Thesis Booklet 1 Water Urbanism: Towards resilient design proposals by Laura Rijsbosch

WATER URBANISM

TOWARDS RESILIENT DESIGN PROPOSALS Water urbanism in a global, changing context Master of Applied Sciences and Engineering: Architecture

2010-2011

Authors Stefanie Dens Basil Descheemaeker Pierre Eyben Michiel Geldof Jeroen Provoost Laura Rijsbosch Alexander Smedts Thibaut Visser Evelyne Wauters Promoter Prof. Dr. Kelly Shannon Co-promoter Prof. Dr. Bruno De Meulder Prof. Guido Geenen

© Copyright by K.U.Leuven Zonder voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van zowel de promotor(en) als de auteur(s) is overnemen, kopiëren, gebruiken of realiseren van deze uitgave of gedeelten ervan verboden. Voor aanvragen tot of informatie i.v.m. het overnemen en/of gebruik en/of realisatie van gedeelten uit deze publicatie, wend u tot de K.U.Leuven, Faculteit Ingenieurswetenschappen – Kasteelpark Arenberg 1, B-3001 Heverlee (België). Telefoon +32-16-32 13 50 & Fax. +32-16-32 19 88. Voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van de promotor(en) is eveneens vereist voor het aanwenden van de in dit afstudeerwerk beschreven (originele) methoden, producten, schakelingen en programma’s voor industrieel of commercieel nut en voor de inzending van deze publicatie ter deelname aan wetenschappelijke prijzen of wedstrijden. © Copyright by K.U.Leuven Without written permission of the promotors and the authors it is forbidden to reproduce or adapt in any form or by any means any part of this publication. Requests for obtaining the right to reproduce or utilize parts of this publication should be addressed to K.U.Leuven, Faculty of Engineering – Kasteelpark Arenberg 1, B-3001 Heverlee (België). Telefoon +32-16-32 13 50 & Fax. +32-16-32 19 88. A written permission of the promotor is also required to use the methods, products, schematics and programs described in this work for industrial or commercial use, and for submitting this publication in scientific contests. All images in this booklet are, unless credits are given, made or drawn by the authors (Water Urbanism Studio 2011).

WATER URBANISM

TOWARDS RESILIENT DESIGN PROPOSALS Water urbanism in a global, changing context

Thesis presented to obtain the degree of Master of Applied Sciences and Engineering: Architecture 2010-2011 AUTHORS Stefanie Dens Basil Descheemaeker Pierre Eyben Michiel Geldof Jeroen Provoost Laura Rijsbosch Alexander Smedts Thibaut Visser Evelyne Wauters PROMOTER Prof. Dr. Kelly Shannon CO-PROMOTER Prof. Dr. Bruno De Meulder Prof. Guido Geenen READERS Alvaro Del Carpio Laura Vescina Pei Wen-Chen Hung Wang Annelies De NIjs Nguyen Viet Thang Dr. Loan Pham Thuy Tuan Pham Anh

WATER URBANISM

TOWARDS RESILIENT DESIGN PROPOSALS Water urbanism in a global, changing context Master of Applied Sciences and Engineering: Architecture

WATER URBANISM

INTERNATIONAL CASE STUDIES Master of Applied Sciences and Engineering: Architecture

2010-2011

METHODOLOGY The Water Urbanism Thesis Studio forms an ongoing, multi-year series of research into how cities throughout the world interact with their unique water contexts. In this yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s instance of the studio four cities were investigated: Arequipa, Peru; Cantho and Hanoi, Vietnam; and Tainan, Taiwan. Through the concept of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;resilienceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, the aim of this thesis is a research by design on the relation of water and city in these four different contexts. Booklet one, Towards Resilient Design Proposals, opens the debate concerning water and city by investigating and comparing the four cities and their water challenges. Exploring the current discourse concerning resilience, this booklet aims to frame how the spatial notions of this concept can enrich current design strategies. The second booklet, International Case Studies, is comprised of a collection of case studies from across the globe, selected for their conceptual or contextual relevance to the themes of resilience, water and city, and relating to the designs presented throughout this studio. Following these are in-depth studies of the individual cities, focusing on the exceptional water-context each city finds itself in, and the ways in which the meeting of water and city currently occurs. These booklets conclude with a series of design projects located in the four cities, which aim to integrate resilience in these specific spatial contexts, and propose new ways in which water and city could interact. 5

PREFACE

This first booklet aims to introduce and comparatively analyze the water-specific context of the four cities. In the first chapter, Hypothesis, the term resilience is proposed as a framework on which to base this analysis. The second chapter, Expanding cities, elaborates the current situation of each city and the history of its growth In Discourse of resilience, the third chapter, a brief overview is given of the evolution of the term resilience. The following chapter, Current attitudes towards water issues, starts with a brief outline of the topic climate change. The attitudes regarding the conflict between the changing natural environment and the transforming urban structure is then illustrated by a specific situation in each of the four cities. In the final chapter, Design Adaptation, the debate is summarized by putting together the themes touched upon and framing what these themes can mean for the implementation of resilient design. 7

methodology â&#x20AC;&#x152;

preface

1 Hypothesis

2 Expanding cities

Arequipa

Cantho

Hanoi

Tainan

3 Discourse of resilience

4 Current attitudes towards water issues

4.1 The omnipresence of climate change

4.2 Three conditions, four cities

4.2.1 Peru

Arequipa

4.2.2 Vietnam

Cantho Hanoi

4.2.3 Taiwan

Tainan

5 Design adaptation

references 111

Sprawling city claiming land â&#x20AC;&#x201C; city pressure in the southern periphery of Hanoi, claiming paddy fields and reducing agricultural area, Vietnam

I. HYPOTHESIS

Hypothesis One city in the Peruvian desert, two cities nested in Vietnam’s main deltas, another one located in the narrow strip between mountains and the Taiwanese seashore. Four cities, four conditions that have shaped cultural landscapes. Arequipa expanded together with its system of agricultural canals, which diverted the water of the Chili River, making it possible to cultivate the surrounding desert. The city grew selectively, in between the irrigated terrain and the unpredictable torrents. In Cantho, the capital of the Mekong Delta, an extended water network has been the main infrastructure for centuries leading to linear settlements along waterways promoting a way of ‘living with the floods’. Hanoi, on the other hand, situated in the heart of the Red River Delta, grew as the dynamic delta conditions were mastered by raising dykes. Tainan evolved in a close relationship to water as a flourishing trading port near a fluctuating coastline. These cultural ways of dealing with water are challenged by a global trend of expanding cities and urban changes. Water in this context is facing high pressure as new development and transformed urban fabrics worsen the disbalance between water and city, leading to conflicting claims over the territory. The classic solution, of hard engineered systems such as raising dykes and canalizing streams doesn’t accomplish the goals that it promises, as the the condition of the contemporary city is linked with uncertainty. Uncertainty of what is to come in terms of future urbanization and an intrinsic uncertainty related to a changing climate. As such, this thesis builds on the hypothesis of alternative solutions that strive to work on the long run. Rooted in the landscape tradition and enriched by so-called soft engineering practices, the concept of resilience is used to address these conflicting claims. 13

Sealed soil â&#x20AC;&#x201C; horizons of urbanization in Hanoi, Vietnam

II. EXPANDING CITIES

% %

City IDs

Filling up paddy fields in the flood plain of the Red River for building purpose in Hanoi, Vietnam 21

Urban sprawl upon the arid ground near Arequipa, Peru 23

AREQUIPA 1962 - 2010 24

CAN THO 1970 - 2010

HANOI 1972 - 2010

TAINAN 1973 - 2010 25

River Agriculture 1905

Agriculture 1944 Agriculture 2010

1905 1944

1962 1978

2010

AREQUIPA The history of Arequipa starts from 1000 BC. At that time, Arequipa was more an intense place for agricultural activity with small villages for the farmer families. The city of Arequipa is actually created in 1540 with the invasion of the Spanish. The settlers built a Spanish grid on the ancient agricultural fields and irrigation canals of the Incas. The colonial city is characterized by its predetermined gridiron shape. The grid consists of identical quadrants, roughly 100 by 100 meters in dimension, stacked seven wide and seven deep. The Spanish built in the 16th century especially the infrastructure that framed the grid and some important buildings, the rest of the grid was empty and more new buildings complete the grid in time. Until almost the 20th century the city only consisted of the Spanish grid and some extensive Inca villages, surrounded by a huge surface of agricultural fields. Although Arequipa had grown into a relative large city at the start of the twentieth century, its influences was restricted to its own isolated region. The combined effect of industrialization and globalization changed that. The introduction of the train in Arequipa, the construction of the Pan-American Highway and the airport meant that Arequipa was suddenly connected to the rest of the surrounded cities. The industrialization and the globalization had a double effect on the city. An industrialization of the agriculture

in Arequipa was difficult by the topographic landscape and the globalization made import cheaper. The value of agricultural land decreased. The other effect is a rapid city expansion in the 20th and 21th century. The agricultural land became more interesting for new industry who settled them in the floodplain of the Chili River next to the historic grid. Until then, the floodplain had been preserved from developments. The accessibility of the city and a growing demand for work in the industry provided a rapid urban growth. Comparing with the most other cities in the world, the urban expansion takes over the last century and is still continuous. In the beginning of the century, the urban growth concentrated on the industrial and the existing city. A lot of these new urban expansions have taken the ancient agriculture in the river floodplain and make a former resilient landscape disappear . Later on in the century, the migration needs to move to drier grounds farther away from the city. On the flanks of the surrounded mountains arise large slums. These new city expansions are completely different. Living in a city like Arequipa is made possible by ancient Inca channels that irrigate the desert plain. Every place had easy access to water but the new city expansions on the desert havenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t access to water. Water must be pumped up which result in a loss of energy.

6 754 000

5 357 000

3 228 500 2 106 500

Total population

Urban population

Rural population

1 122 000

Urbanized agriculture during last 30 years Urbanized desert during last 30 years

The city expands upon the dry hills of the Misti volcano and the agricultural land, ignoring the former resilient landscape 29

River Orchards

Orchards Paddies

1923 1970

2010 2020

CANTHO “Unlike the rest of Vientam, the Mekong delta only has been occupied by Vietnamese for approximately three centuries. As the marshy delta was transformed into productive land for wet paddy cultivation, settlements developed linearly along waterways. [...] The landscape of the delta was characterised by patterns of dispersion and dissipation with intensified nodes of which Cantho has always been the most important one” [Shannon 2004] Because of its central position in the delta, Cantho gained importance and grew up as a regional centre for cultural and economic exchanges. At that time the city was known as ‘Tay Do’ - the ‘Western Capital’. French Colonial era (1876-1954) was responsible for enormous infrastructural works including kilometres of canals and drainage systems that put a greater amount of land under cultivation for the first time [Shannon 2004]. Cantho strategically situated at the confluence of the Cantho and the Hau Rivers became an important colonial market town. The city developed following a few principle avenues laid out in the direction of the prevailing monsoon winds with a large market structure oriented towards the waterway as the focal point of the plan [Shannon 2004]. Later on, during America’s occupation, Cantho was promoted as industrial centre and commercial liaison base for the whole delta region. It’s population greatly increased due to rural-urban migration and significant public works were carried out in the city centre. City expansion took place following two main directions : one, parallel to the Hau River to the north-west, and the other linearly to the south linking Cantho with other inland cities. Today, becoming the 21st century capital of the Mekong Delta, huge investments are made in infrastructural works and industrial development. By 2030 Cantho’s urban population is expected to have nearly doubled. Agricultural land south to the existing city centre is planned to support this massive urbanization. The accelerated urban growth poses several problems as it is severely disturbing the balance in hydraulic, ecological, agricultural and urban uses of space.

6 754 000

5 357 000

3 228 500 2 106 500 The new bridge crossing the Hau River (lower Mekong branch) and linking Cantho to Ho Chi Minh City reinforces Cantho’s position as a hinge in the infrastructure system of the Mekong Delta.

Total population

Urban population

Rural population

1 122 000

Shifting urbanity - Traditionally, the water network has been the first layer to build upon, supporting urbanity, road infrastructure, and agricultural land. Settlements are laid out along rivers and urban centers occur at the confluence of important waterways. However, Canthoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s urban expansion on its rural territory radically changes the landscape. To support new city development agricultural land, dissected by many canals and ditches is uniformly levelled and raised to attain a safer a height. In this operation, the natural resilience of the landscape is cancelled as no spatial solution is given for water management.

Lakes River

1885 Dyke

1935 1972

2002 2010

The history of Hanoi (and Vietnam in general) is characterized by several wars, which slowed down the urban development towards a metropolis. It was only after the Vietnam War which ended in 1975, and the economic liberalization (Doi Moi) in 1986, that the city started to expand tremendously. The national policy of centrally planned economy under the Soviet Communist model changed into a decentralized market economy [Kammeier et al. 2002: 374]. From that moment on, private and foreign companies could also carry out investments. This resulted in an urban population growth of 2 million in less than a decade, mostly due to immigration from other provinces and rural to urban transfer [HAIDEP 2007: 2-2]. -22 -24

The boom caused illegal occupation of land and chaos in urban development since there was no strict master plan to follow [Coulthart et al. 2006: 27]. Illegal settlements have arisen in the outside dyke area unprotected from flooding. Nowadays, approximately 160 000 inhabitants are living in this area, decreasing the space for the water [HAIDEP 2007 summary: 135]. Due to this lack of control, the city expansion is growing in a non-resilient way. Moreover, some coordinated interventions didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t follow a resilient approach. Firstly, the rapid building process has led to the disappearance of 21 of the 40 lakes in Hanoiâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s centre, which is a decrease of 330 ha of the total of 850 ha of water surface in the centre of Hanoi [Pham Anh, Shannon 2009: 7]. This process started already during the colonial period when

the French filled a lot of lakes in the centre, particularly those of symbolic importance to repress the Vietnamese culture [Logan 2000: 80]. Secondly, the construction of new buildings has led to the decrease of permeable ground. Together with the disappearance of lakes, these cause more severe inner-city floods. Lastly the tremendous population growth also resulted in problems concerning water supply. The over-exploitation of the groundwater aquifer in and around Hanoi has declined the groundwater table, which resulted in land subsidence with disastrous consequences [World Bank 2003: 48]. In the future, Hanoi will keep on growing. Without a shift towards a more resilient policy, taking into account its water issues, the water problematic will increase and cause further damage.

-26

-30 -32

year

2002

2000

1995

6 754 000

1991

groundwater depth m

-28

Groundwater level decline in Hanoi: the over-exploitation of the groundwater aquifer in and around Hanoi results in land subsidence with disastrous consequences

5 357 000 6 754 000

5 357 000

3 228 500

3 228 500 2 431 000

2 106 500

Urban population

2050

2020

2009

year

1 122 000

Rural population

1885

Population and expected population based on borders of 2007. The city of Hanoi already counts 6 472 200 inhabitants at this day [United Nations 2011]

1935

2005

Lakes left over after systematically being filled in during the years.

Total population

2007

1 122 000

1995

population

1 274 900 1 156 100

HANOI

year

Illegal settlements outside dyke - informal settlements claim room for the river, neglecting the fact that they are developed outside dyke making them prone to upcoming flood disasters. 37

Sea 2010 Sea 1983

Sea 1954 Sea 1904

1895 1945

1973 2010

Disappearance of water bodies - comparative maps show the sand banks and mud flats that were first reclaimed as productive landscapes (aquaculture and salt fields) during the Japanese occupation and later filled in due to urban pressure

TAINAN resides in the major cities along the narrow Western Coastal Plain resulting in very dense cities. [Knapp 1999:9]

DEMOGRAPHICS Tainan, located on the western plains, is the fourth largest and oldest city in Taiwan. Initially established by the Dutch as a ruling and trading base around 1621, the productive and economic potentials of the site were recognized and urban growth started to take place. After the Japanese occupation (1895-1945), the urban centers in Taiwan began to expand rapidly, including Tainan. [Jenks et al 2000:332] During decades of rapid economic growth and industrialization, urbanization took a leap. Urban life attracts many people who leave the countryside in search ‘for a modern life style’. [Wen 2008:13]

However, the population is now growing slowly and demographic numbers show that the birth rate and death rate are currently nearly equal. [Ministry of the interior Statistical information, numbers for 2010] The population is maturing, as the number of elderly people increases as a proportion of the total population. Taiwan is in a sort of midway between fully mature countries (such as Britain, France, Japan and Germany) and more demographically youthful countries (such as China, South Korea, Thailand). [Population Reference Bureau 2010] As with a number of maturing countries around the world, there is a rising concern about the social and economic consequences of a population base that stabilizes and eventually declines without significant immigration. The government is considering to provide child-raising subsidies in the future, as well as other measures, to boost population growth. [Williams, Chang 2008:12-13]

The urban growth in Taiwan has evolved in extremely dense urban patterns. With 644 People per square kilometer [Ministry of the interior Statistical information, numbers for 2010], the island today is the second most densely populated place on earth, exceeded only by Bangladesh (1142/ km²) and far in excess of other densely populated areas such as South Korea (491/ km²), the Netherlands (400/km²), and Belgium (354/km²) [Population Reference Bureau 2010]. These densities are even more striking when considering that the bulk of the total population of Taiwan

1 101 521

1 081 801

772 273

706 811

3 228 500

329 248

Total population

Urban population

Rural population

2050

2010

2007

2 106 500 1995

population

374 990

THE PRICE OF URBANIZATION Tainan has evolved from a small historical city to a dense metropolitan area, which has led to an abundance of concrete surfaces, disappearing inner-city rivers and canalizations of natural watercourses. The expansion has led to the disappearance of adjacent agricultural fields and fishponds and the extension of the road network and introduction of the high speed rail has brought massive urban sprawl. As Tainan is trying to boost its economic development with the planning of several technological and industrial parks around the city core, the city is facing the challenges of modernization and globalization in the twenty-first century. [Jenks et al 2000:332] This pursuit will have large-scale consequences for the productive landscape and threaten the ecological environment. Today, the agricultural industry is declining and fields are increasingly being abandoned – resulting in a landscape of scattered patches of deserted land. [Wen 2008:13] As witnessed in the city core of Tainan, the role of water and resilient design has been largely neglected in favor of fast economic growth. The last decades 754 000 government started to the 6Taiwanese reconsider the development of urban watercourses to establish a more sustainable environment. In addition to this 5 357upgrading, 000 inner-city a clear vision for the (limits to) urban expansion is crucial. Urban sprawl is damaging fragile landscapes and threatening ecological balances on a larger scale. In combination with the predicted impacts of climate change, Tainan is facing serious environmental challenges and urgently requires adaptive strategies for its development towards a more resilient (urban) landscape.

year

1 122 000

Congested Cities - a view on a street in Tainan City. Sixty years ago there was a river running through this street. A segment has been filled up, the other part remains as an underground sewerage channel. 41

Resilient agriculture system - the Incan agricultural terraces at Moray, Peru

III. DISCOURSE OF RESILIENCE

Discourse of resilience In the last decennia, urbanism has expanded its domain, integrating aspects of a wide spectrum of other fields. In line with this emerging multidisciplinary nature, it has also started to borrow ideas and concepts from these external domains of research. However, borrowing concepts between disciplines is never a completely neutral process, and it is in the translation of a concept from one field to another that it is often given new meaning. This is also the case for the concept of resilience. Over time, this term has featured in the discourse of multiple fields, thereby collecting a variety of sometimes conflicting definitions. In order to fully understand the various meanings of the term which are employed today, this essay will first give a brief overview of the evolution of the discourse surrounding it, followed by an analysis of what the relationship between resilience and urbanism and design is today.

Resilience in ecology The term resilience was first removed from its mechanical context â&#x20AC;&#x201C; wherein it refers to an objectâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ability to recoil after a perturbation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and introduced into systems theory, by C.S. Holling in 1973 [Klein et al. 2003: 39]. In his article Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems, Holling, as an ecologist, uses the term to explore the dynamics of ecological systems, focusing on the factors influencing the growth and decline of animal populations, in particular the ways in which species avoid extinction when exposed to

Ecological Resilience

Engineering Resilience A curved landscape with two steady states as visualized by Carpenter and Scheffer. A disturbance moves the system state, represented by the position of the ball, away from its steady state. A domain with high ecological resilience has a broad range of possible system states, wherein the ball will return to the same steady state. The slope of the curve represents the engineering resilience which determines the speed in which the ball returns.

variable surroundings. In Holling’s examples human activities are often viewed as a main disturbance (in the form of pollution, encroachment upon natural habitats, etc.), but are placed outside of the actual system: they are strictly external factors. Holling considers a main factor in the survival of species to be resilience, which he defines as “a measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables.” [Holling 1973: 14]. He contrasts this concept with that of stability: “the ability of a system to return to an equilibrium state after a temporary disturbance; the more rapidly it returns and the less it fluctuates, the more stable it would be.” [Holling 1973: 14]. Holling argues that these two properties are often inversely related as a result of evolutionary history: a highly resilient system will tend to display low stability, and vice-versa [Holling 1973: 18]. Later in his career, Holling makes a distinction between two types of resilience – ecological resilience and engineering resilience – which continues on his views about resilience and stability [Gunderson 2000: 426]. In these definitions ecological resilience is “the magnitude of disturbance that can be absorbed before the system redefines its structure by changing the variables and processes that control behaviour”, which is similar to the resilience he defined in 1973. [Gunderson 2000: 426] Engineering resilience lies closer to Holling’s original use of the term stability, and is defined as “the time required to return to an equilibrium or steady state, after a perturbation.”[Gunderson 2000: 426] An important difference between these definitions is that engineering resilience implies that there is only one equilibrium, whereas ecological engineering holds that multiple steady states are possible.

The concept of a system in which certain combinations of parameter-values create multiple steady states towards which the system tends to gravitate, is visualized by both Carpenter (1997) and Scheffer (1993) using the heuristic of a ball – whose position indicates the system state – in a curved landscape consisting of of “cups”, each of which represent one stability domain. A steady state is located at the bottom of each cup [Gunderson 2000: 427]. An ecologically resilient zone is then one in which a wide variety of systems states are all attracted to one equilibrium, whereas a zone which has a high amount of engineering resilience is characterized by its steep slopes, enabling influenced system states to return to their steady state more rapidly. Gunderson [2000: 427] further implies that these stability domains are dynamic and can be modified by both natural and human factors. The ability of an ecosystem to stay in its stability domain while the shape of the cup changes, is referred to by Gunderson as adaptive capacity [Gunderson 2000: 428]. Two other important aspects of ecosystems, both of which are seen as characteristics that positively influence the systems’ resilience, are their ability to self-organize, and their biodiversity [Gunderson 2000: 430]. Self-organization refers to a system’s ability to reorganize and rebuild its structure following a collapse of the system. This collapse is mostly due to an external disturbance in combination with an internally induced reduction of the system’s resilience [Gunderson 2000: 430]. Biodiversity is said to increase a system’s “cross scale resilience”: “Species combine to form an overlapping set of reinforcing influences that help spread risks and benefit widely to retain overall consistency performance independent of wide fluctuations in the individual 49

species” [Gunderson 2000: 430]. According to Gunderson [2000: 431], this redundancy of species creates robustness in the system. The idea is that when the system is made up of a wide variety of actors, the system will continue to function when one of the actors is missing. This implies that the function of the missing link is easily taken over by another, similar actor. However, one has to take into account the possible interdependency between the different actors in this system, which could undo this benefit of complexity (the flatness principle of Wildavsky 1988 [Barnett 2001: 985]). Both the self-organization ability and the biodiversity of a system, allow it to adapt to unpredictable events that are inherent in ecosystems, thereby making it more resilient.

The diffusion of resilience Over time the concept of resilience was adopted by other disciplines. Timmerman, in 1981, was among the first to use the term resilience in the context of sociological systems, tying it to the vulnerability of societies to climate change. He defines resilience, paraphrased by Klein et al., as: “the measure of a system’s or part of a system’s capacity to absorb and recover from the occurrence of a hazardous event” [Klein et al. 2003: 39]. Pelling continues in this direction, focusing strongly on the political and socio-economic structures in society that influence its resilience vis-à-vis external, natural forces. According to Pelling, in order for a sociological system to be resilient, it has to have the capacity to plan and prepare for potential hazards in order to cope with and adapt to the hazard stress. This capacity depends largely on the society’s capacity to learn from past hazards and to adapt accordingly. [Pelling 2003: 48] However, Pelling does point out that this adaptation is not necessarily always a path to progress [Pelling 2003: 7]. 51

The extent to which a society is capable of planning and learning is termed the adaptive capacity of the sociological system by Carpenter et al. [2001: 765-766].

The fact that a human system can prepare for a potential hazard is also an important aspect in the use of resilience by Dovers and Handmer. In their work about the connection between sustainability, uncertainty and risks, the authors distinguish between the reactive and proactive resilience of a society. Proactive resilience considers change and shocks in society to be inevitable, and aims to create a system that is able to adapt to new conditions and imperatives [Klein et al. 2003: 39; quoting Dovers and Handmer 1992]. This proactive resilience makes use of the capacity of a society to learn from past events and to anticipate coming events. A society which relies on reactive resilience, on the other hand, â&#x20AC;&#x153;approaches the future by strengthening the status quo and making the present resistant to changeâ&#x20AC;? [Klein et al. 2003: 39]. This view makes a strong distinction between a sociological system and an environmental (or ecological) system, in which the first has to protect itself against the latter.

Inter-related systems During this same time period, another key idea was coming to the fore: that of the interrelations between human and ecological systems.

One of the pioneering events in this development was the publication of The Limits to Growth for the Club of Rome in 1972. This book challenged the at that time prevalent notion that economic and population growth could continue indefinitely, by illustrating the exhaustibility of the natural resources this growth was based on. In 1987 Our Common Future, also known as the Brundtland Report, went a step further, warning not only for a depletion of resources, but also for the possible effects that the man-wrought degeneration of ecosystems in general could have on mankind in turn [Cavalieri 2010: 93]. The following year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded to investigate what environmental effects human activities were causing on a world scale. This idea quickly found a way into the discourse surrounding resilience. In fact, in Klein et al.’s opinion, “[t]he most important development over the past thirty years is the increasing recognition across the disciplines that human and ecological systems are interlinked and that their resilience relates to the functioning and interaction of the systems” [Klein et al. 2003: 40].

In search of a spatial definition of resilience Today a variety of institutions concerning themselves with development have incorporated the term resilience into their discourse, extending the already broad range of different definitions of the word. Each institution puts forward its own definition, but there are various similarities to be found between them. One commonly defined aspect of resilient systems is their ability to “reach and maintain an acceptable level of function and structure” after a change or hazard [see Prasad et al. 2009: 31, UN/ISDR 2004: 16], which resembles 55

disturb: sea level rising

adaptation strategy: resistance

adaptation strategy: resilience

A spatial definition of resilience as seen by Cavalieri

fig.2: Sea level rising. Graphic example of resilient and resistant adaptation 94

Hollingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s original definition. Additionally, they all refer to the abilities of self-organization and the capacity to learn from past and adapt to future shocks, as important aspects of resilience. Especially the Word Bank and the UN/ISDR seem to see these shocks as external hazards threatening the development and functioning of society. These institutions have translated their definitions of resilience into a wide variety of guidelines and policies for development and hazard risk reduction.

But because such a large part of the current-day discussion revolves around defining resilience-related policies and around the semantics of the term resilience itself (see [Klein et al. 2003]), one would almost forget that human and ecological systems are also spatial structures, and that the interplay between them has a large spatial component. Rising sea levels, desertification, deforestation, the disappearance of permeable green space in and around cities, etc.: these are, at an urban scale, spatial problems, requiring spatial solutions. But it is precisely at this point that the institutional discussion seems to falter. It appears that what is really lacking in the current discourse is a spatial definition of resilience, a type of definition which does not have the same luxury of ambiguity as do the wide variety of available theoretical interpretations.

Hard engineering - damming of the Hou-Tang-Kou creek (tributary of the Yanshuei River) shows that hard engineering is still common practice, Tainan City, Taiwan

IV. CURRENT ATTITUDES TOWARDS WATER ISSUES

Air pollution near the Bolognesi Bridge in Arequipa, Peru

World Taiwan (no data available) Vietnam Peru CO2 emission (kiloton) between 1990-2007 on logarithmic scale according to CIA

CO2 N 2O CH4 Green house gases in the last 2000 years according to Worldbank

Mapping various weather related catastrophes between 1900 and 2000 60

4.1 The omnipresence of climate change

The surface of the earth and therefore nature are influenced by the earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s temperature, which is variable in time. The past learned that our climate varied between ice ages and shorter warmer periods. These fluctuations are natural, but over the last centuries human activities have largely contributed resulting in extreme weather conditions such as floods, tsunamis, unusual droughts, sea level rise, etc. A contributing factor to the changes in our climate are the so-called greenhouse gasses: CO, CO2, N2O and CH2. These gasses can partially be absorbed by nature, but as there is an increased discharge and a decrease of absorbing surfaces the greenhouse effect has strengthened over the last decades. With the deforestation of the rainforest in Brazil for example, the earth has lost a huge absorbing capacity and is responsible for 6% of the CO2 emissions in the world [UN HABITAT 2010].

The impact of urbanization is not to be neglected as cities keep on sprawling over the earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s surface, reducing its absorption capacity by sealing it with concrete. This way cities impact on climate change can be compared to cooking islands, as cities have a high density of non-absorbing concrete, a high rate of greenhouse gas emission and a large amount of energy consumption. The main contributing factors of the cities discharge are their industrial areas, their high density of housing, and their enormous transportation system with traffic flows. Some of the short-term effects of climate change are already visible, as tropical storms and floods became more significant then ever before, threatening both cities and environment. The water bodies that once supported the cities growth now render them vulnerable as the frequency, severity and location of these short term effects differ from the past [World Bank 2008]. 61

LONG-TERM EFFECTS The long-term effects of climate change are starting to pronounce themselves as well as sea levels are rising, droughts are becoming more severe and widespread, an the polar ice is melting. These effects cause a disturbance in nature on a larger scale An increase in the average water temperature makes the artic ice caps melt, resulting in a decreasing water density, which makes the sea level rise. Since the thermal capacity of water is bigger than that of land, sea level rise is an unstoppable process. As more than half of the population lives within 60km from the seaside, and 75 per cent of all large cities are located on the coast, this is one of the most threatening effects [UN HABITAT 2010]. Coastal infrastructures will be inundated and saline intrusion will pollute groundwater recourses.

The increase of the global surface warming in the future is varying in different models according to IPPC

Inner land will be affected as well. An increase of the average temperature generates droughts and leads to disturbances in natural habitats. For the case of the Andes Mountains, this droughts are threatening isolated cities, which have their only access to water by small rivers and springs in the desert landscape. [World Bank 2008]

Global average temperature change according to IPCC

Map indicating susceptibility of countries to decreased fresh water availability in 2011

Map indicating susceptibility of countries to decreased fresh water availability in 2050

Map indicating susceptibility of countries to desertification in 2011

Map indicating susceptibility of countries to desertification in 2050

AREQUIPA, Peru The problematic of non-existing water 64

CAN THO, Vietnam From water to road based urbanity

4.2 Three conditions, four cities

This chapter analyses how our cities deal with their sitespecific, water-related hazards. These hazards must be understood as the confrontation between a transforming natural system with an expanding city in a particular context. Moreover, as current trends try to solve the conflicting claims by means of enhancing the cities' resisting capacity, this chapter is also an exercise in mapping the absence of resilience. We will run through each country, starting with a short analysis of the specific climate change phenomena.

HANOI, Vietnam

TAINAN, Taiwan

Interplay between floods and dykes

Flood prevention and mitigation practices 65

In the emptiness of the dry desert landscape in Peru irrigates a small river the entire river valley into a viable resilience habitat.

4.2.1 Peru: Arequipa Arequipa is located in the dessert in the Andes Mountains. The city is located near the river Chili and is surrounded by 3 huge vulcanoes: Misti, Chachani and Picchu Picchu, each with their peak at about 6000 meters above sea level. The river is necessary to get water into the city and to make the city livable. The water is used by power plants to generate energy for the city, for drink water for the inhabitants and for agricultural purposes. The surrounding rural places, called ‘chacras’ are getting water by means of a genius old Inca canal system which creates a livable green city in the driest desert of the world. A city such as Arequipa is strongly depending on the supply of water from the river and it often has to deal with torrential rain falls. The rain that falls on its surrounding mountains flows down in many torrents which cross the urban fabric to find a way to the river. In the Andes, the runoff from glaciated basins is an important element of the regional water supply. It is essential for the integrity of mountain ecosystems. Most of the Andean valleys, such as e.g. the Arequipa valley, are most of the time very dry and the water supply is depending on the runoff of the glaciers. Glaciers are like natural water basins, stocking liquid water in solid form and the runoff in liquid form is practically continuous. Recent research shows that climate change will be more

intense in high elevation mountain ranges [Bradley 2006]. The increase of the average temperature would be stronger in the Andes and that is very critical for the glaciers and hence the entire biosphere in the Andes [Worldbank 2009]. “In Peru, glaciers covered an area of 2041 km² in 1970 but had declined nearly 22% to 1595 km² by 1977 [Inrena 2006]. The largest of these glaciers in the Cordilla Blanca has lost 15% of its glacier surface area in a period of 30 years. Many of the smaller glaciers in the Andes have already been heavily affected and other are likely to completely disappear within a generation.” [Worldbank 2009 p. 60] The decrease of water coming from glaciers in the rivers will create a shortage of water flow for power plants, agriculture, drinking water and will impact the integrity of the ecosystem. The increase in the global average surface temperatures is a more long-term phenomenon of the climate change. As the high air temperature increases, the evaporation of water will increase, which will impact compounded local rainfalls, such as El Niño [Worldbank 2008]. These short torrential rain falls are very dangerous for Arequipa. The rain collects in torrents which run from surrounding mountains through the city to the river, resulting in floods, erosion and landslides around these torrents.

Desert

1983

Desertificated

1966

1998

Desertification in process

1963

1972

Total rainfall in January and February (mm)

The problematic of non-existing water

Until 50 years ago, before the city became densely populated, the built areas were located at a safe distance from the torrents. Since 1940 Arequipa has expanded a great deal and the rapidly growing population pushed the city closer to the torrent banks. More than half of the build up area today consists of informal housing. A general problem in the development of the city is the invasion of these informal settlements in the dangerous areas as the torrents.

Distribution of torrents near Arequipa

Torrent section San Lazaro anno 1300DC Built areas at safe distance from the torrent

Torrent section San Lazaro anno 2010DC: City pushed closer to the torrent banks threatens the resilience

The invasions take on different forms depending the economic level of the development that neighbours it. Middle class developments try to domesticate the torrents by reducing their width and canalizing them with concrete walls. This process of domestication in certain areas is dangerous because of the higher velocities that the storm water will reach, these velocities will cause the torrent to erode more rapidly. This results in damage of houses and infrastructure, every time a torrent floods.

Arequipa

Newspaper articles emphasize the still existing problematic of the torrents in Arequipa. Heavy rainfall and floods cause a lot of damage each time due to a lack of resilience. There doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t seem to be any improvement after all those years.

Soft-torrent typology: expansion of informal settlements into the torrent

TORRENT ATTITUDE OUTSIDE THE CITY no resilience nor resistance Along the fringes of Arequipa, the torrents generally remain in their raw, natural state. By lying in rural or semirural areas it was easy to give them the necessary space. The torrents could flood their natural boundaries without a risk of human injury or of large material damage. As timed passed on, the city grew and became more and more populated. Previously rural areas now became the suburbs of Arequipa and a change came into the attitude towards the torrents. This city growth has made space scarce, causing encroaching upon the torrent â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;â&#x20AC;&#x2122;banksâ&#x20AC;? and in the torrent itself. Poor, informal settlements expand into these torrents because they are the only open areas available and affordable for building near the city centre. These torrents become dangerous sites in case of heavy rainfall and therefore are generally the places with the lowest value.

Informal housing invading the risk zone of the torrent San Lazaro 70

Every time the torrent floods, a great amount of houses get damaged or even get flushed away. This becomes an annual repeating system without any resilience. Enhancing resilience is the key to reducing vulnerability of natural hazards as torrential floods. Originally developed as an ecological concept, resilience should be introduced in the human-environment interactions of dealing with the torrents. A system that responds to hazard occurrence, including to absorb the impact, adapt, recover and reorganize after the floods, without changing its fundamental functions.

TORRENT ATTITUDE IN THE CITY resistance by hard engineering

At first, new developments and infrastructural works kept their distance from the torrents, but as the available space diminished, new projects crept closer to the torrent. Gradually, the torrent itself became a location for increasing amounts of road-infrastructure. It is clear that as the amount and size of the roads has grown, the width available to the torrent has constantly diminished. The process is always similar: the broad path of the torrent is reduced to a narrow, canalized section, and roads are placed on the newly â&#x20AC;&#x153;gainedâ&#x20AC;? terrain. Originally wide, natural cuts in the landscape, the torrents have been restrained to concrete canals. By this hard engineering approach, they try to control the torrents. It remains to be seen however, whether the water itself will accept this limitation. The encounter of torrents and heavy road infrastructure

Section of hard engineered torrent together with heavy road infrastructure

City-torrent typology: torrents restrained to concrete canals

A torrent in its most sinister form: rushing down on the city from the top of the Misti Volcano

2010

Cantho

50cm SLR

Cantho

Of 84 coastal developing countries investigated in terms of sea level rise, Vietnam ranks first in terms of impact on population, wetlands, urban extend and agriculture [Dasgupta et al. 2007] 74

Flooding, a major issue in the Mekong Delta is predicted to become more severe as rainfall increases and seawater level is rising. Cantho, with its central position in the delta will intensely feel those changes. Furthermore as so-called climate refugees may migrate from surrounding flooded areas, safe land in Cantho could be under high pressure.

4.2.2 Vietnam: Cantho & Hanoi Vietnam’s particular geography and topography, a land of two deltas stretching an elongated coastline of 3260km in which 114 rivers run off, makes it extremely vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. According to a World Bank study evaluating the impact of sea level rise on 84 coastal developing countries, Vietnam ranks first in terms of impact on population, GDP, urban and wetland areas [Dasgupta et al. 2007]. Another study, based on the economics of climate change, confirms Vietnam’s high vulnerability to a rising seawater level with about 55% of the country’s population living in low-elevation coastal zones (less than 10 metres above sea level) [Stern 2006 in Waibel 2010]. Particularly, the two densely populated delta regions will be affected: it is predicted that a 1m sea level rise will flood more than 20 000 km² of the Mekong Delta [IPCC 2007: 59]. Saline water intrusion that is already a problem in those regions will only worsen regarding those predictions.

Can Tho

Hanoi

Furthermore, climate change includes an increased probability of extreme weather events such as floods or heat waves as well as more gradual changes in temperature and precipitation [Mukheibir & Ziervogel 2007 in Waibel 2010]. The annual total rainfall will increase in the whole country, probably up to 10 percent in the Red River Delta in 2050 [World Bank 2010: 63]. In contradiction with the water overload during wet season, Vietnam contends with water shortage during dry season, with only 20-30 percent of the yearly water available [World Bank 2010: 55]. Concerning the Mekong Delta, investigations of the START centre of Chulalongkorn University predicts a rising water level that could be twice as high as the estimated sea level rise as it combines 5 important elements: upstream flood, local rainfall, sea level rise, north-east wind and the spin from the equator. [DeNijs 2010] Cantho, geographically central in this region will intensely be hit by those consequences. Furthermore, safe land that would already be reduced, could be under high pressure as so-called climate refugees may migrate from surrounding areas.

Trends in water levels and temperature. Over the last decades, temperatures and water levels clearly increased both for Cantho and Hanoi confirming national and international trends with regards to climate change.

Hanoi, situated in the Red River Delta, is facing similar predictions as for Cantho. Its mayor problem concerns the increase in severity and frequency of floods caused by heavy rainfall. The problem is exacerbated by its extensive dyke system along the river. In November 2008 the city had to cope with the most extreme inner-city flood to date, with the dykes preventing the water to flow off into the river [Pham Anh 2009: 7]. Flooded street in Hanoi 75

Raised land in Hung Phu - In order to prevent from flooding and to support new urbanization land level is raised by 2 to 3 meters. Canals and ditches are indiscriminately filled, exacerbating flood-related problems as low-land cannot fulfil its water-storing function anymore and no other water-buffering spaces are planned +4,5m +2,4m existing: +1,3m ASML

From water to road based urbanity

Hung Phu, an area of approximately 2080 ha situated on the southern bank of the Cantho River is expected to support massive urbanization in the coming years. Located in one of the lowest area of Cantho province it is particularly prone to flooding. Therefore, low land is raised and water bodies are filled. The desire to resist flooding in turns cancels the natural resilience of the landscape as the flow path of run-off is blocked and the utility of lowlying areas as retention ponds for higher run-off is hindered.

Since the organisation of the hydraulic system is dissociated from urban planning, while water related issues are solved in a rather technical and preferably invisible way by hydraulic engineers, Hung Phu becomes a neutral support for the generic implemenetation of general urban models and international standards. The rhetorics and implementation of a new, road-based urbanity in a water saturated landscape poses serious questions in terms of water management, ecological impact and effective response to climate change predictions.

Cantho

The failure in recognizing the specificity of Canthoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s water scape and the negation of the water issue as a major strategy makes current urban development particularly vulnerable. Moreover, in the light of climate change predictions, the city will get more flood prone, in addition to that, a growing urban population will increase drastically the amount of wastewater, while buffering capacities are not necessarily present [OSA 2010]. Therefore, an uncertain and fluctuating water level calls for new, adaptive design strategies to address the coming densification while integrating the water issue.

EXISTING

NEW DEVELOMENT

Sand is poured onto the area enclosed by clay dykes to attain the prescribed safe level

TOWARDS RESILIENCE 77

IMAGE TOP Building the edge - Traditionally the edge between water and land is not seen as a frontier. When needed, houses expand on water. IMAGE LEFT Landfill in Hung Phu - As the soil of the Mekong Delta is very soft and contains a great amount of organic material, constructions necessitate huge investments in foundational works.

Hanoi

floodplain without dykes floodplain with dykes

water dyke

Floods area of the Red River Delta

0 2 5

15 km

Hanoi

An interplay between floods and dykes Hanoi is very vulnerable for flooding because of its location in the floodplain of the Red River Delta. Due to heavy rainfall, the water level of the Red River fluctuates between 2 and 14 metres above sea level. To protect the settlements from flooding, a whole dyke system has been developed since the establishment of the city. Hanoi knows an old and changeable history. 1000 years ago, King Ly Thai To conquered the Chinese, who ruled at that moment the area, and established a new empire. Hanoi was chosen as the new capital because of its special location according to King Ly Thai To: â&#x20AC;&#x153;This location had a position of a coiling dragon, a squatting tiger, in a favourable relationship to mountains and rivers, a crucial convergence centre of the four cardinal pointsâ&#x20AC;? [Tong Trung Tin, 2006: 185]. Thus Feng shui was the main persuasion for the location of the city, not the safety of the area. From the beginning, the city was surrounded by an earthen rampart system, to protect it from invaders, but also to protect it from the water of the river. The first real dyke of Hanoi is constructed in 1108 at Co Xa. Under the next dynasties, the dyke system was further developed. In 1248 the Le Dynasty ordered to transform the dyke system from a separated one only surrounding the settlements themselves into a continuous line along the whole delta. This system caused more devastating floods as the constricted channel increased the water flow. [Pham Anh 2010: 21].

Dyke developments in time After heavy floods, dyke improvements were carried out to be able to resist the next flood.

During the colonial period from 1873 to 1945, the French examined the whole dyke system and underlined the necessity to improve the dykes in order to decrease the amount of dyke bursts [Gauthier 1930: 9]. They elaborated a new dyke profile and heightened the existing dykes. But still it was insufficient during heavy floods. The most disastrous flood during the colonial period was in 1945 when a big flood inundated several densely populated provinces of the Red River. In 1945, Ho Chi Minh leaded the revolution against the French and Northern Vietnam became independent. The North Vietnamese State accomplished big restoration works of the dyke. The dykes were heightened by a concrete wall to resist floods up to 13.30 meters [Nguyen 1999: 10; Pham Anh, Shannon 2009a: 9]. The years after, two other big floods in 1971 and 2008 occurred and again the dyke system failed to resist the water. Nowadays, the idea is to heighten the dyke once more with 2 metres.

after 1926 1883 - 1926 before 1883

dyke in imperial era

flood 1926

In time, flood events and dyke developments are linked together, after a heavy flood, lot of damage has occured on the dykes, Rather than collaborating together, dykes and floods are trying to resist each other. dyke developments flood events * The floods from 1000 to 1800 are registered in Nam Dinh.

dyke works colonial period

dam socialist period 1970

A returning phenomenon in the history of Hanoi is the interplay between flood events and dyke developments. The two compete against each other, always trying to resist the other. The question rises if this strategy of resistance is the best solution to handle the flood problem. Especially today when due to climate change, more and more flooding will occur, there are increasing instances of rains heavier than 100mm/hour.

flood 2008

dyke works 2010

Another factor important for flood prevention is the construction of the Hnghe Hanizu Yizu Dam in China. If at some point the dam has to open to prevent a dam failure, an enormous amount of water will flow through the Red River and no dyke will be able to resist this disaster. Moreover, the rapid urbanisation nowadays makes the ground more and more impermeable. During heavy rain, the soil isn’t able to absorb the water any longer. Canalisation has to lead the water out of the city, but the system is strongly overloaded. In the end, the water will drain off into the river, but because of the dyke system, pumps are necessarily to pump the water from one side to the other side of the dyke. The flood of 2008 showed spectacularly that the whole system wasn’t able to manage the drainage. Only heightening the dyke isn’t enough to prevent flooding since the problem is at both sides of the dyke. New ways of water management has to be developed and the whole water network has to be taking into account. Hanoi can not exist without the dyke system, but the dyke system can not be the unique element of the water management against flooding. All these factors lead to a strong need for space for the water.

Flood caused by torrential rainfall after typhoon Morakot striked Tainan city in 2009 - This storm dropped approximately a yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s worth of rain on the island in just four days [Central Weather Bureau], which resulted in devastating flooding and landslides that claimed more than six hundred lives.

4.2.3 Taiwan: Tainan IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE Over the last century, Taiwan witnessed the impact of global warming. Both the annual and daily temperature ranges have increased and there has been an island-wide warming trend (1.0-1.4Â°C/100 years) [Teng et al 2006: p6] These trends affect the three mechanisms that put sea level rise in motion, namely the thermal expansion of sea water temperature, the melting of glacier ice, and tectonic changes. [Lu, Chen 2010:155] Before the 19th century, the rising sea level trend was not significant according to field observation records. Recent studies have shown that the sum of sea level rises from the 1st to the 19th century is less than the total sea level rise in the 20th century alone. It is also predicted that this trend will develop faster in the future. [Metz 2007:237] Sea level rise has a great impact on an island state such as Taiwan, where most urban areas are located in low-lying plains near the coast. As coastal zones will have to deal with greater amounts of water and increased saline intrusion, present land uses as well as the spatial distribution

of the population will be considerably influenced. Existing tidal ecologies might be drastically altered and fresh water supply will become increasingly difficult. Urban water management will have to address these issues and take into consideration the impacts for industrial and agricultural water uses. Existing drainage and irrigation systems will be threatened as saline intrusion through the water networks will change the salt water estuary. [Lu, Chen 2010:157]

of typhoons per year. There has been measured a decrease in rainfall periods, but with significantly larger quantities of precipitation [Wen 2009:15]. According to the Central Weather Bureau, the number of floods that hit Taiwan has increased from 3 times a year in the 1970s to 5,6 times a year in the late 1990s. Although the government has increased investments in flood mitigation works, losses due to flood damage did not decrease in general [Wu 1995 in CHEN et al 2006: pp 108].

WATER RELATED DISASTERS

The higher frequency of disasters such as Typhoon Morakot in 2009, is also expected to become more extreme with global warming [Gao 2010:12]. Taiwan is researching innovative ways to address this challenge. However, due to its unique political situation, Taiwan hasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t been able to seek participation in the meetings and activities of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As such, the country misses out on the world debate concerning an issue that every country has to face and should be addressed both locally and globally.

Located in the monsoon zone of South-East Asia, 78% of the precipitation concentrates in monsoon and typhoon seasons from May to October [Water Resources Agency 2010]. The typhoons occur on average 3,5 times a year and bring torrential rainfall which causes serious inundation [Wen 2008:15]. The torrential rainfall can trigger flash floods and combined with the limited amount of absorptive surfaces in cities, urban flood risks are high [Chou 2009:91]. The impact of climate change has repercussions for the quantity and intensity

Consequences of disasters - Weather patterns in Taiwan seem to be changing, with landslides brought on by heavy rainfall one year and drought the next. [Hwang 2008:42] This photograph shows an extensive river area of mudslide following Typhoon Morakot in Kaohsiung County, southern Taiwan in 2009.

Typhoon Fanapi 2010 - During summer when the southwestern monsoon comes in force, thunderstorms and typhoons carry heavy rain to central and southern Taiwan. This intensive and concentrated summer rainfall, which constitutes up to 80 percent of annual precipitation, often causes flooding and landslides. 85

Flood prevention and mitigation practices First steps towards adaptive strategies

Climate change is tangible in the intensity of the torrential rainfall that typhoons bring. During typhoon Kalmaegi in 2008 for example, floods in more than 14 places already exceeded the predicted 200-year flood frequency. [Water Resource Agency 2010] “Increasingly extreme weather demands new thinking and water management methods. (…) [Climate change] is making the reckoning of flood frequency a myth, it is time to stop exploiting land and rivers and for people to learn again to live with water rather than try to conquer it.” [Ting Cheh-shyh in Tsai 2009] Although hard engineering is still a common practice in Taiwan for flood prevention and mitigation (building of massive dikes in Taipei, sea walls for sea level rise, etc…), in recent years more resilient methods have been introduced, aiming at adaptivity and evacuation (such as flood warning systems) [Teng et al 2006:3]. The National Science and Technology Program for Hazards Mitigation (NAPHM) launched the inundation potential database. [Chen et al 2006:110] This project describes disaster countermeasures including preparedness, emergency response, recovery and reconstruction. Based on flood maps, the governments develops comprehensive flood control measures to mitigate the disaster impacts. [Chen et al 2006:111] Several flood-prone regions have been identified and assigned as areas where no (further) urbanization is allowed and water bodies should get space to expand in the wet season. 86

Typhoons cause rivers and channels to overflow in the extent that the whole neighborhood drops over to try to catch a fish in the flood.

Tainan

TAINAN SCIENCE PARK DETENTION PONDS In 1997, Tainan Science-Based Industrial Park was launched in the north-east of Tainan City as the expansion site of Hsinchu Science Park. The industrial park focuses on hi-tech and eco-industries. It incorporates an endangered bird conservation area, different parks and lakes. Yet, all these facilities have resulted not directly from the original plan but rather from a series of unexpected challenges. [Kung, Chen 2008:2] The site is located around the drainage channels of the Yanshuei River system, which were originally constructed in the Japanese era to collect the excess of rain- and irrigation water. The planned area was located in one of the most lowlying plains of the region, resulting in a very high flood risk. A serious inundation problem was therefore observed when the land use was changed from agricultural land into industrial and urban land. [Chen et al 2007:3497] Because the high rate of urbanization and limited land area, a series of detention ponds was implemented to reduce the flood damages. Detention ponds are small impoundments of water with a capacity of 10 acre or less (4,05 hectares) [Chen et al 2007:3492].The purpose of installing detention ponds is to regulate the outflow of the catchment back to its original state, prior to the

developments. Detention ponds can also contribute to environmental and ecological conservations, especially in the prevention of flood pollution. After a water has accumulated in a detention pond from a heavy rain period, it is either re-used elsewhere in the park, or is led to drain into the Yanshuei River. [Chiu 2000:2] Since the installation of the detention ponds, both the inundated area and inundated depth have decreased significantly in the Tainan Science Park. The upstream Feng-Hua detention pond has also resulted in a significant decrease in flood damages along the Yanshuei creek in the downstream reach. [see Chen et al 2007:3492] Regarding the different land uses of the science park (industry, urban, fishponds, agriculture, parks) the detention ponds can reduce the flood damages as much as 42,8 billion NTD (is 1,05 billion euros, for a flood with a 10 year return period) [Chen et al 2007:3501]. Although the effectiveness of the detention ponds has already been proved over the last years, the area is still very sensitive to further expansion of the industrial park. With further urbanization, more detention ponds will be necessary and measures need to be taken to re-assure the balance of the permeable and impermeable surfaces.

Aerial view of Tainan Science-Based Industrial Park

Detention pond at the Tainan Science-based Industrial Park - The water had accumulated in the pond after Typhoon Bilis slammed into Taiwan and had been added to by recent heavy rains. The water is either put to use elsewhere in the park, or is left to run out into the sea. 87

Floating market - urban scenery on the water in Cantho, Vietnam

IV. DESIGN ADAPTATION

Design Adaptation Fortify to protect Our conventional response to a hazard has till recently been one of fighting and resisting in means of a strategy that aims at fortifying to protect. Dykes have been built and land has been raised as a response to flooding and concrete basins have been engineered to prevent torrential rainwater demolishing a neighbourhood. A blind believe in technology has been the safeguard in an attempt to resist natural forces by implementing hard engineered solutions. Solutions that have helped on a short term, but neglected the consequences arising in the long run. Even worse, as hard engineering made it possible to cultivate the desert, it also supported settlements to be raised in places that would have otherwise been barren, thereby creating cities depending on that one and only man made system. As Oppenheimer states: â&#x20AC;&#x153;we have reconfigured and hardened the coast, building sea walls and filling wetlands, drawing a hard line between the water and ourselves, â&#x20AC;Ś but despite our best efforts, the city and the water remain one organismâ&#x20AC;? [Oppenheimer 2010 : 1] What Oppenheimer says gets at the core of the current debate; it is a charge against the attitude man has taken over time facing hazards. These hard lines we have been creating in order to be able to protect ourselves to natural hazards on the short term, now become the edges where the notion of water and urbanism are challenged most. These hard edges became the front lines of battle. A global rethinking of the notion of the edge and limit has to be made in order to get rid of the black-white situation we have been building.

Yen So Pumping Station along the Red River dyke, Hanoi 95

Now the world is warming Most big cities are found near a natural recourse, such as a river or a sea, though this fact is often neglected by its citizens till a storm demolishes their houses, an earthquake shivers their grounds or a flood drifts their belongings. Our climate is changing. Ice is melting, sea levels are rising and greenhouse gases warming up the world. There may not be more natural hazards in the future, but they are likely to be stronger, heavier and more devastating. It is an evolution towards a situation of extremes, for which we partly paved the way by processes of deforestation, or sealing earth’s surface by building impermeable infrastructures and cities. Our cities are changing as well, and as with the changes in climate, we have little understanding of their behavior. All we know is that they are growing fast and that we “are caught in an acceleration that will not stop if there is no other body or force to stop it” [De Cauter 2008:112]. The essential problem of this growth, in its current situation, lies in the fact that cities are sprawling exponentially over a finite and complex system [Limits to growth 1972]. A derailing situation lies in front of us.

The current discourse concerning climate change learns that the debate is based on four key concepts which Cavalieri divided in two pairs, being “‘resistance-resilience’ that express two attitudes man has taken through time in order to face the challenges and problems related to the ecological matter, and being ‘mitigation-adaptation’ that define two possible strategies of action” [Cavalieri 2008: 71]. The IPCC defined mitigation as “an anthropological intervention to reduce the sources or enhance sinks of greenhouse gases” and adaptation as “the adjustment in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm and exploits 97

beneficial opportunities” [IPCC 2001]. Unravelling both concepts mitigation is indirect damage prevention, while adaptation is a more reactive action, by dealing with and depending on the real impacts and physical consequences of climate change. Acknowledging the fact that 22 out of our 50 major cities in the world risk flooding from coastal surges, adaptation has until recently remained off climate government agendas [Bulkeley 2008: 31]. Was it lack of engagement, or did the uncertainty of the outcome of these predictions render us too cautious? The current conditions show us that we have definitely arrived at the issue of limits, and that mitigation on itself therefore is an answer too soft, and probably too late, to cover the predicted consequences of climate change. As Connel states: “carbon neutral is not climate proof” [Connel 2008: 49].

The quest of merging Cities have always been located in the very midst of the areas most rich in biodiversity, where the soil, the water, the climate and the altitude enable the different species to develop. “It is right there where the urbanized regions have extended the most and where the strongest links between natural dynamics and urban environment might be sought” [Vigano 2010: 19]. As both natural dynamics and urban environment are evolving towards a situation of extremes, and as we “are addicted to growth, mobility and acceleration”, which lead us to “a collision course with the ecosystem we inhabit”[De Cauter 2008: 111], we realise that fighting no longer is a supportive attitude. There is a strong need to evolve to a situation in which city and water form a resilient interplay again and in which hard edges and sharp lines no longer are the main elements of a ‘mastering the hazards’ strategy. It is time for us to go to an “urban adaptation”, an adaptation of water and city in a manner that goes beyond building dykes, raising land or canalising torrential water. It is

Stilt house in a lagoon near Hoi An 101

City-in-water, Sangqiu Water bodies of various sizes are trapped in between the inner city walls and the outer circumvallating levee.

Water-within-city, Chaoxian Water bodies of various sizes are contained within the inner squared city wall.

Ying-yang-city, Suixian The former submerged city became a huge water body along which a new city developed.

the quest for effective strategies for survival and continuing with improved existence, for being resilient to the impacts of natural disasters in stead of being fortified against them. It is the quest of merging water and city.

Water and city, an organism The key to a resilient interplay between water and city, that is seeing city and water as an organism, is given by Oppenheimer as well. An organism, defined as an organization consisting of interdependent parts, is able to adapt to changing conditions, as it is a cooperation between -in this case two- elements and thus having an inherent sort of dynamic or resilience. Looking at city and water as an organism Kongjian Yu and Chris Zevenbergen open the debate based on 2 cases, both examples of spatial resilience in the past. Firstly, Kongjian Yu did research on ancient Chinese villages located in the Yellow River Floodplain. Briefly, this research pointed out that all of these villages have 3 major adaptive landscape strategies to prevent flooding described as sitting on highlands, constructing walls and protective dykes, and reserving or digging ponds within cities. These adaptive strategies resulted in three types of water city: water-within-city, city-in-water and Ying-Yang-city. The clue of his research is that all of these Chinese villages knew a spatial form of dealing with floods that has become a real â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Art of survivalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; for many generations. As current generations lost this tradition of art-making by flood-adapting in ways of integrating both hard and soft engineering in their cities, the valuable local landscape and functional urban landscape have disappeared, rendering these villages more prone to floods than they have ever been [Yu 2008].

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Secondly, Zevenbergen refers to the fact that from 1100 to 1800 only 42 cities over the world have been abandoned after their first construction. He concludes that over a longer time in history, cities have “always successfully adapted to changing environmental conditions and thus have been extremely resilient” [Zevenbergen 2008: 20]. Furthermore the year 2005 formed a marking point in history. At that time half of the world’s population lived in cities, being 3.1 billion people [WUP 2009]. Expecting this number of urban population to double to 6,2 billion people by 2050, Zevenbergen states that “it appears that cities have a limited capacity to adapt proactively to these rapid changes, and are losing the ability to anticipate and deal with natural hazards” [Zevenbergen 2008:20]. In short, our cities were able to proactively adapt over ages, but due to the current velocity and abruptness of environmental changes on one hand and the exponential growth of cities on the other, cities lost their adaptive capacity, it being caught by inertia.Secondly, Zevenbergen refers to the fact that from 1100 to 1800 only 42 cities over the world have been abandoned after their first construction. He concludes that over a longer time in history, cities have “always successfully adapted to changing environmental conditions and thus have been extremely resilient” [Zevenbergen 2008: 20]. Furthermore the year 2005 formed a marking point in history. At that time half of the world’s population lived in cities, being 3.1 billion people [WUP 2009]. Expecting this number of urban population to double to 6,2 billion people by 2050, Zevenbergen states that “it appears that cities have a limited capacity to adapt proactively to these rapid changes, and are losing the ability to anticipate and deal with natural hazards” [Zevenbergen 2008:20]. In short, our cities were able to proactively adapt over ages, but due to the current velocity and abruptness of environmental changes on one hand and the exponential growth of cities on the other, cities lost their adaptive capacity, it being caught by inertia. 105

Design adaptation With this book, by dealing with the chapters ‘changing nature’, ‘changing cities’ and ‘current attitudes toward water issues’, we have set the context in which our aim is to research by ways of design on possible relations between water and city, hereby using climate change the same way as Vigano did: as “a connector, a global risk capable of defining new relations and approaches” [Vigano 2010: 19]. Giddens once wrote that “we have no politics of climate change”, to which Vigano replied recently: “we have no design for climate change” [Vigano 2010: 21]. As there is an obvious need for an urban adaptation, a design adaptation needs to be made as well, it being an exercise in “deriving less from an understanding of form and more from an understanding of process-how things work in time and space”[Corner 2006]. In this philosophy design should be holistic, being an open dialogue between different disciplines and striving to integrate architecture, engineering, landscape architecture, urbanism and ecology. This design adaptation should anticipate, in stead of react to, the outcomes of weather related hazards. As De Nijs and Shannon point out, the power of adaptation lays in the fact that it, as well as mitigation, can be proactive when being based on the projected impacts of climate change, and that the latter is most important for urban design. Designing based on the possible predictions of climate change therefore is designing with uncertainty, making adaptive design strategies not always the right ones [OSA 2010:50]. Somehow they are educated guesses.

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Engineering approaches to water systems, from traditional to eco-engineering

Moreover, it is at the scale of the city and the region that decisions concerning ecology, hydrology and planning are made; therefore it is the scale of the city that can form the hinge in an adaptive urbanism strategy. When design approaches on this level take along integrating strategies with vision on ecology, hydrology and urbanism, the smaller scales will inevitably be rendered more resilient. The design should have a down to the ground approach, taking into account its specific spatial context, one of the most complex layers that is up to now often left out. Besides looking at what the different layers of the territory of today bring along as a static set of conditions, referring to a static set of recourses, it is indispensable to look at the “territories change capability as well, referring to the capability to activate forces which can shape the stock of territorial recourses to more coherently evolve with the changes of the context conditions” [Caroli 2008:62]. By implementing soft engineering that contains both natural and artificial elements to recover in time, design makes it possible for urbanisation to be able to exist in congruence with the rhythms of nature. Design should aim at merging hydrology and urbanity in a way that they can react on their ongoing changing context. Rather than preventing or hinder natural processes as hard engineering does, soft engineering starts from an effort to understand these processes and to provide space for them to occur. Applying this approach, which Novotny refers to as eco-engineering, on nature and ecosystems, and vice versa, the impact of extreme natural processes on human systems, like urban areas, infrastructure, or settlements are smoothened out. The goal of this thesis is to implement spatial resilience. Through a ‘designerly way of thinking’ adaptive design strategies seek to resonate with its water related hazard.

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INTERNET

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PICTOGRAPHY All images in this booklet are, unless listed below, made or drawn by the authors (Water Urbanism Studio 2011).

1 Hypothesis 2 Expanding cities p 16-17 Map situating cities: world map based on Google earth 2010 CITY IDs p18 Maps: Graphs:

p19 Map Arequipa:

Map Cantho:

Map Hanoi:

OVERVIEW p24-25 Maps:

based on Google earth 2011, last checked 06/03/2011, and MPA, 2002: Plan Director de Arequipa Metropolitana 2002-2015 (PDAM), Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEI), 2003. Urban growth: based on LIU, S.H., Transformation of Tainan Historical Town to Sustainable Eco-Town (Doctoral degree program), University of Tsukuba, Agricultural Sciences, 2001, Tsukuba, p17. Data for map 2010 based on CAD-maps obtained by the Tainan City Government (1996) and Google earth 2010, last checked 15/05/2011. Coastline changes: based on HSIEH, Y.H., Zengwung River Course Change and Immigrantâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Cultivation (Ph.D.), National Tainan University, social sciences, 2006, Tainan, p. 317, (in Chinese) based on U.S. C.I.A., Edition 1-TPC (29 ETB), Series L909, National Imagery and Mapping Agency, 1970., data from Department of construction, Cantho and the built up area on Google earth 2009. based on historical maps received from Tuan Pham Anh, doctorate student at OSA KULeuven and Hanoi Spring Studio 2011. Map of 2010 based on Google earth 2010, last checked 15/05/2011.

see sources City IDs p.19

Map Tainan:

AREQUIPA p26 Map:

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based on Google earth 2011, last checked 15/05/2011. data from Population Referce Bureau, http://www.prb.org/DataFinder.aspx, last checked 16/05/2011, and CIA WORLD FACT BOOK, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook, last checked 15/05/2011.

p27 Graph population: data from United Nations, http://esa.un.org/unup/p2k0data.asp, last checked 23/3/2011. Map urbanised agriculture and desert: based on MPA, 2002: Plan Director de Arequipa Metropolitana 2002-2015 (PDAM), Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEI), 2003. CANTHO p30 Map: see sources City IDs p.19 p31 Graph: data from United Nations http://esa.un.org/unup/p2k0data.asp, last checked 23/3/ 2011 and data from General Statistics Office Vietnam: http://www.gso.gov.vn/, last checked 23/3/2011. HANOI p34 Map: see sources City IDs p.19 p35 Graph groundwater: data from National Monitoring for Dynamic Groundwater in: World Bank, Vietnam environment monitor 2003 – Water, World Bank, 2003, annex 2, fig 1a. Graph population: data from United Nations, http://esa.un.org/unup/p2k0data.asp, last checked 23/3/ 2011, and General Statistics Office Vietnam: www.gso.gov.vn/, last checked 23/3/2011. Map lakes: based on Shibayama, M, Hanoi's Urban Transformation in the 19th and 20th Centuries: An Area Informatics Approach, KURENAI : Kyoto University Research Information Repository, 2009, p. 504-505. TAINAN p38 Map: see sources City IDs p.19 p39 Graph population: data from Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unup, Wednesday, March 23, 2011; 10:46:01 AM.

3 Discourse of resilience p54 Sections:

CAVALIERI C. , “On resilience” ,in: FABIAN L., VIGANO P., Extreme City, climate change and the transformation of the waterscape, Università Iuav di Venezia,Venice, 2010, p. 94.

4 Current attitudes towards water issues 4.1 The omnipresence of Climate Change p60 Graph CO2: Graph N20:

Worldbank, http://search.worldbank.org/, last checked 13/05/2011. DI NORCIA, V., University of Sudbury: Global warming is man-made. Key points in the panel on climate change 2007 Report, 2008, p.2.

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Graph hazard frequency: Bhatia N., Mayer H. J., Arium: Weather+Architecture, Hatje Cantz, 2009, p.97. p62 Graph surface temperature: IPPC, Climate change 2007, Synthesis Report, Summery for Policymakers, 2007, p.3. Graph global sea level: IPPC, Climate change 2007, Synthesis Report, Summery for Policymakers, 2007, p.3. Graph global surface warming: IPPC, Climate change 2007, Synthesis Report, Summery for Policymakers, 2007, p.7. p63 Map average temperature change: adapted from BARCELLONI CORTE, M., CAVALIERI, C., PREGAZZI, C., “Small Dictionary on CC”, in: FABIAN L., VIGANO P., Extreme City, climate change and the transformation of the waterscape, Università Iuav di Venezia, Venice, 2010, re-elaborated from: IPCC, 4th Assessment Report, Synthesis Report, 2007. Map fresh water: B hatia N., Mayer H. J., Arium:Weather+Architecture, Hatje Cantz, 2009, p.78. Map desertiﬁcation: Bhatia N., Mayer H. J., Arium: Weather+Architecture, Hatje Cantz, 2009, p.75.

4.2 Three conditions, four cities 4.2.1 Peru: Arequipa p67 Map Peru: Graph rainfall: AREQUIPA p68 Map torrents: p69 Newspaper above: Newspaper under: p70 Map risk zone: p71 Map infrastructure:

based on Google earth 2011, last checked on 06/03/2011. data from MPA, 2002: Plan Director de Arequipa Metropolitana 2002-2015 (PDAM), Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (INEI), 2003. based on google earth 2010, last checked 15/05/2011. Correo, 3 februari 1967. name unknown, 12 february 2011. based on Google earth 2010, last checked 15/05/2011. based on Google earth 2010, last checked 15/05/2011.

4.2.2 Vietnam: Cantho & Hanoi p74-75 Map Vietnam impacts sea level rise: adapted from De Nijs, A, Climate Change as Urban Design Strategy, Landscape Urbanism Cantho, unpublished thesis, KULeuven, 2010, p. 33. Map Mekong Delta: adapted from De Nijs, A, Climate Change as Urban Design Strategy, Landscape Urbanism Cantho, unpublished thesis, KULeuven, 2010, p. 35. Graph Cantho: adapted from De Nijs, A, Climate Change as Urban Design Strategy, Landscape Urbanism Cantho, unpublished thesis, KULeuven, 2010, p. 37. Graph Hanoi: data received from Tuan Pham Anh, doctorate student at OSA KULeuven. 118

CANTHO p76 Map Cantho:

based on data from Department of Construction, Cantho.

HANOI p80 Map Delta:

based on map from PHAM ANH, T., SHANNON, K., “Water management in Vietnam – Indigenous Knowledge and International Practices: The case of the Red River Delta”, in: N-AERUS, 2009, p.3.

p82-83 Picture imperial era: picture from PHAM ANH, T., SHANNON, K., “Water management in Vietnam – Indigenous Knowledge and International Practices: The case of the Red River Delta”, in: N-AERUS, 2009, p.4. Picture 1926 and colonial period: pictures from GAUTHIER, J., Travaux de défense contre les inondation – Digues du Tonkin, Imprimerie d’extrême-orient, 1930, p34, 74. Picture 1960: picture from PHAM ANH, T., SHANNON, K., “Water management in Vietnam – Indigenous Knowledge and International Practices: The case of the Red River Delta”, in: N-AERUS, 2009, p6. 4.2.3 Taiwan: Tainan p84 Picture: p85 Picture: Map Typhoon:

taken by Udndata, Associated Press 2009, Monday, August 10, 2009 3:00 PM, source: ICHPL Imaginechina. taken by Anonymous, Associated Press 2009, Friday, August 14, 2009 12:28 AM, source: POOL Taiwan Central News Agency. Central Weather Bureau 2010, September, satellite data of Typhoon Fanapi for the Taiwan News.

TAINAN p87 Picture industrial park: Tainan Science Based Industrial Park, http://www.tsipa.gov.tw, last checked 03/04/2011. Picture detention pond: CHIU,Y-T, “Water problems undermine Tainan Industrial Park” in: Taipei Times, Sep 05, 2000, p.2. p88-89 Map Tainan and study area: based on data and images from CHEN, C-N., TSAI, C-H. T., TSAI, C-T., “Reduction of discharge hydrograph and ﬂood stage resulted from upstream detention ponds”, in: Hydrological processes, 2001 (21), pp. 3492-3506.

5 Design adaptation p102 Maps cities: p108 Scheme:

Turenscape, http://www.turenscape.com, last checked 14/05/2011. based on scheme from FEYEN, J, SHANNON, K., NEVILLE, M., Water & Urban Development Paradigms, CRC Press, 2009, p25.

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