Economicbulletin05 en 0601

ISSN 2287-7266

ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

Republic of Korea

Vol.37 No.5 May 2015

conomic u l l e t i n

Vol.37 No.5 May 2015

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan

Economic News Briefing Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1

Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN

(Republic of Korea)

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May 2015

Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 263 Namsejong-ro Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr

MOSF / KDI

Tel. +82 44 550 4645

02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview

03

01. External economic situation

04

02. Private consumption

08

03. Facility investment

10

04. Construction investment

12

05. Exports and imports

14

06. Mining and manufacturing production

17

07. Service sector activity

19

08. Employment

21

09. Financial markets

25

9.1 Stock market

25

9.2 Exchange rate

25

9.3 Bond market

26

9.4 Money supply & money market

27

10. Balance of payments

28

11. Prices

31

11.1 Consumer prices

31

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

33

12. Real estate market

35

12.2 Land market

37

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

contents Editor in Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) An Il-Whan (MOSF) Editorial Board Park Joon-Kyu (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF)

35

12.1 Housing market

39

Vol.37 No.5 / May 2015

41 Policy Issue Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan

44 Economic News Briefing Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased President Park Geun-hye Visits Latin America FDI Declines 29.8% in Q1 Korean FDI Grows 5.2% in Q1 190 Billion Won Digital Content Fund to be Created 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Signs FTA with Vietnam ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1

49 Statistical Appendices

02

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Overview

01. External economic situation

02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

03

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

OVERVIEW The economy continues to recover from a setback in the fourth quarter of last year, despite some real economic indicators fluctuating somewhat, including production, consumption and construction investment. Employment growth is slowing down and inflation remains low due to low international oil prices.

indices will likely improve given a large increase in machinery and construction orders.

The economy continued to add jobs in March but at a slower rate due to a high base effect (649,000 jobs added in March 2014). Permanent jobs led the increase and a total of 338,000 jobs were added yearon-year compared with 376,000 jobs a month ago.

Exports continued to decrease year-on-year in April, falling 8.1 percent from a year ago, as low international oil prices pushed down prices. The trade balance posted a surplus of US $8.49 billion.

Consumer price inflation remained low in April, rising 0.4 percent year-on-year, due to low petroleum prices and a stable supply of agricultural products, while core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products and is more related to demand, rose 2.0 percent, staying in the two percent range.

Mining and manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in March after a 2.3 percent increase in the previous month, but the index decreased at a slower rate quarter-on-quarter, falling 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2015 compared with a 0.9 percent decline in the previous quarter.

Service output and retail sales decreased in March following an increase in the previous month when the Lunar New Year pushed up demand, falling 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. However, both indices improved quarter-on-quarter, each increasing 0.5 percent in the first quarter.

Facility investment in March fell 3.9 percent from a 3.4 percent rise in the previous month due to weak transportation equipment investment, while construction completed dropped 6.8 percent after a 4.8 percent surge as both building construction and civil engineering works declined. However, the two

The composite index of coincident indicators fell 0.2 points from the previous month in March, and the composite index of leading indicators increased 0.7 points, rising for four months in a row.

In April, the KOSPI went up due to increased foreign capital inflows, while market interest rates rose. The Korean won appreciated against the US dollar and the Japanese yen compared to the previous month.

Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase in April, rising 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, while housing sales surged year-onyear by 29.2 percent to 120,000 transactions.

Although uncertainties remain as the Japanese yen continues to be weak and the global economic recovery has yet to fully take root, the economy is likely to be positively influenced by low international oil prices and asset market recoveries, including housing and stock markets, which in turn lead to strong consumer and investor sentiment.

The Korean government will continue to closely monitor internal and external economic trends, and at the same time will further improve the Korean economy’s resilience against external shocks.

The government will continue to implement the Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation and 2015’s economic policies in order to revitalize the economy and pursue structural reform.

04

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

1. External economic situation The US economy slowed slightly during the first quarter due to a spell of extremely cold weather and a strengthening dollar, while the eurozone economy improved due to the ECB’s quantitative easing program and a weakening euro.

It is important to take note of uncertainty in the eurozone stemming from worries over a potential Greek default, as well as weak economic indicators from China and Japan.

World GDP growth 7.0

(%)

6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

US The US economic recovery faltered in the first quarter with GDP growing 0.2 percent (advanced estimates, annualized quarter-on-quarter), which was considerably lower than the 2.2 percent of the previous quarter.

After recording positive growth in the previous month, industrial production returned to negative growth in March declining 0.6 percent month-on-month, due to lower production in the energy sector caused by falling oil prices as well as a strengthening US dollar. The ISM manufacturing index continued to decrease.

ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 58.1 (Aug 2014) → 56.1 (Sep) → 57.9 (Oct) → 57.6 (Nov) → 55.1 (Dec) → 53.5 (Jan 2015) → 52.9 (Feb) → 51.5 (Mar) → 51.5 (Apr)

Retail sales in March grew 0.9 percent month-on-month, increasing for the first time in four months, backed by improving consumer confidence and an end to sever cold weather.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 82.5 (Aug 2014) → 84.6 (Sep) → 86.9 (Oct) → 88.8 (Nov) → 93.6 (Dec) → 98.1 (Jan 2015) → 95.4 (Feb) → 93.0 (Mar) → 95.9 (Apr) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 93.4 (Aug 2014) → 89.0 (Sep) → 94.1 (Oct) → 91.0 (Nov) → 93.1 (Dec) → 103.8 (Jan 2015) → 98.8 (Feb) → 101.3 (Mar) → 95.2 (Apr)

05

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

US GDP growth and industrial production 10

Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board

(%)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q)

The housing market showed signs of recovery, as housing prices in twenty major cities rose at the fastest rate in six months and existing home sales in March recorded the highest since September 2013.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 6.8 (Jul 2014) → 5.6 (Aug) → 4.8 (Sep) → 4.4 (Oct) → 4.3 (Nov) → 4.4 (Dec) → 4.5 (Jan 2015) → 5.0 (Feb) Existing home sales (m-o-m, %) 2.2 (Jun 2014) → 1.2 (Jul) → -1.4 (Aug) → 2.0 (Sep) → 1.2 (Oct) → -4.1 (Nov) → 2.4 (Dec) → -4.9 (Jan 2015) → 1.5 (Feb) → 6.1 (Mar)

In April, nonfarm payroll employment surged, adding 223,000 jobs compared with 85,000 jobs in the previous month, suggesting that the US economy will likely improve from the second quarter. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 5.4 percent.

Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 250 (Sep 2014) → 221 (Oct) → 423 (Nov) → 329 (Dec) → 201 (Jan 2015) → 266 (Feb) → 85 (Mar) → 223 (Apr)

US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800

(thousands)

(%)

12

600 10 400 200

8

0 6 -200 -400

4

-600 2 -800 -1,000

0

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Unemployment rate (right)

06

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

(Percentage change from previous period)

Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditure - Nonresidential fixed investment - Residential fixed investment Industrial production Retail sales Existing home sales Unemployment rate² Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2012 Annual 2.3 1.8 7.2 13.5 3.8 4.9 8.9 8.1 2.1

Annual 2.2 2.4 3.0 11.9 2.9 3.9 9.0 7.4 1.5

2013 Q1 Q2 2.7 1.8 3.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 7.8 19.0 1.0 0.5 1.7 0.1 2.4 2.4 7.7 7.5 1.7 1.4

Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 4.5 3.5 2.4 -2.1 2.0 3.7 2.5 1.2 5.5 10.4 6.3 1.6 11.2 -8.5 2.5 -5.3 0.6 1.2 4.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 3.9 0.6 2.7 -6.3 -3.0 -5.1 7.2 7.0 6.2 6.6 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.4

2014 Q2 4.6 2.5 9.7 8.8 1.4 2.3 4.5 6.2 2.1

Q3 5.0 3.2 8.9 3.2 1.0 0.8 3.5 6.1 1.8

Q4 2.2 4.4 4.7 3.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 5.7 1.2

2015 Q1 Feb Mar 0.2 1.9 -3.4 1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.2 -0.5 0.9 -1.8 1.5 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg

China The Chinese economy slowed down, growing 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter compared with 7.3 percent in the previous quarter, and major economic indicators grew at a slower pace, including industrial production, retail sales and investment.

In response to the economic slowdown, the People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks by 100 basis points to 4.20 percent, the steepest decrease since November 2008, and cut the base rate again by 0.25 percentage points to 5.11 percent.

Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 51.1 (Aug 2014) → 51.1 (Sep) → 50.8 (Oct) → 50.3 (Nov) → 50.1 (Dec) → 49.8 (Jan 2015) → 49.9 (Feb) → 50.1 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Real GDP Industrial production Fixed asset investment (accumulated) Retail sales Exports Consumer prices1 Producer prices1

2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4 7.7 7.7 7.7 10.0 9.7 10.0 20.6 19.6 19.6 14.3 13.1 13.5 8.3 8.6 7.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.4

Q1 7.4 8.7 17.6 12.0 -3.5 2.3 -2.0

Q2 7.5 8.9 17.3 12.3 5.0 2.2 -1.5

2014 Q3 7.3 8.0 16.1 11.9 13.0 2.0 -1.3

Q4 7.3 7.6 15.7 11.7 8.6 1.5 -2.7

Dec 7.9 15.7 12.0 9.7 1.5 -3.3

Q1 7.0 6.4 13.5 10.6 4.7 1.2 -4.6

2015 Feb Mar 6.82 5.6 13.92 13.5 10.72 10.2 48.3 -15.0 1.4 1.4 -4.8 -4.6

1. Quarterly change: average of monthly change 2. Jan-Feb accumulated Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 18

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

(%)

(%)

70

16

60

14

50

12

40

10

30

8

20

6

10

4

0

2004.Q1

2005.Q1

GDP (y-o-y, left)

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)

07

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

Japan In March, the Japanese economy saw major indicators show mixed signals, as exports improved considerably while industrial production and retail sales declined.

Consumer prices increased slightly by 2.3 percent month-on-month (2.2 percent excluding fresh food).

Recently, the BOJ adjusted its forecast for growth and prices downward for the 2015 fiscal year.

Forecast adjustment for fiscal year 2015 Growth rate (%): 2.1 → 2.0 CPI excluding fresh food (%): 1.0 → 0.8 (Percentage change from previous period)

Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4 1.8 1.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 -2.7 9.5 17.4 -0.0 0.4 1.4

2014 Annual 0.0 2.1 1.7 4.8 2.7

Q1 1.3 2.3 3.8 6.6 1.5

Q2 -1.6 -3.1 -7.2 0.1 3.6

Q3 -0.7 -1.3 3.9 3.2 3.3

Q4 0.4 0.8 1.0 9.1 2.6

Dec 0.2 0.0 12.8 2.4

Q1 1.7 -2.1 9.0 2.3

2015 Feb -3.1 0.7 2.5 2.2

Mar -0.3 -1.9 8.5 2.3

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6

Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

(%)

(%)

4

25 20 15 10

2

5 0

0

-5 -2

-10 -15

-4

-20 -6

-25

2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

Eurozone Although the eurozone showed signs of recovery as economic indicators improved due to the ECB’s quantitative easing program and a weakening euro, downward risk factors continue to exist including worries over a possible Greek default.

Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.7 (Aug 2014) → 50.3 (Sep) → 50.6 (Oct) → 50.1 (Nov) → 50.6 (Dec) → 51.0 (Jan 2015) → 51.0 (Feb) → 52.2 (Mar) → 52.0 (Apr)

08

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012 Annual Annual Q1 Real GDP

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

2013 Q2

Q3

Q4 Annual Q1

2014 Q2 Q3

Q4

Dec

Jan

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

-

-

0.9

0.3

2015 Feb Mar -

-

Industrial production

-2.4

-0.7

0.1

0.8

0.0

0.6

0.8

0.1

0.0

-0.3

0.4

0.6

-0.3

1.1

-

Retail sales

-1.7

-0.8

0.0

0.2

0.6

-0.4

1.3

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.8

Exports (y-o-y)

7.7

1.1

1.2

1.8

0.3

1.0

2.3

1.0

0.6

2.9

4.4

8.3

-0.7

4.1

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2.5

1.4

1.9

1.4

1.3

0.8

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.6

-0.3

-0.1

Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg

Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3

Source: Eurostat

(%)

(%)

10 8

2

6 4

1

2 0

0

-2 -1

-4 -6

-2

-8 -10

-3 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

2. Private consumption Private consumption in the first quarter of 2015 rose 0.6 percent (advanced estimates of GDP) compared to the previous quarter and 1.5 percent compared to a year ago.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012 Annual Annual Private consumption²

Q1

2013 Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q41

2015 Q11

1.9

1.9

-0.1

0.5

1.1

0.6

1.8

0.4

-0.4

0.8

0.5

0.6

-

-

1.6

1.9

1.9

2.2

-

2.6

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.5

(y-o-y) 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Retail sales in March fell 0.6 percent compared to the previous month as sales declined for both semi-durable goods (down 0.2%), such as clothing, and nondurable goods (down 2.1%), such as food and tobacco. Year-onyear, the index increased 2.8 percent.

09

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

Private consumption 12

Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

(%)

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Private consumption (q-o-q)

Retail sales 20

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(%)

15

10

5

0

-5

-10 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Retail sales (m-o-m)

2015.1

Retail sales (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012 2013 Annual Annual Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q11

2015 Feb¹

Mar¹

0.8

0.4

-

0.2

-0.2

1.3

0.4

0.5

2.6

-0.6

Retail sales

-

-

(y-o-y)

2.5

0.7

0.5

1.1

1.7

2.4

0.8

1.5

1.9

1.7

5.4

2.8

- Durable goods²

5.4

0.3

-0.3

0.2

5.1

3.8

-0.2

1.8

1.3

5.3

-0.4

1.8

· Automobiles

2.4

2.1

2.1

-2.1

16.6

9.8

5.3

1.2

6.3

3.9

1.3

1.0

- Semi-durable goods³

-0.3

2.1

0.7

-0.4

-0.6

-1.4

-1.1

4.8

-1.7

-3.4

3.5

-0.2

- Nondurable goods4

2.2

0.4

1.5

0.8

0.8

-0.9

0.2

-0.7

1.0

-2.7

4.1

-2.1

1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.

3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc.

Source: Statistics Korea

10

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Retail sales by type 50

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Durable goods

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Nondurable goods

Semi-durable goods

Retail sales for April are expected to improve given strong automobile and gasoline sales.

While domestic sales of automobiles and gasoline both grew, credit card use also increased by a considerable margin. (y-o-y, %)

2014 Sep 5.3 -6.3 -10.1 7.0 10.4

Credit card use Department store sales Large discount store sales Domestic sales of gasoline Domestic sales of cars

Oct 7.5 -2.2 -0.9 1.4 2.1

2015 Nov 5.3 -6.5 -4.7 -1.0 7.0

Dec 8.7 -0.9 -3.8 -0.4 27.2

Jan 3.1 -11.0 -18.3 7.3 3.9

Feb 10.0 6.6 24.5 12.1 -3.8

Mar 5.7 -5.7 -6.5 8.6 5.5

Apr 15.3 1.5 -0.2 8.7 2.8

Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association

3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the first quarter of 2015 remained unchanged compared with the previous quarter and rose 5.7 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

Facility investment² (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment

2012 Annual Annual¹ 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -2.3 -0.4 3.1

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

2013 Q3 3.5 2.3 6.3 -3.5

Q4 4.2 11.6 2.3 9.1

Annual¹ 5.8 5.0 7.7

Q1 -1.4 7.2 -3.4 3.7

2014 Q2 1.3 7.7 0.4 3.6

Q3 0.2 4.2 2.0 -3.8

Q4 4.0 4.2 5.6 0.4

2015 Q1¹ 0.0 5.7 -

11

ECONOMIC BULLETIN โ ข may 2015

Facility investment 40

Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

(%)

30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Facility investment (q-o-q)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Facility investment (y-o-y)

The facility investment index in March declined 3.9 percent month-on-month due to decreases in both machinery and transportation equipment investments. The index rose 6.6 percent year-on-year.

Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50

(y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Transportation equipment

Machinery

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Facility investment index

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4ยน

Q11

2015 Jan Feb1

Mar1 -3.9

-2.8

-0.8

5.2

-4.0

1.7

-0.9

8.6

-2.2

-7.7

3.4

-

-

-

7.5

6.7

1.5

5.4

7.6

13.7

3.1

6.6

- Machinery

-2.7

-2.1

3.9

-6.1

0.9

-0.8

11.7

-2.1

-2.8

-1.7

-1.8

- Transportation equipment

-3.0

2.8

8.8

1.6

3.6

-1.4

1.5

-2.4

-19.8

19.2

-10.1

(y-o-y)

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

12

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Facility investment is projected to improve, taking into account a recovery in business sentiment. However, the increase may be limited by a fall in the average manufacturing operation ratio.

Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 75 (Aug 2014) → 74 (Sep) → 78 (Oct) → 74 (Nov) → 75 (Dec) → 77 (Jan 2015) → 73 (Feb) → 82 (Mar) → 80 (Apr) → 82 (May)

Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10

(trillion won)

(y-o-y, %)

9

70 60 50

8

40 30

7

20

6

10 0

5

-10

4

-20 -30

3

-40

2

-50

2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Machinery orders (left)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Machinery imports (right)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m) -Public -Private Machinery imports Average manufacturing operation ratio Facility investment adjustment pressure²

2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q1 -13.9 6.6 14.8 18.5 -2.0 -11.0 20.5 94.2 184.6 -14.2 5.1 4.8 4.7 -3.0 1.1 5.8 2.5 78.6 76.5 76.1 77.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 -0.7

2014 Q2 4.0 -11.3 -45.0 9.1 11.9 76.1 -1.1

Q3 49.4 45.2 418.5 7.7 1.7 76.0 -0.5

Q4 -6.3 -26.0 -27.6 -2.0 7.0 75.1 -3.5

2015 Jan Feb¹ 32.9 1.5 31.9 -17.0 32.0 17.6 33.0 0.4 14.0 3.1 74.1 75.1 0.3 -6.5

Q1¹ -0.1 8.8 -67.1 15.0 8.4 74.3 -2.7

Mar¹ -20.2 22.9 -85.8 12.8 8.8 73.6 -1.9

1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the first quarter of 2015 rose 7.5 percent quarter-onquarter and 0.7 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

Construction investment² (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

2012 Annual Annual¹ -3.9 5.5 -1.6 11.2 -7.1 -2.5

2013 Q3 -0.8 7.4 0.2 -2.5

Q4 -4.8 3.5 -3.3 -7.2

Annual¹ 1.0 4.4 -4.4

Q1 5.3 4.1 3.2 8.9

2014 Q2 0.5 0.2 3.1 -3.8

Q3 0.9 2.3 2.4 -1.8

Q4 -7.8 -1.5 -7.3 -8.8

2015 Q1¹ 7.5 0.7 -

13

ECONOMIC BULLETIN โ ข may 2015

Construction investment

Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

(%) 10

5

0

-5

-10 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Construction investment (q-o-q)

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

Construction investment (y-o-y)

The value of construction completed (constant) in March fell 6.8 percent month-on-month, as both building construction and civil engineering works decreased. The index declined 1.4 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Construction completed (constant)

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q4ยน

Q1ยน

2015 Jan Feb1

Marยน

-5.0

10.2

-0.8

1.0

-0.4

-2.7

-3.9

4.9

4.3

4.8

-6.8

-

-

-

6.6

0.1

-1.9

-5.9

-1.9

-4.4

0.2

-1.4

- Building construction

-6.6

15.1

7.8

4.8

2.0

-3.8

-3.7

5.1

5.7

4.1

-6.4

- Civil engineering works

-3.0

4.4

-12.3

-4.6

-4.1

-0.8

-4.2

4.5

2.0

5.9

-7.5

(y-o-y)

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50

(y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

Building construction

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

Residential buildings

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Civil engineering works

14

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Construction investment is expected to rise, considering a fall in the number of unsold houses and an increase in new apartment sales.

Unsold houses (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 50 (Jun 2014) → 51 (Jul) → 45 (Aug) → 39 (Sep) → 40 (Oct) → 40 (Nov) → 40 (Dec) → 37 (Jan 2015) → 34 (Feb) → 29 (Mar) New apartment sales (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 29 (Jun 2014) → 18 (Jul) → 23 (Aug) → 33 (Sep) → 64 (Oct) → 43 (Nov) → 17 (Dec) → 15 (Jan 2015) → 9 (Feb) → 33 (Mar) → 531 (Apr) 1. Estimate (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m)

-6.2

-12.9

15.3

Q1

2014 Q2

Q3

Q41

Q11

2015 Jan Feb1

Mar1

15.5

25.4

42.8

-7.5

52.9

30.5

-3.2

141.7

-

-

-

-5.1

12.4

22.0

-29.0

48.7

37.6

-16.5

68.3

- Building construction

-4.7

-10.2

24.5

11.2

45.6

61.8

-5.0

83.8

75.1

3.0

167.1

- Civil engineering works

-9.1

-18.2

-4.4

24.0

-11.5

-6.2

-13.1

-1.5

-39.1

-12.2

75.9

Building permits²

-0.5

-7.3

11.2

18.4

21.6

14.7

-4.6

11.0

36.8

-20.6

28.3

1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300 (y-o-y, %) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Construction orders

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Building permit area

5. Exports and Imports Exports in April declined 8.1 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $46.22 billion.

Exports continued to decline in April after falling 4.3 percent in March, on account of decreases in vessel exports and shipments to the US, which were on the rise in the first quarter of 2015.

15

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

By item, almost all exports fell due to a drop in prices, with an exception of semiconductor exports. By region, shipments to most regions including the US posted a fall, while shipments to the Middle East increased.

Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 7.5 (semiconductors), -5.2 (mobile phones), -5.2 (steel), -7.9 (vessels), -20.1 (petrochemicals), -43.3 (petroleum products) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 1.4 (Middle East), -2.7 (US), -5.2 (China), -11.4 (Latin America), -11.9 (EU), -12.6 (Japan), -19.8 (ASEAN countries)

Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was down 8.1 percent year-on-year, posting US $1.93 billion in April.

Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 4.0 (Aug 2014) → 1.2 (Sep) → 2.3 (Oct) → 1.6 (Nov) → -1.2 (Dec) → -7.3 (Jan 2015) → 9.4 (Feb) → -8.3 (Mar) → -8.1 (Apr) (US $ billion)

2013

2014

2015

Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 559.63 572.66 137.53 145.67 141.76 147.70 2.1 2.3 1.6 3.2 3.9 0.9 2.05 2.11 2.07 2.19 2.07 2.13

Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports

Apr 50.27 8.9 2.09

Q1 133.57 -2.9 2.01

Feb 41.48 -3.3 2.18

Mar 46.96 -4.3 1.96

Apr1 46.22 -8.1 1.93

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Exports by item 160 140

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

(y-o-y, %)

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

Export growth rate

2008.1

Semiconductors

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Automobiles

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Steel

Imports in April fell 17.8 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $37.73 billion.

Commodity imports decreased for the seventh consecutive month in April due to low oil prices, while imports of capital goods and consumer goods fell in April.

Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -28.0 (commodities), -1.6 (capital goods), -3.8 (machinery), -0.9 (consumer goods)

16

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

(US $ billion)

2013 Imports

2014

2015

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Apr

Q1

Feb

Mar

Apr1

515.59

525.51

132.37

130.96

132.84

129.35

45.87

111.98

33.81

38.58

37.73

(y-o-y, %)

-0.8

1.9

2.0

3.3

5.4

-2.8

5.1

-15.4

-19.6

-15.3

-17.8

Average daily imports

1.89

1.94

1.99

1.97

1.94

1.86

1.91

1.68

1.78

1.61

1.57

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Imports by item

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

100 80

(y-o-y, %)

60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Import growth rate

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Commodities

Exports and imports

2015.1

Capital goods

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

60 (US $ billion) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2004.1

2005.1

Trade balance

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Exports

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Imports

The trade balance (preliminary) in April remained in the black for the 39th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US $8.49 billion.

17

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

(US $ billion)

2013 Annual 44.05

Trade balance

2014 Annual 47.15

Q1 5.17

Q2 14.72

2015 Q3 8.92

Q4 18.35

Apr 4.39

Q1 21.59

Feb 7.67

Mar 8.38

Apr1 8.49

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in March after a surge in February, led by weak electronic parts and primary metals. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index fell 0.1 percent.

Compared to the previous month, production of processed metals (up 13.1%), other transportation equipment (up 14.0%) and semiconductors (up 3.1%) rose, while production of electronic parts (down 7.7%), primary metals (down 4.3%) and communications equipment (down 14.7%) decreased.

Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 16.6%), mechanical equipment (up 4.8%) and processed metals (up 3.1%) rose, while electronic parts (down 12.1%), communications equipment (down 31.9%) and automobiles (down 2.3%) declined.

Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50

(%)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Industrial production (m-o-m)

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Industrial production (y-o-y)

The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 1.1 percentage points month-on-month to 123.9 percent as inventories rose 0.8 percent and shipments fell 0.1 percent.

Inventories of mechanical equipment (up 4.9%), semiconductors (up 4.7%) and automobiles (up 2.0%) rose, while communications equipment (down 15.1%), groceries (down 2.5%) and leather & shoes (down 9.4%) declined.

18

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Shipments of processed metals (up 12.1%), other transportation equipment (up 13.7%) and electrical equipment (up 2.8%) rose, while refined petroleum (down 4.7%), mechanical equipment (down 3.5%) and electronic parts (down 2.4%) fell.

The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 1.5 percentage points month-on-month to 73.6 percent.

Shipment and inventory 10 8

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(m-o-m, %)

6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Shipment growth

2014.1

2015.1

Inventory growth

Average manufacturing operation ratio

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

100 (%) 90

80

70

60

50 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Mining and manufacturing production will likely improve in April due to IT industries releasing new products. However, the increase may be limited because some petrochemical companies will carry out regular maintenance.

19

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

(Percentage change from previous period)

2013 Annual Annual

Q1

Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-

(y-o-y)

0.7

0.0

Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-

0.7

0.1

0.7

Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity²

-0.3

2014 Q2 Q3

Q4

Dec

Q1¹

2015 Jan¹ Feb¹ Mar¹ -3.7

2.3

-0.4

-0.6

0.1

-0.9

3.4

-0.1

0.7

0.5

1.2

-1.9

1.1

-1.0

1.8

-5.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

-1.0

3.4

-0.2

-3.8

2.4

-0.6

0.4

1.2

-1.9

1.1

-1.3

1.6

-5.2

-0.4

0.7

0.0

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

2.1

-0.7

-3.2

0.5

-0.1

-0.8

0.3

-0.6

-0.1

-0.8

-0.8

1.6

0.4

-2.6

2.8

-1.2

-0.4

-0.1

-0.3

0.1

1.1

2.8

-2.2

-3.9

-2.2

1.2

Inventory³

4.4

-1.8

-0.3

0.6

0.9

-2.2

-0.4

3.4

-0.1

2.7

0.8

Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)

76.5

76.1

77.1

76.1

76.0

75.1

76.5

74.3

74.1

75.1

73.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

- Domestic consumption - Exports

1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period

7. Service sector activity Service output in March fell 0.4 percent month-on-month, as gains in real estate & renting and publishing & communication services were offset by declines in transportation services and professional, scientific & technical services. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output rose 3.1 percent.

Wholesale & retail (down 0.7%, m-o-m) and transportation services (down 1.8%, m-o-m) were down after a rise in February, while professional, scientific & technical services (down 3.4%, m-o-m) declined for the fifth month in a row.

Real estate & renting (up 4.2%, m-o-m) and business services (up 2.2%, m-o-m) continued to rise.

Service sector activity

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

20 (%) 15

10

5

0

-5

-10 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Service sector activity (m-o-m)

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Service sector activity (y-o-y)

20

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012 2013 Weight Annual Annual Q4 Service activity index

Annual

2014 Q1 Q2

Q3

Q4

2015 Q11 Feb1 Mar1

100.0

1.6

1.5

0.8

2.2

0.7

0.1

0.9

1.0

0.5

21.6

0.8

0.1

0.8

-0.2

-0.4 -0.5

0.1

0.1

0.6

3.4 -0.7

- Transportation services

8.5

1.2

1.0

-0.3

1.7

0.8

0.6

2.6

0.2

0.7 -1.8

- Hotels & restaurants

7.2

-1.2

0.5

0.9

1.2

0.2 -1.5

- Publishing & communications services

8.4

3.0

2.2

3.0

1.7

-1.2

0.9 -0.2

0.1 -2.7 -2.4

14.7

2.8

0.5

0.5

5.2

2.5

1.2

2.1

2.9

- Real estate & renting

5.3

-4.8

2.5

2.7

6.2

0.2

4.4

0.0

3.6 -1.1

- Professional, scientific & technical services

5.6

3.7

3.3

0.4

2.4

0.1

2.6 -1.1

- Business services

3.3

3.5

2.1

0.4

2.4

1.5 -0.6

0.3

1.0

1.9

4.4

- Education services

10.9

0.9

0.8

0.3

1.3

1.6 -1.9

1.1

0.0

0.9

0.9 -0.6

- Healthcare & social welfare services

7.5

6.7

5.2

1.7

6.3

1.4

1.4

2.7

2.0

1.4 -0.9

- Entertainment, cultural & sports services

2.9

2.8

-0.7

-0.4

-1.1

0.0 -4.7

- Membership organizations & personal services - Sewerage & waste management

3.6

-1.4

6.1

1.7

-0.7

-1.0

0.6

-0.6

-0.4

1.2

1.0

0.2 -1.4

- Wholesale & retail

- Financial & insurance services

0.7

1.0

1.5 -0.4

2.6 -1.2 -0.3 -0.1 -1.2

1.6

3.0

2.7 -0.3 0.8

4.2

2.0 -3.2 -1.5 -3.4

6.1 -2.1

1.1 -1.0

2.5

2.2

2.6 -2.8 -2.1

0.5

1.7

5.1 -2.3

1.1

1.8

2.8 -2.8

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Wholesale & retail

Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

20 (%) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)

10

2015.1

Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)

March 2015 service output by business 12

2014.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(y-o-y, %) Professional, scientific & technical services

8 Transportation services

6 4 Total index 2

Publishing & communications services

Education services

Entertainment, cultural & sports services

Sewerage & waste management

0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12

Wholesale & retail Hotels & restaurants

Real estate & renting

Financial & insurance services

Business services

Health & social welfare services

Membership organizations & personal services

21

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

Financial & insurance services and real estate & renting will improve in April amid rising stock and housing transactions.

Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 6.0 (Jul 2014) → 6.3 (Aug) → 6.6 (Sep) → 6.8 (Oct) → 6.7 (Nov) → 6.0 (Dec) → 7.2 (Jan 2015) → 7.5 (Feb) → 8.1 (Mar) → 10.9 (Apr)

8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in March increased by 338,000 from a year earlier to 25,501,000 and the employment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 59.5 percent.

By industry, services and manufacturing continued to lead employment growth.

By employment status, permanent workers continued to lead employment growth, while temporary and daily workers rose at a slower pace and self-employed workers continued to decline.

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Number of employed (millions)

Q4 Annual Q1

2014 Q2 Q3

Q4

Mar

Q1

2015 Feb Mar

24.24 24.68 25.07 25.41 25.35 25.60 24.91 25.79 25.93 25.77 25.16 25.27 25.20 25.50

Employment rate (%)

59.1 59.4 59.5 60.3 60.0 60.2 58.8 60.8 60.9 60.4 59.4 59.0 58.8 59.5

(Seasonally adjusted)

59.1 59.4 59.5 59.7 59.9 60.2 60.4 59.9 60.3 60.3 60.2 60.5 60.7 60.3

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

415

437

386

421

541

533

729

464

517

422

649

354

376

338

(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)

440

451

394

402

556

601

717

518

638

531

690

441

463

408

- Manufacturing

63

14

79

26

49

146

123

136

194

129

143

139

159

116

- Construction

-2

22

-19

4

-9

42

27

12

57

72

5

72

68

79

- Services

386

416

318

354

507

424

570

387

403

- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

-25

-14

-8

19

-15

-68

12

- Wage workers

427

315

483

526

604

548

· Permanent workers

575

436

615

632

637

· Temporary workers

-78

-2

-96

-65

2

· Daily workers

-70 -120

-37

-42

-11

121

-97 -105

- Nonwage workers · Self-employed workers

336

551

222

231

196

-54 -121 -109

-41

-87

-87

-70

711

485

519

476

654

442

465

402

443

606

478

333

355

524

355

383

331

140

74

118

226

141

157

82

62

43

-35

-35

31 -111

-40

-20

-27

4

20

28

-63

-15

19

-3

-54

-5

-88

-89

-64

-22

1

124

-67

-83

-54

1

-7

-14

19

7

-18

-49

-59

-19

- Male

238

234

186

179

262

266

373

228

268

196

285

141

144

166

- Female

177

203

200

242

279

267

357

236

249

226

364

213

232

172

- 15 to 29

-35

-36

-50

-41

46

77

97

53

102

56

69

32

30

39

- 30 to 39

-47

-31

-21

-34

-42

-21

-6

-42

-7

-29

-24

-1

18

-3

- 40 to 49

57

11

22

30

53

38

99

34

15

4

97

-47

-48

-67

- 50 to 59

291

270

254

279

285

239

323

227

215

190

292

177

183

158

- 60 or more

149

222

181

187

200

200

218

192

192

201

215

192

193

210

Source: Statistics Korea

22

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,000

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(thousands)

27

(millions)

800

26

600 25 400 24 200 23

0

22

-200

21

-400 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Employment growth (y-o-y, left)

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)

Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64

(%)

63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Original data

Employment by industry

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

100

(%)

80

60

69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4

40 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 20 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 2012.7 8 9 10 11 12 2013.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2015.1 2

Services

Construction

Manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

23

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) (%) 100 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.0 4.1

80

23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4

60

20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4

40

20

44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0

0 2012.7 8

9

10

11 12 2013.1 2

Unpaid family workers

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Self-employed workers

10

11 12 2014.1 2

3

Daily workers

4

5

6

7

8

9

Temporary workers

10

11 12 2015.1 2

Regular workers

The number of unemployed persons in March increased by 52,000 year-on-year to 1,076,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.0 percent. The unemployment rate declined among those in their 30s or over 60, but the rate rose in the other age groups.

Unemployment rate 6

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%)

5

4

3

2 2004.1

2005.1

Original data

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

The economically inactive population in March was up 106,000 from a year earlier to 16,300,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 62.0 percent.

The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 153,000, y-o-y) and housework (down 56,000, y-o-y) decreased, while those due to rest (up 181,000, y-o-y) and childcare (up 28,000, y-o-y) increased.

24

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3

Q4 Annual Q1

Number of unemployed (thousands) Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands) - Male

855

820

807

777

733

-65

-35

-13

7

-48

-26

-6

11

2014 Q2 Q3

2015 Feb

Q4

Mar

Q1

1,024 1,089 1,203 1,076

Mar

937 1,031 977

884

854

11

137

107

121

141

58

24

52

-7

49

37

59

74

25

15

11

125 165 40

62

- Female

-17

-9

-7

-4

18

80

84 103

70

63

67

32

10

41

Unemployment rate (%)

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.8

3.5

4.0

3.3

3.2

3.9

4.1

4.6

4.0

(Seasonally adjusted) -15 to 29

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

3.7

7.6

7.5

8.0

7.9

7.9

9.0

9.8

9.4

8.6

8.3

9.9

10.3

11.1

10.7

3.7

- 30 to 39

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.6

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.0

2.8

3.4

3.1

3.3

3.3

- 40 to 49

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

- 50 to 59 - 60 or more

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.5

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.6

2.4

1.8

1.2

1.4

2.3

4.4

1.9

1.5

1.6

3.0

4.1

5.6

2.8

Source: Statistics Korea

Labor force participation rate 65

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

(%)

64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Original data

2015.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Economically inactive population (millions)

2014.1

Q4 Annual Q1

2014 Q2 Q3

Q4

Mar

Q1

2015 Feb Mar

15.95 16.08 16.22 15.98 16.17 15.98 16.40 15.69 15.76 16.07 16.19 16.47 16.43 16.30

Labor force participation rate (%) 61.1 61.3 61.5 62.1 61.7 62.4 61.3 63.1 63.0 62.4 61.8 61.5 61.6 62.0 (Seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands) - Childcare

61.1 61.3 61.5 61.6 61.7 62.4 62.6 62.2 62.5 62.4 62.4 62.8 63.1 62.6 112

128

141

78

-5

-2

1

9

-91 -246 -433 -226 -222 -101 -372

72

83

106

-14

-55

41

24

28

-67 -202

-91

-87

-56

-39

-29

-57

-41 -99

- Housework

101

123

-3

-80 -112 -131 -230 -127

- Education

-51

-12

77

88

- Old age - Rest

-45

148

54

32

182

-53

-7

12

Source: Statistics Korea

-44

-81

-76

-68 -109

21

93

81

113

21

-92 -197

-90

-31 -72

-61 -141 -142 -153

91

89

96

68

80

65

-65

-15 -174

154

143

181

25

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI rose 4.2 percent in April, from 2,041 points to 2,127 points. The KOSPI advanced thanks to ample global liquidity and favorable earnings reports, but rose at a slower pace later in the month as investment sentiment weakened following steep gains.

Stock prices 2,200 2,000

(monthly average)

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

KOSPI

2015.1

KOSDAQ

(Closing rate)

Mar 2015

KOSPI Apr 2015

Change1

Mar 2015

KOSDAQ Apr 2015

Change1

Stock price index (points)

2,041.0

2,127.2

86.2 (4.2%)

650.5

689.0

38.5 (5.9%)

Market capitalization (trillion won)

1,272.3

1,327.3

55.0 (4.3%)

173.6

185.5

11.9 (6.9%)

5.1

6.6

1.5 (29.4%)

3.0

4.3

1.3 (43.3%)

34.0

34.0

0.0 (0.0%)

10.5

10.5

0.0 (0.0%)

Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p) 1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange

9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate in April fell 37.1 won to 1,072.4 won from 1,109.5 won at the end of March due to the weakening dollar, continuing current account surplus in Korea, and foreign investment in Korean shares.

The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell from 924.0 won in March to 904.4 won in April as the BOJ’s accommodative monetary policy continued and also as the dollar-won exchange rate fell by a relatively wider margin.

26

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Foreign exchange rates 1,800

(month-end, \)

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Dollar-Won

2015.1

100 Yen-Won

(Closing rate)

Dollar-Won 100 Yen-Won

2009 Dec 1,164.5 1,264.5

2010 Dec 1,134.8 1,393.6

2011 Dec 1,151.8 1,481.2

2012 Dec 1,070.6 1,238.3

2013 Dec 1,055.4 1,002.3

2014 Dec 1,099.3 913.0

Mar 1,109.5 924.0

2015 Apr 1,072.4 904.4

Change1 2.5 1.0

1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.

9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields were up from 1.72 percent in March to 1.84 percent in April. Treasury bond yields rose as demand for safe assets slowed amid rising international oil prices and recovering economies, and also as expectations for a rate cut by the BOK weakened.

Interest rates 10

Source: The Bank of Korea

(monthly average, yearly, %)

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Overnight call rate (daily)

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

3-yr Treasury bond yield

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

3-yr corporate bond yield

27

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

(Closing rate, %)

2009 Dec

2010 Dec

2011 Dec

2012 Dec

2013 Dec

2014 Dec

2015 Feb

Mar

Apr

Call rate (1 day)

2.01

2.51

3.29

2.77

2.52

2.03

1.99

1.74

1.74

-

CD (91 days)

2.88

2.80

3.55

2.89

2.66

2.13

2.10

1.85

1.80

-5

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

4.44

3.38

3.34

2.82

2.86

2.10

2.03

1.72

1.84

12

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

5.56

4.27

4.21

3.29

3.29

2.43

2.29

1.99

2.08

9

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

4.98

4.08

3.46

2.97

3.23

2.28

2.10

1.80

2.04

24

Change1

1. Basis point, changes from the previous month

9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in February rose 8.0 percent from a year earlier. Money supply in the government sector grew at a slower pace, but private sector credit growth accelerated, led by bank loans, and money supply in the overseas sector rose due to the current account surplus.

Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40

(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)

30

20

10

0

-10

-20 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Reserve money

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

M1

2015.1

Lf

(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

2009 Annual

2010 Annual

2011 Annual

2012 Annual

2013 Annual

M1²

16.3

M2

10.3

Lf ³

7.9

11.8

6.6

3.8

9.5

10.9

13.4

12.5

14.3

592.7

8.7

4.2

5.2

4.8

6.6

8.1

8.0

8.0

2,109.8

8.2

5.3

7.8

6.9

7.0

8.4

8.4

5.6

2,876.6

1. Balance at end February 2015, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)

2014 Annual Dec

Jan

2015 Feb

Feb1

28

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Bank deposit growth slowed in March, led by instant access deposits (18.4 trillion won → 2.7 trillion won), due to quarter-end corporate tax payments.

Asset management company (AMC) deposits grew at a slower pace. Despite corporate tax payments, money market funds (MMF) (5.0 trillion won → 1.8 trillion won) rose, as falling short-term market rates increased demand for MMFs.

Deposits in financial institutions 60

Source: The Bank of Korea

(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

2015 Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Mar1

Bank deposits

54.8

36.9

58.9

37.0

41.0

115.4

52.0

-17.6

9.5

5.7

1,288.3

AMC deposits

-27.6

-16.7

-16.6

18.8

17.7

47.0

-8.7

14.8

11.2

2.1

410.0

1. Balance at end March 2015

10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in March posted a surplus of US $10.39 billion, staying in the black for 37 consecutive months.

The goods account surplus rose from US $7.32 billion in February to US $11.21 billion in March, as exports improved month-on-month.

Goods export growth (y-o-y, %) -15.4 (Feb 2015) → -8.4 (Mar 2015) Goods import growth (y-o-y, %) -21.9 (Feb 2015) → -16.8 (Mar 2015)

29

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

Current account balance 14

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

(US $ billion)

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Services account

Goods account

2015.1

Current account

Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus expanded from US $7.97 billion to US $11.21 billion as imports declined by a greater margin than exports.

Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -15.3 (total), -28.1 (commodities), 3.3 (capital goods), 5.7 (consumer goods) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) -4.3 (total), -12.4 (mobile phones), 2.9 (semiconductors), -4.5 (steel), -32.7 (petroleum products), -6.8 (automobiles)

The services account deficit fell from US $2.06 billion to US $0.97 billion, due to improvements in the intellectual property rights and travel accounts.

Services account (US $ billion, February → March) -0.41 → -0.38 (manufacturing), 0.25 → -0.05 (transportation), -0.50 → -0.36 (travel), 0.58 → 0.80 (construction), -1.32 → -0.28 (intellectual property rights), -0.72 → -0.76 (other businesses)

The primary income account surplus fell from US $1.40 billion to US $0.53 billion due to a rise in dividend payments by corporations that close books in December, while the secondary income account deficit rose from US $0.22 billion to US $0.38 billion.

(US $ billion)

2013 Annual Annual

2014 Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Mar

Q1

7.32

23.42

2015 Jan Feb

Mar1

6.58

6.44

10.39

Current account

81.15

89.22

15.19

24.24

22.57

27.23

- Goods balance

82.78

92.69

17.75

26.43

21.68

26.84

7.97

25.22

6.69

7.32

11.21

- Services balance

-6.50

-8.16

-3.50

-1.84

-0.90

-1.92

-0.61

-5.41

-2.38

-2.06

-0.97

- Primary income balance

9.06

10.20

1.91

1.33

3.14

3.82

0.32

4.83

2.90

1.40

0.53

- Secondary income balance

-4.19

-5.50

-0.96

-1.68

-1.35

-1.51

-0.36

-1.22

-0.62

-0.22

-0.38

1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

30

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Travel balance

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

4 (US $ billion) 3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Travel balance

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Travel revenue

2015.1

Travel payment

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in March posted a net outflow of US $11.03 billion.

Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion) -7.81 (Aug 2014) → -8.76 (Sep) → -6.80 (Oct) → -9.92 (Nov) → -9.80 (Dec) → -8.25 (Jan 2015) → -5.54 (Feb) → -11.03 (Mar)

FDI net outflows increased from US $1.99 billion to US $2.39 billion.

Net outflows of portfolio investment decreased from US $3.00 billion to US $1.21 billion as foreign investment in Korean shares surged.

Net inflows of financial derivatives investment rose from US $0.03 billion to US $0.09 billion, while net outflows of other investment went up from US $0.37 billion to US $4.62 billion as financial institutions’ loans switched to a net outflow.

The current account is expected to continue posting a surplus in April, considering the trade surplus in April (US $8.49 billion).

Capital & financial account balance 15

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

(US $ billion)

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15 2004.1

2005.1

Direct investment

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Portfolio investment

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Financial derivatives

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Capital & financial account

31

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent year-on-year in April.

Consumer price inflation 7

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

(%)

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

2014.1

2015.1

Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)

Consumer price inflation

(%)

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

2014 Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

2015 Feb Mar

Month-on-Month

0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.1

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.1

Year-on-Year

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.4

Apr

Source: Statistics Korea

Prices were affected mostly by supply-side factors such as falling international oil prices.

Declines in oil prices (down 20.9%) and public gas fees (down 5.9% in January, down 10.1% in March) pushed down consumer price inflation in April by 1.4 percentage points.

Declines in agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices (down 0.5%), caused by favorable weather conditions and stable supply, lowered April inflation by 0.04 percentage points.

Consumer price inflation in major sectors Agricultural, livestock & Manufactured Public Housing Public Personal Total Agricultural products fishery Oil products utilities rents services services products products Year-on-Year (%)

0.4

-0.5

-1.4

-0.5

-20.9

-5.9

2.3

0.5

1.9

Contribution (%p)

-

-0.04

-0.05

-0.16

-1.10

-0.31

0.22

0.08

0.59

32

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Consumer prices for basic necessities fell 0.7 percent year-on-year due to falling gasoline, diesel and gas prices.

Fresh food prices declined 0.9 percent year-on-year, led by fruits (down 12.0%).

Prices 16

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

(y‐o‐y, %)

13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Consumer price inflation

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Core inflation

2014.1

2015.1

Producer price inflation

(y-o-y, %)

Oct

2014 Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

2015 Mar

Apr

Consumer prices for basic necessities

0.7

0.7

0.3

-0.3

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

Fresh food prices

-6.6

-5.2

-2.8

-2.1

-1.1

-2.0

-0.9

Source: Statistics Korea

Core inflation stayed in the two percent range. Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 2.3 percent year-on-year, and consumer prices excluding oil and agrilcultural products rose 2.0 percent. (y-o-y, %)

Oct

2014 Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

Consumer prices excluding food and energy

1.6

1.3

1.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products

1.8

1.6

1.6

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

Source: Statistics Korea

The expected annual inflation remained flat at 2.5 percent.

Expected inflation (%, Bank of Korea) 2.6 (Dec 2014) → 2.6 (Jan 2015) → 2.6 (Feb) → 2.5 (Mar) → 2.5 (Apr) Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -13.0 (Dec 2014) → -19.4 (Jan 2014) → -17.8 (Feb) → -17.1 (Mar)

2015

33

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices rose in April as geopolitical risks in the Middle East escalated and overproduction concerns softened.

Dubai crude prices rose due to declining crude oil inventories in the US and geopolitical risks such as the civil war in Yemen. Crude oil inventories in the US fell for the first time since the fifth week of January, reaching 487 million barrels in the fifth week of April, down 3.9 million barrels from the previous week.

Dubai crude ($/barrel) 53.8 (1st week Apr) → 54.5 (2nd week) → 57.5 (3rd week) → 59.3 (4th week) → 62.0 (5th week) (US $/barrel, period average)

Dubai crude Brent crude WTI crude

2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual 109.0 105.2 96.6 111.7 108.7 99.1 94.2 98.0 93.1

Q1 104.4 108.1 98.7

2014 Q2 106.1 109.7 103.0

Q3 101.6 102.7 97.2

Q4 74.6 76.7 73.4

Jan 45.8 49.7 47.3

2015 Feb Mar 55.7 54.7 58.8 56.9 50.7 47.9

Apr 57.7 61.1 54.6

Source: Korea PDS

International oil prices 160

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

($/B)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Dubai crude

2015.1

WTI

Domestic gasoline prices declined in April as the fall in international oil prices was reflected with a time lag, but started to rise again towards the end of the month due to rising international oil prices.

Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,510.6 (1st week Apr) → 1,508.3 (2nd week) → 1,505.8 (3rd week) → 1,505.8 (4th week) → 1,509.3 (5th week) (Won/liter, period average)

Gasoline prices Diesel prices

2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr 1,985.8 1,924.5 1,827.6 1,882.6 1,868.6 1,837.6 1,721.1 1,504.8 1,439.1 1,507.7 1,507.4 1,806.3 1,729.6 1,637.0 1,699.9 1,680.0 1,641.4 1,526.7 1,330.5 1,277.1 1,326.8 1,320.2

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

34

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160

160

(thousand won/B)

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40 20

20 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Dubai international prices (dollar, right)

International grain prices declined in April, led by corn and wheat, due to favorable weather conditions and a higher forecast for global grain inventories. The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2014-2015 global grain inventories from 429 million tons to 438 million tons.

International grain price increases in April (m-o-m, %) corn (-2.3), wheat (-1.3), soybeans (-0.7)

Nonferrous metal prices rose due to concerns over declining output, as production was disrupted in chile’s Atacama due to floods and Zambia’s copperbelt due to blackouts‚ as well as expectations of economic stimulus measures in China.

Nonferrous metal price increases in April (m-o-m, %) zinc (8.8), aluminum (2.5), copper (1.7)

International commodity prices

Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index)

* CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

4000

470 430 390

3000

350 310

2000

270 230

1000

190 0

150 2004.1

CRB (left)

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Reuters index (right)

35

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

(Period average)

2012 Annual

2013 Annual

Annual

3,006

2,774

2,523

Reuters Index1 (sep 18,1931=100)

Q1

2014 Q2

2015 Q3

Q4

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2,600

2,609

2,491

2,397

2,377

2,351

2,374

2,389

1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS

12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Apartment prices rose 0.4 percent month-on-month nationwide in April.

Apartment price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.6%), which includes Seoul (up 0.5%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.6%).

Apartment price growth in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area also accelerated (up 0.3%). Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

Apartment price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.4), Daegu (0.9), Gwangju (1.1), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.3)

Nationwide apartment sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

2014 Oct Nov

Dec Annual Jan

2015 Feb

Mar

Apr

Nationwide

1.9

6.9

0.0

0.3

1.7

0.2

0.2

0.1

1.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Seoul metropolitan area

-1.7

0.5

-3.0

-1.1

1.5

0.3

0.2

0.1

1.3

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.6

Seoul

-1.2

0.3

-2.9

-1.4

1.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

1.2

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.5

Gangnam¹

-1.0

0.3

-3.5

-1.1

1.2

0.3

0.1

0.0

1.4

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.6

Gangbuk²

-1.4

0.3

-2.3

-1.7

1.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.9

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.4

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

6.4

15.1

3.1

1.7

1.9

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.9

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Apartment rental prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month nationwide in April.

Rental prices rose 0.9 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.3 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area.

Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangdong (2.1), Gangnam (1.6), Seocho (1.6), Songpa (1.0), Nowon (1.6)

36

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Apartment sales prices by region 3

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

(m‐o‐m, %)

2

1

0

-1 2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

Nationwide

7

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

2014.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Nationwide apartment rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov Dec Annual Jan Feb Nationwide

7.1

12.3

2015.1

3.5

4.7

3.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

1.7

0.3

0.3

Mar

Apr

0.5

0.6

Seoul metropolitan area

6.3

11.0

2.1

6.2

4.7

0.4

0.4

0.3

2.4

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.9

Seoul

6.4

10.8

2.1

6.6

3.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

2.2

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.8

Gangnam¹

7.6

11.1

2.4

6.7

3.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

2.7

0.4

0.6

0.7

1.0

Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

5.1

10.6

1.8

6.4

3.8

0.4

0.3

0.2

1.7

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.6

9.2

14.5

4.6

3.3

2.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3

(m-o-m, %)

2

1

0

-1

-2 2009.1

Nationwide

7

2010.1

7

2001.1

7

2012.1

Seoul metropolitan area

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

2015.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Apartment sales transactions in April rose 7.7 percent from 111,869 transactions in the previous month to 120,488 transactions, and were up 29.3 percent from a year earlier (93,208).

37

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

Monthly apartment transaction volume

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

160 (thousands) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

7

Nationwide

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

2014.1

7

2015.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Apartment sales transactions

(Thousands)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Nationwide

67

82

61

71

79

90

93

78

74

77

76

87 109 91

91

79

79 112 120

1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

12.2 Land market Land prices rose 0.19 percent month-on-month nationwide in March.

Land price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.17%), which includes Seoul (up 0.21%) and Incheon (up 0.13%).

Land price increase in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.13 (Aug 2014) → 0.19 (Sep) → 0.20 (Oct) → 0.14 (Nov) → 0.14 (Dec) → 0.14 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.17 (Mar)

Land prices by region

(Percentage change from previous period)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2

Q3

Q4 Annual Q1

2015 Jan

Feb

Mar

Nationwide

0.96 1.05

1.17

0.96

1.14 0.46 1.96 0.45 0.48 0.49 0.53

0.48 0.48 0.14 0.15 0.19

Seoul

1.40 0.53

0.97

0.38

1.21 0.61 2.66 0.69 0.59 0.69 0.67

0.57 0.57 0.17 0.18 0.21

Gyeonggi

1.22 1.49

1.47

1.04

0.91 0.34 1.24 0.26 0.37 0.27 0.33

0.35 0.35 0.11 0.11 0.13

Incheon

1.99 1.43

0.66

0.46

0.87 0.23 1.35 0.37 0.25 0.32 0.40

0.37 0.37 0.12 0.12 0.13

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

38

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

Land price growth also accelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.22%), which include Busan (up 0.24%) and Daegu (up 0.33%).

Land price increase in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (Aug 2014) → 0.18 (Sep) → 0.20 (Oct) → 0.18 (Nov) → 0.20 (Dec) → 0.15 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.22 (Mar)

Land prices by region 18 15

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

(%)

12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

National average

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Metropolitan city

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

City

2013

2014

County

There were 278,000 land transactions in March, up 40.0 percent from the previous month and up 22.4 percent from 227,000 a year earlier.

Land transactions rose nationwide, led by Seoul (up 58.6%, m-o-m), Incheon (up 55.6%, m-o-m), Daegu (up 37.3%, m-o-m), Sejong (up 75.5%, m-o-m), North Jeolla Province (up 47.2%, m-o-m) and North Gyeongsang Province (up 41.4%, m-o-m).

Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 35.5 percent of the total land transactions, rose 42.1 percent month-on-month to 99,000 and was up 11.8 percent from 88,000 a year earlier.

Land transaction volume 500,000

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

(thousand m²)

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0 2004.1

2005.1

Seoul metropolitan area

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

39

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

Land transactions

(Land lots, thousands)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Nationwide 187 208 170 187 220 227 233 207 199 219 204 214 258 228 257 219 199 278 Seoul 16 18 13 17 22 24 22 18 18 21 21 23 29 25 23 20 21 33 Gyeonggi 41 43 33 37 46 47 49 42 39 45 42 46 57 50 53 45 43 62 Incheon 8 10 8 8 10 10 11 9 9 8 9 10 13 11 9 8 8 12 1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in March declined 0.6 percent month-on-month but rose 1.8 percent year-on-year. Output fell in mining & manufacturing (down 0.4%, m-o-m), construction (down 6.8%, m-o-m) and services (down 0.4%, m-o-m), but rose in public administration (up 1.4%, m-o-m).

Index of all industry production 20

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(%)

15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Index of all industry production (m-o-m)

Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %) Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p) 1. Preliminary

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

Index of all industry production(y-o-y)

Aug -0.6 0.6 121.5 0.6 100.4 0.2 122.4 1.1 100.4 0.6

Sep -0.7 1.8 121.8 0.2 100.2 -0.2 123.6 1.0 101.0 0.6

2014 Oct 0.4 0.2 121.9 0.1 99.9 -0.3 124.4 0.6 101.2 0.2

Nov -0.1 -0.5 122.2 0.2 99.8 -0.1 124.9 0.5 101.1 -0.1

Dec 1.3 2.1 123.1 0.7 100.1 0.3 125.9 0.7 101.5 0.4

Jan -1.9 0.6 123.6 0.4 100.1 0.0 127.8 1.5 102.5 1.0 1

2015 Feb1 2.2 0.6 124.5 0.7 100.5 0.4 129.0 0.9 103.1 0.6

Mar1 -0.6 1.8 124.7 0.2 100.3 -0.2 130.5 1.2 103.8 0.7

40

The Green Book : Current Economic Trends

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index was down 0.2 points from the previous month, declining for the first time in four months. Mining & manufacturing production, retail sales, domestic shipments and imports declined month-on-month, while service output, the value of construction completed and nonfarm payroll employment rose.

Components of the coincident composite index in March (m-o-m) service output (0.2%), value of construction completed (0.6%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.1%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.6%), retail sales (-0.3%), domestic shipments (-0.2%), imports (-0.4%)

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(points)

100

90 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.7 points. The inventory circulation indicator, ratio of job openings to job seekers and spreads between long & short term interest rates declined, while six other components of the leading composite index rose.

Components of the leading composite index in March (m-o-m) consumer expectations index (0.3p), domestic shipments of machinery (0.5%), value of construction orders received (26.9%), ratio of export to import prices (0.9%), international commodity prices (3.7%), KOSPI (1.2%), inventory circulation indicator (-2.3%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-2.0%p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.04%p)

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 110

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

(points)

100

90 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

41

ECONOMIC ECONOMICBULLETIN BULLETIN••may Feb 2015

Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan

Policy Issue

42

Policy Issue

Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan

The government published outlines for capital market reform along with measures to promote the KONEX market, encourage unlisted stock trading and develop

the derivatives market, all of which are aimed at encouraging investment and increasing fund management efficiency.

1. Capital market reform outline Problems

5 goals

15 activities ① Promote the KONEX market

Stagnating stock exchange market

1. Improve the bourse system

② Foster competition between different exchanges ③ Implement capital market investment promotion measures ④ Remove barriers to venture capital investment

Startup venture investment falling short of expectations

2. Increase venture capital investment

Large amount of capital being accumulated due to an aging population and low rates of return

3. Enhance financial asset management efficiency

Capital market infrastructure falling short of global standards, including investor protection

4. Revamp regulations to increase transaction efficiency and credibility

⑩ Introduce electronic securities

Fund management hampered by inefficient regulations and practices

5. Streamline regulations to help fund management companies strengthen competitiveness

⑬ Allow securities firms to expand financing function

⑤ Diversify exit channels for venture capital investments ⑥ Promote a private-placement corporate bond market ⑦ Revise PEF regulations ⑧ Improve pension funds’ asset management efficiency ⑨ Promote the financial advisory service industry

⑪ Revise rules regarding corporate disclosure ⑫ Publish the Korean “stewardship code”1

⑭ Help securities firms strengthen asset management services ⑮ Revise requirements for obtaining asset management

licenses and promote doing business overseas

1) Whose aim is to make institutional investors be actively engaged in corporate governance to maximize corporate value for the benefit of shareholders

43

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

2. Promote the KONEX market 2 In order to attract more venture capital investment and encourage companies to be listed on the KONEX, the government will: - lower the minimum deposit requirement from 300 million won to 100 million won for individual investors and introduce a ‘small investment account’, which will allow investment of up to 30 million won a year regardless of deposit levels - give priority to high-yield funds holding more than 2 percent of their portfolio in KONEX stocks when allocating initial public offerings on the KOSDAQ - ease requirements for startups to be listed on the KONEX: allow startups to be listed when institutional shareholders 3 hold more than 20 percent of their shares, official tech credit bureaus credit technologies, and institutional investors agree on listing - ease requirements for KONEX listed companies to be listed on the KOSDAQ when they try to be listed by merging with KOSDAQ-listed special purpose acquisition companies (SPAC) - strengthen investor protection: the exchange will require brokerages to inform individual investors about investment risks when opening a ‘small investment account,’ as well as provide information about the KONEX listed companies through reports and an online portal

3. Encourage unlisted stock trading in the OTC market The government has been working on promoting

over-the-counter trading of unlisted stocks in order to boost venture capital investment and reinvestment. In addition to the primary over-thecounter exchange for unlisted blue chip stocks, launched in 2014, the secondary exchange for ventures and SMEs has been open since April 2015.

The secondary exchange has the least requirements for companies to be listed, and is expected to boost trading of such shares.

4. Stimulate the derivatives market The government will introduce new products to stimulate the derivatives market, which has been stagnating along with a decrease in the KOSPI 200 Futures and Options trading.

- M ini KOSPI 200 Futures and Options lower the minimum trade requirement to one-fifth compared to the KOSPI 200 Futures and Options, from 130 million won to 26 million won for the KOSPI 200 Futures and from 30 million won to 6 million won for the KOSPI 200 Options. These mini products are expected to attract retail investors while satisfying sophisticated investors.

- K OSDAQ Individual Equity Futures, which has individual stocks listed on the KOSDAQ as underlying assets, offers risk hedging for KOSDAQ investment.

- Dividend Index4 Futures uses dividend indices for underlying assets and will satisfy growing demand for such products.

- Chinese Renminbi (RMB) Futures provides risk hedging for RMB trading and will help the currency trading market function in a stable manner.

2) The Korea New Exchange (KONEX) is a third stock market to trade shares of startups and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which was launched in June 2013 3) Such institutional shareholders need to be certified by the exchange 4) The Korea Exchange posts 4 dividend indices including the KOSPI high dividend index and the KOSPI dividend growth index

44

Economic News Briefing

Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased President Park Geun-hye Visits Latin America FDI Declines 29.8% in Q1 Korean FDI Grows 5.2% in Q1 190 Billion Won Digital Content Fund to be Created 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Signs FTA with Vietnam ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1 (Advanced)

Economic News Briefing

45

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

President Park Geun-hye (right) greets the crowd with Chilean President Michelle Bachelet in front of the presidential palace in Santiago, Chile on April 22.

Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased The government will ease regulations on greenbelt areas, where development is restricted, in order to improve the lives of residents living in the areas. Under eased rules, city mayors or provincial governors will be allowed to abolish greenbelt zones smaller than 300,000 square meters without first gaining approval from the central government. This will help reduce the time required to start a land development project by over a year.

Rules that require landowners to reside on their greenbelt property for at least five years before adding on to their current facilities will be abolished. Also, greenbelt landowners will be allowed to build facilities for the purpose of selling their products or running farming experience programs. Individual owners will be allowed to build facilities on up to 300 square meters of land, and if the residents of a certain greenbelt zone plan

to jointly run a farming experience program or a resort, up to 1,000 square meters will be allowed.

President Park Geun-hye Visits Latin America President Park Geun-hye concluded a four-nation tour of Latin America on April 27, which included Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil. According to Cheong Wa Dae, the President’s visit to Latin America helped expand the area of partnership from traditional areas, such as automobiles and minerals, to high valueadded sectors. During the tour, 78 MOUs were signed in areas such as information and communications technology (ICT), e-commerce, healthcare and renewable energy. The MOUs will pave the way for Korea’s retail and medical businesses to enter Latin American markets, and create opportunities for young adults to finds jobs in Latin America.

46

Economic News Briefing

FDI Declines 29.8% in Q1 Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea posted US $3.55 billion (notification basis) in the first quarter of 2015, down 29.8 percent from the same period of the previous year. Investment from the Middle East (up 919.2%) surged in relation to President Park’s visit to the region, while investment from China (down 76.5%) fell sharply due to a decline in real estate investment. FDI in manufacturing declined 84.3 percent, led by petrochemicals and materials, due to the slowing Chinese economy and falling oil prices. However, investment in services rose 15.9 percent.

Korean FDI Grows 5.2% in Q1 Korean FDI grew 5.2 percent, from US $7.34 billion to US $7.72 billion, in the first three months of 2015 compared to a year ago. By destination, FDI increased in North America (up 46.1%) and Europe (up 19.5%), but decreased in Asia (down 34.1%) and Latin America (down 12.3%). By industry, FDI rose in wholesale & retail (up 320.5%), finance & insurance (up 108.7%) and manufacturing (up 5.9%), but fell in mining (down 47.3%) and real estate & renting (down 51.0%).

190 Billion Won Digital Content Fund to be Created The government is planning to create a 190 billion won fund this year to help the digital content industry.

The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning will contribute 50 billion won, and the rest will be contributed by the private sector, state-run banks, the Small and Medium Business Administration and the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism. The fund will be invested in companies that show potential in computer graphics, digital animation, virtual reality and mobile content.

2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies On May 13, President Park presided over the 2015 National Fiscal Policy Meeting, where fiscal policies for the next five years were discussed. The 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies focus on stimulating the economy and at the same time ensuring mid- to longterm fiscal soundness.

The government will keep total expenditure increases below total revenue increases for the 2015 to 2019 period when drawing up its budget, while reviewing tax exemptions and reductions to increase total revenue. The government will improve spending efficiency by re-examining all fiscal projects, and will utilize private sector capital by promoting publicprivate partnership (PPP).

The meeting discussed fiscal reform tasks in 10 areas, which consist of local governments, local government education subsidies, R&D support, welfare expenditures, cultural expenditures, national defense projects, social overhead capital (SOC) investment, job creation projects, fiscal project evaluation, and public institution reform.

Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines On May 7, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced the ‘Peak Wage Guidelines’ in order to accelerate the adoption of the peak wage system by the public sector and create more jobs for young adults.

The government expects 6,700 jobs to be created for young adults over a two year period. the peak wage system is designed to guarantee retirement at the age of 60 while at the same time creating jobs for young adults. Savings in labor costs realized through the peak wage system should be used to hire young adults as new employees. The rate and

47

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

duration of adjusted wages under the peak wage system are determined by each institution. All employees under the peak wage system are counted toward the total number of employees except for those who continue to work after retirement.

parts, and will strengthen investment ties between the two countries.

Korea Signs FTA with Vietnam

The 18th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Azerbaijan on May 3, where the participants agreed on the new ASEAN+3 initiatives and on ways to better operate regional financial safety nets.

Korea and Vietnam officially signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on May 5. Korea will lift tariffs on 95.4 percent of products imported from Vietnam within the next 15 years after the deal goes into effect, while Vietnam will remove import duties on 89.9 percent of Korean goods. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the KoreaVietnam FTA is expected to boost Korea’s exports of textiles, electronics, cosmetics and automobile

ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

Participants agreed to establish ‘nonbinding highlevel guiding principles for macro-prudential policies and capital flow measures’ in order to deal with risks to financial stability. They also agreed on the pilot implementation of the ‘currency swap-financed trade

Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Yoon Sang-Jick (left) shakes hands with Vietnam's Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang (right) after signing the Korea-Vietnam FTA in Hanoi, Vietnam on May 5.

48

Economic News Briefing

settlement facility’ among Korea, China and Indonesia in order to promote ‘local currency usage in trade settlement.’

On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries grew 2.9 percent quarter-on-quarter, led by fruits and vegetables. Manufacturing grew 0.4 percent, led by semiconductors and petrochemical products, and construction grew 2.5 percent, led by residential housing construction. Services were up 0.9 percent, led by financial & insurance services, real estate & renting and healthcare & social welfare services.

The meeting agreed to further develop the qualification criteria for the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization Precautionary Line (CMIM-PL) based on key economic and financial indicators of all ASEAN+3 member countries.

Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1 (Advanced)

On the expenditure side, private consumption rose 0.6 percent, due to increasing durable goods consumption. Facility investment remained u n c h a n g e d f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s q u a r t e r, a s transportation equipment investment rose while machinery investment declined. Construction investment increased 7.5 percent, led by residential housing construction, while intellectual property investment rose 2.6 percent, led by R&D investment.

Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter. The growth rate was up 2.4 percent from a year earlier.

Exports remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter, as gains in goods exports were offset by declines in services exports. Imports rose 0.5 percent, led by overseas consumption and transportation services.

With regard to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the meeting agreed to create three new senior management positions and develop a ‘mediumterm strategic vision’.

GDP by production and expenditure*

(Percentage change from previous period)

20141

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

20151 Q1

0.6 (2.1)2 -2.0 1.6 2.0 0.5 -0.1 1.2 2.7 5.3 3.0 0.2 0.7

1.0 (2.7)2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.9 0.9 4.6 0.6 2.3 1.5

0.9 (3.2)2 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 3.5 -0.8 0.6 -0.7 0.0

0.9 (3.5)2 3.3 0.8 -1.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 4.2 -4.8 3.3 1.3 2.9

1.1 (3.9)2 -2.2 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 -1.4 5.3 2.0 1.4 -1.1

0.5 (3.4)2 -2.0 1.1 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.6 1.3 0.5 -0.1 1.3 1.2

0.8 (3.3)2 2.0 -0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 2.1 0.2 0.9 -0.3 -1.7 -0.7

0.3 (2.7)2 2.8 0.0 -3.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 4.0 -7.8 -0.5 0.4 0.7

0.8 (2.4)2 2.9 0.4 2.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.5 2.6 0.0 0.5

2013 GDP Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Manufacturing Construction Services3 Private consumption Government consumption Facility investment Construction investment Intellectual property investment Exports Imports

*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.

49

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates

Statistical Appendices

50

Statistical Appendices

1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)

Real GDP

Final consumption Agri., fores. & Manufacturing expenditure fisheries

Period

Gross fixed capital formation Construction

Facilities

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P

5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3

1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 2.6

7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 4.0

5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0

3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.1

0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.0

8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 5.8

2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8

4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2

9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1

5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0

3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9

1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4

4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8

2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3

1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6

6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9

5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0

6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2

3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9

10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2

2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6

7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4

8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3

4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4

1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0

-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3

7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0

2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8

2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0

-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4

-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5

-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8

1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1

-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5

2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0

0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7

16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9

6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4

12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2

1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2

27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1

-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1

11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4

3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7

-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3

-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0

8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1

0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3

2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0

2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7

6.2 -2.2 -0.9 -3.6

-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4

11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5

-1.2 0.3 4.4 6.8

2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2

1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6

-3.2 4.3 4.9 6.5

1.3 8.9 7.4 3.5

-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.6

2014PⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

3.9 3.4 3.3 2.7

5.6 3.3 1.4 1.3

5.1 5.1 3.3 2.4

2.7 1.7 2.0 1.8

5.8 3.3 3.3 0.7

4.1 0.2 2.3 -1.5

7.2 7.7 4.2 4.2

2015PⅠ

2.4

5.8

0.7

1.9

2.5

0.7

5.7

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

51

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100)

Period

Production index

Shipment index

y-o-y change(%)

Inventory index

y-o-y change(%)

Service production index

y-o-y change(%)

y-o-y change(%)

2012 2013 2014

107.4 108.2 108.2

1.3 0.7 0.0

107.2 108.1 107.9

1.5 0.8 -0.2

125.2 130.7 128.4

4.4 4.4 -1.8

104.8 106.4 108.7

1.6 1.5 2.2

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6

3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8

106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8

3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5

117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2

12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4

102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6

2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.0 109.3 104.3 113.0

-0.6 0.4 0.6 2.2

106.1 109.4 104.5 112.2

-0.5 0.9 0.7 2.2

123.1 119.2 124.5 130.7

4.6 3.8 8.7 4.4

103.2 106.8 105.6 110.0

1.2 1.8 0.8 2.1

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.7 109.8 105.5 110.9

0.7 0.5 1.2 -1.9

106.5 109.3 104.8 111.0

0.4 -0.1 0.3 -1.1

130.0 128.9 129.7 128.4

5.6 8.1 4.2 -1.8

105.3 108.4 108.3 112.9

2.0 1.5 2.6 2.6

2015 ⅠP

105.6

-1.0

105.9

-0.6

133.6

2.8

108.2

2.9

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

111.2 97.3 109.6 109.5 110.6 107.8 108.0 103.9 101.1 113.3 112.2 113.4

9.0 -8.3 -1.8 2.5 -0.1 -1.3 1.9 3.6 -3.4 4.1 -0.4 2.8

110.0 98.2 110.2 109.3 110.3 108.6 107.1 104.9 101.4 112.6 111.4 112.6

7.0 -7.4 -0.7 2.9 0.4 -0.5 1.8 5.0 -4.5 4.1 0.4 2.3

128.6 124.6 123.1 120.7 121.7 119.2 124.0 123.5 124.5 126.3 129.1 130.7

7.8 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.0 3.8 7.5 3.5 8.7 8.8 6.4 4.4

102.4 100.4 106.7 105.6 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.7 105.4 107.8 107.4 114.7

2.1 0.5 0.9 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.7 -0.3 2.9 1.8 1.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

106.2 101.0 112.9 112.4 108.4 108.5 112.3 101.2 103.1 109.8 108.3 114.7

-4.5 3.8 3.0 2.6 -2.0 0.6 4.0 -2.6 2.0 -3.1 -3.5 1.1

105.1 101.3 113.1 111.3 108.7 107.8 109.5 101.7 103.2 109.0 109.2 114.9

-4.5 3.2 2.6 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.2 -3.1 1.8 -3.2 -2.0 2.0

132.1 129.3 130.0 131.2 130.0 128.9 133.2 130.6 129.7 130.7 129.7 128.4

2.7 3.8 5.6 8.7 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.7 4.2 3.5 0.5 -1.8

104.7 101.8 109.4 106.9 108.8 109.6 108.7 107.9 108.3 110.6 109.8 118.4

2.2 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.2

2015 1 2P 3P

108.1 96.0 112.8

1.8 -5.0 -0.1

108.1 96.6 113.1

2.9 -4.6 0.0

132.4 133.0 133.6

0.2 2.9 2.8

107.1 104.7 112.8

2.4 2.9 3.4

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

52

Statistical Appendices

3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period

Production capacity index (2010=100)

Operation ratio index (2010=100)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Average operation ratio (%)

2012 2013 2014

106.9 108.6 110.3

2.1 1.6 1.6

97.5 95.1 94.2

-2.7 -2.5 -0.9

78.6 76.5 76.1

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5

2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8

97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3

-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5

79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

108.1 108.3 108.8 109.3

1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7

93.7 97.9 90.8 98.3

-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 0.0

77.3 76.1 75.4 77.0

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

109.6 109.9 110.6 111.0

1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6

92.8 96.8 91.5 95.8

-1.0 -1.1 0.8 -2.5

77.1 76.1 76.0 75.1

2015 ⅠP

111.1

1.4

90.0

-3.0

74.3

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.9 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.6

1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9

98.9 84.9 97.2 97.9 99.4 96.3 94.6 90.7 87.0 99.7 98.2 96.9

6.9 -12.7 -5.5 -1.0 -3.1 -5.0 -2.7 2.7 -7.5 1.6 -2.5 0.8

78.8 77.3 75.9 75.8 76.4 76.2 74.7 76.8 74.8 77.0 76.5 77.4

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.7 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.8 110.9 110.9 111.1

1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4

91.9 87.5 99.0 99.8 95.6 94.9 98.7 86.8 88.9 95.8 94.1 97.6

-7.1 3.1 1.9 1.9 -3.8 -1.5 4.3 -4.3 2.2 -3.9 -4.2 0.7

77.8 76.3 77.2 77.2 74.9 76.3 77.9 74.7 75.4 74.2 74.6 76.6

2015 1 2P 3P

111.1 110.9 111.3

1.3 1.3 1.5

93.0 81.1 96.0

1.2 -7.3 -3.0

74.1 75.1 73.6

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

53

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100)

Period

y-o-y change (%)

Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)

Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)

2012 2013 2014

107.1 107.9 109.7

2.5 0.7 1.7

116.3 116.6 122.6

5.4 0.3 5.1

103.9 106.1 105.5

-0.3 2.1 -0.6

104.3 104.7 105.5

2.2 0.4 0.8

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.5 106.5 106.7 111.8

2.9 1.5 2.9 2.7

109.4 115.0 118.5 122.1

4.0 2.7 6.5 8.4

99.0 105.6 92.4 118.4

0.6 -0.4 -2.2 0.5

102.8 103.0 107.5 104.1

3.3 1.9 3.1 0.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.8 107.7 107.2 113.0

0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1

111.0 118.2 116.8 120.3

1.5 2.8 -1.4 -1.5

102.1 107.3 94.9 119.9

3.1 1.6 2.7 1.3

101.2 102.9 108.0 106.6

-1.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.3 108.6 108.8 115.1

2.4 0.8 1.5 1.9

117.2 121.2 123.4 128.6

5.6 2.5 5.7 6.9

100.3 104.9 96.2 120.4

-1.8 -2.2 1.4 0.4

103.8 104.3 107.5 106.5

2.6 1.4 -0.5 -0.1

2015 ⅠP

108.1

1.7

126.7

8.1

98.8

-1.5

103.4

-0.4

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.6 99.5 107.3 105.4 110.9 106.8 109.2 104.5 107.8 111.3 113.2 114.6

-2.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0 -1.4 2.0 1.3 0.1

112.3 105.9 114.8 115.1 119.7 119.9 127.5 116.2 106.8 120.5 120.2 120.1

4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 2.0 -0.2 1.4 1.8 -7.8 2.9 -2.4 -4.7

102.8 93.3 110.2 106.7 113.8 101.3 98.0 86.6 100.1 113.9 123.8 122.1

-1.9 1.5 9.8 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.6 5.4 2.6 -0.8 4.1 0.4

101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.0 105.6 106.8 111.6 105.8 105.3 108.8

-6.7 3.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 2.8 1.9 2.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

110.4 99.1 109.3 105.6 112.1 108.1 109.9 107.1 109.3 111.1 114.3 119.9

5.5 -0.4 1.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 4.6

116.1 116.9 118.5 114.2 121.8 127.5 131.1 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.7 138.1

3.4 10.4 3.2 -0.8 1.8 6.3 2.8 2.0 12.8 -1.3 7.1 15.0

100.7 92.0 108.2 105.8 111.8 97.2 95.7 91.5 101.5 116.0 120.6 124.7

-2.0 -1.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.8 -4.0 -2.3 5.7 1.4 1.8 -2.6 2.1

111.9 93.9 105.5 101.5 107.7 103.7 106.3 108.6 107.5 105.4 104.9 109.3

10.0 -5.4 2.9 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.7 -3.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5

2015 1 2P 3P

107.3 104.5 112.4

-2.8 5.4 2.8

128.2 117.2 134.7

10.4 0.3 13.7

97.9 92.6 105.9

-2.8 0.7 -2.1

101.7 103.8 104.7

-9.1 10.5 -0.8

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

54

Statistical Appendices

5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)

Period

Consumer sentiment index

2012 2013 2014

102.5 102.2 101.8

1.6 -0.3 -0.4

102.8 103.4 102.6

2.5 0.6 -0.8

102.4 101.7 101.5

1.2 -0.7 -0.2

-

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0

-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6

97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0

-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9

102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4

0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1

-

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.0 98.7 102.4 104.7

2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2

108.3 100.9 102.6 101.8

10.7 1.8 0.1 -9.1

100.8 97.7 102.3 105.9

-1.2 -2.5 -1.5 2.4

-

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.7 100.3 102.4 103.9

-2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.8

103.4 103.0 100.9 103.2

-4.5 2.1 -1.7 1.4

99.5 99.2 103.0 104.2

-1.3 1.5 0.7 -1.6

-

2015 ⅠP

101.7

1.0

100.0

-3.3

102.4

2.9

-

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.8 96.9 103.3 99.5 99.7 96.9 103.4 104.0 99.7 108.8 102.9 102.3

8.2 -1.7 0.2 0.3 -1.9 -2.0 0.6 2.5 -6.0 2.1 -2.6 -3.2

110.3 106.4 108.1 98.1 101.7 102.8 109.0 103.8 94.9 104.4 103.1 97.8

19.2 8.2 5.5 4.3 1.3 0.0 3.5 5.5 -8.7 -3.8 -7.0 -16.1

108.1 92.9 101.3 100.0 98.8 94.4 101.1 104.2 101.7 110.7 102.8 104.2

3.9 -5.9 -1.9 -1.3 -3.2 -3.0 -0.7 1.3 -5.0 4.7 -0.7 3.1

102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

102.4 96.6 103.0 101.7 99.8 99.5 104.8 100.2 102.2 105.0 100.9 105.8

-5.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 0.1 2.7 1.4 -3.7 2.5 -3.5 -1.9 3.4

99.9 106.7 103.6 97.9 103.4 107.7 107.6 95.0 100.1 99.8 102.9 106.8

-9.4 0.3 -4.2 -0.2 1.7 4.8 -1.3 -8.5 5.5 -4.4 -0.2 9.2

103.4 92.3 102.8 103.3 98.2 96.1 103.7 102.4 103.0 107.3 100.0 105.4

-4.3 -0.6 1.5 3.3 -0.6 1.8 2.6 -1.7 1.3 -3.1 -2.7 1.2

109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107 107 105 103 101

2015 1 2P 3P 4

104.8 94.5 105.8 -

2.3 -2.2 2.7 -

101.2 92.8 106.1 -

1.3 -13.0 2.4 -

106.3 95.3 105.6 -

2.8 3.3 2.7 -

102 103 101 104

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

55

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Estimated facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) (2010=100) change (%) change (%) change (%)

Period 2012 2013 2014

21,648 23,078 26,485

-13.9 6.6 14.8

2,142 2,580 5,012

-11.0 20.5 94.2

19,506 20,497 21,473

-14.2 5.1 4.8

100.6 99.8 105.0

-2.8 -0.8 5.2

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910

-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0

810 285 579 468

126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6

5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442

-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9

105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4

8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5,587 5,865 5,144 6,481

-11.5 8.8 2.1 32.0

429 554 522 1,075

-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7

5,158 5,311 4,622 5,406

-6.2 4.0 3.7 21.7

91.7 101.1 99.3 107.0

-12.7 -3.5 3.2 11.0

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,624 6,099 7,687 6,075

18.5 4.0 49.4 -6.3

1,221 305 2,708 778

184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6

5,403 5,794 4,979 5,297

4.7 9.1 7.7 -2.0

98.6 107.9 100.8 112.8

7.5 6.7 1.5 5.4

2015 ⅠP

6,615

-0.1

401

-67.1

6,214

15.0

106.1

7.6

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,844 1,666 2,078 1,846 2,127 1,893 1,934 1,622 1,588 2,604 2,094 1,783

-4.6 -34.5 13.2 0.0 16.2 10.3 5.4 7.5 -6.2 72.3 26.5 2.3

139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124

169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.5 -28.5 815.5 28.2 -51.4

1,704 1,497 1,957 1,753 1,877 1,681 1,575 1,530 1,517 1,816 1,931 1,659

-9.4 -18.9 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.3 14.2 -4.8 27.4 26.3 11.5

90.1 83.9 101.0 98.7 102.1 102.5 108.4 100.6 88.8 109.6 101.9 109.4

-7.8 -23.1 -6.7 -7.1 -3.5 0.2 2.8 11.7 -4.6 16.0 10.3 7.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,748 1,847 3,029 2,276 1,826 1,997 1,779 4,090 1,818 1,932 2,303 1,840

-5.2 10.9 45.8 23.3 -14.1 5.5 -8.0 152.2 14.5 -25.8 10.0 3.2

88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139

-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5

1,660 1,727 2,016 2,179 1,709 1,906 1,690 1,549 1,739 1,722 1,874 1,701

-2.6 15.3 3.0 24.3 -8.9 13.4 7.3 1.3 14.7 -5.2 -2.9 2.5

90.3 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.3 104.9 111.4 90.7 100.2 99.8 112.5 126.0

0.2 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.1 2.3 2.8 -9.8 12.8 -8.9 10.4 15.2

2015 1 2P 3P

2,324 1,874 2,417

32.9 1.5 -20.2

116 141 144

32.0 17.6 -85.8

2,208 1,733 2,273

33.0 0.4 12.8

102.7 98.6 117.1

13.7 3.1 6.6

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

56

Statistical Appendices

7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won)

Period

Type of order Private

Value of construction Public completed y-o-y y-o-y (Total) change (%) change (%)

Type of order Domestic construction Public Private orders y-o-y received change (%) y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%) (Total)

2012 2013 2014

88,713 98,089 98,465

-3.3 10.6 0.4

33,807 34,459 32,004

-3.7 1.9 -7.1

50,622 59,714 62,403

-2.0 18.0 4.5

89,395 77,885 89,833

-6.2 -12.9 15.3

26,071 24,736 26,497

-8.9 -5.1 7.1

59,811 50,947 61,321

-3.3 -14.8 20.4

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676

0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8

7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876

1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8

10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613

-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6

22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596

38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0

5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443

37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8

16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877

46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

20,178 25,760 23,718 28,732

4.7 14.9 11.1 10.7

6,998 9,318 8,058 10,085

-6.0 4.8 6.0 2.1

12,415 15,455 14,739 17,106

14.0 24.2 16.3 17.1

13,826 18,694 16,833 28,532

-39.0 -27.4 -8.5 26.3

4,292 5,371 4,987 10,086

-24.1 -3.6 -7.7 6.8

9,180 12,636 11,442 17,688

-43.7 -33.8 -8.6 48.9

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

21,675 26,174 23,601 27,016

7.4 1.6 -0.5 -5.0

7,147 8,706 7,243 8,909

2.1 -6.6 -10.1 -11.7

13,676 16,512 15,360 16,855

10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.5

15,972 23,436 24,035 26,390

15.5 25.4 42.8 -7.5

5,898 6,577 5,190 8,833

37.4 22.5 4.1 -12.4

9,628 16,537 18,175 16,982

4.9 30.9 58.8 -4.0

2015 ⅠP

21,265

-1.9

6,559

-8.2

13,958

2.1

24,419

52.9

4,576

-22.4

19,595 103.5

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,272 6,236 7,670 81,057 81,607 94,947 7,854 7,666 8,199 8,637 9,088 10,708

8.2 3.3 3.0 18.4 11.7 15.0 11.6 16.5 6.0 17.6 12.2 4.6

2,072 2,346 2,581 2,830 2,797 3,691 2,635 2,553 2,870 2,952 3,118 4,015

-2.4 -1.1 -12.4 7.0 -2.7 9.4 11.1 10.0 -1.2 13.9 3.8 -6.2

3,962 3,662 4,790 4,978 5,088 5,389 4,908 4,827 5,004 5,344 5,635 6,126

17.4 7.5 16.4 27.5 23.9 21.6 14.7 22.4 12.4 20.0 18.1 13.7

3,557 4,723 5,546 5,151 6,221 7,321 5,775 4,690 6,368 7,751 8,083 12,698

-52.4 -44.4 -17.4 -19.9 -14.9 -39.0 -15.4 -13.0 3.0 33.6 11.6 32.9

1,300 1,281 1,711 1,565 1,564 2,241 1,493 1,474 2,021 1,518 2,664 5,904

-36.1 -42.3 21.9 7.7 47.4 -26.7 -35.2 12.0 13.5 -23.0 26.5 10.0

2,109 3,290 3,781 3,160 4,537 4,940 4,148 3,172 4,122 6,144 5,204 6,340

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

7,057 6,665 7,953 8,476 8,191 9,506 7,914 7,721 7,966 8,239 8,339 10,438

12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.2 -2.5

2,314 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,382 2,429 2,324 2,491 2,532 2,673 3,704

11.7 -6.0 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.4 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.3 -7.8

4,452 4,237 4,987 5,458 5,316 5,737 5,149 5,112 5,099 5,369 5,293 6,194

12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -6.1 1.1

5,528 5,549 4,895 7,359 6,834 9,243 6,969 8,688 8,377 7,755 6,427 12,209

55.4 17.5 -11.7 42.9 9.9 26.2 20.7 85.2 31.6 0.0 -20.5 -3.9

2,034 2,241 1,623 1,894 2,000 2,682 1,533 1,628 2,029 1,416 1,895 5,522

56.4 75.0 -5.1 21.0 27.8 19.7 2.7 10.5 0.4 -6.7 -28.9 -6.5

3,305 56.7 3,158 -4.0 3,165 -16.3 5,454 72.6 4,767 5.1 6,316 27.8 5,298 27.7 6,849 115.9 6,029 46.3 6,157 0.2 4,415 -15.2 6,410 1.1

2015 1 2P 3P

6,774 6,678 7,812

-4.0 0.2 -1.8

1,997 2,088 2,475

-13.7 -5.4 -5.7

4,561 4,373 5,025

2.4 3.2 0.7

7,216 5,371 11,832

30.5 -3.2 141.7

1,297 1,139 2,140

-36.2 -49.2 31.9

5,882 78.0 4,113 30.2 9,600 203.4

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

-60.0 -46.3 -23.1 -29.2 -26.0 -41.9 -4.2 -21.3 -0.9 62.2 8.5 92.7

57

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI Period

Leading index (2010=100)

Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)

Cyclical Coincident index indicator of (2010=100) coincident index (2010=100)

BSI (results)

BSI (prospects)

2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

101.5 101.7 101.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.3 103.5 103.8

101.0 100.7 100.3 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.2 99.0 98.7 98.4 98.3

103.5 103.5 104.0 104.0 104.9 105.6 106.2 106.7 106.8 107.2 107.3 107.7

101.7 101.4 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.0 101.6 101.6 101.2 101.2

99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1

101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.6 105.7 106.2 106.6 106.7 107.8 108.3 108.4 108.1 108.5 109.3 110.1

98.5 99.2 99.1 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.3 98.9 98.2 98.1 98.4 98.7

107.7 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.3 109.7 110.5 110.4 110.8 110.9 111.5 112.1

100.8 101.3 101.0 101.0 100.6 100.7 100.9 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.2 100.3

88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0

88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

110.4 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.7 113.8 114.5 115.1 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.1

98.5 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.3

112.4 112.9 113.0 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.1 116.8 117.2 117.8

100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 100.3

85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5

85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

118.7 118.9 119.0 119.4 119.8 120.5 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.4 124.9 125.9

100.4 100.2 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.4 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.5

118.5 118.9 119.4 119.6 119.8 120.2 120.8 121.5 121.8 121.9 122.2 123.0

100.5 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.2 99.9 99.8 100.1

89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4

93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0

2015 1 2 3 4 5

127.8 129.0 130.5 -

102.5 103.1 103.8 -

123.6 124.5 124.7 -

100.2 100.5 100.3 -

94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 -

90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4

Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea

58

Statistical Appendices

9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)

Period

Current account

Goods

2012 2013 2014

50,835.0 79,883.6 89,220.1

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

Services

Primary income

Secondary income

554,103.2 536,559.0 528,611.3

-5,213.6 -7,927.4 -8,163.4

12,116.7 11,424.8 10,197.7

-5,474.1 -4,182.3 -5,501.8

144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6

142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7

-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0

2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9

-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7

14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0

147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9

133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9

-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7

1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2

-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4

15,185.9 24,240.4 22,565.7 27,228.1

17,745.2 26,428.1 21,676.0 26,838.3

152,688.6 159,385.4 153,482.3 155,742.6

134,943.4 132,957.3 131,806.3 128,904.3

-3,503.4 -1,838.7 -904.0 -1,917.3

1,905.8 1,330.9 3,143.5 3,817.5

-961.7 -1,679.9 -1,349.8 -1,510.4

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3,075.6 2,473.1 7,065.6 5,334.6 9,886.4 7,126.4 7,323.2 6,745.6 8,181.6 11,108.9 6,229.9 6,597.3

3,953.0 3,256.4 7,088.6 5,510.6 9,363.1 5,711.6 7,462.2 7,271.4 8,572.1 9,767.8 8,024.8 6,799.4

51,765.7 44,916.0 51,141.6 51,704.7 53,477.3 48,883.9 53,326.3 49,899.2 50,490.3 56,820.8 52,702.3 53,028.8

47,812.7 41,659.6 44,053.0 46,194.1 44,114.2 43,172.3 45,864.1 42,627.8 41,918.2 47,053.0 44,677.5 46,229.4

-1,556.6 -1,144.9 33.6 496.2 -28.7 180.4 -879.0 -869.3 -330.2 405.8 -2,088.9 -717.6

1,169.5 623.3 19.6 -482.0 721.6 1,420.9 1,032.7 665.9 648.0 1,335.7 674.8 1,225.7

-490.3 -261.7 -76.2 -190.2 -169.6 -186.5 -292.7 -322.4 -708.3 -400.4 -380.8 -710.2

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3,323.7 4,537.5 7,324.7 7,163.1 9,119.2 7,958.1 7,881.7 7,235.1 7,448.9 8,883.2 11,322.1 7,022.8

4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,133.5 6,646.6 6,794.4 7,367.3 7,514.3 8,487.1 10,031.4 8,319.8

50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,383.0 50,281.0 53,811.7 48,920.1 50,750.5 51,970.8 50,063.0 53,708.8

46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,249.5 43,634.4 47,017.3 41,552.8 43,236.2 43,483.7 40,031.6 45,389.0

-1,873.7 -1,020.3 -609.4 -1,004.4 -297.7 -536.6 31.0 -694.3 -240.7 -212.6 -164.6 -1,540.1

1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1 2,225.5 1,488.8 1,048.0 606.7 967.6 1,667.5 1,182.4

-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.7 -377.4 -432.5 -485.9 -431.4 -358.9 -212.2 -939.3

2015P 1 2 3

6,583.0 6,442.2 10,391.0

6,687.0 7,321.2 11,211.9

45,398.8 40,595.3 49,570.1

38,711.8 33,274.1 38,358.2

-2,384.4 -2,061.6 -967.2

2,900.4 1,401.3 528.8

-620.0 -218.7 -382.5

Exports

Imports

49,406.0 80,568.6 92,687.6

603,509.2 617,127.6 621,298.9

-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1

1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

59

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)

Capital & financial account

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

Financial derivatives

Other investment

Capital transfers & acquisition of nonfinancial assets

Reserve assets

2012 2013 2014

-51,582.4 -80,104.6 -90,383.3

-21,136.2 -15,593.2 -20,659.5

6,747.8 -9,344.5 -33,605.3

2,627.8 4,410.3 3,704.9

-26,637.3 -43,281.1 -21,937.9

-41.7 -27.0 -9.0

-13,184.5 -16,296.1 -17,885.5

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2

-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9

14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5

1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6

-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1

-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8

-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-11,448.7 -19,645.6 -22,675.5 -26,334.8

-3,878.4 -3,397.8 -3,426.8 -4,890.2

-7,285.9 -9,776.5 9,375.4 -1,657.5

1,395.8 -513.6 1,656.3 1,871.8

2,880.2 -10,063.8 -23,611.4 -12,486.1

-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6

-4,560.4 4,106.1 -6,669.0 -9,172.8

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-17177.8 -24,208.1 -22,481.5 -26,515.9

-3,657.7 -7,552.9 -3,908.6 -5,540.3

-13,596.7 -5,867.2 -4,762.4 -9,379.0

892.6 2,083.5 1,531.9 -803.1

6,207.4 -1,701.9 -9,510.4 -16,933.0

-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.2

-7,023.4 -11,169.6 -5,832.0 6,139.5

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-2,694.7 -1,707.1 -7,046.9 -2,435.7 -12,288.9 -4,921.0 -9,446.1 -6,236.3 -6,993.1 -10,139.4 -7,433.1 -8,762.3

-802.5 -909.3 -2,166.6 401.3 -2,175.6 -1,623.5 -796.8 -1,157.2 -1,472.8 -340.7 -2,243.9 -2,305.6

-5,964.7 2,149.9 -3,471.1 -2,060.8 -1,642.1 -6,073.6 1,785.8 1,584.1 6,005.5 4,942.8 -1,557.9 -5,042.4

579.6 651.0 165.2 -301.1 719.1 -931.6 431.4 210.0 1,014.9 805.3 466.9 599.6

4,123.7 -1,158.3 -85.2 -1,382.5 -8,189.7 -491.6 -8,821.6 -5,172.4 -9,617.4 -10,754.2 -1,248.6 -483.3

-8.0 -2.9 8.2 -1.6 -11.0 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6

-630.8 -2,440.4 -1,489.2 907.4 -1,000.6 4,199.3 -2,044.9 -1,700.8 -2,923.3 -4,792.6 -2,849.6 -1,530.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -8,132.4 -9,836.9 -5,916.9 -7,802.4 -8,762.2 -6,801.5 -9,915.5 -9,798.9

529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8 -2,056.3 -1,011.5 -749.5 -2,147.6 -2,088.9 -2,098.2 -1,353.2

-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0 -4,218.5 -1,743.7 504.4 -3,523.1 -382.4 -2,835.6 -6,161.0

155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5 690.9 504.1 557.7 470.1 -570.7 -81.8 -150.6

1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 3,950.6 283.1 -338.1 -7,288.1 -1,884.2 -4,007.0 -7,797.4 -5,128.6

-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -4.2

-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7 -826.9 -1,677.4 247.5 2,897.5 2,994.5

2015P 1 2 3

-8,240.4 -5,538.7 -11,020.7

-1,001.5 -1,994.5 -2,389.9

-3,623.7 -3,001.5 -1,213.2

-76.2 27.5 89.7

489.1 -371.2 -4,624.3

-13.0 -1.7 -8.4

-4,028.1 -199.0 -2,883.0

Period

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

60

Statistical Appendices

11. Prices (2010=100)

Period

Consumer Prices Commodities Services

All Items y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Producer prices All Items Commodities

Core

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

2012 2013 2014

106.3 107.7 109.0

2.2 1.3 1.3

108.9 110.1 111.1

3.0 1.0 0.9

104.2 105.8 107.4

1.4 1.5 1.6

104.9 106.6 108.8

1.6 1.6 2.0

107.5 105.7 105.2

0.7 -1.6 -0.5

108.9 106.2 104.8

0.2 -2.5 -1.4

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7

3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4

107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0

4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6

103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8

2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3

104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5

3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2

107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8

3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2

109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4

3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9

1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1

109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2

1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9

105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5

1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9

106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4

-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4

106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5

-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8

1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8

110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1

0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0

106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8

1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6

107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3

1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6

105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1

-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1

105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.9

-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6

2015 1 2 3

109.4 109.4 109.4

0.8 0.5 0.4

110.9 110.6 110.3

-0.1 -0.7 -1.2

108.2 108.4 108.7

1.5 1.5 1.6

110.3 110.4 110.6

2.4 2.3 2.1

101.9 101.9 101.8

-3.6 -3.6 -3.7

99.7 99.7 99.5

-5.8 -5.8 -5.9

Source: The Bank of Korea

61

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

12. Employment Period

Economically active persons (thousand)

All industry

y-o-y change (%)

Employed persons (thousand) Manufacturing SOC & services

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Unemployment rate (%)

2012 2013 2014

25,501 25,873 26,536

1.6 1.5 2.6

24,681 25,066 25,599

1.8 1.6 2.1

4,105 4,184 4,330

0.3 1.9 3.5

19,033 19,347 19,805

2.4 1.6 2.4

3.2 3.1 3.5

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139

2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0

23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402

2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1

4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183

-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8

18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010

3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9

3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736

1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4

24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962

1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3

4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264

3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0

18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514

1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7

3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270

3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1

24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384

2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7

4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406

2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3

19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896

3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0

3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4

2015 1 2 3 4

26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954

1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9

25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900

1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8

4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455

3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9

19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004

1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9

3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9

Source: Statistics Korea

62

Statistical Appendices

13. Financial indicators (period average)

Period

Yields(%) Corporate bonds Treasury bonds (3 years, AA-) (3 years)

Treasury bonds (5 years)

Stock KOSPI(endperiod)

Call rate (1 day)

CDs (91 days)

2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3

2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2

3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4

4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5

2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8

3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9

4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0

1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9

2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3

1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0

2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1

3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3

1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59

2015 1 2 3 4

2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7

2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8

2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0

2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7

2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9

1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17

Source: The Bank of Korea

63

ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015

14. Monetary indicators (billion won)

Reserve money y-o-y change (%)

Period 2012 2013 2014

M1

M2

y-o-y change (%)

Lf

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

82,131.1 91,379.4 103,331.5

9.2 11.3 13.1

441,963.6 484,062.9 536,733.4

3.8 9.5 10.9

1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3

5.2 4.8 6.6

2,379,518.7 2,543,299.4 2,721,747.4

7.8 6.9 7.0

2012 1 2

81,635.4 81,655.3

11.0 8.3

439,352.9 437,193.9

2.3 1.1

1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4

4.8 5.3

2,292,213.5 2,302,065.8

6.5 7.2

3

79,068.0

8.3

440,075.4

2.1

1,773,172.9

5.7

2,341,626.9

8.8

4

80,641.8

10.2

437,445.3

2.8

1,777,114.7

5.5

2,349,723.2

8.6

5

80,547.7

9.1

438,795.3

3.5

1,784,220.5

5.5

2,357,701.0

8.4

6

81,804.0

9.5

441,611.0

4.7

1,796,981.5

5.9

2,377,071.3

8.5

7

81,555.7

10.1

441,760.6

5.4

1,807,289.2

6.0

2,393,737.7

8.4

8

82,369.1

8.9

439,573.2

4.0

1,817,134.9

5.7

2,405,239.9

7.8

9

82,958.7

6.4

440,034.3

3.5

1,819,290.1

5.2

2,415,263.5

7.6

10

85,078.6

10.6

444,477.8

5.5

1,822,420.9

4.6

2,424,000.4

7.1

11 12

82,956.5 85,302.7

8.3 9.6

445,463.9 457,778.9

5.3 5.8

1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7

4.4 4.5

2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9

7.1 7.3

2013 1 2

85,839.3 88,855.7

5.1 8.8

464,914.5 472,239.6

5.8 8.0

1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0

4.8 5.3

2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0

7.7 8.1

3

89,523.5

13.2

472,430.1

7.4

1,862,405.5

5.0

2,499,718.1

6.8

4

87,729.0

8.8

475,330.0

8.7

1,867,726.3

5.1

2,512,459.7

6.9

5

89,654.8

11.3

475,526.7

8.4

1,870,289.7

4.8

2,518,239.1

6.8

6

91,207.6

11.5

486,587.5

10.2

1,884,193.2

4.9

2,533,750.8

6.6

7

90,643.7

11.1

488,982.7

10.7

1,890,728.6

4.6

2,549,443.5

6.5

8

93,729.6

13.8

481,416.9

9.5

1,888,658.4

3.9

2,557,336.3

6.3

9

95,130.6

14.7

490,518.7

11.5

1,903,187.1

4.6

2,577,546.7

6.7

10

93,640.4

10.1

491,947.9

10.7

1,908,557.6

4.7

2,587,071.4

6.7

11 12

93,609.9 96,988.5

12.8 13.7

499,242.7 509,617.9

12.1 11.3

1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4

5.1 5.3

2,605,873.9 2,619,029.5

6.8 6.6

2014 1 2

98,541.6 100,547.9

14.8 13.2

515,742.5 518,475.5

10.9 9.8

1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7

5.2 5.2

2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0

6.7 6.4

3

100,624.0

12.4

520,299.0

10.1

1,964,954.0

5.5

2,659,370.7

6.4

4

98,898.5

12.7

518,809.3

9.1

1,970,361.6

5.5

2,669,341.4

6.2

5

101,791.4

13.5

523,069.9

10.0

1,982,390.9

6.0

2,684,643.9

6.6

6

101,412.3

11.2

532,041.2

9.3

1,999,376.3

6.1

2,703,088.1

6.7

7

101,164.2

11.6

534,028.8

9.2

2,013,935.1

6.5

2,725,737.6

6.9

8

107,682.4

14.9

538,640.3

11.9

2,031,777.2

7.6

2,743,972.5

7.3

9

105,354.1

10.7

548,550.8

11.8

2,037,600.8

7.1

2,759,390.8

7.1

10

107,117.5

14.4

551,416.0

12.1

2,051,149.8

7.5

2,776,971.6

7.3

11 12

106,667.9 110,175.6

13.9 13.6

562,006.2 577,721.1

12.6 13.4

2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8

8.3 8.1

2,817,698.0 2,837,910.9

8.1 8.2

2015 1 2 3

113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9

15.0 15.9 15.3

579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9

12.5 14.3 15.5

2,092,223.5 2,109,843.2 2,127,887.8

8.0 8.0 8.3

2,857,610.1 2,876,619.9 2,907,976.4

8.4 8.6 9.3

Source: The Bank of Korea

64

Statistical Appendices

15. Exchange rates (end-period)

Period

100/ \

US $/ \

Euro/ \

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

y-o-y change (%)

2012 2013 2014

1,071.1 1,055.3 1,099.2

-7.1 -1.5 4.2

1,247.5 1,004.7 920.1

-16.0 -19.5 -8.4

1,416.3 1,456.3 1,336.5

-5.2 2.8 -8.2

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1

1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1

1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5

8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0

1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3

-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3

-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5

1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7

-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5

1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3

-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2

-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2

1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1

-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4

1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5

0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2

2015 1 2 3 4

1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1

1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5

921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2

-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8

1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0

-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7

Source: The Bank of Korea

Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english

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ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

Republic of Korea

Vol.37 No.5 May 2015

conomic u l l e t i n

Vol.37 No.5 May 2015

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan

Economic News Briefing Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1

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