Municipal Bonds: Staying the Course Usually Benefits Investors Market Commentary
October 2015
HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT SUCCESSFUL MARKET TIMING IS DIFFICULT, IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. Rising rates can spook bond investors, since rates and bond values are inversely related. As a result, investors sometimes sell following a sharp price decline, hoping to reinvest as the market recovers, effectively “selling low.” Analysis of the last three periods of municipal market volatility suggests that investors that stay the course may benefit from their patience.
Valuations Recovered within One Year We analyzed three periods where municipal yields “spiked,” meaning they increased by at least 100 basis points in less than one year. We examined the total return of hypothetical $100,000 portfolios held for 3-, 6-, and 12-month periods following the spike. While the portfolios experienced volatility, staying the course was ultimately rewarded. We looked at: ▪▪ SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER 2008: the credit crisis and associated liquidity challenges. ▪▪ OCTOBER 2010 TO JANUARY 2011: heavy supply in the tax-exempt and Build America
Bonds markets and elevated investor concerns over municipal defaults and bankruptcy due to an analyst’s prediction (which proved to be highly inaccurate).
Chris Barron Vice President, Client Portfolio Manager Nuveen Asset Management, LLC
▪▪ MAY TO SEPTEMBER 2013: Investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s announcement
to taper quantitative easing and the municipal market struggled due to elevated fund outflows, bankruptcy in the City of Detroit and concerns over Puerto Rico.
All three periods were marked by extreme negative investor sentiment and significant municipal bond fund outflows. In such environments, investors may make decisions based on emotion — rather than market fundamentals — that may conflict with longterm investment objectives. Within one year of each spike, cheap valuations led to increased investor demand and valuations became more in line with historical averages.
Leading the Way in Municipal Bonds Since 1898, Nuveen Investments has been a pioneer in municipal bonds, helping to build lasting value for investors. This municipal bond heritage is reflected in the way Nuveen Asset Management manages portfolios today.1 ▪▪ 117 years of experience ▪▪ 23 credit research analysts ▪▪ $102.2 billion in municipal bond AUM
1 Nuveen Investments, Inc.traces its history back to 1898. Nuveen’s asset management business was established in 1989. Nuveen Asset Management credit research analysts as of 9/30/15 and municipal fixed income assets under management as of 6/30/15. AUM is reported one quarter in arrears.
NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE
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