ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.9 September 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.36 No.9 September 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
2015 Budget Planned to Support Expansionary Fiscal Policies Government to Promote Private Pension Plans
Economic News Briefing
Government to Implement Emissions Trading System in 2015 Korea Grows 0.5% in Q2 Plans to Innovate Financial Industry Unveiled S&P Raises Korea’s Credit Rating Outlook
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
For free subscriptions and enquiries, please contact: Foreign Press Spokesperson’s Office Ministry of Strategy and Finance Government Complex, 477 Galmae-ro
September 2014
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
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Danyang, North Chungcheong Province Danyang is a county located in North Chungcheong Province. Noted for its beautiful scenery, thanks to the surrounding mountains and the river that runs through it, Danyang is a popular destination for hikers and paragliders.
Useful economyrelated websites
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Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:05
contents
02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends 03
Overview
04
1. External economic situation
09
2. Private consumption
11
3. Facility investment
13
4. Construction investment
15
5. Exports and imports
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production
19
7. Service sector activity
21
8. Employment
25
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market
29
10. Balance of payments
31
11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices
37
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market
42
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
44 Policy Issues 45
2015 Budget Planned to Support Expansionary Fiscal Policies
51
Government to Promote Private Pension Plans
53 Economic News Briefing 57 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Editorial Board Coordinators Editors
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Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI), An Il-Whan (MOSF) hoi Jae-Hyuk (MOSF), Lee Seong-Pyo (KDI), Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) C Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF), Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) David Friedman (MOSF), Kim Seul-Ki (MOSF)
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Th Gr e ee nB oo k Cu rre nt
2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Ec on om ic T ren ds
Overview
1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports
6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
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OVERVIEW
The economic recovery has continued as industrial activities have been recovering from a slump in April and May while employment has been stabilizing. However, the pace of recovery is still slow. The economy added more jobs in July than it did in June, adding 505,000 jobs year-on-year.
index of leading indicators slightly picked up from the previous month, rising 0.1 points. Exports, which grew 5.4 percent year-on-year in July, dropped 0.1 percent in August due to fewer days worked and auto worker strikes.
Inflation in August remained stable in the 1 percent range and rose 1.4 percent year-on-year.
In August, the KOSPI declined somewhat, interest rates went down slightly, and the dollar-won and 100 yen-won ratios fell compared to the previous month.
Mining and manufacturing production, despite weak semiconductors & parts, increased 1.1 percent month-on-month in July, improving for two months in a row. Strong automobiles which had been positively affected by summer vacations planned in August, contributed to an increase in July.
Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices increased in August, rising 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.
Service output fell 0.4 percent in July, mainly due to increases in wholesale & retail and publishing & communications services, while retail sales continued to improve, led by semi-durable goods and nondurable goods sales, rising 0.3 percent. Facility investment increased significantly monthon-month in July from a fall of 1.2 percent to an increase of 3.5 percent as transportation equipment investment surged backed by aircraft imports. Construction completed fell from a 2.8 percent rise to a 1.4 percent decline due to weak building construction. The composite index of coincident indicators remained unchanged from July, and the composite
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3 The Green Book
k
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
The economy has continued to suffer from weak domestic demand as consumption and investment have yet to fully recover. The Korean government will continue to closely monitor internal and external economic trends as external risks remain, including political unrest in the Middle East and the US tapering its quantitative easing policy, and at the same time will work to protect domestic markets from possible external shocks. The government will also focus on boosting domestic demand by successfully implementing the regulatory reform plans and fostering promising service industries as well as continue to work on economic innovation.
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
1. External economic situation The global economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, led by the US. However, downside risk factors remain, such as the possibility of an early interest rate hike in the US and geopolitical risks arising from sanctions against Russia and the
4
US launching airstrikes in Iraq. Other uncertainties in the global economy include the property slump in China, deflation concerns in the eurozone and the possible failure of Abenomics, Japan's economic policies.
US
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
US economic growth in the second quarter of 2014 was revised up to 4.2 percent (annualized q-o-q) from the advanced estimate of 4.0 percent. Economic data on consumption and investment continued to improve.
The housing market recovery has slowed, with new home sales declining 2.4 percent monthon-month in July. However, home prices rose 1.0 percent in June. Case-Shiller Home Price Index (q-o-q, m-o-m, %)
Industrial production in July rose 0.4 percent monthon-month. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which forecasts business sentiment, posted 59.0 in August, the highest since March 2011. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 56.5 (Dec 2013) > 51.3 (Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb) > 53.7 (Mar) > 54.9 (Apr) > 55.4 (May) > 55.3 (Jun) > 57.1 (Jul) > 59.0 (Aug)
Consumption conditions have continued to improve. Although retail sales remained unchanged in June, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was 92.4 in August, the highest level since October 2007.
5.3 (Q3 2014) > 1.0 (Q4) -0.1 (Jan 2014) > 0.0 (Feb) > 0.9 (Mar) > 1.2 (Apr) > 1.2 (May) > 1.0 (Jun) New home sales (m-o-m, %) -1.1 (Nov 2013) > -0.7 (Dec) > 3.4 (Jan 2014) > -5.5 (Feb) > -6.7 (Mar) > 2.5 (Apr) > 9.9 (May) > -7.0 (Jun) > -2.4 (Jul)
Nonfarm payrolls were up 142,000 in August, rising at the slowest pace since the beginning of 2014. The unemployment rate inched down to 6.1 percent in line with the decrease in the labor force participation rate (62.9% > 62.8%) . Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands)
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)
84 (Dec 2013) > 144 (Jan 2014) > 222 (Feb) > 203 (Mar) >
77.5 (Dec 2013) > 79.4 (Jan 2014) > 78.3 (Feb) > 83.9 (Mar) >
304 (Apr) > 229 (May) > 267 (Jun) > 212 (Jul) > 142 (Aug)
81.7 (Apr) > 82.2 (May) > 86.4 (Jun) > 90.9 (Jul) > 92.4 (Aug) UniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndex(1966=100) 82.5 (Dec 2013) > 81.2 (Jan 2014) > 81.6 (Feb) > 80.0 (Mar) > 84.1 (Apr) > 81.9 (May) > 82.5 (Jun) > 81.8 (Jul) > 82.5 (Aug)
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Unemployment rate (m-o-m, %) 7.2 (Aug 2013) > 7.2 (Sep) > 7.2 (Oct) > 7.0 (Nov) > 6.7 (Dec) > 6.6 (Jan 2014) > 6.7 (Feb) > 6.7 (Mar) > 6.3 (Apr) > 6.3
(May) > 6.1 (Jun) > 6.2 (Jul) > 61 (Aug)
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US GDP growth and industrial production Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board 10 (%) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q)
5
US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor (thousands)
(%)
12
600 10 400 200
8
0 6 -200 -400
The Green Book
800
4
-600 2 -800 -1000
0
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)
2013.1
2014.1
Unemployment rate (right)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual Real GDP² - Personal consumption expenditure - Nonresidential fixed investment - Residential fixed investment Industrial production Retail sales Existing home sales Unemployment rate³ Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.3 1.8 7.2 13.5 3.8 5.1 8.9 8.1 2.1
2.2 2.4 3.0 11.9 2.9 4.2 8.9 7.4 1.5
Q1 2.7 3.6 1.5 7.8 1.0 1.5 0.7 7.7 1.7
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2014¹ Jul
1.8 1.8 1.6 19.0 0.5 0.3 3.5 7.5 1.4
4.5 2.0 5.5 11.2 0.6 1.0 4.4 7.2 1.5
3.5 3.7 10.4 -8.5 1.2 0.9 -7.1 7.0 1.2
-2.1 1.2 1.6 -5.3 1.0 0.2 -6.9 6.7 1.4
4.2 2.5 8.4 7.2 1.3 2.3 1.5 6.2 2.1
0.4 0.0 2.4 6.2 2.0
Aug 2.4 6.1 -
1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
China In China, economic data on production and consumption slowed in July, and the manufacturing PMI fell for the first time in six months. Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.5 (Jan 2014) > 50.2 (Feb) > 50.3 (Mar) > 50.4 (Apr) > 50.8 (May) > 51.0 (Jun) > 51.7 (Jul) > 51.1 (Aug)
6
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2011 2012¹ 2013¹ Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Real GDP
9.3
7.7
7.9
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014¹ Q2 Jun
7.8
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.7
7.4
7.5
9.7
9.5
9.1 10.1 10.0
8.7
8.9
Jul
-
-
9.2
9.0
Industrial production
13.9
10.0 10.0
Fixed asset investment (accumulated)
23.8
20.6 20.6
19.6 20.9 20.1 20.2 19.6 17.6 17.3
17.3 17.0
Retail sales
17.1
14.3 14.9
13.1 12.4 13.0 13.3 13.5 12.0 12.3
12.4 12.2
Exports
20.7
8.3
9.5
8.6 18.9
4.2
4.0
7.5 -4.7
5.0
7.2 14.5
Consumer prices²
5.4
2.6
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.8
2.9
2.2
2.3
Producer prices²
6.0
-1.7 -2.3
2.4
2.3
-1.9 -1.7 -2.7 -1.7 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5
2.3
-1.1 -0.9
1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 18
(%)
(%)
16
60
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
4
0 2004.Q1 2005.Q1
GDP (y-o-y, left)
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70
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
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Japan The Japanese economy contracted considerably in the second quarter of 2014 (down 1.7%, q-o-q) due to the sales tax hike, and indicators related to economic data on consumption and production remained sluggish in July. The consumer price index (CPI) rose at a slower pace in July (up 3.4%, m-o-m) , and the core CPI increased 3.3 percent.
(Percentage change from previous period)
2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2014¹ Q2 Jun
7
Jul
-0.5
1.4
0.0
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.2
0.2
1.6
-1.7
-
-
Industrial production
-2.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
1.3
0.6
2.8
-3.7
-3.4
0.2
Retail sales
-1.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
3.9
-7.0
0.4
-0.5
Exports (y-o-y)
-2.7
-2.8
-5.5
9.7
1.2
7.1
12.8
17.4
7.0
0.1
-2.0
3.9
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.3
0.9
1.4
1.5
2.8
3.6
2.3
The Green Book
Real GDP
1. Preliminary Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 6
(%)
(%)
4
25 20 15 10
2
5 0
0 -5
-2
-10 -15
-4
-20 -25
-6
-30
-8 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
Eurozone The eurozone economy slowed in the second quarter of 2014 (up 0.0%, q-o-q) , and inflation remains low, with consumer prices rising 0.3 percent year-on-year in August. In order to overcome deflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its benchmark interest rate (0.15% > 0.05%) and overnight deposit rate for banks (-0.1% > -0.2%) on September 4. In addition, the ECB announced plans to purchase asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds.
8
(Percentage change from previous period)
2012 Annual Annual
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2014¹ Jun
Jul
Aug
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Real GDP
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
Industrial production
-2.5
-0.7
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.3
-
-
Retail sales
-1.7
-0.9
0.0
0.1
0.5
-0.4
0.6
0.3
0.3
-0.4
-
Exports (y-o-y)
7.6
1.0
1.0
1.8
0.3
1.0
1.2
0.6
2.9
-
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
2.5
1.4
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
1. Preliminary Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat 3
(%)
(%)
10 8
2
6 4
1
2 0
0
-2 -1
-4 -6
-2
-8 -10
-3 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
GDP (q-o-q, left)
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2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
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2. Private consumption
Private consumption in the second quarter of 2014 (preliminary GDP) decreased 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter but rose 1.5 percent compared to a year ago.
(Percentage change from previous period)
Annual
Q1
2012 Q2
Private consumption²
1.9
0.8
0.2
1.2
0.4
2.0
(y-o-y)
-
1.7
0.7
2.6
2.7
-
2013¹ Q2
Q3
Q4
2014¹ Q1 Q2
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.2
-0.3
1.7
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.5
1.5
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 12
9
(%)
10
The Green Book
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Private consumption (q-o-q)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Private consumption (y-o-y)
Retail sales in July rose 0.3 percent compared to the previous month as gains in semi-durable (up 2.4%) and nondurable goods (up 0.7%) offset
declines in durable goods sales (down 2.1%). Compared to a year ago, retail sales rose 0.6 percent.
Retail sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15
(%)
10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
Retail sales (m-o-m)
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2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Retail sales (y-o-y)
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Retail sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50 40
(y-o-y, %)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Durable goods
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Nondurable goods
Semi-durable goods
(Percentage change from previous period)
10 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Retail sales (y-o-y) - Durable goods² · Automobiles - Semi-durable goods³ - Nondurable goods4
2012 Annual Q3 1.4 2.4 2.7 5.3 3.2 2.4 -4.4 -0.4 -0.1 2.0 1.3
Q4 -0.1 2.5 2.1 12.0 1.1 -1.8
Annual 0.8 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.6
Q1 -1.0 0.3 -4.1 -7.2 1.4 -0.6
2013 Q2 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.2 -0.4 1.3
Q3 0.8 0.7 -0.3 2.1 0.9 1.5
Q4 0.3 1.2 0.2 -2.1 -0.8 0.8
Q1 0.3 2.5 4.4 12.0 -1.5 -1.0
2014¹ Q2¹ Jun¹ -0.5 0.1 0.7 1.0 -1.1 2.6 4.6 3.0 -1.3 -1.5 0.2 -0.5
Jul¹ 0.3 0.6 -2.1 0.8 2.4 0.7
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc. Source: Statistics Korea
In August, sales of semi-durable goods will rise, but durable goods sales are expected to decline. Domestic sales of cars fell due to summer vacations and auto worker strikes, and cellphone service transfer sales declined due to the additional sales ban on mobile carriers. Cellphone service transfer sales (thousands, Korea Telecommunications Operators Association) 1,226 (Jan 2014) > 1,297 (Feb) > 592 (Mar) > 398 (Apr) > 890 (May) > 865 (Jun) > 644 (Jul) > 523 (Aug)
Sales at department stores and large discount stores increased year-on-year as Chuseok came earlier than usual. Credit card use continued to rise, while domestic sales of gasoline declined due to above-average precipitation levels. (y-o-y, %)
2014 Credit card use Department store sales Large discount store sales Domestic sales of gasoline Domestic sales of cars
Jan 9.1 6.8 18.6 -2.9 4.1
Feb 2.5 -2.4 -23.1 2.2 9.6
Mar 7.0 -1.1 -3.7 -0.2 0.9
Apr 5.2 -1.4 -4.1 -0.9 10.1
May 3.8 0.8 1.2 2.5 3.9
Jun 5.2 -4.6 -5.9 2.2 7.5
Jul 5.1 2.0 -4.6 0.6 0.7
Aug 8.6 11.7 3.1 -6.2 -4.8
Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for August data)
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3. Facility investment
Facility investment (preliminary GDP) rose 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter and 7.7 percent yearon-year in the second quarter of 2014.
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012 Annual Q4
Annual¹
Q1
2013¹ Q2
2014¹
1.5
1.0
2.7
5.6
-1.9
1.1
-12.7
-3.9
1.5
10.9
7.3
7.7
Q3
Q4
Q1¹
Q2¹
Facility investment²
0.1
-3.3
-1.5
(y-o-y)
-
-6.4
-
0.3
-5.3
-3.5
-2.6
4.4
6.5
3.7
-4.9
0.2
-0.4
1.8
4.0
11.3
-6.4
-6.5
10.7
5.5
3.1
- Machinery - Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
11 Facility investment 40
The Green Book
Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) (%)
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Facility investment (y-o-y)
The facility investment index in July rose 3.5 percent month-on-month as both machinery investment and transportation equipment investment increased. The index rose 3.0 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012 Annual Annual Facility investment index
Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
2014 Q4
Q1
Q2¹
Jun¹
Jul¹
-2.8
-1.3
-3.1
1.1
5.0
5.9
-5.2
2.2
-1.2
3.5
-
-
-13.1
-4.0
2.7
10.4
5.9
6.2
2.5
3.0
- Machinery
-2.7
-2.6
-3.5
2.9
4.5
7.3
-8.6
1.5
-2.4
0.9
- Transportation equipment
-3.0
2.3
-2.0
-4.0
6.4
2.5
4.7
3.4
2.1
9.0
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 60
(y-o-y, %)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
12
-40 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
Transportation equipment
2014.Q1
Machinery
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Facility investment is expected to slow down, due to declines in business sentiment and domestic machinery orders. Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 78 (Dec 2013) > 79 (Jan 2014) > 81 (Feb) > 85 (Mar) > 86 (Apr) > 86 (May) > 81 (Jun) >78 (Jul) > 75 (Aug) > 74 (Sep)
Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10
(trillion won)
(y-o-y, %)
9
60 50 40
8
30
7
20 10
6
0
5
-10 -20
4
-30
3
-40 -50
2 2004.Q1 2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Machinery orders (left)
EB 9월호 내지.indd 12
70
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Machinery imports (right)
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2012 Annual Annual Domestic machinery orders
-13.9
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
6.7
-
-
-Public
-11.0
20.6
-Private
Q1 -11.4
2013 Q2 8.8
6.8
3.9
-47.0
94.2
Q3
2014¹ Q2¹ Jun¹
Q4
Q1
2.2
32.4
17.9
-6.9
27.7
-2.8
-9.6
3.3
0.6
-9.7 129.7 184.6
-45.0
-56.7
-75.4 11.3
4.4
Jul¹
5.6
-4.8
-14.2
5.2
-6.1
4.0
3.8
22.1
4.1
9.6
13.5
Machinery imports
-3.0
6.5
-11.8
-2.1
6.8
13.2
2.3
11.2
7.0
8.7
Average manufacturing operation ratio
78.5
76.2
77.3
75.9
75.1
76.6
77.2
76.3
76.4
78.0
Facility investment adjustment pressure²
-0.7
-1.4
-2.6
-1.6
-1.7
0.1
-0.6
-0.9
-0.8
2.2
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
13 Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2014 rose 0.4 percent quarteron-quarter and 0.2 percent year-on-year.
(Percentage change from previous quarter)
2012¹ Annual Q4 Construction investment²
Annual
Q1
2013¹ Q2
2014¹ Q3
Q4
Q1¹
Q2¹
-3.9
-2.4
6.7
6.5
4.6
0.2
-5.2
5.1
0.4
-
-6.2
-
1.9
9.8
8.8
5.4
4.3
0.2
- Building construction
-1.6
-1.6
8.8
5.4
7.2
0.5
-4.0
5.1
2.3
- Civil engineering works
-7.1
-3.6
3.7
8.1
1.0
-0.1
-6.9
5.1
-2.5
(y-o-y)
The Green Book
4. Construction investment
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 15
(%)
10
5
0
-5
-10 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
Construction investment (q-o-q)
EB 9월호 내지.indd 13
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Construction investment (y-o-y)
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends The value of construction completed (constant) in July declined 1.4 percent month-on-month as declines in building construction offset gains in civil engineering works. The index fell 0.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works
2012 Annual Annual -5.0 10.1 -6.6 14.8 -3.0 4.3
2013 Q2 6.3 15.0 7.7 4.6
Q1 3.5 4.4 5.6 1.0
Q3 -0.1 10.5 0.4 -0.9
Q4 -0.7 9.7 2.9 -5.5
2014¹ Q2¹ Jun¹ 0.3 2.8 0.1 -1.4 2.9 1.7 -4.0 4.7
Q1 1.5 6.5 6.0 -5.0
Jul¹ -1.4 -0.6 -3.2 1.7
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)
14
40
(y-o-y, %)
30 20
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1
2005.Q1
2006.Q1
2007.Q1
2008.Q1
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
Residential buildings
Building construction
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
Civil engineering works
The construction investment outlook is mixed, as construction orders and the building permit area have been rising since the fourth quarter of 2013, while unsold houses have also been increasing. Unsold houses (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 64 (Oct 2013) > 64 (Nov) > 61 (Dec) > 59 (Jan 2014) > 52 (Feb) > 48 (Mar) > 46 (Apr) > 49 (May) > 50 (Jun) > 51 (Jul) New apartment supplies (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 50 (Oct 2013) > 44 (Nov) > 12 (Dec) > 6 (Jan 2014) > 11 (Feb) > 24 (Mar) > 39 (Apr) > 39 (May) > 29 (Jun) > 18 (Jul) > 18 (Aug) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area
2012 Annual -6.2 -4.7 -9.1 -0.5
Annual -15.3 -13.4 -19.2 -7.3
Q1 -40.8 -2.2 -34.0 -50.4 -12.4
2013 Q2 -29.5 0.3 -29.6 -29.4 -14.6
Q3 -10.6 16.8 -10.8 -10.0 -3.4
Q4 22.4 2.9 17.9 33.4 -0.2
Q1 15.5 -1.4 10.7 24.4 18.4
2014¹ Q2¹ Jun¹ 24.6 24.7 9.4 6.4 44.6 25.1 -11.2 23.2 21.6 24.3
Jul¹ 21.5 7.8 21.5 21.4 9.0
1. Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
EB 9월호 내지.indd 14
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 340
(y-o-y, %)
290 240 190 140 90 40 -10 -60 -110 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Construction orders
2014.1
Building permit area
Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 8.7 (mobile phones), 9.5 (steel), 6.7 (petroleum products), 5.1 (semiconductors), 7.5 (vessels), -16.9 (automobiles)
Exports in August decreased 0.1 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $46.28 billion.
The Green Book
5. Exports and Imports
15
Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 7.1 (US), 9.7 (EU), -8.0 (Japan), -4.9 (ASEAN countries),
Exports fell due to fewer days worked (down 1 day) , auto worker strikes, summer vacations in the auto industry and a decline in shipments to China.
-3.8 (China)
Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was up 4.4 percent year-on-year, posting US $2.06 billion in August.
Shipments of most export items, such as mobile phones and semiconductors, increased, but automobile exports declined sharply. By region, exports to the US and EU rose but exports to China, Japan and the ASEAN countries fell.
Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 8.8 (Jan 2014) > -3.3 (Feb) > 1.5 (Mar) > 9.0 (Apr) > 5.9 (May) > 4.9 (Jun) > 5.4 (Jul) > 4.4 (Aug) (US $ billion)
2013 Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports
2014
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug¹
559.63
135.32
141.16
136.79
146.37
46.31
137.59
145.75
48.29
46.28
2.1
0.3
0.7
2.8
4.7
7.6
1.7
3.3
5.4
-0.1
2.05
2.02
2.06
2.00
2.11
1.97
2.07
2.19
1.93
2.06
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
EB 9월호 내지.indd 15
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Exports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 140 120
(y-o-y, %)
100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Export growth rate
16
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
Semiconductors
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Automobiles
Steel
Imports in August rose 3.1 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $42.87 billion.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Although capital goods imports declined, imports of commodities rose due to an increase in supply, and consumer goods surged, led by automobiles and clothes. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) 6.0 (commodities), -8.5 (capital goods), 16.5 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)
2013 Imports
2014
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug¹
515.58
129.73
126.76
126.03
133.06
41.59
132.38
130.76
45.90
42.87
(y-o-y, %)
-0.8
-2.9
-2.8
0.3
2.5
1.2
2.0
3.2
5.8
3.1
Average daily imports
1.89
1.94
1.85
1.84
1.91
1.77
1.99
1.97
1.84
1.91
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 80
(y-o-y, %)
60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1
2005.1
Import growth rate
EB 9월호 내지.indd 16
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Commodities
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital goods
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Exports and imports Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 70
(US $ billion)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Trade balance
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Exports
Imports
(US $ billion)
2013 Trade balance
2014
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Aug
Q1
Q2
Jul
Aug¹
44.05
5.59
14.40
10.76
13.30
4.72
5.21
14.98
2.40
3.41
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
The Green Book
The trade balance (preliminary) in August remained in the black for the 31th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US $3.41 billion.
17
6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production increased 1.2 percent month-on-month in July, as gains in automobiles and refined petroleum offset declines in semiconductors & parts and electrical equipment. Compared to the same period in the previous year, the index was up 3.5 percent. Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (up 10.7%), refined petroleum (up 7.5%) and other transportation equipment (up 4.3%) rose, while semiconductors & parts (down 4.9%) , electrical equipment (down 4.8%) and
EB 9월호 내지.indd 17
petroleum products (down 1.2%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of automobiles (up 20.3%) , processed metals (up 8.4%) and primary metals (up 4.4%) rose, while audio-visual communications equipment (down 4.2%) and other transportation equipment (down 3.0%) declined. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 3.4 percentage points month-on-month to 122.8 percent as inventories rose 2.8 percent and shipments fell 0.1 percent.
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50 (%) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1
18
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Industrial production (y-o-y)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
(Percentage change from previous period)
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jun
Q1
2014¹ Q2¹ Jun¹
-0.9
1.9
-0.6
0.3
-1.0
Jul¹
Annual
Q1
Mining production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-0.5
(y-o-y)
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.2
1.7
1.4
0.7
0.3
0.4
3.4
Manufacturing production (q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-0.4
-1.0
0.0
2.1
-0.6
0.4
-1.1
2.7
1.2
0.3
-0.8
0.0
0.1
1.8
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.2
3.5
0.4
-0.3
-0.6
-0.1
1.7
-1.2
-0.1
-0.6
-2.0
-0.1
-1.4
-1.7
-1.1
1.6
1.7
0.1
0.0
-0.3
-2.5
1.1
2.3
1.6
-0.2
-2.0
1.6
-2.8
-0.1
-0.8
1.9
-1.4
5.7
2.4
3.2
-0.5
0.1
0.6
2.8
Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic demand - Exports
0.1
2.6
1.1
Inventory³
5.0
-0.6
-2.1
Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity4
76.2
77.3
75.9 75.1 76.5 74.8 77.2 76.3 76.4 78.0
1.7
1.8
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry
3. End-period
4. Percentage change from same period in previous year
1.6
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.3
Source: Statistics Korea
Inventories of automobiles (up 15.6%) and primary metals (up 5.2%) rose, while petroleum products (down 3.8%) and nonmetallic minerals (down 10.4%) declined. Shipments of automobiles (up 13.1%) and mechanical equipment (up 2.3%) rose, while semiconductors & parts (down 2.2%) and primary metals (down 1.6%) fell. The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector rose 1.6 percentage points month-on-month to 78.0 percent.
EB 9월호 내지.indd 18
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Shipment and inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 10 8
(m-o-m, %)
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Shipment growth
2014.1
Inventory growth
19
Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
The Green Book
100 90 80 70 60 50 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Mining and manufacturing production may have slowed in August, due to summer vacations, fewer days worked and auto worker strikes.
7. Service sector activity Service output in July declined 0.4 percent month-on-month, led by wholesale & retail, publishing & communications services and financial & insurance services. Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 2.7 percent. Wholesale & retail (down 1.6%, m-o-m), publishing & communications services (down 3.6%, m-o-m), financial & insurance services (down 1.4%, m-o-m) and professional, scientific & technical services (down 2.9%, m-o-m) fell after rising for the last two months. Hotels & restaurants (up 3.8%, m-o-m) and entertainment, cultural & sports services (up 5.0%, m-o-m) remained robust.
EB 9월호 내지.indd 19
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Service output is likely to improve in August, as sales at department stores and large discount stores recovered, stock transactions increased and box office ticket sales rose. Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 5.5 (Jan 2014) > 5.4 (Feb) > 5.6 (Mar) > 5.6 (Apr) > 5.5 (May) > 5.4 (Jun) > 6.0 (Jul) > 6.3 (Aug) Box office ticket sales (billion won) 170 (Jan 2014) > 140 (Feb) > 100 (Mar) > 70 (Apr) > 130 (May) > 130 (Jun) > 160 (Jul) > 250 (Aug)
Service sector activity Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 20
(%)
15
20
10 5
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
0 -5 -10 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2013.1
2014.1
Service sector activity (y-o-y)
(Percentage change from previous period)
Weight
2012 2013 Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2
Q4
Q1
2014¹ Q2¹ Jun¹
0.2
0.9
0.5
0.0
1.7 -0.4
Jul¹
Service activity index
100.0
1.6
0.1
1.4
0.2
- Wholesale & retail
21.6
0.8
0.3 -0.2
-0.8
0.1 -0.1
0.6
0.1 -0.4
0.8 -1.6
- Transportation services
8.5
1.2
-0.1
1.1
0.7
0.1 -1.0
0.6
- Hotels & restaurants
7.2 -1.2
-2.4
0.4
0.1
0.6
- Publishing & communications services
8.4
3.0
-0.3
1.9
0.6 -1.0
14.7
- Financial & insurance services
0.4
Q3
1.1 -0.3
0.9
0.7
2.7 -0.9 -1.6 -2.2
3.3
3.8
0.9
3.4 -2.0
0.8
4.7 -3.6
2.8
1.0
0.5
-0.1 -1.1 -0.5
0.6
2.7
1.3
2.6 -1.4
- Real estate & renting
5.3 -4.8
0.7
2.5
-2.2
7.4 -3.6
3.6 -3.2
7.6
0.0 -3.0
- Professional, scientific & technical services
5.6
3.7
-0.2
3.3
0.2
4.9 -2.9
0.7
0.4
2.8
4.3 -2.9
- Business services
3.3
3.5
0.2
2.2
1.6 -0.4
1.6
0.4
1.6 -0.5 -0.4
0.4
- Education services
10.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8 -1.0
1.2
0.7
1.1 -2.2
0.2
1.4
- Healthcare & social welfare services
7.5
6.7
0.7
5.0
0.8
1.1
2.5
1.6
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.2
- Entertainment, cultural & sports services
2.9
2.8
-3.0 -0.5
1.7
0.6
- Membership organizations & personal services
3.6 -1.4
- Sewerage & waste management
0.6 -0.6
0.0
5.3
-4.3 -0.4
0.2 -0.2
1.4 -6.8
2.2
5.0
3.1 -0.7
3.5
0.2
0.1 -3.4 -1.9
8.5
0.5
0.9
1.2
0.2 -1.4
2.1
0.6
6.0
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
EB 9월호 내지.indd 20
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
July 2014 service output by business Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 12
(y-o-y, %)
10
Financial & insurance services
8 6
Professional, scientific & technical services
Hotels & restaurants
4
Entertainment, cultural & sports services Education services
Wholesale & retail
2
Sewerage & waste management
0 Total index
-2
Transportation services
-4
Publishing & communications services
Real estate & renting
Business services
Health & social welfare services
Membership organizations & personal services
-6 -8 -10 -12
21
The number of workers on payroll in July increased by 505,000 from a year earlier to 25,980,000 and the employment rate rose 0.7 percentage points to 61.1 percent. By industry, employment grew faster in services and manufacturing.
The Green Book
8. Employment
By employment status, the number of regular workers continued to increase, while nonwage workers, such as the self-employed, decreased.
Number of persons employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 1,000
(thousands)
(millions)
27 26
1,000
26 800
25 25
600
24
400
24
200
23 23
0
22 -200
22
-400
21
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
EB 9월호 내지.indd 21
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 62
(%)
61 60 59 58 57 56
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Original data
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
22 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Number of employed (millions)
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
2014 Q2 Jun Jul
23.83 24.24 24.68 24.80 25.07 24.18 25.33 25.41 25.35 25.47 24.91 25.79 25.88 25.98
Employment rate (%)
58.7 59.1 59.4 59.4 59.5 57.7 60.2 60.3 60.0 60.4 58.8 60.8 60.9 61.1
(Seasonally adjusted)
58.7 59.1 59.4 59.2 59.5 59.2 59.4 59.7 59.9 59.5 60.4 59.9 59.8 60.1
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
323 415 437 342 386 257 324 421 541 367 729 464 398
505
(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)
405 440 451 344 394 266 351 402 556 364 717 518 474
616
- Manufacturing
191
63
14 140
191
33
-2
22 -40
- Construction
79 119 122
53 123 136 165
4
-9
11
57
- Services
200 386 416 236 318 199 212 354 507 283 570 387 304
388
- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
-82
- Wage workers
517 427 315 303 483 329 472 526 604 503 711 485 430
532
· Regular workers
697 575 436 469 615 554 638 632 637 661 606 478 462
351
-34
· Temporary workers
-2
-9 -27
19 -15
78
235
-37 -73
3 -42 -35 -61
31 -111 -110
-54
- Nonwage workers
-194
-11 121
39
-97 -71 -148 -105 -63 -136
19 -22 -32
-27
· Self-employed workers
-118
1 124
33
-67 -28 -104 -83 -54 -113
-7 -14
-7
-17
- Male
181 238 234 172 186 123 179 179 262 166 373 228 195
287
- Female
142 177 203 170 200 135 145 242 279 202 357 236 203
218
- 15 to 29
-43
-35
-36 -80
-50 -117 -88 -41
42
107
- 30 to 39
-4
-47
-31 -10
-21 -15
-6 -42 -25
16
29
57
- 60 or more
-3
22
12
2 -98
12 -54 -76 -111
-70 -120 -57
11
-96 -152 -169 -65
3
12
-146
- 50 to 59
-2 -109
-8
27
· Daily workers
- 40 to 49
-78
-14
-6
49
23
-25
-19 -64
26
46 -102
8 -34 -42 -49 -6
30
53
31
74 118
97
99
53
13
0
294 291 270 220 254 196 254 279 285 285 323 227 181
34
203
47 149 222 215 181 181 156 187 200 201 218 192 187
179
Source: Statistics Korea
EB 9월호 내지.indd 22
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Employment by industry Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 80 71.0 70.8 70.3 69.7 69.2 69.1 69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6
60 40
7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1
20
17.0 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 4.4 4.7 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2
0
2012.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Services
9 10
11 12 2013.1 2 3
4
Construction
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 2014.1 2
Manufacturing
3
4
5
6
7
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 80
23.1 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1
20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1
40 20
45.4 45.4 44.9 44.3 44.0 44.4 44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8
0 2012.1 2
3
4
5
6
Unpaid family workers
7
8
9
10
11 12 2013.1 2
Self-employed workers
3
4
5
6
Daily workers
7
8
9
10
11 12 2014.1 2
Temporary workers
3
4
5
6
7
The Green Book
6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 60
23
Regular workers
The number of unemployed persons in July increased by 84,000 year-on-year to 910,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 3.4 percent. The unemployment rate rose in all age groups.
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 6 (%)
5
4
3
2 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 9월호 내지.indd 23
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends 2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jul Number of unemployed (thousands)
24
Q1
2014 Q2 Jun Jul
920
855
820
722 807
907 812 777 733 828 1,031 977 949 912
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
31
-65
-35
-18 -13
-40 -29
7
11
33
- Male
-7
-48
-26
-13
-6
-7 -20
11
-7
28
- Female
38
-17
-9
-6
-7
-4
18
4
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.8 3.1
3.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.1
4.0 3.7 3.5 3.4
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.7
3.4
3.2
3.0 3.1
3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2
3.5 3.7 3.6 3.4
-15 to 29
8.0
7.6
7.5
7.0 8.0
8.4 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.3
9.8 9.4 9.5 8.9
- 30 to 39
3.5
3.4
3.0
2.7 3.0
3.3 3.0 2.9 2.6 3.0
3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2
- 40 to 49
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.8 2.0
2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.1
2.3 2.4 2.1 2.2
-33
-9
125 165 136 40
84
62
42
-3
84 103
95
87
- 50 to 59
2.5
2.1
2.1
1.8 1.9
2.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1
- 60 or more
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.6 1.8
3.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2
4.4 1.9 1.7 1.6
Source: Statistics Korea
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The economically inactive population in July was down 206,000 from a year earlier to 15,640,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 0.8 percentage points to 63.2 percent. The number of those economically inactive due to old age (up 94,000, y-o-y) and disabilities (up 21,000, y-o-y) increased, while those due to education (down 111,000, y-o-y), rest (down 71,000, y-o-y) , and childcare (down 56,000, y-o-y) decreased.
Labor force participation rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 65
(%)
64 63 62 61 60 59 58 2004.1
2005.1
Original data
EB 9월호 내지.indd 24
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Seasonally adjusted rate
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
2013 Q2 Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
2014 Q2 Jun Jul
Economically inactive population (millions) 15.84 15.95 16.08 16.26 16.22 16.83 15.91 15.98 16.17 15.84 16.40 15.69 15.67 15.64 Labor force participation rate (%)
61.0 61.1 61.3 61.1 61.5 59.9 62.2 62.1 61.7 62.4 61.3 63.1 63.1 63.2
(Seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
61.0 61.1 61.3 61.1 61.5 61.2 61.3 61.6 61.7 61.5 62.6 62.2 62.1 62.3 143
112
- Childcare
-125
-5
- Housework
201
101
123 126
-3 143
- Education
12
-51
-12
77 118 147
88 -44 152 -76 -68 -117 -111
- Old age
80
-45
148 186
54 154
7
32
21
-56
182
-53 -125
-7 -106
44
12
21 -19 -197 -90
- Rest
128 244 -2
-3
39
141 336 242 1
0
10
78 -91 116 -433 -226 -141 -206 9 -14
24 -29 -57 -59
-56
36 -80 -112 -83 -230 -127 -64
-47
22
81 113 113 -1
94 -71
Source: Statistics Korea
25 The Green Book
9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI in August fell 7.6 points to 2,069 points from 2,076 points in the previous month. The KOSPI fell earlier in the month due to increasing concerns over Ukraine and Iraq, but later gained some ground as concerns over an early interest rate hike in the US eased.
Stock prices 2,200 2,000
(monthly average)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 2004.1
KOSPI
EB 9월호 내지.indd 25
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
KOSDAQ
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends (Closing rate)
Jul 2014
KOSPI Aug 2014
Change¹
Stock price index (points)
2,076.1
2,068.5
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1,242.4
Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
Jul 2014
KOSDAQ Aug 2014
Change¹
-7.6 (-0.4%)
536.3
570.2
33.9 (6.3%)
1,238.9
-3.5 (-0.3%)
130.6
139.2
8.6 (6.6%)
4.0
4.1
0.1 (2.5%)
2.0
2.2
0.2 (10.0%)
35.9
35.5
-0.4 (-1.1%)
10.7
11.0
0.3 (2.8%)
1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate 26 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The dollar-won exchange rate in August fell 13.9 won to 1,014.0 won from 1,027.9 won at the end of July. Despite the Bank of Korea’s decision to cut its benchmark interest rate (2.50% > 2.25%), as well as talks over an early interest rate hike in the US, the dollar-won exchange rate declined due to inflows of portfolio investment funds. The 100 yen-won exchange rate declined from 1,000.6 won in July to 976.7 won in August, as the yen remained weak due to diverging monetary policies between the US and Japan.
(Closing rate)
2008 Dec
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
Jul
2014 Aug
Change¹
Dollar-Won
1,259.5
1,164.5
1,134.8
1,151.8
1,070.6
1,055.4
1,027.9
1,014.0
4.1
100 Yen-Won
1,396.8
1,264.5
1,393.6
1,481.2
1,238.3
1,002.3
1,000.6
976.7
2.6
1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.
Foreign exchange rates 1,800
(month-end, \)
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1
2005.1
Dollar-Won
EB 9월호 내지.indd 26
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
100 Yen-Won
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Daily foreign exchange rate trend 1,800
(\)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000 800 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dollar-Won
100 Yen-Won
27
9.3 Bond market
Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea 10
(monthly average, yearly, %)
The Green Book
3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 2.52 percent in July to 2.51 percent in August. Treasury bond yields, which had been rising due to diminishing expectations for additional interest rate cuts, inched down as longterm interest rates in major countries fell.
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Overnight call rate (daily)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
3-yr Treasury bond yield
2013.1
2014.1
3-yr corporate bond yield
(Closing rate, %)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
May
Jun
2014 Jul
Aug
Change¹
Call rate (1 day)
2.01
2.51
3.29
2.77
2.52
2.49
2.49
2.49
2.24
-25
CD (91 days)
2.88
2.80
3.55
2.89
2.66
2.65
2.65
2.65
2.40
-25
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
4.44
3.38
3.34
2.82
2.86
2.82
2.68
2.52
2.51
-1
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
5.56
4.27
4.21
3.29
3.29
3.24
3.10
2.92
2.88
-4
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
4.98
4.08
3.46
2.97
3.23
3.04
2.88
2.76
2.74
-2
1. Basis point, changes from the previous month
EB 9월호 내지.indd 27
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
9.4 Money supply & money market
M2 (monthly average) in June rose 6.1 percent from a year earlier. Money supply in the government sector fell as loans to the public sector declined, but money supply in the overseas sector rose due to inflows of portfolio investment funds.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
28
2009 Annual
2010 Annual
2011 Annual
2012 Annual
2013 Annual
Apr
May
2014 Jun
Jun¹
M1²
16.3
11.8
6.6
3.8
9.5
9.1
10.0
9.3
532.0
M2
10.3
8.7
4.2
5.2
4.8
5.5
6.0
6.1
1,999.4
Lf ³
7.9
8.2
5.3
7.8
6.9
6.2
6.6
6.7
2,703.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
1. Balance at end June 2014, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)
Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40
(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
Reserve money
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
M1
2010.1
Lf
Bank deposits fell sharply in July, led by instant access deposits (10.7 trillion won > -10.9 trillion won) , as corporations withdrew funds for value-added tax payments. Asset management company (AMC) deposits surged, led by money market funds (MMF) (-4.0 trillion won > 6.5 trillion won) , due to the inflow of the funds that had been withdrawn the previous month to raise banks’ BIS ratios at the end of the first half.
EB 9월호 내지.indd 28
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)
2009 Dec
2010 Dec
2011 Dec
2012 Dec
2013 Dec
Apr
May
2014 Jun
Jul
Jun¹
Bank deposits
54.8
36.9
58.9
37.0
41.0
-3.3
13.9
9.3
-8.8
1,198.8
AMC deposits
-27.6
-16.7
-16.6
18.8
17.7
-3.1
6.0
-1.1
11.5
357.8
1. Balance at end June 2014, trillion won
Deposits in financial institutions Source: The Bank of Korea
30
(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)
20
29 10
-10
-20 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
10. Balance of payments
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The Green Book
0
Korea’s current account (preliminary) in July posted a surplus of US $7.91 billion, staying in the black for 29 consecutive months. The goods account surplus expanded from US $6.65 billion in June to US $6.86 billion in July, as export growth exceeded import growth. Goods exports (US $ billion) 50.28 (Jun 2014) > 53.89 (Jul) Goods imports (US $ billion)
43.63 (Jun 2014) > 47.03 (Jul)
EB 9월호 내지.indd 29
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends U S $0.58 billion to US $0.01 billion due to improvements in the construction and intellectual property rights accounts.
Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus contracted by US $1.05 billion as import growth exceeded export growth due to a rise in consumer goods imports.
Services account (US $ billion, June > July) Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)
-0.51 > -0.54 (manufacturing), 0.52 > 0.26 (transportation),
5.8 (total), 4.5 (commodities), 4.0 (capital goods), 17.0
-0.48 > -0.55 (travel), 1.33 > 1.61 (construction), -0.59 >
(consumer goods)
-0.02 (intellectual property rights), -0.78 > -0.94 (other businesses)
Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 5.4 (total), 24.6 (mobile phones), 22.4 (steel), 20.8
The primary income account surplus contracted from US $2.23 billion to US $1.49 billion due to a decrease in dividend income, while the secondary income account deficit expanded from US $0.38 billion to US $0.43 billion.
(automobiles), 12.4 (petroleum products), 1.0 (semiconductors), -13.7 (vessels)
30
The services account deficit contracted from
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends) 12 10
(US $ billion)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Services account
Goods account
2014.1
Current account
(US $ billion)
2013¹
2014¹ Jun
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Jul
Q1
Q2
Current account
79.88
10.46
20.80
23.78
24.84
7.99
15.07
24.13
7.92
Jul 7.91
- Goods balance
80.57
12.08
20.00
23.88
24.62
7.91
17.75
26.42
6.65
6.86
- Service balance
-7.93
-3.51
-0.41
-2.06
-1.94
-1.06
-3.62
-1.95
-0.58
-0.01
- Primary income balance
11.42
2.78
1.84
3.16
3.64
1.40
1.91
1.33
2.23
1.49
- Secondary income balance
-4.18
-0.89
-0.62
-1.19
-1.48
-0.26
-0.96
-1.68
-0.38
-0.43
1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
EB 9월호 내지.indd 30
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in July posted a net outflow of US $5.93 billion. Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion) -4.48 (Jan 2014) > -6.92 (Feb) > -5.78 (Mar) > -6.24 (Apr) > -8.13 (May) > -9.84 (Jun) > -5.93 (Jul)
Net outflows of direct investment contracted from US $2.06 billion to US $1.01 billion as overseas direct investment declined. Net outflows of portfolio investment contracted from US $4.22 billion to US $1.74 billion as foreign
investors’ equity investment increased. Net inflows of financial derivatives investment contracted from US $0.69 billion to US $0.50 billion, while other investment switched to a net outflow of US $0.34 billion from a net inflow of US $0.28 billion as financial institutions increased loans. The current account in August is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by the surplus in the goods account, which resulted from a trade surplus (US $3.41 billion).
31
Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
The Green Book
15
(US $ billion)
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
Direct investment
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
Portfolio investment
11. Prices and international commodity prices
EB 9월호 내지.indd 31
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Financial derivatives
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Capital & financial account
11.1 Prices Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent month-onmonth in August, up from 0.1 percent in July. Compared to the same month of the previous year, consumer prices rose 1.4 percent, down from 1.6 percent in July.
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Consumer price inflation
(%)
Aug
Sep
2013 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Month-on-Month
0.4
0.2
-0.3
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
Year-on-Year
1.5
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.4
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 7 (%) 6 5
32
4 3
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2 1 0 -1 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices rose 1.5 percent month-on-month (agricultural products up 3.9%, livestock products down 1.5%, fishery products down 0.1%) . Vegetable prices rose due to unfavorable weather conditions, while the prices of other items stabilized. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) spinaches (73.6), lettuces (50.4), Chinese cabbages (32.9), pork (-5.2), mackerel (-4.6)
Manufactured product prices fell 0.1 percent from the previous month. Processed food prices rose 0.1 percent, while petroleum product prices fell 0.9
EB 9월호 내지.indd 32
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)
percent due to stabilizing international oil prices. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) cereals (6.8), televisions (-2.2), imported cars (-2.0), gasoline (-0.7)
Personal service prices rose 0.3 percent month-onmonth, as travel service prices rose due to summer holidays. Dining out expenses rose 0.1 percent, and personal service prices excluding dining out costs were up 0.5 percent. Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) domestic group tour expenses (11.3), overseas group tour expenses (6.0), condominium fees (8.6)
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 5
(%p)
4 3 2 1 0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
Manufactured products
Housing rents
Public services
Personal services
Public utilities
33 the previous month, fresh food prices rose 4.2 percent. Fresh food price increases (y-o-y, %)
Price increases for basic necessities (y-o-y, %) 0.6 (Jan 2014) > 0.4 (Feb) > 0.8 (Mar) > 1.0 (Apr) > 1.4 (May) > 1.4 (Jun) > 1.4 (Jul) > 0.8 (Aug)
Fresh food prices declined 11.8 percent year-onyear, led by vegetables (down 19.1%) . Compared to
-12.9 (Jan 2014) > -12.4 (Feb) > -11.3 (Mar) > -12.0 (Apr) > -9.2 (May) > -7.7 (Jun) > -8.3 (Jul) > -11.8 (Aug)
The Green Book
Consumer prices for basic necessities rose 0.8 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent month-onmonth.
Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 2.4 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent month-on-month.
Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 16
(y-o-y, %)
13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Consumer price inflation
EB 9월호 내지.indd 33
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
Core inflation
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Producer price inflation
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Core inflation and prices for basic necessities
(y-o-y, %)
2013 2014 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2
2.4
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9
2.1
Consumer prices for basic necessities
1.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4
0.8
Source: Statistics Korea
The expected annual inflation was unchanged at 2.8 percent, while import prices fell 8.5 percent year-on-year. Expected inflation (%, over the next 12 months) 2.9 (Dec 2013) > 2.9 (Jan 2014) > 2.9 (Feb) > 2.8 (Mar) > 2.9 (Apr) > 2.8 (May) > 2.8 (Jun) > 2.8 (Jul) > 2.8 (Aug)
34
Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -3.5 (Dec 2013) > -3.0 (Jan 2014) > -4.8 (Feb) > -4.5 (Mar) > -7.0 (Apr) > -6.8 (May) > -8.8 (Jun) > -8.5 (Aug)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
International oil prices declined in August as risk premiums associated with tensions in Iraq fell. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Dubai crude prices continued to fall due to stable global supply and declining seasonal demand. Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 104.9 (Aug 1) > 103.9 (Aug 8) > 101.0 (Aug 15) > 100.5 (Aug 22) > 100.2 (Aug 25) > 100.5 (Aug 29)
(US $/barrel, period average)
2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Dubai crude
105.9
109.0
105.3
107.9 105.6 105.5 107.5 104.0 105.0 104.4 104.6 105.6 107.9 106.1 101.9
Brent crude
111.0
111.7
108.7
111.6 109.3 108.0 110.7 107.7 108.9 107.7 107.8 109.4 111.8 107.4 102.6
95.1
93.8
98.0
WTI crude
106.2 100.5
94.0
97.9
94.9 100.7 100.5 102.0 101.8 105.2 102.6
96.3
Source: Korea PDS
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14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai crude
WTI
35
Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,850.0 (1st week Aug) > 1,846.1 (2nd week) > 1,841.3 (3rd week) > 1,833.7 (4th week) (Won/liter, period average)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Sep
2013 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr May
Jun
Jul
Aug
The Green Book
Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall, as stabilizing domestic oil prices and the strong won were reflected with a time lag.
Gasoline prices 1,929.3 1,985.8 1,924.5 1,934.6 1,907.3 1,880.0 1,881.1 1,886.4 1,880.7 1,880.8 1,875.9 1,869.5 1,861.7 1,856.7 1,842.0 Diesel prices 1,745.7 1,806.3 1,729.6 1,734.3 1,711.8 1,692.9 1,699.1 1,705.1 1,698.5 1,696.0 1,688.9 1,680.9 1,670.8 1,661.8 1,644.5 Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160
($/B)
(thousand won/B)
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)
EB 9월호 내지.indd 35
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Dubai international prices (dollar, right)
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends International grain prices declined due to increased production in major production areas and optimistic estimates as to global production and inventories. International grain price increases in August (m-o-m, %) wheat (0.8), soybeans (-3.8), corn (-5.3)
Aluminum, lead and zinc prices rose due to tight supply*, while tin and copper prices fell as demand was expected to slow down due to the sluggish real estate market in China. Nonferrous metal price increases in August (m-o-m, %) aluminum (4.4), lead (2.2), zinc (0.8), tin (-0.4), copper (-1.5), nickel (-2.5) * Aluminum: Major smelting factories in the US cut production, while demand from car manufacturers has been rising. Zinc: Major mines in Australia are due to close, and production growth in China slowed.
36 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Reuters index*
(Period average)
2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual 3,062
3,006
2,774
Sep
2013 Oct
2,630
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr May
Jun
Jul
2,655 2,623 2,642 2,574 2,586 2,641 2,650 2,608 2,569 2,548
Aug 2,510
* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
International commodity prices Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry. 470
4000
430 390
3000
350 310
2000
270 230
1000
190 150
0
2004.1
2005.1
CRB (left)
EB 9월호 내지.indd 36
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Reuters index (right)
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Nationwide apartment sales prices in August rose 0.1 percent month-on-month.
(up 0.1%) . Prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.1 percent. Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.1 percent. Apartment sales price increase in five metropolitan cities
Apartment sales prices rose in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.1%), which includes Seoul (up 0.0%), Incheon (up 0.1%) and Gyeonggi Province
(m-o-m, %) Busan (0.1), Daegu (0.3), Gwangju (0.1), Daejeon (0.1), Ulsan (0.3)
Nationwide apartment sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.9
6.9
0.0
0.3
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
Seoul metropolitan area
-1.7
0.5
-3.0
-1.1
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
Seoul
-1.2
0.3
-2.9
-1.4
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
Gangnam¹
-1.0
0.3
-3.5
-1.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
Gangbuk²
-1.4
0.3
-2.3
-1.7
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.1
6.4
15.1
3.1
1.7
1.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
7
2012.1
2014.1
7
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
The Green Book
Nationwide
Jan
37
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment sales prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0
(m-o-m, %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0 2009.1
Nationwide
EB 9월호 내지.indd 37
7
2010.1
7
2011.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Nationwide apartment rental prices in August rose 0.2 percent month-on-month. Rental prices rose 0.2 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, and were up 0.1 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.1), Seocho (0.2), Songpa (0.0), Gangdong (0.6), Nowon (0.4)
Nationwide apartment rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
38
Jan
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Nationwide
7.1
12.3
3.5
4.7
2.2
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Seoul metropolitan area
6.3
11.0
2.1
6.2
3.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
Seoul
6.4
10.8
2.1
6.6
2.3
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
Gangnam¹
7.6
11.1
2.4
6.7
2.0
0.9
0.7
0.4 -0.1 -0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Gangbuk²
5.1
10.6
1.8
6.4
2.6
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
9.2
14.5
4.6
3.3
1.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0
(m-o-m, %)
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0 2009.1
7
Nationwide
EB 9월호 내지.indd 38
2010.1
7
2001.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Apartment sales transactions in July increased 5.1 percent from 73,108 transactions in the previous month to 76,850 transactions, and were up 94.0 percent from a year earlier (39,608), when transactions plunged immediately after the expiration of the property acquisition tax cut.
Apartment sales transactions
(Monthly average, thousands)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nationwide
73
67
82
61
40
47
57
90
85
93
59
79
89
93
78
73
Jul 77
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Monthly apartment transaction volume Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport 160
(thousands)
140
39
120 100
60 40 20 0
2009.1
7
2010.1
7
Nationwide
2011.1
7
2012.1
Seoul metropolitan area
7
2013.1
7
2014.1
7
The Green Book
80
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in July rose 0.17 percent month-on-month. Land price growth accelerated in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.15%), which includes Seoul (up 0.21%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.11%). Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.15 (Dec 2013) > 0.11 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.22 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr) > 0.15 (May) > 0.13 (Jun) > 0.15 (Jul)
Land price growth also accelerated in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.20%), led by Busan (up 0.22%), Daegu (up 0.27%) and Sejong (up 0.54%). Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.16 (Dec 2013) > 0.10 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.17 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr) > 0.15 (May) > 0.18 (Jun) > 0.20 (Jul)
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14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Land prices by region
(Percentage change from previous period)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1
2013 Q2
Q3
Q4 Annual
2014 Q2 May
Q1
Jun
Jul
Nationwide
-0.31 0.96 1.05 1.17 0.87 1.14 0.21 0.37 0.10 0.46 1.10 0.45 0.48 0.15 0.15 0.17
Seoul
-1.00 1.40 0.53 0.97 0.33 1.21 0.10 0.41 0.08 0.61 1.50 0.69 0.59 0.18 0.18 0.21
Gyeonggi
-0.26 1.22 1.49 1.47 0.97 0.91 0.17 0.33 0.07 0.34 0.74 0.26 0.37 0.13 0.09 0.11
Incheon
1.37 1.99 1.43 0.66 0.36 0.87 0.21 0.37 0.07 0.23 0.70 0.37 0.25 0.07 0.09 0.07
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Land prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 15
40
(%)
12 9 6
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
National average
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Metropolitan city
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012
City
2013
County
Land and consumer prices since 1970s Sources: Korea Appraisal Board (land prices), Statistics Korea (consumer prices) 60
(y-o-y, %)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1974
1977
Land price inflation
EB 9월호 내지.indd 40
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Consumer price inflation
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
There were 219,000 land transactions in July, up 9.9 percent from the previous month and 29.3 percent from 169,000 a year earlier. Land transaction growth was led by Seoul (up 17.3%, m-o-m), Gyeonggi Province (up 15.3%, m-o-m), Gwangju (up 33.7%, m-o-m) and Jeju (up 15.4%, m-o-m). Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 39.5 percent of the total land transactions, rose 9.9 percent month-on-month to 86,000 and were up 8.7 percent from 79,000 a year earlier.
Land transactions 2008
(Land lots, thousands)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Nationwide
203
187
208
170
187
26
22
16
18
13
17
153 144 208 201 236 183 205 227 233 207 199 219 13
14
20
19
22
17
20
24
22
18
18
21
Gyeonggi
45
46
41
43
33
37
29
30
44
41
50
37
42
47
49
42
39
45
Incheon
13
10
8
10
8
8
6
7
10
9
9
7
10
10
11
9
9
8
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
The Green Book
208
Seoul
41
Land transaction volume Source: Korea Appraisal Board 500,000
(thousand m²)
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
Seoul metropolitan area
EB 9월호 내지.indd 41
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in July rose 0.2 percent month-on-month and 2.7 percent year-on-year. Output rose in mining & manufacturing (up 1.1%, m-o-m) and public administration (up 1.8%, m-o-m), but fell in services (down 0.4%, m-o-m) and construction (down 1.4%, m-o-m).
Index of all industry production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
42
20
(%)
15 10
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
Index of all industry production (m-o-m)
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
Index of all industry production(y-o-y)
2013 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2014 Apr
May
Jun¹
Jul¹
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
0.4 2.0
1.1 0.9
-1.5 1.4
0.7 2.7
-0.6 1.4
-1.0 -0.6
2.2 1.6
0.2 2.7
Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.4
100.4 0.2
100.7 0.3
100.6 -0.1
100.7 0.1
100.5 -0.2
100.1 -0.4
100.1 0.0
100.1 0.0
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.4
101.5 0.4
101.6 0.1
101.5 -0.1
101.3 -0.2
101.4 0.1
101.3 -0.1
101.5 0.2
101.6 0.1
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p) 1. Preliminary
EB 9월호 내지.indd 42
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index was unchanged in July. Among the components of the coincident composite index, mining & manufacturing production, service output, retail sales and domestic shipments rose, while the value of construction completed and imports fell. Components of the coincident composite index in July (m-o-m) mining & manufacturing production (0.4%), service output (0.7%), retail sales (0.6%), domestic shipments (0.4%), value of construction completed (-1.4%), imports (-0.7%)
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
43
100
2004.1
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.1 points. Four components of the leading composite index declined, while five others rose.
The Green Book
90
Components of the leading composite index in July (m-o-m) indicator of inventory cycle (0.3%p), domestic shipments of machinery (0.9%), ratio of export to import prices (0.2%), international commodity prices (1.8%), KOSPI (0.5%), consumer expectations index (-1.2p), value of construction orders received (-2.9%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-4.1%p), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.11%p)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110
(points)
100
90 2004.1
EB 9월호 내지.indd 43
2005.1
2006.1
2007.1
2008.1
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
44 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
PO LIC Y ISS UE S 2015 Budget Planned to Support Expansionary Fiscal Policies Government to Promote Private Pension Plans
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14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
2015 Budget Planned to Support Expansionary Fiscal Policies The 2015 budget proposal promotes expansionary policies as total budgets will be increased by 20 trillion won, or 5.7 percent compared with the 2014 budget. A total of 376 trillion won will be spent to help the economy build up recovery momentum, improve safety and support the working class. Deficits in fiscal balance and national debt are projected to temporarily increase from 1.7 percent to 2.1 percent and from 35.1 percent to 35.7 percent, respectively, but the government is confident that fiscal soundness will continue to improve in the mid- to long-term.
I. 2015 budget proposal
45
1. Key policies
Budgets will be more efficiently spent in 2015 by getting rid of wasteful spending on similar or overlapping projects and benefit fraud.
Policy Issues
The 2015 budget proposal supports expansionary fiscal policies, while emphasizing increased investment in job creation, domestic consumption and the creative economy in order to achieve sustainable growth. Investment to guarantee infrastructure safety will be increased, and supports for the working class will be strengthened.
2. The 2015 budget proposal The government revenues are projected to increase 3.6 percent, which is smaller than a 6.2 percent increase forecast in the 2013-2017 national fiscal management plan. The total government expenditures will rise 20 trillion won, or 5.7 percent, which is larger than a 3.5 percent increase projected in the 5 year national fiscal management plan. The increase is larger than the average supplementary budget of 5-6 trillion won in the past few years. The 2015 budget proposal lays the foundations for creating a virtuous cycle of expansionary fiscal spending, increased consumption, economic recovery and increased revenues, while continues to purse fiscal expenditure efficiency. (trillion won, %) Total government revenues Total government expenditures Consolidated fiscal balance minus social security (% to GDP) Consolidated fiscal balance (% to GDP) National debt (% to GDP)
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2014 budget 369.3 355.8 -25.5 (-1.7) 13.5 (0.9) 527.0 (35.1)
2015 budget proposal 382.7 (+3.6%) 376.0 (+5.7%) -33.6 (-2.1) 6.8 (0.4) 570.1 (35.7)
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Policy Issues Budgets by area
(trillion won) Change (B-A)
%
376.0
20.2
5.7
115.5
9.1
8.5
13.2
14.3
1.1
7.6
50.7
53.0
2.3
4.6
Sports, tourism, culture
5.4
6.0
0.6
10.4
Environment
6.5
6.7
0.3
4.0
17.8
18.8
1.0
5.9
7.1
8.3
1.2
17.1
2014 budget (A)
2015 budget proposal (B)
Total expenditures
355.8
Social security
106.4
Job creation Education
R&D Creative economy
46 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Industry, SME, energy
15.4
16.5
1.1
7.0
SOC
23.7
24.4
0.7
3.0
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food
18.7
19.3
0.6
3.0
National defense
35.7
37.6
1.9
5.2
4.2
4.5
0.3
6.9
Social order & safety
15.8
16.9
1.1
7.1
Safety
12.4
14.6
2.2
17.9
Local government
57.2
59.2
2.0
3.4
Diplomacy, reunification
3. Budget proposal by initiative Revitalizing the economy
EB 9월호 내지.indd 46
1) Create jobs and support regional economy
- Increase the number of social workers from 199,000 to 206,000 - Raise employment support from 13.2 trillion won to 14.3 trillion won, which includes support for young adults’ overseas employment, daycare support and flexible work hours for women - Increase SOC investment from 23.7 trillion won to 24.4 trillion won - Launch regional projects, such as those to fulfill regional campaign pledges and the establishment of the Happy Living Zone, an integrated area of cities and towns set up to improve living quality
2) Stimulate corporate investment and promote exports
- Increase SME support funds by 5 trillion won to 97 trillion won - Improve infrastructure in industrial complexes - Foster exporters and help them enter foreign markets
3) Increase support for creative economy, promising services and R&D investment
- Increase the creative economy support from 7.1 trillion won to 8.3 trillion won - Develop a high-tech community in Pangyo, while increasing the number of the Creative Economy Centers - Increase R&D investment to foster future growth engines including the 5th generation mobile communications technology, while maximizing research
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
outcomes by promoting the trade of technologies and the work on industrial convergence - Launch new funds for promising services while increasing the size of the existing funds - Reform traditional industries, such as agricultural and fishery industries, to produce high added value
Budgets to foster the creative economy increased from 7.1 trillion won in 2014 to 8.3 trillion won in 2015, which will finance the development of the Pangyo Techno Valley, Korea's Silicon Valley equivalent.
47 Improving public safety - Greatly increase the safety budget from 12.4 trillion won to 14.6 trillion won - Thoroughly overhaul public infrastructure, and increase repair and maintenance budget from 1.4 trillion won to 2.0 trillion won - Provide 100 billion won support for firefighting equipment purchases - Newly invest 50 billion won to integrate the current eight emergency communication systems into one in order to improve efficiency - Foster safety experts and strengthen safety education
Policy Issues
1) Increase investment in public infrastructure safety
2) Improve public safety - Increase the number of security cameras to 170,000 in and around schools, while more closely watching school meal safety and quality of life - Increase electric car subsidies from 800 cars to 3,000 cars, and introduce the hybrid car subsidies of 1 million won per car, for which 40,000 cars will be made eligible 3) Enhance national defense capabilities
- Invest to enhance military capabilities - Improve the safety and welfare of armed forces
Strengthening social security 1) Support small businesses
EB 9월호 내지.indd 47
- Increase small business funds from 1.2 trillion won to 2.0 trillion won, and provide low interest rate loans in order to help develop traditional markets - Launch the Hope Return Package, a financial support scheme for small business owners who want to close their businesses and return to paid employment jobs
14. 9. 25. 오후 6:03
Policy Issues
2) Introduce 3 packages - Introduce the monthly regular employee wage support of up to 600,000 won per of vulnerable class employee for up to one year from the time the employee was transferred from a support nonregular position to a regular position - Introduce the Unemployment Credit, which will pay some of the National Pension Insurance payments for those temporarily losing jobs - Launch SME retirement pension funds, which will provide the amount equivalent to 10 percent of the money saved by SME employees for the past three years and also pay 50 percent of fund management fees 3) Strengthen tailored welfare programs
48
- Young adults: Reduce tuition fees by half, promote starting business and provide vocational training - Women: Increase the number of public daycare centers by 171 and part time jobs by two folds, of which the working hours are decided by woman employees - Elderly: Increase the budget for the basic old age pension from 5.2 trillion won to 7.6 trillion won - Farmers and fishermen: Provide low interest rate loans and increase the number of farm reverse mortgages
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Children are playing at a workplace daycare center that opened earlier this year. The 2015 budget proposal includes plans to increase the number of public daycare centers to help working moms.
4) Increase basic living expenses support
- Provide vaccination against hepatitis A to children and flu vaccination to the elderly - Introduce an around 100,000 won energy voucher to 960,000 households in order to support heating expenses
II. 2014-2018 national fiscal management plan 1. Key policies The government will adopt expansive fiscal policies in the short-term to prop up the economic recovery and develop future growth engines, while the mid- to long-term fiscal management plans focus on improving fiscal soundness and strengthening fiscal fundamentals by developing a virtuous cycle of high growth and improved fiscal soundness. The government will continue to work on fiscal restructuring, while increasing spending efficiency.
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2. Mid-term fiscal outlook and fiscal management goals - Total government revenues are projected to increase at an average of 5.1 percent every year in 2014-2018. - Total government expenditures will increase at an average of 4.5 percent every year in 2014-2018. - The consolidated fiscal balance minus social security will temporarily worsen as it will post a deficit of 1.7 percent to GDP, but will gradually improve to a deficit of 1.0 percent in 2018. - National debt will be in the mid-30 percent range to GDP. 2014-2018 national fiscal management plan
(trillion won, %)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Total government revenues ( % growth) - National taxes
369.3 (-0.9) 216.5
382.7 (3.6) 221.5
404.6 (5.7) 238.1
428.1 (5.8) 254.1
450.8 (5.3) 272.3
Total government expenditures (% growth) Fiscal balance (% GDP) National debt (% GDP)
355.8 (4.0) -25.5 (-1.7) 527.0 (35.1)
376.0 (5.7) -33.6 (-2.1) 570.1 (35.7)
393.6 (4.7) -30.9 (-1.8) 615.5 (36.4)
408.4 (3.8) -24.0 (-1.3) 659.4 (36.7)
424.0 (3.8) -18.1 (-1.0) 691.6 (36.3)
1) Reform fiscal management system
The government will work on improving the fiscal management system on the basis of the following three directions:
Policy Issues
3. Managing Korea’s fiscal resources management
49
- Redesign fiscal projects from the public perspective - Reform fiscal structure - Adopt private sector expertise The government will continue to pursue reducing expenditures and increasing revenues by reforming the fiscal management system, and will adjust 600 fiscal projects, 10 percent of the total, by 2017, by combining overlapping or similar projects. Funds which have been managed outside of the budget plan, such as revenues from sports lottery sales and the Korea Racing Authority’s special reserve fund, will be managed according to the budget plan. The government will strengthen the connection between budget allocation and project performance. 2) Broaden the tax base Tax reductions and exemptions that are evaluated to be no longer effective will be reformed, while tax breaks to support SMEs, working classes and middle-income households will be kept or gradually phased out.
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Policy Issues
The government will increase tax transparency by avoiding tax fraud, in particular strictly treating overseas tax evasion. The government will continue to work on revising and enacting laws to efficiently tackle tax evasion. 3) Strengthen fiscal risk management
The government will more tightly manage public sector debt by strengthening the monitoring and analysis of fiscal risk factors in public entities. The establishment of a public sector debt management system will be reviewed in the mid-term, and the government will produce a public sector fiscal risk report to do in-depth analyses of public sector debt, including debts in public enterprises, public pension funds and government guarantee programs. Risk factors that may lead to a fiscal crisis will be more strictly monitored, which include risk factors in national debt, central government fiscal balance, public enterprises and local government fiscal conditions.
50
4) Budget allocation plan by area
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Regarding social welfare, the government will build a welfare policy framework while at the same time making expenditures more efficient and expanding investment in income redistribution. The government will continue to pursue establishing work-friendly welfare programs and a strong basic social security system, and will provide a better environment for research and higher education while at the same time strengthening job training programs and increasing lifelong learning opportunities. Regarding the economy, the government will increase investment in 2015 to prop up the economic recovery. However, it will work on making fiscal investment more efficient in the mid-term. The government will increase spending on public infrastructure safety and maintenance, and will continue to invest in SOC projects currently under construction. Support to stimulate corporate investment, exports and SMEs will continue to be strengthened, and at the same time R&D support for future growth engines, which includes fostering new industries and creating new markets, will be increased. With respect to agriculture and fishery, the government will strengthen the foundations of rural income creation by providing an improved social safety net and promoting the industries’ competitiveness. The government will continue to invest in public safety, and will found a basis for developing it into an industry.
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III. Future plans The 2015 budget proposal and the 2014-2018 national fiscal management plan will proceed through the Cabinet Meeting on September 18, and will be submitted to the National Assembly by September 23.
Government to Promote Private Pension Plans 51
Measures to promote private pension plans
Policy Issues
Korea has a number of systems in place to guarantee that the elderly have a source of income: The National Pension Plan was introduced in 1988, personal pension plans were introduced in 1994, and retirement pension plans were introduced in 2004. Government pension plans, such as the basic pension and national pension plans, are in a good place, and now it is time to start strengthening private pension plans, including retirement pension plans.
1. Increase the number of beneficiaries Beginning in 2016, the government will make it mandatory for businesses with 300 or more employees to provide retirement pensions to their employees, and this requirement will gradually be extended to all businesses by 2022. Schedule for mandatory retirement pension plan January 1, 2016
January 1, 2017
January 1, 2018
January 1, 2019
January 1, 2022
Number of employees for the plan to be mandatory
300 or more
100-300
30-100
10-30
10 or less
Number of businesses newly joining the plan
672
4,936
30,609
112,227
1,276,659
The mandatory plans will allow more employees to enjoy the superior benefits of retirement pension plans, compared to the severance pay they are receiving now, and temporary workers working for less than a year will also be made eligible for the pension plan. The government is looking into ways to ensure that this mandate does not place an undue burden upon employees as well as businesses.
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Policy Issues 2. Reduce burdens The government will launch an SME retirement pension fund in July 2015, which will provide retirement pension contribution support to SME employees for three years. The fund will provide matching funds of 10 percent of the employee contribution if the employee earns less than 1.4 million won a month, and 50 percent of fund management fees. In addition, employees will receive tax deductions for retirement pension contributions of up to 3 million won a year.
N
3. Improve fund management The government will ease excessive asset management regulations concerning retirement pensions in order to balance stability and profits, and introduce a fund-type retirement pension system in order to guarantee pension benefits.
52
The investment ceiling on the total amount of risky assets will be eased from 40 percent to 70 percent for the defined contribution pension plans and the individual retirement pension plans, and investment restrictions on individual risky assets will be lifted.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
The government will introduce a fund-type retirement pension system in July 2016, which requires corporate retirement pension funds to be managed as an independent fund. This system will guarantee retirement pension benefits even in the case that the company goes out of business. Large companies adopting the defined benefit pension plans will be required to form an investment advisory committee and produce a report on their investment principles. As for small companies adopting the defined contribution pension plans, the government will promote joint fund management by those small companies, and will provide necessary rules and guidelines. The government will also promote the launch of various types of private retirement pension plans which reflect different demand, for example pension plans whose funds are managed by commissioned institutions and pension plans which allow medical costs to be withdrawn.
4. Increase consumer protection The government will develop comprehensive consumer protection regulations regarding private retirement pension plans by December 2014, which will cover the entire process of sales, fund management and publication. The 70 percent requirement for funds to be managed as an independent fund will be tightened to 100 percent for the defined benefit pension plans starting in 2020. * 70% (2014-2015) > 80% (2016-2017) > 90% (2018-2019) > 100% (from 2020 on)
Deposits in the defined contribution pension plans and the individual retirement pension plans will be protected for up to 50 million won per financial institution, and the tax code will be revised in favor of those receiving pension benefits instead of severance pay.
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Ec o Ne no ws mi c Br iefi ng
53 E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g
Government to implement emissions trading system in 2015 Plans to innovate financial industry unveiled G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting Regulations on urban land use and construction to be eased S&P raises Korea’s credit rating outlook Korea grows 0.5% in Q2
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Economic News Briefing The government announced on September 2 that it will implement an emissions trading system in 2015 and find a way to minimize any negative impacts on industries while working to meet the nation's emissions reduction target.
emission vehicle purchases. However, studies have shown that these standards can negatively affect certain industries, while reducing emissions by only a small amount. Instead of postponing the low emission vehicle standard, the government will increase subsidies for environmentally-friendly vehicles, as well as develop emission and fuel economy standards for cars sold in Korea on par with other advanced countries by 2020. — Plans to innovate financial industry unveiled
54 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
— Government to implement emissions trading system in 2015 The government will implement an emissions trading system in 2015 and find a way to minimize any negative impacts on industries while working to meet the nation’s emissions reduction target. According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance on September 2, the emissions target for all industries will be reduced by 10 percent from the original plan, and additional reductions will be provided for indirect emissions and power-generating industries by using the 2013-2014 emissions as a baseline for 2015. The base price for emissions will be set at 10,000 won per ton. In addition, the BAU scenarios for 2015-2020 will be reviewed in order to develop a post-2020 national greenhouse gas emission forecast. Meanwhile, the government has agreed to postpone the implementation of low emission vehicle standards until 2020. The low emission vehicle standards were designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by imposing levies on the purchases of high emission vehicles, while giving subsidies to low
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The Financial Services Commission announced on August 26 a set of action plans to innovate the financial industry. The three-pronged plan involves facilitating technology finance, fostering venture capital markets to finance startups and venture businesses, and cultivating an innovation-friendly culture in the financial sector. Banks will be encouraged to offer credit loans based on tech credit ratings, in addition to conventional collaterals and guarantees. The Korea Development Bank and the Industrial Bank of Korea will increase the size of the technology loan fund to 1 trillion won from the current 10 billion won in order to promote commercial banks’ technology finance. The Growth Ladder Fund will be reinforced to revitalize the venture capital market. The Startup Fund, a subordinate fund of the Growth Ladder Fund, will be expanded by 120 billion won from the current 250 billion won, while the M&A Fund, which aims to raise 1 trillion won in the next three years, will support startups in their growth stages. Financial supervisory authorities’ practice of excessively sanctioning financial institutions will be scaled down so that banks can provide technology finance more actively free from concerns about possible disciplinary actions. In addition, banks will be evaluated for innovation, and those that score high in that category will be rewarded.
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— G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Meeting Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choi Kyung-Hwan attended the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting that was held on September 19-21 in Cairns, Australia. At the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Choi stated that if weak demand continues to drag down the global economy, it would chip away at growth potential and make the economy lethargic. He also warned that slow and insufficient policy responses will trigger a prolonged period of low growth, and urged the G20 to take action towards bold stimulus measures.
Around 20 percent of regulations related to urban land use and construction will be eased in order to revitalize the economy, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport announced on September 2. Mixeduse development will be allowed in areas around bus terminals and train stations, which will help boost the local economy and create sustainable
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— S&P raises Korea’s credit rating outlook Standard & Poor’s (S&P) raised Korea’s sovereign debt rating outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘positive’, citing the nation’s favorable policy environment, sound fiscal position and balanced external liability position as reasons for the move. S&P stated that the positive outlook reflects expectations that Korean economic growth will continue its strong performance relative to that of other developed market economies in the next one or two years.
55 E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g
— Regulations on urban land use and construction to be eased
jobs. Also, movie theaters, hospitals and restaurants will be allowed to open in public facilities such as schools, libraries, government office buildings and youth centers. Regulations on green belts will also be eased, so that campsites, soccer fields and indoor sports facilities may be built in developmentrestricted areas. These measures are expected to induce around 5.7 trillion won in investments each year, and the investment will amount to a total of 29 trillion won over the next five years.
Deputy Prime Minister Choi Kyung-Hwan (right) is posing with IMF managing director Christine Lagarde at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' Meeting in Cairns, Australia on September 19.
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Economic News Briefing — Korea grows 0.5% in Q2 (Preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2014, according to preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on September 4. The figures were down 0.1 percentage points from the advanced estimates that were released on July 24.
S A
The quarter-on-quarter growth rates for manufacturing, construction and services were revised down from earlier estimates. Manufacturing grew 0.9 percent, down from 1.1 percent. Construction grew 0.2 percent and services grew 0.6 percent, down from 0.4 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.
56
On the expenditure side, private consumption growth declined 0.3 percent, staying at the same level as the advanced estimate while government consumption growth was adjusted down from 0.4 percent to 0.2 percent. Facility investment was up 1.1 percent and construction investment grew 0.4 percent, down from 1.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. Investment in software and technology, which declined 3.6 percent, was revised up from the advanced estimate of -4.2 percent.
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Export growth was revised down from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent, while import growth was revised up from 0.8 percent to 1.1 percent.
GDP by production and expenditure*
GDP Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Manufacturing
Q1 0.5 (2.6)²
2012 Q2 Q3 0.5 0.4 (2.4)² (2.1)²
-6.7
-0.2
-0.4
(Percentage change from previous period) 2013¹ Q2 Q3 1.0 1.1 (2.7)² (3.4)²
Q4 0.6 (2.1)²
Q1 0.6 (2.1)²
6.1
-4.1
1.9
4.6
Q4 0.9 (3.7)²
2014¹ Q1 Q2 0.9 0.5 (3.9)² (3.5)²
7.4
-4.4
-3.7
1.5
0.3
0.3
0.1
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.8
2.2
0.9
-2.9
-0.2
0.4
-1.2
2.7
1.7
1.9
-2.4
1.2
0.2
Services³
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.6
0.5
1.2
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.6
Private consumption
0.8
0.2
1.2
0.4
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.2
-0.3
Government consumption
2.4
-0.4
1.0
0.2
0.5
1.6
0.4
0.9
0.0
0.3
Facility investment
11.5
-8.0
-3.2
-3.3
1.5
1.0
2.7
5.6
-1.9
1.1
Construction investment
-2.1
-3.0
1.2
-2.4
6.5
4.6
0.2
-5.2
5.1
0.4
Intellectual property investment
9.0
-3.2
3.3
-2.8
9.4
-2.2
1.2
1.8
6.5
-3.6
Exports
0.5
2.5
1.9
0.9
0.2
2.6
-1.1
1.4
1.5
1.7
Imports
3.0
-0.2
0.3
-1.3
0.6
1.8
-0.4
2.9
-0.8
1.1
Construction
*At 2010 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms 1. Preliminary 2. Percentage change from the same period of the previous year 3. Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense & social security, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services and other services are included.
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1. National accounts
57 Statistical Appendices
Sta tist App ic a en l dic es 2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates
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Statistical A ppendic es 1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices) Real GDP
Period
58
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Manufacturing
Final consumption expenditure
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P
3.9 5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 3.0
1.4 1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 5.8
5.8 7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.3
4.4 5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2
2.0 3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 4.2
-0.1 0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 6.7
4.8 8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -1.5
2005 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.5 3.6 4.5 4.9
0.5 4.8 3.8 -3.1
3.6 4.5 7.0 8.1
2.6 4.5 5.4 5.3
0.6 1.7 2.1 3.3
-2.5 1.1 0.0 0.3
3.7 2.1 4.3 9.1
2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8
4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2
9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1
5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0
3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9
1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4
4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8
2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3
1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6
6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9
5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0
6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2
3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9
10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2
2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6
7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4
8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3
4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4
1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0
-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3
7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0
2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8
2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0
-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4
-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5
-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8
1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1
-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5
2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0
0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7
16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9
6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4
12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2
1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2
27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1
-9.2 -2.4 -5.8 7.0
11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4
3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7
-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3
-8.3 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0
8.2 8.3 3.4 -0.9
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1
-0.3 -2.2 -0.1 -0.7
2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0
2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7
6.2 -2.3 -1.0 -3.4
-0.2 -5.4 -2.7 -6.2
11.1 -1.8 -4.2 -4.0
2013P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7
0.4 2.9 7.4 9.9
1.8 2.8 3.8 4.5
1.6 2.4 2.3 2.4
-2.6 5.0 5.9 7.8
1.9 9.8 8.8 5.4
-12.7 -3.9 1.5 10.9
2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ
3.9 3.5
7.7 3.4
5.6 5.3
2.6 1.5
5.9 3.4
4.3 0.2
7.3 7.7
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100) Period
Production index
Shipment index
y-o-y change(%)
Inventory index
y-o-y change(%)
Service production index
y-o-y change(%)
y-o-y change(%)
106.0 107.4 107.7
6.0 1.3 0.3
105.6 107.2 107.6
5.6 1.5 0.4
119.9 125.2 131.4
15.0 4.4 5.0
103.2 104.8 106.3
3.2 1.6 1.4
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.6 107.5 104.0 109.7
9.1 6.2 5.4 3.4
103.4 106.6 103.2 109.3
10.0 5.4 4.7 2.8
104.9 109.8 112.3 119.9
7.8 11.8 11.4 15.0
99.4 103.4 103.2 106.7
2.8 2.7 4.2 3.0
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ
106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6
3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8
106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8
3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5
117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2
12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4
102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6
2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
105.7 108.9 103.9 112.5
-0.8 0.0 0.2 1.9
105.7 108.9 104.0 111.8
-0.8 0.5 0.2 2.0
123.1 119.4 125.0 131.4
4.6 4.0 9.2 6.2
102.9 106.7 105.6 109.9
0.9 1.7 0.8 2.1
2014 Ⅰ ⅡP
106.4 109.2
0.7 0.3
105.9 108.7
0.2 -0.2
130.1 128.9
5.7 8.0
104.9 108.2
1.9 1.4
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
102.0 106.1 111.6 106.8 110.7 109.2 106.0 100.3 104.7 108.8 112.6 110.3
-3.1 15.3 0.9 0.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.8 3.0 0.1
102.8 106.1 111.0 106.2 109.9 109.2 105.2 99.9 106.2 108.2 111.0 110.1
-2.8 13.5 0.1 -0.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 -1.4 1.9 -0.9 2.6 -0.3
119.3 117.4 117.7 116.5 118.2 114.8 115.4 119.3 114.5 116.1 121.3 125.2
14.2 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.8 4.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 0.6 3.1 4.4
100.3 99.9 105.7 102.8 105.9 105.9 104.8 103.9 105.7 104.7 105.5 112.7
0.3 6.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.5 0.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
110.9 96.9 109.2 109.1 110.2 107.4 107.5 103.5 100.7 112.7 111.8 113.0
8.7 -8.7 -2.2 2.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.4 3.2 -3.8 3.6 -0.7 2.4
109.5 97.8 109.8 108.8 109.8 108.1 106.6 104.4 100.9 112.0 111.3 112.1
6.5 -7.8 -1.1 2.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 4.5 -5.0 3.5 0.3 1.8
128.3 124.6 123.1 121.0 122.2 119.4 124.2 123.8 125.0 126.9 129.2 131.4
7.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.0 7.6 3.8 9.2 9.3 6.5 5.0
102.1 100.2 106.4 105.4 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.6 105.5 107.7 107.4 114.7
1.8 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.8 1.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
106.1 100.7 112.3 111.8 107.9 107.8 111.2
-4.3 3.9 2.8 2.5 -2.1 0.4 3.4
104.5 100.8 112.5 110.8 108.1 107.2 108.2
-4.6 3.1 2.5 1.8 -1.5 -0.8 1.5
133.1 129.3 130.1 131.3 129.8 128.9 133.1
3.7 3.8 5.7 8.5 6.2 8.0 7.2
104.3 101.3 109.0 106.4 108.5 109.6 108.5
2.2 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.7 2.4 2.7
59 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period
60
Production capacity index (2010=100)
Operation ratio index (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Average operation ratio (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
104.7 106.9 108.7
4.7 2.1 1.7
100.2 97.5 94.8
0.2 -2.7 -2.8
80.5 78.5 76.2
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.5 104.5 105.0 105.6
5.7 5.1 4.3 3.5
97.8 103.5 97.7 101.9
2.2 0.8 0.1 -2.0
81.4 80.6 80.9 79.1
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5
2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8
97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3
-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5
79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
108.2 108.4 108.9 109.3
1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7
93.3 97.4 90.5 97.9
-4.3 -3.6 -2.9 -0.4
77.3 75.9 75.1 76.5
2014 Ⅰ ⅡP
109.5 109.6
1.2 1.1
92.5 96.8
-0.9 -0.6
77.2 76.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.7 107.2 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.6
2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.9
92.5 97.2 102.9 98.9 102.6 101.4 97.2 88.3 94.1 98.1 100.7 96.1
-8.0 11.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -6.9 -3.6 -4.6 -1.7 -4.5
80.0 80.4 79.2 79.6 79.9 78.9 78.4 74.3 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.2
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.1 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.7 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.6
1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9
98.5 84.5 96.8 97.4 99.0 95.9 94.3 90.4 86.7 99.2 97.9 96.7
6.5 -13.1 -5.9 -1.5 -3.5 -5.4 -3.0 2.4 -7.9 1.1 -2.8 0.6
78.8 77.1 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 74.8 76.3 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.2
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
109.6 109.5 109.5 109.5 109.7 109.7 110.1
1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.3
91.6 87.2 98.7 99.8 95.6 95.1 98.1
-7.0 3.2 2.0 2.5 -3.4 -0.8 4.0
78.2 75.8 77.5 77.8 74.6 76.4 78.0
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100) Consumer goods sales index Period
y-o-y change (%)
Durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Semi-durable goods y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)
104.5 107.0 107.9
4.5 2.4 0.8
110.6 116.2 116.6
10.6 5.3 0.3
103.7 103.8 105.9
3.7 -0.4 2.0
102.1 104.1 104.7
2.1 2.0 0.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.7 104.8 103.7 108.9
5.3 6.2 4.0 2.6
105.4 112.2 111.4 113.3
11.5 16.9 10.3 4.4
98.3 105.5 94.2 116.7
5.1 5.2 3.6 1.2
99.6 101.2 104.4 103.3
2.7 2.0 1.5 2.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.4 106.4 106.5 111.6
2.8 1.4 2.7 2.5
109.4 114.9 118.4 122.0
4.0 2.6 6.4 8.3
99.0 105.5 92.3 118.4
0.6 -0.5 -2.3 0.5
102.6 102.8 107.2 103.8
3.1 1.7 2.8 0.5
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
103.7 107.7 107.2 112.9
0.3 1.2 0.7 1.2
110.9 118.2 116.8 120.2
1.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5
101.7 107.2 95.0 119.6
2.7 1.6 2.9 1.0
101.2 103.0 108.0 106.7
-1.4 0.2 0.7 2.8
2014 Ⅰ ⅡP
106.3 108.5
2.5 0.7
117.5 121.2
6.0 2.5
99.9 104.6
-1.8 -2.4
103.9 104.3
2.7 1.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.5 97.8 105.0 103.0 110.1 106.1 108.2 102.3 109.1 109.0 111.6 114.3
2.1 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.3 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.1
107.2 107.2 113.7 107.3 117.3 120.0 125.6 114.0 115.7 117.1 123.1 125.9
3.3 9.8 -0.4 1.0 4.4 2.2 7.4 4.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 10.6
104.7 91.9 100.4 104.8 111.4 100.3 97.3 82.1 97.6 114.8 118.8 121.5
-0.2 2.0 0.1 -1.3 0.8 -0.9 0.9 -5.1 -3.0 -2.0 5.1 -1.4
108.8 96.0 102.9 100.1 106.1 102.1 104.9 105.7 111.1 102.7 103.0 105.8
2.4 4.8 2.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 -0.5
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.6 99.5 107.0 105.3 110.8 106.9 109.2 104.6 107.7 111.2 113.1 114.5
-2.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.2 -1.3 2.0 1.3 0.2
112.2 105.9 114.7 115.0 119.5 120.2 127.4 116.3 106.8 120.4 120.2 120.0
4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.0 -7.7 2.8 -2.4 -4.7
102.9 93.1 109.2 106.4 113.8 101.5 98.1 87.1 99.9 113.6 123.5 121.8
-1.7 1.3 8.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.8 6.1 2.4 -1.0 4.0 0.2
101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.1 105.5 106.9 111.6 105.9 105.3 108.8
-6.5 3.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 3.1 2.2 2.8
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
110.5 99.1 109.3 105.5 112.0 108.0 109.9
5.6 -0.4 2.1 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.6
116.8 117.1 118.6 114.1 121.7 127.6 131.3
4.1 10.6 3.4 -0.8 1.8 6.2 3.1
100.2 91.6 107.9 105.4 111.3 97.1 95.3
-2.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -2.2 -4.3 -2.9
112.1 94.0 105.5 101.5 107.8 103.6 106.3
10.2 -5.3 2.9 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.8
61 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods
Period
62
y-o-y change (%)
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Consumer sentiment index
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
100.9 102.5 101.9
0.9 1.6 -0.6
100.3 102.8 103.1
0.3 2.5 0.3
101.2 102.4 101.4
1.2 1.2 -1.0
-
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
101.0 97.9 101.5 103.3
4.6 0.9 0.8 -2.2
99.5 100.7 100.9 100.1
3.8 3.1 -0.1 -5.0
101.6 96.8 101.7 104.6
4.7 0.2 1.1 -1.1
-
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0
-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6
97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0
-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9
102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4
0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1
-
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
102.8 98.4 102.1 104.5
2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4
108.0 100.6 102.3 101.5
10.4 1.5 -0.2 -9.4
100.5 97.4 101.9 105.8
-1.5 -2.8 -1.9 2.3
-
2014 Ⅰ ⅡP
100.4 99.9
-2.3 1.5
103.2 102.7
-4.4 2.1
99.2 98.8
-1.3 1.4
-
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
100.6 98.6 103.1 99.2 101.6 98.9 102.8 101.5 106.1 106.6 105.7 105.7
-7.0 10.9 -2.6 0.9 5.9 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 4.7 1.5
92.5 98.3 102.5 94.1 100.4 102.8 105.3 98.4 103.9 108.5 110.9 116.5
-8.3 6.0 -2.4 -3.6 1.2 -2.4 0.7 0.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 15.5
104.0 98.7 103.3 101.3 102.1 97.3 101.8 102.9 107.0 105.7 103.5 101.1
-6.6 13.1 -2.6 2.6 8.0 0.2 3.4 -1.1 4.4 -0.8 1.6 -4.1
98 102 102 106 106 101 100 101 99 100 100 99
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
108.4 96.7 103.2 99.1 99.3 96.7 103.2 103.7 99.3 108.7 102.8 102.0
7.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 2.2 -6.4 2.0 -2.7 -3.5
110.4 106.1 107.6 97.9 101.3 102.6 108.8 103.6 94.6 104.3 102.9 97.4
19.4 7.9 5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.3 -9.0 -3.9 -7.2 -16.4
107.5 92.6 101.3 99.6 98.5 94.1 100.8 103.7 101.3 110.6 102.7 104.0
3.4 -6.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 -5.3 4.6 -0.8 2.8
102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P 8
102.2 96.3 102.6 101.2 99.6 99.0 103.7 -
-5.7 -0.4 -0.6 2.1 0.3 2.4 0.5 -
99.8 106.5 103.3 97.8 103.4 106.8 106.6 -
-9.6 0.4 -4.0 -0.1 2.1 4.1 -2.0 -
103.3 91.9 102.3 102.7 97.9 95.7 102.6 -
-3.9 -0.8 1.0 3.1 -0.6 1.7 1.8 -
109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total
Period
2011 2012 2013
Public
y-o-y change (%)
Private
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Estimated facility investment index y-o-y (2010=100)
change (%)
7.6 -13.9 6.7
2,407 2,142 2,580
-2.6 -11.0 20.5
22,741 19,506 20,524
8.8 -14.2 5.2
103.5 100.6 99.3
3.5 -2.8 -1.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,383 6,723 5,666 6,376
15.3 9.6 -0.7 6.4
358 708 310 1,031
-36.7 83.1 -18.6 -9.5
6,025 6,015 5,356 5,345
21.2 4.6 0.6 10.1
97.0 109.4 104.5 103.0
5.2 7.4 3.2 -1.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910
-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0
810 285 579 468
126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6
5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442
-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9
105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4
8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
5,592 5,867 5,148 6,498
-11.4 8.8 2.2 32.4
429 554 522 1,075
-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7
5,163 5,313 4,625 5,423
-6.1 4.0 3.8 22.1
91.2 100.6 98.8 106.4
-13.1 -4.0 2.7 10.4
2014 Ⅰ ⅡP
6,594 6,126
17.9 4.4
1,221 305
184.6 -45.0
5,373 5,821
4.1 9.6
96.6 106.8
5.9 6.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,933 2,541 1,836 1,845 1,830 1,716 1,835 1,509 1,693 1,511 1,656 1,743
-0.8 25.1 -23.6 -4.4 -14.4 -35.4 -9.4 -14.2 -10 -22.5 -27.8 -18.3
52 695 63 56 39 190 310 169 100 86 127 255
-22.2 829.0 -70.9 -10.3 -72.8 -62.2 135.5 105.9 3.5 -72.3 -75.8 31.2
1,881 1,846 1,773 1,789 1,791 1,526 1,525 1,339 1,593 1,425 1,529 1,488
0.0 -5.7 -18.9 -4.3 -10.2 -29.1 -19.5 -20.1 -10.7 -13.1 -13.5 -23.3
97.7 109.1 108.2 106.2 105.8 102.3 105.4 90.1 93.1 94.5 92.4 102.2
5.6 26.4 -3.5 3.0 -4.9 -10.2 -1.6 -16.5 -5.5 1.1 -10 -9.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,847 1,666 2,079 1,846 2,127 1,894 1,935 1,623 1,589 2,606 2,109 1,784
-4.4 -34.4 13.2 0 16.2 10.4 5.5 7.6 -6.1 72.4 27.4 2.4
139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124
169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.4 -28.5 815.4 28.2 -51.4
1,708 1,498 1,957 1,754 1,877 1,682 1,576 1,531 1,518 1,818 1,946 1,660
-9.2 -18.8 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.4 14.3 -4.7 27.5 27.3 11.6
89.8 83.5 100.4 98.2 101.6 102.0 108.0 100.1 88.2 108.9 101.4 108.9
-8.1 -23.5 -7.2 -7.5 -4 -0.3 2.5 11.1 -5.3 15.2 9.7 6.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
1,716 1,848 3,029 2,283 1,842 2,001 1,842
-7.1 10.9 45.7 23.7 -13.4 5.6 -4.8
88 120 1,013 97 116 92 88
-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.4
1,628 1,728 2,016 2,187 1,726 1,909 1,754
-4.7 15.4 3.0 24.7 -8.1 13.5 11.3
88.4 93.8 107.6 108.7 107.2 104.5 111.2
-1.6 12.3 7.2 10.7 5.5 2.5 3.0
63 Statistical Appendices
25,148 21,648 23,105
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won) Period
64
Value of construction y-o-y completed change (Total) (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
Domestic construction y-o-y orders change received y-o-y (%) (Total) change (%)
Type of order Public
Private y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
91,717 88,713 97,938
-0.6 35,120 -3.3 33,807 10.4 34,532
-0.1 -3.7 2.1
51,663 50,622 59,492
-2.2 -2.0 17.5
95,332 89,395 75,644
6.1 -6.2 -15.4
28,624 26,071 24,574
-2.0 -8.9 -5.7
61,839 59,811 48,888
12.3 -3.3 -18.3
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,277 24,057 21,423 26,960
-5.2 7,322 -0.1 9,290 -2.7 7,684 4.4 10,825
-2.1 1.8 -1.5 0.7
11,031 13,339 12,597 14,696
-7.9 -4.3 -4.3 6.9
16,335 25,319 20,444 33,233
-11.5 -0.9 5.6 25.5
4,119 6,311 6,711 11,483
-49.0 -8.4 -1.4 54.5
11,107 17,653 12,871 20,209
20.3 4.7 12.1 15.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676
0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8
7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876
1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8
10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613
-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6
22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596
38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0
5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443
37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8
16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877
46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
20,145 25,707 23,679 28,407
4.5 7,005 14.7 9,345 10.9 8,083 10.6 10,099
-5.9 5.1 6.4 2.3
12,375 15,377 14,674 17,066
13.6 23.6 15.8 16.8
13,425 18,143 16,454 27,621
-40.8 -29.5 -10.6 22.2
4,289 5,348 4,910 10,025
-24.1 -4.0 -9.1 6.2
8,781 12,108 11,165 16,832
-46.2 -36.6 -10.8 41.7
2014 Ⅰ ⅡP
21,626 26,101
7.4 1.5
7,144 8,693
2.0 -7.0
13,630 16,462
10.1 7.1
15,501 22,598
15.5 24.6
5,968 6,573
39.1 22.9
9,102 15,725
3.6 29.9
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5,796 6,035 7,444 6,844 7,307 8,259 7,037 6,582 7,732 7,343 8,098 10,235
-6.3 13.2 -4.1 -4.5 -1.8 -12.6 4.2 -4.6 -0.5 -7.8 3.0 -8.1
2,123 2,373 2,945 2,644 2,873 3,374 2,372 2,322 2,904 2,591 3,003 4,282
-12.9 17.0 3.1 -3.6 3.0 -10.2 -0.3 -5.6 2.1 -10.7 -5.3 -9.9
3,373 3,405 4,115 3,903 4,106 4,431 4,281 3,943 4,452 4,452 4,773 5,387
-3.3 11.3 -8.2 -4.0 -3.4 -11.8 5.4 -3.8 0.3 -4.7 11.2 -6.0
7,468 8,488 6,714 6,428 7,310 11,993 6,823 5,390 6,181 5,800 7,239 9,556
52.0 108.1 -8.6 -4.2 2.3 4.6 32.3 -28.8 -19.9 -22.6 -19.9 -42.8
2,034 2,218 1,402 1,453 1,061 3,056 2,304 1,316 1,780 1,970 2,105 5,366
54.6 57.5 0.6 1.7 -43.9 2.2 24.2 -12.5 -46.9 -14.9 -29.5 -13.1
5,269 81.4 6,121 144.1 4,918 -13.6 4,461 -3.6 6,133 29.4 8,505 2.7 4,329 39.9 4,032 -30.3 4,161 4.2 3,787 -24.1 4,798 -18.3 3,290 -64.8
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
6,266 6,222 7,657 8,089 8,142 9,476 7,839 7,657 8,183 8,628 9,083 10,696
8.1 3.1 2.9 18.2 11.4 14.7 11.4 16.3 5.8 17.5 12.2 4.5
2,072 2,345 2,589 2,839 2,805 3,700 2,643 2,561 2,878 2,958 3,124 4,017
-2.4 -1.2 -12.1 7.4 -2.4 9.7 11.5 10.3 -0.9 14.2 4.0 -6.2
3,956 3,650 4,769 4,954 5,062 5,361 4,885 4,810 4,979 5,329 5,625 6,112
17.3 7.2 15.9 26.9 23.3 21.0 14.1 22.0 11.8 19.7 17.8 13.5
3,546 4,431 5,447 4,946 6,073 7,124 5,675 4,708 6,070 7,346 7,895 12,379
-52.5 -47.8 -18.9 -23.1 -16.9 -40.6 -16.8 -12.6 -1.8 26.7 9.1 29.5
1,289 1,287 1,713 1,558 1,559 2,231 1,412 1,493 2,004 1,500 2,648 5,877
-36.6 -42.0 22.1 7.2 47.0 -27.0 -38.7 13.5 12.6 -23.9 25.8 9.5
2,108 2,992 3,680 2,962 4,393 4,753 4,153 3,171 3,840 5,756 5,004 6,070
-60.0 -51.1 -25.2 -33.6 -28.4 -44.1 -4.1 -21.4 -7.7 52.0 4.3 84.5
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6P 7P
7,034 6,654 7,938 8,457 8,173 9,471 7,900
12.3 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 -0.1 0.8
2,310 2,207 2,627 2,737 2,580 3,376 2,461
11.5 4,434 -5.9 4,226.0 1.5 4,971.0 -3.6 5,445 -8.0 5,302 -8.7 5,715 -6.9 5,122
12.1 15.8 4.2 9.9 4.8 6.6 4.9
5,300 5,393 4,807 7,290 6,427 8,881 6,895
49.5 21.7 -11.8 47.4 5.8 24.7 21.5
2,102 2,242 1,625 1,892 2,000 2,681 1,601
62.9 74.2 -5.2 21.4 28.3 20.1 13.3
3,026 3,001 3,075 5,388 4,359 5,978 5,230
43.5 0.3 -16.4 81.9 -0.8 25.8 25.9
P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
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8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)
Coincident index (2010=100)
Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2010=100)
BSI (results)
BSI (prospects)
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
101.2 101.5 101.6 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.4
100.8 100.7 100.4 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.3 98.1
103.3 103.4 104.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.5 106.9 106.8 107.2
101.1 100.9 101.0 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.5 100.5
99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1
101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.2 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.5 107.5 107.9 108.0 107.8 108.1 108.8 109.5
98.5 99.2 99.2 99.4 99.1 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9 98.8 99.1 99.4
107.3 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.9 109.8 110.3 110.2 110.8 111.4
100.2 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.0
88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0
88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
109.8 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.0
99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 99.7 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.5
111.7 112.2 112.3 112.9 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.7
100.0 100.0 99.7 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.4
85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5
85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
117.6 118.0 118.2 118.8 119.1 119.8 120.3 -
101.6 101.5 101.3 101.5 101.3 101.5 101.6 -
117.5 117.9 118.4 118.5 118.5 118.9 119.4 -
100.7 100.6 100.7 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.1 -
89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 -
93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1
65 Statistical Appendices
Leading index (2010=100)
Period
Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million) Current account
Goods
2011 2012 2013
18,655.8 50,835.0 79,883.6
29,089.9 49,406.0 80,568.6
587,099.7 603,509.2 617,127.6
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-3,769.1 -1,921.2 11,994.5 12,351.6
2,453.6 2,520.5 11,435.4 12,680.4
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
558,009.8 554,103.2 536,559.0
-12,279.1 -5,213.6 -7,927.4
6,560.6 12,116.7 11,424.8
-4,715.6 -5,474.1 -4,182.3
133,839.7 150,171.3 150,723.9 152,364.8
131,386.1 147,650.8 139,288.5 139,684.4
-4,746.0 -3,468.8 -2,163.6 -1,900.7
-195.2 372.1 3,723.5 2,660.2
-1,281.5 -1,345.0 -1,000.8 -1,088.3
1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9
144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6
142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7
-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0
2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9
-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7
10,458.1 20,804.7 23,782.0 24,838.8
12,075.8 19,998.5 23,876.5 24,617.8
146,933.9 153,981.4 153,754.8 162,457.5
134,858.1 133,982.9 129,878.3 137,839.7
-3,512.2 -409.8 -2,062.7 -1,942.7
2,782.6 1,835.0 3,162.8 3,644.4
-888.1 -619.0 -1,194.6 -1,480.6
2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ
15,070.7 24,125.2
17,745.2 26,428.1
152,688.6 159,385.4
134,943.4 132,957.3
-3,618.6 -1,953.9
1,905.8 1,330.9
-961.7 -1,679.9
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-2,151.2 -2,409.5 3,814.7 87.8 5,265.5 6,251.8 8,413.0 1,808.7 6,665.1 7,494.2 8,293.6 7,301.3
-1,727.4 -863.1 4,252.0 -222.9 3,387.9 5,370.0 7,529.7 2,118.1 6,246.8 7,472.8 8,580.9 7,261.2
44,738.1 48,304.2 51,217.8 49,330.2 50,854.0 50,649.8 51,530.7 47,379.6 50,709.2 53,409.2 54,492.4 50,894.0
46,465.5 49,167.3 46,965.8 49,553.1 47,466.1 45,279.8 44,001.0 45,261.5 44,462.4 45,936.4 45,911.5 43,632.8
-1,017.2 -2,018.3 64.7 288.4 545.9 -662.3 110.0 -844.3 54.5 -415.4 -833.9 -485.7
1,243.3 873.2 -71.2 364.5 1,660.1 1,917.7 1,260.7 965.2 746.3 867.8 988.6 1,300.5
-649.9 -401.3 -430.8 -342.2 -328.4 -373.6 -487.4 -430.3 -382.5 -431.0 -442.0 -774.7
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,969.3 2,146.5 6,342.3 4,552.9 9,752.2 6,499.6 7,985.1 7,198.0 8,598.9 11,107.9 6,854.8 6,876.1
2,855.2 2,733.1 6,487.5 5,103.3 9,591.6 5,303.6 7,911.7 7,378.1 8,586.7 9,816.8 8,175.6 6,625.4
51,027.4 44,778.4 51,128.1 51,587.2 53,548.1 48,846.1 53,353.6 49,839.2 50,562.0 56,702.8 52,756.9 52,997.8
48,172.2 42,045.3 44,640.6 46,483.9 43,956.5 43,542.5 45,441.9 42,461.1 41,975.3 46,886.0 44,581.3 46,372.4
-1,783.5 -1,394.1 -334.6 5.7 -298.2 -117.3 -1,058.1 -805.9 -198.7 393.5 -1,923.2 -413.0
1,434.6 1,035.1 312.9 -354.1 670.3 1,518.8 1,396.1 912.4 854.3 1,260.6 1,010.9 1,372.9
-537.0 -227.6 -123.5 -202.0 -211.5 -205.5 -264.6 -286.6 -643.4 -363.0 -408.5 -709.1
2014P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3,285.3 4,499.1 7,286.3 7,124.7 9,080.8 7,919.7 7,908.8
4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,133.5 6,646.6 6,859.9
50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,383.0 50,281.0 53,887.2
46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,249.5 43,634.4 47,027.3
-1,912.1 -1,058.7 -647.8 -1,042.8 -336.1 -575.0 -7.4
1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1 2,225.5 1,488.8
-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.8 -337.4 -432.5
Period
66
Exports
Imports
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million) Capital transfers & acquisition of Reserve assets nonfinancial assets
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
Financial derivatives
Other investment
2011 2012 2013
-24,315.8 -51,582.4 -76,881.1
-19,931.7 -21,136.2 -16,951.5
13,142.7 6,747.8 -8,287.1
-1,031.3 2,627.8 3,839.7
-2,542.7 -26,637.3 -41,003.7
-112.0 -41.7 -27.8
-13,952.8 -13,184.5 -14,478.5
2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
3,231.1 -8.5 -11,957.3 -15,581.1
-4,872.2 -5,028.1 -4,652.9 -5,378.5
-472.1 4,043.3 8,344.5 1,227.0
922.4 -160.6 -1,535.5 -257.6
11,172.4 3,754.9 -20,439.5 2,969.5
-30.0 -9.7 -5.4 -66.9
-3,519.4 -2,618.0 6,326.1 -14,141.5
2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2
-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9
14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5
1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6
-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1
-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8
-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3
2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ
-11,560.0 -16,194.8 -23,107.8 -26,018.5
-5,148.2 -3,297.9 -3,988.6 -4,516.8
-6,461.9 -8,919.2 8,996.0 -1,902.0
1,418.9 -604.6 1,694.0 1,331.4
2,562.0 -7,439.0 -23,231.0 -12,895.7
-3.5 -27.5 12.8 -9.6
-3,930.8 4,065.9 -6,578.2 -8,035.4
2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ
-17177.8 -24,208.1
-3,657.7 -7,552.9
-13,596.7 -5,867.2
892.6 2,083.5
6,207.4 -1,701.9
-2.1 -4.3
-7,023.4 -11,169.6
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-1,295.1 435.0 -3,704.3 1,566.7 -2,645.3 -3,200.1 -9,113.6 -3,219.3 -5,763.2 -7,172.4 -9,211.9 -8,258.9
-2,022.6 -3,631.3 -1,925.7 -1,225.9 -1,687.4 -1,144.0 -1,695.4 -1,719.8 -2,290.2 -1,001.3 -1,599.7 -1,192.9
7,904.1 6,238.0 617.5 -3,114.3 -1,893.6 -1,795.1 1,730.8 646.6 1,800.3 -4,742.4 -3,886.7 3,242.6
452.6 245.8 500.1 215.0 -480.7 -4.9 358.8 -35.5 272.0 -137.8 631.8 610.6
-5,167.1 -190.9 -1,137.1 5,832.0 147.6 201.5 -8,171.9 -1,016.0 -4,059.3 185.2 -1,759.5 -11,501.8
-9.6 -5.8 -3.8 0.3 -1.0 -6.0 -5.5 -1.9 -1.6 -4.9 0.7 -2.6
-2,462.1 -2,226.6 -1,759.1 -140.1 1,268.8 -457.6 -1,335.9 -1,094.6 -1,486.0 -1,476.1 -2,597.8 582.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-3,288.5 -3,297.9 -4,973.6 -1,908.3 -9,945.6 -4,340.9 -9,155.6 -7,937.6 -6,014.6 -9,880.0 -8,399.9 -7,738.6
-1,631.9 -1,145.9 -2,370.4 -21.0 -1,659.7 -1,617.2 -1,301.4 -1,275.8 -1,411.4 -296.1 -2,303.1 -1,917.6
-5,226.0 2,023.2 -3,259.1 -1,873.5 -1,091.4 -5,954.3 1,825.5 1,435.1 5,735.4 4,467.7 -1,522.8 -4,846.9
586.9 686.9 145.1 -313.2 649.2 -940.6 443.3 218.1 1,032.6 713.1 14.0 604.3
3,380.1 -2,870.9 2,052.8 -643.1 -6,804.3 8.4 -8,131.5 -6,631.3 -8,468.2 -10,064.8 -1,742.0 -1,088.9
-8.0 -3.3 7.8 -1.4 -11.2 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6
-397.6 -1,991.2 -1,542.0 942.5 -1,039.4 4,162.8 -1,991.5 -1,683.7 -2,903.0 -4,699.9 -2,846.0 -489.5
2014P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -8,132.4 -9,836.9 -5,916.9
529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8 -2,056.3 -1,011.5
-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0 -4,218.5 -1,743.7
155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5 690.9 504.1
1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 3,950.6 283.1 -338.1
-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3
-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7
67 Statistical Appendices
Capital & financial account
Period
P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 11. Prices (2010=100) Consumer Prices Period
All Items
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
68
Producer prices
Services
y-o-y change (%)
Core
y-o-y change (%)
All Items
y-o-y change (%)
Commodity
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
2011 2012 2013
104.0 106.3 107.7
4.0 2.2 1.3
105.7 108.9 110.1
5.7 3.0 1.0
102.7 104.2 105.8
2.7 1.4 1.5
103.2 104.9 106.6
3.2 1.6 1.6
106.7 107.5 105.7
6.7 0.7 -1.6
108.7 108.9 106.2
8.7 0.2 -2.5
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
104.3 105.0 104.9 104.7 104.8 105.2
4.5 4.7 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.2
105.9 107.1 107.1 106.6 106.8 107.3
6.4 6.8 5.0 4.5 6.0 5.7
103.1 103.3 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.5
2.9 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8
103.7 103.8 103.7 103.6 103.9 104.3
3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.6
107.2 107.4 107.4 107.3 107.0 107.1
7.0 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.3
109.3 109.5 109.6 109.4 108.9 109.0
9.1 8.9 8.0 7.4 6.5 5.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7
3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4
107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0
4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6
103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8
2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5
3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2
107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8
3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2
109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4
3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9
1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1
109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2
1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9
105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2
1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3
105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5
1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9
106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4
-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4
106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5
-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3
1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6
110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2
0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4
106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7
1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1
1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2
105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7
-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0 0.1 0.2
105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5
-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4
Source: The Bank of Korea
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12. Employment
Period
Economically active persons (thousand)
Employed persons (thousand) All industry
y-o-y change (%)
Manufacturing
y-o-y change (%)
SOC & services
y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
Unemployment (%)
25,099 25,501 25,873
1.4 1.6 1.5
24,244 24,681 25,066
1.7 1.8 1.6
4,091 4,105 4,184
1.6 0.3 1.9
18,595 19,033 19,347
2.1 2.4 1.6
3.4 3.2 3.1
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
25,473 25,257 25,076 25,409 25,318 24,880
1.0 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.4
24,636 24,495 24,318 24,673 24,589 24,125
1.4 2.0 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.9
4,079 4,031 4,014 4,044 4,054 4,071
1.0 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 -2.1
18,844 18,739 18,595 18,856 18,921 18,833
1.9 3.1 2.1 3.2 3.2 3.1
3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139
2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0
23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402
2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1
4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183
-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8
18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010
3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9
3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736
1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4
24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962
1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3
4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264
3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0
18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514
1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7
3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775
3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7
24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885
2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3
4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335
2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3
19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940
3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6
3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3
69 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 13. Financial indicators (period average) Period
70
Yields(%)
Stock
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
KOSPI(end-period)
2010 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2
3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3
4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0
1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00
2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0
1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9
2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3
1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34
2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5
3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0
2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8
1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54
Source: The Bank of Korea
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14. Monetary indicators (billion won) Period
Reserve money
M1
y-o-y change (%)
M2 y-o-y change (%)
Lf y-o-y change (%)
y-o-y change (%)
75,232.0 82,131.1 91,379.4
11.3 9.2 11.3
425,675.1 441,963.6 484,062.9
6.6 3.8 9.5
1,708,984.5 1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3
4.2 5.2 4.8
2,208,170.4 2,379,518.7 2,543,299.4
5.3 7.8 6.9
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
74,069.7 75,642.3 77,942.2 76,944.6 76,617.3 77,842.5
10.6 12.4 10.9 10.1 10.3 8.9
418,973.1 422,649.3 425,196.4 421,480.1 423,111.9 432,602.2
3.8 5.4 5.1 4.1 2.0 1.6
1,705,451.5 1,719,437.8 1,729,531.1 1,742,645.4 1,753,296.4 1,756,597.4
3.2 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4
2,208,624.3 2,230,191.9 2,243,675.6 2,263,627.7 2,279,234.1 2,288,816.9
4.6 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.2
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
81,635.4 81,655.3 79,068.0 80,641.8 80,547.7 81,804.0 81,555.7 82,369.1 82,958.7 85,078.6 82,956.5 85,302.7
11.0 8.3 8.3 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.1 8.9 6.4 10.6 8.3 9.6
439,352.9 437,193.9 440,075.4 437,445.3 438,795.3 441,611.0 441,760.6 439,573.2 440,034.3 444,477.8 445,463.9 457,778.9
2.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.4 4.0 3.5 5.5 5.3 5.8
1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4 1,773,172.9 1,777,114.7 1,784,220.5 1,796,981.5 1,807,289.2 1,817,134.9 1,819,290.1 1,822,420.9 1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7
4.8 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.5
2,292,213.5 2,302,065.8 2,341,626.9 2,349,723.2 2,357,701.0 2,377,071.3 2,393,737.7 2,405,239.9 2,415,263.5 2,424,000.4 2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9
6.5 7.2 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.3
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5
5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7
464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9
5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3
1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4
4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3
2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,873.9 2,619,029.5
7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2
14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6
515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8
10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2
1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1
5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5
2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,370.7 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6
6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9
71 Statistical Appendices
2011 2012 2013
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Statistical A ppendic es 15. Exchange rates (end-period) \/US $ Period
72
\/100￥
E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n
Won
y-o-y change (%)
Won
2011 2012 2013
1,153.3 1,071.1 1,055.3
1.3 -7.1 -1.5
1,485.2 1,247.5 1,004.7
2011 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5 1,104.5 1,150.3 1,153.3
-11.3 -9.9 3.3 -2.0 -0.6 1.3
2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1
2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
\/Euro
y-o-y change (%)
Won
y-o-y change (%)
6.3 -16.0 -19.5
1,494.1 1,416.3 1,456.3
-1.3 -5.2 2.8
1,353.2 1,396.8 1,536.6 1,458.0 1,475.7 1,485.2
-1.2 -0.7 12.7 4.8 7.4 6.3
1,507.9 1,547.3 1,601.4 1,562.7 1,532.9 1,494.1
-2.9 2.7 2.9 -0.4 1.0 -1.3
1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1
1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5
8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0
1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3
-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2
1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3
-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5
1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7
-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5
1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3
-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8
1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6
-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8
1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6
-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4
1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2
0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1
Source: The Bank of Korea
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Danyang, North Chungcheong Province Danyang is a county located in North Chungcheong Province. Noted for its beautiful scenery, thanks to the surrounding mountains and the river that runs through it, Danyang is a popular destination for hikers and paragliders.
Useful economyrelated websites
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Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr
Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr
Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng
Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english
Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng
The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng
Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr
Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english
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ISSN 2287-7266
ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
Republic of Korea
Vol.36 No.9 September 2014
conomic u l l e t i n
Vol.36 No.9 September 2014
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues
2015 Budget Planned to Support Expansionary Fiscal Policies Government to Promote Private Pension Plans
Economic News Briefing
Government to Implement Emissions Trading System in 2015 Korea Grows 0.5% in Q2 Plans to Innovate Financial Industry Unveiled S&P Raises Korea’s Credit Rating Outlook
Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)
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September 2014
Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr
MOSF / KDI
Tel. +82 44 550 4645
Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr
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