OCAD University MDes Strategic Foresight and Innovation Foresight Studio. Winter 2014 Stuart Candy, Greg VanAlstyne
owledge
raw materials manufacturing offerings Scanning, Scenarios and Foresight Strategy for Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soaps
reputation
impact
profit support causes
engagement Ksenia Benifand, Krittika Sharma, William Schindhelm Georg, Rodolfo Taboada Palomar
“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.� Charles F. Kettering
Introduction The purpose of this project is to explore strategic options for our ambassador Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soap Company considering futures scenarios. The scenarios examined the futures of brand and consumer interaction in 2035 to guide conscious consumer brands, such as Dr. Bronner’s, and change makers in a time of changing expectations and shifting values in North America. For this project, we used different foresight methodologies that included, environmental scanning, new technology research, medium to long-term scenario planning, and strategy development metrics to develop creative insights and implications for action.
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Overview
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Framing
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Scanning, trends and drivers -Legal hemp in America -Network media detox -Virtual becomes real -Don’t worry, we know you -MySelf TM -Frankenfood -Pack-appeal -The other billions -Surveillance meets resources -Be your own e-preneur -Dear retailer: leave us alone -Makers: the sustainable lifestyle -The age of desire -Doomsday prepper -The omnipresent retailer -Democratisation of manufacturing
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Scenarios Two by two matrix Return to innocence Economic Prosperity and spiritual values Everybody hurts Economic Collapse and spiritual values Riders on the storm Economic Collapse and material values Material world Economic Prosperity and material values
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Strategy
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Time Machine
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Thanks and Acknowledgements
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Appendix
The long list The short list Windtunnel Signposts Recommendations
Traveling to 2035 The letter Images of time machine
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Overview Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soap, the ambassador for this project, is an American organic soap and organic products company. It is one of the top selling brands of natural soap in the US and Canada, also sold internationally in Europe and Asia. Dr. Bronner’s is a family business in its 3rd generation and is 66 years old, but the family has been making soap for at least 5 generations; around 150 years. It is known as “the fighting soap company” for its outspoken stance on numerous causes, and for its commitment to fair labor practices, transparency, and organic integrity. Dr. Bronner’s shares the majority of its profits (more than 70%) with its employees, communities and supported causes. Their causes today include organic integrity in personal care, promotion of authentic Fair Trade, re-commercialization of industrial hemp in the U.S., labeling genetically engineered foods (those containing GMOs) and animal rights and protection. Although this project focuses on the development of strategic recommendations for Dr. Bronner’s, some aspects of the suggested approach can also be used to serve as a guide for conscious consumer brands and change makers.
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Dr. Bronner’s official
vision
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Dr. Bronner’s is a family business committed to honouring the vision of our founder, Dr. E. H. Bronner, by making socially and environmentally responsible products of the highest quality, and by dedicating our profits to helping make a better world.
Vision: “All-One!” 1. “We are all brothers and sisters, and we should take care of each other and Spaceship Earth!” 2. “Constructive Capitalism is where you share the profits with the workers and the Earth from which you made it!”
The following five “Pillars of comprise the foundation of how operates in order to carry out philosophy within their sphere
Commitment” Dr. Bronner’s their business of influence.
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Q u a l i t y F a m i l y Responsibility Advocacy Philanthropy Produce
the M
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highest quality p r o g r e s s i v e and sustainable for causes we fits to support products in an b u s i n e s s supply chain.
ethical
and p r a c t i c e s .
believe in.
all kinds of great things.
environmentally
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Framing Prior to starting the development of the foresight activities, our team, together with our brand ambassador Rafi Loiderman, framed the project, identifying not only the domain we wanted to work on, as well as the timeframe, intended audience and the overall motivation behind those choices. Thus, the purpose of this project was to explore the futures of brand and consumer interaction in 2035 to guide conscious consumer brands, such as Dr. Bronner’s, and change makers in a time of changing expectations and shifting values in North America. It is important to note that the framing for this project was chosen not only to allow us to achieve the desired learning objectives of the course, but also to deliver an interesting and provocative scenario set for Dr. Bronner’s.
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Scanning, trends & drivers Working individually, within the coordinating context of our team, we started the foresight process by doing a comprehensive environment scanning, uncovering about 80 signals of emerging issues that could potentially shape the future of brands and consumer interactions in the next 20 years. After carefully analyzing and clustering our signals, we deepened our research, creating a set of 16 detailed and contextualized trends relevant to the selected domain, expected to come into focus by 2035. It is important to note that the scoping for this project was influenced by trends that may impact Dr. Bronner’s platform, such as consumer behaviours, values and needs; products and services manufacturing, distribution and delivery; social media trends; and activism.
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Drivers The team then identified the relevant drivers that were acting on a systemic level, allowing for the 16 identified trends to take shape. Generally, we identified the 10 major drivers listed below, with varying uncertainty and impact in the futures of brand and consumer interactions.
Impact
Uncertainty
Lower uncertainty Population growth Urbanization Big data Land degradation Moderate uncertainty Time poverty Government influence Brand competition Income inequality Higher uncertainty Dominant societal values Economic outlook
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Scenarios Our selected approach to creating our scenarios for the selected domain was the scenario matrix, a process that uses two of the critical uncertainties as the main parameters of the scenarios. It is developed by defining the two critical uncertainties as a continuum with two opposing, but plausible extremes that, juxtaposed, offer the most insightul and intriguing set of four scenarios for the future. It is important to note here that the development o the scenario matrix is more of a creative process rather than a science and the final combination of critical uncertainties is often decided through intuition, negotiation and testing. The critical uncertainties used to guide the scenarios development were the state of the economy (prosperity vs. collapse), and cultural values of consumers (materialist vs. spiritual). The outlines for the scenarios are given in the sequence. Starting from the four scenarios defined by the combination of our two critical uncertainties, we then created narratives that described each of the four contexts, complemented by underlying causes, as well as intended and unintended consequences that eventually made those futures possible.
Economic prosperity
Material values
Spiritual values
Economic collapse
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Return to innocence North America is the leading example of spiritual awakening. While the general tone of the world 20 years ago was about a demise of life on Earth, the persistence to make a better environment has invited the age of human consciousness (1). By going back to the root of religions, myths and ancestral knowledge along with alternative sciences like yoga and meditation, has led to positive changes within the society. As a result, people are highly intelligent and empathetic towards each other. The new concept of prosperity concentrates on the quality of life rather than monetary richness of the early 21st century. As society has come together based on a collective and shared value, the dependency on technology has significantly reduced. The age of human denial of maximizing growth has moved the society towards sharing the Earth carefully and living within the means of the planet rather than promoting insatiable consumption. The capitalistic economic model never recovered from the 2008 recession. It deteriorated into a severe spiral of financial tensions. Consumption was peaking and falling, causing wider gaps in social inequality and civil violence. The rampant exploitation of the Earth’s resources continued to be monopolized by governments and a few powerful companies. Near outbreaks of war and unfortunate series of natural disasters left societies vulnerable. Movements like Occupy grew global and encouraged people to question their purpose. All forms of media and the internet were used to quicken the pace of this emerging cultural narrative. Conscious brands that had always been respectful about the Earth’s finite resources become role models of hope. This led to a shift in economic thinking. The end goal was to achieve true contentment and it slowly became certain that this is how humanity ought to 32
exist. People began questioning how much consumerism was a part of their daily lives. This ensured that brands aligned to the customer’s values and the greater good of the ecosystem. Brands have a reputation index in the stock market and it evaluates their level of involvement towards environment, waste management, eco- friendly and ethically sourced etc. Transparency is a strong consumer demand and loyalty is heavily determined by this metric. While technology has progressed considerably, it is primary there to serve the needs of the society, environmental growth and preservation. Data is collected differently- it is mindful of consumers wanting their time away from technology. Due to the shift in mindset, society is closer. With more face-to-face interactions, data cannot track many aspects of human behavior. Brands have representatives that personally connect with customers. Building a relationship is key. Clean tech is a billion dollar industry. Many companies have invested in it ensuring that they give back to communities and consumers. The energy prices remain low, as the awareness towards conscious consumption exists. Brands are purpose driven and human reasoning ensures that brands are conscious about their production cycles, how much they produce, whether they are harmful to the environment etc. Recycling, wind tech and waste management are the new sexy. Due to the thoughtfulness of society, preservation and conservation of natural resources have led to abundance. Nature is ample in cityscapes. Acknowledging the fragility of limited resources, societies believe in their own well-being and that of generations to come. Water harvesting, solar energy, wind energy and clean packaging are mandatory for every city (2). Plastic is banned and no longer exists. This has pushed brands to think
about their own packaging. Many companies are creating services, products and research units geared towards healthier living with regards to energy, education and healthcare. This can be beneficial to the brands because it allows their reputation index to rise and they can collect tax rebates from the Government based on that. On the other hand, if brands exceed their target carbon footprint, then they are subject to heavy government taxes. In severe cases, their reputation index is taken off the stock market putting them at high risk of losing their customers. With economic abundance and a conscious society, the Government is less corrupt although there are nonviolent protests from time to time. Often, the Government tries to glorify the past but it is clear that the only way to reach gain votes is to align themselves to the spiritual awakening. Every Government census includes a measure of happiness. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is used to determine if people are reaching their peak potential and levels of actualization. The GDP includes measuring GNH (Gross National Happiness) (4) by the level of consumption, health and stress, crime rates and balance between personal and work life. Brands serve the consumer using the GDP and GNH. The idea is to develop alongside nature. Companies invest in long-term goals versus just the short-term financial goals. The former consumerist model reached its limits because it was systematically looking at the short-term which prevented foreseeing the long- term. Bigger brands have a Chief Happiness Officer whose team collates consumer data and informs their brand strategists how to fulfill the spiritual values of their customers. Through this fundamental change, the atmosphere in most companies is balanced with work and personal time.
The ecocentric approach has also allowed niche brands to flourish. Concepts like barter and time banking systems are the ‘new-old’ and have become legitimate options of payment. Farmers markets and maker spaces are popular recreational spaces and are the highlights of city events. The bigger brands often sponsor them to collect reputation points. Economist E. F. Schumacher (5) had strongly spoken about the difference between man dominating and conquering nature versus man being in harmony with nature. While the former was a very temporary win for humanity, the latter helped awaken a consciousness that allowed the self to be responsible beyond themselves. The new economic outlook is that maximization and growth isn’t everything. This is the definition of a ‘good life’ that emerged out of the immense disruption and sacrifice. The age of cultural and spiritual health and new investment strategies and sustainability of natural capital have been implemented to take care of the exhausted Earth. The aesthetic is to manage abundance with true and shared contentment. References:
(1) Sousa, A. (2002, July 5). Mind and Consciousness as per J. Krishnamurti.National Center for Biotechnology Information. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih. gov/pmc/articles/P (2) Technological Innovations for Smart Cities of the Future. (n.d.). MyE / Management y Estrategia, pensando el Futuro. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://magementyestrategia. blogspot.ca/ (3) Kelly, A. (2012, December 2). Gross national happiness in Bhutan: the big idea from a tiny state that could change the world. The Observer. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/ dec/01/bhutan-wealth-happiness-counts (4) Schumacher, E. F. (1973). Small is beautiful; economics as if people mattered. New York: Harper & Row.
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Everybody Hurts Collapse in North America is a certainty. There have been many signs and people trying to prevent it, with the situation being so complex, it wasn’t hard to imagine a major failure in the system. Now it is here and society is struggling to cope with it. The rising spiritual values embraced by the society were just not enough to prevent the system from collapsing. The socially responsible corporations and conscious consumption movements driven by NGO’s and concerned citizens were not enough to stop the over consumption of resources that lead to loss of biodiversity, catastrophic impacts of climate disasters, and the rising of human viruses causing epidemics all around the world. USA’s power has drastically waned. While it still has significant military power, it is suffering economic and social instability. The government is struggling to properly address resources scarcity issues and maintain civil instability. Due to the citizens’ desire for new and resilient communities, several new economic and societal models are emerging. States and citizens are free to practice new ways for contributing to the country other than paying taxes, since many no longer have the money. They are working together to develop new economic models some of which, resemble the 20th century socialism, or the totalitarianism from ancient civilizations, or dictatorships from spiritual leaders. All of them are trying to survive and find solutions to deal with the economic collapse and resources scarcity that affects most of the population. Some examples of how communities are building back their well-being and developing resilience include newly formed farming communities, where habitants own their land and rely on community controlled land trust (1), many abandoned buildings are now big greenhouses or owned by a closed communities with their 34
own rules. Some of the population is choosing to live a simple life, staying with friends and family during cold nights, and in public parks and on the streets during the summer. (2). Bartering is another common practice and several successful Swap-Cities have created healthy communities. Citizens are sharing their skills, their homes and their resources. Brands have an opportunity to facilitate swap meets by providing gathering locations, A few of the communities started with a very high spiritual mission but they soon began to use their energy on deciding which companies to boycott instead of thinking how to improve the quality of products and services and life for their communities (3). “Robin Hoods” and spiritual oriented gangs like this are common. They have spiritual values, but they disobey system structures. Many fundamentalist religious or societal movements are misunderstanding spiritual values. They react violently against different ideas because they see others as a potential threat for their own survival. Wars in the name of God are declared in many regions and by many communities. Buying the wrong brand can be very offensive for anyone and have fatal consequences, so people are careful with the products and movements they support in stores and within the online digital world. Communities and citizens have won the battle against privacy issues and big data mining by a few main powerful brands and governments, but citizens are now worried because they are depending on community leaders’ decisions. Weapons and barricades are still there and private security are everywhere, conflict is still happening in many regions of the world, but there is a generalized desire for peace. Many leaders (coming from different backgrounds: company directors, religious or government leaders)
blame materialistic values as one of the main causes for the collapse, and this has helped to set a higher degree of consciousness about the environment, humanity and social values at large. It is not just about the rising of old and new religions, but a change in the way we see ourselves as part of the planet and the need to create a new role for economic and political systems to have a positive impact. Humans do not see themselves as being at the center anymore. They consider ourselves as part of the planet with an important role for building sustainability. They have failed, but have one more chance and hope for being one with Mother Earth, Gaia, Pachamama, or whatever they might call the concept of being All One with the Earth. Because of the system collapse, there are a lot of spaces for innovation. New companies with human and environmentally centric vision are emerging. Food and vegetables, words that now are almost synonyms due to scarcity of meat, are in most cases locally produced and they are considered organic, although most of seeds have some GMO contamination. Premium organic brands products are offered by brands or community brands for richer people who also have a sense of responsibility when choosing products they consume. The biggest brands have strong spiritual leaders that influence people’s behavior. Some of these leaders turned from being corporate CEO’s or founders to become conscious leaders. They are also sponsoring new communities with huge amounts of money (4 & 5) based on different variations of capitalism. They are playing an intermediary role between people and major forces like government and brands. Brands create movements, create culture, and sometimes provide education of their consumers and
employees in order to gain confidence again from people. In conclusion, people know that values has to change and that humanity have to become one with the earth, but contradiction, disagreements, misunderstandings and desire for power and greed seemed to repeat even in spiritual based communities. The future is uncertain but this may be the last opportunity to survive and succeed on this planet. References:
(1) Wanderer’s End Prepper Community. (n.d.). FIC. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.ic.org/directory/wanderers-end-prepper-community/ (2) Sakaguchi, K. (n.d.). zero yen house.zero yen house. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.polarinertia.com/nov06/zero01. (3) Mackey, J., & Sisodia, R. (2013). Conscious capitalism: liberating the heroic spirit of business. Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business Review Press. (4) Ave Maria Florida. (n.d.). Ave Maria Florida. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www. avemariablvd.com (5) Ave Maria, Florida. (2014, September 3). Wikipedia. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ave_Maria,_Florida
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Riders on the storm For a long period, clear signals of a storm were consistently denied and overlooked with skepticism. That set the stage for a deep economic and environmental crisis to settle in. In this context, society is now split into a hopeless mass, trapped in the evidently outdated attitudes of the powerful, strongly influential and skeptical few, who consistently deny the fundamental failure of the system and insist that the old growth model is the only alternative out of the abyss. As short-termist, business-as-usual forces strongly persist, the world appears to be unable to respond to the recession. After several failed attempts to fuel growth, most OECD nations – especially the United States – are struggling to reemerge. In this ruthless race for growth, corporations focus all their efforts in cutting costs. For both, the major North American society and global corporations, the new norm is clear and solid: the cheaper, the better. In this world, possession comes first, while humans are secondary, seen as a means of achieving material success. Reputation is a direct function of a person’s belongings and access to resources. And while the crisis deepened, government policies became worryingly oriented towards consumption, what is considered to be the fail-proof recipe for rapid growth... and the depressed consumer mass credulously supports this, trusting it could help them bring back their happiness. The government’s initiative to create consumer sector champions led to a massive wave of partnerships and mergers in the industry and for most giant consumer product corporations such as PepsiCoke, Target-Mart and PG&U, access to cheap natural and human resources is the top priority. This concentrated consumers’ lives in the hands of a few big corporations, which benefit from unprecedented economies of scale and make life for 36
small, independent brands and businesses virtually impossible. In fact, it is now the government who decides what we should and shouldn’t consume according to the impacts on government’s budget and especially suspicious political interests. Yet, instead of banning certain products – a strategy that certainly would undermine the efforts to fuel consumption – the government now forbids certain companies to advertise, only allowing them to sell their products in plain packaging, with the product name in a generic typeface. Backed up by all sorts of incentives, consumer product brands and financial institutions – the main supply-side elements in the consumption arena – are more powerful and integrated than ever, aimed at pushing products to consumers as much as they can, as well as providing the major population with all the necessary financial means to do so. In this move, corporate and government investments quickly shifted away from expensive and long-term opportunities to support the short term manufacturing and selling of cheap and “good-enough” products to serve the society. In the pursuit for cheap energy to fuel the American economy, the new republican president Michael Kinlaw reversed Obama’s decision and signed the controversial Keystone pipeline deal, locking the American energy matrix into oil and shale gas. However this decision didn’t come without costs and the population is paying the price of cheap resource development by suffering from severe environmental and social impacts. A series of technical problems and leakages with the Keystone pipeline led to the unrestrained contamination of the Ogallala Aquifer [1], one of the largest reserves of freshwater in the world, making the already stressed water body officially inadequate for human use and discontinuing the
provision of water for millions of people and billions of dollars in agricultural production potential. Moreover, the high costs of fracking were not enough to cover all the environmental impacts due to the exploration of shale gas, leading many American companies close to bankruptcy. Most of these companies have now been taken over by Chinese oil corporations such as PetroChina and Sinopec, adding an extra dose of sourness to the already acid relationship between North American countries and China. Additionally, negative environmental impacts in agricultural production are now steadily driving organic food prices up, laying down the fundamental elements of a prot-divide: while a new food underclass is forced to survive on a carbohydrate- and fat-heavy diet, those with money pay for the proteins. The developing world, meanwhile, is working to bridge the food gap by massively embracing the benefits of biotechnology, which the higher classes in the developed world have the luxury to reject. Natural, organic ingredients have become luxury products in the dinner table. As pressures on the environment increase, the easing of environmental and supply chain related certifications opened alarming precedents for corporate transparency to rapidly be replaced by “obscurency” – the intentional hiding of an organization’s environmental performance data – leading to social uprisings in certain cities across the country. Nonetheless, since the approval of the Consumer Protection Act, a shady bill that would supposedly protect consumers from customer invasion and advertising abuse, the government has dramatically expanded its authority to track citizens’ data and predictively interfere to avoid any sort of virtual and real public manifestations of dissa-
tisfaction. This has been enabled by the fast advance of neuroscience and nanotechnology, which combined allowed for the creation of ultra invasive data collection technology, that are also being used to consistently nudge consumers with aggressive personalized marketing. This led to the appearance of several clandestine communities such as “the awakened”, that are exploring – sometimes successfully – alternative ways to communicate and live their hyperconnected lives without going through mainstream channels, a trend that is likely to grow. References:
[1] Ogallala Aquifer. (n.d.). In Wikipedia. Retrieved March 09, 2014, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer
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Material World Twenty years ago, at a time when global governments had failed miserably to reach a binding agreement on climate change policies and were too corrupt to meaningfully address falling standards of living, corporations took a leadership role by turning to technology to help solve some of the world’s most pressing issues. Driven by their desire for persistent economic growth and to capitalize on consumption needs of the booming world population about to reach ten billion people strong, corporations formed alliances to address energy, water and waste issues, and increased the standard of living for billions of people and communities. A major shift happened in 2020, when Bill Gates’ company TerraPower perfected the Gen 4 nuclear power reactor. First reactor was deployed in China and proved to the world both the safety and the immense power of this technology. Fueled by global nuclear waste, today these reactors are a cheap supply of energy (1). The transition to nuclear power away from fossil fuels has helped to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, allowed companies to build energy intensive vertical farms needed so desperately to feed global population, and gave way for the development of large desalination plants for accessing clean drinking water. This cheap, clean and abundant energy also allowed corporations to continue economic growth. With abundant clean energy, clean drinking water, food security, and climate change no longer a pressing issue; consumers regained trust in corporations and as the standards of living rose once again, demand for a luxury lifestyle prevailed. A new era of Desire Optimization began. Corporations turned to big data mining, social monitoring, and behavioural analytics to design new consumer lifestyles catering to every whim and deepest desires on demand, delivering great 38
performance beyond expectations, becoming trusted “friends” and life guides. In today’s world, brands transformed into Lovemarks. (2) By reaching consumers’ minds and hearts, connecting with their deepest desires, brands create intimate, emotional connections that consumers just can’t live without. Lovemarks became relationships between brand and consumer, not just mere transactions. Consumers embrace them passionately. For example, “Sara’s Forever Living” kitchen became a lovemark and an absolute necessity for many families. Along with various appliances and a 3D food printer, the kitchen comes with “Sara” an Artificially Intelligent Avatar who has become every family’s best friend and a trusted part of the household. Every morning, Sara performs detailed analysis using sleeping pattern monitoring, nutrient and stress level scan to develop a health profile for each member of the household. This information helps her devise a uniquely catered menu and snack options for the day. Sara also sends messages throughout the day to remind each person to drink enough water, take their pills, and specific tips to avoid sugar cravings. “Sara’s Forever Living” kitchen is powered by IBM’s Healthy Living data management, GE’s Ecomagination appliances, and Amazon Food Inc distribution. To develop menus for each family, in addition to detailed personal analysis, Sara uses health data from the family medical doctor, personal health goals, and a weekly meal budget. Amazon Food Inc. is a food distribution service that tracks and provides data on produce availability, which Sara accesses as she devises and recommends meal plans. Once the order is placed, Amazon Food delivers raw ingredients, mostly in flavoured nutrient packs, which can then be inserted into the GE’s Ecomagination 3D food printer to
create a meal. This resource allocation system allows Amazon food to manage their inventory better, offer more seasonal produce, control how much they need to stock, and helps to eliminate waste. Consumer trust in corporations and the acceptance of technology as essential factor for increasing standards of living, created a new field of marketing called Predictive Analytics allowing corporations to monitor and predict individual behavior. Brands are also using facial expression recognition to track emotion and cater their advertising to match specific states of emotion (3). For instance, if consumer is feeling sad, “Sara” offers comfort food – i.e. ice cream or hot chocolate, but also ensuring that the comfort food fits into the individuals’ diet plan. This allowed experiential design firms to work with manufacturing, packaging and distribution companies to develop life optimization experiences and create lovemarks. With abundant energy and big data powering every whimsical need and want, 3D printers printing products on demand; creativity, out of this world fashion, art, and design dominates and ONE-OF-A-KIND is KING. In a world approaching 10 billion people, differentiation and customization are a must. Lovemarks create highly personalized experiences to find a lasting place in consumers’ hearts. Traditional big box retail stores with stocked merchandise have mainly disappeared. Virtual stores take up very little space and are set up to be centers of deep personal experiences and immersions. RFID chips on every wearable device track every consumer move, every search, every conversation, and every transaction. Corporations use this information to develop a detailed profile of each consumer not only for today, but projected aspects of consumers in the future with ever-increasing precision.
In the Era of Desire Optimization, consumers demand that their uniqueness is showcased and celebrated. People’s desire to be famous has created the “life as entertainment” movement. People live for the show, becoming their own personal movie through everything they connect with. Pervasive technology connects consumers in virtual worlds in ever more intimate ways, narrowing the distance between viewers and celebrities. An unexpected rise in consumers seeking depression treatments in hundreds of millions is causing some medical doctors to closer examine Predictive Analytics and the relationship people have with their lovemarks. Depressed patients complain that they are “loosing themselves” and are never sure of anything when it comes to daily and long-term decision making, including whether or not to love someone until they seek advice from their lovemarks. Legal institutions are also becoming concerned that more and more people are blaming their avatars for committing crimes. In a recent trial, a citizen from Toronto successfully sued and won a battle against her lovemark for what she claims as manipulating her to marry someone and raising a family without her fully informed and conscious consent. References: (1) Wald, M. (2013, September 24). Atomic
Goal: 800 Years of Power From Waste. The New York Times. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/25/business/energy-environment/atomic- goal-800years-of-power-from-waste.html?_r=1& (2) The Lovemarks Heart Beat: March 2014. (n.d.). Lovemarks: the future beyond brands. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www. lovemarks.com/ (3) The 7 Most Powerful Women to Watch in 2014. (n.d.). Entrepreneur. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.entrepreneur.com/ article/230351-2
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Signposts Signposts for Return to Innocence Scenario (News Headlines) 2015: Counter cultural movements like the sharing economy and DIYs become more visible 2018: Progress is measured through philanthropreneurship 2020: Bread becomes $ 40? Mass outrage breaks 2022: Occupy is shaping culture. Sustainable brands are mainstream 2025: The green party wins majority votes. The real sense of democracy is here 2028: Companies and governments measure Gross National Happiness 2030: Companies promise long- term commitments towards the environment Signposts for Everybody Hurts Scenario (News Headlines) 2020: Environmental problems persist. Leads to scarcity of food & resources and violent outcomes 2025: Communities are formed looking for healthier lifestyles and new economic models that adhere to sharing and exchange economy 2028: Prepper communities divide over new economic model. Conflict ensues 2030: Fully integrated swap cities emerge Signposts for Riders of the Storm Scenario (News Headlines) 2015: Paris climate negotiations fail again in the face of continuing economic downturn 2016: Republican Jeb Bush wins presidential elections 2021: How the loosening of environmental requirements means for American corporations 2026: Midwest’s cereal crops severely impacted by soil contaminations 2029: America turns to consumption as a final attempt to fuel growth 2032: Why cheap is good enough...and good is cheap enough Signposts for Material World Scenario (News Headlines) 2018: Wearable biometric technology led is officially available in mass markets Target, Walmart and Best Buy. 2020: Bill Gates’s company TerraPower perfects the Gen 4 nuclear power reactor, which creates GHG free, abundant, and cheap energy. 2020: Telepathic technologies tested across consumer markets within San Francisco and NYC communities. 2021: Corporations agree to work together to take a leadership role by turning to technology to help solve some of the world’s most pressing issues. 2025: Using the new energy source, companies develop solutions for vertical farming and water desalination. 2028: Consumer trust in corporations is high and big data is used for increasing standards of living, and for creating virtual brand experiences. 2030: Lovemarks are replacing retail stores.
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Time machine The purpose for building a future scenario experience -Our time machine project- was to cause a provocative and impactful reaction to our ambassador, Dr. Bronner’s, by suggesting a challenging, extreme and unexpected future. By doing this, we want to createnew strategic conversations in the present, considering multiple possible futures.
The scenario we chose for the Time Machine project is “Everybody Hurts”, which illustrates economic collapse and spiritual values. We have chosen to depict this scenario as during our call with our ambassador from Dr. Bronner’s, Rafi Loiederman, we learned that this is one of the most challenging scenarios for Dr. Bronner’s to operate in, as currently they are a luxury brand, and, at the same time, they have a true commitment on making a better world through their work and messages. Our goal in this case was to show to Dr. Bronner’s how brands could interact in a scenario that faces economic collapse. We chose the spiritual scenario, as our goal was to show that even in the midst of economic collapse, communities that possess spiritual values will still go on, and function successfully. Furthermore, there is a role for brands to play in order to foster and cater to the values of the people. Traveling to 2035 We created the interior of a house in 2035. When visitors enter to the room, they were able feel and explore through different objects and experiences, how a family from that future could be living and interacting with a specific scenario. As in an archeological research, different objects and spaces were clues that helped the observer to imagine different stories happening there. What happened with politics, technology, food, environment, social and cultural values and customs are suggested in our time machine. Our story begins with a letter at the entrance of the room left by our main character, Mandela, that provides context and framing to our visitors. We used quotes throughout the time machine from great spiritual teachers and authors including: Rumi, Ghandi, Eckhart Tolle, Viktor E. Frankl, Buddha, Ray Bradbury, and many others to set the mood of the time machine as visitors and viewers entered the room. 60
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Top left: Ksenia introducing our audience to our time machine at OCAD University Bottom left: Overview of the time machine room Right page: 1)Signals on the street on the way to the time machine suggesting health issues, the existence of a community and a different government department. 2)hiper local and organic products 3)DIY receit 4)chips in boots (just a clue from a future world 5)Books with suggesting titles: The collaboration economy,ecology intellligence 6)Branded mask: “Don’t do it” 7)New product from Dr. Bronner’s: Magic Seeds 8)Prepper kit from Shanti Community 9)GMO detector 10)Collapsed view from the window 11)Quotes spreaded through the time machine. “Beware of Robin Hoods” warning 12)Homemade green Energy generator
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13) Whole foods market Bank, farm, shop and health card. 14) Budah poster (illustration made by Mariana Zúùiga www. marianazunigatorres. com) 15) Some more suggesting books from the future 16) Mapa-mundi suggesting some climate change consequences and some geo-political differences. 17)Flyers from the community (Dr. Bronner images were used as a way of branding the flyers that belongs to certain community)
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Thanks & Acknowledgements Our team would like to express our special appreciation and thanks to our advisors, Professors Greg van Alstyne and Stuart Candy for being tremendous instructors, coaches and mentors for us, encouraging our work and for allowing us to grow as young foresighters. Your very constructive feedback on have been really helpful during the development of our work. We would also like to thank our ambassador, Rafi Loiderman for serving as our single-person committee member during our work. Your support in helping understand the complexities and subtleties in Dr. Bronner’s, as well as your interesting comments and suggestions, were invaluable. Last but not least, we would also like to thank the OCAD University security team, Campus Operations Clerk Barry Ellis and Graduate Program Assistant Julian Higuerey Nuñez for providing us the support and resources necessary for bringing our time machine to life at the 100 McCaul campus. Without your support, we wouldn’t have been able to engage our audience in our envisioned experience.
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Appendix Additional Resources for the Scenarios Aurigi, A., & Graham, S. (n.d.). Virtual Cities, Social Polarisation and the Crisis in Urban Public Space.Centre for Urban Technology Department of Town and Country Planning. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/ cyberspace/graham_jut.pdf Can Gadgets Really Tell The Future? | Co.Design | business + design. (n.d.). Co.Design. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.fastcodesign. com/3026853/can-gadgets-really-tell-the-future?utm_source=facebook Christensen, C. M. (n.d.). July 2010.Harvard Business Review. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://hbr.org/2010/07/how-will-you-measure-your-life Consumer Trends and the Future of Marketing. (2013, January 2). YouTube. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from https://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=Z45GGExa6nw Ecofootnotes. (n.d.). Ecofootnotes. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http:// williamrees.org/ Edgar S. Cahn | Time Banking: A currency based on community. (n.d.).The MOON magazine. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://moonmagazine.org/ edgar-s-cahn-time-banking-a-currency-based-on-community-2013-04-03/ El Universal: Noticias de M茅xico y el Mundo.. (n.d.). El Universal, el peri贸dico http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/espectaculos/2014/calle-13-expropiaciontierras- indigenas-993504.html Future customer trends, consumers, marketing, products and services for Siemens - by Futurist Dr Pat. (2011, November 17). YouTube. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQP76BD9Qfk Insights & Publications. (n.d.). 3-D printing takes shape. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/manufacturing/3-d_printing_ takes_shape Lasn, K. (2012). Meme wars: the creative destruction of neoclassical economics. New York, NY: Seven Stories Press. Mexican vigilantes drive out religious drug cartel from gang-held city. (2014, February 9). The Guardian. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www. theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/09/mexican-vigilantes-drug-cartel- gangcity McCrummen, S. (2012, April 30). In Mexico, self-defense groups battle a cartel. Washington Post. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.washingtonpost. com/world/the_americas/in-the-hills-of-michoacan- self-defense-groupsbattle-a-mexican-drug-cartel/2013/09/09/6947e47a-119f- 11e3-a2b35e107edf9897_story.html
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Reich, D. (2014, February 11). How Retail Is Evolving In An On-Demand Economy. Forbes. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/ danreich/2014/02/11/how-retail-is-evolving-in-an-on-demand-economy/ Saraswati, S. S. (1996). Asana pranayama mudra bandha (Paperback, 3rd rev. ed.). Bihar: Yoga Publications Trust. The Brands Of The Future Will Help You Consume Less | Co.Exist | ideas + impact. (n.d.). Co.Exist. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://www.fastcoexist. com/3017456/futurist-forum/the-brands-of-the-future-will-help-you-consumeless Transition Toronto - Supporting and nurturing the growth of a more resilient Toronto. (n.d.). Transition Toronto - Supporting and nurturing the growth of a more resilient Toronto. Retrieved March 9, 2014, from http://transitiontoronto. ning.com/?xg_source=msg_mes_network
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The image (except for the flying bottle) is an oil-on-canvas painting by Frank R. Paul, for the cover of Science Fiction Quarterly no. 2, winter 1941. Retrieved from: Weist, J. (2002). Bradbury: An Illustrated Life: a Journey to Far Metaphor. William Morrow.