Data Snapshot

This table highlights general data points, but taken together these data combine to create a snapshot of Lexington’s livability and quality of life. How has Lexington changed since the previous 2018 Comprehensive Plan? And how does our data compare to regional and national trends?

For more information on Lexington’s diverse population, see the “Equity in Planning” data board.

Population & Household Trends

What does the 2020 Census Data Reveal?

The Division of Planning relies on population and household projections provided by the Kentucky State Data Center (KSDC), which is the state’s lead agency in the U.S. Census Bureau’s State Data Center Program and Kentucky’s official clearinghouse for Census data. Current projection data is based on 2010 Census Data. The KSCD will update their projections when more detailed information is released by the U.S. Census Bureau later this year.

Here’s what we know so far.

2020 U.S. Census Lexington population:

322,570

2019 American Community Survey (ACS) total household estimate: 129,784

It is notable that the 2020 total population and the total household estimate provided in the 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) are more than 10,000 lower than KSDC’s 2020 projection for both metrics.

Population and Household Trendlines.

Conservative and Full trendlines project 20-year population in Fayette County to grow between 29,750 and 41,200 households by 2040 respectively.

Population growth in Fayette County and the surrounding region was stronger in the period between 2000 and 2010 than it has been in the past decade. Growth trends from the first part of the century are reflected in the KSDC projections in Table 9.1.

While many factors may have contributed to the recent slower growth, including lingering effects of the housing downturn or the increasing challenge of acquiring land and developing new housing inside the USB, this recent trend is apparent throughout the region and the state. As depicted in Table 9.2, the compound annual population growth in Fayette County since 2010 is consistent with the region and Madison and Jessamine counties. Only Scott County has a higher growth rate, and even it has lowered significantly from the first decade of the millennium.

Conservative and Full Trendlines

The conservative trendline is based on the past ten years of population estimates from the American Community Survey (2010 – 2019), while the full trendline reflects the projected forecast of the Kentucky State Data Center based on population estimates from the 2010 Census and the 2015 American Community Survey.

Household data comparisons.

The composition of households represents the fundamental building block of residential development and includes all residents living outside group quarter arrangements, such as nursing homes, school dormitories, and prisons. Fayette County has a slightly lower average household size than the region and state, but its average family size is close to regional and state averages. The proportion of households in families in notably lower in Fayette County than surrounding counties, as well as the proportion of households that include minors under 18 years of age and adults over 60 years of age.

This reflects Fayette County’s role as a regional metropolitan center, which tend to have a larger contingent of younger, working-aged adult households. The presence of the University of Kentucky and Transylvania University also contribute to the consistent influx of younger householders who come to Lexington for school and stay for career opportunities. Adjacent counties with a higher proportion of families and minors partially reflect their role as bedroom communities for Lexington.

12. Rural Land Management Plan, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aTiTv6wG1tND-_uIaM4ll8uFvOlKWUeD/view

13. https://www.lexingtonky.gov/departments/purchase-development-rights

14. 2017 Fayette County Housing Demand Study, https://drive.google.com/file/d/11rszNUmkgvJiglXRb6Xb9BfjoBkNf1Zv/view

15. America’s Rental housing 2022, Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/reports/files/ Harvard_JCHS_Americas_Rental_Housing_2022.pdf

16. https://www.lbar.com/news-events/market-data/

17. https://www.lbar.com/news/2022/02/25/main/real-estate-activity-starts-the-year-off-strong/)