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GAME THEORY
The Greatest Tennis Player of All Time Three tennis players who are candidates for GOAT—greatest of all time— have faced each other repeatedly. Luckbox picks the best. By Andrew Prochnow
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OAT, which stands for “greatest of all time,” is usually applied to sports. But choosing the GOAT inevitably leads to controversy. Who’s better—Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds? Michael Jordan or LeBron James? Tom Brady or Joe Montana? Joe Louis or Muhammad Ali? Mario Andretti or Michael Schumacher? Man O’ War or Secretariat? The passage of time has made it impossible to conduct direct matchups of some of those and other potential GOATs. In one example, Ruth died in 1948, and Bonds was born in 1964. But in tennis that’s arguably not the case. Three of the all-time greats—Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal— have faced each other numerous times and are still playing. Djokovic and Nadal have played 54 matches, and it’s nearly a dead heat. Djokovic is leading 28-26. Federer and Nadal have met on the court 40 times, with Nadal emerging victorious 24 times, besting Federer’s 16 wins. Federer and Djokovic have nearly split their 49 matches, with Djokovic leading 26-23. Those three players and other tennis greats qualify for consideration as the GOAT player, but analysts agree that Djokovic and Nadal are probably competing in the sport’s GOAT rivalry. The pair has played each other an incredible number of times, the matches have been spectacular and the two players are less than a year apart in age. The Djokovic-Nadal competition was particularly hard-fought in 2019. They evenly split the four majors, and Nadal only managed to edge out Djokovic to clinch the year’s No. 1 ranking during the final tournament of
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the year, the Nitto ATP Finals in London. While Djokovic and Nadal were eliminated during the round robin stage in London— partly because of exhaustion from a long year— it was Djokovic who needed favorable results in London and couldn’t find them. Djokovic was knocked out of the race for No. 1 by a familiar nemesis—none other than Federer. Had Djokovic won that match, and gone on to win the tournament, he would have cemented his sixth year-end No. 1 trophy and tied with the record holder in that category, Pete Sampras. Instead, Nadal’s ascension to No. 1 at the end of 2019 means that each of the so-called “Big 3” players—Nadal, Djokovic and Federer—have now earned that honor on five occasions. A situation that long-time player, coach and analyst Patrick McEnroe referred to as “justice.” Aside from the end-of-year rankings, some tectonic shifts in the GOAT narrative occurred during 2019. Taking home two Slam trophies, Nadal now sits only one major behind Federer in the record books of tennis history—a distinction many view as the most prestigious in the game. Age matters For a large percentage of tennis fans, the fact that Federer still holds the all-time record for Slam titles (in the men’s game) is evidence enough that he’s the sport’s GOAT. But for others, the line between the accomplishments of Nadal and Federer is blurred, considering what Nadal has achieved through the age of 33½, compared with what Federer had achieved by that age. For example, at 33½
years old, Federer had claimed 17 majors, two fewer than Nadal’s tally. Also note that since turning 30, Nadal has twice (2017 and 2019) achieved the year-end No. 1 designation. Nadal holds the record as the oldest-ever year-end No. 1 in tennis history (33½). The last time Federer was ranked No. 1 to end a season was a decade ago, when he was 28 years old. Assume for a moment that Slam titles and year-end No. 1 designations aren’t the only relevant achievements for GOAT. Further assume the GOAT designation even makes sense when comparing players from different eras. Moving beyond that limitation, what does the historical data indicate regarding the careers of Federer and Nadal? The table on the facing page suggests their “GOAT race” remains extremely tight. Just remember Federer is five years older than Nadal, and six years older than another GOAT candidate, Djokovic. A “final” analysis can’t be conducted until all of the Big 3 retire. Federer remains the all-time record holder on the men’s side of the game with 20 Slam titles. However, the fact that Nadal holds 19 majors and is five years younger than Federer would suggest that lead is tenuous. Besides, Nadal holds the record for the most Masters 1000 titles in tennis history and leads Federer by a considerable margin in that category. The Masters 1000 includes an annual series of nine tournaments held around the world which constitutes the level immediately below the Grand Slams. Nadal has taken home seven more Masters 1000 trophies than Federer despite the fact that he is five years younger.
luckbox | january 2020
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12/20/19 1:44 PM
