Evidence-Based LP
Spotting Crime before an Incident I
t all starts somewhere and somehow. Many, or maybe even most, crime attempts are spontaneous; they rarely involve much planning. But many crimes are planned, even if just a little. And often criminals and terrorists signal what they’re up to as they plan and scout. We teach our students to use “pre-incident indicators” or PIIs to detect potential events, help solve crimes, and improve prevention efforts.
Pre-Incident Indicators
Pre-incident indicators can be described as observable or otherwise detectable anomalies or incidents (clues) that may precede a crime attempt or attack. PIIs may indicate planning, preparation, recruiting, communication, scouting, or mobilization activities. It’s important to keep in mind, the observation of any one indicator may not, by itself, suggest a possible attack; contextual clusters of PIIs are better indicators. PIIs can help determine: ■ A specific asset being targeted, ■ The general or specific timing of a planned attack, and ■ The attack method and tools to be used. Following are examples of PIIs for both robbery and terrorism activities. ■ Robbery—Individual makes one or more visits, drives slowly through the parking lot, is spotted concealed behind a dumpster, or loiters by the cash office. ■ Terrorism—One or more subjects is seen taking photos; uses twitter or texting to report details, recruit, or otherwise communicate; is seen loitering near targets.
Often criminals and terrorists signal what they’re up to as they plan and scout. It is important for loss prevention teams to identify important clusters of PIIs that could indicate pre-planning, and then to pass these on to field teams. Most retailers prefer very suspicious and potentially violent situations be reported to the proper authorities rather than have store employees trying to take action. We also teach our classes that post-crime investigations should include looking for signs of pre-strike scouting or set up, such as hiding spots or previously unknown communications or tool acquisition, since this helps identify serial crime situations. Further, knowing about PIIs helps LP departments plan PII detection programs and crime prevention actions.
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january - february 2012
by Read Hayes, Ph.D., CPP
Dr. Hayes is director of the Loss Prevention Research Council and coordinator of the Loss Prevention Research Team at the University of Florida. He can be reached at 321-303-6193 or via email at rhayes@lpresearch.org. © 2012 Loss Prevention Research Council
Predatory Criminal Styles
Another important concept LP professionals should consider using with serial offenders and crimes is to learn how to profile offender hunting and attack styles. In a 2007 Journal of Family Violence article, criminologists Beauregard, Rossmo, and Proulx broke these styles down to aid criminal investigations and preventive programs alike. Most offenders use some rationality as they search for, assess, and commit crimes. This rational choice perspective is what drives most crime prevention efforts, including our team’s research and development projects. In the case of serial criminals, Beauregard and his coauthors recommend looking at these factors: ■ Offender and victim routine activities ■ Choice of hunting ground ■ Victim selection ■ Method of approach ■ Attack location choice ■ Method to bring the victim to the crime site (if applicable) ■ Crime location choice ■ Method to commit the crime ■ Victim release location choice (if applicable) Based on this approach, the authors propose several main hunting styles: ■ The Hunter—committed within an offender’s city ■ The Poacher—outside city or other than home base ■ The Troller—opportunistic, encounters victims through routine activities ■ The Trapper—potential victims come to them (such as child care centers) And just as important, actual attack styles include: ■ The Raptor—attacks almost immediately upon encountering ■ The Stalker—follows, watches, waits for opportune moment ■ The Ambusher—committed where the offender has a great deal of control
Theory vs. Practice
Why is this information important to loss prevention professionals? Commercial robbery, burglary, and booster groups; bad-check passers, diversion groups, fraudsters, rapists, abductors, child abusers, and murderers all regularly shop in retail stores, and many hunt and attack there. We recommend LP executives learn more about the whys and hows of these dangerous people to better protect customers and employees, and, hopefully, help law enforcement apprehend them. |
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