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Impact on trade and value chains
Volatility index in financial markets (January 2018- October 2021)
VIX, V2X and VXEEM indices of financial volatility, January 2018 to October 2021
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 Jan Apr Jul
2018 Oct Jan Apr Jul
2019 Oct Jan Apr Jul
2020 Oct Jan Apr Jul
2021 Oct VXEEM Index VIX index EURO STOXX V2X Index
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on Bloomberg. Note: The VIX index, compiled by the Chicago Board of Options (CBOE), measures the expected volatility for the next 30 days based on the prices of the call and put options of the S&P 500 index. CBOE also produces the VXEEM index, which measures volatility in emerging markets, and Deutsche Börse, together with Goldman Sachsa, produces the V”X index, which measures volatility in the euro zone.
In line with global GDP growth dynamics, the volume of world trade in goods would also grow less in 2022 (by 4.7 %, compared to a figure of almost 11 % in 2021), according to estimates from the outlook for Latin American and Caribbean countries, the region’s exports grew by 25 % in value in 2021, with a 17 % increase in export prices and an 8 % increase in the volume exported. Meanwhile, imports would have grown by 32% in value, representing the largest increase since 2010, when they expanded by the same amount.
120 115
110 105 100 95 90 85 80
75 70
2019T1 2019T2 2019T3 2019T4 North America CIS b Asia 2020T1 Exports
2020T2 2020T3 2020T4 2021T1 2021T2 2021T3
South America parts Africa 2021T4 2022T1 2022T2 2022T3 2022T4
Europcar Middle East 120 115
110 105 100 95 90 85 80
75 70
2019T1 2019T2 2019T3 2019T4 2020T1
North America CIS b Asia Imports
2020T2 2020T3 2020T4 2021T1 2021T2 2021T3 2021T4
South America parts Africa 2022T1 2022T2 2022T3 2022T4
Europcar Middle East
Note: a. Comprises Central and South America and the Caribbean. B. Comprises the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain former member states and associate member states. Fuente: WTO and UNCTAD.
After the collapse of 2020, it is estimated that import volumes grew by 20%, in line with the expansion of domestic activity in the region, both consumption and investment, and that import prices rose by 12%. Although the favorable evolution of commodity prices in 2021 translated into an estimated increase in the terms of trade of around 5% in the region, there are differences at the subregional level.
Notably, the terms of trade fell by 5% in the Caribbean (excluding Guyana, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago) and by 1% in Central America, partly as a result of the large weight of energy in the import basket of these countries. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, “the group of countries whose terms of trade increased the most is precisely that of hydrocarbon exporters (15%). Remittances continue on an upward trajectory and, after having increased by 8% in 2020, they would have increased by almost 30% in 2021”.
According to ECLAC, “they continue to be a very important source of external resources for the countries of the region, particularly for Central America, Mexico and some Caribbean countries. The services balance deficit worsened in 2021, influenced mainly by a deterioration in the transport and other services account, whose imports increased in line with the rise in goods imports”.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts world merchandise trade volume growth of 10.8% in 2021, up from 8.0% forecast in March, followed by a 4.7% increase in 2022. Supply-side challenges, such as semiconductor shortages and port delays, affect in certain areas, but are unlikely to have a material impact on global aggregates. The greatest downside risks come from the pandemic itself
Against this, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala argued, “Trade has been an essential tool in combating the pandemic, and this strong growth underscores the importance of trade in underpinning global economic recovery.”
The high annual growth rate of merchandise trade volume recorded in 2021 primarily reflects the sudden drop in the previous year, which bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020. Starting from a low point,
