What the London Church Census Reveals
LONDON’S CHURCHES ARE GROWING!
London’s Churches are Growing! Introduction This booklet summarises some of the key findings from a comprehensive study of churches in London in 2012 called the London Church Census. Four Censuses covering the whole of England have been undertaken in previous years, and results from London and the rest of England from the last of these in 2005 is used for comparison. We are very grateful for all those who supported this Census and to all the many church leaders who responded. The Council of Reference of 22 senior leaders was drawn from all the major church denominations, including the new ethnic churches, and agencies and other groupings.
The London City Mission, which for nearly 180 years has been presenting the Christian gospel to the inhabitants of London, wanted more information to enable it to work as strategically as possible in the years ahead. They were particularly interested in what information could be gathered on the extent and effectiveness of church planting in London.
It therefore commissioned Brierley Consultancy to undertake this work because of the experience of Dr Peter Brierley who heads it up, researching the Christian church over many years, not least as Director of Christian Research, the body responsible for many Church Censuses, and the volumes of Religious Trends and the UK Christian Handbook. We are grateful to him for all the work undertaken for this study.
The focal challenges of the London Church Census involve location, leadership, culture, ethnicity, gender and age. Above all, these require clear thinking, impassioned praying, and strategic action. This study will have failed if it only results in academic agreement (or disagreement!). It will have succeeded only if churches are driven to prayer and then to such actions as exploring the possibility of a church plant, considering an evangelism teaching course, developing a Bible-based teaching ministry, freeing leadership solely for the task in hand, providing for a youth worker, and expanding outreach among professionals, students, men, immigrants, the elderly, disabled, singles, those living on Council Estates, those of alternative faiths and other specialist groups. The fields ARE ready for harvest.
Alan Black Chief Executive Officer
Š Dr Peter Brierley
June 2013
ISBN: 978-0-9566577-5-6
1) Church attendance in London is growing fast Church attendance has grown from just over 620,000 in 2005 to just over 720,000 in the 7 years to 2012, a 16% increase. Nowhere else in the UK has attendance grown so dramatically. While these numbers are across all denominations, the growth is especially seen in the Black Majority Churches (Pentecostals) and the various Immigrant Churches (Smaller Denominations). Church attendance on a typical Sunday in London, 1989-2020E
However, the increase may not continue. Not all churches are growing, and over the next 8 years, total attendance could drop 2% to just over 700,000. . Both of the main growing groups are doing so because many immigrants are coming to London, but not all immigrants stay in London.
# How may church growth among immigrants best be encouraged in other UK cities and urban areas? Why is the church growing more rapidly among BMC and Immigrant Churches than traditional English denominations?
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2) There are three main groups of churches Total London church attendance is about a quarter (24%) of that in the whole of England. There are three main groups: 1) The Black Majority Churches and Immigrants which have been growing fastest 2) The Larger Churches (200 or more on a Sunday, but a third are 500 or more), mainly Catholic, Anglican or BMCs; these also are growing 3) All the other churches, more in Outer London than Inner London, which form half the congregations (50%) but only a quarter (22%) of the attenders. Many of these are declining.
As well as the BMCs and Immigrant Churches, the Orthodox Churches are also growing (but they are very small in numbers), as are the New Churches and the Roman Catholics (although only just). Despite many larger churches, the Anglicans overall are declining..
# In which group is your church? Has its congregation grown or declined over the past few years? Why do think this is so?
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3) Reasons for church growth Some BMC Churches have started in those areas in which black people mostly live, which might be called “neighbourhood” churches, designed to be within 10 minutes walking distance. Many of the Immigrant Churches have started to cater for non-English speakers (14% of London churches use a language other than English); these might be called “speciality” churches. Some of the larger churches would be in this category too, while some are planting churches out of their existing congregations. Growth in attendance between 2005 and 2012
# In which London Borough does your church lie? Can you identify any local “unchurched” areas where a “church plant” might be viable?
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4) Many of London’s churchgoers are Evangelical Three-fifths (61%) of the ministers of London’s churches said their church was Evangelical, and these churches accounted for just over half, 52%, of all churchgoers. The difference is because the Catholic churches are so much larger than the others: the average size of a Evangelical church in London in 2012 was 130 people, while Catholics were 320, and all others 120 people per church.
Across England as a whole, only 38% of both churches and churchgoers are Evangelical. That so many more in London are Evangelical is because most of the Black Churches are Evangelical, The Evangelical Churches are also growing the fastest (up 30% between 2005 and 2012), and also have the youngest churchgoers, as many of the new Pentecostal Churches have as yet relatively few older people.
# In what circumstances might Evangelicals, without compromise, co-operate with other churchmanships in the interests of extending the Kingdom?
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5) Gender of London’s churchgoers Overall, 44% of those attending in London’s congregations in 2012 were male and 56% female, very similar to the rest of England in 2005. In two areas though the gender is different from what might be expected. Those under 20 are on average 25% of the total, but 29% of male churchgoers are under 20 while only 24% of female churchgoers are. Secondly, London churchgoers increased in number by a total of nearly 100,000 people between 2005 and 2012. 82% of that increase was female! Increase in numbers joining London churches 2005-2012 by gender
One third (33%) of the female increase is among those aged 20 to 44, and a further third (32%) among those aged 65 or over. On average the mean age of a female London worshipper is 42, younger than in England as a whole where it was 46 in 2005.
# What programmes, incentives or other methods can churches use to encourage more men to join their congregations?
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6) Age of London’s churchgoers The first Table shows the proportions by age attending church in London in 2012, broken down by Inner and Outer London. Age group Under 15 15-19 % %
20-29 %
30-44 %
45-64 65 & over Average Base % % age (=100%)
Inner
19
5
14
21
21
20
40
320,900
Outer
22
5
9
21
21
22
41
400,600
All London
21
5
11
21
21
21
41
721,500
This Table shows that while Outer London has a greater number of children in church than Inner London and more older people, the really big difference is the proportion of those aged 20-29 who are much more likely to go to church in Inner London. More than half of those in their 20s going to church in Greater London go to an Inner London church. The next Table contrasts the age of London’s churchgoers with the average age of those in the rest of England, these figures coming from the 2005 English Church Census. Age group
Under 15 15-19 20-29 % % %
30-44 45-64 65 & over Average Base % % % age (=100%)
London 2005
21
6
11
21
22
19
41
623,000
Rest of England
20
5
6
14
24
31
46
2,543,200
All England
20
5
7
16
24
28
45
3,166,200
This second Table shows that: (A) Between 2005 and 2012, the proportion of London attenders under 20 has dropped from 27% to 26%, and the total percentage 45 and over has increased from 42% to 43%. (B) The big difference is the percentage of those aged 20 to 44 attending church in London totalling 32% against 20% of churchgoers across the rest of England. The London percentage of those in their 20s is almost double that for the rest of England.
# What attracts those in their 20s to the Inner London churches, even if they don’t live there? How can smaller local churches welcome them when these factors become less significant?
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7) Age varies by size of church and denomination Age of churchgoers in London by size of church, 2012
Smaller congregations have more older people, while larger churches are likely to have a greater percentage aged 15 to 29. The average age of a churchgoer in a congregation of 25 or under is 50 while it is 40 in churches with 100 or more. As there are many more smaller churches than larger ones in London the overall average age in 2012 was 41, while the national average was 45 in 2005. The increasing proportion of those aged both 15 to 29 and 30 to 44 the larger the church may be readily seen. The average age also varies by denomination: Those in Methodist and URC churches average 56 .Anglicans and Roman Catholics average 45 Those in Baptist, Independent, Orthodox and Smaller denominations churches average 42 Those in Pentecostal and New Churches average 33
# How far is the size of the church more significant than denomination in attracting those between 15 and 44 and how can this be used for the Kingdom?
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8) London is ethnically and religiously diverse Group:
White %
Asian %
Black %
Mixed %
Other %
Base (=100%)
Inner London
57
16
17
6
4
3.2 m
Outer London
62
20
11
4
3
5.0 m
All London
60
18
13
6
3
8.2 m
Rest of England
90
6
2
2
0
44.8 m
All England
86
8
3
2
1
53.0 m
The Table shows that two-fifths of London’s population is non-white, a proportion four times as great as that prevailing in the rest of England (40% to 10%). London has 3 times more Asians (18% to 6%), 3 times more “Mixed” (6% to 2%) and 6 times more Black people (13% to 2%) than the rest of England. Such diversity is expressed in the focussing of certain nationalities and religions in particular areas of the capital. The map shows the distribution of London’s Muslims, for example.
# What opportunities, even if limited, might there be in the strongholds of other religions and cultures for the ministry of the church? 10
9) The significance of London’s ethnic Christian churchgoers 9% of London’s population goes to church on an average Sunday, but this varies by ethnicity: 4% of Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi; 8% of the white population; 16% of the Chinese, Korean and Japanese and 19% of the black population. Church attendance by ethnicity, Inner and Outer London
Almost half of Inner London’s churchgoers were black in 2012. 14% of church services in London are translated into a language other than English. There is a wide variety of such languages, such as: Acholi (Ugandan), Arabic, Assyrian, Cantonese and Mandarin Chinese, Coptic, Croatian, Fanti (Ghana), Filipino, French, German, Greek, Gujarati, Hindu, Hungarian, Japanese, Korean, Lingala (Congo), Lithuanian, Malayalam, Persian, Portuguese, Punjabi, Romanian, Russian, Rwandan, Serbian, Shona (Zimbabwe), Sinhalese (Sri Lanka), Slovak, Spanish, Taiwanese, Tamil, Xhosa (South Africa) and Yoruba (Nigeria).
# What and how can white majority churches learn from BMCs? Should white majority churches recruit leaders from BMCs to learn afresh how to reach those outside the church? 11
10) Midweek activities are numerous Over three-fifths (63%) of London’s churches hold a mid-week worship service, with half of the total attendance being in either Pentecostal or Anglican churches (some of the latter are lunch-time Bible readings). Attendance averages 55 people, twice the national average of 29 in 2005. About half (45%) the churches in London have some kind of mid-week youth activity, against 27% in England in 2005, but attendance is about the same (30 per week). Threequarters of these (76%) come to church on a Sunday. A quarter (23%) of churches also undertook some form of Community activity such as Drop-in Centre or Lunch Club during the week, similar to the national 20% in 2005. These average 71 people per church, almost a third higher than the national average of 55. This excludes outside organisations which might hire rooms or make use of church premises. The Commiunity activities attracted broadly equal proportions of those under 20 (38%), 20 to 44 and 45 and over (31% each). More people are contacted each week through such community work than through all the youth activities. Gender of Mid-week attenders, 2012
Collectively all this mid-week activity adds up to an extra 310,000 people interacting with churches, 120,000 of whom only come to a weekday activity. Thus collectively, across the whole week, 840,000 of those living or working in London come to church, over 10% of the entire London population.
# What is your church doing to reach those in your local community not likely to engage with programmes housed in the church?
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11) Church planting One London church in 7, 15%, had started another congregation within the previous 20 years (that is, since 1992). 93% of these new churches were still meeting 5 years later. Pentecostals had started the most, followed by the Anglicans and Smaller Denominations (most of the latter being specialist Immigrant Churches). Two-fifths were started by an individual or small group, and a third as an off-shoot from a mother congregation. Why start a new church? The survey indicated it was in order to reach out to particular nationalities, or the people in a specific location, or to reach certain kinds of people, including adherents of particular denominations (who were often immigrants). Half said a particular organisation, or person or other resource had been a major influence. Half started with a full-time leadership, on average 8 years younger than existing church leaders. The average initial budget was ÂŁ25,000, and the average initial congregation was 28 people. How congregations of newly started churches changed over five years
Two-fifths (38%) of the growth was reckoned to be new people, or at least those not previously churchgoers. Three-quarters said the new church was financially selfsupporting after 5 years.
# What factors might need to be considered in starting a church plant, and what additional factors might be relevant in helping a church plant to grow?
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12) London’s leaders and their churches Many churches were started in London in the second half of the 20th century. Half the churches have just one service on a Sunday, a third have two, and a fifth (19%) 3 or more. Three-fifths (63%) of Pentecostal and New Churches rent their church premises, a third for the whole of a Sunday. Two-fifths of churches share their building with other churches. Leadership is always a crucial factor, and 7% of current London leaders are responsible for more than one church (against 32% across England). The senior leader is likely to stay in post longer than in other parts of the country. Two-thirds (67%) of churches have a paid ordained leader, but only 13% a paid full- or part-time youth worker. Anglicans and New Churches were more likely to have youth workers than other denominations. London churchgoers were more likely to attend every week than elsewhere in the UK. 6% of those attending are visitors. A large extra number of people are reported to attend at Christmas. Churchgoers have been attending the same church on average for 10 years. On average they live 2 miles away, less in Outer London than Inner London where people are able to travel more easily. Two-thirds (70%) are estimated to be active/regular members, 22% committed but not active, and 8% not yet committed. Length of attendance and distance lived from church, London, 2012
# What proportion of those who attend your church come from the surrounding community? How can the relationship with your neighbourhood be deepened? Is your church a staging post or a terminus?
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ADBC publishers are part of Brierley Consultancy which helps build strategic vision for individual churches and Christian agencies, undertakes research and interpretation for Christian leaders, and enables directional thinking in churches or agencies using the latest analyses of Christian life in the UK and the world. The full report London’s Churches are Growing will be available as a book in October 2013, and more detailed tables will be included in UK Church Statistics Volume 2 to be published in 2014. FutureFirst is a popular bi-monthly bulletin for church leaders who want the latest facts, and explanations on Christian statistics, both in the UK and worldwide. “A very useful digest,” said one leader. “I read it from cover to cover!” said another. Please tick if you would like a sample copy. God’s Questions: Vision, Strategy and Growth follows through the implications of “Adam, where are you?” (you and the big picture), “Moses, what’s that in your hand?” (understand your strengths), “Elijah, what are you doing here?” (priorities), “Amos, what do you see?” (vision) and “Ezekiel, can these dry bones live?” (faith to take risks). “Always in a context of encouragement ... someone who understands the realities of church life” (from the Foreward by Prof John Drane). Price £5 including p & p. RRP £8.99. 9
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Sharing Jesus Christ with all London Millions of people in London have no knowledge at all of Jesus, and have little or no contact with church. This city is home to the poor, the marginalised, the immigrants, the lonely and those without hope - the kind of people Jesus spent so much of his time with. Our outreach teams go to people, wherever they are and share the transforming love of God. Blocks of flats with grimy stairwells. A crowded station. The draughty corner of an underpass. These are all familiar scenes to London City Mission workers who go into every area of London life, seeking to win this great city for Christ. London City Mission 175 Tower Bridge Road London SE1 2AH Tel: 020 7407 7585
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Total church attendance by London Borough, 1989 to 2012 London Borough Camden City of London City of Westminster Hackney Hammersmith & Ful. Haringey Islington Kensington & Chelsea Lambeth Lewisham Newham Southwark Tower Hamlets Wandsworth Inner London Barking & Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Kingston u’ Thames Merton Redbridge Richmond-u’-Thames Sutton
1989 15,700 5,200 31,500 9,700 11,200 17,400 11,200 23,500 21,600 34,000 9,400
Churchgoers 1998 2 005 15,600 20,400 4,400 4,100 25,900 28,500 11,700 17,800 9,500 9,900 19,400 20,200 10,500 13,200 25,000 27,300 16,800 19,600 28,000 27,200 10,100 12,100
23,700 23,900 10,700 11,000 26,800 27,900 251,600 239,700 10,200 15,300 16,200 35,000 31,400 44,000 20,900 32,300 17,400 26,400 19,400 19,600 10,700 15,800 14,800 22,800 17,500 15,300
26,000 11,700 27,700 265,700
8,500 7,400 18,700 19,000 12,400 10,000 39,700 39,700 24,000 20,000 34,600 28,700 19,700 20,100 37,000 37,400 14,500 14,600 27,000 26,100 18,500 17,100 23,200 22,100 12,500 13,800 15,600 14,800 11,200 11,300 18,400 14,400 14,500 13,200 12,600 12,800
Change % 2012 21,700 5,100 33,400 16,100 10,500 25,900 13,900 28,800 31,300 31,400 16,100
89-98 98-05 05-12
% of population 1989 1998 2005 2012 9.1 8.4 9.3 9.8 124.5 88.5 47.1 69.2 17.9 11.8 12. 3 15.2 6.3 6.1 8.5 6.5 7.5 6.1 5.6 5.8 8.5 8.8 8.9 10.2 6.7 5.9 7.3 6.7 16.8 14.8 14.7 18.2 8.7 6.3 7.3 10.3 14.6 11.5 10.9 11.4 4.4 4.4 4.9 5.2
-1 -15 -15 +21 -15 +11 -6 +6 -22 -18 +7
+31 -7 +10 +52 +4 +4 +28 +9 +17 -3 +20
+6 +24 +17 -10 +6 +28 +5 +5 +60 +15 +33
39,400 14,900 32,400 320,900
+1 +3 +4 -5
+9 +6 -1 +11
+52 +27 +17 +21
10.8 10.4 6.6 6.1 10.5 10.6 11.1 8.9
9,700 21,900 11,100 41,600 23,900 35,500 23,600 39,600 19,100 26,400 16,300 24,600 15,900 14,800 14,700 15,400 14,600 14,400
-17 +22 -23 +13 -24 -21 -6 +15 -17 +2 -5 +18 +17 -1 -24 -19 -17 -18
-13 +2 -19 0 -17 -17 +2 +1 +1 -3 -8 -5 +10 -5 +1 -22 -9 +2
+31 +15 +11 +5 +20 +24 +17 +6 +31 +1 -5 +11 +15 0 +30 +4 +11 +13
7.0 5.2 7.5 14.3 10.7 13.9 7.5 12.4 8.3 13.1 8.4 8.4 5.2 11.8 8.7 10.0 10.8 9.0
10.1 13.7 5.6 5.9 10.0 10.6 9.0 9.9
5.5 4.5 5.2 5.7 5.8 6.1 5.7 4.5 4.8 15.8 14.7 13.4 8.1 6.6 7.7 10.3 8.4 9.8 6.6 6.6 7.0 14.0 13. 3 12.7 6.8 6.4 7.5 12.9 12.2 11.0 8.2 7.5 6.9 9.3 8.8 9.0 5.9 6.5 6.3 10.7 9.7 9.2 6.1 5.8 7.4 8.0 5.8 5.5 7.8 7.2 7.8 7.2 7.2 7.6
Waltham Forest Outer London
13,000 15,600 14,800 17,500 398,000 378,200 357,300 400,600
+20 -5
-5 -6
+18 +12
6.1 8.9
7.1 8.5
6.6 7.9
6.8 8.1
Greater London % Inner of Total
649,600 617,900 623,000 721,500 39% 39% 43% 44%
-5
+1
+16
9.6
8.6
8.3
8.8