ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.3 March 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol. 36 No.3 March 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation
Economic News Briefing ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
March 2014
Korea Seals FTA with Canada Public Institution Reform Plans Finalized Korea Signs Currency Swap Deal with Australia Government to Ease M&A Regulations
For free subscriptions and enquiries, please contact: Foreign Press Spokesperson’s Office Ministry of Strategy and Finance
Statistical Appendices
Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
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14. 3. 21. 오후 7:09
Hahoe masks The Hahoe mask, which is part of Korea’s rich cultural heritage, is a wooden mask used as props in traditional mask dances. Hahoe masks comes in various forms, each of which represents a certain social position or occupation. Examples include the yangbantal (nobleman),
gaksital (bride) and baekjeongtal (butcher).
Useful economy-related websites
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Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:09
contents
02 The Green Book : Current Economic Trends 03 04 10 12 15 17 20 22 24 28
32 34
39
44
Overview 1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports 6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
46 Policy Issues 47
Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation
53 Economic News Briefing 57 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Board Coordinators Editor
EB 3월호 내지.indd 2
Cho Byung-Koo (KDI), Kim Yong-Jin (MOSF) Lauren Kang (MOSF), Lee Seong-Pyo (KDI), Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF), Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) David Friedman (MOSF)
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Th Gr e ee nB oo k Cu rre nt
2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Ec on om ic T ren ds
Overview
1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports
6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
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Current Economic Trends
OVERVIEW Employment and inflation remain stable in the economy, with output rising in all sectors including mining and manufacturing, services, construction and public administration.
Exports rose 1.6 percent in February, led by shipments of IT products as well as exports to the EU and the ASEAN countries. The trade balance remained in the black at US$0.93 billion.
The economy added 705,000 jobs year-on-year in January, up from 560,000 in the previous month.
Volatility increased in the stock markets in February, due to the US government’s winding down of its quantitative easing program, instability in the emerging markets, and improving economic data in major countries. The value of the won improved slightly.
Consumer price inflation in February was 1.0 percent, down from 1.1 percent in January. Mining and manufacturing production grew 0.1 percent in January, led by mobile phones and automobiles. Service output increased 0.9 percent, as wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants improved due to the Lunar New Year effect. Retail sales increased at the fastest pace in 34 months, rising 2.4 percent month-on-month in January. An increase in car sales following the special consumption tax cut (7% > 6%) helped recover from the previous month’s fall in retail sales (down 1.1%). Facility investment fell 4.5 percent in January. The value of construction completed increased 9.7 percent, growing at the fastest pace since December 2011. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.3 points month-on-month, while the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index remained unchanged in January.
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Housing prices continued to increase month-onmonth in February (0.24% > 0.20%) . Jeonse prices (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) also continued to rise, but at a slower pace (0.59% > 0.49%) .
3 The Green Book
k
The Green Book :
The Korean economy has showed clear signs of recovery. However, recovery in the private sector including investment has yet to firmly take hold, and external uncertainties concerning US quantitative easing risks, unstable emerging markets and the weak yen remain. The Korean government will closely monitor global and domestic economic situations and prepare for external shocks, while continue to work on boosting domestic demand and support the working class. The government will also focus on successfully implementing the Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
1. External economic situation
The global economy, led by the US and other advanced economies, continues to recover. However, downside risk factors remain as the US Fed continues to wind down its monetary stimulus, which is leading to worries of a slowdown in emerging economies. On January 29, the US FOMC decided to further reduce its bond-buying program from US$75 billion per month to US$65 billion. The Ukraine crisis also poses a risk to the global economy, as political turmoil in the nation is causing tensions to heighten in related nations, including the US and Russia.
4 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Other potential risk factors remain as Abenomics continues to run its course, China faces the possibility that its new growth strategy will lead to a slowdown, and the eurozone continues to wrestle with high unemployment and low inflation.
World GDP growth 6
(%)
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2001
EB 3월호 내지.indd 4
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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US The US economy (quarter-on-quarter, annualized) grew 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, slowing from 4.1 percent in the third quarter due in part to the cold weather. However, the US economy will continue to recover, led by private consumption and employment.
Retail sales in January declined 0.4 percent from the previous month, but the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 81.2 in January to 81.6 in February, signaling a steady recovery in consumption. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
Contribution to growth rate (Q3 > Q4, %p)
73.8 (Jan 2013) > 78.6 (Mar) > 84.5 (May) > 85.1 (Jul) > 77.5
1.36 > 1.73 (private consumption), 0.58 > 0.87 (corporate
(Sep) > 75.1 (Nov) > 81.2 (Jan 2014) > 81.6 (Feb)
investment), 0.31 > -0.29 (housing investment), 1.67 > 0.14 (inventory investment), 0.14 > 0.99 (net exports), 0.08 > -1.05 (government spending)
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (q-o-q, %) 1.7 (Q3 2012) > 1.9 (Q4) > 3.4 (Q1 2013) > 3.6 (Q2) > 2.5 (Q3) 0.2 (Oct 2013) > 0.0 (Nov) > -0.1 (Dec)
5 The Green Book
Industrial production in January declined 0.3 percent, in contrast to growing 0.3 percent in the previous month. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which forecasts business sentiment, rose from 51.3 in January to 53.2 in February.
The housing market sent mixed signals. Existing home sales fell 5.1 percent month-on-month in January, while new home sales surged 12.2 percent. Housing prices declined 0.1 percent in December 2013.
ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.1 (Jan 2013) > 51.3 (Mar) > 49.0 (May) > 55.4 (Jul) >
New home sales (m-o-m, %)
56.2 (Sep) > 56.4 (Oct) > 57.3 (Nov) > 56.5 (Dec) > 51.3
15.7 (Jan 2013) > -0.4 (Mar) > -3.8 (May) > -17.1 (Jul) > 3.9
(Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb)
(Sep) > -1.8 (Nov) > -3.8 (Dec) > 12.2 (Jan 2014)
US GDP growth and industrial production Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2001.1Q
2002.1Q
2003.1Q
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
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2004.1Q
2005.1Q
2006.1Q
2007.1Q
2008.1Q
2009.1Q
2010.1Q
2011.1Q
2012.1Q
2013.1Q
Industrial production (q-o-q)
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
The labor market is recovering at a strong pace, with the economy adding 175,000 jobs in February, up from 129,000 in the previous month and beating market expectations (149,000). However, the unemployment rate inched up to 6.7 percent. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousand) 148 (Jan 2013) > 142 (Mar) > 176 (May) > 89 (Jul) > 175 (Sep) > 200 (Oct) > 274 (Nov) > 84 (Dec) > 129 (Jan 2014) > 175 (Feb) Nonfarm payroll increase in February by industry (Out of 175,000 jobs added, thousand) 162 (private sector): 1 (mining), 6 (manufacturing), 15 (construction), 140 (service)
6
13 (public sector)
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Source: US Department of Labor 600
(thousand)
(%) 10
400
8
200 0
6
-200
4
-400 -600
2
-800 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Unemployment rate (right)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
2014¹ Jan Feb
Real GDP²
1.8
2.8
0.1
1.9
1.1
2.5
4.1
2.4
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
2.5
2.2
1.7
2.0
2.3
1.8
2.0
2.6
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
7.6
7.3
9.8
2.6
-4.6
4.7
4.8
7.3
-
-
-
- Housing construction investment
0.5
12.9
19.8
12.0
12.5
14.2
10.3
-8.7
-
-
-
Industrial production
4.1
3.8
0.6
0.3
1.0
0.3
0.6
1.7
0.3
-0.3
-
Retail sales
8.0
5.0
1.5
0.3
1.0
0.9
1.1
1.0
0.3
0.0
-
Existing home sales
2.4
9.9
3.3
8.9
1.0
2.3
5.9
-7.8
0.1
-5.1
-
Unemployment rate³
9.0
8.1
7.8
7.4
7.7
7.6
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.7
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
3.2
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.6
-
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
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China The Chinese economy grew 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, a slight slowdown compared to the 7.8 percent growth seen in the third quarter, and manufacturing was somewhat poor in the first two months of 2014. The manufacturing PMI fell for three consecutive months. Manufacturing PMI (base=50)
51.4 (Oct 2013) > 51.4 (Nov) > 51.0 (Dec) > 50.5 (Jan 2014) > 50.2 (Feb) The Chinese government announced a growth target of 7.5 percent for 2014 at the National People’s Congress on March 5.
7
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4 Real GDP
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
2014¹ Jan Feb
9.3
7.7
7.9
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.8
7.7
-
-
-
Industrial production
13.9
10.0
10.0
9.7
9.5
9.1
10.1
10.0
9.7
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
23.8
20.6
20.6
19.6
20.9
20.1
20.2
19.6
19.6
-
-
Retail sales
17.1
14.3
14.9
13.1
12.4
13.0
13.3
13.5
13.6
-
-
Exports
-18.1
20.7
8.3
9.5
8.6
18.9
4.2
4.0
7.5
4.3
10.6
Consumer prices²
5.4
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
Producer prices²
6.0
-1.7
-2.3
-1.9
-1.7
-2.7
-1.7
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-2.0
The Green Book
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 18
(%)
(%)
70
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10 0
4 2001.Q1
2002.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
EB 3월호 내지.indd 7
2003.Q1
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Japan Japan’s economic growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter of 2013, growing 0.2 percent quarter-onquarter. However, retail sales improved in January as demand increased ahead of a sales tax hike scheduled for April. The consumer price index (CPI) continunued to rise in January, increasing by 1.4 percent while the core CPI increased by 1.3 percent. On February 18, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to continue its monetary stimulus program at an annual pace of 60 to 70 trillion yen, and also to double the size of its private loan program.
8 (Percentage change from previous period)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 Annual
2012¹ Annual Q4
2013¹ Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
2014¹ Jan
Real GDP
-0.5
1.4
0.1
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.2
0.2
-
-
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.3
-1.9
1.5
2.2
1.5
1.7
0.7
1.1
4.0
Retail sales
-1.2
1.6
-0.2
0.4
0.6
1.1
-0.2
0.0
-1.1
1.4
Exports (y-o-y)
-2.7
-2.8
-5.5
9.6
1.2
7.1
12.8
17.4
15.3
9.5
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.4
1. Preliminary Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 6 (%)
(%) 4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0 -5
-2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6
-25
2001.Q1
2002.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
EB 3월호 내지.indd 8
2003.Q1
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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Eurozone The eurozone’s recovery is gathering momentum, led by Germany, showing positive growth for three consecutive quarters since the second quarter of 2013. However, risk factors remain, such as the continuing high unemployment and low inflation. Manufacturing PMI (base=50)
47.9 (Jan 2013) > 46.8 (Mar) > 48.3 (May) > 50.3 (Jul) > 51.1 (Sep) > 51.3 (Oct) > 51.6 (Nov) > 52.7 (Dec) > 54.0 (Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb) Unemployment rate (%) 12.0 (Jan 2013) > 12.1 (Mar) > 12.1 (May) > 12.1 (Jul) > 12.1 (Aug) > 12.2 (Sep) > 12.0 (Oct) > 12.0 (Nov) > 12.0 (Dec) > 12.0 (Jan 2014)
9
(Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP
1.7
Industrial production
-0.6
Annual
Q1
Q2
2013¹ Q3
Q4
Dec
2014¹ Jan
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
-
-
-0.5
3.5
-2.4
-2.4
-2.4
0.4
0.7
0.0
0.3
-0.8
-
Retail sales
-0.5
-1.7
-1.5
-0.9
0.2
0.2
0.4
-0.7
-1.6
-
Exports (y-o-y)
13.3
1.8
5.5
0.8
-5.1
-3.2
-2.0
0.8
3.8
-
2.7
2.5
2.3
1.3
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.8
0.7
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
The Green Book
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q4
1. Preliminary Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat 3
(%)
(%)
2
10 8 6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8
-3 2001.Q1
-10 2002.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
EB 3월호 내지.indd 9
2003.Q1
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
2. Private consumption
Private consumption in the fourth quarter of 2013 (advanced estimates GDP) increased 0.9 percent compared to the previous quarter and 2.2 percent compared to a year ago.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011
10
2012¹
2013¹
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Private consumption²
2.4
0.1
-0.2
1.7
0.8
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.9
-0.4
0.7
1.0
0.9
(y-o-y)
-
2.1
1.2
-
1.3
1.0
1.7
2.7
-
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 14 12
(%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2001.Q1
2002.Q1
2003.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in January increased 2.4 percent compared to the previous month as growth in durable goods (up 9.8%) and nondurable goods (up 2.5%) offset decreases in semi-durable goods (down 5.8%) . Compared to a year ago, retail sales increased 5.7 percent.
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Retail sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 20 (%) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
The Green Book
Retail sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
11
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Durable goods
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
(Percentage change from previous period)
Retail sales (y-o-y) - Durable goods² · Automobiles - Semi-durable goods³ - Nondurable goods4
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q3 4.5 2.4 1.4 2.7 10.3 5.3 3.2 7.0 2.4 -4.4 4.2 -0.4 -0.1 2.1 2.0 1.3
Q4 -0.1 2.5 2.1 12.0 1.1 -1.8
Annual 0.8 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.6
Q1 -1.0 0.3 -4.1 -7.2 1.4 -0.6
Q2 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.2 -0.4 1.3
2013¹ Q3 0.8 0.7 -0.3 2.1 0.9 1.5
Q4¹ 0.4 1.2 0.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.8
Nov¹ 0.6 1.3 -1.6 -0.8 4.1 0.4
2014¹ Dec¹ Jan¹ -1.1 2.4 0.2 5.7 -2.1 9.8 -4.4 18.8 -0.7 -5.8 -0.7 2.5
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Retail sales in February are likely to decline compared to January due to sluggish grocery sales, but sales are expected to pick up for the next two months. Year-on-year growth of domestic sales of cars increased due to a low base effect from the previous year. Sales at department stores and large discount stores declined year-on-year, led by grocery sales, due to the Lunar New Year falling in January and not February.
12
(y-o-y, %)
2013
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Credit card use
2014
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
7.2
7.6
1.0
5.1
4.2
3.6
9.1
2.5
Department store sales
-2.1
7.0
2.8
-1.7
5.9
0.3
7.2
-1.7
Large discount store sales
-4.9
-2.4
-5.2
-6.4
0.8
-6.0
18.4
-23.1
Domestic sales of gasoline
-3.4
12.3
1.3
-2.0
0.4
2.6
-2.9
2.2
5.2
23.9
-14.5
-3.0
-8.5
-11.8
4.1
9.6
Domestic sales of cars
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for February data)
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) rose 6.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 9.9 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2013.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q3 Facility investment² (y-o-y)
Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
2.6
-0.2
1.0
6.4
-11.9
-4.6
1.5
9.9
3.6
-1.9
-5.2
-1.8
-1.5
-
-
-6.9
-5.2
-
Q4
- Machinery
4.2
-1.1
-6.0
-3.2
-
1.1
0.6
3.7
-
- Transportation equipment
1.4
-5.0
-1.7
3.7
-
7.8
-2.9
-8.3
-
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
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Facility investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40
(%)
30 20 10 0 -10
13
-20 -30 2001.Q1
2002.Q1
2003.Q1
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2013.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 40
(y-o-y, %)
The Green Book
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2012.Q1
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2001.Q1
2002.Q1
2003.Q1
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Transportation equipment
2013.Q1
Machinery
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual
Q1
Q2
2013¹ Q3 Q4¹
Oct
Nov¹
Dec1
2014¹ Jan1
Facility investment index
3.5
-2.8
-1.3
-3.1
1.1
5.0
5.9
15.7
-8.5
3.2
-4.5
(y-o-y)
-
-
-
-13.1
-4.0
2.7
10.4
15.2
9.7
6.6
-1.7
4.9
-2.7
-2.6
-3.5
2.9
4.5
7.3
14.5
-6.8
1.1
-8.6
-0.4
-3.0
2.3
-2.0
-4.0
6.4
2.5
19.8
-13.1
8.9
7.6
- Machinery - Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 13
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
The facility investment index in January declined 4.5 percent month-on-month as both transportation equipment investment and machinery investment decreased. The index fell 1.7 percent year-on-year. Facility investment in February will be affected by positive factors, such as a rising corporate confidence and average manufacturing operation ratio, and negative factors, such as the end of the special consumption tax cut. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 82 (Jun 2013) > 78 (Jul) > 73 (Aug) > 77 (Sep) > 82 (Oct) > 83 (Nov) > 78 (Dec) > 79 (Jan 2014) > 81 (Feb) > 85 (Mar)
14 (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual
Q1
Q2
2013¹ Q3 Q4¹
Oct
Nov¹
Dec¹
2014¹ Jan¹
27.4
Domestic machinery orders
7.6 -13.9
6.7 -11.4
8.8
2.2
32.4
72.4
2.4
0.2
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
6.8
3.9
-6.9
27.7
67.2 -13.1 -18.7
12.4
20.6 -47.0
94.2
-
-Public
-2.6 -11.0
-9.7 129.7 815.5
28.2 -51.4 -33.7
-Private
8.8 -14.2
5.2
-6.1
4.0
3.8
22.1
27.5
27.3
11.6
3.0
Machinery imports
7.1
-3.0
6.5 -11.8
-2.1
6.8
13.2
26.1
9.2
4.9
-9.9
Average manufacturing operation ratio
80.5
78.5
76.2
77.3
75.9
75.1
76.6
76.2
76.2
77.3
78.2
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
1.1
-0.7
-1.4
-2.6
-1.6
-1.7
0.3
1.9
-2.4
1.1
-5.5
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10 9
(trillion won)
(y-o-y, %)
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2001.Q1 2002.Q1 2003.Q1 2004.Q1 2005.Q1 2006.Q1 2007.Q1 2008.Q1 2009.Q1 2010.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
EB 3월호 내지.indd 14
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50
2011.Q1 2012.Q1 2013.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
4. Construction investment
Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 fell 3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, but rose 8.1 percent year-on-year. The value of construction completed (constant) in January rose 9.7 percent month-on-month due to strong building construction and civil engineering works. The index increased 12.8 percent year-on-year.
Construction investment
15
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 20
(%)
The Green Book
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2001.Q1
2002.Q1
2003.Q1
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50 (y-o-y, %) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2001.Q1
2002.Q1
2003.Q1
Building construction
EB 3월호 내지.indd 15
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
Residential buildings
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Civil engineering works
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2011¹ 2012¹ Annual Annual Q3 Construction investment² (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
-4.7 -
-2.2 -
-2.7 -7.3
-1.7 -2.9
Q4
0.7
-1.2
-0.3 0.1 1.5
-4.2 -0.3 -2.4
Annual
2013¹ Q2
Q1
6.9 -
Q3
Q4
4.1
3.4
3.2
-3.8
2.4 4.6 3.5
7.2 3.7 3.1
8.6 3.9 2.3
8.1 -
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual
16
Q1
Q2
2013¹ Q3 Q41
Oct
Nov1
Dec1
2014¹ Jan1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Construction completed (constant)
-6.4
-5.0
10.1
3.5
6.3
-0.1
-0.7
1.0
1.1
-4.9
9.7
(y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
-6.9 -5.6
-6.6 -3.0
14.8 4.3
4.4 5.6 1.0
15.0 7.7 4.6
10.5 0.4 -0.9
9.7 2.9 -5.4
16.8 1.3 0.5
11.3 5.5 -4.9
3.3 -5.2 -4.5
12.8 10.0 9.2
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment in February will be affected by positive factors, such as a decline in unsold new homes, a rise in new apartment sales and increased SOC expenditures, and negative factors, such as a high base effect. Unsold houses (thousand, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 70 (Apr 2013) > 67 (May) > 65 (Jun) > 68 (Jul) > 68 (Aug) > 66 (Sep) > 64 (Oct) > 64 (Nov) > 61 (Dec) > 59 (Jan 2014) New apartment sales (thousand, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 16 (Apr 2013) > 29 (May) > 40 (Jun) > 14 (Jul) > 28 (Aug) > 24 (Sep) > 50 (Oct) > 44 (Nov) > 12 (Dec) > 6 (Jan 2014) > 10 (Feb)
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 290
(y-o-y, %)
240 190 140 90 40 -10 -60 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
Construction orders
EB 3월호 내지.indd 16
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Building permit area
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
2013¹ Q3 Q41
Q1
Q2
-40.8
-29.5
-10.6
22.2
0.3 -29.6 -29.4
16.8 -10.8 -10.0
2.8 17.9 32.9
-14.6
-3.4
-0.2
6.1 -
-6.2 -
-15.4 -
14.0 -6.0
-4.7 -9.1
-13.4 -19.2
-2.2 -34.0 -50.4
9.9
-0.5
-7.3
-12.4
Nov1
Dec1
2014¹ Jan1
26.7
9.1
29.5
43.3
0.5 13.2 67.7
-6.7 5.5 18.9
0.5 31.5 25.6
3.7 68.6 26.7
5.9
25.6
-18.5
-16.4
Oct
1. Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
17
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)
Exports in February increased 1.6 percent(preliminary) year-on-year to US$42.99 billion.
34.5(mobilephones),14.5(semiconductors),9.1(automobiles), 0.4 (steel), -7.0 (vessels), -15.4 (petroleum products)
Exports are continuning to increase in line with the global economy recovery, but export growth in Febuary was hampered by sluggish exports of petroleum products (due to lower export unit prices) and vessels (due to delivery delays).
The Green Book
5. Exports and Imports
Export growth by region (y-o-y, %)
10.6 (EU), 15.1 (ASEAN countries), 3.8 (China), -6.7 (US), -9.5 (Japan) Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was down 3.2 percent year-on-year, posting US$2 billion in February.
Shipments of semiconductors and mobile phones continued to grow along with increasing exports to the EU and the ASEAN countries. However, shipments of vessels and petroleum products declined, as well as exports to the US and Japan.
Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 8.2 (Sep 2013) > 7.2 (Oct) > 2.3 (Nov) > -0.1 (Dec) > 8.9 (Jan 2014) > -3.2 (Feb)
(US$ billion)
Exports
2012 Annual
Annual
Q1
547.87
559.65
135.42
Q2
2013 Q3
Q4
Feb
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb1
141.17
136.78
146.37
42.33
47.98
45.58
42.99
(y-o-y, %)
-1.3
2.1
0.4
0.7
2.8
4.7
-8.6
6.9
-0.2
1.6
Average daily exports
2.00
2.05
2.02
2.07
2.01
2.11
2.06
2.09
2.07
2.00
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
EB 3월호 내지.indd 17
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Exports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 160 140
(y-o-y, %)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
18
-20 -40 -60 -80
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
Export growth rate
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Semiconductors
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Automobiles
2014.1
Steel
Imports in February rose 4.0 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$42.06 billion. A surge in imports of capital goods and consumer goods drove overall imports higher. Commodities imports increased for the third consecutive month despite a fall in crude oil imports (down 10.1%). Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) 0.3 (commodities), 9.8 (consumer goods), 13.5 (capital goods)
Imports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 80
(y-o-y, %)
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
Import growth rate
EB 3월호 내지.indd 18
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Commodities
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital goods
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
(US$ billion)
2012 Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
2013 Q3
Q4
Feb
Dec
Jan
Feb1
519.58
515.59
129.75
126.85
125.93
133.06
40.46
44.35
44.82
42.06
(y-o-y, %)
-0.9
-0.8
-2.9
-2.7
0.1
2.5
-10.3
3.0
-1.0
4.0
Average daily imports
1.90
1.89
1.94
1.85
1.85
1.92
1.97
1.93
2.04
1.96
Imports
2014
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
19 The Green Book
Exports and imports Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 60
(US$ billion)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Trade balance
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Exports
2014.1
Imports
The trade balance (preliminary) in February remained in the black for the 25th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US$930 million. (US$ billion)
Trade balance
2012 Annual
Annual
Q1
28.29
44.05
5.67
Q2
2013 Q3
Q4
Feb
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb1
14.32
10.86
13.30
1.87
3.63
0.76
0.93
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
EB 3월호 내지.indd 19
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in January, as mining and public utilities grew while manufacturing remained unchanged. The index fell 3.8 percent year-on-year.
20 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (up 6.7%), audio-visual communications equipment (up 9.5%) and processed metals (up 2.5%) rose, while semiconductors & parts (down
4.7%) , electrical equipment (down 5.1%) and mechanical equipment (down 2.8%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of primary metals (up 0.8%) and chemical products (up 0.5%) increased, while other transportation equipment (down 28.9%) , audio-visual communications equipment (down 18.8%) and automobiles (down 3.3%) declined.
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 40
(%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 1.8 percentage points month-on-month as inventories rose 0.5 percent while shipments declined 0.9 percent. Inventories of primary metals (up 5.0%) , chemical products (up 3.6%) and refined petroleum (up 9.6%) rose month-on-month, while audio-visual communications equipment (down 13.6%) ,
EB 3월호 내지.indd 20
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
semiconductors & parts (down 3.9%) and automobiles (down 4.9%) declined. Shipments of audio-visual communications equipment (up 10.0%) , automobiles (up 5.3%) and nonmetallic minerals (up 9.3%) climbed, while semiconductors & parts (down 4.7%) , primary metals (down 4.2% ) and mechanical equipment (down 5.9%) declined.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Shipment and inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 10
(m-o-m, %)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
21
-6 -8 -10 2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Shipment growth
2014.1
Inventory growth
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to 78.2 percent.
The Green Book
2001.1
As the economy continued to gradually recover, mining and manufacturing production in February is expected to be affected by temporary factors, such as consumption tax cuts on automobiles and waning demand after the Winter Olympics. (Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual¹ Q1 Mining production (q-o-q, m-o-m) (y-o-y) Manufacturing production (q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic demand
Q2
2013¹ Q3 Q4¹
Jan
Nov
2014¹ Dec¹ Jan¹
-
-
-0.5
-0.9
0.1
2.0
-0.2
0.1
2.4
0.1
1.3
0.4
-0.8
0.0
0.2
1.9
8.7
-0.7
2.9
-3.8
-
-
-0.4
-1.0
0.0
2.2
0.1
0.1
2.6
0.0
1.4
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.1
2.0
9.2
-0.7
3.0
-4.2
1.4
0.4
-0.3
-0.6
-0.1
1.7
-0.5
0.4
1.4
-0.9
-0.7
-1.4
-1.7
-1.1
1.6
1.7
-1.4
-1.1
2.1
-0.7
- Exports
4.2
2.3
1.6
-0.2
-2.0
1.6
0.7
2.1
0.6
-1.1
Inventory³
4.3
6.1
2.3
-1.7
3.3
3.4
0.2
1.1
1.7
0.5
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity 4 Production capacity
78.5
76.2
77.3
75.9
75.1
76.6
78.8
76.2
77.3
78.2
2.1
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.3
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
4. Percentage change from same period in previous year
Source: Statistics Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 21
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 100 (%)
90
80
70
22
60 50 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
7. Service sector activity
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Wholesale & retail rose 1.6 percent from the previous month, as sales at department stores and large discount stores increased due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Hotels & restaurants grew 4.8 percent month-on-month.
Service output in January increased 0.9 percent month-on-month, as growth in wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants offset declines in real estate & renting. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 2.0 percent.
Transportation services (up 1.0%, m-o-m) and financial & insurance services (up 1.5%, m-o-m) continued to grow in January, while the decline in real estate & renting (down 7.0%, m-o-m) accelerated.
Service sector activity Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15
(%)
10 5 0 -5 -10 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
EB 3월호 내지.indd 22
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
In February, real estate & renting may improve, but wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants may decline due to the absence of the Lunar New Year effects seen in January.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 Weight Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
Q2
Service activity index
100.0
3.2
1.6
0.1
0.4
- Wholesale & retail
21.6
3.8
0.8
0.3 -0.2 -0.8
1.4
0.2
2013¹ Q3 Q4¹
2014¹ Nov Dec1 Jan1
0.2
0.9 -0.2 -0.3
0.9
0.1 -0.1
0.6 -0.4 -1.5
1.6
0.7
2.7
1.0
2.7 -1.0 -1.2 -3.4
4.8
- Transportation services
8.5
4.5
1.2 -0.1
1.1
0.7
0.1 -1.0
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2
-1.3
-1.2 -2.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.6 -1.0
0.4
5.1
3.0 -0.3
1.9
0.9
3.3
0.8 -1.0 -0.4
6.8
2.8
1.0
0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.5
0.4
0.1
- Real estate & renting
5.3
-8.8
-4.8
0.7
2.4 -2.2
7.4 -3.6
3.5 -0.5 -0.2 -7.0
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
0.5
3.7 -0.2
3.3
0.2
4.9 -2.9
0.6 -2.1 -2.5
2.2
- Business services
3.3
5.2
3.5
0.2
2.2
1.6 -0.4
1.6
0.4
0.9
0.2
1.2
- Education services
10.9
2.2
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.8 -1.0
1.2
0.8
0.8 -0.5
0.4
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
6.7
6.7
0.7
5.0
0.8
1.1
2.5
1.6
0.0
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.7
2.8 -3.0 -0.5
1.7
0.6
- Membership organizations
3.6
1.6
-1.4
- Sewerage & waste management
0.6
3.3
-0.6 -4.3 -0.4
- Financial & insurance services
0.0
5.3
0.2
1.5
0.3 -0.1
0.2 -0.3 -0.1
2.9
3.7
3.1 -0.7
3.5
0.2 -1.6
3.4
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.2 -2.5
5.1 -2.8
0.6
The Green Book
8.4 14.7
- Publishing & communications services
23
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
January 2014 service output by business Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 12
(y-o-y, %)
10
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
8 6 4
Total index
Wholesale & retail
Hotels & reataurants Financial & insurance services
2
Professional, scientific & technical services
Education services
Sewerage & waste management
0 -2 -4 -6
Transportation services
Publishing & communications services
Real estate & renting
Business facility management & business support services
Health & social welfare services
Membership organizations, repair & other personal services
-8
EB 3월호 내지.indd 23
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in January increased by 705,000 from a year earlier to 24,760,000 and the employment rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 58.5 percent.
Number of persons employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
24
1200
(thousand)
(million)
1000
26 26 25
800
25
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
600
24 24
400
23
200
23
0
22
-200
22
-400
21
2000.1
2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2001.1
2002.1
Original data
EB 3월호 내지.indd 24
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
By industry, employment expanded in all sectors, including agriculture, forestry & fisheries, services, construction and manufacturing. By status of workers, the increase in regular workers accelerated, while employment growth among nonwage workers such as self-employed workers turned positive.
Employment by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100
25
80 71.0 70.8 70.3 69.7 69.2 69.1 69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1
40 7.2 20
0
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.1
7.2
7.2
6.9
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.9
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.8
16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 4.4
4.7
2012.1 2
5.6
6.5
7.0
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.5
4.9
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 2013.1 2
Services
4.3
Construction
4.6
5.6
6.3
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.2
4.7
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 2014.1
Manufacturing
The Green Book
60
4.4
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100
80
4.5
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.5
4.2
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.1
4.3
4.2
23.1 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 6.5
60
4.5
6.5
6.3
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.2
6.0
6.0
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
19.2 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5
40
20
0 2012.1 2
3
4
Unpaid family workers
EB 3월호 내지.indd 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Self-employed workers
12 2013.1 2
3
Daily workers
4
5
6
7
8
Temporary workers
9
10
11
12 2014.1
Regular workers
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
26
Current Economic Trends
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Number of employed (million) 23.83 24.24 24.68 24.99 24.80 25.07 24.18 25.33 25.41 Employment rate (%) 58.7 59.1 59.4 60.0 59.4 59.5 57.7 60.2 60.3 (Seasonally adjusted) 58.7 59.1 59.4 59.4 59.2 59.5 59.2 59.4 59.7 Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand) 323 415 437 506 342 386 257 324 421 (Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries) 405 440 451 504 344 394 266 351 402 - Manufacturing 191 63 14 85 140 79 119 122 26 - Construction 33 -2 22 17 -40 -19 -64 -6 4 - Services 200 386 416 397 236 318 199 212 354 - Agriculture, forestry & fisheries -82 -25 -14 2 -2 -8 -9 -27 19 - Wage workers 517 427 315 317 303 483 329 472 526 · Regular workers 697 575 436 485 469 615 554 638 632 · Temporary workers -34 -78 -2 -79 -109 -96 -152 -169 -65 · Daily workers -146 -70 -120 -89 -57 -37 -73 3 -42 - Non-wage workers -194 -11 121 189 39 -97 -71 -148 -105 · Self-employed workers -118 1 124 143 33 -67 -28 -104 -83 - Male 181 238 234 284 172 186 123 179 179 - Female 142 177 203 223 170 200 135 145 242 - 15 to 29 -43 -35 -36 -57 -80 -50 -117 -88 -41 - 30 to 39 -4 -47 -31 33 -10 -21 -15 8 -34 - 40 to 49 29 57 11 12 -3 22 12 -6 30 - 50 to 59 294 291 270 273 220 254 196 254 279 - 60 or more 47 149 222 245 215 181 181 156 187
Q4 25.35 60.0 59.9 541 556 49 -9 507 -15 604 637 2 -35 -63 -54 262 279 46 -42 53 285 200
Jan 24.05 57.4 59.2 322 337 156 -48 220 -15 397 523 -77 -49 -75 -21 173 149 -82 -26 48 200 182
Dec 24.96 59.1 59.9 560 587 82 5 495 -27 651 656 -4 -1 -91 -58 309 251 53 -13 58 289 173
2014 Jan 24.76 58.5 60.4 705 658 90 18 546 47 675 660 -35 50 30 8 381 324 74 11 90 320 210
Source: Statistics Korea
The number of unemployed persons in January increased by 44,000 year-on-year to 891,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to 3.5 percent. The unemployment rate in the 30s and the 50s declined, but rose in the youth and over-60 age group.
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 6
(%)
5
4
3
2 2001.1
2002.1
Original data
EB 3월호 내지.indd 26
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Number of unemployed (thousand)
Q2
2013 Q3
Q4
2014 Jan Dec Jan
855
820 770 722
807 907 812 777 733 847 774 891
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand)
31
-65
-35 -16 -18
-13
-40
-29
7
11
-6
37
44
- Male
-7
-48
-26 -16 -13
-6
-7
-20
11
-7
8
-15
3
- Female
38
-17
-6
-7
-33
-9
-4
18
-13
52
41
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7
3.4
3.2 3.0 2.8
3.1
3.6
3.1
3.0
2.8
3.4
3.0
3.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.7
3.4
3.2 3.1 3.0
3.1
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
- 15 to 29
8.0
7.6
7.5 6.8 7.0
8.0
8.4
7.9
7.9
7.9
7.5
8.5
8.7
- 30 to 39
3.5
3.4
3.0 2.8 2.7
3.0
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.6
3.3
2.7
2.6
- 40 to 49
2.5
2.1
2.0 2.0 1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.7
2.0
1.8
2.0
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.1
2.1 2.2 1.8
1.9
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.5
2.2
1.5
2.0
- 60 or more
2.8
2.6
2.4 1.9 1.6
1.8
3.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
3.3
1.7
4.0
-9
0
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in January was down 322,000 from a year earlier to 16,650,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 1.1 percentage point to 60.6 percent.
27 The Green Book
920
The number of those economically inactive due to old age (up 73,000, y-o-y) increased, while those due to housework (down 206,000, y-o-y) , rest (down 154,000, y-o-y) , education (down 72,000, y-o-y) and childcare (down 18,000, y-o-y) decreased.
Labor force participation rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 65 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2001.1
2002.1
Original data
EB 3월호 내지.indd 27
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
2013 Q3
Q2
Q4
2014 Jan Dec Jan
Economically inactive population (million) 15.84 15.95 16.08 15.90 16.26 16.22 16.83 15.91 15.98 16.17 16.98 16.54 16.65
28 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Labor force participation rate (%)
61.0
61.1
61.3 61.8 61.1
61.5 59.9 62.2 62.1 61.7 59.5 60.9 60.6
(seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
61.0
61.1
61.3 61.4 61.1
61.5 61.2 61.3 61.6 61.7 61.1 61.8 62.3
143
112
128
57
244
141 336 242
- Childcare
-125
-5
-2
-7
-3
- Housework
201
101
123
101
126
- Education
12
-51
-12
5
39
- Old age
80
-45
148
156
-56
182
- Rest
1
0
10
-3 143
36
78 9
-91 239 -172 -322 -14
-9
-40
-18
-80 -112 134 -126 -206
77 118 147
88
-44 103
-51
-72
186
54 154
7
32
21 175
43
73
-53 -142 -125
-7 -106
44
12
21 -184
-32 -154
Source: Statistics Korea
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock price index in February rose 2.0 percent to 1,980 points from 1,941 points in the previous month. The KOSPI, which had been falling due to emerging market jitters and sluggish economic data in the US and China, rebounded after hopes for a eurozone recovery arose and Fed chair Janet Yellen signaled that interest rates would remain low.
Stock prices 2,200 2,000
(monthly average)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2001.1
2002.1
KOSPI
EB 3월호 내지.indd 28
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
KOSDAQ
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
(End-period)
Jan 2014
KOSPI Feb 2014
Change1
Jan 2014
KOSDAQ Feb 2014
Change1
Stock price index (points)
1,941.2
1,980.0
38.8 (2.0%)
515.2
529.0
13.8 (2.7%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,145.5
1,173.5
28.0 (2.4%)
123.4
128.4
5.0 (4.1%)
3.9
3.7
-0.2 (-5.1%)
1.7
1.7
-
34.9
35.1
0.2 (0.6%)
10.5
10.5
-
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%) 1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
29
9.2 Exchange rate
The 100 yen-won exchange rate rose up to 1,073.9 won, as the yen made gains due to financial instabilities in emerging markets, but later declined to 1,049.5 won as those instabilities eased.
The Green Book
TThe dollar-won exchange rate in February fell 2.9 won to 1,067.5 won from 1,070.4 won at the end of January. Despite foreign investors’ net selling of stocks and the Fed’s decision to cut back its bond-buying program, the dollar-won exchange rate inched down as risk aversion in global financial markets subsided after financial unrest in emerging countries showed signs of easing.
Foreign exchange rates 1,600
(month-end, \)
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Dollar-Won
2014.1
100 Yen-Won
(End-period)
2008 Dec
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Feb Change¹
Dollar-Won
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,067.5
-1.1
100 Yen-Won
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
1,049.5
-4.5
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
EB 3월호 내지.indd 29
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields fell 3 basis points to 2.85 percent in February from 2.88 percent in January. Treasury bond yields declined due to poor economic data in the US and China, as well as risk aversion arising from the Ukraine crisis.
30
(End-period, %)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
Mar
2013 Jun Sep
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb Change1
Call rate (1 day)
2.01
2.51
3.29
2.77
2.75
2.50
2.50
2.52
2.51
2.49
-2
CD (91 days)
2.88
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.81
2.69
2.66
2.66
2.65
2.65
-
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.44
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.52
2.88
2.82
2.86
2.88
2.85
-3
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.56
4.27
4.21
3.29
2.88
3.31
3.24
3.29
3.30
3.28
-2
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.98
4.08
3.46
2.97
2.58
3.14
3.05
3.23
3.22
3.13
-9
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea 10 9
(monthly average, yearly, %)
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
EB 3월호 내지.indd 30
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
3-yr corporate bond yield
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in December 2013 expanded 5.3 percent from a year earlier. Despite the outflow of foreigners’ stock investment funds, M2 continued to expand, led by increasing corporate loans.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Q1
Q2
2013 Q3 Oct
Nov
Dec
31
Dec1
16.3
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
7.1
9.1
10.6
10.7
12.1
11.3
509.6
M2
10.3
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
5.1
4.9
4.4
4.7
5.1
5.3
1,932.0
Lf ³
7.9
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
7.5
6.8
6.5
6.7
6.8
6.7
2,619.8
1. Balance at end December 2013, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
The Green Book
M1²
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2001.1
2002.1
Reserve money
EB 3월호 내지.indd 31
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
M1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Lf
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Bank deposits inched up in January. Instant access deposits declined (8 trillion won > -2.7 trillion won) due to value-added tax (VAT) payments, but time deposits surged (-7.9 trillion won > 3.7 trillion won) as banks moved to attract more deposits to raise their loan-deposit ratios.
Asset management company (AMC) deposits increased, led by money market funds (MMF) (-7.0 trillion won > 6.0 trillion won), due to inflows of corporate funds.
(Monthly change, end-period, trillion won)
32
2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Jan
Annual
Jan
2013 Nov
Dec
Jan
2014 Jan1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Bank deposits
54.8
36.9
58.9
37.0
-10.0
41.0
-2.4
7.8
-2.2
1.3
1,178.0
AMC deposits
-27.6
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
5.7
17.7
15.4
-1.4
-3.8
8.5
343.4
2008.1
2009.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
1. Balance at end January 2014, trillion won
Deposits in financial institutions Source: The Bank of Korea 30
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
20
10
0
-10 -20 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
10. Balance of payments
2006.1
2007.1
2010.1
Korea’s current account (preliminary) in January posted a surplus of US$3.61 billion, staying in the black for 24 consecutive months. The goods account surplus contracted from US$5.69 billion in December 2013 to US$3.32 billion in January, as goods exports decreased compared to the previous month due to the Lunar New Year holiday.
EB 3월호 내지.indd 32
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The services account swung from a surplus of US$0.44 billion to a deficit of US$0.59 billion, led by declines in the transportation and construction account surplus, as well as an expanding travel account deficit.
Goods exports (US$ billion) 49.30 (Dec 2013) > 47.20 (Jan 2014) Goods imports (US$ billion) 43.60 (Dec 2013) > 43.90 (Jan 2014)
Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus expanded by US$0.70 billion despite a fall in exports (down 0.2%) , as imports declined by a larger margin (down 1.0%).
Services account (US$ billion, December 2013 > January 2014) -0.67 > -0.85 (travel), 0.59 > 0.22 (transportation), 1.72 > 1.19 (construction), -1.15 > -0.82 (business services), -0.16 > -0.34 (intellectual property rights)
33
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) -3.1 (automobiles), -5.8 (vessels) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 24.8 (EU), 9.8 (ASEAN countries), 0.7 (China), -2.0 (US), -19.8 (Japan)
The primary income account surplus expanded from US$0.42 billion to US$0.69 billion due to a rise in interest income, while the secondary income account swung from a deficit of US$0.14 billion to a surplus of US$0.18 billion.
Current account balance
The Green Book
14.8 (semiconductors), 10.4 (mobile phones), 4.5 (steel),
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends) 10 8
(US$ billion)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Services account
Goods account
2013.1
2014.1
Current account
(US$ billion)
Current account - Goods balance - Service balance - Primary income balance - Secondary income balance
2012 Annual 48.08 39.82 5.73 5.72 -3.19
2013 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 70.73 10.02 19.80 19.01 21.97 60.71 9.39 15.84 16.66 18.91 6.00 -0.48 3.76 1.33 1.39 4.80 1.38 0.06 1.57 1.79 -0.79 -0.26 0.14 -0.54 -0.12
Oct 9.51 7.03 1.65 0.79 0.05
Jan 2.33 2.62 -0.93 0.97 -0.33
Nov 6.03 6.18 -0.70 0.59 -0.03
Dec 6.41 5.69 0.44 0.42 -0.14
2014 Jan1 3.61 3.32 -0.59 0.69 0.18
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 33
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in January posted a net outflow of US$2.18 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -7.62 (Aug 2013) > -4.61 (Sep) > -10.13 (Oct) > -6.46 (Nov) > -6.60 (Dec) > -2.18 (Jan 2014)
34
Direct investments switched to a net inflow of $1.13 billion from a net outflow of US$1.51 billion due to an increase in foreign direct investment. Net outflows of portfolio investments contracted from US$5.16 billion to US$4.27 billion as foreign
investors’ securities investment switched to a net inflow. Net inflows of financial derivatives investments contracted from US$0.60 billion to US$0.16 billion, while net outflows of other investments expanded from US$0.17 billion to US$3.70 billion due to increased borrowing by financial firms. The current account in February is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by the surplus in the goods account, which resulted from a trade surplus (US$0.93 billion) .
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends) (US$ billion) 10 5 0 -5 -10
2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
Direct investment
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Portfolio investment
11. Prices and international commodity prices
EB 3월호 내지.indd 34
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Financial derivatives
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital & financial account
11.1 Prices Consumer prices in February rose 0.3 percent from the previous month and 1.0 percent compared to a year ago. The month-on-month growth rate declined from 0.5 percent in the previous month, while yearon-year growth stayed stable at a low-1.0 percent.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Consumer price inflation
(%)
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2013 Jul
Aug
Sep
Month-on-Month
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
Year-on-Year
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.0
Oct
2014 Jan Feb
Nov
Dec
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
35
7 6
(%)
The Green Book
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
Consumer prices rose month-on-month, led by agricultural, livestock & fishery products (up 1.1%), processed food (up 0.9%) and personal services (up 0.2%). Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices rose 1.1 percent month-on-month, led by greenhouse crops, which were relied on more heavily in winter. Agricultural and fishery product prices increased 2.0 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, while livestock product prices were down 0.4 percent.
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Manufactured product prices were up 0.3 percent from the previous month. The prices of oil products inched down 0.3 percent, while the prices of processed food rose 0.9 percent. The prices of personal services increased 0.2 percent, as rising apartment complex maintenance fees offset declines in expenses related to travel services. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %)
Price increases by item (m-o-m, %)
apartment complex maintenance fees (2.6), pizza (3.5),
green chili (34.2), bell peppers (31.9), fresh flowers (23.9),
beauty care service (0.8), group tour expenses (-7.6),
cucumbers (10.1)
international air fares (-4.2)
EB 3월호 내지.indd 35
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 5
(%p)
4 3 2 1
36
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2012
2013
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured products
Housing rents
Public services
Personal services
Public utilities
Consumer prices for basic necessities rose 0.4 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent month-on-month, remaining stable at the under-1.0 percent range. Price increases for basic necessities (y-o-y, %)
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products and show long-term price trends, stayed stable in the 1.0 percent range yearon-year, rising 1.7 percent. The index rose 0.2 percent from the previous month.
1.1 (Jul 2013) > 1.1 (Aug) > 0.2 (Sep) > 0.0 (Oct) > 0.5 (Nov) > 0.5 (Dec) > 0.6 (Jan 2014) > 0.4 (Feb)
Fresh food prices declined 12.4 percent year-onyear, led by fresh vegetables (down 25.7%) . Compared to the previous month, fresh food prices rose 2.2 percent.
The average expected annual inflation inched down 0.1 percent month-on-month to 2.8 percent, and import prices fell 3.0 percent year-on-year. Expected inflation (%, over the next 12 months) 2.8 (Jun 2013) > 2.9 (Jul) > 3.0 (Aug) > 2.9 (Sep) > 2.9 (Oct) > 2.9 (Nov) > 2.9 (Dec) > 2.9 (Jan 2014) > 2.8 (Feb)
Fresh food price increases (y-o-y, %)
3.9 (Aug 2013) > -7.9 (Sep) > -11.7 (Oct) > -9.1 (Nov) > -11.1 (Dec) > -12.9 (Jan 2014) > -12.4 (Feb)
Core inflation and prices for basic necessities
Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -4.3 (Jun 2013) > -4.3 (Jul) > -5.3 (Aug) > -8.1 (Sep) > -7.3 (Oct) > -4.9 (Nov) > -3.5 (Dec) > -3.0 (Jan 2014)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 Consumer prices excluding food and energy 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 Consumer prices for basic necessities 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6
EB 3월호 내지.indd 36
1.7 1.0 0.4
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
11.2 International oil and commodity prices Dubai crude prices increased in February, reflecting upward adjustments for world oil demand by major institutions including the International Energy Agency (IEA), as well as political unrest in OPEC member nations such as Venezuela and Libya. WTI crude prices rose by a wider margin than other oil benchmarks, as demand for heating oil spiked due to the cold spell and heavy snow in the US. WTI prices were also affected by declining crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma.
37
WTI-Dubai crude spreads ($/barrel)
(US$/barrel, period average)
2011 Annual
2012 Annual Annual
Dubai crude
105.9
109.0
Brent crude
111.0 95.1
WTI crude
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb
105.3
103.5
107.1
107.9
105.6
105.5
107.5
104.0
105.0
111.7
108.7
107.7
110.8
111.6
109.3
108.0
110.7
107.7
108.9
93.8
98.0
104.7
106.7
106.2
100.5
94.0
97.9
94.9
100.7
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The Green Book
-11.5 (Nov 2013) > -9.6 (Dec) > -9.1 (Jan 2014) > -4.3 (Feb)
Source: Korea PDS
International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001.1
2002.1
Dubai crude
EB 3월호 내지.indd 37
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
WTI
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Domestic oil product prices stabilized in February, reflecting the previous month’s declines in international oil prices. (Won/liter, period average)
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
Annual
Gasoline prices
1,929.3
1,985.8
1,925.5 1,933.1 1,947.7 1,934.6 1,907.3 1,880.0 1,881.1 1,886.4 1,880.7
Diesel prices
1,745.7
1,806.3
1,729.6 1,729.7 1,743.6 1,734.3 1,711.8 1,692.9 1,699.1 1,705.1 1,698.5
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
2014 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
38 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
(thousand won/B)
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
International grain prices rose in February due to unfavorable weather in South American grainproducing areas such as Argentina and Brazil, and also due to concerns that the cold spell in the US would hamper winter wheat production.
Nonferrous metal prices mostly fell in February as China’s PMI fell to its lowest level in seven months, but tin and nickel prices inched up due to Indonesia’s ban on mineral ore exports, which took effect on January 12.
International grain prices in February (m-o-m, %)
Nonferrous metal prices in February (m-o-m, %)
corn (4.7), soybean (4.6), wheat (3.8)
tin (3.3), lead (-1.8), nickel (0.8), copper (-2.0), zinc (-0.1), aluminum (-1.9)
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Reuters index*
(Period average)
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual 2,553
3,062
3,006
2,774
May
Jun
Jul
2013 Aug
2,828
2,756
2,701
2,662
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014 Jan Feb
2,630
2,655
2,623
2,642
2,574
2,586
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
International commodity prices Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
39
4000
470
390
3000
350 310
2000
270 230
1000
The Green Book
430
190 150
0
1998.1 1999.1 2000.1 2001.1 2002.1 2003.1 2004.1 2005.1 2006.1 2007.1 2008.1 2009.1 2010.1 2011.1 2012.1 2013.1 2014.1
CRB (left)
Reuters index (right)
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Nationwide apartment sales prices rose 0.2 percent month-on-month in February. Apartment sales prices continued to rise in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.2%) , including Seoul (up 0.2%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.3%).
Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.2%) grew at a slower pace compared to the previous month. Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities rose 0.2 percent while prices in the eight provinces were up 0.1 percent. Apartment sales price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.1), Daegu (0.7), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.2), Gwangju (0.2)
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Nationwide
40
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2014 Jan
Feb
1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
-0.3
-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
-0.4
-0.4
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
Gangnam²
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
-0.5
-0.4
0.2
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
Gangbuk³
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
-0.3
-0.5
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.2
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 3. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Apartment sales prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 4.0
(m-o-m, %)
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 2009.1
Nationwide
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Nationwide apartment rental prices in February grew at a slower pace than the previous month, rising 0.5 percent month-on-month. Rental price growth continued at around the same pace in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.8%) , but decelerated in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.2%). Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.6), Seocho (0.4), Songpa (0.3), Gangseo (1.0), Yangcheon (1.1), Guro (1.5)
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Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
2013 Jan
Dec Annual
Feb
Nationwide
7.1
12.3
3.5
4.7
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.5
0.4
1.1
0.6
0.5
Seoul metropolitan area
6.3
11.0
2.1
6.2
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.6
1.6
0.8
0.8
Seoul
6.4
10.8
2.1
6.6
0.5
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.7
0.5
1.5
0.8
0.6
Gangnam²
7.6
11.1
2.4
6.7
0.6
0.9
1.0
1.2
0.6
0.5
1.6
0.9
0.7
Gangbuk³
5.1
10.6
1.8
6.4
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.5
1.3
0.7
0.6
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.2
41
1. Weekly trends 2. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 3. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
The Green Book
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board (m-o-m, %) 4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
Nationwide
2001.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Apartment sales transactions in January decreased 36.9 percent from the previous month’s 93,188 to 58,846, but were up 117.4 percent from a year earlier (27,070).
Apartment sales transactions
(Monthly average, thousand)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nationwide
73
67
82
61
27
47
67
80
90 130
40
47
57
90
2014 Nov Dec Jan 85
93
59
Source: Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Monthly apartment transaction volume Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport 140
(thousand)
120 100 80 60 40 20
42
0
2009.1
7
2010.1
7
Nationwide
2011.1
7
2012.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in January rose 0.11 percent month-on-month. Land prices continued to rise in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.11%) , including Seoul (up 0.19%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.04%).
Land price growth decelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.10%) , led by Daegu (up 0.17%) , Sejong (up 0.42%) and Jeju (up 0.23%) . Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)
Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)
0.13 (Jun 2013) > 0.05 (Jul) > 0.04 (Aug) > 0.06 (Sep)
0.09 (Jun 2013) > 0.00 (Jul) > -0.02 (Aug) > 0.09 (Sep) > 0.15 (Oct) > 0.16 (Nov) > 0.15 (Dec) > 0.11 (Jan 2014)
> 0.15 (Oct) > 0.15 (Nov) > 0.16 (Dec) > 0.10 (Jan 2014)
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010 2011 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3
2012 Q4 Annual Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
Q2
2013 Q3
Q4
Nov Dec
2014 Jan
Nationwide
-0.31
0.96
1.05
1.17 0.29 0.29
0.87 0.12 0.21 1.14
0.21 0.37 0.10 0.46 0.16 0.15 0.11
Seoul
-1.00
1.40
0.53
0.97 0.17 0.12
0.33 -0.14 0.09 1.21
0.10 0.41 0.08 0.61 0.21 0.19 0.19
Gyeonggi
-0.26
1.22
1.49
1.47 0.43 0.39
0.97 0.17 1.32 0.91
0.17 0.33 0.07 0.34 0.12 0.12 0.04
Incheon
1.37
1.99
1.43
0.66 0.15 0.15
0.36 -0.03 0.13 0.87
0.21 0.37 0.07 0.23 0.10 0.03 0.05
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
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Land prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9
43
-12 -15 -18
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Metropolitan city
City
County
There were 183,000 land lot transactions in January, down 22.6 percent from the previous month but up 29.6 percent from 141,000 a year earlier.
The Green Book
National average
Land transactions decreased in Seoul (down 21.0%, m-o-m), Gyeonggi Province (down 26.2%, m-o-m), Busan (down 30.7%, m-o-m), Daejeon (down 29.8%, m-o-m) and South Chungcheong Province (down 33.9%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 39.8 percent of the total transactions, fell 17.4 percent monthon-month to 73,000 and 3.3 percent year-on-year from 75,000.
Land transaction volume Source: Korea Appraisal Board 500,000
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000 0 2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
Seoul metropolitan area
EB 3월호 내지.indd 43
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Land sales transactions
(Land lot, thousand)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Nationwide 208 203 187 208 170 187 142 181 206 216 246 169 153 144 208 201 236 183 Seoul 26 22 16 18 13 17 10 15 18 20 26 13 13 14 20 19 22 17 Gyeonggi 45 46 41 43 33 37 28 33 39 43 49 33 29 30 44 41 50 37 Incheon 13 10 8 10 8 8 5 8 9 9 11 6 6 7 10 9 9 7 1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
44 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in January rose 1.4 percent monthon-month and 1.2 percent year-on-year. Output rose in most sectors, including mining & manufacturing
(up 0.1%, m-o-m), services(up 0.9%, m-o-m), construction (up 9.7%, m-o-m) and public administration (up 4.2%, m-o-m).
Industrial output Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15
(%)
10 5 0 -5 -10 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Industrial output (m-o-m)
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.3 points from the previous month. All components of the coincident composite index rose, including the value of construction completed, service activity and imports.
EB 3월호 내지.indd 44
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Industrial output (y-o-y)
Components of the coincident composite index in January (m-o-m) retail sales (0.6%), mining & manufacturing production (0.9%), domestic shipments (0.2%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.4%), service activity (0.3%), value of construction completed (1.8%), imports (1.0%)
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
100
90 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
45
Components of the leading composite index in January (m-o-m) indicator of inventory cycle (0.8%p), consumer expectations index (1.0p), international commodity prices (0.8%), ratio of export to import prices (-0.2%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-0.3%p), value of construction orders received (-1.1%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.0%p), domestic shipments of machinery (-0.7%), KOSPI (-1.4%)
The Green Book
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index was unchanged in January. Three components of the leading composite index, such as the indicator of inventory cycle, consumer expectations index and international commodity prices, rose compared to the previous month, but five other components, including the KOSPI and domestic shipments of machinery, declined.
2008.1
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
100
90 2001.1
2002.1
2003.1
2004.1
2005.1
Industrial output (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %) Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
2006.1
2007.1
Jun 0.0 0.7 0.6 100.1 0.3 1.0 100.3 0.6
2008.1
Jul 0.0 1.6 0.4 100.1 0.0 0.6 100.5 0.2
2009.1
Aug 0.8 3.0 0.5 100.3 0.2 0.5 100.7 0.2
2010.1
2013 Sep -0.8 -1.0 0.2 100.1 -0.2 0.2 100.4 -0.3
2011.1
Oct 1.4 4.2 0.5 100.2 0.1 0.6 100.8 0.4
2012.1
Nov -0.3 1.4 0.3 100.2 0.0 0.8 101.1 0.3
2013.1
Dec1 0.4 2.1 0.5 100.4 0.2 0.7 101.5 0.4
2014.1
2014 Jan1 1.4 1.2 0.8 100.7 0.3 0.4 101.5 0.0
1. Preliminary
EB 3월호 내지.indd 45
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
PO LIC Y ISS UE S
46 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation
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14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Policy Issues
Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation Background The global economy is undergoing a “Great Transition”, while the trade environment is rapidly changing. Meanwhile, the Korean economy is losing growth momentum, which is attributed to inefficiency in the public sector and unfair practices in the private sector. Also, imbalances between sectors are leading to structural vulnerability. Against
this backdrop, the Korean government has drawn up the Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation, which is based on three strategies: fair and efficient economy, growth through innovation, and balance between exports and domestic consumption. The plan focuses on streamlining or restructuring nine different areas.
47
Goal
Achieve the era of “People’s Happiness” and prepare for unification
Three strategies
Fair and efficient economy
Nine focuses
Reform the public sector on the basis of efficiency 2 Reform the private sector on the basis of fair practices 3 Strengthen social safety nets 1
Growth through innovation
4 5 6
Promote a creative economy Invest in the future Develop overseas markets
Balance between exports and domestic consumption
Policy Issues
Framework of the Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation
Boost investment Stimulate domestic consumption 9 Increase female and youth employment 7 8
Strategies and action plans I. Fair and efficient economy
Reforms targeting the public sector will be based on the principle of efficiency, and public institutions will be the main target of reform. Public enterprises will reduce their debt, end careless management practices and improve productivity.
EB 3월호 내지.indd 47
Private sector reform will be focused on correcting unfair business practices, and the primary focus will be to put a stop to unfair trade practices between large enterprises and small- and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs), to solve conflicts in the labor market by promoting a culture of mutual understanding between management and labor, and to increase consumer protection in the financial industry.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Policy Issues
On top of that, the government will strengthen the social safety net in order to support those left behind due to the reforms that will be carried out. 1. Public sector reform All information on public institutions will be made public.
48 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Public enterprises will be required to adopt separate accounting systems to efficiently manage resources by project and prevent profligate spending. Data from the separate accounts will be publicized in 2015. The government will put a limit on the amount of bonds public enterprises may issue, in order to increase their financial soundness. To put an end to unfair practices in public institutions, the government will ban contracts between public institutions and private firms for two years if private firms hire a former executive board member. In addition, the government will investigate unfair business transactions between public institutions and private firms. Regulations regarding contracts and business management in public institutions will be revised by the end of 2014. The government will streamline similar and overlapped projects, and more than 600 projects will be cut over the next three years. 2. Private sector reform The government will put an end to unfair subcontracting practices by offering up to a 500 million won reward for whistle blowing. Unfair subcontracting practices include sudden price cuts, technology theft, and the canceling of orders and returning of products without prior notice.
EB 3월호 내지.indd 48
The government will protect tenants’ rights for premiums they paid to former business owners to take over shops by developing regulations regarding premiums and introducing contract guidelines for leasing business spaces. 3. Stronger social safety net Unemployment benefits will be expanded to cover artists, self-employed workers, daily wage workers, insurance sales persons, tutors, delivery persons, caddies and concrete mixer truck drivers. The government will adjust the ceiling and bottom of unemployment benefits to ensure that the benefits are enough to support basic living expenses and not exceed minimum wage. The lower income group will be made eligible to apply for the ‘Growing Hope’ savings account, into which the government deposits 260,000 won for every 100,000 won deposited. This will encourage working as well as promote saving.
II. Growth through innovation The government will lift regulations and encourage entrepreneurs to start new companies in order to promote the creative economy. The whole cycle of business startup, growth and sales, followed by the starting of new businesses, will be supported with programs specifically designed for each stage. There will be increased investment in the future: investment in R&D, convergence between ICT and other industries, and future issues including climate change.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
The Three Year Plan also prioritizes overseas market development by promoting FTAs, overseas construction and plant construction, and content exports.
the government will quintuple funding from 20 billion won last year to 100 billion won this year. A total of 120 projects will receive funding over the next three years.
1. Creative economy The government will develop programs and establish centers to support the creative economy and promote entrepreneurship. Centers will be set up in 17 metropolitan cities and provinces to help develop regional enterprises and encourage regional talent to commercialize ideas.
To attract overseas talent, the government will launch a fellowship program that provides longterm support for research and living expenses. Around 37,000 people are expected to enroll in the program by 2017.
2. Investment in the future The government will spend more than 4 trillion won by 2017 to promote venture startups. Investment by 2017
(billion won)
Promote entrepreneurship to reach the target of 13,000 new entrepreneurs
1,059.8
Support enterprises which lead the creative economy
2,200.0
Encourage a “trying again” culture after business failure Total
773.0 4,032.8
The government will launch a startup support fund worth 760 billion won, and invest 460 billion won in the fund. The fund will be utilized to support youth startups and promote angel investment. To promote convergence of ICT and other industries,
EB 3월호 내지.indd 49
Policy Issues
The government will help utilize unused technologies by establishing a technology pool. Startups wanting to use the technologies will make contracts with technology providers, and the government will provide funding for the commercialization of those technologies.
3. Overseas market development The government will launch a joint venture capital fund of 200 billion won, composed of government fund (40%) and foreign investment (60%), to support venture exports. Foreign venture capital management agencies will take part in the management of the fund. The government will provide incentives by selling its shares at low prices and being the first to take losses.
49
4. Support for corporations and regional economies Leading medium-sized enterprises, in addition to SMEs, will be eligible for the 50 percent income or corporate tax reduction on revenues from technology sales and patents, assuming the tax revision passes the National Assembly. The government will develop business models to promote the construction of environmentally-friendly power plants, which are unpopular among residents. Construction will start in 2015 following a few pilot programs in different towns in 2014. The government will use foreign exchange reserves and provide funds of around US$10 billion through on-lending. Commercial banks will use the fund and finance overseas construction, overseas plant construction and facility imports. The facilities will be available in the second quarter of this year.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Policy Issues
III. Balance between exports and domestic consumption
Easing household debt burdens and the high cost of rental housing is the government’s top priority, since they impose constraints on consumption.
50 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The government will lift regulations and promote the service sector, which will lead to more investment. In addition, the government will continue to support training and work-study programs in order to increase youth employment, and will work on reemployment after maternity and childcare leaves to promote female employment. 1. Boosting domestic consumption The government will lower the ratio of household debt to disposable income by 5 percentage points, while promoting shifts from short-term and floating interest rate loans to long-term and fixed rate loans with amortized repayment plans by increasing the income tax reduction for debt servicing costs of longterm and fixed rate loans. The government will also promote nonbank financial institutions to restructure their mortgages. To ease the burden of increasing housing costs, the government will make rent income tax deductible while increasing the supply of rental homes. The government will supply 500,000 rental homes by 2017, while promoting private supply by easing regulations and giving tax incentives. 2. Deregulation Adoption of new regulations will have to be cost neutral beginning this year, and regulations will be adopted only when existing ones are lifted or revised.
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Regulations will be required to specify expiration dates and use the negative list approach, whenever possible. Regulation-related information will be made accessible via the government regulation information portal, where people can see government efforts to streamline regulations as well as learn about the regulations themselves. The mobile portal will open in March, and the online reporting of difficulties incurred by regulations will be made available starting in June. 3. Facilitating youth employment The government will promote the use of National Competency Standards (NCS) by further developing it to be used as job qualification standards. As many as 800 different NCSs will be developed by the end of 2014, and NCSs will be regularly updated to reflect changes in industrial needs. The government will further develop dual workstudy programs by giving incentives to participating companies and universities, and update public job training programs to reflect industrial demand. The public sector will hire more high school graduates. The government will encourage recent high school graduates (aged between 15 and 29) to work at SMEs that have had difficulties finding employees by introducing a special savings account designed to promote saving. Recent high school graduates working at SMEs and earning less than 50 million won a year will be eligible for the special savings account with high interest rates and tax incentives. The special account will be made available in the first half of 2015, and around 1.893 million young high school graduate employees will be able to benefit from it.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
4. Facilitating female employment To boost female employment, various childcare services designed according to specific needs will be made available. Mothers will have access to flexible childcare services according to their work hours at daycare centers and by nannies. Workers will be able to switch from full-time employment to part-time employment, and vice versa, more easily, and incentives for working part
time will be increased. Those working reduced hours due to childcare will receive 60 percent of their ‘ordinary wages’, an increase from 40 percent, and those working part time instead of retiring will receive compensation of up to 5 million won a year if their wage fell by more than 30 percent compared with their peak salary. Laws regarding part time employee protection and employment stimulus will be enacted in 2014.
51
1. Macroeconomy
2. Real economy Youths Age groups Women Elderly
- Reach 70 percent employment - 4 percent growth potential - Increase per capita income beyond US$30,000 and into US$40,000 2013
Difficult to go back to work after maternity or childcare leave
>
Low and unstable income
> pension plans and private pension plans
Household debt burdens,
Enterprises
EB 3월호 내지.indd 51
Employees
2017
Difficult to find jobs they want until they > Opportunities to be increased by implementing graduate and meet excessive requirements work-study programs
Households high housing and education costs Economic participants
Policy Issues
Expected outcomes in 2017
Discrimination against irregular workers in wages and working conditions
Developing one’s career and being a mother at the same time in a family friendly work environment Stable income with basic pension plans, retirement
>
- Household debt burdens to be eased - Number of home transactions to increase while rental home markets stabilize - Education costs to fall by more than 2 trillion won
>
Regular and irregular workers to receive compensation they deserve regardless of their status
Companies Investment hampered by regulations
> Increased investment in the creative economy
Small Frequent failure due to lack of expertise businesses
> training and tax incentives
Venture startups
Fundraising difficulties
> Difficulties to be eased for good business ideas
SMEs
SMEs want to retain SME status in order to continue receiving government support
>
Increased competitiveness and profit through
SMEs aggressively grow business and enter global markets
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
N
Policy Issues
3. Public sector reform Indices
2013
2017
Public institution debt (%)
239
200
36.2
35.6
National debt (% to GDP) Subsidies fraud
Conduct a thorough investigation to remove subsidies fraud
4. Investment
52
Indices
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2013
2017
R&D investment (% to GDP)
4.4
5.0
Investment in venture startups (trillion won)
1.4
3.0
2013
2017
5. Exports Indices Markets created by FTAs (% to global GDP)
55
70
Online exports (US$ million)
25
100
6. Service sector Indices Value added ratio Foreign investment (US$ billion) Foreign tourists (thousand)
2013
2017
58
Over 60
14.5
25.0
12,170
19,000
2013
2017
7. Employment and consumption Indices Youth employment (thousand, accumulated)
100 (as of 2014)
500
Female employment* (thousand, accumulated)
290 (as of 2014)
1,500
Household debt/disposable income (%) Education costs (trillion won)
High 160’s
Low 160’s
19
Less than 17
* Women aged between 16 and 64
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Ec o Ne no ws mi c Br iefi ng
53 E co n o m i c N ew s B r i e f i n g
Deputy Prime Minister meets with counterparts at G20 meeting Korea seals FTA with Canada Public institution reform plans finalized Korea signs MOU on energy cooperation with UAE Sustainable management continues to improve over the past 10 years FTA partners lead overall increase in trade Korea signs currency swap deal with Australia Government to ease M&A regulations
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14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Economic News Briefing
54 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Deputy Prime Minister meets with counterparts at G20 meeting
Korea seals FTA with Canada
At the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting held in Sydney, Australia on February 21-23, Deputy Prime Minister Hyun Oh-Seok met with Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey, British Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, and IMF managing director Christine Lagarde. Deputy Prime Minister Hyun acknowledged that while the tapering of quantitative easing would be good for the global economy, it could lead to fluctuations in financial markets, and suggested that contingency plans be drawn up at the G20 level to prepare for potential risks. At the meetings the Deputy Prime Minister also introduced Korea’s ‘Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation’, and noted that Korea’s growth strategies were in line with G20 growth strategies.
Korea and Canada concluded negotiations on their bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on March 11, agreeing to eliminate tariffs on most imports and exports within 10 years of the deal taking effect. Canada will remove tariffs on automobiles, which make up 40 percent of Korea’s total shipments to the nation, within three years, and also phase out tariffs on automobile parts, textiles and electronics. Korea has agreed to reduce tariffs on Canadian beef over the next 15 years. Addressing concerns about the FTA on Korea’s farming sector, 18.8 percent of agricultural products, including rice, will be exempt from the pact.
Deputy Prime Minister Hyun Oh-Seok (right) meets US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (left) during the opening session of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in Sydney, Australia on February 22, 2014.
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Sustainable management continues to improve over the past 10 years
The government has finalized plans for reforming the public institutions that have been reprimanded for high debt levels or lax management. The 18 institutions that were deemed ‘highly indebted’ will lower their debt levels by restructuring, selling assets and increasing management efficiency. If the debt reduction plans are successfully implemented, the debt levels of the 18 institutions, which had been forecast to continue climbing until 2017, will begin falling in 2016. The debt ratios of the public institutions will decline from 237 percent in 2013 to under 200 percent in 2017. Meanwhile, the 38 institutions that were flagged for ‘reckless management’ will have to curb employee benefits by 154.4 billion won compared to 2013. As a result, per person benefits will decline from an average of 4.27 million won to 2.90 million won.
Corporations in Korea have become more conscious of sustainable management over the last 10 years, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE). The ministry, which has been conducting a yearly survey on sustainable management since 2003, announced that the sustainability score of the nation’s major firms was 88.21 out of a total of 100. The score in 2003 was 66.9, and has been constantly on the rise. Categories assessed include sustainability vision, governance, ethical management, environmental management, workplace conditions, customer relations, and social contributions. Corporations scored relatively high this year in sustainability vision, environmental management and customer relations. Among the 134 firms surveyed, 37 received a triple-A rating in sustainable management, out of which 10 received the triple-A status for the fifth consecutive year.
Korea signs MOU on energy cooperation with UAE
FTA partners lead overall increase in trade
Korea and the UAE have signed an agreement to cooperate in fostering talent in the energy sector and develop energy markets in other countries. The memorandum of understanding (MOU) on energy cooperation, which was signed by the two nations on February 28, contains plans to train young experts in areas such as nuclear power, oil, natural gas, renewable energy, and energy efficiency. In addition, Korea and UAE have agreed to pool their technology, capital and human resources in order to make inroads into other markets such as Africa and Europe.
Korea’s trade volume increased 0.7 percent in 2013, led by trade with FTA partner nations. According to the Korea Customs Service, bilateral trade with FTA partners rose 2.9 percent, while trade with nonpartners declined 0.5 percent. Both exports and imports have improved more with FTA partners than with countries that have yet to sign free trade pacts with Korea. Exports to FTA partners and nonpartners increased 3.5 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. As for imports, shipments from FTA partners were up 2.2 percent, while shipments from non-partners fell 2.2 percent.
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55 E co n o m i c N ew s B r i e f i n g
Public institution reform plans finalized
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Economic News Briefing
Korea signs currency swap deal with Australia The Bank of Korea signed a currency swap agreement with the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 23, in order to promote bilateral trade. The deal enables the two nations to provide up to 5 trillion won or A$5 billion to each other for trade settlements. The effective period of the facility will be three years, and could be extended by mutual consent of both sides.
56 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Government to ease M&A regulations The government announced on March 6 measures to facilitate the domestic M&A market by easing related regulations. M&A transactions in Korea have been declining since the global financial crisis, falling from 811 in 2010 to 400 last year. The sluggish M&A market poses an obstacle to the economy, restricting business restructuring as well as investment in small companies and venture startups.
Australian wine is on display at a large supermarket in Seoul. The KoreaAustralia currency swap deal will ensure that trade between the two countries can continue to be settled in local currencies even in times of stress.
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Private equity firms will be allowed to acquire a company’s entire business, instead of being restricted to buying a stake in the company. Also, private equity-backed companies will be able to list in the stock exchange. Until now, there have been no cases of such companies going public, due to strict rules on investor protection. In addition, tax incentives and financial aid for M&A transactions will be expanded. The proposed measures are expected to facilitate corporate restructuring, provide an opportunity for local private equity funds to grow, and lead to advancements in the Korean M&A market.
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
1. National accounts
2. Production, shipment and inventory
57 Statistical Appendices
Stat i st App ic a en l dic es 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
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Statistical A ppendic es 1 National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices) Real GDP Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
4.0 5.2 5.1 2.3 0.3 6.3 3.7 2.0 2.8
1.3 1.5 4.0 5.6 3.2 -4.4 -2.1 -0.6 5.6
6.2 8.1 7.2 2.8 -1.5 14.7 7.3 2.2 3.0
4.6 5.1 5.1 2.0 1.2 4.1 2.3 2.2 2.1
2005 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.7 3.4 4.5 5.1
0.4 4.8 3.8 -3.1
4.8 3.9 6.7 9.3
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.1 5.1 5.0 4.6
3.9 -0.3 -1.4 4.2
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.5 5.3 4.9 5.7
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Period
Construction
Facilities
1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -1.0 5.8 -1.0 -1.7 3.8
-0.4 0.5 1.4 -2.8 3.4 -3.7 -4.7 -2.2 6.9
5.3 8.2 9.3 -1.0 -9.8 25.7 3.6 -1.9 -1.5
2.7 4.7 5.9 4.9
-0.3 1.8 1.5 3.9
-3.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3
3.4 2.8 4.1 10.8
9.4 9.1 8.7 5.4
5.8 4.9 4.6 5.1
3.8 0.1 4.0 5.7
1.9 -4.2 -0.5 5.1
7.2 8.0 12.0 5.7
1.6 7.0 8.2 -0.7
4.5 7.2 6.3 10.2
5.1 5.4 5.3 4.7
7.3 5.7 1.5 3.1
4.4 2.0 -0.2 0.4
12.6 13.0 4.0 8.0
5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3
7.8 4.6 4.3 6.5
8.9 8.3 5.3 -9.4
4.3 3.0 2.4 -1.7
-0.6 0.6 2.1 -8.7
-2.5 -0.5 0.4 -7.7
2.8 2.0 5.3 -13.3
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4.2 -2.1 1.0 6.3
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-13.6 -7.1 1.8 13.1
-2.2 0.7 1.5 4.8
-7.5 -3.0 -1.0 6.2
1.6 4.3 3.2 4.0
-21.9 -18.1 -9.4 12.2
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
8.7 7.6 4.5 4.9
-0.1 -2.2 -7.8 -5.9
22.4 17.6 9.5 11.0
6.1 3.6 3.5 3.0
11.2 5.8 5.6 2.3
1.8 -4.7 -4.9 -5.2
29.6 32.0 26.3 16.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.3 3.5 3.6 3.4
-9.7 -2.6 -5.8 7.1
10.3 7.4 6.4 5.5
2.8 2.8 2.4 1.3
-1.4 0.4 -1.4 -1.8
-10.0 -4.7 -3.6 -1.7
10.5 7.7 1.1 -3.6
2012P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.8 2.4 1.6 1.5
-0.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.5
4.1 2.7 0.9 1.3
2.1 1.6 2.1 2.8
3.7 -2.6 -2.5 -4.2
-0.4 -3.1 -0.3 -4.2
8.8 -3.5 -6.9 -5.2
2013P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
1.5 2.3 3.3 3.9
0.3 2.7 7.3 9.7
1.0 2.1 3.9 5.0
1.4 2.3 2.3 2.5
-3.8 2.9 5.9 8.8
2.4 7.2 8.6 8.1
-11.9 -4.6 1.5 9.9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P
58
Gross fixed capital formation
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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2 Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100) Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
106.0 107.4 107.8
6.0 1.3 0.4
105.6 107.2 107.6
5.6 1.5 0.4
119.9 125.2 132.8
15.0 4.4 6.1
103.2 104.8 106.3
3.2 1.6 1.4
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.6 107.5 104.0 109.7
9.1 6.2 5.4 3.4
103.4 106.6 103.2 109.3
10.0 5.4 4.7 2.8
104.9 109.8 112.3 119.9
7.8 11.8 11.4 15.0
99.4 103.4 103.2 106.7
2.8 2.7 4.2 3.0
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
105.7 108.9 103.9 112.7
-0.8 0.0 0.2 1.9
105.7 108.9 104.0 111.8
-0.8 0.5 0.2 1.8
123.1 119.4 125.0 132.8
4.6 4.0 9.2 6.1
102.9 106.7 105.6 109.9
0.9 1.7 0.8 2.1
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.0 106.1 111.6 106.8 110.7 109.2 106.0 100.3 104.7 108.8 112.6 110.3
-3.1 15.3 0.9 0.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.8 3.0 0.1
102.8 106.1 111.0 106.2 109.9 109.2 105.2 99.9 106.2 108.2 111.0 110.1
-2.8 13.5 0.1 -0.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 -1.4 1.9 -0.9 2.6 -0.3
119.3 117.4 117.7 116.5 118.2 114.8 115.4 119.3 114.5 116.1 121.3 125.2
14.2 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.8 4.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 0.6 3.1 4.4
100.3 99.9 105.7 102.8 105.9 105.9 104.8 103.9 105.7 104.7 105.5 112.7
0.3 6.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.5 0.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
110.9 96.9 109.2 109.1 110.2 107.4 107.5 103.5 100.7 112.7 111.8 113.5
8.7 -8.7 -2.2 2.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.4 3.2 -3.8 3.6 -0.7 2.9
109.5 97.8 109.8 108.8 109.8 108.1 106.6 104.4 100.9 112.0 111.3 112.0
6.5 -7.8 -1.1 2.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 4.5 -5.0 3.5 0.3 1.7
128.3 124.6 123.1 121.0 122.2 119.4 124.2 123.8 125.0 126.9 129.2 132.8
7.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.0 7.6 3.8 9.2 9.3 6.5 6.1
102.1 100.2 106.4 105.4 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.6 105.5 107.7 107.4 114.5
1.8 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.8 1.6
2014 1P
106.7
-3.8
104.9
-4.2
136.3
6.2
104.1
2.0
59 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Statistical A ppendic es 3 Production capacity and operation ratio Period
60
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013P
104.7 106.9 108.7
4.7 2.1 1.7
100.2 97.5 94.8
0.2 -2.7 -2.8
80.5 78.5 76.2
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.5 104.5 105.0 105.6
5.7 5.1 4.3 3.5
97.8 103.5 97.7 101.9
2.2 0.8 0.1 -2.0
81.4 80.6 80.9 79.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
108.2 108.4 108.9 109.3
1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7
93.3 97.4 90.5 97.9
-4.3 -3.6 -2.9 -0.4
77.3 75.9 75.1 76.6
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.7 107.2 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.6
2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.9
92.5 97.2 102.9 98.9 102.6 101.4 97.2 88.3 94.1 98.1 100.7 96.1
-8.0 11.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -6.9 -3.6 -4.6 -1.7 -4.5
80.0 80.4 79.2 79.6 79.9 78.9 78.4 74.3 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
108.1 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.7 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.6
1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
98.5 84.5 96.8 97.4 99.0 95.9 94.3 90.4 86.7 99.2 97.9 96.7
6.5 -13.1 -5.9 -1.5 -3.5 -5.4 -3.0 2.4 -7.9 1.1 -2.8 0.6
78.8 77.1 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 74.8 76.3 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.3
2014 1P
109.5
1.3
91.6
-7.0
78.2
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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4 Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100) Consumer goods sales index Period
y-o-y change (%)
Durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Semi-durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Non-durable goods y-o-y change (%)
104.5 107.0 107.9
4.5 2.4 0.8
110.6 116.2 116.6
10.6 5.3 0.3
103.7 103.8 105.9
3.7 -0.4 2.0
102.1 104.1 104.7
2.1 2.0 0.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 104.8 103.7 108.9
5.3 6.2 4.0 2.6
105.4 112.2 111.4 113.3
11.5 16.9 10.3 4.4
98.3 105.5 94.2 116.7
5.1 5.2 3.6 1.2
99.6 101.2 104.4 103.3
2.7 2.0 1.5 2.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.4 106.4 106.5 111.6
2.8 1.4 2.7 2.5
109.4 114.9 118.4 122.0
4.0 2.6 6.4 8.3
99.0 105.5 92.3 118.4
0.6 -0.5 -2.3 0.5
102.6 102.8 107.2 103.8
3.1 1.7 2.8 0.5
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
103.7 107.7 107.2 112.9
0.3 1.2 0.7 1.2
110.9 118.2 116.8 120.2
1.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5
101.7 107.2 95.0 119.6
2.7 1.6 2.9 1.0
101.2 103.0 108.0 106.6
-1.4 0.2 0.7 2.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.5 97.8 105.0 103.0 110.1 106.1 108.2 102.3 109.1 109.0 111.6 114.3
2.1 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.3 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.1
107.2 107.2 113.7 107.3 117.3 120.0 125.6 114.0 115.7 117.1 123.1 125.9
3.3 9.8 -0.4 1.0 4.4 2.2 7.4 4.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 10.6
104.7 91.9 100.4 104.8 111.4 100.3 97.3 82.1 97.6 114.8 118.8 121.5
-0.2 2.0 0.1 -1.3 0.8 -0.9 0.9 -5.1 -3.0 -2.0 5.1 -1.4
108.8 96.0 102.9 100.1 106.1 102.1 104.9 105.7 111.1 102.7 103.0 105.8
2.4 4.8 2.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 -0.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
104.6 99.5 107.0 105.3 110.8 106.9 109.2 104.6 107.7 111.2 113.1 114.5
-2.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.2 -1.3 2.0 1.3 0.2
112.2 105.9 114.7 115.0 119.5 120.2 127.4 116.3 106.8 120.4 120.2 120.1
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.0 -7.7 2.8 -2.4 -4.6
102.9 93.1 109.2 106.4 113.8 101.5 98.1 87.1 99.9 113.6 123.5 121.8
-1.7 1.3 8.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.8 6.1 2.4 -1.0 4.0 0.2
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.1 105.5 106.9 111.6 105.9 105.3 108.7
-6.5 3.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 3.1 2.2 2.7
2014 1P
110.6
5.7
118.4
5.5
99.7
-3.1
118.8
9.9
61 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013P
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 5 Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods
Period
62
y-o-y change (%)
Non-durable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013P
100.9 102.5 101.9
0.9 1.6 -0.6
100.3 102.8 103.1
0.3 2.5 0.3
101.2 102.4 101.4
1.2 1.2 -1.0
-
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
101.0 97.9 101.5 103.3
4.6 0.9 0.8 -2.2
99.5 100.7 100.9 100.1
3.8 3.1 -0.1 -5.0
101.6 96.8 101.7 104.6
4.7 0.2 1.1 -1.1
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
102.8 98.4 102.1 104.5
2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4
108.0 100.6 102.3 101.5
10.4 1.5 -0.2 -9.4
100.5 97.4 101.9 105.8
-1.5 -2.8 -1.9 2.3
-
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100.6 98.6 103.1 99.2 101.6 98.9 102.8 101.5 106.1 106.6 105.7 105.7
-7.0 10.9 -2.6 0.9 5.9 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 4.7 1.5
92.5 98.3 102.5 94.1 100.4 102.8 105.3 98.4 103.9 108.5 110.9 116.5
-8.3 6.0 -2.4 -3.6 1.2 -2.4 0.7 0.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 15.5
104.0 98.7 103.3 101.3 102.1 97.3 101.8 102.9 107.0 105.7 103.5 101.1
-6.6 13.1 -2.6 2.6 8.0 0.2 3.4 -1.1 4.4 -0.8 1.6 -4.1
98 102 102 106 106 101 100 101 99 100 100 99
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
108.4 96.7 103.2 99.1 99.3 96.7 103.2 103.7 99.3 108.7 102.8 102.0
7.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 2.2 -6.4 2.0 -2.7 -3.5
110.4 106.1 107.6 97.9 101.3 102.6 108.8 103.6 94.6 104.3 102.9 97.4
19.4 7.9 5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.3 -9.0 -3.9 -7.2 -16.4
107.5 92.6 101.3 99.6 98.5 94.1 100.8 103.7 101.3 110.6 102.7 104.0
3.4 -6.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 -5.3 4.6 -0.8 2.9
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1P 2
102.1 -
-5.8 -
99.8 -
-9.6 -
103.1 -
-4.1 -
109 108
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 62
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6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total
Period
2011 2012 2013P
Public
y-o-y change (%)
Private
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Estimated facility investment index y-o-y (2010=100)
change (%)
7.6 -13.9 6.7
2,407 2,142 2,580
-2.6 -11.0 20.5
22,741 19,506 20,524
8.8 -14.2 5.2
103.5 100.6 99.3
3.5 -2.8 -1.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,383 6,723 5,666 6,376
15.3 9.6 -0.7 6.4
358 708 310 1,031
-36.7 83.1 -18.6 -9.5
6,025 6,015 5,356 5,345
21.2 4.6 0.6 10.1
97.0 109.4 104.5 103.0
5.2 7.4 3.2 -1.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
5,592 5,867 5,148 6,498
-11.4 8.8 2.2 32.4
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,163 5,313 4,625 5,423
-6.1 4.0 3.8 22.1
91.2 100.6 98.8 106.4
-13.1 -4.0 2.7 10.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,933 2,541 1,836 1,845 1,830 1,716 1,835 1,509 1,693 1,511 1,656 1,743
-0.8 25.1 -23.6 -4.4 -14.4 -35.4 -9.4 -14.2 -10 -22.5 -27.8 -18.3
52 695 63 56 39 190 310 169 100 86 127 255
-22.2 829.0 -70.9 -10.3 -72.8 -62.2 135.5 105.9 3.5 -72.3 -75.8 31.2
1,881 1,846 1,773 1,789 1,791 1,526 1,525 1,339 1,593 1,425 1,529 1,488
0.0 -5.7 -18.9 -4.3 -10.2 -29.1 -19.5 -20.1 -10.7 -13.1 -13.5 -23.3
97.7 109.1 108.2 106.2 105.8 102.3 105.4 90.1 93.1 94.5 92.4 102.2
5.6 26.4 -3.5 3.0 -4.9 -10.2 -1.6 -16.5 -5.5 1.1 -10 -9.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
1,847 1,666 2,079 1,846 2,127 1,894 1,935 1,623 1,589 2,606 2,109 1,784
-4.4 -34.4 13.2 0 16.2 10.4 5.5 7.6 -6.1 72.4 27.4 2.4
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.4 -28.5 815.4 28.2 -51.4
1,708 1,498 1,957 1,754 1,877 1,682 1,576 1,531 1,518 1,818 1,946 1,660
-9.2 -18.8 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.4 14.3 -4.7 27.5 27.3 11.6
89.8 83.5 100.4 98.2 101.6 102.0 108.0 100.1 88.2 108.9 101.4 108.9
-8.1 -23.5 -7.2 -7.5 -4 -0.3 2.5 11.1 -5.3 15.2 9.7 6.6
2014 1P
1,851
0.2
92
-33.7
1,758
3.0
88.3
-1.7
63 Statistical Appendices
25,148 21,648 23,105
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 7 Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won) Period
64
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (Total) (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction y-o-y orders change received y-o-y (%) (Total) change (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013P
91,717 88,713 97,938
-0.6 -3.3 10.4
35,120 33,807 34,532
-0.1 -3.7 2.1
51,663 50,622 59,492
-2.2 -2.0 17.5
95,332 89,395 75,644
6.1 -6.2 -15.4
28,624 26,071 24,574
-2.0 -8.9 -5.7
61,839 59,811 48,888
12.3 -3.3 -18.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,277 24,057 21,423 26,960
-5.2 -0.1 -2.7 4.4
7,322 9,290 7,684 10,825
-2.1 1.8 -1.5 0.7
11,031 13,339 12,597 14,696
-7.9 -4.3 -4.3 6.9
16,335 25,319 20,444 33,233
-11.5 -0.9 5.6 25.5
4,119 6,311 6,711 11,483
-49.0 -8.4 -1.4 54.5
11,107 17,653 12,871 20,209
20.3 4.7 12.1 15.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ ⅣP
20,145 25,707 23,679 28,407
4.5 14.7 10.9 10.6
7,005 9,345 8,083 10,099
-5.9 5.1 6.4 2.3
12,375 15,377 14,674 17,066
13.6 23.6 15.8 16.8
13,425 18,143 16,454 27,621
-40.8 -29.5 -10.6 22.2
4,289 5,348 4,910 10,025
-24.1 -4.0 -9.1 6.2
8,781 12,108 11,165 16,832
-46.2 -36.6 -10.8 41.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,796 6,035 7,444 6,844 7,307 8,259 7,037 6,582 7,732 7,343 8,098 10,235
-6.3 13.2 -4.1 -4.5 -1.8 -12.6 4.2 -4.6 -0.5 -7.8 3.0 -8.1
2,123 -12.9 2,373 17.0 2,945 3.1 2,644 -3.6 2,873 3.0 3,374 -10.2 2,372 -0.3 2,322 -5.6 2,904 2.1 2,591 -10.7 3,003 -5.3 4,282 -9.9
3,373 3,405 4,115 3,903 4,106 4,431 4,281 3,943 4,452 4,452 4,773 5,387
-3.3 11.3 -8.2 -4.0 -3.4 -11.8 5.4 -3.8 0.3 -4.7 11.2 -6.0
7,468 8,488 6,714 6,428 7,310 11,993 6,823 5,390 6,181 5,800 7,239 9,556
52.0 108.1 -8.6 -4.2 2.3 4.6 32.3 -28.8 -19.9 -22.6 -19.9 -42.8
2,034 2,218 1,402 1,453 1,061 3,056 2,304 1,316 1,780 1,970 2,105 5,366
54.6 57.5 0.6 1.7 -43.9 2.2 24.2 -12.5 -46.9 -14.9 -29.5 -13.1
5,269 6,121 4,918 4,461 6,133 8,505 4,329 4,032 4,161 3,787 4,798 3,290
81.4 144.1 -13.6 -3.6 29.4 2.7 39.9 -30.3 4.2 -24.1 -18.3 -64.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12P
6,266 6,222 7,657 8,089 8,142 9,476 7,839 7,657 8,183 8,628 9,083 10,696
8.1 3.1 2.9 18.2 11.4 14.7 11.4 16.3 5.8 17.5 12.2 4.5
2,072 -2.4 2,345 -1.2 2,589 -12.1 2,839 7.4 2,805 -2.4 3,700 9.7 2,643 11.5 2,561 10.3 2,878 -0.9 2,958 14.2 3,124 4.0 4,017 -6.2
3,956 3,650 4,769 4,954 5,062 5,361 4,885 4,810 4,979 5,329 5,625 6,112
17.3 7.2 15.9 26.9 23.3 21.0 14.1 22.0 11.8 19.7 17.8 13.5
3,546 4,431 5,447 4,946 6,073 7,124 5,675 4,708 6,070 7,346 7,895 12,379
-52.5 -47.8 -18.9 -23.1 -16.9 -40.6 -16.8 -12.6 -1.8 26.7 9.1 29.5
1,289 1,287 1,713 1,558 1,559 2,231 1,412 1,493 2,004 1,500 2,648 5,877
-36.6 -42.0 22.1 7.2 47.0 -27.0 -38.7 13.5 12.6 -23.9 25.8 9.5
2,108 2,992 3,680 2,962 4,393 4,753 4,153 3,171 3,840 5,756 5,004 6,070
-60.0 -51.1 -25.2 -33.6 -28.4 -44.1 -4.1 -21.4 -7.7 52.0 4.3 84.5
2014 1P
7,114
13.5
2,396
4,415
11.6
5,260
48.3
2,102
63.0
3,012
42.8
15.6
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
8 Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Cyclical component of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical component of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.2 101.5 101.6 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.4
100.8 100.7 100.4 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.3 98.1
103.3 103.4 104.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.5 106.9 106.8 107.2
101.1 100.9 101.0 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.5 100.5
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.2 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.5 107.5 107.9 108.0 107.8 108.1 108.8 109.5
98.5 99.2 99.2 99.4 99.1 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9 98.8 99.1 99.4
107.3 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.9 109.8 110.3 110.2 110.8 111.4
100.2 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.0
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.0
99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 99.7 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.5
111.7 112.2 112.3 112.9 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.7
100.0 100.0 99.7 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.4
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3
117.5 -
101.5 -
117.6 -
100.7 -
89.4 87.0 -
93.4 88.7 104.4
65 Statistical Appendices
Leading index (2010=100)
Period
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 65
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Statistical A ppendic es 9 Balance of payments (I) (US$ million) Current account
Goods
26,068.2 48,082.3 70,706.4
31,660.0 39,816.7 60,695.9
551,765.4 554,174.7 570,887.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
1,406.40 5,374.00 7,893.60 11,394.20
5,046.70 8,277.10 7,472.20 10,864.00
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2,921.80 13,438.00 15,493.40 16,229.10
2013PⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
520,105.4 514,358.0 510,191.4
-5,849.5 5,733.7 5,996.2
2,890.9 5,717.9 4,803.2
-2,633.2 -3,186.0 -788.9
127,215.80 142,371.20 141,037.20 141,141.20
122,169.10 134,094.10 133,565.00 130,277.20
-3,261.00 -1,616.90 -518.00 -453.60
562.60 -615.20 1,445.70 1,497.80
-941.90 -671.00 -506.30 -514.00
3,361.80 9,840.40 12,300.30 14,314.20
135,699.10 139,579.60 136,426.90 142,469.10
132,337.30 129,739.20 124,126.60 128,154.90
-964.70 3,001.50 2,563.30 1,133.60
1,758.20 1,114.20 1,153.10 1,692.40
-1,233.50 -518.10 -523.30 -911.10
9,971.8 19,803.0 18,981.4 21,950.2
9,339.8 15,838.1 16,623.4 18,894.60
137,293.0 142,434.4 140,879.1 150,280.80
127,953.2 126,596.3 124,255.7 131,386.20
-483.0 3,761.9 1,330.1 1,387.2
1,375.0 62.2 1,571.6 1,794.4
-260.0 140.8 -543.7 -126.0
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-554.20 477.10 2,998.90 2,594.00 4,258.20 6,585.80 6,891.50 2,521.20 6,080.70 6,347.60 7,536.80 2,344.70
-1,080.10 1,430.30 3,011.60 2,023.90 2,207.90 5,608.60 5,415.40 1,983.50 4,901.40 5,469.50 7,055.20 1,789.50
41,751.40 46,103.60 47,844.10 46,029.70 46,510.50 47,039.40 46,465.90 42,765.50 47,195.50 48,253.80 49,775.40 44,439.90
42,831.50 44,673.30 44,832.50 44,005.80 44,302.60 41,430.80 41,050.50 40,782.00 42,294.10 42,784.30 42,720.20 42,650.40
-316.20 -1,377.80 729.30 1,078.90 1,654.10 268.50 1,221.90 214.10 1,127.30 606.10 246.80 280.70
1,280.70 689.90 -212.40 -325.70 486.90 953.00 460.40 502.40 190.30 548.50 420.10 723.80
-438.60 -265.30 -529.60 -183.10 -90.70 -244.30 -206.20 -178.80 -138.30 -276.50 -185.30 -449.30
2013P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2,331.7 2,712.9 4,927.2 3,926.9 8,638.8 7,237.3 6,766.7 5,676.7 6,538.0 9,507.6 6,033.3 6,409.3
2,617.7 2,562.9 4,159.2 3,543.3 7,270.0 5,024.8 5,674.0 5,280.1 5,669.3 7,028.2 6,175.0 5,707.5
47,163.0 42,218.6 47,911.4 47,482.1 49,593.9 45,358.4 48,387.5 46,218.3 46,273.3 52,225.5 48,809.6 49,276.9
44,545.3 39,655.7 43,752.2 43,938.8 42,323.9 40,333.6 42,713.5 40,938.2 40,604.0 45,197.3 42,634.6 43,569.4
-927.1 -461.0 905.1 1,447.6 1,130.5 1,183.8 357.0 100.6 872.5 1,646.8 -697.2 437.6
968.4 628.9 -222.3 -1,088.6 193.6 957.2 776.5 475.2 319.9 786.0 588.8 419.6
-327.3 -17.9 85.2 24.6 44.7 71.5 -40.8 -179.2 -323.7 46.6 -33.3 -135.6
2014P 1
3,606.5
3,321.7
47,238.5
43,916.8
-587.7
693.4
179.1
Period
2011 2012 2013P
66
Exports
Imports
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 66
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
10 Balance of payments (II) (US$ million) Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
2011 2012 2013P
-26,778.0 -50,830.1 -72,853.5
-16,410.0 -18,923.9 -13,062.3
13,109.3 6,863.2 -6,940.4
-1,031.3 2,627.8 3,839.7
-8,468.6 -28,756.0 -41,768.6
-24.7 543.4 -410.6
-13,952.8 -13,184.5 -14,478.5
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
900.3 -3,747.9 -10,291.2 -13,639.2
-5,503.5 -4,143.6 -2,701.2 -4,061.7
-470.4 4,045.6 8,334.0 1,200.1
922.4 -160.6 -1,535.5 -257.6
9,666.0 -718.8 -20,833.7 3,417.9
-194.9 -152.4 119.0 203.6
-3,519.4 -2,618.0 6,326.1 -14,141.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-2,315.7 -7,606.3 -17,064.8 -23,843.3
-7,507.2 -2,689.2 -5,359.6 -3,367.9
14,771.1 -6,775.4 4,224.4 -5,356.9
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-4,497.2 1,173.1 -12,686.9 -12,745.0
166.9 284.7 78.6 13.2
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-10,901.4 -19,112.7 -19,643.3 -23,196.1
-4,065.9 -2,554.7 -3,124.4 -3,317.3
-5,769.9 -8,374.8 9,272.8 -2,068.5
1,418.9 -604.6 1,694.0 1,331.4
1,294.3 -11,584.9 -20,788.4 -10,722.4
152.0 -59.6 -119.1 -383.9
-3,930.8 4,065.9 -6,578.2 -8,035.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-427.0 1,743.6 -3,632.3 -45.9 -3,241.9 -4,318.5 -9,147.2 -2,228.2 -5,689.4 -6,832.7 -11,468.7 -5,541.9
-2,293.9 -3,571.9 -1,641.4 -856.5 -1,132.5 -700.2 -1,656.2 -1,637.6 -2,065.8 -938.0 -1,324.1 -1,105.8
7,905.5 6,245.8 619.8 -3,105.1 -1,881.8 -1,788.5 1,741.4 670.8 1,812.2 -4,733.5 -3,876.8 3,253.4
452.6 245.8 500.1 215.0 -480.7 -4.9 358.8 -35.5 272.0 -137.8 631.8 610.6
-4,040.4 996.0 -1,452.8 3,738.1 -1,159.8 -1,405.2 -8,292.0 -140.9 -4,254.0 458.8 -4,307.7 -8,896.1
11.3 54.5 101.1 102.7 144.1 37.9 36.7 9.6 32.3 -6.1 5.9 13.4
-2,462.1 -2,226.6 -1,759.1 -140.1 1,268.8 -457.6 -1,335.9 -1,094.6 -1,486.0 -1,476.1 -2,597.8 582.6
2013P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-910.3 -3,269.1 -6,722.0 -2,606.4 -11,596.0 -4,910.3 -7,442.6 -7,593.4 -4,607.3 -10,128.3 -6,467.5 -6,600.3
-1,417.7 -777.8 -1,870.4 303.3 -1,482.2 -1,375.8 -981.0 -915.2 -1,228.2 54.2 -1,862.2 -1,509.3
-4,374.3 1,993.5 -3,389.1 -1,917.5 -1,171.9 -5,285.4 1,847.4 1,438.4 5,987.0 4,504.4 -1,408.8 -5,164.1
586.9 686.9 145.1 -313.2 649.2 -940.6 443.3 218.1 1,032.6 713.1 14.0 604.3
4,643.9 -3,218.3 -131.3 -1,584.7 -8,534.9 -1,465.3 -6,641.3 -6,717.8 -7,429.3 -10,659.6 -229.7 166.9
48.5 37.8 65.7 -36.8 -16.8 -6.0 -119.5 66.8 -66.4 -40.5 -134.8 -208.6
-397.6 -1,991.2 -1,542.0 942.5 -1,039.4 4,162.8 -1,991.5 -1,683.7 -2,903.0 -4,699.9 -2,846.0 -489.5
2014P 1
-2,185.6
1,131.6
-4,267.3
155.5
3,702.9
-1.6
-2,906.7
Period
Capital transfers & acquisition of Reserve assets nonfinancial assets
67 Statistical Appendices
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 67
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Statistical A ppendic es 11 Prices (2010=100) Consumer Prices Period
All Items
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices
Services
y-o-y change (%)
Core
y-o-y change (%)
All Items
y-o-y change (%)
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2011
104.0
4.0
105.7
5.7
102.7
2.7
103.2
3.2
106.7
6.7
108.7
2012
106.3
2.2
108.9
3.0
104.2
1.4
104.9
1.6
107.5
0.7
108.9
8.7 0.2
2013
107.7
1.3
110.1
1.0
105.8
1.5
106.6
1.6
105.7
-1.6
106.2
-2.5
2011 7
104.3
4.5
105.9
6.4
103.1
2.9
103.7
3.6
107.2
7.0
109.3
9.1
8
105.0
4.7
107.1
6.8
103.3
3.0
103.8
3.5
107.4
6.9
109.5
8.9
9
104.9
3.8
107.1
5.0
103.1
2.7
103.7
3.3
107.4
6.3
109.6
8.0
10
104.7
3.6
106.6
4.5
103.2
2.8
103.6
3.2
107.3
5.8
109.4
7.4
68
11
104.8
4.2
106.8
6.0
103.3
2.7
103.9
3.5
107.0
5.1
108.9
6.5
12
105.2
4.2
107.3
5.7
103.5
2.8
104.3
3.6
107.1
4.3
109.0
5.3
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2012 1
105.7
3.4
107.9
4.4
103.9
2.7
104.6
3.2
107.7
3.2
109.5
3.6
2
106.1
3.1
108.5
3.9
104.2
2.5
104.7
2.5
108.4
3.1
110.5
3.6
3
106.0
2.6
109.2
4.1
103.5
1.4
104.3
1.9
108.9
2.4
111.2
2.7
4
106.0
2.5
108.9
4.1
103.7
1.3
104.4
1.8
109.0
1.9
111.1
1.9
5
106.2
2.5
109.2
4.3
103.9
1.3
104.6
1.6
108.4
1.0
110.3
0.7
6
106.1
2.2
108.8
3.6
104.0
1.2
104.9
1.5
107.1
0.0
108.4
-0.7
7
105.9
1.5
107.9
1.9
104.2
1.1
104.9
1.2
106.6
-0.6
107.6
-1.5
8
106.3
1.2
108.8
1.6
104.4
1.1
105.1
1.3
107.2
-0.1
108.6
-0.9
9
107.0
2.0
110.4
3.1
104.4
1.3
105.2
1.4
107.6
0.2
109.2
-0.4
10
106.9
2.1
109.8
3.0
104.6
1.4
105.2
1.5
106.8
-0.5
107.8
-1.4
11
106.5
1.6
108.9
2.0
104.6
1.3
105.3
1.3
106.1
-0.9
106.8
-1.9
12
106.7
1.4
109.0
1.6
104.8
1.3
105.5
1.2
105.8
-1.2
106.4
-2.3
2013 1
107.3
1.6
109.9
1.7
105.3
1.5
105.9
1.3
106.0
-1.6
106.8
-2.5
2
107.7
1.6
110.4
1.6
105.6
1.5
106.2
1.4
106.7
-1.6
107.8
-2.5
3
107.6
1.5
110.4
1.1
105.4
1.7
106.0
1.6
106.3
-2.4
107.1
-3.7
4
107.5
1.3
109.9
0.9
105.6
1.7
106.0
1.6
105.9
-2.8
106.6
-4.1
5
107.5
1.1
109.6
0.4
105.7
1.8
106.4
1.7
105.6
-2.6
106.1
-3.8
6
107.3
1.2
109.4
0.7
105.7
1.6
106.6
1.6
105.5
-1.4
106.0
-2.2
7
107.6
1.6
109.7
1.7
105.9
1.5
106.7
1.7
105.5
-1.0
106.0
-1.6
8
107.9
1.5
110.3
1.5
106.1
1.5
106.7
1.5
105.8
-1.3
106.2
-2.1
9
108.1
1.0
110.9
0.4
106.0
1.5
107.0
1.7
105.7
-1.8
106.1
-2.8
10
107.8
0.9
110.1
0.3
106.0
1.4
107.1
1.8
105.3
-1.4
105.5
-2.2
11
107.8
1.2
110.1
1.0
106.0
1.3
107.4
2.0
105.1
-0.9
105.2
-1.5
12
107.8
1.2
110.1
1.0
106.0
1.3
107.4
2.0
105.1
-0.9
105.2
-1.5
2014 1
108.5
1.1
110.9
0.9
106.6
1.3
107.7
1.7
105.6
-0.3
105.7
-1.0
Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 68
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
12 Employment
Period
Economically active persons (thousand)
Employed persons (thousand) All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Manufacturing
y-o-y change (%)
SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment (%)
25,099
1.4
24,244
1.7
4,091
1.6
18,595
2.1
3.4
2012
25,501
1.6
24,681
1.8
4,105
0.3
19,033
2.4
3.2
2013
25,873
1.5
25,066
1.6
4,184
1.9
19,347
1.6
3.1
2011 7
25,473
1.0
24,636
1.4
4,079
1.0
18,844
1.9
3.3
8
25,257
1.7
24,495
2.0
4,031
-0.7
18,739
3.1
3.0
9
25,076
0.7
24,318
1.1
4,014
-1.2
18,595
2.1
3.0
10
25,409
1.6
24,673
2.1
4,044
-1.3
18,856
3.2
2.9
11
25,318
1.9
24,589
2.0
4,054
-2.1
18,921
3.2
2.9
12
24,880
1.4
24,125
1.9
4,071
-2.1
18,833
3.1
3.0
2012 1
24,585
2.0
23,732
2.3
4,034
-2.8
18,631
3.5
3.5
2
24,825
1.6
23,783
1.9
4,060
-2.1
18,599
3.2
4.2
3
25,210
1.2
24,265
1.8
4,018
-2.5
18,870
3.4
3.7
4
25,653
1.6
24,758
1.9
4,027
-2.0
19,103
3.1
3.5
5
25,939
1.8
25,133
1.9
4,071
-1.6
19,292
3.0
3.1
6
25,939
1.4
25,117
1.5
4,084
-1.2
19,248
2.3
3.2
7
25,901
1.7
25,106
1.9
4,114
0.8
19,265
2.2
3.1
8
25,623
1.4
24,859
1.5
4,111
2.0
19,040
1.6
3.0
9
25,755
2.7
25,003
2.8
4,153
3.5
19,125
2.8
2.9
10
25,787
1.5
25,069
1.6
4,188
3.6
19,128
1.4
2.8
11
25,652
1.3
24,941
1.4
4,218
4.0
19,088
0.9
2.8
12
25,139
1.0
24,402
1.1
4,183
2.8
19,010
0.9
2.9
2013 1
24,901
1.3
24,054
1.4
4,189
3.9
18,810
1.0
3.4
2
24,973
0.6
23,984
0.8
4,139
1.9
18,736
0.7
4.0
3
25,397
0.7
24,514
1.0
4,141
3.1
18,989
0.6
3.5
4
25,928
1.1
25,103
1.4
4,192
4.1
19,303
1.0
3.2
5
26,195
1.0
25,398
1.1
4,175
2.6
19,492
1.0
3.0
6
26,291
1.4
25,478
1.4
4,180
2.3
19,531
1.5
3.1
7
26,301
1.5
25,473
1.5
4,167
1.3
19,577
1.6
3.1
8
26,074
1.7
25,291
1.7
4,116
0.1
19,438
2.1
3.0
9
26,186
1.7
25,466
1.9
4,174
0.5
19,540
2.2
2.7
10
26,268
1.9
25,545
1.9
4,218
0.7
19,558
2.2
2.8
11
26,230
2.3
25,530
2.4
4,253
0.8
19,670
3.0
2.7
12
25,736
2.4
24,962
2.3
4,264
2.0
19,514
2.7
3.0
2014 1
25,650
3.0
24,759
2.9
4,280
2.2
19,376
3.0
3.5
2
25,997
4.1
24,819
3.5
4,274
3.3
19,407
3.6
4.5
69 Statistical Appendices
2011
Source: Statistics Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 69
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
Statistical A ppendic es 13 Financial indicators (period average) Period
70
Yields(%)
Stock
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI(end-period)
2010 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,044.87
2014 1 2
2.5 2.5
2.7 2.7
3.3 3.3
2.9 2.9
3.3 3.2
1,941.15 1,979.99
Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 3월호 내지.indd 70
14. 3. 21. 오후 7:14
14 Monetary indicators (billion won) Period
Reserve money
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2 y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2011
75,232.0
11.3
425,675.1
6.6
1,708,984.5
4.2
2,208,170.4
5.3
2012
82,131.1
9.2
441,963.6
3.8
1,798,625.7
5.2
2,379,518.7
7.8
2013
91,379.4
11.3
484,062.9
9.5
1,885,781.3
4.8
2,543,299.4
6.9
2011 7
74,069.7
10.6
418,973.1
3.8
1,705,451.5
3.2
2,208,624.3
4.6
8
75,642.3
12.4
422,649.3
5.4
1,719,437.8
4.0
2,230,191.9
5.5
77,942.2
10.9
425,196.4
5.1
1,729,531.1
4.2
2,243,675.6
5.7
76,944.6
10.1
421,480.1
4.1
1,742,645.4
4.4
2,263,627.7
6.1
11
76,617.3
10.3
423,111.9
2.0
1,753,296.4
4.4
2,279,234.1
6.2
12
77,842.5
8.9
432,602.2
1.6
1,756,597.4
4.4
2,288,816.9
6.2
2012 1
81,635.4
11.0
439,352.9
2.3
1,757,058.7
4.8
2,292,213.5
6.5
2
81,655.3
8.3
437,193.9
1.1
1,762,988.4
5.3
2,302,065.8
7.2
3
79,068.0
8.3
440,075.4
2.1
1,773,172.9
5.7
2,341,626.9
8.8
4
80,641.8
10.2
437,445.3
2.8
1,777,114.7
5.5
2,349,723.2
8.6
5
80,547.7
9.1
438,795.3
3.5
1,784,220.5
5.5
2,357,701.0
8.4
6
81,804.0
9.5
441,611.0
4.7
1,796,981.5
5.9
2,377,071.3
8.5
7
81,555.7
10.1
441,760.6
5.4
1,807,289.2
6.0
2,393,737.7
8.4
8
82,369.1
8.9
439,573.2
4.0
1,817,134.9
5.7
2,405,239.9
7.8
9
82,958.7
6.4
440,034.3
3.5
1,819,290.1
5.2
2,415,263.5
7.6
10
85,078.6
10.6
444,477.8
5.5
1,822,420.9
4.6
2,424,000.4
7.1
11
82,956.5
8.3
445,463.9
5.3
1,830,280.3
4.4
2,440,062.8
7.1
12
85,302.7
9.6
457,778.9
5.8
1,835,556.7
4.5
2,455,962.9
7.3
2013 1
85,839.3
5.1
464,914.5
5.8
1,841,128.1
4.8
2,469,789.3
7.7
2
88,855.7
8.8
472,239.6
8.0
1,857,135.0
5.3
2,488,539.0
8.1
3
89,523.5
13.2
472,430.1
7.4
1,862,405.5
5.0
2,499,718.1
6.8
4
87,729.0
8.8
475,330.0
8.7
1,867,726.3
5.1
2,512,459.7
6.9
5
89,654.8
11.3
475,526.7
8.4
1,870,289.7
4.8
2,518,239.1
6.8
6
91,207.6
11.5
486,587.5
10.2
1,884,193.2
4.9
2,533,750.8
6.6
7
90,643.7
11.1
488,982.7
10.7
1,890,728.6
4.6
2,549,443.5
6.5
8
93,729.6
13.8
481,416.9
9.5
1,888,658.4
3.9
2,557,336.3
6.3
9
95,130.6
14.7
490,518.7
11.5
1,903,187.1
4.6
2,577,546.7
6.7
10
93,640.4
10.1
491,947.9
10.7
1,908,557.6
4.7
2,587,071.4
6.7
11
93,609.9
12.8
499,242.7
12.1
1,923,339.2
5.1
2,605,873.9
6.8
12
96,988.5
13.7
509,617.9
11.3
1,932,026.4
5.3
2,619,029.5
6.6
2014 1
98,541.6
14.8
515,742.5
10.9
1,937,045.6
5.2
2,635,100.1
6.7
71 Statistical Appendices
9 10
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 15 Exchange rates (end-period) \/US$ Period
72
\/100￥
\/Euro
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2011
1,153.3
1.3
1,485.2
6.3
1,494.1
-1.3
2012
1,071.1
-7.1
1,247.5
-16.0
1,416.3
-5.2
2013
1,055.3
-1.5
1,004.7
-19.5
1,456.3
2.8
2011 7
1,052.6
-11.3
1,353.2
-1.2
1,507.9
-2.9
8
1,071.7
-9.9
1,396.8
-0.7
1,547.3
2.7
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
9
1,179.5
3.3
1,536.6
12.7
1,601.4
2.9
10
1,104.5
-2.0
1,458.0
4.8
1,562.7
-0.4
11
1,150.3
-0.6
1,475.7
7.4
1,532.9
1.0
12
1,153.3
1.3
1,485.2
6.3
1,494.1
-1.3
2012 1
1,125.0
1.0
1,473.1
8.6
1,478.2
-2.4
2
1,126.5
-0.1
1,399.2
1.3
1,516.3
-2.1
3
1,137.8
2.8
1,380.7
3.7
1,513.4
-3.2
4
1,134.2
5.8
1,412.0
7.5
1,501.7
-5.6
5
1,177.8
9.0
1,489.1
11.5
1,456.6
-6.0
6
1,153.8
7.0
1,453.8
8.8
1,435.0
-8.0
7
1,136.2
7.9
1,453.6
7.4
1,393.1
-7.6
8
1,134.6
5.9
1,444.0
3.4
1,419.6
-8.3
9
1,118.6
-5.2
1,441.1
-6.2
1,444.3
-9.8
10
1,094.1
-0.9
1,374.5
-5.7
1,418.3
-9.2
11
1,084.7
-5.7
1,320.6
-10.5
1,407.3
-8.2
12
1,071.1
-7.1
1,247.5
-16.0
1,416.3
-5.2
2013 1
1,082.7
-3.8
1,188.5
-19.3
1,469.3
-0.6
2
1,085.4
-3.6
1,176.2
-15.9
1,425.8
-6.0
3
1,112.1
-2.3
1,180.1
-14.5
1,425.2
-5.8
4
1,108.1
-2.3
1,132.0
-19.8
1,451.3
-3.4
5
1,128.3
-4.2
1,116.6
-25.0
1,471.4
1.0
6
1,149.7
-0.4
1,167.2
-19.7
1,498.2
4.4
7
1,113.6
-2.0
1,135.4
-21.9
1,476.7
6.0
8
1,110.9
-2.1
1,129.2
-21.8
1,470.6
3.6
9
1,075.6
-3.8
1,098.7
-23.8
1,451.3
0.5
10
1,061.4
-3.0
1,077.5
-21.6
1,456.6
2.7
11
1,062.1
-2.1
1,038.2
-21.4
1,444.8
2.7
12
1,061.4
-3.0
1,077.5
-21.6
1,456.6
2.7
2014 1
1,079.2
-0.3
1,043.7
-12.2
1,473.6
0.3
2
1,067.7
-1.6
1,044.8
-11.2
1,463.6
2.7
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Hahoe masks The Hahoe mask, which is part of Korea’s rich cultural heritage, is a wooden mask used as props in traditional mask dances. Hahoe masks comes in various forms, each of which represents a certain social position or occupation. Examples include the yangbantal (nobleman),
gaksital (bride) and baekjeongtal (butcher).
Useful economy-related websites
EB 3월호 표지.indd 2
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
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ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.3 March 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol. 36 No.3 March 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation
Economic News Briefing ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
March 2014
Korea Seals FTA with Canada Public Institution Reform Plans Finalized Korea Signs Currency Swap Deal with Australia Government to Ease M&A Regulations
For free subscriptions and enquiries, please contact: Foreign Press Spokesperson’s Office Ministry of Strategy and Finance
Statistical Appendices
Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
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