ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
December 2015 eb.kdi.re.kr
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.37 No.12 December 2015
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue 2016 Economic Policies
Economic News Briefing
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
Korea Successfully Issues Yuan-denominated Bonds in China Moody's Upgrades Korea's ratings to Aa2 Korea Tops 2015 ICT Development Index Korea Grows 1.3% in Q3
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Statistical Appendices
Ministry of Strategy and Finance Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro
December 2015
Sejong, 30109 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 263 Namsejong-ro Sejong, 30149 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eb.kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Vol.37 No.12
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
01. External economic situation
04
02. Private consumption
08
03. Facility investment
11
04. Construction investment
13
05. Exports and imports
15
06. Mining and manufacturing production
17
07. Service sector activity
19
08. Employment
21
09. Financial markets
25
9.1 Stock market
25
9.2 Exchange rate
26
9.3 Bond market
27
9.4 Money supply & money market
27
10. Balance of payments
29
11. Prices
31
11.1 Consumer prices
31
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
32
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
35
12.2 Land market
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
contents Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) Jung Moo-kyung (MOSF) Editorial Board Park Joon-Kyu (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF) Kang Ji-Eun (KDI)
35
39
Vol.37 No.12 / December 2015
41 Policy Issue 2016 Economic Policies
47 Economic News Briefing Korea Successfully Issues Yuan-denominated Bonds in China Moody's Upgrades Korea's ratings to Aa2 Won-Yuan Direct Trading Market Successful in First Year Korea-China FTA Takes Effect Government to Expand Opportunities for Young Koreans to Work Overseas Peak Wage System to Be Fully Adopted in the Public Sector Korea and Czech Republic Sign MOU on Nuclear Cooperation External Debt Falls to US $409.1 Billion Korea Tops 2015 ICT Development Index Public Sector Debt Grows at Slower Pace in 2014 Korea Grows 1.3% in Q3 (Preliminary)
53 Statistical Appendices
02
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Overview
01. External economic situation
02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
03
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
OVERVIEW Consumption has continued to improve as retail sales growth hit the highest in 57 months, however, production and investment have yet to pick up due to weak exports. The economy added 348,000 jobs year-on-year in October, backed by strong domestic demand. Youth employment grew at a faster rate from an increase of 91,000 jobs in the previous month to 101,000 jobs. Consumer price inflation hit a 12 month high year-on-year in November, up from 0.9 percent in the previous month to 1.0 percent, due to higher manufactured goods prices pushed up by robust demand and a low base effect from a year ago. Core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products and is more related to demand, remained in the two percent range at 2.4 percent. Mining and manufacturing production fell 1.4 percent month-on-month in October due to weak exports as well as a high base effect from the previous month (up 2.2%). In October, service output and retail sales improved for the fourth consecutive month, rising 0.2 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively, backed by Korea Black Friday and other measures to boost consumption, including sales tax cuts on luxury goods. Facility investment declined month-on-month in October, shifting from a 4.3 percent rise to a 0.8 percent fall, despite strong machinery investment, as transportation equipment investment, which surged in the previous month, dropped. Construction completed fell 7.8 percent from the previous month due to weak civil engineering works. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, up 0.3 points, while the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index increased 0.2 points, staying in positive territory for three months. Exports continued to fall in November amid low petroleum product prices, but at a slower pace compared with the previous month (down 15.9% → 4.7%) helped by increased sales of vessels. In November, market interest rates rose and stock prices fell amid the expectations of the Fed’s December rate hike. The Korean won depreciated against both the US dollar and Japanese yen. Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase month-on-month in November, rising 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. While the economy has been recovering backed by strong consumption, exports remain weak, and external uncertainties as to the Fed’s rate hikes and China’s economic slowdown are posing risks, as well as geopolitical instability following the Paris terror attack.
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
The government will effectively implement the 9 trillion won public sector stimulus package as planned, which will help increase production and investment by bolstering consumption, while renewing efforts to enhance export competitiveness and successfully carry out reform in the four areas of the public, education, labor and financial sectors. The government will closely monitor internal and external economic developments as well as examine uncertainties and their possible impact on domestic financial markets, and will be prepared to make appropriate responses if necessary.
1. External economic situation Even though the US economy has continued to grow, sluggish recoveries in the eurozone and Japan as well as slowdowns in China and other commodity exporting countries have stalled the global economic recovery. Diverging monetary policies between the US and other major economies resulting from the expected Fed rate hikes are posing risks, as well as geopolitical risks following the terror attacks in Paris.
US The US economy grew 2.1 percent (annualized q-o-q, preliminary) in the third quarter and is expected to continue growing considering the year-end shopping season. Industrial production fell 0.2 percent month-on-month in October, and the ISM Manufacturing Index for November dropped to 48.6 due to the strong dollar and weak global demand. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 51.5 (Mar 2015) → 51.5 (Apr) → 52.8 (May) → 53.5 (Jun) → 52.7 (Jul) → 51.1 (Aug) → 50.2 (Sep) → 50.1 (Oct) → 48.6 (Nov)
Retail sales grew 0.1 percent month-on-month in October. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November rose to 91.3, while the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 90.4. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 93.0 (Mar 2015) → 95.9 (Apr) → 90.7 (May) → 96.1 (Jun) → 93.1 (Jul) → 91.9 (Aug) → 87.2 (Sep) → 90.0 (Oct) → 91.3 (Nov) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 101.4 (Mar 2015) → 94.3 (Apr) → 94.6 (May) → 99.8 (Jun) → 90.9 (Jul) → 101.5 (Aug) → 103.0 (Sep) → 97.6 (Oct) → 90.4 (Nov)
04
05
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012
2013
Annual Annual Annual
Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditure - Nonresidential fixed investment - Residential fixed investment Industrial production Retail sales Existing home sales Unemployment rate² Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.2 1.5 9.0 13.5 2.8 4.9 8.9 8.1 2.1
1.5 1.7 3.0 9.5 1.9 3.9 9.0 7.4 1.5
2.4 2.7 6.2 1.8 3.7 3.8 -3.0 6.2 1.6
2014 Q3 4.3 3.5 9.0 3.4 1.0 0.7 3.5 6.1 1.8
Q4 2.1 4.3 0.7 10.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 5.7 1.2
Q1 0.6 1.8 1.6 10.1 -0.1 -1.1 -1.7 5.6 -0.1
Q2 3.9 3.6 4.1 9.3 -0.6 1.7 6.5 5.4 0.0
Q3 2.1 3.0 2.4 7.3 0.6 1.1 3.4 5.2 0.1
2015 Aug 0.1 0.0 -5.0 5.1 0.2
Sep -0.2 0.0 4.7 5.1 0.0
Oct -0.2 0.1 -3.4 5.0 0.2
1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
US GDP growth and industrial production 10 8
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
(%)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
The housing market continued to improve as home prices rose 5.5 percent year-on-year, and new home sales in October increased 10.7 percent compared to the previous month, but existing home sales declined 3.4 percent month-on-month. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 4.9 (Feb 2015) → 4.9 (Mar) → 4.9 (Apr) → 4.9 (May) → 4.9 (Jun) → 4.9 (Jul) → 5.1 (Aug) → 5.5 (Sep) New home sales (m-o-m, %) 5.3 (Jan 2015) → 4.6 (Feb) → -11.0 (Mar) → 4.7 (Apr) → 1.0 (May) → -8.6 (Jun) → 6.6 (Jul) → 2.6 (Aug) → -12.9 (Sep) → 10.7 (Oct)
The unemployment rate for November was 5.0 percent, reaching full employment, while nonfarm payrolls grew by more than 200,000 for the second consecutive month. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 187 (Apr 2015) → 260 (May) → 245 (Jun) → 223 (Jul) → 153 (Aug) → 145 (Sep) → 298 (Oct) → 211 (Nov)
06
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
12
(%)
(thousands)
600 10 400 200
8
0 6 -200 -400
4
-600 2 -800 -1,000
0
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2014.1
2015.1
Unemployment rate (right)
China Retail sales in China continued to improve in October led by automobile sales, while manufacturing PMI and other leading indicators fell amid sluggish production, investment and exports. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 49.8 (Jan 2015) → 49.9 (Feb) → 50.1 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr) → 50.2 (May) → 50.2 (Jun) → 50.0 (Jul) → 49.7 (Aug) → 49.8 (Sep) → 49.8 (Oct) → 49.6 (Nov)
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 18
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
(%)
(%)
70
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
0
4 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
07
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Q4¹ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Real GDP 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.9 Industrial production 10.0 9.7 10.0 8.7 8.9 8.0 7.6 6.4 6.3 5.9 6.1 Fixed asset investment (accumulated) 20.6 19.6 19.6 17.6 17.3 16.1 15.7 13.5 11.4 10.3 10.9 Retail sales 14.3 13.1 13.5 12.0 12.3 11.9 11.7 10.6 10.2 10.7 10.8 Exports 8.3 8.6 7.5 -3.5 5.0 13.0 8.6 4.7 -2.1 -5.9 -5.5 Consumer prices1 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 -1.7 -1.9 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -1.3 -2.7 -4.6 -4.8 -5.7 -5.9 Producer prices1
Sep 5.7 10.3 10.9 -3.7 1.6 -5.9
Oct 5.6 10.2 11.0 -6.9 1.3 -5.9
1. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan The Japanese economy grew 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter backed by strong consumption and investment, and industrial production and retail sales improved in October. Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent year-on-year in October, but consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent, declining for the third consecutive month. (Percentage change from previous period)
2012
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2013 Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 1.8 1.6 -0.2 -0.1 1.1 0.2 -0.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.7 3.8 -2.7 9.5 17.4 4.8 6.6 -0.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 1.5
2014 Q2 Q3 -1.9 -0.3 -3.1 -1.3 -7.2 3.9 0.1 3.2 3.6 3.3
Q4 0.3 0.8 1.0 9.1 2.6
Q1 1.1 1.6 -2.1 9.0 2.3
Q2 -0.1 -1.4 0.2 6.7 0.5
2015 Q3 Aug 0.3 -1.2 -1.2 1.8 0.0 3.7 3.1 0.1 0.2
Sep 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.0
Oct 1.4 1.1 -2.2 0.3
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6
Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0
-5 -2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6 2004.Q1
-25 2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
08
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Eurozone As deflationary pressure persists and economic growth slowed for the second consecutive quarter in the third quarter, the ECB further cut its deposit rate on December 3 and announced an extension of its QE program. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 52.2 (Mar 2015) → 52.0 (Apr) → 52.2 (May) → 52.5 (Jun) → 52.4 (Jul) → 52.3 (Aug) → 52.0 (Sep) → 52.3 (Oct) → 52.8 (Nov) (Percentage change from previous period)
2012
2013
Annual
Annual
Annual
0.9
2014 Q3 0.3
Q4 0.4
Q1 0.5
Q2 0.4
Q3 0.3
2015 Aug -
Sep -
Oct -
Real GDP
-0.8
-0.3
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.7
0.8
-0.3
0.5
1.0
-0.1
0.1
-0.4
-0.3
-
Retail sales
-1.6
-0.8
1.2
0.2
Exports (y-o-y)
7.7
1.1
2.3
2.6
0.7
0.9
0.4
0.6
0.0
-0.1
-
4.1
5.6
8.2
4.4
5.5
0.9
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.5
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3
Source: Eurostat
(%)
(%)
10 8
2
6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -3
-10
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
2. Private consumption Private consumption in the third quarter of 2015 (preliminary GDP) grew 1.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 2.1 percent compared to a year ago.
09
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
(Percentage change from previous period)
Annual
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4¹
Q1¹
2015 Q2¹
Q3¹
1.9
-0.1
0.5
1.1
0.6
1.8
0.4
-0.4
0.8
0.5
0.6
-0.2
1.2
-
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.2
-
2.6
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.7
2.1
Private consumption² (y-o-y)
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption 12 10
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in October grew 3.1 percent month-on-month backed by strong sales of durable goods (up 7.7%), such as automobiles, and semi-durable goods (up 8.1%), such as clothing, while sales of nondurable goods (down 1.6%), such as food, decreased. The index rose 8.3 percent compared with the same period of the previous year.
Retail sales
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
20 (%) 15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.1
2005.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
10
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
Annual
Retail sales
-
2013 Q3 0.8
Q4 0.4
Annual
-
Q1 0.2
2014 Q2 -0.2
Q3 1.3
Q4 0.4
Q1 0.5
Q2 0.6
2015 Q3¹ 1.1
Sep¹ 0.7
Oct¹ 3.1
(y-o-y)
0.7
0.5
1.1
1.7
2.4
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.6
2.9
3.2
5.6
8.3
- Durable goods²
0.3
-0.3
0.2
5.1
3.8
-0.2
1.8
1.3
5.2
-0.4
0.3
-1.0
7.7
· Automobiles
2.1
2.1
-2.1
16.6
9.8
5.3
1.2
6.3
3.9
3.9
1.5
4.7
3.2
- Semi-durable goods³
2.1
0.7
-0.4
-0.6
-1.4
-1.1
4.8
-1.8
-3.5
-0.1
1.4
-1.6
8.1
- Nondurable goods4
0.4
1.5
0.8
0.8
-0.9
0.2
-0.7
1.0
-0.5
1.5
1.5
2.4
-1.6
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Retail sales by type 50
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Durable goods
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
In November, domestic sales of cars remained strong, while sales at department stores and large discount stores as well as gasoline sales decelerated.
(percentage change from same preriod in previous year)
2015 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
15.3
7.1
8.6
14.5
10.3
14.8
13.1
9.8
Department store sales
5.4
7.8
-6.0
5.7
1.2
14.1
17.4
4.1
Large discount store sales
4.1
4.4
-4.4
2.5
-4.8
10.0
1.6
-0.6
Domestic sales of gasoline and diesel
9.6
3.3
1.0
0.7
10.8
10.4
10.0
5.4
Domestic sales of cars
2.8
-0.2
9.4
3.5
14.9
15.5
22.7
16.3
Credit card use
Nov
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries
11
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
3. Facility investment Facility investment (preliminary GDP) rose 1.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and 6.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Facility investment² (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment
Annual
Annual
-0.8 -2.3 3.1
5.8 5.0 7.7
Q1 -1.4 7.2 -3.4 3.7
2014 Q2 1.3 7.7 0.4 3.6
Q3 0.2 4.2 2.0 -3.8
Q4 4.0 4.2 5.6 0.4
Q1¹ 0.2 5.8 -0.7 2.4
2015 Q2¹ 0.5 5.0 -3.9 10.6
Q3¹ 1.8 6.6 2.3 0.9
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Facility investment 40
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
The facility investment index in October fell 0.8 percent month-on-month due to a decrease in transportation equipment investment, despite an increase in machinery investment. The index rose 12.4 percent year-on-year.
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Transportation equipment
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Machinery
12
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual
Facility investment index (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment
-0.8 -2.1 2.8
5.2 3.9 8.8
Q1 -4.0 7.5 -6.1 1.6
2014 Q2 1.7 6.7 0.9 3.6
Q3 -0.9 1.5 -0.8 -1.4
Q4 8.6 5.4 11.7 1.5
Q1 -1.6 8.4 -1.3 -2.4
2015 Q31 4.7 10.0 1.3 12.6
Q2 -1.5 5.2 -5.8 10.2
Sep1 4.3 7.3 -3.4 22.7
Oct1 -0.8 12.4 2.5 -7.8
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
leading indicators, including machinery orders, are improving, while the average manufacturing operation ratio remains low. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 82 (Mar 2015) → 80 (Apr) → 82 (May) → 76 (Jun) → 67 (Jul) → 70 (Aug) → 71 (Sep) → 70 (Oct) → 70 (Nov) → 69 (Dec)
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
(trillion won)
70
(y-o-y, %)
60
9
50 40
8
30
7
20 10
6
0
5
-10 -20
4
-30
3
-40 -50
2 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
2015.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013 Annual Annual
Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Public
6.6
14.8
Q1 18.5
-
-
-2.0
20.5
94.2
184.6
2014 Q2 4.0 -11.3
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3¹
Sep¹
Oct¹
49.4
-6.3
-2.6
15.7
-26.6
5.5
6.0
45.2 -26.0
6.2
1.4
-13.1
7.6
6.4
-45.0 418.5 -27.6
-66.9
61.7
-85.3
34.8
-51.5
- Private
5.1
4.8
4.7
9.1
7.7
-2.0
12.0
13.2
5.3
4.1
13.0
Machinery imports
1.1
5.8
2.5
11.9
1.7
7.0
8.5
-1.1
2.3
0.0
8.9
Average manufacturing operation ratio
76.5
76.1
77.1
76.1
76.0
75.1
74.4
74.2
74.7
75.2
73.8
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-0.9
-1.5
-0.7
-1.1
-0.5
-3.5
-2.5
-2.7
-1.1
1.9
1.1
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
13
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
4. Construction investment Construction investment in the third quarter of 2015 (preliminary GDP) rose 5.0 percent quarter-on-quarter and 5.7 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Construction investment² (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
1.0
Q1 5.3
2014 Q2 0.5
Q3 0.9
-
-
4.1
0.2
2.3
-1.5
11.2 -2.5
4.4 -4.4
3.2 8.9
3.1 -3.8
2.4 -1.8
-7.3 -8.8
Annual
Annual
5.5
2015 Q2¹ 1.6
Q3¹ 5.0
0.6
1.6
5.7
4.5 12.7
4.6 -3.6
7.5 0.1
Q4 -7.8
Q1¹ 7.4
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction investment 15
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
The value of construction completed (constant) in October fell 7.8 percent month-on-month as both building construction and civil engineering works declined. The index rose 3.9 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual Construction completed (constant) 10.2 -0.8 (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works 1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Q1 1.0
2014 Q2 -0.4
Q3 -2.7
Q4 -3.9
Q1 4.8
Q2 -2.7
2015 Q31 7.6
Sep1 5.4
Oct1 -7.8
-
-
6.6
0.1
-1.9
-5.9
-2.0
-3.9
6.0
13.9
3.9
15.1
7.8
4.8
2.0
-3.8
-3.7
5.0
-1.5
10.6
4.1
-2.3
4.4
-12.3
-4.6
-4.1
-0.8
-4.2
4.5
-4.7
2.4
7.7
-10.7
14
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40
(y-o-y, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Civil engineering works
Construction investment is projected to increase considering the increased supply of new apartments and a rise in construction orders. New apartment supply (thousands, monthly average, Real Estate 114) 31 (H1 2015) → 46 (Q3) → 58 (Oct) → 76 (Nov) Domestic shipments of cement (million tons) 4.33 (May 2015) → 4.60 (Jun) → 4.08 (Jul) → 3.97 (Aug) → 4.03 (Sep) → 4.38 (Oct) → 4.18 (Nov)
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300
(y-o-y, %)
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2004.1
2005.1
Construction orders
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Building permit area
15
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013 Annual Annual Construction orders (current value)
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015 Q31
Sep1
Oct1
-12.9
15.3
15.5
25.4
42.8
-7.5
55.4
50.0
49.8
124.8
27.5
-
-
-5.1
12.4
22.0
-29.0
50.9
13.4
18.6
70.8
-50.8
- Building construction
-10.2
24.5
11.2
45.6
61.8
-5.0
87.7
49.9
40.3
106.2
38.3
- Civil engineering works
-18.2
-4.4
24.0
-11.5
-6.2
-13.1
-1.5
50.0
92.2
183.1
-6.5
-7.3
11.2
18.4
21.6
14.7
-4.6
11.0
25.1
57.0
60.6
40.9
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
Building permits²
1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
5. Exports and imports Exports in November declined 4.7 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $44.43 billion. Exports fell at a slower pace in November compared with the previous month, down from 15.9 percent to 4.7 percent, helped by a base effect from a year ago (down US $5 billion, m-o-m) and an increase in vessel exports (US $1.7 billion → US $5.7 billion). Most major exports declined, except for vessels and mobile phones. By region, shipments to most regions excluding the EU fell. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 133.7 (vessels), 23.6 (mobile phones), -7.6 (automobiles), -9.6 (semiconductors), -24.0 (petrochemicals), -26.6 (steel), -36.3 (oil products) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 52.5 (EU), -4.9 (ASEAN countries), -6.8 (China), -12.4 (US), -18.9 (Japan), -22.5 (Latin America), -24.2 (Middle East)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, rose to US $1.93 billion in November. Average daily exports (US $ billion) 1.92 (Jan 2015) → 2.18 (Feb) → 1.95 (Mar) → 1.93 (Apr) → 2.06 (May) → 1.98 (Jun) → 1.83 (Jul) → 1.78 (Aug) → 2.02 (Sep) → 1.89 (Oct) → 1.93 (Nov)
(US $ billion)
2013
2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 559.63 572.66 137.53 145.67 141.76 147.70 Annual Annual
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
2015 Nov Q1 Q2 Q3 46.61 133.42 135.12 128.25
Oct 43.43
Nov1 44.43
2.1
2.3
1.6
3.2
3.6
0.9
-2.7
-3.0
-7.2
-9.5
-15.9
-4.7
2.05
2.11
2.07
2.19
2.07
2.13
2.07
2.01
1.99
1.88
1.89
1.93
16
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Exports by item 160 140
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Export growth rate
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Semiconductors
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Automobiles
Steel
Imports in November fell 17.6 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $34.07 billion. Imports declined 17.6 percent year-on-year, a faster pace than 16.6 percent of the previous month, as oil prices continued to fall, and capital goods imports decreased. Import growth by category (Oct → Nov, y-o-y, %) -32.2 → -30.1 (commodities), 9.0 → -3.5 (capital goods), -5.0 → 3.0 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)
2013
2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct 515.59 525.51 132.37 130.96 132.84 129.35 41.34 111.81 110.49 108.28 36.77
Annual Annual
Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
-0.8 1.89
1.9 1.94
2.0 1.99
3.3 1.97
5.4 1.94
-2.8 1.86
-4.1 1.84
-15.5 1.68
-15.6 1.62
-18.5 1.58
-16.6 1.60
Nov1 34.07 -17.6 1.48
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by item 100 80
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Import growth rate
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Commodities
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Capital goods
17
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
Exports and imports 60
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(US $ billion)
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Trade balance
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Exports
Imports
The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $10.36 billion in November, staying in the black for the 46th consecutive month, and the surplus increased compared with the previous month. (US $ billion)
2013 Trade balance
2014
2015
Annual Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Q1
Q2
Q3
Oct
Nov1
44.05
5.17
14.72
8.92
18.35
5.26
21.61
24.62
19.97
6.65
10.36
47.15
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production fell 1.4 percent month-on-month in October due to decreases in chemical products and automobiles, despite processed metals and communications equipment being strong. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index increased 1.5 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of processed metals (up 3.6%), communications equipment (up 7.8%) and other transportation equipment (up 3.9%) rose, while chemical products (down 4.0%), automobiles (down 2.8%) and groceries (down 4.9%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 40.3%), automobiles (up 7.5%) and refined petroleum (up 5.8%) rose, while machinery (down 10.0%), other transportation equipment (down 12.2%) and electrical equipment (down 5.4%) declined.
18
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2015.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014 Q2 -0.6
Q3 0.1
Q4 -0.9
Q1 -0.1
Q2 -0.9
2015 Q3¹ Sep¹ Oct¹ 1.6 2.2 -1.4
1.2
-1.9
-0.9
-1.5
-0.2
Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
Q1 -0.3
(y-o-y)
0.7
0.0
0.7
0.5
Annual Annual
Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic consumption
-0.8
0.3
- Exports
2.6
-0.4
Inventory³
4.4
-1.8
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)
76.5 1.6
2.8
1.5 -1.2
-
-
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
-1.0
0.0
-1.0
1.5
2.2
0.7
0.1
0.7
0.4
1.2
-1.9
-1.0
-1.4
-0.4
2.8
1.9
0.7
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.6
-0.7
1.9
3.3
-1.4
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-0.8
0.5
0.5
0.9
2.5
-1.3
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
1.1
-2.0
-2.1
3.1
4.1
-1.6
-0.3
0.6
0.9
-2.2
3.5
3.3
2.9
1.6
-2.1
76.1
77.1
76.1
76.0
75.1
74.4
74.2
74.7
75.2
73.8
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
0.7
0.9
0.8
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing and electricity & gas industry 3. End-period
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 0.8 percentage points month-on-month to 126.8 percent as inventories dropped 2.1 percent, and shipments declined 1.4 percent. Inventories of electronic parts (up 9.8%), medical, precision & optical instruments (up 8.4%) and electrical equipment (up 2.6%) rose, while communications equipment (down 39.8%), clothing and furs (down 16.0%) and groceries (down 10.6%) declined. Shipments of communications equipment (up 9.9%), processed metals (up 3.4%) and primary metals (up 1.6%) rose, while semiconductors (down 7.4%), electronic parts (down 9.1%) and electrical equipment (down 3.9%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 1.4 percentage points month-on-month to 73.8 percent.
19
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
Shipment and inventory 10 8
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(m-o-m, %)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Shipment growth
Inventory growth
Average manufacturing operation ratio 100
2015.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
90
80
70
60
50 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to improve in November as consumption has been boosted by November shopping events as well as sales tax cuts on luxury items. However, weak exports and external uncertainties may offset these positive factors.
7. Service sector activity Service output in October rose 0.2 percent month-on-month, led by wholesale & retail, transportation services and real estate & renting. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 3.1 percent. Wholesale & retail (up 1.9%, m-o-m), transportation services (up 0.7%, m-o-m) and hotels & restaurants (up 0.1%, m-o-m) were up for the fourth consecutive month.
20
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Meanwhile, financial & insurance services (down 1.0%, m-o-m), real estate & renting (up 2.1%, m-o-m) and education services (up 2.8%, m-o-m) have been fluctuating monthly.
Service sector activity 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2015.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014 Weight Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Service activity index
Q3
Q4
Q1
2015 Q2 Q31 Sep1 Oct1
100.0
1.5
0.8
2.2
0.7 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.5 -0.1 1.4 1.1 0.2
21.6
0.1
0.8
-0.2
-0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.9
- Transportation services
8.5
1.0
-0.3
1.7
0.8 0.7 0.6 2.6 0.1 -3.2 1.7 0.6 0.7
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.2 -1.5 2.6 -1.2 -0.5 -3.3 1.8 2.5 0.1
- Publishing & communications services
8.4
2.2
3.0
1.8
-1.2 0.9 -0.2 0.1 -2.7 -0.6 4.5 1.0 -1.0
14.7
0.5
0.5
5.2
2.5 1.2 2.1 2.9 2.7 1.9 1.6 0.4 -1.0
- Real estate & renting
5.3
2.5
2.7
6.2
0.2 4.4 0.0 3.6 -2.1 7.3 0.7 -2.7 2.1
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
3.3
0.4
2.3
0.1 2.6 -1.1 2.0 -2.9 -0.3 2.4 4.2 -5.0
- Business services
3.3
2.1
0.4
2.4
1.5 -0.6 0.3 1.0 1.9 0.5 -0.8 0.4 2.1
- Education services
10.9
0.8
0.3
1.3
1.6 -1.9 1.1 0.0 0.8 -0.8 0.1 -1.9 2.8
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
5.2
1.7
6.3
1.4 1.0 1.4 2.7 2.1 -0.9 1.6 4.1 -0.7
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.7
-0.4
-1.1
0.0 -4.7 6.1 -2.1 2.6 -4.2 1.4 -0.5 3.0
- Membership organizations & personal services
3.6
6.1
-1.0
-0.6
1.1 -1.0 0.5 -3.8 1.8 2.1 0.1 -1.6 -3.6
- Sewerage & waste management
0.6
-0.4
1.2
1.0
0.2 -1.4 1.6 1.1 1.8 3.2 6.1 1.1 -9.1
- Wholesale & retail
- Financial & insurance services
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
21
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
October 2015 service output by business 14
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
12 10 8 6 4
Financial & insurance services
Transportation services
Total index
Health & social welfare services Professional, scientific & technical services
Hotels & restaurants
2
Education services
Membership organizations & personal services
0 -2
Publishing & communications services
Wholesale & retail
-4 -6
Real estate & renting
Business services
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
Sewerage & waste management
-8 -10 -12
In November, sales in department stores and large discount stores as well as automobile sales increased at a slower pace, and the volume of average daily stock transactions decreased. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 7.2 (Jan 2015) → 7.5 (Feb) → 8.1 (Mar) → 10.9 (Apr) → 9.8 (May) → 10.1 (Jun) → 11.2 (Jul) → 8.9 (Aug) → 8.1 (Sep) → 8.7 (Oct) → 8.3 (Nov)
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in October increased by 348,000 from a year earlier to 26,300,000, and the employment rate rose 0.5 percentage points to 66.2 percent. By industry, manufacturing and services continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to drive employment growth, and temporary and daily workers also kept increasing, while self-employed workers decreased.
Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,000
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(thousands)
(millions)
800
27 26
600 25 400 24 200 23
0
22
-200 -400 2004.1
21 2005.1
2006.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
22
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Original data
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
Employment by industry
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) (%)
100
80
71.1
71.2
70.6
69.7
69.4
69.3
69.6
69.7
69.6
69.5
69.8
70.8
71.5
71.4
70.8
70.2
70.0
69.9
69.9
70.2
70.2
70.1
6.8
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.9
17.3
17.2
17.0
16.7
16.8
16.8
16.8
16.7
16.8
16.8
16.8
17.4
17.6
17.6
17.3
17.2
17.0
17.1
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.4
4.5 0 4.4 2014.1 2
5.3
6.1
6.4
6.5
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
5.8
4.2
3.9
4.1
4.9
5.5
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2015.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
60
40
20
Services
Construction
Manufacturing
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100
(%)
80
60
40
20
0
Unpaid family workers
Self-employed workers
Daily workers
Temporary workers
Permanent workers
23
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1
Number of employed (millions)
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Oct
Q1
2015 Q3 Sep
Q2
Oct
24.24 24.68 25.07 25.60 24.91 25.79 25.93 25.77 25.95 25.27 26.10 26.24 26.26 26.30
Employment rate (%)
59.1 59.4 59.5 60.2 58.8 60.8 60.9 60.4 60.9 59.0 60.7 60.9 60.9 60.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
59.1 59.4 59.5 60.2 60.4 59.9 60.3 60.3 60.2 60.5 59.9 60.3 60.4 60.3
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
415
437
386
533
729
464
517
422
406
354
308
310
347
348
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
440
451
394
601
717
518
638
531
552
441
435
419
467
472
- Manufacturing
63
14
79
146
123
136
194
129
142
139
147
164
166
191
- Construction
-2
22
-19
42
27
12
57
72
47
72
44
11
-1
-27
- Services
386
416
318
424
570
387
403
336
372
222
235
194
292
292
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-25
-14
-8
-68
12
- Wage workers
427
315
483
548
· Permanent workers
575
436
615
· Temporary workers
-78
-2
· Daily workers
-54 -121 -109 -146
-87 -127 -115 -120 -124
711
485
519
476
456
442
422
521
550
583
443
606
478
333
355
361
355
332
505
545
565
-96
140
74
118
226
141
147
82
3
1
32
101
-70 -120
-37
-35
31 -111
-40
-20
-51
4
87
15
-27
-82
-11
121
-97
-15
19
-22
-3
-54
-50
-88 -114 -211 -203 -236
1
124
-67
1
-7
-14
19
7
17
-49
-37 -136 -149 -159
- Male
238
234
186
266
373
228
268
196
202
141
145
111
118
137
- Female
177
203
200
267
357
236
249
226
203
213
163
199
229
211
- 15 to 29
-35
-36
-50
77
97
53
102
56
77
32
90
50
91
101
- 30 to 39
-47
-31
-21
-21
-6
-42
-7
-29
-23
-1
-56
-60
-67
-47
- 40 to 49
57
11
22
38
99
34
15
4
0
-47
-15
1
17
33
- 50 to 59
291
270
254
239
323
227
215
190
169
177
138
145
134
125
- 60 or more
149
222
181
200
218
192
192
201
183
192
150
174
172
136
- Nonwage workers · Self-employed workers
Source: Statistics Korea
Unemployment rate 6
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
24
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
The number of unemployed persons in October was down 19,000 year-on-year to 839,000, and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.1 percent from a year earlier. The unemployment rate slid in all age groups except those in their 40s and 60s or more.
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual
2014 Q2 Q3
Q1
Q4
Oct
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3 Sep
Number of unemployed (thousands)
855
820
807
937
1,031 977
884
854
858 1,089 1,042 929
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
-65
-35
-13
137
125 165
107
121
135
- Male
-48
-26
-6
49
40
62
37
59
63
25
42
- Female
-17
-9
-7
80
84 103
70
63
71
32
23
58
65
Oct
866
839
16
-19
31
9
-22
14
7
3
45
Unemployment rate (%)
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.5
4.0
3.7
3.3
3.2
3.2
4.1
3.8
3.4
3.2
3.1
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
-15 to 29
7.6
7.5
8.0
9.0
9.8
9.4
8.6
8.3
8.0
10.3
9.9
8.4
7.9
7.4
- 30 to 39
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.0
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.0
3.1
2.9
- 40 to 49
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
- 50 to 59
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.0
- 60 or more
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.3
4.4
1.9
1.5
1.6
1.8
4.1
2.2
2.0
1.8
2.2
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in October was up 176,000 from a year earlier to 16,010,000, while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged year-on-year at 62.9 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 124,000, y-o-y) and childcare (down 14,000, y-o-y) decreased, while those due to rest (up 127,000, y-o-y) increased.
Labor force participation rate 65
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
25
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1
Economically inactive population (millions)
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Oct
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3 Sep
Oct
15.95 16.08 16.22 15.98 16.40 15.69 15.76 16.07 15.84 16.47 15.84 15.92 15.99 16.01
Labor force participation rate (%)
61.1
61.3
61.5
62.4 61.3 63.1 63.0 62.4 62.9 61.5 63.2 63.0 62.9 62.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
61.1
61.3
61.5
62.4 62.6 62.2 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.8 62.3 62.5 62.6 62.4
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
112
128
141 -246 -433 -226 -222 -101 -113
- Childcare - Housework
-5 101
-2 123
1 -39 -29 -57 -3 -131 -230 -127
- Education
-51
-12
77
-81
- Old age - Rest
-45 182
148 -53
54 -7
93 81 -92 -197
-76
72
150
162
146
176
41 -91
50 -41
3 -19
-26 4
-14 -48
-41 -99
-31 -67
-50 -37
-68 -109
-72
-66 -141 -213 -112
-87 -124
113 -90
89 -15
87 -32
107 134
91 -65
68 154
95 151
103 123
180 127
Source: Statistics Korea
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI fell 1.8 percent in November, from 2,030 points to 1,992 points, due to net selling by foreign investors and worries over the US rate hike in December. The KOSDAQ rose 0.1 percent from 684 points to 688 points propelled by a higher NASDAQ index and net buying by foreign investors.
Stock prices 2,200 (monthly average) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
KOSPI
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
KOSDAQ
26
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Closing rate)
Oct 2015
KOSPI Nov 2015
Oct 2015
KOSDAQ Nov 2015
Change1
Change1
Stock price index (points)
2,029.5
1,992.0
-37.5 (-1.8%)
683.6
688.3
4.7 (0.1%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,284.9
1,263.7
-21.2 (-1.6%)
193.9
199.4
5.5 (2.8%)
5.3
4.7
-0.6 (-11.3%)
3.3
3.6
0.3 (9.1%)
32.9
32.4
-0.5 (-1.5%)
9.9
10.4
0.5 (5.1%)
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p) 1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate rose in November to close the month at 1,158 won as expectations of a Fed rate hike were boosted by improved labor market indicators in the US, and investors’ risk aversion increased due to the volatile stock markets in China. The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose to around 943 won amid the strong dollar, as the dollar-won exchange rate rose at a faster pace than the dollar-yen exchange rate due to heightened risk aversion among investors.
(Closing rate)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Dec
Oct
2015 Nov
Change1
Dollar-Won
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,099.3
1,140.1
1,158.1
-1.6
100 Yen-Won
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
913.0
941.0
943.7
-0.3
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
Foreign exchange rates 1,800
(month-end, \)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600 2004.1
2005.1
Dollar-Won
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
100 Yen-Won
27
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields rose from 1.66 percent at the end of October to 1.77 percent at the end of November. Treasury bond yields rose as expectations over a US rate hike by year-end were boosted due to better US economic indicators.
Interest rates 10
Source: The Bank of Korea
(monthly average, yearly, %)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2015.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(Closing rate, %)
Call rate (1 day) CD (91 days) Treasury bonds (3 yrs) Corporate bonds (3 yrs) Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
2009 Dec 2.01 2.88 4.44 5.56 4.98
2010 Dec 2.51 2.80 3.38 4.27 4.08
2011 Dec 3.29 3.55 3.34 4.21 3.46
2012 Dec 2.77 2.89 2.82 3.29 2.97
2013 Dec 2.52 2.66 2.86 3.29 3.23
2014 Dec 2.03 2.13 2.10 2.43 2.28
2015 Sep 1.49 1.59 1.57 1.89 1.72
Oct 1.50 1.57 1.66 2.00 1.79
Nov 1.50 1.66 1.77 2.17 1.96
Change1 9 11 17 17
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in September rose 9.6 percent from a year earlier. Private sector credit expanded led by banks, and money supply from the overseas sector also increased due to the current account surplus. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
M1² M2 Lf³
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
16.3 10.3 7.9
11.8 8.7 8.2
6.6 4.2 5.3
3.8 5.2 7.8
9.5 4.8 6.9
10.9 6.6 7.0
1. Balance at end September 2015, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
2015 Jul 21.0 9.3 10.6
Aug 21.3 9.2 10.5
Sep 21.3 9.6 10.4
Sep1 665.7 2,234.3 3,049.8
28
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Reserve money
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
M1
Lf
Bank deposits rose in October led by time deposits (-3.8 trillion won → 8.9 trillion won) and CDs. Banks made efforts to increase time deposits to secure funds for loans and issued more CDs to increase their liquidity ratio by the end of the year. Asset management company (AMC) deposits swelled from the previous month, led by equity funds and fixed-income funds.
Deposits in financial institutions 60
Source: The Bank of Korea
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)
Bank deposits AMC deposits 1. Balance at end October 2015
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
2014
54.8 -27.6
36.9 -16.7
58.9 -16.6
37.0 18.8
41.0 17.7
115.4 47.0
2015 Dec 52.0 -8.7
Aug 14.4 1.7
Sep 14.4 -7.5
Oct 11.9 6.4
Oct1 1,364.9 430.5
29
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in October posted a surplus of US $8.96 billion, staying in the black for 44 consecutive months, and surpluses reached US $87.89 billion in the Jan-Oct period. The goods account surplus fell to US $10.74 billion in October from US $12.04 billion in the previous month, despite a net export increase via intermediaries (US $0.87 billion → US $1.06 billion) as capital goods imports increased. Goods exports (US $ billion) 45.24 (Sep 2015) →47.44 (Oct) Goods imports (US $ billion) 33.20 (Sep 2015) → 36.70 (Oct) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) -15.9 (total), 45.0 (mobile phones), -1.9 (automobiles), -7.5 (semiconductors), -27.4 (steel), -45.4 (oil products) Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -16.6 (total), -32.2 (commodities), 9.0 (capital goods), -5.0 (consumer goods)
Current account balance 15
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5
0
-5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Goods account
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Services account
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Current account
The services account deficit edged up from US $1.73 billion to US $1.99 billion due to expanded deficits in the travel account and the intellectual property rights account. Services account (US $ billion, Sep → Oct) -0.46 → -0.45 (manufacturing), 0.11 → 0.02 (transportation), -0.71 → -0.85 (travel), 0.71 → 0.79 (construction), -0.26 → -0.68 (intellectual property rights), -1.11 → -0.94 (other businesses)
The primary income account surplus inched down from US $0.74 billion to US $0.59 billion due to a decline in interest income. The secondary income account deficit dropped from US $0.50 billion to US $0.38 billion.
30
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(US $ billion)
2013 Current account
81.15
2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 84.37 13.15 24.11 20.66 26.45
- Goods balance
82.78
88.89 17.60 25.18 20.98 25.14
7.98 25.26 34.86 30.97 12.04 10.74
- Services balance
-6.50
-4.02
-0.40
0.13
Annual Annual
-2.99
-0.08
-0.54
2015 Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep 8.74 22.46 28.17 28.30 10.54 -5.41
-4.02 -4.70
- Primary income balance
9.06
4.49
-0.64
0.69
1.48
2.95
0.89
3.83
-1.56
- Secondary income balance
-4.19
-4.98
-0.82
-1.67
-1.25
-1.24 -0.26
-1.22
-1.11 -0.70
2.73
Oct1 8.96
-1.73 -1.99 0.74
0.59
-0.50 -0.38
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in October posted a net outflow of US $11.10 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion) -10.74 (Mar 2015) → -9.81 (Apr) → -8.56 (May) → -10.33 (Jun) → -10.05 (Jul) → -9.05 (Aug) → -10.54 (Sep) → -11.10 (Oct)
FDI net outflows declined from US $4.61 billion to US $3.50 billion. Net outflows of portfolio investment rose from US $4.28 billion to US $7.10 billion as Korean investment in overseas shares increased. Financial derivatives investment reversed its course, going from net outflows of US $1.49 billion to net inflows of US $0.81 billion, while net inflows of other investment expanded from US $0.40 billion to US $0.93 billion due to withdrawals of offshore deposits, despite expanded loans by financial institutions. The current account surplus is expected to grow month-on-month in November considering US $10.36 billion worth of net exports.
Capital & financial account balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
15 (US $ billion) 10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Portfolio investment
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Financial derivatives
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Capital & financial account
31
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices rose 1.0 percent year-on-year in November, a faster pace than 0.9 percent of the previous month, but edged down 0.1 percent month-on-month.
Consumer price inflation 7
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Consumer price inflation Month-on-Month Year-on-Year
Mar 0.0 0.4
(%)
Apr 0.1 0.4
May 0.3 0.5
Jun 0.0 0.7
2015 Jul 0.2 0.7
Aug 0.2 0.7
Sep -0.2 0.6
Oct 0.0 0.9
Nov -0.1 1.0
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer prices increased year-on-year due to a low base effect from a year ago when consumer prices fell 0.2 percent month-on-month and as strong domestic demand pushed up manufactured goods prices. Specifically, the upturn in durable goods prices (-0.2% → 0.4%) drove manufactured product prices to reverse their downward course for the first time since January 2015.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Public Housing Public Personal livestock Manufactured Total Agricultural, Oil products Durable goods utilities rents services services & fishery products products Oct (y-o-y, %) 0.9 3.0 -0.3 -18.6 -0.2 -7.2 2.8 2.0 2.0 Nov (y-o-y, %) 1.0 1.7 0.0 -17.5 0.4 -7.1 2.8 2.0 2.1 - Contribution (%p) 0.1 0.0 -0.9 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7
32
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Core inflation stayed in the 2 percent range. Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products rose 2.4 percent year-on-year, and consumer prices excluding food and energy were up 2.7 percent.
Prices 16
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(y-o-y, %)
12
8
4
0
-4 -8 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Consumer price inflation
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Core inflation
2015.1
Producer price inflation
(percentage change from same period in previous year)
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products
Mar 2.1
Apr 2.0
May 2.1
Jun 2.0
2015 Jul 2.0
Aug 2.1
Sep 2.1
Oct 2.3
Nov 2.4
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
Source: Statistics Korea
The expected annual inflation stayed in the mid-2 percent range. Expected inflation (%, Bank of Korea) 2.5 (Mar 2015) → 2.5 (Apr) → 2.5 (May) → 2.5 (Jun) → 2.6 (Jul) → 2.5 (Aug) → 2.5 (Sep) → 2.5 (Oct) → 2.5 (Nov)
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices fell in November as a global oil supply glut continued amid a strong dollar. US Dollar Index (USDX)* (Mar 1973 = 100) 97.2 (5th week Oct) → 97.8 (1st week Nov) → 99.0 (2nd week) → 99.4 (3rd week) → 99.8 (4th week) *An index of the US dollar value relative to 6 currencies including euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, krona and swiss franc.
Dubai crude prices were down as OPEC member countries exceeded their collective crude oil production target of 30 million barrels per day for the 16th consecutive month. In addition, the Iranian government has proposed
33
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
around 50 oil and gas projects to lure foreign investors, which are expected to attract a total of US $185 billion by 2020 according to the Financial Times and Reuters.
International oil prices 160
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
(US $/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Dubai crude
WTI
(US $/barrel, period average)
2013 Annual
Annual
Dubai crude
105.2
96.6
Q1 104.4
2014 Q2 106.1
Brent crude
108.7
99.1
108.1
109.7
102.7
76.7
55.1
63.5
51.3
49.3
45.9
WTI crude
98.0
93.1
98.7
103.0
97.2
73.4
48.6
58.0
46.5
46.3
42.9
Q3 101.6
Q4 74.6
Q1 51.9
Q2 60.5
2015 Q3 49.9
Oct 45.8
Nov 41.6
Source: Korea PDS
Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall amid decreasing international gasoline prices. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,485.7 (1st week Nov) → 1,479.6 (2nd week) → 1,473.3 (3rd week) → 1,464.5 (4th week) International gasoline prices (US $/barrel) 59.0 (3rd week Oct) → 58.3 (4th week) → 58.8 (1st week Nov) → 57.0 (2nd week) Dollar-won exchange rate (won) 1,130.8 (3rd week Oct) → 1,133.6 (4th week) → 1,135.7 (1st week Nov) → 1,152.0 (2nd week) (Won/liter, period average)
2013
Gasoline prices
2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov 1,924.5 1,827.6 1,882.7 1,868.9 1,837.8 1,721.1 1,485.4 1,543.2 1,544.0 1,498.7 1,473.6
Diesel prices
1,729.6 1,637.0 1,699.9 1,680.0 1,641.4 1,526.7 1,312.6 1,344.2 1,308.7 1,251.9 1,235.0
Annual
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Annual
34
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
160
(thousand won/B)
(US $/B)
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20 2004.1
20 2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
International grain prices fell in November due to favorable weather conditions and a better outlook for global inventories. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its global grain inventories outlook for 2015-2016 (up 4.3%, m-o-m), citing robust grain production in the EU and a demand slowdown in China. International grain price increases in November (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -4.4 (corn), -2.3 (wheat), -2.5 (soybean)
Nonferrous metal prices were down in November due to concerns over a demand slowdown in major economies and expected supply increases. The total value of orders German manufacturers received in September decreased 1.7 percent month-on-month, and Codelco, the world’s largest copper miner, announced its plan to cut 26 percent of premiums on copper shipments to China from 2016.
International commodity prices
Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 4000
470 430
3000
390 350
2000
310 270
1000
230 190
0
150 2004.1
CRB (left)
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Reuters index (right)
35
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
Nonferrous metal price increases in November (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -3.8 (aluminum), -7.9 (copper), -8.4 (zinc), -7.0 (tin)
(Period average)
2013 Annual Annual
Reuters Index1 (sep 18,1931=100)
2,774
2,523
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3
Oct
Nov
2,600
2,608
2,491
2,397
2,368
2,394
2,287
2,279
2,285
1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Apartment prices rose 0.3 percent month-on-month nationwide in November. Apartment prices were up 0.4 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.5%) and Incheon (up 0.2%). Apartment prices rose 0.3 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Apartment price increases in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.5), Daegu (0.5), Gwangju (0.5), Daejeon (0.1), Ulsan (0.3)
Apartment sales prices by region 3
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1 2009.1
7
Nationwide
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
36
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Nationwide apartment prices 2010
2011
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012
2013
2014
1.9 -1.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.4
6.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.0 -3.0 -2.9 -3.5 -2.3
0.3 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.7
1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.1
Oct Annual Jun 0.2 3.4 0.4 0.3 4.2 0.5 0.2 4.3 0.5 0.3 4.9 0.6 0.2 3.7 0.4
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.9
0.2
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
2.6
0.3
Jul 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
2015 Aug 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Sep 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Oct 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Nov 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices rose 0.4 percent month-on-month nationwide in November, continuing last month’s growth trend. Rental prices rose 0.6 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.3 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.9), Seocho (0.4), Songpa (0.6), Gangdong (0.4), Seongdong (1.0), Nowon (1.2)
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2010
2011
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012
2013
2014
7.1 6.3 6.4 7.6 5.1
12.3 11.0 10.8 11.1 10.6
3.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.8
4.7 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.4
3.4 4.7 3.6 3.3 3.8
Oct Annual Jun 0.3 4.6 0.5 0.4 6.7 0.7 0.4 6.7 0.7 0.4 7.4 0.8 0.4 6.0 0.5
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
2.2
0.2
2.6
2013.1
7
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
0.3
Jul 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2
2015 Aug Sep 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.2
0.3
7
2015.1
Oct 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8
Nov 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
0.2
0.3
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3
(m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1
-2 2009.1
Nationwide
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2014.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
37
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
Apartment sales transactions climbed 23.4 percent from 86,152 transactions in September to 106,274 transactions in October and were down 2.8 percent from a year ago (109,375).
Apartment sales transactions 2010
2011
2012
(Thousands)
2013
2014
2015
Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Nationwide
67
82
61
71
84
109
91
91
79
79
112 120 110 110 111
94
86
106
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Monthly apartment transaction volume 160
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
(thousands)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
Nationwide
7
2012.1
7
2013.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
12.2 Land market Land prices nationwide rose 0.22 percent month-on-month in October. Land prices increased 0.21 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.24%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.18%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.17 (Mar 2015) → 0.19 (Apr) → 0.17 (May) → 0.19 (Jun) → 0.20 (Jul) → 0.18 (Aug) → 0.18 (Sep) → 0.21 (Oct)
Land prices increased 0.25 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Daegu (up 0.37%), Daejeon (up 0.36%), Busan (up 0.26%) and Jeju (up 0.50%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.22 (Mar 2015) → 0.21 (Apr) → 0.20 (May) → 0.25 (Jun) → 0.24 (Jul) → 0.21 (Aug) → 0.22 (Sep) → 0.25 (Oct)
38
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Land prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014
2015 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct 0.49 0.53 1.90 0.48 0.59 0.60 0.19 0.19 0.22
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3
Nationwide
0.96
1.05
1.17
0.96
1.14
1.96
Seoul Gyeonggi Incheon
1.40 1.22 1.99
0.53 1.49 1.43
0.97 1.47 0.66
0.38 1.04 0.46
1.21 0.91 0.87
2.66 0.69 0.67 2.20 0.57 0.69 0.69 0.22 0.22 0.24 1.24 0.27 0.33 1.39 0.35 0.41 0.43 0.13 0.14 0.18 1.35 0.32 0.40 1.63 0.37 0.53 0.54 0.19 0.17 0.18
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
There were 263,000 land transactions in October, up 14.9 percent from the previous month and up 1.9 percent from a year ago (258,000). Land transactions increased in Seoul (up 14.8%, m-o-m), Busan (up 19.7%, m-o-m), Daejeon (up 42.0%, m-o-m), and South Gyeongsang Province (up 28.9%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 35.6 percent of total land transactions, recorded 94,000 in October, up 12.5 percent month-on-month and up 7.1 percent compared with a year ago (87,000).
Land transactions
(Land lots, thousands)
2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nationwide 187 208 170 187 220 258 228 257 219 199 278 293 262 279 290 241 229 263 Seoul Gyeonggi Incheon
2010
2011
2012
2013
16 41 8
18 43 10
13 33 8
17 37 8
22 46 10
29 57 13
25 50 11
23 53 9
20 45 8
21 43 8
33 62 12
36 66 13
34 60 12
33 65 13
36 62 15
29 56 13
27 58 12
31 63 14
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Land transaction volume 500,000
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
39
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in October decreased 1.3 percent month-on-month and increased 2.4 percent year-on-year. Output fell in mining & manufacturing (down 1.4%, m-o-m), construction (down 7.8%, m-o-m), and public administration (down 6.9%, m-o-m), but rose in services (up 0.2%, m-o-m).
Index of all industry production 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
Index of all industry production(y-o-y)
2015 Mar
Apr
May
Jun
-0.5 2.0
-0.5 0.7
-0.6 0.1
0.6 1.4
Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
124.7 0.2
125.1 0.3
125.0 -0.1
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
100.3 -0.2
100.3 0.0
Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
130.5 1.2
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
103.8 0.7
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
1. Preliminary
Jul
Aug1
Sep1
Oct1
0.6 0.3
0.3 1.2
2.5 4.5
-1.3 2.4
125.2 0.2
125.9 0.6
126.8 0.7
128.2 1.1
129.1 0.7
99.8 -0.5
99.5 -0.3
99.7 0.2
100.1 0.3
100.8 0.7
101.1 0.3
131.1 0.5
132.1 0.8
132.3 0.2
133.0 0.5
133.9 0.7
135.3 1.0
136.3 0.7
103.7 -0.1
104.0 0.3
103.6 -0.4
103.5 -0.1
103.6 0.1
104.2 0.6
104.4 0.2
40
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index was up 0.3 points month-on-month to 101.1. Five components of the coincident composite index including mining & manufacturing production, service output and retail sales rose, while the value of construction completed and domestic shipments fell. Components of the coincident composite index in October (m-o-m) mining & manufacturing production (0.3%), service output (0.3%), retail sales (1.9%), imports (1.5%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.2%), value of construction completed (-0.1%), domestic shipments (-0.3%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 points month-on-month to 104.4. Six components of the leading composite index, such as the consumer expectations index, the value of construction orders received and the ratio of job openings to job seekers, increased, while three others including domestic shipments of machinery and the KOSPI were down. Components of the leading composite index in October (m-o-m) inventory circulation indicator (2.2%p), consumer expectations index (1.0p), value of construction orders received (0.1%), ratio of export to import prices (0.1%), international commodity prices (2.5%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (3.4%p), domestic shipments of machinery (-1.7%), KOSPI (-0.6%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.05%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
41
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
2016 Economic Policies
Policy Issue
Policy Issue
2016 Economic Policies 2016 Policies Focus on Maintaining Recovery Momentum and Strengthening Growth Potential
The government drew up the 2016 policies, focusing on maintaining the recovery momentum and laying a foundation for sustainable growth. To this end, the government will maintain its strategies of pursuing both short-term stimulus and rather longer-term restructuring as it will work on boosting demand and continue to implement the Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation.
I. Economic policy in 2016 1) Adopt expansionary macroeconomic policies to support recovery momentum Fiscal policy: Increase budget frontloading by 8 trillion won in the first quarter to 125 trillion won (budget execution rate in Q1: 29.2%); increase public institutions’ investment in private sector projects by 6 trillion won; promote private sector investment in SOC projects by introducing a new PPP (Public-Private Partnership), such as BTO-rs/a1 Monetary policy: Maintain accommodative monetary policy and step up efforts to break out of low inflation Foreign exchange policy: Maintain foreign exchange market stability to ensure financial stability from extreme shocks
2) Boost domestic consumption and exports Boost consumption Shopping events: Organize a large scale shopping event every November to attract foreign tourists as well as to boost domestic consumption Attracting tourists: Ease regulations regarding visa requirements and application procedures to attract Chinese tourists; sales taxes to be refunded on the spot at a total of 11,000 duty free shops2
1) Build-Transfer-Operate risk sharing or adjusted, in which the government shares losses with private investors if the SOC projects incur losses 2) For total purchases of 1 million won or less, items worth 0.2 million won or less
42
43
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
Enhancing consumers’ convenience: Accommodations and recreation facilities to be available at discounted prices during weekdays or during off-peak seasons; set up an online shopping mall to help customers purchase parallel imports with more trust and ease Increasing income flows of the elderly: Expand reverse mortgages and launch a pilot project of remodeling homes to be rented in order to help them utilize their properties
Promote investment Large scale rental housing: Boost private sector investment in large-scale rental housing construction by easing regulations and providing tax incentives; development bans to be lifted in some conservation areas; income tax credits to be increased from 50 percent to 75 percent Land use: Review special-purpose zones including farming zones and lift the development ban in order to more efficiently use land: 100,000 hectares of farming zones, 10 percent of the total, to be put up for development in 2016 Investment in new industries: Work on attracting 5 trillion won worth of private sector investment in mobile communications (2.5 trillion won) and new energy technology development (2.5 trillion won); frontload 15 trillion won of budgets in the Corporate Investment Boosting Program in 2016, which is scheduled to be invested in 2017 Public funds: Have the National Pension Fund and other public funds to increase their domestic investments, including investments in SOC projects and real estate development Private sector investment: Korea Infrastructure Investment Platform (KIIP), which utilizes pension funds and private sector funds, to invest about 14.5 trillion won in new SOC projects, such as subway construction to connect northern and southern parts of Seoul; Korea Trade Insurance Corporation to increase its import insurance from 1.5 trillion won to 2.0 trillion won; small enterprises to receive increased import duty cuts from 30 percent to 50 percent for importing industrial automation equipment FDI: Develop the Saemangeum Korea-China economic cooperation complex into an export base for foreign businesses to enter the Chinese market; ease requirements for foreign businesses to locate their headquarters and R&D centers in Korea
Strengthen competitiveness Promoting export: Increase export financing by 20 trillion won to 271 trillion won3; reform export support programs in the Export-import Bank of Korea, KOTRA and other public institutions to focus more on new product development and market exploration Developing promising export items: Prepare plans to support consumer goods exports by July in order to provide industry-specific support for five major consumer goods, such as cosmetics, groceries and clothing; tariff quotas to be applied to nine import items, up from four items, which include display panel and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, to help develop new growth engines
3) US $2 billion through interbank credit lines to support new market exploration 3.5 trillion won to support promising services 1.0 trillion won of on-lending loans to support small exporters, up from 0.1 trillion won
Policy Issue
Promoting Korean companies’ direct investment in China: The Korea Trade Association to provide broad support from establishing distribution channels to speeding up customs clearance; launch about 4 trillion won worth of financial support programs to help Korean companies conduct M&As with Chinese companies and establish manufacturing bases and distribution channels in China, while increasing support for intermediate goods manufacturers Promoting Korean companies’ doing business in China: Launch a Global Korea Infrastructure Investment Platform worth 8 trillion won and utilize 2.6 trillion won from other development financing programs to support infrastructure construction in the region; create 0.5 trillion won worth of service industry support funds in order to help Korea-China joint businesses, including startups
3) Work on risk management Household debt Gradually increase the ratio of mortgages with fixed interest rates and amortization schedules, while tightening DTI4 ratio requirements with potential interest rate hikes being taken into account when calculating DTI ratios for variable rate loans
Corporate debt Corporate restructuring: Strongly promote corporate sector restructuring, in particular of those in industries facing oversupply issues, such as shipbuilders, shipping businesses, steel manufacturers and oil refiners; enact the Special Act on Corporate Revitalization to encourage business restructuring by providing tax incentives for stock swaps and asset sales; long term guarantee assessment to be conducted more accurately as banks will form a joint taskforce together to accurately carry out corporate credit analyses Maintaining market stability: Strengthen the monitoring of the corporate bond market situation and its impact on the financial market; Korea Development Bank to provide up to 5 billion won per small enterprise and 7 billion won per medium-sized enterprise in order to relieve their temporary liquidity crunch; Korea Credit Guarantee Fund to provide associated companies with guarantees if they struggle to keep employees during the restructuring process
External risks Maintaining external stability: Conduct a thorough review of the current foreign exchange soundness management system to prepare for an increase in market volatility following the Fed’s rate hike: revise the three macro-prudential measures5 to be more flexible and review external soundness regulations for financial institutions, including the foreign exchange liquidity ratio Promoting overseas investment: Introduce tax-favored foreign equity investment funds and help correct inefficient foreign exchange risk hedging practices
4) Debt to income 5) Ceilings on banks’ FX derivatives positions, macro-prudential levy on banks’ foreign liabilities and tax on foreign investors’ bond investments
44
45
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
II. 2016 policies focus on Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation The government will continue to pursue structural reform and creative economy in 2016 by successfully implementing the Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation.
2016 policies to successfully implement the Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation 2016 policies Reforming the four areas
1) Labor sector - Enact the labor market reform bills which regulate average monthly wages, working hours, unemployment benefits and outsourcing - Work on follow-ups to the tripartite agreements with a focus on protecting contract workers 2) Public sector - Continue to pursue management efficiency in public institutions: restructure energy, environment and education sectors with a focus on improving their core functions - Continue to work on increasing fiscal spending efficiency: enact PAY-GO rules6 and manage fiscal projects more efficiently - Introduce a performance-based pay system to the public sector 3) Finance sector - Promote competition: launch internet only banks, remove regulatory arbitrages to provide a level playing field and promote performance-based reward - Stimulate the capital market: work on Korea’s joining the MSCI advanced market index and transforming the KRX7 into a holding company, promote equity-based crowd funding and give tax incentives to PEFs investing in ventures - Ease FX transaction related regulations focusing on streamlining capital account transaction reporting requirements, open won-yuan direct markets in China, and promote yuan-denominated bond issuance in the Chinese bond market 4) Education sector - Promote university restructuring with its focus on industrial demand
Further developing a creative economy
1) Invigorate Creative Economy Innovation Centers - Centers to play a role of employment centers for young adults as well as to provide tailored startup support - Creative Economy Valley in Pangyo to become an export base for promising startups - Open places for new product promotion and conduct road shows to attract global buyers 2) Promote a creative economy in regional economies - Designate deregulation zones in 14 cities and provinces: zone-specific industries to receive strong support from regulatory exceptions to financial support - Enact the Special Deregulation Zone Act in the 2nd half - Eased regulations to be applied to the 14 zones regarding land use
6) New spending to be paid for by cuts to other projects or by raising new revenues 7) Korea Exchange
46
Policy Issue
3) Develop new growth engines - Increase major industries’ competitiveness: strengthen R&D, design and other creative parts while promoting convergence in manufacturing, and help create markets for new products, such as drones and electric bicycles - Work on building industrial complexes overseas in order to provide Korean SMEs with most convenient locations - Reform support for future growth engines according to the in-depth analysis of the 19 future growth engines, including smart cars and IoT: increase government financing by 2 trillion won to 50 trillion won and expand R&D tax credit for key technology development - Develop Korean culture, including food and contents, into a lucrative industry - Foster promising ventures to become global exporters: launch a support package in March to provide total support from product development to marketing Boosting domestic demand in the long term
1) Prepare for demographic changes - Develop programs to help immigrants successfully settle in Korea: Prime Minister’s Secretariat to coordinate related policies for the most effective outcome, foreign students and professionals to be given more chances to permanently settle in Korea - Help increase birth rates: provide housing support for newly married couples as well as increase medical care for those with fertility problems - Strengthen daycare support: temporary employees to be able to take a maternity leave, mothers to work reduced hours for an extended period of time, and the number of daycare centers and tailored services to be increased - Develop senior industries: create new markets, such as medical service markets including remote healthcare services, and leisure activities markets 2) Grow service industries - Provide service sector-specific support and correct any unfair regulatory practices against the service sector compared with the manufacturing sector - Promote exports: improve regulations and build foundations including statistics to help education, sports, healthcare and content industries export their services 3) Create jobs for young adults and women - Increase job creation budgets by 12.9 percent to 15.8 trillion won with youth job creation budgets up more than 20 percent - Strengthen training programs and overseas employment support: provide country-specific and profession-specific support for overseas employment, and expand training in new growth engine areas
Preparing for reunification
1) Provide welfare support to north Korean people - Extend the child and maternal health care project to be a long-term project, and provide support for building healthcare infrastructure and facilities 2) Expand inter-Korean economic cooperation - Work on improving regulations regarding the operation of the Kaesong Industrial Complex - Work on the Rajin-Hasan logistics partnership and the restoration of the Kyeongwon railroad - Promote private sector cooperation in culture and sports sectors 3) Strengthen global cooperation - Work on establishing a Northeast Asian Development Bank, and strengthen Northeast Asian multilateral cooperation
47
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
Korea Successfully Issues Yuan-denominated Bonds in China Moody's Upgrades Korea's Ratings to Aa2 Won-Yuan Direct Trading Market Successful in First Year Korea-China FTA Takes Effect Government to Expand Opportunities for Young Koreans to Work Overseas Peak Wage System to Be Fully Adopted in the Public Sector Korea and Czech Republic Sign MOU on Nuclear Cooperation External Debt Falls to US $409.1 Billion Korea Tops 2015 ICT Development Index Public Sector Debt Grows at Slower Pace in 2014 Korea Grows 1.3% in Q3 (Preliminary)
Economic News Briefing
48
Economic News Briefing
A bank staff counts Chinese yuan bills on November 30 at KEB Hana Bank in Seoul. The government successfully issued its first yuandenominated sovereign bonds in China’s offshore market on December 15.
Korea Successfully Issues Yuan-denominated Bonds in China The Korean government successfully issued its first yuan-denominated sovereign bonds (Foreign Exchange Stabilization Bonds) in China’s onshore market. On December 15, the Korean government sold 3 billion yuan worth of bonds at an interest rate of 3.0 percent. The issuance was a great success, drawing orders of 4.3 times the amount offered, while setting an important benchmark for other Korean issuers to enter China’s onshore market and further diversify their funding sources.
Moody's Upgrades Korea's ratings to Aa2 Moody’s upgraded Korea’s sovereign rating to Aa2 from Aa3, the highest-ever rating Korea has ever received from an international credit rating agency. Moody’s also changed the rating outlook from stable to positive. Moody’s decision to raise Korea’s sovereign credit rating reflects its positive assessment of the Korean economy’s robust credit strength, sound macroeconomic performance, and the government’s consistent efforts to implement structural reform. This rating upgrade also shows that Korea is recognized as an “advanced economy” in global financial markets. Only seven of the G20 member countries have Aa2 or higher ratings from Moody’s. The timing of the decision is meaningful given the increasing financial market uncertainty amid the US Fed’s interest rate hike and Chinese economic slowdown. The higher credit rating will help the Korea economy further strengthen its resilience against external shocks.
49
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
Won-Yuan Direct Trading Market Successful in First Year Daily trading in the won-yuan direct trading market has more than quadrupled since it opened in Korea in December last year. The average daily transaction volume increased from US $880 million in December 2014 to US $3.63 billion in November 2015. trade settlements in the Chinese currency has also increased, up from US $240 million in September 2014 to US $930 million in September 2015. To further boost the won-yuan direct trading market, the government plans to lower brokerage fees and establish a simultaneous won-yuan settlement system.
Korea-China FTA Takes Effect The Korea-China FTA took effect on December 20, as it was ratified by the National Assembly on November 30. Tariffs have been cut immediately after the deal taking effect, with some of the reductions left to be applied from the first day of 2016.
Kim Hak-do, Director General for FTA Negotiations at the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy, briefs the press on the Korea-China FTA at the Government Complex in Seoul on November 30, after the National Assembly approved the free trade deal with China.
50
Economic News Briefing
Government to Expand Opportunities for Young Koreans to Work Overseas The government unveiled on November 27 plans to help young Koreans find jobs overseas, aiming to send 10,000 young adults overseas annually by 2017. The government has completed plans which are vocationspecific as well as country-specific in order to provide young Koreans with employment opportunities in the areas they favor, in addition to increase the total number of jobs available overseas. The government will have more information available for young Koreans seeking jobs in foreign countries, while streamlining regulatory processes such as those regarding visas and certificates. The Korean government will continue to work on providing quality jobs overseas in order for young Koreans to learn and experience more broadly.
Peak Wage System to Be Fully Adopted in the Public Sector The peak wage system will be fully adopted in the public sector next year as all 313 public institutions decided to introduce the system. The adoption of the new wage system is projected to create as many as 4,441 new jobs in 2016, making the total number of employees in public institutions more than 18,000, a 4.5 percent increase compared with 2015 and the largest in the past three years.
Korea and Czech Republic Sign MOU on Nuclear Cooperation Korea and the Czech Republic agreed to boost cooperation on nuclear energy as the Korean power company, Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), and Skoda Praha, a subsidiary of Czech power company CEZ signed an MOU after the meeting held on December 1 on the sidelines of President Park’s visit to the Czech Republic. The two companies agreed to cooperate in developing new nuclear projects, managing nuclear plants, establishing supply chains and sharing new technologies. President Park Geun-hye (left) poses with Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka at the Liechtenstein Palace in Prague on December 3. On the sidelines of President Park's visit to the Czech Republic, the two countries signed an MOU on nuclear cooperation.
51
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
External Debt Falls to US $409.1 Billion Korea’s external debt fell to US $409.1 billion as of the end of September 2015, down US $14.6 billion compared with June 2015, as both the short-term debt and long-term debt decreased. Short-term debt decreased as borrowings by Korean branches of foreign banks, monetary stabilization bond investment by nonresidents and corporate trade financing fell. Long-term debt declined as borrowings by domestic banks and public institutions and nonresident investment in government bonds decreased. External debt soundness indicators have improved as both the ratio of short-term external debt to total external debt and the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves fell 0.3 percentage points to 29.2 percent and 0.9 percentage points to 32.5 percent, respectively.
Korea Tops 2015 ICT Development Index Korea has been ranked first out of 167 countries in this year’s ICT Development Index, a composite measurement that ranks countries according to their level of ICT access, use and skills. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has announced the ICT Development Index every year since 2009. Korea ranked high in all three areas (9th in ICT access, 4th in ICT use, 2nd in ICT skills) and reclaimed the top spot after falling to second place last year.
Public Sector Debt Grows at Slower Pace in 2014 Korea’s public sector debt (D31), which includes the debt of general government and nonfinancial public institutions, amounted to 957.3 trillion won in 2014. • Public sector debt (957.3 trillion won) = general government debt (620.6 trillion won) + nonfinancial public corporations’ debt (408.5 trillion won) – internal transactions (71.7 trillion won)
The D3 to GDP and D2 to GDP ratios amounted to 64.5 percent and 41.8 percent, respectively, slowing down growth from 2013. • D3 to GDP ratio increase (2013 → 2014): 3.3%p → 1.6%p • D2 to GDP ratio increase (2013 → 2014): 3.0%p → 2.2%p
The slowdown is attributed to public sector reform including public institution debt reduction, which the government has been pursuing.
1) Public sector debt (D3) = general government debt (D2) + nonfinancial public corporation debt General government debt (D2) = national debt (D1) + nonprofit public institution debt National debt (D1) = central and local government debt
52
Economic News Briefing
Korea Grows 1.3% in Q3 (Preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015, according to the preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea on December 3. Both the quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year figures were revised up 0.1 percentage points from the advanced estimates. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries grew 6.5 percent quarter-on-quarter. Manufacturing grew 0.1 percent, as gains in mobile phones and semiconductors offset declines in LCDs and vessels. Construction surged 5.6 percent, led by building construction. Services were up 1.0 percent, as wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants recovered from the aftermath of the MERS outbreak. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate for construction was revised up 0.3 percentage points, while growth rates for the other sectors were in line with earlier estimates. On the expenditure side, private consumption growth was adjusted up from 1.1 percent to 1.2 percent, while government consumption growth was adjusted down from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent. Facility investment grew 1.8 percent, down from 2.0 percent, while construction investment grew 5.0 percent, up from 4.5 percent. Intellectual property investment, which rose 0.1 percent, was revised down from the advanced estimate of 0.2 percent. Export growth was revised down from -0.2 percent to -0.6 percent, and import growth was revised down from 1.3 percent to 1.1 percent.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period) 1
2013
20151
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
GDP
0.6 (2.1)2
1.0 (2.7)2
0.9 (3.2)2
0.9 (3.5)2
1.1 (3.9)2
0.5 (3.4)2
0.8 (3.3)2
0.3 (2.7)2
0.8 (2.5)2
0.3 (2.2)2
1.3 (2.7)2
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-2.0
0.7
4.1
3.3
-2.2
-2.0
2.0
2.8
3.4
-12.2
6.5
Manufacturing
1.6
1.1
0.8
0.8
2.2
1.1
-0.9
0.0
0.4
1.2
0.1
Construction
2.0
1.5
0.1
-1.2
1.4
0.1
0.9
-3.0
2.0
0.0
5.6
Services
0.5
1.2
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.3
1.2
0.6
0.9
0.0
1.0
Private consumption
-0.1
0.5
1.1
0.6
0.4
-0.4
0.8
0.5
0.6
-0.2
1.2
Government consumption
1.2
1.9
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.6
2.1
0.2
0.2
0.8
1.7
Facility investment
2.7
0.9
3.5
4.2
-1.4
1.3
0.2
4.0
0.2
0.5
1.8
Construction investment
5.3
4.6
-0.8
-4.8
5.3
0.5
0.9
-7.8
7.4
1.6
5.0
Intellectual property investment
3.0
0.6
0.6
3.3
2.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
2.3
-0.7
0.1
Exports
0.2
2.3
-0.7
1.3
1.4
1.3
-1.7
0.4
0.1
0.3
-0.6
Imports
0.7
1.5
0.0
2.9
-1.1
1.2
-0.7
0.7
0.6
0.9
1.1
3
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
53
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Statistical Appendices
54
Statistical Appendices
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP
Final consumption Agri., fores. & Manufacturing expenditure fisheries
Period
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p
5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3
1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 2.6
7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 4.0
5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0
3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.1
0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.0
8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 5.8
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0
8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.2 -0.9 -3.6
-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4
11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5
-1.2 0.3 4.4 6.8
2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2
1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6
-3.2 4.3 4.9 6.5
1.3 8.9 7.4 3.5
-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.6
2014pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3.9 3.4 3.3 2.7
5.6 3.3 1.4 1.3
5.1 5.1 3.3 2.4
2.7 1.7 2.0 1.8
5.8 3.3 3.3 0.7
4.1 0.2 2.3 -1.5
7.2 7.7 4.2 4.2
2015pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ
2.5 2.2 2.7
6.3 -4.7 -0.7
0.7 0.8 1.7
1.9 2.0 2.3
2.4 2.4 5.1
0.6 1.6 5.7
5.8 5.0 6.6
p: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
55
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100)
Period
Production index y-o-y change(%)
2012 2013 2014
107.4 108.2 108.2
1.3 0.7 0.0
107.2 108.1 107.9
1.5 0.8 -0.2
125.2 130.7 128.4
4.4 4.4 -1.8
104.8 106.4 108.7
1.6 1.5 2.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.0 109.3 104.3 113.0
-0.6 0.4 0.6 2.2
106.1 109.4 104.5 112.2
-0.5 0.9 0.7 2.2
123.1 119.2 124.5 130.7
4.6 3.8 8.7 4.4
103.2 106.8 105.6 110.0
1.2 1.8 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.7 109.8 105.5 110.9
0.7 0.5 1.2 -1.9
106.5 109.3 104.8 111.0
0.4 -0.1 0.3 -1.1
130.0 128.9 129.7 128.4
5.6 8.1 4.2 -1.8
105.3 108.4 108.3 112.9
2.0 1.5 2.6 2.6
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ ⅢP
105.7 108.2 105.3
-0.9 -1.5 -0.2
105.9 108.0 105.7
-0.6 -1.2 0.9
133.7 136.0 139.5
2.8 5.5 7.6
108.2 111.1 111.3
2.9 2.5 2.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.2 97.3 109.6 109.5 110.6 107.8 108.0 103.9 101.1 113.3 112.2 113.4
9.0 -8.3 -1.8 2.5 -0.1 -1.3 1.9 3.6 -3.4 4.1 -0.4 2.8
110.0 98.2 110.2 109.3 110.3 108.6 107.1 104.9 101.4 112.6 111.4 112.6
7.0 -7.4 -0.7 2.9 0.4 -0.5 1.8 5.0 -4.5 4.1 0.4 2.3
128.6 124.6 123.1 120.7 121.7 119.2 124.0 123.5 124.5 126.3 129.1 130.7
7.8 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.0 3.8 7.5 3.5 8.7 8.8 6.4 4.4
102.4 100.4 106.7 105.6 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.7 105.4 107.8 107.4 114.7
2.1 0.5 0.9 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.7 -0.3 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 101.0 112.9 112.4 108.4 108.5 112.3 101.2 103.1 109.8 108.3 114.7
-4.5 3.8 3.0 2.6 -2.0 0.6 4.0 -2.6 2.0 -3.1 -3.5 1.1
105.1 101.3 113.1 111.3 108.7 107.8 109.5 101.7 103.2 109.0 109.2 114.9
-4.5 3.2 2.6 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.2 -3.1 1.8 -3.2 -2.0 2.0
132.1 129.3 130.0 131.2 130.0 128.9 133.2 130.6 129.7 130.7 129.7 128.4
2.7 3.8 5.6 8.7 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.7 4.2 3.5 0.5 -1.8
104.7 101.8 109.4 106.9 108.8 109.6 108.7 107.9 108.3 110.6 109.8 118.4
2.2 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9p 10p
108.1 96.0 113.0 109.5 105.1 110.0 108.6 101.2 106.0 111.5
1.8 -5.0 0.1 -2.6 -3.0 1.4 -3.3 0.0 2.8 1.5
108.1 96.6 113.1 109.5 105.5 108.9 107.8 101.9 107.3 111.8
2.9 -4.6 0.0 -1.6 -2.9 1.0 -1.6 0.2 4.0 2.6
132.4 133.0 133.7 135.2 134.6 136.0 138.8 138.7 139.5 137.7
0.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.5 5.5 4.2 6.2 7.6 5.4
107.1 104.6 113.0 111.2 111.4 110.6 111.3 110.4 112.3 114.0
2.4 2.8 3.3 4.0 2.4 0.9 2.4 2.3 3.7 3.1
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Shipment index y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index Service production index y-o-y y-o-y change(%) change(%)
56
Statistical Appendices
3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
2012 2013 2014
106.9 108.6 110.3
2.1 1.6 1.6
97.5 95.1 94.2
-2.7 -2.5 -0.9
78.6 76.5 76.1
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.1 108.3 108.8 109.3
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7
93.7 97.9 90.8 98.3
-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 0.0
77.3 76.1 75.4 77.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
109.6 109.9 110.6 111.0
1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6
92.8 96.8 91.5 95.8
-1.0 -1.1 0.8 -2.5
77.1 76.1 76.0 75.1
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp
111.2 111.3 111.4
1.5 1.3 0.7
90.1 94.8 89.8
-2.9 -2.1 -1.9
74.4 74.2 74.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.9 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.6
1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9
98.9 84.9 97.2 97.9 99.4 96.3 94.6 90.7 87.0 99.7 98.2 96.9
6.9 -12.7 -5.5 -1.0 -3.1 -5.0 -2.7 2.7 -7.5 1.6 -2.5 0.8
78.8 77.3 75.9 75.8 76.4 76.2 74.7 76.8 74.8 77.0 76.5 77.4
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.7 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.8 110.9 110.9 111.1
1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4
91.9 87.5 99.0 99.8 95.6 94.9 98.7 86.8 88.9 95.8 94.1 97.6
-7.1 3.1 1.9 1.9 -3.8 -1.5 4.3 -4.3 2.2 -3.9 -4.2 0.7
77.8 76.3 77.2 77.2 74.9 76.3 77.9 74.7 75.4 74.2 74.6 76.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9p 10p
111.1 111.0 111.5 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.2 111.3 111.8 111.8
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8
93.0 81.1 96.3 95.8 91.9 96.8 94.8 85.9 88.8 95.0
1.2 -7.3 -2.7 -4.0 -3.9 2.0 -4.0 -1.0 -0.1 -0.8
74.1 75.1 73.9 74.1 73.2 75.2 74.7 74.1 75.2 73.8
p: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
57
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100)
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods
Period
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
107.1 107.9 109.7
2.5 0.7 1.7
116.3 116.6 122.6
5.4 0.3 5.1
103.9 106.1 105.5
-0.3 2.1 -0.6
104.3 104.7 105.5
2.2 0.4 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.8 107.7 107.2 113.0
0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1
111.0 118.2 116.8 120.3
1.5 2.8 -1.4 -1.5
102.1 107.3 94.9 119.9
3.1 1.6 2.7 1.3
101.2 102.9 108.0 106.6
-1.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 108.6 108.8 115.1
2.4 0.8 1.5 1.9
117.2 121.2 123.4 128.6
5.6 2.5 5.7 6.9
100.3 104.9 96.2 120.4
-1.8 -2.2 1.4 0.4
103.8 104.3 107.5 106.5
2.6 1.4 -0.5 -0.1
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp
108.0 111.8 112.3
1.6 2.9 3.2
126.6 131.9 132.5
8.0 8.8 7.4
98.7 104.0 93.2
-1.6 -0.9 -3.1
103.4 105.8 111.2
-0.4 1.4 3.4
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.3 105.4 110.9 106.8 109.2 104.5 107.8 111.3 113.2 114.6
-2.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0 -1.4 2.0 1.3 0.1
112.3 105.9 114.8 115.1 119.7 119.9 127.5 116.2 106.8 120.5 120.2 120.1
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 2.0 -0.2 1.4 1.8 -7.8 2.9 -2.4 -4.7
102.8 93.3 110.2 106.7 113.8 101.3 98.0 86.6 100.1 113.9 123.8 122.1
-1.9 1.5 9.8 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.6 5.4 2.6 -0.8 4.1 0.4
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.0 105.6 106.8 111.6 105.8 105.3 108.8
-6.7 3.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 2.8 1.9 2.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 99.1 109.3 105.6 112.1 108.1 109.9 107.1 109.3 111.1 114.3 119.9
5.5 -0.4 1.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 4.6
116.1 116.9 118.5 114.2 121.8 127.5 131.1 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.7 138.1
3.4 10.4 3.2 -0.8 1.8 6.3 2.8 2.0 12.8 -1.3 7.1 15.0
100.7 92.0 108.2 105.8 111.8 97.2 95.7 91.5 101.5 116.0 120.6 124.7
-2.0 -1.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.8 -4.0 -2.3 5.7 1.4 1.8 -2.6 2.1
111.9 93.9 105.5 101.5 107.7 103.7 106.3 108.6 107.5 105.4 104.9 109.3
10.0 -5.4 2.9 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.7 -3.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9p 10p
107.3 104.4 112.4 110.8 115.6 108.9 112.2 109.2 115.4 120.3
-2.8 5.3 2.8 4.9 3.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 5.6 8.3
128.2 117.2 134.5 129.3 130.1 136.2 139.9 129.2 128.5 141.9
10.4 0.3 13.5 13.2 6.8 6.8 6.7 9.0 6.6 19.3
97.9 92.6 105.7 107.6 115.4 89.1 92.4 87.7 99.5 123.5
-2.8 0.7 -2.3 1.7 3.2 -8.3 -3.4 -4.2 -2.0 6.5
101.7 103.6 105.0 103.5 109.0 104.9 107.9 109.3 116.3 108.8
-9.1 10.3 -0.5 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 8.2 3.2
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
Statistical Appendices
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period
Consumer sentiment index
2012 2013 2014
102.5 102.2 101.8
1.6 -0.3 -0.4
102.8 103.4 102.6
2.5 0.6 -0.8
102.4 101.7 101.5
1.2 -0.7 -0.2
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.0 98.7 102.4 104.7
2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2
108.3 100.9 102.6 101.8
10.7 1.8 0.1 -9.1
100.8 97.7 102.3 105.9
-1.2 -2.5 -1.5 2.4
-
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 100.3 102.4 103.9
-2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.8
103.4 103.0 100.9 103.2
-4.5 2.1 -1.7 1.4
99.5 99.2 103.0 104.2
-1.3 1.5 0.7 -1.6
-
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp
101.8 101.0 104.5
1.1 0.7 2.1
99.9 102.5 105.0
-3.4 -0.5 4.1
102.5 100.4 104.3
3.0 1.2 1.3
-
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.8 96.9 103.3 99.5 99.7 96.9 103.4 104.0 99.7 108.8 102.9 102.3
8.2 -1.7 0.2 0.3 -1.9 -2.0 0.6 2.5 -6.0 2.1 -2.6 -3.2
110.3 106.4 108.1 98.1 101.7 102.8 109.0 103.8 94.9 104.4 103.1 97.8
19.2 8.2 5.5 4.3 1.3 0.0 3.5 5.5 -8.7 -3.8 -7.0 -16.1
108.1 92.9 101.3 100.0 98.8 94.4 101.1 104.2 101.7 110.7 102.8 104.2
3.9 -5.9 -1.9 -1.3 -3.2 -3.0 -0.7 1.3 -5.0 4.7 -0.7 3.1
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.4 96.6 103.0 101.7 99.8 99.5 104.8 100.2 102.2 105.0 100.9 105.8
-5.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 0.1 2.7 1.4 -3.7 2.5 -3.5 -1.9 3.4
99.9 106.7 103.6 97.9 103.4 107.7 107.6 95.0 100.1 99.8 102.9 106.8
-9.4 0.3 -4.2 -0.2 1.7 4.8 -1.3 -8.5 5.5 -4.4 -0.2 9.2
103.4 92.3 102.8 103.3 98.2 96.1 103.7 102.4 103.0 107.3 100.0 105.4
-4.3 -0.6 1.5 3.3 -0.6 1.8 2.6 -1.7 1.3 -3.1 -2.7 1.2
109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107 107 105 103 101
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9p 10p 11
104.8 94.5 106.0 105.5 98.8 98.8 103.2 102.1 108.2 110.8 -
2.3 -2.2 2.9 3.7 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 1.9 5.9 5.5 -
101.2 92.8 105.8 107.1 98.1 102.3 107.0 103.3 104.7 114.5 -
1.3 -13.0 2.1 9.4 -5.1 -5.0 -0.6 8.7 4.6 14.7 -
106.3 95.2 106.1 104.7 99.1 97.3 101.6 101.5 109.7 109.2 -
2.8 3.1 3.2 1.4 0.9 1.2 -2.0 -0.9 6.5 1.8 -
102 103 101 104 105 99 100 102 103 105 106
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
59
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Estimated facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%) (2010=100) change (%)
Period 2012 2013 2014
21,648 23,078 26,485
-13.9 6.6 14.8
2,142 2,580 5,012
-11.0 20.5 94.2
19,506 20,497 21,473
-14.2 5.1 4.8
100.6 99.8 105.0
-2.8 -0.8 5.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,587 5,865 5,144 6,481
-11.5 8.8 2.1 32.0
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,158 5,311 4,622 5,406
-6.2 4.0 3.7 21.7
91.7 101.1 99.3 107.0
-12.7 -3.5 3.2 11.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,624 6,099 7,687 6,075
18.5 4.0 49.4 -6.3
1,221 305 2,708 778
184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6
5,403 5,794 4,979 5,297
4.7 9.1 7.7 -2.0
98.6 107.9 100.8 112.8
7.5 6.7 1.5 5.4
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp
6,453 7,054 5,643
-2.6 15.7 -26.6
405 493 399
-66.9 61.7 -85.3
6,048 6,561 5,244
12.0 13.2 5.3
106.9 113.5 110.9
8.4 5.2 10.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,844 1,666 2,078 1,846 2,127 1,893 1,934 1,622 1,588 2,604 2,094 1,783
-4.6 -34.5 13.2 0.0 16.2 10.3 5.4 7.5 -6.2 72.3 26.5 2.3
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.5 -28.5 815.5 28.2 -51.4
1,704 1,497 1,957 1,753 1,877 1,681 1,575 1,530 1,517 1,816 1,931 1,659
-9.4 -18.9 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.3 14.2 -4.8 27.4 26.3 11.5
90.1 83.9 101.0 98.7 102.1 102.5 108.4 100.6 88.8 109.6 101.9 109.4
-7.8 -23.1 -6.7 -7.1 -3.5 0.2 2.8 11.7 -4.6 16.0 10.3 7.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,748 1,847 3,029 2,276 1,826 1,997 1,779 4,090 1,818 1,932 2,303 1,840
-5.2 10.9 45.8 23.3 -14.1 5.5 -8.0 152.2 14.5 -25.8 10.0 3.2
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5
1,660 1,727 2,016 2,179 1,709 1,906 1,690 1,549 1,739 1,722 1,874 1,701
-2.6 15.3 3.0 24.3 -8.9 13.4 7.3 1.3 14.7 -5.2 -2.9 2.5
90.3 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.3 104.9 111.4 90.7 100.2 99.8 112.5 126.0
0.2 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.1 2.3 2.8 -9.8 12.8 -8.9 10.4 15.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9p 10p
2,324 1,856 2,273 2,782 2,102 2,170 2,023 1,702 1,917 2,047
32.9 0.5 -24.9 22.2 15.1 8.6 13.7 -58.4 5.5 6.0
116 141 148 127 197 169 133 160 106 102
32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7 50.2 -93.7 34.8 -51.5
2,208 1,715 2,126 2,656 1,905 2,000 1,890 1,542 1,811 1,945
33.0 -0.7 5.5 21.9 11.4 5.0 11.8 -0.4 4.1 13.0
102.7 98.6 119.5 113.5 109.1 117.8 119.4 105.8 107.5 112.2
13.7 3.1 8.8 2.6 0.7 12.3 7.2 16.6 7.3 12.4
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
Statistical Appendices
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won)
Period
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (%) (Total)
Type of order Public Private
Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) y-o-y change (%) (Total)
y-o-y change (%)
Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
88,713 98,089 98,465
-3.3 10.6 0.4
33,807 34,459 32,004
-3.7 1.9 -7.1
50,622 59,714 62,403
-2.0 18.0 4.5
89,395 77,885 89,833
-6.2 -12.9 15.3
26,071 24,736 26,497
-8.9 -5.1 7.1
59,811 50,947 61,321
-3.3 -14.8 20.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,178 25,760 23,718 28,732
4.7 14.9 11.1 10.7
6,998 9,318 8,058 10,085
-6.0 4.8 6.0 2.1
12,415 15,455 14,739 17,106
14.0 24.2 16.3 17.1
13,826 18,694 16,833 28,532
-39.0 -27.4 -8.5 26.3
4,292 5,371 4,987 10,086
-24.1 -3.6 -7.7 6.8
9,180 12,636 11,442 17,688
-43.7 -33.8 -8.6 48.9
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,675 26,174 23,601 27,016
7.4 1.6 -0.5 -5.0
7,147 8,706 7,243 8,909
2.1 -6.6 -10.1 -11.7
13,676 16,512 15,360 16,855
10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.5
15,972 23,436 24,035 26,390
15.5 25.4 42.8 -7.5
5,898 6,577 5,190 8,833
37.4 22.5 4.1 -12.4
9,628 16,537 18,175 16,982
4.9 30.9 58.8 -4.0
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲp
21,252 25,004 24,750
-2.0 -4.5 4.9
6,554 8,190 7,172
-8.3 -5.9 -1.0
13,949 15,831 16,589
2.0 -4.1 8.0
24,821 35,163 36,005
55.4 50.0 49.8
4,566 9,186 4,900
-22.6 39.7 -5.6
19,980 25,459 30,377
107.5 54.0 67.1
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,272 6,236 7,670 81,057 81,607 94,947 7,854 7,666 8,199 8,637 9,088 10,708
8.2 3.3 3.0 18.4 11.7 15.0 11.6 16.5 6.0 17.6 12.2 4.6
2,072 2,346 2,581 2,830 2,797 3,691 2,635 2,553 2,870 2,952 3,118 4,015
-2.4 -1.1 -12.4 7.0 -2.7 9.4 11.1 10.0 -1.2 13.9 3.8 -6.2
3,962 3,662 4,790 4,978 5,088 5,389 4,908 4,827 5,004 5,344 5,635 6,126
17.4 7.5 16.4 27.5 23.9 21.6 14.7 22.4 12.4 20.0 18.1 13.7
3,557 4,723 5,546 5,151 6,221 7,321 5,775 4,690 6,368 7,751 8,083 12,698
-52.4 -44.4 -17.4 -19.9 -14.9 -39.0 -15.4 -13.0 3.0 33.6 11.6 32.9
1,300 1,281 1,711 1,565 1,564 2,241 1,493 1,474 2,021 1,518 2,664 5,904
-36.1 -42.3 21.9 7.7 47.4 -26.7 -35.2 12.0 13.5 -23.0 26.5 10.0
2,109 3,290 3,781 3,160 4,537 4,940 4,148 3,172 4,122 6,144 5,204 6,340
-60.0 -46.3 -23.1 -29.2 -26.0 -41.9 -4.2 -21.3 -0.9 62.2 8.5 92.7
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,057 6,665 7,953 8,476 8,191 9,506 7,914 7,721 7,966 8,239 8,339 10,438
12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.2 -2.5
2,314 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,382 2,429 2,324 2,491 2,532 2,673 3,704
11.7 -6.0 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.4 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.3 -7.8
4,452 4,237 4,987 5,458 5,316 5,737 5,149 5,112 5,099 5,369 5,293 6,194
12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -6.1 1.1
5,528 5,549 4,895 7,359 6,834 9,243 6,969 8,688 8,377 7,755 6,427 12,209
55.4 17.5 -11.7 42.9 9.9 26.2 20.7 85.2 31.6 0.0 -20.5 -3.9
2,034 2,241 1,623 1,894 2,000 2,682 1,533 1,628 2,029 1,416 1,895 5,522
56.4 75.0 -5.1 21.0 27.8 19.7 2.7 10.5 0.4 -6.7 -28.9 -6.5
3,305 3,158 3,165 5,454 4,767 6,316 5,298 6,849 6,029 6,157 4,415 6,410
56.7 -4.0 -16.3 72.6 5.1 27.8 27.7 115.9 46.3 0.2 -15.2 1.1
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9p 10p
6,774 6,681 7,796 7,708 7,764 9,531 7,883 7,909 8,958 8,465
-4.0 0.2 -2.0 -9.1 -5.2 0.3 -0.4 2.4 12.5 2.7
1,997 2,089 2,468 2,467 2,325 3,399 2,284 2,207 2,681 2,280
-13.7 -5.3 -6.0 -10.0 -10.0 0.5 -6.0 -5.0 7.6 -9.9
4,561 4,374 5,014 4,937 5,127 5,767 5,338 5,406 5,845 5,816
2.4 3.2 0.5 -9.6 -3.6 0.5 3.7 5.7 14.6 8.3
7,216 5,367 12,238 9,048 12,556 13,559 8,680 8,496 18,829 9,889
30.5 -3.3 150.0 22.9 83.7 46.7 24.6 -2.2 124.8 27.5
1,297 1,133 2,136 2,586 2,458 4,142 1,791 1,921 1,188 1,802
-36.2 -49.4 31.6 36.5 22.9 54.4 16.9 18.0 -41.5 27.2
5,882 4,115 9,882 6,406 9,995 9,059 6,812 6,270 17,295 8,086
78.0 30.3 215.4 17.4 109.7 43.4 28.6 -8.5 186.9 31.3
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
61
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period
Leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical Coincident index indicator of (2010=100) coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.5 101.7 101.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.3 103.5 103.8
101.0 100.7 100.3 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.2 99.0 98.7 98.4 98.3
103.5 103.5 104.0 104.0 104.9 105.6 106.2 106.7 106.8 107.2 107.3 107.7
101.7 101.4 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.0 101.6 101.6 101.2 101.2
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 105.7 106.2 106.6 106.7 107.8 108.3 108.4 108.1 108.5 109.3 110.1
98.5 99.2 99.1 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.3 98.9 98.2 98.1 98.4 98.7
107.7 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.3 109.7 110.5 110.4 110.8 110.9 111.5 112.1
100.8 101.3 101.0 101.0 100.6 100.7 100.9 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.2 100.3
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.7 113.8 114.5 115.1 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.1
98.5 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.3
112.4 112.9 113.0 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.1 116.8 117.2 117.8
100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 100.3
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
118.7 118.9 119.0 119.4 119.8 120.5 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.4 124.9 125.9
100.4 100.2 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.4 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.5
118.5 118.9 119.4 119.6 119.8 120.2 120.8 121.5 121.8 121.9 122.2 123.0
100.5 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.2 99.9 99.8 100.1
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.8 129.0 130.5 131.1 132.1 132.3 133.0 133.9 135.3 136.3 -
102.5 103.1 103.8 103.8 104.0 103.6 103.5 103.6 104.2 104.4 -
123.6 124.5 124.7 125.1 125.0 125.2 125.9 126.8 128.2 129.1 -
100.2 100.5 100.3 100.3 99.8 99.5 99.7 100.1 100.8 101.1 -
94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 86.6 96.1 97.2 95.5 -
90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6 95.1 101.2 95.9 97.5
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
62
Statistical Appendices
9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)
Period
Current account
Goods
2012 2013 2014r
50,835.0 79,883.6 84,373.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
554,103.2 536,559.0 524,135.2
-5,213.6 -7,927.4 -4,016.9
12,116.7 11,424.8 4,489.2
-5,474.1 -4,182.3 -4,984.7
147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9
133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9
-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7
1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2
-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4
17,595.3 25,175.7 20,977.4 25,137.0
151,471.8 158,004.3 150,820.7 152,723.8
133,876.5 132,828.6 129,843.3 127,586.8
-2,990.8 -83.7 -541.6 -400.8
-635.1 690.5 1,480.7 2,953.1
-820.0 -1,674.6 -1,251.6 -1,238.5
22,454.8 28,169.4 28,303.9
25,258.2 34,858.5 30,967.6
135,480.6 143,437.4 135,692.9
110,222.4 108,578.9 104,725.3
-5,413.0 -4,019.5 -4,695.6
3,830.8 -1,556.9 2,727.7
-1,221.2 -1,112.7 -695.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,075.6 2,473.1 7,065.6 5,334.6 9,886.4 7,126.4 7,323.2 6,745.6 8,181.6 11,108.9 6,229.9 6,597.3
3,953.0 3,256.4 7,088.6 5,510.6 9,363.1 5,711.6 7,462.2 7,271.4 8,572.1 9,767.8 8,024.8 6,799.4
51,765.7 44,916.0 51,141.6 51,704.7 53,477.3 48,883.9 53,326.3 49,899.2 50,490.3 56,820.8 52,702.3 53,028.8
47,812.7 41,659.6 44,053.0 46,194.1 44,114.2 43,172.3 45,864.1 42,627.8 41,918.2 47,053.0 44,677.5 46,229.4
-1,556.6 -1,144.9 33.6 496.2 -28.7 180.4 -879.0 -869.3 -330.2 405.8 -2,088.9 -717.6
1,169.5 623.3 19.6 -482.0 721.6 1,420.9 1,032.7 665.9 648.0 1,335.7 674.8 1,225.7
-490.3 -261.7 -76.2 -190.2 -169.6 -186.5 -292.7 -322.4 -708.3 -400.4 -380.8 -710.2
2014r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,870.1 4,965.6 6,313.7 7,030.6 9,187.0 7,890.3 6,096.7 6,966.9 7,601.3 8,741.5 10,755.2 6,954.1
3,487.8 6,103.7 7,643.8 10,068.2 8,786.8 6,320.7 5,677.3 7,041.2 8,258.9 7,983.9 9,593.0 7,560.1
50,116.2 47,605.8 53,749.8 56,091.9 51,957.8 49,954.6 52,416.1 48,151.0 50,253.6 51,029.1 49,241.6 52,453.1
46,268.4 41,502.1 46,106.0 46,023.7 43,171.0 43,633.9 46,738.8 41,109.8 41,994.7 43,045.2 39,648.6 44,893.0
-1,727.0 -569.9 -693.9 -293.1 102.9 106.5 329.1 -437.3 -433.4 131.8 61.2 -593.8
84.9 -404.1 -315.9 -1,846.2 686.1 1,850.6 480.1 881.3 119.3 888.2 1,216.3 848.6
-335.6 -164.1 -320.3 -898.3 -388.8 -387.5 -389.8 -518.3 -343.5 -262.4 -115.3 -860.8
2015p 1r 2r 3r 4r 5r 6r 7r 8r 9r 10
6,240.7 6,078.7 10,135.4 7,876.6 8,365.3 11,927.5 9,460.1 8,303.5 10,540.3 8,961.6
6,687.0 7,321.2 11,250.0 12,558.0 9,156.2 13,144.3 10,045.9 8,886.6 12,035.1 10,739.2
45,398.8 40,595.3 49,486.5 50,376.1 43,835.5 49,225.8 47,380.6 43,072.5 45,239.8 47,437.2
38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,081.5 37,334.7 34,185.9 33,204.7 36,698.0
-2,384.4 -2,061.6 -967.0 -1,125.0 -397.6 -2,496.9 -1,630.0 -1,337.6 -1,728.0 -1,994.5
2,558.1 1,037.8 234.9 -3,096.6 40.8 1,498.9 1,139.5 850.9 737.3 594.4
-620.6 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8 -95.3 -96.4 -504.1 -377.5
Exports
Imports
49,406.0 80,568.6 88,885.4
603,509.2 617,127.6 613,020.6
12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1
14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0
2014r Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
13,149.4 24,107.9 20,664.9 26,450.8
2015p Ⅰr Ⅱr Ⅲr
p: Preliminary r : Revised Source: The Bank of Korea
63
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)
Period
Financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Reserve assets
Capital account
2012 2013 2014r
-51,582.4 -80,104.6 -89,334.0
-21,136.2 -15,593.2 -18,765.6
6,747.8 -9,344.5 -30,608.9
2,627.8 4,410.3 3,826.9
-26,637.3 -43,281.1 -25,900.6
-13,184.5 -16,296.1 -17,885.8
-41.7 -27.0 -8.9
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,448.7 -19,645.6 -22,675.5 -26,334.8
-3,878.4 -3,397.8 -3,426.8 -4,890.2
-7,285.9 -9,776.5 9,375.4 -1,657.5
1,395.8 -513.6 1,656.3 1,871.8
2,880.2 -10,063.8 -23,611.4 -12,486.1
-4,560.4 4,106.1 -6,669.0 -9,172.8
-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
2014r Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-15,120.7 -24,650.2 -21,230.4 -28,332.7
-2,367.1 -7,990.4 -2,952.8 -5,455.3
-12,614.4 -4,291.2 -4,292.1 -9,411.2
1,004.6 1,983.9 1,649.7 -811.3
5,879.9 -3,182.9 -9,803.2 -18,794.4
-7,023.7 -11,169.6 -5,832.0 6,139.5
-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.1
2015 p Ⅰr Ⅱr Ⅲr
-23,800.1 -28,671.4 -29,615.2
-4,386.2 -7,467.6 -4,920.9
-7,838.4 -6,994.1 -15,096.2
41.0 461.4 -4,040.7
-4,506.4 -7,369.2 -9,844.1
-7,110.1 -7,301.9 4,286.7
-23.1 -25.5 -27.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,694.7 -1,707.1 -7,046.9 -2,435.7 -12,288.9 -4,921.0 -9,446.1 -6,236.3 -6,993.1 -10,139.4 -7,433.1 -8,762.3
-802.5 -909.3 -2,166.6 401.3 -2,175.6 -1,623.5 -796.8 -1,157.2 -1,472.8 -340.7 -2,243.9 -2,305.6
-5,964.7 2,149.9 -3,471.1 -2,060.8 -1,642.1 -6,073.6 1,785.8 1,584.1 6,005.5 4,942.8 -1,557.9 -5,042.4
579.6 651.0 165.2 -301.1 719.1 -931.6 431.4 210.0 1,014.9 805.3 466.9 599.6
4,123.7 -1,158.3 -85.2 -1,382.5 -8,189.7 -491.6 -8,821.6 -5,172.4 -9,617.4 -10,754.2 -1,248.6 -483.3
-630.8 -2,440.4 -1,489.2 907.4 -1,000.6 4,199.3 -2,044.9 -1,700.8 -2,923.3 -4,792.6 -2,849.6 -1,530.6
-8.0 -2.9 8.2 -1.6 -11.0 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
2014r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3,459.5 -6,830.1 -4,831.1 -6,109.1 -8,223.5 -10,317.6 -4,787.1 -7,866.8 -8,576.5 -7,243.3 -10,457.9 -10,631.5
1,420.3 -1,601.5 -2,185.9 -2,369.9 -3,512.1 -2,108.4 -492.8 -524.3 -1,935.7 -2,769.7 -1,998.3 -687.3
-4,393.6 -6,429.0 -1,791.8 1,793.6 -2,027.7 -4,057.1 -1,696.5 705.2 -3,300.8 -339.4 -2,686.3 -6,385.5
177.3 264.6 562.7 890.2 546.6 547.1 597.0 621.0 431.7 -426.1 -91.7 -293.5
2,243.2 3,260.8 375.9 -5,757.2 2,737.4 -163.1 132.9 -7,841.8 -2,094.3 -3,955.6 -8,579.1 -6,259.7
-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7 -826.9 -1,677.4 247.5 2,897.5 2,994.5
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -4.2
2015 p 1r 2r 3r 4r 5r 6r 7r 8r 9r 10
-7,898.1 -5,175.2 -10,726.8 -9,802.8 -8,558.1 -10,310.5 -10,018.0 -9,052.5 -10,544.7 -11,086.1
-659.2 -1,631.0 -2,096.0 -1,712.2 -949.9 -4,805.5 15.1 -328.1 -4,607.9 -3,501.4
-3,623.7 -3,001.5 -1,213.2 -138.0 -358.3 -6,497.8 -8,277.2 -2,537.4 -4,281.6 -7,098.9
-76.2 27.5 89.7 301.9 403.7 -244.2 -936.4 -1,618.6 -1,485.7 812.0
489.1 -371.2 -4,624.3 -4,851.0 -4,755.5 2,237.3 -1,792.3 -8,450.1 398.3 931.9
-4,028.1 -199.0 -2,883.0 -3,403.5 -2,898.1 -1,000.3 972.8 3,881.7 -567.8 -2,229.7
-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5 -29.9 1.1 0.9 -5.4
p: Preliminary r : Revised Source: The Bank of Korea
64
Statistical Appendices
11. Prices (2010=100)
Period
Consumer Prices Commodities Services
All Items y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices All Items Commodities
Core
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
106.3 107.7 109.0
2.2 1.3 1.3
108.9 110.1 111.1
3.0 1.0 0.9
104.2 105.8 107.4
1.4 1.5 1.6
104.9 106.6 108.8
1.6 1.6 2.0
107.5 105.7 105.2
0.7 -1.6 -0.5
108.9 106.2 104.8
0.2 -2.5 -1.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4
107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0
4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6
103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8
2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5
3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2
107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8
3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4
3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.9
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.0 110.1
0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9
110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.3 111.5 110.2 110.0
-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6
108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.8 110.0 109.9 110.1
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.4 111.6
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3
101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.8
-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.5
99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.1
-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.3
Source: The Bank of Korea
65
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
12. Employment Period
Economically active persons (thousands) y-o-y change (%)
Employed persons (thousands) Unemployment All industry Manufacturing SOC & services rate (%) y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
2012 2013 2014
25,501 25,873 26,536
1.6 1.5 2.6
24,681 25,066 25,599
1.8 1.6 2.1
4,105 4,184 4,330
0.3 1.9 3.5
19,033 19,347 19,805
2.4 1.6 2.4
3.2 3.1 3.5
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139
2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0
23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402
2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183
-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8
18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010
3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9
3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303 27,064 27,129 27,137 27,082
1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1
25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305 26,141 26,264 26,298 26,253
1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1
4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528 4,491 4,512 4,552 4,545
3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.4
19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250 20,153 20,249 20,248 20,353
1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.3
3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1
Source: Statistics Korea
66
Statistical Appendices
13. Financial indicators (period average)
Period
Yields (%) Corporate bonds Treasury bonds (3 years, AA-) (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Stock KOSPI (endperiod)
Call rate (1 day)
CDs (91 days)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0
1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81 2,029.47 1,991.97
Source: The Bank of Korea
67
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • December 2015
14. Monetary indicators (billion won)
Period 2012 2013 2014
Reserve money y-o-y change (%)
M1
M2
y-o-y change (%)
Lf
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
82,131.1 91,379.4 103,331.5
9.2 11.3 13.1
441,963.6 484,062.9 536,733.4
3.8 9.5 10.9
1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3
5.2 4.8 6.6
2,379,518.7 2,543,232.5 2,721,502.2
7.8 6.9 7.0
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
81,635.4 81,655.3 79,068.0 80,641.8 80,547.7 81,804.0 81,555.7 82,369.1 82,958.7 85,078.6 82,956.5 85,302.7
11.0 8.3 8.3 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.1 8.9 6.4 10.6 8.3 9.6
439,352.9 437,193.9 440,075.4 437,445.3 438,795.3 441,611.0 441,760.6 439,573.2 440,034.3 444,477.8 445,463.9 457,778.9
2.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.4 4.0 3.5 5.5 5.3 5.8
1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4 1,773,172.9 1,777,114.7 1,784,220.5 1,796,981.5 1,807,289.2 1,817,134.9 1,819,290.1 1,822,420.9 1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7
4.8 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.5
2,292,213.5 2,302,395.9 2,340,852.4 2,349,723.6 2,357,701.0 2,377,071.3 2,393,737.7 2,405,239.9 2,415,263.5 2,424,000.4 2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9
6.5 7.2 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5
5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7
464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9
5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3
1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4
4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3
2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,866.7 2,619,029.5
7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4 105,354.1 107,117.5 106,667.9 110,175.6
14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.6
515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3 548,550.8 551,416.0 562,006.2 577,721.1
10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.4
1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2 2,037,600.8 2,051,149.8 2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8
5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.1
2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,443.2 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5 2,759,390.8 2,776,968.0 2,817,698.0 2,834,968.4
6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4 126,572.2 125,616.2
15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2 20.1 17.3
579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9 665,691.1 669,737.7
12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5
2,092,223.5 2,109,892.3 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,179,561.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3 2,230,000.7 2,232,432.0
8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.8
2,857,610.1 2,876,467.8 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,316.5 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1 3,049,823.2 3,058,126.2
8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
68
Statistical Appendices
15. Exchange rates (end-period)
Period
100/ \
US $/ \
Euro/ \
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
1,071.1 1,055.3 1,099.2
-7.1 -1.5 4.2
1,247.5 1,004.7 920.1
-16.0 -19.5 -8.4
1,416.3 1,456.3 1,336.5
-5.2 2.8 -8.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1
1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1
1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5
8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0
1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3
-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4
1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5
921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 944.1 936.7
-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3
1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3
-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2
Source: The Bank of Korea
69
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • november 2015
Jeongdongjin Jeongdongjin, a seaside town located in the east coast, is one of the most popular sites in Korea for watching the sunrise on New Year's Day. A resort, designed in the image of a cruise ship, overlooks the East Sea on top of a cliff in Jeongdongjin.
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