trends
THE POKER TRADE
Bluffing Is Real
Blurring the line between real and fake can help a savvy player steal some pots By Jonathan Little
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n poker, investing and life, things are not always as they appear. In poker, it’s often because of bluffing. Most poker players, especially those who frequent small-stakes cash games and tournaments, think the optimal winning strategy is rigid, tight and aggressive. They win most pots that belong to them, plus a few more when their opponents play poorly. This strategy keeps variance low and provides an edge, but that edge remains consistently small. Against opponents who aren’t world-class—which includes nearly everyone—a player will win significantly more money by playing in a manner that exploits suboptimal tendencies. That usually means getting maximum value from premium hands, as many recreational players already know how to do, but also by stealing undeserved pots. Don’t get the idea that playing in a generally tight, aggressive style is bad. The problem is that this straightforward strategy does not exploit other tight, aggressive players. Almost every poker player has studied one of the now-outdated books that advocate playing mostly premium hands. These players are good at being patient and getting paid off when they are fortunate enough to make the nuts against their oblivious opponents. These sporadic large wins are enough to beat the worst players in the small stakes games for a small amount. As players move up in stakes, they face fewer and fewer bad players. Most middle and high stakes players strive to ensure they do not make the blunders that the worst players make. This desire to avoid appearing dumb
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opens the door for a savvy player to steal pots when tight, aggressive players don’t have a strong hand. In graphs of winning online poker players, tracking programs display a green line (the total profit), a red line (the non-showdown winnings) and a blue line (the showdown winnings).
(See “Color coded,” below.) Most winning small stakes players have a highly positive blue line (when they go to showdown) and a breakeven or negative red line (when they win by making their opponents fold). This implies that to beat the worst players, it’s good to play tightly (giving
Color coded In graphs of winning online poker players, tracking programs display a green line (the total profit), a red line (the non-showdown winnings) and a blue line (the showdown winnings).
Figure out when an opponent’s checks indicate weakness, and then apply enough pressure to make him fold the vast majority of his range.
luckbox | january 2020
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12/20/19 1:53 PM
