InsideOut Scenarios 2035
Marie Van Puyenbroeck B1Ei AMFI 2016-2017 Scenario Writing
Table of Content 4.
Introduction
14.
scenario 2
5.
Scenario drivers
16.
conclusions
21.
Sources
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6.
Scenario 1
18.self evaluation
Introduction The world is facing increased turmoil caused by leadership change in new markets, important policy shifts by governments, new social-economical systems, demographical changes and technological shifts. People therefore ask themselves how this explosive socio-economic environment will affect their lives. Clairvoyants do not exist, but there is the possibility to describe possible realistic and foreseeable futures we take into account in today’s decision making. That is why we make scenarios. Herein we anticipate how the new and the next might impact the way we live tomorrow. Possible changes are being mapped out within a political, economic, social, cultural and environmental framework. The emphasis isn’t on what will happen, but on what might happen, given various drivers. It’s a way of getting new perspectives and context for present-day issues and decisions. Without a sense of what’s next, a vision, our efforts to deal with today’s problems will leave us vulnerable. We need to prepare ourselves in today’s actions to ensure the future survival and health of the organisation.Scenarios are at interest for any organisation aiming long-term, ever-growing existence and relevance in the future such as governments, brands, industrial sectors or markets, NPO’s, schools, clubs, charities, … This scenario-paper is a way to create a world of insight and to test if our brand InsideOut will still be effective tomorrow or how we must change it to be effective in the changing future. We take two different uncertainties into account. “Will current world leaders be able to continue working together & with new partners to reinvent the international system?” and “How big of an influence will technological developments have?”. These result in drivers, presented in a graph, shaping 4 possible and different worlds. Such uncertainties will have huge influences: Government and politics direct and affects everything and technology will soon too. We wrote one scenario out in full, that extricate politic and economic situations first with followed by their influence on social, demographic, technological changed situations. Finally we discuss the world of fashion. The second scenario is described in bullet points. At the end, we have made a conclusion for each scenario regarding our brand InsideOut.
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scenario Drivers Driver 1:
Will current world leaders be able to continue working together & with new partners to reinvent the international system?
Driver 2:
How big of an influence will technological developments have?
Reinvented Globalisation
Scenario 1 Technological takeover Technological support
Scenario 2
Fragmented World
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Scenario 1 Reinvented globalism 2.0 backed by Technological Innovation and support Automation, climate change, population growth, ageing population and technology advancements are affecting society and they bring profound changes over the next 20 years. Reinvented globalism takes a run and an overall authority with new joined forces (The Big Five) is founded to tackle down these worldwide problems. Sharing economy dominates with a focus on democratizing access to important services. This increases world’s connectivity even more. Technology continues to transform our lives and economics, creating new opportunities but people remain in control. While technology infiltrates, communities not only change by new types of cities and housing but also by the rise of new classes and possibilities in the creation of life. Innovations in the eco-sector harmonise with the worlds’ available resources and the fashion world drops smart clothing and ecochips, qualifying the industry as slower and sustainable.
Global Politics & Economics
The period of the refuge into nationalism - where leaders were retracing their steps back to the place they once felt safe and secure (e.g. Trump’s effort to make America great again or Putin trying to reinstall the tsarist empire) – proved not to work. The world has turned back into a reinvented global system. Only a reinvented global governance settles worldwide issues. (Frijs-Madsen Jarl, Scenario, 2016) Political leaders and systems collaborate. Together they tackle down problems like climate change, technological disruption, terrorism and economic recess. In the past, institutions as UN, IMF, Nato and the European Union came close to such global governance. Today, the reinvented international system is guided by Global Pax 2.0, leading the big 5 (China, India, US, EU and Brasil). The sharing economy in which consumers connect with service providers like Internet applications instead of relying on traditional providers—is in further development further. Besides Etsy, AirBnb, Uber, other sharing initiatives pop up. Sharing-economy companies play in new markets (Marshall Patrick, 2016). Platforms are used for sharing heavy equipment (MultiRent) or musicians (GearLode) share and contribute to each other’s’ songs which often result in flexible bands. Information like databases, services, specialized skills and workforces can be shared too. The economy focuses on sharing economy to democratize access to important services like mobility, health service especially because of the ageing population. Therefore, governmental institutions set up a lot of new rules to serve the common good and protect the public from externalities. (Marshall Patrick, 2016) Technology sustains this economical and global system to make things easier: internet, smartphones, cloudware, (brain) chips allow transactions (triggering all our senses including scents) to take place around the block or around the globe. (Marshall Patrick, 2016). The global government regulates this phenomenon as service providers in sharingeconomy are independent contractors motivated by financial gain.
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Society, demographics, technology and ecology
Technology is developing fast and is part of every production system. Mankind stays more important because they must manage automation (Harari Yuval Noah, Scenario, 2017) (Bædkel Anne Dencker e.a., Scenario March 2017). Global connectivity on the web 3.0 increases further globalization, new high speed trains are connecting people and countries in the world (Algermissen Konrad, The Monocle Forecast 2017), elimination of language barriers is possible because of simultaneous machine interpretation. This stimulates growing wealth in upcoming societies. The Precariat is on the rise (Courtney Nichola, Scenario 2016); a group of vulnerable workers struggle to find meaningful and consistent work in opposite of the Elites and Salariats who are living in wealth. Even though technology supports our way of living and has created new jobs, too many jobs have disappeared (Bædkel Anne Dencker e.a., Scenario March 2017). The lack of ongoing employment creates a life of no occupational identity for the precariat. They undertake hours of free labour, hoping for stability in their career. Internships are being applied for but neglected due to over-qualification, they attend networking events, retrain or volunteer. These precarious working conditions forces the precariat to be entrepreneurial or to define themselves as ‘self-employed’. The flexible precariat ventures online to add up to their income and fights inequality. It enables micro-work, crowd working and entrepreneurship that pays the bills. Technology and the sharing economy means precariats will survive the collaborative economy. The growing global population and climate refugees create a housing crisis. Cities face sky-high renting prices and homeless rates. Impermanent architecture (Lindeburg Emelie, Scenario 2017) is the characteristic of today’s cityscape. Buildings are adaptable to the needs of the times thanks to advances in technology: prefabricated homes, lowkey constructions with good living environments, half-housing concepts. (Bradley Kimberly, The Monocle Forecast 2017) Advantages of technology bring along unlimited motherhood. Achievements in fertilizing eggs makes the menopause no longer a blockade. (Brown Kyle, e.a., Scenario 2017). Oral contraception, rising housing prices, the cost of childcare, labour market uncertainty for precariats determine the decision of delayed motherhood. 9 -
Life expectancy has increased and movement towards a better health makes them wait longer to start their offspring. This means a reverse in declined birth rate. Therefore, the government steps in, prolonging the two-child policy in Europe and voting new legislations for children’s rights. Governmental and non-governmental organisations introduce an upper age limit for parents to reassure at least one healthy vibrant parent. With the whole world ageing, the government makes sure financial advantages are available in organizing co-housing (Wilson, Fiona, The Monocle Forecast 2017). They set up a greater range of possibilities for organisations who take care of elderly at their own homes and gain profit from and experience in including elderly in political parties. Age-Friendly Cities are the new urban models (Wilson Fiona, The Monocle Forecast 2017); cities invest in keeping elderly healthy and active rather than isolating them. New public transport systems are designed with barrier free platforms, door-to-door transport in automated driven busses and cars are provided. This lifestyle reduces expensive medical care. Independent Living Centres are booming, improving elderly’s their physique and social life. Successful Ageing Commissions advises government on policies for its older population and the National Silver Academy is founded for ageing students who are eager to work or study. But when in need of medical health care, microscopic robots get inserted in the bloodstream, releasing medicine by the brain’s neurotransmitters. (Scenario, 2017 via New Scientist). To stop disruption of the climate change, global government manifests regulations on natural sources like wind, water and sun as the most important energy source. They put severe taxes on the use of pollutional energy sources as gasoline and oil. Vertical farming tackles down climate change’s effect like land shortages or population density in the city. It takes place in an enclosed environment, independently from the outside climate. Aquaponics are combined with vertical farming; fish and plants are positioned next to each other while the water circulates. The fish produce waist the plants filter out as nutrients. Hereby the water can be reused by the fish. The closed loop limits the use of water and surface. Hence, pesticides and herbicides are unnecessary. (Christiaens Tom, De Morgen 201). Smog free installations colour the cityscapes (Studio Roosegaarde, 2017). Clean Air For Everyone has worldwide support. Smog vacuum cleaners are incorporated in the world sucking up pollution, cleaning and releasing air into… the air, for free. The filter installations run on green energy. Governments, students and clean-tech industries work together towards a cleaner future. Asia is the first with these innovations.
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Fashion
The global fashion industry has a lot of issues to deal with: shortage of resources, climate change, demographic change, new technologies, and shifts in the global economy. The sustainable fashion industry implements technology as one way to protect the environment and the lives of customers, workers and suppliers around the world. Clothing get smarter; it transmits a degree of information. Tags on garments are obligated to tell customers where every part of it was made to make them aware. Smart clothes with built-in-monitors protect their wearers against diseases and enhance their health. A very important aspect taking the ageing population into account. Pharmaceutical companies work together with the fashion industry. (Edelkoort Lidewij) High energy prices make clothes that creates their own energy very popular – solar cells are fitted onto jackets to power electronic devices. An Ecochip (de Volder Wies, 2016) is introduced in people’s credit cards to stimulate the consumer handing in old clothes when they buy new ones. As an attack on mass consumption, the card has limits determined by the government. When exceeded, a tax is levied to maintain the consumers’ awareness regarding the environment. The emphasis is on slow fashion and individualized products. Therefore, technology keeps a database with every clothing related detail. Art laser scanners takes measures of the customer and new pieces of clothing is projected on the body through augmented reality. Also, fabrics will be made of raw materials and organic natural fibres. Climate change refugees bring in their knowledge and transfer fashion influences across the world. Finally, even though there’s a difference in age, the barriers and gaps between generations are disappearing. This results in older people adopting the style of younger generations. On the other hand, the youth is more dressed like grownups.
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Scenario 2 Fragmented Reality rolling into the 4th industrial revolution • Anti-globalisation accelerates. The world is divided into several spheres of influence: America, China (Asia), extra nations on the rise like Poland, the Visegrad Group, Turkey, Brazil, Russia on revival (Scenario 2017) (The Monocle Forecast, 2017) • Post-Factual Society and post-truth politics (Schjørring Esben, Scenario 2017) • Protectionism: Increasing numbers of protectionist measures -> Euro falls. Unemployment crises due to total automation (Frijs-Madsen Jarl, Scenario, 2016) • Limitations on access to the internet • Homo Deus: Japan/ Asia leading country in creating and co-existing with human robots (having emotions and algorithms (Artificial Intelligence) (van Hattum Rob, Tegenlicht, 2016) (Homo Deus interview met Harari, Scenario 2017) • Privacy is a quaint obsession with nano-technology surpassing human intelligence (Alderman Naomi, The Guardian, 2016) • Neuroscience (Alderman Naomi, The Guardian, 2016) • Homedulgence: staying in is the new going out (The Trend Forecaster’s Handbook) • Automation in Low Wage Countries blocks their economies from boosting like China and India have experienced. (Scenario 2017) • Impermanent architecture for climate refugees -> speed-constructions thanks to automation (The Monocle Forecast, 2017) • Artificial Intelligence keep the elderly mobile and connected but limits them to stay physically and mentally healthy and active. • Polarisation gives countries monopoly on resources like fossil fuels and even green energy • No global pact regarding climate change, some deny, other manifest for local initiatives to reduce climate change • Local & unique innovative technological production for developed countries • Low risks for factoryworkers when working with robotic productions • Clothes are being printed, no fabric gets wasted; positive impact on the environment • Collections are worked out digitally (MiraLab, Virtual Fashion, TBB Fashion A): people can experience collections first in Tactile Reality. • Ecochip • Smart Clothing enhancing your lifestyle
ConclusionS Scenario 1
Reinvented globalism 2.0 backed by Technological Innovation and support With the world ageing and growing in population new market opportunities have arrived. My brand InsideOut is relevant by being one of the first to see and jump on the opportunities this target group, The Ageless Youngsters, offers. Living in a reconnected world, new inspirations and innovations derive from all corners of the globe.The sharing economy is of big importance. Though my tribe worked long and hard (and some still are), much money to spend on clothing isn’t always a given. Many of them belong to the Precariat class and also rising costs in housing and having children on a later age doesn’t always prioritize fashion. Can only the rich afford new and sustainable materials from brands? On the other hand, the Eco-chip in combination with few money to spend doesn’t encourage purchases either. This could mean the Ageless Youngsters will be even more creative themselves and look at vintage markets. By bridging gaps between generations, more style, shape, and silhouette options are possible to express my target group’s vitality. Their vitality is noticeable in their eager to make a change in climate change. With governmental investments in keeping the elderly active, this creates opportunities to join in their plans. The Ageless Youngsters are more familiar with technology and internet devices, which opens up a new possibility for communicating, bonding or even collaborating. Lifestyle and values of rising foreign countries are of huge influence. They are worth studying, analysing and implementing them into western culture. By prolonging our values with theirs on the other side of the world, we can create a new community, bring people together, find new vital ways to live to keep the elderly active and social. With this opportunity, we create a strong story. The brand should not only be focused on production of clothing, especially not in a sharing economy. Providing special services is priority: make shopping and dressing up a joined experience of entertainment, joy and come together. Be flexible in your policy. This is perfectly in line with the government’s plan to keep the elderly healthy and active. This sharing economy approach would also ‘solve’ money issues. If we provide services where not only clothing needs to be bought, we could survive within this environment. Sharing is caring and even though their styling is about expressing individual vital feelings, this vitality can be transmitted in a renewed swap and switch system. That would turn the Ageless Youngsters into ambassadors for my brand. Collaborations with Age-Friendly sports brands is a recommendation to live life in a comfortable ànd expressive way.
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Since the brand is about celebrating every day that arrives, climate change and sustainability are hot topics for my target group. Collaborations with pharmacies in development should be continued and innovated to meet these needs. Solar cell clothing was one success but more is required within a limited budget. We, my brand and the Ageless Youngsters embrace positive changes in the future. Though some actions will be expensive but are important for long-term benefits of society.
Scenario 2
Fragmented Reality rolling into the 4th Industrial revoltuion World’s fragmentation pushes back the global reach and access to several parts of society. With local productions and concepts, only a niche market can make the brand survive. This may involve a revision of branding InsideOut’s position and mission. The economic crisis bombs the fashion industry; either no one is any longer interested in buying or they all want to hid the crisis by dressing up. The polarisation limits internet services. Hence InsideOut could not always profit from the advantages of current technology to reach out to our tribe. This limitation blocks building a community and prevent them from bonding. Therefore local production and positioning in niche market is what brings along the survival of InsideOut. We are precarious with humanised robots, but possibilities are offered. Either the robots get the elderly out of the house or they bring the store to those living at home. InsideOut should play with this in a disruptive way. Robots could simplify the shopping experience. Homedulgence as called this phenomenon is for my brand InsideOut a plus. SmartClothing enhancing the elderly’s health is a concept my brand needs to work with in an innovative way. A disadvantage of total automation can be pointed out in the diminishing of the creative process. 3D-clothing simply will be printed as standard clothes. Nothing individual can be added. This is a threat for my brand InsideOut, that deals with personal and individual feelings translating into style. Governments therefore need to invent applicable ways to ‘live’ with robots and machines. A revision of my brand could provide an insight. The world is stepping back into the past, this inspires the brand for production approach: going back to and reinvent craftsmanship, is something my brand could work with to guarantee quality, take in a unique position in the (niche)market at that time, evokes emotion within the target group. Hence a treat is turned into a strength, a unique selling point and possibility to work with and making my brand survive in this automated world.
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Self evaluation Orientation and Research
Diverse sources like Monocle, Scenario, Ted x, The Trend Forecaster’s Handbook, online newspapers and others are used. Maybe all are not relevant for the brand but it helped me to write this scenario. Using these qualitative sources provided me with in depth opinions and research. All DESTEP areas are researched and covered in the scenario
Drivers are relevant uncertainties since they are based on knowledge and research of today’s world and research towards the future. Because my drivers derive from 2 totally different destep areas, when being combined 4 different worlds can be created. I don’t think my driving forces are that original because I tried that at first. My first try out blocked me in creating 4 different worlds. So, after talking to students and the lecturer, I got the advice to start off broadly and be original in the examples. So I did.
Actualisation
Decision-making
After a lot of research, I mapping out my findings, categorized in every DESTEP area and finally turning them into uncertainties. This approach gave me a broad overview in the positioning matrix (process book) followed by the final driver matrix. All this as foundation made me create an integrated story. I do think the content is relevant but maybe not coherent on every level. I think some issues aren’t thought through enough or not everything is taken into consideration. The subject of ecology could’ve been stronger and more relevant. But on the other hand the examples are concrete and plausible. The content is plausible but yet some creative insights and ideas into the scenario for 2035 could’ve been add, but these would be more details I think. I tried to picture myself as being the brand in the future while writing conclusions for my brand. Maybe all together they are quite ambitious but I think dreaming big sometimes helps to stimulate the creativity needed to achieve your goals and survival in this world. 18 -
Correct but mostly basic English is used. I tried for someone to read the scenario afterwards and help me with the vocabulary to bring it to a more professional level. I think that helped. Images are included, the scenario lay out is in line with the Brand Book, it obviously derives from the same brand with the squares, colours and playful lines. Reference list can be found on the last page.
Self-evaluation
Presentation
Writing isn’t my strongest skill and about issues on global level is even harder for me. That’s why it took me a long time to write the first scenario. Though I know I had strong sources for research, my weakness in translating the information I find, thinking logically and turn that into a story. In my opinion I worked way too intense on it from time to time. I wrote more than the double amount of words required what forced me to delete a lot. I felt I struggle with narrowing things down, see the core and translate it into one frame as a whole. After a reflection with a teacher I noticed I have difficulties deciding what is important and what’s not. That’s why making choices takes a lot of time. I’ve let the powerpoints guide me in my work which helped a lot. It takes time for me in making choices. I think the world I shaped is plausible but maybe not cohesive enough even though I tried very hard to think about so many aspects in life. Maybe that made me think too far sometimes: like a scenario after a scenario.
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Sources Raymond, M., 2014, The Trend Forecaster’s Handbook. Laurence King Publishing Ltd, London. Bradley, K., 2017, Building Monumentum. The Monocle Forecast 2017, issue 05, p. 156-159. Wilson, F., 2017, Ageing Gracefully. The Monocle Forecast 2017, issue 05, p. 45-51. Algermissen, K., 2017, On The Move. The Monocle Forecast 2017, issue 05, p. 104 – 108. m.a., 2017, The Shape Of Things To Come. The Monocle Forecast 2017, issue 05, p. 36 – 42. m.a., 2017, Driving Forces. The Monocle Forecast 2017, issue 05, p. 77 – 82. USB House View x The Monocle Forecast, 2017, How can we tackle the challenges of 2017 and beyond? The Monocle Forecast 2017, issue 05. Lindeburg, E. – Skovgaard Petersen, C., La Cittá Nuova, Scenario, 01:2017, p. 70. Brown, K., e.a., Motherhood Unlimited, Scenario, 01:2017, p. 32-33. Baedkel, AD., e.a., Automation and the 4th industrial revolution, Scenario, 06:2016, p. 38-41. Courtney, N., The Rise Of The Precariat, Scenario, 06:2016, p. 46 – 47. z.n., Updates On Technology And Science, Scenario, 01:2017, p. 52. Mogensen, K., Weapons of Deconstruction For The Masses, Scenario, 01:2017, p. 51. z.n., Updates On Technology And Science, Scenario, 06:2016, p. 50. Paludan, JP., Reality – That Boring Place, Scenario, 01:2017, p. 48. Schjørring, E., Scenario, 01:2017, p.14 – 17. Frijs-Madsen, J., The End Of Globalisation?, Scenario, 06:2016, p. 32-35. O’Malley, JP., Homo Deus, an interview with Yuval Noah Harari, Scenario, 01:2017, p. 36-41. Alderman, N., 2016, 20 Predictions for the next 25 years. From: https://www.theguardian.com/ society/2011/jan/02/25-predictions-25-years (retrieved 20 May 2017). Van Hattum, R. 2016, De Robot Als Men. Interview, 10 mei. From: https://www.vpro.nl/ programmas/tegenlicht/kijk/afleveringen/2014-2015/de-robot-als-mens.html (retrieved 24 May 2017). Edelkoort, L., n.d., Anti-Fashion Manifesto. From: http://www.edelkoort.com/wp-content/ uploads/2015/09/manifest2.jpg (retrieved 23 May 2017). de Volder, W., 2016, Essay – Future of Fashion in 2035. From: http://weezy94.weebly.com/blog/ essay-future-of-fashion-in-2035 (retrieved 23 May 2017). Studio Roosegaarde From: https://www.studioroosegaarde.net (retrieved 6 May 2017). Christiaens, T., 2017, Zo Kweken We Binnenkort Onze Groenten. From: http://www.demorgen. be/economie/zo-kweken-we-binnenkort-onze-groenten-b4eb27b7/ (retrieved 6 May 2017). Marshall, P., 2016, The Sharing Economy, From: http://businessresearcher.sagepub.com/sbr1645-96738-2690068/20150803/the-sharing-economy (retrieved 7 May 2017). Marshall, P., 2016, The Sharing Economy, From: http://businessresearcher.sagepub.com/sbr1645-96738-2690156/20150803/niche-markets-offer-big-potential (retrieved 7 May 2017). Trendslator, From: http://trendslator.nl (retrieved 6 May 2017). Pwc, From: http://www.pwc.com (retrieved 7 May 2017). 21 -