ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.4 April 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol. 36 No.4 April 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
Regulatory Reform Plans 2014 Framework Plan for Tax Expenditures
Economic News Briefing
Korea Grows 3.0% in 2013 KRX Launches Gold Exchange Korea Becomes World’s Second Largest Semiconductor Maker Plans to Boost Local Economies Announced
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
For free subscriptions and enquiries, please contact: Foreign Press Spokesperson’s Office Ministry of Strategy and Finance Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro
April 2014
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
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Dongdaemun Design Plaza (DDP) The Dongdaemun Design Plaza (DDP), which is the world’s largest three-dimensional atypical building, opened to the public on March 21 in Jung-gu, Seoul. It is a multi-purpose cultural complex where various exhibitions and cultural events will take place all year long. Tour programs in English, Chinese and Japanese will be available for foreign visitors.
Useful economy-related websites
0_EB 4월 표지.indd 2
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:00
contents
02 The Green Book : Current Economic Trends 03 04 10 12 15 17 20 22 24 28
32 34
40
44
Overview 1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports 6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices 12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
47 Policy Issues 48 52
Regulatory Reform Plans 2014 Framework Plan for Tax Expenditures
53 Economic News Briefing 57 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Board Coordinators Editor
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Cho Byung-Koo (KDI), Kim Yong-Jin (MOSF) Choi Jae-Hyuk (MOSF), Lee Seong-Pyo (KDI), Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF), Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) David Friedman (MOSF)
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Th Gr e ee nB oo k Cu rre nt
2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Ec on om ic T ren ds
Overview
1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports
6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
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Current Economic Trends
OVERVIEW
The economy improved throughout January and February as employment and inflation stabilized. However, a slight setback was witnessed in February due to the absence of Lunar New Year effects and slow exports hit by a severe winter chill in the US. In February, the economy added 835,000 jobs yearon-year, up from 705,000 in the previous month. Consumer price inflation in March was 1.3 percent, up from 1.0 percent in February. Mining and manufacturing production declined 1.8 percent in February, due to poor automobiles and semiconductors. For the first two months of the year, mining and manufacturing production increased 0.43 percent from the fourth quarter of 2013. Service output fell 0.4 percent in February. The January-February average for service output was 0.44 percent higher compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. Retail sales declined 3.2 percent in February as sales of nondurable goods such as groceries and car fuel fell due to the absence of Lunar New Year effects seen in January. However, retail sales in
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January and February improved an average of 0.02 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. Facility investment declined 0.3 percent, led by transportation equipment such as automobiles and imported vessels, while the value of construction completed fell 3.6 percent in February. For the first two months of the year, facility investment and the value of construction completed each rose 5.67 percent and 3.13 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index both declined 0.1 percent in February.
3 The Green Book
k
The Green Book :
Exports rose 5.2 percent in March, as the cold spell in the US ended and days worked increased. The trade balance posted a surplus of US$4.19 billion. In March, financial markets were affected by political unrest in Ukraine and concerns over China’s economic slowdown, but later rebounded due to improving economic indicators in the US. The value of the won improved slightly. Housing prices continued to increase month-onmonth in March (up 0.2%) . Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices also
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
continued to rise (up 0.5%), due to higher demand during the spring moving season and reduced supply of Jeonse homes. The Korean economy has showed clear signs of recovery. However, recovery in the private sector including investment has yet to firmly take hold, and external uncertainties concerning unstable emerging markets and the weak yen remain.
The Korean government will closely monitor global and domestic economic situations and prepare for external shocks, while continue to work on boosting domestic demand and support the working class. The government will also focus on successfully implementing the Three Year Plan for Economic Innovation.
4 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
1. External economic situation
The global economy continues to recover, led by the US, Europe and other advanced economies. However, downside risk factors remain, such as the US Fed's wind down of its monetary stimulus, a slowdown in emerging economies, and a sales tax hike in Japan. Tensions between Russia and Western nations, as well as deflation concerns in the eurozone, also pose risks.
World GDP growth 6
(%)
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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US The US growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2013 was revised upward to 2.6 percent and private sector indicators are gradually improving, but the housing market is still in a slump.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 73.8 (Jan 2013) > 85.1 (Jul) > 77.5 (Sep) > 75.1 (Nov) >82.5 (Dec) > 81.2 (Jan 2014) > 81.6 (Feb) > 80.0 (Mar) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 58.4 (Jan 2013) > 81.0 (Jul) > 80.2 (Sep) > 72.0 (Nov) >77.5
Industrial production in February rose 0.6 percent. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which forecasts business sentiment, rose for two consecutive months in March, posting 53.7.
(Dec) > 79.4 (Jan 2014) > 78.3 (Feb) > 82.3 (Mar)
The housing market cooled in February, as existing home sales fell 0.4 percent month-on-month and new home sales also decreased 3.3 percent. Housing prices declined 0.1 percent in January.
ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.1 (Jan 2013) > 55.4 (Jul) > 56.2 (Sep) > 56.4 (Oct) > 57.3
New home sales (m-o-m, %) 15.7 (Jan 2013) > -0.4 (Mar) > -3.8 (May) > -17.1 (Jul) > 3.9
Private consumption improved 0.3 percent monthon-month in February, but the leading indicators were mixed in March as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 80.0 and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to a six-year high of 82.3.
(Sep) > -0.9 (Nov) > -1.6 (Dec) > 3.2 (Jan 2014) > -3.3 (Feb) Case-Shiller Home Price Index (q-o-q, %) 1.1 (Q1 2013) > 7.2 (Q2) > 3.1 (Q3) 0.2 (Oct 2013) > 0.0 (Nov) > -0.1 (Dec) > -0.1 (Jan 2014)
The Green Book
(Nov) > 56.5 (Dec) > 51.3 (Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb) > 53.7 (Mar)
5
US GDP growth and industrial production Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board 10
(%)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.1Q
2005.1Q
2006.1Q
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
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2007.1Q
2008.1Q
2009.1Q
2010.1Q
2011.1Q
2012.1Q
2013.1Q
Industrial production (q-o-q)
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 192,000 in March, posting a near 200,000 increase for two consecutive months. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousand) 148 (Jan 2013) > 89 (Jul) > 175 (Sep) > 274 (Nov) > 84 (Dec) > 144 (Jan 2014) > 197 (Feb) > 192 (Mar) Nonfarm payroll increase in March by industry (Out of 192,000 jobs added, thousand) 192 (private sector): 7 (mining), -1 (manufacturing), 19 (construction), 167 (service) 0 (public sector)
6
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
600
(thousand)
(%) 10
400
8
200 0
6
-200
4
-400 -600
2
-800 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Unemployment rate (right)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
2014¹ Feb
Mar
Real GDP²
1.8
2.8
0.1
1.9
1.1
2.5
4.1
2.6
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
2.5
2.2
1.7
2.0
2.3
1.8
2.0
3.3
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment
7.6
7.3
9.8
2.7
-4.6
4.7
4.8
5.7
-
-
-
- Housing construction investment
0.5
12.9
19.8
12.2
12.5
14.2
10.3
7.9
-
-
-
Industrial production
3.3
3.8
0.6
2.9
1.0
0.5
0.6
1.2
-0.1
0.6
-
Retail sales
7.5
5.3
1.5
4.4
1.3
0.5
1.2
0.7
-0.6
0.3
-
Existing home sales
2.4
9.9
3.3
8.9
1.0
2.3
5.9
-7.8
-5.1
-0.4
-
Unemployment rate³
9.0
8.1
7.8
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.6
6.7
6.7
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
3.2
2.1
1.9
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.6
1.1
-
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
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China The Chinese economy grew 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, a slight slowdown compared to the 7.8 percent growth seen in the third quarter, and major indicators such as industrial production and retail sales continued to slow down in the first two months of 2014. The manufacturing PMI recently turned positive. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 51.4 (Nov 2013) > 51.0 (Dec) > 50.5 (Jan 2014) > 50.2 (Feb) > 50.3 (Mar)
The Chinese government, which had announced a growth target of 7.5 percent for 2014 at the National People’s Congress on March 5, recently unveiled specific plans for reaching the growth target amid worsening economic data. On April 2, the government announced economic stimulus measures, such as easing the tax burden for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), boosting investment on railroads, and improving housing conditions for low-income families.
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4 Real GDP
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
2014¹ Jan Feb
9.3
7.7
7.9
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.8
7.7
-
-
-
Industrial production
13.9
10.0
10.0
9.7
9.5
9.1
10.1
10.0
9.7
-
8.6³
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
23.8
20.6
20.6
19.6
20.9
20.1
20.2
19.6
19.6
-
17.9³
Retail sales
17.1
14.3
14.9
13.1
12.4
13.0
13.3
13.5
13.6
-
11.8³
Exports
-18.1
20.7
8.3
9.5
8.6
18.9
4.2
4.0
7.5
4.3
10.6
Consumer prices²
5.4
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.8
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.0
Producer prices²
6.0
-1.7
-2.3
-1.9
-1.7
-2.7
-1.7
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
-2.0
The Green Book
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
7
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change 3. January-February aggregate Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 18
(%)
(%)
70
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10 0
4 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Japan Japan’s economic growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter of 2013, growing 0.2 percent quarter-onquarter. In February, industrial production and retail sales were weak due to a high base effect from the previous month. Retail sales had improved in January ahead of a sales tax hike (5% >8%) beginning on April 1. The consumer price index (CPI) continunued to rise in February, increasing 1.5 percent while the core CPI increased 1.3 percent.
8 (Percentage change from previous period)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 Annual Real GDP
2012¹ Annual Q4
-0.5
1.4
0.0
Annual 1.5
Q1
2013¹ Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
1.1
1.0
0.2
-
0.2
2014¹ Jan Feb -
-
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
1.3
0.6
1.1
3.8
-2.3
Retail sales
-1.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
-1.1
1.6
0.3
Exports (y-o-y)
-2.7
-2.8
-5.5
9.7
1.2
7.1
12.8
17.4
15.3
9.5
9.8
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.5
1. Preliminary Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 6
25 (%)
(%)
4
20 15 10
2
5 0
0 -5
-2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6
-25
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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Eurozone The eurozone continues on a gradual recovery path, led by Germany and other major economies, but unemployment rates remain high and deflation concerns are rising as consumer prices continued to fall. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 47.9 (Jan 2013) > 46.8 (Mar) > 48.3 (May) > 50.3 (Jul) > 51.1 (Sep) >51.3 (Oct) > 51.6 (Nov) > 52.7 (Dec) > 54.0 (Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb) > 53.0 (Mar) Unemployment rate (%) 11.9 (Jan 2013) > 12.0 (Mar) > 12.0 (May) > 12.0 (Jul) > 12.0 (Aug) > 12.0 (Sep) > 11.9 (Oct) > 11.9 (Nov) > 11.9 (Dec) > 11.9 (Jan 2014) > 11.9 (Feb)
9 (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP
1.7
Industrial production
-0.6
-0.5
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
Q3
Q4
Jan
2014¹ Feb
Mar
0.1
0.2
-
-
-
3.5
-2.5
-2.1
-0.7
0.4
0.7
0.0
0.4
-0.1
-
-
Retail sales
-0.7
-1.7
-1.3
-0.9
0.0
0.3
0.5
-0.5
1.0
0.4
-
Exports (y-o-y)
13.0
7.6
5.8
0.8
0.7
1.6
0.1
0.8
0.9
-
-
2.7
2.5
2.3
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
The Green Book
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q4
1. Preliminary Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat 3
10 (%)
(%)
2
8 6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8
-3 2004.Q1
-10 2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
2. Private consumption
Private consumption in the fourth quarter of 2013 (preliminary GDP) increased 0.9 percent compared to the previous quarter and 2.2 percent compared to a year ago.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 Annual Q3
10
Q4
Annual
Q1
2012¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Private consumption²
2.4
0.1
-0.2
1.7
0.8
0.4
0.7
0.8
1.9
-0.4
0.7
1.0
0.9
(y-o-y)
-
2.1
1.2
-
1.3
1.0
1.7
2.7
-
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 8
(%)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in February decreased 3.2 percent compared to the previous month as declines in nondurable goods (down 7.4%) offset growth in durable goods (up 0.4%) and semi-durable goods (up 2.4%). Compared to a year ago, retail sales fell 0.7 percent.
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Retail sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15 (%) 10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
2014.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
The Green Book
Retail sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
11
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Durable goods
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
(Percentage change from previous period)
Retail sales (y-o-y) - Durable goods² · Automobiles - Semi-durable goods³ - Nondurable goods4
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q3 4.5 2.4 1.4 2.7 10.3 5.3 3.2 7.0 2.4 -4.4 4.2 -0.4 -0.1 2.1 2.0 1.3
Q4 -0.1 2.5 2.1 12.0 1.1 -1.8
Annual 0.8 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.6
Q1 -1.0 0.3 -4.1 -7.2 1.4 -0.6
2013¹ Q2 Q3 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.8 -0.3 2.2 2.1 -0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5
Q4¹ 0.4 1.2 0.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.8
Dec -1.2 0.2 -2.1 -4.4 -0.7 -0.7
2014¹ Jan¹ Feb¹ 2.2 -3.2 5.5 -0.7 8.3 0.4 18.0 -2.6 -5.5 2.4 2.5 -7.4
1. Preliminary
2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.
3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc.
4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc.
Source: Statistics Korea
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The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Sales at department stores and large discount stores picked up after it slowed down in February due to the absence of Lunar New Year effects.
Retail sales are likely to improve in March, led by increased sales of food and beverages. Domestic sales of cars rose month-on-month, but fell yearon-year due to a high base effect from a year ago. In March 2013, car sales rebounded from a slump caused by the individual consumption tax cut expiration at the end of the previous year.
Domestic sales of cars (thousand) 83 (Jan 2013) > 81 (Feb) > 98 (Mar) 87 (Jan 2014) > 89 (Feb) > 99 (Mar)
(y-o-y, %)
12 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Credit card use Department store sales
Aug
Sep
2013 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb
Mar
7.6
1.0
5.1
4.2
3.6
9.1
2.5
7.0
7.0
2.8
-1.7
5.9
0.3
7.2
-1.7
0.1
Large discount store sales
-2.4
-5.2
-6.4
0.8
-6.0
18.4
-23.1
-3.8
Domestic sales of gasoline
12.3
1.3
-2.0
0.4
2.6
-2.9
2.2
-2.1
Domestic sales of cars
23.9
-14.5
-3.0
-8.5
-11.8
4.1
9.6
0.9
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for March data)
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) rose 5.6 percent quarter-on-quarter and 9.9 percent yearon-year in the fourth quarter of 2013.
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
1.5
1.0
2.7
5.6
-12.7
-3.9
1.5
10.9
Facility investment²
4.7
0.1
-3.2
-3.3
-1.5
(y-o-y)
-
-
-4.2
-4.0
-
Q4
- Machinery
4.4
0.3
-4.4
-5.3
-3.5
-2.6
4.4
6.5
3.7
- Transportation equipment
5.4
-0.4
0.1
1.8
4.0
11.3
-6.4
-6.5
3.7
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
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Facility investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 30
(%)
20 10 0 -10
13
-20 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40
The Green Book
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2013.Q1
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Transportation equipment
Machinery
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Facility investment index
3.5
(y-o-y)
-
- Machinery - Transportation equipment
2013 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
2014¹ Jan1 Feb1
-2.8
-1.3
-3.1
1.1
5.0
5.9
3.2
-4.7
-0.3
-
-
-13.1
-4.0
2.7
10.4
6.6
-1.9
12.3
4.9
-2.7
-2.6
-3.5
2.9
4.5
7.3
1.1
-8.8
3.1
-0.4
-3.0
2.3
-2.0
-4.0
6.4
2.5
8.9
7.5
-9.0
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
EB 4월호 내지.indd 13
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
The facility investment index in February declined 0.3 percent month-on-month as decreases in transportation equipment investment offset gains in machinery investment. The index rose 12.3 percent year-on-year. The facility investment outlook for March is mixed, as corporate confidence and the facility investment adjustment pressure have improved but the average manufacturing ratio has fallen. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 78 (Jul 2013) > 73 (Aug) > 77 (Sep) > 82 (Oct) > 83 (Nov) > 78 (Dec) > 79 (Jan 2014) > 81 (Feb) > 85 (Mar) > 86 (Apr)
14
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Domestic machinery orders
7.6
-13.9
6.7
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
-
2013 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4¹
Dec
2014¹ Jan¹ Feb¹
-11.4
8.8
2.2
32.4
2.4
-7.3
14.1
6.8
3.9
-6.9
27.7
-18.7
3.9
7.0
-Public
-2.6
-11.0
20.6
-47.0
94.2
-9.7
129.7
-51.4
-37.2
-27.2
-Private
8.8
-14.2
5.2
-6.1
4.0
3.8
22.1
11.6
-4.9
18.7
Machinery imports Average manufacturing operation ratio Facility investment adjustment pressure²
7.1
-3.0
6.5
-11.8
-2.1
6.8
13.2
4.9
-9.9
11.9
80.5
78.5
76.2
77.3
75.9
75.1
76.6
77.3
78.3
76.2
1.3
-0.7
-1.4
-2.6
-1.6
-1.7
0.3
0.7
-5.7
3.5
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
(trillion won)
70
(y-o-y, %)
60
9
50
8
40 30
7
20
6
10 0
5
-10
4
-20 -30
3
-40
2
-50 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
EB 4월호 내지.indd 14
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
4. Construction investment
Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2013 fell 5.2 percent quarter-onquarter, but rose 5.4 percent year-on-year. The value of construction completed (constant) in February fell 3.6 percent month-on-month as both building construction and civil engineering works declined due to a high base effect. The index increased 6.3 percent year-on-year.
15 Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
The Green Book
15
(%)
10
5
0
-5 -10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40
(y-o-y, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
Building construction
EB 4월호 내지.indd 15
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
Residential buildings
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Civil engineering works
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q3 Construction investment² (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
-3.4 -
-3.9 -
-1.7 -5.7
-1.6 -7.1
Q4
Annual
1.2
-2.4
-2.7 1.7 0.4
-6.2 -1.6 -3.6
6.7 8.8 3.7
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
6.5
4.6
0.2
-5.2
1.9 5.4 8.1
9.8 7.2 1.0
8.8 0.5 -0.1
5.4 -4.0 -6.9
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual
16
2013¹ Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014¹ Jan1 Feb1
Dec
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Construction completed (constant)
-6.4
-5.0
10.1
3.5
6.3
-0.1
-0.7
-5.0
8.3
-3.6
(y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
-6.9 -5.6
-6.6 -3.0
14.8 4.3
4.4 5.6 1.0
15.0 7.7 4.6
10.5 0.4 -0.9
9.7 2.9 -5.5
3.3 -5.3 -4.5
12.8 10.8 4.6
6.3 -2.1 -5.9
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment in March will be affected by both positive factors, such as a decline in unsold new homes, a rise in new apartment sales and increased SOC expenditures, and negative factors, such as high rainfall. Unsold houses (thousand, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 67 (May 2013) > 65 (Jun) > 68 (Jul) > 68 (Aug) > 66 (Sep) > 64 (Oct) > 64 (Nov) > 61 (Dec) > 59 (Jan 2014) > 52 (Feb) New apartment sales (thousand, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 29 (May 2013) > 40 (Jun) > 14 (Jul) > 28 (Aug) > 24 (Sep) > 50 (Oct) > 44 (Nov) > 12 (Dec) > 6 (Jan 2014) > 11 (Feb) > 25 (Mar)
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 290
(y-o-y, %)
240 190 140 90 40 -10 -60 -110 2004.1
2005.1
Construction orders
EB 4월호 내지.indd 16
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Building permit area
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
Q1
Q2
2013 Q3
Q4
Dec
2014¹ Jan1 Feb1
-40.8
-29.5
-10.6
22.4
29.9
49.5
17.6
0.3 -29.6 -29.4
16.8 -10.8 -10.0
2.8 17.9 33.4
0.8 31.5 26.7
4.2 70.5 26.9
10.0 -4.3 67.7
-14.6
-3.4
-0.2
-18.5
-16.4
66.1
6.1 -
-6.2 -
-15.3 -
14.0 -6.0
-4.7 -9.1
-13.4 -19.2
-2.2 -34.0 -50.4
9.9
-0.5
-7.3
-12.4
1. Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
17
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)
Exports in March increased 5.2 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$49.76 billion.
32.1 (mobile phones), 18.7 (vessels), 15.9 (automobiles), 14.0 (semiconductors), 6.7 (steel), -3.5 (petroleum products)
Exports continued to grow with most trading partners, as the number of days worked increased compared to the previous year (up 0.5 days), and the severe winter cold in the US ended. The cold spell had hampered exports to the US in February.
The Green Book
5. Exports and Imports
Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 17.0 (US), 15.2 (EU), 13.9 (ASEAN countries), 4.5 (China), 1.1 (Japan)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was up 2.9 percent year-on-year, posting US$2.16 billion in March.
Shipments of mobile phones and semiconductors, and exports to the EU and the ASEAN countries continued to grow. Shipments of vessels and steel turned positive, as well as exports to the US and Japan.
Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 7.2 (Oct 2013) > 2.3 (Nov) > -0.1 (Dec) > 8.9 (Jan 2014) > -3.2 (Feb) > 2.9 (Mar)
(US$ billion)
2013 Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
Annual
Mar
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
2014 Feb Mar1
559.63
47.31
135.32
141.16
136.79
146.37
45.60
42.98
49.76
Q11 138.34
2.1
0.0
0.3
0.7
2.8
4.7
-0.2
1.5
5.2
2.2
2.05
2.10
2.02
2.06
2.00
2.11
2.07
2.00
2.16
2.08
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
EB 4월호 내지.indd 17
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Exports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 160
(y-o-y, %)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
18
-20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Export growth rate
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Semiconductors
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Automobiles
2014.1
Steel
Imports in March rose 3.6 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$45.57 billion. Despite a surge in consumer goods imports, import growth somewhat deccelerated due to capital goods imports growing a slower pace. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) 1.0 (commodities), 15.9 (consumer goods), 4.8 (capital goods)
Imports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 100
(y-o-y, %)
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Import growth rate
EB 4월호 내지.indd 18
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Commodities
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital goods
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
(US$ billion)
2013 Q1 Q2
Annual
Mar
515.56
43.98
129.73
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
-2.4
Average daily imports
1.89
1.95
Imports
2014 Mar1
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Q11
126.76
126.03
133.06
44.82
42.04
45.57
132.43
-2.9
-2.8
0.3
2.5
-1.0
3.9
3.6
2.1
1.94
1.85
1.84
1.91
2.04
1.96
1.98
1.99
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
19 The Green Book
Exports and imports Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 60
(US$ billion)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Trade balance
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Exports
Imports
The trade balance (preliminary) in March remained in the black for the 26th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US$4.19 billion. (US$ billion)
Trade balance
Annual
Mar
44.07
1.87
2013 Q1 5.58
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar1
Q11
14.32
10.86
13.30
0.76
0.93
4.19
5.90
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
EB 4월호 내지.indd 19
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production fell 1.8 percent month-on-month in February, as declines in mining and manufacturing offset gains in utilities. Compared to the same period in the previous year, the index was up 4.3 percent.
20
Compared to the previous month, production of electrical equipment (up 5.8%) and clothing & fur (up
14.9%) rose, while automobiles (down 7.2%) and semiconductors & parts (down 4.9%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of automobiles (up 11.3%) and primary metals (up 12.5%) rose, while other transportation equipment (down 7.7%) and refined petroleum (down 6.7%) declined.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 40
(%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 1.8 percentage points month-on-month as inventories rose 0.6 percent and shipments declined 0.8 percent. Inventories of primary metals (up 3.2%), automobiles (up 4.0%) and mechanical equipment (up 3.1%) rose month-on-month, while semiconductors & parts
EB 4월호 내지.indd 20
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
(down 6.6%) , chemical products (down 2.8%) and nonmetallic minerals (down 3.3%) declined. Shipments of other transportation equipment (up 7.1%) , semiconductors & parts (up 1.7%) and clothing & fur (up 14.5%) climbed, while automobiles (down 5.4%) , processed metals (down 5.9%) and nonmetallic minerals (down 11.5%) declined.
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Shipment and inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 10 8
(m-o-m, %)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
21
-8 -10 -12 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Inventory growth
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 76.2 percent.
The Green Book
Shipment growth
2014.1
Mining and manufacturing production is expected to improve in March, led by increasing exports, the release of new car models, and a low base effect from the previous month.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual¹
Q1
1.9
2.1
-0.1
-
(y-o-y)
1.3
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.2
1.7
2.4
-4.3
4.3
Manufacturing production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
-0.4
-1.0
0.0
2.1
2.2
0.0
-1.9
1.4
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.1
1.8
2.6
-4.5
4.5
1.4
0.4
-0.3
-0.6
-0.1
1.7
1.4
-1.0
-0.8
-0.7
-1.4
-1.7
-1.1
1.6
1.7
2.1
-1.5
-1.1
4.2
2.3
1.6
-0.2
-2.0
1.6
0.6
-1.3
-1.2
- Exports
0.1
Dec¹
-
- Domestic demand
-0.9
2014¹ Jan¹ Feb¹
Q4¹
Mining production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity²
-0.5
2013¹ Q2 Q3
-1.8
Inventory³
4.3
5.0
-0.6
-2.1
5.7
2.4
0.8
-0.8
0.6
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity4
78.5
76.2
77.3
75.9
75.1
76.6
77.2
78.3
76.2
2.1
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.2
1.0
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
4. Percentage change from same period in previous year
Source: Statistics Korea
EB 4월호 내지.indd 21
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 90
(%)
80
70
22
60 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
7. Service sector activity
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Wholesale & retail declined 1.2 percent from the previous month, as sales at department stores and large discount stores decreased after the Lunar New Year effects faded. Hotels & restaurants fell 4.7 percent.
Service output in February declined 0.4 percent month-on-month, as poor wholesale & retail and hotels & restaurants offset growth in real estate & renting. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 1.3 percent.
Transportation services (up 1.0%) and financial & insurance services (up 1.5%) continued to grow in February, while real estate & renting rebounded (up 3.1%) .
Service sector activity Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15
(%)
10 5 0 -5
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
EB 4월호 내지.indd 22
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
In March, wholesale & retail and financial & insurance services are likely to improve, due to increasing stock transactions and rebounding sales in department stores and large discount stores. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 5.1 (Nov 2013) > 4.6 (Dec) > 5.5 (Jan 2014) > 5.4 (Feb) > 5.6 (Mar)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Weight Service activity index
100.0
- Wholesale & retail
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 3.2
1.6
0.1
1.4
0.2
0.3 -0.2 -0.8
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4
0.4
0.9 -0.1
0.2
2014¹ Dec Jan1 Feb1 0.7 -0.4
3.8
0.8
0.1 -0.1
0.6 -1.5
1.5 -1.2
8.5
4.5
1.2 -0.1
1.1
0.7
0.1 -1.0
0.6
2.4
1.3 -1.4
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2
-1.3
-1.2 -2.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
2.7 -0.9 -3.1
4.5 -4.7
0.6 -1.0
- Publishing & communications services
8.4
5.1
3.0 -0.3
1.9
3.4 -0.9 -1.8
0.7
14.7
6.8
2.8
1.0
0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.5
0.6
1.0
1.6
0.4
- Real estate & renting
5.3
-8.8
-4.8
0.7
2.5 -2.2
7.4 -3.6
3.6
0.1 -7.8
3.1
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
0.5
3.7 -0.2
3.3
0.2
4.9 -2.9
0.7 -2.1
1.9
- Business services
3.3
5.2
3.5
0.2
2.2
1.6 -0.4
1.6
0.4
1.1 -0.2
- Education services
10.9
2.2
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8 -1.0
1.2
0.7 -0.6
0.4
0.9
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
6.7
6.7
0.7
5.0
0.8
1.1
2.5
1.6
0.3
0.2
1.7
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.7
2.8 -3.0 -0.5
1.7
0.6
0.2 -0.2
3.2
3.7 -8.3
- Membership organizations
3.6
1.6
-1.4
3.1 -0.7
3.5
0.2
3.5
0.3
- Sewerage & waste management
0.6
3.3
-0.6 -4.3 -0.4
0.5
0.9
1.2
5.1 -2.8 -1.9
- Financial & insurance services
0.0
5.3
0.6
0.9
0.2
1.4
23 The Green Book
21.6
- Transportation services
0.8
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
February 2014 service output by business Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 12 10
(y-o-y, %)
8 6 Transportation services
4 2
Total index
Professional, scientific & technical
Publishing & communications services Real estate & renting
Sewerage & waste management Education services
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
0 -2 -4
Wholesale & retail
Hotels & reataurants
Financial & insurance services
Business facility management & business support services
Health & social welfare services
Membership organizations, repair & other personal services
-6 -8
EB 4월호 내지.indd 23
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
8. Employment
The number of workers on payroll in February increased by 835,000 from a year earlier to 24,820,000 and the employment rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 58.6 percent.
Number of persons employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
24
1,000
(thousand)
(million)
800
26 26 25
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
600
25 24
400
24 200
23 23
0
22
-200
22
-400
21
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64 63
(%)
62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 4월호 내지.indd 24
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
By industry, employment growth expanded in services, construction and manufacturing. By status of workers, the increase in wage workers such as regular workers accelerated considerably, while
employment growth among nonwage workers such as self-employed workers continued at around the same rate as the previous month.
Employment by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100
25
80 71.0 70.8 70.3 69.7 69.2 69.1 69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2
40 7.2 20
0
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.1
7.1
7.3
7.1
7.2
7.2
6.9
6.7
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.8
6.7
16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 4.4
4.7
5.6
6.5
7.0
7.0
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.5
4.9
4.6
5.6
6.3
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.9
6.2
4.7
2012
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 2013 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 2014 2
Services
4.3
Construction
Manufacturing
4.4
The Green Book
60
4.5
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.5
80
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.3
5.2
4.5
4.2
4.2
4.7
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.1
4.3
4.2
4.3
23.1 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 6.5
60
4.5
6.5
6.3
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.4
6.4
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.2
6.0
6.0
6.5
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.1
6.3
6.5
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.0
19.4 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2
40
20
45.4 45.4 44.9 44.3 44.0 44.4 44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2
0 2012.1 2
3
4
5
Unpaid family workers
EB 4월호 내지.indd 25
6
7
8
9
10
11
Self-employed workers
12 2013.1 2
3
Daily workers
4
5
6
7
8
9
Temporary workers
10
11
12 2014.1 14.2
Regular workers
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
26
Current Economic Trends
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Feb Q1 Q2 Q3 Number of employed (million) 23.83 24.24 24.68 24.99 24.80 25.07 23.98 24.18 25.33 25.41 Employment rate (%) 58.7 59.1 59.4 60.0 59.4 59.5 57.2 57.7 60.2 60.3 (Seasonally adjusted) 58.7 59.1 59.4 59.4 59.2 59.5 59.1 59.2 59.4 59.7 Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand) 323 415 437 506 342 386 201 257 324 421 (Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries) 405 440 451 504 344 394 216 266 351 402 - Manufacturing 191 63 14 85 140 79 79 119 122 26 - Construction 33 -2 22 17 -40 -19 -95 -64 -6 4 - Services 200 386 416 397 236 318 222 199 212 354 - Agriculture, forestry & fisheries -82 -25 -14 2 -2 -8 -15 -9 -27 19 - Wage workers 517 427 315 317 303 483 267 329 472 526 · Regular workers 697 575 436 485 469 615 529 554 638 632 · Temporary workers -34 -78 -2 -79 -109 -96 -151 -152 -169 -65 · Daily workers -146 -70 -120 -89 -57 -37 -110 -73 3 -42 - Non-wage workers -194 -11 121 189 39 -97 -66 -71 -148 -105 · Self-employed workers -118 1 124 143 33 -67 -15 -28 -104 -83 - Male 181 238 234 284 172 186 47 123 179 179 - Female 142 177 203 223 170 200 154 135 145 242 - 15 to 29 -43 -35 -36 -57 -80 -50 -141 -117 -88 -41 - 30 to 39 -4 -47 -31 33 -10 -21 -17 -15 8 -34 - 40 to 49 29 57 11 12 -3 22 13 12 -6 30 - 50 to 59 294 291 270 273 220 254 176 196 254 279 - 60 or more 47 149 222 245 215 181 170 181 156 187
Q4 25.35 60.0 59.9 541 556 49 -9 507 -15 604 637 2 -35 -63 -54 262 279 46 -42 53 285 200
2014 Jan Feb 24.76 24.82 58.5 58.6 60.4 60.6 705 835 658 806 90 135 18 59 546 612 47 29 675 803 660 635 -35 99 50 70 30 32 8 -12 381 453 324 382 74 148 11 -6 90 109 320 357 210 228
Source: Statistics Korea
The number of unemployed persons in February increased by 189,000 year-on-year to 1,178,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 4.5 percent. The unemployment rate in the 50s declined, but rose in all other age groups.
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 6
(%)
5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 4월호 내지.indd 26
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Feb Q1 Q2 Number of unemployed (thousand)
920
Q3
Q4
2014 Jan Feb
855
820 770 722
807 990 907 812 777 733 891 1,178 -13 -53 -40 -29
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand) - Male
31
-65
-35 -16 -18
-7
-48
-26 -16 -13
- Female
38
-17
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7
3.4
(Seasonally adjusted) -15 to 29
3.7 8.0
-9
0
-6
-6
13
7
11
44
11
-7
3
44
-9
-4
18
41
145 4.5
-7 -20
-7 -65 -33
189
3.2 3.0 2.8
3.1
4.0
3.6
3.1
3.0
2.8
3.5
3.4
3.2 3.1 3.0
3.1
3.5
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.9
7.6
7.5 6.8 7.0
8.0
9.1
8.4
7.9
7.9
7.9
8.7
10.9
3.5
3.4
3.0 2.8 2.7
3.0
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.9
2.6
2.6
3.6
2.5
2.1
2.0 2.0 1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.7
2.0
2.4
- 50 to 59 - 60 or more
2.5
2.1
2.1 2.2 1.8
1.9
2.6
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.5
2.0
2.3
2.8
2.6
2.4 1.9 1.6
1.8
4.6
3.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
4.0
6.2
Source: Statistics Korea
The economically inactive population in February was down 606,000 from a year earlier to 16,350,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 1.8 percentage points to 61.4 percent.
27 The Green Book
- 30 to 39 - 40 to 49
The number of those economically inactive due to old age (up 72,000, y-o-y) and disabilities (up 18,000, y-o-y) increased, while those due to housework (down 282,000, y-o-y) , rest (down 263,000, y-o-y) , education (down 94,000, y-o-y) and childcare (down 15,000, y-o-y) decreased.
Labor force participation rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 65
(%)
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 4월호 내지.indd 27
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q3
Q4 Annual Feb
2013 Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
2014 Jan Feb
Economically inactive population (million) 15.84 15.95 16.08 15.90 16.26 16.22 16.95 16.83 15.91 15.98 16.17 16.65 16.35 Labor force participation rate (%)
61.0
61.1
61.3 61.8 61.1
61.5 59.6 59.9 62.2 62.1 61.7 60.6 61.4
(seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousand)
61.0
61.1
61.3 61.4 61.1
61.5 61.2 61.2 61.3 61.6 61.7 62.3 63.0
143
112
128
141 409 336 242
- Childcare
-125
-5
-2
-7
-3
201
101
123
101
126
- Housework
28
57
244
- Education
12
-51
-12
5
39
- Old age
80
-45
148
156
186
-56
182
-53 -142 -125
- Rest
0
10
-3 177 143
1
-7
36
78 9
-91 -322 -606 -14
-18
-15
-80 -112 -206 -282
77 117 118 147
88
-44
-72
-94
54 159 154
7
32
21
73
72
44
12
21 -154 -263
-7
-66 -106
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Source: Statistics Korea
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The Korean stock price index in March rose 0.3 percent to 1,986 points from 1,980 points in the previous month. The KOSPI, which had declined due to Ukranian unrest and concerns over serial bankruptcy in Chinese corporations, hit an annual high in line with strong US economic indicators and rising expectations about the global economic recovery.
Stock prices 2,200
(monthly average)
2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
KOSPI
EB 4월호 내지.indd 28
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
KOSDAQ
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
(End-period)
Feb 2014
KOSPI Mar 2014
Change1
Feb 2014
KOSDAQ Mar 2014
Change1
Stock price index (points)
1,980.0
1,985.6
5.6 (0.3%)
529.0
541.6
12.6 (2.4%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,173.5
1,182.5
9.0 (0.8%)
128.4
131.7
3.3 (2.6%)
3.7
3.7
-
1.7
1.9
0.2 (11.7%)
35.1
34.8
-0.3 (-0.9%)
10.5
10.4
-0.1 (-1.0%)
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%) 1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
29
9.2 Exchange rate
The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell from 1,049.5 won in February to 1,035.0 won in March, as the yen lost appeal as a safe-haven asset and as the current account surplus continued in Korea.
The Green Book
The dollar-won exchange rate in March fell 2.8 won to 1,064.7 won from 1,067.5 won at the end of February. The dollar-won exchange rate rose to more than 1,080 won due to political unrest in Ukraine and the US Fed’s decision to further taper its bond-buying program, but closed the month at 1,064.7 won as risk-averse sentiment eased across global financial markets and the current account surplus continued in Korea.
Foreign exchange rates 1,600
(month-end, \)
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Dollar-Won
2014.1
100 Yen-Won
(End-period)
2008 Dec
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
Mar
2014 Change¹
Dollar-Won
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,064.7
-0.9
100 Yen-Won
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
1,035.0
-3.2
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
EB 4월호 내지.indd 29
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Daily foreign exchange rate trend 1,800
(\)
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 2009.1
30
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dollar-Won
100 Yen-Won
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields rose 2 basis points to 2.87 percent in March from 2.85 percent in February. Treasury bond yields inched up, as international yields rose after US Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated at the March 18-19 FOMC meeting that interest rates could be raised earlier than expected.
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea 9
(monthly average, yearly, %)
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2013.1
2014.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(End-period, %)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
Jun
2013 Sep
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb Mar
Change1
Call rate (1 day)
2.01
2.51
3.29
2.77
2.50
2.50
2.52
2.51
2.49
2.49
-
CD (91 days)
2.88
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.69
2.66
2.66
2.65
2.65
2.65
-
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.44
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.88
2.82
2.86
2.88
2.85
2.87
-2
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.56
4.27
4.21
3.29
3.31
3.24
3.29
3.30
3.28
3.30
-2
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.98
4.08
3.46
2.97
3.14
3.05
3.23
3.22
3.13
3.16
-3
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
EB 4월호 내지.indd 30
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in January rose 5.2 percent from a year earlier. Although private sector credit improved compared to the end of 2013, M2 growth slightly contracted due to poor public expenditures in early 2014.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual 11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
2013 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
7.1
9.1
10.6
11.4
11.3
10.9
2014 Jan1
16.3
515.7
M2
10.3
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
5.1
4.9
4.4
5.0
5.3
5.2
1,937.0
Lf ³
7.9
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
7.5
6.8
6.5
6.7
6.6
6.7
2,635.1
1. Balance at end January 2014, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
31 The Green Book
M1²
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2004.1
2005.1
Reserve money
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
M1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Lf
Bank deposits grew significantly in February. Instant access deposits surged (-2.7 trillion won > 6.3 trillion won), led by municipal government and corporate deposits, while time deposit growth accelerated (3.7 trillion won > 5.4 trillion won) due to improving loan-to-deposit ratios and inflows of municipal government funds.
EB 4월호 내지.indd 31
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Asset management company (AMC) deposit growth slowed in February, led by money market funds (MMF) (6.0 trillion won > 4.9 trillion won), due to the absence of the seasonal effect seen in the previous
month. In January, corporations re-deposited the money they temporarily pulled in order to improve their year-end debt ratios.
(Monthly change, end-period, trillion won)
2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Feb
32
2013 Annual Feb
Jan
2014 Feb
Feb1
Bank deposits
54.8
36.9
58.9
37.0
8.9
41.0
4.4
1.3
11.7
1,189.7
AMC deposits
-27.6
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
-4.7
17.7
0.9
8.5
6.7
359.2
1. Balance at end February 2014, trillion won
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Deposits in financial institutions Source: The Bank of Korea 30
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
20 10 0 -10 -20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
10. Balance of payments
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Korea’s current account (preliminary) in February posted a surplus of US$4.52 billion, staying in the black for 25 consecutive months. The goods account surplus expanded from US$4.37 billion in January to US$5.43 billion in February, as a fall in goods imports exceeded a fall in goods exports.
EB 4월호 내지.indd 32
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The services account deficit contracted from US$1.91 billion to US$1.06 billion, led by the travel and other business accounts.
Goods exports (US$ billion) 50.60 (Jan 2014) > 48.00 (Feb) Goods imports (US$ billion) 46.20 (Jan 2014) > 42.60 (Feb)
Services account (US$ billion, January > February) -0.71 > -0.44 (manufacturing), 0.20 > 0.34 (transportation), -0.86 > -0.48 (travel), 1.03 > 1.16 (construction), -0.35 >
Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus expanded by US$2.70 billion as exports rose 1.5 percent.
-1.09 (intellectual property rights), -1.13 > -0.46 (other business)
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 30.6 (mobile phones), 14.1 (semiconductors), 6.9 (automobiles), -0.3 (steel), -9.2 (vessels) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 15.2 (ASEAN countries), 10.6 (EU), 3.8 (China), -6.7 (US), -9.6 (Japan)
Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends) 12
33 The Green Book
The primary income account surplus contracted from US$1.21 billion to US$0.37 billion due to a rise in dividend payments, while the secondary income account deficit expanded from US$0.38 billion to US$0.60 billion.
(US$ billion)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Services account
Goods account
2013.1
2014.1
Current account
(US$ billion)
Current account - Goods balance - Service balance - Primary income balance - Secondary income balance
2012 Annual Annual 50.84 79.88 49.41 80.57 -5.21 -7.93 12.12 11.42 -5.47 -4.18
Q1 10.46 12.08 -3.51 2.78 -0.89
Q2 20.80 20.00 -0.41 1.84 -0.62
2013 Q3 23.78 23.88 -2.06 3.16 -1.19
Q4 24.84 24.62 -1.94 3.64 -1.19
Feb 2.15 2.73 -1.39 1.04 -0.23
Dec 6.88 6.63 -0.41 1.37 -0.71
20141 Jan Feb 3.29 4.52 4.37 5.43 -1.91 -1.06 1.21 0.37 -0.38 -0.22
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in February posted a net outflow of US$6.92 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion) -6.02 (Sep 2013) > -9.88 (Oct) > -8.40 (Nov) > -7.75 (Dec) > -4.48 (Jan 2014) > -6.92 (Feb)
34
Direct investment switched to a net outflow of US$2.16 billion from a net inflow of US$0.53 billion due to a decrease in foreign direct investment. Net outflows of portfolio investment expanded from US$4.19 billion to US$7.39 billion as foreign
investors’ fixed-income investment switched to a net outflow. Net inflows of financial derivatives investment expanded from US$0.16 billion to US$0.22 billion, while net inflows of other investment expanded from US$1.94 billion to US$4.74 billion due to increased borrowing by financial firms. The current account in March is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by the surplus in the goods account, which resulted from a trade surplus (US$4.19 billion) .
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends) 10
(US$ billion)
5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Portfolio investment
11. Prices and international commodity prices
EB 4월호 내지.indd 34
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Financial derivatives
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital & financial account
11.1 Prices Consumer prices in March rose 0.2 percent monthon-month and 1.3 percent year-on-year. Compared to February, the pace of month-on-month rise was slower (0.3% > 0.2%), whereas the year-on-year growth was faster (1.0% > 1.3%).
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Consumer price inflation
Month-on-Month Year-on-Year
(%)
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2013 Jul Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb
Mar
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 7
35
(%)
6 5
The Green Book
4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
Consumer prices rose month-on-month, led by livestock products (up 3.3%) and personal services (up 0.3%). Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices fell 0.1 percent month-on-month, as increases in the prices of livestock products (up 3.3%), such as pork, were offset by decreases in the prices of agricultural products (down 2.1%).
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Manufactured product prices were up 0.3 percent from the previous month, with petroleum product prices inching up 0.1 percent and processed food prices rising 0.5 percent. The prices of personal services increased 0.3 percent, led by education-related services and movie tickets. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %)
Price increases by item (m-o-m, %)
childcare services (8.1), kindergarten tuition (6.0), high
pork (10.7), strawberries (-21.0), spinach (-19.0), flowers (-15.6)
school private education tuition (1.5), movie tickets (4.6)
EB 4월호 내지.indd 35
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 5
(%p)
4 3 2 1
36
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2012
2013
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured products
Housing rents
Public services
Personal services
Public utilities
Consumer prices for basic necessities stayed stable in the zero-percent range, rising 0.8 percent year-onyear and 0.2 percent month-on-month.
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products and show long-term price trends, rose 2.1 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent month-on-month.
Price increases for basic necessities (y-o-y, %)
The average expected annual inflation inched down 0.1 percentage point month-on-month to 2.8 percent, and import prices fell 4.8 percent year-on-year.
1.1 (Aug 2013) > 0.0 (Oct) > 0.5 (Dec) > 0.6 (Jan 2014) > 0.4 (Feb) > 0.8 (Mar)
Fresh food prices declined 11.3 percent year-onyear, led by vegetables (down 22.6%) . Compared to the previous month, fresh food prices fell 1.8 percent.
Expected inflation (%, over the next 12 months) 2.9 (Jul 2013) > 3.0 (Aug) > 2.9 (Sep) > 2.9 (Oct) > 2.9 (Nov) > 2.9 (Dec) > 2.9 (Jan 2014) > 2.9 (Feb) > 2.8 (Mar)
Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -4.3 (Jul 2013) > -5.3 (Aug) > -8.1 (Sep) > -7.3 (Oct) > -4.9
Fresh food price increases (y-o-y, %) 3.9 (Aug 2013) > -11.7 (Oct) > -11.1 (Dec) > -12.9 (Jan 2014)
(Nov) > -3.5 (Dec) > -3.0 (Jan 2014) > -4.8 (Feb)
> -12.4 (Feb) > -11.3 (Mar)
Core inflation and prices for basic necessities
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2013 2014 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 Consumer prices excluding food and energy 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.0 Consumer prices for basic necessities 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4
EB 4월호 내지.indd 36
2.1 1.7 0.8
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 16
(y-o-y, %)
13 10 7 4 1
37
-2 -5
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Consumer price inflation
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Core inflation
2013.1
2014.1
Producer price inflation
The Green Book
-8
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices fell slightly month-on-month in March, due to the IEA outlook for increased oil production in Iraq, rising US crude stockpiles and concerns over the Chinese economic slowdown. WTI crude prices slightly declined, reflecting concerns over a prolonged conflict in Ukraine and improving US economic data. WTI crude ($/barrel) 104.9 (Mar 3) > 102.6 (Mar 7) > 99.0 (Mar 14) > 99.7 (Mar 21) > 101.5 (Mar 28)
(US$/barrel, period average)
2011 Annual
2012 Annual Annual
Dubai crude
105.9
109.0
Brent crude
111.0 95.1
WTI crude
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb
Mar
105.3
103.5
107.1
107.9
105.6
105.5
107.5
104.0
105.0
104.4
111.7
108.7
107.7
110.8
111.6
109.3
108.0
110.7
107.7
108.9
107.7
93.8
98.0
104.7
106.7
106.2
100.5
94.0
97.9
94.9
100.7
100.5
Source: Korea PDS
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14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40
38
20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Dubai crude
2014.1
WTI
Domestic oil product prices rose slightly in March, as an increase in international oil prices in February was reflected with a time lag.
Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,880.8 (1st week Mar) > 1,881.8 (2nd week) > 1,881.5 (3rd week) > 1,880.0 (4th week) (Won/liter, period average)
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
Annual
Gasoline prices
1,929.3
1,985.8
1,925.5 1,933.1 1,947.7 1,934.6 1,907.3 1,880.0 1,881.1 1,886.4 1,880.7 1,880.8
Diesel prices
1,745.7
1,806.3
1,729.6 1,729.7 1,743.6 1,734.3 1,711.8 1,692.9 1,699.1 1,705.1 1,698.5 1,696.0
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb
Mar
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
(thousand won/B)
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
EB 4월호 내지.indd 38
160
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
International grain prices in March increased due to continued geopolitical unrest in Ukraine, a major exporter of corn and wheat, and concerns over a drought in South America and the US Midwest.
For nonferrous metals, Indonesia’s export ban and reduced exports by Russia pushed up the prices of nickel and tin, while concerns over an economic slowdown in China contributed to a fall in the prices of copper, lead and zinc. Indonesia is the world’s top tin exporter, as well as the third largest exporter of nickel and sixth largest of copper.
Ukraine’s export weighting (percentrage of world’s trading volume, 2013, %) corn (16.9), wheat (5.8)
Nonferrous metal prices in March (m-o-m, %) International grain prices in March (m-o-m, %)
nickel (10.3), tin (1.3), aluminum (0.6), copper (-6.8), lead
wheat (13.9), corn (8.5), soybean (5.2)
(-2.6), zinc (-1.0)
(Period average)
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual 2,553
3,062
3,006
2,774
May
Jun
Jul
2013 Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2014 Feb
Mar
The Green Book
Reuters index*
39
2,828 2,756 2,701 2,662 2,630 2,655 2,623 2,642 2,574 2,586 2,641
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
International commodity prices Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 4000
470 430
3000
390 350
2000
310 270
1000
230 190 150 2004.1
0 2005.1
CRB (left)
EB 4월호 내지.indd 39
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Reuters index (right)
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
Apartment sales prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.2%) grew at the same pace as the previous month. Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities rose 0.2 percent and prices in the eight provinces were up 0.2 percent.
Nationwide apartment sales prices rose 0.2 percent month-on-month in March.
40
Apartment sales prices continued to rise in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.3%) , which includes Seoul (up 0.2%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.3%).
Apartment sales price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.1), Daegu (0.5, Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.2), Gwangju (0.1)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Nationwide apartment sales prices
Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual 1.9 6.9 0.0 0.3 -1.7 0.5 -3.0 -1.1 -1.2 0.3 -2.9 -1.4 -1.0 0.3 -3.5 -1.1 -1.4 0.3 -2.3 -1.7 6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
Aug -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.0
2013 Sep Oct 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.1
0.2
Nov 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Dec 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1
Annual 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
0.2
0.3
0.6
2014 Jan Feb 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Mar 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment sales prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board (m-o-m, %) 2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
2009.1
Nationwide
EB 4월호 내지.indd 40
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Apartment rental price increase in major districts in
Nationwide apartment rental prices in March continued to rise 0.5 percent month-on-month.
Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.5), Seocho (0.4), Songpa (0.0), Seongdong (0.8), Yangcheon (0.8), Nowon (0.9)
Rental price growth decelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.7% ), but stayed steady in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area(up 0.2%).
41
Nationwide apartment rental prices
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Aug 12.3 3.5 4.7 0.4 11.0 2.1 6.2 0.7 10.8 2.1 6.6 0.8 11.1 2.4 6.7 0.9 10.6 1.8 6.4 0.7
2013 Sep Oct 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.9
Nov 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8
Dec Annual 0.4 1.6 0.6 2.3 0.5 2.0 0.5 2.1 0.5 1.8
2013 Jan Feb 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6
Mar 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6
14.5
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
4.6
3.3
0.2
0.4
0.8
0.2
The Green Book
Nationwide Seoul metropolitan area Seoul Gangnam¹ Gangbuk²
2010 Annual 7.1 6.3 6.4 7.6 5.1
(Percentage change from previous period)
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0
(m-o-m, %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0 -2.0 2009.1
Nationwide
EB 4월호 내지.indd 41
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Apartment sales transactions in February increased 33.9 percent from 58,846 transactions in the previous
month to 78,798 transactions, and were up 66.6 percent from a year earlier (47,288).
Apartment sales transactions
(Monthly average, thousand)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Nationwide
42
73
67
82
61
47
67
80
90 130
40
47
57
90
85
93
59
79
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Monthly apartment transaction volume E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport 140
(thousand)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
Nationwide
2011.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in February rose 0.14 percent month-on-month. Land price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.14%) , which includes Seoul (up 0.21%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.08%).
Land prices also continued to grow in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.14%) , led by Daegu (up 0.21%) , Sejong (up 0.38%) and Jeju (up 0.39%) . Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)
Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)
0.05 (Jul 2013) > 0.04 (Aug) > 0.06 (Sep) > 0.15 (Oct)
0.00 (Jul 2013)
> 0.15 (Nov) > 0.16 (Dec) > 0.10 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb)
>
-0.02 (Aug)
>
0.09 (Sep)
>
0.15 (Oct)
> 0.16 (Nov) > 0.15 (Dec) > 0.11 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb)
EB 4월호 내지.indd 42
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Land prices by region
Nationwide Seoul Gyeonggi Incheon
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010 2011 Annual Annual Annual Annual Q3
2012 Q4 Annual Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
-0.31 -1.00 -0.26 1.37
0.29 0.12 0.39 0.15
0.21 0.09 1.32 0.13
0.96 1.40 1.22 1.99
1.05 0.53 1.49 1.43
1.17 0.97 1.47 0.66
0.29 0.17 0.43 0.15
0.87 0.33 0.97 0.36
0.12 -0.14 0.17 -0.03
1.14 1.21 0.91 0.87
0.21 0.10 0.17 0.21
2013 Q2
Q3
0.37 0.41 0.33 0.37
0.10 0.08 0.07 0.07
2014 Q4 Annual Jan Feb 0.46 0.61 0.34 0.23
0.25 0.40 0.12 0.15
0.11 0.19 0.04 0.05
0.14 0.21 0.08 0.10
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
43 Land prices by region 18
The Green Book
Source: Korea Appraisal Board (%)
15 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
National average
Metropolitan city
There were 205,000 land lot transactions in February, up 12.2 percent from the previous month and up 44.6 percent from 142,000 a year earlier. Land transactions increasd in Seoul (up 15.5%, m-o-m) , Incheon (up 42.7%, m-o-m) , Daejeon (up 27.9%, m-o-m) , South Chungcheong Province (up
EB 4월호 내지.indd 43
City
2011 2012 2013
County
17.5%, m-o-m) and North Jeolla Province (up 23.9%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 37.5 percent of the total transactions, rose 5.8 percent month-on-month to 77,000 and 19.0 percent yearon-year from 65,000.
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
Land transaction volume Source: Korea Appraisal Board 500,000
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
44
100,000 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Seoul metropolitan area
2012.1
2009
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Land sales transactions 2008
2013.1
2010
(Land lot, thousand)
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Feb
208
203
187
208
170
Seoul
26
22
16
18
13
17
15
18
20
26
13
13
14
20
19
22
17
20
Gyeonggi
45
46
41
43
33
37
33
39
43
49
33
29
30
44
41
50
37
42
Incheon
13
10
8
10
8
8
8
9
9
11
6
6
7
10
9
9
7
10
Nationwide
187 181 206 216 246 169 153 144 208 201 236 183 205
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in February fell 1.2 percent month-onmonth but rose 1.7 percent year-on-year. Output declined in most sectors, including mining & manufacturing(down
EB 4월호 내지.indd 44
1.8%, m-o-m), services(down 0.4%, m-o-m), construction (down 3.6%, m-o-m) and public administration (down 1.6%, m-o-m).
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Industrial output Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 20
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10
45
-15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2014.1
Industrial output (y-o-y)
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index declined 0.1 point in February. Five components of the coincident composite index, including mining & manufacturing production and service activity, rose, while the value of construction completed and retail sales fell from the previous month.
Components of the coincident composite index in February (m-o-m)
The Green Book
Industrial output (m-o-m)
2013.1
mining & manufacturing production (0.1%), service activity (0.2%), domestic shipments (0.1%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.4%), imports (0.3%), value of construction completed (-0.3%), retail sales (-0.7%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
100
90 2004.1
EB 4월호 내지.indd 45
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
The Green Book :
Current Economic Trends
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.1 point. The consumer expectations index and the value of construction orders received rose month-on-month, while seven others, including international commodity prices, the KOSPI and the ratio of job openings to job seekers, declined. Components of the leading composite index in February (m-o-m) value of construction orders received (4.9%), consumer expectations index (0.2p), ratio of export to import prices (-0.2%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-1.1%p), domestic shipments of machinery (-0.4%), KOSPI (-1.2%), indicator of inventory cycle (-0.4%p), international commodity prices (-2.8%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.0%p)
46
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
110
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2013 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec1
2014.1
2014 Jan1 Feb1
Industrial output (m-o-m, %)
0.0
0.8
-0.8
1.4
-0.3
0.4
1.1
-1.2
(y-o-y, %)
1.6
3.0
-1.0
4.2
1.4
2.0
0.9
1.7
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.3
100.1
100.3
100.1
100.2
100.2
100.4
100.7
100.6
0.0
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.3
100.5
100.7
100.4
100.8
101.1
101.5
101.6
101.5
0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.1
-0.1
1. Preliminary
EB 4월호 내지.indd 46
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
47 Policy Issues
PO LIC Y ISS UE S Regulatory Reform Plans 2014 Framework Plan for Tax Expenditures
EB 4월호 내지.indd 47
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Policy Issues
Regulatory Reform Plans The Ministry of Strategy and Finance unveiled the administration’s strategies for regulatory reform at the first Ministerial Meeting on Regulatory Reform. Removing regulations that hinder businesses and discourage investment is one of the most important
48 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Reform to focus on service sector and business operation Regulatory reform will aim to boost investment and employment by supporting promising service industries and business operation. Healthcare, education, contents and other promising service industries will benefit from regulatory reform. Promoting these industries is important because they are popular among young adults but do not create enough jobs. According to a report released by the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI) on December 2012, a total of 350,000 jobs for young adults are expected to be created by 2020 by reforming
EB 4월호 내지.indd 48
issues of the Park Administration. More than 160 public and private sector experts attended the meeting, where private sector representatives identified 52 inefficient regulations that needed to be addressed.
restrictive regulations in education, medical and legal services, and the content industry. Regulations will be streamlined in order to make them more business-friendly. Strict business regulations, such as provisions regarding land-use and environmental protection, will be revised along with ambiguous regulations concerning wages and retirement. Unnecessary regulations standing in the way of staring new businesses will be removed to promote more startups. The government will develop measures to help people who are negatively affected by these reforms.
Ratio of young job seekers in promising service industries to total young job seekers
Ratio of young adults who want to start businesses in those industries to total young aspiring entrepreneurs
Ratio of employment in those industries to total employment
54.4%
40.4%
16.5%
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Regulatory reform to support promising service industries 1. Background The service sector, which accounts for 70 percent of total employment, accounts for only 58 percent of added-value created. The government will promote the growth of high added-value promising service industries, which will attract investment and create quality jobs.
49 Policy Issues
However, current service sector regulations promote competition in some areas while restricting
competition in others: distribution service industries are highly competitive because of low barriers to entry and hotels & restaurants suffer from fierce price competition, while the financial and business support service industries are uncompetitive due to high barriers to entry and medical and education services suffer from excessive rent-seeking. Regulations have to be revised to help create new markets and enter overseas markets.
Representatives from a medical solutions company are demonstrating their product at the Korea International Medical & Hospital Equipment Show on March 13.
EB 4월호 내지.indd 49
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Policy Issues
2. Strategies to promote promising service industries Medical services - Help create new markets, while maintaining social service function - Allow for-profit subsidiary establishment - Promote remote healthcare
50 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Education services - Promote markets for foreign students - Encourage famous foreign schools to establish campuses in Korea - Allow international schools to pay dividends Tourism - Revise foreign tourist-related regulations, such as regulations regarding visa issuance, accommodations, dining and shopping, to make them more foreign tourist-friendly - Designate medical resort complexes in Jeju and Yeongjong islands
Financial services - Lower barriers to entry, and ease marketing regulations by adopting a negative list approach - Reduce regulatory burdens to similar levels in other major countries - Promote intellectual property appraisal Software industry - Revise contract regulations to prioritize technology appraisals - Allow software development to be done remotely - Strengthen intellectual property rights Content industry - Streamline overlapping regulations enforced by different ministries - Discourage unfair practices in the film industry - Remove barriers to overseas market entry
Regulatory reform to improve business operations 1. Background The Park Administration sees regulation reform as a way to support businesses. The government has decided to thoroughly review current regulations and
EB 4월호 내지.indd 50
identify inefficient regulations that hamper business operations, and therefore dampen investment confidence.
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
2. Strategies to make regulations business-friendly Land-use regulations - Adopt a negative list approach for construction permits - Remove single-purpose land-use rules in industrial zones - Reduce time spent to get permits for land-use and construction by combining separate ministerial examinations into one - Reflect creative private-sector ideas in zoning
Environmental regulations - Make rigid provisions flexible while adequately managing environmental risks
Regulations to stimulate investment in startups - Streamline regulations over the entirety of the business cycle 1) Startup stage: lower barriers to entry and ease regulatory burdens 2) Growth stage: help attract quality human resources and capital, and facilitate locating companies and entering markets 3) Sales stage: promote M&As and IPOs 4) Restart stage: encourage investment in new businesses
51 Policy Issues
Employment regulations - Restructure wage systems to more correctly define regular wages, overtime rates and delayed retirement payments - Gradually phase in the flexible work hour system, beginning with large corporations and later expanding to small firms - Promote wage-peak systems and delayed retirement
- Apply emissions allowances flexibly according to best available technologies - Reward companies for voluntarily reducing emissions - Launch joint public-private council for environmental regulations
Public-private cooperation for regulatory reform The government will form joint public-private task forces to further develop promising services and stimulate investment in those services. The task forces will examine current regulations and identify inefficiencies. The Ministerial Meeting on the Economy, which is held on a weekly basis, will ensure that each ministry
EB 4월호 내지.indd 51
is cooperating with each other whenever ministerial cooperation is necessary. The Ministerial Meeting on Regulatory Reform and the Trade and Investment Promotion Meeting will regularly monitor the progress of reform, which includes checking on the status of implementation and current performance of the new regulations.
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Policy Issues
2014 Framework Plan for Tax Expenditures The 2014 Framework Plan for Tax Expenditures focuses on reforming the tax expenditure system and introducing tax expenditure performance evaluations.
52
Despite annual tax expenditures hovering around 33 trillion won, the ratio of tax reductions to total tax revenue has fallen from 14.3 percent in 2013 to 13.3 percent in 2014, thanks to tax expenditure restructuring implemented in 2013, which put a limit on tax exemptions and reductions and increased tax credits for the working class and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Tax expenditures will be tightly controlled in order to
N
finance the Three-Year Plan for Economic Innovation and the Park administration’s campaign pledges. According to the Campaign Pledge Funding Plan, total tax revenue worth 18 trillion won needs to be spent over 2013-2017, and from 2014 to 2015 tax revenue has to be increased by 3 trillion won. Against this backdrop, the framework tax expenditure plan focuses on restructuring tax expenditures, and conducting performance evaluations and preliminary analyses. Existing tax expenditures are extended only once their performance evaluations are passed, and new tax incentives are introduced according to preliminary analysis outcomes.
Major directions - Existing tax incentives will sunset as scheduled - New tax incentives will be introduced on the basis of the Paygo approach* - New tax incentives will expire in three to five years and minimum tax rates will be applied - Tax expenditures will be organized by ministry and guidelines for tax expenditures will be revised
- Performance evaluations and preliminary analyses will be introduced in 2015 - Tax expenditures will go along with budget expenditure plans * New tax expenditures will be adopted once a matching amount of existing tax expenditures have expired.
Tax expenditures by section Areas
R&D Foreign Investment
- Help attract multinational enterprises and increase employment incentives
Restructuring
- Maintain support for restructuring aimed at adapting to changes in business environment
SMEs
- Maintain tax incentives for SMEs and ventures - Increase support for corporations investing in local economies or moving operations to local areas - Increase the earned income tax credit and introduce a child tax credit - Revise the special sales tax reduction for tax free oil and farm transactions - Revise savings account tax incentives in order to benefit working classes
Local economies Working classes Farmers and fishermen Savings accounts
EB 4월호 내지.indd 52
Supports - Increase support for job-creating investments - Support female, youth and high school graduate employment - Revise R&D support
Investment and Employment
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Ec o Ne no ws mi c Br iefi ng
53 E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g
Korea grows 3.0% in 2013 Korea’s ODA growth highest among OECD DAC countries Deputy Prime Minister attends G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting KRX launches gold exchange Korea becomes world’s second largest semiconductor maker Plans to boost local economies announced
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Economic News Briefing
Korea grows 3.0% in 2013 (Preliminary)
Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0 percent in 2013 compared with 2.3% in 2012, as investment in construction, software and technology continued to grow amid strong private consumption and exports.
54
On the production side, manufacturing expanded by 3.3 percent year-on-year, led by electronic equipment, chemical products, precision instruments and transportation equipment. Services grew by 2.9 percent, led by business services. Agriculture, forestry & fisheries grew by 5.8 percent, as strong agriculture offset poor fisheries, which have been decreasing since 2010. Construction expanded by 3.6 percent, mainly due to robust growth in residential housing construction.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
On the expenditure side, private and government consumption increased by 2.0 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. Facility investment declined by 1.5 percent, while construction investment expanded by 6.7 percent. Investment in software and technology rose 7.3 percent. Exports and imports increased by 4.3 percent and 1.6 percent each. Real gross national income (GNI) in 2013 grew 4.0 percent, and per capital GNI increased to US$26,205 from US$24,696 a year earlier. Meanwhile, per capita gross disposable income rose from US$13,670 in 2012 to US$14,690 in 2013.
GDP by production and expenditure* 2012 2013¹ Annual Annual GDP Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Manufacturing Construction Services4 Private consumption Government consumption Facility investment Construction investment Intellectual property product investment Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services GNI
2.3 -0.9 2.4 -1.8 2.8 1.9 3.4 0.1 -3.9 8.6 5.1 2.4 2.7
3.0 5.8 3.3 3.6 2.9 2.0 2.7 -1.5 6.7 7.3 4.3 1.6 4.0
2013¹ (seasonally adjusted)2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0.6 -4.1 1.2 2.7 0.5 -0.1 0.5 1.5 6.5 9.4 0.2 0.6 0.5
1.0 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.7 1.6 1.0 4.6 -2.2 2.6 1.8 1.9
1.1 4.6 1.2 1.9 0.7 1.0 0.4 2.7 0.2 1.2 -1.1 -0.4 1.0
0.9 7.4 0.8 -2.4 0.8 0.6 0.9 5.6 -5.2 1.8 1.4 2.9 1.0
Q1 2.1 0.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.1 -12.7 1.9 6.6 5.6 -0.6 3.1
2013¹ (original)3 Q2 Q3 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.4 2.8 2.1 3.5 -3.9 9.8 7.3 5.9 1.4 3.9
3.4 7.4 3.8 5.3 3.1 2.1 2.8 1.5 8.8 5.3 2.6 0.6 4.2
Q4 3.7 9.9 4.5 3.4 3.4 2.2 3.3 10.9 5.4 9.7 3.2 4.9 4.7
*At 2010 chained prices 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the previous quarter 3. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year 4. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
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KRX launches gold exchange
Korea’s official development assistance (ODA) growth rate was the highest among member countries of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) from 2008 to 2012. Korea’s ODA increased on average 18.8 percent per year during those five years, greatly exceeding the 0.8 percent average growth rate posted by the 27 member countries of the DAC as many of those countries reduced their ODA contributions following the 2008 global economic crisis, while Korea steadily increased its contributions.
The Korea Exchange (KRX) Gold Market was launched on March 24, as part of the government’s efforts to encourage legitimate gold trading. Eight brokerages and 49 gold dealers are registered as members, and individual investors can participate in the market through the member brokerages. Trading may take place in grams, but actual deposits and withdrawals must be in the form of 1-kilogram gold bars. By providing a stable and efficient trading environment, the gold exchange is expected to gradually absorb most of the gold transactions that are currently taking place in the black market.
Deputy Prime Minister attends G20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting Deputy Prime Minister Hyun Oh-Seok attended the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting and the IMF/WB Spring Meeting that were held April 10-12 in Washington DC. The Deputy Prime Minister also attended the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) Meeting, and held bilateral talks with counterparts from Brazil and Mexico. During the G20 meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Hyun warned of reverse spillovers and asked for a careful and gradual exit from unconventional monetary policies. He also urged progress in reforming IMF quotas.
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55 E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g
Korea’s ODA growth highest among OECD DAC countries
Gold bars are being stored at the Korea Securities Depository vault in Ilsan, Gyeonggi Province. The Korea Exchange (KRX) launched a gold market on March 24, where 1-kilogram gold bars of 99.99 percent purity can be traded like listed stocks.
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Economic News Briefing
56 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Korea becomes world’s second largest semiconductor maker
Plans to boost local economies announced
Korea became the world’s second largest manufacturer of semiconductors in 2013, surpassing Japan for the first time thanks to strong growth in memory products and the increasing competitiveness of mobile semiconductors. Korea’s share in the global semiconductor market last year was 16.2 percent, up from 14.7 percent in 2012. By category, Korea’s share in memory products rose from 52.1 percent to 52.4 percent, while the share in system semiconductors declined from 6.1 percent to 5.8 percent. The total value of semiconductors produced increased from US$44.62 billion to US$51.52 billion. Meanwhile, the US retained the number one spot in 2013, with a market share of 52.4 percent.
The government has unveiled measures to boost local economies, aiming to create jobs and improve the quality of life at a local level. The recent measures consist of two parts: Local economy-led development strategies and customized central government support plans. In anticipation of local economies developing their own development strategies and programs, the government has prepared measures to fully support these initiatives. Towns and municipalities have proposed projects for their respective Regional Happiness Zones (specially designated areas where local residents can easily gain access to jobs as well as education, cultural and welfare services), and 56 areas have been designated. Local governments will promote specialized regional development projects in order to cultivate new growth engines in municipalities and provinces. Meanwhile, the government has developed 77 projects across three major areas to support local economy-led development. The three areas, which are based on the regional proposals the government received, include: Improving regulations to stimulate regional investment and development, developing efficient fiscal support measures to help municipalities, and promoting development of specialized zones such as ‘inno-cities’ and corporate cities.
A participant is demonstrating semiconductor testing equipment at a semiconductor convention that was held in Seoul on February 12-14.
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1. National accounts
2. Production, shipment and inventory
57 Statistical Appendices
Sta tisti App c a en l dic es 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index
6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
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Statistical A ppendic es 1 National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices) Real GDP
Period
58
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P
3.9 5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 3.0
1.4 1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 5.8
5.8 7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.3
4.4 5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2
2.0 3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 4.2
-0.1 0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 6.7
4.8 8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -1.5
2005 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.5 3.6 4.5 4.9
0.5 4.8 3.8 -3.1
3.6 4.5 7.0 8.1
2.2 4.5 5.5 5.3
0.6 1.7 2.1 3.3
-2.5 1.1 0.0 0.3
3.7 2.1 4.3 9.1
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.6 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
4.7 5.1 5.5 4.6
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.6 2.5 1.6 -3.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-4.7 -1.0 0.5 5.2
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.9 3.5 4.0 3.2
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.2 -2.4 -5.8 7.0
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.5 3.6 2.4 1.5
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.3 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0
8.2 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
-0.3 -2.2 -0.1 -0.7
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
1.2 0.1 1.8 1.9
6.2 -2.3 -1.0 -3.4
-0.2 -5.4 -2.7 -6.2
11.1 -1.8 -4.2 -4.0
2013P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7
0.4 2.9 7.4 9.9
1.8 2.8 3.8 4.5
1.0 1.6 1.5 1.6
-2.6 5.0 5.9 7.8
1.9 9.8 8.8 5.4
-12.7 -3.9 1.5 10.9
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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2 Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100) Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
106.0 107.4 107.7
6.0 1.3 0.3
105.6 107.2 107.6
5.6 1.5 0.4
119.9 125.2 131.4
15.0 4.4 5.0
103.2 104.8 106.3
3.2 1.6 1.4
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.6 107.5 104.0 109.7
9.1 6.2 5.4 3.4
103.4 106.6 103.2 109.3
10.0 5.4 4.7 2.8
104.9 109.8 112.3 119.9
7.8 11.8 11.4 15.0
99.4 103.4 103.2 106.7
2.8 2.7 4.2 3.0
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
105.7 108.9 103.9 112.5
-0.8 0.0 0.2 1.7
105.7 108.9 104.0 111.8
-0.8 0.5 0.2 1.8
123.1 119.4 125.0 131.4
4.6 4.0 9.2 5.0
102.9 106.7 105.6 109.9
0.9 1.7 0.8 2.1
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.0 106.1 111.6 106.8 110.7 109.2 106.0 100.3 104.7 108.8 112.6 110.3
-3.1 15.3 0.9 0.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.8 3.0 0.1
102.8 106.1 111.0 106.2 109.9 109.2 105.2 99.9 106.2 108.2 111.0 110.1
-2.8 13.5 0.1 -0.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 -1.4 1.9 -0.9 2.6 -0.3
119.3 117.4 117.7 116.5 118.2 114.8 115.4 119.3 114.5 116.1 121.3 125.2
14.2 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.8 4.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 0.6 3.1 4.4
100.3 99.9 105.7 102.8 105.9 105.9 104.8 103.9 105.7 104.7 105.5 112.7
0.3 6.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.5 0.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.9 96.9 109.2 109.1 110.2 107.4 107.5 103.5 100.7 112.7 111.8 113.0
8.7 -8.7 -2.2 2.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.4 3.2 -3.8 3.6 -0.7 2.4
109.5 97.8 109.8 108.8 109.8 108.1 106.6 104.4 100.9 112.0 111.3 112.1
6.5 -7.8 -1.1 2.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 4.5 -5.0 3.5 0.3 1.8
128.3 124.6 123.1 121.0 122.2 119.4 124.2 123.8 125.0 126.9 129.2 131.4
7.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.0 7.6 3.8 9.2 9.3 6.5 5.0
102.1 100.2 106.4 105.4 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.6 105.5 107.7 107.4 114.7
1.8 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1P 2P
106.1 101.1
-4.3 4.3
104.5 101.0
-4.6 3.3
133.2 131.7
3.8 5.7
104.2 101.5
2.1 1.3
59 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 3 Production capacity and operation ratio Period
60
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
104.7 106.9 108.7
4.7 2.1 1.7
100.2 97.5 94.8
0.2 -2.7 -2.8
80.5 78.5 76.2
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.5 104.5 105.0 105.6
5.7 5.1 4.3 3.5
97.8 103.5 97.7 101.9
2.2 0.8 0.1 -2.0
81.4 80.6 80.9 79.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.2 108.4 108.9 109.3
1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7
93.3 97.4 90.5 97.9
-4.3 -3.6 -2.9 -0.4
77.3 75.9 75.1 76.5
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.7 107.2 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.6
2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.9
92.5 97.2 102.9 98.9 102.6 101.4 97.2 88.3 94.1 98.1 100.7 96.1
-8.0 11.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -6.9 -3.6 -4.6 -1.7 -4.5
80.0 80.4 79.2 79.6 79.9 78.9 78.4 74.3 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.1 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.7 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.6
1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
98.5 84.5 96.8 97.4 99.0 95.9 94.3 90.4 86.7 99.2 97.9 96.7
6.5 -13.1 -5.9 -1.5 -3.5 -5.4 -3.0 2.4 -7.9 1.1 -2.8 0.6
78.8 77.1 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 74.8 76.3 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.2
2014 1P 2P
109.4 109.3
1.2 1.0
91.8 87.6
-6.8 3.7
78.3 76.2
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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4 Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100) Consumer goods sales index Period
y-o-y change (%)
Durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Semi-durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Non-durable goods y-o-y change (%)
104.5 107.0 107.9
4.5 2.4 0.8
110.6 116.2 116.6
10.6 5.3 0.3
103.7 103.8 105.9
3.7 -0.4 2.0
102.1 104.1 104.7
2.1 2.0 0.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 104.8 103.7 108.9
5.3 6.2 4.0 2.6
105.4 112.2 111.4 113.3
11.5 16.9 10.3 4.4
98.3 105.5 94.2 116.7
5.1 5.2 3.6 1.2
99.6 101.2 104.4 103.3
2.7 2.0 1.5 2.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.4 106.4 106.5 111.6
2.8 1.4 2.7 2.5
109.4 114.9 118.4 122.0
4.0 2.6 6.4 8.3
99.0 105.5 92.3 118.4
0.6 -0.5 -2.3 0.5
102.6 102.8 107.2 103.8
3.1 1.7 2.8 0.5
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.7 107.7 107.2 112.9
0.3 1.2 0.7 1.2
110.9 118.2 116.8 120.2
1.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5
101.7 107.2 95.0 119.6
2.7 1.6 2.9 1.0
101.2 103.0 108.0 106.7
-1.4 0.2 0.7 2.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.5 97.8 105.0 103.0 110.1 106.1 108.2 102.3 109.1 109.0 111.6 114.3
2.1 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.3 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.1
107.2 107.2 113.7 107.3 117.3 120.0 125.6 114.0 115.7 117.1 123.1 125.9
3.3 9.8 -0.4 1.0 4.4 2.2 7.4 4.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 10.6
104.7 91.9 100.4 104.8 111.4 100.3 97.3 82.1 97.6 114.8 118.8 121.5
-0.2 2.0 0.1 -1.3 0.8 -0.9 0.9 -5.1 -3.0 -2.0 5.1 -1.4
108.8 96.0 102.9 100.1 106.1 102.1 104.9 105.7 111.1 102.7 103.0 105.8
2.4 4.8 2.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 -0.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.0 105.3 110.8 106.9 109.2 104.6 107.7 111.2 113.1 114.5
-2.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.2 -1.3 2.0 1.3 0.2
112.2 105.9 114.7 115.0 119.5 120.2 127.4 116.3 106.8 120.4 120.2 120.0
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.0 -7.7 2.8 -2.4 -4.7
102.9 93.1 109.2 106.4 113.8 101.5 98.1 87.1 99.9 113.6 123.5 121.8
-1.7 1.3 8.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.8 6.1 2.4 -1.0 4.0 0.2
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.1 105.5 106.9 111.6 105.9 105.3 108.8
-6.5 3.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 3.1 2.2 2.8
2014 1P 2P
110.4 98.8
5.5 -0.7
116.7 116.7
4.0 10.2
100.0 90.7
-2.8 -2.6
111.9 94.0
10.0 -5.3
61 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 5 Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods
Period
62
y-o-y change (%)
Non-durable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
100.9 102.5 101.9
0.9 1.6 -0.6
100.3 102.8 103.1
0.3 2.5 0.3
101.2 102.4 101.4
1.2 1.2 -1.0
-
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
101.0 97.9 101.5 103.3
4.6 0.9 0.8 -2.2
99.5 100.7 100.9 100.1
3.8 3.1 -0.1 -5.0
101.6 96.8 101.7 104.6
4.7 0.2 1.1 -1.1
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.8 98.4 102.1 104.5
2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4
108.0 100.6 102.3 101.5
10.4 1.5 -0.2 -9.4
100.5 97.4 101.9 105.8
-1.5 -2.8 -1.9 2.3
-
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100.6 98.6 103.1 99.2 101.6 98.9 102.8 101.5 106.1 106.6 105.7 105.7
-7.0 10.9 -2.6 0.9 5.9 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 4.7 1.5
92.5 98.3 102.5 94.1 100.4 102.8 105.3 98.4 103.9 108.5 110.9 116.5
-8.3 6.0 -2.4 -3.6 1.2 -2.4 0.7 0.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 15.5
104.0 98.7 103.3 101.3 102.1 97.3 101.8 102.9 107.0 105.7 103.5 101.1
-6.6 13.1 -2.6 2.6 8.0 0.2 3.4 -1.1 4.4 -0.8 1.6 -4.1
98 102 102 106 106 101 100 101 99 100 100 99
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.4 96.7 103.2 99.1 99.3 96.7 103.2 103.7 99.3 108.7 102.8 102.0
7.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 2.2 -6.4 2.0 -2.7 -3.5
110.4 106.1 107.6 97.9 101.3 102.6 108.8 103.6 94.6 104.3 102.9 97.4
19.4 7.9 5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.3 -9.0 -3.9 -7.2 -16.4
107.5 92.6 101.3 99.6 98.5 94.1 100.8 103.7 101.3 110.6 102.7 104.0
3.4 -6.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 -5.3 4.6 -0.8 2.8
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1P 2P 3
102.0 96.6 -
-5.9 -0.1 -
99.5 106.2 -
-9.9 0.1 -
103.1 92.5 -
-4.1 -0.1 -
109 108 108
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total
Period
2011 2012 2013
Public
y-o-y change (%)
Private
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Estimated facility investment index y-o-y (2010=100)
change (%)
7.6 -13.9 6.7
2,407 2,142 2,580
-2.6 -11.0 20.5
22,741 19,506 20,524
8.8 -14.2 5.2
103.5 100.6 99.3
3.5 -2.8 -1.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,383 6,723 5,666 6,376
15.3 9.6 -0.7 6.4
358 708 310 1,031
-36.7 83.1 -18.6 -9.5
6,025 6,015 5,356 5,345
21.2 4.6 0.6 10.1
97.0 109.4 104.5 103.0
5.2 7.4 3.2 -1.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,592 5,867 5,148 6,498
-11.4 8.8 2.2 32.4
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,163 5,313 4,625 5,423
-6.1 4.0 3.8 22.1
91.2 100.6 98.8 106.4
-13.1 -4.0 2.7 10.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,933 2,541 1,836 1,845 1,830 1,716 1,835 1,509 1,693 1,511 1,656 1,743
-0.8 25.1 -23.6 -4.4 -14.4 -35.4 -9.4 -14.2 -10 -22.5 -27.8 -18.3
52 695 63 56 39 190 310 169 100 86 127 255
-22.2 829.0 -70.9 -10.3 -72.8 -62.2 135.5 105.9 3.5 -72.3 -75.8 31.2
1,881 1,846 1,773 1,789 1,791 1,526 1,525 1,339 1,593 1,425 1,529 1,488
0.0 -5.7 -18.9 -4.3 -10.2 -29.1 -19.5 -20.1 -10.7 -13.1 -13.5 -23.3
97.7 109.1 108.2 106.2 105.8 102.3 105.4 90.1 93.1 94.5 92.4 102.2
5.6 26.4 -3.5 3.0 -4.9 -10.2 -1.6 -16.5 -5.5 1.1 -10 -9.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,847 1,666 2,079 1,846 2,127 1,894 1,935 1,623 1,589 2,606 2,109 1,784
-4.4 -34.4 13.2 0 16.2 10.4 5.5 7.6 -6.1 72.4 27.4 2.4
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.4 -28.5 815.4 28.2 -51.4
1,708 1,498 1,957 1,754 1,877 1,682 1,576 1,531 1,518 1,818 1,946 1,660
-9.2 -18.8 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.4 14.3 -4.7 27.5 27.3 11.6
89.8 83.5 100.4 98.2 101.6 102.0 108.0 100.1 88.2 108.9 101.4 108.9
-8.1 -23.5 -7.2 -7.5 -4 -0.3 2.5 11.1 -5.3 15.2 9.7 6.6
2014 1P 2P
1,712 1,901
-7.3 14.1
88 123
-37.2 -27.2
1,624 1,779
-4.9 18.7
88.1 93.8
-1.9 12.3
63 Statistical Appendices
25,148 21,648 23,105
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 7 Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won) Period
64
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (Total) (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction y-o-y orders change received y-o-y (%) (Total) change (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
91,717 88,713 97,938
-0.6 -3.3 10.4
35,120 33,807 34,532
-0.1 -3.7 2.1
51,663 50,622 59,492
-2.2 -2.0 17.5
95,332 89,395 75,644
6.1 -6.2 -15.4
28,624 26,071 24,574
-2.0 -8.9 -5.7
61,839 59,811 48,888
12.3 -3.3 -18.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,277 24,057 21,423 26,960
-5.2 -0.1 -2.7 4.4
7,322 9,290 7,684 10,825
-2.1 1.8 -1.5 0.7
11,031 13,339 12,597 14,696
-7.9 -4.3 -4.3 6.9
16,335 25,319 20,444 33,233
-11.5 -0.9 5.6 25.5
4,119 6,311 6,711 11,483
-49.0 -8.4 -1.4 54.5
11,107 17,653 12,871 20,209
20.3 4.7 12.1 15.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,145 25,707 23,679 28,407
4.5 14.7 10.9 10.6
7,005 9,345 8,083 10,099
-5.9 5.1 6.4 2.3
12,375 15,377 14,674 17,066
13.6 23.6 15.8 16.8
13,425 18,143 16,454 27,621
-40.8 -29.5 -10.6 22.2
4,289 5,348 4,910 10,025
-24.1 -4.0 -9.1 6.2
8,781 12,108 11,165 16,832
-46.2 -36.6 -10.8 41.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,796 6,035 7,444 6,844 7,307 8,259 7,037 6,582 7,732 7,343 8,098 10,235
-6.3 13.2 -4.1 -4.5 -1.8 -12.6 4.2 -4.6 -0.5 -7.8 3.0 -8.1
2,123 -12.9 2,373 17.0 2,945 3.1 2,644 -3.6 2,873 3.0 3,374 -10.2 2,372 -0.3 2,322 -5.6 2,904 2.1 2,591 -10.7 3,003 -5.3 4,282 -9.9
3,373 3,405 4,115 3,903 4,106 4,431 4,281 3,943 4,452 4,452 4,773 5,387
-3.3 11.3 -8.2 -4.0 -3.4 -11.8 5.4 -3.8 0.3 -4.7 11.2 -6.0
7,468 8,488 6,714 6,428 7,310 11,993 6,823 5,390 6,181 5,800 7,239 9,556
52.0 108.1 -8.6 -4.2 2.3 4.6 32.3 -28.8 -19.9 -22.6 -19.9 -42.8
2,034 2,218 1,402 1,453 1,061 3,056 2,304 1,316 1,780 1,970 2,105 5,366
54.6 57.5 0.6 1.7 -43.9 2.2 24.2 -12.5 -46.9 -14.9 -29.5 -13.1
5,269 6,121 4,918 4,461 6,133 8,505 4,329 4,032 4,161 3,787 4,798 3,290
81.4 144.1 -13.6 -3.6 29.4 2.7 39.9 -30.3 4.2 -24.1 -18.3 -64.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,266 6,222 7,657 8,089 8,142 9,476 7,839 7,657 8,183 8,628 9,083 10,696
8.1 3.1 2.9 18.2 11.4 14.7 11.4 16.3 5.8 17.5 12.2 4.5
2,072 -2.4 2,345 -1.2 2,589 -12.1 2,839 7.4 2,805 -2.4 3,700 9.7 2,643 11.5 2,561 10.3 2,878 -0.9 2,958 14.2 3,124 4.0 4,017 -6.2
3,956 3,650 4,769 4,954 5,062 5,361 4,885 4,810 4,979 5,329 5,625 6,112
17.3 7.2 15.9 26.9 23.3 21.0 14.1 22.0 11.8 19.7 17.8 13.5
3,546 4,431 5,447 4,946 6,073 7,124 5,675 4,708 6,070 7,346 7,895 12,379
-52.5 -47.8 -18.9 -23.1 -16.9 -40.6 -16.8 -12.6 -1.8 26.7 9.1 29.5
1,289 1,287 1,713 1,558 1,559 2,231 1,412 1,493 2,004 1,500 2,648 5,877
-36.6 -42.0 22.1 7.2 47.0 -27.0 -38.7 13.5 12.6 -23.9 25.8 9.5
2,108 2,992 3,680 2,962 4,393 4,753 4,153 3,171 3,840 5,756 5,004 6,070
-60.0 -51.1 -25.2 -33.6 -28.4 -44.1 -4.1 -21.4 -7.7 52.0 4.3 84.5
2014 1P 2P
7,025 6,628
12.1 6.5
2,304 2,199
4,431 4,217
12.0 15.5
5,300 5,212
49.5 17.6
2,102 2,259
63.0 75.5
3,026 2,803
43.5 -6.3
11.2 -6.2
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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8 Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Cyclical component of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical component of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.2 101.5 101.6 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.4
100.8 100.7 100.4 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.3 98.1
103.3 103.4 104.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.5 106.9 106.8 107.2
101.1 100.9 101.0 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.5 100.5
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.2 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.5 107.5 107.9 108.0 107.8 108.1 108.8 109.5
98.5 99.2 99.2 99.4 99.1 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9 98.8 99.1 99.4
107.3 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.9 109.8 110.3 110.2 110.8 111.4
100.2 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.0
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.0
99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 99.7 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.5
111.7 112.2 112.3 112.9 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.7
100.0 100.0 99.7 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.4
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4
117.6 117.9 -
101.6 101.5 -
117.6 117.9 -
100.7 100.6 -
89.4 87.0 100.7 -
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5
65 Statistical Appendices
Leading index (2010=100)
Period
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 9 Balance of payments (I) (US$ million) Current account
Goods
2011 2012 2013
18,655.8 50,835.0 79,883.6
29,089.9 49,406.0 80,568.6
587,099.7 603,509.2 617,127.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-3,769.1 -1,921.2 11,994.5 12,351.6
2,453.6 2,520.5 11,435.4 12,680.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
558,009.8 554,103.2 536,559.0
-12,279.1 -5,213.6 -7,927.4
6,560.6 12,116.7 11,424.8
-4,715.6 -5,474.1 -4,182.3
133,839.7 150,171.3 150,723.9 152,364.8
131,386.1 147,650.8 139,288.5 139,684.4
-4,746.0 -3,468.8 -2,163.6 -1,900.7
-195.2 372.1 3,723.5 2,660.2
-1,281.5 -1,345.0 -1,000.8 -1,088.3
1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9
144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6
142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7
-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0
2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9
-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7
10,458.1 20,804.7 23,782.0 24,838.8
12,075.8 19,998.5 23,876.5 24,617.8
146,933.9 153,981.4 153,754.8 162,457.5
134,858.1 133,982.9 129,878.3 137,839.7
-3,512.2 -409.8 -2,062.7 -1,942.7
2,782.6 1,835.0 3,162.8 3,644.4
-888.1 -619.0 -1,194.6 -1,480.6
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,151.2 -2,409.5 3,814.7 87.8 5,265.5 6,251.8 8,413.0 1,808.7 6,665.1 7,494.2 8,293.6 7,301.3
-1,727.4 -863.1 4,252.0 -222.9 3,387.9 5,370.0 7,529.7 2,118.1 6,246.8 7,472.8 8,580.9 7,261.2
44,738.1 48,304.2 51,217.8 49,330.2 50,854.0 50,649.8 51,530.7 47,379.6 50,709.2 53,409.2 54,492.4 50,894.0
46,465.5 49,167.3 46,965.8 49,553.1 47,466.1 45,279.8 44,001.0 45,261.5 44,462.4 45,936.4 45,911.5 43,632.8
-1,017.2 -2,018.3 64.7 288.4 545.9 -662.3 110.0 -844.3 54.5 -415.4 -833.9 -485.7
1,243.3 873.2 -71.2 364.5 1,660.1 1,917.7 1,260.7 965.2 746.3 867.8 988.6 1,300.5
-649.9 -401.3 -430.8 -342.2 -328.4 -373.6 -487.4 -430.3 -382.5 -431.0 -442.0 -774.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,969.3 2,146.5 6,342.3 4,552.9 9,752.2 6,499.6 7,985.1 7,198.0 8,598.9 11,107.9 6,854.8 6,876.1
2,855.2 2,733.1 6,487.5 5,103.3 9,591.6 5,303.6 7,911.7 7,378.1 8,586.7 9,816.8 8,175.6 6,625.4
51,027.4 44,778.4 51,128.1 51,587.2 53,548.1 48,846.1 53,353.6 49,839.2 50,562.0 56,702.8 52,756.9 52,997.8
48,172.2 42,045.3 44,640.6 46,483.9 43,956.5 43,542.5 45,441.9 42,461.1 41,975.3 46,886.0 44,581.3 46,372.4
-1,783.5 -1,394.1 -334.6 5.7 -298.2 -117.3 -1,058.1 -805.9 -198.7 393.5 -1,923.2 -413.0
1,434.6 1,035.1 312.9 -354.1 670.3 1,518.8 1,396.1 912.4 854.3 1,260.6 1,010.9 1,372.9
-537.0 -227.6 -123.5 -202.0 -211.5 -205.5 -264.6 -286.6 -643.4 -363.0 -408.5 -709.1
2014P 1 2
3,285.3 4,524.9
4,367.0 5,429.2
50,599.8 48,025.9
46,232.8 42,596.7
-1,912.1 -1,058.7
1,211.4 371.8
-381.0 -217.4
Period
66
Exports
Imports
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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10 Balance of payments (II) (US$ million) Period
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of Reserve assets nonfinancial assets
-24,315.8 -51,582.4 -76,881.1
-19,931.7 -21,136.2 -16,951.5
13,142.7 6,747.8 -8,287.1
-1,031.3 2,627.8 3,839.7
-2,542.7 -26,637.3 -41,003.7
-112.0 -41.7 -27.8
-13,952.8 -13,184.5 -14,478.5
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3,231.1 -8.5 -11,957.3 -15,581.1
-4,872.2 -5,028.1 -4,652.9 -5,378.5
-472.1 4,043.3 8,344.5 1,227.0
922.4 -160.6 -1,535.5 -257.6
11,172.4 3,754.9 -20,439.5 2,969.5
-30.0 -9.7 -5.4 -66.9
-3,519.4 -2,618.0 6,326.1 -14,141.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2
-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9
14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1
-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,560.0 -16,194.8 -23,107.8 -26,018.5
-5,148.2 -3,297.9 -3,988.6 -4,516.8
-6,461.9 -8,919.2 8,996.0 -1,902.0
1,418.9 -604.6 1,694.0 1,331.4
2,562.0 -7,439.0 -23,231.0 -12,895.7
-3.5 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
-3,930.8 4,065.9 -6,578.2 -8,035.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,295.1 435.0 -3,704.3 1,566.7 -2,645.3 -3,200.1 -9,113.6 -3,219.3 -5,763.2 -7,172.4 -9,211.9 -8,258.9
-2,022.6 -3,631.3 -1,925.7 -1,225.9 -1,687.4 -1,144.0 -1,695.4 -1,719.8 -2,290.2 -1,001.3 -1,599.7 -1,192.9
7,904.1 6,238.0 617.5 -3,114.3 -1,893.6 -1,795.1 1,730.8 646.6 1,800.3 -4,742.4 -3,886.7 3,242.6
452.6 245.8 500.1 215.0 -480.7 -4.9 358.8 -35.5 272.0 -137.8 631.8 610.6
-5,167.1 -190.9 -1,137.1 5,832.0 147.6 201.5 -8,171.9 -1,016.0 -4,059.3 185.2 -1,759.5 -11,501.8
-9.6 -5.8 -3.8 0.3 -1.0 -6.0 -5.5 -1.9 -1.6 -4.9 0.7 -2.6
-2,462.1 -2,226.6 -1,759.1 -140.1 1,268.8 -457.6 -1,335.9 -1,094.6 -1,486.0 -1,476.1 -2,597.8 582.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3,288.5 -3,297.9 -4,973.6 -1,908.3 -9,945.6 -4,340.9 -9,155.6 -7,937.6 -6,014.6 -9,880.0 -8,399.9 -7,738.6
-1,631.9 -1,145.9 -2,370.4 -21.0 -1,659.7 -1,617.2 -1,301.4 -1,275.8 -1,411.4 -296.1 -2,303.1 -1,917.6
-5,226.0 2,023.2 -3,259.1 -1,873.5 -1,091.4 -5,954.3 1,825.5 1,435.1 5,735.4 4,467.7 -1,522.8 -4,846.9
586.9 686.9 145.1 -313.2 649.2 -940.6 443.3 218.1 1,032.6 713.1 14.0 604.3
3,380.1 -2,870.9 2,052.8 -643.1 -6,804.3 8.4 -8,131.5 -6,631.3 -8,468.2 -10,064.8 -1,742.0 -1,088.9
-8.0 -3.3 7.8 -1.4 -11.2 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
-397.6 -1,991.2 -1,542.0 942.5 -1,039.4 4,162.8 -1,991.5 -1,683.7 -2,903.0 -4,699.9 -2,846.0 -489.5
2014P 1 2
-4,477.0 -6,920.5
529.9 -2,163.5
-4,193.1 -7,394.4
155.5 223.1
1,937.4 4,739.0
-3.0 3.5
-2,906.7 -2,324.7
67 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 11 Prices (2010=100) Consumer Prices Period
All Items
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
68
Producer prices
Services
y-o-y change (%)
Core
y-o-y change (%)
All Items
y-o-y change (%)
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2011
104.0
4.0
105.7
5.7
102.7
2.7
103.2
3.2
106.7
6.7
108.7
2012
106.3
2.2
108.9
3.0
104.2
1.4
104.9
1.6
107.5
0.7
108.9
8.7 0.2
2013
107.7
1.3
110.1
1.0
105.8
1.5
106.6
1.6
105.7
-1.6
106.2
-2.5
2011 7
104.3
4.5
105.9
6.4
103.1
2.9
103.7
3.6
107.2
7.0
109.3
9.1
8
105.0
4.7
107.1
6.8
103.3
3.0
103.8
3.5
107.4
6.9
109.5
8.9
9
104.9
3.8
107.1
5.0
103.1
2.7
103.7
3.3
107.4
6.3
109.6
8.0
10
104.7
3.6
106.6
4.5
103.2
2.8
103.6
3.2
107.3
5.8
109.4
7.4
11
104.8
4.2
106.8
6.0
103.3
2.7
103.9
3.5
107.0
5.1
108.9
6.5
12
105.2
4.2
107.3
5.7
103.5
2.8
104.3
3.6
107.1
4.3
109.0
5.3
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2012 1
105.7
3.4
107.9
4.4
103.9
2.7
104.6
3.2
107.7
3.2
109.5
3.6
2
106.1
3.1
108.5
3.9
104.2
2.5
104.7
2.5
108.4
3.1
110.5
3.6
3
106.0
2.6
109.2
4.1
103.5
1.4
104.3
1.9
108.9
2.4
111.2
2.7
4
106.0
2.5
108.9
4.1
103.7
1.3
104.4
1.8
109.0
1.9
111.1
1.9
5
106.2
2.5
109.2
4.3
103.9
1.3
104.6
1.6
108.4
1.0
110.3
0.7
6
106.1
2.2
108.8
3.6
104.0
1.2
104.9
1.5
107.1
0.0
108.4
-0.7
7
105.9
1.5
107.9
1.9
104.2
1.1
104.9
1.2
106.6
-0.6
107.6
-1.5
8
106.3
1.2
108.8
1.6
104.4
1.1
105.1
1.3
107.2
-0.1
108.6
-0.9
9
107.0
2.0
110.4
3.1
104.4
1.3
105.2
1.4
107.6
0.2
109.2
-0.4
10
106.9
2.1
109.8
3.0
104.6
1.4
105.2
1.5
106.8
-0.5
107.8
-1.4
11
106.5
1.6
108.9
2.0
104.6
1.3
105.3
1.3
106.1
-0.9
106.8
-1.9
12
106.7
1.4
109.0
1.6
104.8
1.3
105.5
1.2
105.8
-1.2
106.4
-2.3
2013 1
107.3
1.6
109.9
1.7
105.3
1.5
105.9
1.3
106.0
-1.6
106.8
-2.5
2
107.7
1.6
110.4
1.6
105.6
1.5
106.2
1.4
106.7
-1.6
107.8
-2.5
3
107.6
1.5
110.4
1.1
105.4
1.7
106.0
1.6
106.3
-2.4
107.1
-3.7
4
107.5
1.3
109.9
0.9
105.6
1.7
106.0
1.6
105.9
-2.8
106.6
-4.1
5
107.5
1.1
109.6
0.4
105.7
1.8
106.4
1.7
105.6
-2.6
106.1
-3.8
6
107.3
1.2
109.4
0.7
105.7
1.6
106.6
1.6
105.5
-1.4
106.0
-2.2
7
107.6
1.6
109.7
1.7
105.9
1.5
106.7
1.7
105.5
-1.0
106.0
-1.6
8
107.9
1.5
110.3
1.5
106.1
1.5
106.7
1.5
105.8
-1.3
106.2
-2.1
9
108.1
1.0
110.9
0.4
106.0
1.5
107.0
1.7
105.7
-1.8
106.1
-2.8
10
107.8
0.9
110.1
0.3
106.0
1.4
107.1
1.8
105.3
-1.4
105.5
-2.2
11
107.8
1.2
110.1
1.0
106.0
1.3
107.4
2.0
105.1
-0.9
105.2
-1.5
12
107.8
1.2
110.1
1.0
106.0
1.3
107.4
2.0
105.1
-0.9
105.2
-1.5
2014 1
107.3
1.6
109.9
1.7
105.3
1.5
105.9
1.3
106.0
-1.6
106.8
-2.5
2
108.8
1.0
111.4
0.9
106.7
1.1
108.0
1.7
105.7
-0.9
105.7
-1.9
Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 4월호 내지.indd 68
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
12 Employment
Period
Economically active persons (thousand)
Employed persons (thousand) All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Manufacturing
y-o-y change (%)
SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment (%)
25,099
1.4
24,244
1.7
4,091
1.6
18,595
2.1
3.4
2012
25,501
1.6
24,681
1.8
4,105
0.3
19,033
2.4
3.2
2013
25,873
1.5
25,066
1.6
4,184
1.9
19,347
1.6
3.1
2011 7
25,473
1.0
24,636
1.4
4,079
1.0
18,844
1.9
3.3
8
25,257
1.7
24,495
2.0
4,031
-0.7
18,739
3.1
3.0
9
25,076
0.7
24,318
1.1
4,014
-1.2
18,595
2.1
3.0
10
25,409
1.6
24,673
2.1
4,044
-1.3
18,856
3.2
2.9
11
25,318
1.9
24,589
2.0
4,054
-2.1
18,921
3.2
2.9
12
24,880
1.4
24,125
1.9
4,071
-2.1
18,833
3.1
3.0
2012 1
24,585
2.0
23,732
2.3
4,034
-2.8
18,631
3.5
3.5
2
24,825
1.6
23,783
1.9
4,060
-2.1
18,599
3.2
4.2
3
25,210
1.2
24,265
1.8
4,018
-2.5
18,870
3.4
3.7
4
25,653
1.6
24,758
1.9
4,027
-2.0
19,103
3.1
3.5
5
25,939
1.8
25,133
1.9
4,071
-1.6
19,292
3.0
3.1
6
25,939
1.4
25,117
1.5
4,084
-1.2
19,248
2.3
3.2
7
25,901
1.7
25,106
1.9
4,114
0.8
19,265
2.2
3.1
8
25,623
1.4
24,859
1.5
4,111
2.0
19,040
1.6
3.0
9
25,755
2.7
25,003
2.8
4,153
3.5
19,125
2.8
2.9
10
25,787
1.5
25,069
1.6
4,188
3.6
19,128
1.4
2.8
11
25,652
1.3
24,941
1.4
4,218
4.0
19,088
0.9
2.8
12
25,139
1.0
24,402
1.1
4,183
2.8
19,010
0.9
2.9
2013 1
24,901
1.3
24,054
1.4
4,189
3.9
18,810
1.0
3.4
2
24,973
0.6
23,984
0.8
4,139
1.9
18,736
0.7
4.0
3
25,397
0.7
24,514
1.0
4,141
3.1
18,989
0.6
3.5
4
25,928
1.1
25,103
1.4
4,192
4.1
19,303
1.0
3.2
5
26,195
1.0
25,398
1.1
4,175
2.6
19,492
1.0
3.0
6
26,291
1.4
25,478
1.4
4,180
2.3
19,531
1.5
3.1
7
26,301
1.5
25,473
1.5
4,167
1.3
19,577
1.6
3.1
8
26,074
1.7
25,291
1.7
4,116
0.1
19,438
2.1
3.0
9
26,186
1.7
25,466
1.9
4,174
0.5
19,540
2.2
2.7
10
26,268
1.9
25,545
1.9
4,218
0.7
19,558
2.2
2.8
11
26,230
2.3
25,530
2.4
4,253
0.8
19,670
3.0
2.7
12
25,736
2.4
24,962
2.3
4,264
2.0
19,514
2.7
3.0
2014 1
25,650
3.0
24,759
2.9
4,280
2.2
19,376
3.0
3.5
2
24,973
0.6
23,984
0.8
4,139
1.9
18,736
0.7
4.0
3
26,187
3.1
25,163
2.6
4,284
3.5
19,538
2.9
3.9
69 Statistical Appendices
2011
Source: Statistics Korea
EB 4월호 내지.indd 69
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Statistical A ppendic es 13 Financial indicators (period average) Period
70
Yields(%)
Stock
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI(end-period)
2010 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,044.87
2014 1 2 3
2.5 2.8 2.5
2.7 2.8 2.7
3.3 3.1 3.3
2.9 2.7 2.9
3.3 2.8 3.2
1,941.15 2,026.49 1,985.61
Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 4월호 내지.indd 70
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
14 Monetary indicators (billion won) Period
Reserve money
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2 y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2011
75,232.0
11.3
425,675.1
6.6
1,708,984.5
4.2
2,208,170.4
5.3
2012
82,131.1
9.2
441,963.6
3.8
1,798,625.7
5.2
2,379,518.7
7.8
2013
91,379.4
11.3
484,062.9
9.5
1,885,781.3
4.8
2,543,299.4
6.9
2011 7
74,069.7
10.6
418,973.1
3.8
1,705,451.5
3.2
2,208,624.3
4.6
8
75,642.3
12.4
422,649.3
5.4
1,719,437.8
4.0
2,230,191.9
5.5
9
77,942.2
10.9
425,196.4
5.1
1,729,531.1
4.2
2,243,675.6
5.7
10
76,944.6
10.1
421,480.1
4.1
1,742,645.4
4.4
2,263,627.7
6.1
11
76,617.3
10.3
423,111.9
2.0
1,753,296.4
4.4
2,279,234.1
6.2
12
77,842.5
8.9
432,602.2
1.6
1,756,597.4
4.4
2,288,816.9
6.2
2012 1
81,635.4
11.0
439,352.9
2.3
1,757,058.7
4.8
2,292,213.5
6.5
81,655.3
8.3
437,193.9
1.1
1,762,988.4
5.3
2,302,065.8
7.2
79,068.0
8.3
440,075.4
2.1
1,773,172.9
5.7
2,341,626.9
8.8
4
80,641.8
10.2
437,445.3
2.8
1,777,114.7
5.5
2,349,723.2
8.6
5
80,547.7
9.1
438,795.3
3.5
1,784,220.5
5.5
2,357,701.0
8.4
6
81,804.0
9.5
441,611.0
4.7
1,796,981.5
5.9
2,377,071.3
8.5
7
81,555.7
10.1
441,760.6
5.4
1,807,289.2
6.0
2,393,737.7
8.4
8
82,369.1
8.9
439,573.2
4.0
1,817,134.9
5.7
2,405,239.9
7.8
9
82,958.7
6.4
440,034.3
3.5
1,819,290.1
5.2
2,415,263.5
7.6
10
85,078.6
10.6
444,477.8
5.5
1,822,420.9
4.6
2,424,000.4
7.1
11
82,956.5
8.3
445,463.9
5.3
1,830,280.3
4.4
2,440,062.8
7.1
12
85,302.7
9.6
457,778.9
5.8
1,835,556.7
4.5
2,455,962.9
7.3
2013 1
85,839.3
5.1
464,914.5
5.8
1,841,128.1
4.8
2,469,789.3
7.7
2
88,855.7
8.8
472,239.6
8.0
1,857,135.0
5.3
2,488,539.0
8.1
3
89,523.5
13.2
472,430.1
7.4
1,862,405.5
5.0
2,499,718.1
6.8
4
87,729.0
8.8
475,330.0
8.7
1,867,726.3
5.1
2,512,459.7
6.9
5
89,654.8
11.3
475,526.7
8.4
1,870,289.7
4.8
2,518,239.1
6.8
6
91,207.6
11.5
486,587.5
10.2
1,884,193.2
4.9
2,533,750.8
6.6
7
90,643.7
11.1
488,982.7
10.7
1,890,728.6
4.6
2,549,443.5
6.5
8
93,729.6
13.8
481,416.9
9.5
1,888,658.4
3.9
2,557,336.3
6.3
9
95,130.6
14.7
490,518.7
11.5
1,903,187.1
4.6
2,577,546.7
6.7
10
93,640.4
10.1
491,947.9
10.7
1,908,557.6
4.7
2,587,071.4
6.7
11
93,609.9
12.8
499,242.7
12.1
1,923,339.2
5.1
2,605,873.9
6.8
12
96,988.5
13.7
509,617.9
11.3
1,932,026.4
5.3
2,619,029.5
6.6
2013 1
85,839.3
5.1
464,914.5
5.8
1,841,128.1
4.8
2,469,789.3
7.7
2
100,547.9
13.2
518,475.5
9.8
1,954,340.7
5.2
2,647,674.0
6.4
Statistical Appendices
2 3
71
Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 4월호 내지.indd 71
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:27
Statistical A ppendic es 15 Exchange rates (end-period) \/US$ Period
72
Won
\/100￥ y-o-y change (%)
Won
\/Euro
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011
1,153.3
1.3
1,485.2
6.3
1,494.1
-1.3
2012
1,071.1
-7.1
1,247.5
-16.0
1,416.3
-5.2
2013
1,055.3
-1.5
1,004.7
-19.5
1,456.3
2.8
2011 7
1,052.6
-11.3
1,353.2
-1.2
1,507.9
-2.9
8
1,071.7
-9.9
1,396.8
-0.7
1,547.3
2.7
9
1,179.5
3.3
1,536.6
12.7
1,601.4
2.9
10
1,104.5
-2.0
1,458.0
4.8
1,562.7
-0.4
11
1,150.3
-0.6
1,475.7
7.4
1,532.9
1.0
12
1,153.3
1.3
1,485.2
6.3
1,494.1
-1.3
2012 1
1,125.0
1.0
1,473.1
8.6
1,478.2
-2.4
2
1,126.5
-0.1
1,399.2
1.3
1,516.3
-2.1
3
1,137.8
2.8
1,380.7
3.7
1,513.4
-3.2
4
1,134.2
5.8
1,412.0
7.5
1,501.7
-5.6
5
1,177.8
9.0
1,489.1
11.5
1,456.6
-6.0
6
1,153.8
7.0
1,453.8
8.8
1,435.0
-8.0
7
1,136.2
7.9
1,453.6
7.4
1,393.1
-7.6
8
1,134.6
5.9
1,444.0
3.4
1,419.6
-8.3
9
1,118.6
-5.2
1,441.1
-6.2
1,444.3
-9.8
10
1,094.1
-0.9
1,374.5
-5.7
1,418.3
-9.2
11
1,084.7
-5.7
1,320.6
-10.5
1,407.3
-8.2
12
1,071.1
-7.1
1,247.5
-16.0
1,416.3
-5.2
2013 1
1,082.7
-3.8
1,188.5
-19.3
1,469.3
-0.6
2
1,085.4
-3.6
1,176.2
-15.9
1,425.8
-6.0
3
1,112.1
-2.3
1,180.1
-14.5
1,425.2
-5.8
4
1,108.1
-2.3
1,132.0
-19.8
1,451.3
-3.4
5
1,128.3
-4.2
1,116.6
-25.0
1,471.4
1.0
6
1,149.7
-0.4
1,167.2
-19.7
1,498.2
4.4
7
1,113.6
-2.0
1,135.4
-21.9
1,476.7
6.0
8
1,110.9
-2.1
1,129.2
-21.8
1,470.6
3.6
9
1,075.6
-3.8
1,098.7
-23.8
1,451.3
0.5
10
1,061.4
-3.0
1,077.5
-21.6
1,456.6
2.7
11
1,062.1
-2.1
1,038.2
-21.4
1,444.8
2.7
12
1,061.4
-3.0
1,077.5
-21.6
1,456.6
2.7
2014 1
1,079.2
-0.3
1,043.7
-12.2
1,473.6
0.3
2
1,085.4
-3.6
1,176.2
-15.9
1,425.8
-6.0
3
1,068.8
-3.9
1,038.7
-12.0
1,469.4
3.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Dongdaemun Design Plaza (DDP) The Dongdaemun Design Plaza (DDP), which is the world’s largest three-dimensional atypical building, opened to the public on March 21 in Jung-gu, Seoul. It is a multi-purpose cultural complex where various exhibitions and cultural events will take place all year long. Tour programs in English, Chinese and Japanese will be available for foreign visitors.
Useful economy-related websites
0_EB 4월 표지.indd 2
Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
14. 4. 21. 오후 9:00
ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.4 April 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol. 36 No.4 April 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
Regulatory Reform Plans 2014 Framework Plan for Tax Expenditures
Economic News Briefing
Korea Grows 3.0% in 2013 KRX Launches Gold Exchange Korea Becomes World’s Second Largest Semiconductor Maker Plans to Boost Local Economies Announced
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
For free subscriptions and enquiries, please contact: Foreign Press Spokesperson’s Office Ministry of Strategy and Finance Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro
April 2014
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
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14. 4. 21. 오후 8:59