The world of tomorrow - scenarios of our future between catastrophe and hope
By Ingar Solty[This article published in December 2019 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://www.zeitschrift-luxemburg.de/die-welt-von-morgen-szenarien-unserer-zukunftzwischen-katastrophe-und-hoffnung/
Green New Deal, crisis, neoliberalism, socialism, transformation, strategy and perspectives, right-wing populism
With the financial crash of 2008, the crises of capitalism became obvious. Many hoped for a left-wing awakening. But austerity and authoritarianism were able to assert themselves globally. In the meantime, neoliberalism has been disenchanted and the world is on fire. What are the scenarios of our future?
The crisis this time
Twelve years ago capitalism entered its deepest crisis since the 1930s. It was not only an economic crisis, but a major "organic crisis" articulated at all levels of society: as a crisis of the political and of democracy, of social reproduction, as an ecological and climate crisis, and as a crisis of the world order.
In their responses to this crisis, the rulers in the capitalist centers drew lessons from the great crises of the 20th century, which had led to the rise of right-wing national forces, to two world wars, but also to socialist revolutions. They agreed on economic stimulus packages, the purpose of which, however, was disputed within the (neo-)liberal governments: Did they serve a short-term stabilization of financial market capitalism or did they aim at its long-term reconstruction?
The crisis led to cracks and directional struggles in the ruling power bloc, in which the neoliberals finally prevailed. Around 2010, the states of the "West" switched to austerity and competition policies and to strategies of internal (and external) devaluation of costs and wages. In the euro area this led to costly bank bailouts and high levels of public debt. Individual states came under pressure from international financial markets. However, this connection was concealed. According to the prevailing interpretation, the affected states had "lived beyond their means". In return for the emergency loans from the troika, the Greek government had to commit itself to massive social cuts and privatisations. As a result, a new European economic government ("fiscal pact") permanently committed all eurozone states to a strict austerity course.
Against this policy, a transnational cycle of social movements developed, which showed an alternative path. It was a situation open to history: as in all historical crises, the class struggles were to decide on the outcome of the conflict and the new shape of capitalism, and perhaps even on how to overcome it. In this situation, the Institute for Social
Analysis of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation published a collective paper in 2011 with possible future scenarios in order to better intervene politically. Four scenarios were distinguished: 1. an intensified authoritarian neoliberalism, 2. the project of the "New Right", 3. a green capitalism and 4. a (Social) Green New Deal (IfG 2011). Eight years later the question arises as to how accurate these predictions were. Has a new type of capitalism already emerged? Or are we still in a transitional phase? Which scenarios describe the world of tomorrow today?
Dimensions of a crisis society
The analysis of 2011 has predicted the major lines of conflict quite accurately. But it could not foresee how robustly the ruling classes would be able to continue their course. The austerity policy and its consequences occurred regionally at different times. Neither movements nor left parties were able to internationalize their resistance or combine it with effective industrial struggles. The defeat of Syriza in Greece in 2015 and the relative weakness (Spain) or isolation (Portugal) of leftist projects in southern Europe continue to have an impact today. Without these defeats of the left, the subsequent triumph of the right cannot be understood. In view of the untenable conditions, the right draws its strength from a social experience of powerlessness: radical alternatives are absolutely necessary, but their implementation has failed for the time being.
However, the crisis is not over with the temporary victory of authoritarian neoliberalism. It remains virulent and continues to articulate itself as a multiple crisis with the dimensions mentioned above. For the time being it has been postponed into the future. The central reform project of the left wing of the ruling class was "green capitalism". Its aim was to stimulate the development of "green" technologies with economic stimulus packages, to create new markets and a growth spurt. The project failed, however. Paradoxically, for reforms from above, capitalism is dependent on radical forces from below, which can be used and co-opted for modernization. Accordingly, the dominant Western nation-states moved to a policy of austerity, which gave them and their corporations advantages, lowered wages and weakened the power of trade union action. The crisis policy thus deepened neoliberalism and thus the asymmetry of power between capital and labor.
The neo-liberal "centre" parties in the EU, however, thus got caught in a vicious circle: the more unpopular the cuts and the greater the protest, the more authoritarian the states had to act, violate existing law and, for example, restrict the right to demonstrate. The more their own resources of power dwindled with the erosion of the "people's parties" and the rise of right-wing and left-wing forces, the more the ruling powers entrenched their policies in a new European economic government with hardly any democratic legitimacy, the more their coercive character became apparent, further weakening the ruling parties.
In Germany, the so-called refugee crisis in summer 2015 acted as a catalyst for the rise of the right. Since 2016, Trump's electoral victory, right-wing brexite and the Austrian presidential election had shown that the far right can now win majorities. Even where it is
not yet involved in state power, the formula "right-wing works" applies: The forces on the far right drive the others before them. With the failure of both left-wing concepts and "green capitalism", many no longer see a real (actual) alternative to neoliberalism. Only in political systems with majority voting rights does it look different: There there is hope to renew the flaccid center-left parties from within, either in real terms (like Jeremy Corbyn) or potentially (like Bernie Sanders).
In the other case there is a dangerous polarization: the entire party spectrum beyond the "neo-socialist" left sees no alternative to market-driven social development. The left wing of the bourgeoisie (in Germany: the Greens) agrees with the far right (AfD). This shifts the discourse to the level of the Kulturkampf. The debate is primarily about the question of how (il-)liberal immigration, security or gender policy is to be shaped. But because the material crisis processes in class society continue to have an effect and deepen the fears of the population, all left alternatives to the market society threaten to be crushed in this culture war. The left-liberal bourgeoisie and the right-wing authoritarians can distinguish themselves against each other and bind their respective socially and culturally relatively homogeneous clientele. Meanwhile, social democratic and left-wing parties are disintegrating over the question of how to win back "working class" voters.
The crisis of democracy is aggravated by the digitalization and upheavals of the mode of production. "Industry 4.0" and "Internet of Things" embody a rationalization process driven by capital. The objective stress of seeing one's own qualifications devalued and having to relearn permanently is generalizing and hitting even highly qualified wage earners. The old securities of the "middle classes" are dwindling, the promise of sharing in prosperity through performance has lost its persuasive power. The radical restructuring of the welfare state is increasing experiences of insecurity and declassification. The dream of living in the "saturated middle class" with their own homes, exotic holiday destinations and retirement provisions is becoming precarious. At the same time, with the change in gender relations, the Fordist family model is also in a state of upheaval.
Another foil for the right-wing culture war, which wants the "good old days" back. Under neo-liberal conditions, the integration of women into the labor market has not brought the promised self-determination for all, but has deepened social inequality between women. Due to the gaps in public services of general interest, care work is still mostly the responsibility of women, and is mostly privately and precariously organized. Stress and excessive demands characterize the everyday life of many people.
Authoritarian neoliberalism has no answer to this crisis of the wage-dependent "middle classes". On the contrary, with policies that reduce pensions and wages, cut social benefits and exacerbate insecurity in the labor market, cohesion is crumbling. People are being told that they are on their own. The state only seems sovereign in the field of the Kulturkampf, but not in economic and social planning. This also applies to the accelerating ecological crisis, which is increasingly becoming a crisis of civilization. It fundamentally questions the paradigm of a market society and requires radical economic policy measures. With the new climate movements, the sense of urgency has entered the public consciousness and increases the feeling of threat and fear. However, even this debate often remains on the terrain of a culture war, with a green-liberal and a
conservative-right camp facing each other. Left-wing alternatives to market-based approaches to solutions remain marginal in the political discourse, with the neoliberal "Keep it up" dominating.
Indeed, in this situation, state actors would have to develop a vision for dealing with these upheavals in which social participation and cohesion are central. However, politicians are no longer believed capable of doing this: the popular parties are eroding inexorably and the visions of the future are being formulated by corporations such as Tesla, Google and Facebook. The visionlessness of the ruling classes is water on the mills of the right. If no one formulates a policy for all anymore, this leaves a vacuum that fills the right, which at least claims to represent popular sovereignty, in a folkish way.
These processes of upheaval stand in the context of a crisis of the global world order and a new threat of war. While the USA is losing relative influence, China is the undisputed world market leader in many areas of high technology and can shape its development sovereignly through state control over the economic and financial sector. Historically, such a replacement of an old world power by a new one has always been associated with wars. Even today, rivalry is leading to a global arms race. Parts of the US military apparatus are systematically preparing for a major war against China in the coming decades. In addition, the number of proxy wars has increased sharply worldwide, partly due to the global economic distortions of austerity policy. The states of the North are trying to overcome their crises by increasing exports, which puts further pressure on their competitors in the global South. With the financial crisis, mass unemployment and public debt crises have increased worldwide. The scope for redistribution is limited. These policies increase distribution conflicts and the risk of sectarian and ethnicization.
Development scenarios
The main beneficiary of austerity policies and global "beggar-thy-neighbor" capitalism is transnationalized capital. In the name of competitiveness, a large number of states have lowered top tax rates, deregulated labor markets and valoried non-capitalist spaces. New right-wing foreign governments have often been in charge, for example in the USA, Brazil, India, Austria or Hungary. This shows that radical right-wing governments are not pursuing an alternative project, but are pushing pro-capitalist policies and their contradictions. In the process, the authoritarian neoliberalism of the "middle" amalgamates with the authoritarian right: "Only" those parts of the right-wing electoral program are implemented which do not affect the interests of (transnational) capital, such as a further intensification of repressive security policies. The "national-socialist" and "anti-establishment" demands, on the other hand, are turned into their opposite. In Austria, for example, the FPÖ demanded a referendum on EU and Euro membership. It entered the government in 2017 with a profession of loyalty to both. In return, it was given the Ministry of the Interior and was able to take particularly strong action against left-wingers and Muslim immigrants.
For the future it will be decisive whether this contradiction between right-wing propaganda and right-wing Realpolitik will lead to a weakening of the right. What will be
decisive will be, on the one hand, to drive a wedge between the party cadres and their proletarian base and, on the other hand, to alienate the protest electorate from supporters with a closed right-wing extremist world view. The future depends on how the different dimensions of the multiple crisis develop, each of which has the potential to escalate dramatically. The interactions are not predictable. Nevertheless, five scenarios seem conceivable:
1 // Authoritarian capitalism: The tendencies of "muddling through" and ad hoc firefighting actions continue globally under the conditions of a rigid market-driven development of society. In this scenario, the rise of right-wing authoritarian nationalism continues unchecked because it cannot be contained by short-term tactics, corruption scandals or even party bans, but only by a comprehensive socio-ecological social project that takes "everyone" along with it. Despite its political weakness, however, the neoliberal bloc continues to rely on its power, which is rooted in the transnationalization of capitalist relations of production and class.
On this basis, it incorporates the radical right, as in Austria. This cannot enforce a return to economic nationalism, as the domestically oriented and globally uncompetitive capital factions would prefer. However, in so far as the Right can still rely on fossil capital, the ideological struggle over the climate question will come to a head.
This first scenario would be tantamount to increasing barbarization. The US-China conflict will intensify. The pressure on the "West" to dissuade China from "competitiondistorting" state interventionism through primarily military means of coercion and to subordinate itself to the Western-dominated world economic order will increase. The continuation of market-driven development and the promotion of export orientation and free trade agreements with the global South (Compact with Africa, Economic Partnership Agreements, EU Mercosur Agreement, etc.) will intensify the causes of conflict and thus of flight, which in turn will provide the right with a constant potential for mobilization. The number of deaths in the Mediterranean is increasing dramatically and the Right is making the "securing" of the EU border regime the task of sovereign politics. At the same time, it is it that exacerbates the internal contradictions of globalized capitalism. Its rightwing authoritarian nationalism, however, never fights its causes, but always only the symptoms: it is directed against fugitives and migrant workers, but never against free trade, which produces millions of proletarian small farmers, war and flight, and just as little against climate change as a cause of flight. Moreover, with his anti-Muslim racism he provokes the very ethnic polarization he takes as his starting point. He is thus a kind of reactionary Don Quixote. Paradoxically, neoliberal participation in government does not weaken the radical right as long as there are no realistic left alternatives. It further polarizes society and promotes conditions of a cultural civil war internally and - with the escalation of the climate crisis - a world civil war.
2 // Uncoordinated disintegration of globalized capitalism: In this scenario, projects of nationalism develop, but unlike in the 1930s without dominant "national bourgeoisies". The multilateral institutions are further weakened by bilateral state action, especially on the part of Trump. International tensions increase. The institutional foundations for a new
edition of coordinated crisis Keynesianism are eroding. Nationalist ideology increasingly serves as a means of extra-territorializing internal contradictions: it is not capitalist accumulation in general and the policy of internal devaluation in particular that is then to blame for stagnating real wages and falling wage ratios, but the "unfair" trading practices of foreign competition. Selective protectionism, which is supposed to enforce easier market access and robust intellectual property rights, takes on a life of its own: the difficulty in planning entrepreneurial action and the fragmentation and rising costs of globalized supply chains lead to a partial regression of transnationalization. This has so far acted as a containment structure against political nationalism. However, the transnational factions in the power bloc can no longer compensate for their increasing political defenselessness against right-wing authoritarian nationalism. The latter is now also changing the basic structures of global capitalism - in a dominance of the logic of the political - and is provoking economic upheavals with corresponding social consequences. This leads to a renaissance of the autarky ideology of the 1930s.
With this intensification of inter-imperialist competition, climate justice falls completely under the wheels. "National solo efforts" in emissions policy become a competitive disadvantage. In countries dependent on energy imports, there is a renaissance of national coal production, dangerous offshore oil drilling and other forms of extreme extractivism. The climate crisis is getting completely out of control. The intensification of the interimperialist competition for raw materials and sales markets in turn leads to an increase in threatening military gestures and incidents with escalation potential. In view of the weakness of the left, the sudden unwinding of globalization is not taking place in the global South as progressive South-South cooperation, but as a relatively chaotic process in which foreign direct investment and exports are being restricted and internal conflicts are intensifying. This increases the number of disintegrating states.
Flight movements as a result of wars, economic and climate crises continue to increase. Individual nations are joining forces militarily in "coalitions of the willing" and sealing themselves off against the consequences of regional violent conflicts. Gated capitalism with islands of prosperity in a sea of chaos is becoming an increasingly open policy goal in the name of protecting "our Western way of life": ruthless isolation and the restriction of universal human rights are becoming the guiding principles of policy. At the same time, the crisis in the transatlantic alliance leads to the military mobilization of a weakened core EU or individual EU states. Incidents on the fringes of the US Empire, especially in the Western Pacific, in the now ice-free, resource-rich Arctic, in space and in proxy conflicts make a large-scale war between the US and China increasingly plausible. The nationalistic social climate, the emotional blunting of human suffering and a de-civilization both internally and externally create acceptance for the inevitability of such a war. Humanity may sink into absolute barbarism.
3 // Green-authoritarian capitalism: The cracks in the camp of the rulers of the "West" are widening and run along the question of how to counter the rise of China and its active industrial policy and green-technological dominance. Demands for an end to austerity policies are becoming ever louder. By means of national industrial policy, an attempt is being made to re-establish "Deutschland AG". In the name of competitiveness, however,
neoliberal labor market and social policies are being continued. The green industrial policy counter offensives of the "West" can partially mitigate the forced rivalry with China. Meanwhile, the costs of the climate crisis are being passed on downwards, especially through regressive taxes on meat consumption or CO2 consumption, entirely in the spirit of green consumer sovereignty. As the crisis tendencies intensify over the decade - in particular the climate crisis, but also the flight movements that continue as in the second scenario - green capitalism becomes increasingly authoritarian. Authoritarianism is directed both against increasing right-wing protest against climate policy and against left-wing protests by the lower classes.
4 // Global Green New Deal: In many places, a unifying left-wing policy disenchants right-wing authoritarian nationalism in power and splits it along class lines. The ideology critique that has so far been formulated from the right is combined with a clever, overarching class policy and the vision of a Social Green New Deal. This policy is universalist in language, but in an anti-racist and feminist sense it favors the most oppressed groups in society. Minimum wage increases, a re-municipalization and strengthening of public housing, a progressive mobility policy, reductions in working hours and expansion of the care infrastructure are at the core of this new "policy for all". It invalidates the right-wing distortion that left-wing (anti-discrimination) policies only protect certain groups such as refugees, women, sexual minorities or disabled people from the merciless laws of the market to which all others are also subject.
The new class-based movements, which have been directed against the excesses of austerity and authoritarianism from Chile to Haiti and Lebanon since autumn 2019, are consolidating and globalizing. They repoliticize economic policy and issues of global wealth inequality. Thus the social line of conflict is shifting more strongly again towards the question of distribution, which is becoming dramatically more acute as a result of renewed economic crises. Mid-bottom alliances are forming in central areas of conflict in class society. In the tenant country Germany it is especially the housing question. Here, campaigns and alliances are pushing the boundaries of the possible: Demands for expropriation deepen and open up completely new horizons. This - despite everythinggives rise to hopes for improved living conditions for all and optimism about the future, which weakens the pessimistic discourses of exclusion on the right in the long term. The unthinkable becomes conceivable again.
Against the background of the strengthening movements from below, there are shifts to the left in the nation states, which are becoming more international and mutually reinforcing. Under these conditions, the green-liberal wing of the bourgeoisie becomes radicalized and moves to the left. In a corporate liberalism, it seeks to take up the demands from below, soften them and combine them with an ecological reform policy. The green bourgeoisie becomes a leading force with left-wing participation. Under the banner of a Green New Deal, a social reform alliance of socio-ecological reconstruction is created.
The new political horizon facilitates reform projects with a utopian surplus. A new era of great social reform and democratization is dawning. Against the background of growing social movements in the global South, the international system and development policy
are also changing. Similar to the 1970s, development policy is now under the paradigms of climate justice, disarmament and cooperation. The Green New Deal is being globalized and, in the spirit of a new internationalism, effective institutions are being created to deal with the climate crisis. The rise of China is taking place in a gentle way within the framework of these institutions, which reflect the new balance of power in the world system. China is playing an increasingly important role in the transfer of technology. Regional integration efforts in the global South are increasingly geared to the needs of society as a whole. Individual groups of countries are successfully striving for a decoupling (delinking), a partial deglobalization, due to the growing international freedoms. Concepts of reagrarization and regional economic cycles are being used to address the social crises, particularly in Africa.
The radical anti-capitalist left plays a decisive, but ultimately subordinate role in this scenario. It participates in government power, but does not lead. It de-radicalizes: massive redistribution and regulation become decisive levels of crisis management. The reduction of emissions and of social inequality is achieved by means of an active industrial, structural and public employment policy. There are re-municipalizations as well as a decommodification and democratisation of the world of work, but private control over the means of production is not touched. Accordingly, the reduction of social inequality and the reduction of environmentally harmful emissions will fall short of the targets. Climate change is progressing and its effects are being negotiated in public discourse. Class society has become more permeable, but living conditions from education to housing continue to be marked by inequality. However, the starting position of the left-wing labor movement for the inevitable class struggles has improved. The trade unions' organizing, market and production power is high. But the institutionalization of left conflict-oriented politics has also produced a new state-fixed technocratism, a new left-wing state class that has a demobilizing effect. Similar to the 1970s, the reforms put pressure on the profitability of capital and herald the next organic crisis.
5 // Green socialism: The fifth scenario develops similarly to the fourth, but takes place under the leadership of the anti-capitalist left. The movement starts out from industrial nations with corresponding economic and political leeway and explicitly formulates a revolutionaryrealpolitical "transitional program". The goal of a social-ecological transformation is based on the restructuring of the state and permanent democratization. Various forms of socialization play a role here, establishing new forms of ownership as a structural counter-power to capital. The control of the banking system, possibly through a new financial crisis and "bank bail-outs", becomes a lever for social-ecological investment control. In addition, new economic-democratic structures are being established in transnational corporations. An alliance of neo-socialist states multilaterally pushes the transformation towards a democratically planned green industrial policy. It organizes internationalism based on solidarity with non-market exchange structures, for example for consumer goods and technological knowledge. The goal of this green socialism is the sustainable and comprehensive overcoming of multiple crises, whereby social control of the means of production is the key. Production and lifestyles are being transformed quickly, radically and consciously. The climate crisis has undoubtedly caused great destruction. The horror of the destructive power of 250 years of bourgeois-capitalist society is great and is reflected in public life, science, art and culture. But containing the climate crisis is now a realistic goal. Humanity survives and so does humanity.