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The San Juan Weekly
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The San Juan Weekly
JJanuary y 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Health Disparities Between the Mainland & Puerto Rico
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By Kenneth D. McClintock
609 San Jorge St, Santurce
I
n a week in which a majority of the members of the House voted in favor of repealing health care reform, it is important to restate what that reform means for the nation. Restate the importance of health care reform to the over 4 million American citizens who live outside the 50 states but within the nation, in our nation’s territories, particularly Puerto Rico. Out of sight, out of mind. Disenfranchised, and therefore lacking the political power to erase the health disparities that issue, not from cultural, ethnic, racial or physiological differences, but from geographic and statutory inequalities. Unlike the states, Puerto Rico administers its Medicaid program under a statutory cap on funding, which has significantly limited our ability to provide adequate health care services to our
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neediest population. Because of the cap, prior to enactment of health care reform, or ACA, our share of the Medicaid program was 80% of every dollar spent on health care services to the poor, as com-
pared to the 20% of every dollar spent by a state with similar populations. The poorest jurisdiction of the nation was paying, not twice, not three times, but four times what a comparable state, with three times the per capita income, would pay. No wonder the cost of the program was unsustainable, and was a major factor in the 43% budget deficit, the largest in the nation. As a result of territory-specific provisions included in ACA, proposed by Governor Fortuño and Congressman Pierluisi and supported by the White House, Puerto Rico’s statutory cap was increased by approximately $5.6 billion over 10 years. While these additional federal Medicaid dollars are still significantly less than the federal funding that would be provided to a state with our per capita income, the funds are critical to our ability to provide health care services to our population in need. ACA also included an additional $925 million for Puerto Rico to use beginning in 2014 either to establish a health insurance exchange or for additional Medicaid funding. Unlike in the 50 States, the territoryspecific Medicaid provisions were not intended to fundamentally reshape the private insurance marketplace in Puerto Rico. Instead, these provisions were designed to address disparities in treatment under federal health care programs and to help Puerto Rico’s Medicaid program partially “catch up” with the rest of the country. As a result of these critical new Medicaid funds, the Government of Puerto Rico has begun to implement major improvements in its Medicaid program to increase access for beneficiaries, increase preventive care coverage and to ensure more accountability for health plans. The new program, known as “MiSalud”, My Health, is a managed care system for the Medicaid population focused on coordination of care. It integrates physical and behavorial health services; ensures that the provider community can focus on delivering care rather than on profit making; provides incentives to ensure that health plans meet specified quality metrics; pays providers promptly when they render
services; improves our monitoring strategy to ensure services are provided in the most cost effective manner. In addition to improving the Medicaid program, Puerto Rico has passed local legislation to implement additional protection to patients. On December 2010, the Governor signed into law an amendment to the Puerto Rico Patient Protection Act to include the new national patient protection requirements as local law. In Puerto Rico, we don’t see these additional Congressionally-mandated patient protections as unfunded federal mandates or as Federal impositions, but as rights that patients should enjoy regardless of Federal statutes, so the Governor has statutorily transformed them into rights protected by the territory, no longer subject to attempts at Congressional repeal. For example, now under territorial law, health insurance cannot discriminate for preexisting conditions to patients under 18 years old, and dependents are expanded up to 26 years of age. The Governor also enacted into law expanding Mi Salud program to municipal public employees and public corporations. The law was also amended to allow for the state government to have the capability to negotiate a product that will be available to small business employers of 2 to 50 employees and individuals, providing adequate coverage at a lower price. In the new legislative session that began last week, the Governor will be introducing for enactment a new health insurance code that regulates the industry according to new market trends and federal regulations. While this conference is focused on Medicaid, the past disparities in Medicaid that have been partially corrected by increased funding included in ACA is only part of the political and statutory health disparities issue in Puerto Rico. Under Medicare, while our workers pay the full federal payroll tax, their health care providers are reimbursed at a much lower rate than on the mainland. This particular disparity represents hundreds of millions of dollars less for our health-care providers.
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Comes from page 3 For those who actively serve in our nation’s defense, or have served in the past, the disparities are even worse. Our active military and their families do not receive the same TriCare benefits available to servicemen and women , and their families in the rest of the nation. Not only are they denied the right to vote for their Commander-in-Chief, but their Commander-in-Chief doesn’t order his Secretary of Defense to eliminate this disparity administratively, as he can do. If we can do away with Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, we certainly can eliminate TriCare discrimi-
nation if there is the political will. Last Sunday, I eulogized two members of our National Guard who were laid to rest at the National Cemetery after dying simultaneously in Irak. They died for us all, defending the American way of life of New Yorkers, Washingtonians and Puerto Ricans. When they joined, what state or territory they hailed from was irrelevant. When they died, Al Qaeda didn’t care where they were from. The fact that they were from Puerto Rico only became relevant when they, or now their heirs, apply for health care and other benefits, or for the right to decide who sends them off to war.
For those who served our nation in conflicts past, while the Department of Veterans Affairs has extraordinary staff to tend to our veterans medical needs, the truth is that new and expanded Veterans Affairs facilities are funded by Congress, not so much based on need as on political influence. In that sense, our territorial delegate’s voting power, when he had a vote, did not compare with the eight votes, two in the Senate and six in the House, our veterans would have in a comparably-populated State of the Union. As strong a voice as he has, and uses effectively, in the United House of Representatives, it is the power of the
vote, rather than the volume of a voice, what determines where Veterans facilities will be placed, and where services will be rendered. The billions of funding denied by not-quite equal treatment in Medicaid, and the unequal treatment in other Federal health programs prevents us from adequately compensating our health care workers, which fuels the stampede of many of our best specialists and nurses to fill the bilingual needs in the several states, rather than the basic health needs in their native Puerto Rico, with better compensation that is sometimes twice or three times what they would make here.
Two Doctors and 101 Individuals Indicted and Arrested for Mail Fraud Conspiracy L
ate yesterday, a federal grand jury issued a 162-count indictment, charging 101 defendants with mail fraud conspiracy and mail fraud. A separate six-count indictment, related to the same scheme, charged six individuals with mail fraud conspiracy and mail fraud, announced Rosa Emilia Rodríguez-Vélez, United States Attorney for the District of Puerto Rico. Doctors José A. Fontanillas-Pino and Edwin Pérez-Loran, of Quebradillas, Puerto Rico, are the lead defendants in each indictment. The victim of the offenses charged in both indictments was American Family Life Assurance Company (AFLAC), which paid out over $800,000 to its policyholders as a result of the fraudulent scheme. The first indictment alleges that from June 2004 until September 2008, Dr. Fontanillas-Pino, who has a specialty in pediatrics, falsely completed and signed the physician statement section of AFLAC’s Accidental Injury Claim Form and/or prescription form, falsely certifying injuries for AFLAC claimants and/ or policyholders. He falsely represented
that the claimants had suffered injuries, when in fact they had not sustained any such injuries, and Dr. Fontanillas-Pino never conducted a physical examination of any of the claimants. Fontanillas-Pino was paid $10 by the AFLAC claimants for each false claim form that he completed and signed, and caused a total disbursement by AFLAC of at least $877,925.00 in U.S. currency, by way of checks, that were sent to the policyholders through the U.S. Postal Service. Defendant number two of the first indictment, Luis Pagán-González, was an AFLAC accident insurance policyholder who at times served as an intermediary between other AFLAC policyholders and Dr. Fontanillas. Pagán-González recruited and charged the policyholders $20 and paid Dr. Fontanillas $10 from each false claim form that he completed and signed. Defendant number 59, Ulises Ramos-Ramírez, was also an AFLAC accident insurance policyholder and at times also served as an intermediary between other AFLAC policyholders and Dr. Fontanillas. The remaining defendants were
AFLAC accident insurance policyholders, spouses and/or dependents who submitted false claim forms for non-existent injuries to AFLAC. The second indictment alleges that Dr. Edwin Pérez-Loran falsely completed and signed the physician statement section of AFLAC’s Accidental Injury Claim Form and /or prescription form, falsely certifying injuries for AFLAC claimants and/or policyholders. Dr. Pérez-Loran did not conduct a physical examination in the majority of cases of AFLAC claimants and was paid $10 for each false claim form he completed and signed. At the same time, the doctor paid defendant Edgardo Gotay $4 for each false claim form that Gotay filled. The other defendants: Rafael Rosado, Wilmarie VergesPérez, Rosa E. Nieves-Rivera and Israel Guzmán-Valle are charged in both indictments. “The doctors charged today used their medical licenses to unlawfully enrich themselves at the expense of AFLAC. Their submission of false injury claim forms on behalf of insured individuals
caused AFLAC to disburse over $800,000 for injuries which were non-existent. The price of this illegal scheme is ultimately paid by the consumers, whose insurance premiums will increase to cover the loss sustained by the company as a result of these fraudulent claims. We will continue to investigate and prosecute those who devise and participate in these fraudulent schemes to the full extent of the law,” stated U.S. Attorney Rodriguez-Velez. If convicted, the defendants could face a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and/or fines of up to $250,000. This investigation was conducted by the FBI and the case is being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorney Julia Díaz-Rex. Criminal indictments are only charges and not evidence of guilt. A defendant is presumed to be innocent until and unless proven guilty.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
The Vía Verde Pipeline Project T
he Vía Verde Pipeline is a planned natural gas network to supply energy from north to south in Puerto Rico a project of Governor Luis Fortuño. Two formers Governors of Puerto Rico Carlos Romero Barceló and Rafael Hernández Colón support the Vía Verde Pipeline giving a bipartisan support to the project. The Army Corps of Engineers’s permit office suspended all project efforts for 45 days to require the Electric Authority (AEE) to respond to all agency and public concerns. AEE expects the delay to take until march. Vía Verde Pipeline will supply the island with a cleaner energy source while at the same time reducing the cost of generating electricity up to 30 percent. It will also reduce gas emissions 60 percent while creating 5,000 direct and indirect jobs. The island of Puerto Rico uses 36,000 million megawatts of electricity annually. Current cost for 1 million BTUs with petroleum burning is $12.25. With Vía Verde, the
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cost would be reduced to $5.15, according to government figures. Dubbed (Green Way), the pipeline will distribute natural gas from the Peñuelas/Guayanilla area north to the Arecibo Cambalache Plant on to Palo Seco/San Juan. Vía Verde is a transfer line of natural gas from the Costa Sur Sugar Plantation to the Cambalache, Palo Seco and San Juan plantations. Prepa will convert several oilfired plants to natural gas, starting with Costa Sur’s units 5 and 6, which should be up and running December 2011. Subsequently, Prepa plants Cambalache, Palo Seco units 3 and 4, and San Juan units 5 through 10 will convert to natural gas, phases scheduled to be complete by the end of 2011. Conversions would boost natural gas generation to a whooping 71% (and reduce oil power to 12%) llion pipeline project. by 2012. As projected, the “Via Verde” The Puerto Rico Electric Authowill negatively impact forest areas, rity in combination with Green Puerto Rico will operate the over $500 mi- hydrographic basins, lands fit for agriculture, and the all-important and endangered karstic region of northern Puerto Rico. It will also represent further dependence on another form of fossil fuel that, while less polluting than the current oil based system of electricity generation, will still contribute to global warming. The government’s projections of † SET FULL DESDE cost reduction for consumers are also $ under fire. AEE (or PREPA in English) REG. $398 claims that there will be a 30% reducSET QUEEN tion in costs for electricity consumpDESDE tion. Independent analysts estimate $ that this figure has been grossly exaREG. $578 ggerated and that the real reduction in cost will be close to 18%, much, if not all of which, will be cancelled out
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by market fluctuations in the price of gas and by the government’s need to cover the cost of construction of the project. Furthermore, the estimated cost of the project (US$350 - to $500 million) is unrealistic and, as per past experiences with large-scale projects under NPP (New Progressive Party) administrations, cost overruns and continuous change orders - with dubious purposes - will more than likely increase that cost. According to officials at EcoEléctrica, gas output at their facilities will not provide enough natural gas to power generators beyond Costa Sur. While the 45 days suspension will give AEE time to answer the environmental and other issues, Puerto Rico needs the project regardless to meet day by day normal demand.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Earthquake Puerto Rico-2011
T
he deepest point in the earth’s crest is the Puerto Rican Trench. Natural movements here secure our island as a sector with an abnormaly
high propensity for earthquakes and tsunamis. During the past 12 months over a dozen earthquakes were felt in our sector of which 3 registered over 5.3 richter scale.
We are a rezilient peoplee facing constant challen-ge including hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis, mudslides,etc. As soon as the crisis passes we forget the horror experienced. Perhaps we should recall these events as they do reoccur and it seems their frequency is accelerating.
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Earthquake PR-1918 T he San FermĂn earthquake, also known as the Puerto Rico earthquake of 1918, was a major earthquake that struck the island of Puerto Rico at 10:14am on October 11, 1918. The magnitude for the earthquake has been reported at around 7.5 (or Level IX in the Rossi-Forel scale used at that time); however, that might not be an exact number. The main-shock epicenter occurred offshore about 5 km (3 miles) from the northwestern coast of the island, somewhere along the Puerto Rico Trench. The earthquake triggered a tsunami with waves measured at approxima-
tely 5.5 meters (20 feet) that lashed the west coast of the island and is remembered as one of the worst natural disasters that have struck the island. The losses resulting from the disaster were approximately 116 casual-
ties and $4 million in i property. p t The epicenter of the 1918 Puerto Rico Earthquake was located in the thqu Mona Passage about 16 km Mon (100 miles) from the northwestern coast of the island, somewhere along an old leftlateral strike-slip fault close to the Mona late Passage. The strongest ground shaking has Pas been estimated at around a magnitude 7.3 bee or 7.5, or Level IX (Rossi-Forel scale). The resulting tsunami affected primarily the res west coast city of the Island (primarily Mawe
yaguez) and other adjacent towns as well. As a result of the earthquake, numerous structures in the west coast suffered irreparable damages. Factories and production centrals were virtually destroyed, while bridges and roads were severely damaged. The earthquake caused several mudslides in areas where the magnitude exceeded Level VII, but none of it was deemed as tragic. Also, the river currents were affected, which, in many cases affected the foundations of many bridges which ended up collapsing.
The reported casualties of the earthquake have been estimated somewhere between 91 to 116 deaths. Approximately 40 of these deaths were caused by the tsunami. Also, damages to property were estimated at around $4 million, which was a huge amount at that time. Several aftershocks were reported immediately after the main earthquake. On October 24 and November 12, two strong aftershocks were reported in the island. However, no damages were reported as a result.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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Interview of Richard Carrion on the Puerto Rican Economy San Juan Weekly, commented the economic situation. “The critical thing now is to achieve tax reform. I think we also have to attack the cost of energy. We need a stimulus in different sectors, which is part of what we’re doing, promote the establishment of new businesses. The main thing right now is the generation of jobs and the more stimuli that open and expand businesses and shops, remove obstacles and do it ourselves by ourselves. In this direction is the People’s
Bank with our new project VISION, allowing new dreamers to see something new is possible, and that motivation is contagious”. As for the imposition of a 4% tax on foreign companies, Carrión said “I do not favor the way they did it. I regret to see that some ideas are rejected, wherever they come from. Right now the important thing is to straighten the budget and stimulate job creation. Everyone has a particular way to make a contribution”.
Look who called Jenny… Carie Fisher!
By: Daniel Morales Pomales
I
n an attempt to motivate and give hope to local business, the CEO of the largest local bank on the island, Richard Carrion, presented Banco Popular new commercial banking campaign titled “Vision.” The campaign aims to inform buyers and sellers or anyone interested in developing a business, opportunities and ideas that Banco Popular de Puerto Rico offers to make dreams come true. It includes television, radio, alternative media and press. It was designed by Badillo Nazca Saatchi & directed by
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Marcos Zurinaga with music by Cucco Peña. Supporters include Tomcas Work and Safety Shoes, Airmaster, the Association of Doctors of Ob Gyn Center and Hatillo Kash and Karry. In addition there is a contest from February to June, inviting customers and the general public to participate by submitting a new idea for a business or an existing one you want to expand. “Business Ideas 2011”, is a commercial prize among the 16 preidentified areas across the island For more information you can access www. popular.com / business Carrion, in an aside with The
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
In New Military, Data Overload Can Be Deadly By THOM SHANKER and MATT RICHTEL
W
hen military investigators looked into an attack by American helicopters last February that left 23 Afghan civilians dead, they found that the operator of a Predator drone had failed to pass along crucial information about the makeup of a gathering crowd of villagers. But Air Force and Army officials now say there was also an underlying cause for that mistake: information overload. At an Air Force base in Nevada, the drone operator and his team struggled to work out what was happening in the village, where a convoy was forming. They had to monitor the drone’s video feeds while participating in dozens of instant-message and radio exchanges with intelligence analysts and troops on the ground. There were solid reports that the group included children, but the team did not adequately focus on them amid the swirl of data — much like a cubicle worker who loses track of an important e-mail under the mounting pile. The team was under intense pressure to protect American forces nearby, and in the end it determined, incorrectly, that the villagers’ convoy posed an imminent threat, resulting in one of the worst losses of civilian lives in the war in Afghanistan. “Information overload — an accurate description,” said one senior military officer, who was briefed on the inquiry and spoke on the condition of anonymity because the case might yet result in a court martial. The deaths would have been prevented, he said, “if we had just slowed things down and thought deliberately.” Data is among the most potent weapons of the 21st century. Unprecedented amounts of raw information help the military determine what targets to hit and what to avoid. And drone-based sensors have given rise to a new class of wired warriors who must filter the information sea. But sometimes they are drowning. Research shows that the kind of intense multitasking required in such situations can make it hard to tell good information from bad. The military faces a balancing act: how to help soldiers exploit masses of data without succumbing to overload.
Across the military, the data flow has surged; since the attacks of 9/11, the amount of intelligence gathered by remotely piloted drones and other surveillance technologies has risen 1,600 percent. On the ground, troops increasingly use hand-held devices to communicate, get directions and set bombing coordinates. And the screens in jets can be so packed with data that some pilots call them “drool buckets” because, they say, they can get lost staring into them. “There is information overload at every level of the military — from the general to the soldier on the ground,” said Art Kramer, a neuroscientist and director of the Beckman Institute, a research lab at the University of Illinois. The military has engaged researchers like Mr. Kramer to help it understand the brain’s limits and potential. Just as the military has long pushed technology forward, it is now at the forefront in figuring out how humans can cope with technology without being overwhelmed by it. At George Mason University in Virginia, researchers measure the brain waves of study subjects as they use a simulation of the work done at the Nevada Air Force base. On a computer screen, the subjects see a video feed from one drone and the locations of others, along with instructions on where to direct them. The subjects wear a cap with electrodes attached, measuring brain waves. As the number of drones and the pace of instructions increases, the brain shows sharp spikes in a kind of electrical activity called theta — cause for concern among the researchers. “It’s usually an index of extreme overload,” said Raja Parasuraman, a director of the university’s human factors and applied cognition program. As the technology allows soldiers to pull in more information, it strains their brains. And military researchers say the stress of combat makes matters worse. Some research even suggests that younger people wind up having more trouble focusing because they have grown up constantly switching their attention. For the soldier who has been using computers and phones all his life, “multitasking might actually have negative effects,” said Michael Barnes, research psychologist at the Army Research Lab at Aberdeen, Md., citing several university studies on the subject. In tests at a base in Orlando, Mr. Barnes’s group has found that when soldiers operate a tank while monitoring remote video feeds, they often fail to see targets right
around them. Mr. Barnes said soldiers could be trained to use new technology, “but we’re not going to improve the neurological capability.” On the other hand, he said, the military should not shy away from improving the flow of data in combat. “It would be like saying we shouldn’t have automobiles because we have 40,000 people die on the roads each year,” he said. “The pluses of technology are too great.” The military is trying novel approaches to helping soldiers focus. At an Army base on Oahu, Hawaii, researchers are training soldiers’ brains with a program called “mindfulness-based mind fitness training.” It asks soldiers to concentrate on a part of their body, the feeling of a foot on the floor or of sitting on a chair, and then move to another focus, like listening to the hum of the air-conditioner or passing cars. “The whole question we’re asking is whether we can rewire the functioning of the attention system through mindfulness,” said one of the researchers, Elizabeth A. Stanley, an assistant professor of security studies at Georgetown University. Recently she received financing to bring the training to a Marine base, and preliminary results from a related pilot study she did with Amishi Jha, a neuroscientist at the University of Miami, found that it helped Marines to focus. Even as it worries about digital overload, the Army is acknowledging that technology may be the best way to teach this new generation of soldiers — in particular, a technology that is already in their pockets. In Army basic training, new recruits can get instruction from iPhone apps on subjects as varied as first aid and military values. As part of the updated basic training regimen, recruits are actually forced into information overload — for example, testing first aid skills while running an obstacle course. “It’s the way this generation learns,” said Lt. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, who oversees initial training for every soldier. “It’s a multitasking generation. So if they’re multitasking and combining things, that’s the way we should be training.” The intensity of warfare in the computer age is on display at a secret intelligence and surveillance installation at Langley Air Force Base in Virginia, a massive, heavily airconditioned warehouse where hundreds of TVs hang from black rafters. Every day across the Air Force’s $5 billion global surveillance network, cubicle warriors review 1,000 hours of video, 1,000 high-altitude spy photos and hundreds of hours of “signals intelligence” — usually cellphone calls. At the Langley center, officially called Distributed Common Ground System-1, heavy multitasking is a daily routine for people like Josh, a 25-year-old first lieutenant (for security reasons, the Air Force would not release his full name). For 12 hours a day, he monitors an avalanche of images on 10 overhead television screens. They deliver what Josh and his colleagues have nicknamed “Death TV” — live video streams from drones above Afghanistan showing Taliban movements, suspected insurgent safehouses and American combat units headed into battle. As he watches, Josh uses a classified instant-messaging system showing as many as 30 different chats with commanders at the front, troops in combat and headquarters at the rear. And he is hearing the voice of a pilot at the controls of a U-2 spy plane high in the stratosphere. “I’ll have a phone in one ear, talking to a pilot on the headset in the other ear, typing in chat at the same time and watching screens,” Josh says. “It’s intense.” The stress lingers when the shift is over. Josh works alongside Anthony, 23, an airman first class who says his brain hurts each night, the way feet ache after a long march. “You have so much information coming in that when you go home — how do you take that away? Sometimes I work out,” Anthony said. “Actually, one of my things is just being able to enjoy a nice bowl of cereal with almond milk. I feel the tension is just gone and I can go back again.” Video games don’t do the trick. “I need something real,” he said.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
11 Mainland
Marijuana Dispensaries Are Facing New Scrutiny
Harborside Health Center is one of the largest dispensaries on the West Coast and a model for the industry. By ZUSHA ELINSON
M
edical marijuana dispensaries try hard to maintain the appearance that they are nonprofit health centers. Customers are referred to as “patients,” and merchandise as “medicine.” Yoga classes are often available, along with health-related literature. But the rivers of cash flowing in and out of these businesses are attracting scrutiny from local and federal authorities who say they are trying to distinguish between legitimate health practitioners and sellers of illegal drugs. “We’re trying to get to a point where we get we can weed out — for lack of a better word — to filter out the people that are really perverting this law just to sell drugs,” said Frank Carrubba, deputy district attorney in Santa Clara County. Last month, the four operators of New Age Healing Collective in San Jose were charged with illegal marijuana sales and money laundering after the police said they turned up two sets of books. The raid was part of a series of recent investigations into San Jose dispensaries by the Santa Clara Special Enforcement Team. One ledger, kept at the tiny dispensary, showed New Age Healing losing $123,128 since May, according to the police. Another, which the police said had been discovered inside a cash-filled shoe box in the home of the couple that operated the center, told a different story: $222,238 in profits. The couple said it was operating a legitimate marijuana dispensary and had done nothing wrong, according to one of their lawyers. In Oakland, Harborside Health Center, one of the largest dispensaries on the West Coast and a model for the medical marijuana industry, is being audited by the Internal Revenue Service, said Harborside’s chief executive, Stephen DeAngelo. An I.R.S. spokesman said the agency neither confirmed nor denied audits. Last month, officials in Oakland postponed plans to license large-scale marijuana farms in the city after the Justice Department and the city attorney warned separately that the businesses could violate state and federal marijuana laws. The medical marijuana industry has continued to flo-
urish since a state proposition to legalize cannabis was defeated in November. Oakland finance officials estimate that the city’s three dispensaries generated $35 million to $38 million in revenue last year, up from $28 million in 2009. San Jose now boasts 98 dispensaries — four times the number of 7-Eleven convenience stories in the city. State law allows collectives to cultivate medical marijuana, but the law is less clear when it comes to selling the product, said William Panzer, a lawyer who helped write California’s seminal medical marijuana law, Proposition 215. Under guidelines issued by the state attorney general, dispensaries are advised not to profit from their activities. But the guidelines are fuzzy, Mr. Panzer said, and there is virtually no case law on the issue. “Let’s come out from under the shadows and say, ‘Here are the rules,’ ” Mr. Panzer said. “The law around distribution is very hazy, and we need the Legislature to do something. We’ve fallen behind other states on regulations for medical marijuana sales.” After staking out the New Age Healing Collective for eight months, Santa Clara County narcotics agents raided it on Oct. 7. They found marijuana and a black ledger listing sales and expenses, a police report said. The ledger stated that the collective’s $255,642 in sales from May through September were offset by $323,170 in operating expenses and $55,600 that the dispensary spent on rent and payroll. The same day, officers raided the home of Jonathan Mitchell and Sheresie Dyer, the operators of New Age Healing. In a clothes closet, according to the police report, they found a Glock pistol, a pound of marijuana and a shoe box containing $15,971 and a “cash book.” The ledger, the report stated, showed that New Age’s gross receipts were $601,008 for those five months, a $222,238 profit. “Their described activity as a collective is nothing more than a retail store,” wrote Sgt. Dean Ackemann, who is now with the San Jose district attorney’s office. “Their only actions are providing marijuana to customers at street-level prices.” The police say they also found state tax returns, listing $84,111 in gross sales for the second quarter of 2010, which the report characterized as “highly suspect.” Geoffrey Rawlings, Mr. Mitchell’s lawyer, said that he would not comment on the specifics of the case, but that his client was legally providing medical marijuana to patients. Mr. Mitchell and the others have all pleaded not guilty. Mr. Rawlings noted that the police were not raiding pizza restaurants, which are also cash businesses, but that the profile of marijuana dispensary operators might play a role in attracting the attention of the authorities. “When you’re dealing with medical cannabis and you see these blond, dreadlocked corporate officers coming and going, it kind of agitates law enforcement and raises their hackles a little more than the pizza shop owner down the street,” Mr. Rawlings said. “They are convinced that these people are breaking the laws without any evidence in advance that they’re breaking the law.” Medical marijuana activists have loudly protested the raids on San Jose dispensaries, which have proliferated without any city regulations. “We are extremely concerned by the raids,” said Paul Stewart, executive director of the Medicinal Cannabis Collective Coalition, which represents several San Jose dispensaries. “They are acting on what could be considered a specious legal finding by the D.A.; their finding is that all collectives are operating illegally because they are making a profit.” Mr. Stewart said the dispensaries were easy targets since they were out in the open, unlike methamphetamine
labs or other illicit drug operations. “There is a concern that it appears they are attacking the low-hanging fruit,” he said. Because laws are murky, dispensaries increasingly operate in the gray area between large-scale businesses and nonprofit health centers. “It’s almost a hybrid operation,” said Betty Yee, the Bay Area’s representative on the Board of Equalization, which oversees state taxes. “It’s kind of difficult line to straddle for them, but a lot of them are doing it.” Ms. Yee also said that although money was pouring into dispensaries, that did not mean operators were making big profits. “The cost of their product is so huge that there is sometimes a perception that they’re making a lot of money when in fact their margins are pretty thin,” she said. Though federal authorities have halted raids on medical marijuana dispensaries under the Obama administration, the I.R.S. has shown a new interest. Harborside officials said the I.R.S. was raising questions about a section of the tax code known as 280E. That section, aimed at drug kingpins, prohibits companies from deducting any expenses if they are “trafficking in controlled substances.” Harborside, which serves 70,000 members, has been lobbying the federal government to exempt medical marijuana dispensaries from the law. It sent a letter to Senator Barbara Boxer, Democrat of California, stating that it could be taxed out of business if the law was not changed. “Harborside Health Center currently employs approximately 80 individuals in Oakland, CA,” the letter reads. “Unless we can change this law, these jobs are in jeopardy.” Mr. DeAngelo, the Harborside chief executive, said that all the profits were put back into the business — and that the dispensary was not a drug dealer. “Our contention is that what we’re doing is legal and not trafficking, and it’s not appropriate to apply it to us,” he said. “This is an industrywide issue.”
Mainland 12
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Where News Is Power, a Fight to Be Well-Armed By ASHLEY PARKER
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obby Maldonado has the morning routine of a well-trained marathoner. With the help of three alarm clocks, he gets up at 4 a.m., is showered and out the door in less than an hour, and scans his BlackBerry almost constantly as he makes his pretimed 12- to 13-minute trek to the Red Line Metro stop where he catches the first train downtown. He knows exactly where to stand so he can get into the car that deposits him just steps from the escalator at the Farragut North station. “It’s an efficiency thing,” he explained, “so I don’t get stuck behind people, so I hit the crosswalk at the right minute.” Cutting diagonally across Farragut Square, he arrives at his office at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on H Street just after 5:30 a.m. There, in a darkened cubicle, he scans the Internet for the day’s news and condenses it into a twopage memo that he shoots off to Thomas J. Donohue, the Chamber’s president, and other top executives before 8 a.m. He is never late. Mr. Maldonado, 26, is one of the dozens of young aides throughout the city who rise before dawn to pore over the news to synthesize it, summarize it and spin it, so their bosses start the day well-prepared. Washington is a city that traffics in information, and as these 20-something staff members are learning, who knows what — and when they know it — can be the difference between professional advancement and barely scraping by. “Information is the capital market of Washington, so you know something that other people don’t know and you know something earlier than other
people know it is a formulation for increasing your status and power,” said David Perlmutter, the director of the School of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Iowa. “So any edge you can use to get stuff faster, earlier, better or exclusively is very important.” For Mr. Maldonado, who said that “the information wars are won before work,” that means rising early to browse all of the major newspapers, new polling data, ideological Web sites and dozens of news alerts needed to equip his bosses with the best, most up-todate nuggets. “Our executives walk into meetings and they’re doing battles, whether it’s on health care or cap and trade, and information is power, and my job is to make sure they’re armed with the most powerful information,” he said. “It’s reading the 1,000 stories in the papers and Hill rags, and finding that one needle in the haystack that’s going to matter.” No hard data exists on how many people spend the hours before breakfast rounding up news and e-mailing clips and quick summaries, and everyone’s routine varies slightly. Andrew Bates, a media monitor in the White House communications office, is up by 4 a.m. to look over 30 to 40 Web sites and blogs, as well as watch the morning television news and talk shows, and send out relevant news clips to the top ranks of the Obama administration. He has even been known — with the help of Google Translator — to translate articles from other languages. Mr. Bates could “give anyone in this town a run for their money on ‘Jeopardy!’ ” Jen Psaki, the deputy White House communications director, said jokingly. Mr. Bates, 24, said his early-morning search was intended to harvest
“something that’s very strong, that advances an argument well, or anything that could be jeopardizing or damaging, like criticism.” Over at the Treasury Department, Megan Leary, a financial economist for the markets room, and six other analysts are each assigned one day a week to get to work at roughly 5 a.m. There, they monitor overnight shifts in the markets and put together a morning briefing for the Treasury secretary. “I think a lot of why the markets room is valuable is because it’s very unfiltered,” Ms. Leary said. “It’s not like we write something and a week later it goes to the secretary or president. They get it that day.” Ms. Leary is becoming a familiar customer to the drivers of the cab company she calls the night before to set up her predawn rides. “Sometimes I just get in a cab and I don’t need to say where I’m going,” she said. “He just goes.” At the Chamber, Mr. Maldonado’s duties also include a morning phone call with Mr. Donohue, the president, who sometimes presses him for a more in-depth analysis on certain topics. “I study three hours every day, and every now and then I go before the professor and answer questions,” Mr. Maldonado said. “I’m not a policy expert, but I’ll always try to know two or three questions he might ask.” Getting up early is nothing new, but the lightning speed of news on the Internet and the proliferation of outlets like Politico, which place a premium on “winning” the day, has made the job more demanding and pushed the mornings ever earlier. “There’s no news cycle anymore,” Dr. Perlmutter said. “You don’t want to be coming into the office at 8 a.m., and everyone is saying, ‘Oh, my God, can you believe what happened?’ And you’re going, ‘What happened?’ ” Such a response is not likely to
come from Mr. Bates, according to the White House communications director, Dan Pfeiffer, who said these jobs benefited employer and employee. “Rapid response requires knowing that there is something that needs response,” Mr. Pfeiffer said. “For such a young guy, Andrew has a great ability to sniff out stories that need to be handled with dispatch. During our biggest fights, from health care to the Supreme Court confirmations, Andrew repeatedly spotted potential problems in the farthest reaches of the Internet before anyone else. That information was essential to our success.” A Democratic National Committee spokeswoman, Brandi Hoffine, rises between 5 and 6 a.m. for what she affectionately calls “Breakfast with Brandi”— the time she begins sending out news articles she sees as favorable to the committee’s agenda to her e-mail list of 500 or so reporters. “We all work in environments where a 24-hour news cycle can very quickly become a 24-minute news cycle,” Ms. Hoffine said. “Being in a reporter’s in-box first, even by a few minutes, can make a big difference.” Most of those who work the predawn shift go on to put in a more-thanfull day at the office, leaving in the evening like everyone else. The lack of sleep can make for a grind. But for Washington’s young and ambitious, it also provides a welcome opportunity to learn a department or an agency from the ground up and can often be a way to fast-track a career. In the White House, for instance, Dag Vega, the director of broadcast media, and Amy Brundage and Reid Cherlin, both administration press officers, all cut their teeth trolling for meaty early-morning news clips. Until recently, when he was promoted to assistant communications director for Speaker John A. Boehner’s political office, Kevin Boland, 25, put together a 50-page national press briefing for Mr. Boehner and his House office. He recalled getting up around 5 a.m., and still in his pajamas, putting on some coffee, and reading Web sites and compiling his report from home. At 7 a.m. he would hit the “send” button on his computer, and walk over to the Capitol for the rest of his day. “I found it helpful and valuable, and I have a much better appreciation for what the people in the office do,” Mr. Boland said, joking: “They at least have to know who I am if they want to junk me, or put me in the trash.”
The San Juan Weeekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
13 EDUCATION
Virtual Classrooms With No Teachers
By LAURA HERRERA
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n the first day of her senior year at North Miami Beach Senior High School, Naomi Baptiste expected to be greeted by a teacher when she walked into her precalculus class. “All there were were computers in the class,” said Naomi, who walked into a room of confused students. “We found out that over the summer they signed us up for these courses.” Naomi is one of over 7,000 students in Miami-Dade County Public Schools enrolled in a program in which core subjects are taken using computers in a classroom with no teacher. A “facilitator” is in the room to make sure students progress. That person also deals with any technical problems. These virtual classrooms, called elearning labs, were put in place last August as a result of Florida’s Class Size Reduction Amendment, passed in 2002. The amendment limits the number of students allowed in classrooms, but not in virtual labs. While most schools held an orientation about the program, some students and parents said they were not informed of the new class structure. Others said they were not given the option to choose whether they wanted this type of instruction, and they voiced concern over the program’s effectiveness. The online courses are provided by Florida Virtual School, which has been an option in the state’s public schools. The virtual school has provided online classes for home-schooled and traditional students who want to take extra courses. Students log on to a Web site to gain access to lessons, which consist mostly of
text with some graphics, and they can call, e-mail or text online instructors for help. The 54 participating schools in the Miami-Dade County system’s e-learning lab program integrate the online classes differently. A representative from the district said in an e-mail that the system “provided lab facilitators, training for those facilitators and coordination” between the district schools and the virtual school. Theresa Sutter, a member of the Parent Teacher Student Association at Miami Beach Senior High School, said she thought her daughter, Kelly, was done with virtual classes after she finished Spanish the previous year at home. When Kelly said that she had been placed in a virtual lab, Ms. Sutter recalled her “jaws dropped.” Neither of them had been told that Kelly would be in one. “It’s totally different from what classroom teaching is like, so it’s a completely different animal,” Ms. Sutter said. Under the state’s class-reduction amendment, high school classrooms cannot surpass a 25-student limit in core subjects, like English or math. Fourththrough eighth-grade classrooms can have no more than 22 students, and prekindergarten through third grade can have no more than 18. Alix Braun, 15, a sophomore at Miami Beach High, takes Advanced Placement macroeconomics in an e-learning lab with 35 to 40 other students. There are 445 students enrolled in the online courses at her school, and while Alix chose to be placed in the lab, she said most of her lab mates did not. “None of them want to be there,” Alix said, “and for virtual education you
have to be really self-motivated. This was not something they chose to do, and it’s a really bad situation to be put in because it is not your choice.” School administrators said that they had to find a way to meet class-size limits. Jodi Robins, the assistant principal of curriculum at Miami Beach High, said that even if students struggled in certain subjects, the virtual labs were necessary because “there’s no way to beat the classsize mandate without it.” In response to parental confusion about virtual classes, the Miami Beach High parent-teacher association created a committee on virtual labs. The panel works with the school toward “getting issues on the table and working proactively,” said Patricia Kaine, the association’s president. Some teachers are skeptical of how well the program can help students learn. “The way our state is dealing with class size is nearly criminal,” said Chris Kirchner, an English teacher at Coral Reef Senior High School in Miami. “They’re standardizing in the worst possible way, which is evident in virtual classes.” While Ms. Kirchner questions the instructional effectiveness of online courses, she said there was a place for them at some level. “I think there should be learning on the computer,” Ms. Kirchner said. “That part is from 2:30 p.m. on. The first part of the day should be for learning with people.” But Michael G. Moore, a professor of education at Pennsylvania State University, said programs that combine virtual education and face-to-face instruction could be effective. This is called the “blended learning concept.” “There is no doubt that blended
learning can be as effective and often more effective than a classroom,” said Mr. Moore, who is also editor of The American Journal of Distance Education. He said, however, that research and his experiences had shown that proper design and teacher instruction within the classroom were necessary. A facilitator who only monitors student progress and technical issues within virtual labs would not be categorized as part of a blendedlearning model, he said. Other variables include “the maturity and sophistication of the student,” he said. Despite some complaints about the virtual teaching method, administrators said e-learning labs were here to stay. And nationally, blending learning has already caught on in some areas. In Chicago Public Schools, high schools have “credit recovery” programs that let students take online classes they previously failed so they can graduate. Omaha Public Schools also have similar programs that require physical attendance at certain locations. Julie Durrand, manager of the elearning lab program, said the virtual school planned to work more closely with district schools to ensure success. She said virtual school officials wanted orientations to be mandatory in schools with labs. Ms. Durrand also predicted that labs would expand to middle schools and would include more grade levels in schools that currently limited the labs to juniors and seniors. There are six middle and K-8 schools using virtual labs in Miami, including Cutler Ridge Middle School and Frank C. Martin K-8 Center. “I truly believe this will be an option for many districts across the state,” Ms. Durrand said. “I think we just hit the tip of the iceberg.”
EDUCATION 14
The San Juan Weeekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Bending and Stretching Classroom Lessons to Make Math Inspire By KENNETH CHANG
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t the aptly named Tiny Thai restaurant here, a small table, about two and a half feet square, was jammed with a teapot, two plates of curry, a bowl of soup, two cups of tea, two glasses of water, a plate with two egg rolls, a plate of salad and an iPhone. For most people, this would have been merely an unwieldy lunch. For Vi Hart, her mind pondered the mathematical implications. “There’s a packing puzzle here,” she said. “This is the kind of thing where if you’re accustomed to thinking about these problems, you see them in everything.” Mathematicians over the centuries have thought long and deep about how tightly things, like piles of oranges, can be packed within a given amount of space. “Here we’ve got even another layer,” Ms. Hart said, “where you’re allowed to overhang off the edge of your square. So now you have a new puzzle, where maybe you want the big things near the edge because you can fit more of them off the edge before they fall off.” Ms. Hart — her given name is Victoria, but she has long since dropped the last six letters — has an audacious career ambition: She wants to make math cool. She effused, “You’re thinking about it, because it’s awesome.” She calls herself a full-time recreational mathemusician, an off-thebeaten-path choice with seemingly limited prospects. And for most of the two years since she graduated from Stony Brook University, life as a recreational mathemusician has indeed been a meager niche pursuit. Then, in November, she posted on YouTube a video about doodling in math class, which married a distaste for the way math is taught in school with an exuberant exploration of math as art . The rapid-fire narration begins, “O.K., let’s say you’re me and you’re in math class, you’re supposed to be
learning about exponential functions, but you’re having trouble caring about exponential functions because unfortunately your math class is probably not terribly engaging.” The video never shows her face, just her hands doodling in a notebook. She talks about binary trees, Hercules cutting off the heads of a mythical hydra (each severed neck grows two new heads, which is the essence of a binary tree), and a fractal pattern known as Sierpinski’s Triangle. She did another about drawing stars (really about geometry and polygons). Then another about doodling snakes (which segues into graph theory, “a subject too interesting to be included in most grade-school curricula,” she says). And another about prime numbers. (“Remember, we use prime numbers to talk to aliens. I’m not making this up.”) The videos went viral, viewed more than a million times. “You > Chuck Norris,” gushed a fan on her YouTube page. At first glance, Ms. Hart’s fascination with mathematics might seem odd and unexpected. She graduated with a degree in music, and she never took a math course in college. At second glance, the intertwining of art and math seems to be the family business. Her father, George W. Hart, builds sculptures based on geometric forms. His day job until last year was as a computer science professor at Stony Brook; he is now chief of content for the Museum of Mathematics, which is looking to open in Manhattan next year. The summer Ms. Hart was 13, she tagged along with her father to a computational geometry conference. “And I was hooked, immediately,” she said. “It was so different from school, where you are surrounded by this drudgery and no one is excited about it. Any gathering of passionate people is fun, really no matter what they’re doing. And in this case, it was mathematics.” In college, she continued attending math conferences and collaborated on a number of papers with Erik
D. Demaine, an M.I.T. professor best known for his origami creations. After finishing her music degree — as a senior, she composed and conducted a seven-part musical piece based on the seven Harry Potter books — “I couldn’t focus on one thing or ever see myself fitting into any little slot where I would have some sort of normal job,” Ms. Hart said. “If I want to spend a week carving fruit up into polyhedra, I want to spend a week carving fruit up into polyhedra, and where am I going to get a job doing that?” She did indeed spend a week carving fruit into polyhedrons, posting photographs and instructions on her Web site, vihart.com. Last summer, she became enamored of hyperbolic planes, mathematical surfaces that are typically represented as horse saddles or Pringles chips. Whereas others make bracelets or necklaces out of beads, Ms. Hart constructed hyperbolic planes out of them. She painted images of hyperbolic planes. She dried slices of fruit, which warped into hyperbolic planes. “It just wiggles all over the place,” she said of a hyperbolic plane. “People don’t think of it that way, as being like a wild and beautiful thing.” Such mathematical musings drew modest amounts of interest. In the fall, she was looking over some of her doodles. She thought of taking photographs of them and writing instructions for those, too, but she decided to try something different. She made her first doodling video. Working by herself, practically embracing a camera on a tripod, she created a video of her doodling seemingly from the point of view of the doodler. “I want a real first-person view,” she said, “because I want people to feel they can do this. People can. It’s mathematics that anyone can do.”
The ensuing attention has come with job offers and an income. In one week in December, she earned $300 off the advertising revenue that YouTube shares with video creators. She is also happy that, unlike in her early efforts, which drew an audience typical of mathematics research — older and male, mostly — the biggest demographic for her new videos, at least among registered users, are teenage girls. “I just think that’s really awesome,” she said, “because you’ve got girls in middle school and high school who are suddenly enjoy mathematics and enjoying being a little nerdy and smart, and we need that.” Ms. Hart has not decided her next step. She could accept one of the job offers. She has thought of pursuing a graduate degree in mathematics, although she worries about all the undergraduate courses she would need to catch up on. “What has become clear just recently is that I have options, and it’s very strange,” she said. Ultimately, she hopes she can be a Martin Gardner for the Web 2.0 era. Mr. Gardner, who died last year at age 95, wrote mathematics columns for Scientific American and other publications. “I want to be the ambassador of mathematics,” she said. For the holidays, she took advantage of the musical side of her mathemusician identity, rewriting “The 12 Days of Christmas.” For example, “On the fourth day of Christmas, my true love gave to me: the smallest possible number of sides on a polyhedron, the number of points that define a plane, the divisor of even numbers and any other number to the power of zero.” Mathematical translation: polyhedrons have a minimum of four sides, three points define a plane, two is a divisor of all even numbers, and any number raised to the power of zero is one.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
15
Sit. Stay. Parse. Good Girl! By NICHOLAS WADE
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haser, a border collie who lives in Spartanburg, S.C., has the largest vocabulary of any known dog. She knows 1,022 nouns, a record that displays unexpected depths of the canine mind and may help explain how children acquire language. Chaser belongs to John W. Pilley, a psychologist who taught for 30 years at Wofford College, a liberal arts institution in Spartanburg. In 2004, after he had retired, he read a report in Science about Rico, a border collie whose German owners had taught him to recognize 200 items, mostly toys and balls. Dr. Pilley decided to repeat the experiment using a technique he had developed for teaching dogs, and he describes his findings in the current issue of the journal Behavioural Processes. He bought Chaser as a puppy in 2004 from a local breeder and started to train her for four to five hours a day. He would show her an object, say its name up to 40 times, then hide it and ask her to find it, while repeating the name all the time. She was taught one or two new names a day, with monthly revisions and reinforcement for any names she had forgotten. Border collies are working dogs. They have a reputation for smartness, and they are highly motivated. They are bred to herd sheep indefatigably all day long. Absent that task, they must be given something else to do or they go stir crazy. Chaser proved to be a diligent student. Unlike human children, she seems to love her drills and tests and is always asking for more. “She still demands four to five hours a day,” Dr. Pilley said. “I’m 82, and I have to go to bed to get away from her.” One of Dr. Pilley’s goals was to see if he could teach Chaser a larger vocabulary than Rico acquired. But that vocabulary is based on physical objects that must be given a name the dog can recognize. Dr. Pilley found himself visiting Salvation Army stores and buying up sackfuls of used children’s toys to serve as vocabulary items. It was hard to remember all the names Chaser had to learn, so he wrote the name on each toy with indelible marker. In three years, Chaser’s vocabulary included 800 cloth animals, 116 balls, 26 Frisbees and a medley of plastic items. Children pick up about 10 new words a day until, by the time they leave high school, they know around 60,000 words. Chaser learned words more slowly but faced a harder task: Each sound was new and she had nothing to relate it to, whereas children learn words in a context that makes them easier to remember. For example, knives, forks and spoons are found together. Dr. Pilley does not know how large a vocabulary Chaser could have mastered. When she reached 1,000 items, he grew tired of teaching words and moved to more interesting topics like grammar. One of the questions raised by the Rico study was that of what was going through the dog’s mind when he was asked to fetch something. Did he think of his toys as items labeled fetch-ball, fetch-Frisbee, fetch-doll, or did he understand the word “fetch” separately from its object, as people do? Dr. Pilley addressed the question by teaching Chaser three different actions: pawing, nosing and taking an object. She was then presented with three of her toys and correctly pawed, nosed or fetched each one depending on the command given to her. “That experiment demonstrates conclusively that Chaser understood that the verb had a meaning,” Dr. Pilley said. The 1,022 words in Chaser’s vocabulary are all proper
nouns. Dr. Pilley also found that Chaser could be trained to recognize categories, in other words common nouns. She correctly follows the command “Fetch a Frisbee” or “Fetch a ball.” She can also learn by exclusion, as children do. If she is asked to fetch a new toy with a word she does not know, she will pick it out from ones that are familiar. Haunting almost every interaction between people and animals is the ghost of Clever Hans, a German horse that in the early 1900s would tap out answers to arithmetic problems with his hoof. The psychologist Oskar Pfungst discovered that Hans would get the answer right only if the questioner also knew the answer. He then showed that the horse could detect minute movements of the questioner’s head and body. Since viewers would tense as Hans approached the right number of taps, and relax when he reached it, the horse knew exactly when to stop. People project their expectations onto animals, particularly dogs, and can easily convince themselves the animal is achieving some humanlike feat when in fact it is simply reading cues unconsciously given by its master. Even though researchers are well aware of this pitfall, interpreting animal behavior is particularly tricky. In the current issue of Animal Behaviour, a leading journal, two previous experiments with dogs have been found wanting. In one report, researchers say they failed to confirm an experiment showing that dogs would yawn contagiously when people yawn. Another report knocks down an earlier finding that dogs can distinguish between rational and irrational acts. The danger of Clever Hans effects may be particularly acute with border collies because they are bred for the ability to pay close attention to the shepherd. Dogs that ignore their master or the sheep do not become parents, a fierce selective pressure on the breed’s behavior. “Watch a collie work with a sheepherder and you will come away amazed how small a gesture the person can do to communicate with his dog,” said Alexandra Horowitz, a dog behavior expert at Barnard College and author of “Inside of a Dog.” Juliane Kaminski, a member of the research team that tested Rico, was well aware of the Clever Hans effect. So she arranged for the dog to be given instructions in one room and to select toys from another, making it impossible for the experimenter to give Rico unwitting cues. Dr. Kaminski works at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany. Dr. Pilley took the same precaution in testing Chaser. He submitted an article describing his experiments to Scien-
ce, but the journal rejected it. Dr. Pilley said that the journal’s advisers had made valid criticisms, which he proceeded to address. He and his co-author, Alliston K. Reid of Wofford College, then submitted a revised article to Behavioural Processes. Dr. Horowitz, who was one of Science’s advisers in the review of Dr. Pilley’s report, said of the new article that “the experimental design looks pretty good.” Dr. Kaminski, too, regards the experiment as properly done. “I think the methodology the authors use here is absolutely sufficient to control for Clever Hans,” she said. The learning of words by Rico and Chaser may have some bearing on how children acquire language, because children could be building on the same neural mechanisms. Dr. Pilley and Dr. Reid conclude that their experiments “provide clear evidence that Chaser acquired referential understanding of nouns, an ability normally attributed to children.” But the experiment’s relevance to language is likely to be a matter of dispute. Chaser learns to link sounds to objects by brute repetition, which is not how children learn words. And she learns her words as proper nouns, which are specific labels for things, rather than as abstract concepts like the common nouns picked up by children. Dr. Kaminski said she would not go as far as saying that Chaser’s accomplishments are a step toward language. They show that the dog can combine words for different actions with words for objects. A step toward syntax, she said, would be to show that changing the order of words alters the meaning that Chaser ascribes to them. Dr. Pilley says he is working on just that point. “We’re trying to teach some elementary grammar to our dog,” he said. “How far we’ll be able to go we don’t know, but we think we are on the frontier.” His goal is to develop methods that will help increase communication between people and dogs. “We are interested in teaching Chaser a receptive, rudimentary language,” he said. A Nova episode on animal intelligence, in which Chaser stars, will be broadcast on Feb. 9. As with other animals for which prodigious feats of cognition have been reported, like Alex the gray parrot or Kanzi the bonobo, it is hard to place Chaser’s and Rico’s abilities in 28 AÑOS OFRECIENDO SERVICIO context. If their achievements are within the general capacity of their species, why have many other instances not been reMuñoz Marín, Caguas, P.R.are 00725 (Al lado Ja ported? If, on the otherAve. hand, their achievements unique, then either the researchers have lucked out in finding an Einstein of the species, & P E T C E N T E R or there could be something wrong with the experiments Cuido $ 15.00D/N like a Clever Hans effect. Grooming a $ 25.00 + Tax Dr. Pilley said that most border collies, with speTodos los días (no incluye desenrredo) cial training, “could be pretty Exijan su certificado, no dejen que los close to where Chaser is.” engañen sin experiencia. When he told Chaser’s dog El #1 CON DOS breeder of the experiment, GROOMERS CERTIFICADOS “he wasn’t surprised about the dog’sTeability, just that I nemo Chthe ihupatience had had ah as to teach s her,” Dr. Pilley usaid. Dr. Horowitz agreed: “It is not necessarily Chaser or Rico who is exceptional; it (787) 744-0829 is the attention that is lavis(787) 662-9081 hed on them,” she said.
Wine
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Toasting a Vintage, With Few Quibbles By ERIC ASIMO
T
HE critics have weighed in from every conceivable angle, and the results seem to be unanimous. The 2008 vintage for Oregon pinot noir is superb. While we on the wine panel occasionally enjoy the contrarian’s role — not that we seek it, mind you, but the hype machinery sometimes forces it on us — in this instance we must join in the acclaim. Indeed, the 2008 vintage for Oregon pinot noir is terrific. But whether you call the vintage superb, terrific, excellent or the superlative of your choice, it’s legitimate to ask, what does such praise mean? The answer may seem obvious: The wines are excellent, or many of them are, at least. But beyond that, a great vintage is not so obviously a great thing for consumers. For example, the 2005 vintages of Bordeaux and Burgundy were considered spectacular, and what did that mean? The wines are great, or they will be one day. Many need quite a few more years before they will be ready to drink. But for their potential, the wines fetched high prices, maybe even record prices, at least until the next great vintage. For wines like Bordeaux and Burgundy, the great vintages are often best for collectors, investors or those with the time, patience, storage and disposable income to give them the required aging. Smart consumers without interest in investing or long-term aging are often better served with good rather than great vintages, which will offer more immediate pleasure at a cheaper price. All this said, the ’08 Oregon pinot noirs transcend these rules of thumb. They will reward in 10 years or so of aging, but many of them will still give a great deal of pleasure now. They are not all expensive — our recent tasting of 20 bottles focused on the lower tier of wines from the Willamette Valley rather than single-vineyard wines, reserve cuvées and the like. Our 10 favorites were all under $50, and five of those were under $30. For the tasting, Florence Fabricant and I were joined by Joshua Nadel, the beverage director at Locanda Verde and at the Dutch, soon to open in SoHo, and Braithe Tidwell, the wine director at Union Square Cafe. As a group, these wines were consistently top-notch. They were balanced and well-structured by virtue of their lively acidity. They were full of delicious red-fruit flavors without being syrupy, over the top or, to use the dreaded phrase of wine marketers, “fruit forward.” They offered the rare combination of fruitiness and restraint. Most of them will be ver-
satile with food. They are “nonsteroidal pinot noirs,” as Joshua put it. What made the vintage so good? An uncharacteristically dry September and October, with warm days and cool nights, allowed grapes to achieve ripeness without sacrificing the freshness provided by good acidity. In contrast to very hot years, 2008 produced alcohol levels that are fairly moderate. All of our favorite wines were listed at 13 to 14 percent. Joshua described it as “cool-climate pinot noir from a ripe vintage,” which is pretty much the ideal. Different producers have different aims. The vintage allowed producers to make wines in the styles they favor. I tend to prefer restraint, balance, structure and subtlety in pinot noirs, and the panel largely agreed with me. People who prefer concentrated fruit flavors will not be disappointed with a wine like Beaux Frères Ribbon Ridge Vineyard, which did not make our top 10 and, at $70, was the most expensive in our tasting. They may also enjoy the Ken Wright Meredith Mitchell Vineyard ($45), another wine full of upfront fruit. Our No. 1 bottle was the Belle Pente Willamette Valley, beautifully balanced, well coiled with acidity and harmonious on the palate, with complex aromas of mint, red fruit, flowers and smoke. At $23, it was our best value. Our No. 2 bottle was the fresh, vibrant WillaKenzie Willamette Valley, which combined intriguing, exotic fruit aromas with an earthiness on the palate. These two wines were followed closely by the lively, structured Adelsheim Willamette Valley, and the complex, harmonious Et Fille Willamette Valley.
None of our top four wines cost more than $27. By contrast, we were slightly less enthusiastic about some of the more expensive wines in the tasting. While we certainly liked the Kilmore from Owen Roe at $40, and the Soter at $45, both from the Yamhill-Carlton District of the Willamette, they each had apparent flavors of new oak that were not so well integrated into the wine. So did the Antica Terra Willamette Valley at $48.
Tasting Report BEST VALUE Belle Pente Willamette Valley, $23, ✩✩✩½ Pinot Noir 2008 Well balanced and nicely structured with light texture and lingering flavors of red fruit, flowers and herbs. WillaKenzie Willamette Valley, $27, ✩✩✩ Pinot Noir 2008 Aromas of exotic red fruits, with fresh, vibrant, earthy flavors. Adelsheim Willamette Valley, $26, ✩✩✩ Pinot Noir 2008 Dry and subtle, with lively, high-toned fruit flavors and good structure. Et Fille Willamette Valley, $23, ✩✩✩ Pinot Noir 2008 Balanced and harmonious with complex flavors of flowers, minerals and dark fruits. Owen Roe Yamhill-Carlton District, $40, ✩✩ ½ The Kilmore Pinot Noir 2008 Bright and well-structured with concen-
Many factors can drive up the cost of a wine, including the high price of newoak barrels from France, which can run up to $1,000 each. Possibly, many people like the creamy vanilla, chocolate and spice flavors associated with new oak, but if it is not well integrated it can be an ungainly and distracting adornment, like the flashy chrome trim Detroit used to tack onto its luxury cars. As often seems to be the case, avoiding luxury cuvées is an easy consumer solution to the new-oak problem. But beware. If you go too far with the idea that cheaper is better, without regard to the philosophy of the producer, you can stray into the area of mass-produced wines flavored with cheap new-oak alternatives. Similarly, it’s a mistake to assume that every expensive wine is going to be oaky. You may miss some extraordinary wines from producers who believe in the benefits of aging wine in oak barrels but do it in a way that avoids imparting overt flavors. Regardless of these quibbles, the 2008 vintage is excellent. But the quality of the wines is due to more than just the vintage conditions. With each year of experience, winemakers in Oregon become better at understanding the combination of climate, vineyard and cellar work necessary to produce good wines. Sure, the 2008s are superb. But if the prices start rising, remember that the 2007s were pretty good, too. trated fruit flavors and plenty of oak. Soter Yamhill-Carlton District, $45, ✩✩ ½ Pinot Noir 2008 Loosely knit with lingering flavors of red fruit and flowers under a veneer of new oak. Cristom Willamette Valley, $27, ✩✩ ½ Mount Jefferson Cuvée Pinot Noir 2008 Dry and compact with aromas of mint, anise, red fruit and earth. Broadley Vineyards Willamette Valley, $40, ✩✩ ½ Estate-Sundance Barrel Selection Pinot Noir 2008 Rich and dense yet pleasing with flavors of herbs, red fruit and earth. Antica Terra Willamette Valley, $48, ✩✩ Pinot Noir 2008 Not at all shy, with plenty of sweet fruit and oak flavors up front. Benton Lane Willamette Valley, $22, ✩✩✩ Pinot Noir 2008 Forward and somewhat simple, with pleasing flavors of red fruit and flowers.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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ART
Fernando
Botero
F
ernando Botero Angulo (born April 19, 1932) is a Colombian figurative artist, self-titled “the most Colombian of Colombian artists” early on. He came to national prominence when he won the first prize at the Salón de Artistas Colombianos in 1958. Working most of the year in Paris, in the last three decades he has achieved international recognition for his paintings, drawings and sculpture, with exhibitions across the world. His art is collected by major museums, corporations and private collectors. In 2005, his series of drawings and paintings entitled Abu Ghraib, which was exhibited first in Europe, expressed his outrage at abuses during the Iraq War and concentrated on the dignity of the victims. The exhibit was featured at two United States venues in 2007.
Early life and education Fernando Botero was born the second of three children in Medellín, Antioquia, in the mountains of Colombia. His parents were David Botero and Flora Angulo. David Botero, a salesman who traveled by horseback, died when the boy was age four, and his mother worked as a seamstress. An uncle took a major role in his life. Although isolated from art as presented in museums and other cultural institutes, Botero was influenced by the Baroque style of the colonial churches and the rich life of the city. In 1944, after Botero attended a Jesuit school, Botero’s uncle sent him to a school for matadors for two years.[3] In 1948, at the age of 16, Botero published his first illustrations in the Sunday supplement of the El Colombiano daily paper. He used the money he was paid to attend high school at the Liceo de Marinilla de Antioquia. 1948 was the year Botero was first exhibited, in a group show along with other artists from the region.
Career Fernando Botero, Abu Ghraib, 2005, oil on canvas. Botero painted the abuses of Abu Ghraib between 2004 and 2005 as a permanent accusation From 1949 to 1950, Botero worked as a set designer, before moving to Bogotá in 1951. His first one-man show was held at the Galería Leo Matiz in Bogotá, a few months after his arrival. In 1952, Botero travelled with a group of artists to
Barcelona, where he stayed briefly before moving on to Madrid. In Madrid, Botero studied at the Academia de San Fernando. In 1952, he traveled to Bogotá, where he had a solo exhibit at the Leo Matiz gallery. Later that year, he won the ninth edition of the Salón de Artistas Colombianos. In 1953, Botero moved to Paris, where he spent most of his time in the Lo-
uvre, studying the works there. He lived in Florence, Italy from 1953 to 1954, studying the works of Renaissance masters. In recent decades, he has lived most of the time in Paris, but spends one month a year in his native city of Medellín. He has had more than 50 exhibits in major cities worldwide, and his work commands selling prices in the millions of dollars.
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ART
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January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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Style While his work includes still-lifes and landscapes, Botero has concentrated on situational portraiture. His paintings and sculptures are united by their proportionally exaggerated, or “fat” figures, as he once referred to them. Botero explains his use of these “large people”, as they are often called by critics, in the following way: “An artist is attracted to certain kinds of form without knowing why. You adopt a position intuitively; only later do you attempt to rationalize or even justify it.” Botero is an abstract artist in the most fundamental sense, choosing colors, shapes, and proportions based on intuitive aesthetic thinking. Though he spends only one month a year in Colombia, he considers himself the “most Colombian artist living” due to his insulation from the international trends of the art world. In 2004 Botero exhibited a series of 27 drawings and 23 paintings dealing
with the violence in Colombia from the drug cartels. He donated the works to the National Museum of Colombia, where they were first exhibited. In 2005 Botero gained considerable attention for his Abu Ghraib series, which was exhibited first in Europe. He based the works on reports of United States forces’ abuses of prisoners at Abu Ghraib prison during the Iraq War. Beginning with an idea he had on a plane journey, Botero produced more than 85 paintings and 100 drawings in exploring this conceptand “painting out the poison.” The series was exhibited at two United States locations in 2007, including Washington, DC. Botero said he would not sell any of the works, but would donate them to museums. In 2006, after having focused exclusively on the Abu Ghraib series for over 14 months, Botero returned to the themes of his early life such as the family and maternity. In his “Une Famille” Botero represented the Colombian family, a subject often painted in the seventies and eighties. In his “Maternity”, Botero repeated a composition he already painted in
2003, being able to evoke a sensuous velvety texture that lends it a special appeal and testifies for a personal involvement of the artist. Interestingly, the Child in the 2006 drawing has a wound in his right chest as if the Author wanted to identify him with Jesus Christ, thus giving it a religious meaning that was absent in the 2003 artwork. In 2008 he exhibited the works of his The Circus collection, featuring 20 works in oil and watercolor. In a 2010 interview, Botero said that he was ready for other subjects: “After all this, I always return to the simplest things: still lifes.”
Marriage and family Botero married Gloria Zea (who became the Colombian Minister of Culture). Together they had three children: Fernando (who was born while they lived in Mexico City), Lina and Juan Carlos Botero. The senior Boteros divorced in 1960 and each remarried. Starting in 1960, Botero lived for 14 years in New York, but more recently has settled in Paris. Lina also lives outside of Colombia, and in 2000 Juan Carlos moved to southern Florida. Fernando Botero Zea became a politician and served as Defense Minister.
He was convicted in 1996 of a financial offense and served 30 months in prison. Rather than facing a second charge and sentence in 2002, he is staying out of the country in Mexico, where he is a citizen of birth. Lina Botero became an actress and TV presenter. In 1964 Botero began living with Cecilia Zambrano. They had a son Pedro, born in 1974, and separated in 1975. Pedro was killed in 1979 in a car accident, in which Botero was also injured. Last Botero married the Greek artist Sophia Vari. They live most of the time in Paris and also have a house in Pietrasanta, Italy.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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New York Times Editorial How Many Deaths Are Enough? By BOB HERBERT
O
n April 22, 2008, almost exactly one year after 32 students and faculty members were slain in the massacre at Virginia Tech, the dealer who had sold one of the weapons used by the gunman delivered a public lecture on the school’s campus. His point: that people at Virginia Tech should be allowed to carry concealed weapons on campus. Eric Thompson, owner of the online firearms store that sold a .22-caliber semiautomatic handgun to the shooter, Seung-Hui Cho, did not think that his appearance at Virginia Tech was disrespectful or that his position was extreme. He felt so strongly that college students should be allowed to be armed while engaged in their campus activities that he offered discounts to any students who wanted to buy guns from him. Thompson spun the discounts as altruistic. He told ABCNews.com, “This offers students and people who might not have otherwise been able to afford a weapon to purchase one at a hefty discount and at a significant expense to myself.” The sale to Cho was not Thompson’s only unfortunate link to a mass killer. His firm sold a pair of 9-millimeter Glock maga-
zines and a holster to Steven Kazmierczak, a 27-year-old graduate student in DeKalb, Ill., who, on the afternoon of Feb. 14, 2008, went heavily armed into an auditorium-type lecture hall at Northern Illinois University. Kazmierczak walked onto the stage in front of a crowd of students and opened fire. He killed five people and wounded 18 others before killing himself. We’ve allowed the extremists to carry the day when it comes to guns in the United States, and it’s the dead and the wounded and their families who have had to pay the awful price. The idea of having large numbers of college students packing heat in their classrooms and at their parties and sporting events, or at the local pub or frat house or gymnasium, or wherever, is too stupid for words. Thompson did not get a warm welcome at Virginia Tech. A spokesman for the school, Larry Hincker, said the fact that he “would set foot on this campus” was “terribly offensive” and “incredibly insensitive to the families of the victims.” Just last week, a sophomore at Florida State University, Ashley Cowie, was shot to death accidentally by a 20-year-old student who, according to authorities, was showing off his rifle to a group of friends in
an off-campus apartment complex favored by fraternity members. A second student was shot in the wrist. This occurred as state legislators in Florida are considering a proposal to allow people with permits to carry concealed weapons on campuses. The National Rifle Association thinks that’s a dandy idea. The slaughter of college students — or anyone else — has never served as a deterrent to the gun fetishists. They want guns on campuses, in bars and taverns and churches, in parks and in the workplace, in cars and in the home. Ammunition everywhere — the deadlier, the better. A couple of years ago, a state legislator in Arizona, Karen Johnson, argued that adults needed to be able to carry guns in all schools, from elementary on up. “I feel like our kindergartners are sitting there like sitting ducks,” she said. Can we get a grip? The contention of those who would like college kids and just about everybody else to be armed to the teeth is that the good guys can shoot back whenever the bad guys show up to do harm. An important study published in 2009 by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine estimated that people in possession of a gun at the time of an assault were 4.5 times more
likely to be shot during the assault than someone in a comparable situation without a gun. “On average,” the researchers said, “guns did not seem to protect those who possessed them from being shot in an assault. Although successful defensive gun uses can and do occur, the findings of this study do not support the perception that such successes are likely.” Approximately 100,000 shootings occur in the United States every year. The number of people killed by guns should be enough to make our knees go weak. Monday was a national holiday celebrating the life of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. While the gun crazies are telling us that ever more Americans need to be walking around armed, we should keep in mind that more than a million people have died from gun violence — in murders, accidents and suicides — since Dr. King was shot to death in 1968. We need fewer homicides, fewer accidental deaths and fewer suicides. That means fewer guns. That means stricter licensing and registration, more vigorous background checks and a ban on assault weapons. Start with that. Don’t tell me it’s too hard to achieve. Just get started.
Me and My Algorithm By SETH FREEMAN
A
LGORITHMS, as you probably know, are the computer programs that infer from your profile (in the case of Facebook) and from the content of your e-mails (in the case of Gmail) your interests and preferences, enabling ads to be displayed to the customers most likely to be interested in specific products. This feature is prized by advertisers and accounts for the multibillion-dollar value of the most successful Web networks. The algorithms are programmed, I believe, to get to know us better over time, and rather than resent the invasion of pri-
vacy I have come to feel a grudging respect for, and even a growing sense of intimacy with, my own personal algorithm. You have to admire, for example, the inventive audacity of a program that would read an e-mail someone sent me about “Holocaust deniers” and think that I might be shopping for a Holistic Dentist. And when I conceded in an e-mail that something “was cheeky of me ...” I found it rather endearing that the algorithm tried to sell me a New Razor from Gillette ®. I had a similar reaction when a reference to the fine actor Christopher Plummer produced: Get a Plumbing Quote Now. Find a local Plumber.
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Of course, these slightly off-base pitches have a certain logic that is easy to discern, revealing, more than anything else, the program’s digital dyslexia. The algorithm seemed more insightful when the board of a nonprofit foundation on which I serve began discussing the possibilities for their first-ever fund-raising event in an exchange of thoughtful and creative e-mails and, from its depths of knowledge and experience, the program offered: “Beverly Hills Psychologist: Dr. Ryan specializes in types of self-destructive behavior.” You have to appreciate an algorithm that has your back. I sometimes find myself wondering what the algorithm knows that I don’t. This was particularly true, and disconcerting, when a recent e-mail about earthquake coverage for my home, several miles inland from the ocean in California, prompted an ad for Clearance Swimwear. Or what deep insights, it would be fascinating to learn, inspired an ad for Maria Sharapova Photo — Get Incredible Bargains on Maria Sharapova Photo from a reference to former Secretary of State Warren Christopher? I know Mr. Christopher negotiated with the Russians, but does the algorithm have inside information about the diplomat’s friskier side and a relationship to the beautiful tennis
player that was missed by “Entertainment Tonight” — and by everybody else who knows him? An e-mail about a performance of Shakespeare’s “Much Ado About Nothing” had three ads for Cadillacs along the side. What’s that about? I was also offered Baseball Swing Trainers — not a sport I play. I was pitched a chance for the 2010 CuteKid of the Year — Do you have a CuteKid? Cutest Baby takes home $25,000 — although my daughter is in her 20s. And while they are not something I wear, I could have gotten a good deal on Personalized Kippots, which are yarmulkes, and it did occur to me that it might be cool to have one with the Nike swoosh. If this is a case of my algorithm, my cyber personal shopper, coach, guardian angel and avatar, knowing me better than I know myself, I really do need to figure out why I, a guy, get repeated offers — tied to a e-mails on vastly different subjects — for mastectomy bras and for something called a vaginal ring. Is the idea that these items make lovely gifts? Since articles I have written have circulated through the Internet by e-mail, it could easily turn out that my algorithm will soon get the opportunity to read what I have had to say about it here. What, I wonder, will it think?
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The San Juan Weeekly
LETTERS Pushing Suicide To Carmen Román Torres - Substance Abuse and Mental Health and Anti-addiction Administrator (whew!): Inter News Service reports that you urge “the public to use the First Psicological [sic] Aid hotline in times of severe distress in order to avoid suicides.” I don’t think so. Nothing is as depressing as dealing with Commonwealth Government bureacracy and that’s written over all your titles and cliché after cliché in the article. Does one of your phone computers answer? Is the caller put on hold till kingdom come? Then asked to write down a long list of phones that never answer, are always busy, or all you get is a whistling sound? Or a drug company hawking the lastest drugstore dope? What’s best to prevent suicide is what you don’t mention. A happy life. And how can one have that in Puerto Rico with its uncaring government, indolent agencies and their never-ending labyrinth to nowhere. If you were poor, once you had a chance to made it to middle classer. But as the penepeístas privatize the University of Puerto Rico and some shark mainland corporation grabs hold of it and prices it just right for the scions of the beautiful people and nobody else, that and the public schools, and no libraries, then, well, what does one live for here? Ana Montes, Las Lomas
Demise of Predatory Medicine To Dr. Germán Malaret: You write, “No one has a right to health care... health is a responsibility, not a right.” Translation: We have no choice but to pay health merchants whatever because it’s our very lives you threaten us with. Your days of unconscionably accumulated wealth are numbered. Carrutha Harris, Puerta de Tierra
Tyranny on U.S. Soil Thanks to Uncle Sam, the Commonwealth Government can’t black out TV coverage, though the penepeistas are dying to do it. At Capitolio we saw a policeman sneak behind a man sitting in the hallway and without warning pepper-sprayed him point blanc into the eyes and then the fellow writhing in pain all over the floor. And riot squaders kneeling on the chests of students, who looked like shrimps beneath them. and then viciously electrifying them with tasers and kicks to the groin again and again. Saturday Channel 4 reran footage of the 1981 UPR strike. It clearly showed police assaulting passersby without provocation, moving on a woman from behind and beating her on the shoulder,
then the same thing to a man, I mean, like before, I couldn’t believe my eyes. Only time anything close happened in the United States was the 1968 Chicago Democratic Party Convention, and people weren’t hit from behind nor were women attacked. Mayor Daley was censured nationwide and pundits intimated Nixon might’ve won because the nation was indignant this happened under the Democrats’ noses and they did nothing to halt it. I think it’s the duty of us gringos living here to e-mail members of Congress and desabuse them of any notion that we practice democracy here, hell, many of them surely can’t even find Puerto Rico on a map. The Stars n’ Stripes were meant to fly over freedom, not barbary. Andy Tyler, Condado
The Young & the Despot Thomas Jefferson said that when tyranny happens citizens have not only the right but the obligation to make things right by whatever means. Shortly thereafter his words were echoing in Paris and heads were literally biting the dust there, if you believe Descartes. Then Karl Marx came along. And Lenin and El Che. And Ho Chi Minh. Different voices, the same truths. Now we’ve got an unprincipled bully in Fortaleza. Serviced by scurrilous thugs. What to do? Do we procure weapons and drench our streets with the blood of our oppressors mingled with our own? Not quite. I left one name for last. Mohandas Ghandi. He tells how to do it without getting hurt much. Which doesn’t obviate sacrifice, lots of it. But bloodshed is minimized. So read up and go for it. In particular the UPR kids, who conserve the vigor and purity of spirit we geezers have exhausted by now. Youth need not be wasted on the young, as Oscar Wilde put it. Agustín Manzano , Santurce
Little Führer Fortuño Do you watch the Mexican soaps? They’re all about the lives of outrageous luxury of the wealthy and how they mercilessly step on the helpless poor. Why the insistent theme? Because that’s what Mexico is like. And what the penepeístas are turning Puerto Rico into. First the mass firings with no attempt to re-employ the victims of the purge. To raise unemployment to bring wages down. Then the taking over of the Supreme Court by packing it with penepeístas to bypass judicial review, to dismantle Commonwealth democracy. Now the gentrification of the University of Puerto Rico, to do away with the troublesome middle class. What’s next? Making all big business into
virtual monopolies, as they’ve done already with banking, institutions other than Banco Popular are token leftovers, so don’t wonder why local bank practices get meaner and meaner. Then emasculating labor unions by repealing protective legislation and replacing it with the opposite. Read The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich by William Shirer. Through the early 30s the Nazis were contriving a lot of the stuff Fortuño et al. are now doing here. Only Hitler wanted to conquer and oppress others, not his own people. Nina Fotze, San Juan
Tough Oyster My friends always had something to say about her Audi. It was the most expensive model. The 2000 or the 4000, I really don’t remember. It was impervious to speed bumps, I didn’t bother to slow down for them, she always insisted that I drive. I’ll call her Pilar. Her affluence was her husband, a doctor, from whom she’d just gotten divorced. She came to me for tutoring in English as a second language -what I do for a living. But she wasn’t interested in studying and doing homework. I started out as her psychiatrist and then came smooching and dating and the sack. She was somewhat homely, bordering on the hysterical at times and her breasts weren’t that great. The best I could get at the time. What I’m telling you about took place in early 1988. Pilar, a Spaniard, had met her doc, a Puerto Rican, in Spain, where he went to med school. Since then he had slowly but surely become an alcoholic. And had developed a very foul mouth as of late, she claimed. Their daughter was a lively 13-year-old who must have become quite a dish eventually. That Tuesday night was Pilar’s birthday. From my balcony, I was living a block from the beach, I saw the green Audi coming in, looking brown under the street lights. I kissed her, tasting the lipstick, and got behind the wheel. I could rejoice that we wouldn’t be going to that bad movie she wanted to see, she said. We’d been invited for dinner to her friends’ house. I was grateful and I mused that Reagan and Gorbachev should’ve disposed of those excess ICBMs by dropping them on Hollywood. Her friend was a Spaniard girl who was married to an American guy like me. “Also,” she almost said out of force of habit. We’d make the perfect foursome, was the implication. They lived in Cupey, what you could call the suburbs. And a large home well above my station. “He’s a doctor,” Pilar said and rang the doorbell that sounded from well within. The inside had the bleakness of a habitation devoted to transients. I seem to remember they were childless, but that could be wrong. She was in her thirties, like Pilar and yours truly, and he apparently in his late fifties. As the living room was furnitureless we all settled into a small table in the kitchen, which was small too because Puerto Rican kitchens are not meant to double as dining rooms. The fellow shook my hand, he had large hands, surely he wasn’t a surgeon. His wife handed out the cold bottles of Budweiser as she
The San Juan Weeekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
21
LETTERS and Pilar chattered on, her Madrid lisp conspicuous. “I trust you like Beethoven,” he said and went back to the living room where he uncovered a large reel-to-reel deck and clicked the knob to PLAY. Tape hiss preceded the music and I noticed the large boxy speakers, almost ceiling-high, one in the living room and the other in the empty dining room on the other side of the kitchen, the sound reaching us mostly reflected. “Coming up, all nine symphonies by Furtwängler. Nobody conducts Beethoven like he did,” he added as he got into his seat. To me the definitive Beethoven Nine were the Roger Norringtons, on period instruments, even period phrasing. Furtwängler was a relic. Like Nat King Cole and Sarah Vaughn. At least Karajan’s Beethovens had been done in the age of high fidelity. Generation gap? No, he wasn’t going to get a CD player anytime soon. He had hundreds of tapes. And it was true that before CDs reel-to-reels were top banana. I told him I’d been the digital pioneer among my friends and about my new subwoofer that had cost a pretty penny but went all the way down to 20 hertz. And the Furtwängler didn’t sound as metallic and creaky as CDs of stuff that’s really old do -never listen to Edith Piaf on one- it seems the old gear he had softened the edges, filtering out the higher frequencies among other things. Because the doctor’s wife and myself were the only ones who were bilingual (despite my best efforts with Pilar), we couldn’t converse as a group. The first aluminum tray set on the gray formica table, that reminded me of the one in our kitchen in New York City when I was six, was the oysters, slightly steaming, ovened in their open shells. Then followed the potato salad with peas and covered completely with thin tomato slices. “So what brought you to Puerto Rico ?” I asked the doctor as Pilar took off the heavy gloves she’d used to bring the hot tray over and sat down next to me. He lifted his arm to excuse himself while he went to the living room to flip the reels to get to the Eroica. I then noticed he was a tall man, close to seven feet must’ve been. He was dressed in baggy shorts and a loose unbuttoned shirt. “I’m an epidemiologist from Atlanta CDC, sent to evaluate the AIDS situation here. I’m at the Centro Médico,” he said in a flat voice. We were watching the girls for our cue as to when to touch the shells. Wow! I thought. This was certainly going to be an interesting evening. How many Ebolas and other bugs had this guy trekked all over the globe after? “Bueno ¿no tenéis hambre? Well, aren’t you hungry?” his wife intoned, Pilar filling up her plate fast. I picked two clams, each dark-greenish thing inside shriveled like a raisin and waiting like a bride on a wedding bed, the shells were warm. “Yours must really be an interesting job,” I said wondering what would be the best approach to goad him into storytelling and as Pilar filled our styrofoam plates with the tomatoed potato salad. “Right now, I’m disgusted with it,” came the reply. I opened my eyes wide. How could that be? But then I was distracted by the oyster -I couldn’t eat it. The taste, that had been good, had dissolved away and now it was a small rubber ball in my mouth that my molars couldn’t grind. “Well, I’m not allowed to do what I was brought
here for,” he went on. I locked my molars harder and ground sideways to rip the little bastard. “You see, in Puerto Rico , AIDS is a heterosexual epidemic.” This made me forget the oyster. I’d never heard such a thing. Wasn’t AIDS the gay scourge? There hadn’t been a hint of anything else in Time or Discover. Just a few weeks earlier near the gay neighborhood on Ashford -my favorite Chinese restaurant was there- some teenage girls in an automobile were teasing a gay walking by. “¿Tú tienes AIDS? Do you have AIDS?” they said to him. In 1988 no one yet used the Spanish acronym SIDA. Nobody seemed to be having the difficulty I was having with the oyster -a mystery that will haunt me till the end of my days. But I was finally making headway with it and was able to swallow the half that was left. “There’s nothing inherently homosexual about AIDS. It was just a happenstance that it propagated on that side of the fence, so to speak,” he said, my mind following every word. “Except in Africa , where it was born, and in Haiti . And here. It entered Puerto Rico mostly with the I.V. druggies -the shared needles.” I started on the second oyster. To my horror, it turned out harder than the first one. I thanked the gods that Pilar, pushy as she was, hadn’t added more clams to the two I’d taken. “And why are you disgusted?” I asked my new friend, as the flourishes meant to make Napoleon happy reverberated through the house. “The homosexual community, where AIDS has lodged in the U.S. and Europe is, by definition, a sexually isolated population. Which means a venereal disease takes a long time to break out significantly into the population at large. Decades, could even run the better part of a century, time enough to wear itself out by the usual mechanisms or for a vaccine or even an effective treatment to see the light of day.” This was too interesting for an oyster to ruin. I wished I knew these people better so I could just stand up, walk to the garbage pail and spit it out. Nevertheless I wasn’t without recourse. When the girls burst into laughter owing to some gossip the doctor and I weren’t privy to, I slipped the oyster into my left hand and from there into the left pocket of my jeans. He now got to the point, “In Puerto Rico, because AIDS is heterosexual, it’s going to spread explosively if nothing’s done. We’re talking up to 40,000 cases by the turn of the century.” He saw the astonishment on my face and added, “It’s my job to presume the worst scenario.” I then looked at Pilar and the doctor’s wife, who were munching oyster after oyster like they were pretzels. There must be a trick to it, I speculated, though I couldn’t imagine what it might be. “So I recommended two things,” he said. “First, ask the President to declare a medical emergency here. To get emergency federal funds. You can’t get emergency funds if you don’t declare an emergency. Second, that a massive campaign urging the use of condoms be implemented, targeting teens in particular. This is all the more important in Puerto Rico because of the low educational level.” But he hadn’t yet told me why he was disgusted, I looked at him quizzically, he was reluctant but went on, “Everything here is politics, it seems. The
Secretary of Health said this is an election year and the Governor’s running for reelection. And you can’t declare an emergency in an election year. You can’t declare an emergency six months before an election.” In Puerto Rico elections for everything elected take place together every four years. My grandmother, who was a Spaniard as well, ate the critters raw, it looked like a dripping glob of phlegm when she pulled one up with her fingers. Then she’d raise her chin and with her old lady’s lips suck it into her mouth. Mario’s Seafood, I was eight. The enormity of what this man had just said hit me. This was not the hearsay gossip one hears so often, repeats and discounts. This was straight from the horse’s mouth. GOVERNMENT LETS THOUSANDS DIE TO ASSURE REELECTION, I imagined the headline. That was what it amounted to, wasn’t it? I felt like I was in a dream. In the john I took the oyster out of my pocket and plopped it into the water in the toilet before I opened my fly. It was a relief to piss on it. That’s what you get for giving me such a hard time, Oyster. “And on top of that, you can’t offend the Archbishop,” he went on, saying the name that I recognized because the character was quite outspoken. “Condoms are a no-no.” The doctor rubbed his hands as if trying to warm them, the Fifth was playing. His wife eventually said to us, “It seems you fellows didn’t like my clams,” and to me, “Ernest, you had only two.” I assured her the oysters had been delicious and that I had had more than two but had returned the shells to the tray. Pilar pointed out that I was buen diente, a good tooth, which means adventurous gastronomically. We said good night at the conclusion of the Pastorale. Pilar had to get up early the next day to take her daughter to some school field trip. As I drove, Pilar’s head on my shoulder, we listened to Belinda Carlisle singing Heaven Is a Place on Earth on the radio and I thought about Fidel Castro. He rationed everything in Cuba and put dissidents in jail. Even Adolf Hitler. Would der Führer have looked the other way while an epidemic ravaged the German people? Tough oyster. The Governor was reelected, for the last time. Six months after that he announced a condom campaign in the public schools. That very evening the Archbishop spoke over the media. He said, succinctly enough, that as a Catholic, the Governor knew condoms are not allowed for any purpose. Around that time Scientific American devoted a whole issue to AIDS. Which confirmed everything the doctor had told me. The world map they ran used red for heterosexual AIDS and darker shades for higher incidence. And yes, sub-Saharan Africa, Haiti and Puerto Rico were the deepest burgundy, among the mostly soft blues of North America and Europe and the clean white (at the time) of the Middle East, all of Asia and Central and South America . Mercifully, there weren’t 40,000 infected or dead in Puerto Rico by 2000. “Only” 25,000 perished as of this year. AIDS is mentioned offhandishly by the gossip/bickering-oriented local media and they quote the inconsistent data provided by the various bureaucrats, never checking sources. Jackson Winters, Isla Verde
Kitchen
22
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
The San Juan Weekly
A Cauliflower Bouquet By MELISSA CLARK
I
like to dress my salad up in warming layers of cheese, meat, nuts, olives, capers, roasted vegetables and assertive, bitter greens. I add them in whatever combination I’m in the mood for (or have on hand), keeping the salad-making technique the same. Step 1. Crank up the oven. This is generally a good rule when cooking most things because it heats up the kitchen (and the cook). Step 2. Rummage around in the refrigerator for a vegetable sturdy enough to roast, cut it in bite-size pieces, coat with oil and salt, and roast until soft. Step 3. Whisk together a vinaigrette in a big salad bowl, and toss in any extra tempting morsels lying around: pickles, spiced nuts or leftover roast chicken from last night’s dinner. Oh, and if you have some salad greens or herbs, you can add them now, too, though I consider greens in salads to be strictly optional. Then stir in your still-warm but not
piping-hot roasted vegetables, and dinner (or more likely lunch) is served. I’ve made this kind of salad with almost any vegetable that won’t wilt or burn when subjected to a copious slick of oil and a blast of high heat. Broccoli, brussels sprouts, beets, parsnips, sweet potatoes, winter squash and rutabagas all work well. But my favorite is cauliflower. I love the way the florets turn juicy and tender in the center while crisping and browning around the edges. And its mild flavor is amenable enough to pair nicely with almost anything else you toss into the bowl. The last time I roasted it, I added it to some watercress dressed with a sherry vinaigrette, and garnished the top with toasted walnuts and bits of creamy Gruyère. I thought about adding capers or anchovies or croutons, but in the end left well enough alone. It really didn’t need another thing. Which brings me to Step 4. Eat with gusto, and maybe you’ll be lucky enough to work up a sweat.
Roasted Cauliflower Salad With Watercress, Walnuts and Gruyère Time: 1 hour 1 head cauliflower, cut into bite-size florets 6 tablespoons extra virgin olive oil 1 1/2 teaspoons kosher salt 3/4 teaspoon pepper 1 tablespoon sherry vinegar 2 bunches watercress, large stems removed 1/4 pound Gruyère, diced or grated (about 1 cup) 2/3 cup toasted walnuts. 1. Heat the oven to 400 degrees. In
a bowl, toss together the cauliflower, 2 tablespoons olive oil, 1 teaspoon salt and 1/4 teaspoon pepper. Spread the cauliflower on a baking sheet in a single layer. Roast, tossing occasionally, until tender and dark golden, 30 to 35 minutes. Let cool for 10 minutes. 2. In a small bowl, whisk together the vinegar with the remaining salt and pepper, and then whisk in the remaining oil. 3. In a salad bowl, toss the watercress, cheese, nuts and warm cauliflower. Pour the vinaigrette over the salad and toss until well combined. Yield: 4 servings.
JJanuary Janu anuar ary y 27 27 - Feb. F Feb ebb. 2, 2, 2011 2 201 011 1
The San Juan Weekly
2233
Kitchen
Tastes Like Chicken By PETE WELLS
I
drove to the nearest decent butcher to buy beef for a classic French daube. Who could resist egg noodles topped with melting meat, carrots and onions? A 3-year-old, that’s who. When I filled his bowl with noodles, Elliot, my younger son, called out with joy, “P’sghetti!” And then, as I ladled on the stew, he rebelled. “No!” he cried. “I don’t want it! Yucky!” He carried on in this manner while I served the rest of the family. When we lifted our forks, Elliot, sensing that he wasn’t making the desired impression, cranked up the rhetoric: “Yucky food from a factory!” Sharper than a serpent’s tooth, all right. We eat real food in our house. But before I could disinherit him, his brother, Dexter, snapped back: “Look at this food, Elliot! Do you see anything artificial?” I’m not the first parent to sit at the dinner table and wonder, Where do they come up with this stuff? My wife and I are not reading the children bedtime stories out of “Fast Food Nation.” Dexter, who is 6, is getting particularly theological about eating. Recently he has made pronouncements on the nutritional merits of school-cafeteria lunch and the sandwiches my
wife packs him each morning, and on the evils of chain-restaurant French ch h fries. Somewhere on his route from m home to school to play dates and back ck again, he’s picking up secondhand no nootions about the food supply. He doesn’t wander alone across osss the wilds of the Internet yet, so he can’t n’tt have come across a video of the English sh chef-crusader Jamie Oliver trying to o turn school kids against chicken nugg-gets. It’s a fascinating document of our ur times, a clip from an early episode of “Jamie Oliver’s Food Revolution.” Oliliver rode to save the townspeople from m their own renegade appetites. One of his first acts was to gather some stuudents from the local elementary school ool and, he said, “show them one of the he most disgusting ingredients in some of the worst processed foods.” The prime example is the chicken nugget, and the disgusting ingredient is what the poultry trade calls “mechanically separated chicken.” Oliver makes his version by grinding a chicken carcass in one of those food processors that can crush rocks. Then he adds chicken skin and forces the pulp through a sieve. At this point, he holds the pink mush up in the kids’ faces to watch them squirm. Next, he shakes on powders to flavor and bind it, “because this has got loads of connective tis-
Bowl Fried Chicken By PETE WELLS Vegetable oil, for frying 4 large egg whites ½ cup matzo meal, or matzo crackers crushed with a rolling pin ½ cup all-purpose flour 1 medium chicken (about 3 pounds), cut into eight pieces (2 legs, 2 thighs, 4 breast pieces; save wings for stock) Fine sea salt and freshly ground black and white pepper 1 teaspoon Cajun seasoning (recipe follows) Honey, for serving.
3. Carefully lower the chicken thighs and drumsticks into the oil. After 3 minutes, carefully add the breast pieces. (Keep the oil at 375 by adjusting heat as necessary.) Fry until dark gold, about 10 minutes more. Transfer the fried chicken to a paper-towel-lined plate. Sprinkle immediately with salt and pepper, then coat the pieces with the Cajun seasoning. Serve the chicken with honey, for dipping. Serves 4.
Cajun Seasoning By PETE WELLS
1. Fill a large pot with oil to a depth of about 3 inches. Heat the oil over medium-high heat until a deep-fat thermometer reads 375 degrees. 2. Meanwhile, whisk the egg whites in a large, shallow bowl. In a separate shallow bowl, combine the matzo meal and flour. Keeping the dark meat and the white separate, dip each chicken piece in egg white and let excess drip back into the bowl. Then roll each chicken piece in the matzo mix, and tap off excess.
¼ cup kosher salt ¼ cup paprika 1 tablespoon fine sea salt 1 tablespoon freshly ground black pepper 1 teaspoon garlic powder ½ teaspoon onion powder ½ teaspoon sugar Combine all ingredients and store in a covered container. Makes about ¾ cup.
sue and things that aren’t really meat, to be honest.” He cuts out circles of this chickenish substance, dusts them with bread crumbs and fries them into golden cakes. “Now who would still eat this?” Oliver asks the boys and girls. They raise their hands, down to the last child. Oliver seems to find this way more depressing than I do. To him, it’s proof that children have been “brainwashed.” But to me, it shows that some kids are smart enough to get past the “ewwww” reflex, and that means they have a decent shot at growing into sensible, mature eaters. The pink mush, after all, looked just like what comes out of my food processor when I make chicken meatballs or sausages. Of course, I don’t start with a whole chicken carcass, largely because pushing mashed chicken through a sieve by hand to strain out ground bones is not my idea of fun. But many, many foods that look absolutely disgusting at some point in their creation taste absolutely wonderful by the time they reach the table. Potentially, this could even be true of mechanically separated chicken, which, seen from a certain angle, is nothing more than an industrial form of nose-to-tail eating. Cooks have been fashioning soup from carcasses forever; why not meat patties? Which is not to say that when Dexter fell under the spell of the chicken nugget a couple of years ago, I smiled and passed the barbecue sauce. The house policy on the nugget is something like the policy on potty jokes: don’t laugh, but don’t let them see you flinch, either. So whenever I had the chance and the time, I served them chicken in a relatively un-messed-with form:
roast chicken; chicken cacciatore; grilled spatchcocked chicken; coq au vin (no, the kids didn’t get drunk); smoked whole chicken. Each time, Dexter nibbled at it halfheartedly. He said he didn’t care for “chicken on the bone.” And the next time he was in a restaurant or at a party where nuggets were in circulation, he avidly helped himself. For three years, I kept an eye on the nugget situation, clandestinely. The day he begins to refuse all other forms of nourishment, I will act. Until then, silence. Last month, I asked him about his favorite foods. It was a tie, he said, between sushi and fried chicken. I’ve eaten that chicken. It’s a specialty of restaurant Blue Ribbon and many of its offspring, including the bowling alley, where Dexter first encountered it at a birthday party. That chicken is famous. That chicken is crunchy. And, as long as you are not afraid of having a three-inch-deep lake of hot oil in your kitchen, it’s also preposterously simple to make at home. No three-day buttermilk bath, or lard seasoned with bacon; just a quick crust of egg whites and crumbs. You sprinkle it with a sort-of-Cajun spice mix and send it to the table with pots of honey, if you are a restaurant, or, if you are me, with a bear-shaped squeeze bottle. And soon both your children are tearing their way through that bizarre and distasteful item, chicken on the bone. Stripping the bones bare, in fact. And reaching for seconds. The spice mix comes together in two minutes, too. You just blend salt, pepper, sugar, paprika, onion powder and garlic powder. Those last two ingredients, in fact, come from a factory. But nobody in my family cared.
Kitchen
24
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
The San Juan Weekly
Spinach Salad With Persimmons, Goat Cheese and Walnuts
I
Soba Sails From Japan By MELISSA CLARK
M
Y food rut of 2010 was soba. I was complacent, preparing it the same way every time by tossing the slender buckwheat strands with broth, scallions and sesame oil and then throwing a piece of seared salmon on top. At the beginning of the year, it was time to break out. Just because soba originally comes from Japan doesn’t mean it needs to stay there. The springy, earthy noodles are an excellent base for other flavors. The first thing to go was the broth, since I wanted to create more of a soba
salad than a soup. To keep the noodles from sticking together and to add a peppery, herbal flavor, I coated them with the best extra virgin olive oil I had in the cupboard, along with some Meyer lemon juice and zest for brightness (and because I had a few of the lemons on hand) and garlic for bite. As for the salmon, I had planned to keep it in the mix. But at the fish store, another, paler pink fillet caught my eye: Arctic char. I wanted to repeat what I’d done the last time I cooked Arctic char: drizzled it with toasted whole cumin seeds steeped in olive oil, then roasted the fish until just
cooked through, succulent and moist. At this point my dish had not only left Japan, but was also wandering all over the map. I probably should have left well enough alone, but I’d traveled so far already that there was one more thing I wanted to try: crunch. I toasted some pine nuts, which are softer than other nuts, so they’d provide just a little something to challenge the teeth, but nothing too jarring. And I like the way they taste with cumin. When it was all done, the creamy pink fish and pale noodles both looked and tasted like the picture of culinary cohesion — a new dish for a new year.
Arctic Char With Soba Noodles, Pine Nuts and Meyer Lemon Time: 30 Minutes 6 ounces soba noodles 1/4 cup pine nuts 2 garlic cloves, minced 1 teaspoon kosher salt 1/4 teaspoon pepper, plus more for seasoning 1/2 teaspoon finely grated Meyer lemon zest 2 teaspoons fresh Meyer lemon juice 6 tablespoons extra virgin olive oil 1 tablespoon cumin seeds 4 Arctic char fillets, about 8 ounces each, preferably center-cut pieces, skin removed Meyer lemon wedges, for serving
Chopped fresh cilantro or mint, for serving. 1. Cook the noodles according to the package instructions. Rinse under cold water; drain well. 2. Pulse the pine nuts in a food processor until finely ground. Scrape them into a large bowl. Add the garlic, 1/2 teaspoon salt, pepper and lemon zest. Whisk in the lemon juice. Slowly whisk in 3 tablespoons oil. Toss noodles with the dressing. 3. Heat the oven to 450 degrees. Line a large baking sheet with foil. 4. Set a small skillet over medium-
high heat and allow to heat up, about 1 minute. Add the cumin seeds and sizzle until fragrant, about 30 seconds. Turn off the heat and add remaining oil. Allow to cool slightly. 5. Season both sides of the fish with remaining salt and a pinch of pepper and place on the baking sheet. Spoon the cumin and oil evenly over the fillets. Roast to desired doneness, about 10 minutes for medium rare. 6. Divide the noodles among four plates and place the fish over the noodles. Garnish with the lemon wedges and cilantro or mint. Yield: 4 servings.
was never crazy about persimmons until I made this salad with the crunchy Fuyu variety. I love the contrast of sweet persimmons with earthy spinach. 2 Fuyu persimmons 1/4 cup broken walnuts (1 1/2 ounces) 2 ounces goat cheese, crumbled (about 1/2 cup) 1 bag baby spinach 1 tablespoon plus 1 teaspoon fresh lime juice Salt to taste 3 tablespoons plus 1 teaspoon walnut oil Fleur de sel (optional) 1. Peel the persimmons, and cut in wedges; if there are any seeds at the core, cut away the cores. Combine with the walnuts, goat cheese and spinach in a salad bowl. 2. Whisk together the lime juice, salt and walnut oil. Toss with the spinach mixture, and serve, sprinkling a tiny amount of fleur de sel over each serving if desired. Yield: Serves four to six. Advance preparation: Don’t toss the salad until you’re ready to serve it, but you can assemble it and keep it in the refrigerator for a few hours. Nutritional information per serving (four servings): 290 calories; 22 grams fat; 5 grams saturated fat; 15 milligrams cholesterol; 20 grams carbohydrates; 5 grams dietary fiber; 106 milligrams sodium (does not include salt added during preparation); 8 grams protein Nutritional information per serving (six servings): 193 calories; 14 grams fat; 3 grams saturated fat; 10 milligrams cholesterol; 13 grams carbohydrates; 3 grams dietary fiber; 71 milligrams sodium (does not include salt added during preparation); 5 grams protein.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
25
Global Warming G
lobal warming has become perhaps the most complicated issue facing world leaders. On the one hand, warnings from the scientific community are becoming louder, as an increasing body of science points to rising dangers from the ongoing buildup of human-related greenhouse gases — produced mainly by the burning of fossil fuels and forests. On the other, the technological, economic and political issues that have to be resolved before a concerted worldwide effort to reduce emissions can begin have gotten no simpler, particularly in the face of a global economic slowdown. Global talks on climate change opened in Cancún, Mexico, in late 2010 with the toughest issues unresolved, and the conference produced modest agreements. But while the measures adopted in Cancún are likely to have scant near-term impact on the warming of the planet, the international process for dealing with the issue got a significant vote of confidence. The agreement fell well short of the broad changes scientists say are needed to avoid dangerous climate change in coming decades. But it laid the groundwork for stronger measures in the future, if nations are able to overcome the emotional arguments that have crippled climate change negotiations in recent years. The package, known as the Cancún Agreements, gives the more than 190 countries participating in the conference another year to decide whether to extend the frayed Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 agreement that requires most wealthy nations to trim their emissions while providing assistance to developing countries to pursue a cleaner energy future. At the heart of the international debate is a momentous tussle between rich and poor countries over who steps up first and who pays most for changed energy menus. In the United States, on Jan. 2, 2011, the Environmental Protection Agency imposed its first regulations related to greenhouse gas emissions. The immediate effect on uti-
lities, refiners and major manufacturers will be small, with the new rules applying only to those planning to build large new facilities or make major modifications to existing plants. Over the next decade, however, the agency plans to regulate virtually all sources of greenhouse gases, imposing efficiency and emissions requirements on nearly every industry and every region. President Obama vowed as a candidate that he would put the United States on a path to addressing climate change by reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas pollutants. He offered Congress wide latitude to pass climate change legislation, but held in reserve the threat of E.P.A. regulation if it failed to act. The deeply polarized Senate’s refusal to enact climate change legislation essentially called his bluff. But working through the E.P.A. has guaranteed a clash between the administration and Republicans that carries substantial risks for both sides. The administration is on notice that if it moves too far and too fast in trying to curtail the ubiquitous gases that are heating the planet it risks a Congressional backlash that could set back the effort for years. But the newly muscular Republicans in Congress could also stumble by moving too aggressively to handcuff the Environmental Protection Agency, provoking a popular outcry that they are endangering public health in the service of their well-heeled patrons in industry.
Global Talks
The United States entered the Cancún conference in 2010 in a weak position because of continuing disputes with China and other major developing nations over verification of emissions reductions, and its lack of action on domestic climate and energy legislation. Democratic leaders in the Senate in July 2010 gave up on reaching even a scaled-down climate bill, in the face of opposition from Republicans and some energy-state Democrats. The House had
passed a broad cap-and-trade bill in 2009. The Cancún conference ended in December 2010, with only modest achievements. The conference approved a package of agreements that sets up a new fund to help poor countries adapt to climate changes, creates new mechanisms for transfer of clean energy technology, provides compensation for the preservation of tropical forests and strengthens the emissions reductions pledges that came out of the last United Nations climate change meeting in Copenhagen in 2009. The conference approved the agreement over the objections of Bolivia, which condemned the pact as too weak. But those protests did not block its acceptance. Delegates from island states and the least-developed countries warmly welcomed the pact because it would start the flow of billions of dollars to assist them to adopt cleaner energy systems and adapt to inevitable changes in the climate, like sea rise and drought. But the conference left unresolved where the $100 billion in annual climaterelated aid that the wealthy nations have promised to provide would come from. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, under whose auspices these annual talks are held, operates on the principle of consensus, meaning that any of the more than 190 participating nations can hold up an agreement.
Background
Scientists learned long ago that the earth’s climate has powerfully shaped the history of the human species — biologically, culturally and geographically. But only in the last few decades has research revealed that humans can be a powerful influence on the climate as well. A growing body of scientific evidence indicates that since 1950, the world’s climate has been warming, primarily as a result of emissions from unfettered burning of fossil fuels and the razing of tropical forests. Such activity adds to the atmosphere’s invisible blanket of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping “greenhouse” gases. Recent research has shown that methane, which flows from landfills, livestock and oil and gas facilities, is a close second to carbon dioxide in impact on the atmosphere. That conclusion has emerged through a broad body of analysis in fields as disparate as glaciology, the study of glacial formations, and palynology, the study of the distribution of pollen grains in lake mud. It is based on a host of assessments by the world’s leading organizations of climate and earth scientists. In the last several years, the scientific case that the rising human influence on climate could become disruptive has become particularly robust.
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Comes from page 25 Some fluctuations in the Earth’s temperature are inevitable regardless of human activity — because of decades-long ocean cycles, for example. But centuries of rising temperatures and seas lie ahead if the release of emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation continues unabated, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The panel shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President Al Gore for alerting the world to warming’s risks. Despite the scientific consensus on these basic conclusions, enormously important details remain murky. That reality has been seized upon by some groups and scientists disputing the overall consensus and opposing changes in energy policies. For example, estimates of the amount of warming that would result from a doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations (compared to the level just before the Industrial Revolution got under way in the early 19th century) range from 3.6 degrees to 8 degrees Fahrenheit. The intergovernmental climate panel said it could not rule out even higher temperatures. While the low end could probably be tolerated, the high end would almost certainly result in calamitous, long-lasting disruptions of ecosystems and economies, a host of studies have concluded. A wide range of economists and earth scientists say that level of risk justifies an
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
aggressive response. Other questions have persisted despite a century-long accumulation of studies pointing to human-driven warming. The rate and extent at which sea levels will rise in this century as ice sheets erode remains highly uncertain, even as the long-term forecast of centuries of retreating shorelines remains intact. Scientists are struggling more than ever to disentangle how the heat building in the seas and atmosphere will affect the strength and number of tropical cyclones. The latest science suggests there will be more hurricanes and typhoons that reach the most dangerous categories of intensity, but fewer storms over all. Government figures for the global climate show that 2010 was the wettest year in the historical record, and it tied 2005 as the hottest year since record-keeping began in 1880.
Steps Toward a Response
The debate over climate questions pales next to the fight over what to do, or not do, in a world where fossil fuels still underpin both rich and emerging economies. With the completion of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Earth Summit in 1992, the world’s nations pledged to avoid dangerously disrupting the climate through the buildup of greenhouse gases, but they never defined how much warming was too much.
Nonetheless, recognizing that the original climate treaty was proving ineffective, all of the world’s industrialized countries except for the United States accepted binding restrictions on their greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, which was negotiated in Japan in 1997. That accord took effect in 2005 and its gas restrictions expire in 2012. The United States signed the treaty, but it was never submitted for ratification, in the face of overwhelming opposition in the Senate because the pact required no steps by China or other fast-growing developing countries. It took until 2009 for the leaders of the world’s largest economic powers to agree on a dangerous climate threshold: an increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from the average global temperature recorded just before the Industrial Revolution kicked into gear. (This translates into an increase of 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit above the Earth’s current average temperature, about 59 degrees). The Group of 8 industrial powers also agreed that year to a goal of reducing global emissions 50 percent by 2050, with the richest countries leading the way by cutting their emissions 80 percent. But they did not set a baseline from which to measure that reduction, and so far firm interim targets — which many climate scientists say would be more meaningful — have not been defined. At the same time, fast-growing emer-
The San Juan Weekly
ging economic powerhouses, led by China and India, still oppose taking on mandatory obligations to curb their emissions. They say they will do what they can to rein in growth in emissions — as long as their economies do not suffer. The world’s poorest countries, in the meantime, are seeking payments to help make them less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, given that the buildup in climate-warming gases so far has come mainly from richer nations. Such aid has been promised since the 1992 treaty and a fund was set up under the Kyoto Protocol. But while tens of billions of dollars are said to be needed, only millions have flowed so far. In many ways, the debate over global climate policy is a result of a global “climate divide.’’ Emissions of carbon dioxide per person range from less than 2 tons per year in India, where 400 million people lack access to electricity, to more than 20 in the United States. The richest countries are also best able to use wealth and technology to insulate themselves from climate hazards, while the poorest, which have done the least to cause the problem, are the most exposed. In the meantime, a recent dip in emissions caused by the global economic slowdown is almost certain to be followed by a rise, scientists warn, and with population and appetites for energy projected to rise through mid-century, they say the entwined challenges of climate and energy will only intensify.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
27
Universe
Darkness on the Edge of the Universe
By BRIAN GREENE
I
N a great many fields, researchers would give their eyeteeth to have a direct glimpse of the past. Instead, they generally have to piece together remote conditions using remnants like weathered fossils, decaying parchments or mummified remains. Cosmology, the study of the origin and evolution of the universe, is different. It is the one arena in which we can actually witness history. The pinpoints of starlight we see with the naked eye are photons that have been streaming toward us for a few years or a few thousand. The light from more distant objects, captured by powerful telescopes, has been traveling toward us far longer than that, sometimes for billions of years. When we look at such ancient light, we are seeing — literally — ancient times. During the past decade, as observations of such ancient starlight have provided deep insight into the universe’s past, they have also, surprisingly, provided deep insight into the nature of the future. And the future that the data suggest is particularly disquieting — because of something called dark energy. This story of discovery begins a century ago with Albert Einstein, who realized that space is not an immutable stage on which events play out, as Isaac Newton had envisioned. Instead, through his general theory of relativity, Einstein found that space, and time too, can bend, twist and warp, responding much as a trampoline does to a jumping child. In fact, so malleable is space that, according to the math, the size of the universe necessarily changes over time: the fabric of space must expand or contract — it can’t stay put. For Einstein, this was an unacceptable conclusion. He’d spent 10 grueling years developing the general theory of relativity, seeking a better understanding of gravity, but to him the notion of an expanding or contracting cosmos seemed blatantly erroneous. It flew in the face of the prevailing wisdom that, over the largest of scales, the universe was fixed and unchanging. Einstein responded swiftly. He modified the equations of general relativity so that the mathematics would yield an unchanging cosmos. A static situation, like a stalemate in a tug of war, requires equal but opposite
forces that cancel each other. Across large distances, the force that shapes the cosmos is the attractive pull of gravity. And so, Einstein reasoned, a counterbalancing force would need to provide a repulsive push. But what force could that be? Remarkably, he found that a simple modification of general relativity’s equations entailed something that would have, well, blown Newton’s mind: antigravity — a gravitational force that pushes instead of pulls. Ordinary matter, like the Earth or Sun, can generate only attractive gravity, but the math revealed that a more exotic source — an energy that uniformly fills space, much as steam fills a sauna, only invisibly — would generate gravity’s repulsive version. Einstein called this space-filling energy the cosmological constant, and he found that by finely adjusting its value, the repulsive gravity it produced would precisely cancel the usual attractive gravity coming from stars and galaxies, yielding a static cosmos. He breathed a sigh of relief. A dozen years later, however, Einstein rued the day he introduced the cosmological constant. In 1929, the American astronomer Edwin Hubble discovered that distant galaxies are all rushing away from us. And the best explanation for this cosmic exodus came directly from general relativity: much as poppy seeds in a muffin that’s baking move apart as the dough swells, galaxies move apart as the space in which they’re embedded expands. Hubble’s observations thus established that there was no need for a cosmological constant; the universe is not static. Had Einstein only trusted the original mathematics of general relativity, he would have made one of the most spectacular predictions of all time — that the universe is expanding — more than a decade before it was discovered. Instead, he was left to lick his wounds, summarily removing the cosmological constant from the equations of general relativity and, according to one of his trusted colleagues, calling it his greatest blunder. But the story of the cosmological constant was far from over. Fast forward to the 1990s, when we find two teams of astronomers undertaking painstakingly precise observations of distant supernovae — exploding stars so brilliant they can be seen clear across the cosmos — to determine how the expansion rate of space has changed over the history of the universe. These researchers anticipated that the gravitational attraction of matter dotting the night’s sky would slow the expansion, much as Earth’s gravity slows the speed of a ball tossed upward. By bearing witness to distant supernovae, cosmic beacons that trace the universe’s expansion rate at various moments in the past, the teams sought to make this quantitative. Shockingly, however, when the data were analyzed, the teams found that the expansion rate has not been slowing down. It’s been speeding up. It’s as if that tossed ball shot away from your hand, racing upward faster and faster. You’d conclude that something must be driving the ball away. Similarly, the astronomers concluded that something in space must be pushing galaxies apart ever more quickly. And after scrutinizing the situation, they have found that the push is most likely the repulsive gravity produced by a cosmological constant. When Einstein introduced the cosmological constant, he envisioned its value being finely adjusted to exactly balance ordinary attractive gravity. But for other values the cosmological constant’s repulsive gravity can
beat out attractive gravity, and yield the observed accelerated spatial expansion, spot on. Were Einstein still with us, his discovery that repulsive gravity lies within nature’s repertoire would have likely garnered him another Nobel prize. As remarkable as it is that even one of Einstein’s “bad” ideas has proven prophetic, many puzzles still surround the cosmological constant: If there is a diffuse, invisible energy permeating space, where did it come from? Is this dark energy (to use modern parlance) a permanent fixture of space, or might its strength change over time? Perhaps most perplexing of all is a question of quantitative detail. The most refined attempts to calculate the amount of dark energy suffusing space miss the measured value by a gargantuan factor of 10123 (that is, a 1 followed by 123 zeroes) — the single greatest mismatch between theory and observation in the history of science. THESE are vital questions that rank among today’s deepest mysteries. But standing beside them is an unassailable conclusion, one that’s particularly unnerving. If the dark energy doesn’t degrade over time, then the accelerated expansion of space will continue unabated, dragging away distant galaxies ever farther and ever faster. A hundred billion years from now, any galaxy that’s not resident in our neighborhood will have been swept away by swelling space for so long that it will be racing from us at faster than the speed of light. (Although nothing can move through space faster than the speed of light, there’s no limit on how fast space itself can expand.) Light emitted by such galaxies will therefore fight a losing battle to traverse the rapidly widening gulf that separates us. The light will never reach Earth and so the galaxies will slip permanently beyond our capacity to see, regardless of how powerful our telescopes may become. Because of this, when future astronomers look to the sky, they will no longer witness the past. The past will have drifted beyond the cliffs of space. Observations will reveal nothing but an endless stretch of inky black stillness. If astronomers in the far future have records handed down from our era, attesting to an expanding cosmos filled with galaxies, they will face a peculiar choice: Should they believe “primitive” knowledge that speaks of a cosmos very much at odds with what anyone has seen for billions and billions of years? Or should they focus on their own observations and valiantly seek explanations for an island universe containing a small cluster of galaxies floating within an unchanging sea of darkness — a conception of the cosmos that we know definitively to be wrong? And what if future astronomers have no such records, perhaps because on their planet scientific acumen developed long after the deep night sky faded to black? For them, the notion of an expanding universe teeming with galaxies would be a wholly theoretical construct, bereft of empirical evidence. We’ve grown accustomed to the idea that with sufficient hard work and dedication, there’s no barrier to how fully we can both grasp reality and confirm our understanding. But by gazing far into space we’ve captured a handful of starkly informative photons, a cosmic telegram billions of years in transit. And the message, echoing across the ages, is clear. Sometimes nature guards her secrets with the unbreakable grip of physical law. Sometimes the true nature of reality beckons from just beyond the horizon.
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January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
San Juan Weekly
Single, Female, Alone By NICOLE HARDY
O
F all the places I felt sure I’d never go, Planned Parenthood topped the list. Because, you know, they perform abortions and give condoms to kids, or so I’d been warned. Yet one spring afternoon found me in its waiting room next to a teenage girl, who was clearly perplexed by the intake form and likely bound for an uncomfortable, humiliating four minutes in the back of a borrowed Chevy Chevelle. But what did I know? I was a 35-year-old virgin, preparing for my own “first time,” which, incidentally, didn’t happen until I was well into 36. I was not frigid, fearful or socially inept. Not overweight or unattractive. Didn’t suffer from halitosis or social anxiety disorder. I was a practicing Mormon, and Mormons “wait” until marriage. So I had waited, spent the first two decades of my adult life celibate and, for the most part, alone. Because only after the trial of my faith would I be blessed with an eternal marriage, which, I prayed, would also blow my mind in the bedroom. It never occurred to me that I would remain unmarried, especially in a system where marriage is not only a commandment, but also one of life’s primary purposes. Turns out, though, that there is no place in that community for a single woman who doesn’t want children. My only available choice within the church was to wait for my reward in heaven, as Mormon doctrine promises that single members denied marriage, family and sex lives on earth will have them after death. Needless to say, this wasn’t a compelling argument. Most troubling was the fact that as I grew older I had the distinct sense of remaining a child in a woman’s body; virginity brought with it arrested development on the level of a handicapping condition, like the Russian orphans I’d read about whose lack of physical contact altered their neurobiology and prevented them from forming emotional bonds. Similarly, it felt as if celibacy was stunting my growth; it wasn’t just sex I lacked but relationships with men entirely. Too independent for Mormon men, and too much a virgin for the other set, I felt trapped in adolescence. My first act of open rebellion was to go see “Brokeback Mountain” in Seattle’s rainbow-striped Capitol Hill neighborhood with a pair of lesbian friends. I was not ready to have an alcoholic beverage or a cup of coffee, to lie with a man or smoke a cigarette. But I could watch
a movie, even if that movie was an obvious attack on the sanctity of hetero marriage, with its handsome, straight, Hollywood actors acting as if homosexuality were not perverse. Because while I am also straight and believe in God, one thing became clear that day: I could empathize with those gay cowboys. I knew, as an unmarried, 30-something, happywithout-children Mormon woman, how it felt to grow apart from one’s community. I knew what it was to be fundamentally bound to an ill-fitting life, to be the object of pity and judgment, to feel I had no choice but to be the thing that made me “other,” and to be told that if I prayed hard enough, God would bless me to want what I was supposed to want. Stage 2 of my rebellion happened immediately after the movie, at Babeland, our city’s world-renowned sextoy store. My lesbian companions were supportive of, if perplexed by, my commitment to the Law of Chastity; they were protective of my innocence, in the same way another friend once knocked a pot cookie out of my hand, lest I become unwittingly stoned on her watch. But what could be more fun than taking a 34-year-old virgin to a shop selling everything from art-glass dildos to vibrating nipple clamps? And what could be funnier than watching said virgin earnestly study each product’s list of features for water resistance, battery life, noise factor, shape, size and heft? The few relationships I did have — all with non-Mormon men — lasted only a few weeks, months if it was summertime, and all dates could begin and end outside, in daylight, delaying the expectation of physical contact that darkness inspires. The pattern was predictable: at first, men were intrigued, turned on by my virginity, the landscape of uncharted territory, my innocence and curiosity. In certain scenarios, a man believes (or hopes) I’m playing an elaborate game of hard to get, that the whole charade will culminate one night in a seedy, sweaty, up-against-the-wall scene out of “Road House,” starring himself as a young Patrick Swayze. However, every time fantasy met reality these men went in search of something simpler. And who could blame them? We were grown adults. Most of them had been having active sex lives for decades, and it was weird for them (some would say ridiculous) to suddenly be thrust back into the eighth grade. So why wasn’t I dating Mormon men? In a nutshell, the pool is small, and people marry young, for obvious reasons.
The leftovers were left over: closeted gay men, porn-addicted virgins, along with the merely awkward, uncompromising and unlucky. My favorite was the movie industry veteran who, after offering me a peanut butter cup, said: “Marie loves peanut butter. You know — Marie Osmond? We dated in college. She was into it, but I just couldn’t handle being Mister Marie Osmond.” Obviously, I was left over, too — I was just never sure what my problem was. Until one man let me know. After overhearing a friend and me comparing our weekend horror-date stories, he walked up to me and asked, “You know what your problem is?” No, I did not know what my problem was. And I was dying to find out. “Your problem,” he said, “is you don’t need a man.” I thought that was a good thing — to be able to take care of oneself. He asked if I had a job. “Yes.” “A car?” “Yes.” “A house?” “Yes.” “Clothes?” “Of course.” “Food?” “Obviously.” “That’s your problem.” “Excuse me?” “Men in the church are raised to be providers. We are the breadwinners, the stewards of the household. If you have all the things we’re supposed to provide, we have nothing to give you.” “What of love?” I asked. “What of intimacy and partnership and making a run at the world together?” “Nope,” he said. “We’re providers.” Regardless of my tragic dating history, the fact that I had no reason to feel hopeful, I tried for 15 years not to lose hope. The gospel was the answer. It had saved my parents, each of whom had converted, separately, when they were young. Thanks to the Mormon church, they escaped childhoods rife with abuse, alcoholism and neglect. They found God, found each other, and were rescued by a community committed to family, forgiveness and joy. Out of chaos they created a tiny space where our family of four lived happily and prospered. I was surrounded by love, taught that I am a child of God, that I have a divine purpose — my whole life I’d felt secure, fulfilled, purposeful and connected. And further, I’d made a
commitment. Why would I abandon God and his church now when in all ways but one I had asked and had received? Perhaps the failure was mine — I’m sure many church members see it that way. I was too weak to endure. They’ll say I should have waited another decade, or spent my whole life alone if that’s what God required. I’m just unwilling to believe that’s what God wants for anyone, and was unwilling to continue spiraling further into a disconnected life, feeling abandoned, being discounted. Oddly, my trip to Planned Parenthood provided much that the church had not in recent years. During my exam, the clinician explained every move before she made it, asked permission to touch me during the most routine procedures. I was mystified: by her compassion, by the level of attention paid to my body — as if it were fragile, or sacred. Only then did it occur to me how many terrified and abused women Planned Parenthood must treat every day. And that brought me to tears, sorrowful for the ways in which we all suffer, in whatever ways we do, and grateful for the unlikely refuge of this place. Grateful also for the safety granted my own tears, prompted by the delicate weight of a hand on my shoulder, the warmth of her palm against my back. How unprepared I was to experience tenderness in the place I had been warned so vehemently against. How unprepared for the flood of relief, the bud of hope, after a life devoted to keeping myself separate from my body. Here was a path, an opening; here was empathy. I would have an IUD instead of children; I would have intellectual and spiritual freedom; I would write poems and finally live inside my body; I would, for the love of God, feel a man’s hands on me before I died.
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
The San Juan Weekly
29
PEOPLE
For Ex-Prisoners, a Haven Away From the Streets
By TINA ROSENBERG
T
his year, the United States will release nearly three-quarters of a million people from prison, a record high. Nationally, 2.3 million people are in prison in the United States, and 95 percent of them will, at some point, get out and go home. Society has a strong interest in keeping them home — in helping them to become law-abiding citizens instead of falling back into their old ways and returning to prison. But American programs for newly released prisoners echo the typical follies of our criminal justice system: our politicians usually believe that voters only want the emotional satisfactions of meting out maximum punishment, even if these policies lead to even more crime. The usual package granted to someone released from prison in New York state is $40, a bus ticket and the considerable stigma that follows an ex-offender. Since prisoners are often held far away from their families and states charge astronomical rates for prison phone calls, prisoners often lose touch with their loved ones and may not have anyone to take them in when they get home. They may arrive in their home cities with no
plans, other than — worrisomely — those hatched with fellow prisoners. They have little prospect for jobs or housing. Since many don’t get effective drug treatment in prison, they might still crave a fix, which costs money. It is little wonder that some former prisoners fall back into crime within hours or days. Returning prisoners need many things: stable housing, drug treatment, job training, G.E.D. (high school equivalency) classes, parenting lessons, anger management. But even the handful of people who do worry about ex-offenders rarely mention what may be the most crucial need of all: a better class of friends. Former prisoners go back to their old neighborhoods and meet up with their old gang, or new people of the only type they may be comfortable with — criminals. But what people need is to stop hanging out with associates who tempt them with promises of easy money or drug-filled nights. They need to start hanging out with people who think about the consequences of their actions, who value legitimate jobs, sobriety and family — people who go to their A.A. meetings and G.E.D. classes, who are trying to rebuild their lives. How important are the right
friends? We know that people get into crime and gangs primarily because their friends do. Hanging around with delinquent friends encourages young people to think of themselves as delinquents, and puts them in a world where criminal behavior is easy to engage in and brings social rewards. We do not know as much about whether pro-social peer groups can turn people away from crime. But it is reasonable to believe that the right peer group can help. In West Harlem there is a large and beautiful Gothic building overlooking the Hudson River. It is called
the Fortune Academy, but it is known to all as the Castle. It is owned by the Fortune Society, a group dedicated to helping returning prisoners succeed with starting new lives. The Fortune Society helps about 4,000 newly released prisoners each year with job training and placement, drug treatment, classes in cooking and anger management and being a father, and G.E.D. studies. Most of the people who work at Fortune were once themselves drug addicted, homeless or imprisoned. This is important. “The clients can look at the staff and say, ‘a few years ago, that person was where I am,’” said Glenn E. Martin, Fortune’s vice president of development and public affairs. (He himself served six years in prison, and was released nine years ago.) The staff can also see past appearances: “Some others may see a guy with his pants pulled down and his hat on, yelling, and say ‘he’s not ready,’ ” said Martin. “But we’ll talk to him.” The credibility and understanding produced by having a staff of former offenders is important. But about 300 of Fortune’s clients each year get something more: a bed in the Castle, and the chance to start a lawabiding life in the company of other people trying to do the same. The Castle provides solutions to several of the most important problems facing newly released prisoners. One is housing. Between 10 and 20 percent of people released from state and city prisons and jails have nowhere stable to go — they couch surf with friends or go into homeless shelters. But a stable home is a pre-
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PEOPLE
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Las Cucharas Prison, Puerto Rico.
Comes from page 29 requisite for all the other things needed for a productive life. The Castle can be that home for a few nights or many months, until the person can find work and safe housing he or she can afford. Anyone newly released from prison with nowhere else to go can apply to live in the Castle. Open beds are filled by the first qualified applicant, but the Castle turns away at least 10 people for every one it accepts. Prisoners throughout New York state apply — because the Fortune Society has physical offices in some jails and prisons, the parole bureaucracy refers them and because prisoners themselves spread the word. “We get several thousand letters a year,” says JoAnne Page, the president and chief executive of the Fortune Society. “We get referrals from people’s mothers.” The Castle has single rooms for residents who earn them; the rest have roommates. It serves meals and has staff on duty around the clock. It has a computer lab, laundry and a cafeteria. Residents are required to go full time to counseling, services such as drug treatment or job placement, or to school. But perhaps more important than housing, the Castle gives people a new group of friends to identify with. Every Thursday night at 6 the Castle has a group meeting of all its residents. At one recent meeting, people sat around an enormous table and talked about the successes of their week. One woman talked about her job as a janitor at a shelter for women. “It’s a safe place, and clean — that’s because of me,” she said with pride. One man recounted a speech he attended by a political candidate. Another said he opened a bank ac-
count for the first time in his life. One woman was applying for jobs and wondered aloud how best to phrase the information that she was a felon. JoAnne Page took the opportunity to deliver one of Fortune Society’s key messages: You are not a felon. You committed a felony and did your time, but that is not who you are. One man announced that the Castle’s chorus was rehearsing and was open to new members. The residents applauded each other fervently. Delancey Street, in San Francisco, is a very different community with the same purpose. People come to live at the Delancey Street residential building for an average of four years. Each resident is required to get at least a high school equivalency degree and learn several marketable job skills, such as furniture making, sales or accounting. The organization is completely run by its residents, who teach each other — there is no paid staff at all. Teaching others is part of the rehabilitation process for Delancey residents. The residence is financed in part by private donations, but the majority of its financing comes from the businesses the residents run, such as restaurants, event planning, a corporate car service, a moving company and framing shop. All money earned goes to the collective, which pays all its residents’ expenses. At both Fortune and Delancey, a person emerging from prison is surrounded by a community of people who support him, hold him accountable, teach him skills and model good behavior. Many of the men and women in these programs come to think of themselves as productive members of society for the first time in their lives, and it may also be the first time they ever feel competent at
The San Juan Weekly anything besides lawbreaking. The Delancey Street residence, which began in 1971, has never been formally evaluated. But there is no question that is phenomenally successful. It has graduated more than 14,000 people from prison into constructive lives. Carol Kizziah, who manages Delancey’s efforts to apply its lessons elsewhere, says that the organization estimates that 75 percent of its graduates go on to productive lives. (For former prisoners who don’t go to Delancey, only 25 to 40 percent avoid re-arrest.) Since it costs taxpayers nothing, from a government’s point of view it could very well be the most cost-effective social program ever devised. The program has established similar Delancey Street communities in Los Angeles, New Mexico, North Carolina and upstate New York. Outsiders have replicated the Delancey Street model in about five other places. While some other Fortune Society programs have been researched and found to be effective, there has been no study of the Castle, which began in 2002. Nevertheless, the Castle is often cited by criminal justice experts as a model for helping ex-offenders. New York State’s Division of Parole gave a special award to the Fortune Society last month, and parole officers who work with Castle residents speak highly of it. “It’s working,” said Otis Cruse, a parole officer who has had the Castle in his jurisdiction. “It has counseling, groups, connections to employment – it’s one-stop shopping. It’s comfortable, quiet, clean and safe — you can sleep without looking over your shoulder. It’s an environment where positive people are doing positive things — you are colleagues in pursuing the same goal.”
There is one possible caveat about the Castle’s effectiveness: most of the people I saw at the Castle were in their 30s or older. Older people who get out of prison, by definition, are more likely than young ones to have served long sentences for serious offenses. And the longer the sentence, the more disconnected and disoriented prisoners are likely to be upon release. So they are important clients for the Castle. But they are also at an age where people are leaving crime on their own, finally ready to accept some responsibility and aware they are not immortal and want a family and a stable life. Crime is a young person’s game. It may be true that many people at the Castle successfully turn around their lives. The question is whether their age would help them to do so in any case. There are two puzzles here. Delancey Street is now celebrating its 40th anniversary. One would think that by now there would be Delancey 2.0 models sprouting all over. But there are not. A related mystery concerns the idea that underlies both Delancey and the Castle: the importance of prosocial peers. Our guts tell us they matter; we know the effect our friends can have on our behavior. Peer pressure may be the single most important factor getting people into crime — surely it should be employed to get them out again. Yet it is not. Besides Delancey and the Castle, there is probably not a single government agency or citizen group working with former prisoners that lists “clean-living peers” alongside housing, job training and other items on its agenda for what former prisoners need to go straight. These two communities of former prisoners are good projects, but they have failed to have a wider impact.
San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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FASHION & BEAUTY in sensible proportions, as well as shearling coats that might as well have “Christmas present” printed on the lapel. At Versace, the vagrant design course of the last few years — oligarch enforcer meets Vegas pimp on the way to Promises Treatment Center in Malibu — was dispatched in favor of almost martial severity. As you can tell from looking at her, Donatella Versace favors shapes that are tightly controlled. Her own strenuously achieved Barbie figure found its masculine counterpart in rigid suiting and long coats with the holsterstyle belts that so many people have “borrowed” from Helmut Lang (who got them from the military, of course) over the years that the designer should be paid some kind of royalty.
Continues on page 32
Designers Anonymous By GUY TREBAY
B
ANKSY said it best: “In the future, everybody will be anonymous for 15 minutes.” The British graffiti artist and prankster’s inversion of the weary Warhol dictum about fame comes as a tonic in an age of self-promotion and so-called social media. No one thinks Twitter or the Situation are about to go away anytime soon, but a growing number of people find themselves seeking relief from a culture of doofus semi-celebrities and henpecking P.D.A.’s. Right now few things seem as appealing as having a random thought and deciding to keep it to oneself. Suddenly anonymity, the kind that lets you blend into a crowd, looks pretty desirable, too. It certainly did during a week of Milanese fashion shows that were so unostentatious as to be generic. Almost across the board, designers here chose a low-key approach, one that was not merely commercial (that’s expected in Milan) but almost self-deflecting. Miuccia Prada, who called her show a
personal statement (whatever that means), was characteristically in tune with the spirit of a particular contrarian and countercultural moment. In the past Ms. Prada has had her way with men, making them puppets in an ongoing exploration of gender norms, or else giving them unaccustomed roles to play in the anachronistic garments of earlier eras. But this time she built a silhouette from generic and neutralizing volumes. A big square-shouldered black overcoat of fingertip length, scaled to slipcover a refrigerator, was paired with narrow trousers or knickers and worn with striped knee socks and shoes with round heels. Mentally erase the styling gimmicks, and the clothes conveyed the message that the wearer would rather you not take particular note of him. In some cases, they looked as if, should you undo the coat buttons, you would find nobody inside. There can’t be any more overused word in fashion than modern. But if by modern one means culturally attuned, then the Prada collection was particularly well judged; the clothes looked protective without being armoring. They were mostly without gimmicks (about the Lurex sweaters, the less said the better) or even gadget pockets. There were, though, some strange Hitchcockian valises of just about the right proportions to contain a portable typewriter or perhaps even a severed head. It would be stretching things to draw connections between designs at labels as unalike as, say, Gucci or Versace or even Dsquared. But at all three of these houses there seemed to be a determination on the part of designers to stick to basics. Consumers
have too much on their minds, even in this post-recession, to be caught up in fashion theatrics and folderol. At Gucci, Frida Giannini made an obedient nod to the 1970s and the brand’s “heritage,” as if someone in corporate had jerked her leash and given a command: “Tom Ford!” But Ms. Giannini is shrewder than that and, after several years of heading the design team, more independent. Yes, there were vaguely retro bell-bottom trousers and satchels and coats made from materials (crocodile, lizard and sheared beaver) that would send Bambi racing to the forest to sound the alarm. But there were also straightforwardly tailored garments made from modest materials (mainly corduroy),
FASHION & BEAUTY Comes from page 31 The stern styling — the models, seemingly cast for their knife-edge cheekbones, had rouge-tinted lips and hair pomaded to resemble patent leather — was the one bit of theater in a show that was held at the Versace palazzo. With the exception of a humming Prussian blue, the palette was limited to what you might see if you split a coal sack and dumped it on the ground. Similarly at the Dsquared show, the usual loony backdrop (a camping wagon in the snowy Western woods) and clever styling tricks that are the stock in trade of Dean and Dan Caten (blacksmith aprons, cotton surplices, bad-guy Borsalinos right out of Sergio Leone), when stripped away, revealed a fairly characterless selection of dark wool jackets and artificially banged-up jeans. Is it damning with faint praise to say of the black coats that they looked sensible and warm? Given that these are the designers who pioneered style innovations like plunging necklines for men and plumber’s cleavage, it probably is. A complaint often voiced here is that stylists rule the roost because so few designers design. Even at venerable labels like Giorgio Armani — still so potent a force in Hollywood that he led the pack of designers in the number of stars to be seen wearing his clothes at the Golden Globes —silly gestures like sarongs printed with Mr. Armani’s face and knotted over cargo pants barely obscure a general paucity of new ideas. It seems clear from Mr. Armani’s commercial dominance that the consumer base for this powerhouse brand comes to him for the familiar, not for innovation. But even the most devout Armani customer might gripe about the curious proportions of double-breasted jackets buttoned high and tight across the rib cage and trousers with expandable ba-
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San Juan Weekly
lloon pleats that make even snake-hipped models look broad in the beam. Like Alice, men mysteriously shrink and grow in Milan. The body type favored by most designers remains ectomorphic. The coltish models cast for shows are uniformly narrow and delicate of bone. “Luckily I had the cheeks, and that’s what counts,” the Michigan-born English model Sebastian Sauve said before the Dsquared show. He also has all-important suction-cup lips. “I’m 6-foot-3, and I weigh 190 pounds,” Mr. Sauve said. “That’s too big for the business, really. My agents used to say, ‘You need to get smaller legs.’ ” And I said: ‘Sure, no problem. I’ll just put myself in a coma and then come back in six months.’ ” One remembered this when revisiting the Jil Sander show online, attempting to conjure again that imaginary consumer who happens to have a boy’s pencil thighs and an adult’s line of credit. As in the past, Raf Simons showed clothes of deceptive simpli-
city: cardigans, sleek skimmers, clothes that favor micro-quilting and the bonded fabrics that are the sine qua non around here. And as in the past, he employed sharp colors that make it seem as if he got first pick of the good Crayolas while other designers were stuck with black and granite gray. Well, not everyone. Mickey Mouse primaries were a feature at Dolce & Gabbana’s cartoony show, and Tomas Maier at Bottega Veneta seemed more than usually influenced by his life in the Sunshine State. Yet as amusing as those sharp chemical hues may look in shop windows (and the neon clothes in the window of the Jil Sander store here exert a kind of weird magnetic pull), it is a rare consumer willing to risk standing on a street corner looking like a traffic cone. The somber austerity of Jil Sander stood in contrast to the jokiness at Thom Browne, who, having already mined aquatic and wheeled sports for his Moncler collection, turned to equestrian ones. Five dressage riders atop big-rumped horses opened the show, held in a freezing cold dirt-floored arena. There followed a fairly ludicrous selection of garments based on fox-hunting gear worn by models leading leashed beagles. Or maybe it was the other way around. A dramatic slash of red, the kind one associates with Manet, was the first thing to greet the eye at the McQueen show, which was held beneath a typically hectic crowd scene in a Tiepolo fresco adorning the ceiling of the Palazzo Clerici. It was the red of
a handsomely exaggerated fur-collared redingote designed by Sarah Burton, a modest woman of outsize talents who took charge of the label she had long helped Alexander McQueen design in the years before his suicide. There were many signs this week that the capacities of the tailoring trade are undiminished and still available to produce wonders. This seemed true of the perfect and perfectly nondescript two-button blue suit that was an adjunct to a small, threepiece collection presented by Umberto Angeloni under his Uman label (sold exclusively at Barneys New York). It was true of a singularly smart duffel coat in an off-white 1970s blanket plaid and with rope toggle closures, designed by the former J. Press designer Mark McNairy for Woolrich Woolen Mills. And it was certainly true of the many subtle touches in Ms. Burton’s assured first collection for the McQueen label, which pulled off the impressive feat of advancing the design brief of her brilliant mentor — there were off-kilter jacquards, gorse-colored blazers worn over woolen track pants, jackets with mildly exaggerated pagoda shoulders, theatrical cloaks with military frogging, and unabashedly kooky Heathcliff capes — without in any way impersonating him. In the modest spirit of the moment, Ms. Burton chose not to take a bow at the end of her show, holding on to her anonymity while she still can.
The San Juan Weekly
I
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Ricky Martin
f you talk about Latino artists talented, it is inevitable that mentions Ricky Martin. The singer from Puerto Rico is one of the most prolific of his generation, strength and success has garnered thousands of fans and fans in all corners of the world. However, in recent times has transcended by conditions attached to their personal life to his career. It’s been a pretty important time since it had issued his homo-
sexuality, and since then the media have been more vigilant than they do off stage and not on it. However, Ricky Martin that situation has not weakened but encouraged him to make a new world tour to show their artistic qualities are more relevant than ever. In 2011 it will see again in all its glory from the hand of MAS, Music + Soul + Sex World Tour. The singer of Puerto Rico announced the completion of that tour in December last year, after attending the ceremony of the Top 40 in Madrid. Since then it has caused a stir among his followers, as they will have the opportunity to see their idol after more than two years of silence in the purely musical level. According to statements from Ricky Martin , the new tour will be spectacular and will give fans what they are expecting. “In this show I promise MORE, more music, more soul, more sensuality and playfulness as we all like,” the artist said in an interview with the site 20minutes, Spain. We should also mention that one of the main incentives for the realization of this World Tour is to promote
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Música Coliseo
Alma S exo José M igu
Vie. 25 el Agre de mar lot zo de 2 Sáb. 26 011 8:30p.m de mar . zo de 2 Dom. 2 0 1 1 8:30p.m 7 de m arzo de . 2011 5 :00p.m .
the new album by Puerto Rican artist, to be launched in the current 2011 and bear the same name as the tour. While fans have expressed their h ir support for Ricky Martin in all private events were made public by the media are clamoring for the artist perform live shows and to publish the songs that form part of its new recording material . If we talk specifically about the tour that will take over the world, it is still too early to know the specific dates of the proceedings. What specifically do know is that the launch of the new album by Puerto Rican to be the next February 1. As for the presentations of Music + Soul + Sex World Tour 2011, we only know with certainty the date of release. It will be the 25th of March, when Martin was present in his homeland: San Juan de Puerto Rico. In the city the show takes place at the Coliseo de Puerto Rico José M. Agrelot. From there the singer begin their presentations in different cities of Central and South America and Europe. It is known to be presented in several cities in Spain, but the only un-
veiled (and obvious) is Madrid. For now, fans will have to wait a while until they carry out official announcements of dates and cities. This is great news that Ricky Martin begins a new tour, and they can demonstrate that it remains in full force and still has much more to give hardcore fans.
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Soyeon Lee Winner, 2004 Concert Artists Guild International Competition
K
orean pianist Soyeon Lee, winner of the 2004 Concert Artists Guild competition, has already been hailed by The New York Times as a pianist with “a huge, richly varied sound, a lively imagination and a firm sense of style,” while The Washington Post has lauded her for her “stunning command of the keyboard.” Soyeon Lee has been rapturously received as guest soloist with The Cleveland Orchestra and the London Symphony Orchestra, as well as the Louisiana Philharmonic Orchestra, symphony orchestras of Columbus, Napa Valley, San Diego, Scottsdale, Shreveport, New York City’s Park Avenue Chamber Symphony and Orquesta Sinfónica Nacional (Dominican Republic), including performances under the batons of Rafael Frühbeck de Burgos, Jahja Ling and Otto-Werner Mueller. Recital appearances include
New York City programs at Carnegie Hall’s Zankel Hall and Weill Recital Hall, Merkin Concert Hall and Lincoln Center for the Performing Art’s Alice Tully Hall, Washington’s John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, Cleveland’s Severance Hall, the Ravinia Festival’s “Rising Stars” series, Auditorio de Musica de Nacional in Madrid - part of a 13-city tour of Spain - and Baek-Am Art Hall in Seoul. An avid chamber musician, she has collaborated with the Parker String Quartet, bassist Edgar Meyer and the Edgeffect Ensemble with Mark O’Connor, and performed at the chamber music festivals of Laguna Beach, Taos and Montréal. Among Ms. Lee’s most recent collaborative projects are joint performances in Seoul with her pop-star sister, Soeun Lee. Passionate about expanding environmental consciousness through music, Soyeon Lee gave to critical
acclaim the first ever eco-awareness concert at Carnegie Hall’s Zankel Hall in February 2008. Presented by TerraCycle, Inc. and Honest Tea, Inc, in conjunction with Concert Artists Guild., Ms. Lee wore a commissioned concert gown, made of over 6000 used juice pouches, by eco-fashion designer Nina Valenti. This concert, “Re!nvented,” occasioned over 20 media features, including The New York Times, TimeOut New York, International Herald Tribune, V Magazine, Vogue. com, Miami magazine, the Korean Centro Broadcasting System and ABC’s Luis A. Fde Bellas Artes erré, San “Good Morning America.” Dom. 30 turce de enero de 2011 Soyeon Lee was featured on 6:00p.m. the January 2006 cover of SYMPHONY magazine’s annual “Emermer20008 early teachers included Victoria ging Artists” issue and in the 2008 di P Pretoro. M hk tk l and d Marina M i t More Mushkatkol edition of Musical America’s “More Thrills of Discovery,” and her debut Ms. Lee earned her Bachelor’s and ’s degrees from The Juilliard CD on the Naxos label, featuring so- Master’s di d with Jeronatas of Scarlatti, was released in Fe- School, where she studied bruary 2007. Ms. Lee has been heard me Lowenthal and Robert McDonald. in live broadcasts from New York City While at Juilliard, she earned the dison WQXR’s “McGraw-Hill Young Ar- tinguished Artist Diploma, won the tists Showcase” and WNYC’s “Soun- Rachmaninoff Concerto Competidcheck,” and recorded performan- tion, two consecutive Gina Bachauer ces from Washington’s WGMS and Scholarship Competitions and was Cleveland’s WCLV; she has also been awarded the Helen Fay Prize, Artur heard throughout the United States Rubinstein Prize, Susan Rose Career on National Public Radio. A classical Grant and the William Petschek Piano music documentary featuring Soyeon Debut Award. In addition to her victory at the Lee, entitled Classic Club, has been ai2004 CAG International Competition, red nationally in Japan on NHK. Born in South Korea, Soyeon Lee Ms. Lee also won the Second and began studying the piano at the age Mozart prizes of the Cleveland Interof five. At age nine, she moved to the national Piano Competition and the United States and attended the In- Bronze Medal of the Paloma O’Shea terlochen Arts Academy, graduating Santander International Piano Comwith highest honors in music. Her petition.
Christian Tetzlaff
Soyeon Lee
, Pianista
Christian
Tetzlaff
Centro Luis A. Fde Bellas Artes e Jue. 3 de rré, Santurce febrero de 2011
T
etzlaff was born in Hamburg. He began playing the violin and piano at the age of 6, and made his concert debut at 14 years old. He studied with Uwe-Martin Haiberg at the Musikhochschule Lübeck and with Walter Levine at the University of Cincinnati College-Conservatory of Music. He is much in demand as a soloist with major orchestras of the world and praised for his recordings, including recent Beethoven works per-
. formed d with w the lle Orchestra O Tonhalle Zurich under David avid d Zinman. Zinman He plays a contemporary violin by Stefan-Pehich he has had since 2002, preferring ter Greiner which i strument. He uses it to his previous Stradivarius instrument. a Peccatte bow, and Vision strings by Thomastikk Infeld in Vienna. His sister, Tanja Tetzlaff, is a professional cellist with whom he sometimes performs.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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Close Look at Orthotics Raises Doubts By GINA KOLATA
B
enno M. Nigg has become a leading researcher on orthotics — those shoe inserts that many athletes use to try to prevent injuries. And what he has found is not very reassuring. For more than 30 years Dr. Nigg, a professor of biomechanics and co-director of the Human Performance Lab at the University of Calgary in Alberta, has asked how orthotics affect motion, stress on joints and muscle activity. Do they help or harm athletes who use them? And is the huge orthotics industry — from customized shoe inserts costing hundreds of dollars to over-the-counter ones sold at every drugstore — based on science or on wishful thinking? His overall conclusion: Shoe inserts or orthotics may be helpful as a short-term solution, preventing injuries in some athletes. But it is not clear how to make inserts that work. The idea that they are supposed to correct mechanical-alignment problems does not hold up. Joseph Hamill, who studies lower-limb biomechanics at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, agrees. “We have found many of the same results,” said Dr. Hamill, professor of kinesiology and the director of the university’s biomechanics laboratory. “I guess the main thing to note is that, as biomechanists, we really do not know how orthotics work.” Orthotists say Dr. Nigg’s sweeping statement does not take into account the benefits their patients perceive. The key measure of success, said Jeffrey P. Wensman, director of clinical and technical services at the Orthotics and Prosthetics Center at the University of Michigan, is that patients feel better. “The vast majority of our patients are happier having them than not,” he said about orthotics that are inserted in shoes. Seamus Kennedy, president and co-owner of Hersco Ortho Labs in New York, said there was an abundance of evidence — hundreds of published papers — that orthotics can treat and prevent “mechanically induced foot problems,” lea-
ding to common injuries like knee pain, shinsplints and pain along the bottom of the foot. “Orthotics do work,” Mr. Kennedy said. “But choosing the right one requires a great deal of care.” Yet Scott D. Cummings, president of the American Academy of Orthotists and Prosthetists, says the trade is only now moving toward becoming a science. So far, most of the focus in that direction has been on rigorously assessing orthotics and prosthetics for other conditions, like scoliosis, with less work on shoe orthotics for otherwise healthy athletes. “Anecdotally, we know what designs work and what designs don’t work” for foot orthotics, said Mr. Cummings, who is an orthotist and prosthetist at Next Step in Manchester, N.H. But when it comes to science and rigorous studies, he added, “comparatively, there isn’t a whole lot of evidence out there.” Dr. Nigg would agree. In his studies, he found there was no way to predict the effect of a given orthotic. Consider, for example, an insert that pushes the foot away from a pronated position, or rotated excessively outward. You might think it would have the same effect on everyone who pronates, but it does not. One person might respond by increasing the stress on the outside of the foot, another on the inside. Another might not respond at all, unconsciously correcting the orthotic’s correction. “That’s the first problem we have,” Dr. Nigg said. “If you do something to a shoe, different people will react differently.” The next problem is that there may be little agreement among orthotics makers about what sort of insert to prescribe. In one study discussed in his new book, “Biomechanics of Sport Shoes,” Dr. Nigg sent a talented distance runner to five certified orthotics makers. Each made a different type of insert to “correct” his pronation. The athlete wore each set of orthotics for three days and then ran 10 kilometers, about 6 miles. He liked two of the orthotics and ran faster with them than with the other three. But the construction of
the two he liked was completely different. Then what, Dr. Nigg asked in series of studies, do orthotics actually do? They turn out to have little effect on kinematics — the actual movement of the skeleton during a run. But they can have large effects on muscles and joints, often making muscles work as much as 50 percent harder for the same movement and increasing stress on joints by a similar amount. As for “corrective” orthotics, he says, they do not correct so much as lead to a reduction in muscle strength. In one recent review of published papers, Dr. Nigg and his colleagues analyzed studies on orthotics and injury prevention. Nearly all published studies, they report, lacked scientific rigor. For example, they did not include groups that, for comparison, did not receive orthotics. Or they discounted people who dropped out of the study, even though dropouts are often those who are not benefiting from a treatment. Being generous about studies with design flaws that could overstate effects, Dr. Nigg and his colleagues concluded that custom-made orthotics could help prevent and treat plantar fasciitis, a common injury to a tendon at the bottom of the foot, and stress fractures of the tibia, along the shin. They added, though, that the research was inadequate for them to have confidence in those conclusions. Dr. Nigg also did his own study with 240 Canadian soldiers. Half of them got inserts and the others, for comparison, did not. Those who got inserts had a choice of six different types that did different things to foot positioning. Each man chose the insert he found most comfortable and wore it for four months. The men selected five of the six inserts with equal frequency. The findings were somewhat puzzling: While the group that used inserts had about half as many injuries — defined as pain that kept them from exercising for at least half a day — there was no obvious relation between the insert a soldier chose and his biomechanics without
it. That’s why Dr. Nigg says for now it is difficult to figure out which orthotic will help an individual. The only indication seems to be that a comfortable orthotic might be better than none at all, at least for the activities of people in the military. So where does this leave people like Jason Stallman, my friend and colleague at The New York Times? Jason has perfectly flat feet — no arch. He got his first pair of orthotics at 12 or 13 and has worn orthotics all the time, for walking and running ever since. About a year ago he decided to try going without them in his everyday life; he still wears them when he runs. Every medical specialist Jason has seen tried to correct his flat feet, but with little agreement on how to do it. Every new podiatrist or orthopedist, he told me, would invariably look at his orthotics and say: “Oh, these aren’t any good. The lab I use makes much better ones. Your injury is probably linked to these poor-fitting orthotics.” So he tried different orthotic styles, different materials, different orthotics labs with every new doctor. That is a typical story, Dr. Nigg says. In fact, he adds, there is no need to “correct” a flat foot. All Jason needs to do is strengthen his foot and ankle muscles and then try running without orthotics. Dr. Nigg says he always wondered what was wrong with having flat feet. Arches, he explains, are an evolutionary remnant, needed by primates that gripped trees with their feet. “Since we don’t do that anymore, we don’t really need an arch,” he wrote in an e-mail. “Why would we? For landing — no need. For the stance phase — no need. For the takeoff phase — no need. Thus a flat foot is not something that is bad per se.” So why shouldn’t Jason — or anyone, for that matter — just go to a store and buy whatever shoe feels good, without worrying about “correcting” a perceived biomechanical defect? “That is exactly what you should do,” Dr. Nigg replied.
36 January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
The San Juan Weekly
Birth Control on the Playground? L
ike many parents, I was fairly shocked to read in The Times that a Maine school district will begin dispensing birth control to middle-school students. It’s difficult to imagine that the 11- to 13-year-olds I’ve met could possibly be interested in sex. As a result, I decided to find out what we really know about middle school kids and sex. Much of the data focuses on high school kids, but in 2003, the National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy and the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University attempted to track sexual activity among adolescents. The research report, called “14 and Younger: the Sexual Behavior of Young Adolescents,” concluded that most kids under 14 — about 80 percent — were not having sex. Still, that means that one in five young adolescents had had a sexual experience. What’s of such concern is that the data show we should be doing far more for these kids than handing out birth control. The study
found, for instance, that first sexual experiences among younger girls were more likely to be unwanted, compared to girls who don’t have sex until age 15 or older. And early sexual activity has been linked in other studies to increased risks for smoking, alcohol and drug use and dropping out of school. Here are some of the researchers’ main findings. • Middle school kids “date.” Nearly half of the kids ages 14 and younger who were surveyed reported having been on a date or having had a romantic relationship in the previous 18 months. • About one in five kids had had sexual intercourse by age 14. Percentages increased with age. By age 12, 4 to 5 percent of adolescents had had sex. At age 13, the figure had increased to 10 percent, and by age 14 it was between 18 and 19 percent. • Boys are more likely than girls to have had sex at an early age. By age 12, 2 to 4 percent of girls had been sexually active, while 6 to 8 percent of boys had been sexually
active. • Among kids having sex, three-quarters reported using condoms. However, half of the 14-yearolds surveyed incorrectly believed it was against the law for kids under 16 to buy condoms. • One in seven sexually active girls in this age group had been pregnant. The survey wasn’t designed to answer questions about young kids and oral sex. Another report last year by the Pacific Institute for Research and Education in Berkeley, Calif., found that 11 percent of kids ages 12 to 16 had engaged in oral sex, whereas 8 percent reported ha-
ving had sexual intercourse. That report doesn’t say how common oral sex was among the youngest kids in the survey, but it does note that the likelihood of kids’ engaging in both sexual behaviors was lower among the youngest and increased as adolescents got closer to age 16. The good news is that progress has been made in reducing teen pregnancy overall as well as in adolescents. In 1988, the pregnancy rate for girls 14 and under peaked at 17.8 per 1,000 girls, but by 2002 it had dropped to 8.6 per 1,000 girls, according to a survey last year from the Guttmacher Institute. The “14 and Younger” report advises parents, at the very least, not to allow younger adolescents to “date,” particularly if a child has paired with someone older. A third of 12-year-olds and almost half of 14-year-olds had been to a party where no adult was present, the authors found. “Parents need to know where their children are, what they are doing, and with whom,” the researchers concluded.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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Choosing Self-Esteem Over Sex or Pizza By RONI CARYN RABIN
A
re young people addicted to feeling good about themselves? Given the choice, young bright college students said they’d rather get a boost to their ego — like a compliment or a good grade on a paper — than eat a favorite food or engage in sex, a new paper suggests. The researchers question whether the so-called “me generation” of baby boomers has spawned a nation of self-absorbed young people hooked on their own self-esteem. The inflated sense of self in students, they argue, could lead to trouble in the work world and in personal relationships. Recent books like “The Narcissism Epidemic,” by Jean M. Twenge and W. Keith Campbell, have described a trend toward increasing levels of self-esteem and narcissism in young people. The idea is not without controversy, as other psychologists have questioned whether young people today are any more self-absorbed than earlier generations. Some believe that the maturation process is simply more protracted, and the delays are misinterpreted as selfishness. The results of the new paper suggest young people have a compulsion to feel good about themselves that overwhelms and precedes other desires.
“I was shocked,” said the lead researcher, Brad Bushman, professor of communication and psychology at the Ohio State University. “Everybody likes compliments, but more than engaging in your favorite sexual activity? More than receiving a paycheck? I was surprised it was such a powerful thing that it trumped everything else.” But Carol Landau, a clinical professor of psychiatry and medicine at Alpert Medical School at Brown University, pointed out that sex and alcohol are readily available on many college campuses and within students’ reach. Their accessibility could explain why students are more motivated to get good grades and positive feedback, which may be harder to come by. “The other rewards are somewhat within their control,” Dr. Landau said. “The self-esteem factors are not.” She also said she was hesitant to generalize from studies in which college students filled out questionnaires. Self-reporting can
often be unreliable. The current paper, published in The Journal of Personality, described two separate studies. One included 130 University of Michigan students who were asked to think about their favorite food, their favorite sexual activity and their favorite self-esteem-building experience, like getting a compliment or a good grade on a paper. Participants were asked both about how much they “liked” the activity and how much they “wanted” it on a scale of 1, for “not at all,” to 5, for “extremely.” An analysis of the results showed that the participants generally “liked” various activities, including those that boosted selfesteem, more than they “wanted” them. But compared to other activities, the difference between enjoying and wanting the activity was lowest for activities that boosted selfesteem. The distinction is important, Dr. Bushman said, because research on addiction suggests that one indication of habituation is that people tend to want or need something more than they actually like or enjoy it. The participants were also asked to do a timed test of intellectual ability, and then were told they had the option of waiting for an extra 10 minutes to have the test re-evaluated using a different algorithm that produces higher scores. This essen-
tially gave them an opportunity to get a self-esteem boost right there in the lab. Not surprisingly, students who highly valued self-esteem were more likely to be willing to stick around to get the new scores. In the second study, a group of 152 University of Michigan students were asked about their favorite activity, but were given an expanded list to choose from that included receiving a paycheck, seeing a best friend and drinking alcohol, in addition to eating a favorite food, engaging in a favorite sexual activity and having a self-esteembuilding experience. Again, self-esteem trumped all other rewards. This study also ascertained how recently participants had experienced or engaged in their favorite activities. It appeared to make no difference how long it had been since they had last received the rewards, the researchers said. Some researchers fault the emphasis placed on building and promoting self-esteem in children among certain schools of parenting and education. “The idea has been that if we build their self-esteem, then they’ll do better in school and in relationships,” said Dr. Twenge, the “Narcissism Epidemic” author. “Well, that puts the cart before the horse. When you break down the research you see that kids who behave well and get high grades develop high self-esteem — not the other way around.”
SCIENCE / TECH 38
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Interfering With Flight?
By CHRISTINE NEGRONI
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he announcement over the plane’s speaker seems as much a part of the routine before takeoff as the demonstration of how to buckle a seat belt: Please turn off all electronic devices. But some passengers invariably ignore the request, perhaps thinking that their iPods or e-books do not count. And really, does it matter if the devices are left on? The answer, it turns out, is that sometimes it may. “It’s a good news-bad news thing,” said David Carson, an engineer with Boeing. Electronic devices do not cause problems in every case, he said. “And that’s good,” he said. “It’s bad in that people assume it never will.” Passengers are taking an increasing array of devices on board planes — cellphones, tablets, GPS units and more. Many of these devices transmit a signal, and all of them emit electromagnetic waves, which, in theory, could interfere with the plane’s electronics. At the same time, older planes might not have the best shielding against the latest generation of devices, some engineers said. “Is it worrisome?” asked Bill Strauss, an engineer who studied passenger use of electronic devices several years ago. “It is.” Safety experts suspect that electronic interference has played a role in some accidents, though that is difficult to prove. One crash in which cellphone interference with airplane navigation was cited as a possible factor involved a charter in Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2003. Eight people died when the plane flew into the ground short of the runway. The pilot had called home, and the call remained connected for the last three minutes of the flight. In the final report,
the New Zealand Transport Accident Investigation Commission stated, “The pilot’s own cellphone might have caused erroneous indications” on a navigational aid. Since 2000, there have been at least 10 voluntary reports filed by pilots in the United States with the Aviation Safety Reporting System, administered by NASA. In 2007, one pilot recounted an instance when the navigational equipment on his Boeing 737 had failed after takeoff. A flight attendant told a passenger to turn off a hand-held GPS device and the problem on the flight deck went away. The Federal Aviation Administration says there are risks associated with electromagnetic interference and prohibits the use of electronics below 10,000 feet because pilots have less time at lower altitudes to deal with a problem. It is up to each airline to set the policy at higher altitudes. “There’s not enough evidence to warrant a change,” said Les Dorr, a spokesman for the agency. There are many reasons that passengers do not comply with the restrictions. Mr. Carson of Boeing cited one. “Devices blur the distinction. P.D.A.’s that are cellphones, cellphones that play music. In the mind of the nominal consumer, it is hard to know what the device is actually doing.” Some passengers are like Nicole Rodrigues of Los Angeles, who acknowledges that she listens to music on her cellphone when she is not supposed to. “In my head, I imagine it not being a problem,” she said. “The whole airplane is filled with electronics that are constantly on. Is my little cellphone going to make that big of a difference?” Even flight attendants, charged with enforcing the rules, can fail to recognize the potential for problems, said Dinkar Mokadam, an occupational safety
specialist with the Association of Flight Attendants. “I don’t believe it is general knowledge that someone could plug in an iPod and potentially harm the aircraft — even among the flight attendant and pilot community,” Mr. Mokadam said. There is no recent survey of how often passengers ignore restrictions on use of their gadgets, though seven years ago, Mr. Strauss, then a doctoral student at Carnegie Mellon University, monitored the signals emitted from cellphones during flights and discovered that they were being left on. Airline executives say that for the moment, they do not plan to create more restrictive policies. “We’re accommodating the wishes of our passengers,” said Tom Hendricks, head of safety and operations for the Air Transport Association, the airlines’ trade group. “They wish to use these devices.” John Darbo, an air safety consultant and former airline executive who was a member of the group that helped the F.A.A. develop rules, said airlines could not police passengers or stop them from bringing electronics on the airplane. “Do you expect us to do that?” he asked. “That’s absurd. What we have to do is tell them what’s going on, elicit their cooperation and harden the airplanes.”
Before deciding whether to allow passengers to use phones before takeoff, several airlines conducted ground tests to see if cellphones would interfere with systems. At American Airlines, people dialed cellphones from out-of-service planes parked at various airports. “They found no interaction with the aircraft instruments on any aircraft type,” said Tim Smith, a spokesman for American. As a result, the airline like most others, decided to permit the use of phones at the gate before departure and after landing. Newer airplanes have more sophisticated protection against electromagnetic interference. “The technical advancements for wireless devices and portable electronic equipment is so rapid, it changes every week,” said Doug Hughes, an electrical engineer and air safety investigator. “The advances in airplanes take 20 years.” Still, Mr. Strauss said the deterioration of planes and devices over time had not been taken into account. “A plane is designed to the right specs, but nobody goes back and checks if it is still robust,” he said. “Then there are the outliers — a cellphone that’s been dropped and abused, or a battery that puts out more than it’s supposed to, and avionics that are more susceptible to interference because gaskets have failed. And boom, that’s where you get interference. It would be a perfect storm that would combine to create an aviation accident.”
Tiny Flower Saved from Extinction T By JOHN M. BRODER
he Maguire daisy, a dime-size wildflower found in sandstone canyons and atop mesas in Utah, was removed from the endangered species list this week after a 25-year effort to rescue it from extinction, the Interior Department said. When the daisy was listed as endangered in 1985, there were only se-
ven known plants still living. Today, biologists estimate there are 163,000 plants in 10 populations in three counties in southeastern Utah. The daisy is the 21st species removed from the endangered species list, including such species as the bald Eagle, the Virginia northern flying squirrel, the American peregrine falcon, the red kangaroo and the North Pacific population of the gray whale. “The delisting of the Maguire daisy shows that the Endangered Species Act is an effective tool not only to save species from the brink of extinction but also to recover them to healthy populations,” Tom Strickland, assistant Interior secretary for fish and wildlife and parks, said in a statement. The daisy, or Erigeron maguirei, which is a member of the sunflower family, is a perennial herb with white or pink flowers. It is generally found at elevations of 5,200 to 8,600 feet in Navajo sandstone formations.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
39 SCIENCE / TECH
Conspiracies Don’t Kill Birds. People, However, Do. By LESLIE KAUFMAN
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t the beginning of this month when about 5,000 red-winged blackbirds fell from the sky in one night in Arkansas, biologists were called on to put a damper on public speculation about pesticides and secret military tests by reminding everyone how many birds there are and how many die. They often do so as a result of human activity, but in far more mundane and dispiriting ways than conspiracy buffs might imagine. “Five billion birds die in the U.S. every year,” said Melanie Driscoll, a biologist and director of bird conservation for the Gulf of Mexico and Mississippi Flyway for the National Audubon Society. That means that on average, 13.7 million birds die in this country every day. This number, while lar-
ge, needs to be put into context. The federal Fish and Wildlife Service estimates that a minimum of 10 billion birds breed in the United States every year and that as many as 20 billion may be in the country during the fall migratory season. Even without humans, tens of millions of birds would be lost each year to natural predators and natural accidents — millions of fledglings die during their first attempts at flight. But according to the Fish and Wildlife Service, people have severely complicated the task of survival. Although mortality rates are difficult to calculate for certain, using modeling and other methods like extrapolation from local research findings, the government has come up with estimates of how many birds die from various causes in the United States. Some of the biggest death traps are surprising.
Almost everyone has an experience with a pet proudly bringing home a songbird in its jaws. Nationally, domestic and feral cats kill hundreds of millions of birds each year, according to the government. One study done in Wisconsin found that domestic rural cats alone (thus excluding a large number of suburban and urban cats) killed roughly 39 million birds a year. Pesticides kill 72 million birds directly, but an unknown and probably larger number ingest the poisons and die later unseen. Orphaned chicks also go uncounted. And then there is flying into objects, which is most likely what killed the birds in Arkansas. The government estimates that strikes against building Wwindows alone account for anywhere from 97 million to nearly 976 million bird deaths a year. Cars kill another 60 million or so. High-tension transmission and power distribution lines are also deadly obstacles. Extrapolating from European studies, the Fish and Wildlife Service estimates 174 million birds die each year by flying into these wires. None of these numbers take into account the largest killer of birds in America: loss of habitat to development. All of this explains why about a quarter of the 836 species of birds protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act are in serious decline. For a third of the other birds there is not enough information to be sure about the health of their populations. Of course, poisons and electric wires are not as exciting to think about as secret government plots, but Ms. Driscoll says it is time we pay attention to them anyway. “It is the story that the press and the public have largely missed, and it is important, and timely, given the current concern,” she said. “And it is what gets those of us who work in bird conservation motivated every day to try to deal with human-induced changes to our habitats, our landscape and our very climate.”
Four-Legged Assistants Sniff Out Wildlife Data By SINDYA N. BHANOO
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cat-sniffing dogs are becoming increasingly popular among scientists as assistants that can gather data about a wildlife area. The dogs can be trained to sniff out the scat of other animals and to help researchers estimate population statistics. But according to new research in The Journal of Wildlife Management, a dog’s ability to sniff scat could vary based on a number of factors, including air temperature and precipitation. “We really wanted to understand what some of the factors were that limit dogs’ abilities to detect,” said Sarah Reed, the study’s lead author and a conservation biologist at Colorado State University. The study was part of her graduate research at the University of California, Berkeley. Dr. Reed and her colleagues found that pre-
cipitation had the greatest influence on the dogs’ Alice Whitelaw, co-founder of Working Dogs for abilities. Dogs are more likely to find scat between Conservation, and Camas, a dog trained to sniff out the scat of target species. May and October, when it is drier, since the scat has a chance to accumulate. Air temperature also seems to have an effect, since dogs can’t smell as well when they are overheated and panting. The exact effect depends on a specific dog’s heat tolerance, Dr. Reed said. She hopes that other researchers will create calibration tools that measure how optimally their detection dogs perform in different conditions. Regardless of their handicaps, dogs are much more capable than humans at scoping out scat. Trained dogs can detect scat up to 33 feet away about 75 percent of the time, the researchers found. Humans, on the other hand, can see scat only within three to five feet.
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January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
The San Juan Weekly
Leader Blames Airport Officials After Bloody Attacks By ELLEN BARRY and CLIFFORD J. LEVY
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resident Dmitri A. Medvedev on Tuesday sharply questioned security precautions at the airport on Moscow that was hit by a suicide bomber on Monday, saying that officials must be held responsible for failing to prevent the devastating attack. “What occurred shows that there were violations in providing security,” Mr. Medvedev said in comments released by the Kremlin. “Such a quantity of explosive material that was carried in or brought in — that’s not so easy to do. We must hold responsible those who have ties to the company that makes decisions, the management of the airport.” Speaking later in the day, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin vowed “retribution” for the attack. The suicide bombing on Monday at Moscow’s busiest airport, Domodedovo, killed at least 35 people, injured scores of others and injected new pain into a country already split along ethnic lines. Mr. Medvedev did not specify which security arrangements at the airport he believed were lacking. The bomb went off in the international arrivals area, where people wait to pick up passengers — a location that is often unsecured in many major airports around the world. Security experts consider arrivals areas to be so-called soft targets because they are less heavily policed. In the past, people entering such zones in Russian airports have occasionally had to pass through metal detectors but such checks have generally been sporadic. After the attack on Monday, the authorities immediately set up new inspections. There was no indication on Tuesday morning of who was behind the blast. Past terrorist attacks have been traced to militants in the North Caucasus, a predominantly Muslim region in the south of Russia. And the city was on edge even before the attacks, after ethnic Russian nationalists lashed out violently at migrants from the troubled region in mid-December. The attack inflicted a deep injury on Moscow’s image just as Mr. Medvedev prepared to woo foreign investors at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The bomb — set off in the international arrivals hall of Domodedovo, the city’s glittering showcase airport — killed and wounded visitors from the West, something that has occurred very rarely in previous terrorist attacks. But Russians were too shocked Monday night to focus on the implications. The smoke was so thick after the blast that it was hard to count the dead. Hours later arriving passengers stepped into the hall to see the wounded still being loaded onto stretchers. Ambulances sped away crowded with three or four patients apiece, bleeding heavily from shrapnel wounds. By nightfall, officials reported that at least 35 people had been killed and 168 wounded. “They pushed them away on baggage carts,” said Aleksei Spiridonov, who works at an auto rental booth a few yards from the site of the blast. “They were wheeling them out on whatever they could find.” Russia’s leaders have struggled, with a good measure of success, to keep militants from the North Caucasus from striking in the heartland. In March, two female suicide bombers detonated themselves on the city’s subway, killing more than 40 people — an act that the Chechen militant leader Doku Umarov claimed to have ordered, promising Russians that “the war will come to your streets.” Mr. Umarov’s organization also took responsibility for the bombing of a luxury train, the Nevsky Express, which killed 28 in November 2009. Monday’s attack could also have political implications, coming after a period of tentative liberalization. In the past, such attacks have strengthened the influence of Russian se-
curity forces and Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin by firmly establishing security as the country’s top priority. The bomber apparently entered the international arrivals terminal from outside, advancing to the cordon where taxi drivers and relatives wait to greet arriving passengers. The area is open to the general public, said Yelena Galanova, an airport spokeswoman, according to the Interfax news service. Artyom Zhilenkov, a taxi driver who was in that crowd, said he was standing about 10 yards from a short, dark-complexioned man with a suitcase — the bomber, he believes. Authorities said the blast occurred at 4:32 p.m. local time, as passengers from Italy, Tajikistan and Germany emerged from customs. “How did I manage to save myself? I don’t know,” Mr. Zhilenkov said, his track suit dotted with blood and small ragged holes. “The people behind me on my left and right were blown apart. Maybe because of that.” Another witness, Yuri, who did not give his last name, told Russia’s state-run First Channel TV that the shock wave was strong enough to throw him to the floor and blow his hat away. After that, the hall filled with thick smoke and part of the ceiling collapsed, said Mr. Spiridonov, the auto rental worker. Thirty-one people died at the site of the explosion, one in an ambulance and three in hospitals, the Health Ministry said. Among the wounded were French and Italian citizens, according to the Health and Social Development Ministry. At least two Britons died, said a spokesman for the Investigative Committee. Witnesses said many of the victims suffered terrible wounds to their faces, limbs and bodies. “One person came out and fell,” Olga Yaholnikova told RenTV television. “And there was a man with half of his body torn away.” Mr. Medvedev, who was scheduled to give a keynote address in Davos on Wednesday, postponed his trip to manage the aftermath of the attack. He gave brief televised remarks almost immediately, telling Russians that he believed
the blast was a terrorist act. Mr. Putin also appeared on television on Monday night, gravely ordering the health minister to provide aid to all the bombing victims, visiting clinics one by one, if necessary, he said. In Washington, President Obama condemned what he called an “outrageous act of terrorism” and offered assistance. The State Department said it had not received confirmation of any Americans who had been killed or wounded at the airport. The airport, southeast of the capital, is Russia’s largest airline hub, with more than 20 million passengers passing through last year. Domodedovo was the site of a previous terror attack, in August 2004, when two Chechen suicide bombers boarded separate planes there, killing themselves and 88 others in midair. The attack exposed holes in security, since the two bombers, both women, had been detained shortly before boarding, but were released by a police supervisor. The authorities have since worked to tighten security. The airport remained open on Monday evening, and passengers continued to flow through the hall where the bomb had exploded. Gerald Zapf, who landed shortly after the blast, said his airplane circled the airport several times before landing, and passengers were forced to wait for some time before they could debark. When they finally made it into the airport, he said, he and the other passengers were led past sheets of blue plastic, which hid signs of the carnage. Meanwhile, transportation officials had ordered “100 percent control of passengers and visitors and their baggage, including their hand baggage,” resulting in long, snaking lines and shoving matches at the airport’s entrances. Monday’s explosion pointed to the continuing fascination with air travel for militants and the difficulty of carrying out an attack aboard a jet, said Stephen A. Baker, a former official with the Department of Homeland Security. “They’d like to be bombing planes and they can’t, so they’re bombing airports,” he said.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
41
Can Europe Be Saved? By PAUL KRUGMAN
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HERE’S SOMETHING peculiarly apt about the fact that the current European crisis began in Greece. For Europe’s woes have all the aspects of a classical Greek tragedy, in which a man of noble character is undone by the fatal flaw of hubris. Not long ago Europeans could, with considerable justification, say that the current economic crisis was actually demonstrating the advantages of their economic and social model. Like the United States, Europe suffered a severe slump in the wake of the global financial meltdown; but the human costs of that slump seemed far less in Europe than in America. In much of Europe, rules governing worker firing helped limit job loss, while strong social-welfare programs ensured that even the jobless retained their health care and received a basic income. Europe’s gross domestic product might have fallen as much as ours, but the Europeans weren’t suffering anything like the same amount of misery. And the truth is that they still aren’t. Yet Europe is in deep crisis — because its proudest achievement, the single currency adopted by most European nations, is now in danger. More than that, it’s looking increasingly like a trap. Ireland, hailed as the Celtic Tiger not so long ago, is now struggling to avoid bankruptcy. Spain, a booming economy until recent years, now has 20 percent unemployment and faces the prospect of years of painful, grinding deflation. The tragedy of the Euromess is that the creation of the euro was supposed to be the finest moment in a grand and noble undertaking: the generations-long effort to bring peace, democracy and shared prosperity to a once and frequently war-torn continent. But the architects of the euro, caught up in their project’s sweep and romance, chose to ignore the mundane difficulties a shared
currency would predictably encounter — to ignore warnings, which were issued right from the beginning, that Europe lacked the institutions needed to make a common currency workable. Instead, they engaged in magical thinking, acting as if the nobility of their mission transcended such concerns. The result is a tragedy not only for Europe but also for the world, for which Europe is a crucial role model. The Europeans have shown us that peace and unity can be brought to a region with a history of violence, and in the process they have created perhaps the most decent societies in human history, combining democracy and human rights with a level of individual economic security that America comes nowhere close to matching. These achievements are now in the process of being tarnished, as the European dream turns into a nightmare for all too many people. How did that happen? THE ROAD TO THE EURO It all began with coal and steel. On May 9, 1950 — a date whose anniversary is now celebrated as Europe Day — Robert Schuman, the French foreign minister, proposed that his nation and West Germany pool their coal and steel production. That may sound prosaic, but Schuman declared that it was much more than just a business deal. For one thing, the new Coal and Steel Community would make any future war between Germany and France “not merely unthinkable, but materially impossible.” And it would be a first step on the road to a “federation of Europe,” to be achieved step by step via “concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.” That is, economic measures would both serve mundane ends and promote political unity. The Coal and Steel Community eventually evolved into a customs union within which all goods were freely traded. Then, as democracy spread within Europe, so did Europe’s unifying economic institutions.
Greece, Spain and Portugal were brought in after the fall of their dictatorships; Eastern Europe after the fall of Communism. In the 1980s and ’90s this “widening” was accompanied by “deepening,” as Europe set about removing many of the remaining obstacles to full economic integration. (Eurospeak is a distinctive dialect, sometimes hard to understand without subtitles.) Borders were opened; freedom of personal movement was guaranteed; and product, safety and food regulations were harmonized, a process immortalized by the Eurosausage episode of the TV show “Yes Minister,” in which the minister in question is told that under new European rules, the traditional British sausage no longer qualifies as a sausage and must be renamed the Emulsified High-Fat Offal Tube. (Just to be clear, this happened only on TV.) The creation of the euro was proclaimed the logical next step in this process. Once again, economic growth would be fostered with actions that also reinforced European unity. The advantages of a single European currency were obvious. No more need to change money when you arrived in another country; no more uncertainty on the part of importers about what a contract would actually end up costing or on the part of exporters about what promised payment would actually be worth. Meanwhile, the shared currency would strengthen the sense of European unity. What could go wrong? The answer, unfortunately, was that currency unions have costs as well as benefits. And the case for a single European currency was much weaker than the case for a single European market — a fact that European leaders chose to ignore. THE (UNEASY) CASE FOR MONETARY UNION International monetary economics is, not surprisingly, an area of frequent disputes. As it happens, however, these disputes don’t line up across the usual ideological divide. The hard right often favors hard money — preferably a gold standard — but left-leaning European politicians have been enthusiastic proponents of the euro. Liberal American economists, myself included, tend to favor freely floating national curren-
cies that leave more scope for activist economic policies — in particular, cutting interest rates and increasing the money supply to fight recessions. Yet the classic argument for flexible exchange rates was made by none other than Milton Friedman. The case for a transnational currency is, as we’ve already seen, obvious: it makes doing business easier. Before the euro was introduced, it was really anybody’s guess how much this ultimately mattered: there were relatively few examples of countries using other nations’ currencies. For what it was worth, statistical analysis suggested that adopting a common currency had big effects on trade, which suggested in turn large economic gains. Unfortunately, this optimistic assessment hasn’t held up very well since the euro was created: the best estimates now indicate that trade among euro nations is only 10 or 15 percent larger than it would have been otherwise. That’s not a trivial number, but neither is it transformative. Still, there are obviously benefits from a currency union. It’s just that there’s a downside, too: by giving up its own currency, a country also gives up economic flexibility. Imagine that you’re a country that, like Spain today, recently saw wages and prices driven up by a housing boom, which then went bust. Now you need to get those costs back down. But getting wages and prices to fall is tough: nobody wants to be the first to take a pay cut, especially without some assurance that prices will come down, too. Two years of intense suffering have brought Irish wages down to some extent, although Spain and Greece have barely begun the process. It’s a nasty affair, and as we’ll see later, cutting wages when you’re awash in debt creates new problems. If you still have your own currency, however, you wouldn’t have to go through the protracted pain of cutting wages: you could just devalue your currency — reduce its value in terms of other currencies — and you would effect a de facto wage cut. Won’t workers reject de facto wage cuts via devaluation just as much as expli-
Continues on page 42
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Comes from page 41 cit cuts in their paychecks? Historical experience says no. In the current crisis, it took Ireland two years of severe unemployment to achieve about a 5 percent reduction in average wages. But in 1993 a devaluation of the Irish punt brought an instant 10 percent reduction in Irish wages measured in German currency. Why the difference? Back in 1953, Milton Friedman offered an analogy: daylight saving time. It makes a lot of sense for businesses to open later during the winter months, yet it’s hard for any individual business to change its hours: if you operate from 10 to 6 when everyone else is operating 9 to 5, you’ll be out of sync. By requiring that everyone shift clocks back in the fall and forward in the spring, daylight saving time obviates this coordination problem. Similarly, Friedman argued, adjusting your currency’s value solves the coordination problem when wages and prices are out of line, sidestepping the unwillingness of workers to be the first to take pay cuts. So while there are benefits of a common currency, there are also important potential advantages to keeping your own currency. And the terms of this trade-off depend on underlying conditions. On one side, the benefits of a shared currency depend on how much business would be affected. I think of this as the Iceland-Brooklyn issue. Iceland, with only 320,000 people, has its own currency — and that fact has given it valuable room for maneuver. So why isn’t Brooklyn, with roughly eight times Iceland’s population, an even better candidate for an independent currency? The answer is that Brooklyn, located as it is in the middle of metro New York rather than in the middle of the Atlantic, has an economy deeply enmeshed with those of neighboring boroughs. And Brooklyn residents would pay a large price if they had to change currencies every time they did business in Manhattan or Queens. So countries that do a lot of business with one another may have a lot to gain from a currency union. On the other hand, as Friedman poin-
ted out, forming a currency union means sacrificing flexibility. How serious is this loss? That depends. Let’s consider what may at first seem like an odd comparison between two small, troubled economies. Climate, scenery and history aside, the nation of Ireland and the state of Nevada have much in common. Both are small economies of a few million people highly dependent on selling goods and services to their neighbors. (Nevada’s neighbors are other U.S. states, Ireland’s other European nations, but the economic implications are much the same.) Both were boom economies for most of the past decade. Both had huge housing bubbles, which burst painfully. Both are now suffering roughly 14 percent unemployment. And both are members of larger currency unions: Ireland is part of the euro zone, Nevada part of the dollar zone, otherwise known as the United States of America. But Nevada’s situation is much less desperate than Ireland’s. First of all, the fiscal side of the crisis is less serious in Nevada. It’s true that budgets in both Ireland and Nevada have been hit extremely hard by the slump. But much of the spending Nevada residents depend on comes from federal, not state, programs.
In particular, retirees who moved to Nevada for the sunshine don’t have to worry that the state’s reduced tax take will endanger their Social Security checks or their Medicare coverage. In Ireland, by contrast, both pensions and health spending are on the cutting block. Also, Nevada, unlike Ireland, doesn’t have to worry about the cost of bank bailouts, not because the state has avoided large loan losses but because those losses, for the most part, aren’t Nevada’s problem. Thus Nevada accounts for a disproportionate share of the losses incurred by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage companies — losses that, like Social Security and Medicare payments, will be covered by Washington, not Carson City. And there’s one more advantage to being a U.S. state: it’s likely that Nevada’s unemployment problem will be greatly alleviated over the next few years by outmigration, so that even if the lost jobs don’t come back, there will be fewer workers chasing the jobs that remain. Ireland will, to some extent, avail itself of the same safety valve, as Irish citizens leave in search of work elsewhere and workers who came to Ireland during the boom years depart. But Americans are extremely mobile; if historical patterns are any guide, emigration will bring Nevada’s unemployment rate back in line with the U.S. average within a few years, even if job growth in Nevada continues to lag behind growth in the nation as a whole. Over all, then, even as both Ireland and Nevada have been especially hard-luck cases within their respective currency zones, Nevada’s medium-term prospects look much better. What does this have to do with the case for or against the euro? Well, when the single European currency was first proposed, an obvious question was whether it would work as well as the dollar does here in America. And the answer, clearly, was no — for exactly the reasons the IrelandNevada comparison illustrates. Europe isn’t fiscally integrated: German taxpayers don’t automatically pick up part of the tab
The San Juan Weekly for Greek pensions or Irish bank bailouts. And while Europeans have the legal right to move freely in search of jobs, in practice imperfect cultural integration — above all, the lack of a common language — makes workers less geographically mobile than their American counterparts. And now you see why many American (and some British) economists have always been skeptical about the euro project. U.S.based economists had long emphasized the importance of certain preconditions for currency union — most famously, Robert Mundell of Columbia stressed the importance of labor mobility, while Peter Kenen, my colleague at Princeton, emphasized the importance of fiscal integration. America, we know, has a currency union that works, and we know why it works: because it coincides with a nation — a nation with a big central government, a common language and a shared culture. Europe has none of these things, which from the beginning made the prospects of a single currency dubious. These observations aren’t new: everything I’ve just said was well known by 1992, when the Maastricht Treaty set the euro project in motion. So why did the project proceed? Because the idea of the euro had gripped the imagination of European elites. Except in Britain, where Gordon Brown persuaded Tony Blair not to join, political leaders throughout Europe were caught up in the romance of the project, to such an extent that anyone who expressed skepticism was considered outside the mainstream. Back in the ’90s, people who were present told me that staff members at the European Commission were initially instructed to prepare reports on the costs and benefits of a single currency — but that after their superiors got a look at some preliminary work, those instructions were altered: they were told to prepare reports just on the benefits. To be fair, when I’ve told that story to others who were senior officials at the time, they’ve disputed that — but whoever’s version is right, the fact that some people were making such a claim captures the spirit of the time. The euro, then, would proceed. And for a while, everything seemed to go well. EUROPHORIA, EUROCRISIS The euro officially came into existence on Jan. 1, 1999. At first it was a virtual currency: bank accounts and electronic transfers were denominated in euros, but people still had francs, marks and lira (now considered denominations of the euro) in their wallets. Three years later, the final transition was made, and the euro became Europe’s money. The transition was smooth: A.T.M.’s and cash registers were converted swiftly and with few glitches. The euro quickly became a major international currency: the euro bond market soon came to rival the dollar bond market; euro bank notes began circulating around the world. And the creation of the euro instilled a new sense of confidence, especially in those European countries that had historically been considered investment risks. Only later did it become apparent that this surge of confidence was
The San Juan Weekly bait for a dangerous trap. Greece, with its long history of debt defaults and bouts of high inflation, was the most striking example. Until the late 1990s, Greece’s fiscal history was reflected in its bond yields: investors would buy bonds issued by the Greek government only if they paid much higher interest than bonds issued by governments perceived as safe bets, like those by Germany. As the euro’s debut approached, however, the risk premium on Greek bonds melted away. After all, the thinking went, Greek debt would soon be immune from the dangers of inflation: the European Central Bank would see to that. And it wasn’t possible to imagine any member of the newly minted monetary union going bankrupt, was it? Indeed, by the middle of the 2000s just about all fear of country-specific fiscal woes had vanished from the European scene. Greek bonds, Irish bonds, Spanish bonds, Portuguese bonds — they all traded as if they were as safe as German bonds. The aura of confidence extended even to countries that weren’t on the euro yet but were expected to join in the near future: by 2005, Latvia, which at that point hoped to adopt the euro by 2008, was able to borrow almost as cheaply as Ireland. (Latvia’s switch to the euro has been put off for now, although neighboring Estonia joined on Jan. 1.) As interest rates converged across Europe, the formerly high-interest-rate countries went, predictably, on a borrowing spree. (This borrowing spree was, it’s worth noting, largely financed by banks in Germany and other traditionally low-interestrate countries; that’s why the current debt problems of the European periphery are also a big problem for the European banking system as a whole.) In Greece it was largely the government that ran up big debts. But elsewhere, private players were the big borrowers. Ireland, as I’ve already noted, had a huge real estate boom: home prices rose 180 percent from 1998, just before the euro was introduced, to 2007. Prices in Spain rose almost as much. There were booms in those not-yet-euro nations, too: money flooded into Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Romania. It was a heady time, and not only for the borrowers. In the late 1990s, Germany’s economy was depressed as a result of low demand from domestic consumers. But it recovered in the decade that followed, thanks to an export boom driven by its European neighbors’ spending sprees. Everything, in short, seemed to be going swimmingly: the euro was pronounced a great success. Then the bubble burst. You still hear people talking about the global economic crisis of 2008 as if it were something made in America. But Europe deserves equal billing. This was, if you like, a North Atlantic crisis, with not much to choose between the messes of the Old World and the New. We had our subprime borrowers, who either chose to take on or were misled into taking on mortgages too big for their incomes; they had their peripheral economies, which similarly borrowed much more than they could really afford to pay back. In
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both cases, real estate bubbles temporarily masked the underlying unsustainability of the borrowing: as long as housing prices kept rising, borrowers could always pay back previous loans with more money borrowed against their properties. Sooner or later, however, the music would stop. Both sides of the Atlantic were accidents waiting to happen. In Europe, the first round of damage came from the collapse of those real estate bubbles, which devastated employment in the peripheral economies. In 2007, construction accounted for 13 percent of total employment in both Spain and Ireland, more than twice as much as in the United States. So when the building booms came to a screeching halt, employment crashed. Overall employment fell 10 percent in Spain and 14 percent in Ireland; the Irish situation would be the equivalent of losing almost 20 million jobs here. But that was only the beginning. In late 2009, as much of the world was emerging from financial crisis, the European crisis entered a new phase. First Greece, then Ireland, then Spain and Portugal suffered drastic losses in investor confidence and hence a significant rise in borrowing costs. Why? In Greece the story is straightforward: the government behaved irresponsibly, lied about it and got caught. During the years of easy borrowing, Greece’s conservative government ran up a lot of debt — more than it admitted. When the government changed hands in 2009, the accounting fictions came to light; suddenly it was revealed that Greece had both a much bigger deficit and substantially more debt than anyone had realized. Investors, understandably, took flight. But Greece is actually an unrepresentative case. Just a few years ago Spain, by far the largest of the crisis economies, was a model European citizen, with a balanced budget and public debt only about half as large, as a percentage of G.D.P., as that of Germany. The same was true for Ireland. So what went wrong? First, there was a large direct fiscal hit from the slump. Revenue plunged in both Spain and Ireland, in part because tax receipts depended heavily on real estate transactions. Meanwhile, as unemployment soared, so did the cost of unemployment benefits — remember, these are European welfare states, which have much more extensive programs to shield their citizens from misfortune than we do. As a result, both Spain and Ireland went from budget surpluses on the eve of the crisis to huge budget deficits by 2009. Then there were the costs of financial clean-up. These have been especially crippling in Ireland, where banks ran wild in the boom years (and were allowed to do so thanks to close personal and financial ties with government officials). When the bubble burst, the solvency of Irish banks was immediately suspect. In an attempt to avert a massive run on the financial system, Ireland’s government guaranteed all bank debts — saddling the government itself with those debts, bringing its own solvency into question. Big Spanish banks were well
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regulated by comparison, but there was and is a great deal of nervousness about the status of smaller savings banks and concern about how much the Spanish government will have to spend to keep these banks from collapsing. All of this helps explain why lenders have lost faith in peripheral European economies. Still, there are other nations — in particular, both the United States and Britain — that have been running deficits that, as a percentage of G.D.P., are comparable to the deficits in Spain and Ireland. Yet they haven’t suffered a comparable loss of lender confidence. What is different about the euro countries? One possible answer is “nothing”: maybe one of these days we’ll wake up and find that the markets are shunning America, just as they’re shunning Greece. But the real answer is probably more systemic: it’s the euro itself that makes Spain and Ireland so vulnerable. For membership in the euro means that these countries have to deflate their way back to competitiveness, with all the pain that implies. The trouble with deflation isn’t just the coordination problem Milton Friedman highlighted, in which it’s hard to get wages and prices down when everyone wants someone else to move first. Even when countries successfully drive down wages, which is now happening in all the euro-crisis countries, they run into another problem: incomes are falling, but debt is not. As the American economist Irving Fisher pointed out almost 80 years ago, the collision between deflating incomes and unchanged debt can greatly worsen economic downturns. Suppose the economy slumps, for whatever reason: spending falls and so do prices and wages. But debts do not, so debtors have to meet the same obligations with a smaller income; to do this, they have to cut spending even more, further depressing the economy. The way to avoid this vicious circle, Fisher said, was monetary expansion that heads off deflation. And in America and Britain, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, respectively, are trying to do just that. But Greece, Spain and Ireland don’t have that option — they don’t
even have their own monies, and in any case they need deflation to get their costs in line. And so there’s a crisis. Over the course of the past year or so, first Greece, then Ireland, became caught up in a vicious financial circle: as potential lenders lost confidence, the interest rates that they had to pay on the debt rose, undermining future prospects, leading to a further loss of confidence and even higher interest rates. Stronger European nations averted an immediate implosion only by providing Greece and Ireland with emergency credit lines, letting them bypass private markets for the time being. But how is this all going to work out? FOUR EUROPEAN PLOTLINES Some economists, myself included, look at Europe’s woes and have the feeling that we’ve seen this movie before, a decade ago on another continent — specifically, in Argentina. Unlike Spain or Greece, Argentina never gave up its own currency, but in 1991 it did the next best thing: it rigidly pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar, establishing a “currency board” in which each peso in circulation was backed by a dollar in reserves. This was supposed to prevent any return to Argentina’s old habit of covering its deficits by printing money. And for much of the 1990s, Argentina was rewarded with much lower interest rates and large inflows of foreign capital. Eventually, however, Argentina slid into a persistent recession and lost investor confidence. Argentina’s government tried to restore that confidence through rigorous fiscal orthodoxy, slashing spending and raising taxes. To buy time for austerity to have a positive effect, Argentina sought and received large loans from the International Monetary Fund — in much the same way that Greece and Ireland have sought emergency loans from their neighbors. But the persistent decline of the Argentine economy, combined with deflation, frustrated the government’s efforts, even as high unemployment led to growing unrest.
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44 Comes from page 43 By early 2002, after angry demonstrations and a run on the banks, it had all fallen apart. The link between the peso and the dollar collapsed, with the peso plunging; meanwhile, Argentina defaulted on its debts, eventually paying only about 35 cents on the dollar. It’s hard to avoid the suspicion that something similar may be in the cards for one or more of Europe’s problem economies. After all, the policies now being undertaken by the crisis countries are, qualitatively at least, very similar to those Argentina tried in its desperate effort to save the peso-dollar link: harsh fiscal austerity in an effort to regain the market’s confidence, backed in Greece and Ireland by official loans intended to buy time until private lenders regain confidence. And if an Argentine-style outcome is the end of the line, it will be a terrible blow to the euro project. Is that what’s going to happen? Not necessarily. As I see it, there are four ways the European crisis could play out (and it may play out differently in different countries). Call them toughing it out; debt restructuring; full Argentina; and revived Europeanism. Toughing it out: Troubled European economies could, conceivably, reassure creditors by showing sufficient willingness to endure pain and thereby avoid either default or devaluation. The role models here are the Baltic nations: Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. These countries are small and poor by European standards; they want very badly to gain the long-term advantages they believe will accrue from joining the euro and becoming part of a greater Europe. And so they have been willing to endure very harsh fiscal austerity while wages gradually come down in the hope of restoring competitiveness — a process known in Eurospeak as “internal devaluation.” Have these policies been successful? It depends on how you define “success.” The Baltic nations have, to some extent, succeeded in reassuring markets, which now consider them less risky than Ireland, let alone Greece. Meanwhile, wages have come down, declining 15 percent in Latvia and more than 10 percent in Lithuania and Estonia. All of this has, however, come at immense cost: the Baltics have experienced Depression-level declines in output and employment. It’s true that they’re now growing again, but all indications are that it will be many years before they make up the lost ground. It says something about the current state of Europe that many officials regard the Baltics as a success story. I find myself quoting Tacitus: “They make a desert and call it peace” — or, in this case, adjustment. Still, this is one way the euro zone could survive intact. Debt restructuring: At the time of writing, Irish 10-year bonds were yielding about 9 percent, while Greek 10-years were yielding 12½ percent. At the same time, German 10-years — which, like Irish and Greek bonds, are denominated in euros — were yielding less than 3 percent. The message
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from the markets was clear: investors don’t expect Greece and Ireland to pay their debts in full. They are, in other words, expecting some kind of debt restructuring, like the restructuring that reduced Argentina’s debt by two-thirds. Such a debt restructuring would by no means end a troubled economy’s pain. Take Greece: even if the government were to repudiate all its debt, it would still have to slash spending and raise taxes to balance its budget, and it would still have to suffer the pain of deflation. But a debt restructuring could bring the vicious circle of falling confidence and rising interest costs to an end, potentially making internal devaluation a workable if brutal strategy. Frankly, I find it hard to see how Greece can avoid a debt restructuring, and Ireland isn’t much better. The real question is whether such restructurings will spread to Spain and — the truly frightening prospect — to Belgium and Italy, which are heavily indebted but have so far managed to avoid a serious crisis of confidence. Full Argentina: Argentina didn’t simply default on its foreign debt; it also abandoned its link to the dollar, allowing the peso’s value to fall by more than two-thirds. And this devaluation worked: from 2003 onward, Argentina experienced a rapid export-led economic rebound. The European country that has come closest to doing an Argentina is Iceland, whose bankers had run up foreign debts that were many times its national income. Unlike Ireland, which tried to salvage its banks by guaranteeing their debts, the Icelandic government forced its banks’ foreign creditors to take losses, thereby limiting its debt burden. And by letting its banks default, the country took a lot of foreign debt off its national books. At the same time, Iceland took advantage of the fact that it had not joined the euro and still had its own currency. It soon became more competitive by letting its currency drop sharply against other currencies, including the euro. Iceland’s wages and prices quickly fell about 40 percent relative to those of its trading partners, sparking a rise in exports and fall in imports that helped offset the blow from the banking collapse. The combination of default and devaluation has helped Iceland limit the damage from its banking disaster. In fact, in terms of employment and output, Iceland has done somewhat better than Ireland and much better than the Baltic nations. So will one or more troubled European nations go down the same path? To do so, they would have to overcome a big obstacle: the fact that, unlike Iceland, they no longer have their own currencies. As Barry Eichengreen of Berkeley pointed out in an influential 2007 analysis, any euro-zone country that even hinted at leaving the currency would trigger a devastating run on its banks, as depositors rushed to move their funds to safer locales. And Eichengreen concluded that this “procedural” obstacle to exit made the euro irreversible. But Argentina’s peg to the dollar was also supposed to be irreversible, and for much the same reason. What made deva-
luation possible, in the end, was the fact that there was a run on the banks despite the government’s insistence that one peso would always be worth one dollar. This run forced the Argentine government to limit withdrawals, and once these limits were in place, it was possible to change the peso’s value without setting off a second run. Nothing like that has happened in Europe — yet. But it’s certainly within the realm of possibility, especially as the pain of austerity and internal devaluation drags on. Revived Europeanism: The preceding three scenarios were grim. Is there any hope of an outcome less grim? To the extent that there is, it would have to involve taking further major steps toward that “European federation” Robert Schuman wanted 60 years ago. In early December, Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, and Giulio Tremonti, Italy’s finance minister, created a storm with a proposal to create “E-bonds,” which would be issued by a European debt agency at the behest of individual European countries. Since these bonds would be guaranteed by the European Union as a whole, they would offer a way for troubled economies to avoid vicious circles of falling confidence and rising borrowing costs. On the other hand, they would potentially put governments on the hook for one another’s debts — a point that furious German officials were quick to make. The Germans are adamant that Europe must not become a “transfer union,” in which stronger governments and nations routinely provide aid to weaker. Yet as the earlier Ireland-Nevada comparison shows, the United States works as a currency union in large part precisely because it is also a transfer union, in which states that haven’t gone bust support those that have. And it’s hard to see how the euro can work unless Europe finds a way to accomplish something similar. Nobody is yet proposing that Europe move to anything resembling U.S. fiscal integration; the Juncker-Tremonti plan would be at best a small step in that direction. But Europe doesn’t seem ready to take even that modest step. OUT OF MANY, ONE? For now, the plan in Europe is to have everyone tough it out — in effect, for Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to emulate Latvia and Estonia. That was the clear
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verdict of the most recent meeting of the European Council, at which Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, essentially got everything she wanted. Governments that can’t borrow on the private market will receive loans from the rest of Europe — but only on stiff terms: people talk about Ireland getting a “bailout,” but it has to pay almost 6 percent interest on that emergency loan. There will be no E-bonds; there will be no transfer union. Even if this eventually works in the sense that internal devaluation has worked in the Baltics — that is, in the narrow sense that Europe’s troubled economies avoid default and devaluation — it will be an ugly process, leaving much of Europe deeply depressed for years to come. There will be political repercussions too, as the European public sees the continent’s institutions as being — depending on where they sit — either in the business of bailing out deadbeats or acting as agents of heartless bill collectors. Nor can the rest of the world look on smugly at Europe’s woes. Taken as a whole, the European Union, not the United States, is the world’s largest economy; the European Union is fully coequal with America in the running of the global trading system; Europe is the world’s most important source of foreign aid; and Europe is, whatever some Americans may think, a crucial partner in the fight against terrorism. A troubled Europe is bad for everyone else. In any case, the odds are that the current tough-it-out strategy won’t work even in the narrow sense of avoiding default and devaluation — and the fact that it won’t work will become obvious sooner rather than later. At that point, Europe’s stronger nations will have to make a choice. It has been 60 years since the Schuman declaration started Europe on the road to greater unity. Until now the journey along that road, however slow, has always been in the right direction. But that will no longer be true if the euro project fails. A failed euro wouldn’t send Europe back to the days of minefields and barbed wire — but it would represent a possibly irreversible blow to hopes of true European federation. So will Europe’s strong nations let that happen? Or will they accept the responsibility, and possibly the cost, of being their neighbors’ keepers? The whole world is waiting for the answer.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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Israeli Test on Worm Called Crucial in Iran Nuclear Delay By WILLIAM J. BROAD, JOHN MARKOFF and DAVID E. SANGER
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his article is by William J. Broad, John Markoff and David E. Sanger. The Dimona complex in the Negev desert is famous as the heavily guarded heart of Israel’s never-acknowledged nuclear arms program, where neat rows of factories make atomic fuel for the arsenal. Over the past two years, according to intelligence and military experts familiar with its operations, Dimona has taken on a new, equally secret role — as a critical testing ground in a joint American and Israeli effort to undermine Iran’s efforts to make a bomb of its own. Behind Dimona’s barbed wire, the experts say, Israel has spun nuclear centrifuges virtually identical to Iran’s at Natanz, where Iranian scientists are struggling to enrich uranium. They say Dimona tested the effectiveness of the Stuxnet computer worm, a destructive program that appears to have wiped out roughly a fifth of Iran’s nuclear centrifuges and helped delay, though not destroy, Tehran’s ability to make its first nuclear arms. “To check out the worm, you have to know the machines,” said an American expert on nuclear intelligence. “The reason the worm has been effective is that the Israelis tried it out.” Though American and Israeli officials refuse to talk publicly about what goes on at Dimona, the operations there, as well as related efforts in the United States, are among the newest and strongest clues suggesting that the virus was designed as an AmericanIsraeli project to sabotage the Iranian program. In recent days, the retiring chief of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, Meir Dagan, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton separately announced that they believed Iran’s efforts had been set back by several years. Mrs. Clinton cited Americanled sanctions, which have hurt Iran’s ability to buy components and do business around the world. The gruff Mr. Dagan, whose organization has been accused by Iran of being behind the deaths of several Iranian scientists, told the Israeli Knesset in recent days that Iran had run into technological difficulties that could delay a bomb until 2015. That represented a sharp reversal from Israel’s long-held argument that Iran was on the cusp of success. The biggest single factor in putting time on the nuclear clock appears to be Stuxnet, the most sophisticated cyberweapon ever deployed.
In interviews over the past three months in the United States and Europe, experts who have picked apart the computer worm describe it as far more complex — and ingenious — than anything they had imagined when it began circulating around the world, unexplained, in mid-2009. Many mysteries remain, chief among them, exactly who constructed a computer worm that appears to have several authors on several continents. But the digital trail is littered with intriguing bits of evidence. In early 2008 the German company Siemens cooperated with one of the United States’ premier national laboratories, in Idaho, to identify the vulnerabilities of computer controllers that the company sells to operate industrial machinery around the world — and that American intelligence agencies have identified as key equipment in Iran’s enrichment facilities. Siemens says that program was part of routine efforts to secure its products against cyberattacks. Nonetheless, it gave the Idaho National Laboratory — which is part of the Energy Department, responsible for America’s nuclear arms — the chance to identify well-hidden holes in the Siemens systems that were exploited the next year by Stuxnet. The worm itself now appears to have included two major components. One was designed to send Iran’s nuclear centrifuges spinning wildly out of control. Another seems right out of the movies: The computer program also secretly recorded what normal operations at the nuclear plant looked like, then played those readings back to plant operators, like a pre-recorded security tape in a bank heist, so that it would appear that everything was operating normally while the centrifuges were actually tearing themselves apart. The attacks were not fully successful: Some parts of Iran’s operations ground to a halt, while others survived, according to the reports of international nuclear inspectors. Nor is it clear the attacks are over: Some experts who have examined the code believe it contains the seeds for yet more versions and assaults. “It’s like a playbook,” said Ralph Langner, an independent computer security expert in Hamburg, Germany, who was among the first to decode Stuxnet. “Anyone who looks at it carefully can build something like it.” Mr. Langner is among the experts who expressed fear that the attack had legitimized a new form of industrial warfare, one to which the United States is also highly vulnerable. Officially, neither American nor Israeli officials will even utter the name of the ma-
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran toured the Natanz plant in 2008 licious computer program, much less describe any role in designing it. But Israeli officials grin widely when asked about its effects. Mr. Obama’s chief strategist for combating weapons of mass destruction, Gary Samore, sidestepped a Stuxnet question at a recent conference about Iran, but added with a smile: “I’m glad to hear they are having troubles with their centrifuge machines, and the U.S. and its allies are doing everything we can to make it more complicated.” In recent days, American officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity have said in interviews that they believe Iran’s setbacks have been underreported. That may explain why Mrs. Clinton provided her public assessment while traveling in the Middle East last week. By the accounts of a number of computer scientists, nuclear enrichment experts and former officials, the covert race to create Stuxnet was a joint project between the Americans and the Israelis, with some help, knowing or unknowing, from the Germans and the British. The project’s political origins can be found in the last months of the Bush administration. In January 2009, The New York Times reported that Mr. Bush authorized a covert program to undermine the electrical and computer systems around Natanz, Iran’s major enrichment center. President Obama, first briefed on the program even before taking office, sped it up, according to officials familiar with the administration’s Iran strategy. So did the Israelis, other officials said. Israel has long been seeking a way to cripple Iran’s capability without triggering the opprobrium, or the war, that might follow an overt military strike of the kind
they conducted against nuclear facilities in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. Two years ago, when Israel still thought its only solution was a military one and approached Mr. Bush for the bunkerbusting bombs and other equipment it believed it would need for an air attack, its officials told the White House that such a strike would set back Iran’s programs by roughly three years. Its request was turned down. Now, Mr. Dagan’s statement suggests that Israel believes it has gained at least that much time, without mounting an attack. So does the Obama administration. For years, Washington’s approach to Tehran’s program has been one of attempting “to put time on the clock,” a senior administration official said, even while refusing to discuss Stuxnet. “And now, we have a bit more.” Finding Weaknesses Paranoia helped, as it turns out. Years before the worm hit Iran, Washington had become deeply worried about the vulnerability of the millions of computers that run everything in the United States from bank transactions to the power grid. Computers known as controllers run all kinds of industrial machinery. By early 2008, the Department of Homeland Security had teamed up with the Idaho National Laboratory to study a widely used Siemens controller known as P.C.S.-7, for Process Control System 7. Its complex software, called Step 7, can run whole symphonies of industrial instruments, sensors and machines. The vulnerability of the controller to cyberattack was an open secret. In July 2008,
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46 Comes from page 45 the Idaho lab and Siemens teamed up on a PowerPoint presentation on the controller’s vulnerabilities that was made to a conference in Chicago at Navy Pier, a top tourist attraction. “Goal is for attacker to gain control,” the July paper said in describing the many kinds of maneuvers that could exploit system holes. The paper was 62 pages long, including pictures of the controllers as they were examined and tested in Idaho. In a statement on Friday, the Idaho National Laboratory confirmed that it formed a partnership with Siemens but said it was one of many with manufacturers to identify cybervulnerabilities. It argued that the report did not detail specific flaws that attackers could exploit. But it also said it could not comment on the laboratory’s classified missions, leaving unanswered the question of whether it passed what it learned about the Siemens systems to other parts of the nation’s intelligence apparatus. The presentation at the Chicago conference, which recently disappeared from a Siemens Web site, never discussed specific places where the machines were used. But Washington knew. The controllers were critical to operations at Natanz, a sprawling enrichment site in the desert. “If you look for the weak links in the system,” said one former American official, “this one jumps out.” Controllers, and the electrical regulators they run, became a focus of sanctions efforts. The trove of State Department cables made public by WikiLeaks describes urgent efforts in April 2009 to stop a shipment of Siemens controllers, contained in 111 boxes at the port of Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates. They were headed for Iran, one cable said, and were meant to control “uranium enrichment cascades” — the term for groups of spinning centrifuges. Subsequent cables showed that the United Arab Emirates blocked the transfer of the Siemens computers across the Strait of Hormuz to Bandar Abbas, a major Iranian port. Only months later, in June, Stuxnet began to pop up around the globe. The Symantec Corporation, a maker of computer security software and services based in Silicon Valley, snared it in a global malware collection system. The worm hit primarily inside Iran, Symantec reported, but also in time appeared in India, Indonesia and other countries. But unlike most malware, it seemed to be doing little harm. It did not slow computer networks or wreak general havoc. That deepened the mystery. A ‘Dual Warhead’ No one was more intrigued than Mr. Langner, a former psychologist who runs a small computer security company in a suburb of Hamburg. Eager to design protective software for his clients, he had his five employees focus on picking apart the code and running it on the series of Siemens controllers neatly stacked in racks, their lights blinking. He quickly discovered that the worm only kicked into gear when it detected the presence of a specific configuration of controllers, running a set of processes that appear to
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exist only in a centrifuge plant. “The attackers took great care to make sure that only their designated targets were hit,” he said. “It was a marksman’s job.” For example, one small section of the code appears designed to send commands to 984 machines linked together. Curiously, when international inspectors visited Natanz in late 2009, they found that the Iranians had taken out of service a total of exactly 984 machines that had been running the previous summer. But as Mr. Langner kept peeling back the layers, he found more — what he calls the “dual warhead.” One part of the program is designed to lie dormant for long periods, then speed up the machines so that the spinning rotors in the centrifuges wobble and then destroy themselves. Another part, called a “man in the middle” in the computer world, sends out those false sensor signals to make the system believe everything is running smoothly. That prevents a safety system from kicking in, which would shut down the plant before it could self-destruct. “Code analysis makes it clear that Stuxnet is not about sending a message or proving a concept,” Mr. Langner later wrote. “It is about destroying its targets with utmost determination in military style.” This was not the work of hackers, he quickly concluded. It had to be the work of someone who knew his way around the specific quirks of the Siemens controllers and had an intimate understanding of exactly how the Iranians had designed their enrichment operations. In fact, the Americans and the Israelis had a pretty good idea. Testing the Worm Perhaps the most secretive part of the Stuxnet story centers on how the theory of cyberdestruction was tested on enrichment machines to make sure the malicious software did its intended job. The account starts in the Netherlands. In the 1970s, the Dutch designed a tall, thin machine for enriching uranium. As is well known, A. Q. Khan, a Pakistani metallurgist working for the Dutch, stole the design and in 1976 fled to Pakistan. The resulting machine, known as the P-1, for Pakistan’s first-generation centrifuge, helped the country get the bomb. And when Dr. Khan later founded an atomic black market, he illegally sold P-1’s to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. The P-1 is more than six feet tall. Inside, a rotor of aluminum spins uranium gas to blinding speeds, slowly concentrating the rare part of the uranium that can fuel reactors and bombs. How and when Israel obtained this kind of first-generation centrifuge remains unclear, whether from Europe, or the Khan network, or by other means. But nuclear experts agree that Dimona came to hold row upon row of spinning centrifuges. “They’ve long been an important part of the complex,” said Avner Cohen, author of “The Worst-Kept Secret” (2010), a book about the Israeli bomb program, and a senior fellow at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. He added that Israeli intelligence had asked retired senior Dimona personnel to
help on the Iranian issue, and that some apparently came from the enrichment program. “I have no specific knowledge,” Dr. Cohen said of Israel and the Stuxnet worm. “But I see a strong Israeli signature and think that the centrifuge knowledge was critical.” Another clue involves the United States. It obtained a cache of P-1’s after Libya gave up its nuclear program in late 2003, and the machines were sent to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, another arm of the Energy Department. By early 2004, a variety of federal and private nuclear experts assembled by the Central Intelligence Agency were calling for the United States to build a secret plant where scientists could set up the P-1’s and study their vulnerabilities. “The notion of a test bed was really pushed,” a participant at the C.I.A. meeting recalled. The resulting plant, nuclear experts said last week, may also have played a role in Stuxnet testing. But the United States and its allies ran into the same problem the Iranians have grappled with: the P-1 is a balky, badly designed machine. When the Tennessee laboratory shipped some of its P-1’s to England, in hopes of working with the British on a program of general P-1 testing, they stumbled, according to nuclear experts. “They failed hopelessly,” one recalled, saying that the machines proved too crude and temperamental to spin properly. Dr. Cohen said his sources told him that Israel succeeded — with great difficulty — in mastering the centrifuge technology. And the American expert in nuclear intelligence, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the Israelis used machines of the P-1 style to test the effectiveness of Stuxnet. The expert added that Israel worked in collaboration with the United States in targe-
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ting Iran, but that Washington was eager for “plausible deniability.” In November, the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, broke the country’s silence about the worm’s impact on its enrichment program, saying a cyberattack had caused “minor problems with some of our centrifuges.” Fortunately, he added, “our experts discovered it.” The most detailed portrait of the damage comes from the Institute for Science and International Security, a private group in Washington. Last month, it issued a lengthy Stuxnet report that said Iran’s P-1 machines at Natanz suffered a series of failures in midto late 2009 that culminated in technicians taking 984 machines out of action. The report called the failures “a major problem” and identified Stuxnet as the likely culprit. Stuxnet is not the only blow to Iran. Sanctions have hurt its effort to build more advanced (and less temperamental) centrifuges. And last January, and again in November, two scientists who were believed to be central to the nuclear program were killed in Tehran. The man widely believed to be responsible for much of Iran’s program, Mohsen Fakrizadeh, a college professor, has been hidden away by the Iranians, who know he is high on the target list. Publicly, Israeli officials make no explicit ties between Stuxnet and Iran’s problems. But in recent weeks, they have given revised and surprisingly upbeat assessments of Tehran’s nuclear status. “A number of technological challenges and difficulties” have beset Iran’s program, Moshe Yaalon, Israel’s minister of strategic affairs, told Israeli public radio late last month. The troubles, he added, “have postponed the timetable.”
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The La Guancha Boardwalk T
he La Guancha Boardwalk is located in the town’s sea shore. It has kiosks which sell food and alcoholic beverages. There is also a marina and an open-space stage for social and other similar activities. It also has an observation tower from which the Cardona Island Lighthouse can be seen. A 45-minute boat ride is also available to Caja de Muertos (Coffin Island), a small beach island that features the Caja de Muertos Lighthouse which was built in 1887. “The Paseo Tablado La Guancha (Boardwalk) is a good place to mingle with local Ponceños (people of Ponce). Built in the 1990s, the boardwalk overlooks the yacht harbor and features a concert pavilion, an observation tower, many restaurants and bars, and a public beach. This can be a busy place, with lots of live salsa music and crowds. Continues on page 48
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Comes from page 47 The Paseo Tablado La Guancha is also a great place to look out at the water and catch a cool breeze. With the exception of Monday and Tuesday, the boardwalk is usually quite a lively place and great for people watching.” “It’s basically a boardwalk filled with many different local eateries. They mostly sell delicious “fritters”, like what we call “bacalaitos”, or fried cod fish. There are also “empanadillas”, which
are basically fried meat or cheese filled turnovers. Apart from the food, the boardwalk is a great place to relax and take a light stroll. At one end of the boardwalk there is a lookout tower, giving an elevated view of La Guancha. You can see many big fish. These are not the prettiest, and do something really weird with their mouths once in a while. Just outside of the boardwalk there are fun playgrounds for kids and a cool arcade. Ponce’s beach is very near the boardwalk, you can even walk to it.”
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was a gift from France and resembles the Eiffel Tower (sort of). It was Sunday evening when two friends and I checked in to the Chic Hotel, where I had stayed in 1993 and one of a handful of places to stay in Monte Cristi. Single rooms cost us 550 pesos ($15) and provide what their typical Dominican business travelers expect: clean sheets, non-noise-proof walls and cold-water showers. After settling in, it was too late to explore beaches, so we made our way a few blocks to Calle Ocho, an irregularly scheduled, unapologetically raucous party held at the corner of Duarte and Colón Streets that is impossible to avoid because the revelry spills out and blocks the traffic on Duarte, the main street in town. Hundreds had gathered to drink 22-ounce Presidente beers (a source of national pride) and dance to the Dominican genres of merengue and bachata. The volume was deafening — if Spinal anomaly, a hill called El Morro that was evident in decrepit 19th-century Tap’s amplifiers are loud because the rises in the shape of a concrete traffic houses (mostly abandoned) and a barrier right on the water’s edge. I clock tower in the central square that Continues on page 50 figures surely there would be other distinctive beaches to discover along that coast. Also, I had since heard that the region held another attraction: a goat dish called chivo picante — spicy goat– the spice allegedly a result of the goats’ constant munching on wild oregano that grows in the region. The area had the potential to offer a frugal traveler’s dream: Caribbean cuisine and solitude without the price tag that accompanies an exclusive resort. As I pulled into Monte Cristi in a $33-a-day-with-taxes rental car from Avis (you can also go by bus), memories came flooding back of a sleepy town whose more prosperous past
In the Dominican Republic, Caribbean Solitude for a Song By SETH KUGEL
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bout midway between Santiago and Monte Cristi in northwestern Dominican Republic, lush tropical cover gives way to scrubby brush and flat-topped trees, the livestock of choice switches from cows to goats, and all-inclusiveresort tourists are supplanted by Dominicans. The beaches change, too. They are just as beautiful, but they are far, far emptier. I drove to the area after my New Year’s jaunt to Cabarete so that I could revisit a part of the country I first saw in 1993. I remember it almost exclusively for an odd and wonderful beach hidden behind a topographical
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Comes from page 49 dial goes to 11, in the Dominican Republic, the dial goes to 11,000. The next morning, my friends Adam and Andrew and I had fresh juice and coffee at the Chic Hotel’s outdoor restaurant and made the short drive out to El Morro, part of Monte Cristi National Park. We parked and climbed down a short but precariously unstable, rocky path to the crescent beach, cut off entirely from land by the hill itself. It was high tide, so there was only a sliver of golden sand to settle down on, but if you’re the only people there, a sliver is all you need. Seth Kugel for The New York Times Adam tossing a football with a local child. We hit the turquoise water – warm, with silky sand underfoot – and did what three American men do when they have a football and a camera with rapid-fire shutter: try to capture images of themselves making heroic diving catches into the water. By the time we left, around noon,
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a few other visitors had shown up: a group of teenagers with a football-curious little kid and two 20-something women named Fabiola and Digna who were playing hooky from their government jobs to collect rocks on the beach. Fabiola struck up a conversation with us as we were leaving. (“Will you carry this bag of rocks up the hill for us?” were her precise words.) I told them my mission for the afternoon — to hunt out other hidden beaches in the area — and they agreed to climb in the car to show us the way to a place called Popa Beach, which they insisted met our requirements. “How far is it?” I asked. “About two kilometers,” Fabiola said. It was 16 kilometers, actually, down a very bumpy dirt road, and took more than an hour to reach in our very low-hanging rental car. (To find it, take the second of two very quick rights after you pass the National Police headquarters heading west toward Monte Cristi and drive, drive, drive.)
Fabiola and Digna proved to be fantastic tour guides, explaining everything from local agriculture to government corruption, and even stopping us along the way to ask a family who had a humble, two-room home along the rural road to show us their land, pick us some wild oregano and tell us about how their goats had been rustled a few years earlier. Seth Kugel for The New York Times Popa Beach. It’s a traveler’s fantasy to head down an unmarked dirt road and emerge at a pristine beach, no one there but a few fishermen, and dive in the water. This is true in fewer and fewer places in the world, but it was true at Popa, a beach named for the family that owns the adjacent land. The beach was covered in dried seaweed, with only a few patches of whitish sand, but again, if you’re the only ones there … We thanked Fabiola and Digna for a great afternoon on the beach by taking them out for a late afternoon goat feast, about 30 miles east of Monte Cristi at one of the dozen or so roadside goat restaurants we had spotted along Highway 1 in and around the town of Villa Lobos. Seth Kugel for The New York Times Parada Kiara restaurant. Fabiola suggested her favorite, Parada Kiara. It was the best goat I’d ever had – and the meat itself did indeed take on a sharp spiciness that
I suppose I’m ready to attribute to oregano. We tried all three varieties: ripiado (kind of a pulled goat, favorite of Adam and Andrew – 280 pesos or $8), horneado (big chunks of semiblackened meat that is tender but firm on the inside, for 250 pesos or $7) and picante (the traditional stew, 170 pesos or about $5). We dropped off our new friends and moved into the Monte Chico hotel, a larger and grander-looking spot out of town on the road to (and with views of) the Morro. It was slightly more expensive, 750 pesos a night ($21) for an “economic” room – still no hot water – but we hoped it would be quieter. It was, at least at first. “The silence is amazing,” Adam commented, as we went to our rooms. But at around 11:30 p.m., reggaetón music starting blasting so earthshatteringly loud we suspected it was emanating from a car speaker in the parking lot. When I went out to investigate, it turned out the party was actually being held on the street a few hundred yards down the road from the hotel. I considered walking over to the party and seeing if they would turn down the volume a bit, say, to 10,500. But I doubt it would have been effective, and I decided that the rewards of empty beaches, generous local tour guides and feasts of goat were worth rolling with a few cultural punches. The party ended at 2 a.m., and I quickly fell asleep.
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Advertising
Restaurants Reach Out to Customers With Social Media pany also sent its “Fatmobile” to distribute free hamburgers for one day in Los Angeles. “It got people off their feet,” said Alice Lancaster, vice president of marketing at Loopt, which is based in Mountain View, Calif. “Some 1,300 people checked in during a four-hour period.” Such “user behavior is driving the way brands are interacting with social media,” said Ms. Lancaster. For example, she said that in a partnership with Virgin America, Loopt temporarily rebranded two taco trucks in California with specials to market the airline’s new flights to Mexico. Buffalo Wild Wings is not taking to the streets, but it is trying to add a layer to smartphone customer giveaways, Mr. Burke said. Customers can win rewards By ELIZABETH OLSON
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ESTAURANTS and bars thrive on repeat business, but customers increasingly expect more than just good service, food and drinks. They want to be engaged and entertained, and some food establishments are turning to location-based social media to help keep customers happy and loyal. Buffalo Wild Wings, a national restaurant chain that offers casual dining and televised sports, is embarking on a campaign, called “Home Court Advantage,” to involve customers beyond the smartphone “check-in” they use to note their arrival. The chain, which has 730 locations around the country, is known for its wing-eating contests and trivia challenges. Beginning this month, it is working with Scvngr, a location-based social media network, to introduce contests and rewards for its customers. Its main target is tech-savvy basketball fans, an important demographic for the chain. Like the social media companies Gowalla, Foursquare and Loopt, Scvngr is largely reaching the people in their 20s and 30s who frequently use their mobile phones to flag their presence at a specific spot, and to notify friends of their location. While millions of people have signed onto such sites, it is estimated that just 4 percent of smartphone users in the United States have tried these services, with a mere 1 percent using them more than once a week, according to the most recent Forrester Research survey. Most users are men, however, and some 70 percent are between 19 and 35 — and
that is the ideal profile of a Buffalo Wild Wings customer. “We are looking for social engagement,” said Jeremy Burke, brand manager for Buffalo Wild Wings. “We want them to be able to tell others what they liked — a beer, a garlic flavor. Our goal is to build frequency.” Like Buffalo Wild Wings, some food outlets are experimenting with attracting customers through digital approaches. This month, for example, Fatburger, a chain based in California, united with the social media service Loopt and Fox Television to promote the network’s new animated series, “Bob’s Burgers,” about a family-run burger business. As part of its marketing, the hamburger purveyor revamped four of its 60-plus stores to look like a Bob’s Burgers store. Some of its stores served free Bob’s Burgers for a day, and the com-
Finale, which has three dessert shops in the Boston area. “We test our customers’ knowledge of our desserts, and they can take quizzes about — or photos of — our desserts, then earn points,” said Paul Conforti, a co-founder of Finale. The points are used for discounts or free desserts, a process that works better for Finale, he said, than a service that might require a large discount over a short period. Mr. Conforti said the information provided by Scvngr allowed him to track the number of people who came to buy pastry or eat a dessert. “Each customer came in about 2.4 times in the last two months,” he said of the Scvngr users. “That’s more frequent than our other guests who may come in five or six times a year.” He attributes the increase to mobile users who are checking in or exchanging information using an app that that allows them to “bump” phones. Foursquare, a Scvngr rival, improved its program after people who qualified as “mayor” of an establishment began asking what they got for their loyalty, said Eric Friedman, its director of client services. The mayor designation is bestowed on those who make the most visits to a business. When restaurants and others enroll with Foursquare, they can opt to offer digital specials, which can be discounts or, in the case of high-end restaurants, a massage at a spa, he said. Even so, using digital to drive up clientele has yet to become widespread. Melissa Parrish, chief author of the Forrester Research study, noted that registered users were “still a drop in the like free chicken wings or soft drinks bucket”. on each of the first three visits. After that, the chain offers customers a chance to win rewards with challenges like uploading a photo of the crowd’s reaction to a big game play. Customers can also create their own challenges — in-restaurant or digitally — and win points for prizes, which include a trip to the National Basketball Association finals with Scottie Pippen, an N.B.A. Hall of Famer who won six championships with the Chicago Bulls. In the first week, the restaurant’s new contests drew 10,000 players who competed in 33,000 challenges. Participants won 5,000 rewards. “It’s very social — almost like tailgating, but in a restaurant,” said Christopher Mahl, senior vice president of brands at Scvngr. The company, based in Cambridge, Mass., recently has worked to expand offerings on a smaller scale with
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January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Big Retailers Fill More Aisles With Groceries
By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD
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or dinner tonight, pick up some sushi and salad — at Walgreens. Or maybe some Target chicken. Reflecting a major shift in the way Americans shop for food, retailers better known for selling clothes or aspirin, including Walgreens, CVS/Pharmacy and Target, are expanding in a big way into the grocery business, with fresh produce, frozen meats and, yes, even sushi. Target invested $500 million last year alone in a new push on groceries, retrofitting some of its general merchandise stores with full-blown food sections. Sales and traffic at stores with the new grocery areas are about 6 percent higher than at similar stores without them, the company says. Walgreens began making over some stores in Chicago and New York a year ago, and added up to 500 food items. CVS/Pharmacy last year redesigned about 200 of its stores in urban areas like Boston, Detroit and New York, and expects to make over about 20 percent of its 7,100 stores in all. As a result, people who typically went to the grocery store once a week to stock up are instead stopping by places whose food items used to be limited to a bag of chips or a can of soup. And retailers are viewing it as an opportunity to increase sales by getting people in their stores more frequently. “It’s going to be a big food fight in the sense that you’re going to have so many people going after this sector,” said Bill Dreher, a retail analyst with Deutsche Bank.
The changes have hit the traditional grocery businesses, stores like Supervalu and Safeway, whose profits had already been declining because of rising food prices, fixed real estate and labor costs, and more competition. Like the grocers, the convenience stores and discount stores are not making a lot of money on their groceries. Instead, the goal is to draw more customers. People shop for food on average about 2.5 times a week, Mr. Dreher said, compared with once a month or so for a drugstore or Target. So if the stores can entice shoppers to pick up some groceries on the way home from work, marketing data shows they are likely to add some paper towels or nail polish or a DVD to their carts, spending around the same amount each time they visit. “Instead of having you stop at a supermarket or a fast-food place,” said Bryan Pugh, vice president for merchandising for Walgreens, “could I potentially entice our shoppers with a better range, better assortment?” So far, the drugstore sales of grocery items are too small to be statistically significant, but they are growing, according to Janney Capital Markets, which estimates that Wal-Mart has about 33 percent of the grocery market, and Target about 3 percent; Kroger, Safeway and Supervalu each represent 4 to 9 percent. “Stomachs haven’t gotten significantly larger, yet you have, probably, at least 10 percent per capita more square footage than you did in the ’80s” devoted to grocery, said Jonathan P. Feeney,
an analyst with Janney. Target began opening stores primarily devoted to groceries, called SuperTargets, in the 1990s. But two years ago, seeking to lure customers during the economic downturn, it began trying out grocery areas in its traditional multipurpose stores. It now has groceries in about 450 of its 1,750 stores. Another 400 are planned for 2011, and Annette Miller, Target’s senior vice president for grocery, said she expected an expanded food department to move into most Target stores eventually. The grocery section is laid out with islands stacked with fresh vegetables and bakery items, surrounded by refrigerated cases carrying items like pizza, burritos and chicken. Target also carries sandwiches and quick lunches in stores near office buildings. “What we’re finding with this new layout is the number of trips is really increasing,” said Ms. Miller, adding that when customers come in, they are “still shopping the entire store.” Mr. Dreher of Deutsche Bank estimated that shoppers go to Targets with groceries almost twice as often as patrons visit regular Targets. While the gross margins of the grocery business are about 18 percent, well below those of retail, which are about 30.5 percent, groceries both drive visits and make existing stores more profitable, said Colin McGranahan, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein. At drugstores, the emphasis on food goes beyond increasing foot traffic, to the broader goal of selling more items outside the pharmacy.
“The drugstores were an incredibly profitable business,” said Mr. Dreher, the Deutsche Bank analyst, when most people paid for prescriptions with cash 10 or 20 years ago. But now, third-party plans are paying for more prescriptions (often at deep discounts), and drugstores’ profitability on prescriptions has declined. So they are pushing other items, with expanded cosmetics departments and bigger toy aisles. Food is one way to get shoppers in stores for reasons other than picking up prescriptions. Walgreens is devoting up to 40 percent of the space in its redesigned stores to fresh and frozen groceries as a test to see how well food sells. It offers items like cut fruit or sushi in office locations, and staples like lettuce, bananas and meat elsewhere. In higher-income areas, like at one of its Duane Reade stores in Brooklyn, the food section looks like a gourmet grocery, offering six varieties of cage-free eggs, gnocchi, shitake mushrooms and mochi ice cream balls. The refurbished CVS/Pharmacy stores have larger grocery sections, and also have self-checkout kiosks for quicker trips. “In urban markets, where there are often not as many groceries or supermarkets, we’re finding that these customers are shopping our stores much more for that purpose,” said Michael DeAngelis, a CVS spokesman. Grocery stores have largely abandoned inner cities over the recent decades, as suburban areas offered more space for parking and unloading trucks. That has led to “food deserts,” as sociologists call them, where urban, lowincome areas have little access to fresh or affordable groceries, though there is fast food aplenty. Though drugstores may be convenient, they are not necessarily a terrific deal for grocery customers. Drugstores buy and store food less efficiently than grocers do, so their food prices are higher. To take one example, a Siggi’s yogurt at a Duane Reade in Brooklyn costs $3.19; at a corner store nearby, it costs $2.75. “There is a cost of convenience, because we are on some of the best corners in America,” said Mr. Pugh of Walgreens. Still, Mr. Dreher said, the drugstores’ food offerings are an alternative in cities like New York to even more expensive food from neighborhood groceries or bodegas. And with the addition of produce, “it’s actually fresh and healthy food,” he said.
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In Wreckage of Lost Jobs, Lost Power By DAVID LEONHARDT
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lone among the world’s economic powers, the United States is suffering through a deep jobs slump that can’t be explained by the rest of the economy’s performance. The gross domestic product here — the total value of all goods and services — has recovered from the recession better than in Britain, Germany, Japan or Russia. Yet a greatly shrunken group of American workers, working harder and more efficiently, is producing these goods and services. The unemployment rate is higher in this country than in Britain or Russia and much higher than in Germany or Japan. The American jobless rate is higher than China’s. The European countries with worse unemployment tend to be still mired in crisis, like Greece, Ireland and Spain. Economists are in a spirited debate, about the causes of the American jobs slump. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard labor economist, calls the picture “genuinely puzzling.” That the financial crisis originated here, and was so severe here, surely plays some role. The United States had a bigger housing bubble than most other countries, leaving a large group of idle construction workers who can’t easily switch industries. Many businesses, meanwhile, are reluctant to commit to hiring workers out of a fear that heavily indebted households won’t spend much in coming years. But beyond these immediate causes,
the basic structure of the American economy also seems to be an important factor. This jobless recovery, after all, is the third straight recovery since 1991 to begin with months and months of little job growth. One possibility is the balance of power between employers and employees. Relative to the situation in most other countries — or in this country for most of the last century — American employers operate with few restraints. Unions have withered, at least in the private sector, and courts have grown friendlier to business. Many companies can now come much closer to setting the terms of their relationship with employees, letting them go when they become a drag on profits and relying on remaining workers or temporary ones when business picks up. Just consider the main measure of corporate health: profits. In Canada, Japan and most of Europe, corporate profits have still not recovered to precrisis levels. In the United States, profits have more than recovered, rising 12 percent since late 2007. For corporate America, the Great Recession is over. For the American work force, it’s not. Unfortunately, fixing the job market will take years. Even if job growth accelerated to the rapid pace of the late 1990s and remained there, the unemployment rate would not fall below 6 percent (which some economists consider full employment) until 2016. We could now be in only the first half of the longest stretch of high unemployment
since World War II. The best way to put people back to work is to lift economic growth. For Washington, lifting growth will first mean avoiding the mistakes of 2010, when the Fed, the White House and some members of Congress prematurely assumed that a solid recovery was under way. The risk this year is that they will start reducing the budget deficit immediately by cutting federal programs, rather than having the cuts take effect in future years. Policy makers could also help the unemployed by spreading economic pain more broadly among the population. I realize this idea may not sound so good at first. Who wants pain to spread? The fact is this downturn has concentrated its effects on a relatively narrow group of Americans. In Germany and Canada, some companies and workers have averted layoffs by agreeing to cut everyone’s hours and, thus, pay. In this country, average wages for the employed have risen faster than inflation since 2007, which is highly unusual for a downturn. Yet unemployment remains terribly high, and almost half of the unemployed have been out of work for at least six months. These are the people bearing the brunt of the downturn. Germany’s job-sharing program — known as “Kurzarbeit,” or short work — has won praise from both conservative and liberal economists. Senator Jack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island, has offered a bill that would encourage similar programs. So
China’s Currency Isn’t Our Problem By MARK WU
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HEN President Hu Jintao of China visits Washington this week, many Americans will clamor for Beijing to stop manipulating its currency. We think we are being cheated on a huge scale, but we should reconsider. When it comes to lost jobs, the negative impact of China’s currency, the renminbi, is less than one might think. Adjusting the exchange rate should not take priority over more vexing issues like North Korea, Iran and bilateral trade. Since China agreed to a more flexible exchange rate last summer, its currency has appreciated a measly 3.6 percent against the dollar. This is because China, just like the United States, is also worried about jobs. In going slowly on appreciation, China is giving its exporters time to adjust, thereby limiting job losses and containing social unrest. Many Americans believe that the Chinese jobs being preserved by an artificially low currency come at the expense of American jobs. There are three common explanations behind this theory. First, a stronger currency would increase the purchasing power of Chinese
consumers and decrease the relative cost of American goods in China, spurring more Chinese to buy more American products. Second, a stronger currency increases the relative cost of Chinese goods in third markets, like Europe or Latin America. So if the renminbi appreciates, consumers in other countries will shy away from Chinese products in favor of American products. Third, a stronger currency would increase labor costs in China, making it less attractive for American companies to move jobs to China and thus keeping more people employed at home. These claims, however, are more wishful thinking than actual truths. Consider the first idea, that a strengthened Chinese currency would increase the growth rate of American exports to China. From 2005 to 2008, the renminbi appreciated nearly 20 percent against the dollar. Yet, American exports to China over those three years grew at a slightly slower pace than in the previous three-year period when the renminbi did not appreciate at all (71 percent versus 89 percent). This is because many of America’s top exports to China are for capital-intensive
goods like aerospace and power-generation equipment. Price is but one of several factors for these purchases, along with technology, quality and service. In addition, American companies in those industries are usually competing against European and Japanese firms rather than Chinese manufacturers. Ultimately, the dollar-euro and dollar-yen exchange rates may play more important roles in Chinese demand for American goods than the renminbi rate. Second, I recently did an analysis of the top American exports to our 20 leading foreign markets, and found little evidence that an undervalued Chinese currency hurts American exports to third countries. This is mostly because there is little head-to-head competition between America and China. In less than 15 percent of top export products — for example, network routers and solar panels — are American and Chinese corporations competing directly against one another. By and large, we are going after entirely different product markets; we market things like airplanes and pharmaceuticals while China sells electronics and textiles. Finally, it is unlikely that a stronger renminbi would bring many jobs back
far, though, the White House has not pursued it aggressively. Perhaps Gene Sperling, the new director of the National Economic Council, can put it back on the agenda. Restoring some balance to the relationship between employers and employees will be more difficult. One problem is that too many labor unions, like the auto industry’s, have been poorly run, hurting companies and, ultimately, workers. Of course, many other companies — AT&T, General Electric, Southwest Airlines — have thrived with unionized workers, and study after study has shown that unions usually do benefit workers. As one bumper sticker says, “Unions: The folks who brought you the weekend.” Today, unions are clearly playing on an uneven field. Companies pay minimal penalties for illegally trying to bar unions and have become expert at doing so, legally and otherwise. For all their shortcomings, unions remain many workers’ best hope for some bargaining power. The list of promising solutions to the jobs slump can go on and on. Reforming the disability insurance system so it does not encourage long-term joblessness would help. “Once people enter the system,” as Mr. Katz of Harvard says, “they basically never come back.” Improving high schools and colleges — reclaiming the global lead in education — would help even more. Remember, the jobless rate for college graduates is only 4.8 percent, and some highly skilled jobs continue to go unfilled. home. Instead, companies would most likely shift labor-intensive production to Vietnam, Indonesia and other low-wage countries. And in any case many high-skilled jobs will continue to flow overseas, as long as cheaper talent can be found in India and elsewhere. Only in a few industries, like biomedical devices, would a stronger Chinese currency combined with quality issues tempt American companies to keep more manufacturing at home. Don’t get me wrong: China’s currency policies have led to unhealthy artificial distortions in the Chinese and world economy. They also fuel currency wars that threaten to undermine the cooperation needed to sustain a global recovery. And while the effect on American workers is far less than imagined, workers in the developing world stand much to gain from a faster renminbi appreciation. We should discuss currency issues with China, but the exchange rate should not be at the top of the bilateral agenda. The issue is best left to the Group of 20, for this is as much the rest of the world’s problem as it is ours. Resolving our economic troubles will depend much more on reinvesting in education, transportation and other government services, basic science and applied research than on forcing China to yield on its currency.
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January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
G.E. to Share Jet Technology With China in New Joint Venture By DAVID BARBOZA, CHRISTOPHER DREW and STEVE LOHR
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s China strives for leadership in the world’s most advanced industries, it sees commercial jetliners — planes that may someday challenge the best from Boeing and Airbus — as a top prize. And no Western company has been more aggressive in helping China pursue that dream than one of the aviation industry’s biggest suppliers of jet engines and airplane technology, General Electric. On Friday, during the visit of the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, to the United States, G.E. plans to sign a joint-venture agreement in commercial aviation that shows the tricky risk-and-reward calculations American corporations must increasingly make in their pursuit of lucrative markets in China. G.E., in the partnership with a state-owned Chinese company, will be sharing its most sophisticated airplane electronics, including some of the same technology used in Boeing’s new stateof-the-art 787 Dreamliner. For G.E., the pact is a chance to build upon an already well-established business in China, where the company has booming sales of jet engines, mainly to Chinese airlines that are now buying Boeing and Airbus planes. But doing business in China often requires Western multinationals like G.E. to share technology and trade secrets that might eventually enable Chinese companies to beat them at their own game — by making the same products cheaper, if not better. The other risk is that Western technologies could help China play catchup in military aviation — a concern underscored last week when the Chinese military demonstrated a prototype of its version of the Pentagon’s stealth fighter, even though the plane could be a decade away from production. The first customer for the G.E. joint venture will be the Chinese company building a new airliner, the C919, that is meant to be China’s first entry in competition with Boeing and Airbus. For the most part, Western aviation executives say the Chinese are simply too far behind in both civilian and military airplane technology to cause any real fears anytime soon — although it does put pressure on Boeing and Airbus to continue to innovate and stay technologically ahead of China. G.E., which said it had briefed the commerce, defense and state departments on details of the deal, acknowledges that pairing up with a Chinese firm is a deli-
cate dance. But because the commercial aircraft market in China is expected to generate sales of more than $400 billion over the next two decades, it is not a party the company is willing to miss. Eventually, G.E. executives say, China will become a potent player in the commercial jetliner market, and the company wants to be a major supplier to the emerging Chinese producers. “They are committed for the long term and they have every probability of being successful,” said John G. Rice, vice chairman of G.E. “We can participate in that or sit on the sidelines. We’re not about sitting on the sidelines.” Mr. Rice also said that the Chinese joint venture partner — the aerospace design and equipment manufacturer Aviation Industry Corporation of China, or Avic — has supplied G.E. with some parts for jet engines for years. And he said he had personally known Avic’s president for a decade. “This venture is a strategic move that we made after some thought and consideration, with a company we know,” Mr. Rice said. “This isn’t something we were forced into” by the Chinese government. G.E.’s new joint venture in Shanghai will focus on avionics — the electronics for communications, navigation, cockpit displays and controls. G.E. will be contributing its leading-edge avionics technology — a high-performance core computer system that operates as the avionics brain of Boeing’s new 787 Dreamliner. The joint venture has a ready customer in the C919’s builder, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, which is also a government-owned enterprise. The plane will be a single-aisle airliner, carrying up to 200 passengers, intended to compete with Boeing 737s and Airbus 320s. Although the Chinese hope to begin deliveries in 2016, analysts say the schedule may well slip. With or without the C919, the Chinese market for commercial airliners is already huge and growing fast — a big market for G.E. jet engines and other systems, as well as Boeing and Airbus planes. But if the C919 grabs any significant slice of that market, it would represent a new, expanded opportunity for G.E. The company has already been chosen to supply engines for the Chinese plane, through its long-standing partnership with Snecma of France. Though the world’s largest producer of jet engines, G.E. has trailed other suppliers of avionics in overall sales, behind Honeywell, Rockwell Collins and Thales, all of whom competed for the C919 business. Several other American companies
have also been chosen as suppliers for the C919 aircraft, providing power generators, fuel tanks, hydraulic controls, brakes, tires and other gear. The roster of United States suppliers includes Rockwell Collins, Honeywell, Hamilton Sundstrand, Parker Aerospace, Eaton Corporation and Kidde Aerospace. In fact, the corporate competition for contracts on the C919 became a “frenzy,” said Mark Howes, president of Honeywell Aerospace Asia Pacific. The Chinese government, he said, had made it clear to Western companies that they should be “willing to share technology and know-how.” But the G.E. avionics joint venture, analysts say, appears to be the deepest relationship yet and involves sharing the most confidential technology. And G.E.’s partner, Avic, also supplies China’s military aircraft and weapons systems. G.E. executives would not comment on the details of the joint venture. But a person involved in the talks said the 50-50 venture is for 50 years. G.E., the person said, is putting in technology and startup capital of $200 million. Avic will initially contribute $700 million, the person said, including the cost of a new research and development lab already under construction. To address American government security concerns, the joint venture in Shanghai will occupy separate offices and be equipped with computer systems that cannot pass data to computers in Avic’s military division, G.E. executives say. And anyone working in the joint venture must wait two years before they can work on military projects at Avic, they added. While Boeing and Airbus would probably rather not see their suppliers help the Chinese so much, both those companies must also constantly balance the risks and rewards of operating in China. Boeing has subcontracted parts work to China for many years, and it is expanding a joint venture in Tianjin that
makes parts with composite materials for several of its planes. And Airbus has built a factory that assembles A320s in the same city. Boeing has “opted to accept the reality of both partnering and competing with China,” Boeing’s chief executive, W. James McNerney Jr., said in a speech last year. Indeed, China’s push into the commercial aircraft industry will probably increase exports from American aviation equipment manufacturers for years to come, according to industry analysts. Whether China succeeds or fails, the state-owned companies will keep investing, generating sales for the suppliers. The real concern lies further head, according to a study of China’s strategy included in a report published in November by a bipartisan Congressional advisory group, the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The group concluded that China’s huge state subsidies for its own industry, its requirements that foreign companies provide technology and know-how to gain access to the Chinese market, along with the close ties between its commercial and military aviation sectors all raise concerns and “bear watching.” The big aviation equipment makers say that, by now, they are experienced at grappling with matters of technology transfer in China. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Kent L. Statler, an executive vice president for commercial aviation at Rockwell Collins, observes that his employees often ask whether the company is trading its future for immediate sales in China. “I think you’re naïve if you don’t take into account that you could be standing up a future competitor,” Mr. Statler said. Any company in a global business is in a race, he added, and staying ahead is the only defense. “At the end of the day, our technologies and processes have to continue to improve,” Mr. Statler said. “It comes down to who can innovate faster.”
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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Opportunities at Entry Level of
COLLECTIBLES 1964 VOLKSWAGEN BEETLE (Barrett-Jackson) An excellent first collectible, and inexpensive parts are widely available. This Beetle was restored in attractive colors. $12,000-$14,000. 1974 TRIUMPH TR6 (Gooding & Company) One of the last traditional British roadsters, this magenta TR6 may be just right for an extroverted national. Randy Nonnenberg, editor of a sports car fan. $20,000-$25,000. By ROB SASS
O
VER $172 million in collector cars sold last August in auctions around Monterey, Calif., with 33 classics bringing $1 million or more. By all indications, the Château Lafite Rothschild end of the collector car market is doing quite well. What of the Pabst Blue Ribbon end of the market, the domain of younger and less liquid collectors? The auctions taking place this week in the Phoenix area may provide clues to the health of this vital part of the vintage-car hobby. Of the major auction houses holding sales, Silver Auctions of Spokane, Wash., is the most firmly identified with the entry-level market. Held in Fort McDowell, about a half hour northeast of Phoenix, it’s the North African souk of auctions, where one can find cars like a clean Corvair or an obscure British roadster like a Jensen-Healey. “At the height of the market, the
entry point for a car you’d be proud to take to a local show was about $15,000,” said Mitch Silver, the founder of Silver Auctions. “Now, you can find quality cars in the $7,000 to $8,000 range. Prices haven’t been much lower in the last 10 years.” Mr. Silver is bullish on four-door sedans and station wagons of the 1950s’70s. “Although they’re not the most collectible cars out there, we all have fond memories. And $10,000 to $12,000 can buy a nice one. “It isn’t likely these bargains will be here forever,” he said. “I think the entry-level market has already hit bottom, and it’s on the way back up.” A new auction, by MotoExotica of St. Louis, will focus on entry-level collector cars on Friday. MotoExotica has joined with Manheim Auctions, the large wholesale auctioneer, to fill the slot once occupied by Kruse Inter-
1960 STUDEBAKER LARK (Silver Auctions) The frumpy Lark nearly saved Studebaker, but few people saved Larks. It’s an ideal start to a collection of defunct brands. $10,000-$11,000.
Web site that highlights collector car ads, Bringatrailer.com, pegs the entry level at anything up to $30,000. “It’s a younger crowd, the up-and-comers in the collector car world,” Mr. Nonnenberg said. “Any more than that and you’re generally not dealing with someone buying their first collector car.” Like more established collectors, younger buyers often seek the aspirational cars of their youth. “I also see value in this end of the market in individuality,” Mr. Nonnenberg said. “There are plenty of Mustangs and Camaros out
there, but far fewer early Japanese cars. Really, how many people can say they own a classic Honda?” The Phoenix auctions are not all for entry-level buyers. RM, Gooding & Company and Russo & Steele will be selling their share of expensive cars. Still, Barrett-Jackson has shifted its focus to more accessible cars, and RM will again be holding an all-British sale that will include many sports cars. Even Gooding has a few entry-level cars. Here are a few examples of interesting cars, with their presale price estimates, that will be offered at the Arizona auctions.
1967 CADILLAC ELDORADO (RM Auctions) A design icon from G.M.’s Bill Mitchell era, many consider these a bargain. The auction company’s presale estimate is $15,000-$20,000.
1953 MG TD (Russo & Steele) The sports car America loved second (after the MG TC), this roadster will provide someone with an unlimited weekend pass for fun. $18,000-$23,000.
ARCHITECTURE & HOME DECOR
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Architects Find Their Dream Client, in China
A rendering of Bending Paths, a villa designed by a Seattle architect for a Shanghai developer. By LAWRENCE W. CHEEK
I
T was an unusual commission, unlike anything that Stuart Silk, a Seattle architect, had been offered in his quartercentury of practice: design three high-end custom homes for clients he would never meet. Although there were some specifications for functions and dimensions — total square feet, for example, and the number of bedrooms and baths — there wasn’t a clue as to style or a construction budget. “A lot of emotions went through my head,” Mr. Silk says. “Disbelief was one of them. Then the anxiety that comes along with the responsibility to do something without direction. But ultimately it was very freeing and intellectually exciting.” The commission came from Shanghai, where a Chinese developer was beginning work on a community of villas bearing stratospheric prices — 50 million to 100 million renminbi, or $7.5 million to $15 million. How did Mr. Silk get the job? A consultant for the developer had simply seen a Palm Springs, Calif., house that he had designed, liked it, and offered him the project. Before long, the three villas expanded to nine. Mr. Silk’s 17-person firm is among scores of small to midsize architectural practices across the United States that are enjoying a startling boom in Chinese projects — whether in spec mansions for sudden multimillionaires or quarter-milehigh skyscrapers. Although a handful of big firms, like Skidmore, Owings & Merrill of Chicago and HOK of St. Louis, have extended global tentacles for generations, it has been only in the last half-dozen years
that Chinese projects have gushed down to their smaller brethren. These firms are grateful for the commissions, and not only for the obvious reason — that the Chinese work has helped fill the void left by a listless American economy. More intriguing, the architects say, is that Chinese developers and even government agencies are proving to be better clients than their American counterparts. They say the Chinese are more ambitious, more adventurous and even more willing to spend the money necessary to realize the designs. This thrills the architects, who have artistic undercurrents that often struggle to find an outlet. The Zhongkai Sheshan Villa project, recently completed in a scenic suburb of Shanghai, provides a window onto the unusual workings of some architectural commissions in China. This luxury development occupies 45 acres and comprises 80 custom villas. Wang Qian, a consultant for the developer, the ZK Real Estate Development Company of Shanghai, toured luxury communities in Palm Springs, Los Angeles and Toronto in 2003 and identified 17 North American architects, including Mr. Silk, to design the homes. The list eventually narrowed to 10. “I have no idea whether Chinese architects can do this,” said Mr. Wang, in an interview from Shanghai. “Maybe they can — but I didn’t want to take that risk. In China there was no development like this. The villa market is rather young in China.” Each of Mr. Silk’s nine designs was required to be distinct, but no stylistic guidelines materialized. For the first time in his career, he wasn’t an architect interpre-
ting a client’s tastes and personality, but an artist facing a blank canvas. “It opened up a part of my brain that hadn’t been exercised in a while,” he says. Mr. Silk visited the Suzhou gardens, west of Shanghai, where he encountered signs interpreting the landscapes; they were written in poetic language. That prompted the idea of writing story lines from which each villa design could bud. His narrative for one home, called Bending Paths, begins in a meditative vein: Stuart Silk was commissioned to design nine custom homes near Shanghai with no instructions on style or budget.
“Like rings from a stone dropped into a pond,” he wrote, “curving walls create a journey and define space.” On the aesthetic side, Mr. Silk says, the developer “really stayed out of it — if anything, they helped us more fully realize our ideas.” As the design progressed, however, new requirements popped up, some calling for substantial redesign. Mr. Silk was surprised to learn, for example, that traditional Chinese feng shui principles meant that a front door couldn’t be positioned at the foot of a stairway, lest good fortune tumble down the stairs and roll out the door. But over all, he said, “Working in these narratives turned out to be a real win. It’s an opportunity we don’t get in the programs we usually work with here.” Five villa commissions went to Mack Scogin Merrill Elam Architects of Atlanta, a small firm known for its extroverted, edgy work. Merrill Elam, a principal in the firm, says the Chinese work came as a radical departure. The firm had never done a house that would be completed without a predetermined owner, and never had a client who expressed no aesthetic predilections. “We had to think about the designs in a universal way,” Ms. Elam says. “Is it nice to have a small garden beside a dining room? Yes! Humans have instincts for certain things — views, light, privacy. We had to apply these notions as if we would live in the houses ourselves. They didn’t give us any clues.” AS Americans take on Chinese clients, they are adapting to some fresh nuances in the architect-client relationship. It’s a swirl of patient relationship-building, fast-track decision-making and lyrical moments that, they say, would be unusual in American business dealings. Chris McVoy, senior partner at Steven Holl Architects in New York, says a developer in Beijing gave the firm three months to develop a concept for a high-rise housing project that replaced a Mao-era factory in the heart of the city. The firm injected into the project Mr. Holl’s long-simmering ideas about urbanism, tapping the earth underneath for geothermal energy, and fixing everything it saw wrong with the dreary Soviet-inspired high-rises in Chinese cities. “We thought they’d say, ‘You’re crazy, forget it,’ and we’d walk away,” Mr. McVoy says. “We presented to about 20 people, and when we were finished, of course they all looked to their president to respond first. He said: ‘Anybody can build buildings. Few can build poetry.’ ”
Continues on page 57
The San Juan Weekly Comes from page 56 The project was built, complete with glass bridges linking the towers like neighborhood alleys in the sky. It led to the even more radical “groundscraper” headquarters for China Vanke, a big developer based in Shenzhen in southern China. The structure is the size of the Empire State Building laid out horizontally and raised five stories off the ground to provide a public park below. The firm also designed a development it calls the Sliced Porosity Block, under construction in Chengdu, in central China; jagged gorges are scooped out of the buildings to carve pathways for sunlight. “There’s no way a U.S. developer Drawing of the 1,440-foot tower in Tianjin that Goettsch Partners is designing.
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
would let us do these,” Mr. McVoy says, adding that the American mentality is, “if it hasn’t been done before, then you shouldn’t do it. It’s all about risk, risk, risk. The Chinese have a kind of fearlessness to build things.” He says there may be more involved than just an intrepid spirit. “There’s another dimension to it,” he muses. “There’s an appreciation of nonmaterialist ideas, a connection to history and culture and especially, meaning. They drive toward a solution, but there’s also a metaphysical dimension.” Les Wallach, an architect in Tucson, Ariz., has likewise found a receptivity he’s seldom seen in the United States. His 12-person firm, Line and Space, has designed a 40-mansion China Vanke community near Hong Kong. The original commission specified a “clubhouse” for the 40 families who would occupy the homes. “I told them these people could belong to any club in the world,” Mr. Wallach says. “Why not do something entirely different?” He hatched a concept for a hilltop retreat where artists could come to work; their art would become part of a communally owned gallery there. “They thought about it for a little while and said, ‘Let’s do it,’ ” Mr. Wallach says. Goettsch Partners in Chicago, an 85-employee firm that is now doing half its business in China, has found that its Chinese clients respect their architects’ decisions about materials. “They don’t establish a construction budget in the same way we do,” says the firm’s president, James Goettsch. “I don’t think we’ve ever had a project slowed down or held up over the budget.” The architects appreciate such decisive, generous clients. Heller Manus Architects, a 25-employee firm in San Francisco is now doing two-thirds of its work in China, with a dozen projects currently on the boards. “They have coherent policies that enable them to get things done,” says Jeffrey Heller, a partner. Mr. Heller’s business partner, Clark Manus, who is the president of the American Institute of Architects, has a theory about the streamlined Chinese process. “The U.S. political establishment is mostly attorneys and other people who are involved with political science,” he says. “In China, the highest-ranking officials tend to be engineers. They see a problem, they allocate money and effort toward a solution.” Of course, this efficiency sometimes comes with a price: a firmly decisive, topdown system means that projects are built whether or not people in local neighborhoods want them. As Mr. McVoy observes, modern development has already erased much of China’s historic architectural fa-
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Jeffrey Heller, president of Heller Manus Architects in San Francisco. The firm is doing two-thirds of its work in China. bric, like intimate courtyard neighborhoods of Beijing, which were defined by their hutongs, or alleyways. He says his firm would have “serious misgivings” about accepting a commission that would destroy something of historical value. FOR some American firms, marketing efforts in China have consisted of little more than answering the phone. Jim Olson, partner in Olson Kundig Architects in Seattle, won a Chinese commission after a Hong Kong businessman and his wife spent a year separately combing through books and magazines for houses they liked. When they compared notes, an Olson-designed house in San Francisco was at the top of both piles. Thus came a commission for a 14,000 square-foot villa. Now there’s a neighbor calling — or the agent for one. Mr. Olson says a man who owns a nearby home site recently had an acquaintance call to test the waters. “That’s the way they do it,” Mr. Olson says. “Someone else first contacts you in place of the potential client to make sure you won’t say no.” Patient relationship-building is at the heart of any long-term marketing effort in China. Mr. Heller has been traveling to China about six times a year since 2004, and much of his firm’s work has grown out of a relationship with one person in a Chinese design institute. “It’s such a relationship-driven world,” he says. “You go out to lunch, you go out to dinner.” Goettsch Partners, like Heller Manus and Steven Holl, has established a permanent office in China, and a young Shanghai-born partner, James Zheng, is working as Goettsch’s director of Asian operations. He says he spends 60 percent of his time in China, much of it cultivating relationships.
With more American firms working in China, the competition is increasing, he said in an interview from his Chicago office. “The good news is that it’s relatively easy in Chinese culture to just call someone and say ‘I want to meet you,’ ” he said. “You can’t always do that in the U.S.” At this stage, ethnocentricity, traditionally a powerful force in Chinese culture, doesn’t seem to be affecting the selection of architects. Mr. Wang, the Shanghai developer, says he just wanted the “right architects” for the villas. “It’s not about who designed the villas; it’s about the output,” he says. “It’s because the architect has designed a very nice building that it becomes prestigious.” Mr. Zheng says that there is a shortage of Chinese architects with the qualifications to execute large-scale commercial projects. “In my opinion,” he says, “what most of them are missing is not the conceptual ideas, but rather the experience and ability to turn the concept designs into reality.” He says he has sensed some resentment or jealousy among some talented Chinese architects. “However,” he says, “I believe the majority of them really understand and respect” the American architects’ role. Goettsch has been so successful in China — with 25 mid- and high-rise projects, and with a 1,440-foot tower for the city of Tianjin now in design — that the firm is becoming picky about its clients. Not all developers have adequate expertise for big projects, Mr. Zheng says. “You want to avoid clients who don’t know anything about building,” he says. “They won’t respect you; they’ll try to change things along the way.” Which sounds an awful lot like architects’ complaints about American clients.
58 January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Herman
Speed Bump
Frank & Ernest
BC
Scary Gary
Wizard of Id
Two Cows And A Chicken
Cartoons
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Ziggi
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
59
Games
Sudoku How to Play: Fill in the empty fields with the numbers from 1 through 9 Click the “check sudoku” button to check your sudoku inputs Click the “new sudoku” button and select difficulty to play a new game
Sudoku Rules: Every row must contain the numbers from 1 through 9 Every column must contain the numbers from 1 through 9 Every 3x3 square must contain the numbers from 1 through 9
Crossword
Wordsearch
Answers on page 60
60 January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
HOROSCOPE Aries
(Mar 21-April 20)
Libra
(Sep 24-Oct 23)
Take a leap of faith in a sensible direction. It is timely to cover your tracks and consider your options. But avoid unnecessary risks, even as you indulge your sense of adventure. Choose your next move for its entertainment factor. Keep yourself amused and you will surely be happy. Loved ones will enjoy your light touch and humour.
Do not fret needlessly. It will soon be apparent what action you should take. Progress may be modest, so be patient as you wait for answers. Be selective about what you do and with whom you spend your time. You can afford to be a bit more self- absorbed as you go through a transition period. Your nearest and dearest will understand.
Taurus
Scorpio
(April 21-May 21)
(Oct 24-Nov 22)
Be consistent. Commitments were never more important. This is no time for complacency, even if your goals are in sight. Pace yourself and work through a ‘to do’ list at a realistic pace. Do not push things too far and keep an eye on finances. Close encounters of the intimate kind are well blessed. Use the love groove to restore you.
Spend the energy at your disposal wisely. Be choosy. Avoid giving in to panic or frustration, as neither suits your usual philosophical demeanour. Try to put recent events into perspective a.s.a.p. You are well able for what life is throwing at you, so rise to the occasion and be formidable. A breather for close reflection is a bright idea. Assimilate!
Gemini
Sagittarius
(May 22-June 21)
(Nov 23-Dec 21)
You have more than enough to be keeping you busy. See things as they are, not as you would like them to be. A reality check is always good and prevents you losing the run of yourself. It is all very well to do your own thing, but do not alienate loved ones in the process. Stay relaxed and do not overstress yourself. Life is too short to fret.
Do some groundwork and prepare for the next phase. Change is timely. Someone who awaits your attention will spark up your love life in more ways than one. A separation may be painful but it is timely. Prepare for healing and a parting of the ways that actually feels just fine. Certain adjustments are overdue. Embrace what comes next.
Cancer
Capricorn
(June 22-July 23)
(Dec 22-Jan 20)
Ditch anxiety and try to adjust to recent upheaval as quickly as you can. Freshen up the view and take off those rose coloured spectacles. Watch your expectations and stop giving everyone a hard time. Do not even go there. Look after things from your end and what you are worried about will pan out in your favour. Keep your thoughts upbeat.
It will soon become clear that what Cupid has in store is nothing to moan about. Now is not a good time to rush your fences. Take the measured approach and see what naturally unfolds. Really, for your best success you do not have to do much. Simply sit tight and consolidate your position. What you have set up is more than okay.
Leo
Aquarius (Jan 21-Feb 19)
(July 24-Aug 23)
Stay as chilled as possible and pay attention A reshuffle of your priorities will make all the difference to your energy. Mix and match things socially for maximum impact. If you are bored stir things up and see what happens. It is okay to be a little bit mischievous, but do not go too far. Work whatever room you find yourself in and enjoy making an impact. Merry mayhem is upon you!
Open your eyes and appreciate what you have achieved to date. Obstacles may appear as if from nowhere, but there is nothing to panic about. Challenges will simply serve to make you more determined to hold onto what you have. Quite right too! Evasive action may be a good idea, so think carefully about the people, events and circumstances
Virgo
Pisces
(Aug 24-Sep 23)
It is a good time to make requests, so do not be shy! Spice up your life, as only you know how. It is important to guard your interests carefully as you go about your business. Listen to your heightened intuition. You will not be able to control everyone and everything, but you will be able to discern what really matters. Do not panic.
(Feb 20-Mar 20)
Spend time and energy wisely and all will be well. Ditch complacency. It will pay off if you simply pay attention to the obvious at the moment. Get things in the right order and do what needs to be done. Do not let recent triumphs go to your head. There is more to life than a good old ego massage. But do consider how you might ingratiate yourself!
The San Juan Weekly
Answers to the Zudoku and Crossword on page 59
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
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Sports
Tracing the N.F.L.’s Oldest Rivalry By JOHN BRANCH
H
ighway 50 is sometimes considered the 50-yard line in the rivalry between the Bears and the Packers. Squatting at that spiritual midfield — if not exactly the geographical one — is the Brat Stop, a sprawling restaurant/bar/concert hall/cheese shop just off Interstate 94 at the edge of Kenosha, Wis. The Bears and the Packers will play in the National Football Conference championship game in Chicago on Sunday. The only other time the teams met in the playoffs was in 1941. “This is bigger than the Super Bowl,” said Gail Khayat, working behind the Brat Stop’s bar. Two neon helmets lighted the bar’s back wall. One had the “C” of Chicago, the other the “G” of Green Bay. Between the two, only one opponent matters. About 200 miles separate Chicago and Green Bay. Traveling the distance and occasionally venturing from the highway for a mile or three, vestiges of the N.F.L.’s oldest rivalry can be found tucked away in unexpected places between Soldier Field and Lambeau Field — cemeteries, old stadiums, even the halls of a high school. There was no better time for such a trip than Monday. The Bears beat the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon, and the Packers beat the Atlanta Falcons on Saturday night, and the span between the cities and their teams shrank with the shared excitement of playing the other for a spot in the Super Bowl. As if the historical significance was not tangible enough, the conference winner receives the George Halas Trophy, named for the Bears’ founder and longtime coach. The Super Bowl winner receives the Vince Lombardi Trophy, named for the famed leader of the Packers. But Soldier Field, site of Sunday’s game, is hardly where the Bears-Packers rivalry was forged. For most of their history, the Bears shared Wrigley Field with their baseball-playing cousins, the Cubs. It was the site of the previous playoff game with the Packers, on Dec. 14, 1941 — a week after the attacks on Pearl Harbor. With war declared but not yet fully reverberating through the Midwest (newspaper reports surrounding the game made little mention of it), the Bears won, 33-14, in front of 43,425 fans. That set up an N.F.L. championship game against the Giants for the next week. “What the Monsters of the Midway figure to do to the New Yorkers is enough to make women weep and strong men shudder,” Arthur Daley of The New York Times wrote. The Bears won, 37-9. Daley sounded like people at the Brat Stop, lamenting that the Packers and the Bears had to play other teams. “Chicago is not nearly so excited for this fray as it was for the Western playoff a week ago,” Daley wrote. “Of course some 11,000 wild-eyed fans from Green Bay were on hand then.” At Wrigley on Monday morning, there was no sign that the Bears ever played there. There are statues outside of Ernie Banks, Billy Williams and Harry Caray, but not a whisper of Halas, Sid Luckman or George McAfee. The closest hint hung diagonally across the street from home plate. The name of the Cubby Bear, a bar established in 1953, is a nod to the tenants who shared the building from 1921 to 1970. Halas, born in Chicago in 1895, founded the Bears
in 1920, originally as the Decatur (Ill.) Staleys, for the Staley Starch Works, then the Chicago Staleys, and finally the Bears in 1922. He was the team’s coach for 40 of its first 48 seasons, including for that 1941 playoff game. On Monday morning, snow covered his family’s granite mausoleum at St. Adalbert Catholic Cemetery in Niles, just west of I-94 and a few miles east of O’Hare International Airport. The step in front had no fresh footprints, and fake pink flowers and a small American flag poked up from planters on either side. Visible through the small window were eight resting places inside. The one on top on the right side read, “George S. Halas, Feb. 2, 1895-Oct. 31, 1983.” Halas’s team won eight championships. He died two years before the Bears won their first — and, so far, only — Super Bowl. As Halas formed the Bears, Earl Lambeau, known as Curly, built the Packers in Green Bay. The teams first played each other in 1921. The Chicago Staleys won, 20-0, in Chicago, and professional football’s longest-running rivalry was born. Halas Hall, the Bears’ glassy, modern headquarters, sits in the trees just east of I-94 in Lake Forest. There on Monday, Bears Coach Lovie Smith called the Packers the “No. 1 rival.” A few hours later, in Green Bay, Packers Coach Mike McCarthy said it was “really a privilege and honor now to be part of this great history with the playoff game against the Bears.” Milwaukee sits roughly halfway between Chicago and Green Bay, but it is firmly Packers territory. The Packers protected that turf often, scheduling 169 games in Milwaukee from 1933 to 1994. They dared play only one of those games against the Bears: Nov. 10, 1974, at County Stadium, home of baseball’s Milwaukee Braves and Brewers. County Stadium is gone, having made way for Miller Park. But amid the new ball field’s acres of parking is a stadium for children called Helfaer Field. Near it are memorials for the Braves. One sits atop a base marking the “historic site of Milwaukee County Stadium, 1953-2000.” Buried in Monday’s snow was no mention of the Packers, who played up to three times a season there for 40 years, or of their 1974 victory there over the Bears, 20-3, the only time the teams met halfway. I-43 from Milwaukee to Green Bay was covered in snow on Monday. Its shoulders and median were dotted every few miles by cars that skidded off the highway. It is in that stretch, near the western shore of Lake Michigan, that Chicago, with an estimated population of nearly three million, and Green Bay, a city of 102,313 (if the precise accounting of the city limit sign is to be believed), feel worlds apart. Lambeau was born in Green Bay in 1898. His childhood home, a tidy brick house on North Irwin Avenue, can be rented for events. A few blocks away is City Stadium, now called “Old” City Stadium, next to the imposing blond-brick East High School and backed against the East River. A sign over the entry calls it “home of the Green Bay Packers 1925-1956.” It also was, and remains, home of the East High Red Devils. The Packers spent their first few seasons on patches of nearby grass, first at Hagemeister Park, then at Bellevue Park, where “crowds of 4,000-5,000 stormed the fences to boo the hated Chicago Bears,” according to Lambeau Field’s Web site.
Chicago Bears guard Danny Fortmann (21) and Bears end John Siegel (6) reacted to a ball in the air after a tackle by Bears guard Ray Bray (82), in the 1941 Western Division Playoff game against the Green Pay Packers at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Lambeau attended East High School, which this year will graduate its 150th class. (Among other alumni: the deceased sportswriter Red Smith and the “Monk” star Tony Shalhoub. There are photographs near the gym of Lambeau playing football for the school from 1913 to 1916, and school officials have yearbooks and memorabilia from the early days, including Lambeau’s transcript. Lambeau coached the school team and worked as a shipping clerk for the Indian Packing Co. when he decided to form a professional team. A new East High was completed in 1925, and the Packers settled in on its new field. Eventually, the field was surrounded by metal bleachers (since removed) and accommodated about 25,000 fans. The Packers outgrew it. A new “City Stadium” opened in 1957 a few miles away, christened with a 21-17 victory over the Bears. By then, Lambeau had won six championships and retired from coaching, and Lombardi would arrive in 1959 to lead the Packers to five more, including victories in the first two Super Bowls. A 12th title came at the end of the 1996 season. After Lambeau’s death in 1965 — he is buried in Green Bay’s Allouez Catholic Cemetery, under a simple square marker — the new stadium was renamed Lambeau Field. These days, outside the renovated and modern stadium on Lombardi Avenue, gargantuan bronze statues of Lambeau and Lombardi stand guard. Lombardi has his hands behind his back. Lambeau is pointing, maybe toward Chicago. But back at East High School, as dusk and a steady snow fell on the Packers’ earliest roots, the assistant principal Lori Frerk put everything back in perspective. Her grandparents went to school at East, lived a few blocks away and attended Packers games. They probably saw many of the 181 games played against the Bears. Yet no one from Chicago to Green Bay has seen a game between the Packers and the Bears as anticipated as this one. “That’s kind of what everyone was hoping for — those two teams,” Frerk said. “The only thing better would have been if it were here at Lambeau.” Or, even, out the door at old City Stadium. Perhaps 200 miles away at Wrigley Field. Or somewhere in the memories in between.
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The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
Lopez Scoring, but Fighting Rebounding Woes By ROB MAHONEY
A
fter a rough start to the new year, the Nets’ Brook Lopez seems to be back on track. January hadn’t been kind to Lopez; in each of the month’s first five games, he scored at a below-average rate by his season’s standards, and Lopez even scored in single digits twice during that stretch. The Nets’ two latest games have been a different story though, as Lopez dropped a pair of incredibly efficient, high-scoring performances against the Lakers and the Blazers. The momentary snag in Lopez’s per-game scoring didn’t provide any real cause for alarm, but it’s nice to see him reverse course with such prolific efforts. But all is not right in the land of Lopez. His scoring numbers may be impressive, but the Nets have been forced to confront an uncomfortable truth: Lopez, for all of his talents, is a disappointing rebounder. Lopez’s rebounding limitations are surprising given his overall profile; as a 7-foot big man with a traditional low-block post game, it’s assumed that Lopez should be grabbing boards by the dozens. He’s
long, often well positioned, and clearly has a good sense of timing, yet Lopez apparently has no cipher through which to translate his physical gifts into rebounding success. His 10.2 total rebounding rate (or the percentage of misses Lopez rebounds while on the floor) puts Lopez in the prestigious rebounding company of Andrea Bargnani and Hasheem Thabeet, a miserable distinction for one of the league’s premier big men. Some players have a knack for setting up their teammates, some for keying in defensively and others for hitting the glass. Lopez, it seems, benefits from strong scoring instincts, while everything else comes as second nature. In the last two seasons, Lopez’s primary frontcourt mates – Kris Humphries and Josh Boone – have posted career bests in rebounding rate. That’s no coincidence, and it’s difficult to argue those players are slashing Lopez’s rebounding numbers. If anything, they’re covering for his weakness; each of the Nets’ head coaches over the last two seasons (Lawrence Frank, Kiki Vandeweghe, Avery Johnson and even interim head coach Tom Barrise) has recognized the team’s need for a strong rebounding
presence alongside Lopez, and thus rebounding specialists like Humphries and Boone have benefited from the opportunity. Part of the problem is that unlike some rebounders, Lopez is exceedingly poor in grabbing boards outside of his immediate area. He has neither the athleticism to snatch up rebounds that would otherwise fall to others nor the motor to relentlessly pursue loose balls. Lopez simply boxes out, grabs whatever caroms fall in his vicinity and goes on his merry way. Humphries, who leads the Nets in rebounding rate, is almost the polar opposite, as his basketball disposition naturally pulls him toward every miss. Humphries darts into the lane for putbacks and rushes across the lane for a chance at a tip, and both pursuits are aided by his notable leaping ability. Lopez, by contrast, keeps his feet firmly planted on the hardwood, working into position and never abandoning his spot, even when doing so would be prudent. Lopez can certainly be a better rebounder than he is now (his current rebounding rate is a career low), but how much room does he have for improvement? As is usually the case, the key to Lopez’s progress stems
from the little things; some better footwork here, a new box-out technique there, and Lopez could see his rebounding numbers trend upward. That said, Lopez isn’t threatening to take N.B.A. board work to new heights, and it’s a fool’s errand to attempt a dramatic overhaul of Lopez’s rebounding style or to expect radical change. No one can rewire Lopez’s brain to make him a more active rebounder, which means the best way to maximize his rebounding ability is to chip away at some of his bad habits while emphasizing rebounding position. For now, Lopez’s goal should be rebounding adequacy. He’s talented enough as an offensive player that even decent rebounding numbers would be acceptable, but Lopez has become a genuine burden on the glass for the Nets. A march toward mediocrity isn’t typically acceptable for a franchise cornerstone, but Lopez’s performance leaves him no other choice; unless the Nets plan on keeping rebounding training wheels like Humphries and Boone paired with Lopez for his entire career, their most promising big man will have to improve his work on the glass.
It Takes a Team Effort to Undermine Stability By ROB HUGHES
J
anuary is a dangerous month in soccer team management. It is midseason, and club owners either think they can see success on the horizon or they look for someone to hire and fire to turn the season around. Players win matches, owners take the credit, and coaches or managers are caught in the middle. In East London, Avram Grant, the Israeli coach of West Ham United, had the haunted look of a man staring down the barrel. His team is at the bottom of the Premier League. The newspapers all appear to know that his job has been offered to another manager. And the board that hired Grant six months ago is tight-lipped about his future. Is it any wonder that the Hammers were hammered, 3-0 by Arsenal, on West Ham’s own soil? Grant is a dignified man in a desperate situation. Contrast this with Milan, where Leonardo, the Brazilian hired just before Christmas to take over Inter, heard his name lauded around the San Siro. The team has won four games out of four since the owner dismissed the previous coach and gave Leonardo the reins — and the 4-1 thrashing of Bologna was emphatic evidence that Inter’s form is flowing again. How fickle we all are if we feel that one man, even a team boss, is solely responsible for performance of highly paid professional players. The stability in a soccer club always has been and always will be an amalgam of
good faith among owners, trainers, players and fans. Break that trust at any level, and you have the recipe for costly failure. West Ham is deep into the mire of that today. It is exactly a year since David Sullivan and David Gold, who partly built their fortunes through pornographic magazines, bought control of the famous old Docklands club from hapless Icelandic bankers. The Davids, experienced owners who sold Birmingham City after running it for 16 years, pledged to restore West Ham to its former glory. They acknowledged that it would take time and patience. The East London club was started by workers in the Thames Ironworks in 1895. Its credo once was what Barcelona’s is now. West Ham forged its own players, raised them through the academy and with such homegrown players as Bobby Moore, Geoff Hurst and Martin Peters, gave England the nucleus for the team that won the 1966 World Cup. The team manager in those days, Ron Greenwood, treated the club like his own family. He spent little, he spent wisely. But Greenwood and his assistant, John Lyall, who later succeeded him, were entrusted with running the team for a generation. In its first 100 years, the team had only eight managers. Since the turn of this millennium, West Ham, flirting with bankruptcy, has already dispensed with five managers. Gold and Sullivan inherited the Italian, Gianfranco Zola, as coach. They fired him within five months and hired Grant to a four-year contract. This club, they said, needs to rediscover stability.
Gold told the BBC little more than a month ago that Grant would leave the club “over my dead body.” But as the tensions mount, as defeat piles upon defeat, Gold and Sullivan are dodging the media. Grant, a decent man and a fighter, is left to dangle. He insists that he can save this team’s Premier League status. But he reads the papers. He hears the rumor that Martin O’Neill, who quit as Aston Villa coach last August, has been offered his job. His position is undermined with every passing hour. Being overrun by Arsenal is not a disgrace. Arsenal is solvent and stable, and its goal scorers on Saturday, Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott, are just two Arsenal men who play the game at a speed and with a craft beyond anything in West Ham’s armory. Sadly, though, Arsenal’s fans did not just cheer their team at West Ham. In the cruel and crude way of modern audiences, they loudly baited Grant by chorusing, “You’re getting sacked in the morning!” That sweet sound had hounded Rafael Benítez toward the end of his short and sharp six-month tenure at Inter Milan. The owner there, Massimo Moratti, is an oil baron rich enough to pay for his own mistakes. So when Benítez failed to maintain the success of his predecessor José Mourinho and complained loudly that he was not given the funds to rebuild the team, Moratti acted decisively. He paid off Benítez’s contract and replaced him with Leonardo. This meant Leonardo’s crossing the
line that divides Inter from A.C. Milan, the Brazilian’s former team. The critics said there could be only two ways this would work out: Either Leonardo would gel with Mourinho’s team, or he would be dispensed of with even more impatience than Silvio Berlusconi, the Milan owner, had removed him last year. So far, so tranquil for Leonardo at Inter. The team’s players, many of whom had appeared too tired or too injured under Benitez, are suddenly playing with the zest of spring chickens. They have much ground to make up in the league led by their neighbor, A.C. Milan. But Samuel Eto’o, the Cameroon striker, insists that Inter will not give up on the chase, and he believes it can close the gap on its neighbor. “Its a personal challenge to us,” Eto’o said two weeks ago. “We had a bad start to the campaign, but Inter has the best squad in the Italian championship.” Eto’o scored twice against Bologna, his 22nd and 23rd goals of this season. Diego Milito and Dejan Stankovic also scored, and if all of those are familiar names from the all-conquering Inter of a year ago, there is one even more renowned. Time and time again, the Argentine Javier Zanetti led the performance with a zest that belies his years. He is 37, and he equaled Giuseppe Bergomi’s record of 519 Serie A appearances in an Inter shirt. He plays, in his 16th year at the club, as if it were his first. He is an example of the fruit of stability.
The San Juan Weekly
January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
63
Sports
Nadal Wins to Extend Grand Slam Streak to 22 By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
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afael Nadal’s quest to complete his Rafa Slam at the Australian Open started with a first-round victory that lasted only 47 minutes. Nadal led by 6-0, 5-0 when Marcos Daniel, his Brazilian opponent, retired with a knee injury in Melbourne. Nadal could sympathize. He retired from last year’s Open with an injured knee in the quarterfinals. “It’s terrible feeling, for sure,” Nadal said. But Nadal recovered quickly, and he won the next three majors — rattling off 22 Grand Slam matches in a row. If he keeps winning, he would be the first man to win four straight majors since Rod Laver in 1969. “It’s not an obsession,” Nadal told reporters of the socalled calendar Grand Slam. “You can write what you think. I never read a lot about myself.” In matches, Novak Djokovic took no chances against Marcel Granollers in a 6-1, 6-3, 6-1 victory. Afterward, referring to Nadal and second-ranked Roger Federer, who also won, Djokovic said, “They are deservedly the two biggest favorites to win this tournament.” But he added, “Definitely this performance gives me
more confidence and gives me enough reason to think that I can beat anyone.” Eighth-seeded Andy Roddick started with a 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 win over Jan Hajek of the Czech Republic. Also advancing were No. 6 Tomas Berdych, who lost the last Wimbledon final to Nadal, No. 9 Fernando Verdasco and the Frenchman Gilles Simon, who next plays Federer. Simon has won both of his previous matches — on hardcourts in 2008 — against Federer. “It’s a tricky second round for me,” Federer said. ZVONAREVA WINS OPENER Second-ranked Vera Zvonareva advanced by beating Sybille Bammer of Austria, 6-2, 6-1, in less than an hour. Zvonareva, who has reached the finals of the past two Grand Slam tournaments, conceded only four points in the first four games of the second set and did not allow Bammer to hold until the sixth game. “It’s tough to play your best tennis in the first match,” Zvonareva said. “The most important thing is I’ve done what I needed to do and moved through to the next one.” Also advancing were the French Open finalist Sam Stosur, who beat the American wild card Lauren Davis, 6-1, 6-1; No. 12 Agnieszka Radwanska, who took six of the last
Rafael Nadal led by 6-0, 5-0 when Marcos Daniel, his Brazilian opponent, retired with a knee injury in Melbourne. seven games after a medical timeout to hold off the Japanese veteran Kimiko Date Krumm, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5; and No. 7 Jelena Jankovic. Fourth-seeded Venus Williams beat Sara Errani of Italy, 6-3, 6-2, and No. 15 Marion Bartoli trounced Tathiana Garbin of Italy, 6-0, 6-0.
No Steel Curtain to Be Found in These Knicks
By HARVEY ARATON
N
ot surprisingly, John Starks is a football fan. And the man who announced himself to New York City and the N.B.A. during 1990s playoff mayhem with a malevolent takedown of Scottie Pippen and a naughty head butt of Reggie Miller has a horse in Sunday’s A.F.C. championship race between the Steelers and the Jets. “I’m a big Steelers fan,” Starks said at Madison Square Garden before the Knicks tipped off Monday against their Western Conference cousins, the Phoenix Suns. “When I was growing up in Oklahoma, I played some football, wide receiver, and I always wanted to be like John Stallworth and Lynn Swann.” What young athlete wouldn’t admire such graceful athleticism? But Starks lasted long enough in the Knicks’ backcourt when they played brass-knuckle basketball to recognize what ultimately separated the Steelers of his youth from the N.F.L. pack. It was the Steel Curtain’s lockdown defense. It was wide-eyed intensity. It was everything Starks watched as Rex Ryan’s Jets smothered the Patriots and what was sorely lacking from the Knicks as they scored the same 121 points they notched in Phoenix recently while surrendering 33 more in losing, 129-121. “We didn’t quite play with enthusiasm,” a mystified Amar’e Stoudemire said after the Knicks hit their first crisis since November, dropping their third straight before hitting
the road. Maybe the malaise was related to the 1 p.m. start. Maybe the lack of aggression was in tribute to the peaceful resistance espoused during the 1960s by the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., whose birthday was celebrated Monday. Or maybe the game felt like a poor man’s all-star game, coming as it did less than 24 hours after the Jets backed up their brash talk and Ryan took his place alongside Mark Messier as one of the great prophets in the annals of New York sports. “He’s done an unbelievable job getting his players to believe in his philosophy,” Starks said of Ryan. “Since he came here, he’s changed the whole culture and mentality with that team.” Ryan’s immediate influence on the Jets has reminded Starks of the effect Pat Riley had on the Knicks when he arrived with his Lakers championship pedigree in 1991. Riley infused his team with an audacity that lasted for the better part of a decade, even after his departure. The 1990s Knicks never did win the franchise’s third championship, but their playoff rivalries with the Bulls, the Pacers and the Heat annually filled the city’s springtime with an all-consuming fury. “You expected a war every night back then, the way you expect that every game now with the Jets,” said Starks, who works for the Knicks in community relations. “Football’s a different game, more violent, but Riley always came up with things to motivate us to play hard, something different for every opponent, just like Ryan does. “You look for those rivalries in the N.B.A. now, and they’re not there. The rules have changed, made it harder to play that kind of defense. They’ve toned it all down.” Yes, many of us lamented and even scorned the inelegance of those 80-75 playoff scrums with the Miami team Riley divorced the Knicks for in order to gain total organizational control he couldn’t have in New York. The physicality of those Knicks teams was often gratuitous, occasionally self-defeating. And who can forget the King birthday game when
Marcus Camby accidentally socked his own coach, Jeff Van Gundy, during an altercation with an opponent and gave the entire league a black eye? “I know that thing about defense winning championships, but I still haven’t seen a team win a game 0-0,” Suns Coach Alvin Gentry said in defense, so to speak, of Monday’s playground style that Mike D’Antoni installed in Phoenix and brought to New York. Point well taken, but if kung fu combat wasn’t what the peach-basket crowd had in mind, neither is basketball compelling theater when the defenses are as porous as the Knicks’ and Suns’ were Monday. To their discredit, the Knicks made the soon-to-be 34-year-old Vince Carter (29 points, 12 rebounds) look a decade younger. In the second decade of the 21st century, there are nights — not every night — when the N.B.A. feels a little too much like a pickup game, right down to the part where superstars choose up sides, another troublesome trend. Is it possible that the Denver melodrama is affecting the Knicks as much as it is the Nuggets and the Nets? The Knicks’ president, Donnie Walsh, has grown fond of sighing when asked about his team’s chances of landing Carmelo Anthony. But on whether the Anthony episode in the aftermath of the LeBron James summer circus is good for the league, he did acknowledge, “When it becomes public like this, every day, every hour, it becomes disconcerting, even to the player.” And the longer it continues, the more the N.B.A. leans toward reality television rather than pure competition, which is what fans ultimately clamor for. “People love when it’s us against them,” Starks said, “and that’s what coaches like Riley and Rex Ryan do for their teams.” Maybe the Knicks can win a title someday playing the free-flowing D’Antoni way. Maybe not. But the Jets-Steelers winner will be playing for one in Texas on Feb. 6 — and Starks can’t wait. With a devilish grin, he said, “It’s going to be a war.”
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January 27 - Feb. 2, 2011
The San Juan Weekly