ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.37 No.2 February 2015
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.37 No.2 February 2015
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Economic News Briefing Korea Grows 0.4% in Q4 Government to Encourage Employee Stock Ownership Program Corporate Investment Boosting Program Starts February Financial Regulators to Support Fintech
Statistical Appendices
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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February 2015
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
1. External economic situation
04
2. Private consumption
08
3. Facility investment
10
4. Construction investment
13
5. Exports and imports
15
6. Mining and manufacturing production
17
7. Service sector activity
19
8. Employment
21
9. Financial markets
25
9.1 Stock market
25
9.2 Exchange rate
26
9.3 Bond market
27
9.4 Money supply & money market
28
10. Balance of payments
29
11. Prices
32
11.1 Consumer prices
32
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
35
12. Real estate market
37
12.1 Housing market
37
12.2 Land market
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
contents Editor-in-Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) An Il-Whan (MOSF) Editorial Board Choi Jae-Hyuk (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors David Friedman (MOSF) Jeon A-Ram (MOSF)
41
Vol.37 No.2 / February 2015
44 Economic News Briefing Korea Grows 0.4% in Q4 Government to Encourage Employee Stock Ownership Program Corporate Investment Boosting Program Starts February Government Budget for Software Up 23% in 2015 Financial Regulators to Support Fintech Venture Firms Exceed 30,000 for First Time Korea, China Agree to Work on Eurasia Initiative G20 Agrees to Build Confidence and Reaffirms Effective Policy Coordination Korean FDI Down 1.5% in 2014
49 Statistical Appendices
02
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Overview
1. External economic situation
2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports 6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
03
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
OVERVIEW Although inflation remains low, the Korean economy has seen major indicators, such as mining and manufacturing production, retail sales and facility investment, continue to improve and employment keep rising by more than 400,000 jobs. The economy continued to add jobs in December, adding 422,000 jobs year-on-year, with permanent employment continuing to grow. Consumer price inflation remained low in January 2015, rising 0.5 month-on-month and 0.8 percent year-on-year, partly due to a continuous fall in international oil prices. Mining and manufacturing production grew at a faster rate in December from 1.0 percent in the previous month to 3.0 percent as production increased in most industries, particularly automobiles, semiconductors & parts and chemical products, despite weak audio-visual communications equipment. Service output remained unchanged in December after it fell 0.3 percent the previous month. Retail sales continued to rise from 1.8 percent in the previous month to 2.2 percent backed by strong automobiles, communications devices and clothing sales. Facility investment continued to increase in December by 1.7 percent after it soared 13.3 percent the previous month helped by strong transportation equipment investment. Construction completed dropped at a slower rate from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent backed by an increase in civil engineering works.
The composite index of coincident indicators increased 0.3 points in December, and the composite index of leading indicators rose 0.2 points. Exports decreased somewhat year-on-year in January from a 3.6 percent rise to a 0.4 percent fall with low oil prices pushing down oil and petrochemical product prices. The trade balance remained in the black in December, posting a surplus of US $5.53 billion. In January, market interest rates fell while the KOSPI rose. The dollar-won ratio fell and the 100 yen-won ratio rose compared to the previous month. Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase in January, rising 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively. Recovery in domestic consumption has not yet fully taken root despite increasing signs of recovery with related indicators having fluctuated, and the external uncertainties, such as the US rate hike, yen depreciation and high economic anxiety in oil producing countries, warrant close attention. The Korean government will continue to closely monitor internal and external economic trends, and at the same time will prepare the Korean economy for any potential risks and work to protect domestic markets from external shocks. The government will continue to implement the Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation and 2015’s economic policies in order to restructure and revitalize the economy by boosting domestic consumption.
04
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
1. External economic situation The global economic recovery continues to gain momentum, led by the recovery in the US, but downside risks remain as financial market anxieties are arising in oil producing countries and political instability in Greece is leading to increased uncertainties in the eurozone. International financial market volatility is increasing as the ECB announced sweeping quantitative easing measures while a number of countries have lowered their base rates, including Australia, India and Singapore.
World GDP growth 7.0
(%)
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
US The US economy grew 2.6 percent (advanced estimates, annualized q-o-q) in the fourth quarter, a slowdown from the 5.0 percent seen in the third quarter, but growth momentum continues to build backed by strong private consumption. Business indicators were poor as industrial production fell 0.1 percent month-on-month and the ISM Manufacturing Index fell for the third consecutive month to 53.5 in January. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 55.6 (May 2014) → 55.7 (Jun) → 56.4 (Jul) → 58.1 (Aug) → 56.1 (Sep) → 57.9 (Oct) → 57.6 (Nov) → 55.1 (Dec) → 53.5 (Jan 2015)
Retail sales fell 0.9 percent month-on-month in December, but consumer sentiment continued to be strong as consumer confidence indicators all increased. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 81.9 (May 2014) → 82.5 (Jun) → 81.8 (Jul) → 82.5 (Aug) → 84.6 (Sep) → 86.9 (Oct) → 88.8 (Nov) → 93.6 (Dec) → 98.1 (Jan 2015) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 82.2 (May 2014) → 86.4 (Jun) → 90.3 (Jul) → 93.4 (Aug) → 89.0 (Sep) → 94.1 (Oct) → 91.0 (Nov) → 93.1 (Dec) → 102.9 (Jan 2015)
05
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
US GDP growth and industrial production 10
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
(%)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
Despite housing prices falling for the third consecutive month, new and existing home sales both increased month-on-month owing to a fall in mortgage interest rates. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (m-o-m, %) 0.9 (Mar 2014) → 1.2 (Apr) → 1.1 (May) → 1.0 (Jun) → 0.6 (Jul) → 0.2 (Aug) → -0.1 (Sep) → -0.1 (Oct) → -0.2 (Nov) New home sales (m-o-m, %) -6.7 (Mar 2014) → 2.5 (Apr) → 10.9 (May) → -10.7 (Jun) → -2.4 (Jul) → 12.3 (Aug) → 1.8 (Sep) → 1.3 (Oct) → -6.7 (Nov) → 11.6 (Dec)
The employment market slightly improved as the economy added more than 200,000 jobs for the 11th consecutive month with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 257,000 in January, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 5.7 percent as the labor force participation rate rose to 62.9 percent. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 286 (Jun 2014) → 249 (Jul) → 213 (Aug) → 250 (Sep) → 221 (Oct) → 423 (Nov) → 329 (Dec) → 257 (Jan 2015)
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
(%)
(thousands)
600
12 10
400
8
200
0
6
-200
4
-400 -600
2
-800 -1,000
0
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Unemployment rate (right)
06
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual Real GDP² 2.3 2.2 - Personal consumption expenditure 1.8 2.4 - Nonresidential fixed investment 7.2 3.0 - Residential fixed investment 13.5 11.9 Industrial production 3.8 2.9 Retail sales 5.1 4.2 Existing home sales 8.9 8.9 Unemployment rate³ 8.1 7.4 Consumer prices (y-o-y) 2.1 1.5
Q1 2.7 3.6 1.5 7.8 1.0 1.5 0.7 7.7 1.7
2013 Q2 1.8 1.8 1.6 19.0 0.5 0.3 3.5 7.5 1.4
Q3 4.5 2.0 5.5 11.2 0.6 1.0 4.4 7.2 1.5
Q4 3.5 3.7 10.4 -8.5 1.2 0.9 -7.1 7.0 1.2
Q1 -2.1 1.2 1.6 -5.3 1.0 0.2 -6.9 6.7 1.4
Q2 4.6 2.5 9.7 8.8 1.4 2.3 5.7 6.2 2.1
2014¹ Q3 Q4 5.0 2.6 3.2 4.3 8.9 1.9 3.2 4.1 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 5.3 -1.0 6.1 5.7 1.8 1.5
2015 Jan 5.7 0.8
Dec -0.1 -0.9 2.4 5.6 1.3
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
China The Chinese economy grew at a 7.3 percent rate (q-o-q) in the fourth quarter as industrial production and retail sales both slightly improved in December, but inflation continued to slow down and the manufacturing PMI continued to fall. The People’s Bank of China cut financial institutions’ reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points on February 5 for the first time in two years and eight months. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 51.7 (Jul 2014) → 51.1 (Aug) → 51.1 (Sep) → 50.8 (Oct) → 50.3 (Nov) → 50.1 (Dec) → 49.8 (Jan 2015) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012¹ Annual Annual Real GDP 7.7 7.7 Industrial production 10.0 9.7 Fixed asset investment (accumulated) 20.6 19.6 Retail sales 14.3 13.1 Exports 8.3 8.6 Consumer prices² 2.6 2.6 Producer prices² -1.7 -1.9
Q1 7.7 9.5 20.9 12.4 18.9 2.4 -1.7
2013¹ Q2 Q3 7.5 7.8 9.1 10.1 20.1 20.2 13.0 13.3 4.2 4.0 2.4 2.8 -2.7 -1.7
Q4 7.7 10.0 19.6 13.5 7.5 2.9 -1.4
Q1 7.4 8.7 17.6 12.0 -3.5 2.3 -2.0
Q2 7.5 8.9 17.3 12.3 5.0 2.2 -1.5
2014¹ Q3 Q4 7.3 7.3 8.0 7.6 15.7 15.7 11.9 11.7 12.9 8.6 2.0 1.5 -1.3 -2.7
Nov 7.2 15.8 11.7 4.7 1.4 -2.7
Dec 7.9 15.7 11.9 9.7 1.5 -3.3
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 18
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
(%)
(%)
70
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
07
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Japan The Japanese economy appears to be improving as exports greatly improved compared to the previous month and industrial production turned positive, despite continuing poor consumer consumption in December. The Japanese government announced on December 27, 2014 an emergency stimulus package worth 3.5 trillion yen focusing on households, SMEs, and local economies in order to promote economic recovery.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012¹ Annual Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2014¹ Q3 Q4
Nov
Dec
Real GDP
1.8
1.6
1.5
0.7
0.4
-0.4
1.4
-1.7
-0.5
-
-
-
Industrial production
0.2
-0.6
0.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
3.0
-3.8
-1.9
1.7
-0.6
1.0
Retail sales
1.5
1.2
0.7
0.7
0.3
1.4
3.9
-7.0
3.5
0.8
-0.3
-0.3
Exports (y-o-y)
-2.6
9.7
1.5
7.1
12.8
17.4
6.6
0.1
3.2
9.2
4.9
12.8
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
-0.0
0.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
3.6
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.4
1. Preliminary Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6
Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0
-5 -2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6
-25
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
Eurozone Eurozone growth momentum remains weak while political instability in Greece is fueling uncertainties and prices continue to fall (down 0.6% in January), leading to increasing worries of deflation. The ECB strongly responded to Greece’s debt swap plan by canceling its acceptance of Greek government bonds in return for funding. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 52.2 (May 2014) → 51.8 (Jun) → 51.8 (Jul) → 50.7 (Aug) → 50.3 (Sep) → 50.6 (Oct) → 50.1 (Nov) → 50.6 (Dec) → 51.0 (Jan 2015)
08
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual
Annual
Real GDP
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
Industrial production
-2.5
-0.7
0.3
Retail sales
-1.7
-0.8
Exports (y-o-y)
7.6
1.0
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.5
1.4
Q1
2013 Q2
2014¹ Q3
Q4
Dec
2015¹ Jan
0.2
-
-
-
-0.4
-
-
-
0.3
-
-
-
-0.2
-0.6
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.3
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.8
1.0
1.7
0.2
1.0
1.2
0.7
2.9
-
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.2
1. Preliminary Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3
Source: Eurostat
(%)
10
(%)
8
2
6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -10
-3 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
2. Private consumption Private consumption in the fourth quarter of 2014 rose 0.5 percent (advanced estimates of GDP) compared to the previous quarter and 1.4 percent compared to a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
2014¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
1.9
1.2
0.4
2.0
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
1.7
0.2
-0.3
1.0
0.5
-
2.6
2.7
-
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.2
-
2.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
Annual Private consumption² (y-o-y)
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Retail sales in December rose 2.2 percent compared to the previous month and 4.5 percent compared to a year ago as sales of semi-durable goods (up 5.9%), such as clothing, and durable goods (up 3.2%), such as mobile devices and computers, both increased.
09
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Private consumption 12
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
Retail sales 20
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
Retail sales (y-o-y)
Retail sales by type 50
2014.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
Durable goods
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Semi-durable goods
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Nondurable goods
10
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
2014¹ Q3 Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec¹
Retail sales
-
-
0.8
0.3
-
0.3
-0.5
1.4
0.5
0.0
1.8
2.2
(y-o-y)
2.4
0.8
0.7
1.2
1.6
2.5
0.7
1.4
1.9
-0.1
1.0
4.5
- Durable goods²
5.3
0.3
-0.3
0.2
5.1
4.4
-1.1
2.2
1.1
-6.4
7.8
3.2
· Automobiles
2.4
2.1
2.1
-2.1
16.6
12.0
4.6
0.5
3.0
-4.1
9.3
2.7
-0.4 2.0
2.0 0.6
0.9 1.5
-0.8 0.8
-0.8 0.8
-1.5 -1.0
-1.3 0.2
4.8 -0.5
-1.2 1.1
-2.0 4.6
-1.5 0.3
5.9 0.0
- Semi-durable goods³ - Nondurable goods4
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Retail sales growth is likely to slow down in January, despite increasing cellphone sales, as the Lunar New Year holiday, which falls on February this year, had a negative effect on department store and large discount store sales in January. Cellphone service transfers continued to rise owing to the recovery in demand for new cellphones, but domestic car sales growth slowed down somewhat compared to the previous month. Cellphone service transfer sales (thousands, Korea Telecommunications Operators Association) 847 (Jun 2014) → 644 (Jul) → 523 (Aug) → 626 (Sep) → 375 (Oct) → 550 (Nov) → 687 (Dec) → 757 (Jan 2015)
Department store and large discount store sales continued to worsen in January due to the relatively late Lunar New Year holiday (Jan 31, 2014 → Feb 19, 2015), and credit card use growth also slightly fell.
(y-o-y, %)
Jun
Jul
Aug
2014 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 Jan
Credit card use
5.2
5.1
8.6
5.3
7.5
5.3
8.7
3.1
Department store sales
-4.6
2.0
10.5
-6.3
-2.2
-6.5
-0.9
-9.7
Large discount store sales
-5.9
-4.6
3.2
-10.1
-0.9
-4.7
-3.8
-20.7
Domestic sales of gasoline
2.2
0.6
-4.5
0.6
2.0
-2.2
2.5
8.4
Domestic sales of cars
7.5
0.7
-4.8
10.4
2.1
7.0
27.2
3.9
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for January data)
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) rose 5.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 4.2 percent year-onyear in the fourth quarter of 2014.
11
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Facility investment 40
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
30 20 10 0
-10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012 Annual
Annual¹
2013¹ Q3
Q4
Annual¹
Q1¹
2014¹ Q2¹
Q3¹
Q4¹
Facility investment²
0.1
-1.5
2.7
5.6
5.9
-1.9
1.1
-0.5
5.6
(y-o-y)
-
-
1.5
10.9
-
7.3
7.7
4.3
4.2
- Machinery
0.3
-3.5
6.5
3.7
-
-4.9
0.2
2.6
-
- Transportation equipment
-0.4
4.0
-6.5
10.7
-
5.5
3.1
-7.0
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
The facility investment index in December rose 1.7 percent month-on-month helped by strong transportation equipment investment, despite a decrease in machinery investment. The index was up 13.8 percent year-on-year.
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
Transportation equipment
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Machinery
12
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q3 Facility investment index
Q4
Annual¹
Q1
Q2
2014¹ Q3
Q4¹
Nov¹
Dec¹
-2.8
-1.3
5.0
5.9
4.6
-5.2
2.1
-0.9
9.2
13.3
1.7
-
-
2.7
10.4
-
5.9
6.2
1.5
5.1
10.6
13.8
- Machinery
-2.7
-2.6
4.5
7.3
2.8
-8.6
1.5
-0.5
13.2
12.4
-2.0
- Transportation equipment
-3.0
2.3
6.4
2.5
9.7
4.7
3.4
-2.1
-0.1
15.8
12.0
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Facility investment may slow down following a surge in the fourth quarter and given weakening business sentiment. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 86 (May 2014) → 81 (Jun) →78 (Jul) → 75 (Aug) → 74 (Sep) → 78 (Oct) → 74 (Nov) → 75 (Dec) → 77 (Jan 2015) → 73 (Feb)
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10 9
(trillion won)
70 60 50
(y-o-y, %)
40
8
30
7
20
6
10 0
5
-10 -20
4
-30 -40 -50
3 2 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
2014.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012 Annual Annual Domestic machinery orders
2013 Q3
Q4
Annual¹
Q1
Q2
2014¹ Q3
Q4¹
Nov1
Dec1
-13.9
6.7
2.2
32.4
15.3
17.9
4.4
50.2
-4.7
11.7
6.3
-
-
-6.9
27.7
-
-2.8
-9.6
38.2
-21.1
30.3
-22.6
-Public
-11.0
20.5
-9.7
129.7
94.1
184.6
-45.0
418.5
-28.0
162.6
9.5
-Private
-14.2
5.2
3.8
22.1
5.4
4.1
9.6
8.6
-0.1
-0.9
6.1
Machinery imports
-3.0
1.1
6.8
13.2
5.8
2.4
11.7
1.6
7.0
18.8
18.4
Average manufacturing operation ratio
78.5
76.2
75.1
76.5
76.0
77.2
76.3
75.8
74.6
74.2
76.2
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-0.7
-1.4
-1.7
0.1
-1.4
-0.6
-0.9
-0.3
-3.7
-5.1
-1.1
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
13
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2014 fell 9.2 percent quarteron-quarter and 1.8 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012¹ Annual Annual Construction investment²
2013¹ Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1¹
2014¹ Q2¹
Q3¹
Q4¹
-3.9
6.7
0.2
-5.2
1.1
5.1
0.4
2.5
-9.2
-
-
8.8
5.4
-
4.3
0.2
2.6
-1.8
- Building construction
-1.6
8.8
0.5
-4.0
-
5.1
2.3
3.3
-
- Civil engineering works
-7.1
3.7
-0.1
-6.9
-
5.1
-2.5
1.3
-
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction investment
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%) 10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
The value of construction completed (constant) in December, despite an increase in civil engineering works, fell 0.8 percent month-on-month as building construction declined. The index fell 3.2 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q3 Construction completed (constant)
-5.0
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
2014¹ Q3
Q4
Nov¹
Dec¹
-0.8
1.5
0.2
-3.2
-4.5
-1.3
-0.8
10.1
-0.1
-0.7
(y-o-y)
-
-
10.5
9.7
-
6.5
0.1
-1.9
-5.9
-9.2
-3.2
- Building construction
-6.6
14.8
0.4
2.9
7.8
6.0
2.9
-5.5
-3.9
-0.1
-2.7
- Civil engineering works
-3.0
4.3
-0.9
-5.5
-12.4
-5.0
-4.1
0.7
-5.4
-3.1
2.5
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
14
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40
(y-o-y, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2014.Q1
Civil engineering works
Construction investment is expected to increase considering the SOC budget increase in 2015 (23.7 trillion won in 2014 to 24.8 trillion won in 2015), budget frontloading and a low base effect from the fourth quarter of 2014. Unsold houses (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 46 (Apr 2014) → 49 (May) → 50 (Jun) → 51 (Jul) → 45 (Aug) → 39 (Sep) → 40 (Oct) → 40 (Nov) → 40 (Dec)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012 Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permits²
Annual -6.2 -4.7 -9.1 -0.5
2013 Annual -15.3 -13.4 -19.2 -7.3
Q3 -10.6 16.8 -10.8 -10.0 -3.4
2014¹ Q4 22.4 2.9 17.9 33.4 -0.2
Annual¹ 16.8 26.7 -3.9 11.2
Q1 15.5 -1.4 10.7 24.4 18.4
Q2 26.1 10.5 47.0 -11.2 21.6
Q31 45.6 31.7 64.7 -4.2 14.7
Q41 -5.7 -34.1 -2.2 -13.3 -4.6
Nov1 -20.0 -26.1 -22.6 -13.6 -17.5
Dec1 -3.3 11.0 -1.0 -7.9 -7.3
1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300
(y-o-y, %)
250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2004.1
2005.1
Construction orders
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Building permit area
15
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
5. Exports and Imports Exports in January declined 0.4 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $45.37 billion. Exports decreased slightly in line with falling oil prices, which have led to drops in petroleum product and petrochemical product prices. By item, semiconductor and vessel exports surged, while others decreased due to price drops. By region, shipments to the US and China rose, while shipments to EU, Japan and the ASEAN countries fell. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 62.5 (vessels), 13.7 (semiconductors), -1.9 (mobile phones), -2.4 (steel), -19.8 (petrochemicals), -38.5 (petroleum products) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 15.2 (US), -23.0 (EU), -8.3 (ASEAN countries), 5.3 (China), -19.2 (Japan)
Excluding petroleum products and petrochemicals whose prices dropped due to falling oil prices, exports increased 6.6 percent in January. Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was down 6.8 percent year-on-year, posting US $1.93 billion in January. Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 5.4 (May 2014) → 4.9 (Jun) → 5.2 (Jul) → 4.0 (Aug) → 1.2 (Sep) → 2.3 (Oct) → 1.9 (Nov) → -0.7 (Dec) → -6.8 (Jan 2015)
Exports by item 180
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Export growth rate
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Semiconductors
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Automobiles
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Steel
16
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(US $ billion)
2013
2014
Annual Annual Exports
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Nov
Dec
Jan1
559.63
573.09
137.54
145.67
141.77
148.10
45.56
46.76
49.70
45.37
2.1
2.4
1.6
3.2
3.6
1.2
-0.2
-2.4
3.6
-0.4
2.05
2.11
2.07
2.19
2.07
2.13
2.07
2.08
2.07
1.93
(y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
2015
Q1
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports in January fell 11.0 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $39.84 billion. Imports of capital goods and consumer goods increased, but commodity imports fell sharply due to low oil prices. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -24.8 (commodities), 14.4 (capital goods), 11.1 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)
2013
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Nov
Dec
Jan1
515.58
525.56
132.36
130.93
132.83
129.44
44.75
41.37
43.95
39.84
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
1.9
2.0
3.3
5.4
-2.7
-1.2
-4.0
-0.9
-11.0
Average daily imports
1.89
1.94
1.99
1.97
1.94
1.86
2.03
1.84
1.83
1.70
Imports
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by item 120
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Import growth rate
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Commodities
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Capital goods
17
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Exports and imports 80
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(US $ billion)
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Trade balance
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Exports
Imports
The trade balance (preliminary) in January remained in the black for the 36th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US $5.53 billion. (US $ billion)
2013 Trade balance
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Nov
Dec
Jan1
44.05
47.53
5.18
14.74
8.94
18.67
0.81
5.39
5.75
5.53
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 3.0 percent month-on-month in December, as a decline in audio-visual communications equipment was offset by gains in automobiles and semiconductors & parts. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index increased 0.4 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (up 6.3%), semiconductors & parts (up 4.4%), chemical products (up 7.3%), electrical equipment (up 7.1%) and mechanical equipment (up 2.7%) rose, while production of audio-visual communications equipment (down 8.6%) and other transportation equipment (down 3.5%) declined. Compared to a year ago, production of automobiles (up 4.4%), mechanical equipment (up 5.6%) and electrical equipment (up 10.3%) rose, while semiconductors & parts (down 4.0%) and other transportation equipment (down 9.9%) declined.
18
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m) (y-o-y) Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic consumption - Exports Inventory³ Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)
Annual 0.3 0.3 0.4 -1.4 2.3 5.0 76.2 1.7
2013 2014¹ Q3 Q4 Dec Annual¹ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4¹ Nov¹ Dec¹ 0.1 1.9 2.1 0.3 -0.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.0 3.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.1 -2.0 -3.6 0.4 0.0 2.1 2.2 0.4 -1.1 -0.1 -1.3 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.8 2.6 -0.1 0.6 0.3 1.2 -2.2 -3.7 0.2 -0.1 1.7 1.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 3.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -1.4 1.8 1.6 -2.0 1.6 0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.8 -0.3 1.7 4.1 2.9 5.7 2.4 0.8 -2.8 -0.5 -0.2 1.9 -3.6 -1.4 -1.5 75.1 76.5 77.2 76.0 77.2 76.3 75.8 74.6 74.2 76.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 4.3 percentage points month-on-month to 115.7 percent as inventories fell 1.5 percent and shipments rose 2.1 percent. Inventories of chemical products (up 1.4%), groceries (up 2.8%) and rubber & plastics (up 1.8%) rose, while audio-visual communications equipment (down 23.5%), semiconductors & parts (down 3.8%) and primary metals (down 1.3%) declined. Shipments of automobiles (up 8.2%), semiconductors & parts (up 4.9%) and chemical products (up 2.6%) rose, while audio-visual communications equipment (down 6.4%), other transportation equipment (down 4.3%) and nonmetallic minerals (down 3.4%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 2.0 percentage points month-on-month to 76.2 percent.
19
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Shipment and inventory 10
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(m-o-m, %)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Shipment growth
Inventory growth
Average manufacturing operation ratio 100
2014.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
90
80
70
60
50 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Mining and manufacturing production will likely decrease in January due to a high base effect from November and December 2014.
7. Service sector activity Service output in December remained unchanged from the previous month, as wholesale & retail and transportation services rose while hotels & restaurants and financial & insurance services declined. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 3.0 percent. Hotels & restautants (down 4.1%, m-o-m) and publishing & communications services (down 1.2%, m-o-m) continued to decline, while financial & insurance services (down 1.6%, m-o-m) fell from the recent positive trend. Wholesale & retail (up 1.7%, m-o-m) rose for the first time in four months, and transportation services (up 2.3%, m-o-m) continued to rise.
20
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Service sector activity 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
Wholesale & retail 20
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Weight Service activity index 100.0 - Wholesale & retail 21.6 - Transportation services 8.5 - Hotels & restaurants 7.2 - Publishing & communications services 8.4 - Financial & insurance services 14.7 - Real estate & renting 5.3 - Professional, scientific & technical services 5.6 - Business services 3.3 - Education services 10.9 - Healthcare & social welfare services 7.5 - Entertainment, cultural & sports services 2.9 - Membership organizations & personal services 3.6 - Sewerage & waste management 0.6 1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
2012 2013 2014ยน Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1.6 1.4 0.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.8 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 1.2 1.1 0.6 2.0 1.1 -0.3 1.1 2.7 -1.2 0.4 -0.9 -0.1 -1.6 -2.1 6.0 -2.3 3.0 1.9 3.4 1.4 -2.0 0.8 0.6 -0.2 2.8 0.5 0.6 5.2 2.7 1.4 1.6 3.3 -4.8 2.5 3.6 5.5 -3.2 7.6 -1.4 4.6 3.7 3.3 0.7 2.3 0.4 3.0 -2.6 3.2 3.5 2.2 0.4 2.6 1.6 -0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.1 -2.3 1.7 0.2 6.7 5.0 1.6 6.4 1.5 0.4 1.9 2.6 2.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.8 1.4 -6.8 8.0 -3.4 -1.4 5.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -3.5 3.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 -1.4 1.9 0.8
Oct 0.9 -0.3 1.2 -1.6 -1.0 2.3 3.3 8.1 -0.7 2.1 0.1 -5.9 2.6 3.1
Nov1 -0.3 -0.6 1.2 -3.2 -0.9 2.7 -1.6 -2.9 0.1 -0.4 0.8 -0.6 -3.3 -3.0
Dec1 0.0 1.7 2.3 -4.1 -1.2 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 2.3 -0.7 0.0 -1.0 4.7 4.5
21
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
December 2014 service output by business 12 10
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
8
Transportation services
6 Total index
4 2 0
Publishing & communications services
Wholesale & retail
-2 -4
Hotels & restaurants
-6
Sewerage & waste management
Professional, scientific & technical services Entertainment, cultural & sports services
Education services
Real estate & renting Financial & insurance services
Business services
Health & social welfare services
Membership organizations & personal services
-8 -10 -12
Service output in January will be affected by positive factors, such as a rise in stock transactions, and also by negative factors, such as a decline in car sales as well as department store and large discount store sales. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 5.6 (Apr 2014) → 5.5 (May) → 5.4 (Jun) → 6.0 (Jul) → 6.3 (Aug) → 6.6 (Sep) → 6.8 (Oct) → 6.7 (Nov) → 6.0 (Dec) → 7.2 (Jan 2015)
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in December increased by 422,000 from a year earlier to 25,380,000 and the employment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 59.4 percent. By industry, services and manufacturing continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to lead employment growth, while self-employed workers declined for the first time in five months.
Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,200
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(thousands)
(millions)
26
1,000 25
800 600
24
400 23
200 0
22 -200 21
-400 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
22
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Number of employed (millions)
Dec Annual Q1
Q2
2014 Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
23.83 24.24 24.68 25.07 25.41 25.35 24.96 25.60 24.91 25.79 25.93 25.77 25.97 25.38
Employment rate (%)
58.7 59.1 59.4 59.5 60.3 60.0 59.1 60.2 58.8 60.8 60.9 60.4 60.8 59.4
(Seasonally adjusted)
58.7 59.1 59.4 59.5 59.7 59.9 59.9 60.2 60.4 59.9 60.3 60.3 60.3 60.3
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
323
415
437
386
421
541
560
533
729
464
517
422
438
422
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
405
440
451
394
402
556
587
601
717
518
638
531
523
516
- Manufacturing
191
63
14
79
26
49
82
146
123
136
194
129
102
142
33
-2
22
-19
4
-9
5
42
27
12
57
72
84
83
- Services
200
386
416
318
354
507
495
424
570
387
403
336
345
292
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-82
-25
-14
-8
19
-15
-27
-68
12
-54 -121 -109
-85
-94
- Wage workers
517
427
315
483
526
604
651
548
711
485
519
476
509
464
路 Permanent workers
697
575
436
615
632
637
656
443
606
478
333
355
332
372
路 Temporary workers
-34
-78
-2
-96
-65
2
-4
140
74
118
226
141
146
129
-146
-70 -120
-37
-42
-35
-1
-35
31 -111
-40
-20
31
-38
-194
-11
121
-97 -105
-63
-91
-15
19
-22
-3
-54
-71
-42
-118
1
124
-67
-83
-54
-58
1
-7
-14
19
7
9
-6
- Male
181
238
234
186
179
262
309
266
373
228
268
196
201
184
- Female
142
177
203
200
242
279
251
267
357
236
249
226
238
238
- 15 to 29
-43
-35
-36
-50
-41
46
53
77
97
53
102
56
49
41
- 30 to 39
-4
-47
-31
-21
-34
-42
-13
-21
-6
-42
-7
-29
-34
-30
- 40 to 49
29
57
11
22
30
53
58
38
99
34
15
4
10
3
- 50 to 59
294
291
270
254
279
285
289
239
323
227
215
190
193
209
47
149
222
181
187
200
173
200
218
192
192
201
221
199
- Construction
路 Daily workers - Nonwage workers 路 Self-employed workers
- 60 or more Source: Statistics Korea
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
23
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Employment by industry
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
100
80
60
69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8
40 7.1
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.2 7.2
6.9
6.7 6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1 7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1 7.0 7.0
6.8 6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.2 7.2
20 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 6.8
0
6.8
2012.7 8
6.8
6.9
6.5 4.9
9
10
11
4.3
4.6 5.6
12 2013.1 2
3
Services
6.3
6.7
6.9 6.7
6.8
6.8
6.9 6.2 4.7
4
5
6
8
9
10
7
Construction
11
4.4 4.5
12 2014.1 2
5.3
6.1
6.4
6.5
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
5.8 4.2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Manufacturing
12
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 5.3
80
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.5
4.2
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.1 5.2
5.2
5.3
5.1 4.3
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.7
4.1
21.5 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9
6.7 60
5.3
6.4
6.4
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.2
6.0
6.0
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.1 6.3
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.0
5.7
6.0
6.1
6.1 6.0
5.8
6.1 6.2
6.4
6.2
19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0
40
20
48.5 44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3
0 2012.7 8
9
10
Unpaid family workers
11
12 2013.1 2
3
4
5
Self-employed workers
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 2014.1 2
Daily workers
3
4
5
6
7
Temporary workers
8
9
10
11
12
Regular workers
The number of unemployed persons in December increased by 113,000 year-on-year to 886,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 3.4 percent. The unemployment rate rose year-on-year in all age groups excluding those in their 30s. The economically inactive population in December was down 78,000 from a year earlier to 16,460,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 61.5 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to old age (up 80,000, y-o-y) and rest (up 52,000, y-o-y) increased, while those due to housework (down 93,000, y-o-y), education (down 91,000, y-o-y) and childcare (down 15,000, y-o-y) decreased.
24
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Unemployment rate 6
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Original data
Seasonally adjusted rate
Number of unemployed (thousands)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 AnnualAnnualAnnualAnnual Q3 Q4 Dec Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec 920 855 820 807 777 733 774 937 1,031 977 884 854 818 886
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands) - Male
31
-65
-35
-13
7
37
137
-7
-48
-26
-6
11
-7 -15
49
40
62
37
59
58
56
- Female
38
-17
-9
-7
-4
18
52
80
84 103
70
63
60
58
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.1 3.0 2.8 3.0
3.5
4.0
3.7 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.4
(Seasonally adjusted) -15 to 29
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1
3.5
3.5
3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5
8.0
7.6
7.5
8.0 7.9 7.9 8.5
9.0
9.8
9.4 8.6 8.3 7.9 9.0
- 30 to 39
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.0 2.9 2.6 2.7
3.1
3.2
3.4 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7
- 40 to 49
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8
2.2
2.3
2.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
- 50 to 59 - 60 or more
2.5
2.1
2.1
1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5
2.2
2.2
2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8 1.2 1.4 1.7
2.3
4.4
1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.8
11
125 165 107 121 118 113
Source: Statistics Korea
Labor force participation rate 65
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
25
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Economically inactive population (millions)
Dec Annual Q1
2014 Q3
Q2
Q4
Nov
Dec
15.84 15.95 16.08 16.22 15.98 16.17 16.54 15.98 16.40 15.69 15.76 16.07 15.90 16.46
Labor force participation rate (%) 61.0 61.1 61.3 61.5
62.1 61.7 60.9 62.4 61.3 63.1 63.0 62.4 62.7
61.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
61.0 61.1 61.3 61.5
61.6 61.7 61.8 62.4 62.6 62.2 62.5 62.4 62.4
62.5
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
143
112
128
141
78
- Childcare
-125
-5
-2
1
9
- Housework
201
101
123
- Education
12
-51
- Old age
80
- Rest
-56
-91 -172 -246 -433 -226 -222 -101 -113
-78
-14
-40
-39
-29
-57
-41
-31
-28
-15
-3
-80 -112 -126 -131 -230 -127
-99
-67
-70
-93
-12
77
88
-44
-51
-81
-76
-68 -109
-72
-59
-91
-45
148
54
32
21
43
93
81
113
91
89
99
80
182
-53
-7
12
21
-32
-92 -197
-90
-65
-15
-66
52
Source: Statistics Korea
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI rose 1.8 percent in January 2015 from 1,916 points to 1,949 points. The KOSPI fluctuated due to external uncertainties, such as falling international oil prices and political unrest in Greece, but ended the month higher due to the ECB’s quantitative easing program.
Stock prices 2,200
(monthly average)
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
KOSPI
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
KOSDAQ
26
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Closing rate)
Dec 2014
KOSPI Jan 2015
Change1
Dec 2014
KOSDAQ Jan 2015
Change1
Stock price index (points)
1,915.6
1,949.3
33.7 (1.8%)
543.0
591.6
48.6 (9.0%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,192.3
1,213.5
21.2 (1.8%)
143.1
156.6
13.5 (9.4%)
3.9
4.4
0.5 (12.8%)
2.1
2.8
0.7 (33.3%)
34.1
34.3
0.2 (0.6%)
11.2
11.0
-0.2 (-1.8%)
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p) 1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate in January 2015 fell 5.8 won to 1,093.5 won from 1,099.3 won at the end of December 2014. Despite an increased demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over Greece and Russia, the dollar-won exchange rate fell due to a large current account surplus and trade surplus. The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose from 913.0 won in December 2014 to 928.3 won in January 2015 as the value of the yen went up due to an increased demand for safe-haven assets. (Closing rate)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Dec
2015 Jan
Changeยน
Dollar-Won
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,099.3
1,093.5
0.5
100 Yen-Won
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
913.0
928.3
-1.6
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
Foreign exchange rates 1,800
(month-end, \)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600 2004.1
2005.1
Dollar-Won
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
100 Yen-Won
27
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Daily exchange rate trend 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Dollar-Won
100 Yen-Won
9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 2.10 percent in December 2014 to 1.97 percent in January 2015. Treasury bond yields declined due to fallling US Treasury bond yields and a rising demand for safehaven assets.
Interest rates 10
Source: The Bank of Korea
(monthly average, yearly, %)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2014.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(Closing rate, %)
Call rate (1 day) CD (91 days) Treasury bonds (3 yrs) Corporate bonds (3 yrs) Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
2009 Dec 2.01 2.88 4.44 5.56 4.98
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
2010 Dec 2.51 2.80 3.38 4.27 4.08
2011 Dec 3.29 3.55 3.34 4.21 3.46
2012 Dec 2.77 2.89 2.82 3.29 2.97
2013 Dec 2.52 2.66 2.86 3.29 3.23
2014 Nov 1.99 2.13 2.07 2.39 2.23
Dec 2.03 2.13 2.10 2.43 2.28
Jan 2.00 2.12 1.97 2.27 2.05
2015 Change1 -3 -1 -13 -16 -23
28
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in November rose 8.3 percent from a year earlier. Money supply in the private sector surged due to an increase in bank loans, and money supply in the overseas sector rose due to a large current account surplus and a rise in foreign investment in Korean shares.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2009 Annual
2010 Annual
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
2013 Annual
Sep
Oct
2014 Nov
Nov1
M1²
16.3
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
11.8
12.1
12.6
562.0
M2
10.3
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
7.1
7.5
8.3
2,083.3
Lf ³
7.9
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
7.1
7.3
8.1
2,817.7
1. Balance at end November 2014, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
Reserve money
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
M1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Lf
Bank deposit growth (excluding bank debentures) slowed in December, as time deposits plummeted from a 3.7 trillion won rise in November to an 8.4 trillion won fall due to local governments’ withdrawal to fund year-end spending and corporate withdrawal at deposit maturity. Asset management company (AMC) deposits fell sharply, led by money market funds (MMF) (-1.2 trillion won → -11.5 trillion won), as banks and corporations withdrew funds to meet their year-end financial requirements and make year-end payments.
29
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Sep
Oct
2014 Nov
Dec
Dec1
Bank deposits2
54.8
36.9
58.9
37.0
41.0
3.7
7.3
21.0
52.0
1,290.7
AMC deposits
-27.6
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
17.7
2.7
21.8
2.9
-8.7
381.9
1. Balance at end December 2014 2. Including bank debentures
Deposits in financial institutions
Source: The Bank of Korea
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won) 30
20
10
0
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in December posted a surplus of US $7.22 billion, staying in the black for 34 consecutive months. The goods account surplus contracted from US $10.03 billion to US $8.52 billion, despite a rise in exports, with imports declining at a slower pace. Goods export growth (y-o-y, %) -5.0 (Nov 2014) → 1.7 (Dec) Goods import growth (y-o-y, %) -10.4 (Nov 2014) → -1.7 (Dec)
Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus expanded from US $6.80 billion to US $8.52 billion as imports declined while exports increased.
30
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -0.9 (total), -11.3 (commodities), 17.4 (capital goods), 10.0 (consumer goods) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 3.6 (total), 22.9 (mobile phones), 11.8 (semiconductors), 9.3 (steel), -6.5 (petroleum products), 1.4 (automobiles)
Current account balance 14 12
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Services account
Goods account
2014.1
Current account
The services account deficit expanded from US $0.16 billion to US $1.54 billion, despite a surplus in the construction account, as deficits in the transportation, travel, manufacturing and other businesses accounts increased. Services account (US $ billion, November → December) -0.34 → -0.45 (manufacturing), 0.33 → -0.18 (transportation), 0.01 → -0.56 (travel), 0.79 → 1.61 (construction), -0.26 → -0.57 (intellectual property rights), -0.89 → -1.33 (other businesses)
The primary income account surplus contracted from US $1.67 billion to US $1.18 billion due to a rise in dividend payments, while the secondary income account deficit expanded from US $0.21 billion to US $0.94 billion.
Travel balance 4
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 2004.1
2005.1
Travel balance
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Travel revenue
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Travel payment
31
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
(US $ billion)
2013 Annual Dec
Q2
2014¹ Q3
Annual
Q1
Oct
Nov
Dec1
Current account
81.15
6.60
89.42
15.18
24.24
22.57
8.88
11.32
7.22
- Goods balance
82.78
6.80
92.89
17.74
26.43
21.67
8.49
10.03
8.52
- Services balance
-6.50
-0.72
-8.16
-3.50
-1.84
-0.90
-0.21
-0.16
-1.54
- Primary income balance
9.06
1.23
10.20
1.90
1.33
3.14
0.97
1.67
1.18
- Secondary income balance
-4.19
-0.71
-5.50
-0.96
-1.68
-1.35
-0.36
-0.21
-0.94
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in December posted a net outflow of US $9.80 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion) -6.24 (Apr 2014) → -8.13 (May) → -9.84 (Jun) → -5.92 (Jul) → -7.80 (Aug) → -8.76 (Sep) → -6.80 (Oct) → -9.92 (Nov) → -9.80 (Dec)
FDI net outflows decreased from US $2.10 billion to US $1.35 billion as FDI inflows increased. Net outflows of portfolio investment expanded from US $2.84 billion to US $6.16 billion as foreign investment in Korean shares switched to a net outflow. Net outflows of financial derivatives investment expanded from US $0.08 to US $0.15 billion, while net outflows of other investment contracted from US $7.80 billion to US $5.13 billion due to a decrease in financial institutions’ overseas deposits. The current account is expected to continue posting a surplus in January, considering the trade surplus in January (US $5.53 billion).
Capital & financial account balance 15
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Portfolio investment
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Financial derivatives
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital & financial account
32
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices in January rose 0.5 percent month-on-month. Compared to the same month of the previous year, consumer prices rose 0.8 percent.
Consumer price inflation
(%)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2014 Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 Jan
Month-on-Month
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.5
Year-on-Year
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer price inflation 7
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
By item, the prices of petroleum products (down 9.0%, m-o-m) and gas (down 5.5%, m-o-m) declined, while tobacco and agricultural product prices rose. Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices were up 1.7 percent month-on-month (agricultural products up 4.9%, livestock products down 2.2%, fishery products down 0.4%), as agricultural product supply declined in the winter and livestock product prices stabilized with the spread of the foot-andmouth disease having been controlled. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) strawberries (57.9), lettuces (35.1), spinach (33.8), cucumbers (9.0), pork (-6.3), carrots (-6.2), eggs (-1.9)
33
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Manufactured product prices rose 0.9 percent from the previous month. Petroleum product prices fell 9.0 percent in line with falling international oil prices, but other manufactured product prices rose 11.9 percent, led by tobacco prices. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) domestic tobaccoos (83.7), imported tobaccos (67.9), bags (21.6), fabric softeners (17.9), gasoline (-9.8), diesel (-9.7), car LPG (-4.3)
Personal service prices rose 0.3 percent month-on-month. Dining out expenses rose 0.2 percent and personal service prices excluding dining out expenses were up 0.4 percent. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) housekeeping charges (1.3), overseas group tour expenses (1.3), middle school student tutoring costs (0.8), high school student tutoring costs (1.0), domestic group tour expenses (-5.6), international flight fares (-0.8)
Contribution to consumer price inflation 7
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%p)
5
3
1
‐1 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured products
Housing rents
Public services
Personal services
Public utilities
Consumer prices for basic necessities fell 0.3 percent year-on-year but rose 0.2 percent month-on-month. Price increases for basic necessities (y-o-y, %) 1.4 (Jul 2014) → 0.8 (Aug) → 0.6 (Sep) → 0.7 (Oct) → 0.7 (Nov) → 0.3 (Dec) → -0.3 (Jan 2015)
Fresh food prices declined 2.1 percent year-on-year, led by fruits (down 10.8%). Compared to the previous month, fresh food prices rose 5.3 percent.
34
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Fresh food price increases (y-o-y, %) -8.3 (Jul 2014) → -11.8 (Aug) → -8.6 (Sep) → -6.6 (Oct) → -5.2 (Nov) → -2.8 (Dec) → -2.1 (Jan 2015)
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 2.4 percent year-on-year and 0.9 percent month-on-month.
Core inflation and prices for basic necessities
(y-o-y, %)
2014 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.4
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 2.3
Consumer prices for basic necessities
0.6 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 -0.3
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices 16
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(y‐o‐y, %)
13
10
7
4
1
-2 -5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Consumer price inflation
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Core inflation
2014.1
2015.1
Producer price inflation
The expected annual inflation remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.6 percent, while import prices fell 13.0 percent year-on-year. Expected inflation (%, over the next 12 months) 2.8 (Jun 2014) → 2.8 (Jul) → 2.8 (Aug) → 2.8 (Sep) → 2.7 (Oct) → 2.7 (Nov) → 2.6 (Dec) → 2.6 (Jan 2015) Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -8.8 (Jun 2014) → -8.6 (Jul) → -9.9 (Aug) → -8.9 (Sep) → -7.6 (Oct) → -8.0 (Nov) → -13.0 (Dec)
35
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices fell sharply month-on-month in January with both OPEC and non-OPEC supplies increasing. Dubai crude prices fell 23.9 percent month-on-month as oversupply triggered speculative selling. Despite plunging international oil prices, the OPEC is planning to continue boosting production, led by Saudi Arabia, in order to gain market share. Dubai crude ($/barrel) 53.3 (Jan 2) → 47.4 (Jan 9) → 43.9 (Jan 16) → 44.4 (Jan 23) → 45.6 (Jan 30)
(US $/barrel, period average)
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2014 Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 Jan
Dubai crude 105.9
109.0
105.3 104.0 105.0 104.4 104.6 105.6 107.9 106.1 101.9 96.6
86.8
77.1
60.2
45.8
Brent crude 111.0
111.7
108.7 107.7 108.9 107.7 107.8 109.4 111.8 107.4 102.6 98.0
87.8
79.3
62.8
49.7
84.4
76.4
59.3
47.3
WTI crude
95.1
93.8
98.0
94.9 100.7 100.5 102.0 101.8 105.2 102.6
96.3 93.2
Source: Korea PDS
International oil prices 160
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Dubai crude
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
WTI
Domestic gasoline prices fell for the 10th consecutive month in January, due to falling international oil prices. Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,568.7 (1st week Jan) → 1,531.1 (2nd week) → 1,477.5 (3rd week) → 1,435.1 (4th week)
36
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
160 ($/B)
(thousand won/B) 140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
(Won/liter, period average)
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2014 Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 Jan
Gasoline prices 1,929.3 1,985.8 1,924.5 1,886.4 1,880.7 1,880.8 1,875.9 1,869.5 1,861.7 1,856.7 1,842.0 1,817.1 1,781.1 1,730.2 1,652.2 1,564.8 Diesel prices
1,745.7 1,806.3 1,729.6 1,705.1 1,698.5 1,696.0 1,688.9 1,680.9 1,670.8 1,661.8 1,644.5 1,620.9 1,585.0 1,534.3 1,461.0 1,330.5
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
International grain prices declined in January despite Russia’s decision to curb wheat exports, as the US Department of Agriculture raised production and inventory estimates with many areas benefitting from favorable weather. Russia, faced with rising domestic grain prices due to the weak ruble, introduced a duty on wheat exports in February. International grain price increases in January (m-o-m, %) wheat (-11.6), corn (-1.9), soybeans (-3.0)
Nonferrous metal prices fell month-on-month as international oil prices fell, and also as inventories were expected to rise due to growing uncertainties regarding the Chinese and eurozone economies. Nonferrous metal price increases in January (m-o-m, %) copper (-9.5), nickel (-7.2), lead (-5.5), aluminum (-5.5), zinc (-2.8), tin (-1.8)
Reuters index* 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual 3,062
3,006
2,774
(Period average)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2014 Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 Jan
2,574 2,586 2,641 2,650 2,608 2,569 2,548 2,510 2,415 2,395 2,407 2,388 2,377
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
37
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
International commodity prices
Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index)
* CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470
4000
430 390
3000
350 310
2000
270 230
1000
190 150
0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
CRB (left)
2014.1
2015.1
Reuters index (right)
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Apartment sales prices rose 0.1 percent month-on-month nationwide in January. Apartment sales prices rose 0.1 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.1%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.2%). Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.2 percent. Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. Apartment sales price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.1), Daegu (0.5), Gwangju (0.3), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.1)
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Jun
Jul
2014 Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 Jan
Nationwide
1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
1.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
Gangnam¹
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
1.2
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
Gangbuk²
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
1.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.9
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
38
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Apartment sales prices by region 3
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(m‐o‐m, %)
2
1
0
-1 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
Nationwide
7
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2014.1
7
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Nationwide apartment rental prices in January rose 0.3 percent month-on-month. Rental prices rose 0.4 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.2 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangdong (1.2), Gangnam (0.4), Seocho (0.3), Songpa (0.4), Guro (0.5)
Nationwide apartment rental prices Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk²
2010 Annual 7.1 6.3 6.4 7.6 5.1
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Jun 12.3 3.5 4.7 3.4 0.1 11.0 2.1 6.2 4.7 0.1 10.8 2.1 6.6 3.6 0.0 11.1 2.4 6.7 3.3 0.0 10.6 1.8 6.4 3.8 0.1 14.5
4.6
3.3
2.2
0.1
Jul 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
2014 Aug Sep 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3
Oct 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Nov 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Dec 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
2015 Jan 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3
(m‐o‐m, %)
2
1
0
-1 -2 2009.1
Nationwide
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
39
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Apartment sales transactions in December increased 0.1 percent from 91,050 transactions in the previous month to 91,130 transactions, but were down 2.2 percent from a year earlier (93,188).
Monthly apartment transaction volume 160
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
(thousands)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
Nationwide
7
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2014.1
7
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Apartment sales transactions
(Thousands)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nationwide
73
67
82
61
85
93
79
90
93
78
74
77
76
87
109
91
91
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
12.2 Land market Land prices rose 0.17 percent month-on-month nationwide in December. Land prices rose 1.96 percent in 2014, posting the highest growth rate since the 2008 financial crisis. Land prices rose 0.14 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, which includes Seoul (up 0.18%) and Incheon (up 0.16%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (May 2014) → 0.13 (Jun) → 0.15 (Jul) → 0.13 (Aug) → 0.19 (Sep) → 0.20 (Oct) → 0.14 (Nov) → 0.14 (Dec)
Land price growth accelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.20%), which include Busan (up 0.24%), Daejeon (up 0.17%), Sejong (up 0.26%) and North Gyeongsang Province (up 0.24%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (May 2014) → 0.18 (Jun) → 0.20 (Jul) → 0.15 (Aug) → 0.18 (Sep) → 0.20 (Oct) → 0.18 (Nov) → 0.20 (Dec)
40
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q2 Q3
Q4 Annual Q2
Q3
2014 Q4
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nationwide
-0.31
0.96
1.05
1.17
0.87
1.14 0.37 0.10 0.46
1.96 0.48 0.49 0.53 0.20 0.16 0.17
Seoul
-1.00
1.40
0.53
0.97
0.33
1.21 0.41 0.08 0.61
2.66 0.59 0.69 0.67 0.29 0.20 0.18
Gyeonggi
-0.26
1.22
1.49
1.47
0.97
0.91 0.33 0.07 0.34
1.24 0.37 0.27 0.33 0.12 0.10 0.11
Incheon
1.37
1.99
1.43
0.66
0.36
0.87 0.37 0.07 0.23
1.35 0.25 0.32 0.40 0.15 0.08 0.16
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Land prices by region 18
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(%)
15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
National average
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2007
Metropolitan city
Land and consumer prices since 1970s 70
2003
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
City
2013
2014
County
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(y�o�y, %)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1974
1977
Land price inflation
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Consumer price inflation
41
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
There were 257,000 land transactions in December, up 12.7 percent from the previous month and 9.1 percent from 236,000 a year earlier. Land transactions rose nationwide, led by Busan (up 19.5%, m-o-m), Ulsan (up 26.7%, m-o-m), North Gyeongsang Province (up 42.9%, m-o-m) and South Gyeongsang Province (up 33.0%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 38.7 percent of the total land transactions, rose 22.8 percent month-on-month to 100,000 and 13.2 percent from 88,000 a year earlier.
Land transactions
(Land lots, thousands)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Nov Dec Annual¹ Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Nationwide 208
203
187
208
170
187
Seoul
26
22
16
18
13
17
201 236 19
22
220 22
233 207 199 219 204 214 258 228 257 22
18
18
21
21
23
29
25
23
Gyeonggi
45
46
41
43
33
37
41
50
46
49
42
39
45
42
46
57
50
53
Incheon
13
10
8
10
8
8
9
9
10
11
9
9
8
9
10
13
11
9
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Land transaction volume 500,000
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in December rose 0.9 percent month-on-month and 1.8 percent year-on-year. Output fell in construction (down 0.8%, m-o-m), but rose in mining & manufacturing (up 3.0%, m-o-m) and public administration (up 0.1%, m-o-m). Output remained unchanged in services.
42
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Index of all industry production 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Index of all industry production(y-o-y)
2014 May
Jun
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %)
-1.0
2.3
(y-o-y, %)
-0.6
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct1
Nov1
Dec1
0.3
-0.6
-0.8
0.4
0.0
0.9
1.7
2.7
0.5
2.0
0.2
-0.4
1.8
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.7
100.1
100.1
100.2
100.5
100.3
100.0
99.8
100.1
(m-o-m, p)
-0.4
0.0
0.1
0.3
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
0.3
Leading composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.3
0.6
0.4
1.2
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.6
101.3
101.6
101.6
102.4
103.1
103.3
103.3
103.5
-0.1
0.3
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.2
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p) 1. Preliminary
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.3 points month-on-month in December. All components of the coincident composite index rose, except for the value of construction completed. Components of the coincident composite index in December (m-o-m) mining & manufacturing production (0.8%), service output (0.3%), retail sales (1.3%), domestic shipments (0.6%), imports (2.2%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.1%), value of construction completed (-0.5%)
43
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.2 points. Five components of the leading composite index, such as the consumer expectations index and domestic shipments of machinery, declined, while four others, such as the inventory circulation indicator, ratio of export to import prices and ratio of job openings to job seekers, rose. Components of the leading composite index in December (m-o-m) inventory circulation indicator (2.1%p), ratio of export to import prices (2.2%), international commodity prices (2.8%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (2.7%p), consumer expectations index (-2.0p), domestic shipments of machinery (-2.0%), value of construction orders received (-13.0%), KOSPI (-1.7%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.01%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
44
Economic News Briefing
Korea Grows 0.4% in Q4 (Advanced) Government to Encourage Employee Stock Ownership Program Corporate Investment Boosting Program Starts February Government Budget for Software up 23% in 2015 Financial Regulators to Support Fintech Venture Firms Exceed 30,000 for First Time Korea, China Agree to Work on Eurasia Initiative G20 Agrees to Build Confidence and Reaffirms Effective Policy Coordination Korean FDI Down 1.5% in 2014
Economic News Briefing
45
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
building construction and civil engineering works decreased. Intellectual property investment rose 0.1 percent, led by investment in software.
Korea Grows 0.4% in Q4 (Advanced) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 2.7 percent year-onyear in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to advanced data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on January 23. For the whole year of 2014, the Korean economy grew 3.3 percent.
Exports declined 0.3 percent, led by LCD products and vessels, and imports were down 0.6 percent, led by metal products.
Manufacturing declined 0.3 percent, led by primary metals and chemical products, and construction fell 3.3 percent, led by civil engineering works. Services grew 0.7 percent, as gains in wholesale & retail, transportation & storage, financial & insurance services and healthcare & social welfare services offset declines in communications services.
Government to Encourage Employee Stock Ownership Program The government announced on February 2 measures to revitalize the employee stock ownership program. The employee stock ownership program, which allows workers to acquire stocks in their company, was introduced in 1968, but only 0.6 percent of all companies have adopted the program, and among the companies that did adopt the program only 37 percent actually have employees that own corporate stocks.
On the expenditure side, private consumption rose 0.5 percent, led by durable and nondurable goods. Facility investment grew 5.6 percent, as both transportation equipment and machinery investment increased, while construction investment declined 9.2 percent, as both
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period) 1
20141
2013
GDP
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
3.0
0.6 (2.1)2
1.0 (2.7)2
1.1 (3.4)2
0.9 (3.7)2
3.3
0.9 (3.9)2
0.5 (3.5)2
0.9 (3.2)2
0.4 (2.7) 2
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
5.8
-4.1
1.9
4.6
7.4
3.0
-4.4
-3.7
2.5
7.6
Manufacturing
3.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.8
4.0
2.2
0.9
-0.8
-0.3 -3.3
Construction
3.6
2.7
1.7
1.9
-2.4
2.2
1.2
0.2
1.1
Services3
2.9
0.5
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.6
1.4
0.7
Private consumption
2.0
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
1.7
0.2
-0.3
1.0
0.5
Government consumption
2.7
0.5
1.6
0.4
0.9
2.8
0.0
0.3
2.3
0.5
Facility investment
-1.5
1.5
1.0
2.7
5.6
5.9
-1.9
1.1
-0.5
5.6
Construction investment
6.7
6.5
4.6
0.2
-5.2
1.1
5.1
0.4
2.5
-9.2
Intellectual property investment
7.3
9.4
-2.2
1.2
1.8
5.3
6.5
-3.6
0.6
0.1
Exports Imports
4.3 1.6
0.2 0.6
2.6 1.8
-1.1 -0.4
1.4 2.9
2.8 2.0
1.5 -0.8
1.7 1.1
-2.2 -0.5
-0.3 -0.6
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
46
Economic News Briefing
The government will introduce financial products through which the workers can hedge against the loss from falling stock prices. Also, workers who hold corporate stocks for over six years will be exempt from the earned income tax. Businesses get tax incentives if they use corporate profits to fund the employee stock ownership fund, and high-performing workers can receive stocks as compensation. By encouraging employee stock ownership, the government aims to promote healthy labor-management relationships and increase employee income.
Corporate Investment Boosting Program Starts February The government launched a corporate investment boosting program in February. A total of 30 trillion won has been earmarked for the program in a bid to revive facility investment, which has been stagnating
in recent years due to a rise in investment risk. The government will utilize the funds in various ways, such as co-investing in projects with private companies, or acquiring redeemable preferred shares, convertible bonds and corporate bonds. The program focuses on investment projects in new growth engine industries, including promising service industries, core industries, such as semiconductors, automobiles, machinery and steel, and infrastructure, which are usually too big and risky for a single company.
Government Budget for Software up 23% in 2015 The government is stepping up efforts to promote software this year, with the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning raising the software budget for 2015 by 23 percent from last year to 705.2 billion won. The government will provide support to
Elementary school students are playing with a virtual keyboard at a software camp held at Seoul Science Park on February 5. The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning is stepping up efforts to promote software, which include reinforcing software education in schools.
47
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
promising software sectors such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud computing, and will help software companies to compete on the global-level, aiming to increase the number of global software companies from 17 in 2013 to 100 in 2020. Software education will be expanded in elementary, middle and high schools in order to make students softwarefriendly from an early age. The government is also running campaigns to educate the public on the importance of software.
Financial Regulators to Support Fintech The Financial Services Commission (FSC) has recently unveiled plans to support the convergence of IT and finance. Financial technology, or fintech, has emerged as a global trend, but until now Korea has not been active in fostering fintech due to regulatory barriers and security concerns. The FSC will change regulations that are focused on offline services, and support the growth of the fintech industry. First, the FSC will give financial and IT companies more freedom to develop innovative financial services by streamlining regulations. Second, the FSC will create a business model for online banking, and seek parliamentary approval for the revision of the Capital Markets Act, which lays the legal foundation for crowd funding. Third, the FSC will support the fintech industry by financing fintech startups and lowering barriers to entry. These measures are expected to benefit consumers by expanding the scope of financial products and services available, as well as making them more accessible.
Venture Firms Exceed 30,000 for First Time The number of venture businesses in Korea exceeded 30,000 for the first time as of January 13,
according to the Small & Medium Business Administration (SMBA) on January 23. Venture firms, which first appeared in the late 1980s, grew in quantity and quality over the years, and have contributed greatly to the economy in terms of creating added value and jobs. In 2013, the total sales revenue of venture companies amounted to 198.7 trillion won, or 13.9 percent of Korea’s GDP. Venture firms employed 720,000 workers in 2013, or 4.8 percent of the workforce. At the current pace, the number of venture firms will rise to 35,000 and the total sales revenue of these companies will amount to 230 trillion won by 2017.
Korea, China Agree to Work on Eurasia Initiative The 13th Korea-China Finance Ministers’ Meeting was held in Beijing, China on January 29. At the meeting, Korea and China discussed cooperating with regards to macroeconomic policy, industrial investment, new technologies, urbanization, venture investment, air pollution prevention and responding to climate change. The two parties laid the foundation for future cooperation by agreeing to work together on President Park Geun-hye’s Eurasia Initiative, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s One Belt and One Road Project and the Saemangeum Korea-China Economic Cooperation Complex.
G20 Agrees to Build Confidence and Reaffirms Effective Policy Coordination Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choi Kyung-Hwan attended the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Istanbul, Turkey on February 9-10, where the finance
48
Economic News Briefing
G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are posing for a group photo in Istanbul, Turkey on February 10.
ministers and central bank governors discussed policy coordination and structural reform to boost growth. The G20 recognized that its key role is to boost confidence in the global economy through effective implementation of macroeconomic and structural reform. Deputy Prime Minister Choi emphasized the role of the G20 as a confidence multiplier by carrying out structural reform as scheduled. Regarding the G20’s decision to continue making preemptive assessment on major risk scenarios in the global economy, the Deputy Prime Minister underscored the expansion and development of risk scenario analysis. In the case of a crisis, he proposed three measures: a high-level G20 hotline, a G20 market messaging system and currency swap arrangements. The G20 also agreed to develop concrete and ambitious investment strategies that will also support the growth initiative. Deputy Prime Minister Choi recognized the governmental efforts to bolster private sector investment in infrastructure, emphasizing a need for
an efficient public-private partnership (PPP) model at the G20 level.
Korean FDI Down 1.5% in 2014 Korean foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped 1.5 percent from US $35.5 billion in 2013 to US $35.07 billion in 2014. By industry, FDI in financial & insurance services (up 78.1%) and real estate & renting (up 2.8%) increased, while investment in manufacturing (down 12.9%) and mining (down 48.0%) decreased. By region, investment in North America (up 59.0%) and the Middle East (up 157.9%) increased, but investment in Asia (down 7.0%), Europe (down 16.8%) and Latin America (down 28.9%) went down. The top five destinations for Korean investment were the US (US $9.2 billion), China (US $3.75 billion), the Cayman Islands (US $2.83 billion), Vietnam (US $2.1 billion) and Canada (US $1.52 billion).
1. National accounts 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Statistical Appendices
50
Statistical Appendices
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP
Final consumption Agri., fores. & Manufacturing expenditure fisheries
Period
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014P
5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 3.0 3.3
1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 5.8 3.0
7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.3 4.0
5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0
3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 4.2 3.3
0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 6.7 1.1
8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -1.5 5.9
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.2 -2.4 -5.8 7.0
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.3 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0
8.2 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
-0.3 -2.2 -0.1 -0.7
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.3 -1.0 -3.4
-0.2 -5.4 -2.7 -6.2
11.1 -1.8 -4.2 -4.0
2013PⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7
0.4 2.9 7.4 9.9
1.8 2.8 3.8 4.5
1.6 2.4 2.3 2.4
-2.6 5.0 5.9 7.8
1.9 9.8 8.8 5.4
-12.7 -3.9 1.5 10.9
2014PⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3.9 3.5 3.2 3.3
7.7 3.4 0.6 1.7
5.6 5.3 3.1 2.0
2.6 1.5 2.0 1.8
5.9 3.4 3.7 0.9
4.3 0.2 3.0 -1.8
7.3 7.7 3.9 4.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
51
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100)
Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
2012 2013 2014P
107.4 107.7 107.7
1.3 0.3 0.0
107.2 107.6 107.4
1.5 0.4 -0.2
125.2 131.4 127.6
4.4 5.0 -2.9
104.8 106.3 108.6
1.6 1.4 2.2
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
105.7 108.9 103.9 112.5
-0.8 0.0 0.2 1.9
105.7 108.9 104.0 111.8
-0.8 0.5 0.2 2.0
123.1 119.4 125.0 131.4
4.6 4.0 9.2 6.2
102.9 106.7 105.6 109.9
0.9 1.7 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
106.4 109.2 105.0 110.2
0.7 0.3 1.1 -2.0
105.9 108.7 104.3 110.5
0.2 -0.2 0.3 -1.2
130.1 128.6 129.3 127.6
5.7 7.7 3.4 -2.9
104.9 108.2 108.3 112.9
1.9 1.4 2.6 2.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.0 106.1 111.6 106.8 110.7 109.2 106.0 100.3 104.7 108.8 112.6 110.3
-3.1 15.3 0.9 0.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.8 3.0 0.1
102.8 106.1 111.0 106.2 109.9 109.2 105.2 99.9 106.2 108.2 111.0 110.1
-2.8 13.5 0.1 -0.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 -1.4 1.9 -0.9 2.6 -0.3
119.3 117.4 117.7 116.5 118.2 114.8 115.4 119.3 114.5 116.1 121.3 125.2
14.2 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.8 4.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 0.6 3.1 4.4
100.3 99.9 105.7 102.8 105.9 105.9 104.8 103.9 105.7 104.7 105.5 112.7
0.3 6.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.5 0.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.9 96.9 109.2 109.1 110.2 107.4 107.5 103.5 100.7 112.7 111.8 113.0
8.7 -8.7 -2.2 2.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.4 3.2 -3.8 3.6 -0.7 2.4
109.5 97.8 109.8 108.8 109.8 108.1 106.6 104.4 100.9 112.0 111.3 112.1
6.5 -7.8 -1.1 2.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 4.5 -5.0 3.5 0.3 1.8
128.3 124.6 123.1 121.0 122.2 119.4 124.2 123.8 125.0 126.9 129.2 131.4
7.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.0 7.6 3.8 9.2 9.3 6.5 5.0
102.1 100.2 106.4 105.4 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.6 105.5 107.7 107.4 114.7
1.8 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
106.1 100.7 112.3 111.8 107.9 107.9 111.8 100.6 102.6 109.2 107.8 113.5
-4.3 3.9 2.8 2.5 -2.1 0.5 4.0 -2.8 1.9 -3.1 -3.6 0.4
104.5 100.8 112.5 110.8 108.1 107.3 108.9 101.0 102.8 108.5 108.7 114.3
-4.6 3.1 2.5 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.2 -3.3 1.9 -3.1 -2.3 2.0
133.1 129.3 130.1 131.3 129.8 128.6 133.0 130.3 129.3 130.2 129.5 127.6
3.7 3.8 5.7 8.5 6.2 7.7 7.1 5.3 3.4 2.6 0.2 -2.9
104.3 101.3 109.0 106.4 108.5 109.7 108.4 107.7 108.8 110.7 109.9 118.1
2.2 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.7 2.5 2.7 2.0 3.1 2.8 2.3 3.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
52
Statistical Appendices
3. Production capacity and operation ratio (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Period
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
2012 2013 2014P
106.9 108.7 110.1
2.1 1.7 1.3
97.5 94.8 94.0
-2.7 -2.8 -0.8
78.5 76.2 76.0
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.2 108.4 108.9 109.3
1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7
93.3 97.4 90.5 97.9
-4.3 -3.6 -2.9 -0.4
77.3 75.9 75.1 76.5
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
109.5 109.7 110.5 110.9
1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5
92.5 96.8 91.2 95.5
-0.9 -0.6 0.8 -2.5
77.2 76.3 75.8 74.6
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.7 107.2 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.6
2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.9
92.5 97.2 102.9 98.9 102.6 101.4 97.2 88.3 94.1 98.1 100.7 96.1
-8.0 11.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -6.9 -3.6 -4.6 -1.7 -4.5
80.0 80.4 79.2 79.6 79.9 78.9 78.4 74.3 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.1 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.7 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.6
1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
98.5 84.5 96.8 97.4 99.0 95.9 94.3 90.4 86.7 99.2 97.9 96.7
6.5 -13.1 -5.9 -1.5 -3.5 -5.4 -3.0 2.4 -7.9 1.1 -2.8 0.6
78.8 77.1 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 74.8 76.3 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
109.6 109.5 109.5 109.5 109.7 109.8 110.3 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.8 111.0
1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3
91.6 87.2 98.7 99.8 95.6 95.1 98.4 86.4 88.7 95.6 93.8 97.0
-7.0 3.2 2.0 2.5 -3.4 -0.8 4.3 -4.4 2.3 -3.6 -4.2 0.4
78.2 75.8 77.5 77.8 74.6 76.4 78.2 74.0 75.1 73.5 74.2 76.2
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
53
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100)
Period
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)
Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014P
107.0 107.9 109.6
2.4 0.8 1.6
116.2 116.6 122.6
5.3 0.3 5.1
103.8 105.9 105.1
-0.4 2.0 -0.8
104.1 104.7 105.5
2.0 0.6 0.8
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.4 106.4 106.5 111.6
2.8 1.4 2.7 2.5
109.4 114.9 118.4 122.0
4.0 2.6 6.4 8.3
99.0 105.5 92.3 118.4
0.6 -0.5 -2.3 0.5
102.6 102.8 107.2 103.8
3.1 1.7 2.8 0.5
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.7 107.7 107.2 112.9
0.3 1.2 0.7 1.2
110.9 118.2 116.8 120.2
1.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5
101.7 107.2 95.0 119.6
2.7 1.6 2.9 1.0
101.2 103.0 108.0 106.7
-1.4 0.2 0.7 2.8
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
106.3 108.5 108.7 115.0
2.5 0.7 1.4 1.9
117.5 121.2 123.3 128.4
6.0 2.5 5.6 6.8
99.9 104.6 95.8 120.2
-1.8 -2.4 0.8 0.5
103.9 104.3 107.4 106.5
2.7 1.3 -0.6 -0.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.5 97.8 105.0 103.0 110.1 106.1 108.2 102.3 109.1 109.0 111.6 114.3
2.1 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.3 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.1
107.2 107.2 113.7 107.3 117.3 120.0 125.6 114.0 115.7 117.1 123.1 125.9
3.3 9.8 -0.4 1.0 4.4 2.2 7.4 4.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 10.6
104.7 91.9 100.4 104.8 111.4 100.3 97.3 82.1 97.6 114.8 118.8 121.5
-0.2 2.0 0.1 -1.3 0.8 -0.9 0.9 -5.1 -3.0 -2.0 5.1 -1.4
108.8 96.0 102.9 100.1 106.1 102.1 104.9 105.7 111.1 102.7 103.0 105.8
2.4 4.8 2.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 -0.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.0 105.3 110.8 106.9 109.2 104.6 107.7 111.2 113.1 114.5
-2.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.2 -1.3 2.0 1.3 0.2
112.2 105.9 114.7 115.0 119.5 120.2 127.4 116.3 106.8 120.4 120.2 120.0
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.0 -7.7 2.8 -2.4 -4.7
102.9 93.1 109.2 106.4 113.8 101.5 98.1 87.1 99.9 113.6 123.5 121.8
-1.7 1.3 8.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.8 6.1 2.4 -1.0 4.0 0.2
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.1 105.5 106.9 111.6 105.9 105.3 108.8
-6.5 3.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 3.1 2.2 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
110.5 99.1 109.3 105.5 112.0 108.0 109.8 107.0 109.2 111.1 114.2 119.7
5.6 -0.4 2.1 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 2.3 1.4 -0.1 1.0 4.5
116.8 117.1 118.6 114.1 121.7 127.6 131.2 118.4 120.4 118.7 128.6 137.9
4.1 10.6 3.4 -0.8 1.8 6.2 3.0 1.8 12.7 -1.4 7.0 14.9
100.2 91.6 107.9 105.4 111.3 97.2 95.2 91.1 101.1 115.8 120.2 124.6
-2.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -2.2 -4.2 -3.0 4.6 1.2 1.9 -2.7 2.3
112.1 94.0 105.5 101.5 107.8 103.6 106.1 108.6 107.5 105.5 104.8 109.1
10.2 -5.3 2.9 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.6 1.6 -3.7 -0.4 -0.5 0.3
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
Statistical Appendices
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period
Consumer sentiment index
2012 2013 2014P
102.5 101.9 101.3
1.6 -0.6 -0.6
102.8 103.1 102.1
2.5 0.3 -1.0
102.4 101.4 101.0
1.2 -1.0 -0.4
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.8 98.4 102.1 104.5
2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4
108.0 100.6 102.3 101.5
10.4 1.5 -0.2 -9.4
100.5 97.4 101.9 105.8
-1.5 -2.8 -1.9 2.3
-
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
100.4 99.9 101.8 103.3
-2.3 1.5 -0.3 -1.1
103.2 102.6 100.1 102.6
-4.4 2.0 -2.2 1.1
99.2 98.7 102.5 103.5
-1.3 1.3 0.6 -2.2
-
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100.6 98.6 103.1 99.2 101.6 98.9 102.8 101.5 106.1 106.6 105.7 105.7
-7.0 10.9 -2.6 0.9 5.9 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 4.7 1.5
92.5 98.3 102.5 94.1 100.4 102.8 105.3 98.4 103.9 108.5 110.9 116.5
-8.3 6.0 -2.4 -3.6 1.2 -2.4 0.7 0.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 15.5
104.0 98.7 103.3 101.3 102.1 97.3 101.8 102.9 107.0 105.7 103.5 101.1
-6.6 13.1 -2.6 2.6 8.0 0.2 3.4 -1.1 4.4 -0.8 1.6 -4.1
98 102 102 106 106 101 100 101 99 100 100 99
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.4 96.7 103.2 99.1 99.3 96.7 103.2 103.7 99.3 108.7 102.8 102.0
7.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 2.2 -6.4 2.0 -2.7 -3.5
110.4 106.1 107.6 97.9 101.3 102.6 108.8 103.6 94.6 104.3 102.9 97.4
19.4 7.9 5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.3 -9.0 -3.9 -7.2 -16.4
107.5 92.6 101.3 99.6 98.5 94.1 100.8 103.7 101.3 110.6 102.7 104.0
3.4 -6.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 -5.3 4.6 -0.8 2.8
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
102.2 96.3 102.6 101.2 99.6 98.9 104.2 99.7 101.6 104.5 100.1 105.2
-5.7 -0.4 -0.6 2.1 0.3 2.3 1.0 -3.9 2.3 -3.9 -2.6 3.1
99.8 106.5 103.3 97.8 103.4 106.7 106.8 94.2 99.4 99.0 102.2 106.6
-9.6 0.4 -4.0 -0.1 2.1 4.0 -1.8 -9.1 5.1 -5.1 -0.7 9.4
103.3 91.9 102.3 102.7 97.9 95.5 103.1 102.0 102.5 106.8 99.2 104.6
-3.9 -0.8 1.0 3.1 -0.6 1.5 2.3 -1.6 1.2 -3.4 -3.4 0.6
109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107 107 105 103 101
2015 1
-
-
-
102
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
-
-
-
55
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Estimated facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) (2010=100) change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period 2012 2013 2014P
21,648 23,105 26,646
-13.9 6.7 15.3
2,142 2,580 5,008
-11.0 20.5 94.1
19,506 20,524 21,638
-14.2 5.2 5.4
100.6 99.3 103.9
-2.8 -1.3 4.6
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,592 5,867 5,148 6,498
-11.4 8.8 2.2 32.4
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,163 5,313 4,625 5,423
-6.1 4.0 3.8 22.1
91.2 100.6 98.8 106.4
-13.1 -4.0 2.7 10.4
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
6,594 6,126 7,732 6,194
17.9 4.4 50.2 -4.7
1,221 305 2,708 774
184.6 -45.0 418.5 -28.0
5,373 5,821 5,024 5,419
4.1 9.6 8.6 -0.1
96.6 106.8 100.3 111.8
5.9 6.2 1.5 5.1
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,933 2,541 1,836 1,845 1,830 1,716 1,835 1,509 1,693 1,511 1,656 1,743
-0.8 25.1 -23.6 -4.4 -14.4 -35.4 -9.4 -14.2 -10 -22.5 -27.8 -18.3
52 695 63 56 39 190 310 169 100 86 127 255
-22.2 829.0 -70.9 -10.3 -72.8 -62.2 135.5 105.9 3.5 -72.3 -75.8 31.2
1,881 1,846 1,773 1,789 1,791 1,526 1,525 1,339 1,593 1,425 1,529 1,488
0.0 -5.7 -18.9 -4.3 -10.2 -29.1 -19.5 -20.1 -10.7 -13.1 -13.5 -23.3
97.7 109.1 108.2 106.2 105.8 102.3 105.4 90.1 93.1 94.5 92.4 102.2
5.6 26.4 -3.5 3.0 -4.9 -10.2 -1.6 -16.5 -5.5 1.1 -10 -9.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,847 1,666 2,079 1,846 2,127 1,894 1,935 1,623 1,589 2,606 2,109 1,784
-4.4 -34.4 13.2 0 16.2 10.4 5.5 7.6 -6.1 72.4 27.4 2.4
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.4 -28.5 815.4 28.2 -51.4
1,708 1,498 1,957 1,754 1,877 1,682 1,576 1,531 1,518 1,818 1,946 1,660
-9.2 -18.8 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.4 14.3 -4.7 27.5 27.3 11.6
89.8 83.5 100.4 98.2 101.6 102.0 108.0 100.1 88.2 108.9 101.4 108.9
-8.1 -23.5 -7.2 -7.5 -4 -0.3 2.5 11.1 -5.3 15.2 9.7 6.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
1,716 1,848 3,029 2,283 1,842 2,001 1,802 4,097 1,833 1,942 2,355 1,897
-7.1 10.9 45.7 23.7 -13.4 5.7 -6.9 152.3 15.3 -25.5 11.7 6.3
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 136
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 9.5
1,628 1,728 2,016 2,187 1,726 1,910 1,713 1,556 1,754 1,731 1,928 1,761
-4.7 15.4 3.0 24.7 -8.1 13.6 8.7 1.6 15.6 -4.8 -0.9 6.1
88.4 93.8 107.6 108.7 107.2 104.4 111.1 90.2 99.7 99.4 112.1 123.9
-1.6 12.3 7.2 10.7 5.5 2.4 2.9 -9.9 13.0 -8.7 10.6 13.8
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
Statistical Appendices
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received Period
Type of order Type of order Domestic Value of construction construction Public Private Public Private orders y-o-y completed y-o-y received change (%) y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y (Total) change (%) change (%) change (%) change (%) change (%) (Total)
2012 2013 2014p
88,713 97,938 98,255
-3.3 10.4 0.3
33,807 34,532 31,963
-3.7 2.1 -7.4
50,622 59,492 62,261
-2.0 17.5 4.7
89,395 75,644 88,423
-6.2 -15.4 16.8
26,071 24,574 26,568
-8.9 -5.7 7.9
59,811 48,888 59,951
-3.3 -18.3 22.6
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,145 25,707 23,679 28,407
4.5 14.7 10.9 10.6
7,005 9,345 8,083 10,099
-5.9 5.1 6.4 2.3
12,375 15,377 14,674 17,066
13.6 23.6 15.8 16.8
13,425 18,143 16,454 27,621
-40.8 -29.5 -10.6 22.2
4,289 5,348 4,910 10,025
-24.1 -4.0 -9.1 6.2
8,781 12,108 11,165 16,832
-46.2 -36.6 -10.8 41.7
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
21,626 26,116 23,551 26,962
7.4 1.6 -0.5 -5.1
7,144 8,697 7,236 8,886
2.0 -6.9 -10.5 -12.0
13,630 16,470 15,321 16,840
10.1 7.1 4.4 -1.3
15,501 22,881 23,961 26,081
15.5 26.1 45.6 -5.7
5,968 6,578 5,219 8,802
39.1 23.0 6.3 -12.5
9,102 16,002 18,144 16,703
3.6 32.2 62.5 -0.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,796 6,035 7,444 6,844 7,307 8,259 7,037 6,582 7,732 7,343 8,098 10,235
-6.3 13.2 -4.1 -4.5 -1.8 -12.6 4.2 -4.6 -0.5 -7.8 3.0 -8.1
2,123 2,373 2,945 2,644 2,873 3,374 2,372 2,322 2,904 2,591 3,003 4,282
-12.9 17.0 3.1 -3.6 3.0 -10.2 -0.3 -5.6 2.1 -10.7 -5.3 -9.9
3,373 3,405 4,115 3,903 4,106 4,431 4,281 3,943 4,452 4,452 4,773 5,387
-3.3 11.3 -8.2 -4.0 -3.4 -11.8 5.4 -3.8 0.3 -4.7 11.2 -6.0
7,468 8,488 6,714 6,428 7,310 11,993 6,823 5,390 6,181 5,800 7,239 9,556
52.0 108.1 -8.6 -4.2 2.3 4.6 32.3 -28.8 -19.9 -22.6 -19.9 -42.8
2,034 2,218 1,402 1,453 1,061 3,056 2,304 1,316 1,780 1,970 2,105 5,366
54.6 57.5 0.6 1.7 -43.9 2.2 24.2 -12.5 -46.9 -14.9 -29.5 -13.1
5,269 6,121 4,918 4,461 6,133 8,505 4,329 4,032 4,161 3,787 4,798 3,290
81.4 144.1 -13.6 -3.6 29.4 2.7 39.9 -30.3 4.2 -24.1 -18.3 -64.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,266 6,222 7,657 8,089 8,142 9,476 7,839 7,657 8,183 8,628 9,083 10,696
8.1 3.1 2.9 18.2 11.4 14.7 11.4 16.3 5.8 17.5 12.2 4.5
2,072 2,345 2,589 2,839 2,805 3,700 2,643 2,561 2,878 2,958 3,124 4,017
-2.4 -1.2 -12.1 7.4 -2.4 9.7 11.5 10.3 -0.9 14.2 4.0 -6.2
3,956 3,650 4,769 4,954 5,062 5,361 4,885 4,810 4,979 5,329 5,625 6,112
17.3 7.2 15.9 26.9 23.3 21.0 14.1 22.0 11.8 19.7 17.8 13.5
3,546 4,431 5,447 4,946 6,073 7,124 5,675 4,708 6,070 7,346 7,895 12,379
-52.5 -47.8 -18.9 -23.1 -16.9 -40.6 -16.8 -12.6 -1.8 26.7 9.1 29.5
1,289 1,287 1,713 1,558 1,559 2,231 1,412 1,493 2,004 1,500 2,648 5,877
-36.6 -42.0 22.1 7.2 47.0 -27.0 -38.7 13.5 12.6 -23.9 25.8 9.5
2,108 2,992 3,680 2,962 4,393 4,753 4,153 3,171 3,840 5,756 5,004 6,070
-60.0 -51.1 -25.2 -33.6 -28.4 -44.1 -4.1 -21.4 -7.7 52.0 4.3 84.5
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11P 12P
7,034 6,654 7,938 8,457 8,173 9,486 7,896 7,705 7,950 8,239 8,339 10,384
12.3 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 -2.9 -4.5 -8.2 -2.9
2,310 2,207 2,627 2,737 2,580 3,380 2,427 2,320 2,489 2,532 2,673 3,681
11.5 -5.9 1.5 -3.6 -8.0 -8.7 -8.2 -9.4 -13.5 -14.4 -14.4 -8.4
4,434 4,226 4,971 5,445 5,302 5,723 5,134 5,101 5,085 5,369 5,293 6,178
12.1 15.8 4.2 9.9 4.8 6.7 5.1 6.1 2.1 0.7 -5.9 1.1
5,300 5,393 4,807 7,290 6,427 9,163 6,902 8,679 8,379 7,755 6,315 12,012
49.5 21.7 -11.8 47.4 5.8 28.6 21.6 84.3 38.0 5.6 -20.0 -3.3
2,102 2,242 1,625 1,892 2,000 2,686 1,555 1,633 2,031 1,416 1,895 5,491
62.9 74.2 -5.2 21.4 28.3 20.4 10.1 9.4 1.3 -5.6 -28.5 -7.2
3,026 3,001 3,075 5,388 4,359 6,256 5,281 6,835 6,029 6,157 4,303 6,244
43.5 0.3 -16.4 81.9 -0.8 31.6 27.1 115.5 57.0 7.0 -14.0 2.8
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
57
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI Period
Leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical Coincident index indicator of (2010=100) coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.2 101.5 101.6 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.4
100.8 100.7 100.4 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.3 98.1
103.3 103.4 104.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.5 106.9 106.8 107.2
101.1 100.9 101.0 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.5 100.5
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.2 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.5 107.5 107.9 108.0 107.8 108.1 108.8 109.5
98.5 99.2 99.2 99.4 99.1 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9 98.8 99.1 99.4
107.3 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.9 109.8 110.3 110.2 110.8 111.4
100.2 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.0
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.0
99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 99.7 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.5
111.7 112.2 112.3 112.9 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.7
100.0 100.0 99.7 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.4
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
117.6 118.0 118.2 118.8 119.1 119.8 120.3 121.7 123.0 123.7 124.1 124.8
101.6 101.5 101.3 101.5 101.3 101.6 101.6 102.4 103.1 103.3 103.3 103.5
117.5 117.9 118.4 118.5 118.5 118.9 119.5 120.2 120.5 120.5 120.7 121.6
100.7 100.6 100.7 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.5 100.3 100.0 99.8 100.1
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0
2015 1 2
-
-
-
-
94.0 -
90.3 92.1
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
58
Statistical Appendices
9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)
Period
Current account
Goods
2012 2013 2014p
50,835.0 79,883.6 89,418.8
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
554,103.2 536,559.0 528,656.6
-5,213.6 -7,927.4 -8,163.4
12,116.7 11,424.8 10,197.7
-5,474.1 -4,182.3 -5,501.8
144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6
142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7
-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0
2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9
-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7
14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0
147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9
133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9
-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7
1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2
-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4
15,185.9 24,240.4 22,565.7 27,426.8
17,745.2 26,428.1 21,676.0 27,037.0
152,688.6 159,385.4 153,482.3 155,986.6
134,943.4 132,957.3 131,806.3 128,949.6
-3,503.4 -1,838.7 -904.0 -1,917.3
1,905.8 1,330.9 3,143.5 3,817.5
-961.7 -1,679.9 -1,349.8 -1,510.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,151.2 -2,409.5 3,814.7 87.8 5,265.5 6,251.8 8,413.0 1,808.7 6,665.1 7,494.2 8,293.6 7,301.3
-1,727.4 -863.1 4,252.0 -222.9 3,387.9 5,370.0 7,529.7 2,118.1 6,246.8 7,472.8 8,580.9 7,261.2
44,738.1 48,304.2 51,217.8 49,330.2 50,854.0 50,649.8 51,530.7 47,379.6 50,709.2 53,409.2 54,492.4 50,894.0
46,465.5 49,167.3 46,965.8 49,553.1 47,466.1 45,279.8 44,001.0 45,261.5 44,462.4 45,936.4 45,911.5 43,632.8
-1,017.2 -2,018.3 64.7 288.4 545.9 -662.3 110.0 -844.3 54.5 -415.4 -833.9 -485.7
1,243.3 873.2 -71.2 364.5 1,660.1 1,917.7 1,260.7 965.2 746.3 867.8 988.6 1,300.5
-649.9 -401.3 -430.8 -342.2 -328.4 -373.6 -487.4 -430.3 -382.5 -431.0 -442.0 -774.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,075.6 2,473.1 7,065.6 5,334.6 9,886.4 7,126.4 7,323.2 6,745.6 8,181.6 11,108.9 6,229.9 6,597.3
3,953.0 3,256.4 7,088.6 5,510.6 9,363.1 5,711.6 7,462.2 7,271.4 8,572.1 9,767.8 8,024.8 6,799.4
51,765.7 44,916.0 51,141.6 51,704.7 53,477.3 48,883.9 53,326.3 49,899.2 50,490.3 56,820.8 52,702.3 53,028.8
47,812.7 41,659.6 44,053.0 46,194.1 44,114.2 43,172.3 45,864.1 42,627.8 41,918.2 47,053.0 44,677.5 46,229.4
-1,556.6 -1,144.9 33.6 496.2 -28.7 180.4 -879.0 -869.3 -330.2 405.8 -2,088.9 -717.6
1,169.5 623.3 19.6 -482.0 721.6 1,420.9 1,032.7 665.9 648.0 1,335.7 674.8 1,225.7
-490.3 -261.7 -76.2 -190.2 -169.6 -186.5 -292.7 -322.4 -708.3 -400.4 -380.8 -710.2
2014P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,323.7 4,537.5 7,324.7 7,163.1 9,119.2 7,958.1 7,881.7 7,235.1 7,448.9 8,883.2 11,322.1 7,221.5
4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,133.5 6,646.6 6,794.4 7,367.3 7,514.3 8,487.1 10,031.4 8,518.5
50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,383.0 50,281.0 53,811.7 48,920.1 50,750.5 51,970.8 50,063.0 53,952.8
46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,249.5 43,634.4 47,017.3 41,552.8 43,236.2 43,483.7 40,031.6 45,434.3
-1,873.7 -1,020.3 -609.4 -1,004.4 -297.7 -536.6 31.0 -694.3 -240.7 -212.6 -164.6 -1,540.1
1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1 2,225.5 1,488.8 1,048.0 606.7 967.6 1,667.5 1,182.4
-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.7 -377.4 -432.5 -485.9 -431.4 -358.9 -212.2 -939.3
Exports
Imports
49,406.0 80,568.6 92,886.3
603,509.2 617,127.6 621,542.9
-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1
1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1
2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
59
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)
Period
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of nonfinancial assets
Reserve assets
2012 2013 2014p
-51,582.4 -80,104.6 -90,383.3
-21,136.2 -15,593.2 -20,659.5
6,747.8 -9,344.5 -33,605.3
2,627.8 4,410.3 3,704.9
-26,637.3 -43,281.1 -21,937.9
-41.7 -27.0 -9.0
-13,184.5 -16,296.1 -17,885.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2
-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9
14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1
-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,448.7 -19,645.6 -22,675.5 -26,334.8
-3,878.4 -3,397.8 -3,426.8 -4,890.2
-7,285.9 -9,776.5 9,375.4 -1,657.5
1,395.8 -513.6 1,656.3 1,871.8
2,880.2 -10,063.8 -23,611.4 -12,486.1
-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
-4,560.4 4,106.1 -6,669.0 -9,172.8
2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-17177.8 -24,208.1 -22,481.5 -26,515.9
-3,657.7 -7,552.9 -3,908.6 -5,540.3
-13,596.7 -5,867.2 -4,762.4 -9,379.0
892.6 2,083.5 1,531.9 -803.1
6,207.4 -1,701.9 -9,510.4 -16,933.0
-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.2
-7,023.4 -11,169.6 -5,832.0 6,139.5
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,295.1 435.0 -3,704.3 1,566.7 -2,645.3 -3,200.1 -9,113.6 -3,219.3 -5,763.2 -7,172.4 -9,211.9 -8,258.9
-2,022.6 -3,631.3 -1,925.7 -1,225.9 -1,687.4 -1,144.0 -1,695.4 -1,719.8 -2,290.2 -1,001.3 -1,599.7 -1,192.9
7,904.1 6,238.0 617.5 -3,114.3 -1,893.6 -1,795.1 1,730.8 646.6 1,800.3 -4,742.4 -3,886.7 3,242.6
452.6 245.8 500.1 215.0 -480.7 -4.9 358.8 -35.5 272.0 -137.8 631.8 610.6
-5,167.1 -190.9 -1,137.1 5,832.0 147.6 201.5 -8,171.9 -1,016.0 -4,059.3 185.2 -1,759.5 -11,501.8
-9.6 -5.8 -3.8 0.3 -1.0 -6.0 -5.5 -1.9 -1.6 -4.9 0.7 -2.6
-2,462.1 -2,226.6 -1,759.1 -140.1 1,268.8 -457.6 -1,335.9 -1,094.6 -1,486.0 -1,476.1 -2,597.8 582.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,694.7 -1,707.1 -7,046.9 -2,435.7 -12,288.9 -4,921.0 -9,446.1 -6,236.3 -6,993.1 -10,139.4 -7,433.1 -8,762.3
-802.5 -909.3 -2,166.6 401.3 -2,175.6 -1,623.5 -796.8 -1,157.2 -1,472.8 -340.7 -2,243.9 -2,305.6
-5,964.7 2,149.9 -3,471.1 -2,060.8 -1,642.1 -6,073.6 1,785.8 1,584.1 6,005.5 4,942.8 -1,557.9 -5,042.4
579.6 651.0 165.2 -301.1 719.1 -931.6 431.4 210.0 1,014.9 805.3 466.9 599.6
4,123.7 -1,158.3 -85.2 -1,382.5 -8,189.7 -491.6 -8,821.6 -5,172.4 -9,617.4 -10,754.2 -1,248.6 -483.3
-8.0 -2.9 8.2 -1.6 -11.0 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
-630.8 -2,440.4 -1,489.2 907.4 -1,000.6 4,199.3 -2,044.9 -1,700.8 -2,923.3 -4,792.6 -2,849.6 -1,530.6
2014P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -8,132.4 -9,836.9 -5,916.9 -7,802.4 -8,762.2 -6,801.5 -9,915.5 -9,798.9
529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8 -2,056.3 -1,011.5 -749.5 -2,147.6 -2,088.9 -2,098.2 -1,353.2
-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0 -4,218.5 -1,743.7 504.4 -3,523.1 -382.4 -2,835.6 -6,161.0
155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5 690.9 504.1 557.7 470.1 -570.7 -81.8 -150.6
1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 3,950.6 283.1 -338.1 -7,288.1 -1,884.2 -4,007.0 -7,797.4 -5,128.6
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -4.2
-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7 -826.9 -1,677.4 247.5 2,897.5 2,994.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
Statistical Appendices
11. Prices (2010=100)
Consumer Prices Commodities Services
All Items
Period
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices All Items Commodities
Core
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012
106.3
2.2
108.9
3.0
104.2
1.4
104.9
1.6
107.5
0.7
108.9
0.2
2013
107.7
1.3
110.1
1.0
105.8
1.5
106.6
1.6
105.7
-1.6
106.2
-2.5
2014
109.0
1.3
111.1
0.9
107.4
1.6
108.8
2.0
105.2
-0.5
104.8
-1.4
2012 1
105.7
3.4
107.9
4.4
103.9
2.7
104.6
3.2
107.7
3.2
109.5
3.6
2
106.1
3.1
108.5
3.9
104.2
2.5
104.7
2.5
108.4
3.1
110.5
3.6
3
106.0
2.6
109.2
4.1
103.5
1.4
104.3
1.9
108.9
2.4
111.2
2.7
4
106.0
2.5
108.9
4.1
103.7
1.3
104.4
1.8
109.0
1.9
111.1
1.9
5
106.2
2.5
109.2
4.3
103.9
1.3
104.6
1.6
108.4
1.0
110.3
0.7
6
106.1
2.2
108.8
3.6
104.0
1.2
104.9
1.5
107.1
0.0
108.4
-0.7
7
105.9
1.5
107.9
1.9
104.2
1.1
104.9
1.2
106.6
-0.6
107.6
-1.5
8
106.3
1.2
108.8
1.6
104.4
1.1
105.1
1.3
107.2
-0.1
108.6
-0.9
9
107.0
2.0
110.4
3.1
104.4
1.3
105.2
1.4
107.6
0.2
109.2
-0.4
10
106.9
2.1
109.8
3.0
104.6
1.4
105.2
1.5
106.8
-0.5
107.8
-1.4
11
106.5
1.6
108.9
2.0
104.6
1.3
105.3
1.3
106.1
-0.9
106.8
-1.9
12
106.7
1.4
109.0
1.6
104.8
1.3
105.5
1.2
105.8
-1.2
106.4
-2.3
2013 1
107.3
1.6
109.9
1.7
105.3
1.5
105.9
1.3
106.0
-1.6
106.8
-2.5
2
107.7
1.6
110.4
1.6
105.6
1.5
106.2
1.4
106.7
-1.6
107.8
-2.5
3
107.6
1.5
110.4
1.1
105.4
1.7
106.0
1.6
106.3
-2.4
107.1
-3.7
4
107.5
1.3
109.9
0.9
105.6
1.7
106.0
1.6
105.9
-2.8
106.6
-4.1
5
107.5
1.1
109.6
0.4
105.7
1.8
106.4
1.7
105.6
-2.6
106.1
-3.8
6
107.3
1.2
109.4
0.7
105.7
1.6
106.6
1.6
105.5
-1.4
106.0
-2.2
7
107.6
1.6
109.7
1.7
105.9
1.5
106.7
1.7
105.5
-1.0
106.0
-1.6
8
107.9
1.5
110.3
1.5
106.1
1.5
106.7
1.5
105.8
-1.3
106.2
-2.1
9
108.1
1.0
110.9
0.4
106.0
1.5
107.0
1.7
105.7
-1.8
106.1
-2.8
10
107.8
0.9
110.1
0.3
106.0
1.4
107.1
1.8
105.3
-1.4
105.5
-2.2
11
107.8
1.2
110.1
1.0
106.0
1.3
107.4
2.0
105.1
-0.9
105.2
-1.5
12
107.9
1.1
110.2
0.9
106.2
1.3
107.5
1.9
105.4
-0.4
105.5
-0.9
2014 1
108.5
1.1
110.9
0.9
106.6
1.3
107.7
1.7
105.6
-0.3
105.7
-1.0
2
108.8
1.0
111.4
0.9
106.7
1.1
108.0
1.7
105.8
-0.9
105.9
-1.7
3
109.0
1.3
111.6
1.1
107.0
1.5
108.3
2.1
105.7
-0.5
105.7
-1.3
4
109.1
1.5
111.3
1.3
107.3
1.6
108.5
2.3
105.6
-0.3
105.4
-1.1
5
109.2
1.7
111.5
1.7
107.5
1.6
108.8
2.2
105.5
0.0
105.3
-0.7
6
109.1
1.7
111.2
1.7
107.4
1.6
108.9
2.1
105.6
0.1
105.4
-0.6
7
109.3
1.6
111.2
1.4
107.7
1.7
109.1
2.2
105.7
0.2
105.5
-0.4
8
109.5
1.4
111.4
1.0
107.9
1.7
109.2
2.4
105.6
-0.2
105.1
-1.1
9
109.4
1.1
111.5
0.5
107.8
1.7
109.1
1.9
105.2
-0.5
104.7
-1.3
10
109.1
1.2
110.6
0.5
107.8
1.7
109.1
1.8
104.5
-0.8
103.6
-1.8
11
108.8
1.0
110.2
0.2
107.7
1.6
109.1
1.6
104.1
-0.9
103.1
-2.0
12
108.8
0.8
110.1
0.0
107.8
1.6
109.3
1.6
103.2
-2.0
101.9
-3.4
Source: The Bank of Korea
61
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
12. Employment Economically active persons (thousand)
Period
All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Employed persons (thousand) Manufacturing SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment rate (%)
2012
25,501
1.6
24,681
1.8
4,105
0.3
19,033
2.4
3.2
2013
25,873
1.5
25,066
1.6
4,184
1.9
19,347
1.6
3.1
2014
26,536
2.6
25,599
2.1
4,330
3.5
19,805
2.4
3.5
2012 1
24,585
2.0
23,732
2.3
4,034
-2.8
18,631
3.5
3.5
2
24,825
1.6
23,783
1.9
4,060
-2.1
18,599
3.2
4.2
3
25,210
1.2
24,265
1.8
4,018
-2.5
18,870
3.4
3.7
4
25,653
1.6
24,758
1.9
4,027
-2.0
19,103
3.1
3.5
5
25,939
1.8
25,133
1.9
4,071
-1.6
19,292
3.0
3.1
6
25,939
1.4
25,117
1.5
4,084
-1.2
19,248
2.3
3.2
7
25,901
1.7
25,106
1.9
4,114
0.8
19,265
2.2
3.1
8
25,623
1.4
24,859
1.5
4,111
2.0
19,040
1.6
3.0
9
25,755
2.7
25,003
2.8
4,153
3.5
19,125
2.8
2.9
10
25,787
1.5
25,069
1.6
4,188
3.6
19,128
1.4
2.8
11
25,652
1.3
24,941
1.4
4,218
4.0
19,088
0.9
2.8
12
25,139
1.0
24,402
1.1
4,183
2.8
19,010
0.9
2.9
2013 1
24,901
1.3
24,054
1.4
4,189
3.9
18,810
1.0
3.4
2
24,973
0.6
23,984
0.8
4,139
1.9
18,736
0.7
4.0
3
25,397
0.7
24,514
1.0
4,141
3.1
18,989
0.6
3.5
4
25,928
1.1
25,103
1.4
4,192
4.1
19,303
1.0
3.2
5
26,195
1.0
25,398
1.1
4,175
2.6
19,492
1.0
3.0
6
26,291
1.4
25,478
1.4
4,180
2.3
19,531
1.5
3.1
7
26,301
1.5
25,473
1.5
4,167
1.3
19,577
1.6
3.1
8
26,074
1.7
25,291
1.7
4,116
0.1
19,438
2.1
3.0
9
26,186
1.7
25,466
1.9
4,174
0.5
19,540
2.2
2.7
10
26,268
1.9
25,545
1.9
4,218
0.7
19,558
2.2
2.8
11
26,230
2.3
25,530
2.4
4,253
0.8
19,670
3.0
2.7
12
25,736
2.4
24,962
2.3
4,264
2.0
19,514
2.7
3.0
2014 1
25,650
3.0
24,759
2.9
4,280
2.2
19,376
3.0
3.5
2
25,997
4.1
24,819
3.5
4,274
3.3
19,407
3.6
4.5
3
26,187
3.1
25,163
2.6
4,284
3.5
19,538
2.9
3.9
4
26,714
3.0
25,684
2.3
4,288
2.3
19,819
2.7
3.9
5
26,762
2.2
25,811
1.6
4,324
3.6
19,815
1.7
3.6
6
26,825
2.0
25,875
1.6
4,345
3.9
19,841
1.6
3.5
7
26,891
2.2
25,979
2.0
4,358
4.6
20,003
2.2
3.4
8
26,775
2.7
25,885
2.3
4,335
5.3
19,940
2.6
3.3
9
26,766
2.2
25,917
1.8
4,347
4.1
19,949
2.1
3.2
10
26,809
2.1
25,951
1.6
4,361
3.4
19,973
2.1
3.2
11
26,786
2.1
25,968
1.7
4,355
2.4
20,098
2.2
3.1
12
26,270
2.1
25,384
1.7
4,406
3.3
19,896
2.0
3.4
2015 1
26,094
1.7
25,106
1.4
4,421
3.3
19,693
1.6
3.8
Source: Statistics Korea
62
Statistical Appendices
13. Financial indicators (period average)
Period
Yields(%) Corporate bonds Treasury bonds (3 years, AA-) (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Stock KOSPI(endperiod)
Call rate (1 day)
CDs (91 days)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59
2015 1
2.0
2.1
2.4
2.0
2.2
1,949.26
Source: The Bank of Korea
63
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • Feb 2015
14. Monetary indicators (billion won)
Period
Reserve money y-o-y change (%)
M1
M2
2012
82,131.1
9.2
441,963.6
3.8
1,798,625.7
5.2
2,379,518.7
7.8
2013
91,379.4
11.3
484,062.9
9.5
1,885,781.3
4.8
2,543,299.4
6.9
2012 1
81,635.4
11.0
439,352.9
2.3
1,757,058.7
4.8
2,292,213.5
6.5
2
81,655.3
8.3
437,193.9
1.1
1,762,988.4
5.3
2,302,065.8
7.2
3
79,068.0
8.3
440,075.4
2.1
1,773,172.9
5.7
2,341,626.9
8.8
4
80,641.8
10.2
437,445.3
2.8
1,777,114.7
5.5
2,349,723.2
8.6
5
80,547.7
9.1
438,795.3
3.5
1,784,220.5
5.5
2,357,701.0
8.4
6
81,804.0
9.5
441,611.0
4.7
1,796,981.5
5.9
2,377,071.3
8.5
7
81,555.7
10.1
441,760.6
5.4
1,807,289.2
6.0
2,393,737.7
8.4
8
82,369.1
8.9
439,573.2
4.0
1,817,134.9
5.7
2,405,239.9
7.8
9
82,958.7
6.4
440,034.3
3.5
1,819,290.1
5.2
2,415,263.5
7.6
10
85,078.6
10.6
444,477.8
5.5
1,822,420.9
4.6
2,424,000.4
7.1
11
82,956.5
8.3
445,463.9
5.3
1,830,280.3
4.4
2,440,062.8
7.1
12
85,302.7
9.6
457,778.9
5.8
1,835,556.7
4.5
2,455,962.9
7.3
2013 1
85,839.3
5.1
464,914.5
5.8
1,841,128.1
4.8
2,469,789.3
7.7
2
88,855.7
8.8
472,239.6
8.0
1,857,135.0
5.3
2,488,539.0
8.1
3
89,523.5
13.2
472,430.1
7.4
1,862,405.5
5.0
2,499,718.1
6.8
4
87,729.0
8.8
475,330.0
8.7
1,867,726.3
5.1
2,512,459.7
6.9
5
89,654.8
11.3
475,526.7
8.4
1,870,289.7
4.8
2,518,239.1
6.8
6
91,207.6
11.5
486,587.5
10.2
1,884,193.2
4.9
2,533,750.8
6.6
7
90,643.7
11.1
488,982.7
10.7
1,890,728.6
4.6
2,549,443.5
6.5
8
93,729.6
13.8
481,416.9
9.5
1,888,658.4
3.9
2,557,336.3
6.3
9
95,130.6
14.7
490,518.7
11.5
1,903,187.1
4.6
2,577,546.7
6.7
10
93,640.4
10.1
491,947.9
10.7
1,908,557.6
4.7
2,587,071.4
6.7
11
93,609.9
12.8
499,242.7
12.1
1,923,339.2
5.1
2,605,873.9
6.8
12
96,988.5
13.7
509,617.9
11.3
1,932,026.4
5.3
2,619,029.5
6.6
2014 1
98,541.6
14.8
515,742.5
10.9
1,937,045.6
5.2
2,635,100.1
6.7
2
100,547.9
13.2
518,475.5
9.8
1,954,340.7
5.2
2,647,674.0
6.4
3
100,624.0
12.4
520,299.0
10.1
1,964,954.0
5.5
2,659,370.7
6.4
4
98,898.5
12.7
518,809.3
9.1
1,970,361.6
5.5
2,669,341.4
6.2
5
101,791.4
13.5
523,069.9
10.0
1,982,390.9
6.0
2,684,643.9
6.6
6
101,412.3
11.2
532,041.2
9.3
1,999,376.3
6.1
2,703,088.1
6.7
7
101,164.2
11.6
534,028.8
9.2
2,013,935.1
6.5
2,725,737.6
6.9
8
107,682.4
14.9
538,640.3
11.9
2,031,777.2
7.6
2,743,972.5
7.3
y-o-y change (%)
Lf
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
9
105,354.1
10.7
548,550.8
11.8
2,037,600.8
7.1
2,759,390.8
7.1
10
107,117.5
14.4
551,416.0
12.1
2,051,149.8
7.5
2,776,971.6
7.3
11
106,667.9
13.9
562,006.2
12.6
2,083,253.5
8.3
2,817,698.0
8.1
12
110,175.6
13.6
577,721.1
13.4
2,088,729.8
8.1
2,837,910.9
8.4
Source: The Bank of Korea
64
Statistical Appendices
15. Exchange rates (end-period)
100/ \
US $/ \
Period
Euro/ \
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2012
1,071.1
-7.1
1,247.5
-16.0
1,416.3
-5.2
2013
1,055.3
-1.5
1,004.7
-19.5
1,456.3
2.8
2014
1,099.2
4.2
920.1
-8.4
1,336.5
-8.2
2012 1
1,125.0
1.0
1,473.1
8.6
1,478.2
-2.4
2
1,126.5
-0.1
1,399.2
1.3
1,516.3
-2.1
3
1,137.8
2.8
1,380.7
3.7
1,513.4
-3.2
4
1,134.2
5.8
1,412.0
7.5
1,501.7
-5.6
5
1,177.8
9.0
1,489.1
11.5
1,456.6
-6.0
6
1,153.8
7.0
1,453.8
8.8
1,435.0
-8.0
7
1,136.2
7.9
1,453.6
7.4
1,393.1
-7.6
8
1,134.6
5.9
1,444.0
3.4
1,419.6
-8.3
9
1,118.6
-5.2
1,441.1
-6.2
1,444.3
-9.8
10
1,094.1
-0.9
1,374.5
-5.7
1,418.3
-9.2
11
1,084.7
-5.7
1,320.6
-10.5
1,407.3
-8.2
12
1,071.1
-7.1
1,247.5
-16.0
1,416.3
-5.2
2013 1
1,082.7
-3.8
1,188.5
-19.3
1,469.3
-0.6
2
1,085.4
-3.6
1,176.2
-15.9
1,425.8
-6.0
3
1,112.1
-2.3
1,180.1
-14.5
1,425.2
-5.8
4
1,108.1
-2.3
1,132.0
-19.8
1,451.3
-3.4
5
1,128.3
-4.2
1,116.6
-25.0
1,471.4
1.0
6
1,149.7
-0.4
1,167.2
-19.7
1,498.2
4.4
7
1,113.6
-2.0
1,135.4
-21.9
1,476.7
6.0
8
1,110.9
-2.1
1,129.2
-21.8
1,470.6
3.6
9
1,075.6
-3.8
1,098.7
-23.8
1,451.3
0.5
10
1,061.4
-3.0
1,077.5
-21.6
1,456.6
2.7
11
1,062.1
-2.1
1,038.2
-21.4
1,444.8
2.7
12
1,055.3
-1.5
1,004.7
-19.5
1,456.3
2.8
2014 1
1,079.2
-0.3
1,043.7
-12.2
1,473.6
0.3
2
1,067.7
-1.6
1,044.8
-11.2
1,463.6
2.7
3
1,068.8
-3.9
1,038.7
-12.0
1,469.4
3.1
4
1,031.7
-6.9
1,005.3
-11.2
1,425.0
-1.8
5
1,021.6
-9.5
1,004.2
-10.1
1,389.6
-5.6
6
1,014.4
-11.8
1,000.0
-14.3
1,384.2
-7.6
7
1,024.3
-8.0
995.7
-12.3
1,371.8
-7.1
8
1,013.6
-8.8
977.6
-13.4
1,336.2
-9.1
9
1,050.6
-2.3
960.2
-12.6
1,333.3
-8.1
10
1,054.0
-0.7
964.1
-10.5
1,328.8
-8.8
11
1,101.1
3.7
933.9
-10.0
1,372.2
-5.0
12
1,099.2
4.2
920.1
-8.4
1,336.5
-8.2
2015 1
1,090.8
1.1
921.3
-11.7
1,235.7
-16.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
Seoul Plaza Seoul Plaza is located in front of the Seoul Metropolitan Library and Seoul City Hall. Originally a traffic square, the site was transformed into a plaza in 2004 for the purpose of providing the public with an open space. Seoul Plaza hosts various exhibitions, music performances and festivals, and is converted into an outdoor ice rink during the winter.
Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.37 No.2 February 2015
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.37 No.2 February 2015
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Economic News Briefing Korea Grows 0.4% in Q4 Government to Encourage Employee Stock Ownership Program Corporate Investment Boosting Program Starts February Financial Regulators to Support Fintech
Statistical Appendices
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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