TRADE AREAS

Factors & Definition

The trade area for any project is that geography from which it will capture a large majority of its clientele and business. Usually the trade area will contribute between 70% and 80% of the project’s demand. Factors impacting the delineation of the trade area include: anticipated scale, potential tenant mix, site visibility, quality and access of the transportation network, both physical and psychological barriers and the presence of competing alternatives. In many cases, not all of these factors have been determined and that is the situation here. For example, this market study will help define both the project’s scale and tenant mix.

Site And Visibility

The site is flawed in several ways. There is a significant water feature that runs diagonally across the site, dividing it into two distinct pieces. Along this fault there is also a significant grade change. The eastern portion of the site is approximately 15 feet lower than the western piece. Both of these factors present serious impediments to site utilization. With approximately 1,000 feet of frontage along Versailles Road (Bus. 60), which is a major east-west traffic artery in the western half of the

TRADE AREA FACTORS rankings (1)

Site & Visibility: C

Transportation Network: A

Physical & Psychological Barriers: C

Competing Alternatives: D

Development Scale (2)

Tenant Mix (2) source: Gentleman McCarty/DCI analysis

(1) A indicates excellent, B indicates above average, C indicates average, D indicates below average and F indicates failing (2) rankings not determined due to lack of information

Lexington market, visibility is excellent for a narrow strip unaffected by the change in topography. Horseshoe shaped Oxford Circle provides visibility of the site on the remaining 3 sides, but traffic levels are significantly lower than along Versailles Road.

Some of the existing land uses on the site and adjacent to it between the two intersections of Oxford Circle with Versailles Road contribute to the negative perceptions of the area. This is particularly important for the two intersections: to the east, the Marathon gas station occupies what could be an important parcel that could define and establish identity for the Oxford Circle property. To the west, this is also true. This collection of sites could be the ideal location for any retail uses identified for the redevelopment, but would provide ideal locations for more trafficoriented retail and commercial uses. This would require that access off of Versailles Road in both directions is provided. The realignment of Oxford Circle with Mason Headley would improve the availability of frontage and increase access to the site, while creating better connections to Cardinal Hill Rehabilitation Hospital.

Although not part of the Oxford Circle project site, Cardinal Hill Rehabilitation Hospital is located directly across Versailles Road from the site and currently is the most significant economic generator in the area. The hospital was established in 1950 and presently houses 232 beds in 400,000 square feet of space. Reportedly, the hospital has a staff of approximately 600 persons and treats 9,500 patients annually. The average patient stay at the hospital is 1 week. If each patient had an average of 5 visitors over the week’s stay, that would equal nearly 50,000 visitors annually. The hospital staff, patients and, maybe most importantly, patient visitors represent a very attractive “captive market” that presently has virtually no shopping or other commercial services available locally to satisfy their daily needs. This market is not likely captured in the current trade area estimates and would represent additional demand to support retail and service offerings.

Data source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty analysis

(1) represents estimated totals provided by ESRI

(2) MHI = median household income

(3) AHI = average household income

(4) data represented is percent of total households in each income cohort

Transportation Network

To the east, Versailles Road connects the site to Downtown Lexington and the University of Kentucky campus, well within a 10 minute drive. These areas are accessible by both automobile and bus service. Versailles Road connects with New Circle Road (Hwy. 4) 1.3 miles to the west and then continues all the way to the City of Versailles (pop. of nearly 10,000). As can be seen from the Drive Time Map, the site can easily reach an area that contains over 22% of the Lexington metropolitan area population (109,708 of 489,562) today.

Physical And Psychological Barriers

While both the Downtown and the University of Kentucky are huge economic generators and are within easy reach of the site, there are both physical and psychological barriers which will limit the site’s ability to draw customers from the east. These destinations are both large and well-established and offer a better, more expansive mix of commercial and service businesses. Given the limited size of the Oxford Circle site and availability of developable sites nearby, the project will not be able to develop a commercial project of suitable scale to compete with these attractions. However, if a unique non-commercial program can be assembled, it may be possible to tap into the extended eastern market. Because of these factors, it is likely that multiple trade areas will be identified to serve the project.

Competing Alternatives. The Fayette Mall area (4 miles southeast) and the Downtown/UK area (2.3 miles east) both represent compelling concentrations of nearly all commercial uses that the community would like to attract. Of important note is the fact that there is not a single shopping center or traditional big box retailer in this western portion of the market, other than the grocery and drug stores one would typically expect to find currently located in the general area of the site. Traditional department stores are absent, as are the discount stores, wholesale clubs and home improvement stores.

Potential Markets

10 Minute Walk Area

- Neighborhood Trade Area

10 Minute DriveCommercial Service Trade Area

Retail Trade Area

Cardinal Hill/Visitor Market