LEXINGTON URBAN GROWTH PLAN 03.21.24 Planning Commission Work Session
AGENDA
Future Growth
Housing Needs
Overview of Real Estate Trends
Potential Expansion Areas (EAs)
Fiscal Impact Analysis
PROJECTED POPULATION & HOUSEHOLDS, 2023-2045
1% Mobile Homes 15% Townhouse / Duplex 59% Single-Family Detached 15% 5-19 Units Multi-family 10% 20+ Units Multi-family
RESIDENTIAL CONDITIONS – Existing Stock
RESIDENTIAL CONDITIONS – Building Permits
RESIDENTIAL CONDITIONS – Multi-Family Construction
Newly Built (2018-23)
Scaled by number of units in project
Spending NO MORE than 30% of income on housing-related expenses
Family of 3 at 50% AMI can afford up to $1,060 per month for 2-BR unit
Affordable Cost Burdened Severely Cost Burdened >50% >30% <30% DEFINING AFFORDABILITY
HOUSING NEEDS
OWNERS up to 80% AMI
RENTERS up to 80% AMI
3,725 severely cost-burdened owners
12,240 severely cost-burdened renters
19% of owners
31% of renters
80% AMI- 3 person $64,350 4 person $71,400
RESIDENTIAL CONCLUSIONS
Fayette County Demand (2045)
Total Housing Units 25,600
Mixture of housing product types and densities
Address current mismatch of residential product type
NON-RESIDENTIAL CONDITIONS / CONCLUSIONS
CONDITION
Retail – Older stock struggles with increasing vacancies, otherwise healthy
OPPORTUNITY
Retail – Drawn to areas with new rooftops, high visibility
Office – Very limited growth with more efficient space usage; 1.0 to 1.7 million square feet of new space by 2045
Office – Mixed-use environments
attract businesses due to better talent retention
Industrial/Flex – Low vacancies; 1.5 to 2.3 million square feet of new space by 2045
Industrial/Flex – Extending infrastructure to meet needs
Hotel – Variety of types, locations and users
Hotel – Access & regional demand support continued occupancy
OFFICE CONDITIONS / CONCLUSIONS
Vacancy likely to climb as tenants
shrink spaces with work-from-home trend
Move toward mixed-use environments
Neighborhood-serving office
INDUSTRIAL/FLEX CONDITIONS
Majority of new demand in transportation and warehouse
Fayette County land costs reducing its share of region’s demand
Newly Built (2018-23)
Scaled by SF
LEGEND
Fayette County
Less than 10,000 SF 301,600 SF
RETAIL CONDITIONS / CONCLUSIONS
Retail will follow rooftops (population growth)
Key 6 Regional centers
Vacancy higher in older commercial corridors
Newly built areas tight market conditions, limited retail vacancies
806,000 SF 7.5% Vacant 3.2 Million SF 8.9% Vacant
SF 2.3% Vacant
0% Vacant
SF 4.4% Vacant 552,000 SF 0.5% Vacant
1.3 Million
1.9 Million SF
1.7 Million
HOTEL CONDITIONS
Strong
national tourism brand as Horse Capital of the World
Cluster along highways
Obsolete hotels need replacement or conversion to housing
Anywhere USA
Auto-oriented, requires vehicle
Longer commutes / more congestion
Higher level of air pollution
Inability to retain businesses
LOWER QUALITY OF LIFE
COMMUNITY COST OF SPRAWL
Infrastructure Cost
Service Cost
Maintenance Cost
Inefficient Government Operations
LESS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
COST OF SPRAWL
FISCAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR EXPANSION AREAS
1. EAs are most competitive for residential development
2. Interesting opportunities for mixed communities of multiple housing types
• Address demand for smaller units for homeownership
3. Limited potential for commercial development, particularly in the near term
4. No mechanism to ensure timely development
LFUCG
• Driven by occupational license fees
• Very dependent on non-residential development
Annual General Fund Revenue, FY 2023
FISCAL IMPACT APPROACHES
• Two approaches – average and incremental costs
• Average cost impacts
• Allocate costs across residents, businesses and visitors
• Residential development does not pay for itself
• Incremental cost impacts
• Primarily capital costs
• Without EAs, still serving the same population
INCREMENTAL IMPACTS
• Wastewater and stormwater collection and storage
• Road and intersection improvements for adjacent arterials
• Entry roads and internal spine roads
• Police and fire stations and equipment
• Parks and open space
• Schools and libraries
• Transit enhancements
