Belmont Stakes 2016 - Betting Guide

Betting guide BouCing Bull

page 04 rested horse ruBish

page 06

comments by

Derek Simon

Born for the Belmont

page 08 Contender analysis

page 12

04

06

Bouncing Bull

resTed horse ruBish

Ever since Super Saver retreated like a hair-

Horse bettors are always looking for a

line at a 20-year high school reunion around

"rested" horse in the third leg of the Triple

the far turn in the 2010 Preakness Stakes, I’ve been giving a lot of thought to “bouncing.”

Crown, but do freshened steeds really per-

US Racing 2016

form better in the Test of Champions?

Belmont StakeS Betting guide

08

12

Born for The BelmonT

conTender AnAlysis

Are some Belmont entrants better bets simply based on their birthday?

02 USR Content

Horse-by-horse analysis of the 2016 Belmont Stakes, including past performances with speed and pace figures.

editoR

eDiTor LeTTer

deAr reAders, It is with great pleasure that I present US Racing’s 2016 Belmont Stakes Betting Guide. Inside these pages you will find a variety of great insights and important information regarding the Test of Champions. Among the questions I will attempt to answer are: -Do “rested” horses perform better in the final leg of the Triple Crown?

- Are some horses born to run well in the Belmont?

- How important is early speed or the lack thereof?

There’s even an article examining the “Bounce Theory” (the notion that horses regress after a peak performance due to fatigue).

But wait, there’s more (I feel like the host of an infomercial)… In addition to all of the wonderful articles and commentary, readers will also find my exclusive Pace Profile Report, which contains speed and pace figures for all the Belmont entrants.

These figures have been a key to my own handicapping success and I hope they will help all of you cash a few extra tickets as well.

I hope you get a lot out of US Racing’s 2016 Belmont Stakes Betting Guide and that it helps you enjoy the big race even more.

Also, remember you can bet the big race — and a variety of props — at www.usracing.com.

Warmest regards,

Derek Simon 03 USR editorial

BounCing Bull By derek Simoni

Ever since Super Saver retreated like a hairline at a 20-year high school reunion around the far turn in the 2010 Preakness Stakes, I’ve been giving a lot of thought to “bouncing.” Not the “Roadhouse” kind of bouncing, mind you — I tried that once and, surprisingly, it wasn’t that glamorous.

No, the type of bouncing I’m talking about relates to horse racing and, specifically, the belief that an animal coming off a hard race or series of hard races will invariably regress, or “bounce,” in its next start if not given the proper amount of time to recover. First advanced by Len Ragozin of “The Sheets,” the “Bounce Theory” has gone from a controversial premise once mocked by Andrew Beyer, to an accepted handicapping tenet — right up there with “thou shalt not bet against Bob Baffert in a Triple Crown race.”

Moreover, Beyer’s no longer laughing. In fact, in “Beyer on Speed,” the speed figure guru even added to the Bounce Theory lexicon with his “Three-and-Out” pattern, the author’s observation that a sequence of three improving Beyer speed figures often leads to a pronounced rating decline. But is that erosion due to the stress from a taxing effort or does it simply represent a return to the mean? After all, when Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 points against the New York Knicks on March 2, 1962, did he bounce two days later when he tallied just 58? When Dallas Braden, a guy with a 4.16 career ERA, pitched a perfect game on May 9, 2010, did he bounce in his subsequent start when he allowed four earned runs in eight innings of work (4.50 ERA)?

Personally, I don’t think so. Chamberlain never scored 100 points in a single game again and Braden was out of baseball following an injury the following year. Like Bellamy Road in the 2005 Wood Memorial, Arazi in the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or Da’ Tara in the 2008 Belmont, Chamberlain and Braden had their moment in the sun… and then the moment was gone.

The mistake, as it relates to horseracing and the Bounce Theory, is in believing that such a moment is indicative of one’s overall talent level. Just like the duffer that shoots a hole-in-one or the weekend warrior that bowls a 300 game, all of us, with the possible exception of the cast of “MacGruber,” are capable of greatness on occasion. What makes one truly exceptional is the ability to maintain a high level of performance over longer periods of time.

4 USR Betting guide

Hence, I contend that what many handicappers term a “bounce” is nothing more than a regression of form, born out of a horse’s general lack of consistency. In other words, it is a perfectly normal (dare I say expected) reversal of fortune.

To test my theory, I decided to take a look at horses that won their last race by less than a half-length (i.e. a tough effort) as well as horses that recorded a career-best speed figure in their last race and group them by their overall winning rates over the past two years. If my hypothesis is correct, one would expect to see more successful horses — those with higher winning rates — bounce less often. However, unlike other studies, I did not use speed figures as evidence for or against a bounce; one cannot cash a speed figure — trust me, I’ve tried. Instead, I focused solely on winning percentages and ROI. Using my own database of over 14,000 thoroughbred races, I obtained the following data:

Matched/Esceeded lifetime-Best Brisnet Speed Figure in Last Race Win Rate

Number

Wins

$2 Return

ROI

IV

OBIV

0.0% to 19.9%

5,701

826

$1.46

-26.86%

1.15

0.81

20.0% to 39.9%

2,634

453

$1.51

-24.64%

1.28

0.81

40.0% to 59.9%

504

120

$1.64

-17.84%

2.48

1.05

60.0% & Up

93

31

$2.13

6.45%

2.48

1.05

WON LAST RACE BY A HALF-LENGTH OR LESS Win Rate

Number

Wins

$2 Return

ROI

IV

OBIV

0.0% to 19.9%

1,246

136

$1.25

-37.51%

0.84

0.77

20.0% to 39.9%

1,392

228

$1.75

-12.70%

1.21

0.84

40.0% to 59.9%

310

63

$1.78

-11.24%

1.51

0.84

60.0% & Up

73

22

$2.60

30.07%

2.27

0.97

Note: Only horses with five or more lifetime starts were considered.

What does this prove? Well, to be honest, not much. But it does disprove the notion that horses are destined to run poorly after a demanding effort.

So, the next time you see a horse with a towering speed figure or one that you believe may have left its guts on the racetrack last time out, don’t be so quick to dismiss it. Examine the horse’s past performances and then check the tote board — the odds might be crazy.

ODDS-BASED IMPACT VALUE Greater than 0.85

Factor(s) have/has a positive impact.

0.80-0.85

Factor(s) have/has no significant impact.

Less than 0.80

Factor(s) have/has a negative impact

5 USR Betting guide

rested horse ruBBish

By derek Simoni

"conquistador cielo Won By 14 lengThs in what, from a pace standpoint, was one of the most impressive Belmont Stakes wins ever.

Mere moments after Tonalist thwarted California

Of course, Coburn was parroting the widespread belief

Chrome’s quest to become the 12th Triple Crown cham-

that Tonalist had an advantage over Chrome because

pion in thoroughbred racing history, Steve Coburn,

the former was “rested,” whereas the latter had been

one of the colt’s owners, blasted the Belmont winner.

through the “rigors” of the Triple Crown chase.

“It's all or nothing,” Coburn said. “… It's not fair to these other horses that have been running their guts out for these people and for the people who believe in them.

This is the coward's way out in my opinion. This is a coward's way out.”

"neArly Three decAdes eArlier, on June 9, 1979, coAsTAl mAde his second sTArT in 27 dAys A memorABle one"

7 USR Betting guide

Nearly three decades earlier, on June 9, 1979, Coastal made his second start in 27 days a memorable one, as he defeated the “fresh” Spectacular Bid, who was making his second start in 35 days, in the Belmont Stakes.

Three years after that, Woody Stephens began his amazing five-year run of Big Apple glory with ConHogwash. Hooey. Hokum.

quistador Cielo, a colt who was coming back on five days rest and who was making his fourth start

There is, perhaps, no greater lie in the Sport of

in 28 days in in the 1982 Test of Champions.

Kings — and that’s saying something — than the notion that racing on a consistent basis is detrimen-

Conquistador Cielo won by 14 lengths in what,

tal to a horse’s health. It’s kind of like claiming that

from a pace standpoint, was one of the most im-

regular exercise is harmful to humans.

pressive Belmont Stakes wins ever.

Since at least 1970 (my bloodshot eyes prevented

Add to all this the fact that horses who are on the

me from going back any further), every winner of

track training — early and often — following their

the Belmont Stakes had raced within the past 36

last race have far more success in the Belmont

days — every single one.

than horses who “rest up” in the barn, as the following chart graphically illustrates:

And prior to Tonalist, who hadn’t raced much, period (he came into the Belmont with just four lifetime starts), the last horse to break up a Triple Crown bid was Da’ Tara, who had started three times in the past 70 days — exactly the same number of starts as Big Brown made during that time… oh, and Da’ Tara’s last race came on the same day, at the same track, as Brown’s too.

Workouts Since Last Race Race

Number

Wins

Win Rate

Return

ROI

IV

OBIV

Zero

5

0

0.0%

$-

-100.00%

0.00

0.00

One

44

2

4.5%

$ 83.30

-5.34%

0.48

0.38

Two

46

7

15.2%

$ 244.50

165.76%

1.48

0.98

Three

45

5

11.1%

$ 168.00

86.67%

1.19

1.15

Four

16

2

12.5%

$ 45.60

42.50%

1.20

1.32

Fover or more

6

0

0.0%

$-

-100.00%

0.00

0.00

8 USR Betting guide

Born for the Belmont

By derek Simoni

When American Pharoah won the Belmont Stakes last year, he did something that has been accomplished just eight times since 1941.No, I’m not talking about winning the Triple Clown — that’s statistically easy by comparison. I’m talking about annexing the Belmont Stakes as a February foal.

A dozen horses have won the Test of Champions after first capturing the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, yet only seven thoroughbreds known to be foaled in the month of February have, likewise, passed the Test. Notable February failures at Big Sandy include California Chrome, Orb, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Silver Charm and Spectacular Bid. True, Chrome lost to Tonalist, who was also born in the second calendar month of the year, but that’s still only seven February foal winners from 67 editions of the Belmont in which the birth date of the victor was known.

Now, I know what some of you are think-

RT a T S R, E H a L T “aT THE YE OF aL OF THinK RSES WE SE HO -YE aR THE HREE ainER r T aS S,” TR Tche OLD d Ple n.

Tod d esP Tol 10 USR Betting guide

ing: this guy has flipped his lid — birthdays as a handicapping factor, he must be joking? Well, all I can say is that many industry insiders believe that foaling dates are of great importance.

“At the start of the year, we think of all these horses as threeyear-olds,” trainer Todd Pletcher told ESPN, “but some of them might not actually be three for another two or three months.

And 60 or 90 days can be very important in a young horse's development.”

Ag re A Te of xA Th i s leg WA m Ple end sT he go A ry ,W fo r ho on eW As AP ri l Bo rn dav 3 0 e S , 19 chw We artz bs 70. ite , w it

11 USR Betting guide

t y, e ho xam heHor r ran seH uns th i n e d o in n and e e v i x o tha t ap rth am er 638 cappin cellen t g , pro 0 e a wer 00 rica xi e b hor uthorin 2 orn mately s bor e 014 s th in n six at and per in b in Feb Janua f c o ent rua ry; oth u n d ry; 19 ma of foa 30 rc led per percen them in m h and cen cen ap ay t en t w t were ere tere ; and t ril; 14 h p b d th e w e rema ercent orn orld inin wer g on e in la and e pe ter gue mo r whi s nth s ch s. has what? me the long mb e r t ken stre me h t nta l-Fr at old ssed p ucky the der e r e e d c -Ha ro ndic osage ocity — by, dom unds a a plus inat p sy ref ed b ew ye ars stem t experi in f y e hat arly a act m , us foa go? — est ing ls. has ade abli the sh i bee foll per mp n owi act cen ng: tag valu es es, ab we disc ove to ove r th e

KentuCKy derBy By derek Simoni

Kentucky Derby Month Born

Winners

IV

January

1

0.21

February

20

1.30

March

28

1.18

April

21

0.87

May

10

0.89

June-December

0

0.00

Now, the interesting part: Take a look at a similar table documenting Belmont winners whose birthdates were known.

12 USR Betting guide

Belmont staKes

By derek Simoni

Notice the shift? Instead of February and March being the

Belmont Stakes

most prolific foaling months for Belmont winners (like they

Month Born

Winners

IV

were for Derby champs), March and April claim that honor.

January

0

0.00

I don’t think this is coincidental. Going back to Todd

February

8

0.61

Pletcher’s comments, it seems reasonable to assume

March

21

1.04

April

30

1.47

the media), but, rather, the very real possibility that, by the

May

9

0.95

time the Belmont rolls around, later foals have caught up

June-December

0

0.00

that the greatest detriment to winning a Triple Crown is not the rigors of the campaign (as is so often lamented in

to their more mature rivals.

A great example of this was the legendary Forego, who was born on April 30, 1970. The gelded son of Forli won “just” three of his first nine starts before visiting the winner’s circle 29 times in his next 42 trips to post en route to three consecutive Horse of the Year titles from 1974-76. In fact, a 1997 study by Bertrand Langlois and Christine Blouin seems to suggest that the month of birth plays a role in total earnings and earnings per start up until the age of five, when the effect dissipates. So, with this in mind, let’s take a look at the birth months of this year’s Belmont entrants:

BELMONT ENTRANT (MONTH BORN) • BRODY'S CAUSE (March) • CHERRY WINE (February) • CREATOR (March) • DESTIN (April) • EXAGGERATOR (February) • FOREVER D'ORO (May) • GETTYSBURG (March)

14 USR Betting guide

• GOVERNOR MALIBU (February) • LANI (February) • SEEKING THE SOUL (May) • STRADIVARI (April) • SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (May) • TROJAN NATION (March)

Pros: Closed well in the Peter Pan — a traditional

Pros: Ran the race of his life in the Preakness

Belmont Stakes prep — to finish a close second to

Stakes to catch a weary Nyquist for second place.

Unified. Since 2000, horses that raced at least once at Belmont Park prior to the Test of Champions have

cons: His lack of early speed is a huge concern

recorded a 1.20 impact value and returned $5.54 for

and any kind of regression — which I fear is likely

every $2 bet to win. The son of Malibu Moon also

— makes a win against this caliber unlikely. Worse,

has enough early speed to be a factor early.

steeds with a Brisnet distance rating of 108 or less are 1-for-43 in the Belmont and have produced a -95

cons: His speed figures and early speed rations

percent ROI. Cherry Wine has a rating of 105.

are mediocre at best.

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS Pros: Had a rough trip in Louisville, but still closed desTin

like a freight train down the stretch. His last two speed figures also suggest that he may have es-

Pros: Ran reasonably well off of a layoff in the

tablished a new performance baseline and could be

Kentucky Derby and has had three workouts since,

ready to move forward again in the Big Apple.

a tactic that has produced an 86 percent ROI since 2000. Additionally, his overall late speed rations

cons: Horses with less than two Quirin speed

(LSRs) rank third in the field, a trait shared by four

points (like this guy) are 3-for-53 in the Belmont

previous Belmont winners since 2000.

over the past 16 years. In races with a projected early speed ration (ESR) of -5 or greater (like Satur-

cons: The Belmont Stakes is all about finding value and, at 6-1 on the morning, Destin offers very little.

15 USR Betting guide

day’s renewal), they are 1-for-17.

By derek Simoni

cherry Wine

Contender analysis

GOVERNOR MALIBU

STRADIVARI

geTTysBurg

Pros: Ran greenly in the Preakness, which isn’t that

Pros: Likely to be on the engine in a race with-

surprising given his lack of experience. His overall

out a lot of early zip (projected ESR of -3). He also

speed and pace figures are strong and the probable

has two previous runs over the Belmont Park strip,

soft pace on Saturday suits.

which is a huge plus.

cons: Has only had one workout since his last race

cons: Only one horse with more than five Quirin

and his 5-1 morning line odds hardly entice.

speed points has won the Belmont since 2000; that was American Pharoah last year. Even worse, Gettysburg last competed in an optional claimer — not exactly a recipe for Big Apple success.

SEEKING THE SOUL Pros: Just broke his maiden in game fashion last

FOREVER D’ORO

time and has shown improvement in every start.

Pros: Another who just broke his maiden, this guy cons: Horses that last raced in a maiden or al-

earned a race-best -4 LSR in his last start.

lowance race are 0-for-14 in the Belmont over the past 16 years. Son of Perfect Soul may have some

cons: In addition to the disadvantage of exiting a

distance limitations too (Brisnet distance rating of

maiden race (see above), this son of Medaglia d’Oro

108).

is also slow… or so his speed figures imply.

16 USR Betting guide

lAni TroJAn nATion

Pros: Ran lights-out in the Wood Memorial and,

Pros: Ran lights-out in the Wood Memorial and,

outside of the Kentucky Derby, has always given a

outside of the Kentucky Derby, has always given a

good account of himself.

good account of himself. cons: He’s still a maiden; plus, horses with a cons: He’s still a maiden; plus, horses with a

median ESR of +1 or greater are 1-for-43 in Elmont,

median ESR of

NY.

BRODY’S CAUSE exAggerATor Pros: He’s been competitive against the best of the Pros: He’s the only horse in the field to have met

best ever since he was a juvenile. His performance

the Belmont Stakes speed par last time, joining

in the Kentucky Derby wasn’t great, but it wasn’t bad

25 others over the past 16 years. Of those 25, six

either and it came after a big win in the Blue Grass

landed in the winner’s circle, returning $7.54 for ev-

Stakes, giving rise to the possibility that the son of

ery two bucks bet to win. He also owns my top Per-

Giant’s Causeway may have “bounced” that day. His

ceived Ability Rating (PAR), which has produced the

20-1 morning line odds are enticing as well.

Belmont winner seven times in 16 tries since 2000 (192 percent ROI).

cons: Dale Romans trainee is another with no (demonstrated) early lick.

cons: Although favorites have historically done well in the Belmont (42.1 percent), they have se-

creATor

verely underpaid ($1.55 for every $2 win bet), which I have an inkling will be the case with Exaggerator.

Pros: Was highly regarded in Louisville after a

The single workout since the Preakness is also a

strong run in the Arkansas Derby.

concern. cons: In his win in Arkansas, he benefited from a very strong pace (-11 ESR), as the top three finishers were 12th, ninth and 11th (of 12) respectively at the

17 USR Betting guide

18 USR Betting guide

Date of race, track (abbreviation) and race number.

Distance in furlongs and surface.

Purse value.

Predicted race ESR and LSR.

Name 1-ORB (1-1) Trainer: Mcgaughey Claude Iii (0-0%-0%-0%) Jockey: Rosario Joel (0-0%-0%-0%) Class Rating: 0.26 Rank: 1

F – Front.

M/F – Middle to front.

M/R – Middle to rear.

R – Rear.

UK – Unknown.

Early position & median ESR:

Record 2013 (3): 4-4-0-0-$2,280,900 2012 (2): 4-1-0-1-$54,950 Life:8-5-0-1-$2,335,850 Style: R+2

Track CD11 GP12 GP11

DF 10.0 9.0 8.5

S Odds Purse PC Race Type D *5.4 $2,000,000 14 KyDerby-G1 D 2.9 $1,000,000 10 FlaDerby-G1 D 5.4 $400,000 6 FntnOYth-G2

! " # $

Tip(s): The Pace Profile of a particular race can be especially useful when horses are switching distances/surfaces. For example, an animal that has been competing in dirt sprints might be given extra consideration in a turf route if he/she shows a string of positive Pace Profiles, as distance races on the lawn tend to emphasize late speed.

Pace Profile: A simple comparison between a horse’s Late Speed Ration and the Early Speed Ration of the race in which it was earned. A positive profile is greatly desired and serves to authenticate an impressive LSR. The Pace Profile is an easy, yet crucial means of relating early speed to late speed.

The Late Speed Rations are also very effective in a negative context as well. Horses with consistently poor figures in relation to the rest of the field make notoriously poor favorites and can often lead to great overlays on other, less fancied runners.

Tip(s): Because late speed is measured when each horse is being asked for its maximum effort, LSRs can be a great indication of form as well. Young horses with improving Late Speed Rations are often superior to older, more experienced rivals with established figures. Furthermore, any animal that combines a positive Pace Profile with high relative LSRs and good speed figures must be given serious consideration. Entrants that show positive LSRs or those coming off of a big win punctuated by a superior LSR are especially strong contenders.

0= Excellent.

-5= Good.

-10= Fair.

-15= Poor.

Late Speed Ration (LSR): A measurement of a horse’s late energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The higher the figure, the greater the horse’s late exertion in that event.

Tip(s): Animals that combine low ESRs with high speed figures are often prime candidates to win in wire-to-wire fashion. So too are those steeds with a significant overall ESR advantage.

-15= Demanding.

-10= Brisk.

-5= Moderate.

0= Soft.

Form Days 100.0% 14 100.0% 49 100.0% 84

Program number and horse's name.

Trainer 's name (stats at track).

Jockey's name (stats at track).

Class Rating (based on earnings per start) and rank.

Exits tougher race. Best last-race speed figure.

Date 05/04/13 03/30/13 02/23/13

Early Speed Ration (ESR): A measurement of a horse’s early energy expenditure in relation to the total race requirements. The lower the figure, the greater the horse’s early exertion in that event.

1 2 3 4

05/18/2013 PIM (race 12) 9.5 furlongs (main track) Purse: $1,000,000 Projected ESR: -5 LSR: -11

Conditions

ESR LSR PP 2 -8 + 0 -4 -5 -16 -

2

Speed Rank

9

ESR Rank

5

LSR Rank

Record: Horse's starts, wins, seconds, thirds and earnings over the past two years (age in parenthesis), as well as its career totals.

Date: When the race was run.

Track: The track over which the race was run.

DF: Distance in furlongs of the race.

S: Surface on which the race was contested — “D” for dirt, “D+” for all-weather and “T” for turf. (Lower case letters denote inner track.)

Odds: Odds in race. An asterisk signifies that the horse was the betting favorite; the letter “e” indicates the horse was coupled in the wagering.

Purse: Monetary value of the race.

PC: Purse comparison between today’s race and the listed race. A “10” denotes the same value as today’s event; higher numbers indicate a larger purse value; and lower ratings specify a smaller purse value.

Race Type: Name and/or conditions of the race.

Form: Rating representing horse’s finishing position and beaten lengths (if any) in the race. A 100 percent rating designates a winning effort, whereas the closer the percentage is to zero, the worse the performance is deemed to have been.

Days: Days lapsed since race was run.

Speed Ratings: Numerical representation of a how fast the horse ran. Ratings of 100 or greater indicate a performance equal to or exceeding par.

ESR: Early Speed Ration (see explanation at left).

LSR: Late Speed Ration (see explanation at left).

PP: Pace Profile (see explanation at left). A "!" sign indicates that the figures were earned over a different surface than today's.

Speed, ESR and LSR Rank: Ranking of each horse’s median Speed Ratings, ESRs and LSRs. A plus sign (+) denotes that the horse has a significant advantage in that category. Two plus signs (++) indicate that the advantage is overwhelming.

Data highlights.

Speed Ratings 108 94 99 94 108 99

19 USR Betting guide

06/11/2016 BEL (race 11) 12.0 furlongs (main track) Purse: $1,500,000 Projected ESR: -3 LSR: -4

Conditions

46.6% 90.8% 38.8%

55.8% 21 100.0% 55 100.0% 189

43.2% 39.1% 85.7%

0.1% 99.0% 59.8%

42.9% 9.4% 100.0%

100.0% 91.7% 100.0%

15.7% 100.0% 5.7%

2016 (3): 4-1-1-0-$587,000 05/07/16 CD12 10.0 D 24.6 $2,000,000 12 KyDerby-G1 2015 (2): 5-2-3-0-$143,032 04/16/16 OP11 9.0 D 5.4 $1,000,000 8 ArkDerby-G1 Life:9-3-4-0-$730,032 03/19/16 OP10 8.5 D *2.7 $900,000 8 Rebel-G2 Style: R+0 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Recent LSRs do not me et race avg.

2016 (3): 2-1-0-0-$127,200 05/21/16 PIM13 9.5 D 8.0 $1,500,000 10 Preaknes-G1 2015 (2): 2-1-0-0-$27,000 04/17/16 KEE2 9.0 D 1.4 $62,000 2 Alw59585n1x Life:4-2-0-0-$154,200 12/05/15 GP1 8.5 D 1.8 $50,000 2 MdSpWt Style: F-2 Advantageous pace scenario. Best last-race ESR.

42.1 $2,000,000 12 KyDerby-G1 81.5 $1,000,000 8 WoodMem-G1 10.7 $56,000 2 MdSpWt

2016 (3): 3-1-0-0-$48,660 2015 (2): 0-0-0-0-$00 Life:3-1-0-0-$48,660 Style: R+0 2016 (3): 4-0-1-2-$203,440 05/07/16 CD12 10.0 D 2015 (2): 3-0-0-1-$9,850 04/09/16 AQU10 9.0 D Life:7-0-1-3-$213,290 03/06/16 SA6 8.0 D Style: R+1 Disadvantageous pace scenario.

2016 (3): 5-2-2-1-$1,988,00005/21/16 PIM13 9.5 D 2.6 $1,500,000 10 Preaknes-G1 2015 (2): 6-3-1-0-$983,120 05/07/16 CD12 10.0 D 5.1 $2,000,000 12 KyDerby-G1 Life:11-5-3-1-$2,971,120 04/09/16 SA8 9.0 D 3.4 $1,000,000 8 SADerby-G1 Style: R+0 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Best last-race speedfigure.

16.4 $2,000,000 12 KyDerby-G1 11.6 $1,000,000 8 ArkDerby-G1 8.2e $900,000 8 Rebel-G2

D D D

2016 (3): 3-1-1-0-$34,568 2015 (2): 0-0-0-0-$00 Life:3-1-1-0-$34,568 Style: R-4

2016 (3): 4-1-0-0-$1,260,98405/21/16 PIM13 9.5 D 30.4 $1,500,000 10 Preaknes-G1 2015 (2): 4-2-1-0-$150,634 05/07/16 CD12 10.0 D 29.3 $2,000,000 12 KyDerby-G1 Life:8-3-1-0-$1,411,618 03/26/16 MEY3 9.4 D $2,000,000 12 U Drby Spns-G2 Style: R+7 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Recent LSRs do not me et race avg.

24.9 $2,000,000 12 KyDerby-G1 4.2 $1,000,000 8 BlueGras-G1 *2.3 $350,000 5 TamDby-G2

D D D

2016 (3): 5-1-1-1-$159,000 05/26/16 BEL8 8.5 2015 (2): 2-0-0-1-$4,215 04/16/16 OP11 9.0 Life:7-1-1-2-$163,215 03/20/16 SUN9 9.0 Style: F-2 Advantageous pace scenario.

2016 (3): 3-1-0-0-$600,000 05/07/16 CD12 10.0 D 2015 (2): 4-2-0-1-$523,138 04/09/16 KEE10 9.0 D Life:7-3-0-1-$1,123,138 03/12/16 TAM11 8.5 D Style: R+0 Disadvantageous pace scenario.

10.0 D 2016 (3): 5-2-1-1-$740,000 05/07/16 CD12 2015 (2): 4-0-3-0-$28,320 04/16/16 OP11 9.0 D Life:9-2-4-1-$768,320 03/19/16 OP10 8.5 D Style: R+2 Disadvantageous pace scenario.

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (10-1) Trainer: Von Hemel Donnie K (0-0%-0%-0%) Jockey: Smith M E (0-0%-0%-0%) Class Rating: 0.05 Rank: 5

STRADIVARI (5-1) Trainer: Pletcher Todd A (71-17%-25%-32%) Jockey: Velazquez J R (98-19%-32%-45%) Class Rating: 0.02 Rank: 10

GETTYSBURG (30-1) Trainer: Asmussen Steven M (16-19%-31%-44%) Jockey: Lopez Pascacio (0-0%-0%-0%) Class Rating: 0.01 Rank: 11

SEEKING THE SOUL (30-1) Trainer: Stewart Dallas (1-100%-100%-100%) Jockey: Geroux Florent (0-0%-0%-0%) Class Rating: 0.00 Rank: 13

FOREVER D'ORO (30-1) Trainer: Stewart Dallas (1-100%-100%-100%) Jockey: Ortiz Jose L (203-25%-38%-55%) Class Rating: 0.01 Rank: 12

TROJAN NATION (30-1) Trainer: Gallagher Patrick (0-0%-0%-0%) Jockey: Gryder A T (20-10%-20%-25%) Class Rating: 0.02 Rank: 8

LANI (20-1) Trainer: Matsunaga Mikio (0-0%-0%-0%) Jockey: Take Y (0-0%-0%-0%) Class Rating: 0.11 Rank: 2

EXAGGERATOR (9-5) Trainer: Desormeaux J Keith (0-0%-0%-0%) Jockey: Desormeaux K J (0-0%-0%-0%) Class Rating: 0.18 Rank: 1

BRODY'S CAUSE (20-1) Trainer: Romans Dale (0-0%-0%-0%) Jockey: Saez Luis (125-11%-22%-37%) Class Rating: 0.09 Rank: 3

CREATOR (10-1) Trainer: Asmussen Steven M (16-19%-31%-44%) Jockey: Ortiz Irad Jr (147-16%-39%-49%) Class Rating: 0.05 Rank: 4

8.0 6.5 6.0 3.3 4.6 3.2 $50,000 $62,000 $40,000

8.5 9.0 7.0 D D D *1.2 $75,000 *2.6 $62,000 8.8 $60,000

Disadvantageous pace scenario. Best last-race LSR.

05/29/16 BEL5 05/07/16 CD14 04/09/16 KEE4

2 MdSpWt 2 MdSpWt 2 MdSpWt

2 MdSpWt 2 MdSpWt 2 MdSpWt

*1.3 $77,000 2 OC80000n1x 14.4 $1,000,000 8 ArkDerby-G1 1.6 $415,000 5 SunFtvRcgB415k

Disadvantageous pace scenario. Removed blinkers inatest. l

05/29/16 CD5 05/07/16 CD3 02/20/16 FG3

77.5% 78.3% 46.1%

2016 (3): 4-1-1-1-$467,800 05/21/16 PIM13 9.5 D 17.3 $1,500,000 10 Preaknes-G1 2015 (2): 5-1-1-1-$51,078 04/09/16 KEE10 9.0 D 4.9 $1,000,000 8 BlueGras-G1 Life:9-2-2-2-$518,878 03/19/16 OP10 8.5 D 7.7 $900,000 8 Rebel-G2 Style: R+2 Disadvantageous pace scenario. Recent LSRs do not me et race avg.

0.9% 100.0% 67.9%

100.0% 34.2% 31.7%

35 56 84

35 63 91

21 35 63

21 35 77

35 63 97

13 35 63

100.0% 13 21.3% 35 86.6% 112

16 56 83

35 56 84

21 63 84

28.5% 35 100.0% 91 100.0% 119

CHERRY WINE (8-1) Trainer: Romans Dale (0-0%-0%-0%) Jockey: Lanerie C J (0-0%-0%-0%) Class Rating: 0.04 Rank: 6

18.0 $2,000,000 12 KyDerby-G1 3.6 $350,000 5 TamDby-G2 4.0 $250,000 4 SFDavis-G3

S Odds Purse PC Conditions Form Days D 12.5 $200,000 4 PeterPan-G2 94.4% 28 D 2.6 $100,000 3 FdrcoTesoB100k 100.0% 63 d 4.6 $100,000 3 sGanderB100k 100.0% 126

10.0 D 8.5 D 8.5 D

DF 9.0 9.0 8.3

2016 (3): 4-2-0-0-$338,000 05/07/16 CD12 2015 (2): 2-1-1-0-$52,700 03/12/16 TAM11 Life:6-3-1-0-$390,700 02/13/16 TAM5 Style: M/F-1

Track BEL9 LRL2 AQU3

DESTIN (6-1) Trainer: Pletcher Todd A (71-17%-25%-32%) Jockey: Castellano J J (103-17%-28%-40%) Class Rating: 0.03 Rank: 7

Date 05/14/16 04/09/16 02/06/16

Record 2016 (3): 3-1-2-0-$120,000 2015 (2): 4-1-2-1-$89,600 Life:7-2-4-1-$209,600 Style: M/F+0

Name GOVERNOR MALIBU (12-1) Trainer: Clement Christophe (49-14%-18%-43%) Jockey: Rosario Joel (108-19%-35%-58%) Class Rating: 0.02 Rank: 9

93

81

100

0

85

91

75

98

90

91

91

98

88

98

92

101

91

94

87

84

92

99

97

90

95

95

82

92

102

96

73

88

93

89

97

97

98

95

92

Speed Ratings

9 2 0

0 0 6

-7 5 0

8 7

17 -2 1

1 -4 0

-9 -2 -4

-1 -11 -2

-9 -2 -1

15 -1 0

5 0 2

-3 -1 -1

-24 -12 -8

-15 -9 -18

-11 -7 -13

-16 -16

-32 -13 -6

-4 -9 -16

-7 -16 -11

-6 -18 -8

-15 -5 0

-10 -14 -10

-15 -11 -10

-12 -5 -1

+

-

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

-

-

+

-

-

+

-

-

-

+

-

-

-

-

+

-

-

-

+

-

-

ESR LSR PP -1 -6 4 1 0 -3 -

6

8

1

5

12

11

13

8

2 1/2

2 1/2

10

11

5

7

13

10

9

1

3

2

8

12

4

6

8

4

ESR Rank

Speed Rank

10

12

9

13

11

5

8

4

2

6

7

3

1

LSR Rank