FRAME FRAME YOUR YOUR OWN OWN NARRATIVE NARRATIVE
Max Moinian 180606
FRAME FRAME YOUR YOUR OWN OWN NARRATIVE NARRATIVE
Screen Shot 2018-04-29 at 8.04.06 PM The layers of my InDesign document that categorizes the events on the timeline. I realize in retrospect that this was my method. Refer to the timeline folded in the jacket of this book or on the top right tab of the webpage.
Max Moinian 180606
Screen Shot 2018-03-06 at 11.29.01 PM Searching “EARTH” on Google.
Media, Policy, Science constructing Climate & Risk How are climate and risk constructed in public perception? A timeline of events that reveal how media, policy, and science constructed the dominant narratives of climate and risk.
Take a Closer Look... Charting isolated moments, overlapped moments, and linked threads through time to reveal the dynamics between media, policy, and science.
Max Moinian 180606
FUNCTION The timeline FRAME YOUR OWN NARRATIVE: CONSTRUCTING RISK & CLIMATE functions as a choose your own adventure to contemplate, learn, add, erase.
It is a scrappy artifact that painfully resists hierarchy. (Painful to your eyes perhaps, also painful to my impulsive breaking of rules)
This is done so you can take a ride, and at the end ask yourself, what sticks?
PURPOSE A revisionist history for linear thinkers who prefer not to go down cycles and spirals of internet holes uncovering stories and events, and always working backwards. A documentation of energy culture, climate consciousness, and risk perception. ** An encounter with the impossible question of what myth means? ** And a dance through a decent chunk of the past to see the ways stories transcends time and sneak across a variety of mediums. AND, how the fiction we have relied on for earthly survival deals with a newer thing called Science Fact to explain global phenomena and the uncanny.
How to ride the timeline . . .
Max Moinian 180606
NACA 0.00
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" THINK WE MUST! "
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FULLER DYMAXION HOUSE
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TRANSCENDENTALISM
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Geo-engineering, capitalism, extraction
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TURNER
Yet across the gulf of space, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this earth with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us.
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( PA RTS PER M ILLION ) CONCENTR ATION OF CO2
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GIFFORD PINCHOT
Virginia Woolf
" CORPORATE GIANTS "
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POPULAR SCIENCE MONTHLY
" METAFICTION "
1.50 The Sublime Conquest of Nature
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Conservation foundation by John Muir, with help from Berkeley + Stanford professors
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Rain, Steam, + Speed
Charles Taze Russell
"Unless we practice conservation, those who come after us will have to pay the price of misery, degradation, + faulure for the progress + prosperity of our day"
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1800
MONET
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LEICA INVENTS THE 35MM CAMERA
"Capitalism... is by nature a form or method of economic change and not only never is but never can be stationary. This process of Creative Destruction is the essential fact about capitalism."
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Max Moinian 180606
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PATRICK GEDDES Town Planner + Biologist; beginning of the concept “think globally, act locally”
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MEDIA NEWS MOVIES ART BOOKS SCI FI ACTIVISM DENIERS
Unloading Coal
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(CELCIUS )
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SU R FACE TEM PER ATU R E RISE
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SEA LEV EL RISE
frame your own narrative: constructing risk & climate
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Sunrise
" CREATIVE DESTRUCTION "
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Hugo Gernsback
PHOTOJOURNALISM
" SCIENTIFICTION "
Crimean War photographs by "combat photographer" Carol Szathmari, a Romanian artist, considered first photojournalism. ‘Local character’ is thus no mere accidental old-world quaintness, as its mimics think and say. It is attained only in course of adequate grasp and treatment of the whole environment, and in active sympathy with the essential and characteristic life of the place concerned.”
"A charming romance intermingled with scientific fact + prophetic vision"
Joseph Schumpeter, Economist
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS Stewart Brand
References cloud seeding and controlling the weather; projects Kurt's brother Bernie was working on at GE
UNCHAINED GODDESS
CARSON
In 1966 I had buttons made with the paranoidsounding slogan, “Why haven’t we seen a photograph of the whole Earth yet?” Well, we got the photos from NASA in 1969.
THE TERRITORIAL IMPERATIVE
CARSON “Two scientists + Meteora, the goddess of weather explain how it’s created and warn about the global threat of climate change.”
Map of Broken Glass (Atlantis)
"GET CLEAN FOR GENE"
" TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS "
Carson appears on CBS Reports
Carson testifies before the Senate Commerce Committee; televised Carson dies of breast cancer
Animal biology in defense of militarism + capitalist expansion
SMITHSON FLAT EARTH SOCIETY
James Merrill "As usual in New York, everything is torn down before you have had time to care for it."
MONSANTO
PESTICIDE RESIDUE ON FOOD + IN HUMAN BODY
" OUTLAWS "
Considered "safe" to have 127 different pesticide residues on crops. USA Toxicologist: "everyday exposure to DDT leaves 1 in 10 parts per million in body tissue" Emphasizes million, as if this number is negligable, but who watching CBS reports understand what 1 in 1o ppm means? Buckminster Fuller
"All improvement has to be made in the outlaw area" "What could happen to the USA if chemical defenses against pests were lost."
Profile of Buckminster Fuller in the New Yorker
1970
Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on April 23, 2018
1960
First issue, cover by Milton Glaser
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"TRY STUFF, try everything. One thing we need is better outlaws"
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"HARD" + "SOFT" ENERGY PATHS
“hard” = fossil fuels + nuclear “soft” = renewables Coins terms; proposes phasing out of “hard” by 2025
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Amory Lovins
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"As if the spirits of our ancestors weren't trouble enough, now we're haunted by the ghosts of our descendants"
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SLR "PROOF" & CLIMATE REFUGEES
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EARTH DAY
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ONLY ONE EARTH
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"Suppose 7 billion try to live like Europeans or Japanese? Suppose they seek American standards of automobile use?"
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Motto for upcoming conference is commissioned as book by Barbara Ward + Renee Dubos
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1970
OPEN LAND MOVEMENT
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MEDIA NEWS MOVIES ART BOOKS SCI FI ACTIVISM DENIERS
Max Moinian 180606
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Lou Gottleib
"We're fighting against the territorial imperative"
THE COOLING WORLD
Land Deeds to God
"Now, as the author of that story, after decades of scientific advances, let me say this: while the hypotheses described in that original story seemed right at the time, climate scientists now know that they were seriously incomplete. Our climate is warming — not cooling” (2014)
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Gaylord Nelson
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WOODSTOCKHOLM
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(CELCIUS )
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SU R FACE TEM PER ATU R E RISE
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more frequent + powerful storms, floods, heatwaves
"WATERGATE OF WEATHER WARFARE"
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SEA LEV EL RISE
frame your own narrative: constructing risk & climate
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“Global Warming Has Begun”
Jack Anderson confirms Operation Popeye in Washington Post article
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“ GLOBAL WARMING ”
"THE NORTH POLE MOVES TO NEW YORK AS UNEXPECTED DISASTER STRIKES IN!"
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“It is so hard to imagine anything fundamentally different from what we have now. But without these alternate visions, we get stuck. And we’d better get ready. We need to know where we’d like to go.”
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Denis Hayes Formed by Gaylord Nelson in response to Santa Barbara oil spill in 1969; 20 million people led by Denis Hayes, one year out of Stanford, where he was student body president
Coined by American scientist, Wallace Broecker in Science Magazine
The Whole Earth At Night
ENERGIEWENDE
UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm is dubbed "Woodstockholm" acknowleding the influence of Hog Farm Commune + Tent City as counterculture demonstration
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Energy Transition: Growth + Prosperity without Oil + Uranium. Germans inspired by Lovins, who then inspired Energiewende movement
SKEPTICS ORGANIZE Global Climate Coalition Info Council for the Environment sponsored by fossil fuel industries (API) to slow greenhose gas regualtion
"WEAR SUNSCREEN"
OSTROM
" FREE RIDER "
Roland Emmerich, Director "Only this time the threat doesn't come from aliens or giant angry lizards or asteroids plummeting toward the planet. Instead, global warming threatens our big blue marble."
" SPLINTERING URBANISM"
"Slow Disasters" are a boring, lasting, deadly trend, not to be distracted by accounts of singular incidents; Global Warming is a character
"I remembered this book I once read, The Coming Global Superstorm. And it just hit me. That's my movie. I don't need a monster or a villain. Just the weather."
David Harvey
" Those who live by the image did not care to have that image so magnificently and publicly punctured "
FINAL FANTASY Debora Wilson, President of The Weather Channel
1990
ESSAY
What "environmental wackos really want to do is attack our way of life" in the effort to limit CFC's. "Their primary enemy: capitalism."
B E YO N D T H E I VO RY TOW E R
2/21/2018
"People connect with weather unlike any other topic. It's relevant to everyone and has an everyday effect on people's lives... It is a powerful way to connect people to the broader universe. Weather is almost a primal force."
The Hockey Stick: The Most Controversial Chart in Science, Explained - The Atlantic
The Hockey Stick: The Most Controversial Chart in Science, Explained
New York Times
" ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT "
BECK
This year's essay series highlights the benefits that scientists, science, and technology have brought to society throughout history.
The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change Naomi Oreskes
P
olicy-makers and the media, particular- Academy of Sciences report, Climate ly in the United States, frequently assert Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key that climate science is highly uncertain. Questions, begins: “Greenhouse gases are Some have used this as an argument against accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a readopting strong measures to reduce green- sult of human activities, causing surface air house gas emissions. For example, while dis- temperatures and subsurface ocean tempercussing a major U.S. Environmental Pro- atures to rise” [p. 1 in (5)]. The report extection Agency report on the risks of climate plicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is change, then–EPA administrator Christine a fair summary of professional scientific Whitman argued, “As [the report] went thinking, and answers yes: “The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the through review, there was less consensus on Without substantial disagreement, observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to the science and conclu- scientists find human activities have been due to the insions on climate change” are heating the Earth’s surface. crease in greenhouse gas (1). Some corporations concentrations accurately whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon reflects the current thinking of the scientific dioxide emissions have also alleged major community on this issue” [p. 3 in (5)]. Others agree. The American Meteorouncertainties in the science (2). Such statements suggest that there might be substantive logical Society (6), the American Geodisagreement in the scientific community physical Union (7), and the American about the reality of anthropogenic climate Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent change. This is not the case. The scientific consensus is clearly ex- years concluding that the evidence for human pressed in the reports of the Inter- modification of climate is compelling (8). The drafting of such reports and stategovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World ments involves many opportunities for Meteorological Organization and the United comment, criticism, and revision, and it is Nations Environmental Programme, IPCC’s not likely that they would diverge greatly purpose is to evaluate the state of climate sci- from the opinions of the societies’ memence as a basis for informed policy action, bers. Nevertheless, they might downplay primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypublished scientific literature (3). In its most pothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abrecent assessment, IPCC states unequivocal- stracts, published in refereed scientific ly that the consensus of scientific opinion is journals between 1993 and 2003, and listthat Earth’s climate is being affected by hu- ed in the ISI database with the keywords man activities: “Human activities … are “climate change” (9). The 928 papers were divided into six catmodifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents … that absorb or scatter radiant egories: explicit endorsement of the consenenergy. … [M]ost of the observed warming sus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigaover the last 50 years is likely to have been tion proposals, methods, paleoclimate due to the increase in greenhouse gas con- analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the centrations” [p. 21 in (4)]. IPCC is not alone in its conclusions. In first three categories, either explicitly or imrecent years, all major scientific bodies in plicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% the United States whose members’ expertise dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking bears directly on the matter have issued sim- no position on current anthropogenic cliilar statements. For example, the National mate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position. Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, The author is in the Department of History and Science developing methods, or studying paleocliStudies Program, University of California at San Diego, matic change might believe that current La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. E-mail: noreskes@ucsd.edu
1686
3 DECEMBER 2004
VOL 306
SCIENCE
climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point. This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public statements of their professional societies. Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect. The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility, and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. But our grandchildren will surely blame us if they find that we understood the reality of anthropogenic climate change and failed to do anything about it. Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen. References and Notes
1. A. C. Revkin, K. Q. Seelye, New York Times, 19 June 2003, A1. 2. S. van den Hove, M. Le Menestrel, H.-C. de Bettignies, Climate Policy 2 (1), 3 (2003). 3. See www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm. 4. J. J. McCarthy et al., Eds., Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001). 5. National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 2001). 6. American Meteorological Society, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 508 (2003). 7. American Geophysical Union, Eos 84 (51), 574 (2003). 8. See www.ourplanet.com/aaas/pages/atmos02.html. 9. The first year for which the database consistently published abstracts was 1993. Some abstracts were deleted from our analysis because, although the authors had put “climate change” in their key words, the paper was not about climate change. 10. This essay is excerpted from the 2004 George Sarton Memorial Lecture, “Consensus in science: How do we know we’re not wrong,” presented at the AAAS meeting on 13 February 2004. I am grateful to AAAS and the History of Science Society for their support of this lectureship; to my research assistants S. Luis and G. Law; and to D. C. Agnew, K. Belitz, J. R. Fleming, M. T. Greene, H. Leifert, and R. C. J. Somerville for helpful discussions.
Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on April 17, 2018
“Is any place safe from mankind?”
SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
10.1126/science.1103618
www.sciencemag.org
Published by AAAS
2005
MICHAEL MANN
WORLD OZONE DAY OM M
PNUE
INTERGOVERNM ENTAL PANEL ON CLIM ATE CHANGE WM O
" REFLEXIVE MODERNIZATION "
UNEP
IPCC Second Assessm ent Cl i m at e Ch an g e 1 9 9 5
Activist group "aiming media attention at issues related to the corporate takeover of our society"
A REPORT OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
UN names September 16 an international awareness day
Reducing Human Impact on the Earth
Nature Journal Hockey Stick Graph colleagues published a paper that sought to reconstruct the planet's past of rising temperartures
IPCC Third Assessment Report/Wikipedia
A
Back in 1998, a little known climate scientist named Michael Mann and two
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/the-hockey-stick-the-most-controversial-chart-in-science-explained/275753/
EXXON AD
EXXON ADS IN THE PAPER Washington Post
1/6
The unfolding of these trends will, of course, have farCROSS the world, a number of current and reaching implications for societies. But surprisingly little emerging problems pose new dangers for indusresearch has been done on the fiscal consequences. trial and developing countries alike. The converGovernments will need to respond to growing demands for gence of these problems will create significant social services, heightened security needs, and unanticipated social, political, and economic challenges to governments shocks. And fiscal risks will be already stretched by new threats amplified by the fact that most govfrom international terrorism and ernments have precommitted other risks. This combination of resources to meet generous social challenges includes the following: insurance packages. Indeed, indusDemographic changes. Longer trial country outlays will need to rise life expectancy and lower fertility sharply simply to fulfill promises rates will boost the proportion of made to aging populations (see elderly in many industrial countries Chart 2, page 38). and some emerging markets (see Should these fiscal risks be a Chart 1, page 38)—in some cases, source for concern, given the enoreven as total population shrinks. In mous uncertainties in long-run foremany developing countries, howcasts? With continued real growth, ever, youth populations will won’t economies be richer, enabling explode and, in some, HIV/AIDS future generations to pay higher will continue to cut lives short and taxeswithout a decline in living stanretard economic growth. dards? Shouldn’t the poorest counClimate changes. Global warmtries focus on maximizing growth, ing will trigger higher temperarather than take actions that would tures, new precipitation patterns, a benefit only future generations? rising sea level, and more frequent While these are valid questions, a extreme weather events—hitting forthcoming comprehensive fiscal the economies of the tropics, study suggests that policymakers southern Africa, and some island Peter S. Heller would be well advised to begin grapstates especially hard. Scientists plingnow with future fiscal risks. are fairly sure that the concentration of greenhouse gases already Being short sight ed present in the atmosphere will warm the earth’s surface about 1.9–5.8 degrees centigrade (roughly 3–10 degrees Few governments now take account of long-term risks. Even Fahrenheit) over the next century. The only uncertainty is where government policies have given rise to accumulating how quickly climate change will occur, how it will manifest commitments—for example, in the social insurance itself in different regions, and whether human intervention sphere—most budgets give little guidance on future liabilican moderate the extent of global warming during the next ties. The potential costs of fiscal guarantees, contingent liacentury. bilities, and more implicit commitments are rarely reflected Economic changes. The growing interconnectedness of in budgets. Thus, measures of debt significantly understate a the global economy means that shocks, positive stimuli, and government’s total obligations. technological advances will be transmitted more rapidly Moreover, while budgets increasingly encompass a across national borders. As capital becomes more mobile, it medium-term framework of three to five years, few countries will be harder for governments to tax it, shifting tax burdens provide long-term scenarios—the exceptions being Australia, increasingly to labor. And disparities in global incomes will the United Kingdom, and, to a more limited extent, the United worsen, heightening the risk of political instability, especially States (see box on page 39). Most countries’ sustainability if high youth unemployment persists. analyses focus on their ability to service current debt and Security changes. Global security will be threatened by the anticipated future deficits and may not draw on available risk of bioterrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass actuarial assessments of pension schemes. Projections of destruction, the competition for water and energy supplies, broader fiscal aggregates lack credibility, because they are and even health scares, as illustrated by SARS. based on unchanged policy assumptions, current laws, or conTechnological changes. The ongoing technological revolustant shares of revenues and expenditure in output. Budget tion—in biogenetics, information and communications, new processes also lack mechanisms to foster debate on policy materials, and cognitive science—will stimulate higher procommitments or guarantees whose fiscal consequences ductivity, creating opportunities for better health and longer emerge only over the long term; rarely are legislatures lives but also intensifying pressures for higher health spending. required to ration or limit such policies.
Time is ticking away to solve long-term fiscal challenges posed by aging societies, climate change, and other problems
Who Will Pay?
36
Al Gore "The movie is fiction, of course, and it's important we separate fact from fiction. But it raises an extremely serious issue. We do face a climate crisis. It should be seen as a genuine global emergency."
Finance & Development September 2003
DR. FRED SINGER
ALMANAC OF THE DEAD
Produced by the coal industry “rising CO2 levels is good for agriculture”
" SOUND SCIENCE " Native Science Fiction
"Questions, myths, and urban legends put to the test"
OREGON PETITION New York Times + Washington Post
“CO2 is not a pollutant. On the contrary, it makes crops and forests grow faster. Economic analysis has demonstrated that more CO2 and a warmer climate will raise GNP and therefore average income.”
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Nonbinding agreement to limit warming to
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Tim de Christopher "Energy production is not separate from social issues; from the "People are scared. It just sounds like people way we seek happiness are afraid. And the people who are afraid in in our culture." general — are older. Climate change deniers, are older. It’s generational. So we’re just going "For me it wasn't to have to wait for those people to 'age out.' 'Age about environmental out' is a euphemism for 'die.' But it’ll happen, I issues anymore, rather guarantee you — that’ll happen." where we are headed in human terms." Sherri Goodman
4.50 1.50
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THE UNITED NATIONS
Public Disclosure Authorized
COPENHAGEN
Public Disclosure Authorized
5.5
Public Disclosure Authorized
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Natural UnNatural The Economics of Effective Prevention
Public Disclosure Authorized
0.00
2/27/2018
UN & World Bank
Global Warming's Terrifying New Math - Rolling Stone
2/27/2018
Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration - Rolling Stone
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Mųșįč
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Mǿvįěș
Vįđěǿ Ģǻměș
Mųșįč
Pǿŀįțįčș
ȚV
Mǿvįěș
Mǿřě Țẅ Ňǿ Ǿp Fǻ
İň Přǻįșě ǿf 'Ǻňňįħįŀǻțįǿň' ǻňđ țħě Mǿđěřň 'Ẅěįřđ'...
Țħě Șǿųŀ-Čřųșħįňģ Ŀěģǻčỳ ǿf Bįŀŀỳ Ģřǻħǻm
ȚŘĚŇĐİŇĢ Ňěẅș
Pǿŀįțįčș
Vįđěǿ Ģǻměș
Mǿřě
Ģŀǿbǻŀ Ẅǻřmįňģ'ș Țěřřįfỳįňģ Ňěẅ Mǻțħ Ẅěŀčǿmě țǿ țħě Ǻģě ǿf Čŀįmǻțě Mįģřǻțįǿň
ȚŘĚŇĐİŇĢ
Țħě Șǿųŀ-Čřųșħįňģ Ŀěģǻčỳ ǿf Bįŀŀỳ Ģřǻħǻm
Țẅįțčħ'ș Mǿșț Ňǿțǿřįǿųș Čħǻmpįǿň Ǿpěňș Ųp Ǻbǿųț Fǻmįŀỳ,...
İň 'Ǻ Mǿ
Țħřěě șįmpŀě ňųmběřș țħǻț ǻđđ ųp țǿ ģŀǿbǻŀ čǻțǻșțřǿpħě - ǻňđ țħǻț mǻķě čŀěǻř ẅħǿ țħě řěǻŀ ěňěmỳ įș
" 2°C " Ěxțřěmě ẅěǻțħěř đųě țǿ čŀįmǻțě čħǻňģě đįșpŀǻčěđ mǿřě țħǻň ǻ mįŀŀįǿň pěǿpŀě fřǿm țħěįř ħǿměș ŀǻșț ỳěǻř. İț čǿųŀđ șǿǿň řěșħǻpě țħě ňǻțįǿň
Bỳ Jěff Ģǿǿđěŀŀ 2 đǻỳș ǻģǿ
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“GLOBAL WARMING CAN’T STOP OUR LIVES!”
3.0 0.60
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2.70 Montauk Monster
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CONCENTRATION OF METHANE GAS ( PARTS PER BILLION )
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VANITY FAIR
“You’re doing a heck of a job, Brownie” goes viral
“While Washington Sleeps”
Brashears
NIPCC
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“Inside the Denial Machine”
0.00 5.5 5.10
2005
" FORTRESS URBANISM "
4.80 1.50
350.ORG Established by Bill McKibben; named after 350 parts per million - the safe concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere 350 uses online campaigns, grassroots organizing, and mass public actions to oppose new coal, oil and gas projects, take money out of the companies that are heating up the planet, and build 100% clean energy solutions that work for all. 350's network extends to 188 countries.
4.50 4.20
1.20
Redrock Country, Utah Protested Bureau of Land Management; Bid and won Oil + Gas auction of public land; $1.8 million with no intent to pay; served 21 months in prison
3.90 3.60
MEDIA NEWS MOVIES ART BOOKS SCI FI ACTIVISM DENIERS 0.90
CLIMATE GATE Leaked files used by deniers to argue against consensus among climate scientists. Four independent investigations find that the deniers' claims are false.
3.30
THE LANCET Mortality + Carbon Emission
3.0
0.60
2.70 2.40
0.30
2.10
0.00
5.10
4.80
(CELCIUS )
1.80
SU R FACE TEM PER ATU R E RISE
( MILIM ETERS)
5.5
SEA LEV EL RISE
frame your own narrative: constructing risk & climate
Passacantando "We now know that they were using climate change as a source of insight into exploration"
0.90
1.80
Max Moinian 180606
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974
this still means 5 - 9 meters of SLR
Diesel Ad Campaign
1.50 1.20 0.90
UK ROYAL SOCIETY SCOLDS EXXON United Kingdom's Science Academy sends a harsh letter to Exxon accusing it of being "inaccurate and misleading" on the question of climate uncertainty; demanded that Exxon stop giving money to dozens of organizations he said were actively distorting the science.
“the GCC led an aggressive lobbying + PR campaign against the idea that emissions of heat-trapping gases could lead to global warming” -Andrew Revkin, NYT
STATE OF THE UNION
Obama "Nowhere is the promise of innovation greater than in American-made energy. Over the last three years, we’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration, and tonight, I’m directing my administration to open more than 75 % of our potential offshore oil and gas resources." But with only 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves, oil isn’t enough. This country needs an all-out, all-of-the-above strategy that develops every available source of American energy. (Applause.) A strategy that’s cleaner, cheaper, and full of new jobs. We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years. (Applause.)
The book is adapted to a documentary film, depicting what each degree of temperature rise looks like; narrated by Alec Baldwin.
0.60 0.30 0.00
Debunking the models vs data myth
1/26
GOT IT
1.20
2.70
5.5
FEMA Director Michael Brown claims to be unaware of the conditions in the SuperDome, while the world watches it on TV.
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" 2°C "
2.10 1.80
0.00
"Key mobilizer in the anti-fracking movement" " Brought the term 'hydraulic fracturing' into the nation's living rooms" (NYT)
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"Geo-engineering is a bad idea whose time has come"
The City + The Storm
1/24
" CLIMATE GENTRIFICATION " 1/4 mammals We have a chance at redemption. are now Writing considered endangered apocalyptic stories can convey a message of change, and even hope.
AN INCONVENIENT SEQUEL
S
How to Let Go of the World
THE HUMAN ELEMENT
Desmond Tutu
"If you agree to 2o C, you're agreeing to cooking our continent."
“People need such stories, because however dark, a darkness with voices in it is better than a silent void.”
2/27/2018
Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration - Rolling Stone
Before the Flood
MARCH FOR SCIENCE
Ňěẅș
Vįđěǿ
Mųșįč
Pǿŀįțįčș
ȚV
Mǿvįěș
Vįđěǿ Ģǻměș
Mǿřě
Țẅįțčħ'ș Mǿșț Ňǿțǿřįǿųș Čħǻmpįǿň Ǿpěňș Ųp Ǻbǿųț Fǻmįŀỳ,...
Țħě Șǿųŀ-Čřųșħįňģ Ŀěģǻčỳ ǿf Bįŀŀỳ Ģřǻħǻm
ȚŘĚŇĐİŇĢ
İň 'Ǻ Mǿ
Ẅěŀčǿmě țǿ țħě Ǻģě ǿf Čŀįmǻțě Mįģřǻțįǿň
CO
Ěxțřěmě ẅěǻțħěř đųě țǿ čŀįmǻțě čħǻňģě đįșpŀǻčěđ mǿřě țħǻň ǻ mįŀŀįǿň pěǿpŀě fřǿm țħěįř ħǿměș ŀǻșț ỳěǻř. İț čǿųŀđ șǿǿň řěșħǻpě țħě ňǻțįǿň 2/27/2018
Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration - Rolling Stone
Bỳ Jěff Ģǿǿđěŀŀ 2 đǻỳș ǻģǿ
" 3.5°C "
Ňěẅș
Earth Day
Mųșįč
Pǿŀįțįčș
ȚV
Mǿvįěș
Vįđěǿ Ģǻměș
Țħě Șǿųŀ-Čřųșħįňģ Ŀěģǻčỳ ǿf Bįŀŀỳ Ģřǻħǻm
Met
Mǿřě
Țẅįțčħ'ș Mǿșț Ňǿțǿřįǿųș Čħǻmpįǿň Ǿpěňș Ųp Ǻbǿųț Fǻmįŀỳ,...
İň 'Ǻ Mǿ
Ẅěŀčǿmě țǿ țħě Ǻģě ǿf Čŀįmǻțě Mįģřǻțįǿň
PEOPLE’S CLIMATE MARCH
SENATOR INHOFE THROWS SNOWBALL
Vįđěǿ
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“This blue planet is our only home.”
2013 #OCCUPYSANDY PEOPLE’S CLIMATE MARCH
GOT IT
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/welcome-to-the-age-of-climate-migration-w516974
D.C.
Mayor Di Blasio announces $5 billion divesment of city pension funds in fossil fuel industry; suing 5 major companies for billions in damages to pay for efforts to cope with the effects of cc
AIR POLLUTION KILLS 4,400 IN CHINA EVERYDAY Berkeley Earth report
400,000 people in NYC; largest yet
Beijing smog by Zou Yi
Leo di Caprio
“Climate change is real. It is the most urgent threat facing our entire species... we need to speak for the voices drowned out by the politics of greed.”
1/24
TRUMP PULLS OUT OF PARIS ACCORD
2018
CLIMATE MANIPULATION?
“We’ve ended the war on beautiful, clean coal."
Obama
“We must stop this madness”
“The shift to a cleaner energy economy won’t happen overnight, + it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye + ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.”
" GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION " is a better term
CIEL UNCOVERS DOCUMENTS FROM OIL COMPANIES Center for International Environmental Law “What did they know? When did they know it? And what did they do about it?
SUE EPA FOR FAILING TO INCLUDE CAFO’S Humane Society, Center for Food Safety, + Sierra Club take action against ammonia, methane, + other gases caused by Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations
It’s just been announced that a second, brand new coal mine where they’re going to take out clean coal — meaning they’re taking out coal, they’re going to clean it.”
NYC DIVEST
Health and Science has moved! You can find new stories here. SCIENCE
THE STATE OF THE UNIVERSE.
SEPT. 6 2017 12:37 PM
Why Are FEMA’s Flood Maps So Horribly Flawed?
IPCC REPORTS MORE CONFUSING Holdren, Science Advisor to Obama
Study in Nature magazine; "Conjunction Dysfunction" in The Economist
Rothschilds are “controlling the climate to create natural disasters they can pay for to own the cities.”
They fail to take climate change into account, and they’re hard and expensive to maintain. Plus, they can be manipulated by local governments. By Ramin Skibba
Based on historical flooding + development. Local governments shrunk flood zones to lower insurance rates
Flooded homes near Lake Houston following Hurricane Harvey on Aug. 30 in Houston. Win McNamee/Getty Images
L
ast week, Hurricane Harvey devastated the city of Houston. The scale of the tragedy shocked even the National Weather Service. But perhaps the most
West Closure Complex, largest pump station in the world, $1.1 billion
"350 miles of levees, flood walls, gates, and pumps... Experts say that is not enough"
0.00
0.00
5.10
1.80
1.80
4.80
5.5 5.10
TYNDALL
4.80
Proved the Greenhouse
Gas Effect
4.50 1.50
1.50
4.50 4.20
1.20
9 MILLION AUTOMOBILES
4.20
1.20
FIRST OIL
3.90 3.60
0.90
3.30
3.90
0.90
George Bissell + Edwin L. Drake made the first successful use of a drilling rig on a well
3.0 0.60
0.60
3.60
2.70 2.40
0.30
3.30
0.30
2.10
5.5
5.10
0.00
( PA RTS PER M ILLION )
0.00
CONCENTR ATION OF CO2
CONCENTRATION OF METHANE GAS ( PARTS PER BILLION )
1.80 0.00
3.0
5.5
2.70
1.20
0.60
2.40
0.30 0.00
Beginning of “the end of the World”
1.50
0.90 5.10
JAMES WATT INVENTS THE STEAM ENGINE
0.00
BENJAMIN FRANKLIN Ben Franklin tied a key to a kite string during a thunderstorm, and proved that static electricity and lightning were the same thing
WEATHER RACE FOURIER
Discovered the GHGE
" GREENHOUSE GAS EFFECT "
" SM OG " Coined by Dr. Henry Antoine Des Voeux "Fog and Smoke" Public Health Congress Daily Graphic newspaper: "He said it required no science to see that there was something produced in great cities which was not found in the country, and that was smoky fog, or what was known as 'smog.'"
POUILLET
AUTOMOBILES
Provided further evidence for GHGE
Ford's Model T
VOLTA
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK
1.80
5.10
1750
Industrial Revolution
Alessandro Volta invented the first electric battery
4.80 1.50
4.50 4.20 3.90 3.60
SCIENCE GEOENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES OUTERSPACE FRACKING TOBACCO
Max Moinian 180606
0.90
3.0
0.60
2.70 2.40
0.30
2.10
0.00
(CELCIUS )
( MILIM ETERS)
1.80
SU R FACE TEM PER ATU R E RISE
4.80
Rural electrification projects
Rural electrification projects
CALENDAR REPORT
FRACKING
The Artificial Production of CO2 and its Influence on Temperature; documented a decades-long increase in global temperatures and correlated that increase with rising fossil fuel use
MILITARY MESSING WITH THE CLOUDS?
Muir takes Roosevelt on a tour; Sierra Club successfully lobbies Yosemite as second national park
"imitate battle in order to create rain" Theory emerged after Civil War that military was causing rain
1.50 1.20 0.90 0.60 0.30 0.00
PANAMA CANAL AIR CONDITIONING W. Carrier invents electric air conditioning
3.30
SEA LEV EL RISE
frame your own narrative: constructing risk & climate
1.20
5.10
ALL USA FARMS HAVE ELECTRICITY
0.00 5.5
5.5
1/2 USA FARMS HAVE ELECTRICITY
ARRHENIUS
CO2 X 2 = 4 - 6 OC RISE
WRIGHT BROTHERS MAKE FIRST FIGHT
REFRIDGERATOR A. Goss invents electric cooler
TURING INVENTS THE FLIP-FLOP CIRCUIT
SURFACE COAL MINING With auger machines
HUBBERT THEORY OF GROUNDWATER MOTION "Hydrodynamic traps" Flowing groundwater could push oil into unexpected places Exploration: not horizontal but on an angle Broke consensus that oil could be trapped only by a rock barrier Important Ecology discoveries through oil initiatives??
SIMULATION MODELS Computers begin to predict weather
Hubbert also pioneered using electrical methods to map faults and to locate groundwater aquifers.
GE INJECTS DRY ICE INTO CLOUDS
Dr. Schaefer; used planes to inject and "trick a cloud to glaciate;" Causes snow near Mount Greylock lawyers silence the bragging out of fear of property lawsuits
HENRY FORD DIES Enormous funding to UN programs through the Ford Foundartion
FISK MAP
FORD FOUNDATION
Gaither's report on what to do with the world's most wellendowed foundation
Shows meandering nature of the Mississippi River
PLASS
VANGAURD FAILURE
Proved that adding CO2 increases temperature
SCRIPPS INSTITUTE Hans Suess study shows naturally occurring carbon-14 in the atmosphere "diluted" by depleted carbon-12 derived from fossil fuels; provided the first clear proof that, as hypothesized by Arrhenius and theorized by Callendar, CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels was accumulating in the atmosphere.
Eisenhower
Eisenhower: “Lyndon Johnson can keep his head in the stars if he wants. I’m going to keep my feet on the ground.” But Democratic efforts succeeded in shifting public opinion, as Americans came to see the satellite as a symbol of the Soviet threat. “It’s after it’s made into a political issue that people start to attach fear to it.”
Allowed private ownership of nuclear reactors.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists Los Angeles, CA Shell research for the masses
1953
USSR launches first satellite
"Except for Pearl Harbor, no single event in history assaulted America's image of itself as did Sputnik. So rudely did the 184-pound sphere undermine the idea that the USA was the world's leader in military, economic and technological might that it changed the way Americans did research, supported universities and taught their children."
For any geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve
REVELLE FACTOR Greenhouse Effect for oceans: the oceans will not absorb the excess CO2 “the only one to stress the growing quantity of CO2 contributed by our burning of fossil fuels, + to call attention to the fact that it might cause global warming over time.”
Begins to record ozone
GAITHER REPORT Predicted that total oil reserves in the USA was between 150 -200 billion barrels
Shippingport reactor in Pennsylvania was the first nuclear power plant to provide electricity to customers in the USA
Web of observing, processing, communicating, and predicting
CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
Establishes, NACA dissolves
BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY
NUCLEAR POWER
WORLD WEATHER WATCH
Project Design Flood shows how system controls water flow
Based on the observation that oil is finite
Peak oil in the USA would occur between 1966 - 1971
NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM
Johnson
USA dominating space “would have the power to control the earth’s weather, to cause drought and flood, to change the tides and raise the levels of the sea, to divert the Gulf Stream and change temperate climates to frigid.”
" PE AK OIL " Geologist M. King Hubbert
Coined by Garrett Hardin in Science Magazine
FIRST SPACEWALK
SPUTNIK
Bell Labs invents the first solar cell.
HUBBERT UNVEILS HYRDRODYNAMIC TRAPS THEORY AT CONFERENCE
“Until publication of Silent Spring by Rachel Carson, people were generally unaware of the toxicity of pesticides.”
“There’s no reason for hand wringing, just because the Russians got up there first.”
Gaither, RAND / Ford
Human welfare = spread of liberal democratic principles; report stated that their purpose was to “form a broadbrush opinion of the relative value of various active and passive measures to protect the civilian populations in case of nuclear attack and its aftermath
KEELING CURVE
Record of CO2 Concentrations in the Atmosphere
"The colossal irony of our time, of course, is that the scientific knowledge that has made utopia possible has also made world suicide a distinctly plausible alternative"
POLIO VACCINE
ASTRONAUT JOHN GLENN ORBITS THE EARTH
FORD FOUNDATION "We believe in foreign aid on every ground — of humanity, of peace, and of our own American interest"
USGS geologist Alfred D. Zapp calculated that USA may hold a total of 590 bbl, nearly four times the amount Hubbert believed existed
ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND
" SPACE RACE "
OPERATION POPEYE
SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN Publishes Plass’ findings Carbon Dioxide + Climate “long-term temperature records will rise continuously as long as man consumes the earth’s reserves of fossil fuels”
“Scientists turned the climate record upside down.” Subsidizes development in floodplains
"We choose to go to the Moon." To Congress: " I believe we possess all the resources and talents necessary. But the facts of the matter are that we have never made the national decisions or marshaled the national resources required for such leadership. We have never specified long-range goals on an urgent time schedule, or managed our resources and our time so as to insure their fulfillment."
Non-profit formed by scientists to advocate against DDT
-> 1972 Vietnam cloud seeding mission to cause monsoon and destroy Vietkong trails
800,000 years of data; measures temperature, atmospheric circulation strength, precipitation, ocean volume, atmospheric dust, volcanic eruptions, solar variability, marine biological productivity, sea ice and desert extent, and forest fires
1972
0.00
5.10
0.00
SURFACE MINING CONTROL + RECLAMATION ACT
5.5 5.10
1.80
1.80
4.80
1.50
1.50
4.50
Reduce the environmental impact of surface mining; required surface mines no longer being used to be “reclaimed” or restored to their natural state.
4.80 4.50 4.20
1.20
3.90
4.20
1.20
3.30
3.90
0.90
0.60
3.60
2.70
3.30
0.30
2.10
5.10
0.00
( PA RTS PER M ILLION )
5.5
3.0
0.00
CONCENTR ATION OF CO2
CONCENTRATION OF METHANE GAS ( PARTS PER BILLION )
1.80 0.00
1.50
BLUE MARBLE
Theorize that chloroflurocarbons deplete the ozone layer; public responds, demands action ... 1985 British Antarctic Survey reports major depletion (trend began in 1977)
0.90 0.60
2.40
5.10
0.30 0.00
0.00
1.80
5.10 4.80
1.50
1972 LIMITS TO GROWTH
4.50 4.20
Max Moinian 180606
0.90
3.60
Dr. Martin Cooper (USA) invented the first portable handset phone.
3.0
0.60
2.70 2.40
0.30
2.10
0.00
(CELCIUS )
1.80
SU R FACE TEM PER ATU R E RISE
( MILIM ETERS) SEA LEV EL RISE
“What’s the use of having developed a science well enough Carl Sagan to make predictions "Our lovely blue if, in the end, all planet, the Earth, we’re willing to do is the only home we is stand around and know. Venus is too hot. wait for them to Mars is too cold." come true?”
Philippines explosion leaves a mushroom cloud in the stratosphere; deposited 20 million tons of SO2. Hansen's group saw an opportunity in this "natural experiment," a strict test of computer models. Calculations predicted roughly 1/2 0C average global cooling, concentrated in the higher northern latitudes and lasting a couple of years. This is exactly what happened
1.50 1.20 0.90 0.60 0.30 0.00
Given “business as usual” the limits to growth would become evident by 2072: “sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.” Existing trends could be altered to achieve sustainable ecological + economic stability. The sooner the better.
CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ADDRESS CONGRESS
BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY
Scelbi, designed by Wadsworth + Findley (USA), came with 1K of programmable memory, with an additional 15K of memory available.
PORTABLE PHONE
3.30
4.80
MOUNT PINATUBO ERUPTS
Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland, atmospheric chemist
PERSONAL COMPUTER
3.90
SCIENCE GEOENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES OUTERSPACE FRACKING TOBACCO
frame your own narrative: constructing risk & climate
1.20
5.10
Hans-Josef Fell, city council member in Hammelburg, Germany, slips an unnoticed bill (during reunification) supporting wind turbines.
0.00 5.5
5.5
CFC’S DEPLETE THE OZONE LAYER Molina + Sherwood, Nature magazine; presentation at American Chemical Society
1.20
2.70
5.5
“FEED-IN” TARIFF
George Mitchell tests drilling into the Barnett Shale ; rather than extracting above + below it
Dr. Bernie Vonnegut and others at GE patent cloud seeding with silver iodide, publish report in Science magazine
2.40 0.30
SHALE FRACKING IN TEXAS
FREEZING NUCLEANT
3.0 0.60
Global climate data; combine simulation + observation
EXXON SCIENTIST WARNS OF GLOBAL WARMING
3.60 0.90
RENALYSIS MODELS
Reports “severe” ozone depletion
" Our intelligence and our technology have given us the power to affect the climate. How will we use this power? Are we willing to tolerate ignorance and complacency in matters that affect the entire human family? Do we value short-term advantages above the welfare of the Earth? Or will we think on longer time scales, with concern for our children and our grandchildren, to understand and protect the complex life-support systems of our planet? The Earth is a tiny and fragile world. It needs to be cherished." "Even a 1 or 2 degree rise in the global temperature can have catastrophic consequences... Our major cities are polluted with noxious molecules. We do not understand the long- term effects of our course of action." Ramanathan report estimates contribution from miscellaneous gases — methane, N2O, and ozone along with CFCs — produced by industry + agriculture; these gases might contribute as much as 40% of warming caused by gases of human origin (with CO2 responsible for the other 60%)
UNFCCC Developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to “a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
Dr. James Hansen, NASA
“It’s happening now.” MONTREAL PROTOCOL On Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer International treaty, signed by all nations to ban CFCs
MARS DIRECT Proposal for a human mission to Mars
PALE BLUE DOT
SLR
DOHA AMENDMENT Image of the Earth from 6 billion km, by Voyager 1; taken at Carl Sagan's request
FRAC ACT ATTEMPTED FOR CONGRESS
The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and why We Must
NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
EPA LETS FRACKING FLOURISH
Awarded to Al Gore + IPCC
ICELAND ACHIEVES 85% RENEWABLE 100% renewable for electricty, 85% renewable for primary energy (transportation/heating)
CONSENSUS Scientific community reaches a “strong consensus” about climate change (Oreskes)
100,000 SOLAR ROOFS PROGRAM
PHILLIP MORRIS LOBBIES THROUGH NON-PROFIT
"a not-for-profit organization advocating the use of sound science in public policy decision making"
“EPA does not regulate – and does not believe it is legally required to regulate – the hydraulic fracturing of methane gas production wells under" the Safe Drinking Water Act Browner says there was “no evidence” of hydraulic fracturing contaminating ground water
1993 George Mitchell "The Father of Fracking"
Dr. Fred Singer
MITCHELL PROVES $$$ IN FRACKING Dr. Fred Seitz
George Mitchell's shale gas wells, aided by the injection of a water, sand + chemical mixture established that fracking could prove financially viable over the long term
LIMITS TO GROWTH MODEL CORRECT? Ground Water Protection Council + Interstate Oil + Gas Compact Commission; Searchable database for wells + additives
EPA FRAUD STUDY
ENERGIEWENDE
Study concludes that the injection of hydraulic fracturing fluids into underground wells does not present a threat to drinking water.
Germany launches program to achieve GHG reduction of 80 - 95%, and 60% renewable energy by 2050. Nuclear phaseout by 2022.
Whistleblower later charges that the study’s conclusions were FRACKING RULED TO unsupported and that some members of the study’s peer FALL UNDER SDWA review panel had conflicts of Hydraulic fracturing constitutes interest. “underground injection” and falls under the regulation
SPACEX TO MARS “The phrase ‘global warming’ was something of a misnomer... suggests that the phenomenon is something that is uniform around the world, that it’s all about temperature, and that it’s gradual.”
An advocate of nuclear power in the 50's + 60's, Hubbert came to emphasize solar power as a viable solution to human energy needs late in his career By the end of the twentieth century most petroleum experts accepted Hubbert’s contention that historical discovery rates produce more accurate resource estimates than volumetric yield methods, for the USA. Hubbert gained folk hero status among conservationists who believed looming near-term exhaustion of oil supplies would deeply challenge technological civilization.
“Spreading out may be the only thing that saves us from ourselves.”
FRACFOCUS.ORG
Germany
Carol Browner EPA Director, 1993 - 2001
MARS?
"Business-as-usual" scenario produced about forty years ago aligns well with historical data" according to Graham Turner's report "Is Global Collapse Imminent?"
Making Life Multiplanetary Elon Musk announces the first cargo mission to be in 2022 “You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great - and that’s what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It’s about believing in the future and thinking that the future will be better than the past. And I can’t think of anything more exciting than going out there and being among the stars.”
CLEAN POWER PLAN
REX TILLERSON
LED LIGHTS FRACKING EXEMPT FROM REGULATION Fracking begins at Marsellus Shale, PA
WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL REPORT Nearly 40 countries located in geothermal-rich territory, mostly in Africa, Latin America and the Pacific, could produce all of the electricity they need using geothermal energy.
AIR POLLUTION KILLS 7 MILLION ANNUALLY World Health Organization
Mitchell sold his company for $3.5 billion
TOYOTA INTRODUCES THE PRIUS First mass-market electric hybrid car
"NO PEAK OIL FOR AMERICA OR FOR THE WORLD"
2018
CO2 400
parts per
Methane 1,8
parts
0.00
5.10
0.00
FLOOD CONTROL ACT
5.5 5.10
1.80
4.80
1.80
Sets jurisdictions for Native American tribes in present day Dakotas, Montana, Wyoming, and Nebraska
4.80 4.50
1.50
1.50
Declared flood control to be acceptable federal government activity + authorized more than 200 construction projects;
TREATY OF FORT LARAMIE
4.50 4.20
1.20
3.90
4.20
1.20
0.90
3.30
3.90
0.90
3.0 0.60
0.60
3.60
2.70 2.40
0.30
3.30
0.30
2.10
SOLDIERS PRAY FOR WEATHER
DISSOLUTION OF STANDARD OIL
3.60
Army Corps of Engineers, located within the Department of Defense, is the nation's oldest water resource agency, dealing primarily with the construction and maintenance of navigable streams and harbor for civilian and military construction.
MANHATTAN PROJECT
Army Corps + Dept of Agriculture shared responsibility for these activities
OPERATION CROSSROADS
General Patton distributed prayer cards to the army to pray for the rain to stop
Suprene Court rule; in violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act
A series of 23 nuclear detonations by the USA from 1946 - 1958 at seven test sites on the reef, sea, in the air and underwater
SHELL OPENS BELLAIRE RESEARCH CENTER
"BAKER"
5.5
5.10
0.00
3.0
0.00 ( PA RTS PER M ILLION )
0.00
CONCENTR ATION OF CO2
CONCENTRATION OF METHANE GAS ( PARTS PER BILLION )
1.80 1.50 1.20
2.70
5.5
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
0.90 0.60
2.40
5.10
M. King Hubbert, associate director
0.30 0.00
0.00
5.5 5.10
1775
ROCKEFELLER FOUNDS STANDARD OIL
4.80 1.50
4.50 4.20 3.90 3.60
POLITICS THINK-TANKS ORGANIZATIONS AGENCIES IPCC FF-INDUSTRY 0.90
3.30 3.0
0.60
COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY
FLOOD CONTROL ACT
SMOKE & FUMES COMMITTEE
first use of costbenefit analysis as decisionmaking tool; authorizes physical structures as flood control means
Western Oil and Gas Association meets in Los Angeles to discuss growing public concern about smog; form committee
OIL IN TEXAS + PERSIAN GULF New sources begin era of cheap energy
The first coal-fired electric generating station, developed by Thomas Edison, went into operation in NYC to supply FEDERAL POWER electricity for household lights.
COMMISSION
2.70
0.30
0.00
5.10
4.80
2.40
CLOUD SEEDING IN TEXAS DROUGHT
2.10
Department of Agriculture attempts to save crops by controlling the weather
(CELCIUS )
1.80
SU R FACE TEM PER ATU R E RISE
( MILIM ETERS) SEA LEV EL RISE
frame your own narrative: constructing risk & climate
1.20
5.5
allowed the Army Corps to build multiple-purpose reservoirs, mainly for irrigation, navigation, water supply, hydropower, and recreation
"ABLE"
0.00
1.80
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Shell Exploration + Production Research Laboratory established to to use geophysical instruments and theories to more accurately predict undiscovered oil reserves and to better exploit existing wells
1.50 1.20
STANDING ROCK SIOUX RESERVATION Established as six smaller reservations
0.90 0.60 0.30 0.00
RIVERS + HARBORS ACT Required that construction plans and specific dam sites be approved by the Army Corps of Engineers, who mainly built levees in the 20th c.
"You can buy scientific progress by the tankful" AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE
SHELL WORRIED ABOUT OIL SCARCITY AFTER WW2 Shell Exploration + Production Research Laboratory established to to use geophysical instruments and theories to more accurately predict undiscovered oil reserves and to better exploit existing wells M. King Hubbert, associate director
"would fund scientific research into smog and other air pollution issues and, significantly, use that research to inform and shape public opinion about environmental issues. The express goal of their collaboration was to use science and public skepticism to prevent environmental regulations they deemed hasty, costly, and unnecessary."
HENRY FORD DIES
Enormous funding to UN programs through the Ford Foundartion
FORD FOUNDATION
US DEPT OF AGRICULTURE ADVERTISES DDT
Gaither's report on what to do with the world's most wellendowed foundation
CASTLE BRAVO NO MORE DDT
MOYNIHAN MEMO
"By 1951 it became apparent that the oil industry would continue to be blamed for the bulk of the air pollution" what radiation fallout looks like on a human, 38 days after the blast
THE SEVEN SISTERS Consortium for Iran
Plaeides: Seven daughters of the titan Atlas
1952
FORD FOUNDATION
to President Nixon “A problem that can seize the imagination of persons normally indifferent to projects of apocalyptic change” “Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”
WEATHER SATELLITE
PROJECT ICEWORM
Johnson
SCIENCE ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
Top secret US Army program during the Cold War to build a network of mobile nuclear missile launch sites under the Greenland ice sheet. To study the feasibility of working under the ice, a highly publicized “cover” project, known as Camp Century, was launched in 1960.
"Will permit man to determine the world's cloud layer + ultimately to control the weather. And he who controls the weather will control the world."
to U.S. President “pollutants have altered on a global scale the CO2 content of the air” Keeling + Revelle contribute “through this worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiement”
JONES REPORT
AGENT ORANGE
DRILL ICE CORE
NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT Requires that government agencies evaluate environmental impacts of major federal actions (like authorizing oil + gas drilling on public land)
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL ACT
OPEC ESTABLISHED
“ARE WE RETROGRESSING IN SCIENCE?”
Limits discharges into rivers,lakes + streams; Goals: 1983 water that is “fishable + swimmable” 1985 zero discharge of pollutants END OF VIETNAM WAR
WOMEN IN THE ARCTIC SAFE DRINKING WATER ACT
US Congress lifts ban on women working in Antarctica “an incursion of females into the largest male sanctuary remaining on this planet” Walter Sullivan NYT
Camp Century, Greeland; 100,000 years of history The Earth as an Archive
Monsanto herbicide sprayed over the jungles of Vietnam + Korea to remove trees and dense tropical foliage that provided enemy cover; continued until 1986
CLEAN WATER ACT
New standards and regulations to protect underground sources of drinking water
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
FORD FOUNDATION
NOAA
"We believe in foreign aid on every ground — of humanity, of peace, and of our own American interest"
ROBINSON REPORT
OPEC announces will not ship oil to the USA + Europe
military-industrialacademic complex
ATOMIC ENERGY ACT
M K Hubbert, Science Magazine Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela
Reflects emerging criticism of military funding for science in the Vietnam War era; warns that available natural resources would not allow unchecked exponential growth of the human population
GAITHER REPORT NO PEAK OIL FOR USA? Gaither, RAND / Ford Human welfare = spread of liberal democratic principles;OIL report stated their purpose+was IN that TEXAS to “form a broadbrush opinion of the relative value ofPERSIAN various active and passive measures GULF to protect the civilian populations in case of nuclear attack and its aftermath
John Lindsay inserts a Carson’s New Yorker piece into the Congressional Record
OIL EMBARGO
ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION Stanford Research Institute reported to the American Petroleum Institute about atmospheric pollutants of interest to the industry.
“Could melt polar ice caps + innundate coastal regions”
USA OIL PRODUCTION PEAKS 9.6 million barrels/day X
CLEAN AIR ACT 1970
FLOOD DISASTER PROTECTION ACT Flood insurance mandatory for properties within Special Flood Hazard Areas (within 100-year-flood boundary)
1975
0.00
0.00
5.10
1.80
1.80
4.80
1.50
1.50
4.50
5.5 5.10
Federal Emergency Management Agency
4.80
NATIONAL ACID PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT PROGRAM
4.50
EXXON RESEARCH
4.20 1.20
4.20
1.20
Outfitted a supertanker with custom instruments; mission to sample CO2 in the air + ocean along a route from Gulf of Mexico to Persian Gulf.
3.90 3.60
0.90
3.30
3.90
0.90
3.0 0.60
0.60
3.60
2.70 2.40
0.30
3.30
0.30
2.10
5.5
5.10
0.00
3.0
0.00 ( PA RTS PER M ILLION )
0.00
CONCENTR ATION OF CO2
CONCENTRATION OF METHANE GAS ( PARTS PER BILLION )
1.80 1.50 1.20
2.70
5.5
0.90 0.60
2.40
5.10
0.30 0.00
0.00
Dr. James Black "In the first place, there is general scientific agreement that the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels,"
30 SOLAR PANELS INSTALLED ON WHITE HOUSE
"Present thinking holds that man has a time window of 5 - 10 years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical."
1.80
5.10 4.80
1.50
4.50
1975
OIL EMBARGO President Carter resorts to U.S. coal
3.90 3.60
POLITICS THINK-TANKS ORGANIZATIONS AGENCIES IPCC FF-INDUSTRY
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0.90
3.30
CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE RESEARCH PROGRAM
2.70 2.40
0.30
2.10
0.00
(CELCIUS )
1.80
SU R FACE TEM PER ATU R E RISE
( MILIM ETERS)
CLEAN AIR ACT
Unexpected price collapse of oil; cut its staff deeply to save money, including many working on climate
Amendment VI addresses Ozone
WORLD BANK WANTS TO SEND POLLUTION TO AFRICA
"I've always thought that countries in Africa are vastly under polluted; their air quality is probably inefficiently low compared to Los Angeles ... just between you and me, Lawrence Summers, CLEAN COAL Chief Economist of the shouldn't the World Bank World Bank TECHNOLOGY be encouraging more migration ACT of the dirty industries to the IPCC REPORT 1 Least Developed Countries?"
EXXON REPORT: CO 2 "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT
NORTHERN BORDER PIPELINE Is built to carry natural gas from Canada to the midwest
1.50 1.20
Dr. Harold Weinberg
Exxon scientist proposed worldwide campaign, did not materialize
"Grandfather of Climate Science"
0.90 0.60 0.30 0.00
BRUNDTLAND COMISSION
REAGAN ELECTED, TAKES THEM
RAISE DRILLING PLATFORMS in response to SLR predictions
PHILLIP MORRIS LOBBIES THROUGH NON-PROFIT
in aerosol spray cans
3.0
0.60
SEA LEV EL RISE
frame your own narrative: constructing risk & climate
1.20
4.80
EXXON SCALES BACK ON CLIMATE RESEARCH
EPA RESTRICTS USE OF CFC’S
4.20
5.10
Founded by the UNEP + WMO
President Carter
"Today, in directly harnessing the power of the Sun, we're taking the energy RESOURCE that God gave us, the CONSERVATION + most renewable energy RECOVERY ACT that we will ever see, and using it to replace our Sets standards for the dwindling supplies of fossil fuels." handling of hazardous wastes.
COPING WITH CATASTROPHE
0.00 5.5
5.5
EARTH SUMMIT
Rio de Janeiro ; UNCED Conference
Dr. Wallace Broecker
Columbia University professor collaborated with Exxon on research
"a not-for-profit organization advocating the use of sound science in public policy decision making"
President Reagan
SUPERFUND ACT Establishes a governmental response to releases of hazardous substances into the environment + holds polluting industries liable for cleanup costs. Natural gas and oil are not considered hazardous under this law, making it more difficult for the EPA to hold some oil + gas operations liable.
"Models are controversial"
From space we see a world (big scale) that can’t accomodate human activities (many small scales) which “changes planetary systems fundamentally” Dr. Fred Singer
EMERGENCY PLANNING + COMMUNITY RIGHT TO KNOW ACT
The gas platform "Troll" is the world's largest concrete construction, standing 1,548.6 feet high. In this 1995 photo, a boat tows the platform from Stavanger in Western Norway to its position in the North Sea. (Associated Press)
Requires certain industries to report to EPA on storage / release / transfer of significant levels of toxic substances. But much of the oil and gas industry has not been required by the E.P.A. to follow the law’s reporting requirements.
Dr. Roger Cohen Our "ethical responsibility is to permit the publication of our research in the scientific literature. Indeed, to do otherwise would be a breach of Exxon's public position and ethical credo on honesty and integrity."
By the late 1980s, calls by scientists and environmentalists to limit fossil fuel emissions were gaining traction. A growing scientific consensus was emerging, suggesting a link between climate change and carbon dioxide emissions, and a concern that those changes could cause global upheaval — from warming temperatures to rising sea levels and melting glaciers. Governments across the globe took heed. In 1988, Democratic Sen. Timothy Wirth of Colorado called a congressional hearing on the topic, and James Hansen, a NASA scientist, asserted “with 99% confidence” that global warming was occurring. That same year, the United Nations formed the Intergovernmental
Dr. Fred Seitz
Panel on Climate Change to examine its future impact. Facing a growing environmental and political movement, a collection of energy companies, primarily from the coal sector, created the Global Climate Coalition to fight impending climate change regulations.
OIL IMPORTS EXCEED PRODUCTION For the first time, USA imported more oil + refined products from other countries than it produced — owing to growing demand + declining U.S. production
USA / CHINA “Let’s face it: The science of climate change is too uncertain to mandate a plan of action that could plunge economies into turmoil...
Announce partnership + aims for post-2020 (26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025)
NFIP Govt report estimates that repetitiveloss properties cost $200 million annually
STUDY ON LANGUAGE OF IPCC REPORTS
Scientists cannot predict with certainty if temperatures will increase, by how much and where changes will occur.”
" THREAT MULTIPLIER "
Anthropogenic Climate Change Waves and Storms of the North Atlantic Group forms by oil + insurance companies, and governments, to investigate CC re extraction sites
PENTAGON THINKING ABOUT WHEN OIL RUNS OUT Report: An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security
IPCC REPORT 2 "The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate"
1994
“Climate models are currently unsuitable for making national assessments.”
KYOTO PROTOCOL 193 Nations agreed to reduce GHG's Increased public awareness of scientific research Cap + Trade Program market-based mechanism; industries allocated allowances limiting them to a certain amount of GHG emissions each year
“Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves.”
BUSH PULLS OUT OF KYOTO PROTOCOL OIL CONSUMPTION 19.7 million barrels per day Leading suppliers: Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria
IPCC REPORT 3
“What can you do about it.. there is not a model today that is comepetent.”
MORATORIUM ON DEEPWATER DRILLING
..... rise of Ethanol
Following disaster; hold for six months.
UNUIT PETITION
CO2 400
parts pe
Methane 1,8
IPCC REPORT 5
Press release: Acknowledge the Paris Agreement, support “revenue-neutral carbon tax,” and “market-based” policy options that “support innovation and technology breakthroughs reqiured to address climate change risks.”
“We are people of the land, ice, snow, and animals. Climate change has become the ultimate threat to Inuit culture.”
1 use methods informed by climate science 2 build 2 feet above 100-year flood elevation 3 build to 500-year flood elevation
ENERGY POLICY ACT Promoted the use of coal through clean coal technologies.
IPCC 4
features the Hockey Stick Graph
CC is the greatest, widest market failure ever Benefits of strong, early action outweigh the costs of inaction
RICK SCOTT
“EXXONMOBIL’S PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE CHANGE”
FEDERAL FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT STANDARD
STERN REVIEW
"Let's agree there's a lot we really don't know about how climate will change in the 21st century and beyond"
PARIS AGREEMENT
Unuit people file petition against USA claiming CC violates rights
3 ways to address risk in floodplains:
“Warming is unequivocal ...very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
EXXON MOBIL
Chairman of Exxon
G7 nations pledge to phase out fossil fuels by end of 21st c.
par
Explained climate change to a Military Advisory Board '“She was the one who brought the generals and admirals around to seeing that environmental security was connected to national security”
Required increased use of renewable fuels for transportation and new measures to reduce pollution from gasoline + diesel.
LEE RAYMOND
Ordered to pay $93 million for poisoning residents
Dr. Jon Sterman asks math + science graduate students at MIT to read a 3 paragraph summary from report; 84% comprehended incorrectly
GCC DISBANDS
Detect Climate Change
SLR
MONSANTO SUED FOR AGENT ORANGE
Discloses risks of CC to shareholders
Florida Governer bans all departments from using the terms “climate change” “global warming” and “sustainability”
HOUSE OF REPS AGREE ON ANTHROPOGENIC CC Vote 240 to 184 that CC is happening, "largely by human activity"
EXXON & RUSSIA OIL EXPLORATION DEAL Exploration of Black and Kata seas, Arctic Ocean, becomes possible becomes of melting glaciers; partner with Rosneft in return for giving the Russian company minority stakes in Exxon projects in Texas, the Gulf of Mexico
2006
2015
CANADA SKEWED MAPS OF ARTIC Government map shows more Artic sea ice. “In reality, climate change has been gnawing away at the planet’s permanent polar ice cap and it is projected to continue doing so. It’s a subtle way, on a map, to change the perspective on the way something is viewed.”
$687 MILLION DROUGHT RELIEF $549 million to fund recycled, stormwater, + groundwater programs; $25.3 million to food assistance $21 million to household assistance
#E XXON K NEW
2018
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Cooper, L. David, “Panorama of the Old Testement.”
actor
After the Flood has said: I will wipe out everything” act
Gustave Doré, The Destruction of Leviathan, 1865. Engraving.
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(Top) Francois de Nome, The Fall of Atlantis. c. 1600. (Bottom) Simon de Myle, Noah’s Ark on the Mount Ararat. 1570.
Seeing the Earth Official images released by NASA.
1935
1947
1966
1968
FROM BALLOON
FROM ROCKET
FROM THE MOON
EARTHRISE
Explorer II
Surface from V2 Rocket
Lunar Orbiter 1
Apollo 8
22 km
160 km
380,000 km
380,000 km
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1972
1990
2003
2013
BLUE MARBLE
PALE BLUE DOT
FROM MARS
SELFIE
Apollo 17
Voyager 1
NASA Global Surveyor
NASA Mike Hopkins
29,000 km
6 billion km
139,000,000 km
20,000 km
The first and only full photograph of Earth
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Digital Image, Mehitabel Glenhaber. MIT Newspaper, Spring 2018.
NASA. Carl Sagan stands with a model of the Viking Mars lander in California’s Death Valley.
Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there--on a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam. The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that, in glory and triumph, they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of this pixel on the scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner, how frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the Universe, are challenged by this point of pale light. Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand. It has been said that astronomy is a humbling and character-building experience. There is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known.
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NASA / JPL. Pale Blue Dot. From the Voyager 1 Spacecraft on February 14, 1990
Pale Blue Dot Carl Sagan
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Screen Shot 2018-04-19 at 4.13.11 PM “Journeys in Space and Time” of Carl Sagan’s 1980’s series, Cosmos. Episode one found on YouTube.
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Advertisement, US Department of Agriculture, (1947).
Rachel Carson Rachel Carson was an American marine biologist, author, and conservationist whose book Silent Spring and other writings are credited with advancing the global environmental movement.
Carson, R. (1962). Silent Spring / Boston: Houghton Mifflin: Cambridge.
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Carson starts the book with f i c t i o n
"What could happen to the USA if chemical defenses against pests were lost."
“We need a Bill of Rights against the 20th c. prisoners of the human race” - William O. Douglas, Supreme Court Justice Silent Spring is also published in the New Yorker, Audobon, + selected for Book-ofthe-Month-Club
MONSANTO
“On camera, Carson’s careful way of speaking dispelled any notions that she was a shrew or some kind of zealot.”
“The real threat to man is insects taking over”
“Our heedless and destructive acts enter into the vast cycles of the earth and in time return to bring hazard to ourselves.”
televised
Dr. Robert WhiteStevens, Rutgers University chemist and pesticide industry spokesman
EPA forms, calls itself the “extended shadow of Rachel Carson”
CARSON TESTIFIES BEFORE THE SENATE
CARSON + OPPONENT ON CBS REPORTS
1962
1963
1964
1970
JFK SAYS WHITE HOUSE IS READING “MS. CARSON’S BOOK”
CLEAN AIR ACT
CONGRESSIONAL RECORD
EARTH DAY
First federal legislation for air pollution control; program and research into techniques for monitoring and controlling air pollution
CARSON DIES OF BREAST CANCER
“Until publication of Silent Spring by Rachel Carson, people were generally unaware of the toxicity of pesticides.”
CARSON PLAYS SOUNDS OF THE OCEAN TO COMMENCE A SPEECH AT THE ASTOR HOTEL
John Lindsay inserts a Carson’s New Yorker piece into the Congressional Record
PESTICIDE RESIDUE ON FOOD + IN HUMAN BODY Considered "safe" to have 127 different pesticide residues on crops "everyday exposure to DDT leaves 1 in 10 parts per million in body tissue" - USA Toxicologist
emphasizes million, as if this number is negligable, but who watching CBS reports understand what 1 in 1o ppm means?
Counterculture The Whole Earth Catalog began in 1968 and officially ended in 1971, although Stewart Brand and others have continued to publish catalogs. In between the catalogs, supplements were published. The supplements revised mistakes, incorporated user feedback, and included events going on around the country. Brand continued to publish through the 1970’s with the CoEvolution Quarterly, a version of the supplements. The Quarterly was funded through the Point Foundation, a publishing company Brand began with the proceeds from the original Catalog. In the 80’s Brand began the Whole Earth Software review, a testament to his belief in tools and technology. In the 90’s, CoEvolution and Software were combined into the Whole Earth Review.
1970 The Outlaw Area Notably furthered Buckminster Fuller’s concept of outlaws
1974 The Updated Last Whole Earth Catalog The final issue of the catalog had Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. Written on the back cover. This was popularized by Steve Job’s famous commencement speach at Stanford University in 2005, available on YouTube.
1975 The Gaia Hypothesis Conceptions of the Earth as Gaia.
1975 O’Neill’s Space Colonies An issue of the CoEvolution Quarterly devoted to Gerard O’Neill’s ideas about space exploration. It begins with O’Neill’s essay “The High Frontier,” and an interview with Brand titled “Is the surface of a planet really the right place for an expanding technological civilization?”
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1968
1969
1970
1971
1974
1975
1980
All are available for download as PDF at wholeearth.com
Earth Day, 1970 The first Eath Day was the idea of Gaylord Nelson, in response to Santa Barbara oil spill in 1969. 20 million people participated. The events were led by Denis Hayes, one year out of Stanford, where he was student body president.
I found all of these pictures on the internet. It was fascinating to go through not only the pictures of protest but the images created. Even on the first Earth Day, cities created their own campaigns and posters that reflected different priorities, attitudes, and calls to action.
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Activism? Dystopia doomsday talk...
“The ultimate environmentalist argument would be to drop the conept of Nature + World, to cease identifying with them, to swear allegiance to coexistence with nonhumans without a World, without some nihilistic Noah’s Ark.”
1980
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bulbs were developed for use on board battleships. The same thing with refrigeration and desalinization plants, which the Navy has had for half a century.
1966 New Yorker So far, Fuller maintains, the newest technology has been applied principally to the development of military power, or weaponry, rather than to housing and education and other aspects of what he calls “livingry.”
“You see, it surprises people when you tell them that since the last ice age threequarters of the earth has been water, and that of the one-quarter that is land very little has been lived on. Ninety-nine per cent of humanity has lived on only about �ve per cent of the earth—a few little dry spots. Now, the law has always been applicable only to this �ve per cent of the earth, and anyone who went outside of it—the tiny minority that went to sea, for example—immediately found himself outside the law. And the whole development of technology has been in the outlaw area, where you’re dealing with the toughness of nature. I �nd this fascinating and utterly true. All improvement has to be made in the outlaw area. You can’t reform man, and you can’t improve his situation where he is. But when you’ve made things so good out there in the outlaw area that they can’t help being recognized, then gradually they get drawn in and assimilated. A good example of what I mean is going on right now in the space program. I’m on the advance-research team of ����, on a consultant basis, working with some very good people on this problem of how to keep man in space. Now, the real purpose of the space programs at the present time is simply to get the highest weapons advantage, and the side that gets it will rule the universe. This is greatly hidden from people by all the talk of getting to the moon, but the space platform, the military advantage, is really it. In order to maintain advantage in space, though, where there’s no atmosphere and no water and no sewer lines and no berries to eat, for the �rst time in history you have to look out for man. Not just for the weapon but for the individual. And this is really the most signi�cant part of the whole thing, as far as I’m concerned. Until now, making more effective weapons on earth never involved making life better for man. The little container that sustains man in space will actually be the �rst scienti�c house in history. Inadvertently, man is trying for the �rst time to learn how to make man a success. It’s inadvertent, but it’s being done.
T
he whole question of design initiative is central to Fuller’s vision of utopia. The initiative must be wrested from the military strategists by comprehensive designers, he says, if we are to escape destruction. And where are the comprehensive designers to come from? Despite his reservations about most modern architects, Fuller is convinced that the leaders of the great new technological revolution will come from the architectural profession, which, in an over-specialized age, is almost the only
Buckminster Fuller engineer, inventor, mathematician, architect, cartographer, philosopher, poet, cosmogonist, professor of “design science” Max Moinian 180606
R. Buckminster Fuller’s plan for a dome over Manhattan, 1961.
To achieve this utopia, Fuller proposes a worldwide technological revolution. Such a revolution would not be led by politicians, and, in fact, would take place quite independently of politics or ideology; it would be carried out primarily by what he calls “comprehensive designers,� who would coordinate resources and technology on a world scale for the bene t of all mankind, and would constantly anticipate future needs while they found ever-better ways of providing more and more from less and less.
Stewart Brand Creator of the Whole Earth Catalog,CoEvolution Quarterly, Long Now Foundation Max Moinian 180606
“So the Whole Earth Catalog is responsible for the colonization of space�
Stewart Brand, The Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility, 1999.
“The Colonization of Space” in CoEvolution Quarterly, 1974
By 2074, “more than 90% of the human population could be living in space colonies.” Earth would be left with . . . “few permanent residents. It would be a worldwide park, a beautiful place to visit for a vaction.”
“I am pointing out a realistic possibility” Gerard K. O’Neill, First Edition Cover, The High Frontier. 1977 Figure A-3: Gerard K. O’Neill, Possible Arrangement for the End Cap of a Model 1 Space Colony, c. 1974
Renowned high-energy particle physicist also?
Gerard O’Kneill Academic, scientist, writer, Brand-collaborator, contributor to the CoEvolution Quarterly and the Point Foundation Max Moinian 180606
1971 Point Foundation, “an activist arm” of the Whole Earth Catalog “Point was an active experiment fostering the design science revolution.” “A mechanism to promote revolution not through politics but by design.” Excerpt from Counterculture Green, by Andrew Kirk
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Film Stills, Merchants of Doubt (2014) Directed by Robert Kenner based on Naomi Oreskes’ and Eric M. Conway’s 2010 book by the same name.
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Film Stills, Merchants of Doubt (2014) Directed by Robert Kenner based on Naomi Oreskes’ and Eric M. Conway’s 2010 book by the same name.
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Film Stills, Merchants of Doubt (2014) Directed by Robert Kenner based on Naomi Oreskes’ and Eric M. Conway’s 2010 book by the same name.
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“Get the science out there, into the media, politicians will listen. We can solve this. . .
...so there is hope that, as the science continues to emerge, the public will become aware, and our political leaders will solve this problem. But that’s not what happened.”
Film Stills, Merchants of Doubt (2014) Directed by Robert Kenner based on Naomi Oreskes’ and Eric M. Conway’s 2010 book by the same name.
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“This is a debate, but this is not a scientific debate.”
“Climate is just a mechanism. It’s really about politics and political control... and control of economic means of production.”
Film Stills, Merchants of Doubt (2014) Directed by Robert Kenner based on Naomi Oreskes’ and Eric M. Conway’s 2010 book by the same name.
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You can buy scientific progress “by the tankful�
Advertisement, Shell Gasoline. 1941.
Digital Image, New York Times Headline. June 24th 1988.
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1988 It is already happening now
Climate Scientist Dr. James Hansen testifying in-front of Congress in 1988.
2/21/2018
The Hockey Stick: The Most Controversial Chart in Science, Explained - The Atlantic
the The Hockey Stick: The Most Controversial Chart in “hockey stick” Science, Explained graph
1998
Dr. Michael Mann, Global-scale temperature patterns IPCC Third Assessment Report/Wikipedia
and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature magazine, 1998.
Back in 1998, a little known climate scientist named Michael Mann and two colleagues published a paper that sought to reconstruct the planet's past Max Moinian 180606
2000 An Exxon Mobil advertisement titled “Unsettled Science� appeared in The New York Times in March 2000
2004
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ESSAY B E YO N D T H E I VO RY TOW E R This year's essay series highlights the benefits that scientists, science, and technology have brought to society throughout history.
The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change Naomi Oreskes
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1686
3 DECEMBER 2004
VOL 306
SCIENCE
climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point. This analysis shows that scientists publishing in the peer-reviewed literature agree with IPCC, the National Academy of Sciences, and the public statements of their professional societies. Politicians, economists, journalists, and others may have the impression of confusion, disagreement, or discord among climate scientists, but that impression is incorrect. The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong. If the history of science teaches anything, it is humility, and no one can be faulted for failing to act on what is not known. But our grandchildren will surely blame us if they find that we understood the reality of anthropogenic climate change and failed to do anything about it. Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics. The question of what to do about climate change is also still open. But there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. Climate scientists have repeatedly tried to make this clear. It is time for the rest of us to listen. References and Notes
1. A. C. Revkin, K. Q. Seelye, New York Times, 19 June 2003, A1. 2. S. van den Hove, M. Le Menestrel, H.-C. de Bettignies, Climate Policy 2 (1), 3 (2003). 3. See www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm. 4. J. J. McCarthy et al., Eds., Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001). 5. National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 2001). 6. American Meteorological Society, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 508 (2003). 7. American Geophysical Union, Eos 84 (51), 574 (2003). 8. See www.ourplanet.com/aaas/pages/atmos02.html. 9. The first year for which the database consistently published abstracts was 1993. Some abstracts were deleted from our analysis because, although the authors had put “climate change” in their key words, the paper was not about climate change. 10. This essay is excerpted from the 2004 George Sarton Memorial Lecture, “Consensus in science: How do we know we’re not wrong,” presented at the AAAS meeting on 13 February 2004. I am grateful to AAAS and the History of Science Society for their support of this lectureship; to my research assistants S. Luis and G. Law; and to D. C. Agnew, K. Belitz, J. R. Fleming, M. T. Greene, H. Leifert, and R. C. J. Somerville for helpful discussions.
Downloaded from http://science.sciencemag.org/ on April 17, 2018
olicy-makers and the media, particular- Academy of Sciences report, Climate ly in the United States, frequently assert Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key that climate science is highly uncertain. Questions, begins: “Greenhouse gases are Some have used this as an argument against accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a readopting strong measures to reduce green- sult of human activities, causing surface air house gas emissions. For example, while dis- temperatures and subsurface ocean tempercussing a major U.S. Environmental Pro- atures to rise” [p. 1 in (5)]. The report extection Agency report on the risks of climate plicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is change, then–EPA administrator Christine a fair summary of professional scientific Whitman argued, “As [the report] went thinking, and answers yes: “The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the through review, there was less consensus on Without substantial disagreement, observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to the science and conclu- scientists find human activities have been due to the insions on climate change” are heating the Earth’s surface. crease in greenhouse gas (1). Some corporations concentrations accurately whose revenues might be adversely affected by controls on carbon reflects the current thinking of the scientific dioxide emissions have also alleged major community on this issue” [p. 3 in (5)]. Others agree. The American Meteorouncertainties in the science (2). Such statements suggest that there might be substantive logical Society (6), the American Geodisagreement in the scientific community physical Union (7), and the American about the reality of anthropogenic climate Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent change. This is not the case. The scientific consensus is clearly ex- years concluding that the evidence for human pressed in the reports of the Inter- modification of climate is compelling (8). The drafting of such reports and stategovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Created in 1988 by the World ments involves many opportunities for Meteorological Organization and the United comment, criticism, and revision, and it is Nations Environmental Programme, IPCC’s not likely that they would diverge greatly purpose is to evaluate the state of climate sci- from the opinions of the societies’ memence as a basis for informed policy action, bers. Nevertheless, they might downplay primarily on the basis of peer-reviewed and legitimate dissenting opinions. That hypublished scientific literature (3). In its most pothesis was tested by analyzing 928 abrecent assessment, IPCC states unequivocal- stracts, published in refereed scientific ly that the consensus of scientific opinion is journals between 1993 and 2003, and listthat Earth’s climate is being affected by hu- ed in the ISI database with the keywords man activities: “Human activities … are “climate change” (9). The 928 papers were divided into six catmodifying the concentration of atmospheric constituents … that absorb or scatter radiant egories: explicit endorsement of the consenenergy. … [M]ost of the observed warming sus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigaover the last 50 years is likely to have been tion proposals, methods, paleoclimate due to the increase in greenhouse gas con- analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. Of all the papers, 75% fell into the centrations” [p. 21 in (4)]. IPCC is not alone in its conclusions. In first three categories, either explicitly or imrecent years, all major scientific bodies in plicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% the United States whose members’ expertise dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking bears directly on the matter have issued sim- no position on current anthropogenic cliilar statements. For example, the National mate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position. Admittedly, authors evaluating impacts, The author is in the Department of History and Science developing methods, or studying paleocliStudies Program, University of California at San Diego, matic change might believe that current La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. E-mail: noreskes@ucsd.edu
10.1126/science.1103618
www.sciencemag.org
Published by AAAS
Oreskes, N. (2004, December 03). The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Retrieved from http://science.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686
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Screen Shot 2018-05-02 at 11.37.25 PM 2005. Google search, “George Bush Doesn’t Care” shows Kanye West’s statement made during NBC’s “A Concert for Hurricane Relief” special, which aired live four days after Hurricane Katrina.
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NASA, Eugene Cernan on the lunar surface, December 13, 1972.
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“Heroism is successful foolishness; and is actual space travel anything but government- funded foolishness?” Fabien Reimann, Space Colonies
IF WE CAN land on the moon ten years after declaring a space race, WHAT CAN’T WE DO ? ? ?
The control of nature is a phrase conceived in arrogance, born of the Neanderthal age of biology and philosophy, when it was supposed that nature exists for the convenience of man.” Timothy Morton, Hyperobjects
Think Local Act G loba l Max Moinian 180606