State of the US Online Retail Economy

MEASURING THE DIGITAL WORLD

State of the U.S. Online Retail Economy: Q3 2008 Gian Fulgoni Chairman comScore, Inc.

November 6, 2008

State of the Retail Economy Presented by Gian Fulgoni

Gian M. Fulgoni ■ Co-founder and Chairman of comScore, Inc. ■ Prior CEO of Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), a leading provider of information to the consumer packaged goods industry.

■ Recipient of numerous industry awards: The Chicago Area Entrepreneurship Hall of Fame, Twice Illinois Entrepreneur of the Year, the Wall Street Transcript Award, 2008 E&Y Entrepreneur of the Year.

■ Master’s degree in Marketing and a B.Sc. in Physics.

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Data sourced from comScore’s global panel of 2MM Internet users

360° ° View of Consumer Behavior

Web Visiting and Viewing

Analysis Parameters

Commerce on U.S. Sites Behavioral activity through September 2008

Demographics Life Stages

Online Transactions

Survey issued in October 2008, n = 1064 Consumer Measurements: •Visiting •Buying (incl. product categories) •Demographics •Attitudes •Search

Streaming Video

Search Behavior

Media Exposure

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Retailer Views: •Multi-Channel vs. Pure Play •Retailer Segments

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Consumer confidence plunged to an all-time low in October as the Wall Street credit crisis battered an already bruised economy.

"The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumers' confidence” -Lynn Franco, Director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center

“Any remaining shred of confidence consumers had in the U.S. economy was torched this month.”

-Kelly Evans, WSJ Blog

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Even Stone Crabs are Feeling the Pinch...

The 2008-09 stone crab season is set to open Wednesday, but a chaotic economy has many

80%

commercial fisherman concerned about demand for the

74%

Florida seafood delicacy.

67%

Fisherman are confident supplies will be good, but sales of the luxury cuisine are uncertain, said Gary Graves, vice president of Keys Fisheries, one of the largest processors of claws in the state. “We expect to have plenty of fresh crabs, but we don’t know how much people have to spend.”

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Under $50k

$50k-$99k

$100k+

Q: Are you cutting back on your spending due to concerns about the economy?

Source: comScore Survey October 2008

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Consumers faced much higher fuel and food prices in September of 2008 relative to the same period last year

Percent Change in Prices Versus Last Year – September of 2008 Source: U.S. Department of Labor

31.8%

6.0%

4.9%

Total

Motor Fuel (gas) Food & Beverages

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4.5%

Food Service

2.5% All Items Less Food & Energy

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Fuel prices have soared relative to last year

Percent Changes in Price versus Last Year Source: U.S. Department of Labor

40%

38%

36%

33%

35%

32%

30% 25%

21%

21%

20%

Motor Fuel (Gas)

15%

Food & Beverage

10% 5%

5%

5%

6%

6%

6%

Apr 08

May 08

June 08

July 08

Aug 08

Sep 08

5% 0%

Oil prices dropped by 22% per barrel from September to October, causing October gas prices to be 26% higher than in 2007 and promising some much needed boost to consumers’ spending power

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In 2008, inflation adjusted retail sales (incl. auto) have been below year ago levels

Year over Year Change in Retail Sales: Including Autos Jan

Feb Mar

Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

5%

Including Autos

3%

0%

-3%

-5%

Year over Year Change in Retail Sales: Excluding Autos Jan

Feb Mar

Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep

8% 5% 3% 0% -3% -5%

Source: U.S. Labor Department

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Validation of comScore sales data: comparison of comScore to U.S. Department of Commerce

45 40

Quarterly U.S. eCommerce Sales Estimates Source: comScore & Commerce Department

$Billions

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Q2 Q3 '01 '01 '01 '01 '02 '02 '02 '02 '03 '03 '03 '03 '04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '06 '06 '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 US Dept of Commerce

comScore

Q3 Government Data Not Available, Release Date: Nov 19th 2008

comScore Estimate = (Total Non-Travel – Event Tickets + Estimated Auction Fees) Excludes travel and event tickets, but includes auction fees and autos Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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Year-to-date (through Q3) e-commerce sales posted a 10% gain versus the same period last year

Online Consumer Dollar Sales Growth Excluding Auctions, Autos and Managed Travel ($Billions) Source: comScore

+17%

$200 +20% +22%

Travel

NonTravel

$40

$69

$117 $61

$93 $72

$77

$143

+26% +29%

$51

$42 2002

12%

$158

13%

$66

11%

$92

10%

20%

26%

33%

$30 $53

+10%

$171

26%

2003

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$66

2004

$82 26%

2005

$102

24%

$123

21%

24%

2006

2007

YTD 2008

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Sharper drop in Q3 2008 e-commerce growth than retail sales suggests offline spending is dragging down e-commerce Percent Sales Growth Source: U.S. Commerce Department

30% 25%

24% 23%

22% 19%

20%

22% 20% 19%

19%

eCommerce % Chg. Vs. YA 13%

15% 10%

9%

9%

9% 6%

5%

Q3 Currently Not Available, Government Release Date: Nov 19th 2008

3%

4%

6% 4%

4%

6%

5%

4%

Retail Sales % Chg Vs. YA Retail Sales (excl Autos)

0% Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08

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Online sales growth decelerated through Q2 and Q3 2008

Percent Growth in E-Commerce (Non-Travel Spending) Versus YA Source: comScore

Quarterly Growth

30% 25% 20% 15%

25% 24%

25%

23%

Monthly Growth

30% 23%

25% 19%

23%

13% 17%

10% 5% 0%

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11%

20% 15%

6% 10% 5%

15% 12%

11% 8%

6%

5%

0%

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Online spending growth within the mid-to-lower income households continues to be minimal

Q3 2008 Online Spending vs. YA by Income Segment Source: comScore

Bracket Share of Spending

22% 44% 34% 100%

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At least 80% of consumers in each income segment are more afraid of the economic future than ever before

Consumer Fear Factor Q: To what extent do you agree with the following statement: “I am more afraid about the economic future than ever before.�

Somewhat/Strongly Disagree

6%

7%

6%

14%

9%

10%

Neither

29%

36%

43%

Somewhat Agree

51%

47%

42%

Strongly Agree

Under $50k

$50k-$99,999

$100,000+

Source: comScore Survey October 2008 Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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A marked shift in consumers’ concern over prices happened in October, with unemployment and financial markets becoming more important issues Top Economic Issue: • Inflation for mid-to-lower income •Financial markets for upper income Q: Based on your situation, which one of the following economic conditions most concerns you?

Percent of Respondents Citing Their One Most Important Issue

Source: comScore Surveys – April, July & October 2008

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According consumers, Wall Street takes the most blame; and most don’t want their taxpayer money used to bail out firms

Q: Who do you think deserves the most blame for the situation on Wall Street?

Q: Do you think taxpayer money should be used to assist Wall Street firms?

Other, 5%

22%

Unsure/NA

70%

No

8%

Yes

Not Sure/NA, 14%

Wall Street, 38%

People who Borrowed, 16%

Government, 27%

Source: comScore Survey October 2008 Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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Middle age people are very uncomfortable with their level of debt; older people the most comfortable

Consumer Debt Levels: Comfort Level by Age Q: Please indicate your comfort level with your current amount of debt?

34% 43%

45% 54%

39%

Extremely/Very Uncomfortable

58% Neither

14%

27% 21%

27% 23%

19% 47%

39% 30%

18-24

25-34

35% 24%

23%

35-44

45-54

55-64

Extremely/Very Comfortable

65+

Source: comScore Survey October 2008 Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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People at the mid and lower income levels are much less at ease with their debt levels yet even nearly a third of high income consumers are uncomfortable Consumer Debt Levels Q: Please indicate your comfort level with your current amount of debt?

29% 45%

Extremely/Very Uncomfortable

56% 27% Neither/NA 20% 21% 45% Extremely/Very Comfortable

35% 23%

Under $50k

$50k-$99,999

$100,000+

Source: comScore Survey October 2008 Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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A ray of hope: with the drop in gas prices in October, consumers are marginally less likely to cut back on spending Percent Cutting Back by Income Segment Source: comScore Surveys – April, July and Oct 2008

Under $50K 84%

$51K - $99K

86% 80%

77%

$100K +

81% 74%

72% 66%

April 08

July 08

Oct 08

April 08

July 08

Oct 08

April 08

July 08

67%

Oct 08

Q: Are you cutting back on your spending due to concerns about the economy?

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Shopping less frequently reduces the likelihood of impulse buying among other POS challenges for retailers

Q: Please indicate the items for which you have cut back your spending.

Primary Ways People are Cutting Back on Shopping Expenses Shop Less Frequently

69%

Shopping

57%

Entertainment

48%

Vacation/Travel

51%

Gas and/or Auto

44%

Apparel /Accessories

39%

Music, Movies & Videos

35%

Home Improvement

29%

Health and Beauty

19%

Medical Needs

71%

Only Shop for Necessities

67%

Use Coupons More Often

62%

Reducing Gift Spending

51%

Buying Different Brands (incl.

Generic)

51%

Shop Only Sales

43%

Shop at Secondhand Stores

33%

Buying in Bulk (i.e. club stores)

28%

Look Online for Deals

25%

Shop at Different Retailers

25%

Sign up for Loyalty Programs Shop at Auction Sites

Source: comScore Survey October 2008 Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

22% 14%

Q: Please indicate the ways in which you have cut back your shopping expenses.

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Consumer Spending Patterns: Retailer Types

Multi-Channel retailers continued to gain market share at the expense of Pure Play retailers

Retailer Dollar Share by Channel Type Source: comScore, Inc.

Pure Play

Multi-Channel

57%

56%

Average Order Value: +8.1% Vs. YA

Average Order Value: -4.6% Vs. YA

43%

44%

Q3 2007

Q3 2008

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Many multi-channel retailer segments posted online sales gains with the exception of Apparel/Shoe/Accessories retailers who posted a slight decline in online sales

Multi-Channel Retailers: Online Q3 2008 Sales Change Versus Yr Ago

Department Stores

7%

Mass

Consumer Electronics

6%

2%

Apparel/Shoes/Accessories -3%

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Several top categories experienced sales declines in Q3 2008 when compared to last year Q3 2008 Performance Versus Year Ago

60%

VIDEO GAMES, CONSOLES & ACCESSORIES

40%

SPORT & FITNESS

26%

FURNITURE, HOME & GARDEN

18%

EVENT TICKETS

14%

FLOWERS, GIFT & GREETINGS

1%

CONSUMER ELECTRONICS (x PC)

0%

COMPUTERS / PERIPHERALS / PDAs APPAREL & ACCESSORIES

-2%

TOYS & HOBBIES

-3% -11%

JEWELRY & WATCHES

-17%

BOOKS & MAGAZINES MUSIC, MOVIES & VIDEOS*

-29%

-40% -30% -20% -10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

* Does not include digital downloads

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It appears that the classifieds market is also increasingly important during these tighter economic times

Average Monthly Unique Visitors by Quarter (Millions) 60

50

45 41

40

47

50

52

Classifieds

43

37

35 31

30

21 20

+16%

24

24

Q3 07

Q4 07

+48%

Craigs List

27

16

10

-

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q3 08

Source: comScore Media Metrix Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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Consumer Search and Referral Activity

Fairly flat visitation and less overall time spent suggests that only those with a specific purchase intent are utilizing Comparison Shopping Engines Comparison Shopping Engine Usage Source: comScore Media Metrix

Average Monthly Unique Visitors (MM)

Average Monthly Minutes Spent (MM)

318 294 -7% +2%

63.7

65.5 +3%

Q3 2007

Q3 2008

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Q3 2007

Q3 2008

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Referred traffic drove a greater proportion of online revenues in Q3 of 2008 compared to last year

Referred and Non-Referred Consumer Buying: Q3 2007 Vs. Q3 2008 Source: comScore, Inc.

75%

73%

Non-Referred Dollars

73%

70%

Referred Dollars

25%

27%

27%

30%

Q2 07

Q2 08

Q3 07

Q3 08

Top Three Shopper Referral Vehicles: Search, Email and Comparison Shopping

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Despite flat usage, Comparison Shopping sites increased their share of referred sales for retailers in Q3 of 2008

% of Referral Sources Buying Source: comScore, Inc.

52.7% 48.9%

11.3%

11.0% 5.9% 2.3%

Search/Navigation

eMail

Q3 2007

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Comparison Shopping

Q3 2008

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The number of U.S. searches has grown steadily, with Google outpacing the other engines

Total U.S. Searches (MM) Source: comScore, Inc.

12,000

10,000

Total

In Millions

8,000

6,000

Searches % Chg Vs YA

Google

Jul

Aug

Sep

Total

21%

19%

26%

Google

35%

31%

40%

Non-Google

3%

2%

7%

4,000

Non-Google 2,000

-

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2008 Holiday Season Outlook

Twice as many consumers said they would start shopping earlier this year than said they would start later

Q: When do you plan to start your holiday shopping?

Source: comScore Survey October 2008

51%

23% 14%

12%

Earlier than normal

About the same time

Later than normal

Not sure

The Thanksgiving to Christmas shopping season is five days shorter this year.

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Consumer sentiment suggests that spending will decline within households earning less than $100,000

Q: Do you anticipate your spending for the winter holiday season to be‌�

Source: comScore Survey October 2008

Spend Less 43% 59%

62% 3%

2%

Not Sure

1% 54%

39%

37%

Under $50k

$50k-$99,999

Spend More/Same

$100,000+

Compared to last year, at least 55% of all people in each segment are more sensitive to spending this holiday season, while only 6% are less sensitive.

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Lower spending this holiday season can be attributed to higher gas, food and energy prices and less spending power

Q: Do you anticipate your spending for the winter holiday season to be‌ 58%

Spend Less

40%

Spend more/Same

2%

Not sure

Q: Why are you planning to spend less this winter holiday season?

Source: comScore Survey October 2008

High gas, food and/or energy prices

68%

I have less money

62%

I am worried about the economy

51%

I have more expenses

My family has agreed to set limits on spending/spend less

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41%

28%

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Nearly 70% of all people plan to save this holiday season by purchasing fewer and/or less expensive gifts

Q: Do you anticipate your spending for the winter holiday season to be‌ 58%

Spend Less

40%

Spend more/Same

2%

Not sure

The top three online cost saving methods: Free Shipping Sale Items Not Paying Tax

Q: How do you plan to save on holiday spending this year?

Source: comScore Survey October 2008

Buy fewer gifts

73%

Buy less expensive gifts

69%

Use coupons

37%

Shop online to take advantage of free shipping, no tax, etc.

37%

Spend more time researching deals online

34%

Shop early in the season to take advantage of discounts

32%

Spend more time searching for deals in stores

32%

Shop later to take advantage of price reductions

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21%

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All income segments are turning to coupon sites more so than they did last year, most notably the higher income group More than 25 million Americans visited a coupon site in Q3 2008, an increase of 26% versus Q2 2008

Coupon Sites Average Monthly Unique Visitor Growth: Q3 2008 Vs. Yr Ago Source: comScore, Inc.

37%

25% 16%

Under $39k

$40k - $99,999

$100,000+

Web Search on Coupon Terms % Change

Searchers

Searches

Sept '07 Vs. Jan '07

100%

107%

Sept '08 Vs. Jan '08

45%

41%

Source: comScore Marketer Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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Gift cards were chosen as the top gift item followed by practical items/necessities

Q: What do you plan to buy as gifts for friends, relatives and others this holiday season?

Source: comScore Survey October 2008

Gift Cards

49%

Practical gifts/necessities

35%

Books, music or movies

30%

Apparel & Accessories

28%

Not Sure

24%

Health & Beauty products

14%

Electronics

12%

Jewelry & Watches

9%

Home & Garden items

8%

Other

8%

Computers & Hardware

Q: How are you planning to pay for gifts this holiday season?

5%

Appliances

3%

Vacations/Trips

2%

Luxury Items

2%

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Other, 2% Not Sure, 7% Credit Card Only, 14%

Take out a loan, 1%

Cash, Debit or Check, 49%

Cash & Credit Card, 28%

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If an online retailer charged for shipping, three out of four people said they would seek out another site that offered free delivery

Q: If an online retailer charged you for shipping, would you‌ Source: comScore Survey October 2008

Find a retailer online that offers free shipping

72%

Opt for in-store pick up if available

46%

Buy it offline

Not Sure

Other

40%

9%

4%

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Industry Commentary

"Retailers are going into this holiday season with their eyes wide open, knowing that savings and promotions will be the main incentive for shoppers." – Tracy Mullin, NRF President & CEO.

Sales & Deals "We're seeing holiday decorations come out earlier, holiday advertising come out earlier and promotions earlier than usual….[Retailers are] doing what they can to get consumers to shop.” – Erin Hershkowitz, International Council of Shopping Center.

Internet Usage

Consumer Behaviors

“What we’re seeing at Google is that the current economic climate continues to impact consumer search and spending behavior, with more and more consumers turning to the web to shop.” – John Burke, managing director of industry development & marketing, Google Inc. "Consumers are clearly feeling the effects of a perfect storm of challenging economic events such as the mortgage crisis, stock market volatility, and rising energy costs.”

– Lisa Klauser, a VP at Unilever's New Jersey operations.

“In previous downturns…we have often seen shopping as therapy…[Today] people aren’t shopping to feel better. They actually are not shopping to feel better.” – Todd Lavieri, CEO of Archstone Consulting.

Timing

“The state of the economy, coupled with one less weekend to lure in holiday shoppers this year, will result in retailers doing anything and everything they can to start the unofficial shopping season before Thanksgiving.” – Jon Hurst, Retailer Association of Massachusetts.

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Some Closing Thoughts

Some Closing Thoughts ■ Consumers’ spending power continues to be limited by concerns about rising prices, especially among mid-to-lower income households, but even within upper income segment the crisis in the financial markets has crimped their spending intentions ■ Online spending growth is likely to be heavily reliant on the $100,000 income bracket that still has sufficient disposable income ■ A continued drop in oil prices is a ray of hope in helping stymie the increase in gas and food prices and boosting spending power for all segments ■ Consumers say they will start shopping earlier this year – presumably to take advantage of early season offers and to gain some flexibility in spending ■ With prices being uppermost in consumers’ minds, smart retailers will do everything possible to meet their needs: – Free shipping is a game changer – Cost containment and inventory control are mandatory – Deals and special offers needed to entice shoppers, before and throughout the season

■ Consumer spending will be constrained during this holiday season, with comScore forecasting e-commerce growth of 6% to 10% versus year ago Proprietary and Confidential Do not distribute without written permission from comScore

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