201510

ISSN 2287-7266

ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

Republic of Korea

october 2015 eb.kdi.re.kr

conomic u l l e t i n

Vol.37 No.10 october 2015

ECONOMIC BULLETIN

(Republic of Korea)

For free subscriptions and enquiries, please contact: International Media Relations Division Ministry of Strategy and Finance Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro

october 2015

Sejong, 30109 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr

Featured Issue: President Park’s Official Visit to the US

Economic Information and Education Center

Korea and US Confirm Deeper Trade and Economic Relationship as well as Stronger Defense Alliance

Korea Development Institute

Economic News Briefing

263 Namsejong-ro

Korea Ranks 26th in Global Competitiveness Report Deputy Prime Minister Stresses WB’s Support for Regional Development Banks Korea-China-Japan Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting Held in Lima Financial Regulator Reveals Plans to Develop ETF Market

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Vol.37 No.10

Statistical Appendices

02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview

03

01. External economic situation

04

02. Private consumption

08

03. Facility investment

11

04. Construction investment

13

05. Exports and imports

15

06. Mining and manufacturing production

17

07. Service sector activity

19

08. Employment

21

09. Financial markets

25

9.1 Stock market

25

9.2 Exchange rate

26

9.3 Bond market

27

9.4 Money supply & money market

27

10. Balance of payments

29

11. Prices

31

11.1 Consumer prices

31

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

33

12. Real estate market

35

12.2 Land market

37

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

contents Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) An Il-Whan (MOSF) Editorial Board Park Joon-Kyu (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF)

35

12.1 Housing market

40

Vol.37 No.10 / 0ctober 2015

42 Featured Issue President Park’s Official Visit to the US

45 Economic News Briefing Korea Ranks 26th in Global Competitiveness Report Deputy Prime Minister Stresses WB’s Support for Regional Development Banks Deputy Prime Minister Meets with US and Iranian Counterparts Korea-China-Japan Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting Held in Lima Financial Regulator Reveals Plans to Develop ETF Market FDI Up 9.0% in Jan-Sep Period

49 Statistical Appendices

02

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Overview

01. External economic situation

02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

03

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

OVERVIEW The Korean economy has been steadily recovering from the second quarter slowdown, picking up on rebounding consumption from the MERS shock as well as improving production and investment.

Employment has stayed on a positive trajectory, and inflation has remained low due to falling oil prices.

The economy added 256,000 jobs year-on-year in August, growing at a slower pace compared with the previous month (326,000) due to a high base effect from last August when the index was positively influenced by the early Chuseok holiday. On a month-on-month basis, job growth decelerated from 122,000 to 99,000.

Consumer price inflation in September remained in the less than 1 percent range year-on-year at 0.6 percent as stable supplies pushed down prices, such as falling petroleum product prices. Core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products and is more related to demand, remained in the two percent range (2.1%).

Mining and manufacturing production rebounded in August from the previous month’s slowdown, up 0.4 percent month-on-month, despite the summer vacation in the automobile and shipbuilding industries, as the production of communications equipment, semiconductors and electronic parts surged following the release of new IT products.

In August service output and retail sales posted a complete recovery from the MERS shocks, up for the second consecutive month and rising 0.4 and 1.9 percent, respectively.

Facility investment edged down in August after surging for two consecutive months, down 0.4 percent monthon-month, while construction completed increased for the fourth month in a row, up 3.9 percent from the previous month, due to both building construction and civil engineering works being strong.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.3 points in August from the previous month, while the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index improved 0.1 points.

Exports continued to fall year-on-year in September partly due to temporary factors including low oil prices, but the index dropped at a slower pace compared with the previous month from 14.9 percent to 8.3 percent.

Market interest rates fell in September as the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged. Stock markets rose slightly and the Korean won depreciated against both the US dollar and Japanese yen.

Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase month-on-month in September, rising 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Consumption and other domestic demand growth accelerated backed by government efforts, such as the Korea Grand Sale, a nationwide shopping promotion event, and individual consumption tax cuts, but external uncertainties as to the Fed’s rate hikes and China’s economic slowdown are posing risks.

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

The government will continue to work on stimulating consumption, in particular by early implementing the supplementary budget and expanding shopping promotion, such as through the Korea Grand Sale and the Korean Black Friday, while accelerating the reform of the four areas of the public, education, labor and financial sectors.

The government will closely monitor internal and external economic developments as well as examine uncertainties and their possible impact on domestic financial markets, and will be prepared to make appropriate responses if necessary.

1. External economic situation The global economy has seen a gap between advanced and emerging economies, as the US and eurozone economies continue to recover while concerns go on about economic slowdown in China and commodity exporters.

Risks to the global economy remain including uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Fed’s rate hike, downward pressure on prices in the eurozone and a slow recovery in Japan.

US The US economy grew 3.9 percent in the second quarter (annualized q-o-q) rebounding from 0.6 percent growth in the previous quarter as the economy continued to improve mainly due to higher consumption.

Industrial production fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in August and the ISM Manufacturing Index for September dropped to 50.2 as the dollar gained strength and global demand slowed.

ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.5 (Jan 2015) → 52.9 (Feb) → 51.5 (Mar) → 51.5 (Apr) → 52.8 (May) → 53.5 (Jun) → 52.7 (Jul) → 51.1 (Aug) → 50.2 (Sep)

Retail sales grew 0.2 percent in August and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September rose to 103.0 as unemployment fell and the labor market improved, but the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell in September.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 98.1 (Jan 2015) → 95.4 (Feb) → 93.0 (Mar) → 95.9 (Apr) → 90.7 (May) → 96.1 (Jun) → 93.1 (Jul) → 91.9 (Aug) → 87.2 (Sep) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 103.8 (Jan 2015) → 98.8 (Feb) → 101.4 (Mar) → 94.3 (Apr) → 94.6 (May) → 99.8 (Jun) → 90.9 (Jul) → 101.5 (Aug) → 103.0 (Sep)

04

05

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012

2013

2014

Annual Annual Annual 1

Q1

Q2

2015 Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul

Aug

Real GDP

2.2

1.5

2.4

-0.9

4.6

4.3

2.1

0.6

3.9

-

-

-

- Personal consumption expenditure

1.5

1.7

2.7

1.3

3.8

3.5

4.3

1.8

3.6

-

-

-

- Nonresidential fixed investment - Residential fixed investment

9.0

3.0

6.2

8.3

4.4

9.0

0.7

1.6

4.1

-

-

-

13.5

9.5

1.8

-2.8

10.4

3.4

10.0

10.1

9.3

-

-

-

Industrial production

3.0

1.9

3.7

0.9

1.4

1.0

1.2

-0.1

-0.7

0.0

0.9

-0.4

Retail sales

4.9

3.9

3.8

0.6

2.4

0.7

0.5

-1.0

1.7

0.0

0.7

0.2 -4.8

Existing home sales

8.9

9.0

-3.0

-5.1

4.5

3.5

0.1

-1.7

6.5

3.0

1.8

Unemployment rate²

8.1

7.4

6.2

6.6

6.2

6.1

5.7

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.1

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2.1

1.5

1.6

1.4

2.1

1.8

1.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg

US GDP growth and industrial production 10

Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board

(%)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q)

Home prices continued to recover, but existing home sales in August declined 4.8 percent month-on-month, reaching 5,310,000 homes (annualized), due to a high base effect.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 4.4 (Dec 2014) → 4.4 (Jan 2015) → 4.9 (Feb) → 5.0 (Mar) → 4.9 (Apr) → 5.0 (May) → 4.9 (Jun) → 5.0 (Jul) Existing home sales (m-o-m, %) -4.1 (Nov 2014) → 2.4 (Dec) → -4.9 (Jan 2015) → 1.5 (Feb) → 6.5 (Mar) → -2.3 (Apr) → 4.5 (May) → 3.0 (Jun) → 1.8 (Jul) → -4.8 (Aug)

The unemployment rate for August, at 5.1 percent, was the lowest since April 2008 when it was 5.0 percent, meeting the Fed’s definition for full employment, but growth in the number of jobs added to nonfarm payrolls slowed.

06

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Nonfarm payroll increases (m-o-m, thousand) 329 (Dec 2014) → 201 (Jan 2015) → 266 (Feb) → 119 (Mar) → 187 (Apr) → 260 (May) → 245 (Jun) → 223 (Jul)

US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800

(thousands)

12

(%)

600 10 400 8

200 0

6 -200 4

-400 -600

2 -800 -1,000

0

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)

2014.1

2015.1

Unemployment rate (right)

China The Chinese economy continued to experience slow growth in August amid sluggish investment, decreasing exports and slumping industrial production, and the economic outlook remained uncertain as the manufacturing PMI failed to recover for a second consecutive month.

Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 49.8 (Jan 2015) → 49.9 (Feb) → 50.1 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr → 50.2 (May) → 50.2 (Jun) → 50.0 (Jul) → 49.7 (Aug) → 49.8 (Sep)

China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 18

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 70

(%)

(%)

16

60

14

50

12

40

10

30

8

20

6

10

4

0 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

GDP (y-o-y, left)

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)

07

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Real GDP Industrial production Fixed asset investment (accumulated) Retail sales Exports Consumer prices1 Producer prices1

2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4 7.7 7.7 7.7 10.0 9.7 10.0 20.6 19.6 19.6 14.3 13.1 13.5 8.3 8.6 7.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.4

Q1 7.4 8.7 17.6 12.0 -3.5 2.3 -2.0

2014 Q2 Q3 7.5 7.3 8.9 8.0 17.3 16.1 12.3 11.9 5.0 13.0 2.2 2.0 -1.5 -1.3

Q4 7.3 7.6 15.7 11.7 8.6 1.5 -2.7

Q1 7.0 6.4 13.5 10.6 4.7 1.2 -4.6

2015 Q2 Jul 7.0 6.3 6.0 11.4 11.2 10.2 10.5 -2.1 -8.3 1.4 1.6 -4.8 -5.4

Aug 6.1 10.9 10.8 -5.5 2.0 -5.9

1. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

Japan Industrial production fell for the second consecutive month and all other major economic indicators remained sluggish, while slow consumer price growth continued and the possibility grew for the Bank of Japan adopting an additional stimulus at the end of October.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent year-on-year in August for the first time in 2015.

The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the current level of quantitative easing at a monetary policy meeting on October 6-7.

(Percentage change from previous period)

Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4 1.8 1.6 -0.2 0.2 -0.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 -2.7 9.5 17.4 -0.0 0.4 1.4

Annual -0.1 2.1 1.7 4.8 2.7

Q1 1.1 2.3 3.8 6.6 1.5

2014 Q2 -1.9 -3.1 -7.2 0.1 3.6

Q3 -0.3 -1.3 3.9 3.2 3.3

Q4 0.3 0.8 1.0 9.1 2.6

Q1 1.1 1.6 -2.1 9.0 2.3

2015 Q2 -0.4 -1.4 0.2 6.7 0.5

Jul -0.8 1.4 7.6 0.2

Aug -0.5 0.0 3.1 0.2

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6

Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

(%)

(%)

4

25 20 15 10

2

5 0

0

-5 -2

-10 -15

-4

-20 -25

-6 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

08

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Eurozone The eurozone economy continued to recover backed by the ECB quantitative easing program and a weak euro, but risks remain including economic slowdown in emerging economies, in particular China, and downward pressure on prices.

Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 51.0 (Jan 2015) → 51.0 (Feb) → 52.2 (Mar) → 52.0 (Apr) → 52.2 (May) → 52.5 (Jun) → 52.4 (Jul) → 52.3 (Aug) → 52.0 (Sep) (Percentage change from previous period)

2012 2013 Annual Annual Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015 Jun

Jul

Aug

Real GDP

-0.8

-0.3

0.2

0.3

0.9

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.4

-

-

-

Industrial production

-2.4

-0.7

0.0

0.6

0.8

0.1

0.1

-0.2

0.5

1.0

-0.2

-0.3

0.6

-

Retail sales

-1.7

-0.8

0.6

-0.3

1.3

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.7

0.9

0.4

0.6

0.0

-

Exports (y-o-y)

7.7

1.1

0.3

1.0

2.3

1.0

0.6

3.0

4.5

5.1

8.0

12.4

6.6

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2.5

1.4

1.3

0.8

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

-0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg

Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3

Source: Eurostat

(%)

(%)

10 8

2

6 4

1

2 0

0

-2 -1

-4 -6

-2

-8 -10

-3 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

2. Private consumption Private consumption in the second quarter of 2015 (preliminary GDP) fell 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 1.7 percent compared to a year ago.

09

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

(Percentage change from previous period)

Annual

Q1

2013 Q2

1.9

-0.1

0.5

1.1

0.6

1.8

0.4

-0.4

0.8

0.5

0.6

-0.2

-

1.6

1.9

1.9

2.2

-

2.6

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

Private consumption² (y-o-y)

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4¹

20151 Q1¹ Q2¹

1

Q3

Q4

Annual

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Private consumption 12

Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

(%)

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Private consumption (q-o-q)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Retail sales grew 1.9 percent month-on-month in August as durable goods (up 2.8%), such as household appliances, semi-durable goods (up 4.4%), such as clothing, and nondurable goods (up 0.3%), such as cosmetics, all increased. The index rose 1.8 percent compared with the same period of the previous year.

Retail sales 20

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(%)

15

10

5

0

-5

-10 2004.1

2005.1

Retail sales (m-o-m)

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Retail sales (y-o-y)

10

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

(Percentage change from previous period)

Annual

2013 Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015 Jul¹

Aug¹

Retail sales

-

0.8

0.4

-

0.2

-0.2

1.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2.0

1.9

(y-o-y)

0.7

0.5

1.1

1.7

2.4

0.8

1.5

1.9

1.6

2.9

2.1

1.8

- Durable goods²

0.3

-0.3

0.2

5.1

3.8

-0.2

1.8

1.3

5.2

-0.4

0.8

2.8

· Automobiles

2.1

2.1

-2.1

16.6

9.8

5.3

1.2

6.3

3.9

3.9

-3.7

0.6

- Semi-durable goods³

2.1

0.7

-0.4

-0.6

-1.4

-1.1

4.8

-1.8

-3.5

-0.1

7.1

4.4

- Nondurable goods4

0.4

1.5

0.8

0.8

-0.9

0.2

-0.7

1.0

-0.5

1.5

0.8

0.3

1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.

3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc.

Source: Statistics Korea

Retail sales by type 50

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Durable goods

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Nondurable goods

Semi-durable goods

Retail sales growth accelerated in September led by the sales of domestic cars as well as department store and large discount store sales. Credit card use and gasoline sales continued to improve year-on-year. (y-o-y, %)

2015 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Credit card use

10.0

5.7

15.3

7.1

8.6

14.5

10.3

14.8

Department store sales

11.4

-2.8

5.4

7.8

-6.0

5.7

1.2

14.1

Large discount store sales

34.8

-3.2

4.1

4.4

-4.4

2.5

-4.8

10.0

Domestic sales of gasoline

12.1

8.6

9.6

3.3

1.0

0.7

10.8

6.2

Domestic sales of cars

-3.8

5.5

2.8

-0.2

9.4

3.5

14.9

15.5

Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association

11

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) rose 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 5.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2015.

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

Annual -0.8 -2.3 3.1

Facility investment² (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment

2013 Q3 3.5 2.3 6.3 -3.5

Q4 4.2 11.6 2.3 9.1

Annual 5.8 5.0 7.7

2014 Q2 1.3 7.7 0.4 3.6

Q1 -1.4 7.2 -3.4 3.7

2015 Q3 0.2 4.2 2.0 -3.8

Q4 4.0 4.2 5.6 0.4

Q1¹ 0.2 5.8 -0.7 2.4

Q2¹ 0.5 5.0 -3.9 10.6

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Facility investment 40

Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

(%)

30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

Facility investment (q-o-q)

Facility investment (y-o-y)

The facility investment index in August fell 0.4 percent month-on-month due to a decline in machinery investment despite an increase in transportation equipment investment. The index rose 17.1 percent year-on-year.

Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50

(y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

Transportation equipment

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Machinery

12

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

Facility investment index (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment

2013 Annual Annual -0.8 5.2 -2.1 3.9 2.8 8.8

Q1 -4.0 7.5 -6.1 1.6

2014 Q2 1.7 6.7 0.9 3.6

2015 Q3 -0.9 1.5 -0.8 -1.4

Q4 8.6 5.4 11.7 1.5

Q1 -1.6 8.4 -1.3 -2.4

Q21 -1.5 5.2 -5.8 10.2

Jul1 1.3 7.0 1.3 0.8

Aug1 -0.4 17.1 -1.2 1.8

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Facility investment is expected to rise backed by an increase in transport equipment imports including aircrafts and vessels, as well as recovering consumption and production.

Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 77 (Jan 2015) → 73 (Feb) → 82 (Mar) → 80 (Apr) → 82 (May) → 76 (Jun) → 67 (Jul) → 70 (Aug) → 71 (Sep) → 70 (Oct) Aircraft and vessel imports (US $ million, Korea Customs Service) 860 (May 2015) → 720 (Jun) → 710 (Jul) → 510 (Aug) → 8501 (Sep) 1. Preliminary

Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10

(trillion won)

(%)

9

70 60 50 40

8

30

7

20 10

6

0

5

-10 -20

4

-30

3

-40 -50

2 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Machinery orders (left)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Machinery imports (right)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Public - Private Machinery imports Average manufacturing operation ratio Facility investment adjustment pressure²

2013 Annual 6.6 20.5 5.1 1.1 76.5 -0.9

Annual 14.8 94.2 4.8 5.8 76.1 -1.5

Q1 18.5 -2.0 184.6 4.7 2.5 77.1 -0.7

2014 Q2 4.0 -11.3 -45.0 9.1 11.9 76.1 -1.1

Q3 49.4 45.2 418.5 7.7 1.7 76.0 -0.5

Q4 -6.3 -26.0 -27.6 -2.0 7.0 75.1 -3.5

1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

Q1 -2.6 6.2 -66.9 12.0 8.4 74.4 -2.5

2015 Q2¹ Jul¹ 15.7 13.4 1.4 -3.1 61.7 50.2 13.2 11.5 -1.1 -2.3 74.2 74.7 -2.7 -4.2

Aug¹ -59.6 -2.6 -93.6 -3.9 -11.1 74.3 -0.3

13

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

4. Construction investment Construction investment in the second quarter of 2015 (preliminary GDP) rose 1.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 1.6 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

Annual

2013 Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

2015

Construction investment²

5.5

-0.8

-4.8

1.0

5.3

0.5

0.9

-7.8

7.4

1.6

(y-o-y)

-

7.4

3.5

-

4.1

0.2

2.3

-1.5

0.6

1.6

Q2¹

- Building construction

11.2

0.2

-3.3

4.4

3.2

3.1

2.4

-7.3

4.5

4.6

- Civil engineering works

-2.5

-2.5

-7.2

-4.4

8.9

-3.8

-1.8

-8.8

12.7

-3.6

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Construction investment 15

Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

(%)

10

5

0

-5

-10 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Construction investment (q-o-q)

Construction investment (y-o-y)

The value of construction completed (constant) in August rose 3.9 percent month-on-month as both building construction and civil engineering works increased. The index rose 4.5 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013 Annual Annual Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works 1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2015 Jul¹ Q21

Aug¹

10.2

-0.8

1.0

-0.4

-2.7

-3.9

4.8

-2.7

0.3

3.9

-

-

6.6

0.1

-1.9

-5.9

-2.0

-3.9

0.3

4.5

15.1 4.4

7.8 -12.3

4.8 -4.6

2.0 -4.1

-3.8 -0.8

-3.7 -4.2

5.0 4.5

-1.5 -4.7

6.1 -9.7

0.1 11.5

14

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40

(y-o-y, %)

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Residential buildings

Building construction

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Civil engineering works

Construction investment is projected to increase due to a decline in unsold houses and a continuous rise in building permits.

Unsold houses (thousand, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 40 (Dec 2014) → 37 (Jan 2015) → 34 (Feb) → 29 (Mar) → 28 (Apr) → 28 (May) → 34 (Jun) → 33 (Jul) → 32 (Aug) Domestic shipments of cement (million ton) 4.33 (May 2015) → 4.60 (Jun) → 4.08 (Jul) → 3.97 (Aug) → 4.03 (Sep)

Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300

(y-o-y, %)

250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2004.1

2005.1

Construction orders

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Building permit area

15

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permits²

2013 Annual Annual -12.9 15.3 -10.2 24.5 -18.2 -4.4 -7.3

11.2

Q1 15.5 -5.1 11.2 24.0

2014 Q2 25.4 12.4 45.6 -11.5

Q3 42.8 22.0 61.8 -6.2

Q4 -7.5 -29.0 -5.0 -13.1

Q1 55.4 50.9 87.7 -1.5

2015 Jul1 Q21 50.0 23.5 13.4 -4.2 49.9 27.1 50.0 9.4

Aug1 -3.7 12.2 -7.1 22.7

18.4

21.6

14.7

-4.6

11.0

25.1

25.2

88.2

1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

5. Exports and imports Exports in September declined 8.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $43.51 billion.

Exports continued to decrease due to falling oil prices, but at a slower pace compared with the previous month, down from 14.9 percent to 8.3 percent, helped by rising shipments to the EU and strong mobile phone and semiconductor exports, as well as more days worked (0.5 days).

Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 47.8 (Aug 2015) → 45.8 (Sep 2015)

Exports declined in most items except mobile phones and semiconductors. By region, shipments to all regions fell excluding the EU. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 40.9 (mobile phones), 1.4 (semiconductors), -1.5 (automobiles), -20.4 (vessels), -21.6 (steel), -25.0 (petrochemicals), -35.3 (petroleum products) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 19.7 (EU), -3.7 (US), -5.0 (China), -11.6 (ASEAN countries), -13.1 (Middle East), -24.3 (Japan), -33.9 (Latin America)

Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, rose to US $2.02 billion in September, the highest since May. Average daily export growth (US $ billion) 1.92 (Jan 2015) → 2.18 (Feb) → 1.95 (Mar) → 1.93 (Apr) → 2.06 (May) → 1.98 (Jun) → 1.83 (Jul) → 1.78 (Aug) → 2.02 (Sep) (US $ billion)

Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

2013 2014 Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 559.63 572.66 137.53 145.67 141.76 147.70 2.1 2.3 1.6 3.2 3.6 0.9 2.05 2.11 2.07 2.19 2.07 2.13

2015 Sep Q1 Q2 Q3 47.45 133.44 135.14 128.49 6.3 -3.0 -7.2 -9.4 2.26 2.01 1.99 1.88

Aug 39.24 -14.9 1.78

Sep1 43.51 -8.3 2.02

16

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Exports by item 160 140

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

(y-o-y, %)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

Export growth rate

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Semiconductors

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Automobiles

Steel

Imports in September fell 21.8 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $34.56 billion.

Commodity imports fell further amid declining oil and commodity prices. Capital goods imports stayed unchanged, and consumer goods imports fell.

Import growth by category (Aug → Sep, y-o-y, %) -34.3 → -36.2 (commodities), 9.7 → 0.0 (capital goods), 3.0 → -5.3 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)

2013

2014

Annual Annual Imports

Q1

Q2

2015 Q3

Q4

Sep

515.59 525.51 132.37 130.96 132.84 129.35

Q1

Q2

Q3

44.18 111.84 110.54 108.37

Aug

Sep1

34.97

34.56

(y-o-y, %)

-0.8

1.9

2.0

3.3

5.4

-2.8

7.6

-15.5

-15.6

-18.4

-18.3

-21.8

Average daily imports

1.89

1.94

1.99

1.97

1.94

1.86

2.01

1.68

1.63

1.58

1.59

1.61

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Imports by item 100

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

(y-o-y, %)

80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1

2005.1

Import growth rate

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Commodities

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Capital goods

17

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

Exports and imports

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

60 (US $ billion) 50

40

30

20

10

0

-10 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Trade balance

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Exports

Imports

The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $8.94 billion in September, staying in the black for the 44th consecutive month, and the surplus increased compared with the previous month.

(US $ billion)

2013

2014

Annual Annual Trade balance

44.05

47.15

2015

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep1

5.17

14.72

8.92

18.35

3.26

21.60

24.60

20.12

4.27

8.94

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.4 percent month-on-month in August backed by strong semiconductors, communications equipment and electronic parts, despite decreases in automobiles and other transportation equipment. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index increased 0.3 percent.

Compared to the previous month, production of semiconductors (up 11.6%), communications equipment (up 31.1%) and electronic parts (up 5.8%) rose, while automobiles (down 9.1%), other transportation equipment (down 4.2%) and processed metals (down 2.8%) fell.

Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 16.6%), automobiles (up 5.4%) and refined petroleum (up 6.6%) rose, while processed metals (down 8.0%), electronic parts (down 6.0%) and computers (down 32.2%) declined.

18

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50

(%)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Industrial production (m-o-m)

2015.1

Industrial production (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013 Annual Annual

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015 Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

-0.3

-0.6

0.1

-0.9

-0.1

-0.9

2.4

-0.3

0.4

Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-

(y-o-y)

0.7

0.0

0.7

0.5

1.2

-1.9

-0.9

-1.5

1.4

-3.2

0.3

Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

-1.0

0.0

-1.0

2.4

-0.3

0.4

Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity²

0.7

0.1

0.7

0.4

1.2

-1.9

-1.0

-1.4

1.5

-3.5

0.2

0.7

0.0

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.6

-0.7

1.1

0.6

0.3

- Domestic consumption

-0.8

0.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.9

-0.8

0.5

0.5

0.3

1.0

-0.9

- Exports

2.6

-0.4

-0.1

-0.3

0.1

1.1

-2.0

-2.1

2.0

0.2

1.6

Inventory³

4.4

-1.8

-0.3

0.6

0.9

-2.2

3.5

3.3

2.5

0.6

0.1

Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)

76.5

76.1

77.1

76.1

76.0

75.1

74.4

74.2

75.2

74.7

74.3

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

0.7

0.5

1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period

The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 128.4 percent as inventories rose 0.1 percent and shipments increased 0.3 percent.

Inventories of semiconductors (up 9.1%), electrical equipment (up 4.3%) and electronic parts (up 2.1 %) rose, while primary metals (down 2.8%), chemical products (down 1.5%) and refined petroleum (down 2.3%) declined.

Shipments of communications equipment (up 29.1%), semiconductors (up 7.3%) and electronic parts (up 6.7%) rose, while automobiles (down 8.5%), processed metals (down 3.9%) and other transportation equipment (down 3.8%) fell.

The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 0.4 percentage points month-on-month to 74.3 percent.

19

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

Shipment and inventory 10 8

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(m-o-m, %)

6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Shipment growth

Inventory growth

Average manufacturing operation ratio 100

2015.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(%)

90

80

70

60

50 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Mining and manufacturing production is expected to continue to improve in September as consumption has been recovering and the release of new cars and IT products has positively affected the index. However, strikes in the automobile and shipbuilding industries may offset the positive factors.

7. Service sector activity Service output in August rose 0.4 percent month-on-month, as wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants and entertainment, cultural & sports services continued to recover from the aftermath of the MERS outbreak.

Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output rose 2.1 percent.

Wholesale & retail (up 0.5%, m-o-m), hotels & restaurants (up 2.3%, m-o-m), entertainment, cultural & sports services (up 3.2%, m-o-m), and transportation services (up 6.0%, m-o-m) continued to rise.

20

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Financial & insurance services (down 3.2%, m-o-m) fell for the first time in three months, while real estate & renting (down 0.7%, m-o-m) declined for the second consecutive month.

Service sector activity 15

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(%)

10

5

0

-5

-10 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Service sector activity (m-o-m)

2014.1

2015.1

Service sector activity (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013 Weight Annual Q4 Service activity index - Wholesale & retail

Annual

2014 Q1 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

0.7

2015 Q2 Jul1 Aug1

100.0

1.5

0.8

2.2

0.1

0.9

1.0

0.5 -0.1

1.7

0.4

21.6

0.1

0.8

-0.2 -0.4 -0.5

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.0

1.7

0.5

0.6

2.6

0.1 -3.2

1.5

6.0

2.6 -1.2 -0.5 -3.3

7.0

2.3

- Transportation services

8.5

1.0 -0.3

1.7

0.8

- Hotels & restaurants

7.2

0.5

0.9

1.2

0.2 -1.5

- Publishing & communications services

8.4

2.2

3.0

1.8 -1.2

0.9 -0.2

0.1 -2.7 -0.6

3.9

1.1

14.7

0.5

0.5

5.2

2.5

1.2

2.1

2.9

2.8

-3.2

- Real estate & renting

5.3

2.5

2.7

6.2

0.2

4.4

0.0

3.6 -2.1

7.3 -0.6

-0.7

- Professional, scientific & technical services

5.6

3.3

0.4

2.3

0.1

2.6 -1.1

2.0 -2.9 -0.3 -4.1

-1.6

- Business services

3.3

2.1

0.4

2.4

1.5 -0.6

0.3

1.0

1.9

1.0

-0.4

- Education services

10.9

0.8

0.3

1.3

1.6 -1.9

1.1

0.0

0.8 -0.8 -0.2

1.3

- Healthcare & social welfare services

7.5

5.2

1.7

6.3

1.4

1.4

2.7

2.1 -0.9

0.7

1.1

- Entertainment, cultural & sports services

2.9

-0.7 -0.4

-1.1

0.0 -4.7

6.1 -2.1

2.6 -4.2

6.7

3.2

- Membership organizations & personal services

3.6

6.1 -1.0

-0.6

1.1 -1.0

0.5 -3.8

1.8

2.1

3.3

-0.5

- Sewerage & waste management

0.6

-0.4

1.0

0.2 -1.4

1.6

1.8

3.2

3.3

0.9

- Financial & insurance services

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

1.2

0.7

1.0

1.1

2.7

1.9

0.5

21

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

August 2015 service output by business 14

(y-o-y, %)

12

Real estate & renting

10 8 6 4 0

Total index

-2

Transportation services

-4

Professional, scientific & technical services

Publishing & communications services

Wholesale & retail

2

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

-6 -8

Entertainment, cultural & sports services

Education services

Business services

Financial & insurance services

Hotels & restaurants

Sewerage & waste management

Health & social welfare services

Membership organizations & personal services

-10 -12

The service output outlook for September is mixed as there have been both positive and negative factors, such as the individual consumption tax rate cut and the Chuseok sales rush as positive factors, and a drop in stock transactions as negative factors.

Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 7.2 (Jan 2015) → 7.5 (Feb) → 8.1 (Mar) → 10.9 (Apr) → 9.8 (May) → 10.1 (Jun) → 11.2 (Jul) → 8.9 (Aug) → 8.1 (Sep)

8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in August increased by 256,000 from a year earlier to 26,140,000 and the employment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 65.9 percent.

By industry, services and manufacturing continued to lead employment growth.

By employment status, permanent workers continued to lead employment growth, while temporary and daily workers increased at a faster pace and self-employed workers decreased.

Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,000

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(thousands)

(millions)

800

27 26

600 25 400 24 200 23

0

22

-200 -400

21

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Employment growth (y-o-y, left)

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)

22

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64

(%)

63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Original data

2015.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

Employment by industry

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%)

100

80 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4 70.8 70.2 70.0 69.9 69.9 70.2 60

40 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 20 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 0 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 2013.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2015.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Services

Construction

Manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%) 100 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6

80

22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.7 6.2 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.9

60

19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.5

40

20

46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.8 47.9 48.0 48.5

0 2013.1 2

3

4

5

Unpaid family workers

6

7

8

9

10

11 12 2014.1 2

Self-employed workers

3

4

5

Daily workers

6

7

8

9

10

11 12 2015.1 2

Temporary workers

3

4

5

6

7

8

Permanent workers

23

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Number of employed (millions)

2014 Q2 Q3

Q4

Aug

2015 Q2 Jul

Q1

Aug

24.24 24.68 25.07 25.35 25.60 24.91 25.79 25.93 25.77 25.89 25.27 26.10 26.31 26.14

Employment rate (%)

59.1 59.4 59.5 60.0 60.2 58.8 60.8 60.9 60.4 60.8 59.0 60.7 61.1 60.7

(Seasonally adjusted)

59.1 59.4 59.5 59.9 60.2 60.4 59.9 60.3 60.3 60.5 60.5 59.9 60.1 60.3

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

415

437

386

541

533

729

464

517

422

594

354

308

326

256

(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)

440

451

394

556

601

717

518

638

531

719

441

435

418

371

- Manufacturing

63

14

79

49

146

123

136

194

129

219

139

147

170

156

- Construction

-2

22

-19

-9

42

27

12

57

72

64

72

44

25

10

- Services

386

416

318

507

424

570

387

403

336

453

222

235

212

194

- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

-25

-14

-8

-15

-68

12

- Wage workers

427

315

483

604

548

· Permanent workers

575

436

615

637

· Temporary workers

-78

-2

-96

· Daily workers

-70 -120 -11

-54 -121 -109 -125

-87 -127

-91 -115

711

485

519

476

536

442

422

478

536

443

606

478

333

355

323

355

332

462

510

2

140

74

118

226

141

242

82

3

-31

2

-37

-35

-35

31 -111

-40

-20

-28

4

87

47

24

121

-97

-63

-15

19

-22

-3

-54

57

-88 -114 -151 -279

1

124

-67

-54

1

-7

-14

19

7

57

-49

-37

-76 -183

- Male

238

234

186

262

266

373

228

268

196

294

141

145

118

97

- Female

177

203

200

279

267

357

236

249

226

300

213

163

208

160

- 15 to 29

-35

-36

-50

46

77

97

53

102

56

147

32

90

22

36

- 30 to 39

-47

-31

-21

-42

-21

-6

-42

-7

-29

-5

-1

-56

-53

-60

- 40 to 49

57

11

22

53

38

99

34

15

4

19

-47

-15

4

-17

- 50 to 59

291

270

254

285

239

323

227

215

190

235

177

138

180

121

- 60 or more

149

222

181

200

200

218

192

192

201

199

192

150

173

177

- Nonwage workers · Self-employed workers

Source: Statistics Korea

Unemployment rate 6

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%)

5

4

3

2 2004.1

2005.1

Original data

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

24

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

The number of unemployed persons in August increased by 33,000 year-on-year to 923,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 3.4 percent. The unemployment rate declined among young adults and those in their 30s, but rose in all other age groups.

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

2014 Q2 Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

Q2

2015 Jul

Aug

Number of unemployed (thousands)

855

820

807

733

Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

-65

-35

-13

- Male

-48

-26

-6

- Female

-17

-9

-7

18

80

84 103

70

63

66

32

23

16

19

Unemployment rate (%)

3.4

3.2

3.1

2.8

3.5

4.0

3.3

3.2

3.3

4.1

3.8

3.7

3.4

937 1,031 977

884

854

890 1,089 1,042

11

137

107

121

107

58

-7

49

37

59

41

25

125 165 40

62 3.7

998

923

65

87

33

42

71

14

(Seasonally adjusted)

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.6

-15 to 29

7.6

7.5

8.0

7.9

9.0

9.8

9.4

8.6

8.3

8.4

10.3

9.9

9.4

8.0

- 30 to 39

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.6

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.0

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

2.9

3.0

- 40 to 49

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

- 50 to 59 - 60 or more

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.5

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

1.8

1.4

2.3

4.4

1.9

1.5

1.6

1.6

4.1

2.2

2.3

1.9

Source: Statistics Korea

The economically inactive population in August was up 225,000 from a year earlier to 16,020,000, while the labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 62.8 percent.

The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 111,000, y-o-y) decreased, while those due to rest (up 142,000, y-o-y) and childcare (up 12,000, y-o-y) increased.

Labor force participation rate 65

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%)

64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2004.1

2005.1

Original data

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

25

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Economically inactive population (millions)

2014 Q2 Q3

Q4

Aug

2015 Q2 Jul

Q1

Aug

15.95 16.08 16.22 16.17 15.98 16.40 15.69 15.76 16.07 15.80 16.47 15.84 15.75 16.02

Labor force participation rate (%) 61.1 61.3 61.5 61.7 62.4 61.3 63.1 63.0 62.4 62.9 61.5 63.2 63.4 62.8 (Seasonally adjusted)

61.1 61.3 61.5 61.8 62.4 62.6 62.2 62.5 62.4 62.6 62.8 62.3 62.5 62.6

Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)

112

- Childcare - Housework

128

-5

-2

101

123

141 1

-91 -246 -433 -226 -222 -101 -298 -14

-39

-29

72

150

114

225

-57

-41

-31

-38

41

50

22

12

-3 -112 -131 -230 -127

-99

-67 -140

-91

-41

-76

16

- Education

-51

-12

77

-44

-81

-76

-68 -109

-72 -141 -141 -213 -137 -111

- Old age - Rest

-45

148

54

21

93

81

113

91

89

80

68

95

100

102

182

-53

-7

21

-92 -197

-90

-65

-15

-61

154

151

92

142

Source: Statistics Korea

9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market Amid persistent uncertainty over the US interest rate hike, the KOSPI rose 1.1 percent in September, from 1,942 points to 1,963 points, due to rising Asian stock prices. The KOSPI, which had stayed flat ahead of the FOMC meeting, rose as the US left interest rates unchanged and Asian stock markets stabilized.

The KOSDAQ fell 1.3 percent from 687 points to 679 points due to external uncertainties, such as concerns over a possible rate hike in the US and economic slowdown in China and other emerging economies.

Stock prices 2,200

(monthly average)

2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1

KOSPI

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

KOSDAQ

26

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

(Closing rate)

Aug 2015

KOSPI Sep 2015

Change1

Stock price index (points)

1,941.5

1,962.8

Market capitalization (trillion won)

1,212.7

Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)

Aug 2015

KOSDAQ Sep 2015

Change1

21.3 (1.1%)

687.1

678.5

-8.6 (-1.3%)

1,230.6

17.9 (1.5%)

191.1

190.6

-0.5 (-0.3%)

5.8

4.9

-0.9 (-15.5%)

3.2

3.2

-0.0 (-0.0%)

31.7

32.1

0.4 (1.3%)

10.6

10.1

0.5 (4.7%)

1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange

9.2 Exchange rate Despite the presence of factors supporting the won’s appreciation, such as S&P’s decision to raise Korea’s credit rating and the US leaving interest rates unchanged, the dollar-won exchange rate in September rose slightly to 1,185.3 won from 1,182.5 won at the end of August, as uncertainties over the US interest rate hike and concerns over slowing emerging economies including China raised demand for safe-haven assets.

The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose 12 won from 976.2 won in August to 988.2 won in September, as the value of the yen rose due to increased demand for safe-haven assets.

(Closing rate)

2009 Dec

2010 Dec

2011 Dec

2012 Dec

2013 Dec

2014 Dec

Aug

2015 Sep

Change1

Dollar-Won

1,164.5

1,134.8

1,151.8

1,070.6

1,055.4

1,099.3

1,182.5

1,185.3

-0.2

100 Yen-Won

1,264.5

1,393.6

1,481.2

1,238.3

1,002.3

913.0

976.2

988.2

-1.2

1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.

Foreign exchange rates 1,800

(month-end, \)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600 2004.1

2005.1

Dollar-Won

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

100 Yen-Won

27

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 1.74 percent in August to 1.57 percent in September. Treasury bond yields fell as economic slowdown concerns and the US Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged led to increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Interest rates 10

Source: The Bank of Korea

(monthly average, yearly, %)

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Overnight call rate (daily)

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

3-yr Treasury bond yield

2015.1

3-yr corporate bond yield

(Closing rate, %)

Call rate (1 day) CD (91 days) Treasury bonds (3 yrs) Corporate bonds (3 yrs) Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

2009 Dec 2.01 2.88 4.44 5.56 4.98

2010 Dec 2.51 2.80 3.38 4.27 4.08

2011 Dec 3.29 3.55 3.34 4.21 3.46

2012 Dec 2.77 2.89 2.82 3.29 2.97

2013 Dec 2.52 2.66 2.86 3.29 3.23

2014 Dec 2.03 2.13 2.10 2.43 2.28

2015 Jul 1.50 1.64 1.77 2.01 2.03

Aug 1.52 1.63 1.74 1.99 1.93

Sep 1.49 1.59 1.57 1.89 1.72

Change1 -3 -4 -17 -10 -21

1. Basis point, changes from the previous month

9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in July rose 9.3 percent from a year earlier. Private sector credit rose, led by banks, and money supply from the government sector also increased due to fiscal frontloading.

(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

M1² M2 Lf ³

2009 Annual 16.3 10.3 7.9

2010 Annual 11.8 8.7 8.2

2011 Annual 6.6 4.2 5.3

2012 Annual 3.8 5.2 7.8

2013 Annual 9.5 4.8 6.9

1. Balance at end July 2015, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)

2014 Annual 10.9 6.6 7.0

2015 May 18.9 9.3 10.3

Jun 18.5 9.0 10.5

Jul 21.0 9.3 10.6

Jul1 646.0 2,200.5 3,013.5

28

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40 (y-o-y, monthly average balance, %) 30

20

10

0

-10 -20 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Reserve money

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

M1

2015.1

Lf

Bank deposits rose in August, led by instant access deposits (-6.1 trillion won → 12.4 trillion won), due to inflows of corporate and local government funds.

Asset management company (AMC) deposit growth decelerated, as short-term funds flowed out of money market funds (MMF) (9.9 trillion won → -3.8 trillion won).

Deposits in financial institutions 60

Source: The Bank of Korea

(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)

Bank deposits AMC deposits 1. Balance at end August 2015

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Dec 54.8 36.9 58.9 37.0 41.0 115.4 52.0 -27.6 -16.7 -16.6 18.8 17.7 47.0 -8.7

2015 Jun 19.9 4.9

Jul 0.6 13.9

Aug 14.4 1.7

Aug1 1,338.6 431.5

29

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in August posted a surplus of US $8.46 billion, staying in the black for 42 consecutive months and the total surplus reaching US $70.07 billion this year.

The goods account surplus declined to US $8.97 billion in August from US $10.05 billion in the previous month, as exports fell due to delayed drillship deliveries, the Tianjin explosions and fewer days worked.

Goods exports (US $ billion) 47.38 (Jul 2015) → 43.18 (Aug 2015) Goods imports (US $ billion) 37.33 (Jul 2015) → 34.21 (Aug 2015) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) -14.9 (total), 13.1 (mobile phones), 4.0 (semiconductors), -9.1 (automobiles), -19.8 (steel), -41.4 (oil), -26.7 (chemicals) Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -18.3 (total), -34.3 (commodities), 9.7 (capital goods), 3.0 (consumer goods)

Current account balance 15

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

(US $ billion)

10

5

0

-5 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

Goods account

2009.1

2010.1

Services account

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Current account

The services account deficit declined from US $1.92 billion to US $1.34 billion, as the travel account recovered from the aftermath of the MERS outbreak.

Services account (US $ billion, Jul → Aug) -0.51 → -0.38 (manufacturing), -0.18 → 0.11 (transportation), -1.45 → -1.06 (travel), 0.92 → 0.71 (construction), 0.02 → 0.05 (intellectual property rights), -0.60 → -0.92 (other businesses)

30

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Travel balance

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

4 (US $ billion) 3

2

1

-1

-2 -3 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Travel balance

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Travel revenue

Travel payment

The primary income account surplus fell from US $1.28 billion to US $0.91 billion due to a decline in dividend and interest income. The secondary income account deficit remained unchanged at US $0.10 billion.

(US $ billion)

2013 Annual Annual

2014

2015

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

Q2

Jul

Aug1

7.24

23.45

28.86

9.30

8.46

Current account

81.15

89.22

15.19

24.24

22.57

27.23

- Goods balance

82.78

92.69

17.75

26.43

21.68

26.84

7.37

25.26

34.86

10.05

8.97

- Services balance

-6.50

-8.16

-3.50

-1.84

-0.90

-1.92

-0.69

-5.41

-4.02

-1.92

-1.34

- Primary income balance - Secondary income balance

9.06

10.20

1.91

1.33

3.14

3.82

1.05

4.83

-0.86

1.28

0.91

-4.19

-5.50

-0.96

-1.68

-1.35

-1.51

-0.49

-1.22

-1.11

-0.10

-0.10

1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in August posted a net outflow of US $9.12 billion.

Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion) -8.25 (Jan 2015) → -5.54 (Feb) → -11.03 (Mar) → -10.07 (Apr) → -8.81 (May) → -10.51 (Jun) → -10.24 (Jul) → -9.12 (Aug)

FDI net outflows rose from US $0.12 billion to US $0.42 billion.

Net outflows of portfolio investment declined from US $7.15 billion to US $2.35 billion, as net outflows of foreign investment in Korean shares fell and Korean investment in overseas shares flowed in back to korea, making the money flow from a net outflow of US $1.84 billion to a net inflow of US $2.32 billion.

Net outflows of financial derivatives investment rose from US $0.96 billion to US $1.70 billion, while net outflows of other investment surged from US $2.95 billion to US $8.53 billion as financial institutions considerably increased lending.

31

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

The current account surplus is expected to rise month-on-month in September, considering the large trade surplus (US $8.94 billion).

Capital & financial account balance

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

15 (US $ billion) 10

5

0

-5

-10

-15 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

Direct investment

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Portfolio investment

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Financial derivatives

2014.1

2015.1

Capital & financial account

11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent year-on-year in September.

Consumer price inflation 7

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

(%)

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)

32

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Consumer price inflation

(%)

2015 Feb 0.0 0.5

Month-on-Month Year-on-Year

Mar 0.0 0.4

Apr 0.1 0.4

May 0.3 0.5

Jun 0.0 0.7

Jul 0.2 0.7

Aug 0.2 0.7

Sep -0.2 0.6

Source: Statistics Korea

Declines in oil product prices (down 18.8%) pushed down consumer price inflation in September by 0.95 percentage points. Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices stabilized (down 0.2%, m-o-m) due to strong harvests and the Korea Grand Sale.

Agricultural, livestock & fishery price increases (y-o-y, %) 4.1 (Jun 2015) → 3.7 (Jul) → 3.4 (Aug) → 1.7 (Sep)

Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Year-on-Year (%) Contribution (%p)

0.6 -

Agricultural, livestock & fishery products 1.7 0.13

Manufactured Public Housing Public Personal products Oil products utilities rents services services -0.4 -18.8 -9.9 2.7 1.9 1.8 -0.12 -0.95 -0.51 0.26 0.27 0.58

Core inflation stayed in the 2 percent range. Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products rose 2.1 percent year-on-year, and consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 2.5 percent.

Prices 16

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

(y‐o‐y, %)

13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Consumer price inflation

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Core inflation

2015.1

Producer price inflation

(y-o-y, %)

Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products Consumer prices excluding food and energy Source: Statistics Korea

Feb 2.3 2.3

Mar 2.1 2.3

Apr 2.0 2.3

2015 May Jun 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2

Jul 2.0 2.5

Aug 2.1 2.5

Sep 2.1 2.5

33

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

The expected annual inflation stayed in the mid-2 percent range.

Expected inflation (%, Bank of Korea) 2.6 (Feb 2015) → 2.5 (Mar) → 2.5 (Apr) → 2.5 (May) → 2.5 (Jun) → 2.6 (Jul) → 2.5 (Aug) → 2.4 (Sep)

11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices fell in September due to oversupply concerns and China’s economic slowdown.

Dubai crude prices declined due to high OPEC production levels, poor economic data from China and declining stock prices in major markets.

Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 47.8 (1st week Sep) → 46.5 (2nd week) → 45.2 (3rd week) → 44.9 (4th week) → 44.9 (5th week)

According to Bloomberg, OPEC’s daily oil output in September was 32 million barrels, exceeding its output target of 30 million barrels per day for the 16th consecutive month.

In China, fixed asset investment in the first eight months of 2015 rose 10.9 percent year-on-year, falling short of market expectations (11.1%), while the manufacturing PMI posted 47.0 in September, the lowest since March 2009.

International oil prices

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

160 (US $/B) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Dubai crude

WTI

(US $/barrel, period average)

Dubai crude Brent crude WTI crude Source: Korea PDS

2013 Annual Annual 105.2 96.6 108.7 99.1 98.0 93.1

Q1 104.4 108.1 98.7

2014 Q2 106.1 109.7 103.0

Q3 101.6 102.7 97.2

Q4 74.6 76.7 73.4

Q1 51.9 55.1 48.6

Q2 60.5 63.5 58.0

2015 Jul 55.6 56.7 51.0

Aug 47.8 48.2 42.9

Sep 45.8 48.6 45.5

34

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall at a steady pace, as falling international gasoline prices were reflected with a time lag.

Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,520.7 (1st week Sep) → 1,515.1 (2nd week) → 1,512.3 (3rd week) → 1,507.9 (4th week) → 1,504.7 (5th week) International gasoline prices (US $/barrel) 62.1 (3rd week Aug) → 56.5 (4th week) → 61.4 (1st week Sep) → 60.8 (2nd week) → 60.7 (3rd week)

(Won/liter, period average)

Gasoline prices

2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug Sep 1,924.5 1,827.6 1,882.7 1,868.9 1,837.8 1,721.1 1,485.4 1,543.2 1,576.0 1,544.5 1,511.5

Diesel prices

1,729.6 1,637.0 1,699.9 1,680.0 1,641.4 1,526.7 1,312.6 1,344.2 1,354.7 1,307.8 1,263.8

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160

(thousand won/B)

(US $/B)

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Dubai international prices (dollar, right)

International grain prices were mixed in September. Wheat and soybean prices fell due to overproduction. the Korea Rural Economic Institute predicted that global wheat production will reach record high levels in 201516. Meanwhile, corn and raw sugar prices rose as the US Department of Agriculture lowered its 2015-16 forecast for global corn inventories by 5.4 million tons compared to the previous month.

International grain price increases in September (m-o-m, %) wheat (-2.4), soybeans (-6.8), raw sugar (6.0), corn (1.7)

Nonferrous metal prices rose as demand recovered in China and production is expected to decline in Africa.

Copper imports in China rose 19.0 percent month-on-month in August, while Glencore, the world’s largest commodity trading company, announced on September 8 that it will suspend copper production in Congo and Zimbabwe for a quarter.

35

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

Nonferrous metal price increases in September (m-o-m, %) copper (2.3), aluminum (2.9), nickel (1.7), zinc (-5.0) (Period average)

2013 Annual Annual Reuters Index1 (sep 18,1931=100)

2,774

2,523

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2015 Jul

Aug

Sep

2,600

2,608

2,491

2,397

2,368

2,394

2,380

2,254

2,220

1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS

International commodity prices

Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

470

4000

430 390

3000

350 310

2000

270 230

1000

190 150

0

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

CRB (left)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Reuters index (right)

12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Apartment prices rose 0.3 percent month-on-month nationwide in September.

Apartment price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.4%), which includes Seoul (up 0.4%) and Incheon (up 0.3%).

Apartment prices also accelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.3%). Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

Apartment price increases in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.3), Daegu (1.0), Gwangju (0.3), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.3)

36

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Apartment sales prices by region 3

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

(m-o-m, %)

2

1

0

-1 2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

7

Nationwide

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

2015.1

7

(Percentage change from previous period)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Sep Annual Apr 1.9 6.9 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.2 2.7 0.4 -1.7 0.5 -3.0 -1.1 1.5 0.3 3.3 0.6 -1.2 0.3 -2.9 -1.4 1.1 0.2 3.3 0.5 -1.0 0.3 -3.5 -1.1 1.2 0.3 3.9 0.6 -1.4 0.3 -2.3 -1.7 1.1 0.1 2.7 0.4 6.4

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Nationwide apartment prices Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

2014.1

15.1

3.1

1.7

1.9

0.2

2.1

0.3

May 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3

2015 Jun 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4

Jul 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3

Aug 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

Sep 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Apartment rental prices rose 0.4 percent month-on-month nationwide in September.

Rental prices rose 0.6 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.3 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area.

Apartment rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.7), Seocho (0.7), Songpa (0.7), Gangdong (0.9), Seongdong (0.8), Nowon (1.6)

Nationwide apartment rental prices Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

2010 Annual 7.1 6.3 6.4 7.6 5.1 9.2

(Percentage change from previous period)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Annual Annual Sep Annual Apr May Jun 12.3 3.5 4.7 3.4 0.3 3.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 11.0 2.1 6.2 4.7 0.5 5.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 10.8 2.1 6.6 3.6 0.3 5.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 11.1 2.4 6.7 3.3 0.3 6.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 10.6 1.8 6.4 3.8 0.3 4.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 14.5

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

4.6

3.3

2.2

0.2

2.1

0.3

0.2

0.3

Jul 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5

Aug 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5

Sep 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

0.2

0.2

0.3

37

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3

(m-o-m, %)

2

1

0

-1

-2 2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2001.1

7

Nationwide

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

2014.1

7

2015.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Apartment sales transactions declined 15.0 percent from 110,675 transactions in July to 94,110 transactions in August, but were up 23.2 percent from a year ago (76,385).

Apartment sales transactions

(Thousands)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 67 82 61 71 84 76 87 109 91 91 79 79 112 120 110 110 111 94 Nationwide 1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Monthly apartment transaction volume 160

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

(thousands)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

Nationwide

7

2012.1

7

2013.1

Seoul metropolitan area

12.2 Land market Land prices rose 0.19 percent month-on-month nationwide in August.

7

2014.1

7

2015.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

38

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Land price growth decelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.18%), which includes Seoul (up 0.22%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.13%).

Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.14 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.17 (Mar) → 0.19 (Apr) → 0.17 (May) → 0.19 (Jun) → 0.20 (Jul) → 0.18 (Aug)

Land price growth also decelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.21%), which include Busan (up 0.24%), Gwangju (up 0.19%) and Ulsan (up 0.16%).

Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.22 (Mar) → 0.21 (Apr) → 0.20 (May) → 0.25 (Jun) → 0.24 (Jul) → 0.21 (Aug)

Land prices by region 15 12

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

(%)

9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

National average

2001

2002

2004

2005

2006

2007

Metropolitan city

Land and consumer prices since 1970s 60

2003

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

City

2013

2014

County

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

(y‐o‐y, %)

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1974

1978

Land price inflation

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

Consumer price inflation

39

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

Land prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Jun Jul Aug 0.96 1.05 1.17 0.96 1.14 1.96 0.48 0.49 0.53 1.48 0.48 0.59 0.21 0.22 0.19

Nationwide Seoul

1.40 0.53

0.97

0.38

1.21

2.66 0.59 0.69 0.67

1.73 0.57 0.69 0.23 0.24 0.22

Gyeonggi

1.22 1.49

1.47

1.04

0.91

1.24 0.37 0.27 0.33

1.07 0.35 0.41 0.15 0.17 0.13

Incheon

1.99 1.43

0.66

0.46

0.87

1.35 0.25 0.32 0.40

1.27 0.37 0.53 0.19 0.17 0.19

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

There were 241,000 land transactions in August, down 16.9 percent from the previous month and up 17.8 percent from a year ago (204,000).

Land transactions declined in Seoul (down 18.4%, m-o-m), Ulsan (down 35.7%, m-o-m), Daegu (down 33.2%, m-o-m) and Sejong (down 59.6%, m-o-m).

Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 35.8 percent of total land transactions, recorded 86,000 in August, down 16.6 percent month-on-month and up 13.2 percent compared with a year ago (76,000).

Land transactions

(Land lots, thousands)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Nationwide 187 208 170 187 220 204 214 258 228 257 219 199 278 293 262 279 290 241 Seoul

16

18

13

17

22

21

23

29

25

23

20

21

33

36

34

33

36

29

Gyeonggi

41

43

33

37

46

42

46

57

50

53

45

43

62

66

60

65

62

56

Incheon

8

10

8

8

10

9

10

13

11

9

8

8

12

13

12

13

15

13

1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

Land transaction volume 500,000

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

(thousand m²)

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Seoul metropolitan area

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

40

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in August rose 0.5 percent month-on-month and 1.3 percent year-on-year.

Output rose in mining & manufacturing (up 0.4%, m-o-m), services (up 0.4%, m-o-m) and construction (up 3.9%, m-o-m), but fell in public administration (down 2.3%, m-o-m).

Index of all industry production

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

20 (%) 15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Index of all industry production (m-o-m)

2014.1

2015.1

Index of all industry production(y-o-y)

2015 Jan Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun1

Jul1

Aug1

-1.9 0.6

2.2 0.6

-0.5 2.0

-0.5 0.7

-0.6 0.1

0.6 1.4

0.5 0.2

0.5 1.3

Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)

123.6 0.4

124.4 0.6

124.7 0.2

125.1 0.3

125.0 -0.1

125.2 0.2

125.8 0.5

126.8 0.8

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)

100.1 0.0

100.5 0.4

100.3 -0.2

100.3 0.0

99.8 -0.5

99.5 -0.3

99.7 0.2

100.0 0.3

Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)

127.8 1.5

129.0 0.9

130.5 1.2

131.1 0.5

132.1 0.8

132.3 0.2

132.9 0.5

133.9 0.8

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)

102.5 1.0

103.1 0.6

103.8 0.7

103.7 -0.1

104.0 0.3

103.6 -0.4

103.5 -0.1

103.6 0.1

1. Preliminary

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ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index was up 0.3 points month-on-month to 100.0. All components of the coincident composite index rose.

Components of the coincident composite index in August (m-o-m) mining & manufacturing production (0.7%), service output (0.4%), value of construction completed (2.7%), retail sales (0.2%), domestic shipments (0.2%), imports (1.3%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.3%)

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(points)

100

90 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points month-on-month to 103.6. The consumer expectations index and KOSPI declined, while the other components of the leading composite index rose.

Components of the leading composite index in August (m-o-m) inventory circulation indicator (0.2%p), domestic shipments of machinery (2.3%), ratio of export to import prices (0.9%), international commodity prices (2.4%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (2.7%p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.04%p), consumer expectations index (-1.0p), KOSPI (-2.6%)

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 110

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(points)

100

90 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Policy Issue

President Park’s Official Visit to the US

Featured Issue

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ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

President Park’s Official Visit to the US Korea and US Confirm Deeper Trade and Economic Relationship as well as Stronger Defense Alliance

President Park Geun-hye made her second visit to the US on October 13-16. During her visit, President Park had summit talks with the US President Barack Obama, where the two leaders reaffirmed stronger defense cooperation, and President Obama announced the US’s strong support for President Park’s vision of a peaceful reunification as envisaged in her Dresden address.

President Park also visited NASA, where she discussed expanding cooperation in space exploration, and attended the Korea-US Business Innovation Partnership Forum, where she highlighted the importance of boosting cooperation in high tech industries.

Following is the summary of the Joint Fact Sheet : The partnership between the Republic of Korea and the United States has ‘reached new levels of achievement’ on the occasion of President Park Geun-hye’s second visit to the US. The two nations agreed to ‘work together to manage a range of complex issues on the Korean peninsula, in the region, and around the world.’

With regard to the Korea-US defense alliance, the two countries agreed that the alliance ‘remains firmly and fully committed to countering the evolving threat to peace and security posed by North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.’ Meanwhile, the importance of both ‘respective independent investments and combined efforts to improve defense technology security’ has been stressed to ‘enhance cooperation on defense capabilities.’

With regard to trade and economic cooperation, Korea, US’s sixth largest trading partner, and the United States, Korea’s second largest trading partner, shared views on ‘many trade and investment issues’ while ensuring that the Korea-US FTA ‘generates the anticipated benefits for their respective peoples through full implementation.’

Featured Issue

President Park Geun-hye is welcomed to the Pentagon with a full military honors parade on October 15.

The two countries ‘have held constructive consultation’ on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the United States ‘reaffirmed that it welcomes Korea’s interest in the TPP.’ Both sides agreed to pursue ‘deepening the consultation.’

Korea and the United States also had talks on ‘entrepreneurship, business facilitation, foreign direct investment, and other commercial issues of mutual benefit’ at the 2nd Korea-US Commercial Dialogue on October 14. ‘In recognition of President Park’s commitment to the creative economy,’ the two countries agreed to ‘expand creative economy partnerships and enhance relationships between Korea and US innovators through the Presidential Ambassadors for Global Entrepreneurship (PAGE) initiative.’

In addition to defense and economic cooperation issues, the two countries agreed to ‘expand cooperation on cyber issues’, sharing views that ‘in cyberspace, just as elsewhere, states have a special responsibility to promote security, stability, and economic ties with other nations,’ and decided to strengthen cooperation on cybersecurity.

The partnership in civil space cooperation is also expected to strengthen as the two nations intend to conclude a Framework Agreement for Cooperation in Aeronautics and the Exploration and Use of Airspace and Outer Space for Civil and Peaceful Purposes at the earliest possible date.

Korea and the United States also reaffirmed ‘a deep and enduring bilateral relationship in science and technology cooperation’, and ‘have identified priority areas of cooperation including nanotechnology, advanced manufacturing, biotechnology, and information and communications technologies research.’

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ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

Korea Ranks 26th in Global Competitiveness Report Deputy Prime Minister Stresses WB’s Support for Regional Development Banks Deputy Prime Minister Meets with US and Iranian Counterparts Korea-China-Japan Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting Held in Lima Financial Regulator Reveals Plans to Develop ETF Market FDI Up 9.0% in Jan-Sep Period

Economic News Briefing

Economic News Briefing

Korea Ranks 26th in Global Competitiveness Report Korea ranked 26th in this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Competitiveness Report, the same place as last year. Among the three sub-indexes for competitiveness, Korea’s ranking rose in the ‘basic requirements’ sub-index (20th → 18th) and remained unchanged in the ‘efficiency enhancers’ (25th) and ‘innovation and sophistication factors’ (22nd) sub-indexes. Of the 114 individual indicators, 62.3 percent (71 out of 114) showed improvement. Korea ranked high in macroeconomic environment (5th), market size (13th) and infrastructure (13th), and ranked low in institutions (69th), labor market efficiency (83rd) and financial market development (87th). Meanwhile, the rankings of Korea’s closest neighbors Japan and China also remained unchanged, standing at 6th and 28th, respectively.

Deputy Prime Minister Stresses WB’s Support for Regional Development Banks Deputy Prime Minister Choi Kyung Hwan attended the World Bank Development Committee Meeting on October 10 during his visit to Lima, Peru for the IMF/WB Annual Meetings. WB President Jim Yong Kim, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and representatives of other international organizations as well as finance ministers of major economies attended the meeting and discussed the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the role of the World Bank in achieving the goals.

Participants agreed on the importance of global cooperation as well as inclusive growth, job creation, infrastructure investment and human capital development.

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors pose for a group photo with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and WB President Jim Yong Kim in Lima, Peru on October 8 during the IMF/WB Annual Meetings.

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ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

Deputy Prime Minister Choi called for cooperation between the World Bank and regional development banks, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and stressed the importance of sharing knowledge on economic development with developing countries, introducing Korea’s rural development strategy, the New Village Movement (Saemaul Undong). The Deputy Prime Minister proposed the WB assist regional development banks with its expertise and experience, while asking for support for the AIIB and the launch of a Northeast Asia development bank.

Deputy Prime Minister Meets with US and Iranian Counterparts Deputy Prime Minister Choi held talks with his US and Iranian counterparts on the sidelines of the IMF/WB Annual Meetings. At the meeting with US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on October 9, the Deputy Prime Minister said that the Korean government is pursuing the establishment of a Northeast Asian development bank on the premise that the North abandons its nuclear ambitions, and asked for support.

On October 10, Deputy Prime Minister Choi met with Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayebnia and talked about increasing trade and investment following the lifting of sanctions against Iran. Deputy Prime Minister Choi said that Korea is expecting bilateral trade, which has declined to half of the pre-sanction level, to rebound quickly, and Iran’s Finance Minister responded that Iran is also expecting the economic cooperation between the two countries to pick up quickly once the sanctions against Iran are lifted.

(Above) Deputy Prime Minister Choi Kyung Hwan (left) shakes hands with US Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew prior to their meeting on October 9. (Below) Deputy Prime Minister Choi talks with Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayebnia on October 10.

Korea-China-Japan Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting Held in Lima Deputy Prime Minister Choi Kyung Hwan attended the 15th Korea-China-Japan Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting held in Lima, Peru on October 8, where participants mainly discussed regional financial cooperation as well as policy responses to global economic uncertainties.

Economic News Briefing

The participants of the trilateral meeting recognized that global growth had fallen short of expectations, and agreed to closely monitor developments, assess spillovers and address emerging risks as needed. They affirmed their commitment to implementing timely and effective macroeconomic policies to help keep domestic and regional economic growth on track. Regarding regional financial cooperation in ASEAN+3, the participants said they will work with the regional members to further increase the readiness and effectiveness of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM), and welcomed the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) to be transformed into an international organization in the near future.

Financial Regulator Reveals Plans to Develop ETF Market The Financial Services Commission (FSC) recently announced measures to boost Korea’s Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) market, which had been growing more than 40 percent every year since it was launched in 2002 but has stagnated since 2014.

The FSC will revise regulations that currently deter public and private pension funds from investing in ETFs. The financial regulator will let the National Pension Service and individual pensions include ETFs in their investment portfolios, and will loosen a stake restriction on ETFs held by mutual funds, raising the ceiling from 20 percent to 50 percent.

On the supply side, the FSC will lift regulations related to the listing and management of ETFs. The FSC will encourage foreign ETFs to list in the local bourse, and will allow brokerage houses and asset management firms to introduce a greater variety of ETFs.

FDI Up 9.0% in Jan-Sep Period Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first three quarters of 2015 increased 9.0 percent compared to the same period of the previous year to US $10.82 billion (arrival basis). This is the first time FDI has exceeded US $10 billion by the end of the third quarter.

FDI in construction, utilities and primary industries rose 3,108.7 percent to US $1.28 billion. Investment in services declined 4.4 percent year-on-year to US $5.62 billion and FDI in manufacturing was down 2.0 percent to US $3.93 billion. By country, investment from China rose 465.8 percent to US $1.38 billion, while FDI from the US (down 5.6%, US $1.36 billion), EU (down 13.7%, US $3.44 billion) and Japan (down 55.0%, US $0.81 billion) declined.

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ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates

Statistical Appendices

50

Statistical Appendices

1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)

Real GDP

Final consumption Agri., fores. & Manufacturing expenditure fisheries

Period

Gross fixed capital formation Construction

Facilities

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P

5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3

1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 2.6

7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 4.0

5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0

3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.1

0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.0

8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 5.8

2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8

4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2

9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1

5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0

3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9

1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4

4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8

2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3

1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6

6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9

5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0

6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2

3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9

10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2

2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6

7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4

8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3

4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4

1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0

-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3

7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0

2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8

2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0

-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4

-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5

-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8

1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1

-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5

2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0

0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7

16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9

6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4

12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2

1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2

27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1

-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1

11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4

3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7

-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3

-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0

8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1

0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3

2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0

2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7

6.2 -2.2 -0.9 -3.6

-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4

11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5

-1.2 0.3 4.4 6.8

2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2

1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6

-3.2 4.3 4.9 6.5

1.3 8.9 7.4 3.5

-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.6

2014PⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

3.9 3.4 3.3 2.7

5.6 3.3 1.4 1.3

5.1 5.1 3.3 2.4

2.7 1.7 2.0 1.8

5.8 3.3 3.3 0.7

4.1 0.2 2.3 -1.5

7.2 7.7 4.2 4.2

2015PⅠ Ⅱ

2.5 2.2

6.3 -4.7

0.7 0.8

1.9 2.0

2.4 2.4

0.6 1.6

5.8 5.0

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

51

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100)

Period

Production index

Shipment index

y-o-y change(%)

Inventory index

y-o-y change(%)

Service production index

y-o-y change(%)

y-o-y change(%)

2012 2013 2014

107.4 108.2 108.2

1.3 0.7 0.0

107.2 108.1 107.9

1.5 0.8 -0.2

125.2 130.7 128.4

4.4 4.4 -1.8

104.8 106.4 108.7

1.6 1.5 2.2

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6

3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8

106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8

3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5

117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2

12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4

102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6

2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.0 109.3 104.3 113.0

-0.6 0.4 0.6 2.2

106.1 109.4 104.5 112.2

-0.5 0.9 0.7 2.2

123.1 119.2 124.5 130.7

4.6 3.8 8.7 4.4

103.2 106.8 105.6 110.0

1.2 1.8 0.8 2.1

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.7 109.8 105.5 110.9

0.7 0.5 1.2 -1.9

106.5 109.3 104.8 111.0

0.4 -0.1 0.3 -1.1

130.0 128.9 129.7 128.4

5.6 8.1 4.2 -1.8

105.3 108.4 108.3 112.9

2.0 1.5 2.6 2.6

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

105.7 108.2

-0.9 -1.5

105.9 108.0

-0.6 -1.2

133.7 136.0

2.8 5.5

108.2 111.1

2.9 2.5

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

111.2 97.3 109.6 109.5 110.6 107.8 108.0 103.9 101.1 113.3 112.2 113.4

9.0 -8.3 -1.8 2.5 -0.1 -1.3 1.9 3.6 -3.4 4.1 -0.4 2.8

110.0 98.2 110.2 109.3 110.3 108.6 107.1 104.9 101.4 112.6 111.4 112.6

7.0 -7.4 -0.7 2.9 0.4 -0.5 1.8 5.0 -4.5 4.1 0.4 2.3

128.6 124.6 123.1 120.7 121.7 119.2 124.0 123.5 124.5 126.3 129.1 130.7

7.8 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.0 3.8 7.5 3.5 8.7 8.8 6.4 4.4

102.4 100.4 106.7 105.6 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.7 105.4 107.8 107.4 114.7

2.1 0.5 0.9 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.7 -0.3 2.9 1.8 1.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

106.2 101.0 112.9 112.4 108.4 108.5 112.3 101.2 103.1 109.8 108.3 114.7

-4.5 3.8 3.0 2.6 -2.0 0.6 4.0 -2.6 2.0 -3.1 -3.5 1.1

105.1 101.3 113.1 111.3 108.7 107.8 109.5 101.7 103.2 109.0 109.2 114.9

-4.5 3.2 2.6 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.2 -3.1 1.8 -3.2 -2.0 2.0

132.1 129.3 130.0 131.2 130.0 128.9 133.2 130.6 129.7 130.7 129.7 128.4

2.7 3.8 5.6 8.7 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.7 4.2 3.5 0.5 -1.8

104.7 101.8 109.4 106.9 108.8 109.6 108.7 107.9 108.3 110.6 109.8 118.4

2.2 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

108.1 96.0 113.0 109.5 105.1 110.0 108.7 101.5

1.8 -5.0 0.1 -2.6 -3.0 1.4 -3.2 0.3

108.1 96.6 113.1 109.5 105.5 108.9 107.5 102.3

2.9 -4.6 0.0 -1.6 -2.9 1.0 -1.8 0.6

132.4 133.0 133.7 135.2 134.6 136.0 139.1 138.0

0.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.5 5.5 4.4 5.7

107.1 104.6 113.0 111.2 111.4 110.6 111.2 110.2

2.4 2.8 3.3 4.0 2.4 0.9 2.3 2.1

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

52

Statistical Appendices

3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period

Production capacity index (2010=100)

Operation ratio index (2010=100)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Average operation ratio (%)

2012 2013 2014

106.9 108.6 110.3

2.1 1.6 1.6

97.5 95.1 94.2

-2.7 -2.5 -0.9

78.6 76.5 76.1

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5

2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8

97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3

-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5

79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

108.1 108.3 108.8 109.3

1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7

93.7 97.9 90.8 98.3

-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 0.0

77.3 76.1 75.4 77.0

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

109.6 109.9 110.6 111.0

1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6

92.8 96.8 91.5 95.8

-1.0 -1.1 0.8 -2.5

77.1 76.1 76.0 75.1

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

111.2 111.3

1.5 1.3

90.1 94.8

-2.9 -2.1

74.4 74.2

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.9 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.6

1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9

98.9 84.9 97.2 97.9 99.4 96.3 94.6 90.7 87.0 99.7 98.2 96.9

6.9 -12.7 -5.5 -1.0 -3.1 -5.0 -2.7 2.7 -7.5 1.6 -2.5 0.8

78.8 77.3 75.9 75.8 76.4 76.2 74.7 76.8 74.8 77.0 76.5 77.4

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.7 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.8 110.9 110.9 111.1

1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4

91.9 87.5 99.0 99.8 95.6 94.9 98.7 86.8 88.9 95.8 94.1 97.6

-7.1 3.1 1.9 1.9 -3.8 -1.5 4.3 -4.3 2.2 -3.9 -4.2 0.7

77.8 76.3 77.2 77.2 74.9 76.3 77.9 74.7 75.4 74.2 74.6 76.6

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

111.1 111.0 111.5 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.2 111.2

1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5

93.0 81.1 96.3 95.8 91.9 96.8 94.7 86.2

1.2 -7.3 -2.7 -4.0 -3.9 2.0 -4.1 -0.7

74.1 75.1 73.9 74.1 73.2 75.2 74.7 74.3

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

53

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100)

Period

y-o-y change (%)

Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)

Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)

2012 2013 2014

107.1 107.9 109.7

2.5 0.7 1.7

116.3 116.6 122.6

5.4 0.3 5.1

103.9 106.1 105.5

-0.3 2.1 -0.6

104.3 104.7 105.5

2.2 0.4 0.8

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.5 106.5 106.7 111.8

2.9 1.5 2.9 2.7

109.4 115.0 118.5 122.1

4.0 2.7 6.5 8.4

99.0 105.6 92.4 118.4

0.6 -0.4 -2.2 0.5

102.8 103.0 107.5 104.1

3.3 1.9 3.1 0.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.8 107.7 107.2 113.0

0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1

111.0 118.2 116.8 120.3

1.5 2.8 -1.4 -1.5

102.1 107.3 94.9 119.9

3.1 1.6 2.7 1.3

101.2 102.9 108.0 106.6

-1.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.3 108.6 108.8 115.1

2.4 0.8 1.5 1.9

117.2 121.2 123.4 128.6

5.6 2.5 5.7 6.9

100.3 104.9 96.2 120.4

-1.8 -2.2 1.4 0.4

103.8 104.3 107.5 106.5

2.6 1.4 -0.5 -0.1

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

108.0 111.8

1.6 2.9

126.6 131.9

8.0 8.8

98.7 104.0

-1.6 -0.9

103.4 105.8

-0.4 1.4

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.6 99.5 107.3 105.4 110.9 106.8 109.2 104.5 107.8 111.3 113.2 114.6

-2.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0 -1.4 2.0 1.3 0.1

112.3 105.9 114.8 115.1 119.7 119.9 127.5 116.2 106.8 120.5 120.2 120.1

4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 2.0 -0.2 1.4 1.8 -7.8 2.9 -2.4 -4.7

102.8 93.3 110.2 106.7 113.8 101.3 98.0 86.6 100.1 113.9 123.8 122.1

-1.9 1.5 9.8 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.6 5.4 2.6 -0.8 4.1 0.4

101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.0 105.6 106.8 111.6 105.8 105.3 108.8

-6.7 3.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 2.8 1.9 2.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

110.4 99.1 109.3 105.6 112.1 108.1 109.9 107.1 109.3 111.1 114.3 119.9

5.5 -0.4 1.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 4.6

116.1 116.9 118.5 114.2 121.8 127.5 131.1 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.7 138.1

3.4 10.4 3.2 -0.8 1.8 6.3 2.8 2.0 12.8 -1.3 7.1 15.0

100.7 92.0 108.2 105.8 111.8 97.2 95.7 91.5 101.5 116.0 120.6 124.7

-2.0 -1.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.8 -4.0 -2.3 5.7 1.4 1.8 -2.6 2.1

111.9 93.9 105.5 101.5 107.7 103.7 106.3 108.6 107.5 105.4 104.9 109.3

10.0 -5.4 2.9 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.7 -3.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

107.3 104.4 112.4 110.8 115.6 108.9 112.2 109.0

-2.8 5.3 2.8 4.9 3.1 0.7 2.1 1.8

128.2 117.2 134.5 129.3 130.1 136.2 139.9 129.6

10.4 0.3 13.5 13.2 6.8 6.8 6.7 9.4

97.9 92.6 105.7 107.6 115.4 89.1 92.7 87.1

-2.8 0.7 -2.3 1.7 3.2 -8.3 -3.1 -4.8

101.7 103.6 105.0 103.5 109.0 104.9 107.8 109.0

-9.1 10.3 -0.5 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.4

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

54

Statistical Appendices

5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)

Period

Consumer sentiment index

2012 2013 2014

102.5 102.2 101.8

1.6 -0.3 -0.4

102.8 103.4 102.6

2.5 0.6 -0.8

102.4 101.7 101.5

1.2 -0.7 -0.2

-

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0

-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6

97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0

-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9

102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4

0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1

-

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.0 98.7 102.4 104.7

2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2

108.3 100.9 102.6 101.8

10.7 1.8 0.1 -9.1

100.8 97.7 102.3 105.9

-1.2 -2.5 -1.5 2.4

-

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.7 100.3 102.4 103.9

-2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.8

103.4 103.0 100.9 103.2

-4.5 2.1 -1.7 1.4

99.5 99.2 103.0 104.2

-1.3 1.5 0.7 -1.6

-

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

101.8 101.0

1.1 0.7

99.9 102.5

-3.4 -0.5

102.5 100.4

3.0 1.2

-

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.8 96.9 103.3 99.5 99.7 96.9 103.4 104.0 99.7 108.8 102.9 102.3

8.2 -1.7 0.2 0.3 -1.9 -2.0 0.6 2.5 -6.0 2.1 -2.6 -3.2

110.3 106.4 108.1 98.1 101.7 102.8 109.0 103.8 94.9 104.4 103.1 97.8

19.2 8.2 5.5 4.3 1.3 0.0 3.5 5.5 -8.7 -3.8 -7.0 -16.1

108.1 92.9 101.3 100.0 98.8 94.4 101.1 104.2 101.7 110.7 102.8 104.2

3.9 -5.9 -1.9 -1.3 -3.2 -3.0 -0.7 1.3 -5.0 4.7 -0.7 3.1

102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

102.4 96.6 103.0 101.7 99.8 99.5 104.8 100.2 102.2 105.0 100.9 105.8

-5.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 0.1 2.7 1.4 -3.7 2.5 -3.5 -1.9 3.4

99.9 106.7 103.6 97.9 103.4 107.7 107.6 95.0 100.1 99.8 102.9 106.8

-9.4 0.3 -4.2 -0.2 1.7 4.8 -1.3 -8.5 5.5 -4.4 -0.2 9.2

103.4 92.3 102.8 103.3 98.2 96.1 103.7 102.4 103.0 107.3 100.0 105.4

-4.3 -0.6 1.5 3.3 -0.6 1.8 2.6 -1.7 1.3 -3.1 -2.7 1.2

109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107 107 105 103 101

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P 9

104.8 94.5 106.0 105.5 98.8 98.8 103.2 101.5 -

2.3 -2.2 2.9 3.7 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 1.3 -

101.2 92.8 105.8 107.1 98.1 102.3 107.0 103.3 -

1.3 -13.0 2.1 9.4 -5.1 -5.0 -0.6 8.7 -

106.3 95.2 106.1 104.7 99.1 97.3 101.6 100.8 -

2.8 3.1 3.2 1.4 0.9 1.2 -2.0 -1.6 -

102 103 101 104 105 99 100 102 103

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

55

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Estimated facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) (2010=100) change (%) change (%) change (%)

Period 2012 2013 2014

21,648 23,078 26,485

-13.9 6.6 14.8

2,142 2,580 5,012

-11.0 20.5 94.2

19,506 20,497 21,473

-14.2 5.1 4.8

100.6 99.8 105.0

-2.8 -0.8 5.2

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910

-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0

810 285 579 468

126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6

5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442

-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9

105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4

8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5,587 5,865 5,144 6,481

-11.5 8.8 2.1 32.0

429 554 522 1,075

-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7

5,158 5,311 4,622 5,406

-6.2 4.0 3.7 21.7

91.7 101.1 99.3 107.0

-12.7 -3.5 3.2 11.0

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,624 6,099 7,687 6,075

18.5 4.0 49.4 -6.3

1,221 305 2,708 778

184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6

5,403 5,794 4,979 5,297

4.7 9.1 7.7 -2.0

98.6 107.9 100.8 112.8

7.5 6.7 1.5 5.4

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

6,453 7,054

-2.6 15.7

405 493

-66.9 61.7

6,048 6,561

12.0 13.2

106.9 113.5

8.4 5.2

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,844 1,666 2,078 1,846 2,127 1,893 1,934 1,622 1,588 2,604 2,094 1,783

-4.6 -34.5 13.2 0.0 16.2 10.3 5.4 7.5 -6.2 72.3 26.5 2.3

139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124

169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.5 -28.5 815.5 28.2 -51.4

1,704 1,497 1,957 1,753 1,877 1,681 1,575 1,530 1,517 1,816 1,931 1,659

-9.4 -18.9 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.3 14.2 -4.8 27.4 26.3 11.5

90.1 83.9 101.0 98.7 102.1 102.5 108.4 100.6 88.8 109.6 101.9 109.4

-7.8 -23.1 -6.7 -7.1 -3.5 0.2 2.8 11.7 -4.6 16.0 10.3 7.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,748 1,847 3,029 2,276 1,826 1,997 1,779 4,090 1,818 1,932 2,303 1,840

-5.2 10.9 45.8 23.3 -14.1 5.5 -8.0 152.2 14.5 -25.8 10.0 3.2

88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139

-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5

1,660 1,727 2,016 2,179 1,709 1,906 1,690 1,549 1,739 1,722 1,874 1,701

-2.6 15.3 3.0 24.3 -8.9 13.4 7.3 1.3 14.7 -5.2 -2.9 2.5

90.3 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.3 104.9 111.4 90.7 100.2 99.8 112.5 126.0

0.2 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.1 2.3 2.8 -9.8 12.8 -8.9 10.4 15.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

2,324 1,856 2,273 2,782 2,102 2,170 2,018 1,650

32.9 0.5 -24.9 22.2 15.1 8.6 13.4 -59.6

116 141 148 127 197 169 133 162

32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7 50.2 -93.6

2,208 1,715 2,126 2,656 1,905 2,000 1,885 1,489

33.0 -0.7 5.5 21.9 11.4 5.0 11.5 -3.9

102.7 98.6 119.5 113.5 109.1 117.8 119.2 106.2

13.7 3.1 8.8 2.6 0.7 12.3 7.0 17.1

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

56

Statistical Appendices

7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won)

Period

Value of construction completed y-o-y (Total) change (%)

Type of order Public Private

Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) y-o-y change (%) (Total)

y-o-y change (%)

Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2012 2013 2014

88,713 98,089 98,465

-3.3 10.6 0.4

33,807 34,459 32,004

-3.7 1.9 -7.1

50,622 59,714 62,403

-2.0 18.0 4.5

89,395 77,885 89,833

-6.2 -12.9 15.3

26,071 24,736 26,497

-8.9 -5.1 7.1

59,811 50,947 61,321

-3.3 -14.8 20.4

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676

0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8

7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876

1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8

10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613

-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6

22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596

38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0

5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443

37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8

16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877

46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

20,178 25,760 23,718 28,732

4.7 14.9 11.1 10.7

6,998 9,318 8,058 10,085

-6.0 4.8 6.0 2.1

12,415 15,455 14,739 17,106

14.0 24.2 16.3 17.1

13,826 18,694 16,833 28,532

-39.0 -27.4 -8.5 26.3

4,292 5,371 4,987 10,086

-24.1 -3.6 -7.7 6.8

9,180 12,636 11,442 17,688

-43.7 -33.8 -8.6 48.9

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

21,675 26,174 23,601 27,016

7.4 1.6 -0.5 -5.0

7,147 8,706 7,243 8,909

2.1 -6.6 -10.1 -11.7

13,676 16,512 15,360 16,855

10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.5

15,972 23,436 24,035 26,390

15.5 25.4 42.8 -7.5

5,898 6,577 5,190 8,833

37.4 22.5 4.1 -12.4

9,628 16,537 18,175 16,982

4.9 30.9 58.8 -4.0

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

21,252 25,004

-2.0 -4.5

6,554 8,190

-8.3 -5.9

13,949 15,831

2.0 -4.1

24,821 35,163

55.4 50.0

4,566 9,186

-22.6 39.7

19,980 107.5 25,459 54.0

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,272 6,236 7,670 81,057 81,607 94,947 7,854 7,666 8,199 8,637 9,088 10,708

8.2 3.3 3.0 18.4 11.7 15.0 11.6 16.5 6.0 17.6 12.2 4.6

2,072 2,346 2,581 2,830 2,797 3,691 2,635 2,553 2,870 2,952 3,118 4,015

-2.4 -1.1 -12.4 7.0 -2.7 9.4 11.1 10.0 -1.2 13.9 3.8 -6.2

3,962 3,662 4,790 4,978 5,088 5,389 4,908 4,827 5,004 5,344 5,635 6,126

17.4 7.5 16.4 27.5 23.9 21.6 14.7 22.4 12.4 20.0 18.1 13.7

3,557 4,723 5,546 5,151 6,221 7,321 5,775 4,690 6,368 7,751 8,083 12,698

-52.4 -44.4 -17.4 -19.9 -14.9 -39.0 -15.4 -13.0 3.0 33.6 11.6 32.9

1,300 1,281 1,711 1,565 1,564 2,241 1,493 1,474 2,021 1,518 2,664 5,904

-36.1 -42.3 21.9 7.7 47.4 -26.7 -35.2 12.0 13.5 -23.0 26.5 10.0

2,109 3,290 3,781 3,160 4,537 4,940 4,148 3,172 4,122 6,144 5,204 6,340

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

7,057 6,665 7,953 8,476 8,191 9,506 7,914 7,721 7,966 8,239 8,339 10,438

12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.2 -2.5

2,314 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,382 2,429 2,324 2,491 2,532 2,673 3,704

11.7 -6.0 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.4 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.3 -7.8

4,452 4,237 4,987 5,458 5,316 5,737 5,149 5,112 5,099 5,369 5,293 6,194

12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -6.1 1.1

5,528 5,549 4,895 7,359 6,834 9,243 6,969 8,688 8,377 7,755 6,427 12,209

55.4 17.5 -11.7 42.9 9.9 26.2 20.7 85.2 31.6 0.0 -20.5 -3.9

2,034 2,241 1,623 1,894 2,000 2,682 1,533 1,628 2,029 1,416 1,895 5,522

56.4 75.0 -5.1 21.0 27.8 19.7 2.7 10.5 0.4 -6.7 -28.9 -6.5

3,305 56.7 3,158 -4.0 3,165 -16.3 5,454 72.6 4,767 5.1 6,316 27.8 5,298 27.7 6,849 115.9 6,029 46.3 6,157 0.2 4,415 -15.2 6,410 1.1

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

6,774 6,681 7,796 7,708 7,764 9,531 7,882 8,006

-4.0 0.2 -2.0 -9.1 -5.2 0.3 -0.4 3.7

1,997 2,089 2,468 2,467 2,325 3,399 2,283 2,198

-13.7 -5.3 -6.0 -10.0 -10.0 0.5 -6.0 -5.4

4,561 4,374 5,014 4,937 5,127 5,767 5,338 5,515

2.4 3.2 0.5 -9.6 -3.6 0.5 3.7 7.9

7,216 5,367 12,238 9,048 12,556 13,559 8,610 8,364

30.5 -3.3 150.0 22.9 83.7 46.7 23.5 -3.7

1,297 1,133 2,136 2,586 2,458 4,142 1,791 1,931

-36.2 -49.4 31.6 36.5 22.9 54.4 16.8 18.6

5,882 78.0 4,115 30.3 9,882 215.4 6,406 17.4 9,995 109.7 9,059 43.4 6,791 28.2 6,128 -10.5

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

-60.0 -46.3 -23.1 -29.2 -26.0 -41.9 -4.2 -21.3 -0.9 62.2 8.5 92.7

57

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period

Leading index (2010=100)

Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)

Cyclical Coincident index indicator of (2010=100) coincident index (2010=100)

BSI (results)

BSI (prospects)

2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

101.5 101.7 101.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.3 103.5 103.8

101.0 100.7 100.3 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.2 99.0 98.7 98.4 98.3

103.5 103.5 104.0 104.0 104.9 105.6 106.2 106.7 106.8 107.2 107.3 107.7

101.7 101.4 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.0 101.6 101.6 101.2 101.2

99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1

101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.6 105.7 106.2 106.6 106.7 107.8 108.3 108.4 108.1 108.5 109.3 110.1

98.5 99.2 99.1 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.3 98.9 98.2 98.1 98.4 98.7

107.7 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.3 109.7 110.5 110.4 110.8 110.9 111.5 112.1

100.8 101.3 101.0 101.0 100.6 100.7 100.9 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.2 100.3

88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0

88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

110.4 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.7 113.8 114.5 115.1 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.1

98.5 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.3

112.4 112.9 113.0 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.1 116.8 117.2 117.8

100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 100.3

85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5

85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

118.7 118.9 119.0 119.4 119.8 120.5 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.4 124.9 125.9

100.4 100.2 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.4 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.5

118.5 118.9 119.4 119.6 119.8 120.2 120.8 121.5 121.8 121.9 122.2 123.0

100.5 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.2 99.9 99.8 100.1

89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4

93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

127.8 129.0 130.5 131.1 132.1 132.3 132.9 133.9 -

102.5 103.1 103.8 103.8 104.0 103.6 103.5 103.6 -

123.6 124.5 124.7 125.1 125.0 125.2 125.8 126.8 -

100.2 100.5 100.3 100.3 99.8 99.5 99.7 100.0 -

94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 86.6 96.1 -

90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6 95.1 101.2

Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea

58

Statistical Appendices

9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)

Period

Current account

Goods

2012 2013 2014

50,835.0 79,883.6 89,220.1

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

Services

Primary income

Secondary income

554,103.2 536,559.0 528,611.3

-5,213.6 -7,927.4 -8,163.4

12,116.7 11,424.8 10,197.7

-5,474.1 -4,182.3 -5,501.8

144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6

142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7

-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0

2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9

-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7

14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0

147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9

133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9

-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7

1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2

-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4

15,185.9 24,240.4 22,565.7 27,228.1

17,745.2 26,428.1 21,676.0 26,838.3

152,688.6 159,385.4 153,482.3 155,742.6

134,943.4 132,957.3 131,806.3 128,904.3

-3,503.4 -1,838.7 -904.0 -1,917.3

1,905.8 1,330.9 3,143.5 3,817.5

-961.7 -1,679.9 -1,349.8 -1,510.4

2015P Ⅰ Ⅱ

23,454.5 28,863.0

25,258.2 34,858.5

135,480.6 143,437.4

110,222.4 108,578.9

-5,413.0 -4,019.5

4,830.5 -863.3

-1,221.2 -1,112.7

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3,075.6 2,473.1 7,065.6 5,334.6 9,886.4 7,126.4 7,323.2 6,745.6 8,181.6 11,108.9 6,229.9 6,597.3

3,953.0 3,256.4 7,088.6 5,510.6 9,363.1 5,711.6 7,462.2 7,271.4 8,572.1 9,767.8 8,024.8 6,799.4

51,765.7 44,916.0 51,141.6 51,704.7 53,477.3 48,883.9 53,326.3 49,899.2 50,490.3 56,820.8 52,702.3 53,028.8

47,812.7 41,659.6 44,053.0 46,194.1 44,114.2 43,172.3 45,864.1 42,627.8 41,918.2 47,053.0 44,677.5 46,229.4

-1,556.6 -1,144.9 33.6 496.2 -28.7 180.4 -879.0 -869.3 -330.2 405.8 -2,088.9 -717.6

1,169.5 623.3 19.6 -482.0 721.6 1,420.9 1,032.7 665.9 648.0 1,335.7 674.8 1,225.7

-490.3 -261.7 -76.2 -190.2 -169.6 -186.5 -292.7 -322.4 -708.3 -400.4 -380.8 -710.2

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3,323.7 4,537.5 7,324.7 7,163.1 9,119.2 7,958.1 7,881.7 7,235.1 7,448.9 8,883.2 11,322.1 7,022.8

4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,133.5 6,646.6 6,794.4 7,367.3 7,514.3 8,487.1 10,031.4 8,319.8

50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,383.0 50,281.0 53,811.7 48,920.1 50,750.5 51,970.8 50,063.0 53,708.8

46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,249.5 43,634.4 47,017.3 41,552.8 43,236.2 43,483.7 40,031.6 45,389.0

-1,873.7 -1,020.3 -609.4 -1,004.4 -297.7 -536.6 31.0 -694.3 -240.7 -212.6 -164.6 -1,540.1

1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1 2,225.5 1,488.8 1,048.0 606.7 967.6 1,667.5 1,182.4

-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.7 -377.4 -432.5 -485.9 -431.4 -358.9 -212.2 -939.3

2015P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

6,583.0 6,442.2 10,429.3 8,135.7 8,618.1 12,109.2 9,301.7 8,455.6

6,687.0 7,321.2 11,250.0 12,558.0 9,156.2 13,144.3 10,045.9 8,973.9

45,398.8 40,595.3 49,486.5 50,376.1 43,835.5 49,225.8 47,380.6 43,180.9

38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,081.5 37,334.7 34,207.0

-2,384.4 -2,061.6 -967.0 -1,125.0 -397.6 -2,496.9 -1,924.0 -1,337.6

2,900.4 1,401.3 528.8 -2,837.5 293.6 1,680.6 1,275.1 914.6

-620.0 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8 -95.3 -95.3

Exports

Imports

49,406.0 80,568.6 92,687.6

603,509.2 617,127.6 621,298.9

-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1

1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

59

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)

Capital & financial account

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

Financial derivatives

Other investment

Capital transfers & acquisition of nonfinancial assets

Reserve assets

2012 2013 2014

-51,582.4 -80,104.6 -90,383.3

-21,136.2 -15,593.2 -20,659.5

6,747.8 -9,344.5 -33,605.3

2,627.8 4,410.3 3,704.9

-26,637.3 -43,281.1 -21,937.9

-41.7 -27.0 -9.0

-13,184.5 -16,296.1 -17,885.5

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2

-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9

14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5

1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6

-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1

-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8

-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-11,448.7 -19,645.6 -22,675.5 -26,334.8

-3,878.4 -3,397.8 -3,426.8 -4,890.2

-7,285.9 -9,776.5 9,375.4 -1,657.5

1,395.8 -513.6 1,656.3 1,871.8

2,880.2 -10,063.8 -23,611.4 -12,486.1

-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6

-4,560.4 4,106.1 -6,669.0 -9,172.8

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-17177.8 -24,208.1 -22,481.5 -26,515.9

-3,657.7 -7,552.9 -3,908.6 -5,540.3

-13,596.7 -5,867.2 -4,762.4 -9,379.0

892.6 2,083.5 1,531.9 -803.1

6,207.4 -1,701.9 -9,510.4 -16,933.0

-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.2

-7,023.4 -11,169.6 -5,832.0 6,139.5

2015P Ⅰ Ⅱ

-24,799.8 -29,365.0

-5,385.9 -8,161.2

-7,838.4 -6,994.1

41.0 461.4

-4,506.4 -7,369.2

-23.1 -25.5

-7,110.1 -7,301.9

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-2,694.7 -1,707.1 -7,046.9 -2,435.7 -12,288.9 -4,921.0 -9,446.1 -6,236.3 -6,993.1 -10,139.4 -7,433.1 -8,762.3

-802.5 -909.3 -2,166.6 401.3 -2,175.6 -1,623.5 -796.8 -1,157.2 -1,472.8 -340.7 -2,243.9 -2,305.6

-5,964.7 2,149.9 -3,471.1 -2,060.8 -1,642.1 -6,073.6 1,785.8 1,584.1 6,005.5 4,942.8 -1,557.9 -5,042.4

579.6 651.0 165.2 -301.1 719.1 -931.6 431.4 210.0 1,014.9 805.3 466.9 599.6

4,123.7 -1,158.3 -85.2 -1,382.5 -8,189.7 -491.6 -8,821.6 -5,172.4 -9,617.4 -10,754.2 -1,248.6 -483.3

-8.0 -2.9 8.2 -1.6 -11.0 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6

-630.8 -2,440.4 -1,489.2 907.4 -1,000.6 4,199.3 -2,044.9 -1,700.8 -2,923.3 -4,792.6 -2,849.6 -1,530.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -8,132.4 -9,836.9 -5,916.9 -7,802.4 -8,762.2 -6,801.5 -9,915.5 -9,798.9

529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8 -2,056.3 -1,011.5 -749.5 -2,147.6 -2,088.9 -2,098.2 -1,353.2

-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0 -4,218.5 -1,743.7 504.4 -3,523.1 -382.4 -2,835.6 -6,161.0

155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5 690.9 504.1 557.7 470.1 -570.7 -81.8 -150.6

1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 3,950.6 283.1 -338.1 -7,288.1 -1,884.2 -4,007.0 -7,797.4 -5,128.6

-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -4.2

-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7 -826.9 -1,677.4 247.5 2,897.5 2,994.5

2015P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

-8,240.4 -5,538.7 -11,020.7 -10,061.9 -8,810.9 -10,492.2 -10,206.3 -9,116.4

-1,001.5 -1,994.5 -2,389.9 -1,971.3 -1,202.7 -4,987.2 -115.4 -424.7

-3,623.7 -3,001.5 -1,213.2 -138.0 -358.3 -6,497.8 -7,149.3 -2,349.8

-76.2 27.5 89.7 301.9 403.7 -244.2 -959.9 -1,698.0

489.1 -371.2 -4,624.3 -4,851.0 -4,755.5 2,237.3 -2,954.6 -8,525.6

-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5 -29.9 1.1

-4,028.1 -199.0 -2,883.0 -3,403.5 -2,898.1 -1,000.3 972.8 3,881.7

Period

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

60

Statistical Appendices

11. Prices (2010=100)

Period

Consumer Prices Commodities Services

All Items y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Producer prices All Items Commodities

Core

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2012 2013 2014

106.3 107.7 109.0

2.2 1.3 1.3

108.9 110.1 111.1

3.0 1.0 0.9

104.2 105.8 107.4

1.4 1.5 1.6

104.9 106.6 108.8

1.6 1.6 2.0

107.5 105.7 105.2

0.7 -1.6 -0.5

108.9 106.2 104.8

0.2 -2.5 -1.4

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7

3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4

107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0

4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6

103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8

2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3

104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5

3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2

107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8

3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2

109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4

3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9

1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1

109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2

1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9

105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5

1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9

106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4

-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4

106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5

-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8

1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8

110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1

0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0

106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8

1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6

107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3

1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6

105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1

-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1

105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.9

-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.2

0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7

110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.3 111.5

-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8

108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.8 110.0

1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0

110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.5

2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1

101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.9

-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.4

99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.9

-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -6.9

Source: The Bank of Korea

61

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

12. Employment Period

Economically active persons (thousand)

All industry

y-o-y change (%)

Employed persons (thousand) Manufacturing SOC & services

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Unemployment rate (%)

2012 2013 2014

25,501 25,873 26,536

1.6 1.5 2.6

24,681 25,066 25,599

1.8 1.6 2.1

4,105 4,184 4,330

0.3 1.9 3.5

19,033 19,347 19,805

2.4 1.6 2.4

3.2 3.1 3.5

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139

2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0

23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402

2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1

4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183

-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8

18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010

3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9

3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736

1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4

24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962

1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3

4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264

3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0

18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514

1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7

3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270

3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384

2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7

4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406

2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3

19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896

3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0

3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303 27,064 27,129

1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4

25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305 26,141 26,264

1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3

4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528 4,491 4,512

3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.8

19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250 20,153 20,249

1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5

3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2

Source: Statistics Korea

62

Statistical Appendices

13. Financial indicators (period average)

Period

Yields(%) Corporate bonds Treasury bonds (3 years, AA-) (3 years)

Treasury bonds (5 years)

Stock KOSPI(endperiod)

Call rate (1 day)

CDs (91 days)

2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3

2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2

3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4

4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5

2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8

3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9

4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0

1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9

2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3

1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0

2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3

1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5

2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6

2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9

2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7

2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8

1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81

Source: The Bank of Korea

63

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • october 2015

14. Monetary indicators (billion won)

Period 2012 2013 2014

Reserve money y-o-y change (%)

M1

M2

y-o-y change (%)

Lf

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

82,131.1 91,379.4 103,331.5

9.2 11.3 13.1

441,963.6 484,062.9 536,733.4

3.8 9.5 10.9

1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3

5.2 4.8 6.6

2,379,518.7 2,543,299.4 2,721,747.4

7.8 6.9 7.0

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

81,635.4 81,655.3 79,068.0 80,641.8 80,547.7 81,804.0 81,555.7 82,369.1 82,958.7 85,078.6 82,956.5 85,302.7

11.0 8.3 8.3 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.1 8.9 6.4 10.6 8.3 9.6

439,352.9 437,193.9 440,075.4 437,445.3 438,795.3 441,611.0 441,760.6 439,573.2 440,034.3 444,477.8 445,463.9 457,778.9

2.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.4 4.0 3.5 5.5 5.3 5.8

1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4 1,773,172.9 1,777,114.7 1,784,220.5 1,796,981.5 1,807,289.2 1,817,134.9 1,819,290.1 1,822,420.9 1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7

4.8 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.5

2,292,213.5 2,302,065.8 2,341,626.9 2,349,723.2 2,357,701.0 2,377,071.3 2,393,737.7 2,405,239.9 2,415,263.5 2,424,000.4 2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9

6.5 7.2 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.3

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5

5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7

464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9

5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3

1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4

4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3

2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,873.9 2,619,029.5

7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4 105,354.1 107,117.5 106,667.9 110,175.6

14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.6

515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3 548,550.8 551,416.0 562,006.2 577,721.1

10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.4

1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2 2,037,600.8 2,051,149.8 2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8

5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.1

2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,370.7 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5 2,759,390.8 2,776,971.6 2,817,698.0 2,837,910.9

6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4

15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2

579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9

12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3

2,092,223.5 2,109,843.2 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,180,006.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3

8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2

2,857,610.1 2,876,619.9 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,326.9 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1

8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4

Source: The Bank of Korea

64

Statistical Appendices

15. Exchange rates (end-period)

Period

100/ \

US $/ \

Euro/ \

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

2012 2013 2014

1,071.1 1,055.3 1,099.2

-7.1 -1.5 4.2

1,247.5 1,004.7 920.1

-16.0 -19.5 -8.4

1,416.3 1,456.3 1,336.5

-5.2 2.8 -8.2

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1

1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1

1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5

8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0

1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3

-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3

-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5

1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7

-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5

1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3

-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2

-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2

1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1

-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4

1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5

0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5

1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7

921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8

-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8

1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9

-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8

Source: The Bank of Korea

65

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • september 2015

Namiseom Nami Island, or Namiseom, is a tiny half moon-shaped island located in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province. The island was formed when the surrounding area was inundated by the rising North Han River following the construction of the Cheongpyeong Dam in 1944.

Namiseom attracts millions of visitors every year, thanks to its natural beauty and various cultural events taking place there.

Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance_http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy_http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission_http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service_http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission_http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor_http://www.moel.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea_http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea_http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english

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conomic u l l e t i n

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Statistical Appendices