Bust and Boom: An Investigation Into the Economic Euphoria Following Times of Isolation or Lockdown William Sankey (B1 L6)
While the world remains in solitary confinement with normal life suspended, many are reminded of the Spanish Flu – a similar event that occurred just over a century ago. The 1918 Spanish Flu took 50 million lives and isolated millions of people for years - it was detrimental in both its threat to life, but also to the mental health of the millions of people barricaded within their homes or behind a face mask. Another infamous period of isolation from disease was during the Black Death. Even without any advanced medical knowledge, many of the inhabitants of Europe stayed at home and adopted facial appliances which had been introduced by doctors, in an effort to avoid contamination. Although this correlation between disease and isolation and its immediate consequences is heavily scrutinised, another dynamic following these troubling times is often a surge in economic growth. This was the case, dating back all the way to ancient civilisations and sweeping through feudal Europe, mercantilist South America and the modern era. Economic euphoria has followed every type of social isolation, from the Black Death outbreaks over time to the conclusion of major conflicts, and in many ways this shows how humans as a species treat the ability to socialise normally as a necessity to life. From this standpoint, as we slowly recover from the trough of the COVID-19 pandemic, many experts have predicted the world will once again return to “one of the most hedonistic eras”1 as restrictions thaw and consumer, corporate and investor confidence is restored. The era of the early 14th century was expected to witness the continuation development of medieval civilisation from the post-Roman abyss of the Dark Ages: a population explosion paired with early advancements in the commercial framework could have very easily led to an earlier birth of the Agricultural and Industrial revolutions, and the new administration of the Silk Road helped to enhance the West’s thirst for technology with new ties to Asia. However, alongside new Eastern trade, the Black Death also surfaced in European markets and eradicated more than 40% of Europeans - in fact, this population collapse would not recover for nearly a century, and any chance in collectively progressing past the age of the Western feudal system was heavily delayed until the mid-15th century, where European nations finally began ‘sequestering, or quarantining, strangers’2 and checking new ‘health passports’. The horrors of the Black Death (one of humanity’s greatest invitations to isolate) meant that when the first wave eventually died down in the winter of 1349 there was a sharp fall in labour, which meant that wages rose exponentially for the remaining serfs. Moreover, the smaller population allowed for greater consumer spending and the ability for European nations to officially interconnect with one another in technologies such as Gutenberg’s printing press and the Italian muzzle-loaded rifle. In fact, it is no coincidence that the Florentine Renaissance was born in the euphoric time after the Black Death; philosophers, artists and bankers alike cojoined their innovative ideas and reset the path of the West to finally challenge that of Asia and the Islamic caliphates. Without the obvious damage left by the plague itself, the Black Death in many ways was responsible for the resurgence of economic activity by the means that more were ‘drawn into the market economy and trade networks grew deeper and deeper’.3 People on average, were happier and general standards of work and life improved significantly. 59
