RETAIL MARKET

Retail Trade Area

Retail Trade Area Demand For Goods And Services

Today the trade area for Oxford Circle contains a modest population of 34,602, but with growth projections above the metropolitan area. Incomes for trade area residents are well below average compared to the region. However, an analysis of the supply and demand conditions within the market indicate that the area is not being adequately served and residents are having to leave the trade area to satisfy their need for various goods and services. Retail Trade and Food & Drink is comprised of 30 industry groups. Of these 28 are location based. The chart, Retail Market Place Profile (pg 41), visually displays the Leakage/Surplus Factors for each industry group (electronic or non-physical stores are not represented in the chart), illustrating the degree to which each has either a surplus of supply or a leakage of demand. The Leakage/Surplus Factor is a proprietary measure developed by ESRI to measure the balance between the volume of retail sales (supply) generated by retail businesses and the volume of retail potential (demand) produced by household spending on retail goods. The factor is not a percentage, but a ratio on a scale of -100 to +100. A factor -100 indicates total surplus and a factor of +100 indicates total leakage. Leakage indicates that not enough retail stores are present to absorb the demand and it is therefore either not being spent or, more likely, leaking outside the trade area to retailers in other retail areas.

As can be seen, of the 28 location based industry groups, 20 are leaking sales outside the trade area. This represents an opportunity for the Oxford Circle project. Of the 20 industry groups that demonstrate leakage, 11 are deemed to be sufficiently under stored (high leakage) to justify focusing on for potential retail candidates for the market.

4.

5. Florists (68.3)

6. Used Merchandise Stores (63.8) source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty/DCI analysis

These are the retail groups that should be given the highest priority when developing a leasing plan for the corridor. They are the groups that are most underrepresented in the trade area.

The second tier groups are also underrepresented in the market, but to a lesser degree. Still, they should be part of the corridor's leasing plan.

While much of the trade area indicates retail "leakage," it is not a given that Oxford Circle can recapture that spending. If key factors (such as visibility, barriers and competition) that were discussed earlier in this analysis) are addressed, the ability to capture a larger share of the market will be possible. Even with those improvements, Oxford Circle must compete with other, possibly better suited, commercial sites and corridors.

Retail Marketplace Profile

Surplus / Leakage Factor

Automobile Dealers

Other Motor Vehicle Dealers

Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire

Furniture

Home Furnishings

Electronic & Appliance

Building Materials & Supplies

Lawn/Garden Equip. & Supplies

Grocery

Specialty Food

Beer, Wine & Liquor

Health & Personal Care

Gasoline

Clothing

Shoes

Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods

Sporting Goods

Books & Music

Department Stores

Other General Merchandise

Florist

Office Supplies & Gifts

Used Merchandise

Other Misc. Retailers

Full-Service Restaurants

Limited-Service Restaurants

Special Food Services

Drinking Places

Surplus Leakage source: ESRI Business Analyst and Gentleman McCarty analysis