Diablo Canyon Power Plant: Meltdown Effects on Land Use and Population
MATT KAWASHIMA | TREVOR BORELLO NR 318 FALL 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS background.............................................................................1 rationale...................................................................................3 objective..................................................................................3 study area ...............................................................................4 data sources............................................................................5 equipment used .....................................................................5 methods.....................................................................................6 results and discussion.........................................................11 limitations..............................................................................13 references..............................................................................13 appendix a: workflow diagram..............................................15 appendix b: land use code table..............................................17
Background Nuclear power plants provide 12.2 billion kilowatt-hours of energy for America. These power plants provide clean reliable energy to millions of homes. The problem that has come to attention with nuclear power plants is the dangers involved with having them near humans. A nuclear meltdown is when severe overheating to the core of a nuclear reactor occurs, which results in the core melting and radiation escaping. The tragic incidents in Japan only further demonstrate the horrors of what a nuclear power plant can do to an area. In some cases the people and land surrounding the power plant were contaminated. In March of 2011, Japan saw what happens to a nuclear power plant that endures a 9.0 earthquake and flooding. The Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (Figure 1.1) experienced a full meltdown in 3 of the reactors on site. Nearly 100,000 people had to be evacuated from the area due to radiation. The ocean, land, and air quality were all affected by the meltdown, which directly affect the people surrounding the area. The land affected by the meltdown will have some nuclear radiation for many years to come. The radiation from the plant Figure 1.1 Aftermath of meltdown at Fukushima Power Plant in Japan (http://rt.com/files/news/fukushima-cesium-levels-fish-264/ tsunami-crippled-fukushima-nuclear-power.jpg)
can kill humans, but there has been no evidence that links death to radiation at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Nuclear meltdowns need to be considered no matter how safe it claims 1
it to be. The reality is that no one can be ready for the unexpected and should take into account the possibilities of a nuclear meltdown for every nuclear power plant across the country. The closest nuclear power plant to San Luis Obispo is the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant (Figure 1.2), which is only located 10 minutes away in Avila Beach, Ca. This power plant has been operating safety since 1985. The facility is made up of two Westinghouse Pressurized Water Reactor The plant generates a total of 18,000 gigawatt-hours of clean and reliable electricity annually, that provides for 3 million north and central California homes. The Diablo Canyon Power plant has one of the best safety records in the business, but what if something was to go wrong. In recent years, the Nuclear Power Plants have been under extreme pressure to ensure total safety under any condition. Earthquakes and floods are the two main causes of damage to a nuclear power plant. The Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant was built to withstand extreme natural disasters. The plant has recently added seismic support to ensure safety. The surrounding land-use and population are the ones most affected by a nuclear meltdown. The Diablo Canyon Power Plant should be aware of the type of land-use and the amount of people the power plant may affect if something was to go wrong. 2 | kawashima. borrello | nr 318 | final project
Figure 1.2 Diablo Canyon Power Plant (http://www-csgc.ucsd.edu/NEWSROOM/NEWSRELEASES/RESOURCES/ DNPP.02Lo.jpg)
Rationale The decision to look into this issue was based on the relevance of Diablo Canyon Power Plant, recent nuclear-energy-related events, and nuclear energy in society. Diablo Canyon Power Plant is located in close vicinity to the City of San Luis Obispo. Diablo Canyon’s close vicinity to residents and commercial uses in SLO County makes the potential impact of disaster relevant to numerous people. Should disaster strike at Diablo, the impacts would be far reaching and affect everyone. History has also shown that there is always a possibility of destructive, and even fatal nuclear accidents occurring. Most recently, the 2011 nuclear meltdown in Fukushima, Japan is evidence of how destructive nuclear meltdown can be. The desire to utilize greener, cleaner, and more renewable energy over fossil fuels is a continually growing concern. Nuclear energy is one such source of clean energy, but is controversial due to the volatile and potentially destructive nature of nuclear energy. While nuclear energy is a tremendous asset and provider of energy, it also possesses the potential for destruction; it is a subject that will likely appear more in the future. Nuclear energy’s relevance to society, and particularly here in San Luis Obispo, is clear and evident. With the recent nuclear tragedy in Japan, all San Luis Obispo residents should be familiar with the potential impacts of a meltdown at Diablo Canyon Power Plant, and be familiar with and prepared in case an accident does occur. The decision to look at the impact of nuclear meltdown at Diablo stems from its relevance and potential impact on the land and people.
Objective Research was conducted to determine the effects of a nuclear meltdown at Diablo Canyon Power Plant, on existing land uses and population. The effects were based on a two-mile, five-mile, and ten-mile radius of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant.
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Study Area: Diablo Canyon Power Plant is located in San Luis Obispo County. The below maps shows the plant’s specific location within San Luis Obispo County:
Figure 1.3(above) Diablo Canyon Power Plant location within SLO County
Figure 1.4(left) Diablo Canyon Power facility
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Data Sources ● Cal Poly Data (Z & G Drives) ● San Luis Obispo County Planning Department ● San Luis Obispo Office of Emergency Services
Equipment Used The following programs were used in developing and modifying maps: ● ArcCatalog ● ArcMap ● Internet-based Research ● Adobe Indesign ● Microsoft Word ● Microsoft Excel
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Methods A map detailing the existing land uses and population affected by a meltdown at Diablo Canyon Power Plant was developed. The following outlines the procedure and methods undertaken to develop the map: To begin, a shapefile of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant facility was created in ArcCatalog and then added to ArcMap. The Shapefile was modified in ArcMap to show the boundary of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant using aerial imagery as guidelines. From here, the layer was buffered with ArcToolBox at 2 miles, 5 miles, and 10 miles. These distances were determined based on San Luis Obispo County Office of Emergency Services Nuclear Power Plant Emergency Response Plant. This plan designates Protective Action Zones (PAZs) that are located within 2, 5, and 10 miles of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant.
Figure 1.5 Buffer of 2 miles (left), 5 miles (middle), and 10 miles (right) from Diablo Canyon representing range of meltdown
After creating layers with the different meltdown radii, an existing land use map was created. San Luis Obispo County GIS data contained parcels with Land Use Codes (LUCs) designated with a numeric value. The data contains a total of 239 different LUCs, these needed to be reduced to a smaller number of existing land uses. Land Use Codes are created by the San Luis Obispo County Tax Assessors Office,
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so these codes were then translated into Land Use Categories determined by the San Luis Obispo County Planning Department. Land Use Categories are discussed in Section 22.04.030 of the Title 22, Land Use Ordinance. An excel table, provided by the County Planning Department, with all numeric LUCs with correlating titles of each LUC was then categorized by Title 22 Land Use Category (e.g. Agriculture, Open Space, Commercial Retail) (see Appendix B). This narrowed the number of land uses to a total of 14. After completing the excel table, the table was joined to the parcels layer based on the common LUC field. This layer was then displayed to show the Land Use Category or existing land use. Several issues were encountered when joining the Excel table with the Parcels layers. One of the first issues encountered was the join not validating due the Excel version being too new. This prevented opening up the Excel document to allow for the join. Luckily, this problem was fixed after saving the Excel Document as an older version. Another issue that was encountered was an invalid character in the Excel document. This took some time to diagnose and fix but it was eventually after trial and error. The problem was fixed by adding a space in front of
Figure 1.6 Existing Land Uses map for all parcels in SLO County
all the titles of the land use categories/existing land uses.
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With an existing land use layer of all parcels in SLO County developed, the next task was determining which parcels would be affected by meltdown at Diablo. A selection was made using the Select by Location tool for parcels with centroids under each of the concentric rings. This process was followed for the 2 mile, 5 mile, and 10 mile radii. Creating separate layers with parcels falling under each ring allowed for the total acreage of each land use to be calculated quickly and easily with the attribute table.
Figure 1.7 Existing Land Uses map for parcels within meltdown radaii
The final step was determining the population affected by meltdown at the Power Plant. A process similar to the one utilized for calculating the creating layers for land uses falling under each meltdown ring was used; this time however, a layer with
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population by census block for 2010 was used. Three different layers were created using the clip tool to clip out the population affected by the meltdown. The buffers were used to clip out 2-mile, 5-mile, and 10-mile population. This allows someone to look at the map and distinguish how many people were affected by the meltdown.
Figure 1.8 Maps detailing impacts of meltdown on population
Once the meltdown rings, existing land uses, and population maps were created they were overlaid to create a comprehensive map. Symbology was changed on the population map to show quantities with graduated symbols, rather than categories, this eliminated conflicting colors and busyness of the map, while making it much easier to comprehend the map.
Figure 1.9 Comprehensive map of population affected by meltdown
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diablo canyon meltdown: impacts on land use and population
ÂŻ
10 Miles
5 Miles
2 Miles
Commercial Retail Agriculture Commercial Service
Population
Industrial
0.0 - 25.0
Office Professional
25.0 - 100.0
Open Space
100.0 - 225.0
Public Facilities
225.0 - 500.0
Recreational
500.0 - 1000.0
Residential Multi Family Residential Rural Residential Single Family Residential Suburban Rural Lands Vacant
0
1.25
2.5
5
7.5
Miles 10
Source: Esri, i-cubed, USDA, USGS, AEX, GeoEye, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, and the GIS User Community
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Figure 1.10 Completed final map
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Results and discussion The following tables summarize the impacts of a nuclear meltdown on existing land use in San Luis Obispo County, based on meltdown spread of 2 miles, 5 miles, and 10 miles:
2 Mile Radius 2 Mile Radius
Land Use Public Facilities Land Use Residential Single Family Public Facilities Total Residential Single Family Total
5 Mile Radius 5 Mile Radius
Land Use Agriculture Land Use Public Facilities Agriculture Residential Single Family Public Facilities Residential Residential Suburban Single Family Rural Land Residential Suburban Vacant Rural Land Total Vacant Total
10 Mile Radius 10 Mile Radius
Land Use Agriculture Land Use Commerical Agriculture Retail Commercial Commerical Service Retail Commercial Retail Service Industrial Commercial Retail Office Professional Industrial Open OfficeSpace Professional Public Facilities Open Space Recreational Public Facilities Residential RecreationalMulti Family Residential Residential Rural Multi Family Residential Residential Single Rural Family Total Residential Single Family Total
Acres Acres3,491.52 370.08 3,491.52 3,861.60 370.08 3,861.60
Acres Acres 4,782.35 13,827.03 4,782.35 1,428.70 13,827.03 0.92 1,428.70 1,524.88 0.92 344.08 1,524.88 21,907.95 344.08 21,907.95
Acres Acres16,642.38 3.61 16,642.38 257.90 3.61 97.44 257.90 111.49 97.44 17.80 111.49 1,006.71 17.80 22,159.77 1,006.71 821.51 22,159.77 2,753.85 821.51 2,135.32 2,753.85 2,995.16 2,135.32 49,002.93 2,995.16 49,002.93
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A nuclear meltdown at Diablo Canyon Power plant, regardless of the size, will be most harmful to land currently designated as “public facilities�. Agriculture land and residential land uses become impacted more significantly as the meltdown radius increases. In a worst case scenario, the meltdown would affect 49,000 acres. An accident of this scale would impact land as far north as Morro Bay and as far east as San Luis Obispo. From our map we can make out an understanding about how many people would be affected by a meltdown. The table below shows the populations that would be affected by the meltdown at a 2-Mile, 5-Mile, and 10-Mile range:
Population Affected by Meltdown Distance from Meltdown
Population
2 Miles 5 Miles 10 Miles Total
From our map we found that a total of 26,726 people are going to be affected in a 10-Mile radius, 58 people are going to be affected in a 5-Mile radius, and 1 person is going to be affected in a 2-Mile radius. The land-use and population combined on a map show how many people and what kinds of land would be affected if a nuclear meltdown was to occur.
This map could potentially help the government in estimating how many people and what kinds of land have been exposed to radiation. The above results support Meltdown at Diablo Canyon Power Plant having a tremendous impact on both population and land use.
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1 58 26,726 26,784
Limitations
There are several limitations of the final map and calculations. The projected
land uses acres affected by meltdown are difficult to calculate. The acres affected are based on the assumption that all the parcels are correctly designated by land use code. This is rarely the case because it is such a tedious task and marinating this is difficult. Additionally, the population projected to be affected is based on 2010 census data by block, meaning that this number is based on how many people permanently reside there. Should meltdown occur the number would be different due to commuting, people working closer to the plant, and people visiting the area. It is impossible to calculate the exact number based on these factors. Finally, this map doesn’t account for secondary effects of nuclear meltdown. These secondary effects would impact both the land and population
References County of San Luis Obispo. (2006). Land use ordinance title 22 of the county code. Retrieved from: http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/PL/Land+Use+Ordinances/ Title+22+-++Land+Use+Ordinance/01+-+Title+22+-+Land+Use+Ordinance++Article+1+through+8.pdf County of San Luis Obispo Office of Emergency Services. (2010). Nuclear power plant emergency response plan. Retrieved from: http://www.slocounty.ca.gov/Assets/OES/Plans/ NPP+Admin+Plan.pdf Diablo Canyon Power Plant (image). Retrieved from: http://www-csgc.ucsd.edu/NEWSROOM/ NEWSRELEASES/RESOURCES/DNPP.02Lo.jpg Fukushima tsunami (image). Retrieved from: http://rt.com/files/news/fukushima-cesium-levelsfish-264/tsunami-crippled-fukushima-nuclear-power.jpg Zimmerlin, Jim. (2011). Jim zim’s pictures of the diablo canyon nuclear power plant. Retrieved from: http://www.zimfamilycockers.com/DiabloCanyon.html
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appendix a
Existing SLO county land use map
Add Base Map of SLO county
Existing SLO Population data
Enter SLO county Parcel data
Establishing Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant specific location (digitizing)
Diablo Canyon Power plant Map with projected meltdown radii
Convert numeric “Prim_LUC� to land use category
Map shows population most effected by meltdown
Data Final Map
Look at most effected land use areas based on meltdown range map
Projected from nuclear research
Generate a map showing range of nuclear meltdown (digitizing)
Project the population density in color
ta
Process
Distinguish each parcel by land use
Buffer data
Existing Landuse map affect by meltdown
Combine Landuse and Population map
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appendix b: land use code table Land Use Code (LUC) ABC AVL CVA CVB CVC CVD CVE CVF CVG CVX H1 H2 IMP IM2 MIN MN2 PRS PR2 RAH RD RGL RGO RG2 SUB SWP TDC 001 018 019 021 022 023
Title
Land Use Category/Existing Land Use
Avila Beach Cleanup Signature @ Avila Cal Valley Area A Cal Valley Area B Cal Valley Area C Cal Valley Area D Cal Valley Area E Cal Valley Area F Cal Valley Area G Cal Valley Lg Acres Historic Primary Historic Secondary Imperial @ Avl Imperial @ Avl Bi Anl Mini Suite @ Avl Mini Suite @ Avl Bi Anl Presidential @ Avl Presidential @ Avl Bi Anl Restricted Affordable Housing Road Regal @ Avl Regal Lockout @ Avl Regal @ Avl Bi Anl Subdivision State Water Project TDC Vacant Cal Valley Retired Water List Non OSC T&V OSC Property Land Locked-Vac or Improv
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Vacant Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Vacant
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appendix b: land use code table 024 025 026 027 030 031 033 035 038 039 041 042 050 051 052 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 115 120 121 125 130 131 132
Farmland Security Zone (FSZ) MH Licensed MH Unlicensed Fee Assessed Mobile Home Antenna Site Landfill Residual Land Segment Well Site Scenic Easement Open Space Easement Moorings/Storage Tiedowns/Port-A-Port Miscellaneous Misc Imps Misc Imps - Nil Value Vacant Single Family Vacant Urban 1-2.49 Vacant Urban 2.5-5 Vacant Urban >5 Vacant Rural 1-4.99 Vacant Rural 5-9.99 Vacant Rural 10-19.99 Vacant Rural 20-39.99 Vacant Rural 40-80 Vacant Rural >80 Single Family Single Family 0 Lot Line SFR W/ 2ND Living Unit Condominium Common Area PUD MH 1-2.49 AC MH 2.5-4.99 AC MH 5-9.99 AC
Agriculture Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Open Space Open Space Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Residential Single Family Residential Single Family Residential Single Family Residential Multi Family Residential Suburban Residential Single Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family
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appendix b: land use code table 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 145 150 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 200 201 202 203 205 209 210 215 216 217 218
MH 10-20 AC MH >20 AC MH PK - Rental SP MH PK - Owned SP MH Stockshare Park MH SFR Lot Mobilehome As Secondary CO-OP Mountain Cabin Time Share SFR 1-2.49 AC SFR 2.5-4.99 AC SFR 5-9.99 AC SFR 10-19.99 AC SFR 20-39.99 AC SFR 40-80 AC SFR >80 AC SFR W/ Sec 1-2.49 AC SFR W/Sec 2.5-4.99 AC SFR W/Sec 5-9.99 AC SFR W/ Sec 10-19.99 AC SFR W/Sec 20-39.99 AC SFR W/Sec 40-80 AC SFR W/Sec >80 Vacant Income Residential Duplex/ 2 Units Triplex/ 3 Units Fourplex/ 4 Units Income 2-4 Units, Detached Res On Multi Family Apartments 5-10 Units Apartments 11-20 Units Apartments 21-50 Units Apartments 51-75 Units Apartments 76-100 Units
Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Rural Residential Single Family Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Residential Suburban Residential Suburban Residential Rural Residential Rural Rural Lands Rural Lands Rural Lands Residential Suburban Residential Suburban Residential Rural Residential Rural Residential Rural Residential Rural Residential Rural Vacant Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family
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appendix b: land use code table 219 222 223 230 231 235 300 305 309 310 311 321 322 324 325 326 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 341 345 346
Apartments 101+ Units Income 5-10 Units, Detached Income 11+ Units, Detached Student Housing Senior Retirement Housing Rooming House Vacant Commercial Commercial & Residential Res On Commercial Retail Sales Laundromat Restaurant Small Sit Down Restaurant Large Sit Down Restaurant, Fast Food/ Take-Out Bar/Cocktail Lounge Wine Tasting/Micro Brew Offices, Medical/Dental Office Converted SFR Office 1-5 Units Office 6-10 Units Office 11-25 Units Office 26-49 Units Office 50+ Units Office Condo Medical Condo Mobile Home Park 1-35 SP Mobile Home Park 36-200 SP Mobile Home Park 200+ Spaces
Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Vacant Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Office Professional Office Professional Office Professional Office Professional Office Professional Office Professional Office Professional Office Professional Office Professional Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family Residential Multi Family
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appendix b: land use code table 351 352 355 361 362 363 364 371 372 373 374 379 380 381 382 383 385 389 390 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 411
Shopping Centers Small Neigh Shopping Centers Community Shopping Cntr Regional Motel W/O Rest 1-15 Units Motel W/O Rest 16-50 Units Motel W/O Rest 51-100 Units Motel W/O Rest 101+ Units Motel With Rest 1-15 Untis Motel With Rest 16-50 Units Motel With Rest 51-100 Units Motel With Rest 101+ Units Bed & Breakfast Automotive Uses Automotive - Service Station Automotive - Sales And Service Automotive - Car Wash Commercial Service Parking Lot Banks/Savings And Loan Vacant Institutional Hospital Public Hospital Private Hospital Convalescent Res Care Facility Hospital Veterinarian Cemetery Mortuary Grocery - Supermarket
Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commerical Retail Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Public Facilities Commercial Service Vacant Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Service Commercial Retail
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appendix b: land use code table 412 415 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 430 435 440 509 511 512 515 520 522 530 531 532 533 534 540 541 542 543 544 545 546
Grocery - Local Mini Mart W/ Fuel Recreational Recreational - Theater Recreational - Bowling Alley Recreational - Camp Ground Recreational - Marina Recreational - Golf Course Recreational - Hunting Boat Club Recreational Meeting Hall Vacant Industrial Commercial/Industrial Mall Commercial/Industrial Condo Res On Industrial/ MFG Manufacturing - Light Manufacturing - Heavy Mini Storage Warehousing Hangar Mining Misc Mining Sand/Gravel Mining Red Rock Mining Mercury/Quicksilver Mining Gypsum Oil Producing Field Oil Non Producing Lease Oil - Tank Farm Oil - Pump Station Oil Terminal Vacant Oil Gas Non Producing Minerals
Commercial Retail Commercial Retail Recreational Recreational Recreational Recreational Recreational Recreational Recreational Recreational Recreational Vacant Commercial Retail Commercial Retail Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Vacant Industrial
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appendix b: land use code table 550 551 552 555 556 580 600 602 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 630 631 632 636 637 640 650 660 661 662 690 691
Oil Pipeline County Assessed Oil Pipeline Ptn Co Ptn State Oil Pipeline State Assessed Oil Refinery Oil Chemical Plant Septage/Sludge Sites Agricultural Property Conservation Easement Trees/Vines Grapes Trees/Vines Lemons Trees/Vines Oranges Trees/Vines Apples Trees/Vines Avocados Trees/Vines Walnuts Trees/Vines Almonds Trees/Vines Kiwi Trees/Vines Pistachio Trees/Vines Olives Trees/Vines Berries Trees/Vines Peaches Trees/Vines Nectarines IRR IRR Alfalfa IRR Row Crop Winery Greenhouses Dry Farm Graze Specialty Specialty Horses Specialty Poultry Hobby Agricultural Hobby Vineyards
Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture
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appendix b: land use code table 692 802 810 820 850 851 852 853 854 855 856 857 858 860 861 862 863
Hobby Orchards Public Transportation Facility Church School Vacant Government Government - Office Government - Fire Dept Government - Library Government - Recreational Government - Yards Government Post Office Government Government Prison Public Utility Water Co Tower Site Fee Tower Site Leased
Agriculture Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities Public Facilities
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