ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.37 No.8 august 2015 eb.kdi.re.kr
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.37 No.8 august 2015
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues 2015 Tax Revision Bill Comprehensive Measures for Youth Employment
Economic News Briefing Government Works on Follow-ups to President’s Address to the Nation SMEs to Receive Support for Reducing Emissions Korea Grand Sale Starts Early to Boost Tourism Korea Grows 0.3% in Q2
Statistical Appendices
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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august 2015
Sejong, 30109 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 263 Namsejong-ro Sejong, 30149 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eb.kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
01. External economic situation
04
02. Private consumption
08
03. Facility investment
11
04. Construction investment
13
05. Exports and imports
15
06. Mining and manufacturing production
17
07. Service sector activity
19
08. Employment
21
09. Financial markets
25
9.1 Stock market
25
9.2 Exchange rate
26
9.3 Bond market
26
9.4 Money supply & money market
27
10. Balance of payments
29
11. Prices
31
11.1 Consumer prices
31
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
35
12.2 Land market
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
contents Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) An Il-Whan (MOSF) Editorial Board Park Joon-Kyu (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF)
35
39
Vol.37 No.8 / August 2015
41 Policy Issues 2015 Tax Revision Bill Comprehensive Measures for Youth Employment
49 Economic News Briefing Government Works on Follow-ups to President’s Address to the Nation SMEs to Receive Support for Reducing Emissions Government to Invest in Biomedical Products and Medical Equipment Korean FDI Up 12.1% in First Half of 2015 Korea Grand Sale Starts Early to Boost Tourism Industrial Complex Regulations to be Eased Korea Grows 0.3% in Q2
53 Statistical Appendices
02
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Overview
01. External economic situation
02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
03
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
OVERVIEW The Korea economy has seen production and investment improve, but consumption, services and employment have been faltering in the aftermath of the MERS outbreak while inflation remains low. Job growth slowed down year-on-year in June from 379,000 in the previous month to 329,000 due to the weak wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants in the aftermath of the MERS outbreak as well as decreasing daily workers. Consumer price inflation in July remained in the less than 1 percent range year-on-year at 0.7 percent due to public utilities rate cuts and low petroleum product prices, while core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products and is more related to demand, was recorded at 2.0 percent, staying in the 2 percent range. Mining and manufacturing production improved in June compared with the previous month from a 1.6 percent fall to a 2.3 percent rise, led by oil refining and car manufacturing, as regular maintenance at oil refineries was completed and auto makers released new models. Service output continued to decline month-on-month in June from 0.4 percent to 1.7 percent with retail sales plummeting from a 0.1 percent fall to a 3.7 percent drop in the aftermath of the MERS outbreak, which negatively affected department store and large discount store sales as well as tourism and leisure activities. Facility investment rose in June from a 1.3 percent fall to a 3.8 percent increase compared with the previous month backed by strong machinery investment, despite weak transportation equipment, while construction completed improved for the second month in a row, up from 2.2 percent to 3.9 percent, as both building construction and civil engineering works increased. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.3 points in June from the previous month, while the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index dropped 0.5 points. Exports continued to decline in July from 2.4 percent in the previous month to 3.3 percent, despite increases in vessels, steel and semiconductors, as petroleum products, automobiles and mobile phones decreased. The trade balance posted a surplus of US $7.76 billion. In July, the KOSPI fell amid uncertainty about the Chinese stock markets, while bond yields fell. The Korean won depreciated against both the US dollar and Japanese yen. Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase month-on-month in July, each rising 0.3 percent. Consumption has been recovering since July with MERS subsiding, but the service sector has not yet fully recovered, and external uncertainties related to the Fed’s rate hike and China’s stock market volatility are posing risks.
04
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
The government will implement fiscal stimulus, in particular the supplementary budget, as early as possible, while continuing to work on promoting tourism, improving consumer confidence and reforming the four areas of the public, education, labor and financial sectors. The government will continue to monitor internal and external economic developments, while reviewing contingency plans to be fully prepared for potential risks.
1. External economic situation Advanced economies are recovering with major countries implementing accommodative monetary policies, while concerns continue about financial market instability in emerging economies, which may follow the Fed’s rate hike expected this year. Risk factors to the global economy include instability in commodity exporters due to persisting low oil prices, as well as instability in Chinese stock markets.
US The US economy grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter (annualized q-o-q, advanced estimates), rebounding from 0.6 percent growth in the previous quarter, as the labor market improved and exports, which had declined due to temporary factors, such as port labor disputes, increased. Export growth rate (annualized q-o-q, %) -6.7 (Q1 2014) → 9.8 (Q2) → 1.8 (Q3) → 5.4 (Q4) → -6.0 (Q1 2015) → 5.3 (Q2) (Percentage change from previous period)
2012
2013
2014
Annual Annual Annual 1
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Real GDP
2.2
1.5
2.4
-0.9
4.6
4.3
2.1
0.6
2.3
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
1.5
1.7
2.7
1.3
3.8
3.5
4.3
1.8
2.9
-
-
-
- Nonresidential fixed investment
9.0
3.0
6.2
8.3
4.4
9.0
0.7
1.6
-0.6
-
-
-
13.5
9.5
1.8
-2.8
10.4
3.4
10.0
10.1
6.6
-
-
-
Industrial production
3.0
1.9
3.7
0.9
1.4
1.0
1.2
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
0.2
Retail sales
4.9
3.9
3.8
0.6
2.4
0.8
0.5
-1.0
1.5
0.0
1.0
-0.3
Existing home sales
8.9
9.0
-3.0
-5.1
4.5
3.5
0.1
-1.7
6.6
-2.3
4.5
3.2
Unemployment rate²
8.1
7.4
6.2
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.3
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.4
2.1
1.8
1.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
- Residential fixed investment
1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
05
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Industrial production grew 0.2 percent month-on-month in June, rebounding after falling for three months, as production in the mining and manufacturing sectors recovered, and the ISM Manufacturing Index stayed above 50 for the 31st consecutive month in July at 52.7. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 57.6 (Nov 2014) → 55.1 (Dec) → 53.5 (Jan 2015) → 52.9 (Feb) → 51.5 (Mar) → 51.5 (Apr) → 52.8 (May) → 53.5 (Jun) →52.7 (Jul)
US GDP growth and industrial production 10 8
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
(%)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
Retail sales fell 0.3 percent month-on-month in June due to a high base effect from the previous month when Memorial Day was celebrated, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index both fell as consumer sentiment worsened due to the Greek debt crisis and sharp declines in the Chinese stock markets. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 88.8 (Nov 2014) → 93.6 (Dec) → 98.1 (Jan 2015) → 95.4 (Feb) → 93.0 (Mar) → 95.9 (Apr) → 90.7 (May) → 96.1 (Jun) → 93.1 (Jul) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 91.0 (Nov 2014) → 93.1 (Dec) → 103.8 (Jan 2015) → 98.8 (Feb) → 101.4 (Mar) → 94.3 (Apr) → 94.6 (May) → 99.8 (Jun) → 90.9 (Jul)
The housing market continued to recover as home prices continued to rise and existing home sales in June reached 5,490,000, the highest for the past eight years and five months. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 4.4 (Oct 2014) → 4.3 (Nov) → 4.4 (Dec) → 4.4 (Jan 2015) → 5.0 (Feb) → 5.0 (Mar) → 5.0 (Apr) → 4.9 (May) Existing home sales (m-o-m, %) 2.0 (Sep 2014) → 1.2 (Oct) → -4.1 (Nov) → 2.4 (Dec) → -4.9 (Jan 2015) → 1.5 (Feb) → 6.5 (Mar) → -2.3 (Apr) → 4.5 (May) → 3.2 (Jun)
06
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
The labor market continued to recover as the unemployment rate hit 5.3 percent in June, the lowest since April 2008, and 231,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in May. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousand) 423 (Nov 2014) → 329 (Dec) → 201 (Jan 2015) → 266 (Feb) → 119 (Mar) → 187 (Apr) → 260 (May) → 231 (Jun)
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
12
(thousands)
600 10 400 200
8
0 6 -200 -400
4
-600 2 -800 -1,000
0
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2014.1
2015.1
Unemployment rate (right)
China China’s economic growth held steady in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter, as the economy grew 7.0 percent year-on-year, but concerns about a slowdown continue as the manufacturing PMI fell in July. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.8 (Oct 2014) → 50.3 (Nov) → 50.1 (Dec) → 49.8 (Jan 2015) → 49.9 (Feb) → 50.1 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr) → 50.2 (May) → 50.2 (Jun) → 50.0 (Jul)
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 18
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
(%)
(%)
70
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
07
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Real GDP Industrial production Fixed asset investment (accumulated) Retail sales Exports Consumer prices1 Producer prices1
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4¹ 7.7 7.7 7.7 10.0 9.7 10.0 20.6 19.6 19.6 14.3 13.1 13.5 8.3 8.6 7.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.4
Q1 7.4 8.7 17.6 12.0 -3.5 2.3 -2.0
2014 Q2 Q3 7.5 7.3 8.9 8.0 17.3 16.1 12.3 11.9 5.0 13.0 2.2 2.0 -1.5 -1.3
Q4 7.3 7.6 15.7 11.7 8.6 1.5 -2.7
Q1 7.0 6.4 13.5 10.6 4.7 1.2 -4.6
2015 Q2 May 7.0 6.3 6.1 11.4 11.4 10.2 10.1 -2.1 -2.5 1.4 1.2 -4.8 -4.6
Jun 6.8 11.4 10.6 2.8 1.4 -4.7
1. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan The Japanese economy showed a moderate recovery in June, despite weak retail sales, as industrial production and exports improved. Consumer prices increased 0.4 percent (0.1% excluding fresh food) in June, growing at a slower rate compared with the previous month, but the prices excluding fresh food and energy grew 0.6 percent, which is higher than the previous month’s. The BOJ decided to maintain its 80 trillion yen a year quantitative easing program at a monetary policy meeting on August 6 and 7. (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4 1.8 1.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 -2.7 9.5 17.4 -0.0 0.4 1.4
Annual -0.1 2.1 1.7 4.8 2.7
Q1 1.2 2.3 3.8 6.6 1.5
2014 Q2 -1.8 -3.1 -7.2 0.1 3.6
Q3 -0.5 -1.3 3.9 3.2 3.3
Q4 0.3 0.8 1.0 9.1 2.6
Q1 1.0 1.6 -2.1 9.0 2.3
2015 Apr 1.2 0.3 8.0 0.6
May -2.1 1.7 2.4 0.5
Jun 0.8 -0.8 9.5 0.4
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6
Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0
-5 -2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -25
-6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
08
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Eurozone The eurozone economy is recovering as the ECB has continued with its quantitative easing program and due to a weak euro. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.1 (Nov 2014) → 50.6 (Dec) → 51.0 (Jan 2015) → 51.0 (Feb) → 52.2 (Mar) → 52.0 (Apr) → 52.2 (May) → 52.5 (Jun) → 52.4 (Jul) (Percentage change from previous period)
2012
2013
Annual Annual Real GDP
-0.8
-0.3
2014
2015
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
0.2
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.4
-
-
-
-
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.7
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.4
1.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.4
-
Retail sales
-1.7
-0.8
0.6
-0.4
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.7
1.0
-0.4
0.7
0.1
-
Exports (y-o-y)
7.7
1.1
0.3
1.0
2.3
1.0
0.6
2.9
4.5
5.1
11.0
8.6
2.7
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.5
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3
Source: Eurostat
(%)
(%)
10 8
2
6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -3
-10
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
2. Private consumption Private consumption in the second quarter of 2015 (advanced GDP) fell 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 1.6 percent compared to a year ago.
09
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
(Percentage change from previous period)
Annual
Q1
2013 Q2
1.9
-0.1
0.5
1.1
0.6
1.8
0.4
-0.4
0.8
0.5
0.6
-0.3
-
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.2
-
2.6
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
Private consumption² (y-o-y)
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4¹
20151 Q1¹ Q2¹
1
Q3
Q4
Annual¹
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption 12
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales fell 3.7 percent month-on-month in June as durable goods (down 1.6%), such as household appliances, semi-durable goods (down 12.1%), such as clothing, and nondurable goods (down 1.1%), such as cosmetics, all decreased. The index rose 0.8 percent compared with the same period of the previous year.
Retail sales 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.1
2005.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
10
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
Annual
2013 Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q1
2015 May¹
Jun¹
Retail sales
-
0.8
0.4
-
0.2
-0.2
1.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
-0.1
-3.7
(y-o-y)
0.7
0.5
1.1
1.7
2.4
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.6
3.0
3.3
0.8
- Durable goods²
0.3
-0.3
0.2
5.1
3.8
-0.2
1.8
1.3
5.2
-0.1
-1.5
-1.6
· Automobiles
2.1
2.1
-2.1
16.6
9.8
5.3
1.2
6.3
3.9
4.1
5.2
2.8
- Semi-durable goods³
2.1
0.7
-0.4
-0.6
-1.4
-1.1
4.8
-1.8
-3.5
0.0
0.7
-12.1
- Nondurable goods4
0.4
1.5
0.8
0.8
-0.9
0.2
-0.7
1.0
-0.5
1.4
0.3
-1.1
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Retail sales by type 50
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Durable goods
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
Department store sales, which fell sharply in the previous month due to the MERS outbreak, showed signs of recovery in July, while credit card use also improved. (y-o-y, %)
2014 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2015 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Credit card use
8.7
3.1
10.0
5.7
15.3
7.1
8.6
14.5
Department store sales
-0.9
-11.0
6.6
-5.7
1.3
3.1
-11.9
0.9
Large discount store sales
-3.8
-18.3
24.5
-6.5
0.0
0.5
-10.2
-1.9
Domestic sales of gasoline
-0.4
7.3
12.1
8.6
9.6
3.3
1.0
-2.9
Domestic sales of cars
27.2
3.9
-3.8
5.5
2.8
-0.2
9.4
3.6
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association
11
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced GDP) rose 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 4.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2015. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
Annual -0.8 -2.3 3.1
Facility investment² (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment
2013 Q3 3.5 2.3 6.3 -3.5
Q4 4.2 11.6 2.3 9.1
Annual 5.8 5.0 7.7
Q1 -1.4 7.2 -3.4 3.7
2014 Q2 1.3 7.7 0.4 3.6
2015 Q3 0.2 4.2 2.0 -3.8
Q4 4.0 4.2 5.6 0.4
Q1¹ 0.2 5.8 -0.7 2.4
Q2¹ 0.4 4.8 -
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment 40
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
Facility investment (y-o-y)
The facility investment index in June rose 3.8 percent month-on-month as an increase in machinery investment offset a decrease in transportation equipment investment. The index rose 11.9 percent year-on-year.
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
Transportation equipment
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Machinery
12
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2013 Annual Annual Facility investment index
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q21
2015 May1
Jun1
-0.8
5.2
-4.0
1.7
-0.9
8.6
-1.6
-1.5
-1.3
3.8
-
-
7.5
6.7
1.5
5.4
8.4
5.1
0.8
11.9
(y-o-y) - Machinery
-2.1
3.9
-6.1
0.9
-0.8
11.7
-1.3
-5.9
-8.2
7.4
- Transportation equipment
2.8
8.8
1.6
3.6
-1.4
1.5
-2.4
10.2
17.2
-3.3
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Facility investment is projected to increase amid improving average manufacturing operation ratios as well as recovering business sentiment, which had been negatively affected by the MERS outbreak. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 74 (Nov 2014) → 75 (Dec) → 77 (Jan 2015) → 73 (Feb) → 82 (Mar) → 80 (Apr) → 82 (May) → 76 (Jun) → 67 (Jul) → 70 (Aug)
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
70
(trillion won)
60
9
50 40
8
30
7
20
6
10 0
5
-10
4
-20 -30
3
-40
2
-50
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m)
2013 Annual 6.6
Annual 14.8
Q1 18.5
2014 Q2 4.0
Q3 49.4
Q4 -6.3
Q1 -2.6
Q2¹ 14.9
May¹ 15.0
Jun¹ 6.6
-
-
-2.0
-11.3
45.2
-26.0
6.2
0.8
-24.5
-6.5
-Public
20.5
94.2
184.6
-45.0
418.5
-27.6
-66.9
61.7
69.4
84.7
-Private
5.1
4.8
4.7
9.1
7.7
-2.0
12.0
12.5
11.3
2.8
Machinery imports Average manufacturing operation ratio Facility investment adjustment pressure²
1.1
5.8
2.5
11.9
1.7
7.0
8.4
-1.1
-6.3
9.9
76.5 -0.9
76.1 -1.5
77.1 -0.7
76.1 -1.1
76.0 -0.5
75.1 -3.5
74.4 -2.5
74.2 -2.7
73.2 -4.1
75.2 0.2
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
13
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
4. Construction investment Construction investment in the second quarter of 2015 (advanced GDP) rose 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter and 1.7 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
Annual
2013 Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1¹
2015
Construction investment²
5.5
-0.8
-4.8
1.0
5.3
0.5
0.9
-7.8
7.4
1.7
(y-o-y)
-
7.4
3.5
-
4.1
0.2
2.3
-1.5
0.6
1.7
Q2¹
- Building construction
11.2
0.2
-3.3
4.4
3.2
3.1
2.4
-7.3
4.5
-
- Civil engineering works
-2.5
-2.5
-7.2
-4.4
8.9
-3.8
-1.8
-8.8
12.7
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction investment 15
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
The value of construction completed (constant) in June rose 3.9 percent month-on-month as building construction and civil engineering works both increased. The index rose 0.5 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works 1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2015 Q21 May1
Jun¹
10.2
-0.8
1.0
-0.4
-2.7
-3.9
4.8
-2.8
2.2
3.9
-
-
6.6
0.1
-1.9
-5.9
-2.0
-4.0
-4.8
0.5
15.1 4.4
7.8 -12.3
4.8 -4.6
2.0 -4.1
-3.8 -0.8
-3.7 -4.2
5.0 4.5
-1.5 -5.0
7.2 -6.1
1.0 9.1
14
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40
(y-o-y, %)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Civil engineering works
The construction investment outlook is mixed, as building permits increased while unsold houses rose and new apartment sales declined. Unsold houses (thousand, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 40 (Oct 2014) → 40 (Nov) → 40 (Dec) → 37 (Jan 2015) → 34 (Feb) → 29 (Mar) → 28 (Apr) → 28 (May) → 34 (Jun) New apartment sales (thousand, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 64 (Oct 2014) → 43 (Nov) → 17 (Dec) → 15 (Jan 2015) → 9 (Feb) → 33 (Mar) → 55 (Apr) → 59 (May) → 46 (Jun) → 291 (Jul) 1. Estimate
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2004.1
2005.1
Construction orders
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Building permit area
15
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013
2014
Annual Annual Construction orders (current value)
-12.9
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
15.3
2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q21
May1
Jun1
15.5
25.4
42.8
-7.5
55.4
49.4
83.1
45.5 -26.9
-
-
-5.1
12.4
22.0
-29.0
50.9
12.9
34.2
- Building construction
-10.2
24.5
11.2
45.6
61.8
-5.0
87.7
49.2
95.7
20.9
- Civil engineering works
-18.2
-4.4
24.0
-11.5
-6.2
-13.1
-1.5
50.1
29.3
126.8
-7.3
11.2
18.4
21.6
14.7
-4.6
11.0
25.1
26.5
28.8
Building permits²
1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
5. Exports and imports Exports in July declined 3.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $46.61 billion. Exports decreased at a faster rate compared with the previous month (down 2.4%) due to fewer days worked (2.5 days). However, exports declined at a slower rate in July compared with the first half average (down 5.1%). Exports declined in most items, excluding vessels, steel and semiconductors. By region, shipments to most regions fell with the exception of the US. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 57.1 (vessels), 16.4 (steel), 6.6 (semiconductors), -6.2 (automobiles), -16.0 (mobile phones), -17.2 (petrochemicals), -28.1 (petroleum products) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 1.8 (US), -0.6 (ASEAN countries), -5.6 (EU), -6.4 (China), -16.6 (Latin America), -18.6 (Middle East), -28.0 (Japan)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was down 3.3 percent year-on-year, posting US $1.86 billion in July. Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 1.6 (Nov 2014) → -1.2 (Dec) → -7.3 (Jan 2015) → 9.4 (Feb) → -8.5 (Mar) → -8.0 (Apr) → -6.7 (May) → -12.8 (Jun) → -3.3 (Jul)
(US $ billion)
2013
2014
Annual Annual Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3
Q4
559.63 572.66 137.53 145.67 141.76 147.70
Jul
Q1
Q2
48.20 133.45 135.25
Jun
Jul1
46.68
46.61
2.1
2.3
1.6
3.2
3.6
0.9
5.2
-3.0
-7.2
-2.4
-3.3
2.05
2.11
2.07
2.19
2.07
2.13
1.93
2.01
1.99
1.99
1.86
16
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Exports by item 160 140
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Export growth rate
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Semiconductors
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Automobiles
Steel
Imports in July fell 15.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $38.85 billion. Capital goods imports rose in July, while consumer goods and commodity imports fell. Import growth by category (Jun → Jul, y-o-y, %) -26.0 → -26.3 (commodities), 3.2 → 2.0 (capital goods), 5.6 → -2.6 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)
2013 Imports
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
515.59
525.51
132.37
130.96
132.84
129.35
45.86
111.86
110.50
36.70
38.85
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
1.9
2.0
3.3
5.4
-2.8
5.7
-15.5
-15.6
-13.6
-15.3
Average daily imports
1.89
1.94
1.99
1.97
1.94
1.86
1.83
1.68
1.62
1.56
1.55
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by item 100
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Import growth rate
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Commodities
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Capital goods
17
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Exports and imports 60
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(US $ billion)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Trade balance
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Exports
Imports
The trade balance (preliminary) grew at a slower pace in July, posting a surplus of US $7.76 billion, while staying in the black for the 42nd consecutive month. (US $ billion)
2013 Trade balance
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
Q2
Jun
Jul1
44.05
47.15
5.17
14.72
8.92
18.35
2.34
21.60
24.75
9.98
7.76
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 2.3 percent month-on-month in June backed by strong refined petroleum, machinery and automobiles, despite decreases in communications equipment and semiconductors. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index increased 1.2 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of refined petroleum (up 7.7%), machinery (up 5.3%) and automobiles (up 3.1%) rose, while communications equipment (down 17.4%), semiconductors (down 2.0%) and furs & clothing (down 5.1%) decreased. Compared to a year ago, production of automobiles (up 10.3%), refined petroleum (up 15.4%) and groceries (up 4.0%) rose, while communications equipment (down 18.9%), other transportation equipment (down 7.3%) and electronic parts (down 3.0%) declined.
18
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2¹
2015 Apr May¹ Jun¹
-0.3
-0.6
0.1
-0.9
-0.1
-0.9
-1.3
-1.6
2.3
Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
(y-o-y)
0.7
0.0
0.7
0.5
1.2
-1.9
-0.9
-1.5
-2.6
-3.0
1.2
Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
-1.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.3
-1.7
2.2
Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity²
0.7
0.1
0.7
0.4
1.2
-1.9
-1.0
-1.5
-2.7
-2.9
1.3
0.7
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
-1.3
0.8
- Domestic consumption
-0.8
0.3
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.5
0.4
1.1
-1.6
0.1
- Exports
2.6
-0.4
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
1.1
-2.0
-2.0
-2.2
-1.0
1.9
Inventory³
4.4
-1.8
-0.3
0.6
0.9
-2.2
3.5
3.6
2.1
-1.5
3.0
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)
76.5
76.1
77.1
76.1
76.0
75.1
74.4
74.2
74.1
73.2
75.2
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.1
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 2.7 percentage points month-on-month to 129.2 percent as inventories rose 3.0 percent and shipments increased 0.8 percent. Inventories of refined petroleum (up 18.2%), electronic parts (up 8.8%) and automobiles (up 5.7%) rose, while primary metals (down 1.9%), communications equipment (down 4.9%) and processed metals (down 1.0 %) declined. Shipments of primary metals (up 2.8%), other transportation equipment (up 7.0%) and electrical equipment (up 4.1%) rose, while communications equipment (down 15.9%), semiconductors (down 2.9%) and computers (down 13.4%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 2.0 percentage points month-on-month to 75.2 percent.
19
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Shipment and inventory 10
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(m-o-m, %)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Shipment growth
Inventory growth
Average manufacturing operation ratio 100
2015.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
90
80
70
60
50 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Mining and manufacturing production in July is expected to be affected by positive factors, such as recovering demand following the end of the MERS outbreak and the release of new cars. However, large inventory increases in June may offset the positive factors.
7. Service sector activity Service output in June declined 1.7 percent month-on-month, as gains in professional, scientific & technical services were offset by declines in wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants and entertainment, cultural & sports services. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output rose 0.7 percent. Wholesale & retail (down 2.9%, m-o-m), hotels & restaurants (down 9.9%, m-o-m) and entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 13.5%, m-o-m) fell sharply as a result of the MERS outbreak.
20
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Real estate & renting (up 1.0%, m-o-m) rose for the fourth consecutive month, while professional, scientific & technical services (up 9.1%, m-o-m) surged.
Service sector activity 15
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Weight Annual Q4 Service activity index
Annual
2014 Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2015 Q21 May1 Jun1
100.0
1.5
0.8
2.2
0.7
0.1
0.9
1.0
0.5 -0.1 -0.4
-1.7
21.6
0.1
0.8
-0.2
-0.4 -0.5
0.1
0.1
0.5
-2.9
- Transportation services
8.5
1.0
-0.3
1.7
0.8
0.6
2.6
0.1 -2.9
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.2 -1.5
- Publishing & communications services
8.4
2.2
3.0
1.8
-1.2
0.9 -0.2
0.1 -2.7 -1.2 -0.6
-0.9
14.7
0.5
0.5
5.2
2.5
1.2
2.1
2.9
2.2 -0.9
1.9
- Real estate & renting
5.3
2.5
2.7
6.2
0.2
4.4
0.0
3.6 -2.1
6.9
1.6
1.0
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
3.3
0.4
2.3
0.1
2.6 -1.1
2.0 -2.9 -0.9 -3.5
9.1
- Business services
3.3
2.1
0.4
2.4
1.5 -0.6
0.3
1.0
1.9
-2.9
- Education services
10.9
0.8
0.3
1.3
1.6 -1.9
1.1
0.0
0.8 -0.8
0.1
-0.3
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
5.2
1.7
6.3
1.4
1.4
2.7
2.1 -1.0 -0.1
-2.0
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.7
-0.4
-1.1
0.0 -4.7
6.1 -2.1
2.6 -4.4
- Membership organizations & personal services
3.6
6.1
-1.0
-0.6
1.1 -1.0
0.5 -3.8
1.8
2.0 -1.3
-3.1
- Sewerage & waste management
0.6
-0.4
1.2
1.0
0.2 -1.4
1.6
1.8
3.2
1.9
- Wholesale & retail
- Financial & insurance services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
0.7
1.0
0.0 -1.4 1.1
-5.6
2.6 -1.2 -0.5 -3.2 -0.5
-9.9
1.1
2.7
0.5 -0.2
7.0 -13.5
1.5
21
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
June 2015 service output by business 14 12
(y-o-y, %)
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) Real estate & renting
10
Professional, scientific & technical services
8 6 4
Hotels & restaurants
Wholesale & retail
2 0
Total index
-2
Financial & insurance services
Transportation services
-4 -6
Membership organizations & personal services
Education services
Business services
Health & social welfare services
Publishing & communications services
-8 -10 -12
Sewerage & waste management Entertainment, cultural & sports services
Service output is expected to recover from the MERS impact in July, but the recovery will be slow, as the number of foreign tourists has yet to fully rebound.
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in June increased by 329,000 from a year earlier to 26,210,000 and the employment rate was unchanged at 60.9 percent. By industry, services and manufacturing continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to lead employment growth, while temporary workers rose and self-employed workers decreased.
Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,000
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 27
(thousands)
800
26
600
25
400 24 200 23 0 22
-200
21
-400 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
22
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Number of employed (millions)
Q4 Annual Q1
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
2015 May Jun
24.24 24.68 25.07 25.41 25.35 25.60 24.91 25.79 25.93 25.77 25.88 25.27 26.19 26.21
Employment rate (%)
59.1 59.4 59.5 60.3 60.0 60.2 58.8 60.8 60.9 60.4 60.9 59.0 60.9 60.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
59.1 59.4 59.5 59.7 59.9 60.2 60.4 59.9 60.3 60.3 59.8 60.5 59.9 59.9
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
415
437
386
421
541
533
729
464
517
422
398
354
379
329
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
440
451
394
402
556
601
717
518
638
531
474
441
501
452
- Manufacturing
63
14
79
26
49
146
123
136
194
129
165
139
140
133
- Construction
-2
22
-19
4
-9
42
27
12
57
72
23
72
42
29
- Services
386
416
318
354
507
424
570
387
403
315
282
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-25
-14
-8
19
-15
-68
12
- Wage workers
427
315
483
526
604
548
路 Permanent workers
575
436
615
632
637
路 Temporary workers
-78
-2
-96
-65
路 Daily workers
-70 -120
-37
-11
336
304
222
-54 -121 -109
-76
-87 -123 -123
711
485
519
476
430
442
460
457
443
606
478
333
355
462
355
351
346
2
140
74
118
226
141
78
82
-27
65
-42
-35
-35
31 -111
-40
-20 -110
4
136
47
121
-97 -105
-63
-15
19
-22
-3
-54
-32
-88
1
124
-67
-83
-54
1
-7
-14
19
7
-7
-49
4
-57
- Male
238
234
186
179
262
266
373
228
268
196
195
141
183
131
- Female
177
203
200
242
279
267
357
236
249
226
203
213
195
199
- 15 to 29
-35
-36
-50
-41
46
77
97
53
102
56
42
32
114
71
- 30 to 39
-47
-31
-21
-34
-42
-21
-6
-42
-7
-29
-25
-1
-44
-55
- 40 to 49
57
11
22
30
53
38
99
34
15
4
13
-47
-7
-12
- 50 to 59
291
270
254
279
285
239
323
227
215
190
181
177
147
155
- 60 or more
149
222
181
187
200
200
218
192
192
201
187
192
167
170
- Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers
-82 -128
Source: Statistics Korea
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
23
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Employment by industry
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
100
80
60
70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4 70.8 70.2 70.0 69.9
40 6.9
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1 7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1 7.0
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1 7.0
7.1
7.1 7.2
7.2
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
20 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.1 0
4.3
4.6
2013.1 2
5.6
6.3
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11 12 2014.1 2
Services
4.7
4.4
4.5
5.3 3
6.1 6.4 4
5
Construction
6.5
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
5.8
6
7
8
9
10
11 12 2015.1 2
Manufacturing
4.2
3.9
4.1 4.9
80
5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3
5.9
5.9
4
5
6
5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7
4.1 4.0
(%) 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7
4.1
22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3
60
5.5
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2
3
6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0
6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8
6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0
5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2
19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.5
40
20
46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.8 47.9
0 2013.1 2
3
4
5
6
Unpaid family workers
8
9
10
11
Self-employed workers
Unemployment rate 6
7
12 2014.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
Daily workers
8
9
10
11 12 2015.1 2
Temporary workers
3
4
5
6
Permanent workers
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
24
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
The number of unemployed persons in June increased by 101,000 year-on-year to 1,050,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 3.9 percent. The unemployment rate was unchanged among those in their 30s, but rose in all other age groups.
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
Q4
Jun
Q1
2015 May
Jun
Number of unemployed (thousands)
855
820
807
777
733
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
-65
-35
-13
7
- Male
-48
-26
-6
11
- Female
-17
-9
-7
-4
18
80
84 103
70
63
95
32
21
24
Unemployment rate (%)
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
3.5
4.0
3.3
3.2
3.5
4.1
3.8
3.9
937 1,031 977
884
854
949 1,089 1,022 1,050
11
137
107
121
136
58
71
101
-7
49
37
59
42
25
49
77
125 165 40
62 3.7
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
3.9
-15 to 29
7.6
7.5
8.0
7.9
7.9
9.0
9.8
9.4
8.6
8.3
9.5
10.3
9.3
10.2
- 30 to 39
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.0
2.8
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.3
- 40 to 49
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.7
2.3
- 50 to 59 - 60 or more
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.2
1.4
2.3
4.4
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.7
4.1
2.2
2.1
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in June was up 104,000 from a year earlier to 15,770,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 63.3 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 212,000, y-o-y) and housework (down 72,000, y-o-y) decreased, while those due to rest (up 102,000, y-o-y) and childcare (up 37,000, y-o-y) increased.
Labor force participation rate
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
65 (%) 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
25
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Economically inactive population (millions)
Q4 Annual Q1
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
2015 May Jun
15.95 16.08 16.22 15.98 16.17 15.98 16.40 15.69 15.76 16.07 15.67 16.47 15.76 15.77
Labor force participation rate (%) 61.1 61.3 61.5 62.1 61.7 62.4 61.3 63.1 63.0 62.4 63.1 61.5 63.3 63.3 (Seasonally adjusted)
61.1 61.3 61.5 61.6 61.8 62.4 62.6 62.2 62.5 62.4 62.1 62.8 62.3 62.3
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands) - Childcare - Housework - Education - Old age - Rest
112
128
141
-5 101 -51 -45 182
-2 123 -12 148 -53
1 -3 77 54 -7
78
-91 -246 -433 -226 -222 -101 -141
9 -14 -39 -29 -57 -41 -80 -112 -131 -230 -127 -99 88 -44 -81 -76 -68 -109 32 21 93 81 113 91 12 21 -92 -197 -90 -65
72
73
104
-31 -59 41 43 37 -67 -64 -91 -49 -72 -72 -117 -141 -230 -212 89 113 68 82 96 -15 -1 154 138 102
Source: Statistics Korea
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI fell 2.1 percent in July, from 2,074 points to 2,030 points. The KOSPI declined early in the month following the Greek referendum and the Chinese stock market crash, but rebounded after Greece reached a deal with its creditors over its bailout. However, the KOSPI fell again later in the month due to Chinese stock market volatility and domestic companies’ poor earnings results. The KOSDAQ fell 2.3 percent from 742 points to 725 points, as the Chinese stock market tumbled, and biotech and healthcare stocks declined.
Stock prices 2,200 2,000
(monthly average)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
KOSPI
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
KOSDAQ
26
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Closing rate)
Stock price index (points) Market capitalization (trillion won) Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
KOSPI Jul 2015 2,030.2 1,268.9 6.8 32.3
Jun 2015 2,074.2 1,293.1 6.0 32.8
KOSDAQ Jul 2015 Change1 725.1 -17.2 (-2.3%) 199.1 -3.9 (-1.9%) 4.4 0.2 (4.8%) 10.5 0.3 (2.9%)
Jun 2015 742.3 203.0 4.2 10.2
Change1 -44.0 (-2.1%) -24.2 (-1.9%) 0.8 (13.3%) -0.5 (-1.5%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate in July rose 54.5 won to 1,170.0 won from 1,115.5 won at the end of June, despite export companies selling dollars, due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid Greek debt negotiation uncertainties and Chinese stock market turbulence, and also due to the possibility of a rate hike in the US within the year. The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose from 912.0 won in June to 943.2 won in July, as the dollar appreciated more relative to the won than it did to the yen, due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. (Closing rate)
Dollar-Won 100 Yen-Won
2009 Dec 1,164.5 1,264.5
2010 Dec 1,134.8 1,393.6
2011 Dec 1,151.8 1,481.2
2012 Dec 1,070.6 1,238.3
2013 Dec 1,055.4 1,002.3
2014 Dec 1,099.3 913.0
Jun 1,115.5 912.0
2015 Jul 1,170.0 943.2
Change1 -4.7 -3.3
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
Foreign exchange rates 1,800
(month-end, \)
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Dollar-Won
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
100 Yen-Won
9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 1.79 percent in June to 1.77 percent in July. Treasury bond yields
27
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
declined due to poor second quarter growth, despite news that the National Assembly passed the supplementary budget.
Interest rates
Source: The Bank of Korea
10 (monthly average, yearly, %) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2015.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(Closing rate, %)
Call rate (1 day) CD (91 days) Treasury bonds (3 yrs) Corporate bonds (3 yrs) Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
2009 Dec 2.01 2.88 4.44 5.56 4.98
2010 Dec 2.51 2.80 3.38 4.27 4.08
2011 Dec 3.29 3.55 3.34 4.21 3.46
2012 Dec 2.77 2.89 2.82 3.29 2.97
2013 Dec 2.52 2.66 2.86 3.29 3.23
2014 Dec 2.03 2.13 2.10 2.43 2.28
2015 May 1.74 1.80 1.75 2.01 1.92
Jun 1.50 1.65 1.79 2.01 2.07
Jul 1.50 1.64 1.77 2.01 2.03
Change1 -1 -2 -4
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in May rose 9.3 percent from a year earlier. Private sector credit rose, led by household loans, and money supply in the overseas sector also increased due to the current account surplus. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2009 Annual
2010 Annual
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
2013 Annual
M1²
16.3
M2 Lf ³
10.3
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
7.9
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
1. Balance at end May 2015, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
2014 Annual
2015 Mar
Apr
May
May1
10.9
15.5
17.7
18.9
622.0
6.6
8.3
9.0
9.3
2,166.7
7.0
9.3
10.0
10.3
2,961.0
28
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30
20
10
0
-10 -20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Reserve money
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
M1
2015.1
Lf
Bank deposits rose in June, led by instant access deposits (13.2 trillion won → 18.1 trillion won), particularly corporate deposits, as the government increased spending to meet expenditure targets for the first half of the year. Asset management company (AMC) deposits rose, led by fixed-income funds (-0.1 trillion won → 2.3 trillion won) and new funds (1.4 trillion won → 6.1 trillion won), due to inflows of pension funds and insurance company funds.
Deposits in financial institutions
Source: The Bank of Korea
60 (y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)
Bank deposits AMC deposits 1. Balance at end June 2015
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Dec 54.8 36.9 58.9 37.0 41.0 115.4 52.0 -27.6 -16.7 -16.6 18.8 17.7 47.0 -8.7
Apr -0.1 14.2
2015 May Jun 15.6 19.9 -2.2 6.3
Jun1 1,323.7 428.1
29
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in June posted a surplus of US $12.19 billion, staying in the black for 40 consecutive months. The goods account surplus rose from US $9.16 billion in May to US $13.22 billion in June, as exports increased due to more days worked (2.5 days). Goods exports (US $ billion) 43.84 (May 2015) → 49.30 (Jun 2015) Goods imports (US $ billion) 34.68 (May 2015) → 36.08 (Jun 2015) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) -2.4 (total), -14.3 (oil), -13.6 (petrochemicals), 16.4 (steel), 3.0 (semiconductors), 6.1 (automobiles), 12.3 (mobile phones) Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -13.6 (total), -26.0 (commodities), 3.2 (capital goods), 5.6 (consumer goods)
Current account balance 15
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5
0
-5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Goods account
2009.1
2010.1
Services account
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Current account
The services account deficit rose from US $0.40 billion to US $2.49 billion, as the travel account deteriorated due to the MERS outbreak. Services account (US $ billion, May → Jun) -0.45 → -0.50 (manufacturing), 0.37 → -0.23 (transportation), -0.41 → -1.04 (travel), 0.74 → 0.75 (construction), 0.01 → -0.16 (intellectual property rights), -0.71 → -1.28 (other businesses)
The primary income account surplus rose from US $0.29 billion to US $1.68 billion due to first quarter dividend payments. The secondary income account deficit fell from US $0.43 billion to US $0.22 billion.
30
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(US $ billion)
2013 Annual Annual
2014
2015 May
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
Q2
7.96
23.45
28.94
Jun1
Current account
81.15
89.22
15.19
24.24
22.57
27.23
- Goods balance
82.78
92.69
17.75
26.43
21.68
26.84
6.65
25.26
- Services balance
-6.50
-8.16
-3.50
-1.84
-0.90
-1.92
-0.54
-5.41
- Primary income balance
9.06
10.20
1.91
1.33
3.14
3.82
2.23
4.83
-0.86
0.29
1.68
- Secondary income balance
-4.19
-5.50
-0.96
-1.68
-1.35
-1.51
-0.38
-1.22
-1.11
-0.43
-0.22
8.62
12.19
34.93
9.16
13.22
-4.01
-0.40
-2.49
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in June posted a net outflow of US $10.51 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion) -9.92 (Nov 2014) → -9.80 (Dec) → -8.25 (Jan 2015) → -5.54 (Feb) → -11.03 (Mar) → -10.07 (Apr) → -8.81 (May) → -10.51 (Jun)
FDI net outflows increased from US $1.20 billion to US $4.99 billion.
Capital & financial account balance 15
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Portfolio investment
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Financial derivatives
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Capital & financial account
Net outflows of portfolio investment surged from US $0.36 billion to US $6.50 billion as foreign investment in Korean shares posted a deficit of US $0.13 billion from a surplus of US $1.49 billion while Korean investment in overseas shares rose from US $0.20 billion to US $2.75 billion. Financial derivatives investment switched from a net inflow of US $0.40 billion to a net outflow of US $0.24 billion, while other investment turned from a net outflow of US $4.76 billion to a net inflow of US $2.24 billion. The current account is expected to post a smaller surplus in July, considering the July trade surplus (US $7.76 billion).
31
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices rose 0.7 percent year-on-year in July.
Consumer price inflation 7
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Consumer price inflation
(%)
2014 Dec
Mar
2015 Apr
Jan
Feb
May
Jun
Jul
Month-on-Month
0.0
0.5
Year-on-Year
0.8
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.7
Source: Statistics Korea
Declines in oil product prices (down 17.3%), public gas fees (down 20.1%) and electricity fees (down 6.7%) pushed down consumer price inflation in July by 1.5 percentage points. However, rising bus (up 8.8%) and subway fares (up 15.2%), a low base effect from a year ago, and rising agricultural, livestock and fishery product prices caused by droughts put upward pressure on consumer prices.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured Public Housing Public Personal products Oil products utilities rents services services
Year-on-Year (%)
0.7
3.7
-0.2
-17.3
-11.3
2.6
1.6
1.9
Contribution (%p)
-
0.27
-0.06
-0.90
-0.58
0.25
0.22
0.61
32
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Core inflation stayed in the 2 percent range. Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products rose 2.0 percent year-on-year, and consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 2.5 percent.
Prices
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
16 (y‐o‐y, %) 13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Consumer price inflation
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Core inflation
2015.1
Producer price inflation
(y-o-y, %)
Jan
Feb
Mar
2015 Apr
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
May
Jun
Jul
Source: Statistics Korea
The expected annual inflation rose to 2.6 percent. Expected inflation (%, Bank of Korea) 2.6 (Jan 2015) → 2.6 (Feb) → 2.5 (Mar) → 2.5 (Apr) → 2.5 (May) → 2.5 (Jun) → 2.6 (Jul)
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices fell in July due to oversupply concerns and a strong dollar. Dubai crude prices fell as the dollar remained strong, a deal was reached on Iran’s nuclear program, and an increase in oil-drilling rigs in the US raised concerns over a supply glut. Dubai crude ($/barrel) 59.8 (1st week Jul) → 56.6 (2nd week) → 56.7 (3rd week) → 54.6 (4th week) → 52.2 (5th week)
33
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
US dollar index (Mar 1973=100) 95.8 (1st week Jul) → 96.4 (2nd week) → 97.2 (3rd week) → 97.5 (4th week) → 97.0 (5th week) US oil-drilling rigs 640 (1st week Jul) → 645 (2nd week) → 638 (3rd week) → 659 (4th week) → 664 (5th week)
International oil prices 160
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai crude
2015.1
WTI
(US $/barrel, period average)
2013 Annual Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Dubai crude
105.2
96.6
104.4
106.1
101.6
74.6
51.9
57.7
63.0
60.8
55.6
Brent crude
108.7
99.1
108.1
109.7
102.7
76.7
55.1
61.1
65.6
63.8
56.7
WTI crude
98.0
93.1
98.7
103.0
97.2
73.4
48.6
54.6
59.4
59.8
51.0
Source: Korea PDS
Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall at a moderate pace, despite the weakening won, as falling international gasoline prices were reflected with a time lag. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,584.6 (1st week Jul) → 1,583.3 (2nd week) → 1,579.0 (3rd week) → 1,572.6 (4th week) → 1,566.2 (5th week) International gasoline prices ($/barrel) 82.5 (3rd week Jun) → 80.5 (4th week) → 78.4 (1st week Jul) → 74.3 (2nd week Jun) → 74.8 (3rd week) Dollar-won exchange rate (won) 1,120 (1st week Jul) → 1,130 (2nd week) → 1,138 (3rd week) → 1,154 (4th week) → 1,165 (5th week)
34
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Won/liter, period average)
2013 Annual Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Apr
2015 May
Jun
Jul
Gasoline prices
1,924.5 1,827.6 1,882.7 1,868.9 1,837.8 1,721.1 1,485.4 1,507.4 1,542.2 1,580.0 1,576.0
Diesel prices
1,729.6 1,637.0 1,699.9 1,680.0 1,641.4 1,526.7 1,312.6 1,320.2 1,343.5 1,368.8 1,354.7
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
160
(thousand won/B)
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
2014.1
2015.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
International grain prices rose in July, due to heavy rain in the US Midwest, heatwaves and droughts in Europe, and a downward revision of inventories. On July 10, the US Department of Agriculture cut its 201516 forecast for global corn inventories by 2.7 percent to 1.9 million tons. International grain price increases in July (m-o-m, %) corn (11.5), wheat (5.4), soybeans (4.9), raw sugar (1.1)
Nonferrous metal prices fell due to delays in Greek bailout talks, concerns over china’s economic slowdown, and oversupply. China’s manufacturing PMI hit a record low of 50.0 in July. Nonferrous metal price increases in July (m-o-m, %) zinc (-4.1), copper (-6.5), aluminum (-2.7), nickel (-10.9) (Period average)
2013 Annual Annual 1
Reuters Index (sep 18,1931=100)
2,774
1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
2,523
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2,600
2,608
2,491
2,397
2,368
Apr
2015 May
Jun
Jul
2,389
2,374
2,415
2,380
35
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
International commodity prices
Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 4000
470 430
3000
390 350 310
2000
270 230
1000
190 150
0
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
CRB (left)
2014.1
2015.1
Reuters index (right)
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Apartment prices rose 0.3 percent month-on-month nationwide in July. Apartment price growth decelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.4%), which includes Seoul (up 0.4%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.3%). Apartment price growth in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area also decelerated (up 0.2%). Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Apartment price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.3), Daegu (0.8), Gwangju (0.4), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.3)
Apartment sales prices by region
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
3
2
1
0
-1 2009.1
Nationwide
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
36
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Nationwide apartment prices Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Jul Annual Feb 1.9 6.9 0.0 0.3 1.7 -0.1 2.1 0.2 -1.7 0.5 -3.0 -1.1 1.5 -0.3 2.6 0.2 -1.2 0.3 -2.9 -1.4 1.1 -0.4 2.5 0.2 -1.0 0.3 -3.5 -1.1 1.2 -0.5 3.0 0.2 -1.4 0.3 -2.3 -1.7 1.1 -0.3 1.9 0.2 6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.9
0.1
1.6
Mar 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
2015 Apr 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4
May 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3
Jun 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4
Jul 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices rose 0.3 percent month-on-month nationwide in July. Rental prices rose 0.5 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.2 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.6), Seocho (0.8), Songpa (0.6), Gangdong (0.6), Seongdong (0.9), Nowon (0.9)
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2010 Annual 7.1 6.3 6.4 7.6 5.1
Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Jul Annual Feb 12.3 3.5 4.7 3.4 0.1 3.0 0.3 11.0 2.1 6.2 4.7 0.2 4.4 0.5 10.8 2.1 6.6 3.6 0.1 4.1 0.5 11.1 2.4 6.7 3.3 0.1 4.8 0.6 10.6 1.8 6.4 3.8 0.1 3.2 0.3 14.5
4.6
3.3
2.2
0.1
1.7
0.2
2015 Mar Apr May Jun 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5
Jul 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3
(m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1
-2 2009.1
Nationwide
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
37
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Apartment sales transactions rose 0.5 percent from 109,872 transactions in May to 110,383 transactions in June, and were up 50.1 percent from 73,535 transactions a year earlier.
Apartment sales transactions
(Thousands)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 67
Nationwide
82
61
71
84
74
77
76
87
109
91
91
79
79
112 120 110 110
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Monthly apartment transaction volume
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
160 (thousands) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
Nationwide
2011.1
7
2012.1
7
2013.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
12.2 Land market Land prices rose 0.21 percent month-on-month nationwide in June. Land price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.19%), which includes Gyeonggi Province (up 0.15%) and Incheon (up 0.19%). Land price increase in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.14 (Nov 2014) → 0.14 (Dec) → 0.14 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.17 (Mar) → 0.19 (Apr) → 0.17 (May) → 0.19 (Jun)
Land price growth also accelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.25%), which include Busan (up 0.29%), Daejeon (up 0.33%) and Sejong (up 0.44%). Land price increase in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.18 (Nov 2014) → 0.20 (Dec) → 0.15 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.22 (Mar) → 0.21 (Apr) → 0.20 (May) → 0.25 (Jun)
38
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Land prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Apr May Jun 0.96 1.05 1.17 0.96 1.14 1.96 0.48 0.49 0.53 1.07 0.48 0.59 0.20 0.18 0.21
Nationwide Seoul
1.40 0.53
0.97
0.38
1.21
2.66 0.59 0.69 0.67
1.26 0.57 0.69 0.23 0.23 0.23
Gyeonggi
1.22 1.49
1.47
1.04
0.91
1.24 0.37 0.27 0.33
0.77 0.35 0.41 0.15 0.11 0.15
Incheon
1.99 1.43
0.66
0.46
0.87
1.35 0.25 0.32 0.40
0.90 0.37 0.53 0.20 0.14 0.19
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
There were 279,000 land transactions in June, up 6.5 percent from the previous month and up 40.2 percent from 199,000 a year earlier. Land transactions rose in Busan (up 11.3%, m-o-m), Daejeon (up 9.3%, m-o-m), Gangwon Province (up 16.1%, m-o-m) and South Gyeongsang Province (up 14.7%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 36.4 percent of total land transactions, rose 10.7 percent monthon-month to 102,000 and 28.9 percent from 79,000 a year earlier.
Land transactions
(Land lots, thousands)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nationwide 187 208 170 187 220 199 219 204 214 258 228 257 219 199 278 293 262 279 Seoul
16
18
13
17
22
18
21
21
23
29
25
23
20
21
33
36
34
33
Gyeonggi
41
43
33
37
46
39
45
42
46
57
50
53
45
43
62
66
60
65
Incheon
8
10
8
8
10
9
8
9
10
13
11
9
8
8
12
13
12
13
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Land transaction volume 500,000
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
39
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in June rose 0.5 percent month-on-month and 1.2 percent year-on-year. Output rose in mining & manufacturing (up 2.3%, m-o-m), construction (up 3.9%, m-o-m) and public administration (up 6.6%, m-o-m), but fell in services (down 1.7%, m-o-m).
Index of all industry production
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
20 (%) 15
10
5
0
-5
-10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
Index of all industry production(y-o-y)
2014
2015
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr1
May1
Jun1
-0.1 -0.5
1.3 2.1
-1.9 0.6
2.2 0.6
-0.5 2.0
-0.5 0.7
-0.6 0.2
0.5 1.2
122.2 0.2
123.1 0.7
123.6 0.4
124.4 0.6
124.7 0.2
125.1 0.3
125.0 -0.1
125.1 0.1
99.8 -0.1
100.1 0.3
100.1 0.0
100.5 0.4
100.3 -0.2
100.3 0.0
99.8 -0.5
99.5 -0.3
(m-o-m, %)
124.9 0.5
125.9 0.7
127.8 1.5
129.0 0.9
130.5 1.2
131.1 0.5
132.2 0.8
132.3 0.1
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
101.1 -0.1
101.5 0.4
102.5 1.0
103.1 0.6
103.8 0.7
103.7 -0.1
104.0 0.3
103.5 -0.5
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %) Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (2010=100)
1. Preliminary
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.3 points month-on-month to 99.5. The value of construction completed, imports and nonfarm payroll employment rose, while mining & manufacturing production, service output, retail sales and domestic shipments declined.
40
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Components of the coincident composite index in June (m-o-m) value of construction completed (1.3%), imports (0.4%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.1%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.2%), service output (-0.4%), retail sales (-0.8%), domestic shipments (-0.2%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.5 points to 103.5. Among the components of the leading composite index, the ratio of import to export prices, KOSPI and spreads between long & short term interest rates rose, while six other components declined. Components of the leading composite index in June (m-o-m) ratio of export to import prices (0.4%), KOSPI (0.8%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.05%p), inventory circulation indicator (-0.7%p), consumer expectations index (-1.3p), domestic shipments of machinery (-0.4%), value of construction orders received (-8.8%), international commodity prices (-1.2%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-2.3%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
110 (points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
41
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
2015 Tax Revision Bill Comprehensive Measures for Youth Employment
Policy Issues
42
Policy Issues
2015 Tax Revision Bill The Korean economy has posted less than 1 percent growth for five quarters in a row with slowing down exports and the recent outbreak of MERS, which dampened recovering private consumption. Furthermore, youth employment is expected to be negatively affected by the new mandatory retirement system, which raises the retirement age. Against this backdrop, the government announced the 2015 tax revision bill that focuses on stimulating the economy to increase youth employment and promote consumption, supporting the working class and pursuing fair taxation.
1. Stimulating the economy Increase youth employment - I ntroduce tax credits for the number of young permanent employees added: 5 million won per employee for 3 years starting in 2015 - Small enterprise tax support1 to be given according to the amount of sales instead of the number of employees in order to encourage small enterprises to continue to add jobs - Increase the tax deduction for wage increase2 from 100
Job seekers look at postings at a job fair held in Seoul on August 19. Increasing youth employment is one of the main focuses of the 2015 tax revision bill.
percent to 150 percent for young permanent employees - E xpand the tax credit for corporate education contributions (2-25%) to tech high schools, which are currently applied to contributions made to universities and vocational high schools for providing training designed to meet industrial demand - Expand the gift tax deferral for startups to those expanding businesses, and expand the tax deferral from 3 billion won to 5 billion won for startups that create 5 or more new jobs - Tax credits for SME startups (a 50% corporate or income tax reduction for 5 years) to be applied to
1) Corporate or income tax reduction of 10-30% 2) Tax package to strengthen the link between corporate earnings and household income: Businesses choose between either A or B A: [Income x 80% - (investment + wage increases + dividends + etc.)] x 10% B: [Income x 30% - (wage increase + dividends + etc.)] x 10%
43
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
electronic security service businesses - SME startups to receive tax credits for their R&D investment at any time for the next 10 years, an increase from 5 years - R evise the foreign investment tax reduction to promote job creation by companies with foreign investment: taking into account 40-50 percent of foreign investment made and 30-40 percent of jobs created when calculating the tax reduction instead of 50-70 percent of foreign investment made and 20 percent of jobs created
Promote private consumption - Temporarily (1 year) raise the income tax deduction rate from 30 to 50 percent for an increase in spending if it is paid in cash or with debit cards - Abolish the individual consumption tax on luxury consumer electronics, perfumes and royal jelly - Items worth 5 million won or more to be subject to individual consumption taxes, an increase from 2 million won - Temporarily (1 year) refund VATs on cosmetic plastic surgery paid by foreign tourists - Foreign tourists not to be required to pay VATs if they purchase inexpensive items 3, instead of being refunded later - Corporations to receive tax deductions for cultural activities for the amount equivalent to 20 percent of corporate business entertainment costs - VATs to be exempt on creative art performance tickets and education services provided by art, history or science museums - Raise the customs duty free ceiling from US $100 to US $150
- C ustoms duties paid for online purchases to be refunded within 6 months after the refund is made
Boost exports and investment - Allow SME exporters to defer their import VAT payments until the time of reporting to the tax authorities - Exporters get customs duty payments refunded for 3 years, instead of 2 years - Introduce a foreign portfolio investment fund which is not subject to capital gains taxes on foreign stock transactions, stock price evaluation and foreign exchange movements4 - I ntroduce tax support 5 for investing in venture companies through investment in kind, such as by providing intellectual properties and patent rights - Income tax deductions for angel investment6 to be expanded to investment in companies that are younger than 3 years and invest 30 million won or more a year in R&D (20 million won or more for knowledge intensive services) - Extend the tax credits aimed at stimulating SOC investment, promoting facility investment and R&D investment, and supporting SMEs and employee welfare, which will otherwise be sunset at the end of 2015
Support corporate restructuring - C apital gains taxes on stock swaps between corporations to be deferred until the sales of those stocks, and stock transaction taxes to be exempt - Capital gains tax deferral given to asset sales due to mergers7 to be expanded to all industries in addition
3) Items to be decided taking into consideration sales levels 4) The fund invests more than 60% of its capital in foreign shares, and individuals can open an account until the end of 2017 with a maximum investment of 30 million won 5) Defer taxes until the sales of stocks acquired and impose capital gains taxes 6) 30-100% of the investment is tax-deductible
44
Policy Issues
to shipbuilding, construction and pharmaceuticals - Debt in subsidiaries, if it is paid or taken over by parent companies, to be included in costs incurred in parent companies - Companies to receive tax deferral for gains from restructuring processes, such as asset sales, shareholder contribution and debt relief - Ease requirements for the high-tech SME M&A support8 and extend it until the end of 2018 - Ease requirements for the SME business restructuring support9, and extend it until the end of 2018 - Extend the tax supports until the end of 2018, which will otherwise be sunset in 2015, such as capital gains tax deferral for stock swaps, stock takeovers, asset sales and investment in kind, as well as tax exemption for debt takeovers
2. Supporting the working class Asset building and housing support - Give tax exemptions and reductions on gains from Individual Savings Accounts (ISA): Gains of up to 2 million won to be tax-exempt and a 9 percent tax rate to be applied to gains exceeding 2 million won at the point of redemption10 - Mutual fund capital gains from stock transactions and stock price evaluation to be taxed at the point of redemption
- Increase tax support for rental property businesses: a 30 percent income or corporate tax reduction for staying in the business for more than 4 years and a 75 percent reduction for renting small sized housing for more than 8 years - C orporate taxes to be exempt on capital gains from nonbusiness real estate sales if the properties are sold to large-sized rental property businesses that rent more than 100 housing units, and individuals to receive a 10 percent capital gains tax reduction if they sell their land to large-sized rental property businesses
SME and venture employee support - Introduce a 50 percent income tax reduction for long-term SME employee rewards11 - SME employees to receive an income tax exemption for long-term ownership12 of company shares - Venture employees to pay taxes on gains from their employee stock options with a 5 year installment plan, an extension from 3 years - SMEs that create jobs to receive tax credits for social security contribution costs incurred due to new employment, and the SME tax support 13 for maintaining employment through the job sharing system to be extended until the end of 2018 - Welfare contributions made to outsourced companies to be counted as costs - I ntroduce extra tax credits 14 for permanent
7) 3 year grace period followed by 3 year installment plan 8) 10% of the technology value assessed to be corporate tax-deductible, and the tax deduction will be expanded to companies paying 130% or more of the net asset value for the M&A, or taking over more than 30% of shares 9) 50% income or corporate tax reduction for new businesses for 4 years, and the tax reduction will be expanded to companies where new businesses account for 50% or more of total revenues 10) Individuals without any capital gains will be eligible for ISA, and will deposit up to 20 million won a year with a minimum deposit period of 5 years, but a 3 year minimum deposit period will be applied to employees earning less than 25 million won a year or small business owners earning 16 million won or less 11) Talented SME employees who work for the company for more than 5 years receive the financial rewards contributed by both the company and employees 12) More than 6 years 13) 50% of wage cuts to be tax-deductible for both employees and SMEs
45
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
employees transferred from temporary positions to the Earned Income Boosting Tax Code, which gives tax credits on the portion of permanent employee wages increased - SMEs to receive tax credits of 2 million won per employee if they transfer the employee from temporary positions to permanent positions by the end of 2016
Support for the self-employed, farmers and fishermen - Restaurant businesses to receive a 1 year extension of the deductible VAT on the purchases of agricultural and fishery products until the end of 2016 - B usiness owners to receive tax credits for their healthcare and education expenses until the end of 2018 if they earn more than 90 percent of the last 3 year average - Raise the gift tax exemption ceiling for farmers and fishermen from 0.5 billion won to 1.5 billion won - The special gift tax exemption for farmland to be applied to a barn land inheritance, which gives a maximum of 100 million won tax exemption over 5 years
3. Fair taxation Increase fairness - Tighten regulations regarding ‘cars for business use’, of which the costs are tax-deductible - Private enterprises to be subject to capital gains taxes on the sales of ‘cars for business use’ - Increase capital gains taxes on stock transactions: Large shareholders of KOSPI listed companies who own more than 1 percent of the company shares or 2.5 billion won worth of shares to be subject to
14) 10% for SMEs and medium-sized leading corporations, 5% for large corporations
capital gains taxes, and for KOSDAQ listed companies, more than 2 percent or 2 billion won worth of shares, with a single capital gains tax rate of 20 percent - Religious groups to be required to choose either income tax withholding or income tax filing - Limit customs duty refunds to imports used to make export products, and impose a 2.5 percent additional tax a year on the amount fraudulently refunded
Reform tax support - Increase taxes on prize money earned from gambling games, including horseracing betting or slot machines - Increase individual consumption taxes on admissions to horseracing, cycle racing and motorboat racing games - Lower facility investment tax deduction rates as the tax deduction does not boost employment - Provide a single 100 million won capital gains tax reduction a year for real estate sales to which special tax reduction is applied, such as the sales of farm land owned by farmers or the sales of land to be used for public services - L ower capital gains tax reduction rates on compensation of land taken by eminent domain as the compensation is provided according to the market value - Private businesses earning more than 1 billion won a year not to receive the 1 percent revenue tax credit - L ift tax exemptions on cooperatives’ dividend income, and apply low tax rates instead - Lift or restructure tax credits that have achieved goals or proved to be ineffective
Increase transparency - Add scrap iron to materials subject to withholding VAT - Add 5 businesses, furniture retailers and opticians’
46
Policy Issues
Tax until the end of 2018 - Clearly define the gift taxes to which a negative approach is applied, and set down requirements for individual cases - Earnings from business opportunities offered by affiliates to be regarded as gifts and subject to gift taxes - Administrative personnel to be excluded from the R&D tax credit - T ighten tax credit requirements for Korean investment in foreign companies from 10 percent shareholding to 5 percent or influential voting rights if the investment is made back door, such as purchasing the shares of foreign parent companies whose subsidiaries are in Korea - Unlisted stock trading to be VAT-exempt, in addition to listed stock trading - Market makers to be exempt from stock transaction taxes, which will stimulate the stock market
among others, to the list of businesses that are required to issue cash receipts
Regulate overseas tax evasion - Tighten the residency requirement for being exempt from reporting overseas financial accounts to 183 days per 2 years - Multinational companies to be required to submit extra documents on their international trade, which will prevent tax evasion and illegal insider trading - E arned income taxes to be withheld from high income foreign employee wages
Other revisions - Put a cap on tax deductions for deficits carried forward at 80 percent of earnings companies have for the year - The capital gains tax credit of up to 30 percent per 10 years given to the land with long-term ownership to be expanded to the sales of land used for nonbusiness purposes - Tax rates for bitumen to be revised according to energy producing capacities - Extend the Transportation, Energy and Environment
4. Expected revenue The government expects to earn a total of 1,089.2 billion won of tax revenue due to these revisions.
Tax revenue increase
(y-o-y, billion won)
Total
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 and beyond
1,089.2
556.1
835.3
-3.5
-154.7
-144.0
Income tax
378.6
238.6
121.1
190.4
-80.5
-91.0
Corporate tax
239.8
35.7
529.2
-197.9
-74.2
-53.0
VAT
313.5
122.7
186.8
4.0
-
-
Others
157.3
159.1
-1.8
0
0
0
Total
Tax payer burden increase
(billion won)
Working class/SMEs
High income earners/Large conglomerates
Others
Total
-152.5
1,052.9
188.8
1,089.2
47
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Comprehensive Measures for Youth Employment The government announced a comprehensive youth employment package, which covers increasing young adult jobs, addressing qualification mismatches in the job market, and improving support.
1. Increase young adult jobs The government will increase young adult jobs in public services, strengthen support to encourage private sector employment, reform labor markets to be youth employment-friendly and foster promising service industries.
Public sector - Around 15,000 teaching jobs to be made available in 2016-2017 as the government will accept more early retirements by as many as 2,000 a year - Gradually increase jobs for those teaching students with disabilities - Around 10,000 nursing jobs to be added by 2017 with the introduction of total patient care services at hospitals - Steadily increase nursing jobs at daycare centers - Create a total of 4,500 civil service jobs by 2017
1) For up to 10,000 employees a year
- As many as 8,000 young adults to find jobs at public institutions due to the peak wage system
Private sector - Give tax incentives to companies for increasing permanent jobs for young adults compared with the previous year - Provide wage support1 to companies hiring young adults through the peak wage system or by reforming their wage systems - Internships at promising SMEs to be increased to 50,000 a year, and the government will revise support for these opportunities to lead to permanent employment - Provide strengthened training in promised areas to 50,000 job seekers
Reform the labor market and promote service industries - A ccelerate the labor market reform focusing on promoting the peak wage system, eliminating uncertainties in the labor market, and improving flexibility and security - Work on the approval of service sector promotion acts
48
Policy Issues
at the National Assembly, and develop the healthcare, tourism, content and software industries
3. Improve youth employment support Streamline youth employment projects
2. Address qualification mismatches in the job market Promote industry-university joint training - University programs to be evaluated from industries’ point of view - Students’ job finding performance to be looked at when evaluating Leaders in Industry-University Cooperation (LINC) - C ontinue to promote vocational high schools, technical colleges and workplace training for university students, in order to encourage working and studying at the same time
Restructure university programs - Restructure university programs to meet industrial demand and prepare for the future - R elease 5 and 10 year labor force supply and demand outlooks by university major, in order for universities to refer to the outlooks when restructuring their programs - Finalize the plan for PRIME2 by the end of 2015, and provide up to 30 billion won in support per university to accelerate restructuring
Promote working in SMEs - Provide better work environment including housing, transportation and childcare services - Increase opportunities for young SME employees to be enlisted as skilled industrial personnel
- Reduce 34 employment support programs, such as training, internship and public employment service programs, to 18 by merging overlapping or similar programs
Reform public employment services - Merge separate programs of consulting services, training, internships, brokerage services and overseas employment services into a comprehensive package called Find My Job, through which 200,000 young job seekers will receive help - Expand the Youth Employment Center nationwide, a college employment service program which is currently run in 20 universities
Increase overseas employment - Increase overseas employment to 10,000 employees per year in promising areas - Streamline the K-Move, an overseas employment service, by merging similar programs and discontinuing poorly performing ones - Increase the number of K-Move centers from 10 to 15, and lower barriers to enter overseas employment service markets and ease price regulations - S trengthen customized education programs specifically designed for overseas projects in question, and make diplomatic efforts to facilitate entering the country
2) Program for Industry Needs-Matched Education, a university program that meets industrial needs
49
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Government Works on Follow-ups to President’s Address to the Nation SMEs to Receive Support for Reducing Emissions Government to Invest in Biomedical Products and Medical Equipment Korean FDI up 12.1% in First Half of 2015 Korea Grand Sale Starts Early to Boost Tourism Industrial Complex Regulations to be Eased Korea Grows 0.3% in Q2 (Advanced)
Economic News Briefing
50
Economic News Briefing
Government Works on Follow-ups to President’s Address to the Nation As President Park Geun-hye stressed structural reforms in four major areas (public sector, education, labor market, financial regulations) and support for the service industry in her Address to the Nation on August 6, the government will develop follow-up measures with detailed monthly schedules for the agenda. The government will make sure that the necessary legal amendments will be passed at the National Assembly, and will make efforts to pass the bills that have been submitted to the National Assembly, such as the Basic Law on Service Industry Development and the Labor Standards Act. To achieve tangible results within the year, progress in the four major reforms will be reviewed at the Ministerial Meeting on the Economy on a monthly basis. Regarding the service sector, the government picked industries that have great growth potential, such as healthcare, tourism, finance, education, logistics and software, and announced follow-up measures for each one. The measures include increasing accommodation facilities for foreign tourists, easing regulations to help foreign universities establish a campus in Korea,
President Park Geun-hye delivers her Address to the Nation at Cheongwadae on August 6. the government will develop followup measures to the president's Address to the nation, which stressed structural reforms in four major areas and support for the service industry.
promoting global logistics services, and supporting the software industry.
SMEs to Receive Support for Reducing Emissions The Ministry of Environment has earmarked 2 billion won to support small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) participating in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The money will be used to help participating companies maintain their competitiveness while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. SMEs will receive a support of up to 50 percent of their reduction facility investment, or up to 300 million won per company.
Government to Invest in Biomedical Products and Medical Equipment The government will spend 40 billion won over the next three years to develop cutting edge biomedical
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ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
products, and another 40 billion won to support the medical equipment industry. The budget for biomedical products will be spent to develop stem cell-based and gene-based treatments, in which korea will become competitive in the global market in a short period of time. The budget for medical equipment will be used to help medical equipment companies develop new products and markets.
Korean FDI up 12.1% in First Half of 2015 Korean foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 12.1 percent from US $15.57 billion to US $17.45 billion in the first half of 2015 compared to the same period a year ago. FDI rose in finance & insurance (up 172.0%), wholesale & retail (up 83.0%) and mining (up 9.8%), but fell in manufacturing (down 6.3%) and real estate & renting (down 57.8%). FDI in Asia (up 30.1%) and Latin America (up 17.4%) increased, while FDI in Europe (down 12.8%) decreased. Korean FDI is expected to increase in 2015 amid economic recovery in North America and FDI promotion policies across the globe. However, uncertainties in the eurozone, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and the possibility of the spread of geopolitical conflicts could pose risks to Korean FDI, which has stayed on an upward trajectory since the fourth quarter of 2014.
Korea Grand Sale Starts Early to Boost Tourism This year’s Korea Grand Sale, a tourism promotion event, began earlier than scheduled and will continue for an extended period of time, in an effort to boost the tourism industry and domestic demand at a time when all travel warnings against korea due to the MERS
Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism Kim Jong-Deok (fourth from the right) and Korea Tourism Organization chief Jung Chang-Soo (fourth from the left) pose on stage with other participants at the kickoff ceremony for the Korea Grand Sale at Incheon International Airport on August 14.
outbreak are lifted. Taking this as an opportunity to encourage more foreign tourists to visit Korea, the government decided to kick off the Korea Grand Sale on August 14, instead of in the winter as was the case in previous years. The 2015 Korea Grand Sale will be held for 79 days, ending on October 31. A record number of businesses in tourism, transportation, accommodation, entertainment, food & beverage, performance, exhibition and communications are participating in this year’s event.
Industrial Complex Regulations to be Eased The government announced that it will ease regulations related to doing business in industrial complexes, making more services available in the industrial complex. In addition, the government will designate mixed-use zones in the complex, ease regulations regarding the sale of land, and streamline the process of setting up factories.
52
Economic News Briefing
retail, hotels & restaurants and healthcare & social welfare services.
Korea Grows 0.3% in Q2 (Advanced) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter. The real GDP was up 2.2 percent from a year earlier.
On the expenditure side, private consumption declined 0.3 percent due to decreasing semi-durable goods consumption, while facility investment grew 0.4 percent due to increasing transportation equipment investment. Construction investment was up 1.7 percent, led by building construction, and intellectual property investment rose 0.1 percent, as gains in software investment offset declines in R&D investment.
On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries contracted 11.1 percent due to droughts. Manufacturing grew 0.8 percent, led by mobile phones and automobiles, while construction grew 0.4 percent, led by residential housing construction. Services were up 0.1 percent, as gains in financial & insurance services and real estate & renting offset declines in wholesale &
Exports rose 0.1 percent, led by semiconductors and automobiles, while imports rose 0.5 percent, led by crude oil, automobiles and overseas consumption.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period) 1
2013 Q1 GDP
Q2
0.6
Q3
1.0 2
Q4
0.9 2
20151
2014 Q1
0.9 2
Q2
1.1 2
Q3
0.5 2
Q4
0.8 2
Q1
0.3 2
Q2
0.8 2
0.3 2
(2.1)
(2.7)
(3.2)
(3.5)
(3.9)
(3.4)
(3.3)
(2.7)
(2.5)
(2.2)2
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-2.0
0.7
4.1
3.3
-2.2
-2.0
2.0
2.8
3.4
-11.1
Manufacturing
1.6
1.1
0.8
0.8
2.2
1.1
-0.9
0.0
0.4
0.8
Construction
2.0
1.5
0.1
-1.2
1.4
0.1
0.9
-3.0
2.0
0.4
Services3
0.5
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.3
1.2
0.6
0.9
0.1
Private consumption
-0.1
0.5
1.1
0.6
0.4
-0.4
0.8
0.5
0.6
-0.3
Government consumption
1.2
1.9
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.6
2.1
0.2
0.2
0.7
Facility investment
2.7
0.9
3.5
4.2
-1.4
1.3
0.2
4.0
0.2
0.4
Construction investment
5.3
4.6
-0.8
-4.8
5.3
0.5
0.9
-7.8
7.4
1.7
Intellectual property investment
3.0
0.6
0.6
3.3
2.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
2.3
0.1
Exports
0.2
2.3
-0.7
1.3
1.4
1.3
-1.7
0.4
0.1
0.1
Imports
0.7
1.5
0.0
2.9
-1.1
1.2
-0.7
0.7
0.6
0.5
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
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ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Statistical Appendices
54
Statistical Appendices
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP
Final consumption Agri., fores. & Manufacturing expenditure fisheries
Period
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P
5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3
1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 2.6
7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 4.0
5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0
3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.1
0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.0
8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 5.8
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0
8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.2 -0.9 -3.6
-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4
11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5
-1.2 0.3 4.4 6.8
2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2
1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6
-3.2 4.3 4.9 6.5
1.3 8.9 7.4 3.5
-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.6
2014PⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3.9 3.4 3.3 2.7
5.6 3.3 1.4 1.3
5.1 5.1 3.3 2.4
2.7 1.7 2.0 1.8
5.8 3.3 3.3 0.7
4.1 0.2 2.3 -1.5
7.2 7.7 4.2 4.2
2015PⅠ Ⅱ
2.5 2.2
6.3 -3.5
0.7 0.4
1.9 2.0
2.4 2.6
0.6 1.7
5.8 4.8
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
55
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100)
Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
2012 2013 2014
107.4 108.2 108.2
1.3 0.7 0.0
107.2 108.1 107.9
1.5 0.8 -0.2
125.2 130.7 128.4
4.4 4.4 -1.8
104.8 106.4 108.7
1.6 1.5 2.2
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.0 109.3 104.3 113.0
-0.6 0.4 0.6 2.2
106.1 109.4 104.5 112.2
-0.5 0.9 0.7 2.2
123.1 119.2 124.5 130.7
4.6 3.8 8.7 4.4
103.2 106.8 105.6 110.0
1.2 1.8 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.7 109.8 105.5 110.9
0.7 0.5 1.2 -1.9
106.5 109.3 104.8 111.0
0.4 -0.1 0.3 -1.1
130.0 128.9 129.7 128.4
5.6 8.1 4.2 -1.8
105.3 108.4 108.3 112.9
2.0 1.5 2.6 2.6
2015 Ⅰ ⅡP
105.7 108.2
-0.9 -1.5
105.9 107.9
-0.6 -1.3
133.7 136.3
2.8 5.7
108.2 111.0
2.9 2.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.2 97.3 109.6 109.5 110.6 107.8 108.0 103.9 101.1 113.3 112.2 113.4
9.0 -8.3 -1.8 2.5 -0.1 -1.3 1.9 3.6 -3.4 4.1 -0.4 2.8
110.0 98.2 110.2 109.3 110.3 108.6 107.1 104.9 101.4 112.6 111.4 112.6
7.0 -7.4 -0.7 2.9 0.4 -0.5 1.8 5.0 -4.5 4.1 0.4 2.3
128.6 124.6 123.1 120.7 121.7 119.2 124.0 123.5 124.5 126.3 129.1 130.7
7.8 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.0 3.8 7.5 3.5 8.7 8.8 6.4 4.4
102.4 100.4 106.7 105.6 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.7 105.4 107.8 107.4 114.7
2.1 0.5 0.9 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.7 -0.3 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 101.0 112.9 112.4 108.4 108.5 112.3 101.2 103.1 109.8 108.3 114.7
-4.5 3.8 3.0 2.6 -2.0 0.6 4.0 -2.6 2.0 -3.1 -3.5 1.1
105.1 101.3 113.1 111.3 108.7 107.8 109.5 101.7 103.2 109.0 109.2 114.9
-4.5 3.2 2.6 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.2 -3.1 1.8 -3.2 -2.0 2.0
132.1 129.3 130.0 131.2 130.0 128.9 133.2 130.6 129.7 130.7 129.7 128.4
2.7 3.8 5.6 8.7 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.7 4.2 3.5 0.5 -1.8
104.7 101.8 109.4 106.9 108.8 109.6 108.7 107.9 108.3 110.6 109.8 118.4
2.2 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
108.1 96.0 113.0 109.5 105.2 109.8
1.8 -5.0 0.1 -2.6 -3.0 1.2
108.1 96.6 113.1 109.5 105.8 108.7
2.9 -4.6 0.0 -1.6 -2.9 0.8
132.4 133.0 133.7 135.2 134.4 136.3
0.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.4 5.7
107.1 104.6 113.0 111.2 111.5 110.4
2.4 2.8 3.3 4.0 2.5 0.7
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
Statistical Appendices
3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
2012 2013 2014
106.9 108.6 110.3
2.1 1.6 1.6
97.5 95.1 94.2
-2.7 -2.5 -0.9
78.6 76.5 76.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.1 108.3 108.8 109.3
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7
93.7 97.9 90.8 98.3
-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 0.0
77.3 76.1 75.4 77.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
109.6 109.9 110.6 111.0
1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6
92.8 96.8 91.5 95.8
-1.0 -1.1 0.8 -2.5
77.1 76.1 76.0 75.1
2015 Ⅰ ⅡP
111.2 111.2
1.5 1.2
90.1 94.9
-2.9 -2.0
74.4 74.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.9 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.6
1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9
98.9 84.9 97.2 97.9 99.4 96.3 94.6 90.7 87.0 99.7 98.2 96.9
6.9 -12.7 -5.5 -1.0 -3.1 -5.0 -2.7 2.7 -7.5 1.6 -2.5 0.8
78.8 77.3 75.9 75.8 76.4 76.2 74.7 76.8 74.8 77.0 76.5 77.4
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.7 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.8 110.9 110.9 111.1
1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4
91.9 87.5 99.0 99.8 95.6 94.9 98.7 86.8 88.9 95.8 94.1 97.6
-7.1 3.1 1.9 1.9 -3.8 -1.5 4.3 -4.3 2.2 -3.9 -4.2 0.7
77.8 76.3 77.2 77.2 74.9 76.3 77.9 74.7 75.4 74.2 74.6 76.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
111.1 111.0 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.3
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.1
93.0 81.1 96.3 95.8 91.9 96.9
1.2 -7.3 -2.7 -4.0 -3.9 2.1
74.1 75.1 73.9 74.1 73.2 75.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
57
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100)
Period
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)
Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
107.1 107.9 109.7
2.5 0.7 1.7
116.3 116.6 122.6
5.4 0.3 5.1
103.9 106.1 105.5
-0.3 2.1 -0.6
104.3 104.7 105.5
2.2 0.4 0.8
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.5 106.5 106.7 111.8
2.9 1.5 2.9 2.7
109.4 115.0 118.5 122.1
4.0 2.7 6.5 8.4
99.0 105.6 92.4 118.4
0.6 -0.4 -2.2 0.5
102.8 103.0 107.5 104.1
3.3 1.9 3.1 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.8 107.7 107.2 113.0
0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1
111.0 118.2 116.8 120.3
1.5 2.8 -1.4 -1.5
102.1 107.3 94.9 119.9
3.1 1.6 2.7 1.3
101.2 102.9 108.0 106.6
-1.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 108.6 108.8 115.1
2.4 0.8 1.5 1.9
117.2 121.2 123.4 128.6
5.6 2.5 5.7 6.9
100.3 104.9 96.2 120.4
-1.8 -2.2 1.4 0.4
103.8 104.3 107.5 106.5
2.6 1.4 -0.5 -0.1
2015 Ⅰ ⅡP
108.0 111.9
1.6 3.0
126.6 132.2
8.0 9.1
98.7 104.2
-1.6 -0.7
103.4 105.7
-0.4 1.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.3 105.4 110.9 106.8 109.2 104.5 107.8 111.3 113.2 114.6
-2.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0 -1.4 2.0 1.3 0.1
112.3 105.9 114.8 115.1 119.7 119.9 127.5 116.2 106.8 120.5 120.2 120.1
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 2.0 -0.2 1.4 1.8 -7.8 2.9 -2.4 -4.7
102.8 93.3 110.2 106.7 113.8 101.3 98.0 86.6 100.1 113.9 123.8 122.1
-1.9 1.5 9.8 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.6 5.4 2.6 -0.8 4.1 0.4
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.0 105.6 106.8 111.6 105.8 105.3 108.8
-6.7 3.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 2.8 1.9 2.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 99.1 109.3 105.6 112.1 108.1 109.9 107.1 109.3 111.1 114.3 119.9
5.5 -0.4 1.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 4.6
116.1 116.9 118.5 114.2 121.8 127.5 131.1 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.7 138.1
3.4 10.4 3.2 -0.8 1.8 6.3 2.8 2.0 12.8 -1.3 7.1 15.0
100.7 92.0 108.2 105.8 111.8 97.2 95.7 91.5 101.5 116.0 120.6 124.7
-2.0 -1.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.8 -4.0 -2.3 5.7 1.4 1.8 -2.6 2.1
111.9 93.9 105.5 101.5 107.7 103.7 106.3 108.6 107.5 105.4 104.9 109.3
10.0 -5.4 2.9 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.7 -3.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5
2015 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
107.3 104.4 112.4 110.8 115.8 109.0
-2.8 5.3 2.8 4.9 3.3 0.8
128.2 117.2 134.5 129.3 130.4 136.9
10.4 0.3 13.5 13.2 7.1 7.4
97.9 92.6 105.7 107.6 116.0 88.9
-2.8 0.7 -2.3 1.7 3.8 -8.5
101.7 103.6 105.0 103.5 108.9 104.7
-9.1 10.3 -0.5 2.0 1.1 1.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
Statistical Appendices
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period
Consumer sentiment index
2012 2013 2014
102.5 102.2 101.8
1.6 -0.3 -0.4
102.8 103.4 102.6
2.5 0.6 -0.8
102.4 101.7 101.5
1.2 -0.7 -0.2
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.0 98.7 102.4 104.7
2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2
108.3 100.9 102.6 101.8
10.7 1.8 0.1 -9.1
100.8 97.7 102.3 105.9
-1.2 -2.5 -1.5 2.4
-
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 100.3 102.4 103.9
-2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.8
103.4 103.0 100.9 103.2
-4.5 2.1 -1.7 1.4
99.5 99.2 103.0 104.2
-1.3 1.5 0.7 -1.6
-
2015 Ⅰ ⅡP
101.8 100.9
1.1 0.6
99.9 101.9
-3.4 -1.1
102.5 100.4
3.0 1.2
-
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.8 96.9 103.3 99.5 99.7 96.9 103.4 104.0 99.7 108.8 102.9 102.3
8.2 -1.7 0.2 0.3 -1.9 -2.0 0.6 2.5 -6.0 2.1 -2.6 -3.2
110.3 106.4 108.1 98.1 101.7 102.8 109.0 103.8 94.9 104.4 103.1 97.8
19.2 8.2 5.5 4.3 1.3 0.0 3.5 5.5 -8.7 -3.8 -7.0 -16.1
108.1 92.9 101.3 100.0 98.8 94.4 101.1 104.2 101.7 110.7 102.8 104.2
3.9 -5.9 -1.9 -1.3 -3.2 -3.0 -0.7 1.3 -5.0 4.7 -0.7 3.1
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.4 96.6 103.0 101.7 99.8 99.5 104.8 100.2 102.2 105.0 100.9 105.8
-5.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 0.1 2.7 1.4 -3.7 2.5 -3.5 -1.9 3.4
99.9 106.7 103.6 97.9 103.4 107.7 107.6 95.0 100.1 99.8 102.9 106.8
-9.4 0.3 -4.2 -0.2 1.7 4.8 -1.3 -8.5 5.5 -4.4 -0.2 9.2
103.4 92.3 102.8 103.3 98.2 96.1 103.7 102.4 103.0 107.3 100.0 105.4
-4.3 -0.6 1.5 3.3 -0.6 1.8 2.6 -1.7 1.3 -3.1 -2.7 1.2
109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107 107 105 103 101
2015 1 2 3 4 5P 6P 7
104.8 94.5 106.0 105.5 98.8 98.4 -
2.3 -2.2 2.9 3.7 -1.0 -1.1 -
101.2 92.8 105.8 107.1 98.1 100.6 -
1.3 -13.0 2.1 9.4 -5.1 -6.6 -
106.3 95.2 106.1 104.7 99.1 97.5 -
2.8 3.1 3.2 1.4 0.9 1.5 -
102 103 101 104 105 99 100
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
59
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Estimated facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) (2010=100) change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period 2012 2013 2014
21,648 23,078 26,485
-13.9 6.6 14.8
2,142 2,580 5,012
-11.0 20.5 94.2
19,506 20,497 21,473
-14.2 5.1 4.8
100.6 99.8 105.0
-2.8 -0.8 5.2
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,587 5,865 5,144 6,481
-11.5 8.8 2.1 32.0
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,158 5,311 4,622 5,406
-6.2 4.0 3.7 21.7
91.7 101.1 99.3 107.0
-12.7 -3.5 3.2 11.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,624 6,099 7,687 6,075
18.5 4.0 49.4 -6.3
1,221 305 2,708 778
184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6
5,403 5,794 4,979 5,297
4.7 9.1 7.7 -2.0
98.6 107.9 100.8 112.8
7.5 6.7 1.5 5.4
2015 Ⅰ ⅡP
6,453 7,010
-2.6 14.9
405 493
-66.9 61.7
6,048 6,517
12.0 12.5
106.9 113.4
8.4 5.1
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,844 1,666 2,078 1,846 2,127 1,893 1,934 1,622 1,588 2,604 2,094 1,783
-4.6 -34.5 13.2 0.0 16.2 10.3 5.4 7.5 -6.2 72.3 26.5 2.3
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.5 -28.5 815.5 28.2 -51.4
1,704 1,497 1,957 1,753 1,877 1,681 1,575 1,530 1,517 1,816 1,931 1,659
-9.4 -18.9 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.3 14.2 -4.8 27.4 26.3 11.5
90.1 83.9 101.0 98.7 102.1 102.5 108.4 100.6 88.8 109.6 101.9 109.4
-7.8 -23.1 -6.7 -7.1 -3.5 0.2 2.8 11.7 -4.6 16.0 10.3 7.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,748 1,847 3,029 2,276 1,826 1,997 1,779 4,090 1,818 1,932 2,303 1,840
-5.2 10.9 45.8 23.3 -14.1 5.5 -8.0 152.2 14.5 -25.8 10.0 3.2
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5
1,660 1,727 2,016 2,179 1,709 1,906 1,690 1,549 1,739 1,722 1,874 1,701
-2.6 15.3 3.0 24.3 -8.9 13.4 7.3 1.3 14.7 -5.2 -2.9 2.5
90.3 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.3 104.9 111.4 90.7 100.2 99.8 112.5 126.0
0.2 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.1 2.3 2.8 -9.8 12.8 -8.9 10.4 15.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
2,324 1,856 2,273 2,782 2,099 2,128
32.9 0.5 -24.9 22.2 15.0 6.6
116 141 148 127 197 169
32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7
2,208 1,715 2,126 2,656 1,902 1,959
33.0 -0.7 5.5 21.9 11.3 2.8
102.7 98.6 119.5 113.5 109.2 117.4
13.7 3.1 8.8 2.6 0.8 11.9
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
Statistical Appendices
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won)
Period
Value of construction completed y-o-y (Total) change (%)
Type of order Public Private
Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) y-o-y change (%) (Total)
y-o-y change (%)
Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
88,713 98,089 98,465
-3.3 10.6 0.4
33,807 34,459 32,004
-3.7 1.9 -7.1
50,622 59,714 62,403
-2.0 18.0 4.5
89,395 77,885 89,833
-6.2 -12.9 15.3
26,071 24,736 26,497
-8.9 -5.1 7.1
59,811 50,947 61,321
-3.3 -14.8 20.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,178 25,760 23,718 28,732
4.7 14.9 11.1 10.7
6,998 9,318 8,058 10,085
-6.0 4.8 6.0 2.1
12,415 15,455 14,739 17,106
14.0 24.2 16.3 17.1
13,826 18,694 16,833 28,532
-39.0 -27.4 -8.5 26.3
4,292 5,371 4,987 10,086
-24.1 -3.6 -7.7 6.8
9,180 12,636 11,442 17,688
-43.7 -33.8 -8.6 48.9
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,675 26,174 23,601 27,016
7.4 1.6 -0.5 -5.0
7,147 8,706 7,243 8,909
2.1 -6.6 -10.1 -11.7
13,676 16,512 15,360 16,855
10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.5
15,972 23,436 24,035 26,390
15.5 25.4 42.8 -7.5
5,898 6,577 5,190 8,833
37.4 22.5 4.1 -12.4
9,628 16,537 18,175 16,982
4.9 30.9 58.8 -4.0
2015 Ⅰ ⅡP
21,252 24,956
-2.0 -4.7
6,554 8,145
-8.3 -6.4
13,949 15,824
2.0 -4.2
24,821 35,013
55.4 49.4
4,566 9,181
-22.6 39.6
19,980 107.5 25,318 53.1
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,272 6,236 7,670 81,057 81,607 94,947 7,854 7,666 8,199 8,637 9,088 10,708
8.2 3.3 3.0 18.4 11.7 15.0 11.6 16.5 6.0 17.6 12.2 4.6
2,072 2,346 2,581 2,830 2,797 3,691 2,635 2,553 2,870 2,952 3,118 4,015
-2.4 -1.1 -12.4 7.0 -2.7 9.4 11.1 10.0 -1.2 13.9 3.8 -6.2
3,962 3,662 4,790 4,978 5,088 5,389 4,908 4,827 5,004 5,344 5,635 6,126
17.4 7.5 16.4 27.5 23.9 21.6 14.7 22.4 12.4 20.0 18.1 13.7
3,557 4,723 5,546 5,151 6,221 7,321 5,775 4,690 6,368 7,751 8,083 12,698
-52.4 -44.4 -17.4 -19.9 -14.9 -39.0 -15.4 -13.0 3.0 33.6 11.6 32.9
1,300 1,281 1,711 1,565 1,564 2,241 1,493 1,474 2,021 1,518 2,664 5,904
-36.1 -42.3 21.9 7.7 47.4 -26.7 -35.2 12.0 13.5 -23.0 26.5 10.0
2,109 3,290 3,781 3,160 4,537 4,940 4,148 3,172 4,122 6,144 5,204 6,340
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,057 6,665 7,953 8,476 8,191 9,506 7,914 7,721 7,966 8,239 8,339 10,438
12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.2 -2.5
2,314 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,382 2,429 2,324 2,491 2,532 2,673 3,704
11.7 -6.0 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.4 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.3 -7.8
4,452 4,237 4,987 5,458 5,316 5,737 5,149 5,112 5,099 5,369 5,293 6,194
12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -6.1 1.1
5,528 5,549 4,895 7,359 6,834 9,243 6,969 8,688 8,377 7,755 6,427 12,209
55.4 17.5 -11.7 42.9 9.9 26.2 20.7 85.2 31.6 0.0 -20.5 -3.9
2,034 2,241 1,623 1,894 2,000 2,682 1,533 1,628 2,029 1,416 1,895 5,522
56.4 75.0 -5.1 21.0 27.8 19.7 2.7 10.5 0.4 -6.7 -28.9 -6.5
3,305 56.7 3,158 -4.0 3,165 -16.3 5,454 72.6 4,767 5.1 6,316 27.8 5,298 27.7 6,849 115.9 6,029 46.3 6,157 0.2 4,415 -15.2 6,410 1.1
2015 1 2 3 4 5P 6P
6,774 6,681 7,796 7,708 7,760 9,488
-4.0 0.2 -2.0 -9.1 -5.3 -0.2
1,997 2,089 2,468 2,467 2,328 3,351
-13.7 -5.3 -6.0 -10.0 -10.0 -0.9
4,561 4,374 5,014 4,937 5,122 5,765
2.4 3.2 0.5 -9.6 -3.7 0.5
7,216 5,367 12,238 9,048 12,516 13,450
30.5 -3.3 150.0 22.9 83.1 45.5
1,297 1,133 2,136 2,586 2,440 4,155
-36.2 -49.4 31.6 36.5 22.0 54.9
5,882 78.0 4,115 30.3 9,882 215.4 6,406 17.4 9,973 109.2 8,940 41.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
-60.0 -46.3 -23.1 -29.2 -26.0 -41.9 -4.2 -21.3 -0.9 62.2 8.5 92.7
61
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period
Leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical Coincident index indicator of (2010=100) coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.5 101.7 101.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.3 103.5 103.8
101.0 100.7 100.3 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.2 99.0 98.7 98.4 98.3
103.5 103.5 104.0 104.0 104.9 105.6 106.2 106.7 106.8 107.2 107.3 107.7
101.7 101.4 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.0 101.6 101.6 101.2 101.2
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 105.7 106.2 106.6 106.7 107.8 108.3 108.4 108.1 108.5 109.3 110.1
98.5 99.2 99.1 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.3 98.9 98.2 98.1 98.4 98.7
107.7 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.3 109.7 110.5 110.4 110.8 110.9 111.5 112.1
100.8 101.3 101.0 101.0 100.6 100.7 100.9 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.2 100.3
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.7 113.8 114.5 115.1 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.1
98.5 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.3
112.4 112.9 113.0 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.1 116.8 117.2 117.8
100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 100.3
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
118.7 118.9 119.0 119.4 119.8 120.5 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.4 124.9 125.9
100.4 100.2 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.4 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.5
118.5 118.9 119.4 119.6 119.8 120.2 120.8 121.5 121.8 121.9 122.2 123.0
100.5 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.2 99.9 99.8 100.1
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
127.8 129.0 130.5 131.1 132.2 132.3 -
102.5 103.1 103.8 103.8 104.0 103.5 -
123.6 124.5 124.7 125.1 125.0 125.1 -
100.2 100.5 100.3 100.3 99.8 99.5 -
94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 -
90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
62
Statistical Appendices
9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)
Period
Current account
Goods
2012 2013 2014
50,835.0 79,883.6 89,220.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
554,103.2 536,559.0 528,611.3
-5,213.6 -7,927.4 -8,163.4
12,116.7 11,424.8 10,197.7
-5,474.1 -4,182.3 -5,501.8
144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6
142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7
-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0
2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9
-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7
14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0
147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9
133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9
-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7
1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2
-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4
15,185.9 24,240.4 22,565.7 27,228.1
17,745.2 26,428.1 21,676.0 26,838.3
152,688.6 159,385.4 153,482.3 155,742.6
134,943.4 132,957.3 131,806.3 128,904.3
-3,503.4 -1,838.7 -904.0 -1,917.3
1,905.8 1,330.9 3,143.5 3,817.5
-961.7 -1,679.9 -1,349.8 -1,510.4
2015P Ⅰ Ⅱ
23,454.5 28,940.3
25,258.2 34,930.1
135,480.6 143,510.7
110,222.4 108,580.6
-5,413.0 -4,013.8
4,830.5 -863.3
-1,221.2 -1,112.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,075.6 2,473.1 7,065.6 5,334.6 9,886.4 7,126.4 7,323.2 6,745.6 8,181.6 11,108.9 6,229.9 6,597.3
3,953.0 3,256.4 7,088.6 5,510.6 9,363.1 5,711.6 7,462.2 7,271.4 8,572.1 9,767.8 8,024.8 6,799.4
51,765.7 44,916.0 51,141.6 51,704.7 53,477.3 48,883.9 53,326.3 49,899.2 50,490.3 56,820.8 52,702.3 53,028.8
47,812.7 41,659.6 44,053.0 46,194.1 44,114.2 43,172.3 45,864.1 42,627.8 41,918.2 47,053.0 44,677.5 46,229.4
-1,556.6 -1,144.9 33.6 496.2 -28.7 180.4 -879.0 -869.3 -330.2 405.8 -2,088.9 -717.6
1,169.5 623.3 19.6 -482.0 721.6 1,420.9 1,032.7 665.9 648.0 1,335.7 674.8 1,225.7
-490.3 -261.7 -76.2 -190.2 -169.6 -186.5 -292.7 -322.4 -708.3 -400.4 -380.8 -710.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,323.7 4,537.5 7,324.7 7,163.1 9,119.2 7,958.1 7,881.7 7,235.1 7,448.9 8,883.2 11,322.1 7,022.8
4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,133.5 6,646.6 6,794.4 7,367.3 7,514.3 8,487.1 10,031.4 8,319.8
50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,383.0 50,281.0 53,811.7 48,920.1 50,750.5 51,970.8 50,063.0 53,708.8
46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,249.5 43,634.4 47,017.3 41,552.8 43,236.2 43,483.7 40,031.6 45,389.0
-1,873.7 -1,020.3 -609.4 -1,004.4 -297.7 -536.6 31.0 -694.3 -240.7 -212.6 -164.6 -1,540.1
1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1 2,225.5 1,488.8 1,048.0 606.7 967.6 1,667.5 1,182.4
-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.7 -377.4 -432.5 -485.9 -431.4 -358.9 -212.2 -939.3
2015P 1 2 3 4 5 6
6,583.0 6,442.2 10,429.3 8,135.7 8,618.1 12,186.5
6,687.0 7,321.2 11,250.0 12,558.0 9,156.2 13,215.9
45,398.8 40,595.3 49,486.5 50,376.1 43,835.5 49,299.1
38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,083.2
-2,384.4 -2,061.6 -967.0 -1,125.0 -397.6 -2,491.2
2,900.4 1,401.3 528.8 -2,837.5 293.6 1,680.6
-620.0 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8
Exports
Imports
49,406.0 80,568.6 92,687.6
603,509.2 617,127.6 621,298.9
-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1
1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
63
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of nonfinancial assets
Reserve assets
2012 2013 2014
-51,582.4 -80,104.6 -90,383.3
-21,136.2 -15,593.2 -20,659.5
6,747.8 -9,344.5 -33,605.3
2,627.8 4,410.3 3,704.9
-26,637.3 -43,281.1 -21,937.9
-41.7 -27.0 -9.0
-13,184.5 -16,296.1 -17,885.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2
-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9
14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1
-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,448.7 -19,645.6 -22,675.5 -26,334.8
-3,878.4 -3,397.8 -3,426.8 -4,890.2
-7,285.9 -9,776.5 9,375.4 -1,657.5
1,395.8 -513.6 1,656.3 1,871.8
2,880.2 -10,063.8 -23,611.4 -12,486.1
-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
-4,560.4 4,106.1 -6,669.0 -9,172.8
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-17177.8 -24,208.1 -22,481.5 -26,515.9
-3,657.7 -7,552.9 -3,908.6 -5,540.3
-13,596.7 -5,867.2 -4,762.4 -9,379.0
892.6 2,083.5 1,531.9 -803.1
6,207.4 -1,701.9 -9,510.4 -16,933.0
-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.2
-7,023.4 -11,169.6 -5,832.0 6,139.5
2015P Ⅰ Ⅱ
-24,799.8 -29,365.0
-5,385.9 -8,161.2
-7,838.4 -6,994.1
41.0 461.4
-4,506.4 -7,369.2
-23.1 -25.5
-7,110.1 -7,301.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,694.7 -1,707.1 -7,046.9 -2,435.7 -12,288.9 -4,921.0 -9,446.1 -6,236.3 -6,993.1 -10,139.4 -7,433.1 -8,762.3
-802.5 -909.3 -2,166.6 401.3 -2,175.6 -1,623.5 -796.8 -1,157.2 -1,472.8 -340.7 -2,243.9 -2,305.6
-5,964.7 2,149.9 -3,471.1 -2,060.8 -1,642.1 -6,073.6 1,785.8 1,584.1 6,005.5 4,942.8 -1,557.9 -5,042.4
579.6 651.0 165.2 -301.1 719.1 -931.6 431.4 210.0 1,014.9 805.3 466.9 599.6
4,123.7 -1,158.3 -85.2 -1,382.5 -8,189.7 -491.6 -8,821.6 -5,172.4 -9,617.4 -10,754.2 -1,248.6 -483.3
-8.0 -2.9 8.2 -1.6 -11.0 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
-630.8 -2,440.4 -1,489.2 907.4 -1,000.6 4,199.3 -2,044.9 -1,700.8 -2,923.3 -4,792.6 -2,849.6 -1,530.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -8,132.4 -9,836.9 -5,916.9 -7,802.4 -8,762.2 -6,801.5 -9,915.5 -9,798.9
529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8 -2,056.3 -1,011.5 -749.5 -2,147.6 -2,088.9 -2,098.2 -1,353.2
-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0 -4,218.5 -1,743.7 504.4 -3,523.1 -382.4 -2,835.6 -6,161.0
155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5 690.9 504.1 557.7 470.1 -570.7 -81.8 -150.6
1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 3,950.6 283.1 -338.1 -7,288.1 -1,884.2 -4,007.0 -7,797.4 -5,128.6
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -4.2
-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7 -826.9 -1,677.4 247.5 2,897.5 2,994.5
2015P 1 2 3 4 5 6
-8,240.4 -5,538.7 -11,020.7 -10,061.9 -8,810.9 -10,492.2
-1,001.5 -1,994.5 -2,389.9 -1,971.3 -1,202.7 -4,987.2
-3,623.7 -3,001.5 -1,213.2 -138.0 -358.3 -6,497.8
-76.2 27.5 89.7 301.9 403.7 -244.2
489.1 -371.2 -4,624.3 -4,851.0 -4,755.5 2,237.3
-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5
-4,028.1 -199.0 -2,883.0 -3,403.5 -2,898.1 -1,000.3
Period
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
64
Statistical Appendices
11. Prices (2010=100)
Period
Consumer Prices Commodities Services
All Items y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices All Items Commodities
Core
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
106.3 107.7 109.0
2.2 1.3 1.3
108.9 110.1 111.1
3.0 1.0 0.9
104.2 105.8 107.4
1.4 1.5 1.6
104.9 106.6 108.8
1.6 1.6 2.0
107.5 105.7 105.2
0.7 -1.6 -0.5
108.9 106.2 104.8
0.2 -2.5 -1.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4
107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0
4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6
103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8
2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5
3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2
107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8
3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4
3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.9
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6
109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8
0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7
110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7
-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5
108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0
101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8
-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6
99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3
-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8
Source: The Bank of Korea
65
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
12. Employment Period
Economically active persons (thousand)
All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Employed persons (thousand) Manufacturing SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment rate (%)
2012 2013 2014
25,501 25,873 26,536
1.6 1.5 2.6
24,681 25,066 25,599
1.8 1.6 2.1
4,105 4,184 4,330
0.3 1.9 3.5
19,033 19,347 19,805
2.4 1.6 2.4
3.2 3.1 3.5
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139
2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0
23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402
2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183
-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8
18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010
3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9
3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303
1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5
25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305
1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3
4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528
3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9
19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250
1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2
3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7
Source: Statistics Korea
66
Statistical Appendices
13. Financial indicators (period average)
Period
Yields(%) Corporate bonds Treasury bonds (3 years, AA-) (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Stock KOSPI(endperiod)
Call rate (1 day)
CDs (91 days)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5
2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0
1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16
Source: The Bank of Korea
67
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
14. Monetary indicators (billion won)
Period 2012 2013 2014
Reserve money y-o-y change (%)
M1
M2
y-o-y change (%)
Lf
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
82,131.1 91,379.4 103,331.5
9.2 11.3 13.1
441,963.6 484,062.9 536,733.4
3.8 9.5 10.9
1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3
5.2 4.8 6.6
2,379,518.7 2,543,299.4 2,721,747.4
7.8 6.9 7.0
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
81,635.4 81,655.3 79,068.0 80,641.8 80,547.7 81,804.0 81,555.7 82,369.1 82,958.7 85,078.6 82,956.5 85,302.7
11.0 8.3 8.3 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.1 8.9 6.4 10.6 8.3 9.6
439,352.9 437,193.9 440,075.4 437,445.3 438,795.3 441,611.0 441,760.6 439,573.2 440,034.3 444,477.8 445,463.9 457,778.9
2.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.4 4.0 3.5 5.5 5.3 5.8
1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4 1,773,172.9 1,777,114.7 1,784,220.5 1,796,981.5 1,807,289.2 1,817,134.9 1,819,290.1 1,822,420.9 1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7
4.8 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.5
2,292,213.5 2,302,065.8 2,341,626.9 2,349,723.2 2,357,701.0 2,377,071.3 2,393,737.7 2,405,239.9 2,415,263.5 2,424,000.4 2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9
6.5 7.2 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5
5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7
464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9
5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3
1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4
4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3
2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,873.9 2,619,029.5
7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4 105,354.1 107,117.5 106,667.9 110,175.6
14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.6
515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3 548,550.8 551,416.0 562,006.2 577,721.1
10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.4
1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2 2,037,600.8 2,051,149.8 2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8
5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.1
2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,370.7 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5 2,759,390.8 2,776,971.6 2,817,698.0 2,837,910.9
6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6
113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2
15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0
579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3
12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5
2,092,223.5 2,109,843.2 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,180,006.1
8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0
2,857,610.1 2,876,619.9 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,326.9
8.4 8.6 9.3 9.3 10.0 10.3
Source: The Bank of Korea
68
Statistical Appendices
15. Exchange rates (end-period)
Period
100/ \
US $/ \
Euro/ \
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
1,071.1 1,055.3 1,099.2
-7.1 -1.5 4.2
1,247.5 1,004.7 920.1
-16.0 -19.5 -8.4
1,416.3 1,456.3 1,336.5
-5.2 2.8 -8.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1
1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1
1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5
8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0
1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3
-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3
1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9
921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3
-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7
1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4
-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0
Source: The Bank of Korea
69
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • august 2015
Suncheon Bay Garden Suncheon Bay Garden, which was the venue for the International Garden Exposition in 2013, will be designated as Korea's first national garden this September. The garden consists of four zones - the arboretum, wetland center, world garden and wetland - in a 1.1 million square meter area.
Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.37 No.8 august 2015 eb.kdi.re.kr
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.37 No.8 august 2015
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues 2015 Tax Revision Bill Comprehensive Measures for Youth Employment
Economic News Briefing Government Works on Follow-ups to President’s Address to the Nation SMEs to Receive Support for Reducing Emissions Korea Grand Sale Starts Early to Boost Tourism Korea Grows 0.3% in Q2
Statistical Appendices
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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