ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
June 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol. 36 No.6 June 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Featured Issue
Encouraging the Youth to Develop an Entrepreneurial Spirit
(Interview with Nam Min-Woo, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Young Generation)
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Economic News Briefing
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June 2014
Sejong, 339-012
Statistical Appendices
Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Vol.36 No.6
contents
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends 03
Overview
04
1. External economic situation
10
2. Private consumption
12
3. Facility investment
14
4. Construction investment
16
5. Exports and imports
18
6. Mining and manufacturing production
20
7. Service sector activity
22
8. Employment
26
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
30
10. Balance of payments
32
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
38
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
43
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
45 Featured Issue 46
Encouraging the Youth to Develop an Entrepreneurial Spirit
(Interview with Nam Min-Woo, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Young Generation)
48 Economic News Briefing 53 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Board Coordinators Editor
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Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI), Kim Yong-Jin (MOSF) Choi Jae-Hyuk (MOSF), Lee Seong-Pyo (KDI), Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF), Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) David Friedman (MOSF)
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Th Gr e ee nB oo k Cu rre nt
2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Ec on om ic T ren ds
Overview
1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports
6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
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OVERVIEW The Korean economy suffered from a fall in retail sales and service output in April. However, employment and inflation remained stable, and manufacturing production, facility investment and construction improved. The economy added less jobs in April, adding 581,000 jobs year-on-year compared to 649,000 jobs in March. Inflation in May remained stable in the 1 percent range, increasing 1.7 percent year-on-year, up from 1.5 percent in the previous month. Mining and manufacturing production continued to increase for the second consecutive month in April (up 0.1%) , despite the sales ban on mobile carriers, helped by strong mobile phone exports and automobile production. Service output, which increased 0.5 percent in March, fell 0.1 percent in April as the Sewol ferry disaster had a negative effect on wholesale & retail, entertainment, cultural & sports services, and hotels & restaurants. Retail sales, which increased 1.8 percent in the previous month, fell 1.7 percent due to weak durable and semi-durable goods sales in the wake of the Sewol ferry disaster. Facility investment, which increased 1.2 percent in March, continued to improve in April, rising 2.6 percent, as investment in both transportation equipment and machinery increased. Construction completed also increased 6.9 percent month-onmonth after declining 3.8 percent in March.
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The composite index of coincident indicators fell 0.3 points month-on-month in April due to a fall in retail sales and service output, but the composite index of leading indicators rose 0.1 points. Exports in May fell 0.9 percent year-on-year due in part to 1.5 fewer days worked, but average daily exports increased and a trade surplus continued at US$5.35 billion. The stock market had plummeted in the beginning of May, but rebounded and remained stable as foreign investors bought more Korean shares than they sold. The value of the won rose. In May, housing prices across the country rose at a slower pace from 0.1 percent to 0.0 percent monthon-month, and the fall in prices in the Seoul metropolitan area accelerated from 0.02 percent to 0.1 percent. Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase at the same pace as the previous month, rising 0.1 percent owing to the ending of the spring moving season.
3 The Green Book
k
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
The economy continues to recover, but the recovery in the private sector has yet to fully take hold, and consumption and service industry indicators appear to be slowing down in the wake of the April Sewol ferry disaster. The Korean government will continue to closely monitor internal and external economic trends as external risks remain, including US quantitative easing tapering, uncertainties in emerging
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends economies, and the weakening of the yen, and at the same time will work to help the economic recovery take hold and protect domestic markets from external shocks. The government will implement policies to support the working class and boost the economy, and will continue to successfully implement the Three-year Plan for Economic Innovation to strengthen Korea’s economic fundamentals.
4 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
1. External economic situation The global economy continues to recover, led by the US. However, downside risk factors remain, such as a slowdown in emerging economies and the possibility that the Japanese economy may contract as a result of the sales tax hike. Whether tensions between Ukraine and Russia ease and whether eurozone deflation concerns subside following the European Central Bank’s additional monetary stimulus are also causing uncertainties in the global economy.
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World GDP growth 6
(%)
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US
5
Industrial production in April declined 0.6 percent from the previous month, but the ISM Manufacturing Index, which forecasts business sentiment, posted 55.4 in May, rising for the fourth straight month.
ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 53.1 (Jan 2013) > 55.4 (Jul) > 57.3 (Nov) > 56.5 (Dec) > 51.3 (Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb) > 53.7 (Mar) > 54.9 (Apr) > 55.4 (May)
Private consumption continues to recover, with retail sales increasing 0.1 percent month-on-month in April and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rising to 83.0 in May.
The Green Book
The US economy is recovering from its first quarter slump (down 1.0%, annualized q-o-q) and regaining growth momentum, led by the private sector, such as employment and consumption. The housing market, which had been weak, is showing signs of recovery.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 58.4 (Jan 2013) > 81.0 (Jul) > 72.0 (Nov) >77.5 (Dec) > 79.4 (Jan 2014) > 78.3 (Feb) > 83.9 (Mar) > 81.7 (Apr) > 83.0 (May)
US GDP growth and industrial production Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board 10
(%)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
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2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends The housing market has picked up, with existing home sales (up 1.3%, m-o-m) and new home sales (up 6.4%, m-o-m) increasing in April and home prices rising 0.9 percent month-on-month in March.
Nonfarm payrolls were up 217,000 in May, rising by more than 200,000 for the fourth consecutive month. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousand)
New home sales (m-o-m, %)
148 (Jan 2013) > 89 (Jul) > 274 (Nov) > 84 (Dec) > 144
13.5 (Jan 2013) > -20.0 (Jul) > 12.8 (Oct) > -1.1 (Nov) > -0.7
(Jan 2014) > 222 (Feb) > 203 (Mar) > 282 (Apr) > 217 (May)
(Dec) > 3.4 (Jan 2014) > -4.4 (Feb) > -6.9 (Mar) > 6.4 (Apr) Nonfarm payroll increase in May by industry (Out of
6
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (q-o-q, %)
217,000 jobs added, thousand)
0.7 (Q1 2013) > 6.0 (Q2) > 5.3 (Q3)
216 (private sector): 2 (mining), 10 (manufacturing),
0.2 (Oct 2013) > -0.1 (Nov) > -0.1 (Dec) > -0.1 (Jan 2014) >
6 (construction), 198 (service)
0.0 (Feb) > 0.9 (Mar)
1 (public sector)
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
800 600
(thousand)
(%)
12 10
400 200
8
0
6
-200
4
-400 -600
2
-800
0
-1000 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2013.1
2014.1
Unemployment rate (right)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Jan
2014¹ Feb Mar
Apr
May
Real GDP²
2.8
1.9
1.1
2.5
4.1
2.6
-1.0
-
-
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditure
2.2
2.0
2.3
1.8
2.0
3.3
3.1
-
-
-
-
-
- Corporate fixed investment - Housing construction investment Industrial production
7.3
2.7
-4.6
4.7
4.8
5.7
-1.6
-
-
-
-
-
12.9
12.2
12.5
14.2
10.3
7.9
-5.0
-
-
-
-
-
3.8
2.9
1.0
0.5
0.6
1.2
1.1
-0.2
1.1
0.9
-0.6
-
Retail sales
5.1
4.2
1.5
0.5
0.9
0.9
0.2
-0.9
0.9
1.5
0.1
-
Existing home sales
8.9
8.9
0.7
3.5
4.4
-7.1
-6.9
-5.1
-0.4
-0.2
1.3
-
Unemployment rate³
8.1
7.4
7.7
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.3
6.3
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.1
1.5
1.7
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.5
2.0
-
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
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China The Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014, a slight slowdown compared to the 7.7 percent growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2013, and major indicators such as industrial production and retail sales continued to slow down.
outlook for China’s property industry from stable to negative. However, the manufacturing PMI continued to rise. Manufacturing PMI (base=50)
The slowing real estate market poses risks to the Chinese economy. Moody’s recently lowered its
51.0 (Dec 2013) > 50.5 (Jan 2014) > 50.2 (Feb) > 50.3 (Mar) > 50.4 (Apr) > 50.8 (May)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Real GDP
9.3
7.7
2013¹ Q2 Q3
Q4 7.7
7.8
2014¹ Mar Apr
Dec
Q1
-
7.4
-
-
9.7
8.7
8.8
8.7
7.9
7.7
7.7
7.5
Industrial production
13.9
10.0 10.0
9.7
9.5
9.1 10.1 10.0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
23.8
20.6 20.6
19.6 20.9 20.1 20.2 19.6 19.6 17.6
17.6 17.3
Retail sales
17.1
14.3 14.9
13.1 12.4 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 12.0
12.2 11.9
Exports
20.7
8.3
9.5
8.6 18.9
4.2
4.0
7.5
4.3 -4.7
Consumer prices²
5.4
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.8
2.9
2.5
Producer prices²
6.0
-1.7 -2.3
2.4
2.3
-1.9 -1.7 -2.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 -2.0
-6.6
0.9
2.4
1.8
The Green Book
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
7
-2.3 -2.0
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 18
(%) 70
(%)
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
Japan The Japanese economy improved in the first quarter of 2014 as demand rose ahead of a sales tax hike (5% > 8%) that began on April 1, but retail sales and industrial production contracted in April due to a high base effect. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4 percent month-on-month in April, while the core CPI increased 3.2 percent.
(Percentage change from previous period)
8
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014¹ Feb Mar
Apr
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Real GDP
-0.5
1.4
0.0
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.2
0.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
1.3
0.6
2.8
-2.3
0.3
-2.5
Retail sales
-1.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
3.9
0.3
6.4
-13.7
Exports (y-o-y)
-2.7
-2.8
-5.5
9.7
1.2
7.1
12.8
17.4
7.0
9.8
1.8
5.1
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
3.4
1. Preliminary Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 6
(%)
25
(%)
20
4
15 10
2
5 0
0 -5
-2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -25
-6
-30
-8 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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Eurozone The eurozone continues on a gradual recovery path, but deflation concerns persist as consumer price growth remains weak. In order to head off deflation and drive growth, the ECB decided on June 5 to lower its benchmark interest rate (0.25% > 0.15%) and deposit rate for banks (0.0% > -0.1%) in addition to introducing a long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) worth 400 billion euros.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Jan
2014¹ Feb Mar
Apr
May
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
-
-
-
-
-
Industrial production
-2.5
-0.7
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
-
-
Retail sales
-1.7
-0.9
0.0
0.1
0.5
-0.4
0.7
1.0
0.2
0.1
0.4
-
Exports (y-o-y)
7.6
1.0
1.0
1.8
0.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-0.7
-
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.5
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.5
The Green Book
Real GDP
9
1. Preliminary Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat 3
(%)
(%)
2
10 8 6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -10
-3
-12
-4 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
EB 6월호 내지.indd 9
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
2. Private consumption
Private consumption in the first quarter of 2014 (preliminary GDP) increased 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and 2.5 percent compared to a year ago.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 Annual Annual
Q1
2012¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
2014¹ Q1
Private consumption²
2.9
1.9
0.8
0.2
1.2
0.4
2.0
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.2
(y-o-y)
-
-
1.7
0.7
2.6
2.7
-
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption
10
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 8
(%)
6
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in April fell 1.7 percent compared to the previous month as durable goods (down 0.3%) , semi-durable goods (down 3.0%) and nondurable
goods (down 1.9%) all declined. Compared to the same period in the previous year, retail sales fell 0.1 percent.
Retail sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15
(%)
10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
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2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
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Retail sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Durable goods
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q3 (y-o-y) - Durable goods² · Automobiles - Semi-durable goods³ - Nondurable goods4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
Q1¹
2014¹ Mar¹ Apr¹
-
-
1.4
-0.1
-
-1.0
0.9
0.8
0.3
-1.2
0.4
1.8
-1.7
4.5 10.3 7.0 4.2 2.1
2.4 5.3 2.4 -0.4 2.0
2.7 3.2 -4.4 -0.1 1.3
2.5 2.1 12.0 1.1 -1.8
0.8 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.6
0.3 -4.1 -7.2 1.4 -0.6
1.2 1.8 2.2 -0.4 1.3
0.7 -0.3 2.1 0.9 1.5
1.2 0.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.8
0.2 -2.1 -4.4 -0.7 -0.7
2.5 4.4 12.0 -1.3 -1.0
2.1 -6.1 -0.8 3.6 5.5
-0.1 -0.3 6.6 -3.0 -1.9
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.
The Green Book
Retail sales
Q4
11
3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
Retail sales are likely to improve in May, due to holidays in the beginning of the month and as the impact of the Sewol ferry disaster gradually fades.
Wireless service sales
Domestic sales of cars grew slower compared with a year ago, while wireless service sales greatly improved after the temporary sales ban on wireless carriers were lifted on May 19.
Sales at department stores and large discount stores rose for the first time in four months. However, uncertainties remain, such as the slowing growth of credit card use.
(thousands, Korea Telecommunications Operators Association) 1,226(Jan2014)> 1,297(Feb)> 592(Mar)> 398(Apr)> 890(May)
(y-o-y, %)
Oct
2013 Nov
Dec
Jan
5.1
4.2
3.6
9.1
Department store sales
-2.2
5.3
-0.3
Large discount store sales
-6.4
1.0
-5.7
Domestic sales of gasoline
-2.0
0.4
2.6
Domestic sales of cars
-3.0
-8.5
-11.8
Credit card use
Feb
2014 Mar
Apr
May
2.5
7.0
5.2
3.8
6.8
-2.4
-1.1
-1.4
2.0
18.6
-23.1
-3.7
-4.1
1.7
-2.9
2.2
-0.2
-0.9
4.2
4.1
9.6
0.9
10.1
3.9
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for May data)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) declined 1.9 percent quarter-on-quarter but rose 5.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2014.
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
Annual
2012 Q3
Q4
Annual¹
Facility investment²
0.1
-3.2
-3.3
-1.5
(y-o-y)
-
-3.4
-6.4
-
0.3
-4.4
-5.3
-3.5
-2.6
4.4
-0.4
0.1
1.8
4.0
11.3
-6.4
- Machinery - Transportation equipment
2013¹ Q2
Q3
1.5
1.0
-12.7
-3.9
Q1
Q4
2014¹ Q1
2.7
5.6
-1.9
1.5
10.9
7.3
6.5
3.7
-4.9
-6.5
10.7
5.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
12 Facility investment E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40 (%) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
The facility investment index in April rose 2.6 percent month-on-month as both transportation equipment investment and machinery investment increased. The index rose 10.7 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012 Annual Annual Facility investment index
2013 Q2
1
Q1
Q3
Q4
Q1¹
Jan
2014¹ Feb
Mar¹
Apr¹
-2.8
-1.3
-3.1
1.1
5.0
5.9
-5.3
-4.4
-0.6
1.2
2.6
-
-
-13.1
-4.0
2.7
10.4
5.8
-1.6
12.3
7.0
10.7
- Machinery
-2.7
-2.6
-3.5
2.9
4.5
7.3
-8.7
-8.7
2.8
-0.9
1.8
- Transportation equipment
-3.0
2.3
-2.0
-4.0
6.4
2.5
4.7
8.0
-9.3
7.7
3.9
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
EB 6월호 내지.indd 12
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 60 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Transportation equipment
2014.Q1
13
Machinery
Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 77 (Sep 2013) > 82 (Oct) > 83 (Nov) > 78 (Dec) > 79 (Jan 2014) > 81 (Feb) > 85 (Mar) > 86 (Apr) > 86 (May) > 81 (Jun)
The Green Book
The facility investment outlook is mixed, as machinery orders and the average manufacturing operation ratio have been improving but corporate investment sentiment has been falling.
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 11
(trillion won)
80
(y-o-y, %)
70
10
60
9
50 40
8
30
7
20 10
6
0
5
-10 -20
4
-30
3
-40
2
-50
2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
EB 6월호 내지.indd 13
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012 Annual Annual Domestic machinery orders
-13.9
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
6.7
2013¹ Q2
Q1 -11.4
Q3
Q4
Q1¹
Jan
2014¹ Feb Mar¹
Apr¹
2.2
32.4
17.9
-7.1
10.9
25.7
-6.9
27.7
-2.3
3.9
7.0
8.8
-
-
6.8
3.9
-Public
-11.0
20.6
-47.0
94.2
-Private
-14.2
5.2
-6.1
4.0
45.7
33.1 -12.9
-9.7 129.7 184.6 -36.9 -28.8 735.6 3.8
22.1
4.1
-4.7
15.4
8.8
3.0
26.6
Machinery imports
-3.0
6.5
-11.8
-2.1
6.8
13.2
2.3
-9.9
11.9
5.7
14.9
Average manufacturing operation ratio
78.5
76.2
77.3
75.9
75.1
76.6
77.1
78.2
75.8
77.2
77.5
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-0.7
-1.4
-2.6
-1.6
-1.7
0.3
-0.6
-5.9
2.9
1.5
1.3
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
14 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
4. Construction investment
Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the first quarter of 2014 rose 5.1 percent quarter-onquarter and 5.5 percent year-on-year.
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012¹ Q3
Q4
Annual
-3.9
1.2
-2.4
-
-2.7
-6.2
- Building construction
-1.6
1.7
- Civil engineering works
-7.1
0.4
Annual Construction investment² (y-o-y)
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
2014¹ Q1¹
6.7
6.5
4.6
0.2
-5.2
5.1
-
1.9
9.8
8.8
5.4
5.5
-1.6
8.8
5.4
7.2
0.5
-4.0
5.1
-3.6
3.7
8.1
1.0
-0.1
-6.9
5.1
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 15
(%)
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
EB 6월호 내지.indd 14
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
The value of construction completed (constant) in April rose 6.9 percent month-on-month as both building construction and civil engineering works increased. The index rose 2.9 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
2012 Annual Annual -5.0 10.1 -6.6 14.8 -3.0 4.3
2013 Q2 Q3 6.3 -0.1 15.0 10.5 7.7 0.4 4.6 -0.9
Q1 3.5 4.4 5.6 1.0
Q4 -0.7 9.7 2.9 -5.5
Q1¹ 1.4 6.4 5.9 -5.1
Jan 8.4 11.4 10.9 4.6
2014¹ Feb Mar¹ -3.4 -3.8 6.6 2.2 -2.0 -4.1 -5.6 -3.3
Apr¹ 6.9 2.9 8.7 4.0
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40
(y-o-y, %)
15
30 20
0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
The Green Book
10
Civil engineering works
Construction investment is expected to improve as unsold new houses are declining and new apartment sales are increasing. Unsold houses (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 68 (Jul 2013) > 68 (Aug) > 66 (Sep) > 64 (Oct) > 64 (Nov) > 61 (Dec) > 59 (Jan 2014) > 52 (Feb) > 48 (Mar) > 46 (Apr) New apartment sales (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 14 (Jul 2013) > 28 (Aug) > 24 (Sep) > 50 (Oct) > 44 (Nov) > 12 (Dec) > 6 (Jan 2014) > 11 (Feb) > 24 (Mar) > 39 (Apr) > 37 (May) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
2012 Annual -6.2 -4.7 -9.1 -0.5
Annual -15.3 -13.4 -19.2 -7.3
Q1 -40.8 -2.2 -34.0 -50.4 -12.4
2013 Q2 Q3 -29.5 -10.6 0.3 16.8 -29.6 -10.8 -29.4 -10.0 -14.6 -3.4
Q4 22.4 2.8 17.9 33.4 -0.2
Q1¹ Jan 15.8 49.5 -1.2 4.2 11.2 70.5 24.4 26.9 18.4 -16.4
2014¹ Feb 21.7 13.8 1.8 67.1 66.1
Mar¹ -11.0 -33.2 -9.5 -14.8 13.0
Apr¹ 42.2 50.6 59.5 14.5 34.7
1. Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
EB 6월호 내지.indd 15
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 340
(y-o-y, %)
290 240 190 140 90 40 -10 -60 -110 -160 2004.1
16
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Construction orders
2014.1
Building permit area
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
5. Exports and Imports
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 30.0 (vessels), 11.9 (petroleum products), 9.6 (steel), -0.5 (automobiles), -1.1 (semiconductors), -10.0 (mobile phones) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 32.0 (EU), 4.5 (US), -0.8 (Japan), -2.0 (ASEAN countries),
Exports in May declined 0.9 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$47.88 billion.
-9.4 (China)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was up 6.0 percent year-on-year, posting US$2.23 billion in May.
Exports declined for the first time in four months due to fewer days worked (down 1.5 days). Shipments of vessels, petroleum products and steel continued to grow, while shipments of mobile phones fell due to a high base effect. By region, shipments to the advanced economies increased.
Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) -0.1 (Dec 2013) > 8.9 (Jan 2014) > -3.3 (Feb) > 1.5 (Mar) > 9.0 (Apr) > 6.0 (May)
(US$ billion)
2013 Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
2014
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Q1
Mar
Apr
May¹
559.63
135.32
141.16
136.79
146.37
48.31
137.60
49.09
50.31
47.88
2.1
0.3
0.7
2.8
4.7
3.1
1.7
3.7
9.0
-0.9
2.05
2.02
2.06
2.00
2.11
2.10
2.07
2.13
2.10
2.23
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
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14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Exports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 140 120
(y-o-y, %)
100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Export growth rate
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Semiconductors
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Automobiles
Steel
17
Imports in May rose 0.3 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$42.53 billion.
Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) -0.6 (commodities), -0.5 (capital goods), 7.4 (consumer goods) (US$ billion)
Imports
Annual
Q1
2013 Q2 Q3
2014 Q4
May
Q1
Mar
Apr
May¹
515.58
129.73
126.76
126.03
133.06
42.39
132.39
45.54
45.85
42.53
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
-2.9
-2.8
0.3
2.5
-4.7
2.1
3.6
5.0
0.3
Average daily imports
1.89
1.94
1.85
1.84
1.91
1.84
1.99
1.98
1.91
1.98
The Green Book
Despite a decrease in days worked, imports rose due to strong consumer goods imports. Average daily imports rose 7.3 percent year-on-year.
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 80
(y-o-y, %)
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Import growth rate
EB 6월호 내지.indd 17
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Commodities
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital goods
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Exports and imports Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 70
(US$ billion)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2004.1
18
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Trade balance
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Exports
Imports
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The trade balance (preliminary) in May remained in the black for the 28th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US$5.35 billion. (US$ billion)
Trade balance
Annual
Q1
44.05
5.59
2013 Q2 14.40
2014 Q3
Q4
May
Q1
Mar
Apr
May¹
10.76
13.30
5.92
5.20
3.54
4.46
5.35
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in April, led by mining and utilities. Compared to the same period in the previous year, mining and manufacturing production was up 2.4 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of processed metals (down 6.6%) , automobiles (down 2.5%) and medical, precision & optical instruments
EB 6월호 내지.indd 18
(down 10.2%) fell, while other transportation equipment (up 10.6%), chemical products (up 3.4%) and pharmaceuticals (up 7.2%) rose. Compared to a year ago, production of other transportation equipment (down 15.6%) and nonmetallic minerals (down 1.9%) declined, while automobiles (up 11.9%), refined petroleum (up 15.3%) and chemical products (up 5.2%) rose.
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
Inventories of semiconductors & parts (up 1.6%) , electrical equipment (up 5.1%) and primary metals (up 3.1%) rose, while mechanical equipment (down 1.7%) , petroleum products (down 1.4%) and other products (down 8.2%) declined.
Shipments of chemical products (up 3.4%), other transportation equipment (up 7.9%) and clothing & fur (up 4.0%) climbed, while processed metals (down 7.9%) , audio-visual communications equipment (down 7.8%) and refined petroleum (down 2.9%) declined.
The Green Book
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 2.3 percentage points month-on-month as inventories rose 1.5 percent and shipments fell 0.5 percent.
19
The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 77.5 percent.
Shipment and inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 10 8
(m-o-m, %)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1
2005.1
Shipment growth
EB 6월호 내지.indd 19
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Inventory growth
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 100
(%)
90 80 70 60 50 2004.1
20
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
In May, mining and manufacturing production is expected to be affected by positive factors, such as improving consumption and the end of the sales ban on wireless carriers, and negative factors, such as fewer days worked and the possibility that the negative impact of the Sewol ferry disaster may persist.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
(Percentage change from previous period)
Annual Mining production (q-o-q, m-o-m) (y-o-y) Manufacturing production (q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic demand - Exports Inventory³ Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity4
0.3 0.3 0.4 -1.4 2.3 5.0 76.2 1.7
Q1
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4
Apr
Q1¹
2014¹ Feb Mar¹ Apr¹
-0.5 -0.9 0.1 1.9 0.3 0.3 -2.1 0.9 0.1 -0.8 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.6 3.9 2.6 2.4 -0.4 -1.0 0.0 2.1 0.2 0.3 -2.3 1.0 0.0 -0.8 0.0 0.1 1.8 2.1 0.6 4.1 2.7 2.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 1.7 -0.3 -0.2 -1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.7 -1.1 1.6 1.7 -0.1 0.0 -1.1 0.7 0.8 1.6 -0.2 -2.0 1.6 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 2.4 -1.9 -0.6 -2.1 5.7 2.4 -0.9 -0.5 -1.2 1.5 1.5 77.3 75.9 75.1 76.6 75.9 77.1 75.8 77.2 77.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
4. Percentage change from same period in previous year
Source: Statistics Korea
7. Service sector activity Service output in April fell 1.0 percent month-on-month, led by wholesale & retail (down 1.8%), entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 11.6%) and hotels & restaurants (down 3.2%). Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 0.9 percent. Wholesale & retail fell as sales at department stores and large discount stores declined in the wake of the Sewol ferry disaster. Entertainment, cultural & sports services and hotels & restaurants also fell, negatively affected by the ferry disaster.
EB 6월호 내지.indd 20
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Real estate & renting rose 2.7 percent, and membership organizations & personal services were up 3.5 percent. Service output is likely to improve in May, led by wholesale & retail. However, financial & insurance services are expected to slow down. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 4.6 (Dec 2013) > 5.5 (Jan 2014) > 5.4 (Feb) > 5.6 (Mar) > 5.6 (Apr) > 5.5 (May)
Service sector activity Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 20
(%)
15
21
10 5
-5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
The Green Book
0
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 2013 Weight Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2
Q3
Q4
Service activity index
100.0
1.6
0.1
- Wholesale & retail
21.6
0.8
0.3
1.4
0.2
-0.2 -0.8
0.4
0.2
0.9
0.4
0.5
-1.0
0.1 -0.1
0.6
0.0
0.8
-1.8
0.6
1.1
0.6
0.5
2.7 -0.9 -1.6
2.3
-3.2
- Transportation services
8.5
1.2 -0.1
1.1
0.7
0.1 -1.0
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2
-1.2 -2.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
8.4
0.6 -1.0
- Publishing & communications services
2014¹ Q1¹ Mar¹ Apr¹
3.0 -0.3
1.9
3.4 -2.0 -1.6
-1.4
14.7
2.8
1.0
0.5 -0.1 -1.1 -0.5
0.6
2.7
1.4
-1.3
- Real estate & renting
5.3
-4.8
0.7
2.5 -2.2
7.4 -3.6
3.6 -3.4
3.8
2.7
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
3.7 -0.2
3.3
0.2
4.9 -2.9
0.7 -0.1 -0.7
1.9
- Business services
3.3
3.5
0.2
2.2
1.6 -0.4
1.6
0.4
1.6
2.5
-1.9
- Education services
10.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8 -1.0
1.2
0.7
1.0 -0.7
-0.8
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
6.7
0.7
5.0
0.8
1.1
2.5
1.6
1.5
0.1
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.8 -3.0
-0.5
1.7
0.6
3.5 -11.6
- Membership organizations & personal services - Sewerage & waste management
3.6
-1.4
0.0
5.3
0.6
-0.6 -4.3
-0.4
- Financial & insurance services
0.9
0.2 -0.2
1.4
3.1 -0.7
3.5
0.2
0.3 -7.3
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.2
0.6
6.1
0.0 3.5 -2.9
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
EB 6월호 내지.indd 21
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends April 2014 service output by business Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 12
(y-o-y, %)
10
Real estate & renting
8 6 4
Transportation services
2
Publishing & communications services
Professional, scientific & technical services
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
Education services
Sewerage & waste management
0 -2
Total index Wholesale & retail
-4 -6
Hotels & restaurants
Financial & insurance services
Business services
Health & social welfare services
Membership organizations & personal services
-8 -10 -12
22 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in April increased by 581,000 from a year earlier to 25,680,000 and the employment rate rose 0.8 percentage points to 60.6 percent. By industry, services added over 500,000 jobs, while employment slowed in manufacturing. By employment status, the number of regular workers continued to increase, but nonwage workers decreased.
Number of persons employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 1,000
(thousands)
(millions)
800
26 26 25
600
25 24
400
24 200
23 23
0
22
-200
22
-400 2004.1
21 2005.1
2006.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
EB 6월호 내지.indd 22
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) (%)
62 61 60 59 58 57
56 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Original data
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
Employment by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
23
100
80 71.0 70.8 70.3 69.7 69.2 69.1 69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7
40 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 20
0
16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 4.4 4.7 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 2012.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Services
9
10
11
12 2013.1 2
3
Construction
4
5
6
7
8
9
Manufacturing
10
11
12 2014.1 2
The Green Book
60
5.3 6.1 3
4
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8
80
23.1 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0
60
19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5
40 45.4 45.4 44.9 44.3 44.0 44.4 44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 20
0 2012.1 2
3
4
5
Unpaid family workers
EB 6월호 내지.indd 23
6
7
8
9
10
11
12 2013.1 2
Self-employed workers
3
4
Daily workers
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Temporary workers
12 2014.1 2
3
4
Regular workers
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Number of employed (millions)
Q4
Apr
2014 Q1 Mar Apr
23.83 24.24 24.68 24.99 24.80 25.07 24.18 25.33 25.41 25.35 25.10 24.91 25.16 25.68
Employment rate (%)
58.7 59.1 59.4 60.0 59.4 59.5 57.7 60.2 60.3 60.0 59.8 58.8 59.4 60.6
(Seasonally adjusted)
58.7 59.1 59.4 59.5 59.3 59.5 59.2 59.4 59.7 59.9 59.4 60.4 60.2 60.2
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
323 415 437 506 342 386 257 324 421 541 345 729 649
581
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
405 440 451 504 344 394 266 351 402 556 367 717 690
610
- Manufacturing
191
63
14
85 140
33
-2
22
17 -40
- Construction - Services
24
2013 Q2 Q3
79 119 122 -19 -64
-6
26 4
49 165 123 143 -9 -10
27
96
5
-3
200 386 416 397 236 318 199 212 354 507 184 570 551
531
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-82
12 -41
-29
- Wage workers
517 427 315 317 303 483 329 472 526 604 466 711 654
589
· Regular workers
697 575 436 485 469 615 554 638 632 637 659 606 524
532
· Temporary workers
-34
74 157
154
31 -27
-97
-25
-78
-14
2
-2
-2 -79 -109
-8
-9 -27
19 -15 -22
-96 -152 -169 -65
2 -202
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
· Daily workers
-146
-70 -120 -89 -57
-37 -73
- Nonwage workers
-194
-11 121 189
39
-97 -71 -148 -105 -63 -120
19
· Self-employed workers
-118
1 124 143
33
-67 -28 -104 -83 -54 -90
-7 -18
-3
- Male
181 238 234 284 172 186 123 179 179 262 189 373 285
289
- Female
142 177 203 223 170 200 135 145 242 279 156 357 364
292
- 15 to 29
-43
-35
-36 -57 -80
-50 -117 -88 -41
- 30 to 39
-4
-47
-31
-21 -15
- 40 to 49
29
57
11
- 50 to 59 - 60 or more
33 -10 12
-3
22
12
3 -42 -35
46 -133
8 -34 -42 -6
30
9
53
34 1
97
-5
-8
69
94
-6 -24
-60
99
97
68
294 291 270 273 220 254 196 254 279 285 264 323 292
273
47 149 222 245 215 181 181 156 187 200 179 218 215
206
Source: Statistics Korea
The number of unemployed persons in April increased by 205,000 year-on-year to 1,030,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.7 percentage points to 3.9 percent. The unemployment rate rose in all age groups.
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 6
(%)
5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 6월호 내지.indd 24
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Apr Q1 Number of unemployed (thousands)
2014 Mar Apr
920
855
820 770 722
807 907 812 777 733 825 1,031 1,024 1,030
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
31
-65
-35 -16 -18
-13 -40 -29
- Male
-7
-48
-26 -16 -13
- Female
38
-17
-9
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7
(Seasonally adjusted)
7 11 -70
125
141
205
-6 -7 -20 11 -7 -46
40
74
95
0 -6
-7 -33 -9 -4 18 -24
84
67
110
3.4
3.2 3.0 2.8
3.1 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.2 3.1 3.0
3.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1
3.5
3.5
3.7
-15 to 29
8.0
7.6
7.5 6.8 7.0
8.0 8.4 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.4
9.8
9.9 10.0
- 30 to 39
3.5
3.4
3.0 2.8 2.7
3.0 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.6 3.1
3.2
3.4
3.6
- 40 to 49
2.5
2.1
2.0 2.0 1.8
2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.2
2.3
2.4
2.6
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.1
2.1 2.2 1.8
1.9 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9
2.2
2.4
2.3
- 60 or more
2.8
2.6
2.4 1.9 1.6
1.8 3.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.3
4.4
3.0
2.0
Source: Statistics Korea
The number of those economically inactive due to old age (up 110,000, y-o-y) and disabilities (up 16,000, y-o-y) increased, while those due to housework (down 184,000, y-o-y), rest (down 175,000, y-o-y), education (down 56,000, y-o-y) and childcare (down 53,000, y-o-y) decreased.
The Green Book
The economically inactive population in April was down 374,000 from a year earlier to 15,700,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 1.3 percentage points to 63.0 percent.
25
Labor force participation rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 65 (%) 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 6월호 내지.indd 25
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4
2014 Q1 Mar Apr
Apr
Economically inactive population (millions) 15.84 15.95 16.08 15.90 16.26 16.22 16.83 15.91 15.98 16.17 16.07 16.40 16.19 15.70 Labor force participation rate (%)
61.0 61.1 61.3 61.8 61.1 61.5 59.9 62.2 62.1 61.7 61.7 61.3 61.8 63.0
(seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
61.0 61.1 61.3 61.4 61.1 61.5 61.2 61.3 61.6 61.7 61.3 62.6 62.4 62.6 143
112
128
- Childcare
-125
-5
-2
- Housework
201
101
123 101 126
-3 143
- Education
12
-51
-12
77 118 147
88 -44 164 -76 -61
-56
- Old age
80
-45
148 156 186
54 154
7
32
21
110
-56
182
-53 -142 -125
-7 -106
44
12
21
- Rest
26
57 244 -7
5
-3
39
141 336 242 1
0
10
78 -91 269 -433 -372 -374 9 -14
36 -80 -112
6 -29 -55
-53
41 -230 -202 -184
4
80
96
71 -197 -174 -175
Source: Statistics Korea
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI in May rose 1.7 percent to 1,995 points from 1,962 points in the previous month. The KOSPI started rising in mid-May as expectations over a strong won eased and foreign investors became net buyers of shares.
Stock prices 2,200 2,000
(monthly average)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
KOSPI
EB 6월호 내지.indd 26
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
KOSDAQ
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
(End-period)
Apr 2014
KOSPI May 2014
Change¹
Stock price index (points)
1,961.8
1,995.0
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,168.0
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
Apr 2014
KOSDAQ May 2014
Change¹
33.2 (1.7%)
559.3
546.5
-12.8 (-2.3%)
1,192.6
24.6 (2.1%)
134.6
132.0
-2.6 (-1.9%)
3.6
3.7
0.1 (2.8%)
2.1
1.9
-0.2 (-9.5%)
35.1
35.5
0.4 (1.1%)
10.6
10.7
0.1 (0.9%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate
The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell from 1,009.2 won in April to 1,003.8 won in May, as the yen lost appeal as a safe-haven asset and the current account surplus continued in Korea. (End-period)
2008 Dec
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
2014 Apr
May
Change¹
Dollar-Won
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,033.2
1,020.1
1.3
100 Yen-Won
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
1,009.2
1,003.8
0.5
27 The Green Book
The dollar-won exchange rate in May fell 13.1 won to 1,020.1 won from 1,033.2 won at the end of April. The dollar-won exchange rate declined due to the weakening of the dollar, continuing current account surplus, and foreign investors’ buying of Korean shares.
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
Foreign exchange rates 1,800
(month-end, \)
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1
2005.1
Dollar-Won
EB 6월호 내지.indd 27
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
100 Yen-Won
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Daily foreign exchange rate trend 1,800
(\)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dollar-Won
100 Yen-Won
28
9.3 Bond market E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 2.87 percent in April to 2.82 percent in May. Treasury bond yields declined as global bond yields fell and demand from foreign and domestic investors increased.
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea 10 9
(monthly average, yearly, %)
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2013.1
2014.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(End-period, %)
Call rate (1 day)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr
May
Change¹
2.01
2.51
3.29
2.77
2.52
2.49
2.49
2.50
2.49
-1
CD (91 days)
2.88
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.66
2.65
2.65
2.65
2.65
-
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.44
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.86
2.85
2.87
2.87
2.82
-5
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.56
4.27
4.21
3.29
3.29
3.28
3.30
3.30
3.24
-6
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.98
4.08
3.46
2.97
3.23
3.13
3.16
3.17
3.04
-13
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
EB 6월호 내지.indd 28
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
9.4 Money supply & money market
M2 (monthly average) in March rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier. Money supply in the overseas sector declined as the current account surplus contracted, but private sector credit expanded due to an increase in loans.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2009 Annual
2010 Annual
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
2013 Annual
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
Mar¹
M1²
16.3
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
10.9
9.8
10.1
520.3
M2
10.3
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
5.2
5.2
5.5
1,965.0
Lf ³
7.9
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
6.7
6.4
6.4
2,659.4
1. Balance at end March 2014, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs
29
3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
The Green Book
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2004.1
2005.1
Reserve money
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
M1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Lf
Bank deposits fell, as instant access deposits (-3.2 trillion won > -4.6 trillion won) and time deposits (3.1 trillion won >-1.2 trillion won) declined due to corporate tax payments and local government expenditures. Asset management company (AMC) deposits continued to fall, but at a slower rate, thanks to an increase in fixed-income funds (-2.4 trillion won > 2.0 trillion won), as money flowed in from institutional funds, including the National Pension Fund. Money market funds (MMF) (-3.3. trillion won > -3.3 trillion won) continued to fall, mainly due to VAT tax payments.
EB 6월호 내지.indd 29
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends (Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
Apr
Apr¹
Bank deposits
54.8
36.9
58.9
37.0
41.0
1.3
11.7
-0.7
-3.3
1,185.8
AMC deposits
-27.6
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
17.7
8.5
6.7
-5.6
-3.1
341.5
1. Balance at end April 2014, trillion won
Deposits in financial institutions Source: The Bank of Korea 30
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
20
30
10
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
0
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
10. Balance of payments
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Korea’s current account (preliminary) in April posted a surplus of US$7.12 billion, staying in the black for 26 consecutive months. The goods account surplus expanded from US$7.97 billion in March to US$10.65 billion in April, due to rising exports and slightly decreasing imports. Goods exports (US$ billion) 54.10 (Mar 2014) > 56.72 (Apr) Goods imports (US$ billion) 46.12 (Mar 2014) > 46.07 (Apr)
EB 6월호 내지.indd 30
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)
Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus expanded by US$5.55 billion as exports rose 5.1 percent.
18.8 (vessels), 17.2 (steel), 16.7 (automobiles), 14.3 (mobile phones), 12.3 (semiconductors) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %)
The services account deficit expanded from US$0.65 billion to US$1.04 billion as the transportation and travel accounts deteriorated.
19.3 (US), -3.3 (EU), 17.0 (ASEAN countries), 2.4 (China), 12.2 (Japan) Services account (US$ billion, March > April)
The primary income account switched from a surplus of US$0.32 billion to a deficit of US$1.62 billion due to overseas dividend payments, while the secondary income account deficit expanded from US$0.36 billion to US$0.86 billion.
-0.45 > -0.51 (manufacturing), 0.59 > 0.25 (transportation), -0.26 > -0.54 (travel), 1.21 > 1.25 (construction), -1.01 > -0.27 (intellectual property rights), -0.70 > -1.13 (other business)
31
Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
10
The Green Book
12
(US$ billion)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Services account
Goods account
2014.1
Current account
(US$ billion)
2013¹ Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Apr
Q1
2014¹ Feb Mar
Apr
Current account
79.88
10.46
20.80
23.78
24.84
4.55
15.07
4.50
7.29
7.12
- Goods balance
80.57
12.08
20.00
23.88
24.62
5.10
17.75
5.40
7.97
10.65
- Service balance
-7.93
-3.51
-0.41
-2.06
-1.94
0.01
-3.62
-1.06
-0.65
-1.04
- Primary income balance
11.42
2.78
1.84
3.16
3.64
-0.35
1.91
0.37
0.32
-1.62
- Secondary income balance
-4.18
-0.89
-0.62
-1.19
-1.48
-0.20
-0.96
-0.22
-0.36
-0.86
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 6월호 내지.indd 31
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends The capital and financial account (preliminary) in April posted a net outflow of US$6.24 billion.
foreign investors’ equity investment switched to a net inflow.
Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion)
Net inflows of financial derivatives investment expanded from US$0.51 billion to US$0.86 billion, while net outflows of other investment expanded from US$0.47 billion to US$5.94 billion due to increased lending by financial firms and a rise in overseas deposits.
-8.40 (Nov 2013) > -7.75 (Dec) > -4.48 (Jan 2014) > -6.92 (Feb) > -5.78 (Mar) > -6.24 (Apr)
Net outflows of direct investment expanded from US$2.02 billion to US$2.16 billion, led by Koreans' foreign direct investment. Portfolio investment switched from a net outflow of US$2.01 billion to a net inflow of US$1.66 billion as
32
The current account in May is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by the surplus in the goods account, which resulted from a trade surplus (US$5.35 billion).
Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
15
(US$ billion)
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Portfolio investment
11. Prices and international commodity prices
EB 6월호 내지.indd 32
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Financial derivatives
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital & financial account
11.1 Prices Consumer prices in May rose 0.2 percent month-onmonth and 1.7 percent year-on-year. The pace of month-on-month rise has been maintaining a stable pace, whereas the year-on-year growth has been accelerating.
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Consumer price inflation
(%)
May
Jun
Jul
2013 Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
Apr
May
Month-on-Month
0.0
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
Year-on-Year
1.1
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.7
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 7
(%)
6 5
33
4 3
1 0 -1 -2 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
Gains in the prices of manufactured products and personal services offset declines in agricultural product prices. Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices fell 0.4 percent month-on-month. The prices of livestock products rose 0.8 percent, and agricultural product prices declined 1.3 percent. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) pork (1.7), cucumbers (-23.8), oriental melons (-15.1), zucchini (-24.6)
Manufactured product prices rose 0.3 percent
EB 6월호 내지.indd 33
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The Green Book
2
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
from the previous month, led by textiles (up 0.6%) , the price of which increased due to the rollout of new products for the summer and in line with the ending of seasonal discounts. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) hiking gear (12.5), toothpaste (12.2), sausages (5.9), women’s pants/shorts/skirts (3.1)
The prices of personal services rose 0.2 percent month-on-month, as travel costs increased due to seasonal demand. Dining out expenses rose 0.1 percent, while prices excluding dining out costs rose 0.3 percent.
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 5
(%p)
4 3 2 1 0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2012
2013
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured products
Housing rents
Public services
Personal services
Public utilities
34 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Consumer prices for basic necessities rose 1.4 percent year-on-year and remained unchanged from the previous month.
the previous month, fresh food prices fell 1.4 percent. Fresh food price increases (y-o-y, %)
Price increases for basic necessities (y-o-y, %)
-11.1 (Dec 2013) > -12.9 (Jan 2014) > -12.4 (Feb) > -11.3
0.5 (Dec 2013) > 0.6 (Jan 2014) > 0.4 (Feb) > 0.8 (Mar) >
(Mar) > -12.0 (Apr) > -9.2 (May)
1.0 (Apr) > 1.4 (May)
Fresh food prices declined 9.2 percent year-onyear, led by vegetables (down 18.8%). Compared to
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products and show long-term price trends, rose 2.2 percent year-on-year and 0.3 percent month-on-month.
Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 16
(y-o-y, %)
13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Consumer price inflation
EB 6월호 내지.indd 34
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Core inflation
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Producer price inflation
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Core inflation and prices for basic necessities
(y-o-y, %)
2013 2014 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3
2.2
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9
1.8
Consumer prices for basic necessities
0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.0
1.4
Source: Statistics Korea
The expected annual inflation fell 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 2.8 percent, while import prices fell 7.0 percent year-on-year. Expected inflation (%, over the next 12 months) 2.9 (Sep 2013) > 2.9 (Oct) > 2.9 (Nov) > 2.9 (Dec) > 2.9 (Jan 2014) > 2.9 (Feb) > 2.8 (Mar) > 2.9 (Apr) > 2.8 (May)
35
Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base)
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices rose in May as political turmoil in Ukraine and Libya escalated, and also as economic recovery in the advanced economies is forecast to boost demand.
WTI crude prices had risen until mid-May due to a decline in US crude inventories, but later fell due to the strong dollar and sluggish economic data in the US.
The Green Book
-8.1 (Sep 2013) > -7.3 (Oct) > -4.9 (Nov) > -3.5 (Dec) > -3.0 (Jan 2014) > -4.8 (Feb) > -4.5 (Mar) > -7.0 (Apr)
WTI crude ($/barrel) 99.8 (May 2) > 100.0 (May 9) > 102.0 (May 16) > 104.7 (May 23) > 102.7 (May 30)
(US$/barrel, period average)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
Apr
May
Dubai crude
105.9
109.0
105.3 103.5 107.1 107.9 105.6 105.5 107.5 104.0 105.0 104.4 104.6 105.6
Brent crude
111.0
111.7
108.7 107.7 110.8 111.6 109.3 108.0 110.7 107.7 108.9 107.7 107.8 109.4
95.1
93.8
WTI crude
98.0 104.7 106.7 106.2 100.5
94.0
97.9
94.9 100.7 100.5 102.0 101.8
Source: Korea PDS
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai crude
WTI
36 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Domestic oil product prices fell in May, as declines in international oil prices and exchange rates were reflected with a time lag. Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,872.4 (1st week May) > 1,870.5 (2nd week) > 1,868.3 (3rd week) > 1,866.6 (4th week)
(Won/liter, period average)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
Apr
May
Gasoline prices 1,929.3 1,985.8 1,925.5 1,933.1 1,947.7 1,934.6 1,907.3 1,880.0 1,881.1 1,886.4 1,880.7 1,880.8 1,875.9 1,869.5 Diesel prices
1,745.7 1,806.3 1,729.6 1,729.7 1,743.6 1,734.3 1,711.8 1,692.9 1,699.1 1,705.1 1,698.5 1,696.0 1,688.9 1,680.9
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
(thousand won/B)
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
EB 6월호 내지.indd 36
160
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
International grain prices fell in May as weather conditions in major production areas improved, while nonferrous metal prices rose due to declining inventories and expectations over the Chinese government’s stimulus measures . International grain prices declined as the weather in the US and South America improved and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast an increase in world grain inventories next year, and also on profittaking in the grain futures market. International grain prices in May (m-o-m, %) wheat (0.4), soybeans (-0.5), corn (-2.5)
Nikel prices continued to rise following Indonesia’s mineral export ban (effective from January 12), but the prices of other nonferrous metals were mixed. Nonferrous metal prices in May (m-o-m, %)
37
nickel (11.9), copper (3.2), zinc (1.5), lead (0.5), tin (-0.5), aluminum (-3.4)
(Period average)
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual 2,553
3,062
3,006
2,774
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
Apr
May
2,701 2,662 2,630 2,655 2,623 2,642 2,574 2,586 2,641 2,650 2,608
The Green Book
Reuters index*
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
International commodity prices Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 4000
470 430
3000
390 350
2000
310 270
1000
230 190 150
0
2004.1
2005.1
CRB (left)
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2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Reuters index (right)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
Apartment sales prices rose in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.1%). Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.1 percent.
Nationwide apartment sales prices in May remained unchanged from the previous month.
Apartment sales price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %)
Apartment sales prices fell in the Seoul metropolitan area (down 0.1%), which includes Seoul (down 0.1%) and Gyeonggi Province (down 0.1%).
38
Busan (0.0), Daegu (0.4), Gwangju (0.0), Daejeon (-0.0), Ulsan (0.3)
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Nationwide
2013 Oct Nov
Dec Annual
Jan
2014 Feb Mar
Apr
May
1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.1
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
Gangnam¹
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
0.4
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment sales prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0
(m-o-m, %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0 2009.1
Nationwide
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7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
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Nationwide apartment rental prices in May rose 0.1 percent month-on-month. Rental prices remained unchanged in the Seoul metropolitan area, but rose in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.1%). Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (-0.2), Seocho (-0.1), Songpa (-0.1), Gangdong (-0.3), Seongdong (-0.1)
Nationwide apartment rental prices 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Oct Nov
Dec Annual Jan
2013 Feb Mar
Apr
May
7.1
12.3
3.5
4.7
0.7
0.5
0.4
1.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.1
Seoul metropolitan area
6.3
11.0
2.1
6.2
1.0
0.7
0.6
2.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
Seoul
6.4
10.8
2.1
6.6
1.0
0.7
0.5
2.0
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
Gangnam¹
7.6
11.1
2.4
6.7
1.2
0.6
0.5
1.9
0.9
0.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
Gangbuk²
5.1
10.6
1.8
6.4
0.9
0.8
0.5
2.2
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
The Green Book
Nationwide
39
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0
(m-o-m, %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0 2009.1
Nationwide
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7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Apartment sales transactions in April increased 3.7 percent from 89,394 transactions in the previous month to 92,691 transactions, and were up 16.6 percent from a year earlier (79,503).
Apartment sales transactions
(Monthly average, thousands)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Nationwide
73
67
82
61
80
90 130
40
47
57
90
85
93
2014 Feb Mar Apr
59
79
89
93
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Monthly apartment transaction volume Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport 160
(thousands)
140
40
120 100
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
80 60 40 20 0
2009.1
7
2010.1
7
Nationwide
2011.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in April rose 0.18 percent month-on-month. Land price growth decelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.18%), which includes Seoul (up 0.23%) and Incheon (up 0.09%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.09 (Sep 2013) > 0.15 (Oct) > 0.16 (Nov) > 0.15 (Dec) > 0.11 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.22 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr)
Land prices continued to grow in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.18%), led by Daegu (up 0.26%) , Sejong (up 0.61%) and Jeju (up 0.36%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.06 (Sep 2013) > 0.15 (Oct) > 0.15 (Nov) > 0.16 (Dec) > 0.10 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.17 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr)
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Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4 Annual
2014 Feb Mar
Q1
Apr
Nationwide
-0.31 0.96 1.05 1.17 0.87 0.21
1.14 0.21 0.37 0.10 0.46
0.63 0.45 0.14 0.20 0.18
Seoul
-1.00 1.40 0.53 0.97 0.33 0.09
1.21 0.10 0.41 0.08 0.61
0.92 0.69 0.21 0.29 0.23
Gyeonggi
-0.26 1.22 1.49 1.47 0.97 1.32
0.91 0.17 0.33 0.07 0.34
0.40 0.26 0.08 0.14 0.14
Incheon
1.37 1.99 1.43 0.66 0.36 0.13
0.87 0.21 0.37 0.07 0.23
0.47 0.37 0.10 0.22 0.09
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Land prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 15
(%)
12
41
9 6
The Green Book
3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
National average
Metropolitan city
2011 2012 2013
City
County
Land and consumer prices since 1970s Sources: Korea Appraisal Board (land prices), Statistics Korea (consumer prices) 60
(y-o-y, %)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1974
1977
Land price inflation
EB 6월호 내지.indd 41
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Consumer price inflation
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends There were 233,000 land transactions in April, up 2.5 percent from the previous month and up 13.1 percent from 206,000 a year earlier. Land transactions, despite decreases in certain areas such as Seoul (down 9.3%, m-o-m) and Sejong (down 16.4%, m-o-m), continued to increase, led by Ulsan (up 15.4%, m-o-m), Gwangju (up 12.6%, m-o-m) and North Chungcheong Province (up 9.3%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 39.3 percent of the total land transactions, rose 3.8 percent month-on-month to 91,000 and 6.3 percent year-on-year from 86,000.
Land transactions 2008
42
2009
(Land lots, thousands)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Nationwide
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
208
203
187
208
170
187 216 246 169 153 144 208 201 236 183 205 227 233
Seoul
26
22
16
18
13
17
20
26
13
13
14
20
19
22
17
20
24
22
Gyeonggi
45
46
41
43
33
37
43
49
33
29
30
44
41
50
37
42
47
49
Incheon
13
10
8
10
8
8
9
11
6
6
7
10
9
9
7
10
10
11
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Land transaction volume Source: Korea Appraisal Board 600,000
(thousand m²)
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2004.1
2005.1
Seoul metropolitan area
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2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
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13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in April fell 0.5 percent month-on-month but rose 1.4 percent year-on-year. Mining & manufacturing (up 0.1%, m-o-m) and construction (up 6.9 %, m-o-m) rose, while services (down 1.0%, m-o-m) and public administration (down 5.4%, m-o-m) declined.
Industrial output Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 20
(%)
43
15 10
The Green Book
5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Industrial output (m-o-m)
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p)
2014.1
Industrial output (y-o-y)
2013 Industrial output (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
2013.1
2014 Feb¹ Mar¹
Apr¹
1.1 0.9
-1.5 1.4
0.6 2.5
-0.5 1.4
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.1
100.2 0.0
100.4 0.2
100.7 0.3
100.6 -0.1
100.7 0.1
100.4 -0.3
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.5
100.8 0.4
101.1 0.3
101.5 0.4
101.6 0.1
101.5 -0.1
101.3 -0.2
101.4 0.1
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
-0.8 -1.0
1.4 4.2
-0.3 1.4
0.4 2.0
0.2
0.5
0.3
100.1 -0.2
100.2 0.1
0.2 100.4 -0.3
1. Preliminary
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.3 points in April. Three components of the coincident composite index, including domestic shipments and imports, rose, while four other components fell. Components of the coincident composite index in April (m-o-m) domestic shipments (0.1%), imports (1.9%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.1%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.4%), service output (-0.3%), value of construction completed (-0.2%), retail sales (-1.1%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
44
(points)
100
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
90 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points. Four components of the leading composite index rose, while five other components either fell or remained unchanged. Components of the leading composite index in April (m-o-m) domestic shipments of machinery (0.2%), value of construction orders received (5.1%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (2.3%p), KOSPI (0.7%), indicator of inventory cycle (-0.3%p), ratio of export to import prices (-0.1%), consumer expectations index (0.0p), international commodity prices (-2.7%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.0%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
100
90 2004.1
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2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Fe atu re d IS
SU E
45 Featured Issue
Encouraging the Youth to Develop an Entrepreneurial Spirit : Interview with Nam Min-Woo, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Young Generation
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Featured Issue
Encouraging the Youth to Develop an Entrepreneurial Spirit Interview with Nam Min-Woo, Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Young Generation
46
The Presidential Committee on Young Generation was established in July 2013 to facilitate communication between the government and the young generation, as well as make policymaking for the youth more effective. What progress has the Committee made over the past year?
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
We started out by asking ourselves, “What can the Committee do?” At first the most effective thing we could do was listen to what the young adults had to say, and then try to address their problems. At some point young adults became the underrepresented group in our society. We searched for ideas to help them. The biggest concerns for the young adults that we met were mostly about jobs. They pointed out four problems. The first was the discrepancy between the income that they wanted to get from their jobs and the actual wages that employers offered. Another issue was a recruitment system that centered on academic credentials and had little to do with the actual skills of the job candidate. The third was the fact that startups were mostly livelihood-related and not tech-related. Finally, the lack of support for startups or long-term overseas employment was also considered a problem. A recent survey found out that the majority of young aspiring business owners are planning businesses that are livelihood-related, such as coffee franchises or restaurants. Why do you think the youth prefer livelihood-related micro-businesses over tech startups?
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Fear of failure is the biggest obstacle. Our society does not tolerate failures. We live in a system where you lose everything once you fail. In such an environment, you cannot blame young adults for lacking an entrepreneurial spirit. We need a proper startup environment. The major advanced countries are pursuing entrepreneurship training as national policy. In the US, the Small Business Administration and the Department of Commerce provide various training programs, and 18 states have laws that support entrepreneurship training. Korea, on the other hand, lacks systematic training programs for starting businesses. The bright side is that last year the government announced the ‘Five Year Plan for College Entrepreneurship Training’, which set the stage for promoting entrepreneurship. For this plan to work, however, the relevant government departments should work together to ensure that the effects are long-lasting. There has been a mismatch between young jobseekers and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for a long time. Why is this issue so hard to solve? The problem is that demand from SMEs does not match the job skills of the job seekers. There is an excess supply of college graduates, while there is a serious shortage of technicians with a high school diploma, which is the kind of manpower that the SMEs actually need. According to a 2012 survey,
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
46.2 percent of the companies said they had trouble recruiting workers with adequate job skills. A mismatch in wages is also a problematic issue. Since the pay level in SMEs is only about two thirds of that in large corporations, and employee benefits are only half as much, it is no surprise that young adults shun SMEs for public firms and large corporations. How are you helping young adults find jobs overseas?
47
The government is also boosting cooperation with other organizations, such as the Korea TradeInvestment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) and Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), to train young adults who want to find jobs overseas. What advice would you give to the young generation? I would tell them to accept challenges. I am not saying that starting a business will bring fortunes. In fact, there will be a better chance of failing than succeeding. But the reason why I encourage entrepreneurship is because there is much to learn
Featured Issue
Until recently, overseas internships were mostly about building one’s resume. Starting this year, however, the government’s overseas internship programs have put more emphasis on ensuring that the internship leads to an actual job offer overseas. To that end, internship programs that are closely linked to employment have been placed under the management of the Ministry of Employment and Labor instead of the Ministry of Education. from the experience itself. Those who have had it easy their entire lives lack a competitive edge, because they tend to have a narrow worldview and have no idea of what is happening in the bottom. When you are young, it is better to take risks than to settle down in a cozy job. Of course, today’s young adults are faced with difficult circumstances. However, you will get your big break in your 20s, just like Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg, who achieved huge success at a young age. I hope the young generation will trust their passion and latent power to rise to the challenge.
The original version of this interview appears in the June 2014 issue of Narakyungje, a monthly magazine on economic policies published by KDI.
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Ec o Ne no ws mi c Br iefi ng 48 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Government to work on big data projects Government issues US$2 billion worth of FX equalization bonds Government unveils additional measures to boost FTA utilization for SMEs Korea-Malaysia currency swap to be utilized for bilateral trade settlements Online market for traditional food launched Korea ranked 26th in IMD competitiveness rankings Korea grows 0.9% in Q1
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The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning has unveiled projects that use big data to help create jobs and foster innovative businesses in retail, tourism, medical services and automobile parts production industries. In 2013, the Ministry had launched pilot projects, which involved gathering big data from the public and private sectors to design late-night bus routes in Seoul and develop a market assessment system for aspiring small business owners. The projects recently announced include: analyzing retail sales data to support small businesses such as mom and pop stores, gathering information on major tourist spots and commercial areas to provide better services to foreign tourists, providing hospital or health information based on patients’ medical history, and creating a big data platform where automobile parts manufacturers can jointly analyze product quality.
49 E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g
g
— Government to work on big data projects
The data produced from these projects will be open to the public, in order to be used by ventures and startups seeking opportunities in data-based businesses.
The streets of Myeongdong, a popular shopping district in Seoul, are bustling with shoppers and foreign tourists. The government is planning to use big data to analyze major shopping areas and tourist attractions like Myeongdong, which would help attract more foreign visitors by providing better services.
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Economic News Briefing
Representatives from Korean SMEs are discussing their products with foreign buyers at the G-Trade Global trade show held on April 30. The event was hosted by the Gyeonggi Small Business Center and attended by around 200 local SMEs and 41 companies from Korea's FTA partner nations.
50 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
— Government issues US$2 billion worth of FX equalization bonds
— Government unveils additional measures to boost FTA utilization for SMEs
The government issued Foreign Exchange (FX) Equalization Bonds worth US$2 billion on June 4 in order to redeem US$2.5 billion worth of the bonds scheduled to mature this year. The issuance is composed of 30-year maturity dollar-denominated bonds worth US$1 billion and 10-year eurodenominated bonds worth US$1 billion (750 million euros), and the spreads were decided at 72.5 basis points over US Treasury and 57 basis points over euro mid-swaps, respectively.
Follow-up measures to help small- and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs) utilize free trade agreements (FTAs) were revealed at the Ministerial Meeting on International Economic Affairs held on May 29. Last year the government developed and began to implement measures to boost FTA utilization for SMEs, but a recent survey found that businesses remain largely unaware of government policies and continue to experience difficulties. The government has developed measures to boost awareness of FTA utilization policies and resolve these difficulties.
This is the first time Korea has issued foreign currency-denominated bonds with a 30-year maturity. Spreads for 30-year dollar-denominated bonds were lower than Temasek, Singapore’s sovereign bonds, which hold the highest credit rating in Asia. Eurodenominated bonds with a 10-year maturity were issued for the first time since 2006, and carry an interest rate of 2.164 percent, the lowest yield ever. The recent move is expected to promote long-term debt issuance by the private sector while encouraging debt issuance in non-dollar currencies, and lower the cost of debt by setting a new benchmark rate for foreign currency-denominated bonds.
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In order to boost awareness of the policies, the government will provide public relations services, such as call centers and manuals that explain how to properly utilize government support. Other measures include developing customized support systems that support each industry according to its needs, providing free programs to calculate income earned from FTAs, increasing the supply of country-of-origin management information systems and providing support for country-of-origin verification.
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
— Korea-Malaysia currency swap to be utilized for bilateral trade settlements The Ministry of Strategy and Finance, along with the Bank of Korea and the Central Bank of Malaysia, has agreed to use the Korea-Malaysia currency swap, worth 5 trillion won or 15 billion Malaysian ringgits, to provide support for bilateral trade settlements. This measure will boost utilization of both countries’ currencies and is also expected to strengthen the financial safety net in the event of a crisis.
— Online market for traditional food launched
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Korea’s ranking in global competitiveness fell four notches this year compared to the previous year, according to the 2014 edition of the World Competiveness Yearbook released by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD). Korea ranked 26th among 60 nations surveyed, and was eighth among the G20 nations. Rankings for economic achievement (20 th) and infrastructure (19 th) were unchanged from the previous year, but rankings for government efficiency (20 th > 26th) and corporate efficiency (34th to 39 th) dropped. In the subcategories, Korea ranked highest in domestic economy, technology infrastructure, employment and science infrastructure, but received relatively poor rankings in corporate governance, labor market and business-related laws.
51 E co n o m i c N ew s B r i e f i n g
An online market specializing in Korean traditional food has been launched on June 1, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. The Ministry collaborated with the private sector to create an online shopping mall exclusively for traditional food items that have been certified by the government. Certified traditional food is recognized for its superior quality and taste, but until now sales had been poor due to the relatively high price. The new online market is expected to boost sales by selling those items at a lower price than in other stores. The online market will also help revive the traditional food market, as well as help the local farms that supply products to the traditional food manufacturing companies.
— Korea ranked 26th in IMD competitiveness rankings
An online market specializing in government-certified Korean traditional food was launched on June 1. Items on sale at the online market are on display at a National Agricultural Products Management Service office on April 17.
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:46
Economic News Briefing Korea grows 0.9% in Q1 (Preliminary)
On the expenditure side, private consumption was revised down from 0.3 percent to 0.2 percent, and government consumption, which was down 0.2 percent in the advanced estimates, appeared unchanged in the preliminary estimates. Facility investment fell 1.9 percent, down from the advanced estimates of 1.3 percent, while construction investment grew 5.1 percent, up from 4.8 percent. Investment in software and technology was adjusted down to 6.5 percent from 7.5 percent.
Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.9 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.9 percent yearon-year in the first quarter of 2014, according to preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea on June 5. The figures were unchanged from the advanced estimates that were released on April 24.
52
On the production side, manufacturing grew 2.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, up from an earlier estimate of 2.1 percent. Construction growth was revised down from 1.4 percent to 1.2 percent. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries fell 4.4 percent, down from the advanced estimates of 4.3 percent. Services expanded 0.6 percent, in line with advanced estimates.
Exports rose 1.5 percent, led by petroleum products, metal products and smartphones, while imports fell 0.8 percent, led by machiner y and chemical products. Export and import growth were revised down from the earlier estimates of 1.7 percent and -0.5 percent, respectively.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
GDP by production and expenditure*
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014¹ Q1
GDP
0.5 (2.6)²
0.5 (2.4)²
0.4 (2.1)²
0.6 (2.1)²
0.6 (2.1)²
1.0 (2.7)²
1.1 (3.4)²
0.9 (3.7)²
0.9 (3.9)²
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-6.7
-0.2
-0.4
6.1
-4.1
1.9
4.6
7.4
-4.4
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.8
2.2
Manufacturing Construction
2013¹
-2.9
-0.2
0.4
-1.2
2.7
1.7
1.9
-2.4
1.2
Services3
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.5
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.6
Private consumption
0.8
0.2
1.2
0.4
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.2
Government consumption
2.4
-0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
1.6
0.4
0.9
0.0
Facility investment
11.5
-8.0
-3.2
-3.3
1.5
1.0
2.7
5.6
-1.9
Construction investment
-2.1
-3.0
1.2
-2.4
6.5
4.6
0.2
-5.2
5.1
Intellectual property investment
9.0
-3.2
3.3
-2.8
9.4
-2.2
1.2
1.8
6.5
Exports
0.5
2.5
1.9
0.9
0.2
2.6
-1.1
1.4
1.5
Imports
3.0
-0.2
0.3
-1.3
0.6
1.8
-0.4
2.9
-0.8
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
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14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
1. National accounts
53 Statistical Appendices
Sta tist App ic a en l dic es 2. Production, shipment and inventory
3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
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Statistical A ppendic es 1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices) Real GDP
Period
54
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P
3.9 5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 3.0
1.4 1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 5.8
5.8 7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.3
4.4 5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2
2.0 3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 4.2
-0.1 0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 6.7
4.8 8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -1.5
2005 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.5 3.6 4.5 4.9
0.5 4.8 3.8 -3.1
3.6 4.5 7.0 8.1
2.2 4.5 5.5 5.3
0.6 1.7 2.1 3.3
-2.5 1.1 0.0 0.3
3.7 2.1 4.3 9.1
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.6 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
4.7 5.1 5.5 4.6
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.6 2.5 1.6 -3.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-4.7 -1.0 0.5 5.2
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.9 3.5 4.0 3.2
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.2 -2.4 -5.8 7.0
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.5 3.6 2.4 1.5
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.3 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0
8.2 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
-0.3 -2.2 -0.1 -0.7
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
1.2 0.1 1.8 1.9
6.2 -2.3 -1.0 -3.4
-0.2 -5.4 -2.7 -6.2
11.1 -1.8 -4.2 -4.0
2013P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7
0.4 2.9 7.4 9.9
1.8 2.8 3.8 4.5
1.0 1.6 1.5 1.6
-2.6 5.0 5.9 7.8
1.9 9.8 8.8 5.4
-12.7 -3.9 1.5 10.9
2014P Ⅰ
3.9
7.7
5.6
2.1
5.9
4.3
7.3
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100) Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
106.0 107.4 107.7
6.0 1.3 0.3
105.6 107.2 107.6
5.6 1.5 0.4
119.9 125.2 131.4
15.0 4.4 5.0
103.2 104.8 106.3
3.2 1.6 1.4
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.6 107.5 104.0 109.7
9.1 6.2 5.4 3.4
103.4 106.6 103.2 109.3
10.0 5.4 4.7 2.8
104.9 109.8 112.3 119.9
7.8 11.8 11.4 15.0
99.4 103.4 103.2 106.7
2.8 2.7 4.2 3.0
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
105.7 108.9 103.9 112.5
-0.8 0.0 0.2 1.9
105.7 108.9 104.0 111.8
-0.8 0.5 0.2 2.0
123.1 119.4 125.0 131.4
4.6 4.0 9.2 6.2
102.9 106.7 105.6 109.9
0.9 1.7 0.8 2.1
2014 ⅠP
106.3
0.6
105.9
0.2
129.8
5.4
104.8
1.9
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.0 106.1 111.6 106.8 110.7 109.2 106.0 100.3 104.7 108.8 112.6 110.3
-3.1 15.3 0.9 0.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.8 3.0 0.1
102.8 106.1 111.0 106.2 109.9 109.2 105.2 99.9 106.2 108.2 111.0 110.1
-2.8 13.5 0.1 -0.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 -1.4 1.9 -0.9 2.6 -0.3
119.3 117.4 117.7 116.5 118.2 114.8 115.4 119.3 114.5 116.1 121.3 125.2
14.2 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.8 4.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 0.6 3.1 4.4
100.3 99.9 105.7 102.8 105.9 105.9 104.8 103.9 105.7 104.7 105.5 112.7
0.3 6.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.5 0.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.9 96.9 109.2 109.1 110.2 107.4 107.5 103.5 100.7 112.7 111.8 113.0
8.7 -8.7 -2.2 2.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.4 3.2 -3.8 3.6 -0.7 2.4
109.5 97.8 109.8 108.8 109.8 108.1 106.6 104.4 100.9 112.0 111.3 112.1
6.5 -7.8 -1.1 2.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 4.5 -5.0 3.5 0.3 1.8
128.3 124.6 123.1 121.0 122.2 119.4 124.2 123.8 125.0 126.9 129.2 131.4
7.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.0 7.6 3.8 9.2 9.3 6.5 5.0
102.1 100.2 106.4 105.4 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.6 105.5 107.7 107.4 114.7
1.8 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1 2 3P 4P
106.1 100.7 112.0 111.7
-4.3 3.9 2.6 2.4
104.5 100.8 112.4 110.9
-4.6 3.1 2.4 1.9
133.1 129.3 129.8 130.7
3.7 3.8 5.4 8.0
104.3 101.3 108.8 106.4
2.2 1.1 2.4 1.0
55 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
56
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
104.7 106.9 108.7
4.7 2.1 1.7
100.2 97.5 94.8
0.2 -2.7 -2.8
80.5 78.5 76.2
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.5 104.5 105.0 105.6
5.7 5.1 4.3 3.5
97.8 103.5 97.7 101.9
2.2 0.8 0.1 -2.0
81.4 80.6 80.9 79.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.2 108.4 108.9 109.3
1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7
93.3 97.4 90.5 97.9
-4.3 -3.6 -2.9 -0.4
77.3 75.9 75.1 76.5
2014 ⅠP
109.5
1.2
92.4
-1.0
77.1
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.7 107.2 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.6
2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.9
92.5 97.2 102.9 98.9 102.6 101.4 97.2 88.3 94.1 98.1 100.7 96.1
-8.0 11.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -6.9 -3.6 -4.6 -1.7 -4.5
80.0 80.4 79.2 79.6 79.9 78.9 78.4 74.3 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.1 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.7 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.6
1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
98.5 84.5 96.8 97.4 99.0 95.9 94.3 90.4 86.7 99.2 97.9 96.7
6.5 -13.1 -5.9 -1.5 -3.5 -5.4 -3.0 2.4 -7.9 1.1 -2.8 0.6
78.8 77.1 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 74.8 76.3 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.2
2014 1 2 3P 4P
109.6 109.5 109.5 109.5
1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2
91.6 87.2 98.4 99.4
-7.0 3.2 1.7 2.1
78.2 75.8 77.2 77.5
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100) Consumer goods sales index Period
y-o-y change (%)
Durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Semi-durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)
104.5 107.0 107.9
4.5 2.4 0.8
110.6 116.2 116.6
10.6 5.3 0.3
103.7 103.8 105.9
3.7 -0.4 2.0
102.1 104.1 104.7
2.1 2.0 0.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 104.8 103.7 108.9
5.3 6.2 4.0 2.6
105.4 112.2 111.4 113.3
11.5 16.9 10.3 4.4
98.3 105.5 94.2 116.7
5.1 5.2 3.6 1.2
99.6 101.2 104.4 103.3
2.7 2.0 1.5 2.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.4 106.4 106.5 111.6
2.8 1.4 2.7 2.5
109.4 114.9 118.4 122.0
4.0 2.6 6.4 8.3
99.0 105.5 92.3 118.4
0.6 -0.5 -2.3 0.5
102.6 102.8 107.2 103.8
3.1 1.7 2.8 0.5
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.7 107.7 107.2 112.9
0.3 1.2 0.7 1.2
110.9 118.2 116.8 120.2
1.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5
101.7 107.2 95.0 119.6
2.7 1.6 2.9 1.0
101.2 103.0 108.0 106.7
-1.4 0.2 0.7 2.8
2014 ⅠP
106.3
2.5
117.5
6.0
100.0
-1.7
103.9
2.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.5 97.8 105.0 103.0 110.1 106.1 108.2 102.3 109.1 109.0 111.6 114.3
2.1 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.3 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.1
107.2 107.2 113.7 107.3 117.3 120.0 125.6 114.0 115.7 117.1 123.1 125.9
3.3 9.8 -0.4 1.0 4.4 2.2 7.4 4.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 10.6
104.7 91.9 100.4 104.8 111.4 100.3 97.3 82.1 97.6 114.8 118.8 121.5
-0.2 2.0 0.1 -1.3 0.8 -0.9 0.9 -5.1 -3.0 -2.0 5.1 -1.4
108.8 96.0 102.9 100.1 106.1 102.1 104.9 105.7 111.1 102.7 103.0 105.8
2.4 4.8 2.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 -0.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.0 105.3 110.8 106.9 109.2 104.6 107.7 111.2 113.1 114.5
-2.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.2 -1.3 2.0 1.3 0.2
112.2 105.9 114.7 115.0 119.5 120.2 127.4 116.3 106.8 120.4 120.2 120.0
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.0 -7.7 2.8 -2.4 -4.7
102.9 93.1 109.2 106.4 113.8 101.5 98.1 87.1 99.9 113.6 123.5 121.8
-1.7 1.3 8.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.8 6.1 2.4 -1.0 4.0 0.2
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.1 105.5 106.9 111.6 105.9 105.3 108.8
-6.5 3.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 3.1 2.2 2.8
2014 1 2 3P 4P
110.5 99.1 109.3 105.2
5.6 -0.4 2.1 -0.1
116.8 117.1 118.6 114.1
4.1 10.6 3.4 -0.8
100.2 91.6 108.3 105.0
-2.6 -1.6 -0.8 -1.3
112.1 94.0 105.5 101.2
10.2 -5.3 2.9 0.9
57 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods
Period
58
y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
100.9 102.5 101.9
0.9 1.6 -0.6
100.3 102.8 103.1
0.3 2.5 0.3
101.2 102.4 101.4
1.2 1.2 -1.0
-
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
101.0 97.9 101.5 103.3
4.6 0.9 0.8 -2.2
99.5 100.7 100.9 100.1
3.8 3.1 -0.1 -5.0
101.6 96.8 101.7 104.6
4.7 0.2 1.1 -1.1
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.8 98.4 102.1 104.5
2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4
108.0 100.6 102.3 101.5
10.4 1.5 -0.2 -9.4
100.5 97.4 101.9 105.8
-1.5 -2.8 -1.9 2.3
-
2014 ⅠP
100.3
-2.4
103.1
-4.5
99.1
-1.4
-
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100.6 98.6 103.1 99.2 101.6 98.9 102.8 101.5 106.1 106.6 105.7 105.7
-7.0 10.9 -2.6 0.9 5.9 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 4.7 1.5
92.5 98.3 102.5 94.1 100.4 102.8 105.3 98.4 103.9 108.5 110.9 116.5
-8.3 6.0 -2.4 -3.6 1.2 -2.4 0.7 0.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 15.5
104.0 98.7 103.3 101.3 102.1 97.3 101.8 102.9 107.0 105.7 103.5 101.1
-6.6 13.1 -2.6 2.6 8.0 0.2 3.4 -1.1 4.4 -0.8 1.6 -4.1
98 102 102 106 106 101 100 101 99 100 100 99
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.4 96.7 103.2 99.1 99.3 96.7 103.2 103.7 99.3 108.7 102.8 102.0
7.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 2.2 -6.4 2.0 -2.7 -3.5
110.4 106.1 107.6 97.9 101.3 102.6 108.8 103.6 94.6 104.3 102.9 97.4
19.4 7.9 5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.3 -9.0 -3.9 -7.2 -16.4
107.5 92.6 101.3 99.6 98.5 94.1 100.8 103.7 101.3 110.6 102.7 104.0
3.4 -6.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 -5.3 4.6 -0.8 2.8
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1 2 3P 4P 5
102.2 96.3 102.5 101.2 -
-5.7 -0.4 -0.7 2.1 -
99.8 106.5 103.0 97.8 -
-9.6 0.4 -4.3 -0.1 -
103.3 91.9 102.2 102.7 -
-3.9 -0.8 0.9 3.1 -
109 108 108 108 105
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total
Period
2011 2012 2013
Public
y-o-y change (%)
Private
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Estimated facility investment index y-o-y (2010=100)
change (%)
7.6 -13.9 6.7
2,407 2,142 2,580
-2.6 -11.0 20.5
22,741 19,506 20,524
8.8 -14.2 5.2
103.5 100.6 99.3
3.5 -2.8 -1.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,383 6,723 5,666 6,376
15.3 9.6 -0.7 6.4
358 708 310 1,031
-36.7 83.1 -18.6 -9.5
6,025 6,015 5,356 5,345
21.2 4.6 0.6 10.1
97.0 109.4 104.5 103.0
5.2 7.4 3.2 -1.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,592 5,867 5,148 6,498
-11.4 8.8 2.2 32.4
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,163 5,313 4,625 5,423
-6.1 4.0 3.8 22.1
91.2 100.6 98.8 106.4
-13.1 -4.0 2.7 10.4
2014 ⅠP
6,594
17.9
1,221
184.6
5,373
4.1
96.7
6.0
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,933 2,541 1,836 1,845 1,830 1,716 1,835 1,509 1,693 1,511 1,656 1,743
-0.8 25.1 -23.6 -4.4 -14.4 -35.4 -9.4 -14.2 -10 -22.5 -27.8 -18.3
52 695 63 56 39 190 310 169 100 86 127 255
-22.2 829.0 -70.9 -10.3 -72.8 -62.2 135.5 105.9 3.5 -72.3 -75.8 31.2
1,881 1,846 1,773 1,789 1,791 1,526 1,525 1,339 1,593 1,425 1,529 1,488
0.0 -5.7 -18.9 -4.3 -10.2 -29.1 -19.5 -20.1 -10.7 -13.1 -13.5 -23.3
97.7 109.1 108.2 106.2 105.8 102.3 105.4 90.1 93.1 94.5 92.4 102.2
5.6 26.4 -3.5 3.0 -4.9 -10.2 -1.6 -16.5 -5.5 1.1 -10 -9.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,847 1,666 2,079 1,846 2,127 1,894 1,935 1,623 1,589 2,606 2,109 1,784
-4.4 -34.4 13.2 0 16.2 10.4 5.5 7.6 -6.1 72.4 27.4 2.4
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.4 -28.5 815.4 28.2 -51.4
1,708 1,498 1,957 1,754 1,877 1,682 1,576 1,531 1,518 1,818 1,946 1,660
-9.2 -18.8 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.4 14.3 -4.7 27.5 27.3 11.6
89.8 83.5 100.4 98.2 101.6 102.0 108.0 100.1 88.2 108.9 101.4 108.9
-8.1 -23.5 -7.2 -7.5 -4 -0.3 2.5 11.1 -5.3 15.2 9.7 6.6
2014 1 2 3P 4P
1,716 1,848 3,029 2,320
-7.1 10.9 45.7 25.7
88 120 1,013 100
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 8.8
1,628 1,728 2,016 2,220
-4.7 15.4 3.0 26.6
88.4 93.8 107.4 108.7
-1.6 12.3 7.0 10.7
59 Statistical Appendices
25,148 21,648 23,105
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won) Period
60
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (Total) (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction y-o-y orders change received y-o-y (%) (Total) change (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
91,717 88,713 97,938
-0.6 35,120 -3.3 33,807 10.4 34,532
-0.1 -3.7 2.1
51,663 50,622 59,492
-2.2 -2.0 17.5
95,332 89,395 75,644
6.1 -6.2 -15.4
28,624 26,071 24,574
-2.0 -8.9 -5.7
61,839 59,811 48,888
12.3 -3.3 -18.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,277 24,057 21,423 26,960
-5.2 7,322 -0.1 9,290 -2.7 7,684 4.4 10,825
-2.1 1.8 -1.5 0.7
11,031 13,339 12,597 14,696
-7.9 -4.3 -4.3 6.9
16,335 25,319 20,444 33,233
-11.5 -0.9 5.6 25.5
4,119 6,311 6,711 11,483
-49.0 -8.4 -1.4 54.5
11,107 17,653 12,871 20,209
20.3 4.7 12.1 15.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,145 25,707 23,679 28,407
4.5 7,005 14.7 9,345 10.9 8,083 10.6 10,099
-5.9 5.1 6.4 2.3
12,375 15,377 14,674 17,066
13.6 23.6 15.8 16.8
13,425 18,143 16,454 27,621
-40.8 -29.5 -10.6 22.2
4,289 5,348 4,910 10,025
-24.1 -4.0 -9.1 6.2
8,781 12,108 11,165 16,832
-46.2 -36.6 -10.8 41.7
2014 ⅠP
21,605
7.2
7,133
1.8
13,620
10.1
15,541
15.8
5,969
39.1
9,141
4.1
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,796 6,035 7,444 6,844 7,307 8,259 7,037 6,582 7,732 7,343 8,098 10,235
-6.3 13.2 -4.1 -4.5 -1.8 -12.6 4.2 -4.6 -0.5 -7.8 3.0 -8.1
2,123 2,373 2,945 2,644 2,873 3,374 2,372 2,322 2,904 2,591 3,003 4,282
-12.9 17.0 3.1 -3.6 3.0 -10.2 -0.3 -5.6 2.1 -10.7 -5.3 -9.9
3,373 3,405 4,115 3,903 4,106 4,431 4,281 3,943 4,452 4,452 4,773 5,387
-3.3 11.3 -8.2 -4.0 -3.4 -11.8 5.4 -3.8 0.3 -4.7 11.2 -6.0
7,468 8,488 6,714 6,428 7,310 11,993 6,823 5,390 6,181 5,800 7,239 9,556
52.0 108.1 -8.6 -4.2 2.3 4.6 32.3 -28.8 -19.9 -22.6 -19.9 -42.8
2,034 2,218 1,402 1,453 1,061 3,056 2,304 1,316 1,780 1,970 2,105 5,366
54.6 57.5 0.6 1.7 -43.9 2.2 24.2 -12.5 -46.9 -14.9 -29.5 -13.1
5,269 6,121 4,918 4,461 6,133 8,505 4,329 4,032 4,161 3,787 4,798 3,290
81.4 144.1 -13.6 -3.6 29.4 2.7 39.9 -30.3 4.2 -24.1 -18.3 -64.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,266 6,222 7,657 8,089 8,142 9,476 7,839 7,657 8,183 8,628 9,083 10,696
8.1 3.1 2.9 18.2 11.4 14.7 11.4 16.3 5.8 17.5 12.2 4.5
2,072 2,345 2,589 2,839 2,805 3,700 2,643 2,561 2,878 2,958 3,124 4,017
-2.4 -1.2 -12.1 7.4 -2.4 9.7 11.5 10.3 -0.9 14.2 4.0 -6.2
3,956 3,650 4,769 4,954 5,062 5,361 4,885 4,810 4,979 5,329 5,625 6,112
17.3 7.2 15.9 26.9 23.3 21.0 14.1 22.0 11.8 19.7 17.8 13.5
3,546 4,431 5,447 4,946 6,073 7,124 5,675 4,708 6,070 7,346 7,895 12,379
-52.5 -47.8 -18.9 -23.1 -16.9 -40.6 -16.8 -12.6 -1.8 26.7 9.1 29.5
1,289 1,287 1,713 1,558 1,559 2,231 1,412 1,493 2,004 1,500 2,648 5,877
-36.6 -42.0 22.1 7.2 47.0 -27.0 -38.7 13.5 12.6 -23.9 25.8 9.5
2,108 2,992 3,680 2,962 4,393 4,753 4,153 3,171 3,840 5,756 5,004 6,070
-60.0 -51.1 -25.2 -33.6 -28.4 -44.1 -4.1 -21.4 -7.7 52.0 4.3 84.5
2014 1 2 3P 4P
7,034 6,654 7,916 8,437
12.3 6.9 3.4 4.3
2,310 2,207 2,615 2,718
11.5 4,434 -5.9 4,226.0 1.0 4,961.0 -4.3 5,441.0
12.1 15.8 4.0 9.8
5,300 5,393 4,848 7,032
49.5 21.7 -11.0 42.2
2,102 2,242 1,625 1,727
62.9 74.2 -5.1 10.8
3,026 3,001 3,115 5,295
43.5 0.3 -15.4 78.8
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Cyclical component of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical component of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.2 101.5 101.6 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.4
100.8 100.7 100.4 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.3 98.1
103.3 103.4 104.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.5 106.9 106.8 107.2
101.1 100.9 101.0 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.5 100.5
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.2 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.5 107.5 107.9 108.0 107.8 108.1 108.8 109.5
98.5 99.2 99.2 99.4 99.1 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9 98.8 99.1 99.4
107.3 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.9 109.8 110.3 110.2 110.8 111.4
100.2 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.0
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.0
99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 99.7 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.5
111.7 112.2 112.3 112.9 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.7
100.0 100.0 99.7 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.4
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6
117.6 118.0 118.2 118.8 -
101.6 101.5 101.3 101.4 -
117.5 117.9 118.4 118.5 -
100.7 100.6 100.7 100.4 -
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 -
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5
61 Statistical Appendices
Leading index (2010=100)
Period
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 9. Balance of payments (I) (US$ million) Current account
Goods
2011 2012 2013
18,655.8 50,835.0 79,883.6
29,089.9 49,406.0 80,568.6
587,099.7 603,509.2 617,127.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-3,769.1 -1,921.2 11,994.5 12,351.6
2,453.6 2,520.5 11,435.4 12,680.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
558,009.8 554,103.2 536,559.0
-12,279.1 -5,213.6 -7,927.4
6,560.6 12,116.7 11,424.8
-4,715.6 -5,474.1 -4,182.3
133,839.7 150,171.3 150,723.9 152,364.8
131,386.1 147,650.8 139,288.5 139,684.4
-4,746.0 -3,468.8 -2,163.6 -1,900.7
-195.2 372.1 3,723.5 2,660.2
-1,281.5 -1,345.0 -1,000.8 -1,088.3
1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9
144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6
142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7
-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0
2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9
-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7
10,458.1 20,804.7 23,782.0 24,838.8
12,075.8 19,998.5 23,876.5 24,617.8
146,933.9 153,981.4 153,754.8 162,457.5
134,858.1 133,982.9 129,878.3 137,839.7
-3,512.2 -409.8 -2,062.7 -1,942.7
2,782.6 1,835.0 3,162.8 3,644.4
-888.1 -619.0 -1,194.6 -1,480.6
2014P Ⅰ
15,070.7
17,745.2
152,688.6
134,943.4
-3,618.6
1,905.8
-961.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,151.2 -2,409.5 3,814.7 87.8 5,265.5 6,251.8 8,413.0 1,808.7 6,665.1 7,494.2 8,293.6 7,301.3
-1,727.4 -863.1 4,252.0 -222.9 3,387.9 5,370.0 7,529.7 2,118.1 6,246.8 7,472.8 8,580.9 7,261.2
44,738.1 48,304.2 51,217.8 49,330.2 50,854.0 50,649.8 51,530.7 47,379.6 50,709.2 53,409.2 54,492.4 50,894.0
46,465.5 49,167.3 46,965.8 49,553.1 47,466.1 45,279.8 44,001.0 45,261.5 44,462.4 45,936.4 45,911.5 43,632.8
-1,017.2 -2,018.3 64.7 288.4 545.9 -662.3 110.0 -844.3 54.5 -415.4 -833.9 -485.7
1,243.3 873.2 -71.2 364.5 1,660.1 1,917.7 1,260.7 965.2 746.3 867.8 988.6 1,300.5
-649.9 -401.3 -430.8 -342.2 -328.4 -373.6 -487.4 -430.3 -382.5 -431.0 -442.0 -774.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,969.3 2,146.5 6,342.3 4,552.9 9,752.2 6,499.6 7,985.1 7,198.0 8,598.9 11,107.9 6,854.8 6,876.1
2,855.2 2,733.1 6,487.5 5,103.3 9,591.6 5,303.6 7,911.7 7,378.1 8,586.7 9,816.8 8,175.6 6,625.4
51,027.4 44,778.4 51,128.1 51,587.2 53,548.1 48,846.1 53,353.6 49,839.2 50,562.0 56,702.8 52,756.9 52,997.8
48,172.2 42,045.3 44,640.6 46,483.9 43,956.5 43,542.5 45,441.9 42,461.1 41,975.3 46,886.0 44,581.3 46,372.4
-1,783.5 -1,394.1 -334.6 5.7 -298.2 -117.3 -1,058.1 -805.9 -198.7 393.5 -1,923.2 -413.0
1,434.6 1,035.1 312.9 -354.1 670.3 1,518.8 1,396.1 912.4 854.3 1,260.6 1,010.9 1,372.9
-537.0 -227.6 -123.5 -202.0 -211.5 -205.5 -264.6 -286.6 -643.4 -363.0 -408.5 -709.1
2014P 1 2 3 4
3,285.3 4,499.1 7,286.3 7,124.7
4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0
50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4
46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4
-1,912.1 -1,058.7 -647.8 -1,042.8
1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7
-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8
Period
62
Exports
Imports
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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10. Balance of payments (II) (US$ million) Capital transfers & acquisition of Reserve assets nonfinancial assets
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
2011 2012 2013
-24,315.8 -51,582.4 -76,881.1
-19,931.7 -21,136.2 -16,951.5
13,142.7 6,747.8 -8,287.1
-1,031.3 2,627.8 3,839.7
-2,542.7 -26,637.3 -41,003.7
-112.0 -41.7 -27.8
-13,952.8 -13,184.5 -14,478.5
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3,231.1 -8.5 -11,957.3 -15,581.1
-4,872.2 -5,028.1 -4,652.9 -5,378.5
-472.1 4,043.3 8,344.5 1,227.0
922.4 -160.6 -1,535.5 -257.6
11,172.4 3,754.9 -20,439.5 2,969.5
-30.0 -9.7 -5.4 -66.9
-3,519.4 -2,618.0 6,326.1 -14,141.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2
-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9
14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1
-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,560.0 -16,194.8 -23,107.8 -26,018.5
-5,148.2 -3,297.9 -3,988.6 -4,516.8
-6,461.9 -8,919.2 8,996.0 -1,902.0
1,418.9 -604.6 1,694.0 1,331.4
2,562.0 -7,439.0 -23,231.0 -12,895.7
-3.5 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
-3,930.8 4,065.9 -6,578.2 -8,035.4
2014P Ⅰ
-17177.8
-3,657.7
-13,596.7
892.6
6,207.4
-2.1
-7,023.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,295.1 435.0 -3,704.3 1,566.7 -2,645.3 -3,200.1 -9,113.6 -3,219.3 -5,763.2 -7,172.4 -9,211.9 -8,258.9
-2,022.6 -3,631.3 -1,925.7 -1,225.9 -1,687.4 -1,144.0 -1,695.4 -1,719.8 -2,290.2 -1,001.3 -1,599.7 -1,192.9
7,904.1 6,238.0 617.5 -3,114.3 -1,893.6 -1,795.1 1,730.8 646.6 1,800.3 -4,742.4 -3,886.7 3,242.6
452.6 245.8 500.1 215.0 -480.7 -4.9 358.8 -35.5 272.0 -137.8 631.8 610.6
-5,167.1 -190.9 -1,137.1 5,832.0 147.6 201.5 -8,171.9 -1,016.0 -4,059.3 185.2 -1,759.5 -11,501.8
-9.6 -5.8 -3.8 0.3 -1.0 -6.0 -5.5 -1.9 -1.6 -4.9 0.7 -2.6
-2,462.1 -2,226.6 -1,759.1 -140.1 1,268.8 -457.6 -1,335.9 -1,094.6 -1,486.0 -1,476.1 -2,597.8 582.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3,288.5 -3,297.9 -4,973.6 -1,908.3 -9,945.6 -4,340.9 -9,155.6 -7,937.6 -6,014.6 -9,880.0 -8,399.9 -7,738.6
-1,631.9 -1,145.9 -2,370.4 -21.0 -1,659.7 -1,617.2 -1,301.4 -1,275.8 -1,411.4 -296.1 -2,303.1 -1,917.6
-5,226.0 2,023.2 -3,259.1 -1,873.5 -1,091.4 -5,954.3 1,825.5 1,435.1 5,735.4 4,467.7 -1,522.8 -4,846.9
586.9 686.9 145.1 -313.2 649.2 -940.6 443.3 218.1 1,032.6 713.1 14.0 604.3
3,380.1 -2,870.9 2,052.8 -643.1 -6,804.3 8.4 -8,131.5 -6,631.3 -8,468.2 -10,064.8 -1,742.0 -1,088.9
-8.0 -3.3 7.8 -1.4 -11.2 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
-397.6 -1,991.2 -1,542.0 942.5 -1,039.4 4,162.8 -1,991.5 -1,683.7 -2,903.0 -4,699.9 -2,846.0 -489.5
2014P 1 2 3 4
-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8
529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8
-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3
155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1
1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6
-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8
63 Statistical Appendices
Capital & financial account
Period
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 11. Prices (2010=100) Consumer Prices Period
All Items
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
64
Producer prices
Services
y-o-y change (%)
Core
y-o-y change (%)
All Items
y-o-y change (%)
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
104.0 106.3 107.7
4.0 2.2 1.3
105.7 108.9 110.1
5.7 3.0 1.0
102.7 104.2 105.8
2.7 1.4 1.5
103.2 104.9 106.6
3.2 1.6 1.6
106.7 107.5 105.7
6.7 0.7 -1.6
108.7 108.9 106.2
8.7 0.2 -2.5
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.3 105.0 104.9 104.7 104.8 105.2
4.5 4.7 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.2
105.9 107.1 107.1 106.6 106.8 107.3
6.4 6.8 5.0 4.5 6.0 5.7
103.1 103.3 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.5
2.9 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8
103.7 103.8 103.7 103.6 103.9 104.3
3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.6
107.2 107.4 107.4 107.3 107.0 107.1
7.0 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.3
109.3 109.5 109.6 109.4 108.9 109.0
9.1 8.9 8.0 7.4 6.5 5.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4
107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0
4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6
103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8
2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5
3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2
107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8
3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4
3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.2
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.2
Source: The Bank of Korea
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12. Employment
Period
Economically active persons (thousand)
Employed persons (thousand) All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Manufacturing
y-o-y change (%)
SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment (%)
25,099 25,501 25,873
1.4 1.6 1.5
24,244 24,681 25,066
1.7 1.8 1.6
4,091 4,105 4,184
1.6 0.3 1.9
18,595 19,033 19,347
2.1 2.4 1.6
3.4 3.2 3.1
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,473 25,257 25,076 25,409 25,318 24,880
1.0 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.4
24,636 24,495 24,318 24,673 24,589 24,125
1.4 2.0 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.9
4,079 4,031 4,014 4,044 4,054 4,071
1.0 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 -2.1
18,844 18,739 18,595 18,856 18,921 18,833
1.9 3.1 2.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139
2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0
23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402
2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183
-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8
18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010
3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9
3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6
65 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 13. Financial indicators (period average) Period
66
Yields(%)
Stock
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI(end-period)
2010 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96
Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 6월호 내지.indd 66
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14. Monetary indicators (billion won) Period
Reserve money
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2 y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
2011
75,232.0
11.3
425,675.1
6.6
1,708,984.5
4.2
2,208,170.4
5.3
2012
82,131.1
9.2
441,963.6
3.8
1,798,625.7
5.2
2,379,518.7
7.8
2013
91,379.4
11.3
484,062.9
9.5
1,885,781.3
4.8
2,543,299.4
6.9
2011 7
74,069.7
10.6
418,973.1
3.8
1,705,451.5
3.2
2,208,624.3
4.6
8
75,642.3
12.4
422,649.3
5.4
1,719,437.8
4.0
2,230,191.9
5.5
9
77,942.2
10.9
425,196.4
5.1
1,729,531.1
4.2
2,243,675.6
5.7
10
76,944.6
10.1
421,480.1
4.1
1,742,645.4
4.4
2,263,627.7
6.1
11
76,617.3
10.3
423,111.9
2.0
1,753,296.4
4.4
2,279,234.1
6.2
12
77,842.5
8.9
432,602.2
1.6
1,756,597.4
4.4
2,288,816.9
6.2
2012 1
81,635.4
11.0
439,352.9
2.3
1,757,058.7
4.8
2,292,213.5
6.5
81,655.3
8.3
437,193.9
1.1
1,762,988.4
5.3
2,302,065.8
7.2
79,068.0
8.3
440,075.4
2.1
1,773,172.9
5.7
2,341,626.9
8.8
4
80,641.8
10.2
437,445.3
2.8
1,777,114.7
5.5
2,349,723.2
8.6
5
80,547.7
9.1
438,795.3
3.5
1,784,220.5
5.5
2,357,701.0
8.4
6
81,804.0
9.5
441,611.0
4.7
1,796,981.5
5.9
2,377,071.3
8.5
7
81,555.7
10.1
441,760.6
5.4
1,807,289.2
6.0
2,393,737.7
8.4
8
82,369.1
8.9
439,573.2
4.0
1,817,134.9
5.7
2,405,239.9
7.8
9
82,958.7
6.4
440,034.3
3.5
1,819,290.1
5.2
2,415,263.5
7.6
10
85,078.6
10.6
444,477.8
5.5
1,822,420.9
4.6
2,424,000.4
7.1
11
82,956.5
8.3
445,463.9
5.3
1,830,280.3
4.4
2,440,062.8
7.1
12
85,302.7
9.6
457,778.9
5.8
1,835,556.7
4.5
2,455,962.9
7.3
2013 1
85,839.3
5.1
464,914.5
5.8
1,841,128.1
4.8
2,469,789.3
7.7
2
88,855.7
8.8
472,239.6
8.0
1,857,135.0
5.3
2,488,539.0
8.1
3
89,523.5
13.2
472,430.1
7.4
1,862,405.5
5.0
2,499,718.1
6.8
4
87,729.0
8.8
475,330.0
8.7
1,867,726.3
5.1
2,512,459.7
6.9
5
89,654.8
11.3
475,526.7
8.4
1,870,289.7
4.8
2,518,239.1
6.8
6
91,207.6
11.5
486,587.5
10.2
1,884,193.2
4.9
2,533,750.8
6.6
7
90,643.7
11.1
488,982.7
10.7
1,890,728.6
4.6
2,549,443.5
6.5
8
93,729.6
13.8
481,416.9
9.5
1,888,658.4
3.9
2,557,336.3
6.3
9
95,130.6
14.7
490,518.7
11.5
1,903,187.1
4.6
2,577,546.7
6.7
10
93,640.4
10.1
491,947.9
10.7
1,908,557.6
4.7
2,587,071.4
6.7
11
93,609.9
12.8
499,242.7
12.1
1,923,339.2
5.1
2,605,873.9
6.8
12
96,988.5
13.7
509,617.9
11.3
1,932,026.4
5.3
2,619,029.5
6.6
2013 1
98,541.6
14.8
515,742.5
10.9
1,937,045.6
5.2
2,635,100.1
6.7
2
100,547.9
13.2
518,475.5
9.8
1,954,340.7
5.2
2,647,674.0
6.4
3
100,624.0
12.4
520,299.0
10.1
1,964,954.0
5.5
2,659,370.7
6.4
4
98,898.5
12.7
518,809.3
9.1
1,970,361.6
5.5
2,669,341.4
6.2
Statistical Appendices
2 3
67
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 15. Exchange rates (end-period) \/US$ Period
68
\/100￥
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
2011 2012 2013
1,153.3 1,071.1 1,055.3
1.3 -7.1 -1.5
1,485.2 1,247.5 1,004.7
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5 1,104.5 1,150.3 1,153.3
-11.3 -9.9 3.3 -2.0 -0.6 1.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014 1 2 3 4 5
\/Euro
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
6.3 -16.0 -19.5
1,494.1 1,416.3 1,456.3
-1.3 -5.2 2.8
1,353.2 1,396.8 1,536.6 1,458.0 1,475.7 1,485.2
-1.2 -0.7 12.7 4.8 7.4 6.3
1,507.9 1,547.3 1,601.4 1,562.7 1,532.9 1,494.1
-2.9 2.7 2.9 -0.4 1.0 -1.3
1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1
1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5
8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0
1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3
-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 6월호 내지.indd 68
14. 6. 25. 오후 6:03
Gwanghwamun Square Gwanghwamun Square is a public open space located in front of Gwanghwamun, the main gate of Gyeongbokgung. The plaza, which features the statues of Admiral Yi Sun-Sin and King Sejong the Great, as well as a water fountain that attracts people seeking relief from the summer heat, has become one of Seoul's major landmarks since it opened in 2009.
Useful economy-related websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
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Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
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