Bust and Boom: An Investigation Into the Economic Euphoria Following Times of Isolation or Lockdown

William Sankey (B1 L6)

While the world remains in solitary confinement with normal life suspended, many are reminded of the Spanish Flu – a similar event that occurred just over a century ago. The 1918 Spanish Flu took 50 million lives and isolated millions of people for years - it was detrimental in both its threat to life, but also to the mental health of the millions of people barricaded within their homes or behind a face mask. Another infamous period of isolation from disease was during the Black Death. Even without any advanced medical knowledge, many of the inhabitants of Europe stayed at home and adopted facial appliances which had been introduced by doctors, in an effort to avoid contamination.

Although this correlation between disease and isolation and its immediate consequences is heavily scrutinised, another dynamic following these troubling times is often a surge in economic growth. This was the case, dating back all the way to ancient civilisations and sweeping through feudal Europe, mercantilist South America and the modern era. Economic euphoria has followed every type of social isolation, from the Black Death outbreaks over time to the conclusion of major conflicts, and in many ways this shows how humans as a species treat the ability to socialise normally as a necessity to life. From this standpoint, as we slowly recover from the trough of the COVID-19 pandemic, many experts have predicted the world will once again return to “one of the most hedonistic eras”1 as restrictions thaw and consumer, corporate and investor confidence is restored.

The era of the early 14th century was expected to witness the continuation development of medieval civilisation from the post-Roman abyss of the Dark Ages: a population explosion paired with early advancements in the commercial framework could have very easily led to an earlier birth of the Agricultural and Industrial revolutions, and the new administration of the Silk Road helped to enhance the West’s thirst for technology with new ties to Asia. However, alongside new Eastern trade, the Black Death also surfaced in European markets and eradicated more than 40% of Europeans - in fact, this population collapse would not recover for nearly a century, and any chance in collectively progressing past the age of the Western feudal system was heavily delayed until the mid-15th century, where European nations finally began ‘sequestering, or quarantining, strangers’2 and checking new ‘health passports’. The horrors of the Black Death (one of humanity’s greatest invitations to isolate) meant that when the first wave eventually died down in the winter of 1349 there was a sharp fall in labour, which meant that wages rose exponentially for the remaining serfs. Moreover, the smaller population allowed for greater consumer spending and the ability for European nations to officially interconnect with one another in technologies such as Gutenberg’s printing press and the Italian muzzle-loaded rifle. In fact, it is no coincidence that the Florentine Renaissance was born in the euphoric time after the Black Death; philosophers, artists and bankers alike cojoined their innovative ideas and reset the path of the West to finally challenge that of Asia and the Islamic caliphates. Without the obvious damage left by the plague itself, the Black Death in many ways was responsible for the resurgence of economic activity by the means that more were ‘drawn into the market economy and trade networks grew deeper and deeper’.3 People on average, were happier and general standards of work and life improved significantly.

If historians were to categorise the pairing of the Black Death and the economic Renaissance as coincidental, another key time of isolation disproved them in the early 20th century. As the world recuperated from a decade of its Great War, another catastrophic event in North America, Europe and South East Asia inflicted casualties as high as 50 million. However, with a seven century gap since the Black Death, medical professionalism had developed enormously, and common knowledge of viruses had shifted from a basis of ‘bad air’ to the real nature of the disease. With scientific proactivity, the world once again receded into a lockdown which was arguably harsher than the one that we face in 2021, and just as today, face masks were mandatory in public and social distancing had to be followed. In fact, to demonstrate how the Spanish Flu regulations were so strict, there were instances of unleashed violence between police and non-compliant citizens – an officer specialising in health fired his sidearm ‘following (Wissler’s) refusal to don an influenza mask’.4 In addition, any mass gatherings intended to defy the new laws were quickly and forcefully dispersed. Although these restrictions were incredibly tight and confining, the years following their cessation in 1920 were infamously branded as a decade of decadence, as the combined struggles of the war and a pandemic were overturned by a surge in jamborees and celebration; the economy in the ‘Roaring Twenties’ grew by 42% and new fashion, culture and industry enveloped the Western world. As mass consumerism boomed, the automotive, film and jazz industries concocted a new economic euphoria which, similar to the period after the Black Death, paved the way for more innovation and connectivity between countries in new fields of media and communications. Aside from the United States’ sudden return to isolationism in the 1920s, pacts such as the League of Nations cemented good relations with countries and further widened the prospect for collegiate opportunity.

With the prospect of a series of vaccines with high levels of efficacy and the possibility of a near conclusion to the Covid pandemic, it is possible, as witnessed in previous times, that there will be a new relationship between the passing period of isolation and a subsequent stimulation of both the economy and general morale of the population. Even on a smaller scale, after times of lockdown associated (for instance) with either natural disasters or warfare, the resulting period often sees the survivors eager to indulge. As was written in a recent edition of the Economist, periods following times of need left ‘survivors with an appetite to live… at speed.’5 From this, experts have predicted that in the next few years as life returns to normality, and following this historical trend, people will revert to an era of indulgence, accompanied with ‘sexual licentiousness (and) a reverse of religiosity’.6

Notes: 1 The Spirits Business, ‘Roaring 20s’ will return post-pandemic, analyst predicts (https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2020/12/roaring-20s-will-return-post-pandemic/) 2 Bryne, Joseph P., The Black Death (United States: Greenwood Publishing, 2004) p. 111. 3 Wyman, Patrick, After The Black Death, Europe’s Economy Surged (https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/after-the-black-death-europes-economy-surged-1821060986) 4 Price, Polly J., How a Fragmented Country Fights a Pandemic (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/how-fragmented-country-fights-pandemic/608284/) 5 The Economist, The year that everything changed (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/12/19/the-year-when-everything-changed) 6 Cope, Emily, Second ‘Roaring 20s’ likely to take place after the pandemic, predicts academic (https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/love-sex/pandemic-sex-parties-twenties-b1777493.html)