Retail Analysis

Market Summary

Many new developments are smaller infill retail or mixed-use retail projects rather than large-scale power centers. Retail demand is in growing residential neighborhoods where this is the need for daily shopping and services such as grocery, pharmacy, food & beverage, and medical. The Summit at Fritz farm is the largest new mixed-use retail project in the region and features approximately 300,000 square feet of leasable space.

Regional Comparison

There is approximately 36.7 million square feet of retail inventory in Fayette County and the six surrounding counties as of Q1 2021. The retail asset class has had strong historical performance in the region over the past several decades, even with shifting retail trends and the rise of e-commerce.

Trendline Analysis

Trendlines project 20-year demand between 2.2 million square feet and 5.0 million square feet of new retail space in Fayette County. This translates between 110,000 square feet to 250,000 square feet on an annual basis. It is recommended that Fayette County target a conservative growth scenario due to slower local population growth rates, rising e-commerce spending, construction of smaller-scale brickand-mortar retail, and lower retail requirements per capita.

Fiscal Profile

Different types of land use and development patterns produce different amounts of revenue.

Revenue

Two of LFUCG’s annual revenue sources which are directly influenced by land use are Ad Valorem taxes (property taxes) and Licenses and Permits (Occupational License Fees). Offices produce the most revenue per acre for LFUCG, mostly from the occupational license fee. Single family residential and agricultural uses generate the lease amount of direct revenue, however their presence supports the revenue generated in other areas.

LFUCG Revenue Sources

Expenditures

Most of LFUCG’s expenses can be assumed to apply evenly across the county and are not directly tied to the type of development. Others, such are water, sewer, roads, and stormwater systems are dependent on development patterns.

Some types of development cost cities more than they generate in revenue. That doesn’t mean that all development patterns should generate more than they cost, however there must be an appropriate balance for city finances to be sustainable.

Figure 7.5 illustrates where in Fayette County generates revenues that exceeds the average per acre costs and by how much. Areas in green illustrate the essential sources of land use-based revenue generation for LFUCG. Revenue

1. LFUCG GIS

Consulting Services, et al. or the U.S. Census Bureau.

2. https://www.lexingtonky.gov/greenways

3. Lexington Area MPO 2018 Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan, https://lexareampo.org/studiesplans/connectlex/

4. https://www.lexingtonky.gov/about-parks-and-recreation-master-plan

5. https://www.lexingtonky.gov/news/12-13-2021/lexington-joins-10-minute-walk-campaign-advance-access-parks-and-green-spaces

6. Imagine Lexington 2018 Comphrensive Plan, https://imaginelexington.com/

7. 2015 Comprehensive Urban Tree Canopy Analysis Report, https://www.lexingtonky.gov/lexingtons-tree-canopy

8. Tree Equity Score, by American Forests, https://www.americanforests.org/tools-research-reports-and-guides/tree-equity-score/

9. Census of Agriculture, https://www.nass.usda.gov/AgCensus/

10. Rural Land Management Plan, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aTiTv6wG1tND-_uIaM4ll8uFvOlKWUeD/view