EconomicBulletin201903_english

Republic of Korea

Economic Bulletin March 2019 Vol.41 No.3

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

Policy Issue 2019 Work Report Measures to Boost Ventures

Economic News Briefing Korea to Help Exporters Amid Slowing Global Demand External Debt Amounts to US $440.6 Billion in 2018 Korea to Cut Stock Transaction Tax Korean FDI Posts US $49.78 Billion in 2018 Korea Grows 2.7% in 2018

Statistical Appendices eb.kdi.re.kr ISSN 2287-7266

Gwangyang Maehwa Village Along the river called Seomjin, famous for its clean and abundant water, is a village filled with plum trees. The Seomjin Village, also called a Maehwa (plum) Village, is located at the outskirts of Jiri Mountain, making it most attractive in spring. The annual Plum Blossom Festival takes place every March when the plum blossoms are in full bloom.

02

The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview

03

01. External economic situation

04

02. Private consumption

09

03. Facility investment

11

04. Construction investment

13

05. Exports and imports

15

06. Mining and manufacturing production

17

07. Service sector activity

19

08. Employment

21

09. Financial markets

25

9.1 Stock market

25

9.2 Exchange rate

25

9.3 Bond market

26

9.4 Money supply and money market

27

10. Balance of payments

29

11. Prices

32

11.1 Consumer prices

32

11.2 International oil and commodity prices

34

12. Real estate market

37

12.1 Housing market

37

12.2 Land market

39

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

42

03

Contents

41

Policy Issue 2019 work report Measures to boost ventures

49

Economic News Briefing Korea to help exporters amid slowing global demand External debt amounts to US $440.6 billion in 2018, soundness indicators stable Korea to cut stock transaction tax Korean FDI posts US $49.78 billion in 2018 Korea grows 2.7% in 2018 (preliminary)

53 Statistical Appendices

Editor-in-Chief Suh Joong-Hae (KDI) Yoon Tae-Sik (MOEF) Editorial Board Suk Ran (MOEF) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Yu Seong-Im (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOEF) Lee Hyun-Jin (KDI) Editors Shin Dong-Gyun (MOEF) Joo Moo-Kyung (MOEF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI)

Overview 01 External economic situation 02 Private consumption 03 Facility investment 04 Construction investment 05 Exports and imports 06 Mining and manufacturing production 07 Service sector activity 08 Employment 09 Financial markets 10 Balance of payments 11 Prices 12 Real estate market 13 Composite indices of business cycle indicators

The Green Book:

Current Economic Trends

Overview

The economy has been improving in 2019 as industrial activities rose in January and economic confidence continued to rise in February. Jobs grew significantly in February compared with the previous month, and consumer prices remained stable.

Industrial production rose in January by 0.8 percent month-on-month due to strong mining and manufacturing (up 0.5%, m-o-m), service output (up 0.9%, m-o-m) and construction completed (up 2.1%, m-o-m).

Consumption and investment improved in January: Retail sales rose (down 0.2% → up 0.2%, m-o-m) as well as facility investment (down 2.6% → up 2.2%, m-o-m) and construction completed (up 2.4% → up 2.1%, m-o-m).

Exports remained weak in February, falling 11.1 percent year-on-year due to weak semiconductors and slowing down global economies, including the Chinese economy.

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) rose for the third consecutive month in February, up 2 points to 99.5, and the business sentiment index (BSI) improved 2 points to 69. The BSI outlook for March jumped 11 points to 76.

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell in January, as well as the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index, by 0.1points and 0.4points, respectively, compared to a month ago.

The economy added 263,000 jobs in February as service jobs increased and also due to the government’s job creation programs. The unemployment rate went up by 0.1 percentage points due to increased job seekers.

Consumer prices in February rose 0.5 percent compared to a year ago, fresh food prices being stable and oil prices continuing to fall.

In February, KOSPI declined and the won weakened. Treasury bond yields fluctuated.

Housing prices continued to decline in February (down 0.15% → down 0.12%, m-o-m) and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to fall (down 0.22% → down 0.22%, m-o-m).

There has been a positive momentum into this year backed by improving industrial activities and economic confidence. However, uncertainties linger amid concerns over global economic slowdown, weak semiconductor markets, US-China trade relationship and Brexit.

The government will strengthen its risk management, and will try to find ways to boost the economy and promote inclusiveness. The government will work to successfully implement measures to encourage exporters and ventures, as well as plans to support industrial innovation.

March 2019

03

The Green Book

1. External economic situation Global economic growth is slowing down, and there are risks from trade conflicts, Brexit negotiations and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

US The US economic growth rate slowed to 2.6 percent (annualized q-o-q) in the fourth quarter, but is still above the potential growth rate.

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent month-on-month in January: Manufacturing (down 0.9%, m-o-m) fell, and mining (up 0.1%, m-o-m) rose.

The ISM Manufacturing Index declined 2.4 percentage points in February.

ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50)

59.5 (Sep 2018) → 57.5 (Oct) → 58.8 (Nov) → 54.3 (Dec) → 56.6 (Jan 2019) → 54.2 (Feb)

US GDP growth and industrial production (%)

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Industrial production (q-o-q)

-6 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board

Retail sales rose 0.2 percent month-on-month in January due to strong construction materials (up 3.3%, m-o-m) and non-store retailing (up 2.6%, m-o-m) including online shopping. Consumer confidence rose sharply in February.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)

137.9 (Oct 2018) → 136.4 (Nov) → 126.6 (Dec) → 121.7 (Jan 2019) → 131.4 (Feb)

04

Economic Bulletin

Existing home sales fell 1.2 percent month-on-month in January to an annual rate of 4,940,000 homes (down 8.5%, y-o-y). New home sales rose 3.7 percent month-on-month in December to an annual rate of 620,000 units (down 2.4%, y-o-y).

Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %)

5.9 (Jul 2018) → 5.5 (Aug) → 5.2 (Sep) → 5.0 (Oct) → 4.6 (Nov) → 4.2 (Dec)

New home sales (m-o-m, %)

-1.0 (Jul 2018) → -0.8 (Aug) → 1.3 (Sep) → -9.9 (Oct) → 9.1 (Nov) → 3.7 (Dec)

The unemployment rate fell 3.8 percent in February, the employment rate unchanged. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 20,000 in February.

Labor force participation rate (%)

62.7 (Sep 2018) → 62.9 (Oct) → 62.9 (Nov) → 63.1 (Dec) → 63.2 (Jan 2019) → 63.2 (Feb)

Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands)

108 (Sep 2018) → 277 (Oct) → 196 (Nov) → 227 (Dec) → 311 (Jan 2019) → 20 (Feb)

Unemployment rate (%)

3.7 (Sep 2018) → 3.8 (Oct) → 3.7 (Nov) → 3.9 (Dec) → 4.0 (Jan 2019) → 3.8 (Feb)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2016

2017

Annual Annual

2018

2019

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec Jan Feb

Real GDP

1.6

2.2

2.3

2.9

2.2

4.2

3.4

2.6

-

-

-

- Personal consumption expenditures

2.7

2.5

3.9

2.6

0.5

3.8

3.5

2.8

-

-

-

- Nonresidential fixed investment

0.5

5.3

4.8

7.0 11.5

8.5

2.5

6.2

-

-

-

- Residential fixed investment

6.5

3.3

11.1

-0.2

-3.4 -1.3 -3.6 -3.5

-

-

-

Industrial production

-1.9

1.6

1.9

4.0

0.6

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.1 -0.6

Retail sales

2.9

4.7

2.4

4.9

0.4

1.7

1.1

0.2 -1.6

0.2

-

Existing home sales

4.0

1.7

2.3

-3.4

-1.0 -1.8 -1.8 -3.1 -4.0 -1.2

-

Unemployment rate2

4.9

4.4

4.1

3.9

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.0

3.8

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

1.3

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.2

2.7

2.6

2.2

1.9

1.6

-

1

-

1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg

March 2019

05

The Green Book

China China’s economy continued to slow down in the fourth quarter (up 6.4%, y-o-y), growing 6.6 percent over the 2018 full year. Exports fell sharply by 20.7 percent in February.

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2016

2017

2018

Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1

2019

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec

Jan

Feb

Real GDP

6.7

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.8

6.7

6.5

6.4

-

-

-

Industrial production

6.2

6.6

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.6

6.0

5.7

5.7

-

-

Fixed asset investment (accumulated, nominal)

8.1

7.2

7.2

5.9

7.5

6.0

5.4

5.9

5.9

-

-

Retail sales (nominal)

10.4

10.2

9.9

9.0

9.7

9.0

9.0

8.3

8.2

-

-

Exports

-6.9

6.9

9.6

9.9 13.7 11.5 11.7

3.9

-4.4

9.1 -20.7

Consumer prices1

2.0

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.2

1.8

2.3

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.5

Producer prices

-1.3

6.3

5.9

3.5

3.7

4.1

4.1

2.3

0.9

0.1

0.1

1

1. Quarterly data show an average of monthly data Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment

GDP (y-o-y, left) Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)

(%)

(%)

14

50

12

40

10

30

8

20

6

10

0

4 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

06

Economic Bulletin

Japan Japan’s economy grew 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, annual growth for 2018 being 0.8 percent.

Unemployment rate (%)

2.4 (Aug 2018) → 2.4 (Sep) → 2.4 (Oct) → 2.5 (Nov) → 2.4 (Dec) → 2.5 (Jan 2019)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2016

2017

Annual Annual

2018

2019

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Nov

Dec

Jan

-

-

Real GDP

0.6

1.9

0.4

0.8

-0.1

0.5

-0.6

0.5

-

Industrial production

0.2

2.9

1.2

0.9

-1.1

1.2

-1.4

2.0

-1.0

-0.1 -3.7

Retail sales (nominal)

-2.9

1.2

1.3

1.7

-0.6

0.4

1.1

1.1

-1.1

0.9 -2.3

Exports (y-o-y)

-7.4

11.8 13.0

4.1

4.9

7.5

2.9

1.3

0.1

-3.9 -8.4

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

-0.1

1.0

1.3

0.7

1.1

0.8

0.8

0.3 0.2

0.5

0.6

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production (%)

GDP (q-o-q, left) Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

(%)

3

15

2

10

1

5

0

0

-1

-5

-2

-10

-3

-15

-4

-20

-5

-25 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan

March 2019

07

The Green Book

Eurozone The eurozone economy grew a mere 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter due to struggling car companies and demonstrations. The Manufacturing PMI in February hit the lowest since June 2013.

Unemployment rate (%)

8.0 (Aug 2018) → 8.0 (Sep) → 8.0 (Oct) → 7.9 (Nov) → 7.8 (Dec) → 7.8* (Jan 2019) * Lowest since Dec 2008

Manufacturing PMI

53.2 (Sep 2018) → 52.0 (Oct) → 51.8 (Nov) → 51.4 (Dec) → 50.5 (Jan 2019) → 49.3 (Feb)

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (base 2010=100)

109.7 (Oct 2018) → 109.5 (Nov) → 107.4 (Dec) → 106.3 (Jan 2019) → 106.1 (Feb)

(Percentage change from previous period)

2016

2017

Annual Annual

2018

2019

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec

Jan

Feb

Real GDP

2.0

2.4

0.7

1.8

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

-

-

-

Industrial production

1.7

3.0

1.4

1.0

-0.6

0.0

-0.1

-1.4

-0.9

-

-

Retail sales

1.6

2.4

0.3

1.5

0.2

0.7

-0.1

0.6

-1.4

1.3

-

Exports (y-o-y)

0.3

7.1

6.2

3.7

2.1

4.3

4.7

3.7

-2.5

-

-

Consumer prices (y-o-y)

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.3

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.5 1.4

1.5

Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg

Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production (%)

(%)

2

6 4

1 2 0

0 -2

-1 -4 -2

-6 -8

GDP (q-o-q, left) Industrial production (q-o-q, right)

-3 -10 -4

-12 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Eurostat

08

Economic Bulletin

2. Private consumption Private consumption (advance estimate of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 rose 1.0 percent from the previous quarter and 2.5 percent compared with a year ago.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2016 Annual Q3

Private consumption2

2017 1

1

1

Q4 Annual Q1

Q2

2018 1

Q3

1

1

1

Q21 Q31 Q41

Q4 Annual Q1

2.5

0.5 0.3

2.6

0.5 1.0 0.8 1.0

2.8

0.7 0.3 0.5 1.0

-

2.8 1.4

-

2.1 2.4 2.6 3.4

-

3.5 2.8 2.5 2.5

(y-o-y)

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea

Private consumption (%)

8 6 4 2 0 -2

Private consumption (y-o-y) Private consumption (q-o-q)

-4 -6 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

2018.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

Retail sales in January rose 0.2 percent from the previous month: Sales of durable goods (down 1.0%) and semi-durable goods (down 4.6%) fell, and nondurable goods sales (up 3.0%) improved. Year-on-year the index rose 4.0 percent.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2016

2017

Annual Annual

Retail sales

2018 1

2019 1

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

0.6

1.6

4,2

2.1

0.6

-0.2

-0.1

Dec

1

Jan1

-0.2

0.2

3.9

1.9

-

-

3.0

3.0

-

5.4

5.0

4.2

2.5

3.0

4.0

- Durable goods

4.6

5.3

-0.9

1.9

5.6

4.7

0.2

-2.6

0.2

-0.9

-1.0

¡ Automobiles

2.8

0.9

-2.4

0.4

8.2

10.1

1.0

-4.4

0.5

-1.4

-3.1

- Semi-durable goods3

2.3

-1.1

0.1

2.1

5.9

0.7

3.0

1.7

0.6

0.5

-4.6

- Nondurable goods4

4.2

1.8

1.4

1.3

2.9

1.5

-0.2

0.4

-0.5

-0.3

3.0

(y-o-y) 2

1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices and etc.

3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear and etc.

4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco and etc.

Source: Statistics Korea

March 2019

09

The Green Book

Retail sales (%)

15

10

5

0

-5

Retail sales (y-o-y) Retail sales (m-o-m)

-10 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

Retail sales by type (y-o-y, %)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Durable goods Semi-durable goods

-5 -10 -15

Nondurable goods

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

In February sales of department stores and large discount stores fell, while the number of Chinese tourists and consumer sentiment rose.

2018 Jul

2019

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Car sales at home (y-o-y, %)

3.3

6.8

-18.7

23.1

-0.4

3.3

Jan 2.1

Feb -0.7

Department store sales (y-o-y, %)

3.2

2.9

4.3

3.9

-3.4

0.5

6.4

-7.7

Large discount store sales (y-o-y, %)

-2.5

2.0

7.5

-12.2

-1.7

-3.6

4.6

-10.8

Credit card use at home (y-o-y, %)

9.7

8.8

1.9

13.2

6.7

7.1

6.6

1.3

100.8 Consumer sentiment index Number of Chinese tourists (y-o-y, %) 45.9

98.9

100.0

99.2

95.7

96.9

97.5

99.5

41.0

36.4

37.7

35.1

25.3

35.1

48.11

1. ‌ Advance estimate based on all Chinese entries, which can be different from the statistic released by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism as it excludes diplomatic and military personnel Sources: ‌ Bank of Korea, Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries

10

Economic Bulletin

3. Facility investment Facility investment (advance estimate of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 rose 3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and fell 3.3 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2017 Annual1 Q11

Facility investment2

2018

Q21

Q31

Q41 Annual1 Q11

Q21

Q31

Q41

14.6

4.5

4.3

0.2

-0.7

-1.7

3.4

-5.7

-4.4

3.8

-

16.1

17.9

16.3

8.6

-

7.3

-3.0

-7.4

-3.3

- Machinery

23.0

7.1

3.9

2.4

-1.2

-

4.0

-4.5

-9.5

-

- Transportation equipment

-3.2

-1.7

5.3

-5.5

0.8

-

1.9

-9.3

10.6

-

(y-o-y)

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

Facility investment (%)

40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20

Facility investment (y-o-y) -30

Facility investment (q-o-q)

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

2018.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

Facility investment by type (y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10

Transportation equipment

-20 -30

Machinery

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

2018.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

March 2019

11

The Green Book

The facility investment index in January rose 2.2 percent month-on-month as machinery investment increased. The index fell 16.6 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2017 Facility investment index

2018 1

Annual

Q3

Q4

Annual

14.1

0.2

-1.7

(y-o-y)

-

Q1

2019 1

Q2

Q3

Q4

-3.7

8.4 -11.0

-6.2

0.1

1

Dec

Jan1

-2.6

2.2

20.6

2.0

-

9.4

-5.9 -13.6

-8.6 -14.9 -16.6

- Machinery

22.4

-0.1

-2.0

-6.5

5.3

-9.5 -10.1

-1.0

-3.3

5.4

- Transportation equipment

-4.4

0.4

-0.8

4.0

2.7

-0.2

-5.3

17.8 -15.5

4.8

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Machinery imports and domestic machinery orders received fell in January, as well as facility investment pressure. The capacity utilization rate improved somewhat.

BSI in the manufacturing sector (base=100, Bank of Korea)

77 (Sep 2018) → 78 (Oct) → 72 (Nov) → 71 (Dec) → 71 (Jan 2019) → 65 (Feb) → 76 (Mar) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2017 Domestic machinery orders received (q-o-q, m-o-m)

2018 1

Q4 Annual

Q1

Q2

2019

Q3

Q4

1

1

Jan1

Annual

Q3

Dec

19.2

31.3

4.2

1.8

4.4

-0.4

0.0

-0.2

13.3

-

1.4

0.3

-

-8.9

7.2

1.8

0.0

23.9 -18.7 77.9 -60.6

-9.3

-Public

-21.8

-0.9 -54.0

8.8 -12.7

18.9

8.2

21.7

-Private

24.1

34.1

1.3

6.1

-1.7

-0.6

-1.6

Machinery imports

18.8

22.7

9.1

-0.9

21.0

-1.2 -13.1

-8.2 -19.9 -20.4

Capacity utilization rate

72.6

73.0

71.8

73.5

71.0

73.2

74.2

73.1

72.2

73.1

0.5

3.9

-4.7

1.4

-2.5

1.5

-0.8

4.9

1.3

-0.4

Facility investment pressure

2

15.0

9.5

-1.5

1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association

Leading indicators of facility investment (trillion won)

(y-o-y, %)

10

60

9 40

8 7

20

6 0

5 4

Machinery imports (right)

-20

3 -40

2

Machinery orders (left)

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

2018.Q1

Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports)

12

Economic Bulletin

4. Construction investment Construction investment (advance estimate of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 rose 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter and fell 6.0 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2017 Annual1

Construction investment2 (y-o-y)

7.6

2018

Q11

Q21

Q31

Q41

Annual1

Q11

Q21

Q31

Q41

4.2

0.9

1.1

-2.3

-4.0

1.8

-2.1

-6.7

1.2

-

11.3

8.5

8.0

3.8

-

1.8

-1.5

-8.9

-6.0

- Building construction

12.1

4.5

2.4

1.9

-1.6

-

0.7

-1.1

-6.7

-

- Civil engineering works

-3.5

3.5

-3.0

-1.2

-4.2

-

5.3

-4.7

-6.6

-

1. Preliminary

2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea

Construction investment (%)

15

10

5

0

-5

Construction investment (y-o-y)

-10

Construction investment (q-o-q)

-15 2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

2018.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

Construction investment by type (y-o-y, %)

40 30 20 10 0 -10

Building construction

-20

Residential buildings -30

Civil engineering works

2009.Q1

2010.Q1

2011.Q1

2012.Q1

2013.Q1

2014.Q1

2015.Q1

2016.Q1

2017.Q1

2018.Q1

Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)

March 2019

13

The Green Book

Construction completed (constant) in January rose 2.1 percent monthon-month as building construction increased. The index fell 11.8 percent year-on-year.

(Percentage change from previous period)

2017

2018 1

Annual

Q3

Q4 Annual

10.5

-0.3

-0.1

Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y)

Q1

-5.2

2.5

2019 1

1

Jan1 2.1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec

-4.9

-4.4

-7.8

2.4

-

12.7

-0.5

-

0.8

-3.5

-9.7

-3.7

-9.1 -11.8

- Building construction

18.5

2.7

-0.8

-4.0

0.6

-2.9

-4.4

-3.8

2.2

3.2

- Civil engineering works

-7.6

-7.3

3.0

-8.9

1.5

-7.6

-2.2

-3.4

3.1

-1.2

1. Preliminary

Source: Statistics Korea

Outlooks are mixed: Leading indicators, such as construction orders received and building permits, declined in January, but the government has raised its SOC budgets for 2019.

Government SOC budgets (trillion won) 19.0 (2018) → 19.8 (2019)

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2017 Annual

Q3

2018 Q4

1

Annual

Q1

Q2

2019 Q3

Q4

1

1

Dec

Jan1

Construction orders received (current value)

-3.1 -10.2 -15.0

-3.0

3.6 -15.7

-5.7

-0.4

-2.0 -41.3

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-

8.0 -11.1

6.7

37.5

76.8 -64.7

- Building construction

-6.5

-8.3 -15.5

-8.7

-0.5 -14.7 -23.6

-5.0 -11.8 -21.6

- Civil engineering works

9.7 -17.3 -13.0

15.6

13.0 -19.1

16.8 -29.6 -62.9

Building permits2

-4.0

-6.3

1. Preliminary

-10.6

-0.3

-1.1

-2.4

3.7

67.0

-7.2 -10.2 -10.4 -14.5 -18.4

2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

Apartment presales (thousands, Real Estate 114)

100 (Q4 2017) → 50 (Q1 2018) → 111 (Q2) → 66 (Q3) → 71 (Q4) → 30 (Jan 2019)

Leading indicators of construction investment (y-o-y, %)

200

150

100

50

0

-50

Construction orders -100

Building permit area

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area)

14

Economic Bulletin

5. Exports and Imports Exports (preliminary) decreased 11.1 percent year-on-year to US $39.56 billion in February.

By item, automobiles, machinery and steel rose, while semiconductors, wireless communications devices and computers dropped. By region, shipments to the CIS, the U.S. and India increased, while exports to the EU, China, the Middle East and Latin America declined.

Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)

2.7 (automobiles), 2.7 (machinery), 1.3 (steel), -15.3 (wireless communications devices), -24.8 (semiconductors), -33.2 (computers)

Export growth by region (y-o-y, %)

20.5 (CIS), 16.0 (US), 4.7 (India), -8.5 (EU), -17.4 (China), -27.1 (Middle East), -33.8 (Latin America)

Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to days worked, fell 8.8 percent year-on-year to US $2.08 billion.

Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %)

10.7 (Q1 2018) → 3.9 (Q2) → 7.0 (Q3) → 0.1 (Q4) → -5.8 (Jan 2019) → -8.8 (Feb) (US $ billion)

2017 Exports

2018 Q1

Q2

2019

Annual

Annual

Q3

Q4

573.69

604.86 145.05 151.62 153.64 154.55

Feb

Jan

Feb1

44.52

46.33

39.56

(y-o-y, %)

15.8

5.4

9.8

3.1

1.7

7.7

3.1

-5.9

-11.1

Average daily exports

2.13

2.24

2.16

2.30

2.28

2.22

2.28

1.93

2.08

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Exports by item (y-o-y, %)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20

Export growth rate Automobiles Semiconductors

0 -20 -40 -60 -80

Steel

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

March 2019

15

The Green Book

Imports (preliminary) in February fell 12.6 percent year-on-year to US $36.47 billion.

Imports declined in all three categories.

Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, Jan → Feb)

0.2 → -8.5 (commodities), -9.1 → -20.5 (capital goods), 8.6 → -9.4 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)

2017

2018

Annual Annual

Imports

478.48

Q1

Q2

Q3

2019 Q4

Dec

Feb

Feb1

Jan

535.20 132.43 133.15 130.31 139.31 44.03 41.72 45.03 36.47

(y-o-y, %)

17.8

11.9

13.7

13.0

7.8

12.9

1.1

15.2

-1.7 -12.6

Average daily imports

1.78

1.98

1.98

2.02

1.93

2.00

1.96

2.14

1.88

1.92

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $3.10 billion in February, staying in the black for the 85th consecutive month. Surpluses increased month-on-month.

(US $ billion)

2017 Annual

Trade balance

95.22

2018 Annual 69.66

2019

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

12.63

18.47

23.33

15.23

Feb

Feb1

Jan

2.80

1.29

3.10

1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service

Imports by category (y-o-y, %)

100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40

Import growth rate Commodities Capital goods

-80 -100 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)

16

Economic Bulletin

6. ‌ Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.5 percent month-on-month in January as manufacturing improved, along with mining. Gas & electricity production fell. The index rose 0.1 percent year-on-year.

Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (up 3.5%), primary metals (up 3.5%) and food (up 3.4%) rose, while electronic components (down 5.4%), broadcasting & communications equipment (down 21.1%) and electrical equipment (down 6.1%) fell.

Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 7.5%), automobiles (up 9.4%) and other transportation equipment (up 19.8%) rose, while mechanical equipment (down 12.4%), electronic components (down 12.6%) and broadcasting & communications equipment (down 31.5%) declined.

The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 3.1 percentage points monthon-month to 111.7 percent as inventories fell 1.2 percent and shipments rose 1.5 percent.

Inventories of semiconductors (up 11.0%), chemical products (up 1.3%) and electrical equipment (up 1.0%) rose, while refined petroleum (down 18.7%), electronic components (down 8.5%) and broadcasting & communications equipment (down 12.5%) declined.

Shipments of automobiles (up 6.3%), primary metals (up 6.6%) and refined petroleum (up 6.8%) rose, while semiconductors (down 11.4%), broadcasting & communications equipment (down 8.6%) and electronic components (down 2.7%) fell.

The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing sector improved 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to 73.1 percent.

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2017 Annual Q4

2019

Q41

Dec1 Jan1

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-1.0

-2.0

-

0.6

-1.5

-0.8

0.5

(y-o-y)

1.9

-3.8

-4.8

1.3

-1.8

4.3

0.7

0.1

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-1.1

-2.5

-

0.3

-1.4

-0.9

0.5

(y-o-y)

1.6

-4.8

-6.2

1.2

-2.3

4.6

1.2

0.2

Inventory

8.8

2.9

1.2

7.3

-2.6

4.8

1.4

-1.2

Shipments

0.7

0.4

-3.8

-0.2

0.9

-1.5

-1.6

1.5

Mining and manufacturing2 Production 3

Manufacturing

2018 Dec Annual1 Q3

Capacity utilization rate Production capacity (y-o-y)

73.3 71.8 70.3 73.5 74,2 73.1 72.2 73.1 1.2

-0.1

-0.5

-0.2

-1.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.6

1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period Source: Statistics Korea

March 2019

17

The Green Book

Industrial production (%)

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10

Industrial production (y-o-y)

-20 -30

Industrial production (m-o-m)

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

Shipment and inventory (m-o-m, %)

8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4

Shipment growth -6

Inventory growth

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

Capacity utilization rate (%)

90

85

80

75

70

65

60 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

18

Economic Bulletin

7. ‌ Service sector activity Service output increased 0.9 percent month-on-month in January. Wholesale & retail, transportation & storage services and information & communications services rose, while hotels & restaurants and real estate & renting declined.

Compared to a year ago, the index rose 2.0 percent.

(Percentage change from previous period)

Weight

2017

2019

2018 1

Annual Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

1

1

Q4

Dec

Jan1

Service activity index

100.0

1.9

2.1

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.4

-0.1

0.9

- Wholesale & retail

21.1

0.7

1.5

0.7

-0.1

-0.2

0.2

-0.8

1.8

- Transportation & storage services

9.0

1.6

2.1

-0.2

2.7

-0.7

0.0

-1.7

1.8

- Hotels & restaurants

6.2 -1.9

-1.9

-1.2

0.6

-0.2

0.3

-1.5

-1.0

- Information & communications services

8.0

1.6

1.5

0.4

-0.2

0.3

-1.5

0.4

2.5

14.1

5.1

5.8

1.2

0.9

-1.0

1.0

1.3

0.1

- Real estate & renting

3.2

1.2

0.2

4.1

-0.6

1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-0.2

- Professional, scientific & technical services

7.1 -1.6

0.7

1.0

0.5

-0.4

1.6

0.2

2.3

- Business services

4.8

4.2

0.6

0.2

-1.1

-1.2

1.8

1.3

0.1

- Education services

10.6

0.0

0.1

0.4

-0.1

-0.6

0.8

0.0

0.4

- Financial & insurance services

- Healthcare & welfare services

9.4

6.6

5.6

3.4

0.2

7.3

-0.8

1.2

0.0

- Entertainment & leisure

2.2

0.2

-0.6

0.9

-0.4

-0.9

0.4

0.2

3.6

- Membership organizations & personal services

3.2

0.0

0.7

1.3

0.3

-1.0

0.6

1.5

-1.2

- Sewerage & waste management

1.1

0.4

3.1

-0.2

2.0

0.9

0.1

-3.7

0.2

1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

Service sector activity (%)

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2

Service sector activity (y-o-y) -4

Service sector activity (m-o-m)

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

March 2019

19

The Green Book

Wholesale & retail (%)

10 8 6 4 2 0 -2

Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)

-4 -6

Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

January 2019 service output by business (y-o-y, %) Healthcare & social welfare services

8

6 Wholesale & retail

4

2

0

-2

Hotels & restaurants Total index

Professional, scientific & technical services

Publishing & communications services Financial & insurance services

Entertainment & leisure

Education services

Transportation & storage services

-4

Sewerage & waste management

Business services

Membership organizations & personal services

Real estate & renting

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

In February car sales at home fell, as well as department store sales and large discount store sales. The number of Chinese tourists and stock transactions increased.

2019

2018 Jul

Aug

Jan

1

Feb1

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

23.1

-0.4

3.3

2.1

-0.7 -7.7

Car sales at home (y-o-y, %)

3.3

6.8 -18.7

Department store sales (y-o-y, %)

3.2

2.9

4.3

3.9

-3.4

0.5

6.4

Large discount store sales (y-o-y, %)

-2.5

2.0

7.5 -12.2

-1.7

-3.6

4.6 -10.8

Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) Number of Chinese tourists (y-o-y, %)

9.0

8.8

10.8

9.6

8.4

8.7

45.9

41.0

36.4

37.7

35.1

25.3

9.3

9.6

35.1 48.12

1. Preliminary 2. ‌ Advance estimate based on all Chinese entries, which can be different from the statistic released by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism as it excludes diplomatic and military personnel Sources: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Korea Exchange, data provided by retail industries

20

Economic Bulletin

8. ‌ Employment The number of workers on payroll in February increased by 263,000 from a year ago to 26,346,000, and the employment rate (aged 15-64) remained unchanged from a year ago at 65.8 percent.

By industry, jobs in services and agriculture rose, while manufacturing jobs declined.

By employment status, permanent and daily workers grew, while temporary and self-employed workers continued to decrease.

Number of persons employed and employment growth (thousands)

Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right) Employment growth (y-o-y, left)

(millions)

1,000

28

800

27

600

26

400

25

200

24

0

23

-200

22

-400

21 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

Employment by industry (%)

100

80

60

Services

40

Construction Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

71.9 71.5 71.1 70.6 70.2 70.1 70.4 70.6 70.4 70.3 70.5 70.9 71.1 71.2 70.9 70.3 70.0 70.1 70.1 70.2 69.9 69.8 70.1 70.7 71.1 71.3

20

7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.4 17.4 17.5 17.2 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.6 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.9 16.9 16.7

0

3.4 3.7 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.2

2017.1 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 11 12 2018.1 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 11 12 2019.1 2

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

March 2019

21

The Green Book

Employment by status of workers (%)

100

3.7 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.7 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.9 20.8

80 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.3 17 17.2 60 18.4 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.5 17.8 17.5 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.2 17.5

Unpaid family workers 40

Self-employed workers Daily workers

20

50.8 51.0 50.6 49.9 49.7 49.6 49.8 50.2 50.0 50.0 50.2 51.1 52.0 52.4 51.5 50.9 50.8 50.8 50.7 51.3 51.2 51.2 51.1 52.3 53.1 53.1

Temporary workers 0

Regular workers

2017.1 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 11 12 2018.1 2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 11 12 2019.1 2

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

2017

2018 Annual

26.73

26.82

Employment rate (%)

60.8

60.7

59.6

61.2

61.1

60.9

59.2

59.2

59.4

(Seasonally adjusted)

60.8

60.7

60.9

60.7

60.5

60.7

60.7

60.7

61.0

- 15 to 64

66.6

66.6

66.0

66.9

66.7

66.8

65.8

65.9

65.8

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

316

97

183

101

17

88

104

19

263

- Manufacturing

-18

-56

45

-91

-91

-88

14

-170

-151

- Construction

119

47

69

16

45

56

64

-19

-3

- Services

209

51

18

125

6

55

-13

113

311

Number of employed (millions)

Q1

Q2

2019

Annual

Q3

Q4

Feb

Jan

Feb

26.28 27.02 27.02 26.97 26.08 26.23 26.35

· Wholesale & retail

41

-72

-74

-50

-87

-77

-92

-67

-60

· Hotels & restaurants

-3

-45

-24

-24

-69

-65

-22

-40

1

· ‌ Healthcare & social welfare services

61

125

51

148

142

159

25

179

237

- Wage workers

265

150

228

113

65

192

167

92

296

· Permanent workers

366

345

409

335

293

342

433

279

299

· Temporary workers

-132

-141

-124

-109

-162

-170

-182

-212

-43

31

-54

-57

-113

-67

19

-85

25

40

51

-52

-45

-13

-48

-104

-63

-73

-33

68

-44

-24

-3

-55

-93

-42

-61

-46

· Daily workers - Nonwage workers · Self-employed workers - Male

127

4

75

-14

-48

1

56

-79

72

- Female

189

94

109

115

65

87

47

98

191

- 15 to 29

-1

-3

26

-69

-27

58

44

4

21

- 30 to 39

-29

-61

-29

-33

-91

-92

-34

-126

-115

- 40 to 49

-50

-117

-85

-101

-143

-139

-107

-166

-128

- 50 to 59

152

44

67

62

26

21

35

44

88

- 60 and above

242

234

203

241

252

239

165

264

397

Source: Statistics Korea

22

Economic Bulletin

The number of unemployed persons in February rose 38,000 year-on-year to 1,303,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.7 percent.

The unemployment rate fell among those aged 60 and over, and rose among those aged 30 to 59.

2016

2017

2018

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

2019 Q3

Q4

Feb

Jan

Feb

Number of unemployed (thousands)

1,009

1,023

Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)

34

14

50

19

31

102

50

-76

204

38

- Male

23

12

23

13

15

42

24

-57

112

36

- Female

11

1

27

6

17

60

25

-19

92

2

Unemployment rate (%)

3.7

3.7

3.8

4.3

3.9

3.8

3.4

4.6

4.5

4.7

(Seasonally adjusted)

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.8

4.0

3.8

3.6

4.4

3.7

- 15 to 29

9.8

9.8

9.5

10.0

10.1

9.4

8.3

9.8

8.9

9.5

- 30 to 39

3.1

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.6

3.0

3.2

3.0

3.5

- 40 to 49

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.8

- 50 to 59

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.9

3.2

- 60 and above

2.7

2.9

3.1

5.4

2.5

2.3

2.4

8.0

7.4

6.8

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

1,073 1,181 1,105 1,065

942 1,265 1,224 1,303

Source: Statistics Korea

Unemployment rate (%)

6

5

4

3

Seasonally adjusted rate Original data

2 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

March 2019

23

The Green Book

The economically inactive population in February decreased 11,000 from a year earlier to 16,734,000, and the labor force participation rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 62.3 percent.

The number of persons economically inactive due to rest (up 139,000) and old age (up 25,000) increased, and those due to education (down 135,000) and housework (down 143,000) decreased. Job seekers were up by 120,000.

2016

2017

2018

Annual Annual Annual

Economically inactive population (millions)

Q1

Q2

2019 Q3

Q4

Feb

Jan

Feb

16.19

16.18

16.29 16.62 16.02 16.13 16.38 16.74 16.86 16.73

Labor force participation rate (%)

62.8

63.2

63.1

62.3

63.7

63.5

63.0

62.0

61.9

62.3

(Seasonally adjusted)

62.8

63.2

63.1

63.3

63.1

63.1

63.2

63.0

63.5

63.3

Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)

102

-5

104

68

110

126

112

247

23

-11

- Childcare

-79

-96

-76

-80

-87

-86

-50

-66

-40

-12

- Housework

50

8

76

52

85

94

75

90

-65

-143

- Education

-51

-91

-106

-58

-62

-128

-176

30

-158

-135

- Old age

109

81

15

35

6

16

4

57

22

25

- Rest

34

108

118

107

127

137

103

123

133

139

- Job seeking

20

45

24

15

17

2

64

70

101

120

Source: Statistics Korea

Labor force participation rate (%)

65

64

63

62

61

60

Seasonally adjusted rate Original data

59 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)

24

Economic Bulletin

9. ‌ Financial markets 9.1 Stock market KOSPI fell 0.4 percent in February amid increasing concerns about a global economic slowdown. KOSDAQ continued to rise, going up 2.0 percent, backed by foreign investment.

(Closing rate)

KOSPI Jan 2019 Feb 2019

KOSDAQ 1

Change

Jan 2019 Feb 2019

Change1

Stock price index (points)

2,205.0

2,195.4

-9.6 (-0.4%)

717

731

14 (2.0%)

Market capitalization (trillion won)

1455.5

1,448.8

-6.7 (-0.5%)

242.2

249.2

7 (2.9%)

5.6

5.6

0 (0.0%)

3.7

4.0

0.3 (8.1%)

36.9

36.8

-0.1 (-0.3%)

10.9

11.0

0.1 (0.9%)

Daily trade (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)

1. Change from the end of the previous month as of end-February 2019 Source: Korea Exchange

Stock prices (monthly average, points)

2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600

KOSPI KOSDAQ

300 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Korea Exchange

9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate rose 1.1 percent in February to 1,124.7 won as the dollar strengthened amid concerns over an economic slowdown in the EU and China.

The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell 0.7 percent to 1,015.5 won as the yen weakened against the dollar.

March 2019

25

The Green Book

(Closing rate1)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Jan

Feb

Change2

1,055.4

1,099.3

1,172.5

1,207.7

1,070.5

1,115.7

1112.7

1,124.7

-1.1

100 Yen-Won 1,002.3

913.0

974.1

1,035.4

949.3

1,008.9

1023.0

1,015.5

0.7

Dollar-Won

2019

1. The exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:30 p.m., local time.

2. Appreciation from the end of the previous month as of end-February 2019 (%) Source: Bank of Korea

Foreign exchange rates (month-end, â‚Š)

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

Dollar-Won 100 Yen-Won

800 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Bank of Korea

9.3 Bond market Korea treasury yields fluctuated in February: The yields rose on the resuming of US-China trade talks and BOK’s affirmation of no rate cuts in the near future, and fell on concerns about global economic slowdown and failure of US-North Korea summit.

Yield to maturity (m-o-m, basis points)

0.4 (3 yrs), -0.7 (5 yrs), -1.4 (10 yrs), 1.9 (20 yrs), 0.5 (30 yrs) (Closing rate, %)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec

Jan

Feb

2019

Call rate (1 day)

2.77

2.52

2.03

1.52

1.27

1.58

1.89

1.81

1.80

-1.0

CD (91 days)

2.89

2.66

2.13

1.67

1.52

1.66

1.93

1.86

1.89

3.0

Treasury bonds (3 yrs)

2.82

2.86

2.10

1.66

1.64

2.14

1.82

1.81

1.81

0.4

Corporate bonds (3 yrs)

3.29

3.29

2.43

2.11

2.13

2.68

2.29

2.26

2.26

0.5

Treasury bonds (5 yrs)

2.97

3.23

2.28

1.81

1.80

2.34

1.88

1.88

1.88

-0.7

Change1

1. Basis points, change from the previous month as of end-February 2019 Source: Bank of Korea

26

Economic Bulletin

Interest rates (monthly average, yearly, %)

8 7 6 5 4 3 2

Overnight call rate (daily)

1

3-yr Treasury bond yield 3-yr corporate bond yield

0 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Bank of Korea

9.4 Money supply and money market M2 (monthly average) in December rose 6.8 percent from a year ago, continuing upward trends since September 2017.

(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

2018

M12

6.6

3.8

9.5

10.9

18.6

15.4

9.2

2.7

1.9

846.1

M2

4.2

5.2

4.8

6.6

8.6

7.3

5.5

6.8

6.8

2,699.9

Lf 3

5.3

7.8

6.9

7.0

9.7

8.1

6.7

7.5

7.6

3,809.0

Nov

Dec

Dec 1

1. Balance at end-December 2018, trillion won 2. M1 excludes corporate MMFs and individual MMFs, and includes CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) Source: Bank of Korea

Bank deposits fell in January (up 14.7 trillion won → down 13.6 trillion won) as instant access deposits shrank (down 19.8 trillion won). Time deposits increased (up 3.1 trillion won) as money flowed in from households and local government funds.

Asset management company (AMC) deposits rose (down 10.0 trillion won → up 22.6 trillion won) as money market funds (MMFs) increased (up 15.7 trillion won) due to the inflows of corporate funds and government funds.

(Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

2018 Nov

2019

Dec

Jan

Jan1

Bank deposits

58.9

37.0

41.0 115.4 100.3

80.8

79.5

0.2

14.7

-13.6 1,629.4

AMC deposits

-16.6

18.8

17.7

47.6

27.9

-1.2

-10.0

22.6 573.6

42.4

44.4

1. Balance at end-January 2018 Source: Bank of Korea

March 2019

27

The Green Book

Total money supply (y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)

35 30 25 20 15 10

Reserve money M1

5 0 2009.1

Lf

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Bank of Korea

Deposits in financial institutions (m-o-m, end of month balance, trillion won)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Bank of Korea

28

Economic Bulletin

10. Balance ‌ of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in January posted a surplus of US $2.77 billion, staying in the black for 81 consecutive months.

Goods account surpluses grew at a slower pace month-on-month from US $6.53 billion to US $5.61 billion.

Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) -1.4 (Dec 2018) →-5.4 (Jan 2019)

Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) 1.6 (Dec 2018) →-2.0 (Jan 2019)

Export growth by item in January (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis)

13.4 (automobiles), 1.5 (machinery), -5.3 (petroleum products), -17.8 (vessels), -23.3 (semiconductors)

Import growth by category in January (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) 0.1 (commodities), -9.0 (capital goods), 8.6 (consumer goods)

Services account deficits decreased month-on-month from US $4.44 billion to US $3.61 billion.

Services balance (US $ billion, Dec 2018 → Jan 2019)

-2.20 → -1.86 (travel), -0.57 → -0.28 (transportation), 0.91 → 0.93 (construction), -0.54 → -0.49 (intellectual property rights), -0.76 → -0.85 (manufacturing), -1.31 → -1.06 (others)

Surpluses in the primary income account increased from US $1.16 billion to US $1.40 billion, and deficits in the secondary income account decreased from US $1.62 billion to US $0.63 billion.

(US $ billion)

2016

2017

Annual Annual

Q3

2018 Q4

1

Annual

Q1

1

Q2

1

Q3

1

2019 Q4

1

1

Dec

Jan

1

Jan1

Current account

97.92 75.23 25.94 18.85 76.41 11.65 17.25 28.12 19.39 4.82 2.64 2.77

- Goods balance

116.46 113.59 33.09 28.50 111.87 22.53 29.95 34.72 24.67 6.53 7.55 5.61

- Services balance

-17.34 -36.73 -8.62 -10.61 -29.74 -9.31 -6.49 -7.61 -6.33 -1.95 -4.44 -3.61

- ‌ Primary income balance

4.57

- ‌ Secondary income balance

-5.77 -6.96 -2.47 -1.98 -8.50 -2.88 -1.99 -1.82 -1.81 -0.80 -1.62 -0.63

5.34

3.94

2.94

2.78 1.31 -4.22 2.83 2.86 1.04 1.16 1.40

1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

March 2019

29

The Green Book

Current account balance (US $ billion)

18 15 12 9 6 3

Current account Goods account Services account

0 -3 -6 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

Travel balance (US $ billion)

4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2

Travel revenue Travel payment Travel balance

-3 -4 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in January posted an outflow of US $3.00 billion.

Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion)

7.03 (Aug 2018) → 9.78 (Sep) → 10.28 (Oct) → 3.87 (Nov) → 5.44 (Dec) → 3.00 (Jan 2019) * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows.

Net outflows in foreign direct investment (FDI) increased from a year earlier in January (US $0.24 billion → US $1.67 billion) as Korean FDI (US $1.56 billion → US $3.27 billion) rose faster than inbound FDI (US $1.32 billion → US $1.60 billion).

30

Economic Bulletin

Net outflows increased year-on-year in portfolio investment (US $3.34 billion → US $4.82 billion) as foreign investment in Korean shares declined (US $7.10 billion → US $1.07 billion) faster than Korean investment in foreign shares fell (US $10.44 billion → US $5.88 billion).

Inflows slowed year-on-year in financial derivatives investment (US $1.31 billion → US $0.16 billion) and rose in other investment (US $0.15 billion → US $3.49 billion).

Current account surpluses will slightly improve in February in year-on-year terms compared with the previous month given a rise in trade surpluses (US $2.80 billion in February 2018 → US $3.10 billion in February 2019).

Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion)

15 12 9 6 3 0

Capital & financial account

-3

Portfolio investment

-6

Direct investment Financial derivatives

-9 -12 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)

March 2019

31

The Green Book

11. ‌ Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices in February rose 0.4 percent from previous month and 0.5 percent from the same period of the previous year.

(Percentage change)

2018 Apr May Jun

Jul

2019

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

Feb

Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

0.2

0.0 -0.2 -0.2

0.9

0.8

-0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1

0.4

(y-o-y)

1.5

1.5

1.4

2.1

2.0

0.5

1.5

1.1

2.0

1.3

0.8

Source: Statistics Korea

Consumer price inflation (%)

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Consumer price inflation (y-o-y) Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)

-1 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

Fresh food prices fell (up 2.5% in January → down 1.4% in February, y-o-y) as vegetable and meat prices declined.

Fresh food prices in February (m-o-m/y-o-y, %)

1.9/-1.7 (agricultural products), 1.7/-15.1 (vegetables), 0.0/-1.6 (meat)

Domestic oil prices declined at a faster pace compared to a year ago (down 9.7% in January → down 11.3% in February, y-o-y).

Public service prices continued to fall (down 0.3% in January → down 0.3% in February, y-o-y) due to the expanded coverage of national health insurance and low mobile communications costs.

Personal service prices continued to rise (up 2.5% in January → up 2.5% in February, y-o-y).

32

Economic Bulletin

Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total

Agricultural, Manufactured Public Housing Public Personal Oil livestock & utilities rents services services fishery products products products

Jan (y-o-y, %)

0.8

2.5

-0.7

-9.7

1.4

0.2

-0.3

2.5

Feb (y-o-y, %)

0.5

-1.4

-0.8

-11.3

1.3

0.1

-0.3

2.5

-

-0.11

-0.25

-0.51

0.05

0.01

-0.04

0.81

- Contribution (%p) Source: Statistics Korea

Core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products, grew somewhat in February (up 1.2% → up 1.3%, y-o-y).

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2018 Jul

2019

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec

Jan

Feb

Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 0.8

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

Consumer prices excluding food and energy

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.0

Source: Statistics Korea

In February basic necessities price inflation stayed stable at 0.0 percent due to low oil and fresh food prices. Fresh food price inflation fell for the first time in 7 months (down 5.2%, y-o-y).

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

2018

2019

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Consumer prices for basic necessities

1.1

1.5

2.5

2.6

2.3

1.3

0.4

0.0

Fresh food prices

-1.3

4.8

11.0

11.2

10.5

6.6

1.2

-5.2

Source: Statistics Korea

Contribution to consumer price inflation (%p)

5

Personal services

3

Public services Housing rents 1

Public utilities Manufactured products Agricultural, livestock & fishery products

-1 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)

March 2019

33

The Green Book

Prices (y-o-y , %)

9

6

3

0

Consumer price inflation Core inflation

-3

-6

Producer price inflation

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Sources: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends), Bank of Korea (producer prices)

11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices rose in February due to OPEC’s output cuts and as global financial markets became stable.

Dubai crude (US $/barrel)

62.35 (1st week Feb) → 63.61 (2nd week) → 66.79 (3rd week) → 65.85 (4th week)

International oil prices (US $/B)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20

WTI Dubai crude

0 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

34

Economic Bulletin

(US $/barrel, period average)

2017

2019

2018

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec

Jan

Feb

Dubai crude

53.2

69.7

64.0

72.1

74.2

68.3

57.3

59.1

64.6

WTI crude

50.9

64.9

62.9

67.9

69.4

59.3

49.0

51.6

55.0

Brent crude

54.7

71.7

67.2

75.0

75.8

68.6

57.7

60.2

64.4

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall in February due to retail competition.

Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter)

1,344.0 (1st week Feb) → 1,342.7 (2nd week) → 1,342.9 (3rd week) → 1,345.9 (4th week)

International gasoline prices (US $/barrel)

60.0 (4th week Jan) → 58.7 (5th week) → 61.4 (1st week Feb) → 62.8 (2nd week)

Dollar-won exchange rate (won)

1,126 (4th week Jan) → 1,117 (5th week) → 1,117 (1st week Feb) → 1,123 (2nd week)

(Won/liter, period average)

2017

2019

2018

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec

Jan

Feb

Gasoline prices

1,491

1,581

1,558

1,580

1,622

1,565

1,433

1,351

1,344

Diesel prices

1,283

1,392

1,353

1,380

1,423

1,411

1,324

1,249

1,243

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

Dubai crude prices and import prices (thousand won/B)

Dubai crude (import prices, left) Dubai international prices (right)

(US $/B)

160

160

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

March 2019

35

The Green Book

International corn, wheat and soybean prices declined in February due to stable supplies.

International grain prices in February (monthly average prices, m-o-m, %) -0.9 (corn), -2.9 (wheat), -0.1 (soybeans)

Copper and nickel prices rose due to supply shortages and as US-China trade talks resumed. Aluminum prices went up as investors’ demand grew amid low prices.

Nonferrous metal prices in February (monthly average prices, m-o-m, %) 5.8 (copper), 0.7 (aluminum), 10.4 (nickel)

(Period average)

2017 Reuters Index1 (Sep 18, 1931=100)

2019

2018

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Dec

Jan

Feb

2,472

2,337

2,342

2,317

2,309

2,382

2,373

2,386

2,378

1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS

International commodity prices (points)

(points)

4,000

500 450

3,000

400 350 300

2,000

250 200

1,000

150

CRB (left) Reuters index (right)

100

0 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Korea PDS *‌ ‌ CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

36

Economic Bulletin

12. Real ‌ estate market 12.1 Housing market Housing prices nationwide fell 0.12 percent month-on-month in February.

Housing prices declined 0.13 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area which includes Seoul (down 0.19%), Gyeonggi Province (down 0.11%) and Incheon (down 0.05%).

Housing prices fell 0.04 percent in the five metropolitan cities and 0.14 percent in the eight provinces.

Housing prices in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %)

Busan (-0.13), Daegu (0.08), Gwangju (0.14), Daejeon (0.12), Ulsan (-0.43)

Housing sales prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Dec

2019 Feb

Annual

Jan

Feb

Nationwide

1.7

3.5

0.7

1.5

1.1

-0.01

0.20

-0.26

-0.15 -0.12

Seoul metropolitan area

1.5

4.4

1.3

2.4

3.3

0.07

0.46

-0.28

-0.15 -0.13

- Seoul

1.1

4.6

2.1

3.6

6.2

0.04

0.94

-0.39

-0.20 -0.19

· Gangnam

1.2

5.2

2.5

4.4

6.5

-0.07

1.20

-0.60

-0.31 -0.29

· Gangbuk

1.1

3.9

1.8

2.9

5.9

0.16

0.67

-0.17

-0.09 -0.08

1.9

2.7

0.2

0.7

-0.9

-0.08 -0.04

-0.25

-0.15 -0.10

1

2

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

1. Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Housing sales prices (m-o-m, %)

3

2

1

0

Nationwide

-1

Seoul metropolitan area Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

-2 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

March 2019

37

The Green Book

Housing rental prices nationwide declined 0.22 percent month-on-month in February.

Housing rental prices fell 0.30 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and declined 0.15 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area.

Housing rental prices in major districts in the Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)

Gangnam (-1.57), Seocho (-0.96), Songpa(-0.71), Gangdong (-1.15), Guangmyung (-1.08)

Housing rental prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014 2015 2016 2017

2018

2019

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Dec

Feb Annual Jan

Feb

Nationwide

3.4

4.8

1.3

0.6

-1.8 -0.19 -0.09 -0.44 -0.22 -0.22

Seoul metropolitan area

4.7

7.1

2.0

1.4

-1.5 -0.19 -0.09 -0.58 -0.28 -0.30

- Seoul

3.6

7.2

2.0

2.0

0.3 -0.13 0.17 -0.75 -0.32 -0.43

¡ Gangnam

3.3

7.9

1.8

2.6

-0.3 -0.19 0.17 -1.10 -0.50 -0.60

¡ Gangbuk

3.8

6.5

2.1

1.5

0.8 -0.06 0.17 -0.38 -0.13 -0.24

2.2

2.8

0.7

-0.1

-2.1 -0.18 -0.09 -0.31 -0.16 -0.15

1

2

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

1. Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board

Housing rental prices (m-o-m, %)

3

2

1

0

Nationwide

-1

Seoul metropolitan area Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area

-2 2009.1

2010.1

2001.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

There were 50,286 housing transactions in January, down 9.7 percent from a month earlier (55,681) and down 28.5 percent from a year ago (70,354).

Housing transactions

(Thousands)

2016 2017 1

2018

1

2019

1

Annual Annual Annual Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Nationwide

88

79

71

70

70

93

72

68

65

64

66

76

93

65

56

50

1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

38

Economic Bulletin

12.2 Land market Land prices nationwide rose 0.31 percent month-on-month in January.

Land prices rose 0.36 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area which includes Seoul (up 0.39%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.32%) and Incheon (up 0.34%).

Land price growth slowed to 0.24 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area.

Land prices in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) Daeugu (0.39), Gwangju (0.43), North Chungcheng Province (0.21)

Land prices

(Percentage change from previous period)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual

2019

Q3

Q4

Jan

Dec

Jan

Nationwide

1.96

2.40

2.70

3.88

4.58

1.25

1.22

0.33

0.34

0.31

Seoul

2.66

2.69

2.97

4.32

6.11

1.87

1.74

0.42

0.43

0.39

Gyeonggi

1.24

1.73

2.23

3.45

4.42

1.16

1.19

0.26

0.36

0.32

Incheon

1.35

1.95

1.74

3.10

3.59

0.94

1.14

0.21

0.33

0.34

Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area

2.06

2.77

2.97

3.97

3.65

0.89

0.83

0.32

0.25

0.24

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

There were 240,000 land transactions in January, down 1.4 percent from previous month (243,000) and down 19.7 percent from a year ago (298,000).

Land transactions (m-o-m, %)

Incheonl (-8.0), Busan (-20.3), Gwangju (-15.1)

Land prices 6 5 4 3 2 1

Metropolitan city

0

City County National average

-1 -2 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

March 2019

39

The Green Book

Land and consumer prices (y-o-y, %)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10

Land price inflation

-20

Consumer price inflation

1977

1982

1987

1992

1997

2002

2007

2012

2017

Sources: Korea Appraisal Board (land prices), Statistics Korea (consumer prices)

Vacant land transactions decreased 4.5 percent from previous month (98,000 → 94,000) accounting for 39.0 percent of the total land transactions. The index fell 6.1 percent compared with a year ago (100,000).

Land transactions

(Land lots, thousands)

2017

2018 1

2019

Annual

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

Oct

Nov Dec Jan

276

298

252

320

265

271

255

272

248

232

282

249

243

240

Seoul

32

35

31

43

26

29

24

34

28

32

35

22

21

22

Gyeonggi

75

81

75

91

76

76

75

85

80

78

92

77

67

68

Incheon

16

16

15

15

16

18

15

12

12

12

15

14

15

14

Nationwide

1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

Land transactions (thousand ㎥)

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area Seoul metropolitan area

50,000

0 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Korea Appraisal Board

40

Economic Bulletin

13. ‌ Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output went up 0.8 percent month-on-month in January. Mining & manufacturing (up 0.5%), construction (up 2.1%), services (up 0.9%) and public administration (up 0.6%) all increased. Compared to a year ago, the index rose 0.6 percent.

Index of all industry production (%)

15

10

5

0

-5

Industrial output (y-o-y) -10

Industrial output (m-o-m)

2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index declined 0.1 points month-on-month to 99.1. Three components of the index rose, while the other four either fell or remained unchanged.

Components of the coincident composite index in January (m-o-m, %)

value of construction completed (1.2), retail sales (0.3), imports (1.0), mining & manufacturing production (-0.9), nonfarm payroll employment (-0.1),) service output (0.0), domestic shipments (0.0),

The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.4 points from previous month to 98.5. One component of the index rose, while the other seven declined.

Components of the leading composite index in January (m-o-m)

ratio of export to import prices (0.6%), inventory circulation indicator (-1.1%p), consumer expectations index (-3.0p), domestic shipments of machinery (-2.5%), value of construction orders received (-2.6%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-4.1%p), KOSPI (-0.8%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.17%p)

March 2019

41

The Green Book

2018 Jun

Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)

Jul

Aug

Sep

2019 Oct

1

Nov

1

Jan1

Dec

-0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.4

0.8

-1.0

-0.3

0.8

0.2

1.4

1.6

-4.9

7.6

0.2

0.4

0.6

109.5 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.8 110.0

Coincident composite index (2015=100) (m-o-m, %)

0.0

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 100.3 100.0

0.1

99.9

99.7

99.6

99.3

99.2

99.1

(m-o-m, p)

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

113.0 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.2 113.3 113.4 113.4

Leading composite index (2015=100) (m-o-m, %)

0.2

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 100.4 100.3 (m-o-m, p) -0.1 -0.1

99.9

99.6

99.3

99.1

98.9

98.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

1. Preliminary

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (points)

110

105

100

95

90 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

2017.1

2018.1

2019.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (points)

110

105

100

95

90 2009.1

2010.1

2011.1

2012.1

2013.1

2014.1

2015.1

2016.1

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)

42

Economic Bulletin

01 ‌ 2019 work report 02 Measures to boost ventures

March 2019

Policy Issue 43

Policy Issue

2019 Work Report Government to promote investment and job creation, as well as support the working class and local economies

The Ministry of Economy and Finance will pursue the following over 2019 to help boost the economy and support the working class and local economies.

1. Promote investment and support job creation - ‌ Promote corporate investment in large-scale projects: 8.3 trillion won worth of corporate projects, the semiconductor cluster development project1) and more than 6.4 trillion won worth of private investment in public projects - ‌ Increase public investment: Expand SOC and energy investment by public institutions to 53 trillion won, and encourage government-owned enterprises to invest in public projects by allowing dividend cuts for government shares - ‌ Have frontloaded 61 percent of fiscal spending in the first half, focusing on job creation projects and SOC projects - ‌ Promote the ‘mutually beneficial’ employment model2) : Provide a support package which includes cheap rent for industrial sites, corporate tax cuts and support for facilities construction, as well as daycare centers in work places, housing facilities within the industrial site and job training programs 1) ‌ 120 trillion won worth of investment to be made over the next 10 years in the development of the cluster near the Seoul metropolitan area 2) ‌ Which refers to low wage local jobs created according to the agreement reached among management, labor and local governments

44

Economic Bulletin

- ‌ Increase social service jobs: Add 29,000 caring jobs for which demand is growing, such as day care jobs and elderly care jobs, and 66,000 other social service jobs, such as first aid jobs and physical activity instructors for the physically challenged

2. ‌ Improve regulations and develop new industries - ‌ Promote regulatory sandboxes: Work on commercializing 100 new technologies under regulatory sandboxes this year - ‌ Work actively on regulatory reform: Work on whether or not the regulations should exist, starting with those on national contracts and FX transactions - Improve regulations on new industries, including remote healthcare - ‌ Strengthen support for the four promising services3) and the four new industries4) - ‌ Work to boost the four major manufacturing industries5): Work on shortterm measures, long-term measures including plans to 2030, and export promotion measures

3. Support the working class - ‌ Expand tax support for spending on employee welfare: Large corporations, if they have invested in SME employee welfare funds, to receive a tax deduction of additional 10 percent for their investments - ‌ Support small merchants: Have lowered credit card processing fees and introduced a new payment system with no processing fees, Zero Pay, expand traditional market gift certificates, as well as those for local products, and decide on small-merchant-only businesses in the second half - ‌ Strengthen social safety nets: Draw up measures to help young adults from low income families have opportunities, increase EITC, and expand basic social security benefits and retirement pensions - ‌ Promote a social economy: Increase funds6), and promote social services offered by local social economy activist groups, such as voluntary care giving and school meal preparation

4. Work to boost local economies - ‌ Continue with the 192 local SOC projects, 8.6 trillion won worth of government investment, and work on the government’s local development plan, the Initiative for Balanced Regional Development7) - ‌ Work to increase local government tax revenues, and seek gradual transfer of central government responsibilities to local governments - Work on the use of national properties for the 11 land development projects - ‌ Identify citizen safety as the first priority of public institutions, and revise their pay systems to reflect different duties

3) Tourism, healthcare, contents and logistics 4) Smart factories, future cars, fintech and bio-health 5) Cars, vessels, display panels and petrochemicals 6) ‌ The Korea Credit Guarantee Fund to increase its social economy funds to 500 billion won by 2022, and the government to raise 300 billion won worth of new funds by 2023 7) Revise the current budget review system to fast get started on the projects

March 2019

45

Policy Issue

Measures to Boost Ventures

The government unveiled its measures to boost ventures on March 6, 2019, which covers plans to promote high-tech startups and venture capital, as well as plans to support scaleups and develop secondary markets. The following is a summary of the measures:

1. Promote high-tech startups - Promote startups in bio-health, fintech, AI and ICT 1) Bio-health: ‌ Promote the sharing of medical laboratories and research data with startups, help commercialize their products and services, and provide financial support worth 600 billion won

2) ‌ Fintech: Run testbeds for 20 new services in April, improve P2P related regulations, revise rules regulating financial institutions’ investment in fintech firms, and launch 15 billion won worth of fintech funds 3) ‌ AI and ICT: Introduce a ‘Future Unicorn 50’ program, in which 50 promising ICT startups are selected every year to be provided with across the board support, including financial support and professional consultation services, and provide AI startups with 38.8 billion won worth of support over 2019 - Promote tech professional startups

46

1) ‌ Financial support: Invest 600 billion won by 2022 in funds raised to help commercialize new technologies, provide tech startups with 190 billion won worth of guarantees, and launch 23 billion won worth of new funds to support high tech companies in Daeduck Valley Economic Bulletin

2) ‌ Further develop TIPS1): Break down TIPS into three (Pre-TIPS, TIPS and Post-TIPS) and expand the program to 500 startups with TIPS and 50 startups with Post-TIPS by 2022 3) ‌ Promote professor startups, as well as student startups: Reform evaluation systems in universities in a way to encourage professors and students to try commercializing their research outcomes

2. Promote venture capital - Work to increase private investment in ventures

1) ‌ Introduce Business Development Company (BDC)2) to venture capital: Work on tax support for BDC venture capital investing more than 40 percent of the fund in startups 2) Introduce Simple Agreement for Future Equity (SAFE)3) 3) ‌ Attract small investors: Allow a pool of small investors to invest in private equity fund of funds - Promote angel investment and crowdfunding

1) ‌ Angel investment: Provide angel investors with an up to 200 percent guarantee for the amount they invested, and Korea Technology Finance Corporation to launch a special guarantee program worth 10 billion won for the purpose 2) ‌ Crowdfunding: Raise the fundraising ceiling from 0.7 billion won to 1.5 billion won, expand companies eligible for crowdfunding campaigns from companies with up to seven years of business operation to all SMEs, and give capital gains tax exemptions for investment in tech SMEs with up to three years of operation

3. ‌ Support transition from startups to scaleups, and promote their going into overseas markets - Support transition from startups to scaleups

1) ‌ Strengthen the Industrial Bank of Korea’s (IBK’s) scaleup support program: Introduce a Silicon Valley Bank model4) to the IBK, in which the bank will work with major venture capital firms to more actively participate in scaleup support 2) ‌ Launch scaleup funds: Raise scaleup funds worth 12 trillion won over the four years from now, and work for new investment worth five trillion won a year to flow into ventures in 2022 3) ‌ Provide guarantees through pilot programs designed to help brilliant ventures faced with deficits, such as 10 billion won worth of guarantees per company through Korea Technology Finance Corporation, as well as

1) Tech Incubator Program for Startups 2) ‌ An organization that invests in small companies and helps them grow in the initial stage of their development, its shares being listed on major stock exchange and traded 3) ‌ An investment contract between a startup and an investor, where the investor provides capital to the startup and the startup provides the investor with a warrant to issue stocks at a later time 4) ‌ Banks work together with major venture capital firms to extend loans to the companies funded by those venture capital firms

March 2019

47

Policy Issue

promote intellectual property (IP)-based financing by doubling the size of IP funds to 220 billion won - Promote going into overseas markets

1) ‌ Attract foreign venture capital: Increase the size of the foreign venture capital funds (2.1 trillion won) by 300 billion won, and promote Korean ventures’ cooperating with global companies for overseas market entry 2) ‌ Open venture support centers in Seattle and New Deli in June and August, respectively, and transform 70 overseas spaces owned by the public sector into offices for Korean ventures 3) ‌ Help Korean ventures go into the ASEAN countries and Taiwan, of which the market Korean ventures want to enter, and support exchanges between Korean startups and startups in those countries

4. Develop secondary markets - Promote corporate investment, as well as venture capital investment

1) ‌ Ease corporate shareholding regulations and give tax incentives: Work to raise large conglomerates’ subsidiary shareholding ceiling and allow the holding of non-affiliate stocks, and give capital gains tax exemptions to venture holding companies for the return on their venture capital investment 2) ‌ Encourage large enterprises and financial institutions to launch a joint fund of funds: The joint fund will invest in ventures, and the corporate investors will be given the first priority if there are M&A deals for the ventures 3) ‌ Promote M&As: Raise one trillion won worth of new M&A funds by 2021, as well as increase the size of the current M&A funds worth 1.3 trillion won as of now

- Develop secondary markets for angel investment

1) ‌ Raise 200 billion won worth of funds over the four years from now to purchase shares held by angel investors 2) Give capital gains tax exemptions for angel investment

5. Create a startup-friendly environment - ‌ Promote the use of regulatory sandboxes: Work for startups to produce more than 100 cases of successfully applying regulatory sandboxes - ‌ Work to attract high quality human resources to ventures, as well as grow high tech professionals: Increase capital gains tax exemptions for stock options from 20 million won to 30 million won, and grow as many as 10,000 AI and data analytics professionals by 2023 - ‌ Build a startup complex, and strengthen the startup centers in the Pangyo valley

48

Economic Bulletin

01 Korea to help exporters amid slowing global demand 02 External debt amounts to US $440.6 billion in 2018, soundness indicators stable 03 Korea to cut stock transaction tax 04 Korean FDI posts US $49.78 billion in 2018 05 Korea grows 2.7% in 2018 (preliminary)

Economic News Briefing

Economic News Briefing

Korea to help exporters amid slowing global demand The Korean government on March 4 unveiled its measures to help exporters, focusing on financial difficulties amid slowing global demand, as well as on supporting export hopefuls. Following is a summary of the measures.

- ‌ Help exporters faced with financial difficulties: The government will increase its support for export financing by 3 trillion won this year to 235 trillion won, and will introduce new guarantee programs, which include 100 billion won worth of contract-based guarantees available to export hopefuls with written export contracts and 1.3 trillion won worth of buyer credit guarantees.

- ‌ Help diversify markets: A center for plant construction will be open in Uzbekistan this year, as well as the ASEAN Desk will be added to KOTRA (Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency).

- ‌ Improve support system: The current support systems will be transformed into one working on different demand, such as providing export hopefuls with professional assistance in their following regulatory procedures needed to export their products and launching a 3 trillion won worth of fund to help medium-sized exporters.

External debt amounts to US $440.6 billion in 2018, soundness indicators stable Korea’s external debt amounted to US $440.6 billion as of the end of 2018, an increase of US $28.6 billion from a year ago. Short-term debt amounted to US $126.6 billion, up US $10.6 billion year-on-year, and long-term debt was US $314.0 billion, up US $17.9 billion from a year ago. External debt rose due mostly to increased bond issuance by banks and the public sector.

External debt, 2018

(US $billion)

Mar

Jun

2018 Sep Dec

412.0

427.0

433.3

441.7

440.6

-1.1

28.6

104.8

116.0

120.5

125.0

127.7

126.6

-1.1

10.6

277.4

296.1

306.5

308.3

314.0

314.0

0

17.9

2015

2016

2017

Total debt

396.1

382.2

-Short-term

104.3

-Long-term

291.7

Change Change (q-o-q) (y-o-y)

* Source: International Investment Position (IIP) at the end of 2018 (Bank of Korea, February 27, 2019)

External debt soundness indicators remained stable, as the ratio of short-term external debt to total external debt stayed low at 28.7 percent and the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves at 31.4 percent.

50

Economic Bulletin

Korea to cut stock transaction tax The government will cut taxes on stock transactions this year to support the secondary market for venture firms, as well as promote venture capital. The new tax rates are as follows:

- ‌ A cut of 0.05 percentage points for stocks listed in KOSPI and KOSDAQ to 0.10 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively - A cut of 0.05 percentage points for unlisted stocks to 0.45 percent - ‌ A cut of 0.2 percentage points for KONEX stocks to 0.10 percent to promote venture capital - ‌ The special tax for rural development of 0.15 percent, levied on KOSPI transactions, to remain unchanged

The government will also change capital gains taxes on stock transactions, and will impose taxes only on net gains earned throughout the year, losses deducted from the taxable sum. The change will allow transfer of losses between domestic and foreign stock transactions, and will take effect from January 1, 2020.

Korean FDI posts US $49.78 billion in 2018 Korean FDI amounted to US $49.78 billion in 2018, rising 11.6 percent compared with US $44.60 billion of the previous year. Korean FDI flowed mainly into manufacturing (32.9%) and finance & insurance (32.6%) in Asia (34.1%), Europe (23.5%) and North America (22.8%).

Korea grows 2.7% in 2018 (preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 2.7 percent in 2018, according to the preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on March 5.

On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries grew 1.5 percent.

Manufacturing grew 3.6 percent led by electrical and electronic devices.

Construction fell 4.2 percent as building construction and civil engineering works both declined. Services grew 2.8 percent backed by healthcare & welfare services.

March 2019

51

Economic News Briefing

On the expenditure side, private consumption and government consumption increased 2.8 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. Construction investment decreased 4.0 percent as building construction and civil engineering works both fell. Facility investment fell 1.6 percent due to weak machinery. Exports increased 4.2 percent backed by semiconductors, and imports increased 1.7 percent amid increasing demand for crude oil, coal and petroleum products.

GDP by production and expenditure* 2017

1

(Percentage change from previous period)

2018

2018 (q-o-q)

1

Annual Annual

1

20181(y-o-y)3

2

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

GDP

3.1

2.7

1.0

0.6

0.6

1.0

2.8

2.8

2.0

3.1

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries

0.3

1.5

6.0

-2.8

-5.5

6.1

4.1

1.2

-2.4

3.2

Manufacturing

4.4

3.6

1.6

0.6

2.3

0.9

2.7

3.2

2.8

5.5

Construction

7.1

-4.2

2.1

-3.1

-5.7

1.0

0.2

-1.6

-8.1

-5.8

Services4

2.1

2.8

1.1

0.5

0.5

0.6

3.2

3.0

2.4

2.7

Private consumption

2.6

2.8

0.7

0.3

0.5

1.0

3.5

2.8

2.5

2.5

Government consumption

3.4

5.6

2.2

0.3

1.5

3.0

5.8

4.8

4.6

7.1

Facilities investment

14.6

-1.6

3.4

-5.7

-4.4

4.4

7.3

-3.0

-7.4

-2.7

Construction investment

7.6

-4.0

1.8

-2.1

-6.7

1.2

1.8

-1.5

-8.9

-5.9

Intellectual property investment

3.0

1.9

0.3

-0.7

0.9

0.1

3.5

2.2

1.6

0.6

Exports

1.9

4.2

4.4

0.4

3.9

-1.5

1.6

4.8

3.1

7.2

Imports

7.0

1.7

4.9

-3.0

-0.7

1.5

4.2

2.0

-1.8

2.5

*At 2010 chained prices 1. Preliminary 2. Seasonally adjusted 3. Original data 4. ‌ Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & other services are included.

52

Economic Bulletin

01 National accounts 02 Production, shipment and inventory 03 Production capacity and operation ratio 04 Consumer goods sales index 05 Machinery orders received and facility investment index 06 Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 07 Composite indexes of business cycle indicators, CSI and BSI 08 Prices 09 Employment (I) 10 Employment (II) 11 Balance of payments (I) 12 Balance of payments (II) 13 Financial indicators 14 Monetary indicators 15 Exchange rates

Statistical Appendices

Statistical Appendices

1 National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)

Real GDP Period

Agri., fores. & fisheries

Final consumption Private Manufacturing expenditure consumption

Gross fixed capital formation Construction

Facilities

2011

3.7

-2.0

6.5

2.7

2.9

0.8

-3.4

4.7

2012

2.3

-0.9

2.4

2.2

1.9

-0.5

-3.9

0.1 -0.8

2013

2.9

3.1

3.6

2.2

1.9

3.3

5.5

2014

3.3

3.6

3.5

2.0

1.7

3.4

1.1

6.0

2015

2.8

-0.4

1.8

2.4

2.2

5.1

6.6

4.7

5.6

10.3

-1.0

2016

2.9

-2.8

2.4

3.0

2.5

p

3.1

0.3

4.4

2.8

2.6

8.6

7.6

14.6

2018p

2.7

1.5

3.6

3.5

2.8

-2.2

-4.0

-1.6

2011 Ⅰ

4.9

-9.3

11.4

3.3

3.7

-0.7

-8.2

8.3

Ⅱ

3.6

-2.5

6.5

3.3

3.7

2.5

-2.5

8.3

Ⅲ

3.3

-5.8

5.6

2.8

2.5

1.7

-2.2

3.4

Ⅳ

3.0

7.1

3.4

1.7

1.7

-0.3

-2.0

-0.9

2017

2012 Ⅰ

4.9

-9.3

11.4

3.3

3.7

-0.7

-8.2

8.3

Ⅱ

3.6

-2.5

6.5

3.3

3.7

2.5

-2.5

8.3

Ⅲ

3.3

-5.8

5.6

2.8

2.5

1.7

-2.2

3.4

Ⅳ

3.0

7.1

3.4

1.7

1.7

-0.3

-2.0

-0.9

2013 Ⅰ

2.1

-1.2

2.7

1.5

1.5

-3.2

1.2

-12.3

Ⅱ

2.7

0.1

3.6

2.2

1.9

4.2

8.9

-3.2

Ⅲ

3.2

4.3

3.8

2.4

1.9

4.9

7.5

2.3 11.7

Ⅳ

3.5

7.0

4.2

2.6

2.2

6.5

3.5

2014 Ⅰ

3.9

5.9

4.7

2.9

2.8

6.2

4.5

7.5

Ⅱ

3.5

4.5

4.7

1.8

1.7

3.7

0.3

8.1

Ⅲ

3.3

2.7

3.1

2.0

1.4

3.6

2.3

4.3

Ⅳ

2.7

2.4

1.8

1.6

1.1

0.7

-1.7

4.1

2015 Ⅰ

1.1

1.8

1.4

3.8

4.0

5.1

2.6

8.5

Ⅱ

2.4

-3.0

0.9

2.0

1.7

3.8

4.6

4.1

Ⅲ

3.0

0.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

6.0

7.6

6.1

Ⅳ

3.2

-4.0

2.7

3.5

3.5

6.5

9.6

3.5

2016 Ⅰ

3.0

-2.4

2.1

3.0

2.4

3.2

8.4

-3.6

Ⅱ

3.5

1.1

2.7

3.8

3.6

5.2

9.4

-1.6

Ⅲ

2.7

-4.5

1.7

3.3

2.8

5.8

11.0

-2.5

Ⅳ

2.9

1.9

1.4

7.8

11.9

3.3

2.6

-4.6

2017 Ⅰ

2.9

-1.9

4.8

2.2

2.1

11.0

11.3

16.1

Ⅱ

2.8

0.5

3.6

2.5

2.4

10.0

8.5

17.9

p

Ⅲ

3.8

0.4

6.4

3.0

2.6

9.2

8.0

16.3

Ⅳ

2.8

1.5

2.7

3.5

3.4

5.0

3.8

8.6

2018p Ⅰ

2.8

4.1

2.7

4.0

3.5

3.7

1.8

7.3

Ⅱ

2.8

1.2

3.2

3.3

2.8

-1.3

-1.5

-3.0

Ⅲ

2.0

-2.4

2.8

3.0

2.5

-6.6

-8.9

-7.4

Ⅳ

3.1

3.2

5.5

3.6

2.5

-3.8

-5.9

-2.7

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

54

Economic Bulletin

2 Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2015=100)

Production index* Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p

Shipment index*

y-o-y change (%)

102.2 104.7 106.1 98.3 102.3 99.7 108.3 103.4 104.8 105.1 105.4 102.3 106.9 105.2 109.9 98.8 90.6 105.6 99.7 102.6 104.7 102.3 98.0 98.7 104.5 108.9 111.5 100.6 98.7 110.9 104.1 104.8 105.5 104.8 101.2 109.4 99.7 109.3 107.3 105.7 93.1 108.1 106.2 107.1 107.5 108.2 105.2 102.1 112.3 109.4 108.1 105.8

2.2 2.4 1.3 1.1 2.2 1.3 3.8 5.2 2.4 5.4 -2.7 -1.1 2.0 0.1 4.3 -0.8 2.0 2.3 -1.7 5.4 3.2 1.9 3.5 -1.3 -0.6 5.9 6.1 1.8 8.9 5.0 4.4 2.1 0.8 2.4 3.3 10.8 -4.6 0.4 -3.8 5.1 -5.7 -2.5 2.0 2.2 1.9 3.2 4.0 -6.7 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.1

Inventory index*

y-o-y change (%)

101.5 102.7 102.7 98.7 102.0 98.2 107.1 101.6 103.2 102.9 103.1 99.5 103.5 101.4 106.3 97.6 91.3 107.2 100.4 102.1 103.4 100.6 96.3 97.8 102.9 107.1 111.3 97.8 97.2 109.9 102.6 102.3 104.6 101.7 98.9 108.0 96.8 108.0 104.6 102.1 90.9 105.5 101.7 104.6 104.2 102.3 101.6 100.4 108.9 105.9 104.0 101.6

1.5 1.2 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.3 3.2 2.9 1.2 4.8 -3.7 -2.1 0.3 -1.5 3.1 -2.0 1.7 2.9 -1.3 4.1 2.0 0.8 1.8 -1.5 -1.8 5.3 6.0 0.2 6.5 2.5 2.2 0.2 1.2 1.1 2.7 10.4 -5.9 0.8 -6.0 4.4 -6.5 -4.0 -0.9 2.2 -0.4 0.6 2.7 -7.0 12.5 -1.9 -0.6 -0.5

Service production index

y-o-y change (%)

97.5 105.3 113.9 105.7 101.8 100.9 97.5 99.9 101.1 101.3 105.3 108.4 109.1 107.6 113.9 105.5 106.3 105.7 104.2 104.4 101.8 104.0 102.8 100.9 100.7 101.1 97.5 100.6 100.3 99.9 101.8 104.8 101.1 104.0 104.3 101.3 104.8 105.2 105.3 107.8 107.9 108.4 109.5 108.7 109.1 110.8 111.1 107.6 110.3 113.5 113.9 115.1

-2.2 8.0 8.2 9.0 1.4 -0.9 -2.2 -5.5 -0.7 0.4 8.0 8.5 7.9 6.2 8.2 9.2 9.4 9.0 5.7 5.7 1.4 0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 -2.2 -4.6 -5.6 -5.5 -2.3 0.4 -0.7 0.0 1.5 0.4 4.1 4.1 8.0 7.2 7.6 8.5 7.6 3.7 7.9 6.5 6.5 6.2 5.2 7.9 8.2 6.8

y-o-y change (%)

102.6 104.5 106.7 98.7 102.8 102.4 106.6 100.9 104.6 105.1 107.4 103.4 106.9 105.9 110.4 97.4 95.3 103.4 101.4 102.7 104.4 102.1 102.4 102.6 103.5 103.3 112.9 99.5 97.5 105.6 103.1 104.6 106.0 103.6 104.0 107.7 102.2 106.2 113.8 103.0 99.6 107.7 105.9 106.9 108.0 106.3 105.6 105.8 108.1 107.5 115.5 105.1

2.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 3.3 3.0 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.6 0.8 2.5 2.2 0.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.1 3.3 4.5 2.8 3.9 2.3 1.5 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 5.0 -1.3 2.8 0.8 3.5 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.6 1.5 -1.8 5.8 1.2 1.5 2.0

* Including mining, manufacturing, electricity & gas and water industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

March 2019

55

Statistical Appendices

3 Production capacity and operation ratio (constant prices, 2015=100)

Production capacity index* (2010=100) Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 p 2019 1p

Operation ratio index* (2010=100)

y-o-y change (%)

102.1 103.3 103.1 100.9 101.4 102.5 103.5 102.5 102.9 103.6 104.3 102.3 102.5 103.4 104.0 101.0 100.6 101.1 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.5 102.9 103.3 103.5 103.6 102.6 102.3 102.6 102.7 103.0 103.0 103.2 103.5 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.2 102.5 102.4 102.1 102.3 102.3 102.9 103.3 103.3 103.7 103.9 104.1 104.1 103.1

2.1 1.2 -0.2 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.6

y-o-y change (%)

98.9 98.1 98.4 95.8 101.2 96.1 102.5 96.8 99.4 98.9 97.1 94.6 100.6 97.0 101.3 95.7 88.3 103.5 98.5 101.9 103.3 100.1 93.7 94.5 99.9 103.9 103.6 93.6 92.4 104.4 98.5 99.5 100.2 99.0 95.0 102.8 93.0 101.6 96.8 97.0 85.8 100.9 99.6 101.5 100.8 100.0 97.2 93.8 104.3 101.3 98.2 96.7

-1.1 -0.8 0.3 -1.1 -0.1 -2.4 -0.8 1.0 -1.8 2.9 -5.3 -2.3 1.2 -1.9 4.3 -3.5 -0.2 0.4 -3.7 3.6 0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -5.5 -4.9 1.9 0.8 -2.2 4.6 0.9 0.0 -2.4 -3.0 -1.1 1.4 8.8 -6.9 -2.2 -6.6 3.6 -7.1 -3.4 1.1 2.0 0.6 1.0 2.3 -8.8 12.2 -0.3 1.4 -0.3

Capacity utilization rate* (%) 73.4 73.3 73.5 73.6 73.9 73.1 73.1 74.5 72.5 73.3 72.8 72.8 73.9 74.2 73.1 72.8 74.3 73.7 72.4 74.9 74.3 73.9 72.4 73.0 71.0 74.6 73.8 76.2 72.8 74.4 72.5 72.9 72.0 73.1 73.4 73.5 73.9 73.0 71.5 72.8 73.5 72.1 73.5 74.4 73.8 73.9 75.1 73.7 74.4 72.7 72.2 73.1

* Manufacturing industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

56

Economic Bulletin

4 Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2015=100)

2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p

Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods

Total

Period

y-o-y change (%)

103.9 105.9 110.4 99.9 104.3 101.7 109.6 101.3 105.2 105.2 112.0 106.7 110.5 109.2 115.3 99.6 95.6 104.5 102.1 107.3 103.4 102.1 100.8 102.2 108.4 109.1 111.2 103.3 95.2 105.4 103.9 107.6 104.2 104.9 101.3 109.5 108.0 115.0 112.9 105.3 101.7 113.2 109.9 112.8 108.7 110.8 107.0 109.9 113.5 116.2 116.3 109.5

3.9 1.9 4.2 4.7 5.6 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 3.4 2.2 5.3 5.0 3.8 2.9 5.7 2.9 5.3 3.4 4.6 8.8 4.3 5.4 0.0 2.0 2.6 2.0 3.7 -0.4 0.9 1.8 0.3 0.8 2.7 0.5 7.1 -0.4 5.4 1.5 1.9 6.8 7.4 5.8 4.8 4.3 5.6 5.6 0.4 5.1 1.0 3.0 4.0

y-o-y change (%)

104.6 110.1 116.3 99.4 108.8 99.2 111.2 102.8 112.8 111.1 113.9 112.5 119.8 113.7 119.3 92.9 92.8 112.5 103.3 108.4 114.7 103.5 100.9 93.2 107.3 110.6 115.6 94.6 100.0 113.8 108.5 114.1 115.7 114.9 107.1 111.4 104.0 122.8 114.8 110.7 101.9 124.9 120.1 121.0 118.2 122.2 117.8 101.1 116.3 122.8 118.8 107.3

4.6 5.3 5.6 6.7 11.5 0.8 0.3 3.4 3.7 12.0 2.4 9.4 6.2 2.3 4.7 -1.4 7.7 13.3 8.2 12.3 13.9 0.2 5.5 -3.1 0.7 1.6 -1.3 1.8 7.8 1.2 5.0 5.3 0.9 11.0 6.1 19.5 -3.1 11.0 -0.7 17.0 1.9 9.8 10.7 6.0 2.2 6.4 10.0 -9.2 11.8 0.0 3.5 -3.1

Nondurable goods

y-o-y change (%)

102.3 101.2 107.2 96.4 103.4 91.5 117.7 94.7 101.0 90.8 118.4 99.1 106.8 98.2 124.6 97.3 89.3 102.6 104.9 110.5 94.8 94.1 85.1 95.4 118.2 119.9 115.0 96.3 88.4 99.3 105.5 104.9 92.7 91.6 83.4 97.5 113.7 124.6 117.0 94.3 91.6 111.3 107.7 111.9 100.9 98.6 88.8 107.1 123.6 126.4 123.8 100.3

2.3 -1.1 5.9 2.0 4.2 3.3 0.1 -1.8 -2.3 -0.8 0.6 4.6 5.7 8.1 5.2 3.2 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.7 12.2 7.5 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -3.2 0.6 -5.1 -2.2 -2.7 -2.0 2.2 -3.8 3.9 1.7 -2.1 3.6 12.1 2.1 6.7 8.8 7.6 6.5 9.8 8.7 1.4 5.8 6.4

y-o-y change (%)

104.2 106.1 109.2 101.7 102.5 107.4 105.3 103.6 103.6 108.9 108.2 107.5 107.7 112.1 109.4 103.7 99.7 101.6 100.3 105.4 101.9 105.0 107.7 109.4 104.6 103.7 107.5 110.4 96.1 104.2 101.1 105.8 103.9 106.1 106.5 114.0 107.3 107.2 110.2 107.7 106.0 108.7 106.1 109.5 107.6 110.9 110.0 115.4 107.8 108.6 111.9 114.7

4.2 1.8 2.9 5.0 3.3 4.2 4.4 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.8 3.8 4.0 2.9 1.1 10.2 1.7 3.1 2.2 2.9 5.1 5.0 7.1 0.7 3.5 4.5 5.0 6.5 -3.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 2.0 1.0 -1.1 4.2 2.6 3.4 2.5 -2.4 10.3 4.3 4.9 3.5 3.6 4.5 3.3 1.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 6.5

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

March 2019

57

Statistical Appendices

5 Machinery orders received and facility investment index

Period

Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y (2010=100) change (%)

2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p

26,643 31,897 32,470 6,398 6,942 5,765 7,538 7,812 8,590 7,613 7,882 8,407 8,672 7,538 7,854 1,662 2,282 2,454 2,006 2,210 2,727 2,030 1,672 2,063 1,825 2,339 3,374 2,149 2,462 3,202 2,777 2,585 3,228 2,820 2,353 2,440 2,352 2,930 2,600 2,748 2,337 3,322 3,006 2,787 2,879 2,662 2,470 2,406 2,545 2,365 2,944 2,493

4.7 19.7 1.8 -0.9 -1.3 4.8 16.7 22.1 23.7 32.0 4.6 7.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -28.8 22.9 8.2 -27.6 5.2 26.3 1.0 2.5 11.0 -8.7 18.8 35.4 29.3 7.9 30.5 38.5 17.0 18.4 38.9 40.7 18.2 28.9 25.2 -22.9 27.9 -5.1 3.7 8.2 7.8 -10.8 -5.6 5.0 -1.4 8.2 -19.3 13.3 -9.3

change (%)

2,862 2,266 2,465 637 575 465 1,184 691 543 462 570 603 645 495 721 71 255 312 188 175 213 47 84 334 63 154 967 122 227 342 241 117 184 296 82 84 187 139 244 270 141 193 302 121 222 113 274 108 232 64 426 104

49.0 -20.8 8.8 57.4 16.8 16.6 89.9 8.5 -5.7 -0.8 -51.8 -12.7 18.8 7.3 26.5 -39.0 80.7 110.8 48.7 -11.3 25.6 -64.6 -47.3 214.8 -35.2 -32.6 224.7 72.7 -11.0 9.9 28.2 -32.8 -13.4 526.5 -3.1 -74.8 193.9 -9.2 -74.7 120.8 -38.0 -43.7 25.2 3.1 20.6 -61.9 236.3 28.3 24.3 -54.2 74.3 -61.6

change (%)

23,781 29,631 30,005 5,761 6,367 5,300 6,353 7,121 8,048 7,151 7,311 7,803 8,027 7,042 7,133 1,591 2,027 2,142 1,817 2,035 2,514 1,983 1,588 1,729 1,761 2,186 2,406 2,026 2,235 2,860 2,536 2,468 3,044 2,524 2,271 2,356 2,166 2,790 2,355 2,478 2,197 3,129 2,704 2,666 2,657 2,549 2,196 2,297 2,313 2,301 2,519 2,390

1.1 24.6 1.3 -4.8 -2.6 3.9 8.8 23.6 26.4 34.9 15.1 9.6 -0.3 -1.5 -2.4 -28.3 18.1 1.0 -31.3 6.9 26.3 5.7 7.9 -1.4 -7.4 25.5 9.6 27.4 10.2 33.5 39.5 21.3 21.1 27.3 43.0 36.2 22.9 27.7 -2.1 22.3 -1.7 9.4 6.6 8.0 -12.7 1.0 -3.3 -2.5 6.8 -17.5 6.9 -3.6

change (%)

110.7 126.3 121.6 100.1 114.2 106.3 122.0 118.3 134.5 128.2 124.4 130.4 128.0 110.9 117.0 97.0 90.7 112.7 111.0 110.6 121.1 105.0 109.8 104.0 109.3 118.8 138.0 107.0 108.5 139.3 127.0 132.8 143.7 131.1 123.5 130.0 105.0 126.8 141.4 130.8 120.0 140.3 130.9 129.0 124.0 118.2 109.7 104.9 115.7 114.9 120.3 109.1

-1.3 14.1 -3.7 -7.6 0.6 -4.7 5.9 18.2 17.8 20.6 2.0 10.2 -4.8 -13.5 -5.9 -6.6 -8.4 -7.7 -2.5 2.5 2.1 -12.6 3.3 -4.0 -3.3 10.2 10.5 10.3 19.6 23.6 14.4 20.1 18.7 24.9 12.5 25.0 -3.9 6.7 2.5 22.2 10.6 0.7 3.1 -2.9 -13.7 -9.8 -11.2 -19.3 10.2 -9.4 -14.9 -16.6

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

58

Economic Bulletin

6 Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received

Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p

Total

Value of construction Public

y-o-y change (%)

119,971 139,039 136,998 24,533 29,977 29,573 35,889 30,697 35,692 34,902 37,748 32,158 35,882 32,902 36,056 7,509 7,424 9,600 9,027 9,347 11,603 9,545 9,832 10,195 10,473 11,458 13,959 8,996 9,602 12,099 11,222 11,341 13,128 11,215 11,114 12,574 10,900 12,153 14,696 10,669 9,718 11,771 11,569 11,453 12,860 11,025 10,958 10,918 10,995 11,286 13,775 9,682

16.9 15.9 -1.5 11.9 16.5 16.3 21.5 25.1 19.1 18.0 5.2 4.8 0.5 -5.7 -4.5 6.4 8.1 20.0 14.0 16.9 18.1 17.8 21.0 10.9 20.2 28.9 17.0 19.8 29.4 26.0 24.3 21.3 13.1 17.5 13.0 23.3 4.1 6.1 5.3 18.6 1.2 -2.7 3.1 1.0 -2.0 -1.7 -1.4 -13.2 0.9 -7.1 -6.3 -9.3

Private

y-o-y change (%)

30,916 30,314 28,363 6,710 8,099 7,061 9,046 6,931 8,167 6,862 8,354 6,492 7,629 6,356 7,885 2,045 1,976 2,689 2,317 2,326 3,456 2,256 2,344 2,460 2,347 2,779 3,920 1,971 2,130 2,831 2,295 2,510 3,362 2,225 2,070 2,568 2,172 2,460 3,722 1,930 1,906 2,656 2,258 2,346 3,026 2,137 1,954 2,265 2,046 2,238 3,601 1,712

-0.4 -1.9 -6.4 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 2.6 3.3 0.8 -2.8 -7.7 -6.3 -6.6 -7.4 -5.6 -1.1 -6.8 7.8 -7.1 -1.4 0.6 -2.4 5.4 -9.2 2.4 12.7 -3.5 -3.6 7.8 5.3 -0.9 7.9 -2.7 -1.4 -11.7 4.4 -7.5 -11.5 -5.0 -2.1 -10.5 -6.2 -1.6 -6.5 -10.0 -4.0 -5.6 -11.8 -5.8 -9.0 -3.2 -11.3

(current value, billion)

Total

y-o-y change (%)

83,680 105,033 105,252 16,512 20,494 21,226 25,448 22,722 26,606 27,173 28,532 24,845 27,487 25,647 27,273 5,144 5,086 6,282 6,299 6,611 7,585 6,914 7,109 7,203 7,692 8,224 9,532 6,691 7,195 8,836 8,640 8,550 9,417 8,718 8,796 9,659 8,483 9,405 10,643 8,493 7,611 8,741 9,075 8,867 9,545 8,531 8,706 8,410 8,644 8,779 9,850 7,719

24.2 25.5 0.2 14.0 24.6 23.7 32.2 37.6 29.8 28.0 12.1 9.3 3.3 -5.6 -4.4 7.9 12.3 21.1 23.2 24.3 26.0 25.2 27.0 19.2 27.3 36.5 32.7 30.1 41.5 40.7 37.2 29.3 24.2 26.1 23.7 34.1 10.3 14.4 11.7 26.9 5.8 -1.1 5.0 3.7 1.4 -2.1 -1.0 -12.9 1.9 -6.7 -7.5 -9.1

Domestic construction orders Public Private

y-o-y change (%)

145,386 142,966 138,720 28,922 32,790 36,709 46,966 28,605 38,778 33,685 41,898 32,721 33,951 30,330 41,718 7,335 9,994 11,593 10,848 9,658 12,284 12,006 13,329 11,374 14,793 12,624 19,548 8,189 12,329 8,087 14,685 11,462 12,631 8,616 12,857 12,213 9,748 11,511 20,638 12,154 9,122 11,444 9,144 13,701 11,107 10,573 9,208 10,549 10,039 11,443 20,236 7,140

8.1 -1.7 -3.0 13.6 -7.3 0.6 26.4 -1.1 18.3 -8.2 -10.8 14.4 -12.4 -10.0 -0.4 -2.5 84.0 -7.4 19.2 -23.6 -9.9 38.3 52.0 -40.3 42.4 -4.7 44.6 11.7 23.4 -30.2 35.4 18.7 2.8 -28.2 -3.5 7.4 -34.1 -8.8 5.6 48.4 -26.0 41.5 -37.7 19.5 -12.1 22.7 -28.4 -13.6 3.0 -0.6 -2.0 -41.3

y-o-y change (%)

33,832 33,446 29,507 7,753 5,565 7,914 12,600 7,269 7,516 6,954 11,708 4,656 6,241 6,174 12,436 2,687 2,354 2,712 1,185 2,127 2,254 2,626 3,362 1,925 3,209 2,792 6,600 2,250 3,084 1,934 2,119 1,469 3,927 1,794 3,007 2,153 897 2,301 8,510 1,329 2,106 1,222 1,444 2,782 2,015 1,620 2,182 2,372 2,138 2,839 7,458 1,829

18.5 -1.1 -11.8 68.6 -37.9 61.5 24.9 -6.2 35.0 -12.1 -7.1 -35.9 -17.0 -11.2 6.2 102.9 106.4 27.1 -53.9 -10.2 -44.0 46.6 75.1 62.2 78.0 -14.5 31.5 -16.3 31.0 -28.7 78.9 -30.9 74.3 -31.7 -10.6 11.8 -72.1 -17.6 28.9 -40.9 -31.7 -36.8 -31.9 89.3 -48.7 -9.7 -27.4 10.2 138.5 23.4 -12.4 37.6

y-o-y change (%)

107,748 104,431 102,103 20,458 26,702 26,985 33,603 17,267 30,481 26,586 30,097 23,548 26,930 22,802 28,823 4,371 7,559 8,528 9,295 7,412 9,995 8,513 9,464 9,008 11,509 9,729 12,365 5,935 5,899 5,433 11,956 9,934 8,590 6,797 9,837 9,951 8,828 9,192 12,078 6,484 6,941 10,123 7,428 10,760 8,742 8,885 5,864 8,052 7,825 8,479 12,519 4,760

4.4 -3.1 -2.2 -0.6 3.1 -12.6 30.1 -15.6 14.2 -1.5 -10.4 36.4 -11.7 -14.2 -4.2 -28.1 79.5 -17.2 43.6 -27.1 8.0 25.0 44.7 -48.6 34.1 3.3 58.0 35.8 -22.0 -36.3 28.6 34.0 -14.1 -20.2 3.9 10.5 -23.3 -5.5 -2.3 9.3 17.7 86.3 -37.9 8.3 1.8 30.7 -40.4 -19.1 -11.4 -7.8 3.7 -26.6

p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea

March 2019

59

Statistical Appendices

7 Composite indexes of business cycle indicators, CSI and BSI Period 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 p 12p 2019 1p 2 3

Leading index (2015=100)

Cyclical indicator of leading index (2015=100)

Coincident index (2015=100)

Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2015=100)

CSI1

97.8 98.2 98.6 99.0 99.6 99.9 100.1 100.5 101.1 101.5 101.9 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.2 102.6 103.0 103.3 103.8 104.3 104.9 105.4 105.8 106.4 106.8 107.3 107.6 108.1 108.7 109.4 109.9 110.3 110.5 110.8 111.1 111.4 111.9 112.1 112.4 112.4 112.8 113.0 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.2 113.3 113.4 113.4 -

100.2 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.4 100.5 100.6 100.6 100.4 100.0 99.7 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.4 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.8 101.1 101.2 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.0 100.9 101.0 100.9 100.8 100.5 100.5 100.4 100.3 99.9 99.6 99.3 99.1 98.9 98.5 -

98.4 98.9 99.1 99.4 99.1 99.3 99.5 100.2 101.0 101.6 101.7 101.9 101.8 101.9 102.0 102.2 102.7 103.2 103.7 104.0 104.2 104.2 104.6 105.1 105.7 105.9 106.4 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.3 107.6 108.0 108.1 108.3 108.1 108.3 108.7 109.1 109.2 109.4 109.5 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.8 110.0 -

99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 99.7 99.5 99.5 99.9 100.4 100.8 100.6 100.5 100.2 100.0 99.9 99.8 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.3 100.5 100.8 100.8 101.0 101.0 101.0 100.9 100.9 100.9 101.0 100.8 100.8 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.1 99.9 99.7 99.6 99.3 99.2 99.1 -

101.9 102.6 100.8 103.5 104.8 97.7 99.7 101.0 102.2 104.6 105.3 102.0 99.4 97.2 99.4 101.0 98.6 98.1 100.4 101.3 101.2 101.5 95.0 93.2 92.4 93.6 96.0 100.6 107.6 110.8 110.9 109.6 107.3 108.8 112.0 110.6 109.9 108.1 108.0 107 107.9 105.4 100.8 98.9 100.0 99.2 95.7 96.9 97.5 99.5 -

BOK BSI2 Results

Prospects

75 75 75 76 69 66 71 71 69 72 69 68 66 64 66 66 69 71 72 73 71 72 71 73 77 78 78 80 80 78 79 80 82 82 82 81 78 78 73 75 75 79 75 74 73 72 72 73 68 71 -

78 76 78 77 77 73 68 73 72 70 72 71 70 69 64 68 69 71 72 74 75 75 74 73 74 77 79 80 81 81 81 81 81 82 86 84 83 81 79 75 78 77 81 76 76 78 74 73 72 67 74

1. Consumer sentiment index 2. Business survey index (manufacturing, seasonally adjusted) p: Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea

60

Economic Bulletin

8 Prices Period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2

Consumer prices(2015=100) Commodity Services

All Items y-o-y change (%)

100.0 101.0 102.9 104.5 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.1 100.1 99.9 100.2 100.4 100.8 100.6 100.8 100.8 100.8 100.6 100.9 101.5 101.6 101.5 101.6 102.6 102.9 102.9 102.7 102.8 102.6 102.8 103.4 103.5 103.4 102.6 103.0 103.4 104.2 104.1 104.3 104.3 104.1 103.9 104.9 105.7 105.5 104.7 104.4 104.2 104.7

0.7 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5

y-o-y change (%)

100.0 99.4 101.3 102.7 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.8 100.3 100.4 100.0 100.1 99.8 99.6 99.3 99.7 99.2 99.9 99.1 99.3 99.1 99.1 98.2 98.5 100.0 100.3 100.1 100.1 101.4 101.8 101.6 100.9 101.1 100.9 100.6 101.7 102.2 101.7 100.6 101.1 101.5 102.7 102.3 102.4 102.5 102.3 102.4 103.4 105.1 104.6 103.2 102.2 101.6 101.9

-0.7 -0.6 1.9 1.3 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -1.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.8 -1.6 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 2.2 2.0 2.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.1 0.1 -0.7

y-o-y change (%)

100.0 102.3 104.3 105.9 99.1 99.2 99.4 99.7 99.8 99.8 100.4 100.6 100.4 100.6 100.5 100.7 101.3 101.6 101.8 101.9 102.2 102.2 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 102.6 102.8 103.6 103.8 103.9 104.2 104.2 104.0 104.6 104.7 104.5 104.7 104.3 104.6 105.0 105.5 105.6 105.8 106.0 105.8 106.0 106.2 106.0 106.1 106.0 106.1 106.4 107.0

1.8 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4

Producer prices(2010=100) All Items Commodity

Core y-o-y change (%)

100.0 101.6 103.1 104.3 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.6 99.9 99.9 100.2 100.3 100.2 100.4 100.4 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.7 101.8 101.5 101.6 101.7 102.1 102.0 101.9 102.6 102.8 102.8 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.4 103.4 103.3 103.5 103.1 103.3 103.5 103.9 104.1 104.4 104.5 104.4 104.2 104.3 104.7 104.7 104.6 104.6 104.8 105.2

2.2 1.6 1.5 1.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3

y-o-y change (%)

101.0 99.1 102.5 99.0 101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.7 99.3 99.0 98.5 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.8 99.0 98.9 99.0 99.2 99.5 100.0 100.9 102.3 102.7 102.7 102.4 102.2 101.8 101.9 102.3 103.0 103.1 103.0 103.1 103.6 104.0 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.9 105.5 105.8 105.4 104.6 104.0 103.7 103.8

-4.0 -1.8 3.5 2.0 -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0 -3.3 -3.4 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -2.7 -2.5 -1.8 -1.1 -0.1 0.7 1.8 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.1 -0.2

y-o-y change (%)

98.0 94.6 99.0 101.1 99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.0 95.3 95.0 94.0 93.9 93.8 94.1 94.3 94.6 94.4 94.4 94.7 95.0 95.7 97.0 99.0 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.5 97.8 97.9 98.5 99.5 99.6 99.4 99.5 99.9 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.9 101.0 101.6 102.3 102.8 102.2 101.1 100.1 99.5 99.5

-6.4 -3.4 4.6 2.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.4 -7.6 -6.6 -5.7 -5.9 -5.7 -5.2 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3 -3.4 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 2.2 5.3 6.0 5.9 5.1 4.4 3.4 3.7 4.4 5.1 4.8 3.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.3 2.6 1.6 0.8 -0.5 -1.0

Source: Bank of Korea

March 2019

61

Statistical Appendices

9 Employment (I) Period 2016 2017 2018 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2

Economically Economically active persons inactive persons y-o-y change (thousands) y-o-y change (thousands) 27,418 27,748 27,895 26,896 27,578 27,702 27,497 27,262 27,993 27,961 27,775 27,464 28,125 28,080 27,912 26,631 26,925 27,133 27,398 27,617 27,720 27,737 27,690 27,679 27,666 27,613 27,211 26,886 27,321 27,579 27,911 27,987 28,081 28,037 27,903 27,943 27,920 27,889 27,516 27,232 27,348 27,811 28,029 28,184 28,161 28,123 28,039 28,079 28,063 28,092 27,582 27,455 27,649

265 329 148 266 197 308 289 366 414 259 278 202 132 120 137 251 254 293 195 164 233 202 396 325 307 315 246 255 396 446 513 370 360 299 214 263 254 276 305 346 27 232 117 198 80 86 136 137 143 203 66 223 300

16,187 16,183 16,287 16,576 15,991 15,950 16,233 16,556 15,906 16,006 16,263 16,624 16,017 16,131 16,375 16,808 16,546 16,373 16,138 15,955 15,880 15,889 15,962 15,998 16,038 16,117 16,544 16,904 16,497 16,267 15,960 15,916 15,844 15,909 16,064 16,044 16,095 16,151 16,543 16,840 16,744 16,289 16,093 15,956 16,000 16,064 16,172 16,158 16,199 16,192 16,733 16,864 16,734

102 -5 104 127 178 48 53 -20 -85 56 30 68 110 126 112 148 136 96 186 213 136 159 -40 25 40 29 91 96 -49 -107 -179 -39 -36 20 102 45 57 34 -1 -64 247 22 134 41 156 155 108 114 105 41 190 23 -11

Labor force partication rate (%) 62.9 63.2 63.1 61.9 63.3 63.5 62.9 62.2 63.8 63.6 63.1 62.3 63.7 63.5 63.0 61.3 61.9 62.4 62.9 63.4 63.6 63.6 63.4 63.4 63.3 63.1 62.2 61.4 62.4 62.9 63.6 63.7 63.9 63.8 63.5 63.5 63.4 63.3 62.5 61.8 62.0 63.1 63.5 63.9 63.8 63.6 63.4 63.5 63.4 63.4 62.2 61.9 62.3

Employment Unemployment rate (%) rate (%) 60.6 60.8 60.7 59.2 60.9 61.2 60.9 59.6 61.3 61.4 61.0 59.6 61.2 61.1 60.9 59.0 58.9 59.7 60.5 61.1 61.3 61.3 61.2 61.1 61.2 61.2 60.2 59.1 59.3 60.3 61.0 61.5 61.5 61.6 61.2 61.4 61.4 61.4 60.4 59.5 59.2 60.2 60.9 61.3 61.4 61.3 60.9 61.2 61.2 61.4 60.1 59.2 59.4

3.7 3.7 3.8 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.2 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.7 4.9 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.9 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.4 4.5 4.7

Source: Statistics Korea

62

Economic Bulletin

10 Employment (II) Period

Employed persons (thousands) Manufacturing

All industry y-o-y change

2016 2017 2018 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2

26,409 26,725 26,822 25,747 26,552 26,719 26,618 26,100 26,919 26,998 26,883 26,283 27,019 27,015 26,971 25,646 25,615 25,980 26,325 26,613 26,718 26,765 26,696 26,697 26,746 26,762 26,347 25,878 25,979 26,443 26,744 26,992 27,020 27,078 26,904 27,011 27,026 27,019 26,604 26,213 26,083 26,555 26,868 27,064 27,126 27,083 26,907 27,055 27,090 27,184 26,638 26,232 26,346

231 316 97 204 211 255 256 353 367 279 265 183 101 17 88 254 145 214 172 182 278 227 327 209 227 293 249 232 364 463 420 379 302 314 208 314 281 257 257 334 104 112 123 72 106 5 3 45 64 165 34 19 263

SOC & services

y-o-y change

4,584 4,566 4,510 4,650 4,599 4,540 4,545 4,530 4,579 4,570 4,586 4,575 4,487 4,479 4,499 4,673 4,648 4,630 4,601 4,608 4,588 4,564 4,519 4,538 4,547 4,549 4,541 4,503 4,549 4,539 4,542 4,586 4,608 4,611 4,544 4,555 4,560 4,581 4,618 4,609 4,562 4,554 4,473 4,507 4,482 4,484 4,439 4,513 4,515 4,490 4,491 4,439 4,411

-21 -18 -56 113 15 -92 -119 -120 -21 30 41 45 -91 -91 -88 127 99 111 23 28 -6 -85 -97 -94 -125 -112 -120 -170 -99 -91 -60 -22 20 47 25 17 14 32 77 106 14 15 -68 -79 -126 -127 -105 -42 -45 -91 -127 -170 -151

y-o-y change

20,534 20,857 20,953 20,051 20,530 20,763 20,792 20,546 20,913 20,986 20,986 20,630 21,053 21,039 21,090 20,056 19,984 20,113 20,350 20,566 20,674 20,797 20,759 20,733 20,759 20,841 20,775 20,462 20,453 20,721 20,842 20,963 20,933 21,037 20,922 20,999 21,008 21,061 20,888 20,596 20,503 20,792 20,979 21,054 21,127 21,114 20,967 21,036 21,068 21,241 20,962 20,683 20,806

312 323 96 144 283 429 390 494 383 223 194 85 141 53 104 199 104 129 210 255 385 425 493 370 399 377 393 406 469 608 492 396 260 240 162 266 249 220 113 134 49 71 137 92 194 77 45 37 60 179 74 87 304

Source: Statistics Korea

March 2019

63

Statistical Appendices

11 Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)

Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019p 1

Current account

Goods

97,923.7 75,230.9 76,408.5 26,367.7 27,085.0 21,759.4 22,711.6 15,980.6 14,455.0 25,944.5 18,850.8 11,653.2 17,248.1 28,115.5 19,391.7 7,317.4 7,927.5 11,122.8 4,184.3 10,491.0 12,409.7 8,831.8 5,410.1 7,517.5 7,476.8 7,873.3 7,361.5 3,401.7 7,438.6 5,140.3 3,184.0 4,262.1 7,008.9 7,467.4 6,139.4 12,337.7 6,890.0 7,474.3 4,486.5 2,644.6 3,904.7 5,103.9 1,355.7 8,434.5 7,457.9 8,552.3 8,550.2 11,013.0 9,348.8 5,223.6 4,819.3 2,772.3

116,461.7 113,592.9 111,866.6 29,714.6 32,544.1 27,172.4 27,030.6 24,699.4 27,303.8 33,090.7 28,499.0 22,531.9 29,946.9 34,718.1 24,669.7 8,255.0 8,143.3 13,316.3 9,893.3 10,237.7 12,413.1 10,486.8 6,791.0 9,894.6 8,874.9 9,453.1 8,702.6 6,687.5 9,432.3 8,579.6 10,925.8 7,675.6 8,702.4 9,920.7 8,647.3 14,522.7 9,417.9 11,165.6 7,915.5 7,549.7 5,571.0 9,411.2 9,620.4 10,785.4 9,541.1 10,788.5 10,922.3 13,007.3 10,654.5 7,485.8 6,529.4 5,609.5

Services Exports

Imports

511,926.1 580,310.2 625,437.4 119,093.5 127,675.2 128,305.0 136,852.4 139,598.3 142,985.7 149,655.5 148,070.7 150,104.6 157,666.0 158,973.9 158,692.9 37,326.8 36,545.0 45,221.7 40,501.1 42,155.7 45,018.4 42,616.0 41,847.1 43,841.9 43,111.2 46,297.1 47,444.1 44,498.9 44,777.1 50,322.3 48,155.0 46,728.9 48,101.8 47,108.0 47,834.3 54,713.2 46,115.1 51,690.0 50,265.6 52,224.4 44,990.5 52,889.7 51,506.8 53,846.7 52,312.5 54,184.3 53,472.4 51,317.2 57,403.2 51,716.0 49,573.7 49,384.1

395,464.4 466,717.3 513,570.8 89,378.9 95,131.1 101,132.6 109,821.8 114,898.9 115,681.9 116,564.8 119,571.7 127,572.7 127,719.1 124,255.8 134,023.2 29,071.8 28,401.7 31,661.4 30,607.8 31,918.0 32,605.3 32,129.2 35,056.1 33,947.3 34,236.3 36,844.0 38,741.5 37,811.4 35,344.8 41,742.7 37,229.2 39,053.3 39,399.4 37,187.3 39,187.0 40,190.5 36,697.2 40,524.4 42,350.1 44,674.7 39,419.5 43,478.5 41,886.4 43,061.3 42,771.4 43,395.8 42,550.1 38,309.9 46,748.7 44,230.2 43,044.3 43,774.6

-17,338.4 -36,734.1 -29,737.1 -3,711.0 -4,080.2 -5,417.2 -4,130.0 -9,393.4 -8,111.1 -8,616.1 -10,613.5 -9,313.8 -6,485.9 -7,610.5 -6,326.9 -1,808.4 -1,053.1 -874.1 -1,670.3 -1,129.8 -1,280.1 -1,418.0 -1,453.4 -2,545.8 -1,771.7 -1,703.2 -655.1 -4,174.6 -2,198.4 -3,020.4 -2,494.3 -2,807.2 -2,809.6 -3,304.6 -2,309.0 -3,002.5 -3,602.5 -3,303.6 -3,707.4 -4,441.5 -2,612.6 -2,259.7 -1,977.6 -2,085.1 -2,423.2 -3,092.5 -2,043.8 -2,474.2 -2,180.2 -2,198.0 -1,948.7 -3,608.4

Primary income 4,567.1 5,336.9 2,777.7 1,335.3 -166.3 2,399.6 998.5 1,559.5 -3,106.4 3,940.3 2,943.5 1,312.2 -4,221.2 2,825.3 2,861.4 1,328.6 816.7 -810.0 -3,515.9 1,530.0 1,819.6 388.6 1,023.3 987.7 764.8 338.0 -104.3 1,206.7 755.2 -402.4 -4,669.9 36.4 1,527.1 1,534.5 592.1 1,813.7 1,547.2 272.6 1,123.7 1,157.9 1,444.5 -1,290.2 -5,622.8 478.7 922.9 1,535.4 318.5 971.4 1,327.6 490.7 1,043.1 1,402.1

Secondary income -5,766.7 -6,964.8 -8,498.7 -971.2 -1,212.6 -2,395.4 -1,187.5 -884.9 -1,631.3 -2,470.4 -1,978.2 -2,877.1 -1,991.7 -1,817.4 -1,812.5 -457.8 20.6 -534.0 -522.8 -146.9 -542.9 -625.6 -950.8 -819.0 -391.2 -214.6 -581.7 -317.9 -550.5 -16.5 -577.6 -642.7 -411.0 -683.2 -791.0 -996.2 -472.6 -660.3 -845.3 -1,621.5 -498.2 -757.4 -664.3 -744.5 -582.9 -679.1 -646.8 -491.5 -453.1 -554.9 -804.5 -630.9

p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

64

Economic Bulletin

12 Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)

Period

Financial account*

2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019p 1

99,811.3 84,425.3 70,489.3 28,236.5 22,642.8 24,612.6 24,319.4 19,114.9 12,386.9 29,836.8 23,086.7 12,384.7 11,706.6 26,806.9 19,591.1 6,747.0 9,439.7 12,049.8 1,596.3 10,132.2 10,914.3 9,202.8 6,855.4 8,554.4 8,419.5 8,505.1 7,394.8 4,325.0 9,012.8 5,777.1 1,863.3 2,118.2 8,405.4 8,911.6 9,399.0 11,526.2 7,192.7 9,369.1 6,524.9 3,560.9 4,418.6 4,405.2 5.7 6,905.9 4,795.0 9,998.2 7,030.0 9,778.7 10,280.7 3,871.3 5,439.1 3,003.2

Direct investment

Portfolio investment

17,785.2 16,156.5 24,437.9 5,691.9 4,489.3 1,828.4 5,775.6 7,140.3 4,050.0 4,851.8 114.4 2,244.4 8,283.1 8,890.6 5,019.8 206.1 2,181.3 3,304.5 808.9 1,442.8 2,237.6 710.9 -295.5 1,413.0 1,141.2 56.4 4,578.0 3,301.6 4,333.5 -494.8 1,773.0 872.7 1,404.3 637.2 1,953.7 2,260.9 198.6 -1.4 -82.8 240.3 419.8 1,584.3 1,951.5 6,079.9 251.7 2,268.1 4,372.2 2,250.3 3,414.6 200.9 1,404.3 1,669.9

66,970.2 57,853.0 43,884.0 16,794.1 13,981.8 15,865.5 20,328.8 8,131.0 11,965.1 23,755.5 14,001.4 12,833.6 4,505.1 7,784.3 18,761.0 5,412.9 5,749.6 5,631.6 3,277.6 4,546.1 6,158.1 145.0 7,111.8 8,608.7 9,921.6 7,011.4 3,395.8 4,794.5 1,003.6 2,332.9 3,460.2 5,511.1 2,993.8 2,727.2 11,338.8 9,689.5 313.3 1,616.1 12,072.0 3,337.9 9,391.1 104.6 4,061.5 533.0 -89.4 -3,427.9 1,692.4 9,519.8 6,626.2 5,023.5 7,111.3 4,816.1

Financial derivatives

Other investment

Reserve assets

10,880.8 14,312.0 -14,013.4 4,360.2 4,437.6 3,759.0 -1,676.0 6,061.1 -1,775.6 1,731.7 8,294.8 -1,776.7 -9,837.0 5,765.6 -8,165.3 -460.0 2,343.2 2,477.0 -2,763.3 4,205.3 2,995.6 6,852.0 -1,757.5 -1,335.5 -2,124.1 1,871.4 -1,423.3 -3,879.7 5,420.5 4,520.3 -2,286.6 -3,930.8 4,441.8 5,497.6 -4,079.2 313.3 5,809.4 7,262.0 -4,776.6 -145.9 -4,656.2 3,025.4 -8,375.7 -3,034.6 1,573.3 8,581.5 1,439.1 -4,255.0 -2,684.9 -1,619.6 -3,860.8 -3,487.8

7,615.2 4,357.1 17,491.9 -1,333.7 919.4 6,959.2 1,070.3 733.5 214.2 -151.3 3,560.7 2,787.8 9,802.5 2,146.3 2,755.3 360.2 -1,591.0 -102.9 1,316.6 401.7 -798.9 1,966.8 3,089.0 1,903.4 220.3 -517.1 1,367.1 255.5 -151.6 629.6 -170.9 78.5 306.6 128.8 347.0 -627.1 1,427.0 1,369.5 764.2 1,440.3 159.7 1,187.8 3,119.0 3,707.9 2,975.6 1,485.1 -1,235.6 1,896.8 2,157.6 -42.0 639.7 164.7

-3,440.1 -8,253.3 -1,311.1 2,724.0 -1,185.3 -3,799.5 -1,179.3 -2,951.0 -2,066.8 -350.9 -2,884.6 -3,704.4 -1,047.1 2,220.1 1,220.3 1,227.8 756.6 739.6 -1,043.5 -463.7 321.9 -471.9 -1,292.4 -2,035.2 -739.5 83.0 -522.8 -146.9 -1,593.2 -1,210.9 -912.4 -413.3 -741.1 -79.2 -161.3 -110.4 -555.6 -877.1 -1,451.9 -1,311.7 -895.8 -1,496.9 -750.6 -380.3 83.8 1,091.4 761.9 366.8 767.2 308.5 144.6 -159.7

Capital account -46.2 -26.8 188.9 -8.1 -7.0 13.9 -45.0 39.2 -60.4 -5.9 0.3 -21.3 -70.7 61.5 219.4 -2.6 -2.3 -3.2 -5.0 1.0 -3.0 5.8 17.2 -9.1 -6.3 -35.0 -3.7 42.9 -2.0 -1.7 -26.4 -1.9 -32.1 17.1 -21.8 -1.2 -7.4 38.8 -31.1 -6.5 -13.4 -1.4 -64.9 2.6 -8.4 -6.7 -5.1 73.3 82.8 -9.5 146.1 -29.4

* Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea

March 2019

65

Statistical Appendices

13 Financial indicators (period average)

Stock

Yields (%) Period Call rate (1 day)

CD (91 days)

Treasury bonds (3 years)

Treasury bonds (5 years)

Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)

1.99 1.99 1.82 1.73 1.74 1.57 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.26 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.50 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.77 1.75 1.76

2.26 2.24 2.00 1.88 1.87 1.73 1.70 1.70 1.69 1.70 1.74 1.90 1.83 1.76 1.71 1.70 1.68 1.56 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.53 1.65 1.67 1.64 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.60 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.70 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.81 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.81 1.81 1.82 1.85 1.91 1.87 1.87

2.04 2.02 1.87 1.74 1.88 1.77 1.78 1.74 1.65 1.63 1.75 1.72 1.63 1.47 1.50 1.47 1.46 1.33 1.22 1.24 1.31 1.36 1.61 1.69 1.64 1.67 1.71 1.68 1.69 1.67 1.74 1.78 1.79 2.03 2.15 2.10 2.19 2.28 2.27 2.19 2.25 2.18 2.10 2.02 1.95 2.01 1.94 1.83 1.81 1.80

2.16 2.12 1.97 1.86 2.11 2.04 2.05 1.95 1.85 1.78 1.95 1.90 1.77 1.59 1.61 1.57 1.55 1.41 1.25 1.26 1.35 1.41 1.74 1.87 1.82 1.86 1.91 1.86 1.91 1.86 1.94 1.99 1.99 2.25 2.36 2.30 2.44 2.54 2.50 2.44 2.53 2.44 2.34 2.24 2.13 2.16 2.05 1.89 1.88 1.87

2.36 2.30 2.13 1.99 2.12 2.01 2.00 1.98 1.95 1.96 2.12 2.14 2.09 1.95 1.98 1.94 1.91 1.79 1.65 1.65 1.70 1.78 2.02 2.16 2.10 2.13 2.21 2.20 2.22 2.21 2.28 2.32 2.33 2.57 2.71 2.65 2.72 2.82 2.83 2.79 2.86 2.81 2.75 2.66 2.40 2.45 2.40 2.30 2.26 2.25

2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2

KOSPI (end-period)

1,949 1,986 2,041 2,127 2,115 2,074 2,030 1,941 1,963 2,029 1,992 1,961 1,912 1,917 1,996 1,994 1,983 1,970 2,016 2,035 2,044 2,008 1,983 2,026 2,068 2,092 2,160 2,205 2,347 2,392 2,403 2,363 2,394 2,523 2,476 2,467 2,566 2,427 2,446 2,515 2,423 2,326 2,295 2,323 2,343 2,030 2,097 2,041 2,205 2,195

Source: Bank of Korea

66

Economic Bulletin

14 Monetary indicators (period average, billion won)

Reserves Period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1p

M1

y-o-y change (%)

120,691.4 137,441.5 151,858.1 164,963.2 113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4 126,572.2 125,616.2 126,767.1 128,117.5 131,279.3 134,913.0 132,957.9 135,038.9 135,971.3 135,758.4 135,906.7 139,073.9 142,079.6 141,103.5 141,757.2 143,458.7 147,380.8 150,092.9 145,049.0 149,630.1 149,446.2 150,519.7 149,955.1 152,170.5 154,578.6 159,248.2 155,623.3 158,603.1 157,220.1 163,852.7 160,760.7 161,527.1 160,475.5 164,397.3 163,223.4 165,629.2 170,529.6 170,478.9 168,326.2 173,137.8 170,871.6

16.8 13.9 10.5 8.6 15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2 20.1 17.3 18.8 16.3 15.9 15.8 14.6 17.3 15.5 14.4 11.4 14.1 12.3 12.3 11.8 12.0 12.3 11.3 9.1 10.8 9.9 10.9 10.3 9.4 8.8 12.9 9.8 10.6 6.7 9.2 10.8 8.0 7.4 9.2 8.8 8.8 10.3 7.1 8.2 9.2 8.7

M2

y-o-y change (%)

636,639.0 734,411.8 802,016.5 841,014.4 579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9 665,691.1 669,737.7 677,629.2 690,772.4 699,767.3 708,014.0 713,861.2 720,818.5 722,544.4 730,637.8 735,172.2 738,120.9 751,408.5 753,367.3 762,639.7 776,589.6 780,995.5 776,362.5 789,187.8 791,859.3 791,074.8 798,890.2 804,853.4 805,103.3 810,905.0 826,892.1 817,624.5 830,003.7 830,732.8 839,555.2 840,991.0 841,002.2 839,880.5 846,240.2 843,752.8 837,607.5 845,523.7 840,678.4 840,084.9 846,123.7 847,765.3

18.6 15.4 9.2 4.9 12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 20.6 19.6 20.7 19.4 18.8 18.0 16.2 15.9 13.8 13.0 12.9 12.5 12.5 12.4 11.6 9.7 10.6 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.1 7.9 9.8 7.2 6.9 6.3 8.1 6.6 6.2 6.2 5.9 4.8 4.0 4.3 1.7 2.7 1.9 2.1

Lf

y-o-y change (%)

2,182,911.9 2,342,621.3 2,471,225.6 2,626,902.0 2,092,223.5 2,109,892.3 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,179,561.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3 2,230,000.7 2,232,432.0 2,242,848.2 2,246,070.1 2,261,356.4 2,285,313.5 2,294,544.7 2,299,081.3 2,312,801.2 2,334,256.2 2,352,245.1 2,377,323.1 2,383,040.5 2,391,059.2 2,406,393.5 2,414,040.9 2,417,635.8 2,420,285.6 2,436,994.7 2,450,220.9 2,454,386.7 2,470,861.1 2,472,110.4 2,485,629.9 2,492,388.4 2,504,594.2 2,521,786.3 2,527,641.3 2,551,196.0 2,570,764.6 2,578,361.8 2,590,840.7 2,600,274.3 2,622,268.3 2,637,421.8 2,651,503.4 2,652,829.5 2,674,506.5 2,692,974.8 2,699,882.3 2,716,740.2

8.6 7.3 5.5 6.3 8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5 8.1 8.3 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 6.9 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.1 5.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.5 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5

y-o-y change (%)

2,986,699.4 3,229,857.2 3,445,685.0 3,686,392.2 2,857,610.1 2,876,467.8 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,316.5 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1 3,049,823.2 3,059,051.9 3,076,029.2 3,086,887.8 3,110,535.8 3,133,492.2 3,158,687.8 3,170,277.9 3,189,899.3 3,223,154.5 3,242,338.3 3,270,365.6 3,288,026.0 3,305,950.4 3,328,489.7 3,337,069.4 3,359,110.8 3,365,200.1 3,387,986.2 3,404,957.2 3,416,320.2 3,440,571.4 3,454,563.6 3,472,041.5 3,483,119.8 3,501,084.6 3,521,139.1 3,541,553.2 3,573,130.0 3,596,261.3 3,616,028.6 3,629,830.4 3,643,255.3 3,671,956.8 3,698,202.0 3,718,480.4 3,734,526.2 3,759,646.9 3,786,039.7 3,809,349.2 3,838,653.0

9.7 8.1 6.7 7.0 8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.9 7.6 8.0 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.4

Source: Bank of Korea

March 2019

67

Statistical Appendices

15 Exchange rates (end-period)

US $/\ Period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2

Won

1,172.0 1,208.5 1,071.4 1,181.1 1,190.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0 1,208.4 1,235.4 1,153.5 1,143.9 1,190.6 1,164.7 1,125.7 1,118.5 1,096.3 1,145.2 1,168.5 1,208.5 1,157.8 1,132.1 1,116.1 1,130.1 1,123.9 1,139.6 1,119.1 1,122.8 1,146.7 1,125.0 1,082.4 1,071.4 1,071.5 1,071.0 1,066.5 1,076.2 1,081.3 1,121.7 1,116.7 1,108.8 1,112.7 1,140.6 1,121.8 1,118.1 1,170.2 1,117.8

Euro/\

100/\ y-o-y change (%)

6.6 3.1 -11.3 4.4 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6 10.8 12.4 4.4 7.1 7.5 3.6 -3.5 -4.9 -8.2 0.3 1.6 3.1 -4.2 -8.4 -3.2 -1.2 -5.6 -2.2 -0.6 0.4 4.6 -1.8 -7.4 -11.3 -7.5 -5.4 -4.4 -4.8 -3.8 -1.6 -0.2 -1.2 -3.0 1.4 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.4

Won

972.0 1,036.8 949.1 1013.2 921.4 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 994.1 936.7 972.0 1,017.1 1,083.8 1,026.0 1,058.2 1,072.8 1,132.2 1,073.7 1,086.3 1,083.7 1,094.4 1,038.8 1,036.8 1,017.9 1,004.0 998.5 1,016.0 1,014.3 1,017.6 1,012.3 1,017.4 1,020.4 994.2 966.5 949.1 985.0 997.3 1,001.5 985.9 994.0 1,014.8 1,006.0 998.7 981.2 1,008.9 989.0 1,013.2 1,024.8 1,007.6

y-o-y change (%)

5.6 6.7 -8.5 6.8 -11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6 10.4 17.9 11.5 17.9 19.9 23.4 14.3 12.0 8.7 15.9 10.9 6.7 0.1 -7.5 -2.7 -4.0 -5.4 -10.1 -5.7 -6.3 -5.8 -9.2 -7.0 -8.5 -3.2 -0.7 0.3 -3.0 -2.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.8 -3.8 1.5 2.3 6.8 4.0 1.0

Won

1,280.5 1,267.6 1,279.3 1,279.2 1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5 1,322.2 1,348.3 1,307.4 1,298.4 1,326.8 1,295.5 1,246.7 1,246.9 1,230.3 1,257.1 1,244.3 1,267.6 1,239.5 1,198.6 1,192.6 1,228.1 1,255.6 1,304.0 1,315.7 1,335.6 1,350.9 1,310.1 1,282.7 1,279.3 1,329.1 1,310.4 1,312.0 1,304.5 1,261.3 1,297.0 1,307.4 1,293.2 1,294.6 1,294.0 1,277.7 1,279.2 1,283.1 1,271.5

y-o-y change (%)

-4.2 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2 7.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.2 2.8 -2.3 -5.3 -8.5 0.2 2.1 -1.0 -6.3 -11.1 -8.8 -5.4 -5.4 0.7 5.5 7.1 9.8 4.2 3.1 0.9 7.2 9.3 10.0 6.2 0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -3.2 -4.2 -1.2 -0.4 0.0 -3.5 -3.0

Source: Bank of Korea

68

Economic Bulletin

Useful websites

Ministry of Economy and Finance http://english.moef.go.kr Korea Development Institute http://www.kdi.re.kr/kdi_eng Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/eng

Republic of Korea

Economic Bulletin March 2019

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