ISSN 2287-7266
Republic of Korea
eb.kdi.re.kr
Vol.38 No.6 June 2016
CONOMIC U L L E T I N
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Government Launches a Ministerial Meeting to Facilitate Industrial Restructuring Government Unveils its Plan to Reform Public Institutions in Energy, Environment and Education Sectors Revisions to FX Regulations Focus on Flexibility
Economic News Briefing BOK Cuts Key Rate to 1.25% Government Revises Regulations to Allow Won-Yuan Direct Trading in China ODA Budget for 2017 to be 2.7 tn Won Korea Grows 0.5% in Q1
Statistical Appendices
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
01. External economic situation
04
02. Private consumption
08
03. Facility investment
11
04. Construction investment
13
05. Exports and imports
15
06. Mining and manufacturing production
18
07. Service sector activity
20
08. Employment
22
09. Financial markets
26
9.1 Stock market
26
9.2 Exchange rate
27
9.3 Bond market
27
9.4 Money supply and money market
28
10. Balance of payments
30
11. Prices
32
11.1 Consumer prices
32
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
34
12. Real estate market
36
12.1 Housing market
36
12.2 Land market
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
41
contents
43 Policy Issue Government launches a ministerial meeting to facilitate industrial restructuring Government unveils its plan to reform public institutions in energy, environment and education sectors Revisions to FX regulations focus on flexibility
50 Economic News Briefing BOK cuts key rate to 1.25% Government revises regulations to allow won-yuan direct trading in China ODA budget for 2017 to be 2.7 tn won Korea and China discuss joint project development Korea grows 0.5% in Q1 (preliminary)
53 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) Jung Moo-Kyung (MOSF) Editorial Board Jung Yeu-Jin (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF) Kang Ji-Eun (KDI)
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
01. External economic situation
02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators 02
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Overview
Production and exports continued to struggle due to weak global recovery while domestic demand stayed positive backed by the strong service sector. The economy added fewer jobs in April than the previous month (300,000 → 252,000, y-o-y) as the number of daily jobs decreased due to the election day, a national holiday. Consumer price inflation slowed in May to 0.8 percent compared with 1.0 percent in the previous month, due to stable agricultural product prices and a cut in natural gas rates. Mining and manufacturing production fell 1.3 percent month-on-month in April as automobiles and other transportation equipment declined due to weak exports. Service output grew for the third consecutive month in April, up 0.5 percent month-on-month, while retail sales, which grew 4.3 percent in the previous month, inched down 0.5 percent due to a high base effect. Facility investment rose 3.4 percent month-on-month in April, rising for the second month in a row, backed by strong machinery and transportation equipment. Construction completed fell for the first time in five months, down 6.7 percent, due to a high base effect from the previous month (up 7.0%). In April, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index stayed unchanged, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 points. Exports continued to fall in May, but at a slower rate compared with the previous month (down 11.2% → down 6.0%, y-o-y) partly due to more days worked. In May, stock prices slightly declined, and market interest rates fell in line with the expectations of the Bank of Korea’s key interest rate cut. The Korean won weakened against both the US dollar and the Japanese yen amid the strong dollar. Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices stayed stable month-on-month in May (up 0.02% → up 0.03% and up 0.13% → up 0.11%, respectively). Domestic demand has been recovering backed by improving consumption. However, business confidence as well as household confidence has yet to pick up, and uncertainties over the timing of the Fed’s rate hike and Brexit are posing risks. The government will closely monitor internal and external economic developments as well as examine uncertainties and their possible impact on domestic financial markets, and will be prepared to make appropriate responses if necessary. To help the economy build up recovery momentum, the government will draw up the economic policies for the second half of 2016, focusing on stimulating the private sector to boost exports and investment.
June 2016
03
1. External economic situation
The global economic recovery remains weak, as the US and other major economies have yet to build up momentum and emerging economies including China continue to struggle, while possibilities of the Fed’s rate hike and Brexit are posing risks.
US
The US economy grew 0.8 percent (preliminary, annualized q-o-q) in the first quarter of 2016. Major indicators were mixed as production and retail sales improved while employment slowed. Industrial production rose 0.7 percent month-on-month in April backed by strong utilities production (up 5.8%), and the ISM Manufacturing Index for May rose to 51.3. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 49.4 (Oct 2015) → 48.4 (Nov) → 48.0 (Dec) → 48.2 (Jan 2016) → 49.5 (Feb) → 51.8 (Mar) → 50.8 (Apr) → 51.3 (May)
Retail sales increased 1.3 percent month-on-month in April due to strong automobiles and automobile parts (up 3.2%). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased in May. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 91.3 (Nov 2015) → 92.6 (Dec) → 92.0 (Jan 2016) → 91.7 (Feb) → 91.0 (Mar) → 89.0 (Apr) → 94.7 (May) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 92.6 (Nov 2015) → 96.3 (Dec) → 97.8 (Jan 2016) → 94.0 (Feb) → 96.1 (Mar) → 94.2 (Apr) → 92.6 (May)
New home sales soared 16.1 percent from the previous month in April, rebounding from a decline in the previous month, while existing home sales continued to improve (up 1.7%). Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 5.2 (Sep 2015) → 5.4 (Oct) → 5.7 (Nov) → 5.6 (Dec) → 5.7 (Jan 2016) → 5.4 (Feb) → 5.4 (Mar) New home sales (m-o-m, %) 1.4 (Aug 2015) → -9.5 (Sep) → 4.6 (Oct) → 6.3 (Nov) → 5.9 (Dec) → -2.2 (Jan 2016) → 2.3 (Feb) → -1.3 (Mar) → 16.6 (Apr)
The unemployment rate was 4.7 percent, falling from the previous month, while nonfarm payrolls grew at a slower pace, adding 38,000 jobs, due to a slow growth in the service sector (144,000 → 61,000). Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 280 (Nov 2015) → 271 (Dec) → 168 (Jan 2016) → 233 (Feb) → 186 (Mar) → 123 (Apr) → 38 (May)
04
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014
2015 Q2 3.9
Q3 2.0
Q4 1.4
Q1 0.8
2016 Feb Mar -
2.4
1.9
-
-
-
Real GDP
1.5
2.4
Q4 2.1
2.4
Q1 0.6
- Personal consumption expenditure
1.7
2.7
4.3
3.1
1.8
3.6
3.0
- Nonresidential fixed investment
3.0
6.2
0.7
2.9
1.6
4.1
2.6
-2.1
-6.2
-
-
-
- Residential fixed investment
9.5
1.8
10.0
5.8
10.1
9.3
8.2
10.1
17.1
-
-
-
Industrial production
1.9
2.9
0.9
0.3
-0.5
-0.7
0.4
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
0.7
Retail sales
3.8
4.1
0.6
2.3
-0.7
1.5
0.9
0.3
-0.1
0.3
-0.3
1.3
Existing home sales
9.1
-3.1
1.8
6.3
-0.7
4.6
2.3
-3.8
1.9
-7.3
5.7
1.7
Unemployment rate²
7.4
6.2
5.7
5.3
5.5
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
5.0
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.5
1.6
1.2
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.4
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.1
Annual Annual 1
Annual
Apr -
1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted (%) Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
US GDP growth and industrial production 10 8
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
(%)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
(thousands)
(%)
12
600 10 400 200
8
0 6
-200 -400
4
-600 2
-800 -1,000
0
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Unemployment rate (right)
June 2016
05
China
China’s economy grew 6.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016, meeting market expectations, but major indicators slipped in April. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.0 (Jul 2015) → 49.7 (Aug) → 49.8 (Sep) → 49.8 (Oct) → 49.6 (Nov) → 49.7 (Dec) → 49.4 (Jan 2016) → 49.0 (Feb) → 50.2 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr) → 50.1 (May)
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 18
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
(%)
70
(%)
16
60
14 50 12 40
10 8
30
6 20 4 10
2
0
0 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013
2014
Real GDP
7.7
7.3
Q4 7.3
Industrial production
Annual Annual
Annual
6.9
Q1 7.0
2015 Q2 7.0
Q3 6.9
Q4 6.8
Q1 6.7
Feb -
2016 Mar -
Apr -
9.7
8.3
7.6
6.1
6.4
6.3
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.4
6.8
6.0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, nominal)
19.6
15.7
15.7
10.7
13.5
11.4
10.3
10.0
10.7
10.2
10.7
10.5
Retail sales (nominal)
13.1
12.0
11.7
10.0
10.6
10.2
10.7
11.1
10.3
10.2
10.5
10.1
8.6
5.5
8.6
-2.5
4.7
-2.1
-5.9
-5.0
-9.6
-25.4
11.5
-1.8
Exports Consumer prices
2.6
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.5
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.3
Producer prices1
-1.9
-1.9
-2.7
-5.2
-4.6
-4.8
-5.7
-5.9
-4.8
-4.9
-4.3
-3.4
1
1. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
06
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Japan
The Japanese economy grew 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2016. Industrial production picked up in April despite the Kumamoto earthquakes, while consumption and exports slowed down. On June 1, the Japanese government pushed back the second stage of the consumption tax hike (8% → 10%) from April 2017 to October 2019. Consumer prices fell 0.3 percent year-on-year in April.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
Q1 1.3
2015 Q2 -0.4
Q3 0.4
2014
Q4 -0.4
Q1 0.4
Feb -
2016 Mar -
Apr -
Real GDP
1.4
0.0
Q4 0.5
Industrial production
-0.6
2.1
0.8
-1.2
1.1
-1.3
-1.0
0.0
-1.1
-5.2
3.8
0.3
Retail sales
1.2
1.7
1.0
-0.4
-1.7
0.2
1.0
-0.2
-2.3
-2.3
1.5
0.0
Exports (y-o-y)
9.5
4.8
9.1
3.5
9.0
6.7
3.7
-4.6
-7.9
-4.0
-6.8
-10.1
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
0.4
2.7
2.6
0.8
2.3
0.5
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
-0.1
-0.3
Annual Annual
Annual
0.6
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0 -5
-2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6
-25
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
Eurozone
The eurozone economy grew 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2016 backed by low oil prices and the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program. However, deflationary pressures have continued, and a potential Brexit is posing risks.
June 2016
07
Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 52.3 (Oct 2015) → 52.8 (Nov) → 53.2 (Dec) → 52.3 (Jan 2016) → 51.2 (Feb) → 51.6 (Mar) → 51.7 (Apr) → 51.5 (May)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014 1.6
Q1 0.6
Q3 0.3
Q4 0.3
Q1 0.5
Feb -
2016 Mar -
Real GDP
-0.3
0.9
Q4 0.4
Industrial production
-0.6
0.9
0.6
1.5
0.9
0.1
0.2
-0.4
0.9
-1.2
-0.8
-
Retail sales
-0.6
1.4
1.0
2.8
1.1
0.6
0.7
0.2
0.8
0.4
-0.6
0.0
Exports (y-o-y)
1.0
2.2
4.4
5.4
5.6
8.2
4.5
3.4
-1.3
1.1
-2.7
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.0
-0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
Annual Annual
Annual
2015 Q2 0.4
Apr -
Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3
Source: Eurostat
(%)
(%)
10 8
2 6 4
1
2 0
0 -2
-1
-4 -6
-2 -8 -3
-10
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2. Private consumption
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
Private consumption in the first quarter of 2016 (preliminary GDP) fell 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and rose 2.2 percent compared to a year ago.
08
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Private consumption 12
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013
2014
Annual Annual
Private consumption² (y-o-y)
1.9
1.7
Q1 0.4
-
-
2.8
2015
-0.3
Q3 0.7
Q4 0.3
Annual¹ 2.2
Q1¹ 0.8
1.7
1.4
1.1
-
1.5
Q2
-0.1
Q3¹ 1.1
Q4¹ 1.4
2016 Q1¹ -0.2
1.7
2.2
3.3
2.2
Q2¹
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
Retail sales in April declined 0.5 percent month-on-month, despite increasing sales of nondurable goods (up 0.4%), such as food, as sales of durable goods (down 2.0%), such as automobiles, and semi-durable goods (down 0.2%), such as clothing, decreased. Year-on-year, the index rose 4.2 percent.
Retail sales 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2006.1
2007.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
June 2016
09
(Percentage change from previous period)
2014 Annual Annual Q3 1.4 2013
Retail sales (y-o-y)
0.7
Q4 0.3
Annual
-
Q1 1.0
2015 Q2 0.7
Q3 1.3
Q4 3.1
Q1¹ -1.1
2016 Mar¹ 4.3
Apr¹ -0.5
6.1
4.5
5.7
4.2
2.0
2.0
2.4
3.9
2.2
3.4
3.6
- Durable goods
0.3
5.1
3.2
0.4
10.2
4.3
0.8
2.0
8.2
-6.3
10.1
-2.0
· Automobiles
2.1
16.4
5.1
0.3
21.3
7.0
5.4
3.5
11.2
-11.8
18.2
-6.4
- Semi-durable goods
2.1
-0.8
3.9
-2.3
-1.2
-2.0
-1.0
1.8
2.8
-2.1
3.9
-0.2
- Nondurable goods4
0.4
1.6
-0.8
1.3
2.5
0.6
1.2
0.7
0.3
2.6
1.1
0.4
2
3
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Retail sales by type 50
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Durable goods
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
Retail sales in May are expected to increase backed by strong domestic sales of cars, department store sales and domestic sales of gasoline.
(Percentage change from same preriod in previous year)
Oct
2015 Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2016 Mar
Apr
May
Credit card use
13.1
Department store sales
17.4
9.8
8.5
15.8
14.2
13.9
7.2
22.7
4.1
-3.8
9.6
-0.1
4.8
8.0
1.5
Large discount store sales
1.6
-0.6
-2.1
13.4
-5.4
-1.4
0.2
-5.5
Domestic sales of gasoline
10.0
4.8
Domestic sales of cars
22.7
16.3
4.3
8.5
-1.1
-0.7
1.6
7.2
17.7
-4.5
9.0
18.9
5.8
20.8
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries
10
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) fell 7.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual¹
Q1¹
2015 Q2¹
Q3¹
Q4¹
2016 Q1¹
-0.8
6.0
-1.1
1.3
0.3
3.5
5.3
0.5
0.8
1.8
0.5
-7.4
-
-
7.4
7.9
4.4
4.4
-
5.8
5.1
6.7
3.9
-4.5
- Machinery
-2.3
5.0
-2.9
0.9
0.9
5.2
2.1
0.1
-2.9
0.8
-3.0
-6.4
- Transportation equipment
3.1
8.3
3.5
2.2
-1.0
-0.4
12.5
1.5
9.3
3.7
7.4
-9.4
Annual Annual
Facility investment² (y-o-y)
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
Facility investment 40
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2015
2014 Annual Annual
Facility investment index (y-o-y)
5.2
6.3
Q1 -0.2
-2.2
Q3 5.2
Q2
Q4 -1.2
Q11 -8.8
Jan -6.5
2016 Feb -7.1
Mar1 5.8
Apr1 3.4
-
-
9.2
4.5
10.2
1.6
-7.1
-6.0
-7.9
-7.4
-2.7
- Machinery
3.9
2.9
-0.1
-6.0
0.7
-2.6
-5.6
-2.7
-3.5
3.3
0.9
- Transportation equipment
8.8
14.9
-1.0
8.8
16.5
1.0
-14.4
-12.1
-15.5
10.7
9.3
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
June 2016
11
The facility investment index in April rose 3.4 percent month-on-month as both machinery and transportation equipment investment increased. The index fell 2.7 percent year-on-year.
Facility investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 -30 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Transportation equipment
2016.Q1
Machinery
Facility investment outlooks are mixed as the average manufacturing operation ratio and facility investment adjustment pressure remain low, whereas machinery imports are decreasing at a slower pace.
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
(trillion won)
(y-o-y, %)
60
9 40 8
7
20
6 0
5
4 -20 3 2
-40
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
12
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015
2014 Annual Annual
Domestic machinery orders
14.8
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-3.6
Q1 -3.0
14.9
Q3 -27.1
Q2
Q4 6.9
Q1¹ 0.9
Jan -24.0
2016 Feb 22.7
Mar¹ Apr1 8.5 -28.2
-
-
-0.1
8.6
-10.0
9.2
-6.9
-30.2
36.4
-7.8
-10.3
- Public
94.2
-61.7
-66.9
61.7
-85.3
-19.8
56.9
-40.7
80.7 110.8
49.3
- Private
4.8
10.0
11.4
12.5
4.7
10.8
-2.8
-23.1
18.0
1.4
-31.9
Machinery imports
5.8
0.3
8.5
-1.1
2.3
-6.4
-13.0
-3.5
-17.2
-17.4
-5.5
Average manufacturing operation ratio
76.1
74.3
74.3
74.3
74.9
73.6
73.2
72.3
73.5
73.7
71.0
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-1.4
-1.8
-2.8
-2.8
-1.2
-0.6
-1.2
-2.6
1.5
-1.7
-3.3
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
4. Construction investment
Construction investment in the first quarter of 2016 (preliminary GDP) rose 6.8 percent quarter-onquarter and 9.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2013 5.5
1.1
Q1 3.3
-
-
4.1
Annual Annual
Construction investment² (y-o-y)
2014 Q2 1.0
Q3 -0.3
Q4 1.4
Annual¹
3.9
Q1¹ 5.5
2015 Q2¹ 1.8
Q3¹ 3.3
Q4¹ -2.4
2016 Q1¹ 6.8
0.2
2.3
-1.5
-
0.9
1.0
5.6
7.5
9.6
- Building construction
11.2
6.3
2.7
3.6
2.2
-4.9
6.3
2.5
4.9
5.6
0.3
3.6
- Civil engineering works
-2.5
-7.3
4.5
-3.0
-6.1
-4.7
-7.3
11.4
-3.8
-1.4
-8.0
14.0
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
Construction investment 20
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
June 2016
13
The value of construction completed (constant) in April fell 6.7 percent month-on-month as both civil engineering works and building construction decreased. The index rose 16.1 percent year-on-year.
Construction investment by type Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2015.Q1
Civil engineering works
(Percentage change from previous period)
2015
2014 Annual Annual
Construction completed (constant) -0.7 (y-o-y) - Building construction 7.8 - Civil engineering works -12.3
2.3 6.0 -3.8
Q1 4.1 -2.0 4.4 3.7
Q2
-2.1 -3.9 -0.7 -4.4
Q3 6.4 5.9 9.5 0.9
Q4 0.0 8.0 2.6 -5.0
Q11 9.3 14.6 8.9 10.1
Jan 0.6 9.4 4.4 -6.5
2016 Feb 2.0 10.1 2.4 0.7
Mar1 7.0 23.1 2.0 18.7
Apr1 -6.7 16.1 -4.9 -10.1
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Apartment presales and shipments of intermediate building materials are increasing, but leading indicators are mixed as building permits fell and construction orders increased. Apartment presales (thousands, Real Estate 114) 64 (Oct 2015) → 76 (Nov) → 58 (Dec) → 8 (Jan 2016) → 9 (Feb) → 39 (Mar) → 34 (Apr) → 53 (May) Domestic shipments of cement (million tons) 4.38 (Oct 2015) → 4.18 (Nov) → 4.61 (Dec) → 3.01 (Jan 2016) → 2.89 (Feb) → 5.50 (Mar) → 5.00 (Apr) → 5.10 (May) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015
2014 Annual Annual
Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permits²
16.3 24.5 -4.4 11.2
48.2 50.1 42.9 34.3
Q1 57.4 47.4 89.5 1.7 11.0
1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
14
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Q2
49.1 11.6 49.3 48.3 25.1
Q3 50.4 21.3 42.5 83.6 57.0
Q4 40.1 -26.5 37.8 45.9 40.4
Q11 14.3 18.1 13.7 16.4 19.7
Jan -3.9 19.5 -16.9 43.1 26.8
2016 Feb1 84.3 44.3 136.3 -8.8 27.8
Mar1 Apr1 -5.3 18.0 -11.6 1.9 -10.9 32.2 18.6 -24.9 9.9 -1.5
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300 (y-o-y, %) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Construction orders
2015.1
2016.1
Building permit area
5. Exports and imports
Exports declined 6.0 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $39.78 billion in May. Exports fell at a slower pace in May compared with the previous month partly due to more days worked (up 1 day). Shipments to most regions decreased at a slower rate and exports to the US turned positive. Major export items, including automobiles and steel products, declined at a slower pace than the previous month. Export growth by region in May (y-o-y, %) 0.7 (US), 0.1 (ASEAN countries), -6.7 (Latin America), -9.1 (China), -12.4 (Japan), -13.1 (EU), -14.4 (Middle East) Export growth by item in May (y-o-y, %) 3.6 (computers), 0.2 (petrochemicals), -4.0 (steel products), -4.1 (semiconductors), -7.1 (automobiles), -11.8 (mobile phones), -16.6 (vessels)
By volume, export growth slowed from 5.3 percent in the previous month to 2.7 percent. Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, increased month-on-month to US $1.85 billion in May. Average daily exports (billion) 1.62 (Jan 2016) → 1.80 (Feb) → 1.79 (Mar) → 1.82 (Apr) → 1.85 (May)
June 2016
15
(US $ billion)
2014 Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
2015
2016
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
May 42.33
Q1 115.62
572.66
526.76
133.40
135.10
128.23
130.02
2.3
-8.0
-3.0
-7.3
-9.5
2.11
1.93
2.01
1.99
1.87
43.01
Apr 41.05
May1 39.78
-12.0
-11.0
-13.3
-8.1
-11.2
-6.0
1.86
2.06
1.74
1.79
1.82
1.85
Mar
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Exports by item 160 140
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Export growth rate
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Semiconductors
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Automobiles
2016.1
Steel
Imports in May fell 9.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $32.70 billion. Imports fell at a slower pace compared with the previous month (down 14.9% → down 9.3%) as capital and consumer goods imports increased and commodities decreased at a slower rate. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, Apr → May) -24.2 → -19.6 (commodities), -6.9 → 0.4 (capital goods), -1.2 → 6.9 (consumer goods)
(US $ billion)
2014 Imports (y-o-y, %) Average daily imports
2015
2016
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Q1
Mar
Apr
May1
525.51
436.50
111.77
110.50
107.96
106.27
36.04
93.57
33.16
32.22
32.70
1.9
-16.9
-15.6
-15.6
-18.7
-17.8
-15.4
-16.3
-13.9
-14.9
-9.3
1.94
1.60
1.68
1.62
1.58
1.52
1.76
1.41
1.38
1.43
1.52
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
16
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Imports by category 100
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Import growth rate
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Commodities
2016.1
Capital goods
The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $7.08 billion in May, staying in the black for the 52nd consecutive month. Surpluses decreased compared with the previous month. (US $ billion)
2014 Trade balance
2015
2016
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Q1
Mar
Apr
May1
47.15
90.26
21.63
24.61
20.28
23.74
6.29
22.03
9.85
8.82
7.08
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Exports and imports
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
60 (US $ billion) 50
40
30
20
10
0 -10 2006.1
2007.1
Trade balance
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Exports
2016.1
Imports
June 2016
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production
Mining and manufacturing production fell 1.3 percent month-on-month in April as decreases in automobiles and other transportation equipment offset increases in semiconductors and primary metals. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index dropped 2.8 percent.
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2015.1
2016.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2015
2016
-
Q1 -0.3
Q4 -0.9
Apr -0.7
Q1¹ -0.6
Feb 3.2
Mar¹ -1.3
Apr¹ -1.3
-0.6
-1.1
-0.1
-2.2
-0.3
2.3
-0.6
-2.8
-
-0.3
-0.7
-0.6
-0.8
3.2
-1.2
-1.2
Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic consumption
-0.6
-1.2
0.1
-2.3
-0.4
2.1
-0.6
-2.8
-0.2
-0.7
-0.5
-0.7
-1.9
2.3
2.2
-1.6
0.4
0.4
-0.4
0.5
-0.9
0.7
3.8
-2.4
- Exports
-1.0
-2.0
-0.6
-2.2
-3.2
4.2
0.3
-0.6
Annual
Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m) (y-o-y) Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Inventory³
2.9
3.0
-5.3
1.7
3.9
1.9
0.0
-2.3
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)
74.3
74.3
73.6
74.4
73.2
73.5
73.7
71.0
1.2
1.6
0.7
1.7
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.5
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing and electricity & gas industry 3. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
Compared to the previous month, production of semiconductors (up 13.5%), primary metals (up 1.2%) and clothing & fur (up 5.1%) rose, while automobiles (down 6.3%), other transportation equipment (down
18
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
12.0%) and chemical products (down 3.1%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 15.1%), refined petroleum (up 9.1%) and cigarettes (up 20.8%) rose, while automobiles (down 8.7%), electronic parts (down 12.7%) and mechanical equipment (down 9.5%) declined. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to 124.2 percent as inventories fell 2.3 percent and shipments decreased 1.6 percent. Inventories of semiconductors (up 2.9%), processed metals (up 1.5%) and other products (up 9.9%) rose, while electronic parts (down 10.0%), refined petroleum (down 9.4%) and chemical products (down 4.8%) declined. Shipments of refined petroleum (up 6.0%), semiconductors (up 4.2%) and primary metals (up 0.9%) rose, while automobiles (down 5.0%), other transportation equipment (down 14.2%) and communications equipment (down 13.8%) fell.
Shipment and inventory
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
10 (m-o-m, %) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2006.1
2007.1
Shipment growth
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Inventory growth
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 2.7 percentage points month-on-month to 71.0 percent. Mining and manufacturing production for May will be affected by both positive and negative factors as exports have been declining at a slower pace and domestic sales of cars have taken advantage of the luxury sales tax cut, while the global economic recovery remains weak.
June 2016
19
Average manufacturing operation ratio 100
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
90
80
70
60
50 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
7. Service sector activity
Service output in April increased 0.5 percent month-on-month and 2.1 percent year-on-year. Month-on-month, healthcare & social welfare services (up 2.3%), financial & insurance services (up 1.4%) and hotels & restaurants (up 0.6%) increased, while professional, scientific & technical services (down 3.2%) and business services (down 1.8%) decreased. (Percentage change from previous period)
100.0
1.5
2.3
2.8
21.6
0.1
0.4
1.7
0.7
0.3
0.9
2.2 -0.8 -1.1
- Transportation services
8.5
1.0
1.7
1.4
-0.2
-2.6
1.9
1.9
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2
0.5
1.5
-2.0
-0.6
-3.4
- Publishing & communications services
8.4
2.2
2.0
-0.6
-1.9
-0.5
Service activity index - Wholesale & retail
- Financial & insurance services
2013 2014
2016 Feb Mar1 Apr1 0.3 0.5 0.5
2015 Q2 0.5 0.5
Weight
Annual Annual Annual
Q1
Q3 1.2
Q4 Q11 1.2 -0.1
3.3
0.5
1.1
1.4 -3.3
0.6
2.1
0.8 -0.3
0.2 -1.9
0.6
3.0
1.1 -0.5
1.2
1.7
1.6
2.4 -3.7
1.4
14.7
0.5
5.2
9.0
1.6
3.8
1.2 -0.4
- Real estate & renting
5.3
2.5
6.2
8.1
-0.8
6.4
0.9 -0.5 -3.8 -6.3
2.4
2.1
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
3.3
2.3
-0.4
-2.9
-0.1
1.6
0.3 -2.7 -4.0
8.0 -3.2
- Business services
3.3
2.1
2.5
3.9
2.3
0.4 -1.0
3.4
0.2
1.2
0.3 -1.8
- Education services
0.4
10.9
0.8
1.3
0.9
1.0
-0.6
0.0
1.0 -0.2
0.0
1.4 -0.5
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
5.2
6.3
6.2
1.9
0.0
1.4
3.1
0.4
0.8
2.3
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
-0.7
-1.0
1.1
1.5
-2.5
1.0
3.2 -2.4
4.4 -0.8
3.0
- Membership organizations & personal services
3.6
6.1
-0.5
-0.5
0.7
1.6 -0.2 -2.7
1.4
7.7 -2.0
0.0
- Sewerage & waste management
0.6
-0.4
1.0
7.2
0.6
3.6
1.5 -0.4 11.8 -5.6
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
20
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
4.6 -4.6
0.4
Service sector activity
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
15 (%) 10 5 0 -5 -10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
Wholesale & retail 15
2015.1
2016.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
10 5
0 -5 -10 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)
Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)
April 2016 service output by business 8
4
Transportation services
Total index
0
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
Publishing & communications services
(y-o-y, %)
Hotels & restaurants Wholesale & retail
2016.1
2015.1
Entertainment, cultural & sports services Professional, scientific & technical Real estate services & renting
Financial & insurance services
Membership organizations & personal services
Education services
Business services
Health & social welfare services
Sewerage & waste management
-4
The service output outlook for May is positive as domestic sales of cars and average daily stock transactions increased. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 11.2 (Jul 2015) → 8.9 (Aug) → 8.1 (Sep) → 8.7 (Oct) → 8.3 (Nov) → 7.1 (Dec) → 8.3 (Jan 2016) → 7.8 (Feb) → 7.5 (Mar) → 8.1 (Apr) → 8.5 (May)
June 2016
21
8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in April increased by 252,000 from a year earlier to 26,150,000, and the employment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 65.7 percent. By industry, services continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to drive employment growth, while daily workers fell at a faster pace, and self-employed workers kept decreasing.
Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,000
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(thousands)
(millions)
800
27
26
600
25
400 24 200 23
0
22
-200
21
-400 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Original data
22
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
Employment by industry
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
100
80
60
71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4 70.8 70.2 70.0 69.9 69.9 70.2 70.2 70.1 70.6 71.2 71.5 71.5 70.9 70.6
40 6.8
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
6.9
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.9
20 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.3 17.6 17.9 17.9 17.5 17.3 0 4.4 4.5 2014.1 2
5.3 3
6.1 4
6.4
6.5
5
6
6.2 7
6.2 8
Services
6.2 9
6.2 10
5.8 11
4.2 3.9 4.1 12 2015.1 2
4.9 3
Construction
5.9 6
5.8 7
5.7 8
5.7 9
5.6 10
Manufacturing
2012 2013
2014 Q4 Annual Q1
Annual Annual Annual Q3
Number of employed (millions)
5.9 5
5.5 4
5.1 11
4.0 3.6 3.8 12 2016.1 2
4.8 3
5.2 4
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Apr
Q1
2016 Mar Apr
24.68 25.07 25.60 25.93 25.77 25.94 25.27 26.10 26.24 26.14 25.90 25.55 25.80 26.15
Employment rate (%)
59.4 59.5 60.2 60.9 60.4 60.6 59.0 60.7 60.9 60.5 60.3 59.7 59.6 60.3
(Seasonally adjusted)
59.4 59.5 60.2 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.5 59.9 60.3 60.5 60.0 60.5 60.4 60.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
437
386
533
517
422
337
354
308
310
376
216
287
300
252
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
451
394
601
638
531
444
441
435
419
482
351
341
327
312
- Manufacturing
14
79
146
194
129
156
139
147
164
176
167
126
124
48
- Construction
22
-19
42
57
72
27
72
44
11
-19
63
-7
-33
-37
- Services
416
318
424
403
336
250
222
235
234
309
108
216
229
302
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-14
-8
-87 -127 -115 -106 -135
-54
-28
-60
-68 -121 -109 -107
Source: Statistics Korea
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.2
80
4.3
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.4
3.9
3.7
3.8
4.2
(%) 4.3
22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.3 21.2 6.3
6.0
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.2
6.0
6.0
5.7
6.2
6.5
6.2
6.1
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.5
19.8 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.5 60 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.2
40
20
48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0 48.5 48.1 47.8 47.9 48.0 48.5 48.6 48.7 48.7 49.7 50.4 50.6 49.9 49.4
0
Unpaid family workers
Self-employed workers
Daily workers
Temporary workers
Permanent workers
June 2016
23
2012 2013
Q4 Annual Q1
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Apr
Q1
2016 Mar Apr
2014
Annual Annual Annual Q3
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
437
386
533
517
422
337
354
308
310
376
216
287
300
252
- Wage workers
315
483
548
519
476
487
442
422
521
565
347
427
434
386
路 Permanent workers
436
615
443
333
355
432
355
332
505
536
300
505
510
459
路 Temporary workers
-2
-96
140
226
141
54
82
3
1
129
-31
15
34
96
-120
-37
-35
-40
-20
1
4
87
15 -100
78
-93 -110 -169
121
-97
-15
-3
124
-67
1
19
7
-89
-49
-37 -136 -135
-57
-96 -105 -105
- Male
234
186
266
268
196
132
141
145
111
132
121
107
130
74
- Female
203
200
267
249
226
205
213
163
199
244
95
180
170
178
- 15 to 29
-36
-50
77
102
56
68
32
90
50
100
85
40
76
43
- 30 to 39
-31
-21
-21
-7
-29
-38
-1
-56
-60
-36
-68
-21
-29
-22
路 Daily workers - Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers
-54 -151
-88 -114 -211 -189 -131 -140 -134 -133
- 40 to 49
11
22
38
15
4
-14
-47
-15
1
7
-26
6
7
-52
- 50 to 59
270
254
239
215
190
149
177
138
145
135
112
84
60
76
- 60 or more
222
181
200
192
201
172
192
150
174
169
114
179
185
208
Source: Statistics Korea
The number of unemployed persons in April was up 22,000 year-on-year to 1,075,000, and the unemployment rate stayed unchanged year-on-year at 3.9 percent. The unemployment rate fell in all age groups except in the groups of those aged 15 to 29 and those in their 60s or more. The economically inactive population in April increased 149,000 from a year earlier to 16,120,000, while the labor force participation rate remained unchanged year-on-year at 62.8 percent. Year-on-year, the number of those economically inactive due to education (down 112,000) and childcare (down 123,000) decreased, while those due to rest (up 150,000) increased. 2012 2013
2014
Annual Annual Annual
Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Apr
Q1
2016 Mar
Apr
Number of unemployed (thousands)
820
807
937
884
854
976
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
-35
-13
137
107
121
40
58
65
45
-9
23
64
79
22
- Male
-26
-6
49
37
59
24
25
42
31
-3
-1
51
82
30
- Female
1,089 1,042 929
845 1,053 1,153 1,155 1,075
-9
-7
80
70
63
16
32
23
14
-6
24
13
-3
-8
Unemployment rate (%)
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.6
4.1
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.9
4.3
4.3
3.9
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.7
- 15 to 29
7.5
8.0
9.0
8.6
8.3
9.2
10.3
9.9
8.4
8.0
10.2
11.3
11.8
10.9
- 30 to 39
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.0
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.6
3.2
3.3
3.3
- 40 to 49
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.3
- 50 to 59
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.6
2.4
1.9
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.4
- 60 or more
2.4
1.8
2.3
1.5
1.6
2.5
4.1
2.2
2.0
2.1
2.3
4.2
2.8
2.3
Source: Statistics Korea
24
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Unemployment rate 6
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
5
4
3
2 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Original data
Seasonally adjusted rate
Labor force participation rate 65
2016.1
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Original data
Seasonally adjusted rate
2012 2013
2014
Annual Annual Annual
Economically inactive population (millions)
2016.1
Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
2015 Q2 Q3
Q4
Apr
Q1
2016 Mar Apr
16.08 16.22 15.98 15.76 16.07 16.11 16.47 15.84 15.92 16.19 15.97 16.57 16.36 16.12
Labor force participation rate (%)
61.3
61.5
62.4
63.0 62.4 62.6 61.5 63.2 63.0 62.5 62.8 61.7 62.2 62.8
(Seasonally adjusted)
61.3
61.5
62.4
62.5 62.4 62.6 62.8 62.3 62.5 62.6 62.4 62.8 62.8 62.4
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
128
141 -246 -222 -101
- Childcare - Housework
-2 123
1 -39 -3 -131
- Education
-12
77
-81 -109
-72 -146 -141 -213 -112 -118 -197 -108 -145 -112
- Old age - Rest
148 -53
54 -7
93 -92
89 -15
-41 -99 91 -65
-31 -67
128
72
150
162
128
8 -45
41 -91
50 -41
3 -19
-63 -29
109 141
68 154
95 151
103 123
171 136
272
99
71 -115 -2 32 107 214
161 97
61
149
-81 -123 11 46 148 70
110 150
Source: Statistics Korea
June 2016
25
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market
The KOSPI fell 0.5 percent in May from 1,994 points to 1,983 points and the KOSDAQ was down 0.2 percent from 700 points to 699 points. The KOSPI dropped to 1,939 points on May 24 affected by the release of the April FOMC minutes, which signaled a possible rate hike in June. The index, however, rebounded toward the end of the month backed by bargain hunting and a rally in China’s Shanghai Composite Index. Shanghai Composite Index (p) 2,992.64 (May 1st) → 2,806.91 (May 19th) → 2,916.62 (May 31st)
Stock prices 2,200
(monthly average)
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
KOSPI
2016.1
KOSDAQ
(Closing rate)
Apr 2016
KOSPI May 2016
Change1
Apr 2016
KOSDAQ May 2016
Change1
Stock price index (points)
1,994.2
1,983.4
-10.8 (-0.5%)
699.8
698.5
-1.3 (-0.2%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,262.0
1,255.4
-6.6 (-0.5%)
212.6
212.7
0.1 (0.0%)
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
4.7
5.0
0.3 (6.4%)
3.4
3.5
0.1 (2.9%)
32.61
32.86
0.25 (0.8%)
9.76
9.82
0.06 (0.6%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month in May 2016 Source: Korea Exchange
26
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
9.2 Exchange rate
The dollar-won exchange rate rose to 1,191.7 won at the end of May as the dollar strengthened after the release of the April FOMC minutes, which signaled a June rate hike. The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose to 1,071.4 won in May as the dollar-yen exchange rate rebounded to around 111 yen amid a strong dollar. The yen fell to around 105 yen against the dollar in early May as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held off on further stimulus.
(Closing rate)
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Dec
2015 Dec
Apr
2016 May
Change1
Dollar-Won
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,099.3
1,172.5
1,139.3
1,191.7
-4.4
100 Yen-Won
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
913.0
974.1
1.062.2
1,071.4
-0.9
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year in May 2016 (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time. Source: Bank of Korea
Foreign exchange rates
Source: Bank of Korea
1,800 (month-end, \) 1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800 600 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Dollar-Won
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
100 Yen-Won
9.3 Bond market
Treasury bond yields fluctuated slightly in May amid expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of Korea (BOK) and affected by economic indicators released in major economies. In May, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year bond yields fell to record lows of 1.412 percent, 1.520 percent and 1.764 percent, respectively.
June 2016
27
Interest rates 10
Source: Bank of Korea
(monthly average, yearly, %)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2016.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(Closing rate, %)
Call rate (1 day)
2010 Dec 2.51
2011 Dec 3.29
2012 Dec 2.77
2013 Dec 2.52
2014 Dec 2.03
2015 Dec 1.52
2016 Mar 1.53
Apr 1.50
May 1.48
Change1 -2
CD (91 days)
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.66
2.13
1.67
1.61
1.61
1.56
-5
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.86
2.10
1.66
1.44
1.45
1.50
5
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
4.27
4.21
3.29
3.29
2.43
2.11
1.93
1.92
1.95
3
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.08
3.46
2.97
3.23
2.28
1.81
1.55
1.55
1.58
3
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month in May 2016 Source: Bank of Korea
9.4 Money supply and money market
M2 (monthly average) in March increased 7.8 percent from a year earlier. Private sector credit expanded at a slower pace, as corporate loans and security investments by depository institutions grew at a slower rate. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
M1²
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
10.9
M2
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
LfÂł
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
1. Balance at end March 2016, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) Source: Bank of Korea
28
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2016
18.6
Jan 20.7
Feb 19.4
Mar 18.8
Mar1 712.5
6.6
8.6
8.1
8.3
7.8
2,296.8
7.0
9.7
8.9
8.9
8.6
3,160.3
Total money supply Source: Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30
20
10
0
-10 -20 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Reserve money
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
M1
Lf
Bank deposits decreased month-on-month in April as instant access deposits fell 8.8 trillion won due to seasonal factors including fund withdrawals by corporations to pay value added taxes (VATs) and dividends. Asset management company (AMC) deposits surged led by money market funds (MMFs) as banks redeposited funds which they had temporarily withdrawn to meet their quarter-end financial ratio requirements.
Deposits in financial institutions 60
Source: Bank of Korea
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)
Bank deposits AMC deposits
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
36.9 -16.7
58.9 -16.6
37.0 18.8
41.0 17.7
115.4 42.4
100.3 44.4
Jan -2.9 23.5
Feb 13.4 11.6
2016 Mar 3.3 -11.1
Apr -11.0 7.4
Apr1 1,393.9 453.2
1. Balance at end April 2016 Source: Bank of Korea
June 2016
29
10. Balance of payments
Korea’s current account in April (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $3.37 billion, staying in the black for 50 consecutive months. The goods account surplus decreased month-on-month from US $12.45 billion to US $9.56 billion as exports declined at a faster rate. Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) -9.3 (Mar 2016) → -19.2 (Apr) Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) -16.1 (Mar 2016) → -18.7 (Apr) Export growth by item in April (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -11.2 (total), 0.0 (mobile phones), -11.8 (semiconductors), -16.9 (steel), -19.7 (automobiles), 24.1 (vessels), -39.7 (oil products) Import growth by category in April (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) -14.9 (total), -24.2 (commodities), -6.9 (capital goods), -1.2 (consumer goods)
Current account balance 14
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5
0
-5 2006.1
2007.1
Goods account
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Services account
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Current account
The services account deficit increased month-on-month from US $1.00 billion to US $1.62 billion, despite an improvement in the intellectual property rights account, as the construction account surplus fell, and the other businesses account deficit rose. Services account (US $ billion, Mar → Apr) -0.39 → -0.40 (manufacturing), -0.01 → -0.05 (transportation), -0.59 → -0.53 (travel), 0.92 → 0.55 (construction), -0.18 → -0.06 (intellectual property rights), -0.75 → -1.11 (other businesses)
30
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Travel balance
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
4 3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Travel balance
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Travel revenue
2016.1
Travel payment
The primary income account deficit expanded from US $0.86 billion to US $4.07 billion due to overseas dividend payments. The secondary income account deficit fell from US $0.51 billion to US $0.50 billion. (US $ billion)
2015 29.11
Q41 26.41
Apr1 7.73
Q11 24.08
2016 Mar1 10.09
33.68
30.64
31.76
12.09
27.88
12.45
9.56
-3.09
-3.56
-4.67
-0.80
-4.17
-1.00
-1.62
2014 105.87
Q11 22.44
Q21 27.92
88.89
120.29
24.22
-3.68
-15.71
-4.39
Annual
Annual1
Current account
84.37
- Goods balance - Services balance
Q31
Apr1 3.37
- Primary income balance
4.15
5.90
3.83
-1.56
2.73
0.90
-3.10
1.25
-0.86
-4.07
- Secondary income balance
-4.98
-4.61
-1.22
-1.11
-0.70
-1.58
-0.46
-0.88
-0.51
-0.50
1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account in April (preliminary) saw an outflow of US $0.17 billion. Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion) 9.80 (Apr 2015) → 11.08 (Oct) → 8.72 (Nov) → 7.86 (Dec) → 6.48 (Jan 2016) → 9.50 (Feb) → 12.24 (Mar) → 0.17 (Apr) * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows.
FDI ended April with a net inflow of US $0.14 billion, reversing from a net outflow of US $3.59 billion a month earlier as Korean FDI increased at a slower pace (up US $3.89 billion → up US $1.78 billion) while inbound FDI expanded at a faster pace (up US $0.30 billion → up US $1.93 billion). Net outflows of portfolio investment decreased from US $5.87 billion to US $3.36 billion as Korean investment in foreign shares expanded at a slower pace (up US $9.27 billion → up US $7.20 billion) while foreign investment in Korean shares increased at a faster pace (up US $3.40 billion → up US $3.84 billion). Financial derivatives investment ended the month with a net inflow of US $1.03 billion, reversing from a net outflow of US $0.79 billion, and other investment also reversed to a net inflow of US $3.33 billion from a net outflow of US $2.10 billion.
June 2016
31
The current account is expected to continue to be in surplus in May as net exports totaled US $7.08 billion.
Capital & financial account balance 15
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Direct investment
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Portfolio investment
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Financial derivatives
2015.1
2016.1
Capital & financial account
11. Prices
11.1 Consumer prices
Consumer prices rose 0.8 percent year-on-year in May.
Consumer price inflation 7
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
32
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Consumer price inflation
(%)
2015 Month-on-Month Year-on-Year
Jul 0.7 0.2
Aug 0.7 0.2
Sep 0.6 -0.2
Oct 0.9 0.0
Nov 1.0 -0.1
Dec 1.3 0.3
Jan 0.8 0.0
2016 Mar 1.0 -0.3
Feb 1.3 0.8
Apr 1.0 0.1
May 0.8 0.0
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices 16
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(y-o-y, %)
12 8 4 0 -4 -8 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Consumer price inflation
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2016.1
2015.1
Core inflation
Producer price inflation
Prices of agricultural, livestock & fishery products grew at a slower pace, increasing 1.3 percent compared to 5.5 percent in the previous month, due to supplies of newly harvested produce and the government’s efforts to balance supply and demand. Oil product prices rose month-on-month but fell 11.6 percent year-on-year due to a high base effect. Personal service prices rose 2.2 percent after increasing 2.0 percent a month earlier, affected by a temporary holiday.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total Apr (y-o-y, %) May (y-o-y, %) - Contribution (%p)
1.0 0.8 -
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products 5.5 1.3 0.10
Manufactured Oil products products -0.6 -11.8 -0.9 -11.6 -0.27 -0.49
Public utilities -8.0 -6.4 -0.30
Public services 2.2 2.2 0.30
Personal services 2.0 2.2 0.69
Housing rents 2.7 2.6 0.25
Source: Statistics Korea
Core inflation stood at just under 2.0 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015 Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products Consumer prices excluding food and energy
2016
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
2.1 2.5
2.1 2.5
2.3 2.6
2.4 2.7
Dec 2.4 2.8
Jan 1.7 1.9
Feb
Mar
1.8 2.0
1.7 1.9
Apr 1.8 1.9
May 1.6 1.8
Source: Statistics Korea
June 2016
33
Fresh food prices increased at a slower pace as vegetable prices stabilized. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2015 Fresh food prices
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
6.0
4.0
0.7
3.7
Nov 3.0
Dec 6.2
Jan
Feb
4.2
9.7
2016 Mar 9.7
Apr 9.6
May 3.5
Source: Statistics Korea
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
International oil prices rose in May due to a projected decline in US oil inventories and supply disruptions in major oil producing countries including Canada and Nigeria. Wildfires in Canada’s oilproducing Alberta province and militant attacks on oil-producing facilities in Nigeria lowered oil output in those countries. Dubai crude prices rose to US $45.9 per barrel on May 31. Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 42.4 (1st week May) → 43.1 (2nd week) → 45.4 (3rd week) → 45.1 (4th week)
International oil prices 160
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
(US $/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Dubai crude
2016.1
WTI
(US $/barrel, period average)
2014
2016
Annual
Annual
Dubai crude
96.6
50.7
Q1 51.9
2015 Q2 60.5
Brent crude
99.4
53.6
55.1
63.5
51.3
44.7
35.2
31.9
33.5
39.8
43.3
47.7
WTI crude
92.9
48.8
48.6
58.0
46.5
42.2
33.7
31.8
30.6
38.0
41.1
46.8
Q3 49.9
Q4 40.8
Q1 30.5
Jan 26.9
Feb 28.9
Mar 35.2
Apr 39.0
May 44.3
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
34
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Domestic gasoline prices continued to rise in May due to a strong dollar and rising international oil prices. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,368.7 (1st week May) → 1,376.8 (2nd week) → 1,389.2 (3rd week) → 1,407.1 (4th week) International gasoline prices (US $/barrel) 50.4 (3rd week Apr) → 54.7 (4th week) → 53.9 (1st week May) → 53.8 (2nd week) Dollar-won exchange rate (won) 1,141.9 (3rd week Apr) → 1,146.1 (4th week) → 1,138.7 (1st week May) → 1,164.9 (2nd week)
(Won/liter, period average)
2016 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Gasoline prices 1,827.3 1,510.4 1,485.4 1,543.2 1,544.4 1,468.4 1,362.6 1,385.3 1,351.7 1,350.1 1,361.7 1,388.7 2014
Annual
Diesel prices
Annual
1,637.7 1,299.6 1,312.6 1,344.2 1,309.3 1,232.6 1,121.0 1,157.3 1,101.1 1,103.1 1,121.4 1,157.9
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
(thousand won/B)
(US $/B)
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40 20
20 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
International wheat prices fell due to a good harvest. International prices of soybeans and corn rose as soybean stocks and corn production are expected to decrease. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast on May 10 that global soybean ending stocks for 2016/17 would decrease by more than 6 million tons compared with those for 2015/16. The USDA also cut its estimate for Brazil’s corn production this year from 84 million tons to 81 million tons. International grain price increases in May (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -0.5 (wheat), 10.1 (soybean), 4.9 (corn)
June 2016
35
International prices of nonferrous metals fell due to China’s economic slowdown and concerns over a supply glut. Refined copper production in China increased by about 10 percent year-on-year in JanuaryApril, and copper production in Peru, the third largest copper producing country, surged by more than 50 percent in the first quarter. International aluminum prices edged up. Nonferrous metal price increases in May (monthly average, m-o-m, %) -2.6 (copper), -1.8 (tin), -1.6 (nickel), -2.0 (lead), 0.2 (aluminum)
International commodity prices
Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * C RB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 4000
470 430
3000
390 350
2000
310 270
1000
230 190 150
0 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
CRB (left)
2016.1
Reuters Index (right)
(Period average)
2014 Annual Annual
Reuters Index1 (Sep 18,1931=100) 2,523
2,328
2016 Mar
Q1
2015 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Jan
Feb
2,368
2,394
2,287
2,269
2,115
2,147
2,067
2,132
Apr
May
2,161 2,222
1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
Apartment prices nationwide rose 0.03 percent month-on-month in May. Apartment prices rose 0.09 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.15%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.06%) and Incheon (up 0.05%).
36
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Apartment prices fell 0.02 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, which include the five metropolitan cities (up 0.03%) and the eight provinces (down 0.05%). Apartment price increases in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.1), Daegu (-0.1), Gwangju (0.0), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.1)
Apartment sales prices by region
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
3
2
1
0
-1 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
Nationwide
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2015.1
7
2016.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Apartment prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2015
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Apr
2016 Mar Apr 0.00 0.02
May 0.03
Nationwide
1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
3.5
0.4
May Annual Feb 0.3 0.1 0.00
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
1.5
4.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.09
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
1.1
4.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.00
0.01
0.08
0.15
Gangnamš
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
1.2
5.2
0.6
0.6
0.3
-0.03 -0.02
0.09
0.20
Gangbuk²
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
1.1
3.9
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.04
0.07
0.09
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.9
2.7
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.00 -0.01
0.04
0.00 -0.02
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices nationwide rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in May. Rental prices increased 0.2 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and stayed unchanged in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increases in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.1), Seocho (0.0), Songpa (0.0), Mapo (0.3), Gwanak (0.3), Guro (0.3)
June 2016
37
Apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2015
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2016 Mar 0.1
Apr 0.1
May 0.1
Nationwide
7.1
12.3
3.5
4.7
3.4
4.8
0.6
May Annual Feb 0.4 0.6 0.1
Seoul metropolitan area
6.3
11.0
2.1
6.2
4.7
7.1
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Seoul
6.4
10.8
2.1
6.6
3.6
7.2
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Gangnamš
7.6
11.1
2.4
6.7
3.3
7.9
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Gangbuk²
5.1
10.6
1.8
6.4
3.8
6.5
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
2.2
2.8
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
2014.1
7
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Apr
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3
(m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1
-2 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
Nationwide
2012.1
2013.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
Monthly apartment transaction volume 160
7
2015.1
7
2016.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
(thousands)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
Nationwide
38
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
7
2016.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Apartment sales transactions in April increased 10.8 percent to 86,298 transactions from 77,853 transactions a month earlier and decreased 28.4 percent year-on-year from 120,488 transactions.
Apartment sales transactions 2011
2012
2013
(Thousands)
Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1
Nationwide
82
61
71
Apr
2016 2015 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
120
110 110 111
2014 84
99
94
86
106
98
88
62
59
78
86
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
12.2 Land market
Land prices nationwide rose 0.21 percent month-on-month in April. Land prices increased 0.20 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Seoul (up 0.23%) and Incheon (up 0.19%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.18 (Sep 2015) → 0.21 (Oct) → 0.20 (Nov) → 0.20 (Dec) → 0.13 (Jan 2016) → 0.14 (Feb) → 0.18 (Mar) → 0.20 (Apr)
Land prices rose 0.24 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Daejeon (up 0.28%), Ulsan (up 0.15%) and North Chungcheong Province (up 0.13%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.22 (Sep 2015) → 0.25 (Oct) → 0.32 (Nov) → 0.34 (Dec) → 0.24 (Jan 2016) → 0.22 (Feb) → 0.27 (Mar) → 0.24 (Apr)
Land prices 2010
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011
2012
2013
2015
2014
2016
Nationwide
1.05
1.17
0.96
1.14
1.96
2.40
Q1 0.48
Seoul
0.53
0.97
0.38
1.21
2.66
2.69
0.57
0.69
0.69
0.72
0.80
0.57
0.18
0.21
0.23
Gyeonggi
1.49
1.47
1.04
0.91
1.24
1.73
0.35
0.41
0.43
0.52
0.54
0.37
0.11
0.17
0.17
Incheon
1.43
0.66
0.46
0.87
1.35
1.95
0.37
0.53
0.54
0.50
0.53
0.34
0.12
0.13
0.19
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Q1 0.56
Feb
0.60
Q4 Annual 0.72 0.78
0.17
Mar 0.22
Apr 0.21
Q2
Q3
0.59
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
There were 245,000 land transactions in April, down 1.0 percent from the previous month and 16.2 percent from a year ago (293,000). Land transactions increased month-on-month in the Seoul metropolitan area including Seoul (up 8.6%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.8%). Land transactions decreased in the areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Daejeon (down 6.4%), South Chungcheong Province (down 19.7%), North
June 2016
39
Jeolla Province (down 11.0%) and North Gyeongsang Province (down 11.4%). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 39.4 percent of total land transactions, recorded 97,000 in April, down 7.2 percent month-on-month and 6.4 percent compared with a year ago (103,000).
Land transactions
(Land lots, thousands)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 2016 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Nationwide 187 208 170 187 220 257 293 262 279 290 241 229 263 259 274 207 191 248 245 Seoul
16
18
13
17
22
30
36
34
33
36
29
27
31
29
28
21
20
26
28
Gyeonggi
41
43
33
37
46
58
66
60
65
62
56
58
63
61
62
48
44
56
57
Incheon
8
10
8
8
10
12
13
12
13
15
13
12
14
13
12
8
8
10
12
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Land transaction volume 500,000
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Land and consumer prices since 1970s 60
2013.1
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(y‐o‐y, %)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1975
1980
1985
1990
Land price inflation
40
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Consumer price inflation
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
Industrial output in April decreased 0.8 percent month-on-month and increased 0.8 percent year-on-year. Output rose month-on-month in services (up 0.5%), and fell in mining & manufacturing (down 1.3%), construction (down 6.7%) and public administration (down 4.0%).
Index of all industry production 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2015.1
2016.1
Index of all industry production (y-o-y)
2015 Sep
2016
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb1
Mar1
Apr1
1.0 4.6
-0.8 2.5
-0.5 2.0
1.5 2.8
-1.4 1.7
0.7 2.5
0.7 2.4
-0.8 0.8
Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
128.0 0.9
128.8 0.6
129.1 0.2
129.6 0.4
129.7 0.1
130.1 0.3
130.5 0.3
131.0 0.4
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p)
100.6 0.6
100.9 0.3
100.7 -0.2
100.7 0.0
100.5 -0.2
100.4 -0.1
100.4 0.0
100.4 0.0
Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %)
133.3 1.0
134.3 0.8
134.8 0.4
135.0 0.1
135.4 0.3
135.9 0.4
136.7 0.6
137.7 0.7
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
102.5 0.5
102.8 0.3
102.6 -0.2
102.2 -0.4
102.0 -0.2
101.8 -0.2
102.0 0.2
102.2 0.2
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
1. Preliminary
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index remained unchanged at 100.4. Five components of the coincident composite index, such as retail sales, the value of construction completed and domestic shipments, increased, while two others, including imports and nonfarm payroll employment, decreased.
June 2016
41
Components of the coincident composite index in April (m-o-m) retail sales (0.8%), value of construction completed (0.6%), domestic shipments (0.5%), service output (0.3%), mining & manufacturing production (0.2%), imports (-1.1%), nonfarm payroll employment (-0.1%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 102.2. Five components of the leading composite index, including the value of construction orders received, the inventory circulation indicator and domestic shipments of machinery, were up, while four others, such as the ratio of export to import prices and international commodity prices, were down. Components of the leading composite index in April (m-o-m) value of construction orders received (8.0%), inventory circulation indicator (2.4%p), domestic shipments of machinery (1.8%), KOSPI (1.8%), consumer expectations index (1.0p), ratio of export to import prices (-1.2%), international commodity prices (-0.6%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-0.4%p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.05%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2006.1
42
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Policy Issue
Government launches a ministerial meeting to facilitate industrial restructuring Government unveils its plan to reform public institutions in energy, environment and education sectors Revisions to FX regulations focus on flexibility
Government Launches a Ministerial Meeting to Facilitate Industrial Restructuring
The government launched the Ministerial Meeting on Industrial Restructuring on June 8 in order to accelerate corporate restructuring in the shipping and shipbuilding industries, and promote industrial restructuring to help develop future growth engines. Deputy Prime Minister Yoo Il Ho will lead the meeting, and the June 8 meeting discussed the proceedings of restructuring in shipping and shipbuilding companies, and plans to recapitalize state-run banks involved in the restructuring.
Background The current industrial structure needs to be reformed as the global industrial structure has been fast changing. The government has been working on transforming major industries into high value added ones, while continuing to pursue the development of new growth engines. The meeting will discuss mid- to long-term challenges as well as find solutions to current problems with regard to corporate and industrial restructuring.
Proceedings of restructuring in shipping and shipbuilding companies Companies under restructuring are required to take steps according to their own plans and responsibilities.
1) Shipping industry Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) The creditor group agreed on the company’s debt restructuring proposal on condition that HMM would successfully conclude its negotiations with bond holders and shipowners, and that HMM would join a shipping alliance. HMM has gained bond holders’ approval for the debt restructuring proposal, and is expected to successfully conclude negotiations with shipowners on charter rates. Hanjin Shipping Hanjin is now undergoing negotiations with 22 shipowners on charter rates, and will meet with bond holders for debt restructuring. Hanjin is required to secure liquidity. 44
Policy Issue
2) Shipbuilding industry The ‘Big Three’, Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, have prepared plans in case of further slumps and economic downturn. Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) HHI plans to raise 3.5 trillion won by selling non-core assets, streaming management and reorganizing businesses. Creditor banks evaluate that HHI’s plan will be able to withstand further cuts in orders. Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI) SHI prepared a plan worth 1.5 trillion won including the issuance of asset-backed securities and new stocks to increase capital. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) DSME has submitted an additional plan worth 3.5 trillion won as creditor banks asked for stronger measures to secure liquidity in addition to the previous one worth 1.85 trillion won. DSME’s previous plan is now underway.
Recapitalization of state-run banks The government will successfully deal with any repercussions in the market as it has finalized plans to finance state-run banks involved in the restructuring of shipping and shipbuilding companies, the Korea Development Bank (KDB) and the Export-Import Bank of Korea (KEXIM). The Recapitalization Fund, which consists of 10 trillion won from the BOK and 1 trillion won from the government, will purchase contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) issued by the KDB and the KEXIM. The fund is scheduled to be launched in July 2016 and run until the end of 2017. < Framework for recapitalization of state-run banks >
Government
direct injection of 1 trillion won (increase in common equity Tier 1)
KDB
KEXIM buy CoCos
establish and operate SPC
KAMCO
Recapitalization Fund (11 trillion won)
BOK’s direct capital injection will be considered in case of systemic risk
BOK
loan (10 trillion won) subordinated loan (1 trillion won)
KAMCO BOK loan (10 trillion won) payment guarantee
KODIT
IBK
(conduit bank)
in-kind contribution
KAMCO: Korea Asset Management Corporation KODIT: Korea Credit Guarantee Fund
June 2016
45
Layoffs and local economies With regard to the restructuring of shipbuilders, the government will work to minimize the effect on employment and local economies. The government will decide whether to designate the shipbuilding industry as a sector that requires special support for laid off workers and small-sized affiliates, and will announce details by the end of June.
A view of Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering's Okpo Shipyard in Geoje, South Gyeongsang Province on March 8. The government recently launched the Ministerial Meeting on Industrial Restructuring to accelerate corporate restructuring in the shipping and shipbuilding industries.
Government Unveils its Plan to Reform Public Institutions in Energy, Environment and Education Sectors
The government unveiled on June 14 its plan to reform public institutions in the energy, environment and education sectors. The plan deals with reforming the current functions and capacities in order to ensure that public enterprises focus on their core competencies, provide high-quality services and boost management efficiency. 46
Policy Issue
Five public institutions will be subject to M&As, two will undergo restructuring and 29 will adjust their business models. The government will minimize layoffs by promoting workforces to transfer to the companies where their jobs are moved, and will prepare measures to help change jobs.
Energy sector Restructure overlapping functions - Korea Electrical Engineering and Science Research Institute to be merged with Electric Power Research Institute - Electric power exporters to focus on their specified areas: Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) to focus on large scale projects and new energy industries, while the five electric power generating public companies1 to focus on new renewable energy - Electrical safety inspection, currently carried out by both KEPCO and Korea Electrical Safety Corporation, to be conducted by Korea Electrical Safety Corporation only -H ydropower facilities to be managed by K-water, instead of Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Corporation (KHNP) Focus on core competencies - Korea Coal Corporation to be downsized - Overseas energy development projects to be managed more efficiently2: Korea National Oil Corporation and Korea Gas Corporation will be restructured with a focus on core assets and increased cooperation with the private sector, while Korea Resources Corporation will downsize its overseas resources development sector. - KEPCO to stop overseas power generation resources development and gradually sell shares it holds in nine mine fields - Korea Electrical Safety Corporation to stop serving non-core functions, such as electrical product approval and electric pole management -K orea National Oil Corporation to transfer some of its functions to Korea Energy Agency, such as the management and appropriation of the Energy Special Account Open markets to the private sector - Private companies to be able to engage in electric power retailing, currently carried out by KEPCO3 - Gas imports and the wholesale market to be gradually open to the private sector starting in 2025 - Private companies to be able to engage in the maintenance of electric power generation equipment, currently carried out exclusively by KEPCO Plant Service and Engineering
1. Korea South-East Power Corporation, Korea Southern Power Corporation, Korea East-West Power Corporation, Korea Western Power Corporation, Korea Midland Power Corporation 2. Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy will announce plans regarding the issue. 3. Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy will announce plans regarding the issue this year.
June 2016
47
- More private companies to be able to participate in nuclear power plant design, one of the functions carried out by KEPCO Engineering and Construction - KEPCO to close its fiber optic cable installation business in 2017 in order to avoid possible overlaps with the private sector Promote sound management - A total of 20-30 percent of shares in eight energy public enterprises to be listed starting in the first half of 2017, which will put those companies under market watch and eventually improve their financial soundness - Korea District Heating Corporation to increase capital by issuing new stocks in order to improve its financial conditions - Korea Resources Corporation and Korea District Heating Corporation to sell shares they hold in 10 companies whose businesses are irrelevant to their core functions Strengthen the new energy sector - KHNP to focus more on exporting nuclear energy and the International Nuclear Graduate School, currently operated by KEPCO, to go under KHNP - Energy public enterprises to increase investment in new energy industries
Environment sector Restructure overlapping functions - The National Institute of Ecology and three other ecology public institutions to be merged into one - Overlapping services between Korea Environment Corporation and Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute to be fixed: Korea Environment Corporation to focus on environmental protection and Korea Environmental Industry and Technology to focus on product safety Open market to the private sector - Korea Environment Corporation to close businesses where it unnecessarily competes with the private sector, such as recycling facilities management, from 2017 - Contracts made between local governments and Korea Environment Corporation for the operation of environmental facilities not to be extended
Education sector Restructure overlapping functions - Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information to be made in charge of purchasing information from overseas, which has been jointly done with Korea Education and Research Information Service Avoid unnecessary competition with the private sector - Korea Foundation for the Promotion of Private Schools to close their teacher training programs if they overlap with programs provided by the private sector 48
Policy Issue
Plans for the future Ministries will have prepared schedules specific to industries and corporations by July, and the Ministry of Strategy and Finance will examine the implementation of the plan by regularly holding meetings.
Revisions to FX Regulations Focus on Flexibility
The government will ease foreign exchange (FX) regulations: Macroprudential regulations and banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; FX liquidity regulations, each of which are aimed at avoiding systemic risks and helping banks secure FX liquidity. The decision was made as foreign capital inflows have been stabilized amid the US monetary policies getting less expansionary while there is a need to be prepared for outflow increases that may follow the impending external risks, such as the outcomes of the Brexit referendum, the Fedâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rate hike and the US presidential election. Caps on FX forward positions will be raised as of July 1, 2016, from 30 percent to 40 percent for local banks and from 150 percent to 200 percent for foreign bank branches in Korea, while the bank levy rate will be held at the current level of 0.1 percent and will be imposed on short-term liabilities: on the amount which will reach maturity in a year or less. The bank levy rate may be temporarily lowered in case of sudden capital outflows. The Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (the ratio of high liquid FX assets to net short-term obligations for the month to come) will be adopted in 2017, and overlapping regulations will be lifted: Different ratios will be applied in 2017 according to the types of banks (commercial banks to meet 60 percent, while some public financial institutions to meet 40 percent), but all banks will have to meet 80 percent as of 2019, except Korea Development Bank which will have to meet 60 percent. The revised law allows the government to lower ratios in case of a crisis.
June 2016
49
Economic News Briefing
BOK cuts key rate to 1.25% Government revises regulations to allow won-yuan direct trading in China ODA budget for 2017 to be 2.7 tn won Korea and China discuss joint project development Korea grows 0.5% in Q1 (preliminary)
BOK cuts key rate to 1.25% The Bank of Korea (BOK) cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.25 percent on June 9, lowering the rate for the first time in 12 months. The central bank warned that weak exports and domestic demand are posing risks to the economy, as well as slowing job growth. The BOK stated that it will continue to monitor external risks such as Brexit, monetary policy changes in major countries and global capital flows, while keeping an eye on the progress of corporate restructuring and household debt growth.
Government revises regulations to allow won-yuan direct trading in China The government has revised regulations on foreign exchange transactions in order to lift hurdles to opening the won-yuan direct trade market in China, scheduled at the end of June. The revision allows individuals and businesses to use the won for won-yuan spot trading and the settlement of accounts, in addition to trade settlement. The won clearing bank will be able to borrow up to 3 trillion won from its head office in Korea without reporting to the BOK.
ODA budget for 2017 to be 2.7 tn won The government is planning to spend 2.7 trillion won on official development assistance (ODA) programs in 2017, an increase of 289.2 billion won from this year. About 28 percent of the budget will go to development cooperation, and more than 70 percent will go to programs related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Korea and China discuss joint project development The Ministry of Strategy and Finance (MOSF) hosted the 14th Korea-China Ministerial Meeting on Economic Cooperation on May 27. Deputy Prime Minister Yoo Il Ho and China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) director Xu Shaoshi attended the meeting along with officials from both countries. The MOSF and NDRC discussed developing joint projects to accelerate cooperation on President Park’s Eurasia Initiative and Xi Jinping’s One Belt and One Road as follow ups to the 2015 Korea-China summit. With regard to cooperation on the Eurasia Initiative and One Belt and One Road, the MOSF proposed working on the development of a logistics complex in Hunchun, China and a new port in Russia, and the NDRC proposed developing Northeast China. Korea suggested forming a MOSF-NDRC high-level official conference and four working groups, each of which specialize in financing, joint research, joint corporate projects and development cooperation.
June 2016
51
Korea grows 0.5% in Q1 (preliminary) Koreaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016, according to preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea on June 2. Both the quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year figures were revised up 0.1 percentage points from the advanced estimates that were released on April 26. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries grew 6.5 percent quarter-on-quarter. Manufacturing contracted 0.2 percent as production of machinery, equipment and automobiles decreased, while construction grew 4.8 percent as both building construction and civil engineering works increased. Services expanded 0.5 percent, led by financial & insurance services and healthcare & social welfare services. On the expenditure side, private consumption declined 0.2 percent, while government consumption rose 1.3 percent. Facility investment contracted 7.4 percent, while construction investment and intellectual property investment rose 6.8 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Exports declined 1.1 percent, led by oil products and automobiles, while imports declined 3.1 percent, led by machinery and transportation equipment.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period)
20151
2014
20161
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
GDP
1.1 (3.9)2
0.6 (3.5)2
0.7 (3.4)2
0.3 (2.7)2
0.8 (2.4)2
0.4 (2.2)2
1.2 (2.8)2
0.7 (3.1)2
0.5 (2.8)2
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-1.6
-0.4
1.6
1.7
3.7
-11.0
4.7
-2.6
6.5
Manufacturing
1.8
1.0
-0.7
-0.2
0.4
0.9
0.4
0.7
-0.2
Construction
1.9
0.1
-0.2
-2.1
1.8
-0.1
5.5
0.7
4.8
Services
0.9
0.4
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.2
1.1
0.7
0.5
Private consumption
0.4
-0.3
0.7
0.3
0.8
-0.1
1.1
1.4
-0.2
Government consumption
0.5
0.8
1.9
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.0
1.3
Facility investment
-1.1
1.3
0.3
3.5
0.5
0.8
1.8
0.5
-7.4
Construction investment
3.3
1.1
-0.8
-4.9
5.5
1.8
3.3
-2.4
6.8
Intellectual property investment
2.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
1.7
-0.6
0.3
0.7
0.3
Exports
0.8
1.1
-1.5
0.3
0.6
-0.1
-0.3
2.1
-1.1
Imports
-1.6
0.8
-0.1
0.4
0.9
0.4
1.4
3.2
-3.1
3
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
52
Economic News Briefing
Statistical Appendices
01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
1. National accounts Period
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p
2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3 2.6
5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 3.6 -1.5
3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 3.5 1.3
2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4
-0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.4 3.8
-2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.1 3.9
-0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 6.0 5.3
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.3 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.3
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.1
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.0
-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0
8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.5 2.4 2.1 2.2
0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.3 -0.9 -3.6
-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4
11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5
-1.2 0.1 4.3 7.0
2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2
1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6
-3.2 4.2 4.9 6.5
1.2 8.9 7.5 3.5
-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.7
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3.9 3.5 3.4 2.7
5.9 4.5 2.7 2.4
4.7 4.7 3.1 1.8
2.9 1.8 2.0 1.6
6.1 3.6 3.6 0.8
4.5 0.3 2.3 -1.7
7.4 7.9 4.4 4.4
2015pⅠ Ⅱ Ⅱ Ⅳ
2.4 2.2 2.8 3.1
7.5 -4.0 -0.8 -5.0
0.6 0.5 1.5 2.4
1.9 2.1 2.4 3.4
2.6 2.2 5.1 5.4
0.9 1.0 5.6 7.5
5.8 5.1 6.7 3.9
2016pⅠ
2.8
-2.4
1.9
2.7
3.0
9.6
-4.5
p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
54
(year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP
Statistical Appendices
2. Production, shipment and inventory Period
Production index*
Shipment index*
y-o-y change (%)
Inventory index*
y-o-y change (%)
(constant prices, 2010=100)
Service production index
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
108.2 108.4 107.7
0.7 0.2 -0.6
108.1 108.0 107.8
0.8 -0.1 -0.2
130.7 127.4 131.2
4.4 -2.5 3.0
106.4 108.9 112.0
1.5 2.3 2.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.0 109.3 104.3 113.0
-0.6 0.4 0.6 2.2
106.1 109.4 104.5 112.2
-0.5 0.9 0.7 2.2
123.1 119.2 124.5 130.7
4.6 3.8 8.7 4.4
103.2 106.8 105.6 110.0
1.2 1.8 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.9 109.8 105.6 111.3
0.8 0.5 1.2 -1.5
106.6 109.3 104.9 111.3
0.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.8
129.6 128.2 129.0 127.4
5.3 7.6 3.6 -2.5
105.4 108.6 108.5 113.1
2.1 1.7 2.7 2.8
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
105.7 108.4 105.5 111.2
-1.1 -1.3 -0.1 -0.1
106.0 108.1 105.8 111.2
-0.6 -1.1 0.9 -0.1
132.2 134.0 137.7 131.2
2.0 4.5 6.7 3.0
108.2 111.5 111.6 116.8
2.7 2.7 2.9 3.3
2016 Ⅰp
105.4
-0.3
105.1
-0.8
136.1
3.0
111.2
2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.5 101.2 113.0 112.3 108.5 108.6 112.5 101.2 103.2 110.1 108.7 115.0
-4.2 4.0 3.1 2.6 -1.9 0.7 4.2 -2.6 2.1 -2.8 -3.1 1.4
105.4 101.4 113.1 111.1 108.7 108.1 109.6 101.7 103.4 109.4 109.5 115.1
-4.2 3.3 2.6 1.6 -1.5 -0.5 2.3 -3.1 2.0 -2.8 -1.7 2.2
131.6 128.8 129.6 130.7 129.6 128.2 132.6 129.9 129.0 130.0 129.2 127.4
2.3 3.4 5.3 8.3 6.5 7.6 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.9 0.1 -2.5
104.8 101.9 109.6 107.1 109.0 109.8 108.9 108.1 108.5 110.8 109.9 118.7
2.3 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.2 2.6 3.1 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.3 3.5
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.1 96.0 113.1 109.8 105.2 110.3 108.7 101.4 106.3 112.4 108.5 112.6
1.5 -5.1 0.1 -2.2 -3.0 1.6 -3.4 0.2 3.0 2.1 -0.2 -2.1
108.1 96.6 113.2 109.6 105.4 109.2 107.5 102.1 107.7 112.6 108.4 112.7
2.6 -4.7 0.1 -1.4 -3.0 1.0 -1.9 0.4 4.2 2.9 -1.0 -2.1
131.3 131.9 132.2 133.7 133.0 134.0 137.1 136.8 137.7 136.1 136.2 131.2
-0.2 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 4.5 3.4 5.3 6.7 4.7 5.4 3.0
106.9 104.7 113.0 111.7 111.5 111.4 111.7 110.6 112.6 114.1 113.2 123.1
2.0 2.7 3.1 4.3 2.3 1.5 2.6 2.3 3.8 3.0 3.0 3.7
2016 1 2 3p 4p
105.7 98.2 112.4 106.7
-2.2 2.3 -0.6 -2.8
103.9 97.5 114.0 107.5
-3.9 0.9 0.7 -1.9
136.9 136.6 136.1 132.2
4.3 3.6 3.0 -1.1
110.1 107.6 115.9 114.0
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.1
* Including mining, manufacturing, electricity & gas and water industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
June 2016
55
3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
Production capacity index* (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio* (%)
2013 2014 2015
108.6 110.4 111.7
1.6 1.7 1.2
95.1 94.3 92.1
-2.5 -0.8 -2.3
76.5 76.2 74.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.1 108.3 108.8 109.3
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7
93.7 97.9 90.8 98.3
-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 0.0
77.4 76.1 75.4 77.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
109.7 109.9 110.7 111.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7
92.9 96.8 91.5 95.8
-0.9 -1.1 0.8 -2.5
77.2 76.3 75.9 75.2
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
111.5 111.6 111.7 112.0
1.6 1.5 0.9 0.7
90.0 94.9 89.8 93.8
-3.1 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1
74.3 74.3 74.9 73.6
2016 Ⅰp
112.0
0.4
88.6
-1.6
73.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 109.6 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 111.0 111.1 111.1 111.3
1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
91.9 87.6 99.1 99.7 95.6 95.1 98.7 86.8 89.0 95.9 94.0 97.6
-7.1 3.2 2.0 1.8 -3.8 -1.2 4.3 -4.3 2.3 -3.8 -4.3 0.7
77.9 76.1 77.7 77.5 75.1 76.3 77.7 74.8 75.1 74.2 74.8 76.7
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.5 111.3 111.8 111.5 111.6 111.7 111.5 111.5 112.1 112.1 112.0 111.9
1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5
92.8 81.0 96.3 95.8 91.8 97.1 94.7 86.0 88.8 95.4 91.8 94.2
1.0 -7.5 -2.8 -3.9 -4.0 2.1 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.5 -2.3 -3.5
73.9 74.7 74.2 74.4 73.5 75.0 74.4 75.4 74.9 74.0 73.1 73.8
2016 1 2 3p 4p
111.8 111.9 112.2 112.1
0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
89.0 81.2 95.6 89.7
-4.1 0.2 -0.7 -6.4
72.3 73.5 73.7 71.0
* Manufacturing industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
Operation ratio index* (2010=100)
Statistical Appendices
4. Consumer goods sales index
(constant prices, 2010=100)
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods
Period
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
107.9 110.1 114.4
0.7 2.0 3.9
116.7 122.7 135.2
0.3 5.1 10.2
106.1 105.3 104.0
2.1 -0.8 -1.2
104.7 106.4 109.1
0.4 1.6 2.5
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.8 107.7 107.2 113.0
0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1
111.1 118.5 117.0 120.3
1.6 3.0 -1.3 -1.5
102.1 107.3 94.9 119.9
3.1 1.6 2.7 1.3
101.2 102.9 108.0 106.6
-1.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.5 109.0 109.3 115.7
2.6 1.2 2.0 2.4
117.4 121.2 123.4 128.6
5.7 2.3 5.5 6.9
100.1 104.6 96.0 120.5
-2.0 -2.5 1.2 0.5
104.3 105.2 108.6 107.5
3.1 2.2 0.6 0.8
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.8 112.7 113.2 122.8
2.2 3.4 3.6 6.1
126.7 132.0 132.9 149.3
7.9 8.9 7.7 16.1
97.9 103.2 92.7 122.3
-2.2 -1.3 -3.4 1.5
105.1 107.7 112.9 110.7
0.8 2.4 4.0 3.0
2016 Ⅰp
113.7
4.5
133.8
5.6
100.4
2.6
110.2
4.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.5 99.4 109.7 106.1 112.5 108.4 110.6 107.7 109.7 111.7 114.7 120.6
5.6 -0.1 2.2 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 3.1 1.8 0.4 1.3 5.2
116.4 117.1 118.7 114.5 121.7 127.4 131.3 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.8 138.1
3.6 10.5 3.3 -0.7 1.6 5.9 2.9 1.9 12.6 -1.4 7.2 15.0
100.5 91.8 107.9 105.6 111.5 96.8 95.5 91.3 101.3 115.7 120.5 125.2
-2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -1.0 -2.0 -4.4 -2.6 5.4 1.2 1.6 -2.7 2.5
112.1 94.5 106.2 102.4 108.7 104.5 107.5 109.9 108.4 106.5 105.6 110.3
10.2 -4.8 3.6 2.1 3.0 1.5 1.8 2.9 -2.9 0.7 0.3 1.4
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.9 105.2 113.2 111.8 116.6 109.6 113.1 110.3 116.1 121.3 121.8 125.4
-2.4 5.8 3.2 5.4 3.6 1.1 2.3 2.4 5.8 8.6 6.2 4.0
128.2 117.3 134.6 129.2 130.3 136.4 140.2 129.2 129.4 143.2 146.8 158.0
10.1 0.2 13.4 12.8 7.1 7.1 6.8 9.0 7.4 20.4 14.0 14.4
97.6 91.5 104.6 107.1 114.3 88.3 92.0 88.1 98.0 122.2 124.5 120.3
-2.9 -0.3 -3.1 1.4 2.5 -8.8 -3.7 -3.5 -3.3 5.6 3.3 -3.9
102.9 105.5 106.9 105.7 111.1 106.3 109.7 111.2 117.8 110.6 109.0 112.4
-8.2 11.6 0.7 3.2 2.2 1.7 2.0 1.2 8.7 3.8 3.2 1.9
2016 1 2 3p 4p
112.9 108.6 119.7 116.5
4.6 3.2 5.7 4.2
125.3 125.0 151.1 139.4
-2.3 6.6 12.3 7.9
101.6 93.1 106.4 109.1
4.1 1.7 1.7 1.9
112.0 107.8 110.9 109.0
8.8 2.2 3.7 3.1
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
June 2016
57
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period 2013 2014 2015
102.2 102.0 104.4
-0.3 -0.2 2.4
103.4 102.7 106.0
0.6 -0.7 3.2
101.7 101.8 103.7
-0.7 0.1 1.9
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.0 98.7 102.4 104.7
2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2
108.3 100.9 102.6 101.8
10.7 1.8 0.1 -9.1
100.8 97.7 102.3 105.9
-1.2 -2.5 -1.5 2.4
-
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 100.8 102.5 104.0
-2.1 2.1 0.1 -0.7
103.5 103.0 100.8 103.3
-4.4 2.1 -1.8 1.5
99.7 99.9 103.2 104.4
-1.1 2.3 0.9 -1.4
-
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
101.4 100.5 105.4 110.1
0.6 -0.3 2.8 5.9
100.0 102.6 105.5 115.8
-3.4 -0.4 4.7 12.1
102.0 99.6 105.4 107.7
2.3 -0.3 2.1 3.2
-
2016 Ⅰp
104.5
3.1
101.8
1.8
105.7
3.6
-
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.5 96.5 103.4 101.8 99.9 100.7 105.0 100.2 102.3 105.2 101.0 105.9
-5.8 -0.4 0.1 2.3 0.2 3.9 1.5 -3.7 2.6 -3.3 -1.8 3.5
99.8 106.7 103.9 98.2 103.7 107.2 107.2 94.9 100.3 99.9 103.1 106.9
-9.5 0.3 -3.9 0.1 2.0 4.3 -1.7 -8.6 5.7 -4.3 0.0 9.3
103.6 92.2 103.2 103.4 98.3 98.0 104.0 102.4 103.1 107.5 100.1 105.5
-4.2 -0.8 1.9 3.4 -0.5 3.8 2.9 -1.7 1.4 -2.9 -2.6 1.2
109 108 108 108 104 107 105 106 107 105 103 101
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.5 94.1 105.5 105.1 98.0 98.5 103.2 103.1 109.9 112.9 106.8 110.6
2.0 -2.5 2.0 3.2 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 2.9 7.4 7.3 5.7 4.4
101.4 92.8 105.7 107.1 98.2 102.5 107.0 103.6 105.8 115.6 114.6 117.1
1.6 -13.0 1.7 9.1 -5.3 -4.4 -0.2 9.2 5.5 15.7 11.2 9.5
105.8 94.7 105.4 104.2 98.0 96.7 101.6 102.9 111.6 111.8 103.4 107.8
2.1 2.7 2.1 0.8 -0.3 -1.3 -2.3 0.5 8.2 4.0 3.3 2.2
102 103 101 104 105 98 100 101 103 105 105 102
2016 1 2 3p 4p 5
106.2 95.0 112.4 106.4 -
1.6 1.0 6.5 1.2 -
96.8 92.8 115.9 107.3 -
-4.5 0.0 9.6 0.2 -
110.3 95.9 110.9 106.0 -
4.3 1.3 5.2 1.7 -
100 98 100 101 99
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
Consumer sentiment index
Statistical Appendices
6. Machinery orders received and facility investment index Period 2013 2014 2015
Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Facility investment index (2010=100) y-o-y change (%)
23,078 26,487 25,545
6.6 14.8 -3.6
2,580 5,012 1,921
20.5 94.2 -61.7
20,497 21,475 23,624
5.1 4.8 10.0
99.8 105.0 111.6
-0.8 5.2 6.3
2013Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,587 5,865 5,144 6,481
-11.5 8.8 2.1 32.0
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,158 5,311 4,622 5,406
-6.2 4.0 3.7 21.7
91.7 101.1 99.3 107.0
-12.7 -3.5 3.2 11.0
2014Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,627 6,106 7,673 6,081
18.6 4.1 49.2 -6.2
1,221 305 2,708 778
184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6
5,406 5,801 4,965 5,303
4.8 9.2 7.4 -1.9
98.6 107.9 100.7 112.9
7.5 6.7 1.4 5.5
2015Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,430 7,017 5,596 6,502
-3.0 14.9 -27.1 6.9
405 493 399 624
-66.9 61.7 -85.3 -19.8
6,025 6,524 5,197 5,878
11.4 12.5 4.7 10.8
107.7 112.8 111.0 114.7
9.2 4.5 10.2 1.6
2016Ⅰp
6,490
0.9
635
56.9
5,855
-2.8
100.0
-7.1
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,753 1,844 3,030 2,274 1,831 2,001 1,772 4,083 1,818 1,936 2,308 1,837
-4.9 10.7 45.8 23.2 -13.9 5.7 -8.4 151.8 14.5 -25.7 10.2 3.0
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5
1,665 1,724 2,017 2,177 1,714 1,909 1,683 1,543 1,739 1,725 1,881 1,698
-2.3 15.2 3.1 24.2 -8.7 13.6 6.8 0.9 14.7 -5.0 -2.6 2.3
90.4 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.2 104.8 111.3 90.6 100.2 100.1 112.6 126.1
0.3 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.0 2.2 2.7 -9.9 12.8 -8.7 10.5 15.3
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,313 1,853 2,264 2,766 2,096 2,155 2,004 1,684 1,908 2,048 1,965 2,489
31.9 0.5 -25.3 21.6 14.5 7.7 13.1 -58.8 5.0 5.8 -14.9 35.5
116 141 148 127 197 169 133 160 106 98 228 298
32.0 17.6 -85.4 30.7 69.4 84.7 50.2 -93.7 34.8 -53.6 -46.7 113.6
2,197 1,712 2,116 2,640 1,899 1,986 1,870 1,524 1,802 1,950 1,737 2,191
31.9 -0.7 4.9 21.2 10.8 4.0 11.2 -1.2 3.6 13.1 -7.6 29.1
103.1 98.5 121.4 113.5 107.2 117.7 119.4 105.9 107.8 112.6 107.2 124.4
14.0 3.0 10.6 2.6 -0.9 12.3 7.3 16.9 7.6 12.5 -4.8 -1.3
2016 1 2 3p 4p p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
1,758 2,275 2,457 1,987
-24.0 22.7 8.5 -28.2
69 255 312 189
-40.7 80.7 110.8 49.3
1,689 2,020 2,146 1,797
-23.1 18.0 1.4 -31.4
96.9 90.7 112.4 110.4
-6.0 -7.9 -7.4 -2.7
June 2016
59
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received
(current value, billion won)
Period
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (%) (total)
Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction orders y-o-y received change (%) (total)
Type of order Public Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
98,089 98,491 99,967
10.6 0.4 1.5
34,459 32,015 30,694
1.9 -7.1 -4.1
59,714 62,413 65,114
18.0 4.5 4.3
77,885 90,606 134,338
-12.9 16.3 48.3
24,736 26,427 28,778
-5.1 6.8 8.9
50,947 62,115 102,449
-14.8 21.9 65.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,178 25,760 23,718 28,432
4.7 14.9 11.1 10.7
6,998 9,318 8,058 10,085
-6.0 4.8 6.0 2.1
12,415 15,455 14,739 17,106
14.0 24.2 16.3 17.1
13,826 18,694 16,833 28,532
-39.0 -27.4 -8.5 26.3
4,292 5,371 4,987 10,086
-24.1 -3.6 -7.7 6.8
9,180 12,636 11,442 17,688
-43.7 -33.8 -8.6 48.9
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,678 26,178 23,604 27,031
7.4 1.6 -0.5 -4.9
7,148 8,708 7,245 8,913
2.1 -6.5 -10.1 -11.6
13,677 16,513 15,359 16,864
10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.4
16,144 23,621 24,236 26,604
16.8 26.4 44.0 -6.8
5,924 6,563 5,181 8,758
38.0 22.2 3.9 -13.2
9,759 16,714 18,384 17,258
6.3 32.3 60.7 -2.4
2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,315 25,034 24,816 28,803
-1.7 -4.4 5.1 6.6
6,593 8,189 7,175 8,738
-7.8 -6.0 -1.0 -2.0
13,973 15,862 16,651 18,628
2.2 -3.9 8.4 10.5
25,417 35,210 36,440 37,270
57.4 49.1 50.4 40.1
4,594 9,069 4,900 10,215
-22.5 38.2 -5.4 16.6
20,537 25,623 30,814 25,525
110.4 53.3 67.6 47.9
Ⅰp 2016Ⅰ
24,140
13.3
6,705
1.7
16,164
15.7
29,052
14.3
7,836
70.6
20,508
-0.1
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,057 6,666 7,954 8,477 8,192 9,509 7,916 7,722 7,966 8,241 8,350 10,439
12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.1 -2.5
2,315 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,384 2,430 2,324 2,492 2,533 2,675 3,705
11.7 -5.9 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.3 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.2 -7.7
4,452 4,237 4,987 5,459 5,317 5,737 5,149 5,113 5,098 5,370 5,300 6,194
12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -5.9 1.1
5,546 5,632 4,966 7,501 6,820 9,301 7,033 8,789 8,414 8,000 6,399 12,205
55.9 19.3 -10.5 45.6 9.6 27.0 21.8 87.4 32.1 3.2 -20.8 -3.9
2,048 2,244 1,633 1,894 1,983 2,686 1,531 1,617 2,033 1,413 1,850 5,495
57.5 57.2 -4.6 21.0 26.8 19.9 2.5 9.7 0.6 -7.0 -30.5 -6.9
3,309 3,238 3,213 5,596 4,769 6,348 5,364 6,961 6,060 6,406 4,432 6,420
56.9 -1.6 -15.0 77.1 5.1 28.5 29.3 119.4 47.0 4.3 -14.8 1.3
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,824 6,690 7,801 7,709 7,767 9,558 7,895 7,939 8,982 8,503 8,709 11,590
-3.3 0.4 -1.9 -9.1 -5.2 0.5 -0.3 2.8 12.8 3.2 4.3 11.0
2,037 2,092 2,463 2,466 2,324 3,399 2,284 2,206 2,685 2,268 2,441 4,029
-12.0 -5.2 -6.2 -10.0 -10.1 0.5 -6.0 -5.1 7.8 -10.4 -8.7 8.7
4,570 4,379 5,024 4,939 5,131 5,792 5,350 5,437 5,864 5,865 5,877 6,886
2.6 3.4 0.7 -9.5 -3.5 1.0 3.9 6.3 15.0 9.2 10.9 11.2
7,515 5,435 12,467 9,055 12,639 13,516 8,685 8,659 19,097 10,378 13,226 13,666
35.5 -3.5 151.0 20.7 85.3 45.3 23.5 -1.5 127.0 29.7 106.7 12.0
1,318 1,135 2,140 2,585 2,458 4,026 1,791 1,921 1,188 1,803 3,296 5,115
-35.6 -49.4 31.3 36.5 24.0 49.9 17.0 18.8 -41.6 27.7 78.2 -6.9
6,084 4,218 10,235 6,414 10,078 9,131 6,817 6,433 17,564 8,574 9,369 7,582
83.9 30.3 218.6 14.6 111.3 43.8 27.1 -7.6 189.8 33.8 111.4 18.1
7,359 2016 1 7,273 2 9,508 3p 8,959 4p p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
7.8 8.7 21.9 16.2
2,042 1,970 2,694 2,374
0.2 -5.9 9.4 -3.7
5,003 4,948 6,212 6,130
9.5 13.0 23.7 24.1
7,225 10,014 11,812 10,683
-3.9 84.3 -5.3 18.0
2,691 2,347 2,798 1,314
104.1 106.8 30.7 -49.2
4,260 7,586 8,661 9,001
-30.0 79.8 -15.4 40.3
60
Statistical Appendices
8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Period
Leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2012 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.8 107.8 107.5 107.8 108.6 109.4
98.9 98.5 97.8 97.6 97.8 98.1
110.4 110.3 110.6 110.6 111.3 111.9
100.2 99.6 99.5 99.1 99.3 99.4
82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.7 110.1 110.6 111.2 111.9 112.9 113.7 114.2 114.3 115.1 116.0 117.0
98.0 97.9 97.9 98.0 98.2 98.6 98.8 98.9 98.5 98.7 99.0 99.5
112.3 112.7 112.8 113.4 113.9 114.7 115.1 115.6 115.8 116.4 116.9 117.5
99.4 99.4 99.1 99.2 99.3 99.6 99.6 99.7 99.5 99.6 99.7 99.9
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
117.6 117.9 117.9 118.4 118.6 119.3 119.8 121.0 122.2 122.9 123.4 124.4
99.5 99.3 98.9 98.8 98.7 98.7 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.0 99.9 100.3
118.3 118.6 119.2 119.4 119.7 120.1 120.7 121.3 121.5 121.5 121.8 122.8
100.1 100.1 100.2 100.0 99.8 99.8 99.9 100.1 99.8 99.5 99.3 99.8
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
126.2 127.4 128.8 129.3 130.4 130.5 131.0 132.0 133.3 134.3 134.8 135.0
101.2 101.6 102.1 102.1 102.3 101.9 101.8 102.0 102.5 102.8 102.6 102.2
123.3 124.1 124.4 124.9 124.9 125.2 125.8 126.8 128.0 128.8 129.1 129.6
99.8 100.1 99.9 100.0 99.6 99.5 99.6 100.0 100.6 100.9 100.7 100.7
94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 95.6 79.9 88.4 86.6 96.1 97.2 95.5 95.5
90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4 96.4 84.3 89.6 95.1 101.2 95.9 97.5
129.7 130.1 130.5 131.0 -
100.5 100.4 100.4 100.4 -
92.1 87.0 94.2 97.3 97.1 -
93.2 86.3 98.3 95.7 102.3 94.8
2016 1 135.4 102.0 2p 135.9 101.8 3p 136.7 102.0 4p 137.7 102.2 5 6 Sources: Statistics Korea, Federation of Korean Industries
June 2016
61
9. Balance of payments ( I) Period
Current account
Goods
2013 2014 2015p
81,148.2 84,373.0 105,870.7
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
535,375.9 524,135.2 428,547.8
-6,499.2 -3,678.5 -15,708.1
9,055.7 4,150.8 5,901.7
-4,189.3 -4,984.7 -4,612.9
147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9
133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9
-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7
1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2
-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4
17,595.3 25,175.7 20,977.4 25,137.0
151,471.8 158,004.3 150,820.7 152,723.8
133,876.5 132,828.6 129,843.3 127,586.8
-2,889.0 50.8 -459.6 -380.7
-736.9 556.0 1,398.7 2,933.0
-820.0 -1,674.6 -1,251.6 -1,238.5
22,439.2 27,917.6 29,108.1 26,405.8
24,216.7 33,679.8 30,637.7 31,755.8
134,439.1 142,258.7 135,363.0 136,777.0
110,222.4 108,578.9 104,725.3 105,021.2
-4,387.1 -3,092.6 -3,561.5 -4,666.9
3,830.8 -1,556.9 2,727.7 900.1
-1,221.2 -1,112.7 -695.8 -1,583.2
2016p Ⅰ
24,076.1
27,884.2
118,001.5
90,117.3
-4,172.6
1,249.3
-884.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,870.1 4,965.6 6,313.7 7,030.6 9,187.0 7,890.3 6,096.7 6,966.9 7,601.3 8,741.5 10,755.2 6,954.1
3,847.8 6,103.7 7,643.8 10,068.2 8,786.8 6,320.7 5,677.3 7,041.2 8,258.9 7,983.9 9,593.0 7,560.1
50,116.2 47,605.8 53,749.8 56,091.9 51,957.8 49,954.6 52,416.1 48,151.0 50,253.6 51,029.1 49,241.6 52,453.1
46,268.4 41,502.1 46,106.0 46,023.7 43,171.0 43,633.9 46,738.8 41,109.8 41,994.7 43,045.2 39,648.6 44,893.0
-1,727.0 -529.9 -632.1 -226.5 159.6 117.7 343.2 -391.6 -411.2 163.7 94.0 -638.4
84.9 -444.1 -377.7 -1,912.8 629.4 1,839.4 466.0 835.6 97.1 856.3 1,183.5 893.2
-335.6 -164.1 -320.3 -898.3 -388.8 -387.5 -389.8 -518.3 -343.5 -262.4 -115.3 -860.8
2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,257.1 6,081.1 10,101.0 7,729.8 8,315.5 11,872.3 9,714.8 8,546.9 10,846.4 9,120.4 9,910.3 7,375.1
6,310.3 7,020.8 10,885.6 12,090.2 8,792.6 12,797.0 9,924.9 8,805.4 11,907.4 10,605.2 10,466.1 10,684.5
45,022.1 40,294.9 49,122.1 49,908.3 43,471.9 48,878.5 47,259.6 42,991.3 45,112.1 47,298.7 43,360.4 46,117.9
38,711.8 33,274.1 38,236.5 37,818.1 34,679.3 36,081.5 37,334.7 34,185.9 33,204.7 36,693.5 32,894.3 35,433.4
-1,991.3 -1,758.8 -637.0 -804.0 -83.8 -2,204.8 -1,254.3 -1,013.0 -1,294.2 -1,701.7 -1,263.9 -1,701.3
2,558.1 1,037.8 234.9 -3,096.6 40.8 1,498.9 1,139.5 850.9 737.3 594.4 893.6 -587.9
-620.0 -218.7 -382.5 -459.8 -434.1 -218.8 -95.3 -96.4 -504.1 -377.5 -185.5 -1,020.2
6,820.9 7,169.7 10,085.5 3,371.7
7,899.7 7,539.0 12,445.5 9,559.3
37,227.8 36,231.7 44,542.0 40,313.0
29,328.1 28,692.7 32,096.5 30,753.7
-1,934.2 -1,242.1 -996.3 -1,617.9
1,253.4 852.1 -856.2 -4,066.2
-398.0 20.7 -507.5 -503.5
Exports
Imports
82,781.0 88,885.4 120,290.0
618,156.9 613,020.6 548,837.8
12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1
14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
13,149.4 24,107.9 20,664.9 26,450.8
2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2016p 1 2 3 4 p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
62
(US $ million)
Statistical Appendices
10. Balance of payments ( II)
(US $ million)
Period
Financial account*
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Reserve assets
Capital account
2013 2014 2015p
80,104.6 89,334.0 109,730.0
15,593.2 18,765.6 22,597.8
9,344.5 30,608.9 48,592.8
-4,410.3 -3,826.9 2,532.5
43,281.1 25,900.6 23,954.3
16,296.1 17,885.8 12,052.6
-27.0 -8.9 -64.7
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
11,448.7 19,645.6 22,675.5 26,334.8
3,878.4 3,397.8 3,426.8 4,890.2
7,285.9 9,776.5 -9,375.4 1,657.5
-1,395.8 513.6 -1,656.3 -1,871.8
-2,880.2 10,063.8 23,611.4 12,486.1
4,560.4 -4,106.1 6,669.0 9,172.8
-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
15,120.7 24,650.2 21,230.4 28,332.7
2,367.1 7,990.4 2,952.8 5,455.3
12,614.4 4,291.2 4,292.1 9,411.2
-1,004.6 -1,983.9 -1,649.7 811.3
-5,879.9 3,182.9 9,803.2 18,794.4
7,023.7 11,169.6 5,832.0 -6,139.5
-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.1
2015p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
23,800.1 28,671.4 29,615.2 27,643.3
4,386.2 7,467.6 4,920.9 5,823.1
7,838.4 6,994.1 15,096.2 18,664.1
-41.0 -461.4 4,040.7 -1,005.8
4,506.4 7,369.2 9,844.1 2,234.6
7,110.1 7,301.9 -4,286.7 1,927.3
-23.1 -25.5 -27.9 11.8
2016p Ⅰ
28,218.0
5,070.3
16,719.1
2,756.8
4,958.1
-1,286.3
-11.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,459.5 6,830.1 4,831.1 6,109.1 8,223.5 10,317.6 4,787.1 7,866.8 8,576.5 7,243.3 10,457.9 10,631.5
-1,420.3 1,601.5 2,185.9 2,369.9 3,512.1 2,108.4 492.8 524.3 1,935.7 2,769.7 1,998.3 687.3
4,393.6 6,429.0 1,791.8 -1,793.6 2,027.7 4,057.1 1,696.5 -705.2 3,300.8 339.4 2,686.3 6,385.5
-177.3 -264.6 -562.7 -890.2 -546.6 -547.1 -597.0 -621.0 -431.7 426.1 91.7 293.5
-2,243.2 -3,260.8 -375.9 5,757.2 -2,737.4 163.1 -132.9 7,841.8 2,094.3 3,955.6 8,579.1 6,259.7
2,906.7 2,325.0 1,792.0 665.8 5,967.7 4,536.1 3,327.7 826.9 1,677.4 -247.5 -2,897.5 -2,994.5
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 -4.2
2015p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,898.1 5,175.2 10,726.8 9,802.8 8,558.1 10,310.5 10,018.0 9,052.5 10,544.7 11,086.1 8,697.0 7,860.2
659.2 1,631.0 2,096.0 1,712.2 949.9 4,805.5 -15.1 328.1 4,607.9 3,501.4 903.0 1,418.7
3,623.7 3,001.5 1,213.2 138.0 358.3 6,497.8 8,277.2 2,537.4 4,281.6 7,098.9 5,128.8 6,436.4
76.2 -27.5 -89.7 -301.9 -403.7 244.2 936.4 1,618.6 1,485.7 -812.0 -609.9 416.1
-489.1 371.2 4,624.3 4,851.0 4,755.5 -2,237.3 1,792.3 8,450.1 -398.3 -931.9 1,662.4 1,504.1
4,028.1 199.0 2,883.0 3,403.5 2,898.1 1,000.3 -972.8 -3,881.7 567.8 2,229.7 1,612.7 -1,915.1
-13.0 -1.7 -8.4 -8.5 -1.5 -15.5 -29.9 1.1 0.9 -5.4 17.0 0.2
2016p 1 6,478.9 -71.5 4,650.7 1,214.5 302.9 2 9,503.0 1,554.4 6,199.9 756.6 2,557.8 3 12,236.1 3,587.4 5,868.5 785.7 2,097.4 4 167.1 -143.4 3,360.8 -1,033.1 -3,333.8 * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
382.3 -1,565.7 -102.9 1,316.6
-6.1 -2.3 -3.2 -5.0
June 2016
63
11. Prices Period
(2010=100)
All items y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices All items Commodities
Core
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2013 2014 2015
107.7 109.0 109.8
1.3 1.3 0.7
110.1 111.1 110.3
1.0 0.9 -0.7
105.8 107.4 109.4
1.5 1.6 1.8
106.6 108.8 111.1
1.6 2.0 2.2
105.7 105.2 101.0
-1.6 -0.5 -4.0
106.2 104.8 98.0
-2.5 -1.4 -6.4
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 105.9 106.3 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.7
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.4 109.4 109.4 109.5 109.8 109.8 110.0 110.2 110.0 110.1 109.9 110.2
0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3
110.9 110.6 110.3 110.1 110.6 110.7 110.3 110.5 110.2 109.9 109.7 110.1
-0.1 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.0
108.2 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.2 109.2 109.8 110.0 109.9 110.1 110.1 110.3
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
110.3 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.1 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.4 111.6 111.7 111.9
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.7 99.3 99.0
-3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0
99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.0 95.3 95.0
-5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.4 -7.6 -6.6
2016 1 2 3 4 5
110.3 110.8 110.5 110.6 110.7
0.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8
109.7 110.5 109.6 109.6 109.5
-1.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1
110.8 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.6
2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2
112.2 112.5 112.5 112.7 112.9
1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6
98.5 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.7
-3.3 -3.4 -3.3 -3.0 -3.1
94.0 93.9 93.8 94.1 94.1
-5.7 -5.9 -5.7 -5.2 -5.2
Source: Bank of Korea
64
Consumer prices Commodities Services
Statistical Appendices
12. Employment Period
Economically active persons (thousands)
y-o-y change (%)
Employed persons (thousands) All industry Manufacturing y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)
SOC & services Unemployment rate (%) y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015
25,501 25,873 26,536 26,913
1.6 1.5 2.6 1.4
24,681 25,066 25,599 25,936
1.8 1.6 2.1 1.3
4,105 4,184 4,330 4,486
0.3 1.9 3.5 3.6
19,033 19,347 19,805 20,029
2.4 1.6 2.4 1.5
3.2 3.1 3.5 3.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954 27,211 27,255 27,303 27,064 27,129 27,137 27,082 26,747
1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.8
25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900 26,189 26,205 26,305 26,141 26,264 26,298 26,253 25,879
1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.0
4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455 4,464 4,478 4,528 4,491 4,512 4,552 4,545 4,552
3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.4 3.3
19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004 20,179 20,161 20,250 20,153 20,249 20,248 20,353 20,266
1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.9
3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2
2016 1 2 3 4 5
26,433 26,734 26,955 27,228 27,455
1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9
25,445 25,418 25,800 26,153 26,450
1.4 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0
4,566 4,541 4,525 4,503 4,514
3.3 2.4 2.8 1.1 1.1
19,955 19,885 20,028 20,263 20,483
1.3 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5
3.7 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.7
Source: Statistics Korea
June 2016
65
13. Financial indicators Call rate (1 day)
CDs (91 days)
2012 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9
1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81 2,029.47 1,991.97 1,961.31
2016 1 2 3 4 5
1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
1,912.06 1,916.66 1,995.85 1,994.15 1,983.40
Period
Source: Bank of Korea
66
(period average)
Yields (%) Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Statistical Appendices
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Stock KOSPI (endperiod)
14. Monetary indicators Reserve money
Period 2012 2013 2014 2015
(period average, billion won)
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2
y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
82,131.1 91,379.4 103,331.5 120,691.4
9.2 11.3 13.1 16.8
441,963.6 484,062.9 536,733.4 636,639.0
3.8 9.5 10.9 18.6
1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3 2,182,911.9
5.2 4.8 6.6 8.6
2,379,518.7 2,543,232.5 2,721,502.2 2,986,699.4
7.8 6.9 7.0 9.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5
5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7
464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9
5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3
1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4
4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3
2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,866.7 2,619,029.5
7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4 105,354.1 107,117.5 106,667.9 110,175.6
14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9 10.7 14.4 13.9 13.6
515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3 548,550.8 551,416.0 562,006.2 577,721.1
10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.4
1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2 2,037,600.8 2,051,149.8 2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8
5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6 7.1 7.5 8.3 8.1
2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,443.2 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5 2,759,390.8 2,776,968.0 2,817,698.0 2,834,968.4
6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3 7.1 7.3 8.1 8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4 126,572.2 125,616.2 126,767.1 128,117.5
15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2 20.1 17.3 18.8 16.3
579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9 665,691.1 669,737.7 677,629.2 690,772.4
12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 20.6 19.6
2,092,223.5 2,109,892.3 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,179,561.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3 2,230,000.7 2,232,432.0 2,242,848.2 2,246,070.1
8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5
2,857,610.1 2,876,467.8 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,316.5 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1 3,049,823.2 3,059,051.9 3,076,029.2 3,086,887.8
8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.2 8.9
2016 1 2 3 4
131,279.3 134,913.0 132,957.9 135,038.9
15.9 15.8 14.6 17.3
699,767.3 708,014.0 713,861.2 720,818.5
20.7 19.4 18.8 18.0
2,261,356.4 2,285,313.5 2,294,544.7 2,299,081.3
8.1 8.3 7.8 7.0
3,110,535.8 3,133,492.2 3,158,687.8 3,170,277.9
8.9 8.9 8.6 8.0
Source: Bank of Korea
June 2016
67
15. Exchange rates Period
100/ \
Euro/ \
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014 2015
1,071.1 1,055.3 1,099.2 1,172.0
-7.1 -1.5 4.2 6.6
1,247.5 1,004.7 920.1 972.0
-16.0 -19.5 -8.4 5.6
1,416.3 1,456.3 1,336.5 1,280.5
-5.2 2.8 -8.2 -4.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0
1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6
921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 944.1 936.7 972.0
-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6
1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5
-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2
2016 1 2 3 4 5
1,208.4 1,235.4 1,153.5 1,143.9 1,190.6
10.8 12.4 4.4 7.1 7.5
1,017.1 1,085.8 1,026.0 1,058.2 1,072.8
10.4 17.9 11.5 17.9 19.9
1,322.2 1,348.3 1,307.4 1,298.4 1,326.8
7.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.2
Source: Bank of Korea
68
(end-period)
US $/ \
Statistical Appendices
Jultagi Tightrope walking in most countries is a form of art that focuses solely on acrobatic skills. The traditional Korean form of tightrope walking, or jultagi, is unique in that it is accompanied by music and comedy. A jultagi performance is composed of a rope player, a clown and a group of musicians. The rope player carries out acrobatic moves while singing and exchanging banter with the clown, who performs on the ground with the musicians.
Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance_http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy_http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission_http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service_http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission_http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor_http://www.moel.go.kr/english Bank of Korea_http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea_http://kostat.go.kr/portal/eng
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
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