Why Can a CRE Deal Collapse?
An Analysis of
Transaction-Level Data After a decade of thriving growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Valuations have been falling since the pandemic brought about lower occupancy rates and changes in where people work and how they shop. The Fed’s efforts to fight inflation by raising interest rates impacted the industry’s ability to fund deals and placed pressure on liquidity. According to Goldman Sachs, recent banking stress further added to these woes, where about 80% of all bank loans for commercial real estate deals come from regional banks. In the following analysis, we look at data from 1,747 Matthews™ transactions (closed and dead) to determine why a promising deal can collapse.
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Prices & Volume
Gone are the days of buyer-fueled bidding wars. Commercial property prices peaked in July 2022 and have since declined steadily. According to Real Capital Analytics, year-over-year (YOY) prices as of November 2023 have declined 8.0%, and YOY volume has declined 60%. These lows are reminiscent of early 2020 when uncertainty plagued the world with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A SSET CL A SS
% OF DE AL S MARKE D DE AD
Healthcare
22%
Hospitality
63%
According to RCA, prices have fallen 12% YOY for the apartment sector. Interestingly, Matthews’ data indicates that multifamily deals died at a faster rate compared to industrial and retail as higher rates put brakes on multifamily finance requests. However, the fundamentals for multifamily properties are still strong.
Industrial
24%
Multifamily
34%
Office
35%
Retail
27%
Self-Storage
32% *MATTHEWS™ RESEARCH
On the other hand, the industrial sector saw deals die at a slower rate, which could point to other reasons than financing for why the deal fell through, including environmental or inspection requirements. Currently, the YOY price change for industrial properties is 1.8%.
A SSET CL A SS
DAYS ON MARKET B E FORE B E I NG MARKE D DE AD
Healthcare
45.82
Industrial
39.10
Multifamily
52.27
Retail
46.24 *MATTHEWS™ RESEARCH
TR ANSACTION VOLUME SUMMARY SOU RC E: RC A
NOVE M B E R 2023
Office Retail Industrial Hotel Apartment Seniors Housing Dev Site Total
Y TD 2023
RCA CPPI
VOL ($B)
YOY
VOL ($B)
YOY
CAP R ATE
YOY
2.8 3.4 3.0 1.3 5.1 0.7 0.7 17.0
-54% -32% -64% -69% -68% 13% -64% -60%
43.4 52.1 76.0 21.7 105.5 8.4 16.7 323.8
-60% -39% -49% -53% -64% -32% -44% -55%
6.9% 6.7% 6.0% 8.5% 5.2% 6.2%
-14.9% -6.7% 1.8% 0.1% -12.1%
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-8.0
EMERGING HE ADWINDS Global growth in commercial real estate prices has slowed down as financial conditions have tightened.
Change in commercial real estate prices and global financial conditions
Percent change in commercial real estate prices by segment
6
6
Industrial Residential
4
4 Overall prices (percent)
2
2
0
0 Global financial conditions index
-2
Office
-2 Retail
-4
-4
-6
-6 2004
2010
2016
2022
2004
SOU RC E: M SC I
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2010
2016
2022
Capital Markets
Financial conditions are important price drivers and help explain the recent divergence between different parts of the market. While 7.69% for a 30-year fixed mortgage may seem extreme, given the all-time low of 2.65% in January 2021, it is still modest compared to the average yearly interest rates since 1975. While today’s rates are still historically low, the Federal Reserve did hold rates steady during their most recent meeting in December 2023, as well as in their November meeting, leaving interest rates between 5.25% to 5.50%.
CASH IS KING, ONLY 2% OF ALL- CASH DE ALS DIED. ACCORDING TO FORBES, THERE IS ANECDOTAL E VIDENCE THAT PORTFOLIO OWNERS CHOOSE TO BOOST LIQUIDIT Y WITH STR ATEGIC DISPOSITIONS AT APEX PRICING.
Tighter financial conditions directly impact commercial property prices by making it more expensive for investors to finance new deals or refinance existing loans, lowering investment in the sector. Given the data below, there is a slight lag between deals dying and rising rates. As for long-term investments, demand doesn’t seem to be slowing, and more private investors are planting capital into the industry, indicated by the continued demand for commercial properties such as shops, restaurants, industrial buildings, and apartments.
MATTHEWS™ SAW THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF DEALS DIE IN OCTOBER 2023, A RESULT OF A YE AR MARKED BY R ATE HIKES, INFL ATION, AND LOWER TRANSACTION VOLUME .
M ONTH
DE AD%
FOMC M E ETI NG DATE
R ATE CHANG E
FE DE R AL FUN DS R ATE
PRI M E R ATE
22-Oct
56%
22-Nov
24%
2-Nov-22
75 bps
3.75% to 4.00%
7.00%
22-Dec
28%
14-Dec-22
50 bps
4.25% to 4.50%
7.50%
23-Jan
30%
23-Feb
36%
1-Feb-23
25 bps
4.50% to 4.75%
7.75%
23-Mar
23%
22-Mar-23
25 bps
4.75% to 5.00%
8.00%
23-Apr
30% 4-May-23
25 bps
5.00% to 5.25%
8.25%
26-Jul-23
25 bps
5.25% to 5.50%
8.50%
20-Sep-23
5.25% to 5.50%
8.50%
23-May
25%
23-Jun
28%
23-Jul
22%
23-Aug
30%
23-Sep
27%
23-Oct
32%
23-Nov
27%
7-Nov-23
5.25% to 5.50%
8.50%
23-Dec
32%
18-Dec-23
5.25% to 5.50%
8.50%
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Collapse of a key property funding source STATE & LOCAL MACRO - ECONOMIC ACTIVIT Y Macroeconomic factors are important drivers of CRE prices. In general, characteristics at the state level, like GDP growth, population growth, inflation, and imports and exports, are important indicators of economic activity, thus driving commercial demand. More specific to commercial prices, state-level business elements like the cost of doing business, supply and demand factors, and employment opportunities can impact deals within a state. % DE ALS DE AD MATTHEWS™ RESEARCH
DEAD% 61%
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Key Takeaways
Given the current economic environment, some deals are sinking under the weight of higher interest rates and tighter lending. However, lenders are still funding, and investors are finding creative ways to get deals done.
In general, economies with easier financial conditions (that is, lower real interest rates and other market conditions that make it easier to obtain financing) saw a smaller decline in commercial property prices during the pandemic and a faster recovery. Commercial property prices have also been higher in states located along the Sunbelt, which have seen an increase in migration and higher demand.
So, why are deals are dying? The main reasons are… - Financing - Price - Environmental - Buyer Terminated - Market Conditions
Please contact a Matthews™ specialized agent for more information. D I S C L A I M E R : This information has been produced by Matthews Real Estate Investment Services™ solely for information purposes and the information contained has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified such information. No guarantee, warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained and Matthews Real Estate Investment Services™ shall not be liable to any reader or third party in any way. This information is not intended to be a complete description of the markets or developments to which it refers. All rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written consent of Matthews Real Estate Investment Services™.
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