.3 116.4 117.1 116.6 116.7 117.1 118.6 118.6 118.9 120.5
103.5 104.7 104.0 103.8 106.7 109.9 109.4 107.4 106.9 105.0 106.3 109.6
136.9 137.6 139.2 140.9 144.7 147.6 147.0 147.4 147.4 146.1 149.2 156.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
118.9 119.8 120.4 120.4 120.4 120.6 121.4 122.5 122.6 122.4
123.8 125.1 123.1 125.7 125.1 125.3 127.0 129.1 129.6 128.6
115.8 116.4 116.6 116.9 117.3 117.5 117.8 118.1 118.1 118.4
119.7 120.5 122.0 122.4 122.3 121.9 122.4 122.8 122.9 122.9
122.7 123.9 125.8 126.2 126.0 125.5 126.0 126.7 126.9 126.9
108.6 110.6 113.5 111.8 110.2 109.4 108.0 109.4 113.1 114.7
156.1 160.9 166.5 167.6 163.9 163.2 161.4 162.1 168.1 169.5
2009 2010
2.8 2.9
3.4 4.6
2.4 4.2
116.3 117.1 117.4 117.6 118.2 118.6 119.0 119.4 119.6 119.4 Y-o-Y change (%) 3.6 1.8
-0.2 3.8
-0.5 4.6
-0.2 -2.6
-4.1 5.3
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.8
0.9 2.0 2.2 2.0 3.5 4.4
2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8
3.2 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
3.8 -3.0 -2.6 -3.1 -0.4 1.8
-5.1 -4.0 -3.4 -4.2 -0.7 2.0
-2.7 -1.1 -7.2 -16.5 -13.4 -8.6
-12.9 -7.0 -10.8 -15.3 -7.5 -1.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3 3.5
4.7 3.6 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 6.3 7.2 5.4 6.0
2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.0
2.8 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.6 4.6 3.4 3.1 4.0 5.0 4.9 5.3
3.2 2.7 2.9 3.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 5.7 6.5
-6.9 -10.2 -12.2 -6.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 -1.7 -0.4 1.0 1.9 4.3
-0.9 -4.1 -4.3 5.1 11.3 8.0 7.5 5.7 7.8 8.1 8.2 12.7
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
4.1 4.5 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.7 5.3 4.3 3.9
7.1 7.8 7.9 6.4 5.9 6.5 7.4 8.5 6.4 5.3
2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.0
2.6 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.7
6.2 6.6 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.6 5.7 5.6
7.7 8.2 9.1 8.4 7.6 7.6 8.0 8.2 7.0 7.0
4.9 5.6 9.1 7.7 3.3 -0.4 -1.3 1.8 5.8 9.2
14.1 16.9 19.6 19.0 13.2 10.5 9.8 10.0 14.0 16.0
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
61
12. Employment See graphs 8-1, 8-2 & 8-3 Wage workers (thous.)
Economically active persons (thous.) Period
Employed persons (thous.)
Unemployment (%) Regular
Temporary
Daily
All industry Manufacturing S.O.C&service 2009 2010
24,394 24,748
23,506 23,829
3,836 4,028
17,998 18,214
3.6 3.7
16,454 16,971
9,390 10,086
5,101 5,068
1,963 1,817
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,756 24,525 24,630 24,655 24,625 24,063
23,828 23,620 23,805 23,856 23,806 23,229
3,802 3,761 3,810 3,858 3,855 3,872
18,210 18,048 18,155 18,130 18,267 18,104
3.7 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.5
16,589 16,479 16,687 16,690 16,790 16,555
9,383 9,472 9,606 9,628 9,603 9,632
5,255 5,117 5,151 5,170 5,256 5,074
1,952 1,890 1,931 1,892 1,931 4,860
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,082 24,035 24,382 24,858 25,099 25,158 25,232 24,863 24,911 25,004 24,847 24,538
22,865 22,867 23,377 23,924 24,306 24,280 24,301 24,005 24,054 24,172 24,109 23,684
3,924 3,886 3,924 3,991 4,036 4,017 4,040 4,058 4,062 4,098 4,139 4,156
17,796 17,762 18,047 18,285 18,499 18,422 18,489 18,175 18,216 18,264 18,340 18,272
5.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 3.5
16,297 16,282 16,617 16,994 17,255 17,193 17,228 17,048 17,103 17,178 17,300 17,154
9,712 9,786 9,926 10,011 10,078 10,089 10,107 10,151 10,217 10,280 10,334 10,347
4,860 4,838 4,976 5,147 5,223 5,165 5,215 5,122 5,106 5,089 5,069 4,999
1,725 1,657 1,714 1,836 1,953 1,938 1,905 1,775 1,780 1,809 1,898 1,808
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
24,114 24,431 24,918 25,240 25,480 25,592 25,473 25,257 25,076
23,196 23,336 23,846 24,303 24,661 24,752 24,636 24,495 24,318
4,148 4,149 4,122 4,108 4,137 4,135 4,079 4,031 4,014
18,007 3.8 18,019 4.5 18,244 4.3 18,536 3.7 18,731 3.2 18,812 3.3 18,844 3.3 18,739 3.0 18,595 3.0 Y-o-Y change (%)
16,832 16,856 17,065 17,357 17,626 17,720 17,667 17,510 17,378
10,305 10,390 10,543 10,618 10,708 10,716 10,718 10,710 10,764
4,848 4,781 4,782 4,928 5,064 5,132 5,137 5,031 5,047
1,680 1,684 1,740 1,812 1,854 1,872 1,811 1,769 1,567
2009 2010
0.2 1.5
-0.3 1.4
-3.2 5.0
0.5 1.2
-
1.5 3.1
4.3 7.4
0.4 -0.7
-7.4 -7.4
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1
-4.3 -3.5 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 -0.4
0.7 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9
-
1.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3
3.6 4.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 6.2
1.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.7 -0.2
-9.1 -6.7 -6.5 -11.7 -12.0 -9.3
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.9 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 2.0
0.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.5 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.3 2.0
0.8 1.2 2.9 3.8 4.9 4.7 6.2 7.9 6.6 6.2 7.4 7.3
0.8 1.3 2.0 2.2 2.7 0.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
-
1.5 2.1 3.4 3.9 4.7 2.7 3.9 3.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6
6.7 6.4 8.2 8.5 8.2 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 6.8 7.6 7.4
-2.4 -0.5 0.7 1.9 2.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.9 -1.6 -3.6 -1.5
-12.4 -12.6 -12.6 -11.5 -6.6 -8.4 -2.4 -6.1 -7.8 -4.4 -1.7 -2.2
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0.1 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.7 0.7
1.4 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.1
5.7 6.7 5.1 2.9 2.5 2.9 1.0 -0.7 -1.2
1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 3.1 2.1
-
3.3 3.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.7 1.6
6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.4
-0.3 -1.2 -3.9 -4.3 -3.0 -0.6 -1.5 -1.8 -1.2
-2.6 1.6 1.5 -1.3 -5.1 -3.4 -4.9 -0.3 -11.9
Source: Statistics Korea
62
November 2011
13. Financial indicators See graphs 9-1 & 9-4 (period average) Yields (%)
Stock
Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI (end-period)
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.7
5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.7
5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.9
5.0 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9
1,360.20 1,417.30 1,452.60 1,542.24 1,700.91 1,743.60 1,933.27 1,873.24 1,946.48 2,064.95 1,906.00 1,897.10
2008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.0 3.3
5.8 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.6 4.7
6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.6 8.4
5.4 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.1 5.0 4.0
5.5 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.3
1,624.68 1,711.62 1,703.99 1,825.47 1,852.02 1,674.92 1,594.67 1,474.24 1,448.06 1,113.06 1,076.07 1,124.47
2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
3.2 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8
7.3 7.1 6.1 5.7 5.2 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4
3.4 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2
4.0 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
1,162.11 1,063.03 1,206.26 1,369.40 1,395.89 1,390.07 1,577.29 1,591.85 1,673.14 1,580.69 1,555.60 1,682.77
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
5.4 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.8 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,602.43 1,594.58 1,692.85 1,741.56 1,641.25 1,698.29 1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
63
14. Monetary indicators See graph 9-5 (period average)
Period
(billion won)
Reserve money
M1
M2
Lf
2009 2010
61,739.6 67,585.1
357,344.1 399,412.3
1,508,550.4 1,639,675.1
1,937,336.0 2,096,534.8
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
59,420.2 60,570.3 59,650.3 63,681.7 61,154.5 62,633.2
363,421.4 361,012.4 367,070.3 371,531.7 370,979.7 376,977.3
1,512,822.5 1,524,879.7 1,535,279.8 1,551,319.5 1,564,175.8 1,570,027.1
1,940,223.0 1,956,130.6 1,972,408.5 1,990,372.5 2,000,503.6 2,014,950.4
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
65,054.7 66,563.8 65,643.6 64,274.7 67,835.1 66,250.8 66,958.2 67,318.7 70,266.5 69,905.0 69,476.8 71,472.9
381,218.2 387,858.6 386,015.4 388,174.7 394,880.2 400,132.8 403,785.1 400,882.5 403,413.5 405,000.1 414,912.8 425,673.9
1,574,215.8 1,595,403.8 1,607,896.1 1,621,176.9 1,630,904.7 1,647,981.2 1,653,057.5 1,653,907.2 1,659,400.1 1,669,376.6 1,679,909.9 1,682,871.9
2,019,563.5 2,041,164.1 2,056,233.7 2,069,616.1 2,084,007.4 2,104,724.0 2,111,672.2 2,113.052.7 2,123.558.2 2,134,385.4 2,145,901.5 2,154,538.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
73,540.8 75,432.1 73,012.7 73,206.1 73,828.5 74,705.5 74,069.7 75,642.3 77,942.2
429,368.1 432,482.8 430,936.6 425,420.5 423,994.7 421,885.3 418,973.1 422,649.3 425,196.4 Y-o-Y change (%)
1,676,448.8 1,674,390.5 1,677,475.9 1,684,792.3 1,690,543.0 1,697,204.2 1,705,451.5 1,719,437.8 1,729,531.1
2,152,814.0 2,148,254.1 2,152,736.5 2,163,485.7 2,175,557.3 2,189,729.2 2,208,624.3 2,230,191.9 2,243,675.6
2009 2010
18.1 9.5
16.3 11.8
10.3 8.7
7.9 8.2
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
17.4 16.5 11.9 20.2 12.7 5.6
18.5 18.5 19.5 19.6 17.3 16.4
9.7 10.0 10.0 10.5 9.7 9.3
7.7 8.0 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.1
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1.6 5.6 0.0 4.7 12.9 11.3 12.7 11.1 17.8 9.8 13.6 14.1
15.0 15.9 12.6 10.8 10.9 10.5 11.1 11.0 10.2 9.0 11.8 12.9
9.3 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.4 7.2
8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.0 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
13.0 13.3 11.2 13.9 8.8 12.8 10.6 12.4 10.9
12.6 11.5 11.6 9.6 7.4 5.4 3.8 5.4 5.1
6.5 5.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.2 4.0 4.2
6.6 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.5 5.7
Source: The Bank of Korea
64
November 2011
15. Exchange rates See graphs 9-2 & 9-3
/US$
/100
/Euro
Period End-period
Average
End-period
Average
End-period
Average
2009 2010
1,167.6 1,138.9
1,276.4 1,156.3
1,262.8 1,397.1
1,363.1 1,320.6
1,674.3 1,513.6
1,774.4 1,532.9
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,240.5 1,244.9 1,188.7 1,200.6 1,167.4 1,167.6
1,264.0 1,238.4 1,219.2 1,175.3 1,164.2 1,166.5
1,299.2 1,332.8 1,318.8 1,312.6 1,348.3 1,262.8
1,338.1 1,304.3 1,332.4 1,300.8 1,304.4 1,300.8
1,745.9 1,779.1 1,734.3 1,781.3 1,751.7 1,674.3
1,778.8 1,776.3 1,774.2 1,742.9 1,736.6 1,703.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,156.5 1,158.4 1,130.8 1,115.5 1,200.2 1,210.3 1,187.2 1,189.1 1,142.0 1,126.6 1,157.3 1,138.9
1,138.8 1,157.1 1,137.6 1,117.1 1,163.1 1,212.3 1,207.3 1,179.9 1,167.0 1,123.4 1,126.2 1,147.6
1,287.0 1,299.3 1,217.7 1,186.8 1,318.5 1,364.6 1,370.0 1,406.0 1,363.3 1,390.7 1,373.4 1,397.1
1,248.3 1,281.7 1,255.8 1,195.3 1,265.2 1,333.6 1,377.7 1,380.2 1,384.2 1,371.1 1,366.6 1,376.7
1,614.6 1,569.2 1,518.2 1,479.3 1,474.2 1,475.4 1,552.4 1,505.9 1,556.0 1,569.3 1,518.3 1,513.6
1,627.5 1,584.5 1,544.9 1,501.7 1,460.7 1,480.9 1,540.3 1,523.3 1,518.7 1,559.6 1,541.3 1,515.4
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1,114.3 1,127.9 1,107.2 1,072.3 1,080.6 1,078.1 1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5 1,104.5
1,120.1 1,118.1 1,122.5 1,086.8 1,083.5 1,081.3 1,059.5 1,073.2 1,118.6 1,155.5
1,356.6 1,380.7 1,331.9 1,313.8 1,335.6 1,335.7 1,353.2 1,396.8 1,536.6 1,458.0
1,356.3 1,351.0 1,376.2 1,304.8 1,333.6 1,342.8 1,333.4 1,391.4 1,456.5 1,508.2
1,514.0 1,549.5 1,563.5 1,591.2 1,549.7 1,560.5 1,507.9 1,547.3 1,601.4 1,562.7
1,495.4 1,524.6 1,572.6 1,569.4 1,551.3 1,555.4 1,515.4 1,538.7 1,542.4 1,584.0
-7.1 -2.5
15.8 -9.4
26.6 -3.1
-5.7 -9.6
10.4 -13.6
2009 7 8 9 10 11 12
23.0 15.1 0.1 -7.0 -21.3 -7.1
24.0 18.9 7.9 -11.4 -16.2 -15.1
39.3 34.9 15.3 0.5 -13.2 -9.4
40.2 36.9 25.6 -2.0 -9.1 -13.5
11.1 11.9 1.6 7.0 -8.4 -5.7
10.7 13.1 9.0 -1.3 -1.8 -7.7
2010 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-15.5 -23.6 -17.9 -17.2 -5.7 -5.8 -4.3 -4.5 -3.9 -6.2 -0.9 -2.5
-15.4 -19.1 -22.2 -16.8 -7.6 -3.9 -4.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.4 -3.3 -1.6
-15.4 -15.7 -13.9 -14.2 0.3 2.1 5.4 5.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 10.6
-16.1 -17.1 -16.0 -11.9 -3.0 2.2 3.0 5.8 3.9 5.4 4.8 5.8
-8.7 -18.7 -16.4 -17.2 -16.8 -18.5 -11.1 -15.4 -10.3 -11.9 -13.3 -9.6
-9.3 -13.4 -18.9 -15.2 -15.0 -16.2 -13.4 -13.8 -14.4 -10.5 -11.2 -11.1
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-3.6 -2.6 -2.1 -3.9 -10.0 -10.9 -11.3 -9.9 3.3 -2.0
-1.6 -3.4 -1.3 -2.7 -6.8 -10.8 -12.2 -9.0 -4.1 2.8
5.4 6.3 9.4 10.7 1.3 -2.1 -1.2 -0.7 12.7 4.8
8.7 5.4 9.6 9.2 5.4 0.7 -3.2 0.8 5.2 10.0
-6.2 -1.3 3.0 7.6 5.1 5.8 -2.9 2.7 2.9 -0.4
-8.1 -3.8 1.8 4.5 6.2 5.0 -1.6 1.0 1.6 1.6
2009 2010
Y-o-Y change (%) -9.4 10.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
Economic Bulletin
65
Editor-in-Chief Hong Nam-Ki (MOSF) Editorial Board Kim Young-Min (MOSF) Shim Jae-Hak (KDI) Lee Sung-Shin (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Cho Hyun-Joo (KDI) Editors Cho Eun-Hyung (MOSF) Eli Horn (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI)
Useful Internet Websites Economy-related Websites Recommended
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Knowledge Economy http://www.mke.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Labor http://english.molab.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr