201803 by KOCIS

Republic of Korea

Economic Bulletin

Vol.40 No.3 MARCH 2018 eb.kdi.re.kr ISSN 2287-7266

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Measures to Increase Young Adult Jobs

Economic News Briefing Korean FDI Reaches Record High in 2017 DPM Had Bilateral Talks at G20 Financial Ministersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Meeting Consolidated Fiscal Account Posts a 16.2 Trillion Won Surplus in 2017 OECD Predicts 3.0% Growth for Korea in 2018

Statistical Appendices

Royal throne The red-lacquered bench above, decorated with carved dragons, is a royal throne in the Joseon Dynasty. Dragons are the symbol of the king, and the thrones were placed at the center of the royal council hall as well as in the kingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s living quarters.

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview

01. External economic situation

02. Private consumption

03. Facility investment

04. Construction investment

05. Exports and imports

06. Mining and manufacturing production

07. Service sector activity

08. Employment

09. Financial markets

9.1 Stock market

9.2 Exchange rate

9.3 Bond market

9.4 Money supply and money market

10. Balance of payments

11. Prices

11.1 Consumer prices

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

12. Real estate market

12.1 Housing market

12.2 Land market

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

Contents

Policy Issue Measures to increase young adult jobs

Economic News Briefing Korean FDI reaches record high in 2017 Deputy Prime Minister Kim had bilateral talks at G20 Finance Ministersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Meeting held in Argentina Consolidated fiscal account posts a 16.2 trillion won surplus in 2017 OECD predicts 3.0% growth for Korea in 2018

53 Statistical Appendices

Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) Lee Kye-Moon (MOSF) Editorial Board Son Hye-Min (MOSF) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Yu Seong-Im (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Kwon Bum-Joon (MOSF) Shin Dong-Gyun (MOSF)

The Green Book:

Current Economic Trends

Overview 01. External economic situation 02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. C omposite indices of business cycle indicators

March 2018

Overview

The Korean economy continues to recover as exports have been strong and subsequently investment is on the rise. Production and consumption rebounded due to a low base effect. The economy added 334,000 jobs year-on-year in January, creating more than 300,000 jobs for the first time in four months, as manufacturing and construction continued to be strong. The young adult unemployment rate rose somewhat (8.6% → 8.7%, up 0.1%p, y-o-y). Consumer price inflation in February rose 0.4 percentage points from the previous month (up 1.0% → up 1.4%, y-o-y) as agricultural product prices rose due to a cold snap. Industrial production rebounded in January (down 0.5% → up 1.2%, m-o-m). Mining and manufacturing production rose (down 1.7% → up 1.0%, m-o-m) due to strong automobiles and semiconductors. Service output improved (down 0.2% → up 0.8%, m-o-m) backed by strong professional, scientific & technical services and transportation & storage services. Retail sales picked up in January (down 2.6% → up 1.7%, m-o-m) due to strong sales of air-purifying home electronics amid rising fine dust concerns as well as due to a low base effect from the previous month when automobile sales dropped. Facility investment increased for the third consecutive month in January (up 6.0% → up 6.2%, m-o-m) as imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment continued to rise. Construction completed rose for the second consecutive month (up 1.7% → up 8.2%, m-o-m) led by new housing construction. In January, the cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.1 points from the previous month to 99.9, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points to 100.8. Exports in February, despite fewer days worked (down 2.5 days) due to Lunar New Year’s day holidays, continued to increase for the 16th consecutive month (up 22.3% → up 4.0%, y-o-y) backed by strong major export items, such as semiconductors, amid recovering global economies. In February, KOSPI fell as volatility increased in the global market amid Fed’s rate hike concerns. The dollar-won exchange rate rose due to the strong dollar. Government bond yields fluctuated. Housing prices continued to rise in February (up 0.14% → up 0.20%, m-o-m) due to housing prices getting higher in the Seoul metropolitan area, and Jeonse (lump sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to fall (down 0.05% → down 0.09%, m-o-m) due to increased supplies as well as low seasonal demand.

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

The economy is expected to stay on a recovery path given improving global economies and strong exports. However, young adult unemployment has been rising, and external risks linger, such as trade issues and Fed’s interest rate hikes. The government will strengthen its risk management, and will work to successfully implement the 2018 economic policies, focusing on helping the job market and the real economy improve.

1. External economic situation The global economy has been improving as recovery continues in both developed and emerging countries. However, there are risks arising from the spread of protectionism and monetary policy normalization in advanced economies.

US The US economy grew 2.5 percent (annualized q-o-q) in the fourth quarter of 2017 backed by an improvement in private consumption and investment. However, industrial production and retail sales slowed down in January. Industrial production in January slipped 0.1 percent month-on-month, falling below the market expectations of 0.3 percent growth, as manufacturing production slowed down. The ISM Manufacturing Index edged up in February. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50)

56.5 (Jul 2017) → 59.3 (Aug) → 60.2 (Sep) → 58.5 (Oct) → 58.2 (Nov) → 59.3 (Dec) → 59.1 (Jan 2018) → 60.8 (Feb)

Retail sales in January declined 0.3 percent month-on-month, contrary to the market expectations of 0.3 percent growth, due to a drop in automobile sales. Consumer confidence rose for the second straight month in February 4. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)

120.0 (Jul 2017) → 120.4 (Aug) → 120.6 (Sep) → 126.2 (Oct) → 128.6 (Nov) → 123.1 (Dec) → 124.3 (Jan 2018) → 130.8 (Feb)

Existing home sales dropped 3.2 percent month-on-month in January to an annual rate of 5,380,000 homes. New home sales fell 7.8 percent to an annual rate of 590,000 units. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %)

5.8 (Jul 2017) → 5.8 (Aug) → 6.1 (Sep) → 6.3 (Oct) → 6.4 (Nov) → 6.3 (Dec)

New home sales (m-o-m, %)

-10.0 (Jul 2017) → -0.9 (Aug) → 14.3 (Sep) → -3.6 (Oct) → 13.0 (Nov) → -7.6 (Dec) → -7.8 (Jan 2018)

March 2018

US GDP growth and industrial production (%)

6 4 2 0 -2 -4

GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)

-6 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q)

Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board

In January, nonfarm payrolls added 200,000 new jobs, exceeding the market expectations of 177,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, the lowest level since December 2000. Labor force participation rate (%)

62.9 (Apr 2017) → 62.7 (May) → 62.8 (Jun) → 62.9 (Jul) → 62.9 (Aug) → 63.0 (Sep) → 62.7 (Oct) → 62.7 (Nov) → 62.7 (Dec) → 62.7 (Jan 2018)

Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands)

155 (May 2017) → 239 (Jun) → 190 (Jul) → 221 (Aug) → 14 (Sep) → 271 (Oct) → 216 (Nov) → 160 (Dec) → 200 (Jan 2018)

US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate (thousands)

(%)

600 400

200 8

-200 -400

-600 2

-800

US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left) Unemployment rate (right)

-1,000 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Source: US Department of Labor

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

0 2018.1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014 2015

2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

Real GDP

2.6

2.9

- Personal consumption expenditures

2.9

- Nonresidential fixed investment

6.9

2018 Q4 Nov Dec Jan

1.5

1.8

2.5

1.2

3.1

3.2 2.5

3.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

1.9

3.3

2.2 3.8

2.3

-0.6

0.2

4.7

7.2

6.7

4.7 6.6

- Residential fixed investment

3.5 10.2

5.5

7.1

1.7 11.1 -7.3 -4.7 13.0

Industrial production

3.1

-0.7

-1.2

0.2

2.0

0.4

2.0

0.3 0.4 -0.1

Retail sales

4.2

2.6

3.0

1.5

4.6

0.1 -0.1

2.0

2.7

0.8 0.0 -0.3

Existing home sales

-3.1

6.3

3.9

3.1

2.0

1.3 -1.0 -2.6

3.5

4.0 -2.8 -3.2

Unemployment rate

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.7

4.4

4.7

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.1 4.1

4.1

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

1.6

0.1

1.3

1.8

2.1

2.6

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2 2.1

2.1

1.4 -0.2

1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg

China China’s economy has been growing steadily as exports continue to be strong due to increased demand from major economies. At the National People’s Congress held on March 5, the Chinese government set the growth target of around 6.5 percent for 2018 and announced nine tasks, including supply-side reform.

China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment (%)

(%)

GDP (y-o-y, left) Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)

4 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

March 2018

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2015

2016

Annual Annual

2017

Q4 Annual Q1

2018 Q4

Nov

Dec

Jan

Real GDP

6.9

6.7

6.8

6.9

6.8

Industrial production

6.0

6.2

6.1

6.5

6.8

6.9

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.2

Fixed asset investment 10.0 (accumulated)

8.1

7.2

9.2

8.6

7.5

7.2

Retail sales

10.6

10.4

10.6

10.2

10.0

10.8

10.3

9.9

10.2

9.4

Exports

-3.0

-7.7

-5.3

7.9

7.2

8.2

6.4

9.7

11.5

10.9

11.1

Consumer prices

1.4

2.0

2.2

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.5

Producer prices

-5.2

-1.3

3.3

6.3

7.4

5.8

6.2

5.9

5.8

4.9

4.3

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

Japan Japan’s economy grew 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2017. Industrial production and retail sales fell in January, but exports increased at a faster pace. Japan’s real GDP has expanded for eight consecutive quarters for the first time in 28 years. Core consumer prices (excluding fresh food, y-o-y, %)

0.5 (Jul 2017) → 0.7 (Aug) → 0.7 (Sep) → 0.8 (Oct) → 0.9 (Nov) → 0.9 (Dec) → 0.9 (Jan 2018)

Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production

GDP (q-o-q, left) Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

(%)

-1

-5

-2

-10

-3

-15

-4

-20

-5

-25 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014 2015

2016

Annual Annual Annual Q3

2017 Q4 Annual Q1

Nov

Dec

Jan

0.2

0.4

1.7

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.2

2.1

0.4

1.8

0.5

2.9

-6.6

0.7 -0.1

1.4

1.8

0.9

-1.8

Real GDP

0.4

Industrial production

2.1 -1.2 -0.2

1.6

1.9

4.7

Retail sales

3.9

0.5 -2.9

-0.3

1.5

1.1 -0.2

Exports (y-o-y)

4.8

3.8

Consumer prices (y-o-y) 2.7

1.4

0.9

-7.4 -10.2

0.8 -0.1

2018

-0.5

-1.8 11.8

8.2 10.7 15.1 13.0 16.2

9.3 12.3

0.3

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.6

1.4

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Eurozone The eurozone economy grew 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter (preliminary) in the fourth quarter of 2017 backed by improving employment. Retail sales slowed down. Manufacturing PMI

56.7 (Apr 2017) → 57.0 (May) → 57.4 (Jun) → 56.6 (Jul) → 57.4 (Aug) → 58.1 (Sep) → 58.5 (Oct) → 60.1 (Nov) → 60.6 (Dec) → 59.6 (Jan 2018) → 58.6 (Feb)

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (base 2010=100)

108.7 (May 2017) → 110.6 (Jun) → 110.7 (Jul) → 111.4 (Aug) → 112.5 (Sep) → 113.5 (Oct) → 114.0 (Nov) → 115.3 (Dec) → 114.9 (Jan 2018) → 114.1 (Feb)

Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production (%)

(%)

4 1 2 0

0 -2

-1

-4 -6

-2

-8 -3 -10

GDP (q-o-q, left) Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

-12

-4 2009.Q1

Source: Eurostat

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

March 2018

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014 2015

2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

2018

Nov

Dec

Jan

Real GDP

1.3

2.1

1.9

0.6

2.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

Industrial production

0.8

2.1

1.5

1.0

2.9

0.1

1.3

1.5

1.3

0.4

Retail sales

1.5

2.7

1.5

1.2

2.5

0.3

0.9

0.6

0.3

2.0

-1.1

Exports (y-o-y)

2.3

5.3

0.3

2.3

7.1 10.9

5.4

6.0

6.2

8.5

1.0

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.7

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.8

Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg

2. Private consumption Private consumption (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2017 rose 1.0 percent compared to the previous quarter and 3.4 percent compared to a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)

2015 Annual Q3

2016 1

2017 1

Q4 Annual Q1

Q21

Q31

Q41

Private consumptionÂ˛

2.2

1.3

1.5

2.5 -0.1

0.8

0.6

0.2

2.6

0.4

1.0

0.8

1.0

(y-o-y)

2.2

3.4

3.5

2.7

1.5

2.0

2.3

2.5

3.4

2.3

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

Private consumption (%) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4

Private consumption (y-o-y) Private consumption (q-o-q)

-6 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

Retail sales in January increased 1.7 percent month-on-month. Sales of semidurable goods (down 4.3%) fell, but sales of durable goods (up 6.1%) and nondurable goods (up 2.2%) picked up. Year-on-year, the index rose 1.4 percent.

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

(Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2016

2017

Annual Annual Q3

Q4 Annual1 Q1

2018

Q41

Oct Nov1 Dec1 Jan1

Retail sales

4.1

3.9 -1.6

1.4

1.9

0.4

1.0

0.2

0.9 -3.2

4.8 -2.6

(y-o-y)

3.1

2.2

1.6

1.0

3.2

2.1 -0.2

6.5

2.2

1.4

10.1

4.6 -8.3

6.5

5.4

1.0

5.2 -3.0

1.4 -3.3

8.6 -6.4

6.1

21.1

2.8 -21.2 16.5

0.9 -0.5

3.5 -6.9

1.4 -4.0 14.2 -12.3 13.3

-1.2

2.3 -0.9 -0.1

-1.1 -1.3 -0.5

1.1

1.4 -2.8

6.8 -4.2 -4.3

3.2

4.2

1.7

1.4

0.5 -3.3

2.0

- Durable goods2 Âˇ Automobiles - Semi-durable goods - Nondurable goods4

1.4

0.5

0.8 -0.5

1.7

0.0

2.2

1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea

Retail sales (%)

-5

Retail sales (y-o-y)

-10 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Retail sales (m-o-m)

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

With regard to the private consumption outlook for February, domestic sales of cars declined, but sales increased at both department stores and large discount stores. 2017 Jul

Aug

Sep 8.3

2018

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

-0.8

6.6

4.1

0.2

4.2

Credit card use (y-o-y, %)

4.2

0.3

Department store sales (y-o-y, %)

0.1

-1.0

5.0

-0.2

6.3

5.9

-7.9

8.5

Large discount store sales (y-o-y, %)

1.0

-1.6

-1.1

1.7

5.9

1.0

-8.7

13.5

Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %)

13.7

-6.1

9.5

3.4

2.9

-2.0

9.2

1.4

9.8

11.7

15.8

-13.5

-4.0

-19.4

8.6

-11.2

110.9

109.6

107.4

108.9

112.0

110.6

109.9

108.2

Number of Chinese tourists (y-o-y, %) -69.3

-61.2

-56.1

-49.3

-42.1

-37.9

-46.0 -41.21

Domestic sales of cars (y-o-y, %) Consumer sentiment index

1. â&#x20AC;&#x152; Advanced estimates based on all Chinese entries, which can be different from the statistic released by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism as it excludes diplomatic and military personnel Sources: Bank of Korea, Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries

March 2018

3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2017 fell 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and rose 10.0 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2016 1

Annual Annual

Facility investment2

2017 1

Annual

Q21

Q31

Q41

4.4

5.2

0.7

-0.6

4.7

-2.3

-7.0

2.6

0.9

5.9

14.6

-4.6

-2.9

-3.9

2.0

- Machinery

2.9

-2.4

-7.2

2.8

6.8

7.5

6.4

3.7

4.7

- Transportation equipment

8.7

-2.0

-6.8

2.2 -10.2

2.5

-0.5

8.7

-9.0

(y-o-y)

14.4 17.3 17.0 10.0

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

Facility investment (%) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

Facility investment (y-o-y)

-30 2009.Q1

Facility investment (q-o-q)

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

Facility investment by type (y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

Machinery Transportation equipment

-30 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

The facility investment index in January rose 6.2 percent month-on-month as both machinery and transportation equipment investment increased. The index increased 22.5 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)

2015 2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual1

2018

Q41

Nov1

Dec1

Jan1

Facility investment index

6.9

-1.3

14.1

6.0

3.1

0.2

-1.7

2.5

6.0

6.2

(y-o-y)

18.2

17.8

20.6

2.0

6.7

2.5

22.5

- Machinery

3.6

-2.2

22.4

6.6

7.9

-0.1

-2.0

5.2

6.0

15.0

0.9

-4.4

5.1

-8.7

0.4

-0.8

-3.8

4.2

6.9

- Transportation equipment

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

The facility investment outlook is mixed: Machinery imports and domestic machinery orders received increased in January, but the capacity utilization rate has yet to pick up. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2015 2016

2017 1

Annual Annual Annual

Domestic machinery orders received

-3.9

4.7

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-Public

-61.7

Jan1

Dec

19.2

21.1

23.7

31.3

4.4

25.5 -23.5

-8.6

11.4

1.4

0.5

17.9

14.3

-9.4 -13.8

8.4

-5.8

-0.9 -54.0 -11.0 -75.0 107.4

24.2

22.5

26.3

34.1

15.3

28.1

-2.8

8.6

0.3

-2.5

18.8

24.2

20.5

22.7

9.1

12.3

15.5

28.7

74.4

72.9

72.6

73.5

72.0

73.0

71.7

70.2

70.4

-1.2

-0.4

0.5

2.6

0.2

3.9

-4.8

-1.1

-4.5

4.1

Machinery imports Facility investment pressure

Nov

1.1

9.6

49.0 -21.8

-Private Capacity utilization rate

2018 1

1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

Leading indicators of facility investment (trillion won)

(y-o-y, %)

10 9

8 7

6 0

5 4

-20

Machinery orders (left)

-40

2 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Machinery imports (right)

Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports)

March 2018

4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2017 fell 3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and rose 4.4 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)

2015

2016

Annual Annual1 Q11

Construction investment2

6.6

(y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works 1. Preliminary

10.7

2017

Q21

Q31

3.1

2.2

7.6

Q41 Annual1 Q11 -1.2

7.5

6.8

Q21

Q31

Q41

0.3

1.5

-3.8

9.0 10.6 11.2 11.6

11.3

8.0

7.6

4.4

10.0

17.3

6.0

4.9

4.1

1.7

4.9

2.4

2.8

0.3

-2.8

11.3

-1.1

-2.3

-8.5

12.2

-5.4

-2.1

2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

Construction investment (%)

-5

Construction investment (y-o-y)

-10 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Construction investment (q-o-q)

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

Construction investment by type (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10

Building construction Residential buildings Civil engineering works

-20 -30 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

The value of construction completed (constant) in January rose 8.2 percent month-on-month as both building construction and civil engineering works increased. The index increased 15.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)

2015 2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual1

Construction completed (constant)

2018 Q41

Nov1 Dec1

Jan1

5.0

15.4

10.1

4.3

-0.2

-0.3

0.0

-2.4

1.7

8.2

17.7

13.6

12.7

-0.4

0.6

-0.1

15.6

- Building construction

7.3

25.7

18.3

5.8

2.2

1.8

-0.8

-0.3

0.3

8.8

- Civil engineering works

1.2

-2.6

-8.4

0.6

-6.5

-6.2

2.4

-8.6

6.1

6.3

(y-o-y)

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

With regard to outlook, construction orders received and building permits increased, but apartment presales fell. Apartment presales (thousands, monthly average, Real Estate 114)

57 (Q4 2016) → 19 (Q1 2017) → 27 (Q2) → 30 (Q3) → 33 (Q4) → 17 (Jan 2018) → 8 (Feb) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2015 2016

2017 1

Annual Annual Annual

Construction orders received (current value)

48.4

(q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction

50.5

- Civil engineering works Building permits2

8.1

2018 Q4

Nov

Jan1

Dec

-3.2

1.2

-5.4

8.5 -10.6

14.4

-6.6

-7.7

8.4

42.6 -10.5

9.6

29.7

63.3 -17.3 -13.2

21.3

-2.9 259.1

34.3

-4.0

-5.0

-7.8

-4.5

4.2

-5.7

17.9 -10.2 -15.1 -11.8

-1.3

6.7

-8.3 -15.6 -17.8 -0.3

-2.4

4.8

30.8

24.2

10.8

7.4 -20.9 3.5

1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Leading indicators of construction investment (y-o-y, %) 200

150

100

-50

Construction orders Building permit area

-100 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area

March 2018

5. Exports and imports Exports (preliminary) increased 4.0 percent year-on-year to US $44.88 billion in February. Exports rose for the 16th month in a row, backed by strong major export items such as semiconductors, despite fewer days worked (down 2.5 days, y-o-y). By item, semiconductors, vessels, computers and petroleum products rose, while mobile phones dropped. By region, shipments to Japan, the EU, the ASEAN countries and China increased. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)

40.8 (semiconductors), 40.3 (vessels), 29.5 (computers), 15.8 (petroleum products), 6.3 (petrochemicals), -9.7 (steel), -14.4 (automobiles), -32.2 (mobile phones)

Export growth by region (y-o-y, %)

21.6 (Japan), 17.8 (EU), 4.9 (ASEAN countries), 3.7 (China), -4.9 (Latin America), -9.6 (Middle East), -10.7 (US)

Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, increased month-onmonth to US $2.30 billion. Average daily exports (US $ billion)

1.96 (Feb 2017) → 2.23 (Jun) → 2.08 (Jul) → 1.96 (Aug) → 2.35 (Sep) → 2.49 (Oct) → 2.07 (Nov) → 2.18 (Dec) → 2.05 (Jan 2018) → 2.30 (Feb)

Exports by item (y-o-y, %)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Export growth rate Semiconductors

-20 -40 -60

Automobiles Steel

-80 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) (US $ billion)

2015 2016 Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports

2017

2018 Feb

Dec

Jan

Feb1

143.54

43.17

49.04

49.22

44.88

Annual Annual Annual

526.76 495.43 573.69

132.06

147.04

150.51

-8.0

-5.9

15.8

14.7

16.7

24.0

8.4

20.2

8.8

22.3

4.0

1.93

1.81

2.13

1.96

2.21

2.13

2.23

1.96

2.18

2.05

2.30

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Imports (preliminary) in February rose 14.8 percent year-on-year to US $41.57 billion. Imports grew at a slower rate in all three categories. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, Jan → Feb)

19.9 → 16.3 (commodities), 21.6 → 11.2 (capital goods), 23.9 → 18.0 (consumer goods)

Imports by category (y-o-y, %)

100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40

Import growth rate Commodities

-60 -80 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Capital goods

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

(US $ billion)

Imports

2015

2016

Annual

2017 Annual

2018 Q4

436.50 406.19 478.41 116.43 117.80 120.85 123.40

Feb

Dec

Jan

Feb1

36.20

43.53

45.59

41.57

(y-o-y, %)

-16.9

-6.9

17.8

24.1

18.6

18.0

11.6

24.1

13.6

21.1

14.8

Average daily imports

1.60

1.49

1.78

1.72

1.77

1.70

1.91

1.65

1.93

1.90

2.13

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $3.31 billion in February, staying in the black for the 73rd consecutive month. Surpluses decreased compared with the previous month. (US $ billion)

2015

2016

Annual

Trade balance 90.26

89.23

95.22

15.63

29.25

30.20

20.14

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

2017

2018 Feb 6.96

Dec 5.51

Jan 3.63

Feb1 3.31

March 2018

Exports and imports (US $ billion)

60 50 40 30 20 10

Exports Imports Trade balance

0 -10 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 1.0 percent month-on-month in January: Automobiles and semiconductors increased, and radio and television broadcasting and communications equipment declined. The index increased 4.6 percent year-on-year. Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (up 12.1%), semiconductors (up 5.7%) and mechanical equipment (up 4.1%) rose, while radio and television broadcasting and communications equipment (down 27.6%), electrical equipment (down 3.2%) and other transportation equipment (down 1.1%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of electronic parts (up 25.7%), mechanical equipment (up 16.4%) and chemical products (up 8.3%) rose, while semiconductors (down 10.3%), other transportation equipment (down 6.7%) and radio and television broadcasting and communications equipment (down 8.1%) declined. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 109.5 percent as inventories increased 0.9 percent and shipments rose 1.1 percent. Inventories of semiconductors (up 21.7%), chemical products (up 3.2%) and automobiles (up 2.2%) rose, while electronic parts (down 11.3%), mechanical equipment (down 5.8%) and radio and television broadcasting and communications equipment (down 13.1%) declined. Shipments of semiconductors (up 24.2%), automobiles (up 9.6%) and primary metals (up 5.8%) rose, while radio and television broadcasting and communications equipment (down 38.2%), chemical products (down 1.2%) and clothing and fur (down 8.1%) fell. The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing sector improved 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 70.4 percent.

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Industrial production (%)

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

Industrial production (y-o-y)

-30 2009.1

Industrial production (m-o-m)

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

Shipment and inventory (m-o-m, %) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4

Shipment growth

-6 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Inventory growth

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

Capacity utilization rate (%) 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

March 2018

(Percentage change from previous period)

2016

2017

Annual Annual1 Q3

(q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and manufacturingÂ˛ (y-o-y)

Manufacturing

0.8

2.3

2018

Q41

Jan

Nov Dec1 Jan1

-0.9

2.7

-1.2

-1.7

1.0

1.9

4.6

-3.8

1.5

-1.1

-4.6

4.6

Production (q-o-q, m-o-m) (y-o-y)

0.6

-1.0

2.8

-1.5

-2.2

1.6

2.4

1.6

4.6

-4.7

1.8

-1.9

-6.0

4.3

Shipment

1.1

0.7

0.9

-0.9

-0.4

0.0

-3.5

1.1

-Domestic consumption

1.9

1.4

0.6

-1.3

0.0

0.3

-3.5

1.5

-Exports

0.1

-0.3

1.3

-0.3

-0.8

-0.3

-3.7

0.5

Inventory

-1.6

9.7

0.1

3.6

0.6

-0.8

2.0

0.9

Capacity utilization rate Production capacity (y-o-y)

72.9 72.6 73.0 71.7 74.9 71.7 70.2 70.4

2.8

1.1

0.7

0.1

2.4

0.0

-0.1

0.5

1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. At the end of the period

Despite strong exports and improving global economies, mining and manufacturing production may not have picked up in February, given the current trade issues and uncertainties arising from major economiesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; monetary policy normalization.

7. Service sector activity Service output increased 0.8 percent month-on-month in January, led by professional, scientific & technical services and transportation & storage sevices. Wholesale & retail declined, along with hotels & restaurants. Compared to a year ago, service output rose 3.6 percent.

Service sector activity (%)

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2

Service sector activity (y-o-y)

-4 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Service sector activity (m-o-m)

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

January 2018 service output by business (y-o-y, %) 12 10 8 6 4

Total index

Transportation & storage services

Real estate & renting

Healthcare & social welfare services

2 0

Membership organizations & personal services

Business services Publishing & communications services

Hotels & restaurants Wholesale & retail

Financial & insurance services

-2

Professional, scientific & technical services

Education services

Entertainment & leisure

Sewerage & waste management

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(Percentage change from previous period)

Weight

2016

2018

2017 1

Annual Annual Q1

Nov Dec Jan1

Service activity index

100.0

2.6

1.9

0.7

0.5

0.9

0.2

1.4 -0.2

- Wholesale & retail

21.1

2.6

0.7 -0.1

0.1

0.8

0.6

2.5 -0.4 -0.7

- Transportation & storage services

9.0

2.2

1.6

2.0

0.5

1.4 -0.2

- Hotels & restaurants

6.2

2.3 -1.9

0.2

0.0 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -1.2 -1.3

- Publishing & communications services

8.0

2.5

1.5

1.2

0.7

1.3

0.9 -1.3

0.2

0.7

14.1

4.1

5.1

1.5

1.0

1.1

3.9

2.7

0.4

0.8

- Real estate & renting

3.2

0.6

1.2 -2.3

3.0

3.2 -8.4

8.5

0.4

1.6

- Professional, scientific & technical services

7.1 -0.8 -1.6

0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -0.6

2.0 -1.2

3.5

- Business services

4.8

1.5

4.3

1.5

1.1

0.7

0.1

0.7

- Education services

10.6

0.7

0.0

0.1 -0.4

0.5 -0.6

0.3

0.5

1.0

- Healthcare & social welfare services

9.4

8.1

7.0

1.3

1.2

2.1 -1.1 -0.3

0.2

0.1

- Entertainment & leisure

2.2

2.3

0.2

0.6

1.0 -1.8

2.8

2.7

- Membership organizations & personal services

3.2

0.3

0.0 -0.5

- Sewerage & waste management

1.1

3.1 -2.3

- Financial & insurance services

1.1

0.2

0.2 -4.8

1.5

0.5 -0.9

0.2 -1.4

0.8

2.2

0.9 -1.4

3.6

0.4

0.9

2.2

0.5 -2.8

3.6

1.5

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Service output for February will likely be affected by both positive and negative factors: Sales at department stores and large discount stores increased, but stock transactions and domestic sales of cars declined.

March 2018

2018

2017 Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

15.8 -13.5

Nov

Domestic sales of cars (y-o-y, %)

9.8

11.7

Department store sales (y-o-y, %)

0.1

-1.0

5.0

Large discount store sales (y-o-y, %)

1.0

-1.6

-1.1

1.7

5.9

Average daily stock transactions (trillion won)

8.4

7.6

8.8

10.1

12.7

Number of Chinese tourists (y-o-y, %)

-0.2

Dec

Jan

Feb

-4.0 -19.4

8.6 -11.2

6.3

-7.9

8.5

1.0

-8.7

13.5

12.1

15.8

13.0

5.9

-69.3 -61.2 -56.1 -49.3 -42.1 -37.9 -46.0 -41.21

1. â&#x20AC;&#x152; Advanced estimates based on all Chinese entries, which can be different from the statistic released by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism as it excludes diplomatic and military personnel Sources: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Korea Exchange, data provided by retail industries

8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in January increased by 334,000 from a year earlier to 26,213,000, and the employment rate (aged 15-64) rose 0.7 percentage points to 66.2 percent. By industry, construction and services continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent and self-employed workers increased, while temporary and daily workers continued to decline.

Number of persons employed and employment growth (thousands)

(millions)

1,000

800

600

400

200

-200

Employment growth (y-o-y, left) -400

Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)

21 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Employment by industry (%)

100

71.2 71.2 70.7 70.5 70.4 70.4 70.7 70.7 70.6 70.6 70.6 71.5 71.9 71.5 71.1 70.6 70.2 70.1 70.4 70.6 70.4 70.3 70.5 70.9 71.1

Services Construction

7.0 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6

20 18.2 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.2 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.4 17.6

Manufacturing 0

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

3.5 3.8 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.0 3.8 3.4 3.7 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.0 3.8

2016.1 2

10 11 12 2017.1 2

10 11 12 2018.1

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

2016

2017

2018

Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Jan 26.41 26.72 26.62 26.73 26.10 26.92 27.00 26.88 25.88 26.21

Number of employed (millions) Employment rate (%) (Seasonally adjusted) - 15 to 64 Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands) - Manufacturing - Construction - Services · Wholesale & retail · Hotels & restaurants · Healthcare & social welfare services

60.6 61.2 60.9 60.8 59.6 61.3 61.4 61.0 59.1 59.5 60.6 60.6 60.7 60.8 60.9 60.8 60.8 60.9 60.7 61.1 66.1 66.5 66.5 66.6 65.8 66.9 67.0 66.9 65.5 66.2 231

255

353

367

279

232

334

-21

-92 -119

256

316

-18 -120

-21

265

41 -170

106

119

136

163

299

401

319

209

360

224

144

103

313

-63

-11

-16

-32

96 80

107 95

96 84

-3 61

55 78

4 57

-31 53

-40 54

72 60

-31 40

Source: Statistics Korea

Employment by status of workers (%)

100

3.8 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.7 20.9 20.9 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.5 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.1 21.0 21.1 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4

Unpaid family workers

Self-employed workers Daily workers Temporary workers Regular workers

19.3 19.2 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.5 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.1 18.4 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.5 17.8

50.3 50.5 49.9 49.4 49.1 49.0 48.8 48.9 49.2 49.1 49.2 50.1 50.8 51.0 50.6 49.9 49.7 49.6 49.8 50.2 50.0 50.0 50.2 51.1 52.0

2016.1 2

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

12 2017.1 2

11 12 2018.1

March 2018

2016

2017

2018

Annual

Jan

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

231

255

256

316

353

367

279

265

232

334

- Wage workers

267

235

137

265

191

312

291

265

322

路 Permanent workers

346

277

244

366

317

347

417

382

246

485

路 Temporary workers

36 -114 -132 -152 -126 -145 -104 -184

-94

路 Daily workers

-88

-78

-13

-69

-36

120

161

-12

167

-9

125

168

166

118

142

127

171

174

100

177

- Female

146

137

115

189

182

192

187

193

132

158

- 15 to 29

-1

-7

-42

-9

- 30 to 39

-57

-70

-59

-29

-53

-27

-18

-17

-83

-14

- 40 to 49

-59

-50

-94

-50

-41

-48

-55

-54

-48

-52

110

152

177

159

139

134

133

147

223

234

284

242

254

251

221

243

239

223

- Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers - Male

- 50 to 59 - 60 and above Source: Statistics Korea

The number of unemployed persons in January was up by 12,000 from a year earlier to 1,020,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent. Unemployment among young adults and those in their 40s rose, while unemployment among those in their 30s and those over 60 declined.

Unemployment rate (%)

Original data

2 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

2016 Annual

Number of unemployed (thousands) 1,009

2017

Q4 Annual

983

873 1,023 1,162 1,074

2018

Jan

963

892 1,008 1,020

Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

-20

- Male

-2

-15

-8

- Female

-12

-28

Unemployment rate (%)

3.7

3.5

3.2

3.7

4.3

3.8

3.4

3.2

3.7

(Seasonally adjusted)

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.7

3.6

- 15 to 29

9.8

9.3

8.3

9.8 10.7 10.3

9.3

9.0

8.6

8.7

- 30 to 39

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.6

3.4

3.0

3.3

3.1

- 40 to 49

2.1

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.2

- 50 to 59

2.3

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.3

1.8

2.2

- 60 and above

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.9

4.8

2.3

2.2

4.7

4.6

Source: Statistics Korea

The economically inactive population in January decreased 64,000 from a year earlier to 16,840,000, and the labor force participation rate rose 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 61.8 percent. The number of persons economically inactive due to rest (up 119,000) and old age (up 49,000) increased, and those due to education (down 13,000) and childcare (down 106,000) decreased. Job seekers were down by 37,000.

Labor force participation rate (%)

65 64 63 62 61 60 59

Original data

58 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

March 2018

2016 Annual

Economically inactive population (millions)

2017 Q4

Annual

2018

Jan

16.19 15.95 16.23 16.18 16.56 15.91 16.01 16.26 16.90 16.84

Labor force participation rate (%)

62.9

63.5

62.9

63.2

62.2

63.8

63.6

63.1

61.4

61.8

(Seasonally adjusted)

62.9

63.0

63.2

63.1

63.2

63.0

63.4

Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)

102

-5

-20

-85

-64

- Childcare

-79

-62

-35

-96

-86

-88

-105

-107

-76

-102

- Housework

-33

-4

- Education

-51

-66

-33

-91

-63

-131

-88

-81

-12

-130

- Old age

109

103

- Rest

-20

-77

108

166

220

-7

119

- Job seeking

-23

-10

-37

Source: Statistics Korea

9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market KOSPI declined 5.4 percent in February from 2,566.46 points to 2,427.36 points due to increased volatility in global markets. KOSDAQ fell 6.2 percent from 913.57 points to 857.06 points. (Closing rate)

KOSPI Jan 2018 Feb 2018

KOSDAQ 1

Change

Stock price index (points) 2,566.46 2,427.36 -139.13 (-5.4%) Market capitalization (trillion won) Daily trade (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)

Jan 2018 Feb 2018

Change1

913.57

857.06

-56.51 (-6.2%)

1,668.6

1,611.6

-57.0 (-3.4%)

325.3

274.6

-50.7 (-15.6%)

7.14

6.89

-0.26 (-3.6%)

8.67

6.16

-2.51 (-28.9%)

36.76

36.51

-0.25 (-0.7%)

13.64

11.59

+2.05 (+17.7%)

1. Change from the end of the previous month as of end-February 2018 Source: Korea Exchange

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Stock prices (monthly average, points)

2,600 2,200 1,800 1,400 1,000 600

KOSPI

200 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

KOSDAQ

Source: Korea Exchange

9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate rose 1.4 percent in February from 1,067.9 won to 1,082.8 won. The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose 2.8 percent from 983.0 won to 1,010.7 won as the yen strengthened amid expectations that the Bank of Japan may begin tightening sooner than expected.

Foreign exchange rates (month-end, â&#x201A;Š)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

Dollar-Won

800 2009.1

2010.1

100 Yen-Won

Source: Bank of Korea

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

March 2018

Daily foreign exchange rate trend (₩)

1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950

Dollar-Won 100 Yen-Won

900 2017.3

2017.4

2017.5

2017.6

2017.7

2017.8

2017.9

2017.10

2017.11

2017.12

2018.1

2018.2

Source: Bank of Korea (Closing rate)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Dec

Jan

Feb

Change1

1,070.6

1,055.4

1,099.3

1,172.5

1,207.7

1,070.5

1,067.9

1,082.8

-1.4

100 Yen-Won 1,238.3

1,002.3

913.0

974.1

1,035.4

949.3

983.0

1,010.7

-2.8

Dollar-Won

2018

1. ‌ Appreciation from the end of the previous month as of end-February 2018 (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:30 p.m., local time. Source: Bank of Korea

9.3 Bond market Korea treasury yields were mixed in February: Improving US economic indicators and hawkish rhetoric from the Fed put upward pressure on yields, while the BOK Monetary Policy Committee’s unanimous decision to freeze the benchmark interest rate put downward pressure. Yield to maturity (m-o-m, basis points)

-0.8 (3yrs), -5.1 (5 yrs), -3.3 (10 yrs), +2.5 (20 yrs), +3.4 (30 yrs) (Closing rate, %)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Dec

Jan

Feb

Change1

Call rate (1 day)

3.29

2.77

2.52

2.03

1.52

1.27

1.58

1.54

1.51

-3

CD (91 days)

3.55

2.89

2.66

2.13

1.67

1.52

1.66

1.65

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

3.34

2.82

2.86

2.10

1.66

1.64

2.14

2.27

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

4.21

3.29

2.43

2.11

2.13

2.68

2.81

2.82

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

3.46

2.97

3.23

2.28

1.81

1.80

2.34

2.57

2.52

-5

1. Basis points, %p, changes from the previous month as of end-February 2018 Source: Bank of Korea

2018

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Interest rates (monthly average, yearly, %)

8 7 6 5 4 3 2

3-yr corporate bond yield

3-yr Treasury bond yield

0 2009.1

Overnight call rate (daily)

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Bank of Korea

9.4 Money supply and money market M2 (monthly average) in December rose 4.7 percent from a year ago as certificate of deposits (CDs) and currency in circulation increased.

Total money supply (y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)

35 30 25 20 15 10

Reserve money

0 2009.1

2010.1

Source: Bank of Korea

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2017.1

2018.1

March 2018

(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Annual

Nov

Dec

Dec1

M12

11.8

6.6

3.8

9.5

10.9

18.6

15.4

7.2

6.9

825.9

8.7

4.2

5.2

4.8

6.6

8.6

7.3

4.8

4.7

2,527.3

8.2

5.3

7.8

6.9

7.0

9.7

8.1

5.8

6.1

3,540.7

2017

1. Balance at end-December 2017, trillion won 2. M1 excludes corporate MMFs and individual MMFs, and includes CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) Source: Bank of Korea

Bank deposits decreased 7.8 trillion won in January: Instant access deposits fell 22.3 trillion won as corporations withdrew money to pay VATs. Time deposits rose 8.3 trillion won as banks worked to increase fixed term savings to improve their liquidity coverage ratios. Asset management company (AMC) deposits increased 28.8 trillion won: Money market funds (MMFs) surged 23.6 trillion won as money withdrawn at the end of last year was redeposited in January, including money withdrawn by the government and banks.

Deposits in financial institutions (m-o-m, end of month balance, trillion won)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

Source: Bank of Korea

(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

2017

2018

Nov

Dec

Jan

Jan1

Bank deposits

36.9

58.9

37.0

41.0 115.4 100.3

80.8

13.5

10.2

-7.8

1,543.6

AMC deposits

-16.7

-16.6

18.8

17.7

47.6

-2.6

-11.0

28.8

526.0

1. Balance at end-January 2018 Source: Bank of Korea

42.4

44.4

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in January posted a surplus of US $2.68 billion, staying in the black for 71 consecutive months. Goods account surpluses decreased compared to the previous month from US $8.21 billion to US $8.11 billion. Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) 0.58 (Dec 2017) → 1.69 (Jan 2018)

Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) 0.77 (Dec 2017) → 1.95 (Jan 2018)

Export growth by item in January (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis)

53.4 (semiconductors), 38.7 (computers), 27.8 (machinery), 28.3 (petroleum products), 18.6 (petrochemicals), 11.9 (vessels)

Import growth by category in January (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) 19.9 (commodities), 21.6 (capital goods), 23.9 (consumer goods)

Services account deficits increased month-on-month from US $3.77 billion to US $4.49 billion due to large tourism deficits. Services balance (US $ billion, Dec 2017 → Jan 2018)

-0.65 → -0.77 (manufacturing), -0.46 → -0.60 (transportation), -1.71 → -2.16 (travel), 0.85 → 0.84 (construction), -0.38 → -0.54 (intellectual property rights), -1.46 → -1.30 (business services)

Primary income account surpluses increased from US $0.58 billion to US $0.68 billion, and secondary income account deficits increased from US $0.93 billion to US $1.61 billion.

Current account balance (US $ billion) 18 15 12 9 6 3 0

Goods account

-3

Services account

-6 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Current account

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

March 2018

Travel balance (US $ billion)

4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2

Travel balance

-3

Travel payment

-4

Travel revenue

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends) (US $ billion)

2016 Annual

2017 1

Q4 Annual

2018 1

Jan

Dec

Jan1

Current account

99.24 22.56 22.68 78.46 19.20 16.45 25.57 17.24 5.30 4.09 2.68

- Goods balance

118.90 28.18 27.33 119.89 27.31 29.56 34.75 28.27 7.73 8.21 8.11

- Services balance

-17.74 -5.55 -4.33 -34.47

- Primary income balance

3.85 2.32 0.86

0.12

- Secondary income balance -5.77 -2.40 -1.19 -7.08

-8.66 -6.75 -8.50 -10.56 -3.34 -3.77 -4.49 1.37 -4.88 1.95

1.68 1.18 0.58 0.68

-0.82 -1.48 -2.63 -2.15 -0.27 -0.93 -1.61

1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in January posted an outflow of US $4.11 billion. Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion)

5.07 (Jan 2017) → 8.93 (Jun) → 9.44 (Jul) → 8.99 (Aug) → 12.41 (Sep) → 8.44 (Oct) → 10.44 (Nov) → 6.35 (Dec) → 4.11 (Jan 2018) * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) posted a net outflow of US $0.14 billion (US $0.17 billion net inflow in December 2017 → US $0.14 billion net out flow in January 2018): Korean FDI rose by US $1.40 billion (up US $3.07 billon → up US $1.40 billion), while inbound FDI rose by US $1.26 billion (up US $3.24 billion → up US $1.26 billion). Net outflows decreased in portfolio investment (US $12.42 billion → US $3.49 billion) as foreign investment in Korean shares picked up (down US $5.08 billion → up US $7.08 billion). Korean investment in foreign shares (up US $7.34 billion → up US $10.57 billion) also grew faster. Net inflows decreased in financial derivatives investment (US $1.45 billion → US $1.29 billion), and other investment posted a net outflow (US $5.22 billion net inflow → US $0.33 billion net outflow).

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion)

15 12 9 6 3 0 -3

Capital & financial account Direct investment Portfolio investment

-6 -9 -12

2009.1

Financial derivatives

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices in February rose 0.8 percent from the previous month and 1.4 percent from the same period of the previous year. (Percentage change)

2017

2018

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Consumer price inflation (m-o-m) 0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.6

0.1

-0.2

-0.7

0.3

0.4

0.8

(y-o-y)

1.9

2.2

2.6

2.1

1.8

1.3

1.5

1.0

1.4

2.0

Source: Statistics Korea

Consumer price inflation (%)

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Consumer price inflation (y-o-y) Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

-1 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

March 2018

Fresh food prices rose (down 0.6% → up 3.5%, y-o-y) due to high vegetable prices amid cold weather and as fishery product prices continued to rise. Livestock product prices fell. Domestic oil prices rose at a slower rate (up 4.5% → up 4.0%, y-o-y) due to falling international oil prices and a high base effect. Personal service prices rose faster (up 2.0% → up 2.4%, y-o-y) due to increased travel costs reflecting Lunar New Year holiday demand.

Contribution to consumer price inflation (%p)

Personal services

Public services 1

Housing rents Public utilities Manufactured products Agricultural, livestock & fishery products

-1

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total

Agricultural, Manufactured Public Housing Public Personal Oil livestock & utilities rents services services fishery products products products

Jan (y-o-y, %)

1.0

-0.6

1.0

4.5

-1.5

1.2

0.5

2.0

Feb (y-o-y, %)

1.4

3.5

0.8

4.0

-1.5

1.1

0.5

2.4

- Contribution (%p)

0.30

0.26

0.18

-0.06

0.10

0.07

0.78

Source: Statistics Korea

Core inflation accelerated in January. Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products rose 1.2 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2017 Jul

2018

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan

Feb

Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 1.8

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.5

1.1

1.2

Consumer prices excluding food and energy

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

Source: Statistics Korea

1.5

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

The basic necessities price index rose at a faster pace as vegetable prices went up. The fresh food price index also rose. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2017 Consumer prices for basic necessities Fresh food prices

2018

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

3.1

3.7

2.9

2.0

1.3

1.6

0.8

1.4

12.3

18.3

6.0

1.8

-2.5

-3.9

-2.6

4.3

Source: Statistics Korea

Prices (y-o-y, %) 9

-3

Consumer price inflation Core inflation

-6 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

Producer price inflation

Sources: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends), Bank of Korea (producer prices)

11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices fell month-on-month in February as US crude oil production increased along with its inventories. Bearish stock markets in early February curbed risk appetite, putting downward pressure on international oil prices. Dubai crude (US $/barrel)

63.4 (1st week Feb 2018) → 60.3 (2nd week) → 61.9 (3rd week) → 62.6 (4th week) (US $/barrel, period average)

2016

2018

2017 Q1

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Dubai crude

Annual Annual 41.4

53.2

53.0

49.7

50.4

59.3

55.5

60.8

61.6

66.2

62.7

WTI crude

43.5

50.9

51.8

48.1

48.2

55.3

51.6

56.7

57.9

63.7

62.2

Brent crude

45.1

54.7

54.6

50.8

52.2

61.5

57.6

62.9

64.1

69.1

65.7

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

March 2018

International oil prices (US $/B)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20

WTI

0 2009.1

Dubai crude

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Domestic gasoline prices went up in February, reflecting with a time lag rising international oil prices. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter)

1,563.8 (1st week Feb 2018) → 1,565.6 (2nd week) → 1,565.4 (3rd week) → 1,564.0 (4th week)

International gasoline prices (US $/barrel)

77.8 (4th week Jan 2018) → 78.6 (5th week) → 75.3 (1st week Feb) → 71.4 (2nd week)

Dollar-won exchange rate (won)

1,067.0 (4th week Jan 2018) → 1,068.0 (5th week) → 1,085.7 (1st week Feb) → 1,084.9 (2nd week)

Dubai crude prices and import prices (thousand won/B)

Dubai crude (import prices, left)

(US $/B)

160

140

120

100

40 20

20 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Dubai international prices (right)

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

(Won/liter, period average)

2016

2018

2017

Annual Annual

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Gasoline prices

1,403 1,491 1,510 1,477 1,456 1,522 1,504 1,521 1,540 1,552 1,565

Diesel prices

1,183 1,283 1,301 1,267 1,248 1,314 1,296 1,313 1,332 1,345 1,360

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

International corn and wheat prices rose in February due to the droughts in Argentina and the US. International grain prices in February (monthly average prices, m-o-m, %) 4.2 (corn), 6.0 (wheat), 3.9 (soybeans)

International copper prices fell in February as US inventories rose amid slowing demand, and aluminum prices fell following the US steel and aluminum tariffs recommended by the US Department of Commerce on the 16th of the month due to concerns over slowing demand. Nonferrous metal prices in February (monthly average prices, m-o-m, %) -1.1 (copper), -1.3 (aluminum), 5.4 (nickel)

US copper inventory (m-o-m, %)

1.5 (Nov 2017) → 1.0 (Dec) → 4.7 (Jan 2018) → 4.2 (Feb) (Period average)

2016 Annual Annual 1

Reuters Index

(Sep 18, 1931=100)

2018

2017

2,330

2,472

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

2,644

2,426

2,404

2,409

2,417

2,426

2,379

2,366

2,339

1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS

International commodity prices (points)

(points)

500

4,000

450 3,000

400 350 300

2,000

250 200

1,000

150

CRB (left) Reuters index (right)

100

0 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: KOREA PDS * ‌ CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

March 2018

12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Housing prices nationwide rose 0.20 percent month-on-month in February. Housing prices rose 0.46 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area which includes Seoul (up 0.94%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.19%) and Incheon (up 0.08%). Housing prices were down 0.04 percent in the five metropolitan cities (up 0.02%) and the eight provinces (down 0.08%). Housing prices in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %)

Busan (-0.08), Daegu (0.16), Gwangju (0.16), Daejeon (0.15), Ulsan (-0.26)

Housing sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013 2014 2015 2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

2018

Oct

Nov

Dec Annual Jan

Feb

0.3

1.7

3.5

0.7

1.5

0.13

0.11

0.3

0.14

0.20

Seoul metropolitan area -1.1

1.5

4.4

1.3

2.4

0.20

0.25

0.8

0.36

0.46

- Seoul

-1.4

1.1

4.6

2.1

3.6

0.23

0.36

0.59

1.8

0.86

0.94

Âˇ Gangnam

-1.1

1.2

5.2

2.5

4.4

0.29

0.45

0.82

2.5

1.25

1.20

Âˇ Gangbuk

-1.7

1.1

3.9

1.8

2.9

0.18

0.27

0.36

1.1

0.45

0.67

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

1.7

1.9

2.7

0.2

0.7

0.07

0.02 -0.01

Nationwide

-0.1 -0.05 -0.04

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Housing sales prices (m-o-m, %)

-1

Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area

-2 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Housing rental prices nationwide fell 0.09 percent month-on-month. Housing rental prices in major districts in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.01), Songpa (-0.12), Yangcheon (0.49), Mapo (0.44), Gangseo (0.66)

Housing rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013 2014 2015 2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Nationwide

Oct

Nov

2018 Dec Annual Jan

Feb

4.7

3.4

4.8

1.3

0.6

0.06

0.05 -0.03

-0.1

-0.05 -0.09

Seoul metropolitan area 6.2

4.7

7.1

2.0

1.4

0.12

0.13 -0.01

-0.1

-0.04 -0.09

- Seoul

6.6

3.6

7.2

2.0

0.14

0.21

0.17

0.4

0.20

0.17

Âˇ Gangnam

6.7

3.3

7.9

1.8

2.6

0.16

0.28

0.21

0.4

0.25

0.17

Âˇ Gangbuk

6.4

3.8

6.5

2.1

1.5

0.12

0.14

0.13

0.3

0.14

0.17

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area 3.3

2.2

2.8

0.7

-0.1

0.00 -0.03 -0.05

-0.1

-0.06 -0.09

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Housing rental prices (m-o-m, %)

Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area

-1

-2 2009.1

2010.1

2001.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

There were 70,354 housing transactions in January, down 1.8 percent from a month earlier (71,646) and up 20.2 percent from a year ago (58,539).

Housing transactions 2015

2016 1

Annual Annual

Nationwide

(Thousands)

2017

2018

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

March 2018

Housing transactions (thousands)

150

125

100

Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

0 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

12.2 Land market Land prices nationwide rose 0.33 percent month-on-month in January. Land prices rose 0.33 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Seoul (up 0.42%). Land prices in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)

0.40 (Jun 2017) → 0.39 (Jul) → 0.34 (Aug) → 0.30 (Sep) → 0.27 (Oct) → 0.31 (Nov) → 0.31 (Dec) → 0.33 (Jan 2018)

Land prices rose 0.32 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area, led by Ulsan (up 0.33%), Daegu (up 0.34%) and Daejeon (up 0.26%). Land prices in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)

0.38 (Jun 2017) → 0.38 (Jul) → 0.37 (Aug) → 0.36 (Sep) → 0.31 (Oct) → 0.34 (Nov) → 0.33 (Dec) → 0.32 (Jan 2018)

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

Land prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013 2014 2015 2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

2018

Nov

Dec

Jan

Nationwide

1.14

1.96

2.40

2.70

3.88

0.74

1.10

1.06

0.93

0.32

0.33

Seoul

1.21

2.66

2.69

2.97

4.32

0.75

1.34

1.20

0.96

0.33

0.34

0.42

Gyeonggi

0.91

1.24

1.73

2.23

3.45

0.68

1.00

0.87

0.85

0.30

0.29

0.26

Incheon

0.87

1.35

1.95

1.74

3.10

0.67

0.77

0.90

0.72

0.22

0.24

0.21

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Land prices (y-o-y, %) 6 5 4 3 2 1

National average 0

Metropolitan city -1

City

-2 2007

County

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Land and consumer prices (y-o-y, %)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10

Land price inflation

-20 1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Consumer price inflation

Source: Korea Appraisal Board (land prices), Statistics Korea (consumer prices)

2006

2011

2016

March 2018

There were 298,000 land transactions in January, up 0.6 percent from the previous month and up 37.8 percent from a year ago (216,000). Land transactions (m-o-m, %)

Seoul (1.3), Busan (20.2), Sejong (31.1), Gyeonggi Province (-4.0), North Gyeongsang Province (-15.4), Jeju (-11.8)

Vacant land transactions decreased 7.6 percent from the previous month to 100,000, accounting for 33.4 percent of the total land transactions. The index rose 13.3 percent compared with a year ago (88,000).

Land transactions

(Land lots, thousands)

2015 2016 1

2017

2018

Annual Annual Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Nationwide

257

250

216 226 273 258 280 301 312 327 293 238 294 296 298

Seoul

Gyeonggi

Incheon

1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

Land transactions (thousand mÂ˛)

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

Seoul metropolitan area Area excluding Seoul metropolitan are

0 2009.1

2010.1

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Economic Bulletin

The Green Book

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output rose 1.2 percent month-on-month in January. Output increased in mining & manufacturing (up 1.0%), construction (up 8.2%) and services (up 0.8%), and decreased in public administration (down 0.1%). Compared to a year ago, industrial output rose 4.5 percent.

Index of all industry production (%)

-5

Industrial output (y-o-y)

-10 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Industrial output (m-o-m)

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)h

2017 Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

2018 Oct

Nov

Jan1

Dec

Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %)

-0.3

0.7

0.0

0.6

-0.6

0.3

-0.5

1.2

(y-o-y, %)

2.0

2.4

2.1

7.4

-3.0

1.4

-0.7

4.5

Coincident composite index (2015=100) (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (2015=100) (m-o-m, %)

107.0 107.2 107.4 107.7 107.7 108.0 107.9 108.3 0.1

0.3

-0.1

0.4

100.6 100.5 100.4 100.4 100.2 100.2

99.8

99.9

-0.4

0.1

-0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.3

0.0

-0.2

0.0

109.5 110.0 110.4 110.5 110.8 111.1 111.4 112.0 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.3

0.5

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 101.0 101.2 101.1 100.9 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.8 (m-o-m, p)

0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

1. Preliminary

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.1 points from the previous month to 99.9. Four components of the index rose, while the other three either declined or remained unchanged.

March 2018

Components of the coincident composite index in January (m-o-m)

service output (0.8%), retail sales (1.4%), value of construction completed (2.5%), imports (0.1%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.0%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.7%), domestic shipments (-0.5%)

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (points)

110

105

100

90 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points from the previous month to 100.8. Among the eight components of the leading composite index, five rose and the other three fell. Components of the leading composite index in January (m-o-m)

consumer expectations index (0.4p), domestic shipments of machinery (3.5%), value of construction orders received (13.7%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (4.6%p), KOSPI (0.5%), inventory circulation indicator (-3.2%p), ratio of export to import prices (-1.1%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.02%p)

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (points)

110

105

100

90 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Policy Issue

Measures to increase young adult jobs

March 2018

Measures to Increase Young Adult Jobs Government Focuses on Temporary Incentives to Boost SME Employment as well as Long-term Restructuring

It is time to employ temporary stimulus to respond to changes in demographics and at the same time to pursue restructuring across industries, education and job markets to achieve sustainability.

Background Young adult unemployment has been on the rise since 1990’s, increasing faster compared with total unemployment1), and young adult real unemployment has stayed over 20 percent since records began in 20152). Reasons behind this trend are structural as demand continues to decline and mismatches between job openings and job seekers grow. - ‌ Jobs young adults look for have been decreasing as technology advances. Furthermore companies hire more experienced workers. - ‌ Private sector job markets have been sluggish: Demand from major industries decrease and demand from new growth engines is still low. - ‌ Large corporations have created less and less jobs since the Asian financial crisis in 1998 as they reach business maturity. 1) ‌ Total unemployment rates vs. young adult unemployment rates (1990’s → 2017): 3.3 → 3.7 (total), 6.7 → 9.8 (young adults) 2) Young adult real unemployment rates: 21.9 (2015) → 22.1 (2016) → 22.7 (2017)

Economic Bulletin

Policy Issue

- ‌ There has been a huge mismatch between job openings and job seekers, for 69 percent of Korean young adults are college graduates and they seek jobs which require higher education - ‌ Labor markets are not flexible enough for young adults to find permanent jobs due to the high level of job security for permanent positions3). There are also demographical reasons, yet temporary, which have contributed to the high unemployment among young adults: Eco-boomers have been entering the job market, and their entry to the job market will peak in 20184).

Framework Short-term measures focus on creating 180,000~220,000 jobs additionally until 2021, during which eco-boomers will newly enter the job market, with a young adult unemployment target of around 8 percent by 2021. The measures will include incentives to increase private sector jobs and temporary fiscal support. The four areas of the framework are: - Help increase the income of young SME employees - Promote startups - ‌ Provide new opportunities: Promote new industries, such as the sharing economy and remote healthcare, as well as help find jobs overseas - ‌ Strengthen job training: Launch job training programs for young adults in their mandatory military service, and promote work-study programs Long-term measures focus on pursuing ‘growth through innovation’, improving regulations and education, and increasing labor market flexibility.

Four areas of short-term measures 1) ‌ Encourage young adults to work for SMEs and help the private sector create jobs Raise income - ‌ Increase SME wage support for hiring young adults: Annual support of up to 9 million won per employee for three years - ‌ Give a five year personal income tax exemption to newly hired SME employees: Those aged 34 years or younger are eligible for the tax exemption, which will sunset in 2021. - Expand the EITC to those under 30 if they live in one-person households - ‌ Give housing and transportation support: SME employees aged 34 or younger will be eligible for up to 35 million won of deposit loans with a low interest rate of 1.2 percent, and monthly transportation support of 100,000 won if they work for SMEs inconveniently located.

3) ‌ Ratio of temporary jobs to total jobs (%, 2006 → 2017): 35.4 → 32.9 (total), 33.1 → 35.7 (young adults), 29.7 → 20.6 (those in their 30s), 69.0 → 67.3 (those in their 60s) 4) ‌ Population growth for those aged 25-29 (thousands): 95 (2017) → 110 (2018) → 83 (2019) → 55 (2020) → 45 (2021) → -38 (2022)

March 2018

Promote asset building - ‌ Help save 30 million won while working at SMEs: Provide fiscal support of up to three folds of the savings according to the plan (three-year plan for newly hired young adults, and five-year plan for existing young adult employees)5). Promote job creation - ‌ Give corporate tax credit for hiring young adults: Annual tax credits of up to 11 million won per employee for three years if it is an SME, and annual tax credits of 3 million won per employee for two years if it is a large corporation - ‌ Give regulatory support for corporate projects creating more jobs, including projects by large corporations - Work to increase public sector jobs by more than 5,000 in 2018

2) Promote startups Help start business - ‌ Provide financial support as well as business consulting services if the startup has either brilliant ideas or high technology: Up to 60 million won of support available to up to 10,000 startups if they have brilliant ideas, and up to 100 million won of support available to up to 3,000 startups with high technology - ‌ Help foreign talents start high-tech business in Korea: Select 200 most brilliant business ideas and help them be commercialized, providing total support from idea incubation to visa processes - ‌ Fully utilize the 2018 startup funds, for which 2.6 trillion won has been raised - ‌ Introduce business service vouchers for startups, which pay professional services, such as accounting, tax, labor relations and patent law services Give tax incentives - Give young adult startups a five-year corporate and income tax exemption - ‌ Give all startups a five-year corporate and income tax exemption if they earn 48 million won or less a year Promote TIPS(Tech Incubator Program for Startups)6) - Increase investment through TIPS from 200 startups a year to 500 startups - ‌ Launch post-TIPS, a follow up program through which up to 2 billion won of investment will be made over three years - ‌ Provide office spaces for TIPS startups nationwide, and expand TIPS investment to local startups with less than 100 million won private sector investment Encourage large corporations to support venture startups - ‌ Develop ‘Open Innovation’, a large company-venture cooperation system through which the two enterprises work together to commercialize innovative ideas - ‌ Work to encourage large companies to share their distribution channels with SMEs and ventures

5) ‌ Three-year plan: employee savings of 6 million won + corporate support of 6 million won + government support of 18 million won = 30 million won ‌ Five-year plan: employee savings of 7.2 million won + corporate support of 15 million won + government support of 7.2 million won = 30 million won 6) ‌ A joint public-private investment program to support startup R&D projects: The government invests 900 million won in the project which asset management firms have selected to invest their money in (100 million won).

Economic Bulletin

Policy Issue

3) Provide new opportunities Help create local jobs - ‌ Promote job creation outside the Seoul metropolitan area: Work for more than 70,000 jobs to be created by 2021 - ‌ Provide young social entrepreneurs with up to 50 million won support as well as offer office spaces in community centers Help find jobs overseas - ‌ Help find decent jobs overseas, which pay more than 32 million won annually: Provide job training and employment information, as well as job matching services - ‌ Launch a loan support worth 10 million won a year, which is available to young adults seeking jobs overseas and requires repayment only when they find jobs overseas - ‌ Increase young adult volunteers working in developing countries for more than a year from 2,000 in 2018 to more than 4,000 in 2021: Provide each volunteer up to 20 million won of annual support Promote new industries - ‌ Work to create jobs in new services, such as the sharing economy and remote healthcare - ‌ Work to create jobs in high tech industries and new industries, such as big data and IoT

4) Strengthen job training Help prepare for future career while in military service - ‌ Introduce a job training program local SMEs provide to young adults in mandatory military service near their companies: Those who have completed the program will have chances to be hired by the local SME when their military duties are completed. - ‌ Promote including military training in resumés, and make employment services accessible to those in military service Promote work-study - ‌ Provide high school graduate workers with scholarship support when they go to college - ‌ Give 4 million won of incentives to high school graduates when they work for SMEs - ‌ Promote work-study programs: Provide financial incentives and help with getting similar training while in mandatory military service Grow qualified workers - ‌ Provide advanced education to up to 10,000 young adults, which focuses on future growth engine technologies and skills, such as AI, IoT and SW: The education program will reflect demand from the industry, and will include one year overseas training and employment services, including startup services. - ‌ Utilize large corporations’ job training programs to provide right education according to the demand: Those who have completed the program will have chances to be hired by the large corporation’s associates.

March 2018

Long-term measures Increase investment in future growth engines - ‌ Include future growth engine investment in mid-term fiscal management plans, as well as improve regulations - ‌ Promote major future growth engines, such as smart cities, driverless cars and fintech: Increase investment in these high tech industries, as well as work to increase demand in the public sector market - ‌ Draw up plans to strengthen major industries, such as semiconductors and shipbuilding Promote startups and cooperation among enterprises - ‌ Increase venture capital funds and scrap joint surety to help those who failed try again - ‌ Promote cooperation among SMEs, such as in R&Ds Reform education to address job market mismatches - ‌ Focus high school education on preparing for careers, and allow more freedom in college education - ‌ Expand fiscal support for career high schools and colleges to help them strengthen job training Work to increase job market flexibility, as well as promote job creation - ‌ Expand unemployment benefits to up to 240 days, and work to include those who have left jobs voluntarily - ‌ Expand incentives to promote job creation: Provide business space and give fiscal support including tax support

Fast implement the measures The government will draw up supplementary budgets and work to have them passed in the National Assembly in April, along with tax support. With regard to startup support, the government will complete guidelines and make the support available in the first half of this year. Regulatory reforms, including those to promote new services, will be actively sought to be completed as soon as possible.

Economic News Briefing

Korean FDI reaches record high in 2017 Deputy Prime Minister Kim had bilateral talks at G20 Finance Ministersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Meeting held in Argentina Consolidated fiscal account posts a 16.2 trillion won surplus in 2017 OECD predicts 3.0% growth for Korea in 2018

March 2018

Korean FDI reaches record high in 2017 Korean foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2017 rose to a record high of US $43.70 billion, up 11.8 percent from US $39.10 billion in the previous year. By industry, FDI in finance & insurance (up 47.5%) and wholesale & retail (up 64.9%) surged to a record high, while FDI in manufacturing declined (down 3.4%). FDI in real estate & renting, which had been steadily rising since 2013, fell (down 43.4%) in 2017. By region, FDI rose in North America (up 6.6%), Asia (up 11.4%), Latin America (up 15.8%) and Europe (up 55.6%), but fell in the Middle East (down 40.1%) as construction investment declined in the region. However, Korean FDI declined 22.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter alone from US $13.05 billion to US $10.14 billion. By industry, FDI rose in finance & insurance (up 37.2%), manufacturing (up 30.6%) and publishing & communications (up 12.7%), but fell in real estate & renting (down 34.0%) and wholesale & retail (down 83.9%). By region, FDI increased in Asia (up 10.4%) and Europe (up 96.9%), but fell in North America (down 60.7%)

Deputy Prime Minister Kim had bilateral talks at G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting held in Argentina Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong Yeon had talks with his counterparts from the US, Mexico and Argentina, as well as with Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) President Luis Alberto Moreno, while attending the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting held in Buenos Aires, Argentina on March 19-20. At the Korea-US talks, the two leaders reaffirmed strong defense alliance between the two countries, and discussed US steel tariffs and Korea-US FTA amendment negotiations. DPM Kim and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin exchanged views on the issues and agreed to work closely together for best outcomes. How Korea can help with Latin America’s economic development was a main topic of discussion at the Korea-Mexico Finance Ministers’ talks and the Korea-Argentina Finance Ministers’ talks, and the leaders agreed to work together on efficient economic cooperation between Korea and Latin America. Korea-Latin America economic cooperation through human resources exchange was mainly discussed at the meeting with the IDB President, and the two leaders agreed to increase job opportunities in Latin America for Korea’s high tech talents.

Economic Bulletin

Economic News Briefing

Consolidated fiscal account posts a 16.2 trillion won surplus in 2017 The consolidated fiscal account posted a surplus of 24.0 trillion won, an increase of 7.1 trillion won (0.4 percent points to GDP) compared with the previous year. Excluding social security funds1), the fiscal account registered a deficit of 18.5 trillion won, a decrease of 4.2 trillion won (0.3 percentage points to GDP) compared with the previous year. Central government debt was 627.4 trillion won in 2017 (36.6 percent to GDP, and an increase of 35.4 trillion won compared with 2016 and 6.1 trillion won less compared with the outlook). Total government debt including local governments was 660.7 trillion won (preliminary, 38.6 percent to GDP). Central government debt increased as the government issued bonds to cut general account deficits (18.3 trillion won) and ensure FX market stability (12.0 trillion won). Total national assets based on accrual basis accounting amounted to 2,063.2 trillion won, while liabilities amounted to 1,555.8 trillion won. Net assets were 507.4 trillion won, down 26.3 trillion won from 2016. Total assets increased 96.4 trillion won compared with 2016. Total liabilities increased 122.7 trillion won due to bonds payable (31.8 trillion won) and pension fund liabilities (93.2 trillion won). The increase in pension fund liabilities (88.7 percent of the total increase, 82.6 trillion won) is largely due to the low interest rates, which reduced the fund’s discounted value.

OECD predicts 3.0% growth for Korea in 2018 Korea is expected to grow 3.0 percent in 2018 and 2019, respectively, amid recovering global trade and rising household income, the OECD said in its Interim Economic Outlook released on March 13. The outlook is unchanged from its previous assessment. The OECD’s forecast for world growth in 2018 was revised up from 3.7 percent to 3.9 percent, and the growth outlook for 2019 was revised up from 3.6 percent to 3.9 percent.

1) N ‌ ational Pension Fund, Private School Teachers’ Pension Fund, Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance Fund, Unemployment Benefit Insurance Fund

Statistical Appendices

01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Machinery orders received and facility investment index 06. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 07. Composite indices of business cycle indicators, CSI and BSI 08. Prices 09. Employment (I) 10. Employment (II) 11. Balance of payments (I) 12. Balance of payments (II) 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)

Real GDP

Period

Agri., fores. & fisheries

Final consumption Manufacturing expenditure

Gross fixed capital formation Private consumption

Construction

Facilities

2010

6.5

-4.3

13.7

4.3

4.4

5.5

-3.7

22.0

2011

3.7

-2.0

6.5

2.7

2.9

0.8

-3.4

4.7

2012

2.3

-0.9

2.4

2.2

1.9

-0.5

-3.9

0.1

2013

2.9

3.1

3.6

2.2

1.9

3.3

5.5

-0.8

2014

3.3

3.6

3.5

2.0

1.7

3.4

1.1

6.0

2015

2.8

-0.4

1.8

2.4

2.2

5.1

6.6

4.7

2016p

2.8

-2.9

2.3

2.9

2.5

5.2

10.7

-2.3

2017p

3.1

0.4

4.2

2.8

2.6

8.6

7.5

14.6

2010 Ⅰ

7.3

0.0

16.1

6.2

6.8

12.0

1.6

27.6

Ⅱ

7.4

-2.2

17.2

3.6

6.8

-4.8

28.8

Ⅲ

5.4

-7.8

10.1

3.9

4.0

3.8

-4.8

20.6

Ⅳ

6.0

-5.7

11.9

3.4

3.2

1.3

-5.1

12.9

2011 Ⅰ

4.9

-9.3

11.4

3.3

3.7

-0.7

-8.2

8.3

Ⅱ

3.6

-2.5

6.5

3.3

3.7

2.5

-2.5

8.3

Ⅲ

3.3

-5.8

5.6

2.8

2.5

1.7

-2.2

3.4

Ⅳ

3.0

7.1

3.4

1.7

-0.3

-2.0

-0.9

2012 Ⅰ

2.5

0.1

2.7

2.2

1.6

6.2

-0.2

11.0

Ⅱ

2.4

-1.8

2.8

1.3

0.7

-2.3

-5.3

-1.9

Ⅲ

2.1

0.0

2.0

2.7

2.6

-0.9

-2.6

-4.2

Ⅳ

2.2

-1.3

2.0

2.7

-3.6

-6.4

-3.8

2013 Ⅰ

2.1

-1.2

2.7

1.5

-3.2

1.2

-12.3

Ⅱ

2.7

0.1

3.6

2.2

1.9

4.2

8.9

-3.2

Ⅲ

3.2

4.3

3.8

2.4

1.9

4.9

7.5

2.3

Ⅳ

3.5

7.0

4.2

2.6

2.2

6.5

3.5

11.7

2014 Ⅰ

3.9

5.9

4.7

2.9

2.8

6.1

4.5

7.5

Ⅱ

3.5

4.5

4.7

1.8

1.7

3.6

0.3

8.0

Ⅲ

3.4

2.7

3.1

2.0

1.4

3.6

2.3

4.3

Ⅳ

2.7

2.4

1.8

1.6

1.1

0.7

-1.7

4.2

2015 Ⅰ

2.6

8.5

1.1

1.8

1.5

3.9

4.0

5.4

Ⅱ

2.4

-3.0

0.9

2.0

1.7

3.9

4.6

4.3

Ⅲ

3.0

0.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

6.0

7.6

6.0

Ⅳ

3.2

-4.0

2.7

3.4

6.3

9.6

3.1

2016p Ⅰ

2.9

-2.3

2.4

2.9

2.3

2.9

9.0

-4.6

Ⅱ

3.4

1.0

2.7

3.7

3.5

5.2

10.6

-2.9

Ⅲ

2.6

-4.7

1.4

3.1

2.7

5.3

11.2

-3.9

Ⅳ

2.4

-4.7

2.7

2.0

1.5

7.1

11.6

2.0

2017p Ⅰ

2.9

-2.4

4.5

2.2

2.0

10.4

11.3

14.4

Ⅱ

2.7

0.8

3.2

2.5

2.3

9.6

8.0

17.3

Ⅲ

3.8

-0.9

6.6

3.0

2.5

9.2

7.6

17.0

3.0

3.1

2.7

3.6

3.4

5.8

4.4

10.0

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

March 2018

2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2015=100)

Production index*

Period

Shipment index*

y-o-y change (%)

Inventory index*

y-o-y change (%)

Service production index

y-o-y change (%)

2015

100.0

-0.3

100.0

0.1

99.4

5.2

100.0

2.9

2016

102.3

2.3

101.2

1.2

97.8

-1.6

102.6

2.6

2017p

104.2

1.9

102.2

1.0

107.3

9.7

104.5

1.9

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

97.2

-1.7

98.0

-0.6

96.9

0.8

96.4

2.3

99.9

-1.6

100.3

-0.7

100.1

5.3

99.5

2.7

Ⅲ

98.3

0.6

97.9

1.0

102.2

6.8

99.4

2.6

Ⅳ

104.5

1.5

103.9

1.0

99.4

5.2

104.7

3.7

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ

98.6

1.4

98.4

0.4

107.1

10.5

98.7

2.4

102.1

2.2

101.6

1.3

103.5

3.4

102.8

3.3

Ⅲ

100.2

1.9

98.0

0.1

101.0

-1.2

102.4

3.0

Ⅳ

108.4

3.7

106.7

2.7

97.8

-1.6

106.6

1.8

2017 I Ⅱ Ⅲ

103.2

4.7

101.1

2.7

101.2

-5.5

100.9

2.2

104.3

2.2

102.7

1.1

103.6

0.1

104.5

1.7

104.8

4.6

102.6

4.7

103.5

2.5

105.0

2.5

Ⅳp

104.3

-3.8

102.3

-4.1

107.3

9.7

107.6

0.9

2016 1

98.8

-0.9

97.2

-2.7

105.4

9.4

97.4

2.3

91.6

3.3

91.2

1.6

106.2

9.1

95.3

2.4

105.3

2.0

106.8

2.4

107.1

10.5

103.4

2.5

99.6

-1.7

100.0

-1.5

105.7

6.7

101.4

2.1

102.5

5.5

101.7

3.8

105.6

6.9

102.7

3.3

104.2

3.0

103.1

1.8

103.5

3.4

104.4

4.5

103.1

2.8

100.3

0.7

105.2

1.8

102.1

2.8

98.5

4.0

96.2

1.6

102.6

-1.0

102.4

3.9

99.0

-1.0

97.6

-1.7

101.0

-1.2

102.6

2.3

10p

104.9

-0.7

102.5

-2.5

100.8

-0.9

103.5

1.5

109.0

6.2

106.7

5.1

101.3

-0.2

103.3

2.3

111.3

5.6

110.8

5.4

97.8

-1.6

112.9

1.7

2017 1

100.3

1.5

97.2

0.0

101.6

-3.6

99.6

2.3

98.6

7.6

97.0

6.4

101.7

-4.2

97.5

2.3

110.6

5.0

109.2

2.2

101.2

-5.5

105.6

2.1

103.3

3.7

101.8

1.8

103.7

-1.9

103.1

1.7

104.3

1.8

101.9

0.2

107.1

1.4

104.5

1.8

105.4

1.2

104.3

1.2

103.6

0.1

106.0

1.5

104.8

1.6

101.6

1.3

106.9

1.6

103.5

1.4

100.8

2.3

98.6

2.5

107.0

4.3

103.9

1.5

108.9

10.0

107.5

10.1

103.5

2.5

107.5

4.8 -1.4

99.0

-5.6

96.3

-6.0

107.3

6.4

102.1

107.8

-1.1

106.9

0.2

106.3

4.9

106.5

3.1

12p

106.2

-4.6

103.6

-6.5

107.3

9.7

114.1

1.1

2018 1p

104.9

4.6

101.0

3.9

111.5

9.7

103.2

3.6

* Including mining, manufacturing, electricity & gas and water industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

3. Production capacity and operation ratio (constant prices, 2015=100)

Production capacity index* (2010=100)

Period

Operation ratio index* (2010=100)

y-o-y change (%)

Capacity utilization rate* (%)

2015

100.0

0.9

100.0

-2.0

74.4

2016

102.8

2.8

98.2

-1.8

72.9

2017p

103.9

1.1

97.1

-1.1

72.6

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

99.3

0.8

96.8

-3.7

74.1

99.6

1.0

101.3

-3.3

73.6

Ⅲ

100.1

0.7

98.4

-0.6

75.5

Ⅳ

101.0

1.2

103.5

-0.2

74.5

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ

101.2

1.9

95.8

-1.0

73.4

102.0

2.4

100.3

-1.0

72.8

Ⅲ

103.4

3.3

95.5

-2.9

72.1

Ⅳ

104.4

3.4

101.4

-2.0

73.5

2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ

103.4

2.2

95.9

0.1

73.5

103.7

1.7

98.3

-2.0

72.0

Ⅲ

104.1

0.7

98.1

2.7

73.0

Ⅳp

104.5

0.1

95.9

-5.4

71.7

2016 1

101.0

1.9

95.8

-3.3

72.4

101.0

1.7

88.9

0.9

74.9

101.7

2.2

102.6

-0.5

72.8

101.7

2.2

97.7

-4.5

72.1

101.9

2.3

101.1

2.5

74.6

102.3

2.5

102.0

-0.9

73.6

103.0

3.0

99.6

-1.5

73.7

103.3

3.3

93.2

-1.2

72.5

103.9

3.6

93.6

-6.3

72.3

10p

104.3

3.6

99.0

-6.2

70.3

11p

104.4

3.3

103.0

1.2

73.7

104.6

3.5

102.3

-1.0

72.4

2017 1

103.4

2.4

92.7

-3.2

74.9

103.2

2.2

91.7

3.1

72.3

103.5

1.8

103.3

0.7

73.4

103.6

1.9

97.0

-0.7

71.7

103.8

1.9

98.4

-2.7

72.6

103.7

1.4

99.6

-2.4

71.8

103.9

0.9

98.3

-1.3

72.7

104.0

0.7

94.1

1.0

73.5

104.5

0.6

101.9

8.9

72.7

104.5

0.2

92.0

-7.1

73.3

104.4

0.0

100.2

-2.7

71.7

12p

104.5

-0.1

95.6

-6.5

70.2

2018 1p

103.9

0.5

94.7

2.2

70.4

* Manufacturing industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

March 2018

4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2015=100)

Total

Period

y-o-y change (%)

Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Nondurable goods

y-o-y change (%)

2015

100.0

4.1

100.0

10.1

100.0

-1.2

100.0

2016

103.9

3.9

104.6

4.6

102.3

2.3

104.2

4.2

2017p

105.9

1.9

110.2

5.4

101.2

-1.1

106.0

1.7

95.4

2.7

93.2

7.2

94.5

-1.7

96.9

2.0

98.8

4.0

97.6

8.8

99.2

-1.3

99.2

3.4

Ⅲ

98.6

3.4

98.4

7.7

88.6

-4.0

103.1

4.2

Ⅳ

107.2

6.2

110.9

16.4

117.6

1.6

100.9

3.1

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ

99.9

4.7

99.4

6.7

96.4

2.0

101.7

5.0

104.3

5.6

108.8

11.5

103.4

4.2

102.5

3.3

Ⅲ

101.7

3.1

99.2

0.8

91.5

3.3

107.4

4.2

Ⅳ

109.6

2.2

111.2

0.3

117.7

0.1

105.2

4.3

2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ

101.5

1.6

102.8

3.4

94.7

-1.8

103.9

2.2

105.3

1.0

112.9

3.8

101.0

-2.3

103.6

1.1

105.0

3.2

111.1

12.0

90.8

-0.8

108.4

0.9

111.9

2.1

113.8

2.3

118.4

0.6

108.1

2.8

99.6

5.7

92.9

-1.4

97.3

3.2

103.7

10.2

95.6

2.9

92.8

7.7

89.3

0.9

99.7

1.7

104.5

5.3

112.5

13.3

102.6

1.8

101.6

3.1

102.1

3.4

103.3

8.2

104.9

1.4

100.3

2.2

107.3

4.6

108.4

12.3

110.5

0.7

105.4

2.9

103.4

8.8

114.7

13.9

94.8

12.2

101.9

5.1

102.1

4.3

103.5

0.2

94.1

7.5

105.0

5.0

100.8

5.4

100.9

5.5

85.1

1.1

107.7

7.1

102.2

0.0

93.2

-3.1

95.4

1.3

109.4

0.7

108.4

2.0

107.3

0.7

118.2

0.5

104.6

3.5

109.1

2.6

110.6

1.6

119.9

0.1

103.7

4.5

111.2

2.0

115.6

-1.3

115.0

-0.3

107.4

4.9

2017 1

103.5

3.9

94.7

1.9

96.3

-1.0

110.9

6.9

95.4

-0.2

100.0

7.8

88.4

-1.0

96.4

-3.3

105.5

1.0

113.7

1.1

99.3

-3.2

104.4

2.8

104.0

1.9

108.5

5.0

105.5

0.6

101.2

0.9

107.7

0.4

114.2

5.4

104.9

-5.1

105.8

0.4

104.2

0.8

115.9

1.0

92.6

-2.3

103.8

1.9

104.7

2.5

115.0

11.1

91.6

-2.7

105.7

0.7

101.0

0.2

107.0

6.0

83.4

-2.0

106.0

-1.6

109.3

6.9

111.4

19.5

97.5

2.2

113.5

3.7

107.9

-0.5

104.0

-3.1

113.7

-3.8

107.2

2.5

114.9

5.3

122.8

11.0

124.6

3.9

107.0

3.2

12p

112.8

1.4

114.6

-0.9

117.0

1.7

110.1

2.5

2018 1p

105.0

1.4

111.0

17.2

91.9

-4.6

108.1

-2.5

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

Ⅲ Ⅳp

2016 1

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

3.2

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

5. Machinery orders received and facility investment index Period

Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Facility investment index (2010=100) y-o-y

change (%)

2015

25,453

-3.9

1,921

-61.7

23,533

9.6

112.2

6.9

2016

26,643

4.7

2,862

49.0

23,781

1.1

110.7

-1.3

2017p

31,770

19.2

2,239

-21.8

29,530

24.2

126.3

14.1

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

6,459

-2.5

405

-66.9

6,054

12.0

108.3

9.2

7,032

15.2

493

61.6

6,539

12.7

113.5

5.2

Ⅲ

5,501

-28.3

399

-85.3

5,101

2.8

111.6

10.8

Ⅳ

6,461

6.3

624

-19.8

5,838

10.1

115.2

2.0

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ

6,398

-0.9

637

57.4

5,761

-4.8

100.1

-7.6

6,942

-1.3

575

16.8

6,367

-2.6

114.2

0.6

Ⅲ

5,765

4.8

465

16.6

5,300

3.9

106.3

-4.7

Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ

7,538

16.7

1,184

89.9

6,353

8.8

122.0

5.9

7,749

21.1

691

8.4

7,058

22.5

118.3

18.2

Ⅱ

8,584

23.7

542

-5.8

8,042

26.3

134.5

17.8

Ⅲ Ⅳp

7,568

31.3

461

-0.9

7,107

34.1

128.2

20.6

7,868

4.4

545

-54.0

7,323

15.3

124.4

2.0

2016 1

1,662

-28.8

-39.0

1,591

-28.3

97.0

-6.6

2,282

22.9

255

80.7

2,027

18.1

90.7

-8.4

2,454

8.2

312

110.8

2,142

1.0

112.7

-7.7

2,006

-27.6

188

48.7

1,817

-31.3

111.0

-2.5

2,210

5.2

175

-11.3

2,035

6.9

110.6

2.5

2,727

26.3

213

25.6

2,514

26.3

121.1

2.1

2,030

1.0

-64.6

1,983

5.7

105.0

-12.6

1,672

2.5

-47.3

1,588

7.9

109.8

3.3

2,063

11.0

334

214.8

1,729

-1.4

104.0

-4.0

1,825

-8.7

-35.2

1,761

-7.4

109.3

-3.3

2,339

18.8

154

-32.6

2,186

25.5

118.8

10.2

3,374

35.4

967

224.7

2,406

9.6

138.0

10.5

2017 1

2,144

29.0

122

72.5

2,021

27.0

107.0

10.3

2,464

8.0

226

-11.1

2,237

10.4

108.5

19.6

3,142

28.0

342

9.8

2,800

30.7

139.3

23.4

2,777

38.5

241

28.1

2,536

39.5

127.0

14.4

2,588

17.1

117

-33.1

2,471

21.4

132.8

20.1

3,219

18.1

184

-13.5

3,035

20.7

143.7

18.7

2,799

37.9

296

526.3

2,504

26.3

131.1

24.9

2,357

41.0

-3.2

2,276

43.3

123.5

12.5

2,412

16.9

-74.8

2,327

34.6

130.0

25.0

2,351

28.9

167

162.8

2,185

24.0

105.0

-3.9

2,936

25.5

137

-11.0

2,799

28.1

126.8

6.7

12p

2,581

-23.5

242

-75.0

2,340

-2.8

141.4

2.5

2018 1p

2,449

14.3

253

107.4

2,196

8.6

131.1

22.5

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

March 2018

6. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won)

Period

Total

Value of construction completed Public Private

y-o-y change (%)

Total

y-o-y change (%)

Domestic construction orders received Public Private

y-o-y change (%)

2015

102,614

4.2

31,034

-3.1

67,349

7.9

134,493

48.4

28,546

8.0

103,185

2016

119,971

16.9

30,916

-0.4

83,680

24.2

145,386

8.1

33,832

18.5

107,748

4.4

2017p

138,501

15.3

30,138

-2.5

104,688

25.1

140,780

-3.2

33,404

-1.3

102,327

-5.0

66.1

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

21,925

1.1

6,681

-6.5

14,482

5.9

25,470

57.8

4,599

-22.4

20,586

110.9

25,735

-1.7

8,286

-4.9

16,451

-0.4

35,382

49.8

8,962

36.5

25,902

55.0

Ⅲ

25,420

7.7

7,247

0.0

17,164

11.7

36,494

50.6

4,899

-5.5

30,869

67.9

Ⅳ

29,534

9.3

8,820

-1.0

19,252

14.2

37,148

39.6

10,087

15.2

25,829

49.7

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ

24,533

11.9

6,710

0.4

16,512

14.0

28,922

13.6

7,753

68.6

20,458

-0.6

29,977

16.5

8,099

-2.3

20,494

24.6

32,790

-7.3

5,565

-37.9

26,702

3.1

Ⅲ

29,573

16.3

7,061

-2.6

21,226

23.7

36,709

0.6

7,914

61.5

26,985

-12.6

Ⅳ

35,889

21.5

9,046

2.6

25,778

32.2

46,966

26.4

12,600

24.9

33,603

30.1

2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ

30,579

24.6

6,937

3.4

22,598

36.9

29,273

1.2

7,290

-6.0

17,914

-12.4

35,562

18.6

8,075

-0.3

26,575

29.7

38,675

17.9

7,542

35.5

30,375

13.8

34,841

17.8

6,880

-2.6

27,103

27.7

32,958

-10.2

6,986

-11.7

25,830

-4.3

37,519

4.5

8,246

-8.8

28,411

11.6

39,874

-15.1

11,585

-8.1

28,209

-16.1

2016 1

7,509

6.4

2,045

-1.1

5,144

7.9

7,335

-2.5

2,687

102.9

4,371

-28.1

7,424

8.1

1,976

-6.8

5,086

12.3

9,994

84.0

2,354

106.4

7,559

79.5

9,600

20.0

2,689

7.8

6,282

21.1

11,593

-7.4

2,712

27.1

8,528

-17.2

9,027

14.0

2,317

-7.1

6,299

23.2

10,848

19.2

1,185

-53.9

9,295

43.6

9,347

16.9

2,326

-1.4

6,611

24.3

9,658

-23.6

2,127

-10.2

7,412

-27.1

11,603

18.1

3,456

0.6

7,585

26.0

12,284

-9.9

2,254

-44.0

9,995

8.0

9,545

17.8

2,256

-2.4

6,914

25.2

12,006

38.3

2,626

46.6

8,513

25.0

9,832

21.0

2,344

5.4

7,109

27.0

13,329

52.0

3,362

75.1

9,464

44.7

10,195

10.9

2,460

-9.2

7,203

19.2

11,374

-40.3

1,925

62.2

9,008

-48.6

34.1

Ⅲ Ⅳp

10,473

20.2

2,348

2.4

7,692

27.3

14,793

42.4

3,209

78.0

11,509

11,458

28.9

2,779

12.7

8,224

36.5

12,624

-4.7

2,792

-14.5

9,729

3.3

13,959

17.0

3,920

-3.5

9,532

32.7

19,548

44.6

6,600

31.5

12,365

58.0

2017 1

8,986

19.7

1,970

-3.6

6,682

29.9

8,527

16.3

2,246

-16.4

6,277

43.6

9,593

29.2

2,129

7.7

7,186

41.3

12,350

23.6

3,091

31.3

5,912

-21.8

12,000

25.0

2,838

5.5

8,730

39.0

8,397

-27.6

1,953

-28.0

5,725

-32.9

11,229

24.4

2,302

-0.7

8,639

37.2

14,647

35.0

2,122

79.1

11,915

28.2

11,253

20.4

2,429

4.4

8,542

29.2

11,450

18.6

1,486

-30.1

9,906

33.6

13,080

12.7

3,344

-3.2

9,394

23.9

12,578

2.4

3,934

74.6

8,554

-14.4

11,204

17.4

2,233

-1.0

8,709

26.0

8,470

-29.4

1,811

-31.0

6,638

-22.0

11,104

12.9

2,075

-11.5

8,780

23.5

12,745

-4.4

3,031

-9.8

9,701

2.5

12,534

22.9

2,572

4.6

9,614

33.5

11,743

3.2

2,144

11.4

9,491

5.4

10,829

3.4

2,175

-7.3

8,409

9.3

8,258

-44.2

905

-71.8

7,330

-36.3

12,137

5.9

2,456

-11.6

9,393

14.2

11,129

-11.8

2,306

-17.4

8,805

-9.5

12p

14,553

4.3

3,615

-7.8

10,609

11.3

20,486

4.8

8,374

26.9

12,075

-2.4

10,774

19.9

2,056

4.3

8,492

27.1

11,152

30.8

1,234

-45.1

5,704

-9.1

2018 1p

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

7. Composite indices of business cycle indicators, CSI and BSI Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2015=100)

CSI1

98.4

99.9

99.0

100.2

100.7

99.1

99.0

100.7

99.6

100.9

99.9

Period

Leading index (2015=100)

Cyclical indicator of leading index (2015=100)

Coincident index (2015=100)

2015 1

97.8

100.6

98.2

100.6

98.6

BOK BSI2 Results

Prospects

102.1

102.8

100.1

101.0

99.4

100.1

103.6

99.2

99.7

104.9

100.8

99.3

99.5

98.0

100.2

100.7

99.6

99.5

99.9

100.5

100.6

100.1

99.8

101.2

101.0

100.8

100.9

100.3

102.3

101.5

100.8

101.6

100.7

104.7

101.8

100.7

101.6

100.5

105.4

101.9

100.5

101.9

100.4

102.2

2016 1

102.0

100.1

101.8

100.1

99.7

102.0

99.7

101.9

99.9

97.5

102.2

99.6

102.0

99.8

99.6

102.6

99.6

102.3

99.7

101.2

103.0

99.6

102.7

99.9

98.8

103.3

99.5

103.2

100.1

98.4

103.7

99.6

103.7

100.3

100.6

104.3

99.8

104.0

100.3

101.5

104.9

100.0

104.0

100.1

101.4

105.4

100.1

104.1

99.9

101.7

105.7

100.1

104.5

100.0

95.3

106.3

100.2

105.0

100.2

93.6

2017 1

106.8

100.3

105.6

100.5

92.8

107.3

100.4

105.8

100.5

93.9

107.7

100.4

106.3

100.7

96.3

108.2

100.6

106.6

100.7

100.8

108.8

100.8

106.9

100.7

107.7

109.5

101.0

107.0

100.6

110.8

110.0

101.2

107.2

100.5

110.9

110.4

101.1

107.4

100.4

109.6

110.5

100.9

107.7

100.4

107.4

110.8

100.8

107.7

100.2

108.9

11p

111.1

100.7

108.0

100.2

112.0

12 2018 1p

111.4

100.7

107.9

99.8

110.6

112.0

100.8

108.3

99.9

109.9

108.2

1. Consumer Sentiment Index 2. Business Survey Index (manufacturing, seasonally adjusted) p: Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea

March 2018

8. Prices

Period

All items

y-o-y change (%)

Consumer prices (2015=100) Commodities Services y-o-y change (%)

Core

y-o-y change (%)

Producer prices (2010=100) All items Commodities y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2015

100.0

0.7

100.0

-0.7

100.0

1.8

100.0

2.2

101.0

-4.0

98.0

-6.4

2016

101.0

1.0

99.4

-0.6

102.3

2.3

101.6

1.6

99.1

-1.8

94.6

-3.4

2017

102.9

1.9

101.3

1.9

104.3

2.0

103.1

1.5

102.5

3.5

99.0

4.6

99.8

1.0

100.6

0.1

99.1

1.7

99.4

2.6

101.9

-3.6

99.7

-5.8

2015 1 2

99.7

0.6

100.4

-0.6

99.2

1.7

99.5

2.4

101.9

-3.6

99.7

-5.8

99.7

0.5

100.1

-1.0

99.4

1.7

99.6

2.2

101.8

-3.7

99.5

-5.9

99.8

0.4

99.8

-1.1

99.7

1.6

99.6

2.1

101.8

-3.6

99.3

-5.8

100.0

0.6

100.3

-0.8

99.8

1.6

99.9

2.1

101.8

-3.5

99.3

-5.7

100.1

0.7

100.4

-0.4

99.8

1.6

99.9

2.0

101.8

-3.6

99.3

-5.8

100.2

0.7

100.0

-0.8

100.4

2.0

100.2

2.1

101.4

-4.0

98.6

-6.4

100.4

0.7

100.1

-0.9

100.6

2.0

100.3

2.1

100.8

-4.5

97.7

-7.1

100.1

0.5

99.8

-1.3

100.4

1.9

100.2

2.0

100.3

-4.6

97.0

-7.3

100.1

0.8

99.6

-0.7

100.6

2.1

100.4

2.2

99.7

-4.6

96.0

-7.4

99.9

0.8

99.3

-0.7

100.5

2.0

100.4

2.2

99.3

-4.7

95.3

-7.6

100.2

1.1

99.7

-0.2

100.7

2.2

100.6

2.3

99.0

-4.0

95.0

-6.6

2016 1

100.4

0.6

99.2

-1.4

101.3

2.3

101.0

1.6

98.5

-3.3

94.0

-5.7

100.8

1.1

99.9

-0.5

101.6

2.5

101.2

1.7

98.5

-3.4

93.9

-5.9

100.6

0.8

99.1

-1.0

101.8

2.4

101.3

1.7

98.4

-3.3

93.8

-5.7

100.8

1.0

99.3

-0.5

101.9

2.3

101.5

1.9

98.7

-3.0

94.1

-5.2

100.8

0.8

99.1

-1.2

102.2

2.4

101.7

1.8

98.8

-3.0

94.3

-5.1

100.8

0.7

99.1

-1.3

102.2

2.4

101.8

1.8

99.0

-2.7

94.6

-4.7

100.6

0.4

98.2

-1.8

102.6

2.1

101.5

1.3

98.9

-2.5

94.4

-4.3

100.9

0.5

98.5

-1.6

102.8

2.2

101.6

1.3

99.0

-1.8

94.4

-3.4

101.5

1.3

100.0

0.3

102.6

2.2

101.7

1.5

99.2

-1.1

94.7

-2.4

101.6

1.5

100.3

0.8

102.7

2.1

102.1

1.8

99.5

-0.1

95.0

-1.0

101.5

1.5

100.1

0.8

102.6

2.1

102.0

1.6

100.0

0.7

95.7

0.4

101.6

1.3

100.1

0.4

102.8

2.0

101.9

1.2

100.9

1.8

97.0

2.2

2017 1

102.4

2.0

101.1

1.9

103.5

2.2

102.5

1.5

102.3

3.9

99.0

5.3

102.8

1.9

101.6

1.7

103.7

2.1

102.7

1.5

102.7

4.3

99.5

6.0

102.8

2.2

101.5

2.4

103.9

2.1

102.8

1.4

102.7

4.3

99.3

5.9

102.7

1.9

100.8

1.6

104.1

2.2

102.8

1.3

102.4

3.8

99.0

5.1

102.8

2.0

101.0

2.0

104.2

2.0

103.1

1.4

102.2

3.4

98.5

4.4

102.7

1.9

100.9

1.8

104.1

1.9

103.2

1.4

101.8

2.8

97.8

3.4

102.9

2.2

100.8

2.7

104.5

1.9

103.3

1.8

101.9

3.0

97.9

3.7

103.5

2.6

102.0

3.6

104.7

1.8

103.4

1.8

102.3

3.3

98.5

4.4

103.6

2.1

102.5

2.4

104.5

1.8

103.3

1.6

103.0

3.8

99.5

5.1

103.4

1.8

101.8

1.5

104.7

2.0

103.5

1.3

103.1

3.6

99.6

4.8

102.7

1.3

100.6

0.5

104.4

1.8

103.2

1.2

103.0

3.1

99.4

3.9

103.0

1.5

101.1

1.0

104.6

1.8

103.4

1.5

103.1

2.2

99.5

2.5

2018 1 2

103.5 104.3

1.0 1.4

101.5 102.7

0.5 1.1

105.0 105.5

1.4 1.7

103.6 104.0

1.1 1.2

103.6 104.0

1.2 1.3

99.9 100.4

0.9 0.9

Source: Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

9. Employment (I) Economically active persons (thousands)

Period

y-o-y change

Economically inactive persons (thousands)

y-o-y change

Labor force rate participation rate Employment (%) (%)

Unemployment rate (%)

2015

27,153

318

16,086

127

62.8

60.5

3.6

2016

27,418

265

16,187

102

62.9

60.6

3.7

2017

27,748

329

16,183

-5

63.2

60.8

3.7

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

26,630

390

16,449

61.8

59.3

4.1

27,382

310

15,813

144

63.4

61.0

3.8

Ⅲ

27,395

283

15,902

154

63.3

61.1

3.4

Ⅳ

27,207

288

16,180

132

62.7

60.8

3.1

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ

26,896

266

16,576

127

61.9

59.2

4.3

27,578

197

15,991

178

63.3

60.9

3.7

Ⅲ

27,702

308

15,950

63.5

61.2

3.5

Ⅳ

27,497

289

16,233

62.9

60.9

3.2

2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ

27,262

366

16,556

-20

62.2

59.6

4.3

27,993

414

15,906

-85

63.8

61.3

3.8

Ⅲ

27,961

259

16,006

63.6

61.4

3.4

Ⅳ

27,775

278

16,263

63.1

61.0

3.2

2016 1

26,631

251

16,808

148

61.3

59.0

3.7

26,925

254

16,546

136

61.9

58.9

4.9

27,133

293

16,373

62.4

59.7

4.2

27,398

195

16,138

186

62.9

60.5

3.9

27,617

164

15,955

213

63.4

61.1

3.6

27,720

233

15,880

136

63.6

61.3

3.6

27,737

202

15,889

159

63.6

61.3

3.5

27,690

396

15,962

-40

63.4

61.2

3.6

27,679

325

15,998

63.4

61.1

3.5

27,666

307

16,038

63.3

61.2

3.3

27,613

315

16,117

63.1

61.2

3.1

12 2017 1

27,211

246

16,544

62.2

60.2

3.2

26,886

255

16,904

61.4

59.1

3.7

27,321

396

16,497

-49

62.4

59.3

4.9

27,579

446

16,267

-107

62.9

60.3

4.1

27,911

513

15,960

-179

63.6

61.0

4.2

27,987

370

15,916

-39

63.7

61.5

3.6

28,081

360

15,844

-36

63.9

61.5

3.8

28,037

299

15,909

63.8

61.6

3.4

27,903

214

16,064

102

63.5

61.2

3.6

27,943

263

16,044

63.5

61.4

3.3

27,920

254

16,095

63.4

61.4

3.2

27,889

276

16,151

63.3

61.4

3.1

12 2018 1

27,516

305

16,543

-1

62.5

60.4

3.3

27,232 27,348

346 27

16,840 16,744

-64 247

61.8 62.0

59.5 59.2

3.7 4.6

Source: Statistics Korea

March 2018

10. Employment (II) Employed persons (thousands)

Period

All industry

y-o-y change

Manufacturing

y-o-y change

SOC & services

y-o-y change

2015

26,178

281

4,604

146

20,222

243

2016

26,409

231

4,584

-21

20,534

312

2017

26,725

316

4,566

-18

20,857

323

2015 Ⅰ Ⅱ

25,543

333

4,538

130

19,907

293

26,341

250

4,584

128

20,247

250

Ⅲ

26,465

239

4,632

162

20,334

188

Ⅳ

26,362

300

4,664

164

20,402

240

2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ

25,747

204

4,650

113

20,051

144

26,552

211

4,599

20,530

283

Ⅲ

26,719

255

4,540

-92

20,763

429

Ⅳ

26,618

256

4,545

-119

20,792

390

2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ

26,100

353

4,530

-120

20,546

494

26,919

367

4,579

-21

20,913

383

Ⅲ

26,998

279

4,570

20,986

223

Ⅳ

26,883

265

4,586

20,986

194

2016 1

25,646

254

4,673

127

20,056

199

25,615

145

4,648

19,984

104

25,980

214

4,630

111

20,113

129

26,325

172

4,601

20,350

210

26,613

182

4,608

20,566

255

26,718

278

4,588

-6

20,674

385

26,765

227

4,564

-85

20,797

425

26,696

327

4,519

-97

20,759

493

26,697

209

4,538

-94

20,733

370

26,746

227

4,547

-125

20,759

399

26,762

293

4,549

-112

20,841

377

12 2017 1

26,347

249

4,541

-120

20,775

393

25,878

232

4,503

-170

20,462

406

25,979

364

4,549

-99

20,453

469

26,443

463

4,539

-91

20,721

608

26,744

420

4,542

-60

20,842

492

26,992

379

4,586

-22

20,963

396

27,020

302

4,608

20,933

260

27,078

314

4,611

21,037

240

26,904

208

4,544

20,922

162

27,011

314

4,555

20,999

266

27,026

281

4,560

21,008

249

27,019

257

4,581

21,061

220

26,604

257

4,618

20,888

113

2018 1 2

26,213 26,083

334 104

4,609 4,562

106 14

20,596 20,503

134 49

Source: Statistics Korea

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

11. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)

Period

Current account

Goods

2015

105,939.6

2016

99,243.0

2017 2015 Ⅰ

Services

Primary income

Secondary income

420,612.0

-14,916.8

3,572.4

-4,985.2

393,051.9

-17,737.4

3,851.7

-5,766.7

577,381.4

457,492.7

-34,472.2

122.0

-7,078.3

131,427.3

106,911.2

-4,111.1

4,067.5

-1,250.5

33,667.7

142,086.3

108,418.6

-3,037.3

-2,479.2

-1,199.8

28,246.3

31,319.2

133,550.1

102,230.9

-3,736.1

1,515.2

-852.0

Ⅳ

27,519.9

32,766.2

135,817.5

103,051.3

-4,032.3

468.9

-1,682.9

2016 Ⅰ

26,961.1

30,209.1

118,983.8

88,774.7

-3,658.5

1,381.7

-971.2

Ⅱ

27,040.2

33,174.8

127,574.7

94,399.9

-4,204.5

-717.5

-1,212.6

Ⅲ

22,563.8

28,184.0

128,614.1

100,430.1

-5,549.4

2,324.6

-2,395.4

Ⅳ

22,677.9

27,327.5

136,774.7

109,447.2

-4,325.0

862.9

-1,187.5

2017p Ⅰ Ⅱ

19,203.3

27,307.0

139,316.9

112,009.9

-8,662.7

1,374.8

-815.8

16,451.5

29,561.1

143,112.7

113,551.6

-6,748.6

-4,876.8

-1,484.2

Ⅲ

25,570.0

34,750.3

148,862.8

114,112.5

-8,497.5

1,946.9

-2,629.7

Ⅳ

17,235.4

28,270.3

146,089.0

117,818.7

-10,563.4

1,677.1

-2,148.6

2016 1

7,619.3

8,432.7

37,290.7

28,858.0

-1,619.8

1,264.2

-457.8

7,983.6

8,256.2

36,511.5

28,255.3

-1,164.6

871.4

20.6

11,358.2

13,520.2

45,181.6

31,661.4

-874.1

-753.9

-534.0

4,262.0

10,108.6

40,463.3

30,354.7

-1,730.5

-3,593.3

-522.8

10,516.0

10,466.1

42,129.5

31,663.4

-1,161.3

1,358.1

-146.9

12,262.2

12,600.1

44,981.9

32,381.8

-1,312.7

1,517.7

-542.9

8,829.3

10,650.0

42,583.8

31,933.8

-1,461.2

266.1

-625.6

5,666.0

7,058.6

41,815.7

34,757.1

-1,475.8

1,034.0

-950.8

8,068.5

10,475.4

44,214.6

33,739.2

-2,612.4

1,024.5

-819.0

7,694.9

9,164.6

43,086.8

33,922.2

-1,785.6

707.1

-391.2

8,028.0

9,690.2

46,258.7

36,568.5

-1,813.9

366.3

-214.6

Exports

Imports

122,269.2

542,811.2

118,895.4

511,947.3

78,460.2

119,888.7

23,222.0

24,516.1

Ⅱ

26,951.4

Ⅲ

6,955.0

8,472.7

47,429.2

38,956.5

-725.5

-210.5

-581.7

2017p 1

5,299.8

7,731.1

44,531.6

36,800.5

-3,340.7

1,176.5

-267.1

8,181.8

10,220.2

44,626.2

34,406.0

-2,210.3

718.9

-547.0

5,721.7

9,355.7

50,159.1

40,803.4

-3,111.7

-520.6

-1.7

3,670.0

11,542.1

48,134.6

36,592.5

-2,417.2

-4,924.3

-530.6

5,841.7

8,595.9

46,956.0

38,360.1

-1,638.7

-595.7

-519.8

6,939.8

9,423.1

48,022.1

38,599.0

-2,692.7

643.2

-433.8

7,249.7

10,587.4

47,101.1

36,513.7

-3,285.3

676.0

-728.4

6,032.8

9,184.3

47,687.2

38,502.9

-2,334.6

22.6

-839.5

12,287.5

14,978.6

54,074.5

39,095.9

-2,877.6

1,248.3

-1,061.8

5,715.5

8,597.4

44,429.8

35,832.4

-3,531.3

1,168.1

-518.7

7,427.6

11,461.0

51,480.4

40,019.4

-3,266.1

-72.2

-695.1

4,092.3

8,211.9

50,178.8

41,966.9

-3,766.0

581.2

-934.8

2018p 1

2,680.4

8,108.8

52,069.7

43,960.9

-4,494.1

678.5

-1,612.8

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

March 2018

12. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)

Period

Financial account*

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

2015

106,299.2

19,656.3

2016

102,566.8

17,856.7

Capital account

Financial derivatives

Other investment

Reserve assets

49,529.8

1,791.3

23,269.2

12,052.6

-60.2

66,970.2

-3,440.1

13,564.8

7,615.2

-46.2

2017

87,100.4

14,623.0

57,847.4

-8,253.3

18,523.3

4,360.0

-31.3

2015 Ⅰ

22,974.3

4,328.8

7,743.0

-726.3

4,518.7

7,110.1

-22.0

Ⅱ

25,857.1

6,256.2

7,111.1

-759.5

5,947.4

7,301.9

-25.6

Ⅲ

29,806.1

3,695.1

15,559.7

4,731.1

10,106.9

-4,286.7

-26.2

Ⅳ

27,661.7

5,376.2

19,116.0

-1,454.0

2,696.2

1,927.3

13.6

2016 Ⅰ

29,486.0

5,704.8

16,794.1

2,724.0

5,596.8

-1,333.7

-8.1

Ⅱ

23,327.5

4,507.8

13,981.8

-1,185.3

5,103.8

919.4

-7.0

Ⅲ

24,822.1

1,847.5

15,865.5

-3,799.5

3,949.4

6,959.2

13.9 -45.0

Ⅳ

24,931.2

5,796.6

20,328.8

-1,179.3

-1,085.2

1,070.3

2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ

19,741.1

6,881.2

8,011.4

-2,951.0

7,063.2

736.3

36.4

13,043.4

3,476.4

11,516.2

-2,066.8

-96.6

214.2

-60.3

Ⅲ

30,844.5

4,428.9

23,972.0

-350.9

2,945.8

-151.3

-7.7

Ⅳ

23,471.4

-163.5

14,347.8

-2,884.6

8,610.9

3,560.8

0.3

2016 1

7,326.7

208.1

5,412.9

1,227.8

117.7

360.2

-2.6

9,715.9

2,187.2

5,749.6

756.6

2,613.5

-1,591.0

-2.3

12,443.4

3,309.5

5,631.6

739.6

2,865.6

-102.9

-3.2

1,814.8

814.0

3,277.6

-1,043.5

-2,549.9

1,316.6

-5.0

9,908.3

1,450.2

4,546.1

-463.7

3,974.0

401.7

1.0

11,604.4

2,243.6

6,158.1

321.9

3,679.7

-798.9

-3.0

8,811.4

719.7

145.0

-471.9

6,451.8

1,966.8

5.8

6,960.3

-291.7

7,111.8

-1,292.4

-1,656.4

3,089.0

17.2

9,050.4

1,419.5

8,608.7

-2,035.2

-846.0

1,903.4

-9.1

8,359.1

1,144.8

9,921.6

-739.5

-2,188.1

220.3

-6.3

8,505.8

62.6

7,011.4

83.0

1,865.9

-517.1

-35.0

8,066.3

4,589.2

3,395.8

-522.8

-763.0

1,367.1

-3.7

2017p 1

5,067.0

3,270.3

4,917.9

-146.9

-3,232.5

258.2

40.1

8,880.5

4,344.1

809.9

-1,593.2

5,471.3

-151.6

-2.0

5,793.6

-733.2

2,283.6

-1,210.9

4,824.4

629.7

-1.7

1,471.6

1,500.3

2,810.3

-912.4

-1,755.7

-170.9

-26.2

2,642.6

685.3

5,660.3

-413.3

-3,368.2

78.5

-2.0

8,929.2

1,290.8

3,045.6

-741.1

5,027.3

306.6

-32.1

9,442.0

460.0

2,693.6

-79.2

6,238.7

128.9

15.3

8,990.9

1,622.4

11,330.5

-161.3

-4,147.6

346.9

-21.8

12,411.6

2,346.5

9,947.9

-110.4

854.7

-627.1

-1.2

8,436.4

72.6

-173.2

-555.6

7,665.6

1,427.0

-7.4

10,438.0

-70.6

2,101.7

-877.1

7,914.5

1,369.5

38.8

6,347.0

-165.5

12,419.3

-1,451.9

-5,219.2

764.3

-31.1

2018p 1

4,112.7

138.6

3,490.7

-1,285.9

329.0

1,440.3

-6.5

* Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

13. Financial indicators (period average)

Yields (%) Period 2014 7 8 9 10 11 12 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 Source: Bank of Korea

Call rate (1 day)

CDs (91 days)

Treasury bonds (3 years)

2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5

2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7

2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3

Stock Treasury bonds (5 years)

Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)

KOSPI (end-period)

2.8 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5

3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8

2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59 1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17 2,114.80 2,074.20 2,030.16 1,941.49 1,962.81 2,029.47 1,991.97 1,961.31 1,912.06 1,916.66 1,995.85 1,994.15 1,983.40 1,970.35 2,016.19 2,034.65 2,043.63 2,008.19 1,983.48 2,026.46 2,067.57 2,091.64 2,160.23 2,205.44 2,347.38 2,391.79 2,402.71 2,363.19 2,394.47 2,523.43 2,476.37 2,467.49 2,566.46 2,427.36

March 2018

14. Monetary indicators (period average, billion won)

Reserve money Period

y-o-y change (%)

M2 y-o-y change (%)

Lf y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2014

103,331.5

13.1

536,733.4

10.9

2,009,576.3

6.6

2,721,502.2

7.0

2015

120,691.4

16.8

636,639.0

18.6

2,182,911.9

8.6

2,986,699.4

9.7

2016

137,441.5

13.9

734,411.8

15.4

2,342,621.3

7.3

3,229,766.4

8.1

2017

151,858.1

10.5

802,016.5

9.2

2,471,225.6

5.5

3,445,645.8

6.7

2015 1

113,304.2

15.0

579,964.2

12.5

2,092,223.5

8.0

2,857,610.1

8.4

116,502.4

15.9

592,737.4

14.3

2,109,892.3

8.0

2,876,467.8

8.6

115,974.9

15.3

600,719.9

15.5

2,127,887.8

8.3

2,907,976.4

9.3

115,132.7

16.4

610,803.3

17.7

2,148,114.7

9.0

2,936,746.7

10.0

117,726.3

15.7

621,985.5

18.9

2,166,741.1

9.3

2,960,998.1

10.3

118,688.2

17.0

630,546.3

18.5

2,179,561.1

9.0

2,986,316.5

10.5

122,041.0

20.6

645,975.4

21.0

2,200,510.9

9.3

3,013,503.9

10.6

121,854.4

13.2

653,105.9

21.3

2,218,660.3

9.2

3,028,981.1

10.4

126,572.2

20.1

665,691.1

21.4

2,230,000.7

9.4

3,049,823.2

10.5 10.2

125,616.2

17.3

669,737.7

21.5

2,232,432.0

8.8

3,059,051.9

126,767.1

18.8

677,629.2

20.6

2,242,848.2

7.7

3,076,029.2

9.2

128,117.5

16.3

690,772.4

19.6

2,246,070.1

7.5

3,086,887.8

8.9

2016 1

131,279.3

15.9

699,767.3

20.7

2,261,356.4

8.1

3,110,535.8

8.9

134,913.0

15.8

708,014.0

19.4

2,285,313.5

8.3

3,133,492.2

8.9

132,957.9

14.6

713,861.2

18.8

2,294,544.7

7.8

3,158,687.8

8.6

135,038.9

17.3

720,818.5

18.0

2,299,081.3

7.0

3,170,277.9

8.0

135,971.3

15.5

722,544.4

16.2

2,312,801.2

6.7

3,189,899.3

7.7

135,758.4

14.4

730,637.8

15.9

2,334,256.2

7.1

3,223,154.5

7.9

135,906.7

11.4

735,172.2

13.8

2,352,245.1

6.9

3,242,338.3

7.6

139,073.9

14.1

738,120.9

13.0

2,377,323.1

7.2

3,270,365.6

8.0

142,079.6

12.3

751,408.5

12.9

2,383,040.5

6.9

3,288,026.0

7.8

141,103.5

12.3

753,367.3

12.5

2,391,059.2

7.1

3,305,950.4

8.1

141,757.2

11.8

762,639.7

12.5

2,406,393.5

7.3

3,328,489.7

8.2

143,458.7

12.0

776,589.6

12.4

2,414,040.9

7.5

3,337,069.4

8.1

2017 1

147,380.8

12.3

780,995.5

11.6

2,417,635.8

6.9

3,359,110.8

8.0

150,092.9

11.3

776,362.5

9.7

2,420,285.6

5.9

3,365,200.1

7.4

145,049.0

9.1

789,187.8

10.6

2,436,994.7

6.2

3,387,986.2

7.3

149,630.1

10.8

791,859.3

9.9

2,450,220.9

6.6

3,404,957.2

7.4

149,446.2

9.9

791,074.8

9.5

2,454,386.7

6.1

3,416,320.2

7.1

150,519.7

10.9

798,890.2

9.3

2,470,861.1

5.9

3,440,571.4

6.7

149,955.1

10.3

804,853.4

9.5

2,472,110.4

5.1

3,454,563.6

6.5

152,170.5

9.4

805,103.3

9.1

2,485,629.9

4.6

3,472,041.5

6.2

154,578.6

8.8

810,905.0

7.9

2,492,388.4

4.6

3,483,119.8

5.9

159,248.2

12.9

826,892.1

9.8

2,504,594.2

4.7

3,501,084.6

5.9

155,623.3

9.8

817,624.5

7.2

2,521,786.3

4.8

3,521,139.1

5.8

12 2018 1

158,603.1 157,220.1

10.6 6.7

830,003.7 830,732.8

6.9 6.3

2,527,641.3 2,551,196.0

4.7 5.5

3,541,083.2 3,572,537.9

6.1 6.4

Source: Bank of Korea

Economic Bulletin

Statistical Appendices

15. Exchange rates (end-period)

US $/\ Period 2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 Source: Bank of Korea

100ďżĽ/\

Won

y-o-y change (%)

1,099.2 1,172.0 1,208.5 1,071.4 1,190.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0 1,208.4 1,235.4 1,153.5 1,143.9 1,190.6 1,164.7 1,125.7 1,118.5 1,096.3 1,145.2 1,168.5 1,208.5 1,157.8 1,132.1 1,116.1 1,130.1 1,123.9 1,139.6 1,119.1 1,122.8 1,146.7 1,125.0 1,082.4 1,071.4 1,071.5 1,071.0

4.2 6.6 3.1 -11.3 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6 10.8 12.4 4.4 7.1 7.5 3.6 -3.5 -4.9 -8.2 0.3 1.6 3.1 -4.2 -8.4 -3.2 -1.2 -5.6 -2.2 -0.6 0.4 4.6 -1.8 -7.4 -11.3 -7.5 -5.4

Euro/\

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

920.1 972.0 1,036.8 949.1 921.4 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 994.1 936.7 972.0 1,017.1 1,083.8 1,026.0 1,058.2 1,072.8 1,132.2 1,073.7 1,086.3 1,083.7 1,094.4 1,038.8 1,036.8 1,017.9 1,004.0 998.5 1,016.0 1,014.3 1,017.6 1,012.3 1,017.4 1,020.4 994.2 966.5 949.1 985.0 997.3

-8.4 5.6 6.7 -8.5 -11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6 10.4 17.9 11.5 17.9 19.9 23.4 14.3 12.0 8.7 15.9 10.9 6.7 0.1 -7.5 -2.7 -4.0 -5.4 -10.1 -5.7 -6.3 -5.8 -9.2 -7.0 -8.5 -3.2 -0.7

1,336.5 1,280.5 1,267.6 1,279.3 1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5 1,322.2 1,348.3 1,307.4 1,298.4 1,326.8 1,295.5 1,246.7 1,246.9 1,230.3 1,257.1 1,244.3 1,267.6 1,239.5 1,198.6 1,192.6 1,228.1 1,255.6 1,304.0 1,315.7 1,335.6 1,350.9 1,310.1 1,282.7 1,279.3 1,329.1 1,310.4

-8.2 -4.2 -1.0 0.9 -16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2 7.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.2 2.8 -2.3 -5.3 -8.5 0.2 2.1 -1.0 -6.3 -11.1 -8.8 -5.4 -5.4 0.7 5.5 7.1 9.8 4.2 3.1 0.9 7.2 9.3

Useful websites

Ministry of Strategy and Finance

http://english.mosf.go.kr Korea Development Institute

http://www.kdi.re.kr/kdi_eng Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy

http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission

http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service

http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission

http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Employment and Labor

http://www.moel.go.kr/english Bank of Korea

http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea

http://kostat.go.kr/portal/eng

March 2018

ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

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