ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.37 No.5 May 2015
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.37 No.5 May 2015
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan
Economic News Briefing Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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May 2015
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 263 Namsejong-ro Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
01. External economic situation
04
02. Private consumption
08
03. Facility investment
10
04. Construction investment
12
05. Exports and imports
14
06. Mining and manufacturing production
17
07. Service sector activity
19
08. Employment
21
09. Financial markets
25
9.1 Stock market
25
9.2 Exchange rate
25
9.3 Bond market
26
9.4 Money supply & money market
27
10. Balance of payments
28
11. Prices
31
11.1 Consumer prices
31
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
33
12. Real estate market
35
12.2 Land market
37
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
contents Editor in Chief Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI) An Il-Whan (MOSF) Editorial Board Park Joon-Kyu (MOSF) Lee Yong-Soo (KDI) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) Editors Jeon Aram (MOSF) Kim Hanul (MOSF)
35
12.1 Housing market
39
Vol.37 No.5 / May 2015
41 Policy Issue Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan
44 Economic News Briefing Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased President Park Geun-hye Visits Latin America FDI Declines 29.8% in Q1 Korean FDI Grows 5.2% in Q1 190 Billion Won Digital Content Fund to be Created 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Signs FTA with Vietnam ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1
49 Statistical Appendices
02
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Overview
01. External economic situation
02. Private consumption 03. Facility investment 04. Construction investment 05. Exports and imports 06. Mining and manufacturing production 07. Service sector activity 08. Employment 09. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
03
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
OVERVIEW The economy continues to recover from a setback in the fourth quarter of last year, despite some real economic indicators fluctuating somewhat, including production, consumption and construction investment. Employment growth is slowing down and inflation remains low due to low international oil prices.
indices will likely improve given a large increase in machinery and construction orders.
The economy continued to add jobs in March but at a slower rate due to a high base effect (649,000 jobs added in March 2014). Permanent jobs led the increase and a total of 338,000 jobs were added yearon-year compared with 376,000 jobs a month ago.
Exports continued to decrease year-on-year in April, falling 8.1 percent from a year ago, as low international oil prices pushed down prices. The trade balance posted a surplus of US $8.49 billion.
Consumer price inflation remained low in April, rising 0.4 percent year-on-year, due to low petroleum prices and a stable supply of agricultural products, while core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products and is more related to demand, rose 2.0 percent, staying in the two percent range. Mining and manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in March after a 2.3 percent increase in the previous month, but the index decreased at a slower rate quarter-on-quarter, falling 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2015 compared with a 0.9 percent decline in the previous quarter. Service output and retail sales decreased in March following an increase in the previous month when the Lunar New Year pushed up demand, falling 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. However, both indices improved quarter-on-quarter, each increasing 0.5 percent in the first quarter. Facility investment in March fell 3.9 percent from a 3.4 percent rise in the previous month due to weak transportation equipment investment, while construction completed dropped 6.8 percent after a 4.8 percent surge as both building construction and civil engineering works declined. However, the two
The composite index of coincident indicators fell 0.2 points from the previous month in March, and the composite index of leading indicators increased 0.7 points, rising for four months in a row.
In April, the KOSPI went up due to increased foreign capital inflows, while market interest rates rose. The Korean won appreciated against the US dollar and the Japanese yen compared to the previous month. Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase in April, rising 0.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, while housing sales surged year-onyear by 29.2 percent to 120,000 transactions. Although uncertainties remain as the Japanese yen continues to be weak and the global economic recovery has yet to fully take root, the economy is likely to be positively influenced by low international oil prices and asset market recoveries, including housing and stock markets, which in turn lead to strong consumer and investor sentiment. The Korean government will continue to closely monitor internal and external economic trends, and at the same time will further improve the Korean economy’s resilience against external shocks. The government will continue to implement the Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation and 2015’s economic policies in order to revitalize the economy and pursue structural reform.
04
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
1. External economic situation The US economy slowed slightly during the first quarter due to a spell of extremely cold weather and a strengthening dollar, while the eurozone economy improved due to the ECB’s quantitative easing program and a weakening euro. It is important to take note of uncertainty in the eurozone stemming from worries over a potential Greek default, as well as weak economic indicators from China and Japan.
World GDP growth 7.0
(%)
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
US The US economic recovery faltered in the first quarter with GDP growing 0.2 percent (advanced estimates, annualized quarter-on-quarter), which was considerably lower than the 2.2 percent of the previous quarter. After recording positive growth in the previous month, industrial production returned to negative growth in March declining 0.6 percent month-on-month, due to lower production in the energy sector caused by falling oil prices as well as a strengthening US dollar. The ISM manufacturing index continued to decrease. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 58.1 (Aug 2014) → 56.1 (Sep) → 57.9 (Oct) → 57.6 (Nov) → 55.1 (Dec) → 53.5 (Jan 2015) → 52.9 (Feb) → 51.5 (Mar) → 51.5 (Apr)
Retail sales in March grew 0.9 percent month-on-month, increasing for the first time in four months, backed by improving consumer confidence and an end to sever cold weather. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (1966=100) 82.5 (Aug 2014) → 84.6 (Sep) → 86.9 (Oct) → 88.8 (Nov) → 93.6 (Dec) → 98.1 (Jan 2015) → 95.4 (Feb) → 93.0 (Mar) → 95.9 (Apr) Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 93.4 (Aug 2014) → 89.0 (Sep) → 94.1 (Oct) → 91.0 (Nov) → 93.1 (Dec) → 103.8 (Jan 2015) → 98.8 (Feb) → 101.3 (Mar) → 95.2 (Apr)
05
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
US GDP growth and industrial production 10
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
(%)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
The housing market showed signs of recovery, as housing prices in twenty major cities rose at the fastest rate in six months and existing home sales in March recorded the highest since September 2013. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %) 6.8 (Jul 2014) → 5.6 (Aug) → 4.8 (Sep) → 4.4 (Oct) → 4.3 (Nov) → 4.4 (Dec) → 4.5 (Jan 2015) → 5.0 (Feb) Existing home sales (m-o-m, %) 2.2 (Jun 2014) → 1.2 (Jul) → -1.4 (Aug) → 2.0 (Sep) → 1.2 (Oct) → -4.1 (Nov) → 2.4 (Dec) → -4.9 (Jan 2015) → 1.5 (Feb) → 6.1 (Mar)
In April, nonfarm payroll employment surged, adding 223,000 jobs compared with 85,000 jobs in the previous month, suggesting that the US economy will likely improve from the second quarter. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 5.4 percent. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 250 (Sep 2014) → 221 (Oct) → 423 (Nov) → 329 (Dec) → 201 (Jan 2015) → 266 (Feb) → 85 (Mar) → 223 (Apr)
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
(thousands)
(%)
12
600 10 400 200
8
0 6 -200 -400
4
-600 2 -800 -1,000
0
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Unemployment rate (right)
06
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP1 - Personal consumption expenditure - Nonresidential fixed investment - Residential fixed investment Industrial production Retail sales Existing home sales Unemployment rate² Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2012 Annual 2.3 1.8 7.2 13.5 3.8 4.9 8.9 8.1 2.1
Annual 2.2 2.4 3.0 11.9 2.9 3.9 9.0 7.4 1.5
2013 Q1 Q2 2.7 1.8 3.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 7.8 19.0 1.0 0.5 1.7 0.1 2.4 2.4 7.7 7.5 1.7 1.4
Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 4.5 3.5 2.4 -2.1 2.0 3.7 2.5 1.2 5.5 10.4 6.3 1.6 11.2 -8.5 2.5 -5.3 0.6 1.2 4.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 3.9 0.6 2.7 -6.3 -3.0 -5.1 7.2 7.0 6.2 6.6 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.4
2014 Q2 4.6 2.5 9.7 8.8 1.4 2.3 4.5 6.2 2.1
Q3 5.0 3.2 8.9 3.2 1.0 0.8 3.5 6.1 1.8
Q4 2.2 4.4 4.7 3.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 5.7 1.2
2015 Q1 Feb Mar 0.2 1.9 -3.4 1.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 -1.2 -0.5 0.9 -1.8 1.5 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
China The Chinese economy slowed down, growing 7.0 percent year-on-year in the first quarter compared with 7.3 percent in the previous quarter, and major economic indicators grew at a slower pace, including industrial production, retail sales and investment. In response to the economic slowdown, the People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks by 100 basis points to 4.20 percent, the steepest decrease since November 2008, and cut the base rate again by 0.25 percentage points to 5.11 percent. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 51.1 (Aug 2014) → 51.1 (Sep) → 50.8 (Oct) → 50.3 (Nov) → 50.1 (Dec) → 49.8 (Jan 2015) → 49.9 (Feb) → 50.1 (Mar) → 50.1 (Apr) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Real GDP Industrial production Fixed asset investment (accumulated) Retail sales Exports Consumer prices1 Producer prices1
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4 7.7 7.7 7.7 10.0 9.7 10.0 20.6 19.6 19.6 14.3 13.1 13.5 8.3 8.6 7.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.4
Q1 7.4 8.7 17.6 12.0 -3.5 2.3 -2.0
Q2 7.5 8.9 17.3 12.3 5.0 2.2 -1.5
2014 Q3 7.3 8.0 16.1 11.9 13.0 2.0 -1.3
Q4 7.3 7.6 15.7 11.7 8.6 1.5 -2.7
Dec 7.9 15.7 12.0 9.7 1.5 -3.3
Q1 7.0 6.4 13.5 10.6 4.7 1.2 -4.6
2015 Feb Mar 6.82 5.6 13.92 13.5 10.72 10.2 48.3 -15.0 1.4 1.4 -4.8 -4.6
1. Quarterly change: average of monthly change 2. Jan-Feb accumulated Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment 18
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
(%)
(%)
70
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
07
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
Japan In March, the Japanese economy saw major indicators show mixed signals, as exports improved considerably while industrial production and retail sales declined. Consumer prices increased slightly by 2.3 percent month-on-month (2.2 percent excluding fresh food). Recently, the BOJ adjusted its forecast for growth and prices downward for the 2015 fiscal year. Forecast adjustment for fiscal year 2015 Growth rate (%): 2.1 → 2.0 CPI excluding fresh food (%): 1.0 → 0.8 (Percentage change from previous period)
Real GDP Industrial production Retail sales Exports (y-o-y) Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q4 1.8 1.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.6 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.4 -2.7 9.5 17.4 -0.0 0.4 1.4
2014 Annual 0.0 2.1 1.7 4.8 2.7
Q1 1.3 2.3 3.8 6.6 1.5
Q2 -1.6 -3.1 -7.2 0.1 3.6
Q3 -0.7 -1.3 3.9 3.2 3.3
Q4 0.4 0.8 1.0 9.1 2.6
Dec 0.2 0.0 12.8 2.4
Q1 1.7 -2.1 9.0 2.3
2015 Feb -3.1 0.7 2.5 2.2
Mar -0.3 -1.9 8.5 2.3
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production 6
Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0
-5 -2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -6
-25
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
Eurozone Although the eurozone showed signs of recovery as economic indicators improved due to the ECB’s quantitative easing program and a weakening euro, downward risk factors continue to exist including worries over a possible Greek default. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.7 (Aug 2014) → 50.3 (Sep) → 50.6 (Oct) → 50.1 (Nov) → 50.6 (Dec) → 51.0 (Jan 2015) → 51.0 (Feb) → 52.2 (Mar) → 52.0 (Apr)
08
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual Q1 Real GDP
-0.7
-0.4
-0.4
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
-
-
0.9
0.3
2015 Feb Mar -
-
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.7
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.1
0.0
-0.3
0.4
0.6
-0.3
1.1
-
Retail sales
-1.7
-0.8
0.0
0.2
0.6
-0.4
1.3
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.1
-0.8
Exports (y-o-y)
7.7
1.1
1.2
1.8
0.3
1.0
2.3
1.0
0.6
2.9
4.4
8.3
-0.7
4.1
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.5
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-0.3
-0.1
Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production 3
Source: Eurostat
(%)
(%)
10 8
2
6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -10
-3 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
2. Private consumption Private consumption in the first quarter of 2015 rose 0.6 percent (advanced estimates of GDP) compared to the previous quarter and 1.5 percent compared to a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual Private consumption²
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q41
2015 Q11
1.9
1.9
-0.1
0.5
1.1
0.6
1.8
0.4
-0.4
0.8
0.5
0.6
-
-
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.2
-
2.6
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.5
(y-o-y) 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Retail sales in March fell 0.6 percent compared to the previous month as sales declined for both semi-durable goods (down 0.2%), such as clothing, and nondurable goods (down 2.1%), such as food and tobacco. Year-onyear, the index increased 2.8 percent.
09
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
Private consumption 12
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
Retail sales 20
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
2015.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q11
2015 Feb¹
Mar¹
0.8
0.4
-
0.2
-0.2
1.3
0.4
0.5
2.6
-0.6
Retail sales
-
-
(y-o-y)
2.5
0.7
0.5
1.1
1.7
2.4
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.7
5.4
2.8
- Durable goods²
5.4
0.3
-0.3
0.2
5.1
3.8
-0.2
1.8
1.3
5.3
-0.4
1.8
· Automobiles
2.4
2.1
2.1
-2.1
16.6
9.8
5.3
1.2
6.3
3.9
1.3
1.0
- Semi-durable goods³
-0.3
2.1
0.7
-0.4
-0.6
-1.4
-1.1
4.8
-1.7
-3.4
3.5
-0.2
- Nondurable goods4
2.2
0.4
1.5
0.8
0.8
-0.9
0.2
-0.7
1.0
-2.7
4.1
-2.1
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
10
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Retail sales by type 50
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Durable goods
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
Retail sales for April are expected to improve given strong automobile and gasoline sales. While domestic sales of automobiles and gasoline both grew, credit card use also increased by a considerable margin. (y-o-y, %)
2014 Sep 5.3 -6.3 -10.1 7.0 10.4
Credit card use Department store sales Large discount store sales Domestic sales of gasoline Domestic sales of cars
Oct 7.5 -2.2 -0.9 1.4 2.1
2015 Nov 5.3 -6.5 -4.7 -1.0 7.0
Dec 8.7 -0.9 -3.8 -0.4 27.2
Jan 3.1 -11.0 -18.3 7.3 3.9
Feb 10.0 6.6 24.5 12.1 -3.8
Mar 5.7 -5.7 -6.5 8.6 5.5
Apr 15.3 1.5 -0.2 8.7 2.8
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the first quarter of 2015 remained unchanged compared with the previous quarter and rose 5.7 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
Facility investment² (y-o-y) - Machinery - Transportation equipment
2012 Annual Annual¹ 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -2.3 -0.4 3.1
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2013 Q3 3.5 2.3 6.3 -3.5
Q4 4.2 11.6 2.3 9.1
Annual¹ 5.8 5.0 7.7
Q1 -1.4 7.2 -3.4 3.7
2014 Q2 1.3 7.7 0.4 3.6
Q3 0.2 4.2 2.0 -3.8
Q4 4.0 4.2 5.6 0.4
2015 Q1¹ 0.0 5.7 -
11
ECONOMIC BULLETIN โ ข may 2015
Facility investment 40
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
The facility investment index in March declined 3.9 percent month-on-month due to decreases in both machinery and transportation equipment investments. The index rose 6.6 percent year-on-year.
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Transportation equipment
Machinery
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Facility investment index
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4ยน
Q11
2015 Jan Feb1
Mar1 -3.9
-2.8
-0.8
5.2
-4.0
1.7
-0.9
8.6
-2.2
-7.7
3.4
-
-
-
7.5
6.7
1.5
5.4
7.6
13.7
3.1
6.6
- Machinery
-2.7
-2.1
3.9
-6.1
0.9
-0.8
11.7
-2.1
-2.8
-1.7
-1.8
- Transportation equipment
-3.0
2.8
8.8
1.6
3.6
-1.4
1.5
-2.4
-19.8
19.2
-10.1
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
12
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Facility investment is projected to improve, taking into account a recovery in business sentiment. However, the increase may be limited by a fall in the average manufacturing operation ratio. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 75 (Aug 2014) → 74 (Sep) → 78 (Oct) → 74 (Nov) → 75 (Dec) → 77 (Jan 2015) → 73 (Feb) → 82 (Mar) → 80 (Apr) → 82 (May)
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
(trillion won)
(y-o-y, %)
9
70 60 50
8
40 30
7
20
6
10 0
5
-10
4
-20 -30
3
-40
2
-50
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Domestic machinery orders (q-o-q, m-o-m) -Public -Private Machinery imports Average manufacturing operation ratio Facility investment adjustment pressure²
2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q1 -13.9 6.6 14.8 18.5 -2.0 -11.0 20.5 94.2 184.6 -14.2 5.1 4.8 4.7 -3.0 1.1 5.8 2.5 78.6 76.5 76.1 77.1 -0.7 -0.9 -1.5 -0.7
2014 Q2 4.0 -11.3 -45.0 9.1 11.9 76.1 -1.1
Q3 49.4 45.2 418.5 7.7 1.7 76.0 -0.5
Q4 -6.3 -26.0 -27.6 -2.0 7.0 75.1 -3.5
2015 Jan Feb¹ 32.9 1.5 31.9 -17.0 32.0 17.6 33.0 0.4 14.0 3.1 74.1 75.1 0.3 -6.5
Q1¹ -0.1 8.8 -67.1 15.0 8.4 74.3 -2.7
Mar¹ -20.2 22.9 -85.8 12.8 8.8 73.6 -1.9
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advanced estimates of GDP) in the first quarter of 2015 rose 7.5 percent quarter-onquarter and 0.7 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
Construction investment² (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
2012 Annual Annual¹ -3.9 5.5 -1.6 11.2 -7.1 -2.5
2013 Q3 -0.8 7.4 0.2 -2.5
Q4 -4.8 3.5 -3.3 -7.2
Annual¹ 1.0 4.4 -4.4
Q1 5.3 4.1 3.2 8.9
2014 Q2 0.5 0.2 3.1 -3.8
Q3 0.9 2.3 2.4 -1.8
Q4 -7.8 -1.5 -7.3 -8.8
2015 Q1¹ 7.5 0.7 -
13
ECONOMIC BULLETIN โ ข may 2015
Construction investment
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
(%) 10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
The value of construction completed (constant) in March fell 6.8 percent month-on-month, as both building construction and civil engineering works decreased. The index declined 1.4 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Construction completed (constant)
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q4ยน
Q1ยน
2015 Jan Feb1
Marยน
-5.0
10.2
-0.8
1.0
-0.4
-2.7
-3.9
4.9
4.3
4.8
-6.8
-
-
-
6.6
0.1
-1.9
-5.9
-1.9
-4.4
0.2
-1.4
- Building construction
-6.6
15.1
7.8
4.8
2.0
-3.8
-3.7
5.1
5.7
4.1
-6.4
- Civil engineering works
-3.0
4.4
-12.3
-4.6
-4.1
-0.8
-4.2
4.5
2.0
5.9
-7.5
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
Building construction
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
Residential buildings
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Civil engineering works
14
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Construction investment is expected to rise, considering a fall in the number of unsold houses and an increase in new apartment sales. Unsold houses (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 50 (Jun 2014) → 51 (Jul) → 45 (Aug) → 39 (Sep) → 40 (Oct) → 40 (Nov) → 40 (Dec) → 37 (Jan 2015) → 34 (Feb) → 29 (Mar) New apartment sales (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 29 (Jun 2014) → 18 (Jul) → 23 (Aug) → 33 (Sep) → 64 (Oct) → 43 (Nov) → 17 (Dec) → 15 (Jan 2015) → 9 (Feb) → 33 (Mar) → 531 (Apr) 1. Estimate (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-6.2
-12.9
15.3
Q1
2014 Q2
Q3
Q41
Q11
2015 Jan Feb1
Mar1
15.5
25.4
42.8
-7.5
52.9
30.5
-3.2
141.7
-
-
-
-5.1
12.4
22.0
-29.0
48.7
37.6
-16.5
68.3
- Building construction
-4.7
-10.2
24.5
11.2
45.6
61.8
-5.0
83.8
75.1
3.0
167.1
- Civil engineering works
-9.1
-18.2
-4.4
24.0
-11.5
-6.2
-13.1
-1.5
-39.1
-12.2
75.9
Building permits²
-0.5
-7.3
11.2
18.4
21.6
14.7
-4.6
11.0
36.8
-20.6
28.3
1. Preliminary 2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 300 (y-o-y, %) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Construction orders
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Building permit area
5. Exports and Imports Exports in April declined 8.1 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $46.22 billion. Exports continued to decline in April after falling 4.3 percent in March, on account of decreases in vessel exports and shipments to the US, which were on the rise in the first quarter of 2015.
15
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
By item, almost all exports fell due to a drop in prices, with an exception of semiconductor exports. By region, shipments to most regions including the US posted a fall, while shipments to the Middle East increased. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 7.5 (semiconductors), -5.2 (mobile phones), -5.2 (steel), -7.9 (vessels), -20.1 (petrochemicals), -43.3 (petroleum products) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 1.4 (Middle East), -2.7 (US), -5.2 (China), -11.4 (Latin America), -11.9 (EU), -12.6 (Japan), -19.8 (ASEAN countries)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was down 8.1 percent year-on-year, posting US $1.93 billion in April. Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 4.0 (Aug 2014) → 1.2 (Sep) → 2.3 (Oct) → 1.6 (Nov) → -1.2 (Dec) → -7.3 (Jan 2015) → 9.4 (Feb) → -8.3 (Mar) → -8.1 (Apr) (US $ billion)
2013
2014
2015
Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 559.63 572.66 137.53 145.67 141.76 147.70 2.1 2.3 1.6 3.2 3.9 0.9 2.05 2.11 2.07 2.19 2.07 2.13
Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
Apr 50.27 8.9 2.09
Q1 133.57 -2.9 2.01
Feb 41.48 -3.3 2.18
Mar 46.96 -4.3 1.96
Apr1 46.22 -8.1 1.93
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Exports by item 160 140
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
(y-o-y, %)
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Export growth rate
2008.1
Semiconductors
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Automobiles
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Steel
Imports in April fell 17.8 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $37.73 billion. Commodity imports decreased for the seventh consecutive month in April due to low oil prices, while imports of capital goods and consumer goods fell in April. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -28.0 (commodities), -1.6 (capital goods), -3.8 (machinery), -0.9 (consumer goods)
16
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(US $ billion)
2013 Imports
2014
2015
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Apr
Q1
Feb
Mar
Apr1
515.59
525.51
132.37
130.96
132.84
129.35
45.87
111.98
33.81
38.58
37.73
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
1.9
2.0
3.3
5.4
-2.8
5.1
-15.4
-19.6
-15.3
-17.8
Average daily imports
1.89
1.94
1.99
1.97
1.94
1.86
1.91
1.68
1.78
1.61
1.57
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by item
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
100 80
(y-o-y, %)
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Import growth rate
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Commodities
Exports and imports
2015.1
Capital goods
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
60 (US $ billion) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2004.1
2005.1
Trade balance
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Exports
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Imports
The trade balance (preliminary) in April remained in the black for the 39th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US $8.49 billion.
17
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
(US $ billion)
2013 Annual 44.05
Trade balance
2014 Annual 47.15
Q1 5.17
Q2 14.72
2015 Q3 8.92
Q4 18.35
Apr 4.39
Q1 21.59
Feb 7.67
Mar 8.38
Apr1 8.49
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in March after a surge in February, led by weak electronic parts and primary metals. Compared to the same period of the previous year, the index fell 0.1 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of processed metals (up 13.1%), other transportation equipment (up 14.0%) and semiconductors (up 3.1%) rose, while production of electronic parts (down 7.7%), primary metals (down 4.3%) and communications equipment (down 14.7%) decreased. Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 16.6%), mechanical equipment (up 4.8%) and processed metals (up 3.1%) rose, while electronic parts (down 12.1%), communications equipment (down 31.9%) and automobiles (down 2.3%) declined.
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 1.1 percentage points month-on-month to 123.9 percent as inventories rose 0.8 percent and shipments fell 0.1 percent. Inventories of mechanical equipment (up 4.9%), semiconductors (up 4.7%) and automobiles (up 2.0%) rose, while communications equipment (down 15.1%), groceries (down 2.5%) and leather & shoes (down 9.4%) declined.
18
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Shipments of processed metals (up 12.1%), other transportation equipment (up 13.7%) and electrical equipment (up 2.8%) rose, while refined petroleum (down 4.7%), mechanical equipment (down 3.5%) and electronic parts (down 2.4%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 1.5 percentage points month-on-month to 73.6 percent.
Shipment and inventory 10 8
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(m-o-m, %)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Shipment growth
2014.1
2015.1
Inventory growth
Average manufacturing operation ratio
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
100 (%) 90
80
70
60
50 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Mining and manufacturing production will likely improve in April due to IT industries releasing new products. However, the increase may be limited because some petrochemical companies will carry out regular maintenance.
19
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Annual Annual
Q1
Mining (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
(y-o-y)
0.7
0.0
Manufacturing (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
0.7
0.1
0.7
Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity²
-0.3
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
Q1¹
2015 Jan¹ Feb¹ Mar¹ -3.7
2.3
-0.4
-0.6
0.1
-0.9
3.4
-0.1
0.7
0.5
1.2
-1.9
1.1
-1.0
1.8
-5.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.7
0.1
-1.0
3.4
-0.2
-3.8
2.4
-0.6
0.4
1.2
-1.9
1.1
-1.3
1.6
-5.2
-0.4
0.7
0.0
-0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
2.1
-0.7
-3.2
0.5
-0.1
-0.8
0.3
-0.6
-0.1
-0.8
-0.8
1.6
0.4
-2.6
2.8
-1.2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
1.1
2.8
-2.2
-3.9
-2.2
1.2
Inventory³
4.4
-1.8
-0.3
0.6
0.9
-2.2
-0.4
3.4
-0.1
2.7
0.8
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) indicators Production capacity (y-o-y)
76.5
76.1
77.1
76.1
76.0
75.1
76.5
74.3
74.1
75.1
73.6
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.5
- Domestic consumption - Exports
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period
7. Service sector activity Service output in March fell 0.4 percent month-on-month, as gains in real estate & renting and publishing & communication services were offset by declines in transportation services and professional, scientific & technical services. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output rose 3.1 percent. Wholesale & retail (down 0.7%, m-o-m) and transportation services (down 1.8%, m-o-m) were down after a rise in February, while professional, scientific & technical services (down 3.4%, m-o-m) declined for the fifth month in a row. Real estate & renting (up 4.2%, m-o-m) and business services (up 2.2%, m-o-m) continued to rise.
Service sector activity
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
20 (%) 15
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
20
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 2013 Weight Annual Annual Q4 Service activity index
Annual
2014 Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
2015 Q11 Feb1 Mar1
100.0
1.6
1.5
0.8
2.2
0.7
0.1
0.9
1.0
0.5
21.6
0.8
0.1
0.8
-0.2
-0.4 -0.5
0.1
0.1
0.6
3.4 -0.7
- Transportation services
8.5
1.2
1.0
-0.3
1.7
0.8
0.6
2.6
0.2
0.7 -1.8
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2
-1.2
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.2 -1.5
- Publishing & communications services
8.4
3.0
2.2
3.0
1.7
-1.2
0.9 -0.2
0.1 -2.7 -2.4
14.7
2.8
0.5
0.5
5.2
2.5
1.2
2.1
2.9
- Real estate & renting
5.3
-4.8
2.5
2.7
6.2
0.2
4.4
0.0
3.6 -1.1
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
3.7
3.3
0.4
2.4
0.1
2.6 -1.1
- Business services
3.3
3.5
2.1
0.4
2.4
1.5 -0.6
0.3
1.0
1.9
4.4
- Education services
10.9
0.9
0.8
0.3
1.3
1.6 -1.9
1.1
0.0
0.9
0.9 -0.6
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
6.7
5.2
1.7
6.3
1.4
1.4
2.7
2.0
1.4 -0.9
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.8
-0.7
-0.4
-1.1
0.0 -4.7
- Membership organizations & personal services - Sewerage & waste management
3.6
-1.4
6.1
1.7
-0.7
-1.0
0.6
-0.6
-0.4
1.2
1.0
0.2 -1.4
- Wholesale & retail
- Financial & insurance services
0.7
1.0
1.5 -0.4
2.6 -1.2 -0.3 -0.1 -1.2
1.6
3.0
2.7 -0.3 0.8
4.2
2.0 -3.2 -1.5 -3.4
6.1 -2.1
1.1 -1.0
2.5
2.2
2.6 -2.8 -2.1
0.5
1.7
5.1 -2.3
1.1
1.8
2.8 -2.8
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Wholesale & retail
Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
20 (%) 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)
10
2015.1
Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)
March 2015 service output by business 12
2014.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(y-o-y, %) Professional, scientific & technical services
8 Transportation services
6 4 Total index 2
Publishing & communications services
Education services
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
Sewerage & waste management
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
Wholesale & retail Hotels & restaurants
Real estate & renting
Financial & insurance services
Business services
Health & social welfare services
Membership organizations & personal services
21
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
Financial & insurance services and real estate & renting will improve in April amid rising stock and housing transactions. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 6.0 (Jul 2014) → 6.3 (Aug) → 6.6 (Sep) → 6.8 (Oct) → 6.7 (Nov) → 6.0 (Dec) → 7.2 (Jan 2015) → 7.5 (Feb) → 8.1 (Mar) → 10.9 (Apr)
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in March increased by 338,000 from a year earlier to 25,501,000 and the employment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 59.5 percent. By industry, services and manufacturing continued to lead employment growth. By employment status, permanent workers continued to lead employment growth, while temporary and daily workers rose at a slower pace and self-employed workers continued to decline.
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Number of employed (millions)
Q4 Annual Q1
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Mar
Q1
2015 Feb Mar
24.24 24.68 25.07 25.41 25.35 25.60 24.91 25.79 25.93 25.77 25.16 25.27 25.20 25.50
Employment rate (%)
59.1 59.4 59.5 60.3 60.0 60.2 58.8 60.8 60.9 60.4 59.4 59.0 58.8 59.5
(Seasonally adjusted)
59.1 59.4 59.5 59.7 59.9 60.2 60.4 59.9 60.3 60.3 60.2 60.5 60.7 60.3
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
415
437
386
421
541
533
729
464
517
422
649
354
376
338
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
440
451
394
402
556
601
717
518
638
531
690
441
463
408
- Manufacturing
63
14
79
26
49
146
123
136
194
129
143
139
159
116
- Construction
-2
22
-19
4
-9
42
27
12
57
72
5
72
68
79
- Services
386
416
318
354
507
424
570
387
403
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-25
-14
-8
19
-15
-68
12
- Wage workers
427
315
483
526
604
548
· Permanent workers
575
436
615
632
637
· Temporary workers
-78
-2
-96
-65
2
· Daily workers
-70 -120
-37
-42
-11
121
-97 -105
- Nonwage workers · Self-employed workers
336
551
222
231
196
-54 -121 -109
-41
-87
-87
-70
711
485
519
476
654
442
465
402
443
606
478
333
355
524
355
383
331
140
74
118
226
141
157
82
62
43
-35
-35
31 -111
-40
-20
-27
4
20
28
-63
-15
19
-3
-54
-5
-88
-89
-64
-22
1
124
-67
-83
-54
1
-7
-14
19
7
-18
-49
-59
-19
- Male
238
234
186
179
262
266
373
228
268
196
285
141
144
166
- Female
177
203
200
242
279
267
357
236
249
226
364
213
232
172
- 15 to 29
-35
-36
-50
-41
46
77
97
53
102
56
69
32
30
39
- 30 to 39
-47
-31
-21
-34
-42
-21
-6
-42
-7
-29
-24
-1
18
-3
- 40 to 49
57
11
22
30
53
38
99
34
15
4
97
-47
-48
-67
- 50 to 59
291
270
254
279
285
239
323
227
215
190
292
177
183
158
- 60 or more
149
222
181
187
200
200
218
192
192
201
215
192
193
210
Source: Statistics Korea
22
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Number of persons employed and employment growth 1,000
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(thousands)
27
(millions)
800
26
600 25 400 24 200 23
0
22
-200
21
-400 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 64
(%)
63 62 61 60 59 58 57 56 55 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Original data
Employment by industry
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
100
(%)
80
60
69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.5 69.8 70.8 71.5 71.4
40 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 20 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.8 4.2 3.9 4.1 2012.7 8 9 10 11 12 2013.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2015.1 2
Services
Construction
Manufacturing
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
23
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) (%) 100 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.0 4.1
80
23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.2 22.1 21.9 21.5 21.5 21.5 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4
60
20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.4
40
20
44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 48.5 49.0 49.0
0 2012.7 8
9
10
11 12 2013.1 2
Unpaid family workers
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Self-employed workers
10
11 12 2014.1 2
3
Daily workers
4
5
6
7
8
9
Temporary workers
10
11 12 2015.1 2
Regular workers
The number of unemployed persons in March increased by 52,000 year-on-year to 1,076,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.0 percent. The unemployment rate declined among those in their 30s or over 60, but the rate rose in the other age groups.
Unemployment rate 6
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
The economically inactive population in March was up 106,000 from a year earlier to 16,300,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 62.0 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to education (down 153,000, y-o-y) and housework (down 56,000, y-o-y) decreased, while those due to rest (up 181,000, y-o-y) and childcare (up 28,000, y-o-y) increased.
24
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
Number of unemployed (thousands) Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands) - Male
855
820
807
777
733
-65
-35
-13
7
-48
-26
-6
11
2014 Q2 Q3
2015 Feb
Q4
Mar
Q1
1,024 1,089 1,203 1,076
Mar
937 1,031 977
884
854
11
137
107
121
141
58
24
52
-7
49
37
59
74
25
15
11
125 165 40
62
- Female
-17
-9
-7
-4
18
80
84 103
70
63
67
32
10
41
Unemployment rate (%)
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
3.5
4.0
3.3
3.2
3.9
4.1
4.6
4.0
(Seasonally adjusted) -15 to 29
3.4
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.7
7.6
7.5
8.0
7.9
7.9
9.0
9.8
9.4
8.6
8.3
9.9
10.3
11.1
10.7
3.7
- 30 to 39
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.0
2.8
3.4
3.1
3.3
3.3
- 40 to 49
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
- 50 to 59 - 60 or more
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.5
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.2
1.4
2.3
4.4
1.9
1.5
1.6
3.0
4.1
5.6
2.8
Source: Statistics Korea
Labor force participation rate 65
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
(%)
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 57 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Original data
2015.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Economically inactive population (millions)
2014.1
Q4 Annual Q1
2014 Q2 Q3
Q4
Mar
Q1
2015 Feb Mar
15.95 16.08 16.22 15.98 16.17 15.98 16.40 15.69 15.76 16.07 16.19 16.47 16.43 16.30
Labor force participation rate (%) 61.1 61.3 61.5 62.1 61.7 62.4 61.3 63.1 63.0 62.4 61.8 61.5 61.6 62.0 (Seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands) - Childcare
61.1 61.3 61.5 61.6 61.7 62.4 62.6 62.2 62.5 62.4 62.4 62.8 63.1 62.6 112
128
141
78
-5
-2
1
9
-91 -246 -433 -226 -222 -101 -372
72
83
106
-14
-55
41
24
28
-67 -202
-91
-87
-56
-39
-29
-57
-41 -99
- Housework
101
123
-3
-80 -112 -131 -230 -127
- Education
-51
-12
77
88
- Old age - Rest
-45
148
54
32
182
-53
-7
12
Source: Statistics Korea
-44
-81
-76
-68 -109
21
93
81
113
21
-92 -197
-90
-31 -72
-61 -141 -142 -153
91
89
96
68
80
65
-65
-15 -174
154
143
181
25
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI rose 4.2 percent in April, from 2,041 points to 2,127 points. The KOSPI advanced thanks to ample global liquidity and favorable earnings reports, but rose at a slower pace later in the month as investment sentiment weakened following steep gains.
Stock prices 2,200 2,000
(monthly average)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
KOSPI
2015.1
KOSDAQ
(Closing rate)
Mar 2015
KOSPI Apr 2015
Change1
Mar 2015
KOSDAQ Apr 2015
Change1
Stock price index (points)
2,041.0
2,127.2
86.2 (4.2%)
650.5
689.0
38.5 (5.9%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,272.3
1,327.3
55.0 (4.3%)
173.6
185.5
11.9 (6.9%)
5.1
6.6
1.5 (29.4%)
3.0
4.3
1.3 (43.3%)
34.0
34.0
0.0 (0.0%)
10.5
10.5
0.0 (0.0%)
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p) 1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate in April fell 37.1 won to 1,072.4 won from 1,109.5 won at the end of March due to the weakening dollar, continuing current account surplus in Korea, and foreign investment in Korean shares. The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell from 924.0 won in March to 904.4 won in April as the BOJ’s accommodative monetary policy continued and also as the dollar-won exchange rate fell by a relatively wider margin.
26
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Foreign exchange rates 1,800
(month-end, \)
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dollar-Won
2015.1
100 Yen-Won
(Closing rate)
Dollar-Won 100 Yen-Won
2009 Dec 1,164.5 1,264.5
2010 Dec 1,134.8 1,393.6
2011 Dec 1,151.8 1,481.2
2012 Dec 1,070.6 1,238.3
2013 Dec 1,055.4 1,002.3
2014 Dec 1,099.3 913.0
Mar 1,109.5 924.0
2015 Apr 1,072.4 904.4
Change1 2.5 1.0
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
9.3 Bond market 3-year Treasury bond yields were up from 1.72 percent in March to 1.84 percent in April. Treasury bond yields rose as demand for safe assets slowed amid rising international oil prices and recovering economies, and also as expectations for a rate cut by the BOK weakened.
Interest rates 10
Source: The Bank of Korea
(monthly average, yearly, %)
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
27
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
(Closing rate, %)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Dec
2015 Feb
Mar
Apr
Call rate (1 day)
2.01
2.51
3.29
2.77
2.52
2.03
1.99
1.74
1.74
-
CD (91 days)
2.88
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.66
2.13
2.10
1.85
1.80
-5
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.44
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.86
2.10
2.03
1.72
1.84
12
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.56
4.27
4.21
3.29
3.29
2.43
2.29
1.99
2.08
9
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.98
4.08
3.46
2.97
3.23
2.28
2.10
1.80
2.04
24
Change1
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
9.4 Money supply & money market M2 (monthly average) in February rose 8.0 percent from a year earlier. Money supply in the government sector grew at a slower pace, but private sector credit growth accelerated, led by bank loans, and money supply in the overseas sector rose due to the current account surplus.
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Reserve money
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
M1
2015.1
Lf
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2009 Annual
2010 Annual
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
2013 Annual
M1²
16.3
M2
10.3
Lf ³
7.9
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
10.9
13.4
12.5
14.3
592.7
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
6.6
8.1
8.0
8.0
2,109.8
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
7.0
8.4
8.4
5.6
2,876.6
1. Balance at end February 2015, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
2014 Annual Dec
Jan
2015 Feb
Feb1
28
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Bank deposit growth slowed in March, led by instant access deposits (18.4 trillion won → 2.7 trillion won), due to quarter-end corporate tax payments. Asset management company (AMC) deposits grew at a slower pace. Despite corporate tax payments, money market funds (MMF) (5.0 trillion won → 1.8 trillion won) rose, as falling short-term market rates increased demand for MMFs.
Deposits in financial institutions 60
Source: The Bank of Korea
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
2015 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Mar1
Bank deposits
54.8
36.9
58.9
37.0
41.0
115.4
52.0
-17.6
9.5
5.7
1,288.3
AMC deposits
-27.6
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
17.7
47.0
-8.7
14.8
11.2
2.1
410.0
1. Balance at end March 2015
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in March posted a surplus of US $10.39 billion, staying in the black for 37 consecutive months. The goods account surplus rose from US $7.32 billion in February to US $11.21 billion in March, as exports improved month-on-month. Goods export growth (y-o-y, %) -15.4 (Feb 2015) → -8.4 (Mar 2015) Goods import growth (y-o-y, %) -21.9 (Feb 2015) → -16.8 (Mar 2015)
29
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
Current account balance 14
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Services account
Goods account
2015.1
Current account
Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus expanded from US $7.97 billion to US $11.21 billion as imports declined by a greater margin than exports. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -15.3 (total), -28.1 (commodities), 3.3 (capital goods), 5.7 (consumer goods) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) -4.3 (total), -12.4 (mobile phones), 2.9 (semiconductors), -4.5 (steel), -32.7 (petroleum products), -6.8 (automobiles)
The services account deficit fell from US $2.06 billion to US $0.97 billion, due to improvements in the intellectual property rights and travel accounts. Services account (US $ billion, February → March) -0.41 → -0.38 (manufacturing), 0.25 → -0.05 (transportation), -0.50 → -0.36 (travel), 0.58 → 0.80 (construction), -1.32 → -0.28 (intellectual property rights), -0.72 → -0.76 (other businesses)
The primary income account surplus fell from US $1.40 billion to US $0.53 billion due to a rise in dividend payments by corporations that close books in December, while the secondary income account deficit rose from US $0.22 billion to US $0.38 billion. (US $ billion)
2013 Annual Annual
2014 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Mar
Q1
7.32
23.42
2015 Jan Feb
Mar1
6.58
6.44
10.39
Current account
81.15
89.22
15.19
24.24
22.57
27.23
- Goods balance
82.78
92.69
17.75
26.43
21.68
26.84
7.97
25.22
6.69
7.32
11.21
- Services balance
-6.50
-8.16
-3.50
-1.84
-0.90
-1.92
-0.61
-5.41
-2.38
-2.06
-0.97
- Primary income balance
9.06
10.20
1.91
1.33
3.14
3.82
0.32
4.83
2.90
1.40
0.53
- Secondary income balance
-4.19
-5.50
-0.96
-1.68
-1.35
-1.51
-0.36
-1.22
-0.62
-0.22
-0.38
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
30
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Travel balance
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
4 (US $ billion) 3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Travel balance
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Travel revenue
2015.1
Travel payment
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in March posted a net outflow of US $11.03 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion) -7.81 (Aug 2014) → -8.76 (Sep) → -6.80 (Oct) → -9.92 (Nov) → -9.80 (Dec) → -8.25 (Jan 2015) → -5.54 (Feb) → -11.03 (Mar)
FDI net outflows increased from US $1.99 billion to US $2.39 billion. Net outflows of portfolio investment decreased from US $3.00 billion to US $1.21 billion as foreign investment in Korean shares surged. Net inflows of financial derivatives investment rose from US $0.03 billion to US $0.09 billion, while net outflows of other investment went up from US $0.37 billion to US $4.62 billion as financial institutions’ loans switched to a net outflow. The current account is expected to continue posting a surplus in April, considering the trade surplus in April (US $8.49 billion).
Capital & financial account balance 15
Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
(US $ billion)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Portfolio investment
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Financial derivatives
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Capital & financial account
31
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent year-on-year in April.
Consumer price inflation 7
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
2014.1
2015.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
Consumer price inflation
(%)
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2014 Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2015 Feb Mar
Month-on-Month
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
Year-on-Year
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.4
0.4
Apr
Source: Statistics Korea
Prices were affected mostly by supply-side factors such as falling international oil prices. Declines in oil prices (down 20.9%) and public gas fees (down 5.9% in January, down 10.1% in March) pushed down consumer price inflation in April by 1.4 percentage points. Declines in agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices (down 0.5%), caused by favorable weather conditions and stable supply, lowered April inflation by 0.04 percentage points.
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Agricultural, livestock & Manufactured Public Housing Public Personal Total Agricultural products fishery Oil products utilities rents services services products products Year-on-Year (%)
0.4
-0.5
-1.4
-0.5
-20.9
-5.9
2.3
0.5
1.9
Contribution (%p)
-
-0.04
-0.05
-0.16
-1.10
-0.31
0.22
0.08
0.59
32
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Consumer prices for basic necessities fell 0.7 percent year-on-year due to falling gasoline, diesel and gas prices. Fresh food prices declined 0.9 percent year-on-year, led by fruits (down 12.0%).
Prices 16
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
(y‐o‐y, %)
13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Consumer price inflation
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Core inflation
2014.1
2015.1
Producer price inflation
(y-o-y, %)
Oct
2014 Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2015 Mar
Apr
Consumer prices for basic necessities
0.7
0.7
0.3
-0.3
-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
Fresh food prices
-6.6
-5.2
-2.8
-2.1
-1.1
-2.0
-0.9
Source: Statistics Korea
Core inflation stayed in the two percent range. Consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 2.3 percent year-on-year, and consumer prices excluding oil and agrilcultural products rose 2.0 percent. (y-o-y, %)
Oct
2014 Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
1.6
1.3
1.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products
1.8
1.6
1.6
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
Source: Statistics Korea
The expected annual inflation remained flat at 2.5 percent. Expected inflation (%, Bank of Korea) 2.6 (Dec 2014) → 2.6 (Jan 2015) → 2.6 (Feb) → 2.5 (Mar) → 2.5 (Apr) Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -13.0 (Dec 2014) → -19.4 (Jan 2014) → -17.8 (Feb) → -17.1 (Mar)
2015
33
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices rose in April as geopolitical risks in the Middle East escalated and overproduction concerns softened. Dubai crude prices rose due to declining crude oil inventories in the US and geopolitical risks such as the civil war in Yemen. Crude oil inventories in the US fell for the first time since the fifth week of January, reaching 487 million barrels in the fifth week of April, down 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. Dubai crude ($/barrel) 53.8 (1st week Apr) → 54.5 (2nd week) → 57.5 (3rd week) → 59.3 (4th week) → 62.0 (5th week) (US $/barrel, period average)
Dubai crude Brent crude WTI crude
2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual 109.0 105.2 96.6 111.7 108.7 99.1 94.2 98.0 93.1
Q1 104.4 108.1 98.7
2014 Q2 106.1 109.7 103.0
Q3 101.6 102.7 97.2
Q4 74.6 76.7 73.4
Jan 45.8 49.7 47.3
2015 Feb Mar 55.7 54.7 58.8 56.9 50.7 47.9
Apr 57.7 61.1 54.6
Source: Korea PDS
International oil prices 160
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai crude
2015.1
WTI
Domestic gasoline prices declined in April as the fall in international oil prices was reflected with a time lag, but started to rise again towards the end of the month due to rising international oil prices. Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,510.6 (1st week Apr) → 1,508.3 (2nd week) → 1,505.8 (3rd week) → 1,505.8 (4th week) → 1,509.3 (5th week) (Won/liter, period average)
Gasoline prices Diesel prices
2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr 1,985.8 1,924.5 1,827.6 1,882.6 1,868.6 1,837.6 1,721.1 1,504.8 1,439.1 1,507.7 1,507.4 1,806.3 1,729.6 1,637.0 1,699.9 1,680.0 1,641.4 1,526.7 1,330.5 1,277.1 1,326.8 1,320.2
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
34
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
160
(thousand won/B)
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40 20
20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
International grain prices declined in April, led by corn and wheat, due to favorable weather conditions and a higher forecast for global grain inventories. The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2014-2015 global grain inventories from 429 million tons to 438 million tons. International grain price increases in April (m-o-m, %) corn (-2.3), wheat (-1.3), soybeans (-0.7)
Nonferrous metal prices rose due to concerns over declining output, as production was disrupted in chile’s Atacama due to floods and Zambia’s copperbelt due to blackouts‚ as well as expectations of economic stimulus measures in China. Nonferrous metal price increases in April (m-o-m, %) zinc (8.8), aluminum (2.5), copper (1.7)
International commodity prices
Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index)
* CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 4000
470 430 390
3000
350 310
2000
270 230
1000
190 0
150 2004.1
CRB (left)
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Reuters index (right)
35
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
(Period average)
2012 Annual
2013 Annual
Annual
3,006
2,774
2,523
Reuters Index1 (sep 18,1931=100)
Q1
2014 Q2
2015 Q3
Q4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2,600
2,609
2,491
2,397
2,377
2,351
2,374
2,389
1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Apartment prices rose 0.4 percent month-on-month nationwide in April. Apartment price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.6%), which includes Seoul (up 0.5%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.6%). Apartment price growth in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area also accelerated (up 0.3%). Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Apartment price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %) Busan (0.4), Daegu (0.9), Gwangju (1.1), Daejeon (0.0), Ulsan (0.3)
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
2014 Oct Nov
Dec Annual Jan
2015 Feb
Mar
Apr
Nationwide
1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
1.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
1.3
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.5
Gangnam¹
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
1.4
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
Gangbuk²
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
1.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month nationwide in April. Rental prices rose 0.9 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and 0.3 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangdong (2.1), Gangnam (1.6), Seocho (1.6), Songpa (1.0), Nowon (1.6)
36
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Apartment sales prices by region 3
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(m‐o‐m, %)
2
1
0
-1 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
Nationwide
7
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2014.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov Dec Annual Jan Feb Nationwide
7.1
12.3
2015.1
3.5
4.7
3.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.3
0.3
Mar
Apr
0.5
0.6
Seoul metropolitan area
6.3
11.0
2.1
6.2
4.7
0.4
0.4
0.3
2.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.9
Seoul
6.4
10.8
2.1
6.6
3.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
2.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.8
Gangnam¹
7.6
11.1
2.4
6.7
3.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
2.7
0.4
0.6
0.7
1.0
Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
5.1
10.6
1.8
6.4
3.8
0.4
0.3
0.2
1.7
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
2.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3
(m-o-m, %)
2
1
0
-1
-2 2009.1
Nationwide
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Apartment sales transactions in April rose 7.7 percent from 111,869 transactions in the previous month to 120,488 transactions, and were up 29.3 percent from a year earlier (93,208).
37
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
Monthly apartment transaction volume
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
160 (thousands) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
Nationwide
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2014.1
7
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
Apartment sales transactions
(Thousands)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Nationwide
67
82
61
71
79
90
93
78
74
77
76
87 109 91
91
79
79 112 120
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
12.2 Land market Land prices rose 0.19 percent month-on-month nationwide in March. Land price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.17%), which includes Seoul (up 0.21%) and Incheon (up 0.13%). Land price increase in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.13 (Aug 2014) → 0.19 (Sep) → 0.20 (Oct) → 0.14 (Nov) → 0.14 (Dec) → 0.14 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.17 (Mar)
Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4 Annual Q1
2015 Jan
Feb
Mar
Nationwide
0.96 1.05
1.17
0.96
1.14 0.46 1.96 0.45 0.48 0.49 0.53
0.48 0.48 0.14 0.15 0.19
Seoul
1.40 0.53
0.97
0.38
1.21 0.61 2.66 0.69 0.59 0.69 0.67
0.57 0.57 0.17 0.18 0.21
Gyeonggi
1.22 1.49
1.47
1.04
0.91 0.34 1.24 0.26 0.37 0.27 0.33
0.35 0.35 0.11 0.11 0.13
Incheon
1.99 1.43
0.66
0.46
0.87 0.23 1.35 0.37 0.25 0.32 0.40
0.37 0.37 0.12 0.12 0.13
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
38
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
Land price growth also accelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.22%), which include Busan (up 0.24%) and Daegu (up 0.33%). Land price increase in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (Aug 2014) → 0.18 (Sep) → 0.20 (Oct) → 0.18 (Nov) → 0.20 (Dec) → 0.15 (Jan 2015) → 0.15 (Feb) → 0.22 (Mar)
Land prices by region 18 15
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(%)
12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
National average
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Metropolitan city
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
City
2013
2014
County
There were 278,000 land transactions in March, up 40.0 percent from the previous month and up 22.4 percent from 227,000 a year earlier. Land transactions rose nationwide, led by Seoul (up 58.6%, m-o-m), Incheon (up 55.6%, m-o-m), Daegu (up 37.3%, m-o-m), Sejong (up 75.5%, m-o-m), North Jeolla Province (up 47.2%, m-o-m) and North Gyeongsang Province (up 41.4%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 35.5 percent of the total land transactions, rose 42.1 percent month-on-month to 99,000 and was up 11.8 percent from 88,000 a year earlier.
Land transaction volume 500,000
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2004.1
2005.1
Seoul metropolitan area
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
39
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
Land transactions
(Land lots, thousands)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Nationwide 187 208 170 187 220 227 233 207 199 219 204 214 258 228 257 219 199 278 Seoul 16 18 13 17 22 24 22 18 18 21 21 23 29 25 23 20 21 33 Gyeonggi 41 43 33 37 46 47 49 42 39 45 42 46 57 50 53 45 43 62 Incheon 8 10 8 8 10 10 11 9 9 8 9 10 13 11 9 8 8 12 1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in March declined 0.6 percent month-on-month but rose 1.8 percent year-on-year. Output fell in mining & manufacturing (down 0.4%, m-o-m), construction (down 6.8%, m-o-m) and services (down 0.4%, m-o-m), but rose in public administration (up 1.4%, m-o-m).
Index of all industry production 20
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(%)
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %) Coincident composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (2010=100) (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p) 1. Preliminary
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
Index of all industry production(y-o-y)
Aug -0.6 0.6 121.5 0.6 100.4 0.2 122.4 1.1 100.4 0.6
Sep -0.7 1.8 121.8 0.2 100.2 -0.2 123.6 1.0 101.0 0.6
2014 Oct 0.4 0.2 121.9 0.1 99.9 -0.3 124.4 0.6 101.2 0.2
Nov -0.1 -0.5 122.2 0.2 99.8 -0.1 124.9 0.5 101.1 -0.1
Dec 1.3 2.1 123.1 0.7 100.1 0.3 125.9 0.7 101.5 0.4
Jan -1.9 0.6 123.6 0.4 100.1 0.0 127.8 1.5 102.5 1.0 1
2015 Feb1 2.2 0.6 124.5 0.7 100.5 0.4 129.0 0.9 103.1 0.6
Mar1 -0.6 1.8 124.7 0.2 100.3 -0.2 130.5 1.2 103.8 0.7
40
The Green Book : Current Economic Trends
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index was down 0.2 points from the previous month, declining for the first time in four months. Mining & manufacturing production, retail sales, domestic shipments and imports declined month-on-month, while service output, the value of construction completed and nonfarm payroll employment rose. Components of the coincident composite index in March (m-o-m) service output (0.2%), value of construction completed (0.6%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.1%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.6%), retail sales (-0.3%), domestic shipments (-0.2%), imports (-0.4%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.7 points. The inventory circulation indicator, ratio of job openings to job seekers and spreads between long & short term interest rates declined, while six other components of the leading composite index rose. Components of the leading composite index in March (m-o-m) consumer expectations index (0.3p), domestic shipments of machinery (0.5%), value of construction orders received (26.9%), ratio of export to import prices (0.9%), international commodity prices (3.7%), KOSPI (1.2%), inventory circulation indicator (-2.3%p), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-2.0%p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.04%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 110
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
(points)
100
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
41
ECONOMIC ECONOMICBULLETIN BULLETIN••may Feb 2015
Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan
Policy Issue
42
Policy Issue
Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan
The government published outlines for capital market reform along with measures to promote the KONEX market, encourage unlisted stock trading and develop
the derivatives market, all of which are aimed at encouraging investment and increasing fund management efficiency.
1. Capital market reform outline Problems
5 goals
15 activities ① Promote the KONEX market
Stagnating stock exchange market
1. Improve the bourse system
② Foster competition between different exchanges ③ Implement capital market investment promotion measures ④ Remove barriers to venture capital investment
Startup venture investment falling short of expectations
2. Increase venture capital investment
Large amount of capital being accumulated due to an aging population and low rates of return
3. Enhance financial asset management efficiency
Capital market infrastructure falling short of global standards, including investor protection
4. Revamp regulations to increase transaction efficiency and credibility
⑩ Introduce electronic securities
Fund management hampered by inefficient regulations and practices
5. Streamline regulations to help fund management companies strengthen competitiveness
⑬ Allow securities firms to expand financing function
⑤ Diversify exit channels for venture capital investments ⑥ Promote a private-placement corporate bond market ⑦ Revise PEF regulations ⑧ Improve pension funds’ asset management efficiency ⑨ Promote the financial advisory service industry
⑪ Revise rules regarding corporate disclosure ⑫ Publish the Korean “stewardship code”1
⑭ Help securities firms strengthen asset management services ⑮ Revise requirements for obtaining asset management
licenses and promote doing business overseas
1) Whose aim is to make institutional investors be actively engaged in corporate governance to maximize corporate value for the benefit of shareholders
43
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
2. Promote the KONEX market 2 In order to attract more venture capital investment and encourage companies to be listed on the KONEX, the government will: - lower the minimum deposit requirement from 300 million won to 100 million won for individual investors and introduce a ‘small investment account’, which will allow investment of up to 30 million won a year regardless of deposit levels - give priority to high-yield funds holding more than 2 percent of their portfolio in KONEX stocks when allocating initial public offerings on the KOSDAQ - ease requirements for startups to be listed on the KONEX: allow startups to be listed when institutional shareholders 3 hold more than 20 percent of their shares, official tech credit bureaus credit technologies, and institutional investors agree on listing - ease requirements for KONEX listed companies to be listed on the KOSDAQ when they try to be listed by merging with KOSDAQ-listed special purpose acquisition companies (SPAC) - strengthen investor protection: the exchange will require brokerages to inform individual investors about investment risks when opening a ‘small investment account,’ as well as provide information about the KONEX listed companies through reports and an online portal
3. Encourage unlisted stock trading in the OTC market The government has been working on promoting
over-the-counter trading of unlisted stocks in order to boost venture capital investment and reinvestment. In addition to the primary over-thecounter exchange for unlisted blue chip stocks, launched in 2014, the secondary exchange for ventures and SMEs has been open since April 2015. The secondary exchange has the least requirements for companies to be listed, and is expected to boost trading of such shares.
4. Stimulate the derivatives market The government will introduce new products to stimulate the derivatives market, which has been stagnating along with a decrease in the KOSPI 200 Futures and Options trading. - M ini KOSPI 200 Futures and Options lower the minimum trade requirement to one-fifth compared to the KOSPI 200 Futures and Options, from 130 million won to 26 million won for the KOSPI 200 Futures and from 30 million won to 6 million won for the KOSPI 200 Options. These mini products are expected to attract retail investors while satisfying sophisticated investors. - K OSDAQ Individual Equity Futures, which has individual stocks listed on the KOSDAQ as underlying assets, offers risk hedging for KOSDAQ investment. - Dividend Index4 Futures uses dividend indices for underlying assets and will satisfy growing demand for such products. - Chinese Renminbi (RMB) Futures provides risk hedging for RMB trading and will help the currency trading market function in a stable manner.
2) The Korea New Exchange (KONEX) is a third stock market to trade shares of startups and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which was launched in June 2013 3) Such institutional shareholders need to be certified by the exchange 4) The Korea Exchange posts 4 dividend indices including the KOSPI high dividend index and the KOSPI dividend growth index
44
Economic News Briefing
Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased President Park Geun-hye Visits Latin America FDI Declines 29.8% in Q1 Korean FDI Grows 5.2% in Q1 190 Billion Won Digital Content Fund to be Created 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Signs FTA with Vietnam ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1 (Advanced)
Economic News Briefing
45
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
President Park Geun-hye (right) greets the crowd with Chilean President Michelle Bachelet in front of the presidential palace in Santiago, Chile on April 22.
Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased The government will ease regulations on greenbelt areas, where development is restricted, in order to improve the lives of residents living in the areas. Under eased rules, city mayors or provincial governors will be allowed to abolish greenbelt zones smaller than 300,000 square meters without first gaining approval from the central government. This will help reduce the time required to start a land development project by over a year. Rules that require landowners to reside on their greenbelt property for at least five years before adding on to their current facilities will be abolished. Also, greenbelt landowners will be allowed to build facilities for the purpose of selling their products or running farming experience programs. Individual owners will be allowed to build facilities on up to 300 square meters of land, and if the residents of a certain greenbelt zone plan
to jointly run a farming experience program or a resort, up to 1,000 square meters will be allowed.
President Park Geun-hye Visits Latin America President Park Geun-hye concluded a four-nation tour of Latin America on April 27, which included Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil. According to Cheong Wa Dae, the President’s visit to Latin America helped expand the area of partnership from traditional areas, such as automobiles and minerals, to high valueadded sectors. During the tour, 78 MOUs were signed in areas such as information and communications technology (ICT), e-commerce, healthcare and renewable energy. The MOUs will pave the way for Korea’s retail and medical businesses to enter Latin American markets, and create opportunities for young adults to finds jobs in Latin America.
46
Economic News Briefing
FDI Declines 29.8% in Q1 Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea posted US $3.55 billion (notification basis) in the first quarter of 2015, down 29.8 percent from the same period of the previous year. Investment from the Middle East (up 919.2%) surged in relation to President Park’s visit to the region, while investment from China (down 76.5%) fell sharply due to a decline in real estate investment. FDI in manufacturing declined 84.3 percent, led by petrochemicals and materials, due to the slowing Chinese economy and falling oil prices. However, investment in services rose 15.9 percent.
Korean FDI Grows 5.2% in Q1 Korean FDI grew 5.2 percent, from US $7.34 billion to US $7.72 billion, in the first three months of 2015 compared to a year ago. By destination, FDI increased in North America (up 46.1%) and Europe (up 19.5%), but decreased in Asia (down 34.1%) and Latin America (down 12.3%). By industry, FDI rose in wholesale & retail (up 320.5%), finance & insurance (up 108.7%) and manufacturing (up 5.9%), but fell in mining (down 47.3%) and real estate & renting (down 51.0%).
190 Billion Won Digital Content Fund to be Created The government is planning to create a 190 billion won fund this year to help the digital content industry. The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning will contribute 50 billion won, and the rest will be contributed by the private sector, state-run banks, the Small and Medium Business Administration and the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism. The fund will be invested in companies that show potential in computer graphics, digital animation, virtual reality and mobile content.
2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies On May 13, President Park presided over the 2015 National Fiscal Policy Meeting, where fiscal policies for the next five years were discussed. The 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies focus on stimulating the economy and at the same time ensuring mid- to longterm fiscal soundness. The government will keep total expenditure increases below total revenue increases for the 2015 to 2019 period when drawing up its budget, while reviewing tax exemptions and reductions to increase total revenue. The government will improve spending efficiency by re-examining all fiscal projects, and will utilize private sector capital by promoting publicprivate partnership (PPP). The meeting discussed fiscal reform tasks in 10 areas, which consist of local governments, local government education subsidies, R&D support, welfare expenditures, cultural expenditures, national defense projects, social overhead capital (SOC) investment, job creation projects, fiscal project evaluation, and public institution reform.
Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines On May 7, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance announced the ‘Peak Wage Guidelines’ in order to accelerate the adoption of the peak wage system by the public sector and create more jobs for young adults. The government expects 6,700 jobs to be created for young adults over a two year period. the peak wage system is designed to guarantee retirement at the age of 60 while at the same time creating jobs for young adults. Savings in labor costs realized through the peak wage system should be used to hire young adults as new employees. The rate and
47
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
duration of adjusted wages under the peak wage system are determined by each institution. All employees under the peak wage system are counted toward the total number of employees except for those who continue to work after retirement.
parts, and will strengthen investment ties between the two countries.
Korea Signs FTA with Vietnam
The 18th ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting was held in Azerbaijan on May 3, where the participants agreed on the new ASEAN+3 initiatives and on ways to better operate regional financial safety nets.
Korea and Vietnam officially signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on May 5. Korea will lift tariffs on 95.4 percent of products imported from Vietnam within the next 15 years after the deal goes into effect, while Vietnam will remove import duties on 89.9 percent of Korean goods. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the KoreaVietnam FTA is expected to boost Korea’s exports of textiles, electronics, cosmetics and automobile
ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
Participants agreed to establish ‘nonbinding highlevel guiding principles for macro-prudential policies and capital flow measures’ in order to deal with risks to financial stability. They also agreed on the pilot implementation of the ‘currency swap-financed trade
Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Yoon Sang-Jick (left) shakes hands with Vietnam's Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang (right) after signing the Korea-Vietnam FTA in Hanoi, Vietnam on May 5.
48
Economic News Briefing
settlement facility’ among Korea, China and Indonesia in order to promote ‘local currency usage in trade settlement.’
On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries grew 2.9 percent quarter-on-quarter, led by fruits and vegetables. Manufacturing grew 0.4 percent, led by semiconductors and petrochemical products, and construction grew 2.5 percent, led by residential housing construction. Services were up 0.9 percent, led by financial & insurance services, real estate & renting and healthcare & social welfare services.
The meeting agreed to further develop the qualification criteria for the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization Precautionary Line (CMIM-PL) based on key economic and financial indicators of all ASEAN+3 member countries.
Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1 (Advanced)
On the expenditure side, private consumption rose 0.6 percent, due to increasing durable goods consumption. Facility investment remained u n c h a n g e d f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s q u a r t e r, a s transportation equipment investment rose while machinery investment declined. Construction investment increased 7.5 percent, led by residential housing construction, while intellectual property investment rose 2.6 percent, led by R&D investment.
Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2015 compared to the previous quarter. The growth rate was up 2.4 percent from a year earlier.
Exports remained unchanged quarter-on-quarter, as gains in goods exports were offset by declines in services exports. Imports rose 0.5 percent, led by overseas consumption and transportation services.
With regard to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the meeting agreed to create three new senior management positions and develop a ‘mediumterm strategic vision’.
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period)
20141
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20151 Q1
0.6 (2.1)2 -2.0 1.6 2.0 0.5 -0.1 1.2 2.7 5.3 3.0 0.2 0.7
1.0 (2.7)2 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.5 1.9 0.9 4.6 0.6 2.3 1.5
0.9 (3.2)2 4.1 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 3.5 -0.8 0.6 -0.7 0.0
0.9 (3.5)2 3.3 0.8 -1.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 4.2 -4.8 3.3 1.3 2.9
1.1 (3.9)2 -2.2 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 -1.4 5.3 2.0 1.4 -1.1
0.5 (3.4)2 -2.0 1.1 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.6 1.3 0.5 -0.1 1.3 1.2
0.8 (3.3)2 2.0 -0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 2.1 0.2 0.9 -0.3 -1.7 -0.7
0.3 (2.7)2 2.8 0.0 -3.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 4.0 -7.8 -0.5 0.4 0.7
0.8 (2.4)2 2.9 0.4 2.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.5 2.6 0.0 0.5
2013 GDP Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Manufacturing Construction Services3 Private consumption Government consumption Facility investment Construction investment Intellectual property investment Exports Imports
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year (original data) 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
49
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
01. National accounts 02. Production, shipment and inventory 03. Production capacity and operation ratio 04. Consumer goods sales index 05. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 06. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 07. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 08. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 09. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
Statistical Appendices
50
Statistical Appendices
1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP
Final consumption Agri., fores. & Manufacturing expenditure fisheries
Period
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P
5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 2.9 3.3
1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 3.1 2.6
7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.6 4.0
5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.0
3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 3.3 3.1
0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 5.5 1.0
8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -0.8 5.8
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.3 -2.5 -5.8 7.1
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.2 -2.5 -2.2 -2.0
8.3 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
0.1 -1.8 0.0 -1.3
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.2 -0.9 -3.6
-0.2 -5.3 -2.6 -6.4
11.0 -1.9 -4.2 -3.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.2 3.5
-1.2 0.3 4.4 6.8
2.7 3.6 3.8 4.2
1.5 2.2 2.4 2.6
-3.2 4.3 4.9 6.5
1.3 8.9 7.4 3.5
-12.3 -3.2 2.3 11.6
2014PⅠ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3.9 3.4 3.3 2.7
5.6 3.3 1.4 1.3
5.1 5.1 3.3 2.4
2.7 1.7 2.0 1.8
5.8 3.3 3.3 0.7
4.1 0.2 2.3 -1.5
7.2 7.7 4.2 4.2
2015PⅠ
2.4
5.8
0.7
1.9
2.5
0.7
5.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
51
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100)
Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
2012 2013 2014
107.4 108.2 108.2
1.3 0.7 0.0
107.2 108.1 107.9
1.5 0.8 -0.2
125.2 130.7 128.4
4.4 4.4 -1.8
104.8 106.4 108.7
1.6 1.5 2.2
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.0 109.3 104.3 113.0
-0.6 0.4 0.6 2.2
106.1 109.4 104.5 112.2
-0.5 0.9 0.7 2.2
123.1 119.2 124.5 130.7
4.6 3.8 8.7 4.4
103.2 106.8 105.6 110.0
1.2 1.8 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.7 109.8 105.5 110.9
0.7 0.5 1.2 -1.9
106.5 109.3 104.8 111.0
0.4 -0.1 0.3 -1.1
130.0 128.9 129.7 128.4
5.6 8.1 4.2 -1.8
105.3 108.4 108.3 112.9
2.0 1.5 2.6 2.6
2015 ⅠP
105.6
-1.0
105.9
-0.6
133.6
2.8
108.2
2.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
111.2 97.3 109.6 109.5 110.6 107.8 108.0 103.9 101.1 113.3 112.2 113.4
9.0 -8.3 -1.8 2.5 -0.1 -1.3 1.9 3.6 -3.4 4.1 -0.4 2.8
110.0 98.2 110.2 109.3 110.3 108.6 107.1 104.9 101.4 112.6 111.4 112.6
7.0 -7.4 -0.7 2.9 0.4 -0.5 1.8 5.0 -4.5 4.1 0.4 2.3
128.6 124.6 123.1 120.7 121.7 119.2 124.0 123.5 124.5 126.3 129.1 130.7
7.8 6.1 4.6 3.6 3.0 3.8 7.5 3.5 8.7 8.8 6.4 4.4
102.4 100.4 106.7 105.6 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.7 105.4 107.8 107.4 114.7
2.1 0.5 0.9 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.8 1.7 -0.3 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 101.0 112.9 112.4 108.4 108.5 112.3 101.2 103.1 109.8 108.3 114.7
-4.5 3.8 3.0 2.6 -2.0 0.6 4.0 -2.6 2.0 -3.1 -3.5 1.1
105.1 101.3 113.1 111.3 108.7 107.8 109.5 101.7 103.2 109.0 109.2 114.9
-4.5 3.2 2.6 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.2 -3.1 1.8 -3.2 -2.0 2.0
132.1 129.3 130.0 131.2 130.0 128.9 133.2 130.6 129.7 130.7 129.7 128.4
2.7 3.8 5.6 8.7 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.7 4.2 3.5 0.5 -1.8
104.7 101.8 109.4 106.9 108.8 109.6 108.7 107.9 108.3 110.6 109.8 118.4
2.2 1.4 2.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.2
2015 1 2P 3P
108.1 96.0 112.8
1.8 -5.0 -0.1
108.1 96.6 113.1
2.9 -4.6 0.0
132.4 133.0 133.6
0.2 2.9 2.8
107.1 104.7 112.8
2.4 2.9 3.4
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
52
Statistical Appendices
3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
2012 2013 2014
106.9 108.6 110.3
2.1 1.6 1.6
97.5 95.1 94.2
-2.7 -2.5 -0.9
78.6 76.5 76.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.1 108.3 108.8 109.3
1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7
93.7 97.9 90.8 98.3
-3.9 -3.1 -2.6 0.0
77.3 76.1 75.4 77.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
109.6 109.9 110.6 111.0
1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6
92.8 96.8 91.5 95.8
-1.0 -1.1 0.8 -2.5
77.1 76.1 76.0 75.1
2015 ⅠP
111.1
1.4
90.0
-3.0
74.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.0 108.1 108.1 108.1 108.3 108.5 108.6 108.9 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.6
1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.9
98.9 84.9 97.2 97.9 99.4 96.3 94.6 90.7 87.0 99.7 98.2 96.9
6.9 -12.7 -5.5 -1.0 -3.1 -5.0 -2.7 2.7 -7.5 1.6 -2.5 0.8
78.8 77.3 75.9 75.8 76.4 76.2 74.7 76.8 74.8 77.0 76.5 77.4
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.7 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.9 110.1 110.4 110.7 110.8 110.9 110.9 111.1
1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4
91.9 87.5 99.0 99.8 95.6 94.9 98.7 86.8 88.9 95.8 94.1 97.6
-7.1 3.1 1.9 1.9 -3.8 -1.5 4.3 -4.3 2.2 -3.9 -4.2 0.7
77.8 76.3 77.2 77.2 74.9 76.3 77.9 74.7 75.4 74.2 74.6 76.6
2015 1 2P 3P
111.1 110.9 111.3
1.3 1.3 1.5
93.0 81.1 96.0
1.2 -7.3 -3.0
74.1 75.1 73.6
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
53
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100)
Period
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%)
Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
107.1 107.9 109.7
2.5 0.7 1.7
116.3 116.6 122.6
5.4 0.3 5.1
103.9 106.1 105.5
-0.3 2.1 -0.6
104.3 104.7 105.5
2.2 0.4 0.8
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.5 106.5 106.7 111.8
2.9 1.5 2.9 2.7
109.4 115.0 118.5 122.1
4.0 2.7 6.5 8.4
99.0 105.6 92.4 118.4
0.6 -0.4 -2.2 0.5
102.8 103.0 107.5 104.1
3.3 1.9 3.1 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.8 107.7 107.2 113.0
0.3 1.1 0.5 1.1
111.0 118.2 116.8 120.3
1.5 2.8 -1.4 -1.5
102.1 107.3 94.9 119.9
3.1 1.6 2.7 1.3
101.2 102.9 108.0 106.6
-1.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 108.6 108.8 115.1
2.4 0.8 1.5 1.9
117.2 121.2 123.4 128.6
5.6 2.5 5.7 6.9
100.3 104.9 96.2 120.4
-1.8 -2.2 1.4 0.4
103.8 104.3 107.5 106.5
2.6 1.4 -0.5 -0.1
2015 ⅠP
108.1
1.7
126.7
8.1
98.8
-1.5
103.4
-0.4
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.3 105.4 110.9 106.8 109.2 104.5 107.8 111.3 113.2 114.6
-2.8 1.6 2.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.0 -1.4 2.0 1.3 0.1
112.3 105.9 114.8 115.1 119.7 119.9 127.5 116.2 106.8 120.5 120.2 120.1
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 2.0 -0.2 1.4 1.8 -7.8 2.9 -2.4 -4.7
102.8 93.3 110.2 106.7 113.8 101.3 98.0 86.6 100.1 113.9 123.8 122.1
-1.9 1.5 9.8 1.7 2.2 0.9 0.6 5.4 2.6 -0.8 4.1 0.4
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.0 105.6 106.8 111.6 105.8 105.3 108.8
-6.7 3.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.8 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.3 2.8 1.9 2.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 99.1 109.3 105.6 112.1 108.1 109.9 107.1 109.3 111.1 114.3 119.9
5.5 -0.4 1.9 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.6 2.5 1.4 -0.2 1.0 4.6
116.1 116.9 118.5 114.2 121.8 127.5 131.1 118.5 120.5 118.9 128.7 138.1
3.4 10.4 3.2 -0.8 1.8 6.3 2.8 2.0 12.8 -1.3 7.1 15.0
100.7 92.0 108.2 105.8 111.8 97.2 95.7 91.5 101.5 116.0 120.6 124.7
-2.0 -1.4 -1.8 -0.8 -1.8 -4.0 -2.3 5.7 1.4 1.8 -2.6 2.1
111.9 93.9 105.5 101.5 107.7 103.7 106.3 108.6 107.5 105.4 104.9 109.3
10.0 -5.4 2.9 1.2 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.7 -3.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.5
2015 1 2P 3P
107.3 104.5 112.4
-2.8 5.4 2.8
128.2 117.2 134.7
10.4 0.3 13.7
97.9 92.6 105.9
-2.8 0.7 -2.1
101.7 103.8 104.7
-9.1 10.5 -0.8
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
54
Statistical Appendices
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods Nondurable goods y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period
Consumer sentiment index
2012 2013 2014
102.5 102.2 101.8
1.6 -0.3 -0.4
102.8 103.4 102.6
2.5 0.6 -0.8
102.4 101.7 101.5
1.2 -0.7 -0.2
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.0 98.7 102.4 104.7
2.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2
108.3 100.9 102.6 101.8
10.7 1.8 0.1 -9.1
100.8 97.7 102.3 105.9
-1.2 -2.5 -1.5 2.4
-
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 100.3 102.4 103.9
-2.2 1.6 0.0 -0.8
103.4 103.0 100.9 103.2
-4.5 2.1 -1.7 1.4
99.5 99.2 103.0 104.2
-1.3 1.5 0.7 -1.6
-
2015 ⅠP
101.7
1.0
100.0
-3.3
102.4
2.9
-
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.8 96.9 103.3 99.5 99.7 96.9 103.4 104.0 99.7 108.8 102.9 102.3
8.2 -1.7 0.2 0.3 -1.9 -2.0 0.6 2.5 -6.0 2.1 -2.6 -3.2
110.3 106.4 108.1 98.1 101.7 102.8 109.0 103.8 94.9 104.4 103.1 97.8
19.2 8.2 5.5 4.3 1.3 0.0 3.5 5.5 -8.7 -3.8 -7.0 -16.1
108.1 92.9 101.3 100.0 98.8 94.4 101.1 104.2 101.7 110.7 102.8 104.2
3.9 -5.9 -1.9 -1.3 -3.2 -3.0 -0.7 1.3 -5.0 4.7 -0.7 3.1
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.4 96.6 103.0 101.7 99.8 99.5 104.8 100.2 102.2 105.0 100.9 105.8
-5.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.2 0.1 2.7 1.4 -3.7 2.5 -3.5 -1.9 3.4
99.9 106.7 103.6 97.9 103.4 107.7 107.6 95.0 100.1 99.8 102.9 106.8
-9.4 0.3 -4.2 -0.2 1.7 4.8 -1.3 -8.5 5.5 -4.4 -0.2 9.2
103.4 92.3 102.8 103.3 98.2 96.1 103.7 102.4 103.0 107.3 100.0 105.4
-4.3 -0.6 1.5 3.3 -0.6 1.8 2.6 -1.7 1.3 -3.1 -2.7 1.2
109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107 107 105 103 101
2015 1 2P 3P 4
104.8 94.5 105.8 -
2.3 -2.2 2.7 -
101.2 92.8 106.1 -
1.3 -13.0 2.4 -
106.3 95.3 105.6 -
2.8 3.3 2.7 -
102 103 101 104
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
55
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Estimated facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) (2010=100) change (%) change (%) change (%)
Period 2012 2013 2014
21,648 23,078 26,485
-13.9 6.6 14.8
2,142 2,580 5,012
-11.0 20.5 94.2
19,506 20,497 21,473
-14.2 5.1 4.8
100.6 99.8 105.0
-2.8 -0.8 5.2
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,587 5,865 5,144 6,481
-11.5 8.8 2.1 32.0
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,158 5,311 4,622 5,406
-6.2 4.0 3.7 21.7
91.7 101.1 99.3 107.0
-12.7 -3.5 3.2 11.0
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,624 6,099 7,687 6,075
18.5 4.0 49.4 -6.3
1,221 305 2,708 778
184.6 -45.0 418.5 -27.6
5,403 5,794 4,979 5,297
4.7 9.1 7.7 -2.0
98.6 107.9 100.8 112.8
7.5 6.7 1.5 5.4
2015 ⅠP
6,615
-0.1
401
-67.1
6,214
15.0
106.1
7.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,844 1,666 2,078 1,846 2,127 1,893 1,934 1,622 1,588 2,604 2,094 1,783
-4.6 -34.5 13.2 0.0 16.2 10.3 5.4 7.5 -6.2 72.3 26.5 2.3
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.5 -28.5 815.5 28.2 -51.4
1,704 1,497 1,957 1,753 1,877 1,681 1,575 1,530 1,517 1,816 1,931 1,659
-9.4 -18.9 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.3 14.2 -4.8 27.4 26.3 11.5
90.1 83.9 101.0 98.7 102.1 102.5 108.4 100.6 88.8 109.6 101.9 109.4
-7.8 -23.1 -6.7 -7.1 -3.5 0.2 2.8 11.7 -4.6 16.0 10.3 7.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,748 1,847 3,029 2,276 1,826 1,997 1,779 4,090 1,818 1,932 2,303 1,840
-5.2 10.9 45.8 23.3 -14.1 5.5 -8.0 152.2 14.5 -25.8 10.0 3.2
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541 79 211 428 139
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2,653.2 10.6 -73.2 162.6 12.5
1,660 1,727 2,016 2,179 1,709 1,906 1,690 1,549 1,739 1,722 1,874 1,701
-2.6 15.3 3.0 24.3 -8.9 13.4 7.3 1.3 14.7 -5.2 -2.9 2.5
90.3 95.6 109.8 110.6 108.3 104.9 111.4 90.7 100.2 99.8 112.5 126.0
0.2 13.9 8.7 12.1 6.1 2.3 2.8 -9.8 12.8 -8.9 10.4 15.2
2015 1 2P 3P
2,324 1,874 2,417
32.9 1.5 -20.2
116 141 144
32.0 17.6 -85.8
2,208 1,733 2,273
33.0 0.4 12.8
102.7 98.6 117.1
13.7 3.1 6.6
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
Statistical Appendices
7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won)
Period
Type of order Private
Value of construction Public completed y-o-y y-o-y (Total) change (%) change (%)
Type of order Domestic construction Public Private orders y-o-y received change (%) y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y change (%) change (%) change (%) (Total)
2012 2013 2014
88,713 98,089 98,465
-3.3 10.6 0.4
33,807 34,459 32,004
-3.7 1.9 -7.1
50,622 59,714 62,403
-2.0 18.0 4.5
89,395 77,885 89,833
-6.2 -12.9 15.3
26,071 24,736 26,497
-8.9 -5.1 7.1
59,811 50,947 61,321
-3.3 -14.8 20.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,178 25,760 23,718 28,732
4.7 14.9 11.1 10.7
6,998 9,318 8,058 10,085
-6.0 4.8 6.0 2.1
12,415 15,455 14,739 17,106
14.0 24.2 16.3 17.1
13,826 18,694 16,833 28,532
-39.0 -27.4 -8.5 26.3
4,292 5,371 4,987 10,086
-24.1 -3.6 -7.7 6.8
9,180 12,636 11,442 17,688
-43.7 -33.8 -8.6 48.9
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
21,675 26,174 23,601 27,016
7.4 1.6 -0.5 -5.0
7,147 8,706 7,243 8,909
2.1 -6.6 -10.1 -11.7
13,676 16,512 15,360 16,855
10.2 6.8 4.2 -1.5
15,972 23,436 24,035 26,390
15.5 25.4 42.8 -7.5
5,898 6,577 5,190 8,833
37.4 22.5 4.1 -12.4
9,628 16,537 18,175 16,982
4.9 30.9 58.8 -4.0
2015 ⅠP
21,265
-1.9
6,559
-8.2
13,958
2.1
24,419
52.9
4,576
-22.4
19,595 103.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,272 6,236 7,670 81,057 81,607 94,947 7,854 7,666 8,199 8,637 9,088 10,708
8.2 3.3 3.0 18.4 11.7 15.0 11.6 16.5 6.0 17.6 12.2 4.6
2,072 2,346 2,581 2,830 2,797 3,691 2,635 2,553 2,870 2,952 3,118 4,015
-2.4 -1.1 -12.4 7.0 -2.7 9.4 11.1 10.0 -1.2 13.9 3.8 -6.2
3,962 3,662 4,790 4,978 5,088 5,389 4,908 4,827 5,004 5,344 5,635 6,126
17.4 7.5 16.4 27.5 23.9 21.6 14.7 22.4 12.4 20.0 18.1 13.7
3,557 4,723 5,546 5,151 6,221 7,321 5,775 4,690 6,368 7,751 8,083 12,698
-52.4 -44.4 -17.4 -19.9 -14.9 -39.0 -15.4 -13.0 3.0 33.6 11.6 32.9
1,300 1,281 1,711 1,565 1,564 2,241 1,493 1,474 2,021 1,518 2,664 5,904
-36.1 -42.3 21.9 7.7 47.4 -26.7 -35.2 12.0 13.5 -23.0 26.5 10.0
2,109 3,290 3,781 3,160 4,537 4,940 4,148 3,172 4,122 6,144 5,204 6,340
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
7,057 6,665 7,953 8,476 8,191 9,506 7,914 7,721 7,966 8,239 8,339 10,438
12.5 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 -2.8 -4.6 -8.2 -2.5
2,314 2,207 2,626 2,740 2,584 3,382 2,429 2,324 2,491 2,532 2,673 3,704
11.7 -6.0 1.8 -3.2 -7.6 -8.4 -7.8 -9.0 -13.2 -14.2 -14.3 -7.8
4,452 4,237 4,987 5,458 5,316 5,737 5,149 5,112 5,099 5,369 5,293 6,194
12.4 15.7 4.1 9.6 4.5 6.5 4.9 5.9 1.9 0.5 -6.1 1.1
5,528 5,549 4,895 7,359 6,834 9,243 6,969 8,688 8,377 7,755 6,427 12,209
55.4 17.5 -11.7 42.9 9.9 26.2 20.7 85.2 31.6 0.0 -20.5 -3.9
2,034 2,241 1,623 1,894 2,000 2,682 1,533 1,628 2,029 1,416 1,895 5,522
56.4 75.0 -5.1 21.0 27.8 19.7 2.7 10.5 0.4 -6.7 -28.9 -6.5
3,305 56.7 3,158 -4.0 3,165 -16.3 5,454 72.6 4,767 5.1 6,316 27.8 5,298 27.7 6,849 115.9 6,029 46.3 6,157 0.2 4,415 -15.2 6,410 1.1
2015 1 2P 3P
6,774 6,678 7,812
-4.0 0.2 -1.8
1,997 2,088 2,475
-13.7 -5.4 -5.7
4,561 4,373 5,025
2.4 3.2 0.7
7,216 5,371 11,832
30.5 -3.2 141.7
1,297 1,139 2,140
-36.2 -49.2 31.9
5,882 78.0 4,113 30.2 9,600 203.4
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
-60.0 -46.3 -23.1 -29.2 -26.0 -41.9 -4.2 -21.3 -0.9 62.2 8.5 92.7
57
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
8. Composite indexes of business cycle indicators and BSI Period
Leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Cyclical Coincident index indicator of (2010=100) coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.5 101.7 101.8 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.3 103.5 103.8
101.0 100.7 100.3 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.2 99.0 98.7 98.4 98.3
103.5 103.5 104.0 104.0 104.9 105.6 106.2 106.7 106.8 107.2 107.3 107.7
101.7 101.4 101.4 101.1 101.5 101.8 101.9 102.0 101.6 101.6 101.2 101.2
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 105.7 106.2 106.6 106.7 107.8 108.3 108.4 108.1 108.5 109.3 110.1
98.5 99.2 99.1 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.3 98.9 98.2 98.1 98.4 98.7
107.7 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.3 109.7 110.5 110.4 110.8 110.9 111.5 112.1
100.8 101.3 101.0 101.0 100.6 100.7 100.9 100.4 100.4 100.0 100.2 100.3
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.4 110.9 111.4 111.9 112.7 113.8 114.5 115.1 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.1
98.5 98.5 98.5 98.6 98.8 99.3 99.5 99.6 99.3 99.6 99.9 100.3
112.4 112.9 113.0 113.6 114.1 114.8 115.2 115.8 116.1 116.8 117.2 117.8
100.2 100.2 99.8 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.1 100.3 100.2 100.3
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
118.7 118.9 119.0 119.4 119.8 120.5 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.4 124.9 125.9
100.4 100.2 99.8 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.4 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.5
118.5 118.9 119.4 119.6 119.8 120.2 120.8 121.5 121.8 121.9 122.2 123.0
100.5 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.2 99.9 99.8 100.1
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 93.1 90.0 95.4
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7 93.6 94.0
2015 1 2 3 4 5
127.8 129.0 130.5 -
102.5 103.1 103.8 -
123.6 124.5 124.7 -
100.2 100.5 100.3 -
94.0 89.4 101.5 101.3 -
90.3 92.1 103.7 97.5 99.4
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
58
Statistical Appendices
9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)
Period
Current account
Goods
2012 2013 2014
50,835.0 79,883.6 89,220.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
554,103.2 536,559.0 528,611.3
-5,213.6 -7,927.4 -8,163.4
12,116.7 11,424.8 10,197.7
-5,474.1 -4,182.3 -5,501.8
144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6
142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7
-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0
2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9
-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7
14,298.0 20,585.3 23,305.7 24,592.0
147,823.3 154,065.9 153,715.8 162,551.9
133,525.3 133,480.6 130,410.1 137,959.9
-2,667.9 647.9 -2,078.5 -2,400.7
1,812.4 1,660.5 2,346.6 3,236.2
-828.2 -546.3 -1,323.4 -1,491.4
15,185.9 24,240.4 22,565.7 27,228.1
17,745.2 26,428.1 21,676.0 26,838.3
152,688.6 159,385.4 153,482.3 155,742.6
134,943.4 132,957.3 131,806.3 128,904.3
-3,503.4 -1,838.7 -904.0 -1,917.3
1,905.8 1,330.9 3,143.5 3,817.5
-961.7 -1,679.9 -1,349.8 -1,510.4
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,075.6 2,473.1 7,065.6 5,334.6 9,886.4 7,126.4 7,323.2 6,745.6 8,181.6 11,108.9 6,229.9 6,597.3
3,953.0 3,256.4 7,088.6 5,510.6 9,363.1 5,711.6 7,462.2 7,271.4 8,572.1 9,767.8 8,024.8 6,799.4
51,765.7 44,916.0 51,141.6 51,704.7 53,477.3 48,883.9 53,326.3 49,899.2 50,490.3 56,820.8 52,702.3 53,028.8
47,812.7 41,659.6 44,053.0 46,194.1 44,114.2 43,172.3 45,864.1 42,627.8 41,918.2 47,053.0 44,677.5 46,229.4
-1,556.6 -1,144.9 33.6 496.2 -28.7 180.4 -879.0 -869.3 -330.2 405.8 -2,088.9 -717.6
1,169.5 623.3 19.6 -482.0 721.6 1,420.9 1,032.7 665.9 648.0 1,335.7 674.8 1,225.7
-490.3 -261.7 -76.2 -190.2 -169.6 -186.5 -292.7 -322.4 -708.3 -400.4 -380.8 -710.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3,323.7 4,537.5 7,324.7 7,163.1 9,119.2 7,958.1 7,881.7 7,235.1 7,448.9 8,883.2 11,322.1 7,022.8
4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,133.5 6,646.6 6,794.4 7,367.3 7,514.3 8,487.1 10,031.4 8,319.8
50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,383.0 50,281.0 53,811.7 48,920.1 50,750.5 51,970.8 50,063.0 53,708.8
46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,249.5 43,634.4 47,017.3 41,552.8 43,236.2 43,483.7 40,031.6 45,389.0
-1,873.7 -1,020.3 -609.4 -1,004.4 -297.7 -536.6 31.0 -694.3 -240.7 -212.6 -164.6 -1,540.1
1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1 2,225.5 1,488.8 1,048.0 606.7 967.6 1,667.5 1,182.4
-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.7 -377.4 -432.5 -485.9 -431.4 -358.9 -212.2 -939.3
2015P 1 2 3
6,583.0 6,442.2 10,391.0
6,687.0 7,321.2 11,211.9
45,398.8 40,595.3 49,570.1
38,711.8 33,274.1 38,358.2
-2,384.4 -2,061.6 -967.2
2,900.4 1,401.3 528.8
-620.0 -218.7 -382.5
Exports
Imports
49,406.0 80,568.6 92,687.6
603,509.2 617,127.6 621,298.9
-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1
1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
12,614.3 22,347.4 22,250.4 23,936.1
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
59
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)
Capital & financial account
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Capital transfers & acquisition of nonfinancial assets
Reserve assets
2012 2013 2014
-51,582.4 -80,104.6 -90,383.3
-21,136.2 -15,593.2 -20,659.5
6,747.8 -9,344.5 -33,605.3
2,627.8 4,410.3 3,704.9
-26,637.3 -43,281.1 -21,937.9
-41.7 -27.0 -9.0
-13,184.5 -16,296.1 -17,885.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2
-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9
14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1
-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,448.7 -19,645.6 -22,675.5 -26,334.8
-3,878.4 -3,397.8 -3,426.8 -4,890.2
-7,285.9 -9,776.5 9,375.4 -1,657.5
1,395.8 -513.6 1,656.3 1,871.8
2,880.2 -10,063.8 -23,611.4 -12,486.1
-2.7 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
-4,560.4 4,106.1 -6,669.0 -9,172.8
2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-17177.8 -24,208.1 -22,481.5 -26,515.9
-3,657.7 -7,552.9 -3,908.6 -5,540.3
-13,596.7 -5,867.2 -4,762.4 -9,379.0
892.6 2,083.5 1,531.9 -803.1
6,207.4 -1,701.9 -9,510.4 -16,933.0
-2.1 -4.3 3.6 -6.2
-7,023.4 -11,169.6 -5,832.0 6,139.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,694.7 -1,707.1 -7,046.9 -2,435.7 -12,288.9 -4,921.0 -9,446.1 -6,236.3 -6,993.1 -10,139.4 -7,433.1 -8,762.3
-802.5 -909.3 -2,166.6 401.3 -2,175.6 -1,623.5 -796.8 -1,157.2 -1,472.8 -340.7 -2,243.9 -2,305.6
-5,964.7 2,149.9 -3,471.1 -2,060.8 -1,642.1 -6,073.6 1,785.8 1,584.1 6,005.5 4,942.8 -1,557.9 -5,042.4
579.6 651.0 165.2 -301.1 719.1 -931.6 431.4 210.0 1,014.9 805.3 466.9 599.6
4,123.7 -1,158.3 -85.2 -1,382.5 -8,189.7 -491.6 -8,821.6 -5,172.4 -9,617.4 -10,754.2 -1,248.6 -483.3
-8.0 -2.9 8.2 -1.6 -11.0 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
-630.8 -2,440.4 -1,489.2 907.4 -1,000.6 4,199.3 -2,044.9 -1,700.8 -2,923.3 -4,792.6 -2,849.6 -1,530.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -8,132.4 -9,836.9 -5,916.9 -7,802.4 -8,762.2 -6,801.5 -9,915.5 -9,798.9
529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8 -2,056.3 -1,011.5 -749.5 -2,147.6 -2,088.9 -2,098.2 -1,353.2
-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0 -4,218.5 -1,743.7 504.4 -3,523.1 -382.4 -2,835.6 -6,161.0
155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5 690.9 504.1 557.7 470.1 -570.7 -81.8 -150.6
1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 3,950.6 283.1 -338.1 -7,288.1 -1,884.2 -4,007.0 -7,797.4 -5,128.6
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 -4.2
-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7 -826.9 -1,677.4 247.5 2,897.5 2,994.5
2015P 1 2 3
-8,240.4 -5,538.7 -11,020.7
-1,001.5 -1,994.5 -2,389.9
-3,623.7 -3,001.5 -1,213.2
-76.2 27.5 89.7
489.1 -371.2 -4,624.3
-13.0 -1.7 -8.4
-4,028.1 -199.0 -2,883.0
Period
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
60
Statistical Appendices
11. Prices (2010=100)
Period
Consumer Prices Commodities Services
All Items y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Producer prices All Items Commodities
Core
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
106.3 107.7 109.0
2.2 1.3 1.3
108.9 110.1 111.1
3.0 1.0 0.9
104.2 105.8 107.4
1.4 1.5 1.6
104.9 106.6 108.8
1.6 1.6 2.0
107.5 105.7 105.2
0.7 -1.6 -0.5
108.9 106.2 104.8
0.2 -2.5 -1.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4
107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0
4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6
103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8
2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5
3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2
107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8
3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4
3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5 109.4 109.1 108.8 108.8
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4 111.5 110.6 110.2 110.1
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9 107.8 107.8 107.7 107.8
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.1 109.1 109.3
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6 105.2 104.5 104.1 103.1
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -2.1
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.1 104.7 103.6 103.1 101.9
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -1.3 -1.8 -2.0 -3.6
2015 1 2 3
109.4 109.4 109.4
0.8 0.5 0.4
110.9 110.6 110.3
-0.1 -0.7 -1.2
108.2 108.4 108.7
1.5 1.5 1.6
110.3 110.4 110.6
2.4 2.3 2.1
101.9 101.9 101.8
-3.6 -3.6 -3.7
99.7 99.7 99.5
-5.8 -5.8 -5.9
Source: The Bank of Korea
61
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
12. Employment Period
Economically active persons (thousand)
All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Employed persons (thousand) Manufacturing SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment rate (%)
2012 2013 2014
25,501 25,873 26,536
1.6 1.5 2.6
24,681 25,066 25,599
1.8 1.6 2.1
4,105 4,184 4,330
0.3 1.9 3.5
19,033 19,347 19,805
2.4 1.6 2.4
3.2 3.1 3.5
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139
2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0
23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402
2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183
-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8
18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010
3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9
3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766 26,809 26,786 26,270
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917 25,951 25,968 25,384
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.7
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347 4,361 4,355 4,406
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1 3.4 2.4 3.3
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949 19,973 20,098 19,896
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4
2015 1 2 3 4
26,094 26,398 26,577 26,954
1.7 1.5 1.5 0.9
25,106 25,195 25,501 25,900
1.4 1.5 1.3 0.8
4,421 4,433 4,400 4,455
3.3 3.7 2.7 3.9
19,693 19,716 19,832 20,004
1.6 1.6 1.5 0.9
3.8 4.6 4.0 3.9
Source: Statistics Korea
62
Statistical Appendices
13. Financial indicators (period average)
Period
Yields(%) Corporate bonds Treasury bonds (3 years, AA-) (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Stock KOSPI(endperiod)
Call rate (1 day)
CDs (91 days)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09 1,964.43 1,980.78 1,915.59
2015 1 2 3 4
2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7
2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0
2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9
1,949.26 1,985.80 2,041.03 2,127.17
Source: The Bank of Korea
63
ECONOMIC BULLETIN • may 2015
14. Monetary indicators (billion won)
Reserve money y-o-y change (%)
Period 2012 2013 2014
M1
M2
y-o-y change (%)
Lf
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
82,131.1 91,379.4 103,331.5
9.2 11.3 13.1
441,963.6 484,062.9 536,733.4
3.8 9.5 10.9
1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3 2,009,576.3
5.2 4.8 6.6
2,379,518.7 2,543,299.4 2,721,747.4
7.8 6.9 7.0
2012 1 2
81,635.4 81,655.3
11.0 8.3
439,352.9 437,193.9
2.3 1.1
1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4
4.8 5.3
2,292,213.5 2,302,065.8
6.5 7.2
3
79,068.0
8.3
440,075.4
2.1
1,773,172.9
5.7
2,341,626.9
8.8
4
80,641.8
10.2
437,445.3
2.8
1,777,114.7
5.5
2,349,723.2
8.6
5
80,547.7
9.1
438,795.3
3.5
1,784,220.5
5.5
2,357,701.0
8.4
6
81,804.0
9.5
441,611.0
4.7
1,796,981.5
5.9
2,377,071.3
8.5
7
81,555.7
10.1
441,760.6
5.4
1,807,289.2
6.0
2,393,737.7
8.4
8
82,369.1
8.9
439,573.2
4.0
1,817,134.9
5.7
2,405,239.9
7.8
9
82,958.7
6.4
440,034.3
3.5
1,819,290.1
5.2
2,415,263.5
7.6
10
85,078.6
10.6
444,477.8
5.5
1,822,420.9
4.6
2,424,000.4
7.1
11 12
82,956.5 85,302.7
8.3 9.6
445,463.9 457,778.9
5.3 5.8
1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7
4.4 4.5
2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9
7.1 7.3
2013 1 2
85,839.3 88,855.7
5.1 8.8
464,914.5 472,239.6
5.8 8.0
1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0
4.8 5.3
2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0
7.7 8.1
3
89,523.5
13.2
472,430.1
7.4
1,862,405.5
5.0
2,499,718.1
6.8
4
87,729.0
8.8
475,330.0
8.7
1,867,726.3
5.1
2,512,459.7
6.9
5
89,654.8
11.3
475,526.7
8.4
1,870,289.7
4.8
2,518,239.1
6.8
6
91,207.6
11.5
486,587.5
10.2
1,884,193.2
4.9
2,533,750.8
6.6
7
90,643.7
11.1
488,982.7
10.7
1,890,728.6
4.6
2,549,443.5
6.5
8
93,729.6
13.8
481,416.9
9.5
1,888,658.4
3.9
2,557,336.3
6.3
9
95,130.6
14.7
490,518.7
11.5
1,903,187.1
4.6
2,577,546.7
6.7
10
93,640.4
10.1
491,947.9
10.7
1,908,557.6
4.7
2,587,071.4
6.7
11 12
93,609.9 96,988.5
12.8 13.7
499,242.7 509,617.9
12.1 11.3
1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4
5.1 5.3
2,605,873.9 2,619,029.5
6.8 6.6
2014 1 2
98,541.6 100,547.9
14.8 13.2
515,742.5 518,475.5
10.9 9.8
1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7
5.2 5.2
2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0
6.7 6.4
3
100,624.0
12.4
520,299.0
10.1
1,964,954.0
5.5
2,659,370.7
6.4
4
98,898.5
12.7
518,809.3
9.1
1,970,361.6
5.5
2,669,341.4
6.2
5
101,791.4
13.5
523,069.9
10.0
1,982,390.9
6.0
2,684,643.9
6.6
6
101,412.3
11.2
532,041.2
9.3
1,999,376.3
6.1
2,703,088.1
6.7
7
101,164.2
11.6
534,028.8
9.2
2,013,935.1
6.5
2,725,737.6
6.9
8
107,682.4
14.9
538,640.3
11.9
2,031,777.2
7.6
2,743,972.5
7.3
9
105,354.1
10.7
548,550.8
11.8
2,037,600.8
7.1
2,759,390.8
7.1
10
107,117.5
14.4
551,416.0
12.1
2,051,149.8
7.5
2,776,971.6
7.3
11 12
106,667.9 110,175.6
13.9 13.6
562,006.2 577,721.1
12.6 13.4
2,083,253.5 2,088,729.8
8.3 8.1
2,817,698.0 2,837,910.9
8.1 8.2
2015 1 2 3
113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9
15.0 15.9 15.3
579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9
12.5 14.3 15.5
2,092,223.5 2,109,843.2 2,127,887.8
8.0 8.0 8.3
2,857,610.1 2,876,619.9 2,907,976.4
8.4 8.6 9.3
Source: The Bank of Korea
64
Statistical Appendices
15. Exchange rates (end-period)
Period
100/ \
US $/ \
Euro/ \
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
2012 2013 2014
1,071.1 1,055.3 1,099.2
-7.1 -1.5 4.2
1,247.5 1,004.7 920.1
-16.0 -19.5 -8.4
1,416.3 1,456.3 1,336.5
-5.2 2.8 -8.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1
1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1
1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5
8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0
1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3
-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6 1,054.0 1,101.1 1,099.2
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3 -0.7 3.7 4.2
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2 964.1 933.9 920.1
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6 -10.5 -10.0 -8.4
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3 1,328.8 1,372.2 1,336.5
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1 -8.8 -5.0 -8.2
2015 1 2 3 4
1,090.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1
1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5
921.3 920.7 920.3 897.2
-11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8
1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0
-16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7
Source: The Bank of Korea
Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
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ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.37 No.5 May 2015
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.37 No.5 May 2015
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issue Government Outlines Capital Market Reform Plan
Economic News Briefing Greenbelt Regulations to be Eased 2015-2019 Fiscal Management Policies Government Announces Peak Wage System Guidelines Korea Grows 0.8% in Q1
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN
(Republic of Korea)
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