ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.7 July 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol. 36 No.7 July 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
New Economic Team’s New Economic Policies Korea, China Agree to Open Direct Yuan-Won Currency Market
Economic News Briefing
Korea, China Pledge to Deepen Economic Ties KONEX Shows Steady Growth in First Year Korea-EU FTA Enters Fourth Year FDI Exceeds US$10 billion in First Half of 2014
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
For free subscriptions and enquiries, please contact: Foreign Press Spokesperson’s Office Ministry of Strategy and Finance Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro
July 2014
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
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Nanji Hangang Park The swimming pool at Nanji Hangang Park is one of seven outdoor pools located along the Han River in Seoul. The riverside swimming pools, which are operated by the Seoul Metropolitan Government, are popular summer attractions due to their inexpensive admission fees and easy access to public transportation.
Useful economyrelated websites
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Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:26
contents
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends 03
Overview
04
1. External economic situation
09
2. Private consumption
11
3. Facility investment
13
4. Construction investment
15
5. Exports and imports
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production
19
7. Service sector activity
21
8. Employment
25
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
29
10. Balance of payments
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
37
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
42
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
44 Policy Issues 45
New Economic Team’s New Economic Policies
48
Korea, China Agree to Open Direct Yuan-Won Currency Market
49 Economic News Briefing 53 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Board Coordinators Editor
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Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI), Kim Yong-Jin (MOSF) Choi Jae-Hyuk (MOSF), Lee Seong-Pyo (KDI), Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF), Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) David Friedman (MOSF)
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Th Gr e ee nB oo k Cu rre nt
2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Ec on om ic T ren ds
Overview
1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports
6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
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OVERVIEW Despite employment and inflation continuing to remain stable, the economic recovery has been slowing down as the index of all industry production fell for the second consecutive month in May due to decreases in mining and manufacturing production, public administration, and construction activities. The economy added fewer jobs in May than it did in April, adding only 413,000 jobs year-on-year. Consumer prices in June remained stable in the 1 percent range and increased 1.7 percent year-on-year, the same level of increase as the previous month. Mining and manufacturing production dropped by 2.7 percent month-on-month in May as major exports such as automobiles and mobile phones slowed down and the number of days worked decreased due to holidays such as Children’s Day and Buddha’s Birthday. Retail sales and service output in May recovered somewhat from the slump they experienced following the Sewol ferry disaster, improving 1.4 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. The indices have yet to fully recover from a fall in April, when retail sales fell 1.6 percent and service output dropped 1.2 percent. Facility investment in May declined 1.4 percent month-on-month as both transportation equipment investment and machinery investment fell. Construction completed fell 6.0 percent from the previous month’s 6.9 percent increase, due to municipal and provincial elections. The composite index of coincident indicators and the composite index of leading indicators fell by 0.4 points and 0.2 points, respectively.
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Exports rose 2.5 percent in June, recovering from a 1.0 percent fall in the previous month, due to an increase in exports to the US and an increase in semiconductor and vessel exports. The trade surplus was US$5.29 billion. The stock market plummeted in the beginning of June due to external uncertainties, including political unrest in Iraq, but ended the month increased as economic indicators improved in the US, China and other major economies. The value of the won rose. In June, housing prices across the country rose slightly (up 0.02%) despite a fall in the prices in the Seoul metropolitan area, as prices in areas other than the Seoul metropolitan area continued to increase. Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices increased 0.10 percent, up from the 0.07 percent increase seen in the previous month.
3 The Green Book
k
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
The economic recovery faltered as the index of all industry production fell while consumption and investment have yet to fully recover. The Korean government will continue to closely monitor internal and external economic trends as external risks remain, including US QE tapering, uncertainties in emerging economies, and the weakening of the yen, and at the same time will work to protect domestic markets from external shocks. The government will implement policies to support the working class and stimulate the economy, and will continue to successfully implement the Threeyear Plan for Economic Innovation to strengthen Korea’s economic fundamentals.
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
1. External economic situation The global economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, led by the US. However, downside risk factors remain, such as a slowdown in emerging economies and geopolitical risks arising from tensions in Ukraine and Iraq.
4
There are other uncertainties in the global economy, such as the possibility of an additional monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank, as well as concerns that the Japanese economic slowdown triggered by the sales tax hike may continue.
US
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The US economy contracted by 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014, but regained growth momentum in the second quarter, led by the private sector, such as employment, consumption and the housing market.
The housing market has picked up, with existing home sales (up 4.9%, m-o-m) and new home sales (up 18.6%, m-o-m) surging in May and home prices rising 1.2 percent month-on-month in April. New home sales (m-o-m, %)
Industrial production in May rose 0.6 percent monthon-month, recovering from the previous month’s temporary slump. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which forecasts business sentiment, posted 55.3 in June.
13.5 (Jan 2013) > -20.0 (Jul) > -1.1 (Nov) > -0.7 (Dec)
ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50)
0.7 (Q1 2013) > 6.0 (Q2) > 5.3 (Q3) > 1.0 (Q4)
55.4 (Jul 2013) > 57.3 (Nov) > 56.5 (Dec) > 51.3 (Jan 2014) >
>
3.4 (Jan 2014) > -4.4 (Feb) > -6.9 (Mar) > 6.4 (Apr) >
18.6 (May) Case-Shiller Home Price Index (q-o-q, m-o-m, %) -0.1 (Jan 2014) > 0.0 (Feb) > 0.9 (Mar) > 1.2 (Apr)
53.2 (Feb) > 53.7 (Mar) > 54.9 (Apr) > 55.4 (May) > 55.3 (Jun)
Although retail sales increased at a slower rate in May, rising 0.3 percent, compared to 0.5 percent in the previous month, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose in June.
Nonfarm payrolls were up 288,000 in June, rising by more than 200,000 for the fifth consecutive month. The unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent. Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 89 (Jul 2013) > 274 (Nov) > 84 (Dec) > 144 (Jan 2014) >
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) 81.0 (Jul 2013) > 72.0 (Nov) >77.5 (Dec) > 79.4 (Jan 2014) > 78.3 (Feb) > 83.9 (Mar) > 81.7 (Apr) > 83.0 (May) > 85.2 (Jun)
222 (Feb) > 203 (Mar) > 304 (Apr) > 224 (May) >
288 (Jun) Nonfarm payroll increase in June by industry (Out of 288,000 jobs added, thousands)
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UniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndex(1966=100)
262 (private sector): 4 (mining), 16 (manufacturing),
85.1 (Jul 2013) > 75.1 (Nov) >82.5 (Dec) > 81.2 (Jan 2014) >
6 (construction), 236 (service)
81.6 (Feb) > 80.0 (Mar) > 84.1 (Apr) > 81.9 (May) > 82.5 (Jun)
26 (public sector)
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US GDP growth and industrial production Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board 10
(%)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
5
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor 800
(thousands) (%)
600
12 10
400 200
8
0
6
-200
The Green Book
1200
4
-400 -600
2
-800
0
-1000 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2013.1
2014.1
Unemployment rate (right)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual Real GDP² - Personal consumption expenditure - Corporate fixed investment - Housing construction investment Industrial production Retail sales Existing home sales Unemployment rate³ Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.8 2.2 7.3 12.9 3.8 5.1 8.9 8.1 2.1
1.9 2.0 2.7 12.2 2.9 4.2 8.9 7.4 1.5
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014¹ Apr May
Jun
1.1 2.3 -4.6 12.5 1.0 1.5 0.7 7.7 1.7
2.5 1.8 4.7 14.2 0.5 0.5 3.5 7.5 1.4
4.1 2.0 4.8 10.3 0.6 0.9 4.4 7.2 1.5
2.6 3.3 5.7 7.9 1.2 0.9 -7.1 7.0 1.2
-2.9 1.0 -1.2 -4.2 1.1 0.2 -6.9 6.7 1.4
-0.3 0.5 1.5 6.3 2.0
6.1 -
0.6 0.3 4.9 6.3 2.1
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
China The Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014, a slight slowdown compared to the 7.7 percent growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2013. However, major indicators such as industrial production and exports improved in May, and the manufacturing PMI rose for the fourth consecutive month in June. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.5 (Jan 2014) > 50.2 (Feb) > 50.3 (Mar) > 50.4 (Apr) > 50.8 (May) > 51.0 (Jun)
6
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Real GDP
9.3
7.7
7.9
2013¹ Q2 Q3
Q4
Dec
Q1
7.7
-
7.4
9.7
8.7
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.8
9.7
9.5
9.1 10.1 10.0
2014¹ Apr May -
-
8.7
8.8
Industrial production
13.9
10.0 10.0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
23.8
20.6 20.6
19.6 20.9 20.1 20.2 19.6 19.6 17.6
17.3 17.2
Retail sales
17.1
14.3 14.9
13.1 12.4 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 12.0
11.9 12.5
Exports
20.7
8.3
9.5
8.6 18.9
4.2
4.0
7.5
4.3 -4.7
0.9
7.0
Consumer prices²
5.4
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.8
2.9
2.5
1.8
2.5
Producer prices²
6.0
-1.7 -2.3
2.4
2.3
-1.9 -1.7 -2.7 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 -2.0
-2.0 -1.4
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 18
(%)
(%)
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
EB 7월호 내지.indd 6
70
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
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Japan In Japan, production and consumption improved slightly in May due to a low base effect from April, when demand plunged as a result of the sales tax hike. However, exports fell. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.7 percent month-on-month in May, while the core CPI increased 3.4 percent. On June 24, the Japanese government announced a new growth strategy, which includes corporate tax cuts and regulatory reform.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014¹ Mar Apr
7
May
-0.5
1.4
0.0
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.2
0.2
1.6
-
-
-
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
1.3
0.6
2.8
0.3
-2.8
0.5
Retail sales
-1.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
3.9
6.4
-13.6
4.6
Exports (y-o-y)
-2.7
-2.8
-5.5
9.7
1.2
7.1
12.8
17.4
7.0
1.8
5.1
-2.7
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
1.6
3.4
3.7
The Green Book
Real GDP
1. Preliminary Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 6
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0 -5
-2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -25
-6
-30
-8 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
Eurozone The eurozone continues on a gradual recovery path, but inflation remains low. Industrial production rose 0.8 percent month-on-month in April, while consumer prices rose 0.5 percent year-on-year in June. The ECB decided on July 3 to hold its benchmark interest rate and deposit rate for banks steady at 0.15 percent and -0.1 percent, respectively. ECB president Mario Draghi mentioned that the central bank may utilize unconventional monetary policies if inflation continues to remain low.
8
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014¹ Apr May
Jun
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Real GDP
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
-
-
-
Industrial production
-2.5
-0.7
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.8
-
-
Retail sales
-1.7
-0.9
0.0
0.1
0.5
-0.4
0.7
-0.2
0.0
-
Exports (y-o-y)
7.6
1.0
1.0
1.8
0.3
1.0
1.3
-2.9
-
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.5
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.5
1. Preliminary Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat 3
(%) 10 8
(%)
2
6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -10
-3 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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2. Private consumption
Private consumption in the first quarter of 2014 (preliminary GDP) increased 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and 2.5 percent compared to a year ago.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 Annual Annual
Q1
2012¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
2014¹ Q1
Private consumption²
2.9
1.9
0.8
0.2
1.2
0.4
2.0
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.2
(y-o-y)
-
-
1.7
0.7
2.6
2.7
-
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 8
9
(%)
6
The Green Book
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in May rose 1.4 percent compared to the previous month as gains in durable goods (up 3.9%) and nondurable goods (up 1.7%) offset
declines in semi-durable goods (down 2.3% ). Compared to a year ago, retail sales rose 1.0 percent.
Retail sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15 (%) 10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
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2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Retail sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Durable goods
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
(Percentage change from previous period)
10 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Retail sales (y-o-y) - Durable goods² · Automobiles - Semi-durable goods³ - Nondurable goods4
2011 2012 Annual Annual Q3 1.4 4.5 2.4 2.7 10.3 5.3 3.2 7.0 2.4 -4.4 4.2 -0.4 -0.1 2.1 2.0 1.3
Q4 -0.1 2.5 2.1 12.0 1.1 -1.8
Annual 0.8 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.6
Q1 -1.0 0.3 -4.1 -7.2 1.4 -0.6
2013 Q2 Q3 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.8 -0.3 2.2 2.1 -0.4 0.9 1.3 1.5
Q4 0.3 1.2 0.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.8
Dec Q1 -1.2 0.3 0.2 2.5 -2.1 4.4 -4.4 12.0 -0.7 -1.5 -0.7 -1.0
2014¹ Apr¹ May¹ -1.6 1.4 0.0 1.0 -0.3 3.9 6.6 -2.4 -2.7 -2.3 -1.9 1.7
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
It is unclear that retail sales continue to improve in June, as advanced estimate data on consumption have been mixed. Despite domestic sales of cars growing faster year-on-year in June, the number of cars sold decreased compared with the previous month (102,000 > 101,000). The growth of wireless service sales slowed, while sales at department stores and
large discount stores declined year-on-year. Wireless service sales (thousands, Korea Telecommunications Operators Association) 1,226 (Jan 2014) > 1,297 (Feb) > 592 (Mar) > 398 (Apr) > 890 (May) > 847 (Jun)
However, positive factors remain, such as the accelerating growth of credit card use. (y-o-y, %)
2013 Credit card use Department store sales Large discount store sales Domestic sales of gasoline Domestic sales of cars
Nov 4.2 5.3 1.0 0.4 -8.5
Dec 3.6 -0.3 -5.7 2.6 -11.8
2014 Jan 9.1 6.8 18.6 -2.9 4.1
Feb 2.5 -2.4 -23.1 2.2 9.6
Mar 7.0 -1.1 -3.7 -0.2 0.9
Apr 5.2 -1.4 -4.1 -0.9 10.1
May 3.8 0.8 1.7 2.5 3.9
Jun 5.2 -3.1 -5.8 4.3 7.5
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for June data)
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3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) declined 1.9 percent quarter-on-quarter but rose 7.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2014.
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
Annual
2012 Q3
Q4
Annual¹
Facility investment²
0.1
-3.2
-3.3
-1.5
(y-o-y)
-
-3.4
-6.4
-
0.3
-4.4
-5.3
-3.5
-2.6
4.4
-0.4
0.1
1.8
4.0
11.3
-6.4
- Machinery - Transportation equipment
2013¹ Q2
Q3
1.5
1.0
-12.7
-3.9
Q1
Q4
2014¹ Q1¹
2.7
5.6
-1.9
1.5
10.9
7.3
6.5
3.7
-4.9
-6.5
10.7
5.5
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
11 Facility investment 40
The Green Book
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) (%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
The facility investment index in May fell 1.4 percent month-on-month as both transportation equipment investment and machinery investment decreased. The index increased 4.8 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012 Annual Annual Facility investment index
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1¹
Jan
2014¹ Feb Mar
Apr¹
May¹ -1.4
-2.8
-1.3
-3.1
1.1
5.0
5.9
-5.2
-4.4
-0.6
1.4
2.4
-
-
-13.1
-4.0
2.7
10.4
5.9
-1.6
12.3
7.0
10.7
4.8
- Machinery
-2.7
-2.6
-3.5
2.9
4.5
7.3
-8.6
-8.7
2.8
-0.7
1.6
-0.4
- Transportation equipment
-3.0
2.3
-2.0
-4.0
6.4
2.5
4.7
8.0
-9.3
7.7
3.9
-4.0
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 60
(y-o-y, %)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
12
-40 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Transportation equipment
2014.Q1
Machinery
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The facility investment outlook is mixed, as exports have been improving but the average manufacturing operation ratio and facility investment adjustment pressure have been falling. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 82 (Oct 2013) > 83 (Nov) > 78 (Dec) > 79 (Jan 2014) > 81 (Feb) > 85 (Mar) > 86 (Apr) > 86 (May) > 81 (Jun) >78 (Jul)
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 11
(y-o-y, %)
(trillion won)
60
9
50
8
40 30
7
20
6
10 0
5
-10
4
-20 -30
3
-40
2 2004.Q1
-50 2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
EB 7월호 내지.indd 12
80 70
10
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012 Annual Annual Domestic machinery orders
-13.9
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-Public
-11.0
-Private
-14.2
2013 Q1 Q2
6.7 -11.4
8.8
-
3.9
6.8
20.6 -47.0 94.2 5.2
Q3
Q4
Q1¹
2.2 32.4 17.9 -6.9 27.7
Jan
2014¹ Feb Mar Apr¹ May¹
-7.1 10.9 45.7 22.9 -16.0
-2.8
4.2
3.7 31.3 -14.8 -21.6
-9.7 129.7 184.6 -36.9 -28.8 735.6
5.1 -59.8
-6.1
4.0
3.8 22.1
4.1
-4.7 15.4
3.0 23.8 -10.1
6.5 -11.8
-2.1
6.8 13.2
2.3
-9.9 11.9
5.7 14.9 13.5
Machinery imports
-3.0
Average manufacturing operation ratio
78.5
76.2
77.3 75.9 75.1 76.6 77.1 78.2 75.8 77.5 77.6 74.7
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-0.7
-1.4
-2.6
-1.6
-1.7
0.3
-0.6
-5.9
2.9
1.6
1.4
-3.5
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
13 Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the first quarter of 2014 rose 5.1 percent quarter-onquarter and 5.5 percent year-on-year.
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012¹ Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
2014¹ Q1¹
-3.9
1.2
-2.4
6.7
6.5
4.6
0.2
-5.2
5.1
-
-2.7
-6.2
-
1.9
9.8
8.8
5.4
5.5
Annual Construction investment² (y-o-y) - Building construction
-1.6
1.7
-1.6
8.8
5.4
7.2
0.5
-4.0
5.1
- Civil engineering works
-7.1
0.4
-3.6
3.7
8.1
1.0
-0.1
-6.9
5.1
The Green Book
4. Construction investment
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 15 (%) 10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
EB 7월호 내지.indd 13
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends The value of construction completed (constant) in May fell 6.0 percent month-on-month as both building construction and civil engineering works decreased. The index fell 1.8 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
2012 Annual Annual -5.0 10.1 -6.6 14.8 -3.0 4.3
Q1 3.5 4.4 5.6 1.0
2013 Q2 Q3 6.3 -0.1 15.0 10.5 7.7 0.4 4.6 -0.9
2014¹ Q1¹ Jan Feb Mar 1.5 8.4 -3.4 -3.5 6.5 11.4 6.5 2.5 6.0 10.9 -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 4.6 -5.6 -2.8
Q4 -0.7 9.7 2.9 -5.5
Apr¹ 6.9 3.1 8.5 4.1
May¹ -6.0 -1.8 -4.3 -8.9
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
14
40
(y-o-y, %)
30 20
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Civil engineering works
Despite the decrease in new housing supply, construction investment is expected to improve, led by increasing public expenditures. Unsold houses (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 68 (Aug 2013) > 66 (Sep) > 64 (Oct) > 64 (Nov) > 61 (Dec) > 59 (Jan 2014) > 52 (Feb) > 48 (Mar) > 46 (Apr) > 49 (May) New apartment sales (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 28 (Aug 2013) > 24 (Sep) > 50 (Oct) > 44 (Nov) > 12 (Dec) > 6 (Jan 2014) > 11 (Feb) > 24 (Mar) > 39 (Apr) > 39 (May) > 22(Jun) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
2012 Annual -6.2 -4.7 -9.1 -0.5
Annual -15.3 -13.4 -19.2 -7.3
Q1 -40.8 -2.2 -34.0 -50.4 -12.4
2013 Q2 Q3 -29.5 -10.6 0.3 16.8 -29.6 -10.8 -29.4 -10.0 -14.6 -3.4
Q4 22.4 2.8 17.9 33.4 -0.2
2014¹ Q1¹ Jan Feb Mar Apr¹ May¹ 15.5 49.5 21.7 -11.8 47.0 1.5 -1.4 4.2 13.8 -33.7 57.0 -22.5 10.7 70.5 1.8 -10.5 61.6 52.1 24.4 26.9 67.1 -14.7 23.6 -54.5 18.4 -16.4 66.1 13.0 34.7 7.4
1. Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
EB 7월호 내지.indd 14
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 340
(y-o-y, %)
290 240 190 140 90 40 -10 -60 -110 -160 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Construction orders
2013.1
2014.1
Building permit area
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 11.6 (mobile phones), 11.0 (semiconductors), 10.1 (vessels), 9.8 (steel), -5.4 (automobiles), -14.8 (petroleum products) Export growth by region (y-o-y, %)
The Green Book
5. Exports and Imports
15
15.8 (US), -1.1 (China), -2.2 (EU), -8.1 (ASEAN countries), -9.3 (Japan)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was up 4.9 percent year-on-year, posting US$2.28 billion in June.
Exports in June increased 2.5 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$47.84 billion. Despite a decrease in days worked (down 1.5 days) , exports rose due to increasing exports to the US and shipments of mobile phones and semiconductors.
Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 8.9 (Jan 2014) > -3.3 (Feb) > 1.5 (Mar) > 9.0 (Apr) > 5.9 (May) > 4.9 (Jun)
(US$ billion)
2013 Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
2014 May Jun¹
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
Jan-Jun¹
559.63
135.32
141.16
136.79
146.37
46.69
137.59
47.84
47.84
283.57
2.1
0.3
0.7
2.8
4.7
-1.0
1.7
-1.0
2.5
2.6
2.05
2.02
2.06
2.00
2.11
2.17
2.07
2.22
2.28
2.13
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
EB 7월호 내지.indd 15
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Exports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 140 120
(y-o-y, %)
100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Export growth rate
16
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Semiconductors
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Automobiles
Steel
Imports in June rose 4.5 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$42.55 billion.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Imports grew faster in June, as imports of commodities, capital goods and consumer goods all rose. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) 0.8 (commodities), 7.1 (capital goods), 18.4 (consumer goods)
(US$ billion)
2013 Imports
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
2014 May Jun¹
Jan-Jun¹
515.58
129.73
126.76
126.03
133.06
40.72
132.38
42.53
42.55
263.29
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
-2.9
-2.8
0.3
2.5
-3.0
2.0
0.3
4.5
2.7
Average daily imports
1.89
1.94
1.85
1.84
1.91
1.89
1.99
1.98
2.03
1.98
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 80
(y-o-y, %)
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Import growth rate
EB 7월호 내지.indd 16
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Commodities
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital goods
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Exports and imports Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 70 (US$ billion) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Trade balance
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Exports
Imports
(US$ billion)
2013 Trade balance
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
2014 May Jun¹
44.05
5.59
14.40
10.76
13.30
5.97
5.21
5.31
Jan-Jun¹
5.29
20.28
The Green Book
The trade balance (preliminary) in June remained in the black for the 29th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US$5.29 billion.
17
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production decreased 2.7 percent month-on-month in May, as gains in utilities were offset by declines in mining and manufacturing. Compared to the same period in the previous year, the index was down 2.1 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of mechanical equipment (up 2.7 %) and refined petroleum (up 3.2%) rose, while automobiles (down
EB 7월호 내지.indd 17
7.4%) , semiconductors & parts (down 4.7%) and audio-visual communications equipment (down 6.8%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of refined petroleum (up 6.6%) and primary metals (up 0.8%) rose, while other transportation equipment (down 12.7%) and audio-visual communications equipment (down 11.3%) declined.
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50
(%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
18
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 120.6 percent as inventories declined 2.2 percent and shipments fell 1.9 percent. Inventories of automobiles (up 1.9%) , audio-visual communications equipment (up 8.2%) and leather & shoes (up 4.9%) rose, while refined petroleum (down 18.6%) , primary metals (down 2.7%) and electrical equipment (down 7.4%) declined.
Shipments of mechanical equipment (up 5.8%) , refined petroleum (up 2.8% ) and electrical equipment (up 2.5%) rose, while automobiles (down 8.5%) , semiconductors & parts (down 2.9%) and audio-visual communications equipment (down 2.9%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 2.9 percentage points month-on-month to 74.7 percent.
Shipment and inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 10 8
(m-o-m, %)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1
2005.1
Shipment growth
EB 7월호 내지.indd 18
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Inventory growth
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 100
(%)
90 80 70 60 50 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
In June, mining and manufacturing production is expected to be affected by positive factors, such as a low base effect and increasing exports, and negative factors, such as a sluggish recovery in domestic consumption.
19
(Percentage change from previous period)
Q1
0.3 0.3 0.4 -1.4 2.3 5.0 76.2 1.7
-0.5 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.7 1.6 -0.6 77.3 1.8
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
4. Percentage change from same period in previous year
Q4
Apr
Q1¹
2014¹ Mar Apr¹ May¹
-0.9 0.1 1.9 0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.1 -2.7 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.7 2.8 2.5 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 2.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 -0.1 -2.9 0.0 0.1 1.8 2.1 0.6 2.8 2.7 -2.3 -0.6 -0.1 1.7 -0.3 -0.1 1.7 -0.6 -1.9 -1.1 1.6 1.7 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.6 -2.4 -0.2 -2.0 1.6 -0.4 -0.1 2.7 -2.0 -1.3 -2.1 5.7 2.4 -0.9 -0.4 1.7 1.4 -2.2 75.9 75.1 76.6 75.9 77.2 77.5 77.6 74.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
The Green Book
Mining production (q-o-q, m-o-m) (y-o-y) Manufacturing production (q-o-q, m-o-m) Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic demand - Exports Inventory³ Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity4
Annual
2013 Q2 Q3
Source: Statistics Korea
7. Service sector activity Service output in May rose 0.6 percent month-on-month, led by wholesale & retail, entertainment, cultural & sports services and publishing & communications services. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 0.6 percent. Wholesale & retail (up 1.5%, m-o-m), entertainment, cultural & sports services (up 6.9%, m-o-m) and hotels & restaurants (up 0.5%, m-o-m), which had been negatively affected by the Sewol ferry disaster, recovered in May. Education services (down 1.4%, m-o-m), business services (down 0.7%, m-o-m) and transportation services (down 0.9%, m-o-m) declined.
EB 7월호 내지.indd 19
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Service output is likely to slow down in June, due to weak wholesale & retail as sales declined in department stores and large discount stores, and also due to weak financial & insurance services. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 4.6 (Dec 2013) > 5.5 (Jan 2014) > 5.4 (Feb) > 5.6 (Mar) > 5.6 (Apr) > 5.5 (May) > 5.4 (Jun)
Service sector activity Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 20
(%)
15 10
20
5 0
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
-5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Weight
2012 Annual Q4 Annual Q1
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4 Dec Q1
0.4
2014¹ Apr¹ May¹
Service activity index
100.0
1.6
0.1
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.9 -0.1
0.5 -1.2
0.6
- Wholesale & retail
21.6
0.8
0.3 -0.2
-0.8
0.1 -0.1
0.6 -1.5
0.1 -1.8
1.5
- Transportation services
8.5
1.2
-0.1
1.1
0.7
0.1 -1.0
0.6
1.1
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2 -1.2
-2.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
- Publishing & communications services
8.4
3.0
-0.3
1.9
0.6 -1.0
14.7
- Financial & insurance services
2.4
0.5
0.9
3.4 -0.9 -2.0 -1.5
1.8 0.3
2.8
1.0
0.5
-0.1 -1.1 -0.5
0.6
1.0
- Real estate & renting
5.3 -4.8
0.7
2.5
-2.2
7.4 -3.6
3.6
0.1 -3.2
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
3.7
-0.2
3.3
0.2
4.9 -2.9
- Business services
3.3
3.5
0.2
2.2
1.6 -0.4
- Education services
10.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8 -1.0
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
6.7
0.7
5.0
0.8
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.8
-3.0 -0.5
1.7
- Membership organizations & personal services
3.6 -1.4
- Sewerage & waste management
0.6 -0.6
0.0
5.3
-4.3 -0.4
0.7 -0.9
2.7 -0.9 -3.1 -1.6 -3.1 2.7 -1.2 2.5
2.1
0.7 -2.1
0.4 -0.7
2.2
1.6
0.4
0.2
1.6 -1.9 -0.7
1.2
0.7 -0.6
1.1 -1.1 -1.4
1.1
2.5
1.6
0.3
1.5 -0.1 -0.1
0.6
0.2 -0.2
3.2
1.4 -11.6
3.1 -0.7
3.5
0.2
3.5
0.1
0.5
0.9
1.2
5.1
0.2 -2.9 -5.4
0.6
6.9
4.8 -2.3
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
EB 7월호 내지.indd 20
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
May 2014 service output by business Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 12 10
(y-o-y, %)
8
Real estate & renting
6
Publishing & communications services
Transportation services
4 2
Professional, scientific & technical services
Entertainment, cultural & sports services
Education services
Sewerage & waste management
0 Total index
-2
Wholesale & retail
-4 -6
Financial & insurance services
Health & social welfare services
Business services
Hotels & restaurants
Membership organizations & personal services
-8 -10 -12
21
The number of workers on payroll in May increased by 413,000 from a year earlier to 25,810,000 and the employment rate rose 0.4 percentage points to 60.8 percent. By industry, employment grew at a slower pace in services, adding only 327,000 jobs in contrast to
adding over 500,000 jobs in April. Employment growth accelerated in manufacturing.
The Green Book
8. Employment
By employment status, the number of regular workers continued to increase, while nonwage workers, such as the self-employed, continued to decrease.
Number of persons employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 1,000
(thousands)
(millions)
800
26 26 25
600
25 24
400
24 200
23 23
0
22
-200
22
-400
21 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
EB 7월호 내지.indd 21
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 62
(%)
61 60 59 58 57 56 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Original data
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
Employment by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
22
100
80
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
60
71.0 70.8 70.3 69.7 69.2 69.1 69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4
40 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 20
0
16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.2 4.4 4.7 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4
2012.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Services
9
10
11 12 2013.1 2
3
Construction
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Manufacturing
11 12 2014.1 2
3
4
5
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0
80
23.1 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1
60
19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5
40
20
45.4 45.4 44.9 44.3 44.0 44.4 44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1
0 2012.1 2
3
4
5
Unpaid family workers
EB 7월호 내지.indd 22
6
7
8
9
10
11 12 2013.1 2
Self-employed workers
3
4
5
Daily workers
6
7
8
9
10
11 12 2014.1 2
Temporary workers
3
4
5
Regular workers
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Number of employed (millions)
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4 May Q1
2014 Apr May
23.83 24.24 24.68 24.99 24.80 25.07 24.18 25.33 25.41 25.35 25.40 24.91 25.68 25.81
Employment rate (%)
58.7 59.1 59.4 60.0 59.4 59.5 57.7 60.2 60.3 60.0 60.4 58.8 60.6 60.8
(Seasonally adjusted)
58.7 59.1 59.4 59.5 59.2 59.5 59.2 59.4 59.7 59.9 59.4 60.4 60.2 59.7
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
323 415 437 506 342 386 257 324 421 541 265 729 581
413
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
405 440 451 504 344 394 266 351 402 556 306 717 610
471
- Manufacturing
191
63
14
85 140
148
33
-2
22
17 -40
- Construction - Services
79 119 122
49 105 123
96
-9 -13
-3
14
200 386 416 397 236 318 199 212 354 507 189 570 531
327
-19 -64
-6
26 4
27
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-82
12 -29
-58
- Wage workers
517 427 315 317 303 483 329 472 526 604 453 711 589
437
· Regular workers
697 575 436 485 469 615 554 638 632 637 661 606 532
441
· Temporary workers
-34
121
-25
-78
-14
2
-2
-2 -79 -109
-8
-9 -27
19 -15 -41
-96 -152 -169 -65
2 -190
74 154
-146
-70 -120 -89 -57
-37 -73
- Nonwage workers
-194
-11 121 189
39
-97 -71 -148 -105 -63 -188
19
-8
-24
· Self-employed workers
-118
1 124 143
33
-67 -28 -104 -83 -54 -117
-7
-3
-31
- Male
181 238 234 284 172 186 123 179 179 262 153 373 289
200
- Female
142 177 203 223 170 200 135 145 242 279 112 357 292
212
- 15 to 29
-43
-35
-36 -57 -80
-50 -117 -88 -41
- 30 to 39
-4
-47
-31
-21 -15
- 40 to 49
29
57
11
- 50 to 59 - 60 or more
33 -10 12
-3
22
12
3 -42 -35 -19
46 -85
8 -34 -42 -6
30
11
53 -28
31 -97 -125
97
94
23
-6 -60
-42
99
68
22
294 291 270 273 220 254 196 254 279 285 230 323 273
227
47 149 222 245 215 181 181 156 187 200 136 218 206
182
Source: Statistics Korea
23 The Green Book
· Daily workers
The number of unemployed persons in May increased by 154,000 year-on-year to 950,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.6 percentage points to 3.6 percent. The unemployment rate rose in all age groups.
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 6 (%) 5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 7월호 내지.indd 23
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends 2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 May Q1 Number of unemployed (thousands)
24
2014 Apr May
920
855
820 770 722
807 907 812 777 733 797 1,031 1,030
951
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
31
-65
-35
-16 -18
-13 -40 -29
- Male
-7
-48
-26
- Female
38
-17
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7
(Seasonally adjusted)
7 11 -10
125
205
151
-16 -13
-6 -7 -20 11 -7 -7
40
95
50
-9
0 -6
-7 -33 -9 -4 18 -2
84
110
105
3.4
3.2
3.0 2.8
3.1 3.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.0
4.0
3.9
3.6
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.1 3.0
3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2
3.5
3.7
3.7
-15 to 29
8.0
7.6
7.5
6.8 7.0
8.0 8.4 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.4
9.8 10.0
8.7
- 30 to 39
3.5
3.4
3.0
2.8 2.7
3.0 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.6 3.0
3.2
3.6
3.3
- 40 to 49
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.0 1.8
2.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.1
2.3
2.6
2.6
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.2 1.8
1.9 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9
2.2
2.3
2.4
- 60 or more
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.9 1.6
1.8 3.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.6
4.4
2.0
1.8
Source: Statistics Korea
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The economically inactive population in May was down 162,000 from a year earlier to 15,690,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.7 percentage points to 63.0 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to old age (up 115,000, y-o-y) and disabilities (up 6,000, y-o-y) increased, while those due to housework (down 133,000, y-o-y) , rest (down 94,000, y-o-y) , and childcare (down 58,000, y-o-y) decreased.
Labor force participation rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 65 (%) 64 63 62 61 60 59 58 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 7월호 내지.indd 24
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q3 Q4 Annual Q1
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4 May Q1
2014 Apr May
Economically inactive population (millions) 15.84 15.95 16.08 15.90 16.26 16.22 16.83 15.91 15.98 16.17 15.85 16.40 15.70 15.69 Labor force participation rate (%)
61.0 61.1 61.3 61.8 61.1 61.5 59.9 62.2 62.1 61.7 62.3 61.3 63.0 63.0
(seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
61.0 61.1 61.3 61.4 61.1 61.5 61.2 61.3 61.6 61.7 61.3 62.6 62.6 62.0 143
112
128
- Childcare
-125
-5
-2
- Housework
201
101
123 101 126
-3 143
- Education
12
-51
-12
77 118 147
88 -44 118 -76 -56
-32
- Old age
80
-45
148 156 186
54 154
7
32
21
21
80 110
115
-56
182
-53 -142 -125
-7 -106
44
12
21
74 -197 -175
-94
- Rest
57 244 -7
5
-3
39
141 336 242 1
0
10
78 -91 273 -433 -374 -162 9 -14
36 -80 -112
-8 -29 -53
-58
66 -230 -184 -133
Source: Statistics Korea
25 The Green Book
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI in June rose 0.4 percent to 2,002 points from 1,995 points in the previous month. The KOSPI fell early in the month due to political unrest in Iraq and the strong won, but rebounded as investment sentiment improved due to positive economic data in the US and China.
Stock prices 2,200 2,000
(monthly average)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
KOSPI
EB 7월호 내지.indd 25
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
KOSDAQ
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends (End-period)
May 2014
KOSPI Jun 2014
Change¹
Stock price index (points)
1,995.0
2,002.2
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,192.6
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
May 2014
KOSDAQ Jun 2014
Change¹
7.2 (0.4%)
546.5
537.1
-9.4 (-1.7%)
1,197.2
4.6 (0.4%)
132.0
130.0
-2.0 (-1.5%)
3.7
3.9
0.2 (5.4%)
1.9
1.4
-0.5 (-26.3%)
35.5
35.3
-0.2 (-0.6%)
10.7
10.8
0.1 (0.9%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
26
9.2 Exchange rate
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The dollar-won exchange rate in June fell 8.3 won to 1,011.8 won from 1,020.1 won at the end of May. The dollar-won exchange rate declined due to the weakening of the dollar, continuing current account surplus, and foreign investors’ buying of Korean shares. The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell from 1,003.8 won in May to 999.0 won in June, despite slight gains in the yen, as the current account surplus continued in Korea. (End-period)
2008 Dec
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
May
2014 Jun
Change¹
Dollar-Won
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,020.1
1,011.8
4.3
100 Yen-Won
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
1,003.8
999.0
0.3
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
Foreign exchange rates 1,800
(month-end, \)
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1
2005.1
Dollar-Won
EB 7월호 내지.indd 26
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
100 Yen-Won
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Daily foreign exchange rate trend 1,800
(\)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000 800 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dollar-Won
100 Yen-Won
9.3 Bond market
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea 10 9
(monthly average, yearly, %)
27 The Green Book
3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 2.82 percent in May to 2.68 percent in June. Treasury bond yields declined as a preference for safe assets grew due to external uncertainties such as the crisis in Iraq. Concerns that the economic recovery may be hampered by the Sewol ferry disaster also affected Treasury bond yields.
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2013.1
2014.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(End-period, %)
Call rate (1 day)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
Mar
2.01
2.51
3.29
2.77
2.52
2.49
Apr
2014 May
Jun
Change¹
2.50
2.49
2.49
-
CD (91 days)
2.88
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.66
2.65
2.65
2.65
2.65
-
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.44
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.86
2.87
2.87
2.82
2.68
-14
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.56
4.27
4.21
3.29
3.29
3.30
3.30
3.24
3.10
-14
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.98
4.08
3.46
2.97
3.23
3.16
3.17
3.04
2.88
-16
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
EB 7월호 내지.indd 27
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
9.4 Money supply & money market
M2 (monthly average) in April rose 5.5 percent from a year earlier. Money supply in the government sector declined due to slowing public expenditures, but private sector credit rose, led by household loans, and money supply in the overseas sector expanded due to inflows of portfolio investment funds.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
28
2009 Annual
2010 Annual
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
2013 Annual
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr
Apr¹
M1²
16.3
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
9.8
10.1
9.1
518.8
M2
10.3
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
5.2
5.5
5.5
1,970.4
Lf ³
7.9
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
6.4
6.4
6.2
2,669.3
1. Balance at end April 2014, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
Reserve money
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
M1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Lf
Bank deposits surged, led by instant access deposits (-4.6 trillion won > 11.3 trillion won) due to large inflows of corporate settlement funds, as well as time deposits (-0.5 trillion won > 3.6 trillion won). Asset management company (AMC) deposits also rose, led by money market funds (MMF) (-3.3 trillion won > 6.5 trillion won) , due to inflows of banks’ surplus funds.
EB 7월호 내지.indd 28
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr
May
May¹
Bank deposits
54.8
36.9
58.9
37.0
41.0
11.7
-0.7
-3.3
13.9
1,199.7
AMC deposits
-27.6
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
17.7
6.7
-5.6
-3.1
6.0
347.4
1. Balance at end May 2014, trillion won
Deposits in financial institutions Source: The Bank of Korea 30
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
20
29
10
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
10. Balance of payments
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The Green Book
0
Korea’s current account (preliminary) in May posted a surplus of US$9.30 billion, staying in the black for 27 consecutive months. The goods account surplus contracted from US$10.65 billion in April to US$9.35 billion in May, as exports and imports both declined compared to the previous month. Goods exports (US$ billion) 56.72 (Apr 2014) > 52.61 (May) Goods imports (US$ billion) 46.07 (Apr 2014) > 43.26 (May)
EB 7월호 내지.indd 29
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus contracted by US$0.24 billion as exports fell 1.0 percent due to fewer days worked.
billion to US$0.34 billion as the other business and transportation account improved. Services account (US$ billion, April > May)
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)
-0.51 > -0.45 (manufacturing), 0.25 > 0.44 (transportation),
26.6 (vessels), 7.4 (steel), -1.0 (semiconductors), -2.3
-0.54 > -0.44 (travel), 1.25 > 0.98 (construction), -0.27 > -0.55
(automobiles), -9.8 (mobile phones)
(intellectual property rights), -1.13 > -0.39 (other business)
Export growth by region (y-o-y, %)
The primary income account switched from a deficit of US$1.62 billion to a surplus of US$0.73 billion due to an increase in dividend income, while the secondary income account deficit contracted from US$0.86 billion to US$0.44 billion.
32.0 (EU), 5.5 (US), -0.8 (Japan), -3.3 (ASEAN countries), -9.4 (China)
The services account deficit contracted from US$1.04
30 Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
12
(US$ billion)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Services account
Goods account
2014.1
Current account
(US$ billion)
2013¹ Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
May
Q1
Current account
79.88
10.46
20.80
23.78
24.84
9.75
15.07
2014¹ Mar Apr
May
7.29
7.12
9.30
- Goods balance
80.57
12.08
20.00
23.88
24.62
9.59
17.75
7.97
10.65
9.35
- Service balance
-7.93
-3.51
-0.41
-2.06
-1.94
-0.30
-3.62
-0.65
-1.04
-0.34
- Primary income balance
11.42
2.78
1.84
3.16
3.64
0.67
1.91
0.32
-1.62
0.73
- Secondary income balance
-4.18
-0.89
-0.62
-1.19
-1.48
-0.21
-0.96
-0.36
-0.86
-0.44
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 7월호 내지.indd 30
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in May posted a net outflow of US$7.63 billion.
foreign investors’ equity investment declined and fixed-income investment switched to a net outflow.
Capital & financial account balance (US$ billion)
Net inflows of financial derivatives investment contracted from US$0.86 billion to US$0.53 billion, while other investment switched from a net outflow of US$5.94 billion to a net inflow of US$4.45 billion due to withdrawals from overseas accounts and loan repayment.
-7.74 (Dec 2013) > -4.48 (Jan 2014) > -6.92 (Feb) > -5.78 (Mar) > -6.24 (Apr) > -7.63 (May)
Net outflows of direct investment expanded from US$2.16 billion to US$3.34 billion, as foreign direct investment switched to a net outflow. Portfolio investment switched from a net inflow of US$1.16 billion to a net outflow of US$3.31 billion as
The current account in June is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by the surplus in the goods account, which resulted from a trade surplus(US$5.29 billion).
31
Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
The Green Book
15 (US$ billion) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Portfolio investment
11. Prices and international commodity prices
EB 7월호 내지.indd 31
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Financial derivatives
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital & financial account
11.1 Prices Consumer prices in June fell 0.1 percent month-onmonth, declining for the first time in eight months. Compared to the same month of the previous year, consumer prices rose 1.7 percent.
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Consumer price inflation
Month-on-Month Year-on-Year
(%)
Jun
Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar Apr
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
1.2
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
May
Jun
0.1
0.2
-0.1
1.5
1.7
1.7
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 7
(%)
6 5
32
4 3 2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
1 0 -1 -2 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
Consumer prices fell month-on-month, led by agricultural products (down 4.1%) , petroleum products (down 0.9%) and personal services (down 0.1%) .
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
0.6%) and processed food (up 0.3%) rose, but petroleum product prices (down 0.9%) fell due to the strong won. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices fell 1.3 percent month-on-month. Livestock product prices rose 2.8 percent due to seasonal demand, while the prices of agricultural products and fishery products declined 4.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) pork (7.3), watermelons (-34.0), oriental melons (-31.0),
sportswear (9.5), milk powder (11.7), ham (9.5), sausages (4.8), automotive LPG (-3.6), blenders (-16.8)
Personal service prices fell 0.1 percent month-onmonth, as travel service prices declined owing to decreased demand after long holidays in May and early June. Dining out expenses rose 0.1 percent, and personal service prices excluding dining out costs fell 0.2 percent.
potatoes (-27.2) Price increases by item (m-o-m, %)
Manufactured product prices declined 0.1 percent from the previous month. The prices of textiles (up
EB 7월호 내지.indd 32
overseas group tour expenses (-2.9), domestic group tour expenses (-12.2), hotel expenses (-2.2)
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) (%p)
5 4 3 2 1 0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2012
2013
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured products
Housing rents
Public services
Personal services
Public utilities
33 previous month, fresh food prices fell 4.2 percent. Fresh food price increases (y-o-y, %) -12.9 (Jan 2014) > -12.4 (Feb) > -11.3 (Mar) > -12.0 (Apr) Price increases for basic necessities (y-o-y, %)
> -9.2 (May) > -7.7 (Jun)
0.6 (Jan 2014) > 0.4 (Feb) > 0.8 (Mar) > 1.0 (Apr) > 1.4 (May) > 1.4 (Jun)
Fresh food prices declined 7.7 percent year-on-year, led by vegetables (down 13.5%) . Compared to the
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products and show long-term price trends, rose 2.1 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent month-on-month.
The Green Book
Consumer prices for basic necessities rose 1.4 percent year-on-year but fell 0.2 percent from the previous month.
Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 16
(y-o-y, %)
13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Consumer price inflation
EB 7월호 내지.indd 33
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Core inflation
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Producer price inflation
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Core inflation and prices for basic necessities
(y-o-y, %)
2013 2014 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2
2.1
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8
1.7
Consumer prices for basic necessities
0.5 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4
1.4
Source: Statistics Korea
The expected annual inflation was unchanged from the previous month at 2.8 percent, while import prices fell 6.8 percent year-on-year. Expected inflation (%, over the next 12 months)
34
2.9 (Oct 2013) > 2.9 (Nov) > 2.9 (Dec) > 2.9 (Jan 2014) > 2.9 (Feb) > 2.8 (Mar) > 2.9 (Apr) > 2.8 (May) > 2.8 (Jun) Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -7.3 (Oct 2013) > -4.9 (Nov) > -3.5 (Dec) > -3.0 (Jan 2014) > -4.8 (Feb) > -4.5 (Mar) > -7.0 (Apr) > -6.8 (May)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices rose in June due to geopolitical instability such as the unrest in Iraq. Dubai crude prices surged after the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), a Sunni extremist group, seized northern Iraq on June 11. Dubai crude ($/barrel) 105.6 (Jun 2) > 105.4 (Jun 11) > 109.5 (Jun 13) > 110.5 (Jun 19) > 111.2 (Jun 23) > 109.3 (Jun 30)
(US$/barrel, period average)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar Apr
May
Jun
Dubai crude
105.9
109.0
105.3 103.5 107.1 107.9 105.6 105.5 107.5 104.0 105.0 104.4 104.6 105.6 107.9
Brent crude
111.0
111.7
108.7 107.7 110.8 111.6 109.3 108.0 110.7 107.7 108.9 107.7 107.8 109.4 111.8
95.1
93.8
WTI crude
98.0 104.7 106.7 106.2 100.5
94.0
97.9
94.9 100.7 100.5 102.0 101.8 105.2
Source: Korea PDS
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14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai crude
WTI
35
Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,865.0 (1st week Jun) > 1,862.9 (2nd week) > 1,859.8 (3rd week) > 1,859.1 (4th week) (Won/liter, period average)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Jul
Aug
2013 Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar Apr
May
Jun
The Green Book
Domestic oil product prices fell in June, as low international oil prices before the unrest in Iraq and the strong won were reflected with a time lag.
Gasoline prices 1,929.3 1,985.8 1,925.5 1,933.1 1,947.7 1,934.6 1,907.3 1,880.0 1,881.1 1,886.4 1,880.7 1,880.8 1,875.9 1,869.5 1,861.7 Diesel prices
1,745.7 1,806.3 1,729.6 1,729.7 1,743.6 1,734.3 1,711.8 1,692.9 1,699.1 1,705.1 1,698.5 1,696.0 1,688.9 1,680.9 1,670.8
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
(thousand won/B)
($/B)
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
EB 7월호 내지.indd 35
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends International grain prices declined in June as weather conditions in the US and the Black Sea region improved, and also as world grain supply was expected to improve next year. International grain prices in June (m-o-m, %) wheat (-13.6), soybeans (-3.0), corn (-8.8)
Nonferrous metal prices were mixed. Aluminum prices rose due to supply concerns. Indonesia has banned exports of bauxite, the main source of aluminum, while plans to build alumina refineries are being delayed. Meanwhile, nickel prices, which had been rising since Indonesia banned exports on January 12, fell in June as a result of profit-taking. Nonferrous metal prices in June (m-o-m, %) aluminum (4.9), zinc (3.2), lead (0.3), tin (-2.3), copper (-1.1), nickel (-4.5)
36 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual 3,062
3,006
2,774
Jul
2013 Aug Sep
2,701
2,662 2,630 2,655 2,623 2,642 2,574 2,586 2,641 2,650 2,608 2,569
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar Apr
May
Jun
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
International commodity prices Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 510 470
4000
430 390
3000
350 310
2000
270 230
1000
190 150
0
2004.1
2005.1
CRB (left)
EB 7월호 내지.indd 36
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Reuters index (right)
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market
Apartment sales prices rose in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.1%). Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.1 percent.
Nationwide apartment sales prices in June remained unchanged from the previous month.
Apartment sales price increase in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %)
Apartment sales prices inched down in Seoul (down 0.1%) and were unchanged in Gyeonggi Province.
Busan (0.0), Daegu (0.2), Gwangju (0.0), Daejeon (-0.1), Ulsan (0.4)
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Nov
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
Apr
May
Jun 0.0
1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
Gangnam¹
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
0.1
-0.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Gangbuk² Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
0.2
0.3
0.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
The Green Book
Nationwide
Dec Annual
37
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment sales prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0 (m-o-m, %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0 2009.1
Nationwide
EB 7월호 내지.indd 37
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Nationwide apartment rental prices in June rose 0.1 percent month-on-month. Rental prices rose 0.1 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, and also in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.1), Seocho (-0.1), Songpa (-0.2), Yangcheon (-0.3), Yongsan (0.2)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Nov
38
Dec Annual
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Apr
May
Jun
Nationwide
7.1
12.3
3.5
4.7
0.5
0.4
1.9
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
Seoul metropolitan area
6.3
11.0
2.1
6.2
0.7
0.6
2.6
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.1
Seoul
6.4
10.8
2.1
6.6
0.7
0.5
2.1
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Gangnam¹
7.6
11.1
2.4
6.7
0.6
0.5
1.9
0.9
0.7
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
Gangbuk²
5.1
10.6
1.8
6.4
0.8
0.5
2.3
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
0.3
0.3
1.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0
(m-o-m, %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0 2009.1
Nationwide
EB 7월호 내지.indd 38
7
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
Seoul metropolitan area
2012.1
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Apartment sales transactions in May decreased 16.1 percent from 92,691 transactions in the previous month to 77,754 transactions, and were down 13.7 percent from a year earlier (90,136).
Apartment sales transactions
(Monthly average, thousands)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Nationwide
73
67
82
61
90
130
40
47
57
90
85
93
59
79
89
93
78
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Monthly apartment transaction volume Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport 160
(thousands)
140
39
120 100
60 40 20 0 2009.1
7
2010.1
7
Nationwide
2011.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
The Green Book
80
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in May rose 0.15 percent month-on-month. Land price growth decelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.15%), which includes Seoul (up 0.18%) and Incheon (up 0.07%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (Oct 2013) > 0.16 (Nov) > 0.15 (Dec) > 0.11 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.22 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr) > 0.15 (May)
Land price growth also decelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.15%) , led by Busan (up 0.18%), Daegu (up 0.25%) and Sejong (up 0.49%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (Oct 2013) > 0.15 (Nov) > 0.16 (Dec) > 0.10 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.17 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr) > 0.15 (May)
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14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4 Annual
2014 Mar
Q1
Apr
May
Nationwide
-0.31 0.96 1.05 1.17 0.87 0.21 1.14 0.21 0.37 0.10 0.46 0.78 0.45 0.20 0.18 0.15
Seoul
-1.00 1.40 0.53 0.97 0.33 0.09 1.21 0.10 0.41 0.08 0.61 1.10 0.69 0.29 0.23 0.18
Gyeonggi
-0.26 1.22 1.49 1.47 0.97 1.32 0.91 0.17 0.33 0.07 0.34 0.53 0.26 0.14 0.14 0.13
Incheon
1.37 1.99 1.43 0.66 0.36 0.13 0.87 0.21 0.37 0.07 0.23 0.54 0.37 0.22 0.09 0.07
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Land prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 15
40
(%)
12 9 6
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
National average
Metropolitan city
2011 2012 2013
City
County
Land and consumer prices since 1970s Sources: Korea Appraisal Board (land prices), Statistics Korea (consumer prices) 60
(y-o-y, %)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1974
1977
Land price inflation
EB 7월호 내지.indd 40
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Consumer price inflation
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
There were 207,000 land transactions in May, down 11.2 percent from the previous month. Land transactions decreased nationwide, including Seoul (down 16.6%, m-o-m) , Gyeonggi Province (down 14.9%, m-o-m), Gwangju (down 19.2%, m-o-m) and Daejeon (down 17.7%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 41.6 percent of the total land transactions, fell 5.9 percent month-on-month to 86,000 but rose 2.9 percent year-on-year.
Land transactions 2008
(Land lots, thousands)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Nationwide
203
187
208
170
187
26
22
16
18
13
17
246 169 153 144 208 201 236 183 205 227 233 207 26
13
13
14
20
19
22
17
20
24
22
18
Gyeonggi
45
46
41
43
33
37
49
33
29
30
44
41
50
37
42
47
49
42
Incheon
13
10
8
10
8
8
11
6
6
7
10
9
9
7
10
10
11
9
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
The Green Book
208
Seoul
41
Land transaction volume Source: Korea Appraisal Board 600,000
(thousand m²)
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Seoul metropolitan area
EB 7월호 내지.indd 41
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators The index of all industry production in May fell 1.0 percent month-on-month and 0.7 percent year-on-year. Mining & manufacturing (down 2.7%, m-o-m) , construction (down 6.0 %, m-o-m) and public administration (down 0.6%, m-o-m) declined, while services (up 0.6%, m-o-m) inched up.
Index of all industry production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 20
42
(%)
15 10
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Index of all industry production(y-o-y)
Oct
2013 Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2014 Mar¹
Apr¹
May¹
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
1.4 4.2
-0.3 1.4
0.4 2.0
1.1 0.9
-1.5 1.4
0.7 2.7
-0.6 1.4
-1.0 -0.7
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
100.2 0.1
100.2 0.0
100.4 0.2
100.7 0.3
100.6 -0.1
100.7 0.1
100.4 -0.3
100.0 -0.4
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
100.8 0.4
101.1 0.3
101.5 0.4
101.6 0.1
101.5 -0.1
101.3 -0.2
101.5 0.2
101.3 -0.2
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p) 1. Preliminary
EB 7월호 내지.indd 42
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.4 points in May. Among the seven components of the coincident composite index, only retail sales rose. Components of the coincident composite index in May (m-o-m) retail sales (0.5%), mining & manufacturing production (-0.6%), service output (-0.1%), value of construction completed (-1.1%), domestic shipments (-0.3%), imports (-0.7%), nonfarm payroll employment (-0.2%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
100
43
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.2 points. Three components of the leading composite index rose, while six other components either fell or remained unchanged.
The Green Book
90
Components of the leading composite index in May (m-o-m) domestic shipments of machinery (1.0%), international commodity prices (0.2%), KOSPI (1.0%), indicator of inventory cycle (-0.8%p), ratio of export to import prices (0.0%), consumer expectations index (-1.0p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (0.0%p), value of construction orders received (-7.1%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-2.4%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
100
90 2004.1
EB 7월호 내지.indd 43
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
44 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
PO LIC Y ISS UE S New Economic Team’s New Economic Policies Korea, China Agree to Open Direct Yuan-Won Currency Market
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14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
New Economic Team’s New Economic Policies Background
Slowing down domestic demand has led to a vicious cycle of low growth – low inflation – large current account surpluses. If these trends continue, the Korean economy will see growth and inflation contract along with exports and domestic demand. Household income and corporate earnings will contract as well.
45 Policy Issues
The Korean economy has been losing recovery momentum due to weak domestic demand as well as a slowdown in the global economy. Falling disposable income, which is attributed to a shortage of decent jobs, one of the outcomes of passive corporate investment, has been affecting domestic demand, while limited money supply, which results from financial institutions managing their funds conservatively, depresses the real economy.
Against this backdrop, the government needs to pursue game-changing policies in order for the Korean economy to break free of this vicious cycle and take its next leap forward. The government will adopt long-term, comprehensive and aggressive policies to fix the economy, rather than passive policies that impair growth momentum.
Strategies The New Economic Team’s New Economic Policies will be an aggressive stimulus, which focuses on the private sector. The government will take measures to improve household income and promote job creation, while effectively tackling problems ailing temporary workers.
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14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Policy Issues The government will take the lead in developing a creative economy and promoting economic innovation by successfully carrying out public projects, which will encourage private sector investment.
Policies 1) Stimulating domestic demand The government will inject around 41 trillion won of stimulus into the economy, 11.7 trillion won in fiscal expenditures and more than 29 trillion won in financial and foreign exchange support.
46 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The government will introduce corporate tax incentives that encourage businesses to increase employee wages, dividend payments and employment, and promote facility investment, which will raise household income, while revising tight housing market regulations that were adopted during the housing market boom. The government will also promote employment and facility investment in the service sector by increasing tax incentives for job creation and permitting the use of accelerated depreciation accounting systems. The government will reduce mortgage loan risk by regulating nonbank financial institution loans and introducing tax incentives for long-term loans with fixed interest rates and installment payments. 2) Supporting the working class To promote full-time employment, the government will provide wage support for full-time employees who previously worked as temporary employees, while gradually changing public sector temporary positions to full-time positions. On top of that, the government will improve the job security and work environments of temporary workers by providing part-time employee wage support. The government will pursue its goal of 70 percent employment by increasing young adult and female employment. Education and training programs will be strengthened in a more industry-friendly
EB 7월호 내지.indd 46
way, which will address mismatches between jobs and the labor force. Improved training programs for overseas jobs will be available for university students. The government will continue to strengthen public childcare programs to promote female re-employment. The public sector will increase the number of women in management-level positions and provide professional training programs. The government will announce more measures to improve female employment in September. The government will publish its labor force outlook for 2013-2023 in September and create a corporate employment index in order to better track employment trends, and find solutions for industries in which jobs are decreasing, including financial & insurance services and professional, scientific & technical services. In October, the government will announce measures to increase the competitiveness of self-employed businesses. If the same kind of small businesses are in operation in the same urban area, the government will designate the area as a specified zone and provide marketing support as well as help improve the business environment. Centers for Small Business Support will be established throughout the nation, and financial support will be increased. The government will utilize private-sector experts to improve traditional shopping centers and support young business owners running businesses in traditional shopping centers. The government will increase support for society’s most vulnerable by stabilizing the prices of necessities, strengthening basic social security programs and expanding unemployment benefits. National health care will now cover fertility treatment. 3) Reforming the economy The new economic team will implement the Threeyear Plan for Economic Innovation, and will review
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
47 Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choi Kyung-Hwan, who is leading the Park administration's new economic team, is making a statement at a meeting on July 23 at the National Assembly.
The government will pursue the second round of public institution reform in order to increase competitiveness. In the first round, public institutions that were heavily indebted and recklessly managed were urged to reduce debt and improve management efficiency. To more efficiently manage fiscal resources, the government will reform the public sector pension system and subsidy programs, as well as improve its national asset management practices.
The government will form task forces to develop seven promising service industries, which include tourism, healthcare services, education, financial services, software, content industry and logistics. In addition, the government will unveil measures to develop business service industries, such as design, consulting, intellectual property rights and other services provided by licensed professionals.
The government will continue to work on regulatory reform, making it more business-friendly, while listening to business by holding regular meetings and operating a hotline that offers direct access to the Deputy Prime Minister.
A meeting on the creative economy will be hosted by President Park Geun-hye and a public-private committee on the creative economy will be formed. The government will develop a ‘Silicon Valley’ for creative industries in the Seoul Metropolitan area. The government will develop plans to promote innovative manufacturing, which utilizes ICT in manufacturing, in October, and plans to strengthen manufacturing services, which include engineering, design and software, in November.
Complicated regulations involving multiple ministries and construction regulations will be reformed. The government will adopt exemplary regulatory reform, such as Jeju Special Self Governing Province's regulatory reform aimed at boosting service industries.
The government will help develop overseas markets by pursuing the Eurasia Initiative and utilizing the Knowledge Sharing Program (KSP) and the Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF), as well as promoting the use of FTAs.
EB 7월호 내지.indd 47
Policy Issues
implementation and make changes should they prove necessary.
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Policy Issues
Korea, China Agree to Open Direct Yuan-Won Currency Market At the Korea-China Leaders’ Summit held on July 3, Korea and China agreed to boost financial and monetary policy cooperation, with both sides recognizing that opening currency markets would be mutually beneficial. The two leaders agreed on the following:
48
- A direct won-yuan currency market will be opened
N
money on currency exchange fees as it will no longer be necessary to use the dollar as a medium in wonyuan transactions. Korean and Chinese corporations that engage in Korea-China export-import transactions are expected to see an increase in trade owing to the large reduction in exchange rate risk.
in Korea, and the foundations will be laid for Korea to establish a direct foreign currency market in China.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
- Infrastructure will be set up to allow for yuan clearing houses to operate in Korea, and a Chinese bank located in Seoul will be designated as a yuan clearing house. - Korea was granted an 80 billion yuan (over 13 trillion won) quota for domestic investors to purchase Chinese
2) Opportunity for the financial industry to take its next step forward The Korean financial industry will be able to further develop as the agreements will open up new business opportunities, and this should also create more jobs for financial professionals.
securities through the Remninbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) program. Taking into account market demand and how well the RQFII is utilized, the government will seek to increase this limit. - Both publicly and privately-owned financial institutions will be able to invest in China through Chinese mainland stock exchanges by participating in the Qualified Foreign
3) Boost Korea’s external soundness Lowering Korea’s reliance on the dollar by promoting currency settlement diversification is expected to improve and further stabilize Korea’s economic fundamentals, which can be sensitive to dollar inflows and outflows.
Institutional Investor (QFII) program, and any increases in investment in China that are seen will be welcomed. - Korean corporations and financial institutions, as well as corporations and financial institutions from other countries, will be encouraged to issue yuandenominated bonds in Korea.
The Korean government believes that these agreements will be seen as a groundbreaking advancement in financial and monetary policy cooperation between Korea and China.
Expected outcomes 1) Transaction costs will fall and bilateral trade will increase The direct won-yuan currency market will save
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4) Increase trade with China As yuan-denominated transactions increase, trade with China will also increase, and this is expected to have a collateral effect of also increasing cultural and human resources exchange.
Future plans A task force will be formed (composed of members from the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the Bank of Korea, the Financial Services Commission, the Financial Supervisory Service, private financial institutions, and research institutes) to stimulate yuandenominated financial services in order to ensure that the agreements are successfully implemented and beneficial to Korea in the long term.
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Ec o Ne no ws mi c Br iefi ng
49 P co E o l ni co m y iIcs New s u e s Briefing
Korea, China pledge to deepen economic ties KONEX shows steady growth in first year Overseas construction orders reach record high in first half of 2014 Korea-EU FTA enters fourth year SMEs to receive low-interest R&D loans Government to allow foreign investment in Saemangeum project Government to support future technologies FDI exceeds US$10 billion in first half of 2014
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14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
Economic News Briefing
50 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
President Park Geun-hye (right) is attending a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Cheong Wa Dae on July 3.
— Korea, China pledge to deepen economic ties Korea and China agreed to work further to develop their strategic partnership and deepen economic ties, at the Korea-China Leaders’ Summit held on July 3 in Seoul. The two countries signed an MOU on creative economy and sustainable growth, pledging to increase cooperation on venture investment, urbanization, energy saving and climate change. They also agreed to cooperate on the development of a joint economic zone in the Saemangeum costal reclamation area in Korea. The joint economic zone will be a self-sufficient area providing industrial, educational, residential and commercial facilities. In addition, Korea and China agreed to work closely to develop the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) into an international body by 2016. The GTI is a regional development cooperative body for the Northeast Asian countries of Korea, China, Russia and Mongolia, and is the most appropriate vehicle for pursuing the Park administration’s Eurasia Initiative, which is aimed at boosting trade and economic ties among Eurasian nations. With this agreement, large development projects are expected in Northeast Asia. Also at the summit, the Export Import Bank of Korea signed a joint agreement with its Chinese counterpart. According to the agreement, the Korean bank will provide loans for shipbuilding contracts between Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering and China’s Minsheng Financial Leasing. The Export Import Bank of Korea will provide US$2.95 billion in loans for the construction of three vessels, and the Chinese bank will guarantee 50 percent of the loan.
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14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
— KONEX shows steady growth in first year
— Korea-EU FTA enters fourth year
July 1 marked the first anniversary of the Korea New Exchange (KONEX), a stock market for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and startups that have huge growth potential but are too small to be listed on the KOSPI or KOSDAQ.
The Korea-EU free trade agreement (FTA) has contributed to increased exports and investment since it took effect on July 1, 2011, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy. In its third year (Jul 2013-Jun 2014), the trade volume between Korea and the EU rose 10.3 percent. Exports to the EU rose 7.8 percent, while imports were up 12.5 percent. Export and import growth with the EU were higher than Korea’s total export and import growth during the same period. However, Korea’s trade deficit with the EU has widened since the Korea-EU FTA took effect due to the European financial crisis and the weak euro.
Over the past year, the number of listed companies on the KONEX increased from 21 to 55, and the market capitalization more than doubled from 468.9 billion won to 1.18 trillion won. The market capitalization of the 21 initially listed companies grew 24 percent from 468.9 billion won to 581.5 billion won.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) from the EU to Korea amounted to US$5.56 billion over the past year. This was a sharp increase from previous years. In the year preceding the Korea-EU FTA (Jul 2010-Jun 2011), the EU-Korea FDI was US$3.84 billion, and was US$4.38 billion and US$3.80 billion in the first (Jul 2011-Jun 2012) and second (Jul 2012-Jun 2013) years, respectively.
— Overseas construction orders reach record high in first half of 2014
— SMEs to receive low-interest R&D loans
Overseas construction orders in the first half of 2014 rose 21.5 percent year-on-year to US$37.5 billion, a record high for a first half figure. The previous record was set in 2010 (US$36.4 billion), when the government won a US$18.6 billion contract to build nuclear power plants in the UAE. The Middle East accounted for 66 percent of total orders, as Korean firms won large projects in Kuwait, Algeria and Iraq. Orders from Latin America surged, as a result of government efforts to enter those markets, while orders from Asia slowed compared to the previous year.
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E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g
An average of 37,000 shares were traded each day in 2014, down from 61,000 shares in 2013. The average daily trading value also declined from 390 million won in 2013 to 260 million won in 2014. However, transactions have been growing since April, when the government announced measures to promote the KONEX market.
51
The government announced it will continue to provide low-interest loans this year to support SME research and development (R&D). The R&D loan service program was launched in 2013, when the Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK) and Woori Bank, which were chosen to administer the loans, provided 310 billion won in low-interest loans to 251 SMEs from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy’s R&D budget. This year, 300 billion won or more will be loaned at the same low rate as last year.
14. 7. 25. 오후 6:27
S
Economic News Briefing — Government to allow foreign investment in Saemangeum project
52 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n EB 7월호 내지.indd 52
The government is planning to ease rules related to the Saemangeum Reclamation Project, in a bid to attract more investors and revitalize the project. Currently, the parties allowed to take part in the project are limited to the government, public firms, general contractors, real estate investors and real estate developers. According to the new rules, more private parties will be allowed to participate in the project. This includes foreign-invested firms, which are defined as firms theat are majority-owned by foreign shareholders or firms that include more than 5 percent of foreign capital in their investment in the Saemangeum Reclamation Project. The Saemangeum project is a land reclamation project that involves developing 401 square kilometers of land along the Korean Peninsula’s west coast with the purpose of developing the region into an economic hub of Northeast Asia.
The government recently announced measures that would attract more investors to the Saemangeum Reclamation Project. An aerial view of the Saemangeum seawall in November last year is shown below.
— Government to support future technologies
— FDI exceeds US$10 billion in first half of 2014
The Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning has announced new projects for this year’s ‘New Industry Creation Project’, a national initiative launched in 2013 that provides support to promising technologies with the goal of creating marketable products and services within the next two years. A total of 14.4 billion won will be invested over two years in fields such as 3D printing, cloud services, tangible contents, the internet of things (IoT), and biosensors. A group of private sector experts selected six projects among 151 candidates, and they include creating biodegradable medical devices with 3D printers, building a cloud platform for schools, and applying the IoT technology to farming.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2014 rose 39.7 percent from the same period of the previous year to US$10.07 billion, setting a first-half record. Investment from the Greater China Region increased 615.3 percent to US$2.38 billion, thanks to increasing interest in cultural contents and food, and investment from Europe was up 40.3 percent to US$3.25 billion, led by manufacturing. Meanwhile, exports in the first five months of 2014 increased 2.6 percent from the same period of the previous year to US$235.7 billion, showing moderate growth despite external risks such as the weak yen and the slowing Chinese economy.
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1. National accounts
53 Statistical Appendices
Sta tist i App cal en dic es 2. Production, shipment and inventory
3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index
5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
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Statistical A ppendic es 1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices) Real GDP
Period
54
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P
3.9 5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 3.0
1.4 1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 5.8
5.8 7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.3
4.4 5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2
2.0 3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 4.2
-0.1 0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 6.7
4.8 8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -1.5
2005 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.5 3.6 4.5 4.9
0.5 4.8 3.8 -3.1
3.6 4.5 7.0 8.1
2.2 4.5 5.5 5.3
0.6 1.7 2.1 3.3
-2.5 1.1 0.0 0.3
3.7 2.1 4.3 9.1
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.6 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
4.7 5.1 5.5 4.6
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.6 2.5 1.6 -3.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-4.7 -1.0 0.5 5.2
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.9 3.5 4.0 3.2
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.2 -2.4 -5.8 7.0
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.5 3.6 2.4 1.5
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.3 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0
8.2 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
-0.3 -2.2 -0.1 -0.7
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
1.2 0.1 1.8 1.9
6.2 -2.3 -1.0 -3.4
-0.2 -5.4 -2.7 -6.2
11.1 -1.8 -4.2 -4.0
2013P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7
0.4 2.9 7.4 9.9
1.8 2.8 3.8 4.5
1.0 1.6 1.5 1.6
-2.6 5.0 5.9 7.8
1.9 9.8 8.8 5.4
-12.7 -3.9 1.5 10.9
2014P Ⅰ
3.9
7.7
5.6
2.1
5.9
4.3
7.3
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100) Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
106.0 107.4 107.7
6.0 1.3 0.3
105.6 107.2 107.6
5.6 1.5 0.4
119.9 125.2 131.4
15.0 4.4 5.0
103.2 104.8 106.3
3.2 1.6 1.4
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.6 107.5 104.0 109.7
9.1 6.2 5.4 3.4
103.4 106.6 103.2 109.3
10.0 5.4 4.7 2.8
104.9 109.8 112.3 119.9
7.8 11.8 11.4 15.0
99.4 103.4 103.2 106.7
2.8 2.7 4.2 3.0
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
105.7 108.9 103.9 112.5
-0.8 0.0 0.2 1.9
105.7 108.9 104.0 111.8
-0.8 0.5 0.2 2.0
123.1 119.4 125.0 131.4
4.6 4.0 9.2 6.2
102.9 106.7 105.6 109.9
0.9 1.7 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ
106.4
0.7
105.9
0.2
130.1
5.7
104.9
1.9
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.0 106.1 111.6 106.8 110.7 109.2 106.0 100.3 104.7 108.8 112.6 110.3
-3.1 15.3 0.9 0.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.8 3.0 0.1
102.8 106.1 111.0 106.2 109.9 109.2 105.2 99.9 106.2 108.2 111.0 110.1
-2.8 13.5 0.1 -0.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 -1.4 1.9 -0.9 2.6 -0.3
119.3 117.4 117.7 116.5 118.2 114.8 115.4 119.3 114.5 116.1 121.3 125.2
14.2 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.8 4.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 0.6 3.1 4.4
100.3 99.9 105.7 102.8 105.9 105.9 104.8 103.9 105.7 104.7 105.5 112.7
0.3 6.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.5 0.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.9 96.9 109.2 109.1 110.2 107.4 107.5 103.5 100.7 112.7 111.8 113.0
8.7 -8.7 -2.2 2.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.4 3.2 -3.8 3.6 -0.7 2.4
109.5 97.8 109.8 108.8 109.8 108.1 106.6 104.4 100.9 112.0 111.3 112.1
6.5 -7.8 -1.1 2.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 4.5 -5.0 3.5 0.3 1.8
128.3 124.6 123.1 121.0 122.2 119.4 124.2 123.8 125.0 126.9 129.2 131.4
7.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.0 7.6 3.8 9.2 9.3 6.5 5.0
102.1 100.2 106.4 105.4 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.6 105.5 107.7 107.4 114.7
1.8 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1 2 3 4P 5P
106.1 100.7 112.3 111.8 107.9
-4.3 3.9 2.8 2.5 -2.1
104.5 100.8 112.5 110.8 108.1
-4.6 3.1 2.5 1.8 -1.5
133.1 129.3 130.1 130.9 129.4
3.7 3.8 5.7 8.2 5.9
104.3 101.3 109.0 106.4 108.4
2.2 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.6
55 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
56
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
104.7 106.9 108.7
4.7 2.1 1.7
100.2 97.5 94.8
0.2 -2.7 -2.8
80.5 78.5 76.2
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.5 104.5 105.0 105.6
5.7 5.1 4.3 3.5
97.8 103.5 97.7 101.9
2.2 0.8 0.1 -2.0
81.4 80.6 80.9 79.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.2 108.4 108.9 109.3
1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7
93.3 97.4 90.5 97.9
-4.3 -3.6 -2.9 -0.4
77.3 75.9 75.1 76.5
2014 Ⅰ
109.5
1.2
92.5
-0.9
77.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.7 107.2 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.6
2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.9
92.5 97.2 102.9 98.9 102.6 101.4 97.2 88.3 94.1 98.1 100.7 96.1
-8.0 11.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -6.9 -3.6 -4.6 -1.7 -4.5
80.0 80.4 79.2 79.6 79.9 78.9 78.4 74.3 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.1 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.7 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.6
1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
98.5 84.5 96.8 97.4 99.0 95.9 94.3 90.4 86.7 99.2 97.9 96.7
6.5 -13.1 -5.9 -1.5 -3.5 -5.4 -3.0 2.4 -7.9 1.1 -2.8 0.6
78.8 77.1 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 74.8 76.3 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.2
2014 1 2 3 4P 5P
109.6 109.5 109.5 109.6 109.7
1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
91.6 87.2 98.7 99.5 95.7
-7.0 3.2 2.0 2.2 -3.3
78.2 75.8 77.5 77.6 74.7
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100) Consumer goods sales index Period
y-o-y change (%)
Durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Semi-durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)
104.5 107.0 107.9
4.5 2.4 0.8
110.6 116.2 116.6
10.6 5.3 0.3
103.7 103.8 105.9
3.7 -0.4 2.0
102.1 104.1 104.7
2.1 2.0 0.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 104.8 103.7 108.9
5.3 6.2 4.0 2.6
105.4 112.2 111.4 113.3
11.5 16.9 10.3 4.4
98.3 105.5 94.2 116.7
5.1 5.2 3.6 1.2
99.6 101.2 104.4 103.3
2.7 2.0 1.5 2.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.4 106.4 106.5 111.6
2.8 1.4 2.7 2.5
109.4 114.9 118.4 122.0
4.0 2.6 6.4 8.3
99.0 105.5 92.3 118.4
0.6 -0.5 -2.3 0.5
102.6 102.8 107.2 103.8
3.1 1.7 2.8 0.5
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.7 107.7 107.2 112.9
0.3 1.2 0.7 1.2
110.9 118.2 116.8 120.2
1.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5
101.7 107.2 95.0 119.6
2.7 1.6 2.9 1.0
101.2 103.0 108.0 106.7
-1.4 0.2 0.7 2.8
2014 Ⅰ
106.3
2.5
117.5
6.0
100.0
-1.7
103.9
2.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.5 97.8 105.0 103.0 110.1 106.1 108.2 102.3 109.1 109.0 111.6 114.3
2.1 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.3 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.1
107.2 107.2 113.7 107.3 117.3 120.0 125.6 114.0 115.7 117.1 123.1 125.9
3.3 9.8 -0.4 1.0 4.4 2.2 7.4 4.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 10.6
104.7 91.9 100.4 104.8 111.4 100.3 97.3 82.1 97.6 114.8 118.8 121.5
-0.2 2.0 0.1 -1.3 0.8 -0.9 0.9 -5.1 -3.0 -2.0 5.1 -1.4
108.8 96.0 102.9 100.1 106.1 102.1 104.9 105.7 111.1 102.7 103.0 105.8
2.4 4.8 2.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 -0.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.0 105.3 110.8 106.9 109.2 104.6 107.7 111.2 113.1 114.5
-2.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.2 -1.3 2.0 1.3 0.2
112.2 105.9 114.7 115.0 119.5 120.2 127.4 116.3 106.8 120.4 120.2 120.0
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.0 -7.7 2.8 -2.4 -4.7
102.9 93.1 109.2 106.4 113.8 101.5 98.1 87.1 99.9 113.6 123.5 121.8
-1.7 1.3 8.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.8 6.1 2.4 -1.0 4.0 0.2
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.1 105.5 106.9 111.6 105.9 105.3 108.8
-6.5 3.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 3.1 2.2 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4P 5P
110.5 99.1 109.3 105.3 111.9
5.6 -0.4 2.1 0.0 1.0
116.8 117.1 118.6 114.1 122.3
4.1 10.6 3.4 -0.8 2.3
100.2 91.6 107.9 104.9 111.1
-2.6 -1.6 -1.2 -1.4 -2.4
112.1 94.0 105.5 101.2 107.5
10.2 -5.3 2.9 0.9 1.9
57 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods
Period
58
y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
100.9 102.5 101.9
0.9 1.6 -0.6
100.3 102.8 103.1
0.3 2.5 0.3
101.2 102.4 101.4
1.2 1.2 -1.0
-
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
101.0 97.9 101.5 103.3
4.6 0.9 0.8 -2.2
99.5 100.7 100.9 100.1
3.8 3.1 -0.1 -5.0
101.6 96.8 101.7 104.6
4.7 0.2 1.1 -1.1
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.8 98.4 102.1 104.5
2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4
108.0 100.6 102.3 101.5
10.4 1.5 -0.2 -9.4
100.5 97.4 101.9 105.8
-1.5 -2.8 -1.9 2.3
-
2014 Ⅰ
100.3
-2.4
103.1
-4.5
99.1
-1.4
-
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100.6 98.6 103.1 99.2 101.6 98.9 102.8 101.5 106.1 106.6 105.7 105.7
-7.0 10.9 -2.6 0.9 5.9 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 4.7 1.5
92.5 98.3 102.5 94.1 100.4 102.8 105.3 98.4 103.9 108.5 110.9 116.5
-8.3 6.0 -2.4 -3.6 1.2 -2.4 0.7 0.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 15.5
104.0 98.7 103.3 101.3 102.1 97.3 101.8 102.9 107.0 105.7 103.5 101.1
-6.6 13.1 -2.6 2.6 8.0 0.2 3.4 -1.1 4.4 -0.8 1.6 -4.1
98 102 102 106 106 101 100 101 99 100 100 99
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.4 96.7 103.2 99.1 99.3 96.7 103.2 103.7 99.3 108.7 102.8 102.0
7.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 2.2 -6.4 2.0 -2.7 -3.5
110.4 106.1 107.6 97.9 101.3 102.6 108.8 103.6 94.6 104.3 102.9 97.4
19.4 7.9 5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.3 -9.0 -3.9 -7.2 -16.4
107.5 92.6 101.3 99.6 98.5 94.1 100.8 103.7 101.3 110.6 102.7 104.0
3.4 -6.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 -5.3 4.6 -0.8 2.8
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1 2 3 4P 5P 6
102.2 96.3 102.6 101.1 99.2 -
-5.7 -0.4 -0.6 2.0 -0.1 -
99.8 106.5 103.3 97.8 103.5 -
-9.6 0.4 -4.0 -0.1 2.2 -
103.3 91.9 102.3 102.5 97.3 -
-3.9 -0.8 1.0 2.9 -1.2 -
109 108 108 108 105 107
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total
Period
2011 2012 2013
Public
y-o-y change (%)
Private
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Estimated facility investment index y-o-y (2010=100)
change (%)
7.6 -13.9 6.7
2,407 2,142 2,580
-2.6 -11.0 20.5
22,741 19,506 20,524
8.8 -14.2 5.2
103.5 100.6 99.3
3.5 -2.8 -1.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,383 6,723 5,666 6,376
15.3 9.6 -0.7 6.4
358 708 310 1,031
-36.7 83.1 -18.6 -9.5
6,025 6,015 5,356 5,345
21.2 4.6 0.6 10.1
97.0 109.4 104.5 103.0
5.2 7.4 3.2 -1.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,592 5,867 5,148 6,498
-11.4 8.8 2.2 32.4
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,163 5,313 4,625 5,423
-6.1 4.0 3.8 22.1
91.2 100.6 98.8 106.4
-13.1 -4.0 2.7 10.4
2014 Ⅰ
6,594
17.9
1,221
184.6
5,373
4.1
96.6
5.9
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,933 2,541 1,836 1,845 1,830 1,716 1,835 1,509 1,693 1,511 1,656 1,743
-0.8 25.1 -23.6 -4.4 -14.4 -35.4 -9.4 -14.2 -10 -22.5 -27.8 -18.3
52 695 63 56 39 190 310 169 100 86 127 255
-22.2 829.0 -70.9 -10.3 -72.8 -62.2 135.5 105.9 3.5 -72.3 -75.8 31.2
1,881 1,846 1,773 1,789 1,791 1,526 1,525 1,339 1,593 1,425 1,529 1,488
0.0 -5.7 -18.9 -4.3 -10.2 -29.1 -19.5 -20.1 -10.7 -13.1 -13.5 -23.3
97.7 109.1 108.2 106.2 105.8 102.3 105.4 90.1 93.1 94.5 92.4 102.2
5.6 26.4 -3.5 3.0 -4.9 -10.2 -1.6 -16.5 -5.5 1.1 -10 -9.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,847 1,666 2,079 1,846 2,127 1,894 1,935 1,623 1,589 2,606 2,109 1,784
-4.4 -34.4 13.2 0 16.2 10.4 5.5 7.6 -6.1 72.4 27.4 2.4
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.4 -28.5 815.4 28.2 -51.4
1,708 1,498 1,957 1,754 1,877 1,682 1,576 1,531 1,518 1,818 1,946 1,660
-9.2 -18.8 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.4 14.3 -4.7 27.5 27.3 11.6
89.8 83.5 100.4 98.2 101.6 102.0 108.0 100.1 88.2 108.9 101.4 108.9
-8.1 -23.5 -7.2 -7.5 -4 -0.3 2.5 11.1 -5.3 15.2 9.7 6.6
2014 1 2 3 4P 5P
1,716 1,848 3,029 2,268 1,788
-7.1 10.9 45.7 22.9 -16.0
88 120 1,013 97 100
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -59.8
1,628 1,728 2,016 2,172 1,687
-4.7 15.4 3.0 23.8 -10.1
88.4 93.8 107.6 108.7 106.5
-1.6 12.3 7.2 10.7 4.8
59 Statistical Appendices
25,148 21,648 23,105
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won) Period
60
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (Total) (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction y-o-y orders change received y-o-y (%) (Total) change (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
91,717 88,713 97,938
-0.6 35,120 -3.3 33,807 10.4 34,532
-0.1 -3.7 2.1
51,663 50,622 59,492
-2.2 -2.0 17.5
95,332 89,395 75,644
6.1 -6.2 -15.4
28,624 26,071 24,574
-2.0 -8.9 -5.7
61,839 59,811 48,888
12.3 -3.3 -18.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,277 24,057 21,423 26,960
-5.2 7,322 -0.1 9,290 -2.7 7,684 4.4 10,825
-2.1 1.8 -1.5 0.7
11,031 13,339 12,597 14,696
-7.9 -4.3 -4.3 6.9
16,335 25,319 20,444 33,233
-11.5 -0.9 5.6 25.5
4,119 6,311 6,711 11,483
-49.0 -8.4 -1.4 54.5
11,107 17,653 12,871 20,209
20.3 4.7 12.1 15.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,145 25,707 23,679 28,407
4.5 7,005 14.7 9,345 10.9 8,083 10.6 10,099
-5.9 5.1 6.4 2.3
12,375 15,377 14,674 17,066
13.6 23.6 15.8 16.8
13,425 18,143 16,454 27,621
-40.8 -29.5 -10.6 22.2
4,289 5,348 4,910 10,025
-24.1 -4.0 -9.1 6.2
8,781 12,108 11,165 16,832
-46.2 -36.6 -10.8 41.7
2014 Ⅰ
21,626
7.4
7,144
2.0
13,630
10.1
15,501
15.5
5,968
39.1
9,102
3.6
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,796 6,035 7,444 6,844 7,307 8,259 7,037 6,582 7,732 7,343 8,098 10,235
-6.3 13.2 -4.1 -4.5 -1.8 -12.6 4.2 -4.6 -0.5 -7.8 3.0 -8.1
2,123 2,373 2,945 2,644 2,873 3,374 2,372 2,322 2,904 2,591 3,003 4,282
-12.9 17.0 3.1 -3.6 3.0 -10.2 -0.3 -5.6 2.1 -10.7 -5.3 -9.9
3,373 3,405 4,115 3,903 4,106 4,431 4,281 3,943 4,452 4,452 4,773 5,387
-3.3 11.3 -8.2 -4.0 -3.4 -11.8 5.4 -3.8 0.3 -4.7 11.2 -6.0
7,468 8,488 6,714 6,428 7,310 11,993 6,823 5,390 6,181 5,800 7,239 9,556
52.0 108.1 -8.6 -4.2 2.3 4.6 32.3 -28.8 -19.9 -22.6 -19.9 -42.8
2,034 2,218 1,402 1,453 1,061 3,056 2,304 1,316 1,780 1,970 2,105 5,366
54.6 57.5 0.6 1.7 -43.9 2.2 24.2 -12.5 -46.9 -14.9 -29.5 -13.1
5,269 6,121 4,918 4,461 6,133 8,505 4,329 4,032 4,161 3,787 4,798 3,290
81.4 144.1 -13.6 -3.6 29.4 2.7 39.9 -30.3 4.2 -24.1 -18.3 -64.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,266 6,222 7,657 8,089 8,142 9,476 7,839 7,657 8,183 8,628 9,083 10,696
8.1 3.1 2.9 18.2 11.4 14.7 11.4 16.3 5.8 17.5 12.2 4.5
2,072 2,345 2,589 2,839 2,805 3,700 2,643 2,561 2,878 2,958 3,124 4,017
-2.4 -1.2 -12.1 7.4 -2.4 9.7 11.5 10.3 -0.9 14.2 4.0 -6.2
3,956 3,650 4,769 4,954 5,062 5,361 4,885 4,810 4,979 5,329 5,625 6,112
17.3 7.2 15.9 26.9 23.3 21.0 14.1 22.0 11.8 19.7 17.8 13.5
3,546 4,431 5,447 4,946 6,073 7,124 5,675 4,708 6,070 7,346 7,895 12,379
-52.5 -47.8 -18.9 -23.1 -16.9 -40.6 -16.8 -12.6 -1.8 26.7 9.1 29.5
1,289 1,287 1,713 1,558 1,559 2,231 1,412 1,493 2,004 1,500 2,648 5,877
-36.6 -42.0 22.1 7.2 47.0 -27.0 -38.7 13.5 12.6 -23.9 25.8 9.5
2,108 2,992 3,680 2,962 4,393 4,753 4,153 3,171 3,840 5,756 5,004 6,070
-60.0 -51.1 -25.2 -33.6 -28.4 -44.1 -4.1 -21.4 -7.7 52.0 4.3 84.5
2014 1 2 3 4P 5P
7,034 6,654 7,938 8,457 8,116
12.3 6.9 3.7 4.6 -0.3
2,310 2,207 2,627 2,737 2,567
11.5 -5.9 1.5 -3.6 -8.5
4,434 4,226.0 4,971.0 5,445.0 5,268.0
12.1 15.8 4.2 9.9 4.1
5,300 5,393 4,807 7,269 6,164
49.5 21.7 -11.8 47.0 1.5
2,102 2,242 1,625 1,892 2,012
62.9 74.2 -5.2 21.4 29.0
3,026 3,001 3,075 5,367 4,084
43.5 0.3 -16.4 81.2 -7.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Cyclical component of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical component of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.2 101.5 101.6 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.4
100.8 100.7 100.4 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.3 98.1
103.3 103.4 104.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.5 106.9 106.8 107.2
101.1 100.9 101.0 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.5 100.5
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.2 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.5 107.5 107.9 108.0 107.8 108.1 108.8 109.5
98.5 99.2 99.2 99.4 99.1 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9 98.8 99.1 99.4
107.3 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.9 109.8 110.3 110.2 110.8 111.4
100.2 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.0
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.0
99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 99.7 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.5
111.7 112.2 112.3 112.9 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.7
100.0 100.0 99.7 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.4
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
117.6 118.0 118.2 118.8 119.1 -
101.6 101.5 101.3 101.5 101.3 -
117.5 117.9 118.4 118.5 118.5 -
100.7 100.6 100.7 100.4 100.0 -
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 -
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0
61 Statistical Appendices
Leading index (2010=100)
Period
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 9. Balance of payments (I) (US$ million) Current account
Goods
2011 2012 2013
18,655.8 50,835.0 79,883.6
29,089.9 49,406.0 80,568.6
587,099.7 603,509.2 617,127.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-3,769.1 -1,921.2 11,994.5 12,351.6
2,453.6 2,520.5 11,435.4 12,680.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
558,009.8 554,103.2 536,559.0
-12,279.1 -5,213.6 -7,927.4
6,560.6 12,116.7 11,424.8
-4,715.6 -5,474.1 -4,182.3
133,839.7 150,171.3 150,723.9 152,364.8
131,386.1 147,650.8 139,288.5 139,684.4
-4,746.0 -3,468.8 -2,163.6 -1,900.7
-195.2 372.1 3,723.5 2,660.2
-1,281.5 -1,345.0 -1,000.8 -1,088.3
1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9
144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6
142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7
-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0
2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9
-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7
10,458.1 20,804.7 23,782.0 24,838.8
12,075.8 19,998.5 23,876.5 24,617.8
146,933.9 153,981.4 153,754.8 162,457.5
134,858.1 133,982.9 129,878.3 137,839.7
-3,512.2 -409.8 -2,062.7 -1,942.7
2,782.6 1,835.0 3,162.8 3,644.4
-888.1 -619.0 -1,194.6 -1,480.6
2014P Ⅰ
15,070.7
17,745.2
152,688.6
134,943.4
-3,618.6
1,905.8
-961.7
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,151.2 -2,409.5 3,814.7 87.8 5,265.5 6,251.8 8,413.0 1,808.7 6,665.1 7,494.2 8,293.6 7,301.3
-1,727.4 -863.1 4,252.0 -222.9 3,387.9 5,370.0 7,529.7 2,118.1 6,246.8 7,472.8 8,580.9 7,261.2
44,738.1 48,304.2 51,217.8 49,330.2 50,854.0 50,649.8 51,530.7 47,379.6 50,709.2 53,409.2 54,492.4 50,894.0
46,465.5 49,167.3 46,965.8 49,553.1 47,466.1 45,279.8 44,001.0 45,261.5 44,462.4 45,936.4 45,911.5 43,632.8
-1,017.2 -2,018.3 64.7 288.4 545.9 -662.3 110.0 -844.3 54.5 -415.4 -833.9 -485.7
1,243.3 873.2 -71.2 364.5 1,660.1 1,917.7 1,260.7 965.2 746.3 867.8 988.6 1,300.5
-649.9 -401.3 -430.8 -342.2 -328.4 -373.6 -487.4 -430.3 -382.5 -431.0 -442.0 -774.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,969.3 2,146.5 6,342.3 4,552.9 9,752.2 6,499.6 7,985.1 7,198.0 8,598.9 11,107.9 6,854.8 6,876.1
2,855.2 2,733.1 6,487.5 5,103.3 9,591.6 5,303.6 7,911.7 7,378.1 8,586.7 9,816.8 8,175.6 6,625.4
51,027.4 44,778.4 51,128.1 51,587.2 53,548.1 48,846.1 53,353.6 49,839.2 50,562.0 56,702.8 52,756.9 52,997.8
48,172.2 42,045.3 44,640.6 46,483.9 43,956.5 43,542.5 45,441.9 42,461.1 41,975.3 46,886.0 44,581.3 46,372.4
-1,783.5 -1,394.1 -334.6 5.7 -298.2 -117.3 -1,058.1 -805.9 -198.7 393.5 -1,923.2 -413.0
1,434.6 1,035.1 312.9 -354.1 670.3 1,518.8 1,396.1 912.4 854.3 1,260.6 1,010.9 1,372.9
-537.0 -227.6 -123.5 -202.0 -211.5 -205.5 -264.6 -286.6 -643.4 -363.0 -408.5 -709.1
2014P 1 2 3 4 5
3,285.3 4,499.1 7,286.3 7,124.7 9,300.3
4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,353.1
50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,610.3
46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,257.2
-1,912.1 -1,058.7 -647.8 -1,042.8 -336.1
1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1
-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.8
Period
62
Exports
Imports
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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10. Balance of payments (II) (US$ million) Capital transfers & acquisition of Reserve assets nonfinancial assets
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
2011 2012 2013
-24,315.8 -51,582.4 -76,881.1
-19,931.7 -21,136.2 -16,951.5
13,142.7 6,747.8 -8,287.1
-1,031.3 2,627.8 3,839.7
-2,542.7 -26,637.3 -41,003.7
-112.0 -41.7 -27.8
-13,952.8 -13,184.5 -14,478.5
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3,231.1 -8.5 -11,957.3 -15,581.1
-4,872.2 -5,028.1 -4,652.9 -5,378.5
-472.1 4,043.3 8,344.5 1,227.0
922.4 -160.6 -1,535.5 -257.6
11,172.4 3,754.9 -20,439.5 2,969.5
-30.0 -9.7 -5.4 -66.9
-3,519.4 -2,618.0 6,326.1 -14,141.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2
-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9
14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1
-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,560.0 -16,194.8 -23,107.8 -26,018.5
-5,148.2 -3,297.9 -3,988.6 -4,516.8
-6,461.9 -8,919.2 8,996.0 -1,902.0
1,418.9 -604.6 1,694.0 1,331.4
2,562.0 -7,439.0 -23,231.0 -12,895.7
-3.5 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
-3,930.8 4,065.9 -6,578.2 -8,035.4
2014P Ⅰ
-17177.8
-3,657.7
-13,596.7
892.6
6,207.4
-2.1
-7,023.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,295.1 435.0 -3,704.3 1,566.7 -2,645.3 -3,200.1 -9,113.6 -3,219.3 -5,763.2 -7,172.4 -9,211.9 -8,258.9
-2,022.6 -3,631.3 -1,925.7 -1,225.9 -1,687.4 -1,144.0 -1,695.4 -1,719.8 -2,290.2 -1,001.3 -1,599.7 -1,192.9
7,904.1 6,238.0 617.5 -3,114.3 -1,893.6 -1,795.1 1,730.8 646.6 1,800.3 -4,742.4 -3,886.7 3,242.6
452.6 245.8 500.1 215.0 -480.7 -4.9 358.8 -35.5 272.0 -137.8 631.8 610.6
-5,167.1 -190.9 -1,137.1 5,832.0 147.6 201.5 -8,171.9 -1,016.0 -4,059.3 185.2 -1,759.5 -11,501.8
-9.6 -5.8 -3.8 0.3 -1.0 -6.0 -5.5 -1.9 -1.6 -4.9 0.7 -2.6
-2,462.1 -2,226.6 -1,759.1 -140.1 1,268.8 -457.6 -1,335.9 -1,094.6 -1,486.0 -1,476.1 -2,597.8 582.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3,288.5 -3,297.9 -4,973.6 -1,908.3 -9,945.6 -4,340.9 -9,155.6 -7,937.6 -6,014.6 -9,880.0 -8,399.9 -7,738.6
-1,631.9 -1,145.9 -2,370.4 -21.0 -1,659.7 -1,617.2 -1,301.4 -1,275.8 -1,411.4 -296.1 -2,303.1 -1,917.6
-5,226.0 2,023.2 -3,259.1 -1,873.5 -1,091.4 -5,954.3 1,825.5 1,435.1 5,735.4 4,467.7 -1,522.8 -4,846.9
586.9 686.9 145.1 -313.2 649.2 -940.6 443.3 218.1 1,032.6 713.1 14.0 604.3
3,380.1 -2,870.9 2,052.8 -643.1 -6,804.3 8.4 -8,131.5 -6,631.3 -8,468.2 -10,064.8 -1,742.0 -1,088.9
-8.0 -3.3 7.8 -1.4 -11.2 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
-397.6 -1,991.2 -1,542.0 942.5 -1,039.4 4,162.8 -1,991.5 -1,683.7 -2,903.0 -4,699.9 -2,846.0 -489.5
2014P 1 2 3 4 5
-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -7,632.4
529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8
-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0
155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5
1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 4,450.6
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3
-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7
63 Statistical Appendices
Capital & financial account
Period
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 11. Prices (2010=100) Consumer Prices Period
All Items
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
64
Producer prices
Services
y-o-y change (%)
Core
y-o-y change (%)
All Items
y-o-y change (%)
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
104.0 106.3 107.7
4.0 2.2 1.3
105.7 108.9 110.1
5.7 3.0 1.0
102.7 104.2 105.8
2.7 1.4 1.5
103.2 104.9 106.6
3.2 1.6 1.6
106.7 107.5 105.7
6.7 0.7 -1.6
108.7 108.9 106.2
8.7 0.2 -2.5
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.3 105.0 104.9 104.7 104.8 105.2
4.5 4.7 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.2
105.9 107.1 107.1 106.6 106.8 107.3
6.4 6.8 5.0 4.5 6.0 5.7
103.1 103.3 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.5
2.9 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8
103.7 103.8 103.7 103.6 103.9 104.3
3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.6
107.2 107.4 107.4 107.3 107.0 107.1
7.0 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.3
109.3 109.5 109.6 109.4 108.9 109.0
9.1 8.9 8.0 7.4 6.5 5.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4
107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0
4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6
103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8
2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5
3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2
107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8
3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4
3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7
Source: The Bank of Korea
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12. Employment
Period
Economically active persons (thousand)
Employed persons (thousand) All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Manufacturing
y-o-y change (%)
SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment (%)
25,099 25,501 25,873
1.4 1.6 1.5
24,244 24,681 25,066
1.7 1.8 1.6
4,091 4,105 4,184
1.6 0.3 1.9
18,595 19,033 19,347
2.1 2.4 1.6
3.4 3.2 3.1
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,473 25,257 25,076 25,409 25,318 24,880
1.0 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.4
24,636 24,495 24,318 24,673 24,589 24,125
1.4 2.0 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.9
4,079 4,031 4,014 4,044 4,054 4,071
1.0 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 -2.1
18,844 18,739 18,595 18,856 18,921 18,833
1.9 3.1 2.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139
2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0
23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402
2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183
-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8
18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010
3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9
3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,325
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5
65 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 13. Financial indicators (period average) Period
66
Yields(%)
Stock
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI(end-period)
2010 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21
Source: The Bank of Korea
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14. Monetary indicators (billion won) Period
Reserve money
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2 y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
75,232.0 82,131.1 91,379.4
11.3 9.2 11.3
425,675.1 441,963.6 484,062.9
6.6 3.8 9.5
1,708,984.5 1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3
4.2 5.2 4.8
2,208,170.4 2,379,518.7 2,543,299.4
5.3 7.8 6.9
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
74,069.7 75,642.3 77,942.2 76,944.6 76,617.3 77,842.5
10.6 12.4 10.9 10.1 10.3 8.9
418,973.1 422,649.3 425,196.4 421,480.1 423,111.9 432,602.2
3.8 5.4 5.1 4.1 2.0 1.6
1,705,451.5 1,719,437.8 1,729,531.1 1,742,645.4 1,753,296.4 1,756,597.4
3.2 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4
2,208,624.3 2,230,191.9 2,243,675.6 2,263,627.7 2,279,234.1 2,288,816.9
4.6 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
81,635.4 81,655.3 79,068.0 80,641.8 80,547.7 81,804.0 81,555.7 82,369.1 82,958.7 85,078.6 82,956.5 85,302.7
11.0 8.3 8.3 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.1 8.9 6.4 10.6 8.3 9.6
439,352.9 437,193.9 440,075.4 437,445.3 438,795.3 441,611.0 441,760.6 439,573.2 440,034.3 444,477.8 445,463.9 457,778.9
2.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.4 4.0 3.5 5.5 5.3 5.8
1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4 1,773,172.9 1,777,114.7 1,784,220.5 1,796,981.5 1,807,289.2 1,817,134.9 1,819,290.1 1,822,420.9 1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7
4.8 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.5
2,292,213.5 2,302,065.8 2,341,626.9 2,349,723.2 2,357,701.0 2,377,071.3 2,393,737.7 2,405,239.9 2,415,263.5 2,424,000.4 2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9
6.5 7.2 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5
5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7
464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9
5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3
1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4
4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3
2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,873.9 2,619,029.5
7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5
98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4
14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5
515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9
10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0
1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9
5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0
2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,370.7 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9
6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6
67 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 15. Exchange rates (end-period) \/US$ Period
68
\/100￥
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
2011 2012 2013
1,153.3 1,071.1 1,055.3
1.3 -7.1 -1.5
1,485.2 1,247.5 1,004.7
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5 1,104.5 1,150.3 1,153.3
-11.3 -9.9 3.3 -2.0 -0.6 1.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6
\/Euro
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
6.3 -16.0 -19.5
1,494.1 1,416.3 1,456.3
-1.3 -5.2 2.8
1,353.2 1,396.8 1,536.6 1,458.0 1,475.7 1,485.2
-1.2 -0.7 12.7 4.8 7.4 6.3
1,507.9 1,547.3 1,601.4 1,562.7 1,532.9 1,494.1
-2.9 2.7 2.9 -0.4 1.0 -1.3
1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1
1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5
8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0
1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3
-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Nanji Hangang Park The swimming pool at Nanji Hangang Park is one of seven outdoor pools located along the Han River in Seoul. The riverside swimming pools, which are operated by the Seoul Metropolitan Government, are popular summer attractions due to their inexpensive admission fees and easy access to public transportation.
Useful economyrelated websites
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Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
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ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.7 July 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol. 36 No.7 July 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
New Economic Team’s New Economic Policies Korea, China Agree to Open Direct Yuan-Won Currency Market
Economic News Briefing
Korea, China Pledge to Deepen Economic Ties KONEX Shows Steady Growth in First Year Korea-EU FTA Enters Fourth Year FDI Exceeds US$10 billion in First Half of 2014
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
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July 2014
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
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Tel. +82 44 550 4645
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