ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
eb.kdi.re.kr
Vol.38 No.2 february 2016
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.38 No.2 february 2016
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Government Unveils New Round of Investment Boosting Measures
Economic News Briefing Korea to Increase Spending in Q1 Fitch Affirms Korea’s Sovereign credit Rating at AA‘Omnibus Account’ for Foreign Investors to be Introduced Korea Grows 0.6% in Q4
Statistical Appendices
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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february 2016
Sejong, 30109 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 263 Namsejong-ro Sejong, 30149 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eb.kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
01. External economic situation
04
02. Private consumption
08
03. Facility investment
10
04. Construction investment
12
05. Exports and imports
15
06. Mining and manufacturing production
17
07. Service sector activity
19
08. Employment
21
09. Financial markets
25
9.1 Stock market
25
9.2 Exchange rate
26
9.3 Bond market
27
9.4 Money supply & money market
27
10. Balance of payments
29
11. Prices
31
11.1 Consumer prices
31
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
33
12. Real estate market
35
12.1 Housing market
35
12.2 Land market
38
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
contents
40
42 Policy Issue Government unveils new round of investment boosting measures
45 Economic News Briefing Korea to increase spending in Q1 Fitch affirms Korea’s sovereign credit rating at AAKorea responds to lifting of Iran sanctions Neither global market jitters nor North’s threat can damage Korean economy Korean FDI rises 15% in 2015 ‘Omnibus account’ for foreign investors to be introduced Government unveils its 2016 international economic affairs policies of supporting exports Korea grows 0.6% in Q4 (Advanced)
49 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) Jung Moo-kyung (MOSF) Editorial Board Park Joon-Kyu (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF) Kang Ji-Eun (KDI)
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
01. External economic situation
02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
Overview
Production and investment improved somewhat from the previous month’s fall, while domestic demand, consumption in particular, continued to increase. The economy added jobs at a faster rate year-on-year in December 2015, from 285,000 jobs in the previous month to 495,000 jobs, as domestic demand continued to improve and the agricultural, forestry, fishery and construction sectors, which slowed down due to unfavorable weather conditions, picked up. Consumer price inflation rose at a slower rate year-on-year in January 2016, from 1.3 percent in the previous month to 0.8 percent, due to the low natural gas utilities prices and as the impact of high cigarette prices has diminished. Mining and manufacturing production, despite weak exports, rebounded in December from a 2.1 percent fall to a 1.3 percent rise, as regular maintenance in oil refineries had been completed. In December, service output stayed unchanged month-on-month and retail sales slightly fell due to a high base effect, down 0.1 percent. Year-on-year, the two indexes improved 3.0 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. Facility investment rose for the first time in three months in December, improving significantly from a 5.4 percent drop in the previous month to a 6.1 percent rise, backed by strong transportation equipment. Construction completed soared from a 0.7 percent decline to a 7.1 percent increase, led by civil engineering works. Both the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index declined in December, down 0.1 points and 0.5 points, respectively.
Exports continued to fall in January, down 18.5 percent year-on-year, amid low international oil prices and due to temporary factors, such as fewer days worked (down 1day) and weak vessel exports, which usually fluctuate monthly. In January, stock prices fell amid China’s financial market instability, and bond yields dropped due to growing demand for safe assets. The Korean won depreciated against both the US dollar and Japanese yen. Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase in January, but at a slower pace, rising 0.04 percent and 0.14 percent month-on-month, respectively. The Korean economy has to deal with rising external uncertainties, such as China’s slowdown and financial market volatility, the Fed’s rate increase, falling oil prices and North Korean risks. In order to maintain the recovery momentum gathered backed by strong domestic consumption, the government has increased its first quarter spending by more than 21 trillion won through the frontloading of public sector spending, and has extended the sales tax cut for vehicles.
February 2016
03
The government will closely monitor internal and external economic developments as well as examine uncertainties and their possible impact on domestic financial markets, and will be prepared to make appropriate responses if necessary.
1. External economic situation
The global economic recovery slowed as US growth weakened in the fourth quarter of 2015 and sluggish recoveries in Japan and the eurozone as well as economic slowdowns in China and other emerging economies continued.
World GDP growth 7
Source: International Monetary Fund
(%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
US
The US economy grew 0.7 percent (advanced estimates, annualized q-o-q) in the fourth quarter, marking a slowdown from the previous quarter, due to warm weather, but economic growth is forecast to recover backed by an improving labor market. Industrial production fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in December, and the ISM Manufacturing Index for January 2016 remained weak due to the strong dollar and sluggish global demand. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.1 (May 2015) → 53.1 (Jun) → 51.9 (Jul) → 51.0 (Aug) → 50.0 (Sep) → 49.4 (Oct) → 48.4 (Nov) → 48.0 (Dec) → 48.2 (Jan 2016)
Retail sales fell 0.1 percent in December, impacted by warm weather, while the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for January rose to 98.1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 90.7 (May 2015) → 96.1 (Jun) → 93.1 (Jul) → 91.9 (Aug) → 87.2 (Sep) → 90.0 (Oct) → 91.3 (Nov) → 92.6 (Dec) → 92.0 (Jan 2016)
04
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 94.6 (May 2015) → 99.8 (Jun) → 91.0 (Jul) → 101.3 (Aug) → 102.6 (Sep) → 99.1 (Oct) → 92.6 (Nov) → 96.3 (Dec) → 98.1 (Jan 2016) (Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014
Annual Annual
Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditure - Nonresidential fixed investment - Residential fixed investment Industrial production Retail sales Existing home sales Unemployment rate² Consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.5 1.7 3.0 9.5 1.9 3.9 9.0 7.4 1.5
2.4 2.7 6.2 1.8 3.7 3.9 -3.0 6.2 1.6
Q4 2.1 4.3 0.7 10.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 5.7 1.2
Annual
2.4 3.1 2.9 5.8 1.3 2.1 6.3 5.3 0.1
Q1 0.6 1.8 1.6 10.1 -0.1 -1.1 -1.7 5.6 -0.1
Q2 3.9 3.6 4.1 9.3 -0.6 1.7 6.5 5.4 0.0
2015 Q3 Q4 2.0 0.7 3.0 2.2 2.6 -1.8 8.2 8.1 0.7 -0.9 1.1 0.2 3.4 -5.4 5.2 5.0 0.1 0.4
Oct Nov -0.2 -0.9 0.0 0.4 -4.1 -10.5 5.0 5.0 0.2 0.5
Dec -0.4 -0.1 14.7 5.0 0.7
1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted (%) Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
US GDP growth and industrial production 10 8
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
(%)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
Existing home sales and new home sales grew month-on-month in December partly due to a low base effect, up 14.7 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively, and home price growth continued to accelerate. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 4.9 (Apr 2015) → 4.9 (May) → 4.9 (Jun) → 4.8 (Jul) → 5.0 (Aug) → 5.3 (Sep) → 5.5 (Oct) → 5.8 (Nov) New home sales (m-o-m, %) -11.0 (Mar 2015) → 4.7 (Apr) → 1.0 (May) → -8.6 (Jun) → 6.6 (Jul) → 1.4 (Aug) → -9.9 (Sep) → 5.5 (Oct) → 1.9 (Nov) → 10.8 (Dec)
The unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent in January, the lowest since February of 2008, while nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000 jobs, adding fewer jobs than the previous month.
February 2016
05
Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 245 (Jun 2015) → 223 (Jul) → 153 (Aug) → 145 (Sep) → 295 (Oct) → 280 (Nov) → 262 (Dec) → 151 (Jan 2016)
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
(thousands)
12
(%)
600 10 400 200
8
0 6 -200 -400
4
-600 2 -800 -1,000
0
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2015.1
2016.1
Unemployment rate (right)
China
China’s economy grew 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, at a slower pace than the previous quarter, as slowing exports and investment offset increasing consumption. China’s economy grew 6.9 percent in 2015. China’s foreign currency reserves totaled US $3.23 trillion in January, the lowest in three years and eight months, as the country stepped up its currency intervention. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 49.7 (Aug 2015) → 49.8 (Sep) → 49.8 (Oct) → 49.6 (Nov) → 49.7 (Dec) → 49.4 (Jan 2016)
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 16
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
(%)
(%)
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
06
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012
2014 Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.3 7.3 10.0 9.7 10.0 8.3 8.0
Real GDP Industrial production Fixed asset investment (accumulated, nominal) Retail sales (nominal) Exports Consumer prices1 Producer prices1
2013
Q4 Annual Q1 6.9 7.3 7.0 6.1 6.4 7.6
Q2 7.0 6.3
2015 Q3 Q4 6.9 6.8 5.9 5.9
Oct 5.6
Nov 6.2
Dec 5.9
20.6
19.6
19.6
15.7
16.1 15.7
10.7
13.5 11.4 10.3 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.0
14.3 8.4 2.7 -1.7
13.1 8.6 2.6 -1.9
13.5 7.5 2.9 -1.4
12.0 5.5 2.0 -1.9
11.9 11.7 13.0 8.6 2.0 1.5 -1.3 -2.7
10.0 -2.5 1.4 -5.2
10.6 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.0 11.2 11.1 4.7 -2.1 -5.9 -5.0 -6.9 -6.8 -1.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 -4.6 -4.8 -5.7 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9
1. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
Japan
The Japanese economy slowed in December as major economic indicators fell, and stock prices plunged as the yen continued to gain strength despite additional monetary easing. The Bank of Japan decided to introduce negative interest rates at a monetary policy meeting in January. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent year-on-year in December, staying below 1 percent for the ninth consecutive month. (Percentage change from previous period)
2012
2013 Q4 Annual Q1 1.6 -0.2 -0.1 1.1 -0.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.7 3.8 9.5 17.4 4.8 6.6 0.4 1.4 2.7 1.5
Annual Annual
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.8 0.2 1.5 -2.7 -0.0
2014 Q2 -1.9 -3.1 -7.2 0.1 3.6
Q3 -0.3 -1.3 3.9 3.2 3.3
Q4 0.3 0.8 1.0 9.1 2.6
Q1 1.1 1.6 -2.1 9.0 2.3
2015 Q3 Oct 0.3 -1.2 1.4 1.8 1.2 3.7 -2.2 0.1 0.3
Q2 -0.1 -1.4 0.2 6.7 0.5
Nov -0.9 -2.5 -3.3 0.3
Dec -1.4 -0.2 -8.0 0.2
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0
-5 -2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6
-25
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
February 2016
07
Eurozone
Eurozone’s financial market volatility increased due to growing concerns about nonperforming loans, while the economy continued to steadily recover backed by accommodative monetary policy and low oil prices. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 52.2 (May 2015) → 52.5 (Jun) → 52.4 (Jul) → 52.3 (Aug) → 52.0 (Sep) → 52.3 (Oct) → 52.8 (Nov) → 53.2 (Dec) → 52.3 (Jan 2016) (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2014
Annual
Annual
-0.3 -0.7 -0.8 1.0 1.4
0.9 0.8 1.2 2.2 0.4
2015 Q4 0.4 0.4 0.8 4.4 0.2
Q1 0.5 1.1 1.0 5.6 -0.3
Annual
2.4 0.0
Q2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 8.2 0.2
Q3 0.3 0.2 0.6 4.3 0.1
Q4 -0.1 0.2
Oct 0.8 -0.2 0.4 0.1
Nov -0.7 0.0 6.1 0.1
Dec 0.3 0.2
Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3
Source: Eurostat
(%)
10
(%)
8
2
6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -3
-10
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
2. Private consumption
Private consumption in the fourth quarter of 2015 (advanced estimates of GDP) grew 1.5 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 3.2 percent compared to a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)
Private consumption² (y-o-y)
2013 Annual Q3 1.9 1.1 1.9
Q4 0.6 2.2
Annual¹
1.8 -
Q1¹ 0.4 2.6
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
08
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2014 Q2¹ -0.4 1.7
Q3¹ 0.8 1.5
Q4¹ Annual¹ 0.5 2.1 1.4 -
Q1¹ 0.6 1.5
2015 Q2¹ -0.2 1.7
Q3¹ 1.2 2.1
Q4¹ 1.5 3.2
Private consumption 12
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2015.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in December fell 0.1 percent month-on-month as sales of durable goods (up 3.8%), such as automobiles, increased while sales of semi-durable goods (down 5.0%), such as clothing, and nondurable goods (down 0.4%), such as food, decreased. The index rose 3.5 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
Retail sales 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5 -10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
Retail sales (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual
Retail sales (y-o-y) - Durable goods2 · Automobiles - Semi-durable goods3 - Nondurable goods4
0.7 0.3 2.1 2.1 0.4
1.7 5.1 16.6 -0.6 0.8
2014 Q3 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.2 4.8 -0.7
Q4 0.4 1.9 1.3 6.3 -1.8 1.0
Annual¹
3.4 10.1 20.3 -1.1 1.8
Q1 0.5 1.6 5.2 3.9 -3.5 -0.5
Q2 0.6 2.9 -0.4 3.9 -0.1 1.5
Q3 1.1 3.1 0.4 1.5 1.1 1.5
2015 Q4¹ 3.6 5.7 10.0 16.2 4.1 -0.3
Oct 3.2 8.3 8.2 3.2 7.9 -1.6
Nov¹ Dec¹ -1.0 -0.1 5.6 3.5 -0.2 3.8 6.9 12.4 -2.9 -5.0 -0.6 -0.4
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
February 2016
09
Retail sales by type 50
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Durable goods
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
In January 2016, sales at department stores and large discount stores continued to increase year-on-year along with sales of gasoline and credit card use, while domestic sales of cars decreased. (percentage change from same preriod in previous year)
2015 Sep
Dec
2016 Jan
9.8
8.5
10.1
4.1
-3.8
9.6
-0.6
-2.1
13.4
10.0
4.8
4.3
8.5
22.7
16.3
17.7
-4.5
Jun
Jul
Aug
Oct
Credit card use
8.6
14.5
10.3
14.8
13.1
Department store sales
-6.0
5.7
1.2
14.1
17.4
Large discount store sales
-4.4
2.5
-4.8
10.0
1.6
Domestic sales of gasoline and diesel
1.0
0.7
10.8
10.4
Domestic sales of cars
9.4
3.5
14.9
15.5
Nov
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) rose 0.9 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2015. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual¹
Facility investment² (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment
-0.8
5.8
Q1¹ -1.4
Q3¹ 0.2
Q4¹ 4.0
Annual¹
5.2
Q1¹ 0.2
2015 Q2¹ 0.5
Q3¹ 1.8
Q4¹ 0.9
-
-
7.2
7.7
4.2
4.2
-
5.8
5.0
6.6
3.5
-2.3 3.1
5.0 7.7
-3.4 3.7
0.4 3.6
2.0 -3.8
5.6 0.4
-
-0.7 2.4
-3.9 10.6
2.3 0.9
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
10
2014 Q2¹ 1.3
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Facility investment 40
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2015.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
The facility investment index in December rose 6.1 percent month-on-month as transportation equipment investment increased, despite a decline in machinery investment. The index fell 1.0 percent year-on-year.
Facility investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Transportation equipment
Machinery
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual
Facility investment index (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment
-0.8 -2.1 2.8
5.2 3.9 8.8
2014 Q3 -0.9 1.5 -0.8 -1.4
Q4 8.6 5.4 11.7 1.5
Annualยน
6.2 2.7 15.2
Q1 -1.6 8.4 -1.3 -2.4
Q2 -1.5 5.2 -5.8 10.2
2015 Q3 4.7 10.0 1.4 12.6
Q41 0.1 1.7 -2.2 4.7
Nov1 -5.4 -4.9 -1.2 -14.0
Dec1 6.1 -1.0 -3.1 29.7
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Facility investment is expected to increase taking into account an increase in machinery orders, but the index may be negatively affected by weak business sentiment and low facility investment adjustment pressure.
February 2016
11
Business survey index for manufacturing sector (prospects, Bank of Korea) 82 (May 2015) → 76 (Jun) → 67 (Jul) → 70 (Aug) → 71 (Sep) → 70 (Oct) → 70 (Nov) → 69 (Dec) → 68 (Jan 2016) → 66 (Feb) Aircraft and vessel imports (US $ million, Korea Customs Service) 510 (Aug 2015) → 850 (Sep) → 870 (Oct) → 420 (Nov) → 500 (Dec) → 440 (Jan 2016)
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
(trillion won)
70
(y-o-y, %)
60
9
50 40
8
30 7
20 10
6
0 5
-10 -20
4
-30 3
-40
2
-50
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
2015.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013 Annual Annual
2014 Q3
Q4
Annual¹
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3
Q4¹
Nov¹
Dec¹
49.4
-6.3
-3.1
-2.6
15.7
-26.6
7.3
-14.7
35.6
-
6.2
1.4
-13.1
14.1
-7.2
20.6
-66.9
61.7
-85.3
-19.9
Domestic machinery orders
6.6
14.8
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
- Public
20.5
94.2
- Private
5.1
4.8
7.7
-2.0
10.6
12.0
13.2
5.3
11.3
-7.3
29.2
Machinery imports
1.1
5.8
1.7
7.0
0.3
8.5
-1.1
2.3
-6.4
-16.7
-9.1
Average manufacturing operation ratio
76.5
76.1
76.0
75.1
74.2
74.4
74.2
74.7
73.5
72.8
73.8
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-0.9
-1.5
-0.5
-3.5
-1.6
-2.5
-2.7
-1.1
-0.5
-0.8
-2.3
45.2 -26.0
418.5 -27.6 -61.7
-46.9 113.7
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
4. Construction investment
Construction investment in the fourth quarter of 2015 (advanced estimates of GDP) fell 6.1 percent quarter-on-quarter but rose 7.3 percent year-on-year.
12
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual¹
Construction investment² (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
5.5 11.2 -2.5
1.0 4.4 -4.4
Q1¹ 5.3 4.1 3.2 8.9
2014 Q2¹ 0.5 0.2 3.1 -3.8
Q3¹ 0.9 2.3 2.4 -1.8
Q4¹ -7.8 -1.5 -7.3 -8.8
Annual¹
4.0 -
Q1¹ 7.4 0.6 4.5 12.7
2015 Q2¹ 1.6 1.6 4.6 -3.6
Q3¹ 5.0 5.7 7.5 0.1
Q4¹ -6.1 7.3 -
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
Construction investment 20
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
The value of construction completed (constant) in December rose 7.4 percent month-on-month as both building construction and civil engineering works increased. The index rose 12.2 percent year-on-year.
Construction investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40
(y-o-y, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
Building construction
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
Residential buildings
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Civil engineering works
February 2016
13
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014 Annual Annual Q3 Construction completed (constant) 10.2 -0.8 -2.7 (y-o-y) -1.9 - Building construction 15.1 7.8 -3.8 - Civil engineering works 4.4 -12.3 -0.8
Q4 -3.9 -5.9 -3.7 -4.2
Annual¹
2.1 5.7 -4.0
Q1 4.8 -2.0 5.0 4.5
Q2 -2.7 -3.9 -1.5 -4.7
2015 Q3 7.5 5.9 10.6 2.2
Q41 -1.5 7.8 1.7 -7.5
Nov1 -0.7 5.9 0.3 -2.7
Dec1 7.4 12.2 2.2 18.5
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment outlooks are mixed: Building permits increased, while new apartment supply and shipments of intermediate goods declined. New apartment supply (thousands, Real Estate 114) 31¹ (H1 2015) → 46¹ (Q3) → 64 (Oct) → 76 (Nov) → 58 (Dec) → 8 (Jan 2016) 1. Monthly average
Domestic shipments of cement (million tons) 4.08 (Jul 2015) → 3.97 (Aug) → 4.03 (Sep) → 4.38 (Oct) → 4.18 (Nov) → 4.61 (Dec) → 3.01 (Jan 2016)
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300
(y-o-y, %)
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Construction orders
2015.1
Building permit area
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013 Annual Annual
Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permits²
-12.9 -10.2 -18.2 -7.3
15.3 24.5 -4.4 11.2
2014 Q3 42.8 22.0 61.8 -6.2 14.7
1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
14
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Q4 Annual¹ Q1 -7.5 48.3 55.4 -29.0 50.9 -5.0 49.8 87.7 -13.1 44.2 -1.5 -4.6 34.3 11.0
Q2 50.0 13.4 49.9 50.0 25.1
2015 Q3 50.9 19.4 41.6 92.2 57.0
Q41 40.2 -27.7 37.6 46.7 40.4
Nov1 105.6 18.0 114.2 86.4 47.3
Dec1 9.8 -38.6 -8.6 52.0 34.5
5. Exports and imports
Exports in January 2016 (preliminary) declined 18.5 percent year-on-year to US $36.74 billion. Exports fell at a faster pace in January compared with the previous month, due to falling oil prices (down 41.5% y-o-y, US $46 → US $27 per barrel), a decrease in vessel exports (US $4.4 billion → US $3.0 billion) and fewer days worked (down 1 day). Shipments of major items continued to fall, with shipments to most regions declining, excluding the EU. Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 7.3 (EU), -9.2 (US), -18.2 (Japan), -19.7 (ASEAN countries), -21.5 (China), -31.1 (Middle East), -35.7 (Latin America) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) -7.3 (mobile phones), -13.6 (semiconductors), -18.8 (petrochemicals), -19.9 (steel), -21.5 (automobiles), -32.3 (vessels), -35.6 (petroleum products)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, fell to US $1.63 billion in January. Average daily export growth (US $ billion) 1.92 (Jan 2015) → 1.95 (Mar) → 2.06 (May) → 1.83 (Jul) → 2.02 (Sep) → 1.93 (Nov) → 1.77 (Dec) → 1.63 (Jan 2016)
Exports by item 160 140
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Export growth rate
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Semiconductors
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Automobiles
Steel
(US $ billion)
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
2013
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Annual
559.63 2.1 2.05
572.66 2.3 2.11
526.90 -8.0 1.93
Q1 133.40 -3.0 2.01
Q2 135.10 -7.3 1.99
Q3 128.24 -9.5 1.87
Q4 130.15 -11.9 1.86
Jan 45.11 -1.0 1.92
2016 Jan1 36.74 -18.5 1.63
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
February 2016
15
Imports in January (preliminary) fell 20.1 percent year-on-year to US $31.42 billion. Imports fell at a faster pace in January compared with the previous month (down 19.2% → 20.1%) as commodities and capital goods imports continued to decline, and consumer goods turned negative. Import growth by category (Dec 2015 → Jan 2016, y-o-y, %) -26.8 → -28.9 (commodities), -15.8 → -13.1 (capital goods), 4.0 → -2.9 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)
Imports
2013
2014
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
2015 Q3
Q4
Jan
2016 Jan1
515.59
525.51
436.55
111.74
110.48
108.03
106.29
39.30
31.42
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
1.9
-16.9
-15.6
-15.6
-18.7
-17.8
-12.2
-20.1
Average daily imports
1.89
1.94
1.60
1.68
1.62
1.58
1.52
1.67
1.40
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by category 100
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Import growth rate
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Commodities
2016.1
Capital goods
The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $5.33 billion in January, staying in the black for the 48th consecutive month. Surpluses decreased compared with the previous month. (US $ billion)
Trade balance
2013
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Jan1
44.05
47.15
90.35
21.66
24.63
20.21
23.86
5.81
5.33
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2016
Exports and imports
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
60 (US $ billion) 50
40
30
20
10
0
-10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Trade balance
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Exports
2016.1
Imports
6. Mining and manufacturing production
Mining and manufacturing production rose 1.3 percent month-on-month in December 2015 due to improved chemical products and refined petroleum, despite weak communications equipment and electronic parts. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index fell 1.9 percent.
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1
2007.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
February 2016
17
Compared to the previous month, production of chemical products (up 4.7%), refined petroleum (up 7.3%) and semiconductors (up 5.2%) rose, while communications equipment (down 13.8%), electronic parts (down 3.8%) and audio-visual equipment (down 16.3%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 29.7%), refined petroleum (up 6.0%) and chemical products (up 2.7%) rose, while electronic parts (down 14.8%), mechanical equipment (down 11.9%) and processed metals (down 7.9%) declined. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013
Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m) (y-o-y)
2014 Annual Annual Q3 0.1 0.7
Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic consumption
0.0
1.2
Q4 Annual¹ Q1 -0.9 -0.1
Q2 -0.9
2015 Q3 1.6
Q4¹ -0.6
Nov¹ Dec¹ -2.1 1.3
-1.9
-1.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-0.9
-1.9
-
-
0.1
-1.0
-
0.0
-1.0
1.5
-0.3
-2.2
1.5
0.7
0.1
1.2
-1.9
-0.6
-1.0
-1.4
-0.4
0.1
-0.1
-1.8
0.7
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.3
-0.6
-0.7
2.0
-0.3
-2.0
1.3
-0.8
0.3
-0.9
-0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.9
-0.2
-0.8
0.8
- Exports
2.6
-0.4
0.1
1.1
-1.0
-2.0
-2.1
3.2
-0.3
-3.6
2.0
Inventory³
4.4
-1.8
0.9
-2.2
4.3
3.5
3.3
2.9
-5.8
-1.0
-3.0
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)
76.5
76.1
76.0
75.1
74.2
74.4
74.2
74.7
73.5
72.8
73.8
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.0
1.5
1.3
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.5
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing and electricity & gas industry 3. End-period
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 5.4 percentage points month-on-month to 122.7 percent as inventories dropped 3.0 percent and shipments increased 1.3 percent.
Shipment and inventory
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
10 (m-o-m, %) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Shipment growth
18
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Inventory growth
Inventories of refined petroleum (up 4.3%), rubber and plastics (up 2.4%) and medical, precision and optical instruments (up 3.9%) rose, while semiconductors (down 11.8%), automobiles (down 6.3%) and electronic parts (down 6.9%) declined. Shipments of automobiles (up 4.3%), refined petroleum (up 6.1%) and electrical equipment (up 9.1%) rose, while communications equipment (down 19.2%), electronic parts (down 4.0%) and audio-visual equipment (down 10.8%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 1.0 percentage points month-on-month to 73.8 percent.
Average manufacturing operation ratio 100
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
90
80
70
60
50 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
The mining and manufacturing production outlook for January 2016 is mixed as there are both positive factors, such as a production hike ahead of the release of new mobile phone models, and negative factors, such as struggling exports and weak corporate and consumer confidence amid rising global uncertainties.
7. Service sector activity
Service output in December 2015 stayed unchanged month-on-month and increased 3.0 percent yearon-year. Business services (up 1.5%, m-o-m) rose for four consecutive months, and transportation services (up 2.9%, m-o-m), education services (up 0.2%, m-o-m) and entertainment, cultural & sports services (up 6.0%, m-o-m) increased. Meanwhile, wholesale & retail (down 1.0%, m-o-m), hotels & restaurants (down 2.0%, m-o-m) and real estate & renting (down 0.4%, m-o-m) continued to decrease.
February 2016
19
Service sector activity 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2015.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Weight Service activity index 100.0 - Wholesale & retail 21.6 - Transportation services 8.5 - Hotels & restaurants 7.2 - Publishing & communications services 8.4 - Financial & insurance services 14.7 - Real estate & renting 5.3 - Professional, scientific & technical services 5.6 - Business services 3.3 - Education services 10.9 - Healthcare & social welfare services 7.5 - Entertainment, cultural & sports services 2.9 - Membership organizations & personal services 3.6 - Sewerage & waste management 0.6
2013
2014
Annual Annual Q4
1.5 0.1 1.0 0.5 2.2 0.5 2.5 3.3 2.1 0.8 5.2 -0.7 6.1 -0.4
2.2 -0.2 1.7 1.2 1.8 5.2 6.2 2.3 2.4 1.3 6.3 -1.1 -0.6 1.0
1.0 0.1 2.6 -1.2 0.1 2.9 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.7 -2.1 -3.8 1.1
Annual1
2.9 1.6 1.7 -1.8 -0.4 8.9 7.2 -0.6 3.6 0.5 6.2 0.9 -0.6 7.2
Q1 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -2.7 2.7 -2.1 -2.9 1.9 0.8 2.1 2.6 1.8 1.8
2015 Q2 Q3 Q41 Oct -0.1 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.1 -3.2 1.7 2.9 0.0 -3.3 1.8 1.3 0.2 -0.6 4.7 0.4 -1.0 1.9 1.6 0.2 -0.6 7.3 0.7 -0.9 1.9 -0.3 2.5 -1.0 -4.6 0.5 -0.8 3.4 2.2 -0.8 0.1 1.0 2.2 -0.9 1.6 3.7 -0.9 -4.2 1.4 3.8 2.7 2.1 0.1 -4.4 -3.6 3.2 6.1 -6.8 -9.1
Nov1 0.3 -1.5 -0.5 -1.1 -0.5 3.0 -1.3 3.2 0.7 -0.7 2.0 -2.3 1.2 -1.0
Dec1 0.0 -1.0 2.9 -2.0 1.1 -1.2 -0.4 -1.2 1.5 0.2 0.8 6.0 -1.0 6.8
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Wholesale & retail 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)
20
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)
December 2015 service output by business 14 12
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
10 8
Total index
6 4
Transportation services
Health & social welfare services
Business services
Real estate & renting
Publishing & communications services
Membership organizations & personal services
2 0 -2
Wholesale & retail
-4 -6
Financial & insurance services
Hotels & restaurants
-8
Professional, scientific & technical services
Education services
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
Sewerage & waste management
-10 -12
In January 2016, automobile sales fell year-on-year, but sales at department stores and large discount stores accelerated, which suggests a mixed outlook for January service output. The volume of average daily stock transactions increased month-on-month. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 8.1 (Mar 2015) → 10.9 (Apr) → 9.8 (May) → 10.1 (Jun) → 11.2 (Jul) → 8.9 (Aug) → 8.1 (Sep) → 8.7 (Oct) → 8.3 (Nov) → 7.1 (Dec) → 8.3 (Jan 2016)
8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in December 2015 increased by 495,000 from a year earlier to 25,880,000, and the employment rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 65.9 percent. By industry, manufacturing and services continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to drive employment growth, and temporary and daily workers also increased, while self-employed workers decreased.
Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,000
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(thousands)
(millions)
800
27 26
600
25
400 24 200 23
0
22
-200 -400 2006.1
21 2007.1
2008.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
February 2016
21
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Original data
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
Employment by industry
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
100
80
71.1
71.2
70.6
69.7
69.4
69.3
69.6
69.7
69.6
69.5
69.8
70.8
71.5
71.4
70.8
70.2
70.0
69.9
69.9
70.2
70.2
70.1
70.6
71.2
6.8
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1
17.3
17.2
17.0
16.7
16.8
16.8
16.8
16.7
16.8
16.8
16.8
17.4
17.6
17.6
17.3
17.2
17.0
17.1
17.2
17.2
17.2
17.4
17.3
17.6
4.5 0 4.4 2014.1 2
5.3 3
6.1 4
6.4 5
6.5 6
6.2 7
6.2 8
6.2 9
6.2 10
5.8 11
4.2 3.9 4.1 12 2015.1 2
4.9 3
5.5 4
5.9 5
5.9 6
5.8 7
5.7 8
5.7 9
5.6 10
5.1 11
4.0 12
60
40
20
Services
Construction
Manufacturing
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.2
4.3
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.4
(%) 3.9
22.1
22.0
22.3
22.2
22.1
22.1
22.1
22.4
22.2
22.1
21.9
21.5
21.5
21.5
21.9
21.8
21.8
21.6
21.5
21.5
21.3
21.2
21.0
20.8
6.3
6.0
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.7
6.2
6.5
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.9
60 19.2
19.4
19.6
19.7
19.7
19.5
20.1
19.7
19.8
19.7
19.7
19.7
19.5
19.4
19.5
19.4
19.3
19.5
19.7
19.5
19.7
19.8
20.2
19.8
48.3
48.2
47.8
47.3
47.1
47.2
46.8
47.0
47.1
47.2
47.3
48.5
49.0
49.0
48.5
48.1 47.8
47.9
48.0
48.5
48.6
48.7
48.7
49.7
2014.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2
3
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
80
40
20
0
Unpaid family workers
22
Self-employed workers
12 2015.1
Daily workers
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
4
5
Temporary workers
Permanent workers
2011 2012 2013
2014 Q4
Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3
Number of employed (millions)
Dec Annual Q1
2015 Q3
Q2
Q4
Nov Dec
24.24 24.68 25.07 25.60 25.93 25.77 25.38 25.94 25.27 26.10 26.24 26.14 26.25 25.88
Employment rate (%)
59.1 59.4 59.5 60.2 60.9 60.4 59.4 60.6 59.0 60.7 60.9 60.5 60.8 59.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
59.1 59.4 59.5 60.2 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.5 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.3 60.8
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
415
437
386
533
517
422
422
337
354
308
310
376
285
495
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
440
451
394
601
638
531
516
444
441
435
419
482
453
522
- Manufacturing
63
14
79
146
194
129
142
156
139
147
164
176
190
146
- Construction
-2
22
-19
42
57
72
83
27
72
44
11
-19
-37
7
- Services
386
416
318
424
403
336
292
250
222
235
234
309
284
354
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-25
-14
-8
- Wage workers
427
315
路 Permanent workers
575
路 Temporary workers
-78
路 Daily workers
-68 -121 -109
-94 -107
-87 -127 -115 -106 -168
-27
483
548
519
476
464
487
442
422
521
565
503
609
436
615
443
333
355
372
432
355
332
505
536
496
548
-2
-96
140
226
141
129
54
82
3
1
129
174
113
-70 -120
-37
-35
-40
-20
-38
1
4
87
15 -100 -167
-52
-11
121
-97
-15
-3
-54
-42 -151
1
124
-67
1
19
7
-6
-89
-49
-37 -136 -135 -152
-94
- Male
238
234
186
266
268
196
184
132
141
145
111
132
76
183
- Female
177
203
200
267
249
226
238
205
213
163
199
244
209
312
- 15 to 29
-35
-36
-50
77
102
56
41
68
32
90
50
100
90
111
- 30 to 39
-47
-31
-21
-21
-7
-29
-30
-38
-1
-56
-60
-36
-50
-11
- 40 to 49
57
11
22
38
15
4
3
-14
-47
-15
1
7
-4
-9
- 50 to 59
291
270
254
239
215
190
209
149
177
138
145
135
139
142
- 60 or more
149
222
181
200
192
201
199
172
192
150
174
169
110
263
- Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers
-88 -114 -211 -189 -218 -114
Source: Statistics Korea
Unemployment rate 6
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
5
4
3
2 2006.1
Original data
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
February 2016
23
The number of unemployed persons in December was down 19,000 year-on-year to 868,000, and the unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 3.2 percent. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged or fell year-on-year in all age groups except those in their 60s.
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual
2014 Q3 Q4
Dec Annual Q1
Q2
2015 Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
929 845
829
868
11
-19
-3
22
-10
-6
-11
-9
Number of unemployed (thousands)
855
820
807
937
884
854
886
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
-65
-35
-13
137
107
121
113
- Male
-48
-26
-6
49
37
59
56
24
25
42
31
- Female
-17
-9
-7
80
70
63
58
16
32
23
14
976 1,089 1,042 40
58
65
45
-9
Unemployment rate (%)
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.4
3.6
4.1
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.2
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
- 15 to 29
7.6
7.5
8.0
9.0
8.6
8.3
9.0
9.2
10.3
9.9
8.4
8.0
8.1
8.4
- 30 to 39
3.4
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.7
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.7
- 40 to 49
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.8
2.2
- 50 to 59
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.4
1.9
1.8
1.9
- 60 or more
2.6
2.4
1.8
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.5
4.1
2.2
2.0
2.1
1.9
2.1
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in December was up 11,000 from a year earlier to 16,470,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 61.9 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 99,000, y-o-y) and childcare (down 103,000, y-o-y) decreased, while those due to rest (up 71,000, y-o-y) increased.
Labor force participation rate 65
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Original data
24
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
2011 2012 2013
2014 Q4
Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3
Economically inactive population (millions)
Dec Annual Q1
2015 Q3
Q2
Q4
Nov
Dec
15.95 16.08 16.22 15.98 15.76 16.07 16.46 16.11 16.47 15.84 15.92 16.19 16.10 16.47
Labor force participation rate (%)
61.1
61.3
61.5
62.4 63.0 62.4 61.5 62.6 61.5 63.2 63.0 62.5 62.7 61.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
61.1
61.3
61.5
62.4 62.5 62.4 62.5 62.6 62.8 62.3 62.5 62.6 62.5 63.0
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
112
128
141 -246 -222 -101
- Childcare - Housework
-5 101
-2 123
1 -39 -3 -131
-78
128
72
150
162
128
197
8 -45
41 -91
50 -41
3 -19
-63 -29
-73 -103 23 -63
-41 -99
-31 -67
-15 -93
11
- Education
-51
-12
77
-81 -109
-72
-91 -146 -141 -213 -112 -118 -131
-99
- Old age - Rest
-45 182
148 -53
54 -7
93 -92
89 -15
80 52
165 71
91 -65
109 141
68 154
95 151
103 123
171 136
169 210
Source: Statistics Korea
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market
The KOSPI fell 2.5 percent in January 2016 from 1,961 points at the end of December 2015 to 1,912 points at the end of January, due to the volatile stock markets in China and falling international oil prices. The KOSDAQ rose 0.1 percent month-on-month from 682 points to 683 points due to net buying by foreign investors and the Bank of Japan’s rate cut to minus 0.1 percent.
Stock prices 2,200
(monthly average)
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
KOSPI
2016.1
KOSDAQ
February 2016
25
(Closing rate)
Dec 2015
KOSPI Jan 2016
Change1
Dec 2015
KOSDAQ Jan 2016
Stock price index (points)
1,961.3
1,912.1
-49.2 (-2.5%)
682.4
682.8
0.4 (0.1%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,242.8
1,207.5
-35.4 (-2.8%)
201.6
201.9
0.3 (0.1%)
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
Change1
4.0
4.8
0.8 (20.6%)
3.2
3.5
0.4 (11.0%)
32.2
31.7
-0.5 (-1.6%)
9.9
10.3
0.4 (4.0%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate
The dollar-won exchange rate rose as high as 1,214 won in January affected by a weak yuan and heightened risk aversion among investors amid falling international oil prices, but the exchange rate closed the month at 1,199.1 won as investors’ risk aversion eased in line with rebounding oil prices and the Bank of Japan’s rate cut to minus 0.1 percent on January 29. The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose to 995.1 won despite the yen’s depreciation against the dollar after the Bank of Japan’s rate cut, as the won fell against the dollar at a faster pace than the yen. (Closing rate)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Dec
2015 Dec
2016 Jan
Change1
Dollar-Won
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,099.3
1,172.5
1,199.1
-2.2
100 Yen-Won
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
913.0
974.1
995.1
-2.1
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
Foreign exchange rates 1,800 (month-end, \) 1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Dollar-Won
26
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
100 Yen-Won
9.3 Bond market
3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 1.66 percent at the end of December to 1.56 percent at the end of January. Treasury bond yields dropped as investors’ appetite for safe haven assets increased amid volatility in stock markets in China and falling international oil prices.
Interest rates 10
Source: Bank of Korea
(monthly average, yearly, %)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2016.1
2015.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
3-yr corporate bond yield
(Closing rate, %)
Call rate (1 day) CD (91 days) Treasury bonds (3 yrs) Corporate bonds (3 yrs) Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
2009 Dec 2.01 2.88 4.44 5.56 4.98
2010 Dec 2.51 2.80 3.38 4.27 4.08
2011 Dec 3.29 3.55 3.34 4.21 3.46
2012 Dec 2.77 2.89 2.82 3.29 2.97
2013 Dec 2.52 2.66 2.86 3.29 3.23
2014 Dec 2.03 2.13 2.10 2.43 2.28
2015 Nov 1.50 1.66 1.79 2.17 1.96
Dec 1.52 1.67 1.66 2.11 1.81
Jan 1.50 1.65 1.56 2.04 1.70
2016 Change1 -2 -2 -10 -7 -11
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market
M2 (monthly average) in November 2015 rose 7.7 percent from a year earlier. Private sector credit expanded at a slower pace as depository institutions’ securities investment contracted slightly due to increased concerns over the risk of margin trading, despite continued increases in lending to households. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
M1² M2 Lf³
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
16.3 10.3 7.9
11.8 8.7 8.2
6.6 4.2 5.3
3.8 5.2 7.8
9.5 4.8 6.9
10.9 6.6 7.0
2015 Sep 21.4 9.6 10.4
Oct 21.5 8.8 10.2
Nov 20.6 7.7 9.2
Nov1 682.9 2,244.3 3,076.2
1. Balance at end November 2015, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
February 2016
27
Total money supply Source: Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30
20
10
0
-10 -20 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Reserve money
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
M1
Lf
Bank deposits in December 2015 rose at a faster pace than the previous month (up 5.4 trillion won → up 20.7 trillion won), as money flowed in from the public sector for year-end government fiscal spending, and banks increased deposits to meet their loan-to-deposit ratio requirements at the end of the year. Asset management company (AMC) deposits fell at a faster pace than the previous month, as corporations withdrew funds to improve their financial ratios at the end of the year.
Deposits in financial institutions 60
Source: Bank of Korea
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)
Bank deposits AMC deposits
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
54.8 -27.6
36.9 -16.7
58.9 -16.6
37.0 18.8
41.0 17.7
115.4 47.0
1. Balance at end December 2015
28
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Sep 14.4 -7.5
Oct 11.9 6.4
2015 Nov 5.4 -3.8
Dec 20.7 -4.9
Dec1 1,391.1 421.7
10. Balance of payments
Korea’s current account in December 2015 (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $7.46 billion, staying in the black for 46 consecutive months, and surpluses reached US $105.96 billion for the entire year of 2015. The goods account surplus rose slightly to US $10.77 billion in December from US $10.47 billion in the previous month, as exports of goods including semiconductors, steel and automobiles continued to decrease, while goods imports fell at a faster pace. Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) -11.9 (Nov 2015) → -11.9 (Dec) Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) -17.0 (Nov 2015) → -21.0 (Dec) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -14.1 (total), 10.3 (mobile phones), -8.5 (automobiles), -17.5 (semiconductors), -23.4 (steel), -28.3 (oil products) Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -19.2 (total), -26.8 (commodities), -15.8 (capital goods), 4.0 (consumer goods)
Current account balance 15
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5
0
-5 2006.1
2007.1
Goods account
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Services account
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Current account
The services account deficit expanded from US $1.26 billion to US $1.70 billion as the transportation and travel accounts worsened, despite an increase in construction account surpluses. Services account (US $ billion, Nov → Dec) -0.55 → -0.55 (manufacturing), 0.21 → -0.10 (transportation), -0.72 → -0.95 (travel), 0.78 → 1.34 (construction), -0.01 → -0.22 (intellectual property rights), -0.88 → -1.14 (other businesses)
February 2016
29
Travel balance 4
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Travel balance
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Travel revenue
2015.1
Travel payment
The primary income account went from a surplus of US $0.89 billion to a deficit of US $0.59 billion, due to increased dividend payments. The secondary income account deficit increased from US $0.19 billion to US $1.02 billion. (US $ billion)
2013 Annual Annual
Current account - Goods balance - Services balance - Primary income balance - Secondary income balance
81.15 82.78 -6.50 9.06 -4.19
84.37 88.89 -4.02 4.49 -4.98
2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Dec Q1 Q2 Q3 Q41 20.66 26.45 6.95 22.44 27.92 29.11 26.49 20.98 25.14 7.56 24.22 33.68 30.64 31.84 -0.46 -0.38 -0.64 -4.39 -3.09 -3.56 -4.67 1.40 2.93 0.89 3.83 -1.56 2.73 0.90 -1.25 -1.24 -0.86 -1.22 -1.11 -0.70 -1.58
Nov 9.91 10.47 -1.26 0.89 -0.19
Dec1 Annual1 7.46 105.96 10.77 120.37 -1.70 -15.71 -0.59 5.90 -1.02 -4.61
1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account in December (preliminary) saw an increase of US $7.76 billion in net assets. Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion) 10.63 (Dec 2014) → 10.29 (Jun 2015) → 9.99 (Jul) → 9.05 (Aug) → 10.54 (Sep) → 11.08 (Oct) → 8.72 (Nov) → 7.76 (Dec) * Positive figures represent increases in assets/liabilities, and negative figures represent decreases.
Net FDI outflows expanded from US $0.90 billion a month earlier to US $1.42 billion as Korean FDI (US $1.28 billion → US $3.65 billion) increased more than inbound FDI (US $0.38 billion → US $2.24 billion). In portfolio investment, net outflows increased from US $5.13 billion to US $7.46 billion as foreign investment in Korean shares decreased at a faster pace compared to the previous month (down US $1.72 billion → down US $4.04 billion). Derivatives net outflows increased (down US $0.61 billion → up US $0.42 billion), and other investment net outflows grew at a slower rate (up US $1.66 billion → up US $0.38 billion) as the inflows of loans paid back increased faster than the outflows of loans paid back. The current account surplus is expected to decrease month-on-month in January 2016 as net exports dropped to US $5.33 billion.
30
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Capital & financial account balance 15
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Direct investment
2010.1
2011.1
Portfolio investment
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Financial derivatives
2015.1
Capital & financial account
11. Prices
11.1 Consumer prices
Consumer prices rose 0.8 percent year-on-year in January 2016, a slower pace than the 1.3 percent of the previous month, due to falling international oil prices, subdued inflationary pressure from a cigarette tax increase and a public gas price cut.
Consumer price inflation 7
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
2015.1
2016.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Consumer price inflation
(%)
2015 Month-on-Month Year-on-Year
May 0.5 0.3
Jun 0.7 0.0
Jul 0.7 0.2
Aug 0.7 0.2
Sep 0.6 -0.2
Oct 0.9 0.0
Nov 1.0 -0.1
Dec 1.3 0.3
2016 Jan 0.8 0.0
Source: Statistics Korea
February 2016
31
Contribution to consumer price inflation 5
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%p)
3
1
-1 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured products
Housing rents
Public services
Personal services
Public utilities
Oil product prices fell 3.2 percent month-on-month amid falling international oil prices. The year-on-year decrease of oil product prices, however, slowed from 15.6 percent a month earlier to 10.3 percent, due to a low base effect from a year ago when oil product prices dropped 9.0 percent month-on-month.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Nov (y-o-y, %) Dec (y-o-y, %) - Contribution (%p)
1.3 0.8 -
Manufactured Agricultural, livestock Oil products & fishery products products 0.4 -15.6 2.9 -0.8 -10.3 2.4 -0.26 -0.43 0.18
Public utilities -7.1 -8.1 -0.41
Public services 2.0 2.2 0.31
Personal services 2.3 2.2 0.71
Housing rents 2.9 2.9 0.28
The diminishing effect of the higher cigarette tax on inflation and the government’s 8.5 percent cut in public gas prices that became effective from January 1 dragged down January consumer price inflation by 0.58 percentage points and 0.15 percentage points year-on-year, respectively.
Prices 16
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(y-o-y, %)
12 8 4 0 -4 -8 2006.1
2007.1
Consumer price inflation
32
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Core inflation
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Producer price inflation
(percentage change from same period in previous year)
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products Consumer prices excluding food and energy
2012
2013
2014
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
2015
1.6 1.5
1.6 1.5
2.0 1.7
2.2 2.4
2016 Jan 1.7 1.9
Dec 2.4 2.8
Source: Statistics Korea
Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices increased at a slower pace despite cold weather and heavy snow, as agricultural product supplies and bargain promotions increased ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Core inflation stayed just below 2 percent.
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
International oil prices fell to the lowest level in 12 years in January 2016 due to the lifting of sanctions on Iran, slumping economic indicators in China and the strong dollar. Dubai crude prices fell to US $22.8 per barrel on January 21, the lowest since 2003, as the lifting of sanctions on Iran caused concerns over a supply glut, but oil prices rebounded at the end of the month due to the expectations that oil producing countries could agree to cut oil production. Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 30.4 (1st week Jan) → 26.7 (2nd week) → 23.9 (3rd week) → 26.5 (4th week)
International oil prices 160
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
(US $/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Dubai crude
WTI
(US $/barrel, period average)
Dubai crude Brent crude WTI crude
2013
2014
Annual
Annual
Annual
105.2 108.7 98.0
96.6 99.4 92.9
50.7 53.6 48.8
Q1 51.9 55.1 48.6
Q2 60.5 63.5 58.0
2015 Q3 49.9 51.3 46.5
Oct 45.8 49.3 46.3
Nov 41.6 45.9 42.9
Dec 34.9 38.9 37.3
2016 Jan 26.9 31.9 31.8
Source: Korea PDS
February 2016
33
Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall amid decreasing international oil prices. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,402.3 (1st week Jan) → 1,391.9 (2nd week) → 1,380.2 (3rd week) → 1,370.0 (4th week) International gasoline prices (US $/barrel) 50.9 (4th week Dec) → 51.4 (5th week) → 51.0 (1st week Jan) → 47.4 (2nd week) Dollar-won exchange rate (won) 1,177.6 (4th week Dec) → 1,169.0 (5th week) → 1,187.5 (1st week Jan) → 1,206.6 (2nd week) (Won/liter, period average)
2013
2014 1,510.4
Q1 1,485.4
Q2 1,543.2
2015 Q3 1,544.0
Annual
Annual
Annual
Gasoline prices
1,924.5
1,827.3
Diesel prices
1,729.6
1,637.7
1,299.6
1,312.6
1,344.2
1,309.3
Oct 1,498.7
Nov 1,473.6
Dec 1,432.9
2016 Jan 1,385.3
1,251.9
1,235.0
1,211.0
1,157.3
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
(thousand won/B)
(US $/B)
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
Corn prices decreased in January as a supply glut was expected to continue with declining imports of corn fodder by China. China National Grain and Oils Information Center forecast that China’s corn imports would decrease 26 percent to around 3.5 million tons in 2016 compared to the previous year. Wheat and soybean prices remained nearly unchanged year-on-year. International grain price increases in January (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -2.0 (corn), -0.4 (wheat), -0.0 (soybean)
International prices of nonferrous metals were down, as demand from China decreased and production cuts were expected to be delayed due to lower production costs being helped by falling international oil prices and the strong dollar. In Chile, the largest copper producing country, copper production costs
34
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
in dollar terms dropped 9.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015, while Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest nickel producer, decided not to cut its production. Nonferrous metal price increases in January (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -6.3 (tin), -3.6 (copper), -2.4 (nickel), -1.0 (aluminum)
International commodity prices
Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 4000
470 430
3000
390 350
2000
310 270 230
1000
190 150
0
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
CRB (left)
2016.1
Reuters index (right)
(Period average)
Reuters Index1 (sep 18,1931=100)
2013
2014
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
2,774
2,523
2,328
2,368
Q2
2015 Q3
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 Jan
2,394
2,287
2,279
2,285
2,243
2,147
1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
Apartment prices nationwide remained unchanged month-on-month in January 2016. Apartment prices stayed unchanged in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.0%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.0%) and Incheon (up 0.0%). Apartment prices also did not change in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, which include the five metropolitan cities (up 0.0%) and the eight provinces (up 0.1%). Apartment price increases in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.1), Daegu (-0.1), Gwangju (0.1), Daejeon (-0.1), Ulsan (0.2)
February 2016
35
Apartment sales prices by region
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
3
2
1
0
-1 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
Nationwide
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2015.1
7
2016.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
apartment prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1.9 -1.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.4
6.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3
0.0 -3.0 -2.9 -3.5 -2.3
0.3 -1.1 -1.4 -1.1 -1.7
1.7 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.1
3.5 4.4 4.6 5.2 3.9
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Aug 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.9
2.7
0.2
0.2
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
7
Jul
2015 Sep 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Oct 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
Nov 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4
Dec 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
2016 Jan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices rose 0.1 percent month-on-month nationwide in January. Rental prices rose 0.2 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.1 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.1), Seocho (0.1), Songpa (0.0), Guro (0.6), Gangseo (0.5), Dobong (0.4)
apartment rental prices 2010
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011
2012
2013
2014
7.1 6.3 6.4 7.6 5.1
12.3 11.0 10.8 11.1 10.6
3.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.8
4.7 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.4
3.4 4.7 3.6 3.3 3.8
4.8 7.1 7.2 7.9 6.5
0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5
Aug 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
2.2
2.8
0.2
0.2
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
36
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Jul
2015 Sep 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
Oct 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8
Nov 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
Dec 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5
2016 Jan 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3
(m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1
-2 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
Nationwide
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2015.1
7
2016.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Apartment sales transactions were down 10.2 percent from 97,813 transactions in November to 87,871 transactions in December and decreased 3.6 percent from 91,130 recorded a year ago.
Apartment sales transactions
(Thousands)
2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nationwide
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
67
82
61
71
84
99
79
79
112 120 110 110 111
94
86
106
98
88
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Monthly apartment transaction volume 160
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
(thousands)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
Nationwide
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
February 2016
37
12.2 Land market
Land prices nationwide rose 0.25 percent month-on-month in December.
Land prices increased 0.20 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.24%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.17%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.17 (May 2015) → 0.19 (Jun) → 0.20 (Jul) → 0.18 (Aug) → 0.18 (Sep) → 0.21 (Oct) → 0.20 (Nov) → 0.20 (Dec)
Land prices increased 0.34 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Busan (up 0.34%), Daegu (up 0.39%), Daejeon (up 0.39%) and Jeju (up 2.09%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.20 (May 2015) → 0.25 (Jun) → 0.24 (Jul) → 0.21 (Aug) → 0.22 (Sep) → 0.25 (Oct) → 0.32 (Nov) → 0.34 (Dec)
Land prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014
2015 Q4 Annual Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 0.49 0.53 2.40 0.59 0.60 0.72 0.22 0.24 0.25
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3
Nationwide
0.96
1.05
1.17
0.96
1.14
1.96
Seoul Gyeonggi Incheon
1.40 1.22 1.99
0.53 1.49 1.43
0.97 1.47 0.66
0.38 1.04 0.46
1.21 0.91 0.87
2.66 0.69 0.67 2.69 0.69 0.69 0.72 0.24 0.24 0.24 1.24 0.27 0.33 1.73 0.41 0.43 0.52 0.18 0.17 0.17 1.35 0.32 0.40 1.95 0.53 0.54 0.50 0.18 0.17 0.14
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Land prices by region 15 12
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(%)
9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1996
1997
National average
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Metropolitan city
2006
2007
2008
City
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
County
There were 274,000 land transactions in December, up 5.8 percent from the previous month and up 6.4 percent from a year ago (257,000).
38
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Land transactions decreased month-on-month in the Seoul metropolitan area including Seoul (down 3.1%) and Incheon (down 6.0%), while transactions increased in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Daejeon (up 11.5%), Jeju (up 24.7%), North Jeolla Province (up 19.9%) and North Chungcheong Province (up 15.2%). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 41.8 percent of total land transactions, recorded 115,000 in December, up 19.5 percent month-on-month and up 14.8 percent compared with a year ago (100,000).
Land and consumer prices since 1970s 60
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(y‐o‐y, %)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Land price inflation
Consumer price inflation
Land transactions 2010
2014
2011
(Land lots, thousands)
2012
2013
2014
2015 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 279 290 241 229 263 259 274 33 36 29 27 31 29 28 65 62 56 58 63 61 62 13 15 13 12 14 13 12
Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Nationwide 187 Seoul 16 Gyeonggi 41 Incheon 8
208 18 43 10
170 13 33 8
187 17 37 8
220 22 46 10
257 219 199 278 293 262 23 20 21 33 36 34 53 45 43 62 66 60 9 8 8 12 13 12
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Land transaction volume 500,000
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2006.1
2007.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
February 2016
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
Industrial output in December 2015 increased 1.2 percent month-on-month and 2.3 percent year-on-year. Output rose month-on-month in mining & manufacturing (up 1.3%), construction (up 7.4%) and public administration (up 4.7%), but stayed unchanged in services.
Index of all industry production 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2015.1
Index of all industry production (y-o-y)
2015 Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
May -0.6 0.1
Jun 0.6 1.4
Jul 0.6 0.3
Aug 0.3 1.2
Sep 2.5 4.5
Oct -1.3 2.5
Nov1 -0.4 2.2
Dec1 1.2 2.3
Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
125.0 -0.1
125.2 0.2
125.9 0.6
126.8 0.7
128.2 1.1
129.1 0.7
129.5 0.3
129.8 0.2
99.8 -0.5
99.5 -0.3
99.7 0.2
100.1 0.4
100.8 0.7
101.1 0.3
101.0 -0.1
100.9 -0.1
Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
132.1 0.8
132.3 0.2
133.0 0.5
133.9 0.7
135.3 1.0
136.3 0.7
137.0 0.5
137.0 0.0
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
104.0 0.3
103.6 -0.4
103.5 -0.1
103.6 0.1
104.2 0.6
104.4 0.2
104.3 -0.1
103.8 -0.5
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
1. Preliminary
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index was down 0.1 points month-on-month to 100.9. Three components of the coincident composite index, such as service output, retail sales and nonfarm payroll employment, increased, while the other four components, including mining & manufacturing production, the value of construction completed and imports, decreased.
40
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Components of the coincident composite index in December (m-o-m) service output (0.3%), retail sales (0.7%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.2%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.6%), value of construction completed (-0.4%), domestic shipments (-0.6%), imports (-0.8%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.5 points month-on-month to 103.8. Six components of the leading composite index, such as the ratio of export to import prices and the ratio of job openings to job seekers, were up, while three others, such as the consumer expectations index, domestic shipments of machinery and the value of construction orders received, were down. Components of the leading composite index in December (m-o-m) ratio of export to import prices (0.5%), international commodity prices (3.7%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (1.8%p), KOSPI (0.5%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.02%p), inventory circulation indicator (0.0%p), consumer expectations index (-0.6p), domestic shipments of machinery (-1.4%), value of construction orders received (-29.5%)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
February 2016
41
Policy Issue
Government Unveils New Round of Investment Boosting Measures
The government unveiled its new round of measures to boost the private sector investment following the 9th Presidential Meeting to Promote Trade and Investment held on February 17.
Strategies The new round of measures, drawn up to encourage investment in promising areas and subsequently stimulate job creation, focus on - providing investment opportunities in promising projects - promoting investment in new growth engines, such as services and the farming and fishery sector - attracting investment in the Saemangeum area
Key measures in detail 1. Help restart suspended projects: A total of 6.2 trillion won worth of investment expected in six projects that have been suspended due to regulatory difficulties or lack of experience - Attract 3.0 trillion won of investment to the R&D complex construction in Yangjae and Woomyoun, southern part of Seoul, by introducing special regulations, including eased floor area ratio requirements - Enable 1.4 trillion won of investment in the K-Culture Valley project, which has been suspended due to regulations regarding public land use, by extending the maximum rental period for public land from five years to 20 years for cultural and tourist facilities - Attract 800 billion won of investment to the development of an automobile repair complex in the Seoul metropolitan area by removing the green belt from the area - Create 600 billion won worth of investment opportunities and at the same time launch a public rental housing construction project by settling disagreements between administrative bodies: The government will provide a decent alternative to accelerate the moving of the industrial zone located where the public rental housing complex is planned. 42
Policy Issue
- Enable 300 billion won worth of investment in building an “on the road tire performance test facility” in the Taeahn Business City by changing the city development plan - Allow solar panels to be installed on the 39 reservoirs located in Agriculture Promotion Zones and provide 100 billion won of financial support
2. Grow promising service markets, such as sports and healthcare, and promote the sharing economy1 Sports - Revise regulations regarding the use of green belts, rivers and mountains to promote the building of sports facilities - Investments in sports facilities to receive tax deduction of the same rate as the manufacturing sector receives - Increase R&D funds2 and other financial support3 to promote the development of new materials, sporting goods and equipment - Encourage sports enterprises to participate in high-tech material development projects4 - Classify electric bicycles as bicycles, instead of motor vehicles, to allow the use of bike roads - Develop the sports management industry: The government will establish guidelines for managing a sports agency, and will revise the regulation according to which only a lawyer can qualify as a sports agent and works for only one player.
Healthcare and nonmedical care - Provide guidelines to help people clearly distinguish between medical care and nonmedical care, and promote the development of the nonmedical care market - Reduce approval-related uncertainties through an advance notification system to promote the development of high-tech medical services - New medicines not to be bound by the current low medicine price policy
1. Market outlooks for these industries are very bright. Market outlooks: Sports (trillion won, domestic market): 41 (2013) → 50 (2017) Biomedicine (trillion won, global market): 330 (2013) → 635 (2020) Sharing economy (US $ billion, global market): 5.1 (2013) → 335 (2025) 2. Government R&D funds to be increased from 13 billion won in 2015 to 14.1 billion won in 2016 3. Sports Industry Support Fund to be increased from 38.5 billion won in 2015 to 198.5 billion won in 2018 Loans from the Sports Industry Promotion Fund to be increased from 18 billion won in 2015 to 54 billion won in 2016 with a 0.5 percentage point reduced interest rate 4. 116.8 billion won worth of the Core Industrial Material Technology Development Project and 32.4 billion won worth of the Materials and Components Development Project
February 2016
43
Policy Issue - Extend the facility investment tax deduction given to pharmaceutical companies until 2019 - Eased KOSDAQ listing requirements5 to be applied to bio-ventures: Companies with less than 3 billion won of annual sales will be allowed to stay listed for the maximum of five years.
Sharing economy - Improve regulations and build information systems to support the development of the sharing economy, such as shared transport, accommodations vacancy sharing and equity crowdfunding
3. Enhance farming sector competitiveness: Promote large-scale investment by the private sector and transform the farming sector into a new industry which involves distribution, IT and development - Build a specialized zone for agriculture which is equipped with high-tech infrastructure and improved regulations - Attract large-scale investment in seafood farming, and promote large-scale fish farming overseas - Support the transformation of the farming sector into a lucrative industry: Farmers can use public sector distribution channels6 to sell their products and private development of fishing ports will become legitimate - Promote the development of high-end products: Introduce R&D tax incentives and draw up guidelines for organic farming
4. Attract investment in the Saemangeum area: Provide all-round support from financial incentives to deregulation to create a most favorable environment for doing business - Attract domestic enterprises to the area: Revise laws to offer long term rental contracts for spaces for as long as 100 years and increase financial support for facility investments by 10 percentage points, at most, compared with other areas - Accelerate land reclamation: Revise laws to provide developers with corporate tax reduction7 - Relax regulations: Work on deregulation according to the negative list approach and ease the required floor area ratio by 150 percent
5. Annual sales of 3 billion won or more 6. For example, public agency-owned TV shopping channels 7. Five year tax reduction: 50 percent reduction for the first three years and 25 percent for the remaining two years
44
Policy Issue
Economic News Briefing
Korea to increase spending in Q1 Fitch affirms Korea’s sovereign credit rating at AAKorea responds to lifting of Iran sanctions Neither global market jitters nor North’s threat can damage Korean economy Korean FDI rises 15% in 2015 ‘Omnibus account’ for foreign investors to be introduced Government unveils its 2016 international economic affairs policies of supporting exports Korea grows 0.6% in Q4 (Advanced)
Korea to increase spending in Q1 The government announced on February 3 that total public sector spending will be increased by over 21 trillion won in the first quarter of 2016 to stimulate the economy: 6 trillion won in fiscal spending and 15.5 trillion won in public financial institutions’ support. To stimulate private consumption, the government will reintroduce the luxury goods sales tax cut for vehicles, effective until the end of June 2016, and will organize a large scale shopping event to attract more visitors during the Visit Korea Years (2016-2018).
Fitch affirms Korea’s sovereign credit rating at AAFitch announced on February 2 that it would maintain Korea’s sovereign credit rating at AA-. The outlook on the long-term rating continues to be stable as well. Fitch cited both positive factors, such as Korea’s strong macroeconomic environment and external sector strength, and negative factors, such as Korea’s low per capita GDP relative to other countries with similar credit ratings and geopolitical risks stemming from North Korea, as the key rating drivers.
Korea responds to lifting of Iran sanctions The government announced its plan to promote trade with Iran following the lifting of international economic sanctions on Iran on January 16, which include providing export financing for goods and infrastructure construction, offering trade insurance, jointly establishing assembly plants in Iran with Iranian companies and strengthening economic cooperation in industries such as shipping, port development, healthcare, ICT, food, culture and sports. The Korea-Iran Joint Economic Commission Meeting, an annual meeting suspended since 2006, has been resumed on February 29.
Neither global market jitters nor North’s threat can damage Korean economy On February 22, Deputy Prime Minister Yoo Il Ho held a meeting with foreign journalists and discussed the issues the Korean economy has currently faced with: international financial market volatility and threats from North Korea. At the meeting, Minister Yoo confirmed Korea’s financial market stability as it has remained stable compared to other major economies amid increasing volatility in global financial markets and has been quick to absorb shocks from North’s provocations. 46
Economic News Briefing
Korean FDI rises 15% in 2015 Korean foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 15.0 percent from US $35.00 billion to US $40.23 billion in 2015 compared to a year ago. By industry, FDI rose in finance & insurance (up 65.5%), manufacturing (up 7.6%) and mining (up 19.3%), and fell in real estate & renting (down 35.3%). By region, FDI in the top three destinations, which include Asia (up 51.3%), North America (up 3.2%) and Latin America (up 34.6%), all increased, while FDI in Europe (down 42.7%) declined. (US $ billion, according to prior notification)
FDI (y-o-y, %)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
45.74
39.65
35.64
35.00
40.23
32.8
-13.3
-10.1
-1.8
15.0
‘Omnibus account’ for foreign investors to be introduced The Financial Services Commission (FSC) announced on February 1 its plan to introduce an ‘omnibus account’, a single account opened by a global asset management company or securities company for the purpose of consolidating trading orders and settlements from multiple clients in Korean stock markets. The omnibus account system will allow foreign retail investors or small- and medium-sized institutional investors to invest in Korean stocks more easily through global brokerage companies and will increase convenience for global asset management firms.
Government unveils its 2016 international economic affairs policies of supporting exports The government announced on January 28 the 2016 policies on international economic affairs, which focus on exploring new markets, enhancing export competitiveness and expanding economic development contributions. The government will establish a roadmap for expanding into new markets, and will strengthen export competitiveness by promoting the development of value-added consumer goods, encouraging the use of free trade agreements (FTA) and addressing difficulties with customs clearance and nontariff barriers. In addition, the government will continue to improve its development cooperation programs such as the Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF) and Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP), which will not only increase aid efficiency but also provide Korean enterprises with increased opportunities in new countries. February 2016
47
Korea grows 0.6% in Q4 (Advanced) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.0 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to advanced data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on January 26. For the year, the Korean economy grew 2.6 percent in 2015. Manufacturing grew 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, led by oil and chemical products as well as semiconductors. Services grew 0.8 percent, led by wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage and healthcare & social welfare services. Agriculture, forestries & fisheries declined 1.4 percent and construction fell 0.4 percent. Private consumption rose 1.5 percent, led by durable goods and services, and facility investment rose 0.9 percent as gains in transportation equipment investment offset declines in machinery investment. Meanwhile, construction investment fell 6.1 percent due to weak civil engineering works. Exports rose 2.1 percent due to increased chemical products and mobile phones, and imports were up 2.8 percent, led by oil and chemical products. GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period) 1
20151
2014 Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
GDP
3.3
1.1 (3.9)2
0.5 (3.4)2
0.8 (3.3)2
0.3 (2.7)2
2.6
0.8 (2.5)2
0.3 (2.2)2
1.3 (2.7)2
0.6 (3.0)2
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
2.6
-2.2
-2.0
2.0
2.8
-1.6
3.4
-12.2
6.5
-1.4
Manufacturing
4.0
2.2
1.1
-0.9
0.0
1.4
0.4
1.2
0.1
0.6
Construction
0.6
1.4
0.1
0.9
-3.0
3.2
2.0
0.0
5.6
-0.4
Services3
3.1
0.9
0.3
1.2
0.6
2.8
0.9
0.0
1.0
0.8
Private consumption
1.8
0.4
-0.4
0.8
0.5
2.1
0.6
-0.2
1.2
1.5
Government consumption
2.8
0.1
0.6
2.1
0.2
3.3
0.2
0.8
1.7
1.2
Facility investment
5.8
-1.4
1.3
0.2
4.0
5.2
0.2
0.5
1.8
0.9
Construction investment
1.0
5.3
0.5
0.9
-7.8
4.0
7.4
1.6
5.0
-6.1
Intellectual property investment
4.6
2.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
1.4
2.3
-0.7
0.1
0.3
Exports
2.8
1.4
1.3
-1.7
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.3
-0.6
2.1
Imports
2.1
-1.1
1.2
-0.7
0.7
3.0
0.6
0.9
1.1
2.8
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
48
Economic News Briefing
Statistical Appendices
01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
1. National accounts Period
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p 2015p
2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.6
5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 2.6 -1.6
3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 4.0 1.4
2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4
-0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.1 3.8
-2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.0 4.0
-0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 5.8 5.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.3 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.3
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.0
-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0
8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1
0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.2 -0.9 -3.6
-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4
11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5
-1.2 0.3 4.4 6.8
2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2
1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6
-3.2 4.3 4.9 6.5
1.3 8.9 7.4 3.5
-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.6
2014pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3.9 3.4 3.3 2.7
5.6 3.3 1.4 1.3
5.1 5.1 3.3 2.4
2.7 1.7 2.0 1.8
5.8 3.3 3.3 0.7
4.1 0.2 2.3 -1.5
7.2 7.7 4.2 4.2
2015pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅱ Ⅳ
2.5 2.2 2.7 3.0
6.3 -4.7 -0.7 -4.5
0.7 0.8 1.7 2.3
1.9 2.0 2.3 3.4
2.4 2.4 5.1 5.1
0.6 1.6 5.7 7.3
5.8 5.0 6.6 3.5
p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
50
(year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP
Statistical Appendices
2. Production, shipment and inventory Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change (%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change (%)
(constant prices, 2010=100)
Service production index
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015p
107.4 108.2 108.2 107.5
1.3 0.7 0.0 -0.6
107.2 108.1 107.9 107.7
1.5 0.8 -0.2 -0.2
125.2 130.7 128.4 133.8
4.4 4.4 -1.8 4.2
104.8 106.4 108.7 111.8
1.6 1.5 2.2 2.9
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.0 109.3 104.3 113.0
-0.6 0.4 0.6 2.2
106.1 109.4 104.5 112.2
-0.5 0.9 0.7 2.2
123.1 119.2 124.5 130.7
4.6 3.8 8.7 4.4
103.2 106.8 105.6 110.0
1.2 1.8 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.7 109.8 105.5 110.9
0.7 0.5 1.2 -1.9
106.5 109.3 104.8 111.0
0.4 -0.1 0.3 -1.1
130.0 128.9 129.7 128.4
5.6 8.1 4.2 -1.8
105.3 108.4 108.3 112.9
2.0 1.5 2.6 2.6
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp
105.7 108.2 105.3 110.9
-0.9 -1.5 -0.2 0.0
105.9 108.0 105.7 111.0
-0.6 -1.2 0.9 0.0
133.7 136.0 139.5 133.8
2.8 5.5 7.6 4.2
108.2 111.1 111.4 116.4
2.8 2.5 2.9 3.1
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 101.0 112.9 112.4 108.4 108.5 112.3 101.2 103.1 109.8 108.3 114.7
-4.5 3.8 3.0 2.6 -2.0 0.6 4.0 -2.6 2.0 -3.1 -3.5 1.1
105.1 101.3 113.1 111.3 108.7 107.8 109.5 101.7 103.2 109.0 109.2 114.9
-4.5 3.2 2.6 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.2 -3.1 1.8 -3.2 -2.0 2.0
132.1 129.3 130.0 131.2 130.0 128.9 133.2 130.6 129.7 130.7 129.7 128.4
2.7 3.8 5.6 8.7 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.7 4.2 3.5 0.5 -1.8
104.7 101.8 109.4 106.9 108.8 109.6 108.7 107.9 108.3 110.6 109.8 118.4
2.2 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11p 12p
108.1 96.0 113.0 109.5 105.1 110.0 108.6 101.2 106.0 111.9 108.2 112.5
1.8 -5.0 0.1 -2.6 -3.0 1.4 -3.3 0.0 2.8 1.9 -0.1 -1.9
108.1 96.6 113.1 109.5 105.5 108.9 107.8 101.9 107.4 112.1 108.2 112.7
2.9 -4.6 0.0 -1.6 -2.9 1.0 -1.6 0.2 4.1 2.8 -0.9 -1.9
132.4 133.0 133.7 135.2 134.6 136.0 138.8 138.7 139.5 138.0 138.2 133.8
0.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.5 5.5 4.2 6.2 7.6 5.6 6.6 4.2
107.1 104.6 113.0 111.2 111.4 110.6 111.3 110.4 112.4 114.1 113.3 121.9
2.4 2.8 3.3 4.0 2.4 0.9 2.4 2.3 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.0
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
February 2016
51
3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
Production capacity index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015p
106.9 108.6 110.3 111.4
2.1 1.6 1.6 1.0
97.5 95.1 94.2 92.1
-2.7 -2.5 -0.9 -2.2
78.6 76.5 76.1 74.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.1 108.3 108.8 109.3
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7
93.7 97.9 90.8 98.3
-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 0.0
77.3 76.1 75.4 77.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
109.6 109.9 110.6 111.0
1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6
92.8 96.8 91.5 95.8
-1.0 -1.1 0.8 -2.5
77.1 76.1 76.0 75.1
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp
111.2 111.3 111.4 111.7
1.5 1.3 0.7 0.6
90.1 94.8 89.8 93.7
-2.9 -2.1 -1.9 -2.2
74.4 74.2 74.7 73.5
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.7 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.8 110.9 110.9 111.1
1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4
91.9 87.5 99.0 99.8 95.6 94.9 98.7 86.8 88.9 95.8 94.1 97.6
-7.1 3.1 1.9 1.9 -3.8 -1.5 4.3 -4.3 2.2 -3.9 -4.2 0.7
77.8 76.3 77.2 77.2 74.9 76.3 77.9 74.7 75.4 74.2 74.6 76.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11p 12p
111.1 111.0 111.5 111.2 111.3 111.4 111.2 111.3 111.8 111.8 111.7 111.6
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5
93.0 81.1 96.3 95.8 91.9 96.8 94.8 85.9 88.8 95.3 91.8 94.1
1.2 -7.3 -2.7 -4.0 -3.9 2.0 -4.0 -1.0 -0.1 -0.5 -2.4 -3.6
74.1 75.1 73.9 74.1 73.2 75.2 74.7 74.1 75.2 74.0 72.8 73.8
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
52
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
Statistical Appendices
4. Consumer goods sales index
(constant prices, 2010=100)
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods
Period
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015p
107.1 107.9 109.7 113.4
2.5 0.7 1.7 3.4
116.3 116.6 122.6 135.0
5.4 0.3 5.1 10.1
103.9 106.1 105.5 104.3
-0.3 2.1 -0.6 -1.1
104.3 104.7 105.5 107.4
2.2 0.4 0.8 1.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.8 107.7 107.2 113.0
0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1
111.0 118.2 116.8 120.3
1.5 2.8 -1.4 -1.5
102.1 107.3 94.9 119.9
3.1 1.6 2.7 1.3
101.2 102.9 108.0 106.6
-1.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 108.6 108.8 115.1
2.4 0.8 1.5 1.9
117.2 121.2 123.4 128.6
5.6 2.5 5.7 6.9
100.3 104.9 96.2 120.4
-1.8 -2.2 1.4 0.4
103.8 104.3 107.5 106.5
2.6 1.4 -0.5 -0.1
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp
108.0 111.8 112.2 121.7
1.6 2.9 3.1 5.7
126.6 131.9 132.6 148.8
8.0 8.8 7.5 15.7
98.7 104.0 92.9 121.7
-1.6 -0.9 -3.4 1.1
103.4 105.8 111.2 109.0
-0.4 1.4 3.4 2.3
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 99.1 109.3 105.6 112.1 108.1 109.9 107.1 109.3 111.1 114.3 119.9
5.5 -0.4 1.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 4.6
116.1 116.9 118.5 114.2 121.8 127.5 131.1 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.7 138.1
3.4 10.4 3.2 -0.8 1.8 6.3 2.8 2.0 12.8 -1.3 7.1 15.0
100.7 92.0 108.2 105.8 111.8 97.2 95.7 91.5 101.5 116.0 120.6 124.7
-2.0 -1.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.8 -4.0 -2.3 5.7 1.4 1.8 -2.6 2.1
111.9 93.9 105.5 101.5 107.7 103.7 106.3 108.6 107.5 105.4 104.9 109.3
10.0 -5.4 2.9 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.7 -3.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11p 12p
107.3 104.4 112.4 110.8 115.6 108.9 112.2 109.2 115.3 120.3 120.7 124.1
-2.8 5.3 2.8 4.9 3.1 0.7 2.1 2.0 5.5 8.3 5.6 3.5
128.2 117.2 134.5 129.3 130.1 136.2 139.9 129.2 128.7 142.8 146.7 156.9
10.4 0.3 13.5 13.2 6.8 6.8 6.7 9.0 6.8 20.1 14.0 13.6
97.9 92.6 105.7 107.6 115.4 89.1 92.4 87.7 98.7 122.2 123.6 119.2
-2.8 0.7 -2.3 1.7 3.2 -8.3 -3.4 -4.2 -2.8 5.3 2.5 -4.4
101.7 103.6 105.0 103.5 109.0 104.9 107.9 109.3 116.4 108.9 107.2 110.9
-9.1 10.3 -0.5 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.6 8.3 3.3 2.2 1.5
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
February 2016
53
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period 2012 2013 2014 2015p
102.5 102.2 101.8 104.2
1.6 -0.3 -0.4 2.4
102.8 103.4 102.6 105.7
2.5 0.6 -0.8 3.0
102.4 101.7 101.5 103.5
1.2 -0.7 -0.2 2.0
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.0 98.7 102.4 104.7
2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2
108.3 100.9 102.6 101.8
10.7 1.8 0.1 -9.1
100.8 97.7 102.3 105.9
-1.2 -2.5 -1.5 2.4
-
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 100.3 102.4 103.9
-2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.8
103.4 103.0 100.9 103.2
-4.5 2.1 -1.7 1.4
99.5 99.2 103.0 104.2
-1.3 1.5 0.7 -1.6
-
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp
101.8 101.0 104.5 109.6
1.1 0.7 2.1 5.5
99.9 102.5 105.0 115.6
-3.4 -0.5 4.1 12.0
102.5 100.4 104.2 107.0
3.0 1.2 1.2 2.7
-
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.4 96.6 103.0 101.7 99.8 99.5 104.8 100.2 102.2 105.0 100.9 105.8
-5.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 0.1 2.7 1.4 -3.7 2.5 -3.5 -1.9 3.4
99.9 106.7 103.6 97.9 103.4 107.7 107.6 95.0 100.1 99.8 102.9 106.8
-9.4 0.3 -4.2 -0.2 1.7 4.8 -1.3 -8.5 5.5 -4.4 -0.2 9.2
103.4 92.3 102.8 103.3 98.2 96.1 103.7 102.4 103.0 107.3 100.0 105.4
-4.3 -0.6 1.5 3.3 -0.6 1.8 2.6 -1.7 1.3 -3.1 -2.7 1.2
109 108 108 108 104 107 105 106 107 105 103 101
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11p 12 p
104.8 94.5 106.0 105.5 98.8 98.8 103.2 102.1 108.1 110.8 106.8 111.1
2.3 -2.2 2.9 3.7 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 1.9 5.8 5.5 5.8 5.0
101.2 92.8 105.8 107.1 98.1 102.3 107.0 103.3 104.6 114.3 113.6 118.8
1.3 -13.0 2.1 9.4 -5.1 -5.0 -0.6 8.7 4.5 14.5 10.4 11.2
106.3 95.2 106.1 104.7 99.1 97.3 101.6 101.5 109.6 109.4 103.9 107.8
2.8 3.1 3.2 1.4 0.9 1.2 -2.0 -0.9 6.4 2.0 3.9 2.3
102 103 101 104 105 98 100 101 103 105 105 102
2016 1
-
-
-
-
-
100
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
Consumer sentiment index
Statistical Appendices
-
6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship & aircraft (billion won, constant value)
Total
Period
2012 2013 2014 2015p
Public
y-o-y change (%)
Private
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Facility investment index (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)
21,648 23,078 26,485 25,670
-13.9 6.6 14.8 -3.1
2,142 2,580 5,012 1,920
-11.0 20.5 94.2 -61.7
19,506 20,497 21,473 23,749
-14.2 5.1 4.8 10.6
100.6 99.8 105.0 111.5
-2.8 -0.8 5.2 6.2
2013Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,587 5,865 5,144 6,481
-11.5 8.8 2.1 32.0
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,158 5,311 4,622 5,406
-6.2 4.0 3.7 21.7
91.7 101.1 99.3 107.0
-12.7 -3.5 3.2 11.0
2014Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,624 6,099 7,687 6,075
18.5 4.0 49.4 -6.3
1,221 305 2,708 778
184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6
5,403 5,794 4,979 5,297
4.7 9.1 7.7 -2.0
98.6 107.9 100.8 112.8
7.5 6.7 1.5 5.4
2015Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp
6,453 7,054 5,643 6,520
-2.6 15.7 -26.6 7.3
405 493 399 623
-66.9 61.7 -85.3 -19.9
6,048 6,561 5,244 5,897
12.0 13.2 5.3 11.3
106.9 113.5 110.9 114.7
8.4 5.2 10.0 1.7
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,748 1,847 3,029 2,276 1,826 1,997 1,779 4,090 1,818 1,932 2,303 1,840
-5.2 10.9 45.8 23.3 -14.1 5.5 -8.0 152.2 14.5 -25.8 10.0 3.2
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5
1,660 1,727 2,016 2,179 1,709 1,906 1,690 1,549 1,739 1,722 1,874 1,701
-2.6 15.3 3.0 24.3 -8.9 13.4 7.3 1.3 14.7 -5.2 -2.9 2.5
90.3 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.3 104.9 111.4 90.7 100.2 99.8 112.5 126.0
0.2 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.1 2.3 2.8 -9.8 12.8 -8.9 10.4 15.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11p 12p
2,324 1,856 2,273 2,782 2,102 2,170 2,023 1,702 1,917 2,059 1,964 2,496
32.9 0.5 -24.9 22.2 15.1 8.6 13.7 -58.4 5.5 6.6 -14.7 35.6
116 141 148 127 197 169 133 160 106 98 227 298
32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7 50.2 -93.7 34.8 -53.6 -46.9 113.7
2,208 1,715 2,126 2,656 1,905 2,000 1,890 1,542 1,811 1,961 1,737 2,198
33.0 -0.7 5.5 21.9 11.4 5.0 11.8 -0.4 4.1 13.9 -7.3 29.2
102.7 98.6 119.5 113.5 109.1 117.8 119.4 105.8 107.5 112.3 107.0 124.7
13.7 3.1 8.8 2.6 0.7 12.3 7.2 16.6 7.3 12.5 -4.9 -1.0
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
February 2016
55
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received
(current value, billion won)
Period
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (%) (Total)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) (Total)
Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015p
88,713 98,089 98,465 99,749
-3.3 10.6 0.4 1.3
33,807 34,459 32,004 30,615
-3.7 1.9 -7.1 -4.3
50,622 59,714 62,403 65,001
-2.0 18.0 4.5 4.2
89,395 77,885 89,833 133,252
-6.2 -12.9 15.3 48.3
26,071 24,736 26,497 28,786
-8.9 -5.1 7.1 8.6
59,811 50,947 61,321 101,304
-3.3 -14.8 20.4 65.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,178 25,760 23,718 28,732
4.7 14.9 11.1 10.7
6,998 9,318 8,058 10,085
-6.0 4.8 6.0 2.1
12,415 15,455 14,739 17,106
14.0 24.2 16.3 17.1
13,826 18,694 16,833 28,532
-39.0 -27.4 -8.5 26.3
4,292 5,371 4,987 10,086
-24.1 -3.6 -7.7 6.8
9,180 12,636 11,442 17,688
-43.7 -33.8 -8.6 48.9
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,675 26,174 23,601 27,016
7.4 1.6 -0.5 -5.0
7,147 8,706 7,243 8,909
2.1 -6.6 -10.1 -11.7
13,676 16,512 15,360 16,855
10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.5
15,972 23,436 24,035 26,390
15.5 25.4 42.8 -7.5
5,898 6,577 5,190 8,833
37.4 22.5 4.1 -12.4
9,628 16,537 18,175 16,982
4.9 30.9 58.8 -4.0
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp
21,252 25,004 24,746 28,747
-2.0 -4.5 4.9 6.4
6,554 8,190 7,174 8,697
-8.3 -5.9 -1.0 -2.4
13,949 15,831 16,582 18,640
2.0 -4.1 8.0 10.6
24,821 35,163 36,274 36,994
55.4 50.0 50.9 40.2
4,566 9,186 4,900 10,134
-22.6 39.7 -5.6 14.7
19,980 25,459 30,647 25,218
107.5 54.0 68.6 48.5
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,057 6,665 7,953 8,476 8,191 9,506 7,914 7,721 7,966 8,239 8,339 10,438
12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.2 -2.5
2,314 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,382 2,429 2,324 2,491 2,532 2,673 3,704
11.7 -6.0 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.4 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.3 -7.8
4,452 4,237 4,987 5,458 5,316 5,737 5,149 5,112 5,099 5,369 5,293 6,194
12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -6.1 1.1
5,528 5,549 4,895 7,359 6,834 9,243 6,969 8,688 8,377 7,755 6,427 12,209
55.4 17.5 -11.7 42.9 9.9 26.2 20.7 85.2 31.6 0.0 -20.5 -3.9
2,034 2,241 1,623 1,894 2,000 2,682 1,533 1,628 2,029 1,416 1,895 5,522
56.4 75.0 -5.1 21.0 27.8 19.7 2.7 10.5 0.4 -6.7 -28.9 -6.5
3,305 3,158 3,165 5,454 4,767 6,316 5,298 6,849 6,029 6,157 4,415 6,410
56.7 -4.0 -16.3 72.6 5.1 27.8 27.7 115.9 46.3 0.2 -15.2 1.1
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11p 12p
6,774 6,681 7,796 7,708 7,764 9,531 7,883 7,909 8,954 8,499 8,695 11,552
-4.0 0.2 -2.0 -9.1 -5.2 0.3 -0.4 2.4 12.4 3.2 4.3 10.7
1,997 2,089 2,468 2,467 2,325 3,399 2,284 2,207 2,684 2,269 2,443 3,984
-13.7 -5.3 -6.0 -10.0 -10.0 0.5 -6.0 -5.0 7.7 -10.4 -8.6 7.6
4,561 4,374 5,014 4,937 5,127 5,767 5,338 5,406 5,838 5,860 5,861 6,919
2.4 3.2 0.5 -9.6 -3.6 0.5 3.7 5.7 14.5 9.1 10.7 11.7
7,216 5,367 12,238 9,048 12,556 13,559 8,680 8,496 19,097 10,377 13,216 13,401
30.5 -3.3 150.0 22.9 83.7 46.7 24.6 -2.2 128.0 33.8 105.6 9.8
1,297 1,133 2,136 2,586 2,458 4,142 1,791 1,921 1,188 1,802 3,296 5,035
-36.2 -49.4 31.6 36.5 22.9 54.4 16.9 18.0 -41.5 27.3 74.0 -8.8
5,882 4,115 9,982 6,406 9,995 9,059 6,812 6,270 17,565 8,574 9,247 7,397
78.0 30.3 215.4 17.4 109.7 43.4 28.6 -8.5 191.4 39.2 109.5 15.4
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
Type of order Public Private
Statistical Appendices
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period
Leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2012 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.3 108.4 108.1 108.5 109.3 110.1
99.3 98.9 98.2 98.1 98.4 98.7
110.5 110.4 110.8 110.9 111.5 112.1
100.9 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.2 100.3
82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.7 113.8 114.5 115.1 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.1
98.5 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.3
112.4 112.9 113.0 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.1 116.8 117.2 117.8
100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 100.3
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
118.7 118.9 119.0 119.4 119.8 120.5 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.4 124.9 125.9
100.4 100.2 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.4 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.5
118.5 118.9 119.4 119.6 119.8 120.2 120.8 121.5 121.8 121.9 122.2 123.1
100.5 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.2 99.9 99.8 100.1
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
127.8 129.0 130.5 131.1 132.1 132.3 133.0 133.9 135.3 136.3 136.9 137.0
102.5 103.1 103.8 103.7 104.0 103.6 103.5 103.6 104.2 104.4 104.3 103.8
123.6 124.5 124.7 125.1 125.0 125.2 125.9 126.8 128.2 129.1 129.5 129.8
100.1 100.5 100.3 100.3 99.8 99.5 99.7 100.1 100.8 101.1 101.0 100.9
94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 86.6 96.1 97.2 95.5 95.5
90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6 95.1 101.2 95.9 97.5
2016 1 2
-
-
-
-
92.1 -
93.2 86.3
Sources: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea, The Federation of Korean Industries
February 2016
57
9. Balance of payments ( I) Period
Current account
Goods
2012 2013 2014r 2015p
50,835.0 81,148.2 84,373.0 105,955.1
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
554,103.2 535,375.9 524,135.2 428,559.2
-5,213.6 -6,499.2 -3,678.5 -15,707.9
12,116.7 9,055.7 4,150.8 5,901.8
-5,474.1 -4,189.3 -4,984.7 -4,612.9
147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9
133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9
-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7
1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2
-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4
17,595.3 25,175.7 20,977.4 25,137.0
151,471.8 158,004.3 150,820.7 152,723.8
133,876.5 132,828.6 129,843.3 127,586.8
-2,889.0 50.8 -459.6 -380.7
-736.9 556.0 1,398.7 2,933.0
-820.0 -1,674.6 -1,251.6 -1,238.5
22,439.2 27,917.6 29,108.1 26,490.2
24,216.7 33,679.8 30,637.7 31,839.9
134,439.1 142,258.7 135,363.0 136,872.5
110,222.4 108,578.9 104,725.3 105,032.6
-4,387.1 -3,092.6 -3,561.5 -4,666.7
3,830.8 -1,556.9 2,727.7 900.2
-1,221.2 -1,112.7 -695.8 -1,583.2
2014r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,870.1 4,965.6 6,313.7 7,030.6 9,187.0 7,890.3 6,096.7 6,966.9 7,601.3 8,741.5 10,755.2 6,954.1
3,487.8 6,103.7 7,643.8 10,068.2 8,786.8 6,320.7 5,677.3 7,041.2 8,258.9 7,983.9 9,593.0 7,560.1
50,116.2 47,605.8 53,749.8 56,091.9 51,957.8 49,954.6 52,416.1 48,151.0 50,253.6 51,029.1 49,241.6 52,453.1
46,268.4 41,502.1 46,106.0 46,023.7 43,171.0 43,633.9 46,738.8 41,109.8 41,994.7 43,045.2 39,648.6 44,893.0
-1,727.0 -529.9 -632.1 -226.5 159.6 117.7 343.2 -391.6 -411.2 163.7 94.0 -638.4
84.9 -444.1 -377.7 -1,912.8 629.4 1,839.4 466.0 835.6 97.1 856.3 1,183.5 893.2
-335.6 -164.1 -320.3 -898.3 -388.8 -387.5 -389.8 -518.3 -343.5 -262.4 -115.3 -860.8
2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,257.1 6,081.1 10,101.1 7,729.8 8,315.5 11,872.3 9,714.8 8,546.9 10,846.4 9,120.4 9,910.3 7,459.5
6,310.3 7,020.8 10,885.6 12,090.2 8,792.6 12,797.0 9,924.9 8,805.4 11,907.4 10,605.2 10,466.1 10,768.6
45,022.1 40,294.9 49,122.1 49,908.3 43,471.9 48,878.5 47,259.6 42,991.3 45,112.1 47,298.7 43,360.4 46,213.4
38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,081.5 37,334.7 34,185.9 33,204.7 36,693.5 32,894.3 35,444.8
-1,991.3 -1,758.8 -637.0 -804.0 -83.8 -2,204.8 -1,254.3 -1,013.0 -1,294.2 -1,701.7 -1,263.9 -1,701.1
2,558.1 1,037.8 234.9 -3,096.6 40.8 1,498.9 1,139.5 850.9 737.3 594.4 893.6 -587.8
-620.0 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8 -95.3 -96.4 -504.1 -377.5 -185.5 -1,020.2
Exports
Imports
49,406.0 82,781.0 88,885.4 120,374.1
603,509.2 618,156.9 613,020.6 548,933.3
12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1
14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0
2014 r Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
13,149.4 24,107.9 20,664.9 26,450.8
2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
p: Preliminary r : Revised Source: Bank of Korea
58
(US $ million)
Statistical Appendices
10. Balance of payments ( II)
(US $ million)
Period
Financial account*
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Reserve assets
Capital account
2012 2013 2014 2015p
51,582.4 80,104.6 89,334.0 109,626.8
21,136.2 15,593.2 18,765.6 22,597.8
-6,747.8 9,344.5 30,608.9 49,613.0
-2,627.8 -4,410.3 -3,826.9 2,532.5
26,637.3 43,281.1 25,900.6 22,830.9
13,184.5 16,296.1 17,885.8 12,052.6
-41.7 -27.0 -8.9 -64.7
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
11,448.7 19,645.6 22,675.5 26,334.8
3,878.4 3,397.8 3,426.8 4,890.2
7,285.9 9,776.5 -9,375.4 1,657.5
-1,395.8 513.6 -1,656.3 -1,871.8
-2,880.2 10,063.8 23,611.4 12,486.1
4,560.4 -4,106.1 6,669.0 9,172.8
-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
15,120.7 24,650.2 21,230.4 28,332.7
2,367.1 7,990.4 2,952.8 5,455.3
12,614.4 4,291.2 4,292.1 9,411.2
-1,004.6 -1,983.9 -1,649.7 811.3
-5,879.9 3,182.9 9,803.2 18,794.4
7,023.7 11,169.6 5,832.0 -6,139.5
-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.1
2015 p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
23,800.1 28,671.4 29,615.2 27,540.1
4,386.2 7,467.6 4,920.9 5,823.1
7,838.4 6,994.1 15,096.2 19,684.3
-41.0 -461.4 4,040.7 -1,005.8
4,506.4 7,369.2 9,844.1 1,111.2
7,110.1 7,301.9 -4,286.7 1,927.3
-23.1 -25.5 -27.9 11.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,459.5 6,830.1 4,831.1 6,109.1 8,223.5 10,317.6 4,787.1 7,866.8 8,576.5 7,243.3 10,457.9 10,631.5
-1,420.3 1,601.5 2,185.9 2,369.9 3,512.1 2,108.4 492.8 524.3 1,935.7 2,769.7 1,998.3 687.3
4,393.6 6,429.0 1,791.8 -1,793.6 2,027.7 4,057.1 1,696.5 -705.2 3,300.8 339.4 2,686.3 6,385.5
-177.3 -264.6 -562.7 -890.2 -546.6 -547.1 -597.0 -621.0 -431.7 426.1 91.7 293.5
-2,243.2 -3,260.8 -375.9 5,757.2 -2,737.4 163.1 -132.9 7,841.8 2,094.3 3,955.6 8,579.1 6,259.7
2,906.7 2,325.0 1,792.0 665.8 5,967.7 4,536.1 3,327.7 826.9 1,677.4 -245.7 -2,897.5 -2,994.5
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -4.2
2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,898.1 5,175.2 10,726.8 9,802.8 8,558.1 10,310.5 10,018.0 9,052.5 10,544.7 11,086.1 8,697.0 7,757.0
659.2 1,631.0 2,096.0 1,712.2 949.9 4,805.5 -15.1 328.1 4,607.9 3,501.4 903.0 1,418.7
3,623.7 3,001.5 1,213.2 138.0 358.3 6,497.8 8,277.2 2,537.4 4,281.6 7,098.9 5,128.8 7,456.6
76.2 -27.5 -89.7 -301.9 -403.7 244.2 936.4 1,618.6 1,485.7 -812.0 -609.9 416.1
-489.1 371.2 4,624.3 4,851.0 4,755.5 -2,237.3 1,792.3 8,450.1 -398.3 -931.9 1,662.4 380.7
4,028.1 199.0 2,883.0 3,403.5 2,898.1 1,000.3 -972.8 -3,881.7 567.8 2,229.7 1,612.7 -1,915.1
-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5 -29.9 1.1 0.9 -5.4 17.0 0.2
* Positive figures represent increases in assets/liabilities, and negative figures represent decreases. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
February 2016
59
11. Prices Period
(2010=100)
All Items y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices All Items Commodities
Core
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015
106.3 107.7 109.0 109.8
2.2 1.3 1.3 0.7
108.9 110.1 111.1 110.3
3.1 1.0 0.9 -0.7
104.2 105.8 107.4 109.4
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8
104.9 106.6 108.8 111.1
1.6 1.6 2.0 2.2
107.5 105.7 105.2 101.0
0.7 -1.6 -0.5 -4.0
108.9 106.2 104.8 98.0
0.2 -2.5 -1.4 -6.4
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.3 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.7
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.0 110.1 109.9 110.2
0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3
110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.3 110.5 110.2 109.9 109.7 110.1
-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.0
108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.8 110.0 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.3
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.4 111.6 111.7 111.9
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.7 99.3 99.0
-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0
99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.0 95.3 95.0
-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.4 -7.6 -6.6
2016 1
110.3
0.8
109.7
-1.1
110.8
2.4
112.6
1.7
98.5
-3.3
94.1
-5.6
Source: Bank of Korea
60
Consumer prices Commodities Services
Statistical Appendices
12. Employment Period
Economically active persons (thousands)
y-o-y change (%)
Employed persons (thousands) All industry Manufacturing y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)
Unemployment SOC & services rate (%) y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015
25,501 25,873 26,536 26,913
1.6 1.5 2.6 1.4
24,681 25,066 25,599 25,936
1.8 1.6 2.1 1.3
4,105 4,184 4,330 4,486
0.3 1.9 3.5 3.6
19,033 19,347 19,805 20,029
2.4 1.6 2.4 1.5
3.2 3.1 3.5 3.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303 27,064 27,129 27,137 27,082 26,747
1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.8
25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305 26,141 26,264 26,298 26,253 25,879
1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.0
4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528 4,491 4,512 4,552 4,545 4,552
3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.3
19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250 20,153 20,249 20,248 20,353 20,266
1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9
3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2
2016 1
26,433
1.3
25,445
1.4
4,566
3.3
19,955
1.3
3.7
Source: Statistics Korea
February 2016
61
13. Financial indicators Call rate (1 day)
CDs (91 days)
2012 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9
1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81 2,029.47 1,991.97 1,961.31
2016 1
1.5
1.7
2.1
1.6
1.8
1,912.06
Period
Source: Bank of Korea
62
(period average)
Yields (%) Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Statistical Appendices
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Stock KOSPI (endperiod)
14. Monetary indicators Reserve money
Period
(period average, billion won)
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2
y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012
82,131.1
9.2
441,963.6
3.8
1,798,625.7
5.2
2,379,518.7
7.8
2013
91,379.4
11.3
484,062.9
9.5
1,885,781.3
4.8
2,543,232.5
6.9
2014
103,331.5
13.1
536,733.4
10.9
2,009,576.3
6.6
2,721,502.2
7.0
2015
120,691.4
16.8
636,639.0
18.6
2,182,911.9
8.6
2,986,698.6
9.7
2013 1
85,839.3
5.1
464,914.5
5.8
1,841,128.1
4.8
2,469,789.3
7.7
2
88,855.7
8.8
472,239.6
8.0
1,857,135.0
5.3
2,488,539.0
8.1
3
89,523.5
13.2
472,430.1
7.4
1,862,405.5
5.0
2,499,718.1
6.8
4
87,729.0
8.8
475,330.0
8.7
1,867,726.3
5.1
2,512,459.7
6.9
5
89,654.8
11.3
475,526.7
8.4
1,870,289.7
4.8
2,518,239.1
6.8
6
91,207.6
11.5
486,587.5
10.2
1,884,193.2
4.9
2,533,750.8
6.6
7
90,643.7
11.1
488,982.7
10.7
1,890,728.6
4.6
2,549,443.5
6.5
8
93,729.6
13.8
481,416.9
9.5
1,888,658.4
3.9
2,557,336.3
6.3
9
95,130.6
14.7
490,518.7
11.5
1,903,187.1
4.6
2,577,546.7
6.7
10
93,640.4
10.1
491,947.9
10.7
1,908,557.6
4.7
2,587,071.4
6.7
11
93,609.9
12.8
499,242.7
12.1
1,923,339.2
5.1
2,605,866.7
6.8
12
96,988.5
13.7
509,617.9
11.3
1,932,026.4
5.3
2,619,029.5
6.6
2014 1
98,541.6
14.8
515,742.5
10.9
1,937,045.6
5.2
2,635,100.1
6.7
2
100,547.9
13.2
518,475.5
9.8
1,954,340.7
5.2
2,647,674.0
6.4
3
100,624.0
12.4
520,299.0
10.1
1,964,954.0
5.5
2,659,443.2
6.4
4
98,898.5
12.7
518,809.3
9.1
1,970,361.6
5.5
2,669,341.4
6.2
5
101,791.4
13.5
523,069.9
10.0
1,982,390.9
6.0
2,684,643.9
6.6
6
101,412.3
11.2
532,041.2
9.3
1,999,376.3
6.1
2,703,088.1
6.7
7
101,164.2
11.6
534,028.8
9.2
2,013,935.1
6.5
2,725,737.6
6.9
8
107,682.4
14.9
538,640.3
11.9
2,031,777.2
7.6
2,743,972.5
7.3
9
105,354.1
10.7
548,550.8
11.8
2,037,600.8
7.1
2,759,390.8
7.1
10
107,117.5
14.4
551,416.0
12.1
2,051,149.8
7.5
2,776,968.0
7.3
11
106,667.9
13.9
562,006.2
12.6
2,083,253.5
8.3
2,817,698.0
8.1
12
110,175.6
13.6
577,721.1
13.4
2,088,729.8
8.1
2,834,968.4
8.2
2015 1
113,304.2
15.0
579,964.2
12.5
2,092,223.5
8.0
2,857,610.1
8.4
2
116,502.4
15.9
592,737.4
14.3
2,109,892.3
8.0
2,876,467.8
8.6
3
115,974.9
15.3
600,719.9
15.5
2,127,887.8
8.3
2,907,976.4
9.3
4
115,132.7
16.4
610,803.3
17.7
2,148,114.7
9.0
2,936,746.7
10.0
5
117,726.3
15.7
621,985.5
18.9
2,166,741.1
9.3
2,960,998.1
10.3
6
118,688.2
17.0
630,546.3
18.5
2,179,561.1
9.0
2,986,316.5
10.5
7
122,041.0
20.6
645,975.4
21.0
2,200,510.9
9.3
3,013,503.9
10.6
8
121,854.4
13.2
653,105.9
21.3
2,218,660.3
9.2
3,028,981.1
10.4
9
126,572.2
20.1
665,691.1
21.4
2,230,000.7
9.4
3,049,823.2
10.5
10
125,616.2
17.3
669,737.7
21.5
2,232,432.0
8.8
3,059,051.9
10.2
11
126,767.1
18.8
677,629.2
20.6
2,242,848.2
7.7
3,076,029.2
9.2
12
128,117.5
16.3
690,772.4
19.6
2,246,070.1
7.5
3,086,877.8
8.9
Source: Bank of Korea
February 2016
63
15. Exchange rates Period
Euro/ \
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015
1,071.1 1,055.3 1,099.2 1,172.0
-7.1 -1.5 4.2 6.6
1,247.5 1,004.7 920.1 972.0
-16.0 -19.5 -8.4 5.6
1,416.3 1,456.3 1,336.5 1,280.5
-5.2 2.8 -8.2 -4.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0
1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6
921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 944.1 936.7 972.0
-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6
1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5
-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2
2016 1
1,208.4
10.8
1,017.1
10.4
1,322.2
7.0
Source: Bank of Korea
64
(end-period)
100/ \
US $/ \
Statistical Appendices
Geomungo The geomungo is a traditional Korean string instument that originated in the ancient kingdom of Goguryeo around the fourth century. Due to its deep and grand tones, the geomungo is considered a 'masculine' instrument, in contrast to the gayageum, which is also a traditional string instrument but has soft and delicate tones.
Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance_http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy_http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission_http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service_http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission_http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor_http://www.moel.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea_http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea_http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
eb.kdi.re.kr
Vol.38 No.2 february 2016
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.38 No.2 february 2016
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Government Unveils New Round of Investment Boosting Measures
Economic News Briefing Korea to Increase Spending in Q1 Fitch Affirms Korea’s Sovereign credit Rating at AA‘Omnibus Account’ for Foreign Investors to be Introduced Korea Grows 0.6% in Q4
Statistical Appendices
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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