Economicbulletin10 en 1028

ISSN 2287-7266

ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

Republic of Korea

Vol.36 No.10 October 2014

conomic u l l e t i n

Vol.36 No.10 October 2014

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues

2014-2018 Public Institution Financial Management Plan

Economic News Briefing BOK Cuts Key Rate to 2.00% FDI in Jan-Sep 2014 Posts Record High COP 12 Held in Korea Measures for Addressing Weak Yen

Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

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October 2014

Sejong, 339-012 Republic of Korea Tel. +82 2 731 1530 Fax. +82 2 731 1540 E-mail. fppr@mosf.go.kr Website. http://english.mosf.go.kr Economic Information and Education Center Korea Development Institute 15 Giljae-gil (Bangok-dong) Sejong, 339-007 Republic of Korea Fax. +82 44 550 4941 E-mail. jiyounlee@kdi.re.kr Website. http://eiec.kdi.re.kr

MOSF / KDI

Tel. +82 44 550 4645

contents

02 The Green Book: Current Economic Trends 03

Overview

04

1. External economic situation

09

2. Private consumption

11

3. Facility investment

13

4. Construction investment

15

5. Exports and imports

17

6. Mining and manufacturing production

19

7. Service sector activity

21

8. Employment

25

9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market 9.2 Exchange rate 9.3 Bond market 9.4 Money supply & money market

29

10. Balance of payments

31

11. Prices and international commodity prices 11.1 Prices 11.2 International oil and commodity prices

37

12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market 12.2 Land market

42

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

44 Policy Issues 45

2014-2018 Public Institution Financial Management Plan

49 Economic News Briefing 53 Statistical Appendices

Editor-in-Chief Editorial Board Coordinators Editors

Kim Joo-Hoon (KDI), An Il-Whan (MOSF) hoi Jae-Hyuk (MOSF), Lee Seong-Pyo (KDI), Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) C Kim Dae-Hyun (MOSF), Lee Ji-Youn (KDI) David Friedman (MOSF), Kim Seul-Ki (MOSF)

Th e Gr ee nB oo k Cu rre nt

2

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Ec on om ic T ren ds

Overview

1. External economic situation 2. Private consumption 3. Facility investment 4. Construction investment 5. Exports and imports

6. Mining and manufacturing production 7. Service sector activity 8. Employment 9. Financial markets 10. Balance of payments 11. Prices and international commodity prices 12. Real estate market 13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends

OVERVIEW

The Korean economic recovery has been slowing down as inflation remains low and industrial activities fell for the first time in three months, although employment continues to increase.

The economy added more jobs in August than it did in July, adding 594,000 jobs year-on-year.

Mining and manufacturing production declined month-on-month in August for the first time in three months from a 1.5 percent rise to a 3.8 percent fall, due to the summer vacation and strikes in the automobile industry.

Service output improved in August from a 0.3 percent fall in the previous month to a 0.3 percent rise due to strong wholesale & retail and healthcare & social welfare services. Retail sales rose 2.7 percent, up from 0.3 percent in the previous month.

Facility investment in August plummeted month-onmonth from a 3.4 percent increase to a 10.6 percent drop due to a decrease in aircraft imports and weak investor confidence. Construction completed improved from a 1.5 percent fall to a 1.0 percent rise as both building construction and civil engineering works increased.

The composite index of coincident indicators improved for the second consecutive month in

Exports, which dropped 0.2 percent year-on-year in August, grew 6.8 percent in September due to the increased number of days worked and strong exports to the US and the ASEAN countries.

In September, market interest rates fell while the KOSPI declined somewhat due to foreign investors’ net selling of Korean shares. The dollar-won ratio rose and the 100 yen-won ratio fell compared to the previous month.

Both housing prices and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to increase in September, rising 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.

The economy has continued to suffer from weak domestic demand as consumption and investment have yet to fully recover, while external risk factors linger, such as US QE tapering, the weak yen and unrest in the Middle East.

The Korean government will continue to closely monitor internal and external economic trends, and at the same time will work to protect domestic markets form external shocks.

The government will also closely review the effects of its stimulus policies and will make necessary changes accordingly in order to expedite economic recovery.

3 The Green Book

The consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 1.1 percent year-on-year, and the index slowed down from 1.4 percent in the previous month.

August, rising 0.3 points, and the composite index of leading indicators rose 0.8 points.

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends

1. External economic situation The global economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, led by the US. However, downside risk factors remain, such as the possibility of an early interest rate hike in the US, geopolitical risks

4

in the Middle East and the property slump in China.

Other uncertainties in the global economy include deflation concerns in the eurozone, the possible failure of Abenomics and protests in Hong Kong.

US

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

US economic growth in the second quarter of 2014 was revised up to 4.6 percent (annualized q-o-q) from the preliminary estimate of 4.2 percent.

Economic data on consumption and employment continued to improve.

Industrial production in August fell 0.1 percent month-on-month, declining for the first time in seven months. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which forecasts business sentiment, posted 56.6 in September, down from 59.0 in the previous month.

ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50) 51.3 (Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb) > 53.7 (Mar) > 54.9 (Apr) > 55.4

(May) > 86.4 (Jun) > 90.3 (Jul) > 93.4 (Aug) > 86.0 (Sep)

The housing market is gradually recovering.

Home prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month in July and new home sales surged 18.0 percent in August.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (q-o-q, m-o-m, %) 1.0 (Q4 2014) > -0.1 (Jan 2014) > 0.0 (Feb) > 0.9 (Mar) > 1.2 (Apr) > 1.1 (May) > 1.0 (Jun) > 0.6 (Jul) New home sales (m-o-m, %) -0.7 (Dec 2013) > 3.4 (Jan 2014) > -5.5 (Feb) > -6.7 (Mar) > 2.5 (Apr) > 10.9 (May) > -8.5 (Jun) > 1.9 (Jul) > 18.0 (Aug)

(May) > 55.3 (Jun) > 57.1 (Jul) > 59.0 (Aug) > 56.6 (Sep)

Consumption conditions have continued to improve.

Retail sales rose 0.6 percent month-on-month in August, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 84.6 in September, the highest since July 2013.

UniversityofMichiganConsumerSentimentIndex(1966=100) 81.2 (Jan 2014) > 81.6 (Feb) > 80.0 (Mar) > 84.1 (Apr) > 81.9

Employment has picked up from the previous month's slump. Nonfarm payrolls were up 248,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was 5.9 percent, the lowest since July 2008.

Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands) 144 (Jan 2014) > 222 (Feb) > 203 (Mar) > 304 (Apr) > 229 (May) > 267 (Jun) > 243 (Jul) > 180 (Aug) > 248 (Sep)

(May) > 82.5 (Jun) > 81.8 (Jul) > 82.5 (Aug) > 84.6 (Sep)

Unemployment rate (m-o-m, %)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)

2014) > 6.7 (Feb) > 6.7 (Mar) > 6.3 (Apr) > 6.3 (May) > 6.1

79.4 (Jan 2014) > 78.3 (Feb) > 83.9 (Mar) > 81.7 (Apr) > 82.2

7.2 (Sep 2013) > 7.2 (Oct) > 7.0 (Nov) > 6.7 (Dec) > 6.6 (Jan (Jun) > 6.2 (Jul) > 6.1 (Aug) > 5.9 (Sep)

US GDP growth and industrial production Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board 10 (%) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2004.Q1 2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q)

5

US nonfarm payroll growth and unemployment rate Source: US Department of Labor (thousands)

(%)

12

600 10 400 200

8

0 6 -200 -400

4

-600 2 -800 -1000

0

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

US nonfarm payroll growth (m-o-m, left)

2013.1

2014.1

Unemployment rate (right)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012 Annual Annual Real GDP² - Personal consumption expenditure - Nonresidential fixed investment - Residential fixed investment Industrial production Retail sales Existing home sales Unemployment rate³ Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2.3 1.8 7.2 13.5 3.8 5.1 8.9 8.1 2.1

2.2 2.4 3.0 11.9 2.9 4.2 8.9 7.4 1.5

1. Preliminary 2. Annualized rate (%) 3. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg

Q1 2.7 3.6 1.5 7.8 1.0 1.5 0.7 7.7 1.7

2013 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2014¹ Aug

1.8 1.8 1.6 19.0 0.5 0.3 3.5 7.5 1.4

4.5 2.0 5.5 11.2 0.6 1.0 4.4 7.2 1.5

3.5 3.7 10.4 -8.5 1.2 0.9 -7.1 7.0 1.2

-2.1 1.2 1.6 -5.3 1.0 0.2 -6.9 6.7 1.4

4.6 2.5 8.4 7.2 1.3 2.3 1.5 6.2 2.1

-0.1 0.6 -1.8 6.1 1.7

Sep 5.9 -

The Green Book

800

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends

China China’s economy has been weakening. The real estate market remained poor in August, and production, investment, consumption and exports slowed down.

Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 50.5 (Jan 2014) > 50.2 (Feb) > 50.3 (Mar) > 50.4 (Apr) > 50.8 (May) > 51.0 (Jun) > 51.7 (Jul) > 51.1 (Aug) > 51.1 (Sep)

Due to the continuing property slump, 36 local governments lifted restrictions on housing purchases, which were introduced on April 2010.

6

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2011 2012¹ 2013¹ Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Real GDP

9.3

7.7

7.9

Q3

Q4

Q1

2014¹ Q2 Jul

7.8

7.7

7.7

7.5

7.7

7.4

7.5

9.7

9.5

9.1 10.1 10.0

8.7

8.9

Aug

-

-

9.0

6.9

Industrial production

13.9

10.0 10.0

Fixed asset investment (accumulated)

23.8

20.6 20.6

19.6 20.9 20.1 20.2 19.6 17.6 17.3

17.0 16.5

Retail sales

17.1

14.3 14.9

13.1 12.4 13.0 13.3 13.5 12.0 12.3

12.2 11.9

Exports

20.7

Consumer prices²

5.4

Producer prices²

6.0

8.3

9.5

2.6

2.1

-1.7 -2.3

8.6 18.9

4.2

4.0

7.5 -4.7

5.0

2.6

2.4

2.8

2.9

2.2

2.4

2.3

-1.9 -1.7 -2.7 -1.7 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5

14.5

9.4

2.3

2.0

-0.9 -1.2

1. Preliminary 2. Quarterly change: average of monthly change Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment Source: China National Bureau of Statistics 18

(%)

(%)

70

16

60

14

50

12

40

10

30

8

20

6

10

4

0 2004.Q1 2005.Q1

GDP (y-o-y, left)

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)

Japan The economic recovery in Japan remains weak.

Consumption has been improving recently, but industrial production and exports are sluggish and inflation slowed.

Consumer prices rose at a slower pace in August (up 3.3%, m-o-m) , and consumer prices excluding fresh food increased 3.1 percent.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2011 2012¹ Annual Annual Q4

Annual

Q1

2013¹ Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2014¹ Q2 Jul

Aug

-0.5

1.4

0.0

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.2

0.2

1.5

-1.8

-

-

Industrial production

-2.4

-0.5

-0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.1

1.3

0.6

2.8

-3.7

0.4

-1.5

Retail sales

-1.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.1

3.9

-7.0

-0.5

1.9

Exports (y-o-y)

-2.7

-2.8

-5.5

9.7

1.2

7.1

12.8

17.4

7.0

0.1

3.9

-1.3

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

-0.3

-0.0

-0.2

0.4

-0.6

-0.3

0.9

1.4

1.5

3.6

3.4

3.3

1. Preliminary Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (%)

(%)

4

25 20 15 10

2

5 0

0 -5

-2

-10 -15

-4

-20 -25

-6

-30

-8 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

The Green Book

Real GDP

6

7

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends

Eurozone The outlook for the eurozone economy is deteriorating, with the manufacturing PMI falling to its lowest since July 2013. Deflation concerns increased, with consumer prices rising 0.3 percent year-on-year in September.

Manufacturing PMI (base=50) 54.0 (Jan 2014) > 53.2 (Feb) > 53.0 (Mar) > 53.4 (Apr) > 52.2 (May) > 51.8 (Jun) > 51.8 (Jul) > 50.7 (Aug) > 50.3 (Sep)

On October 2, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged and announced that it would increase the central bank’s balance sheet to 3 trillion euros, starting with buying covered bonds over the next two years.

8 (Percentage change from previous period)

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2012 Annual Annual

Q1

2013 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2014¹ Jul

Aug

Sep

Real GDP

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.0

-

-

-

Industrial production

-2.5

-0.7

0.3

0.6

0.0

0.5

0.2

0.0

1.0

-

-

Retail sales

-1.7

-0.9

0.0

0.1

0.5

-0.4

0.6

0.3

-0.4

1.2

-

Exports (y-o-y)

7.6

1.0

1.0

1.8

0.3

1.0

1.2

0.6

2.6

-

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

2.5

1.4

1.9

1.4

1.3

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

1. Preliminary Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg

Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production Source: Eurostat 3

(%)

(%)

10 8

2

6 4

1

2 0

0

-2 -1

-4 -6

-2

-8 -10

-3 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

GDP (q-o-q, left)

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

2. Private consumption

Private consumption in the second quarter of 2014 (preliminary GDP) decreased 0.3 percent compared to the previous quarter but rose 1.5 percent compared to a year ago.

(Percentage change from previous period)

Annual

Q1

2012 Q2

Private consumption²

1.9

0.8

0.2

1.2

0.4

2.0

(y-o-y)

-

1.7

0.7

2.6

2.7

-

2013¹ Q2

Q3

Q4

2014¹ Q1 Q2

-0.1

0.7

1.0

0.6

0.2

-0.3

1.7

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.5

1.5

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Private consumption Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 12

9

(%)

10

The Green Book

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

Private consumption (q-o-q)

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Private consumption (y-o-y)

Retail sales in August rose 2.7 percent compared to the previous month as semi-durable goods (up 8.3%) , durable goods (up 1.2%) and nondurable goods (up 0.9%) all improved. Compared to a year ago, retail sales rose 2.1 percent.

Retail sales Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15

(%)

10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1

2005.1

Retail sales (m-o-m)

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Retail sales (y-o-y)

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Retail sales by type Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50

(y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

10

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Durable goods

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Nondurable goods

Semi-durable goods

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

(Percentage change from previous period)

Annual

2012 Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

2013 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2014¹ Q2 Jul¹

Aug¹

Retail sales

-

1.4

-0.1

-

-1.0

0.9

0.8

0.3

0.3

-0.5

0.3

2.7

(y-o-y)

2.4

2.7

2.5

0.8

0.3

1.2

0.7

1.2

2.5

0.7

0.6

2.1

- Durable goods²

5.3

3.2

2.1

0.3

-4.1

1.8

-0.3

0.2

4.4

-1.1

-2.2

1.2

· Automobiles

2.4

-4.4

12.0

2.1

-7.2

2.2

2.1

-2.1

12.0

4.6

0.8

-3.4

-0.4

-0.1

1.1

2.0

1.4

-0.4

0.9

-0.8

-1.5

-1.3

2.5

8.3

2.0

1.3

-1.8

0.6

-0.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

-1.0

0.2

0.7

0.9

- Semi-durable goods³ - Nondurable goods

4

1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.

3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco, etc.

Source: Statistics Korea

In September, durable goods sales will rise, but sales of semi-durable and nondurable goods are expected to decline.

Domestic sales of cars increased, as the release of new models offset the impact of auto worker strikes.

Cellphone service transfer sales rose due to the release of new products.

Cellphone service transfer sales (thousands, Korea Telecommunications Operators Association) 1,297 (Feb 2014) > 592 (Mar) > 398 (Apr) > 890 (May) > 865 (Jun) > 644 (Jul) > 523 (Aug) > 626 (Sep)

Sales at department stores and large discount stores declined year-on-year in September, due in part to the early Chuseok holiday that led to increased spending in August. Credit card use continued to rise, and domestic sales of gasoline also rose year-on-year.

(y-o-y, %)

2014 Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2.5

7.0

5.2

3.8

5.2

5.1

8.6

5.3

-2.4

-1.1

-1.4

0.8

-4.6

2.0

10.5

-5.5

Large discount store sales

-23.1

-3.7

-4.1

1.2

-5.9

-4.6

3.2

-10.2

Domestic sales of gasoline

2.2

-0.2

-0.9

2.5

2.2

0.6

-4.5

1.7

Domestic sales of cars

9.6

0.9

10.1

3.9

7.5

0.7

-4.8

10.4

Credit card use Department store sales

Sep

Sources: Credit Finance Association of Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for September data)

3. Facility investment

Facility investment (preliminary GDP) rose 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter and 7.7 percent yearon-year in the second quarter of 2014

11

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

Annual

Q1

2013¹ Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

2014¹ Q2¹

1.5

1.0

2.7

5.6

-1.9

1.1

Facility investment²

0.1

-3.3

-1.5

(y-o-y)

-

-6.4

-

-12.7

-3.9

1.5

10.9

7.3

7.7

- Machinery

0.3

-5.3

-3.5

-2.6

4.4

6.5

3.7

-4.9

0.2

-0.4

1.8

4.0

11.3

-6.4

-6.5

10.7

5.5

3.1

- Transportation equipment 1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Facility investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 40 (%) 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

Facility investment (q-o-q)

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Facility investment (y-o-y)

The facility investment index in August declined 10.6 percent month-on-month as both machinery investment and transportation equipment investment fell. The index declined 9.8 percent year-on-year.

The Green Book

2012 Annual Q4

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends (Percentage change from previous quarter)

2012 Annual Annual Facility investment index

-2.8

(y-o-y)

Q1

2013 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2ยน

2014 Julยน

Augยน

-1.3

-3.1

1.1

5.0

5.9

-5.2

2.1

3.4

-10.6

-

-

-13.1

-4.0

2.7

10.4

5.9

6.2

2.8

-9.8

- Machinery

-2.7

-2.6

-3.5

2.9

4.5

7.3

-8.6

1.5

0.9

-5.7

- Transportation equipment

-3.0

2.3

-2.0

-4.0

6.4

2.5

4.7

3.4

8.9

-21.0

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Facility investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 50

(y-o-y, %)

40 30

12

20 10 0

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

-10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

Transportation equipment

2014.Q1

Machinery

Facility investment is expected to recover, led by improving business sentiment and increasing domestic machinery orders.

Business survey index for manufacturing sector (Bank of Korea) 79 (Jan 2014) > 81 (Feb) > 85 (Mar) > 86 (Apr) > 86 (May) > 81 (Jun) >78 (Jul) > 75 (Aug) > 74 (Sep) > 78 (Oct)

Leading indicators of facility investment Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports) 10

(trillion won)

(y-o-y, %)

9

70 60 50

8

40 30

7

20

6

10 0

5

-10

4

-20 -30

3

-40

2

-50 2004.Q1 2005.Q1

2006.Q1

Machinery orders (left)

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Machinery imports (right)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2012 Annual Annual Domestic machinery orders

-13.9

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

6.7

2013 Q2

Q1 -11.4

8.8

-

-

6.8

3.9

-Public

-11.0

20.6

-47.0

94.2

-Private

-14.2

5.2

-6.1

4.0

Q3

Q1

2.2

32.4

17.9

-6.9

27.7

-2.8

-9.6

-9.7 129.7 184.6

-45.0

3.8

22.1

Q2¹

2014¹ Jul¹

Q4

4.4

4.1

Aug¹

-6.9

153.6

-1.5

140.6

-75.3 2,653.2

9.6

8.7

2.9

Machinery imports

-3.0

6.5

-11.8

-2.1

6.8

13.2

2.3

11.2

8.7

-15.2

Average manufacturing operation ratio

78.5

76.2

77.3

75.9

75.1

76.6

77.2

76.3

78.2

74.0

Facility investment adjustment pressure²

-0.7

-1.4

-2.6

-1.6

-1.7

0.1

-0.6

-0.9

2.6

-4.1

1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

13 Construction investment (preliminary GDP) in the second quarter of 2014 rose 0.4 percent quarteron-quarter and 0.2 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous quarter)

2012¹ Annual Q4 Construction investment²

Annual

Q1

2013¹ Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

2014¹ Q2¹

-3.9

-2.4

6.7

6.5

4.6

0.2

-5.2

5.1

0.4

-

-6.2

-

1.9

9.8

8.8

5.4

4.3

0.2

- Building construction

-1.6

-1.6

8.8

5.4

7.2

0.5

-4.0

5.1

2.3

- Civil engineering works

-7.1

-3.6

3.7

8.1

1.0

-0.1

-6.9

5.1

-2.5

(y-o-y)

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Construction investment Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts) 15

(%)

10

5

0

-5 -10 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

Construction investment (q-o-q)

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Construction investment (y-o-y)

The Green Book

4. Construction investment

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends The value of construction completed (constant) in August rose 1.0 percent month-on-month as building construction and civil engineering works both increased. The index fell 0.4 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y) - Building construction - Civil engineering works

2012 Annual Annual -5.0 10.1 -6.6 14.8 -3.0 4.3

2013 Q2 6.3 15.0 7.7 4.6

Q1 3.5 4.4 5.6 1.0

Q3 -0.1 10.5 0.4 -0.9

Q4 -0.7 9.7 2.9 -5.5

2014¹ Q2¹ Jul¹ 0.2 -1.5 0.1 -0.8 2.9 -3.3 -4.1 1.6

Q1 1.5 6.5 6.0 -5.0

Aug¹ 1.0 -0.4 0.5 1.7

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Construction investment by type Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)

14

40

(y-o-y, %)

30 20

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.Q1

2005.Q1

2006.Q1

2007.Q1

2008.Q1

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

Residential buildings

Building construction

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

Civil engineering works

Construction investment is expected to be positively affected by a decrease in unsold houses and an increase in new apartment supplies.

Unsold houses (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 61 (Dec 2013) > 59 (Jan 2014) > 52 (Feb) > 48 (Mar) > 46 (Apr) > 49 (May) > 50 (Jun) > 51 (Jul) > 45 (Aug) New apartment supplies (thousands, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) 12 (Dec 2013) > 6 (Jan 2014) > 11 (Feb) > 24 (Mar) > 39 (Apr) > 39 (May) > 29 (Jun) > 18 (Jul) > 23 (Aug) > 49 (Sep)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Construction orders (current value) (q-o-q, m-o-m) - Building construction - Civil engineering works Building permit area

2012 Annual -6.2 -4.7 -9.1 -0.5

Annual -15.3 -13.4 -19.2 -7.3

Q1 -40.8 -2.2 -34.0 -50.4 -12.4

1. Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

2013 Q2 -29.5 0.3 -29.6 -29.4 -14.6

Q3 -10.6 16.8 -10.8 -10.0 -3.4

Q4 22.4 2.9 17.9 33.4 -0.2

Q1 15.5 -1.4 10.7 24.4 18.4

2014¹ Q2¹ Jul¹ 26.1 21.6 10.5 4.6 47.0 22.4 -11.2 18.7 21.6 9.0

Aug¹ 79.3 57.8 126.8 -30.6 27.7

Leading indicators of construction investment Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area) 340

(y-o-y, %)

290 240 190 140 90 40 -10 -60 -110 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Construction orders

2014.1

Building permit area

Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 33.8 (steel), 23.6 (vessels), 8.1 (semiconductors), 6.9 (automobiles), -3.4 (petroleum products), -3.9 (mobile phones)

Exports in September increased 6.8 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $47.69 billion.

Export growth by region (y-o-y, %) 19.9 (US), -5.1 (EU), -6.2 (Japan), 12.8 (ASEAN countries), 6.5 (China)

Exports rose due to an increase in days worked (up 1 day) , as well as robust shipments to the US and strong exports of steel and vessels.

Average daily exports, an indicator adjusted to days worked, was up 1.7 percent year-on-year, posting US $2.27 billion in September.

By item, steel and vessel exports surged, while mobile phone exports declined. By region, shipments to the US, China and the ASEAN countries rose, while shipments to the EU fell.

Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %) 8.8 (Jan 2014) > -3.3 (Feb) > 1.5 (Mar) > 9.0 (Apr) > 5.9 (May) > 4.9 (Jun) > 5.4 (Jul) > 4.4 (Aug) > 1.7 (Sep)

(US $ billion)

2013 Exports (y-o-y, %) Average daily exports 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

2014

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Sep

Q1

Q2

Aug

Sepยน

559.63

135.32

141.16

136.79

146.37

44.65

137.59

145.75

46.23

47.69

2.1

0.3

0.7

2.8

4.7

-1.7

1.7

3.3

-0.2

6.8

2.05

2.02

2.06

2.00

2.11

2.23

2.07

2.19

2.05

2.27

The Green Book

5. Exports and Imports

15

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Exports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 140 120

(y-o-y, %)

100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

Export growth rate

16

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Semiconductors

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Automobiles

Steel

Imports in September rose 8.0 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US $44.33 billion.

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Imports of consumer goods surged, led by automobiles and clothes, and capital goods imports increased after falling in the previous month.

Import growth by category (y-o-y, %) 4.9 (commodities), 8.0 (capital goods), 23.4 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)

2013 Imports

2014

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Sep

Q1

Q2

Aug

Sepยน

515.58

129.73

126.76

126.03

133.06

41.05

132.38

130.76

42.86

44.33

(y-o-y, %)

-0.8

-2.9

-2.8

0.3

2.5

-3.5

2.0

3.2

3.1

8.0

Average daily imports

1.89

1.94

1.85

1.84

1.91

2.05

1.99

1.97

1.91

2.11

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Imports by item Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 100 80

(y-o-y, %)

60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2004.1

2005.1

Import growth rate

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Commodities

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Capital goods

Exports and imports Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends) 70

(US $ billion)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Trade balance

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Exports

Imports

(US $ billion)

Annual

Q1

Q2

2013 Q3

Q4

Sep

Q1

Q2

2014 Jul

Aug

Sepยน

44.05

5.59

14.40

10.76

13.30

3.60

5.21

14.98

2.40

3.37

3.36

Trade balance 1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

6. Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production decreased 3.8 percent month-on-month in August, as gains in semiconductors & parts and refined petroleum were offset by declines in automobiles and other transportation equipment. Compared to the same period in the previous year, the index was down 2.8 percent.

Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (down 16.2%) declined sharply as the number of days worked decreased due to

summer vacations and production was disrupted due to auto worker strikes. However, production of semiconductors & parts (up 2.4%) and refined petroleum (up 1.6%) increased.

Compared to a year ago, production of automobiles (down 14.8%) , other transportation equipment (down 12.7%) and audio-visual communications equipment (down 13.6%) fell, while refined petroleum (up 8.4%), primary metals (up 4.6%) and processed metals (up 5.4%) rose.

The Green Book

The trade balance (preliminary) in September remained in the black for the 32th consecutive month, posting a surplus of US $3.36 billion.

17

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Industrial production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 50 (%) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2004.1

18

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Industrial production (m-o-m)

2013.1

2014.1

Industrial production (y-o-y)

(Percentage change from previous period)

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2013 Q2 Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

2014¹ Q2¹ Jul¹

Aug¹

-0.9

1.9

1.6

0.3

-0.9

-3.8

Annual

Q1

Mining production (q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-0.5

(y-o-y)

0.3

-0.8

0.0

0.2

1.7

3.2

0.7

0.3

3.9

-2.8

Manufacturing production (q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-0.4

-1.0

0.0

2.1

1.6

0.4

-1.1

1.6

-3.8

0.3

-0.8

0.0

0.1

1.8

3.2

0.6

0.3

4.0

-2.7

0.4

-0.3

-0.6

-0.1

1.7

1.4

-0.1

-0.6

0.5

-2.7

-1.4

-1.7

-1.1

1.6

1.7

1.8

0.0

-0.3

1.5

-4.3

Mining and (y-o-y) manufacturing Shipment activity² - Domestic demand

0.1

1.5

- Exports

2.3

1.6

-0.2

-2.0

1.6

1.1

-0.1

-0.8

-1.0

-0.6

Inventory³

5.0

-0.6

-2.1

5.7

2.4

0.2

-0.5

-0.2

2.9

-1.9

Manufacturing Average operation ratio (%) activity Production capacity4

76.2

77.3

75.9 75.1 76.5 76.3 77.2 76.3 78.2 74.0

1.7

1.8

1. Preliminary

2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry

3. End-period

4. Percentage change from same period in previous year

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.4

Source: Statistics Korea

The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio rose 1.0 percentage point month-on-month to 122.9 percent as inventories declined 1.9 percent and shipments fell 2.7 percent.

Inventories of petroleum products (up 4.6%) , electrical equipment (up 4.4%) and clothing & fur (up 1.2%) rose, while semiconductors & parts (down 8.9%), mechanical equipment (down 4.3%) and automobiles (down 2.9%) declined.

Shipments of semiconductors & parts (up 4.8%), refined petroleum (up 5.5%) and audio-visual communications equipment (up 1.8%) rose, w hil e au to m o b il e s (do w n 14 . 6%) , oth er transportation equipment (down 11.5%) and processed metals (down 6.0%) fell.

The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector fell 4.2 percentage points month-onmonth to 74.0 percent.

Shipment and inventory Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 10

(m-o-m, %)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Shipment growth

2014.1

Inventory growth

19

Average manufacturing operation ratio Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) (%)

The Green Book

100 90 80 70 60 50

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Mining and manufacturing production may have recovered in September, led by growing exports, but strikes in the automobile industry may hamper the recovery momentum.

7. Service sector activity Service output in August rose 0.3 percent month-on-month, led by wholesale & retail, financial & insurance services, healthcare & social welfare services, education services and publishing & communications services.

Compared to the same period of the previous year, service output increased 2.1 percent.

Wholesale & retail rose 1.3 percent month-on-month, led by an increase in department store and large discount store sales, and financial & insurance services rose 0.8 percent due to the robust stock market.

Professional, scientific & technical services (down 4.2%, m-o-m), transportation services (down 0.6%, m-o-m), entertainment, cultural & sports services (down 5.0%, m-o-m) and membership organizations & personal services (down 3.4%, m-o-m) declined.

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Service sector activity Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15

(%)

10 5 0 -5 -10 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Service sector activity (m-o-m)

2013.1

2014.1

Service sector activity (y-o-y)

20 Wholesale & retail E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 15

(%)

10

5

0

-5 -10 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)

2013.1

2014.1

Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)

August 2014 service output by business Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 12

(y-o-y, %)

Financial & insurance services

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8

Wholesale & retail

Total index

Hotels & restaurants

Transportation services

Publishing & communications services

Professional, scientific & technical services

Real estate & renting

Business services

Education services

Entertainment, cultural & sports services

Health & social welfare services

Sewerage & waste management

Membership organizations & personal services

(Percentage change from previous period)

2012 2013 Weight Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2014ยน Q2 Julยน

Augยน

Service activity index

100.0

1.6

0.1

1.4

0.2

0.2

0.9

0.5

0.0 -0.3

0.3

- Wholesale & retail

21.6

0.8

0.3 -0.2

-0.8

0.1 -0.1

0.6

0.1 -0.4 -1.6

1.3

- Transportation services

8.5

1.2

-0.1

1.1

0.7

0.1 -1.0

0.6

1.1 -0.3

- Hotels & restaurants

7.2 -1.2

-2.4

0.4

0.1

0.6

- Publishing & communications services

8.4

3.0

-0.3

1.9

0.6 -1.0

14.7

2.8

1.0

0.5

- Real estate & renting

5.3 -4.8

0.7

- Professional, scientific & technical services

5.6

3.7

- Business services

3.3

- Education services

10.9

- Healthcare & social welfare services

0.4

0.0

3.4 -2.0

0.8 -4.9

0.6

-0.1 -1.1 -0.5

0.6

2.7

1.4 -0.9

0.8

2.5

-2.2

7.4 -3.6

3.6 -3.2

7.6 -3.4

1.2

-0.2

3.3

0.2

4.9 -2.9

0.7

0.4

3.0 -3.1 -4.2

3.5

0.2

2.2

1.6 -0.4

1.6

0.4

1.6 -0.5

0.4

0.7

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8 -1.0

1.2

0.7

1.1 -2.3

1.6

2.5

7.5

6.7

0.7

5.0

0.8

1.1

2.5

1.6

1.5

0.4

2.0

- Entertainment, cultural & sports services

2.9

2.8

-3.0 -0.5

1.7

0.6

0.2 -0.2

1.4 -6.8

5.0 -5.0

- Membership organizations & personal services

3.6 -1.4

3.1 -0.7

3.5

0.2

0.1 -3.5

9.3 -3.4

- Sewerage & waste management

0.6 -0.6

0.5

0.9

1.2

0.2 -1.4

2.2 -1.9

0.0

5.3

-4.3 -0.4

0.6

0.9

0.4

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Service output in September will be affected by positive factors such as increasing stock transactions and the recovering real estate market, and negative factors such as a decline in sales at department stores and large discount stores.

Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) 5.5 (Jan 2014) > 5.4 (Feb) > 5.6 (Mar) > 5.6 (Apr) > 5.5 (May) > 5.4 (Jun) > 6.0 (Jul) > 6.3 (Aug) > 6.6 (Sep)

8. Employment The number of workers on payroll in August increased by 594,000 from a year earlier to 25,890,000 and the employment rate rose 0.8 percentage points to 60.8 percent.

By industry, employment grew faster in services and manufacturing.

By employment status, regular workers continued to lead employment growth, while temporary and daily workers increased faster and self-employed workers started to increase again.

21 The Green Book

3.5

- Financial & insurance services

2.7 -0.9 -1.6 -2.1

0.8 -0.6

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Number of persons employed and employment growth Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 1,000

(thousands)

27

(millions)

26

1,000

26

800

25 25

600

24

400

24

200

23 23

0

22 -200

22

-400

21

2004.1

22

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

Employment growth (y-o-y, left)

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right)

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Number of employed (millions)

2011.1

2013 Q2 Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

2014 Q2 Jul Aug

23.83 24.24 24.68 24.80 25.07 24.18 25.33 25.41 25.35 25.29 24.91 25.79 25.98 25.89

Employment rate (%)

58.7 59.1 59.4 59.4 59.5 57.7 60.2 60.3 60.0 60.0 58.8 60.8 61.1 60.8

(Seasonally adjusted)

58.7 59.1 59.4 59.2 59.5 59.2 59.4 59.7 59.9 59.7 60.4 59.9 60.1 60.5

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

323 415 437 342 386 257 324 421 541 432 729 464 505

594

(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fisheries)

405 440 451 344 394 266 351 402 556 404 717 518 616

719

- Manufacturing

191

63

14 140

219

33

-2

22 -40

- Construction - Services

79 119 122

4

-9

5 123 136 191

64

200 386 416 236 318 199 212 354 507 385 570 387 388

453

-2

-9 -27

19 -15

12

-82

517 427 315 303 483 329 472 526 604 506 711 485 532

536

路 Regular workers

697 575 436 469 615 554 638 632 637 639 606 478 351

323

路 Temporary workers

-34

-96 -152 -169 -65

28

27

- Wage workers

-2 -109

-8

-7

- Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

-78

-14

-6

49

57

-25

-19 -64

26

12 -54 -111 -125

2 -73

74 118 235

242

路 Daily workers

-146

-70 -120 -57

-37 -73

3 -42 -35 -60

31 -111 -54

-28

- Nonwage workers

-194

-11 121

39

-97 -71 -148 -105 -63 -74

19 -22 -27

57

路 Self-employed workers

-118

1 124

33

-67 -28 -104 -83 -54 -57

-7 -14 -17

57

- Male

181 238 234 172 186 123 179 179 262 167 373 228 287

294

- Female

142 177 203 170 200 135 145 242 279 266 357 236 218

300

- 15 to 29

-43

-35

-36 -80

-50 -117 -88 -41

147

- 30 to 39

-4

-47

-31 -10

-21 -15

- 40 to 49

29

57

- 50 to 59 - 60 or more

46 -60

53 107 16

-5

0

19

294 291 270 220 254 196 254 279 285 288 323 227 203

235

47 149 222 215 181 181 156 187 200 182 218 192 179

199

11

-3

22

12

8 -34 -42 -23

97

-6

30

53

45

-6 -42 99

34

Source: Statistics Korea

Employment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 62

(%)

61 60 59 58 57 56 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

Original data

2013.1

2014.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

23

Employment by industry 100 80 60

71.0 70.8 70.3 69.7 69.2 69.1 69.3 69.2 69.0 68.7 69.0 70.4 70.9 71.1 70.2 69.4 69.2 69.1 69.4 69.6 69.4 69.1 69.7 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.7 69.4 69.3 69.6 69.7

40 20 0

7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 17.0 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 4.4 4.7 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.5 4.9 4.3 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.2 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.2 6.2 2012.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2013.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Services

Construction

Manufacturing

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

Employment by status of workers Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 100 4.5 4.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 80

23.1 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.0 22.3 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.4 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8

60

20.5 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 20.1 19.7

40 20 0

45.4 45.4 44.9 44.3 44.0 44.4 44.4 45.1 45.2 45.1 45.2 46.2 46.9 47.3 47.0 46.3 46.2 46.1 46.4 46.8 46.7 46.5 46.9 47.8 48.3 48.2 47.8 47.3 47.1 47.2 46.8 47.0

2012.1 2

3

4

5

6

Unpaid family workers

7

8

9 10 11 12 2013.1 2

Self-employed workers

3

4

5

6

7

Daily workers

8

9 10 11 12 2014.1 2

Temporary workers

3

4

5

6

7

8

Regular workers

The Green Book

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends The number of unemployed persons in August increased by 107,000 year-on-year to 890,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 3.3 percent. The unemployment rate rose in all age groups except the 30s.

Unemployment rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 6

(%)

5

4

24

3

2

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Original data

Seasonally adjusted rate

2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Q1 Number of unemployed (thousands) Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

2014.1

2014 Q2 Jul Aug

920

855

820

722 807

907 812 777 733 783 1,031 977 912 890

31

-65

-35

-18 -13

-40 -29

7

-7 -20

- Male

-7

-48

-26

-13

-6

- Female

38

-17

-9

-6

-7

-33

-9

11

19

125 165

84 107

11

-7

25

40

62

-3

41

-4

18

-6

84 103

87

66

Unemployment rate (%)

3.7

3.4

3.2

2.8 3.1

3.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.0

4.0 3.7 3.4 3.3

(Seasonally adjusted)

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.0 3.1

3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1

3.5 3.7 3.4 3.5

-15 to 29

8.0

7.6

7.5

7.0 8.0

8.4 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.6

9.8 9.4 8.9 8.4

- 30 to 39

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.7 3.0

3.3 3.0 2.9 2.6 3.1

3.2 3.4 3.2 3.1

- 40 to 49

2.5

2.1

2.0

1.8 2.0

2.1 2.1 1.9 1.7 2.0

2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2

- 50 to 59

2.5

2.1

2.1

1.8 1.9

2.3 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.9

2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2

- 60 or more

2.8

2.6

2.4

1.6 1.8

3.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2

4.4 1.9 1.6 1.6

Source: Statistics Korea

The economically inactive population in August was down 298,000 from a year earlier to 15,800,000, while the labor force participation rate rose 1.1 percentage points to 62.9 percent.

The number of those economically inactive due to old age (up 80,000, y-o-y) and disabilities (up 27,000, y-o-y) increased, while those due to education (down 141,000, y-o-y), housework (down 140,000, y-o-y), and rest (down 61,000, y-o-y) decreased.

Labor force participation rate Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends) 65

(%)

64 63 62 61 60 59 58 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Original data

2014.1

Seasonally adjusted rate

2013 Q2 Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

2014 Q2 Jul Aug

Economically inactive population (millions) 15.84 15.95 16.08 16.26 16.22 16.83 15.91 15.98 16.17 16.09 16.40 15.69 15.64 15.80 Labor force participation rate (%)

61.0 61.1 61.3 61.1 61.5 59.9 62.2 62.1 61.7 61.8 61.3 63.1 63.2 62.9

(Seasonally adjusted) Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)

61.0 61.1 61.3 61.1 61.5 61.2 61.3 61.6 61.7 61.6 62.6 62.2 62.3 62.6 143

112

- Childcare

-125

-5

- Housework

201

101

123 126

-3 143

- Education

12

-51

-12

77 118 147

88 -44 111 -76 -68 -111 -141

- Old age

80

-45

148 186

54 154

7

32

21

94

80

-56

182

-53 -125

-7 -106

44

12

21 -38 -197 -90 -71

-61

- Rest

128 244 -2

-3

39

141 336 242 1

0

10

78 -91 9 -14

53 -433 -226 -206 -298 6 -29 -57 -56

-38

36 -80 -112 -96 -230 -127 -47 -140

36

81 113

Source: Statistics Korea

9. Financial markets 9.1 Stock market The KOSPI in September fell 48.4 points to 2,020 points from 2,069 points in the previous month. The KOSPI declined due to concerns over the weakening yen and poor third quarter corporate earnings results.

The Green Book

2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

25

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Stock prices 2,400 2,200

(monthly average)

2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

KOSPI

2014.1

KOSDAQ

(Closing rate)

26 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Aug 2014

KOSPI Sep 2014

Changeยน

Aug 2014

KOSDAQ Sep 2014

Stock price index (points)

2,068.5

2,020.1

-48.4 (-2.3%)

570.2

573.2

3.0 (0.5%)

Market capitalization (trillion won)

1,238.9

1,205.7

-33.2 (-2.7%)

139.2

140.2

1.0 (0.7%)

Average daily trade value (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)

Changeยน

4.1

4.2

0.1 (2.4%)

2.2

2.3

0.1 (4.5%)

35.5

35.0

-0.5 (-1.4%)

11.0

10.9

-0.1 (-0.9%)

1. Change from the end of the previous month Source: Korea Exchange

9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate in September rose 41.2 won to 1,055.2 won from 1,014.0 won at the end of August. The dollar-won exchange rate rose as offshore dollar buying continued due to the strong dollar and concerns over the weakening yen.

The 100 yen-won exchange rate declined from 976.7 won in August to 965.0 won in September despite the weak won, as the yen remained weak due to diverging monetary policies between the US and Japan.

Foreign exchange rates 1,800

(month-end, \)

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 2004.1

2005.1

Dollar-Won

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

100 Yen-Won

Daily foreign exchange rate trend 1,800

(\)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000 800 2009.1

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

7

2012.1

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

Dollar-Won

7

100 Yen-Won

(Closing rate)

2009 Dec

2010 Dec

2011 Dec

2012 Dec

2013 Dec

Aug

2014 Sep

Changeยน

Dollar-Won

1,259.5

1,164.5

1,134.8

1,151.8

1,070.6

1,055.4

1,014.0

1,055.2

0.0

100 Yen-Won

1,396.8

1,264.5

1,393.6

1,481.2

1,238.3

1,002.3

976.7

965.0

3.9

1. Appreciation from the end of the previous year (%); the exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:00 p.m., local time.

9.3 Bond market

3-year Treasury bond yields fell from 2.51 percent in August to 2.30 percent in September. Treasury bond yields fell due to expectations for additional interest rate cuts by the Bank of Korea.

Interest rates Source: The Bank of Korea 10 9

(monthly average, yearly, %)

8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Overnight call rate (daily)

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

3-yr Treasury bond yield

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

3-yr corporate bond yield

The Green Book

2008 Dec

27

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends (Closing rate, %)

2009 Dec

2010 Dec

2011 Dec

2012 Dec

2013 Dec

Jun

Call rate (1 day)

2.01

2.51

3.29

2.77

2.52

2.49

CD (91 days)

2.88

2.80

3.55

2.89

2.66

2.65

Jul

2014 Aug

Sep

2.49

2.24

2.24

-

2.65

2.40

2.35

-5

Change¹

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

4.44

3.38

3.34

2.82

2.86

2.68

2.52

2.51

2.30

-21

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

5.56

4.27

4.21

3.29

3.29

3.10

2.92

2.88

2.68

-20

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

4.98

4.08

3.46

2.97

3.23

2.88

2.76

2.74

2.50

-24

1. Basis point, changes from the previous month

28

9.4 Money supply & money market

M2 (monthly average) in July rose 6.5 percent from a year earlier. Money supply in the overseas sector fell due to net capital outflows, but money supply in the private sector rose due to an increase in bank loans.

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

2009 Annual

2010 Annual

2011 Annual

2012 Annual

2013 Annual

May

Jun

2014 Jul

Jul¹

M1²

16.3

11.8

6.6

3.8

9.5

10.0

9.3

9.2

534.0

M2

10.3

8.7

4.2

5.2

4.8

6.0

6.1

6.5

2,013.9

Lf ³

7.9

8.2

5.3

7.8

6.9

6.6

6.7

6.9

2,725.7

1. Balance at end July 2014, trillion won 2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)

Total money supply Source: The Bank of Korea 40

(y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)

30

20

10

0

-10 -20 2004.1

2005.1

Reserve money

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

M1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Lf

Bank deposits surged in August, led by instant access deposits (-10.9 trillion won > 12.6 trillion won) , as tax payments were postponed due to the last day of the month falling on a Sunday, and also as school tuition fees were deposited.

Asset management company (AMC) deposit growth slowed, led by fixed-income funds (4.9 trillion won > 0.6 trillion won), that decreased in line with lowered expectations for additional interest rate cuts.

(Change from previous period, end-period, trillion won)

2009 Dec

2010 Dec

2011 Dec

2012 Dec

2013 Dec

May

Jun

2014 Jul

Aug

Augš

Bank deposits

54.8

36.9

58.9

37.0

41.0

13.9

9.3

-8.8

7.8

1,206.6

AMC deposits

-27.6

-16.7

-16.6

18.8

17.7

6.0

-1.1

11.5

5.4

363.2

1. Balance at end August 2014, trillion won

Deposits in financial institutions Source: The Bank of Korea

30

29

(y-o-y, end of month balance, trillion won)

The Green Book

20

10

0

-10

-20 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

10. Balance of payments

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Korea’s current account (preliminary) in August posted a surplus of US $7.27 billion, staying in the black for 30 consecutive months.

The goods account surplus expanded from US $6.79 billion in July to US $7.44 billion in August, as declines in imports exceeded declines in exports.

Goods exports (US $ billion) 53.81 (Jul 2014) > 49.01 (Aug) Goods imports (US $ billion) 47.02 (Jul 2014) > 41.56 (Aug)

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends travel, construction and intellectual property rights accounts increased.

Compared to the same period of the previous year, the goods account surplus expanded by US $0.07 billion.

Services account (US $ billion, July > August) Import growth by category (y-o-y, %)

-0.54 > -0.37 (manufacturing), 0.26 > 0.64 (transportation),

8.0 (total), 4.9 (commodities), 8.0 (capital goods), 23.4

-0.55 > -0.77 (travel), 1.61 > 0.84 (construction), -0.02 >

(consumer goods)

-0.38 (intellectual property rights), -0.94 > -0.83 (other businesses)

Export growth by item (y-o-y, %) 6.8 (total), -3.9 (mobile phones), -3.4 (petroleum products),

The primary income account surplus contracted from US $1.49 billion to US $1.05 billion due to a decrease in interest income, while the secondary income account deficit expanded from US $0.43 billion to US $0.49 billion.

6.9 (automobiles), 8.1 (semiconductors), 23.6 (vessels), 33.8 (steel)

30

The services account deficit expanded from US $0.01 billion to US $0.73 billion as deficits in the

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Current account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends) 12 10

(US $ billion)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Services account

Goods account

Current account

(US $ billion)

2013ยน Annual

Q1

Q2

2014ยน Q3

Q4

Aug

Q1

Q2

Jul

Aug

Current account

79.88

10.46

20.80

23.78

24.84

7.20

15.07

24.13

7.84

7.27

- Goods balance

80.57

12.08

20.00

23.88

24.62

7.38

17.75

26.42

6.79

7.44

- Service balance

-7.93

-3.51

-0.41

-2.06

-1.94

-0.81

-3.62

-1.95

-0.01

-0.73

- Primary income balance

11.42

2.78

1.84

3.16

3.64

0.91

1.91

1.33

1.49

1.05

- Secondary income balance

-4.18

-0.89

-0.62

-1.19

-1.48

-0.29

-0.96

-1.68

-0.43

-0.49

1. Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in August posted a net outflow of US $7.79 billion.

as overseas investment by domestic investors decreased.

Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion)

Net inflows of financial derivatives investment expanded from US $0.50 billion to US $0.56 billion, while net outflows of other investment expanded from US $0.34 billion to US $7.29 billion as overseas deposits by financial institutions increased.

-4.48 (Jan 2014) > -6.92 (Feb) > -5.78 (Mar) > -6.24 (Apr) > -8.13 (May) > -9.84 (Jun) > -5.93 (Jul) > -7.79 (Aug)

Net outflows of direct investment contracted from US $1.01 billion to US $0.75 billion as overseas direct investment declined.

Portfolio investment switched to a net inflow of US $0.50 billion from a net outflow of US $1.74 billion

The current account in September is expected to maintain a surplus, helped by the surplus in the goods account, which resulted from increasing exports.

31

Capital & financial account balance Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

The Green Book

15 (US $ billion) 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1

2005.1

Direct investment

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

Portfolio investment

11. Prices and international commodity prices

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Financial derivatives

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Capital & financial account

11.1 Prices Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent month-on-month in September, led by petroleum products and personal services. Year-on-year, consumer prices rose 1.1 percent, down from 1.4 percent in August.

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Consumer price inflation

(%)

Sep

2013 Oct Nov

Apr

2014 May

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Month-on-Month

0.2

-0.3

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.1

Year-on-Year

1.0

0.9

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.1

Source: Statistics Korea

Consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 7

(%)

6 5

32

4 3

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2 1 0 -1 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

Agricultural, livestock & fishery product prices were up 1.2 percent month-on-month (agricultural products up 1.8%, livestock products up 0.7%, fishery products down 0.1%) , as agricultural and livestock prices rose due to Chuseok.

Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) green chilis (30.0), tomatoes (27.7), carrots (27.6), beef (2.3), spinach (-13.3), chicken (-5.3)

Manufactured product prices fell 0.2 percent from the previous month. Processed food prices rose 0.1 percent, while petroleum product prices fell 1.7 percent due to stabilizing international oil prices.

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Consumer price inflation (y-o-y)

Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) laundry detergents (10.8), snacks (2.8), bedclothes (2.5), shampoos (-8.6), diesel (-1.7), gasoline (-1.6)

Personal service prices fell 0.3 percent month-onmonth. Travel-related service prices fell, but dining out expenses rose 0.3 percent. Personal service prices excluding dining out costs were down 0.6 percent.

Price increases by item (m-o-m, %) coffee (1.5), public sauna admission fees (1.5), domestic group tour expenses (-14.9), overseas group tour expenses (-7.6), hotel room charges (-7.0), international flights (-6.3)

Contribution to consumer price inflation Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 5

(%p)

4 3 2 1 0 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2012

2013

2014

Agricultural, livestock & fishery products

Manufactured products

Housing rents

Public services

Personal services

Public utilities

33 previous month, fresh food prices rose 1.6 percent.

Fresh food price increases (y-o-y, %) -12.9 (Jan 2014) > -12.4 (Feb) > -11.3 (Mar) > -12.0 (Apr)

Price increases for basic necessities (y-o-y, %)

>

0.6 (Jan 2014) > 0.4 (Feb) > 0.8 (Mar) > 1.0 (Apr) > 1.4 (May) > 1.4 (Jun) > 1.4 (Jul) > 0.8 (Aug) > 0.6 (Sep)

Fresh food prices declined 8.6 percent year-on-year, led by vegetables (down 13.3%) . Compared to the

-9.2 (May) > -7.7 (Jun) > -8.3 (Jul) > -11.8 (Aug) >

-8.6 (Sep)

Core consumer prices, which exclude oil and agricultural products, rose 1.9 percent year-on-year and fell 0.1 percent month-on-month.

Prices Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends) 16

(y-o-y, %)

13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Consumer price inflation

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

Core inflation

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Producer price inflation

The Green Book

Consumer prices for basic necessities rose 0.6 percent year-on-year and were unchanged monthon-month.

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Core inflation and prices for basic necessities

(y-o-y, %)

2013 2014 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4

1.9

Consumer prices excluding food and energy

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1

1.7

Consumer prices for basic necessities

0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.8

0.6

Source: Statistics Korea

The expected annual inflation was unchanged at 2.8 percent, while import prices fell 9.9 percent year-on-year.

Expected inflation (%, over the next 12 months) 2.9 (Jan 2014) > 2.9 (Feb) > 2.8 (Mar) > 2.9 (Apr) > 2.8 (May) > 2.8 (Jun) > 2.8 (Jul) > 2.8 (Aug) > 2.8 (Sep)

34

Import price increases (y-o-y, %, won base) -3.0 (Jan 2014) > -4.8 (Feb) > -4.5 (Mar) > -7.0 (Apr) > -6.8 (May) > -8.8 (Jun) > -8.6 (Jul) > -9.9 (Aug)

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices declined in September despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East, as supply conditions improved and the value of the dollar rose.

Dubai crude prices continued to fall due to the strong dollar and increased production in the US, Iraq and Libya.

Dubai crude (US $/barrel) 100.9 (Sep 1) > 98.1 (Sep 8) > 95.7 (Sep 15) > 95.9 (Sep 22) > 94.9 (Sep 29) Dollar index (Mar 1973=100) 82.75 (Sep 1) > 84.23 (Sep 8) > 84.26 (Sep 15) > 84.75 (Sep 22) > 85.59 (Sep 29)

(US $/barrel, period average)

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2014 May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Dubai crude

105.9

109.0

105.3

105.6 105.5 107.5 104.0 105.0 104.4 104.6 105.6 107.9 106.1 101.9

96.6

Brent crude

111.0

111.7

108.7

109.3 108.0 110.7 107.7 108.9 107.7 107.8 109.4 111.8 107.4 102.6

98.0

95.1

93.8

98.0

100.5

93.2

WTI crude Source: Korea PDS

94.0

97.9

94.9 100.7 100.5 102.0 101.8 105.2 102.6

96.3

International oil prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160

($/B)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Dubai crude

WTI

35

Gasoline prices (won/liter) 1,825.9 (1st week Sep) > 1,820.7 (2nd week) > 1,814.6 (3rd week) > 1,807.2 (4th week) (Won/liter, period average)

2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Oct Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2014 May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Gasoline prices 1,929.3 1,985.8 1,924.5 1,907.3 1,880.0 1,881.1 1,886.4 1,880.7 1,880.8 1,875.9 1,869.5 1,861.7 1,856.7 1,842.0 1,817.1 Diesel prices 1,745.7 1,806.3 1,729.6 1,711.8 1,692.9 1,699.1 1,705.1 1,698.5 1,696.0 1,688.9 1,680.9 1,670.8 1,661.8 1,644.5 1,620.9 Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Dubai crude prices and import prices Source: Korea National Oil Corporation 160

(thousand won/B)

($/B)

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

Dubai crude (import prices, won, left)

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Dubai international prices (dollar, right)

The Green Book

Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall in September, as falling international oil prices and exchange rates were reflected with a time lag.

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends International grain prices declined month-on-month in September as favorable weather conditions led to increased production in major production areas. Optimistic estimates on next year’s grain supplies also contributed to lower prices. According to the US Department of Agriculture, global grain inventories in the 2014-15 season will increase 3.7 percent year-on-year to 525 million tons, the highest level since 2001.

International grain price increases in September (m-o-m, %) soybeans (-17.6), wheat (-8.1), corn (-5.7)

Nonferrous metal prices fell month-on-month as demand was expected to slow due to poor economic data in China in Europe.

Nonferrous metal price increases in September (m-o-m, %) tin (-5.2), lead (-5.1), nickel (-2.7), aluminum (-1.9), copper (-1.8), zinc (-1.5)

36 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Reuters index*

(Period average)

2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual 3,062

3,006

2,774

2013 Oct Nov 2,655

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2014 May

Jun

Jul

Aug

2,623 2,642 2,574 2,586 2,641 2,650 2,608 2,569 2,548 2,510

Sep 2,415

* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS

International commodity prices Sources: Bloomberg (CRB), The Bank of Korea (Reuters Index) * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

470

4000

430 3000

390 350

2000

310 270

1000

230 190

0

150 2004.1

CRB (left)

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Reuters index (right)

12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Nationwide apartment sales prices in September rose 0.2 percent month-on-month.

(up 0.2%) . Prices in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area rose 0.2 percent. Apartment prices in the five metropolitan cities and the eight provinces were up 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.

Apartment sales price increase in five metropolitan cities

Apartment sales prices rose in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.3%), which includes Seoul (up 0.2%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.4%) and Incheon

(m-o-m, %) Busan (0.1), Daegu (0.4), Gwangju (0.1), Daejeon (0.2), Ulsan (0.3)

Nationwide apartment sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

Mar

Apr

2014 May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

1.9

6.9

0.0

0.3

1.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

Seoul metropolitan area

-1.7

0.5

-3.0

-1.1

1.0

0.2

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.3

Seoul

-1.2

0.3

-2.9

-1.4

0.8

0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

Gangnamš

-1.0

0.3

-3.5

-1.1

0.8

0.2

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

Gangbuk²

-1.4

0.3

-2.3

-1.7

0.8

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.1

6.4

15.1

3.1

1.7

1.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Apartment sales prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0

(m-o-m, %)

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0 2009.1

Nationwide

7

2010.1

7

2011.1

7

2012.1

Seoul metropolitan area

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

The Green Book

Nationwide

Feb

37

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Nationwide apartment rental prices in September rose 0.3 percent month-on-month.

Rental prices rose 0.5 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area, and were up 0.2 percent in regions excluding the Seoul metropolitan area.

Apartment rental price increase in major districts in Seoul (m-o-m, %) Gangnam (0.2), Seocho (0.4), Songpa (0.2), Gangdong (0.9), Nowon (0.4)

Nationwide apartment rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2010 2011 2012 2013 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

38

Feb

Mar

Apr

2014 May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Nationwide

7.1

12.3

3.5

4.7

2.5

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

Seoul metropolitan area

6.3

11.0

2.1

6.2

3.5

0.8

0.7

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.5

Seoul

6.4

10.8

2.1

6.6

2.6

0.6

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

Gangnamš

7.6

11.1

2.4

6.7

2.4

0.7

0.4

-0.1 -0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Gangbuk²

5.1

10.6

1.8

6.4

2.9

0.6

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

9.2

14.5

4.6

3.3

1.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

7

2012.1

1. Upscale area of Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Apartment rental prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 3.0

(m-o-m, %)

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0 2009.1

7

Nationwide

2010.1

7

2001.1

Seoul metropolitan area

7

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

Apartment sales transactions in August decreased 1.1 percent from 76,850 transactions in the previous month to 75,973 transactions, but were up 63.1 percent from a year earlier (46,586).

Apartment sales transactions

(Monthly average, thousands)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual Annual Annual Annual Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Nationwide

73

67

82

61

47

57

90

85

93

59

79

89

93

78

73

Jul

Aug

77

76

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Monthly apartment transaction volume Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport 160

(thousands)

140

39

120 100

60 40 20 0

2009.1

7

2010.1

7

Nationwide

2011.1

7

2012.1

7

Seoul metropolitan area

2013.1

7

2014.1

7

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

12.2 Land market Nationwide land prices in August rose 0.14 percent month-on-month.

Land price growth slowed in the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.13%), which includes Seoul (up 0.19%) and Gyeonggi Province (up 0.08%).

Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.11 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.22 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr) > 0.15 (May) > 0.13 (Jun) > 0.15 (Jul) > 0.13 (Aug)

Land price growth also slowed down in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.15%), which includes Busan (up 0.18%), Daegu (up 0.25%) and Ulsan (up 0.11%).

Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) 0.10 (Jan 2014) > 0.14 (Feb) > 0.17 (Mar) > 0.18 (Apr) > 0.15 (May) > 0.18 (Jun) > 0.20 (Jul) > 0.15 (Aug)

The Green Book

80

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends Land prices by region

(Percentage change from previous period)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Q1

2013 Q2

Q3

Q4 Annual

2014 Q2 Jun

Q1

Jul

Aug

Nationwide

-0.31 0.96 1.05 1.17 0.87 1.14 0.21 0.37 0.10 0.46 1.24 0.45 0.48 0.15 0.17 0.14

Seoul

-1.00 1.40 0.53 0.97 0.33 1.21 0.10 0.41 0.08 0.61 1.68 0.69 0.59 0.18 0.21 0.19

Gyeonggi

-0.26 1.22 1.49 1.47 0.97 0.91 0.17 0.33 0.07 0.34 0.81 0.26 0.37 0.09 0.11 0.08

Incheon

1.37 1.99 1.43 0.66 0.36 0.87 0.21 0.37 0.07 0.23 0.82 0.37 0.25 0.09 0.07 0.12

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Land prices by region Source: Korea Appraisal Board 15

40

(%)

12 9 6

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

National average

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Metropolitan city

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011 2012

City

2013

County

Land and consumer prices since 1970s Sources: Korea Appraisal Board (land prices), Statistics Korea (consumer prices) 60

(y-o-y, %)

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1974

1977

Land price inflation

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

Consumer price inflation

There were 204,000 land transactions in August, down 6.7 percent from the previous month but up 33.8 percent from 153,000 a year earlier.

Land transactions declined throughout the nation, led by Busan (down 17.4%, m-o-m), Gwangju (down 24.3%, m-o-m) , and Sejong (down 20.7%, m-o-m), except for a few regions such as Seoul (up 0.8%, m-o-m) and Daegu (up 3.1%, m-o-m).

Vacant land transactions, which accounted for 37.1 percent of the total land transactions, fell 12.2 percent month-on-month to 76,000 but were up 13.4 percent from 67,000 a year earlier.

Land transactions 2008

2009

(Land lots, thousands)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Annual¹ Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Nationwide

203

187

208

170

187

144 208 201 236 183 205 227 233 207 199 219 204

Seoul

26

22

16

18

13

17

14

20

19

22

17

20

24

22

18

18

21

21

Gyeonggi

45

46

41

43

33

37

30

44

41

50

37

42

47

49

42

39

45

42

Incheon

13

10

8

10

8

8

7

10

9

9

7

10

10

11

9

9

8

9

1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

Land transaction volume Source: Korea Appraisal Board 500,000

(thousand m²)

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

Seoul metropolitan area

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

The Green Book

208

41

T h e G r e e n B o o k : Current Economic Trends

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output in August fell 0.6 percent month-on-month but rose 0.6 percent year-on-year. Output rose in services (up 0.3%, m-o-m), construction (up 1.0%, m-o-m) and public administration (up 7.2%, m-o-m), but fell in mining & manufacturing (down 3.8%, m-o-m).

Index of all industry production Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

42

20

(%)

15

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

Index of all industry production (m-o-m)

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

Index of all industry production(y-o-y)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

2014 May

Junยน

Julยน

Augยน

Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)

1.1 0.9

-1.5 1.4

0.7 2.7

-0.6 1.4

-1.0 -0.6

2.3 1.7

0.3 2.7

-0.6 0.6

Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %)

0.6

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.7

100.7 0.3

100.6 -0.1

100.7 0.1

100.5 -0.2

100.1 -0.4

100.1 0.0

100.2 0.1

100.5 0.3

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.3

0.6

0.4

1.2

101.6 0.1

101.5 -0.1

101.3 -0.2

101.4 0.1

101.3 -0.1

101.6 0.3

101.6 0.0

102.4 0.8

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (m-o-m, p) Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (m-o-m, p) 1. Preliminary

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index rose 0.3 points in August. Among the components of the coincident composite index, domestic shipments and imports fell, while five others, such as mining & manufacturing production, service output, the value of construction completed and retail sales, rose.

Components of the coincident composite index in August (m-o-m) mining & manufacturing production (0.1%), service output (0.7%), value of construction completed (0.7%), retail sales (1.0%), nonfarm payroll employment (0.6%), domestic shipments (-0.5%), imports (-0.1%)

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110

(points)

43

100

2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.8 points. Among the components of the leading composite index, the indicator of inventory cycle, domestic shipments of machinery and spreads between long & short term interest rates declined, while six others, including the value of construction orders, ratio of export to import prices and ratio of job openings to job seekers, rose.

Components of the leading composite index in August (m-o-m) consumer expectations index (0.9p), value of construction orders received (25.0%), ratio of export to import prices (0.7%), international commodity prices (1.8%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (1.7%p), KOSPI (1.1%), indicator of inventory cycle (-0.1%p), domestic shipments of machinery (-0.1%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.05%p)

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends) 110

(points)

100

90 2004.1

2005.1

2006.1

2007.1

2008.1

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

The Green Book

90

44 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

PO LIC Y ISS UE S 2014-2018 Public Institution Financial Management Plan

2014-2018 Public Institution Financial Management Plan The government submitted the 2014-2018 public institution financial management plan to the National Assembly on September 22.

The 2014-2018 public institution financial management plan focuses on the following three points: - Continue to improve financial soundness by properly implementing the 2013-2017 public institution debt reduction plans for each institution - Utilize some of the funds becoming available in public institutions due to the strong won or other changes in external conditions in order to stimulate the economy and support small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and working classes - Introduce a total bond issuance limit for public corporations, and require them to include their bond issuance plans in their mid- to long-term financial management plans in order to prevent them from issuing too much debt

Total debt and the debt to equity ratio (hereby known as ‘debt ratio’) of the 40 public institutions are projected to be 513 trillion won and 172 percent, respectively, in 2018. The 2018 debt outlook is larger than the 2014 debt outlook (511 trillion won), but smaller than the 2016 outlook (526 trillion won), and the debt ratio is expected to continue to fall from 220 percent in 2014 to 172 percent in 2018.

Compared with the 2017 debt reduction outlook projected in the 2013-2017 public institution debt reduction plan, debt is forecast to decrease by 4 trillion won and the debt ratio is forecast to improve by 5 percentage points in 2017 according to the 2014-2018 mid- to long-term plans.

2013-2017 debt reduction plan vs. 2014-2018 mid- to long-term plan

2013-2017 debt reduction plan 2014-2018 mid- to long-term plan Difference 1. 2014-2017 average

(trillion won, %)

2014 (A)

2015

2016

2017

2018 (B)

Debt

517

527

528

521

-

Annual average (B/A) 0.3¹

Debt ratio

227

218

203

188

-

-6.1¹

Debt

511

524

526

517

513

0.1

Debt ratio

220

214

200

183

172

-6.0

Debt

-6

-3

-2

-4

-

-

Debt ratio

-7

-4

-3

-5

-

-

Policy Issues

2014-2018 debt reduction outlook for the 40 public institutions that submitted mid- to long-term financial management plans

45

Policy Issues The 4 trillion won debt reduction will be the outcome of 11.8 trillion won in debt reduction and a 7.7 trillion won debt increase, and the debt reduction and increase factors are as follows: - The 11.8 trillion won debt reduction is due to external conditions including foreign exchange rates (-7.6 trillion won), overseas investment adjustment (-0.7 trillion won), changes in accounting standards and other factors (-3.0 trillion won), debt reduction efforts by individual public institutions (-0.5 trillion won).

- The 7.7 trillion won debt increase is due to the introduction of individual consumption taxes on bituminous coal and the carbon dioxide emissions trading system (+2.4 trillion won), and an increase in investment (+ 6.3 trillion won), part of which will be offset by government support and private-sector financing (-1.0 trillion won). The 6.3 trillion won increase in investment is composed of 2.8 trillion won investment in social overhead capital (SOC), energy and safety in 2014-2015, extra investment of 2.2 trillion won in SME and working class support during the same period, and a 1.3 trillion won investment increase in 2016-2017 to stimulate the economy.

46 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Financial soundness in 2018 Public institutions that are recognized as ‘financially sound’ are expected to increase from 12 in 2013 to 17 in 2018, 11 out of which will be among the 16 institutions that have been flagged as ‘highly indebted’ for their excessively high debt levels¹ (excluding the Korea Deposit Insurance Cooperation and the Korea Student Aid Foundation² from the 18 ‘highly indebted’ public institutions that were originally designated).

1. The 16 ‘highly indebted’ institutions refer to the following: Korea Electric Power Corporation (5 power generating companies, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Corporation), Korea Gas Corporation, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Resources Corporation, Korea Coal Corporation, Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH), Korea Water Resources Corporation, Korea Railroad Corporation, Korea Rail Network Authority, Korea Expressway Corporation.

2. The Korea Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Korea Student Aid Foundation are excluded because they provide policy-financing.

The Korea Electric Power Corporation (above) is included among the 16 public institutions that have been flagged as 'highly indebted'. Some of these highly indebted institutions are expected to become financially sound by 2018.

Public institution financial soundness outlook for 2018 Interest coverage ratio (times) 1.0 or more

Debt ratio (%) Below 200%

Companies in the black

17 Companies including Korea Electric Power Corporation

-

Korea Gas Corporation

-

-

Korea Railroad Corporation

LH

-

200% or more Below 1.0

Current net income Companies in the red

Below 200% 200% or more

Korea Rail Network Authority¹, Korea Coal Corporation¹

1. Unable to calculate debt ratio due to zero equity (Korea Rail Network Authority) and equity impairment (Korea Coal Corporation)

LH, the Korea Gas Corporation and other public enterprises that are expected to fail to meet the financial soundness standards are also expected to make improvements in 2018 compared with the 2013 figures.

47 Financial soundness estimates for public institutions expected to fail to meet soundness standards Debt ratio (%) 2013 2018

Current net income (billion won) 2013 2018

Korea Gas Corporation

1.8

2.0

389

220

-203.6

1,223.4

LH

0.7

0.9

458

343

710.9

367.7¹

Korea Railroad Corporation

-0.1

0.5

372

191

-4,331.0

-211.4

Korea Rail Network Authority

0.4

0.9

-

-

-95.8

-86.9

1. LH's net income will decrease in line with a decrease in land sales

Debt issuance The 2014-2018 public institution financial management plan includes a total debt issuance limit for the 16 ‘highly indebted’ public institutions.

Public institution debt issuance as of end-2013

(trillion won, %) Total debt

Financial liability

Bonds repayable

457

365

291

18 highly indebted public enterprises (% to A)

417 (91.2)

332 (91.0)

267 (91.8)

16 highly indebted public enterprises (% to A)

380 (83.2)

280 (76.7)

227 (78.0)

30 public institutions with bonds repayable (A)

Policy Issues

Interest coverage ratio (times) 2013 2018

Policy Issues The government will implement a total debt issuance limit on corporate bonds, structured notes, asset-backed securities and other short-term liabilities including commercial paper and asset backed short-term bonds for the 16 highly indebted public institutions.

The bond repayable to total debt ratio in the 16 highly indebted public institutions will drop by 1 percentage point every year from 62 percent in 2014 to 58 percent in 2018, while bonds repayable will drop from 244 trillion won in 2014 to 237 trillion won in 2018.

Bonds repayable outlook

48

(trillion won) 2014 (A)

2015

2016

2017

2018 (B)

Change (B-A)

16 highly indebted public institutions

244

248

247

240

237

-7

- LH

69.3

68.1

64.4

58.7

57.6

-11.7

- Korea Gas Corporation

26.9

25.7

25.1

23.5

22.1

-4.8

9.8

11.4

11.8

12.1

12.5

2.7

25.3

26.2

27.2

28.1

29.2

3.8

- Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Coporation - Korea Expressway Corporation

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Future plans Public institutions will be required to continue to carry out their individual debt reduction plans by selling assets, scaling down projects and improving management efficiency. Debt reduction performance will be evaluated, and the head of an institution that receives a poor evaluation will have to take responsibility. The next evaluation is in 2015.

The government will require more public institutions to adopt a project-based accounting system that is designed to efficiently manage debt by type. Currently, seven public institutions, including LH, use the accounting system, and six more public institutions will be required to use the accounting system.

Projects worth 50 billion won or more will be subject to an in-depth feasibility study, and the government will introduce an in-depth project performance evaluation. Three projects have been chosen for the in-depth evaluation as model cases.

The limit on total bond issuance will be introduced in 2014, and will be fully implemented beginning in 2015.

Public institutions are required to take into account their bond issuance limits when planning their 2015 budgets, and the government will continue to monitor public institutions’ bonds repayable every quarter to include the outcomes in the management performance evaluation. Public institutions whose bonds repayable exceed the limit will have to reduce bond issuance the next year to maintain bonds repayable below the limit.

The government will continue to look into ways to reduce public institution debt, and at the same time will keep trying to find ways to encourage private-sector investment in public projects.

N

Ec o Ne no ws mi c Br iefi ng

49 E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g

BOK cuts key rate to 2.00% Government to enhance flexible work hour system FDI in Jan-Sep 2014 posts record high COP 12 held in Korea Measures to improve prudential regulations on asset management industry Overseas construction orders rise 5.2% in first nine months of 2014 Follow-up measures for female employment Cultural content firms to receive financial support Measures for addressing weak yen

Economic News Briefing

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-Yeol is banging a gavel during a Monetary Policy Commitee meeting held at the central bank's headquarters on October 15.

50

— BOK cuts key rate to 2.00%

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Korea (BOK) decided on October 15 to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.00 percent. This is the second rate cut in two months, after the central bank lowered its base rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent on August 14. The BOK’s latest move brought the base rate to the lowest since 2010, and aims to address poor growth and low inflation in the nation’s economy.

— Government to enhance flexible work hour system As a follow-up to the measures to promote flexible work hours announced in November 2013, the government has announced 25 action plans to supplement the November 2013 plans. The supplementary measures consist of creating flexible work hour jobs, promoting the transfer from full time to flexible working hours, improving work conditions, and strengthening the foundation for a flexible work hour system.

The ratio of flexible work hour local government officials will be raised by 1 percentage point, and incentives for flexible work hour jobs in the private sector will be increased. To promote the transfer from full time to flexible work hours, the

government will increase public sector flexible hour jobs by allowing 15-35 hour work weeks for civil servants, introducing a flexible work hour teacher system in which full time teachers can transfer to the flexible work hour system, and developing guidelines for the transfer of full time researchers to the flexible work hour system at public institutions.

The government also aims to improve work conditions, by revising social security insurance programs in order to incorporate the flexible work hour system, and by revising retirement benefits to allow full benefits for the flexible work hour system. To strengthen the foundation for the system, the government will develop a manual and release statistics regarding flexible work hours, including wages, social insurance and contract periods, starting in March 2015.

— FDI in Jan-Sep 2014 posts record high Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Korea for the first three quarters of 2014 posted a record high, rising 37.9 percent year-on-year to US $14.82 billion. FDI in manufacturing rose 101.4 percent to US $6.07 billion, and FDI in services rose 11.4 percent to US $8.60 billion. By region, investment from the Greater China Region, EU and US

increased, while investment from Japan decreased. China has recently emerged as a major investor, as investment from the nation in the third quarter rose 230.4 percent year-on-year to US $1.03 billion.

— COP 12 held in Korea The 12th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, also known as COP 12, was held on October 6-17 in Pyeongchang, Gangwon Province. About 20,000 participants from governments, international organizations, NGOs and businesses around the world gathered at Pyeongchang to discuss various issues under the theme ‘Biodiversity for Sustainable Development’.

— Measures to improve prudential regulations on asset management industry The Financial Ser vices Commission (FSC) announced on September 25 measures to improve prudential regulations on the asset management industry. One plan involves the abolishment of net capital ratio (NCR) rules. The NCR has been used as a standard for prompt corrective action imposed on asset management firms as well as

In addition to the NCR rules, the current management evaluation system will also be abolished for the asset management industry.

Instead, operational risk evaluation will be introduced to evaluate asset management companies’ internal control and risk management.

— Overseas construction orders rise 5.2% in first nine months of 2014 Overseas construction orders rose 5.2 percent year-on-year to US $48.3 billion in the first nine months of 2014, the second largest amount for the January-September period. While the Middle East accounted for more than 50 percent of total overseas construction orders in the first three quarters, orders from Latin America and Africa have also been increasing. In the third quarter alone, orders from markets excluding Asia and the Middle East accounted for 46 percent of the total.

— Follow-up measures for female employment The government’s ‘Roadmap to 70 Percent Employment’, announced in June 2013, contained within it a subset of measures aimed at boosting female employment to help reach the government’s 70 percent target. Specifically, the government took measures to encourage women to re-enter the workforce after an absence. However, despite implementing systems that encourage women to

51 E co n o m i c New s B r i e f i n g

The main session was accompanied by side events such as the High Level Segment, Biodiversity Summit, International Symposium on the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and International Symposium on the Nagoya Protocol. At the High Level Segment, a global meeting of environment ministers and heads of international organizations that was held on October 15-16, the delegates adopted the Gangwon Declaration, which acknowledged the importance of conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and the restoration of ecosystems, and welcomed the Peace and Biodiversity Dialogue initiative of Korea.

securities firms, but market participants have claimed that the NCR rules are not appropriate for asset management companies, as the NCR regime is better suited to securities firms’ business models and environment. The FSC will replace the NCR rules with the ‘minimum capital requirement’, which includes regulatory capital requirement, capital requirement for client asset management, and capital requirement for proprietary investments.

S

Economic News Briefing remain employed or seek reemployment after an absence, the number of women taking advantage of these policies remains low, and corporate cultures have been slow to accept new changes. Therefore, the government has decided to take follow-up measures to ensure that policies aimed at female employment have the desired effect and begin to take root in workplaces throughout Korea.

52 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

The follow-up measures focus on expanding access to childcare, strengthening maternity protection, providing job training and creating a family-friendly work culture. Childcare measures involve developing customized childcare support systems for dual-income families, and increasing the number of public daycare centers as well as workplace daycare centers. To strengthen maternity protection, the government will increase support for business owners that offer reduced hours for working parents, and strengthen incentives to promote automatic parental leave. Other measures include promoting job training to open up higherquality jobs for women, and raising awareness regarding a woman’s right to access maternity benefits as early as pregnancy.

— Measures for addressing weak yen The government is contemplating measures to protect the Korean economy from the weakening yen, as the Japanese currency is expected to remain weak in the medium term due to the possibility of interest rate hikes in the US and additional stimulus measures in Japan. For the short term, the government will address the difficulties faced by Korea’s exporters by encouraging those companies to sign up for the exchange rate volatility insurance, as well as providing about 1 trillion won in support in the fourth quarter of 2014. Long term measures involve helping the nation’s exporters to become more competitive and less reliant on the Japanese market. As the weak yen makes Japan’s equipment and skilled labor cheaper, the government will use this as an opportunity to boost the productivity of Korea’s firms.

— Cultural content firms to receive financial support The Small & Medium Business Administration (SMBA) will provide loans to promising content firms starting in October, to aid struggling businesses in the cultural content industry. More than 90 percent of content companies are small businesses, with less than 1 billion won in equity capital and fewer than 10 employees, often making them ineligible for private sector loans.

Starting with a budget of 5 billion won, the SMBA will lend up to 1 billion won per project for up to seven years to companies seeking funding for creating games, music, musicals, animations or characters.

A bank official is examining yen notes at the Korea Exchange Bank on October 13.

1. National accounts

2. Production, shipment and inventory 3. Production capacity and operation ratio 4. Consumer goods sales index 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index 6 Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI 9. Balance of payments (I) 10. Balance of payments (II) 11. Prices 12. Employment 13. Financial indicators 14. Monetary indicators 15. Exchange rates

53 Statistical Appendices

Sta tist App ic a en l dic es

Statistical A ppendic es 1. National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices) Real GDP

Period

54

Agri., fores. & fisheries

Manufacturing

Final consumption expenditure

Gross fixed capital formation Construction

Facilities

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P

3.9 5.2 5.5 2.8 0.7 6.5 3.7 2.3 3.0

1.4 1.6 4.1 5.6 3.2 -4.3 -2.0 -0.9 5.8

5.8 7.7 8.4 3.7 -0.5 13.7 6.5 2.4 3.3

4.4 5.2 5.3 2.2 1.3 4.3 2.7 2.2 2.2

2.0 3.6 5.0 -0.9 0.3 5.5 0.8 -0.5 4.2

-0.1 0.7 1.5 -2.7 3.5 -3.7 -3.4 -3.9 6.7

4.8 8.4 9.7 -0.2 -7.7 22.0 4.7 0.1 -1.5

2005 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.5 3.6 4.5 4.9

0.5 4.8 3.8 -3.1

3.6 4.5 7.0 8.1

2.6 4.5 5.4 5.3

0.6 1.7 2.1 3.3

-2.5 1.1 0.0 0.3

3.7 2.1 4.3 9.1

2006 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6.3 4.7 2.1 4.8

4.1 -0.2 -1.3 4.2

9.6 7.4 8.2 6.1

5.9 5.1 4.7 5.0

3.0 0.7 4.3 5.9

1.7 -4.1 -0.3 5.4

4.6 8.8 13.5 6.8

2007 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.7 5.6 5.1 6.3

1.7 7.0 8.1 -0.6

6.5 8.6 7.4 10.9

5.2 5.6 5.5 5.0

6.6 6.3 2.1 5.2

3.8 2.0 0.0 0.9

10.3 14.2 2.1 12.2

2008 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5.5 4.1 3.9 -1.6

7.7 4.6 4.3 6.4

8.2 7.1 6.1 -5.3

4.7 3.1 2.4 -1.4

1.8 0.9 2.3 -7.0

-2.0 -0.7 0.2 -7.3

7.0 1.4 5.6 -13.0

2009 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-1.9 -1.1 0.9 4.8

2.5 0.0 5.0 5.0

-8.4 -5.7 1.6 10.4

-1.9 0.9 1.7 4.5

-5.4 -1.1 0.8 5.8

1.9 4.4 3.1 4.1

-19.4 -13.6 -5.9 9.5

2010 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

7.2 7.4 5.4 6.0

0.0 -2.2 -7.8 -5.7

16.1 17.2 10.1 11.9

6.2 3.6 3.9 3.4

12.0 6.8 3.8 1.2

1.6 -4.8 -4.8 -5.2

27.6 28.8 20.6 12.9

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

4.9 3.6 3.3 3.1

-9.2 -2.4 -5.8 7.0

11.4 6.5 5.6 3.4

3.3 3.3 2.8 1.7

-0.7 2.5 1.7 -0.3

-8.3 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0

8.2 8.3 3.4 -0.9

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1

-0.3 -2.2 -0.1 -0.7

2.7 2.8 2.0 2.0

2.2 1.3 2.7 2.7

6.2 -2.3 -1.0 -3.4

-0.2 -5.4 -2.7 -6.2

11.1 -1.8 -4.2 -4.0

2013P Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7

0.4 2.9 7.4 9.9

1.8 2.8 3.8 4.5

1.6 2.4 2.3 2.4

-2.6 5.0 5.9 7.8

1.9 9.8 8.8 5.4

-12.7 -3.9 1.5 10.9

2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ

3.9 3.5

7.7 3.4

5.6 5.3

2.6 1.5

5.9 3.4

4.3 0.2

7.3 7.7

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

2. Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2010=100) Period

Production index

Shipment index

y-o-y change(%)

Inventory index

y-o-y change(%)

Service production index

y-o-y change(%)

y-o-y change(%)

106.0 107.4 107.7

6.0 1.3 0.3

105.6 107.2 107.6

5.6 1.5 0.4

119.9 125.2 131.4

15.0 4.4 5.0

103.2 104.8 106.3

3.2 1.6 1.4

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

102.6 107.5 104.0 109.7

9.1 6.2 5.4 3.4

103.4 106.6 103.2 109.3

10.0 5.4 4.7 2.8

104.9 109.8 112.3 119.9

7.8 11.8 11.4 15.0

99.4 103.4 103.2 106.7

2.8 2.7 4.2 3.0

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅲ

106.6 108.9 103.7 110.6

3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.8

106.6 108.4 103.8 109.8

3.1 1.7 0.6 0.5

117.7 114.8 114.5 125.2

12.2 4.6 2.0 4.4

102.0 104.9 104.8 107.6

2.6 1.5 1.6 0.8

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

105.7 108.9 103.9 112.5

-0.8 0.0 0.2 1.9

105.7 108.9 104.0 111.8

-0.8 0.5 0.2 2.0

123.1 119.4 125.0 131.4

4.6 4.0 9.2 6.2

102.9 106.7 105.6 109.9

0.9 1.7 0.8 2.1

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ

106.4 109.2

0.7 0.3

105.9 108.7

0.2 -0.2

130.1 128.6

5.7 7.7

104.9 108.2

1.9 1.4

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

102.0 106.1 111.6 106.8 110.7 109.2 106.0 100.3 104.7 108.8 112.6 110.3

-3.1 15.3 0.9 0.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -0.8 3.0 0.1

102.8 106.1 111.0 106.2 109.9 109.2 105.2 99.9 106.2 108.2 111.0 110.1

-2.8 13.5 0.1 -0.6 3.7 2.0 1.0 -1.4 1.9 -0.9 2.6 -0.3

119.3 117.4 117.7 116.5 118.2 114.8 115.4 119.3 114.5 116.1 121.3 125.2

14.2 14.1 12.2 10.2 8.8 4.6 3.2 6.5 2.0 0.6 3.1 4.4

100.3 99.9 105.7 102.8 105.9 105.9 104.8 103.9 105.7 104.7 105.5 112.7

0.3 6.2 1.5 0.7 2.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 2.2 0.5 1.5 0.7

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

110.9 96.9 109.2 109.1 110.2 107.4 107.5 103.5 100.7 112.7 111.8 113.0

8.7 -8.7 -2.2 2.2 -0.5 -1.6 1.4 3.2 -3.8 3.6 -0.7 2.4

109.5 97.8 109.8 108.8 109.8 108.1 106.6 104.4 100.9 112.0 111.3 112.1

6.5 -7.8 -1.1 2.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 4.5 -5.0 3.5 0.3 1.8

128.3 124.6 123.1 121.0 122.2 119.4 124.2 123.8 125.0 126.9 129.2 131.4

7.5 6.1 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.0 7.6 3.8 9.2 9.3 6.5 5.0

102.1 100.2 106.4 105.4 107.7 107.0 105.6 105.6 105.5 107.7 107.4 114.7

1.8 0.3 0.7 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.6 -0.2 2.9 1.8 1.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

106.1 100.7 112.3 111.8 107.9 107.9 111.7 100.6

-4.3 3.9 2.8 2.5 -2.1 0.5 3.9 -2.8

104.5 100.8 112.5 110.8 108.1 107.3 108.8 101.0

-4.6 3.1 2.5 1.8 -1.5 -0.7 2.1 -3.3

133.1 129.3 130.1 131.3 129.8 128.6 133.0 130.2

3.7 3.8 5.7 8.5 6.2 7.7 7.1 5.2

104.3 101.3 109.0 106.4 108.5 109.7 108.5 107.8

2.2 1.1 2.4 0.9 0.7 2.5 2.7 2.1

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

55 Statistical Appendices

2011 2012 2013

Statistical A ppendic es 3. Production capacity and operation ratio Period

56

Production capacity index (2010=100)

Operation ratio index (2010=100)

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Average operation ratio (%)

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2011 2012 2013

104.7 106.9 108.7

4.7 2.1 1.7

100.2 97.5 94.8

0.2 -2.7 -2.8

80.5 78.5 76.2

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.5 104.5 105.0 105.6

5.7 5.1 4.3 3.5

97.8 103.5 97.7 101.9

2.2 0.8 0.1 -2.0

81.4 80.6 80.9 79.1

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

106.3 106.7 107.0 107.5

2.7 2.1 1.9 1.8

97.5 101.0 93.2 98.3

-0.3 -2.4 -4.6 -3.5

79.9 79.5 76.6 78.0

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

108.2 108.4 108.9 109.3

1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7

93.3 97.4 90.5 97.9

-4.3 -3.6 -2.9 -0.4

77.3 75.9 75.1 76.5

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ

109.5 109.7

1.2 1.2

92.5 96.8

-0.9 -0.6

77.2 76.3

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

106.2 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.7 107.2 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.6

2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.9

92.5 97.2 102.9 98.9 102.6 101.4 97.2 88.3 94.1 98.1 100.7 96.1

-8.0 11.3 -2.6 -3.6 -0.6 -3.1 -3.5 -6.9 -3.6 -4.6 -1.7 -4.5

80.0 80.4 79.2 79.6 79.9 78.9 78.4 74.3 77.2 77.4 78.3 78.2

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.1 108.2 108.2 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.7 109.0 109.0 109.1 109.3 109.6

1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9

98.5 84.5 96.8 97.4 99.0 95.9 94.3 90.4 86.7 99.2 97.9 96.7

6.5 -13.1 -5.9 -1.5 -3.5 -5.4 -3.0 2.4 -7.9 1.1 -2.8 0.6

78.8 77.1 75.9 75.9 75.9 75.9 74.8 76.3 74.3 76.2 76.2 77.2

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

109.6 109.5 109.5 109.5 109.7 109.8 110.2 110.5

1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4

91.6 87.2 98.7 99.8 95.6 95.1 98.5 86.4

-7.0 3.2 2.0 2.5 -3.4 -0.8 4.5 -4.4

78.2 75.8 77.5 77.8 74.6 76.4 78.2 74.0

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

4. Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2010=100) Consumer goods sales index Period

y-o-y change (%)

Durable goods y-o-y change (%)

Semi-durable goods y-o-y change (%)

Nondurable goods y-o-y change (%)

104.5 107.0 107.9

4.5 2.4 0.8

110.6 116.2 116.6

10.6 5.3 0.3

103.7 103.8 105.9

3.7 -0.4 2.0

102.1 104.1 104.7

2.1 2.0 0.6

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.7 104.8 103.7 108.9

5.3 6.2 4.0 2.6

105.4 112.2 111.4 113.3

11.5 16.9 10.3 4.4

98.3 105.5 94.2 116.7

5.1 5.2 3.6 1.2

99.6 101.2 104.4 103.3

2.7 2.0 1.5 2.4

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.4 106.4 106.5 111.6

2.8 1.4 2.7 2.5

109.4 114.9 118.4 122.0

4.0 2.6 6.4 8.3

99.0 105.5 92.3 118.4

0.6 -0.5 -2.3 0.5

102.6 102.8 107.2 103.8

3.1 1.7 2.8 0.5

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

103.7 107.7 107.2 112.9

0.3 1.2 0.7 1.2

110.9 118.2 116.8 120.2

1.4 2.9 -1.4 -1.5

101.7 107.2 95.0 119.6

2.7 1.6 2.9 1.0

101.2 103.0 108.0 106.7

-1.4 0.2 0.7 2.8

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ

106.3 108.5

2.5 0.7

117.5 121.2

6.0 2.5

99.9 104.6

-1.8 -2.4

103.9 104.3

2.7 1.3

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.5 97.8 105.0 103.0 110.1 106.1 108.2 102.3 109.1 109.0 111.6 114.3

2.1 5.5 1.1 0.4 2.6 1.2 3.8 1.3 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.1

107.2 107.2 113.7 107.3 117.3 120.0 125.6 114.0 115.7 117.1 123.1 125.9

3.3 9.8 -0.4 1.0 4.4 2.2 7.4 4.0 7.6 8.0 6.5 10.6

104.7 91.9 100.4 104.8 111.4 100.3 97.3 82.1 97.6 114.8 118.8 121.5

-0.2 2.0 0.1 -1.3 0.8 -0.9 0.9 -5.1 -3.0 -2.0 5.1 -1.4

108.8 96.0 102.9 100.1 106.1 102.1 104.9 105.7 111.1 102.7 103.0 105.8

2.4 4.8 2.2 0.8 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 -0.5

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.6 99.5 107.0 105.3 110.8 106.9 109.2 104.6 107.7 111.2 113.1 114.5

-2.7 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 2.2 -1.3 2.0 1.3 0.2

112.2 105.9 114.7 115.0 119.5 120.2 127.4 116.3 106.8 120.4 120.2 120.0

4.7 -1.2 0.9 7.2 1.9 0.2 1.4 2.0 -7.7 2.8 -2.4 -4.7

102.9 93.1 109.2 106.4 113.8 101.5 98.1 87.1 99.9 113.6 123.5 121.8

-1.7 1.3 8.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 0.8 6.1 2.4 -1.0 4.0 0.2

101.7 99.3 102.5 100.3 105.5 103.1 105.5 106.9 111.6 105.9 105.3 108.8

-6.5 3.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.5 3.1 2.2 2.8

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

110.5 99.1 109.3 105.5 112.0 108.0 109.9 106.8

5.6 -0.4 2.1 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 2.1

116.8 117.1 118.6 114.1 121.7 127.6 131.2 118.3

4.1 10.6 3.4 -0.8 1.8 6.2 3.0 1.7

100.2 91.6 107.9 105.4 111.3 97.2 95.4 91.0

-2.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.9 -2.2 -4.2 -2.8 4.5

112.1 94.0 105.5 101.5 107.8 103.6 106.3 108.4

10.2 -5.3 2.9 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.8 1.4

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

57 Statistical Appendices

2011 2012 2013

Statistical A ppendic es 5. Consumer goods shipment index and consumer sentiment index Domestic consumer goods shipment index (2010=100) Durable goods

Period

58

y-o-y change (%)

Nondurable goods

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Consumer sentiment index

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2011 2012 2013

100.9 102.5 101.9

0.9 1.6 -0.6

100.3 102.8 103.1

0.3 2.5 0.3

101.2 102.4 101.4

1.2 1.2 -1.0

-

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

101.0 97.9 101.5 103.3

4.6 0.9 0.8 -2.2

99.5 100.7 100.9 100.1

3.8 3.1 -0.1 -5.0

101.6 96.8 101.7 104.6

4.7 0.2 1.1 -1.1

-

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

100.8 99.9 103.5 106.0

-0.2 2.0 2.0 2.6

97.8 99.1 102.5 112.0

-1.7 -1.6 1.6 11.9

102.0 100.2 103.9 103.4

0.4 3.5 2.2 -1.1

-

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

102.8 98.4 102.1 104.5

2.0 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4

108.0 100.6 102.3 101.5

10.4 1.5 -0.2 -9.4

100.5 97.4 101.9 105.8

-1.5 -2.8 -1.9 2.3

-

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ

100.4 99.9

-2.3 1.5

103.2 102.7

-4.4 2.1

99.2 98.8

-1.3 1.4

-

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

100.6 98.6 103.1 99.2 101.6 98.9 102.8 101.5 106.1 106.6 105.7 105.7

-7.0 10.9 -2.6 0.9 5.9 -0.6 2.4 -0.8 4.3 1.7 4.7 1.5

92.5 98.3 102.5 94.1 100.4 102.8 105.3 98.4 103.9 108.5 110.9 116.5

-8.3 6.0 -2.4 -3.6 1.2 -2.4 0.7 0.1 4.1 8.0 12.0 15.5

104.0 98.7 103.3 101.3 102.1 97.3 101.8 102.9 107.0 105.7 103.5 101.1

-6.6 13.1 -2.6 2.6 8.0 0.2 3.4 -1.1 4.4 -0.8 1.6 -4.1

98 102 102 106 106 101 100 101 99 100 100 99

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

108.4 96.7 103.2 99.1 99.3 96.7 103.2 103.7 99.3 108.7 102.8 102.0

7.8 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 2.2 -6.4 2.0 -2.7 -3.5

110.4 106.1 107.6 97.9 101.3 102.6 108.8 103.6 94.6 104.3 102.9 97.4

19.4 7.9 5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.2 3.3 5.3 -9.0 -3.9 -7.2 -16.4

107.5 92.6 101.3 99.6 98.5 94.1 100.8 103.7 101.3 110.6 102.7 104.0

3.4 -6.2 -1.9 -1.7 -3.5 -3.3 -1.0 0.8 -5.3 4.6 -0.8 2.8

102 102 104 102 104 105 105 105 102 106 107 107

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P 9

102.2 96.3 102.6 101.2 99.6 98.9 104.1 99.3 -

-5.7 -0.4 -0.6 2.1 0.3 2.3 0.9 -4.2 -

99.8 106.5 103.3 97.8 103.4 106.7 106.8 94.1 -

-9.6 0.4 -4.0 -0.1 2.1 4.0 -1.8 -9.2 -

103.3 91.9 102.3 102.7 97.9 95.5 103.0 101.5 -

-3.9 -0.8 1.0 3.1 -0.6 1.5 2.2 -2.1 -

109 108 108 108 105 107 105 107 107

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

6. Machinery orders received and estimated facility investment index Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total

Period

2011 2012 2013

Public

y-o-y change (%)

Private

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Estimated facility investment index y-o-y (2010=100)

change (%)

7.6 -13.9 6.7

2,407 2,142 2,580

-2.6 -11.0 20.5

22,741 19,506 20,524

8.8 -14.2 5.2

103.5 100.6 99.3

3.5 -2.8 -1.3

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,383 6,723 5,666 6,376

15.3 9.6 -0.7 6.4

358 708 310 1,031

-36.7 83.1 -18.6 -9.5

6,025 6,015 5,356 5,345

21.2 4.6 0.6 10.1

97.0 109.4 104.5 103.0

5.2 7.4 3.2 -1.4

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

6,310 5,391 5,036 4,910

-1.1 -19.8 -11.1 -23.0

810 285 579 468

126.1 -59.7 86.7 -54.6

5,500 5,106 4,458 4,442

-8.7 -15.1 -16.8 -16.9

105.0 104.8 96.2 96.4

8.2 -4.2 -7.9 -6.4

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

5,592 5,867 5,148 6,498

-11.4 8.8 2.2 32.4

429 554 522 1,075

-47.0 94.2 -9.7 129.7

5,163 5,313 4,625 5,423

-6.1 4.0 3.8 22.1

91.2 100.6 98.8 106.4

-13.1 -4.0 2.7 10.4

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ

6,594 6,126

17.9 4.4

1,221 305

184.6 -45.0

5,373 5,821

4.1 9.6

96.6 106.8

5.9 6.2

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,933 2,541 1,836 1,845 1,830 1,716 1,835 1,509 1,693 1,511 1,656 1,743

-0.8 25.1 -23.6 -4.4 -14.4 -35.4 -9.4 -14.2 -10 -22.5 -27.8 -18.3

52 695 63 56 39 190 310 169 100 86 127 255

-22.2 829.0 -70.9 -10.3 -72.8 -62.2 135.5 105.9 3.5 -72.3 -75.8 31.2

1,881 1,846 1,773 1,789 1,791 1,526 1,525 1,339 1,593 1,425 1,529 1,488

0.0 -5.7 -18.9 -4.3 -10.2 -29.1 -19.5 -20.1 -10.7 -13.1 -13.5 -23.3

97.7 109.1 108.2 106.2 105.8 102.3 105.4 90.1 93.1 94.5 92.4 102.2

5.6 26.4 -3.5 3.0 -4.9 -10.2 -1.6 -16.5 -5.5 1.1 -10 -9.3

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,847 1,666 2,079 1,846 2,127 1,894 1,935 1,623 1,589 2,606 2,109 1,784

-4.4 -34.4 13.2 0 16.2 10.4 5.5 7.6 -6.1 72.4 27.4 2.4

139 168 121 92 250 212 359 92 71 788 163 124

169.8 -75.8 92.2 63.8 542.9 11.5 15.8 -45.4 -28.5 815.4 28.2 -51.4

1,708 1,498 1,957 1,754 1,877 1,682 1,576 1,531 1,518 1,818 1,946 1,660

-9.2 -18.8 10.4 -2.0 4.8 10.2 3.4 14.3 -4.7 27.5 27.3 11.6

89.8 83.5 100.4 98.2 101.6 102.0 108.0 100.1 88.2 108.9 101.4 108.9

-8.1 -23.5 -7.2 -7.5 -4 -0.3 2.5 11.1 -5.3 15.2 9.7 6.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

1,716 1,848 3,029 2,283 1,842 2,001 1,802 4,117

-7.1 10.9 45.7 23.7 -13.4 5.7 -6.9 153.6

88 120 1,013 97 116 92 89 2,541

-36.9 -28.8 735.6 5.1 -53.4 -56.7 -75.3 2653.2

1,628 1,728 2,016 2,187 1,726 1,910 1,713 1,576

-4.7 15.4 3.0 24.7 -8.1 13.6 8.7 2.9

88.4 93.8 107.6 108.7 107.2 104.4 111.0 90.3

-1.6 12.3 7.2 10.7 5.5 2.4 2.8 -9.8

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

59 Statistical Appendices

25,148 21,648 23,105

Statistical A ppendic es 7. Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received (current value, billion won) Period

60

Value of construction y-o-y completed change (Total) (%)

Type of order Public

Private y-o-y change (%)

Domestic construction y-o-y orders change received y-o-y (%) (Total) change (%)

Type of order Public

Private y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2011 2012 2013

91,717 88,713 97,938

-0.6 35,120 -3.3 33,807 10.4 34,532

-0.1 -3.7 2.1

51,663 50,622 59,492

-2.2 -2.0 17.5

95,332 89,395 75,644

6.1 -6.2 -15.4

28,624 26,071 24,574

-2.0 -8.9 -5.7

61,839 59,811 48,888

12.3 -3.3 -18.3

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

19,277 24,057 21,423 26,960

-5.2 7,322 -0.1 9,290 -2.7 7,684 4.4 10,825

-2.1 1.8 -1.5 0.7

11,031 13,339 12,597 14,696

-7.9 -4.3 -4.3 6.9

16,335 25,319 20,444 33,233

-11.5 -0.9 5.6 25.5

4,119 6,311 6,711 11,483

-49.0 -8.4 -1.4 54.5

11,107 17,653 12,871 20,209

20.3 4.7 12.1 15.4

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

19,275 22,410 21,351 25,676

0.0 -6.8 -0.3 -4.8

7,442 8,892 7,598 9,876

1.6 -4.3 -1.1 -8.8

10,893 12,440 12,676 14,613

-1.2 -6.7 0.6 -0.6

22,671 25,732 18,395 22,596

38.8 1.6 -10.0 -32.0

5,655 5,570 5,401 9,443

37.3 -11.7 -19.5 -17.8

16,309 19,100 12,522 11,877

46.8 8.2 -2.7 -41.2

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

20,145 25,707 23,679 28,407

4.5 7,005 14.7 9,345 10.9 8,083 10.6 10,099

-5.9 5.1 6.4 2.3

12,375 15,377 14,674 17,066

13.6 23.6 15.8 16.8

13,425 18,143 16,454 27,621

-40.8 -29.5 -10.6 22.2

4,289 5,348 4,910 10,025

-24.1 -4.0 -9.1 6.2

8,781 12,108 11,165 16,832

-46.2 -36.6 -10.8 41.7

2014 Ⅰ Ⅱ

21,626 26,116

7.4 1.6

7,144 8,697

2.0 -6.9

13,630 16,470

10.1 7.1

15,501 22,881

15.5 26.1

5,968 6,578

39.1 23.0

9,102 16,002

3.6 32.2

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

5,796 6,035 7,444 6,844 7,307 8,259 7,037 6,582 7,732 7,343 8,098 10,235

-6.3 13.2 -4.1 -4.5 -1.8 -12.6 4.2 -4.6 -0.5 -7.8 3.0 -8.1

2,123 2,373 2,945 2,644 2,873 3,374 2,372 2,322 2,904 2,591 3,003 4,282

-12.9 17.0 3.1 -3.6 3.0 -10.2 -0.3 -5.6 2.1 -10.7 -5.3 -9.9

3,373 3,405 4,115 3,903 4,106 4,431 4,281 3,943 4,452 4,452 4,773 5,387

-3.3 11.3 -8.2 -4.0 -3.4 -11.8 5.4 -3.8 0.3 -4.7 11.2 -6.0

7,468 8,488 6,714 6,428 7,310 11,993 6,823 5,390 6,181 5,800 7,239 9,556

52.0 108.1 -8.6 -4.2 2.3 4.6 32.3 -28.8 -19.9 -22.6 -19.9 -42.8

2,034 2,218 1,402 1,453 1,061 3,056 2,304 1,316 1,780 1,970 2,105 5,366

54.6 57.5 0.6 1.7 -43.9 2.2 24.2 -12.5 -46.9 -14.9 -29.5 -13.1

5,269 81.4 6,121 144.1 4,918 -13.6 4,461 -3.6 6,133 29.4 8,505 2.7 4,329 39.9 4,032 -30.3 4,161 4.2 3,787 -24.1 4,798 -18.3 3,290 -64.8

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

6,266 6,222 7,657 8,089 8,142 9,476 7,839 7,657 8,183 8,628 9,083 10,696

8.1 3.1 2.9 18.2 11.4 14.7 11.4 16.3 5.8 17.5 12.2 4.5

2,072 2,345 2,589 2,839 2,805 3,700 2,643 2,561 2,878 2,958 3,124 4,017

-2.4 -1.2 -12.1 7.4 -2.4 9.7 11.5 10.3 -0.9 14.2 4.0 -6.2

3,956 3,650 4,769 4,954 5,062 5,361 4,885 4,810 4,979 5,329 5,625 6,112

17.3 7.2 15.9 26.9 23.3 21.0 14.1 22.0 11.8 19.7 17.8 13.5

3,546 4,431 5,447 4,946 6,073 7,124 5,675 4,708 6,070 7,346 7,895 12,379

-52.5 -47.8 -18.9 -23.1 -16.9 -40.6 -16.8 -12.6 -1.8 26.7 9.1 29.5

1,289 1,287 1,713 1,558 1,559 2,231 1,412 1,493 2,004 1,500 2,648 5,877

-36.6 -42.0 22.1 7.2 47.0 -27.0 -38.7 13.5 12.6 -23.9 25.8 9.5

2,108 2,992 3,680 2,962 4,393 4,753 4,153 3,171 3,840 5,756 5,004 6,070

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7P 8P

7,034 6,654 7,938 8,457 8,173 9,486 7,910 7,744

12.3 6.9 3.7 4.6 0.4 0.1 0.8 1.1

2,310 2,207 2,627 2,737 2,580 3,380 2,408 2,295

11.5 4,434 -5.9 4,226.0 1.5 4,971.0 -3.6 5,445 -8.0 5,302 -8.7 5,723 -8.9 5,156 -10.4 5,154

12.1 15.8 4.2 9.9 4.8 6.7 5.5 7.2

5,300 5,393 4,807 7,290 6,427 9,163 6,902 8,445

49.5 21.7 -11.8 47.4 5.8 28.6 21.6 79.3

2,102 2,242 1,625 1,892 2,000 2,686 1,555 1,651

62.9 74.2 -5.2 21.4 28.3 20.4 10.1 10.5

P: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

-60.0 -51.1 -25.2 -33.6 -28.4 -44.1 -4.1 -21.4 -7.7 52.0 4.3 84.5

3,026 43.5 3,001 0.3 3,075 -16.4 5,388 81.9 4,359 -0.8 6,256 31.6 5,281 27.1 6,605 108.3

8. Composite indices of business cycle indicators and BSI Cyclical indicator of leading index (2010=100)

Coincident index (2010=100)

Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2010=100)

BSI (results)

BSI (prospects)

2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

101.2 101.5 101.6 101.3 101.6 102.1 102.5 102.8 103.0 103.1 103.1 103.4

100.8 100.7 100.4 99.6 99.4 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.7 98.3 98.1

103.3 103.4 104.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.5 106.5 106.9 106.8 107.2

101.1 100.9 101.0 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.0 101.0 100.5 100.5

99.1 92.2 107.8 98.4 98.9 99.6 96.2 86.8 96.4 95.0 93.0 90.1

101.8 98.0 113.5 99.3 104.3 104.3 101.3 98.9 96.3 101.4 96.4 94.8

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.2 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.5 107.5 107.9 108.0 107.8 108.1 108.8 109.5

98.5 99.2 99.2 99.4 99.1 99.7 99.8 99.5 98.9 98.8 99.1 99.4

107.3 108.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.2 109.9 109.8 110.3 110.2 110.8 111.4

100.2 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.2 100.5 100.0 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.0

88.6 92.2 101.4 97.5 95.7 90.4 82.1 84.4 89.3 88.9 82.2 87.0

88.3 91.0 106.1 98.4 104.7 98.3 89.7 82.7 99.5 97.0 92.5 82.0

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

109.8 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.0 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.6 115.3 116.2 117.0

99.2 99.2 99.3 99.5 99.7 100.3 100.5 100.7 100.4 100.8 101.1 101.5

111.7 112.2 112.3 112.9 113.2 113.9 114.3 114.9 115.1 115.7 116.1 116.7

100.0 100.0 99.7 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.4

85.0 83.0 101.3 94.1 97.6 95.0 91.1 89.8 93.0 94.7 91.9 90.5

85.7 86.7 104.4 101.5 99.8 97.2 90.7 92.7 94.4 101.1 94.7 92.6

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

117.6 118.0 118.2 118.8 119.1 119.8 120.3 121.7 -

101.6 101.5 101.3 101.5 101.3 101.6 101.6 102.4 -

117.5 117.9 118.4 118.5 118.5 118.9 119.5 120.3 -

100.7 100.6 100.7 100.4 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.5 -

89.4 87.0 100.7 95.8 93.0 91.3 90.8 89.0 92.3 -

93.4 88.7 104.4 99.5 101.7 94.5 94.0 91.6 93.1 100.7

Sources: Statistics Korea, The Bank of Korea

61 Statistical Appendices

Leading index (2010=100)

Period

Statistical A ppendic es 9. Balance of payments (I) (US $ million) Current account

Goods

2011 2012 2013

18,655.8 50,835.0 79,883.6

29,089.9 49,406.0 80,568.6

587,099.7 603,509.2 617,127.6

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-3,769.1 -1,921.2 11,994.5 12,351.6

2,453.6 2,520.5 11,435.4 12,680.4

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-746.0 11,605.1 16,886.8 23,089.1

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

Services

Primary income

Secondary income

558,009.8 554,103.2 536,559.0

-12,279.1 -5,213.6 -7,927.4

6,560.6 12,116.7 11,424.8

-4,715.6 -5,474.1 -4,182.3

133,839.7 150,171.3 150,723.9 152,364.8

131,386.1 147,650.8 139,288.5 139,684.4

-4,746.0 -3,468.8 -2,163.6 -1,900.7

-195.2 372.1 3,723.5 2,660.2

-1,281.5 -1,345.0 -1,000.8 -1,088.3

1,661.5 8,535.0 15,894.6 23,314.9

144,260.1 150,834.0 149,619.5 158,795.6

142,598.6 142,299.0 133,724.9 135,480.7

-2,970.8 172.0 -679.8 -1,735.0

2,045.3 3,942.3 2,972.2 3,156.9

-1,482.0 -1,044.2 -1,300.2 -1,647.7

10,458.1 20,804.7 23,782.0 24,838.8

12,075.8 19,998.5 23,876.5 24,617.8

146,933.9 153,981.4 153,754.8 162,457.5

134,858.1 133,982.9 129,878.3 137,839.7

-3,512.2 -409.8 -2,062.7 -1,942.7

2,782.6 1,835.0 3,162.8 3,644.4

-888.1 -619.0 -1,194.6 -1,480.6

2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ

15,070.7 24,125.2

17,745.2 26,428.1

152,688.6 159,385.4

134,943.4 132,957.3

-3,618.6 -1,953.9

1,905.8 1,330.9

-961.7 -1,679.9

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-2,151.2 -2,409.5 3,814.7 87.8 5,265.5 6,251.8 8,413.0 1,808.7 6,665.1 7,494.2 8,293.6 7,301.3

-1,727.4 -863.1 4,252.0 -222.9 3,387.9 5,370.0 7,529.7 2,118.1 6,246.8 7,472.8 8,580.9 7,261.2

44,738.1 48,304.2 51,217.8 49,330.2 50,854.0 50,649.8 51,530.7 47,379.6 50,709.2 53,409.2 54,492.4 50,894.0

46,465.5 49,167.3 46,965.8 49,553.1 47,466.1 45,279.8 44,001.0 45,261.5 44,462.4 45,936.4 45,911.5 43,632.8

-1,017.2 -2,018.3 64.7 288.4 545.9 -662.3 110.0 -844.3 54.5 -415.4 -833.9 -485.7

1,243.3 873.2 -71.2 364.5 1,660.1 1,917.7 1,260.7 965.2 746.3 867.8 988.6 1,300.5

-649.9 -401.3 -430.8 -342.2 -328.4 -373.6 -487.4 -430.3 -382.5 -431.0 -442.0 -774.7

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,969.3 2,146.5 6,342.3 4,552.9 9,752.2 6,499.6 7,985.1 7,198.0 8,598.9 11,107.9 6,854.8 6,876.1

2,855.2 2,733.1 6,487.5 5,103.3 9,591.6 5,303.6 7,911.7 7,378.1 8,586.7 9,816.8 8,175.6 6,625.4

51,027.4 44,778.4 51,128.1 51,587.2 53,548.1 48,846.1 53,353.6 49,839.2 50,562.0 56,702.8 52,756.9 52,997.8

48,172.2 42,045.3 44,640.6 46,483.9 43,956.5 43,542.5 45,441.9 42,461.1 41,975.3 46,886.0 44,581.3 46,372.4

-1,783.5 -1,394.1 -334.6 5.7 -298.2 -117.3 -1,058.1 -805.9 -198.7 393.5 -1,923.2 -413.0

1,434.6 1,035.1 312.9 -354.1 670.3 1,518.8 1,396.1 912.4 854.3 1,260.6 1,010.9 1,372.9

-537.0 -227.6 -123.5 -202.0 -211.5 -205.5 -264.6 -286.6 -643.4 -363.0 -408.5 -709.1

2014P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

3,285.3 4,499.1 7,286.3 7,124.7 9,080.8 7,919.7 7,843.3 7,274.0

4,367.0 5,403.4 7,974.8 10,648.0 9,133.5 6,646.6 6,794.4 7,444.5

50,599.8 47,993.3 54,095.5 56,721.4 52,383.0 50,281.0 53,811.7 49,005.4

46,232.8 42,589.9 46,120.7 46,073.4 43,249.5 43,634.4 47,017.3 41,560.9

-1,912.1 -1,058.7 -647.8 -1,042.8 -336.1 -575.0 -7.4 -732.6

1,211.4 371.8 322.6 -1,619.7 725.1 2,225.5 1,488.8 1,048.0

-381.0 -217.4 -363.3 -860.8 -441.8 -337.4 -432.5 -485.9

Period

62 E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

Exports

Imports

10. Balance of payments (II) (US $ million) Capital transfers & acquisition of Reserve assets nonfinancial assets

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

Financial derivatives

Other investment

2011 2012 2013

-24,315.8 -51,582.4 -76,881.1

-19,931.7 -21,136.2 -16,951.5

13,142.7 6,747.8 -8,287.1

-1,031.3 2,627.8 3,839.7

-2,542.7 -26,637.3 -41,003.7

-112.0 -41.7 -27.8

-13,952.8 -13,184.5 -14,478.5

2011 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

3,231.1 -8.5 -11,957.3 -15,581.1

-4,872.2 -5,028.1 -4,652.9 -5,378.5

-472.1 4,043.3 8,344.5 1,227.0

922.4 -160.6 -1,535.5 -257.6

11,172.4 3,754.9 -20,439.5 2,969.5

-30.0 -9.7 -5.4 -66.9

-3,519.4 -2,618.0 6,326.1 -14,141.5

2012 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-4,564.4 -4,278.7 -18,096.1 -24,643.2

-7,579.6 -4,057.3 -5,705.4 -3,793.9

14,759.6 -6,803.0 4,177.7 -5,386.5

1,198.5 -270.6 595.3 1,104.6

-6,495.1 6,181.1 -13,247.2 -13,076.1

-19.2 -6.7 -9.0 -6.8

-6,447.8 671.1 -3,916.5 -3,491.3

2013 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ

-11,560.0 -16,194.8 -23,107.8 -26,018.5

-5,148.2 -3,297.9 -3,988.6 -4,516.8

-6,461.9 -8,919.2 8,996.0 -1,902.0

1,418.9 -604.6 1,694.0 1,331.4

2,562.0 -7,439.0 -23,231.0 -12,895.7

-3.5 -27.5 12.8 -9.6

-3,930.8 4,065.9 -6,578.2 -8,035.4

2014P Ⅰ Ⅱ

-17177.8 -24,208.1

-3,657.7 -7,552.9

-13,596.7 -5,867.2

892.6 2,083.5

6,207.4 -1,701.9

-2.1 -4.3

-7,023.4 -11,169.6

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-1,295.1 435.0 -3,704.3 1,566.7 -2,645.3 -3,200.1 -9,113.6 -3,219.3 -5,763.2 -7,172.4 -9,211.9 -8,258.9

-2,022.6 -3,631.3 -1,925.7 -1,225.9 -1,687.4 -1,144.0 -1,695.4 -1,719.8 -2,290.2 -1,001.3 -1,599.7 -1,192.9

7,904.1 6,238.0 617.5 -3,114.3 -1,893.6 -1,795.1 1,730.8 646.6 1,800.3 -4,742.4 -3,886.7 3,242.6

452.6 245.8 500.1 215.0 -480.7 -4.9 358.8 -35.5 272.0 -137.8 631.8 610.6

-5,167.1 -190.9 -1,137.1 5,832.0 147.6 201.5 -8,171.9 -1,016.0 -4,059.3 185.2 -1,759.5 -11,501.8

-9.6 -5.8 -3.8 0.3 -1.0 -6.0 -5.5 -1.9 -1.6 -4.9 0.7 -2.6

-2,462.1 -2,226.6 -1,759.1 -140.1 1,268.8 -457.6 -1,335.9 -1,094.6 -1,486.0 -1,476.1 -2,597.8 582.6

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-3,288.5 -3,297.9 -4,973.6 -1,908.3 -9,945.6 -4,340.9 -9,155.6 -7,937.6 -6,014.6 -9,880.0 -8,399.9 -7,738.6

-1,631.9 -1,145.9 -2,370.4 -21.0 -1,659.7 -1,617.2 -1,301.4 -1,275.8 -1,411.4 -296.1 -2,303.1 -1,917.6

-5,226.0 2,023.2 -3,259.1 -1,873.5 -1,091.4 -5,954.3 1,825.5 1,435.1 5,735.4 4,467.7 -1,522.8 -4,846.9

586.9 686.9 145.1 -313.2 649.2 -940.6 443.3 218.1 1,032.6 713.1 14.0 604.3

3,380.1 -2,870.9 2,052.8 -643.1 -6,804.3 8.4 -8,131.5 -6,631.3 -8,468.2 -10,064.8 -1,742.0 -1,088.9

-8.0 -3.3 7.8 -1.4 -11.2 -14.9 1.1 18.2 -6.5 -2.0 0.0 -7.6

-397.6 -1,991.2 -1,542.0 942.5 -1,039.4 4,162.8 -1,991.5 -1,683.7 -2,903.0 -4,699.9 -2,846.0 -489.5

2014P 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

-4,477.0 -6,920.5 -5,780.3 -6,238.8 -8,132.4 -9,836.9 -5,916.9 -7,802.4

529.9 -2,163.5 -2,024.1 -2,157.8 -3,338.8 -2,056.3 -1,011.5 -749.5

-4,193.1 -7,394.4 -2,009.2 1,662.3 -3,311.0 -4,218.5 -1,743.7 504.4

155.5 223.1 514.0 858.1 534.5 690.9 504.1 557.7

1,937.4 4,739.0 -469.0 -5,935.6 3,950.6 283.1 -338.1 -7,288.1

-3.0 3.5 -2.6 2.6 -4.3 -2.6 -6.3 11.2

-2,906.7 -2,324.7 -1,792.0 -665.8 -5,967.7 -4,536.1 -3,327.7 -826.9

P: Preliminary Source: The Bank of Korea

63 Statistical Appendices

Capital & financial account

Period

Statistical A ppendic es 11. Prices (2010=100) Consumer Prices Period

All Items

Commodity

y-o-y change (%)

64

Producer prices

Services

y-o-y change (%)

Core

y-o-y change (%)

All Items

y-o-y change (%)

Commodity

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

2011 2012 2013

104.0 106.3 107.7

4.0 2.2 1.3

105.7 108.9 110.1

5.7 3.0 1.0

102.7 104.2 105.8

2.7 1.4 1.5

103.2 104.9 106.6

3.2 1.6 1.6

106.7 107.5 105.7

6.7 0.7 -1.6

108.7 108.9 106.2

8.7 0.2 -2.5

2011 7 8 9 10 11 12

104.3 105.0 104.9 104.7 104.8 105.2

4.5 4.7 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.2

105.9 107.1 107.1 106.6 106.8 107.3

6.4 6.8 5.0 4.5 6.0 5.7

103.1 103.3 103.1 103.2 103.3 103.5

2.9 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.8

103.7 103.8 103.7 103.6 103.9 104.3

3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.6

107.2 107.4 107.4 107.3 107.0 107.1

7.0 6.9 6.3 5.8 5.1 4.3

109.3 109.5 109.6 109.4 108.9 109.0

9.1 8.9 8.0 7.4 6.5 5.3

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

105.7 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.9 106.3 107.0 106.9 106.5 106.7

3.4 3.1 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.4

107.9 108.5 109.2 108.9 109.2 108.8 107.9 108.8 110.4 109.8 108.9 109.0

4.4 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.6 1.9 1.6 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.6

103.9 104.2 103.5 103.7 103.9 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.4 104.6 104.6 104.8

2.7 2.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3

104.6 104.7 104.3 104.4 104.6 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.2 105.2 105.3 105.5

3.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2

107.7 108.4 108.9 109.0 108.4 107.1 106.6 107.2 107.6 106.8 106.1 105.8

3.2 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2

109.5 110.5 111.2 111.1 110.3 108.4 107.6 108.6 109.2 107.8 106.8 106.4

3.6 3.6 2.7 1.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.3

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

107.3 107.7 107.6 107.5 107.5 107.3 107.6 107.9 108.1 107.8 107.8 107.9

1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1

109.9 110.4 110.4 109.9 109.6 109.4 109.7 110.3 110.9 110.1 110.1 110.2

1.7 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.9

105.3 105.6 105.4 105.6 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.0 106.2

1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3

105.9 106.2 106.0 106.0 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.4 107.5

1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9

106.0 106.7 106.3 105.9 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.8 105.7 105.3 105.1 105.4

-1.6 -1.6 -2.4 -2.8 -2.6 -1.4 -1.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.4 -0.9 -0.4

106.8 107.8 107.1 106.6 106.1 106.0 106.0 106.2 106.1 105.5 105.2 105.5

-2.5 -2.5 -3.7 -4.1 -3.8 -2.2 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

108.5 108.8 109.0 109.1 109.2 109.1 109.3 109.5

1.1 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4

110.9 111.4 111.6 111.3 111.5 111.2 111.2 111.4

0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.0

106.6 106.7 107.0 107.3 107.5 107.4 107.7 107.9

1.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7

107.7 108.0 108.3 108.5 108.8 108.9 109.1 109.2

1.7 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.4

105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.5 105.6 105.7 105.6

-0.3 -0.9 -0.5 -0.3 0 0.1 0.2 -0.2

105.7 105.9 105.7 105.4 105.3 105.4 105.5 105.1

-1.0 -1.7 -1.3 -1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1

Source: The Bank of Korea

12. Employment

Period

Economically active persons (thousand)

Employed persons (thousand) All industry

y-o-y change (%)

Manufacturing

y-o-y change (%)

SOC & services

y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

Unemployment (%)

25,099 25,501 25,873

1.4 1.6 1.5

24,244 24,681 25,066

1.7 1.8 1.6

4,091 4,105 4,184

1.6 0.3 1.9

18,595 19,033 19,347

2.1 2.4 1.6

3.4 3.2 3.1

2011 7 8 9 10 11 12

25,473 25,257 25,076 25,409 25,318 24,880

1.0 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.9 1.4

24,636 24,495 24,318 24,673 24,589 24,125

1.4 2.0 1.1 2.1 2.0 1.9

4,079 4,031 4,014 4,044 4,054 4,071

1.0 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -2.1 -2.1

18,844 18,739 18,595 18,856 18,921 18,833

1.9 3.1 2.1 3.2 3.2 3.1

3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,585 24,825 25,210 25,653 25,939 25,939 25,901 25,623 25,755 25,787 25,652 25,139

2.0 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.0

23,732 23,783 24,265 24,758 25,133 25,117 25,106 24,859 25,003 25,069 24,941 24,402

2.3 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.4 1.1

4,034 4,060 4,018 4,027 4,071 4,084 4,114 4,111 4,153 4,188 4,218 4,183

-2.8 -2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.6 -1.2 0.8 2.0 3.5 3.6 4.0 2.8

18,631 18,599 18,870 19,103 19,292 19,248 19,265 19,040 19,125 19,128 19,088 19,010

3.5 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4 0.9 0.9

3.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

24,901 24,973 25,397 25,928 26,195 26,291 26,301 26,074 26,186 26,268 26,230 25,736

1.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.3 2.4

24,054 23,984 24,514 25,103 25,398 25,478 25,473 25,291 25,466 25,545 25,530 24,962

1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.4 2.3

4,189 4,139 4,141 4,192 4,175 4,180 4,167 4,116 4,174 4,218 4,253 4,264

3.9 1.9 3.1 4.1 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 2.0

18,810 18,736 18,989 19,303 19,492 19,531 19,577 19,438 19,540 19,558 19,670 19,514

1.0 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.7

3.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.0

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

25,650 25,997 26,187 26,714 26,762 26,825 26,891 26,775 26,766

3.0 4.1 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.2

24,759 24,819 25,163 25,684 25,811 25,875 25,979 25,885 25,917

2.9 3.5 2.6 2.3 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 1.8

4,280 4,274 4,284 4,288 4,324 4,345 4,358 4,335 4,347

2.2 3.3 3.5 2.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.1

19,376 19,407 19,538 19,819 19,815 19,841 20,003 19,940 19,949

3.0 3.6 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 2.1

3.5 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2

Source: Statistics Korea

65 Statistical Appendices

2011 2012 2013

Statistical A ppendic es 13. Financial indicators (period average) Period

66

Yields(%)

Stock

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Call rate (1 day)

CD (91 days)

Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)

Treasury bonds (3 years)

Treasury bonds (5 years)

KOSPI(end-period)

2010 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5

2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8

4.8 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2

3.9 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.3

4.5 4.3 3.9 3.7 4.0 4.0

1,759.33 1,742.75 1,872.81 1,882.95 1,904.63 2,051.00

2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3

2.9 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.2

3.7 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4

4.3 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5

2,069.73 1,939.30 2,106.70 2,192.36 2,142.47 2,100.69 2,133.21 1,880.11 1,769.65 1,909.03 1,847.51 1,825.74

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8

3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9

4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0

1,955.79 2,030.25 2,014.04 1,981.99 1,843.47 1,854.01 1,881.99 1,905.12 1,996.21 1,912.06 1,932.90 1,997.05

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9

2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3

1,961.94 2,026.49 2,004.89 1,963.95 2,001.05 1,863.32 1,914.03 1,926.36 1,996.96 2,030.09 2,044.87 2,011.34

2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.2

2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.8

2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4

3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6

1,941.15 1,979.99 1,985.61 1,961.79 1,994.96 2,002.21 2,076.12 2,068.54 2,020.09

Source: The Bank of Korea

14. Monetary indicators (billion won) Period

Reserve money

M1

y-o-y change (%)

M2 y-o-y change (%)

Lf y-o-y change (%)

y-o-y change (%)

75,232.0 82,131.1 91,379.4

11.3 9.2 11.3

425,675.1 441,963.6 484,062.9

6.6 3.8 9.5

1,708,984.5 1,798,625.7 1,885,781.3

4.2 5.2 4.8

2,208,170.4 2,379,518.7 2,543,299.4

5.3 7.8 6.9

2011 7 8 9 10 11 12

74,069.7 75,642.3 77,942.2 76,944.6 76,617.3 77,842.5

10.6 12.4 10.9 10.1 10.3 8.9

418,973.1 422,649.3 425,196.4 421,480.1 423,111.9 432,602.2

3.8 5.4 5.1 4.1 2.0 1.6

1,705,451.5 1,719,437.8 1,729,531.1 1,742,645.4 1,753,296.4 1,756,597.4

3.2 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4

2,208,624.3 2,230,191.9 2,243,675.6 2,263,627.7 2,279,234.1 2,288,816.9

4.6 5.5 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.2

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

81,635.4 81,655.3 79,068.0 80,641.8 80,547.7 81,804.0 81,555.7 82,369.1 82,958.7 85,078.6 82,956.5 85,302.7

11.0 8.3 8.3 10.2 9.1 9.5 10.1 8.9 6.4 10.6 8.3 9.6

439,352.9 437,193.9 440,075.4 437,445.3 438,795.3 441,611.0 441,760.6 439,573.2 440,034.3 444,477.8 445,463.9 457,778.9

2.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.7 5.4 4.0 3.5 5.5 5.3 5.8

1,757,058.7 1,762,988.4 1,773,172.9 1,777,114.7 1,784,220.5 1,796,981.5 1,807,289.2 1,817,134.9 1,819,290.1 1,822,420.9 1,830,280.3 1,835,556.7

4.8 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.4 4.5

2,292,213.5 2,302,065.8 2,341,626.9 2,349,723.2 2,357,701.0 2,377,071.3 2,393,737.7 2,405,239.9 2,415,263.5 2,424,000.4 2,440,062.8 2,455,962.9

6.5 7.2 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 7.1 7.3

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

85,839.3 88,855.7 89,523.5 87,729.0 89,654.8 91,207.6 90,643.7 93,729.6 95,130.6 93,640.4 93,609.9 96,988.5

5.1 8.8 13.2 8.8 11.3 11.5 11.1 13.8 14.7 10.1 12.8 13.7

464,914.5 472,239.6 472,430.1 475,330.0 475,526.7 486,587.5 488,982.7 481,416.9 490,518.7 491,947.9 499,242.7 509,617.9

5.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 8.4 10.2 10.7 9.5 11.5 10.7 12.1 11.3

1,841,128.1 1,857,135.0 1,862,405.5 1,867,726.3 1,870,289.7 1,884,193.2 1,890,728.6 1,888,658.4 1,903,187.1 1,908,557.6 1,923,339.2 1,932,026.4

4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3

2,469,789.3 2,488,539.0 2,499,718.1 2,512,459.7 2,518,239.1 2,533,750.8 2,549,443.5 2,557,336.3 2,577,546.7 2,587,071.4 2,605,873.9 2,619,029.5

7.7 8.1 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.6

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

98,541.6 100,547.9 100,624.0 98,898.5 101,791.4 101,412.3 101,164.2 107,682.4

14.8 13.2 12.4 12.7 13.5 11.2 11.6 14.9

515,742.5 518,475.5 520,299.0 518,809.3 523,069.9 532,041.2 534,028.8 538,640.3

10.9 9.8 10.1 9.1 10.0 9.3 9.2 11.9

1,937,045.6 1,954,340.7 1,964,954.0 1,970,361.6 1,982,390.9 1,999,376.3 2,013,935.1 2,031,777.2

5.2 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.6

2,635,100.1 2,647,674.0 2,659,370.7 2,669,341.4 2,684,643.9 2,703,088.1 2,725,737.6 2,743,972.5

6.7 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.3

Source: The Bank of Korea

67 Statistical Appendices

2011 2012 2013

Statistical A ppendic es 15. Exchange rates (end-period) \/US $ Period

68

\/100

E c o n o m i c B u l le t i n

Won

y-o-y change (%)

Won

2011 2012 2013

1,153.3 1,071.1 1,055.3

1.3 -7.1 -1.5

1,485.2 1,247.5 1,004.7

2011 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,052.6 1,071.7 1,179.5 1,104.5 1,150.3 1,153.3

-11.3 -9.9 3.3 -2.0 -0.6 1.3

2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1,125.0 1,126.5 1,137.8 1,134.2 1,177.8 1,153.8 1,136.2 1,134.6 1,118.6 1,094.1 1,084.7 1,071.1

2013 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2014 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

\/Euro Won

y-o-y change (%)

6.3 -16.0 -19.5

1,494.1 1,416.3 1,456.3

-1.3 -5.2 2.8

1,353.2 1,396.8 1,536.6 1,458.0 1,475.7 1,485.2

-1.2 -0.7 12.7 4.8 7.4 6.3

1,507.9 1,547.3 1,601.4 1,562.7 1,532.9 1,494.1

-2.9 2.7 2.9 -0.4 1.0 -1.3

1.0 -0.1 2.8 5.8 9.0 7.0 7.9 5.9 -5.2 -0.9 -5.7 -7.1

1,473.1 1,399.2 1,380.7 1,412.0 1,489.1 1,453.8 1,453.6 1,444.0 1,441.1 1,374.5 1,320.6 1,247.5

8.6 1.3 3.7 7.5 11.5 8.8 7.4 3.4 -6.2 -5.7 -10.5 -16.0

1,478.2 1,516.3 1,513.4 1,501.7 1,456.6 1,435.0 1,393.1 1,419.6 1,444.3 1,418.3 1,407.3 1,416.3

-2.4 -2.1 -3.2 -5.6 -6.0 -8.0 -7.6 -8.3 -9.8 -9.2 -8.2 -5.2

1,082.7 1,085.4 1,112.1 1,108.1 1,128.3 1,149.7 1,113.6 1,110.9 1,075.6 1,061.4 1,062.1 1,055.3

-3.8 -3.6 -2.3 -2.3 -4.2 -0.4 -2.0 -2.1 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 -1.5

1,188.5 1,176.2 1,180.1 1,132.0 1,116.6 1,167.2 1,135.4 1,129.2 1,098.7 1,077.5 1,038.2 1,004.7

-19.3 -15.9 -14.5 -19.8 -25.0 -19.7 -21.9 -21.8 -23.8 -21.6 -21.4 -19.5

1,469.3 1,425.8 1,425.2 1,451.3 1,471.4 1,498.2 1,476.7 1,470.6 1,451.3 1,456.6 1,444.8 1,456.3

-0.6 -6.0 -5.8 -3.4 1.0 4.4 6.0 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.7 2.8

1,079.2 1,067.7 1,068.8 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,014.4 1,024.3 1,013.6 1,050.6

-0.3 -1.6 -3.9 -6.9 -9.5 -11.8 -8.0 -8.8 -2.3

1,043.7 1,044.8 1,038.7 1,005.3 1,004.2 1,000.0 995.7 977.6 960.2

-12.2 -11.2 -12.0 -11.2 -10.1 -14.3 -12.3 -13.4 -12.6

1,473.6 1,463.6 1,469.4 1,425.0 1,389.6 1,384.2 1,371.8 1,336.2 1,333.3

0.3 2.7 3.1 -1.8 -5.6 -7.6 -7.1 -9.1 -8.1

Source: The Bank of Korea

y-o-y change (%)

Useful websites Ministry of Strategy and Finance http://english.mosf.go.kr Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://www.motie.go.kr/language/eng Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://eng.ftc.go.kr Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english The Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english

Royal Guard Changing Ceremony at Gyeongbokgung A changing of the guards ceremony is held every day in front of Gyeongbokgung, to reenact a centuries-old tradition of the Joseon Dynasty. An officer beats the beopgo (drum) three times during the ceremony, to mark the arrival, changing and departure of the guards.

ISSN 2287-7266

ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

Republic of Korea

Vol.36 No.10 October 2014

conomic u l l e t i n

Vol.36 No.10 October 2014

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Policy Issues

2014-2018 Public Institution Financial Management Plan

Economic News Briefing BOK Cuts Key Rate to 2.00% FDI in Jan-Sep 2014 Posts Record High COP 12 Held in Korea Measures for Addressing Weak Yen

Statistical Appendices ECONOMIC BULLETIN (Republic of Korea)

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